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The U.S. Economy Is Now in Uncharted Waters
Just how bad COVID-19 will ultimately be for the US and global economy is difficult to say, with no real frames of reference as precedent – the author discusses two extreme scenarios as a framework for what may be.
How bad COVID-19 will be for the U.S. economy is almost impossible to say, since there are few precedents to look to. By considering two extreme scenarios, however, it is possible to get a sense of what the issues are.
First, consider the relatively optimistic view: COVID-19 will have effects akin to what economists call a seasonal business cycle — which is to say, it will be over quickly and without much lasting damage.
For context, note that the U.S. economy usually slows in the first quarter. Christmas sales are over, stores are no longer hiring extra workers, and the pace of activity declines, whether it is publishers releasing books or families going on vacation. These seasonal cycles usually don't make the headlines, because most economic data are seasonally adjusted.
That said, in percentage terms, the economic declines from seasonal cycles are often larger than from recessions. The pain is not so bad, however, because the seasonal cycle is over quickly, and by the time the second quarter rolls around the economy is usually picking up steam again.
So if COVID-19 were to hit the economy like a seasonal cycle, it might look as follows: Public events, entertainment and face-to-face services would all dramatically contract, starting sometime this month. Employers in those sectors would cut back on employee hours and lay off some marginal workers. Uber and Lyft rides would plummet. There would be a more general decline of purchasing power, and that in turn would spread the decline to many other sectors.
Still, in this scenario there is also a rapid path back to recovery. At some point the terror of COVID-19 will lift, just as cases in many parts of China now seem to be declining. Once public health conditions improve, retail, entertainment and services can gear back up. Both production and purchasing power will bounce back, similar to how they normally do after the first-quarter doldrums.
In fact, after having been cooped up for a few months, U.S. workers might be especially eager to get back to their jobs and U.S. consumers might be very keen to get out and spend.
But there is a much more worrying scenario. Rather than drawing an analogy with temporary seasonal cycles, an alternative model draws a parallel with cascading disruptions. Have you ever tried building a sand pile and noticed that, at some point, adding a few more handfuls of sand causes a kind of avalanche, leaving just an amorphous heap?
This less sanguine option might look like this: The Chinese economic slowdown leads to a permanent loss of momentum and a global recession. At the same time, with Lombardy closed down, the Italian government defaults, but the European Union is unable to resolve the matter (and the associated bank failures) in a timely and resolute manner. Governments vacillate between policies that make it easier for people to stay at home to limit the spread of the disease and policies designed to get them back in the workplace.
The U.S. would be caught up in the general loss of confidence, as well as the contagion from European banks. But that is only the beginning. As schools close to limit the spread of COVID-19, single parents would have to stay home, and the resulting production bottlenecks would plague the U.S. economy. Maybe New York City would have to cut back on the number of subway trains it runs, and much of the city's economy would grind to a halt.
The problems of missing goods in the supply chain, workplace absenteeism, family health emergencies, and investor uncertainty would compound each other. Any individual act of spending or production, rather than jump-starting further economic activity, would run up against another bottleneck and fade to insignificance. The confidence boost would fail to materialize. Untangling this mess of problems is much harder than just getting people to go back out to dinner and the movies again, and could take years. Traditional demand-side stimulation from the Fed or from the fiscal side would not itself reverse the stagnation.
I don't think anyone knows which of these scenarios — or the intermediate possibilities — is most likely. That makes an appropriate macroeconomic countercyclical policy hard to design. From an economics standpoint, these are uncharted waters. That's all the more reason to focus on solving the underlying public health problems as soon as possible.
Categories: Market news
| Tags: coronavirus, covid-19, economy, employers, european, global, seasonal, US, workers
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Archive | Minneapolis vs. St. Paul
Nice Ride Leaves St. Paul as Market for Scooters Heats Up
By Conrad Zbikowski on April 15, 2019 in Bicycling, Carfree, Downtown, Minneapolis vs. St. Paul, Roads, Sidewalks, Streets, Traffic, Transportation, Trends, Urbanism
On April 2, Nice Ride sent an email to members announcing the start of the riding season April 15 (now April 22, Earth Day, due to weather). In the email, the transportation network nonprofit shared that it was leaving the St. Paul market after nearly a decade on the streets of the capital city. St. […]
Sustainable Saint Paul?
By Melissa Wenzel on October 25, 2018 in Advocacy, Development, Environment, Health, Minneapolis vs. St. Paul, Public Policy
Once upon a time, sometime in 1989, the city of Saint Paul drafted a sustainable take-out container ordinance. It wasn't called that, as the terms "sustainable" and "sustainability" weren't widely used yet. It was written to help achieve city, county and state recycling and waste reduction goals through increasing the types of take out containers […]
Map Monday: Future Land Use Draft Maps for Minneapolis and Saint Paul
By Bill Lindeke on March 26, 2018 in Maps, Minneapolis vs. St. Paul
Once every ten years, the Comprehensive Plans reveal themselves like planets aligning, casting inscrutable shadows upon the zoning codes of our cities and towns. Then, in elaborate community rituals, various civic soothsayers and certified planners use these inklings to predict the future. That time is now, as both Minneapolis and Saint Paul (and other cities […]
Chart of the Day: New Housing Permits, Minneapolis versus Saint Paul
By Bill Lindeke on January 25, 2018 in Chart, Minneapolis vs. St. Paul
Via Scott Shaffer's Twitter, here's a chart showing new housing permits pulled in Minneapolis and Saint Paul. If you're a fan of new housing in Saint Paul, the chart is a bit depressing. Shaffer made the chart in response to the recent news that a proposal for new apartment building on Grand Avenue has been […]
Map Monday: Cutting Board Neighborhoods of Minneapolis and Saint Paul
By Bill Lindeke on December 18, 2017 in Maps, Minneapolis vs. St. Paul
Via Scott Shaffer's Twitter feed, here's a wooden map for you. It's a cutting board available for sale under the "Totally Bamboo" brand, that features the different neighborhoods of Minneapolis and Saint Paul Here's the map, followed by some cutting remarks: OK, so… Minneapolis famously has way too many neighborhoods. Over 80, at last count, […]
Map Monday: Minneapolis / Saint Paul Neighborhood #cityburb Demographic "Comps"
By Bill Lindeke on November 27, 2017 in Demographics, Maps, Minneapolis vs. St. Paul
Here are a pair of fascinating maps from journalistic gadfly, David Brauer, who has been working on a project that pairs urban neighborhoods with their closest demographic equivalents in the suburbs (or Greater Minnesota). Using five elements, "(kid %, whiteness, income, poverty, rental %" — Brauer does his best to match up like places, and […]
Where Will They Park? A Video Series
By John Edwards on August 2, 2017 in Humor, Minneapolis vs. St. Paul, Parking
A little more than a year ago, I was inspired to create what has been called "the definitive three-part [film] series about the people and culture of Saint Paul." But the deep concerns about car storage that I explored in that series aren't unique to Saint Paul. During the most recent meeting of the Minneapolis City Planning […]
Seven Ways Automobility Undermines a City's Bottom Line, from Least to Most Direct
By Bill Lindeke on November 3, 2016 in Economics, Governance, Minneapolis vs. St. Paul
Earlier this month, both Minneapolis and Saint Paul released their property tax levy numbers, and for both cash-strapped core cities, they went up quite a bit. Despite the recent development booms in both downtowns, the fiscal facts on the ground remain stubborn. Saint Paul and Minneapolis have a lot of needs, and funding them is […]
Map Monday: Twin Cities Region by Racial "Community Type"
By Bill Lindeke on August 29, 2016 in Demographics, Minneapolis vs. St. Paul, Race, Trends
Here is a fascinating map from Myron Orfield's Institute for Metropolitan Opportunity that categorizes the Twin Cities' metro region into four different groups based on racial diversity and density. I like this map's simplicity and focus, and also the fine grain at which it makes its distinctions. For example, you can see how different parts of Saint Paul […]
Close your Facebook: Go Get Heard!
By Daniel Choma on July 21, 2016 in Advocacy, Governance, Minneapolis vs. St. Paul, Neighborhoods, New Urbanism, Planning
Without a doubt, now is an emotional and scary time to live in the Twin Cities. The widely circulated video-recorded death of Philando Castile has put the Twin Cities in a political and emotional uproar. Everybody is obviously running a little hot right now, so I hope readership will forgive me for speaking with cohesive candor […]

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A Home in the Skin: Lauren McKenzie Noel at Kink
Author: Douglas Max Utter Leave a comment
I reside in myself, broken, brave, and at peace; Lauren McKenzie Noel, oil and acrylic on canvas, 48 inches X 51 inches, 2019
In a lush series of paintings depicting larger than life-size nude figures, Lauren McKenzie Noel explores the sensuous boundaries and psychological range of self portraiture. Nothing says "modern" with quite the same conviction as the self portrait, which in the centuries of Western art since Rembrandt has repositioned the human face and body in respect to history. In a self portrait the artist testifies to her own existential gravity, gazing as a witness from the thick of the past toward the present, staring at us.
Just three of the thirteen oil on canvas paintings in the exhibit "Self" at Kink Contemporary gallery are self portraits in the traditional sense, presenting a likeness of the artist's facial features. The rest are headless or faceless, yet in other ways astutely observe the character of two very individual bodies, marked by the ebb and flow of life. These somatic renditions of the painter's sisters are highly unusual portraits of flesh itself, which even in our overexposed culture remains concealed by layers of confusion and inhibition. McKenzie Noel's brush follows the gentle convolutions of form and texture that characterize any human being – from head to toe. Lauren and her sisters don't exactly read as "naked", nor are they "nude" in the sense that their bodies have become objects of aesthetic contemplation. Instead the painter establishes an equivalence to living flesh through color and texture. McKenzie Noel's manner of looking, and feeling, has a more than modern ambition – to see the body as it is, neither sexual, social, medical or effetely artistic. The ambition here is to get real. The phrase "birthday suit" might approximate this condition – the condition of innocence that (one hopes) is among the natural rights of women and men alike.
The title of a large, sprawling self portrait at Kink Contemporary is a short sentence that describes the woman looking back at us: "I reside in myself, broken, brave, and at peace." Not that the words correspond exactly to what shines forth from this work. The Lauren McKenzie Noel in the painting may be a bit disheveled ( her hair blossoms out in a disintegrating umber halo), and as she leans unclothed, perhaps on the floor somewhere, propped up on her arms and hands — she looks tired, though hardly broken. But I believe the "brave" part, and the word "reside" also rings true. There is a sense of indwelling identity in this casually articulated body/face, as if form and hue and movement had tied themselves in a series of loose, expressive knots. The woman's shoulders are half-folded upward as they catch the weight of her head in midair. Skin tones are reproduced in tones running from pale ocher through a range of half-umbers. Shadows streak down between her breasts, across the folds of her abdomen (creased like the palm of a hand, starred by the fateful strain of childbirth), flow over her folded left knee and thigh to the bottom of the canvas and thence melting into the body of our world-shadow.
The paintings at Kink Contemporary present their figure-persons somewhat the way that Michelangelo, and after him Auguste Rodin, conceived their depictions of human energy and character, breaking out of a block of raw material into brilliant articulation. All of McKenzie Noel's bodies here are painted in formal isolation, divorced from any particular background, rendered against a warm wash of acrylic or oil paint. Some are cut off as if layered onto this blank space, severed at the head or waist. Others strain against or break through the edges of their canvas prisons, suggesting rebellion, struggle, and birth.
Lauren McKenzie Noel, Trapped in My Own Skin, 42 inches X 32 inches, oil and acrylic on canvas, 2019
Nude self-portraits have become the particular province of women painters and photographers since at least the beginning of the last century, from black and white studies by Anne Brigman (shown originally at Alfred Steiglitz' landmark gallery) and painter Paula Modersohn-Becker's post-impressionist representations of herself, through Frida Kahlo's and Alice Neel's amazing studies of pain and age in relation to self concept, all the way to Jenny Saville, Janice Guy and countless others (Dana Schutz' and her recent "Self –Exam" to name only one, shown last year at Transformer Station in Cleveland), making the self-portrait nude an established practice in the ongoing history of feminist art. There are even some male practitioners who have achieved remarkable heights of expressive plain-speaking in this non-genre genre – I'm thinking of the British painter Lucian Freud and American photographer John Coplans.
Lauren McKenzie Noel holds her own in this distinguished and revolutionary context. If self-understanding often benefits from a longer look by a colder eye, the gaze that this painter brings to bear on her on own face and body has the temperature just about right. Supplemented by the perspective supplied by a consideration of her sisters' bodies, her venture into the lost territories of the self at Kink Contemporary conveys a sense of personal strength, as it traces the muscles and softer edges of the way that one person does, and does not, fit into the realities of a rapidly changing era.
tagged with Douglas Max utter, Kink, Kink Contemporary, Lauren McKenzie Noel, nude
The opinions expressed on CAN Blog are those of the individual writers. Art is somewhat subjective. Well, somewhat. But yes, everybody's a critic.


The tax code has been a major problem facing homeowners who arrange with their mortgage lender to forgive a portion of their debt. To add insult to injury, our tax laws required those taxpayers to pay income tax (called "phantom income") on the money they did not have to pay their lender.
Congress finally got its act together and on Dec. 20, President Bush signed into law a temporary change to the tax code. For the period Jan. 1, 2007, through Dec. 31, 2009, homeowners will not have to pay tax on any debt that is cancelled.
The law does not protect speculators or investors. It applies only to principal residences — that is situations where the taxpayer has owned and lived in the house for two or more years. And only the original loan can be cancelled debt free; if you have a second deed of trust (mortgage) the "phantom income" tax will still apply.
The law also extended the right to deduct private mortgage insurance for three more years.
All of these actions will help solve the current "mortgage meltdown" crisis. But as we enter into a new year, there are other real estate issues confronting consumers. Here are some New Year's resolutions I am recommending for legislators, lenders, appraisers, title companies, and — most important — consumers.
Are you are in the market to buy a house (whether it is a single-family, condominium or cooperative)? Shop around for your mortgage. Many new-home builders will offer you a cash discount if you use the lender's "preferred lender" and its "preferred title company." Sometimes these discounts are worthwhile, but sometimes the extra charges imposed by that lender and the title company exceed the amount of the discount. You may be able to save more money by using your independent lender and title company — even without the discount.
Are you thinking about buying into a community association — whether it is newly developed or an existing property? Read the legal documents carefully. In many jurisdictions, a seller of a condominium unit or homeowner-association house must provide you with a package of documents, including the operating rules and regulations, the budget, and an updated financial accounting. This is important information. Especially today, when delinquencies and foreclosures are on the rise, you want to assure yourself that the association is in good financial shape. The last thing you want is to learn — shortly after you become a member of the association — that there will be a large special assessment to cover any shortfall.
Are you planning to capitalize on the financial problems of others? There are a lot of people who are looking to buy homes either from a bank that has taken title by way of foreclosure or directly from homeowners who are desperate to sell so as to avoid foreclosure. Indeed, many speculators and investors are starting to show up at foreclosure sales hoping to get a good deal.
If this is something you are considering, you must do your homework very carefully. Make sure that you carefully inspect the house. If the current owner is reluctant to give you this opportunity, move on to another property. I have recently been contacted by several investors who bought a house sight unseen, only to learn that the occupants are refusing to move or that when they left the property, they took a lot of the major appliances with them. There is nothing that I can do to help these new homeowners.
You also have to have a complete title search done before you go to closing — even if you plan to pay all cash. Distressed properties can carry a lot of problems — such as tax liens, unpaid assessments, or judgments against the current owners.
Are you planning to buy a new-built home from a developer? Is the home ready for occupancy or will the builder complete the house only after you sign a sales contract? If the home has not been finished, your contract must contain an absolute, firm settlement date. Many new-home sales contracts contain what is known as a "force majeure" clause, which basically is a catch-all phrase for developers to say, "Sorry, your house won't be ready for several more months, because of matters outside of my control." I recommend deleting that concept from all new-home (or condominium) sales contracts.
Additionally, most new-home contracts are, in my opinion, completely one-sided in favor of the developer. For example, although the house may not be ready for settlement for several months, you are obligated to get firm financing immediately. Should interest rates increase — as they may very well in the coming year — you may be stuck with a monthly mortgage payment that you did not anticipate or cannot afford. You should be required to get a mortgage loan commitment only when the builder is ready to sell it to you. You can, however, get a preliminary letter from your lender (I call it a "comfort letter"), which will satisfy the seller that you are a serious buyer; but this is not a firm loan commitment.
proper insurance coverage must be in place. You should consult your insurance agent for more details.
Finally, I have to repeat my longstanding plea to mortgage lenders. Please simplify your legal documents so that every consumer can understand the terms and conditions that are imposed by the promissory note and the deed of trust. And why not go back to the good old days when potential homeowners had to sign only four documents: the note, the mortgage, the settlement sheet (called a HUD-1) and the Truth-in-Lending statement?


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Vertical banded gastroplasty for the treatment of morbid obesity
Br J Surg. 1993 Nov;80(11):1421-3. doi: 10.1002/bjs.1800801122.
S Ashley 1 , D L Bird, G Sugden, C M Royston
1 Department of Surgery, Hull Royal Infirmary, UK.
DOI: 10.1002/bjs.1800801122
Prospective evaluation of 114 obese patients (96 women, 18 men) undergoing vertical banded gastroplasty over a 5-year period was undertaken. The age range was 17-58 (median 37) years, median weight 119.3 (range 79-216) kg, mean(s.d.) proportion of excess body-weight 104.1 (34.9) per cent and median body mass index (BMI) 44.8 (range 33.2-77.7) kg/m2. Three gastric outlet stoma circumferences were used: 5.5 cm (31 patients), 5.0 cm (28) and 4.75 cm (55). A total of 109 patients (95.6 per cent) were available for follow-up. At 1 year after operation, 54 patients (59 per cent) had lost greater than 50 per cent of excess body-weight. No patient lost less than 25 per cent of excess body-weight, and the median BMI was 32.5 (range 21.3-47.8) kg/m2. The operative mortality rate was zero, but three patients (2.6 per cent) with gastric leakage required surgical revision. Vertical banded gastroplasty is a relatively safe and simple procedure that produces significant and sustained weight reduction in the majority of morbidly obese patients.
Follow-Up Studies
Gastroplasty / methods*
Postoperative Complications / etiology


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Lightyear LTY 54799
1. Goodbye Yesterday
3. Bouncin' With Bud
4. Readymix
5. Senator Sam
6. Party Time
7. Joy Spring
8. Funk City/Ola
9. Loose
10. Time Out
11. Chicago
Buddy Rich (Drums) with various personnel.
Big bands can be very exciting, although they can also be dreary - pumping out stock arrangements without much passion or enthusiasm. The big band which Buddy Rich formed in 1966 was different, for several reasons. The main asset was Buddy himself: not only a drummer of huge power and technique but also a fierce taskmaster who demanded only the best from his musicians. Instead of playing tired old arrangements, Buddy commissioned new arrangements from such experts as Bill Holman, Bob Mintzer and Don Menza, mostly arranging their own compositions. And Buddy assembled musicians with impeccable technique, able to tackle the sometimes demanding arrangements.
All these qualities are audible in this selection of tunes recorded in 1977/78 by Alan Gauvin, one of the band's saxophonists, who made a habit of recording the band. The very first track, Goodbye Yesterday, exemplifies another commendable quality in the band: dynamics. Buddy Rich could play loud and long if he wanted to, but his band was also capable of varying the dynamics from fortissimo to pianissimo. The tune is in a fast 6/8 tempo but the band has no trouble dealing with it. This track also shows how Buddy drove the band along with his sharp accents and propulsive drumming. Unlike many drummers whose left-hand accents on the snare drum are random, Buddy emphasises beats which match the rhythm of a tune.
Several items on this album were staples of the Rich bandbook, including Machine, Readymix and Chicago, but they are all played with the enthusiasm of a first performance. Buddy Rich's ensembles always had strong tenor sax soloists in their ranks. Bouncin' With Bud (composed by Bud Powell) has a long tenor solo from Gary Pribeck, with the band joining in occasionally to provide contrast. Senator Sam begins with a long piano solo which sets a placid mood. This makes it more effective when the ensemble comes in at full blast. Steve Marcus's tenor solo has a bassoon-like quality.
As a drummer myself, I often find myself open-mouthed at Buddy's dexterity on the drums. An example of this occurs towards the end of Clifford Brown's Joy Spring, where a short drum solo seems to achieve the impossible. At more than eleven minuites, the title-track is the longest cut on the album. It's a flag-waver which gives opportunities for extended solos by pianist Barry Kay, a saxist who might be Bob Mintzer (although he is not listed in the personnel), trumpeters Ross Konikoff and Dean Pratt, as well as Buddy himself - all excellent.
The personnel details are difficult to read, as they are printed in small white type on a black background. As this album is taken from what might be called amateur recordings, the quality of these tracks is not always perfect, and the bass guitar is often too prominent. Having said that, the sound and balance are surprisingly good. In the sleeve-notes to Wham!, the previous collection of Alan Gauvin's recordings of Buddy Rich, Alan says that he has 90 hours of these tapes. How many more CDs can you get out of those?


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U.S. Leadership is Essential in Delivering on our Promise of Universal Education
photo © UNICEF/Mithila Jariwala
Yasmine Sherif
By investing in the education of the world's most vulnerable children, we are investing in stability, peace and economic prosperity across the globe.
By Yasmine Sherif and Joan Rosenhauer*
We are experiencing an unprecedented global education crisis. In all, 222 million children are caught in the crosshairs, their education – and their futures – pushed aside by the brutal impacts of conflict, forced displacement, climate change and other protracted crises.
Without the safety, opportunity and protection that a holistic quality education provides, these girls and boys will fall through the cracks. Girls will continue to be forced into child marriage and abused, boys will be recruited as child soldiers, and massive portions of our human family will be displaced from their homes.
This will wreak havoc on our global efforts to end hunger and poverty and build a more peaceful world as outlined in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
The United States has the opportunity to stand up for the 222 million children and youth that need our support by investing in their education.
It's the single best investment the U.S. could make in solidifying its position as a global leader. It's the single best investment in spreading the seeds of peace, democracy, and sustainable development the world over. And it's the single best investment in delivering on the United States' foreign policy priorities as outlined in the Department of State and USAID Joint Strategic Plan.
Among its key goals, this plan calls for renewed U.S. leadership and the mobilization of multi-lateral coalitions to promote global prosperity and shape an international environment in which the U.S. can thrive. It calls for the promotion of democratic institutions, universal values and human dignity.
What better tool than an education to achieve these goals?
Think about our world today. A war in Ukraine is creating economic, energy, and food crises across Europe, Asia and much of Africa – and having a sizeable impact on the American way of life.
Massive displacements triggered by war, hunger, climate change, and other factors are creating renewed instability in South America, the Middle East, Africa, Asia and even in Europe and the United States.
Danger isn't just a world away. As we've seen from the senseless violence in Haiti, Venezuela and across much of Central America, danger is at our door.
The Venezuela regional crisis alone – marked by violence, food insecurity and a lack of essential services such as education – has created 7.1 million new refugees and migrants. This is now the largest displacement crisis in the world today.
Climate change also poses substantial risks to the world order. In all, 9.8 million people were displaced by natural disasters in 2020. This number is expected to rise to 140 million people across South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America by 2050.
When the UN's global fund for education in emergencies Education Cannot Wait (ECW) was formed in 2016, there were an estimated 75 million crisis-impacted children in need of educational support. That number has tripled today.
This is bad for the world, and it's bad for the people of the United States. But there is a light on the horizon.
US leadership – built through close partnerships among USAID, the State Department, Congress and other key champions – could be a driving force in catalyzing the transformational change we need to address these intersecting crises through the power of education.
Think about the potential return on investment. For each dollar invested in education, more than US$5 is returned in additional gross earnings in low-income countries and US$2.50 in lower middle-income countries.
The World Bank estimates that if every girl worldwide were to receive 12 years of quality schooling – whether there's a crisis or not – the human capital wealth represented by their lifetime earnings could increase by $15 trillion to $30 trillion.
Through the Global Campaign for Education-US, leading civil society organizations, including Jesuit Refugee Service/USA, the International Rescue Committee, Global Citizen, Save the Children, World Vision, and many others, have united in an effort to ensure the U.S. commits US$158 million over the next four years to support ECW in achieving its goals to reach 20 million children with the safety and power of an education.
By demonstrating continued, multi-year support for ECW and its wide range of strategic partners, the U.S. will remain a leader in global efforts to deliver on the Sustainable Development Goals, address the climate crisis, protect the interests of the American people both at home and abroad, and build a more peaceful and prosperous future.
Education isn't just a human right, education for all is a moral imperative. This February, world leaders will convene in Geneva for the Education Cannot Wait High-Level Financing Conference. The United States must take this opportunity to stand up for justice, stand up for humanity, and stand up for the inherent right to an education of every child on planet earth.
*Joan Rosenhauer is the Executive Director of Jesuit Refugee Service/USA.
Related Topics:EducationfeaturedUSA
The Moral Problem with United States Foreign Policy
The US and Venezuela opposition parties' stance on the Maduro regime
Yasmine Sherif is the Executive Director of Education Cannot Wait, the UN's global fund for education in emergencies and protracted crises. Follow ECW and Yasmine on Twitter at: @EduCannotWait and @YasmineSherif1.
Serbia must reject the ultimatum regarding Kosovo
Aqleema Baloch
The democratic system of government in the United States underwent an unprecedented test two years ago when supporters of President Donald Trump attempted to reverse his election loss—some through illegal schemes, others through a violent assault on the U.S. Capitol. American democracy has started to function better and its prospects have improved since that moment in history.
Extreme election deniers suffered defeats in crucial swing states like Arizona and Pennsylvania in the 2022 elections, which were successfully performed. The riots that attempted to overturn the results of the 2020 election and the role that former US President Donald J. Trump played in inciting them were thoroughly documented by the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the US Capitol. Elections for president were held peacefully in Colombia while candidates with questionable commitments to democracy were rejected in Brazil and France.
The most powerful authoritarian governments in the world are currently having difficulties. The idea of a resurgent Moscow was dispelled by Russian President Vladimir Putin's disastrously planned and carried out war in Ukraine. China's attempt to overtake the United States as the world's greatest economy and most powerful nation has failed due to President Xi Jinping's poor mismanagement of the COVID-19 outbreak. Xi's domestic popularity has been further weakened by China's real estate boom, a 20 percent young unemployment rate, a politically motivated crackdown on the private sector, and soaring local government debt.
However, despite their diminished power, Beijing and Moscow continue to constitute a significant threat to democracy. They will need to disparage other forms of administration and criticize their democratic rivals more and more as their domestic issues get worse. Beijing and Moscow are launching a campaign of deception that targets and amplifies the vulnerability of American democracy as a result of this. Russia and China both, This propaganda campaign tries to delegitimize Western-style democracy in order to quell calls for democratic reforms. In the long run, it aims to establish a new, fragmented international order that prioritizes "national sovereignty" over human rights. It also aims to oust and support friendly governments, as well as combat the growing perception that cooperating with Beijing and Moscow has negative effects on local citizens.
Because Western democracies are weak, Beijing and Moscow are supported in this endeavour. Trump keeps questioning the validity of the 2020 election, and he might soon be charged with a crime. Gridlock, partisan investigations and impeachment attempts, as well as cynical new initiatives to erode rather than restore confidence in the American voting system, may well dominate Capitol Hill for the next two years. Conspiracy theories and misinformation continue to abound on social media, and corporate content moderation attempts have fallen short. With the quick development of generative AI software, which can create deep fakes in which famous personalities appear to be talking and doing things they never said or did, the assault on reality is likely to get exponentially worse. For the two superpowers of disinformation in the world, China and Russia, all of this is a blessing. The propaganda is more effective the more reliable the content.
The decline of democracy in the US aids in the delegitimization of democracy by Beijing and Moscow. American democracy must be strengthened at home if it is to once again serve as a model that may inspire others. The fight for global soft power can only be won by Washington at that point.
Both domestic and foreign security issues are raised by the state of the American democracy. Principal authoritarian rivals of the United States, China and Russia, have taken advantage of (and made worse) America's democratic divides and struggles in the race for world leadership. In order to recover the upper hand, the United States must simultaneously strengthen its own democracy and raise its profile as an advocate for democracy abroad. The democratic movement needs to attack.
A significant investment in American soft power will be needed for this. Public diplomacy spending in the United States peaked at $2.5 billion in 1994 (inflation-adjusted) and nearly surpassed that amount in 2010 and 2011. However, since then, as new problems have emerged, American efforts have remained unchanged, with total expenditures only amounting to $2.23 billion in 2020.
Washington must reenter the struggle for international soft power in a way that upholds American ideals. It must convey the truth in ways that appeal to and influence people around the world. The objective must be to advance democratic values, concepts, and movements in addition to effectively combating misinformation with the truth. Multiple trustworthy streams of information are required to combat misinformation and report the truth that autocracies repress. Additionally, they must be independent; even though the US government may give them financial support, they must run without editorial oversight. They will appear independent, which they are, in this manner.
One option would be to change the Voice of America to resemble the British Broadcasting Corporation more closely. Its goal should be to serve as a role model for the values of the American democratic experiment by offering completely unbiased news on all nations, including the United States. Truth, independence, and expertise in reporting are necessary, but they are not sufficient to win the information battle. A decentralised, pluralistic web of high-quality media is also necessary. In autocracies, local media are ideally situated to collect and distribute evidence of corruption,
Serious policy mistakes and violations of human rights. In order to report the news and provide critical commentary in the absence of media freedom, the United States and its democratic allies must elevate and strengthen the underfunded local media. Funding for public interest media will be needed in the billions of dollars, much of which should go through the nongovernmental International Fund for Public Interest Media (including media operating in exile). The fund is a nonpartisan alliance of multinational foundations that can provide funding for regional independent media while preserving their independence.
Together with its democratic allies, Washington should explore fresh geopolitical and technological avenues for assisting closed regimes to overcome Internet censorship and social media surveillance. Autocracies will be less stable when those living in them have easier access to unbiased information and more secure means of communication with one another. In order to prevent autocracies from seizing control of international Internet standards and protocols, democracies must engage in active and coordinated diplomacy. The biggest flagrantly false and dangerous content must be removed. Social media companies must also take more action to combat the malicious manipulation of their platforms by foreign governments. And by tightening social media regulation, the US and other democracies should support these initiatives. TikTok should be removed from American devices as a first step.
But the democracy in America is not secure. The last Congress failed to pass legislation aimed at reducing the influence of money, strengthening and expanding voting rights, ending gerrymandering, ensuring ethical standards for elected officials, and enhancing election security, and there is little chance that it will succeed in the following one. Even worse, numerous states have taken action to limit voting rights and make it more challenging for minorities to cast ballots. Most concerning, several state legislatures with Republican control, led by North Carolina, are attempting to construct a doctrine of "independent state legislatures," which would allow these bodies to rig election results and even draw partisan gerrymandered voting districts.without being subject to judicial, executive, or redistricting commission oversight. If domestic politics in the United Nations turn into a collection of one-party states, the country will be unable to confront autocracies on a global scale. The revival of American democracy and domestic achievement will be key to countering autocratic deception.
Friction Between United States & Iran: The Tension and Its Impact
Surjit Raiguru
Background Study
The relationship between the United States (US) and Iran has a long and complex history. In the early 20th century, the United States (US) played a key role in the overthrow of Iran's democratically elected government and the installation of a pro-Western monarchy under the rule of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi. This led to a deep mistrust of the United States by many Iranians. In the 1970s, the Shah's regime was overthrown in the Iranian Revolution, led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The new Islamic Republic of Iran was deeply anti-American and took 52 American hostages in the US embassy in Tehran. The hostage crisis lasted for 444 days and severely damaged US-Iran relations. In the following decades, the US has had a policy of economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation towards Iran, citing its support for terrorism and pursuit of nuclear weapons. Iran has also been known to support groups like Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which are designated as terrorist groups by the US.
In recent years, there have been some attempts at improving relations between the two countries. The Obama Administration negotiated a nuclear deal with Iran in 2015, which lifted some sanctions in exchange for limits on Iran's nuclear program. However, the Trump Administration withdrew from the deal in 2018 and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Currently, the US and Iran are in a situation of high tension, with both sides engaging in a series of hostile actions against each other, such as the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad by a US drone in 2020. The US has continued to put sanctions on Iran and labelled several Iranian organisations as terrorist organisations. In summary, the relationship between the United States and Iran has been characterized by a long history of mistrust, hostility and mutual accusations, with both sides engaging in actions that have escalated the tensions between them.
The Tension:
There are several accusations and actions that have contributed to the high tension conflict between the United States and Iran.
From the perspective of the United States, the main accusations against Iran include:
Supporting terrorism: The US government has long accused Iran of providing financial and military support to groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad, which the US has designated as terrorist organizations.
Pursuit of nuclear weapons: The US has accused Iran of seeking to develop nuclear weapons, despite Iran's claim that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes.
Human rights abuses: The US has also accused Iran of widespread human rights abuses, including the repression of political dissidents and minorities, and the use of torture and execution.
Threat to regional stability: The US has accused Iran of destabilizing the Middle East through its support for groups like the Houthi rebels in Yemen and the Assad regime in Syria.
From the perspective of Iran, the main accusations against the United States include: –
Interference in Iranian internal affairs: Iran has long accused the United States of attempting to overthrow its government and interfere in its internal affairs.
Supporting Iran's enemies: Iran has accused the United States of supporting its regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia and Israel, and of providing military and financial support to groups that seek to overthrow the Iranian government.
Violation of human rights: Iran has also accused the US of violating human rights, pointing to actions such as the use of drone strikes and the detention of prisoners at Guantanamo Bay.
Economic sanctions: Iran has accused the US of imposing economic sanctions on Iran, which it claims have caused significant harm to its economy and people.
In terms of actions that have escalated tensions, from the US side:
The killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad by a US drone in 2020.
The US has continued to put sanctions on Iran and labelled several Iranian organisations as terrorist organisations.
Increasing military presence in the Gulf region.
From the Iranian side:
Continuing to develop its nuclear program, in spite of the US sanctions.
Seizing of foreign oil tankers and ships.
Attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia that were blamed on Iran.
Shooting down of a US drone in 2019
It's worth noting that the situation is complex and multifaceted and both sides have taken actions that have escalated the tensions between them.
Its Impact.
The tension between the United States and Iran has had a significant impact on the international community. It has led to increased instability and uncertainty in the Middle East, with both sides engaging in actions that have the potential to escalate into a larger conflict. This can disrupt the oil supplies and lead to an economic crisis. The tension has also had an impact on the security of other countries in the region, as many of them are allied with the United States or Iran and could be caught in the middle of any potential conflict. This has also affected global oil prices due to the potential disruption of supplies from the Middle East. This has also had an impact on the ongoing negotiations and agreements between other countries and Iran, such as the Nuclear Deal. The US withdrawal from the deal and imposition of sanctions has affected other countries' ability to do business with Iran and has also affected the ongoing negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program.
Moreover, many countries have had to navigate the delicate balance between maintaining good relations with both the United States and Iran, as both countries are major powers with significant economic and military influence. This has led to some countries, particularly those in the Middle East, to align more closely with one side or the other, potentially damaging their relationships with the other. Secondly, the tension between the US and Iran has also affected the ability of countries to engage in business and trade with Iran, as the US has imposed economic sanctions on Iran. This has led to some countries to scale back their trade and investment with Iran, or to find ways to circumvent the sanctions. Thirdly, the tension has also affected the efforts of countries to mediate and resolve the conflict. Many countries have tried to act as intermediaries to de-escalate the tensions and find a peaceful resolution, but the deep mistrust and hostility between the US and Iran have made this a difficult task. Fourthly, the tension has also affected the security of other countries in the region, as many of them are allied with the United States or Iran, and they could be caught in the middle of any potential conflict.
Overall, the tension between the United States and Iran has had a significant impact on the formulation of foreign policies in the international borders, as many countries have had to navigate the delicate balance between maintaining good relations with both countries, while also addressing the economic stability and security implications of the tension.
The tension between the United States and Iran is a complex and longstanding issue, and there is no easy solution to melting down the tension. However, some steps that could potentially help to alleviate the tension include:
Diplomatic negotiations: Direct talks between the United States and Iran could be an important step in resolving the tension, provided that both sides are willing to come to the table with open minds and a willingness to compromise.
Support from the international community: Other countries could play a role in mediating talks between the United States and Iran and in putting pressure on both sides to de-escalate the tension. The support of other countries in the region would be particularly important.
Lifting of economic sanctions: The lifting of economic sanctions on Iran could help to improve the country's economy and reduce the impact of the sanctions on the Iranian people, which may reduce some of the hostility towards the United States.
Addressing mutual concerns: The United States and Iran have many concerns about each other's actions, such as human rights abuses, support for terrorism, and destabilizing activities in the Middle East. Addressing these concerns in a direct and honest way could help to build trust between the two countries.
De-escalation of military activities: Both sides should avoid any action that could escalate the situation into a military conflict.
Evidently, these steps would likely be difficult to achieve, but they could help to reduce the tension between the United States and Iran, and provide some relief to the international community.
The World is Entering A Period of Transformation: Can the West lose?
Amer Ababakr
The world is witnessing a complex mix of escalating tensions, in the context of which some see that the US's grip is beginning to loosen, and its hegemony and influence over the international system has begun to disintegrate. The shifting world order is giving way to a diverse mix of protectionist nationalism, spheres of influence and regional projects of the major powers. It cannot be denied that there is a deeper crisis, linked to liberal internationalism itself, and to get rid of the deeply dysfunctional characteristics of the global economic and social system, policy makers and those in control of the fate of the planet need to rediscover the principles and practices of statecraft, and collective action against the tendency towards chaos and the destruction of human structures. Likewise, the multilateral global institutions of the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund and below need to be reformed to reflect this new global reality.
With one of the permanent members of the Security Council violating international law, and the principle of not changing borders by force, which is the case that the US and its allies have been doing for decades as well, the United Nations with all its structures remains mostly marginalized. Meanwhile, dealing with Ukraine as part of the East-West confrontation would spoil for decades any prospect of bringing Russia and the West in general, and Russia and Europe in particular, into a cooperative international order. And if Ukraine is to live and prosper, it should not be the outpost of either side, east or west, against the other, but should, as former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger estimated, act as a bridge between them. Russia must accept that trying to force Ukraine into dependence, and thus move Russia's borders once again, would condemn Moscow to repeating its history of self-driving cycles of mutual pressure with Europe and the US. The West must also realize that for Russia, Ukraine can never be just a foreign state. A geopolitical dynamic, in the context of which the Biden administration seems keen to restore the reputation of the US, and restore its image, after four years spent under the rule of former US President Donald Trump. It wants to clearly distinguish between the behavior and values of the US on the one hand, and the behavior and values of its opponents such as China and Russia on the other.
In the process, Washington wants to re-establish itself as the linchpin of a rules-based international order, but the it, torn internally, will become less willing and able to lead the international stage. It will be difficult to restore its image in the Middle East, especially. For a long time, unquestioned the US support for Israel has allowed it to pursue policies that have repeatedly backfired and put its long-term future in even greater doubt. At the forefront of these policies is the settlement project itself, and the absolutely undisguised desire to create a "Greater Israel" that includes the West Bank, confining the Palestinians to an archipelago of enclaves isolated from each other, the familiar clichés related to the two-state solution, and "Israel's right to defend itself." It loses its magical incantatory power with the rise to power of the fascist far right. The US, which considers itself a mediator in resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, is still offering the Palestinians empty rhetoric about their right to live in freedom and security, while supporting the two-state solution. It's claim to a morally superior position seems blunt, tinged with hypocrisy in Stephen Walt's words. And if the US had normal relations with Israel, the latter would receive the attention it deserved, nothing more.
Chomsky, who seems keen to criticize neoliberal democracy, and wants to rid democracy of the power of money and class inequalities, which cause the success of populism. He sees that there are people who are angry, and dissatisfied with the existing institutions, which constitutes, for the demagogues, a fertile ground for inciting people's anger towards the scapegoats, who are usually from the weak groups, such as European Muslim immigrants or African Americans and others, but at the same time, it leads to a kind of popular reaction that seeks to overcome these crises. There are many uprisings against oppressive regimes, and most of them are due to the impact of neoliberal programs over the last generation. Almost everywhere, in the US and Europe, for example, the rate of concentration of wealth, which has stagnated so great for the majority, has undermined democratic forms, just as elsewhere the structural adjustment programs in Latin America, which has produced decades of backwardness. The negative effects of globalization on the lower and middle social classes, coupled with national resentment against immigration, and a sense of loss of control over sovereignty fueled violent populist reactions against the principles and practices of the liberal order. With the intensification of the crisis due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, as well as the Iranian nuclear file and its faltering paths, Europe appears between a rock and a hard place, although in reality it does not like acts of hatred and imposing sanctions against Moscow, or against Tehran, due to the intertwining of its economic interests, but they must follow the US. As described by Chomsky. Whoever does not comply with it will be expelled from the international financial and economic system. This is not a law of nature, but rather Europe's decision to remain subservient to the "master tutor" in Washington. The Europe and many other states do not even have a choice, and although some peoples and states have benefited from hyperglobalization, the latter has ultimately caused major economic and political problems within liberal democracies. Here Mearsheimer agrees with Chomsky that it has seriously eroded support for the liberal international order. At the same time, the economic dynamism that came with excessive globalization helped China quickly transform into a superpower, as it rearranged itself in a way close to or superior to other major powers, and this shift in the global balance of power put an end to unipolarity, which it is a precondition for a rules-based liberal world order.
When Mikhail Gorbachev presented his vision for managing the post-Cold War era, he proposed what was then called the Common House of Europe. This was one of the options for a unified Europe and Asia region extending from Lisbon to Vladivostok without any military alliances. Today, the world is witnessing a revival of some of the worst aspects of traditional geopolitics. The wars of the major powers in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region, with the increase in Israel's extremist and racist policies, and the possibility of Iran causing instability in the Middle East, have combined to produce the most dangerous moment since World War II. As great power competition, imperial ambitions, and conflicts over resources intensify, the stakes are how to manage the collision of old geopolitics and new challenges. It is inconceivable that there is a state that represents the backyard of any other state, and this applies to Europe as much as it applies to US, Asia and every other region in the world.
Tech layoffs and Indian IT Professionals
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Album Reviews (2016 - PRESENT)
Eclipse - Wired (Album Review)
Written by Alex Stojanovic
Roses On Your Grave
Dying Breed
Saturday Night (Hallelujah)
Poison Inside My Heart
We Didn't Come To Lose
Dead Inside (Bonus track)
Label: Frontiers Music srl
Website: www.eclipsemania.com
www.facebook.com/EclipseSweden
ECLIPSE IS:
Erik Martensson - Lead vocals & guitars / Magnus Henrikkson - Lead guitars & backing vocals
Philip Crusner - Drums / Victor Crusner - Bass & backing vocals
This year is a pretty significant year for Swedish melodic hard rock masters Eclipse. They are celebrating the 20th anniversary of their debut album The Truth & A Little More, which is an album they don't really talk about or play anything from anymore, and they're releasing their eighth studio album Wired. This also marks the band's first album to feature new bassist Victor Crusner, brother of drummer Philip Crusner. Eclipse have become a band I've been listening to heavily over the last few years, because they're one of those bands that always satisfy my craving for good ol' fashioned melodic hard rock with big hooks, heavy riffs, catchy melodies and big sing-along choruses. Obviously I found many more bands of this style since then that also satisfy that craving. However, thanks to Erik Martensson, Eclipse have established a certain sound and tone to their last few records that is easily identifiable, even if the riffs and melodies do sound rehashed from previous songs.
Obviously, the new album doesn't deviate from the direction and sound they took on their last four albums (Bleed & Scream, Armageddonize, Monumentum and Paradigm). The album starts with the high energy triple dose of "Roses On Your Grave", "Dying Breed" and "Saturday Night (Hallelujah)", with them being quite up-tempo with exciting riffs and big vocal hooks, guaranteed to get heads moving, and hands in the air in the form of both fists and horns. My first thought when I heard the chorus to "Saturday Night" is that you can easily sing the chorus to "Viva La Victoria" over it. Try it, you'll be surprised at how much it fits. However, "Dying Breed" has to be my favourite track on the whole record. It's in the realm of "The Storm", "When The Winter Ends" and "Never Look Back".
After some hard-hitting rockers, things are pulled back ever so slightly on "Run For Cover", which has a much more anthemic vibe. It's the furthest thing from a ballad, but it sounds more heroic than the first three songs, and contains one of Magnus Henrikkson's best solos on the album. It's when we reach "Carved In Stone" that we enter pure ballad territory. This track contains mainly acoustic guitars, but the electric guitars and drums come kicking in towards the end. One thing that sets Eclipse apart from many other bands are the huge vocal harmonies between more than two members. This element resurrects vibes of Def Leppard in their prime, which is something that I don't hear in a lot of newer bands today.
The album's only issue is that the second half of the record isn't nearly as strong as the first half. It contains solid moments without a doubt. I just thought that the songs were much stronger in the top half. Tracks like "Twilight", "Poison Inside My Heart", "Bite The Bullet" and "We Didn't Come To Lose" all contain decent moments that save them from the bin, but aren't really the best from start to finish. The best song award for the second half goes to "Things We Love". Also, if the Eclipse formula is beginning to burn you out because it's more of the same from Martensson, the new album won't change any minds. However, Wired is another solid release from one of Sweden's finest rock bands, and is a testament to the power of good songwriting. Eclipse never fail to satisfy my craving for straightforward melodic hard rock.
Highs: "Roses On Your Grave", "Dying Breed", "Saturday Night", "Run For Cover" and "Things We Love"
Lows: The second half is only slightly weaker than the top half.


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text:
I am an award-winning journalist, who joined the FOX 5 News team in July 2017 from our sister station in Tampa, Fla. I'm thrilled to be back in the DMV, where I grew up.
While covering news in Tampa, with stops along the way in Orlando and Myrtle Beach, S.C., I have reported on numerous stories of national interest. I was my station's lead reporter on one of the hardest stories I've ever had to tell, the Pulse nightclub attack.
I reported live the night a jury reached a not-guilty verdict in the George Zimmerman case, followed developments in the "Loud Music" murder case, and was one of the first reporters on the scene when FBI agents shot and killed an associate of Boston Marathon bombing suspect Tamerlan Tsarnaev.
In Tampa, my relentless reporting on safety concerns over discount airline Allegiant Air, led to an early safety review of the company by the FAA. My career in broadcast journalism began before I graduated high school as a reporter and anchor for Teen Perspective 2News, a teen news show at the ABC affiliate in my hometown of Baltimore.
That's where I developed a passion for storytelling. I am a proud graduate of the University of Maryland's Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Go Terps! When I'm not on-air, you can find me at my Crossfit gym or eating my way through the District.
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Muslim Students Association is active on several campuses, including The University of Chicago, Loyola University, Northwestern University, UIC, and DePaul University. Various web pages.
1. Shahadah: testimony that only God is worthy of worship and that Muhammad is his prophet.
4. Zakat: alms-giving, a fixed portion of accumulated wealth, to assist the poor and aid in the mission of spreading Islam.
5. Hajj: pilgrimage to Mecca, once in the lifetime of all Muslims who can afford it.
There are no reliable statistics on the number of Muslims in the United States. Estimates range from 2.5 million (Pew Study) to 7 million (CAIR), with other studies showing 4.5 or 5 million. It seems likely that 6-7 million is reasonable. This would make Islam the fifth largest religious group in America (after Roman Catholics, Baptists, Methodists, Lutherans, and Latter-Day Saints), though it must be allowed that all statistics on religion are highly suspect.
As of 2008, there were approximately 1200 mosques in the United States; the largest is the Islamic Center of America, in Dearborn, Michigan. The states with the largest Muslim populations are California, New York, and Illinois.
Almost two-thirds of Muslim Americans are foreign-born, and about 60% of Muslims in this country are from South Asia or Arab states. Generally speaking, Muslim Americans have higher average incomes than other Americans and have a strong presence in the professions of medicine, law, and computer science. African-Americans constitute about 20% of the Muslim population in this country but are sharply divided into two groups, one of which is not generally recognized by the worldwide Islamic community.
Statistics are from the Pew Research Center (2009). Pew includes Muslim populations for 171 countries, with a world total of 1.57 billion Muslims. The total for China is almost certainly too low. Other Muslim figures by country: Germany, 4 million; France, 3.5 million; United Kingdom, 1.6 million; Spain, 650,000; Sweden, 149,000; Norway, 65,000. According to the Pew study, there are no Muslims in Iceland, Costa Rica, Aruba, the Falkland Islands, Vanuatu, and the Vatican City.


text:
DCC Covid-19 Update
Change in alert levels for Secondary schools in Denbighshire
Following a recent decrease in Covid-19 cases in Secondary schools across Denbighshire it has been agreed to revert back to the Low level of interventions status.
An increase in cases at the start of the school year saw Secondary Schools change their status which enabled schools to implement additional measures to help control the spread of the virus. Recent weeks has seen a reduction in case numbers for secondary age pupils and based on this, the overall alert level for Secondary schools has been changed to low.
Cllr Huw Hilditch-Roberts, Denbighshire County Council's Lead Member for Education, Children's Services and Public Engagement, said: "It is pleasing to see that the work of school staff and parents has helped to reduce Covid case rates in secondary schools and that we can make this decision now.
"In making this decision it's important that we all remain aware that Covid remains in our communities and we remember the importance of seeking tests when symptoms develop and following advice from TTP regarding self-isolation."
"I would like to reassure parents and carers, learners and staff at our schools that we will continue to monitor the situation and take action to help keep schools safe when required should the situation change and I would like to thank all pupils, parents and staff for their support during this difficult time."
All those contacted by Test, Trace, Protect (TTP) are asked to work with the teams and to follow the guidance given.
PCR tests can be ordered at https://gov.wales/get-tested-coronavirus-covid-19 or by calling 119
"To provide our pupils with a first-class education in a safe, quiet, enjoyable and stimulating environment"
© Copyright 2021 - Ysgol Dinas Brân. Website by Delwedd
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text:
abstract Node

type NodeGene <: Node
    #= A node gene encodes the basic artificial neuron model.
    nodetype should be "INPUT", "HIDDEN", or "OUTPUT" =#
    id::Int64
    ntype::Symbol
    bias::Float64
    response::Float64
    activation::Symbol
    timeConstant::Float64
    function NodeGene(id::Int64, nodetype::Symbol, bias::Float64=0., response::Float64=1., # 4.924273,
                      activation::Symbol=:sigm, timeConstant::Float64=1.0)
        @assert  activation in [:none, :sigm, :tanh, :relu]
        new(id, nodetype, bias, response, activation, timeConstant)
    end
end

function Base.show(io::IO, ng::NodeGene)
    @printf(io, "Node %2d %6s, bias=%+2.10s, response=%+2.10s, %s(), time constant=%+2.5s\n",
            ng.id, ng.ntype, ng.bias, ng.response,ng.activation,ng.timeConstant)
    return
end

function get_child(ng::NodeGene, other::NodeGene)
    # Creates a new NodeGene ramdonly inheriting its attributes from parents
    assert(ng.id == other.id)
    ng = NodeGene(ng.id, ng.ntype,
                    randbool()? ng.bias : other.bias,
                    randbool()? ng.response : other.response, ng.activation,
                    randbool()? ng.timeConstant : other.timeConstant)
    return ng
end

function mutate_bias!(ng::NodeGene, cf::Config)
    ng.bias += randn() * cf.bias_mutation_power
    if (ng.bias > cf.max_weight)
        ng.bias = cf.max_weight
    elseif (ng.bias < cf.min_weight)
        ng.bias = cf.min_weight
    end
end

function mutate_response!(ng::NodeGene, cf::Config)
    #  Mutates the neuron's average firing response.
    ng.response += randn() * cf.bias_mutation_power
end

function mutate_time_constant(ng::NodeGene, cf::Config)
    # Warning: pertubing the time constant (tau) may result in numerical instability
    ng.timeConstant += randn() * .001
    if ng.timeConstant > cf.max_weight
        ng.timeConstant = cf.max_weight
    elseif ng.timeConstant < cf.min_weight
        ng.timeConstant = cf.min_weight
    end
end

function mutate!(ng::NodeGene, cf::Config)
    if rand() < cf.prob_mutatebias mutate_bias!(ng, cf) end
    if rand() < cf.prob_mutatebias mutate_response!(ng, cf) end
#     if rand() < 0.1 ng.mutate_time_constant() end
end

get_new_innov_number(g::Global) =  g.innov_number += 1

type ConnectionGene
    inId::Int64
    outId::Int64
    weight::Float64
    enable::Bool
    key::(Int64,Int64)
    innovNumber::Int64
    function ConnectionGene(g::Global,inId::Int64, outId::Int64, weight::Float64, enable::Bool=true, innov::Int64=0)
        key = (inId, outId)
        if innov == 0
            if haskey(g.innovations,key)
                innovNumber = g.innovations[key]
            else
                innovNumber = get_new_innov_number(g)
                g.innovations[key] = innovNumber
            end
        else
            innovNumber = innov
        end
#         println("innovNumber = $innovNumber")
        new(inId, outId, weight, enable, key, innovNumber)
    end
end

function mutate!(cg::ConnectionGene, cf::Config)
    if rand() < cf.prob_mutate_weight
        mutate_weight!(cg, cf)
    end
    if rand() < cf.prob_togglelink
        cg.enable = true
    end
end

function mutate_weight!(cg::ConnectionGene, cf::Config)
#     cg.weight += (rand() * 2 -1) * cf.weight_mutation_power
    cg.weight += randn() * cf.weight_mutation_power
    if cg.weight > cf.max_weight
        cg.weight = cf.max_weight
    elseif cg.weight < cf.min_weight
        cg.weight = cf.min_weight
    end
end

function weight_replaced!(cg::ConnectionGene, cf::Config)
        # cg.weight = random.uniform(-Config.random_range, Config.random_range)
        cg.weight = randn() * cf.weight_stdev
end

function split(g::Global,cg::ConnectionGene, node_id::Int64)
    # Splits a connection, creating two new connections and disabling this one """
    cg.enable = false
    new_conn1 = ConnectionGene(g, cg.inId, node_id, 1.0, true)
    new_conn2 = ConnectionGene(g, node_id, cg.outId, cg.weight, true)
    return new_conn1, new_conn2
end

is_same_innov(self::ConnectionGene, other::ConnectionGene) = self.innovNumber == other.innovNumber

get_child(self::ConnectionGene, other::ConnectionGene) = randbool() ? self : other

function maxInnov(cgs::Dict{(Int64,Int64), ConnectionGene})
    @assert length(cgs) > 0

    cgsKeys = collect(keys(cgs))
    maxCg = cgs[cgsKeys[1]]
    for key in cgsKeys
        maxCg = cgs[key].innovNumber > maxCg.innovNumber? cgs[key]: maxCg
    end
    return maxCg
end

function Base.show(io::IO, cg::ConnectionGene)
    @printf(io, "In: %2d, Out: %2d, Weight: %+3.5f, %6s, InnovID: %d",
            cg.inId, cg.outId, cg.weight,(cg.enable? "Enabled":"Disabled"), cg.innovNumber)
    return
end

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
Q: (Co)homology of propositional logic Sorry if this is a rather vague question, but it seemed like something that might be interesting.
Let $P$ be a family of propositions, and let $\mathcal L(P)$ be the set of all compound propositions over $P$.  Now let $K$ be the set of all finite consistent subsets of $\mathcal L(P)$.
Now note that $K$ is non-empty, and hereditary in the sense that if $A\in K$ and $B\subset A$, then $B\in K$.  In other words, $K$ is an abstract simplicial complex.
Can we say anything interesting about the simplicial (co)homology of $K$?
Note: My guess is that the answer is 'no', because we set $\mathcal L(P)$ up in a fairly arbitrary way (we could, for example, take $\vee$ and $\wedge$ to be our basic connectives rather than $\Rightarrow$ and $\perp$).  But perhaps this 'arbitrariness' only leads to changes that are invariant under homotopy, in some sense.
Has anyone done any work on this, and is there anything interesting that can be said?
Edit: I've just realized that there are many other questions I could have asked about (co)homology of combinatorial simplicial complexes before asking this one, but let's stick with this for now.

A: This is a good example of a situation where (co)homology is the wrong tool to use.
On the one hand, there "ought" to be lots of nontrivial elements of each cohomology group. For example, given any sequence of formulas $p_1, . . . , p_k$, let $\psi=\neg(p_1\wedge . . . \wedge p_k)$; then $$A=\{p_1, . . . , p_k, \psi\}$$ is inconsistent, but as long as no $p_i$ is a consequence of $\{p_j: j\not=i\}$, every proper subset of $A$ is consistent. So at first glance it seems like $A$ ought to correspond to a nontrivial element of the appropriate homology group.
The problem is that there might be something that "fills in" $A$ by other means. Let's consider the simplest possible case: $$A=\{p, q, \neg(p\wedge q)\}$$ (where $p, q$ are distinct propositional atoms). But now let $$A_1\{p, q, \top\}=, \quad A_2=\{p, \neg(p\wedge q), \top\}, \quad A_3=\{q, \neg(p\wedge q), \top\}.$$ Each $A_i$ is consistent, so their union is a subset of the simplicial complex we're looking at, and its boundary is exactly $A$.
To visualize this: consider a tetrahedron with its bottom face removed. The boundary of the bottom ex-face "looks like" a representative of a nontrivial element of cohomology, until we "look up" and see the rest of the complex, which "fills it in." And now I'm going to link to something about persistent homology on general principle.
More generally, we can "fill in" any cycle in the complex you describe. So its homology (and cohomology) is trivial. (In fact, a good exercise is to show that it's contractible!)
This is not to say that the hypergraph you've described, and related hypergraphs, are uninteresting; rather, that (co)homology is too coarse a tool to usefully study it. Indeed, see http://math.uchicago.edu/~mem/mm-char-seq-revised.pdf for some deep results on an analogous hypergraph in the context of first-order logic!

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
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Turn Signals Not Working When Tilt Wheel is Lowered?
I have a 2000 F150 and when I lower the tilt wheel the turn signals stop working.
When the tilt wheel is up the turn signals will blink as normal, as you lower the tilt wheel the turn signals stop working.
Connector in the steering wheel column is loose or broken.
If you take the cover off the steering wheel column and take a look at it, you might find that the clips on the connector are broken, so when you lower it, they pull apart.
you probably are shorting out the wire to the signals whenever the wheel is tilted. same thing happened to mine, although mine blows the fuse for the overdrive off switch and auto locks. solution? tape up wire or replace it where its rubbing.
I believe my friend had the exact problem, it turned out to be the connector, almost positive it was. We had thaught MAYBE the clock spring, but turned out to be the connector was loose, again 99% sure. Those damn clips are bad for breaking, I've broken 2 now I think, still enough to keep them secured.
Thanks Guys Just One More Thing!
Looking at the bottom steering cover in the holes that I would think have some type of screw that holds the 2 half's together appear to have nothing in them when I look in them with a flashlight???
Yes I may be a little slow but how do you get the 2 half's of the steering cover off without damaging them like I sometimes do???
I have just devised a repair method for this problem. I discovered this on my truck 2 days ago, and and after reading posts on this and other forums, have learned that it is common.
My method does not require a new connector, and does not create potential future repair problems, as gluing the connector in place might do. This took about 20 minutes start-to-finish, once I read up on how to open up the steering column.
First, disconnect the battery - you don't want any chance of that airbag hitting you when your face is right in front of it.
1) Use your fingers to pry up the dash trim that surrounds the steering column. It is held by four clips, just like the trim around the stereo and heater controls. Start at the bottom, they just pop loose.
2) There are three phillips screws holding the bottom half of the steering column wrapper to the top half. Take them out. There is a fourth hole used to release the cylinder lock. More on that in the next step.
3) The cylinder lock must come out to remove the top half of the steering column enclosure. Don't worry - its simple. You need a very thin screwdriver or a piece of coat hanger wire. Put the key in the lock and turn it to the "Run" position. There is a small hole in the bottom of the lock cylinder housing. You need to push the wire into that hole to push back the spring-loaded retainer pin, then just pull the lockset straight out. That's what the fourth hole in the bottom cover is for. However, I found it easier to undo the bottom cover and move it aside so that I could see the hole in the housing.
4) once the lock cylinder has been pulled, the top cover can be wiggled out and set aside.
See the piece of steel wire that snakes between items #1 and #2 in the picture, essentially creating a new clip where the original has broken off.
2) Note the triangular bump that would have retained the clip that broke off the connector ( item #1 in the image). With a very small drill bit carefully drill through the center of it,close to the body of the socket. You can only approach it at a steep angle so drill from both sides, until you have a through opening.
3) Use a dremel tool with a small cutting disk to make notches in the back of the connector, directly in line with the broken clip (item #2 in the image) be careful not to cut any wires.
4) Using needlenose pliers, thread a piece if thin, but sturdy steel wire through the hole that you drilled, then wrap the ends around the back of the connector so that it is in the notches that you cut.
Note, if you keep your steering wheel very low, or use your tilt mechanism regularly, I recommend that you splice some length into those wires, or stretch them somehow, so that the problem doesn't reoccur.
Last edited by dbischoff; 01-27-2008 at 03:47 PM.
thanks dbischoff i was just about to take it to the shop and who knows what they would have charged. on mine the right turn and brake light,would only work when column was up.then it quit all together.that orange wire in your picture was broken in two. i soldered in a small piece of wire to extend it so it was longer.only took a couple of hours. thanks again.
You're welcome, Timz36. I'm just pleased to be able to do my part to help someone out, to give something back for all the answers I have found within these forums.
I was a total Ford newbie when I picked up this sporty '01 Flareside just before Christmas. The contributions of all the other members here have been tremendously helpful to me as I worked through all the little problems that the previous owner didn't deal with.
i like the looks of 97-03s also im partial to 73 to79 4x4s.mines do for some changes im gonna do a 3in. body lift and some 35s.i made my own prerunner light bar and added some HELLA 500 lights its only the begining.if anyone can suggest a body lift kit let me know what you used and how you like it.and how hard or easyit is to install.i put one on 77ford 20 years ago.im sure its alittle different now.im an old gas station mechanic.when they used to have them.now im a industrial mechanic so im sure i can doit. let me know how your projects went.and how long they took. thanks!
Dbischoff I know your post is over 2 years old, but it helped me fix my problem and save money. If your still around thanks for helping a F150 owner out.
Dbischoff - Thank you. I replaced my heater core and this clip broke.
I initially followed your post to figure out how to get into my steering column. Good explanation and it worked for me. Thanks!
I was trying to figure out what cause a cloud of smoke to come from my steering column. Once inside, it looked like the multifunction switch was the only electrical item of significance so I pulled it out to take a better look. I opened it up and found no cause for smoke. (Don't open up unless you have incredible patience to put back together!) When I replaced the switch I found another issue with terminals backing out of a connector. I later determined this caused fast blinking, intermittent or non-functioning turn signals. They will also cause the hazards to not work. In one case I had just the right rear turn signal lamp not working.
To remove the multifunction switch remove the top and bottom torx screws. Now, you need to carefully remove the "top" connector. There are locking ears on both sides that need to be carefully pried back. Use two small screw drivers at the same time. You really don't want to break these as they help hold the connector in place when you tilt the wheel.
With the connector removed push the wires all the way in and apply some hot glue to secure them. Let that set for several minutes then re-assemble.
For me, this kept the wires in place and the turn signals working at all steering wheel tilt positions.
I have some photos in a photo album. Go to my profile to see.
Last edited by RogerD; 11-27-2010 at 09:22 PM. Reason: Photos added to profile.
This is fantastic! Now we have the instructions to repair TWO of the issues in my truck. Another task to add to my hubby's to-do list.
Let's see ... next *issue* to search... marbles under the dash!
I was ready to go the junkyard and get myself a new switch but the hot glue gun trick worked like a champ. Thanks for the info and pics!!
Quick Reply: Turn Signals Not Working When Tilt Wheel is Lowered?


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