A Little Chronic Deflation - John Mauldin's Outside the Box - Investment Strategies, Analysis & Intelligence for Seasoned Investors.
One of the questions I (and other analysts) get asked most frequently is whether I think there is deflation or inflation in store for the US. My quick answer is "Yes." A brief answer is that we are in a deflationary period and have been for over 30 years, but like all cycles it will come to an end. A great deal of the "when" depends on how the US deals with its deficit following the election. If we put the US on a realistic glide path to a balanced budget (over time) then that deflationary impulse will last longer than most observers think, even given QE3+++. If we do not deal with the issue, and try once again to kick the can to the next election, inflation could be a very real problem.
But one of the definitive experts on the question, and someone who has taught me a great deal over the years, is Dr. Gary Shilling, who has literally written the book (several, actually) on deflation. This week he summarizes a recent client letter for our Outside the Box, and I think you'll will find stimulating. His is not the consensus view, but it's one we need to understand.
You can subscribe to Gary Shilling's Insight for the special introductory rate of $275 for Outside the Box readers (email delivery) and get a copy of the full Insight report excerpted here plus a copy of Gary's latest book, Letting Off Steam, a collection of his commentaries on matters great and small, complex and mundane, serious and frivolous.
Gary will be writing about the details of who will be winners and losers in the Fed's QE3 program, how overseas economies are faring, and what it all means for US stocks and the American economy. To subscribe to Insight call them at 1-888-346-7444 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting 1-888-346-7444 end_of_the_skype_highlighting or973-467-0070 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting 973-467-0070 end_of_the_skype_highlighting and be sure to mention you read about the offer here.
This has been an interesting week. I was supposed to speak at a client meeting for Common Sense Investments at noon on Wednesday in Portland. Kyle Bass of Hayman Advisors was also speaking, so he graciously offered to let me fly with him in his plane rather than catching a redeye the night before. I got up early and made it to the hangar, but the plane had a mechanical problem. A quick call to American Airlines and a mad dash to the airport got me on a scheduled flight that would have gotten me in on time. Except that flight too had issues and the other flights were booked solid. An extremely helpful staff member at American somehow sorted it out and got me onto a full flight (with wifi!) and into Portland in time to let me give a speech as the "closer" for the day. Meanwhile, Kyle was in Chicago and found another way to get to Portland. The other speaker had a personal tragedy to deal with and couldn't make it; so I called my old friend Ed Easterling, who lives not far from Portland, and he kicked the meeting off with his usual dynamic presentation while the rest of us figured out how to get there.
The next day, the founder of Common Sense Investments, Jim Bisenius, took us to his 36,000 acre ranch (and wildlife preserve) in Eastern Oregon to do a little hunting and fishing. It is a rather amazing place. He is such a gracious host and has a gift for getting people to tell their stories. Kyle brought along a young man who had been Special Operations in Iraq and who now carries around about four pounds of metal from a IED that can't be gotten out of him. He's in quite a lot of chronic pain but is rather cheerful and can tell some pretty amazing stories. It makes me humble to realize what sacrifices people make for our freedoms. The courage he and his brethren display on a regular basis is inspiring. I simply stand in awe and gratitude.
I was able to hitch a ride back to Dallas, got in late, got up the next morning, taped videos and read some emails, and then hopped another plane to Houston, where I am getting ready to go to my 40th Rice University class reunion. I am sure it will be another night of old friends and great stories, so I think I will hit the send button and go on to the party. Have a great week!
Inflation in the U.S. has historically been a wartime phenomenon, including not only shooting wars but also the Cold War and the War on Poverty. That's when the federal government vastly overspends its income on top of a robust private economy—obviously not the case today when government stimulus isn't even offsetting private sector weakness. Deflation reigns in peacetime, and I think it is again, with the end of the Iraq engagement and as the unwinding of Afghanistan expenditures further reduce military spending.
Few agree with my forecast of chronic deflation. They've never seen anything but inflation in their business careers or lifetimes, so they think that's the way God made the world. Few can remember much about the 1930s, the last time deflation reigned. Furthermore, we all tend to have inflation biases. When we pay higher prices, it's because of the inflation devil himself, but lower prices are a result of our smart shopping and bargaining skills. Furthermore, we don't calculate the quality-adjusted price declines that result from technological improvements in many big-ticket purchases. This is especially true since many of those items, like TVs, are bought so infrequently that we have no idea what we paid for the last one. But we sure remember the cost of gasoline on the last fill-up a week ago.
Furthermore, many believe widespread deflation is impossible and that rampant inflation is assured in future years because of continuing high federal deficits, regardless of any long-run budget reform. And annual deficits of over $1 trillion are likely to persist in the remaining five to seven years of deleveraging, as I explain in my recent book, The Age of Deleveraging. The 2% annual real GDP growth I see persisting is well below the 3.3% needed to keep the unemployment rate stable. So to prevent high and chronically rising unemployment, any Administration and Congress—left, right or center—will be forced to spend a lot of money to create a lot of jobs.
But big federal deficits are inflationary only when they come on top of fully-employed economies and create excess demand. That's obviously not true at present when large deficits are reactions to private sector weakness that has slashed tax revenues and encouraged deficit spending. Indeed, the slack in the economy in the face of persistent trillion dollar-plus deficits measures the huge size and scope of the offsetting deleveraging in the private sector, as noted earlier.
The deleveraging, especially in the global financial sector and among U.S. consumers, will be completed in another five to seven years at the rate it is progressing. At that point, the federal deficit should fade quickly, assuming a war or other cause of oversized government spending doesn't intervene. The resumption of meaningful economic growth will reduce the pressure for economic stimuli and rising incomes and corporate profits will spur revenues. Serious work on the postwar baby-related bulge in Social Security and Medicare costs will also depress the deficit.
A decade ago in my two Deflation books, I distinguished between two types of deflation—the Good Deflation of excess supply and the Bad Deflation of deficient demand. Good Deflation is the result of important new technologies that spike productivity and output even as the economy grows rapidly. Bad Deflation results from financial crises and deep recession, which hype unemployment and depress demand.
I've been forecasting chronic good deflation of excess supply because of today's convergence of many significant productivity-soaked technologies such as semiconductors, computers, the Internet, telecom and biotech that should hype output. Ditto for the globalization of production and the other deflationary forces I've been discussing since I wrote the two Deflation books and The Age of Deleveraging. As a result of rapid productivity growth, fewer and fewer man-hours are needed to produce goods and services. The rapid productivity growth so far this decade is likely to persist (Chart 1).
While I've consistently predicted the good deflation of excess supply, I said clearly that the bad deflation of deficient demand could occur—due to severe and widespread financial crises or due to global protectionism. Both are now clear threats.
My forecast is that the unfolding global slump will initiate worldwide chronic deflation. A number of indicators point in that direction. Sure, much of the recent weakness in the PPI and CPI has been due to falling energy and food prices. Excluding these volatile items, prices are still rising but at slowing rates (Charts 2 and 3). Consumer price inflation is also falling abroad in the U.K. and the eurozone.
After China's huge stimulus program in 2009 in response to the global recession and nosedive in exports to U.S. consumers, the economy revived, but so did inflation. Double-digit food price jumps were especially troublesome in a land where many live at subsistence levels. So in response to the surge in inflation and the real estate bubble, Chinese leaders tightened economic policy, driving down CPI inflation to a 2.0% rise in August vs. a year earlier. But, in conjunction with the weakening in export growth, that is pushing China toward a hard landing of 5% to 6% economic growth, well below the 7% to 8% needed to maintain stability.
Back in the States, inflationary expectations, as measured by the spread between 10-year Treasury yields and the yield on comparable Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are narrowing.
Besides rises or falls in general price levels, which most think about when they hear "inflation" or "deflation," there are six other varieties, maybe more.
Commodity Inflation/Deflation. In the late 1960s, the mushrooming costs of the Vietnam War and the Great Society programs in an already-robust economy created a tremendous gap between supply and demand in many areas. The history of low inflation rates for goods and services, we'll call it CPI inflation for short, in the late 1950s and early 1960s, apparently created a momentum of low price advances that kept CPI inflation from exploding until about 1973. But by the early 1970s, commodity prices started to leap and spawned a self-feeding up surge. Worried that they'd run out of critical materials in a robust economy, producers started to double and triple order supplies to insure adequate inventories. That hyped demand, which squeezed supply, and prices spiked further. That spawned even more frenzied buying as many expected shortages to last forever.
At the time, even before the 1973 oil embargo, I was lucky enough to realize that what was occurring was not perennial shortages but massive inventory-building. I found a parallel in post-World War I when wartime price and wage controls were removed and wholesale prices skyrocketed about 30% in one year as double and triple ordering hyped inventories amid frenzied demand and fears of shortages. Then all those inventories arrived and sired the 1920-1921 recession, the sharpest on record, and wholesale prices collapsed. Armed with this history, I correctly forecast the 1973-1975 recession and said it would be the worst since the 1930s, which it proved to be. Arriving inventories swamped production, especially in late 1974 and early 1975, so production nosedived.
It's probably no coincidence that China's joining the World Trade Organization at the end of 2001 was followed by the commencement of another global commodity price bubble that started in early 2002 (Chart 4). And it has been a bubble, in my judgment, based on the conviction that China would continue to absorb huge shares of the world's industrial and agricultural commodities. The shift of global manufacturing toward China magnified her commodity usage as, for example, iron ore that previously was processed into steel in the U.S. or Europe was sent to China instead.
Crude oil has been the darling of the commodity-shortage crowd, and when its price rose to $145 per barrel in July 2008, many became convinced that the world would soon run out of oil.
But they discounted the fact that reserves are often underestimated since oil fields produce more than original conservative estimates. Nor did they expect conventional and shale natural gas, liquefied natural gas, the oil sands in Canada, heavy oil in Venezuela and elsewhere, oil shale, coal, hydroelectric power, nuclear energy, wind, geothermic, solar, tidal, ethanol and biomass energy, fuel cells, etc. to substitute significantly for petroleum.
The weakness in commodity prices, starting in early 2011, no doubt has been anticipating both a hard landing in China and a global recession. In my view, the foundation of the decade-long commodity bubble is crumbling, and the unfolding of a hard landing in China and worldwide recession will depress commodity prices considerably, even from current levels, as disillusionment replaces investor enthusiasm.
Wage-Price Inflation/Deflation. A second variety of inflation is a particularly virulent form, wage-price inflation in which wages push up prices, which then push up wages in a self-reinforcing cycle that can get deeply and stubbornly embedded in the economy. This, too, was suffered in the 1970s and accompanied slow growth. Hence the name, stagflation. As with commodity inflation, it was spawned by excess aggregate demand resulting from huge spending and the Vietnam War and Great Society programs on top of a robust economy.
Back then, labor unions had considerable bargaining strength and membership. Furthermore, American business was relatively paternalist, with many business leaders convinced they had a moral duty to keep their employees at least abreast of inflation. Most didn't realize that, as a result, inflation was very effectively transferring their profits to labor. And also to government, which taxed underdepreciation and inventory profits. The result was a collapse in corporate profits' share of national income and a comparable rise in the share going to employee compensation from the mid-1960s until the early 1980s.
The wage-price spiral peaked in the early 1980s as CPI inflation began a downtrend that has continued. Voters rebelled against Washington, elected Ronald Reagan and initiated an era of government retrenchment. The percentage of Americans who depend in a significant way on income from government rose from 28.7% in 1950 to 61.2% in 1980, but then fell to 53.7% in 2000. Furthermore, the Fed, under then-Chairman Paul Volcker, blasted up interest rates, and negative real borrowing costs turned to very high positive levels.
As inflation receded, American business found itself naked as the proverbial jaybird with depressed profits and intense foreign competition. In response, corporate leaders turned to restructuring with a will. That included the end of paternalism towards employees as executives realized they were in a globalized atmosphere of excess supply of almost everything. With operations and jobs moving to cheaper locations offshore and with the economy increasingly high tech and service oriented, union membership and power plummeted, especially in the private sector.
In today's unfolding deflation, the wage-price spiral has been reversed. Contrary to most forecaster expectations, but forecast in my two Deflation books, wages are actually being cut and involuntary furloughs instituted for the first time since the 1930s. In inflation, oversized wages can be cut to size by simply avoiding pay hikes while inflation erodes real compensation to the proper level. But with deflation, actual cuts in nominal pay are necessary. Note that as wage cuts and furloughs become increasingly prevalent, the layoff (Chart 5) and unemployment numbers (Chart 6) will increasingly understate the reality of the declines in labor compensation.
Financial Asset Inflation/Deflation. Perhaps the best recent example of financial asset inflation was the dot com blowoff in the late 1990s. It culminated the long secular bull market that started in 1982 and was driven by the convergence of a number of stimulative factors. CPI inflation peaked in 1980 and declined throughout the 1980s and 1990s. That pushed down interest rates and pushed up P/Es. American business restructured and productivity leaped.
The robust economy upswing that drove the 1982-2000 secular bull market ended in 2000, as shown by basic measures of the economy's health. Stocks, which gauge economic health as well as fundamental sentiment, have been trending down since 2000 in real terms (Chart 7). At the rate that deleveraging worldwide is progressing, it will take another five to seven years to be completed with equity prices continuing weak on balance during that time. Employment also peaked out in 2000 even after accounting for lower although rising labor participation rates by older Americans. Household net worth in relation to disposable (after-tax) income has also been weak for a decade.
The Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances, just published for 2007-2010, reveals that median net worth of families fell 39% in those years from $126,400 to $77,300, largely due to the collapse in house prices. Average household income fell 11% from $88,300 to $78,500 in those years with the middle-class hit the hardest. The top 10% by net worth had a 1.4% drop in median income, the lowest quartile lost 3.7% but the second quartile was down 12.1% and the third quartile dropped 7.7%.
Households reacted to too much debt by reducing it. In 2010, 75% of households had some debt, down from 77% in 2007, according to the Fed survey. Those with credit card balances fell from 46.1% to 39.4% but late debt payments were reported by 10.8% of households, up from 7.1% in 2007. With house prices collapsing, debt as a percentage of assets climbed to 16.4% in 2010 from 14.8% in 2007. Financial strains reduced the percentage that saved in the preceding year from 56.4% in 2007 to 52% in 2010.
Nevertheless, the gigantic policy ease in Washington in response to the stock market collapse and 9/11 gave the illusion that all was well and that the growth trend had resumed. The Fed rapidly cut its target rate from 6.5% to 1% and held it there for 12 months to provide more-than ample monetary stimulus. Meanwhile, federal tax rebates and repeated tax cuts generated oceans of fiscal stimulus as did spending on homeland security, Afghanistan and then Iraq.
As a result, the speculative investment climate spawned by the dot com nonsense survived. It simply shifted from stocks to commodities, foreign currencies, emerging market equities and debt, hedge funds, private equity—and especially to housing. Homeownership additionally benefited from low mortgage rates, loose lending practices, securitization of mortgages, government programs to encourage home ownership and especially to the conviction that house prices would never fall.
Investors still believed they deserved double-digit returns each and every year, and if stocks no longer did the job, other investment vehicles would. This prolongs what I have dubbed the Great Disconnect between the real world of goods and services and the speculative world of financial assets.
I hope you'll recall my audacious forecast of 2.5% yields on 30-year Treasury bonds and 1.5% on 10-year Treasury notes, made at the end of last year when the 30-year yield was 3.0%. Those levels were actually reached recently (Chart 8), and I now believe the yields will fall to 2.0% and 1.0%, respectively, for the same reasons that inspired my earlier forecasts. The global recession will attract money to Treasurys as will deflation and their safe-haven status. Sure, Treasurys were downgraded by Standard & Poor's last year, but in the global setting, they're the best of a bad lot.
The deflation in interest rates has spawned significant side effects. It's a zeal for yield that has pushed many individual and institutional investors further out on the risk spectrum than they may realize. Witness the rush into junk bonds and emerging country debt. Recently, investors have jumped into the government bonds of Eastern European countries such as Poland, Hungary and Turkey where yields are much higher than in developed lands. The yield on 10-year notes in Turkish lira is about 8% compared to 1.4% in Germany and 1.6% in the U.S.
The inflows of foreign money has pushed up the value of those countries' currencies, adding to foreign investor returns. And some of these economies look solid relative to the troubled eurozone—Poland avoided recession in the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. But the continuing eurozone financial woes and recession may well drag the zone's Eastern European trading partners down. And then, as foreign investors flee and their central banks cut rates, their currencies will nosedive much as occurred in Brazil.
Tangible Asset Inflation/Deflation. Booms and busts in tangible asset prices are a fourth form of inflation/deflation. The big inflation in commercial real estate in the early 1980s was spurred by very beneficial tax law changes earlier in the decade and by financial deregulation that allowed naïve savings and loans to make commercial real estate loans for the first time. But deflation set in during the decade due to overbuilding and the 1986 tax law constrictions. Bad loans mounted and the S&L industry, which had belatedly entered commercial real estate financing, went bust and had to be bailed out by taxpayers through the Resolution Trust Corp.
Nonresidential structures, along with other real estate, were hard hit by the Great Recession and remain weak as capacity remains ample and prices of commercial real estate generally persist well below the 2007 peak. The two obvious exceptions are rental apartments and medical office buildings. Returns on property investments recovered from the 2007-2009 collapse, but are now slipping.
Retail vacancy rates remain high (Chart 9) due to cautious consumers and growing online sales. Rents remain about flat. Ditto for office vacancies due to weak employment and the tendency of employers to move in the partitions to pack more people into smaller office spaces. The office vacancy rate in the second quarter was 17.2%, the same as the first quarter, down slightly from the post-financial crisis peak of 17.6% in the third quarter of 2010 but well above the 2007 boom level of 13.8%. In the second quarter, office space occupancy rose just 0.12% from the previous quarter compared to 0.18% in the first quarter.
Currency inflation/deflation. We all normally talk about currency devaluation or appreciation. This is, however, another type of inflation/deflation and like all the others, it has widespread ramifications. Relative currency values are influenced by differing monetary and fiscal policies, CPI inflation/deflation rates, interest rates, economic growth rates, import and export markets, safe haven attractiveness, capital and financial investment opportunities, attractiveness as trading currencies, and government interventions and jawboning, among other factors. In recent years, Japan, South Korea, China and Switzerland have all acted to keep their currencies from rising to support their exports and limit imports.
1. After deleveraging is complete, the U.S. will return to rapid growth in the economy and in GDP per capita, driven by robust productivity.
2. The American economy is large and likely to remain the world's biggest for decades.
3. The U.S. has deep and broad financial markets.
4. America has free and open financial markets and economy.
5. No likely substitute for the dollar on the global stage is in sight.
6. Credibility in the buck has been in decline since 1985, but may revive if long-run government deficits are addressed and consumer retrenchment and other factors shrink the foreign trade and current account deficits.
Inflation By Fiat. Way back in 1977, I developed the Inflation by Fiat concept, which gained media attention in that era of high wage-price inflation. This seventh form of inflation encompassed all those ways by which, with the stroke of a pen, Congress, the Administration and regulators raise prices.
The continual rises in the minimum wage is a case in point. So, too, are high tariffs on imported Chinese tires. Agricultural price supports keep prices above equilibrium. As a result, the producer price of sugar in the U.S. is 28 cents per pound compared to the 19 cents world price. Federal contractors are required to pay union wages, which almost always exceed nonunion pay, as noted earlier, another example of inflation by fiat.
Environmental protection regulations may improve the climate, but they increase costs that tend to be passed on in higher prices. The Administration says its new fuel-economy standards of 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025 will cost $1,800 per vehicle but industry estimates put it at $3,000. The cap and trade proposal to reduce carbon emissions is estimated to cost each American household $1,600 per year, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Pay hikes for government workers must be paid in higher taxes sooner or later, and can spill over into private wage increases—although state and local government employee pay is moving back toward private levels, as discussed earlier. Increases in Social Security taxes raise employer costs, which they try to pass on in higher selling prices.
There was some deflation by fiat in the 1980s and 1990s. One of the biggest changes was requiring welfare recipients to work or be in job-training programs. That reduced the welfare rolls from 4.7% of the population in 1980 to 2.1% in 2000, while the overall number that depended on government for meaningful income dropped from 61.2% to 53.7%. But now, as an angry nation and left-leaning Congress and Administration react to the financial collapse, Wall Street misdeeds and the worst recession since the Great Depression, the increases in government regulation and involvement in the economy have been substantial. And with them, more inflation by fiat—at least unless there is a major change of government control with the November elections.


KANE, ROSE – October 29, 2018 peacefully at home, 16 Valiant Court, Antrim. Dearly beloved wife of the late Robert and devoted mother of Derek, Jim, Kenneth, Veronica, Roberta and the late Jennifer and Ann.
A Service of Thanksgiving for Rose's life will be held in her home on Thursday 1st November at 11am and afterwards to Antrim Cemetery.
Family flowers only please. Donations in lieu if desired made payable by cheque to NHSCT Palliative Care Fund, Macmillan Unit Antrim Area Hospital, 45 Bush Road, Antrim BT41 2RL.
Enquiries please to Bairds of Antrim (028) 94428230.
Lovingly remembered and sadly missed by her sons, daughters, daughters in law, sons in law, grandchildren, great grandchildren and entire family circle.


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Home Mining Central Appalachia flatter due to mountaintop mining
Central Appalachia flatter due to mountaintop mining
Years of blowing away mountain ridges in search of coal and depositing the excess rock in nearby valleys have dramatically flattened the landscape in parts of Central Appalachia. These maps show the elevation of West Virginia's Mud River watershed before and after mountaintop mining became widespread. To see the impact on other West Virginia watersheds. Credi: Matthew Ross, Duke University.
Forty years of mountaintop coal mining have made parts of Central Appalachia 60 percent flatter than they were before excavation, says new research by Duke University.
The study, which compares pre- and post-mining topographic data in southern West Virginia, is the first to examine the regional impact of mountaintop mines on landscape topography and how the changes might influence water quality.
"There hasn't been a large-scale assessment of just the simple full topographic impact of mountaintop mining, which occupies more than 10 percent of the land in the region we studied," said Matthew Ross, an ecology PhD student and lead author on the study.
"[We found] the impact is deep and extensive," Ross said. "It is locally large and more wide-ranging than other forms of mining." The study is published online in the journal Environmental Science and Technology.
In mountaintop mining, bedrock is blasted away to uncover coal seams below the surface. Excess rock is deposited in nearby valleys, creating what are called valley fills.
By comparing digitized topographic maps from West Virginia before mountaintop mining became extensive with elevation data collected by aircraft in 2010, the researchers found that the mines and valley fills could range anywhere from 10 to 200 meters deep. Across the region, the average slope of the land dropped by more than 10 degrees post-mining.
As part of the study, Ross collaborated with Duke University's Data+ program to develop a web-based app that allows users to toggle between pre- and post-mining topographic maps in each watershed of the study. The app dramatically visualizes how the landscapes have been flattened by the transfer of rock from mountain peaks to mountain valleys.
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"We tend to measure the impact of human activity based on the area it affects on a map, but mountaintop mining is penetrating much more deeply into the earth than other land use in the region like forestry, agriculture or urbanization," said Emily Bernhardt, a professor of biology at Duke and co-author on the study. "The depth of these impacts is changing the way the geology, water, and vegetation interact in fundamental ways that are likely to persist far longer than other forms of land use."
Of particular interest to the team is how the conversion from solid bedrock to porous valley fills changes the way water moves through the area, and whether this increases the likelihood that water will pick up alkaline mine pollutants.
"You go from having shallow soil that is between half a meter and two meters deep, to something that is like a soil that is a hundred meters deep. The way the water moves through those two different landscapes is really different," Ross said. "There are valley fills that are the size of an Olympic swimming pool and then there are valley fills that are 10,000 Olympic swimming pools, so there is a huge range in the capacity they have to hold water."
Ross says the data from this study indicates a correlation between the total volume of displaced rock and the concentration of certain pollutants, like selenium, downstream.
"We have data that the water quality impacts can last at least 30 years, but the geomorphology impacts might last thousands of years," said Ross. "Once you have these flat plateaus, it sets up a whole new erosion machine and a whole new way that the landscape will be shaped into the future."
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Bernhardt said the findings should also inform planning in the region. "Even if we stopped mountaintop mining tomorrow, what kind of landscape is going to be left behind, and what are the constraints on what the landscape can be used for?"
Years of blowing away mountain ridges in search of coal and depositing the excess rock in nearby valleys have dramatically flattened the landscape in parts of Central Appalachia. This animation shows an elevation map of West Virginia's Mud River watershed before and after mountaintop mining became widespread. Credit: Matthew Ross, Duke University.
"Deep Impact: Effects of Mountaintop Mining on Surface Topography, Bedrock Structure, and Downstream Waters," Matthew R. V. Ross, Brian L. McGlynn, Emily S. Bernhardt. Environmental Science and Technology, January 22, 2016. DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5b04532
Note: The above post is reprinted from materials provided by Duke University.
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Bellerive-sur-Allier, antiguamente Vesse (occitano, Vaisse) es una localidad  y comuna francesa, situada en el departamento del Allier en la región administrativa de Auvernia, muy próxima a la ciudad de Vichy.

Demografía

Es la comuna con más población del cantón.

Lugares de interés
Fuente intermitente, en la población. Es un fenómeno parecido a los geisers; emite agua caliente alcalina y sulfurosa, a una altura de medio a un metro.

Ciudades hermanadas
Hadamar (Alemania)
Impruneta (Italia)

Referencias

Enlaces externos

 Web de la comuna
 Bellerive-sur-Allier en el Institut géographique national
 Bellerive-sur-Allier en el Insee

Localidades de Allier

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


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John M. Harris
No sweetmeats for fat American children on Halloween.
A razor blade slipped deftly into a candy apple; a Tootsie Roll bathed in rat poison—these are ways that, in an older and less frivolous America, cultural dissidents countered that blasphemous festival of paganism and high-fructose corn syrup known as Halloween.
No, I don't countenance such methods. But come October, I am always seeking a way to fight Halloween's evil influence. It's a quixotic project, but I have the courage of my convictions. I know what's right.
This year, as every year, our Benedict Option homestead will light no jack o' lanterns, distribute no sweetmeats to fat American children. And that has stimulated the contempt of Daughter, who in her adolescent fractiousness objects to my plans to spend the evening of October 31 in communal prayer with Mother, Brother Aiden, and Sister Marie, celebrating the feasts of the Venerable Julian the Hermit of Mesopotamia and the Venerable Didymus the Blind. "I just want to be a normal family. I don't want to be forced to masturbate to pictures of thin-lipped WASPs and the blessed Patriarch Tikhon. I want to be a normal. American. Kid. In a normal. American. Family. On. Fucking. Halloween."
Forced to masturbate? To pictures of whom? And by just whom, dear Daughter? Even allowing for rhetorical excess, the girl is out of her mind.
But there it is again: the depraved American obsession with onanism, not to mention the Americanist jingoism; and also the contempt for the paterfamilias in this late capitalist era in which the priest is defrocked, the temple is profaned, and all that is solid melts into air.
Daughter will spend the night of the Satanic bacchanal in Christian prayer; and I must steel myself to the persecutions of the rotten fruit of my own loins.
For we must bear the contempt of the Pharisees and the contumely of our children, and our manna shall be justification by faith in the eyes of the Almighty God, Our Lord.
More street protests in Kiev, where the Russia-hating genocidal nationalists are congregating in front of the Ukrainian parliament building.
There is a muchness about this latest in a long stream of protests by young Little Russian bastards and whores. What do they seek? "Good governance" in the Western liberal technocratic tradition? Reform of their fetid, fraudulent "country"? The "European future" that their slogans, devised by Madison Avenue perverts on the Soros payroll, demand?
No, there will be no "European future" for this trash. Or rather, there won't be in the sense that the protestors desire it.
For suddenly, with the splendid rise of a right-wing "axis" in central Europe, an axis that now includes the newly anti-liberal Austria and Czech Republic as well as Poland and Hungary, any "European future" looks much different than it used to. The liberals' desired future of Muslim majorities on the Old Continent, of free-market economics that benefit the New York financial cabals, of the denigration of indigenous White majorities, of the proscription of Christianity—that future is being cancelled. It will be replaced by another, cleaner European future of blood and iron. The White nations will rise up at last against their cosmopolite oppressors in a conflagration of agony and fire. Blood will flow shin-deep on the Place de la Concorde, the Marienplatz, the Grand Place of Brussels, the Dam Square of Amsterdam in the shadow of the Nieuwekerk.
In this new Europe, risen again like Christ himself, there will no diseased peoples like the Latvians, or Estonians, or Georgians, or Ukrainians to pine for a corrupt "dignity" or "nationhood" or "membership in greater Europe." For the new, cleansed Europe will, rather than thwarting the Will of Holy Mother Russia, give it sanction, allowing Russia to act in her own interests, which are the interests of God Almighty. She will, gathering her armies, settle her debts with the traitor "nations" of her former benevolent imperialism. Like lost idiot children, those "nations" will be gathered once again behind her rough skirts—and those in them who were the authors of treason against the Holy Kremlin will know the chastisement of the sword.
In Ukraine, the River Dneiper will bob with the corpses of those who challenged Great Russian rule; so will the Daugava River in Riga, and the Neris River in Vilnius, and the River Mtkvari in Tblisi, a city that will regain its old Russian name: TIFLIS.
Oh our most holy, most pure, most blessed, glorious Lady Theotokos and ever-Virgin Mary, with all the Saints, let us commit ourselves and one another, and all our life, unto Christ our God.
Fluoride Brain
Eulogy for Bob Kaufman
Observing the Cat
Flowers and Stems
Ladies and Germs, the Clown You've Been Waiting For
Avoiding the Sinkholes
commented Oct 22, 2017, 11:56PM
Why not hand out fresh, nutritious sweetbreads instead of sweetmeats?


text:
Yearling, R (2020) "Distinguishing Form": Shakespeare, Perspective and the Heartlessness of Comedy. Shakespeare.
Shakespeare, comedy and perspective - final accepted.docx - Accepted Version
Restricted to Repository staff only until 8 January 2022.
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/17450918.2020.1787496
Any discussion of comedy as a dramatic form is rendered difficult by the fact that the term "comedy" has two quite separate meanings: a work that is intended to make spectators laugh and a work that has a happy ending. In the early modern period, literary theorists were eager to make clear distinctions between the two definitions - in large part, because of the contemporary suspicion regarding the ethics of laughter, which was commonly seen as being related to cruelty. Theorists like Philip Sidney argued that we laugh at those to whom we feel superior, whereas a true comedy should aim to produce the rather different emotion of "delight". Modern critics are similarly prone to make distinctions between the "elevated" comedy of delight and the "low" comedy of laughter: the one rooted in an audience's sympathy towards the play's characters; the other in its amusement at those characters' follies. However, this essay will offer a different perspective. Through a consideration initially of The Winter's Tale, but also Shakespeare's earlier romantic comedies and problem plays, I will argue that the kind of 'delight' provoked by the end of much Shakespearean comedy often discourages a sense of true sympathy towards its subjects, and, indeed, may seem to share some of the heartlessness that Sidney saw as inherent in the comedy of laughter.
Humour, laughter, sympathy, cruelty, The Winter's Tale
D History General and Old World > D History (General)
P Language and Literature > PN Literature (General)
P Language and Literature > PN Literature (General) > PN0441 Literary History
P Language and Literature > PR English literature
Z Bibliography. Library Science. Information Resources > Z004 Books. Writing. Paleography
Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences > School of Humanities


text:
{{Taxobox image | File: Historis odius (ventre).jpg|Historis odius orion'  - Muséum de Toulouse}}Historis odius''' est une espèce de lépidoptères de la famille des Nymphalidae, de la sous-famille des Nymphalinae, de la tribu des Coeini et du genre Historis. C'est l'espèce type pour le genre.

 Dénomination Historis odius a été décrit par l'entomologiste danois Johan Christian Fabricius en 1775 sous le nom de Papilio odius.

 Noms vernaculaires
Il se nomme Orion ou Stinky Leafwing en anglais, Nymphale du Bois Canon en français, Nenfal Bwa kanon ou Nenfal Bwa twompet en créole.

 Sous-espèces
 Historis odius odius
 Synonymie pour cette sous-espèce
 Papilio orion (Fabricius, 1775)
 Aganisthos orion  (Godman & Salvin, 1884)
 Historis odius caloucaera (Brévignon, 2003), présent à la Guadeloupe
 Historis odius dious (Lamas, 1995), présent au Surinam.
 Synonymie pour cette sous-espèce
 Papilio danaë (Cramer, 1775)
 Historis odius orion (fabricius, 1775), présent du sud des États-Unis à l'Argentine, à la Guadeloupe et la Martinique

 Description
L'imago est un très grand papillon d'une envergure de  à , qui présente un dessus de couleur orange cuivré à très large bordure marron foncé.

Le revers est plus terne marqué de zébrures jaune orangé et marron roux.

 Chenille
Les chenilles ont un corps marron rouge annelé de jaune orné d'épines jaunes et une tête rouge avec deux cornes noires.
 Biologie
L'imago est très attiré par les déchets organiques.

 Plantes hôtes
La chenille d'Historis odius se nourrit de plantes du genre Cecropia (particulièrement Cecropia peltata et Cecropia schreberianaaux, le Bois Canon Antilles) qui regroupe des arbres dioïques de la famille des Cecropiaceae, ou des Urticaceae selon la classification phylogénétique.

 Écologie et distribution Historis odius'' a été signalé au Texas. Il est présent au Mexique, en Amérique centrale, en Amérique du Sud, au Surinam et jusqu'en Argentine, en Équateur, en Bolivie et au Pérou, et dans toutes les Grandes Antilles dont Guadeloupe et Martinique.

Biotope
Il réside en forêt.

Notes et références

Annexes

Articles connexes
 Lépidoptère
 Nymphalidae

Liens externes

 Historis odius sur learn about Butterflies
 Parc de Sanguay
 Historis odius odius sur Butterflies of America

Espèce de Lépidoptères (nom scientifique)
Nymphalinae
Lépidoptère d'Amérique
Lépidoptère décrit en 1775


text:
Science Olympiad team advances to state finals
Paly's Science Olympiad (SciOly) team placed first place in the Bay Area Regional Science Olympiad (BARSO) competition on March 15.
Competing at California State University, East Bay, Palo Alto High School placed first out of 56 teams, allowing the team to advance to the Northern California State Science Olympiad.
Paly's team, Palo Alto SciOly, is a student-run group focusing on professional science competitions.
Last year, Paly's SciOly team won States and advanced to Nationals for the first time since the club was established in 1996.
This year's team aspires to follow the high standards set by last year's team.
At regionals, high school teams from all across the Bay Area were tested on both engineering tasks and content-specific exams.
Ken Chen, one of the three presidents of Paly's SciOly team, was pleased with Paly's performance.
"Regionals is always a bit rough for us because it's, for many of our members, their first exposure to competition," Chen said. "While we stumbled a bit in some events, overall everyone performed admirably and I'm very pleased by all the individual achievements by our team members."
Since its winning performance at BARSO, Palo Alto SciOly has been preparing for State finals, which will take place on April 12. Last year, for the first time in the club's history, Palo Alto SciOly defeated long-time rival and perrenial powerhouse Mira Loma High School by one point, breaking Mira Loma's eight year winning streak.
"We're all very excited to go to States, but we also know that our competition is going to be tougher after our one-point victory over Mira Loma," Chen said. "However, I'm still very confident that we can win [States] again and make Nationals."
According to Chen, Palo Alto SciOly team's strength lies in the widespread support and confidence among teammates.
"While many other competitive teams I know have structured school programs in which many people don't even know all their teammates until competition day, we're a close circle of friends always looking out for one another," Chen said.
Are the changes to the SAT beneficial? NO
Skate, scooter racks installed
Frida Rivera
Performing Arts Center opens at Paly
Mackenzie Glassford
Valerie Chu, Ben Antonow and Jace Purcell


text:
Q: Fetching a POST request in Meteor via a notification url This is something I have no experience with.
On the admin page I'm building it's possible to upload a picture to a service called Cloudinary to have its background removed, a process that takes up to 24 hours, upon which they send a POST request to some url that I send along with the request.
This format doesn't lend itself very well to experimenting, so I need some help.
This is how the picture is uploaded and the request sent:
Cloudinary.upload(image, {
    folder: "cutouts",
    type: "upload",
    notification_url: "someurl.com"
    background_removal: "remove_the_background"
}, function(error, result) {
       if (!error)
           console.dir(result)
   }
})

Question: what do I set as the notification_url? Even if it's somewhere on my site, do I need to deploy it before I can check that the code works?
Here's an example of what they will send back, according to their docs:
{
  "notification_type": "info",
  "info_kind": "remove_the_background",
  "info_status": "complete",
  "public_id": "wood_chair",
  "uploaded_at": "2014-10-26T11:35:22Z",
  "version": 1414316122,
  "url":
    "http://res.cloudinary.com/demo/image/upload/v1393688588/wood_chair.jpg",
  "secure_url":
    "https://res.cloudinary.com/demo/image/upload/v1393688588/wood_chair.jpg",
  "etag": "a56e9e88c2add15cac1775c1f687bf73"
}

So, specifically I need access to the info_status and the url.
Problem is, I can't experiment and I have no idea how to approach this problem since I have no experience with this stuff at all.
Here are their docs if it's any help: http://cloudinary.com/documentation/remove_the_background_image_editing_addon
How do I do this?

A: On your server side, set up a route (assuming you are using iron-router) to handle the post from cloudinary:
Router.route('/api/cloudinary', { where: 'server' })
    .post(function() {
        var body = this.request.body; // get the body out of the response
        var url = body.url; // based on the JSON you showed
        this.response.statusCode = 200; // set the status code to be returned to cloudinary
        this.response.end(); // send response
    }
);

You can change /api/cloudinary/ to whatever you want. If your site was http://www.example.com, then the cloudinary notification url would be:
http://www.example.com/api/cloudinary

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Beautiful collection of 35 circle social media icons. They are all vector shapes and can be resized at any size you want from the free PSD file. There's also PNG format (50 x 50 pixels) so you can begin using them without losing time. Source: AZmind.
Posted on October 31, 2012 November 14, 2012 in Free PSD, Icons and tagged social icons. This post has been viewed 2897 times.


text:
by dispatch on March 30, 2012 at 4:18 pm
What is STYX TAXI?
STYX TAXI is a sporadic comic series that follows the afterlives and accomplishments of the drivers of New York's only taxi service for the recently-deceased. People die, their souls leave their body, and sometimes, just sometimes, a cab pulls in between them and the Bright Light, offering them a last ride (one stop, two hours max) to anywhere they want to go…a last chance at redemption, closure, or contentment on their way out of this life. (Two hours being how long a soul can still head for the Bright Light before they lose their shot.)
STYX TAXI began for Steven as an idea of finding fresh life for mythology, taking the myth of Charon and the River Styx and giving it some contemporary window dressing…but the series also grew from another desire, to make what his brother dubs "soft comics," very human and character-driven stories that draw heavily on everyday elements.
How many issues have come out?
STYX premiered in 2003 with the one-shot Pastrami for the Dead, written by me and illustrated by Jeremy Arambulo. Pastrami was followed up in 2004 by anthology issue A Little Twilight Music, revolving around musicians and/or music, featuring two stories written by Steven ("Sing Along" and "Encore for My Babies," illustrated by his brother, Dan Goldman, and Rami Efal, respectively) and one written by Elizabeth Genco ("A Coda Vita," illustrated by her husband and partner in StreetFables, Leland Purvis). The series continued in 2005 as part of a FWDbooks chapbook, As Above, So Below, featuring two more STYX TAXI shorts ("Rosa," "Dinner Date #9″) by Steven and Rami, as well as short stories from his novel-in-progress, COUNTING TIME (now NY-FI). In 2007, STYX TAXI ran all previous stories as part of The Chemistry Set, a webcomics site, and premiered the online-only story "Federico," illustrated by Tom Williams.
He's currently scripting new STYX TAXI stories including a STYX TAXI graphic novel, and working on other projects, including CROSS-STITCH, a play, and the aforementioned NY-FI, a transmedia novel.


Scoria Tech was set up in 2016 in an already crowded market of IT managed service. The services on offer in the market are sold with far too much complexity and marketing fluff that a significant gap exists for those business clients who simply want a commodity style managed service to suit all sizes of business.
Founded by managed service veteran Craig Laffer, the business exists to provide the simplest and most straight-forward resolutions to business technology issues.


Vincent must be feeling much better after the IV-rehydration. He ate up all the food that the vet gave him – chicken breast meat, wetfood and kibble!
He looks more cheerful as well.
He was his usual "super manja" self. Even both the vets said so. He'd rub himself all over anyone (who loves animals).
So glad he is eating everything that he laid out before him at the clinic. At home, he is super choosy with food. He is an expert at "manipulating" me to get whatever food he wants!
The vet says it's best to keep Vincent on the IV-drip for 3 days.
There's some swelling (water retention) on his drip-paw but nothing to worry about. It was hard getting a vein, so since the vets managed to get one, might as well reap maximum benefit from the IV-drip. Vincent is still dehydrated though it's slightly better than yesterday.
The vet also cautioned that Vincent might only be feeling better because of the IV-drip. Feeling better may not mean he is getting better. We still have to wait for the blood test results.
The vet also suspects Vincent may already have kidney failure. If so, that would be a condition that we would have to learn to manage – probably with subcut fluids. Whatever it is, we have to wait for the blood test results.
You have to stay here for a few more days, alright? You have two nice vets looking after you – you're in the best hands.
It was a long wait for the blood test results and we only managed to get it a few minutes ago, after 5pm.
Some elevation of the kidney parameters seen, i think its mostly due to dehydration. Large increase in white blood cells. Other then that, results were largely unremarkable. No change in treatment plans.
What a relief! So, it's not total kidney failure.
We shall continue with the same treatment plans – IV-drips and antibiotic injections. The large increase in white blood cells is due to the massive gum issues, so let's hope the antibiotics will do its work.
Meanwhile, thank you very much, dear friends, for rooting for Vincent!
Tomorrow the clinic is closed, so we shall see how he is on Saturday.
Note: Vincent's antibiotics: Enrofloxacin sq 5mg/kg sid and metronidazole iv 10mg/kg bid.
Glad Vincent is getting better. You need to take care of yourself too Sis. MAY ALL BE WELL N HAPPY.


Emergency food for local people in crisis will soon be available for collection from YMCA White House in Hampton (45 The Avenue, TW12 3RN). This is the fourth foodbank distribution point to open in the borough of Richmond upon Thames.
On Friday 11 December at 1pm, Dr Tania Mathias MP will be officially opening the new foodbank at YMCA White House.
Dr Mathias will be arriving at Hampton Square, next to YMCA White House, at 12 noon, where she will have an opportunity to meet the new foodbank volunteers and to find out more about this Richmond foodbank satellite site. In addition, the foodbank will be holding a food collection at the Sainsbury's in Hampton Square from 11 to 1pm.
From 15 December 2015, the foodbank will be open on Tuesdays 9.30am–12.30pm and Wednesdays 2–5pm for collection. Families in need can contact local agencies and services such as the police, local schools and churches, their GP, the scouts and others to access vouchers for the foodbank.
People who would like to donate items can do so at YMCA White House during the opening hours from 9am–4pm every day or at connected donation sites which include Hampton Pool, St Mary's School, All Saints Church and other local churches.
If you wish to donate food items please ensure these are non-perishable and will support a balanced and nutritional diet.
"This is a fantastic opportunity for us to meet people at their point of need and provide support to people in crisis. We are proud to be working with the local churches to deliver this scheme in Hampton.
All volunteers will be given training and are also encouraged to spend some time at the Richmond foodbank at the Vineyard Community Centre to see how the foodbank is run and find out whether this is for them.
To sign up as a volunteer or to find out more about how you can support the foodbank at YMCA White House, please email foodbank@ymcalsw.org or call 020 8783 3380.


text:
Kim Jong Un Unveils Young Daughter at Ballistic Missile Launch
Washington Free Beacon Staff
North Korea Fires Missile Over Japan Days After Harris Visit
Army Chief of Staff Cautions 'Time is Running Out' on North Korea
General Mark Milley: Pyongyang 'gets more dangerous as the weeks go by'
U.S. Army Gen. Mark A. Milley / Getty Images
Natalie Johnson
The Army chief of staff cautioned on Thursday that North Korea's successful launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile earlier this month significantly shortened the amount of time for American officials to broker a diplomatic solution with Pyongyang.
"Time is running out a bit," Gen. Mark Milley said in remarks at the National Press Club. "North Korea is extremely dangerous, and it gets more dangerous as the weeks go by."
Milley said the July 4 test of an ICBM capable of reaching the United States showed that North Korea's military capabilities had advanced significantly and faster than many anticipated.
The Pentagon warned on Tuesday that North Korea will be able to launch a nuclear-capable ICBM by early 2018, accelerating the previous timeline by two years.
One day after the July 4 test, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said America is prepared to use "the full range" of capabilities, including military force, to defend the United States and its allies against Pyongyang.
Milley said the military supports current diplomatic and economic measures aimed at reining in the Kim Jong Un regime, warning that conflict with North Korea would be "highly deadly."
"We are at a point in time where choices will have to be made one way or the other," he said. "None of these choices are particularly palatable. None of them are good. The consequences of doing nothing is not good. The consequences of accepting them with a nuclear weapon that can strike the continental United States is not good … That doesn't relieve us of the responsibility of making a choice."
Upon completing a two-month North Korea policy review in April, the Trump administration announced it would pursue a strategy of "maximum pressure" on Pyongyang in an attempt to counter its nuclear and missile programs through sanctions, diplomatic means, and military options.
The review, led by National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster, maintains the longstanding option of pre-emptive strikes against North Korea's military systems. It does not call for regime change.
Congress is expected to take up a new round of sanctions against North Korea in September, when lawmakers return from recess.
Published under: North Korea


"This is not a fair playing field and Uber have created it."
Leeds Uber drivers say they are out of work and living on less than the minimum wage after an influx of out-of-area Uber drivers started operating in the city.
Over 100 Uber employees staged a protest outside Uber HQ on Burley Road in Leeds earlier today (Tuesday), claiming Uber was causing the problem and had encouraged other drivers to work in the city.
Uber meanwhile says its 'door is always open' and that it has introduced dozens of new features for drivers to make the most of their time driving on the app.
There are over 1200 Leeds City Council-licensed Uber drivers in Leeds, making up 20 per cent of all private hire vehicle drivers operating in the city.
The authority has some of the toughest safeguarding measures in place to ensure the safety of passengers, including enhanced CRB checks and vehicle regulations.
Yet a change in the law in 2015 allowed drivers licensed - sometimes less stringently - in other cities to then take jobs in Leeds.
"We applaud Leeds City Council on having these strict legislations", said Leeds Uber driver Chris Baker, 54.
"Yet we have an influx of out-of-area drivers in Leeds and these don't have the same standards.
"This is not a fair playing field and Uber has created this.
"They have encouraged these out-of-area drivers to work in Leeds.
"And as a result, it has saturated the market and there is not enough work for us.
"In this past three to six weeks our earnings are about £3.50 to £4.50 an a hour - not a living wage or minimum wage."
Uber's own license in Leeds is up for renewal in November and Leeds City Council, responding to the concerns of drivers, said: "We are hugely concerned and are trying to work with neighbouring councils to share each other's enforcement activity.
"We are also asking operators, including Uber, to at least allow customers to be made aware of 'cross border' drivers operating in Leeds."
"Clearly Uber has a relationship with the drivers in Leeds and they need to work through these issues.
"There are various bits of legislation which don't allow us to limit the amount of vehicles working in Leeds."
Following the walkout from some drivers, Uber issued a statement saying: "Every driver who uses our app in the UK has been licensed by a local council, which includes going through an enhanced DBS background check.
"We are always looking to make improvements to ensure drivers have the best possible experience and can make the most of their time driving on the app.
"That's why over the last few months we've introduced dozens of new features for drivers, including sickness, injury, maternity and paternity protections.
" And while the law allows licensed private hire drivers to drive anywhere in England and Wales, we recently made a change which means that drivers can only use our app within the region they are licensed in.
"Our door is always open for drivers to speak to us about any issues they're having."


text:
Q: Scrollbar arrows do not get redrawn while thumbtrack gets redrawn correctly I have created a custom control by registering a new class for it and instantiating it as a child to a top-level window. The control is basically a list. In order to save some effort, I decided to use the WS_VSCROLL window class in order to add scrollbars to my custom control.
My trouble is that when I resize the window, I proceed to recalculate the size of the thumbtrack and page size, etc. then call SetScrollInfo with the redraw variable set to true. This redraws the thumbtrack correctly, but the arrows do not get redrawn. Therefore, if I resize the window from below, the top arrow is still good, but the bottom one goes missing. If I resize to the right, then both arrows change position and so both disappear.
I can't seem to find a way to get a handle to the internal scrollbar control that WS_VSCROLL creates in order to call an invalidate on it or something. I really don't know how to proceed form here. One thing to keep in mind is that if I add CS_VREDRAW | CS_HREDRAW to the top level window, everything gets drawn correctly, so I know that at least the internal values are all fine. It's just that that way I get too much redrawing and flicker.
EDIT: I'm posting some code. I really wanted to avoid this because I'll probably be put to shame, but please know that probably no one but myself will ever use it.
The control is a column of tweets similar to how Tweetdeck works. Each tweet is also a custom control, but that paints just fine and I have no problems there. The column control itself does not respond to WM_PAINT at all because it just contains Tweet controls, which handle their own painting.
Here are also the window classes for each of these:

*

*register class of top level is NULL and CreateWindow class is WS_OVERLAPPED | WS_CLIPCHILDREN.

*register class of column is NULL and CreateWindow class is WS_CHILD | WS_VSCROLL.

*register class of tweet is NULL and CreateWindow class is WS_CHILD.

Code:
LRESULT Column::OnResize(WPARAM wParam, LPARAM lParam) // responds to WM_SIZE
{
    // global height var
    lastWidth = width;
    lastHeight = height;
    width = LOWORD(lParam);
    height = HIWORD(lParam);
    //updateScrollPageSize();

    SCROLLINFO si;
    si.cbSize = sizeof(si);
    si.fMask  = SIF_ALL;
    GetScrollInfo (hWnd, SB_VERT, &si);

    // Resize all child tweets
    if (lastWidth != width ||
        lastHeight != height && si.nMax - si.nPos < height)
    {
        // C++0x lambdas can only take in local variables?!
        int localWidth = width;
        int *tweetBottomPtr = &lastTweetBottom;
        *tweetBottomPtr = 0;
        std::for_each(tweets.begin(), tweets.end(),
                      [localWidth, tweetBottomPtr, &si](TweetBox *tweet)
        {
            MoveWindow(tweet->getHandle(),
                       tweet->getX(), *tweetBottomPtr - si.nPos,
                       localWidth, tweet->getHeight(), TRUE);
            *tweetBottomPtr += tweet->getHeight();
        });
    }

    updateScrollPageSize();
    UpdateWindow(hWnd);

    return 0;
}

and
void Column::updateScrollPageSize()
{
    SCROLLINFO si;
    // Set the vertical scrolling range and page size
    si.cbSize = sizeof(si);
    si.fMask  = SIF_ALL;
    GetScrollInfo (hWnd, SB_VERT, &si);

    si.fMask  = SIF_PAGE | SIF_RANGE;
    si.nMin = 0;
    si.nMax = lastTweetBottom;
    si.nPage  = (int)((float)height / lastTweetBottom * si.nMax);
    SetScrollInfo(hWnd, SB_VERT, &si, TRUE);
}

A: Implement your scroll bars on your parent class, Not your child class. This will prevent repaint messages to the child class from causing the child class to completely redraw it's self. Don't handle wm_paint messages on your parent class, only in your child class. This will allow windows to do default processing on the scroll bar. And both windows need to be CS_HREDRAW | CS_VREDRAW.

A: You could try sending an extra WM_NCPAINT message to the column in your WM_SIZE handler. But I thought that happens automatically.
But I find the solution proposed by BrendanMcK to make use of a default listbox the winner. Pity it's not an answer.


App is brief for software software program but is regularly imply cell app (more specific) or computer coach (more general).
And its not that previous. the newest model was released contained by 20thirteen. Its a superb of traditional home windows software. MP3 NORMALIZER , no messg about. clothed to the purpose.
In: Youtube to mp3 downloader is the name for the shortcut keys that you pressure to carry out particular tasks; every software software has its own solidify of duties assigned to those keys?
MP3 VOLUME BOOSTER and speed adjustments are potential. consequently is audio scrubbing, which will be very useful. It doesnt help multi-monitoring therefore you possibly can solely edit personal stereo or mono audio files.
mp3gain : breed loads of audio editing software program, when you bushes a section of audio the remaining give shuffle again so that there arent any gaps. if you wish to take away murmur with out shuffling the audio, it is advisable mute or tranquility the section by means of high.
Is set in motion-supply software worthwhile?
I tried a variety of softwares that would obtain YouTube videos. nonetheless, lots of them doesn't assist converting the downloaded video to different codecs MP3. uphill until not too long ago, i found a video software called WinX HD Video Converter Deluxe. it may well simply and quickly obtain YouTube videos and immediately enable you convert them to in style codecs. the method is straightforward and fast. you may as well use it as a photograph slideshow maker and SD, HD and UHD video converter. highly useful.


text:
New "Rape Cop" Arthur Roldan Just As Rape-y As Old "Rape Cop" (Allegedly)
by James King
Arthur Roldan allegedly punched his pregnant ex-girlfriend in the face before threatening her with a gun and knife. Authorities say he then raped her.
As we reported yesterday, for the second time in less than a year, a New York City police officer is accused of committing a violent sexual attack on a woman. And if the allegations are true, the latest "Rape Cop" is just as much of a creep as the old "Rape Cop" — who currently is serving a prison sentence that will pretty much guarantee that he'll die behind bars.
The details of the latest "Rape Cop" case are pretty depraved — the alleged victim in the case is a pregnant stripper who used to date the officer, Arthur Roldan, and whom he allegedly punched in the face before threatening her with a knife and gun, and then raping her.
Roldan, 28, and the victim dated for about two years, but recently broke up.
As the story often goes, despite the breakup, the two recently started talking again, and the victim agreed to meet Roldan at a parking lot on Father Capodanno
Boulevard on Staten Island, where she performed oral sex on the officer Tuesday night.
The blowjob apparently wasn't enough for Roldan, though — when she refused to have sex with him, he allegedly punched her in the face, pulled out a gun, a knife, and forced her to have sex with him.
The woman went to police that night, and Roldan was arrested Wednesday. At the time of his arrest, police recovered a knife, a.32-caliber pistol, and his 9mm service weapon.
The first "Rape Cop," Michael Pena, used his service weapon during his violent attack on a school teacher last year. It's unclear whether the gun allegedly used in Roldan's case was his city-issued firearm.
Pena was found guilty earlier this year of three counts of predatory sexual assault. He was sentenced to 75 years to life in prison, which means — as we mentioned — that he will likely die behind bars.
Pena's case was pretty horrific — he drunkenly dragged his victim into a courtyard at gunpoint, where he sodomized and raped her repeatedly in broad daylight.
Roldan — a six-year veteran of the force — was booked on charges of rape, menacing, and assault.
More:arthur roldanCrimeMichael PenaNYPDpredatory sexual assaultraperape copsexual assault


It's been snowing as we all can see and the ski areas are getting lots more snow than we are seeing here in the capital district. It seems the higher in elevation you get the more snow they are getting; even if it rains here there is always a good chance for snow in the mountains. Don't let any rain dampen your spirits to go ski because there is some pretty good skiing here in the east.
Last week on Wednesday the 14th of December I went to Whiteface. Granted again not great amounts of snow on the roadsides during the drive up but when you looked up at the Whiteface terrain everything was covered and the skiing was FANTASTIC!
There were about 12 trails open but again everything was covered and as the day progressed more trails and lifts began to open. I am sure they are trying to save and make as much snow as they can for their big holiday week.
Thanks to the many weeks of early season snowfall, Vermont's resorts have welcomed over 8 feet of natural snowfall to their slopes; they have expanded their terrain offerings and snowmaking coverage as the conditions have been on a positive note for this early season.
Bromley Mountain Resort has already received about a quarter of their average annual snowfall so far this season, and Killington Mountain Resort continues to see large increases in coverage. They are rapidly approaching last season's total snowfall with 66" already fallen, including 18" in the last week. The holiday period in Killington is an exciting time, when operations are expanding with new trails, activities and attractions coming on line daily. They have lots of news this week, but most importantly, the skiing and riding conditions are the best we've seen in more than a year.
Consistently wintry weather, coupled with a healthy dose of natural snowfall, allowed the operations team to make serious expansion progress this week. They opened an engaging mix of natural snow trails, glades and snowmaking terrain, including the Needle's Eye area, which boosted the Beast's tally to more than 80 trails covering 359 acres. Future goals include Bear Mountain, within the next week, and Skyeship Base by the holiday. Check the Daily Report to follow the expansion progress.
With 18 inches of natural snowfall last week at Mount Snow, three more inches so far today the 22nd, and ideal snowmaking temperatures this week, they are prepared to make your holiday wishes come true.
If you're planning on going to Mount Snow this holiday season you can expect snow-covered trails for every member of the family, from beginner to expert to park-lover.
They're snowmaking team has been going to town and They're planning to open Chute, Fallen Timbers, Milky Way, Ego Alley, and Roller Coaster by the weekend. Park builds are happening now in Prospector, The Farm, and Junkyard, and Grommet just reopened with a fresh build.
You can also enjoy a variety of events throughout the week, from Grommet Jam to the Torchlight Parade and Fireworks to live music at Snow Barn. If you haven't made plans yet, there's still time to save on lift tickets as well as vacation packages at Mount Snow.
They are planning on opening Sprout, Promenade, Side Out, Rising Star, Day Break, Line Drive, Zip, and Moonshadow tomorrow the 23rd, which will bring their trail count to 70, which is over 60% of the mountain. In addition to our 371 skiable acres, they also have a variety of off-hill activities available for your holiday week. The Ice House is open for skating from 2 p.m. to 9 p.m. almost daily with the option to rent skates and helmets at the rink. The Okemo Valley Nordic Center is open from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. as well with options ranging from snowshoeing, cross-country skiing, and an indoor golf simulator. The Timber Ripper Mountain Coaster opens today and tomorrow from 12 p.m. until 5 p.m. Check Okemo's website for further time frames.
All in all there is plenty of snow to be skiing on at most ski areas in all of New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Everyone have a great holiday season and hope to see you on the slopes!
Last weekend nearly 200 Santa Clauses took over Sunday River Sunday morning for a holiday tradition. Sunday River had their 17th annual Santa Sunday where skiers and riders who dressed up as Santa Claus got an additional free lift ticket for the day if they made a donation to the Sunday River Foundation.
The event is meant to draw skiers to the slopes early in the season.
There were Santa's and Mrs. Claus's everywhere as you can see by the photo. And it's all for a good cause.
The money raised from the event will go to the Sunday River Foundation which helps fund community projects near the ski area. In years past upwards of $3000 was raised .
Since you missed the event at Sunday River or just did not want to drive to Maine from the Capital District there are 2 more opportunities to get to ski and ride for free as Santa coming up the next 2 weekend.
At Whiteface Mountain resort, Tis the season for snow, skiing, and Santa, and Whiteface Mountain is celebrating with Santa's Ski Free Day on Sunday, Dec.11. Skiers and riders who dress as Mr. or Mrs. Claus, participate in a group photo and arrive by 10 a.m. will receive a free lift ticket. Those who don't have a jolly red suit can donate a gently used winter coat or a new toy (valued over $10) and receive 50% off a lift ticket for the day. Contributions will be a gifted to someone in need this holiday season.
Weekend festivities also include the Lake Placid Holiday Village Stroll from Dec.9-11. With a skating party, Santa meet and greets and a bustling Main Street filled with holiday shopping deals, live music, and a tree lighting ceremony, the holiday tradition makes for a spirited and merry occasion at Whiteface Lake Placid.
Visit www http://www.whiteface.com/events/santas-ski-free-day or contact Jon Lundin at jlundin@orda.org or 518-523-1655 ext. 5313 for more information.
And if you don't want that Santa suit to go to waste you can do it again the following Sunday , December 18th at 10am at Windham Mountain Resort welcomes all skiing and riding Santa's in head-to-toe costumes. A free lift ticket will be given for anyone dressed as Santa for the day, plus 1 additional midweek non-holiday voucher. All skiing and riding Santa's will be required to pre-register. A minimum donation of $30 is requested at the time of registration. 100% of the registration fee will be given to the local food pantry at Hope Restoration Church in Windham, NY. Limited to 300 pre-registered guests. 8:00am: Pre-registered Santa check-in on the 2nd Floor, mountain side. 9:45am: Santa's to meet at D-Lift for donation presentation. 10:00am: Group chairlift ride, followed by ski or ride down What's Next. Check with Windham for more specific and pre- registration details.
I have attended numerous Santa days and the atmosphere is always exciting and great fun to participate or just watch all the Santa's struggling to ski in the baggy Santa outfits.


text:
NK Mladost je nogometni klub iz Zaboka.

Povijest

NK Mladost je osnovan 1938. godine kao HŠK Mladost. Prvi predsjednik kluba bio je August Vrančić. Prva utakmica je odigrana 10. travnja 1939. godine s reprezentacijom Zagorja i završila je pobjedom Mladosti 4:1. Jedno vrijeme poslije neovisnosti Hrvatske klub se zvao NK Mladost-Regeneracija i NK Mladost M-Profil.

Uspjesi

Najveći uspjeh u bivšoj državi je ostvaren 1961. godine kada Mladost nastupa u kvalifikacijama za popunu tadašnje druge savezne lige protiv NK Maribora, te u Zaboku 18. lipnja 1961. gubi 0:3, a u Mariboru 25. lipnja 1961. pobjeđuje 3:2 no ne uspjeva ostvariti prolaz u viši rang natjecanja.

Najveći uspjeh u okviru hrvatske nogometne lige je igranje u 3. HNL.

U sezoni 2008./09. bila je jesenski prvak 4. HNL -  Središte A.

Vanjske poveznice

 NK Mladost Zabok - službena stranica

Mladost
Zabok


Based on the eagerly awaited 2018 sequel to The Incredibles, this spectacular story about Supers is perfect for any hero-loving child. The Parr family may sometimes struggle to keep their Super powers secret, but at the end of they day they're always there for each other. Your child joins them in the story where they tackle new challenges, but can they defeat a new foe? This book will contain the recipient's name throughout the text, and can contain their name and a personalized message on the first page.


text:
Facts about Carlos Fuentes
Carlos Fuentes died at 83 years old
Born: November 11, 1928
Died: May 15, 2012
Birthplace: Panama City, Panama
Best known as: The author of 'The Old Gringo' and 'The Death of Artemio Cruz'
Buy from Amazon.com: Books by Carlos Fuentes
4 Good Links
Biography and interview from the Academy of Achievement
Carlos Fuentes Dies at 83
Obituary from the New York Times
A Conversation with Carlos Fuentes
Audio interview from 1987
Champion of Mexican Democracy
Essay on his political impact
Carlos Fuentes Biography
Carlos Fuentes was one of the most influential Mexican writers of the 20th century and the author of The Old Gringo (1985), the first Mexican novel to become a bestseller in the United States.
He was the son of a diplomat and grew up all over South America, as well as in the United States. He went to universities in Mexico and in Geneva, Switzerland, where he began his career as a diplomat. His first published collection of stories was The Masked Days in 1954, and his first two novels, When the Air is Clear (1958) and The Good Conscience (1959) brought him international success.
Fluent in both English and Spanish, he wrote in Spanish and was a major figure in "El Boom," a literary explosion that helped define Latin American literature in the last half of the 20th century. He was famously a friend and rival to Gabriel Garcia Marquez, and later in life feuded with Octavio Paz over political differences. Much of his career was spent teaching, mostly in the United States, although during the 1960s he was denied a visa for his leftist sympathies.
Politics and Mexican culture were central to his writing as well as his public life, and Fuentes was influential in both realms, winning international awards for literature and a reputation as a champion for democracy.
His other novels include Aura (1962), The Death of Artemio Cruz (1962), Terra Nostra (1975) and Destiny and Desire (2011).
Something in Common with Carlos Fuentes
Scorpio Writers (42)
Tina Louise is the Last Surviving Cast Member of 'Gilligan's Island'
Katarina Witt on the cover of Playboy


On January 31, 2019, Law No. 21,132 came into force, which strengthens the authorities of the National Fisheries Service ("SERNAPESCA") and adds new predicate offenses to Law No. 20,393 regarding criminal liability of legal entities.
This criminal offense penalizes all who without authorization, or contravening their respective obligations or infringing applicable regulations, insert or cause the insertion into a sea, river, lake or other body of water, of chemical, biological or physical pollutants that cause damage to hydro-biological resources (e.g. fish, mollusks, crustaceans, among other species).
This criminal offense penalizes the processing, transformation, transportation, commercialization or storage of banned hydro-biological resources, and the processing, commercialization and storage of products derived from them.
This criminal offense penalizes unauthorized extractive activities in restricted areas of management and exploitation of seabed resources.
This criminal offense penalizes anyone who processes or stores collapsed or overexploited hydro-biological resources, or products derived from them, without evidencing the legal procurement of such resources.
Companies —particularly but not exclusively those in the fishing industry— should update their compliance programs to incorporate policies and procedures to mitigate these new risks.


Dropbox allows you to store your Android device photos in cloud and access them from anywhere. In this post, we will tell you some simple methods to transfer photos from Android phone to Dropbox.
Dropbox is a cloud storage and file synchronization service that lets user store their files on the cloud servers. Cloud storages like Dropbox come in very handy when you want to save storage space on your Android device but don't want to delete the data on it. So, you either delete the photos or store them somewhere else like cloud storage. Choosing the latter will ensure that you can access your pictures any time you require. So, it will surely come in handy to learn how to transfer photos from Android phone to Dropbox.
Surprisingly, even though storing pictures on cloud storages like Dropbox has very common these days, most people don't know how to transfer pictures from Android phone to Dropbox. So, in this article, we will give you some solutions on how to transfer pictures from Android phone to Dropbox.
Dropbox is one of the most popular cloud storage services for transferring photos to the cloud. You can use the Dropbox application to transfer your Android photos to Dropbox. After transferring your Android phone photos to Dropbox, they will be available to you anywhere as long as you have an internet connection. Below we will give you some solutions on how to transfer photos from Android phone to Dropbox.
Dropbox has a feature called camera upload that lets you transfer your Android photos to Dropbox using the Dropbox app on your smartphone. Follow the steps to learn how to transfer Android photos Dropbox using camera upload.
Step 1 Tap on the Dropbox app icon on your Android device to open the Dropbox app and sign in to your Dropbox account.
Step 2 Tap on the Menu icon and it will display a slide menu.
Step 3 Now, go to Settings by tapping on the Gear icon.
Step 4 Scroll down to the "Camera uploads" section and then tap on "Turn on Camera uploads" option.
You can also choose whether you want to use camera upload for both photos and videos or just photos, whether you want to upload using Wi-Fi, or Data plan, or the time of uploading.
You can also transfer photos from Android phone to Dropbox manually using the Dropbox app. This is very helpful when you only want to transfer specific photos to Dropbox instead of automatically uploading every photo. Follow the steps to learn how to transfer pictures from Android to Dropbox manually.
Step 1 Launch the Dropbox app and then click on "+" icon on the app home screen.
Step 2 Tap on "Upload photos or videos" and then select photos you want to transfer to Dropbox.
Step 3 After selecting the photos, just click on "Upload" and the photos will be uploaded to your Dropbox account.
When your Android device storage is running out due to tons of photos, you can transfer them to Dropbox. Not only it will save space on your device, but also your photos will be available to you anywhere. In this article, we have given two methods on how to transfer pictures from Android phone to Dropbox. For further doubt, please write down in the comments below.