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Q: AngularJS ng-if directive briefly renders even when condition is false before removing element In the below template, I would expect the script tag to never render, and the alert script to never execute. However it does.

    Should not appear

This is causing us huge performance problems on mobile devices as we wrap large DOM and directive structures in ng-ifs with the expectation they will not render when the condition is false.
I have also tested ng-switch which behaves in the same manner.
Is this expected behaviour? Is there a way to avoid the unnecessary render?
JSFiddle

A: It may seem backward, but ngIf deals more with the removal of DOM, rather than the addition. Before the controller finishes instantiating, the DOM still exists. This is generally a good thing, and allows you to have graceful degradation for users without JS (or, alternatively, an initial loading state).
If you don't want the inner DOM to render, place it in a directive (either its own directive, or via ng-include) or in a view.
Example 1 (understanding why the script runs):
To help yourself understand the flow a bit better, you can update the example to instead be:

    {{"Should not appear"}}

https://jsfiddle.net/hLw0nady/6/embedded/result/
You will notice that when the alert pops up, Angular has not yet interpolated "Should not appear" (it appears in its braces). After you dismiss the alert, however, it disappears.
Example 2 (how to prevent the alert):
An example of hiding the code that "should not run" in a directive can be viewed here: https://jsfiddle.net/hLw0nady/4/
In this example, only if you replace ng-if="false" with ng-if="true" will you get your alert.

A: I think that false expression is not well converted to angular false.
I can prove this by setting:

Which doesn't render text in current div.
Anyway, it executes alert, i suppose it is executed before angular runs, that's why.


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You are here: Home | News
Press Release: Interfaith Food Justice Network Call for Co-operation to End Food Poverty
At Glasgow Central Gurdwara on Thursday 17th of November at 6pm, the Interfaith Food Justice Network will launch their "Food Justice Declaration".
This event will bring people involved in tackling food poverty in Glasgow and across Scotland together with faith leaders and city and national politicians. Angela Constance MSP, Cabinet Secretary for Communities, Social Security and Equalities will be speaking at the event. Also speaking will be Rev Martin Johnstone, Chair of the Independent Short Life Working Group on Food Poverty. Participants will spend time connecting with one another, so they can put their commitment to working together for food justice into action.
"Though from different traditions, we share beliefs that move us to action when people in our communities go hungry"
(Food Justice Declaration)
The Interfaith Food Justice Network is a movement of over thirty local groups and organisations in and around Glasgow working at the forefront of tackling food poverty. Coming from diverse backgrounds, they seek to support each other's work in their shared goal of food justice for all. Those involved include Christians, Muslims, Sikhs, Buddhists, Humanists and many non-religious people — and all involved in this important work are welcome. The Network invites organisations and individuals to sign the Food Justice Declaration (bit.do/foodjustice) and commit to joining us in working toward food security for all people in Scotland.
Groups in the network provide food banks, soup kitchens, community cafes and meals, community gardens, and campaign for a fairer, more just food system.
The Interfaith Food Justice Network is an informal network curated by Faith in Community Scotland's Transformation Team and Interfaith Glasgow, with support from the Centre for Human Ecology
Glasgow Central Gurdwara is located at 138 Berkeley Street, Glasgow, G3 7HY
Shakeel Ali (shakeel@transformationteam.org / 0141 221 4576)
Magdalen Lambkin (magdalen.lambkin@interfaithglasgow.org / 0141 5580778 / Twitter: @interfaithglasg)
In light of the recent EU referendum result, as well as the debates leading up to it which have included some xenophobic and unfair comments, the staff and Board of Interfaith Glasgow would like to stand in solidarity with the people of many faith and belief traditions in Glasgow.
Interfaith Glasgow is a multi-faith organisation that holds dear the notion that as a society we are stronger, more creative and more effective when we celebrate diversity and promote dialogue.
We would like all our friends to know that Interfaith Glasgow will continue to work alongside the many faith communities in our city, and strive to promote diversity, social justice and harmony in Glasgow and beyond. We value our interfaith friendships and regard this work as our privilege.
The Interfaith Glasgow Team
Weekend Club Greet, Meet, Eat, Saturday 20th Feb
Join us for our regular monthly weekend club meeting for asylum seekers and refugees. Learn the history and techniques of making Scottish shortbread and join us for a vegetarian meal. Venue: 525 Shields Road, G41 2RF. Time: 2:30 – 17:00 pm. To register, text Mohamed on 07511 044814, or email weekendclub@interfaithglasgow.org
Weekend Club Burns Night Celebration
Weekend Club for asylum seekers, refugees and new migrants. Join us on Saturday 23rd January 2 pm – 6 pm for a celebration of the poet Robert Burns, with poetry, great Ceilidh music and vegetarian haggis! Travel expenses paid. If you would like to join us please email Mohamed at weekendclub@interfaithglasgow.org or text on 07511044814
Venue: 525 Shields Road, Glasgow G41 2RF
Invitation to Gurdwara Community Meal
An invitation for our next Interfaith community meal at Glasgow Gurdwara on Tuesday 2nd February, 1-3pm. If you would like to attend please email projects@interfaithglasgow.org
Scriptural Reasoning Meeting 13th January – theme 'Refugees'
Festival exchange Event 7 January 2016
Our next 'Festivals Exchange' event will take place on Thursday 7 January, 7-9pm and will offer the opportunity to witness a Muslim festival first hand. This festival will celebrate the Mawlid of the Prophet Muhammad at Zia-ul-Quran Mosque.
You are warmly invited by the Muslim community at Zia-ul Quran to witness an evening of religious songs, stories from the life of the Prophet Muhammad, and refreshments. People of all faiths and none are welcome and you will be met by members of the community upon arrival. Registration is essential. If you would like to attend, please register by emailing Kemal: projects@interfaithglasgow.org
This event is part of our 'Festivals Exchange Programme' which celebrates the rich religious and cultural diversity of the South East of Glasgow and fosters friendship-building and improved interfaith understanding by providing opportunities for people from different faith and belief backgrounds to gain a better understanding—and first-hand experience—of each other's religious festivals. (The previous two festivals were celebrated at Glasgow Gurdwara and Gorbals Parish Church, respectively.)
Interfaith Summit with First Minister
On Tuesday, the First Minister held an historic Interfaith Summit. Interfaith Glasgow's Project Manager, Rose, represented Interfaith Glasgow and spoke on the question of whether faith communities can work together beyond dialogue. She emphasised the huge potential that exists for collaborative working and told those present what people from different faith and belief backgrounds are doing to tackle food poverty and help refugees and asylum seekers in Glasgow. Read what the First Minister said abut the summit here:https://firstminister.gov.scot/first-minister-welcomes-fai…/
For photos of the summit see our Facebook album here.
Have a read what Rose said at the meeting below: read more →
Glasgow Doors Open Day 2015
Glasgow Doors Open Day
Glasgow's Built Heritage Festival
14th – 20th September
Lots of Glasgow's religious buildings are opening their doors to the public as part of this week long festival – including Glasgow Gurdwara, Glasgow Central Mosque and Garnethill Synagogue as well as many churches. Why not take advantage of this unique opportunity to see inside these beautiful places of worship – many have guided tours on offer too.
Here is a list of the religious buildings open to the public along with links to the more detailed information for each from the Glasgow Doors Open Day website.
Please check details – advanced booking is required for some.
Upcoming networking event – come along!
Interfaith Glasgow warmly invites you to join us for our annual networking event …
'Flourishing Together: an Evening of Interfaith Networking'
5:45-8:30pm (buffet supper included)
St Mungo Museum of Religious Life and Art (Function Room), 2 Castle Street, Glasgow G4 0RH
Your chance to …
• meet people from different religious communities and organisations in Glasgow
• get an update on current interfaith work in Glasgow & how you can get involved
• brainstorm about possibilities for friendship-building, dialogue, and cooperation
• have your say in the future of interfaith education
• get planning for Scottish Interfaith Week 2015
• make new friends over a free buffet dinner
All welcome! Please feel free to circulate this invitation to anyone who may be interested.
Registration from 5.45pm. Vegetarian buffet will be served at 6pm.
Booking essential. Please book via Eventbrite by 17th August, using this link:
http://bit.ly/1I0ycCv
If you find yourself unable to register through Eventbrite or require more information, please contact Magdalen:
magdalen.lambkin@interfaithglasgow.org
Interfaith Glasgow supports Mela on your Doorstep
To celebrate Glasgow Mela's 25th birthday, Interfaith Glasgow were at the Tramway at "Mela on your Doorstep" last month.
Check out the pictures below to see some of the reasons why people from diverse backgrounds love Glasgow!
Upcoming Food Justice Events – 30th April, 2015
Food Poverty in Glasgow is rising
People from diverse faith and belief backgrounds are already doing great work helping provide food for those who need it.
Rolling chapattis at Glasgow Gurdwara to be served at Cadogan Street Soup Kitchen, Glasgow City Centre.
Let's make even more of a difference by working together!
Together with The Transformation Team, we are organising an evening on Thursday 30th April for people involved in food poverty initiatives and for those who want to get involved. Details below.
Anti-Islamic Graffiti on Glasgow Central Gurdwara
See the full BBC article here: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-32284473
This kind of malicious and ignorant vandalism stands in stark contrast to the attitude of the vast majority of people in Glasgow who appreciate our city's rich diversity and make every effort to live in peace with each other.
Our sympathies go to the Sikh community whose place of worship has fallen prey to this senseless act of vandalism; to the Muslim community, who were its intended target; to the Jewish community, for whom the image of the swastika conjures such horror; and to the Hindu, Jain, and Buddhist communities who have long endured the abuse of one of their ancient sacred symbols.
As people of all faiths and none, let us stand shoulder-to-shoulder in challenging ignorance and hatred in all its forms!
WANTED: Freelance Project Officer
For 'Weekend Club' initiative (Interfaith Glasgow)
We are seeking to contract the services of a Project Officer to deliver our new 'Weekend Club' initiative, which is an interfaith response to the plight of refugees, asylum seekers, and new migrants in Glasgow. The initiative will, in particular, tackle the isolation and loneliness resulting from the limited provision of services at the weekend. The post will involve recruiting, establishing, and supporting an interfaith group of volunteers to put on a series of activities which increase social interaction and decrease the isolation felt by refugees, asylum seekers, and new migrants living in Glasgow.
You will be self-employed with flexible working hours and will be contracted for a maximum of 666 hours of work at £12 per hour over an approximately 17 month period.
The deadline for applications is 20th April 2015.
For a full job description and details of how to apply please click here: Weekend Club Project Officer – Job Advert
Food Justice for Glasgow: An Interfaith Response
Monday 23rd March
The Pearce Institute
840-860 Govan Road, Glasgow G51 3UU
Are you or your community involved in the effort to tackle food poverty in our city?
Do you think more could be achieved by working together?
Would you like more volunteers for your project?
Then Interfaith Glasgow together with The Transformation Team invite you to come along to the above event for an opportunity to:
connect up with similar projects the city
brainstorm about practical ways of co-operation
learn about how you can increase your pool of volunteers
*A free, locally sourced buffet dinner will be served at 6pm*
Booking essential. To book your place please sign up via Eventbrite by clicking here or for more information please contact Magdalen at magdalen.lambkin@interfaithglasgow.org or phone Interfaith Glasgow on 0141 4206982

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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EU: Verkhovna Rada to Change the Law on National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine
The European Union called for the Verkhovna Rada to bring the law on the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine in compliance with the Constitution since the independence of this body was a condition for a visa-free regime with the EU and macro-financial aid. The EU foreign policy spokesman Peter Stano stated this.
"We have taken into account the Constitutional Court decision regarding NABU. The consequences of these decisions should be evaluated. The EU calls for the Ukrainian Parliament to amend the relevant legislation and bring it into line with the Constitution as soon as possible. We would emphasise the importance of NABU's clear legal status and, at the same time, ensure its independence and efficient work," Stano said.
Earlier, the European Parliament announced a threat to the visa-free regime with the EU due to the non-transparent procedure of selecting the Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office head.
Meanwhile, the head of the parliamentary faction "Servant of the People" David Arahamiya stressed that Western partners were worried about who would head the Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office and not about who will elect the head. "So, let's wait for who will be chosen by this commission together with the international experts. Such experts entered this commission in sufficient quantity. Then, we will decide together with you whether it was 'betrayal' or 'victory,' the MP noted. He added that the only requirement of Ukraine's international partners, enshrined in the documents, is to preserve the independence of the anti-corruption infrastructure.
To recap, the EU delegation and the US Embassy in Ukraine issued a joint statement the other day stating that further support for Ukraine would depend on the transparency of the election of the Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office head.
EU-Ukraine Ukraine politics
Lublin Triangle to Fight Against Russia's Hybrid Threats
Ukraine's Presidential Office: Operation "with Wagnerians" is a Propagandist Fabrication


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The Toil and Trouble with Trump's Idea of a "Witch Hunt"
10/9/2019 by Jonathan Chang
Rudy Giuliani confirmed suspicions this week that he is a baby-snatching, potion-brewing, broomstick-riding witch. Well, not exactly—but he did compare the ongoing impeachment inquiry against Donald Trump to the Salem witch trials in a tweet yesterday.
Even Salem witch trials didn't use anonymous testimony. The accused had to be confronted by a witness willing to put their name and reputation behind the charges and then had to be available for cross examination.
— Rudy Giuliani (@RudyGiuliani) October 8, 2019
The "anonymous testimony" Giuliani referred to is actually news that House Democrats might permit the Ukraine whistleblower to testify from a remote location via a video hookup—and much like the Salem jurors themselves, Giuliani is jumping to conclusions. The National Post reports that Democrats overseeing the logistics of the testimony have also considered a staff-only session that would prevent lawmakers from attending and asking questions. Nothing is concrete, but that hasn't stopped Republicans from becoming hysterical.
But what's even more interesting about Giuliani's attempt at a historical comparison here is his assumption that Salem trials were "sound."
https://www.instagram.com/p/BPjBJdRlTEW/
Twisted examples of permissible "evidence" in these trials included examining women's bodies for "witch's marks" and torturing the accused. In 1689, 80-year-old Giles Corey was pressed for pleading not guilty; over two days, the jury placed increasingly heavier stones upon his body to cajole a confession. Before the court of Oyer and Terminer was dissolved, spectral evidence—witness testimony that a person's spirit or specter appeared to a witness in a dream and afflicted them—could also be used as evidence.
Margaret Scott, for example, was executed in 1692 due to spectral testimony of Mary Daniels. In a September 15, 1692 document, Daniels swore:
I was taken very ill again all over & felt a great pricking in ye soles of my feet, and after a while I saw apparently the shape of Margret Scott, who, as I was sitting in a chair by ye fire pulled me with ye chair, down backward to ye ground, and tormented and pinched me very much…
The deposition of Mary Daniel against Margaret Scott, auctioned by Christie's, June 2017.
Of course, the irony that Giuliani, a man who has openly vilified women, is equating himself with the majority women tried and executed during the Salem witch trials is an astonishing work of gaslighting. (This is the same man who said of Stormy Daniels: "Let me cross-examine you. Because the business you're in entitles you to no degree of giving your credibility any weight.")
Giuliani's Salem comparison is also part of a greater Republican strategy of victimization. Take, for example, Trump's tweet from later that evening.
The Greatest Witch Hunt in the history of the USA! https://t.co/6FW11oLBv3
In case it bears repeating: This is not a witch hunt. Just ask Robert Mueller, who testified to the House Intelligence Committee that his own investigation "was not a witch hunt" and "not a hoax." Or take it from women, who were persecuted during legitimate ones.
Trump's coven can try to re-write the narrative, and America history along with it, but they're not fooling anyone.
Tagged: Trump Impeachment, Women's History
About Jonathan Chang
Jonathan Chang is an editorial intern at Ms.
The House is Drafting Articles of Impeachment Against President Trump
William Barr is Wrong on Impeachment and Executive Power
Sheila Markin Nielsen


Melksham skittlers have continued their brilliant season by bringing yet another intercounty trophy home.
This time it was the Melksham Allsorts C team who claimed victory over no less than 32 teams at a major weekend tournament held in Torquay. The specially-formed team, who play out of various clubs in Melksham, emerged triumphant, scoring 421 points in the finals and beating their nearest opponents by just three pins.
Forty team members and supporters from Melksham made the trip to South Devon for the competition, part of the Serious About Weekends Series 2018. The three teams, Allsorts A B and C found their form early and all qualified comfortably for the finals, a feat almost unheard of in the 25-year history of these competitions.
The three teams found themselves pitched against a strong opposition from Wales, Devon, Gloucestershire, Worcestershire, Somerset, Bristol and Avon.
Captain of Allsorts C, Richard George, said it was relatively easy getting through to the finals but from then on, the heat was on. It was close, with just seven pins separating the first four teams in a nail-biting finish. Allsorts C team claimed the trophy with 421 points, just three ahead of nearest rivals the Moffs Muppets on 418.
Allsorts A finished in fourth place with 414 and Allsorts B came eighth with 354 points.
This is the second victory in this year's competition series to be won by a Melksham team. Melksham Sports won a previous tournament in Torquay in March. Meanwhile, The Good, The Bad and The Ugly teams A and B did well in Mill Rhythe on Hayling Island, where they finished third and fifth, in a field of 40 teams.
Serious About Events also stage the British Skittles Championships which are currently in the group rounds and play off stages.
Pictured: Left to right: Mascot "Monkey", Mark Hughes, Lisa Hughes, Chris Cooke, Kim Adams, Team Captain Paul "Buzz" Barnett, Andrea Smart, Andy "Webby" Webb, Kevin Whatley, Kevin "Wee Man" Bainton, Sandra Webb and Andy "Billy" Bainton.


Robust design with new generation easy to handle lid-locking nut. Low noise levels due to rubber paddings. IP-55 motor protection. Large capacity strainer basket. Flow rates given at 8 m head for 1/2 HP, and 10 head from 3/4 HP onwards. 3,000 rpm. The Astral Victoria Plus has come up to the fusion of Astral Victoria and Sprint pump series. All their parts have been merged between the Sprint and Victoria series. New Prefilter cover: Victoria Plus has a new prefilter cover fully compatible with the Victorias and Sprints prefilter cover. The new design of this prefilter cover unifies the image of the Columbia, the Sena and Victoria Plus series. Pump base: The pump base has been merged between the Sprint and Victoria series, focused on a motor size criterion: The pump base for frames 63 & 71, related to power rates till 1 HP, comes from the Sprint series. The pump base for frames 80 & 90, related to power rates till 3 HP,comes from the Victoria series. This merge has been introduced with the aim of providing better pump and motor support when it is required, just introducing a small base when dealing with small motor frames and a largest base for the biggest motor frames. . According the Energy Efficiency regulation class IE2.


text:
Banana.expects(edible: true, color: "yellow")
Banana.expects(:delicious?).returns(true)

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


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"Each nominated property should have an appropriate management plan or other documented management system which must specify how the Outstanding Universal Value of a property should be preserved, preferably through participatory means."
Theme: 2.2.5.3 - Management systems
"The purpose of a management system is to ensure the effective protection of the nominated property for present and future generations."
"An effective management system depends on the type, characteristics and needs of the nominated property and its cultural and natural context. Management systems may vary according to different cultural perspectives, the resources available and other factors. They may incorporate traditional practices, existing urban or regional planning instruments, and other planning control mechanisms, both formal and informal. Impact assessments for proposed interventions are essential for all World Heritage properties."
"In recognizing the diversity mentioned above, common elements of an effective management system could include:
a) a thorough shared understanding of the property, its universal, national and local values and its socio-ecological context by all stakeholders, including local communities and indigenous peoples;
b) a respect for diversity, equity, gender equality and human rights and the use of inclusive and participatory planning and stakeholder consultation processes;
c) a cycle of planning, implementation, monitoring, evaluation and feedback;
d) an assessment of the vulnerabilities of the property to social, economic, environmental and other pressures and changes, including disasters and climate change, as well as the monitoring of the impacts of trends and proposed interventions;
e) the development of mechanisms for the involvement and coordination of the various activities between different partners and stakeholders;
f) the allocation of necessary resources;
g) capacity building;
h) an accountable, transparent description of how the management system functions."
"Effective management involves a cycle of short, medium and long-term actions to protect, conserve and present the nominated property. An integrated approach to planning and management is essential to guide the evolution of properties over time and to ensure maintenance of all aspects of their Outstanding Universal Value. This approach goes beyond the property to include any buffer zone(s), as well as the broader setting. The broader setting may relate to the property's topography, natural and built environment, and other elements such as infrastructure, land use patterns, spatial organization, and visual relationships. It may also include related social and cultural practices, economic processes and other intangible dimensions of heritage such as perceptions and associations. Management of the broader setting is related to its role in supporting the Outstanding Universal Value. Its effective management may also contribute to sustainable development, through harnessing the reciprocal benefits for heritage and society."
"States Parties are responsible for implementing effective management activities for a World Heritage property. States Parties should do so in close collaboration with property managers, the agency with management authority and other partners, local communities and indigenous peoples, rights-holders and stakeholders in property management, by developing, when appropriate, equitable governance arrangements, collaborative management systems and redress mechanisms."
"The Committee recommends that States Parties include disaster, climate change and other risk preparedness as an element in their World Heritage site management plans and training strategies."
"The delineation of boundaries is an essential requirement in the establishment of effective protection of nominated properties. Boundaries should be drawn to incorporate all the attributes that convey the Outstanding Universal Value and to ensure the integrity and/or authenticity of the property."
Theme: 2.2.6.1 - Boundaries
"For properties nominated under criteria (i) - (vi), boundaries should be drawn to include all those areas and attributes which are a direct tangible expression of the Outstanding Universal Value of the property, as well as those areas which in the light of future research possibilities offer potential to contribute to and enhance such understanding."
"For properties nominated under criteria (vii) - (x), boundaries should reflect the spatial requirements of habitats, species, processes or phenomena that provide the basis for their inscription on the World Heritage List. The boundaries should include sufficient areas immediately adjacent to the area of Outstanding Universal Value in order to protect the property's heritage values from direct effect of human encroachments and impacts of resource use outside of the nominated area."
"The boundaries of the nominated property may coincide with one or more existing or proposed protected areas, such as national parks or nature reserves, biosphere reserves or protected cultural or historic districts or other areas and territories. While such established areas for protection may contain several management zones, only some of those zones may satisfy requirements for inscription."
Decision of the World Heritage Committee 35 COM 8B.46
7. "[The World Heritage Committee] considers that modifications to boundaries of World Heritage properties that are related to mining activities should be considered through the procedure for significant modifications of boundaries, in accordance with paragraph 165 of the Operational Guidelines, given the potential impact of such projects on Outstanding Universal Value."
Decision: 35 COM 8B.46
"A nominated property may occur:
a) on the territory of a single State Party, or
b) on the territory of all concerned States Parties having adjacent borders (transboundary property)."
Theme: 2.7.2 - Transboundary and transnational properties
"Wherever possible, transboundary nominations should be prepared and submitted by States Parties jointly in conformity with Article 11.3 of the Convention. It is highly recommended that the States Parties concerned establish a joint management committee or similar body to oversee the management of the whole of a transboundary property."
"Extensions to an existing World Heritage property located in one State Party may be proposed to become transboundary properties."
Decision of the World Heritage Committee 7 EXT.COM 4A
"II. TRANSBOUNDARY AND TRANSNATIONAL NOMINATIONS
6) [The World Heritage Committee] decides to consider as:
(a) transboundary nomination, only a property jointly nominated as such, in conformity with Article 11.3 of the Convention, by all concerned States Parties having adjacent borders;
(b) transnational nomination, a serial nomination of properties located in the territory of different States Parties, which need not be contiguous and which are nominated with the consent of all States Parties concerned".
Decision: 7 EXT.COM 4A
Decision of the World Heritage Committee 29 COM 18A
3. "[The World Heritage Committee] aware of the need to specify the submission modalities for the nomination of transboundary or transnational serial properties on the World Heritage List,
4. (…):
a) The States Parties co-authors of a transboundary or transnational serial nomination can choose, amongst themselves and with a common understanding, the State Party which will be bearing this nomination; and
b) This nomination can be registered exclusively within the ceiling of the bearing State Party."
Decision: 29 COM 18A


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(07) 3040 6062 contact@slymedical.com
Greenslopes Hospital Website
What Is AIDS? What Is HIV?
by Medical News Today | 13 May 2012 | Dossier
AIDS (Acquired immune deficiency syndrome or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) is a disease caused by a virus called HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus). The illness alters the immune system, making people much more vulnerable to infections and diseases. This susceptibility worsens as the disease progresses. HIV is found in the body fluids of an infected person (semen and vaginal fluids, blood and breast milk). The virus is passed from one person to another through blood-to-blood and sexual contact. In addition, infected pregnant women can pass HIV to their babies during pregnancy, delivering the baby during childbirth, and through breast feeding. HIV can be transmitted in many ways, such as vaginal, oral sex, anal sex, blood transfusion, and contaminated hypodermic needles. Both the virus and the disease are often referred to together as HIV/AIDS. People with HIV have what is called HIV infection. As a result, some will then develop AIDS. The development of numerous opportunistic infections in an AIDS patient can ultimately lead to death. According to research, the origins of HIV date back to the late nineteenth or early twentieth century in west-central Africa. AIDS and its cause, HIV, were first identified and recognized in the early 1980s. There is currently no cure for HIV/AIDS. Treatments can slow the course of the disease - some infected people can live a long and relatively healthy life. Estimated HIV/AIDS prevalence among young adults (15-49) by country as of 2008. UNAIDS 2008 report What is the difference between HIV and AIDS? HIV is the virus which attacks the T-cells in the immune system. AIDS is the syndrome which appears in advanced stages of HIV infection. HIV is a virus. AIDS...
South Africa Recalls Millions Of Condoms
by Medical News Today | 31 Jan 2012 | Dossier
Health authorities in South Africa have recalled more than a million condoms that were handed out in the lead up to the African National Congress centenary celebrations. The action was taken after South Africa's HIV group Treatment Action Campaign (TAC) issued a warning, having received complaints from the public, that large numbers of faulty condoms appeared to be in circulation in the Bloemfontein area. 8,700 boxes of condoms, with the South African Bureau of Standards stamp, were delivered to guesthouses, hotels, restaurants and bars before the ANC celebrations. Authorities are still investigating complaints that the condoms are porous. The Free State Health Department said the recall, which they estimate at 1.35 million condoms is just a "precautionary measure" and asked the public not to be alarmed. TAC's Sello Mokhalipi told the BBC that condoms : "Are still out there in large numbers and that is of great concern to us ... The complaints are that the condoms broke during intercourse." He continued that the TAC conducted its own investigations using some of the condoms handed out during the centenary celebrations and discovered them to be porous : Free State Health Department spokesperson Jabu Mbalula said the health authority would not be able to make a clear statement on the issue until it had conducted its own tests on the condoms recovered from the handouts. This is the first time that Free State province, which has a population of 5.5 million people, needed to recall condoms, although it's not the first time that South Africa has had problems of this kind. In August 2007 when 20 million contraceptives were recalled after "hundreds...


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Chapter 5 FINDING A BODYGUARD
"I can't deal with this right now Vivi. Look, I know you are wise and smart. You can handle things on your own. Call me later." She said into the phone before ending the call. After this, she put the phone in the purse to focus on the magazine on her laps.
She was at the salon with lots of heat blowing into her skull from the hair dryer. Her movie was going to be premiered the next day and all hands were on deck but still she couldn't shake off the feeling that something was about to happen in her life. What could it be?
You know that feeling you have when you feel like you have forgotten something and you couldn't stop thinking about what it could be, yea, that feeling.
Her mind drifted off to the dream she had two nights ago, it had started so sweet and her body had responded in the most amazing manner. She couldn't understand why she felt as if she had never been with a man before. It was so strong. She wanted him so badly in her dream-this same man but why did he always have to change every time the dream ended. What kind of a nightmare was this? The worse part was that she couldn't tell if he was trying to attack her or make love to her, it all started so romantically anyway. It was like the man was just two different people, -sweet and dangerous. Those were the two words that must never come together. The more she kept thinking about it, the more it sent waves of heat down her entire being and not to talk of the one rushing into her skull. Her eyelids were coming together slowly...
She kept shifting uncomfortably in her chair. The heat in her head was about to make her head explode so she stepped out of her chair, with the hot towel still around her neck.
The hair stylist walked up to her as he noticed what just happened.
"Are you okay Harmony?" He asked.
"Well, Tom, I can't continue. It's just too much heat in there." She replied, everyone was looking at her now.
"But the setting needs to be in place." Tom replied, patting the curls on her head with his hands.
"I know, trust me but I think I will just go and come back tomorrow." She replied.
"Well, no problem darling. Let me fetch Tracey for you."
Some minutes later, she walked hand in hand with her daughter out of the saloon. Tracy was busing tossing her balloon in the air and bouncing it up with one hand. She was really happy with what she was doing.
By the time she got to her car, while looking for her keys, she noticed her daughter had run after the balloon that had been carried off in the air.
"Tracy come back here!" She shouted after her but Tracy was too excited to listen to her mum.
When Harmony finally found her, she realized she was talking with a man whose back was turned towards her and who looked exactly like the figure she had seen on the road that night.
"Tracy, come back here."
"Mum, meet my new friend..."
Her chest was rising and falling as the man was turning around but instead of human face, all she saw were the fangs of his teeth and she screamed.
"Harmony, are you okay...?"
She opened her eyes and realized everyone in the saloon was looking at her. She had slept off where she was drying her hair. Quickly, she stood up, panic was evidently written on her face.
"Are you okay? Tom asked, coming over to her side. Everything was happening all over again. Without further ado, she threw away the towel around her neck and rushed out of the saloon.
Ichabod opened his eyes immediately and Adams rushed in.
"I saw you come in right now, I was shouting your name and you didn't respond, what happened?"
He sat up right, standing up. "That wasn't me. That was Odin. The ring can't retain him any longer, he is getting too strong. If I can change into odin at any moment of the day, then I don't think I can stand a chance any longer. I need to meet the lady now."
** ** ***
"You can't be serious." Vivian blurted out.
" I am serious Vivi, "
"No you can't be, it's either you are crazy or something is wrong with you. You just moved into that house weeks ago and now you are thinking of selling it and getting another one?"
Harmony sighed, she knew she sounded crazy but how else would she explain to her friend that she was scared as ever. That she had been having these dreams that were really scarring the life out of her. That she was scared for her daughter's life and hers. That she had this feeling that something terrible was going to happen and she could feel it was coming very fast.
"Is there something that you are not telling me?" Vivi asked in her gentle voice, she came over to sit beside her, brushing her hair back with the back of her hand.
Harmony sighed. "Babe, I am so scared of staying alone in that house." She confessed. She had left the salon to come over to her friend's place.
"You are scared? Again? But you were scared was why you moved out from your other house and you got this one. Is there something else? What are you afraid of? You have a maid with you."
"Yea, but who only comes during the day. Look, I am a mother, I am allowed to be scared. Especially with the whole th
"Let's go and register our marriage on your birthday!"
Marrying Daniel should have been her best birthday gift, but everything was ruined the moment when she caught him sleeping with another woman on the day before her birthday.
"He's going to marry that woman! She... was my best friend!"
ing that happened the other night."
"You mean the accident?"
Harmony nodded.
Vivia inhaled a deep breath. "I think the problem is that you need a man in your life."
Harmony looked at her and shook her head. "No, I don't."
"Yes you do. I don't understand the whole thing with you and Michael but if you guys will keep going on and off then you need stability. You need a man that will be with you every night."
"I don't need a man Harmony, I need a bodyguard." Harmony replied and vivi burst into laughter.
"Well, maybe a cute, sexy bodyguard will put you on the right edge." Her friend replied and she threw her a dangerous look.
"I don't care, I just need a body guard that will drive me around as well."
"That's not a problem, I will find one for you." Vivi said with a wink but her friend groaned. "Excuse me, will be right back." She said before leaving.
Harmony sighed and brought out her phone. She checked the time, it was just minutes after two in the afternoon, she would need to go pick Tracy up from school and from there, she would go for the premier of her latest movie 'ENTANGLED.'
Her phone beeped and she realized she got a message, she opened it and frowned, it was Michael.
"Hey babe. I'm coming into town tomorrow from Manchester. Care to get a drink, you can bring Tracy along."
She scoffed as her friend entered, in her hand was her tab, she seemed pretty excited but frowned as she saw the look on her face.
"What's the matter?" Vivi asked.
"It's Michael, he wants to have a drink tomorrow with Tracy and I." She said, throwing the phone on the couch.
"Wow! The almighty coach is coming into town. Are you down for it?"
"I dunno yet. What's up, what are you doing?"
Vivi smiled. "Being your bestfriend and your social media handler, I just announced that we are in need of a body guard with these qualifications..." She said, laughing and showing Harmony the info on her tab.
Harmony took the tab and read.
"He must be well built and must have a good background. No criminal record except for a good course. Six abs and cuteness is a bonus.
"Oh my God! Vivi! This is like saying I am horny and I needed a man to take the stress off. What were you thinking?"
Vivi laughed, "but I didn't say that. I only said he must be a perfect gentleman who knows how to treat a lady right. Look at those cute men that are responding though, I mean check out those abs!"
Harmony clicked on the pictures coming in and she shook her head but still, she couldn't but drool at the pictures. There were about 5 messages showing interest already and all of them were shirtless. They were all as sexy as hell.
"Oh God!" She shut her eyes and handed Vivi who couldn't stop laughing her tab.
"You are a bad influence. These are gigolos Vivi. Thanks for your help. I will handle things my way...I need to go pick my girl from school."
"But what about the bodyguard?"
"I will find one for myself. Will check online, will like to go quietly. Don't want to reveal who I am so as not to attract the wrong men." She replied, standing up and was about to go, then stopped, "send those pictures to my phone will you?"
Vivi laughed, "so you like what you saw?"
"Yes but they are not going to be my bodyguard, there's no harm, looking at pictures is it?"
"Bad girl!" Her friend shouted after her before she closed the door.
"Do you mind smiling a little bit?" Adams said, holding his phone in his hand to take Ichabod's picture.
"I do not understand what you are asking of me dear old Adams." Ichabod replied, trying to stand still while Adams took his picture.
"I just need to take this picture and submit to the bodyguard site."
"Wait, you want me to be a bodyguard?"
"Sure, why not? You can start from there, once we sell the gold, we will be left with nothing once we run out of them."
Ichabod shook his head. "What does the job entail anyway?"
"Driving and guarding."
"Driving? For God's sake I don't know how to drive."
"Don't worry, you will learn it, I told a friend of mine to give us his truck so you can learn with that."
"Oh Lord! I hope you are not trying to get me killed."
"Just stand still...wait. If you can't drive a truck, how did you stop the truck the other night?"
"It wasn't me. That was Odin." Ichabod replied, "That idiot can do anything."
"Oh, I see. Now hold still while I take your picture."
Ichabod stood still and blinked as the light flashed.
"Well, this is better." Adams said before moving to the computer on the table.
Ichabod watched as Adams operated on what he called, 'the box of witchcraft.' He had been locked in the coffin for so long and so many things have changed. He couldn't understand how such a box could hold so much information.
While he walked from where he stood and down to the bar, he heard Adams shout.
"Oh! That was fast, someone just sent a message, you are going for an interview tomorrow."
Ichabod frowned. "An interview? But I haven't even learned how to drive."
"Well, then I better call Simon to bring the car quickly."


text:
Scenarios for selected maritime economic functions
H. A. Wolters1,
J. Gille2,
J. M. de Vet3 &
R. J. Molemaker3
European Journal of Futures Research volume 1, Article number: 11 (2013) Cite this article
This paper discusses the use of scenarios in the 'Blue Growth' project, which was aimed at elaborating the maritime dimension of the Europe 2020 strategy, with a 15-year time horizon (2025/2030). Scenarios were understood and developed in two ways: as descriptions of plausible, desirable and realistic future developments (the 'micro-future scenarios') and as a means to foster uncertainty awareness (the 'general scenarios'). The general scenarios were developed as a scenario matrix, following Van der Heijden (1996). The micro-futures were developed following the approach proposed by Miller (Futures 39:341–362, 2007). The direct impact of the general scenarios on policy development cannot yet be evaluated. The micro-futures, being relatively concrete, were very useful to trigger discussions. In addition, the evaluation of the micro-futures in the light of the general scenarios led to some valuable insights. Within the Blue Growth project, the use of this hybrid approach has led to an active involvement of stakeholders, generating energy in the process of defining a desirable future, while taking account of uncertainties in the developments in global development.
This paper is a case study of the application of forward looking activities in the 'Blue Growth' project. The Blue Growth project was commissioned by EC's Directorate General for Fisheries and Maritime Affairs (DG Mare). The DG Mare is the commission department responsible for the implementation of the Integrated Maritime Policy and the Common Fisheries Policy. It works to develop the potential of the European maritime economy and to secure a safe and stable supply of seafood, sustainable fisheries, healthy seas and prosperous coastal communities.Footnote 1 The Blue Growth project was executed by a consortium of Ecorys (economic research and consultancy, based in Rotterdam, the Netherlands), Deltares (a water management research institute, based in Delft, the Netherlands) and Océanic Développement (a consultant on fisheries, based in Brest, France). The project ran from December 2010 to August 2012.
Scope and goals of the Blue Growth project
The project's aim was to elaborate the maritime dimension of the Europe 2020 strategy, Europe's growth strategy for the coming decade [1]. Blue Growth is hence defined as 'smart, sustainable and inclusive economic and employment growth from the oceans, seas and coasts'. The main body of work of the project consisted of the collection of evidence for the potential for such growth by analysis of statistical data, available literature and insights from experts and stakeholders. This effort covered all of Europe's sea basins (including the Outermost Regions) and a selected number of economic functions (explained in the next paragraph). The resulting reports and insights provide policy-makers at EU and sea-basin level with a comprehensive, robust and consistent analysis of the present status and with focus points for policy options to support smart, sustainable and inclusive growth from the oceans, seas and coasts. The time horizon of the study was some 15 years, looking at the years 2025/2030.
Maritime economic functions
The maritime economy consists of all the sectoral and cross-sectoral economic activities related to the oceans, seas and coasts. While these activities are often geographically specific, this definition also includes the closest direct and indirect supporting activities (which may be land based), necessary for the functioning of the maritime economic sectors.
The list of sectors relevant in the maritime perspective is extensive. To establish a comprehensive view on economic activities that are related to sea or sea resources, the consortium has proposed to use an approach which is more closely linked to these resources, by addressing the main maritime functions of the oceans, seas and coasts. Maritime functions are defined as broad groups of economic activities that are related to the seas or to sea resources. Maritime functions thus cover the possible uses of seas and oceans by mankind. As a starting point, six main categories of functions were identified (Fig. 1).
The six main categories of economic uses of the seas and oceans, as identified in the Blue Growth project
Within these six main categories, the consortium identified a total of 27 functions, later condensed to 25 functions (Table 1). Due to time and financial constraints, the study has focused on a selection of 12 of these 25 functions, indicated in bold in Table 1. These 12 functions were selected by three criteria: size, recent growth and future growth potential. All 25 functions were ranked according to these three criteria, and for each criterion separately, the top 7 was identified. Accounting for multiple occurrence of the same function in the three top 7's, this procedure resulted in the 12 functions mentioned. For more details of the selection procedure and criteria used, see Ecorys et al. [2].
Table 1 The six main categories of maritime economic uses and the 25 economic functions as identified in the Blue Growth project
Life cycle of the economic functions
A concept that has proven to be useful in the project was the application of the product life cycle to the economic functions, as illustrated in Fig. 2. The theory on the development stages comes from the marketing domain related to product life cycles [3]. Every product that is brought to market passes four development phases. These phases are: introduction, growth, maturity and decline. Others use different names for the same phases, or sometimes phases are split in two. The theory on market phases can be extended with the stages of product development before introduction: (pre-)development. While other researchers structure this cycle in phases with different names, the principle is similar. The concept of the life cycle offers an easy-to-grasp explanation for certain differences found between groups of economic functions, for example, differences in business models, access to finance and critical mass.
Development stages in the product life cycle, as applied in the Blue Growth project to maritime economic functions
The Blue Growth project focused on the future potential of the economic functions. Therefore, no attention was given to functions in the declining phase; no future growth potential is expected from these. This leaves the categories (pre-)development, introduction and growth and maturity.
Contextual and transactional environment
A last useful notion to be highlighted here is the distinction in literature [4] of the transactional and contextual domains in the environment of an organisation. An organisation is interpreted here in a broad sense as the group of interconnected organisations (enterprises, researchers, consultants, etc.) that together represent an economic maritime function. The contextual environment is the part of the environment that indirectly influences the organisation, but that cannot be influenced by it. The transactional environment can be influenced, to varying degrees, by the organisation, while it has a direct influence on the organisation. While this distinction helps to come to grips with the more clear-cut examples, the exact demarcation line between both types of the environment is often hard to define.
A hybrid scenario approach
Use of scenarios
An important task in the Blue Growth study was the development of scenarios for potential future developments. During the initial stages of the project, it gradually became clear that scenarios were understood in two different ways: first as a description of the plausible, desirable and realistic future developments, aimed at the identification of initiatives that may benefit from support by DG Mare, and second as a means to develop awareness of uncertainty in future developments in order to help DG Mare develop robust policy options. These different interpretations of the term scenarios are likely to produce very different end results. These differences in interpretations are also reflected in literature, e.g. Miller [5] who discerns conceivable, possible, probable and desirable scenarios, while stressing the importance of keeping the differences well in mind. Similarly, Van der Heijden [6] separates the possible futures (described in scenarios) from probable and desired ones (described in business ideas). Because the method proposed by Miller fits well the requirements for the first interpretation of scenarios, and the one by Van der Heijden for the second, their approaches were chosen in the project.
Conceivable but impossible scenarios were not taken into consideration. The challenge in the project now was to incorporate elements of the three remaining scenario types (possible, probable and desirable ones) without mixing them up. To this end, a hybrid approach was followed which was largely similar to the one proposed in [5]. Two different types of scenarios: the 'general scenarios' and the 'micro-futures' were introduced. These two types correspond well to the contextual and transactional scenarios as identified by Van Notten et al. [7].
An additional reason to develop two scenario types stems from the issue of the geographical scale of this study. As it covers the whole of Europe, there are important differences per region and per function in what is relevant and uncertain. Building two types of scenarios, even though inspired by the different types rather than different scales, helps to bridge the gap.
General scenarios
The main purpose of developing the general scenarios is to identify trends and raise awareness of these trends and related threats and opportunities that have an impact on the maritime functions in the EU, in as far as they are sensitive to EU policies.
During the development and use of the general scenarios, the leading questions were: 'what is relevant' and 'what is uncertain'. The relevance of trends is reflected in the degree to which an organisation, or in this case, an economic maritime function, is sensitive to differences in the way the trend evolves. By scoring the degree of uncertainty of relevant trends, the most uncertain and relevant trends are identified, which then make up the key differences between the scenarios. The general scenario approach starts from the contextual environment (Fig. 3). In the case of policy development, literature points to the fact that the distinction between the contextual and transactional environment is often difficult to define, given the ambition of national and international policy to have wide-reaching impacts. This was also found in the discussions held during the project.
Types of environments of an organisation (after Nekkers [8])
The general scenarios provide the background for the SWOT analysis of the development of the maritime economic functions, as described in the 'Micro-future scenarios' section.
Micro-future scenarios
A 'micro-future scenario', a term coined during the course of the project, is a future outlook for a particular maritime economic function. It indicates the potential of the function. Whether or not it is achieved will depend on whether the right conditions are met in terms of contextual drivers, response capacity and framework conditions. Therefore, micro-futures are not forecasts.
In the project, the micro-future scenarios were used to identify potential options for policy measures that can help to promote the smart, sustainable and inclusive development of the economic function considered (Fig. 4).
Flow chart depicting the interrelations between the general scenarios, the micro-future scenarios and the focus points for policy measures
The micro-futures include a normative element, because they are designed to represent a desirable and ambitious future for the economic activity. As such, they may serve as a starting point for backcasting in a sharing and negotiation process with stakeholders, addressing questions such as 'What can or should the stakeholders do, and when, to make this future a reality'.
The desirability of these scenarios for the EC is judged by the Europe 2020 policy goals: smart, sustainable and inclusive growth [1]. Stakeholders may however apply different criteria. The balance between ambition and reality is pursued by aiming at above-average estimates, while making sure to stay rooted in the best available information from literature and interviews.
Construction of the general scenarios
The general scenarios were developed by the scenario matrix approach as explained in Van der Heijden [6]. This scenario approach provides a way to incorporate external uncertainties in the strategic planning of organisations. It starts from the possible developments in the contextual environment. Within a framework that is constructed from selected trends (the ones which are both most relevant to the organisation and most uncertain), plausible storylines are developed for the different combinations of these selected trends. The storylines are combined in scenarios, which are then used as a testing ground for planned activities.
Drivers and trends in the contextual environment
The drivers in the contextual environment are organised in six main categories (Fig. 3): demography, economy and market, technology and science, environment including climate change, sociology and culture and politics and institutions. Because in this study no relevant trends in sociology and culture were identified, it has been omitted. Within the five remaining categories, important subcategories were identified in literature [9–18] as listed in Fig. 5.
Scores of 20 trends on relative certainty and relevance for 12 maritime economic functions
Relevance and certainty of the drivers and trends
Figure 5 depicts the scores of the drivers in the contextual environment on relevance and certainty.
The indicator of relevance is the number of economic functions for which the driver was mentioned as being relevant in the detailed descriptions of the economic activities [2].
The degree of certainty was derived from the literature, cited where possible and where not available, estimated by the authors of the report. It was scored on a five-point scale (uncertain/moderately uncertain/neutral/moderately certain/certain). Considerations in this step include the following:
Demographic trends (population growth, increasing urbanisation, ageing population, increasing water and food scarcity, international migrations): There is broad consensus in the literature cited [15–17] on the general direction and pace of these trends. Increasing water scarcity is here understood as the scarcity that is caused by increasing demand for water by a growing population and increasing per capita use, excluding stress caused by decreasing supply, which makes up part of the environment and climate change trend mentioned below.
Economic and market trends (economic climate, globalisation, increasing economic role of Asia, increasing price volatility, increasing scarcity of raw materials and energy, striving after self-reliance) are more controversial. In the long term, growth may be expected and the financial crisis will be overcome, but for the time horizon of 2025, developments are uncertain, especially in Europe [10]. Globalisation and striving for self-reliance are both quite persistent trends in themselves and are therefore rated as moderately certain [10, 17]. The uncertainty arises where these two trends meet, counteracting each other. The increasing economic role of Asia is regarded as certain, at least for the coming decade; related to that, also increasing scarcity of fossil fuels and raw materials are regarded certain. Price volatility will depend on the way global governance will be shaped. This can develop in very different ways, also in the short term, and is therefore rated as moderately uncertain.
Technology and science (technology as a driver for growth, increasing role of Asia): Technological development is important for virtually all maritime economic activities. In most cases, technological development is driven by the sector itself as part of its response capacity (for an explanation, see 'Construction of the micro-future scenarios') and not part of the contextual environment. Here, the scope is restricted to worldwide technological developments that offer new growth potential, such as ICT, nanotechnology and DNA technology. Also, in this respect, the upcoming role of Asia seems clear (see amongst others the R&D mining results in [2]), therefore moderately certain. New technologies on the contrary will still have to prove their (economic) viability for the economic activities; therefore, it is rated moderately uncertain.
Environment and climate change: Pressures on the environment and on the available space are consequences of economic and demographic trends. As these are growing, so are the expectations for the resulting environmental pressures [11]. A possible way to reverse the trend would be a transition to sustainable practices worldwide [15], and though this is a desired future state, it is not expected to be reached within the time horizon of this study. Climate change and sea level rise are expected to continue.
Politics and institutions (increasing role of EU, increasing emphasis on sustainability, retreating public sector, development of 'weak states') are overall the most uncertain category of drivers. The role of the EU is that of a driver in the contextual environment for non-governmental stakeholders, while for DG Mare, it is part of both the contextual and the transactional environment. On balance, the bias is on the contextual character of this driver. By its nature, it implicitly includes normative uncertainties, i.e. uncertainty in the ways the general public looks at the tasks and roles of authorities at local, national and EU level.
Figure 5 shows that globalisation is the most frequently mentioned trend. Globalisation and increasing international competition are relevant to all economic activities investigated. They thereby provide a strong urge to look beyond the EU borders. In most, but not all economic activities, these drivers are seen as a threat.
Political and regulatory commitments to sustainability are mentioned eight times (out of 12). For some economic activities, this driver is seen as a constraint or a source of an unequal playing field (e.g. in short sea shipping, because European regulation is stricter than average). For others, it is an important incentive to growth because it directly (as in environmental monitoring) or indirectly (as in offshore wind energy and ocean energy) favours the function.
Increasing scarcity of fossil fuels is a recognised [10, 14] and here re-confirmed driver for the majority of the economic activities considered. As with sustainability, some economic activities are favoured by this trend (offshore wind, ocean renewable energy), while others are affected adversely (coastal tourism, cruise tourism). The effect of the driver on the economic function 'offshore oil and gas' is ambiguous. Increasing scarcity signals the end of activities, but increasing prices are incentives to new explorations.
Construction of the scenario matrix
The top 5 for combined scores on relevance and uncertainty are: economic climate, technology, increasing price volatility, growing emphasis on sustainability and the increasing role of the EU. These trends provide the differentiating factors between scenarios.
The top 5 for combined scores on relevance and certainty are: globalisation, increasing scarcity of fossil fuels, increasing pressures on the environment, ageing population and the increasing role of Asia. These trends are included in all of the scenarios.
From the five most relevant and uncertain drivers, economic climate and increasing price volatility were combined, coupling for both drivers the worst and best situations. Technology is included in the storylines of the scenarios, as it often correlates well with economic development. The increasing role of the EU was not taken into consideration here, in order not to repeat discussions which are already sufficiently addressed. The resulting axes of the scenario matrix are: slowly recovering, strongly fluctuating world economy vs. stable worldwide economic development and limited vs. strong emphasis on sustainability.
The resulting four scenarios are outside the direct control of policies—and representing possible futures. The scenarios can have a significant impact on the way in which Europe's Blue Growth develops, as the potential for Blue Growth maritime economic activities will vary depending on the scenario that will materialise (Fig. 6).
Scenario matrix for Blue Growth's general scenarios
In Table 2, the four general scenarios are described in more detail for the aspects economy, science and technology, environment and climate, international relations and the role of public authorities.
Table 2 Developments of some determining variables in the four scenarios
Construction of the micro-future scenarios
Micro-future scenarios were developed roughly following step 1 of Riel Miller's Hybrid Strategic Scenario method [5]. In this step, awareness is developed and shared and implicit knowledge (about expectations, values, expected developments over time) is made explicit. The analytical framework for this step was developed in the study [2] and comprises the following building blocks:
Drivers in the contextual environment: a selection of the drivers described in the previous section, relevant for the function.
Response capacity: The capacity and capability of a function to respond to drivers in the contextual environment and to global market conditions. Similar terms are resilience or adaptive capacity. The response capacity is determined by a variety of elements, which include:
Adjustment capacity to new regulations, including those in the area of environment, energy and emissions
Structure and organisation, covering the overall structure of the function in terms of, for example, enterprise composition (size), specialisation and segmentation, economies of scale and scope, geographical clustering, company formation, growth and closure, etc.
Firm strategies and business models, covering the different strategies followed by companies and organisations (e.g. cost-based, innovation-driven, branding and marketing)
Production process, including the economies of scale and existing (in-)efficiencies in the function
Industrial innovation and technological development, covering the management and organisation of production processes within the sector including, for example, not only technology utilisation, but also product and service development
Value chain relationships, covering the upstream (backward) and downstream (forward) linkages between industry (and other) sectors and markets
It is through the interplay between these elements that the resilience of EU maritime functions is determined, and that market performance is attained—with profitability, productivity and employment as important outcomes.
Framework conditions cover a broad range of determinants shaping the business environment. They may be influenced directly or indirectly by policy measures. Essentially, this covers aspects of the business and operational environment that are external to individual (and collective) business operations of firms within the sector, but internal to policy makers at national and EU level, such as legal and regulatory frameworks, infrastructure, knowledge, labour force and skills, access to finance and public acceptance. Also, geographical characteristics are included here which are not influenced by policy.
The use of the development stages (Fig. 2) was particularly helpful in grouping the similarities and differences in the response capacity and the framework conditions of the functions [2].
Synergies and tensions: environmental impacts of each of the economic functions; synergies and tensions between economic functions.
Potential development: If the drivers in the contextual environment and the function responses evolve as sketched, the outcome or 'impact' of the function can be estimated in terms of economic (GDP and employment) and environmental indicators (e.g. water quality, air quality, waste production). This is called the potential development of the function.
As an example, a summary of the micro-future scenario for the function 'marine mineral mining', a function in the (pre-)development stage, is included in the text box below.
Micro-future scenarios like the one summarized here were developed for 12 out of the 25 economic functions, the ones indicated in bold in Table 1. The reports can be downloaded from the DG Mare website.Footnote 2 The reports were composed by a core expert team, based on available literature, completed and improved with the results of some 120 interviews and with inputs obtained during a 2-day expert meeting.
Marine mineral mining: a micro-future scenario
Marine mineral mining is still in an infant state. No excavation of solid minerals has taken place beyond 200 m below sea surface. Although the notion that the seabed might contain large mineral deposits exists for decades, the exploration was yet too costly. The technology for deep sea mining was not mature enough and the market price of these raw materials was not at a level that could support costly deep sea exploration. In the past few years, this is changing, as the market prices of most of these minerals have gone up significantly due to a combination of increased demand and increased supply risk. The increased demand is also driven by technological developments. Many of these minerals are important raw materials in high-tech applications. With the rise of the computer and mobile communication era, the demand for rare earths has steepened, and shortages are imminent—for geopolitical rather than for geological reasons. Meanwhile, land mines can no longer meet the growing demand.
In ocean floors around the globe, vast stocks of minerals are expected to be found. Based on interviews and literature, in [2], the estimates are that by 2020, 5 % of the world's precious minerals including cobalt, copper, zinc as well as rare earths can come from the ocean floors and by 2030 up to 10 %. A surge in marine mineral mining is expected to start after 2013, should the first commercial venture for polymetallic sulphides ('Solwara 1') succeed. Commercial excavation of copper and gold from the Exclusive Economic Zones of Papua New Guinea is expected to start in 2013 by the Canadian Nautilus mining company. Processing and smelting of the copper will take place in China. The Nautilus mining company has ordered a dedicated ship from a German shipyard. It will also use state-of-the art extraction tools, such as remotely operated vehicles (ROVs), cutters and risers developed for deep sea oil winning—supplied by European partners. The exploration of the largest known sulphide concentration, namely in the Red Sea, will soon start as well.
The extent to which European actors can benefit from this activity (an important matter in the light of the Europe 2020 Strategy) will depend on the strategy of major mining companies (many of which are from the USA, Australia and Canada) and their ability to obtain licenses. European companies are amongst the world leaders in key technologies such as dredging, drilling, cutting, transport and ROVs.
Uncertainties that surround this activity are market prices for minerals that need to remain consistently high on world markets. The metal contents found in deposits on the ocean floor need to be high. Technologies still need to be tested, mostly in the area of excavation devices, cutters and risers—through Nautilus' Solwara project at the Papua New Guinea coast. Cost reductions need to be achieved, particularly with regard to transport costs. Furthermore, the future of deep sea mining is expected to depend on overall public acceptance, as well as that of local communities.
Marine mineral mining can bring about considerable but yet unknown environmental concerns, through the disturbance of deep sea ecosystems. This is considered a major tension related to this activity. The deep sea and sea floor form an extensive and complex system which is linked to the rest of the planet in exchanges of matter, energy and biodiversity. Operations on the sea floor may destroy unique habitats and disturb deep sea ecosystems which could entail changes in fish stock and primary production. Pressures and impacts may also emerge from future activities related to mining, as well as carbon sequestration and gas hydrate extraction. These activities may result in loss of biodiversity and reduce the flow of ecosystem services.
Synergies may develop between marine mineral mining and oil and gas exploration and offshore industry, also through strengthening demand for dedicated ships. Marine mineral mining also provides synergies with blue biotechnology, notably by offering the infrastructure and support for exploration into new and rare species.
The most prominent framework conditions that need to be fulfilled to achieve the potential growth are as follows:
• Access to private capital for investment and upscaling
• Environmental impacts remain under control
• Acceptance of local coastal populations exposed to mining activities
• International legal framework: conditions for licensing in international waters
The maritime economic functions in the four general scenarios
The micro-futures were reviewed in the light of the principal uncertainties of the general scenarios. The overarching question is how these maritime economic activities are likely to unfold in the different general scenarios and to review whether the conditions for utilising the future potential are likely to be met.
Blue Growth prospects appear to profit most from a sustainable growth scenario—as stable economic growth combined with a growing environmental awareness and actions provide an excellent context for the majority of economic functions analysed. The long-term orientation of actors in this scenario contributes to a stable investment climate, particularly favourable for blue biotechnology, offshore wind and ocean renewable energy. Added to this scenario can be a flourishing deep sea and short sea shipping (replacing substantial parts of road transport), enhanced port facilities and capacities, a strongly increasing (sustainable) tourism sector and high investment levels in technologies for exploitation of marine biodiversity. An increasing role of the seas and oceans in human food production (sustainable aquaculture), intensified monitoring activities and intensified international coordination of the use of marine space also fit well in this scenario. In this scenario, expectations are particularly high for offshore wind, ocean renewable energy, blue biotechnology and marine aquatic products. Within several of these domains, Europe is in a leading position when it comes to technology and innovation: it has generated around half of the reviewed patents in offshore wind and some 25 % of the reviewed patents in ocean renewable energy sources. A strong performance can also be recorded in sustainable innovations for marine aquatic products. Furthermore, Europe is well placed to lead not only in the transformation of traditional maritime economic activities, e.g. green shipping, sustainable tourism, sustainable aquaculture, but also promoting more sustainable forms of business within oil and gas or marine mineral mining. Playing out the card of sustainable maritime innovations is likely to produce growth and jobs in a world which is increasingly aware of sustainability. This card is however less likely to be played successfully in a world which is short-term oriented and where Europe moves from crisis to crisis.
A pursued growth scenario will also provide opportunities, especially for the mature and growing activities. In this scenario, one may expect a flourishing deep sea and short sea shipping, enhanced port facilities and capacities, increasing coastal tourism in northern Europe driven by climate change effects and an increased demand for short trips, a strong cruise shipping sector. Also, high investment levels in technology, an increased role of the seas and oceans in traditional human food production and a persisting extraction of oil, gas and minerals from the deep seas (including the Arctic), supplemented by extensive monitoring activities, fit well in this scenario. Environmental awareness will however be lower.
Prospects will be more selective and limited in the fragile recovery scenario, which combines a low and unstable economic performance with a strong development of environmental awareness. Fluctuating transport volumes result in obsolete fleets and port facilities, a stable or declining cruise shipping sector and limited investments in developing technologies aimed at sustainability. Extraction of oil and gas is slowly declining and taken over by renewables, while the extraction of minerals from deep seas is slow to develop.
Within the boom and bust scenario, prospects are expected to be considerably less favourable—due above all to a short-term horizon of all actors, more risk-averseness, a low level of environmental awareness and restricted public and private investment budgets. Fluctuating transport volumes result in obsolete fleets and port facilities. Extraction of oil and gas from the deep seas continues, though without the necessary investments, because commodity price fluctuations add to uncertainty. Coastal tourism and cruise tourism will be relatively stable, with a focus on northern Europe due to climate change effects. Only limited investments are expected in developing new technologies, with dimmed prospects for offshore wind, ocean renewable energy and blue biotechnology as a consequence. Public resources for maritime monitoring activities will be limited. Especially in this scenario, additional policy support is likely to be needed.
Discussion and concluding remarks
In the course of the Blue Growth project, no opportunity could be found to perform a dedicated evaluation of the impact of the scenario work (apart from the evaluation of the project as a whole, which was performed following regular EC procedures). The notes in this section are therefore based on the observations of the authors only.
Literature (e.g. [6, 7]) shows that the impacts of scenarios may be divided in impacts on process and on content. Smith [19] presents a comprehensive tool for impact measurement of foresight studies, partly based on work done by Calof and Smith [20] and Johnston [21]. Smith introduces seven categories with a total of 54 measures to assess the impact of foresight studies. This structured approach was used by the authors as a checklist for a qualitative identification of the most relevant impacts (without repeating the full list of 54 measures):
The primary client affected is DG Mare; for this client, the key roles of the scenarios were awareness raising and providing information.
The primary benefits of the foresight study are related to the support that it provides to the development of a strategy to achieve the EU2020 goals;
Secondary benefits may be expected in the future through the establishment of new interconnections between stakeholders, which is important because of the high potential of synergies between economic functions that the study has identified.
The study has identified and partially involved the main stakeholders (during the stakeholder day and the expert meeting), thus adding to future policy support.
The study has framed the main policy issues and options, even though these have to be studied in more detail before they can be implemented.
The study has identified the main threats and opportunities for these policy measures.
The micro-futures' main impact has been their central role in sketching the potential future developments in the maritime functions. By their nature, the micro-futures are based on trend analyses, more so than the general scenarios. Their concrete and quantitative nature made them useful in triggering discussions during the meetings and in electronic communication with stakeholders, thus helping in evoking reactions, discussions and inputs that have contributed to improving the storylines. The descriptions of the present framework conditions and fields of desired policy measures, as incorporated in the micro-futures, have helped strongly in drafting the schematic overview of relevant policy fields to be considered in follow-up activities.
The general scenarios were used to test the robustness of the developments in the micro-futures ('The maritime economic functions in the four general scenarios'). The general scenarios were presented during the expert meeting and the stakeholder meetings that were organised in the project. Their use during these meetings was not evaluated explicitly. The authors' tentative conclusion is that, for policy makers, the incorporation of uncertainty (as represented by the general scenarios) is more difficult than the incorporation of ambition (as represented by the micro-futures). As a consequence, the impact of the general scenarios is not as visible as that of the micro-futures.
It is too early to evaluate the impact of the scenarios on DG Mare's actual policy development, because DG Mare has not yet specified new policy measures as based on the study. Some impacts are visible; for example, some of the insights of the Blue Growth final report have been used in the EC communication on Blue Growth [22]. Furthermore, DG Mare has embarked on various follow-up activities with respect to blue growth, which can be said to prove at least that the perspectives offered in the scenarios are favourable.
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Deltares, P.O. Box 85467, 3508 AL, Utrecht, The Netherlands
H. A. Wolters
Ecorys, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
J. Gille
Ecorys, Brussels, Belgium
J. M. de Vet & R. J. Molemaker
J. M. de Vet
R. J. Molemaker
Correspondence to H. A. Wolters.
This article is published under license to BioMed Central Ltd. Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits any use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited.
Wolters, H.A., Gille, J., de Vet, J.M. et al. Scenarios for selected maritime economic functions. Eur J Futures Res 1, 11 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-013-0011-8
Forward looking activities


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text:
The agronomic performance and nutritional content of oat and barley varieties grown in a northern maritime environment depends on variety and growing conditions.
Andrew Chappell, Karen P. Scott, Irene A. Griffiths, Alexander A. Cowan, Cathy Hawes, John Wishart, Peter Martin
Agronomy Institute
Orkney College UHI
Warmer temperatures and increasing interest in high provenance food and drink products are creating new opportunities for cereal growing in northern Europe. Nevertheless, cultivation of oats and barley in these areas for malting and milling remains a challenge, primarily because of the weather, and there are few reports of their nutritional content from this region. In this study, trials in Orkney compared agronomic characteristics and nutritional content of recommended UK oat and barley varieties with Scandinavian varieties over three years. For a subset of varieties, nutritional content was compared with samples cultivated in more southerly sites. For Orkney, barley was considered a more suitable crop than oats because varieties matured earlier. In both crops, Scandinavian varieties matured earlier than UK varieties and some produced comparable yields. The range of values for macronutrients and minerals in oats and barley in Orkney were similar to those reported previously for other locations, but there were some significant differences attributable to variety and year. Compared with grain samples from more southerly locations, oats in Orkney had a significantly lower β-glucan and higher sodium content. The lower β-glucan may have resulted from higher rainfall and lower temperatures during the months of grain filling and maturation.
Journal of Cereal Science
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcs.2017.01.005
Nutritional content
Maritime environment
β-glucan
10.1016/j.jcs.2017.01.005Licence: CC BY-NC-ND
JCS_2017_oat_barley_AAM_
Crown Copyright © 2017 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0733521017300139Licence: CC BY-NC-ND
Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'The agronomic performance and nutritional content of oat and barley varieties grown in a northern maritime environment depends on variety and growing conditions.'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.
Avena Medicine & Life Sciences
Hordeum Medicine & Life Sciences
Glucans Chemical Compounds
Crops Chemical Compounds
agronomic traits Agriculture & Biology
oats Agriculture & Biology
barley Agriculture & Biology
Rain Chemical Compounds
Chappell, A., Scott, K. P., Griffiths, I. A., Cowan, A. A., Hawes, C., Wishart, J., & Martin, P. (2017). The agronomic performance and nutritional content of oat and barley varieties grown in a northern maritime environment depends on variety and growing conditions. Journal of Cereal Science, 74, 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcs.2017.01.005
Chappell, Andrew ; Scott, Karen P. ; Griffiths, Irene A. ; Cowan, Alexander A. ; Hawes, Cathy ; Wishart, John ; Martin, Peter. / The agronomic performance and nutritional content of oat and barley varieties grown in a northern maritime environment depends on variety and growing conditions. In: Journal of Cereal Science. 2017 ; Vol. 74. pp. 1-10.
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title = "The agronomic performance and nutritional content of oat and barley varieties grown in a northern maritime environment depends on variety and growing conditions.",
abstract = "Warmer temperatures and increasing interest in high provenance food and drink products are creating new opportunities for cereal growing in northern Europe. Nevertheless, cultivation of oats and barley in these areas for malting and milling remains a challenge, primarily because of the weather, and there are few reports of their nutritional content from this region. In this study, trials in Orkney compared agronomic characteristics and nutritional content of recommended UK oat and barley varieties with Scandinavian varieties over three years. For a subset of varieties, nutritional content was compared with samples cultivated in more southerly sites. For Orkney, barley was considered a more suitable crop than oats because varieties matured earlier. In both crops, Scandinavian varieties matured earlier than UK varieties and some produced comparable yields. The range of values for macronutrients and minerals in oats and barley in Orkney were similar to those reported previously for other locations, but there were some significant differences attributable to variety and year. Compared with grain samples from more southerly locations, oats in Orkney had a significantly lower β-glucan and higher sodium content. The lower β-glucan may have resulted from higher rainfall and lower temperatures during the months of grain filling and maturation.",
keywords = "Nutritional content, Maritime environment, β-glucan, Variety",
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note = "Crown Copyright {\textcopyright} 2017 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.",
doi = "10.1016/j.jcs.2017.01.005",
journal = "Journal of Cereal Science",
Chappell, A, Scott, KP, Griffiths, IA, Cowan, AA, Hawes, C, Wishart, J & Martin, P 2017, 'The agronomic performance and nutritional content of oat and barley varieties grown in a northern maritime environment depends on variety and growing conditions.', Journal of Cereal Science, vol. 74, pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcs.2017.01.005
The agronomic performance and nutritional content of oat and barley varieties grown in a northern maritime environment depends on variety and growing conditions. / Chappell, Andrew; Scott, Karen P.; Griffiths, Irene A.; Cowan, Alexander A.; Hawes, Cathy; Wishart, John; Martin, Peter.
In: Journal of Cereal Science, Vol. 74, 01.03.2017, p. 1-10.
T1 - The agronomic performance and nutritional content of oat and barley varieties grown in a northern maritime environment depends on variety and growing conditions.
AU - Chappell, Andrew
AU - Scott, Karen P.
AU - Griffiths, Irene A.
AU - Cowan, Alexander A.
AU - Hawes, Cathy
AU - Wishart, John
N1 - Crown Copyright © 2017 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
N2 - Warmer temperatures and increasing interest in high provenance food and drink products are creating new opportunities for cereal growing in northern Europe. Nevertheless, cultivation of oats and barley in these areas for malting and milling remains a challenge, primarily because of the weather, and there are few reports of their nutritional content from this region. In this study, trials in Orkney compared agronomic characteristics and nutritional content of recommended UK oat and barley varieties with Scandinavian varieties over three years. For a subset of varieties, nutritional content was compared with samples cultivated in more southerly sites. For Orkney, barley was considered a more suitable crop than oats because varieties matured earlier. In both crops, Scandinavian varieties matured earlier than UK varieties and some produced comparable yields. The range of values for macronutrients and minerals in oats and barley in Orkney were similar to those reported previously for other locations, but there were some significant differences attributable to variety and year. Compared with grain samples from more southerly locations, oats in Orkney had a significantly lower β-glucan and higher sodium content. The lower β-glucan may have resulted from higher rainfall and lower temperatures during the months of grain filling and maturation.
AB - Warmer temperatures and increasing interest in high provenance food and drink products are creating new opportunities for cereal growing in northern Europe. Nevertheless, cultivation of oats and barley in these areas for malting and milling remains a challenge, primarily because of the weather, and there are few reports of their nutritional content from this region. In this study, trials in Orkney compared agronomic characteristics and nutritional content of recommended UK oat and barley varieties with Scandinavian varieties over three years. For a subset of varieties, nutritional content was compared with samples cultivated in more southerly sites. For Orkney, barley was considered a more suitable crop than oats because varieties matured earlier. In both crops, Scandinavian varieties matured earlier than UK varieties and some produced comparable yields. The range of values for macronutrients and minerals in oats and barley in Orkney were similar to those reported previously for other locations, but there were some significant differences attributable to variety and year. Compared with grain samples from more southerly locations, oats in Orkney had a significantly lower β-glucan and higher sodium content. The lower β-glucan may have resulted from higher rainfall and lower temperatures during the months of grain filling and maturation.
KW - Nutritional content
KW - Maritime environment
KW - β-glucan
KW - Variety
U2 - 10.1016/j.jcs.2017.01.005
DO - 10.1016/j.jcs.2017.01.005
JO - Journal of Cereal Science
JF - Journal of Cereal Science
Chappell A, Scott KP, Griffiths IA, Cowan AA, Hawes C, Wishart J et al. The agronomic performance and nutritional content of oat and barley varieties grown in a northern maritime environment depends on variety and growing conditions. Journal of Cereal Science. 2017 Mar 1;74:1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcs.2017.01.005


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