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Posts Tagged 'export'
Ten reliable rice years
The AMIS prices panel as we find it in 2014 January. Weekly international rice prices (top) are for Thai rice, which have been on a plateau from 2012 Jan to around 2013 April, after which they declined. Rice futures prices (60-day average) have also been on a very gentle upward slope (middle) since 2012 Jan after pronounced swings to that point from 2010 Jan. Rice price volatility was dampened during the last quarter of 2011 until third quarter 2013 (compared to the previous two years) and has moved slowly lower over three years (bottom). Charts: FAO-AMIS
International grains traders rarely consider the historicity of what they deal with day in and day out. Wheat up today, maize down tomorrow, soy futures worth considering for next month, milk powder positions to be liquidated, and so on. Hold what you can profit from only so long as there is profit to be made, and futures are nothing but bets you've studied carefully.
But even for the hard-boiled traders, the last decade of rice has made them turn to look back and consider the curiosities of the market. Inventories of rice, all over the world, have been growing slowly and steadily for close to a decade. Now that trend, which since 2003 has been one of the longest unbroken trends in world agriculture, is ending. The change is being attributed, in the commodity exchanges and grain trading floors, to what is called a 'downgrade' of supplies of rice in India by the International Grains Council.
The first such forecast decline in world rice stocks, of about one million tons, means that the IGC is estimating world rice inventories at the close of 2013-14 to be 108 million tons. The curious aspect is that India is expecting a bumper rice harvest for 2013-14, and although IGC says world inventories will drop slightly (the end of the trend), there is also a reduced estimate for world consumption of rice, which is another curiosity.
According to the traders Thailand, the top rice exporter for years, has been stockpiling rice "at prices some 40%-50% above the market" and thereby prompting credit rating agencies like Moody's to claim that the cost of the Thai programme was "threatening the country's sovereign debt rating".
This is plain rubbish. Traders and commodity exchanges do not grow rice to feed their families and sell if there is a small surplus to sell. The finance bots in predatory agencies like Standard and Poor's, Moody's and Fitch – considered the three largest by the scale of their work – don't know the difference between a cauliflower and millet and can grow neither. Thai, Indian and African small farmers could not care less whether credit rating agencies exist and our governments should learn what true sovereignty means from our small farmers.
The FAO and IGC food price indexes and their sub-indices. For FAO the chart shows the FAO Food price Index and the cereals, oils and fats and dairy sub-indices over the last five years. For IGC the lower chart shows the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index, also over the last five years, with the wheat, maize and rice sub-indices. The IGC rice sub-index has also recorded a plateau from 2012 January onwards with a more pronounced decline setting in from 2013 August. Charts: FAO-AMIS
The odd tale of rice was given a late twist by two cyclones. One is Cyclone Phailin which struck the eastern Indian coast in the first week of October 2013. And he other is Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines in early November 2013. Vietnam is to supply 500,000 tons of rice to the Philippines, which has sought the supplies to boost state reserves depleted by the relief operations after Typhoon Haiyan.
The FAO's Rice Market Monitor for 2013 November said: "Although accounting for much of the worsening in the global outlook, Asia is still expected to sustain growth in world rice production in 2013. According to the latest forecasts, the region is to harvest 672.7 million tonnes (448.6 million tonnes, milled), 1.2% more than in 2012. Foremost among countries responsible for the increase are India, Indonesia, Thailand, Myanmar and Bangladesh. By contrast, drought in China's central and eastern provinces exacted a heavy toll on the intermediate and late rice crops, which may bring about the first production decline in the country since 2003."
I find the FAO Rice Market Monitor more detailed than what the IGC puts out (although IGC's public offerings are but a distillation of what subscribers to the information service obtain). The FAO Monitor has also added that given a poor delivery record so far, Thailand appears unlikely to boost its exports beyond the relatively low level of last year. And that expectations have improved for India, which may replicate the 2012 record performance, with Australia, Cambodia, China (Mainland), Egypt, Pakistan, Paraguay and the USA also forecast to export more.
Tagged with 60-day, AMIS, Bangladesh, China, cyclone, export, FAO, futures, grain trade, Haiyan, IGC, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Phailin, Philippines, rice, rice inventory, rice stock, Thailand, typhoon, Vietnam, volatility
The meat map of the world
The economies in Asia and elsewhere will see around 80 percent of the growth in the meat sector by 2022. The biggest growth will be in China and India because of huge demand from their new middle classes. Chart: Meat Atlas
Industrial livestock production in Europe and the USA began when feed, energy and land were inexpensive, the 'Meat Atlas' has explained, which is published jointly by the Heinrich Böll Foundation and Friends of the Earth Europe.
Nowadays, feed, energy and land have all become scarce and costs have gone up. As a result, total meat production is growing less quickly than before. "The market is growing only for pigs and poultry. Both species utilise feed well and can be kept in a confined space. This means that they can be used to supply the insatiable demand for cheap meat," the Meat Atlas has said.
By 2022, almost half the additional meat consumed will come from poultry. Beef production, on the other hand, is scarcely growing. The USA remains the world's largest beef producer, but the meat industry describes the situation there as dramatic. For 2013, it expects a fall of 4-6 per cent compared to 2012 and predicts the decline to continue in 2014. In other traditional producing regions including Brazil, Canada and Europe, production is stagnating or falling.
"The star of the day is India, thanks to its buffalo meat production, which nearly doubled between 2010 and 2013. India is forcing its way onto the world market, where 25 percent of the beef is in fact now buffalo meat from the subcontinent," said the Atlas (see this news report from 2013 June).
According to the US Department of Agriculture, India became the world's biggest exporter of beef in 2012 – going ahead of Brazil. Buffaloes are considered inexpensive to keep by the USDA (what benchmark do they use for husbandry I wonder). Thus the USDA considers buffalo meat a dollar a kilo cheaper than beef from Western cattle. In addition, the Meat Atlas has reminded us, the Indian government has invested heavily in abattoirs. Moreover, faced with the high price of feed, Brazilian cattle-raisers are switching to growing soybeans which has presented an opportunity for Indian buffalo-meat exporters.
China and India differ markedly in their food consumption patterns. In India, a vegetarian lifestyle has deep cultural and social roots. In surveys cited by the Atlas, a quarter or more of all Indians say they are vegetarian. "But the number of meat-eaters is growing. Since the economic boom (my note: usual dreadful mis-labelling here; it is no 'boom' but a slow destruction) in the early 1990s, a broad middle class that aspires to a Western lifestyle has emerged (true enough). This includes eating meat which has become a status symbol among parts of the population. Nevertheless, meat consumption in India is still small – per person it is less than one-tenth of the amount consumed in China."
The costs borne by the environment because of the world's fondness for animal-origin protein are probably the biggest, but are still difficult to calculate despite some 30 years of following advances in environmental economics. This helps us estimate some damage to nature in monetary terms. It covers the costs of factory farming that do not appear on industry balance sheets, such as money saved by keeping the animals in appalling conditions. The burden upon nature also grows by over-fertilisation caused by spreading manure and slurry on the land and applying fertilisers to grow fodder maize and other crops.
Posted in Agriculture and food, Ecology and environment, Economics and globalisation, Europe, health
Tagged with beef, Brazil, buffalo, cattle, cheap meat, China, energy, Europe, export, feed, fertiliser, fodder, Friends of the Earth, Heinrich Böll Foundation, India, land, livestock, manure, meat atlas, middle class, pig, pork, poultry, slurry, soybean, swine, USA, USDA, vegan, vegetarian
India's 259 million ton target
Self-sufficiency or price volatility? There are choices to be made for food cultivators in India. Illustration: Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation
Quietly, the Ministry of Agriculture has issued its first estimate for the crop year 2013-14. Food price inflation in every single state and union territory has been rising over the last four to five years, and with the furore over the WTO Ministerial Conference just over, and with promises to keep over the National Food Security Act, the big bottom-line should have been accompanied by a number of careful statements from ministries and departments concerned with cultivation and with the supply of food.
These would be the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, the Ministry of Agriculture itself, the Ministry of Food Processing Industries, the Ministry of Commerce (whose minister represented us at the WTO meeting), the Ministry of Rural Development (under which the gigantic rural employment guarantee programme now includes work on agriculture, and safeguards against leaching labour away from the fields when it is needed in those fields), and so on. But, we have a 259 million ton bottom-line number for the country for 2013-14 and there's no elaboration of it whatsoever from any chamber of the government.
Here are the key numbers in million tons (with the first advance estimates, where given, in parentheses). Rice 105 (92.32), wheat 92.5, pulses (which is tur, gram, urad, moong, other rabi and kharif pulses) 19 (18.02), coarse cereals (which is jowar, bajra, maize, ragi, small millets, barley) 42.5 (43.99). To this I have added vegetables and fruit – these are for reasons I cannot fathom (but have suspicions about) still omitted from the targets and from the estimates; this happens four times a year, and they are released with a dullness and lethargy that belie the frantic scenes in the districts whenever a fair price shop is restocked. [You can get the xlsx file with the latest data here.]
Using averages of all-India production of vegetables and fruit for the last three years available (these are 2012-13, 2011-12 and 2010-11) I can supply what could serve as 'targets' for horticultural production as follows: vegetables 154.1 mt, fruit 76.3 mt. But, to hint at my suspicion, this is lucrative export produce and the government agency, the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), working in concert with the Ministry of Food Processing Industries, is responsible for converting our vegetables and fruit into produce shipped off in containers, or into raw material for India's growing 'food service' industry (awful term, as if we needed yet another service to add to the inequitous burden of the info-tech and financial services) and the domestic organised retail trade (yes that means Walmart, Tesco, Auchan, Carrefour, Metro and who knows who else).
Posted in Agriculture and food
Tagged with 2013, 2014, advance estimate, agriculture, Auchan, Carrefour, cereals, estimate, export, food, fruit, India, metro, production, pulses, Tesco, vegetable
One curious question for international grains traders
The International Grains Council's charts for all grains and major traded grains. What is the connection between these charts and local food price inflation?
The International Grains Council's monthly Grain Market Report for 2013 October finds its grains and oilseeds index down 16% from the same period a year ago because, as the IGC has said, "the supply outlook for grains, rice and oilseeds markets is significantly more comfortable than last year".
Recent export prices for major traded grains. Source: IGC
The IGC has raised the output forecast for total grains (wheat and coarse grains) in 2013-14 by 10 million tons this month, to 1,940 mt, up 8% from the same period last year. Demand is also expected to rise, but by a slower 5% compared to the same period a year ago. The IGC has said that "inventories are seen recovering by 39 mt to a four-year high at the end of 2013-14".
The global trade forecast is raised by 3 mt, to 273 mt, which will exceed the previous record in 2010-11. Hence the question ought to be: if the international trade in grain collects, moves and processes just under 15% of the world's total grain, why do prices in our local wholesale and retail food markets get influenced so much by what the IGC's monthly report describes? This is not an answer you can expect given to you with honesty and concern from your local administration, much less from the food retail and industrial agriculture representatives.
For the major grains, here are the IGC summaries. Wheat output is expected to rise by 6% in 2013-14 from the level of a year ago and closing stocks are seen up by 7 mt, at 182mt, although this would still be below the level seen in 2011-12. The 2013-14 forecast for the global maize harvest has been raised by 5 mt this month to a record 948mt, and stocks are seen recovering to a 13-year high of 152 mt.
Rice is considered by the IGC to be "mixed, with good export demand and weather-related crop worries underpinning values in Vietnam, but Thailand's prices fell further on limited buying interest and pressure from heavy intervention reserves". Rice output for 2013-14 is forecast up 1% from a year ago, with world ending stocks expected to rise for a ninth consecutive year. (The IGC's report for 2013 October is available here.)
Tagged with agricultural commodity, export, food commodity, food inflation, global trade, grain trading, IGC, index, International Grains Council, Maize, oilseeds, rice, Soyabean, wheat
For all the pork in China
"China's strategic pork reserve is the direct consequence of an emerging, meat-eating middle class and a government determined to feed them," is how the journal Fast Coexist called it (link below). Photo: Courtesy Fast Coexist
The Earth Policy Institute has a startling data highlight about the consumption of pork in China. Half the world's pigs, more than 470 million of them, live in China. While meat consumption in the United States has fallen more than 5% since peaking in 2007, says the institute, Chinese meat consumption has jumped 18%, from 64 million to 78 million tons — twice as much as in the USA (see the charts below). China already buys more than 60% of the world's soybean exports to feed to its own livestock and has been a net importer of pork for the last five years.
In late May 2013 the American company Smithfield Foods Inc, which is reported to be the world's leading pork producer, was bought by the Chinese company Shuanghui International, which is the owner of China's largest meat processor. The acquisition has been reported by China Daily; USA Today seemed cautiously happy about China's buying of American hogs; Forbes hastily attempted an analysis of what it all means; Fast Coexist provided that analysis with knobs on.
People in China ate 53 million tons of pork in 2012, which is six times as much as in the USA. On a per person basis, consumption in China first eclipsed that in the USA in 1997. Now the average Chinese eats 39 kg of pig meat each year, compared with 27 kg in the USA. Charts: Earth Policy Institute
Posted in Agriculture and food, Ecology and environment, Economics and globalisation, Population
Tagged with China, export, feed, hog, meat, meat consumption, packer, pig, pork, processing, Shuanghui International, Smithfield Foods, soya, soyanean, USA
On foodgrain stock forecasts, the IGC and USDA are both tentative
Foodgrain exports forecasts for 2012-13 by the USDA's WASDE. These are the major exporting countries, exports in million tons.
In this late February capsule of the foodgrain forecasts from the International Grains Council (IGC) and the US Department of Agriculture's WASDE (world agriculture supply and demand estimates) we see estimates for slightly higher production, but also somewhat lower consumption. The question is: what about stocks, on which there is never enough knowledge distributed as to who holds them (government or private, traders or bankers) and how they are used by food markets or agricultural commodities markets?
Still, here is what the IGC has said:
Following minor revisions to the 2012-13 forecasts, the estimate for total grains end-season stocks (excluding rice) has been revised up by 4mt to 326m, including increases for both wheat and maize. Overall, however, they remain down 40mt year-on-year at a six-year low, or a 17-year low for the major exporters.
IGC's 2013 February grain market report presented the first forecast for the 2013-14 supply and demand balance for wheat. "While world output is tentatively projected up 4% year-on-year, much is expected to be absorbed by higher demand and end-season stocks are likely to rise by just 2mt, following a 21m decline in 2012-13. The forecast for 2012-13 end-season maize stocks has been revised 1.7mt higher this month, but major exporters' end-season inventories are still put at a 16-year low," said the 2013 February report.
Here are the major foodgrain forecasts for wheat, rice, coarse grain and maize:
According to the IGC – Major exporters' stocks for 2012-13 are revised down by 1.5mt, to 49.9mt, but upward revisions for China and India raise the global total to 176mt, which is still down 21m from last year. Increases for Brazil, Iran and Russia help to lift the 2012-13 world trade forecast by 0.8mt this month, to 137.4m. World output for 2013-14 is tentatively projected up 4% year-on-year, but much is expected to be absorbed by higher demand leaving little room for stock building.
According to WASDE – Global wheat supplies for 2012-13 are nearly unchanged with a small increase in beginning stocks more than offsetting a small decrease in production. Global wheat output is projected 0.7 million tons lower. Production is lowered for Kazakhstan and Brazil, but raised for Ukraine, South Africa, and Belarus. Global wheat consumption is virtually unchanged at 673.4 million tons; however, global consumption is projected down 24.6 million tons year to year, mostly reflecting lower feed and residual use in 2012-13. World wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 are also nearly unchanged this month at 176.7 million tons.
According to the IGC – At 466mt, world rice production is forecast to be little changed year-on-year, as smaller harvests in Asia, particularly in India, are offset by gains elsewhere. World use is expected to rise by 2% year-on-year, to a fresh record, underpinned by increases in Asia's leading consumers. Global ending stocks are forecast to fall marginally, but supplies in the major exporters are expected to rise to a new record. World trade in 2013 is projected to decline by 5% as key importers in Asia and Africa reduce purchases from last year's highs.
According to WASDE – Global 2012-13 projections of rice production and consumption are raised from last month, but trade and ending stocks are lowered. Global 2012-13 rice production is forecast at a record 465.8 million due to increases for Bangladesh, Bolivia, and Nepal partially offset by reductions for Argentina and Laos. Global consumption is raised 0.7 million tons to a record 469.3 million as relatively small changes are made to several countries including Bolivia, Iraq, and Nepal. Global exports for 2012-13 are lowered slightly due mainly to reductions for Argentina and China. Imports are reduced for Bangladesh, Cuba, Egypt, and Indonesia. Global 2012-13 ending stocks are reduced 0.5 million tons to about102.0 million due mostly to decreases for Egypt and Indonesia.
Coarse grain
According to WASDE – Global coarse grain supplies for 2012-13 are projected 2.1 million tons higher as a decrease in beginning stocks is more than offset by a 2.9-million-ton increase in production. Lower 2012-13 beginning stocks mostly reflect an increase in 2011-12 corn exports for Brazil and revisions to the Paraguay corn series that lower 2011-12 corn area and yield. Global 2012-13 production is also higher this month for sorghum, barley, oats, and rye. Sorghum production is raised 0.4 million tons for Mexico with higher area and yields for the summer crop, but lowered 0.2 million tons for Australia with reduced prospects for area and yields. Global barley, oats, and rye production are up a combined 0.6 million tons on larger reported crops for the FSU-12 countries.
Maize (corn)
According to the IGC – Global production is forecast to decline by 3% year-on-year, with sharp falls in the US and EU offsetting rises elsewhere, including in China and the southern hemisphere. Despite some less than ideal weather in recent months, Brazil and Argentina are still set to harvest record crops. Due to tighter supplies, world use is expected to dip by 1% year-on-year, led by reduced demand from the US ethanol sector. With total use again expected to exceed production, closing stocks will decline for a fourth consecutive year, including a sharp drop in the major exporters.
Tagged with biofuel, China, commodities, corn, ethanol, export, foodgrain, futures, grain, IGC, India, Maize, rice, USDA, WASDE, wheat
Iran's oil, Europe's oil imports, many threats, upward prices
Iranian President Ahmadinejad punches the air in front of a banner of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during rally to mark the anniversary of Islamic Revolution in Tehran. With its threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is responding to the United States' decision to impose sanctions on financial institutions that deal with Iran's central bank. Photo: Der Spiegel / Reuters
The concern about the multi-bloc confrontation with Iran (the Islamic Republic of, to use the official name) has continued from December 2011 into January 2012. Oil prices and petroleum products markets have been affected. There have been oft-repeated and serious concerns that there could be some armed confrontation, especially involving Israel and Iran. There has also been speculation that Iran's government would block the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a third of all crude oil shipped worldwide passes. Some of these concerns have abated in the last week, but only partially.
Now, Der Spiegel has reported that although the European Union embargo on Iranian oil will only come into effect in six months, the leadership in Tehran wants to act first: Exports to Europe are set to be halted immediately. It is a move which could mean added difficulties for struggling economies in southern Europe. The Iranian government wants to present a bill to parliament this weekend calling for an immediate halt to oil deliveries to Europe. The move, with most reports citing the Iranian news agency Mehr, has come about in response to the EU agreement to impose sanctions against Iran, which were announced earlier this week.
The sanctions banned any new contracts for buying oil from Iran, but allowed existing deals to continue until July in order to give countries time to find other sources. But that process is now at risk after the latest move from Tehran, a step the Iranian government had already threatened. "If this bill is passed, the government will be forced to stop selling oil to Europe before the actual implementation of their sanctions," said Emad Hosseini, spokesman for the Iranian parliament's energy commission, reportedly said. The bill is set to become law on Sunday.
An oil tanker is seen docked next to Iraq's vital al-Basra oil terminal, in Persian Gulf waters. Four decades after the 1973 oil shock, Iran and the West are once again embracing oil as a weapon. Tehran is threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz, while the industrialized countries are considering a boycott of Iranian oil. Photo: Der Spiegel / AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili
The EU sanctions allow for oil deliveries from Iran until July 1. Any pre-empting of this timescale by Tehran could prove problematic for countries like Italy, Greece and Spain, who would need to urgently find new suppliers. China, meanwhile, a major importer of Iranian oil, has also criticized the EU sanctions. The Xinhua news agency quoted the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Thursday as saying: "To blindly pressure and impose sanctions on Iran are not constructive approaches." Many members of the EU are now heavily dependent on Iranian oil. Some 500,000 barrels arrive in Europe every day from Iran, with southern European countries consuming most of it. Greece is the most exposed, receiving a third of all its oil imports from Iran, but Italy too depends on Iran for 13 percent of its oil needs. If this source were to dry up abruptly, the economic conditions in the two struggling countries could become even worse.
Iran holds around 137 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, or nearly 10 percent of the world total, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011. Despite sitting on the world's second largest reserves of natural gas, Iran's growing appetite for its own gas, combined with tightening international sanctions that have throttled its fledgling liquefied natural gas (LNG) programme, have made it a net gas importer for most of the last decade. Natural gas accounts for 54 percent of Iran's total domestic energy consumption, while most of the remainder of energy consumption is attributable to oil, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Graphic: Der Spiegel / Reuters
The Gloria Center's Barry Rubin has said that the claim of Israel being about to attack Iran repeatedly appears in the media (see his article, 'Israel Isn't Going to Attack Iran and Neither Will the United States'). "Some have criticized Israel for attacking Iran and turning the Middle East into a cauldron of turmoil (not as if the region needs any help in that department) despite the fact that it hasn't even happened," he said. "On the surface, of course, there is apparent evidence for such a thesis. Israel has talked about attacking Iran and, objectively, one can make a case for such an operation. Yet any serious consideration of this scenario—based on actual research and real analysis rather than what the uninformed assemble in their own heads—is this: It isn't going to happen."
Rubin said that the main leak from the Israeli government, by an ex-intelligence official who hates Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has been that the Israeli government already decided not to attack Iran. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has publicly denied plans for an imminent attack as have other senior government official. "Israel, like other countries, should be subject to rational analysis. Articles being written by others are being spun as saying Israel is going to attack when that's not what they are saying."
So why are Israelis talking about a potential attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, Rubin has asked. Because that's the only way Israel has to pressure Western countries to work harder on the issue, to increase sanction and diplomatic efforts, is his answer.
A satellite image of the Persian Gulf. About a third of all the crude oil shipped worldwide passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman. Photo: Der Spiegel / DPA / NASA / The Visible Earth
Bloomberg provided a round-up of Iran-related oil and prices news – oil declined a second day in New York as rising U.S. crude inventories countered data showing gasoline demand increased last week in the world's largest oil consumer. Futures fell as much as 0.9 percent after dropping 0.6 percent yesterday. Crude stockpiles probably rose last week as imports rebounded, according to a Bloomberg News survey before an Energy Department report today. U.S. gasoline demand grew for a second week, MasterCard Inc. data showed yesterday. The European Union embargo on Iranian oil supplies will "bear bitter fruit," Iran's Foreign Affairs Ministry said this week.
Ria Novosti, the Russian news agtency, quoting a CNN report, said the United States will use all available options to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, President Barack Obama said in his State of the Union address on Tuesday. "Let there be no doubt: America is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I will take no options off the table to achieve that goal," Obama said.
The New York Times reported that as the Obama administration and its European allies toughened economic sanctions against Iran on Monday — blocking its access to the world financial system and undermining its critical oil and gas industry — officials on both sides of the Atlantic acknowledge that their last-ditch effort has only a limited chance of persuading Tehran to abandon what the West fears is its pursuit of nuclear weapons. "That leaves open this critical question: And then what?"
Fox Business has reported that the International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday that global crude prices could rise as much as 30 percent if Iran halts oil exports as a result of U.S. and European Union sanctions. If Iran halts exports to countries without offsets from other sources it would likely trigger an "initial" oil price jump of 20 to 30 percent, or about $20 to $30 a barrel, the IMF said in its first public comment on a possible Iranian oil supply disruption.
Impacts on refining in Europe was reported by Bloomberg – the European Union's embargo on Iranian oil threatens to accelerate refinery closures in Europe, the head of Italy's refiners' lobby said. "Asian countries not applying the embargo could buy the Iranian oil at a discount and sell cheap refined products back to us," Piero De Simone, general manager of Unione Petrolifera, said in an interview in Rome. "Italy already risks the closure of five refineries and at a European level we're talking about 70 possible shut downs."
Brinksmanship over Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz sparked a rally in oil prices at the end of last year, The National of UAE reported, with sabre-rattling by Iran and the US sending the price of Brent crude futures to highs of US$111.11 per barrel. Saudi Arabia looks set to benefit from sanctions against Iran as the kingdom is one of the few oil producers with capacity to make up any shortfall they will cause. Meanwhile India's oil minister said Wednesday the energy-hungry nation was continuing to import oil from Iran and was not bound by new sanctions imposed by the European Union.
Reuters provided a factbox about Iran's oil exports as OPEC's second largest producer. Iran sells large volumes of oil to China, India, South Korea, Japan and Italy. But Greece, Turkey, South Africa and Sri Lanka rely most heavily on Iranian oil as a percentage of imports. Sri Lanka imported 39,000 bpd in the first half of the year, IEA data shows. It is completely reliant on Iranian oil.
EU figures show imports of Iranian crude were up more than 7% in the third quarter of 2011 compared to the second quarter. The EU says it imported about 700,000 bpd of Iranian crude oil in the third quarter of 2011, compared to about 655,000 bpd in the second quarter.
The European Union agreed on Jan. 23 to ban Iranian oil imports, but the embargo will not be fully implemented until July 1, to avoid harming economies to whom Iran has been a major supplier. The EU move follows new financial sanctions signed into law by U.S. President Barack Obama on Dec. 31, which aim to make it difficult for countries to buy Iranian oil in an attempt to discourage Tehran's nuclear programme.
Iran produces about 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude with another 500,000 bpd of condensate – light hydrocarbon liquids. Iran exports about 2.6 million bpd, of which about 50,000 bpd is refined products, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates. The top 10 buyers of Iranian crude last year were as follows:
An Iranian oil technician makes his way at the oil separator facilities in Azadegan oil field, near Ahvaz, Iran. Photo: Der Spiegel / AP Photo/Vahid Salemi
Country – Imports (bpd) – % Imports
1. China – 543,000 – 10
2. India – 341,000 – 11
3. Japan – 251,000 – 5.9
4. Italy – 204,000 – 13.2
5. South Korea – 239,000 – 7.4
6. Turkey – 217,000 – 30.6
7. Spain – 170,000 – 16.2
8. Greece – 158,000 – 53.1
9. S.Africa – 98,000 – 25
10.France – 75,000 – 6.0
[Figures for EU countries are from the bloc's Eurostat office and are for the third quarter. Figures for other OECD countries are from the IEA and for the second quarter. Figures for China, India and South Africa are for the first half of 2011 from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).]
Posted in Economics and globalisation, Energy
Tagged with barrels, BP, bpd, Brent, China, crude, EIA, embargo, energy, EU, Europe, European Union, export, futures, gasoline, GCC, Greece, Hormuz, IEA, IMF, India, Iran, Israel, Italy, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Netanyahu, Obama, oil, oil supply, refinery, refining, sanctions, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Strait, Tehran, USA
The global transmission of high food prices-World Bank's February evidence
Higher global wheat prices have fed into sharp increases in domestic wheat prices in many countries, the February 2011 Food Price Watch of The World Bank has said. The transmission rate of global wheat price increases to the domestic price of wheat-related products has been high in many countries, according to the report. "For instance, between June 2010 and December 2010, the price of wheat increased by large amounts in Kyrgyzstan (54%), Bangladesh (45%), Tajikistan (37%), Mongolia (33%), Sri Lanka (31%), Azerbaijan (24%), Afghanistan (19%), Sudan (16%), and Pakistan (16%). Several of these countries have a large share of calories consumed from wheat-based products, particularly for the poor. Global food prices continue to rise, though not uniformly for all grains."
The World Bank's Food Price Watch is produced by the Bank's Poverty Reduction And Equity Group, Poverty Reduction And Economic Management Network. The World Bank's food price index rose by 15% between October 2010 and January 2011, is 29% above its level a year earlier, and only 3% below its June 2008 peak. A breakdown of the index shows that the grain price index remains 16% below its peak mainly due to relatively stable rice prices, which are significantly lower than in 2008. The increase over the last quarter is driven largely by increases in the price of sugar (20%), fats and oils (22%), wheat (20%), and maize (12%).
Maize prices have increased sharply and are affected by complex linkages with other markets. In January 2011, maize prices were about 73% higher than June 2010. These increases are due to a series of downward revisions of crop forecasts, low stocks (U.S. stocks-to-use ratio for 2010-11 is projected to be 5%, the lowest since 1995), the positive relationship between maize and wheat prices, and the use of corn for biofuels.
Ethanol production demand for corn increases as oil prices go up, with sugar-based ethanol less competitive at current sugar prices. Recent United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates show the share of ethanol for fuel rising from 31% of U.S. corn output in 2008-9 to a projected 40% in 2010-11. Increased demand for high fructose corn syrup from countries such as Mexico, as they substitute away from higher priced sugar, also contributes to higher demand for corn. Prospects of easing in this market depend partly on the size of the crops in Latin America, particularly Argentina, which has been affected by unusually dry weather due to the La Nina effect, and the extent of import demand from China in 2011 as well as oil and sugar price trajectories.
Domestic rice prices have risen sharply in some countries and remained steady in others. The domestic price of rice was significantly higher in Vietnam (46%) and Burundi (41%) between June–December 2010. Indonesia (19%), Bangladesh (19%), and Pakistan (19%) have increased in line with global prices. These Asian countries are large rice consumers, especially among the poor. Rice prices have increased in Vietnam despite good domestic harvests. This is primarily due to the depreciation of the currency, which has fuelled overall inflation and expectations of higher demand from large importers and led to the minimum rice export price being raised by the Vietnamese government. Rice price increases in Sri Lanka (12%) and China (9%) have been relatively moderate in the second half of 2010, while in Cambodia and the Philippines the retail price of rice remained largely unchanged during this period.
Largest Movers in Domestic Prices, June to December 2010
Kyrgyzstan (retail, Bishkek) 54%
Bangladesh (retail, national average) 45%
Tajikistan (retail, national average) 37%
Mongolia (retail, Ulaanbaatar) 33%
Sri Lanka (retail, Colombo) 31%
Azerbaijan (retail, national average) 24%
Afghanistan (retail, Kabul) 19%
Sudan (wholesale, Khartoum) 16%
Pakistan (retail, Lahore) 16%
Vietnam (retail, Dong Thap) 46%
Burundi (retail, Bujumbura) 41%
Bangladesh (retail, Dhaka) 19%
Indonesia (retail, national average) 19%
Mozambique (retail, Maputo) 14%
Cameroon (retail, Yaounde) 43%
Uganda (wholesale, Kampala) 38%
Kenya (wholesale, Nairobi) 22%
Brazil (wholesale São Paulo) 56%
Argentina (wholesale, Rosario) 40%
Rwanda (wholesale, Kigali) 19%
Tagged with Afghanistan, Argentina, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, beans, Brazil, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, cereal, China, corn syrup, currency, ethanol, export, food inflation, food price, fructose, grain, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Maize, Mongolia, Mozambique, Pakistan, Philippines, rice, Rwanda, Sri Lanka, Sudan, sugar, Tajikistan, Uganda, USDA, Vietnam, wheat, World Bank
Gauging China's influence on the world-IMF
Salesperson in a textile shop in Beijing, China. Photo: IMF/Finance & Development
In an article in the International Monetary Fund magazine 'F&D' (Finance & Development), Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis discuss the ramifications of China's opening-up policy. They said that the effects are well documented but even so, "the facts are astonishing". From relatively poor beginnings three decades ago, the authors have said, China's economy is now second in size only to that of the United States of America.
"Real gross domestic product (GDP) has grown by about 10% annually, implying a doubling every seven to eight years. The resulting 16-fold increase in a major economy's national income during a single generation is unprecedented."
China's opening up has meant increasing linkages with the rest of the world, as reflected in its rising share in world trade, global markets for selected goods, and capital flows. China's stronger linkages with the global economy have also led to a growing use of its currency, the yuan, abroad, as well as closer correlation of market sentiment in China and the rest of Asia and, more recently, the world. China's share in world trade has increased nearly tenfold over the past three decades, to about 9 percent, while its share in world GDP has risen to 13% from less than 3%.
"The increase in China's share of world trade is particularly striking in the markets for certain products. China now accounts for nearly one-tenth of global demand for commodities and more than one-tenth of world exports of medium- and high-technology manufactured goods. China's rising share in world trade over the past three decades is underpinned by a rise in its share in the external trade of every major region (chart). China's share is, perhaps unsurprisingly, largest in the trade of other emerging Asian economies (13%), and this share has seen a striking increase over time. But its share of African trade is almost as large, and its share in trade with the Middle East, the Western Hemisphere, and Europe has increased several-fold in recent decades."
To quantify the effects of China's growth on the rest of the world, Arora and Vamvakidis conducted an empirical analysis using data from the past few decades (the details are to be found in the paper this article is based upon). Shifting to the longer term, they estimated the impact on the rest of the world of long-term changes in Chinese growth, smoothing over the short-term fluctuations associated with the typical business cycle and focusing on longer-term fluctuations. Their results, based on data for the past two decades, suggest that a 1 percentage point change in China's growth sustained over five years is associated with a 0.4 percentage point change in growth in the rest of the world (coincidentally the same amount as for the short and medium term).
Tagged with Africa, Asia, capital, China, economy, Europe, export, GDP, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Middle East, trade, USA, yuan
World agri supply and demand estimates, Sep 2010
The US Department of Agriculture's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) report is out, dated 10 September 2010. Here are the highlights of its analysis on global wheat and rice.
Global wheat supplies for 2010-11 are projected down 0.7 million tons as higher carry-in mostly offsets a 2.7-million-ton reduction in world output. Much of the offset is explained by Canada, where beginning stocks are increased 1.5 million tons, as reported by Statistics Canada, and production is increased by 2.0 million tons. These changes mostly offset lower production in Russia and the European Union (EU) 27. Production for Russia is lowered 2.5 million tons based on the latest harvest results for the drought-affected central growing areas in the Volga and Urals Federal Districts. EU-27 production is lowered 2.4 million tons with the largest reductions for Hungary and Romania where heavy summer rains reduced yields. Smaller reductions in a number of other member countries also reduce EU-27 production. Although the reduction for Germany is small, persistent and heavy August rains have reduced supplies of high quality milling wheat. Other production changes include a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Belarus and a 0.4-million-ton increase for Morocco.
World wheat trade for 2010-11 is raised with global exports projected 1.4 million tons higher. Export shifts among countries largely reflect availability of supplies and increased competition from North America. Exports are raised 2.0 million tons for Canada and 1.4 million tons for the United States. Exports are also raised 0.5 million tons each for Iran and Kazakhstan. A 0.5-million-ton increase in Russia exports reflects larger-than-expected shipments during early August, before implementation of the export ban on August 15. These increases more than offset a 3.0-million-ton reduction for EU-27 and a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Australia. EU-27 exports are lowered with reduced supplies and increased competition from Canada. Logistical constraints are expected to limit exports from Australia.
World wheat imports for 2010-11 are raised with increases for Russia and Nigeria. Imports for Russia are raised 1.4 million tons as imports from regional suppliers support domestic usage, particularly for feeding. World wheat consumption is lowered 3.8 million tons with lower consumption in EU-27, Russia, and Kazakhstan outweighing increases for Pakistan, Canada, and Nigeria. Wheat feeding is lowered 2.0 million tons for EU-27 with imported coarse grains expected to partly replace wheat in livestock and poultry rations. Global ending stocks are projected 3.0 million tons higher with increases for EU-27, Canada, and Australia. Ending stocks are lowered for Pakistan and Russia.
Projected global 2010-11 rice supplies and use are both lowered from last month. Global rice production is projected at a record 454.6 million tons, down 4.6 million tons from last month's estimate, mainly due to large declines for several countries including China, Indonesia, and Pakistan.
China's 2010-11 rice crop is reduced 1.5 million tons to 136.0 million, due mainly to a decrease in the early rice crop. Both area and yield are reduced by early season drought in some areas combined with late-season flooding in other areas. Indonesia's 2010-11 rice crop is reduced 2.0 million tons to 38.0 million, based in part on a report from the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Jakarta. Indonesia's 2009-10 rice crop is also reduced – a reduction of 1.7 million tons to 37.1 million. Indonesia's yield growth has stagnated due to weather, pests, and disease problems. Pakistan's 2010-11 rice crop is reduced by 1.2 million tons or 18 percent to 5.3 million as severe flooding lowered both area and average yield.
Global 2010-11 exports are reduced by 0.6 million tons to 31.0 million, mainly due to a reduction for Pakistan. Global consumption is lowered by nearly 2.3 million tons, mainly due to decreases for China (-0.5 million) and Indonesia (-1.35 million). Global ending stocks for 2010-11 are projected at 94.6 million tons, down 3.0 million from last month, but up slightly from 2009-10. Stocks are lowered for China, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Iran, and raised for the United States.
Tagged with agricultural supply and demand, Australia, Belarus, Canada, China, drought, EU, European Union, export, feed, flood, Germany, grain, Hungary, import, Indonesia, Iran, Kazakhstan, livestock, Morocco, Nigeria, Pakistan, poultry, rice, Romania, Russia, trade, Urals, USA, USDA, Vietnam, Volga, WASDE, wheat


text:
Pose (FX, 2018) is an American dance drama television series created by Ryan Murphy, Brad Falchuk, and Steven Canals. Set in the 1980s, the show explores the juxtaposition of several segments of life and society in New York: the rise of the luxury Trump-era universe, the downtown social and literary scene, and the ball culture world. ... more on Wikipedia
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Ever have one of those days when things get so overwhelming you try to grab hold of something just to stay afloat but everything you touch just repels you with annoyance and disgust, and you realise you're just going to have to deal with drowning on your own?
Or one of those days when everything you try to do just goes wrong and when everything you try to say just sounds wrong and everything you think just seems wrong and everything you are is just wrong and people actually agree?
How about one of those days when you know just like every new day that the next day is going to start, but you really don't feel like being around when it does?
How do you pick yourself up from that kind of day?
I try to eat, because I haven't had dinner anyway, but movie theatre fast food doesn't exactly look like the caring, kind best friend that's going to tell you, "It's okay, Winston. Just put me in your mouth and chew and everything will be fine, I promise." My chicken bites were too salty and my hot dog looked like my… day.
We go grocery shopping, and I think, hey, retail therapy, right? But then my wife asks me to pick out some grapes and I go to the chilled fruits aisle and see two boxes of those fantastic Californian moondrop grapes and I pick them up and they're wrinkly and leaky at the bottom because they've been left on the shelf about 3 days too long and I almost start to cry.
I tell the wife I need to take a walk after we get home from dinner, just to clear my head. She suggests bringing the kids' bubble blowers. So I do, but it gets depressing because the bubbles would burst. And I stop blowing because I feel like I've been breathing life into them just to see them die.
I decide to just take that walk then, but then it starts to rain, and much as I would have liked the soft rain caressing my face, masking the tears in my eyes as I walk slowly through the night in comforting cold solitude, my son just recovered from a fever and my daughter is still nursing a cough and the last thing my wife needs is another big baby falling sick on her and then a bad 2 weeks at work won't be the only thing I need to worry about.
So I go to my car, open the windows, whip out my phone, open my WordPress app and I write this.
Halfway through, the rain stops. I step out of the car, because it's getting damn hot.
Just like every new day, tomorrow is going to start, and I have no choice but to be around when it does.
… And then the WordPress app fails to upload the post and I have to log in via my web browser and copy-paste everything and re-paragraph the whole thing.
Nope, didn't feel better. Guess it's just one of those days.
Wandered in here to take a short break from changing hundreds of en-dashes to hyphens. My pick-me-up suggestion (which may likely backfire): Take 7 hours to listen to S.Town?
How do you wander into blogs??? And I wasn't expecting anyone to read this, either, since I didn't share it,LOL!


text:
Artim History, Family Crest & Coats of Arms
Early Origins of the Artim family
The surname Artim was first found in the county of Berwickshire, where Ayton is a small town "which takes its name from the water of Eye, on the banks of which it is situated, is intimately connected with important transactions of early times. It was formerly dependent on the monastery of Coldingham, as appears from charters belonging to that establishment, upon the settlement of which, between the years 1098 and 1107, under the auspices of King Edgar, that monarch made them several grants, including "Eytun" and "aliam Eytun," the latter being Nether Ayton, on the opposite side of the river." [1]
One of the first records of the name was William de Eytone who rendered homage to King Edward I in 1296. [2]
Early History of the Artim family
This web page shows only a small excerpt of our Artim research. Another 252 words (18 lines of text) covering the years 1170, 1296, 1440, 1672, 1440, 1887, 1570, 1638, 1460, 1488, 1488, 1513 and 1644 are included under the topic Early Artim History in all our PDF Extended History products and printed products wherever possible.
Artim Spelling Variations
The name, Artim, occurred in many references, and from time to time, it was spelt Aiton, Ayton, Aytoun and others.
Early Notables of the Artim family (pre 1700)
Notable amongst the family name during their early history was Sir Robert Ayton or Aytoun (1570-1638), English poet, who was also a private secretary to the queens of James I and Charles I. He "was a descendant of the Norman house of De Vescy, lords of Sprouston in Northumberland. Gilbert de Vescy, a younger son of the family, settled in Scotland in the reign of King Robert Bruce, having received from him the lands of Aytoun in Berwickshire. Thereupon he changed his name to that of his estate. " "In Berwickshire the Aytouns continued as landowners until James III (1460-1488), when...
Another 108 words (8 lines of text) are included under the topic Early Artim Notables in all our PDF Extended History products and printed products wherever possible.
Artim migration to the United States +
The New World beckoned settlers from the Scottish-English borders. They sailed aboard the armada of sailing ships known as the "White Sails" which plied the stormy Atlantic. Some called them, less romantically, the "coffin ships." Among the early settlers bearing the Artim surname who came to North America were:
Artim Settlers in United States in the 19th Century
Hya Artim, aged 19, who arrived in America, in 1894
Janos Artim, aged 25, who arrived in America, in 1895
Anna Artim, aged 17, who arrived in America, in 1895
Artim (English)


text:
What is the Easiest Language?
GermanPolyglot
Posts32Likes38Joined9/5/2022LocationBerlin / DE
Learning Chinese - Mandarin, Dutch, Croatian, Italian, Russian, Spanish
There is a controversy among language enthusiasts: is it possible for a language to be objectively easier than another?
I would argue Yes. The first objection is usually (and it is correct) that for a speaker of Cantonese, Mandarin is easier than English, while for a speaker of German, English is easier than Mandarin. So obviously the comparison needs to be made under the condition that all else is equal: given two languages that are both equally familiar or equally unfamiliar to the person in question, it is possible to say that one is easier than the other.
Take two Slavic languages for example, Russian and Croatian, and assume a learner who has never studied any Slavic language. I believe that in this case, it is possible to say that Russian is objectively harder because its spelling and pronunciation are less straightforward, while both languages feature a similar a relatively complex grammar and rich vocabulary.
The writing system itself need not be a reason to consider a language to be harder than another, provided the spelling is reasonably phonetic. That is, learning "Korean spelled in Latin letters" would take a few hours less than "Korean spelled in the Hangul alphabet", but as long as the writing system can be learned in a few hours (through my Script Hacking books for example), we need to examine whether the pronunciation, grammar and vocabulary are significantly easier than in the other language, so as to offset the extra few hours spent on the writing system.
And this is where it can get tricky. Often there seems to be some kind of balancing, that is, languages that are unable to express as many nuances through morphology (prefixes and suffixes) instead express these nuances through more rigid word order, more rigidity as to how something "has to be said", and a more extensive vocabulary. How does this look concretely?
Grammar vs. word order
Latin word order was extremely free, at the cost of having to memorise tables upon tables of endings that tell you what a word does in the sentence. By contrast, English has next to no endings, but its word order is very rigid. Poetry written in Latin, or in other languages that have a free word order, loses most of its power when translated into English and many people who have experienced poetry in one of these languages will prefer it over poetry in English.
Grammar vs. vocabulary
Another example: many learners of German dread the system of separable and non-separable verb prefixes. It is a part of grammar that is obviously harder than e.g. French grammar. However, there is a cost in vocabulary: learners of French have to learn a lot more word roots because French does not extensively use verb prefixes. Compare:
German: gehen (go), ausgehen (out-go), mitgehen (with-go), vorgehen (front-go), vorbeigehen (past-go), entgehen (de-go), zergehen (dis-go) --> learn only 1 root: gehen
English: go, go out, go along, go ahead, pass, escape, dissolve --> learn 4 roots: go, pass, escape, solve
French: aller , sortir, accompagner, avancer, passer, échapper, fondre --> learn each of the 7 roots
Doing the math
How do you weigh this against each other? I don't think it's possible. People with a very logical brain may prefer the logic of Latin and German systems and learn these more quickly than the randomness of French, while people whose brain is less attuned to tables and patterns may be overwhelmed by Latin and German and find French easier. So even when considering only English speakers with a comparable background in language-learning, it is not clear which of these languages will require the least amount of hours.
Add to that the difference in learning goals and study materials. Latin is generally learned with an emphasis on passive understanding, while you cannot claim to know French unless you know how to read AND speak it. In Latin, you're expected to be able read literature in order to pass the final exam, meaning that your vocabulary has to be quite extensive, while you may be able to pass French class with a much smaller vocabulary as long as you can use it effectively in conversation. The materials are also not comparable. Languages like Russian and German have a huge amount of different materials (textbooks, easy readers, videos, podcasts, apps...) catering to all levels and all study styles, while the selection of Croatian and Danish learning materials is much more limited, meaning that you may not learn at the optimal pace.
The easiest?
I still believe that it is possible to say that e.g. for a monolingual English speaker, the overall difficulty looks roughly like this, from easiest to hardest:
Esperanto < Dutch < German < Russian < Chinese
That is, to describe difficulty in rough strokes. Beyond that, it really depends on personal factors:
Most of us have had at least some language classes at school or even learned one or more languages to a conversational level. That will completely warp the picture of which language is easiest to learn next.
If one of the languages you're considering might be deemed difficult due to comparative lack of materials (say, Javanese), you can mostly ignore that if you live in the area where it's spoken - or if you like to study languages the old-fashioned way and don't depend on Netflix, easy readers etc.
What do you personally find easier to learn: a language with harder grammar, harder vocabulary, harder spelling, or harder pronunciation? This personal aptitude often makes the difference.
The above describes how many hours you'll need to spend on the target language. But you and I know that sometimes an hour feels interminable and sometimes we barely notice it passing. This mainly has to do with motivation. So in the final analysis, whether a language FEELS easy to learn or feels hard also depends on how good your reasons are for learning it. If you need the language to talk to the person you've fallen in love with and you don't have another language in common, that's probably the easiest language you've ever learned.
I offer personal language coaching if you like.
Do you want to crush your language goals? Sign up here.
leosmith
Posts1525Likes1019Joined18/3/2018LocationPattaya / TH
Learning Chinese - Mandarin
Other French, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, Swahili, Tagalog, Thai
Although I have heard that babies, on the average, take about the same amount of time to learn their mother tongue regardless of the language, I agree that, for a given individual, some foreign languages are easier than others. For example, most native English speakers will find Spanish easier than Mandarin.
I also agree that "easier" should mean "less time consuming" here. Although some activities are more "intense" than others, it is hard (impossible?) to measure things like intensity, so using time as the metric makes more sense.
GermanPolyglot wrote:
I don't believe this true in my case, though. Everyone has their own weaknesses when it comes to language learning, so ymmv. But for me, I don't believe grammar is the hardest part overall. If it was, Russian would be my hardest language. But this is my ranking:
Portuguese/Spanish/French/Swahili < Tagalog < Russian/Thai/Korean < Mandarin/Japanese
Notice I'm only using four levels; it's hard for me to say which is easiest within each group. So here is something I noticed for the first time this year – having a different (non Latin-based) script, even if it can be "learned in a few hours", puts a language into the two hardest levels. This is not only true for my personal situation, but also applies to FSI rankings. If the language has a different script, it is automatically placed in cat 4 or 5, the hardest categories.
To be clear, I'm not saying the activity of quickly learning the script in order to start reading is the big time consumer. My theory is that the constant need to use a different script, when you read and perhaps even when you imagine words, slows you down considerably.
Mandarin and Japanese, on the other hand, are in an even higher category because Chinese characters are so incredibly time consuming to learn. I am always baffled when someone claims languages like Korean belong in that category; it makes me think our brains are very different.
Anyway, I guess I just described how I came up with my level 3 and 4. All languages with different scripts are level 3, unless they have Chinese characters, which puts them in level 4. But what about 1 and 2? Well, I think Tagalog is in 2 because it has much harder grammar than the level 1 languages. Tagalog's difficulty is often underrated because native speakers usually speak English very well, and they code switch to English so often. That plus the fact that its grammar resources are so poor make it harder to learn. And that's also why I'm writing a Tagalog grammar now.
I'm reading the Malazan Book of the Fallen.
Amazing, go you for creating a Tagalog grammar!!!
I'm not sure Korean is easier than Mandarin for everyone, because Korean conjugation tables look intimidating and Chinese doesn't have any conjugation. To read most Chinese texts, 3000 characters is enough. When I was intensely studying Chinese characters, I needed approximately 1 minute total (spread over several sessions) to transfer a character into my long-term memory. That would mean 50 hours total for the characters. Even if the true number is double (the first characters take longer to learn), I'm sure there is someone who'd need more than 100 study hours to be able to confidently use Korean conjugations. So yes I agree Chinese should be in the hardest category, but probably there are people whose aptitude is better suited to Chinese than to Korean.
I'm wondering if you just had very bad experiences with foreign alphabets. Russian and Thai writing are not straightforward - it's like saying the Latin alphabet is hard because English spelling is hard, but Spanish spelling makes this alphabet much easier. Try Greek or try Serbian (written in Cyrillic) and you'll probably find that the alphabet is no big deal. These languages would not belong in your category 3.
I'm not sure Korean is easier than Mandarin for everyone, because Korean conjugation tables look intimidating and Chinese doesn't have any conjugation.
Yes, as I said, ymmv. But for me, except for the case of Tagalog, grammar doesn't seem to effect the overall difficulty level of a language.
50 hours total for the characters.
This is an underestimation imo; it's even lower than the number of hours just to complete Heisig. The average learner seems to finish Heisig in about 200 hours, and the method works, but it's only the tip of the iceberg. Most people can expect Chinese characters to contribute at least an additional 1000 hours to the learning of Mandarin and Japanese. I am upper intermediate in both languages. The 1000+ plus hours jibes with my experiences and the experiences of the majority of people who have reached a high level in the languages.
I'm wondering if you just had very bad experiences with foreign alphabets.
I suppose this is possible, but my experiences are compatible with FSI, so I am probably not unusual in that regard.
Russian and Thai writing are not straightforward - it's like saying the Latin alphabet is hard because English spelling is hard, but Spanish spelling makes this alphabet much easier.
Sorry, but I don't follow.
Try Greek or try Serbian (written in Cyrillic) and you'll probably find that the alphabet is no big deal. These languages would not belong in your category 3.
You might be right.
I think Heisig is hugely inefficient for Chinese (not Japanese) imho. He just translated his book without prioritizing those characters that are essential to Chinese and he doesn't even give Pinyin. The majority of Chinese characters are composed of theme+pronunciation, so how can he possibly think that ignoring the pronunciation makes it easier to learn Chinese characters?? I much prefer the Matthews' "Learning Chinese Characters" or McNaughton's "Reading and Writing Chinese Characters". These books are also based on building up understanding of Chinese characters from their components and using mnemonics where necessary, but they are also adapted to Chinese. Of course you need to use Anki with any of these books, otherwise I can easily believe that you need 200+ hours to memorize the characters.
I started learning Chinese in 2003 and for several years I always struggled to go beyond 600-800 because the characters all start to look the same at that point; I was close to giving up. Then I discovered the Heisig/Matthews' method and by combining that with Anki I memorized (for reading comprehension, not handwriting) 2500 additional characters in one non-intensive year. My Anki says I spent about 50 hours total on that deck. I definitely would have noticed if it had taken me 1000 hours because I had a full-time job that year. I'm ready to allow that knowing the first 600 characters was a good foundation and I may have needed more time per character if I had started with those, but still, a multiple of 100 hours to memorize 3000 characters sounds like someone is using a hugely inefficient method.
This knowledge is not purely Anki knowledge either. In addition to learners' materials and bilingual books, I have read 6 monolingual Chinese books written for native speakers (novels and autobiographies) and in 2015 I took a class on Chinese linguistics taught in Chinese, as a final assignment I wrote this essay.
I think Heisig is hugely inefficient for Chinese (not Japanese) imho.
I actually don't recommend it either, but for different reasons. I believe it is not efficient to try to keep any out-of-context wordlist, including and especially Chinese characters, alive in an Anki deck until one actually encounters them in real life, and starts to use them. Instead, I recommend that learners use the Heisig mnemonic method to learn characters as soon as they encounter them.
The thing is, "learning" those 3000 characters using a Hesig-like method is just the tip of the iceberg. One has to learn pronunciation/words too. And after that, every time one reads, writes, perhaps even visualizes the language, those characters slow them down compared to a language without characters. Considering that my personal experience, the experience of most advanced learners I read about and FSI all show that it takes 3 to 4 times as long to learn Mandarin/Japanese as a Cat I language, I think estimating the contribution of the characters at 1000+ hours is reasonable.
Want to learn more? See the other blog posts


If there's one thing, I always insist visitors take part in it's a pampering trip to the thermal baths for their first time in Budapest. Although I love showing my friends bright yellow Szechenyi (seh-chen-yee) in City Park, I suggest opting for the "Wellness" package at Rudas (ru-dash). You'll enjoy a view of the Danube and Gellért Hill from the rooftop tub as well as chill out in the newly renovated pools and saunas. Crowds are few, and it's modern compared to the typical Turkish baths, but certainly peaceful. Szent Lukacs (St. Lucas) is also a great budget option if staying away from the crowds is your thing.
Here's a great article with tips for visiting a thermal bath.
Check out Rudas Baths on TripAdvisor.
Budapest nightlife is crazy, and the famous ruin pubs prove its reputation as party central. The original, Szimpla, is an excellent example of a repurposed building destroyed during the war. It has quirky decor like bathtubs or tires-turned-seating and offers shisha, live music, and fresh markets on Sundays. Other notable and unique venues include Fogasház, Ankert, and Instant, a multi-level club with 26 rooms offering top 40's, electronic, R&B, and reggae to dance the night away. Prefer a hip atmosphere with great beers and chill vibes? Léhűtő (lay-who-tuh) or Élesztő (eh-less-tuh) are top-notch craft beer bars in the centre with hundreds of options on tap or bottled.
I dare say Hungarian cuisine is delicious. I love it all and will always be confident everyone will like at least one of the cuisine's delicious street foods. You'll find booths for chimney cakes on almost every corner for around 1 euro and listed on the dessert menu of every restaurant is palascinta (thin pancakes). If you like strudel, you'll love rétes (reh-tesh) found inside Great Central Market Hall, an incredible fresh market. Or, if you want something more unique and savoury, pick langós (lang-osh), a deep-fried dough topped with sour cream and grated cheese. Just like a fluffy pizza, you can order it at the stand right outside metro station "Arany János". Last but not least, if you want to be like a local, you must eat Túró Rudi, chocolate covered curd cheese!
Here's a great article profiling an Hungarian Food Tour.
City Park and Margaret Island are both excellent green getaways from the bustling city where you can picnic, play frisbee, and rent a bike. But if you're after great views, I recommend taking a hike up Gellért Hill on the Buda side for the ultimate panorama of Pest. Also, consider taking one of the many free walking tours like NEXT City Tour's Free Tour of Budapest if you'd like to learn more about the history and culture of Hungary. It's a perfect overview guided by a local who knows the ins and outs of the city.
Doing your best to speak Hungarian with the locals goes a long way (trust me!).
Well, there you have it, my quick guide to Budapest and what you should consider taking advantage of the next time you visit.
Have anything you'd like to share?


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"One month after my first child was born I started to suffer with depression and anxiety. I spoke to my GP about it and they suggested I use the Steps to Wellbeing Service to receive support.I was receiving Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT) over the phone at first for around seven months as logistically it suited me. I had a bit of anxiety over leaving my kids to attend appointments and I was able to stay at home with them and speak to someone over the phone. Later I had face to face sessions as my mum helped baby sit, the service worked around my childcare needs and even offered for me to bring my youngest in with me if I needed to."
Cognitive Behavioural Therapy is a goal-oriented psychotherapy treatment that takes a hands-on, practical approach to problem-solving. Its goal is to change patterns of thinking or behaviour that are behind people's difficulties, and so change the way they feel.
"Then in January last year my husband had a car accident and passed away in February of that year. I went back to see someone in May to continue my CBT and they recommended that I work with a councellor and that's when I started IAPT therapy."
Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) services provide evidence-based psychological therapies for people with anxiety disorders and depression
"The counselling after my husband died really helped, it was good to have an outsider to speak to that wasn't a friend or family member. I was reluctant to tell family everything I was thinking and feeling as I didn't want to burden them, they were going through the same thing. By speaking to someone else I could get everything out, it felt really good.
"It was reassuring to know that I could speak to Brenda once a week and have that support at the end of the phone as I am unable to see my mum or anyone in lockdown."
Steps to Wellbeing support is available during lockdown via Attend Anywhere video consultations https://www.steps2wellbeing.co.uk/do/digital_therapy_options/.
"Brenda from Steps to Wellbeing has been a huge support and really kind to me. Last week was my last session and she told me that she was proud of me that was really nice. I felt a massive sense of achievement that I am not the same person as when I started receiving support and that's all because of the work we did together.
I would say to any one that might be going through anything such as depression after having a baby or losing a loved one, don't be scared, speak to your GP about how you are feeling and take the support. Once I admitted there was something wrong, it was a weight lifted, there is nothing to be ashamed of."
If you are experiencing feelings of depression or anxiety speak to someone, your GP and health professionals are here to support you.


The Sussex Wasps Mini Golf Club started in 2014 with founding member and captain, Steve Lovell playing out of the Splash Point mini golf course in Worthing. Steve wanted to start his own club as there wasn't anything in the local area.
When Paul Preston made his debut on the BMGA Tour at the 2014 British Masters at Splash Point, Steve wasted no time in asking Paul if he wanted to be a member of the SWMGC. Paul said yes without hesitation and became Vice-Captain. Steve Ragless also joined the Wasps soon after.
Paul then recruited (e.g roped in) his Dad, Harry to play on the tour and he himself has become a Wasps member playing whenever he can.
Following other tour events on the BMGA Tour, the Wasps have gone from strength to strength having some great developing talent from Andy Wilde, Derek Bentall, Ed Pope and the young Chris Hillman. We also have a guest player, Nuno Cunha who appears for the team at the British Club Championships.
The Sussex Wasps are always looking for new members whether they want to play regularly or socially. We all thoroughly recommend playing mini golf to anyone as it is a great social club with no heirs and graces and are all keen and enthusiastic players.
If you want to find out more about mini golf then please contact us here.


Small Post Card of Military Hospital,Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of The Town,Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of The Casemates Barracks,Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of The Rock,Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of Catalan Bay,Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of Signal Station,Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of Southport Gates,Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of The Military Hospital,Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of Town and Moorish Castle,Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of The Rock from the Bay,Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of Casemates Barracks,Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of Assembly Rooms,Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of The Old Moorish Castle,Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of New Military Hospital,Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of View of the Town,Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of Moorish Castle and Town,Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of The Rock from Algeciras,Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of Govenor`s Cottage,Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of South Barracks,Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of Rosia Bay,Gibraltar,K76.
Small Post Card of The Market,Gibraltar,K76.


Anaheim, CA., Winter NAMM Show, Booth 1774, January 24, 2013 – iConnectivity, developer of innovative interfaces for musicians, unveiled iConnectMIDI4+, their flagship next generation MIDI interface for MAC, PC, and iOS.
iConnectMIDI4+ is a multi-host MIDI interface for Mac, PC, and iOS that bridges MIDI and audio between multiple computing devices, instruments, and the network by introducing four new technologies into its design.
The first of these technologies is multi-hosting. iConnectMIDI4+'s multi-hosting capability allows for up to 3 computing devices to share the same interface as well as access and share MIDI resources over its 4 pairs of MIDI DINs and its 60 additional user configurable ports.
As a part of its multi-hosting capabilities iConnectMIDI4+ also features audio pass-through. This technology enables multiple computing devices (Mac, PC, and iOS) to not only pass MIDI data but also act as an audio interface between them, seamlessly bridging each computing device into each other's audio and MIDI environments.
iConnectMIDI4+ also accommodates for USB MIDI devices such as controllers, synthesizers, drum machines, etc. that have USB ports by including a USB host port that supports, via powered hub, up to 8 USB MIDI synths, drum machines, controllers, etc.
Furthering its connectivity iConnectMIDI4+ also has an Ethernet port. Users can connect iConnectMIDI4+ to a wireless router, Ethernet hub/router, or any Ethernet enabled device via its dedicated Ethernet port. It is network discoverable, allowing for musicians to control any of the devices connected to iConnectMIDI4+ over a network connection via MIDI.
Controlling its expanded connectivity iConnectMIDI4+ includes iConnectivity's Port Manager software for Mac, PC, and iOS allowing the user complete control over how MIDI is routed, remapped and filtered to and from all devices connected to it, eliminating the need for additional interfaces, extra cables, signal degradation, analog to digital conversion, and added complexity.
The features of iConnectMIDI4+ are patent pending.
iConnectivity develops innovative interfaces that enable musicians to interconnect the latest in mobile and desktop computing as well as legacy and vintage equipment into live and studio environments.


It is not a problem if you are not native English speaker because there is grammar corrector online to help you with your problem. If you are dealing with too much stress in checking for the mistakes of your paper, no need to worry now because grammar corrector helps you.
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There are grammar checkers that covers everything from misused of words up to grammar checking. They also provide suggestions on how you correct them. There are fast service and user friendly service that is available to you.
There is free grammar corrector on the internet and this is a great opportunity to check your mistakes. All the issues will be checked and corrected. It is suggested that you use an online grammar service rather than downloadable service.
Having online correctors in your side helps you with your assignment. It helps you to get rid of stress and helps you to submit your paper on time. Their help gives you the chance to have a high grade that you never expect to get. Online, there are free correctors that truly help you. The checkers will be the one to identify for your grammatical mistakes.
If before you need to spend one or two hours checking your paper, you no longer need to wait long hours for your paper to be corrected when you will use grammar correctors. If you want to learn English in an easy way, try the tool. There is nothing wrong if you want to aim for perfect score or high grade. If you want to make impossible to possible, then don't hesitate in having free online grammar corrector at your side.


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Jessica Jubb
HOME | Jessica Jubb
Jessica Jubb is an Australian born visual artist. She has spent the past two years undertaking a creative residency in the West Kimberley town of Fitzroy Crossing working with remote artists. She now resides in her home town of Perth. Jessica is an honours graduate (first class) of Edith Cowan University, Western Australia, where she studied Visual Arts and Psychology. She is currently undertaking her PhD.
Hovea. Mount Olive Studios, Hovea, W.A.
JJHQ. Exhibition Launch of JJHQ Studio Gallery. ARTSOURCE, Midland, W.A.
Collected Threads. Distracted Gallery, Leederville, W.A.
Lost & Found. Distracted Gallery, Leederville, W.A.
Saves Nine. Current works, website launch and Distracted Gallery Launch, Lederville, W.A.
Gifted. Mundaring Arts Centre, Mundaring, W.A.
Assemblage. Main Gallery, Ellenbrook, W.A.
Est. Mundaring Arts Centre, Mundaring, W.A.
Contemporary Wearables '11. National Jewellery Touring Exhibition, Australia.
Infest. Gallery Central, Perth, W.A.
Signs of Change. FORM Gallery, Perth, W.A
De-Cadence, University of Queensland Gallery, Toowoomba, Q.L.D.
Illicit Makers. FORM Gallery, Perth, W.A.
Link Group Jewellers. Jam Factory, Adelaide, S.A.
Link Group Jewellers, Heathcote Gallery, Heathcote, W.A.
Spring. Linton Gallery, Perth, W.A.
Pieces of Eight. FORM Gallery, Perth, W.A.
Final Fling. Distracted Gallery, Leederville, W.A.
Gifted. Linton Gallery, Perth, W.A
Wululan Maya. Spectrum Project Space, Perth, W.A.
Beyond the Brick IV. Mundaring Arts Centre Gallery, Mundaring, W.A.
Deck the Walls. Distracted Gallery, Leederville, W.A.
Guildford Annual Art Show. Guildford, W.A.
Desk the Walls. Distracted Art Gallery, Leederville, W.A.
Eastern Hills Artists. MAC Gallery, Mundaring, W.A.
Beyond the Brick. MAC Gallery, Mundaring, W.A.
Sustainable Living Festival, Royal Exhibition Centre, Melbourne, V.I.C.
Hatched National Graduate Exhibition. PICA, Perth, W.A.
Mangkaja Arts Resource Agency
Contemporary Jewellery Workshops
Marninwantikura Women's Resource Centre Studio
Wiluna Art Centre, Remote Residency and Workshops, Wiluna, W.A.
Midland Atelier. FORM, Artist Jeweller. 2010/2011, Midland, W.A.
W.A. Representative, Design Island Bay of Fires Residency, Tasmania.
Jewellery, Sculpture, Photography
Jessica Jubb's explores the creative disciplines of contemporary jewellery and public sculpture. Her artwork reflects her interest in native flora and fauna, complex natural systems and the interconnectedness of all things. Inspiration is taken daily from the the natural bush-lands surrounding her home.
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THE NEXT ROUND OF ARRESTS?
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Travis Head gets the nod as Australia confirm XI for first Ashes Test
AgenciesPublished December 6, 2021
BRISBANE: England captain Joe Root (L) and his Australian counterpart Pat Cummins pose with the Ashes trophy at the Gabba on Sunday.—AP
BRISBANE: New Australia captain Pat Cummins has confirmed batsman Travis Head and fast bowler Mitchell Starc will play in the first Ashes Test.
Cummins said that Head is set to be picked ahead of Usman Khawaja in this week's first Ashes Test at the Gabba, while the early call on left-arm quick Mitchell Starc, as a new ball bowler, means the hosts have now settled on a line-up well ahead of Wednesday's toss.
"It was a tight one, the selectors make the call, but both are really good options, with really strong form," said Cummins at a pre-Series media event with both team captains on Sunday.
Head was dropped after the Boxing Day Test against India last year, and Cummins said the way he has responded gave him a narrow edge over the veteran Khawaja.
"Experience is great from Uzzie [Khawaja] and were really lucky to have that in the squad. But Travis been playing a lot for us the last couple of years, and he's gone away and churned out runs over in England and here in Australia and we feel like he's really ready to go."
Cummins said he was leaning towards allowing Starc — who held his place in Australia's bowling quartet ahead of Jhye Richardson and Michael Neser — to join Josh Hazelwood as the new ball pairing in Brisbane.
"No [I haven't decided] is the honest answer; I probably wont [open] first-up, but we've been quite fluid in recent years, pending the situation," Cummins said. "Maybe [I will if it's] late in the day and with only a couple of overs to bowl and I feel I want to have a crack.
"Starcy's great .. we knew we had three weeks building up and he's been building up nicely, he was fast [in training on Saturday], swinging the ball big," Cummins said.
England captain Joe Root was less forthcoming about England's lineup.
Root admitted he is yet to settle on his side and whether he would select an all-out pace attack at the pace-friendly Gabba and leave out spinner Jack Leach.
We've got all the options on the table just now and we're not going to name the team just yet," Root said.
We can spend hours and hours talking about Australia but ultimately we have to prepare ourselves as best we can and look after our own thing and make sure with the preparation we've had we get the most out of the next few days."
Root will be looking to become the first captain to lead England to victory in Australia since Mike Gatting in 1986-87.
The Yorkshireman's side shared a 2-2 draw with the Australians in England two-and-a-half years ago and Root is hoping to go one better this time around.
If you look at how hard it has been for English captains and English teams over the years, [winning in Australia] is something that doesn't happen very often, so of course it will define my captaincy," he said.
I'm not naive enough to think that it won't. But it's a great opportunity. I'm very excited about it and can't wait for the series to get going."
Preparations for both teams have been affected by the ongoing pandemic, but Root is confident his team will be ready when the first ball is bowled.
We've planned extremely well for this series, we've given ourselves the best chance in many ways and we've made the most of the little preparations that we have had until now," he said. It's important we can continue that over the next couple of days."
Published in Dawn, December 6th, 2021
No split loyalties for England-born Ashes hopeful Josh Inglis
BT Sport drops Michael Vaughan from Ashes coverage as BBC leaves door ajar
Alex Carey 'given nod' as Australia keeper but rain ruins Ashes build-up
Let there be light, hope, aspiration, dedication, faith, unity, discipline and true sportsman and sportswoman spirit at the end of the day.
Where is Usman Khawaja of Australian cricket team?
LHC allows proceedings of Meesha Shafi's defamation suit against Ali Zafar
Passage of Harassment of Women at Workplace (Amendment) Bill is a welcome and historic development


It often becomes impossible to find office furniture that suits your reception area needs. This round end table by HPFI is the perfect choice. Adorned with a clear glass top and tapering legs, this reception area furniture is a must have when it comes to creating an aesthetically pleasing and comfortable space for your visitors.


I attend the 32nd Annual Southeast Street Rod Nationals on Saturday April 6, 2019. The event was hosted by the National Street Rod Association at the State Fair Grounds in Tampa, Florida. The car show included vehicles 30 years and older and also had a area for a swap meet. Included in the car show were classics, hot rods, street rods, rat rods, and custom vehicles. There seem to be over 400 vehicles on display. The weather was great with party cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 80's. For additional information, visit my web site at: teemack.net These photos are copyrighted and owned by TeeMack Photography. Any reproduction, modification, publication, transmission, transfers, or exploitation of any of the content, for personal or commercial use, whether in whole or in part, without written permission from TeeMack photography and is protected by U.S. Copyright Laws. All rights reserved.
I attend the 32nd Annual Southeast Street Rod Nationals on Saturday April 6, 2019. The event was hosted by the National Street Rod Association at the State Fair Grounds in Tampa, Florida. The car show included vehicles 30 years and older and also had a area for a swap meet. Included in the car show were classics, hot rods, street rods, rat rods, and custom vehicles. There seem to be over 400 vehicles on display. The weather was great with party cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 80's.


Love - Review for Number 4™ L'eau de Mare Hydrating Shampoo - 25 oz.
I've love this so much. But will not buy here since it's less the 1/2 on Amazon. And no shipping costs to me since its prime. Lower your prices Birchbox.
Number 4™ L'eau de Mare Hydrating Shampoo - 25 oz.


Music is important in our family.
Before any vows were exchanged or eggs fertilized, Cort and I had music.
Even before any kisses were shared or hands were held, we had music.
All the way back in high school we went to our first concerts. Mine was Aerosmith. Cort can't remember his.
Many, MANY of our concert experiences overlapped.
Back before mp3's and concert downloads, he and I and our friends would kill a whole Saturday afternoon in pursuit of that elusive Pearl Jam concert that we KNEW was on bootleg somewhere, but hadn't seen it yet. And yes, we were fully prepared to drop $50 or more on that burned disc with the crappy album "art"…because we didn't know what burned discs were yet.
I remember lying on the floor at my friends house with all of us on couches and chairs and the floor with the newest album, concert, rarities album that someone found pumping through the speakers. No one saying a word. Just listening and absorbing.
I've often joked that I could turn this blog into one where I write every post based on lyrics or rhythms from songs.
When I first found out I was pregnant in 2007, I was scared and nervous and unprepared.
But as it sunk in, I had a feeling it was a girl (I have no idea why) and I slowly began to plan how she would be my little Punk Rocker.
As I blasted my music in my car, I wondered if she, even so very small, could feel or hear it.
And when that pregnancy ended, I turned to music to express my feelings. To feel my feelings.
When I was pregnant with Eddie, I knew that his whole first year would be rock star themed.
Rockin' in the free world.
And much to mine and Cort's delight, this kid has loved music since day one.
I'm not just bragging or exaggerating when I say he had rhythm far before most kids have a sense of a beat. He was very small when Cort noticed that when he was bumping rap in his truck, Eddie was nodding along on the beat.
The kid danced to commercials and kid shows alike, moving up and down to the rhythm and clapping his hands along with the music.
He could do the hot dog dance the same time he learned to stand on his own.
And now? He hears a song twice and he has the words (that he can understand) memorized and a head bop to go with it.
We have to be seriously aware of what we play in the car these days because Eddie picks up on all of it.
I mentioned last week that I cannot stand to listen to kid music. Even though we have satellite radio complete with kid-friendly stations, I won't do it. I just can't.
And besides, Eddie loves "Brass Monkey" and "Poker Face".
That's my boy, yo. THAT'S MY BOY!
Recently I made a "Eddie Friendly Rock Mix" for the car since it's hard for me to find appropriate stuff in the car since none of the channels I listen to bleep the bad words.
One of the songs I put on the mix that Eddie has fallen right in love with is "Clint Eastwood" by Gorilaz. He calls it his sunshine song.
If you know this song, you know it's super catchy.
It also says the "f" word 3 times.
Oops. I forgot about that when I put it on there. But I like to think we sing other words loudly enough over the f words to make up for it.
Today he discovered "Stacy's Mom" by Fountains of Wayne.
As he was falling asleep tonight he was singing, "Stacy mom got going on," on repeat.
I think my job is done here.
A side note…did you all ever see that movie Almost Famous?
I'm convinced I will be the mom dropping Eddie off at a concert someday yelling, "DON'T DO DRUGS!" out of the car window.