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Social Distancing Measures, May 2020
All Latest News /
ESA National Economic Panel Polls
Got an Idea?
Economists back social distancing 34-9 in new Economic Society-Conversation survey
Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Australian economists overwhelmingly back social distancing measures that slow the spread of coronavirus over the alternative of easing restrictions and allowing the spread of the disease to pick up.
But a significant minority, 9 of the 47 leading economists polled in the first of a series of monthly surveys, say they would support an easing of restrictions even if it did allow the spread to accelerate.
The Economic Society of Australia-Conversation monthly poll will build on national polls conducted by the Economic Society, initially in conjunction with Monash University, since 2015.
The economists chosen to take part are Australia's leaders in fields including microeconomics, macroeconomics, economic modelling and public policy. Among them are former and current government advisers and a former and current member of the Reserve Bank board.
Their responses are given weight by statements explaining their views published in full on The Conversation website and by a requirement that they rank the confidence they have in their responses on a scale of 1 to 10.
What matters is R
R, which is also referred to as R0, R₀, and Rt is the reproduction number of the virus. It a measure of the average number of other people that any person with it will directly infect.
The Conversation, CC BY-ND
An R of 2 means that on average each person with the virus will directly infect two other people in a process that will escalate increasingly quickly until after four sets of contacts 16 people have it, and after 20 sets of contacts more than one million people have it.
This snowballing effect is a property of any R above 1.
At an R below 1 the spread decelerates until very few people have it.
In the early days of the outbreaks, Australia's value of R was well above 1.
The lockdowns and other restrictions have helped push it down to about 1.
The 47 leading Australian economists selected by the Economic Society of Australia were asked whether they agreed, disagreed, or strongly agreed or strongly disagreed with this proposition:
The benefits to Australian society of maintaining social distancing measures sufficient to keep R less than 1 for COVID-19 are likely to exceed the costs.
The proposition suggests that in the present context it is likely to be worthwhile to continue to maintain the restrictions that are needed to push R below 1 and keep it there.
Almost three quarters of the economists surveyed – 34 out of 47 – backed the proposition, 23 of them "strongly".
Only nine disagreed, and only one strongly.
The arguments put for the worth of maintaining social distancing measures sufficient to keep R below 1 include avoiding "tens or hundreds of thousands of avoidable deaths" (John Quiggin) and allowing the economy to return to normal sooner than otherwise by escaping the need for "repeated lockdowns" that might be needed if the disease got out of control again (Ian Harper).
Chris Edmond uses the analogy of the Phillips Curve that is meant to show the the tradeoff between levels of inflation and unemployment.
Although it shows a tradeoff in the short term (more inflation results in lower unemployment) in the longer term it finds no such tradeoff. More inflation simply leads to higher prices with unemployment being no lower.
Eradicating the COVID-19 coronavirus is also the best economic strategy
"In a similar way, there is no long-run trade off between public health and the health of the economy in responding to the COVID-19 crisis," he says.
Lifting restrictions "risks the worst of all worlds, compromising our public health goals and at the same time not getting a proper economic recovery".
Stefanie Schurer quotes a German proverb: better a painful ending than an endless pain.
Lifting restrictions "worst of all worlds"
She says a short and medium term failure to eliminate, or at least slow down, the spread of COVID-19 would entail significant longer-run political, economic and social costs.
Renee Fry-McKibbin points out that that even if the deaths from reopening economic activity turn out not to be high, we have no idea yet of the long term health consequences of exposing more people to COVID-19.
"Will people suffer from respiratory issues going forward requiring ongoing medical attention?" she asks. "We have incomplete information on the actual costs and benefits."
Saul Eslake, who can see the worth of continued restrictions that keep R below 1, cautions that the longer they remain in place, the more the case for reopening will grow.
Yet the costs of restrictions are growing
Craig Emerson says keeping R below 1 should be merely a "guiding principle" rather than a binding constraint.
"The longer the restrictions are in place, the greater will be the likelihood of links being broken - leading to severe economic hardship, business failures, mortgage defaults, domestic violence, mental health problems, suicide and long-term unemployment, particularly for the young," he says.
Gigi Foster says, in retrospect, the best thing for Australia to have done would have been to have never had an enforced lockdown, but to have encouraged people to continue to behave as normally as possible while taking precautions, as in Sweden, allowing young and healthy people to acquire immunity in order to protect more vulnerable people, in this and in future waves of the virus.
She suspects the costs of continued restrictions that keep R below 1 outweigh the benefits, including benefits measured in quality-adjusted life years saved.
COVID lockdowns have human costs as well as benefits. It's time to consider both
Hugh Sibley says that by making progress towards eliminating the virus we have eliminated the option of acquiring the mass immunity that would make it easier to live with it.
"We have, in effect, dug ourselves into a hole," he says. "And we are now congratulating ourselves how deep that hole is. Too few people are asking how we get out."
Supporters more certain than opponents
When responses to the survey are weighted by the confidence respondents have in them, opposition to restrictions weakens.
Unweighted for confidence, 19% of respondents oppose the proposition that restrictions that keep R below 1 are likely to be value for money.
Weighted for (lack of) confidence, opposition falls to 15.4%.
Unweighted for confidence, 72.3% support the proposition that restrictions that keep R below 1 are likely to be value for money.
Weighted for confidence, that support grows to 77.1%
The proportion strongly agreeing with the proposition grows from 48.9% to 54.8%
Put another way, when weighted for confidence, a clear majority of the economists surveyed strongly support the proposition that the benefits to society from maintaining social distancing measures sufficient to keep R less than 1 are likely to exceed the costs.
Individual responses
Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Responses (47)
Peter Abelson
I disagree with the statement because it implies that we (Australia) must maintain substantial social distancing measure to keep R<1. It appears to me that going forward we (Australia) can keep R<1 with substantial reductions in the existing social distancing measures (not maintaining present social distancing restrictions as implied by the statement) and thus with relatively low economic costs going forwards. However, this premise is essentially a public health prediction on which economists should take advice from the relevant experts. Consequently, as an economist I put low certainty on this view. I note also that this does not include changes to other restrictions, such as relaxation of international travel restrictions.
Garry Barrett
There are immediate economic costs of strict social distancing measures enacted to limit the spread of COVID-19. Studies of the Spanish Influenza pandemic indicate that cities in the US that moved quickly to strict social distancing (or economic lock-down) measures experienced better health and economic outcomes. There are also important distributional issues to consider - there are policy levers to share the costs of the economic disruption across society and ameliorate the most severe impacts. The health and mortality impacts of allowing R>1 will severely impact the most vulnerable sections of our community.
Harry Bloch
Based on the experience to date of countries across the globe, some form of social-distancing measures appear necessary to avoid overwhelming health systems. Some countries, such as Australia, have acted before their health systems are challenged, while others have waited until infections are out of control. The economic pain as well as the number of infections and deaths appear higher with acting later on social distancing (compare the experience of Australia and the US). Extrapolating from this experience, a second wave of infections would be more costly in terms of the economy and health than keeping new infections under control, which roughly equates to keeping R<1 most of the time. With low numbers of new cases, R is likely to occasionally exceed 1, but R>1 for a sustained period would inevitably lead to the reintroduction of strict controls on social and business activity as well as increased deaths and compromised health systems.
Alison Booth
It is vital to relax social distancing slowly in order to monitor infection rates, gain more information about the pandemic and its behaviour, avoid the costs of having to reimpose tighter restrictions, make sure we have plentiful supplies of protective equipment, target research to vaccination development and also treatments so we are prepared in case (as is likely based on other countries? experiences) R starts growing again. At the same time, policy should be directed towards cushioning the impact on the less well-off of this major shock to our economy. For example, we should think about an intergenerational compact - which is to say how the winners of continued lockdown (the older folk, typically) might compensate the losers (the younger folk, particularly those in insecure employment whose prospects are so poor). Policy should also be working to restructure our economy in imaginative - and social-welfare enhancing - ways, as has sometimes occurred in postwar reconstruction. This could be done to take into account the goal of reducing climate change, which could well be our next big shock to the economy.
Jeff Borland
The policy priority should be to choose the right time to remove business restrictions put in place to ensure social distancing. For as long as economic activity is restricted by shut-downs, the scope for economic recovery will be limited. This doesn?t mean, however, that we should be racing to remove restrictions. Of course at the moment there is a trade-off between business restrictions and employment - with serious adverse consequences for well-being. But the time horizon we should have in mind is the next 12 to 18 months. The policy objective for government should be to achieve the highest average level of employment over that whole time period. We can only meet this objective if we ensure that relaxing business restrictions does not create an upsurge in COVID-19 cases. Because every time there is an upsurge (due to R>1), economic activity will need to be shut down again. Every time that happens we will be back to losing 10 to 15 per cent of jobs. Likely more as the effects of reduced income and wealth on consumer spending (and then business investment) gradually accumulate.
Robert Breunig
Low rates of COVID-19 and very low rates of transmission in the population co-exist with government continuing to enforce very strict rules that damage the economy. Few lives will be saved relative to the huge costs to the economy.
Lisa Cameron
Maintaining sufficient social distancing measures now will result in a higher immediate economic cost but lower economic costs in the long run. Relaxing social distancing measures too quickly increases the risk of further waves of the virus and future lock-downs of the economy. Reintroduction of more stringent social distancing measures in the future not only come with their own direct economic costs but the increased uncertainty associated with seesawing between lock-downs and lesser restrictions would negatively affect consumer and business confidence and increase financial volatility. The end result would be a substantial increase in the total economic cost of the virus and a postponement of the return to normality.
Fabrizio Carmignani
A policy that ensures R<1 is preferable to a policy that ensures R>1, because with the latter the disease continues to spread and this increases economic costs in the long-term. Social distancing and other non pharmaceutical interventions however need to be accompanied by a "rescue package" to (i) strengthen the capacity of the health care system (ii) ensure that workers stay employed and collect their wages (or alternatively receive income support) (iii) prevent bankruptcies of solvent businesses (iv) ensure the stability of the banking sector
Bruce Chapman
Ken Clements
Deborah Cobb-Clark
Lin Crase
Clearly, the cost impacts will vary greatly across individuals and sectors. For individuals with the capacity to work remotely the costs may prove trivial or even give rise to benefits (e.g. reduced travel time). Where this is not the case the impacts on individuals could be severe. It is also the case that the health benefits will likely be influenced by a range of other factors (e.g. degree of compliance). On balance, the Australian economy is well-placed to integrate social distancing - we enjoy geographic and technological advantages not available to others. However, given our status as a small open economy the big question is really about how particular measures adopted abroad impact our capacity to trade.
Kevin Davis
It depends very much on long such measures are needed and the impact they have on the viability of different types of businesses.
Janine Dixon
An assessment of this proposition rests on a what is assumed about the counter factual - a world in which the virus is at large and individuals need to make their own decisions about how to protect themselves and others. Mandated social distancing measures have levelled the playing field and protected vulnerable cohorts of the population. Without a coordinated response, cautious and at-risk individuals would have been at a significant disadvantage. The coordinated response has been effective at containing the pandemic and households have been supported by the $130 billion Jobkeeper package, along with Jobseeker and other stimulus payments. Acknowledging that unemployment and economic downturn puts lives at risk, social distancing measures need to be lifted as soon as it is safe to do so. However a poorly managed response would also have placed lives at risk (in addition to the deaths and long term health impacts from Covid-19) and potentially caused a similar level of economic damage.
Brian Dollery
The opportunity costs of maintaining current measures in terms of both community health and economics are growing. A better mix is required, which opens the economy but targets vulnerable groups, like frail elderly persons, for ongoing protection.
Uwe Dulleck
This is a challenging question for an economist, one where several assumptions are needed. First, without question, at the current stage, the lock down saves lives - it is hard to allocate value in $ of GDP to that - this is my first reason to disagree with a general statement like this. The second is maybe closer to where economists can have a say. Even if we only look at GDP, with the implication that lost economic activity implies less resources to invest into a health system that can reduce Australian?s exposure to (other) health risks, I find it likely recovery is dependent on succeeding in controlling the virus. Our economy will not be able to fully recover if people do not feel safe to interact. In particular now that almost everywhere in the world people have experienced COVID as a threat to them (and in particular for younger cohorts the risk may be inflated) they will not easily engage in many parts of the economy if that is risky. This may be particularly obvious With tourism and (International) education as important segments of the Australian Economy. Demand, In this sectors as well as in most others, is an important factor for Australia?s growth and on people feeling safe. In that sense the cost of protecting Australia (and in the future tourists and international students when they can return) depends on successfully controlling COVID and I feel the costs - at least in the medium to longterm - are not higher than the benefits.
Chris Edmond
Australia will be better off with policies that keep R<1. We need to always remember that the choice is not between a deep recession or a public health catastrophe. It is a choice between 1) a deep recession vs. 2) a deep recession *and* a public health catastrophe - as in the US, UK, Italy etc. The best prospects for the economic recovery involve comprehensively beating the pandemic, eradication or something close to it. Think of it as an investment that pays off in the future. Absent near-eradication or a vaccine, lifting social-distancing restrictions will not let the economy bounce back to near-normal because people, fearing for their health, will still refrain from many kinds of economic activity. They still won't go back to bars and restaurants at normal rates. Low-margin businesses will still struggle to be viable. In other words, this approach risks the worst of all worlds, compromising our public health goals and at the same time not getting a proper economic recovery. An analogy from macroeconomics may help. Friedman and Phelps argued that although there may appear to be a short-run Phillips curve tradeoff between unemployment and inflation, there is no such trade-off in the long run. Attempts to keep unemployment low at the price of higher inflation simply lead in the long run to more inflation and unemployment that ends up being no lower. In a similar way, there is no long run trade off between public health and the health of the economy in responding to the COVID-19 crisis.
Craig Emerson
The economic challenge during the COVID-19 pandemic is to maintain as much as practicable the links between employees and their employing businesses and between those businesses and the economy. The longer the restrictions are in place the greater will be the likelihood of those links being broken - leading to severe economic hardship, business failures, mortgage defaults, domestic violence, mental health problems, suicide and long-term unemployment, particularly for the young. In this deepest recession since the Great Depression, the worst affected are young people and especially young women. Keeping R at less than 1 as an absolutely binding constraint could lead to all these hardships. It nevertheless should be a key, non-binding, guiding principle but not a rule.
Saul Eslake
To date, at least, I think the answer to the question is an unambiguous 'yes', unless you are willing to discount the value assigned to the lives of older people (who would bear the brunt of the higher death toll that would result from R being greater than 1 for an extended period. However, the longer that restrictions had remained in place, the less unambiguous the answer would have become. Fortunately, however, we have already begun to relax restrictions. (Incidentally, I can't help but wonder why we have never asked this question of the cost and benefits of 'counter-terrorism' measures.
Allan Fels
Gigi Foster
The key word is "likely", and the hidden implication of the question is that we are comparing the costs of a policy environment in which "eventually everyone gets it" to the costs of a policy environment in which it is "eventually eradicated". The latter state of the world is unlikely to be achievable. Many people in Australia likely already have had the virus, without knowledge or symptoms (but hopefully, now, with antibodies). Moreover, trying to resume operations domestically and with the rest of the world while at the same time moving towards eradication of the virus through implementing the degree of social distancing required to drive R below 1 will create continuing, massive economic costs that I suspect are far greater than the (quality life years-reckoned) cost of the COVID-19 deaths and suffering that we would thereby avoid. I think it is far more likely that the ex-post optimal thing for Australia to have done is to never have had an enforced lockdown, to have encouraged people to continue to operate as normally as possible while taking sensible precautions (see Sweden), and to have moved over the past few months towards more and more young and healthy people building immunity in order to protect our most vulnerable people moving forward, including potentially into the second and later waves of the virus.
John Freebairn
The appropriate answer is a level and intensity of restrictions that equates marginal benefits of improved health outcomes with the marginal cost of loss of economic activity. As with road usage, we compare deaths, etc of accidents with benefits of transport of people and of goods and services. There is imperfect information about benefits and costs. For benefits; production function linking reduced deaths and other adverse health effects (including mental health costs and costs of postponed elective surgery) to length and severity of restrictions; and the value to be placed on lives saved, lower morbidity and anxiety, which is controversial -- such as quality of life years probabilities and costs of second -- and subsequent-round outbreak waves. For costs; first-round supply closures and loss of production and employment, and addition to inequity; recovery stage effects of slow re-build of aggregate demand to return towards full employment and production,; threats to international trade and loss of efficiency and productivity. Reality is one of forthcoming information on both the benefit and supply sides. Hence, an adaptive decision making strategy which involves experimentation, some failures with hindsight, and decision adjustments in response to new information.
Renee Fry-McKibbin
The cause of the recession in Australia will be a result of many factors, including external factors beyond our control such as the global fall in demand and trade, lack of tourist arrivals, no immigration, and no incoming international students. Social distancing is just one contributor to the economic shock that we are facing, so the costs and benefits need to be weighed against the counterfactual of a very different world to what we had in 2019. The counterfactual is of a recession regardless of social distancing policies. We need a healthy population to rebuild in a fundamentally changed world. A healthy population could be our advantage in the future if thought is put into the management of the opening of the economy later. We also do not have a good idea of the long term health costs of a significant proportion of the population contracting COVID-19. Perhaps many would recover from the illness in the short term, but how would their long term health prospects be affected? Will people suffer from respiratory issues going forward requiring ongoing medical attention, for example? We have incomplete information on the actual costs and benefits.
Lata Gangadharan
We do not yet know the full health implications of COVID-19. The economic implications are more obvious and while the economic impacts can not be ignored, social restrictions should be eased only gradually, keeping the health guidelines in mind. Australia has done exceptionally well at reducing the case load but this needs to be monitored. Testing could be increased before restrictions are eased.
Ian Harper
Plausible scenario analysis shows that the costs of allowing the virus to spread widely and rapidly within the community (i.e., allowing R>1 consistently) outweigh the costs of social distancing and other measures aimed at keeping R<1. In the former case, the forecast economic recession would be longer and deeper, driven primarily by ongoing disruption to workplaces, more widespread bankruptcies and severe loss of consumer confidence attending the inevitable "sawtooth" pattern of lockdown and release. Keeping R<1 allows confidence to return faster than otherwise and avoids repeated lockdowns, allowing more normal patterns of consumer and producer behaviour to resume sooner than otherwise, notwithstanding the costs of social distancing.
John Hewson
Assuming economic and social costs being difficult to quantify, especially likely impact on mental illness.
Richard Holden
If R>1 then the virus grows exponentially, eventually killing tens to hundreds of thousands of Australians.
Geoffrey Kingston
It is hard to argue with this proposition. We want to continue saving lives and preventing hospitals from becoming overloaded. By the same token we now need to reopen industries, progressively, and conditional at each stage on R remaining less than 1.
Michael KNOX
It is hard to argue with this proposition. We want to continue saving lives and preventing hospitals from becoming overloaded. By the same token we now need to reopen industries, progressively, and conditional at each stage on R remaining less than 1. "A very good place to start when disussing this issue is the New York Fed piece by Correia, Luck and Verner of March 27, 2020. The piece is called "[Fight the Pandemic, Save the Economy: Lessons from the 1918 Flu](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2020/03/fight-the-pandemic-save-the-economy-lessons-from-the-1918-flu.html)". The authors look at the effect of Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) in a large number of US cities in the Pandemic of 1918. NPIs include social distancing and other strategies currently in place. They find that the cities that that had the most substantial NPI program and maintained it the longest had the best growth in employment after the pandemic. This suggested that that our own program of NPIs should have substantial economic rewards in the years that follow.
Emily Lancsar
Costs include reduced economic activity, higher unemployment, and potential wellbeing loss from constrained social freedoms. Economic costs are appropriately reduced via strong economic policy response, particularly, but not exclusively, via fiscal policy. Another potential cost is secondary morbidity and mortality associated with the displacement of usual or non-COVID care, induced by supply side crowding out ? e.g. of elective surgery to increase COVID related health system capacity ? or by demand side delay in seeking usual care due to concern of exposure to the virus. However, the degree to which usual care has been displaced is yet to be quantified and likely mitigated by recent Government initiatives (e.g. introduction of Medical Benefits Schedule telehealth items, expansion of the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme continued medicine dispensing arrangements) and by the speed with which Australia ?flattened the curve? and was able to recommence elective surgery etc. The benefits importantly include reduced morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 (cases avoided and lives saved) and avoiding further economic loss associated with a second wave if R were not maintained <1. Keeping R<1 should also engender consumer confidence. Possible tradeoff between costs and benefits becomes sharper the closer we move to zero cases so another relevant issue is the timing and staging of easing of social distancing. The proposition could naturally lead to a desire to quantify relative costs and benefits. This leads not only to monetising the value of life (e.g. via value of a statistical life) and health (e.g. via monetary value of a quality adjusted life year (QALY)), but in doing so important to note that the value attached to life and health is normative and depends on value judgements of society and policy makers. Examples include different value of statistical life estimates applied in different contexts and differing monetary value of a quality life years based for for example on age, severity, proximity to end of life when that is considered premature, and the concept of "rule of rescue": perceived duty to save endangered life where possible, particularly where those lives are identifiable.
Guay Lim
Whether the benefits are likely to exceed the costs is uncertain as we are talking about concepts that are hard to measure/quantify. Are direct fiscal payments costs and/or benefits? The evaluation will also depend on how long social distancing measures will be in place, the severity/strictness of the measures as well as the nature of financial and non-financial supports. The prevalence of testing and contact tracing will also be important to the analysis.
Tony Makin
This question assumes there is a trade-off between saving lives and maintaining employment and general economic well-being. An empirical answer to the question would depend on whether the total benefit of saving lives through social distancing, valued by number of lives saved, exceeded the total costs incurred, directly and indirectly (including budget outlays on extra health spending, income support, wage subsidies, lost income, lost wealth, mental health, depression, domestic violence, lost human capital from missed schooling, and suicide). Estimating precise monetary values for some of these social cost variables and appropriately aggregating would be very challenging to say the least. The number of lives social distancing measures has saved is also highly uncertain, with estimates likely to vary greatly according to different epidemiology modelling approaches. Then there is the thorny question of how to value lives by age cohort. Nonetheless, in battles, lives are not infinitely valued, as any armed services officer could attest. What degree of social distancing is required to keep R<1 is also uncertain. It's conceivable that social distancing could deliver a net benefit on this basis by preventing a very high morbidity, though this seems unlikely in the current context.
Warwick McKibbin
The balance between costs and benefits depends very much on the way in which social distancing is implemented and what other policies are implemented as well. There is clear evidence that in countries where R>1 there has been large economic and human costs so there are clear benefits from containing the pandemic. Social distancing alone will probably not be effective unless there is a strong and transparent system of testing for COVID-19, tracing contacts of anyone who tests positive and quickly isolating cases.
Flavio Menezes
The key is to consider what might have happened if we had not acted early on closing borders, introducing social distance rules and the lockdown. Absent these measures, the rapid spread of the virus would have likely caused as much if not more economic damage, in addition to significant loss of life. The experience of countries that were late, or that proceeded in a disorganised fashion, in their suppression efforts illustrate what might have happened in Australia absent the restrictions that were imposed. While some commentators point to Sweden as an example involving less restrictive (or voluntary) measures, their approach has entailed significant loss of life (over 3,000 deaths as of the 8th of May) and it is unclear whether their economy is faring/will fare better than ours.
James Morley
Taking a dynamic perspective of the tradeoffs involved, it is clear that the future economic and social costs of COVID-19 if a medical crisis is averted are far less than the counterfactual economic and social costs associated with allowing a highly contagious and deadly virus to spread with R>0. Many of the social costs some economists link to social distancing restrictions would actually be worse given the economic fallout from a more severe recession following a mass outbreak of the virus. Furthermore, other policies should be used as much as possible to address economic and social costs of COVID-19. Social distancing restrictions should only be relaxed to the extent medical advice suggests it would keep R<1. I have written about these tradeoffs and the need to consider other policies at [Inside Story]( https://insidestory.org.au/covid-19-trade-offs-the-full-story/) and [The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/its-just-started-well-need-war-bonds-and-stimulus-on-a-scale-not-seen-in-our-lifetimes-137155).
Sue Richardson
If the infection rate was widespread and growing, I think that individuals would themselves take steps to distance and isolate themselves, regardless of what the rules were. I think it is very unlikely that people would behave, as consumers and as workers, as they did before the pandemic, if there was widespread transmission occurring. That is, a return to 'normal' is not an available option.
Rana Roy
The proposition before us can be interpreted in two ways. Interpreted in a narrowly literal sense, we are being asked to assess the likelihood of a positive benefit-cost ratio exclusively from ?maintaining social distancing measures sufficient to keep R<1 for COVID-19? tout court. Interpreted more expansively, we are being asked to assess the likelihood of a positive benefit-cost ratio from maintaining the said measures as they are meant to operate in Australia today. That is: as one instrument in a larger intervention, which is also meant to include (1) the provision of additional resources to the health system aimed at supressing an increase in excess mortality from other causes; (2) fiscal policies designed to minimise job losses (Jobkeeper) and provide an enhanced safety net for those who do lose their jobs (Jobseeker); and (3) the provision of protective equipment and other safety measures for workers with unchanged or increased workloads, including not only all medical staff but also the millions of blue-collar workers who have kept the Australian economy and society functioning through the crisis (in food production, transportation, distribution and delivery, in mining and in manufacture, in garbage collection and in street-cleaning, and so on). Had I interpreted the proposition in a narrowly literal sense, my answer would have been ?Uncertain?. A definite answer, whether in the affirmative or in the negative, requires at a minimum an ex ante estimate of all-cause excess mortality over the relevant period in addition to an ex ante estimate of the reduction in mortalities from COVID-19 resulting from social distancing measures. And it is perfectly possible to imagine a hypothetical scenario of an inadequately resourced health system, a collapsed labour market, and a brutal reduction in conditions of work delivering an increase in excess mortality from other causes that is larger than the achieved reduction in mortalities from COVID-19. The affirmative answer I have recorded in this poll is conditional on the above-described expansive interpretation of the proposition being polled. My affirmative answer follows from a single simple epidemiological assumption and a single simple economic calculation. I assume that the official advice to the Australian Government on projected deaths from COVID-19 in a laissez-faire reference scenario is roughly correct. That is: ?up to 150,000 deaths?, derived from an infection rate of 60% and a fatality rate of 1%. And I note that this projection is roughly in line with projections for comparable countries by national and international government agencies and reputable independent research centres. Now I apply here ? as I have done in all my published studies for the OECD, WHO, UNDP, UNEP, et al. ? what I regard as the only well-founded method by which to measure the cost of mortalities at the level of society as a whole: the ?value of statistical life? (VSL), as derived from aggregating individuals? willingness-to-pay to secure a marginal reduction in the risk of premature death. The VSL value used in Australia is roughly $5 million. Hence, as at today, this gives us a gross benefit, relative to the reference scenario, of ?up to $750 billion? minus $0.5 billion for the deaths from COVID-19 to date, before deducting the relevant costs to arrive at the net benefit. Looking ahead, I expect deaths from COVID-19 in Australia to rise well above the current level of roughly 100. And I expect the costs of Australia?s mitigation measures to be very large. But I do expect the sum of these losses to be less than the initial ex ante gain of ?up to $750 billion?.
Stefanie Schurer
In German we say: better a painful ending than an endless pain. Let me explain this. Short and medium term failure to eliminate, or at least slow down the spread of, the coronavirus virus will entail significant political, economic and social costs in the long run. Social distancing measures are no unjustified nuisance. Currently, they are the only option available to policy makers to curtail the capacity of the virus to spread ? measured by R, the so-called reproduction factor. The lower R, the lower is the spread of the virus. Some have argued that we should have gone for herd immunity to deal with the crisis. To achieve herd immunity, a certain share of the population must be infected and we need to assume that exposure to the coronavirus means protection against future infections. R determines how big that share must be. For instance, in a society under normal conditions, Covid's R ~ 2.5. This means that one person infected would spread it to 2.5 others. It has been widely discussed that about 60% of the population would need to be both infected and become immune to the virus (share=1-1/R). Would we like to expose 60% of the population to the virus, knowing that there is no treatment other than ventilation and that about 1% - although a contestable number - are likely to die? I do not think that policy makers would find volunteers for this experiment. Maybe it is better to make the virus behave a bit more like the flu, slow the speed of its spread to R~1.3. In this case, we would still need about 23% of the population to be exposed to achieve herd immunity. With the assumed case mortality rate, that would still imply a loss of life of 57,500 Australians (#deaths=1% of the 23% of population, ~25 million, who were exposed). If that number is still not acceptable, or if we cannot ensure that exposure means protection, which we cannot, then the only other option is virus elimination. This could be achieved, if R<1, or in plain words: every corona-infected person passes the virus on to less than one other person. Germany, which used very strict lockdown measures, achieved this for some time. When R was steadily < 1, and when a role-model testing and tracking system was in place, the Merkel government prepared for opening up the economy. Recent reports have shown that R has increased already to above 1 with the opening of the economy. The world has its eyes on Germany to learn how effective its strategy is to eliminate the virus. So, why do I think that keeping R<1, with the help of social distancing measures, outweighs the likely costs? To answer this question, one needs to think about both short-term and the long-term costs, and the dynamics in the lifecycle of a virus. The short-term costs are predictable. Australia will experience its first recession in almost three decades. Unemployment will rise, businesses will go bankrupt. Whether such recession will cause more deaths than Covid-19, cannot be answered yet. The good news is that the overall evidence from international data, and work that we have produced for Australia, suggests that recessions, if anything reduce mortality. The other good news is that Australia can buffer the economic consequences of the temporary hibernation of its economy through expansive fiscal policy. Expectations of a recession and the practical consequences of the lockdown will also entail psychic costs. They will certainly strain the emotional health of individuals and families, in particular the most vulnerable segments of the population: the old because of loneliness, and the children because of exposure to stressed family environments, a breeding ground for violence and maltreatment. These psychic costs must be taken very seriously by policymakers. Increased resource allocations to mental health and family service providers will be critical, so that they can increase their support services and target where advisable. A policy alternative that avoids, instead of alleviates, such economic and psychic short-term costs, is not advisable. The alternative would have been to have no social distancing measures at all, or to relax those in place prematurely. By prematurely, I mean before R is below 1 for extended periods of time (which scientists say is now happening in Australia). If social distancing measures were relaxed when R were 1 or greater, it would have the consequence that new hot spots of infections and deaths will emerge months down the track. It could even be that the virus comes back in full force, with reproduction rates way above 2. This would force politicians to reintroduce even harsher social distancing measures than the ones we have experienced in the past ten weeks. Such measures would certainly extinguish any revived economic activity. Theoretically, this could happen several times into the future, stretching out the battle against Covid-19 over years. Like a yoyo, the economy would bounce up and down between lockdown and easing, forcing companies, employers, employees, families, carers, and essential service providers to adapt over and over again. The uncertainty would be an emotionally draining and financially expensive exercise. In modern democracies, it is excruciatingly painful for politicians to restrict citizens? basic human rights. It is unlikely to see such rights restricted on a recurring basis without serious social unrest. Although Australia is a rich country, the economy cannot afford to roll out job and business rescue programs, the current one valued at 16% of GDP, whenever a new infection hotspot requires yet another hibernation of the economy. Thus, we must eliminate the virus now. A painful ending, achievable through keeping R<1, is economically and socially less costly, than the endless pain of allowing R to float freely above 1.
Jeffrey Sheen
The key is to find the necessary and sufficient measures that keep R<1. The problem now is that, apart from a few countries like Sweden, most governments have generally applied sufficient conditions that have curbed infections but at way too high a cost. There are measures other than social distancing that contribute to keeping R<1, such as hygiene and extensive testing for infection and antibodies that allow for a more accurate targeting of all measures.
Hugh Sibly
I have interpreted the question as asking whether it is advisable to maintain R<1 at all times (thus keep infection rates minuscule), and to keep the current social distancing measures in place to ensure that. In the absence of effective treatment or a vaccine for covid-19, Australia has no choice but to adapt to the presence of the virus in our community. We should enact the least damaging policies to navigate through the pandemic, with the goal of the return to normal economic and social interaction with each other and the rest of the world. This means adopting the minimum level of community restrictions necessary to keep infections within our capacity to provide appropriate medical treatment. These restrictions should be scientifically validated methods of slowing the spread, enacted in the least cost way. The current set of restrictions have been extraordinarily damaging to sections of the community, and the impact to the broader society will continue for years. Many current restrictions are not only excessive to maintain sufficiently low infection rates, but overly blunt. A great many restricted activities could be conducted relatively safely provided sensible social distancing is maintained. Other than preparing the medical system (which has caused it to be underutilised) Australia has not make much progress to the transition of living with the virus. By remaining a vulnerable population we have, in effect, dug ourselves into a hole. And are now congratulating ourselves how deep that hole is. Too few people are asking how we get out.
Helen Silver
The costs if there is a second wave of infections both to the health system and the economy require we enforce the social distancing measures advised by the government.
Nigel Stapledon
The health benefit is very clear. Sustained R>1 implies exponential outbreak. But R<1 could be elimination or containment, and the economic cost of the two could be very different. The more nuanced question would be the cost of elimination (and stay eliminated) strategy vs containment strategy (able to put out spot fires) which implies taking some risks. Elimination could free up the domestic economy but would for example require borders closed for a long period. For an open economy like Australia that will impose a large cost (on international traded services). It would probably preclude even the small risk with say allowing foreign students to return - down the gurgler for universities. We need to take some non-zero level of risk. Otherwise, the cost will be probably be too high.
Julie Toth
The horrendous human and economic toll in other countries shows us that Australia has escaped this global crisis relatively well, so far. The measures taken appear to be working, so far. Even though this virus appears to be deadliest for older people, the Economist reports that each COVID-19 death in Italy and the UK has lost an average of 11 life years. Many more people are gravely ill for extended periods. These losses represent huge personal, social and economic costs. The situation in developing countries is even worse. We won't know exactly how much Australia's activity restrictions will cost in total until well after this crisis has abated. Judging from current international events, it is difficult to imagine Australia's avoidance costs being greater than the cost of the devastation that we have avoided. The economic disruption is large, either way. It is worth the effort we are all taking to minimise this new risk to human health and wellbeing.
joaquin vespignani
International evidence from Denmark, New Zealand, Honk Kong and Taiwan shows that social distance measure work well, meaning that the economy may re-open relative sooner after strict social distance measures. The social and economic cost of not implementing social distance policies, lead to a much higher cost for countries which delay the social distance restrictions (e.g. Sweden, Russia, the U.S. amongst others). The reality is that there is not health system prepare for such as severe pandemic, and therefore social distance measures are required. The relaxation of these measures should be gradual, and some outbreaks are also expected in the process, as we learn more about the virus.
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The enhancements are designed to improve speed, performance and productivity, and include advanced support for RAW formats that meet and exceed industry demands.
We don't know when or if this item will be back in stock. You can even roll your mouse over your thumbnails for instant previews.
Tribe shaman and elders would draw the spiritual energy of any animal into existence by tattooing themselves and others with the image! Floor and Decor Kennesaw Ga for Your Home Inspiration. Features include a new import tool lets you rename, back up, categorize and add keywords to image files. Quickly and easily browse and find photos, and fix red-eye, lighting and more with easy-to-use editing tools.
You'll be able to perform basic editing tasks, including red eye removal and exposure adjustment. Organize your Windows file folders, add keywords and ratings, edit your metadata, and create yo.


The Pulse CCM has been one the the most downloaded build on the Ares Wizard. You'll never ever have to worry about old, non-working, and outdated add-ons because they are removed and reorganized with each Pulse update, which happens regularly.
The design of the build is very clean and easy to navigate, along with great wallpapers to complement the categories. You'll find that the menu and submenu is organized very nicely, making it easily to look for content quickly. It just has very simply and clean look, yet very efficient to where you need to go.
There is a widget above the menu, more near the top of the screen, which is a great size that doesn't completely own the screen.
So, it a took awhile for the Pulse CCM to become available for Kodi Krypton 17, but now that it's here available and compatible. This is the build for you if you like a build that gets updated regularly.


This amazing Pendant was initially carved in wax in 2 parts, resembling a Waterfall as Design idea and was produced in 18ct Yellow Gold and 925 AG Sterling Silver embracing an oval facetted Tanzanite in bezel setting. Each part on its own would look stunning as pendant or earrings, also matching our ring and earring Waterfall Design Jewellery.
This Pendant combines two different metals, which requires a lot of skill, using 2 metals with different melting points and expansion while soldering.
The normal turnover time for this pendant is 4 -6 weeks depending on availability of your choice of gemstone.
If you need the jewellery by a specific date, e.g. wedding, please advise us. We will do our best to match the date and will let you know, if it is possible for us to finish it and mail it in time.
Please contact us if you would like to discuss custom made jewellery.
Please enjoy other sculptured Pendant Designs on our webpage.


text:
Q: Why offline first not working in polymer2 I cannot convinced why offline first not working in Polymer2. Here is my sw-precache-config.js and polymer.json
module.exports = {
  staticFileGlobs: [
    '/index.html',
    '/manifest.json',
    '/bower_components/webcomponentsjs/webcomponents-loader.js',
    '/images/*'
  ],
  navigateFallback: '/index.html',
  navigateFallbackWhitelist: [/^(?!.*\.html$|\/data\/).*/],
  runtimeCaching: [
    {
      urlPattern: /\/bower_components\/webcomponentsjs\/.*.js/,
      handler: 'fastest',
      options: {
        cache: {
          name: 'webcomponentsjs-polyfills-cache'
        }
      }
    },
    {
      urlPattern: /\/data\/images\/.*/,
      handler: 'cacheFirst',
      options: {
        cache: {
          maxEntries: 200,
          name: 'items-cache'
        }
      }
    },
    {
      urlPattern: /\/data\/.*json/,
      handler: 'fastest',
      options: {
        cache: {
          maxEntries: 100,
          name: 'data-cache'
        }
      }
    }
  ]
};

polymer.json
{
  "entrypoint": "index.html",
  "shell": "src/my-app.html",
  "fragments": [
    "src/my-home.html",
    "src/my-category.html",
    "src/my-company.html",
    "src/my-courses.html",
    "src/my-view404.html"
  ],
  "sources": [
    "src/**/*",
    "data/**/*",
    "images/**/*",
    "bower.json"
  ],
  "extraDependencies": [
    "manifest.json",
    "bower_components/webcomponentsjs/*.js"
  ],
  "lint": {
    "rules": ["polymer-2"]
  },
  "builds": [{
    "name": "bundled",
    "addServiceWorker": true,
    "bundle": true,
    "js": {"minify": false, "compile": false},
    "css": {"minify": false},
    "html": {"minify": false}
  },{
    "name": "unbundled",
    "addServiceWorker": true,
    "bundle": false,
    "js": {"minify": true, "compile": true},
    "css": {"minify": true},
    "html": {"minify": true}
  }]
}

Please let me know why it's not working at all?

A: you have to add "swPrecacheConfig": "sw-precache-config.js", to each 'build' array item you want to include your service-worker.
Also, note that the dev (polymer serve) environment (not builded) bypass the service worker registration.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Q: Uncaught Error: Type mismatch in Date value I am using Google chart and need to specify date in JS format.
 arrdata.addColumn('date','ObservationDateTime');

As it needs JS format date, I converted SQL date to JS date and now it looks like this
2014,08,01

However, I still get an error that says ::
Uncaught Error: Type mismatch. Value 2014,08,01
does not match type date in column index 0

How do I fix this ? Why do I get this error when date looks in JS format to me?\
Edit:
Here is how I am converting and forwarding it in json.
String dateString = DateTime.toString();
StringTokenizer dateTokens = new StringTokenizer(dateString,"-");
String ObservationDateTime = "";
    while(dateTokens.hasMoreTokens()){
        String tokenIs = dateTokens.nextToken();
        ObservationDateTime = ObservationDateTime  + tokenIs +",";
    }
    int finalDateLength = ObservationDateTime.length();
    ObservationDateTime = ObservationDateTime.substring(0,finalDateLength-1);
String ObservationSource = rs.getString("ObservationSource");

float observationValue = rs.getFloat("ObservationValue");

obj = new JSONObject();
obj.put("ObservationDateTime", ObservationDateTime);
Details.add(obj);
}
resobj.put("Details", Details);
out.write(resobj.toString());

}


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text:
Man killed in construction accident
A 62-year-old man who was building his own house died early Wednesday in a construction accident.
Jose Ucar was working under a concrete deck when a section collapsed on him, according to Capt. John McClure of the Pueblo County Sheriff's Department.
Coroner James Kramer said Ucar was pronounced dead at 7:15 a.m. at the home he's building, which is next to his current residence in the 35000 block of Colorado 96 East.
"It was an unfortunate construction accident," McClure said.
- Nick Bonham

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
Warning on bogus Environmental Health Officers
Home / Employment Law, HR and Health & Safety Blog / Warning on bogus Environmental Health Officers
Police and council officials have issued a warning to businesses to be on their guard for impostors fraudulently claiming to be environmental health or trading standards officers.
The warning, from Trafford Council and Greater Manchester Police (Trafford South), follows an incident in which a woman posing as an environmental health officer entered a restaurant and carried out an "inspection". The woman then declared the premise to be unhygienic and stated she was going to "close it down". Trafford Council and Greater Manchester Police (Trafford South) have confirmed the woman was an impostor. There have been other reported cases of imposters fraudulently claiming to be environmental health or trading standards officers in Solihull, London and Lincolnshire, with the motive seeming to be some sort of financial gain or extortion. In the latest case, police and council officials have been unable to confirm the motives of the woman, who has not as yet been apprehended, but possible lines of enquiry are said to include a personal vendetta. In a statement, Trafford Council said, "It is a criminal offence to impersonate an environmental health officer or a trading standards officer. If an officer calls at your business, always ask to see ID and never be afraid to ring [the] Council to check them out." The Council said that fraud can also be reported through the police website at www.actionfraud.police.uk or by calling 0300 123 2040.


As part of my own teaching, I regularly create a variety of resources and display material which I have chosen to make available here. The collection of files here will continue to grow as I have time to prepare them for 'publication' and as I design new material. All of the resources are freely viewable, but to get a copy which can be printed or copied there is a nominal charge which can be paid through PayPal. Once the payment has been made the resource will automatically be emailed within seconds.
Posters and glossaries of technical vocabulary for use in linguistic and literary analysis.
collections of quotations from the past two thousand years about reading, writing and books in general.


text:
bptA (bbe16) is essential for the persistence of the Lyme disease spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi, in its natural tick vector
Andrew T. Revel, Jon S. Blevins, Consuelo Almazán, Lori Neil, Katherine M. Kocan, José De La Fuente, Kayla E. Hagman, Michael V. Norgard
Microbiology - Norgard Lab
Borrelia burgdorferi (Bb), the agent of Lyme disease, is a zoonotic spirochetal bacterium that depends on arthropod (Ixodes ticks) and mammalian (rodent) hosts for its persistence in nature. The quest to identify borrelial genes responsible for Bb's parasitic dependence on these two diverse hosts has been hampered by limitations in the ability to genetically manipulate virulent strains of Bb. Despite this constraint, we report herein the in activation and genetic complementation of a linear plasmid-25-encoded gene (bbe16) to assess its role in the virulence, pathogenesis, and survival of Bb during its natural life cycle. bbe16 was found to potentiate the virulence of Bb in the murins model of Lyme borreliosis and was essential for the persistence of Bb in Ixodes scapularis ticks. As such, we have renamed bbe16 a gene encoding borrelial persistence in ticks (bpt)A. Although protease accessibility experiments suggested that BptA as a putative lipoprotein is surface-exposed on the outer membrane of Bb, the molecular mechanism(s) by which BptA promotes Bb persistence within its tick vector remains to be elucidated. BptA also was shown to be highly conserved (>88% similarity and >74% identity at the deduced amino acid levels) in all Bb sensu lato strains tested, suggesting that BptA may be widely used by Lyme borreliosis spirochetes for persistence in nature. Given Bb's absolute dependence on and intimate association with its arthropod and mammalian hosts, BptA should be considered a virulence factor critical for Bb's overall parasitic strategy.
Borrelia burgdorferi
Ixodes
Borrelia burgdorferi Group
Spirochaetales
Lipoproteins
Revel, A. T., Blevins, J. S., Almazán, C., Neil, L., Kocan, K. M., De La Fuente, J., ... Norgard, M. V. (2005). bptA (bbe16) is essential for the persistence of the Lyme disease spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi, in its natural tick vector. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102(19), 6972-6977. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0502565102
bptA (bbe16) is essential for the persistence of the Lyme disease spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi, in its natural tick vector. / Revel, Andrew T.; Blevins, Jon S.; Almazán, Consuelo; Neil, Lori; Kocan, Katherine M.; De La Fuente, José; Hagman, Kayla E.; Norgard, Michael V.
In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 102, No. 19, 10.05.2005, p. 6972-6977.
Revel, AT, Blevins, JS, Almazán, C, Neil, L, Kocan, KM, De La Fuente, J, Hagman, KE & Norgard, MV 2005, 'bptA (bbe16) is essential for the persistence of the Lyme disease spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi, in its natural tick vector', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 102, no. 19, pp. 6972-6977. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0502565102
Revel AT, Blevins JS, Almazán C, Neil L, Kocan KM, De La Fuente J et al. bptA (bbe16) is essential for the persistence of the Lyme disease spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi, in its natural tick vector. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2005 May 10;102(19):6972-6977. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0502565102
Revel, Andrew T. ; Blevins, Jon S. ; Almazán, Consuelo ; Neil, Lori ; Kocan, Katherine M. ; De La Fuente, José ; Hagman, Kayla E. ; Norgard, Michael V. / bptA (bbe16) is essential for the persistence of the Lyme disease spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi, in its natural tick vector. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2005 ; Vol. 102, No. 19. pp. 6972-6977.
@article{f5f3aed3b72a4c95ae79cd799f2f577b,
title = "bptA (bbe16) is essential for the persistence of the Lyme disease spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi, in its natural tick vector",
abstract = "Borrelia burgdorferi (Bb), the agent of Lyme disease, is a zoonotic spirochetal bacterium that depends on arthropod (Ixodes ticks) and mammalian (rodent) hosts for its persistence in nature. The quest to identify borrelial genes responsible for Bb's parasitic dependence on these two diverse hosts has been hampered by limitations in the ability to genetically manipulate virulent strains of Bb. Despite this constraint, we report herein the in activation and genetic complementation of a linear plasmid-25-encoded gene (bbe16) to assess its role in the virulence, pathogenesis, and survival of Bb during its natural life cycle. bbe16 was found to potentiate the virulence of Bb in the murins model of Lyme borreliosis and was essential for the persistence of Bb in Ixodes scapularis ticks. As such, we have renamed bbe16 a gene encoding borrelial persistence in ticks (bpt)A. Although protease accessibility experiments suggested that BptA as a putative lipoprotein is surface-exposed on the outer membrane of Bb, the molecular mechanism(s) by which BptA promotes Bb persistence within its tick vector remains to be elucidated. BptA also was shown to be highly conserved (>88{\%} similarity and >74{\%} identity at the deduced amino acid levels) in all Bb sensu lato strains tested, suggesting that BptA may be widely used by Lyme borreliosis spirochetes for persistence in nature. Given Bb's absolute dependence on and intimate association with its arthropod and mammalian hosts, BptA should be considered a virulence factor critical for Bb's overall parasitic strategy.",
author = "Revel, {Andrew T.} and Blevins, {Jon S.} and Consuelo Almaz{\'a}n and Lori Neil and Kocan, {Katherine M.} and {De La Fuente}, Jos{\'e} and Hagman, {Kayla E.} and Norgard, {Michael V.}",
T1 - bptA (bbe16) is essential for the persistence of the Lyme disease spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi, in its natural tick vector
AU - Revel, Andrew T.
AU - Blevins, Jon S.
AU - Almazán, Consuelo
AU - Neil, Lori
AU - Kocan, Katherine M.
AU - De La Fuente, José
AU - Hagman, Kayla E.
AU - Norgard, Michael V.
N2 - Borrelia burgdorferi (Bb), the agent of Lyme disease, is a zoonotic spirochetal bacterium that depends on arthropod (Ixodes ticks) and mammalian (rodent) hosts for its persistence in nature. The quest to identify borrelial genes responsible for Bb's parasitic dependence on these two diverse hosts has been hampered by limitations in the ability to genetically manipulate virulent strains of Bb. Despite this constraint, we report herein the in activation and genetic complementation of a linear plasmid-25-encoded gene (bbe16) to assess its role in the virulence, pathogenesis, and survival of Bb during its natural life cycle. bbe16 was found to potentiate the virulence of Bb in the murins model of Lyme borreliosis and was essential for the persistence of Bb in Ixodes scapularis ticks. As such, we have renamed bbe16 a gene encoding borrelial persistence in ticks (bpt)A. Although protease accessibility experiments suggested that BptA as a putative lipoprotein is surface-exposed on the outer membrane of Bb, the molecular mechanism(s) by which BptA promotes Bb persistence within its tick vector remains to be elucidated. BptA also was shown to be highly conserved (>88% similarity and >74% identity at the deduced amino acid levels) in all Bb sensu lato strains tested, suggesting that BptA may be widely used by Lyme borreliosis spirochetes for persistence in nature. Given Bb's absolute dependence on and intimate association with its arthropod and mammalian hosts, BptA should be considered a virulence factor critical for Bb's overall parasitic strategy.
AB - Borrelia burgdorferi (Bb), the agent of Lyme disease, is a zoonotic spirochetal bacterium that depends on arthropod (Ixodes ticks) and mammalian (rodent) hosts for its persistence in nature. The quest to identify borrelial genes responsible for Bb's parasitic dependence on these two diverse hosts has been hampered by limitations in the ability to genetically manipulate virulent strains of Bb. Despite this constraint, we report herein the in activation and genetic complementation of a linear plasmid-25-encoded gene (bbe16) to assess its role in the virulence, pathogenesis, and survival of Bb during its natural life cycle. bbe16 was found to potentiate the virulence of Bb in the murins model of Lyme borreliosis and was essential for the persistence of Bb in Ixodes scapularis ticks. As such, we have renamed bbe16 a gene encoding borrelial persistence in ticks (bpt)A. Although protease accessibility experiments suggested that BptA as a putative lipoprotein is surface-exposed on the outer membrane of Bb, the molecular mechanism(s) by which BptA promotes Bb persistence within its tick vector remains to be elucidated. BptA also was shown to be highly conserved (>88% similarity and >74% identity at the deduced amino acid levels) in all Bb sensu lato strains tested, suggesting that BptA may be widely used by Lyme borreliosis spirochetes for persistence in nature. Given Bb's absolute dependence on and intimate association with its arthropod and mammalian hosts, BptA should be considered a virulence factor critical for Bb's overall parasitic strategy.


SwiftHighSpeed offers Internet service via the following technology: DSL.
Swift High Speed is a residential and commercial wireless Internet provider serving South East Manitoba. It is locally owned and operated. Relatively new on the ISP scene, it has been in business since 2012, but its owners have more than 10 years of experience behind them. Residential Internet plans range in download speed from 2.5 to 10 Mbps. Standard installation costs $199.99 and line of sight installation varies in price. Business Internet plans have symmetrical speeds ranging from 5 to 20 Mbps, with the option of a customized package available. Technical support is available 24/7. There are no data caps on service. Contracts are not required with Swift High Speed. In fact, there is even a 60 day full refund guarantee.
The following plans and pricing are not available in all areas. Please contact SwiftHighSpeed for plans and pricing available in your area.
SwiftHighSpeed is available in the following cities: Gravenhurst, ON, Guelph, ON, Hamilton, ON, Huntsville, ON, Kapuskasing, ON, Kawartha Lakes, ON, Niverville, MB, Thunder Bay, ON, Timmins, ON, Toronto, ON, Vaughan, ON, Whitby, ON, Sarnia, ON, Saugeen Shores, ON, Barrie, ON, Smooth Rock Falls, ON, Georgina, ON, Goderich, ON, Orillia, ON, Oshawa, ON, Ottawa, ON, Owen Sound, ON, Peterborough, ON, Midland, ON and North Bay, ON and many more.


Want to be notified of new releases in jwako/ionic_rails_sample?
This is a Ionic application fully configured to work with the ng-token-auth. If you use devise_token_auth gem as a server-side authentication, you can integrate client-side application with server-side seamlessly.
Run a local development server with built in filesystem.
You can use a rails application with the devise_token_auth gem as a server side.


Thanks for booking with Clarkes Events. if you are filling in this form you have already agreed the date and price with us already and just would like to pay by card. Please fill in the form in full and once processed i will send you your booking conformation.
Please note we take an hour to set up the disco and about the same to pack away depending on the venue location.
you are paying a deposit of £100 to secure your booking. the remaining balance is due before or at the event.


text:
S. Korea, U.S. to decide timing of OPCON transfer next year
Seoul and Washington have agreed to reset the timing of the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) next year after reviewing North Korean threat and the South Korean forces capabilities to deal with it, the defense ministry here said Monday. The issue of the OPCON transfer to Seoul surfaced as the major issue in this year's parliamentary audit on the defense ministry, which in May proposed the U.S. governm...
By 윤민식
Published : Oct 14, 2013 - 12:06
Updated : Oct 14, 2013 - 12:06
Seoul and Washington have agreed to reset the timing of the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) next year after reviewing North Korean threat and the South Korean forces capabilities to deal with it, the defense ministry here said Monday.
The issue of the OPCON transfer to Seoul surfaced as the major issue in this year's parliamentary audit on the defense ministry, which in May proposed the U.S. government to reconsider the December 2015 deadline in light of the rising North Korean nuclear and missile threat.
In a bilateral defense summit earlier this month, the two nations agreed to form a task force team to discuss conditions for the right timing and draw a conclusion in the first half of next year, the defense ministry said in a report.
South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin stressed the importance of the allies' combined surveillance capabilities to detect movments by the North Korean military, pledging to bolster his military's own capabilities to deter the present danger and potential threat.
"The South Korea-U.S. combined forces are critical in making command decisions, while South Korean forces have enough strike capabilities," Kim said during the parliamentary defense meeting.
"The South Korean forces are currently preparing to cope with the North Korean threat, while preparing for potential threat in the future. We will consider mid- and long-term measures to bolster capabilities against potential threat."
South Korea is scheduled to take over the wartime operational command of all troops on the peninsula in December 2015, a timeline that had already been pushed back from the previous deadline of 2012, but rising threat from the communist rival fueled concerns over the planned transition.
In light of the heightened tension with Pyongyang's near-daily war threats against South Korea and the U.S. for their joint military drills in spring, Kim said he suggested that President Park Geun-hye reconsider the timing of the planned transition.
Seoul's regaining of its wartime control has been a sensitive issue in the nation still technically at war with North Korea over concerns that it could send a wrong message to the communist rival, which seeks to advance its weapons program under its young leader Kim Jong-un.
Opposition party lawmakers criticized the government, saying it is being too dependent on the U.S., and called for the transition as scheduled.
"Too much reliance on alliance with the U.S. has drawn both light and shade," Rep. Jin Sung-joon of the Democratic Party said.
"The South Korea-U.S. alliance provided deterrence against North Korea in the last 60 years, but it delayed South Korea's gaining its self-defense capabilities."
Another DP lawmaker, Baek Kun-gi, a former four-star Army general, denounced the move by the government, saying the postponement proposal is based on "political considerations" rather than actual "defense conditions."
Meanwhile, the protracted fighter jet project also took center stage during the parliamentary audit.
Last month, the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) bowed to public pressure and voted down a bid by Boeing to supply 60 combat jets to restart the 8.3 trillion won ($7.2 billion) fighter aircraft program.
Locked in competition with Lockheed Martin's F-35 stealth jet and EADS' Eurofighter, Boeing's F-15 Silent Eagle came close to winning the contract as it was the only jet that came within budget. But the state arms procurement agency decided to restart the project at the last minute to get a more advanced, radar-evading aircraft, further delaying the replacement of the aging fleet of F-4s and F-5s.
Seoul had initially required a potential contractor to deliver 60 jets for five years from 2017.
"While the defense ministry has been inconsistent over the need to adopt stealth jets, security vacuum in the air power has become unavoidable," Rep. Chung Hee-soo of the ruling Saenuri Party said.
"After voting down the F-15 SE to get the stealth jet, (the South Korean government) will be placed in a very disadvantageous position when dealing with Lockheed Martin in the future."
DP lawmaker Kim Jin-pyo said the defense ministry's changing stance from putting priority on price conditions to stressing stealth capabilities shows its lack of consistent strategy in building the nation's air power.
"The government should apologize for hurting South Korea's international credibility and fueling doubt over its defense projects," Kim said. (Yonhap News)


The timeless songs of Billie Holiday, Dinah Washington, Ella Fitzgerald and many more are performed by this mesmerising artist. Without a doubt Vimala is one of the best young vocal talents to emerge in recent years. "Vimala Rowe is sensational." – The Arts Desk Over 18s only. Valid ID required. Tables may not be able to be held beyond booking time. To ensure that you and your friends sit together, please book together. Please note the ticket price is per person and includes either a two-course dinner or a cocktail. The venue reserves the right to alter or change the programme, timing, lineup or menu without prior notification. All offers and deals are subject to availability. Live show times: - Tue-Thu: 9:15pm - Fri-Sat: 9:45pm If you are booking for Dinner + Show tickets, you will be given further instruction in your confirmation email.


text:
Q: How to gain complete access to a heroku-postgresql database via python I made a postrgesql database on heroku. Then I tried to access it via a python script. For that I wrote the following code.
import psycopg2

#connect to the db
con = psycopg2.connect(
            host = "an_aws_ec2_instance",
            database="d57kjtuarj5li8",
            user = "mmpywqodjzxlzr",
            password = "************************************")

#cursor
cur = con.cursor()

#execute query
cur.execute("CREATE TABLE accounts (user_id serial PRIMARY KEY, username VARCHAR ( 50 ) UNIQUE NOT NULL, password VARCHAR ( 50 ) NOT NULL, email VARCHAR ( 255 ) UNIQUE NOT NULL, created_on TIMESTAMP NOT NULL, last_login TIMESTAMP)")
cur.execute = ("""SELECT * FROM accounts""")
rows = cur.fetchall()

for r in rows:
    print (r)

#commit the transcation
con.commit()

#close the cursor
cur.close()

#close the connection
con.close()

But on executing the code, I got the following error.
---> 15 cur.execute = ("""SELECT * FROM accounts""")
     16 rows = cur.fetchall()

AttributeError: 'psycopg2.extensions.cursor' object attribute 'execute' is read-only

A: When you comapare your two SQL lines, there is a major difference.
This calls the method execute on the object cur, with the SQL statement as parameter:
cur.execute("CREATE TABLE accounts (user_id serial PRIMARY KEY, username VARCHAR ( 50 ) UNIQUE NOT NULL, password VARCHAR ( 50 ) NOT NULL, email VARCHAR ( 255 ) UNIQUE NOT NULL, created_on TIMESTAMP NOT NULL, last_login TIMESTAMP)")

This here is something different. Here you are trying to assign a string (the SQL statement) to an attribute (execute), which is read-only on that object.
cur.execute = ("""SELECT * FROM accounts""")
#          THIS

if remove the = from the second statement, you're fine.


text:
squeaky feet
the side effects of squash on life
Club reviews & info
CityView Racquet Club
Eastern Athletic Club
Long Live Printing House
Sports Club LA
Bermuda/NY/NE tourney
Printing House pics
Squash gear & gifts
Upcoming tourneys/events/RRs
← Racquet Club to the (Male) Gods
2000 miles of water: crossing the Atlantic by catamaran →
The Very Last Match
Posted on April 13, 2011	by Tracy J Gates
The Last Printing House 5.5 team
I'm about twenty minutes late. Maybe half an hour, when I get off the elevator on the 7th floor of the Harvard Club. The first match of the men's 5.5 semi-finals was supposed to start at seven p.m. But it was also supposed to be a win for Printing House. A pretty sure thing, on paper at least. So I wasn't too worried. Until I get close to the courts and the guy who was supposed to win is standing in the hall outside the courts looking, well, not like a winner.
"You already play?" I ask.
He nods and my heart is already beginning to sink as I ask the inevitable question. But I already know the answer. When you win, it shows. It wasn't showing.
A year ago, I wrote about winning. It was my first blog post. Ever. And as the captain of the triumphant team, as well as the victor in my match, I felt pretty amazing. Victory doesn't come every day. And when you work hard for it, for a whole season, it's a wonderful thing. We had played our final match at Harvard Club as well, and I remember walking to the subway station in Times Square with a big stupid smile on my face. One would think I'd been up to something a lot less legal.
Losing, however, is like falling on your face, and wondering if it's even worth it to get up. I should know. I've done a lot of it this year. I took a risk to move up a league level this season and the few matches I played I was soundly trounced. Should I have stayed back in 4.0 and just played higher on the ladder? Probably. But I've also learned certain things from losing – and from captaining a higher level team – that I never would've by staying safely in a place I know so well. When you get your butt kicked, you start to really see what you need to do. And while I wasn't able to get to that place in one season, I saw some of my teammates do it. One in particular. Losing fanned the flames for her; her losses at the beginning of the season turned into wins by the end. Just knowing that I helped someone love squash again felt like a win to me.
However, it was still really rough to see the teams of the club I loved and lost lose match after match in the league semi-finals. First, our women's 5.0 team, after scratching our way to number three, lost 1-2 to Harvard Club. Then the men's 4.5 captained by Dinesh Boaz tied in games, but lost overall by eleven points – eleven little points! – to Yale Club. And, finally, our last hope and, by some accounts, our best, the men's 5.5 captained by Will Cheng was letting Harvard Club in the side door to the finals.
Of course, it's never a happy thing to see a match go the wrong way for your home club team. But there's such a thing as losing badly and losing admirably. And that was the case in the deciding match of the evening. #3 Steven Baker was down two games to one when I walked in, but he and his opponent, Asher Hochberg, were well-matched and they were truly battling it out, hitting rails as hard they could down the left wall, throwing in quick cross-courts, and going for drop after front left drop. After Steven clinched the fourth game, I still wasn't sure which way it would go, and clearly no one else did either. Early in the fifth game, it looked like Steven's to lose. "It's over" said one optimistic observer. And it appeared as if it might be; Steven had turned it up a notch. But it's never over til the last point is won. Especially in a five game match. Especially when it means getting into the finals or not. You don't last this long to lose. But someone has to. And this time it was us.
The final game for Printing House between Gustav Detter (PH) and Richard Chin (HC) became an exhibition match, instead of a nail biter, and I'm afraid my heart was too crushed to let my brain focus. Too bad, as it was the first time I'd seen Richard Chin play and it was a revelation to see a player use years of wisdom and experience to outwit a young Swedish National Champion and someone who'd been on the cover of Squash Magazine. Although perhaps winning the New England Championships the day before had taken a slight physical toll on our guy….
It's been a rough season for Printing House players. We lost our club, we lost seeing our friends everyday, and now our last Printing House teams lost the chance to go out in a blaze of glory. I (and perhaps you, too) even received an ominous "last printing house email" from one of the PH team captains. But I'm a 'game is half won' kind of person, and I can't promise that I'll never write about Printing House again. Yes, I'm going to go weep into the foam of a cold one at the Blind Tiger tonight. But losing Printing House is like losing in the 5th game. Next time it ain't gonna happen.
Detter vs. Swanepoel on 12/13/10
Going forward, I'm going to think of another match as the last Printing House match. It was the last league match played at Printing House back in December and one of the teammates wrote about it, but only a few of us had the pleasure of reading it. So now we all can here. Whatever great lessons we learn from losing, winning is still so much more fun.
This entry was posted in Printing House, squash. Bookmark the permalink.
Breaking the rules of the Maah Daah Hey: how Not to mountain bike the Badlands
When a road beckons… A summer of biking and books
A Place Where Everything is Possible
Last Women Standing: A Sobhy & El Sherbini Shoot Out
Rooting for Sobhy & Wishing Age Didn't Matter Much
Crossing the Atlantic by Catamaran.... (click on photo for story)
I am an Am, Sam I am: Amateur Adventures at the WDSA Turner Cup
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Squeakyfeet was created out of a love for squash and an obsession for writing. Or it could be the other way around....
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© Tracy J. Gates and Squeakyfeet, 2010-2016. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this site's author and owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Tracy J. Gates and Squeakyfeet with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.
Another ToC Stunner: Gohar Downs Massaro
Downton Abbey Blues: How to miss the best squash at ToC
Big City, Bright Squash Lights – ToC 2016 Begins
Penguins Know How to Party: An Ode to Howe Cup in Boston
What Do Greek Olives Taste Like? Revelations in the Peloponnese
What's better than the best burger in NYC? Victory at the ToC!
Who's Afraid of a Five Game Match?? Not the Women.
A Night of Frustration, Exhaustion, Surprise, and Predictability
Nicol and Raneem's Excellent Adventure Story
A Night of New York Women…and Squash
It's a Good Day in the Badlands . . . if you can keep your bike upright
The Here and Now: a little skiing/squash zen
Snow, Beer, Nick Matthew & Amr: An Evening at the ToC
Louder than Lions – Howe Cup Roars with Women
A very good, bad day : cycling through the Olympic decision
Every Night Eat Ice Cream: Charlie Johnson Brings Refreshing Advice to CityView
Doubles for Mere Mortals: A Weekend at the U.S. Century Championships
Facing Obama Arms & other Take-aways from the Tournament of Champions
thinking twice: seven days on $33.29
This City Smells : eating on $5 a day
SNAP is not a game
A Woman at the Fights
Daily Squash Man
one small step for lance
Learning to Fall
Fathers and Daughters, Mothers and Sons
Could a Fashion Model Play Squash? Get Real.
Get Out While You Can!
No Slouching for El Sherbini at the Tournament of Champions
Curly Hair Makes You a Better Squash Player – and other things learned at the ToC
A Semi for the History Books: Big Upset at Briggs Cup!
My Irene Triathlon: NYC to NE to the Catskills
"Immersed in the everyday. Full tilt."
Master and Professor
Flip Flop Squash
Goodbye Y
Obsession, Addiction, and reading a book about both
2000 miles of water: crossing the Atlantic by catamaran


Signs show that the April 2 Glendale municipal election is approaching. Good, because political participation fuels our democracy. I adorn my property and appreciate seeing messages in other yards, even for candidates I oppose.
All of us have a right to our opinions, but should people in business express their politics at their establishments? It has been my impression that shopkeepers don't want to risk turning customers off by partisanship.
For instance, signs for City Council candidate Mike Mohill in some Montrose establishments definitely make me less likely to patronize those shops.
I believe that Mohill's political school of thought would cost Montrose many more spenders, starting with retired city employees. A single-minded focus on shrinking government spending is not good for the economy and lowers the standard of living for workers, i.e., shoppers.
I would rather see a flurry of signs reminding people about the upcoming election and to get out and vote.


text:
Tax Policy:
Summary of GAO Work Related to Expiring Tax Provisions
T-GGD-92-11: Published: Jan 28, 1992. Publicly Released: Jan 28, 1992.
James R. White
GAO discussed 5 of the 12 expiring tax provisions extended by the Tax Extension Act of 1991. GAO noted that: (1) of the 12 provisions, qualified mortgage revenue bonds (QMB), the targeted jobs tax credit, the low-income housing tax credit, the qualified research tax credit, and employer-provided educational assistance benefits account for 70 percent of the estimated foregone federal revenues in fiscal years 1992 through 1996; (2) QMB were an inefficient and costly way to provide assistance to first-time home buyers and serve mostly buyers who could afford homes anyway; (3) the targeted jobs program was not fully achieving its goals, since there were no substantial differences in participants' earnings before and after obtaining targeted jobs, compared to others who were not in the program; (4) providing low-income housing through housing certificates or vouchers would be more efficient than building or rehabilitating housing in areas where adequate low-income housing exists; (5) Congress revised the base used in calculating the qualified research credit in 1989, but because the base is not subject to periodic reviews and many companies' spending and sales continue growing, the revised base may become deficient after a few years; and (6) sufficient information is not available to adequately measure whether the educational assistance provision effectively meets its objectives.
Matters for Congressional Consideration
Comments: In the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993, Congress retroactively extended the research tax credit from July 1, 1992, until June 30, 1995. The extension did not adjust the base used in calculating the credit. Congress again extended the credit, but for only a short period, for research expenditures made from July 1, 1996, through May 31, 1997. The extending legislation added an alternative credit computation method for taxpayers that could not earn a credit under the regular computation method. Other potential problems relating to the credit's base were not addressed or studied in depth. The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 extended the credit from May 31, 1997, through June 30, 1998 with no change in the base of the credit. The credit has now expired. Bills have been introduced in both the Senate and the House to permanently extend the credit. Some of those bills would revise the base of the credit. None of the bills have come up for a vote yet.
Matter: If the research tax credit is permanently extended, Congress may wish to consider ensuring that the credit continues to provide an attractive incentive to most taxpayers at an acceptable revenue cost by requiring that the base be reviewed periodically and adjusted as needed.
Status: Closed - Not Implemented
Comments: In the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997, Congress extended the employer-provided educational assistance provision for undergraduate course work begun after June 30, 1997, and before June 1, 2000. Although the GAO recommendation was made before this and four earlier extensions of the provision, Congress did not amend the reporting requirement.
Matter: If Congress should decide to extend section 127 of the Internal Revenue Code again, it should modify and maintain the reporting requirement for a sufficient period to establish a reasonable basis for evaluating whether the assistance is reaching the targeted population.
Find Recent Work on Tax Policy and Administration »
Tax Administration:
Better Coordination Could Improve IRS's Use of Third-Party Information Reporting to Help Reduce the Tax Gap
GAO-21-102: Published: Dec 15, 2020. Publicly Released: Jan 14, 2021.
IRS Reorganization:
Planning Addressed Key Reform Practices, but Goals and Measures for the Plan Have Not Been Finalized
Opportunity Zones:
Improved Oversight Needed to Evaluate Tax Expenditure Performance
GAO-21-30: Published: Oct 8, 2020. Publicly Released: Nov 9, 2020.
Opportunities Exist to Improve Oversight of Hospitals' Tax-Exempt Status
Taxpayer Service:
IRS Could Improve the Taxpayer Experience by Using Better Service Performance Measures
Abusive Tax Schemes:
Offshore Insurance Products and Associated Compliance Risks
GAO-20-589: Published: Jul 30, 2020. Publicly Released: Aug 31, 2020.
Taxpayer Compliance:
More Income Reporting Needed for Taxpayers Working through Online Platforms
Tax Exempt Organizations:
IRS Increasingly Uses Data in Examination Selection, but Could Further Improve Selection Processes
GAO-20-454: Published: Jun 16, 2020. Publicly Released: Jun 16, 2020.
Management Report:
Improvements Are Needed to Enhance the Internal Revenue Service's Internal Control over Financial Reporting
GAO-20-480R: Published: May 1, 2020. Publicly Released: May 1, 2020.
Priority Open Recommendations:
GAO-20-548PR: Published: Apr 23, 2020. Publicly Released: Apr 30, 2020.
Explore our Key Issues on Tax Policy and Administration
College Access and Affordability
Enforcement of Tax Laws - High Risk Issue