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Walter Scott, Jr.
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Dr. Christopher William O'Dell
Go To: Refereed Journal Articles
Refereed Journal Articles Top
31 C.W. O'Dell, B. Connor, H. Bösch, D. O'Brien, C. Frankenberg, R. Castano, M. Christi, D. Crisp, A. Eldering, B. Fisher, M. Gunson, J. McDuffie, C. E. Miller, V. Natraj, F. Oyafuso, I. Polonsky, M. Smyth, T. Taylor, G. C. Toon, P. O. Wennberg, and D. Wunch, 2011: The ACOS CO2 retrieval algorithm, Part 1: Description and validation against synthetic observations. Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., 4, 6097-6158. 2012
30 D. Crisp, B. M. Fisher, C.W. O'Dell, C. Frankenberg, R. Basilio, H. Bösch, L. R. Brown, R. Castano, B. Connor, N. M. Deutscher, A. Eldering, D. Griffith, M. Gunson, A. Kuze, L. Mandrake, J. McDuffie, J. Messerschmidt, C. E. Miller, I. Morino, V. Natraj, J. Notholt, D. O'Brien, F. Oyafuso, I. Polonsky, J. Robinson, R. Salawitch, V. Sherlock, M. Smyth, H. Suto, T. Taylor, P. O. Wennberg, D. Wunch, and Y. L. Yung, 2012: The ACOS XCO2 retrieval algorithm, Part 2: Global XCO2 data characterization. Atmos Meas. Tech., 5, 687-707. 2012
29 S. Oshchepkov, A. Bril, T. Yokota, I. Morino, Y. Yoshida, T. Matsunaga, D. Belikov, D. Wunch, P. O. Wennberg, G. Toon, C. W. O'Dell, A. Butz, S. Guerlet, A. Cogan, H. Boesch, N. Eguchi, D. Griffith, R. Macatangay, J. Notholt, N. Deutscher, R. Sussmann, M. Rettinger, V. Sherlock, J. Robinson, E. Kyrö, P. Heikkinen, D. G. Feist, T. Nagahama, N. Kadygrov, S. Maksyutov, O. Uchino, H. Watanabe, 2012: Effects of atmospheric light scattering in validation of spectroscopic space-based observations of carbon dioxide by ground-based FTS measurements, Part 1. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D12, doi:10.1029/2012JD017505. 2012
28 C. Frankenberg, O. Hasekamp, C.W. O'Dell, S. Sanghavi, A. Butz, and J. Worden, 2012:Aerosol information content analysis of multi-angle high spectral resolution measurements and its benefit for high accuracy greenhouse gas retrievals. Atmos. Meas. Tech., 5, 1809-1821. 2012
27 C. Frankenberg, C.W. O'Dell, L. Guanter, and J. McDuffie, 2012: Remote sensing of near-infrared chlorophyll fluorescence from space in scattering atmospheres: implications for its retrieval and interferences with atmospheric CO2 retrievals. Atmos Meas. Tech., 5, 2081-2094. 2012
26 D. Hammerling, A. Michalak, C.W. O'Dell, and S.R. Kawa, 2012: Global CO2 distributions over land from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT). Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L08804, doi:10.1029/2012GL051203. 2012
25 D. O'Brien, I. Polonsky, C.W. O'Dell, A. Kuze, N. Kikuchi, and V. Natraj, 2011: Testing the polarization model for TANSO-FTS on GOSAT against clear-sky observations of sun-glint over the ocean. In prep, to be submitted to IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens. 2011
24 D. Wunch, P. O. Wennberg, G. C. Toon, B. J. Connor, B. Fisher, G. B. Osterman, C. Frankenberg, L. Mandrake, C.W. O'Dell, P. Ahonen, S. C. Biraud, R. Castano, N. Cressie, D. Crisp, N. M. Deutscher, A. Eldering, M. L. Fisher, D. W. T. Griffith, M. Gunson, P. Heikkinen, G. Keppel-Aleks, E. Kyrö, R. Lindenmaier, R. Macatangay, J. Mendonca, J. Messerschmidt, C. E. Miller, I. Morino, J. Notholt, F. A. Oyafuso, M. Rettinger, J. Robinson, C. M. Roehl, R. J. Salawitch, V. Sherlock, K. Strong, R. Sussmann, T. Tanaka, D. R. Thompson, O. Uchino, T. Warneke, and S. C. Wofsy, 2011: A method for evaluating bias in global measurements of CO2 total columns from space. Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 11, 20899-20946. 2011
23 Taylor, T.E., C.W. O'Dell, D. M. O'Brien, N. Kikuchi, T. Yakota, T. Y. Nakajima, H. Ishida, D. Crisp, and T. Nakajima, 2011: Comparison of cloud screening methods applied to GOSAT near-infrared spectra. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens, in press. 2011
22 C.W. O'Dell, J.O. Day, H. Pollock, C. Bruegge, D.M. O'Brien, R. Castano, I. Tkatcheva, C.E. Miller, and D. Crisp, 2011: Preflight Radiometric Calibration of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens., 49 (6), 2438-2447. 2011
21 Day, J.O., C.W. O'Dell, H. Pollock, C. Bruegge, D. Rider, D. Crisp, and C.E. Miller, 2011: Preflight Spectral Calibration of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens., 49 (7), 2793-2801. 2011
20 Kuze, A., D.M. O'Brien, T.E. Taylor, J.O. Day, C.W. O'Dell, F. Kataoka, M. Yoshida, Y. Mitomi, C. Bruegge, H. Pollock, R. Basilio, M. Helmlinger, T. Matsunaga, S. Kawakami, K. Shiomi, T. Urabe and H. Suto, 2010: Vicarious calibration of the GOSAT sensors using the Railroad Valley Desert Playa. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens., 49 (5), 1781-1975. 2010
19 C.W. O'Dell, 2010: Acceleration of multiple-scattering, hyperspectral radiative transfer calculations via low-streams interpolation. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D10206, doi:10.1029/2009JD012803. 2010
18 Trenberth, K. E., J. T. Fasullo, C.W. O'Dell, and T. Wong, 2010: Relationships between tropical sea surface temperature and top-of-atmosphere radiation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L03702, doi:10.1029/2009GL042314. 2010
17 Geer, A., P. Bauer, and C.W. O'Dell, 2009: A revised cloud overlap scheme for fast microwave radiative transfer in rain and cloud. J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 48 (11), 2257-2270. 2009
16 Vidot, J., R. Bennartz, C.W. O'Dell, R. Preusker, R. Lindstrot, and A.K. Heidinger, 2009: CO2 Retrieval over Clouds from the OCO Mission: Model Simulations and Error Analysis. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 26 (6), 1090-1104. 2009
15 Wood, R., M. Kohler, R. Bennartz, and C.W. O'Dell, 2009: The diurnal cycle of surface divergence over the global oceans. Q. J. R. Meteorolog. Soc., 135 (643), 1484-1493. 2009
14 Kay, J. E., L'Ecuyer, T., Gettleman, A., Stephens, G., and C.W. O'Dell, 2008: The contribution of cloud and radiation anomalies to the 2007 Arctic sea ice extent minimum. Geophys. Res. Lett, 35 (8), L08503. 2008
13 C.W. O'Dell, F.J. Wentz, and R. Bennartz, 2008: Cloud liquid water path from satellite-based passive microwave observations: a new climatology over the global oceans. J. Climate, 21, 1721-1739. 2008
12 C. O'Dell, P. Bauer, and R. Bennartz, 2007: A fast cloud overlap parameterization for microwave radiance assimilation. J. Atmos. Sci., 64 (11), 3896-3909. 2007
11 M.J. Kim, M. Kulie, C.W. O'Dell, and R. Bennartz, 2007: Scattering of ice particles at microwave frequencies: A physically based parameterization. J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 46 (5), 615-633. 2007
10 A.K. Heidinger, C.W. O'Dell, T. Greenwald, & R. Bennartz, 2006: The Successive Order of Interaction Radiative Transfer Model, Part I: Model Development. J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 45 (10), pp. 1388-1402. 2006
9 C.W. O'Dell, A.K. Heidinger, T. Greenwald, & R. Bennartz, 2006: The Successive Order of Interaction Radiative Transfer Model, Part II: Model Performance and Applications. J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 45 (10), pp. 1403-1413. 2006
8 T. Greenwald, R. Bennartz, C.W. O'Dell, & A. Heidinger, 2005: Fast computation of microwave radiances for data assimilation using the "successive order of scattering" method. J. Appl. Meteorol., 44(6), pp. 960-966. 2005
7 P.C. Farese, G. Dall'Oglio, J.O. Gundersen, B.G. Keating, S. Klawikowski, L. Knox, A. Levy, P.M. Lubin, C.W. O'Dell, A. Peel, L. Piccirillo, J. Ruhl, and P.T. Timbie, 2004: COMPASS: An Upper Limit on Cosmic Microwave Background Polarization at an Angular Scale of 20'. Astrophysical Journal, 610(2), pp. 625- 634. 2004
6 P.C. Farese, G. Dall'Oglio, J.O. Gundersen, B.G. Keating, S. Klawikowski, L. Knox, A. Levy, C.W. O'Dell, A. Peel, L. Piccirillo, J. Ruhl, and P.T. Timbie, 2003: COMPASS: COMPASS: an instrument for measuring the polarization of the CMB on intermediate angular scales. New Astron. Rev., 47 (11-12), pp. 1033- 1046. 2003
5 C.W. O'Dell, B.G. Keating, A. de Oliveira-Costa, M. Tegmark, and P.T. Timbie, 2003: CMB polarization at large angular scales: Data analysis of the POLAR experiment. Physical Review D., 68(4), 042002. 2003
4 A. de Oliveira-Costa, M. Tegmark, C.W. O'Dell, B.G. Keating, P.T. Timbie, G. Efstathiou, and G. Smoot, 2003: Large-scale polarization of the microwave background and foreground. Physical Review D., 68(8), 083003. 2003
3 B.G. Keating, C.W. O'Dell, J.O. Gundersen, N. Stebor, L. Piccirillo, and P.T. Timbie, 2003: An Instrument for Investigating the Large Angular Scale Polarization of the Cosmic Microwave Background. Astrophys. J. Suppl., 144(1), pp. 1-20. 2003
2 C.W. O'Dell, D. Swetz, and P.T. Timbie, 2002: Calibration of Millimeter-Wave Polarimeters Using a Thin Dielectric Sheet. IEEE Trans. Micr. Theory and Tech., 50(9), pp. 2135-2141. 2002
1 B.G. Keating, C.W. O'Dell, A. de Oliveira-Costa, S. Klawikowski, N. Stebor, L. Piccirillo, M. Tegmark, and P.T. Timbie, 2001: A Limit on the Large Angular Scale Polarization of the Cosmic Microwave Background. Astrophys. J., 560(1), pp. L1-L4. 2001
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The Exercise Habit
Written by Ilene Raymond Rush
Twice a week, I drag myself to a class called Body Toning, in part because I enjoy it, and in part because I know it's good for me. The "I know it's good for me" portion of that sentence outweighs the first by country miles.
There are mornings when I feel that I am literally dragging my body, joint by joint, knee by elbow, to the class. Afterwards, I join the rest of the over 50's to bitch about how we need to stop the madness.
But for some reason, next session there I am, up front behind our insanely fit instructor, struggling through 15 sets of burpees or whatever new torture she has devised.
It wasn't always this way. As a teenager, I was hardly the athletic type. I did the obligatory gym class and played a 13-minute season on the girls' junior high basketball team (they were desperate for tall girls and I had a growth spurt that year).
It didn't occur to me until I was diagnosed with the equivalent of 'prediabetes' in my senior year of college—although no one called it that then—that maybe movement would help keep my budding condition at bay.
So exercise became part of my life. First as a runner, eeking out longer and longer paths on a run in Alexandria, Virginia; then as a weight lifter, hoisting at Nautilus machines in Iowa, where I was in graduate school. I never achieved the vaunted "runner's high," but I did find that I had more energy. And yes, it did regulate my sugars.
Pregnant, I upped the ante and pumped out hours on an exercise bike and endless laps in a swimming pool so I wouldn't have to take insulin. It wasn't easy, but once again, it was necessary.
How to Make Exercise a Habit
How does a habit become a habit? Apparently, it has to work into a groove in your brain. People say it's about willpower, but for me, doing it over and over again has worn that groove, and now, it's almost as though I don't have a choice. I mean I do, but something in my brain won't let me turn back over and go to sleep.
How do you get into the groove? For some people it involves rewards. One study from a University of Pennsylvania researcher showed that people who only read romance novels or watched a favorite television show while they ran on a running machine (they weren't allowed to take their books or shows home) came back to the machine more frequently than those who had no such rewards.
I find tricks help as well—I always set out my exercise outfit the night before on the floor so I basically trip over it when I awake. Like a rude reminder that I need to get ready to do those damned burpees once again.
People tell me that they admire my stick-to-itiveness when it comes to exercise. But it's really nothing but a habit, one that took 30 years to develop. Even now, as I don my exercise tights, I think, "I don't have to do this. I could stay home." But then my brain kicks into that groove and there I am, counting out jumping jacks, cursing my instructor, and lowering my sugars. And occasionally, very occasionally thinking, "This is kind of fun."

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


A manifesto for holistic working.
Use your head to make good judgments.
Use your heart to lead with passion.
Use your hands to stay practical.
297 x 420mm poster. Hand finished with a red embroidery stitch by Sarah Corbett, founder of the Craftivist Collective.


Louis Vuitton has become the latest luxury brand to embrace the chatbot trend, launching the LV Virtual Advisor chatbot on Facebook Messenger, using artificial intelligence-based chatbot technology from mode.ai, according to a Louis Vuitton press release.
The press release further stated that the chatbot could, "suggest an ideal item or help with logistical concerns. Meanwhile, customers will sense a personalized, one-to-one touch as they engage in the discussions."
For now, Virtual Advisor is available only to U.S. customers, but eventually may be available in Europe and Japan, and on messaging platforms other than Facebook Messenger, according to a Forbes report.
The mass-market potential of retail chatbots remains unclear, as recent research has shown that some marketers don't consider them a priority and some shoppers are still hesitant to use them.
Yet overall chatbot adoption seems to be gradually increasing. In particular segments of retail, brands are readily embracing it. Beauty, where Sephora has led the way, is one such segment, and luxury, where brands like Burberry were early to embrace chatbots, is another.
For the luxury segment, chatbots may fit in well with the notion that customers are willing to pay more not only for a superior brand, but also for superior service. Chatbots, especially those enhanced with artificial intelligence, can also provide another layer of support to the brand's customer service strategy, making customers feel like they are receiving personalized service, available to them on a 24/7 basis.
Louis Vuitton's technology partner, mode.ai, has a history of infusing retail chatbots with richer capabilities, and has partnered with Levi Strauss and Rue21 in the past for virtual styling chatbots. The company is also helping LV's Virtual Advisor do more than just communicate at any hour. The chatbot also allows users to share products with friends in Facebook Messenger, and allows Facebook friends to vote on a user's purchase choice. The chatbot can search the brand's full online product catalog, provide users with more information about the brand itself and suggest product care instructions and store locations.
This chatbot could become more of a force for Louis Vuitton as the company expands it to international regions and platforms, but for now, the company's 20 million Facebook followers is a good starting point.
Louis Vuitton Louis Vuitton introduces its own chatbot, a virtual advisor that extends the luxury experience through Facebook instant messaging.


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Ronald Reagan Centennial, Feb 10-11, 2011, Washington DC (Photo by The Miller Center).
U.S. hegemony
Robert Kagan's Selective Memory
Andrew Bacevich
In the pages of Foreign Affairs, the indefatigable Robert Kagan recently weighed in with yet another fervent appeal on behalf of empire. Ever the true-blue American, Kagan avoids using the offensive E-word, of course. He favors the term hegemony, which, he explains, is benign, involving neither domination nor exploitation but willing submission—"more a condition than a purpose." Scratch the surface, however, and "The Price of Hegemony" offers a variation on Kagan's standard theme: the imperative of militarized U.S. global primacy, whatever the price and with little regard for who pays.
Few would charge Kagan with being a deep or original thinker. As a writer, he is less philosophe than pamphleteer, albeit one possessing a genuine gift for packaging. Recall, for example, his famous assertion that "Americans are from Mars and Europeans are from Venus." Once deemed to express a truth of Lippmannesque profundity, this warriors vs. wimps formulation has since lost much of its persuasive appeal, not least because the warriors, a.k.a. "the troops," have not fared especially well when dispatched to liberate, pacify, or depose.
So rather than being enshrined alongside Walter Lippmann, Kagan will likely share the fate of Scotty Reston or Joe Alsop, once prominent Washington-based columnists who are now totally forgotten. Of course, much the same fate awaits the entire gaggle of commentators (this writer included) who pontificate on America's role in the world under the mistaken impression that senior officials in the White House, Foggy Bottom, or the Pentagon seek their counsel. Rarely do they do so.
That said, Kagan stands out from the rest of the pack in one respect: His knack for combining consistency with flexibility is matchless. He is nothing if not nimble. Whatever may occur in the real world, he is ready with an explanation for how events affirm the indispensability of assertive American leadership. In Washington (and in the pages of Foreign Affairs), this is always a welcome conclusion.
Read the full article in The American Conservative.
Left Internationalism in the Heart of Empire May 23, 2022
The Ukraine War Doesn't Change Everything April 13, 2022
U.S. Can't Absolve Itself of Responsibility for Putin's Ukraine Invasion February 25, 2022
Andrew J. Bacevich is the Chairman of the Board of the Quincy Institute. He graduated from West Point and Princeton, served in the army, became an academic, and is now a writer. He is the author, co-author, or editor of more than a dozen books.
More from Andrew Bacevich
Andrew Bacevich on America's "Very Long War"
In Search of Monsters — A Just War
The Neocons Are Losing. Why Aren't We Happy?


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Visibility Down to the Item
I recently had the pleasure of interviewing David Brock for an "Out in Front" story. Brock is the mad scientist who, back in 1996, came up with the ridiculously implausible idea of embedding a radio frequency identification tag in every item manufactured on Earth. A decade later, Brock's idea not only doesn't seem so farfetched, it's actually starting to happen.
By Mark Roberti
Apr 01, 2006—Companies are moving toward item-level tagging far more quickly than most industry experts ever expected. It was assumed that tagging items would be too expensive for years to come. In some cases, that's still true. But numerous studies and some early pilots have shown that the benefits of tagging at the item level are significant, and the business case is compelling today for some products, such as DVDs, high-end apparel and prescription drugs.
Our cover story, RFID Gets Item-ized, describes some of the many item-level projects currently under way and explains why there has been a sudden increase in interest in item-level tagging. And for companies wondering if they can tag items profitably today, it also provides insights into where and when it makes sense to tag at the item level.
Two companies that think item-level tagging makes sense right now are drug manufacturer Purdue Pharma and wholesaler H.D. Smith. They ran a groundbreaking pilot that showed RFID could be used to track the chain of custody and authenticate drugs (see "E-Pedigree Pioneers").
Item-level tagging will provide ultimate visibility into your inventory. Even if you don't plan on tagging unique items for several years, it's time to start thinking about upgrading your warehouse management system to handle RFID data. When is the right time to upgrade? What upgrade options are available? And what are the challenges that have to be overcome? Warehouse Management Systems That Handle RFID Data provides the answers.
Of course, RFID can be used to track individual people, as well as individual items. Mining the Benefits of RFID looks at how companies in the often-dangerous mining and energy sectors are using RFID to locate employees to ensure their safety. These two industries are also using RFID to track assets and products in transit.
Before item-level tagging takes off, RFID systems and the related infrastructure need to mature. The network infrastructure has to be secure to prevent counterfeiting (see Winning the Toughest Battle), privacy and security issues must be addressed by a Generation 3 protocol (see The History of EPC's Future) and data-sharing standards must be developed to deal with what happens to tagged parts after they are put into cars, airplanes and other products (see The 95 Percent Solution).
These are pretty significant obstacles-as significant as driving the price of tags to a level where they can be put on everything. But people no longer think Brock's vision of a world in which all items have RFID tags linked to the Internet is crazy. Many are working hard to make it a reality.


The past nine years have been extraordinary for the stock market. From March 2009 to the end of 2017, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, a benchmark of market performance, rose close to 300 percent. In 2017 alone, the index gained more than 21 percent.
If you are an investor who has benefited from the extended bull market in stocks, you might think there's no reason to rebalance your portfolio. However, certain investments or sectors you own may have prospered in recent years, possibly affecting the level of risk you have in the market. With market performance where it is, it may make sense to review your portfolio and determine if changes are appropriate.
Rebalancing is a process of shifting assets in your portfolio back to your original allocation to more suitably reflect your investment objectives and risk profile. Because the markets move in unpredictable cycles, it's important to remember that the types of returns many investors saw in 2017 won't necessarily be repeated in the next few years. While stocks have historically moved higher over time, there are periods when they either perform below average or give back some of the gains they previously achieved. These market swings mean an investor may have to make adjustments to their portfolio mix over time. Keep in mind that rebalancing does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
As a simplified hypothetical example, assume an investor's portfolio was established with a mix of 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds. This mix would be determined based on the investor's risk tolerance and goals. After the market's recent winning streak, stocks may now represent 70 percent of the portfolio. This could be considered an "overweight" position compared to the investor's designated allocation. If stocks experience a correction, the "overweight" position in equities could work against the investor. It may make sense to reduce the stock position back to its original allocation of 60 percent, and move 10 percent of the portfolio back into bonds. In this way, the portfolio would more accurately represents the investor's risk profile.
When one asset class is a certain percentage higher or lower than its original representation in your portfolio. Your investments will swing up and down day to day and week to week, so work with your financial advisor to establish a benchmark for when volatility may trigger a change in your investment makeup.
At a set time frame, such as quarterly, biannually or annually. Reviewing on a regular schedule may help you avoid making an emotional decision during times of market volatility.
When you recognize a broad, persistent trend in the markets. For example, upward trends in emerging markets' performance or rising interest rates in the United States could affect your portfolio or present an investing opportunity based on your goals.
Because of changes in your own life. Major life events, such as marriage, divorce, the birth of a child or grandchild, or deciding on a retirement date, may require you to adjust your investments so they align with your new priorities. For example, if you decided to retire early you may want to reduce your exposure to risk in case the markets dip before your retirement date. This could mean shifting a portion of your portfolio into more conservative investments.
Even if you hold investments in a variety of accounts, consider assessing all of your holdings as one portfolio to determine if you need to rebalance your assets. Be aware that if you sell positions in taxable accounts, you may incur taxable gains. If you make changes within a tax-advantaged account (such as IRAs or a workplace retirement plan), you may be able to avoid any current tax implications from the rebalancing process.
Even if your portfolio is making progress toward your goals, it's important not to keep your investments on autopilot. Your asset allocation can have a major impact on your ability to reach your future goals, so it's worth ensuring your mix remains on track. Consult with your financial adviser and tax advisor before you make any decisions about your investment strategy.
All intelligent investors know that it's your asset allocation that determines your returns over the long run. This holds true for small and large investors like pensions.
Today's topic is all about rebalancing. The idea came to me this weekend as one of my astute blog readers, Drew Wells, called me to discuss the optimal rebalancing strategy for individuals and institutions. I thank him for inspiring me to write this comment.
Just as there is no universally optimal asset allocation, there is no universally optimal rebalancing strategy. The only clear advantage as far as maintaining a portfolio's risk-and-return characteristics is that a rebalanced portfolio more closely aligns with the characteristics of the target asset allocation than with a never-rebalanced portfolio. As our analysis shows, the risk-adjusted returns are not meaningfully different whether a portfolio is rebalanced monthly, quarterly, or annually; however, the number of rebalancing events and resulting costs increase significantly. As a result, we conclude that a rebalancing strategy based on reasonable monitoring frequencies (such as annual or semiannual) and reasonable allocation thresholds (variations of 5% or so) is likely to provide sufficient risk control relative to the target asset allocation for most portfolios with broadly diversified stock and bond holdings.
depends on a number of factors such as the market environment and asset-class characteristics. Rebalancing achieves the goal of risk control relative to the target asset allocation in all market environments. Although market return patterns may create opportunities for tactical rebalancing, this active strategy is challenging.
Based on reasonable expectations about return patterns, average returns, risk, and correlations, we conclude that for most broadly diversified stock and bond fund portfolios, annual or semiannual monitoring, with rebalancing at 5% thresholds, produces an acceptable balance between risk control and cost minimization. To the extent possible, this rebalancing strategy should be carried out by appropriately redirecting interest income, dividends, new contributions, and withdrawals.
So the topic of this post, is what exactly is the "optimal rebalancing strategy" for pensions and for individuals?
With reference to our conversation earlier today, Michael Edesess argues in is book that there is no theoretical or mathematical justification for rebalancing. But that's not the argument that most interests me. Rather, his argument that automatically rebalancing is sensible for all investors has no basis in fact is what really interests me.
He provides an example. As you know, most allocate between safe and risky assets. Often one purpose of safe assets is to ensure a steady income – they are called "fixed" income for a reason – and a sum of money at maturity. So, for instance, if the right allocation at portfolio inception is 50/50 and risky asset piece subsequently drops in value, conventional wisdom would have the investor re-balance by selling bonds and buying stocks. In doing so, Michael points out, that investor will have taken on more risk than he or she was prepared to take at the outset. All else being equal, that makes no sense.
Conversely, if stocks climbed from inception of the allocation and bonds did not, stocks would be sold to rebalance and bonds purchased. Again, that makes no sense if the bonds are serving the purpose mentioned above.
In thinking about this it seems to me that the argument for rebalancing is based solely or mostly on volatility management. By keeping the relative risks of bonds and stocks on target, the targeted volatility is achieved. Financial experts, however, argue that volatility is not true risk. Real risk is just the risk of a permanent loss of capital. If so, then I'm inclined to think that Michael is right: you should never reduce your safe holdings as part of rebalancing, as that just increases your exposure to the risk of a permanent loss of capital. Conversely, there should never be any reason to reduce equity holdings after they have appreciated: that appreciation creates no greater risk of permanent loss of capital based on the initial starting point.
As to Michael's point that there is no theoretical or mathematical justification for rebalancing, this too makes intuitive sense to me. Rebalancing just amounts to buying low and selling high. As such, it seems to me that it is essentially a value strategy, or an anti-momentum strategy. Over very long periods we know that the value and momentum factors have outperformed beta, but they tend to zig and zag with the one offsetting the other at any given time. By effectively going long one (value) and short the other (momentum), it seems right that they should cancel each other out.
I don't have any strong views on any of this. But I find Michael's points to be interesting. They are especially interesting to me in light of the new asset allocation ETFs which effectively rebalance daily, a sort of rebalancing on steroids. If Michael's point is, say, applicable to my situation, then the Vanguard 40/60 allocation ETF is not appropriate, even though it is a conservative allocation. It is not as conservative of a fixed un-rebalanced 40/60 allocation. I've seen no articles on this topic, which suggests Michael is wrong, the effect is so small as to be not worth writing about, or his point has not been considered by the financial advisor community. I'd love to know which it is.
Interesting stuff and I think Michael Edesess is right, for someone relying on a fixed income to live out the rest of their life, automatic rebalancing may not be justified and it could increase their risk profile and lead to permanent loss of capital which defeats the original purpose of a very conservative asset allocation.
What Drew was asking me in particular, is a theoretical question. Is it better to for a Canadian retail investor to invest in the Vanguard Balanced ETF Portfolio (VBAL.TO) or the Vanguard Growth ETF Portfolio (VGRO.TO) if you want more equity risk and allow these ETFs to automatically rebalance every day or to invest in a 60/40 50/50 80/20 portfolio using ETFs and rebalance on your own every quarter, six months or year?
[Note: In the US, similar ETFs are the iShares Core Moderate Allocation ETF (AOM) or the iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF (AOR)].
This too is an interesting comment because it seems to suggest what I remember, there are very big benefits to rebalancing, namely, there are very real advantages for institutions with a long investment horizon to rebalance every quarter because just by rebalancing, they will increase returns and lower their portfolio's volatility (ie. increase risk-adjusted returns).
There is a caveat to all these quant studies, however, and let me explain. They were all done during periods when stocks rose (ie. long bull markets) and I'd be curious to see if the same holds true during a long bear market where stocks keep declining (so rebalancing lowers risk-adjusted returns) or even during periods when stocks go parabolic like 1999-2000 where momentum strategies dominate and stocks keep melting up.
Now, unlike an individual relying on a fixed income trying to live out the rest of their life which could be 10, 20 or 30 years, pensions have a much longer horizon so in theory, they definitely should be rebalancing every quarter.
I know all this which is why in my last comment of 2018, Making Stocks Great Again, I knew there were major hedge fund and mutual fund redemptions going on late last year which led to heavy selling in December and the Mnuchin Massacre didn't help, but once the world's most influential allocators were done rebalancing, stocks would come back strong.
But I also made an implicit assumption, namely, that rebalancing alone will suffice to lead to higher stock prices in Q1 2019. What if I was wrong? What if stocks kept melting down like in 2008? Then, not only should you be wary of the buyback bull but you should be wary of the rebalancing bull too!
I mention this because I remember a phone conversation with Bob Bertram, OTPP's former CIO, back in 2008 when he told me: "We kept buying the dips and the market kept going lower and lower."
In my arguments, I'm implicitly assuming mean reversion and that when global big institutions rebalance, it swamps everything else including buybacks and necessarily leads to higher stock prices going forward. As Bob Bertram reminds us, that's not always necessarily the case!!
Short answer: my experience is that some variation of rebalancing works best for a pension plan. You can argue whether it is the best strategy for an individual.
The reason rebalancing works is in part that markets collectively exhibits short-term bipolar behaviour: overreaction to good and bad 'news'.
Markets tend towards efficiency in the long run, but print a daily price that in my mind is not efficient in an economic sense.
Some studies show that too frequent rebalancing hurts.
The bigger issue is being late.
Individuals tend to be late.
There are a few rebalancing strategies such as calendar based and range based. I am pretty sure that over medium and long term horizons that asset classes mean revert. Assuming that is the case then rebalancing makes sense. Further, assuming that a fund has positive cash flows the rebalancing can be done by deploying new cash into the underweight asset classes so it doesn't necessarily have to incur transaction costs. Even absent incoming cash you can deploy cashflow from coupons and dividends into the underweight asset classes. Or you can bite the bullet and incur T-costs to get back to targets.
I would also note that the typical 60-40 portfolio also almost all of its risk in stocks, as Bridgewater shows in their background work on risk parity strategies. Risk parity has not done so well recently but I think it still makes sense assuming that assets are at equilibrium pricing, which is a huge assumption. I know that you're is still a bond bull, but I would not be a buyer of bonds at current yield levels as yield curves are extremely flat and I don't see the point in taking duration risk unless you think that bond yields are going way lower. And bonds are currently a lower yielding asset than stocks in pretty much every country outside the US. So cash looks pretty good to me in the current environment. And equities in many markets are now cheap on an absolute basis which has been a rarity in our careers.
In taxable portfolios things can be different as rebalancing can have a more tangible cost in the short term as realizing capital gains will cause you to have to pay taxes to the government.
By the way there are some Horizons ETFs that are very useful for taxable investors. ETFs such as HXS, HXT, HXX and HBB are structured via total return swaps and they don't pay distributions at all, instead the ETF's NAV grows with the total return of the underlying index. This converts bond coupons or non-Canadian dividends from regular income (taxed at 53.53% here in Ontario) to capital gains taxed at half that rate. And that tax burden is deferred until you sell your units. Even if you need regular income you can sell a few percent per year and still be ahead of the game.
I thank Leo de Bever and Wayne Kozun for their insightful comments, they're extremely bright investment professionals.
By the way, Wayne is now the CIO at Forthlane Partners, a multi-family office based in Toronto. I have a lot of respect for both these individuals but respectfully disagree with them on bonds.
I remain more bullish than ever and as I watch underfunded US pensions selling their bonds to reach for yield in stocks, corporate bonds, private equity, real estate and hedge funds, I can't help but cringe knowing we have yet to see the secular lows on US long bond yields. That's why I'm convinced US public pensions are cooked when the next recession/ crisis hits (they're all implicitly short vol and throwing their bonds out with the bathwater!).
Anyway, that's a topic for another day, I hope you all enjoyed this topic on the optimal rebalancing strategy.
"You have to guess the upcoming changes, try to rebalance during the roll and then tweak your position after the roll is done. Tracking error? Of course. Tough to execute if you are the sole trader of an index, since you have to do all the trading close to the close and several commos close at the same time."
One last little tidbit, a parting shot at robo advisors. In Canada, we were subjected to very lame and depressing commercials for Canadian robo advisors during Sunday's Super Bowl which admittedly was even more lame and depressing.
I was chatting to a quant friend of mine about rebalancing and he told me he's invested in VBAL and doesn't understand what all the fuss is with robo advisors who claim to be more effective rebalancing to justify their higher fees."What's their track record relative to VBAL? In fact, every other investment firm charging fees for taking asset allocation decisions should demonstrate alpha over VBAL or a similar US ETF over a long period."
He's absolutely right, a lot of smoke & mirrors out there, fancy marketing packages that sound very sophisticated but net of fees, most of these investment managers are underperfoming big time!!
Below, as the US and China race for artificial intelligence leadership, Kai-Fu Lee, chairman and CEO of SInnovation Ventures, joins "Squawk Box" to discuss the future of artificial intelligence and where the sector is currently thriving.
Second, CNBC's "Closing Bell" discusses the markets ahead of more earnings reports with Jeffrey Kleintop from Charles Schwab and Rick Santelli at the CME in Chicago. Click here if it doesn;t load below.
Lastly, CNBC's "Closing Bell" team breaks down how millennials are investing with JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. Pot stocks and Tesla? Geez!!
Just read your piece and having spent the last 18 years trying to convince folks of the silliness of traditional rebalancing (with pretty good results with my clients, including adding value in 2008 and 2018 and even 2017), I take the liberty to enclose a paper I wrote that debunks all the myths around rebalancing. In short, rebalancing affects 100% of a fund's returns and most naïve rebalancing policies worsen drawdowns and are purely arbitrary. Add to that, we have no ability to forecast long term returns, so to go back to an SAA that is based on questionable forecasts is a problem (I made this mistake for a $10bn fund in the late 1990s).
All it takes is a little bit of work/intelligence to position the portfolio intelligently relative to the SAA and you can add value and lower risk (Yes – you can get paid to manage risk!).
You can read Arun's paper here. I thank him for his very wise insights.


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Q: What is it about kdb/q that makes the grammar not suitable for ANTLR style parser generators? I want to build a code analysis tool for personal use when programming in kdb/q.
In order to do this, I need to be able to parse q code into an AST. I have never written a parser before. ANTLR4 seems to be a very mature, well documented tool so I thought it would be a good choice.
I found this grammar for a language which is similar to q, targeting a parser generator which is similar to ANTLR. However, I asked the author if this would be a good starting point to build an ANTLR4 grammar for q, and he said q grammar is not compatible with ANTLR style parser generators.
I would like some elaboration on this. If you (a potential responder to this question) are not familiar with q, then feel free to answer the more general question: what kinds of grammars are not suitable for ANTLR style parsers?

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