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\section*{Introduction}

Analyzing disease progression can provide great insights into the underlying pathophysiology of disease processes.
Examining how a disease progresses over time can help us to understand when a patient will progress into a stage requiring treatment and provide tailored care for the patient.
Numerous natural-history studies have been conducted for specific diseases, such as for type 1 diabetes (T1D), Huntington's disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the past.
These studies provide great opportunities for clinical researchers to investigate disease progression patterns using longitudinal data.

However, despite the availability of well-curated data from these past observational studies and the best of many research motives, many challenges remain to conduct such investigations. For example, to understand how subjects progress from no disease into disease states, one has to take into account multiple socio-demographic as well as clinical measures and their evolution over time that may be associated with the onset of the disease.
Second, there are challenges inherent to collection of longitudinal data, i.e. even if the data are collected for all co-variate(s) of interest, observations may be recorded at discrete times and varying intervals in many similar studies.
This introduces sampling bias.
Third, the observational records may also contain missing data, i.e. not each co-variate may be recorded at each time point in the data collection process.
Fourth, depending on the chronic condition,  disease progression rates and patterns may vary indicating  heterogeneity of progression across populations which may be attributed to underlying  environmental and/or genetic risks.
For these reasons, it is not only difficult to find distinct progression patterns from large observational studies of the past but to also summarize these patterns in an appropriate way for downstream consumption~\cite{Sun2019_JAMIA}. For example, researchers and clinicians may want to infer distinct trajectories from progression patterns for further investigations, and needless to say this largely remains an active area of biomedical research~\cite{steck_predictors_2015, endesfelder_novel_2016, cook_disease_2016, liu_efficient_2015, chen_penalized_2017, wang_unsupervised_2014}. In this paper, we address the question of learning disease progression patterns from noisy observational data using data-driven probabilistic methods and interactive visualization approaches. As a proof of concept, we apply these methods to the multi-site data from the ``T1DI'' (Type 1 Diabetes Intelligence) study group. Our team is involved in this effort with an aim to study computational modeling of T1D.

T1D is a chronic auto-immune condition that affects both children and adults and has lasting consequences of insulin dependence throughout an individual's life. By recent estimates, the disease incidence is doubling every five years, particularly in children below the age of 5 years, and yet there is no cure for it~\cite{gomez2019correlating}. It is now known, that a presymptomatic phase which involves development of islet autoantibodies (biomarkers) followed by a period of dysglycemia, precedes the onset of clinical symptoms when an individual is generally diagnosed.
A recent scientific statement by the leading research organizations have proposed three clinical stages of the disease~\cite{insel_staging_2015}.
In the first stage, individuals show presence of multiple islet autoantibodies but with normal glycemic control; in the second stage, in the presence of islet autoimmunity, they start exhibiting dysglycemia; and in the third stage the overt clinical symptoms set in when a clinical diagnosis is generally made. While these clinical stages provide a big picture of disease progression, they do not address its heterogeneity , i.e. when an individual is likely to progress, and what may be the next stage and under what circumstances. However, heterogeneity has been well described in past and ongoing research studies~\cite{hagopian_environmental_2011} as well as in clinical practice.

To address these questions, we model disease progression using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), a class of state-space models, that can discover underlying latent (disease) states from observational data in a probabilistic way~\cite{Sukkar2012, wang_unsupervised_2014, Sun2019_JAMIA, LiuLiEtAl2015_NIPS,JacksonEtAl2003_JRSS}. We apply this method iteratively to learn an optimal number of disease states based on available (biomarker) data. We supplement our modeling efforts with an interactive visualization method~\cite{kwon2020dpvis} to facilitate discovery of overall patterns (aka disease trajectories) and their salient characteristics.

Because of growing body of evidence supporting role of biomarkers in progression to onset ~\cite{endesfelder_time-resolved_2019} , the T1D research community is keenly interested in investigating these. These may include the type or number of islet autoantibodies detected in blood serum or their combinations. It is believed that a more detailed map of these patterns may help in further refining disease staging which in turn may support newer prevention trials and personalized therapies.

\section*{Methods}

We first breifly describe the study data followed by modeling and visualization methods. This study was conducted by approval from the IRB of individual study cohorts as well as by the T1DI Study group.

\subsection*{Data: Longitudinal Observational Studies from Five Different Sites}

We use longitudinal data collected from the T1DI Study Group, which combines observational data from five natural history studies, some of which are still ongoing. These studies are  BABYDIAB~\cite{ziegler1999autoantibody}, DAISY~\cite{rewers_newborn_1996}, DEW-IT~\cite{wion_population-wide_2003}, DiPiS~\cite{jonsdottir_childhood_2018}, and DIPP~\cite{nejentsev_population-based_1999}.
In these studies, each site recruited children at genetic or familial risk at birth or close to birth and followed them in periodic visits until their diagnosis or for a period of 15 years whichever came first. This
combined and harmonized cohort of five studies has over 24,000 subjects, with an average of 12 (sd: 9) visits per subject, and an average interval of 0.8 (sd: 0.94) years between visits. Of these, 2524 (10\%) subjects developed one or more autoantibodies in the follow up period and 697 (3\%) were diagnosed with T1D (at the time of these analyses).

Of those diagnosed, we analyze 688 T1D cases partitioned into two sets. We use visits of 559 T1D cases from 3 studies (DAISY, DIPP, DiPiS) having at least 3 visits in the follow up period as our modeling set (i.e. for learning a disease progression model). We use 129 T1D cases from 2 studies (BABYDIAB and DEWIT) as an independent evaluation set and label their visits at each time point with the model latent states. These are described in detail below.

\subsection*{Modeling: Training Hidden Markov Models}

An HMM can represent progression (of a subject) through disease stages as transitions between `hidden (or latent) states.'
The hidden states when learned from data characterize a set of probability distributions of multiple observed measures. In these models, state transitions (among latent states) are represented using a transition matrix. The transition matrix defines the probability of transitioning between hidden states and if needed can be constrained based on domain knowledge or pragmatic assumptions.
For example, one can make an assumption that the disease progresses in one direction, i.e. forward only and a subject does not revert back to prior states as time goes by.
There are several advantages to using a probabilistic disease progression modeling framework.
First, it provides a flexible framework to accommodate different possible progression pathways.
Second, the trained HMM can infer the best state representations from data, which may include missing data.
Third, it allows multi-dimensional representations of disease states, i.e. evolution of multiple covariates.
Fourth, it infers the best possible progression trajectory of an individual subject and collectively can look at trajectories of an individual or a population.
Finally, this method does not require labeled data or ground truth since the primary goal of modeling is to probabilistically discover underlying patterns by way of latent states , their characteristics and transitions.

In many applications, HMMs are trained using periodic time-stamped data in an unsupervised manner. These applications generally use the discrete-time HMM (DT-HMM) which do not allow for irregular time intervals of measurements in the observed data. However, this irregular sampling is often the case in clinical datasets such as the one at hand. Another variation of HMMs, a continuous-time HMM (CT-HMM) can accommodate varying time intervals though with added computational complexity.

In our prior work on Huntington's Disease (HD)~\cite{Sun2019_JAMIA}, we have successfully used CT-HMMs to learn the underlying disease states of HD, a pure genetic condition, purely based on observed clinical assessments. In this paper, we leverage the previous work and apply it to the domain of T1D to understand progression from presymptomatic phases to the onset of disease.  However, we seek some specific changes for our use case. First, we extended the observed variable space from continuous measures (of clinical assessments) to include categorical measures of biomarkers. This was important in this application because the presence or absence of a biomarker (islet autoantibody) detected in blood-serum are indicative of progression and in fact has been proposed as stage 1 of the condition in a recent joint scientific statement~\cite{insel_staging_2015}. Additionally, it is now believed that the type of autoantibody detected in blood serum first may also define the progression pattern to onset of the disease~\cite{krischer20156}. Therefore, it made sense to use categorical measures of these biomarkers (i.e. positive or negative) in our models. This allowed us to leverage the standardized cutoffs of autoantibody titers without having to first harmonize these lab values across these past studies of many years.
Secondly, we apply a principled approach to model selection, i.e. for determining the number of latent states that may optimally define progression. It takes into account both the information criterion and log-likelihood (LL) scores.
In generative models, like HMM, LL is often used to measure the goodness of fit for model selection, i.e. the probability of the observed data given the model.
However, LL does not penalize for model complexity, i.e. the number of parameters to learn or the number of observations required.
In this work, besides using LL to guide the model selection, we also evaluate the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) score. BIC penalizes for the number of model parameters and the number of observations~\cite{claeskens2008model}.

In summary, for training HMMs in the context of disease progression, clinical researchers have an ardent task: i) to choose a set of observed variables, ii) to determine the number of latent states (\textit{K}) for the model, iii) to set constraints on transition probabilities (between latent states) in a pragmatic way, iv) to select a model based on criteria scores and v) to qualitatively evaluate the model so that it may meaningfully define progression for clinical consumption.
We attempt to address these challenges in this work by taking a unique approach of combining modeling and visualization in an iterative way which we describe next.

\textbf{Model Setup: Observations, Number of States, Transition Constraints, and Model Outputs}

First, we needed to choose a set of observed variables to discover the hidden states from. In our use case, we use previously recognized islet autoantibody biomarkers: glutamic acid decarboxylase autoantibodies (GADA), insulinoma-2-associated autoantibodies (IA-2A), insulin autoantibodies (IAA) that are known for their association to T1D disease status.

Second, we needed to choose the number of hidden states (\emph{K}) for the HMM model. This model selection process is done by building models with different \emph{K}, quantifying the model characteristics, comparing the models, and selecting an appropriate \emph{K}. Bootstrap resampling was used to assess the model fit as measured by LL. To supplement the model selection process, a variety of other methods were applied including BIC, visualization and model constraints. For example, for each model, the latent states are characterized by probabilities (distribution) of observed variables and these were explored in the context of model explainability using visualization methods~\cite{kwon2020dpvis}.
In general, as the number of latent states increase, more transition pathways are possible between them.
While these pathways may expose heterogeneity in disease progression, they can also increase model complexity and limit model interpretability. Typically, models with high \emph{K} can have lower error rates (e.g., higher log-likelihood scores, lower BIC scores) but are more complex and harder to interpret.

\begin{figure}[bth]
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/hmmconstraints.pdf}
\caption{The types of constraints that can be set on transition probabilities of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). Each constraint is represented as a $K$$\times$$K$ matrix, where $K$ is the number of states. The four examples illustrate constraints as green (possible route between states) and red (restricted route between states). }
\label{fig:hmmconstraints}
\end{figure}

Another way to increase model interpretability is by imposing state transition constraints.
However, this can depend on the nature of the disease.
Figure~\ref{fig:hmmconstraints} illustrates various kinds of constraints that can be set on the transition probabilities.
No constraints can be used to allow transitions between all states.
On the other hand, forward only constraints can be set so that transitions in the reverse order are not allowed.
This is especially helpful to capture chronic diseases that exhibit worsening symptoms as time goes by.
In addition to directionality, constraints can also be set on the transition steps.
For instance, to represent the step-by-step progression nature, we can set the model to be a forward-chain model, which means a patient can only either stay at state $i$ or jump to state $i+1$.

Once we have a trained model, several model outputs can be assessed to interrogate the model and draw useful insights. First, as a result of the training process, a (latent) state is assigned to every visit encounter in the modeling set. Essentially this assignment results in ``labeling'' of longitudinal visits as temporal sequences of HMM states.
In addition to state sequences, we also derive posterior probabilities (of state assignment) from the model (just considering forward pass) for every visit. The Viterbi method (that relies on forward-backward pass) employed in our models, picks the state sequence with the highest probability~\cite{forney1973viterbi}. In case of discrepancies between the two methods, the output shows uncertainties of the assignment process. Potentially these can be visualized to derive useful insights into both the modeling and the resulting progression.
Other useful insights can be drawn from the finite number of states (of the model). These can potentially be used to group subjects with similar state sequences. We can then compare the heterogeneity with respect to progression rates using interactive visualizations. Other useful outputs from these models are a state transition matrix that defines the rate of transition from state $i$ to state $j$. This rate can be used to compute average dwell times (sojourn times) in each state and the probability of staying in or transitioning out from a state given a time value of interest (e.g. in 2 years).

\subsection*{Model Evaluation: Assessing Hidden Markov Models}

To find the optimal model, we needed to run experiments with different combinations of parameters for HMMs (number of states, transition constraints) and impose visualization. For the first, we randomly split data into training and validation sets using the 7$:$3 ratio. We created V such experimental sets. Using each experimental setup, in our experiments, we varied the number of latent states from $K=2$ to $K=20$ states, i.e. we learned a model for each latent state by random initializations. We did not consider any numbers beyond 20 (for latent states) because of complexity in terms of the possible number of transitions and interpretability.
We chose the forward chain model, where subjects can either stay at the current state ($i$) or proceed to the next state ($i+1$) while prohibiting them from jumping forward or backward into other states. However each subject could start or end their progression in any state.
Thus, each experimental setup was randomly initialized 10 times and in each initialization a new HMM was trained using the iterative expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm~\cite{wang_unsupervised_2014}. At each iteration, a training (set) LL was computed to assess model convergence. A LL score on the validation set was similarly computed at the end of convergence and is used as a performance metric (of predictive LL) for model evaluation and selection as described below.
We plot both the training LL and the predictive LL as a function of the latent states used in these experiments.
The total number of experiments (\emph{N}) in the above setup amounts to the product of the number of data splits (\emph{V}), the number of candidate latent states (\emph{K}), the number of experiments (\emph{M}), and the types of constraints (\emph{C}). In total, we ran the experiments for training 1900 model instances (V:10, K:2 to 20 states, i.e. total of 19 states, M:10, and C:1) which are plotted in Figure~\ref{fig:hmmevaluation}.

\begin{figure}[t!]
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/hmmevaluation.pdf}
\caption{Model performance (vertical axis) as a function of the number of latent states $K$ (horizontal axis). The left view shows the model performance in terms of predictive likelihood score (LL) on the validation set; the right view shows the model performance in terms of Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) on validation set.}
\label{fig:hmmevaluation}
\end{figure}

\subsection*{Visualization Method: Summarize States and Transition Patterns}

To summarize the trained model, we apply DPVis~\cite{kwon2020dpvis}, an interactive visualization tool developed for users to explore disease progression patterns.
DPVis is a visual analytics system that consists of multiple, coordinated views, where each view provides summary and details of the HMM states and the state transition patterns.
The visualization has three main goals.
First, it helps users examine the summary of states by inspecting the probabilities of output variables per state.
In this process, users can also evaluate the probabilities of other variables (per state), which though were unused in the modeling process.
Second, it allows users to summarize the discovered longitudinal clusters with respect to state transitions, i.e., \emph{trajectories}.
Users can find the volume of individuals and compare heterogeneity in terms of progression rates by viewing these trajectories.
Third, it allows users to further group individuals based on state transition patterns.
Users can form and test hypotheses by interactively forming subgroups and examining their characteristics.
DPVis has many additional functionalities and views designed to help facilitate investigation of disease progression patterns, but a comprehensive and detailed description of them is out of scope here and described elsewhere~\cite{kwon2020dpvis}.
In this paper, we apply DPVis to a specific use case to help generate summaries of HMM states and state transition patterns over time, as shown in Figures~\ref{fig:hmmoutputvariables} and~\ref{fig:statetransitions}.

\section*{Results}
Model performance as a function of the number of latent states is shown in Figure~\ref{fig:hmmevaluation}.
The left plot shows the LL of the training dataset (at the last EM iteration) (blue) and validation set (red) (after model convergence) over different numbers of latent states $K$ (horizontal axis).
For each $K$, a box plot shows the summary of 100 experiments (10 random training/validation splits used with 10 random model initializations).
We have connected the median results with a line to show the trend.
Figure~\ref{fig:hmmevaluation} shows that the LL score in general increases as the number of states increase, which is expected.
However, the magnitude of increase in LL starts decreasing around 9--11 states, which indicates that the models with more number of states than 9--11 states may not add value for the cost (complexity).
To validate our observations, we computed BIC on the validation set, which is shown in the right plot of Figure~\ref{fig:hmmevaluation}.
The BIC score decreases as the number of states increases and is consistent with the trend observed with LL.
We observe that the BIC measure starts flattening out as the number of states increase beyond 11--13 states.
By combining the evaluation results from two independent measurements, LL and BIC, we chose the 11 state model, which has a good trade-off between good model fit and low model complexity.

\begin{figure}[t!]
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/hmmdwelltransition.pdf}
\caption{The trained model provides various outputs. The left plot shows the average dwell time per state. The right plot shows the transition probabilities among states in 2 years.}
\label{fig:hmmdwelltransition}
\end{figure}

Once a model instance has been trained, its outputs (e.g. dwell time, transition matrix) can be interpreted both quantitatively and qualitatively.
Figure~\ref{fig:hmmdwelltransition} shows two different outputs of a trained model: dwell time (left) and transition probabilities (right).
Average dwell time indicates the average time subjects stay at each state.
The bar chart shows some patterns with state sub-sequences.
We observe that average dwell time increases as the state index increases until some point, then decrease to small numbers, and then increases back until some other points.
In total, we observe three different segments: i) 0--2, ii) 3--7, iii) 8--10.
Within each segment, we observe that average dwell time increases as the state index increases.
We also note that state 10 is the ``sink'' state by the construction of the model (i.e., it is the last state).
The transition probabilities show patterns for how subjects transition from one state to another in a given time frame.
Figure~\ref{fig:hmmdwelltransition} (right) shows the state transition probabilities (after 24 months) as a matrix.
As expected, after 24 months, most subjects stay at their current state and rarely move to next states as shown by the large numbers in the diagonal cells.

\begin{figure}[b!]
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/hmmoutputvariables.pdf}
\caption{The Summary of HMM Output Variables. Each state (column) shows probabilities of onsets of three output variables (rows): GADA, IA-2A, and IAA, which were used for modeling. In addition, it shows probabilities of other variables that are unused for the modeling. Acquire$\_$GAA shows the probability of acquiring GADA in the corresponding state, HighestRiskSoFar is the mean value of the derived measure which shows the maximum risk score each subject has before arriving in the corresponding state, and Age$\_$years shows the mean ages of subjects in the corresponding state.}
\label{fig:hmmoutputvariables}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}[t!]
\centering
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth, trim={.0cm 15.0cm 0.0cm 0cm},clip]{figures/hmmstatetransitions.pdf}
\caption{State transition patterns are shown as temporal summary. Each row represents a subject's timeline (horizontal axis, in months), where each color band indicates the subject's dwell time in the corresponding state (state 0: green; state 1: yellow, state 2: red).}
\label{fig:statetransitions}
\end{figure}

There are several outputs from the HMM that can be visualized to draw insights. One of them is the state sequence of the trained model applied to visit observations from individual subjects in the training, validation or independent datasets.
We apply DPVis for exploring these outputs~\cite{kwon2020dpvis} to gain an understanding of progression patterns captured by the trained model.
Figure~\ref{fig:hmmoutputvariables} shows a summary of the selected 11-state model when applied to the training, validation and independent datasets.
Consistent with what we observed looking only at the average dwell times, we found three segments for state transition probabilities. In terms of observed variables used in the model (IAA, GADA, and IA2A) and their distributions, we can confirm that each segment, which we are calling a ``trajectory,'' follows different state transition patterns.
The first trajectory includes three states: 0, 1, and 2.
State 0 has low probabilities of all three islet autoantibodies (state 0), which are followed by high probabilities of all three (state 1), and then high probability of IA-2A (state 2).
The second trajectory includes five states: 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7.
State 3 has low probabilities of all three islet autoantibodies, followed by states which add islet autoantibodies IAA, IA-2A, and GADA one by one (states 4,5,6 respectively), and then lose IAA at the end (state 7).
Finally, the third trajectory starts with low probabilities of all three islet autoantibodies (state 8), followed by high probability of GADA (state 9) and high probabilities of GADA and IA-2A (state 10).

We can further visualize the heterogeneity of the three trajectories using DPVis.
Figure~\ref{fig:statetransitions} shows an overview of state transition patterns as a function of the age of subjects (horizontal axis).
Each row represents a subject's timeline and each color band represents the subject's dwell time in the corresponding state.
We filtered the view to focus on the first trajectory pattern (state 0 (green), 1 (yellow), and 2 (red)).
Although all subjects follow the same state transition pattern (0--1--2), the plot reveals that each subject makes state transitions at different ages.
For example, dwell times for state 0 (green) are very different between subjects.
The first subject includes a very short state 0 dwell time (less than a year) and there are subjects who dwell in state 0 for more than 10 years.
The subsequent states, 2 and 3, also show heterogeneity in terms of entering ages and dwell times. We can draw similar insights from the other two trajectories.

\section*{Discussion \& Conclusion}

We present an analytic approach that combines the power of modeling with HMMs and interactive visualization techniques for application in longitudinal observational datasets. We show that this approach can draw meaningful insights for understanding disease progression even when data had been collected at irregular intervals and is categorical by nature. Furthermore, we describe various aspects of modeling that one may need to consider with HMMs and how interactive visualization can supplement in this effort. In particular, we applied the above methods to the domain of T1D datasets using islet autoantibodies as biomarkers of disease progression.

As a result of training multiple models with different parameters, and using a principled approach for model selection, we found that an 11-state model showed good model fit, low error rates, and low model complexity, at least for these datasets.  In addition, the model captured patterns (of islet autoantibody progression) that are similar to some recent reports~\cite{steck_predictors_2015, endesfelder_novel_2016, endesfelder_time-resolved_2019}. This is important as it speaks to the usefulness of our approach, especially when these reports are from large multi-site NIH funded ongoing studies (of T1D) that are collecting data at more frequent and regular intervals, also to understand the heterogeneity of disease among many other aims. Needless to say that our approach may be highly desirable for other similar chronic conditions that have been studied in past natural history studies.

Additionally, we have shown the value of interactive visualization to summarize disease progression patterns. In the following qualitative evaluation using interactive visualizations, we have shown that the HMM model is able to provide a population-level summary of state transition patterns. These are the three trajectories and details in terms of dwell times and transition ages as discussed above. These insights may have practical applications that are yet to be understood. Therefore, as next steps, we are evaluating many of the model outputs (state characteristics) in more detail. At the same time, we are also working on advanced modeling (using a combination of categorical and numerical  variables) as well as constraining the model in other useful ways and on enhancing the visualization approach with many features to better support a clinically focused set of users. We plan to disseminate this work in future.

\section*{Acknowledgment}

We wish to thank the T1DI Study Group for their help in this work and study participants of the other two studies.
The T1DI Study Group consists of following members: 1) JDRF--Frank Martin, Jessica Dunne, Olivia Lou; 2) IBM--Vibha Anand, Mohamed Ghalwash, Eileen Koski, Bum Chul Kwon, Ying Li, Zhiguo Li, Bin Liu, Ashwani Malhotra, Kenney Ng; 3) DiPiS--Helena Elding Larsson, Josefine J\"onsson, \AA{}ke Lernmark, Markus Lundgren, Marlena Maziarz, Lampros Spiliopoulos; 4) BABYDIAB--Peter Achenbach, Christiane Winkler, Anette Ziegler; 5) DIPP--Heikki Hy\"oty, Jorma Ilonen, Mikael Knip, Jorma Toppari, Riitta Veijola; 6) DEW-IT--Bill Hagopian, Michael Killian, Darius Schneider; 7) DAISY--Brigitte Frohnert, Jill Norris, Marian Rewers, Andrea Steck, Kathleen Waugh, Liping Yu.
This work was supported in part by JDRF (1-IND-2019-717-I-X, 1-SRA-2019-722-I-X, 1-SRA-2019-723-I-X, 1-SRA-2019-719-I-X, 1-SRA-2019-721-I-X, 1-SRA-2019-720-I-X).

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Home Formula 1 Kevin Magnussen: If we get points, we'll be happy
Kevin Magnussen: If we get points, we'll be happy
Kevin Magnussen made his first career Formula One start in the 2014 Australian Grand Prix. It was an incredibly stout performance as he started fourth and finished second. The 18 points Magnussen earned for that runner-up effort put him in the Formula One record book for the most points scored in a debut. And unless a new driver wins in his first race, it's a feat that won't be beaten. (Next best is Felipe Nasr, who scored 10 points in his debut via a fifth-place finish in the 2015 Australian Grand Prix.) Now the Haas driver is ready for the Melbourne challenge once again.
In 2016, Haas F1 Team was starting from scratch, and that had its own unique challenges. To get ready for 2017, the team had to race its 2016 car while simultaneously developing the 2017 car. It's what every Formula One team does, but that was Haas F1 Team's first time doing so. But considering how every team improved for 2018 and none seemed handicapped in terms of engine and chassis design, do you envision 2018 being Haas F1 Team's most challenging season yet?
"Challenging? I don't know. It's going to be a good season, another good season. The first two for the team has been quite successful. It's going to be difficult to improve them but, of course, that is our aim."
Haas F1 Team tested at Circuit de Barcelona – Catalunya for eight days over a 12-day span. How did it go and how did it prepare you for Australia?
"It went well. I think we made progress with the car. Hopefully, when we get to Australia, we have a package that we know and are happy with."
Finally race week again! ???? pic.twitter.com/4pM5UCpLQn
— Kevin Magnussen (@KevinMagnussen) March 19, 2018
How would you describe the VF-18?
"It's been pretty consistent. We've only been to one track with it, but we're going to learn a lot more about it during the season."
Did testing provide a glimpse of where Haas F1 Team stacks up to the competition, or will it only be known after a handful of races?
"That's only going to be known after the first few races."
This year's car is an evolution of last year's car, with the intent being to make it more consistent. Whether it was with aero balance or mechanical balance, do you feel the car has the kind of consistency you're looking for?
"We don't really know yet until we get to other circuits, but it worked pretty well in Barcelona."
While everyone seemed to have an opinion about the halo as each team introduced its new car, by the end of the test it all seemed pretty normal. Was it much ado about nothing, or did the halo take some getting used to?
"I think the halo will still take some time getting used to."
Haas F1 Team had a remarkable debut in the 2016 Australian Grand Prix. And in 2014, you also had a remarkable Formula One debut at Australia, starting fourth and finishing second to Nico Rosberg. How were you able to achieve such a strong result in your first Formula One race?
"I think I just went into it with a smile. I enjoyed it and didn't really think too much about the race. As I had nothing to lose, I just went for it. I drove at my best, had a bit of luck as well, and I ended up on the podium. It was a great experience and a memory I will have forever. It's always going to be quite cool to say that I finished second in my first Formula One race, although it would have been nice to win. I'll do that another time."
Beyond points, what would you like to achieve in Australia that you can take with you to Bahrain and future grands prix?
"I think simply if we get points, we'll be happy. We'll go from there."
What is your favourite part of the Melbourne Grand Prix Circuit?
"I'd say turn 11 – the chicane – because it's fast."
Explain a lap around the Melbourne Grand Prix Circuit, especially now after having competed there with the faster, current-generation car.
"Australia's cool because it's part street circuit, part road course. It's got the feeling of being a street circuit, but it has the flow of a permanent road course. It's tricky because it's bumpy in places, braking zones are twisty, and corners are tight in places. That said, it still has some good, high-speed sections like turn 11. The chicane there is really, really fast with the current-generation car. It's just exciting to be in Australia. It's the first race of the year and that brings a special feeling."
Last year trying oysters for the first time ? #tb pic.twitter.com/Mlo9IvJrDt
Albert Park circuit
Guenther Steiner
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Odra je řeka v Chorvatsku. Je dlouhá 45 km a prochází Záhřebskou župou. Řeka pramení ve vesnici Donje Podotočje soutokem vod z několika podvodních pramenů. Ústí do Kupy ve městě Sisak.

Sídla ležící u břehu řeky
Donje Podotočje, Jagodno, Poljana Čička, Žabno, Odra Sisačka, Staro Pračno, Sisak

Přítoky
Mezi přítoky Odry patří potoky Kosnica, Obdina, Ribnica, Siget a Želin.

Externí odkazy

Řeky v Chorvatsku
Povodí Kupy

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


Policy makers need to be aware of which groups of children should be prioritised when delivering interventions (eg, flu vaccination and antiviral drugs) to prevent influenza and influenza-related complications, particularly during influenza epidemics and pandemics.
- Dr Kay Wang, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford.
Children born prematurely are at an increased risk of flu-related complications, despite not being identified as an "at risk" group in UK, USA, or WHO guidelines, and should be a priority group for the seasonal flu vaccination, new research published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine suggests.
"Until now, guidelines highlighting groups at greater risk of developing complications from influenza, such as pneumonia, have been based on consensus opinion rather than on systematic assessment of the evidence", explains Dr Kay Wang, University of Oxford.
Dr Wang and colleagues from the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis of published and unpublished data to identify which groups of children seen in primary or ambulatory care with influenza or influenza-like illness are at increased risk of complications (measured as being admitted to hospital).
The review analysed data from a total of 27 studies involving 14,086 children, including 3,086 children with underlying conditions. Premature birth was identified as a new strong risk factor with approximately twice the risk of hospitalisation, based on the results of seven studies including a total of 3142 children.
Consistent with existing guidelines from the US Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, WHO, and the UK Department of Health, the findings confirm that children with neurological disorders, immunosuppression, and diabetes are at greater risk of developing influenza-related complications. Children with sickle cell disease and those aged younger than two years were also found to be at greater risk but are not currently deemed "at risk" in UK guidelines.
In contrast to all three sets of current guidelines, obese children and those with respiratory disorders (eg, asthma) were not found to be at higher risk of influenza-related complications. However, these findings are based on all children with these conditions, irrespective of their clinical severity. The authors were unable to assess the risk of hospital admission specifically among children in whom these conditions were severe.
Importantly, the analysis also found that having multiple medical conditions increased the risk of children with influenza being hospitalised. The percentage of children admitted to hospital increased from 48% in children with one condition to 74% in children with more than one condition.
Gill PJ, Ashdown HF, Wang K, Heneghan C, Roberts NW, Harnden A, Mallet S.


text:
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Fox Byte 5775 #41: Pinchas (Phinehas)
פִּינְחָס
One of the great depictions of American historical events is John Trumbull's painting, Declaration of Independence, which hangs in the Rotunda of the United States Capitol. The scene captures the moment on June 28, 1776, when the five men who drafted the Declaration present their work to the Continental Congress. Of the 56 signers of the Declaration, 42 appear in Trumbull's work, the others having died before he could obtain their images. The painting also depicts five men who did not sign, including Robert Livingston of New York. Livingston was one of the men who drafted the Declaration, but New York recalled him from the Congress before he could sign his work. In Trumbull's painting Livingston appears in the center of the drafting committee, with Roger Sherman of Connecticut on his right and Thomas Jefferson of Virginia on his left. Americans may not remember the distinguished men from Connecticut and New York, but they do remember Jefferson and John Adams of Massachusetts, two future presidents. Jefferson and Adams embraced different visions of how to govern the infant American Republic, and even though they became political rivals, they remained friends until their deaths on the same day, July 4, 1826.
There is a legend that Jefferson paid Trumbull to paint his foot on top of Adams', but it is only a legend. The two men's feet are close together in the picture, and as time and dirt wore away at the painting it came to appear that Jefferson's foot was resting on Adams'. That is not the only oddity in Trumbull's work. Like many works of art it is not entirely accurate, but is effective in capturing the spirit of the moment and of the age. So also is 1776, a musical play which humorously explores the events during that fateful summer of American independence. Howard DaSilva dominates the film version with his portrayal of Dr. Benjamin Franklin of Pennsylvania. If we are to believe the movie, independence was Adams' idea, and the declaration was expressed in Jefferson's words, but it was Franklin who brought it into being with his wisdom, wit, and ability to achieve consensus. 1776 embellishes the story with fictional dialogue, but it captures a number of famous quotes by the Founding Fathers, including Franklin's immortal words: "If we do not hang together, we shall most assuredly hang separately!"
Dr. Franklin spoke a warning to a people facing the threat of political extinction before they could become a nation. Long before Franklin uttered his warning, Yeshua of Nazareth spoke the same truth to the people He had come to redeem from the threat of extinction by the enemy of their souls:
And knowing their thoughts Jesus said to them, "Any kingdom divided against itself is laid waste; and any city or house divided against itself will not stand. (Matthew 12:25 NASB; see also Mark 9:38-40; Luke 9:49-50, 11:16-23)
In recent centuries Yeshua's followers have emphasized His messianic work of offering redemption to the entire world by satisfying with His death the debt of sin which separates humanity from our Creator (Romans 3:21-31, 5:12-17; Colossians 2:13-14; I Peter 2:21-25). This worthy message is the foundation of the American Evangelical expression of taking Jesus as one's personal savior. However, this emphasis overlooks a critical part of Yeshua's work which is only now coming into focus: the national salvation of Israel. That is precisely what Yeshua's disciples asked about in their last conversation with Him (Acts 1:6), understanding that the restoration of the entire nation is the great work of Messiah which He has yet to accomplish. Yeshua's Apostles proclaim this message in the context that all who come to faith in Yeshua are made part of the nation of Israel, the vehicle YHVH has provided for all people of all nations to enter into His Presence for eternity (Exodus 19:5-6; Romans 9:1-11:36; Ephesians 2:1-22; Galatians 3:15-29; I Peter 2:4-10; Revelation 1:4-8, 5:9-10).
It is in this understanding that the Apostle Paul refers to Abraham as "our father" and to the ancient people of Israel as "our fathers" (Romans 4:1-12; I Corinthians 10:1-13). He makes these statements in letters to the largely non-Jewish congregations of Rome and Corinth, indicating that even though they may not be physical descendants of Israel's tribes (although many of them likely were), their faith in Messiah Yeshua brought them into the nation, giving them the right to claim Abraham and his descendants as their ancestors. This is as true for us today in the 21st century as it was in for those of ancient times. We are part of Israel, and if we remain faithful to Israel's God then we can expect to obtain an inheritance among the reconstituted Tribes on that day when He restores the entire nation to the entire land. Thus it is wise to study the record of Scripture and see what happened when YHVH formed this nation and prepared it to enter the promised inheritance the first time.
As we know well, that record includes a number of blots and stains. Our ancestors were not always obedient to the Lord, and suffered mightily for their rebellion. Yet in the end He prepared a people for this mighty work of entering the Promised Land and establishing a holy kingdom through which He would bless the entire world. That is the process we see in Pinchas (Phinehas, Numbers 25:10-29:40). This Torah portion picks up where the previous portion, Balak, ends. Phinehas, Aaron's grandson, takes it upon himself execute Zimri, a leader of the tribe of Simeon, who has engaged in a blatant sexual relationship with Cozbi, a princess of the nation of Midian (Numbers 25:1-17). Is this murder? Phinehas acts without due process of law, executing the sentence of death on two adulterers just as Torah prescribes, but without the required investigation and trial (Leviticus 20:10; Deuteronomy 19:15-21, 22:22-30).
It is not murder. Phinehas acted properly, both righteously and in accordance with due process of Torah. The sin at Baal-Peor, the place where this occurred, was that the people of Israel had purposely engaged in idolatry and sexual immorality with the people of Moab and Midian, permitting their young men to accompany the young women of those nations in acts of pagan worship which featured sexual liaisons. The situation developed innocently enough in the interest of cultivating friendly relations, but in fact it was a ploy instituted at the advice of the prophet Balaam to cause the Israelites to abandon YHVH and incur His wrath. When the elders of the people failed to restrain their youth, the Lord Himself intervened and passed judgment. He Himself acted as an accuser of the people, having witnessed the lewd acts of His nation. This was no hidden sin; the people knew what was going on, but had done nothing to stop it. For that reason the Lord issued these instructions:
The Lord said to Moses, "Take all the leaders of the people and execute them in broad daylight before the Lord, so that the fierce anger of the Lord may turn away from Israel." So Moses said to the judges of Israel, "Each of you slay his men who have joined themselves to Baal of Peor." (Numbers 25:4-5 NASB)
Tragically, the leaders failed to take action. They could not, or did not, prevent Zimri from defying this order of the Lord and brazenly taking the Midianite princess to his tent. He did so even as the Lord had released a plague on the people which resulted in the deaths of 24,000 Israelites. The plague would have claimed even more lives had Phinehas not acted quickly, even as his grandfather Aaron had acted to stop another plague in the aftermath of Korah's rebellion (Numbers 16:41-50).
The Death of Ananias
The Lord's actions may seem drastic to our modern senses, but let us consider the context. Israel is the people of the Living God. By this time, 40 years after the miraculous Exodus from Egypt, having witnessed countless miracles, astounding deliverance from powerful enemies, daily provision in the desert for millions of persons, the clear presentation of God's standards of conduct, and the continuous ministrations of the Lord's priests, the people had no excuse for rebellion. The presence of pretty young ladies from Moab constituted a test to see whether they would remain true to the Lord or follow the enticement of their eyes. Many of them failed the test, and the Lord had to take action. It was no more drastic than His action in taking the lives of Ananias and Sapphira, two disciples of Yeshua whose greedy hearts moved them to lie to the Holy Spirit even though they had witnessed the Presence of YHVH in their lives and understood the righteous requirements of the holy calling placed on them (Acts 5:1-11). The Apostle Peter, who witnessed their deaths, explains this principle of God's justice:
For it is time for judgment to begin with the household of God; and if it begins with us first, what will be the outcome for those who do not obey the gospel of God? (I Peter 4:17 NASB)
Paul echoes this understanding in his admonishment to the Corinthian brethren:
But if we judged ourselves rightly, we would not be judged. But when we are judged, we are disciplined by the Lord so that we will not be condemned along with the world. (I Corinthians 11:31-32 NASB)
Perhaps with this commentary by the apostles we gain a better understanding of YHVH's astonishing pronouncement in recognition of what Phinehas had done:
Then the Lord spoke to Moses, saying, "Phinehas the son of Eleazar, the son of Aaron the priest, has turned away My wrath from the sons of Israel in that he was jealous with My jealousy among them, so that I did not destroy the sons of Israel in My jealousy. Therefore say, 'Behold, I give him My covenant of peace; and it shall be for him and his descendants after him, a covenant of a perpetual priesthood, because he was jealous for his God and made atonement for the sons of Israel.'" (Numbers 25:10-13 NASB, emphasis added)
What is this Covenant of Peace? Clearly it is something important, for God Himself promised it to Phinehas and his descendants. We find his descendants in the genealogy of I Chronicles 6:1-15. The most famous of them is Zadok, the priest who remained faithful to King David and to the son of David, Solomon (I Kings 1:1-53, 2:35). The faithfulness of the priests descended from Zadok resulted in the promise that they alone among the sons of Aaron would retain their status as priests in the Lord's restored Temple in the Messianic Age (Ezekiel 40:45-46, 43:19, 44:15-31, 48:11). We may conclude, therefore, that the Covenant of Peace involves a priestly function, interceding for the people of Israel and perhaps for the world, and teaching the difference between the holy and the profane or common. And that is wonderful, if one is to be a priest. But what does it possibly have to do with the rest of us?
More than we may imagine. Consider these passages from Isaiah and Ezekiel:
"For this is like the days of Noah to Me, when I swore that the waters of Noah would not flood the earth again; so I have sworn that I will not be angry with you nor will I rebuke you. For the mountains may be removed and the hills may shake, but My lovingkindness will not be removed from you, and My covenant of peace will not be shaken," says the Lord who has compassion on you. (Isaiah 54:9-10 NASB, emphasis added)
I will make a covenant of peace with them and eliminate harmful beasts from the land so that they may live securely in the wilderness and sleep in the woods. I will make them and the places around My hill a blessing. And I will cause showers to come down in their season; they will be showers of blessing. Also the tree of the field will yield its fruit and the earth will yield its increase, and they will be secure on their land. Then they will know that I am the Lord, when I have broken the bars of their yoke and have delivered them from the hand of those who enslaved them. They will no longer be a prey to the nations, and the beasts of the earth will not devour them; but they will live securely, and no one will make them afraid. (Ezekiel 34:25-28 NASB, emphasis added)
My servant David will be king over them, and they will all have one shepherd; and they will walk in My ordinances and keep My statutes and observe them. They will live on the land that I gave to Jacob My servant, in which your fathers lived; and they will live on it, they, and their sons and their sons' sons, forever; and David My servant will be their prince forever. I will make a covenant of peace with them; it will be an everlasting covenant with them. And I will place them and multiply them, and will set My sanctuary in their midst forever. My dwelling place also will be with them; and I will be their God, and they will be My people. And the nations will know that I am the Lord who sanctifies Israel, when My sanctuary is in their midst forever. (Ezekiel 37:24-28 NASB, emphasis added)
We may not know exactly what it is, but we do know from these words that YHVH plans to establish this Covenant with His entire nation of Israel at the time Messiah reigns over all the Tribes. Each of these passages deals with that promise, noting the rebellion of Israel and the resulting punishment, but concluding with the glorious restoration done not for our sake, but for the sake of the Lord's great Name. If there were any doubt whether this applies only to the Jewish people, the passage in Ezekiel 37 helps our understanding. Those verses are the conclusion of the famous "Two Sticks" prophecy – the promised restoration of the House of Judah and the House of Israel, or Joseph, known as Ephraim, along with their companions who have come out of the nations. Thus it would seem that this Covenant of Peace does have something to do with all of us who are part of Israel. And it seems that we have a priestly function to perform. But what could that possibly be?
How about interceding for all the nations so that the Lord does not consume them? According to the rabbis, that is the purpose of offering 70 bulls during the seven days of the Feast of Sukkot (Tabernacles), followed by a single bull offered for Israel itself on the eighth day of the feast (Numbers 29:12–36). The bulls make an atonement for the nations who, in ignorance, persist in rebellion against YHVH. As we know, the blood of bulls and goats does not remove sin, for only the Blood of Messiah can do that. However, if a righteous man like Elijah can make effective prayers that the Lord hears and acts upon (James 5:16-18), what happens when a righteous nation does the same? Even Elijah had a crisis of faith when he fled from the wicked Queen Jezebel, but the Lord revealed to him that He had 7,000 faithful servants in Israel who had not bowed to Baal (I Kings 18:46-19:21). Those 7,000 surely interceded as well, ensuring that YHVH had mercy on Israel and on Judah, allowing even more people to come to repentance and escape eventual judgment. Why, then, would we find it hard to believe that the entire nation of Israel, restored into the favor of Almighty God, is destined to perform the same function for the nations of the earth? And if the offerings prescribed by the Lord on His designated feasts days are both a form of worship and a type of intercession, then it only makes sense that these 70 bulls offered at Sukkot are on behalf of those who, in the darkness of their souls, are unable as yet to draw near.
"The Daughters of Zelophehad", from The Bible and Its Story Taught by One Thousand Picture Lessons via Wikimedia Commons
When we come to this understanding we realize that the inheritance of the Promised Land is not so that God's people may live happily ever after (although that is a blessed result of this process), but so that we may have a base from which to perform this holy calling. Everything must be done in order, and thus the Lord established the rules of inheritance for His people, taking care not to exclude the daughters of men who had no sons (Numbers 27:1-14). That was the case of the daughters of Zelophehad of the tribe of Manasseh. In normal circumstances they would have married and become part of their husbands' households, taking a new identity even as we, the bride of Messiah our King, take on His identity. That new identity would not diminish the identity of their father's house, for it is sons who have the task of carrying on the family name. Yet if there are no sons, then the daughters have the responsibility to continue the name of their father. To look at it another way, the role of daughters in uniting with men of another household and taking on their identity does not diminish their status as human beings created in the image of Holy God. The different roles of women and men do not translate into a difference of status, for neither is inferior to the other. This is something the Apostle Paul stated unambiguously, noting that male, female, slave, free, Jew, and Greek are all one in Messiah (Galatians 3:27-29).
Sadly, some among the people of Israel were not prepared to accept these things. The tribe of Simeon in particular were not ready to submit to the judgments of God when His justice required the execution of one of their princes. They were not alone; others in various tribes seemed to take issue with the holy reaction of YHVH against the rebellion at Baal-Peor, and apparently they opted to leave the camp and create a new reality of their own. Such is the conclusion we draw in comparing the census of the tribes conducted immediately after the Baal-Peor incident (Numbers 26:1-56) with the census conducted 39 years earlier (Numbers 1:1-46).
The numbers show that something strange happened not only to the tribe of Simeon, but to the entire Camp of Reuben. Why would Reuben, Simeon, and Gad lose nearly 30% of their combined strength, and Simeon lose over 60%? This occurred over a period when most of the other tribes gained in numbers. Perhaps the Baal-Peor incident is the answer. It is possible that over half the people of Simeon chose to leave the nation of Israel rather than submit to what they regarded as an outrage and an insult to their tribal honor. If so, then they preferred to renew their rebellion against the Lord rather than submit to His judgment, and in the process they took thousands with them from other tribes. This fits with the impetuous, violent nature of Simeon as revealed in Scripture (Genesis 34:1-31, 49:5-7), and it is a tragedy of immense proportions. After 40 years of trials in which this younger generation had at last come to the threshold of inheriting the promises their parents had rejected, these Israelites chose to disqualify themselves rather than enter into the Kingdom. Some may have repented later and come back, but the damage was done. In a sad commentary on the future of Simeon, I Chronicles 4:27 relates that not all of their family multiplied like the sons of Judah. In other words, Simeon was blessed as part of the nation, but not blessed to the fullness, quite possibly because of a continued resistance to the ways of the Lord.
Moses Blesses Joshua Before the High Priest
And without Simeon at full strength, the nation suffered. We learn in Numbers 27:15-23 that YHVH designated Joshua of Ephraim to succeed Moses in leadership of the nation. It is no coincidence that Joshua's name in Hebrew is Yehoshua, or Yeshua, the very same name as the Son of David Who completed that Messianic mission of redeeming the nation. Joshua did not do away with the commandments of Moses, but followed them in His governance of the tribes and exhorted the people to remain true to the Torah YHVH had given through Moses (Joshua 23:1-13). In the same way, Yeshua of Nazareth continued in the commandments of Moses, exhorting His followers to remain true to the Torah (Matthew 5:17-19, 23:1-3, 26:59-61; Mark 14:55-59; John 5:45-47). There is a reason for this. If the nation is to succeed, it must have a single standard of conduct. If there is no single standard, then the nation is divided as every person does what is right in his or her own eyes. Each division represents a diminishing of strength and a compromise with destiny, ultimately resulting in failure of our national purpose and a blot on the Name of our God. That has been the history of Israel from its inception. The question before us in this generation is whether we will choose to continue down that path, or finally walk into the fullness of our national destiny.
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© Albert J. McCarn and The Barking Fox Blog, 2014-2015. Permission to use and/or duplicate original material on The Barking Fox Blog is granted, provided that full and clear credit is given to Albert J. McCarn and The Barking Fox Blog with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.
Author: Albert J. McCarn
I am a lifelong disciple of Jesus (Yeshua) of Nazareth, an avid student of the Bible, a devoted husband and father, a 29-year veteran of the United States Army, and a historian who connects people with their own stories.	View all posts by Albert J. McCarn
Author Albert J. McCarnPosted on July 13, 2015 July 20, 2015 Categories Commonwealth of Israel, Godly Living, Israelite Identity, Sukkot/Tabernacles, Torah, Yeshua as MessiahTags 1776, Aaron, Abraham, Acts, American, Anananias, Apostle Paul, Apostle Peter, Baal, Baal-Peor, Balaam, Balak, Benjamin Franklin, Camp of Reuben, Colossians, Connecticut, Continental Congress, Corinth, Covenant of Peace, Cozbi, Creator, Daughters of Zelophehad, Declaration of Independence, Deuteronomy, Elijah, Ephesians, Ephraim, Evangelical, Exodus, Ezekiel, Feast of Tabernacles, Founding Fathers, Gad, Galatians, Genesis, God, Gospel of John, Gospel of Luke, Gospel of Mark, Gospel of Matthew, Holy Spirit, Howard DaSilva, I Chronicles, I Corinthians, I Kings, I Peter, Isaiah, Israel, James, Jesus, Jewish, Jewish people, Jews, Jezebel, John Adams, John Trumbull, Joshua, Judah, King David, Korah, Leviticus, Living God, Manasseh, Massachusetts, Messiah, Messiah Yeshua, Messianic Age, Midian, Midianite, Moab, Moses, Naphtali, New York, Numbers, Pennsylvania, personal savior, Phineas, Phinehas, Pinchas, promised land, Reuben, Revelation, Robert Livingston, Roger Sherman, Romans, Rome, Rotunda, Sapphira, Simeon, Solomon, Sukkot, Temple, Thomas Jefferson, Torah, Tribes of Israel, Twelve Tribes, two sticks, United States Capitol, Virginia, Yehoshua, Yeshua, Yeshua of Nazareth, YHVH, Zadok, Zelophehad, Zimri
One thought on "Fox Byte 5775 #41: Pinchas (Phinehas)"
Great article! Regarding the area of Identity, Covenant of Peace, priestly function and interceding for the nations. Psalm 122 seems to say just that.We know this popular Psalm as the Pray for the Peace of Jerusalem verse, but there is much more to it regarding the tribes going up standing within the gates of Jerusalem to interecede. Just think if the tribes did do this at the feasts or those of us even at this time that know our identity as Israel went up each feast, to give thanks to the name of YHWH to pray for our brothers and companions what an amazing testimony of Israel as it states in this passage that might be 🙂 Might this also correlate to 2Chronicles 7:14-16. v.15 and 16 are referring to a specific place it seems as well. Blessings.
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Peer-to-Peer Power 10x
Collaboration Respect Transformation
Key Point: Peer-to-peer power. I thought I understood how important this idea was and then recently watched this principle blossom into something that made me realize it can truly be exponential in advancing both results and culture.
My organization needed 50 people to lead a major initiative with the mandate to truly revolutionize the way we work; 5,000 plus team members contributing in much more collaborative and productive ways. We did NOT ask for leaders to recommend candidates. Rather, we outlined exactly what attributes we were looking for and invited people to "audition." The result was remarkable… Hundreds of passionate, excited prospects emerged, many that we would likely have never "found" through the normal channels.
When we selected the final 50, they represented every level and other identity domain of the company; region, age, experience, gender, line of business, etc. We then asked them to leave their roles, titles and rest "at the door" as they came together for a 30 day boot camp. Their final output was to present a detailed framework for revolutionizing the way we work; including but not limited to implementing a new productivity technology platform (Google's G Suite), 10x better processes, measurable milestones, and so on. The "capstone" presentations that represented their work were given thus past Friday, followed by a "graduating" ceremony and celebration. The content of the work was stunningly exceptional.
As the cohort gathered in a circle to recount how the 30-day boot camp experience impacted them personally and professionally, it was somewhat "jaw dropping" in the most inspirational way. The respect, gratitude, growth and overwhelming sense of collective accomplishment was astonishing. I have seen teams come together in the past, but this was something special… Actually, magical.
The experience and observation reinforced that unleashing more of this peer power is a vital competent of modern organizations. The principles include and are not limited to the following:
Provide for people to raise their hands and audition; transparently invite passion to prevail over managers' nominations and selections.
Bring people from every part of the company fabric to come together as a dedicated cohort to bust artificial silos into oblivion.
Let titles and position stature become subordinate to the ideas, imagination, and unique skills of a cohort.
Understand that people will come together in deep care and respect for each other if the purpose is clear and values/expectations are intentionally stated.
Recognize that many "hives" of these groups coming together in short powerful sprints will revolutionize the organization.
This is the way work should and will be done. Yes, we will have individual responsibilities and accountability. And we will have a direct "boss." However, much of our time and contribution will be spent on strategically important initiatives where we can jump in and give our most incredible best. This will involve providing an organization/social platform where a genius collection of skills, attributes, imagination and ideas prevail over traditional vertical structures. How powerful… How democratizing… How profoundly 10x better. It will result in a work revolution.
If you could raise your hand and audition for an initiative that could change your organization in a 10x way, what would that be? Who would you like to work with? How fast could you come up with exponential recommendations? What stops you from doing it? How could you change that?
Peer Power in The Triangle,
One Millennial View: Wow, how cool. Y'know? More and more, I'm under the impression that some people make up their own roadblocks and create reasons they are unable to "raise their hand" and propose 10x improvement. It could be fear, or wanting to maintain comfort, or a million other misinterpretations… But I'd be willing to raise my hand and bet that as long as the objective has the intention to benefit the whole company, anyone can deliver their idea to any higher up worth their salt. Auditioning can be scary, but if you never do it, you'll never get the part. (Little tip straight from Hollywood, ha).
Zoom Out and Back For Bad Ass Greatness


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text:
Q: Why is not celery executing periodic task? Apologies if my question is too basic, But unfortunately i couldn't understand how to use periodic tasks properly from official documentation/tutorial.
I wanted to create periodic task executing function every 300 seconds (5 minutes), deleting all objects of model Trades which have existed longer than 300 seconds.
So i simply created a file called tasks.py under Project/Home directory (directory which consists of models.py, urls.py, views.py and etc.)
And i added this script:
from celery.decorators import periodic_task
from Home.models import Trades
import datetime

@periodic_task(run_every=300) # Run every 5 minutes.
    def remove_old():
        for i in Trades.objects.all():
            time_now = timezone.now()
            time_generated = i.generation_date
            time_elapsed = time_now - time_generated
            if int(time_elapsed.total_seconds()) > 300: # If an object has existed longer than 5 minutes, It must be deleted.
                i.remove()

For some reason, no objects were deleted after 5 minutes, Even though they were generated yesterday, I'm sure they are older than 300 seconds.
What could the problem be? Is there something with my code?

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Q: Update GUI components from Begininvoke So I have a very basic Windows Application where I want to count from 1 to 10000
and show the numbers in label:
private void button1_Click(object sender, EventArgs e)
    {
        Thread thread = new Thread(() =>
        {
            for (int i = 0; i < 10000; i++)
            {
                BeginInvoke((MethodInvoker)delegate ()
                {
                    label3.Text = i.ToString();
                });
            }
        });

        thread.Start();
}

The problem is that the label text doesn't update and shows only the last loop counter i.e. 9999. Is BeginInvoke called on UI thread? Why  does not the label get updated correctly?
Thanks.

A: Because BeginInvoke is an asynchronous call, you're sending too many updates to the text box for it to update fast enough, by the time the text box has got around to drawing, it's already counted up to 10000!
You can synchronously update the text, that is, the calling loop will halt until the text box has updated and finished, use Invoke instead of BeginInvoke.


Nowadays, enterprise is being conducted exterior the four partitions of your company workplace. I also bought the Personal Energy program in 1985.I used to be excited and I felt it helped me in lots of areas of my life.I refer again the old casette tapes every now and then.I've informed others and some care little to enhance their life even after I offered the identical tapes for isn't for everyone.I slightly improve just a little than none at all.I don't like all of the t.v. hype.Possibly that is what you must do to sell and make money.I assist all the thousands of individuals he has helped along with his strategies.I like the response you bought and the totally different factors of view.Thanks for sharing.
That is why I like to recommend attending lectures on regulation, enterprise, politics, and present events. They are going to accuse Obama of providing amnesty to the undocumented, say that foreigners are taking American jobs away, and spread false rumors. This text framed the historical past of racial politics and political alliances with great readability, and its evaluation of the present moment struck me as being completely appropriate.
2. An awareness of the history of a rustic is particularly effective for understanding attitudes about the function of government and enterprise, the relations between managers and the managed, the sources of management authority, and attitudes toward foreign MNC's.
Generally it really frustrates me. Its one in every of two points in my very own life that make me feel like I reside on Mars and sporadically will get a roomful of perfectly good people screaming at me and each other. You may also visit the corporate sites of your corporation counterparts to learn about their enterprise culture, goals, missions or present tasks that may be nationwide or international.
That's the reason I imagine in posting such long articles, as a result of our Wrestle is just not within the mode and type of a McDonald's Burger; our Wrestle won't go anyplace so long as we prefer brief-cuts to learning as affected by the nature of the Social media.


The drummer Han Bennink broke the skin of his snare drum because he hit it so hard, and then he stood up and played a pipe in the wall. He knocked the new snare drum over by accident, and played it on the floor. He played the floor itself, too, and put towels over his drums and whacked them all. He put the case covers of his drums on the drums and played them, and stuck a drumstick in his mouth and tapped on that, changing the pitch of the sound. On the surface, Mr. Bennink was performing a theater piece; beyond it was a deep musicality that the show couldn't hide.
Mr. Bennink was performing with a trio on Monday night at the Knitting Factory as part of its Texaco New York Jazz Festival, and like his pianist, Michiel Borstlap, and his bassist, Ernst Glerum, he moved easily between swinging jazz and free playing. Mr. Bennink is clearly a technically accomplished jazz drummer, and everything he did finally came back to the impulse to swing. He used brushes, and even when he was playing the floor, he swung like Jo Jones. And Mr. Borstlap brought several jazz vocabularies to the performance, moving from crystalline, quiet sections to rushing single-note lines.


 J.P. Davim, P. Reis, and C.C. Antonio. Experimental study of drilling glass fiber reinforced plastics (GFRP) manufactured by hand lay-up. Composites Science and Technology, 64(2):289–297, 2004. doi: 10.1016/S0266-3538(03)00253-7.
 A. Ataş and C. Soutis. Subcritical damage mechanisms of bolted joints in CFRP composite laminates. Composites Part B: Engineering, 54:20–27, 2013. doi: 10.1016/j.compositesb.2013.04.071.
 A.M. Girão Coelho and J.T. Mottram. A review of the behaviour and analysis of bolted connections and joints in pultruded fibre reinforced polymers. Materials & Design, 74:86–107, 2015. doi: 10.1016/j.matdes.2015.02.011.
 Z. Cao and M. Cardew-Hall. Interference-fit riveting technique in fiber composite laminates. Aerospace Science and Technology, 10(4):327–330, 2006. doi: 10.1016/j.ast.2005.11.003.
 M. Kłonica, J. Kuczmaszewski, M.P. Kwiatkowski, and J. Ozonek. Polyamide 6 surface layer following ozone treatment. International Journal of Adhesion and Adhesives, 64:179–187, 2016. doi: 10.1016/j.ijadhadh.2015.10.017.
 R.F. Gibson. Principles of composite material mechanics. CRC Press, 4 edition, 2016.
 R. Bielawski, M. Kowalik, K. Suprynowicz, and P. Pyrzanowski. Possibility of usage of aluminium rivet nuts connections in composite materials. In Solid State Phenomena, volume 240, pages 137–142. Trans Tech Publications, 2016. doi: 10.4028/www.scientific.net/SSP.240.137.
 L. Blaga, J.F. Dos Santos, R. Bancila, and S.T. Amancio-Filho. Friction Riveting (FricRiveting) as a new joining technique in GFRP lightweight bridge construction. Construction and Building Materials, 80:167–179, 2015. doi: 10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2015.01.001.
 N. Chowdhury, W.K. Chiu, J. Wang, and P. Chang. Static and fatigue testing thin riveted, bonded and hybrid carbon fiber double lap joints used in aircraft structures. Composite Structures, 121:315–323, 2015. doi: 10.1016/j.compstruct.2014.11.004.
 J.-H. Yun, J.-H. Choi, and J.-H. Kweon. A study on the strength improvement of the multi-bolted joint. Composite Structures, 108:409–416, 2014. doi: 10.1016/j.compstruct.2013.09.047.
 M. Rodzewicz. An investigation into the strength and fatigue properties of a high-loaded aeronautical composite structures. In Proceedings of the Eight International Seminar Resent Research and Design Progress in Aeronautical Engineering and its Influence on Education, Brno, Czech Republic, 2008.
 K. Palanikumar. Experimental investigation and optimisation in drilling of GFRP composites. Measurement, 44(10):2138–2148, 2011. doi: 10.1016/j.measurement.2011.07.023.
 C. Atas. Bearing strength of pinned joints in woven fabric composites with small weaving angles. Composite structures, 88(1):40–45, 2009. doi: 10.1016/j.compstruct.2008.04.002.
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In geometry, students work with a lot of different shapes. One of the most important polygons to become familiar with is the pentagon.
All pentagons have five straight sides, but the sides do not have to be of equal length.
A regular pentagon has five equal sides and five equal angles. In basic geometry, most problems will involve regular polygons.
Each interior angle of a regular pentagon = 108 degrees.
Each exterior angle of a regular pentagon = 72 degrees.
The sum of the interior angles of a regular pentagon = 540 degrees.
Drawing diagonal lines between the points of pentagon will result in a perfect star shape or pentagram.
If the five sides of a shape are NOT connected or the shape has a curved side(s), it is NOT a pentagon.
*The apothem is the line from the center of the pentagon to a side, intersecting the side at a 90º right angle.
Why the Pentagon is a pentagon: The headquarters of the U.S. Dept. of Defense in Washington, DC is named the Pentagon. This massive concrete and steel building has a total floor area of almost 7 million square feet and 17.5 miles of corridors. At the beginning of WWII in 1941, President Roosevelt decided a new building was needed for the War Dept.
The architect chose to take advantage of the properties of a symmetrical pentagon. Doing so shortened the distance people would have to walk from one office to another within this huge building when compared to a traditional rectangular building. A circular building would have also incorporated shorter walking distances, but constructing a building with straight sides such as a pentagon was much easier and faster.
Okra: Next time you're eating fried okra or gumbo, take a look at a slice of okra. It's shaped like a pentagon.
Starfish: Almost all starfish have a fivefold radial symmetry or are shaped like pentagons.
Poetry: There is actually something known as pentagon poetry.
Musical Pentagons: If you like music from the 1980s, check out Rich Clare's Pentagon Band. For something different, South Korea has a boy band named Pentagon.
As you can see, a pentagon is a very useful shape. Not only is a pentagon frequently used in basic geometry, it is a shape useful in architecture and found throughout the natural world.


Games have started today, September 24 for the 43rd World Chess Olympiad in the Eastern European city of Batumi in Georgia and Malawi team are up against all Grandmaster Brazilian opponents in the men's Open Section.
Games started at 13:00 hours Malawian time with GM Alexander Fier v Fide Master (FM) Gerrard Mphungu, GM Luis Paulo Supi v George Mwale, GM Krikor Sevag Mekhitarian v Candidate Master (CM) Chiletso Chipanga and GM Felipe de Cresce el Debs v Richard Chiona.
The women's opponents from Luxembourg have one Grandmaster (WIM) Elvira Berend, two International Master (WIM) Liana Aghabekiam, Fiona Steil-Antoni, one Fidemaster (Wfm) Grayna Bakalarz and WCM Hanten Elsa.
Chess Association of Malawi (Chessam) publicity secretary Alfred Chinthere said one of Malawi's strongest player CM Joseph Mwale is on the bench because he arrived late as he had to fly out from his base in South Africa to connect with the rest of the squad in Tbilisi, the Georgian capital city.
Chinthere said a Grandmaster is the highest title one can attain in the game of chess and is basically achieved over a period of time almost 10 years, through consistent wins in top tournaments, via rigorious study of chess literature/books in academies or using accreditated chess trainers/chess computer engines.
"Africa has about 10 Grandmasters. Sub-Saharan Africa has ever produced two GMs in the names Amon Simutowe of Zambia (who stays in USA) and Ken Solomon of South Africa (based in Italy).
"Worldwide, the GMs are over 1,500 with Europe producing the most. So basically today's match between Malawi and Brazil is a 'David v Goliath'," Chinthere said.
The Malawi team departed in a buoyant mood after undergoing a specialised training camp in Blantyre mentored by Russian GM Vasily Papin who drilled the squad for two weeks in August.


Not interested in the 12-60mm? See the 14-140mm kit here!
Panasonic Lumix G Vario 45-150mm f/4-5.6 ASPH. MEGA O.I.S.
A telephoto and stabilized lens, great to pair with a 12-32mm for your mirrorless camera.
Upgraded, redesigned, and filled with features, the Lumix DC-GH5 Mirrorless Micro Four Thirds Digital Camera from Panasonic provides an outstanding imaging platform for shooters who demand some of the best video and still photography quality they can get in a single compact camera.


text:
« That's a Stretch
Comic Art Friday: Brush strokes with destiny »
Snatched: the final pebble
I awakened this morning to the sad news that actor David Carradine had been found dead in a Bangkok hotel suite, the victim of an apparent suicide.
For us children of the '70s, Carradine was and always will be Kwai Chang Caine, the contemplative Shaolin master who wandered the American West in the classic TV series Kung Fu. To younger audiences, he'll be remembered as the title character in Quentin Tarantino's two-part assassins-gone-wild epic, Kill Bill.
As a teenage martial arts film fan — and more specifically, as a devotee of cinema's greatest hand-fighting hero, Bruce Lee — I recall vividly the controversy engendered when Lee was passed over for the lead in Kung Fu (the concept for which Lee originated, according to his widow) in favor of the Caucasian Carradine. Looking back on the series as it evolved, though, it's difficult to imagine that Lee would have been better suited for the role than was Carradine. Indeed, Lee's natural intensity and charisma might have worked against the character — he consistently outshone his top-billed costar Van Williams during their days on The Green Hornet — whereas Carradine's quieter, gentler approach made an effective match.
Unfortunately for Carradine, with the role of Caine so indelibly etched into the public consciousness, he found it difficult to land decent roles in major films for the next three decades. A rare exception: his Golden Globe-nominated turn as politically charged folksinger Woody Guthrie in the biopic Bound for Glory. In and around the infrequent big-studio production (Death Race 2000, The Long Riders), Carradine coasted along, making scads of execrable direct-to-video junk and hawking Asian health supplements and martial arts instructional tapes.
He even reprised Caine — sort of — in a tepid early-1990s syndicated series called Kung Fu: The Legend Continues, in which Carradine starred as the original Caine's modern-day namesake grandson, who by sheer television coincidence is also a Shaolin priest and kung fu master.
A decade later, Tarantino came knocking. Which made sense, given QT's passion for cheesy action epics and all things '70s.
After the success of Kill Bill, Carradine became ubiquitous. He turned up in a couple dozen projects over the past five years, most recently the Jason Statham action sequel Crank: High Voltage.
Given Carradine's serene public persona, the news of his suicide comes as a shock. Then again, who truly knows what darkness dwells in the heart of another human being?
Funny… I can imagine Caine saying that.
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Four designs in one size. Mineral-based archival inks with resin printed on 310gsm Hahnemühle Museum Etching paper, deckled and straight edge. Available framed and unframed.
Prints in each edition are numbered, and signed by the artist.
'Drawing is the point of departure for all my design projects, but I have always believed that it can also be an end in itself – something I call "drawing for drawing." I attach great importance to this practice because it is the link to my visual arts background and education. It is also the only time, as a designer, when I assume complete responsibility from the beginning to the end of the process.
I moved to the large format of 700 x 1000mm to give the drawings more autonomy. It was at this time that I also started to consider the possibility of duplication; I was looking for a process whereby the reproduced drawing, having lost its status as a unique work, is neither an exact reproduction nor a duplicate of the original, but rather an interpretation of it.


Scottish Power offers a fantastic utility service that is unmatched, and they do so in a way that is useful to everyone in the community. There are many different people who must use the digging service, and they will learn quite a lot about their homes or offices, and they may do safe construction in areas where cables may be. This article explains how someone may contact Scottish Power for assistance with digging, and they will find all the assistance they need when they wish to complete a new building project.
Digging is the most-important part of a new project as it may run into cables or pipes that are buried underground. Someone who is preparing a new project must ensure they have taken time to ask about digging, and they may find a company that will come out to mark for digging. The Scottish Power team will send someone out, and they will ensure the company has given every option possible for marking. They will show where there are other lines in the area, and they will explain to the customer how everything is being marked. They do not leave anything out, and they will help educate the customer on the process of marking.
The marking process does not take all that much time, but it must be scheduled in-advance to ensure it is done properly. Someone who is searching for marking will find it much easier, and they will learn quickly that they may call for any new project. They may do so for any home or office, and they may ask when they believe there is an issue in their community. Calling the phone number before digging will prevent any problems that may arise when the digging process begins.
The company will send a proper truck to the location, and they will show customers how the marking will work when it is done properly. They prefer to be helpful when working on new projects, and they will explain to customers why they must mark in the way they do. Customers may keep up with what has been done, and they may do in any way they like.
Marking is free when someone calls the phone number found at http://www.ukcontactnumbers.org.uk/scottish-power-contact-number/ before digging, and they will have someone walk them through the process of marking for their home. The company will give an explanation of how they must complete the process, and they will put the customer on their calendar. All marking must be done before there is any digging, and the customer will be cited if they have not called before works begins.
The Scottish Power team will send someone out to the site to ensure all marking is done in the proper manner, and they will do so in a timely fashion after they have been called. They prefer to move quickly for their customers, and they will not waste time once they have begun painting lines. Marking helps with safety, and digging may be done in the proper spots going forward.


As more people and companies than ever are investing in domain names, it has become evident that not all of these names will realise their full income earning potential. as a Domain reseller and investor with a reasonable sized portfolio ,I have often been asked the best way to make money from these investment domains. the following are the most common ways to create an income stream or maximize resale value.
These places pay a percentage of the advertising revenue derived from ads placed on a page displayed when someone visits your domain. Also most of these parking services also offer a sales listing service to enable easy resale marketing of your domain.
Similar to the above ,only you create your own small Website with ads and get 100% of the revenue. This however will not be as profitable because the parking services get a much greater traffic flow.
Selling services or products and also have some ads and paid links.This can be either selling your own products or as an affiliate for an existing online website.
At any of the above stages of development and Value adding,you can make money by reselling the Domain/Site for an increased value above the purchase price.
If a particular type of name is hot property ,all the similar names increase in value because of the demand.
If the Name is Not listed by the major search engines or is on page 346 than value is low, conversely if it is listed on the first page of the listings than value will be higher.
Buyer may want the name for a specific purpose and will pay a premium to ensure they get it.
like "P*yP*lFees.com" because of the Legal hassles. Most High profile companies can afford an expensive legal battle ,can you?
Just because http://ReallyGreat.com sold for $Big-bucks , doesn't mean paying $bigBucks for any old name will mean reselling it for an even higher price.
Domain investors attract more than their fair share of Scammers a common one is an email claiming to be someone wishing to buy your name ,all you have to do is use their preferred Appraisal service to confirm the offered price. it is just a ruse to get you to pay an inflated price for this appraisal.