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When you're opening a business then you probably will have to look for some tax services for a small business. We very often begin by looking into the local phonebook. However, the choices can be overwhelming and you might find it difficult to pick which one to use. Maybe you can just ask a few small business owners as regards the tax service company they are using. They would have already completed their research and can help narrow down the list you have. This way, you can locate which tax service is going to fit your needs.
You also need to consider the kind of help that you need. You probably just need somebody to file the claims for you while going over the accounting documents of your small business. Maybe you have a number of employees and you would like some help in the preparation of your tax withholdings. Or you do not know anything about taxes for a small business and you need a service that will be able deal with it. When you have narrowed down the kind of small business tax services you need, you will then be able to proceed with the search quite easily.
Among the most important things that you have to do when searching for small business tax services would be to locate one that you are comfortable with. Keep in mind that you are going to entrust your financial information to the tax service provider, so you need to find one that you can really trust. Qualifications along with referrals are not at all times a good benchmark of trust. Take time, if you can, talk to some clients of a particular advisor in the past and ask for feedback about their service.
Every newly established business will require some support with its taxes at one point. With the numerous rules and regulations to adhere to, people usually let pass some deductions, which they could have otherwise taken advantage of. A Manchester small business taxes service provider can really help you find deductions that you never even thought were possible. So, go out there and get the assistance you need.
Dealing with an auto repair company that is not professional can make the condition of your car worse. Although there are several auto repair companies in the market, not all of them will meet your needs. What should you look out for when choosing an auto repair company? Your search for the right auto repair company can be much easier with the tips below.
Also, it is important you check where the auto repair company is based. It will be easier for you to take the car for the repairs, if the company is based in your area. To find auto repair companies from your area, search online.
How long has the auto repair company been operating? The longer the duration of time the company has been offering the auto repair services, the better. The company has diverse knowledge about auto repair from their many years of experience. You can know the number of years of experience the auto repair company has by checking on their website.
Also, the company should be insured. If the mechanics injure themselves when doing the auto repair, the insurance company will pay for their medical bills.
Does the auto repair company have a good reputation in the market? When checking the reviews, ensure you are checking from trusted sources online. It is advisable you read several testimonies and reviews. The more positive reviews the auto repair company has, the better.
What are the working hours of the auto repair company? If you want to take your car for the repairs on Saturday, choose a company that operates during the weekend. It is important you ask the auto repair company about their working hours.
When choosing an auto repair company, put your budget into consideration. Different companies charge differently for auto repair services. Although you should consider cost when choosing an auto repair company, the cheapest in most cases will not offer you the best services.
The reasons, why you ought to hire a landscaping contractor, are limitless. The value of your property will be improved by the landscaping contractor you will choose. Your yard, as well as the plants, will be protected from pest infestation by providing additional services. The sad truth is that some landscaping contractors do not honour their word. It is therefore prudent to make some considerations before you choose a landscaping contractor. Continue reading to see more things you should look at before you hire a landscaping contractor.
There is no doubt the landscaping sector has been plagued by several sketchy landscaping contractors. As such, there is every need to look into each landscaping contractor you come across. Since it is impossible to look at each available option, it would be best to narrow down your options. Asking your neighbours, friends as well as your relatives to give you authentic referrals and recommendation is something you have to do. Look at the suitability of all the landscaping contractors you will get by searching online. Other experts such as your plumbers and pest control experts can also connect you to the leading landscaping contractors in your area.
Secondly, you will need to look at the location of the landscaping contractor you are considering. Looking at the location of the landscaping contractor is important contrary to popular belief. Looking for a landscaping contractor near you is something you should do as a result. You will only find a landscaping contractor near you if you ask around. For you to find an Aurora landscaping contractor you will also need to look at the Aurora business listings.
At this stage, you probably have a handful of options to choose from. The best way of narrowing down your options is by looking at the success rate of the landscaping contractors that you are considering. Looking at the amount of projects each landscaping contractor has completed is one of the things you should do before making your final decision. As you do that, you will also need to at the number of unsuccessful projects for each contractor you are considering. You should always hire a landscaping contractor who has a high rate of accomplishment.
To conclude, you will have to use a checklist to find a landscaping contractor who will provide you with quality landscaping services. Begin by thinking about the licensing and certification of the landscaping contractors you are checking. It would also be best to look at the training of the landscaping contractor that you want to pick.
When choosing a truck repair shop, it is important not to pick just any shop around. Choosing a repair shop that will do the job well initially is important. It will save you time and also money. Since truck repair shops are lucrative; the market is saturated with them. Hence why it is crucial to pick the right repair shop for your truck. Here are important factors to Think about when making your choice.
Technology utilized at the shop. Technology has reduced the workload in just about all areas. Pick a repair shop that uses the most recent equipment. They should have a wide range of equipment that can deal with any type of repair. With Up to date technology, your truck should be taken care of quickly. This will lessen the time spent for you that is very important.
Reputation of the repair shop. What past and present clients of a repair shop have gone through is important. It aids you to be aware of what to anticipate at a repair shop. A perfect way to acquire this data is via online reviews. Online ratings of the repair shop are very helpful. The assist you in judging the quality of service to expect. You can as well converse with customers and get their sentiments on a repair shop. This will aid you in making your decision.
Certifications of a repair shop. You should ensure a repair shop has the certificates allowing them to provide their services. This helps you know that they are qualified for the job. It equally guarantees high standard of work to be done. Acquire information on the mechanics employed. Ascertain that they meet the qualifications and are certified as well.
Location of a repair shop. Having a repair shop that you can easily access is key. It reduces the time required to get over there.
The size of a repair shop. The space available a repair shop influences the number of repairable trucks at a given time. This plays a huge part in the amount of time your truck will be there. Picking a repair shop with sufficient mechanics is prudent. The reason being that your truck will be catered to immediately it gets there.
Trust is crucial as well when selecting a repair shop. You need to have confidence in a repair shop when leaving your truck there. The transparency of a repair shop should always be there. This is a perfect trust earner. It equally provides you with more confidence on how your well your truck will be catered to.
It could be that you are contemplating on getting Mezuzahs in your home but are not sure why this is a great option. One of the reasons you should do this is that it is something that will bring blessings in your home. This is something that the Jews have known to be doing for a long time. When you have it in your home, then you can be assured that things are less likely to go wrong.
When you do this, then you should note that you will be able to show the Jewish pride.Some of the things that you should note is that when you are getting the product then you should note that it is one thing that you should have one Mezuzahs on your doors and another to have it on all the doors. You should note that this is something which can be used as a conversation starter. This is one of the ways that you can show that you are proud of your Jewish roots.
Some of the things that you should note is that when you get the Mezuzahs then this is one of the things that will aid you when you are educating your children. In this generation children are exposed to many things through the media and the television. When you have things in the house that reminds that you are a Jew, then this is one of the easy ways that you can use to pass the heritage to the children.
The other reason you should make use of this option is to keep up with tradition. Some of the things that you should put in mind is that the Jew people have been in exile from their home for about 2000 years. Thus, this is the reason that they are a minority and have been persecuted throughout history. If this is the case, then you should note that if one of the ancestor would have thought of giving up on the culture then you should note that the Jewish culture will not have been there.
You should also think of getting the product since it is a Mitzvah. The other reason you should get the commodity is that it is a commandment. The thing you should note is that the command of the Torah are given to our benefits. The thing you should note is that it is paramount to keep them as it is something that can be used to bring blessings to your lives. Some of the things you should note is that if this is the case then you will end up bringing light to the world.
The idea of getting the best carpet cleaning service is not as simple as one would think. One needs to have something done for the reason of getting the best. One has a duty of choosing the most fulfilling carpet cleaning company as these companies are a lot in the market. Identifying the right carpet cleaning services might be one bewildering duty to conduct. Getting the right carpet cleaning services need not be a bewildering task at all cases as one has some concepts he needs to follow at all times. If you can get the best carpet cleaner, it will be simple to get the best and quality services.
The price charge is one point that should be your first guideline as you search for the best carpet cleaning services. Cost charges are seen to be a point varying from one carpet cleaner to the next. Some options of carpet cleaners can charge you high while others a lower charge of their services. If you at any time come across these cases of carpet cleaners, you only need to get the cleaners that you can pay with ease and those that offer the best and standard services.
There is the idea of reputation you should be considerate about whenever you are looking for a suitable carpet cleaner. There are the carpet cleaners you will encounter in the market having an already built reputation. Also, others are seen to have a bad reputation. Anytime you come across these choices, you only need to work with the reputable carpet cleaners, and you will have an assurance of getting the best and quality services which is the desire of every person.
During your search on the right carpet cleaners, you need to be keen on the bit of the services you get as a customer. There are the carpet cleaners well known to serve their clients excellently, and you need to have them as your choice whenever you need to have the cleaning of your carpet. These are the carpet cleaners you will be confident with at all times as they serve you. Hence, it is always simple t get suitable carpet cleaners especially when one is keen all through the process.
Sometimes, it can be very difficult for somebody to be able to construct a perfect home especially given that there are some very important decisions that can prove to be very difficult to make. Hiring the services of a roofing contractor is always known to be one of the most important decisions that you will always make when constructing a home. Choosing the best roofing company is not enough because you will have to consider determining which type of thing that you may want to consider installing in your home. There are so many options available when it comes to choosing the best type of roofing to install in your home especially given that there is metal roofing, tile roofing and also shingle roofing. Your decision to acquire the services of a roofing company will always depend on the type of roofing that you will choose and this is the main reason why you need to ensure that you look for the best roofing company. Majority of tile roofing companies are known to be using tiles to ensure that the roof is well installed.
It is without a doubt that you will have to pay for the services of the specific tile roofing company that you will hire and therefore, you may want to consider finding out how much you will have to part with. Looking at how much you will need to get the best tile roofing company can help you a lot in determining which particular tile roofing company has the ability to provide you the services at an affordable rate. Roofing is always known to be very risky and therefore, you should always go for a roofing company that has an insurance cover from a trusted insurance company. You can get referrals from some people who may have an experience with tile roofing companies in your area.
Due to an increased rate of cleaning services people have a hard time in choosing the proper cleaning firm. If you need to enjoy the credible septic tank cleaning service you need to pay some attention to some aspects to ensure that you hire the best firm. There are aspects that you need to consider when hiring a septic tank cleaner. You can discover more on the factors that you need to ponder when finding a septic tank cleaning firm on this article.
The professionalism of the septic tank cleaning service needs to the prime aspect in your list. For commendable results at the end of the day then choose a competent septic tank cleaning service. The society has funny persons who can give you false details regarding their diplomas just to secure that job. Here it is wise to have a look on their credentials. A well-trained septic tank cleaning firm can give you the best service. You need to know that skilled cleaning firm can complete the task in a day.
There is equipment that has to be used in this department. It is vital to know if the cleaner has these materials in a couple of minutes they can do the task and efficiently. Therefore, you need to ensure that you hire a septic tank cleaning service with these tools. Go to the potential cleaning firm and see if they have these tools.
You must pay some attention to the success rate of the cleaner you intend to hire in this case. The cleaner with a high success rating gives the best cleaning service. You need to be considerate to make sure that you don't work with a septic tank cleaning service with a negative repute. In this case, you need to start by fining about the repute of the qualified firm. The individuals who have employed the company can be of great help at this point. The review of the clients online as well can give you more information.
Finalize by looking at the salary of the septic tank cleaning service. You must have huge total cash to afford this service. Therefore, start by doing some calculation and get to know the money you have to hire this service. The next step after budgeting is meeting up with many cleaners just asking about their charges. You need to hire a septic tank cleaning service with a reasonable salary. If you chose a company with an affordable salary be confident that you can never have a hard time when it comes to payment. You must ask one cleaner to reduce the charge if all have unfordable wages.
There is an added beauty when the paintings are used. There are several colors of paints that can be used to paint such places. You can decide to do the paintings buy yourself. The painting that you make may not turn out to be the best. They may not be able to choose the paint colors very well and may not have the skills needed to apply the paints. They may have to seek the services of a commercial painting firm to help you. There are very many commercial printing firms that are in the market. This makes it challenging for the customers to settle on the perfect firm to pint their properties. So many tips can be used to get a commercial painting firm. Reading below you will get factors that may offer guidance to the search of commercial painting firms.
The first factor to consider when choosing a commercial company is the skills that the employees shave. The workers of the company are those who are sure of the activities of the provision of the services. They should be well trained to offer the services. They are supposed to have skills that are related to painting. This means that they were trained in offering quality services to the customers.
The second factor that may be considered when choosing a commercial painting firm is the quality of the services that the firm has been offering. The firm chosen should be the one that offers very high-quality paintings. They will be able to choose the best color to use in the paintings. Examples are given of the paintings that had been done in the past. The number of projects that the firm has carried out should be seen and can be verified. They may need to show some of the customers that have been received services of the company before. The customers need to see some of the paintings that the company has offered in the recent past.
The customers may look at how the customers have rated the services of the company. The time that the firm has taken in the industry can be used decide on one of the firms to offer services to the customers. Being in the market for a long period gives the company a lot of time to interact with the customers. The company may receive different opinions from the customers. They provide this through the website of the company. The customers can give both negative and positive reviews of the firm. The selection should be based on the number of positive reviews. The company may not be chosen because of the negative reviews.
In conclusion, several factors may be considered when choosing a commercial painting company.


Jeannette Zeck loved gardening with her husband — so much so, the couple decided to start a volunteer organization from their Oak Park home to promote the growth of plants native to the area.
When her husband converted to Buddhism five years ago, she saw the impact the religion had on him and soon converted, too.
Ms. Zeck spent almost three decades working for the Chicago Laborers Pension and Welfare Funds, helping workers sort through their options when it came time for their benefits to be paid out.
"My wife was the most supportive person you could ever imagine," said Ms. Zeck's husband, David Murphy.
Ms. Zeck died suddenly on Wednesday. She was 50.
Most recently a resident of Oak Park, Ms. Zeck grew up in Lake County, attending high school in Grayslake.
She met her husband on their first day at Knox College in Galesburg. Although the two took notice of each other right away, they didn't go on their first date until the following year on March 5, 1987. They had been together ever since and married in September 1998.
In the early 90s, while working toward a master's degree in psychology at DePaul University, Ms. Zeck took a job at a shelter for the homeless women in West Town. Working shifts that either started or ended at midnight, Ms. Zeck counseled and cooked for the women at the shelter, and found deep gratification in service to others.
"She really took great pleasure and pride in helping people who needed help," her husband said.
Ms. Zeck later started a job in the mail room of the Chicago Laborers Pension and Welfare Funds. She worked her way up to become director of the pension department, overseeing a staff of 16.
Ms. Zeck also found she had a passion for gardening when she and her husband began growing their own food at their Oak Park home while experimenting with new diets.
The gardening led to Murphy's interest in environmentalism. With his wife's persevering support, they started the Deep Roots Project, an organization that promotes the use of native plants and growing healthy foods.
Working together last year, the couple planted parkway gardens in front of 16 homes in the area.
And when Murphy, who grew up Catholic, decided to convert to Buddhism, Ms. Zeck saw the impact it had on his life and soon made the switch herself.
"She was right by my side every step of the way," Murphy said.
Ms. Zeck was preceded in death by her parents Harold and Catherine Zeck, her sister Elizabeth Zeck and her brother Stephen Zeck. She is survived by her husband David Murphy, her sisters Patricia Carlson and Theresa O'Reilly and her brother David Zeck.
Though Ms. Zeck and Murphy didn't have children, Ms. Zeck considered her five nieces and two nephews — Elizabeth, Nicole, Megan, Shelbie, Alexia, Michael and Louis — to be her own.
Visitation is 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. Monday at O'Neil Funeral Home & Heritage Crematory, 1105 E. 9th St., in Lockport, with a service at 7 p.m. Interment will be private.
In lieu of flowers, Ms. Zeck's family has asked for donations in her honor to the Kadampa Meditation Center Chicago.


Figure 22 in King Hubbert's report "Nuclear Energy and Fossil Fuels," Publication No. 95, Shell Development Company, Exploration and Production Research, Houston, TX, June 1956.
King Hubbert tried to address the question of finite resources and today we know he was wrong.
Even though Hubbert cycles emerge for individual oil provinces, they cannot emerge for the world.
We have been predicting the peak of global oil production for a long time and it never happened up until now.
Technology will always be ahead of geology and, therefore, we will continue to produce ever more petroleum each year, just from different places, and at a higher price.
Oil shale plays in the U.S. and elsewhere are such technological game changers that they will offset the ongoing declines of the conventional petroleum reservoirs such as Ghawar, Burgan, Cantarell, Samotlor, Prudhoe Bay, and many others.
I definitely encroached on the deeply held, personal beliefs of some of the members of my audience, and they became rather upset with me. But their arguments are at the center of the national myth in the U.S., which means that I am in a small and unpopular minority.
These people believe that perpetual growth is desirable, consequently it must be possible, and so it can't possibly be a problem. At the same time there are still a few remaining "spherical earth" people who go around talking about "limits" and in particular about the limits that are implied by the term "carrying capacity." But limits are awkward, because limits conflict with the concept of perpetual growth, so there is a growing move to do away with the concept of limits.
"The Physics Teacher," Vol. 34, No. 6, pp. 342-343, 1996.
Let me try to address points 1-3 above with the graph below. I have digitized King Hubbert's original prediction of global oil production from his 1956 Shell Development Co. report. I have superimposed the actual history of world's production of crude oil (petroleum) and the associated lease condensate liquids in millions of barrels of oil per day (MBOPD). Over the last 8 years, this rate oscillated around 72-74 MBOPD despite of the whole world trying to do its best to meet the ever-growing demand for petroleum.
King Hubbert's prediction of global oil and lease condensate production revisited 54 years later. The actual production data are from a combination of EIA statistics and other sources for the early production. It seems that Hubbert got the timing of the plateau (peak) of oil production almost perfectly, and he was off by a factor of two in the production level. He could not have possibly accounted for the offshore production in the North Sea, Nigeria, Angola, Brazil, deepwater GOM, etc. He had no way of predicting the discoveries and ascent of Cantarell, Tengiz, Majoon, Samotlor, Zakum, Prudhoe Bay, and many other supergiant oilfields. Most of these supergiant fields have now been discovered and it is increasingly unlikely that more will be discovered in the future. Hubbert's data said nothing about about the impact of 3D seismic, deviated wells, horizontal wells, massively hydrofractured wells, drilling in two kilometers of seawater, etc. Yet, almost 60 years ago, Hubbert was off by a factor of two in the production level and perfect in the timing of the peak. Now think about an economic forecast for the entire world that is this good after mere 10 years. If you find one, please share it with me and I'll refer to it in this blog.
Given the incredible impact technology (point 4 above) has had on petroleum production worldwide over the last 60 years, Hubbert's prediction is close to a miracle, demonstrating that the sum of uncorrelated random variables (annual increments of oil & condensate production from all oilfields in the world) with arbitrary distributions and finite variances does tend to a Gaussian, no matter what economists and other laymen say. Hubbert simply did not have enough random variables in his data set, because these variables were still in the future when he plotted his Figure 22. In the intervening six decades, technology created by people like me brought these new random variables (oilfields) to life and doubled the production outcome, but did not change the location of the peak.
Point 5 needs careful addressing beyond the scope of this simplistic blog. Basically, if the power expenditure necessary to produce a resource is greater than the power delivered by that resource, production will stop even if payments are in pure gold. The large mudstone formations, falsely called "shales," are very difficult to produce and a lot of power must be invested for these formations to produce power as light crude oil. Thus our ability to produce the low-quality impermeable mudstones at sustained rates reminiscent of the high-quality permeable oil fields, like Ghawar or Cantarell, is nil. Period. I'll leave it to the real experts: journalists, economists and fifth graders, to paint a pink rosy picture of the new limitless opportunities.
Now let me focus on my other favorite subject: demonstration of the cosmic arrogance and limitless ignorance of some economists. My least favorite economist, Dr. Julian Simon, is famous for his belief that there are no limits to growth, and for "defeating" Professor Paul Ehrlich in the equally famous commodity bet.
As Professor Bartlett dryly observed, even if Simon was off by a factor of 1,000 (economists habitually are off by a lot) in his estimate of duration of the future expansion of humanity (7 million, not 7 billion years), and humanity grew by only 1 percent per year, the number of humans would exceed 10 to the power 30,410. It turns out that Simon's prediction of the number of humans supported by technology and economics is 1 followed by 30,000 zeros times larger (like in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000...) than the number of atoms in the Universe. How does Hubbert's factor of 2 strike you now?
My other all-time favorite is a 3-day prediction by Irving Fisher, a Yale economics professor, who on October 21, 1929, stated: "Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." Three days later, Black Thursday ushered the United States into the Great Depression. Recently, another genius economist from Princeton declared that oil was irrelevant to modern economies.
My first personal encounter with the high-power economic forecasting was at Shell. Shell paid a fortune to Goldman Sachs, Chase Manhattan Bank, Deutsche Bank, and a dozen other organizations for the crude oil price forecasts spanning a range from 1 to 30 years. Shell was very happy with these forecasts, until we plotted all of them together, with several years of starting points. All the zigzags would start tangentially to the last segment of real data and then would wander off in every which direction literally covering the entire page like tangled spaghetti, with the predicted end-prices ranging from $5 per barrel to $300 per barrel. We concluded that these very expensive economic guesses had no predictive capability, and settled on a constant low oil price for business planning. Since the year was 1985, that rough engineering guess was good for almost 20 years and cost nothing.
Seest thou how God with his lightning smites always the bigger animals, and will not suffer them to wax insolent, while those of a lesser bulk chafe him not? How likewise his bolts fall ever on the highest houses and the tallest trees? So plainly does He love to bring down everything that exalts itself. Thus ofttimes a mighty host is discomfited by a few men, when God in his jealousy sends fear or storm from heaven, and they perish in a way unworthy of them. For God allows no one to have high thoughts but Himself.
History of Herodotus, VII, 10, translated by George Rawlinson (1910).
Come to think of it, I have not seen recently any economists sacrificing their best rams or bulls as offerings to God, so that He may shine some light on the opaque magic they call forecasting.
An economic forecaster at work. Now you can see more clearly why we believe the economic dilettantes so much.
P.S. And here is how the 1972 predictions of the widely discredited Club of Rome look like 30 years later. Did you check them? Not bad for a bunch of ignorant fools those scientists were according to Dr. Simon and every other main-stream whatever. Now think for one second what will happen if their predictions continue to hold on this finite spherical Earth? Yes, I can hear you saying : "Why bother thinking about such unpleasant things? We shall always get more, way more of everything with our superior technology. We always did."
P.S.P.S. I deeply value wisdom of some economists. In particular, Professor Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen has changed my life forever. My two-year study of his magnum opus, "The Entropy Law and the Economic Process," 1971, Harvard University Press: Cambridge, Massachusetts, and the dozens of monographs he quoted there, changed my outlook on everything, and made me a different scientist. The writings of Professors Filip Mirowski and Herman Daly have also impressed me greatly. The problem is that these giants of science have been thoroughly ignored by the mere technicians and dilettantes (see the photo above), who also call themselves main-stream economists.
Great post. I'm in your camp here, but to examine our views, what if it is possible to continue increasing natural gas liquids and unconventional oil and keep the plateau going despite conventional's decline? I feel like I have invested much mental energy, as have many peak oilers, in the idea that the peak will come and go, not become a decades-long plateau. And despite Hirsch's expectation that we are only a couple of years away from the long decline in production, that decline seems to be nowhere in sight.
That's a popular 'what if?'; the question of a scenario in which some combination of technology and resources will serve to extend the energy plateau. It seems pretty obvious that prolonged usage of fossil fuels will further contribute to anthropogenic climate warming. Also, from what I've read and believe to have understood (e.g. Limits To Growth 30 Yr Update), there are such a great many significant factors pointing toward an overshoot and collapse scenario within the next generation, that such an extension of conventional finite resources will become moot. Nobody seems any good at forecasting details, but the basic behavior of our human system and of nature, seems to have some pretty well established and generally predictable patterns.
Great post, I am very pleased to have found your blog. It is a mystery to me, yet I think it says something about the nature of life on this planet, that Daniel Yergin and Paul Krugman are hailed as visionaries while no one knows who Albert Bartlett is. It seems to me that humanity is on a collision course with hard limits to growth. The global economic system seems like the kind of complex system that is doomed to fail when under duress. Yet the modern day temple priests (economists) insist human ingenuity will overcome all obstacles, so never mind that brick wall we are speeding towards.
I view the economic system as the arena where finite resource depletion, particularly crude oil, will hit first. Maybe I am a bad person or confused, but I am hoping that Export Land Model will destroy the global economy before we start down the backside of crude oil production. I feel that the 2008 economic collapse will prove to be terminal, like a stroke that leaves the patient on life support. If the respirator of stimulus money and massive government debt is shut off, the patient will immediately die. I hope this is the case because I believe man will completely destroy what is left of our ecosystems if we continue industrial civilization for much longer. Then humanity is left in massive overshoot with a degraded environment that will support even less post industrial humans. Pay now or pay later, I say pay now. And thanks to the brilliant leadership of the cultist of the human ingenuity sect (economist), it looks like we may pay sooner rather than later.
Living over Marcellus shale I am very frightened of industrial scale unconventional natural gas production wrecking my county. One failed well casing in my area and my aquifer could be down for a million years. The thought of midnight haulers dumping waste water, with no regulatory body like the Texas Railroad Commission to keep contractors honest, keeps me up nights hoping for the demise of the big shale players. I realize you feel like unconventional gas could be a bridge to a new energy source, but I feel looking at the current leadership (billionaires) it is a bridge to nowhere. Post industrial humans left with well casings of concrete and steel quietly degrading underground. I hope that view is overly pessimistic but I have imagined what would happen to the well casings in say one hundred years.
It is a shame that Albert Bartlett was not made permanent emergency dictator in 1970. I think that is what it would have taken to avoid the bitter harvest we are set to reap. I love your writing and look forward to reading through this whole blog. I hope I did not offend you with my thoughts on unconventional gas plays; I also wish the same for the oil sands and the tight oil plays as well. I really do love humanity I just think taking the medicine now is our best hope. It would be great to be proven wrong however.
The plateau of oil production we seem to be on right now is an ominous 40 years forward on the Hubbert curve model which forecast it. Maximum new discovery was in the mid 60s, we've been on this plateau since 2005 and no matter how high oil prices went after that, production output has hardly budged. That puts us right on the Hubbert 40 year schedule, and we seem to be scrambling for the last dregs of oil in the tarsands or oilshales, anything to keep our beloved wheels turning.
But that is not our greatest danger.
Consider those who advise our political masters that 'all is well' and that energy availability will go on, quite literally into infinity.
From reams of such nonsense, I quote Peter Huber, Graduate in Law from Harvard, and in Mechanical Engineering from MIT, currently senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Author of 'The Bottomless well' and numerous other learned works. A man of intellect obviously.
Yet he claims (in The Energy Spiral, 2002) : "the more energy humans use, the more they will be able to produce" his theory is that in the hundreds of millions of years of evolution, every species has always found new ways of absorbing and using energy, and humans are no different, we are constantly learning how to use greater amounts of energy. In his opinion, the more energy we burn, the better we get at finding more. Huber calls this a 'chain reaction', or even more bizarrely, a 'perpetual motion machine'.
That phrase alone should set alarm bells ringing, paricularly when suggested by someone who has advised the government on energy policy (Prepared Testimony of Peter W. Huber before the United States Senate Committee on Commerce, Science & Transportation, 10-1-02) . Exactly the words deniers of every shade want to hear, the sound scientific principle that we can not only eat as much cake as we want, but there will be more left than when we started eating.
Personally, I'm a graduate of the Micawber school of economics, but this time I fear that nothing is going to turn up.
Price is the answer to your "what if." When consumers can no longer purchase the increasingly expensive, craptacular oil, then you have a scenario that IS the ramification of peak - not the solution to it.
Great post, but I'm a little confused as to point #5, if something takes more energy to produce than you get from it,it will not be produced. I understand that agriculture takes 10 times the energy that you get from the food produced yet it is still done in this way. Fossil fuels are still used to produce the food that then gives us 1/10th the amount of calories. Why is this?
You are correctly pointing out a serious problem with our food supply. We mine fossil fuels to produce, process, store, and distribute the food like-edible substances most of us consume. This consumption is completely unsustainable, and most people have no idea that they regularly eat natural gas, crude oil, and coal.
My papers, "Thermodynamics of the Corn Ethanol Cycle," and "Thermodynamics of Agricultural Sustainability: The Case of U.S. Maze Agriculture," thoroughly discuss our dangerously degenerate food supply system.


Make every day an adventure with your little one in tow with the help of the City Mini Gt stroller from Baby Jogger. This three-wheel, all-terrain stroller helps you go where you want to with ease, and its easy-fold functionality makes it easy to take it with you in the car-so you'll always be ready for your next journey with baby.
After watching my the way my baby interacted with his toys, I realized he could benefit from subscription boxes dedicated to toys and play kits that help grow his developing mind—and your baby can, too.
On the heels of Princess Eugenie's wedding and Meghan Markle's pregnancy news, Pippa Middleton gave birth, but she only just revealed his name.
Top baby names tend to stay the same year after year, but these predictions for the top up-and-coming names might surprise you. Names.org recently released its predictions for what the most popular baby names of 2019 will be, plus their wildcard predictions for baby names that may see a sharp rise in 2019. Baby girl names, at least, are going in a natural direction.
Looking for a stately name for your newest member of the family? Here, some of our refined favorites.
These names have star power without being out of this world.
Powerful tribute to working moms, or TMI? Voters in Wisconsin will soon decide.
From our newlywed days, my husband and I both wanted at least five kids. Neither of us could have anticipated running completely out of gas seven years later. I wish I felt sadder about this, but I just don't.
You're going to want to get one for every new mom you know.


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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


The fully equipped greenhouse will include planting beds, irrigation, lighting and heating systems, aquaponics, rain catchment, composting, sorting tables and lab test kits. This space will support the college's Agriculture and Food Services career pathways and allow students in horticulture, culinary arts, STEM, early child education, and other programs to conduct lab experiments, grow and experiment with specialty vegetables, and more. Space in front of the greenhouse will be dedicated to community gardeners.
The greenhouse will also support The Food Project by providing additional growing space, creating hands-on learning opportunities for Dirt Crew and Root Crew, and supporting the Lynn Grows initiative.


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Vogue Star Saint Laurent First Biopic Atmospheres
Yves Saint Laurent Lip Gloss Concealer Video
Vogue Star Saint Laurent First Biopic Atmospheres: PARIS -- Yves Saint Laurent, the master of couture, has returned less than two years after his passing in a significant retrospective Monday that was previewed , covering his four decades as a Fashion designer whose artistry empowered women. When Saint Laurent declared his retirement at age 65 as well as the closure of the Paris-based Haute Couture house he'd founded 40 years earlier, it was mourned in the fashion world as the ending of an era. He was introduced to Christian Dior, subsequently regarded as the finest originator of his day, and Dior was so impressed with Saint Laurent's ability that he hired him on the spot. Saint Laurent returned in 1962 to the limelight, opening his own haute couture fashion house.
YSL enthusiasts can get to find some changes in the company with all the new creative director Hedi Slimane Hedi Slimane's aim is to target a fresh audience. Together with the support of YSL co-founder Pierre Berge the 2013 springtime ready to wear collection is likely to be called Saint Laurent Paris but nevertheless keep the recognizable YSL logo. In the movie, Saint Laurent comes across as aggravating, self-absorbed, destitute, arrogant, mean and irritable. Christian Dior runs a trend empire from Paris.
The hot women's tuxedo which has become interchangeable with the designer himself, with his le smoking, Yves Saint Laurent created an irresistible powerful androgyny that revealed women and men equally that femininity is not limited to some skirt. Brilliant work was done." The film was publicly opposed by Saint Laurent's remaining life and company partner Pierre Berge. St. Laurent lived at rue de Babylone, in the 7th arrondissement from 1972 until his departure in 2008.
Yves Saint Laurent the man will be remembered for changing the face of fashion more than once in his career and giving a number of the very major fashion instants of contemporary style history to us. Costume designer Patricia Field, who put the ladies of Sex and the City to their Manolo Blahnik shoes, makes Saint Laurent sound like a chic Che Guevara: "I believe he was one of the revolutionaries," she says.
This is not the initial time Berge is selling his set that is remarkable which he gathered with Yves - before he raised $ 500 million from selling pieces like Matisse, Picasso and Gainsborough, being a well-known antiquarian book dealer in Paris. WWD reports that next autumn, from the priceless collection of Pierre Berge, exquisite pieces can be purchased by the art fans in London, New York and Geneva, in collaboration with Sotheby. It's fascinating though that they only paxed just before Yves expired.
Some sales were preempted by the Musee d'Orsay, Centre Pompidou, the Louvre, and the wonderful French National Museum of the Renaissance, Chateau d'Ecouen (if you've not been there, it is a pleasant day trip from Paris that is easily done by train). The collection united their Old Master drawings, bronzes, paintings, sculptures, furniture, collectibles, as well as examples of YSL designs.
STAMBERG: Tumultuous, complicated passionate, decadent and drug-laced - the story of Yves Saint Laurent and Pierre Berge was a love story. The late-late celebration crowd was surely pleased to locate that YSL Beaute had tucked a gold tube of the renowned Concealer Touche Eclat into the gift bag alongside a bottle of Belle d'Opium (La Nuit d'Homme for the gents). The film is narrated by Pierre Berge, YSL's lifelong associate as well as business associate. He named Yves his successor.
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Article YSL Brand, Yves Saint Laurent Blazer Copyright © 2023 YSL-HauteCouture.com All rights reserved.


On first listen he's a Neil Young protege. But the more you listen the more you hear his character stand out — the bizarre and creepy lyrics, the experimentation and production, and his lo-fi pop sensibility. Some moments even feel like they could belong on the Women self-titled (which he produced, and who are his backing live band).
Love this guy…So much prescence and character-been exploring him on youtube..Molten Lights my favourite i've heard so far..amazing song..


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Forehand & Backhand Welding Methods
Published on December 12, 2019 December 1, 2019
Forehand Welding
Backhand Welding Method
Backhand Welding Illustration
Fillet Welding
Fillet Welding Illustration
There are three oxy-acetylene methods used that dictate where the flame is placed in relation to the weld.
Each is described in detail below including descriptions and illustrations of the forehand (leave the weld behind you and move right to left for right-handed people), backhand (flame directed toward the completed weld) and the fillet (weld of approximately triangular cross section, as used in a lap joint, joining two surfaces at approximately right angles to each other).
Typical Shielded Metal Arc Electrode Positioning and Welding Technique for Carbon Steel Electrodes – Table Detailing Differences in Welding Methods and Techniques based on joint type and welding position
In this method, the welding rod precedes the torch. The torch is held at approximately a 45 degree angle from the vertical in the direction of welding, as shown in figure 11-4. The flame is pointed in the direction of welding and directed between the rod and the molten puddle. This position permits uniform preheating of the plate edges immediately ahead of the molten puddle. By moving the torch and the rod in opposite semicircular paths, the heat can be carefully balanced to melt the end of the rod and the side walls of the plate into a uniformly distributed molten puddle. The rod is dipped into the leading edge of the puddle so that enough filler metal is melted to produce an even weld joint. The heat which is reflected backwards from the rod keeps the metal molten. The metal is distributed evenly to both edges being welded by the motion of the tip.
In general, the forehand method is recommended for welding material up to 1/8 in. (3.2 mm) thick, because it provides better control of the small weld puddle, resulting in a smoother weld at both top and bottom. The puddle of molten metal is small and easily controlled. A great deal of pipe welding is done using the forehand technique, even in 3/8 in. (9.5 mm) wall thick-nesses. In contrast, some difficulties in welding heavier plates using the forehand method are:
The edges of the plate must be beveled to provide a wide V with a 90 degree included angle. This edge preparation is necessary to ensure satisfactory melting of the plate edges, good penetration, and fusion of the weld metal to the base metal.
Because of this wide V, a relatively large molten puddle is required. It is difficult to obtain a good joint when the puddle is too large.
Forehand Welding Illustration – Figure 11-4: In forehand welding the torch and rod angles are 45 degrees as viewed by the operator and perpendicular (90 Degrees to the Work Surface as Viewed From the End of the Workpiece
In the backhand welding method, the torch precedes the welding rod, as shown in figure 11-5.
The torch is held at approximately a 45 degree angle from the vertical away from the direction of welding, with the flame directed at the molten puddle.
The welding rod is between the flame and the molten puddle.
This position requires less transverse motion than is used in forehand welding.
Torch and Rod Angles are 45 Degrees as viewed by the operator a perpendicular (90 Degrees) to the work surface as viewed from the end of the workpiece
Increased speeds and better control of the puddle are possible with backhand technique when metal 1/8 in. (3.2 mm) and thicker is welded, based on the study of speeds normally achieved with this technique and on greater ease of obtaining fusion at the weld root.
Backhand welding may be used with a slightly reducing flame (slight acetylene feather) when desirable to melt a minimum amount of steel in making a joint.
The increased carbon content obtained from this flame lowers the melting point of a thin layer of steel and increases welding speed.
This technique increases the speed of making pipe joints where the wall thickness is 1/4 to 5/16 in. (6.4 to 7.9 mm) and groove angle is less than normal.
Backhand welding is sometimes used in surfacing operations.
Fillet Welding Example – Weld executed using the Fillet weld method. The hole at the mid-point is due to the welder changing positions where the rod is moved too close. The result is a slag hole. When welding keep a tight arc and proper rod angle to avoid these types of problems. Some weaving motion can help to provide more control
Fillet is the most popular of all types of welding methods because there is normally no preparation required.
In some cases, the fillet weld is the least expensive, even though it might require more filler metal than a groove weld since the preparation cost would be less.
It can be used for the lap joint, the tee joint, and the corner joint without preparation.
Since these are extremely popular, the fillet has wide usage.
On corner joints, the double fillet can actually produce a full-penetration weld joint.
The use of the fillet for making all five of the basic joints is shown in the figure below.
Fillet welds are also used in conjunction with groove welds, particularly for corner and tee joints.
Figure 11-6: A fillet weld is used when two pieces of metal are joined together without preparing the metal first. Shown above, applications of single and double fillet welds
The fillet weld is expected to have equal length legs and thus the face of the fillet is on a 45 degree angle. This is not always so, since a fillet may be designed to have a longer base than height, in which case it is specified by the two leg lengths.
On the 45 degree or normal type of fillet, the strength of the fillet is based on the shortest or throat dimension which is 0.707 x the leg length. For fillets having unequal legs, the throat length must be calculated and is the shortest distance between the root of the fillet and the theoretical face of the fillet. In calculating the strength of fillet welds, the reinforcement is ignored. The root penetration is also ignored unless a deep penetrating process is used. If semi-or fully-automatic application is used, the extra penetration can be considered.
Under these circumstances, the size of the fillet can be reduced, yet equal strength will result. Such reductions can be utilized only when strict welding procedures are enforced. The strength of the fillet weld is determined by its failure area, which relates to the throat dimension. Doubling the size or leg length of a fillet will double its strength since it doubles the throat dimension and area. However, doubling the fillet size will increase its cross-sectional area and weight four times. For example, a 3/8 in. (9.5 mm) fillet is twice as strong as a 3/16 in. (4.8 mm) fillet; however, the 3/8 in. (9.5 mm) fillet requires four times as much weld metal.
In design work, the fillet size is sometimes governed by the thickness of the metals joined. In some situations, the minimum size of the fillet must be based on practical reasons rather than the theoretical need of the design. Intermittent fillets are sometimes used when the size is minimum, based on code, or for practical reasons, rather than because of strength requirements. Many intermittent welds are based on a pitch and length so that the weld metal is reduced in half. Large intermittent fillets are not recommended because of the volume-throat dimension relationship mentioned previously. For example, a 3/8 in. (9.5 mm) fillet 6 in. (152.4 mm) long on a 12 in. (304.8 mm) pitch (center to center of intermittent welds) could be reduced to a continuous 3/16 in. (4.8 mm) fillet, and the strength would be the same, but the amount of weld metal would be only half as much.
Single fillet welds are extremely vulnerable to cracking if the root of the weld is subjected to tension loading. This applies to tee joints, corner joints, and lap joints. The simple remedy for such joints is to make double fillets, which prohibit the tensile load from being applied to the root of the fillet. This is shown by figure 11-6. Notice the F (force) arrowhead.
A different welding technique is required for fillet welding than for butt joints because of the position of the parts to be welded. When welding is done in the horizontal position, there is a tendency for the top plate to melt before the bottom plate because of heat rising. This can be avoided, however, by pointing the flame more at the bottom plate than at the edge of the upper plate. Both plates must reach the welding temperature at the same time.
In making the weld, a modified form of backhand technique should be used. The welding rod should be kept in the puddle between the completed portion of the weld and the flame. The flame should be pointed ahead slightly in the direction in which the weld is being made and directed at the lower plate. To start welding, the flame should be concentrated on the lower plate until the metal is quite red. Then the flame should be directed so as to bring both plates to the welding temperature at the same time. It is important that the flame not be pointed directly at the inner corner of the fillet. This will cause an excessive amount of heat to build up and make the puddle difficult to control.
It is essential in this form of welding that fusion is obtained at the inside corner or root of the joint.


Liv Grewal, the Conservative candidate for the new Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon riding, has withdrawn from the race.
Jul. 28, 2015 5:00 a.m.
Less than three months before the federal election, the new riding of Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon—which extends as far north as Cache Creek—has seen the withdrawal of Conservative candidate Liv Grewal.
Grewal was one of six Conservative nominees in the riding, and won the nomination in May. The 29-year-old Grewal is the son of Fleetwood–Port Kells MP Nina Grewal and former MP Gurmant Grewal, who was banned last fall from running for the Conservative party for reasons that have not been disclosed.
In May, Abbotsford News columnist Mark Rushton wrote about the reaction from some Conservative party members following Grewal's selection. "I've received many e-mails and calls over the past couple of days alleging all sorts of things: interloper-candidate, mass membership purchases, voting by non-residents—none substantiated," he said.


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Assistant Professor of Politics / International Relations at Georgetown University in Qatar
We are especially interested in candidates with research and teaching interests in the politics, international relations, or political economy of Africa. A geographical focus on East Africa / Horn of Africa would tie into a strong existing GU-Q research interest in the Indian Ocean region. The successful candidate will be able to teach required undergraduate courses in International Relations and/or Comparative Political Systems, as well as upper-level electives at the advanced undergraduate and graduate levels. Ability to contribute to the courses on Scope & Methods in Political Science and/or Quantitative Methods for International Politics, will be an advantage.
Applications should be submitted by Saturday, 13 February 2021 to ensure full consideration. Review of applications will begin immediately and continue until the position is filled. Interviews will be conducted virtually.
For more details and to apply, see this document
Assistant/Associate Tenure Track, Philosophy of Law at McMaster University
The Department of Philosophy at McMaster University seeks to hire a philosopher of law at the rank of Assistant or Associate Professor, Tenure Track. The department will also consider social or political philosophers whose research forefronts law and legal institutions. We understand philosophy of law broadly to include not only general jurisprudence but also philosophical work focused on particular areas of law, including, but not limited to: constitutional law, criminal law, contract law, discrimination law, human rights law, international law, labor law, property law, and tort law. We are especially interested in scholars with expertise in feminist jurisprudence, Indigenous law, or the law as it relates to race. The normal teaching load in the Philosophy Department is 2 courses per term (4 per academic year), plus graduate supervision.
The successful applicant must demonstrate a record of excellence in teaching and research and a willingness and ability to: (1) contribute actively to the Department's undergraduate program in Justice, Political Philosophy and Law; (2) supervise MA and PhD graduate students; (3) help build and sustain McMaster's existing institutional connections through the Ontario Legal Philosophy Partnership, as well as its already strong working relationships with nearby law schools, and; (4) support the collegial atmosphere and intellectual life of the department. The successful applicant must have or be very near completion of a doctorate in philosophy or subject matter directly related to the position (e.g., law with a specialization in philosophy or political science with a specialization in political theory) by the time of the appointment.
For further details and how to apply, see this document.


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Reality 1, Feminism 0
Posted on | February 11, 2014 | 14 Comments
Ideologues fetishize intellectual abstractions to the point that real life confuses them. Lori Gottlieb is therefore stunned:
The more traditional the division of labor, meaning the greater the husband's share of masculine chores compared with feminine ones, the greater his wife's reported sexual satisfaction.
So says an academic study, at least, and therefore the science is settled. The problem — maybe Gottlieb doesn't understand this — is that feminism is an ideology developed by lesbian Marxists who hate men. Feminist ideology is therefore not about improving relationships between men and women; it's about teaching women to hate men, so that all women can become Marxist lesbians.
One way to undermine the heteronormative patriarchy is to prevent men from becoming the kind of men that women love, i.e., successful, confident, masculine-type men. This is why schools have been re-organized to punish boys for acting like boys. As men become increasingly demoralized, disempowered and dysfunctional, they are simply less attractive (and less valuable) as mates.
And feminists say, "Hooray, equality!"
Feminists cheer this trend because feminists are Marxist lesbians, and every bad thing that happens to men is good news to them.
Fish, bicycle, some assembly required.
Category: Feminism
14 Responses to "Reality 1, Feminism 0"
February 11th, 2014 @ 8:06 am
Spot-on observation. I would note, the main problem with the Progressive/Left view of any relationship is that it is zero-sum. That is, if I'm happy, you're miserable. It is the whole Oppressor/Victim narrative chiseled into every human interaction. All relationships become ledgers where the accounts must be squared. If I do something for my wife, she must do something for me or I am being oppressed. Virtues such as love and friendship for their own sake are destroyed. It's no wonder people are unhappy in relationships and it's no wonder "Science!" is suddenly discovering such a view of human interaction leads to misery.
Oppressed child star Shirley Temple Black managed to be happy, Republican, and avoided dying of an OD. How is that possible?
Quartermaster
Men and women are wired the way they are wired and political idiocy won't change that.
Trespassers W
Blah, blah, blah. Where's my sammich?
pabarge
February 11th, 2014 @ 12:26 pm
Lori Gottleib
http://www.aspenideas.org/sites/default/files/images/Blog/OMR-Gottlieb-blog.jpg
Man Jaw.
Stogie Chomper
…feminism is an ideology developed by lesbian Marxists who hate men. Feminist ideology is therefore not about improving relationships between men and women; it's about teaching women to hate men, so that all women can become Marxist lesbians.
This is the crux of the matter. I noted this very same truth back in the late 70's when a female feminist colleague invited me to see a one woman play in San Francisco, about feminist Virginia Woolf. The small audience was filled with lesbians (me being an exception) who were all members of NOW. My earlier impression was that NOW and its feminist followers were a legitimate movement to support women's rights. I was quickly disabused of that notion, and later told my friend that the NOW members seemed to all hate men, or even wanted to be men themselves. They had no more credibility with me. I was faced with the awful truth, that they were a bunch of kooks.
February 11th, 2014 @ 2:07 pm
Must disagree.
Betty Friedan had a history as a denizen of the red haze, but she was not a lesbian and publicly lamented the tendency of lesbians to take-over women's organizations (she was, by many accounts, a terror to her husband); Bella Abzug was stuck with a pair of lesbian daughters, but she herself had a long (and by many accounts) affectionate marriage. Gloria Steinem appears to have had no wifely or maternal dimension to her at all, but she had a long list of men who were made use of for a time and then discarded (including Mort Zuckerman). Eleanor Smeal got involved with the National Organization for Women (by her account) not because she was discontented with her situation, but because the use of crude proto-psychotropics had become standard practice by women in her social circle.
By contrast, one of the most incisive critics of post-1962 feminism has been Camille Paglia, who is somewhere in the grey area between AC-DC and lesbian.
Lesbians favor bad haircuts and plaid flannel and human relations built around mortal sin. The politically active ones are trouble, but I do not think you can lay the problems attending contemporary feminism at their doorstep.
K-Bob
"feminism is an ideology developed by lesbian Marxists who hate men"
I believe that should be:
"feminism is a concept that was taken over by lesbian Marxists who hate men, and turned it into an ideology far different from what it's early proponents were trying to accomplish."
But that is over wordy, I'll grant.
Yep. Complainers looking for their just reward, no matter how much praise they receive nor how much free stuff they accumulate, will never achieve the satisfaction that comes from simple devotion to one's family.
Not only do I doubt seriously she could make a decent sandwich, I am more comfortable that she has no idea where the knives are kept.
Most cultural traditions were NOT adopted arbitrarily, but rather because they were the methods proven to work best in practice over long periods of time.
Chesterton's sage advice applies to everyone: "Before you tear down a fence, understand why it was put up in the first place."
Chesterton was a true descendant of Burke.
cmdr358
"Lesbians favor bad haircuts and plaid flannel and human relations built around mortal sin."
Why is it that in many lesbian couples one of them dresses like a man, has his hair cut like a man and acts like lumberjack or a longshoreman?
It seems to me that one of these partners isn't really a lesbian because she doesn't really like women but just likes her men to have vaginas. The other one is really a man stuck in a woman's body and yet hates all men.
It's no wonder they're so angry all the time.
Zohydro
"…hates all men."
Is it "hate" or envy?


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TDS Community Special: The Crystal Ball with Sesh Gremlin Championship
Here at The Draft Society we've always said that what makes the draft game different is the community that is has fostered. It's all love, baby. The support we get from each and every one of you every day of every week is beyond anything we could ever have imagined when we founded back in March of 2021. And whilst we'll never be able to thank you all enough for this, we hope that we can give a little something back in the best way we know how: the Community Special.
Each week @the_innergeek will write up a personalised article for the league of one lucky winner. It's your call on the topic. Whether it's a Trade-Maker Special, a Gameweek Preview, or The Crystal Ball Breakdown, the Inner Geek has you covered. A word of warning, though: no punches will be pulled when the Inner Geek gets to work! This week's winner is Sesh Gremlin Championship – a gif of the master of comedy, Mr Rowan Atkinson, was always going to go down well at The Draft Society HQ! Anyway, the Crystal Ball analysis was chosen, so Sesh Gremlin, are you and your rivals ready to see into the future?
The Crystal Ball
We may be just 9 gameweeks down, and for you mere mortals, the end is nowhere near in sight. But for me, blessed as I am with my crystal ball, the end has been in sight since draft day. In fact, it is not so much "in sight" as it is "annoyingly obscuring my view of the rest of the world". Time to remedy that. It goes without saying, but the following article WILL contain spoilers.
Before we begin, we need to take a look at the rosters. After all, how can you agree with my predictions if you don't know what they're based on?
The Rosters and Some Context
For those of you who continually miss the Sky Sports or ESPN coverage of this league, then here's a quick recap of the rosters, current league standings, and rules. Normally I present the rosters so that they are colour coded for position, however, given the difficulty in doing this for a league that uses numerous dual-position players, I thought I would try something a little different. Here are the rosters based on fantasy value. Dark green = elite assets, medium green = top, top assets, light green = solid assets, grey = serviceable assets, yellow = "on their day" assets, and orange = SWAYD's (as in, Seriously What Are You Doing having these on your roster?).
This league works to a 35-game season, with playoffs following. Notably it incorporates a quite expanded points system that has default Fantrax scoring as a basis, but adds numerous other categories on top (e.g., 'Errors led to shot/goal', 'Fouls suffered/committed', 'Big chances created/missed', 'Ball recoveries', and 'Accurate passes', amongst others). It also uses dual positions for numerous players (e.g. Jack Grealish, Trincao, Nicolas Pepe, Jadon Sancho, etc. are both midfielders and forwards), which allows for more flexibility in roster makeup.
The Current Situation...
How It All Ends…
Enough with all the formalities - let's start seeing into the crystal ball! Here we go then, in reverse order (though if you can't stand to wait any longer, the final league standings are at the foot of the article!).
12th – Cheeky Sanchos
If league position were based on quality of team name then Cheeky Sanchos would be right up there. Unfortunately, it's mainly based on team quality (with a bit of luck thrown in there too) – and this is why the club will find themselves taking home the wooden spoon this season. Bruno Fernandes, of course, is premium. And I love the super-exciting Leon Bailey (though the recurring injuries are a concern). And Emile Smith Rowe is a beautiful player who could be a star in a better side. But other than that, there's a lot "chasing players". By that I mean, players who you're having to predict when their one 20-point performance from ten games is going to come (see: Jorginho, Maupay, King, Zaha…). These guys are arguably worse than the free agent material because you persevere with them through their countless poor returns just to chase that occasional high. Save yourself the hassle and trade them out.
11th – Supreme Team
This is going to hurt for the team currently sat 3rd in the table and with the 2nd highest total points. Despite the great start to the season, this is a roster whose firepower is confined to two Leicester assets: Youri Tielemans and Jamie Vardy, the latter of whom is 34 years old and currently struggling with a slight injury according to his manager. Supreme will be cursing the turmoil at Manchester United – it's meant that very little fantasy goodness is coming out of the Wan-Bissaka-Maguire duo they have going on. Having faith in the Chelsea defence will also cost them as Tuchel's side is far less solid at the back than the six clean sheets suggest. They did, however, find a nice gem in Maxwel Cornet, and the Ivorian is going to have a few more electric days like in gameweek 9 before the season is done. 11th spot, but in fairness, just two wins from a playoff place.
10th – BiNelsa
BiNelsa have two of my favourite players in Phil Foden and Raphinha – absolute stars on the field as well as in Fantrax. Unfortunately for BiNelsa, there's very little else to help the side achieve anything higher than a 10th place finish. That's perhaps a little harsh on the likes of Ings, Trossard, Pinnock, and Gallagher, but there's reasons for concern with each. Ings' reliance on goals and assists doesn't bode well in a Villa team not living up to their pre-season excitement, whilst Trossard is also underperforming despite finally having a settled spot in the Brighton starting 11. Pinnock looks like a legitimate fantasy monster, but the recent injury is obviously not ideal, and Gallagher, whilst receiving a lot of Twitter praise, actually hasn't done much outside of the gameweek 3 and 4 hauls. Still, at least it's not last place.
9th – The Unbearables
Coming in at 9 is The Unbearables who – like those around them – have minimal depth to their roster. Sadio Mane and Ivan Toney are premium assets. Jarrod Bowen, Ilkay Gundogan, and Ben Chilwell will also contribute handily. And Matthew Cash, Chris Wood, and pre-injury Abdoulaye Doucoure will have their moments. But the rest? That's free agent material unfortunately. An astute trade or two might have found this club sneaking into the playoffs but the Crystal Ball hasn't seen that happening. The downside to such a roster is, of course, the 9th place finish, but on the plus side, it's super fun trying to find 8 new players from the waiver wire each gameweek. Just in future, don't go down the McCarthy-Kilman-Tierney route…
8th – Haribo Scharmix
Mohamed Salah may be on course to absolutely destroy the single-season scoring record in Fantrax, but even that won't be enough to take Haribo Scharmix into the playoffs. If you thought the teams below Haribo had a lack of roster depth, it is nothing on this club. You can count the serviceable fantasy assets on one hand: Salah, Allan Saint-Maximin, Joao Cancelo, and Callum Wilson. Thankfully, the first three of these are absolute ballers, which explains the 8th place finish rather than the 12th place finish. Like the club directly above them in the league, this roster looked far better at the start of the season but has suffered from numerous cases of underperformance-itis. Timothy Castagne, Ben Mee, Wilfred Ndidi, Joe Willock…all of these should have been doing something for their fantasy managers. Unfortunately for Haribo, they have not.
7th – Tower Power
Agonisingly missing out on the playoffs is Tower Power, whose lack of forward options will end up costing them dearly. The issues in midfield also didn't help. Many a manager has been burned by placing their faith in Jack Harrison or Harvey Barnes this season, so to have both rostered really hurts. Tomas Soucek and James Tarkowski have disappointed somewhat too. This roster would have looked solid at the start of the season, but a lot of seemingly good calls have not come to fruition. Michael Olise hasn't been the sleeper many thought he would be (and now faces competition from a returning-earlier-than-expected Eze), Ibrahima Konate can't nail down a starting spot at Liverpool quite yet, and even Reece James hasn't had the minutes most thought he'd get. When the Chelsea right-back and Ismaila Sarr are your two best players, you're always going to be up against it – a 7th place finish under the circumstances is actually pretty good.
6th – Baby Got Dack
Squeaking into the playoffs by the skin of their teeth is Baby Got Dack, and they have the solid consistency of James Ward-Prowse and the return to form of Harry Kane to thank for that. Kane may have started the season super slow, but he hasn't become a bad player overnight. The Crystal Ball has seen him shoot back up the rankings and by April time his numbers will be up alongside the likes of Antonio, Vardy, and teammate Son. This roster has a fair few workable assets – the type that can keep your side relevant if you start and sit them at the right times (which Dack will do enough of the time). The likes of Matt Ritchie, Rodrigo, Adam Armstrong, Ricardo Pereira, Aymeric Laporte, and Alexandre Lacazette all have big scores in them – it's just unfortunate for Dack that it's often quite infrequent.
5th – On Yer Ledson
Now we're getting into the good teams. There is a huge jump in quality between 6th spot and 5th, and On Yer Ledson could easily have found themselves a couple of places higher with a bit more luck going their way. Forming the core of this side are five very solid players in Andrew Robertson, Pascal Gross, Dwight McNeil, Mason Mount, and Dominic Calvert-Lewin – if Gross and Mount can avoid rotation then when DCL gets fit, this will be a daunting opponent for the rest of the league. Defence is the biggest worry for this side. Yes, Shane Duffy has been on fire so far, but the Crystal Ball can tell you now that he has already peaked. Likewise Kovacic, though the midfield will cope when he fades. The forward line – outside of DCL – is a bunch of players living off former glories, with their managers hoping they can rekindle those fires. They may do from time to time, but it won't be enough to push On Yer Ledson any higher than 5th.
4th – Chanada FC
Fantrax scoring has turned defensive midfielders into valuable assets and made aerially dominant centre-backs sought after commodities. Still, there's no denying that the attacking players tend to gather more of the points, and Chanada has acknowledged this in impressive fashion. In defence, three of the four options are marauding right backs, whilst in midfield, only two of the four have probably ever heard the word "tackle" – and based on last Sunday, one of them is still unable to execute them properly. And then we get to the forwards. Seven options in total (thank God for the dual positions used in this league), allowing Chanada to pick their position each week when fielding three of them. It's a strong roster, but one without a superstar. And that's why it finishes 4th and not any higher.
3rd – Long Legs FC
Taking home the imaginary bronze medal is Long Legs FC, which may come as a surprise given that they clearly think it was necessary to hold on to Ederson when he missed Manchester City's last game. Few, if any, goalkeepers have the sort of value that justifies wasting a bench spot for them and perhaps it's decisions like these that have prevented Long Legs fighting for the title. As of this writing they sit 2nd, just one win behind the leaders, so a 3rd place finish may be disappointing for the manager. Realistically, though, they were a long way from the two above them. It's a very good roster for sure; Cristiano Ronaldo will end as a top 10 fantasy player, Ollie Watkins as a top 10 forward, and Andros Townsend isn't going to go away any time soon. But it just needs a little more, particularly in defence. Of the five there at the moment, only Cesar Azpilicueta has hit or exceeded preseason expectations. A very good team, but very good teams don't win championships.
2nd – Sporting Scouse
There are five elite players in the game. Owning two of them is just insane. It must have taken some incredible trading by Sporting Scouse for them to end up with Trent Alexander-Arnold and Kevin De Bruyne on their roster. It isn't enough to win them a league title, but it does get them a runners-up medal, and a bye into the semi-finals of the playoffs. The roster built by Scouse is one without any glaring holes – there are are solid fantasy assets everywhere you look. TAA is joined by Virgil van Dijk, which means whenever Liverpool gets a clean sheet (and they are doing so in 66% of their matches so far this season) it gives opponents a mountain to climb. Gabriel Jesus and Riyad Mahrez is a great half-handcuff, and Marcus Rashford and Adama Traore are two more exciting options to have. If Ferran Torres hadn't got injured, then maybe…actually, no. Love this squad, but the next one up is just something else.
1st – Johnny Lawrence
Ladies and gentlemen, your 2021-22 Sesh Gremlin Champion is…Johnny Lawrence!! The Crystal Ball has spoken, and whilst it may not be the title race the league wanted, it's certainly the title winner that the league deserved. This roster is as close to flawless as you will get in fantasy management. There may not be the elite superstar, but there's big names left, right, and centre. Emiliano Buendia, Jack Grealish, Jadon Sancho, Heung-Min Son, Diogo Jota, Romelu Lukaku, Bukayo Saka, Nicolas Pepe, Trincao…the list is frightening (at least for the rest of the league). Even the defence holds its own and, in fact, is probably the second best defence in the league after Sporting Scouse's. The club sit top of the pile at the moment, just one win ahead of their rivals, but that's as close as it's going to get. The title will be sewn up by March, which means preparations for the playoffs can begin whilst the rest of the league is still fighting amongst themselves…
Playoff Bonus
The first round of the playoffs sees the 6th seed Baby Got Dack take on the 3rd seed Long Legs FC, and then 5th seed On Yer Ledson face 4th seed Chanada FC. Unfortunately for the neutrals there are no surprises, with the top teams progressing in each. On Yer Ledson did give Chanada a run for their money, but with West Ham facing Norwich, Chanada's Antonio and Benrahma were able to run wild.
Into the semi-finals and the league champions Johnny Lawrence cruised into the final on the back of big performances from Son (against Burnley), Buendia (against Crystal Palace), and Trincao (against Norwich). The second semi-final was much more closely fought, and it was Long Legs who eventually came out victorious, thanks to an Ollie Watkins brace.
I really REALLY want to say that Long Legs did it, but I've been given the gift of the Crystal Ball and I must use it wisely. Johnny Lawrence do the double. It was always going to be an uphill struggle with Villa away at the Etihad (and thus, zero points for Watkins), but when news breaks during the week that Cristiano Ronaldo has been in secret talks with Pep to try and arrange a move to Manchester City in the summer, United manager Antonio Conte drops the superstar, and in turn, ends Long Legs' hopes. Johnny Lawrence win in style with Heung-Min Son putting 50 points up after scoring four goals against Norwich.
So there we have it. The Crystal Ball has revealed its secrets. Sesh Gremlin, you and your league may as well do the old Championship Manager trick now and 'Go on Holiday' – the results have already been decided, the positions finalised, and the silverware handed out (and wooden spoon too…Cheeky Sanchos…). It also means that you can now bring forward the end of season night out. You're welcome.
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