At DumpsterZone, we strive to bring you the best service at the best price available. We have a wide selection of dumpster sizes in stock in Ridgely, TN, with flexible & timley pickup and delivery. Give us a call today for all your dumpster rental and roll off needs.
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ROBOSPECT, driven by the tunnel inspection industry, adapts and integrates recent research results in intelligent control in robotics, computer vision tailored with semisupervised and active continuous learning and sensing, in an innovative, integrated, robotic system that automatically scans the intrados for potential defects on the surface and detects and measures radial deformation in the cross-section, distance between parallel cracks, cracks and open joints that impact tunnel stability, with mm accuracies. This permits, in one pass, both the inspection and structural assessment of tunnels. Intelligent control and robotics tools are interwoven to set an automatic robotic arm manipulation and an autonomous vehicle navigation so as to minimize humans' interaction. This way, the structural condition and safety of a tunnel is assessed automatically, reliably and speedily.


Contemporary Northern Fine Art Paintings by Laura Culic. Toronto and Maynooth, Canada.
The Bancroft Studio Tour is over but I'm busy in the studio as always. Black Spruce Art Works gallery's autumn hours are Friday thru Monday, 10 to 5. I am also open by appointment or by chance. Usually if I'm here working (most of the time!) my gallery and studio are open to visitors.
September: New work for Bancroft Studio Tour!


text:
83-year-old dies after 3-vehicle-crash on SH-31 in Smith County
SMITH COUNTY, Texas (KETK) – An 83-year-old man died after a three-vehicle crash in Smith County on SH-31.
On Wednesday, Nov. 24, DPS Troopers responded to a three-vehicle fatal crash on SH-31 about nine miles east of Tyler in Smith County.
Beloved Lufkin Chamber of Commerce employee dies in crash on Loop 287
The crash happened around 12:35 p.m. and investigators determined that the driver of a 2011 Chevrolet HHR was driving south on CR-21 coming up on SH-31. The driver, 27-year-old Thomas Coleman of Overton, failed to yield the right of way at a stop sign when they drove onto SH-31, according to DPS.
The Chevrolet was hit by a 2020 Toyota Yaris driving westbound on SH-31. The impact of the wreck caused the Toyota to go into oncoming traffic where its was hit by an eastbound 2009 Ford F-250.
13-year-old shot after argument over scooter, witnesses say
The driver of the Toyota was identified as Philip Marsh, 83, of Tyler. Marsh was pronounced dead at the scene by Judge Shamburger and was taken to Lighthouse Mortuary in Tyler.
The driver of the Ford was identified as 32-year-old James Holman, of Sanger. Holman was treated and released at the scene.
Coleman was taken to a local hospital in Tyler in stable condition.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Anyone who has read this blog knows I'm a huge fan of comic books. As part of this Advent Calendar, and inspired by the In the Mouth of Dorkness podcast, I want to share 5 (A Fistful Of...) comic book covers that are either iconic, in general, or special to me, personally. So, here's the first collection. Enjoy.
Charles Vess doing "black costume" Spider-Man...come on.
This cover, by Mike Zeck, is so iconic. Got me to pick up this issue and I stayed with the book for a few years.
My favorite superhero artist, George Pérez, drawing my favorite superhero, in what many would define as the Flash's finest moment. This was the book---when I read the description of its contents in the Mile High catalog [Flash dies?!?]---that introduced me to Pérez. I never looked back.
The first comic book I remember, specifically, buying because of the cover art. John Byrne was "The Man" in the 80s, my golden age of comics, and this was the book that reintroduced the Flash. I had no idea who Darkseid was, but this image was so compelling, I had to find out what was going on.


Bournemouth announced on Monday that they have offered free coach travel to supporters travelling to Old Trafford for Tuesday's rearranged final Premier League game against Manchester United.
The match was called off on Sunday following the discovery of a suspect device, which turned out to be a fake bomb left in the stadium by mistake after a terror training exercise.
United have offered a refund to all fans who were in attendance and a free ticket for the rescheduled game and Bournemouth have followed suit by meeting the cost of the 500-mile (805-kilometre) round trip.
"AFC Bournemouth will offer supporters free coach travel to the Cherries' rearranged fixture against Manchester United on Tuesday, May 17," Bournemouth said in a statement.


text:
Armin Görtz est un footballeur allemand né le  à Dortmund. Il évolue au poste de milieu de terrain.

Carrière
 1981-1983 : Eintracht Francfort
 1982-1983 : FSV Francfort
 1983-1984 : KSK Beveren
 1984-1986 : KSV Waregem
 1986-1990 : FC Cologne
 1990-1993 : Hertha BSC Berlin

Palmarès
 2 sélections et 0 but en équipe d'Allemagne lors de l'année 1988
 Médaille de bronze aux Jeux olympiques d'été de 1988 avec l'Allemagne
 Vice-Champion d'Allemagne en 1989 et 1990 avec le FC Cologne

Notes et références

Liens externes

Footballeur international allemand
Joueur de l'Eintracht Francfort
Joueur du KSK Beveren
Joueur du KSV Waregem
Joueur du FC Cologne
Joueur du Hertha Berlin
Footballeur aux Jeux olympiques d'été de 1988
Médaillé de bronze olympique ouest-allemand
Naissance en août 1959
Naissance à Dortmund

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


text:
Singapore museum adds an interactive virtual forest
Panoramic greenery
Image: victoria ho/mashable
By Victoria Ho 2016-12-09 10:03:45 -0800
This is one unusual forest that visitors aren't likely to forget soon.
At the National Museum of Singapore, a new permanent exhibit will come alive as more people fill the room.
SEE ALSO: Flying an X-Wing in virtual reality is absurdly cool
Housed in a three-story deep circular structure, visitors enter at the top floor into a dark room with a panoramic full-ceiling projection of falling petals.
Pushing a curtain aside, they're then invited to walk down a 144-meter (472 ft) spiral pathway. The walls along it show vivid laser-projected animals running through a forest.
The landscape designers, Japanese digital art collective teamLab, were inspired by Southeast Asia's ecology, says Angelita Teo, the museum's director.
TeamLab has also tried to extend the interactivity of the forest via an augmented reality app, called "Story of the Forest."
Riding on the popularity of Pokémon Go, the app encourages users to find and collect animals by pointing at the critters as they appear in the digital mural to "capture" them.
Finally, visitors are led down to the lower chamber, where they enter a room with an interactive forest that rains petals on them and sprouts new trees as they approach.
Sensors on the floor detect when there are people near and the foliage thickens as crowds gather.
The concept connects the idea of community with nature, explain teamLab's founder, Toshiyuki Inoko.
He added that the entire installation is the most challenging that the team has executed.
The Japanese art and technology collective recently put up a 3,000-square-meter (32,291-square-foot) kaleidoscopic show of color and light within a dome in Tokyo. The "universe" was created with rows and rows of LED lights whose color and intensity changed in response to people walking through the space.
The virtual forest exhibit is at the Glass Rotunda at the National Museum of Singapore. You can download "Story of the Forest" for iPhone and Android ahead of your visit.
BONUS: This art installation is bringing the northern lights to cities all over the world
Topics: Augmented Reality, singapore national museum, teamlab, Travel, Travel & Leisure, World


text:
Nov. 4 COVID-19 cases
The City School District of Albany was notified Thursday of four new confirmed cases of COVID-19.
The first case is associated with the senior class at Albany High School. This individual was last in the building Oct. 22. The Albany County Health Department has identified no additional contacts.
Another case is associated with third grade at Montessori Magnet School. This individual was last in the building Oct. 28. The health department has identified no additional contacts.
The third case is associated with fourth grade at Thomas O'Brien Academy of Science and Technology (TOAST). The individual was last in the building Nov. 3. The health department has identified 20 contacts, three of whom are not required to quarantine because they are fully vaccinated. As a result of this case, the affected fourth-grade classroom will shift to distance learning until Nov. 15.
Thursday's final case is associated with sixth grade at William S. Hackett Middle School. This individual was last in the building Nov. 4. The health department has identified 15 additional contacts.


Effective maintenance will increase the life span of your organ. We have employees with wide experience of tuning and maintaining all sorts of instruments. You receive a free-of-charge Quick Scan in which any particular problems are analysed and a clear-cut maintenance advice is given, enabling you to make your own decision on work required.
The first option is a tuning session. We tune according to traditional, well-tried procedures, without electronic aids. The pitch of each pipe is checked in relation to another one in order to achieve maximum stability. The pipes stay in tune longer and therefore have a longer life span.
A second option is to undertake extensive maintenance. This includes thorough cleaning, repairs to the action, winding and pipes, and, where necessary, equalisation of the voicing. All this is carried out with respect for the instrument and its builder. Such major maintenance will give new life to your organ and many more years of enjoyment.


My overall take-away from this book is that Armada is a fun read. It was a fun page-turner and I'm glad I read it, but I don't think it's for everyone.
The main thing this boils down to is that Ernest Cline's first novel, Ready Player One, was better. It's more accessible and it's much more unpredictable (in a good way). Armada was completely predictable all the way through. I still had fun reading it, but it didn't have any surprises for me.
If any of those apply to you then there is something in Armada that will appeal to you.
But in all honesty, if you haven't read either of these books I would definitely suggest picking up Ready Player One. It's fantastic and feels much more accessible than Armada. I think it's much easier to relate to the references and events in Ready Player One. In my opinion it's the better book.


text:
Q: TreeSets and abstract classes? Design an abstract class called "Vehicle" which has members:
String color, Double speed, String nickname
and an abstract method:
public abstract double getNumberOfWheels();
Design concrete classes "Sedan", "Motorcycle", and "Truck" as subclasses of "Vehicle"
Create objects of Sedan, Motorcycle, and Truck, and output the following information*
 The type of the vehicle
 The color of the vehicle
 The nickname of the vehicle
In the order of
 Speed
 Color
 Number of Wheels
For example, if you create:
(1) Sedan object: nickname "wind" color "white" speed 100
(2) Motorcycle object: nickname "flash" color "black" speed 120
(3) Truck object: nickname "grandma" color "yellow" speed 88
I am a little confused on how to code the contrite classes. How exactly do I execute the output of these classes?
Here is my complete vehicle class:
public abstract class Vehicle {
   String color;
   double speed;
   String nickname;

public Vehicle(String color, double speed, String nickname)
{

}

public String getColor() {
    return color;
}
public void setColor(String color) {
    this.color = color;
}
public double getSpeed() {
return speed;
}
public void setSpeed(double speed) {
    this.speed = speed;
}

public String getNickname() {
return nickname;
}
public void setNickname(String nickname) {
this.nickname = nickname;
}

public abstract double getNumberOfWheels();

 }

Here's sedan:
public class Sedan extends Vehicle {

public Sedan(String color, double speed, String nickname) {
    super(color, speed, nickname);

}

Do I have to make another string for type? and How do I get it to return those outputs? I am a little confused on the outputs.

A: First of all you need to change your vehicle class to define correct constructor:
public abstract class Vehicle {
   String color;
   double speed;
   String nickname;

  public Vehicle(String color, double speed, String nickname)
  {
      this.color = color;
      this.speed = speed;
      this.nickname = nickname;
  }
  .....
}

Now you can define a concrete class as:
public class Sedan extends Vehicle {
    private double numOfWheels = 4.0;

    public double getNumberOfWheels()
    {
        return numOfWheels;
    }

    public Sedan(String color, double speed, String nickname) {
        super(color, speed, nickname);
    }

    public Sedan(String color, double speed, String nickname, double numOfWheels) {
        this.numOfWheels = numOfWheels;
        super(color, speed, nickname);
    }

    public String toString() {
        StringBuffer buff = new StringBuffer();
        return buff.append("Nickname = ").append(nickname).append(" color = ").append(color)
               .append(" speed = ").append(speed).append(" Num of Wheels = ")
               .append(numOfWheels).toString();
    }
}

And now the code for testing:
public class TestVehicle {
    public static void main(String[] args) {
        Sedan vehicle1 = new Sedan("red", 120.0, "XUV");
        Sedan vehicle2 = new Sedan("white", 160.0, "Safari", 6.0);
        System.out.println(vehicle1); // This will call toString method of Sedan class.
        System.out.println(vehicle2); // This will call toString method of Sedan class.
    }
}

A: The value of properties you can get using methods of the base abstract class - they all available for each subclass. Also you need to implement
public double getNumberOfWheels()
{
    // TODO: implementation of subclass
}

method for each subclass that is extends Vehicle class.
Please see link below, I think it would be helpful:
http://docs.oracle.com/javase/tutorial/java/IandI/subclasses.html

A: Your Sedan class inherited all of Vehicle's methods that have already implemented(i.e none abstract methods in this case), except for getNumberOfWheels();.  Your Vehicle class expects you to write a getNumberOfWheels() method in your Sedan Class. Then you can make a Sedan object!
Here is an example of what you could do to receive output.
public Sedan(String color, double speed, String nickname) {
    super(color, speed, nickname);

public double getNumberOfWheels(){
     return 4;
}

public static void main(String[] args){
  Sedan BMW = new Sedan("Black",34,"idk");
  System.out.println(BMW.getNumberOfWheels());
  System.out.println(BMW.getSpeed());
}
}

A: If you declare a abstract method, which means you needs to give its details in the child class.
public class Sedan extends Vehicle {
    double numOfWheels = 4.0;

    public double getNumberOfWheels()
    {
        return numOfWheels;
    }

    public Sedan(String color, double speed, String nickname) {
        super(color, speed, nickname);
    }
}

To use these objects, you need a main() to create and use these objects.
public class UseVehicle {
    public static void main(String[] args) {
        Sedan car1 = new Sedan("white", 100, "wind");

        System.out.printf("car1: (%s, %d, %s) \n",
        car1.getColor(), car1.getSpeed(), car1.getNickname());
    }
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


The Great Barrier Reef is at risk from factors in and out of the water. Dr Christian Roth discusses what needs to change, and how, to save our reef.
Cattle, cane, cropping, coral. That's the balance the Queensland ecosystem has to strike to help reduce sediment and improve Great Barrier Reef health.
The Great Barrier Reef is one of the world's iconic ecosystems, but how important is it to Australians? Very, new surveys reveal.
Today's energy systems will not be sufficient in 2050, and remote Australian communities are likely to bear the brunt. Scenarios workshops held in Alice Springs are helping design energy solutions for the future.
New technology fitted into an aeroplane and flown over parts of the Great Barrier Reef will provide a more detailed survey of coral reef health than ever before and give a boost to global reef science.
Tasmania's bushfires have hurt not only the state's forests, but also the honey industry that depends on access to the region's unique trees.
Ocean acidification will hurt some parts of the Great Barrier Reef more than others.


How Long Before People Realize Aston Villa's Manager Isn't Very Good At All?
Added to this shocking statistic is the fact that if you take both O'Neill's and O'Leary's records after 56 games, O'Leary was doing better than the Ulsterman!
Is this simply to do with the nice bloke image that O'Neill has cultivated with the media. Whereas journos regard Allardyce as a flat cap long ball merchant they all seem to see O'Neill as a messiah – how long before O'Neill is exposed?


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text:
Sir Reginald William Taylor, CMG (1 December 1895 – 19 October 1971), known informally as Rex Taylor, was a British civil engineer and civil servant who worked in several British colonies.

Early life and education
Reginald William Taylor was born on 1 December 1895 to John Edward Taylor and his wife Mary Houldsworth, née Alexander. He attended St Lawrence College in Ramsgate before studying at University College London, graduating with a Bachelor of Science degree.

Career
After serving in France during the First World War, he began working for the Public Works Department in the Uganda Protectorate in 1921. He moved to the equivalent department in Colonial Nigeria in 1938, and became Director of Public Works in that colony from 1947 to 1951, when he became Director of Public Works in the Colony and Protectorate of Kenya. In 1954, he became Engineer-in-Chief to the Crown Agents for Overseas Governments and Administrations, before retiring in 1961. His publications included Aerodrome Construction (1945) and Nigerian Highways (1951).

Taylor was appointed a Companion of the Order of St Michael and St George in 1951 and a Knight Bachelor seven years later. He died on 19 October 1971, survived by his wife, Ruth du Boulay, daughter of Dr W. J. Tyson, FRCP, FRCS. They had two sons, including the academic Jonathan Taylor. Sir George Seel wrote in an obituary of Taylor in The Times that he was "a widely experienced and talented civil engineer".

References

1895 births
1971 deaths
British civil engineers
Knights Bachelor
Companions of the Order of St Michael and St George


Calvin Klein Platinum bring streamlined silhouettes for the Spring/Summer 2016 season, and heads outdoors for the campaign.
Luxe materials in a colour palette of red, white and black is season in the images, and models Sung Jin Park, Hyunji Shin and Yuan Bo Chao are lensed by Harley Weir.
The models are shot in an intense backdrop of fiery red flames, and show off linear printed dresses, peplum tops, culottes, long skirts, wrap tops and more.


text:
China Promises Fast Response As Donald Trump Prepares Tariffs
China vowed to strike back quickly if the United States hurts its interests, hours before Donald Trump was due to unveil revisions to a tariff list.
World | Reuters | Updated: June 15, 2018 15:17 IST
Trump has made up his mind to impose "pretty significant" tariffs, officials say. (File)
Beijing: China vowed on Friday to strike back quickly if the United States hurts its interests, hours before U.S. President Donald Trump was due to unveil revisions to a tariff list targeting $50 billion worth of Chinese goods.
Washington and Beijing appeared increasingly to be headed toward a trade war after several rounds of negotiations failed to resolve U.S. complaints over Chinese industrial policy, market access and a $375 billion trade gap.
"If the United States takes unilateral, protectionist measures, harming China's interests, we will quickly react and take necessary steps to resolutely protect our fair, legitimate rights," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a regular daily news briefing.
Trump was due to give details later on Friday of a revised list of 800 product categories, down from 1,300, according to an administration official and an industry source familiar with the list.
Trump has made up his mind to impose "pretty significant" tariffs on Chinese goods, another administration official said on Thursday.
It remained unclear when Trump would impose the tariffs, if he decides to do so. Several industry lobbyists told Reuters they expected the move to come as early as Friday, with publication of a Federal Register notice, or it could be put off until next week.
Washington has also completed a second list of possible tariffs on another $100 billion in Chinese goods, in the expectation that China will respond to the initial U.S. tariff list in kind, sources told Reuters.
China has published its own list of threatened tariffs on $50 billion in U.S. goods, including soybeans, aircraft, and autos, and has said it would hit back if Washington followed up with further measures.
Beijing and Washington have held three rounds of high-level talks since early May that have yet to yield a compromise, with Trump unmoved by a Chinese offer to buy an additional $70 billion worth of U.S. farm and energy products and other goods, people familiar with the matter have said.
"The threshold to come to a consensus or a compromise seems high," Tai Hui, chief market strategist for Asia-Pacific at J.P. Morgan Asset Management wrote in a note.
Renewed worries about an escalating trade conflict sent shares in Chinese telecoms gear maker ZTE Corp tumbling on Friday. The company has lost 30 percent of its market value since resuming trade this week.
ZTE last week agreed to pay a $1 billion fine to the U.S. government to end a crippling supplier ban imposed after it broke an agreement to discipline executives who conspired to evade U.S. sanctions on Iran and North Korea.
Trump's revised tariff list may exclude some consumer items from an earlier proposal to focus more on goods related to Beijing's Made in China 2025 program, according to a Eurasia Group report.
Industrial Policy Impasse
The Made in China 2025 initiative is aimed at accelerating China's prowess and narrowing its competitiveness gap with the United States and other industrial powers in key technologies such as robotics and semiconductors.
While China has in recent months made incremental market-opening reforms in industries for which critics in the foreign business community say they were already planned, it has shown no inclination to yield on its core industrial policies.
"U.S.-China trade tensions will be long-lasting," said Yifan Hu, regional chief investment officer and chief China economist at UBS Wealth Management told a briefing in Beijing.
"The trade skirmish is not just about the trade deficit and exchange rates, but about the rules of the game, market openness and intellectual property. It is also about values, governance and geopolitical disagreements," she said.
© Thomson Reuters 2018
We Were Down, Slowly Coming Back Up: Twitter Chief Executive Jack Dorsey
Congresswomen Helping Fuel Rise Of Militant Hard Left, Says Donald Trump
Trump "Walked The Talk" In Keeping Pressure On Pak: Indian Envoy To US
US House Of Representatives Sets Aside Trump Impeachment Resolution
ChinaDonald TrumpTariffs


text:
'use strict';

describe('functional-permissions-lib', function() {
	const mod = require('../index.js');

	it('should contain permissions and utils', function() {
		expect(mod).toEqual({
			permissions: jasmine.any(Object),
			util: jasmine.any(Object)
		});
	});

	it('should check hasAccessTo correctly', function() {
		let access  = mod.util.hasAccessTo(mod.permissions.superadmin, [-1, 5]);
		expect(access).toBe(true);

		//upper bound of first bucket
		access = mod.util.hasAccessTo(mod.permissions.cms.task.read, [-1, 5]);
		expect(access).toBe(true);

		//lower bound of first bucket
		access = mod.util.hasAccessTo(mod.permissions.cms.task.update, [-1, 5]);
		expect(access).toBe(true);

		access = mod.util.hasAccessTo(mod.permissions.discovery.watchlist.read, [-1, 5]);
		expect(access).toBe(false);
	});
});

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


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text:
Q: Which object the function nth access to when applied to functional argument in Common Lisp? I have some problem using accessor function nth. I pass a list to some function and make new binding to an element of the list in the function with nth, then when I call the list out of the function, it is modified, and it's not what I want! What happens?
Some examples
(defun test (x) (incf x)) => TEST
(setq a 1) => 1
(test a) => 2
a => 1

I understand what's going on above, but if we change everything to lists, something happens that I can't understand
(defun test (x) (incf (nth 0 x))) => TEST
(setq a '(1)) => (1)
(test a) => 2
a => (2)

I expected a to be (1), why it has been modified? I also tried other functions like car and first, result is the same.
PS, I tried it in Lispworks and SBCL, same result.

A: (defun test (x) (incf x)) => TEST
(setq a 1) => 1
(test a) => 2
a => 1

You pass 1 to test. Within test you modified the local variable x. a is not changed and can't be changed that way - we pass the value of a not a reference to a.
(defun test (x) (incf (nth 0 x))) => TEST
(setq a '(1)) => (1)
(test a) => 2
a => (2)

You pass the list (1) to test. The list is not copied. The local variable x points to the first cons cell in the list. You then modify the car of the first cons cell to 2. Since the list is not copied, you modify the passed list. a also points to the first cons cell of that list. So it is also (2).

A: If you don't want anything to be modified, don't use incf. Use 1+. The only reason to use incf is because you want its side-effect.
As to why this is happening, arguments are evaluated before being passed to a function. When you call test with a being 1, you are passing the value 1, which cannot be modified. When a resolves to a list, you are passing a list, which can be setf'd all over the shop, if you've chosen to use destructive functions.

A: See the documentation on nth.  nth returns a place that setq can then operate on.

nth may be used to specify a place to setf. Specifically,
  (setf (nth n list) new-object) ==  (setf (car (nthcdr n list)) new-object)


text:
← Bless. They really believe they're globally important figures
"We have a list" →
Statistical proof of election fraud in the US
Posted on 1:36 am, November 7, 2020 by Steve Kates
Picked this up in a comments thread at Powerline here. Commenter vbmoneyspender whose comment is around fifty down if you start with the list set at "Best". You can also find Benford's Law discussed at Wikipedia. This was the comment, slightly edited:
For people who are wondering how it is possible to tell when vote counting is fraudulent here is one way. Using Benford's law, one can tell whether the distribution of numbers from, for example, precinct candidate vote-total reports are random or fraudulent in nature. The way Benford's law works is you take a bunch of numbers, for example deposit amounts that a business has recorded over the course of year, and for each of those amounts you record the first digit of the deposit.
So if a deposit on a particular day was in the amount of $1,234.56, you would record the '1'. You then do that for every other number in your dataset and Benford's law holds that if the deposit amounts are truly random, the number '1' will be most common, followed by '2' and then '3' and so on with '9' being the least likely.
You'll then be able to plot this on a graph so there is a sloping curve to the dataset. On the other hand, if the dataset has fraudulent numbers, you'll end up with weird results like the number '4' being most common or the number '8'.
The IRS uses this mathematical law to detect fraud in tax returns and/or the supporting documents that are filed with them, as well as by accounting firms that are auditing their clients' books and records.
Take a gander below at what Biden's vote counts look like in Chicago and Milwaukee and Allegheny, PA. I think the results speak for themselves, but suffice it to say, all the candidates vote counts look normal except for Biden's:
Of course, even beyond these stats, which is truly astounding, there is this: If No Fraud Is Happening, Why Not Let the Trump Campaign Watch the Counting? It's Rush Limbaugh:
RUSH: So think about this. We, meaning Trump, Trump has to litigate, he has to go to court to get Republican observers to watch the count. We have to go to court. We have to ask a bunch of judges, "Judges, we need to really observe what's going on in there. We're entitled to observe this count. You make them. You make them let us in."
Okay. So why are the Democrats in Philadelphia fighting it? I mean, if there's no cheating going on, if everything's aboveboard and if Trump's gonna lose and he's gonna lose legitimately and you just better get your arms around it, why not let the Republicans in and let them see Trump losing legitimately? Why are they afraid of this?
What is more incredible is who is in this fight and who's not. The integrity of an election you would think would matter, really matter, to everyone and especially on the Republican side. This is a pivotal moment in the West. You would think more people would care.
There is also this which is worth a read: A Matter of Probabilities.
This entry was posted in American politics, Politics of the Left. Bookmark the permalink.
127 Responses to Statistical proof of election fraud in the US
tombell
#3648798, posted on November 7, 2020 at 1:54 am
they don't care because they're in on the fix..
If No Fraud Is Happening, Why Not Let the Trump Campaign Watch the Counting?
In Australia, scrutineers have the right to observe the counting of ballot papers, and preventing the is grounds for appeal to the court of disputed returns.
What is the law in the US in this regard?
Sam Duncan
It's worth pointing out that this exact method is, in fact, used to detect electoral fraud around the world. The first time I ever read about Benford's law was in an article about elections in Russia. This is very strong evidence, far more so than anecdotal reports, that something fishy is going on.
Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, whose state is a key battleground in the presidential election, called the president's claim of fraud "very disturbing."
"There's simply no evidence anyone has shown me of any widespread corruption or fraud," Toomey told "CBS This Morning."
"The president's speech last night was very disturbing to me because he made very, very serious allegations without any evidence to support it," said Toomey.
He added: "I voted for President Trump. I endorsed President Trump. I want the next president to be the person who legitimately wins the Electoral College and I will accept whoever that is."
Some never Trumper I guess.
notafan
Did they do same plotting in all the states?
Tezza
I see the Wikipedia entry notes:
" Benford's law has been invoked as evidence of fraud in the 2009 Iranian elections,[34] and also used to analyze other election results. However, other experts consider Benford's law problematical or misleading as a statistical indicator of election fraud.[35]"
So, I'd call this promising, but requiring more exploration.
Sorry but this is not how Benfords law works.
Benfords law applies to phenomena where a value increases exponentially, such that each time it grows more time is spent at the lower number as it flips up to the next order of magnitude.
It's doesn't work in this situation since the rate of counting decreased when they got to the mail in ballots.
That's right Boris, Toomey is a loon just like you.
Was it Stalin who said something like "It is not the votes that count, it is who counts the votes that matters"?
Remember this from 1980.
The lottery draw (The Daily Number) was compromised and came up with the number 666. So you can cheat live on TV and it took the betting patterns to find that a scam had been perpetrated.
https://www.pennlive.com/life/2020/04/convicted-bookie-helped-uncover-triple-six-fix-pa-lottery-scandal-40-years-ago.html
Note: It was Pennsylvania.
Burt Rutan agrees. He knows a bit about what is real and what is fake. Fake aeroplanes crash.
Election was 'clear fraud' – Burt Rutan (5 Nov)
I use a Benford test all the time to help detect what needs to be audited in assistance programs. I am not sure it would work all that well in vote counts. Maybe all this suggests is that Democrat voters tend to be more closely living together in particular districts.
Rabbi Putin
I have a strange sense of amusement about this. A Biden/Harris clown show is going to be such a disaster that it's going to embarrass all involved, make sure the lefties in your life truly "own" a Biden/Harris regime. It's going to be a disaster for us and the world, let the lefties know they own it and this is them and this is what they wanted.
Meanwhile, note that Trump didnt drag his feet this last four years, and with good reason as it's now clear to see: Out of TTP and NAFTA, shredded Iran deal, tax cuts, Jerusalem, the Chinese trade war, 3 Supreme Court judges, a bunch of district judges, the wall under construction, the end of the black/Latino Democrat vote-bloc, the clawing back of culture, the widespread discrediting of lying MSM. And the Reupliblicans hold the Senate.
If the Dems think that a stolen Biden win will erase the last 4 years they're kidding themselves. If they try then they will win no friends and make a lot of enemies internationally. Leftists cheering this circus on are going to look really stupid. And on top of that the Left have never looked so much like the side of pampered sooky white elites, with a modern SS in the form of Antifa who actively commit violence and intimidation against their critics. This is a time to point and laugh at them, because they're exposed to the world and history as the violent lying hypocritical thugs that they are. 🙂
flyingduk
I think it is pretty clear, to anyone who has been following the 'raw sources' rather than the mainstream media narrative, that fraud has occurred. The next question is – will the electoral/legal system be able to remedy it?
My suspicion is not, and also that the combined efforts of 'big media' to successfully frame this as nothing more than a republican tantrum will be accepted as well. That for me is the most chilling takeaway point, even more than the prospect of (at least) 4 years of Democrat rule. The globalists/leftists appear to have successfully pulled off a coup in the last bastion of freedom, and this was done in plain sight yet the public, for the most part, will fall for the narrative.
What comes next? They arent even trying to hide it anymore. Expect the whole socialist agenda to be rolled out faster than you could ever imagine now.
Steve trickler
It hasn't even escaped young Koreans' attention
That assumes
1) The public actually realise said administration is a disaster – and we have just seen how the MSM and social media can successfully control the public mood by information management
2) The 'Biden' Administration doesn't introduce electoral system changes that make it even easier to game the vote next time.
Sadly, I think the Donald somehow pulling this out of the fire via the legal process is the only hope for the future, and only then provided he also introduces electoral reforms which prevent this ever happening again. I am a great student of military and political history – this is how Hitler (and indeed all dictators) come to power – via 'legal' election at first, then they change the system to retain it.
the combined efforts of 'big media' to successfully frame this as nothing more than a republican tantrum will be accepted as well.
Our Cth Broadcasting Corporation is certainly spinning it that way.
Nothing to see here!
A Biden/Harris clown show is going to be such a disaster
Aunty already has Oz Economists commenting on Biden's envisaged diplomatic policy towards China: only a slight softening of Trump's policy!
Senate and ACB spoil the Dems party?
Something else to contemplate
" Almost 100,000 people who voted for Joe Biden could not be bothered to vote down below.
Compare that with only 2,000 for the Trump down ballot. https://t.co/plGAlXoOSM
— Rising serpent 🇺🇸 (@rising_serpent) November 6, 2020 "
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/11/06/while-we-wait-for-new-ballot-boxes-to-be-stuffed/
mareeS
Australia has a very transparent electoral process, and as a previous scrutineer at our local polling booth, we keep one another honest, because we know where the likely cheats are.
This USA election process is 3rd world standard, Tammany Hall with boots on.
Dems in 1850 passed the Fugitive Slave Act. Lincoln was elected. Dems lost the war.
Dan Rather lost out to pjmedia. Trump could start TNN.
Biden reading SOTU? Enough popcorn?
Ellen of Tasmania
The BBC and ABC were calling it 'Trump's unsubstantiated claims' – which made us wonder why these super-duper-well-paid journalists didn't go out and do a bit of investigative journalism to find out just how unsubstantiated they were.
Then we saw this by Martin Armstrong (https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/mainstream-media-told-not-allowed-to-investigate-voter-fraud/):
"I was just told by a journalist in one of the top 3 newspapers that they were just told NO STORIES of any voter fraud. This is pretty much confirming that indeed this election was stolen and the mainstream media will not publish or investigate anything that would undermine Biden."
Of course this, too, is 'unsubstantiated', but it might explain the complete lack of interest in investigating the claims.
I'm completely unimpressed with us electoral process, election officials wearing Democratic merchandise, caps and shirts to work.
Not even pretending to be neutral.
I read a thread on vote curing where the computer could not scan the ballot. Apparently rewriting is legal.
Again absolutely not if the voter can't make it clear and legible, bin it, there is just too much handling and time wasting in the US.
Mail in ballots should be deployed armed forces and nobody else.
50 states make their own rules.
Some states might make new rules after Dems losses.
Not all Dems elected in many states.
Australia has a very transparent electoral process,
So far as it goes. I mean, we've got no real choice about who governs us. But the process by which we are forced to accept the latest Uniparty regime is well-administered.
Yep, the usually only slightly Left of centre 5AA in Adelaide reported this morning that Trumps claims of election fraud were 'baseless' … not 'unsubstantiated' … baseless.
Winter is coming – guns, gold n bitcoin.
Bank deposits don't increase exponentially over time … you could get a random mix of big, small and medium deposits throughout the day.
Maybe you are thinking that the random numbers should fall roughly along an exponential distribution … meaning that the big deposits are more unlikely. This would not work for whole electorates in Australia where they are carefully constructed such that each electorate is about the same size as the others. It probably would work for polling stations which include a mix of popular and unpopular locations.
Itty bitty little stories like a US Mail employee caught with 3 undelivered votes, just to give it an air of realism.
A Daniel Andrews lackey had to resign this year over branch-stacking. And just the Daniel Andrews vibe in general, if you have lived 6 years under this man you can't say there isn't some overar Coing sense in the air that dodginess is going on in the electoral process and every other theatre of public life.
We get preferential voting and so can vote for a minor-party candidate without punishing whoever we feel is the less-evil major party. If the Australian public weren't so dim-witted and parochial toward the majors then we could actually apply some decent leverage within our system. Sadly we also have compulsory voting, so the brainwashed morons are mandated to come out on Election Day and weaken the vote of the people who actually give a crap about where the country is going.
The Help America Vote Act of 2002 (Pub.L. 107–252), or HAVA, is a United States federal law which passed in the House 357-48 and 92-2 in the Senate[1] and was signed into law by President Bush on October 29, 2002.[2] The bill was drafted (at least in part) in reaction to the controversy surrounding the 2000 U.S. presidential election, when almost two million ballots were disqualified because they registered multiple votes or none when run through vote-counting machines.[3]
The goals of HAVA are:[4]
– replace punchcard and lever-based voting systems;
– create the Election Assistance Commission to assist in the administration of federal elections; and
– establish minimum election administration standards.
Tel is right. I don't think this is an accurate description of the mechanism which produces the Benford distribution.
vote curing
Probably a great vehicle for Electoral fraud – along with dead voters.
Our political duopoly set the rules governing the electoral system. It serves its twin purpose of cloaking them in legitimacy, and erecting barriers to entry to maintain their hegemony.
Wasn't Trump prompted to run due to 'empty chair' Obama?
What would Putin make of Sleepy Joe anywhere near the big Red Button?
I've had a closer look at the blockchain patent and it is specifically for mail in voters. Did they roll it out for this election?
I am a great student of military and political history – this is how Hitler (and indeed all dictators) come to power – via 'legal' election at first, then they change the system to retain it.
Agreed flyingduk. Heard a long time ago that Hitler vowed to use the "democratic" process to gain power as he was not gaining too much traction with his other methods, then pervert it. Now where have I heard that before "When we get into power we will change everything" or words to that effect.
Recently saw a docco on Winston Churchill saying that at Chartwill (his long time home) he meticulously documented the Nazi pre WW2 armaments industry, but was unable to convince anyone else until it was too late.
Hitler reoccupies the Rhineland, violating the Treaty of Versailles
I have also seen a report that Hitler actually was surprised that no one contested his move into the demilitarized zone in the Rheinland, and he also made the comment that if UK or France had objected then he would have withdrawn. He was emboldened by having no opposition.
Another docco on Churchill said that the only advisor he trusted during the WW2 was General Jan Smuts who was a Boer general when Churchill was captured by the Boers – Churchill being at the time a war correspondent. So Smuts was the enemy of the UK during the Boer War but a friend and advisor during WW2.
Jan Christiaan Smuts, OM (24 May 1870 – 11 September 1950) was a prominent South African and Commonwealth statesman and military leader. He served as a Boer General during the Boer War, a British General during the First World War and was appointed Field Marshal during the Second World War.
Their association continued in World War I, when Lloyd George appointed Smuts, in 1917, to the war cabinet in which Churchill served as Munitions Minister. … Smuts is the only man who has any influence with the PM; indeed, he is the only ally I have in pressing counsels of common sense on the PM.
https://www.npr.org/2017/09/26/544447697/how-the-boer-war-helped-winston-churchill-become-the-hero-of-the-empire
Unfortunately I see similarities between the pre War 2 and the current dangerous situation – our democracy is an illusion. Rather have direct democracy à la Switzerland as closer to the democracy ideal. The people have the power, not just the people at the top
Biden is too compromised by the allegations of family taking money from China, and Kamala's understanding of world affairs leave too much to be desired.
Without a doubt the election was fraudulent. Anyone with an IQ over 70 knows this election was stolen.
Have a good read of this article, it's very insightful.
https://monsterhunternation.com/2020/11/05/the-2020-election-fuckery-is-afoot/
Infidel Tiger
Robby Starbuck
@robbystarbuck
One Michigan county clerk caught a glitch in tabulation software so they hand counted votes and found the glitch caused 6,000 votes to go to Biden + Democrats that were meant for Trump and Republicans. 47 MI counties used this software. All must check now!
https://mobile.twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1324783531139235841
Seems significant.
It depends on the State. One of the States where it is specifically forbidden by law is Pennsylvania, where as many as 100,000 may have been 'cured' or corrected because the voter was too stupid (or in too much of a hurry) follow the procedures properly… like not signing it.
Sadly we also have compulsory voting, so the brainwashed morons are mandated to come out on Election Day and weaken the vote of the people who actually give a crap about where the country is going.
Also the party gets money for every vote that it gets. So the system is never likely to change to non compulsory voting.
Tony Blair also made a remark about poor turnouts to elections in the UK, to the effect that the politicians need to get their act together as people are disinterested in politics and so if the turnout is too low the government cannot really claim legitimacy. And I agree, if you don't care who gets in, why should you have to vote. But then follow the money as mentioned above explains a lot to me. Also a statement made under duress is not AFAIK is not allowed in a court of law. Some people consider compulsory voting a form of duress.
as many as 100,000 may have been 'cured' or corrected because the voter was too stupid (or in too much of a hurry) follow the procedures properly… like not signing it.
Absentee ballots include an affidavit that must be signed by the voter under penalty of perjury. Upon receipt, the signature on the affidavit is compared to the signature on the voter's registration form. The vote is counted only if the affidavit is found sufficient.
Baa Humbug
#3649038, posted on November 7, 2020 at 10:03 am
The reason why a jurisdiction like Michigan can dump 100,000+ votes in the middle of the night is because in the USA, nobody knows how many people turned out to vote.
In Australia, at no time and at no place can any significant numbers of ballots be "dumped" by crooked election workers or postal workers. It just can't happen.
Rabbi Putin,, at least we know here in Oz who the cheats tend to be. Lots of cynical voters out here in the real world stick with economics rather than ideology front and centre to apply our votes.
Baa Humbug, +++
When I was a kid the movie musical L'il Abner (1956) would show up on tv periodically. As a kid, I never understood that line in the song The country's in the very best of hands when Marryin' Sam sings:
Dem bones, dem bones gonna
gonna exercise the fran
-chise again
(And I also understand the movie would now be cancelled for language like "dem bones")
nobody knows how many people turned out to vote.
As long as you blast out ballots via the mail system along with 3rd class junk mailers about tyre sales or $5 off pizza coupons you will never have any idea how many you are going to get back.
But you can guarantee that a huge percentage of them will be fraudulent.
This is true. I have worked at polling places as a clerk over the years. People who say that ballots are filled in/pencil is erased and changed at the polling place are clueless.
There is no time for this type of thing to happen, scrutineers watch and can see if this is happening.
Because many voters have no idea how preferential voting works they don't use it. They don't understand that they can choose their own preferences – it is time this was taught in high school.
WolfmanOz
That's an excellent analysis, but the problem is in actually proving the fraud to the general populace, in that your average Joe in the street is simply not willing to take it in unless it is in a 10 second sound bit.
Still there's going to enough hardcore Trump supporters (say 40-45%+) who are going to rage on about the illegitimacy of Biden's presidency.
After the shenanigans after 2016 where the Democrats refused to accept the result, we are going to see it all over again in 2020 but this time there will actually be a case for it.
Dr Faustus
Perhaps I'm just being dim, but it's not clear what "Leading Digit" means in these plots.
Fairly critical to understanding whether Benford applies.
First digit of the number (in this case, of votes).
Nighthawk the Elder
They don't understand that they can choose their own preferences – it is time this was taught in high school.
It was taught when I went to school over 40 years ago. In fact I was first introduced to it in Primary School as our very intelligent teacher (they were back then) gave us a detailed breakdown of the dismissal in 1975, the subsequent election and how voting works and votes are counted in both houses. She used these not only in the old social science subject, she also used it to teach percentages in our maths lessons. Really smart lady and well regarded.
WolfmanOz at 10:53 am
The statistics are deeply improbable. However the real hurdle will be pulling sufficient legal proof of malfeasance out of thousands of individual possible fraud events – some of which will benefit Trump – to cause a court to intervene.
I expect the apparent result will be allowed to stand because of the technical and legal difficulties in proving 'definitively who', rather than 'statistically possible whether' – and the US polity will be weakened accordingly.
It was taught when I went to school over 40 years ago
It was taught when I was in High School, fifty years ago.
It has been suggested that the bulk drops were a result of public servants being instructed to vote and votes being sent in bulk lots. Is this feasible? It sounds a bit iffy to me.
Yes, I understand the maths.
But what basis for the dataset? In each case there appears to be a few thousand data – so, my question is what quantity does the first digit represent?
Dr Faustus 11:16
"expect the apparent result will be allowed to stand because of the technical and legal difficulties in proving 'definitively who', rather than 'statistically possible whether'…"
I think this is now the standard given that credible accusations of election fraud over many years has hardly ever led to any investigations let alone convictions. Any accusation fails for the lack of evidence because firstly, its not something that is done with the aim of it being caught out, so it requires a forensic approach to discovery that no-one seems to have the will, time and resources to devote, even with such high stakes. I guess, having not done anything about this since the "hanging chad" era, no-one will start now because it would prove the corruption of American democracy beyond talk and rumour, and talk of bringing "democracy" to China or Venezuela et al would be shown to be the manipulative hot-air that it always was.
However the real hurdle will be pulling sufficient legal proof of malfeasance out of thousands of individual possible fraud events
If you were trying to track down individual fraudsters yes. But when the fraud event is the election authorities of states directly violating state law regarding handling and counting of ballots it's much easier.
No Court, no judge, no minister, no chief of voting etc. can make those changes, only the legislature can, and they didn't.
The cure? ALL ballots not handled in accordance with the law get thrown out.
Next major problem? The reason the Reps wanted counting stopped immediately is that once the envelopes containing the ballots are opened they are often discarded, so no date/time proof. Which is why the Dems did it anyway.
#3649217, posted on November 7, 2020 at 12:08 pm
Here are some stats.
The Wisconsin 4AM vote dump was 98.4% for Biden. That sound reasonable to anyone?
How about a Pennsylvania dump of 28,000 votes that was 100% for Biden?
Amazingly, the only places those devastating ratios were found during this election were in the midnight ballot dumps in known battleground states with decent amounts of electoral college votes.
Things that should make you go hmmmmm.
my question is what quantity does the first digit represent?
Exactly what I'm wondering. It's batch quantities of votes? But what size batches etc? It would be good to learn more detail about how this analysis works with ballot numbers.
Rob MW
If Obama was the left's god then criminally corrupt Biden is the left's god of gods, so far he has beaten Obama's popular vote by 4,000,000 (mil) votes. Poor ole' hag-bag the criminally corrupt Hilderbeast doesn't even rate.
What a corrupt fucking show the most powerful nation on Earth has turned out to be, they'd even rig a fucking chook raffle if it meant securing socialist globalism as the normal function of the West.
I've got a feeling in my waters that this is going to end badly.
Further to my cautionary comment at 7.02 about the power of Benford's law applied to voting, here is a thoughtful analysis of how well it works:
Deckert, Joseph, et al. "Benford's Law and the Detection of Election Fraud." Political Analysis, vol. 19, no. 3, 2011, pp. 245–268. JSTOR, http://www.jstor.org/stable/23011436. Accessed 7 Nov. 2020.
The key take-out is
"Benford's Law is problematical at best as a forensic tool when applied to elections. Looking at simulations designed to model both fair and fraudulent contests as well as data drawn from elections we know, on the basis of other investigations, were either permeated by fraud or unlikely to have experienced any measurable malfeasance, we find that conformity with and deviations from Benford's Law follow no pattern. It is not simply that the Law occasionally judges a fraudulent election fair or a fair election fraudulent. Its "success rate" either way is essentially equivalent to a toss of a coin, thereby rendering it problematical at best as a forensic tool and wholly misleading at worst."
LBLoveday
Apart from the well-published rorts such as voting multiple times and, or, under another's name – one can go to a polling booth at opening time, give one's neighbour's name and address and vote under his name, with or without his knowledge, before he arrives; one can go to each polling booth in one's electorate, voting at each, up to 60, under one's name, one's neighbour's, or someone else's, provided one is prepared to answer "no" to the inane question "Have you voted elsewhere today?" – and enrolling under multiple names prior to the 16 April 2007 requirement to provide ID on enrollment, the events in the 1980 Norwood, SA, by-election made me determined to not take part in such a corrupt system no matter what the cost.
The Norwood, SA, 1979 state election result (won by Frank Webster, Liberal) was overturned by a court decision, and a by-election held 16/2/1980. In the few months between the general election and the by-election, the Norwood electoral roll numbers increased by 10%. The vast majority were not newly turned 18yos, new residents, or people who had omitted to enroll by the previous cut-off date, they were election riggers – people from outside Norwood, typically Left-wing UofA students, who had voted in another electorate in the general election and who changed their enrolled, but not physical, address to vote again.
There were up to 22 people enrolled at the one addres, but the Electoral Commission did nothing. So my neighbour, Greg Crafter, ALP, romped in, and I was shortly after removed from the electoral roll, never to return.
More recently, as reported in "The Advertiser", a SA family claimed to have voted 159 times, including 31 times by a 17 year old, in a recent election. Even the AEC, which in the past has buried its head in the sand conceded it is possible, and if it's possible, it is done, with only the extent being in question.
#3649314, posted on November 7, 2020 at 1:29 pm
LBLoveday… yes its possible to vote more than once in Australia. But for each ballot a name is marked off the roll. The roll is later checked for how many double counts it had (And also how many who didn't vote – to get fined).
If the double count is greater than the deciding margin, the AEC itself disputes the election, and if the judge agrees with their evidence, the law requires the judge to declare it invalid – and the seat gets run again.
The question is…. how many double votes really exist. The AEC don't publish this. Its up to the parties to ask when the margin is close. The reason no one wants to talk about this is that if people know they can get away with it – it will eventually add up and start triggering invalid elections.
Interesting article by one time auditor on the question of statistical improbabilities.
The obvious red flags are the turn-out. Some areas have got higher turnout than Australia gets with mandatory voting.
The problem is that Trump-Pence ballots follow Benford's Law.
The third party candidate ballots follow Benford's Law.
But Biden-Harris ballots do not.
If Benford's Law does not apply to elections then it should not apply to Trump-Pence or to the third parties (and three different third parties at that in Chicago, Allegheny and Milwaukee).
Sidney Powell, Michael Flynn lawyer said on Lou Dobbs Fox Business that they believe the Democrats have used the Hammer and Scorecard software program to reverse votes from Trump to Biden. Montgomery originally developed this software for Intelligence purposes and has been a whistleblower about it. I heard an ex military brass talking about Scorecard just before the election. Look it up. It seems that it may have been used to tank Sanders for Biden plus in other elections.
Leo G
There are other more conventional statistical analyses that can be applied.
Ranged collection district participation rate and the ranged candidate vote share are both discrete random variables. Comparing the frequency distributions for samples of collection districts should be binomial.
Are there abnormalities in the distributions.
Do the outliers in one distribution match the outliers in the other?
Benford's Law can be used in a vast array of situations. You simply need roughly >1,000 whole numbers and to test the relationship against various statistical measures of the significance. In my experience at work, even highly summarized or totaled transaction, statistical and engineering numbers seem to comply with the Law – both first and second digits. Hell, even numbers on a map seem to comply with the law.
Pat Heuvel
Folks, what is the relationship of the votes currently being counted to the electoral college? If one candidate wins here, could he not lose when the electoral college votes are cast?
Fair dinkum question!
Salvatore, Social Distance Martyr
Didn't know for a long time that it had a name. Benford's law works. It is used (in a simplistic version) at my place to track for theft/fraud/error in cash handling & in kitchen management. (principally error is what we're looking for)
It works, to the point where I'm well known (& somewhat unpopular coz of) for the 3am phone call telling someone they've got some recounting & balancing to be done rightaway, coz I know there's an error that can be found.
Rather surprised to learn it can be used to scan for vote fraud. Don't doubt it works, at least to reveal red flags that should trigger deeper investigation.
Astatine Jones
No it's not statistical 'proof' of electoral fraud:
https://www.eipartnership.net/rapid-response/what-the-election-results-dont-tell-us
Yes, see the 2016 election. Clinton won the popular, Trump won the electoral.
The difference this time is that the Dems focused their fraud on states with high numbers of electoral college votes. Does the winner of the state automatically get the electoral college votes? No.
The state legislatures pick the Electors who do the voting in the EC. In the states in question (Arizona, Georgia, Penn, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina) the majority party in the legislature are Republican.
World Champion Boxer Joe Frazier voted for Biden this in Pennsylvania.
But he skipped campaigning for Joe. His excuse? He's been dead since 2011.
Not kidding.
The state legislatures pick the Electors who do the voting in the EC.
Who selects the electors?
Choosing each State's electors is a two-part process. First, the political parties in each State choose slates of potential electors sometime before the general election. Second, during the general election, the voters in each State select their State's electors by casting their ballots.
The first part of the process is controlled by the political parties in each State and varies from State to State. Generally, the parties either nominate slates of potential electors at their State party conventions or they chose them by a vote of the party's central committee. This happens in each State for each party by whatever rules the State party and (sometimes) the national party have for the process. This first part of the process results in each Presidential candidate having their own unique slate of potential electors.
Political parties often choose individuals for the slate to recognize their service and dedication to that political party. They may be State elected officials, State party leaders, or people in the State who have a personal or political affiliation with their party's Presidential candidate.
The second part of the process happens during the general election. When the voters in each State cast votes for the Presidential candidate of their choice they are voting to select their State's electors. The potential electors' names may or may not appear on the ballot below the name of the Presidential candidates, depending on election procedures and ballot formats in each State.
The winning Presidential candidate's slate of potential electors are appointed as the State's electors—except in Nebraska and Maine, which have proportional distribution of the electors. In Nebraska and Maine, the State winner receives two electors and the winner of each congressional district (who may be the same as the overall winner or a different candidate) receives one elector. This system permits Nebraska and Maine to award electors to more than one candidate.
mundi, the application of Benford's Law is not limited to things that grow exponentially.
It applies to anything that is counted, or accumulated. As you count, when you first encounter a number starting with 1, you need to double the count (100% increase) to get out of the 1's. Once you hit a number starting with 9, you only need to increase the count by 11%. Note – this is true, ever after the first number (1) and the first encounter with 9. It has nothing to do with how quickly it grows.
I think this is a clear case of voter fraud but you can't really tell if the Dems were pushing the numbers up or the Reps pushing the numbers down.
As commented by others no one claims that using Benford's Law proves anything and already the Election Integrity Project has 'debunked' the analyses being circulated by creating this straw man and pointing out this fact. It merely highlights anomalies for investigation. Will there be time to do that? Probably not unfortunately unless the other statistical tools mentioned in the comments can be applied.
However as commented the salient point is that the Trump and Independents DO approximate the Benford distribution but Biden's DO NOT. Moreover Biden's DO in Miami-Dade where it was obvious early on that FL with a Republican administration was clearly retained by Trump whereas the DO NOT counties were in Democrat controlled rust belt states.
The winning Presidential candidate's slate of potential electors are appointed as the State's electors
Yep, and who appoints the electors?
I know it's confusing but it is in fact true for a very simple reason, if the legislature doesn't appoint you as an elector you aren't one. If the popular vote is in question the legislature isn't going to appoint you.
In this case, it is extremely well known that the Democrat party cheated its ass off. So what do you think the Republican majority legislature is going to do if pressed for an answer?
US Constituion – Article II, Section 1, Clause 2:
Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.
Benford doesn't really apply to elections (even if people try to use for it). It shows matches in about 50% of the cases, so everybody can pick a sample to demonstrate that it's OK or that it isn't, just as they please. Simply put, Benford applies to different kind of statistical data than election numbers (with some oversimplification, to some naturally occuring, random data sets and elections results are not random data sets). Even Wikipedia has a rather decent description of where it can be used and where not. So, sorry, no, Benford is not a proof at all.
Yes, but most States have now enacted statutes to guarantee to prohibit so-called faithless voting and ensure that the electors vote for the candidate who got the most statewide votes in the presidential election. State legislatures could certainly try this approach, but it would be legally (and politically) problematic.
Yes, but most States have now enacted statutes to guarantee to prohibit so-called faithless voting and ensure that the electors vote for the candidate who got the most statewide votes in the presidential election.
I don't think you are getting my point. If one side is known to have cheated their asses off then you don't have a "candidate who got the most statewide vote".
So if the legislature is forced to make a call, who do you think is going to get it? The party who controls the legislature or the other?
As I pointed out, this leads past the EC issue and into the possibility that the US Congress (the House) is going to have to vote on it. One state – one vote. Who decides who that one vote is for?
And you are right in that SCOTUS recently ruled that states can punish faithless electors.
But without a legitimate popular vote….
Well – if voter fraud is proven, then that would actually change the outcome, no? So the electors would switch to Trump. I thought you were referring to changing based on the current result.
Well – if voter fraud is proven, then that would actually change the outcome, no?
Yes it would, you moron.
Emphasis on 'if'
But…THERE'S NO EVIDENCE! It has been fact checked by the totally-not-Orwellian "BBC Reality Check"!
Great, prepare for an asinine lecture on what if means.
I thought you were referring to changing based on the current result.
I am. There is no current result. And that's the point. IF forced to make a call, the legislatures sure as hell aren't going to support the opposition candidate.
I have no doubt you understand what 'if' mean.
Allegations of fraud have been made. They have not yet been proven. So we can speculate to our hearts content about which way this will play out. But it's just speculation.
Doesn't change the point about how the electoral college system works.
Yeah, I also like kittens and ice cream, you doofus.
I notice they don't actually public the analysis (plots) the argument is based on.. just a whole bunch of 'doesn't prove', 'can possibly get results like this' rah rah.
Statistics doesn't work they way, guys.
Horse before the cart though Zatara.
There is no result now, but there will be. And it will be challenged in court (at least that's what Trump is saying). And at the end of that, there will be a result. Are you then saying that in the case where the courts uphold the result in (say) Arizona, that the legislature will still try and appoint pro-Trump electors?
State legislatures are responsible for electing electors.
I linked to the US Consitution to prove that. You didn't link to where your interpretation of "how it works" came from.
CHIAFALO ET AL. v. WASHINGTON
https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/19pdf/19-465_i425.pdf
There is no result now, but there will be.
Really? When?
Because the Electoral College report is due by 14 Dec. They are then tabulated by Congress in the 1st week of January. If no answer by then a contingent election takes place in Congress as I've already described.
Major Elvis Newton
Stupid, stupid Americans.
You deserve your Venezuelan fate with President Harris.
Enjoy socialism, you stupid fools.
From Utah Code
Title 20A – Election Code
Chapter 13 – Elections to Federal Offices
Part 3 – Presidential Electors
Section 304 – Meeting to ballot — Casting ballot for person not nominated by elector's party.
(3) Any elector who casts an electoral ballot for a person not nominated by the party of which he is an elector, except in the cases of death or felony conviction of a candidate, is considered to have resigned from the office of elector, his vote may not be recorded, and the remaining electors shall appoint another person to fill the vacancy.
A contingent election is different to the electoral college voting.
58.6% for Trump
How is this relevant?
You have to apply the case law to the relevant state legislation.
Held: A State may enforce an elector's pledge to support his party's nominee—and the state voters' choice—for President. Pp. 8–18. (a) Article II, §1 gives the States the authority to appoint electors "in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct." This Court has described that clause as "conveying the broadest power of determination" over who becomes an elector.
How is this relevant to any contested state?
… is about faithless electors. As is your Utah Code cite. A completely different topic.
Where did your #3650185 come from?
Well no shit Sherlock. I give up. Dot's right.
Well no shit. Maybe you can explain what the Congress is next.
I just linked to the first one I could find, but as noted in the the Supreme Court link above, most states have these statutes.
I just linked to the first one I could find
That's not how law works, Matt.
Zatara's original post on this didn't make the distinction it was a discussion on contingent elections, that only came into the discussion later on.
On the issue of state statutes – sure, I could go and link to the 32 that the Supreme Court referenced, but I'm not going to. I'm going to trust them on that one.
Mak Siccar
Over at American Thinker, …..
In 30 states, a computer system known to be defective is tallying votes
By Andrea Widburg
When Kyle Becker heard about the "glitchy" computer program in Antrim County, Michigan, the one that tried to give 6,000 Trump votes to Biden, he started doing research into the system. He ended up finding an amazing amount of highly disturbing information. The Dominion system has been known for some time to be defective, yet 28 states use it. This post is a compilation of Becker's information, both in his own tweets and in one other person's tweet, about what's going on with that system:
What I find most disturbing is the impunity with which Democrats are gaming the system. They're not even trying to cover their tracks. They are 100% certain that there will be no consequences for their actions. They know that the media, which should be a watchdog on behalf of American citizens, is actually an arm of the Democrat party that will do everything necessary to cover for Democrat election …
When Kyle Becker heard about the "glitchy" computer program in Antrim County, Michigan, the one that tried to give 6,000 Trump votes to Biden, he started doing research into the system. He ended up finding an amazing amount of highly disturbing information. The Dominion system has been known for some time to be defective, yet 28 states use it.
/blockquote>
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/11/in_30_states_a_computer_system_known_to_be_defective_is_tallying_votes.html
Some friendly advice Matt
Never say the following in court:
1. "Your honour, it seemed like a good idea at the time".
2. "I just linked/referenced (to) the first one I could find".
3. "I could (produce documentation), but I'm not going to".
Wouldn't dream of it Dot. But last I checked, we're not in court.
You're trying to disprove a statistical argument with US legal precedent, you mong!
I'm not commenting on the statistical argument of voter fraud – I was only responding to Zatara's post re how the electoral college works.
DaveM
@Astatine Jones
"Armchair investigators during the election have already begun to argue that too many of the submitted vote totals begin with larger single digit numbers (7 or 8 for example)"
Incorrect. The test is not necessarily performed on the first digit (nor the last). The example those charts were based on used the second digit.
"Mebane 2nd digit test with Trump vs Biden"
https://theredelephants.com/there-is-undeniable-mathematical-evidence-the-election-is-being-stolen/
From my thinking the law rests on the starter's advantage of early digits when incremental counting is at play. However the distribution of the last digit should become more uniform when the counting increases to large numbers. For large counts we can drop back to the digit which we still expect be bias effected e.g. if counts range from 100-200 should see 11x appear more (but we still need to ask questions about the source of the underlying – what if there was natural clustering in the middle say?)
Austin 3:16 says Trump Lost. Suck it up.
Tailgunner
Excellent,Steve.
I've been busy in the Election Thread.
Benford will save the world.
I'm no maths- talkin guy, but I know Real when I see it.
Trump better give the guy the Presidential Medal or whatever.
#Benfordlyfe
Zatara, although a thoroughly deplorable guy, is The authority around here on US electoral issues.
Debate him at your peril, homies
Matt, you're doing good around here though.
Happy to stick my head up above the parapet every now and then Gunner.
Tom Heller
The problem with this first-digit Benford proof of fraud is that leading digits of 2, 3 ,4, 5, even 6 can be genuine in precincts like in Chicago, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh containing a thousand or more voters. In that case, a high turnout and lopsided vote for one candidate can easily produce 200-, 300-, 400-, 500-, 600-something vote totals. Thus leading digits of 2, 3, 4 , 5, 6 result.
Although Benford type analysis can be quite powerful, one of its CENTRAL assumptions, required before drawing any conclusions, is that every number is as likely to appear in any given spot as any other. When that condition is violated (as with the instance I sketched above), Benford analysis cannot discern non-random patterns.
When that condition is violated
You just assumed that wasn't true.
Yeah I know the law.
A few problems
It isn't actually a law, it's tends to happen but it doesn't have to. So the IRS will use it to identify possible fraud, but your return having more 3s than 1s doesn't mean you committed fraud. You can get sets where the law doesn't fit by pure chance.
It only applies to massively large sets. Some of the vote counts are way to small to see this law in effect
BIdens vote does follow the law in most of the cases. I see only one where it significantly diverges.
This is just grasping at straws.
Michael Rowland says there is no evidence of fraud. Not one shred of evidence apparently. Well that's good enough for me.
Maybe Trump should never have used the word "fraud", as such, but instead "irregularities" might have allowed more folk to come along with him.
I seriously doubt that the irregularities that will be highlighted in the next few weeks will rise to the level which will change the course of the election but to deny the possibility of fraud in a US election is just ridiculous. How many postal service drivers have they got now? Observers at polling booths witnessing inexplicable behaviour? Software glitches?
Once again the media just cannot tread that line between objectivity and cheer leading.
2.5 mn post ballots in PA don't count?
Massively large sets? As in n = 1000, 10,000 or 1,000,000?
William Herold
#3655056, posted on November 11, 2020 at 10:04 am
Benfords Law does not apply when you have known percentages of votes coming out of relatively uniform buckets. Professor Mebane at University of Michigan explains:
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/inapB.pdf
AndresCo
#3657347, posted on November 13, 2020 at 2:57 am
This article has been disproven here:
Pingback: Misconceptions of the 2020 Election - Being Libertarian
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.
Winston Smith on Open Forum: January 16, 2021
Speedbox on Open Forum: January 16, 2021
1735099 on Trump's loss: the treason of the intellectuals


Stop Acting Like This Is a Dress Rehearsal & Heal Your Relationship with Food Now!
Do you find yourself saying you want to change something in your life, but when push comes to shove, you find that you don't really want it badly enough?
This is true of everyone, and it benefits us to be completely honest with ourselves about our priorities and what we're willing to sacrifice. Self-awareness is key, here.
None of us are going to make a change until we really want to.
We're averse to change, as our misery often becomes our standard mode of operation—our comfort zone.
We'd rather dance with the devil we know than the one we don't.
These are all normal human responses to making changes—all born out of our monkey minds/egos, I'd argue.
Said another way, our brains will default to the "easy" road automatically, so we have to make a concerted effort to act from a higher place. To act from a place of consciousness, not fear.
When we make this shift from living in our monkey minds—where our brains are swirling with excuses and projecting fear onto the future—to a more conscious state of awareness, we're able to understand that our fear-based thinking is keeping us small and comfortable.
We begin to make choices based on deeply rooted values, growth, and the possibility of our future selves, and we become keenly aware that this isn't a dress rehearsal. And we can't afford to live our lives as such.
If you're deep in the cycle of yo-yo dieting, neurotic food behaviors, lacking self-trust around food, or excessive exercise, you may or may not realize that life is passing you by.
While it's tempting to stay rooted in these behaviors due to fear of the unknown, I recommend asking yourself if the costs outweigh the benefits (if there still are any).
Is it worth it to continue playing out the same patterns and miss out on experiencing everything life has to offer in this limited time we've been given?
Obsession with food and our bodies isn't something to take lightly, as it can consume our entire being and fill every crevice of our brains.
The stakes are HIGH here.
The patterns you've become accustomed to will always be waiting for you if you decide that a new way isn't worth it.
If you decide that the discomfort of growth and expansion outweighs the misery of your comfort zone.
I know the feeling of wanting to stay wrapped up in my comfort zone all too well, and the reality is that we can't prioritize everything. We aren't going to change the things we don't really want to change.
My only ask is that you consider the gravity of the situation when it comes to giving up so much of your life to controlling food and your body.
This isn't a matter of learning a new hobby or saving for new pair of boots—priorities that can understandably fall to the wayside for more pressing matters, I'd argue.
Our relationship with food is a major part of the foundation on which we live our lives, so we really can't afford to wait.
We can't afford to say "one day" and hope for things to magically feel comfortable enough to finally make a change.
Today is all we have, and I hope this serves as a reminder that we need to act like it (myself included).


text:
A GUIDE TO MANCHESTER'S BEST GIGS & SHOWS
Sound Check // Summer Sounds At The Deaf Institute
Summer is always a busy time on the musical calendar, with frequent visits from international artists making their way between festivals or just out on the road themselves. Looking towards Grosvenor Street venue Deaf Institute, here are five picks we think you'll enjoy over the coming months at one of Manchester's finest venues.
C.W. Stoneking // 26th June
Aussie songsmith C.W. Stoneking has been channelling a bygone era of blues rock for the past two decades, returning to the road last year for a string of intimate solo performances. His current tour sees the "jungle blues" singer-songwriter play an extensive series of dates in the UK and the Netherlands, before heading to the US and his native Australia.
Start To End – Jeff Buckley's Grace // 5th July
Formed from a core group of some of Scotland's leading young musicians, Start To End perform their favourite albums in full, yes, from start to end. Gracing Deaf's stage, the band will be returning to Jeff Buckley's much-loved 1994 classic debut 'Grace', which they previously performed across Scotland in Summer 2017. Fans will not want to miss this group of extremely talented musicians capture the excitement and feel of the late singer-songwriter's magnum opus.
LIINES // 21st July
Powerful post-punk trio LIINES are no strangers to the city, and saw their last show in town quickly upgraded from Gullivers to the higher capacity Night People due to incredible demand for tickets. Most accurately described by The Quietus as "tight-as-you-like snarly pop coated in a holy racket of guitar noise", the local three-piece are still without a major release tucked under their belt, but have found a devoted following with three hotly-received singles, including latest track 'Disappear'.
Hiss Golden Messenger // 27th August
Hailing from North Carolina and led by singer-songwriter MC Taylor, Hiss Golden Messenger has carved out his own role within country rock, adding a fresh take on the genre with bittersweet, soulful arrangements. Last year saw the release of his ninth studio album 'Hallelujah Anyhow', met with wide acclaim and supported with an extensive touring schedule.
Youngblood Brass Band // 13th September
Collective horn blowers Youngblood Brass Band will return to the city once more possessing a signature New Orleans sound and strong punk ethos. The riot jazz/hip-hop ensemble have been thrilling audiences since 1998, now celebrating their 20th anniversary with latest album '20 Years Young'.
Tickets for all listed shows can be purchased here.
Weekly Preview // World Cup Fever, Sibling Songstresses, PiL, Wu-Tang + Club Nights // 11.06-17.06
Competition // Win Two Tickets To See Legendary Electronic Outfit Leftfield At Gorilla
BagThing's Best Albums Of 2020
Isolation Blues #7
Release // Fontaines D.C. – A Hero's Death