text:
China's organ harvesting crimes announced to UK Parliament's China Research Group for the first time
Chinese woman seeing protesting against China's persecution and organ harvesting of Falun Gong practitioners, in front of the Kings College, UK (14 Dec 2019)
A landmark speech was delivered today (5 Nov) by leading international human rights lawyer, Sir Geoffrey Nice QC, who presented the damning findings of the China Tribunal to the UK Parliament's newly-formed China Research Group for the first time.
The presentation marks the latest, and highest profile occasion in which China's organ harvesting crimes have been brought to the attention of one of the world's leading Governments, as the call for a UK-China relationship reset continues to intensify.
The China Tribunal's Judgment, which exposed an elaborate state-backed programme to incarcerate and murder its own innocent citizens in an illicit trade of forced organ removal for over 20 years, was heard by the China Research Group in a briefing held at 10am today.
Sir Geoffrey was also joined by China Tribunal panel member, Professor Martin Elliott, and Counsel to the China Tribunal, Hamid Sabi, who first delivered the damning Judgment to the United Nations Human Rights Council in September last year.
The China Research Group, led by Tom Tugendhat MP, was formed in April to examine the UK's future relationship with China, as well as investigating the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP's) long-term economic and diplomatic goals following the COVID-19 pandemic.
Speaking in April, Mr Tugendhat, who also chairs the UK's Foreign Affairs Select Committee, called out "Beijing's long pattern of information suppression" in addition to stating that China "deliberately falsified the data" relating to the outbreak of COVID-19.
The presentation of China's organ harvesting crimes to the China Research Group comes after growing national awareness of the Chinese Government's policy of internal suppression, increasing rejection of international human rights, and its cover up and handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Commenting on the China Tribunal's Judgment, Sir Geoffrey Nice QC, declared, "For years, it may have suited governments and global organisations to turn a blind eye to the crime of forced organ harvesting in China, and instead argue that there was no real evidence of these horrifying crimes."
"Following the China Tribunal's Judgment, which found, beyond any reasonable doubt that in China, forced organ harvesting from prisoners of conscience has been practiced for a substantial period of time involving a very substantial number of victims, it is no longer possible to ignore these crimes and it will be for the China Research Group, and the UK Government now to decide whether to investigate and reset their relationship with the CCP," he added.
In 2019, the independent Tribunal saw over 50 witnesses testify. Huge volumes of written evidence were analysed, including research showing the deliberate falsification of China's public organ donation data that helped the CCP to cover-up the killing of innocent people, primarily peaceful Falun Gong practitioners, to support a trade in human organs.
"The China Tribunal's Judgment now exists in the public eye so that these horrifying crimes are no longer hidden to the world… Our Government, and the medical community which I belong to, simply cannot continue to ignore them," added Professor Martin Elliott, China Tribunal panel member.
Tags: ChinaCOVID-19United Kingdom


text:
Q: set cookie if user presses the closeBtn If usser has closed the popup via closeBtn dont show it again till tomorrow.
And if it is posible to make it show popup after 2 visited pages. The setTimeout for the start is ok.
jQuery(function ($) {
    var check_cookie = $.cookie('newsletter_popup');
    if (check_cookie == null || check_cookie == 'shown') {
        setTimeout("beginNewsletterForm()", 120000);
    }

    $('#newsletter_popup_dont_show_again').on('change', function () {
        if ($(this).length) {
            var check_cookie = $.cookie('newsletter_popup');
            if (check_cookie == null || check_cookie == 'shown') {
                $.cookie('newsletter_popup', 'dontshowitagain');
            }
            else {
                $.cookie('newsletter_popup', 'shown');
                setTimeout("beginNewsletterForm()", 120000);
            }
        } else {
            $.cookie('newsletter_popup', 'shown');
        }
    });
});

function beginNewsletterForm() {
    jQuery.fancybox({
        'padding': '0px',
        'autoScale': true,
        'transitionIn': 'fade',
        'transitionOut': 'fade',
        'type': 'inline',
        'href': '#newsletter_popup',
        'onComplete': function () {
            $.cookie('newsletter_popup', 'shown');
        },
        'tpl': {
            closeBtn: ''
        }
    });
    jQuery('#newsletter_popup').trigger('click');
}

A: You can make a function in JAVASCRIPT that checks whether you already shown your popup message or not along with the getCookie function and setCookie
//execute this function when your document loads
popupChecker();

function popupChecker()
{
   if(getCookie("popup") != "true")
   {
        //show pop up
   }
}

//chage closeBtnId with your close btn ID

$("closeBtnId").click()
{
    //set cookie that expires in 1 day
    setCookie("popup", "true", 1);
}

This is the function for get and set of cookies paste this to your .JS file or just create new CLASS of Cookie for clean codes.
function setCookie(cname, cvalue, exdays)
{
   var d = new Date();
   d.setTime(d.getTime() + (exdays * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000));
   var expires = "expires="+d.toUTCString();
   document.cookie = cname + "=" + cvalue + ";" + expires + ";path=/";
}

function getCookie(cname)
{
   var name = cname + "=";
   var decodedCookie = decodeURIComponent(document.cookie);
   var ca = decodedCookie.split(';');
   for(var i = 0; i <ca.length; i++)
   {
     var c = ca[i];
     while (c.charAt(0) == ' ')
     {
        c = c.substring(1);
     }
     if (c.indexOf(name) == 0)
     {
        return c.substring(name.length, c.length);
     }
   }
return "";
}

What do you mean in "And if it is posible to make it show popup after 2 visited pages" ? on my understanding you want to check if the user already visited in your page twice? and if yes? you want to show the pop up message. so i just modify the popChecker and the click event of the closeBtn.
function popupChecker()
{
   if(getCookie("popup") == "true")
   {
      //check if visit count is equals to 2
     if(getCookie("visit_count") == "2")
     {
        //show pop up
     }

   }else
   {
       //show pop up and add 1 to visit_count cookie
       var visitCount = getCookie("visit_count");
       setCookie("visit_count", visitCount + 1, 1);
   }
 }

//chage closeBtnId with your close btn ID

$("closeBtnId").click()
{
   setCookie("popup", "true", 1);
   setCookie("visit_count", "1", 1);
}

For more understanding in Cookies using JS you can visit this site
https://www.w3schools.com/js/js_cookies.asp

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


A health check with the vet, vaccination, a free 800g sample bag of Proplan puppy food & £5 off voucher, 4 weeks free insurance with Petplan, a free pipette of premium flea/worm spot on treatment.
A health check with the vet, vaccination, a free 400g samole bag of Proplan kitten food & £8 off voucher, 4 weeks free insurance with Petplan, a free pipette of premium flea/tick/worm spot on treatment.
*Post operative check ups with the nurses are free of charge, however, if a Vet requests to see your pet back a charge of £37.90 will apply. Prices are subject to change as medication, consumables and professional fees may increase and decrease, please speak to the reception staff for a current estimate. Surgery prices are estimates and may change dependant on an individual pets requirements; please ask a vet for more accurate quote.


Pong Dam reservoir is 65-km from Panthankot and 115-km from Dharamsala on the Beas River. The Pong Dam Lake is significant for a wildlife sanctuary with wild life species like Nilgai, Sambar, Barking Deer, Wild Buar, Clawless Otter, and Leopard. The reservoir is developed on a large scale for promoting water sports for tourists. This lake sanctuary is a big attraction for migratory ducks from Siberian region during winter. One can see thousands of ducks in the swamp area between Shah Nahar barrage and Pong Dam and the surrounding shallow waters of the lake.
Road: Kangra is well connected by road with Dharamsala, which is 18 km away.


text:
Job Outlook, Demand and Salary for Data Scientists and Data Analysts in Malaysia
Job Outlook, Demand and Salary for Data Scientists in Malaysia
Find out What is the Job Outlook and Salary for Data Science and Data Analytics in Malaysia so that you can Make the Right Choice for your Course
Written by EduSpiral Consultant Services. WhatsApp 01111408838 for the Best Advise
Digital information has grown exponentially, and the rise in the Internet of Things (IoT) technology is likely to accelerate this. However, with so much data without insight, it is of no value, which explains why we are seeing a sharp rise in demand for Data Scientist, Data Analyst, Data Artists and Data Visualiser vacancies, all over the world. These professionals collect, filter, analyse and make sense of a business's data, helping to turn the vast amounts of data into actionable insights, whether that's changes in customer behaviour or new opportunities. These opportunities would not have come about without data science.
There is a tremendous demand for Data Scientists and Big Data Specialists worldwide now and in the future, with hundreds of thousands of new job opportunities emerging globally. In Malaysia alone, this need is expected to reach at least 20,000 data professionals and 2000 data scientists. Job demand as well as salary for qualified Data Scientists or Big Data Professionals in Malaysia is high Moreover, employers will be looking for creativity, collaboration, human interpretation and communication skills, in candidates. The jobseekers to stand out from their peers will be those who are not only able to provide solutions to challenges but communicate how and why to implement them.
For students who are thinking about a career in data science, there's never been a more exciting time to explore that opportunity.
For more information contact 01111408838
Please fill up the Form below and I will WhatsApp you and provide you with sound advise on how to choose the best private university or college in Malaysia to study at. If you do not give your mobile number or full name as in IC, your query will not be answered. Our knowledgeable & experienced counsellor will send you a message on WhatsApp & provide assistance from there.
Full Name of STUDENT as in IC. (If you are the parent, please give the child's name)(required)
Student's Email (If Parent, Please Provide your Child's Emal)(required)
Highest Qualification (required) SPM O-Levels STPM UEC A-Levels SAM AUSMAT CIMP etc Others
I am the(required) Student Parent of Student Relative of Student Friend of Student
What is the Job Demand for Data Scientists in Malaysia?
Malaysia's big data analytics market is expected to reach a value of USD1.9 billion by 2025. That's just one part of the global market with multibillion dollar potential. IDC expects the global big data and business analytics solutions market to be generating USD274.3 billion revenue by 2022.
The Data and Digital Technologies in the country's Digital Economy Blueprint are major drivers to propel Malaysia's plans for expansion for the digital driven economy. Data Science expertise will be a high-demand skill in this landscape, and one which is already experiencing remarkable growth in both demand for talent and potential salaries.
Between 3.3 million and 6 million jobs are expected to be created in Malaysia thanks to Industry 4.0. Data science and analysis will continue to a major career growth opportunity in this landscape, as new and expanding data-driven roles power our connected jobs future.
Job Demand According to Multimedia Development Corporation
Malaysia's national ICT agency Multimedia Development Corporation (MDeC) has unveiled a plan, supported by seven public and private institutes of higher learning (IHLs), to increase the number of local data scientists from the current 80 to 2000.
Statistics show that there will be about two million job openings for data professionals and that the demand for people with this knowledge and skill will outstrip supply by a ratio of two to one. It's a global phenomena which is already in motion and Malaysia has set its sights on developing 20,000 data professionals and 2,000 data scientists.
There is a tremendous requirement for Data Scientists and Big Data Specialists worldwide now and in the future, with hundreds of thousands of new job opportunities emerging globally. Job demand as well as salary for qualified Data Scientists or Big Data Professionals in Malaysia is high.
Furthermore, according to the 2019 Emerging Jobs in Malaysia Report by LinkedIn, the world's largest professional network, Data Scientists is listed as one of the Top 5. The findings underscore the demand for jobs which require hybrid skills, primarily to help organisations in Malaysia navigate their digital transformation journey. LinkedIn analysed millions of unique, user-input job titles from the last five years, and found that while the top five emerging jobs are all related to technology, many of them require management and communications skills. Their actual roles are varied and diverse, reflecting a labour market that values talent with a hybrid set of complementary skills.
Job Demand for Data Science and Data Analytics in South East Asia
According to a report by the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, leaders in both the private sector and public sector feel that data science and analytics will change the face of business and government, but skills shortages continue to delay its adoption and utilization.
The report found that data science and analytics skills are in high demand, but supply is critically low with employers facing severe shortages.
Its projections suggest that between now and 2022, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines will need 20,000, 15,000, and 340,880 data scientists respectively – and the lack of talent will make a severe dent in the way businesses leverage data to transform their digital DNA.
What are the most in demand job Skills in Malaysia?
A report from the recent Digital Workforce of The Future by LinkedIn, which revealed that a combination of skills encompassing Big Data, data analytics and web development registered a 21% growth in demand. In Malaysia, the top five in-demand digital skills are big data, software and user testing, mobile development, Cloud computing and software engineering management.
What is the Salary for Data Scientists in Malaysia?
Asean Data Analytics Exchange (ADAX) CEO Sharala Axryd believes data professionals such as data engineers, data analysts and data scientists are the "sexiest jobs" of the 21st century. She said that Data science fresh graduates can demand starting pay in the range of RM4,000-RM8,000 — making it the highest paid entry level job in the country today. In addition, an experienced professional in the field can demand up to RM15,000 a month.
Many employers are building their teams from 'scratch', accepting candidates with entry-level industry experience. The large salary range reported by employers for a data scientist from more than RM 15,000 per month to less than RM 5,000 per month may reflect a lack of precision in defining the role of a data scientist. While compensation will differ by candidate experience and performance, it is important that this role is not undervalued. Data science competencies such as statistical modelling and machine learning require a high education investment which should be recognised.
What are the Requirements for Data Scientists and Data Analysts in Malaysia?
Requirements for data science and analytics jobs are often multidisciplinary and they all require an ability to link analytics to creating value for the organization. The analytics and technology skills vary widely, but candidates must also demonstrate skills related to problem-solving in the workplace, including soft skills such as communication, creativity and teamwork. This holistic skill set is rare, so you should expect to compete fiercely for T-shaped individuals, as they are now often called, meaning those with a principle competency, plus well-honed broad skills to help them cross functions or domains.
Grab Example of How Data Science is Important
Grab's Wenceslao David, for example, joined the company as a data engineer in May 2015, after working as a database administrator for a couple of years.
Wenceslao quickly moved up the ranks to become a data scientist in October 2016, and in May last year became a Data Science Lead in the company in Singapore.
Along with a team of nearly 50 other data scientists from about 10 countries, Wenceslao is helping Grab develop machine learning algorithms and intelligent systems that can predict traffic, understand customer's and driver's preferences, and even contribute to Government initiatives aimed at managing and reducing traffic during peak hours.
Lye Kong-Wei, Grab's Head of Data Science, highlighted to Tech Wire Asia, how critical data science is to the future of the company.
"We're evolving to become a superapp, and to get there, we need to be able to predict all sorts of things and simulate all sorts of situations. Data science plays a critical role in that mission," exclaimed Lye.
There's no denying the fact that data scientists can truly catapult companies into the future. However, there's not enough talent in the world to support every ambitious company in the market.
How to Become a Data Scientist or Data Analyst in Malaysia
Step-by-step Guide on How to Become a Data Scientist or Data Analyst in Malaysia after…
What is the Job Demand for Accountants in Malaysia?
High Demand for Professional Accountants in Malaysia Equals to Job Security The career of a…
High Job Demand for Computing in Malaysia According to ICT Job Market Outlook 2014 report
Increased Job Demand for Information Technology (IT) & Software Engineering Professionals in Malaysia THE information…
Top 15 Hot Jobs in Demand 2018/2019 & their Average Salary According to Kelly Services Malaysia
List of 15 Top Jobs High in Demand For 2018/19 According to Kelly Services Malaysia…
JobStreet.com Job Outlook 2018 Salary report
JobStreet.com Job Outlook 2018 Salary report JobStreet.com, Asia's leading talent sourcing partner revealed its Job…
Tags: job demand for data scientists in Malaysia, job outlook for data scientists in Malaysia, salary for data scientists in Malaysia
Previous How to Become a Data Scientist or Data Analyst in Malaysia
Next The Best Pathway to Become a Data Scientist in Malaysia is Getting a Degree from a Top University
Electrical & Electronic Engineering
12th Malaysia Plan: E&E to contribute RM120b to GDP by 2025 Increasing Job Demand
These 8 Jobs will be in Demand in Malaysia when you Graduate by 2030
Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM): Unemployment Rate Drops to 3.6pc in September 2022

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Services | Mums Montessori Childcare Centre, Ltd.
Give your child a unique opportunity to learn and grow in a healthy, happy atmosphere. Enroll your child at Mums Montessori Childcare Centre, Ltd., a unique educational facility in North Vancouver, British Columbia.
Our child care centre offers both a full-time and a part-time program. Our teacher-to-child ratio is three teachers for every 20 children. The full-time program is offered five days of the week, all day, and the part-time program is offered two or three days of the week, all day.
Upon registration, the children will be gently introduced to their daycare environment for the first week by gradual entry. This means the child will come to school with the main caregiver (mother, father, etc.), who will then stay in the centre with him or her. This provides a friendlier transition from home to day care.
While your child gets this opportunity to bond with the teachers and classmates, it gives you a chance to connect as well. In addition, our regular monthly newsletter keeps you informed about upcoming activities.
The role of our staff is to create an atmosphere of order and joy in the classroom. Teachers help and encourage the children in all their efforts, allowing them to develop self-confidence and inner discipline. The teachers will carefully observe each child, their levels, and their requirements. From there, they slowly introduce new activities and presentations based on their assessment of the child's progress and interests.
Each teacher invites the child to participate in every learning centre of the classroom, such as math, language, sensorial, practical life, and geography.
Observations help the teacher to know when and how to intervene as needed, and will help even the most timid child to develop a sense of self-worth. This ability is one of the most important talents the Montessori teachers acquire during a rigorous course of training.
Our teachers are competent, trained professionals with expertise in the education of young children. They understand the play and learning potential of their teaching environment. They are caring, nurturing, and devoted to meeting the children's and parents' needs. They coordinate their skills and strengths to reach a common goal. This provides a solid, organized learning environment upon which to plan and implement a curriculum where children feel emotionally and physically comfortable.
Contact us in North Vancouver, British Columbia, for more information about our educational facility.


We believe a commitment to the environment and a commitment to the local community are responsible business practices. Origami Catering donates under-expired perishables to Portland Rescue Mission, St. Francis Dining Hall, PCC Cascade Food Bank and University Park Adventist Community Services. Each year Origami Catering donates over $100,000 worth of perishables to food pantries and shelters around Portland.
Origami Catering is a mentor for the Jobs Plus program at PCC. As a mentor, Origami trains and prepares unemployed, disabled and low income families for the workforce. Origami Catering is also a sponsor for Write Around Portland, a writing program for hospitals, youth shelters, senior centers, prisons, and treatment facilities.
We are grateful to have received support from Mercy Corp Northwest, Portland Development Commission (PDC), and Micro Enterprise Services of Oregon(MESO), a small business development center providing small business support in the Portland Metro area. Contact us for information on how to get involved with any of these community outreach programs.


When many of the world's top achievers seek a strategic expert to help them accelerate their results, they are eventually drawn to Tony Jeary. Tony Jeary is the authority on Results and has committed his career to studying and helping others achieve more. If you want to better your life, your career and your results, you need to know Tony.
Tony was raised by entrepreneurial parents who thrived on identifying and pursuing new opportunities to serve others. Tony's father taught him the powerful principle that has driven Tony' professional and personal life: "Always give more than expected." Exceeding expectations is the common thread that every Tony Jeary client experiences first-hand.
Tony has traveled and advised people around the world (some 40 countries) for over 25 years. He has published 38 books, now in over a dozen languages.
Top achievers, CEOs from the Fortune 500, and entrepreneurs from the Forbes Richest 400 travel to Dallas to spend time with Tony in his unique, one-of-a-kind, Strategic Acceleration Studio. Even the U.S. Senate has commissioned Tony to bring his methodology to Washington.
Tony has been described as a 'gifted encourager' who facilitates positive outcomes for others. His list of personal and professional relationships approaches 20,000 people whom he connects with and nourishes out of his sincere interest and desire for their success. Tony's clients include individuals and organizations who are involved globally. Tony personally coaches the presidents of organizations like Ford, Wal-Mart, Samsung, EDS, ASTD, New York Life, Firestone and Sam's Club, to name a few.
Tony Jeary has personal experience with both success and failure. Tony made and lost millions before he was 30. Today he walks the talk and practices the distinctions that characterize Success, both personally and professionally. He is blessed with a terrific marriage of 20 years and two great daughters with whom he has co-authored. He lives and works from his estate (including his Strategic Acceleration Studio) in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area.


Save your budget and try your hand at homemade wedding invitations. From beautiful burlap to awesome 3D cards – we have some awesome ideas for you to check out. All you need to do is edit the guest list! The key to creating a wow wedding is to focus on the little details and how they fit with the vibe of your celebration, starting with your wedding invitations. Adding a few simple touches in order to customize and personalise your wedding invites will wow your guests and get them set for the celebration to come.


text:
Q: Monotonically increasing function i am trying to find an increasing function $\psi(\theta)$ such that $\psi(\theta) \in (-1, 0)$? I found $\psi(\theta) = \frac{1}{\theta}$ but it is going out of desired range.

A: What about y=x defined within your range (you can use an indicator variable for your range)? It's definitely monotonically increasing.

A: If you want a monotonic function with domain in the whole real set and range in $(-1, 0)$, one obvious choice is the logistic function:
$$f(x) = \frac{1}{1 + \mathrm e^{-k(x-x_0)}}$$
Since the logistic function range is $(0,1)$, you should offset it by subtracting 1:
$$\psi(\theta) = \frac{1}{1 + \mathrm e^{-k(\theta-\theta_0)}}-1$$


text:
https://www.thetelegraph.com/news/article/Man-accused-of-threatening-to-kill-U-S-Rep-14903082.php
Vet accused of threatening to kill U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis in voicemail, faces federal charges
Complaint says profanity-filled voicemail included threat to shoot Davis
John O'connor, Ap Political Writer
Updated 9:06 pm CST, Thursday, December 12, 2019
Tarr
SPRINGFIELD, Ill. (AP) — A 64-year-old Army veteran has been charged in federal court with making a threatening communication against an Illinois congressman,
Randall E. Tarr, of Rochester, Illinois, is accused of leaving a voicemail message at U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis' office on Nov. 25 threatening to shoot him. Tarr was released on his own recognizance Friday.
Contacted at his home Thursday, Tarr said he saw a television ad in which Davis, a Republican from Taylorville, claimed that Ukraine, not Russia, was responsible for meddling in the 2016 U.S. elections, and it angered him enough to call.
"I said I had been a sharpshooter in the Army. I didn't realize I said anything about shooting him. I might have. I don't even own a weapon," Tarr told The Associated Press. "I wish I could just take it all back and just say he's a lousy (expletive) for backing the Russian theory."
According to an affidavit filed in support of the criminal complaint, a profanity-laced voicemail was left at Davis' Decatur office in which the caller berated Davis for "backing the Russians over our own intelligence" and adding, "I'm a sharpshooter. I could, I'd like to shoot your (expletive) head off."
The message was forwarded to the U.S. Capitol Police, who contacted the Rochester Police Department and asked officers to locate Tarr, identified through caller ID.
They found him at his residence and recorded that he owned no firearms. Rochester is 210 miles (338 kilometers) southwest of Chicago.
FBI agents interviewed Tarr the next day and contend that he admitted making the call because the commercial angered him.
"I screwed up," Tarr said. "I don't even have a weapon to do it, is the silliest thing."
He next appears in court Dec. 17 to face one count of communication of a threat to injure a person, punishable by up to five years in prison, and one count of making a threat to a federal official, which brings a maximum term of up to 10 years in prison, according to a statement from the U.S. attorney's office for the central district of Illinois.
Davis was on a ball field practicing with the congressional baseball team Alexandria, Virginia, on June 24, 2017, when a man from Illinois opened fire on the players, seriously wounding House Majority Whip Steve Scalise of Louisiana and three others.


Urbmouth was presented Sunday 14th March, 2010, as part of the AV festival in Newcastle (UK). An intoxicating cordial that debunks the Campari myth.
Urbmouth is a panacea for urban ills made entirely with ingredients sourced, siphoned and scraped from the abdomen of Amsterdam: from mugwort to thistle roots, herb bennett to rhubarb. The process of sourcing the plants for this medicinal aperitif is both a poetic exploration and a galenical excursion along vegetal and historical routes of Amsterdam.
This entry was posted on Sunday, March 14th, 2010 at 08:08 and is filed under Project posts.	You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.


CVE Technology Group, Inc., considered among the fastest growing high-tech after-market service providers for cellular handsets and consumer electronics, has relocated its headquarters from Riverdale, N.J., to Enterprise Business Park in Allen, Texas.
According to CVE officials, 300 employees currently occupy about 40 percent of the 196,000 SF flex-space facility at 915 Enterprise Blvd., which also serves as a service center, and the company is averaging 20 new hires weekly in response to new and expanded contracts with cell phone carriers. At the Allen location, CVE expects to employ 600 by the end of this year, and 1,200 by the end of 2015. The company currently employs 1,100 people throughout the U.S.
Although CVE maintains a national receiving center in Plano, Texas, and service centers in Fort Worth, and Riverdale, N.J., Alvarado said the key factor in site selection was Allen's competitive lease rates for spaces that were ready to move in immediately. Allen's Enterprise Business Park afforded less than 30-minute commutes to DFW International Airport and Dallas Love Field, and many dining and retail options within minutes at the nearby Watters Creek and Village at Allen centers. Alvarado said the Allen Economic Development Corporation also offered a strong economic incentive package.
Bowman said Enterprise Business Park has attracted several large employers in addition to CVE, including Experian Information Solutions, Frontier Communications and Jack Henry & Associates. Combined, the four companies currently employ over 2,500 people.
According to Allen Economic Development Board President Scott Sutherland, the city has fostered a true live, work, play community that has untold potential for additional expansions and relocations.
Lee & Associates Director George Tanghongs represented the landlord, IndCor Properties, and CVE on the transaction.


text:
The latest in film, art, photography, books and ideas: from Nollywood to Hollywood, street art to new museums, breakthrough best-sellers to spoken word.
1-54 London is Celebrating 10 Years of Contemporary African Art
By Team TRUE
Don't Miss 1-54 At Christie's in Paris Next WeekThe Art Advisor Leading One of Africa's Most Exciting New Contemporary Art GalleriesThe New 1-54 Art Fair Online Offering Is Worth a Visit
These New Perspectives on Africa Will Open Your Mind...
The Performance Artist Speaking Up For Africa's Outcasts...
The Somali Creative Using Art As a Weapon...
Meet the Woman Who Had the Courage to Write About Intimate Violence...
This Photo Exhibition is a Must-See...
The Science-Fiction Author Reaching For The Stars...
The South African DJ turned international art curator
By TRUE Africa
What Is the Urgent Task At Hand For Us Africans?How These Two Women Intend To Shine a New Light on Contemporary African ArtWhy This Filmmaker is Transforming a Family Home Into a Space for Nigerian Cultural Preservation
This Tunisian Singer Has Just Released Her Lockdown Recordings
It's hard to believe that it's been nearly ten years since the world watched the events of the...
By Claude Grunitzky
Sharing African Stories Online Just Got Easier...
Meet America's Favorite Yoruba Tech Soul Pioneer...
This 4th of July Livestream Will Celebrate the Friendship Between Africa and Ame...
Don't Miss 1-54 At Christie's in Paris Next Week
More Art
Why You Should Attend This Online Summit
The 2020 Future Summit, which starts at 5am EST, 12pm EAT, on Thursday, October 1st, is a virtual gathering of...
Why This New Film Is Challenging Old Notions of Representation...
Meet the creator of this year's best reviewed film...
Can Black Panther Heal the Wounds of African Descendants?...
More Film
The Somali Creative Using Art As a Weapon
Most people know Somalia for its decades-long civil war. As a result of the conflict and instability, many citizens...
This Senegalese Photographer is Showing Some of His Best Work in Japan...
Why I Decided To Launch a Toy Company For Black Girls
I launched this company after an interesting conversation I had while having a drink with a family member of a...
By Susette Adjoa Nichols
Meet the Founder of the Coolest Parisian African Concept Store...
Why Studio 189's fashions never disappoint...
A Design Life with Peter Mabeo...
Meet the Woman Who Had the Courage to Write About Intimate Violence
Soon after she started dating Eric Schneiderman, the powerful attorney general of New York State, Tanya Selvaratnam noticed a troubling...
We Interviewed Nigerian Novelist Ben Okri About a New Book on the Climate Crisis...
We Interviewed Scottish Actress Freya Mavor About a New Book on the Climate Cris...
Why you need to support this Harlem restaurant right now
COVID-19 has brought death to more than 15,000 New Yorkers over the past two months, but it has...
How Olivier Palazzo is reinventing the culinary experience, one dish at a time...
ROFLM needs your help to feed schoolchildren across Ghana...
Senegal enters Ghana and Nigeria Jollof War...
More Food


text:
Città d'Arte dell'Emilia Romagna
Castles & Hamlets
History & Monuments
Cinema & Theatre
Motors & Tech
The Nine Hills competition, a Romagna "myth". When stress exalts beauty
The Nine Hills is not just a bike competition, but a myth that originated in the heart of Romagna, and grew to such an extent that it is followed throughout Italy.
Barche del Museo Marineria di Cesenatico
The starting point is at Cesenatico, and it is a 202-km hand-to-hand combat against time and Apennine uphill, whereas the gentleness of the landscape clashes with the fatigue. Up and down, up again and swerving for about nine hours, lambasted by frenzy and adrenalin.
Just 40 years old, the Nine Hills race has never been better, attracting thousands of enthusiasts, amateur and professional bike lovers, and Italians and foreigners, to race or just to watch.
It started in 1971 with the first official edition through the initiative of the Fausto Coppi bike-tourism group founded in 1965 in the organization's headquarters still today, a bar on the canal port designed by Leonardo Da Vinci in 1502 and which continues to be the main header of the city life of Cesenatico: since then a forceful crescendo of a total of 10,000 subscribed members, from all over the world.
The race is held yearly in May, inspired by the motto "Only for passion," the last editions of which were dedicated to the Cesenatico champion, Marco Pantani.
The competition is structured in two different routes, a short route of 130 km, and a long one of 200 km passing through the attractive sites of the Romagna Apennines.
Cicloturismo sulle vie del ciclista Vittorio Adorni
For the brave who are able to take the tougher route, there are precisely nine hills to be conquered: it starts from Cesenatico, passing through the hills of Polenta, Pieve di Rivoschio, Ciola, the terrifying Barbotto, Monte Tiffi, Perticara, Monte Pugliano, Passo delle Siepi, and Gorolo, defying the slopes and a gradient of 18% above sea level and reaching up to 3,840 meters, when finally the road turns back to Cesenatico, with the finish line on the seafront promenade in Carducci Avenue.
As to the others, the route is "light" covering four hills and a gradient of 1,871 meters.
However, it is certainly not an easy stroll altogether.
As we said, it is a myth, and whoever wishes to take the challenge will appreciate some advice: firstly, if you are not a lover of uphill climbs, you better not try. At Pieve di Rivoschio you still have energy. At Barbotto you will look deep in your heart and ask "why?"
Cesenatico - Porto Canale Leonardesco
At Monte Tiffi you will have to decide whether you will make it, and at Perticara you take heart since the finish line can be reached if you are ready for a supplementary dose of sportive torture. At Maiolo you will proceed with calm and at Secchiano you will look to the heavens thinking that your agony is about to end. Once you reach Gorolo, whatever remained of you will go down to history. And you will certainly rejoice (map).
The Nine Hills race today is a sportive reference point and the attraction it exudes is hard to resist. It is a test of determination, an effort soothed by the gentle beauty of the landscapes, but is also a simple pretext to enjoy the variety of food-and-wine products and beauty of the region, from the sea to the mountains, of the land of Romagna.
The Nine Hills is not just a bike competition, but a myth that originated in the heart of Romagna, and grew to such an extent that it is followed throughout Italy
Massimo Fellini
Freelance journalist, social media manager in spite of everything. Distinguishing: he likes to remember that even Superman, sooner or later, may became a common Clark Kent.
Forlì Art Nouveau and Art Nouveau in Forlì
Hidden treasures of Vintage
Bagno di Romagna and game fishing
Social Wall >
COOKIEMSG Ok COOKIE-READMORE
® All Rights Reserved - P.I.02052390347


text:
Renewable Energy overview
Bioenergy / Energy from waste
Hydropower / Pumped Hydro Energy Storage
Renewables for industry
Renewables in buildings
Solar overview
Concentrated solar thermal
Large-scale solar
Solar PV R&D
System security and reliability
Knowledge & Innovation overview
Bioenergy Roadmap
Distributed Energy Integration Program (DEIP)
Distributed Energy Integration Program (DEIP) overview
Finance reporting
Home > News > ARENA CEO Ivor Frischknecht addressing R&D funding launch
ARENA CEO Ivor Frischknecht addressing R&D funding launch
The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) today announced nine cutting edge research and development (R&D) projects to be supported through its latest Industry-researcher collaboration R&D funding round.
An announcement was made earlier today: R&D-industry collaboration bringing ideas to the market.
Minister for the Environment Greg Hunt, Western Australia Minister for Energy Mike Nahan, LandCorp CEO Frank Marra and Curtin University Professor of Sustainability Peter Newman joined ARENA in Perth to mark the occasion.
ARENA CEO Ivor Frischknecht's address
Thank you all for coming, particularly Ministers, thank you for making the effort to be out here.
Exactly one year ago I was at RMIT in Melbourne and opened this round for R&D in Collaboration with Industry. I remember that date, because it was my birthday. And so, it's great to be able to have a birthday present of launching these nine projects and announcing the $17 million. So thank you for the great birthday present.
For those of you who don't know, ARENA has a unique role to invest across the Innovation Chain, and from early stage research all the way through to near-commercial technology. Any one of these two hundred projects that are in the R&D space could be a game changer. But before I go on to the projects themselves, let me make one thing clear – ARENA is not your typical grant giving agency.
We were established with the objective of making renewable energy more affordable. And so we can't do that by simply funding blue sky research–we won't get there in the short term. Turning great ideas into commercial reality can be incredibly difficult and it can take a long time. So we always look for at least matched funding for our projects because we know that having skin in the game gets better results in the long term. And everything we fund has to have a pathway to being fully commercial.
This R&D round focuses on industry partnership projects. We wanted to firmly align our investment in research and development with the needs of industry and help forge stronger partnerships between the two.
The nine projects to receive funding from ARENA through this round focus on integrating renewables or integrating energy into networks or into industrial processes and they help drive down the balance of system costs. So now I will run through them briefly.
I know many of you are from the projects and have worked hard over the last year with my team to bring it together through the application process and the negotiation process so I thank you for persevering through that and I also thank you for being here today. So I'd like you to stand up or wave if you are already standing when I come to your project so that everybody can get a sense of who you are and come talk to you afterwards, if they have a particular interest in what you are doing.
Thanks to Minister Hunt, you already know about the Curtin University and the LandCorp projects – that's about integrating solar and storage into a strata title situation. So we won't go any more into that one; there's $900,000 from ARENA out of a $2.6 million project. So if everyone who's involved in that, I'm guessing it's a good number, could either stand up or wave and I think we could give them some applause.
We have a project with the University of South Australia together with Glaciem Cooling Technologies, they're a refrigeration company. They're looking at developing low-cost phase-change material, able to store solar energy for the industrial refrigeration market. So this is interesting – we're actually storing energy in the form of thermal energy, as opposed to in the form of a battery, it's much cheaper to store energy that way, but of course you need to have a use for that heat, for the cooling, in order to make it work. So that's $1 million out of a total project size of $2.1 million.
University of Wollongong, together with Sydney Water Corporation and some international technology partners are working on a new type of sodium-ion battery–so not lithium-ion, sodium-ion—near lithium in the periodic table. It's a new type of sodium battery that's modular, the idea is very low-cost storage. That's a $2.7 million grant. Anyone here from that project?
Congratulations to you!
The ANU has done particularly well! They've got two integrating renewables-type projects. The first one is with Reposit, so Reposit is a software company that figures out how to get more value out of a battery, grade the energy, make it available to networks for example. And they are going to focus on Bruny Island in Tasmania, because Bruny Island is an off-grid situation, they have a very high penetration of renewables, and a very good wind resource; so how can you actually use renewables and storage in combination, renewables at a very high penetration level, to supply secure energy to the people there. They have a particular problem, in that lots of holiday-makers go there, so there are times of the year when they have lots of demand, and if they have lots of demand and there's no sun or wind at that moment, what do they do? And so it's about designing a whole network that way. Anyone from that project here?
So that's a $2.9 million project – a $2.9 million grant.
The other ANU project is a partnership with about a dozen network companies, which is a tremendous achievement in and of itself, to get a dozen energy networks to work together on one project as well as some technology companies, and that is about estimating the power produced by rooftop solar. So one of the big issues that we have in that system-wide context is figuring out what the virtual power station that Minister Nahan alluded to—when is it going to be producing, how much, and in what location? So that's what that project is focusing on. A million dollar grant, out of a $3.3 million project. Anyone from that project here?
The third ANU project, together with FRV, a large-scale solar developer and Vast Solar, Vast Solar is Australia's leading home-grown solar thermal developer; is about bringing down the operation cost. So this is trying to figure out when modules aren't working, when they're dirty, when there are leaves on them, when mirrors are broken in solar thermal. So that's a $900,000 grant out of a $3.1 million project. Anyone here from that project?
The University of Western Australia is working together with the local wave company, Carnegie, to determine the optimum size and location of wave energy generators. Now we already have an ARENA-supported project with Swinburne University in Victoria, to try to figure out how wave energy generators work in an array–there's a wave version of shadowing and interaction. So there's that project, and there's this one which is complimentary in terms of trying to figure out sizing relative to the local geology and hydrology, and to figure out where it should go in the bay and that sort of thing. I know there are some Carnegie people here and a few UWA people here as well. So that was a $1 million grant.
Congratulations to all of you. There are still some others, I'll get to those in a second. They can tackle industrial processes, which is a particularly interesting area, because industrial energy use accounts for about 40 per cent of Australia's energy use, which is about two times commercial and residential put together. So it really matters. Natural gas is the predominant fuel for that sector, where much of it is used to process heat. So we're looking at thermal energy now.
So a couple of projects, the first is Queensland University of Technology is leading a project together with various players in the sugar industry—Manildra, Sunshine Sugar, and Utilitas, which is a local utility up in Queensland, to figure out how you can turn the sugar trash that is the stuff that's left in the field, into usable energy. And in particular they're going to generate thermal energy through that process. The sugar industry already uses the gas – for those of you that don't know the sugar industry – that the gas, as opposed to the trash, the gas is the stuff that's left over after you squeeze the syrup out of it. So it's in a fundamentally both different location and different substance. That is used for energy production on a routine basis and is economical, or almost economical. So this is about bringing the next phase of waste into the economics, into being commercially viable.
And lastly, oh, I should just say, a $2.1 million grant out of $5.7 million project. Anyone from that project here? Yes, well done.
Thank you for making the trip from far away.
Lastly, perhaps most exciting out of all of these—but they're all great projects, I should say!—is the one focused on alumina refining. So this is about turning bauxite into alumina. It uses a huge amount of heat. Aluminium refining and smelting is obviously big industry in Australia, so this is about exploring options that use solar thermal to generate that heat, as opposed to vast amounts of gas, or some plants use coal. So that is together with Alcoa which is obviously a leader in the sector and is together with the University of Adelaide. Anyone here from that project?
So that's the biggest project in the round by far, $4.5 million grant out of $15 million total project size, so a very essential project.
So outside of this R&D round, ARENA has been working to establish closer links between industry and end users, and renewable energy researchers, and also the technologies provided. So it's good to see that these projects are advancing with that collaboration.
So that's the thumbnail sketch of the new projects, and in total $17 million out of $54 million project size, so you can get a sense that our money is pretty well leveraged, by a factor of almost three.
Thank you very much for joining me here today.
ARENA media contacts
media@arena.gov.au
Media release – ARENA CEO Ivor Frischknecht addressing R&D funding launch (PDF 115KB)
About ARENA
We invest in projects to support the next generation of energy technologies.
We fund projects and share knowledge that drives innovation and commercialisation in renewable energy and low emission technologies that align with our strategic priorities.
We present knowledge sharing from experts in energy technology, innovation and business.
Stay up to date with this valuable knowledge by following us on social, or by signing up to ARENAWIRE or the ARENA Insights newsletter.
Sign up for ARENAWIRE
Get the latest in energy innovation straight to your inbox
Email required.
First name required.
Last name required.
State or territory *
VictoriaNew South WalesQueenslandSouth AustraliaWestern AustraliaNorthern TerritoryTasmaniaAustralian Capital Territory State or territory required.
check box label
I agree to ARENA's privacy policy terms Please agree to the privacy policy terms.
Australian Renewable Energy Agency © 2022


text:
Charles Alexander and Susan Thackrey: February 2, 2017 (Updated over a year ago)
The Poetry Center presents Charles Alexander and Susan Thackrey reading and in conversation. Alexander reads from Pushing Water (Cuneiform Press, 2011) and unpublished work. Thackrey reads from Andalusia (Chax Press, 2015). The readings are followed by a conversation in response to questions from the audience.
Charles Alexander (00:23:12)
Charles Alexander introduces, then reads "Pushing Water 50," from his book Pushing Water, followed by two unpublished poems, "Pushing Water 75" and "Pushing Water 76," more recent work written partly in response to the 2016 U.S. Presidential election, alongside the poet's reading in Shakespeare's comedies.
Susan Thackrey (00:29:43)
Susan Thackrey provides background regarding the series of translations and new poems (from Arabic originals, to Spanish, to English, plus her own original "poems in the presence of poems") that make up her recent book, Andalusia. She then reads the second half of Andalusia, including: "12, (33) Regalando Un Espejo/The Gift of a Mirror," "12, Thank you for...," "14, You say you came," "15, (32) La Tunica Roja/The Red Tunic," "15, Layla," "16, (44) La Azucena/The Lily," "16, What warrior so," "17, (5) Despedida/The Farewell," "17, How do you...," "18, No man has...," "19, (60) Un Jardin/A Garden," "19, I, too, love...," "20, (81) El Luto En Al-Andalus/Mourning in Al-Andalusia," "20, Alba," "21, (41) La Hermosa En La Orgia/The Beauty of the Revelry," "21, I am the dancer...," "22 The young deer...," "23, (39) Castidad/Chastity," "23, When I came to...," "24, (4) La Nuez/The Walnut," "24, Eyelid," "25, (15) Peticion De Un Halcon/Petition for a Falcon," "25, As the smallest bird...," "26, (53) Fragmentos De La 'Qasida En Nun'/Fragments of the 'Qasida en Nun'," "26, It tears at my heart...," "27, What has been...," "28, (46) La Luna/The Moon," "28, Look how...," and "29, Where object...."
Charles Alexander and Susan Thackrey take questions from the audience. They discuss working in longer movements, the poem as a field in which things happen, being a participant engaged in reading, using the energy of self-doubt, reading aloud, songs of the Troubadours, problems concerning work that attempts to speak for the cultural experience of others, and allowing the poem to shape or organize itself.
Tags: andalusia, arabic poetry, astrophysics, benjamin hollander, bookmaking, cairo, egypt, charles alexander, charles olson, chax press, cuneiform press, dante alighieri, djinns, ecology, emilio garcía gomez, epic poetry, h. d. (hilda doolittle), ibn arabi, jacques lacan, jazz, john berger, john coltrane, letterpress printing, love poetry, lunar cycle, magda bogin, male gaze, martin murray, mysticism, ode, poetics, pre-renaissance arts, robert duncan, robin blaser, satan, sicily, spain, spanish language, sufism, susan thackrey, the middle east, the song of roland, translation, troubadours, u.s. presidential election, william shakespeare
Added to Poetry Center Digital Archive on February 27, 2017.
Benjamin Hollander Memorial Tribute: February 5, 2017 Frances Richard, The George Oppen Memorial Lecture: December 17, 2016 Dale Smith, on Robert Duncan and Charles Olson: February 8, 2018 Orlando White and Patrick James Dunagan: April 27, 2017 William Rowe and Helen Dimos: October 26, 2017
A year ago, diadios wrote…
Hello, great articles!
para una despedida en Tarifa podéis contactar con la gente de https://www.diadios.com/ que son expertos en la organización de despedidas de solteras y solteros, eventos y actividades para grupos, te aconsejaran también sobre playas en tarifa, lugar donde alojar, cenar, disfrutar a tope de noche y todo lo que necesitas en vuestra estancia de fiesta en Tarifa, es gente muy maja y residentes en Tarifa así que nadie como ellos podra ayudarte a aprovechar de lo mejor de este paraíso!! Un saludo
Contributor: Steve Dickison
Susan Thackrey
CharlesAlexander20170202.mp3 (53.15 MB – MP3 audio)
SusanThackrey20170202.mp3 (68.05 MB – MP3 audio)
Conversation20170202.mp3 (55.02 MB – MP3 audio)
Still 3.png (3.24 MB – PNG image)


text:
7Evan Medeiros
2David "Mike" M. Lampton
2David Shambaugh
1Li Bin
1Peter Welch
1Bonnie S. Glaser
1Jim Himes
1Raja Krishnamoorthi
1J. "Stapleton" Stapleton Roy
1David Finkelstein
Evan Medeiros
July 1, 2020 Last Aired July 6, 2020
House Hearing on U.S.-China Relations Post-Coronavirus
The House Intelligence Committee held a virtual hearing to examine post-coronavirus U.S.-China relations as it relates to national security and intelligence. Research experts spoke about China's…
April 3, 2018 Last Aired April 4, 2018
Yukon Huang and Evan Medeiros on the Future of U.S-China Relations
Yukon Huang and Evan Medeiros talked about the future of U.S-China relations.
U.S.-China Relations
The Center for Strategic and International Studies hosted a panel discussion on the domestic, military and economic policies impacting U.S.-China relations. Panelists shared research from…
Nuclear Weapons in China
Nuclear experts talked about the U.S. and China's nuclear weapons policies and ways to promote dialogue and understanding. Rose Gottemoeller in her remarks said she is working to intensify…
March 28, 2014 Last Aired March 29, 2014
U.S.-China Relations, Closing Remarks
Evan Medeiros, senior director of Asian Affairs for the National Security Council, talked about the state of U.S.-China relations. "Y35 Years of Diplomatic Ties" were the closing remarks of "35…
April 25, 2011 Last Aired May 11, 2011
Foreign Policy Debates in Japan
Panelists discussed Japan's approach to foreign policy issues. Topics included Japan's view of China, relations with the U.S., and the country's defense system. They answered questions from…
April 25, 2011 Last Aired April 27, 2011
Foreign Policy Debates in China
Panelists talked about foreign policy issues in China. Among the topics they addressed were the interests of various factions within the country, and the effects of those factions on…


Taking prescription drugs off the streets,. that's the goal of a new drop box that has been donated to the Port Huron Police Department. Port Huron Police Chief Joe Platzer says citizens can stop by the police department at 100 McMorran Boulevard during normal business hours to properly dispose of unused or unwanted pills. The drop box is a result of a grant from CVS Health that was submitted by the department's Lieutenant Roger Wesch. The public can drop off medication with no questions asked. Chief Platzer says the department does not accept syringes and adds that proper disposal of drugs helps fight the opioid epidemic.


When I've removed games from my list after the server update, most of the RPOL screen goes blank, just leaving me with the background and the logo.
Yeah, me too. Seems to acknowledge the attempt to remove the game on a refresh though.
Hi all - looks like this problem is a side-effect of the move to the new server ... someone's reported it on the General thread here for jase to investigate: link to a message in another game (msg# 74).


text:
Q: "java.io.IOException: error=12, Cannot allocate memory" when run app(play framework ) on ec2 instance when i "play run" my app on ec2 instance, and accessing from browser, it will send the exception as follows:

Caused by: java.io.IOException: java.io.IOException: error=12, Cannot allocate memory
      at java.lang.UNIXProcess.(UNIXProcess.java:164) ~[na:1.6.0_24]
      at java.lang.ProcessImpl.start(ProcessImpl.java:81) ~[na:1.6.0_24]
      at java.lang.ProcessBuilder.start(ProcessBuilder.java:468) ~[na:1.6.0_24]
      at sbt.SimpleProcessBuilder.run(ProcessImpl.scala:383) ~[na:na]
      at sbt.AbstractProcessBuilder.run(ProcessImpl.scala:137) ~[na:na]
      at sbt.AbstractProcessBuilder$$anonfun$runBuffered$1.apply(ProcessImpl.scala:168) ~[na:na]

i don't know if it is the limitation on memory of ec2 intance (612M), but why the wide space of memory  is needed when initializing a simple play app?
thank you in advance!

A: I have solved this problem.
Actually, first i try to compile and package a sing file, and then scp to ec2 instance, but it failed also. That's because "there is native a single-file format for play application".
Fortunately i find the relative answer, using 'play dist' to create a standalone version for play application (http://www.playframework.org/documentation/2.0/ProductionDist).
Thanks all!


During Super Bowl XLIII in 2009, Miller High Life made a huge splash with a one-second ad, where a beer-truck driver quickly shouted the words "high life." In fact, the novelty spot boosted post-game sales by 8.6%. And NBC didn't even air the ad in many major markets, as it didn't want to disrupt other 30 and 60-second ad commitments. Since then, marketers have experimented with shorter video formats in other marketing channels, like five- to 10-second online videos.
Fast forward to Fox's announcement last week that it would offer six-second TV spots to advertisers during NFL games and other sporting events. This comes after testing the format on the Teen Choice Awards last month. Fox was able to charge a relative premium for the six-second ads, which are about the same length as ads on YouTube, meaning a younger demographic can sit through them.
So why did Fox do this?
With almost 16 minutes of commercial airtime per hour of programming, networks are struggling with dwindling audiences, and viewers who fast-forward through commercials when they pause live TV or when they DVR a show. From 2012 to 2016, the number of people without cable or satellite TV has increased by 8.4 million, and by the end of 2016, nearly 20 million households didn't have cable or satellite TV. So with millions of consumers cutting the cord and migrating to other platforms like Netflix (NFLX) that are commercial-free, or even ad-supported platforms like Hulu, TV audiences are shrinking, while the cost per ad continues to rise.
Networks like Fox must think differently. Since their revenue model is at stake, they must provide value. By offering six-second ads, networks might be able to reduce the length of commercial breaks—especially in sports programming, which is already a source of fan frustration.
Both YouTube and Facebook have been pushing six-second ads. Facebook (FB) has noted that its users watch autoplay ads for 5.7 seconds, and a comScore study found that ads have be five to six seconds in length to have an impact on millennials. So there's reason to believe this will work on TV.
Marketers have already been shifting toward 15-second spots for some time. According to Nielsen, in the first half of 2017, 15-second commercials made up 36% of all spots on TV, up 7% vs. 2014. And 30-second spots are down by 12%. Fox, which is known for its bold programming moves, is making an aggressive push to keep television relevant for advertisers.
This could represent a multi-billion-dollar gamble. For the nimble and agile advertisers, this could present an opportunity. However, brands must weigh the pros and cons. Not only is a six-second commercial slot cheaper, but it's enough time to announce a product and a benefit of purchasing it. It forces brands to really think hard about what matters. Thankfully, though, TV is visual. Copy can be accompanied by dynamic and memorable images. This aligns with the behavior of millennial consumers who are used to communicating via short text or through social media apps like Snapchat (SNAP). Now campaigns have the opportunity to run in a more coordinated fashion across multiple communications channels.
For marketers, six-second ads risk reducing consumer engagement and fraying emotional bonds. And for some marketers, like drug companies that require substantial disclosures with every claim, six-second ads will be a non-starter.
Fox has already shared ideas of how these six-second spots can be placed during dead times within games to shorten commercial breaks. To maintain their profits, the CPM (cost to reach 1,000 viewers) for these six-second ads will be relatively high even though the absolute cost of the TV spot will be much lower. Nevertheless, six-second ads might be attractive to new advertisers who can't afford the absolute costs of a sustained campaign of 30-second spots.
How likely is this going to catch on? Clearly, networks know something has to change. They have to rethink standards and keep advertisers buying during the up fronts. Initially, this might benefit existing brands with strong awareness. Clearly this is a first step. All the other networks will watch this closely to see if it sticks. If it catches on, Fox will be a hero.
Miro Copic is a professor of marketing at San Diego State University and CEO of BottomLine Marketing.


text:
South African Journal of Science
S. Afr. j. sci. vol.108 n.3-4 Pretoria Jan. 2012
A theoretical model for substance abuse in the presence of treatment
Asha Saidi KalulaI; Farai NyabadzaII
IDST/NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa
IIDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa
Correspondence to
The production and use of addictive stimulants has been a major problem in South Africa. Although research has shown increased demand for drug abuse treatment, the actual size of the drug-abusing population remains unknown. Thus the prevalence of drug abuse requires estimation through available tools. Many questions remain unanswered with regard to interventions, new cases of substance abuse and relapse in recovering persons. A six-state compartmental model including a core and non-core group, with fast and slow progression to addiction, was formulated with the aim of qualitatively investigating the dynamics of substance abuse and predicting drug abuse trends. The analysis of the model was presented in terms of the substance abuse epidemic threshold R0. Numerical simulations were performed to fit the model to available data for methamphetamine use in the Western Cape and to determine the role played by some key parameters. The model was also fitted to data on methamphetamine users who enter rehabilitation using the least squares curve fitting method. It was shown that the model exhibits a backward bifurcation where a stable drug-free equilibrium coexists with a stable drug-persistent equilibrium for a certain defined range of values of R0. The stabilities of the model equilibria were ascertained and persistence conditions established. It was found that it is not sufficient to reduce R0 below unit to control the substance abuse epidemic. The reproduction number should be brought below a determined threshold, R0c. The results also suggested that the substance abuse epidemic can be reduced by intervention programmes targeted at light drug users and by increasing the uptake rate into treatment for those addicted. Projected trends showed a steady decline in the prevalence of methamphetamine abuse until 2015.
Substance abuse remains a major global health and social problem.1 The production and abuse of addictive stimulants has increased dramatically in South Africa in the last decade and, in particular, there has been an increase in demand for treatment services for first-time admissions in recent years.2 Not only has this increase impacted on costs to the public health system, but other epidemics, such as HIV, have also increased significantly. For example, in the 2005 antenatal survey, the Western Cape Province of South Africa had the highest increase of new HIV infections, from 13.1% in 2003 to 15.7% in 2005, compared to other provinces.3 Therefore, the development of comprehensive, effective and sustainable strategies for the prevention and management of substance abuse requires a multisectoral approach, which should involve health-care professionals, policymakers, psychiatrists and researchers. The array of possible interventions includes primary prevention (to ensure that substance abuse does not develop), secondary intervention (involving early identification and effective treatment in order to prevent escalation) and tertiary intervention (to reduce substance-related harm). In South Africa, data is collected on admission for treatment for drug abuse every 6 months as a regular monitoring system for drug use trends. Treatment or rehabilitation services for substance abuse problems have not kept pace with the increase in demand for treatment and the treatment programmes do not operate on evidence-based treatment models.4 It is thus important to monitor drug use patterns and predict trends over time.
Many questions remain unanswered as to the prevalence of substance abuse in South Africa, as well as how the implications of drug use, especially those relating to disease burden, health-care demands and risky sexual behaviour can be quantified. Quantifying the implications of substance abuse and monitoring substance abuse is complex and is usually based on incomplete data, because the use and possession of drugs are criminal offences. The collected data is thus shrouded with inconsistencies arising from under-reporting when standard methods of data collection such as household surveys and case findings have been used. There is therefore still a need to understand the problem, measure drug use trends, design appropriate intervention measures and evaluate the success of these interventions.4,5 It is at this stage that mathematical models become useful. Mathematical models can help in designing interventions, evaluating their success and predicting drug use trends.6,7
The similarities between the spread of substance abuse and infectious diseases has been pointed out by a number of researchers.7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15 Substance abuse is obviously not communicated as an organic agent but as a kind of socially acceptable innovative practice by those on drugs to those who are susceptible through interactions. The epidemiological concepts of incidence' prevalence and the reproduction number become valuable in studying substance abuse.13'15 Recent models on drug abuse include the work of Mulone and Straughan8, White and Comiskey13, Burattini et al.14, Nyabadza and Hove-Musekwa15. In these models, the rate of generation of new initiates was dependent on contact between non-drug users and drug users. In this article' unlike in the cited work' the total population was divided into two groups: the core group NC and the non-core group Np. The core group comprises individuals who are at risk of becoming drug users and cause others to become drug users (they can also be referred to as the active group). The non-core group is the non-active subgroup of the population which acts as a source of individuals to the core group. The idea of core and non-core groups has been used in the modelling of sexually transmitted infections (for example see Hadeler and Castillo-Chavez16 and the references cited therein). The categorisation of individuals into core and non-core groups helps in disease control and management strategies.
We extended the compartmental model presented by Nyabadza and Hove-Musekwa15' which provided a structure in which numbers of individuals in each compartment can be tracked in time as relationships between compartments' described in mathematical terms, evolve. Our aim was to qualitatively study the dynamics of a substance abuse epidemic in a scenario where the population is subdivided into a core group NC and a non-core group Np in the presence of treatment. We also aimed to show the usefulness of the model in predicting the prevalence of methamphetamine abuse, which is difficult to determine using ordinary data collection methods. We focused on stimulants such as methamphetamine as the substance of abuse. Unlike in Nyabadza and Hove-Musekwa15' we allowed for slow and fast progression of potential substance users to addiction and a cycle of light and hard drug use. 'Light drug users' refers to individuals who are in their initial phase of drug use' whereas 'hard drug users' represent individuals who would have reached a phase of problematic drug use' usually characterised by addiction. We also included permanent quitters or individuals in remission' to allow for those individuals who permanently stop using drugs' as well as reversion or relapse' which is synonymous to re-infection in the model by Nyabadza and Hove-Musekwa15. Relapse was considered only for those who were under treatment; this consideration was necessitated by the fact that the treatment does not involve isolation and individuals remain in the community during the treatment programme.
The model and its basic properties
Model formulation
We formulated a mathematical model of substance abuse. The adult human population was divided into two groups: the core group NC and the non-core group NP. The core group NC was further subdivided into five different classes: susceptibles S(t), light drug users UL(t), hard drug users UH(t)' drug users in treatment UT(t) and permanent quitters Q(t) at any time t, such that the total population was given by:
We diagrammatically represent the flow of individuals from one class to another in Figure 1.
The movement of individuals into and out of each class can be described based on the model diagram. The spread of substance abuse is therefore modelled like the spread of an infectious disease. Susceptibles increase as a result of recruitment of individuals from the non-core class (NP ) at a rate proportional to the number of individuals in the non-core group so that PNp is the number of individuals recruited. We assumed that the susceptibles can become drug users through contact with active drug users in classes UL and UH. A fraction Ө of new initiates were assumed to become hard drug users and enter the class UH whilst the remainder were assumed to become light drug users. We assumed a mass action contact function so that the force of infection is given by
where b is the transmission parameter and ŋ is the relative initiation ability of hard drug users when compared to light drug users. Thus in each time unit' a susceptible individual has on average contacts that would suffice for initiation into drug use. The assumption was that hard drug users have a lower capability of generating new drug users than light drug users by a factor ŋ such that 0 < ŋ < 1. This assumption is because hard drug users manifest ill effects of substance abuse and some may have been using drugs for a long time and may be older and socially distant from potential recruits' who are usually youths. The population of light drug users is increased by a proportion (1 - 9) of those who are recruited into drug use and also when hard users revert to light drug use at a rate The population is decreased when light drug users become hard drug users at a rate a and when they quit using drugs at a rate P2. The population of hard drug users is generated by a proportion
θ of susceptibles upon recruitment into drug use, when light drug users become hard drug users at a rate s and when drug users in treatment revert to hard drug use at a rate r. The population of hard drug users is decreased by removals that are related to hard drug use at a rate d1 and when hard drug users enter treatment at a rate g. The removal rate d1 models deaths and removals of individuals (e.g. as a result of imprisonment) that are drug related. Drug users in treatment are generated by hard drug users who start treatment at a rate g. This population is decreased by removals at a rate d2, when those in treatment become hard drug users at a rate r and when they permanently quit using drugs at a rate P1. The population of permanent quitters is increased when light drug users permanently quit using drugs at a rate P2, as well as when drug users in treatment quit using drugs permanently at a rate P1. We assumed that individuals in each class die naturally at a rate μ. The definition of each parameter is given in Table 1.
Based on the model assumptions, the model diagram and Table 1, we have the following system of differential equations:
with initial conditions
S(0) ≥ 0, Ul(0) ≥ 0, Uh(0) ≥ 0, Ut(0) ≥ 0, Q(0) ≥ 0.
Invariant region
Because the model monitors changes in the human population, the variables and the parameters are assumed to be positive for all t ≥ 0. [System 1] will therefore be analysed in a suitable feasible region G of biological interest. The following lemma applies to the region that [System 1] is restricted to:
The feasible region G defined by
with initial conditions S(0) ≥ 0, Ul(0) ≥ 0, UH(0) ≥ 0, Ut(0) ≥ 0, Q(0) ≥ 0, is positively invariant and attracting with respect to [System 1] for all t > 0.
Proof: Adding the equations of [System 1] we obtain
The solution NC(t) of the differential equation, [Eqn 5], has the following property where
Nc(0) represents the sum of the initial values of the variables. As
This means that is the upper bound of NC. On the other hand, if then NC(t) will decrease as . This means that if then the solution (S(t), UL(t), UH(t), UT(t), Q(t)) enters G or approaches it asymptotically. Hence, G is positively invariant under the flow induced by [System 1]. Thus in G, [System 1] is well-posed mathematically. Hence, it is sufficient to study the dynamics of the model in G.
Positivity of solutions
For [System 1], it is important to prove that all the state variables remain non-negative so that the solutions of [System 1] with positive initial conditions will remain positive for all t > 0. We thus give Lemma 2.
Given that the initial conditions of [System 1] are:
S(0) > 0, UL(0) > 0, Uh(0) > 0, Ut(0) > 0, 8(0) > 0, the solutions
S(t), Uiit), Uh(í), UT(t) and Q(t) are non-negative for all t > 0.
Proof: Assume that and it follows from the first equation of [System 1] that . We thus have
From the second equation of [System 1], we have
Similarly, it can be shown that
Uh(I) > 0, U(t) > 0 and Q(t) > 0 for all t > 0.
Model equilibria and stability analysis
Local stability of the drug-free equilibrium
[System 1] has a drug-free equilibrium given by:
Following van den Driessche and Watmough17, the linear stability of E0 can be established using the next generation matrix method in [System 1]. Using the notations in van den Driessche and Watmough17 for our system, the matrices for the new infection terms (F) and transition terms (V) are, respectively, given by:
where . It follows then that the basic reproduction number i?0 is given by the spectral
rarlinc nf /77/-1 wrlieirp T/-1 rlpnntpc fino inirprcp nf J/
We thus have
where . R0 in this case represents the average number of secondary cases that one drug user can generate during his or her duration of drug use in a population of potential drug users. The expression of R0 is the sum of two terms representing the contribution of light drug users and hard drug users. Hence, using Theorem 2 of van den Driessche and Watmough17, we establish Theorem 1.
Theorem 1
The drug-free equilibrium point, E0 , is locally asymptotically stable if R0 < 1 , and unstable if R0 < 1 .
We now illustrate the above theorem numerically. We performed numerical simulations using a fourth-order Runge-Kutta scheme in Matlab.18 The aim was to verify the analytical results obtained on the stability of [System 1]. We first established the parameter values to be used in the simulations. For the purpose of these simulations, we considered hypothetical populations of one million individuals for the core group and four million individuals for the non-core group. We arbitrarily set the initial conditions for the system for illustrative purposes.
We considered the case when R0 < 1 , in particular when R0 = 0.6541. For varying initial conditions when R0 = 0.6541, the dynamics of drug users is represented by Figure 2. These results show that the population of drug users declines to zero, that is, it approaches the drug-free equilibrium. The results also show that the drug-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable whenever R0 < 1 . These results support Theorem 1 on the stability of a drug-free equilibrium.
Drug-persistent equilibrium
In order to determine the drug-persistent equilibrium of [System 1], we set the equations equal to zero. Let E1 = (S, UL , UH , UT , Q) represent the drug-persistent equilibrium and let
be the force of infection at steady state E1. In terms of X*, the components of E1 are
By substituting [Eqn 8] into
[Eqn 7], and simplifying, it can be shown, after some tedious algebraic manipulations, that the non-zero equilibria of the model satisfy the following quadratic equation in terms of *:
Thus, the positive drug-persistent equilibria of [System 1] are obtained by solving for l* from the quadratic equation, [Eqn 9], and substituting the results into the expressions in [Eqn 8]. Clearly, the coefficient a0 of [Eqn 9] is always negative and
We thus produce Theorem 2 on the existence of the drug-persistent equilibrium.
[System 1] has four cases:
1. a unique drug-persistent equilibrium if R0 > 1
2. a unique drug-persistent equilibrium if b0 > 0 and
3. two drug-persistent equilibria if b0 > 0 and R0 < 1
4. no drug-persistent equilibrium otherwise.
It is clear from Theorem 2 Case 1 that the model has a unique drug-persistent equilibrium whenever R0 > 1. Further, Case 3 suggests the possibility of a backward bifurcation. To check for this, we set the discriminant zero and the result solved for the critical value of R0 , giving
where R0c is a critical value of R0 , below which no drug-persistent equilibrium exists. (For an effective drug abuse control, the reproduction number should be brought below R0C. The condition R0 < 1 is not sufficient for a complete reversal of the substance abuse epidemic described by [System 1].)
Backward bifurcation
The phenomenon of backward bifurcation has been observed in many epidemiological models such as models for tuberculosis with exogenous re-infection,19,20,21 vector disease models,22 susceptible-infected-susceptible models with saturation of recoveries,23,24 and in particular, models for drug abuse.13,15 The phenomenon has epidemiological significance whereby the classical requirement of
R0 < 1 is, although necessary, no longer sufficient to end the substance abuse epidemic. Theorem 2 can be illustrated in the bifurcation diagram shown as Figure 3. Figure 3 is reminiscent of a standard backward bifurcation diagram (see for instance Dushoff25). We emphasise here that the parameter values chosen are for illustrative purposes only and may not necessarily reflect a real substance abuse phenomenon.
The simulation results depicted in Figure 3 show that [System 1] only has the drug-free equilibrium when R0 < R0c < 1 , two drug-persistent equilibria when R0 < R0c < 1 and one drug-persistent equilibrium when R0 > 1 , as shown by Regions A, B and C, respectively. In Region A, the drug-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, whilst in Region B one of the drug-persistent equilibria is stable and the other is unstable. This result clearly shows the coexistence of two stable equilibria when R0 < R0c < 1 , confirming that [System 1] exhibits backward bifurcation. In Region C, the drug-persistent equilibrium is stable. The results shown in Figure 3 are summarised in Table 2.
The simulations were in agreement with Theorem 2. The time series plots shown in Figure 4, for different initial conditions, also reflect the existence of multiple steady states.
The parameter values are as given for Figure 3 with b values being within each of Regions A' B and C. It can be seen that, irrespective of the initial conditions' the force of infection stabilises to a drug-free equilibrium in Region A' one drug-persistent equilibrium and one drug-free equilibrium in Region B and to a drug-persistent equilibrium in Region C. Lemma 3 is thus established.
[System 1] undergoes backward bifurcation when Case 3 of Theorem 2 holds and R0C < R0 < 1.
The role of relapse
One of the major problems relating to treatment for substance abuse is the relapse of those under treatment into hard drug use. We considered the situation in which there is no relapse to hard drug use for the sake of comparison with the case in which relapse occurs. In this situation we considered the case of r = 0, such that [System 1] reduces to
[System 2] has the same drug-free equilibrium point as [System 1]. The drug-persistent equilibrium can be obtained by considering quadratic equation, [Eqn 9], when r = 0. The coefficients a0, b0 and c0 in [Eqn 9] reduce to:
In this case, the force of infection at the steady state is X = x[R0 - 1], which is positive when R0 > 1. Then one can show that the drug-persistent equilibrium
exists and is unique. S*, UL*, UH*, UT * and Q* are given by:
Hence, in this case (with r = 0), no drug-persistent equilibrium exists whenever R0 < 1. It follows that, owing to the absence of multiple drug-persistent equilibria for [System 1] with r = 0 and R0 < 1, a backward bifurcation is unlikely for [System 1] with r = 0 and R0 < 1. Figure 5 shows the contribution of the relapse rate r on the prevalence of drug use. In the presence of relapse, the prevalence of drug use is higher. It is important to note that when r = 0, the ability of drug users not in treatment to recruit initiates from the susceptible population is the same as the ability to recruit from individuals in treatment.
Global stability of the drug-free equilibrium
The absence of multiple drug-persistent equilibria when r = 0, suggests that the drug-free equilibrium of [System 1] is globally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1. We thus produce Theorem 3.
Consider [System 2] with r = 0. The drug-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable in G whenever R0 < 1.
Proof: Let us consider the following Lyapunov candidate function:
where a1 and a2 are positive constants to be determined. Its time derivative along the trajectories of [System 2] satisfies
The constants a1 and a2 are chosen such that the coefficient of UH is equal to zero. Thus, one can easily show that
Because after substituting a1 and a2 in [Eqn 11], we obtain .
Furthermore V(t) = 0 when R0 = 1, that is, when UL = UH = UT = Q = 0. By LaSalle's invariance principle, the largest invariant set in G, contained in is reduced to the drug-free equilibrium. This pro ves the global asymptotic stability of E0 in G (see Bhatia and Szegõ26, Theorem 3.7.11, page 346).
Local stability of the drug-persistent equilibrium
We determined the stability of the drug-persistent equilibrium and further investigated the possibility of backward bifurcation as a result of the existence of multiple equilibria as indicated in Theorem 2 Case 3. The stability analysis of the drug-persistent equilibrium point required us to determine the eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix evaluated at the drug-persistent equilibrium. As expressing drug-persistent equilibria explicitly is complicated for [System 1], the calculation of eigenvalues is mathematically cumbersome. So we used the centre manifold theory as presented by Castillo-Chavez and Song20. To apply this method, we first changed the variables of [System 1] such that with
[System 1] then becomes
We choose 4> = P as the bifurcation parameter. We thus equate R0 = 1 and obtain
The Jacobian of [System 3] at drug-free equilibrium £0 when , is given by
We note that the Jacobian J of the linearised system has a simple zero eigenvalue. We can thus use the centre manifold theory to analyse the dynamics of [System 3]. The right eigenvector associated with zero eigenvalue is given by w = w2, w3, w4, w5)T, where
and (.)T denotes a vector transpose. Further, J(*) has a corresponding left eigenvector v = (v1, v2, v3, v4, v5)t, where
We note that all the eigenvectors are positive except for w1 and the value of a is chosen such that v. w = 1 . In order to establish the local stability of E1, we used Theorem 4 proveninCas tillo-Chavez and Song20 and adopted the use of a and b as in Castillo-Chavez and Song20. In particular, because v1 = v4 = v5 = 0,
To compute the value of a and b, we first computed the nonzero second-order partial derivatives of [System 3] at drug-free equilibrium such that,
Hence the sign of a depends on the value of r and X, such that if Γ > X then a > 0 and if Γ < X then a < 0 whilst b > 0.
We thus obtain Theorem 4.
If Γ > X, then [System 1] has a backward bifurcation at R0 = 1 . Alternatively, if Γ < X, then [System 1] undergoes forward bifurcation and the drug-persistent equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable for R0 > 1 but close to one.
Further, using the same initial conditions when R0 = 1.7443, the population of drug users tends to a drug-persistent equilibrium in Figure 6. This pattern indicates that, irrespective of the initial conditions, the population of drug users eventually settles at the drug-persistent equilibrium with increasing time. This result is in agreement with Theorem 4.
The role of key parameters
It is also important to investigate how some key parameters jointly influence the epidemic. This investigation was performed using contour plots. In Figure 7, contours of R0 are plotted as a function of transition rates s and p2 in Figure 7a, p2 and y in Figure 7b, g and p2 in Figure 7c and g and y in Figure 7d.
Based on the parameter values used in the simulation, Figure 7 shows that increasing s, p2 and g reduces the model reproduction number, whilst increasing y increases R0. This pattern indicates that R0 is a decreasing function of s, p2 and g, and is an increasing function of y. These results can also be obtained by performing a sensitivity analysis on R0. According to the model, to decrease the reproduction number, it is thus necessary to increase the rate at which individuals become hard drug users, the rate at which they permanently quit and the rate at which they are rehabilitated. This result makes sense as increasing forward progression rates eventually leads to more individuals quitting. The significance of increasing s to fight the epidemic is an outcome of the model formulation for two reasons. Firstly, hard drug users have been assumed to be less effective recruiters and secondly, the class of hard drug users is the entry point into treatment programmes. It is thus advantageous according to the model, for identification purposes, that an individual remains a light drug user for only a short time. In reality, this result remains debatable.
Application of the model
We applied the model to data on methamphetamine abuse in the Western Cape. [System 1] was fitted to the data for individuals who attended specialist treatment centres in the Western Cape. This data is collected every 6 months by the South Africa Community Epidemiology Network on Drug Use2 for individuals who attend specialist treatment centres in the Western Cape. The data on treatment demand trends was used to model the growth of individuals in the UT class in our model. The data for the growth of methamphetamine users in the Western Cape is given in Table 3. Table 3 includes all individuals who use methamphetamine as their primary and secondary substance of abuse.
As the data is collected at 6 monthly intervals, the letter 'a' represents the first 6 months of the year (January to June) and 'b' represents the second 6 months (July to December). Because of the unavailability of data on transmission and progression rates, we estimated most of the parameters' which makes the setting of initial conditions difficult. Nevertheless, for the purpose of the simulations and illustrating the usefulness of the model' we assumed an initial population of one million for the population of individuals who are prone to become methamphetamine abusers. We set the natural death rate of 0.025.15
Many parameters are known to lie within limits. Only a few parameters are known exactly and it is thus important to estimate the others. The estimation process attempts to find the best accordance between the computed and observed data. The estimation can be carried out by 'trial and error' or by the use of software programs that are designed to find parameters that give the best fit. Here, the fitting process involved the use of the least squares curve fitting method. A Matlab18 code was used where unknown parameter values were given a lower and upper bound from which the set of parameter values that produced the best fit were obtained. The parameter values obtained from the fitting are shown in Table 4.
Figure 8 is a graphical representation of the model fitted to the data for individuals seeking treatment for methamphetamine abuse. As can be seen in Figure 8, the model fits well with the data.
For planning and management of interventions, it is important to project the prevalence of the methamphetamine epidemic over a number of years. In our case, we chose 5 years. The projected prevalence over 5 years to 2015 is shown in Figure 9. The model projection shows that there will be a gradual decrease in prevalence. For the given parameter values, the prevalence declines from a peak value of approximately 2.3x105 to 1.9x105 over a period of 5 years. This estimation, of course, assumes that the dynamics remain the same over the entire period.
We modified the compartmental deterministic model of Nyabadza and Hove-Musekwa15 to incorporate slow and fast progression of initiates and a cycle of light and hard drug use. We also included individuals who permanently stop using drugs and relapse for those under treatment. Relapse was considered synonymous to re-infection in epidemiological models. Our model was used to gain some insights into the dynamics of substance abuse. We established the local and global stability of the drug-free equilibrium. We noted that the drug-free equilibrium point is locally stable whenever R0 < 1. Also, the model has a unique drug-persistent equilibrium whenever R0 > 1, which shows persistence of substance use in the community. For some specific conditions established in Theorem 2, the model exhibits backward bifurcation and some bifurcation diagrams are presented in Figures 3 and 4.
The numerical results suggest that the spread of substance abuse can be controlled through a reduction in the relapse rate y, increasing interventions at the light drug users' phase and increasing the uptake rates into treatment. The existence of backward bifurcation in our model is indicative of complex dynamics. It is not sufficient to reduce R0 below unit to control the substance abuse epidemic but rather the value of R0 should be reduced to below R0c. It was shown that backward bifurcation is caused by relapsing to hard drug use when individuals in treatment are lured back into substance abuse by light drug users. The process remains a subject of debate as individuals in treatment are more likely to revert to drug use without due influence. The model thus suggests that strengthening of treatment programmes to prevent relapse is vital.
As with many models, the model presented in this article should be treated with circumspection because of the assumptions made and the difficulty in the estimation of the model parameters. As part of future work to improve the model in this article, the model considered here can be refined to incorporate drug users who start using drugs on their own without having contact with other drug users; the impact of behavioural changes induced by campaigns; age structure; and recruitment by drug lords. The model can also be refined for a specific substance of abuse and be fitted to data. Despite its shortcomings, the model provides useful insights into the possible impact of treatment and relapse in communities struggling with substance abuse.
A.S.K. appreciates the support of SACEMA in the production of the manuscript. F.N. acknowledges with gratitude the Department of Mathematical Sciences for its support in the production of this manuscript.
We declare that we have no financial or personal relationships which may have inappropriately influenced us in writing this article.
A.S.K. was the main author of the manuscript, which is part of an MSc thesis. A.S.K. designed the model, performed the analysis and wrote the manuscript. F.N. supervised the research, and helped with the simulations and revisions.
1. Lineberry TW, Bostwick JM. Methamphetamine abuse: A perfect storm of complications. Mayo Clin Proc. 2006;81:77-84. http://dx.doi.org/10.4065/81.1.77, PMid:16438482 [ Links ]
2. Plüddemann A, Dada S, Parry C, et al. Monitoring alcohol and substance abuse trends in South Africa. SACENDU Research brief. 2010;13(2):1-16. [ Links ]
3. Parry CDH, Dewing S, Petersen P, et al. Rapid assessment of HIV risk behavior in drug using sex workers in three cities in South Africa. AIDS Behav. 2009;13(5):849-859. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10461-008-9367-3, PMid:18324470 [ Links ]
4. Wechsberg WM, Luseno WK, Karg RS, et al. Alcohol, cannibis, and methamphetamine use and other risk behaviours among Black and Coloured South African women: A small randomized trial in the Western Cape. Int J Drug Policy. 2008;19:130-139. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2007.11.018, PMid:18207723, PMCid:2435299 [ Links ]
5. Parry CDH. Substance abuse intervention in South Africa. World Psychiatry. 2005;4:34-35. PMid:16633501, PMCid:1414718 [ Links ]
6. Rossi C. Operational models for the epidemics of problematic drug use: The Mover-Stayer approach to heterogeneity. Socio Econ Plan Sci. 2004;38:73-90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0038-0121(03)00029-6 [ Links ]
7. Rossi C. The role of dynamic modelling in drug abuse epidemiology. Bull Narc. 2002;LIV:33-44. [ Links ]
8. Mulone G, Straughan B. A note on heroin epidemics. Math Biosci. 2009;218:138-141. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2009.01.006, PMid:19563739 [ Links ]
9. De Alarcon R. The spread of a heroin abuse in a community. Bull Narc. 1969;21:17-22. [ Links ]
10. Hunt LG, Chambers CD. The heroin epidemics. New York: Spectrum Publications Inc.; 1976. [ Links ]
11. Mackintosh DR, Stewart GT. A mathematical model of a heroin epidemic: Implications for control policies. J Epidemiol Community Health. 1979;33:299-304. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/jech.33.4.299 [ Links ]
12. Sharomi O, Gumel AB. Curtailing smoking dynamics: A mathematical modelling approach. Appl Math Comput. 2008;195:475-499. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2007.05.012 [ Links ]
13. White E, Comiskey C. Heroin epidemics, treatment and ODE modelling. Math Biosci. 2007;208:312-324. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2006.10.008, PMid:17174346 [ Links ]
14. Burattini MN, Massad E, Coutinho FAB. A mathematical model of the impact of crack-cocaine use on the prevalence of HIV/AIDS among drug users. Math Comput Model. 1998;28:21-29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0895-7177(98)00095-8 [ Links ]
15. Nyabadza F, Hove-Musekwa SD. From heroin epidemics to methamphetamine epidemics: Modelling substance abuse in a South African province. Math Biosci. 2010;225:132-140. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2010.03.002, PMid:20298703 [ Links ]
16. Hadeler KP, Castillo-Chavez C. Core group model for disease transmission. Math Biosci. 1995;128:41-55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0025-5564(94)00066-9 [ Links ]
17. Van den Driessche P, Watmough J. Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission. Math Biosci. 2002;180:29-48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6 [ Links ]
18. Matlab. Version 7.01. Natick, MA: Mathworks; 2004. [ Links ]
19. Bhunu CP, Garira W, Mukandavire Z, Magombedze G. Modelling the effects of pre-exposure and post-exposure vaccines in tuberculosis control. J Theor Biol. 2008;254:633-649. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.06.023, PMid:18644386 [ Links ]
20. Castillo-Chavez C, Song B. Dynamical models of tuberculosis and their applications. Math Biosci Eng. 2004;1:361-404. [ Links ]
21. Feng Z, Castillo-Chavez C, Capurroe A. A model for tuberculosis with exogenous re-infection. Theor Popul Biol. 2000;57:235-247. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/tpbi.2000.1451, PMid:10828216 [ Links ]
22. Garba S, Gumel A, Bakar M. Backward bifurcation in dengue transmission dynamics. Math Biosci. 2008;215:11-25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2008.05.002, PMid:18573507 [ Links ]
23. Cui J, Mu X, Wan H. Saturation recovery leads to multiple endemic equilibria and backward bifurcation. J Theor Biol. 2008;254:275-283. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.05.015, PMid:18586277 [ Links ]
24. Sharomi O, Poddler CN, Gumel AB, et al. Role of incidence function in vaccine-induced backward bifurcation in some HIV models. Math Biosci. 2007;210:436-463. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2007.05.012, PMid:17707441 [ Links ]
25. Dushoff J. Incorporating immunological ideas in epidemiological models. J Theor Biol. 1996;180:181-187. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/jtbi.1996.0094, PMid:8759527 [ Links ]
26. Bhatia NP, Szegö GP. Stability theory of dynamical systems. Berlin: Springer-Verlag; 1970. [ Links ]
Farai Nyabadza
Postal address:Private Bag X1, Matieland, South Africa
Email: nyabadzaf@sun.ac.za
Received: 04 Mar. 2011
Accepted: 08 Nov. 2011
Published: 16 Mar. 2012
Academy of Science of South Africa
1st Floor Block A, The Woods, 41 De Havilland Crescent,
Persequor Park, Meiring Naude Road, Lynnwood,
PO Box 72135, Lynnwood Ridge, Pretoria, Gauteng, ZA, 0040,
sajs@assaf.org.za