text:
Researcher banned from federal Canadian funding after misconduct loses medical license
via WCH
A once-prominent bone researcher whose career crumbled after allegations of misconduct has lost her medical license in Canada.
The researcher, Abida Sophina "Sophie" Jamal, formerly of the University of Toronto, had been considered a rising star in the international community of osteoporosis researchers, winning awards and collaborating with some of the leading senior investigators in the field.
But on March 6, 2018, Jamal was summoned by a disciplinary committee of the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario to hear the following letter:
Dr. Jamal,
The Committee views your behaviour as shocking and shameful. Your falsification of research data and dishonesty strikes at the fundamental faith in the medical profession.
Your extensive attempts at cover up add further to your breach of the public trust. The impact of your misconduct is far reaching. This has affected not only your colleagues, but Women's College Hospital, the University of Toronto, and the reputation of the Canadian research Community.
You were highly qualified to carry out research on human subjects in a world class setting, and you betrayed all of those involved. The Committee is of the view that your misconduct is egregious, and is of the highest order.
In addition to the falsification of research data and dishonesty, you betrayed trust in your research assistant, and it can only be imagined the resultant effects on this individual. You wasted precious health care research funds.
While we accept that there were no harmful outcomes, there were adverse effects on study participants. While the community accepts that you are ashamed of your actions, we remain at a loss as to how to explain why you acted in the manner you did. This is something you will have to come to terms with in future years.
In addition to the rebuke, Jamal had to pay the costs of one day of hearings — $5,500 — and lost her certificate of registration (the Canadian version of a medical license).
A lifetime funding ban
Jamal's fortunes began to change in 2015, when people began to question the integrity of her data. Those doubts eventually led to three retractions and a lifetime funding ban from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, to whom she paid restitution of more than $260,000.
The report, released last May by the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario, is a damning chronicle of deceit that cries out with condemnation. (We have only become aware of the report now, following a notice in a College newsletter.) It finds broadly that Jamal, who admitted to the charges against her:
has failed to maintain the standard of practice of the profession; … has engaged in an act or omission relevant to the practice of medicine that, having regard to all the circumstances, would reasonably be regarded by members as disgraceful, dishonourable or unprofessional; and … has engaged in conduct unbecoming a physician.
The document states that Jamal lied to investigators, blamed her research associate for apparent discrepancies in her data and even blamed Steven Cummings, her high-profile collaborator on the JAMA article, for cooking up complaints against her out of 'deep personal interest' in the outcome of that study.
The files she submitted to the University of Toronto Inquiry were files she personally manipulated and not the original files of her Research Associate as she claimed. She went so far as to illegally access patient records to alter data and destroy and change computer files. She disposed of an old computer so the forensic computer experts could not examine it. She went into the Canadian Blood Services facility and changed freezer temperatures to damage blood and urine samples in a strenuous attempt to cover up her deceptions during the IC's investigation. This prolonged deception and dishonesty is considered by the Committee to constitute serious professional misconduct.
Dr. Jamal attempted to put all the blame on other people. When [co-author Richard] Eastell confronted her about the incorrect data, she blamed her Research Associate for changing the data and then lied in claiming to have spoken to the Vice President of Research at Women's College Hospital about her Research Associate's misconduct. During the University of Toronto Inquiry, she attempted repeatedly to attach the entire blame on her innocent research associate, stating: "I had complete faith in my [Research Associate's] knowledge and competence. I cannot understand why the data would have been intentionally manipulated, and if it was, it does not make sense to me why [my Research Associate] would choose to do so…"
Cummings declined to speak with us about the case.
Jamal's attorneys did not respond to a request for comment. According to the report she waived her right to appeal the judgment.
Posted on January 29, 2019 January 28, 2019 Author Adam MarcusCategories canada
6 thoughts on "Researcher banned from federal Canadian funding after misconduct loses medical license"
OT says:
"She went into the Canadian Blood Services facility and changed freezer temperatures to damage blood and urine samples"??
Isn't this a crime, rather than simply a misconduct?
Dr. Jondoe says:
Intentionally damaging or destroying property certainly would be, although it would be up to the owner of said property (the University or the Blood Center) to press charges, not the medical licensing board.
oldnuke says:
we need to see serious punishments like this in the US. Pulling a medical license would get some people's attention.
Required to pay $260K restitution for research funds and costs for the her hearing, a no-holds-barred public rebuke, loss of job, loss of licence, loss of livelihood. She justifiably received the maximum possible punishment for her actions, which were egregious. Somehow, though, it doesn't give me any new confidence that the old boys with big titles, big grants, and spin-offs with big valuations won't continue to be able to just slink off somewhere else when their misdeeds and dishonesty comes to light.
lookingcloseragain says:
"it doesn't give me any new confidence that the old boys with big titles"
Dr Eastell from the University of Sheffield, UK has an interesting past with data access and interpretation with Dr Blumsohn
See: https://slate.com/technology/2005/12/did-a-british-university-sell-out-to-p-g.html
It appears it was Dr Eastell and colleagues that spotted inconsistencies with Dr Jamals data as they had some of the raw data.
It is highly unlikely that anyone would have spotted the data irregularities if the raw data were not available.
Therefore should all raw data be made available for all future publications?
In reading the linked report, it appears Dr Eastell was in attendence when Dr Jamal presented an analysis of the data, and recognized that some of the results did not make sense. It was only then that he sought the underlying data. Dr Jamal had manipulated the data that the assistant collected from the patient records, and later also patient records themselves.
If all patient record forms and images from a clinical study were immediately uploaded and locked from being edited later, that would have prevented what Dr Jamal did. That's the closest thing to raw data that could be put in electronic form, but it's not a format that would facilitate reanalysis by others. If you've seen the stacks of patient record forms from even a small study of a couple dozen subjects, you'll know what I mean.
Critical thinking by an expert looking at the end result of data analysis is what started the unravelling of Dr Jamal's attempt to manipulate the study outcome. He was also in the position to demand to see all of the data she was using.
It is not a simple thing to define "raw data" that would be made publically available and thereby prevent research misconduct.
IMO keeping them honest will always require scientists who can question the work of other scientists – not just small fry but the big shots that exert enormous power in their field and at their universities – and institutions that will then be willing and able ti investigate and disclose their findings.
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text:
An Armor Conspired: the Global Shipping Freeze
– October 2, 2021 Reading Time: 13 minutes
Despite numerous personal shortcomings, Jim Morrison of The Doors regularly evinced considerable writing talents. In the poem-song Horse Latitudes, he describes the conditions under which stalled galleons would, drifting listlessly at certain latitudes, jettison cargo so as to make their craft more susceptible to the slightest winds. The lyrics begin as follows:
When the still sea conspires an armor
And her sullen and aborted currents
Breed tiny monsters
True sailing is dead
Cargo vessels no longer raise sails or require wind to fill them, but doldrum-like conditions are rapidly manifesting near ports all over the world. Last week,
[s]ixty-one vessels were anchored offshore on Thursday [September 23rd] waiting to unload cargo as the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach…In addition to the anchored ships, 29 were adrift up to 20 miles offshore, meaning they were so far from the coast that their anchors could not reach the ocean floor.
And in the east on Sunday, September 26th,
[The] Port of New York and New Jersey appears to be facing similar issues as West coast ports…Around 24 cargo ships and oil tankers [were] stuck waiting to dock off the coast of Long Island, New York…As of 9pm local time Saturday, the ships appeared to have been stuck in place for hours.
Explanations for the increasing delays include slow loading/unloading times, rising costs of shipping, and capital shortages. All of those explanations are correct but incomplete and insufficiently descriptive. To uncover the root causes and trace their evolution, we must go back to the very beginning.
Nominal Rigidities
First, the foundations. While bottlenecks are occurring everywhere, at present US ports are disproportionately affected. Docking locations along US coasts are among the slowest in the world: not because of size or technological capacity but collective bargaining hindrances. As Dominic Pino recently wrote,
Why are our ports so far behind? Not because we don't spend enough on infrastructure, as the Biden administration would have you believe. The federal government could spend a quadrillion dollars on ports, and it wouldn't change the contracts with the longshoreman unions that prevent ports from operating 24/7 (as they do in Asia) and send labor costs through the roof. (Lincicome finds that union dockworkers on the West Coast make an average of $171,000 a year plus free healthcare.) The unions also fight automation at American ports today, "just as they fought containerized shipping and computers decades before that."
Before the public hysterics, lockdowns, and stay-at-home orders, and even before the first offloading was delayed, nominal rigidities had ossified US port operations and made them particularly vulnerable to even the slightest kinks in supply chains.
Where It Began
As is well documented by now, the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions sent measures of economic activity plummeting throughout the second quarter of 2020. Unemployment skyrocketed to levels not seen since the Great Depression. The US government countered with stimulus payments via the CARES Act (March 2020), the Consolidated Appropriations Act (December 2020), and the American Rescue Plan (March 2021). Although state governors adopted independent pandemic postures, the spectrum of stringency ran a gambit from less to more binding as exemplified by Florida and North Dakota versus Hawaii and California.
The sudden strangulation of in-person commercial activity, coupled with weeks to months of veritable isolation at home, with trillions of dollars being mailed out led to a consumption binge. This was both well documented and empirically verifiable. Where in normal circumstances modern US consumers tend to purchase services more than goods, the circumstances arising of isolation at home for prolonged periods led to a decisive shift toward purchasing goods: electronics, furniture, exercise equipment, home improvement items, and so on.
US GDP (quarterly, chained 2012 dollars, 2019 – present)
(Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP)
It is in the sudden, stimulus-fueled rise in demand falling upon decreasing supply where, in summer and fall of 2020, strains began to wend their way through shipping processes.
Intermodal Transport
Intermodal transport has its roots in the growth of trade in the 19th century, but like so much of what makes the modern world "tick," it goes mostly unobserved and almost entirely unappreciated. The standardization of shipping containers in such a way that they can move from trucks to ships to aircraft, barges, and trains with a minimum of effort is a feat of technology and international coordination.
US Personal Consumption Expenditures, Chain Type Price Index (2016 – present)
Throughout the fall of 2020 and winter of 2021, the US economy was expanding out of the artificial recession imposed in the spring and early summer of 2020. (It bears noting that even in the latter part of 2020 certain US states were still restricting movement, limiting gatherings, and fining employers.) This expansion of activity resulted in the first episodes witnessing a shortage of shipping containers in February 2021.
The Ever Given and the Suez
On Tuesday, March 23, 2021, the Ever Given–a 1,300 foot, 200,000 tonne container ship carrying over 18,000 containers–became lodged in the Suez Canal. (The canal has closed a handful of times.) The blockage is believed to have occurred when the combination of an uncommonly strong gust of wind and preoccupied guidance led to the fore of the ship running aground, wedging it across the canal at an angle.
In this one development, some 12% of global trade was held up for 6 days: just under $10B worth of goods and over one million barrels of oil. When the ship was finally freed, shipping journal Lloyd's List estimated that some 450 ships were waiting to traverse the canal.
The damage associated with the accident includes the numerous and uncountable cost of delays, the estimated reduction of annual global trade growth (0.2 to 0.4 percentage points), and the leap in the cost of chartering vessels to go around the Horn of Africa (47%). But the Suez blockage also made each of the subsequent transportation snags all the more severe.
Shipping Containers Dwindle
At this point, the combination of rising demand and slowing sea traffic began revealing itself in a paucity of available shipping containers.
Intermodal transport, which contemplates the use of standardized containers that readily transfer between air, sea, rail, and highway conveyance, is perhaps the most underappreciated factor in the globalized economy. Standard dimensions permit planning and maximizing capacity in advance, giving logisticians the ability to capitalize upon changes in the course of shipment. The ability to move a container from train to aircraft to ship results in efficient lading, which has contributed to lower costs and faster delivery times.
The global shipping container inventory tends toward a rough equilibrium state which takes into account surges in demand; the containers tend to last about 12 years, and are produced at a rate generally matching their retirement of some 6 to 8% per year. The greatest and most predictable surge of use occurs between September and December as retailers stock inventories in anticipation of the Thanksgiving to New Year's surge in consumption.
But by the early spring of 2021, with containers filling rapidly in response to Covid-related demand (both lockdowns and reopenings) and additional stimulus payments, available containers and container space became scarcer. Dwindling supply, predictably, was signaled by worldwide container prices. There are markets for newly built shipping containers as well as exchanges where used containers can be acquired. Between early and late 2020, new shipping container prices rose from roughly $1,800 to $2,500 CEU; but roughly one month after the week-long Suez blockage the first of several spikes was witnessed.
The price for a new container is now $3,500 per cost equivalent unit (CEU, a measure of the value of a container as a multiple of a 20-foot dry cargo unit)…[while] recent price gains have been more extreme in the used container market. Container xChange reported that the price of used containers in China has nearly doubled from $1,299 per CEU in November [2020] to $2,521 in March [2021].
As to why production of new containers didn't ramp up to meet surging demand, there are several perspectives. If the elevated demand was expected to be temporary, it's possible that container firms didn't see the point in increasing output. Another view holds that a rare opportunity to earn outsized profits in a normally staid business was capitalized upon by the producing firms.
Baltic Dry Index (2015 – present)
Yantian Closes
In late May 2021 Yantian, a Chinese port about 50 miles north of Hong Kong shut owing to a number of Covid infections among dockworkers. Authorities halted operations for almost a week, which at a daily operating capacity of 30,000 20-foot containers per day, created a tremendous backlog. The ripple effect saw not only a pileup of unsent goods at that port, but the rerouting of Yantian-bound container ships to other ports strained capacity, creating further delays, and tying up more containers. By Thursday, June 17th,
[t]he congestion in Yantian ha[d] spilled over to other container ports in Guangdong, including Shekou, Chiwan, and Nansha…The domino effect is creating a huge problem for the world's shipping industry…As of Thursday, more than 50 container vessels were waiting to dock in Guangdong's Outer Pearl River Delta…[But] the snag in operations in Yantian alone is concerning [delaying] more than the total volume of freight impacted by the six-day closure of the Suez Canal in March.
The price associated with shipping goods spiked, with the cost of sending 40-foot containers from Shanghai to Rotterdam increasing over 500% to $11,000 or more. The breach of the $10,000 rate marked a turning point; and it was at this point that, en masse, major shipping companies began alerting their clients of substantial delays, rising costs associated with routing changes, and higher prices associated with acquiring containers. Firms dependent upon ocean shipping began to do something they had been unaccustomed to: considering, and in some cases seizing upon, the newly-developed cost savings associated with air and rail transport.
Containers and Ships Vanish
As container availability dissipated and warehouses near ports overflowed, some shipping firms chose to use the scant containers in their possession as makeshift storage space on docks and truck/rail terminals. And by June 2021,
Indian exporters to North America and Europe [were] complaining that the wait times to find a shipping container [could] stretch as long as three weeks. British exporters say the shortage [had] delayed shipments to east Asia for up to two months. And in the meantime, container prices…nearly doubled.
On June 14th, Home Depot supply chain managers
realized that it was time to charter its own vessel. "We have a ship that's solely going to be ours and it's just going to go back and forth…100% dedicated to Home Depot," Chief Operating Officer Ted Decker said…The company [had] been reduced to bringing in items by air…as domestic demand surge[d].
Brokerage prices for short- and long-term charters began to surge. Whether awakened to this possibility by the Atlanta-based retailer or having arrived at the same conclusion independently, over the following weeks Walmart, Ikea, and scores of other large firms entered the private charter market.
Pallets Join Containers
All this was soon accompanied with a new problem deriving from yet another pandemic policy side effect: a pallet deficiency. The price of lumber had, owing to the effect of stay-at-home orders on sawmills and home improvement projects owing to lockdowns, surged roughly five-fold between January 2020 and May 2021. (By one account, an estimated 46% of US hardwood lumber production goes toward pallets.)
Front-month lumber futures price (Jan 2020 – May 2021)
In fact, the international shipment of certain types of goods requires being seated upon pallets within shipping containers. Unbeknownst to materially all the world not familiar with the nuance of international trade, pallets are, just like the shipping containers they are regularly coupled with, nothing short of an integral cog:
Companies…have literally designed products around pallets…There is a whole science of "pallet cube optimization," a kind of Tetris for packaging; and an associated engineering filled with analyses of "pallet overhang" (stacking cartons so they hang over the edge of the pallet, resulting in losses of carton strength) and efforts to reduce "pallet gaps" (too much spacing between deck boards). The "pallet loading problem,"–or the question of how to fit the most boxes onto a single pallet–is a common operations research thought exercise.
And as reported on ShipLilly, a shipping and logistics blog on June 9th, 2021,
The cost of raw lumber has doubled and sometimes nearly quadrupled. Lumber price increments have exponential impacts on the cost of manufacturing wood pallets. Manufacturers are passing on these costs by way of increased asking prices…If pallets are available, a buyer can expect to pay 400% more.
Hastily-improvised workarounds swung into action, including repairing old pallets, building new pallets from discarded lumber, new loading schemes, and employing alternative means of elevating cargo, including plastic or concrete. This incidentally, put the shipping industry in direct competition with agricultural interests, as transporting produce is also dependent upon pallet availability and prices.
Ningbo Closes
It is yet too early to call what occurred in mid-August 2021 the capstone event, but for now that appellation suffices.
With the detection of a single Covid infection among workers–a worker reported to be 34-years-old, fully vaccinated, and asymptomatic–a large portion of China's massive Ningbo-Zhoushan Port closed for nearly two weeks. The impact of the partial shutdown of the third largest port in the world not only derailed the slow recovery from the Yantian cessation, but
stretched across the Pacific Ocean to Long Beach port in Los Angeles, where more than 30 ships were waiting to get into port to offload…elsewhere in Southeast Asia, anchored ships off Vietnam's largest two ports rose to six above the median.
WCI Composite Container Freight Benchmark Rate (per 40-foot, 2010 – present)
Necessity being not only mother but father, sibling, master, and servant to invention, creative solutions poured forth from the private sector. Large and small firms began chartering smaller ships to fit into smaller, less congested ports. And many corporate logistical programs, including that of Peloton, began dividing shipments into optimized shipping categories among train, truck, air, and sea routes. And on the demand side, retailers began stockpiling: withholding goods from store shelves and online listings in anticipation of the coming holiday season. (Amazon's decision to purchase 11 Boeing 767s earlier this year looks sagacious in retrospect.)
Early in the pandemic, it was noted that the impact of lockdowns would be proportionately more devastating for smaller firms. And as such, that consolidation and concentration–the frequent target of the very same left political thought that drove nonpharmaceutical interventions–were likely outcomes. And that is indeed the case arising of these secondary and tertiary effects.
[S]upply chain snags are likely to add dominance to big-box retailers while cutting out smaller companies that don't have the extra funds to charter their own vessels or ship via cargo planes. "Whenever we have a constrained supply like this it's always the big dogs that win," Douglas Kent, executive vice president of strategy and alliances at the Association of Supply Chain Management [said]. "The smaller firms just don't have the capital to keep up. They're already in survival mode. They're going to have to pass on these costs to customers and risk losing out to big-box retailers that can absorb these costs themselves. As a result we will likely see the shuttering of more companies due to these ongoing issues."
Predictably, container carriers are seeing a windfall. The same 40-foot container which cost, at most, $2,000 to ship goods from Asia to the US will now cost $25,000 if the exporting firm has guaranteed (or the importing firm paid for) on-time delivery. In 2020, the shipping industry earned an estimated $15 billion in profit; this year, the number is likely to top $100 billion.
Ongoing Port Congestion
Throughout September 2021 ports all over the United States have been experiencing record ship delays. By September 11th, the logjam at the Los Angeles ports exceeded 50 ships carrying as much cargo as was previously seen in a month. After peaking at 73 ships on Sunday, September 19th, half a week later there were still 62 ships waiting to dock and offload. That's up from an average of zero to one (on a particularly busy day), pre-Covid. And among them were craft and crew that had been waiting for as long as three weeks.
Drewry Hong Kong to Los Angeles Container Rate (40-foot, 2015 – present)
Yet even addressing the rigidities and stickiness discussed in an earlier section–maximum daily/weekly work hours and wages set by long-standing collective bargaining agreements–is mostly unhelpful, owing to the vast number of moving parts in the international supply chain.
[L]onger hours do little to address the backlog when truckers and warehouse operators have not similarly extended their hours. It's not optimal for truckers to pick up their loads at night, especially when they'd have to find alternative places to store the goods [as] warehouses are not open at night.
Additionally, broader labor shortages arising from the payment of Federal unemployment bonuses have been impacting every link in the international logistical chain. "Many companies," Business Insider reported, "have fewer workers [now] than before the pandemic started but face significantly more work due to the boom in demand for goods."
The Armor Yet Conspires
As of last week the spot rate for container rates was up 731% over the average of the past five years. As shipping cancellations have risen amid rapid changes in logistical plans, some ocean shipping firms are now requiring full payment up front, adding yet another level of difficulty to an increasingly intractable state of affairs. Amid this, retailers are attempting to stock up for the end-of-year holidays. Predictions regarding a return to normalcy range from 2022 to as late as 2023. Companies including Nike have already warned that certain products are likely to be unavailable before the holiday season.
The effect of blow after blow to global trade on the availability of goods is most visible in the following graph.
Manufacturing and Trade Inventory/Sales Ratio (2015 – present)
Three observations may be made: first, that for some years, the ratio of business inventories to sales in manufacturing, retail, and wholesale trade has been fairly steady. Second: when Covid initially struck, the ensuing policies resulted in the ratio of business inventories to sales rocketing to all-time highs. (Which is to say: goods piled high as consumption plummeted.) And finally, consumption soon soared as people at home began spending, fueled by boredom and stimulus payments. Businesses have reopened and many have kept up with demand, but the ongoing problems of shipping described heretofore have led the inventory-to-sales ratio dropping to all-time lows.
This week it was reported that at the fourth largest port in the US, in Savannah, GA, 20 ships are now delayed. "Dwell times" – the time elapsing between containers arriving at the port and departing by truck or train – have increased from four to as long as twelve days. Globally, a host of other quandaries potentially lie ahead. Typhoons, a shortage of truck drivers in Europe, government responses to new outbreaks of Delta and subsequent Covid variants all threaten to worsen the shipping crisis from where it currently stands.
CTS Average Global Container Price Index (Jan 2016 – July 2021)
There is an unavoidable price for the ceaseless avalanche of goods and services falling around us: it is exposure to an arrant, inherent level of complexity. Only the coordination of a superabundant array of prices, timing, capacity, and information keeps the globally-integrated supply chain functioning. A single, small misstep or error increases the likelihood of subsequent problems at every juncture in the process. The "two weeks to flatten the curve" decision along with other shortsighted, unnecessary (and, as it turns out, ineffective) policy options has generated countless knock-on effects. Those now include shortages of shipping containers, long and increasing port delays, a growing scarcity of essential supply chain components, insufficient labor, higher prices, and a mounting undersupply of final goods. While it may prove hyperbolic, for the first time this week the description of a "global transport system collapse" was employed.
Science and engineering have brought about an era in which doldrums no longer vex modern day mariners. Owing to innovation and entrepreneurship, there are no longer horse latitudes where payloads are dumped overboard by desperate crews. Yet those conditions have reemerged, borne not of nature but of power, mindlessly exercised. The idea that an economy could be indiscriminately shut down and turned back on without far-reaching consequences, as if a light switch or lawn mower, is utterly damnable. It could only come from the mind of an individual, or body of individuals, with no understanding of or consideration for the extraordinary interdependence of the productive sector.
Peter C. Earle is an economist who joined AIER in 2018. Prior to that he spent over 20 years as a trader and analyst at a number of securities firms and hedge funds in the New York metropolitan area. His research focuses on financial markets, monetary policy, and problems in economic measurement. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Grant's Interest Rate Observer, NPR, and in numerous other media outlets and publications. Pete holds an MA in Applied Economics from American University, an MBA (Finance), and a BS in Engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point.
"General Institutional Considerations of Blockchain and Emerging Applications" Co-Authored with David M. Waugh in The Emerald Handbook on Cryptoassets: Investment Opportunities and Challenges, edited by Baker, Benedetti, Nikbakht, and Smith (2023)
"Operation Warp Speed" Co-authored with Edwar Escalante in Pandemics and Liberty, edited by Raymond J. March and Ryan M. Yonk (2022)
"A Virtual Weimar: Hyperinflation in Diablo III" in The Invisible Hand in Virtual Worlds: The Economic Order of Video Games, edited by Matthew McCaffrey (2021)
"The Fickle Science of Lockdowns" Co-authored with Phillip W. Magness, Wall Street Journal (December 2021)
"How Does a Well-Functioning Gold Standard Function?" Co-authored with William J. Luther, SSRN (November 2021)
"Populist Prophets, Public Prophets: Pied Pipers of Lucre, Then and Now" in Financial History (Summer 2021)
"Boston's Forgotten Lockdowns" in The American Conservative (November 2020)
"Private Governance and Rules for a Flat World" in Creighton Journal of Interdisciplinary Leadership (June 2019)
"'Federal Jobs Guarantee' Idea Is Costly, Misguided, And Increasingly Popular With Democrats" in Investor's Business Daily (December 2018)
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As noted, John Cena appeared on NBC's Today show on Monday to make it clear that he still wants to spend the rest of his life with Nikki Bella and start a family with her. We have a full recap of the interview at this link and we have a recap of Nikki's surprised reaction at this link.
Cena was back on Today with Kathie Lee Gifford and Hoda Kotb earlier today, as seen in the video above. Cena talked more about his relationship with Nikki and their split, once again over a glass of wine. Cena thanked Gifford and Kotb for allowing him on to be honest when asked how he felt after Monday's interview. It's interesting that Cena played up how important Monday's interview was because they have Nikki scheduled for an interview on Wednesday.
"First I want to say thank you ladies for always having me on, always giving me a chance to be able to be honest and I think that's important. I don't know if people understand how difficult it is to lead a life in the public eye," Cena said. "I'm grateful but I'm also respectful of everyone's opinions on what happened yesterday. I did what I did yesterday for one person and one person only. It's because I love her and I think in times of separation, often we speculate on what the other person is doing and sometimes communication can get messed up.
Cena said he did see some of the post-interview comments that Nikki made and said he just wanted her to hear him, adding that he knows you can't force someone to love you.


text:
Some readers may be surprised to learn that the Shire Horse Society was formed as late as March, 1878. It was at first known as The English Cart Horse Society and became The Shire Horse Society of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland in 1884. Obviously this was not the beginning of the Shire Horse, as a type if not a breed, though until the name became officially established it was more often known as "The Old English Black Horse", "The Large Black Horse" or "The Fen Breed".
Robert Bakewell, of Dishley, was so successful in his essays in improving breeds of sheep and cattle by scientific methods, and also in his publicists, that he is often given the credit for likewise improving the heavy horse. Undoubtedly he did so, but other contemporary farmers in the Midlands were engaged in similar programmes for the improvement of horses by the careful selection of breeding stock. Bakewell, though by no means to be disparaged, was one among many. These Midland improvers of the heavy horse had ample good material to work on. Far from needing to increase the size of their animals, some of the steps they took were intended to reduce it. G. Culley, writing in 1786, records that of the horses bred on farms in the eighteenth century the largest went to London to be used as dray horses, and some of these reached 18 hands. The smallest ones were taken by the army, for cavalry and transport, and those of medium size were retained on the farm. The 18-hand draught horses were said to be able to draw a weight of three tons, but Culley thought they had less stamina and were more prone to ailments than the medium-sized horses.
Just how Bakewell viewed the problem is uncertain. M. E. Seebohm, in The Evolution of the English Farm (1952), writes:
Bakewell effected improvements in this animal (the local heavy horse of the Midlands), as with other stock at Dishley, and having strength and activity in his mind rather than height or weight, produced a somewhat smaller horse with a short thick body and short clean legs, and with a hardier constitution than the very large species.
On the other hand, Robert Trow-Smith, in English Husbandry (1951), refers to Bakewell's work in "bringing in Flanders mares to shorten the long back and restore the size of the old Shire." He concludes, "The size of the Shire has increased for some centuries, however, and Bakewell's work seems finally to have made it too large for anything but hard draught work."
If, as has been conjectured, the stallions on whom Bakewell based his breeding programme, and whose pedigrees he kept strictly secret, were trotting horses from Lincolnshire, he may indeed have sacrificed size for speed, at least temporarily. However, as already noted, he was only one of the Midland improvers. One of the most celebrated of the early Shire stallions was the Blind Horse of Packington (Packington being a village near Ashby-de-la-Zouch, in Leicestershire). He flourished between the years 1755 and 1770 and is asserted to have left a considerable impression on the breed.
Mr. R. S. Reynolds, writing in the first volume of the Stud Book of the Shire Horse Society, lists Leicestershire, Derbyshire and Staffordshire and the Fen counties as the home of the earliest draught stallions. He adds, too, that
Northamptonshire was always the home of heavy horses, and in this county lived the family of Laws of Thenford, who kept as many as five or six stallions at a time, all of which were led on their rounds by Mr. Joseph Laws's five sons. The records carry the family connection with the Shire horse up to the middle of the nineteenth century.
In Nottinghamshire as early as 1804 the breeding of heavy horses was encouraged. In that year a premium was offered at Retford for the best dray stallion.
William Marshall, in his Report to the Board of Agriculture in 1811, gives a glowing account of the horses in Lincolnshire, saying that "The finest and best horses in the kingdom, chiefly of what are called the blood kind, are bred upon the Wolds; a greater attention is paid to that species of horse by the Wold graziers than even in Yorkshire or Durham. . . ." Note that it was to Lincolnshire that Robert Bakewell is reputed to have gone for his mystery stallions.
Although, as mentioned previously, the heavy horses of the early nineteenth century would not look out of place in a modern stable, there has been some change of fashion over the years. In particular, the modern Shire horse does not carry as much feather, or long hair, around its hooves. An old-time prejudice against Shires with four white feet has passed. Black, too, was an unpopular colour at one time, which is rather strange, for, as we have seen, many of the Midland horses from which the breed originated were black. Nowadays popular preference seems to exemplify the old adage, "A good horse is never a bad colour." There is, however, a prejudice against broken colour, against a too light ground colour, and against chestnut. The carefully prepared standard of points for the breed is as follows:
Colour – Black, brown, bay or grey. No good stallion should be splashed with large white patches over the body. He should not be roan or chestnut.
Height – Minimum 16.2 hands and upwards. Average about 17.2 hands.
Head – Long and lean, neither too large nor too small, with long neck in proportion to the body. Large jaw-bone should be avoided.
Nose – Nostrils thin and wide; lips together and slightly Roman.
Eyes – Large, well set and docile in expression. Wall eye to be avoided if possible.
Ears – Long, lean, sharp and sensitive. Throat – Clean-cut and lean.
Shoulder – Deep and oblique, wide enough to support the collar.
Neck – Long, slightly arched, well set on to give the horse a commanding appearance.
Girth – The girth varies from 6 feet to 8 feet in stallions of from 16.2 to 18 hands.
Back – Short, strong and muscular. Should not be dipped or roached.
Loins – Standing well up, denoting constitution. Must not be flat.
Fore-end – Wide across the chest, with legs well under the body and well enveloped in muscle, or action is impeded.
Hindquarters – Long and sweeping, wide and full of muscle, well let down towards the thighs.
Ribs – Round, deep and well sprung, not flat.
Forelongs – Should be as straight as possible down to pastern.
Hindlegs – Hooks should not be too far back and in line with the hindquarters, with ample width broadside and narrow in front. "Puffy' and "sickle" hocks should be avoided. The leg sinews should be clean-cut and hard like fine cords to touch, and clear of short cannonbone.
Bone Measurement – Of flat bone, 11 is ample, although occasionally 12 1/2 inches is recorded – flat bone, i.e. heavier and stronger than pongy bone. Hocks must be broad, deep and flat, and set at the correct angle for leverage.
Feet – Deep, solid and wide, with thick, open walls. Coronets should be hard and sinewy with substance.
Hair – Not too much; fine, straight and silky.
A good Shire stallion should stand from 16.2 hands upwards and weigh from 18 cwt to 22 cwt when matured, without being overdone in condition. He should possess a masculine head and a good crest with sloping, not upright, shoulders running well into the back, which should be short and well coupled with the loins.
The tail should be well set up and not what is known as "goose-rumped". Both head and tail should be carried erect. The ribs should be well-sprung, not flat-sided, with good middle, which generally denotes good constitution. A stallion should have good feet and joints; the feet should be wide and big around the top of the coronets with sufficient length in the pasterns. When in motion he should go with force, using both knees and hocks, which latter should be kept close together; he should go straight and true before and behind.
A good Shire stallion should have strong character.
MODIFICATION OR VARIATION OF STALLION STANDARD OF POINTS FOR MARES
Colour – Black, brown, bay, grey, roan and chestnut.
Height – 16 hands upwards.
Head – Long and lean, neither too large nor too small; long neck in proportion to the body, but of feminine appearance.
Neck – Long and slightly arched, and not of masculine appearance.
Girth – 5 feet to 7 feet (mature), according to size and age of animal.
Back – Strong, and in some instances longer than a male.
Legs – Short, with short cannons.
Bone Measurement – 9 to 11 inches of flat bone, with clean-cut sinews.
A mare should be on the quality side, long and deep, with free action, of a feminine and matronly appearance, standing from 16 hands and upwards, on short legs; she should have plenty of room to carry her foal.
MODIFICATION OR VARIATION OF STALLION STANDARD OF POINTS FOR GELDINGS
Colour – As for mares.
Height – 16.2 hands and upwards.
Girth – From 6 feet to 7 feet 6 inches.
Bone Measurement – 10 to 11 inches under knee, slightly more under hock and broadside on, of flat hard quality.
A gelding should be upstanding, thick, well-balanced, very active and a gay mover; he should be full of courage and should look like, and be able to do, a full day's work. Geldings weigh from 17 to 22 cwt.
Outside of East Anglia and the Fens and a few of the northernmost counties, the Shire horse was, until superseded by the tractor, supreme as the recognized power unit of English farms. For most of England, Shire horse and cart-horse were indeed synonyms.
Writing in 1947 Mr. A. G. Holland said that 90% of the heavy horses in the London Cart Horse Parade (then held on Whit Monday) were Shires. In 1974 the proportion was around 80%. The preponderance reflects the status of the Shire in the country as a whole.
Showing began almost as soon as the Society was founded, the first of its annual Spring Shows being held in the Royal Agricultural Hall at Islington in 1880, when 114 animals were exhibited. The champion on that occasion was a magnificent stallion, Admiral 71, who was exported to Australia and sold there for the unprecedented price of £1,500. He was the son of another famous stallion who left his mark on the breed, Honest Tom, who had 58 sons and 51 daughters recorded in the Society's stud book. Harold, a Derbyshire Shire who won the championship in 1887, went on to head the list of winning sires for ten successive years, from 1893 to 1902.
These were years in which the Society was building up an impressive export trade, which hit a peak in 1888, when no fewer than 1,400 pedigree export certificates were issued. Most of the animals went to the U.S.A. and Canada, where horses were in strong demand with the opening-up of the prairies, but Australia, South America, Germany and Russia were also big customers.
The Shire was found to be the ideal multi-purpose animal. It offered everything but speed. It had strength, stamina, adaptability and docility. The last is one of its most important qualities. When not required to exert its enormous power it will stand quietly. It is extraordinarily patient, which makes it ideal for city work, for it can be trusted to wait, immobile, while waggons are being unloaded and deliveries made. Critics, of course, say that as soon as it stops moving it drops off to sleep!
Tales are told of the Shire's prodigious strength. The official brochure of the Shire Horse Society contains an oft-repeated story of how "at one London Show, weight-pulling tests were arranged to take place on granite setts, on tan, and on wooden blocks. These tests saw two Shire geldings, yoked tandem-fashion, and on wet, slippery granite setts, move off with 18 1/2 tons behind them, the shaft horse moving the load before the trace horse had got into his collar. Six tons were moved on the tan, and 16 1/2 tons on the wooden blocks. They also pulled against a dynamometer at the Wembley Exhibition. The maximum of the dynamometer was registered, and the pull exerted was considered equal to a starting load of 50 tons."
I am reminded of a popular "tall story" which had wide circulation in Wiltshire and Hampshire when I was a boy.
A carter with two Shire horses went into a wood to draw out a timber carriage on which was loaded a giant tree-trunk. He had just hitched the horses to the carriage when a thunderstorm broke, and he took what shelter he could find underneath the carriage. When he emerged he realized that the rain had so saturated the ground that moving the heavy load was going to be extremely difficult. However, he decided to try. Going to the horses' heads he started to urge them on. The horses took the strain on their collars and bent to the task. They began to move forward.
"Up there, Major! Gee up, Captain!" shouted the carter, and so continued all the way out of the wood, along the lane and into the village.
So preoccupied was he with his exhortations that he failed to look behind to see what was happening to the timber-carriage. When eventually he did so, having arrived in the middle of the Village, the carriage was nowhere in sight. All he could see were the leather traces, stretching like ropes of elastic down the village street and disappearing in the direction of the wood. What had happened was immediately clear to him. The leather, soaked by the rain, had stretched under the immense strain imposed by the horses, and the carriage must be still stuck fast in the mud.
"Be danged if I ever seed anything like this afore," he said, scratching his head. "I must go home and think about it whiles I has me dinner."
So he unhitched the horses and took them off to water, tying the ends of the traces to the church gate-posts.
During the dinner hour the sun came out and burned down fiercely, as it often does after a thunderstorm. When the carter came back after dinner, there was the timber-carriage, drawn up by the church gate. In the hot sunshine the traces had shrunk to their normal length and brought the timber-carriage home!
Exaggerated though the yarn is, it does draw attention to the phenomenal prowess of Shires in forest work. It was for this purpose, as well as for farm work on the prairies, that many of them were exported to America and Canada in the last two or three decades of the nineteenth century. And Shires are still much in demand in modern forests. They can go into fastnesses where even crawler tractors are at a disadvantage.
The fortunes of the Shire breed of horses, after sinking to a very low ebb in the 1950s and 1960s, are now on the upgrade. Those enthusiasts who kept the breed going, refusing to be daunted by the apparently complete triumph of the tractor, are now reaping their reward.
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Trojans debate: Josh Shaw, Los Angeles recruiting, and who owns L.A.?
USC football provides plenty of subjects to discuss and more than enough to debate.
Times beat reporter Gary Klein joins me for Episode Three of USC Now: Trojans debate, in which we will discuss hot topics surrounding the program and present two sides of an argument.
This week, it's the USC-UCLA edition.
Please note, the opinions expressed in the video do not necessarily reflect our own personal views.


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Q: Variance of standardized/studentized Residuals equal to 1 in Least Squares Regression In order to assess the "correctness" of a specified regression model, one can compute the variance of the residuals and compare it to the uncertatinty $\sigma$ of our data.
To do so, it is useful to work with standardized/studentized Residuals.
Assuming Homoskedasticity we get:
Standardized Residuals:
$$ R_{i,Stand} = \frac{R_i}{\hat{\sigma}}$$
Internally studentized Residuals:
$$ R_{i,ExtStud} = \frac
{R_i}{var(R_i)} = \frac{R_i}{\sqrt{\hat{\sigma}^2 (1 - H_{ii})}}$$
Externally studentized Residuals (follow a t-distribution):
$$ R_{i,IntStud} = \frac{R_i}{\sqrt{\hat{\sigma}_{(i)}^2 (1 - H_{ii})}} \sim t(n-p-1) \text{-distribution}$$
Now I found some literature stating that the $Var(R_{Stand})$ should equal 1, and some literature stating that $Var(R_{IntStud})$ or $Var(R_{ExtStud})$ should equal 1.
Which one is it ?

A: If you're talking about the variance of the random variable (taken with the explanatory variables fixed and the response as a random variable) then none of these have exactly unit variance.  What we can legitimately say under the linear regression model with OLS etimation is that:
$$\begin{align}
\mathbb{V}(R_i | \mathbf{x}) &= \sigma^2 (1-h_{i,i}), \\[6pt]
\mathbb{E}(\hat{\sigma}^2 | \mathbf{x}) &= \sigma^2, \\[6pt]
\mathbb{E}(\hat{\sigma}_{(i)}^2 | \mathbf{x}) &= \sigma^2. \\[6pt]
\end{align}$$
Moreover, under broad limiting conditions we also know that there is convergence $\hat{\sigma}_{(i)}^2 \rightarrow \hat{\sigma}^2 \rightarrow \sigma^2$ as $n \rightarrow \infty$.  From these results we can show that the variance of the standardised/studentised residuals approaches one asymptotically under the required limiting conditions.  However, from these results, it does not follow that any of the ratios you give have exact unit variance for any finite $n$.
In fact, the only case where we can calculate an exact distribution (and an exact variance) that is independent of the explanatory variables is for the externally studentised residuals,$^\dagger$ where we have:
$$R_{i,\text{ExtStud}} = \frac{R_i}{\sigma_{(i)} \sqrt{1-h_{i,i}}} \sim \text{St}(n-p-1).$$
In this case, using the variance of the Student's T distribution we have the exact variance:
$$\mathbb{V}(R_{i,\text{ExtStud}} | \mathbf{x}) = \frac{n-p-1}{n-p-3}
\quad \quad \quad \quad \quad
\text{if } n-p>3.$$
We can see that $\mathbb{V}(R_{i,\text{ExtStud}} | \mathbf{x}) \rightarrow 1$ as $n \rightarrow \infty$, but the variance is not one for any finite $n$.  In the other two cases the exact conditional distribution of the residual (given the explanatory variables) is complicated and depends on the explanatory variables.  However, as previously noted, we have convergence to unit variance in all cases under broad limit conditions.

$^\dagger$ You have your notation for internal and external studentisation around the wrong way; it is external if the variance is estimated without use of the present data point.

A: When you standardize, it's a mechanical operation, there's no $\chi^2$ and other fun stuff. It's just $r_i=\frac{R_i-\bar R_i}{s^2}$, hence, if you take a variance of this thing, then you get $var[r_i|R]=\frac{var{R_i|R}}{s^2}=\frac{s^2}{s^2}=1$
Here, $s^2$ is a sample variance, and although it's in denominator, it does NOT lead to $\chi^2$ because it's in a conditional expression. It's great because for  $\chi^2$ you need normal assumptions, and here we don't need any distributional assumption whatsoever. We don't even need the formulae I have given here, because you can derive the same result from simply arithmetic, no probability theory is needed at all

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Charles Coulombe is not a traditional Catholic. He sees no INTRINSIC Problem with the Novus Ordo, New Church, NewPapacy, or Vatican II. He admits, towards the end of this video that he MOST OFTEN goes to the Novus Ordo. "Communion" "reverently" given by Ms. Sheila in the Morning and a Little Tarot Reading with "Bishop" Hoeller in the Afternoon...or more likely Evening, No?
How Nice, Reverent, and Non-Threatening is "Bishop" Hoeller? See full-blown Occultism here. When Mr. Hoeller says that "Satan" is just a concept coming from the Christian mind so "a Satanist has to be a Christian first," you just got to wonder:
Further proof of Coulombe's involvement. Mr. Coulombe must feel comfortable transitioning between is "during the week" Novus Ordo and the Gnostic mockery of the Mass seen below:
http://callmejorgebergoglio.blogspot.com/2021/04/why-does-charles-coulombe-frequent.html
Sobering Quotations from the Newly Released Book o...
Novus Ordo Watch Publicizes the First Known Exampl...
New Book on the Potential Astrophysics of the Mira...
"Witnesses to the Miracle of the Sun"- In HD
Practice of the Occult Arts of Alchemy, Astrology,...
For the First Time in its History, RadTrad Thomist...
"The Fatima Cash Cow" - Updated in HD
Wolfgang Smith and Malachi Martin insist on the Ne...
The Gnostic Prophet Mani - Dr. Stephan Hoeller. Th...
While We were Sleeping -- or Chomping Apples on th...
RadTrad Thomist Calls Upon Charles Coulombe to Bre...
Professor Ignacio Ferrin Issues an Announcement an...
The Fatima Cash Cow.
Hard Science and the Miracle of the Sun Come Toget...
Traditionalist Occult Neo-Modernism. Don't Believe...
The Gnostic Gospels of Jesus Christ - Dr. Stephan ...
But..........What about "St. Benedict Center West"...
Charles Obliges a Priest's Request. Coulombe Renou...
Fatima Sketch - How to Draw an Imposter - In HD
Bishop Robert McKenna's Lectures (2005), in which ...
This Gnostic Movement is Complete Apostasy from th...
And He Hates St. Thomas and Thomism! Soooo, How i...
Charles Coulombe is not a traditional Catholic. He...
Now that Coulombe has been dragged out of the Gnos...
Identity Thieves in the Vatican and in the Carmel ...
Just when you thought that the Apostasy could not ...
Police of the Irish Republic try to Shut Down Mass...
Fatima Faces II. Still See No Difference?
Hard Evidence And The Refusal to Look
Aren't You Just SOOO Glad They Lost? Texas Baptist...
Physicist Author of "A Scientific Explanation of t...
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May one put cut flowers in a vase of water on Chol HaMoed?
Shulchan Aruch (Orach Chaim 336:11) permits putting branches into water on Shabbos, "as long as they don't have buds or flowers that will open because of the moisture from the water." Shulchan Aruch Harav (ibid. :18) and Mishnah Berurah (ibid. :54) clarify that this means putting them into a vase that already had water in it, but that one may not fill a vase on Shabbos and put the branches in it.
Elsewhere (654:1) the Mechaber adds that on Yom Tov water may even be added to the vase in which the lulav is kept, but that the water may not be changed; "but on Chol Hamoed it is a mitzvah to change the water so that the lulav stays fresh and beautiful."
Now it is true that a lulav doesn't have flowers on it. Nevertheless, if you're allowed even to change the water on Chol Hamoed and that's not considered "too much trouble" (טירחא יתירא), then it would seem logical that you can do the same for cut flowers, and that it wouldn't matter whether the flowers are going to open or not - it should be no worse than watering a field that needs it, which is permitted on Chol Hamoed (ibid. 537:1).
I'm certain that putting cut flowers into water is permitted on Chol HaMo`ed. Flowers presumably enhance one's enjoyment of the holiday, which would indicate that one can obtain them and put them in one's house. And if they're not put in water, they will wither and die, so not putting them in water would cause a loss.
To me, it doesn't sound like "work" at all, either, and takes no skill or effort to do.
The Rambam (Sh'vitat Yom Tov 7:20) permits all forms of personal makeup and beautification on Chol HaMo`ed, and putting flowers into water is, I think, similar but with less work.
Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged chol-hamoed melacha-creative-work agriculture gifts .
How does the prohibition of writing during chol hamoed apply for electronic devices?


What is it that makes a customer buy a product? Ultimately, it comes down to a number of different factors. The item has to be something they need or want, naturally. However, one of the things that can really help to sell an item, and one of the things that many companies are poor at doing, is providing compelling product descriptions for the products they are selling. Each of the product pages on a ecommerce website needs to have original content for the products, but too many companies out there simply describe the product without giving the listings any personality. That could be a mistake. Good copy does have the potential to sell products.
When writing copy for products, think about your ideal buyer and write the copy as though you were speaking directly to him or her. What is it that the ideal buyer would want to know about the product? Using a positive and friendly tone in the descriptions is a great way to make the reader feel as though you are having a conversation with them. It gives the product, and your brand, more personality.
One of the other things you should do to make your copy more interesting is add some type of incentive to it if you can. This could be anything that makes a buyer think twice before clicking away from your page, such as offering free shipping or a coupon. Adding benefits to the descriptions on your ecommerce website makes everyone happy.
Peoples' time is precious, so try not to waste a minute of it. When it comes to product descriptions, this means making your copy easy to read and scan. For example, you can use headings to break up any long chunks of text you might have. You can also use bullet points to hit on some of the most important information.
Even though you want the product descriptions to be easy to scan, that does not mean you can skimp on the pertinent details. You must include all of the most relevant information about the product so the consumer is capable of making a buying decision. For example, if you are selling USB cords, you had better make sure you include the length of each cord, as there is a huge difference between a three foot cord and a ten foot cord.
Different types of products may require descriptions of different lengths, so do not lock yourself into a single length. For example, fifty words might be more than enough to describe some blue wool socks, but it would hardly be enough to describe a Gibson guitar.
Companies may find that they could benefit from hiring outside writers to help with the creation of their product listings. If they do not have the time to do it on their own, hiring freelancers is a good and economical way to get content. Companies can find other ways to help streamline their business, as well. Using online order management software and inventory software from Appath is a great way to make managing a business across multiple channels much easier.
Summary: A huge part of making the sale after the customer arrives at your ecommerce website is the product description you use. An inaccurate or incomplete description will not net you the sale. You need to learn to write compelling ad copy for each of your products that will entice the buyer to make a purchase. You need to learn to use the right keywords without making them seem too awkward in the text, and you need to show the customer why they need your product, no matter what it might be. Appeal to their imagination.


text:
Bernie: a political revolution?
mayo 22, 2016 agosto 24, 2017 Marcel Mangold
[Spanish version] Feel the bern: a machine moves across the USA "Excuse me, I'm talking!" Bernie Sanders' reply to Hillary Clinton in early March couldn't be clearer: do not try to interrupt or silence us; we are going to be heard; we are not giving up this race. With his decisiveness and his introduction of […]
Fuente de la imagen: www.wsj.com
* Marcel Mangold
Magíster en teoría política de la Universidad de Stockholm. Está siguiendo estudios de doctorado en ciencia política en el Colegio de Södertörn. Ha traducido trabajos del filósofo francés Jean-Luc Nancy en Sueco. Ha trabajado especialmente el concepto de democracia y ha hecho un estudio de campo en Mali. Está intentando amplificar métodos y accesos de la ciencia política para estudiar lo político y la democracia incorporando la filosofía y la teoría francesa en un contexto sueco empírico y teórico. Analiza sobre todo cómo diferentes narrativas de tiempo y discursos de ciencias sociales se utilizan para construir necesidades y excluir escenarios alternativos. Focalizándose en el concepto de tiempo, analiza la manera que el Estado proactivamente crea temporalidades, agendas y escenarios excluyentes para definir lo posible a través de un ordenamiento de los territorios en los cuales las cuestiones y los desacuerdos políticos pueden tener lugar
Bernie: a political revolution? - mayo 22, 2016
Bernie: ¿una revolución política? - mayo 22, 2016
Suecia: Sin-papeles, Reva y "la ley ilegal"pa - junio 2, 2013
[Spanish version]
Feel the bern: a machine moves across the USA
"Excuse me, I'm talking!" Bernie Sanders' reply to Hillary Clinton in early March couldn't be clearer: do not try to interrupt or silence us; we are going to be heard; we are not giving up this race. With his decisiveness and his introduction of a "socialist" alternative for America, Sanders – or "Bernie" – has made his mark. He not only challenges Clinton, but the entrenched interests of the American political elite.
American presidential elections are usually entertaining, and this year is no exception. In the Democratic debates in January-March 2016 Clinton's messaging was often categorically challenged by Bernie, who showed that the game could be about more than finely-tuned political rhetoric that buries progressive ideals under a mass of slogans and platitudes. For the first time in years, it's exhilarating to be a member of the political Left the United States. Working class people are finally being presented with a political alternative to the neoliberal welfare-cuts of the last 30 years. Many are responding massively to it: not only is does Bernie enjoy support for his program to counter the dismantling of welfare and the increasing precariousness of the middle and working classes, he also sets a standard for a public, non-hierarchical political dignity that many Americans endorse in a time marked by dominance of political dynasties, such as the Bushs and the Clintons, and the increasingly base campaigns among the republicans (some of which are voting for Bernie for these reasons). Sanders' populist momentum is formidable—he has received the most individual donations of any candidate in history—but it will probably not be enough to topple the DNC, the pro-Clinton super-PAC's, and the finely-tuned Clinton political machine. The question is not only one of gaining the largest support in the number of possible votes. Complicated rules for voter registration (depending on in which state) and the support of the "superdelegates" both give Clinton an advantage that will most likely make the difference. However, with the courage to challenge Wall Street and the Super-PAC's, and with a resonant populist agenda, Bernie has proven to be both a vote for a people's America and a vote against the status quo, which Clinton cautiously defends. The opening of this space has led Bernie's campaign to emerge as a political "counter-resonance" machine1 that moves across the country to connect people from all kinds of situations and contexts into an ever greater resonance that builds its own possibilities besides, and not only against, neoliberalism.
There are some obvious reasons for the momentum of Bernie's campaign, or what he calls his "political revolution". First, it has articulated a clear strategy and a concrete program for the working and middle classes that rests on a convincing analysis of the accelerating class antagonisms in American society since the 1970's and the advent of neoliberal policy. While the cost of living has risen, economic opportunity for lower middle and working classes has sharply diminished, leading to increasing precarity and indebtedness for average families. Questions of student debt, free college and a universal healthcare are easy to politicize with examples taken from Europe or elsewhere to undermine any claim that the current situation is the only possible one. Furthermore, Sanders is reminding Americans what the democratic process is supposed to be like, through his incredible grassroots fundraising efforts and exuberant rallies, which are always filled with tens of thousands of [mostly young] voters. At a time when American democracy is buried in the plutocratic machineries of both parties, a platform based on a huge number of individual, smaller contributions and a vivid civic debate have not only been a question about involving the many, but a clearly political issue – of the actual power of the people – of building a whole different relation between money, the capacity and power of ordinary people and politics. No doubt, discontent with the established political candidates and parties have contributed to the force of this machine's momentum (on the other side of the political spectrum, a right-wing turn has incorporated a similar discontent in the Republican party, whose main candidates, Donald Trump or Ted Cruz [now out], are both disdained by the party establishment). In less than a year, Bernie has gone from being viewed as a mild nuisance, to a clear and present danger to the ruling elite. Whether or not he defeats Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, he has shifted the political mood and rhetoric about money and politics, and renewed the Left with a sense of agency and immediacy.
A leftist-dissensual space
To be sure, the presidential elections and the movements that have emerged over the last years are about more than foreign policy, jobs and other traditional electoral questions. The presidential elections are important not only for the political programs that are proposed, but also for the symbolic power of having a president that can incorporate dignity and hope for the years to come. The presidential in this sense frame the politics at large in a specifically symbolic way. With the election of Obama, this symbolic aspect is still very tangible. But the elections, and Bernie's candidature, are also linked to question of the very space of politics in a neoliberalized societal environment. Bernie's campaign is related to and resonates with larger popular movements and symbolical appearances of popular power that have emerged from 2010 until today. With movements like Occupy Wallstreet (fall of 2011), Black Lives Matter and the Fight for $15 minimum-wage campaign (since 2012) alongside a multiplicity of local movements, American public life has grown more "dissensual"2 than in very long. By actively problematizing the ways in which agendas are set and how politics has been privatized, these movements in different ways overlap with, and are part of, the "political revolution" that is the heart of Bernie's campaign.
The dissensual spaces that the movements open and work in have reintroduced agonistic division and conflict into American politics in several different ways with different strategies. Bernie's strategy, that has to operate in the circumscribed context of the nominations, is always polemical but hardly ever rhetorical or aggressive. In reintroducing conflict into American politics, Bernie combines the polemical stance with a required high moral standard and "politeness" (this combination is best summarized in his "Excuse me, I'm talking!" above). Being polite also means to let the nomination be about politics and the public's capacity to be involved in matters that are important for the society and thereby avoiding the campaign to be about personal details or "scandals". Bernie has therefore also made it a strategy to re-introduce facts to the nomination process as a public matter for people to actually be able to compare alternatives. Conflict and morals as part in the ways in which Bernie's campaign resonates with a larger dissensual space, are very clearly articulated through the hypothesis of a democratic America in which the main subject is always a "we" and never Bernie himself (with the now famous "Not me – us" slogan as a result). In this way, Bernie's movement has "collectivized" the personcentered presidential race into a public and collective matter.
Movements like Black Lives Matter stage conflict and open a dissensual space in a different way. For them, it is first of all a matter of opening a space that is always already foreclosed. Since there is no scene on which they can be visible and since being "polite" is not really any viable strategy for the advancement of black and poor people's rights, conflict and creativity in the ways in which it can be waged, is the main resource. By combining the use of social media and polemical slogans under which a number of people can gather ("Black lives matter" was first a slogan before it became a movement), and by using public urban spaces to make visible the political character of class, race and gender related matters have been effectively staged in a way that media and powerful interests have had difficulties to ignore and misrepresent.
Even if Occupy Wallstreet was a passing event, the legacy of the movement and its perseverance is still very strong in the sense that the light is put on Wallstreet and the financial sector (which is one of the main targets of Bernie's campaign) and in the sense that there has been a multiplication of occupations, "sit-ins", "die-ins", blocking highways and other collective modes of turning streets, offices, meetings, squares, etc. into political spaces. It seems that there is a spread awareness of the importance of waging a minimum degree of conflict and division on the terms of the situation in which one understands a political question in order open political spaces in neoliberalism.
A continued momentum?
The "political revolution" that Bernie refers to is hence taking place before, beyond, beside, and most probably after his movement, in particular in poor urban environments where the struggles concern questions of daily struggle. By connecting how police violence, neoliberal austerity measures, outsourced jobs, racism, pollution and the class-related difficulties of students, working and middle classes relate, a rich debate pared with spectacular protests have manage to set up (counter-resonance) machines that work in the margins of party politics. They have for example put the light on how the toxic combination of police violence, segregation, racism and neoliberalism relate and how a social focus on job creation and investments in urban environments could easily diminish the costs and increasing harm that this combination yields (in Baltimore for example, where the "Baltimore uprising" took place last year, budgetary costs for policing have increased by 300% since 1990)3. However, most certainly these movements are dependent on a larger framework in which they can inscribe their claims and construct a sense of a shared struggle across the nation (and possibly in concert with other countries). With the hostility of the Democratic Party to Bernie's campaign4, a post-Bernie movement has to continuously build a platform that can make the different movements and questions resonate.
What will happen after Bernie's movement, whether he wins or looses (but in particular if he looses, which is also more probable) is therefore largely a matter of how these local movements and energies can construct a shared framework and possibly become more influential both by ways of the formal political system (including Mayoral elections), and by constructing a strong platform for social movements to continue to act outside the formal system.
In many respects, the declining economic fortunes of the working and middle classes and the concomitant militarization of community police forces has coalesced in the current frenetic state of American politics. Recent examples of this tipping point abound, in the overcrowded prisons of the "carceral state" and such as during the events in Ferguson in 2014 and the protests in Baltimore in 2015, both of which resulted after police murder of young black males. In a different way, this is also the case when neoliberal governance of cities leads to a situation of unseen urban decay, such as with Detroit, or in the case of the polluted public water in Flynt, Michigan. The ways in which protests against police murder, which started as peaceful protests, were met by a militarized police and the use of the "National Guard" have also led to an increased awareness of the importance to create national political movements to connect the related factors that sustain and legitimize systematic oppression. As an example, the resistance of protestors to the bigotry of the candidates of the republican nomination campaigns to the presidential elections has been more outspoken and visible than in long.
With Bernie and the rejection of powerlessness, an American leftist space has re-opened. It remains to be seen if this space will remain viable and make possible a turn in American politics that was not even imaginable only a couple of years ago. If such a turn happens through the "democratization of the Democratic Party"5, through an improbable presidential victory or through a contestation beyond any of these two paths remains to be seen – and done
See William F. Connolly, Capitalism and Christianity American Style, Durham: Duke University Press 2008. ↩
See Jacques Rancière, Disagreement Minnesota Press 1999 ↩
According to an unpublished document by the Black Baltimore Paper. ↩
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/02/bernie-sanders-democratic-party-primary-president-iowa-caucus-newhampshire- primary/ ↩
http://inthesetimes.com/article/19071/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-new-york-primary ↩
Edición 81 Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, Internacional, Participación Política
← Bernie: ¿una revolución política?
Apuntes sobre el golpe de estado en Brasil →
Bernie: ¿una revolución política?
Marcel Mangold - mayo 22, 2016


text:
Q: Is the number prime - SPOJ - error " runtime error (NZEC)" I'm doing the program for SPOJ.com taks which should recognize Prime number. Unfortunately this SPOJ taks is in Polish language, hence I will try to translate what should be the input and outpu expectation:
Input:
n - the number of tests n <100000, in the next lines n numbers from the interval [1..10000]
Output:
For each number of the word "YES", if this number is prime. Word: "NO", otherwise.
Example:
Input:
3
11
1
4

Output:
YES
YES
NO

I wrote following code whcih during the test works perfectly fine. Unfortunately when I'm trying to submit this code on SPOJ webpage it is constantly returning me error "
runtime error (NZEC)" Can someone advise how I can improve it?
    Scanner in = new Scanner(System.in);
    int n = in.nextInt();

    if(1<=n&& n<=100000){
        for(int i = 0; i<n+1; i++){
            int v = in.nextInt();
            if(1<=v&&v<=10000){
                if(isPrime(v) == true){
                    System.out.println("YES");
                }
                if(isPrime(v) == false){
                    System.out.println("NO");
                }
            }
        }
    }
}
private static boolean isPrime(int v) {
    if (v < 2) return true;
    if (v == 2) return true;
    if (v % 2 == 0) return false;
    for (int i = 3; i * i <= v; i += 2)
        if (v % i == 0) return false;
    return true;

}

A: Have you learnt Sieve Method for Prime numbers.
Check here you will find the better solution.
public class PrimeSieve {
    public static void main(String[] args) {
        int n = Integer.parseInt(args[0]);

        // initially assume all integers are prime
        boolean[] isPrime = new boolean[n+1];
        for (int i = 2; i <= n; i++) {
            isPrime[i] = true;
        }

        // mark non-primes <= n using Sieve of Eratosthenes
        for (int factor = 2; factor*factor <= n; factor++) {

            // if factor is prime, then mark multiples of factor as nonprime
            // suffices to consider mutiples factor, factor+1, ...,  n/factor
            if (isPrime[factor]) {
                for (int j = factor; factor*j <= n; j++) {
                    isPrime[factor*j] = false;
                }
            }
        }

        // count primes
        int primes = 0;
        for (int i = 2; i <= n; i++) {
            if (isPrime[n]) primes++;
        }
        System.out.println("The number of primes <= " + n + " is " + primes);
    }
}

A: You should check all numbers from 2 to n, to see if the number isPrime or not.
Code
public class Test {

    public static void main(String[] args) {

        Scanner in = new Scanner(System.in);
        int n = in.nextInt();

        for(int i = 0; i < n ; i++) {
            int v = in.nextInt();
            if (v >= 1 && v < 10000) {
                if (isPrime(v) == true) {
                    System.out.println("YES");
                }
                if (isPrime(v) == false) {
                    System.out.println("NO");
                }
            }
        }
    }

    private static boolean isPrime(int v) {
        for(int i=2;i<v;i++) {
            if(v%i==0)
                return false;
        }
        return true;
    }
}

I hope this helps you.


text:
Home Uncategorized My LA to Z: Stephen Moyer
My LA to Z: Stephen Moyer
The British actor who plays southern vampire Bill Compton on HBO's True Blood admits his L.A. loves are mostly food-based or down on the coast. Catch him on the big screen in The Double, out now
Julia St. Pierre
Santa Monica/Venice Beach
I love to hire a bike and go down to Santa Monica pier and cycle up the boardwalk all the way to the Marina del Rey peninsula and back again. Down by the pier there are ten steel rings hanging from a giant frame in front of the trapeze bars. Basically, it's giant monkey bars for grownups. I go down there and I absolutely love it. The truth is, it's kind of the reason that I moved to the Westside. If you haven't seen the crazies doing the drum circle in Venice, it's a thing to behold.
Down right on the edge of the marina there's this little swimming beach, which is very still. This bit of beach has grills outside where you can take your own BBQ charcoal and grill your own stuff. I love it down there. It's very quiet. It won't be quiet now that I've said that, but I used to go there and hang a lot.
Neptune's Net
I've spent a few lunches there over the years. I love the place. Just because it's a way of driving up the PCH and stopping and getting some food, looking at the locals. One of my favorite things to do, really, is look at the crazies, and I say that with affection. I love going up there and looking at all the guys who hang out there and polish their bikes and show them off. I don't have a motorcycle anymore. I gave up the right to do that when I had kids. I want one, but I'm not allowed!
Map | More info
The Huntington Library
I love those grounds, they're beautiful. I also love the GettyCenter, it's a great place to watch the sunset.
I am particularly bad on my skateboard at a skateboard park. I have fallen quite comically a number of times.
Airport Park
The dog park there is just great because it feels like it's been designed for dogs and not their owners, which I like.
Soho House West Hollywood
When we're in town I do like the Soho House because I love playing pool and it's somewhere I can go play and eat good food. It's a good meeting place to see people and just be off the beaten track a little bit.
Tasting Kitchen
I love Gjelina, obviously, on Abbot Kinney, everyone loves that, but my favorite is the Tasting Kitchen. I think the Tasting Kitchen is just doing the most incredible stuff and I miss it when I'm not in town. They do a meat plate on Sundays for brunch and they do this crazy egg plate. You can have your eggs like four different ways. They're unbelievable. The meat plate is steak, bacon and sausages, all on one plate. No, I'm not a vegetarian, funnily that.
Pretty much the best coffee.
Go Kart World
One of the things I love doing is racing go-carts down in Carson. Sometimes I just get by myself, get on the 405, and drive down to Carson. There's a go-cart center there. There's one in Ventura as well, that's electric.
The Music Box
I love the Greek and I love the Wiltern because they are small and you feel like you are right up in everybody's business, which I really like, but the Music Box is very much like the BrixtonAcademy that I used to go to a lot in south London.
Images courtesy (in order): (1) santamonica.com, (2) visitmarinadelrey.com, (3) neptunesnet.com, (4) huntington.org, (5) none, (6) landscapeonline.com, (7) sohohousewh.com, (8) thetastingkitchen.com, (9) lacoffee.com, (10) gokartworld.com.com, (11) themusicbox.la
L.A. Culture
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text:
2022 IIC coverage: Diversifying fixed income portfolios with alternatives
Home Investments Conference Coverage 2022 IIC coverage: Diversifying fixed income portfolios with alternatives
By: Gideon Scanlon
Gideon Scanlon
"What we've observed year to date is nothing short of historic in nature," said Steve Guignard, senior director of client solutions at Sun Life Capital Management, referring to the poor performance of the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index, which dipped 12 per cent in 2022.
"The market's erratic and unpredictable behaviour is very similar to my golfing skills," he said during a session at the Canadian Investment Review's 2022 Investment Innovation Conference. "I want you to imagine that you're playing a golf game, but you only have access to a driver. Adding alternative fixed income in your portfolio is like adding clubs to your golf set. It enables you to adapt your playing style to the situation that you're facing."
While Guignard said alternative fixed income is often ill-defined, he offered up his own definition. "For the benefit of this presentation, we are going to define it as everything fixed income outside of traditional investment grade and publicly traded Canadian corporate, federal and provincial bonds. As you can imagine, that leaves us with a big opportunity set."
Read: Inflation driving interest in alternative fixed income: white paper
He then pointed to private credit as one of the most popular and better known alternative fixed income asset class. As a result of regulatory changes in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, banks have materially tightened their underwriting standards, he noted, leaving the door open for non-bank lenders. "Investors have stepped up and provided the capital."
Another alternative asset class highlighted by Guignard was securitized assets like mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities and collateralized loan obligations. "They've had pretty bad press following the 2008–09 financial crisis but, since then, there's been significant changes in both the regulation, as well as the underlying structure of the securities. At current valuations, they look quite attractive right now."
For institutional investors in the search of yield and with a higher risk tolerance, he suggested considering high-yield bonds. "They're just standard bonds, but issued by below investment grade companies."
Another option he recommended for yield-seekers was bank loans. "They're similar to high yield bonds, but with two major differences. The first one is that they're secured on the capital structure — typically, assets are backing these loans. The second important difference is that the interest rate that is being paid on these loans is typically floating."
Read: Considerations for integrating ESG into fixed income
Throughout the first 10 months of 2022, the popularity of bank loans increased, said Guignard, noting that the aggressive rate hike cycles by central banks certainly helped. "As interest rates were rising, the interest paid to investors was also rising."
Alternative fixed income is commonly regarded as a niche strategy, he said, which is one reason institutional investors may not be taking full advantage of these opportunities. "Some of the asset classes within this universe certainly are, but there are also others that are quite big, especially when you compare it to the traditional Canadian fixed income market."
The U.S. bank loan and high yield bond markets are both valued at around C$2 trillion – significantly larger than the entire corporate Canadian fixed income market, he noted. "Alternative fixed income is really an opportunity that spans the risk and return spectrum. Each of these asset classes are quite interesting and not all are niche."
Read more coverage of the 2022 Investment Innovation Conference.
2022 IIC coverage: How the pandemic kickstarted an automation revolution
2022 IIC coverage: Navigating the complexities of ESG in fixed income
2022 IIC coverage: Finding differentiated sources of growth and alpha in emerging markets
2022 Investment Innovation Conference,
Fixed income,
Bonds,
Canadian fixed income,
Risk management,
Absolute return
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