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Lee Rainie
Elevating Digital Truth for Societal Wellbeing
About the Talk
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Lee Rainie of the Pew Research Center comes on the Imagine Solutions stage to talk about the essential nature of truth and trust. These are core components of a healthy society, the potency of which has been diminished in recent times. Why is truth struggling so significantly? Dark digital corners are having a damaging effect, spreading false information immediately and extensively. We live in a world of total noise, making it hard to sort through information. Creating doubt further creates confusion, which influences our opinions even of each other. Our attention has been monetized. Watch and listen to think about how we begin to counteract these forces, drawing on historical lessons.
I have a solution to the last question which you just clone Randy antic that would solve all of our problems I'm here to talk about truth and it's having a Brillion everywhere you look the institutions that were designed many decades ago to advance truth faced new struggles in the age of new information in the digital spaces educators scientists journalists civic leaders business leaders and we at the Pew Research Center studies these issues about truth and Trust because they're so central to the health of us a society and we're finding that American culture is very downcast these days just before the 2016 election 81 percent of American adults said the supporters of Donald
Trump and the supporters of Hillary Clinton could not agree on the basic facts of what's going on in the world just after the election 64% of Americans said that fake news was causing a lot of confusion about what was going on in public life the problem has even reached the personal level 26% of all Americans including almost half of those under age 30 say that false information about them has been posted online and damaged their reputations I want to tell you a story now about why truth struggles to find a foothold in this new environment and I want to stress though that even though I'm talking about a major news event the dynamic I'm describing applies to almost every other domain where people care about truth and are trying to advance the story of truth the story begins last October first when Steven paddock broke through the window
of his hotel room overlooking the Las Vegas Strip and began firing into the crowd below he ended up killing 58 people and wounding 422 others within minutes of the start of the shooting a discussion broke out on Paul channel of the 4chan online message board now for chann is a very dark corner of the internet and the Paul channel is specifically devoted to politically incorrect conversation the users on that channel immediately began to gameplan how they could make it look like the shooter was a left-winger control the narrative don't let fake news control and narrative was one of the discussion threads they led shortly after the police announced that paddock the shooters ex-wife Mary Lou Dan Lee was a
person of interest the trolls began to focus on another target in their work and it was Dan Lee's ex-husband a guy named Jerry Dan Lee who had nothing to do with the shooting but he was a really convenient target because his facebook profile showed that he was a supporter of MSNBC's Rachel Maddow and of the left-leaning group moveon.org as the 4chan pal channel built sympathetic websites began to adopt the story that mr. Dan Lee not the real shooter paddock was the shooter and it was potentially tied to his liberal politics this is the story that ran on gateway pundit over on Google which is primed it during the course of major breaking news stories to emphasize brand new information that comes to the story and particularly to elevate a lot of stories that were getting search queries it picked up the conversation about Dan Lee being the
shooter again he's not the guy patek is the guy but Google elevated that story to a prominent place on its news page on Facebook the news elevating system ended up highlighting a story that was false that came out from the russian-backed new system Sputnik that said that Isis the terror group was trying to claim credit for the shooting and finally on YouTube there were prominent videos that falsely claimed that the people who were being interviewed on TV about the shooting in other words the people who had been shot at were actually so-called crisis actors who had been hired by the government to stage fake news stories that would help liberal causes the unfolding info war over the worst mass shooting in American history showed how a band of extremists
conspiracy theorists and foreign propagandists could essentially hijack a news story and use the tools of social media to sow a lot of confusion so this story I think illustrates the three big things that make it hard for truth to find its footing these days the first thing is that we live in a world of total noise there's so much more information swirling around now it's just hard to sort through it even for ordinary folks in ordinary times what the new anti truthers exploit now is how confusing it is to get through this system and they're not so much planting information in the hopes that people will believe false facts their real motive is just to sow enough doubt and confusion that the people who care about the facts give up in their search and begin to distrust the institutions that are trying to deliver the truth to them there's a wonderful word for that
process and it was coined by Stanford history professor Robert Procter the word is AG Natale G and it combines two Greek words AG no not knowing low G the science of not knowing it turns out the new anti truthers are wonderful at the practice of AG Natale G in a world overflowing with information the mere act of creating doubt in people's minds turns out to be a spectacularly successful strategy for disrupt disrupting social cohesion the second reason truth struggles in this the current environment it ties to political polarization and how it affects people's judgments about civic information and even about each other in the past generation America's political parties have ideologically purified themselves generation ago there used to be a decent share of people who were liberal who
called themselves Republican and there were a decent share of people who were conservative who called themselves Democrats and those are the people who often got together and figured out how to come up with solutions and new programs but nowadays the average Republican is more conservative than 93% of Democrats the average Democrat is more liberal than 94% of Republicans the center is vanishing in addition at the personal level people in both camps now increasingly say that those on the other side are awful human beings who are trying to destroy the country increasingly people in both can't say the other side is full of people who are closed-minded immoral dishonest and unintelligent in it so that means this environment now is full of people who are not necessarily motivated by sharing facts and coming up with solutions or coming up with at least a shared version of experience they're motivated to mount
arguments that make my team look great and the other team look despicable the third problem that's highlighted by this story is that the new businesses tied to the attention economy the social media platforms incentivize what political cartoonists Tim Crider calls outrage porn the business model of these companies of course is to gather up as much of our attention as possible and then sell it to advertisers and facts and information don't engage people nearly as much as the emotionally incendiary stuff does that's what keeps people coming back for likes and clicks and stuff like that so these systems are arranged to outrage folks and then exploit to non-human actors algorithms and BOTS to sort of guarantee that the stuff that I get in my info stream on a social media platform
lights up my emotional hot buttons and the stuff you get in your streams lights up yours oftentimes we don't even share the same facts it's a formula for alienation so how do we start making progress against these forces a great place to sort of course is the lessons of history American scholar Elizabeth Eisenstein wrote a magnificent book called a printing press as an agent of change in which she looked at the world after the Year 1450 when the printing press came into being and described all the changes that came when information became much much cheaper to produce and much easier to spread well it turns out that some of the prominent beneficiaries of the printing press were the fake news promoters of the time it was people who believed in alchemy people who practice witchcraft people who subscribed to the occult people who practiced folklore they turns out that those kinds of
groups got about another hundred and fifty years worth of life because they were so effective at exploiting these new communication mechanisms to spread the word about themselves and find supporters of course a couple of generations after the printing press was invented we did get the Scientific Revolution and some really wonderful ideas about truth and facts one of the breakthroughs from the Scientific Revolution was the idea the truth is best established through a process of induction that is gathering facts and evidence and analyzing them that's a much better way to get to the truth in the process of deduction which is just thinking about stuff really hard a second breakthrough idea was the notion that truth is best extracted from data that are gathered dispassionately not by self-promoting activists but people who are curious and wanted to know answers to big questions and one of the best ways to show dispassion in the gathering
of evidence is to use numbers and statistics you know they're only a couple of hundred years old as an idea but it's a wonderful way to show that you are using an honest method of gathering in for the third big idea that came out of this Scientific Revolution is the truth is really not conclusively established until the researchers share their data and findings with others so that they can be fact checked and verified by other analysts it turns out that when we talk to thousands of technologists about the future of truth those lessons from history came up pretty prominently in a lot of their answers we recently did a survey of experts both technologists and scholars about the future of truth and about half of the respondents said the things in the coming years are going to get better for truth and about half said that's not the case the people who are most downcast in their ideas tended to
be technologists who basically said trolls will always find ways to use new tools to torment people they basically said human nature is immutable and manipulable we're all tribal and we can all be victimized by any of these new tools those who gave the more hopeful answers did cite some of those lessons from history and they had a somewhat larger time frame to their answers they basically said the stuff we were talking about can be applied to the current moment in the moment in the future for starters we are in the golden age of data and even more so in the future and the people who practice induction who analyze data and make meaning out of it are going to have a field day for as far into the future as anybody can imagine the second thing they talk about is that there are software tools that are better and better and better at analyzing those data and increasingly are able to minimize human biases in the
analysis of the data and to marginalize the worst actors in the new information ecosystem the third idea they embraced from the past is more education you might remember that one of the great things that came pretty far after the Scientific Revolution was we finally got universal education the hopeful technologists say that we're gonna move into an era where it'll be essential for all of us to develop new literacies and new learning based around tech savviness information savviness and even algorithm savviness so the world these hopeful people are thinking about it's essentially a cyborg world a world where humans and artificial intelligence machines work together to elevate truth and depress falsity which brings me to a wonderful story about the cyborg the human machine search for truth that's
told by a great technology pundit named Nicholas Thompson you might remember Watson the artificial intelligence system developed by IBM IBM Watson became famous because it beat the Galactic world champion of Jeopardy Ken Jennings in a televised showdown so Watson beat a human being great day well there were lots of practice runs of Watson before you know he went on camera or whatever it is he she it I I beat Ken Jennings so they went through lots of practice runs and during one of the practice runs the question that was put to Watson was complete this phrase Toto I have a feeling where and Watson immediately came up with the answer we're not in Kansas anymore one of the special features of Watson of course that it spits out lots of other answers and then rank orders them by the
probability that they're correct so the second answer Watson gauge to the Toto question was the name Steve poor Carol turns out poor Carol was this keyboardist for the pop band toto so linking him and Toto wasn't a ridiculous thing even though it was it was wasn't the right answer but Watson's third answer to the Toto question was ridiculous the kung-fu actor Jackie Chan now nobody could make sense of that and when Nicholas Thompson the pundit wrote up a piece about the the Watson preparations for the showdown he basically used the Jackie Chan answers as an example of showing AI might be great but it's it's got a ways to go still because it still generates ridiculous answers like this so Thompson's writes up this thing in his piece appears in the New York Times on its website and it turns out that a
commenter on his piece on the website figured out the Toto Jackie Chan connection so here I'm going to show you a scene from the movie rush hour one where at street savvy American detective is working with a detective from Hong Kong played by Jackie Chan the Chan character is in the United States to investigate a kidnapping and in this scene he and the American are discussing how they're going to work together sorry sorry sorry sorry one more back okay yes it is no it ain't this is the United States of James Carter now I'm the president I'm the Emperor I'm the king I'm Michael Jackson you Tito your ass belong to me okay now here's a scene
from the sequel to that movie rush hour to reach the two detectives are joined and it refers to this scene while they're in a karaoke bar in Hong Kong this place the moves that we gain in China you think this give me I'm from Los Angeles we invented gangs give me that badge no your civilian in Hong Kong and Michael Jackson yuck puto mean Tito Toto is what we ate last night for dinner next minute bitch and that's how todo got into Jackie Chan's life so Jackie Chan wasn't a ridiculous answer to the Jeopardy question maybe that's the cyborg story of how we're gonna get to the truth using humans and machines the artificial intelligence system will be an essential component of it but it will take that commenter on that website that human actor to put the final puzzle piece together and get to the truth thanks very much
Lee Rainie History & Contemporary Society Director, Pew Research Center
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The Journal of Agricultural Science (5)
International Astronomical Union Colloquium (3)
Journal of American Studies (3)
Symposium - International Astronomical Union (2)
Advances in Animal Biosciences (1)
Bulletin of the British Association for American Studies (1)
Journal of the International Neuropsychological Society (1)
Mineralogical Magazine (1)
British Association for American Studies (3)
International Neuropsychological Society INS (1)
Mineralogical Society (1)
Identifying transmission routes of Streptococcus pneumoniae and sources of acquisitions in high transmission communities
B. M. ALTHOUSE, L. L. HAMMITT, L. GRANT, B. G. WAGNER, R. REID, F. LARZELERE-HINTON, R. WEATHERHOLTZ, K. P. KLUGMAN, G. L. RODGERS, K. L. O'BRIEN, H. HU
Journal: Epidemiology & Infection / Volume 145 / Issue 13 / October 2017
Identifying the transmission sources and reservoirs of Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP) is a long-standing question for pneumococcal epidemiology, transmission dynamics, and vaccine policy. Here we use serotype to identify SP transmission and examine acquisitions (in the same household, local community, and county, or of unidentified origin) in a longitudinal cohort of children and adults from the Navajo Nation and the White Mountain Apache American Indian Tribes. We found that adults acquire SP relatively more in the household than other age groups, and children 2–8 years old typically acquire in their own or surrounding communities. Age-specific transmission probability matrices show that transmissions within household were mostly seen from older to younger siblings. Outside the household, children most often transmit to other children in the same age group, showing age-assortative mixing behavior. We find toddlers and older children to be most involved in SP transmission and acquisition, indicating their role as key drivers of SP epidemiology. Although infants have high carriage prevalence, they do not play a central role in transmission of SP compared with toddlers and older children. Our results are relevant to inform alternative pneumococcal conjugate vaccine dosing strategies and analytic efforts to inform optimization of vaccine programs, as well as assessing the transmission dynamics of pathogens transmitted by close contact in general.
Childhood adversity and midlife suicidal ideation
S. A. Stansfeld, C. Clark, M. Smuk, C. Power, T. Davidson, B. Rodgers
Childhood adversity predicts adolescent suicidal ideation but there are few studies examining whether the risk of childhood adversity extends to suicidal ideation in midlife. We hypothesized that childhood adversity predicts midlife suicidal ideation and this is partially mediated by adolescent internalizing disorders, externalizing disorders and adult exposure to life events and interpersonal difficulties.
At 45 years, 9377 women and men from the UK 1958 British Birth Cohort Study participated in a clinical survey. Childhood adversity was prospectively assessed at the ages of 7, 11 and 16 years. Suicidal ideation at midlife was assessed by the depressive ideas subscale of the Revised Clinical Interview Schedule. Internalizing and externalizing disorders were measured by the Rutter scales at 16 years. Life events, periods of unemployment, partnership separations and alcohol dependence were measured through adulthood.
Illness in the household, paternal absence, institutional care, parental divorce and retrospective reports of parental physical and sexual abuse predicted suicidal ideation at 45 years. Three or more childhood adversities were associated with suicidal ideation at 45 years [odds ratio (OR) 4.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.67–6.94]. Psychological distress at 16 years partially mediated the associations of physical abuse (OR 3.41, 95% CI 2.29–5.75), sexual abuse (OR 4.99, 95% CI 2.90–11.16) with suicidal ideation. Adult life events partially mediated the association of parental divorce (OR 6.34, 95% CI −7.16 to 36.75) and physical (OR 9.59, 95% CI 4.97–27.88) and sexual abuse (OR 6.59, 95% CI 2.40–38.36) with suicidal ideation at 45 years.
Adversity in childhood predicts suicidal ideation in midlife, partially mediated by adolescent internalizing and externalizing disorders, adult life events and interpersonal difficulties. Understanding the pathways from adversity to suicidal ideation can inform suicide prevention and the targeting of preventive interventions.
3.17. MACHO RR Lyrae stars in the Galactic bulge: the spatial distribution
D. Minniti, C. Alcock, D. Alves, K. Cook, S. Marshall, R. Allsman, T. Axelrod, K. Freeman, B. Peterson, A. Rodgers, K. Griest, M. Lehner, T. Vandehei, A. Becker, M. Pratt, C. Stubbs, A. Tomaney, P. Quinn, D. Bennett, W. Sutherland, D. Welch
Journal: Symposium - International Astronomical Union / Volume 184 / 1998
We have analyzed a sample of 1150 type ab, and 550 type c RR Lyrae stars found in 24 of 94 bulge fields of the MACHO database. These fields cover a range in Galactocentric distances from 0.3 to 1.6 kpc. In combination with the data on the outer bulge fields of Alard (1997) and Wesselink (1987), here we present the surface density distribution of bulge RR Lyrae between 0.3 and 3 kpc.
Properties of LMC Planetary Nebulae and parent populations in the MACHO database
D.R. Alves, C. Alcock, R. A. Allsman, T. S. Axelrod, A. C. Becker, D. R. Bennett, K. H. Cook, K. C. Freeman, K. Griest, J. Guern, M. J. Lehner, S. L. Marshall, D. Minniti, B. A. Peterson, P. J. Quinn, M. R. Pratt, A. W. Rodgers, C. W. Stubbs, W. Sutherland, D. Welch
The MACHO microlensing experiment's time-sampled photometry database contains blue and red lightcurves for nearly 9 million stars in the central bar region of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). We have identified known LMC Planetary Nebulae (PN) in the database and find one, Jacoby 5, to be variable. We additionally present data on the "parent populations" of LMC PN, and discuss the star formation history of the LMC bar.
A New Look at the Blazhko Effect in RR Lyrae Stars with High-Quality Data from the MACHO Project
D. W. Kurtz, C. Alcock, R. A. Allsman, D. Alves, T. S. Axelrod, A. C. Becker, D. P. Bennett, K. H. Cook, K. C. Freeman, K. Griest, M. J. Lehner, S. L. Marshall, D. Minniti, B. A. Peterson, M. R. Pratt, P. J. Quinn, A. W. Rodgers, C. W. Stubbs, W. Sutherland, A. Tomaney, D. L. Welch, The MACHO CoUaboration
Journal: International Astronomical Union Colloquium / Volume 176 / 2000
We present the first results of the analysis of 22 Blazhko stars. We find: 1) Blazhko RRab stars that are nearly pure amplitude modulators; 2) Blazhko RRab stars that have both amplitude and phase modulation; 3) A Blazhko RRab star that has an abrupt period change; 4) Proof of the Blazhko effect in RRc stars. Our data show the character of the amplitude and phase modulations of the light curves over the Blazhko cycles far better than has been previously possible.
Frequency Analysis of a Subset of Fundamental Mode RR Lyrae Stars from the MACHO Project Large Magellanic Cloud Database
D.L. Welch, G. Kovács, K.H. Cook, C. Alcock, R. Allsman, D.R. Alves, T. Axelrod, A. Becker, D. Bennett, A. Drake, K. Freeman, M. Geha, K. Griest, M. Lehner, S. Marshall, D. Minniti, C. Nelson, B. Peterson, P. Popowski, M. Pratt, P. Quinn, A. Rodgers, C. Stubbs, W. Sutherland, T. Vandehei, The MACHO Collaboration
We present the preliminary results of a frequency analysis of 1457 fundamental mode RR Lyrae (RR0) stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) from MACHO Project photometry. We find the same classes of pulsational behavior as were found in our earlier survey of first overtone RR Lyrae (RR1) stars. Variables whose prewhitened power spectra contain one or two peaks close to the main frequency component in the original power spectra are commonly known as Blazhko-type variables. The present analysis shows the overall frequency of Blazhko-type stars in the total RR0 population analysed to date to be ≈ 10%. This is lower than the often cited Galactic field/globular rate of 20-30% (Szeidl, 1988).
The incidence rate of Blazhko-type variability in the LMC appears to be about three times higher in RR0 stars than in RR1 stars. This puts important constraints on possible models of the Blazhko effect.
Frequency Analysis of the RRc Variables of the MACHO Database for the LMC
G. Kovács, C. Alcock, R. Allsman, D. Alves, T. Axelrod, A. Becker, D. Bennett, C. Clement, K. H. Cook, A. Drake, K. Freeman, M. Geha, K. Griest, D. W. Kurtz, M. Lehner, S. Marshall, D. Minniti, C. Nelson, B. Peterson, P. Popowski, M. Pratt, P. Quinn, A. Rodgers, J. Rowe, C. Stubbs, W. Sutherland, A. Tomaney, T. Vandehei, D. L. Welch, The MACHO Collaboration
We present the first massive frequency analysis of the 1200 first overtone RR Lyrae stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud observed in the first 4.3 yr of the MACHO project. Besides the many new double-mode variables, we also discovered stars with closely spaced frequencies. These variables are most probably nonradial pulsators.
Chemistry of Collapse and Disk Accretion
S. B. Charnley, S. D. Rodgers
Journal: Highlights of Astronomy / Volume 13 / 2005
Recent results relevant for the survival and chemical alteration of interstellar material at the nebular accretion shock are summarised.
Localization of the Trace Elements Iron, Zinc and Selenium in Relation to Anatomical Structures in Bovine Ovaries by X-Ray Fluorescence Imaging
Melanie J. Ceko, Katja Hummitzsch, Wendy M. Bonner, Jade B. Aitken, Kathryn M. Spiers, Raymond J. Rodgers, Hugh H. Harris
Journal: Microscopy and Microanalysis / Volume 21 / Issue 3 / June 2015
X-ray fluorescence (XRF) was used to image 40 histological cross-sections of bovine ovaries (n=19), focusing on structures including: antral follicles at different stages of growth or atresia, corpora lutea at three stages of development (II–IV), and capillaries, arterioles, and other blood vessels. This method identified three key trace elements [iron (Fe), zinc (Zn), and selenium (Se)] within the ovarian tissue which appeared to be localized to specific structures. Owing to minimal preprocessing of the ovaries, important high-resolution information regarding the spatial distribution of these elements was obtained with elemental trends and colocalizations of Fe and Zn apparent, as well as the infrequent appearance of Se surrounding the antrum of large follicles, as previously reported. The ability to use synchrotron radiation to measure trace element distributions in bovine ovaries at such high resolution and over such large areas could have a significant impact on understanding the mechanisms of ovarian development. This research is intended to form a baseline study of healthy ovaries which can later be extended to disease states, thereby improving our current understanding of infertility and endocrine diseases involving the ovary.
Nervus intermedius meningioma
B Rodgers, R Chamoun, K Newell, J Lin
Journal: The Journal of Laryngology & Otology / Volume 128 / Issue 6 / June 2014
To report a case of meningioma arising from the nervus intermedius.
This paper comprises a case report, literature review, and discussion regarding the presentation of a nervus intermedius meningioma, comparing and contrasting this to other relevant neoplasms of the internal auditory canal and cerebellopontine angle.
Tumours of the cerebellopontine angle include vestibular schwannomas, facial schwannomas and, more rarely, nervus intermedius schwannomas. The nervus intermedius is a division of the facial nerve at the cerebellopontine angle, with parasympathetic and afferent somatic components. Our patient presented with progressive hearing loss. An ipsilateral internal auditory canal mass at the fundus, as indicated by magnetic resonance imaging and electroneuronography, was suggestive of vestibular schwannoma. Intra-operative dissection revealed a nervus intermedius tumour. Histological evaluation indicated a meningioma rather than a schwannoma.
This is the first reported case of meningioma involving the nervus intermedius. The implications this pathology may have on surgical approach, facial nerve outcomes, and the need for improved pre-operative imaging and intra-operative monitoring are discussed. A review of the current literature on nervus intermedius tumour is provided.
Bayesian analysis of culture and PCR methods for detection of Campylobacter spp. in broiler caecal samples
M. E. ARNOLD, E. M. JONES, J. R. LAWES, A. B. VIDAL, F. A. CLIFTON-HADLEY, J. D. RODGERS, L. F. POWELL
Journal: Epidemiology & Infection / Volume 143 / Issue 2 / January 2015
The objective of this study was to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of a culture method and a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method for detection of two Campylobacter species: C. jejuni and C. coli. Data were collected during a 3-year survey of UK broiler flocks, and consisted of parallel sampling of caeca from 436 batches of birds by both PCR and culture. Batches were stratified by season (summer/non-summer) and whether they were the first depopulation of the flock, resulting in four sub-populations. A Bayesian approach in the absence of a gold standard was adopted, and the sensitivity and specificity of the PCR and culture for each Campylobacter subtype was estimated, along with the true C. jejuni and C. coli prevalence in each sub-population. Results indicated that the sensitivity of the culture method was higher than that of PCR in detecting both species when the samples were derived from populations infected with at most one species of Campylobacter. However, from a mixed population, the sensitivity of culture for detecting both C. jejuni or C. coli is reduced while PCR is potentially able to detect both species, although the total probability of correctly identifying at least one species by PCR is similar to that of the culture method.
Anionic salts and dietary 25-hydroxyvitamin D stimulate calcium availability in steers
J. J. McGrath, D. B. Savage, J. V. Nolan, N. J. Rodgers, R. Elliott
Journal: animal / Volume 7 / Issue 3 / March 2013
The influence of feeds containing varying dietary cation–anion differences (DCADs) with and without supplements of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) on urine pH and excretion of macro minerals was determined in fistulated crossbred steers (mean live weight 315 ± 45 kg). A basal forage diet comprising lucerne hay and wheat chaff was used, to which varying quantities of MgCl2 or K2CO3 were added to achieve four levels of DCAD: −300, 50, 150 or 250 mEq/kg dry matter (DM). Steers were allocated to one of six treatments, one treatment for each diet and a further treatment for both the 50 and 150 mEq/kg DCAD diets, which were supplemented with 25(OH)D at a rate of 3 mg/steer per day. Urine pH from steers offered the diets comprising DCADs of 50, 150 and 250 mEq/kg ranging from 8.3 to 8.8. In treatments not containing 25(OH)D with DCADs of 50 to 250 mEq/kg, there were no significant differences in urine pH or Ca excretion. However, steers offered the diet with a DCAD of −300 mEq/kg DM produced urine with a significantly lower pH (6.5 to 7.5). Daily output of Ca in urine was also significantly higher from steers given this diet. Supplementation with 25(OH)D significantly increased urinary Ca excretion from steers offered diets of DCADs 50 and 150 mEq/kg DM. Estimates of daily urinary Ca excretion, calculated using the ratio of creatinine to Ca in 'spot' urine samples, were less variable than those based on total collection (residual mean square of 0.54 and 0.63, respectively).
Influence of Cognitive Function on Speech and Articulation Rate in Multiple Sclerosis
Jonathan D. Rodgers, Kris Tjaden, Lynda Feenaughty, Bianca Weinstock-Guttman, Ralph H. B. Benedict
Journal: Journal of the International Neuropsychological Society / Volume 19 / Issue 2 / February 2013
We examined cognitive predictors of speech and articulation rate in 50 individuals with multiple sclerosis (MS) and 23 healthy controls. We measured speech and articulation rate from audio-recordings of participants reading aloud and talking extemporaneously on a topic of their choice (i.e., self-generated speech). Articulation rate was calculated for each speech sample by removing lexically irrelevant vocalizations and pauses of >200 ms. Speech rate was similarly calculated including pauses. Concurrently, the Minimal Assessment of Cognitive Function in Multiple Sclerosis (MACFIMS) battery, as well as standardized tests of sentence intelligibility and syllable repetition were administered. Analysis of variance showed that MS patients were slower on three of the four rate measures. Greater variance in rate measures was accounted for by cognitive variables for the MS group than controls. An information processing speed composite, as measured by the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT) and the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT), was the strongest predictor among cognitive tests. A composite of memory tests related to self-generated speech, above and beyond information processing speed, but not to oral reading. Self-generated speech, in this study, was not found to relate more strongly to cognitive tests than simple reading. Implications for further research are discussed. (JINS, 2012, 18, 1–8)
By Rob Aitken, Catrin Albrecht, Melvin E. Andersen, James C. Bonner, Matthew Boyles, Alison Buckley, Vincent Castranova, Michael P. DeLorme, Ken Donaldson, Rodger Duffin, Kirsten Gerloff, Helinor Johnston, Ali Kermanizadeh, Amie Lund, Laura MacCalman, Robert Maynard, Jacob D. McDonald, Robert R. Mercer, Fiona A. Murphy, Craig A. Poland, Jessica P. Ryman-Rasmussen, Roel P. F. Schins, Charanjeet Singh, Rachel Smith, Wenhui Song, Vicki Stone, Lang Tran, Klaus Unfried, Damien van Berlo, Julia Varet, David B. Warheit
Edited by Ken Donaldson, University of Edinburgh, Craig Poland, Rodger Duffin, University of Edinburgh, James Bonner, North Carolina State University
Book: The Toxicology of Carbon Nanotubes
Print publication: 21 June 2012, pp x-xiv
Observing GRBs and Supernovae at Gemini Observatory as Target of Opportunity (ToO)
M. Lemoine-Busserolle, K. C. Roth, E. R. Carrasco, B. W. Miller, A. W. Stephens, I. Jorgensen, B. Rodgers
Journal: Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union / Volume 7 / Issue S279 / April 2011
The Gemini Observatories primarily operate a multi-instrument queue, with observers selecting observations that are best suited to weather and seeing conditions. The Target of Opportunity (ToO) observing mode is intended to allow observation of targets that cannot be specified in advance but which have a well defined external trigger such as distant supernovae or Gamma Ray bursts. In addition, the instrument and configuration best suited to observe the ToO may depend on properties of the event, such as brightness and redshift which again are impossible to know in advance. Queue observing naturally lends itself to Target of Opportunity (ToO) support since the time required to switch between programs and instruments is very short, and the staff observer is trained to operate all the available instruments and modes. Gemini Observatory has supported pre-approved ToO programs since beginning queue operations, and has implemented a rapid (less than 15 minutes response time) ToO mode since 2005. ToOs comprise a significant fraction of the queue (20–25% of the highest ranking band) nowadays. We discuss the ToO procedures, the statistics of rapid ToOs observing at Gemini North Observatory, the science related to GRBs and supernovae that this important mode has enabled.
New materials for Organic Light-Emitting Diodes
S. Joshua Jacobs, Timothy P. Pollagi, Michael B. Sinclair, Rodger D. Scurlock, Peter R. Ogilby
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 10 February 2011, 55
We have investigated the performance of a class of heterocycles, 5,10-dihetera- 5,10-dihydroindeno[3,2b]indenes, as hole transport agents in simple double heterostructure organic light-emitting diodes with tris(8-hydroxyquinoline)aluminum (Alq). The best of these materials, 5,10-dihydroindolo[3,2b]indole, yields devices with luminance and lifetimes comparable to those obtained using N,N′-di-(3-methylphenyl)-N,N′- diphenyl-4,4′-diaminobiphenyl (TPD) as a hole transporting material.
By Shamsuddin Akhtar, Greg Albert, Sidney Allison, Muhammad Anwar, Haruo Arita, Amanda Barker, Mary Hanna Bekhit, Jeanna Blitz, Tyson Bolinske, David Burbulys, Asokumar Buvanendran, Gregory Cain, Keith A. Candiotti, Daniel B. Carr, Derek Chalmers, John Charney, Rex Cheng, Roger Chou, Keun Sam Chung, Anna Clebone, Frederick Conlin, Susan Dabu-Bondoc, Tiffany Denepitiya-Balicki, Jeanette Derdemezi, Anahat Kaur Dhillon, Ho Dzung, Juan Jose Egas, Stephen M. Eskaros, Zhuang T. Fang, Claudia R. Fernandez Robles, Victor A. Filadora, Ellen Flanagan, Dan Froicu, Allison Gandey, Nehal Gatha, Boris Gelman, Christopher Gharibo, Muhammad K. Ghori, Brian Ginsberg, Michael E. Goldberg, Jeff Gudin, Thomas Halaszynski, Martin Hale, Dorothea Hall, Craig T. Hartrick, Justin Hata, Lars E. Helgeson, Joe C. Hong, Richard W. Hong, Balazs Horvath, Eric S. Hsu, Gabriel Jacobs, Jonathan S. Jahr, Rongjie Jaing, Inderjeet Singh Julka, Zeev N. Kain, Clinton Kakazu, Kianusch Kiai, Mary Keyes, Michael M. Kim, Peter G. Lacouture, Ryan Lanier, Vivian K. Lee, Mark J. Lema, Oscar A. de Leon-Casasola, Imanuel Lerman, Philip Levin, Steven Levin, JinLei Li, Eric C. Lin, Sharon Lin, David A. Lindley, Ana M. Lobo, Marisa Lomanto, Mirjana Lovrincevic, Brenda C. McClain, Tariq Malik, Jure Marijic, Joseph Marino, Laura Mechtler, Alan Miller, Carly Miller, Amit Mirchandani, Sukanya Mitra, Fleurise Montecillo, James M. Moore, Debra E. Morrison, Philip F. Morway, Carsten Nadjat-Haiem, Hamid Nourmand, Dana Oprea, Sunil J. Panchal, Edward J. Park, Kathleen Ji Park, Kellie Park, Parisa Partownavid, Akta Patel, Bijal Patel, Komal D. Patel, Neesa Patel, Swati Patel, Paul M. Peloso, Danielle Perret, Anthony DePlato, Marjorie Podraza Stiegler, Despina Psillides, Mamatha Punjala, Johan Raeder, Siamak Rahman, Aziz M. Razzuk, Maggy G. Riad, Kristin L. Richards, R. Todd Rinnier, Ian W. Rodger, Joseph Rosa, Abraham Rosenbaum, Alireza Sadoughi, Veena Salgar, Leslie Schechter, Michael Seneca, Yasser F. Shaheen, James H. Shull, Elizabeth Sinatra, Raymond S. Sinatra, Neil Singla, Neil Sinha, Denis V. Snegovskikh, Dmitri Souzdalnitski, Julie Sramcik, Zoreh Steffens, Alexander Timchenko, Vadim Tokhner, Marc C. Torjman, Co T. Truong, Nalini Vadivelu, Ashley Vaughn, Anjali Vira, Eugene R. Viscusi, Dajie Wang, Shu-ming Wang, J. Michael Watkins-Pitchford, Steven J. Weisman, Ira Whitten, Bryan S. Williams, Jeremy M. Wong, Thomas Wong, Christopher Wray, Yaw Wu, Anthony T. Yarussi, Laurie Yonemoto, Bita H. Zadeh, Jill Zafar, Martha Zegarra, Keren Ziv
Edited by Raymond S. Sinatra, Jonathan S. Jahr, University of California, Los Angeles, School of Medicine, J. Michael Watkins-Pitchford
Book: The Essence of Analgesia and Analgesics
Print publication: 14 October 2010, pp xi-xviii
The addition of chemical amendments to dairy cattle slurry for the control of phosphorus (P) in runoff from grasslands
R B Brennan, O Fenton, M Rodgers, M G Healy
Journal: Advances in Animal Biosciences / Volume 1 / Issue 1 / April 2010
Half-lives of self-purification for various isotopes in soils of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone
J. Barescut, M. Bondarkov, Yu. Ivanov, D. Bondarkov, S. Gaschak, A. Maksimenko, R. K. Chesser, B. Rodgers, M. Zheltonozhskaya
Journal: Radioprotection / Volume 44 / Issue 5 / 2009
During 2001–2002 we investigated current contamination of soils in several places in the Chornobyl zone. We have measured the content of alpha emitting isotopes Pu, 241Am, 154,155Eu, 90Sr, and 137Cs in layers of soil up to the depth of 30 cm. By including the two mechanisms of migration: convection and diffusion in our model, we were able to estimate the ecological and effective half-lives of self-purification processes for these layers of soil. Effective half-lives vary from 20 to 400 years dependent upon the type of soil and the isotopes.
Smoking during pregnancy and offspring externalizing problems: An exploration of genetic and environmental confounds
Brian M. D'Onofrio, Carol A. van Hulle, Irwin D. Waldman, Joseph Lee Rodgers, K. Paige Harden, Paul J. Rathouz, Benjamin B. Lahey
Journal: Development and Psychopathology / Volume 20 / Issue 1 / Winter 2008
Previous studies have documented that smoking during pregnancy (SDP) is associated with offspring externalizing problems, even when measured covariates were used to control for possible confounds. However, the association may be because of nonmeasured environmental and genetic factors that increase risk for offspring externalizing problems. The current project used the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and their children, ages 4–10 years, to explore the relations between SDP and offspring conduct problems (CPs), oppositional defiant problems (ODPs), and attention-deficit/hyperactivity problems (ADHPs) using methodological and statistical controls for confounds. When offspring were compared to their own siblings who differed in their exposure to prenatal nicotine, there was no effect of SDP on offspring CP and ODP. This suggests that SDP does not have a causal effect on offspring CP and ODP. There was a small association between SDP and ADHP, consistent with a causal effect of SDP, but the magnitude of the association was greatly reduced by methodological and statistical controls. Genetically informed analyses suggest that unmeasured environmental variables influencing both SDP and offspring externalizing behaviors account for the previously observed associations. That is, the current analyses imply that important unidentified environmental factors account for the association between SDP and offspring externalizing problems, not teratogenic effects of SDP.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Home › Critical Replies › Clarifying Testimonial Independence, Aviezer Tucker
Clarifying Testimonial Independence, Aviezer Tucker
By SERRC on February 25, 2016 • ( 0 )
Author Information: Aviezer Tucker, Harvard University, avitucker@yahoo.com
Tucker, Aviezer. "Clarifying Testimonial Independence." Social Epistemology Review and Reply Collective 5, no. 2 (2016): 93-96.
The PDF of the article gives specific page numbers. Shortlink: http://wp.me/p1Bfg0-2Ex
Tucker, Aviezer. "The Generation of Knowledge from Multiple Testimonies." Social Epistemology (2015): 1-22. doi:10.1080/02691728.2015.1065927.
Zenker, Frank. "Having Knowledge from Multiple Testimonies: Reply to Tucker's 'The Generation of Knowledge from Multiple Testimonies'." Social Epistemology Review and Reply Collective 5, no. 1 (2016): 52-55.
Image credit: Phil Roeder, via flickr
Frank Zenker's "reply" to my article on the inference of knowledge from multiple testimonies is more of a clarifying restatement and a rejoinder. It mostly puts in even more precise terms the main ideas of the article. I cannot offer therefore much of a "reply to the reply," but a clarification to a clarification.
Frank notes correctly that the major innovation of the article is the development of a new concept of testimonial independence distinct of, and irreducible to, causal and conditional screening. The reason for this reconceptualization of independence is pragmatic, it works better, it is more useful for the inference of knowledge from multiple testimonies. Consequently, experts who specialize in the inference of knowledge from testimonies assume and use it, whether or not they conceptualize it abstractly.
A Third Way for Social Epistemology
In effect, I offer a methodological "third way" for social epistemology, to supplant the thought experimental and formal methods. Similarly, the philosophy of science advanced by studying paradigmatic cases of scientific knowledge that it described, or explicated, or explained, and generally fitted. I suggest that social epistemology can follow this method by modeling what the best experts in the inference of knowledge from multiple testimonies do. Almost everything we know about the human past, history, is via inferences from multiple testimonies. Human intelligence (HUMINT) analysts, detectives, and investigative journalists use similar methods to historians. Formal models should fit the best practices of these experts. Thought experiments can be useful and economic in simple cases. But when the experiments make otherworldly or implicit assumptions or are complex, their results are indecisive because they generate conflicting intuitions. Even when thought experiments are clear and decisive, examining real natural experiments rather than hypothetical contrived ones may be an easier and more reliable method for reaching the same results.
I argue that the inference of knowledge from testimonies is from the information they transmit, rather than from their propositional content, though there is much overlap. Transmitted information can contradict propositional content. For example, when a testimony is followed by a wink, or has patently false parts that the testifier knows the receiver would detect to discredit the content of testimonies exacted under duress, or when a polygraph attached to the testifier attests that the testimony is false. Silence, the absence of any propositional content, can also transmit information in a context, e.g. admission of guilt.
There are also sentences with propositional content that do not transmit any information. For example, when a testifier would give exactly the same testimony irrespective of context, like a politician who stays on message or a biased bigot who would scapegoat the same group (Mexicans, Jews, Moslems etc.) for anything anywhere. Frank mostly sticks with the information ontology of the article, but occasionally he drifts to talk of propositional content, though prevalent in received epistemologies of testimony, I reject its significance.
Testimonies as Information
Frank suggests that the interpretation of testimonies as information coherent or not, and consequently inferences drawn from the degree of coherence, are based on intersubjective agreements that are less than objective and certain. I argued recently that agreements may be explained by expertise in the sense of special knowledge and impartiality, and that this hypothesis can be shown to be more probable than the alternatives, coincidental agreement or bias, by using the Neyman-Rubin method, thus merging social epistemology with social science.[1]
I also argued that after the identification of areas where expertise probably generates knowledge, it is possible to remove the social scientific "scaffoldings." Once epistemologists can study "internal" methods that generate knowledge reliably and their epistemic and theoretical assumptions, epistemologists do not need to rely on "external" social indicators of knowledge such as special kinds of consensus or agreement. This conclusion applies also to the epistemology of testimony. Intersubjective expert (historians, analysts etc.) agreement on the interpretation of testimonies and the inference of knowledge from them indicated fallibly the likelihood of a reliable procedure for the inference of knowledge from testimonies. Once epistemologists study this procedure, as I have, I do not think it is necessary to rely on expert agreement. The coherence of information in its mathematical (e.g. Bar Hillel's) sense can at least in principle be theorized, formalized, and even mechanized in computer software.
The epistemology of testimony I proposed is founded on the inference of the existence and some of the properties of a common origin from its information preserving receivers. The inference of common origins of species in phylogeny is another type of such inference.[2] The distinction between phylogeny and the epistemology of testimony is not just in their application to different domains, but in relying on different information transmission theories. DNA transmitted from genome to genome across many generations is governed by different information transmission theories than the transmission of words from person to person. Still, at least in principle, it should be possible to reach a level of objectivity in the inference of knowledge from testimonies that is commensurable with that of scientific inferences in phylogeny.
Frank notes correctly that the inference of knowledge from multiple testimonies is difficult because the necessary "evidence 'need not be cheap to come by '… to offer an understatement …' correctly evaluating the probability of any such hypothesis faces all genuine issues of evaluating the inductive support that data lend to hypotheses." Sometimes, when there is insufficient evidence to lower the probability that testimonies cohere because they had separate sources of information that were tokens of the same type (e.g. all the witnesses hated the accused for different reasons and wished to frame him but there is no evidence for it) or to establish their independence (e.g. it was possible for them to meet and exchange information without leaving evidence for it) it is impossible to generate much knowledge from multiple testimonies.
In other cases the inference requires great skill, the use of appropriate theories about the transmission of information from person to person sometimes in institutional settings, and epistemic diligence in looking and knowing where to look for relevant evidence for the transmission of information, e.g. in which archives. For this reason, the inference of knowledge from testimonies is a profession (e.g. a historian, a human intelligence analyst, an investigative journalist & etc.) that requires study and apprenticeship. Since to a large extent expert knowledge of how to infer from multiple testimonies is tacit, the task of the social epistemologist as a social scientist is to make that tacit knowledge explicit; most explicit in a formal model, which I attempted in this article.
Knowledge and Inference
Finally, Frank doubts whether the result of the modular model of inference I presented can be called knowledge: "At low knowledge thresholds, of course, lots can pass for knowledge that might not be. And that may matter, too! In some of the jurisprudential literature, for instance, numerical likelihood ratios, n, are endorsed as sufficient for a judge or jury to convict a suspect on circumstantial grounds, i.e., when the assumption of the suspect's guilt must make the available evidence n times more likely than when assuming her innocence." Indeed, American legal procedures that follows different evidential standards for criminal and civil cases can lead to inconsistent results. To take celebrity cases as examples, Robert Blake and O. J. Simpson were at the same time innocent and guilty of murdering their wives according to criminal and civil law respectively, though obviously their innocence and guilt cannot be both true. If one feels comfortable with epistemic contextualism, as I do, this counterintuitive result has acceptable philosophical solutions. If not, then vice versa. Be that as it may, the epistemology of testimony does not raise in this respect new issues that are not addressed already in the debates about epistemic contextualism and Bayesian epistemology.
Tucker, Aviezer. Our Knowledge of the Past: A Philosophy of Historiography. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2004.
Tucker, Aviezer. "Epistemology as a Social Science: Applying the Neuman-Rubin Method to Explain Expert Beliefs." In Experts and Consensus in Social Science, edited by Carlo Martini and Marcel Boumans, 155-170. Dordrecht: Springer, 2014.
Zenker, Frank. "Having Knowledge from Multiple Testimonies: Reply to Tucker's 'The Generation of Knowledge from Multiple Testimonies'." Social Epistemology Review and Reply Collective 5, no. 1 (2016): 52-55
[1] Aviezer Tucker, in Carlo Martini and Marcel Boumans, eds. 2014, 155-170.
[2] I made this argument in: Aviezer Tucker, Our Knowledge of the Past: A Philosophy of Historiography, 2004.
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Tags: Aviezer Tucker, epistemic testimony, Frank Zenker, inference of knowledge from multiple testimonies, testimonial independence


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FCC Announces Closing of Bidding in Auction 105 (3550-3660 MHz Band)
On Tuesday, August 25, 2020, the FCC announced the conclusion of bidding in Auction 105, which awarded Priority Access Licenses in the 3550-3650 MHz band. Bidding concluded after 76 rounds, with gross proceeds reaching $4,585,663,345 and bidders winning more than 91.1% of available licenses (20,625 of 22,631 available licenses, the greatest number of spectrum licenses ever made available in a single FCC auction). The FCC anticipates that this band of licensed spectrum will further deployment of 5G, the Internet of Things, and other advanced spectrum-based services.
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We have a dedicated team of talented and inspirational staff who are committed to delivering the highest standards for each and every child in the school.
The school is led by Richard Hanson, who is supported by a dynamic team of senior leaders and staff. We strongly believe that outstanding staff are essential to delivering an outstanding education. We put a lot of effort into recruiting the very best people. We then invest heavily in their continuing professional training and development.
Richard Hanson (Principal)
Mr Hanson has worked in education for 25 years, including 17 years as a senior leader.
Throughout his career Mr Hanson has held a wide range of leadership roles; the knowledge and experience gained from these have enabled him to forge and then exhibit his genuine passion for ensuring every child, regardless of background or starting point, has high aspirations and achieves their full potential by developing their qualities and skills to prepare them for employment or further and higher education.
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Being born and raised in Bradford, Mr Hanson was excited and proud to be appointed Principal at Queensbury Academy and looks forward to embedding his principles to ensure the best educational provision for the pupils of this academy to make them highly employable individuals and respectable members of the local and wider community.
Mr Hanson has an Honour's degree in Musicianship from Salford University, a Post Graduate Certificate of Education from Leeds University and an NPQH from EMLC.
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Ms. Monaghan is Vice Principal at Queensbury Academy.
She has worked in education for 23 years; 11 years as a senior leader. She began her teaching career as an English teacher with Blackpool Borough County Council and joined Blackburn with Darwen Borough's School Improvement Team for 3 years, developing outstanding teaching and learning in the secondary schools in the area. She remained in the Blackburn area for a further 13 years, as a senior leader where during this time Ms. Monaghan delivered training for the SSAT (Specialist Schools and Academies Trust). Her areas of responsibility have continually been raising standards of education for all students through excellence in Teaching and Learning.
Ms. Monaghan has an Honour's degree in English with Music, from Surrey University and a Post Graduate Certificate of Education from Edge Hill University.
Graham Waters (Assistant Principal)
Mr Waters has worked in education for 32 years; 13 years as a senior leader. He began his teaching career as a Maths teacher at Hymers College, Hull then progressed to subject leader for mathematics at Priory School, Barnsley in 1996, before becoming first an Assistant Headteacher and then a Deputy Headteacher for 8 years at Mexborough Academy in Doncaster. Mr Waters has since held the post of SENDCO at Netherthorpe School, Chesterfield before joining the senior team at Queensbury Academy.
Being born and raised in Portsmouth, Mr Waters was happy to move away from his roots to undertake his first role in teaching in 1987! He then joined Queensbury Academy as Assistant Principal for Inclusion in April 2019. Mr Waters is determined to ensure that any barriers to learning are broken down so that all students at the academy can leave with the best possible life chances for their future career.
Mr Waters has an Honour's degree in Mathematics, Operational Research, Statistics and Economics from Warwick University.
Esther Waters (Assistant Principal)
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Mr Tanvir is a firm believer in developing independence through strategies that improve a pupil's ability to evaluate their learning.
Mr Tanvir has an Honour's degree in Pharmacy, from the University of Manchester and a Post Graduate Certificate of Education from Edge Hill University. He has also completed the NPQML (National Professional Qualification for Middle Leadership) and has recently started the NPQSL (National Professional Qualification for Senior Leadership.
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text:
Tornadoes still remember the 'hurt' from last year's Bucks loss
Dustin Kent
The Bay High players didn't need to be reminded of what happened in last year's matchup with Bozeman at Tommy Oliver Stadium when the Bucks stunned the Tornadoes 28-16 to notch their first-ever victory over a Bay County team other than North Bay Haven.
Even still, the Bay High coaches reminded them.
"It's something I remind them of on a regular basis," Bay coach Keith Bland said. "But they remember it. It was really the only game I think where we were in control in the beginning of the first half and let it slip away. (The Bucks) did a good job of rallying and making some adjustments and kind of got a score on a long drive at the end to win it.
"That was the loss last year that hurt the most of all of them. We thought we were evenly-matched with Bozeman even though we had a very young team. We felt it was more closely matched than any of the other games for us last year. But we remind them that even though Bozeman is a smaller school they still have a good football team with good football players."
The Bucks (1-3) come in as losers of three in a row though against high level competition in 1A powers Vernon and Sneads followed by last week's 28-14 defeat at the ends of 5A Arnold.
Bozeman was also riding a three-game losing skid going into last year's matchup with Bay, a game that Bucks coach Jason Griffin said was about much more than just adding a mark to the win column.
"I think Bozeman has traditionally been viewed as the little brother to the big (county schools)," Griffin said. "To go down to Tommy Oliver Stadium and beat Bay was a huge win for Bozeman. It was nice to go in there and earn some respect against another in-county team.
"The guys just want to prove that they can compete. We may not over the course of four quarters be able to compete against some of the bigger schools, but I think our guys appreciate the opportunity to compete with the other schools in town and show that we have some guys who can play football too."
Bozeman had an opportunity to perhaps add another statement victory against a big county school last week but couldn't hang on to a 14-13 halftime lead against Arnold at Gavlak Stadium, with the Marlins rallying for a 28-14 victory.
Despite the loss, Bland said that his main takeaway from that game is that the Bucks remain a very real threat to the Tornadoes (2-2) come Friday thanks primarily to their play in the trenches.
"They were very physical and matched up with Arnold's physicality throughout the game," he said. "They had some mistakes early that they were able to overcome, but when they come off the ball and reestablish the line of scrimmage, you can see the angles where they're trying to run the ball. I didn't see many busted assignments. They're very well-coached in that and they continue to get better.
"That's what scares you as a coach to see a team kind of gaining momentum and confidence. They can make plays and make things happen. I know we're a 4A school and they're a 1A school, but they beat us last year so we know anything can happen."
Griffin said he has been happy with his team's progress throughout the season, even if that isn't reflected by the Bucks' record, and that they would need to take another step forward Friday to beat a Bay team that appears to be much-improved from 2019.
"They're a much better football team than they were a year ago," he said. "They've got that running back, CJ Campbell, he's a pretty special player. He's a talented guy. That alone makes them a much better football team having a guy like that. But they're also more experienced and pretty good up front on both sides of the ball. It will be a tougher challenge for us this year than it was a year ago."
The 5-foot-11, 180-pound Campbell is coming off of his most impressive performance to date in last week's 36-33 road win over Blountstown, rushing 24 times for 254 yard and four touchdowns.
While Campbell's offensive output has been crucial to the Tornadoes' turnaround this year, Bland said his impact has gone well beyond rushing yards and touchdowns.
"It's his leadership, and it's not only that he does it on offense, but he's also a leader on defense and even special teams," Bland said. "You know he's gonna have a good game if you give him the opportunity. As our line gets more experienced from working together I think he'll continue to have good games as a football player.
"But even the games where we've had losses he's had good statistics, but we just didn't win as a team and I think that bothers him more than anything when we don't have success as a team. He's got that mentality and temperament of what a leader should have. But if he can get going he is pretty fast and he runs physical and does all the things that you want to see as a football player carrying the ball."
The victory over Blountstown, which avenged a 40-6 defeat at the hands of the Tigers in 2019, was a big boost to team morale, Bland said, though Tigers hope to avoid the ensuing letdown from their first victory this year over Arnold 29-24, which was followed by a 35-0 shutout loss to Marianna.
"There was a little more pep in their step and a little more swagger when they walk around a little bit more self confidence," he said of his players' mood in practice this week. "You definitely see that after beating a good team like Blountstown and winning a close game, so there's a lot of good positives for them.
"You can see the self confidence growing and once you get to that point of winning it's a state of mind that you always expect victory, but you also have to know how hard you have to work to win games. We're harping on enjoying that feeling but remembering how hard you have to work to maintain it."


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This is the 3rd and final part in this series. The previous parts are here – Part-1 and Part-2.
He ran away from the 2014 LS elections. His 2009 election was disputed in court and the Late Jayalalithaa called it a fraud but P Chidambaram has now made a back-door entry to the Parliament. He now lectures us on demonetisation with puerile nonsense. The media and even RW folks call him a "liberal". There is nothing liberal about PC. He's another Commie parading as a liberal. Some of his economic decisions are nothing but dictated by Commie doctrines. He now claims "Demonetisation is the biggest scam…. This is an absurd, thoughtless move, and no one in the world has a good word for it. Every major newspaper and economist has condemned it". Which are these major newspapers or economists? All junk economists like MMS and Amartya Sen? The very people who were irresponsible with our economy and country. The very people who made scamming their natural birth-right. Read about PC in "How India's intellectuals spread lies" (On the right side of the page click on "Contents" and pick the chapter on PC).
Guy on the street even says Kejriwal has collected only black money in cash. I don't think that's a great secret with people. I have picked only one of many videos. The only place where Arvind Kejriwal can now peddle his nonsense is on TV, particularly NDTV. And the scowl and the glum look on the faces tells you a story by itself.
The quote is attributed to Cicero from a speech in the Roman senate although the entire part cannot be confirmed as his. But the words still hold a lot of meaning. The Commie ideology, cult and practice is an enemy of progress and mankind. It has died in many parts of the world. The sooner the "Left-over" nonsense dies in India, the better for her people and the country.
In Marathi, there is a saying that some people will even chop their own nose to spite others. The Left-overs have reached that stage now...hope they change from endangered species to extinct soon!
Sir with this you have put Sri.Modi on notice and expects him to tighten screw further.Now the only recluse for Intellegentia is to prove He is also curruptive.But the irony is they follow the pied pipper Pappu as their leader.Shame on Bushans and their Legal lumineries.The best write-up from my respected SM friend.Keep going.
I've been reading your blog since a long time. This is off topic. For some reason video doesn't play on phone. On desktop it does, but it does not open the video on its YouTube link. Observed this for a while now, thought i should let you know.
Yes the videos never work on phones.
As expected your blog has started ripples in my friend circle. Since college days we were Left inclined, but now we have different perspective about LeftLibs perceptions.
Well written piece. No doubt black money with everyone will some how get redistributed and enter the banking system. In any situation there will be people who would make money. It is demand and supply situation. Most importantly shall we see excess currency deposited in banks till 30th December. That would open doors of a big scam if noticed.
Brilliant work and Perfect timing ! all those commies who browse by the page secretly..Its over!!!
The original commie leader who put India on the road to poverty was JL Nehru. How many people are aware that when WW2 ended India was one of the very few countries who profited from it. Britain ended the war owing India huge sums in sterling credits, which they kept paying till the mid Fifties. All this while JLN squandered the credit on his pet Stalinesque fantasies. Britain pulled itself out of the muck to again become a developed country. India is... well... when i see Venezuela, i think, there but for the grace of god, goes India.
are sick and tired of jerks like D RajA, Sitaram Yechury and the whole lot Bong commies who have collectively lost ALL narratives. Less said about the MSM #PRESSTITUTES the better. They have been reduced to beggars.
There are three levels of commies seen in India viz. national commie, regional commie and the local commie needless to mention the aura of think tanks. National commie thrives on NGOs, Universities, Intellectual institutions,media etc for their survival and growth but do not have any ground support in terms of cadres. Regional commie dwells on the vote banks of brain washed/ removed,left inclined public. This ritual is performed by the local commies at various demographies like trade unions when it comes to school drop outs or school/college politics in the case of students and employee unions for organised sector. The amount of leftism injected at these levels are more than enough to make him an addict with zero reception rate to logic and free thinking..
This Demonetisation hoopla may subside in next fifteen days or next six months, but the exposure of corrupt banks, bank officials and the black money hoarders will continue for years to come. Modi Sarkar has instructed all banks to submit 'suspicious transactions' information to the Income Tax department and keep camera footage of bank business from November 8 to December 30. There must be millions of suspicious transactions and hours of video footage information which will take years to digest and thousands of culprits will be exposed over several years.
In one speech with CVC and his dept. Modi told about a friend introducing him to a TTE in a 3 tier reserved compartment as he had no reservation and traveling to Delhi. Modi was talking about the honesty among corrupt also. The TTE allowed him to sit but did not give him reservation since he cannot take bribe from him as he was introduced by a known friend. See the rest of the video on youtube. Perhaps RG is talking about this incident of Modi's corruption that he is traveling in a reserved compartment with a general class ticket. LOL.
if pup poo is so confident of bringing an earthquake by his speech, he should go to Pakistan and speak there and finish Pakistan. Just Joking.
Communists are trying their best to remain relevant and are failing.They had their days and decades under the sun.They have wasted them in trying to look intelligent.WB and Tripura are two of our poorest states which were and are under Left rule.Remember Jyoti Basu not allowing unloading of super computer at Kolkata port? [All Left unions were opposed to any kind of computerisation in the eighties].
'The only balloon that burst seems to have burst a long time ago'..... That was a long shot. I don't know what to say.


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Old Point National Bank >> Our Services >> Wealth >> Resources >> Wealth Management Blog >> January 2023 Investment Commentary
Trust Reporter
Welcome to our 401(k) plan portal!
Retirement Solutions
Investment Commentary
Wealth Management Blog
January 2023 Market Commentary
Nowhere to hide
After two consecutive months of positive returns, markets reversed course in December to close out the year on a somber note. As detailed in the table below, 2022 was a terrible year across the board. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bested the other major U.S. equity indices and the bond market by delivering a negative 6.9% return.
While negative equity market annual returns are not unusual (they occur about once every four years on average), concurrent negative annual returns in the equity and bond markets are unusual. For historical reference, the Old Point Wealth Management team turned to NYU Stern School of Business professor, Aswath Damodaran, also known as the Dean of Valuation. Damodaran compiled and made publicly available via a website nearly one hundred years of annual investment returns on stocks, bonds, and real estate.Inflation data is also available to provide annual real returns.The information is fantastic and allows for historical perspectives.
Damodaran's data shows that since 1928 concurrent negative bond and equity returns happened just three times. 2022 marked the fourth time. It is also the first time on record when long-term bond returns and equity market returns declined 10% or more respectively. For investors with a mixed allocation of stocks and bonds, there was nowhere to hide in 2022.
Solid long-term results
Despite the off year, longer-term results continued to be solid for U.S equity indices with 10-year and 40-year annualized returns ranging from 9% to 14%. Looking at the data more closely, S&P 500 Index investors made money in nearly every rolling 10-year period since 1940 with just two exceptions: 2008 and 2009. Equity markets are proven to be incredibly resilient over the long run.
2022 was more than just an off year for bond investors. It was the worst calendar performance year on record, and it was the first time the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (the Agg) declined in consecutive years. The Agg's negative 13% performance shook long-term investors to their core, dragging the 10-year annualized return to 1.1% from 3.8% in 2020. Said another way, in just two years 10-year annualized returns dropped 71%! How much worse could it possibly get?
For equity and bond investors alike, 2022 was a humbling year.Even though the Agg delivered a negative return in 2021, the trailing three-year annualized return was close to 5%.Over the same three-year period, the S&P 500 Index generated a 16.5% annualized return.Investors grew accustomed to solid returns and market strategists offered little in the way of caution heading into 2022. Over the course of two weeks in December 2021, 45 strategists were polled by Reuters for their year-end forecast for the S&P 500 Index.The median forecast called for the index to finish 2022 at 4,910, a 7.5% gain from the time the poll was conducted.The index finished the year at 3,839, over 1,000 points below the median forecast!Market forecasting is a tricking endeavor.
Looking ahead, the outlook is wide-ranging.Narrowing the field to 23 strategists, the 2023 year-end forecast for the S&P 500 Index varies between 3,400 (an 11% decline) to 4,750 (a 24% gain) with a median target of 4,080 (a 7% gain).Investors appear less optimistic.The CBOE Put/ Call ratio, a closely watched indicator of market sentiment reached a multi-year high last month.A level above one is an indication that investors are pessimistic with traders purchasing more Put options (expecting the market to decline) than Call options (expecting the market to rise). The chart below confirms extreme pessimism.
A second gauge of market sentiment, the CNN Fear & Greed Index, reflects a similar level of pessimism.The Fear & Greed Index is a compilation of seven different indicators which measures some aspect of stock market behavior. The graphic below reflects the year-end mood of the market.
A third gauge of market sentiment, the Goldman Sachs Non-Profitable Technology Basket Index, indicates interest dissipated in some of the fastest revenue growth companies. The index was created to track the performance of non-profitable technology companies like Pinterest, Teladoc, Peloton, and Roku.As you can see from the chart below, the price of the index dropped 75% from the all-time high reached in February 2021. It now sits at pre-pandemic levels.
What would Warren do?
"Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well." -Warren Buffett
The three referenced market sentiment indicators suggest limited interest in stocks at year-end. However, market sentiment gauges have often been great contrarian indicators. When investors experience a material and sustained downturn in the market, confidence suffers. Investors have faced similar challenges in prior years. The S&P 500 experienced double-digit calendar year losses 10 times since 1937 including 2022.Even though caution was warranted following a difficult year, patience and confidence were rewarded. The average subsequent year return was 18%. While we will abstain from making any market predictions, we do acknowledge that many asset prices are more attractive now versus a year ago.Irrational investor exuberance has clearly subsided.
Also in line with pre-pandemic levels is the Price/Earnings (P/E) multiple of the S&P 500, which remains at 17. While painful in the short-term, the 12-month decline better aligns expectations with economic fundamentals. Using year-end prices and current analyst estimates, the S&P 500 Index is trading below its 25-year average P/E ratio.
Outlook for equities
We welcome the lower valuations but remain cautious.With the most highly anticipated recession on record looming, we are mindful of the implications of an economic contraction. Earnings per share growth of 7% to 10% in 2023, in the face of a recession, seems ambitious. We doubt the market fully accounted for a meaningful decline in earnings estimates in 2023. If we do experience a recession in 2023, corporate earnings will likely be lower than anticipated.We would expect asset prices to adjust accordingly in the short-term.
Don't fight the Fed
Turning our attention to the bond market, we do not anticipate a repeat of 2022 in 2023.The Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) raised the Federal Funds rate 7 times in 2022, taking the benchmark target rate range from 0.00%-0.25% to 4.25%-4.50%.Given the inverse relationship of rates and prices, the rapid move higher in rates crushed bond prices. The pace of the rate rising was unprecedented as it was driven by the Fed's pressing need to control inflation.The Fed's actions, arguably long overdue, have been effective. The Consumer Price Index peaked in June last year and declined every month since then.Inflation may have peaked, but we have little to gain by declaring the Fed victorious.We continue to believe the best course of action is to not fight the Fed.
That does not suggest we avoid purchasing bonds.The speedy rise in interest rates provided much improved income opportunities. At the end of 2022, yields on medium term investment grade rated bonds ranged from 4.0% to 5.5%.For investors seeking steady income with limited risk of principal returned at maturity, the market is decidedly more attractive than a year ago.
We enter 2023 as we enter every year, with an unwavering commitment to our investment process focused on helping make client goals a reality. Our investment philosophy is deeply rooted in a belief that the market is emotional in the short-term, but rational in the long-term.We resist crowd psychology, addressing fears while others panic, and we stay grounded when others are greedy. We understand that trying to keep pace with the market in all environments leads to poor investment decisions. As has been the case in prior years, we expect irrational investor behavior will create superb long-term investment opportunities in 2023.We appreciate your confidence and support and hope you will reach out to an Old Point team member with any questions.Here's to a happy and healthy New Year!
Old Point Wealth Management makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof, takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions which may be contained herein and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on this report or its contents. Old Point Wealth Management, its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors or employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell securities mentioned herein.
©2022 Old Point Financial Corporation
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We were yelling with joy, because Apple just added a full set of emojis for polygamists to the iPhone, and we. Can't. Even.
We are literally feeling all the feels. This is such a huge win for equality. This is what George Washington died for. This is what Abraham Lincoln attacked the South for. This is literally why Hitler committed suicide.
The new emoji set contains several different characters depicting men with up to twelve different women, beautifully displaying the love between a man and his many wives. And can we say, it's about time!
Because love is love, that's why. And if you don't like that, sorry! Bye Felicia!
Apple literally just slapped bigots in the face with their support of free love. Yes!
Love wins, bigots! Stuff that in your pipe and smoke it!


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My weekly opinions, observations and rants about some Canadian baseball stories (Please follow me on Twitter: @kevinglewsports):
 It's been a sad year for those of us who have fond memories of the 1981 Montreal Expos team that lost to the Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. Right-hander Charlie Lea became the third member of that club to die in 2011 when he passed away last Friday of a massive heart attack. Earlier this year, Woodie Fryman (February 4) and Dick Williams (July 7) also passed away.
 I know J.P. Arencibia hit .219 this season, but it's mind-boggling to me that the Jays catcher, who belted 23 homers and toiled for a full season at baseball's most demanding position, failed to muster a single vote in the American League Rookie of the Year voting.
 The Oakland A's are the Toronto Blue Jays most frequent trade partner. So if, in fact, left-handed starter Gio Gonzalez and closer Andrew Bailey are available, then I hope Alex Anthopoulos is speaking with A's GM Billy Beane right now.
 Vancouver, B.C. native, Dave McKay, who has been part of Tony La Russa's coaching staff for 25 years, told Joe Strauss of St. Louis Today that he doesn't plan to retire. But there's no word yet if McKay, who was the Cards' first base coach in 2011, will be retained by Mike Matheny the Cards' new skipper.
 Speaking of Matheny, the new St. Louis manager served as a back-up catcher with the Blue Jays in 1999. In 57 games, he hit .215 with three home runs.
 And getting back to La Russa, the newly retired, future Hall of Famer played 120 games for the Triple-A Vancouver Mounties in 1968. Tom Hawthorn wrote this piece about La Russa's tenure in Vancouver in late October: http://is.gd/HY94nY
 Eight players and two executives are part of the National Baseball Hall of Fame's Golden Era ballot. This special ballot was designed to offer previously overlooked candidates, whose greatest contributions came between 1947 and 1972, another chance at election. A 16-member committee consisting of Hall of Fame players, executives and media will vote on the candidates on December 5. One former player on the ballot is Ken Boyer. While in the St. Louis Cardinals system, Boyer suited up for 80 games with Hamilton (Class D Pony League) in 1950 and hit .342. He also pitched in 21 games. For a complete list of candidates, follow this link: http://is.gd/GILuar
 For those who think there's no longer an audience for Major League Baseball on regular cable, the epic Game 6 of the World Series attracted 21.1 million viewers for Fox. Those numbers rival the viewership for American Idol, the most watched show on U.S. TV.
1981, Alex Anthopoulos, American League Rookie of the Year, Andrew Bailey, Charlie Lea, Dave McKay, death, Dick Williams, dies, Gio Gonzalez, Golden Era ballot, Hamilton, J.P. Arencibia, Ken Boyer, Mike Matheny, Montreal Expos, retire, St. Louis Cardinals, Tony La Russa, Toronto Blue Jays, Woodie Fryman, World Series viewer number
But What Do I Know? … Greg Halman, Brett Lawrie, Brian Schneider
9 thoughts on "But What Do I Know? … Charlie Lea, J.P. Arencibia, Dave McKay"
Skoop17 says:
Nothing against those being considered, nor those who are voting but why is Marvin Miller's name not being considered?
Marvin Miller has been considered on a different HOF ballot that examines overlooked players, umpires and executives from 1972 to present. I believe he was one vote short of getting in last time.
Hitting Drills says:
Marvin Miller's was overlooked for the same reason the Kardashians are on t.v.
Sometime our values or in the wrong place……
Scott C says:
Wow, 21.1M viewers. That's great. Baseball is awesome. If Dave does leave the Cards there should be 29 other teams calling him and Baseball Canada!
Heard today that McKay won't be back at 1B with the Cards in 2012 but is being reassigned within the organization. I'm not sure what that means. I know that McKay used to run spring training for La Russa and that's a huge job.
bronxboy55 says:
And game 6 would have had even more viewers if people had known what kind of game it would turn out to be.
Great work as always, Kevin!
Very true. Thanks for the comment.
From Devon Teeple:
The reason I think j.p. Received no votes is because he was so sporadic.
I have to check the rankings but can't say I'm surprised.
And the jays would have to give up too much talent for gio and Bailey. I can't see that happening.
Just my two cents.
Thanks for another very interesting edition.
The Jays would have to give up a lot for Gonzalez and Bailey, but Anthopoulos seems to find a way of pulling these types of deals off. But it's definitely a long shot.