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Advice to Cyril's new advisor; risk opprobrium for long-term recovery
22nd April 2018 20th April 2018 by [email protected]
CAPE TOWN — Cyril Ramaphosa's new economic advisor, Trudi Makhaya, an expert on big business dominance, must fly in the face of widely-held South African beliefs if she is to fulfil her considerable potential. That's the opinion of independent strategy advisor, Shawn Hagedorn, who says South Africa's currently politically-expedient redistribution chokes off growth in favour of accelerating equality. Somehow the 40-year-old new incumbent will have to confront this debilitating society-wide pretence, aggravated by an isolation mentality born of decades of apartheid sanctions. We still think of ourselves as outliers in the global economy and it becomes a self-fulfilling, guiding belief as we ironically – and ineptly – try and integrate domestically by addressing our vast, racially-based income gaps. With the IMF exhorting us to make broad policy shifts, our transitional and current leaders have so far relied on international investment instead of boosting our global trading capacity. High flying nations, especially developing nations, have over the last 25 years prioritised growth ahead of equality and thrived – the long-term outcome being that the inequality curve suddenly gets pulled up by the growth. A hard nettle to grasp, some would say politically impossible in SA, but the alternative is an enduring flat-lining economy, argues Hagedorn. – Chris Bateman
By Shawn Hagedorn*
Trudi Makhaya's writings and credentials, along with her relative youth, confirm that she is a superb choice to advise President Ramaphosa on fixing the economy. Yet blocking her success is nothing less than the need for the national dialogue to be reconceived.
Shawn Hagedorn
It is obvious to global experts at the IMF and credit agencies that SA requires sweeping policy reforms to achieve even moderate growth. What no one is keen to unpack is how the policies which must be reformed reflect beliefs that unite the ANC, and are largely shared by big business, and other key role players, including most voters. In effect, SA is constituted under unworkable pretenses.
The importance of management diversity and more equitable outcomes is widely accepted. The core difficulty, which must be clear to someone with Makhaya's economic background, is that there are short- and medium-term trade-offs between maximising growth and accelerating equality. Over the long-haul, the two objectives align, whereas in the nearer-term a balance must be shrewdly managed. This has gone badly.
With 1994 being the starting point, the long-term has arrived evidencing that SA's growth has increasingly under performed most emerging economies. It is now equally clear that SA has never been on a path which would lead to a modest level of poverty even by mid century! With her development economics training, Makhaya must dissect this routinely dodged issue.
The world's many high flying nations of the past quarter century prioritised growth ahead of equality, while SA has increasingly favoured the opposite path. Given the nation's long history of the majority being oppressed, this is politically and morally justifiable – but the results are neither. SA's inequality and poverty prevalence are now entrenched at exceedingly high levels as per capita income growth has been basically flat for a decade. IMF forecasts to 2023 indicate more of the same.
Makhaya's appointment was disclosed alongside the announcement that SA will host a major investment conference with the objective of attracting a $100 billion in new investments. Believing foreign investments unlock SA's growth potential is a hold over from the sanctions era. This further highlights the need for a national dialogue reset.
Access more of Jeremy's brilliant cartoon work at jerm.co.za.
Prior to 1994, the economy was designed to benefit a narrow minority and its growth relied heavily on demand for extracted commodities. Thus, a binding constraint was long-term funding commitments for mining and infrastructure projects. The country's all-race democracy now requires the economy cater for a vastly larger population than what SA's considerable resource wealth can underwrite. Meanwhile, prospects for growth in domestic consumption are dim due to over indebted consumers plus few workers are integrated into the faster growing global economy – with tourism being a notable exception.
SA's economy can only sustain high growth by boosting value-added exports. This requires a more refined balance and better coordination between commercially robust policies and politically necessary redistribution. Yet, irrespective of how redistribution efforts are structured, they are taxes. Thus there is a point where over reliance on such measures chokes off growth more than it redistributes income. SA is entering that zone while the percentage of South Africans living at, or only modestly above, a subsistence level has only decreased from about 80% in the early 1990s to around 60% today.
Read also: Reversing SA's disinvestment flood into an inward trickle – Cyril's big challenge
Global investors won't solve SA's growth problems. SA's current rate of fixed investment mobilisation is broadly consistent with its low growth prospects. Economic growth today is largely about technologies having pummeled communication and transport cost thus provoking multitudes of cross border trade opportunities. Most countries are now fixated on international trade as fervently as SA is focused on redistribution. That is, SA operates with a different belief system than the majority of nations which are either wealthy or quickly catching up.
While investors aren't going to solve SA's problems, many will reference how dozens of nations offer far more commercially attractive policy environments. Makhaya must translate such feedback so that SA's policy makers prudently heed the IMF's exhortations for broad policy shifts.
If a foreign company is considering SA as a production centre to serve global consumers, it makes no sense to forego such jobs due to poorly calibrated BEE reflexes. Instead, special dispensations from anti-competitive regulations are required to boost such value-added exports thus reducing poverty and advancing equality.
Read also: Seven virtuous economic goals for Cyril – Alan Hirsch
Makhaya is probably best known for her expertise on competition issues. From a closed economy perspective, her concerns regarding big business dominance in many sectors is logical. As a presidential adviser, she must appreciate that the far greater problem is that SA's economy is too isolated amid a highly integrated global economy. Just as global gorillas, such as Google, often rely on small companies to break into the new markets, SA's giants must get much better at working with SMEs to identify and develop new export channels. Her experience working with angel investors must now inform the policy shifts necessary to transform disconnects and blockages into linkages and growth paths.
That humans became the dominant species traces, in large part, to an ability to form very large, highly adaptive groups. Transcending kinship based groupings typically required a common threat and shared beliefs. Many nations were formed by the confluence of military needs and religious beliefs. SA is not united by kinship, foreign military threats, or a common religion. Nor does SA have neighbours which serve to challenge it commercially. Rather the country is an isolated outlier, whose enemy is its past, amid a highly integrated global economy.
Bagaetsho – thank you for your words of encouragement. We have a lot of work to do to propel our economy to reach its potential and to soar. I am honoured to have been asked to serve the President & our country in my new role as economic advisor to @CyrilRamaphosa #thumamina
— Trudi Makhaya (@trudimakhaya) April 17, 2018
While expectations of a better future for all was SA's cohesion building glue, the country's near and distant past, its current status, and its future are all expressed by the status and prospects of its median 20 year olds. These young adults are poor and poorly educated while their prospects are dreadful. This was not uncommon in other parts of the world in the early 1990s, but it is today.
With her glistening CV and public profile preceding her, Makhaya can engage SA's older leaders as a highly experienced 40 year old black woman fully aware of the human impact of SA's policy shortfalls. As SA's youth expect a fresh national dialogue and policies to surge opportunities, her perspective should prove ideal.
Shawn Hagedorn is an independent strategy adviser. You can follow him on Twitter @shawnhagedorn.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


People of praise celebrated their 4th annevesary with a mass and high tea.
I my mind I thought "how good it will be if someone could train leaders in the Catholic Church." I heard the Lord tell me "Will you do it?" This time I was willing and available.
It was in the year 1996, that the Lord put the call to train and form people. This happened during the ICPE School of Evangelization in Germany. I was a participant.


Nintendo has released their third quarter fiscal earnings report and the results, as expected, aren't pretty.
- They missed their already revised targets for hardware and software sales. They predicted 2.8M Wii U console sold with 19M software units. The actual figures were 2.41M Wii Us sold with 15.96 software units. As recently as a few weeks ago, Nintendo said they expected to sell 9M Wii Us over that period.
As can be seen, it's not all bad news, but the Wii U is obviously underperforming, which should come as a surprise to no one. In response to these figures, Nintendo CEO Satoru Iwata said he'll be taking a 50% pay cut for the next five months, with other executives slicing their salaries by 20-30%. The actual cost savings is a mere drop in the bucket, and the execs will likely be just fine because of their stock options, but it's more of a symbolic gesture, admitting their own wrongdoing. Iwata is not stepping down from his role at Nintendo however, as some have suggested.
The report is a sobering reality check for Nintendo because as recently as a few weeks ago, they were still sticking with their predicted 9M in Wii U sales before they were forced to dramatically slash that forecast ahead of this earnings report. A company that would miss projections that badly would seem to be in need of a corporate shake-up to reassure investors they're getting back on track, but outside of these pay cuts, nothing of the sort has been announced.
I've already prescribed a few immediate remedies for Nintendo's woes that might not solve all their problems, but would at least give their fans and investors confidence they're moving in the right direction. So far, none have come to fruition, unsurprisingly.
Nintendo can weather this Wii U storm as they have before, but with the video game landscape growing increasingly crowded between Microsoft and Sony's huge-selling next-gen systems, and new future entries from Steam, Oculus Rift and even Amazon, they're going to have to find a way to stay relevant, and do so rather quickly.
Pay cuts are a nice gesture, but are only that, a gesture. It's time for Nintendo to go to work and solve their very real problems they can no longer deny exist.


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Assault on Precinct 13 (en España Asalto a la comisaría del distrito 13) es una película estadounidense de 1976 escrita, dirigida y editada por John Carpenter. Está protagonizada por Austin Stoker como un oficial de policía que defiende una comisaría frente al ataque de una pandilla de criminales, y Darwin Joston como un asesino convicto que lo ayuda. Laurie Zimmer y Tony Burton coprotagonizan la cinta.

Se trata del segundo largometraje dirigido por Carpenter y en la actualidad está considerado un título de culto que ofrece guiños a las películas Río Bravo, dirigida por Howard Hawks en 1959, y a Night of the Living Dead (La noche de los muertos vivientes) dirigida por George A. Romero en 1968. Es el top 23 de las 100 mejores películas de acción de todos los tiempos por GQ.

Sinopsis

La historia se sitúa en una comisaría situada en Los Ángeles. Un policía se dirige al lugar para supervisar el traslado de los últimos efectivos y materiales que quedan allí, ya que la misma está por cesar sus operaciones. A pesar de todo un camión de prisioneros pide asistencia para pasar allí la noche ya que uno de los prisioneros está gravemente enfermo. En el furgón viaja también un criminal, apodado Napoleón Wilson, un hombre de fuerte carácter dotado de una personalidad irónica y perspicaz.

A esta situación se añade la de un padre vengativo, que ha matado a un miembro de un grupo de pandilleros local por matar a su hija pequeña, lo que hace que sus compañeros inicien la persecución del hombre que refugia en la comisaría. En su interior quedan unos pocos agentes de policía, los reclusos y unas pocas municiones. Ante la amenaza procedente del exterior, ya que los pandilleros no se detendrán ante nada ni nadie con tal de vengar a uno de los suyos, quienes permanecen en el interior de la comisaría deberán hacer causa común. De este modo los roles, entre los policías y criminales que están en la comisaría del distrito, cambian debiendo unirse para sobrevivir a la amenaza que les aguarda.

Reparto
 Austin Stoker - Ethan Bishop
 Darwin Joston - Napoleón Wilson
 Laurie Zimmer - Leigh
 Martin West - Lawson
 Tony Burton - Wells
 Charles Cyphers - Oficial Starker
 Nancy Loomis - Julie
 Henry Brandon - Chaney
 Kim Richards - Kathy
 Peter Bruni - Vendedor de helados
 John J. Fox - Warden
 Frank Doubleday - Pandillero jefe

Producción
El director John Carpenter fue contratado por J. Stein Kaplan para hacer una película de explotación con menos de 100.000 dólares de presupuesto pero con total control creativo. Carpenter escribió The Anderson Alamo, inspirado en el wéstern de Howard Hawks Rio Bravo y en la película de horror de George A. Romero Night of the Living Dead. Pese a la controversia generada por su violencia explícita, especialmente en la escena en la que una pequeña niña es asesinada de un tiro en el pecho, la película recibió la clasificación R y se estrenó en los Estados Unidos el 3 de noviembre de 1976.

La película sirvió al realizador neoyorquino para darse a conocer debido a su notable éxito de taquilla y que definió su carrera dentro del género fantástico de serie B. Aunque sea considerado una película de culto, demuestra la capacidad que tiene el director para crear una atmósfera tensa que sería una constante en títulos posteriores, con el añadido de la banda sonora que hace que el espectador entre fácilmente en el ambiente. Los actores son la mayoría desconocidos como Austin Stoker, el malogrado Darwin Jonston o Laurie Zimmer quien no volvió a trabajar en el cine.

Recepción
Asalto a la comisaría del distrito 13  logró inicialmente críticas diversas y números poco impresionantes en taquilla. Sin embargo, cuando se estrenó en 1977 en el Festival de Cine de Londres recibió una excelente crítica por parte del director del festival, Ken Wlaschin, lo que la llevó a ganar mucha popularidad en el resto de Europa. Con los años se convirtió en una película de culto, siendo considerada una de las mejores películas en toda la carrera de Carpenter, a pesar del escaso presupuesto. Una nueva versión fue estrenada en el año 2005, dirigida por Jean-François Richet y protagonizado por Ethan Hawke y Laurence Fishburne.

Referencias

Enlaces externos

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


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31st December
A chilly and uneventful end to the year at the Bill where 4 Red-throated Divers passed through on the sea, 40 Common Scoter were still settled offshore and singles of Redwing and Chiffchaff were the only birds of note on the land.
Late news for yesterday: a few extras/revised numbers from Portland Harbour included 7 Pale-bellied Brent Geese, 6 Black-necked Grebes, 5 Great Northern Divers, a Black-throated Diver and a Red-necked Grebe.
After bucket-loads more rain overnight today was altogether quieter although remained dreary throughout. At Portland Harbour the Black-necked Grebe group increased again to 5; 2 Slavonian Grebes, a Great Northern Diver and a Pale-bellied Brent Goose were also present there. The rest of the news came from the Bill where there were 5 Purple Sandpipers, 35 Common Scoter were settled offshore and 6 Red-throated Divers and a Great Skua passed through on the sea.
Persistent and at times really heavy rain, together with a blasting easterly wind, made the day all but unbirdable. The only report of any interest was of 50 Common Scoter settled off the Bill.
With a chilly north-easterly getting established 22 Red-throated Divers headed away down-Channel past the Bill but the only other reports from there were of at least 30 Common Scoter still settled offshore and the wintering Chiffchaff still lurking in the Obs garden. In Portland Harbour a second Black-necked Grebe joined the bird already present and 3 Great Northern Divers, a Black-throated Diver and a Velvet Scoter were still in residence.
yesterday's Bar-tailed Godwits - Ferrybridge, 26th December 2009 © Pete Saunders
A bright and blustery day. The customary mid-winter build up in seabird numbers seems to be gathering pace off the Bill where in recent days there have been 5-10000 auks (mainly Razorbills), 2-300 Kittiwakes, 1-200 Gannets and good numbers of Common Gulls and large gulls feeding offshore; today the wintering Common Scoter flock there again numbered around 40. The only other reports received were of 17 Lapwings, 4 Purple Sandpipers and 3 Turnstones at the Bill.
Late news for yesterday: 4 Bar-tailed Godwits were at Ferrybridge.
Oystercatcher - Ferrybridge, 25th December 2009 © Pete Saunders
A few interesting reports today, notably of 2 Great Skuas off the Bill and a Velvet Scoter in Portland Harbour. More routine fare included 25 Common Scoter still settled off the Bill and singles of Black-throated Diver and Black-necked Grebe in Portland Harbour.
No reports received today.
Still pretty dreary but quite a bit milder today. The first Short-eared Owl for several weeks was a minor surprise at the Bill but the rest of the day's sightings were fairly routine: a Red-throated Diver through on the sea at the Bill, the Goosander and 9 Pale-bellied Brent Geese at Ferrybridge and 2 Great Northern Divers and singles of Black-throated Diver, Black-necked Grebe and Slavonian Grebe in Portland Harbour.
Black Redstart - Fortuneswell, 23rd December 2009 © Emma Cockburn
23rd December
A really miserable dreary, showery and chilly day. The only reports were of plenty of Mediterranean Gulls still feeding off the Bill, singles of Red-throated Diver and Great Northern Diver passing through on the sea there, a Blackcap visiting a garden at Fortuneswell and singles of Black Redstart at the Bill, near Royal Manor School and at Fortuneswell.
22nd December
A snow-free Portland attracted a few more cold weather refugees today, with the Bill area returning totals of 80 Linnets, 61 Song Thrushes, 50 Skylarks, 40 Chaffinches, 34 Golden Plovers and a Snipe along with regular winter fare that included 2 Reed Buntings and singles of Purple Sandpiper, Turnstone and Chiffchaff; elsewhere there were 25 Chaffinches and a Fieldfare at Southwell. The only reports from the sea there were of 3 passing Red-throated Divers.
Dreary this morning with rain setting in before midday. All the coverage was of the Bill area, where there were 70 Linnets, 50 Skylarks, 40 Chaffinches, 31 Song Thrushes, 4 Purple Sandpipers, 2 Chiffchaffs and a Black Redstart on the land, a Little Egret flew north overhead, more than 50 Mediterranean Gulls were feeding offshore and 3 Red-throated Divers and a Black-throated Diver passed by on the sea.
Yesterday's group of Bottle-nosed Dolphins were off the Bill again early in the morning before heading away west into Lyme Bay.
Bottle-nosed Dolphins - Portland Bill, 20th December 2009 © Martin Cade
Still clear and chilly but on the bird front a good deal quieter than yesterday. The Bill Mediterranean Gull record was broken again with a total of at least 138 feeding offshore during the morning; 2 Red-throated Divers also passed by on the sea. The only reports of note from the land were of singles of Golden Plover and Chiffchaff at the Bill.
A party of about a dozen Bottle-nosed Dolphins lingered off East Cliffs at the Bill during the morning.
Yesterday's Black-tailed Godwit - Ferrybridge, 18th December 2009 © Pete Saunders
An almost unbreakable layer of ice on the Obs garden ponds was testament to how cold it had got overnight but the day itself was a good deal more pleasant than yesterday as the blasting north-east wind had dropped right away. The only signs of cold weather movement at the Bill involved an increase in Song Thrush numbers to at least 37, 9 Redwings and a Lapwing also on the ground and 5 Teal through on the sea. Other reports from there included the usual Common Scoter flock settled offshore (35 or so today), plenty of Mediterranean Gulls still feeding offshore and 19 Red-throated Divers through on the sea.
Late news for the last few days: yesterday 6 Snipe flew north at Ferrybridge, a lone Black-tailed Godwit was settled there briefly and 2 Great Northern Divers were in Portland Harbour, whilst the day before there were 1500 Dark-bellied Brent Geese, 25 Pale-bellied Brents, 2 Black Brants, 2 Mallard and the Goosander at Ferrybridge.
Some of the trickle of Lapwings arriving in off the sea - Portland Bill, 18th December 2009 © Martin Cade
On another raw day there were a few signs of cold weather movement at the Bill, where Skylarks and Song Thrushes increased to 47 and 20 respectively, 4 Redwings were new arrivals, 21 Lapwings and a Snipe passed over heading north and singles of Little Egret, Teal and Tufted Duck passed by on the sea. The rest of the sightings there were much as in recent days: wintering singles of Water Rail and Chiffchaff on the land, 40 Common Scoter settled offshore, at least 70 Mediterranean Gulls feeding offshore and 2 Red-throated Divers passing by on the sea.
The highlight of the day at the Bill was a record count of 125 Mediterranean Gulls feeding offshore - the highest total yet recorded there; 35 Common Scoter were also still settled offshore and 11 Brent Geese and 8 Red-throated Divers also passed by on the sea. On the land there were still hints of late passage (or maybe even the beginnings of cold weather movement?) at the Bill where a few small parties of Goldfinches and Chaffinches passed overhead and 7 Skylarks headed north; 2 Reed Buntings, a Snipe and a Chiffchaff were the best of the sightings on the ground there.
Just a few reports from the Bill area today: 50 Linnets, 25 Chaffinches, 10 Song Thrushes, 2 Redwings, a Ringed Plover, a Golden Plover and a Black Redstart on the land, 25 Common Scoter settled offshore and 4 Red-throated Divers through on the sea.
Dreary, damp and feeling increasingly cold today. Most of the reports were from the Bill where there were 2 Redwings and 2 Chiffchaffs on the land, 4 Red-throated Divers passed through on the sea and the Common Scoter flock offshore had increased to 38. Elsewhere the Goosander was still at Ferrybridge.
Another repeat of recent days. Judging by the frequency with which new finches - particularly Greenfinches and Goldfinches - are turning up in the Obs garden mist-nets there's still some late movement going on although it's certainly become less apparent overhead now that the breeze is firmly in the east. Finches aside, the only obviously new arrivals at the Bill were a couple of Redwings and a Snipe; winterers there included 2 Purple Sandpipers, a Chiffchaff and a Reed Bunting, whilst 6 passing Red-throated Divers were the only birds of note on the sea. The only other report was of the first Black-necked Grebe of the winter in Portland Harbour.
More of the same today: the Goosander was again at Ferrybridge, 2 Redwings and a Black Redstart were at the Bill where a few more Goldfinches and Chaffinches trickled through overhead, the Common Scoter flock off the Bill increased to 26 and 18 'extra' Common Scoter, 7 Red-throated Divers and a Great Northern Diver passed through off the Bill.
Goldfinch - Portland Bill, 12th December 2009 © Martin Cade
...Goldfinch passage has been a conspicuous feature of late and, since we haven't covered the species in detail before, we've been having a closer than usual look at the ones that we've caught. Goldfinches are supposed to be 'easy' to age and sex - or at least that's what visiting ringers keep telling us - but to be honest we've always found that troublesome birds crop up alarmingly regularly. We'll leave the difficult bits until another day and just start by having a look at some fairly straightforward ageing. Before wear starts to become an issue later in the winter most birds can be aged by having a good look at the wing and tail. Most birds of the year retain some unmoulted juvenile outer greater coverts which are tipped buffish-white and are quite a bit duller black than the corresponding glossy black feathers on an adult:
Adult and juvenile tails are usually quite different. Although there's some variation in the pattern of the white tips, adult tail feathers are conspicuously rounded and fresh:
Contrast these adult tails with a completely juvenile tail where all the feathers are pointed and already getting quite worn:
Many juveniles replace some tail feathers in the post-juvenile moult so tails with two generations of feathers are often seen. This bird is replacing (still only half-grown in mid-December) the outer feathers:
...and this bird has replaced the central pair and the outer pair:
And finally it's worth having a look at the tertials as some/all of these may be replaced in the post-juvenile moult. The colour of the pale tips to these feathers varies from white to rufous-buff (seemingly not an age related difference) but there's often a moult limit visible - between duller, worn juvenile feathers and glossier, fresh adult feathers - within the tertials or, if they've all been replaced, between the tertials and the secondaries. The juvenile below has replaced five tertials but retained the upper left feather:
The chilly easterly breeze was again noticeable and new arrivals included a Blackcap at the Obs and another light trickle of Goldfinches and Chaffinches overhead. Single wintering Chiffchaffs were at the Bill and Southwell, whilst odds and ends on the sea at the Bill included 18 Common Scoter settled offshore and 4 each of Red-throated Diver and Brent Goose passing through.
A bit disappointing today with the shift in wind direction into the north-east not really producing much in the way of new arrivals. There were a few new finches, particularly Goldfinches and Chaffinches, dropping in but there wasn't the volume of overhead passage that has been such a feature of the fine mornings in recent weeks; a single Redpoll over the Bill was the only noteworthy bird on the land. The only other reports were of the Goosander again at Ferrybridge, 26 Common Scoter settled off the Bill and 3 Red-throated Divers, a Brent Goose and 13 more Common Scoter passing through off the Bill.
Clear, sunny and feeling positively balmy by the afternoon. Overhead passage got going again today, with 290 Goldfinches, 40 Chaffinches and 5 Siskins heading south over the Bill. There didn't appear to be much in the way of new arrivals on the ground, but winterers included 2 Common Buzzards, 2 Reed Buntings and a Chiffchaff at the Bill and 2 Common Buzzards, 2 Chiffchaffs and a Blackcap at Penn's Weare. The only reports from the sea were of the 16 Common Scoter settled off the Bill and a single Red-throated Diver passing by there.
A lone Bottle-nosed Dolphin headed north off the East Cliffs at the Bill during the morning.
A Red Admiral was on the wing at Penn's Weare.
The only moths attracted to the Obs garden traps overnight were a typical mid-winter trio of Light Brown Apple Moth, Dark Chestnut and Satellite.
Cetti's Warbler, Goosander and Great Northern Diver - Portland Bill, Ferrybridge and Portland Harbour, 9th December 2009 © Martin Cade (Cetti's Warbler and Goosander) and Pete Saunders (Great Northern Diver)
A pleasantly mild and still day. With misty low cloud coming and going through the morning the only birds on the move overhead were a few small flocks of Goldfinches at the Bill. The quieter conditions allowed for more coverage on the ground, with the pick of the sightings being 8 Purple Sandpipers, 4 Reed Buntings and singles of Black Redstart, Cetti's Warbler, Chiffchaff and Brambling at the Bill, 2 Firecrests and a Chiffchaff at Pennsylvania Castle, 2 Chiffchaffs at the Grove and single Siskins at Southwell and Easton. On the sea, 8 Red-throated Divers passed through off the Bill, 3 Great Northern Divers were in Portland Harbour and a Goosander was again at Ferrybridge.
Late news for yesterday: 11 Pale-bellied Brent Geese and 2 Goosanders were at Ferrybridge.
Shag - Portland Bill, 8th December 2009 © Martin Cade
A few hours fair weather before more rain set in saw yet more late movement overhead (...when is it going to stop?), with 420 Goldfinches, 40 Chaffinches, 15 Linnets, 11 Greenfinches and a Reed Bunting heading south over the Bill; also there, the wintering flock of Linnets had increased a little to 60, and 20 Skylarks were still present. The other reports all concerned seawatching at the Bill, where 9 Red-throated Divers and a Black-throated Diver passed by and 20 Common Scoter were settled offshore.
Late news for yesterday: the Goosander was again at Ferrybridge during the afternoon.
Two more photos from the last few days: Goosander and Great Northern Diver - Ferrybridge, December 2009 © Pete Saunders
On a wet and windy day the only reports were of the 15 Common Scoter still settled off the Bill, 2 Red-throated Divers and a Balearic Shearwater passing through on the sea there and 4 Great Northern Divers in Portland Harbour.
Late news for the last few days: the Goosander has been an almost daily early morning visitor at Ferrybridge until at least yesterday (6th); also yesterday, 2 Great Skuas were over Chesil Beach just to the north-west of Ferrybridge, whilst on Saturday (5th) an Arctic Skua passed through at Ferrybridge and a Grey Phalarope was at Chesil Cove.
The sea again provided most of the interest today, with a Great Skua lingering off Chesil Cove, 3 Red-throated Divers, a Black-throated Diver, a Balearic Shearwater, a Long-tailed Duck and a Great Skua through off the Bill and 15 Common Scoter still settled off the Bill. Odds and ends on the land at the Bill included 5 Purple Sandpipers, 2 Grey Partridges, 2 Turnstones and a Rook.
Just a handful of sightings today, all from the sea at the Bill: the usual 15 Common Scoter settled offshore, along with another 25 Common Scoter, 3 Red-throated Divers, 2 Black-throated Divers and 2 Red-breasted Mergansers passing by.
A Reed Bunting from earlier in the week - Portland Bill, 1st December 2009 © Martin Cade
A fair, quite calm morning gave way to a yet another wet afternoon. A few late migrants were again on the move, with 215 Goldfinches, 50 Wood Pigeons, 50 Chaffinches, 15 Greenfinches, a Brambling, a Redpoll and a Reed Bunting passing over at the Bill and another 2 Redpolls passing over at Reap Lane; a handful of new Blackbirds and Song Thrushes were also in evidence, whilst long-stayers at the Bill included 50 Linnets and singles of Black Redstart and Chiffchaff. The sea was also still worth a look, with 18 Mediterranean Gulls, 15 Red-throated Divers, a Great Northern Diver and an Eider passing through off the Bill where the settled flock of 15 Common Scoter were also still present.
A single Rusty-dot Pearl was one of only two moths trapped overnight at the Obs.
3rd December
Just a handful of sightings - all from the Bill - from the few folk venturing out in the field today: another 180 Goldfinches leaving to the south overhead, a Black Redstart still there, 15 Common Scoter still settled offshore and 2 Little Gulls and a Red-throated Diver through on the sea.
A notice from the bookshop: because of an order cancellation we have a spare copy of the recently-published Volume 14 of The Handbook of the Birds of The World; this is available at £130 to Observatory members or £140 to non-members (RRP is £180). First come, first served.
2nd December
A day of frequent heavy showers. Once again all the reports were from the Bill: 41 Common Scoter (with another 15 settled offshore), 7 Red-throated Divers, a Black-throated Diver and a Great Northern Diver passed through on the sea and singles of Redwing and Chiffchaff were on the land.
1st December
The first morning of relatively quiet weather for what seems like an age produced a trickle of late movement on land and sea. All the reports were from the Bill area, where there were 50 Chaffinches, 25 Blackbirds, 10 Song Thrushes, 8 Siskins, 4 Redwings, 4 Reed Buntings, 3 Redpolls, 2 Bramblings, 2 Black Redstarts and a Chiffchaff on/overhead on the land and 29 Common Scoter, 10 Mediterranean Gulls, 9 Brent Geese, 7 Red-throated Divers, 2 Red-breasted Mergansers and a Wigeon passed through on the sea.
Goosander - Ferrybridge, 30th November 2009 © Pete Saunders
...and a few more Leach's Petrels from yesterday. Colin White let us have a nice big sea/little bird photo from Chesil Cove:
...and from Ken Parker a couple more images from Portland Harbour:
...and finally, a bit of more detail on the ageing of these birds. Today we've had a look back through the photos that we've taken or been sent and every one of nearly 40 individuals appears to be an adult (or at least none are juveniles); most are clearly in active wing moult and close examination of the few that are at first glance in fresher plumage show that these too exhibit clear signs of a moult contrast in the wing (without examination in the hand we can't be sure but these birds give the appearance of being in suspended/arrested moult as the flight feathers all appear to be of the same length; perhaps some of these birds are older immatures?). This morning we were able to have a good look at the bird found dead at Portland Harbour yesterday; the mixture of new and old feathers in all the main tracts on the wing of this adult in active moult shows up very nicely:
...and as a matter of interest this bird weighed 34.2 gms (according to BWP the usual weight of a healthy Leach's is 40-50 gms)
...and just as quickly as they arrived so they all vanished! The overnight switch to a chilly north wind put paid to virtually all of the storm-blown seabirds, with not a single Leach's Petrel seen anywhere today; the only quality birds that did remain were 2 Grey Phalaropes at Hallelujah Bay. Seawatching at the Bill did produce 22 Common Scoter, 6 Dark-bellied Brent Geese, 6 Pale-bellied Brent Geese, 5 Red-throated Divers, a Great Northern Diver, a Pintail, a Red-breasted Merganser and a Curlew, whilst a small overhead movement of late migrants there included 4 Redwings, a Fieldfare and a trickle of Chaffinches and Goldfinches; 12 Blackbirds and 2 Song Thrushes were also new arrivals at Southwell. The rest of the day's news concerned a Goosander at Ferrybridge (and later in Portland Harbour), 3 Great Northern Divers and 2 Slavonian Grebes in Portland Harbour and 6 Purple Sandpipers and the Cetti's Warbler still at the Bill.
Late news for yesterday: we forgot to mention a Barn Owl beside the Beach Road in the small hours of the morning.
Sooty Shearwater and Leach's Petrels - Portland Bill and Portland Harbour, 29th November 2009 © Martin Cade
...and after uploading the photos above we received a few more from other observers fortunate enough to be out in the field today. One of Ken Tucker's photos shows a bird battling over Chesil:
...whilst James Phillips sent through some more photos from Portland Harbour that include a bird found dead on the tideline:
A day that will certainly feature in the annals of Portland seawatching - and it all started so quietly. After a morning that produced little more than half a dozen Leach's Petrels and a Sooty Shearwater off the Bill a major wreck of Leach's suddenly developed around midday and by dusk around 600 had passed both the Bill and Chesil Cove (600 were estimated at the Cove and 582 were counted by clicker at the Bill by one observer who certainly didn't get on to all the birds that passed there). The rest of the day's tally at these and the other watchpoints included: 1400 Kittiwakes, 7 Great Skuas, 2 Great Northern Divers, 2 Pomarine Skuas, 2 Little Auks, an Arctic Skua and a Grey Phalarope through off the Bill, 4 Grey Phalaropes, 2 Red-throated Divers, 5 Little Gulls, a Balearic Shearwater, a Great Skua, an Arctic Skua and a Little Auk through at Chesil Cove and at least 50 Leach's Petrels through Portland Harbour/Ferrybridge.
Goosander and dead Puffin - Portland Harbour and Chesil Beach, 28th November 2009 © Bob Ford (Goosander) and Martin Cade (Puffin)
...and one of the dead Gannets on Chesil was ringed. If the ringer of this bird happens to be taking a look at the site do let us know where you originally ringed it!:
A day of extreme variations in the weather, with the gale force westerlies of dawn giving way to flat calm conditions by midday before torrents of rain set in during the afternoon. Considering the circumstances the bird list included quite a bit of quality: 4 Redshank, 2 Leach's Petrels and 2 Great Skuas passed through at Chesil Cove where 2 Grey Phalaropes were still lingering and a Black Redstart was still present, 2 Great Northern Divers, a Leach's Petrel and a Goosander were in Portland Harbour, a Balearic Shearwater passed through off the Bill and another 250 Goldfinches headed south overhead at the Bill. Finally, a check of the tideline debris at Chesil Cove revealed a few corpses, including 7 Gannets and a Puffin.
Although it remained windy with frequent showers running along the Channel there was less of note on the sea today: 2 Grey Phalaropes and a Little Gull remained at Chesil Cove and 2 Red-throated Divers and a Red-breasted Merganser passed through off the Bill. The only other news was of another 400 Goldfinches heading south over the Bill.
Goldfinches still on the move - Portland Bill, 26th November 2009 © Martin Cade
Leach's Petrels again provided the main rarity interest, with 3 through at Chesil Cove and another through off the Bill; sea interest otherwise dwindled a little and the only other sightings of note concerned 3 Grey Phalaropes, a Great Crested Grebe and a Little Gull at Chesil Cove and 2 Great Northern Divers at Portland Harbour. Another 900 Goldfinches headed south at the Bill, where a few Chaffinches and singles of Brambling and Reed Bunting also passed over.
Leach's Petrel and Razorbills - Portland Harbour, 25th November 2009 © Martin Cade
...and Colin White has kindly passed us more photos from Chesil Cove and Portland Harbour from recent days. Leach's Petrel at the Cove yesterday (24th):
...Great Skua at the Cove on Sunday (22nd):
...and one of the two Grey Phalaropes in the Harbour on Sunday (22nd):
Yet another rough day saw plenty more attention given to the sea. Chesil Cove produced 5 Leach's Petrels, a Great Northern Diver, a Grey Phalarope and a Little Gull, singles of Red-necked Grebe, Leach's Petrel, Storm Petrel and Great Skua passed though off the Bill, a Leach's Petrel passed through at Ferrybridge and 5 Great Northern Divers, a Slavonian Grebe, a Leach's Petrel, a Gannet and a Kittiwake were in Portland Harbour. On the land, Goldfinches were again on the move at the Bill, where just over 1000 headed south through the morning; a Merlin, a Brambling and a handful of Chaffinches, Greenfinches and Linnets also tagged along.
Late news for yesterday: 8 Great Northern Divers and 4 Goosander were at Portland Harbour.
Black Redstart - Portland Bill, 24th November 2009 © Martin Cade
With the strength of the wind having eased just a little most of today's interest on the sea involved birds actually on the move as opposed to lingering/wrecked. Four Leach's Petrels and 2 Grey Phalaropes passed though at Chesil Cove and 200 Kittiwakes, 3 Leach's Petrels, 2 Balearic Shearwaters, a Black-throated Diver and a Great Northern Diver passed through off the Bill. Considering the conditions it was a surprise that another 295 Goldfinches headed south at the Bill; singles of Redwing, Black Redstart and Firecrest were also there, whilst elsewhere at least 1 of the Black Brants was again at Ferrybridge and 2 Great Northern Divers were in Portland Harbour.
Leach's Petrel - Portland Harbour, 23rd November 2009 © Martin Cade
...the photos above were taken in really lousy conditions during the morning. When we popped back to the harbour in slightly better weather during the afternoon another Leach's appeared briefly as it tried to make its way over Chesil Beach to Lyme Bay (it got as far as the Sailing Academy roundabout but chickened out and whizzed back into the harbour):
...both these birds appear to be ragged adults (juveniles ought to be in very fresh plumage at this time of year and we'd guess that non-breeding sub-adults ought to be further advanced with their wing moult than this). The limited photographic evidence available seems to hint at the late autumn/winter influxes of recent years having involved birds of different age classes: the early November 2005 wreck related to fresh-plumaged juveniles, whereas the early December 2007 wreck and this years influx relate to adults. And finally, one of the handful of Kittiwakes battling through the harbour this afternoon:
The constant foul conditions are certainly taking their toll on the smaller seabirds, with Leach's Petrels and Grey Phalaropes in particular being wrecked in some numbers now. Today's mixture of very strong westerlies and frequent heavy showers has produced 3 Grey Phalaropes, 2 Leach's Petrels and 2 Great Skuas at Chesil Cove, 5 Kittiwakes, 4 Leach's Petrels, 2 Great Northern Divers and a Little Gull at Portland Harbour and 2 Leach's Petrels at Ferrybridge.
Pale-bellied Brent Goose and Black Brant - Ferrybridge, 22nd November 2009 © Pete Saunders
22nd November
More wind and frequent very heavy showers today. Chesil Cove got plenty of attention and returned totals of 4 Grey Phalaropes, 3 Great Skuas, 2 Little Gulls, a Black-throated Diver, a Great Northern Diver and a Leach's Petrel; 2 of the Grey Phalaropes were also settled in Portland Harbour for a while during the afternoon. Elsewhere there were 600 Dark-bellied Brent Geese, 27 Pale-bellied Brents, 2 Black Brants, a Merlin and a Kittiwake at Ferrybridge, 2 Black Redstarts at the Bill and another Black Redstart at Chiswell.
21st November
A not too bad morning gave way to a truly shocking afternoon of constant driving rain. After a relatively still night when Redwings could be heard passing over in quantity there was some minor hope that there might be a few new arrivals on the land but 2 Bramblings and a single Redwing were just about the only birds of note at the Bill, where a Purple Sandpiper, a Cetti's Warbler, a Chiffchaff and a Firecrest were still present. The sea was well-watched and came up with 19 Mediterranean Gulls, 2 Great Skuas, a Great Northern Diver and a Sooty Shearwater passing the Bill and 50 Mediterranean Gulls, 2 Shelduck and a Black-throated Diver settled/passing at Chesil Cove. The only other news was of a typical selection, including 76 Mediterranean Gulls, 10 Pale-bellied Brent Geese, 3 Bar-tailed Godwits and a Black Brant, from Ferrybridge:
Firecrest - Foundry Close, 20th November 2009 © Martin Cade
After a wet, windy night and dreary dawn the day itself became progressively brighter. Unfortunately quality birds were hard to come by, with little more than singles of Firecrest at the Obs and Foundry Close, single Chiffchaffs at five sites around the centre and south of the island and a lone Red-throated Diver passing through off the Bill.
Wren - Pennsylvania Castle, 19th November 2009 © Martin Cade
The strength of the wind has been an unrelenting feature of recent days although today was actually so pleasantly mild and sunny as to make it quite birdable in a few sheltered spots on the land; that said, the only noteworthy reports from there were of singles of Cetti's Warbler, Chiffchaff and Firecrest still at the Bill, a continuing light southward passage of Goldfinches overhead there and 2 each of Chiffchaff and Firecrest still at Pennsylvania Castle. From the sea there was news of singles of Grey Phalarope at Chesil Cove and Arctic Skua over Ferrybridge; 2 of the Black Brants were also again at Ferrybridge.
Given the strength of the wind we weren't expecting much reward from the Obs garden moth-traps but 2 Rusty-dot Pearl did provide some minor immigrant interest amongst the few residents (Feathered Ranunculus, Lunar Underwing and Beaded Chestnut) still on the wing.
Red-throated Diver and Grey Phalarope - Ferrybridge, 18th November 2009 © Pete Saunders
Another windy day. At the seawatch spots there were 2 Little Gulls and a Leach's Petrel at Chesil Cove and 3 Balearic Shearwaters at the Bill, whilst elsewhere a Grey Phalarope dropped in briefly at Ferrybridge, where there were also 1380 Dark-bellied Brent Geese, 50 Mediterranean Gulls, 20 Pale-bellied Brents and 2 Black Brants; 2 Red-throated Divers also passed overhead there. The only other reports were of 3 Great Northern Divers and a Slavonian Grebe in Portland Harbour.
Despite it remaining somewhat windier than expected there was quite a bit of passage overhead today, with 1000 Wood Pigeons, 550 Goldfinches, 150 Chaffinches, 50 Greenfinches, 5 Bramblings and 2 Siskins leaving to the south at the Bill. On the ground a couple of new Blackcaps dropped in at the Bill, where long-stayers still present included 2 Firecrests, a Water Rail, a Cetti's Warbler and a Chiffchaff. The only news from elsewhere was of 800 Dark-bellied Brent Geese, 80 Mediterranean Gulls, 18 Pale-bellied Brents, 7 Mute Swans and 3 Black Brants at Ferrybridge.
A single Silver Y was the only immigrant in the Obs garden moth-traps this morning.
Great Skua and Little Gull - Ferrybridge, 16th November 2009 © Pete Saunders
...the Great Skuas in recent days have been a mixture of moulting adults (today's bird and two of the individuals in the photos posted yesterday) and fresh-plumaged juveniles (the other individual in yesterday's photos). Although it gets far less coverage than, for example, the traditional hotspots at Chesil Cove and the Bill, Ferrybridge can be a really rewarding 'seawatch' venue in very stormy conditions. Watches at high tide generally provide closer views of birds passing between Portland Harbour and Lyme Bay but, as Pete's photograph below of one of the Leach's Petrels on Saturday shows, it's certainly still worth checking at low tide (we've inset an enlargement of the petrel - you can just make it out above the right hand end of the distant Brent Goose flock on the wider frame):
With the wind having freshened again all the news was from the sea: 4 Little Gulls, a Great Northern Diver and a Great Skua at Chesil Cove, a Little Auk through at Portland Harbour (with 2 Great Northern Divers and a Red-throated Diver settled there) and singles of Great Skua and Little Gull through at Ferrybridge (with 1100 Dark-bellied Brent Geese, 16 Pale-bellied Brents, a Black Brant and 40 Mediterranean Gulls settled there).
Four Rusty-dot Pearl and a Rush Veneer provided some minor immigrant interest in the Obs garden moth-traps this morning.
A few photographs from yesterday's seawatching: Leach's Petrel, Grey Phalarope and Great Skuas - Chesil Cove and Ferrybridge, 14th November 2009 © Colin White (Leach's Petrel and top Great Skua) and Pete Saunders (Grey Phalarope and bottom two Great Skuas)
After yesterday's wild weather.relative normality returned today. The sea still provided most of the day's interest, with 2 Balearic Shearwaters, 2 Great Skuas and a single Leach's Petrel passing through off the Bill, from where there was also a report of a Little Auk settled offshore during the morning; Chesil Cove produced 2 Little Gulls and singles of Balearic Shearwater and Red-breasted Merganser, and singles of Black-throated and Great Northern Divers were in Portland Harbour. On the land the most conspicuous feature was a steady passage of Goldfinches - totalling 720 birds - heading south over the Bill through the morning; singles of Merlin, Purple Sandpiper, Cetti's Warbler, Firecrest and Reed Bunting were the best of the odds and ends on the ground there.
What a difference a day makes: yesterday dawned absolutely flat calm but, following an increasingly rough night, today dawned with the wind gusting well towards 70 mph. Inevitably all the reports were from the sea, with 5 Great Skuas, a Leach's Petrel (and another brief/distant petrel sp) and a Red-breasted Merganser passing through off the Bill, 6 Little Gulls, 4 Great Skuas, a Leach's Petrel, a Manx Shearwater and a Grey Phalarope passing Chesil Cove and 5 Great Skuas, 3 Leach's Petrels, a Grey Phalarope and a Little Gull through at Ferrybridge.
Poor weather and few reports again today: 6 Fieldfares, 2 Water Rails, a Black Redstart and a Chiffchaff at the Bill, a Woodcock at Kingbarrow Quarry and 17 Common Scoter and a single Red-throated Diver through on the sea at the Bill.
Singles of Rush Veneer, Rusty-dot Pearl, Dark Sword Grass and Silver Y were the only immigrants in the Obs garden moth-traps this morning.
In increasingly miserable conditions there was little in the way of quantity or quality today. The Bill area produced 4 Purple Sandpipers, 2 Chiffchaffs, a Water Rail, a Woodcock, a Swallow, the Cetti's Warbler and a Firecrest on the land and 9 Common Scoter, 2 Fulmars (the first for several weeks), a Great Northern Diver and a Red-breasted Merganser on the sea, whilst at Ferrybridge there were 450 Brent Geese, 36 Mediterranean Gulls, 3 Mallard and a Merlin.
Red Admiral and Painted Lady were both still on the wing today.
Immigrants in the Obs garden moth-traps this morning: 3 Silver Y and singles of Diamond-back Moth and Rusty-dot Pearl.
Some more photos from a couple of days ago: the putative Siberian Chiffchaff and Black Redstart - Southwell School and Portland Bill, 9th November 2009 © Pete Saunders (Siberian Chiffchaff) and Dick Senior (Black Redstart)
Poor reward again today with the continuing south-easterlies failing to come up with the goods. All the news was from the Bill area/Southwell, where there were 30 Blackbirds, 12 Redwings, 10 Song Thrushes, 3 Fieldfares, 3 Purple Sandpipers, 3 Chiffchaffs, 2 Firecrests, a Little Egret, the Cetti's Warbler, a Blackcap, a Brambling, a Siskin, a Redpoll and a Reed Bunting on the land and a Brent Goose passed by on the sea.
Immigrants in the Obs garden moth-traps this morning: 5 Silver Y, 2 Dark Sword Grass and a Rusty-dot Pearl; as it's getting late in the season we may as well also mention the other species still on the wing and caught during the last couple of nights: Common Marbled Carpet, Double-striped Pug, Red-green Carpet, Large Yellow Underwing, Turnip, Red-line Quaker, Yellow-line Quaker, Satellite, Beaded Chestnut, Lunar Underwing, Black Rustic, Grey Shoulder-knot, Feathered Ranunculus and Angle Shades.
Late news for yesterday: a Vestal was caught in a garden moth-traps at Southwell.
Little Owls and Purple Sandpipers from yesterday - Portland Bill, 9th November 2009 © Allan Neilson
A waft of south-easterly wind raised expectations a little but in the event the rain or drizzle was more persistent than forecast and exploration in the clearer slots revealed no new arrivals of any quality. A few extra thrushes, including 30 Blackbirds and 6 Redwings at Southwell and 10 Fieldfares at the Bill, were dropped by the rain but the only other sightings of note concerned 6 Purple Sandpipers, 3 Chiffchaffs, 2 Black Redstarts and singles of Grey Wagtail, Cetti's Warbler, Blackcap, Firecrest and Siskin on the ground at the Bill, and 20 Common Scoter, 9 Brent Geese, 3 Wigeon, a Red-throated Diver and a Great Northern Diver through on the sea there.
A small arrival (or re-emergence?) of immigrant moths included 3 Dark Sword Grass, 2 Rusty-dot Pearl, 2 Silver Y and a Rush Veneer caught overnight in the Obs garden traps.
Fieldfare and yesterday's Great Spotted Woodpecker - Portland Bill and Wakeham, 9th and 8th November 2009 © Martin Cade (Fieldfare) and Pete Saunders (Great Spotted Woodpecker)
Portland escaped the fog that looked to be cloaking the mainland and in gloriously clear, sunny conditions there was plenty of coverage of the island. The main feature of the day was an almost constant light trickle of mainly thrushes, Starlings and finches heading north into the north-east breeze, with the Bill area producing totals that included 750 Starlings, 200 Goldfinches, 150 Chaffinches, 100 Blackbirds, 50 Song Thrushes, 40 Redwings, 25 Fieldfares, 10 Bramblings, 5 Siskins, 5 Redpolls, 5 Reed Buntings, 2 Lapwings, a Golden Plover, a Short-eared Owl and a Mistle Thrush; further grounded migrants there included 7 Black Redstarts, 7 Chiffchaffs, 2 Blackcaps, a Grey Wagtail and a Firecrest, whilst winterers in residence included 6 Purple Sandpipers and a Water Rail. Elsewhere there were 3 more Black Redstarts, a Jack Snipe and a likely Siberian Chiffchaff at Southwell, a Firecrest at Easton and a Black Redstart at the Grove. A little bit of passage on the sea included 2 Red-throated Divers, 2 Red-breasted Mergansers and a Great Northern Diver passing the Bill.
A Snow Bunting dropped in briefly during the morning on the East Cliffs at the Bill, but otherwise the day's list was fairly typical for a chilly late autumn day: 150 Chaffinches, 100 Goldfinches, 80 Wood Pigeons, 25 Blackbirds, 20 each of Redwing and Song Thrush, 6 Black Redstarts, 5 Fieldfares, 5 Chiffchaffs, 4 Bramblings, 4 Redpolls, 2 Purple Sandpipers, a Grey Heron, a Swallow, the Cetti's Warbler, a Blackcap and a Firecrest overhead or on the ground at the Bill, 30 Mediterranean Gulls and a Red-throated Diver through on the sea there, 4 Firecrests, a Great Spotted Woodpecker and a handful of Blackcaps and Chiffchaffs around the centre of the island and 2 Black Brants at Ferrybridge.
Whilst there's still plenty of time for a bit of late action today certainly had an end of autumn/beginning of winter feel about it with plenty of weekend coverage producing precious little new on the ground or overhead. Visible passage very conspicuously fizzled out, with just 200 Wood Pigeons and a very minor trickle of thrushes and finches over the Bill. Long-stayers accounted for most of the reports from the ground, with 7 Black Redstarts, 2 Purple Sandpipers, a Merlin, the Cetti's Warbler and a Firecrest at the Bill, 2 more Black Redstarts at Reap Lane, 3 more Firecrests in the Pennsylvania Castle/Perryfields area and 10 Pale-bellied Brents and 3 Black Brants amongst the Dark-bellied Brent Geese at Ferrybridge.
Barn Owl - Portland Bill, 6th November 2009 © Martin Cade
On the face of it, with very threatening-looking skies out to the south of the island, the morning seemed unlikely to produce much in the way of overhead passage but in the event there was still plenty on the move. Wood Pigeons again dominated, with 6500 leaving to the south over the Bill, whilst the makeweights there included 700 Goldfinches, 400 Chaffinches, 140 Starlings, 100 Meadow Pipits, 12 Bramblings, 10 Song Thrushes, 10 Redwings, 3 Fieldfares, 2 Siskins, 2 Redpolls, 2 Reed Buntings, a Merlin and a Snipe. Grounded migrants remained thinly spread, with little of significance beyond 5 Chiffchaffs, 4 Black Redstarts, 2 Wheatears, 2 Blackcaps, a Water Rail and a Firecrest at the Bill; singles of Purple Sandpiper and Barn Owl were also there. Odds and ends on the sea at the Bill included 26 Common Scoter, 2 Great Northern Divers, a Red-throated Diver and a Wigeon.
Yet more Wood Pigeons and Grey Partridge - Portland Bill, 5th November 2009 © Martin Cade
...today's high-flying (one mile+) pigeons were still heading straight out to the south but some of the smaller, lower (lighthouse-ish height) flocks chickened out and headed back north. The partridge covey is getting a bit depleted - today we could only find 4 birds (down from at least 6 a month ago).
A bit of a shift in the wind toward the north-west saw much of the morning's overhead passage switch from a southerly to a northerly heading; Wood Pigeons, however, carried on regardless with the majority of the 3500 or so logged at the Bill still heading away to the south. Also on the move over the Bill were 400 Goldfinches, 300 Chaffinches, 50 Meadow Pipits, 6 Redwings, 4 Bramblings, a Merlin, a Woodcock, a Swallow, a Fieldfare and a Siskin, whilst a fair-sized westward passage of gulls on the sea there included in a one hour sample count 400 Common Gulls, 38 Mediterranean Gulls and 34 Black-headed Gulls; a lone Great Northern Diver was also settled offshore. New grounded migrants were all but non-existent, although there were still 6 Black Redstart at the Bill.
Another busy Wood Pigeon morning - Portland Bill, 4th November 2009 © Martin Cade
Another day of blasting westerlies but with the showers holding off until afternoon there was plenty of opportunity for overflying migrants to get going. Wood Pigeons were again conspicuous, with just over 8000 leaving to the south over the Bill, whilst Skylarks and a variety of finches - notably Chaffinches, Greenfinches and Goldfinches - were also moving in good numbers. The day's tally from the Bill area also included 10 Chiffchaffs, 5 Bramblings, 4 Purple Sandpipers, 4 Fieldfares, 4 Black Redstarts, 3 Siskins, a Merlin, a Woodcock, a Wheatear, the Cetti's Warbler, a Blackcap and a Firecrest on the land and a Great Skua lingering offshore, whilst elsewhere another Black Redstart was at Reap Lane.
Immigrants in the Obs garden moth-traps this morning: 4 Rusty-dot Pearl, 4 Silver Y, 3 Rush Veneer and a Diamond-back Moth.
Black Brant - Ferrybridge, 3rd November 2009 © Pete Saunders
3rd November
Blasting westerlies and frequent heavy showers today - certainly not good birding weather. The only news was of 1830 Dark-bellied Brent Geese, 25 Mediterranean Gulls, 8 Pale-bellied Brents and a Black Brant at Ferrybridge, 4 Chiffchaffs, 2 Firecrests, a Little Egret, a Merlin, a Wheatear, a Black Redstart, the Cetti's Warbler (click here to listen to a short recording of some alarm calls from this bird which has been in the Obs garden for getting on for a fortnight - it does occasionally call but has hardly been seen at all since it was trapped and ringed on 23rd October; the reason for it getting agitated becomes obvious at the end of the recording) and a Blackcap at the Bill and 11 Common Scoter, 10 Mediterranean Gulls and 2 Great Skuas through on the sea at the Bill.
Although it's probably of little interest to anyone who wasn't on the trip we have finally got round - only five months after returning - to uploading a bit of a report, along with some photos and recordings, on the Birdfinders trip to Finland and Norway that we co-led back in May/June; click here if you'd like to have a look at some photos of bewildering redpoll variation or listen to Red-flanked Bluetail singing! (...and apologies, this is a really big file so it does take quite a while to download).
Pale-bellied Brent Goose and Wood Pigeons - Ferrybridge and Portland Bill, 2nd November 2009 © Pete Saunders (Pale-bellied Brent) and Martin Cade (pigeons)
...a lot of this morning's pigeon passage took place at the limit of naked eye vision; the loose flock in the photo above was somewhere around 1½ miles up (we don't know much about bird's long range vision but to the human eye France/Channel Isles ought to have been clearly visible from this height)...and for anyone interested in flock size estimation we had a look at the higher resolution original of this photo and there are around 380 birds visible in the frame.
In clear, brisk north-westerlies it was relatively quiet on the ground but there was plenty of movement overhead, notably of Wood Pigeons. A little over 4000 Wood Pigeons headed south over the Bill, where Chaffinch and Goldfinch both reached into the several hundreds and 15 Redwings, 10 Bramblings, 8 Siskins, 7 Swallows, 5 Reed Buntings and 2 Fieldfares also passed over. Odds and ends on the ground there included 3 Purple Sandpipers, 2 Black Redstarts, 2 Blackcaps, 2 Firecrests and the long-staying Cetti's Warbler, whilst 3 Brent Geese, a Great Northern Diver and an Arctic Skua passed by on the sea. The only other reports were of 700 Dark-bellied Brent Geese, 2 Pale-bellied Brents and one of the Black Brants at Ferrybridge.
Immigrants in the Obs garden moth-traps this morning: 3 Rush Veneer, a Rusty-dot Pearl, a Dark Sword Grass and a Silver Y.
...finally, a reminder that the next In Focus field event at the Obs takes place between 10am and 4pm tomorrow, Tuesday 3rd November.
1st November
The recent settled, mild spell couldn't go on for ever and today saw the inevitable change to wet and stormy conditions. A fair bit of seawatching at the Bill produced not too much: 8 Common Scoter, 4 Great Skuas, 3 Wigeon, 3 Mediterranean Gulls, 2 Great Northern Divers and a single Sooty Shearwater. The only news from the land was of 2 Firecrests, a Short-eared Owl, a Black Redstart and a Redwing at the Bill.
Immigrants in the Obs garden moth-traps this morning: 19 Silver Y, 9 Rush Veneer, 8 Rusty-dot Pearl, 3 Dark Sword Grass, a Vestal, a Scarce Bordered Straw and out of season singles of Single-dotted Wave and Dark Arches.


text:
Coronavirus: Global infections cross 60 million milestone
By Ebuka Onyeji Nov 25, 2020
Views: Visits 9
The number of coronavirus infections worldwide has hit 60 million, nearly a year since the highly infectious disease began spreading around the globe.
The grim milestone was reached amid substantial progress in the development of a vaccine for the disease.
Since a second wave of the infections hit Europe and America, the figures have been escalating, smashing the records of previous pandemics.
The figure has more than doubled in four months after reaching 15 million on July 22.
The world had reached a million cases of infections on April 2. But the figure had doubled just 13 days later on April 15, and a week later on April 22, the tally reached 2.5million.
When the number crossed 10 million on July 1, WHO head, Tedros Ghebreyesus, had said the worst was yet to come, warning that the virus would infect many more people if governments did not start to implement the right policies.
After the global caseload crossed the 50 million thresholds on November 9, an additional five million infections were added in the next seven days, indicating how the second wave of the pandemic was dangerously spreading.
The world reached the 60 millionth milestone eight days later Tuesday evening, according to data from worldometers.info, a COVID-19 tracking site.
READ ALSO: Vaccines alone won't end pandemic — WHO
COVID-19, the potentially dangerous pneumonia-like disease caused by the coronavirus and said to have emanated from a local Wuhan market in China to spread to over 200 countries, has claimed more than 1.4 million lives.
The United States, which is worst affected, is nearing 13 million cases and has recorded over 265,000 deaths from the coronavirus since the first recorded fatality in February.
Vaccine race
The race to find a cure for the disease is also gaining momentum amid the rising cases and deaths.
Last Sunday, Pfizer said its coronavirus vaccine candidate was more than 90 per cent effective, increasing prospects that a cure is now much around the corner.
A few days later, another vaccine developed by Moderna was announced to be demonstrating about 95 per cent success rate in early clinical trials.
There is no proven cure yet but preliminary results from the vaccine increase confidence that a vaccine can train the immune system to fight the novel coronavirus without serious side effects.
Though still months away from widespread distribution, the two vaccine candidates that have recorded high degrees of success at clinical trials have raised hopes that a cure for the deadly virus is near.
As of the time of filing this report, there are 60,048,290 confirmed cases across the globe, data from worldometers.info, an online dashboard that tracks the global number of confirmed coronavirus cases showed.
The official number of global cases is now at least five times the number of severe influenza illnesses recorded annually, according to WHO data.
The five worst-hit countries: the U.S., India, Brazil, France, and Russia alone have a combined figure of nearly 30 million infections, more than half of the global total.
There are 17,163,023 active cases as of the time of reporting. Of that number, about 17,059,446 (99 per cent) are in mild conditions while only 103,577 cases are in serious or critical conditions.
As of the time of reporting, about 1,413,386 people have succumbed to coronavirus, data from worldometers.info showed. That has exceeded the upper range of 290,000 to 650,000 annual deaths linked to influenza.
The United States which already has the highest number of reported infections in the world is also the country with the highest death toll with over 265, 000.
Some experts said the death toll could be higher as many people suspected of the disease die without being tested.
Countries have continued to report inadequate testing for potential patients of the virus.
More than two-thirds of the over 60 million people infected by COVID-19 across the world have recovered after treatment.
The figure indicates the level of success countries and health professionals have recorded in containing the virus.
As of Tuesday evening, over 41 million recoveries have been recorded by worldometer.info.
According to the data, 41,471,881 patients won their battle against the disease.
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The World Health Organization had said that one-time infection of the coronavirus has not yet been proven to result in immunity.
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I've had a lifelong interest in helping others. I love my work and how it benefits my patients and also the community that we all share.
That got me thinking. I gradually started to get more interested in health and wellness. I started learning martial arts, tai chi, and qigong from video tapes and books. I changed my diet. I started meditating. My life gradually changed for the better. I got stronger mentally and physically. I had more energy and a more positive outlook. These are habits that are still in place in my life today. I'm constantly working on refining my lifestyle to cultivate optimal health and wellbeing.
I became interested in helping others after seeing some of my friends and family becoming sick, getting injured, and passing on. Everyone around me seemed to be suffering in some way. I wanted to be able to help ease the suffering of those around me.
I began seeking different health modalities. I began looking at nutrition, massage therapy, herbology, reiki, and qigong. I had made my mind up not to look into acupuncture because of my fear of needles. This changed when I was suffering from a lot of stress, started to develop heart palpitations, and had difficulty sleeping. I figured I would bite the bullet and try acupuncture.
I was super nervous going in for a treatment. The acupuncturist showed me how small the needles were and that set me at ease a little bit. I still wasn't sure how it would affect me though, so I was still afraid. The needles didn't hurt and I felt so relaxed—I even fell asleep.
Acupuncture improved my sleep and my eyesight!
After the treatment, I felt amazing! I couldn't remember ever having felt so relaxed and happy. When I drove home, I noticed that my eyesight had improved. I was able to see road signs much more clearly. Everything seemed brighter and more vibrant. These effects on my vision lasted for about 3 days. I was surprised since she didn't use any acupuncture points near my eyes. On top of this, my heart palpitations never came back and my sleeping problems completely resolved. I was sold.
I ended up going to school in San Diego at Pacific College of Oriental Medicine. I graduated in 2013 and I've been practicing since 2014. Since Acupuncture and Chinese Medicine are natural and holistic healing systems, I am able to treat a wide variety of ailments. I have a special interest in promoting healthy longevity, treating stress, neurological disorders, and musculoskeletal conditions.
My passions are grounded heavily in personal cultivation including: nutrition, exercise, study, qigong, mindfulness, and connecting with nature—none of which stop me from joking around and having fun. These pursuits bring me joy and help me do a better job of serving others. I'm also interested in permaculture, sustainability, and being out in nature. Providing Acupuncture Chinese Medicine are ways for me to contribute to a peaceful, thriving planet by empowering individuals to be happier and healthier.
I love my work and how it benefits my patients and also the community that we all share.


I recently realized that even though both my About page and widget mention we love to cook, I haven't posted a single recipe or even a photo of something from our kitchen. You'll need to wait a little longer for my first recipe post but since this is the fourth Monday of the month and one of Sally's Challenger Choices is Food, here are two tasty food photos.
This isn't from my kitchen but sometimes the best place to spend a Saturday morning is away from home at the local diner enjoying a huge, cooked to order, breakfast.
Some of you may remember my recent post about multicolored peppers from the Edmonds Farmer's Market. Here they are a few hours later, sautéed with onion and thinly sliced carrots, almost ready to join the Chile lime chicken in our fajitas.
You've made me hungry for Belgian waffles, which I have not made for a long time. Nice colorful set of images. Happy Phoneography Monday.
Thanks Sally, the waffles were great!
Thanks Amy, each dish was wonderful!
Breakfast. I could eat it anytime. Tasty photos.
Your cooked-2-order b'fast is a classic. Nicely captured on your phone.
OMG your the BEST! NO DISH DUTY for you!!!
I knew you'd like that! When I FINALLY start to tour the country I'm coming your way and fyi I will sing for my food!
Can you make me breakfast–please?? It looks so good!
Hi Mona, I'm happy to hear you like the Edmonds Market too! Chevre would absolutely be wonderful with the peppers but then I can happily eat chevre on just about anything. 🙂 Thanks for visiting and sharing your comments today!


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Tamara Macushla Munzner (born 1969) is an American-Canadian scientist. She is an expert in information visualization who works as a professor of computer science at the University of British Columbia (UBC).

Early life
Tamara Macushla Munzner was born in 1969 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. She graduated from South High School in 1986. She earned a Bachelor of Science degree in computer science from Stanford University in 1991. She returned to Stanford for her graduate studies, completing her Ph.D. in 2000 under the supervision of Pat Hanrahan. Her thesis, Interactive Visualization of Large Graphs and Networks, involved using hyperbolic geometry to visualize large graphs.

Career
Munzner worked as an intern at ETA Systems in the 1980s while still in college. Munzner then worked at The Geometry Center at the University of Minnesota from 1991 to 1995. There, she helped produce two mathematical visualization videos, one about turning spheres inside-out and another about the different topological structures that a three-dimensional universe could have.

She interned at Microsoft Research and Silicon Graphics. After receiving her Ph.D., she became a research scientist at the Compaq Systems Research Center in 2000, before joining the University of British Columbia faculty as an assistant professor of computer science in the summer of 2002.

Munzner is the author of the book Visualization Analysis and Design (CRC Press, 2014). She was program co-chair of the InfoVis conference in 2003 and 2004, and of EuroVis in 2009 and 2010. She has served as the chair of the steering committee of Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) InfoVis and the executive committee of IEEE Visualization.

Selected publications
 Munzner, T (2014). Visualization Analysis and Design CRC Press.
 Munzner, T (2009). A Nested Model for Visualization Design and Validation IEEE Trans. Visualization and Computer Graphics 15(6):921-928.
 Munzner, T (2012), with Sedlmair, M.  Design Study Methodology: Reflections from the Trenches and the Stacks  IEEE Trans. Visualization and Computer Graphics 18(12):2421-2440.

Awards
 In 2015, Munzner received the IEEE VGTC Visualization Technical Achievement Award "in recognition of her foundational research that has produced a scientific basis for principles and design choices for visualization".
 In 2019, Munzner was awarded a 10-Year Test of Time award from IEEE InfoVis. Her nested model of visualization design and validation, published in 2009, which guided designers from a problem in an application domain to abstractions for the problem and data, to the design of visual encoding and interaction techniques, to efficient instantiation through algorithms.

References

External links

1969 births
Living people
People from Minneapolis
American computer scientists
American women computer scientists
Canadian computer scientists
Canadian women computer scientists
Stanford University alumni
Academic staff of the University of British Columbia
Information visualization experts
American women academics
21st-century American women


I was asking $3000. Overkill, I know. Maybe I was trying not to sell it from the beginning.
That's pretty much what I meant. I could probabaly get away with clamping them in my vise.
Getting things ready for the HO swap as well. All in good time.
I could just use my impact. Haha.
Inching ever closer to the big brake swap. Upper control arms are assembled with poly bushings and ready to go.


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The Washington Post Homepage
Anne Love Smith
SMITH ANNE LOVE SMITH Died suddenly and unexpectedly Wednesday, April 29, 2009 in Dorchester General Hospital in Easton, MD. She was 68 years old. Anne was born on July 9, 1940 in Greenock, Scotland. She moved to Burlington, NJ with her parents, Henry and Flora Love; and her brother, Ian; when she was ten. Later, she became the high school sweetheart of fellow Burlington High student Peter Moore Smith. They married on May 6, 1960. Anne is survived by her husband, Army officer Col. Peter Moore Smith (ret.); and their three children, Julianne Moore, Valerie Wells, and Peter Moore Smith, III; and by her brother Ian Love. She delighted in her grandchildren, Porter, John, Cal, Brett, Liv, and Wolfgang. While raising her three children, Anne attended many schools, including Canal Zone Junior College, Juneau Douglas Junior College, and the University of Nebraska, ultimately graduating Summa Cum Laude with a BA from Briar Cliff College, an M.Ed. from Boston University, and a Masters in Social Work from Catholic University. She especially loved children and family, and her career as a counseling psychologist and social worker was devoted to helping people live happier lives. Anne and her family traveled the world and lived in many places, including New Jersey, North Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Panama, Nebraska, Alaska, New York, Virginia, Germany, Washington, DC, and, finally, Maryland. The waters of the Chesapeake reminded her of the coastal town in Scotland where she was from, and so her husband Peter retired in St. Michaels, MD. They lived there together for 19 happy years. Anne found a fulfilling career at Cambridge Hospital, a beautiful home that became her life''s great creative project, and many, many friends. There is much to tell about Anne''s life. She was successful and accomplished. But what is most important to say is that she had a fiercely intelligent mind and a ferociously loving heart. She was deeply loved and will be deeply missed. As per Anne''s wishes, services will be private. In lieu of flowers, donations can be sent to the Talbot County Mental Health Association at 611B Dutchman''s Lane, Easton, MD 21601-3345.
Published by The Washington Post on May 3, 2009.
To offer your sympathy during this difficult time, you can now have memorial trees planted in a National Forest in memory of your loved one.
How do you know Anne Love Smith? (Optional)
She sounds like a lovely and remarkable person.
Michael Jack


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Macro Update: This Is A Correction And Not A Sustained Bear Market – Seeking Alpha
cdeniz/iStock via Getty Images
Back in the day, coal miners took canaries into coal mines. The birds were an early warning of an invisible and lethal danger because canaries are more sensitive to dangerous gases than humans are. Consequently, the coal miners knew it was time to leave the coal mine if the canary died because hazardous gases were present.
There are parallels between canaries and our four leading macroeconomic indicators. They signal if a recession is likely. Moreover, they have a good track record for warning about an economic downturn ahead of the stock market, which is also a leading indicator. Recessions are relevant for investors because sustained bear markets unfolded in the US during economic contractions only.
Investors were best off preserving capital and selling their equity holdings to circumvent sustained bear markets in the recessionary phase of the cycle. That's in contrast to regular corrections. A stock market correction occurs more often than a sustained bear market. They are a regular feature of the stock market during economic expansions. However, investors don't need to fear corrections because the S&P 500 almost never had a drawdown of -20% while the US economy grew. Moreover, corrections recovered swiftly. Therefore, it has been profitable to historically buy the dips or sit through corrections.
Our leading macroeconomic indicators continue supporting a bullish thesis short-term. They remain constructive and do not signal a recession despite deteriorating slightly since our latest update a month ago.
Initial Claims (U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
The US labor market weakened ahead of every recession since WWII. It peaked before weakness set in on average two months before the S&P 500 reached its cyclical high. Moreover, labor market strength fatigued about 16 months before the unemployment rate hit its absolute low historically. There has been only one exception, the 1973-1975 recession, out of the past ten recessions that did not record a gradual deterioration of the labor market every month.
The labor market remains strong and does not signal an imminent recession today. It continues setting one record after another within the economic cycle that started after the corona crisis.
Credit Spreads
Credit spreads also deteriorated before the past recessions before the S&P 500 reached a cyclical peak. They typically widened 17 months before the US economy went into recession. That was, on average, 11 months before the S&P 500 reached a cyclical peak.
Moody's seasonal Baa corporate bond yield relative to the 10y treasury yield summarizes the historical evidence. The gauge peaked in November 2021, which is about five months ago. Moreover, we witness a healthy widening but not credit stress today.
Post-WWII, equities climbed for another six months before the wheels came off in similar conditions as today.
Credit Spreads (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
Since the last update, the most significant change is that the yield curve inverted briefly.
An inverted yield curve proceeded a cyclical stock market high on average by 5-6 months during the past 70 years. The gauge has been a reliable leading indicator for the economy and the stock market.
The 10y minus 2y yield US Treasury yield curve is in line with credit spreads. Both signal that equities have another 5-6 months of tailwind.
Yield Curve (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
Conference Board LEI
In the past 70 years, the conference board's leading economic index cyclical peak has been, on average, three months before a cyclical stock market peak. Although the index peaked in December, it has been rising in 2022. The indicator is just -0.1% shy of its ATH and could reset the signal next month. That's contrary to its typical behavior before the past recessions, which recorded a decline in the indicator.
Again, there is no imminent recession signal flashing here.
Leading Economic Index (Conference Board, Mortgage Bankers Association)
The US stock market has most likely not peaked yet. Our four canaries merely started coughing but did not close their eyes. It is most likely too early to leave the stock market. The late-cycle stage may have begun and equities had positive returns during that stage. The S&P 500 remains on target to swing toward 5000-5200 until Autumn.
Nonetheless, the road could remain bumpy for individual stocks or sectors. Therefore, it is prudent to diversify and hold on to long equity exposure at this junction.


text:
Scott CPAs
Accounting & Assurance
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We provide custom tax, accounting and consulting services with the goal of satisfying both the short- and long-term goals, with guidance that provides peace of mind and confidence in the future.
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We provide Tax, Accounting, Assurance and Consulting services to businesses and individuals. We believe making wise business decisions, is making wise partnership decisions, we seek to be the firm you look back with a smile of satisfaction and confidently look to the future with us by your side.
Scott CPAs provides a wide range of accounting services to help support your needs
Our focus is to market West Coast based companies for sale, recapitalization or new investment
Our tax team will work closely with you or your representative, to determine the best tax outcome available
You can access a variety of services anytime, right from our website. It's as easy and secure as online banking
Our Mission is to be the leader in excellence and integrity in the delivery of accounting, tax and consulting services.
We firmly believe excellence in service begins with consistency of character, carefully planned goals, and integrity of action. We provide Tax, Accounting, Assurance and Consulting services to businesses and individuals
Our Mission is to be the leader in excellence and integrity in the delivery of accounting, tax and consulting services. We firmly believe excellence in service begins with consistency of character, carefully planned goals, and integrity of action.
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information@scott-baldwin.com
© 2023 SCOTT CPAs
Website design by Wicked Web Design


The Drawing and Cartooning class is a place where we tell our stories through pictures. Our stories come alive as we draw – it is all in the process. We talk about what our characters are thinking and saying; what they are feeling and how each one is responding to the given situation. Whatever the students' interests, my goal is to support their exploration and progress. There is no lesson plan. Each artist follows his or her own thread and I am in the background ready to work with each person as needed. All materials are provided.
Students will be exposed to a variety of dance styles. Students' interests will drive the styles chosen and time spent on each style. Possible styles include: ballet, ballroom dancing, hip-hop, improvisation, jazz, line dancing, lyrical/modern, partner dancing and tap. Classes will begin each week with a warm-up consisting of stretching and basic movements that come from that day's particular style of dance. Students will then move into short dance progressions that combine movements together. Finally, students will learn combinations that will be expanded upon each week to boost long-term memorization of routines and encourage practice outside of class. Students will also receive a basic history or background on each style of dance studied.
Chess is fun and can be learned quickly and easily! Studies have found that chess helps improve test results, and produces growth in critical cognitive skills. Beyond academia, chess influences social behavior including self-esteem, patience, and good sportsmanship.
The focal point is for students to become comfortable with the ball by developing soccer skills such as dribbling, shooting and the introduction of passing. Every Super Soccer Stars class includes dynamic activities, which involve dribbling technique, and moves to promote confidence with the ball. The concepts of teammates and teamwork are also introduced.
Kids' Carpentry is designed to teach students about the safe use of hand-tools and general woodworking skills. Through a sequence of projects, carpenters gain the skill and competence to complete increasingly complicated projects. Classes are small to ensure a safe environment while learning carpentry skills.
Session One for Grades K-2 3:45-4:45 p.m.
Session Two for Grades 3-5 4:45-5:45 p.m.
This is a beginners level paper folding and paper crafting class where each week the student creates his or her own 3-dimensional art piece including original Origami models, coloring, drawing and cutting!
children's books, and is working on her own graphic novel!
Are you ready to superhero balance, bear walk, forward roll, cartwheel, frog jump, alligator crawl, chicken dance, limbo-rock, peppermint twist, ribbon dance, and more? We offer a broad exposure to creative movement, dance, and basic gymnastics tumbling each week in a safe, compassionate, and non-competitive environment. Activities, skills, and choreography are new and exciting each week, although we do bring back favorites from time-to-time and build a progression of skills and choreography throughout the session.


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Q: For every $v\in V$, determine if it belongs to some negative cycle in $G$
Let $G=(V,E)$ a directed graph with a weight function $w:E\to\mathbb{R}$. For every $v\in V$, determine if $v$ belongs to some negative cycle.

Obviously we need to utilize Bellman-Ford algorithm for our cause. I thought about running the first part of Bellman-Ford (looping $n-1$ times). Afterward, instead of just trying to identity a negative cycle, we scan the graph from $s$ (the source) using DFS, and checking if $d[v] > d[u] + w(u,v)$. If so, we mark $v$ as a vertex of some negative cycle.
I'd like to verify the correctness of my solution.
Thanks.

A: There are some corner cases for which your algorithm doesn't work. For example:

*

*What if some vertex is a part of a negative cycle unreachable from $s$ (your problem statement doesn't say anything about it, so we have to assume the worst case)?

*Your inequality might be satisfied even for vertices that are reachable from negative cycles, but doesn't belong to them.

I hope this helps $\ddot\smile$

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Original idea and a brilliant addition to your summer vest collection. Excellent choice for holidays in Florida, California or Spain. Whether you are off on a road trip with your close mates, or just enjoying classic family vacation this non-obligatory top should be your prime selection.
It's a lovely Tuesday afternoon and you are on holiday somewhere in Miami or Mallorca sipping Cuba Libres and simply living. You see a great looking girl sat in front of you in a beach bar. You put on that Splash Drink Tank Top you've just bought and offer her a drink. She points out at your vest asking if this is what you are going to make, and, dude, you are in.


A successful political campaign in the 21st century depends on having a web campaign that is both simple and sophisticated: sophisticated in its strategy, goals and implementation yet simple for voters to engage with online. We recently partnered with established Art Director John Salazar of Next Design Communications to build a new campaign website along with accompanying email and fundraising services for Ken Dishman, who ran for Sandy Springs City Council. Congrats to Ken and his team for winning the election!
As someone who worked in the IT industry for the past 17 years, Ken Dishman understands the power and importance of a strong web presence in today's political arena. So his choice to go with Picobarn was a huge compliment and testament to the quality of our work. Because the decision to run was short notice, we expedited the launch in two separate phases, completed in only three weeks time: a static splash page with basic donate and email capture function, then a WordPress site built to John's specifications in two weeks.
In addition to having a website that is attractive and easy to navigate, it was important for us to help give Ken the tools to maintain a personal connection with his supporters. While we typically use Mailchimp to stay in touch with customers via email, the client specifications were to build in Benchmark. We set up the email service he needed to engage with his potential constituents. By providing their zip code and neighborhood when signing up for the newsletter, voters can receive targeted messages about the hot issues in their area, which Ken's campaign can use to inspire and mobilize specific voting blocs in his district.
Ken was also interested in the power of the web for fundraising through small, personal donations, which has empowered many successful grassroot political campaigns. In order to meet this need, we set up a Transaxt account to make it easy for his supporters to donate online using a debit or credit card. They can choose to make one-time contribution or a recurring donation every week, month, or year. The service also provides analytics and social media integration.
We also provide the first 30 days of service free after we build a new site. For Ken, this is all the service he will need from us at this time. It was a great honor and privilege to work with the Ken Dishman campaign. We are proud to show off the work we did, and we wish him the best of luck on the Sandy Springs City Council!


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This game provider was only founded in 2014, but they're already "shaking up" the gaming industry, according to them. Is it true? Well, they may not have very many games yet, but the phrase 'quality over quantity' definitely comes to mind when trying out their slots. From their headquarters in Tel Aviv, they observe trends in genres from within the gaming world and base their adventures on them, allowing their players to dive into the games they've come to love with that extra buzz of a win on top.
Eran Sharar, former Head of Mobile for Playtech; David Neeman, former Games Product Team Leader at 888; and Lior Aziz, mathematics and law specialist, came together to form Skillzzgaming, and are now in the process of growing the company from the ground up.
They're new, they're exciting, they know what they're doing, their games are available to play on all devices and they're certified by the UK Gambling Commission, so you can be sure that you're in safe hands. It's a combination born to create epic games – so let's have a look at what they've come up with so far.
Love Candy Crush? Then Gems Odyssey is the game for you – collect brightly-coloured gems by tapping clusters of three or more, which then fill the six gem bars, allowing you to level up and unlock prizes. If you feel like sitting back, listening to the space-inspired soundtrack and letting the game do the work, you can also try the AI or autoplay modes, where the game blasts gem clusters automatically. Oh, and you could win up to x1000 your bet here, so if we were you, we'd climb into our rocket and blast straight off to explore this slot's 5x5 grid and hunt down the stars.
Fruit Blast is similar, with a 5x5 grid and the possibility of winning up to x1000 your bet, except this game takes us to the beach instead of into outer space. While you're relaxing with a cocktail, click on clusters of three or more matching symbols to fill the five bars at the side of the screen, which will reward you with a win once full. Move through the levels, collecting stars and unlocking achievements as you go, and you might return home with a whole lot more than just a suntan.
As this provider's name suggests, there is at least a slight skill-based element to these games, which only serves to make them more immersive and engaging. Skillzzgaming's newness in the industry means that they're able to approach with fresh eyes, ready to inject a much-needed breath of fresh air to the familiar world of slots – so if you're in the mood for something refreshing, here's where you should start. Have fun!