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Australia's submarines – the risk of broken promises
October 27, 2014 8.52pm EDT
Goran Roos, University of Technology Sydney
Goran Roos
Adjunct professor, University of Technology Sydney
Goran Roos is: Fixed-term position as Professor in Strategic Design in the Faculty of Design at Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne Chair, Venture Capital Assessment Panel (joint South Australian Government – University of South Australia Panel), Member of the Advisory Board of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Nanoscale Biophotonics, International Reference Panel member for the CSIRO Wealth from Waste Research Cluster, Member of the Defence and Systems Institute (DASI) Advisory Board, School of Engineering, University of South Australia, Stretton Fellow appointed by the City of Playford, Stretton Centre, University of Adelaide, Adjunct Associate Professor, College of Business, Nanyang Business School, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Adjunct Professor, University of Technology Sydney Business School, Sydney, Adjunct Professor, Mawson Institute, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Adjunct Professor, Entrepreneurship, Commercialisation and Innovation Centre (ECIC), University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Member of the South Australian Economic Development Board, Member of the Council of Flinders University, Member of the Board of Seeley International, Founding Member of Australian Design Integration Network (ADIN), Fellow of the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering
University of Technology Sydney provides funding as a founding partner of The Conversation AU.
Ian Macfarlane may be making some hasty promises about the jobs created by Australian submarine procurement decisions. AAP/Lukas Coch
Recently, we heard a bold statement from federal Industry Minister, Ian Macfarlane, regarding the procurement of Australia's new submarines.
"I can promise you this," he said, in an interview with ABC Radio. "There will be more jobs in South Australia as a result of whatever submarine we buy."
He insisted that no decision had been made on the submarine fleet; he promised extra jobs would be created in Australia during the construction and the maintenance phases. He did not accept overwhelming evidence, presented by the Economic Development Board of South Australia that building the submarine overseas will cost thousands of jobs and billions of dollars nationally, not just in South Australia.
From an advanced manufacturing perspective, however, there is evidence the minister may have made promises he will find impossible to keep. Analysis of his statements leads to a number of interesting questions, particularly if the submarines are procured from Japan.
The "real jobs" would be in maintaining and not building the fleet, he said, and the "electronics" would be fitted in Australia. What, exactly, does he mean by "electronics"? In the context of submarines this is an important question, with significant repercussions for the design, manufacture and procurement of the fleet.
Does "electronics" refer to the AN/BYG-1 tactical control and Mk 48 weapons control system? Does it also include the weapons handling and launch system? Or are we referring to the on-board entertainment system?
A submarine is an optimised closed system, where the installation and location of every component is crucial. Cable runs have to be installed during the build phase – it cannot, without incurring substantial costs, be added or modified later. Additionally, the submarine will have to undergo extensive sea trials – either in Japanese or Australian waters – before delivery. How can a submarine be built, trialled and delivered without the "electronics" in place?
If sea trials are conducted in Australia, the Japanese would have to use a heavy lift ship to transport the submarine shell to Australia, we would then have to fit the electronics here and then carry out the sea trials. The expense of transportation would be enormous.
Then there is the question around where any necessary modifications identified during the sea trials would be carried out, since we would not understand the Japanese vessel design nor have the necessary tooling to carry out any modification.
If the trials are conducted in Japan, the submarine will have to be fitted with its electronics at the Japanese shipyard before they start, breaking the minister's promise.
Fitting the submarine's electronics in Japan raises further questions. Will the submarine be operated by an Australian crew during the trials? If so, would the Japanese be willing to train our personnel in their electronics systems, sharing (and potentially jeopardising) their IP?
Who will certify that the submarine and the crew are safe to send to sea, before delivery of the asset to Australia? Will Australia's Submarine Sea Training Group be moved to Japan, or be flown back and forth? Where will our submariners be trained – in Japan or in Australia? Given that first of class trials for submarines take 2-3 years, what would be the impact on delivery of the first submarine to Australia?
By building overseas, the federal government not only risks broken promises, it also risks unnecessary complexity, lost time and additional expense. There is also a risk of repeating past mistakes, at enormous cost to Australian taxpayers.
The much-cited cost overruns of the Air Warfare Destroyer project were due, in part, to the changeover from a Spanish combat system to an American design. The problem, from a build perspective, was that the American system used more power and needed thicker cables – they did not bend sharply enough to fit inside the cable runs already installed in the ship. The changeover led to an expensive process of re-design and re-certification.
We also have the lessons from the Collins Class, where modifications for the AN/BYG-1 and Mk48 CBASS torpedoes cost around $1 billion.
Do we know how much it will cost to modify a Japanese-built submarine to fit AN/BYG-1 and Mk 48 torpedos? What about additional modifications, involving other electronics on board the vessel?
How can we begin to assess the cost when we have no access to the Japanese IP, we are not part of the design team, and our key personnel are not fluent in Japanese? Has the government fully considered the repercussions of its promises? The cumulative cost of return airfares between Perth and Tokyo alone would be significant. The idea that submarine "electronics" can somehow be separated from the rest of the build is unrealistic.
Far better, surely, to follow the suggestion by Dr John White, one of the Coalition's key ship-building advisers. In order to ensure that the submarine is built in Australia on time, fulfils the Navy's requirement, and secures the lowest possible cost to the taxpayer, we need a contested program definition study to select the right partner for Australia's most expensive procurement to date.
Collins Class submarine
Defence Minister Kevin Andrews has stood by the term "competitive evaluation process" despite many questioning what it means. Nikki Short/AAP
Too much at stake for weasel words on submarines
Will a Team Australia approach get the job done? AFP
Beyond the Collins Class: what next for Australia's submarines?
Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull's predecessor as prime minister, enjoyed a close relationship with his Japanese counterpart, Shinzo Abe. AAP/Ian Waldie
Turnbull aims to retain 'closest friend' tag in first Japan visit
Defence Minister Marise Payne is still to announce who will build Australia's next generation of submarines. AAP/Ben Macmahon
Defence white paper: why Australia will opt for Japanese-built submarines


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06/13/2011 07:04 am ET Updated Aug 13, 2011
'They Don't Negotiate': Why Young Women College Graduates Are Still Paid Less Than Men
By Amanda M. Fairbanks
NEW YORK -- Casey Ferguson was sitting in her car on Jan. 19 when she finally got the call she'd waited months to receive.
On the line was Jon Newman, the founder of the Hodges Partnership, a strategic communications firm in Richmond, Va., where she had recently interviewed.
He was calling to offer her an entry-level position.
Ferguson, a 22-year-old who graduated in December with a bachelor's degree in communications from East Carolina University, began her job search in the summer of 2009, when she worked as a summer intern at Hodges. After the internship was over, she began a protracted courting ritual: staying in touch with former colleagues through social networks and meeting up with ex-coworkers for lunch or coffee. She even brought homemade cookies by the office on more than one occasion.
But when she heard the word "offer," all of the lessons that had been drilled into her during college career fairs -- namely, that she could and absolutely should negotiate -- went flying out the window.
Even before Newman could finish explaining the full terms, Ferguson interrupted him to say that she accepted.
"After I said 'yes,' my boss immediately started laughing. He told me my first task was to enroll in Negotiating 101," recalls Ferguson.
It wasn't that she didn't care about the money. The daughter of an elementary school teacher and a South Carolina cable company employee, Ferguson put herself through college by working a series of part-time jobs and taking out student loans, on which she still owes more than $15,000.
"Thinking of all my friends who have graduated and still don't have jobs, why would I get greedy?" she says. "It's just not in my nature to nickel and dime."
Ferguson is hardly alone in her discomfort with playing hardball -- especially among other women, and especially during a recession.
Even during the most robust of economic times, women are less inclined to negotiate. In fact, according to Sara Laschever, co-author of "Women Don't Ask: Negotiation and the Gender Divide," 20 percent of women say they never negotiate at all. And in the current recession, which has made many job seekers feel grateful for any work they can find, even a part-time toehold can feel like a victory.
Based on several interviews with women under the age of 30, nearly all reported feeling almost guilty about asking for more money than was initially being offered.
The problem with this reluctance to ask for more is that women are still paid less than men. And as new research released last month reveals, young women often get the raw end of the deal.
A May study by the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University polled nearly 600 young men and women who graduated from college between 2006 and 2010. The authors found that young men are not only out-earning young women, they're doing so by an average of more than $5,000 per year. Male participants reported first-year job earnings averaging $33,150, while young women earned about $28,000.
Another report released in May, this one by the National Association of Colleges and Employers, indicated that new female college graduates are earning 17 percent less than their male counterparts.
The National Partnership for Women & Families reports that, among full-time workers in the population as a whole, women still earn only 77 cents for every dollar their male counterparts make.
"Historically, men out-earn women across all sorts of occupations," says Carl E. Van Horn, a professor of public policy at Rutgers and a co-author of the study. "All of our data confirms that's still going on with young people who have graduated from college in the last five years. I'm just disappointed that the disparity is still so large."
The danger of the situation is that, when a woman begins her career by earning less money, it's hard to ever catch up.
WHY THE EARLY WAGE GAP?
In past years, many scholars have blamed the overall gender wage gap on historic pay inequalities still affecting older women making less than their male peers. It was hoped that once those women exited the workforce, the gap might narrow. But last month's findings show that not to be the case.
There are data to suggest that the gender gap in first-year earnings -- and often, as a result, lifelong earnings -- is a consequence of women choosing less lucrative fields than men.
A study released in May by Anthony P. Carnevale, who directs the Center on Education and the Workforce at Georgetown University, suggests that women are self-selecting lower-paying professions by choosing college majors that simply don't pay much.
Utilizing previously unreported data from the U.S. Census Bureau's 2009 American Community Survey, Carnevale and his co-authors sampled 3 million college graduates between the ages of 25 and 64 who supplied their majors and subsequent earnings.
"For women, in only three of the 171 majors -- physiology, information science and visual and performing arts -- did they out-earn their male counterparts," says Carnevale. And though women attend college in greater numbers than men and subsequently out-graduate them, the highest earning majors are dominated by men.
According to the study, petroleum engineering majors, for instance, are 100 percent male-dominated, whereas women account for 97 percent of early childhood education majors. (Carnevale reports a sampling error of 3 percent.)
The average petroleum engineer's yearly salary is around $120,000. The average preschool teacher makes about $35,000.
Even Carnevale, who has studied this issue for decades, was surprised by the degree to which women and men were separated according to fields of interest and subsequent earning potential.
But the wage gap exists even between men and women in the same field, which suggests that women's reluctance to negotiate may be to blame.
In addition to the recent studies by Van Horn and Carnevale, Sara Laschever, who along with Linda Babcock also co-authored "Ask For It: How Women Can Use the Power of Negotiation to Get What They Really Want" found that men not only negotiate for more money out of the gate, but they also ask to be promoted with far greater frequency. In general, men ask for things for themselves four times more frequently than women do.
Some young women may think they don't need to negotiate. All too frequently, says Laschever, they mistakenly believe that gender-based wage inequality is a problem a previous generation already conquered -- and that it couldn't possibly still be an issue.
"Women in their twenties tend to think that the gender wars have been fought and won, and that they go after what they want just as much as their male peers do," she says.
Instead, Laschever finds, young women regularly set lower salary targets for themselves than men do, and there's a direct correlation between what they aim for and what they get. "Because men aim so much higher, they come away with a lot more."
Despite its obvious advantages, many women still fear even the idea of negotiation, says Victoria Pynchon, co-founder of She Negotiates, a company that empowers women to stipulate equal pay. She finds especially infuriating the notion that the economy is preventing many young women from deigning to enter those back rooms and demand equal pay.
"The economy shouldn't be an excuse," says Pynchon. "I ask every woman I meet, 'When's the last time you asked for a raise?' The answer is '2007,' or 'never,' or 'because of the economy' -- it's just an excuse."
"DON'T GET OUT UNTIL YOU'RE OUT"
Even in a bad economy, men will still ask for more, says Pynchon. She encourages women to find out what their jobs are worth by going on the web, researching salary sites and talking to anyone they can -- just so long as it's a mixture of women and men.
"Don't just talk to your girl friends," says Hannah Riley Bowles, a professor at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government who studies the psychology of women and work. "Talk to your guy friends."
One big reason Bowles sees women going into different careers from men is that they still assume the overwhelming responsibility of household and childcare duties. She sees a lot of young women falling into the trap of negotiating their first few jobs based on their future selves -- especially when they have yet to meet the partner they'll someday marry.
"They cut themselves out of certain types of jobs, assuming it will be incompatible with a stage of life when they're assuming larger pressures and responsibilities," explains Bowles, echoing the message of the oft-cited wisdom of Facebook COO, Sheryl Sandberg.
"Don't get out until you're out," is Sandberg's advice to women.
"Essentially, don't negotiate away your career potential before you've even met the person. Because who knows what's going to happen," cautions Bowles. "And don't assume a traditional division of labor, because -- in the future -- there will likely be different ways of doing things, and your paycheck may to be a vital one."
But underselling one's self can be a difficult habit to break. Mika Brzezinkski, the co-host of MSNBC's "Morning Joe" and the author of "Knowing Your Value," says that, once a woman becomes accustomed to asking for less -- or, as is more commonly the case, not asking at all -- it can be a difficult, if not impossible, to change course midstream.
"This shows the challenge that I think women all across the board face in wanting to strike the right balance. They don't want to come off as too strong or be perceived as a bitch," especially in a first job, Brzezinkski says to HuffPost while multi-tasking during her daily jog. "Our nature is very different, and we have this weird concept where -- maybe if we do the work first, we'll be rewarded later. Unfortunately, it doesn't really work that way."
First job negotiations, Brzezinkski cautions, can be especially difficult to navigate, mostly because a young woman hasn't yet proven herself, thus her bargaining power is low. But she blames the employers rather than the employees for the higher sums they are willing to invest in male workers.
"The question is: How do we break the pattern?" she asks. "We stop to have kids, we get married, we have choices that we make along the way, and within that a pattern establishes itself where feeling grateful starts to seep into your whole being -- the way you carry yourself, the way you articulate what you want and the way you negotiate for yourself."
Brzezinkski encourages women to play hardball for everything, but for their "very, very first job," she advises recent graduates to arm themselves with knowledge -- maybe even a copy of the recent Rutgers study that shows they're making $5,000 less than young men.
"Don't go into [the offer negotiation] angry, go into it knowing it's a gap that you'll need to fix in the next few years," she says. "The chips are still stacked against us. You're not getting paid what you're worth. And in the next negotiation, be sure to ask for more."
NEGOTIATING THE NEXT STEP: A RAISE
Two weeks after receiving her offer, Ferguson relocated to Richmond, Va., to start work and begin her professional life.
Her choices up to this point reflect much of what the research on young women's career choices has shown. In addition to Ferguson's discomfort negotiating her starting salary, she chose her major and career path based more on her happiness than on the size of her future paychecks.
Ferguson may someday make the $59,150 that is the average salary of public relations specialists, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. But that amount that doesn't come close to the $80,000 average for mechanical or chemical engineers -- both fields that skew overwhelmingly male.
And like many of her classmates, Ferguson began her new job with thousands of dollars in loan payments still ahead of her.
While she's only five months in -- following Brzezinkski's logic -- Ferguson should be thinking about how she's going to negotiate a salary increase that puts her on par with her male peers.
Yet when it comes to idea of asking for a raise in the future, she bristles at the possibility. "Negotiating just not on the forefront of my radar right now," says Ferguson, who is careful to avoid appearing too aggressive or too pushy.
"It's honestly just not even something I've thought about."
Amanda M. Fairbanks
Career & Money Gender Equality Women

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Cooking Seasonal
12 Months of Recipes Celebrating Ontario's Freshest Ingredients
by (author) Deirdre Buryk
Random House Canada
Seasonal, General, Canadian
Packed with 101 enticing and accessible recipes, Peak Season showcases how to make the most of seasonal Ontario produce when it's freshest!
In Peak Season, Deirdre Buryk explores this simple idea and celebrates Ontario's seasonal bounty as she guides you through each month of the year. While cooking your way through this beautiful collection of 101 recipes, you'll learn how to perfectly prepare fiddleheads in April, to then add to a Garlic Mushroom Fiddlehead Frittata; or peel what looks to be an intimidating, knobby celeriac on the coldest December evening, which will transform into a dish of Creamed Celeriac & Potatoes.
Deirdre gives you the chance to explore local ingredients without intimidation. After all, cooking with peak produce means simple ingredients shine when effortlessly prepared. Dishes like Roasted Delicata Squash with Sage Salsa Verde and Strawberry Shortcake Scones taste better because they're made with the freshest fruits and vegetables. The simplest recipe cooked with peak produce—think roasted radishes or garlic scape pesto—will excite your taste buds, turning something basic into something remarkable.
Peak Season upholds the importance of cooking with ethically raised meat, poultry, fish, and eggs with dishes like Apricot BBQ Sticky Ribs, Baking-Sheet Coq au Vin, and Crispy Salmon on Cantaloupe Ribbons & Salty Potato Crisps. Filled with stunning photography and charming illustrations, this book will inspire you to cook with fresh ingredients available right outside your door and leave you feeling confident that it will all work out deliciously.
Deirdre Buryk's profile page
DEIRDRE BURYK is a recipe and content developer who writes, styles, photographs, and films for various organizations, including Fresh City Farms, The Healthy Butcher, and The Leslieville Farmers' Market. Her background is in clinical nutrition and she takes most of her inspiration from nature and Ontario's seasons. She has been selected by Fjällräven North America to be Toronto's local guide in sustainability and leads their major events surrounding food accessibility and healthy eating. Deirdre lives in Toronto.
Find Deirdre on Instagram @deeburyk
Excerpt: Peak Season: 12 Months of Recipes Celebrating Ontario's Freshest Ingredients (by (author) Deirdre Buryk)
Peak Season is a story about what I've learned as my relationship to this land has deepened. Through my years of cooking, I have learned a lot about the food that grows in Ontario. Paying closer attention, I now realize how vibrant these fruits and vegetables are. This is a book—in fact, a love letter—about these gifts and the home that has provided it to me. Ontario is a province with wildly diverse flavours and people, with an ever-changing balance of seasons—a place that I believe should be a culinary destination. Sure, we are young when it comes to documenting our food history—maybe even a toddler stumbling in a world of grown-up regions like Oaxaca, Hong Kong, or Bologna—but Ontario is par- ticularly special. From my experience visiting farms, we have twelve distinct growing sea- sons—each with its own identity. Categorizing our climate into spring, summer, fall, and winter doesn't seem to fit the bill when each month bears new ingredients at their freshest in, well, peak season. It's like having your very own culinary muse in your backyard (or bal- cony garden in my case). Take a tomato, for example—so simple—plucked off the vine and eaten with just a sprinkle of sea salt. Or perhaps, drizzled with an herb oil and placed on a hunk of warm baguette in August—not November, not April—under the hot summer sun. By the time an ingredient goes out of season, something else, like a rich, nutty sun- choke—ready to relax into a velvety autumn soup—is in season, and the spirit of that August tomato will be a pleasant memory for next year.
Instead of tethering myself to a particular recipe and hunting down each specific ingredient, I prefer to cook by the season. It is a magic trick, really. Whatever may be in peak season is also going to be full of flavour and that vegetable fortitude is hard to mess up. Though, there is creativity needed for this. This type of cooking requires adapting to what is available and will always buoy a playful side to my cooking. I didn't always cook with such intimacy. I spent much of my career teaching, counselling, and learning how to eat "optimally," using the precision of numbers as a nutritionist. When I started devel- oping recipes in my test kitchen, years ago, at Fresh City Farms and in my more recent years coordinating the Leslieville Farmers' Market, I began to broaden my relationships with food grown in Ontario and with those who grow it. The farmers I know have always been my greatest culinary teachers. I began to understand food a little more with everyfarmer I visited. A rooted carrot would be plucked out of the soil and urged to try. They would show me how a radish isn't just a radish, but comes in many forms and spectrums of spice. How a new spring turnip is delicate and sweet, flavours best preserved by steam- ing instead of roasting. You may think you know what spinach tastes like, but nothing can be as healing as this verdant green picked straight from the field. If I could give you that perfect bunch of spinach that looks and feels alive, you would experience the mean- ing and wholesomeness of peak flavour—not even the most exotic superfood can com- pete with that. This is the foundation of cooking simply, connecting to home, eating with intent, and developing a deeper appreciation of how food gets to your plate. When I stopped trying to control the ingredients I wanted to use and let the repeating cycles of monthly vegetables and fruits inspire me, the more intuitive I became in the kitchen, and I hope the same happens for you.
In these pages you will find a collection of my favourite recipes made mostly from plants and inspired by this province's flourishing seasons. Every season—and every month—presents a diverse ensemble of fruits and vegetables, each with their own charm- ing personalities. I like to keep my cooking simple and casual. When I cook at home, I cook in a relaxed, sensorial way that would probably raise eyebrows in my test kitchen. These recipes are more influenced by my home cooking than they are by my recipe development career. They are not definitive, and I invite you to use each one as a starting point to a new way of eating.
Whether you are looking for a quick, delicious meal or a sensational affair on a plate, there is something for everyone here and for all types of occasions. Most are easy recipes for those whose time is short, though I did sprinkle in some more involved recipes—such as mushroom-garlic pot-stickers for family night, a slow-cooked brisket during the high holidays, or a multi-layered carrot cake filled with Ontario walnuts and ground cherries to celebrate a special someone's birthday. These recipes take a little extra time because the ritual of making them deserves as much attention as the ingre- dients themselves. These types of traditions create magical moments that I, like many, carry forever.
Some recipes I hold near and dear to my heart are from my grandma, my aunts, my mother, and my father, while many are inspired by friends, teachers, and loved ones who have welcomed me into their kitchens and showed me the heart of their cuisine—and lucky for me, in Toronto, there are many cuisines to taste. As you flip through each month's recipes, it will become more and more evident that I grew up on the flavours of my home- town, Toronto, one of the most multicultural cities in the world. Dishes here are influ- enced by Chinese, Italian, French, Jamaican, Japanese, and Mexican cuisines, to name a few. All of these have played a major part in developing my taste buds. Just like the soil thatfosters an astonishing range of fruits and vegetables, Ontario food is also inherently about celebrating an exchange of cultural diversity.
I hope this book offers you many new cooking experiences and inspires you to eat all the wonderful plants that Ontario has to offer. And more than anything, my dream is to give you an opportunity to develop a new relationship to this land, these plants, these animals, and most importantly, to one another. It doesn't matter where we are from; we all find ourselves making food as a way to live a life deliberately full of love and kindness.
PRAISE FOR PEAK SEASON
"There is a reason why chefs love to cook vegetables—because of the endless possibilities. Deirdre is an amazing culinary architect and tour guide of the seasons showcasing the very best that Ontario harvests have to offer. Peak Season will shift the way you think about good eating and delicious cooking in the most inspiring and informative way."
—LYNN CRAWFORD, chef and bestselling author of Farm to Chef
"Deirdre Buryk has written a beautiful love story about true Ontario ingredients from soil to plate. This book will find a welcome place in the home of any cook feeding friends and family, from one season to the next."
—CARL HEINRICH, chef and co-owner of Richmond Station
"Peak Season will inspire you to eat well, celebrate Ontario's agricultural abundance, and intimately connect with nature and our growing seasons. With Deirdre as your guide, visit your local farmers' market and start cooking with fresh ingredients!"
—BRIANA KIM, chef and owner of Alice restaurant
"With Deirdre's wonderful book we now have all the intel we need to deliciously cook along with the calendar, including seasonal grains, fruits, and vegetables. Within these pages, you'll learn there's more to eat from your own Ontario backyard than you ever imagined."
—AMY ROSEN, journalist and cookbook author
"I fell down the seasonal food rabbit hole and found it filled with farmers, foragers, and crazed cooks. Now, we also have Deirdre Buryk, a guide and fabulous documenter of gorgeous ingredients and recipes drawn from our plush multicultural landscape. Peak Season is a loving guide to Ontario's bounty, filled with dishes that have me hungry and struggling to decide: outside for ingredients or into the kitchen?"
—BRAD LONG, chef and owner of Cafe Belong


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Peter Szymon Serafinowicz (IPA: /ˌsɛrəˈfɪnəwɪtʃ/; Gateacre, Liverpool, 1972. július 10. –) angol színész, humorista, rendező és forgatókönyvíró, aki leginkább a Haláli hullák hajnala (2004) című filmben Pete szerepéről és a Star Wars I. rész – Baljós árnyak (1999) című filmben Darth Maul hangjaként ismert. Számos brit és amerikai vígjátéksorozatban is szerepelt. Ő játszotta a címszerepet a 2016-os Kullancs című élőszereplős sorozatban, és figyelmet kapott politikai szatirikus videóival, amelyekben Donald Trumpról készült videókat szinkronizál különböző komikus hangokkal. Olyan előadóknak is rendezett klipeket, mint a Hot Chip. Továbbá szerepelt A galaxis őrzői és a John Wick: 2. felvonás című filmekben is.

Élete

1972. július 10-én született a liverpooli Gateacre-ben, Catherine (születési nevén Geary) postai alkalmazott és Szymon Serafinowicz állványozómunkás fiaként.
  Édesapja, aki Surreyben született és nőtt fel, mielőtt Liverpoolba költözött, félig fehérorosz, félig lengyel származású volt. Serafinowicznak van egy James nevű bátyja, aki filmproducer, valamint egy Helen nevű nővére, aki író, és 2004-től 2021-ig Graham Linehan ír komédiaíró felesége volt, miután Serafinowicz összehozta őket. Hároméves korában Serafinowicz családjával Liverpool Belle Vale nevű kerületébe költözött, ahol az Our Lady of the Assumption Általános Iskolába járt. A család 14 éves korában visszaköltözött Gateacre-be, és a szomszédos Woolton külvárosban lévő St Francis Xavier's College-ba járt. Később így nyilatkozott: "Nagyon boldog gyermekkorom volt, de Belle Vale nagyon nehéz helyzet volt. Csak hároméves lehettem, amikor odaköltöztünk, de még mindig emlékszem arra, hogy nagyon fényes volt, és az egészet beparkosították. De ez egy nagyon szegényes környék volt, és elég gyorsan elzüllött. Gateacre hagyományosan Liverpool egyik előkelő területének számít. Valójában nem volt sokkal fényesebb!"

Magánélete

Serafinowicz 2002 körül ismerkedett meg Sarah Alexander színésznővel, miközben ő Gerald Harper színésszel volt kapcsolatban. Harpert 2002-ben hagyta el Serafinowiczért, és később összeházasodtak. Nyugat-Londonban élnek, egy fiuk és egy lányuk van.

2007 októberében Serafinowicz lemondott arról a szándékáról, hogy alkalmazza az emberi jogi törvényt az országos újságok ügyében; megpróbálta megakadályozni azoknak a részleteknek a közzétételét, amelyekből kiderül, hogy nagyapja, Szymon Serafinowicz náci volt, aki az első ember volt az Egyesült Királyságban, és akit a háborús bűnökről szóló törvény alapján bíróság elé állítottak. Szymont három gyilkosságban való közvetlen részvétellel és a Mir és Minszk zsidó lakosságának elpusztításában való személyes részvétellel vádolták, de 1997-ben demencia miatt alkalmatlannak találták a tárgyalásra, és még abban az évben, 86 éves korában meghalt.

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PLANNING and Development Officer for the Ongwediva Town Council, Mirijam Ndjalo, has warned that residents have no right to claim ownership of land within the town boundaries even in the absence of compensation.
Ndjalo said this during a media conference held at Ongwediva on Wednesday.
The Council on Wednesday held the media briefing with the purpose of giving updates on the completion of the formalisation of Omatando 1, 2 and 3. She explained that the compensation process is done to appreciate people who are residing on a piece of land and looking after it.
"Traditional Authorities don't give title deeds on land, hence the land belongs to council," said Ndjalo.
Human rights advocate, Phil Ya Nangoloh, however, has a different view on the matter and explained that all persons who had lawfully acquired permission to occupy (PTO) any land from a traditional authority before Ongwediva was declared a town, will continue to own such land rights even after Ongwediva has been declared a town.
"All and any land rights which were lawfully owned before Ongwediva was declared a local authority will continue to be vested in the original owners. This is the case until and unless OTC lawfully acquired such land by buying them over or by expropriating such land upon the payment of just compensation as contemplated by Article 16(2) of the Namibian Constitution," Ya Nangoloh said.
Ya Nangoloh added that a PTO is as good as a title deed and all that land owners need to do is formally convert such a PTO into a title deed with the assistance a conveyancer of one's choice.
Also speaking at the same media briefing, town spokesperson Jackson Muma announced that the formalisation process has been completed and council is expected to measure all the affected fields between March and April this year.
"This process will open negotiations with traditional homestead owners regarding the compensation," said Muma.
He pointed out that the formalisation process will cost council N$ 10 million, which will include planning and surveying of the planned area which consists of a total 2287 plots.


Chewing gum on the paw can be painful and a pain to remove.
By the time you realize your dog has stepped in gum, it's probably worked its way into the pad, in between the toes and into the hair. Small sticks and pebbles can get stuck in this gum, causing your dog pain and irritation. Obviously, you need to the gum as soon as possible. Gum removal from the paw is not a simple task. Patience and TLC are key.
You may be able to cut away some gum, but don't go in between toes with scissors. To get the rest of the gum off, saturate with household products such as peanut butter, olive oil or mayonnaise. The oils in these products can break up the gum. wipe the paw clean with soapy water. Take breaks, and rinse away residue.
You can take your dog to a groomer, who may be able to work her magic to get the gum out of your dog's paw. If your groomer isn't able to get all of the gum off, you may have to let the remaining gum wear off naturally.


text:
adidas and FC Bayern Munich extend successful partnership until 2020, present new home jersey
Tue, 19 April 11
Munich/Herzogenaurach, April 19th, 2011 – FC Bayern Munich and adidas, partners now for 50 years, have extended their partnership agreement until 2020. In addition, the new home jersey for the coming season was officially presented for the first time today at the Allianz Arena.
adidas and FC Bayern Munich are united by far more than just a partnership of many years as sponsor and supplier. Our partnership is a unique story of success to which we have added another outstanding chapter with the extension of our agreement.
Herbert Hainer, CEO of the adidas Group and Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of FC Bayern Munich AG
"We are delighted that the long-standing partnership between FC Bayern Munich and adidas, which is characterized by mutual trust and respect, will continue for at least another eight years. Together, adidas and FC Bayern will continue to stand for success," stated Karl-Heinz Rummenigge, Chairman of FC Bayern München AG. "For me personally, the new home jersey that we are presenting today is one of the finest FC Bayern has ever had. We are looking forward to playing in it!"
Sporting the club's motto "Mia san mia" (we are who we are), the home jersey embodies a special feeling of togetherness. The new outfit features numerous details, such as the "Mia san mia" logo which is incorporated in the collar in traditional lettering. The central design element is made up of integrated vertical stripes representing the "Munich Child", the figure depicted on the official coat of arms of Munich. The matching shorts and socks are in dark red, with gold stripes and design accents lending the team's outfit a supremely elegant touch.
The new FC Bayern home jersey will celebrate its debut at the home game against VfB Stuttgart on May 14th and will be available starting on May 13th from FC Bayern (at www.fcbayern.de/shop and in all fan shops), and from May 16th in the adidas online store (www.shop.adidas.com) as well as in specialist retail stores (adults € 74.95, sizes S-XXXL; children € 54.95 €, sizes 128–176).


Suppose that several things are clear. If Trump was dealing with Moscow about a Trump Tower while running as candidate for our presidency. If Trump has obstructed justice, for example, by firing his FBI director. If Trump has subverted the justice department. If his campaign engaged with Russians as they interfered with our election. If Trump has gone totally soft on Russia. And if Trump has implicitly, at least, condoned the murder of a Saudi journalist who was a resident of the U. S. Suppose that those things are true.
As I have said before, the real story of the 2016 election are those questions Blow puts to us. The real question is about the nature of Trump's supporters and what they will or will not do when confronted the answers to those questions. Blow continues.


This course presents an overview of the global structures of media and how these structures interact with local media industries and local cultures in the context of the critical roles that communication plays within societies. The course presents theoretical, conceptual and analytical frameworks necessary for a critical study of the media as a global phenomena. Particular attention is given to the structures and functions of major Australian media within a global context, including government and industry regulation, production processes and general media industry operation.
1. to provide basic information on the global structure of media and how global media influence local and national media.
2. to provide basic information on Australian media industries and institutions and the contexts in which they operate.
3. to provide students with frameworks for thinking about, analysing and commenting on the media.
4. to stimulate students' thinking about major issues in media in a global and local context.
Lectures will introduce participants to the key areas of interest in the subject and these will be complemented with relevant audio-visual material. Tutorials will give participants the opportunity to reflect on and discuss lecture content as well as provide an opportunity to lead discussion on selected topics.
Cunningham, S and Turner, G, The Media and Communications in Australia, Sydney, Allen & Unwin, 2006 (second edition). This is available from the RMIT bookshop at the student price. As lectures and tutorials are based on weekly readings from this text, all students are encouraged to have their own copy. It will also be a useful text for many other BA Communication courses. Course participants are also encouraged to read the weekly "Media" supplement in The Australian newspaper and subscribe to the Guidomedia web newsletter (guidomedia.com). Additional material will be available through blackboard.
Assessment will be based on three components. The first will be a research essay which will allow students to select a country from a range of options and examine its media environments primarily in the context of press freedom. Students will also form small groups and select from a range of tutorial topics for a presentation exercise. Lastly, a test will be held in the final week of lectures which will be based entirely on lecture and tutorial material.


text:
Letter of Amicus Curiae in Support of Petition for Writ of Mandate in California Attorneys for Criminal Justice, et al. v. Gavin Newsom, California Governor, et al.
COVID-19 has made one thing clear; when law enforcement cooperates with ICE this has dire public health implications. There have been renewed and urgent efforts to stop this cooperation, including a recently filed lawsuit California Attorneys for Criminal Justice, et al. v. Gavin Newsom, California Governor, et al ., challenging the transfer of people from state and local custody to ICE in the...
Memo on the Equal Protection Implications of Immigration-Related Prosecutorial Considerations
Increasingly prosecutors are asked to c on sider immigrati on c on sequences in the charging and plea-bargaining process. Some states have adopted policies requiring prosecutors to c on sider such c on sequences, see, e.g., Cal. Pen. C. § 1016.3(b), and some prosecutor offices have adopted internal guidelines mandating the c on siderati on of immigrati on c on sequences. This advisory provides c...
Explaining Gonzalez v. ICE: A Guide for Advocates in Texas (April 2020)
In February 2020, a federal judge in California issued an important decision in Gonzalez v. ICE limiting the issuance of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detainers by some ICE offices. The decision finds that ICE violates the Fourth Amendment by issuing detainers based solely on information from its own databases, which are too error-ridden to provide probable cause for the...
Responsible Releases: Safeguards to Protect Immigrants Released from Jails and Prisons
As more and more jurisdictions are contemplating releasing people from jails and prisons, it is critical that we consider ways to ensure that people released are not immediately transferred to the harmful deportation system. ILRC, together with our allies, Asian Prisoners Support Committee, Asian Americans Advancing Justice – Asian Law Caucus, and California Alliance for Youth and Criminal...
ICE Detainers Are Illegal — So What Does That Really Mean?
Over the years, various courts throughout the country have agreed that prolonging custody of a person solely based on an ICE detainer request is unlawful for numerous reasons. This practice advisory provides a summary of the court decisions related to ICE detainers and the arguments to challenge localities that continue to detain people for ICE. The cases discussed here illustrate some of the...


Earlier, signs of lacking bullish momentum were manifested on the chart. A bearish corrective movement was initiated towards the levels of 1.2900-1.2850.
Previously, the level of 1.1100 where the backside of the broken uptrend was located, had been visited few timesб including last Friday. However, significant bearish rejection was expressed both times.
On the other hand, the nearest demand level around 1.5200 will become exposed if GBP/USD bears manage to bring trading again below the level of 1.5500 (low probability).
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. Currently trading at 98.189, the US dollar index stays firm on the upside after getting a boost from comments made by Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart, who confirmed his support for an interest rate hike in September. US 10-year Treasury yield hit 2.22% then, and is now at 2.23%. USD/JPY maintains its strong upward momentum climbing with the support of 20-period intraday moving average. The intraday RSI is well directed within the buying area between 50 and 70. The first upside target at 124.60 (around the high of July 30) is in sight. The second upside target is set at 124.80.
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 124.60 and the second target at 124.80. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 123.70. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 123.50. The pivot point is at 123.95.
USD/CHF is expected to trade in higher range . The pair broke above its key resistance at 0.9715 yesterday, which opened the path towards 0.9845. Technically, the key moving averages are turning up, and the intraday RSI is positive above the neutrality level at 50. Besides, the pair is more likely to be forming a "flag" bullish continuation pattern. In these perspectives, as long as 0.9745 is support, expect a continuation of the rebound towards 0.9845 after a pause.
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9810 and the second target at 0.9845. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9710. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9665. The pivot point is at 0.9745.
NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. The pair is capped by a declining trendline (established since July 28) and is trading below the 20- and 50-period MAs. The intraday RSI is below the neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum. As long as the key resistance at 0.6580 is not broken, look for further downside to 0.6500 and 0.6470 in extension. Only a break above 0.6575 would make the intraday outlook bullish with the first alternative upside target at 0.6615.
Technical comment: The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is neutral.
GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. The pair has broken its previous high, and is expected to look for a higher up in the forthcoming sessions. Both descending 20-period and 50-period intraday MAs are playing resistance roles now. The intraday RSI is badly directed and has broken down its 30 level. The first target to the upside is set at the horizontal resistance and overlap at 194.60. A break above this level would open the way to further strength towards 195.20.
The daily chart is positive-biased as bullish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Monday. Stochastic is bullish, the MACD histogram bars are turning positive, and 5-day moving average is above 15-day moving average and is advancing.
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 194.60 and the second target at 195.20. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 193. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 192.45. The pivot point is at 193.60.
Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of $1,087.00. According to the daily time frame, we can observe a weak small real body. I found a strong trading range between the price of $1,077.00 (support) and $1,108.00. Selling gold around our support looks very risky and my advice is to watch for potential breakout of trading range to confirm further direction. According to the M15, we can observe selling climax (hidden buying) and successful test bar, which is a sign that buyers are in control. The trend is neutral.
The USD/CAD pair is going to call for an uptrend market today. The price will probably move between the levels of 1.3071 and 1.3225 in order to form a range of 154 pips in the coming days. The support is at the level of 1.3071, which represents a weekly pivot point. Therefore, the bulls are going to buy above 1.3071 with the first target of 1.3225. In case the trend can break the resistance at 1.3225, it might resume to 1.3266. A new double top is going to be at the price of 1.3266. On the other hand, the resistance is set at the spot of 1.3225 - 1.3266. So, the trend will call for a bearish market in this area because there is a minor bearish channel.
However, risk to reward ratios are important and should always be calculated. So, a risk (77 pips) reward ratio of 1:1.5 is recommended. It should make a profit of 154 pips.
The stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Hence, set your stop loss above 1.3052.
The H4 chart demonstrates that, Silver price fluctuates within a tight range, settled below 14.70.Therefore, we keep on preferring the bearish trend in upcoming sessions. It needs to break the level of 14.40 to head towards the next target at 12.80. The EMA50 and stochastic continue to provide negative signals, which support the downside track expectations.
Silver price settles below the bearish channel's resistance level that appears in the chart, which meets the EMA50 to strengthen it, while stochastic provides negative overlapping signal in the four-hour time frame, therefore. These factors encourage us to keep on preferring the bearish trend in the upcoming period, To open the way towards 12.80, the level of 14.40 needs to be broken.
You should be aware that breaching 14.70 will stop the current decline and pushes the price to test the level of 16.05 before detecting the next trend.
The resistance of AUD/USD is set at the price of 0.7449; and the support, at the 0.7343 price. So, according to the previous events, the AUD/USD pair is going to move between the resistance and support. As a rule, history will probably repeat itself at this level again. Therefore, we expect a range about 106 pips on August 5, 2015. Accordingly, if the trend fails to close below the level of 0.7343, it will be a good opportunity to buy above 0.7343 with the first target at 0.7402, then it will continue straight towards 0.7424/0.7449. Nevertheless, the stop loss should always be taken into account because it should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Consequently, the best location to set your stop loss should be placed below the level of 0.7320.
The risk of 35 pips must make a profit of 106 pips.
The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is 0.7342, which represents the strong support this week.
The support will be at the level of 0.7342. The double bottom will be at the price of 0.7304.
The double top will be at the point of 0.7449 on the H1 chart.
The resistances will be at the levels of 0.7424 and 0.7449.
The volatility: 182.49. As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the previous day has a huge volatility.
The attached H4 chart demonstrates the price's actions from 195.86 as a sideway consolidation pattern. Thus, while another rise cannot be ruled out, strong resistance should be seen around 195.86 to limit upside and result inreversal. Below, the support at 190.99 will turn bias back to the downside for 184.95 and possibly further to 61.8% retracement of 174.86 to 195.86 at 182.88.
The up trend from 116.83 is still in progress and would target 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is closer to the psychological level of 200. Medium-term momentum is not too convincing with bearish divergence condition on the weekly MACD. We would be cautious on medium-term topping around 200 and bring a deep correction. Meanwhile, a break of 174.86 will suggest earlier-than-expected reversal of the trend.
Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways around the level of 1.6620. Low volatility is bserved on the market. In the daily time frame, we can observe a weak supply bar in a volume just below the average. The price rejected from our major resistance level (1.6805). According to the M15 time frame, we can observe few selling climax actions (potential intraday buyers.) The short-term trend has changed from bullish to neutral. Be careful when selling EUR/NZD at this stage. I found a strong trading range between the levels of 1.6590 and 1.6590.
Trading recommendations: Sideywas market. Wait for a breakout of the trading range to confirm the further direction.
The British pound fell sharply after the dismissed housing activity. USD is supported by a series of positive economic data.
IMPACT ON GBP: Construction output growth slowed down moving away from June's four-month high. Residential building expands at the weakest rates since mid-2013. The headline seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index eased slightly from June's four-month high of 58.1.
Upcoming events: Ahead of the US jobs data, traders focused on the US dollar. Today, they eye the ADP no-farm employment change, trade balance, and ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Traders do expect wild moves during a day.
Outlook-Earlier, the cable made a strong ceiling at 1.5700. The cable broke the 3-month ascending trendline, as of now still trading below that level. In the four-hour chart, the cable fell below the bearish h&s pattern.
Bullish developments-The cable has been reaching higher lows in the weekly pattern support at 1.5450. The weekly trading pattern is framed between 1.5450 and 1.5700. The cable finally closed above 50Wsma at 1.5535.
Moving averages- The 20& 50Dsma is found at 1.5550, 100Dema is found at 1.5470, 200Dsma is found at 1.5400, 20Wsma is found at 1.5380 and 100Dsma is found at 1.5320.
Intraday - Intraday resistance is seen at 1.5600, 1.5620, and 1.5650. Support is found at 1.5545, 1.5530, and 1.5500.
Selling is available below 1.5540 with an initial target at 1.5520 and at 1.5490 and 1.5470 later. The selling accelerates only below 1.5520 and a trend is likely to change below 1.5440.
Whenever the cable touches the levels of 1.5675 and 1.5700, it will hit lower low. Initial low was 1.5530 and 1.5467 later. This time we can expect 1.5450 or 1.5410. A daily close above 1.5700 will enable bulls to aim for 1.5780 in a day or two.
Trade: Safe selling below 1.5520, buying is above 1.5600 with targets at 1.5630 and 1.5650.
The fall in the commodity prices hits the Australian economy very badly in the recent years. The Australian economy used to be called as luck country, there are many natural resources such as coal, iron ore, and gold. After the commodities super cycle the iron ore and coal prices have been falling sharply. Recently, gold prices added some more pressure to the AUD.
Goldman Sachs expects that iron ore prices will continue falling until the second quarter of 2016.
The pressure from the nuclear deal makes the oil prices move lower. The lower oil prices directly effect the Canadian economy.
Upcoming events: Traders keep an eye on the data on unemployment rate and employment change in Australia. Besides, Canada's trade balance is due to be released today.
Overview: The cross has been trading on a bearish texture. The cross retested 0.9400 thrice in 15 months, but successfully managed to close above that. The 20- and 50Dsma are found at 0.9515, and 20Wsma seems to be at 0.9550.
After the RBA kept the rates unchanged the AUD spiked 1.50% closing at the highest point of the day.
On the daily chart, the cross managed to close above all the moving averages. The cross made a higher low and higher high on the daily chart.
On the weekly chart, the cross managed to close above 20- and 50Wsma.
At yesterday's session, the cross faced resistance at 0.9745 and parallel resistance at 0.9744. The nearest resistance seems to be at 0.9790 100Wema, 0.9810 100Wsma, and 0.9840.
Today the cross is trading at 0.9715 compared to the Tuesday close at 0.9731. The cross has some more room towards the 0.9800 and 0.9820 levels.
Intraday: Support is at 0.9700, 0.9650, and 0.9630. Resistance is at 0.9775, 0.9800, and 0.9820.
Trade: We recommend fresh buying above 0.9750 aiming at 0.9775 and 0.9800, and in the extreme case, at 0.9820 or even further to 0.9840.
Trend: The trend favours buying on the dip at 0.9650 and 0.9630. SL is at 0.9600. For positional basis, buy with SL 0.9530.
The cross pair lost all the moving averages on the daily chart except for 100Dsma that is at 134.25. The 20Wsma is found at 134.50. The cross has been making head and shoulder formation, neck line is at 133.09. The trend changes, level is at 133.00 - stop loss might be placed there.
Intraday support is found at 135.00 and 134.80. Today, at the Asian session, the cross made low at the 135.02 levels. Resistance seems to be at 135.55, 135.80, and 136.15.
On the H1 chart, the cross pair fell below the base triangle aiming at 134.80, 134.50 and 134.35 initially. The selling is likely to accelerate below 134.80.
The hourly momentum oscillators indicates oversold condition, it might bounce from the support levels.
Lower oil prices put pressure on the CAD pushing it to much lower levels, and finally towards 1.3213 at the today Asian session.
Ahead of the key events in the US such as data release on ADP non-farm employment change, trade balance, and ISM non-manufacturing PMI as well as Canada's trade balance report that is due to be published today, the pair is trading at higher levels with highly overbought indicators. Before further upward movevemnt, we expect the price to correct a bit.
Technical view: Monthly resistance seems to be at 1.3380. In all time frames, oscillators seem overbought. The pair has been moving higher for five straight sessions. It means the pair has been moving higher for six weeks in a row.
Intraday resistance seems to be at 1.3250, 1.3285, and 1.3300. Support is at 1.3175, 1.3160, and 1.3150. Intraday selling available below 1.3150 aims at 1.3110. The market waiting for the NFP data that can define the trend.
The US Dollar index gave a short-term bullish signal yesterday breaking above the short-term trend-line resistance. The US Dollar Index moved towards short-term higher highs in the important resistance area of 98.-98.20.
The index remains above the Ichimoku cloud implying that the short-term trend is bullish. Yesterday, we got another bullish signal after a breake above the downward sloping trendline as shown in the 4-hour chart above. We are at important resistance levels now. Critical short-term support is at 97.30.
The weekly chart above shows the important resistance level we are currently at. A rejection in this area will probably push the US Dollar Index towards the Green trendline support. Important weekly support is seen at 96.70. Bulls do not want a break below that area.
The next portion of economic data from the UK is about to be released today. Among all PMI releases from EU countries, the UK services sector PMI will be released at 08:30 GMT. The market expects a slight decrease to the level of 58.1 in July from 58.5 in the prior month. Similar situation can be spotted on Core Services where the market expects a decrease to 56.9 from 57.4 a month ago.
Amid the situation, any surprise in data ( numbers better than expected) might help GBP/USD to breakout above the demand breakthrough zone and head towards the level of 1.5790.
Gold price continues to trade inside the short-term triangle pattern. The price is kept inside a trading range between $1,105 and $1,077. Currently, a break above resistance and a push towards $1,130 are likely to be the most probable outcome. My longer-term view remains bearish.
Gold price remains below the blue trendline resistance and below the Ichimoku cloud. Medium- and long-term trends remain bearish. The short-term trend is neutral as the price moves sideways. Traders are waiting for a breakout above or below the triangle. Targets are $1,130 if we break upwards and $1,040 if we break downwards.
The weekly chart remains bearish. A steep decline has stopped. It is time for an upward bounce towards the tenkan-sen (red indicator). My longer-term view remains bearish as long as the price is below the Ichimoku cloud.
Yesterday evening, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said the Fed was ready for the first in nine years short-term interest rate hike as the economy is on its way to recovery. He added that only serious deterioration in the US economic conditions ( unemployment incensing, wages decreasing, inflation decreasing, manufacturing decreasing) could bar the Fed from raise the interest rate. Nevertheless, the Fed's inflation target level for the first rate hike is 2%. This is why September's rate hike might be postponed December 2015.
After the hawkish Lockhart comments the EUR/USD pair broke below the golden trendline and it is currently trading at the level of 1.0864. The important support at the level of 1.0808 is the next in view.
As anticipated yesterday, the market has completed the wave c purple to the downside and the temporary local bottom had been established at the level of 135.01. Nevertheless, there is still a possibility of further downside developments if the intraday resistance at the level of 135.53 is not violated. If this happens, the market will continue to develop Z brown wave to the downside, targeting the support at the level of 134.42. Please notice that the current wave progression in wave (b) blue might not be completed and might evolve into a triangle pattern ( wave abc green are the first three triangle sub-waves, then we need wave d green and e green to complete it).
Daytraders should consider opening sell orders from the level of 135.53 with tight SL (20-30 pips) and set the TP at the level of 135.01 with a possible extension downwards to the level of 134.42.
As anticipated yesterday, the level of 1.3204 was hit and the whole impulsive structure looks completed. There is, however, a possibility of minor internal progression to the upside to complete the sub-wave v blue, but both counts are pointing out that the mid-term top might be in place. To confirm this scenario, the market need to breakout below the intraday support at the level of 1.3110 in impulsive way and head towards the weekly pivot point at 1.3031.
There is no change in view. We are still looking for a breakout above 1.6826 for a continuation higher to 1.7277 as the next major upside target. Ideally, support at 1.6540 will continue to protect the downside for the breakout above 1.6826, but a break below 1.6540 is likely to delay the expected upside pressure closer to 1.6325 before renewed upside pressure can be expected.
We are long EUR from 1.6603 and will move our stop higher to 1.6550. If you are not long you should only buy upon a breakout above 1.6718.
The pair extended ist fall during yesterday's session after the US factory orders supported USD.
The number of unemployed registered at the offices of the Public Employment Services contracted to 74,028 in July, which is the biggest drop since 1998 and more than double that recorded in July 2014 (29,841 unemployed).
The pair has been closing below 20Wsma at 1.1050 for three consecutive weeks. In the four-hour chart, the pair is trading in an ascending bearish channel, rejected at the upper end of the trendline willing to go further down. In case of a daily close above 1.1130, fresh longs will be added to the system.
Until the pair trades below 1.1000, sell on rises. The supply zone remains at higher levels between 1.1085 and 1.1100 50Dsma. Until the price closes below 1.1000, sell on rises. We have been recommending the same strategy for a while, Friday's session proved that the strategy remains valid in the near term. Monthly support is found at 1.0730.
Intraday resistance is seen at 1.0900, 1.0940, and 1.0990. Support is found at 1.0870 and 1.0850. In case the pair loses 1.0850 again, selling will accelerate.
Review: At yesterday's session, we forecasted that intraday selling would be available below 1.0930 with targets at 1.0900, 1.0870, and 1.0850. The pair hit a low at 1.0879.
Trade: Intraday selling is advised below 1.0850 with a target at 1.0810, the second round of panic is likely to be triggered below 1.0790.
Intraday buying is available above 1.0900 with a target at 1.0930.
The metal managed to hold the given support zone, but on the back of strengthening USD, gold has lost momentum.
Ahead of the US jobs data, traders focused on the US dollar. Today, they eye the ADP no-farm employment change, trade balance, and ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Traders do expect wild moves during a day.
Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the FOMC was nearly ready to raise the key interest rates.
The metal has been moving sideways for 12 consequent sessions. However, it might change this Friday after the form of non-farm employment data.
We do not expect wild moves until Friday, as market is awaiting the NFP data which can influence the trend.
The yellow metal was trading at $1,086.50 during today's Asian session, opened higher on a bearish note. In the weekly chart, the metal managed to hold the channel support trend line at $1,085.00 on a closing basis. The metal has been reaching lower highs and lower lows breaking below the large bearish head & shoulder pattern.
The weekly support is found at $1,085.00, $1,077.00, and $1,073.00. A weekly close below $1,085.00 opens gates to $1,068.00 initially and $1,045.00 and $1,005.00 later. In the monthly chart, strong support zone is seen between $1,045.00 and $1,032.00. The metal fell below the 14-year ascending trendline in the monthly chart. It managed to close above $1,085.00 on a daily closing basis for eleven consecutive days.
A daily close below $1,085.00 opens gates to $1,077.00 initially and $1,072.00, $1,065.00, and $1,055.00 later.
Intraday: Intraday support is found at $1,084.00, $1,080.00, and $1,077.00. Resistance is seen at $1,090.00, $1,093.00, and $1,095.00. We can observe a bearish h&s pattern in the hourly chart. Neck line is seen between $1,079.70 and $1,080.70.
Ahead of a series of major US data, the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and gold formed a bearish h&s patterns in their hourly charts.
The metal has been making lower lows in the four-hour chart. The metal made a triple top at $1,105.00.
Panic is likely to be triggered below $1,077.00. We guess the metal is likely to fall towards 1072.00 in case $1,077.00 is taken out. Use a rise to sell in favor of the trend.
Review: At yesterday's session, we forecasted that the metal would hold the support between $1,082.00 and $1,080.00 to bounce towards $1,090.00 or $1,092.00. The metal reached a low at $1,080.00 and a high at $1,094.50.
We saw a break below important support at 135.49, which has changed the short-term count. The consolidation, which has been taking place since late July, is best described as a small triangle. This tells us that a b-wave and a c-wave can be still moving lower to 130.04. A break below the low of red wave d at 134.28 will confirm this outlook.
The short-term resistance will be found at 135.49 and at 136.17 again, which needs to protect the upside.
EUR/USD: This pair was forced to break out to the downside, owing to the bullish direction of the USD/CHFpair. The price is now below the resistance line at 1.0900, and it may reach support lines at 1.0850 and 1.0800 today or this week. The resistance line at 1.0900 is now an obstacle to any rallies on the market.
USD/CHF: As it was expected, the USD/CHF pair was able to go above the recalcitrant support level at 0.9700 (which was formerly a resistance level). The price is now above the support level of 0.9750, going towards the resistance level at 0.9800. This is the target for today.
GBP/USD: The volatility is currently high on the cable without bulls or bears gaining upper hands. The price will either break above the distribution territory at 1.5650 or break below the accumulation territory at 1.5550. A breakout to the downside is most likely to take place.
USD/JPY: Because of the US dollar's stamina, this currency trading instrument went higher on Tuesday. This has resulted in a "buy" signal on the market, and the supply level at 124.50 could be tested easily. In case this happens, the price could target another resistance level at 125.00. This outlook, however, does not rule out the possibility of a bearish action.
EUR/JPY: What has happened on this cross has already caused what could be called the beginning of a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is below the level of 50. This could be a start of a serious bearish journey, owing to a possibility of a serious tamina in the yen.
Gold continues its sideways movement between the levels of $1,080.00 and $1,095.00. A relief rally can be expected tpo take place any time until prices stay above $1,070.00. Please note that the metal is facing resistance going through its 50-day moving average, but a push higher would confirm that an intermediary low has been formed at $1,075.00. It is recommended to remain long for now, with risk at $1,070.00. Immediate support is seen at $1,075.00 followed by $1,052.00, $1,030.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,105.00 (range resistance), followed by $1,130.00/32 (fibonacci), $1,175.00, and higher.
Remain long for now, stop is at $1,070.00 levels, a target is open.
Yesterday, silver tested the level of $14.40 again before bouncing back off towards its 50-day moving average as seen here. The metal might be forming a possible double bottom, which would be confirmed after prices break above $15.00. It is recommended to remain long with risk around the level of $14.25. Immediate support is seen at $14.40/50 followed by $14.00, $13.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at $15.00 followed by $15.30 (fibonacci), $15.90/16.00, and higher. A break above the level of $15.00 could confirm a meaningful bottom formation around the level of $14.40.
The EUR/JPY pair dropped lower into the support area around 135.00 as seen here. Please note that a pin bar candle appeared with lows just ahead of 135.00, indicating a potential reversal. It is recommended to remain long for now with risk at the levels of 134.00. Immediate support is seen at 134.00 followed by 133.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at 138.00/139.00 followed by 140.00, 141.00, and higher respectively. Bulls should come back if prices remain above the level of 134.00.
The GBP/CHF pair cleared the way to the levels of 1.5200/30 yesterday and is trading around 1.5220 now. Please note that immediate support is seen at 1.5050 and bulls shall remain in control until prices stay above that level. It is recommended to remain flat at the moment and watch for a reaction around 1.5050. Immediate support is found at 1.5050 followed by 1.4950, 1.4800, and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5250 and higher respectively. Any bearish setup is ruled out until the level of 1.4950 remains intact.
The USDX is trading higher looking for an opportunity to test the resistance level of 98.29 after a successful breakout around the level of 97.57 to the upside. The current daily chart structure is still very bullish. The index could consolidate above the 99.00 psychological level in coming days. The MACD indicator is entering the positive territory.
On the H1 chart, the USDX managed to perform a good rebound above the 200 SMA. We are currently watching a higher high pattern formation below the resistance zone of 98.09, which should be broken to the upside in order to test the next high around 98.40. The MACD indicator is entering the overbought territory.
When the European market opens, economic data on Retail Sales m/m, Italian Industrial Production m/m, Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, and Spanish Services PMI is due. The US will unveil data about Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, Trade Balance, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.
In Asia, Japan will not release economic data today, but the US is expected to publish data on Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, Trade Balance, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So, there is a strong probability than USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.


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Home Article Cape Medical Supply moves resupply online
Cape Medical Supply moves resupply online
By Leah Hoenen
Updated Fri August 22, 2014
SANDWICH, Mass. - Cape Medical Supply customers are hanging up the phone and logging in to a new online portal to reorder supplies.
"People like it a lot more," said Kevin Sheehan, director of business operations for New Hampshire and Maine.
Cape Medical invited customers whose email addresses it had on file—about one-third of them—to sign on to the portal in June. Within 48 hours, 15% signed up and about 10% placed orders.
Providers are fine-tuning their resupply systems because they know they're missing out on substantial recurring revenue, said Russell Parker, COO of Oklahoma City-based Revsuppliance.
"Based on Medicare allowables, it's at least $1,000 per person after cost of goods per year," he said.
Cape Medical uses a portal that asks the same questions as the automated voice system (both are Brightree products), but when it sends out reminders, the portal allows the company to include a line item describing the exact product that needs to be reordered.
The automated voice system—still available to those who prefer it—gives some people problems. The system might hear a response incorrectly, for example, and that can lead to fewer orders.
At the end of the day, the portal is more convenient for many patients, said Sheehan.
"You can check your email 24 hours a day, whereas a phone call only goes out at certain times," he said.
Cape Medical Supply, CPAP Resupply, Kevin Sheehan
Resupply: Make it easy
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Q. When it comes to CPAP resupply order fulfillment, is it better to outsource or do it yourself? A. This is where a great partner really makes sense. I have been discussing and analyzing this question with trusted HME providers for nearly 20 years. I have found that,...


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The Faith Trap
It's considered an essential virtue in many religions, without which salvation cannot be attained. Believers often talk about wanting more of it, strengthening it, trying not to lose it, and even criticise others for not having enough of it.
But what is faith? And what does it mean to have more or less of it?
Let's take a closer look...
Everyone defines faith slightly differently, so I want to make it clear that I'm not going to try to cover every definition. I'm only going to look at one definition (and variations of it).
The Bible's definition of faith is as follows:
Now faith is being sure of what we hope for, being convinced of what we do not see.
Hebrews 11:1 NET
On the surface this seems to be suggesting that to have faith that God exists is to be completely convinced that God exists. Further, if you read through the rest of the chapter, it provides many examples where people were completely convinced of their beliefs. In many cases they seemed to be convinced (enough to risk or sacrifice their lives) despite not having what we might consider sufficient evidence.
But other uses of the word "faith" throughout the Bible and in modern language do not support this view. For example, in the gospels, Jesus refers to people having "little faith". Several passages talk about the need to strengthen one's faith. And in modern vernacular, the idea of a weak or strong faith seems to refer to one's level of certainty or confidence that something is true.
If faith meant being completely certain, then it would be binary. You would either have it or you wouldn't. But since the Bible and modern believers refer to faith as something you can have more or less of, it follows that faith is more like a measure of confidence in a belief or claim. Thus it would not be a contradiction for someone to say they had some faith that God exists, but were not entirely convinced. The Bible seems to hold only criticism for such "weak" faith, but I would consider someone's admission of doubt far more honest and thus highly commendable.
Hebrews 11 seems to be at odds with the view that faith is more like a measure of confidence, and I will return to the Hebrews 11 view in just a moment.
What does it mean to increase in faith?
Using our above definition, increasing in faith would mean increasing in confidence that a particular claim (or set of claims) is true. I think this is consistent with what people really do mean when they talk about increasing their faith.
Likewise when someone discovers information that triggers doubt about existing beliefs, they may describe it as a loss of faith. In reality they may have actually gained information and perspective, but it can be difficult to see it that way at the time.
How does one increase their faith?
One way to increase one's level of confidence that a claim is true would be to discover new evidence that supports it. However, this is not the only way to increase faith. It seems that a person can increase in faith simply by being surrounded by others who agree with them. Having the same claim repeated multiple times can also increase someone's faith. Continual reinforcement of an idea, particularly if it is done since childhood, is sufficient to both produce and increase faith that the idea is true.
The critical point to note here is that how confident a person feels that a claim is true has no bearing at all on whether the claim is in fact true. It also need not depend on the quality of the evidence either. It is possible for a person to be fully confident that a claim is true, when in fact it is not true.
In some cases, evidence does not even factor in. In other cases, the evidence may be ambiguous, but a person may be biased and thus feel that certain evidence is conclusive when in fact it is not. Or they may feel confident that a claim is true due to only being aware of evidence that has been highly cherry-picked (perhaps unbeknown to them).
It is also possible (and common) for someone to hold a firm conviction in something they were taught since childhood, merely because they trust the person or people who taught them. They are then likely to pass on the same belief to their own children. Unless this cycle is deliberately broken, this can result in false ideas being perpetuated across several generations.
If we care at all about truth, we should attempt to question and research everything we were taught, regardless of who taught us. They were probably not deliberately lying, but may have been mistaken, especially if they never questioned it themselves. We should also teach our children the value of questioning things and discovering truth for themselves. It is also important to discuss and reason about our views with other people, in case they can provide insights we may have missed. Together we can venture closer to truth, which I believe provides many benefits both individually and to society.
The faith of Hebrews 11
The grand theme of Hebrews 11 is that faith is something that can provide sure hope and confidence in a belief or idea for which we do not have conclusive evidence. If there was conclusive evidence, we wouldn't call it "faith". It would be considered "knowledge" instead. Hebrews 11 is full of examples of people taking sometimes-heroic actions despite a lack of evidence in front of them. In many cases it says they believed they would be rewarded in an afterlife for doing so.
It seems common for people to argue that the faith of Hebrews 11 is like a kind of trust. That is, these people trusted what God had told them and it is that trust that carried them through. Perhaps that trust had previously been confirmed in some small miracle, and so they trusted that God would fulfil promises of a much greater one. I think this idea is probably sound in the (literary) context of this chapter, but it's difficult to translate it into a modern context.
It's not clear whether these biblical characters actually did receive unambiguous confirmation from a deity, or whether their trust was in fact misplaced. If modern believers claim to have received some revelation directly from a deity in an unambiguous way, then that needs to be demonstrated. However, if modern believers merely trust that some information they have actually originated from a deity, then they need to show how they reached that conclusion, and think very carefully about whether they are mistaken. The fact that many believers feel the same way about other holy books should provide a strong case for doubt.
Before one can have complete confidence that a deity has spoken directly to them, or even that a deity exists, one must first consider any alternative explanations. Given that it is far easier to fool oneself into thinking that a deity exists, rather than that a deity actually exists, it seems far more reasonable to maintain some level of doubt or uncertainty until conclusive evidence becomes available. In the same way, given that it is far more likely, and more common, for people to claim that a deity spoke to or through them, rather than for a deity have actually spoken through them, it again seems far more reasonable to be skeptical of any such claims.
Is faith virtuous?
But what about the idea of persevering in a belief despite a lack of conclusive evidence or even opposing evidence? Hebrews 11 appears to hold this as virtuous, but would it be considered virtuous for people of other religions to do this? Hardly.
If you are encouraged to hold onto a belief even when the evidence overwhelmingly doesn't support it (or worse, points the other way), how could this be considered a good thing? This idea would support gullibility, and could result in people believing any number of crazy ideas for which the evidence is weak or non-existent. How could such an idea lead to truth? It instead assumes that one already has truth ahead of time (how was that determined?), and completely closes the mind to alternatives.
If you wouldn't condone such strong conviction in the face of contradictory evidence from people in other religions, then you shouldn't condone it in your own religion either. Rather, everyone should be always open to new evidence, and be prepared to change their views accordingly as appropriate. This is simply the intellectually honest thing to do.
Is faith blind?
There is another popular modern definition of faith as simply "belief without any evidence", but I have heard so many believers disagree with that definition that I don't think it is representative enough. This kind of faith is typically called "blind faith", and even many believers seem to accept that blind faith is not really distinguishable from self-deception, and therefore not desirable. One could in theory have blind faith that there are large, purple unicorns on the moon. It's not of much use when it comes to determining what is real.
But what about faith that extrapolates beyond the available evidence? What about faith that offers conviction where the evidence is not conclusive, or where alternative explanations exist? Surely such faith is at least partially blind, in that it seeks to hold firmly to a conclusion that may in fact be false?
It's easy to think of scenarios where this kind of "faith" would not be justified nor recommended. For example, if a judge did not have enough evidence to prove a suspect guilty, but instead had "faith" that the suspect was guilty, should this judge be allowed to deliver a guilty verdict based on that faith? I think not. In such cases, clearly conclusive evidence is superior to faith.
Is faith reliable as a method for finding truth?
Is it possible for someone to have strong faith in a claim that is not in fact true?
Clearly, yes, it is possible.
As a Christadelphian, or a member of any faith-based religion, you would agree that people in other religions also have faith in things you believe to be false.
So clearly faith is not necessarily reliable. But can it be reliable at all?
Imagine a table upon which is a sealed, opaque, solid wooden box. Your task is to correctly identify what is in the box. You must choose only one of the following methods:
You may use faith to determine what is inside the box.
You may open the box and look inside.
Which of these methods do you think would be the most reliable?
Clearly the second method would be more reliable than merely using faith. Faith in this case would be no better than merely guessing, which is obviously unreliable. I would even accept prayer as a substitute for option 1 and nothing would change. You are encouraged to test this as many times as you like.
Based on this same reasoning I would argue that observation and experiment is always superior and more reliable than faith for determining what is true regarding reality. By contrast, faith is demonstrably unreliable.
But what about claims we cannot test? For example, what about the existence of God? Or what about miracle claims?
Well, all we need to do is return to the example above and ask a simple question:
Would the reliability of option 1 be affected at all by the removal of option 2?
And the answer to that is clearly 'no'.
Therefore, faith is no more reliable for untestable claims than it is for testable ones. And since it is demonstrably unreliable for testable claims, we can conclude that it is unreliable for untestable claims as well.
By the way, I was generous in the above example by suggesting a wooden box. Since such boxes are real, and finite in size, we would have a head start because we could have some idea of the kinds of objects that might fit in such a box, and the kinds of objects that would be likely to be in such a box. Since faith is essentially nothing more than a guess, we would expect faith to produce correct results no more often than blind chance. This could be tested via experiment, and I would be fairly confident of the results.
But suppose we didn't know what the box was made of, how big it was, or even if it was made of atoms (i.e. normal physical matter). Suppose there was a near infinite range of hypothetical possibilities for what could be in the box. When it comes to faith in things that might exist beyond our knowledge of reality, this is about where you stand. Do you really think faith is going to produce reliable results? How confident are you that you guessed correctly?
Why is faith required at all?
Having determined above that faith is inherently unreliable, it seems that it would be a poor choice for trying to determine what is really true in our world. We have a far better method available for that, namely the scientific method (or observation and experimentation).
As demonstrated above, the use of faith would almost never arrive at truth. The fact that most faith-based claims are also not testable only means we don't even know how badly we missed the mark.
So why would the Bible (and other religious texts) require faith and value it so highly?
I offer you two possible suggestions:
God wants to reward only those lucky enough to guess correctly in a sea of possibilities with unknown probability (also highly influenced by and correlated with the beliefs of their parents and the country in which they were born).
Those who wrote the Bible did not actually have any solid evidence that their god was real (though they almost certainly believed it), and insisted on the use of faith.
Perhaps there are more, but I think the point is pretty clear. The situation we are in matches exactly what we would expect if the Bible and other holy books were not actually inspired.
Just have faith? In what?
I have often been told by believers that "you just have to have faith", or "that's why faith is required". It's like the ultimate "get out of jail free" card when they've run out of evidence.
The thing is, most religions demand the same thing, and so there's no way to determine which of these untestable claims might be true.
Also, at this point, if we've reached the end of the evidence trail, surely any "faith" component that is needed to cover the shortfall would be decidedly "blind", no?
In these circumstances, I see the following options:
Despite inconclusive evidence, jump to one's preferred conclusion anyway, and call it "faith".
Withhold belief until conclusive evidence is found. In the meantime, any belief is tentative, and only as far as the available evidence reaches. Anything beyond that is speculative and an appropriate degree of uncertainty should be adopted.
It is a little disconcerting how many believers rush to option 1 here.
The analogy I like to use is that of evidence being the narrow, solid path you're walking along when forming beliefs and at its edge is a steep drop. In addition, the path is often surrounded by thick fog, representing how little we actually know. We are still discovering where the path goes. In this analogy, science at least provides fog-lights. Where I prefer to stop at the edge and search for more solid evidence, believers appear to adopt the faith option and gleefully leap over the edge, all the while believing they are on solid ground. When forming beliefs about our reality I can't see a good reason to prefer option 1 over option 2. Beliefs should follow evidence.
Reality does not conform to what we believe. Beliefs should be subject to reality. Sometimes I am not sure whether everyone understands that.
You are free to believe what you like, and have faith if you must, but reality does not care. You can step off a tall building with all the faith in the world and gravity will still do its thing. I don't recommend you try. You could claim that it wasn't God's will for you to fly, and I could claim it was Zeus's will that you didn't. It's always rather convenient that the will of the gods just happens to align with the laws of physics.
In this article I have shown why faith is unreliable and is a very poor choice of method for determining what is true in reality.
If you really want to know what is true, you need to ask better questions. You probably already have a good idea of how to determine whether claims made by another religion are true. It's time to point that skepticism at your own beliefs. The goal isn't to attack your beliefs or tear it down. The goal is to determine what is true and enrich your world view. If your beliefs are not true, then why continue believing them?
Faith cannot provide answers. It only offers guesses at answers. It also often stifles further questions, which only prevents you from discovering truth.
Rather than use faith, try just following the evidence, and asking questions. It's ok to accept that you don't know everything. Accept the limits of your knowledge, and be honest about what you don't know. It's perfectly ok to be uncertain about lots of things. Life is inherently uncertain. It's just honest to accept and admit it.
Faith only offers a false sense of certainty. The feeling of certainty has no bearing on what is true. People of other religions feel just as certain about their faith-based beliefs as you do about yours.
If you are convinced about something where the evidence is inconclusive, what makes you so convinced? What makes you sure you're not just deceiving yourself?
How do you tell the difference between faith and self-deception?
Divine Santa
Good without God?
Inerrancy? Jesus didn't say that.


I was in Fargo for a hockey tournament, but took some time out to do a recon run on 8 miles of the Fargo Marathon route for Neil, who is considering that race. I was giving him a hard time about doing it, but now I feel a little bad. It was no Superior or Twin Cities route for me, but it was an enjoyable, low-brow run with a small-town feel. It reminded me of a 22-miler I did through Cedar Falls and Waterloo, Iowa while training for Grandma's Marathon.
The mileage I did was in the middle and was very residential. My guess is you would have a lot of spectators for most of the route. I did brief segment that went through the quaint area of downtown Fargo and that was nice; though I would be tempted to stop at Sammy's pizza and risk a DNF.
I think I even ran the "hilly" parts of the course – which were actually just running the dips of underpasses. I think the thighs will be alright on this one.
Anyhow, this is definitely a flat and fast course. Though I'm not really fast on any course.
I also had a successful test of keeping food and hydration warm: I took water bottles and Gatorade, put them upside down in wool socks (so any freezing wouldn't freeze the lids in place, it would be at the bottom), put gels and Clif bars in the socks, added hand warmer packets, and then stuffed them in my Nathan Endurance vest. They stayed room temperature and drinkable for 2+ hours in -15F temps, very cool!
I might be going surfing! I am still finalizing plans, but it looks like this monkey might be going surfing in a little over a month.
This is a rather unknown surfing spot in the Midwest, that has only been surfed for the last two years. The "waves" are more gentle than some of the waves you would find on the North Shore. I won't need a wetsuit, even though its in Minnesota in late October. I probably won't even bring a board.
Any idea where I will be surfing?
I'm invigorated to have another event on the calendar. I'm even working with Vespa to test out their amino acid supplements for this event, and will report my findings. Surf's up!