Are small insurances worth it?
Small insurances like phone insurance, tire insurance, etc. Are these worth it?
In general I always have a bad gut feeling about any insurance. I just don't like the idea of paying for stuff I never really use (especially medical insurance) But practically my phone COULD get lost, or a tire could hit a pothole, in which case insurance would've helped.
So in general, are small insurances worth it?
In pure game theory terms, taking out insurance is always a losing proposition - by which I mean on average people who take insurance lose money on it. Simplistically the amount you get back times the percentage chance of you needing it is always less than the premium, and you know this is true because insurance companies (who are very, very good at statistics) design it to be that way. After all, they do want to make a profit.
So why do people take insurance? It's about risk. You insure your house because, even though the chance of it being destroyed is very small, if it does happen (and you are not insured) it will impact your life in a major way. You might never recover financially from a loss like that. On the other hand the downside of taking insurance is just a few hundred bucks a month, which you can almost certainly afford (at least if you are rich enough to own a house). The same is true of most people's cars, and certainly of the liability insurance for a car, which can bankrupt you faster than losing a house. For medical insurance (if you are not in a country with universal healthcare) this is even more true - in the US most bankruptcies are because of medical bills.
If you decide to insure a small item, then you are on average going to lose money on it. And if you can easily afford to replace it, then you are not reducing your risk in any significant way, so there would appear to be no point. Most people who do this either do it because the statistics are not obvious to them, or because they psychologically feel better about not 'losing money' if something bad happens, even if it is a bad thing they can easily afford, and they are psychologically OK with spending small amounts of money on something that will probably do them no good.
It's probably also worth mentioning that companies love insurance for small items because not only to they make a profit each time it is taken out, but lots of people either forget they insured something when it breaks, or they can't be bothered to make the claim, or they can't find the paperwork. The company profits in every case.
Also be aware that all 'extended warranties' that cost you money are essentially insurance, just marketed in a different way.
TLDR: Insurance will lose you money on average, and the only benefit to insuring things you can afford to replace is to make you feel better.
An insurance is a gamble with the insurance company where you bet that something bad will happen to you and they bet that everything will be fine. The insurance company decides the odds for that bet, and they do that based on detailed analysis of a huge amount of statistical data. So you are betting against the house. If an insurance would be worth it from a cost/risk assessment in the long run, then no insurance company would offer it.
There are some circumstances the insurance company doesn't know which make your risk a lot higher than for most people (and not disclosing that fact isn't insurance fraud in this case).
The potential damage is so high that it wouldn't just be inconvenient to pay for it, it would completely ruin you. Any emergency you can pay out of your emergency fund isn't worth insuring against.
It's an insurance which is directly or indirectly subsidized by a 3rd party (government, employer...) making it a winning bet for both you and the insurance company.
So unless having to replace your phone out of your own pocket would be something you wouldn't be able to do or your personal lifestyle makes phone mishaps magnitudes more likely than for other people, it is likely not worth it.
Health insurance, on the other hand, is an insurance almost everyone should have if possible.
There are many medical problems which can happen to everyone and which generate costs which greatly exceed the emergency funds of most people.
When you need medical help, you are already in a situation where you feel extremely bad. You don't want to have an additional stress factor in form of worrying about how to pay for all the stuff the doctors do to you in order to help you.
Being able to go to the doctor whenever you feel you should without having to consider whether or not it's worth it can fix many medical problems before they become expensive (and painful).
*unfortunately there are some cases where legal requirement or contractual obligations force you to get an insurance even if you don't think it makes sense economically.
According to utility theory, one should adopt the strategy that maximizes one's expected utility. So when it comes to insurance, one needs to look at the probability of each scenario, and the utility of that scenario. For small amounts, utility and money can be treated as being close to proportional: losing $2 is about twice as bad as losing $1. But for larger amounts, it gets more complicated, and generally losing a large amount is larger loss of utility per dollar than a small loss. This is where insurance comes in: if you have a 1% chance of losing $100,000, then paying $1,100 to avoid that possibility may increase your expected utility, even though it decreases your expected money, if the loss of utility from losing $100,000 is more than 100 times the loss in utility in losing $1,100.
One method of modeling utility is to assume that it's proportional to the log of one's money. If we use the natural base, then going from $200,000 to $100,000 is a loss of 0.69 utils. If that has a 1% chance of happening, then the expected utility loss is 0.0069 Going from $200,000 to $198,900 is a loss of 0.0055 utils. So in this case, insurance increases your expected utility, since 0.0069 > 0.0055.
Now let's go through the above numbers, except with a loss of $100 instead of $100,000. Going from $200,000 to $199,900 is a loss of 0.0005 utils, so the expected loss is 0.0000050. If you have to pay $1.10 for insurance, that's a loss of 0.0000055 utils. So in this case, the insurance decreases your expected utility.
So whether insurance makes sense depends on how large a loss it is, how likely it is, how expensive the insurance is, and also personal factors such as how much money you currently have (if you have a billion dollars, the possibility of losing $100,000 isn't that big of a deal) and what your utility function/tolerance of risk is.
TLDR; If the item isn't expensive enough to be willing to put in so many hours of your time and effort, then just always skip it. If the item wouldn't cause a major financial hardship for you to replace, skip it.
The big problem with small insurances is they are in most places poorly regulated, and even when operating legally are doing so in a way that is "technically legal" but actively deceptive using small print and ridiculously time-consuming claim processes. This is a polite way of saying they are, 95%+ of the time, a total rip-off.
One example is a major retailer here in the US sold (and maybe still sells) insurance on air beds. A friend of mine bought it, thinking it was only a few dollars and air beds go bad all the time, so maybe this would be a good bet?
Naturally the air bed started leaking, and my friend asked for my help because the process didn't seem to make any sense, so I called up the company. The operator read out the exact requirements on the insurance and had trouble not laughing while doing so, because it was one of the most rediculous things I ever heard. To be covered the bed would need to be losing air through no visible rip or tear, not through a seam, and not through the inlet valve assembly.
...so how, pray tell, could any item actually be covered? One that loses air through some form of internal teleportation? They gave a small nervous laugh and said that basically, yes, that does seem like how it would need to happen.
Similarly I worked for a company that sold electronic insurance, and I got to talk to customers that did and did not get the insurance on the items to work for them. I always asked how the process went, and not a single one said that they needed to make less than 4 phone calls, usually waiting for half an hour or more each time, they kept their original receipt and sometimes even cut out the UPC code from the box, usually sent a few emails back and forth as well, and it took around 2-3 weeks to get a gift card back. And that was when the company agreed to cover the item in full.
The trick is, most people don't have that kind of free time or sheer force of will to collect on what amounts to usually under $100 of 'insurance'. I know of one single major US electronics retailer that offers a 'protection plan' that is actually worth the money and not a hassle, out of the dozens of companies with similar claims.
Another common trick is to sell insurance on an item, but it turns out the fine print says it only kicks in after the manufacturer period expires (usually 1-3 years), even if the insurance you bought was supposed to protect from things the manufacturer wouldn't cover regardless.
There are an infinite variety of clever ways these companies have developed to take advantage of people, engaging in rent-seeking behavior to increase their profits while providing no useful service to most or all of the people who buy their goods.
Add this reality together with the uncertain risk that you would need it at all, and you'll find that the vast majority of the time these things end up as losing propositions.
If the item you are looking at is considerably expensive enough to be a real burden if it has a problem - like a car, house, etc. - then you'll need to try to do some research to see if that particular option you have seems to operate in a legitimate way. Then you'll need to read the fine print, keep up with all required paperwork and documentation kept in a safe place, and if it comes to time that you need it be prepared and diligent because you will usually spend many hours on the phone and by email/website/letter to get what is owed you.
"Don't buy an insurance for what you can afford to get again; buy one for what you can't afford to lose."
Indeed, it's not only a question about the average cost (because statistically (and by design from insurance companies), it's never a good operation — as detailed in previous answers), but also if you can handle the event the accident happening. Because the long term doesn't matter if you're "game over" in the middle of the journey.
Note that it's not only about the cost of the tire itself, but, would you need the car to go to work, the cost of renting another car to go to work/don't work until the tire is fixed, etc.
So to answer your question, you should consider the full cost of a faulty tire (and this depends on your context), and then check if you can (or are ready to) support the consequences of this risk.
What you should also take into account, is the fact that your tire insurance can't be activated every time your tire is faulty (so you shouldn't over-estimate how likely you are to benefit from the insurance).
Plus the fact that you will not be reimbursed for all the costs of the incident: excess/deductible, sometimes the cost of having to pay upfront prior being reimbursed, the cost of your time filing up all paperwork, etc.
See also "Only Buy Insurance When You Can't Afford the Loss".
All insurance is a waste of money until you need it.
I don't spend money to insure the small stuff. Most of the time there's no problem and when there is, the replacement cost is reasonably inconsequential when you compare the insurance cost saved versus the cost of replacing the item.
Where the dividing line is between inconsequential and a painful expenditure to replace the item is a personal decision ($$$).
The example of a phone is great. We have 3 phones in our family. Say $800 each. And the $10/mo per phone insurance. $30/mo just for the insurance. 90% of claims are for cracked screens. If I set aside the $30, we could crack a screen every 3 months and avoid talking to the insurance department of our provider. I told my wife and daughter if they manage to do more than a screen crack, I'll give them back a prior model, and 10 mo penalty box. Then we get another new phone.
Given the nature of the question, I'd suggest finding a decent credit card with accident protection included as a perk. It will extend the seller coverage by up to a year. For many electronics, the full 2 years takes you the time when the value is 1/2 original cost anyway.
The simple way to evaluate insurance against an event is to look at 1) the potential loss if an event occurs, and 2) the probability of an event occurring.
With medical insurance, the odds are generally irrelevant because the potential loss is enormous. Very few people can afford to cover catastrophic medical expenses out-of-pocket.
With consumer insurance (phones, tires) it's a little less clear. If you broke your phone, could you afford to replace it (or if you couldn't, would you be willing to go without?). What are the odds that your phone will get broken? Once you have those numbers, you can determine if insurance is statistically worth it.
If your phone costs $500 and insurance costs $10/month, that means that in any given year they think the odds of you needing to replace your phone is about 24% ($120/$500). It's actually a little less since they bake in some profit to their rates. If you think the odds of you needing a new phone are higher, or you would absolutely need to replace your phone and can't afford $500, then buying insurance might make sense.
However, an alternative would be to just save the amount that you would put toward insurance in case one of these events occurs. That's called self-insurance. You can actually get away with saving less that the combined insurances you're offered, since the odds of multiple events happening are much lower. So if you save $50/month, and in one year have $600, then you can afford to either replace your phone or tires, but maybe not both. But the odds of both happening are much smaller. Plus if neither event happens, you don't need to save any more.
One aspect of some "small insurances" that I haven't yet seen mentioned is that certain kinds of insurance may provide one with advantages beyond the monetary value of the payout, although some of these may not be worth as much as they once were. For example, if someone who gets an unrepairable flat in an unfamiliar area is a member of a roadside-assistance plan, they would be able to call the phone number for the plan and immediately have a reliable service crew dispatched to them. In the days before people routinely had pocket web browsers, someone who was signed up with a plan could have help dispatched to them while someone who wasn't on the plan would still be trying to figure out who to call.
Finding towing service in a remote area is probably easier now in the days of pocket web browsers than it had been previously, but for people who are often victims of "choice paralysis" the peace of mind from knowing that they can just call one number and not have to worry about choosing a towing operator may be worth the cost of the insurance, whether or not towing fees would cause any particular hardship.
The very short answer is: No, small insurances are not worth it. The reason is called the calibration theorem.
If you accept a sure loss to remove a small risk (which is exactly what a cell phone insurance is), then under standard assumptions on rational behavior over gambles (von Neumann Morgenstern expected utility maximization), you will be committed to also reject huge potential profits for a medium risk. Think about drawing a curve that represents how much you value every dollar, every cent in terms of utility. This is what expected utility maximization tells you to do. If you make the function concave, you will be risk averse and in some cases want to buy insurance. The issue is that locally, this function will still be almost flat. But if the curve is approximately flat, you are approximately risk neutral and will therefore reject insurances over small risks.
As others have mentioned, insurance is geared toward risk aversion, and is best calculated in utility units.
Most rational adults choose to take insurance (consciously or otherwise) on a combination of relative utility of money versus relative risk aversion. Risk is 2 part in that it takes into account both the anticipation of a negative event (hereafter probability) versus the magnitude of that same event. Dropping my smartphone and totaling my car seem to be roughly similar in probability, but the magnitude of the events are vastly different (1k USD versus 6k USD replacement for the car, with a loss in utility for having a crappier car).
The biggest utility drop, however, happens when a negative event pushes your finances into insolvency, so it's a non-linear curve, with a 'kink' in it. The utility of the top 25% of my income is less than half of the utility of the second 25%, because losing more than 25% of my income would eat into savings as opposed to disposable income. The third 25% can be considered to hold all the remaining utility value, as even keeping the bottom 25% would not allow me to meet all my financial obligations for any serious period of time (therefore pushing me into bankruptcy or at least serious debt).
Therefore, assuming the insurance is the same percentage cost of the object be insured, and the negative event probability is identical, the value of insurance increases with the value of the item at a greater than 1:1 rate. replacing a $1000 phone is less harmful than replacing a $30000 car, and since I can afford the first and not the second, I may be inclined to forgo phone insurance and elect auto insurance, even if the auto insurance is a worse deal.
Additionally, 90+% of extended warranty/insurance plans cost more than they are likely to pay out. You are purchasing peace of mind and security against risk at a higher cost than replacement cost specifically because it allows you to pay that replacement cost incrementally. Spending $1000 10 months in the future is better than Spending $110 a month for 10 months, unless you need that $1000 before the 10 months are through.
The general answer to any "is it worth it" insurance question is "no," because the insurance company is making a profit on the insurance. However, that does not mean that insurance is always a bad idea or that insurance companies are cheating their customers.
When you buy any product from a business, that business is making a profit. And there is nothing wrong with that at all. They are providing a service and should be compensated for their efforts.
Insurance companies also provide a service, but unlike other types of businesses, their product is monetary. You pay them money now, and they might pay you money later. If they pay you more money then you spent, you came out ahead, and if you spend more money then they give you, it was a loss for you.
In order for the insurance company to make a profit, they need to bring in more money than they pay out. In fact, they need to bring in a lot more money then they pay out, because in addition to their profit, they have all the overhead of running a business.
As a result, on average, you will come out behind when you purchase insurance. This means that when you are on the fence about whether or not to purchase any insurance product, the default choice should be "no." On average, you are financially better off without insurance.
Now, that doesn't mean you should never buy insurance. Insurance companies spread risk across all of their customers. If I am in a situation where I have a risk of financial ruin in a certain circumstance, I can eliminate that risk by purchasing insurance. For example, I have term life insurance, because if I were to pass away, it would be financially catastrophic for my family. (I'm hoping that the insurance company makes 100% profit on that deal!) I also continue to buy expensive health insurance because an unexpected medical event would be financially devastating. However, I always decline the extended warranty when I buy a $300 appliance, because I don't have any trouble coming up with another $300 in the unlikely event that it breaks, and I would rather keep the money than contribute to the profits of an insurance company unnecessarily.
To decide if you want the insurance, you need to figure out how much you can afford to pay if something happens, how much they cover, and how badly you want to transfer your risk to them.
For small things like phone insurance, tire insurance, or other extended warranties, you need to decide how much trouble you would be in if you needed to replace the item you are insuring. If it would be terribly difficult for you financially to replace a phone that gets damaged, you could get the phone insurance. However, you need to keep in mind that it will most likely be costing you money, not saving you money. A better plan is to build up an emergency fund that can cover things like this, so that if you do happen to take your phone swimming you can afford to replace it.
Note: This answer is adapted from my answer on another question.
Insurance is a financial tool/product. You are buying a transfer of financial liability.
Generally speaking no matter what's being insured, if you have the financial means to self-insure, that's what you should do. If you're a billionaire, you don't need most insurance.
There are situations where the low level consumer type specific product lines of coverage are priced below their value particularly because there is no underwriting. Are you clumsy and work in a tough environment where you routinely drop your overly delicate cell phone breaking the screen? Yes? Then maybe the $84 per year insurance is worth it for you.
Is insurance always a bad deal? No. Does it matter that the sales person makes 50% of the cost in commission? No. It matters that you break your screen every 6 months, screens cost $150, there's no underwriting and the insurance costs $7 a month.
I'd rather put the $7 monthly insurance premium in to my own savings account and deal with the broken screen if it happens. As an aside, this is kind of the point of your emergency fund. You self insure some of these risks.
Other answers already cover the financial angle: You will lose money, on average - that's how insurance companies make money.
But there's something even more important: Insurance covering a $400 loss is worth less to you than $400.
First you have to find and read the paperwork.
Let's hope you're not on a business trip.
You need to document and file the claim.
Making photos of a broken phone can be tricky if your camera is that broken phone.
You need to wait until the claim is processed.
You may need to correct any mistakes they made, which may have lead to them mistakenly rejecting the valid claim.
You then have to wait for the payout to arrive.
Or do you need to pick it up? Let's hope you didn't move to a different state/country.
You'll need to accept the compensation, which might just be a refurbished outdated device you didn't actually want.
Buy a new one. Or a used one. Or don't replace it. It's up to you.
Insurance is for things you can't easily afford to replace/pay on your own.
Insurance is a complete waste of money. You would be better off making a bet at a roulette wheel. For example, a straight up bet on a roulette table is has 35:37 odds, which means the net present value of $100 of that bet is about $94. In other words you lose about $6 out of every $100 bet straight up. By comparison, most insurance policies have payoff odds of about 1:16, which means for every $100 you spend on insurance your net present value is about $6 dollars and you lose $94. If that sounds crazy bad, it's because it is. It is pure stupidity to buy insurance. You would be better off burning your money, because at least you would have the fun of watching the fire.
Where I used to live in Massachusetts $100,000 (the bank-required minimum) of fire insurance costs about $800 per year. (The insurance company discounts it to $650 the first year to trick you into buying it, then raises rates starting in year 2). The chance of a house burning down is about 1 in 2000 (actual statistic). Therefore, the average value of such a policy per year is $50 ($100,000 / 2000). Since, the cost of the policy is $800 per year, it is obvious the scale of waste.
Also, the replacement cost of the typical house in the area is $400,000 so people with $100,000 policies are just fooling themselves. If they actually took insurance seriously (LOL), then they would need $400,000 to replace the house plus $50,000 for living expenses while the house is being rebuilt. To buy $450,000 in fire insurance in my area would cost about $3,000 per year. People will not usually pay $3,000 per year for fire insurance on the typical white collar take home pay of $75,000. So, they just mentally pretend that they are "covered" by their $100,000 policy, which they are not. Of course, for those whose house actually burns down, they swiftly find that the legal fees and other costs eat up that $100,000 pretty fast. The reality is that there are far better uses for $800 per year than spending it on insurance. People who buy insurance voluntarily are essentially buying a psychological product, not a financial product. They have fear and the insurance makes the fear go away, but from a financial standpoint it just decreases their net worth.
Is insuring property for more than it is worth allowed?
At what point does it become worth it to file an insurance claim?
Are wage loss insurance programs worth the cost compared to having an emergency fund?
Which types of insurances do I need to buy?
Why many travel insurances don't cover country of nationality?


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Sundays 8:00 PM on BBC One
Season 10 "Fastest Way Across London" 10x5
Aired 14 years ago - Nov 11, 2007
The guys race each other using a bike, a boat and a car, to find the fastest way across London. The Stig drives the Caparo T1 in an attempt to beat the long-standing fastest time set by the Koenigsegg. Richard regains the will to live by racing an Aston Martin V8 Vantage Roadster against a man with rockets strapped to his back. Simon Cowell is the Star in a Reasonably Priced Car.
Not much in it and nothing you I mean, look at that
It...
God above, I thought that was one of the teachers!
'All we needed was a challenge.'
With my budget of £0, I'd fitted a girl-enticing water bed in the back.
'While he went for a wee, Richard and I decided to improve his car
MUSIC CONTINUES TO THUD
"all their camping equipment and stuff into their car
'Happily, I wasn't the only one who'd be in trouble.
they won't pay out.
We were going along and all of a sudden, he hit the dashboard
surrounded by sheep that were no longer alive and bits of what used to be my mum's Audi.
the other is a totalitarian regime,- allegedly making weapons of mass destruction.
Everyone had said it's superbike fast and I thought, "Oh, come on, don't be ridic...argh!"
You know Vauxhall? Yes. Canadian company now.
made by any car is my Mercedes - which is now only 19 days away from- its first service,
I'm sorry, but this sort of gutter press claptrap gets so far up my nose.
'the brand-new Lamborghini Murcielago.'
Whoa. You've just met the Lamborghini Murcielago LP670-4 SV,
'So, LP670-4 SV.'
'They've also taken away the radio,- but that's fine by me.'
"a distinctive 12-cylinder sound from the two trapezoidal tailpipes."
but it's so light and nimble on its feet. Sand!
'in a race between the lights.'
That is a truly ridiculous game.
Thing is though, you've always said- that your favourite supercar is the Zonda F, OK?
because, as Richard said, the lightweight SV has no stereo
OK. Here we go.
For example, I've just had Tim Robbins in my ear
I finished the American thing last year
If he'd tried that in Australia! Oh, yes!
you'll see it on your way home,
where you can play it as a reco... Have you got that?
And of course you came down here to do a lap.
That's courage!
My word! It's hot too and I can't even claim it's wet
That means that you've beaten Jimmy- Carr, you've beaten Brian Cox.
LAUGHTER He'll never know.
and get up the drive at three o'clock in the morning...
50.4 decibels, that's like custard rustling, absolutely soundless.
I might get in trouble.
'Then it was my turn.'
Can you smell smoke on my fingers? THEY LAUGH
Well, hopefully... This had better be good.
'With the roof done, I now have to sort the bonnet.'
There were no fires in Surrey -
Report problem with "Top Gear" episode 10x5

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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text:
Cyclamen Ridge is a ridge in Alberta, Canada.

Cyclamen Ridge takes its name from the cyclamen flower.

References

Ridges of Alberta

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3MATCH URL: https://assets.rappler.com/4251F13EF297464585F714A9E0071C27/img/83511519A27545DB8115B510BEDE8C48/20191118-ramon-satellite-11pm.jpg
#WeatherAlert
Ramon now a typhoon, set for landfall in Cagayan
Signal No. 3 is raised in the northern part of Cagayan late Monday evening, November 18, as Ramon (Kalmaegi) strengthens into a typhoon
Acor Arceo
What's the weather like in your area? Tweet us at @rapplerdotcom.
Satellite image of Typhoon Ramon (Kalmaegi) as of November 18, 2019, 11 pm. Image from NOAA
MANILA, Philippines – Ramon (Kalmaegi) intensified from a severe tropical storm into a typhoon late Monday evening, November 18, shortly before its expected landfall.
In a briefing past 11 pm on Monday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Ramon now has maximum winds of 120 kilometers per hour (km/h) from the previous 110 km/h and gustiness of up to 150 km/h from the previous 135 km/h.
The typhoon is already 135 kilometers east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan, or 145 kilometers east southeast of Calayan, Cagayan. It is moving northwest at the same slow pace of 10 km/h.
Ramon could make landfall either in Santa Ana, Cagayan, or in the Babuyan Group of Islands – an archipelago also part of Cagayan province – between Monday evening and Tuesday morning, November 19.
In Santa Ana, at least 445 individuals or 111 families have evacuated as of 9:49 pm on Monday, according to the Philippine Information Agency-Cagayan Valley, citing municipal authorities.
Signal No. 3 has now been raised, in addition to Signal Nos. 1 and 2. Here is the latest list of areas under tropical cyclone wind signals:
Signal No. 3 (winds of 121 km/h to 170 km/h)
northern part of Cagayan (Santa Praxedes, Claveria, Sanchez Mira, Pamplona, Abulug, Ballesteros, Aparri, Calayan, Camalaniugan, Buguey, Santa Teresita, Gonzaga, Santa Ana)
Signal No. 2 (winds of 61 km/h to 120 km/h)
rest of Cagayan
northern part of Isabela (Sta Maria, San Pablo, Maconacon, Cabagan, Sto Tomas, Quezon, Delfin Albano, Tumauini, Divilacan)
lIocos Norte
Signal No. 1 (winds of 30 km/h to 60 km/h)
rest of Isabela
Ramon will continue to bring rain, which may trigger flash floods and landslides. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)
Monday evening, November 18, to Tuesday morning, November 19
Moderate rain with occasional to frequent heavy rain
Cagayan, including Babuyan Group of Islands
northern part of Ilocos Norte
Light to moderate rain with intermittent heavy rain
rest of Ilocos Norte
Tuesday afternoon to evening, November 19
Light to moderate rain with occasionally heavy rain
northern part of Cagayan, including Babuyan Group of Islands
Some areas have suspended classes for Tuesday. (READ: #WalangPasok: Class suspensions, Tuesday, November 19, 2019)
Travel also remains risky, especially for small vessels, in the seaboards of areas under tropical cyclone wind signals, the western seaboard of Northern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon.
Ramon could leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early Thursday, November 21. By then, it would have likely weakened into a tropical depression or a low pressure area (LPA) already.
Ramon is the Philippines' 18th tropical cyclone for 2019, and the 2nd for November.
Forecast track of Typhoon Ramon (Kalmaegi) as of November 18, 2019, 11 pm. Image from PAGASA
Meanwhile, the LPA outside PAR is now 1,210 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas. It is expected to enter within 24 hours and may develop into a tropical depression within 48 hours.
If it becomes a tropical depression and enters PAR, it would be given the local name Sarah. (READ: LIST: PAGASA's names for tropical cyclones in 2019)
The country gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually, but since 2019 is an El Niño year, only 14 to 18 tropical cyclones are expected.
Below is the estimated number of tropical cyclones for the last two months of 2019:
November - 1 or 2
December - 0 or 1
PAGASA declared the start of the rainy season last June 14. – Rappler.com
Filed under:#RamonPH•LPA•PAGASA forecasts•Philippine weather 2019•Philippine weather for November 2019•Typhoon Kalmaegi•Typhoon Ramon•low pressure area•typhoons in the Philippines•#WeatherAlert


* For more detailed information at the manufacturer's site check please.
You may take one month or more before delivery usually 2-5 days after dispatch, inventory maker is not.
Depending on the timing of when you order is out of stock. Please be forewarned.


Drum sampling pad, 9 Pads (with LED Indicators), 20 Voices, Two external trigger inputs are provided, allowing you to connect up to four Pads.
The Roland SPD-SX Sampling Pad puts powerful sample creation and playback under your sticks with innovative audio-capturing features, expressive playability, three multi-effects engines, and much more. The perfect addition to any acoustic or electronic drum kit, percussion setup, DJ booth, or keyboard rig, the SPD-SX is equally at home on the live stage, in the recording studio, pre-production suite, or dance club.
Built-in Pads: 9 (with LED Indicators) Two external trigger inputs are provided, allowing you to connect up to four Pads.
Maximum Polyphony: 20 voices Maximum polyphony becomes 16 voices according as an operating state.
Number of Recordable Wave Data: 10,000 Including preload wave data.
Sampling Time (Total time for all wave data): Approx. 180 min. in stereo (360 min. in mono) Since the internal memory included with the SPD-SX contains preload data, the available sampling time will be less than the time above.


text:
BICAM APPROVES P100B COCO LEVY TRUST FUND – VILLAR
Post author By Hazel Chua
No Comments on BICAM APPROVES P100B COCO LEVY TRUST FUND – VILLAR
The bicameral conference committee on the bill creating the P100 billion coconut levy trust fund has reconciled the disagreeing provisions on the versions of the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Senator Cynthia Villar, chairperson of the Senate Committee on Agriculture and Food and head of the Senate panel, said the bicameral conference committee on the disagreeing provisions of Senate Bill 1233 and House Bill 5745 or the Coconut Farmers and Industry Development Act has adopted a reconciled version of the bill which will be submitted for ratification by both houses of Congress.
"Today marks the end of the long and grueling journey of enacting a law which will ensure the full utilization of the coco levy funds. This symbolizes a new beginning for all our 3.5 million coconut farmers and their families," Villar said.
"This symbolizes a new beginning for all our 3.5 million coconut farmers and their families."
"This will serve as a foundation of our future in our continued quest for sustainable development, poverty alleviation and food security. Our farmers have long waited for the moment where they could enjoy the funds which are rightfully theirs," the veteran legislator added.
The Coconut Farmers and Industry Development Act was among the priority legislative measures pushed by President Rodrigo Duterte during his State of the Nation Address last July 23.
The Nacionalista Party senator said the bill "includes provisions that would safeguard the approximately P100 billion coconut levy funds composed of cash and assets and ensure increased income for all coconut farmers such as investment of the trust fund in Philippine government securities to ensure the safety of the fund and for assured returns."
The fund will be managed by the reconstituted Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA) which will be composed of one representative from the PCA, Department of Finance, Department of Agriculture, Department of Budget and Management, one coconut industry stakeholder and six coconut farmers with two representatives each from Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
"Gusto namin reconstituted PCA para isang overhead na lang. Kasi mahirap iyong maraming committee, maraming gastos. So sini-simplify namin iyong management, para less ang overhead para lahat ng pera mapupunta for the benefit of the coconut farmers," the seasoned lawmaker told reporters after the meeting of the bicam committee.
Instead of setting a fixed term on the life of the fund, both panels have agreed to allow the fund to exist until it runs out. The panel has also allocated P5 billion as the amount to be spent from the coco levy fund yearly. This is on top of the automatic appropriation of not less than P10 billion to the annual budget of the PCA which will be sourced from the General Appropriations Act.
The P5 billion fund will be spent for the following programs: shared facilities (30 percent), scholarship program (15 percent), empowerment of coconut farmer organizations and their cooperatives (15 percent), farm improvement to encourage self-sufficiency (30 percent) and health and medical benefits (10 percent).
The P10 billion allocated by the national government will be spent for the development of the coconut industry. This will be earmarked for the following programs: infrastructure (20 percent), planting, replanting and establishment of nurseries (20 percent), intercropping (10 percent), shared facilities (20 percent), research and development, disease control and eradication (10 percent), fertilization (5 percent), new products and derivatives of cococut oil products (5 percent) and credit through Land Bank of the Philippines and Development Bank of the Philippines (10 percent).
During the bicam meeting, the lady senator was joined by Sen. Francis Pangilinan in the Senate panel while the contingent from the House of Representatives was composed of Reps. Jose Panganiban Jr., Danilo Suarez, Arthur Yap, Sharon Garin, Celso Lobregat, Manuel Sagarbarria, Edcel Lagman, Evelina Escudero, Angelina Helen Tan and Cecilia Leonila Chavez.
"I am optimistic that by the passage of this bill, our coconut farmers will not be left behind with the changing times and would be empowered to push through towards the next century," Villar concluded
"By the passage of this bill, our coconut farmers will not be left behind with the changing times and would be empowered to push through towards the next century."
Tags bicam, Coc Levy Trust Fund, Coconut farmers, Senator Villar
← DON'T PULL OUT AMBULANCES, GO AFTER ERRING LOCAL EXECS – NOGRALES → MAKE CHECK-UPS, LAB TESTS AND MEDICINES FREE FOR ALL FILIPINOS – ANGARA


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Christmas is coming. Twinkly lights come on and the air smells like ginger and cinnamon.
But in the kitchen, when it's morning, you can always smell the scent of coffee. It's the scent that sends out a good morning.
And for this Christmas, to send out a good morning, there are also the coffee cans designed by Nerodiseppia for Caffè Vergnano 1882.
A Christmas Edition made of memories, colors and tradition. And some little illustrations.


Tall dark and beautiful meets tall dark and handsome! Brick Chapel Shilohs and High Caliber Shilohs are excited to announce the pairing of NS briCH Brk Chapels Tempted By Delyla, TT, CGC and MBIS GrCH rbsCH High Caliber's Mountain Majesty, TT, CGC, TDI. This pairing will bring together third generation Orbit and foundation lines to produce pups that are 4th gereration Orbit or full Shiloh.
Delyla is a striking dark brown sable with great height and bone. She has a fun-loving personality and has always been a fast learner, earning her Canine Good Citizen award at 5 months of age. Delyla enjoys agility, herding, and off leash obedience. She is an extremely sweet, talkative girl who likes to give hugs and kisses to all her humans. She is my constant companion and my best friend. In addition to earning her CGC Delyla has passed her adult temperament test and has earned several champion titles as well as a National Select with the TSSR.
Colby is High Caliber's pride and joy, embodying all that a Shiloh should be. He has nice structure and proportions, a beautiful long and full tail and an absolutely fabulous head. He loves to play ball and go for rides in ATVs :-) To top it all off, Colby has the sweetest temperament, being a happy and playful boy, yet ready to protect his family should the need arise. He has beautiful, effortless movement that has earned him a multitude of conformation show awards, including two National Selects, championships with his registry and breed club, and a Supreme Grand Championship with the International Canine Kennel Club. He has also attained certifications for adult Temperament Testing, Canine Good Citizen, and Therapy Dogs International.
We expect the Delyla & Colby pairing to produce some wonderful pups both in conformation and temperament. Height and bone should be outstanding. Nice heads and great pigment will also be prominent in the litter. This litter would be a good place to look for a therapy or assistance prospect.
Puppies will be plush coated sables with a variety of colors possible.


text:
The Missing Fish: A Teri Cole Watergardening Mystery
By Robyn Rhudy.
Copyright 2003 Robyn Rhudy. All rights reserved. This book cannot be reproduced without permission from the author. This book is an original work of fiction. Any resemblance to people, events, or organizations is purely coincidental. With the exception of Ellicott City, Maryland and Colorado Springs, Colorado, any resemblance to places is purely coincidental. There are no koi clubs near Ellicott City.
This is a fiction mystery story that I wrote. I never got past the first chapter but decided to put it on-line 5/25/05. I did not earlier because I thought I might finish it or someone could steal it but this book is as dead as its characters.
Chapter 1: And Heron Makes Two
Chapter 2: Oh Where Oh Where Have My Fish Gone
Chapter 3: The Mystery
Chapter 4: Pond Genies
Chapter 5: The Dead Librarian
Chapter 6: Overload
Chapter 7: Chessie
Teri Cole = the main character, 34-years-old, 140 pounds, single, moved from Colorado Springs to Ellicott City (Zone 7), installed a 3000 gallon koi pond, works at the library.
Bruno = Teri's male dog, Rottweiler and Labrador Retriever Mix, 75 pounds.
Fred and Ethel = Teri's two goldfish, 8 and 10 ounces.
Michael Lero = Teri's boss at the library, 42-years-old, 220 pounds, brown hair, brown eyes.
Herb Bryce = owner of Pond Genies pond maintenance service.
Carly Jones = Teri's neighbor, 8-year-old girl.
Paul Jones = Carly's father, 32-years-old, 190 pounds, 6 feet tall, divorced, computer programmer.
Great Blue Heron = himself, eater of yummy fish.
Tim Brady = member of local koi club who helped Teri build her pond.
Alice Cole = Teri's mother.
Dave = Teri's ex-boyfriend.
Suzie Frazier = Teri's friend, 35-years-old, married with one daughter and one son.
Joe Tucker = Herb's partner at Pond Genies.
Teri had just about had enough. Bruno wasn't sitting still! How was she supposed to clean out his ears while he was dancing all around. "Ow, stop it!" Bruno slammed his 75 pound frame into Teri's 140 pound body, knocking her over. "Come on, boy, just one more second, I promise!"
It was hard to imagine that just a year before, Teri was in a different world. She was happy living in Colorado Springs with Bruno and a 50 gallon tank with her goldfish, Fred and Ethel. Then, she got a call from a lawyer. Her great aunt, Charlotte had left her her home and $10,000. For Teri, who was struggling to make ends meet working as a filing clerk, this was a dream come true. So, she moved from her small apartment overlooking Pikes Peak (which she had managed to hike up once) to a half-acre lot in Ellicott City, Maryland. Bruno, of course, came along. Teri had found him at a Denver animal shelter a few years ago. They said he was a Rottweiler but he seemed a bit peculiar to her. Perhaps he was part Labrador Retriever. Bruno was the most frisky puppy in the litter. "Ok, you're done, my sweet monster!"
It was time to go to work. Since moving to Ellicott City, Teri's days had been jam-packed with excitement. Two weeks after moving, she was offered a job as a librarian at the new Waverly Branch. She readily took it and seemed to be enjoying her new life. Teri put on a new sweater as the one she was wearing was now covered in dog hair and ear cleaner. After putting herself together, she greeted the crisp morning of a day in September. Before getting in her car, she had to grab a peek at her pond. The pond was her pride and joy. Where else would she spend her $10,000?
Ever since she got her red and white comets Fred and Ethel in their spacious 50 gallon tank, she had shown an interest in having a pond, at least for them. One day a year before moving, she starting searching the internet for pond information. Teri learned that both her goldfish were male as they had tubercles or white bumps on their gill covers. Teri also became hooked on koi ponds. She so much wanted to have such beautiful fish but her wish was financially out of reach. As soon as she saw her new 50-year-old home which had been nicely repaired recently but with a messy yard, she knew she had her work cut out for her. Teri had the inspiration to replace the back lawn with a real koi pond. She already had the fantasy plans from before so she only had to find a way to do it.
"Bye, bye Bruno!" Teri hopped into her 1994 Pontaic Sunfire and pulled out of her hole-ridden asphalt drive. On the way to work, she wondered what she might expect from her superior today. Michael Lero was ten years older than her and twice her size but what bothered her the most about him was that he always got a little too close to her while she was trying to work. He was virtually on top of her. His cologne gave her a headache. She pulled into the library a little before 8 am. Sneaking past where Mike usually worked, she hoped to avoid him first thing.
"Hey, Ter, how ya doing?" "I'm fine Mike." He gave her the once over. "And how's that dog of yours and his problem?" "Bruno is fine. His swimmer's ear is almost gone." Mike grimaced. "You know if you didn't have that darned pond, your mutt wouldn't have an ear problem. He must want to eat your fish." Teri was tired of this. "I don't want to argue over it. Do you need me to file those books over there?" Mike huffed and sent her on her way to shelve some books. This was the part of the job that Teri relished the most when she was all by herself. Since she had been working there almost a year, she now knew almost every book it seemed. Normally, the high school kids would shelve books but school was back in session.
After filing some books and tidying up, the doors opened for the day. Today, Teri was working behind the reference desk. "Excuse me, Miss. The copier isn't working." Teri helped the gentleman remove the jammed paper from the machine. "Oh, you're copying some pages from a book on ponds?," queried Teri. "Yeh, I am in the pond maintenance business," replied the man. "Really, I have a large koi pond myself! My name's Teri Cole." "Hi, I'm Herb Bryce. I run Pond Genies. Maybe you might need my services some time?" Teri did all her own maintenance. "No thanks, I clean my own pond."
Herb was finished copying. "Ok, but here's my business card if you ever change your mind. What kind of pond do you have?" Teri was used to reciting her pond's attributes. "It's a 3000 gallon koi pond with three show-quality koi that are about 16 inches long and about 30 goldfish. Water comes in by two bottom drains and a skimmer. It goes to a vortex, a brush filter, and a UV light and then to a 500 gallon vegetative filter over a waterfall into the main pond." "Wow, sounds like a good setup," Herb replied. They chatted a few more minutes before Herb left.
The rest of the day, Teri spent helping an elderly lady find a book on crochet and then fielded the teenagers coming in with their first assignments for the new school year. She also helped interview a few of them to work part-time after school. Mike left her alone most of the day, for which she was grateful. Finally, at six o'clock, Teri headed home. She picked up a pizza for dinner and filled up her gas tank. This was a pretty good day.
Teri opened the front door and was greeted by Bruno who really had to go. Normally, she has her eight-year-old neighbor, Carly Jones, walk him after school but she was at a girl scout meeting this afternoon. Teri put down the pizza and headed out back with Bruno.
"Oh, my God! Get away, shoo!" The bird had one of her prized koi in its mouth! Bruno started barking and pulled away from her. The great blue heron dropped the koi and flew to a tree in the neighbor's yard. "Oh, no, my Showa!" Her Showa koi was partially gutted. Bruno was running around, trying to reach the heron through the fence. The heron flew off. Teri started to cry. Her 3000 gallon pond only had three koi in it, a Kohaka, a Sanke, and the now-dead Showa. These were expensive fish. She had been lucky to get them for a reduced price from Tim Brady, an Ellicott City Koi Club member who had helped her build the pond.
Teri composed herself and dug a hole to bury her koi. Then, she pulled out the leaf net she had been planning to put on the pond in a few weeks. She was going to put it on now to prevent another death by heron. Before putting on the net, she pulled out some of the excess water celery from her vegetative filter. The net was a pain to put on but she was trying.
"Need some help?" Teri shot up, surprised by the sound. It was Carly's father, Paul. "Yeh, sure, just come through the front gate." Paul and his daughter met Teri when she was having the koi pond built. He was a few years younger than her, divorced, tall, dark, and handsome. His job as a computer programmer allowed him to afford the new nice house next to hers.
Paul came in through the gate a few minutes later. Bruno jumped up on him. "Get down, Bruno. Hi, Paul. A heron just ate my Showa." "That's one of the multi-colored koi, right?," asked Paul. "That's right; I'm glad you remembered." Paul helped Teri position the leaf net over the pond and anchor it with plastic pins and rocks. Even though the sun was setting, it was a warm night, and Teri noticed Paul sweating. When they were done, they sat down next to each other and rested a few minutes.
Then, Teri remembered, "Shoot, I forgot about my dinner! I got pizza, and it's probably cold by now!" "I like cold pizza," Paul said. "Do you want to join me?," Teri said, hoping he would agree. "No, I have to go pick up Carly. I'll tell her about your fish. I'm sure she'll want to come pay her condolences." Paul almost laughed but instead just smiled at Teri as he got up to leave. Bruno escorted him to the gate. Teri went inside and tried to eat some cold pizza but couldn't take it. She tried microwaving it but that just made it slimy. After eating a few pieces, she gave one to Bruno who smeared the tomato sauce on the linoleum. "What am I going to do with you?"
The phone rang. "Hello?" "Hi, honey, it's your mom. How are you?" Teri was starting to feel nauseous from the pizza. "I'm fine mom. Except, a heron ate one of my koi." "Oh, poor baby! Teri have you met anyone yet? You know how much I want a grandchild!" Teri winced. "No mom, I'm still too busy with settling in." "What are you talking about," her mother asked, "You've been living there for a year." Teri wanted to rest but needed to satisfy her mother enough to get her off the phone. "Mom, I'm still getting over Dave so give me some more time, okay?" After a few more exchanges, Teri finished on the phone. She went to relax and watch some TV but fell asleep. She had a nightmare that her pond was pumped dry overnight, and her fish were left flopping on the bottom but that Paul came to the rescue.
The next day, Teri checked on the pond and all was well. She fed and walked Bruno and headed off to work. It began to drizzle. Arriving at work, Teri found that Mike was busy. The pile of paper work on her desk was calling her. She tried to get some work done but Teri started to daydream about her pond and then Paul. The phone ringing woke her up.
"Hello, this is Teri Cole. May I help you?" "Hi, Ter, it's Suzie-Q here! Guess what?" The caller was Teri's best friend from Colorado. "Hi, Suzie. How are you?" asked Teri. "I'm doing great. You'll never guess where I am right now!" Teri had no idea. "Where are you Suzie, getting a manicure?" "Of course not! I'm in Baltimore and want to come see you," exclaimed Suzie. "Really?! That's great! Did you bring the kids?" "Nope, it's a business trip. I can't wait to see you!" Teri and Suzie talked for half an hour about their lives and decided that Suzie would take a taxi to Teri's house and meet here there after work. Teri called her other neighbor who was retired and had her spare key to let Suzie into the house.
Now that her best friend was coming for a visit, Teri couldn't concentrate on work at all. Mike sneaked up on Teri. "Hey, Teri. How are you today?" Teri jumped in her chair. Mike seemed to have improved his attitude. "Hi, Mike. My Showa died, " Teri answered. "Did you call the plumber?" "Showa Mike, a type of koi, not shower!," Teri yelled in frustration. "Okay, okay, don't get your pants tied in a bundle, " Mike retorted. "I don't know what I'm going to do if something happens to my other two koi," said Teri.
Teri had to keep busy or she'd go crazy. The place was empty so she decided to find a book to read. Like most of us, when given the opportunity, she will avoid working. She found a book on Feng Shui. It was hard for her to understand but yet simple. Understanding the content required her to really concentrate which got her mind off of Suzie and Paul. Feng Shui is the "Chinese art and science of living in harmony and being at one with nature." It says that there is a relationship between water, earth, rocks, and other natural entities as they relate to space and form in your home and garden. There were a few photos of oriental gardens and ponds that gave her a few ideas. Her pond could use a pagoda.
Teri went out to an Italian restaurant for lunch which was a rare treat but kept her from going insane on this day. Finally, it was time to go home.
...[Section not finished.]
"Teri, why don't you have any fish in your pond?" queried Suzie. "What are you talking about? I've got two large fish in there," Teri responded. "I didn't see any fish in there." Teri ran out the back door to the pond. The pond was empty. The fish were gone. Teri started screaming and cursing. Her first thought was the heron but the net was still on and secured in place. The fish had simply vanished. Teri crumpled to her knees and started to cry.
Chapters 3 and 4 were not written at all.
...[Section never written].
Teri arrived at work on Tuesday. It was awfully quiet. She went to ask Mike what she could do today even though she really didn't want to do any work. Arriving at his office, he was sitting in his chair, facing away from her. "Mike, what do you want me to do?" she asked. He didn't answer. "Mike?" Teri went around to face him. He stared blankly at her. There was a red hole in the middle of his head. "Oh, God, no! Mike!" She ran from the room, scared to death. Teri ran across the street to the senior center. After much babbling, they figured out that someone was dead and called 911. There wasn't much they could do though. Mike was dead.
[The remaining chapters were never written but I know who stole the fish and killed Mike! Do you? Well, probably not since I never fleshed it out! Anyway, I might as well give it away. Mike stole the fish. Herb killed Mike.]
A Potential Sequel to The Missing Fish:
The Green Frog: A Teri Cole Watergardening Mystery
Chapter 1: It's a Green Frog
What kind of frog is it?" "It's a green frog." "I know it's green but which species is it?" "That's the name of the species, the green frog, Rana clamitans , " explained Teri. "Oh, okay, " said Celeste Montagne. Teri had been studying up on all facets of pond keeping over winter in preparation for spring ever since joining the Pond Genies company. She and her boss, Joe, were at Mrs. Montagne's watergarden to do a spring cleaning.
The pond was about 2000 gallons with lots of plants that needed to be repotted. Teri was envious of those with plants in their ponds. Her pond was dedicated to her six prize koi. Joe lugged pots of water lilies, sweetflag, lizard tail, and water lilies to the side of the pond which Teri lifted out. They both repotted them into fresh 2 gallon pots with clay dirt, a few plant fertilizer pills, and topped with fresh pea gravel. Celeste had told them they could take the extra marginals.
...[Section never written.]
Teri went inside to ask Celeste if she wanted to save all of the excess water lily rhizomes from the repottings. Unfortunately, she wasn't going to answer. She was laying on her stomach in the foyer with a knife sticking out of her back. On the floor next to her sat a figurine, of a green frog.
Last updated: 5/27/05.