text:
What are those "Movable Pipelines" that might hand us "a small fortune?"
by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | October 22, 2013 2:49 pm
Brett Owens teases this as "small Dallas oil stock is a screaming buy" for Contrarian Advantage
Want to know what those "Movable Pipelines" are that are being teased by the folks at Contrarian Profits? So did we … here's how they teased the idea in their recent ad:
"The $5.8 Billion Reason the U.S. Government May Never Approve Another Pipeline…
"So much American oil is flowing out of the ground there aren't enough pipelines to move it all. And the government takes years to approve more construction. Fed up, Big Oil is increasingly turning to a new, more lucrative way to ship oil. It's five times faster than a pipeline, it takes days, not years, to set up – and it doesn't need special approval.
"This breakthrough could make pipelines obsolete…
"And hand you a small fortune in the process."
Sounds good, right?
Now, they don't keep it a "deep, dark secret" forever — and you could probably figure out the "big picture" part yourself with no problem anyway, the "movable pipeline" is made up of rail cars.
This is something that's been teased a few times before, and the big driving force behind the increased use of rail cars in the transportation of crude oil is really North Dakota — a place with a fine rail infrastructure (thanks, agriculture!) but not much pipeline capacity to take up all those millions of barrels flowing out of the Bakken Shale.
And it's also a big part of the reason why Warren Buffett's 2009 purchase of the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad, a seemingly risky and rare deal Berkshire Hathaway made to buy a public company at a premium price, turned out to be so brilliant — BNSF is transporting a lot of that oil, and it so happens that Berkshire also (separately) bought one of the major builders of tanker railcars which are, not surprisingly, also in very high demand (that's Union Tank Car, part of the Marmon group of companies that Buffett bought control of in 2008).
So the stories have flowed about these railcar companies and railroads several times in the Gumshoe teaser Universe over the last couple years — but it's been a few months since we saw one of these pitched, so it seemed a good time to have a look. Last time we hit this topic, if memory serves, was back in January when John Mauldin was launching his Yield Shark newsletter with a pitch for "Fiscal Cliff Winners" — remember when we thought the Fiscal Cliff was the worst thing that could happen? Ah, those were the days … Mauldin at the time was teasing American Railcar Industries (ARII)[1], by the way, which had a nice run early in the year from $30 ($35 when Mauldin pitched it[2]) to $45 or so and is now back at $40.
What's the stock being pitched this time by Brett Owens? He's selling his Contrarian Advantage newsletter, which I think is a new "entry level" letter from Contrarian Profits (they've changed their name so many times it's a bit hard to keep track), and here's how he teases the pick:
"You've might've heard about the Keystone XL pipeline… the paperwork still sits on President Obama's desk.
"He says he'll make a decision by the end of the year, but even then, it will take another two years to build.
"The lost time could mean billions in missed oil revenue.
"It doesn't matter anymore.
"North Dakota no longer needs the pipeline….
"Enbridge's $2.5 billion Sandpiper pipeline, designed to move more crude out of the Bakken, has met with difficulties.
"One potential customer told the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission that Sandpiper's capacity 'was not necessary in view of… pipeline alternatives.'
"Kinder Morgan, a major player in the pipeline business, already canceled a $2 billion project to build a pipeline from West Texas to California….
"The shocking truth is the U.S. government may never have to approve another pipeline again.
"That's because pipelines are rapidly becoming obsolete. They're no longer the most effective way to move oil across the U.S."
So that's the basic pitch for the "Movable Pipelines," which are, of course, railways — and here's a bit more in case you're not hyped up enough about the opportunity:
"In just under two years, the amount of North Dakota oil traveling by "moveable pipeline" has increased tenfold.
"These days, nearly 75% of the oil produced in North Dakota leaves the state by "moveable pipeline."
"That's more than 800,000 barrels per day…
"More than the Keystone XL pipeline was designed to carry.
"Thanks in part to 'moveable pipelines,' North Dakota just passed Alaska to become the second-largest oil-producing state in the U.S.
"Texas remains No. 1, and it's started to take full advantage of 'moveable pipeline' technology as well.
"That's why a number of Texas pipeline projects have been canceled or delayed – the oil meant for these pipelines is already being shipped by 'moveable pipeline.'"
And there's more that I won't force you to read your way through — chatter about how pipelines are not only difficult to build and inflexible but also old and leaky and hard to monitor.
All of this has clearly been a boon for the railroad companies, which as of the mid-2000s were, in most cases, quite dependent on coal shipments for a large part of their revenue. And Owens goes on to mention that Warren Buffett connection as well (when in doubt, mention how your idea is similar to Warren Buffett's idea — that never, ever hurts in the investment newsletter world), and then finally gets around to teasing his specific idea:
"Right now, you have a chance to buy while they're still cheap…
"There's one company I'm particularly excited about.
"See, the companies that supply 'moveable pipelines' already have a 2.5-year backlog.
"One small Dallas supplier, in particular, is booming.
"In fact, some estimates say it has $5.1 billion in revenue already booked for the next two years.
"But its price-to-earnings ratio is barely 12 – phenomenally low for a company with that much cash and a cheap share price.
"So far, it's attracted the attention of only the most dedicated market watchers.
"I believe that will change before the end of the year.
"The amazing story of this company's future earnings will reach the general market. And that could send the stock skyrocketing.
"I'm talking about potentially doubling your money before the end of the year."
OK … so, hoodat?
Well, even before I got around to reading this ad or listening to the "presentation" an alert reader sent in his suggested answer for us, so we're going to go democratic here and share this in his words — his name is Bruce, in case you're curious, and this is what he said:
"I'm about 99% certain that the company being teased is Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN).
"Owens provides a song and dance about 'Moveable Pipelines' for shipping petroleum products from remote areas (like the Bakken oil field) to places like the East Coast (like the Washington-Boston metroplex). Of course, the Moveable Pipelines are trains. He goes on to explain that Bakken oil is a major reason why Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. bought the BNSF railroad. That purchase was not just about Bakken oil, but low-sulfur coal from Wyoming, being shipped to midwest and eastern electric utilities.
"Owens doesn't advocate buying stock in a railroad (Warren Buffett beat us to that punch, buying all of the most relevant major railroad). Owens suggests buying the company that builds railroad cars. The clues just scream Trinity Industries, Inc (TRN). P/E of 12 (As of this morning it's 12.22). Headquartered in Dallas (Yup). Small[ish] (Market cap of $3.6B). Yes, TRN pays a dividend (1.3%). And the share price for TRN is up 30% YTD. My wife and I hold shares of TRN. We'll probably maintain that position for a while. And Union Pacific Corp (UNP), the closest thing to a competitor to Buffett's BNSP railroad."
And Bruce is right, this is Trinity — which is not a "pure play" on railcars or tanker cars. American Railcar (ARII) is a bit more dependent on tanker cars, as is their former takeover target Greenbrier (GBX), but Trinity Industries does get more than half of their revenue from rail businesses (railcar manufacturing, with tanker cars being the biggest demand driver now, as well as component and coupling manufacturing and management and leasing of railcars). They also build barges, windmill towers, and other steel stuff for construction customers (like guardrails for highways). You can see their latest investor presentation here if you're curious.[3]
Train transport is not cheaper than pipelines on an operating basis, for sure, and you can argue whether it's safer given the aging pipeline system and the leaks that crop up now and then weighed against the occasional railroad accidents which, when they involve hundreds of tanker cars filled with flammable fuel, can cause serious damage (like the recent accidents in Alberta a few days ago[4] and in Quebec earlier in the Summer[5]). I expect we'll continue to see more and more oil and perhaps even LNG shipment by rail, given the difficulty in getting pipeline capacity to where it needs to be with shifting production and consumption centers, but it's by no means a "gimme" that trains are safer or more sustainable as an option than pipelines — and there could be backlashes following these types of accidents that make the transport more difficult or slower or less profitable in some way. I've seen industry estimates that train transport is about three times more expensive than pipelines, and about three times more dangerous (in terms of spill potential and/or lives lost), but these days pretty much all the press flacks are focused on singleminded pitches for or against the Keystone XL pipeline, so most likely both sides are exaggerating.
The easy choices for an investment play on "movable pipelines" that I'm aware of are Trinity (TRN), American Railcar (ARII), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), and Greenbrier (GBX), and there may be others that I'm unaware of. ARII is controlled by Carl Icahn, and tried last year to take over Greenbrier to build a larger industry player but was rebuffed. All are reasonably valued, I'd argue, and I don't know the ins and outs of them well enough to tell you that TRN is better than ARII or vice versa, though ARII looks on the surface like it's a bit cheaper and I'm cheered by their much lower debt level. I've personally been happy holding Berkshire Hathaway for my exposure to this particular business (Burlington Northern and the other railroad investments like Union Tank Car could easily be considered to make up roughly 25-30% of Berkshire Hathaway's value now, in my estimation), I last added to my Berkshire Hathaway holdings at about $111 last month.
All of the direct plays on railcar manufacturing are trading at pretty low valuations mostly in the 10-12 PE neighborhood, arguably because there's concern about a glut or about this "gravy train" of demand for tanker cars ebbing in the years to come — I don't know if demand will slow down in the future, but Trinity did indeed report having a $5.1 billion backlog as of their last quarter and that's almost a year and a half of revenue for them at the current run rate, and they raised their guidance last time they reported, which tells me that railcar demand has not started to wither just yet.
So if you like TRN like Contrarian Advantage (and like our reader Bruce), or ARII like Carl Icahn, or something else in this neighborhood, let us know with a comment below.
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Mauldin at the time was teasing American Railcar Industries (ARII): http://stockgumshoe.com/reviews/yield-shark/fiscal-cliff-winner-from-the-yield-shark/
Mauldin pitched it: http://stockgumshoe.com/reviews/yield-shark/fiscal-cliff-winner-from-the-yield-shark/
see their latest investor presentation here if you're curious.: http://www.trin.net/TrinNetSelfServiceweb/Content/Aspx/DisplayFile.aspx?ContentId=240
Alberta a few days ago: http://rt.com/news/canada-train-derail-explode-431/
in Quebec earlier in the Summer: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/07/07/quebec-train-derailment-deaths-explosions/2496811/
You and I can each earn a free share of stock right now if you open an account!: https://join.robinhood.com/travisj369
Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/contrarian-advantage/what-are-those-movable-pipelines-that-might-hand-us-a-small-fortune/
Oct 22 2013, 03:26:25 pm
TRN has not been close to 12.22 for over a year according to my charts…
I think or believe he is talking about the PE, not stock price.
Slick Rick
TRN 5YR Chart shows steady growth. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TRN+Interactive#symbol=trn;range=5y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
Roger Waldman
Oct 24 2013, 01:23:26 am
You're correct about the comment on the PE which is around 12 the stock price is 46.
What about Canadien National Railway (CNI)? Anaybidy have any thoughts?
Dec 5 2013, 08:32:54 pm
You're better off buying Canadian gold mining companies like Yamana Gold. Currently $8 a share. For a minor miner, buy Timmins Gold currently at $1 per share.
Deborah G Flynn
Dec 19 2013, 07:50:24 am
I owned CNI for a long time then sorry I sold it. The oler idea that railroads are the way to go seemed ancient to me now I'm not so sure. With OBAMA hating Keystone we have 4 years to see how the Railroad play turns ot. He is a joke when it comes to the real world of oil and gas being a left wing ideolog bent on having dead eagles all over the place from the wind turbines but that being said. I am so in a flux about the transportaton part of my portfolio. Maybe I'll just do what Travis did and buy Birkshire Hathaway and let a real businessman decide what will be profitable. Because I am a real American that actually LIKES profit and thinks its good to be independant I find that with this current adminsitratoion a real downer on anything related to capitalism. WI don't usually get political with investing but there is a real hatred for anything to do with business in this WH > He has in my opinion made it difficult to invest without the worry of what the government will do to investors next. It's not enough we have to worry about the markets, we have to worry what he is going to do to us or say on a daily basis that COULD tank them
operating costs for rail may be higher for rail but the capital costs for pipelines are huge. Don't just count the cost of laying the pipeline which is billions, the shippers have to commit to contributing their portion of the fill. That's right to reserve capacity on a new pipeline you have to contribute a proportionate share of oil. Enbridge's Alberta Clipper pipeline took 6 million barrels to fill before any oil emerged out the end. That fill represented another 2/3rds of a Billion dollars in capital that the oil companies using the pipeline had to tie up for as long as they use the pipeline.
In addition for the Keystone to ship DilBit, the industry name for the Oil Sands crude (Diluted Bitumen) they have to add 30% diluent (mostly condensates from wet gas) to get the gooey tar sand oil to flow. Once the DilBit makes it to the refinery the diluent is extracted and has to be shipped back to the head end of the pipeline to be reused. So my 800,000 Bbl/day pipeline now only really carries 560,000 Bbl/day of crude and I have to backhaul 240,000 Bbl/day of diluent. So my operating cost is not so easy to compare anymore. My rough calculation is an operating cost of $7.40 per barrel of actual crude coming out the end of the Keystone (loading in the overhead of shipping the diluent and backhauling the diluent) compared to unit train costs that are in the neighborhood of $8.75+ per barrel (with no diluent). With much much lower capital costs. And I can buy a lot of heated rail cars just for the cost of my fill contribution. The Keystone is not economical compared to rail and anyone building heated rail cars is going to have a very good couple of years.
Bruce Bardes
CJ asked about Canadian National Railway (Stock ticker CNI; railroad reporting marks CN). My wife and I did own a few shares of CNI, but we closed that position a few months ago — CNI was making money for us, but we thought we could find a more promising home for that money. I'm still following CNI stock, And I still like CNI. CN serves Canada from the Atlantic to the Pacific, and it also connects Canada to the Gulf of Mexico through subsidiaries in USA.
In terms of the location of their main east-west railroad lines west of Winnipeg, CNI is further north than the Canadian Pacific (Stock ticker and reporting marks CP). That gives CNI a geographic advantage for petroleum found in northern Alberta and northeastern British Columbia. On the other hand, CP has a geographic advantage for petroleum found in the Canadian portion of the Bakken oil field. I have been following CP for several years, but according to some of the other criteria I use for purchases and sales, CP doesn't measure up to CNI. We've never owned CP stock.
Bought TRN in July when it was down around $34.00. Everytime I drive from Dallas to Houston, I would see their railcars all over the place going through Ferris. Got curious enough to study up on them. Have been pleased so far. Hope this guy is right about them going up more.
Carbon Bigfoot
I wonder if Berkshire-Hathaway greased the O'Bummer Adm. to delay the Keystone.
Naa this is the most transparent Administration ever–O'Bummer said so-it must be True.
I believe Buffet is a grease monkey. That visit and talk were not about budget talks and the GOP.
frank archambeau
Agree that Buffet is Obama sycophant with good reason $$$$$billions of reasons.
James Blessing
seems that the "floating pipeline" is more of the same –
Movable pipelines and floating pipelines obviously mean railroads and barge lines.
I agree that TRN is one stock being touted but which barge lines could be involved..
Would need connection to Bakken Or Alberta in some way. Mississippi line from KC
to New Orleans could fill bill for transport to Louisiana ,Gulf refineries. Any thoughts?
Water transport least cost going per ton/mile
By the way… Gunderson part of Greenbrier group is fairly small but growing & is based in
Oregon for Columbia river system & west coast transport. California is finding huge oil
fields if they can be developed under current political climate.
Nothing GOOD will come from this adminsitration regarding oil because OBAMA sees oil as CAPITALISM and the hated Texas oil crowd that mocks him at every turn.
Afterthought Gunderson builds both rail tankers & barges; Greenbrier group.
jim leavenworth
Anybody have any ideas about the"floating pipeline" aka LNG tanker routes from Australia to China and Japan? Specifically who owns the ships and who supplies the gas.
no idea but post the link to the info so that the great Gumshoe can solve the mystery
http://www.investingdaily.com/plp/41832/AE-game.html?campaigncode=WB2198
TRN stock is trading at 461/2 close to its 52 week high. Above that would be a breakout.
Great post guys. I listened to the promo video by Owens. He also banged on about a little known enrgy source that he says is set to soar too. Any one have any ideas which energy he is talking about? He said it wasn't coal, wind, solar, gas or oil.
Only really leaves hydrogen or unranium as far as I know.
Duane Hussey
I saw post on a new Pure Hydrogen play, Amazonica Corp AMZZ, that identified a newly acquired refinement process. Was hoping it might make a worthy discussion.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AMZZ
The Ichthys Project is operated by
INPEX
in joint
venture with major participant
and Tokyo
Gas, Osaka Gas, Chubu Electric and Toho Gas
Australia Pacific LNG and Ichthys LNG projects in Australia, the officials said.
Kansai Electric has a 20-year supply agreement to import 1 million mt/year of coalbed methane-based LNG from the APLNG project from 2016, and it has a 15-year contract to buy 800,000 mt/year of LNG from 2017 from the Ichthys project, both on a FOB basis.
In September 2008, Kansai Electric gained the 145,000 cu m LNG Ebisu, which is also jointly owned with MOL, as its first LNG tanker dedicated mainly to its Pluto LNG supplies.
Kansai Electric has a 15-year term contract to import 1.75 million-2 million mt/year of Pluto LNG, mainly on a FOB basis, including partial supplies on an ex-ship basis.
Source: Platts
The Project brings together a joint venture between three industry leaders in the fields of coal seam gas and liquefied natural gas production –
Origin (37.5%), ConocoPhillips (37.5%) and Sinopec (25%).
Ed Johnston
I'm curious out your increase of $111 Berkshire Hathaway holding.
Not sure what you mean — that was the last time I added shares to my holdings, though I've owned the stock for many any years and think it's still quite reasonably priced today. Not a no-brainier bargain like when the B shares (those are the ones I own) were in the $60s a few years ago, but certainly reasonable.
In the article you wrote, "…I last added to my Berkshire Hathaway holdings at about $111 last month."
Yes, that's in there and true.
I just sat through listening to Frank Curzio tell me about 43 small stocks that could earn up to 30% dividend, and he would like me pay $39 for the top three companies, any idea's as to who they are?
ray blanco is teasing a scientific process called cellular oil. I want to find out what gumshoe thinks about it.
Dave Shisler
Dec 5 2013, 11:42:29 am
Hey everyone! I'm "new to the shoe" and love it all so my here's my first 2 cents worth,
If your really interested in floating and movable or fixed pipeline plays, just invest and hold long term a power player like Quanta (PWR). I like there 3 year chart and there short term stuff too. I simply ask myself where do you think oil, LNG, shipping through the Panama Canal, etc. will be in three years? I bought in at the recent dip and have been up ever since.
Thoughts? Comments?
AU2U! ( or for you southerners AU 2 Y'all! )
Starting to see the "overcapacity" chatter more about these tank cars now, there have been some downgrades, here's one from Raymond James, reported in Barron's:
"Risks outweigh the rewards in American Railcar (ticker: ARII), Trinity (TRN) and Greenbrier (GBX) at current valuation levels, in our opinion, with peak earnings this cycle likely either in 2014 or 2015 for most of the manufacturers. Top-line growth, margin expansion and earnings growth are all likely to be pressured as the tank cycle plateaus and nontank demand (which carries lower average selling prices and lower margins) picks up (we've already seen over the last couple of quarters). We expect the tank cycle to plateau as crude-by-rail demand eases (with an overbuild likely at some point) and more conventional tank-car demand picks back up."
Full note here: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904253404579211991387977638.html
One more reason I'm happiest letting Warren Buffett be my railroad and tank car guy, though the stocks still aren't necessarily expensive.
D. McCullam
Beware of environmental issues as railcars area target of opportunity. In the PNW the tank cars have been routed adjacent to the Puget Sound on tracks that recently allowed a freight train to slide off the tracks and almost into the drink. A car carrying liquids would have been much more fluid.
Kimberly Kha
This is a comment posted for BF on the way the figure of 8.75$ per barrel of crude oil transported via rail car. Does that figure include return freight cost for the rail car back to the origin of the oil source? If not it might understate the cost there of. Thank you for your clarification.
Dec 11 2013, 02:00:23 pm
in reference to my Oct 22 comment – yes it could be barges for oil – but i was referencing to the activity happening in the ocean about a 300 miles north of Australia – a drill ship that has a gas well under it and can convert the gas to LNG on board, off load it to LNG carriers and ship it to Japan etc. – its the "floating pipeline" – the hull for the LNG conversion ship (some 1,600 ft. long) has been launched in South Korea Samsung shipyard – the ship called a FLNG is a joint venture led by Shell with INPEX and KOGAS – this has been in the news for sometime and looks interesting ????
perhaps buy RDS-A for a safe bet? Yields are nice and a good company, your thoughts?
JohnB
Apr 3 2014, 03:43:01 pm
Keystone will not be approved until Buffett tells Obama to. Remember how Buffet told the world he shouldn't pay less taxes than his secretary on behalf of Obamas campaign and that the rich should pay more taxes. Buffet then bought his railroad and has made his fortune. Would one say 'Quid Pro Quo'?
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text:
Globalisation Unbound: Transnational Flows in the Digital Era
By Dominic Eggel and Marc Galvin Research Office The Graduate Institute, Geneva
The Changing Paradigm of Trade in the 21st Century
By Richard Baldwin, Professor of International Economics and Codirector of the Centre of Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute, Geneva and Davide Rigo, PhD Candidate and Teaching Assistant in International Economics, and Research Assistant at the Centre of Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute, Geneva
Energy Trading: An Uncertain Horizon
By Giacomo Luciani Adjunct Professor, Interdisciplinary Programmes, and Codirector, Executive Master in International Oil and Gas Leadership, The Graduate Institue, Geneva
Flowing with Data: Digital Humanitarianism Today
By Bertrand Taithe Visiting Professor, Department of International History, The Graduate Institute, Geneva. Professor of Cultural History, University of Manchester
International Migration: A Canary in the Coalmine of Globalisation
By Khalid Koser, Executive Director of the Global Community Engagement and Resilience Fund; Associate Fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Public Policy in the Spiral of Universalising Education Standards
By Gita Steiner-Khamsi Professor, The Graduate Institute, Geneva, and Columbia University; Director of NORRAG
The Global Threat of Epidemics One Century after the Spanish Influenza
By Suerie Moon MPA, PhD, Director of Research at the Global Health Centre and Visiting Lecturer; Adjunct Lecturer at the Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Photo Anouck Carsignol
Issue no. 3 | March 2018
Globalization 4.0: Evolution or Revolution?
What is Globalisation?
Map: The expanding network of global flows
Timeline: The history of globalisation
Globalization 4.0 | Introduction
Has globalisation reached its apex after centuries of expansion? Are we currently entering a phase of de-growth or de-globalisation? The present contribution argues the contrary by adopting a long term perspective and reviewing the profound transformations globalisation is currently undergoing in the wake of the digital revolution.
Globalisation is an old wooden ship, perhaps a frigate, that has been with us since the first trading systems in the Indian Ocean, the Silk Road, and the Age of Chinese and European explorations. Until 1800, global figures for international trade remained relatively low and eventually plateaued. This changed dramatically with a first wave of exponential densification of global flows in the era of high imperialism – which saw steam and steel diminishing transaction costs (steamship; railroad) and augmenting European firepower (gunboat; machine gun).
The second wave of globalisation in the wake of World War II (1945-1970) was based mostly on intra-industry trade (i.e. the exchange of broadly similar goods and services) and driven by spectacular improvements to productivity (mass production), transportation (aviation, merchant marine) and communication (telephone, satellites).
A third wave of globalisation, from the mid-eighties onwards, was fueled by the opening of economies after the end of the Cold War, the dramatic rise of multinational corporations, and the unbundling of production through the proliferation of global value chains and offshoring. In the early 2000s, globalisation had reached unprecedented levels with one third of all goods being traded internationally and more than one-third of financial investments being cross border.
However, since the financial crisis of 2007 globalisation seems to be in jeopardy. In a context of geo-political and economic uncertainty multilateralism is on the retreat as isolationism, protectionism and bilateralism gain traction. Realpolitik is in fashion as demagogues worldwide are flexing their muscles. Trump's America First policy has led the United States to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and call into question NAFTA.
While they were popular in their day, the striking posters by Parker-Holladay fell from favour following the Wall Street Crash and the ensuing Great Depression of 1929.
No Copyright - Public Domain
An increasingly conflictual and multipolar global economy foreshadows a fragmented yet connected world. Financial investments have levelled after the seism of 2007, climate issues and depleting resources cast a dark shadow on global growth, and trade has been slowing. The WTO is in crisis with the Doha Round stalling and the free trade consensus eroding. Recent data suggests that global GDP growth has halved from 6% in the 1960s to 3% in 2015 and that trade intensity (the trade-GDP ratio), perhaps the most reliable measure of globalization, has been stagnating.
Even pundits of the WEF now concede, from the tips of their lips, that globalisation entails losers and inequality. The crisis of 2007 has unleashed a hefty popular backlash and antiglobalisation critics – once a voiceful minority – have now become mainstream. Commentators have thus been conjecturing that globalisation has reached its apex, was coming to a halt, or was ushering into the reverse path of "deglobalisation". However, they may prove wrong.An increasingly conflictual and multipolar global economy foreshadows a fragmented yet connected world
First, this is neither the first time globalisation has slowed nor that its end has been prophesized. Globalisation has been progressing in waves and punctuated by ebbs and flows. The first wave of globalisation came to a sudden halt with the start of World War I in 1914 while the second wave driven by the post-World War II boom was disrupted by the 1973 Oil Crisis.
Second, each time globalisation was on the ropes it managed to return stronger, boosted by the emergence of new technologies such as mass manufacturing or new communication devices.
Third, despite new tariffs, walls and populist rhetoric, globalisation continues to be driven by a myriad of technological innovations such as the generalisation of the optic fiber or liquid natural gas; geo-biological alterations such as climate change generating new trading routes in the Arctic or refugee flows in the South; manmade investments such as financial remittances and new megaprojects such as the Chinese Road Belt or the Panama Canal extension.
Fourth, the continuous growth of the middle class in emerging countries is spurring global demand as, in a process of great convergence, geo-economics sees trade's gravity relocating to Asia. South-South trade has also been soaring to become the fastest segment of world trade with developing economies now accounting for 24% of total goods trade in 2014 global flows.
Hence calling the death knell of globalisation seems precipitate. The number of international travellers annually rose from 659 million in 2002 to over a billion in 2013, cross-border used bandwidth has increased 45-fold since 2005 and the number of internet users now exceeds 3 billion.
THe digital revolution and Globalisation 4.0
iAmMrRob - CC0 Creative Commons
Globalisation as we know it is undergoing a profound mutation. Driven by the digital revolution, artificial intelligence and the ubiquitousness of ITC, Globalisation 4.0 is comprehensively reshaping the composition and direction of transnational flows. Digital technology is reducing costs of production, access to, and distribution of goods and services. Tools such as 3D printing, translation software or file sharing allow for remote work and the outsourcing of activities such as medical analysis, programming, or designing. Advanced robotics and digital factory management make production chains more agile and easier to control. New digital ecosystems, microwork and microsupply chains allow individuals and smaller firms to access the global market.
Together with declining wage differentials this will lead to a major reshuffling of cards and radically new ways of tying the global with the local. Firms in advanced economies are starting to "reshore" parts of their manufacturing closer to their costumers, reducing, by the same token, risks related to long-distance trading and remote production sites.
The digital revolution will boost trade in global services such as microfinance- and assurance, tourism, information technology, entertainment and consulting, with powerful repercussions for workers in more advanced economies. Finally, the spectacular success of digital retail platforms such as Alibaba, Amazon or Airbnb allows a host of small businesses and producers to sell their products globally – e-commerce now accounts for 12% of global trade in goods.
Globalisation 4.0 is not without raising its own set of issues. Will advanced economies, who are driving the digital revolution and controlling most of the data flows, benefit more than proportionally? Will China, the biggest winner of the previous phase of globalisation, take on leadership and will it prove sustainable? Will new regional asymmetries, nodes and centers appear and will global inequalities continue to rise? How will the tension between increased political fragmentation and continued technological convergence ultimately play out? What is the likely impact of digitalisation on the redistribution of power between states, non-state actors and multinationals? How will the multilateral framework adapt as digital flows remain largely unregulated?
The precise contours of Globalisation 4.0 have yet to be defined, for we are in its early stages and a lot remains, literally, shrouded in the cloud. To better understand this turn in the global economy and answer some of the questions outlined above the present dossier reviews six major global flows (commodities and services, energy, data, people, ideas, and viruses) by contextualizing them in the longue durée and offering outlooks on future trends. Globalisation is now a next generation container ship with digital equipment and it is bound to stay with us for the foreseeable future.
21st-century globalisation involves revolutionary technologies and cross-country flows of goods, knowhow, investment, training, ideas and people that are reshaping the international order. Understanding its evolution and trends is important to anticipate implications for economies and workers as explained by Richard Baldwin and Davide Rigo.
Energy commodities constitute an important component of international trade. If sufficient international consensus is found to pursue environmental policies that are global and incisive, we may witness a decline in trading of fossil fuels and possibly an increase in internationally traded electricity. By Giacomo Luciani.
Access to large amounts of data bears unprecedented potential but also raises political, ethical and societal issues of a global magnitude. It is a matter of volume but also of diversity, access, transparency and control. Illustration with the role of data in humanitarian affairs by Bertrand Taithe.
The flow of people moving daily across borders is constantly increasing. However, for certain categories of people (refugees, economic migrants) mobility is being made more arduous. What are the new patterns of global migration both in absolute terms as well as in respect to climate, conflict and poverty related migration? By Khalid Koser.
The increased circulation and globalization of cultural artefacts, lifestyles, beliefs and consumption patterns increasingly clashes with a growing demand for the affirmation of local, regional and/or national identities. The development of educational patterns are no exception as explained by Gita Steiner-Khamsi.
A century after the Spanish influenza pandemic, outbreaks of infectious disease remain a major threat. How ready are we to address this challenge today? By Suerie Moon.
By Dominic Eggel and Marc Galvin
The essence of globalization has been defined by Kevin Rudd, former Prime Minister of
Australia (2007–2010), as "the contraction of time and space in international transactions through the platform of new technologies". Globalization depends on (infra-)structure (roads, trains, shipping, flight routes, cables, ports), geo-climatic factors (global warming), technological innovations (digitalization; green energy, logistics, ITC) and, last but not least, a framework transnational norms. It rests on the twin logic of the acceleration and increase of the volume of exchanges of goods, capital, services, people and ideas, as well as the steady densification of geographic connectedness.
Academic definition
Roland Robertson, professor of sociology at University of Aberdeen, defines globalization as: "the compression of the world and the intensification of the consciousness of the world as a whole."
Sociologists Martin Albrow and Elizabeth King define globalization as: "all those processes by which the peoples of the world are incorporated into a single world society."
In The Consequences of Modernity, Anthony Giddens defines globalisation as: "the intensification of worldwide social relations which link distant localities in such a way that local happenings are shaped by events occurring many miles away and vice versa"
The International Monetary Fund
The IMF identifies four basic aspects of globalization: trade and transactions, capital and investment movements, migration and movement of people and the dissemination of knowledge. Further, environmental challenges such as climate change, cross-boundary water, air pollution, and over-fishing of the ocean are linked with globalization. Globalizing processes affect and are affected by business and work organization, economics, socio-cultural resources, and the natural environment.
Controversial views
Proponents of globalization argue that it allows poor countries and their citizens to develop economically and raise their standards of living, while opponents of globalization claim that the creation of an unfettered international free market has benefited multinational corporations in the Western world at the expense of local enterprises, local cultures, and common people. Resistance to globalization has therefore taken shape both at a popular and at a governmental level as people and governments try to manage the flow of capital, labor, goods, and ideas that constitute the current wave of globalization.
The Expanding Network of Global Flows
% of global GDP — 100% = $1.8 trillion; 1% = 18 billion
Source: McKinsey Global Institute

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


"Wheel Estate will help us pay off our trailer faster"
Jeff's wife Marti, first saw a story about Wheel Estate on CTV News in Calgary about two years ago. When she shared it with Jeff, there were two big things that mattered to him – the fact that Wheel Estate took care of the bookings through the website and that insurance coverage and roadside assistance was included. "These things provided assurance that my trailer was safe," Jeff explained.
If you'd like to book Jeff's trailer, you can do so here.


Frizz can be a problem all year round, we at The Amazing Blog have been searching for an anti-frizz treatment that is able to combat frizz for the whole day. We were excited to discover Alterna's Bamboo smooth AM and PM treatment as we were amazed that it claimed to last 72 hours.
The Bamboo collection from Alterna is aimed at creating strong, healthy hair, with all types of products for all types of hair; from volumising sprays, beach balms and treatment oils. The AM/PM anti-smoothing treatments work together to help hair resist frizz and humidity. Firstly the Pm is used before bedtime; the cream is pillow-safe and can work its' magic whilst you get your beauty sleep. We found the best way to apply is to place a small amount into your palms and rub both hands together. We then applied the cream using a combing method, like brushing your hair with your fingers- this allows it to spread evenly all over with ease. In the morning a simple shampoo wash will rinse it out ready for stage two. The AM cream can be used once hair is towel dried, using the same method as applying the PM treatment, however make sure to use slightly less or there's a chance your hair will go greasy. Once applied, hair can be blow-dried and flat ironed straight. This style lasts 3 days and hair is noticeably smooth, shiny and soft.
Tame the hair frizz with Alterna's AM/PM smoothing treatment creams, available here for £ 35.95.


Hillary Clinton has been declared the winner of the Nevada Democratic Caucus though the margin of her victory is not yet known. As of the time of writing, with 79% precincts reporting, she's leading Bernie Sanders by about 52% to 47%. Based on returns so far, the race has been called in her favor.
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton appears to have won Nevada's caucuses.
The Associated Press called the Nevada race for Clinton around 2:15 p.m., and Reuters reported that Fox News did the same, according to Reuters.
Clinton was beating Bernie Sanders 52 percent to 48 percent with 66 percent of the state's precincts reporting as of about 2:15 p.m., AP reported.
Turnout was heavy at the party's caucuses in Southern Nevada. Reports from the presidential voting locations showed long lines and big crowds late morning and early afternoon.
Review-Journal writers Tweeted that some people who showed up were not allowed to participate and that at some sites, the doors were closed and people were left standing outside.
They also reported that people were getting testy, and that at least one site was running out of registration forms.
The Becker Middle School caucus was running more than a half-hour late. A party official expected it to begin after 12:30 p.m., noting that officials didn't anticipate so much turnout.
At stake is Nevada's pick for president.
There are about 250 caucus sites throughout the Silver State.
Just weeks ago, polls showed Clinton with a 20 point lead over Sanders. If the end result comes down to less than a few percent difference, it speaks to the inroads Sanders has made since his New Hampshire victory. From here, the race heads to South Carolina next Saturday, February 27.
More to come including candidate speeches.
Will update again with Bernie Sanders when he addresses his supporters.
If one believes in democracy, then we should consider that Sen. Sanders has a wide lead when you count the actual votes made by actual Democratic voters so far.
Hillary will NEVER be US president — even when the liberally politicized FBI fails in their duty to arrest her!
She won we knew the vote resuts would be close . I f Sanders looses big in S. Carolina…It probaby over for him. I believe she is a head counting super deligates….and they do count in the democrat party. Sanders would do more damage running as an indepented socialist..


text:
Kaizen case study toyota
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The conflict between the individual and society essay
The main champion of this approach was Max Weber social action theoristwho said that society is built up out of the interpretations of individuals. Colleges in the USA during this period of time were mostly controlled by churches and devoted to teaching undergraduate students.
Utilitarianism comes in various forms. These views are continually discussed among both feminist and Rousseau scholars.
Aestheticism, argues Wilde, too often aligns itself with immorality, resulting in a precarious philosophy that must be practiced deliberately. I have written a separate essay, Academic Abstentionthat quotes from many judicial opinions and law review articles, as well as explains the mysterious origins of the doctrine of academic abstention.
They have reason, although in the state of nature it is not yet developed. This is to cast the primary goods as items objectively needed by moral persons occupying the role of free and equal citizens.
His most telling argument against the utilitarian position is that it conflates the system of desires of all individuals and arrives at the good for a society by treating it as one large individual choice.
Lord Henry warns that without an enthusiastic embrace of aestheticism, one will perpetually anguish with the desire of precisely what he must deny himself, all for the sake of propriety.
Gutmann, Amy and Dennis Thompson. Second, to make his exposition a little simpler, Rawls makes some technical assumptions that let him focus only on the expectations of the least-well-off representative class in a given society.
This is the kind of case where deliberate obstreperousness can make a difference, as a form of consciousness-raising. This attempt is what makes PL so rich, difficult, and interesting. He added that, the structure of society which determines roles and norms, and the cultural system which determines the ultimate values of ends.
The work was widely read and was controversial. And finally, his philosophy was largely instrumental in the late eighteenth century Romantic Naturalism movement in Europe thanks in large part to Julie or the New Heloise and the Reveries of the Solitary Walker.
Human nature develops in man only when he lives in society, only when he shares with his fellow begins a common life. InRousseau was apprenticed to an engraver and began to learn the trade.
And you want voters show up every time, and who know which candidates are really fighting for the people vs. What is unfortunate is the expansion of control beyond this by a broadening of the conception of sexual harrassment to include all forms of unwelcome or objectionable sexual attention, and the increasingly vigilant enforcement of expressive taboos.
One might well ask how it is that we can remain on good terms with others when we know that behind their polite exteriors they harbor feelings and opinions which we would find unacceptable if they were expressed publicly. Admittedly nonacknowledgment can sometimes also serve the purpose of deceiving those, like children or outsiders, who do not know the conventions.
That is to say, real art takes no part in molding the social or moral identities of society, nor should it.
Thus, to conclude, it can be stated that the relationship between society and individual is not one-sided. At the same party C and D meet. Perhaps defending political liberalism as the most reasonable political conception is to defend it as true; but, again, Rawls neither asserts nor denies that this is so.
But sex and extreme emotion are different. Supreme Court cases on freedom of speech in schools, as not obviously applicable to a university environment.
There's a lot of years to consider. Rather, pluralism has been endemic among the liberal democracies since the 16th century wars of religion. So, for your own sake, submit all written work typed rather than handwritten. See CP essays 13, 16, The First Amendment requires that we protect some falsehood in order to protect speech that matters.
References and Further Reading 1. A very wide scope is given to the natural development of the energies of the individual in such a manner that in the end.
As in other areas of life, more management and control means less freedom.
These social relationships are not evident, they do not have any concrete from, and hence society is abstract. This changing system, we call society and it is always changing [1].hot controversial religious topics.
Instead, we try to explain all viewpoints fairly, accurately, completely, and with balance. As a result, you are certain to find material in this section and throughout the rest of this web site that agrees with your beliefs. The Conflict Between the Individual and Society Essay The conflict between society and the individual is a theme portrayed throughout Twain's Huckleberry Finn.
Huck was not raised in accord with the accepted ways of civilization. I for one think this is a great change, and a brilliant post. Absolutely, less time delightedly exploring still more abstruse mistake-theory-legible problems (although these are fun and the theory that total unity is possible feels good) in favor of more time spent on projects such as, "which candidates are really fighting for the people vs.
just astroturfed shills" hear hear! Aeon is a registered charity committed to the spread of knowledge and a cosmopolitan worldview. Our mission is to create a sanctuary online for serious thinking.
Two kinds of academic freedom There are two distinctly different kinds of academic freedom, which should have distinct names: Individual academic freedom protects an individual professor.; Institutional academic freedom protects universities from interference by government, a right that applies to the community of scholars, not to individual faculty.
The conflict between the individual and society. Freedom The good life The legitimate role of the state Happiness *There are four options on how to go about this paper & In each option, you must discuss at least on premodern philosopher (Plato, Aristotle, Augustine) and one modern philosopher (Descartes, Hume, Sartre, Rawls, Young, hook).
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Three men have been charged after police raided a disused building in Retford.
Officers from Nottinghamshire Police descended on Carolgate in the town at around 3.25am on Sunday, March 24.
Ervin Bitri, 30, Klodjan Sina, 33, and Kreshnik Suli, 30, were all arrested and will be appearing in court today, Wednesday, March 27.
The three men have been charged with the production of cannabis in addition to the alleged kidnapping and false imprisonment of a 15-year-old boy on Tuesday, March 25.
Nottinghamshire Police found more than 1,000 cannabis plants from the disused building during the raid.
Much of Carolgate was cordoned off to the public while investigations took place.
A hole that appeared on the busy street was also cordoned off to the public in a move that appeared to be connected to the incident.
Lincolnshire Live photographer Anna Draper said that there was an obvious smell of cannabis in the area when she was on the scene on Monday, March 25.
The trio have been remanded in custody and will appear at Mansfield Magistrates' Court today, Wednesday, March 27.


text:
Romaine Vinton Goddard, Baroness von Overbeck ( – ) was an American woman who married the German diplomat Gustav von Overbeck.  She was the first American woman to become a maharani, of the territory of Sabah in present-day Malaysia.

Romaine Vinton Goddard was born in Ohio, one of two children of Daniel Convers Goddard, deputy secretary of the Interior, and poet and novelist Sarah Madeline Vinton.  Goddard died when his daughter was three years old and his widow and her two children moved to Washington, D.C.  In 1865, Madeline Goddard married Admiral John A. Dahlgren.

Goddard attended the Mount de Chantal Visitation Academy, a Catholic girls' school in Wheeling, West Virginia, from 1857 to 1859.  She was their first student to specialize in the harp and graduated with honors in both harp and piano.  In 1862, George Peter Alexander Healy painted her portrait playing the harp.

On March 16, 1870, Goddard married Gustav von Overbeck, a German diplomat.  Despite a winter storm, the wedding was a leading social event in Washington, with guests including US President Ulysses S. Grant.  They would have three children: Convers (b. 1871), Oscar (b. 1873), and Alfred (b. 1877).  Initially the couple lived in Germany, but while Overbeck was doing business in Asia, she was left to her own devices, living in Europe or Washington, DC.  She assumed the title Baroness when her husband was made a Baron in 1873, and the title maharani in 1877 when her husband was made Maharajah of Sabah, Rajah of Gaya and Sandakan by Abdul Momin, the Sultan of Brunei.  Eventually they separated, but never divorced.  He died in 1894.

In December 1875 at a reception at the Germany embassy in Washington, DC, she met the German pianist Hans von Bülow.  Bülow fell madly in love with her and wrote her a series of increasingly tortured love letters.  The exact nature of their relationship is unknown as only his letters to her are known to exist, and not any responses she may have written.  Her mother's novel A Washington Winter (1893) contains a sub-plot which was likely inspired by Bülow's pursuit of Goddard.

Her children and other descendants of her grandfather Samuel Finley Vinton engaged in a decades long legal battle (Von Overbeck v. Dahlgren) over his substantial estate, which lasted from his death in 1862 until 1928.

References

Created via preloaddraft
1848 births
1926 deaths

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


If you haven't read Back From the Edge, and Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS) and mold illness aren't foreign terms for you, please pick a copy of Dr. Lisa Petrison's ebook. I'd like to tell you why I make this suggestion. You need to know that I have no conflicts of interest to disclose in writing this review.
When I say the name Erik Johnson, some members of the CFS medical community roll their eyes. I roll mine back at them. They change the subject. I don't. Some members of the mold community roll their eyes. I roll mine back at them. They have no understanding of what it is Erik brings to those affected by chronic inflammatory response syndromes (CIRS) like we see in mold illness and CFS. I do.
The idea is simple enough. Exposure to a mixture of antigens that activate innate immune responses is not a good idea for those patients who have compromised regulation of innate immunity. Usually the harmful chemical stew of antigens in moldy buildings makes people sick. For a few, like Erik, the illness can come on after outdoor exposure too. Said another way, if you have an illness from mold exposure or CFS, stay out of moldy places or you will get sicker. Stay away from things that hurt you sounds easy until one realizes that 50% of the buildings in the US are water-damaged according to NIOSH. Wet buildings aren't healthy.
It is this chronic inflammatory illness that underlies illnesses due to mold exposures and underlies CFS as well. I showed the CFS world just that at the IACFS convention in 2009. The patients I presented there met all criteria for pediatric CFS. But they were actually pediatric mold patients. Oops; the contrived CFS case definition simply didn't work. Erik was there, as the photo of Erik and me (Chapter 21) shows. He was snubbed (again) there by some CFS big boys and I was ignored after a few months. Oh sure, the IACFS published my paper but face it: it is sad, it is really sad when patients' lives and health are at stake, to see relevant information (that assuredly would help people) discounted by care givers who could make a difference if they would only listen and think about what they heard. The data speak clearly to those with open minds.
Erik knows CFS now. His insights you will see in Back From the Edge began in 1985 with his experiences with mold exposures in Incline Village and Truckee, Nevada. He has known since 1986 that mold exposures caused then what some still call CFS. Erik puts the two elements together. He was there. The CFS docs might say they know mold now but we know they don't yet have the first idea. It's time that the world knows what Erik knows. And that includes the CFS docs.
Dr. Lisa Petrison knows too. Her book about Erik, Back From the Edge, short as it may be, tersely weaves the story of one man who saw too such, learned too much and talked too much to suit egos of the CFS establishment who said loudly that mold had nothing to do with CFS. If Erik had listened to them, his voice wouldn't be strident today as it is.
The list of the agencies and people who have publicly ignored Erik for 25 years isn't limited to the CDC and the CFS docs. Many others are included under the same blanket of denial: they were wrong then as they are now.
Maybe Erik is a polarizing figure: some like him a lot and some don't. I like his brains, determination and insights a lot. Erik is one of the good guys.
Look for about 20 short vignettes about Erik and his focus on extreme mold avoidance (EMA) as a therapy in Lisa's book. He has used EMA for many years to help avoid the debilitating inflammatory illness that those of us in the mold community would expect him to have. If you haven't read it, please do. Soon.
I trusted Erik to write chapters in each of my last two books, Mold Warriors (2005) and Surviving Mold (2010). When my new book comes out next year I hope it will have another chapter from Erik. What Erik says is clever, ironic and well thought out. Did I leave out poignant? His patience and persistence reminds me of Penelope from the Odyssey.
It remains incredible to me that so many docs have studiously ignored what Erik says. Cynical me, I suspect the reasons why include the attempt to avoid a widely publicized exposure of the shallowness of their thought. I guess Erik faces extreme logic avoidance (ELA) from some of the docs from the old time CFS school!
Sure, anyone who knows me will say that what Erik has observed as far as environmental causation of illness symptoms must be documented with labs and genomics, elements that we can obtain easily. But labs cost cash and when one is struggling to shovel enough snow to pay the light bill, labs done to satisfy come science requirements won't happen. The absence of genomic sampling in Erik and those he has helped, knowing that such sampling would look at the real "end basis" of abnormal physiology really does bother me. The genomic testing needs to be done.
Do I think that EMA is needed for the 99% of mold patients? No. Is the science of EMA established? No. Yet, is there any reason to doubt what Erik has told us about outdoor exposures like plumes, fire retardants, moldy logs and sewer gas emanations? NO!
I have referred at least 25 people over the years to contact Erik to learn EMA. They are better for that contact. I will maintain that without correction of the physiologic basis for the chronic inflammatory illness that we see every day in mold and over 90% of those diagnosed with putative CFS there is no hope for full restoration of proteogenomic control of inflammation. By implication, I think there is a greater quality of life for Erik if he had all his labs corrected. Just imagine Erik with his proteomics and genomics corrected: He would be sending us pictures from on top of Mount Everest!
Erik observes and puts what he sees on the proverbial table just as inductive thinkers beginning with Francis Bacon would have us do. We cannot discount what he sees as his observations are repeated by so many others. The reality of existence for Erik (and the group of others I have seen like him) is that minor changes of exposure, with limits of such exposure that are not detectable by others, teach us that the incredible importance of attention to detail is mandatory, including documentation of observations.
Erik has learned to live the way he does. Frankly, without his skills and creativity, we would not have Erik to kick around any more. But he is here and we celebrate him as a true visionary. I wish others had listened to him. I did and still do. What advances we would have seen if others who hold financial and political power in the CFS world had?
I continue to hear you, Erik. Please start collecting the labs, especially the genomics, to bring objective parameters to science and to what you know to be true. And if the money needed to do so isn't there, maybe now the well-heeled CFS researchers who throw cash at countless windmills will invest in what actually is wrong in those with chronic fatigue.
Lisa, you have done well. Many congratulations. I hope others will read what you have put on paper. This story is not over. Your work brings hope to those who can't climb Mount Whitney as Erik has ten times and counting.
Still, this war to overcome ignorance, arrogance and denial will be won by truth, honesty and integrity. The worlds of CFS and mold are all mutually enabled by education and understanding. Egos must stand down when faced with data.
When will this ideal solution occur? Erik hasn't yet climbed his Mount Everest the show the CFS and mold world looks like from 29,000 feet. But he will and when he does, all of us will benefit.


At 18th of February, 19.00 in our museum will happen poet KIKŌNES books "You are late" opening event.
This book dedicated in memory of talented poet and playwright Kikōne (Edgars Mednis, 1984–2006), who passed away at age of 22. His work was celebrated not only by his generation poets, but also by older generation of professionals from his craft. Even in his short life his unique experimental poetry left lasting effect in Latvian literature. Before his death, Kikōne made draft of this book, but was not able to publish it. It took 13years after his death, but lastly his book has come out to public.
This book contains around 150 poems made by Kikōne, some of them already known, others comes from poets personal records. This book covers all period of poets creative work, and interestingly it contains not only poems in Latvian but also in English, Russian and Latgalian languages.
This book got publish thanks to literates Aleksandrs Zapoļs and Svens Kuzmins. Prosaist and friend of Kikōnes, Svens Kuzmins writes" Kikōne in real name Edgars Mednis, born 1984 in Riga, loved short but bright and eventful life. He grew up in Latgalian family,studied at Āgenskalns State Gymnasium, with excellence graduated from Riga First Gymnasium and started working as seaman. In his 22 years of life he found his place as one of brightest and free minded poet of our generation.


text:
Track a booking
Enviably positioned on a headland on Waiheke Island, this home designed by Stevens Lawson Architects has a central, informal space where a cleverly camouflaged kitchen emerges from the organic cedar-clad forms.
The Distributed Kitchen
Fisher & Paykel focuses on the usability and tactility of their products – the feel of a dial or profile of a hinge. This is a kitchen that is all about the detail. Particular care has been taken to make the appliances and cabinetry integrate into the form and materiality of the house.
A Social Space
The layout of the kitchen was based on an understanding of how the space would be used. Architect Gary Lawson says, "Of course you think about relationships between the sink and the oven and the refrigerator and things that you go to regularly. But it's probably more about thinking about the kitchen socially, how it will work. In a house like this, which is about relaxation, you're going to have people sitting around the kitchen interacting and talking at all times of the day. It's about making the kitchen easy to use for big groups."
In a house like this, you're going to have people sitting around the kitchen. It's about making the kitchen easy to use for big groups.
And Aesthetics
The kitchen island mimics the cedar-clad curves of the home's exterior, embodying this big idea in a small way. Here again, functionality and aesthetics work as seamless partners – the island's straight edge creates the working bench, then curves in to allow for bar seating.
Every Detail Considered
It is not just the placement and general layout of the appliances that received attention here. Consideration was paid to the tiniest detail of how far the DishDrawer™ handle would jut out, the exact shape of routing of the custom handle pull, and how to minimise the separation between cooktop and oven. What has resulted in a kitchen that is not just aesthetically pleasing, but works at the minute tactile level as well.
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Contemporary Cooktop
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text:
// Copyright 2000-2020 JetBrains s.r.o. Use of this source code is governed by the Apache 2.0 license that can be found in the LICENSE file.
package com.intellij.ide.hierarchy.call;

import com.intellij.ide.hierarchy.CallHierarchyBrowserBase;
import com.intellij.ide.hierarchy.HierarchyNodeDescriptor;
import com.intellij.ide.hierarchy.HierarchyTreeStructure;
import com.intellij.ide.hierarchy.JavaHierarchyUtil;
import com.intellij.ide.util.treeView.NodeDescriptor;
import com.intellij.openapi.actionSystem.ActionGroup;
import com.intellij.openapi.actionSystem.ActionManager;
import com.intellij.openapi.actionSystem.ActionPlaces;
import com.intellij.openapi.actionSystem.IdeActions;
import com.intellij.openapi.diagnostic.Logger;
import com.intellij.openapi.project.Project;
import com.intellij.psi.PsiElement;
import com.intellij.psi.PsiField;
import com.intellij.psi.PsiMember;
import com.intellij.psi.PsiMethod;
import com.intellij.ui.PopupHandler;
import org.jetbrains.annotations.ApiStatus;
import org.jetbrains.annotations.NotNull;

import javax.swing.*;
import java.util.Comparator;
import java.util.Map;

public class CallHierarchyBrowser extends CallHierarchyBrowserBase {
  private static final Logger LOG = Logger.getInstance(CallHierarchyBrowser.class);

  public CallHierarchyBrowser(@NotNull Project project, @NotNull PsiMember method) {
    super(project, method);
  }

  /**
   * @deprecated use CallHierarchyBrowser#CallHierarchyBrowser(Project, PsiMember)
   */
  @Deprecated
  @ApiStatus.ScheduledForRemoval(inVersion = "2020.2")
  public CallHierarchyBrowser(@NotNull Project project, @NotNull PsiMethod method) {
    super(project, method);
  }

  @Override
  protected void createTrees(@NotNull final Map<String, JTree> type2TreeMap) {
    ActionGroup group = (ActionGroup)ActionManager.getInstance().getAction(IdeActions.GROUP_CALL_HIERARCHY_POPUP);
    final JTree tree1 = createTree(false);
    PopupHandler.installPopupHandler(tree1, group, ActionPlaces.CALL_HIERARCHY_VIEW_POPUP, ActionManager.getInstance());
    final BaseOnThisMethodAction baseOnThisMethodAction = new BaseOnThisMethodAction();
    baseOnThisMethodAction
      .registerCustomShortcutSet(ActionManager.getInstance().getAction(IdeActions.ACTION_CALL_HIERARCHY).getShortcutSet(), tree1);
    type2TreeMap.put(getCalleeType(), tree1);

    final JTree tree2 = createTree(false);
    PopupHandler.installPopupHandler(tree2, group, ActionPlaces.CALL_HIERARCHY_VIEW_POPUP, ActionManager.getInstance());
    baseOnThisMethodAction
      .registerCustomShortcutSet(ActionManager.getInstance().getAction(IdeActions.ACTION_CALL_HIERARCHY).getShortcutSet(), tree2);
    type2TreeMap.put(getCallerType(), tree2);
  }

  @Override
  protected PsiElement getElementFromDescriptor(@NotNull HierarchyNodeDescriptor descriptor) {
    if (descriptor instanceof CallHierarchyNodeDescriptor) {
      CallHierarchyNodeDescriptor nodeDescriptor = (CallHierarchyNodeDescriptor)descriptor;
      return nodeDescriptor.getEnclosingElement();
    }
    return null;
  }

  @Override
  protected PsiElement getOpenFileElementFromDescriptor(@NotNull HierarchyNodeDescriptor descriptor) {
    if (descriptor instanceof CallHierarchyNodeDescriptor) {
      CallHierarchyNodeDescriptor nodeDescriptor = (CallHierarchyNodeDescriptor)descriptor;
      return nodeDescriptor.getTargetElement();
    }
    return null;
  }

  @Override
  protected boolean isApplicableElement(@NotNull PsiElement e) {
    return e instanceof PsiMethod || e instanceof PsiField;
  }

  @Override
  protected HierarchyTreeStructure createHierarchyTreeStructure(@NotNull final String typeName, @NotNull final PsiElement psiElement) {
    if (getCallerType().equals(typeName)) {
      return new CallerMethodsTreeStructure(myProject, (PsiMember)psiElement, getCurrentScopeType());
    }
    if (getCalleeType().equals(typeName)) {
      return new CalleeMethodsTreeStructure(myProject, (PsiMember)psiElement, getCurrentScopeType());
    }
    else {
      LOG.error("unexpected type: " + typeName);
      return null;
    }
  }

  @Override
  protected Comparator<NodeDescriptor<?>> getComparator() {
    return JavaHierarchyUtil.getComparator(myProject);
  }

  public static final class BaseOnThisMethodAction extends CallHierarchyBrowserBase.BaseOnThisMethodAction {
  }
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


Perhaps in your 40's you become something that solidifies. You clean up tattoos, you clean up credit.
One way to clean up credit and raise your score is to enter into many, many payment arrangements to get to the finish line of each debt one has incurred. Chop it up. A good idea is to consolidate all your student loans, more than once if you take out more. When you take out more loans several loans show up on your credit report, but when you consolidate, all the loans shrink down to one single loan and make your score go up.
The next thing to do is to see to the end of that student loan. There is such a thing as "Public Service Loan Forgiveness" and after you make 120 consecutive payments while working in a non-profit, or a federal or government position or for the Police Dept. or Fire Dept. or for Peace Corps or AmeriCorps-they will forgive the balance after approximately 10 years of payments. It's good to get on an Income Driven Plan that is doable and pursue a service option if looking for a job and having high debt in student loans 100,000+ think about those practical options. You will breathe easier when you have all finish lines and your score will go up the more arrangements you have, for post-dated payments, the better your score. Don't let debts linger or fester see them to the finish.


An array of unusual airplants known as tillandsia all meticulously tucked into a unique spiral porcelain vase. This bold modern piece is a sure pleaser to be given as a thank you, birthday, just because or simply to put on display in your own home. It offers low maintenance and many comments.
Airplants are tropical and subtropical plants which require very little watering as when grown in trees get their nutrients from air and rainfall. Keep your airplant moist by misting with water once a week. Plants will become dull in color and shrunken if very dry. Display in medium bright light or in indirect sunlight in 60 – 80F temperature. Do not expose to extreme temperatures. Will survive without fertilizer but can be fertilized at ¼ household strength once a month during warm growing seasons.


text:
import MockDate from 'mockdate';
import type { ReactElement } from 'react';
import { StrictMode } from 'react';
import { act } from 'react-dom/test-utils';
import type { RenderOptions } from '@testing-library/react';
import { render } from '@testing-library/react';
import { _rs as onLibResize } from 'rc-resize-observer/lib/utils/observerUtil';
import { _rs as onEsResize } from 'rc-resize-observer/es/utils/observerUtil';

export function setMockDate(dateString = '2017-09-18T03:30:07.795') {
  MockDate.set(dateString);
}

export function resetMockDate() {
  MockDate.reset();
}

const globalTimeout = global.setTimeout;

export const sleep = async (timeout = 0) => {
  await act(async () => {
    await new Promise(resolve => {
      globalTimeout(resolve, timeout);
    });
  });
};

const customRender = (ui: ReactElement, options?: Omit<RenderOptions, 'wrapper'>) =>
  render(ui, { wrapper: StrictMode, ...options });

export { customRender as render };

export const triggerResize = (target: Element) => {
  const originGetBoundingClientRect = target.getBoundingClientRect;

  target.getBoundingClientRect = () => ({ width: 510, height: 903 } as DOMRect);

  act(() => {
    onLibResize([{ target } as ResizeObserverEntry]);
    onEsResize([{ target } as ResizeObserverEntry]);
  });

  target.getBoundingClientRect = originGetBoundingClientRect;
};

export * from '@testing-library/react';


Sixty Awesome Episodes. One Awesome Show. Yo!
It all started with a video of a homeless man curbside doing impressions of characters from the hit TV show Breaking Bad for food that went viral on YouTube.
Who cares that the man wasn't homeless, but a struggling comedian from the midwest who chased his dreams to Hollywood. Miles Allen was just having fun in a private joke among friends that ended up online, instantly changing his life.


Having been the premier contractor for property excavation, demolition, land clearing, as well as general grading services for over twenty-five years in the McHenry County, IL area, our company, Bob Mahoney Excavation Inc, places quality work and customer satisfaction at the forefront of our business principles. By placing such a high emphasis on not only providing world-class excavation & demo services but also by adhering to the project expectation(s), we have been able to lay claim to being the best of the best in regards to affordability, consistency, and above all else: client retention. Find out why!
Typically a commercial excavating job is best left to trained & experienced professionals, and at Bob Mahoney Excavating Inc, we employ only talented and proven experts to oversee our excavation service contracts. With over 25 years of industry experience, we may not have been your first choice, but we can confidently say we will be your last!
Some of the most important deciding factors to consider when choosing a company to complete demolition services on your behalf is the company's equipment inventory, crew size, and above all else: EXPERIENCE. Our seasoned professionals take pride in our fast and efficiency demo services, with safety being the first priority.
Our teams coordinate with each client individually to ensure that their project is completed punctually, within budget, and up to any coding standards. Our land clearing services include but are not limited to the following areas of coverage: grading, leveling, land/lot clearing, site preparation, site development, disposal, as well as tree & vegetation removal.
Demolition - Ensure your customers are safe and well organized with crisp, clean lines that clearly indicate your business's preferred parking practices. Be sure to ask about our annual "lineups" to your line striping!
By combining world-class excavation experience with the latest and greatest in terms of equipment, our crews here at Bob Mahoney Excavation Inc are able to guarantee your project, whether it's commercial, residential, or agricultural, will be completed on time, within budget, and compliant with all coding and permitting standards.
In our 25+ years of excavation experience here in McHenry County, Lake County and Southern Wisconsin, we've had the opportunity to accommodate clients in various capacities and with that accommodation, we've also gained intimate knowledge of the terrain and how to "shape" it.
Grading, Leveling, & more! Are you considering revamping your property with an expansion, or developing a new parcel of land altogether? One of the most crucial considerations any home or business owners need to take into account is enlisting the assistance of proven professionals. With the abundance of companies and contractors trying their hand at excavating, land development, or demo services, it's an unfortunate risk that many property owners unwittingly recruit inexperienced or subpar help. Take the guesswork out of your next project and ensure you're protected with Bob Mahoney's tried and true crews.
On-site Services Regardless if your job-site is large or small, adequate preparation and development are crucial towards all construction endeavors. Having the land mapped, staked, labeled, and cleared provides a clear and understandable outline for construction crews to follow. Furthermore, this allows project materials and detritus to remain organized and easy to manage, thus eliminating any unnecessary safety concerns.


From a young age, most people have the need to brush and floss daily pretty well drilled into them by parents who warn that eating too much sugar will rot their teeth and from dentists always on the look out for the slightest sign of a cavity. While brushing and flossing continue to rank as the most important habits a person can use to prevent tooth decay and gum disease, scheduling regular trips to the dentist remains a necessary part of maintaining strong oral health.
According to a study conducted by the American Dental Association, 40 percent of Americans put off visiting the dentist due to dental anxiety. Even if you don't fall into the category of person who avoids the dentist at all costs, very few people would consider a trip to a dental office as a pleasant experience.
Well now the results of a recent study offers some welcome news to those who don't care for their dental visits. For most people, scheduling once-a-year dental checkups and cleanings may be enough to stop the onset of tooth decay and gum disease, the leading cause of tooth loss in the U.S.
For nearly the last 50 years, dentists have recommended patients undergo routine dental checkups and cleanings at least twice annually. However, this recommendation was largely based on common sense thinking rather than any hard scientific evidence. By receiving cleanings twice a year, dentists could ensure they had the opportunity to spot any early signs of tooth decay or gum disease before either disease had a chance to further develop.
Despite the value of taking such a cautious approach, researchers at the University of Michigan have found as the result of their latest study that once-a-year cleanings should offer adequate enough protection for individuals without any preexisting oral health concerns. Patients who suffer from the risk factors of gum disease and tooth decay- which constitutes half of the nation's population- such as diabetes, smoking, and heart disease, should continue to schedule visits at least twice annually.
As part of their study, researchers examined the dental records of over 5,100 adults who regularly visited with their dentist over the last 16 years, underwent one or two cleanings annually, and that had no history of gum disease. Researchers then examined the data for any links between the frequency of teeth cleanings patients underwent and long-term tooth loss. Researchers also took into consideration the three largest risk factors for gum disease- genetics, diabetes, and smoking- when assessing a patient's potential risk of gum disease.
Researchers determined that biannual cleanings offered significant benefits for individuals who suffered from one or more of the primary risk factors for gum disease, while individuals who suffered from two or more risk factors benefited greatly from undergoing three or four cleanings a year. However, for individuals who don't suffer from any of the major risk factors of gum disease, yearly cleanings were satisfactory.
The results of this study were published online in the Journal of Dental Research.
Before deciding whether you should cut back on the number of visits you make to the dental office, you first need to discuss the current state of your oral health with your dentist. Even if you don't suffer from one of the risk factors of gum disease listed above doesn't mean that your teeth and gums are healthy enough to avoid regular cleanings. Seniors and adults who suffer from dry mouth, pregnant women, and young children are just a few examples of people that need to continue scheduling regular checkups and cleanings regardless of whether they suffer from a risk factor for gum disease.
You should also consider your own personal oral hygiene regimen when deciding whether to forego biannual dental visits. If you occasionally forget to floss or don't always brush at least twice daily, you have a higher risk of developing gum disease regardless of what health concerns you may deal with.


A purveyor of all things social with an insatiable curiosity for understanding people, what drives them and finding the balance in an evolving digital world. Jeannette is a Senior Digital Marketing Analyst at Mintel, responsible for producing syndicated and custom reports and providing omnichannel insights that enable clients to thrive within the digital space across a range of industry sectors.
T-Mobile is a prime example of truly being present on social and creating valuable one-on-one engagements. Its 2019 Super Bowl rollout was no exception.


text:
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Larry M. Waranch
Larry Waranch is an AV rated trial lawyer and a founding partner of Waranch & Brown. His practice focuses primarily on medical malpractice defense, medical licensure matters, administrative defense and general liability.
Since 1978, Mr. Waranch has litigated numerous, serious cases of alleged medical negligence. He has also tried many high exposure claims of product liability, automobile negligence and premises liability. He has been involved in jury trials in the State and Federal Courts and has argued appellate cases at all levels of the Maryland Courts. He has represented physicians of many different specialties in a wide variety of licensure and credentialing matters.
Mr. Waranch is National Counsel to Podiatry Insurance Company of America for which he represents podiatrists in medical malpractice and licensure matters throughout the United States. He also serves as National Advisor to Podiatry Insurance Company of America in complex cases around the country, in insurance coverage disputes, and cases involving excess exposure.
Mr. Waranch graduated with honors from Rutgers University School of Law. He received his B.A., Magna Cum Laude with Special Distinction, from Boston University, where he was elected to Phi Beta Kappa.
Larry Waranch has been identified as one of Maryland's medical malpractice "Super Lawyers" by Maryland Super Lawyers Magazine and is an elected member of the American Board of Trial Advocates. In addition, Mr. Waranch served as Chairman of the Governor's Executive Advisory Council Task Force on Automobile Liability Insurance as well as Chairman of the Baltimore City Task Force on Food and Hunger. He has also chaired various Bar Association Committees and remains an active member of the Maryland State and Baltimore County Bar Associations.
Mr. Waranch has lectured extensively at University of Maryland School of Law, University of Baltimore School of Law and Stevenson University on subjects including Medical Malpractice, Torts, Insurance Law, Civil Litigation, Depositions and Alternative Dispute Resolution. Mr. Waranch is a member of the adjunct faculty of the University of Maryland School of Medicine where he teaches Fellows in the Forensic Psychiatry Program. He is a former member of the faculty of the Shemer Bar Review Course where he taught Torts. He has also presented numerous seminars to professional meetings of physicians and other healthcare providers, as well as to claims managers and staff at insurance companies and hospitals.
Mr. Waranch has authored two books on the subject of the representation of children in abuse and neglect cases.
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text:
Ruskin and Wordsworth
They had the same thoughts about the need of keeping inviolate the sanctuary for thought and health and national happiness which the English Lake District, still undestroyed and unvulgarised, truly is. (p. 168)
Read Wordsworth's protest against the projected railway from Kendal to Windermere, and set side by side with it Ruskin's preface to the pamphlet entitled A Protest against the Extension of Railways in the Lake District. The feeling and the spirit of both writers are the same. They had the same reverential regard for the life of the simple dalesmen amongst whom they dwelt. There are few tenderer pictures of cottage life than Wordsworth's description of Margaret and Michael. You will find that Ruskin, who spoke of the men about his doors as knights at Agincourt whose words for a thousand pounds was their bond, did but echo the feeling for Westmoreland peasantry that Wordsworth gave utterance to. (pp. 168-169)
It may be true that Ruskin stood in nearer relation to the peasants than the poet. Wordsworth, as the tradition in the dales still goes, "was not a vara conversable man at best o' times," and when he speaks of Michael he classes him with
Shepherds, dwellers in the valleys, men
Whom I already loved;—not verily
For their own sakes but for the fields and hills
Where was their occupation and abode.
whereas with Ruskin, what he seemed most to care about was to go to the cottage or to the workshop, and be made by his tender approachableness one of the family. But both believed in the true-hearted, innate nobility of the dalesmen, and honoured them for their native worth. (pp. 169-170)
The poet who in so much that he wrote glorified the peasant's lot by shewing the peasant could think high thoughts as he pursued his lowly calling, and prove himself a happy warrior as he wrestled with storm and heat and all the sorrow of a poor man's lot, was after all but expressing the mind of Ruskin. Nay was himself an embodiment of Ruskin's ideal, as all who visit Dove Cottage to-day may testify. (p. 170)
"In order to teach men how to be satisfied it is necessary fully to understand the art and joy of humble life…. the life of domestic affection and domestic peace, and full of sensitiveness to all elements of costless and kind pleasure, therefore chiefly to the loveliness of the natural world," so wrote Ruskin. (p. 170)
It was surely to teach this lesson of blessed content that Wordsworth lived and sang. "It is not," says Ruskin, "that men are ill-fed, but they have no pleasure in their work by which they make their bread, and therefore look to wealth as the only means of pleasure." (p. 170)
This Wordsworth knew, and whether he was sketching the picture of the priest of the Duddon Valley, or "Wonderful Walker" at Seathwaite, or the firm-minded Leech-gatherer, or the cheerful-hearted School-master, he seems to have felt and told us that the quiet mind that labours and is content, has found enough of the will of God for men on earth to make the journey to the end a way of peace. Of no two writers in our Victorian age can it be more truly said that they agreed in their belief that a nation's wealth was not mammon but men, and that labour in the country side had peculiar dignity and calm, and might have therewithal content. (p. 171)….
But it was not the common admiration of friends, or common need for the encouragement that friends could give, that made Wordsworth and Ruskin kin. It was rather their common perception of vital truth. If ever two minds could walk together because they were agreed, it was in the assertion that men could only truly live their highest and happiest spirit life here on earth in communion with Nature, if first they could perceive that Nature was a revelation of God's spirit and then could wonder and love it with deepest reverence. "The Spirit of God," so wrote Ruskin, "is around you, in the air that you breathe. His glory in the light that you see, and in the fruitfulness of the earth and the joy of its creature. He has written for you day by day, His revelation as He has granted you day by day your daily bread." And again, "All this passing to and fro of fruitful shower and grateful shade, and all these visions of silver palaces built above the horizon, and of moaning winds and waters, and glories of coloured cloud and cloven ray, really are but to deepen in our hearts the acceptance and distinctness and clearness of the simple words, 'Our father which art in Heaven'" (pp. 184-185)….
With this evangel of the vital needs of Admiration, Hope and Love, these two prophets of the Lord, helped their generation. Fallen asleep—the one in 1850, the other in 1900, all that is mortal of them rest in lakeland earth. Grasmere Churchyard and Coniston Churchyard are now individually consecrated; and pilgrims to either shrine will think of the double debt we owe, and hear not one but two clarion voices calling us, to lowlier reverence, loftier hopes, and love for men and Nature more devout. (p. 187)
They will hear within the voices of these seers a word of warning. This little twenty mile square of hill and dale fed their souls with noblest passion, and lifted up their hearts to noblest heights. Every year the quiet and the seclusion of it is threatened, every year its unspoiled beauty is in jeopardy. No one who truly cares for the future of Great Britain, can think of this National Resting-ground robbed of its healing charm,—its power to inspire and invigorate the thought of the present, or illustrate and enforce the thought of the past. All that is mortal of Wordsworth rest in Grasmere Churchyard; all that is mortal of Ruskin lies in Coniston. But we are false to the trust that they gave the tender earth of the countryside they loved so truly if we will not listen to their spirit words, and strive as well as we may to keep the land of their inspiration a heritage for the helpful thought, the highest pleasure, and the fullest peace of the generations yet to be. (pp. 187-188)
(Ruskin and the English Lakes, pp. 163-188)