Projected for 11.9 FanDuel pts Carey Price is the #24 ranked goalie. He is the #2 highest priced goalie ($9000). Using our calculation of expected points per dollar, Price is worth $5.8K. These are 5 better options at lower salaries: Frederik Andersen (13.6 FP), Robin Lehner (15.4 FP), Petr Mrazek (19.3 FP), Devan Dubnyk (16.1 FP), and Cory Schneider (16.1 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 18.5 FPs, a value reached in 31 of 75 games (41%). The combined 'cover percentage' for goalies priced at $4.0K and above is 36%.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Based on a projected 3 DraftKings points Price is fairly ranked. He is the #24 highest priced goalie ($7200). At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $5.4K. Darcy Kuemper is also priced at $7200 and is a better option at this price. Instead of Price consider these better options at lower salaries: Cory Schneider (4 FP), Jimmy Howard (3.7 FP), Brian Elliott (4.1 FP), Jacob Markstrom (4.6 FP), and Samuel Montembeault (4 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 3.9 FPs, a value reached in 37 of 75 games (49%). The combined 'cover percentage' for goalie priced at $4.0K and above is 36%.
Price is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.
Carey Price is the number #2 ranked goalie. His elite ranking was helped by his higher games played (65). Based on average fantasy points he is the #19 goalie. He showed improvement from his start of the season to the middle of his season, but then his production dropped off. In his middle 22 games he averaged 7.1 fantasy points which was higher than his start (4.6 FP) and his ending average (5.9 FP). His standard deviation divided by his average is 0.72 which is close to the league ratio. Our projected ceiling for Price when he 'goes off' is 15 fantasy points (his average is 5.9FPs).
Price may be getting older but he did get better this season. His fantasy average improved by 44%.
He has averaged 14.8 fantasy points per week and had 12 weeks where he came up short (below 80% of average) and had 11 weeks where he was +20% above average.
He averaged 18.9 FD points and 4.7 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was 0.6 and on FanDuel it was 2.4 fantasy points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 8.8 and 35.2 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.


The Chairman of the PCA, Mr Harold Scruby, today called on the NSW Minister for Roads and Transport, the Hon Carl Scully, to immediately introduce a minimum of three demerit points for motorists who stop their vehicles in pedestrian zones.
"But the most glaring omission had been that there was no reference whatsoever to the introduction of demerit points for motorists who stop on or before pedestrian crossings. This is utterly unacceptable as the committee had received many submissions from highly respectable organisations calling for such a law.
Mr Scruby added: "It is utterly absurd and totally inconsistent that this Government, which is committed to the safest roads in the world, can possibly support 3 demerit points for travelling in a bus-lane, where there may be inconvenience but where absolutely nobody's safety is compromised, yet continue to ignore this vital safety initiative. This proposal will cost nothing more than Mr Scully's signature on the Regulation.
"And is it any wonder that the NRMA has just discovered that over 70% of motorists speed through schoolzones? Enforcement is an utter farce, with the Police Commissioner placing ten times the importance on burglary than the lives and limbs of our most important asset, our children.
"The PCA implores Minister Scully to avoid another Bulli and act now . And the PCA implores the RTA to install fixed speed cameras at all school zones throughout the state. Money is NOT the issue. They will more than pay for themselves through fines and the huge savings in hospital admissions." Mr Scruby said.
An Auditor-General's report released in November found that the State Government's parking police, who began operating in 1945, were inefficient.
The LGA submission said councils should control parking - citing the example of the country town of Scone which only had one parking police enforcement carried out In the past year.
The submission said that in six months to July 1997, Manly parking police issued 1000 infringements while Manly rangers issued 1500 a month.
Higher penalties for dangerous parking offences near pedestrian crossings, now $200, and on footpaths, now $60, as well as a new offence for leaving trailer bogies on public roads, should be introduced, it said.
The submission also said: "For the law to be effective, some form of meaningful deterrent (loss of demerit points in relation to a licence or registration) needs to be implemented."
Pedestrian Council of Australia chairman Harold Scruby welcomed the LGA's submission, saying police resources should be freed to investigate criminals.
"Every taxi driver in Sydney knows they will not be booked for parking Illegally, they will just be warned," he said. "The parking police do not want confrontation.
"They just want to book parked cars with expired meters and protect their patch."
But a State parking officer said the unit's numbers had fallen from 320 to 218.
"The council rangers will simply be revenue raisers," the officer said.
For many years, the PCA lobbied both the RTA and Roads Minister Carl Scully to include demerit points for the offence of stopping in Pedestrian Zones. To date, in spite of all the evidence and the overwhelming support from a wide variety of stakeholders, we have been unsuccessful.
To his credit and in response to our requests, he did create a new Regulation/Offence and increase the penalty for stopping in Pedestrian Zones from $147 to $220.
However, this new offence has been left largely unenforceable because all the Council Rangers and Council Law Enforcement Officers (CLEOs) have been told and trained that they must always (quote) "GO BY THE SIGNS".
In the past, most Pedestrian Zones were surrounded by "No Standing" signs. Under the old law, this allowed motorists to stop and set down or pick up passengers. The law and the signs will continue to have legal effect until the end of 2006.
The law and signs therefore "invite" motorists to stop and park for as long as they like (the legislation is silent on time) if they are engaged in picking up or setting down passengers.
It is extremely dangerous behaviour.
Vehicles stopped in these locations obstruct the vision between motorists and pedestrians.
There is no limitation on size and vehicles as large as pantechnicons can legally stop and park in these locations, right across the pedestrian crossing itself.
While the PCA continues to lobby both the RTA and Local Councils to install the new signs as soon as possible, well over half of the NSW parking signs surrounding Pedestrian Zones remain old and potentially lethal.
To add insult to injury, most Rangers and CLEOs will not issue the $220 fine where there are No Stopping signs because they have been instructed to "GO BY THE SIGNS".
As it is legal to stop and park in Pedestrian Zones with the old No Standing signs (if the driver is picking up or setting down passengers) and because of the abovementioned instruction given to enforcement officers regarding the new "No Stopping" signs, Mr Scully's Regulation and $220 penalty have becoming largely unenforced. The vast majority of officers issue the $147 penalty.
When we wrote and pointed out this anomaly to Mr Scully, we received the above reply (undated but about February 2002) from Parliamentary Secretary, Reba Meagher who stated: "It is a matter for the enforcement agencies to determine which penalty notice is issued ..."
This reply is utterly unacceptable.
Laws should be clear, concise and unambiguous.
Motorists should know which penalties apply to certain offences.
No laws should permit discrimination which this law clearly allows.
And it should not be up to enforcement officers to decide which penalty they feel like issuing on the day.
Mr Scully obviously introduced the higher penalty in order to deter motorists from stopping in Pedestrian Zones and to reduce the number of motorists stopping in these locations.
That was his intention and the intention of the NSW Parliament.
In 1999, Mr Scully and the RTA formally committed to "2010 - The Safest Roads in the World". This commitment included saving 2,000 lives by 2010 and 820 lives by 2005 (see commitments below).
To date there have been fewer than a handful of lives saved.
To date Mr Scully has done nothing to correct his potentially error.
It is extremely difficult to imagine just how Mr Scully and the RTA intend to meet these "life and limb saving commitments" when this culture of apathy and pass-the-parcel is permitted to prevail.
The following recommendations are designed to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of enforcement, fine collection and the public understanding of the law applicable to parking.
•	the identification of opportunities to improve settlement of fines due.
•	fines for parking and traffic offences committed by drivers domiciled overseas (in the use of rental vehicles while in Australia) be enforced via credit card payment either by an "on the spot" fine or by the rental company collecting penalties subsequent to the offence.
•	public education campaigns be undertaken of the law by responsible agencies.
Currently a potentially dangerous parking offence does not attract demerit points (in terms of the driver's capacity to retain his/her driver's licence). Demerit points are primarily associated with traffic offences, that is "moving" vehicles, for example, speeding.
•	stand (park) on a bus stop, stand or zone situated on a Clearway, Transit Lane, Bus Lane or Buses Only Lane.
The proposal was subsequently withdrawn.
The introduction of demerit points for certain offences, for example, parking in No Stopping zones or Clearways, seems to have merit.
It may be worthy of consideration in situations of employees committing offences in the conduct of commerce on behalf of their employer in the knowledge that the employer will pay the fine.
Conclusion: There are a number of enforcement alternatives used in other states which could be considered (or reconsidered) for use in NSW to improve compliance with law.


The chairman of Pakistan Cricket Board's executive committee Najam Sethi has expressed his desire to include a team from Kashmir in the second edition of Pakistan Super League.
Najam Sethi tweeted on social media website Twitter that it is his dream to induct a team from Kashmir in Pakistan Super League but in order to go ahead with this initiative he would love to see the other 5 franchises support him and turn this dream into a reality.
My dream is to launch 6th Kashmir team in PSL this year. Hope our five franchisee partners will support me in this initiative.
The inaugural edition of Pakistan Super League took place in UAE where five teams participated namely Peshawar Zalmi, Karachi Kings, Lahore Qalandars, Quetta Galadiators and the champions Islamabad United.
The Pakistan Super League was a huge success not just financially but also in terms of promoting a soft image of Pakistan in front of the entire world. A team from Kashmir would be the ideal addition to PSL as the a lot of talent exist in that area but they lack an ideal forum to express themselves and nurture their skills.
It may be noted that many cricket fans from Pakistan have raised their voice in support of a team from Kashmir to be included in PSL and this news will be a breath of fresh air for the cricket thirsty nation.


text:
package com.braintreegateway;

import java.math.BigDecimal;
import java.util.ArrayList;
import java.util.Calendar;
import java.util.List;

import com.braintreegateway.util.NodeWrapper;

public class Installment {

  private String id;
  private Calendar projectedDisbursementDate;
  private Calendar actualDisbursementDate;
  private BigDecimal amount;
  private List<Adjustment> adjustments;

  public Installment(NodeWrapper node) {
    id = node.findString("id");
    amount = node.findBigDecimal("amount");
    projectedDisbursementDate = node.findDateTime("projected_disbursement_date");
    actualDisbursementDate = node.findDateTime("actual_disbursement_date");
    adjustments = new ArrayList<Adjustment>();
    for (NodeWrapper adjustmentNode : node.findAll("adjustments/adjustment")) {
      adjustments.add(new Adjustment(adjustmentNode));
    }
  }

  public String getId() {
    return id;
  }

  public Calendar getProjectedDisbursementDate() {
    return projectedDisbursementDate;
  }

  public Calendar getActualDisbursementDate() {
    return actualDisbursementDate;
  }

  public BigDecimal getAmount() {
    return amount;
  }

  public List<Adjustment> getAdjustments() {
    return adjustments;
  }
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


P.M.B. 190, Garki, Abuja – Nigeria.
Invitation to Pre-Qualify for the Consultancy Services of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) of the Proposed 24" X 5 KM Gas Pipeline and Associated TIE-INS from Obigbo Compressor Station – Obigbo North Station (Obigbo Node) in Rivers State.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) intends to engage the services of a reputable consultancy firm to carry out the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) of the proposed 24" x 5 Km Gas Pipeline and Associated Tie-ins from Obigbo Compressor Station – Obigbo North Station (Obigbo Node) in Rivers State. By this publication, competent EIA consultancy firms are invited to submit pre-qualification documentation for the required consultancy services for the project.
The proposed 24" x 5 Km gas pipeline is to be installed within the existing 25 m Right of Way (RoW), in parallel with the 14" Alakiri and 16" PHCN – Obigbo Node gas pipeline. The project is a priority segment of the Early Gas Phase of the Trans – Nigeria Gas Pipeline (TNGP).
Preparation of Terms of Reference (ToR) document acceptable to the Federal Ministry of Environment and the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR).
Baseline studies of project area to determine the position of the environment prior to the project development.
Study of the Associated and Potential Environmental Impacts of the project implementation on the general area, using predetermined measurements as supplied by both Federal Ministry of Environment and Department of petroleum Resources.
Compare the measurement against those gathered from the baseline studies.
Liaising with the affected communities and documenting the agreement reached, as part of the implementation report. Such agreements shall contain names, addresses, occupation, educational background, understanding of the project implementations, etc. of those interviewed.
Develop a sampling map indicating sample points that is acceptable to Federal Ministry of Environment and Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR).
Carry out sampling for both Dry and Wet seasons and conduct acceptable laboratory analyses. Method of analysis used to reach conclusion shall be clearly stated and must conform to Federal Ministry of Environment and Department of Petroleum Resources standards.
Develop and recommend mitigation/alternative measures for planned works, environment monitoring plans during the project development and commissioning period.
Develop preliminary report acceptable to Federal Ministry of Environment and Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) and obtain Interim Certificate of Clearance from the Regulatory agencies to enable construction works to proceed.
Attend to all queries raised by the regulatory agencies.
Ensure that Gas Infrastructure Division is issued with twenty (20) copies of each set of the Draft Reports and Final Reports.
Liaise with the Regulatory agencies and ensure that the various reports are approved and certificate of Clearance is issued with minimum delay.
Attend all the various stages of hearing on EIA draft report, take note of all review issues raised by the Review Panel and incorporate all review comments into the Final Report. The Final Report, which must be acceptable to the Regulatory agencies, shall be twenty (20) copies plus two (2) electronic copies (CD ROM).
Any other work necessary for the realization of the project even though not stated in the scope of works.
NNPC plans to award the Contract for the EIA studies before the end of Q3, 2015.
All companies wishing to express their interest to bid for this consultancy service shall submit relevant documentation for pre-qualification as stipulated in item 4 below. Only" companies that are adjudged successful in the pre-qualification exercise shall be invited to collect tender documents for the consultancy services for the Environmental Impact Assessment of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) of the proposed 24" X 5 km Gas Pipeline and associated tie-ins from Obigbo Compressor Station – Obigbo North Station (Obigbo Node) in Rivers State.
An abridged Company profile containing evidence of similar jobs undertaken within the last 5 years. Please attach job completion certificates.
For locally established companies; Company Registration Certificate from Corporate Affairs Commission.
Evidence of current registration with NNPC, FMEnv, DPR, and NIPEX, PENCOM and ITF.
Detailed Nigerian content plan in accordance with NCDMB Act, 2010.
CVs of key personnel for the project.
Provide with verifiable evidence list of equipment/tools owned and or to be sourced by the company.
Confirm willingness to commence with the execution of this Consultancy Services on the basis of letter of Intent (LOI).
Company's CASHES and QA/QC Policy; Demonstrable ability and verifiable evidence to handle very volatile host communities and topical community issues; Details of Safety records for accidents, incidents, injuries and damages for the past three (3) years e.g. Lost Time Incidents, Down-Time etc.
Any additional information that will enhance the potentials of the company.
Tenderers are required to provide all the above requested information. Notwithstanding the submission of requested documentation, NNPC is neither committed nor obliged to include any bidder on the tender list or award any form of contract to company or associates.
NNPC plans to award the contract to a competent and established EIA Consultancy Firm that will deliver the project on a fast track schedule.
Your company shall provide NNPC with a letter of Authority to verify all claims made in your submissions.
This is not an invitation to Tender. Only companies adjudged qualified by NNPC under this pre-qualification procedure shall be invited to participate in the competitive tender.
NNPC reserves the right and discretion to either accept or reject any documents and it shall not be required to assign a reason for refusal to invite your company to participate in the bidding exercise or to enter any correspondence concerning the selection of any contractor for the services.
All costs incurred by your company as a result of this pre-qualification exercise and any subsequent request for information shall be to your account.


text:
Max Hartung (ur. 8 października 1989) – niemiecki szablista, wicemistrz Europy.

Na mistrzostwach Europy zdobył trzy medale − brązowy indywidualnie w 2010 oraz srebrny i brązowy wraz z drużyną (w 2010 i 2011 roku).

Linki zewnętrzne
 Profil na stronie FIE

Niemieccy szermierze
Ludzie urodzeni w Akwizgranie
Urodzeni w 1989
Niemieccy olimpijczycy
Uczestnicy Letnich Igrzysk Olimpijskich 2012
Uczestnicy Letnich Igrzysk Olimpijskich 2016

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


Small and medium-sized businesses often lack the resources and expertise to create and implement a sustainable marketing strategy and program. How do SMBs build a far-reaching brand and attract more customers when funds are limited and time is scarce?
Many people feel that a good-looking website is all they need; however, a visually appealing site is only half the battle. Successful sites have strong visual design and equally strong information design. Can users find what they are looking for easily and with a minimal amount of clicks? Have you identified explicit "calls to action" informing the user what to do and where to navigate to next? Is there an opportunity to capture user information by inviting visitors to sign up to an email newsletter, or download a whitepaper? Is your site "responsive" so users can view it on their tablets and smart phones? Have you installed an analytics program, such as Google Analytics, to measure incoming traffic and track engagement?
We come across a large number of sites that look enticing, but have not been optimized for search. Effective sites are built with search engines in mind. Critical to search success is proper keyword identification, meaning you have worked the keywords that best describe your company into the site code as well as the site content. Ensure you have a sitemap so your site is properly indexed. Pay attention to your URL structure and page names. Finally, ensure your site metadata includes the correct description and keywords for each page of your site. Users are so accustomed to searching on Google or Bing; it's imperative that your site is not only findable, but displayed high up in the search results (preferably showing up before your competitors').
We've obviously written a lot on the benefits of social media, and we can't emphasize enough how important social media is to your overall digital footprint. Social media not only amplifies your brand message, but also serves as the basis for engaging your customer base. Social media can account for up to 50 percent of referral web traffic, and well-written content in social media can help drive up your search rankings. Engaging content, at the right frequency, and in the right channel to reach your intended audience, is the key to making social media work for your business.
While many marketers think that email marketing has "seen its days", we believe that it's still a very important part of your overall program. Email is an effective way to "push" content out to a receptive audience. Of course, you have to be mindful of the basic rules of email marketing – i.e. get permission, optimize for deliverability, customize and personalize, etc. – but it can be incredibly effective to keep your brand, and your products and services, top of mind with your customers and clients. Email programs can also drive a significant amount of traffic to your website if you have strong calls to action and engaging content.
Good digital marketing is foundational to any organization's strategy. It's where your customers and prospects are increasingly spending their time, so it makes imminent sense that's where you need to invest your marketing dollars. If you have limited time and budget, and you want to make a big impact, we suggest you put these four undertakings at the top of your marketing priorities.
Sharad is the co-founder and CEO of Bright Blue Wave, a social media content agency focused on small and medium-sized businesses. He has 20 years experience in business, marketing and customer strategy development and implementation.


In the Spirit, I saw the angels obeying a heavenly command, pushing a huge pendulum in the opposite direction that it had previously swung, which was so far into degradation of sin and wickedness that it appeared to be unstoppable.
I then heard the Father say, "It's time to call forth the noble, the wealthy and the renowned of the earth.
I then saw the Spirit of Integrity begin to descend upon dignitaries, celebrities and the very elite!"
In the Spirit, I sensed the Lord saying. "There is a certain caliber of society that has been overlooked and given up hope for by many of My people, who have even stopped praying for them. But again it will be proven that it is by My Spirit, and My Spirit is being poured out upon all flesh.
I saw very influential people being drawn by God's Spirit into His Kingdom. I saw dignitaries, celebrities and the very "elite" being drawn into the house of the Lord. I saw some of them coming to church in armored cars with security guards around them ... but they were coming! I saw, at times, helicopters landing in church parking lots, bringing in dignitaries from high positions of government. Some were walking through the front doors of churches with body guards because of their honor and prestige. The high and mighty were coming into Father's house now as well as the lowly.
Integrity was gripping their hearts to hunger and honor the king who, they were realizing, had given them power, wealth and high positions in the land. I saw one very prominent person, whose name was a household name known throughout the nations, put a check in the offering plate in one service that was large enough to meet the church budget for the next five years. The tithe from this one check went out from this church to support all their missionaries a full year.
These dignitaries and wealthy ones, who had been filled with God's integrity and glory, could rarely stay in one church long, because of the publicity, and because they were making some religious people uncomfortable. As a result, the Holy Spirit would lead them to different churches, to visit and receive counsel and wisdom from many different styles of worship and revelation of teaching from more than just one minister, thereby receiving the whole counsel of God. Cross-pollination was vital for them, as they would visit different churches to receive various revelations to help lead a nation. In the meantime, many churches were being blessed, experiencing the presence of integrity brought by these elite visitors from a caliber of society where integrity is rarely found. This presence was a result of the dignitary's service to the Lord in the midst of the absence of integrity.
I heard the King of kings say, "When you begin to see the kings of the earth and high government officials and the upper class being drawn into My house, honor these kings and their high positions and know that the time is soon when the King of kings and Lord of lords will soon appear in all of His glory in His house. Get used to honoring those in high places and those who are gifted with talent that astounds the world. Continue to pray, believing for their souls.
"I have said that 'not many mighty and not many noble are called... I didn't say "not any" I said "not many!"' I have said. 'It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than a rich man to enter into the kingdom of heaven," but I didn't say it was impossible for Him to enter.
The pendulum is beginning to swing. It will touch now, not only the poor and lowly, but also the rich, the famous and those in high places.
I hear God say, "All arise... the kings, queens, princes and rulers of nations are coming in on this next move."


text:
\documentclass[12pt,letterpaper,twoside]{article}
\usepackage{amsmath}
\usepackage{amsfonts}
\usepackage{appendix}
\usepackage[figurewithin=section,tablewithin=section]{caption}
\usepackage[usenames,dvipsnames]{color}
\usepackage{graphicx}
\usepackage{longtable}
\usepackage{rotating}
%\usepackage{verbatim}
\usepackage[pdftex,bookmarksopen=false]{hyperref}
%\usepackage[pdftex]{hyperref}
\hypersetup{pdfauthor={John Sibert}}
\hypersetup{pdfsubject={Assessment Model of MHI YFT Stocks}}
\hypersetup{pdftitle={Assessment model of Main Hawaiian Islands
Yellowfin Tuna Population}}
\hypersetup{pdfkeywords={yellowfin,state space, biomass transfer, model,Hawaii}}

\newcommand\doublespacing{\baselineskip=1.6\normalbaselineskip}
\newcommand\singlespacing{\baselineskip=1.0\normalbaselineskip}
\renewcommand\deg[1]{$^\circ$#1}
\newcommand\SD{SEAPODYM}
\newcommand\MFCL{MULTIFAN-CL}
\newcommand\ADMB{ADModel Builder}
\newcommand\SPC{Secretariat of the Pacific Community}
\newcommand\WCPO{Western Central Pacific Ocean}
\newcommand\SSAP{Skipjack Survey and Assessment Programme}
\newcommand\RTTP{Regional Tuna Tagging Programme}
\newcommand\PTTP{Pacific Tuna Tagging Programme}
\newcommand\FAD{fish aggregating device}
\newcommand\ADRM{advection-diffusion-reaction model}
\newcommand\help[1]{\color{Magenta}{\it #1 }\normalcolor}
\newcommand\widebar[1]{\overline{#1}}
\newcommand\EEZ{Exclusive Economic Zone}

\newcommand\None{{N_{1,1}}}
\newcommand\Ntwo{{N_{2,1}}}
\newcommand\Nsum{{N_{1,1}+N_{2,1}}}
\newcommand\peryr{yr$^{-1}$}
\newcommand\prevN[1]{{#1_{t-\Delta t}}}
\newcommand\nextN[1]{{#1_t}}

\title{Feasibility of devloping a stock assessment model for Main Hawaiian Islands Yellowfin Tuna
Fishery}

\author{
John Sibert\thanks{sibert@hawaii.edu}\\
Joint Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Research\\
University of Hawai'i at Manoa\\
Honolulu, HI  96822 U.S.A.\\[0.125in]
\date{\today}
}

\pagestyle{myheadings}
\markboth{John Sibert\hfil MHI Yellowfin Assessment Model Feasibility}
{MHI Yellowfin Assessment Model Feasibility\hfil John Sibert}

\begin{document}
% amsmath package
\numberwithin{equation}{section}
\numberwithin{figure}{section}
\maketitle

%\doublespacing

\begin{abstract}
The yellowfin tuna fishery in the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI)
is an important commercial and recreational fishery and
has a documented 65 year history. Management of this fishery is
hampered by lack of stock assessment results specific to the MHI. The
feasibility of developing a state-space Schafer model with emigration,
external forcing, Bayesian constraints, and robust estimation
specifically for the MHI was investigated. The model is feasible, but
parameter estimation is hindered by possible lack of an exploitation
signal in the data.
\end{abstract}

\section{Introduction}
The Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI) yellowfin tuna (YFT) fishery is
a small, but very important important fishery within the State of
Hawaii, and sustainable management of this
fishery is a local issue that deserves scientific support.
The documented history of the YFT fishery begins in
1949, predating statehood by 10 years, and is possibly a longer catch
history than that of the Japanese distant water longline fishery.
The MHI YFT population is, of course,
embedded in the much larger pan-Pacific stock, which also has a long
exploitation history and is the subject of on-going stock assessment
efforts by the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC).
Many local fishermen in Hawaii
believe that the MHI supports a ``resident'' yellowfin population
which spawns and resides in the MHI.
Some scientific observations are consistent with this belief.
Recent tagging and tracking
studies show that the rate of exchange between the MHI population
and the larger stock is low (Itano and Holland 2000).
Analysis of YFT otoliths sampled from
throughout the Pacific conclude that 90\% or more of the MHI
population was spawned and reared in the MHI (Wells et al 2012).

Contemporary fisheries management often depends on results of stock
assessment models to establish quantitative fishery reference points
such as ``acceptable biological catch''.
Such models do not exist for the MHI YFT population, but
it is not clear that creating stock assessment model
for a single component of a shared stock is feasible.
The purpose of the work described in this report is to asses the
feasibility of developing a stock assessment model for the MHI YFT
population that includes emigration and immigration of biomass and a
constraint on the proportion of ``resident'' biomass.

\section{Methods}
\subsection{Data}
\begin{figure}
\begin{center}
%\includegraphics[height=0.5\textheight]{./graphics/5_gear_catch_history_a.pdf}
\includegraphics[width=1.0\textwidth]{./graphics/5_gear_catch_history_a.pdf}
\caption{\label{fig:annualTS}
Annual yellowfin catch in metric tonnes by fisheries
operating in the Main Hawaiian Islands from combined HDAR and NOAA data.
}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

Two basic sources of catch data were used in this analysis:
quarterly time series of YFT catch weights reported to (1)
Hawaii Department of Aquatic Resources (HDAR) for several fishing
gears from 1949 to 2014 and (2)
to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National
Marine Fisheries Service for the Hawaii-based longline fleet
from 1995 through 2013 under the federally mandated log book program.  The quarterly data from HDAR show clear seasonal variation and include
occasional zero observations between quarters with substantial
reported catch (Figure~\ref{fig:hdarTS}).
Whether these seasonal fluctuations and zero
catch observations represent changes in abundance, changes in
catchability, or changes in
fishery participation is unknown. In preliminary tests, the model appeared to
interpret catch variability as variability in stock abundance
predicting large fluctuations in biomass around the isolated zero
observations. Therefore, the quarterly data were aggregated by year
and used for all further model runs; see Figure~\ref{fig:annualTS}.
Statistical properties of the catch data and the method of joining the
HDAR and NOAA longline time series are elaborated in
Appendix~\ref{sec:data}.

\begin{figure}[t]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=1.0\textwidth]{./graphics/annual_region_2_biomass.pdf}
\caption{\label{fig:r2biomass}
Annual estimated biomass trends in MFCL Region 2 from the 2014 WCPFC YFT
stock assessment, Davies et al. 2014.
}
\end{center}
\end{figure}
A biomass exchange model presupposes a source and sink for biomass
exchange.
Model estimates of yellowfin biomass by \MFCL\ (MFCL)
from the most recent WCPFC stock assessment (Davies et al 2014)
provide the most convenient estimates of immigrant biomass.
The MHI straddle the boundary between MFCL regions 2 and 4.
Region 2 is arguably
more similar ecologically to the MHI than the more equatorial region
4, and the population in region 4 is much larger and exhibits a greater level
of depletion than the population in region 2, Figure~\ref{fig:MFCLregionB}.
The quarterly estimates for
region 2 were aggregated by year and used as the immigrant source for
model testing, Figure~\ref{fig:r2biomass}.
Since the MFCL assessment uses data for the period 1952 through 2012,
catch data outside of this period were excluded from this analysis.

\vspace{2ex}
Further properties of the data are presented in Appendix~\ref{sec:data}.

\subsection{Model}
An age-aggregated model was developed in preference to a more complex
age-structured model for examining the feasibility of a MHI YFT
assessment model.
The principle model assumptions are:
\begin{enumerate}
\item The Pacific Ocean is divided into two regions:
MHI (region 1) and elsewhere (region 2).
\item Fish immigrate from region 2 to region 1, and mix completely.
Immigrant fish are indistinguishable from ``local'' fish,
and the two components interact identically with the fishing gear in
region.
\item Fish emigrate from region 1 to region 2, but emigrant fish have
no effect on region 2 population dynamics, i.e., region 2 is an infinite
sink. Emigration is considered to be a source of mortality analogous
to ``natural'' mortality.
\item Immigration into the MHI is dependent on the
biomass of the yellowfin population outside of the MHI as estimated by
some other model, e.g., \MFCL\ (MFCL) or \SD. In the present model,
MFCL region 2 is assumed to be the source of immigrants (see previous
paragraph).
\item The fishery comprises several gear types or fleets, each
characterized by a distinct fishing mortality time series.
Fishing practices have evolved continuously over the 66 year history
of the fishery making estimation of satisfactory measures of fishing
effort difficult and contentious..
The evolution of fishing mortality for each fleet over time is
represented by a random walk,
i.e., the fishing mortality in the current time step is equal
to the fishing mortality in the previous time step plus a random
deviation.
\item Ninety percent of the fish resident in region 1 are assumed to
be locally spawned and reared (Wells et al 2012).
This assumptions requires that the model to be able to track
the size of both the local and the immigrant subpopulations separately so
that the proportion local can be computed. It is
further assumed that this ratio has been nearly invariant since 1952.
\end{enumerate}

Full derivations of and all model equations arising from these
assumptions are presented in Appendix~\ref{sec:models}. The resulting
model is something like a state-space Schafer model with emigration,
external forcing, Bayesian constraints, and robust estimation.
State-space models separate variability in the biological
processes in the system (transition model)
from errors in observing features of interest
in the system (observation model).
The general form of the transition equation is
\begin{equation}
\alpha_t=T(\alpha_{t-1}) + \eta_t
\end{equation}
where the function $T$ embodies the stock dynamics mediating the
development of the state at time $t$ from the state at the previous
time with random process error, $\eta$.
The general form of the observation equation is
\begin{equation}
x_t = O(\alpha_t) + \varepsilon_t
\end{equation}
where the function $O$ describes the measurement process with
error $\varepsilon$ in observing the population.

Let $\None$ equal the biomass of fish originating in region~1
and residing in region~1
and $\Ntwo$ equal the biomass of fish originating in region~2
but residing in region~1.
The following pair of simultaneous non-linear differential equations
describe the dynamics of the two subpopulations (see
Appendix~\ref{sec:models} for details).
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{eqn:coupledschaeferq}
\frac{d\None}{dt}&=&\None\Big[r\Big(1-\frac{\None}{K}\Big)
-F - T_{12}\Big] - (1-q)2r\frac{\None\Ntwo}{K}\nonumber\\
\\
\frac{d\Ntwo}{dt}&=&\Ntwo\Big[r\Big(1-\frac{\Ntwo}{K}\Big)
-F - T_{12}\Big] - q2r\frac{\None\Ntwo}{K} + T_{21}\nonumber
\end{eqnarray}
where $r$ is the logistic growth rate per year,
$K$ is the asymptotic biomass,
$F$ is the total fishing mortality in region~1, $T_{12}$
is the emigration rate from region~1 to region~2, and $T_{21}$
is the rate of immigration of biomass from region~2 to region~1.
The nonlinear mortality term $2r\frac{\None\Ntwo}{K}$ is a
consequence of assuming
two subpopulations constrained by the same logistic process.
The parameter, $q$, apportions the effects of the nonlinear
mortality term between the two subpopulation.

\section{Results}
\begin{figure}
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ll}
~~~~~~~~~A &~~~~~~~~~B\\
\includegraphics[width=0.5\textwidth]{./graphics/sim_q48_NNts.pdf}&
\includegraphics[width=0.5\textwidth]{./graphics/sim_q52_NNts.pdf}\\
~~~~~~~~~C &~~~~~~~~~D\\
\includegraphics[width=0.5\textwidth]{./graphics/sim_q48r_NNts.pdf}&
\includegraphics[width=0.5\textwidth]{./graphics/sim_q52r_NNts.pdf}\\
\end{tabular}
\caption{\label{fig:simNN}
Simulated biomass trends with two values of the parameter $q$ and two
levels of process error.
Light blue lines indicate estimated $\None$, $\Ntwo$, and $\Nsum$
biomass in metric tonnes.
The dashed blue line is the estimated equilibrium biomass, $K$.
Purple line is the estimated immigrant biomass $T_{21}$,
Red line indicates estimated proportion local, $\bar{p}$;
dashed red line indicates $\bar{p}=0.9$.
Panels A and C, $q=0.48$; panels B and D, $q=0.52$.
Panels C and D repeat panels A and B with a random normal errors on
$\None$ and $\Ntwo$ with standard deviations of 0.01 and 0.05
respectively.
}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

The general behavior of the model system is shown in
Figure~\ref{fig:simNN}, emphasizing the importance of $q$ in
maintaining the stability of two subpopulations.
For values of $q>0.5$, the local population, $\None$ is stable,
$\Ntwo$ decreases, and the proportion local remains near 0.9.
For values of $q<0.5$, the local population, $\None$ decreases,
$\Ntwo$ increases, and the proportion local dips below 0.9.
This same dependency on $q$ is also illustrated more generally in
Figure~\ref{fig:NNphase}.

Initial testing of the estimation procedure gave mixed results.
The model is sensitive to initial parameter guesses. Some
combinations of initial values cause the numerical estimation
procedure to terminate abnormally with the infamous ADMB error message
{\tt ``Matrix not positive definite in Ln\_det\_choleski''.}
Nevertheless, the procedure arrives at a
``solution'' for some combinations of initial estimates.

\begin{figure}
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./graphics/est_catchB29.pdf}
\caption{\label{fig:estC29}
Estimated catch by fleet in metric tons.
The dark green dots indicate observed catch
and light green lines indicate predicted catch,
}
\end{center}
\end{figure}
Observed and predicted catches are shown in Figure~\ref{fig:estC29}.
The random-walk representation of fishing mortality
produces a credible time series predicting catches very accurately for
all fleets, except for the Aku Boat fleet.

\begin{figure}[h!]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./graphics/est_popB29.pdf}
\caption{\label{fig:estB}
Estimated biomass trends.
Light blue lines indicate estimated $\None$, $\Ntwo$, and $\Nsum$
biomass in metric tonnes.
The dashed blue line is the estimated equilibrium biomass, $K$.
Purple line is the estimated immigrant biomass $T_{21}$,
Red line indicates estimated proportion local, $\bar{p}$;
dashed red line indicates $\bar{p}=0.9$.
}
\end{center}
\end{figure}
Predicted biomass trajectories are shown in
Figure~\ref{fig:estB}. The population appears to begin above
equilibrium and to decline to near equilibrium within two years.
The size of the $\Ntwo$ population drops to near zero over the 61 year
estimation period.
In consequence, the proportion local begins slightly below 0.9,
subsequently fluctuates around 0.9 and then increases.
The increase in $q$ appears to coincide with the steep decline in the
immigration rate of biomass into the MHI ($T_{21}$) in the late 1990s.

\begin{table}
\caption{\label{tab:testrun}
Model ``estimates''. Initial values of model parameters and
final values just prior to program exit with
{\tt ``Function minimizer: Step size  too small -- ialph=1''}.
Dashes (---) indicate that the variable was constrained to be constant at
its initial value, i.e., not estimated.
}
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{lrr}
\hline
Vatiable & Initial Value & Final Value\\
\hline
\hline
$r$ & 1.20&  1.29\\
$K$ & 150,000 & 149,000 \\
$T_{12}$ & 0.01 & 0.00999\\
$T^*_{21}$& 0.002 & 0.00202\\
$q$ & 0.54 & 0.525\\
\hline
$\sigma_\eta$ & 0.1 & 0.0883\\
$\sigma_\xi$ & 0.3 & 0.672\\
$\sigma_\varepsilon$ & 1.0 & 0.0945\\
$a_1$ & 0.07 & ---\\
$a_2$ & 0.07 & ---\\
$a_3$ & 0.07 & ---\\
$a_4$ & 0.07 & ---\\
$a_5$ & 0.07 & ---\\
\hline
$\bar{p}$ & 0.9 & ---\\
$\sigma_{\bar{p}}$ & 0.8 & ---\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\end{table}

Values of the model parameters just prior to termination of the
program are compared to their initial values in
Table~\ref{tab:testrun}.
Some model parameters do not change substantially from their initial
values during the estimation procedure.
The population dynamics parameters,
$r$, $K$, $T_{12}$, $T^*_{21}$, and $q$, are the most important for
stock assessment, but do not change much.
Of these, $q$, the parameter apportioning
the non-linear mortality term between the two subpopulations,
changes the most.

The variance parameters are of no particular interest and exist only
to represent variability in population dynamics and errors in
observation. These ``nuisance'' appear to be reasonably sensitive to the
data.

\section{Discussion}

The age-aggregated approach using a logistic model with emigration and
immigration shows sufficient promise to continue model development.
The general behavior of the model system (Figure~\ref{fig:simNN} and
~\ref{fig:NNts}) appropriately describes a small persistent population
interacting with a much larger one.
The efficacy of the random walk
representation of fishing mortality is particularly encouraging, and
avoids debates about changes in catchability associated with
changes in fishing efficiency.
The proportion of local fish in the system is sensitive to model
parameters and can effectively be constrained to be near the empirically
determined value of 0.9. Coupling immigration to the output of
some other model is relatively trivial to implement and is
sufficiently flexible to use output from alternative models.

Unfortunately, population dynamics parameters, with the possible
exception of $q$, do not appear to be estimatable. Lack of
sensitivity could be due to several causes: the model is completely
ill-posed, the code is incorrect, there is no signal in data, or some
combination of these. Inspection of catch trends
(Figure~\ref{fig:annualTS}) does not reveal any obvious signs of stock
depletion and recovery. Estimation of population dynamics parameters
in a lightly exploited stock is a well-known problem in stock
assessment.

Figure~\ref{fig:NNphase} suggests that the model equations
(\ref{eqn:coupledschaeferq}) have non-trivial equilibria for certain
parameter values.
The relationships between of the parameters $q$, $T^*_{21}$,
and $\bar{p}$ are not clear.
Estimation of fisheries reference point would be simpler if
an analytic expression for the equilibrium point were available.
Finite difference approximations of logistic population models are
notoriously unstable under certain circumstances. An analytical
solution of equation~\ref{eqn:coupledschaeferq} would be of great
help.
Further mathematical analysis is called for.

\vspace{4ex}
%\clearpage
\noindent {\bf Acknowledgements.}
This work was funded by the Western Pacific Regional Fisheries
Managment Council. I thank the Council for its generous support and
Council Staff Paul Dalzell and Eric Kingma for encouraging me to
actually take on this challenging project and for their on-going
collaboration.
Thanks to Mr. David Itano for sharing insights into the small-boat
fisheries in Hawaii.
Thanks to Mr. Reginald Kokubun of the Hawaii Division of Aquatic
Resources for supplying catch report data from the HDAR commercial
fisheries data base.
Thanks to Mr. Keith Bigelow and Ms. Karen Sender of NOAA Pacific
Island Fisheries Science Center for supplying logbook reporting data and
weight-frequency data from the PIFSC data base.
Thanks also to Dr. John Hampton of the Secretariat of the Pacific
Community, Oceanic Fisheries Programme, for making available
MULTICAN-CL output files from the latest Western and Central Pacific
Fisheries Commission yellowfin tuna stock assessment, and to Mr. Nick
Davies for sharing R scripts and advice to decode the MFCL output files.

\section*{References}
{\parindent=0cm \small
\everypar={\hangindent=2em \hangafter=1}\par
%\doublespacing
%Adam, M. S., J. Sibert, D. Itano and K. Holland. 2003. Dynamics of
%bigeye (Thunnus obesus) and yellowfin tuna (T. albacares) in Hawaii's
%pelagic fishery: analysis of tagging data with a bulk transfer model
%incorporating size specific attrition. Fishery Bulletin 101(2):
%215-228.

Davies, N., S. Harley, J. Hampton, S. McKechnie. 2014. Stock
assessment of yellowfin tuna in the western and central pacific ocean.
WCPFC-SC10-2014/SA-WP-04.

Fournier, D. A., H.J. Skaug, J. Ancheta, J.Sibert, J. Ianelli,
A. Magnusson, M. N. Maunder, A. Nielsen. 2012. AD Model Builder:
using automatic differentiation for forstatistical inference of highly
parameterized complex nonlinear models. Opti-mization Methods and
Software 27, 233–249.

Itano, D., K. Holland. 2000.  Movement and vulnerability of bigeye
(Thunnus obesus) and yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in relation to
FADs and natural aggregation points.Aquat. Living Resour. 13: 213-223.

Kleiber, P., J. Hampton, N. Davies, S. Hoyle, D. Fournier. 2014.
MULTIFAN-CL User's Guide

Nielsen, A., C. Berg. 2014. Estimation of time-varying selectivity
in stock assessments using state-space models. Fisheries Research
158:96-101.

Quinn, T, R. Deriso. 1999. Quantitative fish dynamics. Oxford
University Press, New York.

Skaug, H., Fournier, D., 2006. Automatic approximation of the marginal
likelihood in non-Gaussian hierarchical models. Computational
Statistics \& Data Analysis 51, 699–709.

Wells, D., J. Rooker, D. Itano. 2012.  Nursery origin of yellowfin
tuna in the Hawaiian Islands. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 461:187-196.
\par}

\clearpage

\section*{Appendix}
\appendix

\section{Catch Time Series}
\label{sec:data}
%The Hawaii longline fishery has a long history and changed radically
%in the 1990s when new vessels entered the fleet and fishing gear was
%modernized.
%The HDAR longline data covers the period 1949 through 2001 and does
%not differentiate between ``deep'' and ``shallow'' sets.
%The NOAA longline data covers the period 1995 through 2013 and reports deep
%and shallow set set separately.
%Thus the period of most radical change is included in time series.

%[1] Aku boat          Bottom/inshore HL Longline          Other
%[5] Troll             Tuna HL           Casting           Hybrid
%[9] Shortline         Vertical line

% statistics of catch time series first differences
%TS                 Mean     S. D.
%OffshoreHL  0.017659002 0.5994987
%Troll       0.018124404 0.7051216
%Longline    0.002425213 0.7782023
%InshoreHL  -0.002342312 0.6935796
%AkuBoat    -0.004970204 1.0908600

The HDAR data comprise catch reports for the following gear
categories:
``Aku boat'', ``Bottom/inshore HL'', ``Longline'',  ``Troll'', ``Tuna
HL'', ``Casting'', ``Hybrid'',  ``Shortline'', ``Other'', and
``Vertical line''.
For this analysis catches by ``Casting'', ``Hybrid'',
``Shortline'', ``Other'', and ``Vertical line'' are combined into a new
category, ``Misc''. The ``Misc''
catches are highest after year 2000,
but comprise a very small proportion of the catch.
The catch time series for the HDAR data are shown in
Figure~\ref{fig:hdarTS}. These time
series exhibit marked annual cycles suggesting a strong seasonal
signal in the catches by all gears.
Some series also contain sustained periods of zero catch which
document the development and subsequent shift away from a specific
gear type. It is assumed that these declines in catches represent a
``collapse'' of a fishery due more to social and economic factors than
to a decline of stock.
Some time series are punctuated by brief episodes (one or two quarters in
length) of zero catches. Again, it is assumed that these zero catches
are not caused by low stock levels.

The longline fishery has changed drastically over time. In the late
1940s, it was a relatively small fishery using traditional
tarred rope gear making relatively shallow sets.
Participation in this fishery generally declined from 1950 to
late 1980s. In the 1990s, the longline
fishery expanded rapidly with the introduction of US fishing boats
from the Atlantic ocean using modern monofilament longline gear
capable of making both deep and shallow sets.

Figure~\ref{fig:hdarTS} also displays the first order differences
between successive quarters. This statistic emphasizes the seasonal
periodicity of all fishing gear and helps to identify potential anomalies in
the data such as changes in reporting protocols.

The partial autocorrelations within each time
series are shown in Figure~\ref{fig:catchPACF}. These correlations
confirm the quarterly periodicity  of the catch time series.
The catch time series for Inshore HL, Longline, Troll, and Tuna HL show
similar patters with
significant positive autocorrelations at lags of 1, 3 and 4 quarters.
The autocorrelation pattern appears to be somewhat different for the Aku
boat catch time series.

NOAA began to collect data from the longline fleet under a federally
mandated logbook program in 1990, and in 1995, began to distinguish
deep and shallow sets in the data. The HDAR data do not
distinguish between deep and shallow sets.
Figure~\ref{fig:hdarnoaaLLTS} shows the correspondence between the
HDAR and NOAA time series. The combined deep plus shallow catches from
NOAA align fairly well with the overlapping HDAR data. The simple
average of the HDAR data with the combined NOAA deep plus shallow data
appears to have roughly the same autocorrelation structure as the
constituent time series, Figure~\ref{fig:LLpartialacf}.
Data are also available from NOAA for the period 1990-1995, but
have not yet been included in this analysis.

Histograms of first differences of the logarithm of catch time series
are shown in Figure~\ref{fig:diff1histo}. These differences are
clearly not normally distributed, indicating that a robust catch
likelihood might be useful.

\begin{figure}
\begin{center}
%\includegraphics[height=0.8\textheight]{./graphics/hdar_catch_history.pdf}
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./graphics/hdar_catch_history.pdf}
\caption{\label{fig:hdarTS}
Yellowfin catch in metric tonnes by principle fisheries operating in
the Main Hawaiian Islands from the HDAR data.
The dotted red line superimposed on each time series is the difference in
catch between successive quarters.
The red tick marks on the abscissa indicate quarters where reported
catches were zero.
}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}
\begin{center}
%\includegraphics[height=0.8\textheight]{./graphics/partial_acf.pdf}
\includegraphics[width=0.8\textwidth]{./graphics/partial_acf.pdf}
\caption{\label{fig:catchPACF}
Partial autocorrelation coefficients of the HDAR catch time series. The
dashed blue lines indicate approximate 95\% confidence limits of the
correlations.}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}
\begin{center}
%\includegraphics[height=0.8\textheight]{./graphics/hdar_noaa_LL_ts.pdf}
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./graphics/hdar_noaa_LL_ts.pdf}
\caption{\label{fig:hdarnoaaLLTS}
Comparison between HDAR and NOAA longline time series. The upper panel
shows the NOAA deep and shallow set data superimposed on the HDAR
data. The lower panel shows the time series produced by a simple
average of the HDAR data and the sum of the NOAA deep and shallow
catches.}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}
\begin{center}
%\includegraphics[height=0.8\textheight]{./graphics/LL_partial_acf.pdf}
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./graphics/LL_partial_acf.pdf}
\caption{\label{fig:LLpartialacf}
Partial autocorrelations within the NOAA and combined time
series. F refers to the HDAR longline data, D refers to the NOAA deep
set data, S to the shallow set data,
DS to the combined deep and shallow set data, and Mean to the average
of the HDAR and NOAA deep plus shallow.
}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}
\begin{center}
%\includegraphics[height=0.8\textheight]{./graphics/first_difference_histograms.pdf}
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./graphics/first_difference_histograms.pdf}
\caption{\label{fig:diff1histo}
Histograms of first differences of the logarithm of catch time series.
The blue line is
a normal distribution with the same mean and standard deviation as the
first differences. The red line is the equivalent standard Cauchy distribution.}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}
\begin{center}
%\includegraphics[height=0.8\textheight]{./graphics/MFCL_region_biomass.pdf}
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{./graphics/MFCL_region_biomass.pdf}
\caption{\label{fig:MFCLregionB}
Quarterly biomass trends estimated in MFCL Regions 2 and 4 from the
2104 WCPFC YFT stock assessment, Davies et al. 2014.
}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

\section{Model development}
\label{sec:models}
Let $\None$ equal the biomass of fish originating in region 1
and residing in region 1
and $\Ntwo$ equal the biomass of fish originating in region 2
but residing in region 1.
The total biomass of fish residing in region 1 is
$\Nsum$, and the dynamics of the population in region 1 is represented
as a modified Schaefer model:
\begin{equation}
\frac{d}{dt}\big(\Nsum\big)=\big(\Nsum\big)\Big[r\Big(1-\frac{\Nsum}{K}\Big)-F-T_{12}\Big]+T_{21}
\label{eqn:logistic}
\end{equation}
where $r$ is the logistic growth rate per year, $K$ is the
asymptotic biomass,
$F$ is the total fishing mortality in region 1, $T_{12}$
is the emigration rate from region 1 to region 2, and $T_{21}$
is the rate of immigration of biomass from region~2 to region~1.

An equivalent differential equation could be devised for the dynamics of
fish residing in region 2
(i.e., $\frac{d}{dt}\big(N_{2,2}+N_{1,2}\big)$), but
the dynamics of the fish population in region 2 is external to this
model. $T_{21}$ can be considered to be a form of population ``forcing''
by the larger stock in which the MHI population is embedded. $T_{21}$
could be a prediction from other models, such as \MFCL\ or \SD,
in a sort of ``off-line'' coupling.

The appearance of
$\Nsum$ in the numerator of the logistic term reflects the assumption
that the population dynamics of immigrant fish depends on
the population dynamics in region 1. This assumption leads to an
important non-linearity in the model that predicts potential
overwhelming of one stock by the other.

The proportion of ``local'' fish $p = \frac{\None}{\Nsum}$ is an
important constraint, and it is necessary to model the two
subpopulations separately.
Equation~\ref{eqn:logistic} can be expanded and rearranged to become
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{eqn:coupledschaefer}
\frac{d}{dt}\big(\Nsum\big) &=&\None\Big[r\Big(1-\frac{\None}{K}\Big)
-F - T_{12}\Big] \nonumber\\
&+&\Ntwo\Big[r\Big(1-\frac{\Ntwo}{K}\Big)
-F - T_{12}\Big]  + T_{21}\\
&-& 2r\frac{\None\Ntwo}{K}\nonumber
\end{eqnarray}
The non-linear term, $2r\frac{\None\Ntwo}{K}$, in
equation~\ref{eqn:coupledschaefer} represents the reduction in biomass
of one population by the presence of the other population.
In order to represent
the two populations by separate equations, this
nonlinear term must be appropriately apportioned.
A new parameter, $q$, is introduced to accomplish the apportionment,
leading to a set of simultaneous non-linear differential equations for
the components of the population inhabiting region~1.
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{eqn:coupledschaeferqa}
\frac{d\None}{dt}&=&\None\Big[r\Big(1-\frac{\None}{K}\Big)
-F - T_{12}\Big] - (1-q)2r\frac{\None\Ntwo}{K}\nonumber\\
\\
\frac{d\Ntwo}{dt}&=&\Ntwo\Big[r\Big(1-\frac{\Ntwo}{K}\Big)
-F - T_{12}\Big] - q2r\frac{\None\Ntwo}{K} + T_{21}\nonumber
\end{eqnarray}

The log transformed equivalent of equation~\ref{eqn:coupledschaeferqa} is
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{eqn:coupledlogschaefer}
\frac{d\log(\None)}{dt}&=&r\Big(1-\frac{\None}{K}\Big) -F - T_{12} -
(1-q)2r\frac{\Ntwo}{K}\nonumber\\
\\
\frac{d\log(\Ntwo)}{dt}&=&r\Big(1-\frac{\Ntwo}{K}\Big) -F - T_{12} -
q2r\frac{\None}{K} + \frac{T_{21}}{\Ntwo}\nonumber
\end{eqnarray}

{\bf Transition Equation $T(\alpha_{t-1})$.}
The state space transition equation for the two components of the MHI
population is developed by solving
equations \ref{eqn:coupledlogschaefer} by finite differences
with explicit time stepping and adding process error
terms.
\begin{eqnarray}
\label{eqn:finitecoupledlogschaefer}
\log \None_t &=& \log \None_{t-\Delta t}\nonumber\\
             &+&\Delta t\bigg(r\Big(1-\frac{\None_{t-\Delta t}}{K}\Big)
-\sum_{g=1}^n F_{g,t-\Delta t} - T_{12} - (1-q)2r\frac{\Ntwo_{t-\Delta
t}}{K}\bigg)+\eta_t\nonumber\\
\\ \log \Ntwo_t &=& \log \Ntwo_{t-\Delta t}\nonumber\\
             &+&\Delta t\bigg(r\Big(1-\frac{\Ntwo_{t-\Delta t}}{K}\Big)
-\sum_{g=1}^n F_{g,t-\Delta t} - T_{12} - q2r\frac{\None_{t-\Delta t}}{K}
     +\frac{T_{{21}_{t-\Delta t}}}{\Ntwo_{t-\Delta t}}\bigg)+\eta_t\nonumber
\end{eqnarray}
where $\eta_t \sim N(0,\sigma_\eta)$
expresses process errors for both populations.

{\bf Behavior of model system.}
Efforts to derive an analytical expression to determine
a meaningful equilibrium for equations~\ref{eqn:coupledlogschaefer}
have not been fruitful.
Figure~\ref{fig:NNphase} shows phase plane diagrams for several
combinations of model parameters assuming constant $K$ and
$T_{21}$. Apparently the system tends towards
equilibrium with both $0 < \None \le K$ and $0 < \Ntwo \le K$ for some
combinations of model parameters.
The proportion of ``local'' fish, $p = \frac{\None}{\Nsum}$, depends on
the assumed value of $q$. For values of $q < 0.5$, the equilibrium
value of $p$ is less than 0.9. The functional relationship, if any,
between $p$ and $q$ is not clear, but it would appear that $q$ must be
be greater than $\simeq 0.5$ to achieve $p=0.9$.

The evolution of the model system in
equation~\ref{eqn:finitecoupledlogschaefer} with time is shown in
Figure~\ref{fig:NNts}. The system starts with $\None + \Ntwo = K$ and
$p=0.9$. After a few time steps the population decreases to reflect
influence of immigrants and the onset of fishing.
Towards the end of the simulation period the proportion local drops
below 0.9 in response to the decrease in the size of the immigrant
population.

\begin{figure}
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=1.00\textwidth]{./graphics/qcomp_4.pdf}
\caption{\label{fig:NNphase}
Phase plane for equation \ref{eqn:coupledlogschaefer}. Arrows represent
the trajectory of the system for different combinations of $\None$ and
$\Ntwo$; dashed red  line indicates $K = 1$; dashed green lines indicate
different values of $p$. The thick light green line indicates $p=0.9$.
Values of $q$ and $T_{21}$ are shown in each panel.
Other parameter values: $r=0.3, K=1.0, F = 0.007, T_{12}=0.01$.
}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=1.00\textwidth]{./graphics/sim_default_NNts.pdf}
\caption{\label{fig:NNts}
Behavior of equations \ref{eqn:finitecoupledlogschaefer} over time with
forcing from MFCL region 2 biomass (Figure~\ref{fig:MFCLregionB}) and
fishing mortality by fleet set proportional to observed catch.
Light blue lines indicate population components as indicated;
dashed blue line indicates $K$;
solid red line indicates the proportion local, $p$;
dashed red line line indicates $p=0.9$.
Other parameter values: $q=0.54, r=0.3, K=200000, T12=0.01, T21=0.002$.
}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

{\bf Fishing Mortality.}
Fishing mortality is
modeled explicitly as a random walk
without recourse to effort standardization or
estimation of catchability coefficients. The logarithm of fishing
mortality is assumed to
follow a random walk with normal increments, i.e.,
\begin{equation}
\log F_{g,t} = \log F_{g,t-1} + \xi_t;\quad \xi_t\sim
N(0,\sigma^2_\xi) \label{eqn:Fwalk}
\end{equation}
where  $\sigma^2_\xi$ is the variance of the fishing
mortality random walk.

%Parameterization of $T_{21}$
{\bf Population Forcing.}
Immigration of stock from region 2 to region 1 is a
form of forcing whereby events outside of the model influence the
model dynamics. The term $T_{{21}_t}$ in
equation~\ref{eqn:finitecoupledlogschaefer}
is the biomass immigrating
into the MHI stock at each time step.
The likely candidates for forcing are MFCL regions 2 and 4, both of
which overlap the MHI. The estimated biomass trajectories for these
two regions are shown in Figure~\ref{fig:MFCLregionB}.
For testing purposes,
I assume that the source of immigrants is MFCL region 2, so that
\begin{equation}
T_{{21}_t} = T^*_{21}\cdot B_{2,t}
\end{equation}
where $B_{2,t}$ is biomass in region 2 at time $t$ taken from the MFCL output file
{\tt plot-12.par.rep} from the 2014 WCPFC stock assessment
(Davies et al 2014). $T^*_{21}$ is the proportion on
$B_{2,t}$ which migrates at each time step.

{\bf Asymptotic biomass.}
$K$ is the asymptotic biomass in a population growing according to
logistic dynamics. It is the population size to which the population
tends at equilibrium and is often dubbed ``carrying capacity''.
It is not clear that a coupled logistic model such as equation~
\ref{eqn:logistic} has a non-trivial equilibrium.
Given that the model forcing $B_{r,t}$ is not constant and that the
fishery is developing in a period of profound change in the oceans,
it is difficult to justify the assumption that the equilibrium
population size, $K$, has been constant for over 65 years. An
alternative parameterization for $K$ is to assume a random walk, for
example,
\begin{equation}
\log K_t = \log K_{t-1} + \omega_t;\quad \omega_t\sim
N(0,\sigma^2_\omega) \label{eqn:Kwalk}
\end{equation}
where  $\sigma^2_\omega$ is the variance of the
asymptotic population size random walk.
This parameterization was implemented in computer code, but not extensively
tested.

{\bf Observation Equation, $O(\alpha)$.}
Predicted catch in region 1 is the product of fishing mortality
and the total population in region, $\None+\Ntwo$.
Thus the state-space observation model predicting catch in the region 1
under this model is
\begin{equation}
\log C_{g,t} = \log \Biggl(F_{g,t}\cdot\Bigl(\frac{\None_{t-\Delta t}+\None_t}{2}
                           +\frac{\Ntwo_{t-\Delta
t}+\Ntwo_t}{2}\Bigr)\Biggr) + \varepsilon_t
\label{eqn:obs}
\end{equation}
where the total population in region 1 is the sum of the average
population over the time step (Quinn and Deriso, 1999), and
$\varepsilon_t$ is a robust likelihood given by
\begin{equation}
\varepsilon_t \sim (1-a_g)*N(0,\sigma^2_\varepsilon)+a_g*C(0,\sigma^2_\varepsilon).
\end{equation}
C is the standard Cauchy probability density and $a_g$ is a
fleet-specifc proportion of ``contamination'' by the fat-tailed Cauchy
distribution. In practice $a_g = 0.07\; g=1\ldots n$.

{\bf Constraint on ``Proportion Local''.}
Proportion local is defined as $p = \frac{\None}{\Nsum}$. The logit
transformed proportion local, $L(p)$, is assumed to be normally
distributed around a mean value, $L(\bar{p})$.
\begin{equation}
\label{eqn:LpropL}
L(p)\sim N(L(\bar{p}),\sigma^2_{L(p)}).
\end{equation}
$p$ is generally assumed to be approximately $0.9$. By varying the
value of the variance, $\sigma^2_{L(p)}$, $p$ can be made as
close to $0.9$ as is prudent.
This representation of $p$ can be interpreted as a Bayesian prior.
In principle, it may be possible to
estimate $\bar{p}$ and $\sigma^2_{L(p)}$, but interactions with
the parameter $q$ in equation~\ref{eqn:coupledschaeferq} should be
explored.

{\bf Estimation.} The model states, $\alpha_t$, are assumed to be random
effects (Skaug and Fournier 2006). Model parameters are estimated by
maximizing the joint likelihood of the random
effects and the observations.
\begin{equation}
L(\theta,\alpha,x)=
\prod^m_{t=2}\big[\phi\big(\alpha_t-T(\alpha_{t-1}), \Sigma_\eta\big)\big]
\prod^m_{t=1}\big[\phi\big(x_t-O(\alpha_t), \Sigma_\varepsilon\big)\big]
\end{equation}
Here, $m$ is the number of time steps in the catch time series and
$\theta$ is a vector of model parameters. A complete list of
parameters is found in Table~\ref{tab:allvars}.
The model is implemented in ADMB-RE (Fournier et al 2012).
The actual number of
parameters to be estimated depends on the model configuration,
specified by phase flags in the input file.
All computer code, data files, and draft reports in support of this
analysis can be found at Github:\linebreak
\url{https://github.com/johnrsibert/XSSA.git}.

\begin{table}
\caption{Complete list of model variables and parameters.
\label{tab:allvars}}
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ll}
\hline
Variable & Definition\\
\hline
\hline
$m$ & Number of quarterly time steps\\
$n$ & Number of fishing gears\\
\hline
\hline
$r$ & Instantaneous growth rate $(y^{-1})$\\
$K$ & Asymptotic biomass (mt) \\
$T_{12}$ & Emigration rate $(y^{-1})$\\
$T^*_{21}$& Immigration rate $(y^{-1})$\\
$q$ & Nonlinear mortality apportionment proportion\\
\hline
$\sigma_\eta$ & Population growth SD\\
$\sigma_\xi$ & Fishing mortality random walk SD\\
$\sigma_\varepsilon$ & Observation error SD \\
$a_g\; g=1\ldots n$ & Observation error contaminated by
fat-tailed distribution\\
\hline
$\bar{p}$ & Mean proportion local\\
$\sigma_{L(p)}$ & SD logit transformed $\bar{p}$\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\end{table}

\end{document}


text:
package edu.kit.ipd.crowdcontrol.objectservice.crowdworking;

import com.google.gson.JsonElement;
import edu.kit.ipd.crowdcontrol.objectservice.proto.Experiment;

import java.util.Optional;
import java.util.concurrent.CompletableFuture;

/**
 * Created by marcel on 19.01.16.
 */
public interface Platform {
    /**
    * if the Platform has his own payment service the implementation can return not none.
    * @return the value to indicate if it supports self paying or not.
    */
    Optional<Payment> getPayment();

    /**
     * if the Platform has his own worker identification the interface can be returned here.
     * @return the value to indicate if it supports worker identification or not.
     */
    Optional<WorkerIdentificationComputation> getWorker();

    /**
     * Get the name of this platform
     * @return a String
     */
    String getName();

    /**
     * Returns the ID of the platform.
     *

     * The String must be unique, must match {@code [a-z0-9_]+} and not change since it is the only way other services can
     * communicate with the platform.
     *

     * The default implementation just replaces all characters from getRawId() with underscores that don't match the pattern.
     * @return a string
     */
    default String getId() {
        return this.getRawId().toLowerCase().replaceAll("[^a-z0-9]", "_");
    }

    /**
     * Returns the ID of the platform.
     *

     * The String must be unique and not change since it is the only way other services can
     * communicate with the platform.
     * @return a string
     */
    String getRawId();

    /**
     * Publish a passed experiment on the platform.
     *

     * The database indexes on an String named identification, it will provide an speedup when used.
     * @param experiment the object which should be published
     * @return this should return all the data needed identify the published experiment later, returning null is not permitted!
     *         Or finish with a exception if the publishing failed.
     */
    CompletableFuture<JsonElement> publishTask(Experiment experiment);

    /**
     * Unpublish the given id from the platform, after this call no worker should be able access the before published experiment.
     * @param data the stored data
     * @return true on success, false or a exception if it failed
     */
    CompletableFuture<Boolean> unpublishTask(JsonElement data);

    /**
     * Returns if calibration questions can be asked on this platform
     * @return true or false
     */
    Boolean isCalibrationAllowed();

    /**
     * Returns a link which points to a place where the experiment can be used.
     *
     * The link can use placeholders like {{experiment.xyz}} where xyz are properties of a experiment.
     * Each property can be looked up in the spec protobuf specification.
     *
     * @return A link to point to a website which displays a experiment
     *
     */
    String getLink();
}


text:
Jaan Landheer - Magic #Flyah Review
Although Jaan Landheer has performed in other bands, and recorded several full band EP's of his own, after the release of the 2017 "Love" EP, his first completely solo effort, the "Magic" album is a strong follow up. Written, recorded, and mixed by the artist himself, the record sounds just as he intended. Landheer uses music to express himself the best way he knows how. The songs are a creative outlet for life's ups and downs. Jaan's debut full length album, "Magic," is the epitome of where he is at with his sound right now.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
Home Rebuild World WebNovel Rebuild World Chapter 179 Mechanical Armoured Spider Bug
WebNovel Rebuild World Chapter 179 Mechanical Armoured Spider Bug
Rebuild World admin December 8, 2021 0 Comment
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Chapter 179: Mechanical Armoured Spider Bug
Akira continued searching the ruin. The inner part of the Kuzusuhara ruin expanded through a wide area and it was still quite a distance away from the deepest part of the ruin. But even so, compared to the outskirts of the ruin, the buildings were not that dilapidated, and the condition of the area was not much different compared to the deeper part of the ruin.
Alpha was floating horizontally next to Akira as if she was lying on top of an invisible bed.
"Akira, you've been driving around for some time now, are you not going to check one of those buildings?"
"I just thought that I should check the structure around this place first. That's for the sake of registering buildings that seem to have expensive relics too. By the way, is it true, it's better to aim for big buildings?"
"Hmm, I'm not really sure about that. Larger shops are easy to spot, so I feel like other Hunters would be searching such a building first. In that case, you might only end up with a small number of relics instead. What's more, big buildings like that tend to be guarded by relatively powerful monsters. So all in all, it might not be a good choice."
Akira nodded, then something came up in his mind.
"…Wait, isn't this considered as support from you?"
Alpha smiled mischievously at Akira.
"I won't count a small silly talk like this as support. If you really want to do this without my support at all, it might be better if I remove my image and voice too. But I just thought that you would be lonely if I do that, right?"
"Well, thanks for being considerate."
Akira smiled wryly.
In the middle of searching the ruin, Akira suddenly stopped his bike and looked around him.
The large building next to him seemed like it had been chomped by something big. Next to it, there were multiple corpses of greedy crocodiles together with the leftover of what seemed to be the defensive equipment of that building. Other beast-like biological monsters were feasting on those wreckages.
One of those monsters suddenly noticed Akira and stopped eating, but it immediately lost interest in him and returned back to its meal.
After watching that for a few seconds, a certain word came up in Akira's mind: 'food chain'. It was a word that he had learnt from Alpha's cla.s.s. He always thought that he would not be able to see for himself the meaning of all the words that he learnt in Alpha's cla.s.s, but that did not seem to be the case.
"…A living organism that started as a creature that eats buildings instead of gra.s.ses…? Nah, that can't be."
"Hmm, they might be the monsters produced by facilities with self-readjusting food chain preservation function in order to clean up the city."
"No no no, it would be meaningless for them to be eating the building then, wouldn't it? And even if that's true, then why would they even go as far as to fight the defensive equipment just to eat that building?"
"They might need to eat fresh rubble in order to be able to harvest the energy pack implanted into one of those self-repairing buildings. So basically, for them, the buildings are like fresh meat while the already destroyed buildings are like rotten meat."
Akira listened to Alpha's explanation with full interest.
Alpha smiled, amused.
"No, that's just my guess."
Akira frowned and looked slightly annoyed, but Alpha did not seem to be bothered by that at all as she kept smiling like usual.
"I don't mind if you want to talk about how the world works, but don't forget that we're in the middle of a job right now. If it still bothers you that much, I can reserve some time to give you an extra lesson about the monsters living in the old-world ruins. Though it won't be detailed to the point that you would be able to use that knowledge in real Hunter jobs. Do you still want to do it?"
The very same question was also in active research in the eastern district. Any pieces of knowledge that the researchers could get from that research would then be used to help them to pinpoint the nests and the production facilities of those monsters as well as their distribution around the eastern district.
"No thanks, at least not for the time being."
Akira interpreted Alpha's smile as telling him to stop dilly-dallying and get back to his job, so he once again operated his bike and left that place.
After Akira left that place, an abnormality happened in one of the dead greedy crocodiles. An arm suddenly burst out of its strong scales.
The owner of that hand forced itself out of that greedy crocodile after he tore a hole in that carca.s.s.
The other monsters in that area quickly focused their attention on Tiol and attacked him. Though Tiol only looked emotionlessly at those monsters, his right arm already swung at their heads while his left arm, which was in the shape of a cannon, was already shooting at them. It did not take long for him to destroy all the monsters attacking him. Once he was done, he immediately vanished into the deeper part of the ruin.
Akira once again stopped his bike. But this time, it was not because something piqued his interest.
"…Alpha. Unless my eyes are tricking me, there is a swarm of Tank Tarantula right?"
The roads and buildings in front of Akira were crawling with spider-like monsters, some of them had metallic skeletal frames while some of them had concrete-like bodies. Although some of them were unarmed, most had cannons growing on their backs. And their length ranged from barely 1 metre to all the way past 3 metres.
Akira's expression turned stern. But Alpha was smiling like usual as if it did not bother her.
"Those are a swarm of spider-type armoured insects. Cla.s.sification-wise, they're similar to the Yarata Scorpion."
"…So they're not Tank Tarantulas?"
"Tank Tarantula is the name of a bounty monster, so it doesn't refer to a type of monster. But if one of those spiders eat enough food to grow abnormally big and go through an abnormal evolution, there's a chance that it'll grow, evolve, or maybe mutate into something similar to that Tank Tarantula."
Akira thought for a bit before he decided not to avoid them. He let go of the bike's handle on the right and grabbed his rifle.
"Are you going to fight them? I don't see there's a need to fight them though?"
"I don't want them to turn into a swarm of Tank Tarantulas later just because I leave them alone now. And that's still my stance. Even if the possibility of something like that happening is very small, I should be prepared. What's more, this is a good chance to test my new equipment. After all, I'm free to use as many bullets as I want this time. I'll fight without your support first, but if things are getting bad, I'll need your support."
"Alright. I'll stand back and watch this time, so you can go ahead and give it your best shot."
Akira looked at the gun in his right hand and smiled bitterly.
"Though to be honest, rather than my skill, I think you'll have a better look at my new equipment and all the free ammo that I'm going to use this time."
At first, Akira was looking for a multi-type rifle that could shoot out grenades like his A4WM automatic grenade launcher, but he later decided to take that requirement off. After all, a rifle and a grenade launcher were basically two different things, so putting them into one gun caused the cost of that gun to skyrocket.
So in the end, he aimed for a gun that could do long-range sniping and continuous firing on top of being compatible with a wide range of ammo. After checking all the guns that Shizuka recommended within his budget and searching for the best gun among them, Akira decided on an SSB multi-weapon rifle.
SSB multi-weapon rifle was an amalgamation of DSS a.s.sault rifle, DVTS minigun, and CWH anti-material rifle. Its total length was just a little longer than an AAH a.s.sault rifle and shorter than a CWH anti-material rifle. It was compact enough to be used with one hand. It was also equipped with force field armour technology to reduce its recoil, thus effectively reducing its kickback and increasing its accuracy. But in exchange, it actively consumed energy packs to power its force field armour. The stronger ammo that Akira used, the faster it would burn through its energy pack. So, although it had so many features, one of its drawbacks was how much he had to pay for using that rifle.
Akira then used the rest of his budget to buy modification parts for that SSB multi-weapon rifle and his A4WM automatic grenade launcher, which totalled 200 million Aurum. And he still had to buy ammo, energy packs, and other consumables on top of that.
As he aimed his SSB multi-weapon at the spiders, Akira frowned, worrying if his new equipment could perform as well as he expected; considering all the money that he had splurged for it. The spiders immediately noticed him and tried to swarm him. The spiders with cannons on their back aimed it at Akira and started shooting at him.
Akira pulled the trigger, his SSB multi-weapon rifle was loaded with a magazine filled with ammo that was as expensive and as powerful as CWH anti-material rifle special ammo. Although the kickback from that ammo was nothing to scoff at, thanks to the recoil suspension system of the SSB multi-weapon rifle, Akira barely felt anything. Inside his extended time perception, Akira was extremely surprised, but of course, that did not stop him from aiming at the spiders in front of him. Even in that extremely extended time perception, he could feel multiple bullets leave the barrel of his rifle. The moment that bullet reached its target, it showed no mercy and blew its target to smithereens.
Akira was surprised by its firepower as he swept through the swarm. Although it reduced the intensity of his barrage, it was more than enough to pierce and kill the spiders. Akira biked up to the top of the scattered metallic wreckage of the dead spiders mixed with the rubbles and other things while he kept shooting at the spiders.
The falling warheads from the spiders bombarded Akira, but he was able to evade them with the speed of his bike as he turned left and right to disrupt their aimings. While at the same time, he was also circling the swarm, releasing a few shots every time he spotted that swarm from the openings between buildings.
Every time Akira pa.s.sed through a crossroad, multiple warheads would be immediately released in his direction from the spiders both on the ground and on the buildings. But he accelerated his bike to slip through those warheads, or sometimes, he would compress his time perception to its limit in order to evade them, while leaving the spiders chasing him behind. He then sometimes stopped his bike to lay and wait, and immediately released a barrage the moment that swarm made a turn on that crossroad.
Akira kept circling the swarm while shooting at them. Every time he made a full round, the radius of the swarm got smaller and smaller. Akira prioritized shooting at the monsters with weaker-looking bodies made of a mix of brittle mechanical parts and flesh, thus leaving only the strong armoured spiders behind. He also shot down all the spiders that were latching on the building walls as they smacked down right to the ground.
Right about when the size of the swarm was halved, Akira finally ran out of ammo. But even so, he kept aiming at the swarm.
Akira had also equipped his SSB multi-weapon rifle with a guiding beam. Thanks to a rather extreme modification part that he had bought, he managed to add a mini-missile launcher on his A4WM automatic grenade launcher fixed on an arm behind his bike. And that guiding beam was able to work together with that missile launcher.
Akira fixed his aim at the relatively strong looking spiders. When he did that, the information display on his goggles marked those spiders. That was when he pulled the trigger and released multiple missiles from behind him straight to those spiders.
The small-sized missiles floated for a while as if they were fixed in that positions, but then, immediately, some of them went overhead, drew a perfect curve before raining down at the spiders from above, while some of them travelled parallel to the ground following the guiding beam from Akira's rifle with a huge momentum before colliding with the spiders from the side. With the missiles coming from above and from the front, the explosions immediately devoured the spiders.
When the aftermath of that explosion subsided, the swarm left nothing behind at all. Only a larger sized monster that led the swarm was left in the middle of the destroyed swarm.
That monster, which looked like a pseudo Tank Tarantula, started to move. Part of its body opened up, exposing pods behind them, and released multiple mini-missiles that immediately hunted for Akira. Akira, who saw that, could not help but frown.
But he immediately accelerated his bike and jumped straight into one of the buildings near him. The missiles that were chasing him were not smart enough to pursue him as they collided into the wall of that building. As each explosion took a part of that building away, the missiles dug through the building and caused it to crumble down. Akira forced his way through that building on his bike and jumped out from the crumbling building. The building behind him crumbled down and made a loud sound as it fell to the ground.
The pseudo Tank Tarantula released another barrage of missiles. The missiles filled the sky before raining down on Akira. But before those missiles flew downward, Akira quickly compressed his time perception and reloaded a new magazine into his SSB multi-weapon rifle.
Multiple anti-forcefield armour bullets flew out from the rifle's muzzle in rapid succession. The bullets ripped through the air and hit the Tank Tarantula right on its head. The bullet was even powerful enough to pierce through its head all the way to its torso, making a mess of that monster's inside.
The Tank Tarantula exploded from inside, engulfing its big body in flames before blowing up into small pieces. With the mini-missiles losing their guidance system, they just flew straight down to the ground and exploded. Once all the missiles had exploded, silence returned to the ruin.
Akira heaved a big sigh.
"…I somehow got through that."
Alpha smiled and praised him.
"Good work, that was not bad at all."
"Thanks, but still…"
Akira's happy face was decorated with a bitter smile.
"…Normally this would leave me with a big loss."
Akira started to calculate the total cost of the ammo he spent in that fight but he immediately decided to stop before he could come up with the precise number. He then told himself that he would refuse to pay for the ammo that he used that day no matter what.
Suddenly a call reached his borrowed terminal.
"This is the commander from the forward base. Number 14, are you there?"
"Number 14 here, what is it?"
"Your terminal sent a data pack showing that there was a huge fight over there, what happened?"
"Oh, just monsters. There was a swarm of monsters that I had to fight."
"What's your situation right now? Do you need backup?"
"That won't be necessary, I'm just done with that fight. I'll be heading back to the forward base now for resupply."
"Alright, got it."
The call ended there, Akira then smiled wryly and said.
"I see, it was a pretty big fight, enough to warrant a check from them, huh? Alright then, let's end here for today. I'm pretty sure I already worked hard enough for the day. So let's head back home."
"Oh my, you're heading back early today."
"No no no, I already worked hard enough for today, you know. Even putting aside the amount of money that I used today, I'm pretty sure eradicating that swarm is good enough for raising my Hunter Rank… Probably."
Alpha smiled mischievously.
"So in short, this will basically take a little bit more time, huh?"
Akira lightly smiled and just ignored Alpha as he turned his bike toward the forward base's direction.
There was actually a different type of monster mixed in that swarm of spiders. Although that unit was not that strong, it was pretty durable.
So, even after all of that fighting, that unit survived. It made sure Akira left that place before sending some data. Once it had done its duty, it deactivated and went limp.
The next day, Akira was placing some orders in Shizuka's shop. Shizuka could not help but to make a worried face after she took in that order from Akira.
"You went and used quite a lot of ammo on your first day, did something happen?"
Although Akira was happy that Shizuka was worried for him, he also did not want to make her worry as he smiled at her and said.
"It's nothing too bad. I made sure to compensate for my skill with expensive ammo so that I won't be in any danger. Thanks to that, it was not that hard of a fight. Although, it would definitely leave me in red if it was a normal monster hunter request. Well, basically I'm buying my safety with someone else's money, but since that's how it is for this request, I'm planning to keep doing that."
Shizuka smiled bitterly.
"Well, you're really contributing to my shop's sales and if you say that you're not having any trouble at all, then I have nothing to complain about. Although, I wonder who's getting into trouble because of this."
"That would be the person who overestimated my skill, and that is not my fault."
Akira smiled mischievously, seeing that, Shizuka could not help but giggle.
Shizuka then finalized the payment, and just like last time, it went through without a hitch. After that, she turned to Akira and said to him with a serious face.
"…It went through without trouble again this time. At this rate, don't you think that it should be alright for you to get more expensive stuff?"
Although he did it because he had to fight a swarm of monsters, it did not change the fact that Akira leisurely used ammo while ignoring its total expense. Although his contract allowed him to do so, there was no mistaking that he would receive some complaints later. Even more so when Kibayashi did not even ask why he needed that money before approving payment.
Akira himself also wondered why he was allowed to do that, he wondered if it was because it was normal for Hunters working around the ruin to use that much money, or if there was another reason for that.
"Although these are only consumables, it would still take some time for the orders to arrive when you order this many, and it's doubly true for expensive goods. So it might be a good idea to place an order for some extra now."
"Ah, thank you but I will have to refuse, at least not for today. I just placed an order now. I'll think about it again after I receive it."
"I see, well, good luck and be careful out there. Don't lower your guard just because you're free to use as many bullets as you want, okay?"
Akira then spent some time talking with Shizuka before taking his goods and leaving the shop. Judging from how he seemed to be absolutely confident in being able to return back alive, Shizuka thought that whatever happened yesterday was not that much of a problem.
Akira once again took his bike to the inner part of Kuzusuhara ruin. That day he had no plans to hunt for monsters, instead, he went to search the buildings around the highway, hunting for relics.
After he spent some time looking around, he decided to just go to one of the buildings there. He parked his bike in front of that building, but before he went in, he looked at his A4WM automatic grenade launcher fixed on the backside of his bike and was unsure whether it was a good idea to bring it or not.
"…I guess it's better not to take that with me, huh."
Since he upgraded his A4WM automatic grenade launcher with a mini-missile launcher, its size had grown pretty large. Though he still could take it with him, it was pretty much as big as a tank cannon, and of course, bringing a tank cannon with him would hinder his mobility.
In the first place, grenade launchers and missile launchers were not something to be used inside a closed s.p.a.ce. He was able to do so in the past thanks to Alpha's support, but now that he was cutting himself from that support, it would be dangerous to bring them along with him. Not to mention, it was a ha.s.sle to put it back again once he removed it from the bike's arm. So he decided not to bring it along with him.
That was when Alpha suddenly interjected.
"Akira, you can actually take that bike inside too, you know?"
"No no no, there's no way to do that, right? Like, how am I going to take it up the stairs?"
"That's when technologies come in. You can just step off from the bike when you want to search narrow places. Moreover, there's no guarantee that your bike will be fine when you return back from searching the building, you know? Well, in the end, you'll be the one to do everything though, so I won't force you. But this is like another test for your luck, do you want to still go through it?"
Akira could still park the bike somewhere hard to see, put a camouflaging sheet over it, and pray that monsters would not find it. But with Alpha scaring him, he could not bring himself to take that option. He did not say anything back as he returned to his bike and turned it on while Alpha was watching him with a smile.
The inside of the building was actually pretty wide, thanks to that, Akira could ride his bike inside, albeit only slowly.
From Akira's point of view, the inside of the building was in a weirdly bad condition. Although the walls, the floor, and the ceiling seemed brand new, everything else inside that building was withered. It was as if someone was using that newly made building as a garbage dump.
Akira looked around inside that building unsettlingly.
"I picked this building because of its outer look, but I guess this place is a dud, huh?"
"The auto-repair function only repairs the building, not the furniture or any objects inside it. So I guess the cleaning and replacement system inside this building must have been long deactivated."
"I guess I'll at least look around."
Akira chose a random room, parked his bike in front of that room, and searched the room for any expensive-looking relics.
When he opened the door of one of the shelves there, he found a dusty machine inside it. As Akira tried to dust it off, it broke into pieces and fell apart. So he threw away anything that was left on his hand before moving on.
When he tried to pull a drawer, the handle went off and the whole drawer crumbled down, spilling the sand and the dust inside it and leaving only the handle on his hand. Akira threw that handle away and moved on.
He then spotted something that seemed to be a display case made of something that looked like gla.s.s. When he tried to lift it off to check if he could carry that back, the gla.s.s shattered and the whole case fell to pieces.
Akira frowned.
"Everything here is pretty much broken. This thing is still an old-world relic, right? So why is it this brittle? Even the plate that I found back in Higaraka residence ruin was not this brittle, you know?"
Alpha smiled and explained to Akira as if to calm him down.
"Although they're made from the old-world era, not all of them were made to stand for a long time. And just like how your SSB multi-weapon rifle depends on energy packs, these things might have been designed to run on energy too, you know. So it's understandable for them to deteriorate the moment they ran out of energy. But of course, this is nothing more than my guess."
"…I see. Well, if that's really the case, then we can't do anything about it. Let's just look for relics that seem durable."
Up until now, Akira had wondered multiple times as to why Alpha knew that much about the old-world era. He had a lot of guesses based on his limited knowledge. But lately, one of his guesses kept sticking to his mind, the guess that Alpha was from the old-world era too.
Both Seranthal from the Seranthal building and Tsubaki from the Tsubakihara building were also from the old-world era although they were nothing more than AI for managing those buildings. Not to mention, Tsubaki had a body, it seemed that she was also acquainted with Alpha. Alpha also did say something along the line that she could get a corporeal body if Akira completed her request to explore a certain ruin.
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So then, the real question would be what exactly was Alpha? Of course, Akira could not ask that question to Alpha himself since he would risk losing too many things by doing that.
Thus Akira pushed that question to the back of his mind as he continued searching for relics.
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WebNovel Rebuild World Chapter 209
admin December 8, 2021 0 Comment
WebNovel Rebuild World Chapter 209 – Hello, thanks for coming to my web site. My web site provides reading experience in webnovel genres, including action, adventure, magic,…


I LOVE everything about Disney's Spirit of Aloha Dinner Show! Disney's Polynesian Village Resort is one of my favorite resorts to explore and the dinner show is definitely a fantastic dining adventure!
The entire experience lasts approximately two hours. For sure you don't feel rushed and you are very well fed and taken care of....those all you care to eat BBQ ribs are heavenly, and you're going to love watching the fire dancing.
Have a wonderful time on your vacation. Have a pixie dusted day!


This morning I woke up thinking of you, grateful for having you in my life, inspiring me to dive deeper in the emotional waters of my psyche.
You listen and understand me better than anybody else without judging me. Our days together are like never-ending melodies full of colors, beautiful feelings and romantic touches.
When we encounter each other in our dreams, I never want those to come to an end. Is it your magical aura, your stunning looks, or your fairy-like voice? Or maybe, your loving and tender ways?
Oh Pisces, please never change. Let's keep making this beautiful film of our lifetime together forever and ever!