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Global Investment Committee's Outlook: Negative 4Q, then central banks relent and markets rebound
Strong silver lining in 2023, with Japanese equities defying the downturn
by John Vail, Chief Global Strategist
Short but scary global recession
Reflecting back, our mid-June meeting's overall macro theme "Stagflation Lite," which entailed G-3 GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession in the US (but not the Eurozone), coupled with central banks being more hawkish than consensus, seems to have been very predictive. Our "more enthusiastic" stance on global equities (after being unenthusiastic in March), excluding Europe, was initially very correct, but ended mostly disappointing, especially in USD terms. MSCI US ended with only about a 2% total return from our meeting date, after peaking at 17% in mid-August, while Japan and Developed Pacific ex-Japan fell about 6% in USD terms and Europe fell about 10%. Japan actually rose slightly in yen terms, but Europe fell about 3% in euro terms; Meanwhile, our negative stance on global bonds was proven correct in both local currency and USD terms, with the latter falling about 7%, much worse the MSCI World's -1.4% (that peaked at nearly 15%), so our preference for equities over bonds certainly proved predictive.
As for macro and other market reflections, GDP consensus for CY22 is now moderately below what it was in June for the US, while the Eurozone (dubiously so, in our view) and Japan (due to a surprisingly strong CY2Q) are slightly above such. Meanwhile, that for China has fallen sharply, greatly due to lockdowns and the continued multi-faceted problems linked to the declining property market, which had major global effects, particularly on commodities. Lastly, the Ukrainian crisis has clearly hurt the entire global economy and was worse than we predicted. Our bond yield forecasts were too low, and thus the USD appreciated much more than we expected. Our forecast that G-3 central banks would be more hawkish than consensus was accurate, but they, except the BOJ so far, have been even more so than we expected. Our meeting's call for moderately higher commodity prices was incorrect, greatly due to China's lockdowns. Our less cautious stance on geopolitics was also too optimistic, although outside of the Ukraine crisis, "cooler heads" seem to have prevailed.
Looking forward in obviously murky conditions, on 29 September, out of the seven macro-economic scenarios presented, our committee narrowly decided on a scenario of a short but scary global recession. Thus, there is major downside risk for markets and economies in the 4Q, in our view, but followed with major upside as commodity prices fall further and central banks relent. Given this scenario, we expect corporate results and guidance in the upcoming earnings season to be even more cautious, with global demand decelerating while margins are being squeezed by higher labour and other input costs. Supply chain disruptions, though lessening, should continue to burden profitability too. We have said for years that no one should doubt the ability of US corporations, in particular, to boost profits, but the quarters ahead should be especially challenging. Investor sentiment, meanwhile, will likely turn very negative in the 4Q, especially as we expect the Ukraine conflict to cause major economic dislocations, especially for Europe, but to turn the corner in the 1Q. Thus, our fixed income and equity teams delivered targets of very weak global equities in aggregate for the next three months (although we expect Japan to stay positive due to re-opening tourism, low interest rates, low oil prices, low equity valuations and benefitting from the prior, but increasingly stabilised, weak yen), but to regain their losses in the 1Q. We expect stability for global bonds in USD terms in the 4Q followed by a rally in the 1Q. We expect commodity prices to decline in the 4Q, but basically stabilise at those levels in the 1Q and the following quarters.
Our new scenario predicts that globally, GDP will underperform consensus in the 4Q, but outperform in the 1Q, with the US up 0.0% on a Half on Half Seasonally Adjusted Annualised Rate (HoH SAAR, as used in all references below) in the 4Q22-1Q23 period and 1.8% in the 2Q23-3Q23 period (vs. consensus of 1.2% and 1.2%, respectively, as we measure from a few top economists). Eurozone GDP will continue to be hurt the most by the Ukraine crisis, showing -1.4% in the 4Q22-1Q23 period and 1.5% in the 2Q23-3Q23 period (vs. consensus of -0.7% and 1.0%, respectively). Meanwhile, although a slow global economy will be a headwind, Japan's economy should benefit from re-opening and many other factors, growing 0.4% in the 4Q22-1Q23 period and 1.6% in the 2Q23-3Q23 period (vs. consensus of 2.0% and 1.2%, respectively).
On China's economy, we continue to expect that it will be able to wade through its current troubles, although it should continue to be quite rocky at times. The recent lockdowns negatively affected both domestic and global growth, especially when considering supply chain disruptions, but the reverse of such should occur now, especially in the 4Q. Thereafter, however, there remain many problems. We continue to note that major shifts in economic policy often cause problems and the property market's weakness is causing broadly negative effects in both the economy and financial system (which is extremely opaque and complicated, yet crucially important). It seems rather clear that property prices will be very challenged ahead, especially if empty apartments are increasingly sold on the secondary market. The government is aware of these various problems and is reducing regulatory pressure somewhat and trying to patch-up various crisis points, but it will likely maintain the course away from a property-driven nation towards a technology-driven one. Unlike some sceptics, we expect a moderate loosening of zero-covid rules after Xi is re-elected, with an additional push and incentives for immunisation. In sum, we forecast its GDP to grow 5.0% HoH SAAR in the 4Q22-1Q23 period (due to the post-lockdown rebound) and 5.7 in the 2Q23-3Q23 period (vs. consensus of 6.7% and 4.2%, respectively).
For full year 2022 GDP growth, the US, the Eurozone, Japan and China, at 1.5%, 2.8%, 1.5% and 2.5% respectively, should moderately underperform consensus of 1.7%, 3.1%, 1.7% and 3.0%, and one should note that these numbers are boosted by low base effects (especially Europe), so they are weaker than they appear. For 2023, we expect average growth at 0.9%, 0.3%, 1.2% and 4.3% respectively, moderately underperforming consensus of 1.1%, 0.5%, 1.6% and 4.6%. Indeed, this is not a major rebound as the unplanned restructuring of the global economy, with its increasing de-globalisation and the shift to sustainability, particularly in the energy sector, is causing major problems with inefficiencies and productivity. Moreover, one major risk factor is if labour strikes accelerate further globally, especially in Europe, from their present levels. Suffering lower lifestyles for geopolitical reasons may be tolerated more than in the past, but some countries in which socialism is highly prevalent, especially in Europe, will face a populace that will force corporations to share the burden with higher salaries, coupled with various negative government mandates, that will lower their corporate profits. Economic growth is obviously hurt by strikes, as well. However, in our view, once recession hits and commodity prices fall further, hopefully causing consumer prices to fall more broadly, labour will likely become less adversary, which is what central banks desire above all.
Geopolitics will no longer be ignored
Whereas in the past the problems were fleeting, geopolitical risk should now remain something that markets will not ignore. Not only will the Ukraine conflict continue to be a major problem, North Korea, China and the Middle East need watching. On Ukraine, although fighting might lessen ahead, a peace treaty is very unlikely. We expect that grey-zone warfare with Ukrainian forces and with the rest of the world, including hacking, will continue to disrupt markets, economies (especially as Ukraine and Russia are such large commodity producers that affect supply chains and inflation) and investor confidence. Meanwhile, relations between the West and China remain very tense, although neither side seems willing to cross any red lines, while China's support of Russia has the potential to cause major economic disruptions with the West. Increased fears about Taiwan certainly should not be ignored either. Meanwhile, the Middle East remains on tenterhooks, especially whether the Iran deal will be completed, although we believe there is a good chance that it will be after the US elections, as the Iranians seem eager for such, and besides capping Iran's nuclear ambition, the US's overwhelming incentive is to boost Iranian oil output, especially after the petroleum reserves can no longer be tapped.
As for US political risk, the country remains mired in conflict. Social issues will also likely provoke more civil unrest, especially leading up to November's election, after which the outlook points to complete political stalemate. If, as seems likely, the Republicans win one or both houses, investigations into Democrats, including President Biden, will likely prove unsettling. The net result of all of this, should make risk markets and business leaders wary.
Our detailed forecasts:
Central banks: Relent to cutting after mid 1Q
We expect the Fed to hike 125 bps in the 4Q, 25 in the 1Q (in line with consensus), but then cut 50 in the 2Q and 3Q, which is much more dovish than consensus. As for the ECB, we expect it to hike 125 bps in the 4Q, 25 in the 1Q and then cut 50 in the 2Q and 3Q. Meanwhile, the BOJ will only likely tinker with hawkishness in the 4Q, perhaps by making negative rates virtually inapplicable. In sum, this forecast is dovish after January, which should provide major relief for equity and bond markets. Furthermore, central banks will proceed with QT and also reduce their balance sheets by winding down special pandemic-related lending programs.
G-3 bond yields stable 4Q, then decline; USD weakens
For bonds globally, relatively weak economic growth, scary risk markets and the continuing decline in inflation should greatly help, but Fed QT and the absence of ECB purchases (followed by beginning QT in the 2Q), certainly will prove challenging. Central banks are likely expecting that money market and bond fund inflows will surge in the 4Q to provide buying power. Many bond investors, given their disposition, will likely assume that inflation will decelerate further in the intermediate term, and will worry about virus scares, especially disappointing economic data points, geopolitical flare-ups and problems during China's economic transition. For US 10-year Treasuries, our target for end-December is 3.75%, while those for 10-year bunds and 10-year JGBs are 2.15% and 0.25%, respectively, falling (except for JGBs) to 3.50%, 2.00% in March, respectively, and further in the following quarters. Regarding forex, we expect the USD to stabilise at 145 vs. the yen in December and then fall to 140 in March (and further thereafter), with the EUR at 0.97 and 0.98 for those periods.
As a side note, we do not believe the UK's problems will metastasize globally into a loss of confidence in sovereign debt, as its fiscal tax cuts are unique proposals and the method of proposing such was ham-fisted. The BOE will also continue via emergency purchases to quell margin calls on gilt derivatives, allowing this financial excess to be unwound and adjusted to the current rate structure. Also, after further turmoil, we expect the Truss government to greatly relent on tax cuts, especially for the wealthy, and the BOE to perform an outsized hike, but as mentioned previously, we do not think this provides an example for the rest of the world. It is scary enough, however, to keep the pressure on governments not to advocate much further fiscal stimulus, especially if deemed permanent in nature. This is not to say that the UK economy won't suffer in the intermediate term from its major imbalances and decreasing international investor confidence in its path ahead. It is particularly notable that the normal "things will stabilise" response from both UK and global economists and pundits has been reversed into open ridicule of the government and financial system, at least for now. Lastly, its political backdrop will likely get very unruly in the months ahead, as well, with strikes a major concern.
As a side note, one should note that fixed mortgage rates have soared globally, presenting a major headwind to the crucially important (in many ways) residential and commercial property markets. Outside the US, especially in the UK, anyone with a variable mortgage rate will suffer major cost increases that will likely lead to a decent amount of defaults and continually declining home prices. Also, overdue residential rent cases in the US are surging and many will likely leave their current apartments, leaving landlords and any securities based on housing (with a similar situation for commercial properties) vulnerable to shocks.
This all implies that the FTSE WGBI (index of global bonds) should produce in USD terms a -0.9% unannualised return from our base date of 23 September through December but improve to 0.5% at March-end and 9.3% by September. Thus, we are fairly neutral for the next five months, but have a very enthusiastic stance thereafter. For yen-based investors, however, this index in yen terms should return 0.0%, -2.2% and -1.2% through those respective periods, with JGBs returning 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, so offshore bonds should not be preferred to JGBs due to yen strength after year-end.
The Brent oil price will likely decline further, in our view, in the 4Q due to the global recession, but after central banks relent, it should basically stabilise thereafter. Of course, the Iran question looms large, both geopolitically and as regards global oil supply, but we think there is a good chance that a deal will help supply. In sum, we expect Brent to hit USD 80 in December and USD 78 in March and next September.
After another month-on-month surge in the upcoming August core CPI, we expect major moderation, well below consensus, ahead. For the US headline CPI, we expect 3.8% and 2.0% in March and September 2023, respectively, vs. consensus of 5.4% and 2.9%. For the US core CPI, we expect 4.3% and 2.0% for these periods vs. consensus of 5.0% and 3.3%. On a 6-month annualised rate, which the Fed is supposedly carefully watching, core CPI will be 2.0% in March and next September, in our view, and average about 0.17% monthly after October, which should be a long enough streak of low readings by mid 1Q for the Fed to get comfortable, especially if housing rents in the current marketplace decline markedly. Indeed, these rates will undershoot the Fed's target, assuming that the PCE deflators are a bit lower than the CPI. As for the details, housing rent will likely, due to the lagged effect of repricing of new contracts, march upward, though to a lesser degree (and medical costs could also remain sticky), but food, gasoline, airfares, new and used cars, apparel, home furnishings and many services prices should soften soon due to the strong USD and lower recessionary demand. Eurozone and Japanese CPIs should decelerate greatly ahead too.
Global equities sink, ex Japan, in 4Q but rebound nicely thereafter
The MSCI World Index ticked down from our base date through our meeting date this week, vs. our +3% forecast, so we were clearly should have been less unenthusiastic, although we were certainly looking bright after the 15% gain in mid-August. A significant global recession ahead is not the only problem, as it could get especially scary due to credit market conniptions after all the excesses of the past few years. Very few "accidents" have occurred so far, whether in the derivatives markets, leveraged loan syndications, securitized real estate investments, junk-rated firm collapses, personal loan defaults or other aspects, but we expect quite many to appear soon globally. Furthermore ,even among stable firms, we expect corporations globally to report earnings (and guide) negatively during the 3Q season for rather obvious reasons. Geopolitical events could also get scary at times, and hurt market sentiment and proper economic functioning. After the 4Q scare, however, prospects should stabilise with central banks relenting, and then markedly improve, although not to optimistic levels.
In sum, we shift to a negative view on global equities for the 4Q, but are much more positive thereafter. Aggregating our national forecasts from our base date, we forecast that the MSCI World Total Return Index in USD terms will be -10.7% through December, but -0.1% through March and +10.2% by next September (-10.0%, -2.7% and -0.4% in yen terms). In USD terms through December, we expect 12% declines in Europe and US, but for Japan to rise 8% and Hong Kong, after its major 3Q downturn, to rebound 6% based on China's improvement.
In the US, the SPX's PER on its CY22 EPS estimate remains around 16, which is reasonably fair, especially if bond yields stabilise and buybacks remain strong, but earnings reports and guidance ahead will likely be shocking, especially to short-term investors and algorithm models. Credit scares will be numerous too. But we expect after a 12% decline in the 4Q that lower inflation, a more balanced labour market and cooled financial conditions indices will cause the Fed to relent. In sum, we expect the SPX to fall to 3,219 (-12.3% total unannualised total return from our base date) at end-December, but rebound to 3,591 in March and 3,916 at end-September (7.9% return), with yen-based returns of -11.6%, -4.4% and -2.5%, respectively.
European equities in the 3Q finally underperformed the US in USD terms, and fell even more than we expected. The Euro Stoxx PER, at 10.7 times CY22 EPS current estimates is well below its historical average, but as mentioned above, earnings forecasts and investor sentiment, along with the economy, should be quite negative, even as the ECB has to hike to prevent inflation and indirectly, labour strikes. Thus, we expect the Euro Stoxx index to fall to 320 at end-December and FTSE to 6,000, which translates to a total return of -12.5% (unannualised from our base date) for MSCI Europe through then in USD terms. However, we expect improvement thereafter, with a rebound in MSCI Europe's return, at 2.5%, through March and 14.9% through next September, greatly aided by a rebound in the euro. This may sound too optimistic, but actually it leaves the Euro Stoxx index about 7% below its August peak and 20% below its 2021 peak, and at a low PER multiple, although such will likely be justified by the region's loss of competitiveness and productivity due to its forced economic re-jiggering.
Japanese equities since our last meeting fell in USD terms much more than the US, which was highly disappointing. Equities in yen terms were basically flat, but the yen has been quite weak, mostly due to higher US interest rates occurring while the BOJ rightly insisted that sustainable inflation in Japan was not likely yet, and, thus, did not tighten its policies. Given the full re-opening of the economy (and gradual reopening of international tourism) in the 4Q, consumer optimism is rebounding and the auto sector, which is a major portion of the stock market and economy, should rebound. Unfortunately, the tech sector, in particular the electronic components and production equipment for such, in which Japan excels, has entered a downturn, primarily as excess demand during the pandemic is reversed. Corporate earnings have, overall, continued to rebound as the weaker yen heretofore has increased profitability and competitiveness, especially as 3-6 month forex hedges roll off. Meanwhile, Japan has low political risk and structural reform is continuing, especially in digitalization and alternative energy. Japan's low exposure to Russia is fortunate, and fortunately it secured its natural gas supplies from Sakhalin, and the country, will continue to benefit from lower global commodity prices. Global economic recession will definitely hurt, but China, to which Japan is quite highly exposed, should rebound from lockdowns. TOPIX's PER fell to 11.7 times its CY22 EPS consensus estimate, which is very low, especially as CY22 earnings estimates in aggregate should remain firm. Also to support the market are share buybacks that are on a record-breaking pace, and the market's dividend yield, which at 2.6% remains extremely attractive vs. bonds. Thus, we forecast TOPIX at 2,050 at end-December, 2,120 in March and 2,170 next September for total unannualised returns of 7.9% in USD terms (8.7% in yen terms), 16.1% (13.0% in yen terms) and 29.3% (16.9% in yen terms), respectively, from our base date through those periods. As for the Nikkei, it should hit 29,000, 30,000 and 30,700, respectively. These returns are obviously very attractive for both domestic and global investors.
Developed Pacific-ex Japan MSCI: Australia will be hurt by lower commodity prices and weak global economic growth in this scenario, but some of the burden will be alleviated by the rebound in China and after mid-1Q, by central bank cuts and better than expected global growth. China needs increased coal supplies because it is worried about energy costs and is willing to slow its transition to green energy. Hong Kong's stock market, which is dominated by PRC firms, has been extremely weak, but should rebound along with China's prospects and the revival of tourism. A weakened local property market certainly does not help, but easing central bank policy should allow for a rebound in property and equity sentiment in 2023. We expect the region's MSCI index returns in USD terms (total unannualised) at -0.9% through December, +0.7% through March and +12.2% through next September.
Investment strategy concluding view
Our scenario is fairly ugly for the 4Q, but has a strong silver lining thereafter. We are not optimistic about the global economy and investor returns reverting to normal for an extended period, but there should be clear intermediate term relief and pockets of strong outperformance due to idiosyncratic advantages. Notably, Japan should be globally overweighed for both stocks and bonds and Japanese investors should strongly concentrate on the domestic market in the year ahead. Of course, there will be underperformers too, and there is a plethora of risks that must be navigated, some the most challenging in post-War history. Thus, for the 4Q, bonds should outperform struggling equity markets, but we are fairly bullish, for the reasons stated above, thereafter. As always, there remains a significant chance of alternate scenarios, for which we have different market and economic targets, and institutional investors are welcome to contact us for such.
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Alsarah and the Nubatones Bring Sudanese Soul to MASS MoCA
Alsarah
(NORTH ADAMS, Mass.) – Blending 1970s Nubian songs, Western soul, and vintage Sudanese pop, Alsarah and the Nubatones rock Club B-10 at MASS MoCA on Saturday, November 10, 2012, at 8 p.m. Alsarah, a Sudanese-American firecracker, is the leading lady of this extraordinary band bound together by a collective love for Nubian music and the belief that soul transcends all cultural barriers.
Born in Sudan's capital city, Khartoum, Alsarah grew up in Sudan, Yemen, and the Berkshires. After attending the Pioneer Valley Performing Arts Charter High School in Hadley, Mass., she attended Wesleyan University, and now resides in Brooklyn. Alsarah performs music from different parts of the Middle East and East Africa.
Heavily influenced by music from both her native homeland and her adopted ones, Alsarah comes together with her band, the Nubatones, to create music that reflects a journey through diaspora; this is musical migration filtered through an urban lens.
Afropop Worldwide calls the band's sound "a blend of original compositions and traditional pieces, grounded in the Sudanese and Nubian musical traditions but sails in the pocket of funk and soul music." Inspired by the pentatonic scale – the musical mode with five notes per octave as opposed to a heptatonic seven-note scale that much of Western music utilizes – the band brings a fresh perspective to music.
Alsarah and the Nubatones take the stage in MASS MoCA's Club B-10 on Saturday, November 10, at 8 PM. Club B-10 is an intimate, casual venue on the third floor of MASS MoCA. Tickets are $12 in advance or $16 on the day of the show. Student tickets are $10. Members receive a 10% discount on tickets. Tickets are available through the MASS MoCA Box Office, located off Marshall Street in North Adams, from 11 AM until 5 PM (closed Tuesdays). Tickets can also be charged by phone by calling 413.662.2111 during Box Office hours or purchased online at MASS MoCA.
MASS MoCA, the largest center for contemporary visual and performing arts in the United States, is located off Marshall Street in North Adams on a 13-acre campus of renovated 19th-century factory buildings. MASS MoCA is an independent 501(c)(3) whose operations and programming are funded through admissions and commercial lease revenue, corporate and foundation grants, and individual philanthropy. Except for an initial construction grant from the Commonwealth, and competitive program and operations grants from the National Endowment for the Arts and the Massachusetts Cultural Council, MASS MoCA is privately funded: 90% of annual operating revenues are from earned revenues, membership support, and private gifts and grants.
Tags:afropop alsarah and the nubatones MASS MoCA rock
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


For every card that's gained a reputation as being utterly broken, there's a relatively fair way to use it. Lotus Petal is an excellent example: it's pretty ridiculous in storm decks, where you get plus one to your spell count for a cost of, in effect, negative one mana, but merely overpowered in creature decks where it's more like a land that doesn't use up your allotment for the turn. I understand why it has to be banned and restricted in tournament settings, but there are safe ways to introduce it to more casual settings. I'd still probably restrict it in casual constructed, but it can help decks that are genuinely fun, and that's not something that can be said about every tournament card.
The little Tempest common is unlikely to see a reprint anytime soon, no matter its rarity: free mana in this form will break whatever format it's a part of. It's only seen one printing since its original appearance: a From the Vault: Exiled printing, and it's probably not changing anytime soon.


The emergency department at Moses Cone Hospital has been selected to receive the prestigious Lantern Award, making it the only emergency department in North Carolina recognized for excellence by the international Emergency Nurses Association (ENA).
The Lantern Award recognizes exceptional practice and innovative performance in the core areas of leadership, practice, education, advocacy and research. The award honors an emergency department's commitment to quality, safety, presence of a healthy work environment and accomplishment in incorporating evidence-based practice and innovation into exceptional emergency care.
Moses Cone is one of 11 hospitals in the nation to receive Lantern Award recognition for emergency department excellence this year. Recipients will be recognized at ENA's Awards Gala on September 17 in Los Angeles.
"The 2016 Lantern Award recipients have met a rigorous set of standards for excellence," said ENA president Kathleen E. Carlson. "We look for the highest level of performance in emergency departments – emergency departments that go above and beyond to ensure quality safe practice and care for their patients."
The Lantern Award is named in honor of Florence Nightingale, who is credited with changing nursing from an untrained job to a skilled, science-based profession. She is referred to as the "Lady of the Lamp" for her actions during the Crimean War when she worked deep into the night, bringing a lantern with her as she tended to wounded British soldiers as they slept.
"I'm very proud of all the nurses, physicians and staff who contribute directly to the quality of care in the Moses Cone emergency department. They are the true recipients of this national honor," said Misty Freeman, nursing director, Moses Cone Hospital emergency department.


do you mean random direction?
it is not really of use for me, as I still got to program new sequences all the time to have real, fresh, fast randomization.
I don't mean to nitpick - it is really a big difference for me.
it would be great to have a simple, midi-cc-able "randomize" button for the CV Sequencer.
not sure if I should post about my sampler-problems in a separate thread.
What you can do with the MonoNote you can also do with the CV Seqs.
One ButtonBox, 16 Modulation Seqs and one Intervall Seq and go.
Every push of the button a new sequence on the fly!
But be careful every reset of the transport sets everything to zero and the sequence is gone. So the best is to save the Interval Seq each time you like something by dragging the document icon to the desktop.
To make it work do not forget to start Numerology!
here is an example, a Discrete Sequencer Randomized but only the Interval Seq.
The transport has to be started that the RND works and the button has to be pressed twice after start.
ah wow, ha! thanks jue! it works! but wouldn't it be more CPU efficient to use MonoNote then, which has built in randomization? still I learned stuff with your example! thanks!
the big thing here is that you can have the complete random as the example shows on one side and the other is that you are able to select specific notes for each step, means that you could limit the random or give a higher possibility to play notes that are repeated at the modulation seqs. think of 3 times C, 4 times A 1 time D and so on. At the end you could have 16 differend sequences that feed one sequence.
Now think of not triggering the sequences by the RND button, keep them running free at different speeds, time signatures and so on, still feeding one 16 step sequencer.
The Numerology universe calls you!
128 ModulationSeqs are feeding one 128 step IntervallSeq.
Again the Numerology universe calls you!
Crazy I know, but this is why I love this programm!
I think I'll start another thread with my problems with the sampler.
Sb. any thoughts on this, probably jue? Thanks!!


text:
"Nothing feeds the center of being so much as creative work." - Anne Morrow Lindberg
James David Hulse
Photo courtesy of the Jimmy and Carmen Shane.
(September 7, 1876 - April 6, 1937)
DAVE HULSE, HIGHLY RESPECTED CITIZEN FROM NEAR VAN TASSELL, PASSES AWAY IN LUSK TUESDAY
Funeral to Be Held at Van Tassell Friday Afternoon
James David Hulse, well-known farmer and rancher from about eight miles southwest of Van Tassell, died at the Lusk Hospital at 6:00 a.m. Tuesday, April 6th, from a streptococic infection in the left hand which was caused from being pricked by a pin.
Mr. Hulse paid little attention to the apparently small wound at the time, but when his condition became serious he was brought to the hospital here in a futile attempt to save his life, but he was beyond medical aid.
Funeral services will be held from the Congregational Church in Van Tassell Friday afternoon at 2:00 o'clock, the Rev. Cowman officiating. Arrangements are in charge of the Peet Mortuary.
Pallbearers selected are Frank Martin, Andrew McMasters, Harry Burnham, Stanley Frazier, Jeff Boyles and Tom Crelly.
Rev. Cowman will deliver a funeral sermon, taking his text from John 14. Songs selected are "In the Garden," "He Leadeth Me" and "Old Rugged Cross."
Mr. Hulse was born in Tama County, Iowa, on September 7, 1876, and passed away on April 6, 1937, at the age of 60 years and 7 months. He located in Niobrara County on June 19, 1919, having taken a homestead about eight miles southwest of Van Tassell.
He is survived by his widow, Margaret Hulse, and son, Marvin Hulse, and an adopted son, Otis, all of Niobrara County. Surviving brothers are George Hulse and Earl Hulse, both of Niobrara county; two sisters, Mrs. Blanche Lease of Marquette, Iowa, and Mrs. Lou Hammerstrom of Kansas City, Mo.; three nephews and three grandchildren. His mother passed away in 1925 and his father in 1930, both at the family home southwest of Van Tassell.
Sepulture will be in the Van Tassell Cemetery.
Mr. Hulse was a highly respected citizen of the county, and leaves a host of warm personal friends who will regret to learn of his death.
Related Genealogy Entries: 'James David Hulse'
Related Historical Entries: 'James David Hulse'


At the very outset I would like to state that this is my first ASP classic page that I have created which since the first deployment on IIS is giving me server 500 error. I have searched the entire web and have done almost everything possible to get this right, but all in vain.
Created a new Site on IIS named "YCube"
IIS authentication is set to "Anonymous Auth"
On the error pages in IIS, i have changed the "Edit feature settins" to "Detailed error", this also didnot give me any futher error desc.
Here are my system config and other details Windows 7 professional, IIS7.5.7600, MSSQLR2express. Also please note that I have tried hosting this on two othe pc's that I have(both windows 7) and in office server 2003, but all are giving me same server 500 error.
Never thought learning a classic asp will put me into all this Jazz...please help..
2) if you have 64 bit machine need to set your Application pool for 32 bit.
this are default settings which we need to take care.
Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged asp-classic iis-7.5 or ask your own question.


Some snaps from the previous week!
Briony here! I have been thinking that I want to do a post each week to share little bits about my life. The goal is to try and do 52 in the whole year. *starts to have a panic attack* Key word try. I think this would a great way to share little bits about my life and something that I can look back on later. I know I have grown, matured, struggled and changed so much in the previous year. Having this series will allow me to see the changes I have made along with letting you see them too.
I have had most of this week off, thanks to public holidays and taking annual leave. Where I work had been crazy busy leading up to Christmas so I felt I deserved some extra time off. However this week I've mainly been cleaning and trying to de-clutter my life. I am not going to lie, I am a bit of a hoarder and it's something I hate about myself. My biggest struggle is getting rid of something that someone else gave to me as I feel guilty and can't stop thinking about the time or effort someone put in to getting me the item. I am trying to use the mindset that if I am not using it and won't used, it is better off being donated, so someone else can have it.
Another big thing this week is I accidentally ran my car into my fence! Stupid, I know, and all my own fault. I got flustered and when I was reversing my car I was only looking behind. No matter how much experience with driving you have, you can always make mistakes! So please always be alert when driving and never drive when under the influence of alcohol or drugs. #lifelessonswithbriony.
I also had my first Personal Training session in around 2 months. My trainer had gone overseas and got back in early December. This week I finally booked another session in and I'm ready to work hard and get fit for 2016! Motivation come at me, plz... It is amazing how you feel after working out and it is something I hope to remember this year! A goals post coming your way soon!
It wouldn't be the first week of the year if I didn't mention New Years Eve! Mine was pretty chill but I had an awesome night with some of my best gal pals. We went to a party where we got to chill in a kiddie pool, see some up close fireworks and boogie the next away! Also so many photos!!!
Finally on Saturday night I went and got Messina ice cream with another bunch of girlies. After scoffing down our ice cream in a seedy park we decided it would be fun to go and find a pretty look out. We went on a hunt for the Ruckers Hill look out and all I can see is what a let down! The journey was more fun than the destination this time.


FINAL AMENDED OPEN TRIPLES DRAW | Zone 11 (Manning District) Bowling Association Inc.
The draw for the Open Triples has been amended due to a change of dates. Players in this event please note the dates and time of play. The revised draw can be accessed via the link below.


Cadet Kelly is a naughty and clumsy girl, who is forced to join the military at George Washington Military Academy, where her step-father Brigadier General Joe is the chief. Now she has to get used to with the strict rules and does everything to fix the relationship in her broken family.
Stream Cadet Kelly 2002 Online Streaming at M4uFree.


Fire Station #38 is a new LEED Silver 12,100 s.f. replacement fire station with two full apparatus bays and two half bays, capable of supporting 15 firefighters per shift. The facility also includes dispatch rooms; living quarters and kitchen; and a workout room. The new station follows sustainable site practices, such as erosion and sedimentation control, encouraging alternative transportation with bicycle storage and carpooling and electrical connectivity for hybrid/electric vehicles, stormwater management and treatment, light pollution reduction, and reduction of the heat island with reflective roofing and paving. Native, water-efficient landscaping and innovative irrigation limits the use of potable water for the site.


Remaining performances for "Il Trovatore" are November 30th, December 3rd, 6th and 9th. Estimated running time is 2 hours and 40 minutes, including one 25-minute intermission.
"Il Trovatore" is presented at the Lyric Opera House, 20 N. Wacker Drive, Chicago. Best parking option: The Poetry Garage, 201 West Madison, $12 in advance at www.thepoetrygarage.com. Valet parking is also available – $30. Tickets range from $39-$269. FYI (312) 827-5600 or www.lyricopera.org/Trovatore.


Purge Cache for CloudFlare is a simple plugin that uses CloudFlare® API to purge cache of full HTML pages when a new post is made.
This free version is only indended for basic usage. If you want to use it in full capacity, consider buying premium version.
It works by purging front page, post's page, and main RSS feed. This should work for most sites. However, there are of filters, actions, and methods that provide full customizability and extensibility.
Note that this plugin also sets cache to 30 minutes for all frontend pages. This means that if you use default option in CloudFlare, it tells them to revalidate page cache after that time, so it means that cache for any page expires on CloudFlare servers after that time.
You should create new CloudFlare page rules to set proper caching. It is your responsibility to set this properly.
First page rule should exclude certain paths from caching. Recommended value for this is wp-. This excludes admin pages and default .php pages. Example of URL pattern: *example.com/*wp-* This value can also set via filter or via admin in premium version.
This plugin is on GitHub too.
Purge Cache for CloudFlare is in no way affiliated with CloudFlare. It is only using CloudFlare API to purge page cache of certain URLs.
CloudFlare is registered trademark of CloudFlare, Inc.
"Purge Cache for CloudFlare" és programari de codi obert. La següent gent ha contribuït en aquesta extensió.
"Purge Cache for CloudFlare" s'ha traduït a 1 localització. Gràcies als traductos per les seves aportacions.
Tradueix "Purge Cache for CloudFlare" a la teva llengua.


text:
Home / Lysergamide / ALD-52
ALD-52
Buy Clean and pure ALD-52 [>90.0%] direct from our online shop
Shipping to USA, EU, NZ, AU *
*for research purposes only. human consumption is against our terms of service.
ald-52 likely acts as a 5-ht2a partial agonist. the psychedelic effects are believed to come from ald-52's efficacy at the 5-ht2a receptors. however, the role of these interactions and how they result in the psychedelic experience continues to remain elusive.
bulk discount:
1 Gram 10.15
3 Grams 23.00
10 Grams 61.00
25 Grams 139.50
amount Choose an option1 Gram3 Grams5 Grams10 Grams25 Grams50 Grams Clear
ALD-52 quantity
SKU: N/A Category: Lysergamide Tag: Psychedelic Amphetamine
Arylcyclohexylamine
Benzodihydrodifuran
Cathinone
Diarylethylamine
Gabapentinoid
Lysergamide
MDxx
Morphinan
Naphthidate
Phenethylamine
Phenidate
Phenylpiperidine
Purine alkaloid
Thienodiazepine
Tryptamine
Common names ALD-52, 1-Acetyl-LSD, 1A-LSD, 1A-LAD, "Orange Sunshine"
Substitutive name 1-Acetyl-N,N-diethyllysergamide
Systematic name (6aR,9R)-4-Acetyl-N,N-diethyl-7-methyl-4,6,6a,7,8,9-hexahydroindolo-[4,3-fg]-quinoline-9-carboxamide
Psychoactive class Psychedelic
Chemical class Lysergamide
1-acetyl-n,n-diethyllysergamide (also known as ald-52, 1-acetyl-lsd, 1a-lsd, 1a-lad, and mistakenly as orange sunshine) is a lesser-known psychedelic substance of the lysergamide class that produces lsd-like psychedelic effects when administered. it is structurally related to psychedelic lysergamides like lsd and 1p-lsd and is reported to produce largely indistinguishable effects.
ald-52 was originally discovered by albert hofmann in his study of lsd analogs, but it did not enter mainstream awareness until the 1960s western youth counterculture. ald-52 gained public notoriety when it was supposedly distributed as lsd in the 1960s under the now-famous name "orange sunshine." this was later disproven (see section below).
alexander shulgin touches briefly on the subject of ald-52 in the commentary section of lsd-25 in the book tihkal ("tryptamines i have known and loved"). his writings are based on second-hand accounts which state that doses in the 50-175 µg range result in various effects that are not particularly distinct from lsd. his reports indicate that it produces less visual distortion than with lsd as well as less anxiety and tenseness, while also being somewhat less potent than lsd. another report found the two substances to be indistinguishable.
as with lsd itself, ald-52 does not meet the criteria to be considered addictive or toxic by the scientific community. nevertheless, unpredictable adverse reactions such as anxiety, paranoia, delusions and psychosis are always possible, particularly among those who are predisposed to psychiatric disorders. while these negative reactions or "bad trips" can often be attributed to factors like user inexperience or improper preparation of set and setting, they are known to happen spontaneously among even highly experienced users as well. it is highly advised to approach this very potent, long-lasting hallucinogenic substance with the proper amount of preparation, and harm reduction practices if using it.
in 1968 and 1969, a famous batch of lsd known as "orange sunshine" was synthesized by nick sands and tim scully and made widely available in california. this "orange sunshine" was long held by the hippie generation to be ald-52 until 2005, when it was revealed by nick sands that "orange sunshine" was just a particularly well made batch of lsd dosed at 300 micrograms per unit. this was confirmed by tim scully in a 2017 reddit ama, where scully explained that the claim that "orange sunshine" was technically not lsd arose from an "ill-advised desperate defense strategy that failed miserably" during his trial for lsd manufacture.
ald-52, or 1-acetyl-n,n-diethyllysergamide, is a semisynthethic molecule of the lysergamide chemical class. ald-52 is a substituted derivative of lysergic acid. ald-52's structure contains four rings, a bicyclic hexahydroindole fused to a bicyclic quinoline group. this core structure of ald-52 is an ergoline derivative, and has tryptamine and phenethylamine structures embedded within it. ald-52 contains a n,n-diethylcarboxamide functional group bound to r8 of the chemical structure. it is additionally substituted at carbon 6 with a methyl group.
ald-52 is homologous to 1p-lsd, which contains a propionyl group bound to ch3co- instead of the acetyl group bound to the same location. it is unknown how these differences account for differences in the two compound's activity.
ald-52, alongside with 1p-lsd, is believed to act as a prodrug to lsd, though it is unclear as to whether it is capable of exerting its own effects.
1 Gram, 3 Grams, 5 Grams, 10 Grams, 25 Grams, 50 Grams
ALD-52, 1-Acetyl-LSD, 1A-LSD, 1A-LAD, "Orange Sunshine"
Substitutive name
1-Acetyl-N,N-diethyllysergamide
(6aR,9R)-4-Acetyl-N,N-diethyl-7-methyl-4,6,6a,7,8,9-hexahydroindolo-[4,3-fg]-quinoline-9-carboxamide
Psychoactive class
2 reviews for ALD-52
SeverinusT. – September 19, 2019
Geerten – September 22, 2019
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Your personal data will be used to support your experience throughout this website, to manage access to your account, and that is about it. We hate spam as much as you do so we do not send newsletters and other crap! :) privacy policy.


New Jersey is an at-will state in regard to employment. That means that employees or employers may terminate a working relationship at any time for almost any reason. However, when a discharge violates employment law, then it is considered wrongful termination.
If you believe that you have been wrongfully terminated, it is important to consult with a strong trial lawyer who will tirelessly advocate on your behalf. If you are in Bergen County or elsewhere in New Jersey, I invite you to contact me, Stephen Roger Bosin, Esq.
An employer does not have to fire an employee unlawfully to have committed wrongful termination. A discharge from employment can be considered wrongful termination if the employer has created a hostile working environment that would cause any reasonable person to resign.
There are numerous protections in place for workers set by state and federal statute. I know the law, and I will help you stand up for your rights in and out of the courtroom.
If you have been treated so poorly that you were forced to quit or if you were terminated for reasons that include filing a harassment or discrimination claim, please contact me by calling 866-476-4104. I regularly represent the interests of employees who have been poorly and unlawfully treated.


text:
Melvin and Leona Lazar
The Lazars' commitment to Baruch stems from a lifelong connection to the College. The Brooklyn high school students were accepted at Baruch College in 1956. The two met in Management 103. Shortly after, they married, and both finished their Baruch degrees as evening students. Lee entered Baruch as an accounting major, but later switched to education. Mel was a raucous accounting major who was shaped into a star graduate by his professor, John J. W. Neuner. His example inspired Mel to become a mentor to today's students. Lee became a high school teacher of business subjects, and while raising their three children used her education and entrepreneurial skills to run her own successful business. Mel founded Lazar, Levine & Felix, LLP in 1968 after having become a CPA in 1964. As managing partner, he specialized in business valuations and merger and acquisitions activities. Lazar, Levine & Felix, LLP is a leading professional accounting and consulting firm serving individuals, attorneys and law firms, public corporations and private companies. Lazar, Levine & Felix, LLP has been consistently ranked in the top tier of the largest auditors of publicly held companies in the United States.
Scholarships associated with Melvin and Leona Lazar
Melvin F. Lazar and Leona Weiss Lazar Scholarship


It's not unusual to hear students asking the question, "Can you proofread my essay?" or "Can you review my essay?" especially after writing because they want to know whether they have made mistakes and want to correct them fast. This means that they are interested in improving their paper which is important if they want to increase their standing in class. If you are feeling the same way as these students you should start looking for a proofreading company that can deliver quality results.
Who Can Proofread My Essay?
There is no shortage of essay review services today but you will still need to be careful in choosing one to hire because not all of them can give you the best outcome. What you need to look for is a proofreading company that is trusted by its clients and can guarantee good results. This is what we are offering to students who need someone to proofread their essays professionally. Our proofreaders are among the best today and with their help you can rest easy knowing that your paper will be checked thoroughly.
If you need to have your essay proofread as quickly as possible then we are at your service. We are confident that we will be able to perform our services efficiently no matter how fast you need it done. We can also provide you with our essay editing services if you wish to improve your paper even more. Our proofreaders and editors always work side by side to ensure that all orders that come our way will be handled expertly. We are confident that we will be able to meet your needs and more and the best part is that you will get big savings with us because of our cheap rates.
If you are still asking the question, "Can you proofread my essay?" then you should come to us because we have the best people working for us who will take care of your essay for you. All that you have to do is send your order to us and we'll make sure that the outcome will be to your liking.
Hire us today and have your essay be proofread only by the experts!


text:
The fuseelements/dev-golang Docker image layers `vim` on top of the [official Go wheezy image](https://registry.hub.docker.com/_/golang/) and adds the following plugins:

- [airline](https://github.com/bling/vim-airline)
- [colors-solarized](https://github.com/altercation/vim-colors-solarized)
- [dispatch](https://github.com/tpope/vim-dispatch)
- [easymotion](https://github.com/Lokaltog/vim-easymotion)
- [fugitive](https://github.com/tpope/vim-fugitive)
- [gitgutter](https://github.com/airblade/vim-gitgutter)
- [go](https://github.com/fatih/vim-go)
- [incsearch.vim](https://github.com/haya14busa/incsearch.vim)
- [markdown](https://github.com/tpope/vim-markdown)
- [neocomplete](https://github.com/Shougo/neocomplete.vim)
- [nerdcommmenter](https://github.com/scrooloose/nerdcommenter)
- [nerdtree](https://github.com/scrooloose/nerdtree)
- [syntastic](https://github.com/scrooloose/syntastic)
- [tagbar](https://github.com/majutsushi/tagbar)
- [ultisnips](https://github.com/SirVer/ultisnips)
- [unite](https://github.com/Shougo/unite.vim)
- [vimproc](https://github.com/Shougo/vimproc.vim)

## Usage

Run this image while mounting your go workspace. The default command is a `bash` shell. Edit your code using `vim`, test with `go test`, and compile using `go build`.

```
docker run -it --rm --volume=$(pwd):/go fuseelements/dev-golang
```

### Set your git user name and email

You can configure your git user name and email values when first launching the
container using:

```
git config --global user.name "Jon Buffington"
git config --global user.email "will@i.am"
```

## Inspiration

- [Ten Docker Tips And Tricks That Will Make You Sing A Whale Song Of Joy](http://blog.docker.com/2014/07/10-docker-tips-and-tricks-that-will-make-you-sing-a-whale-song-of-joy/)
- [shykes/devbox](https://github.com/shykes/devbox)
- [mbrt/go-docker-dev](https://github.com/mbrt/go-docker-dev)

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


"I wanted the clothes to feel like they stood right at the meeting point of old and new," said Kaelen Haworth at a studio preview of her new Spring collection, which fused traditional menswear-inspired patterns like houndstooth, herringbone, and glen plaid with the designer's downtown sensibility. Haworth gave classic Prince of Wales checks a modern update by splashing them like paint dripping across sporty neoprene separates. She also showed scratchy tweed in decidedly unstuffy ways—on a swingy coat and a cutout-shoulder crop top that had shorn-off, frayed edges—"almost as though they were breaking at the seams." Speaking of seams, Haworth put more of a focus on sharp tailoring than usual. It was apparent in boxy jackets and trenches with double lapels and just the right amount of slouch, as well as a slim, color-blocked sheath dress boasting an exaggerated collar and strong shoulders.


The Off-Road Business Association (ORBA) is working with the University of Nevada Reno on an exciting and important project for the OHV Community. ORBA was recently awarded a grant from the Nevada Commission on Off-Highway Vehicles to conduct an Economic Impact Study on OHV recreation in Nevada that includes all forms of motorized use; UTV, ATV, 4WD, dirt bike, and snowmobile. The primary purpose of the study is to convey the financial impact to the local, regional and state economy in a concise and factual format. This ultimately translates into policy and decision making that is favorable for future planning and investment into infrastructure and access for motorized use.
We are looking to capture spending habits, where people are traveling from, and the type of activity that motorized enthusiasts are participating in. This survey is focusing on participants that have traveled to Nevada (or are currently Nevada Residents) to recreate.
ORBA sincerely appreciates your cooperation and help in reaching as many enthusiasts as possible. Our objective is to promote advocacy for sustainable access and ensure that public and private lands remain open for motorized recreation for future generations.


text:
Q: Rust zero copy lifetime handling I'm trying to implement a zero copy mechanism for realtime data processing in Rust.
To illustrate my issue, I prepared the following example:
use std::io;

pub trait Producer<T> {
    fn produce(&self) -> Result<T, ()>;
}

pub trait Consumer<T> {
    fn consume(&self, t: T);
}

pub trait Source<T> : Producer<T> {
    fn push(&self, t: T) -> io::Result<()>;
}

pub trait Sink<T> : Consumer<T> {
    fn pull(&self) -> io::Result<T>;
}

pub struct SyncSource<T> {
    pub producer: Option<Box<dyn Fn() -> T>>,
}

impl<T> SyncSource<T> {
    pub fn new() -> SyncSource<T> {
        SyncSource {
            producer: None,
        }
    }
}

impl<T> Producer<T> for SyncSource<T> {
    fn produce(&self) -> Result<T, ()> {
        match &self.producer {
            Some(func) => Ok((*(func))()),
            None => Err(()),
        }
    }
}

impl<T> Source<T> for SyncSource<T> {
    fn push(&self, t: T) -> io::Result<()> {
        // do something useful
        Ok(())
    }
}

pub struct Frame<'a> {
    pub buf: &'a [u8],
}

pub struct Capture {
    buf: Vec<u8>,
}

impl Capture {
    pub fn add(&mut self, val: u8) {
        self.buf.push(val);
    }

    pub fn read(&self) -> Frame {
        Frame {
            buf: &self.buf[..],
        }
    }
}

fn main() {
    let mut capture = Capture {
        buf: Vec::new(),
    };

    let source: SyncSource<Frame> = SyncSource::new();

    // immutable borrow of 'capture'
    let frame = capture.read();

    source.push(frame);

    // mutable borrow of 'capture'
    capture.add(1); // ERROR
}

.. which of course yields a borrow checker error:
error[E0502]: cannot borrow `capture` as mutable because it is also borrowed as immutable
   --> src/bin/so.rs:212:5
    |
208 |     let frame = capture.read();
    |                 ------- immutable borrow occurs here
...
212 |     capture.add(1);
    |     ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ mutable borrow occurs here
213 | }
    | - immutable borrow might be used here, when `source` is dropped and runs the destructor for type `SyncSource<'_, Frame<'_>>`

I understand that push(frame) cannot have an immutable reference in the same scope where capture.add(1) needs the mutable reference a few lines later.
What I'm trying to achieve is for push(frame) to be able to do something useful with the slice (and maybe copy it into a Vec if necessary), but with the possibility not to do anything with it.
Basically I need to ensure the lifetime of frame ends once push(frame) has been called. This would then release the borrowed reference to Capture and the capture.add(1) call would succeed with a proper mutable reference being acquired.
My zero-copy requirement mandates not copying the slice into a Vec and then handing that new buffer to push(..).
What am I missing here? Perhaps some explicit lifetime annotations?

A: How to fix it
Create a new block to ensure that the immutable borrow (source) is dropped before capture is mutated:
Playground
let mut capture = Capture {
    buf: Vec::new(),
};

{
    let source: SyncSource<Frame> = SyncSource::new();

    // immutable borrow of 'capture'
    let frame = capture.read();

    // borrow moved into `source`
    source.push(frame);

    // `source` dropped here
}

// mutable borrow of 'capture'
capture.add(1);

Why NLL doesn't help
This problem should be fixed with non-lexical lifetimes (NLL). However, NLL don't work for types that implement the Drop trait, because Drop is always called at the end of a value's lexical scope for backwards compatibility.
Since SyncSource contains a trait object (dyn Fn() -> T), which could potentially implement Drop, NLL is prevented in this case. In this playground you can see that removing the trait object fixes the error thanks to NLL.
But I want to access both source and capture in a loop!
Then mutable and immutable borrows are interleaved, which means that Rust can't verify the ownership rules at compile time.
You can work around this by using RefCell, which ensures that the ownership rules are upheld at runtime. This can be  implemented like this:
use std::cell::{RefCell, Ref};

pub struct Frame<'a> {
    pub buf: Ref<'a, Vec<u8>>,
}

pub struct Capture {
    buf: RefCell<Vec<u8>>,
}

impl Capture {
    pub fn add(&self, val: u8) {
        self.buf.borrow_mut().push(val);
    }

    pub fn read(&self) -> Frame {
        Frame {
            buf: self.buf.borrow(),
        }
    }
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


The consolidation within the European PCB industry started well before the onset of the current financial and economic crisis. In 2008, there were only 8 European companies that reported a turnover of more than €50 million.
Not surprisingly, the overwhelming majority of these companies are located in German-speaking countries. As the PCB industry is directly affected by the market downturn within the Automotive sector (e.g.), we will see a different picture in the 2009 analysis.


Chiropractors Worldwide Are Attracting 20 to 40+ New Patients In 1 Hour With The Profession's Most Easy To Use, Turn-Key, "Ultimate Dinner Workshop". Created By Three 7-Figure Chiropractors!
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California Tacos is the perfect venue to host your private event. Due to our small space, parties must reserve the entire restaurant for your event. Please inquire for specific dining, menu and pricing options.


It appears that 2.0 keys do not work on 2.0.1 on Debian 3.1 Is this a known issue or do we need a new key generated?
This fails on a generic barebones debian system due to a required undocumented shared library. ./start /var/pbx/pbxctrl: error while loading shared libraries: libstdc++.so.6: cannot open shared object file: No such file or directory Can we get a version that does not require shared libraries?


text:
Report: ICOs Raised $118 Million in Q1 2019, Over 58 Times Less Than in Q1 2018
About $118 million has been raised via initial coin offerings (ICOs) in Q1 of 2019, over 58 times less than $6.9 billion, the amount raised during the same period in 2018, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reports on March 31.
The report cites data provided by ICO analytics website TokenData. The WSJ argues that investors have been scared off by regulators' actions against non-compliant ICOs, as well as by the general bear market over the past year.
One of the latest cases happened in February, when the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) charged crypto firm Gladius Network with selling unregistered securities after the company self-reported to the commission.
Last month, founding partner of Future Perfect Ventures, Jalak Jobanputra, claimed that venture capital valuations have also been deeply affected by the cryptocurrency bear market.
The recent report also reveals that of the 2,500 projects that TokenData tracked since 2017, purportedly only 45 percent successfully raised money.
Furthermore, WSJ also cites TokenData as saying that only 15 percent of tokens issued in successful ICOs are trading at or above their original price.
The article cited attorney and consultant Joshua Ashley Klayman as stating that ICOs themselves may disappear, but the market for digital securities won't. Recently, so-called security token offerings (STOs) have received increased attention from both the private sector and government regulators globally.
In the U.S. context, investors are faced with a patchwork regulatory landscape when it comes to tokens sales. In February, the state of Wyoming passed a blockchain tokenization-related bill, while a similar law was passed in Delaware in September 2017.
This week, Cointelegraph reported that the owner of a startup that ended up canceling its ICO was trying to sell the company on eBay for $60,000. The startup, named "Sponsy," is described as a blockchain project that is fully prepared to launch both an ICO and an STO.
Filed Under: Analysis, ICO, News, Opinion
AllCrypto


text:
Home » Headlines » Science » Total solar eclipse was last seen all over the U.S. almost a century ago
Total solar eclipse was last seen all over the U.S. almost a century ago
By Adriana Bello / Sunday, 13 Aug 2017 05:31PM
A solar eclipse will be seen throughout the United States on August 21, and eclipse chasers around the world are preparing for the almost once-in-a-lifetime event. The last time a solar eclipse was seen from coast to coast was in 1918.
An eclipse is the alignment of the Earth, the Sun, and the Moon. It occurs around every 18 months or so when the Moon passes directly between the Earth and the Sun on its orbit around the world. When the three bodies line up perfectly, the Moon covers up the disc of the Sun, and people in the direct path of the Moon's shadow will see the Sun go dark.
Image credit: National Geographic
Even though solar eclipses occur every 18 months, this is the first time in 99 years that the event will be seen from coast to coast in the U.S.
The Moon will completely cover up the Sun this month
An eclipse is a special event because the Moon appears to cover the Sun. However, is a matter of perspective, as the Sun is roughly 400 times the size of the Moon.
"The Moon is small compared to the Sun, but it's much closer, so we're at a unique point where the Moon can perfectly cover the disc of the Sun," Noah Petro, a planetary geologist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, told The Verge.
Not all eclipses are the same, as sometimes the Sun is completely covered (called a total eclipse), while sometimes the Moon only partially covers the Sun (a partial eclipse).
This total eclipse will be seen everywhere in the U.S., although it will look clearer depending on the place where you are. NASA published a map where the path of totality will be seen. The path of totality is about 70 miles wide –from Oregon to South Carolina– and it's the area where the Moon's shadow will track across Earth's surface, which is the result of the Moon moving in its orbit and the planet rotating. Anyone in the path of totality will be able to see the Sun completely covered up for a short period.
Solar filter sunglasses are only ones that work to see the eclipse
The eclipse will begin in the middle of the Pacific Ocean at 11:46 A.M ET. In the continental U.S., it will be seen on the coast of Oregon around 12:05 P.M ET. The shadow will travel across the path of totality at 1,500 miles per hour, and it will finish its trip through the U.S. at 4:06 P.M ET, when it stops being seen at the coast of South Carolina.
It's necessary to have a pair of solar filter sunglasses to look at the eclipse, as staring at the Sun is bad. Solar filter sunglasses block more than 99.99 percent of sunlight, ultraviolet, and infrared radiation. NASA and the American Astronomical Society have listed manufacturers who make safe glasses for viewing the Sun.
Image credit: RMSC
NASA says the only time the Sun can be watched with the naked eye is during a total eclipse when the Moon is completely covering it. However, it's important not to see the Sun the moments before it is completely covered because sunlight can still cause severe damages to the eyes, such as retinal burn.
"Until that point, the Moon completely blocks out the Sun, just a little bit of sunlight is still dangerous to your eyes," Petro told The Verge.
NASA also said it's possible that smartphone cameras with small lenses could be damaged by the Sun. If you're worried about your camera, experts recommend you put your solar filter glasses over the lens and take pictures of the solar eclipse like that.
Total solar eclipse will be seen on August 21
Scientists have perfected the science to predict solar eclipses. Better technologies and fancy equipment have aided astronomers to predict these events correctly. However, it was not always the case. Thousands of years ago, astronomers were beheaded if they failed to predict when one of these events would occur.
For instance, in 2134 BC, a total eclipse occurred over China, but Emperor Chung K'ang said that "the Sun and Moon did not meet harmoniously." That mistake caused the beheading of two court astronomers, called Hsi and Ho, who failed to predict the eclipse.
Scientists and astronomers have far better resources now than they did thousands of years ago, and a NASA astronomer said it had been a gradual improvement.
"It has been centuries of gradual improvement that just piled up over time," former NASA astronomer Fred Espenak told BuzzFeed News. "The floodgates really opened when digital computers came online."
The total solar eclipse will be seen on August 21. If you're not in the path of totality, you can see the total solar eclipse in a live stream from NASA, as it will be broadcasted on NASA TV for about 4 hours.
Source: The Verge
Google employee's manifesto has put diversity into question in Silicon Valley
Hawaii's first marijuana dispensary suspends sales due to administrative bottleneck


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Vincent Korda (22 June 1897 – 4 January 1979) was a Hungarian-born art director, later settling in Britain. Born in Túrkeve in what was then the Austro-Hungarian Empire, he was the younger brother of Alexander and Zoltan Korda. He was nominated for four Academy Awards, winning once. He died in London, England. He is the father of writer and editor Michael Korda, and the grandfather of Chris Korda.

Academy Awards
Korda won an Academy Award for Best Art Direction and was nominated for three more:

Won
 The Thief of Bagdad (1940)

Nominated
 That Hamilton Woman (1941)
 Jungle Book (1942)
 The Longest Day (1962)

Filmography

 Marius (1931)
 Longing for the Sea (1931)
 Men of Tomorrow (1932)
 Wedding Rehearsal (1932)
 The Girl from Maxim's (1933)
 The Private Life of Henry VIII (1933)
 The Rise of Catherine the Great (1934)
 The Private Life of Don Juan (1934)
 The Scarlet Pimpernel (1934)
 The Ghost Goes West (1935)
 Moscow Nights (1935)
 Things to Come (1936)
 The Man Who Could Work Miracles (1936)
 Rembrandt (1936)
 Men Are Not Gods (1936)
 Paradise for Two (1937)
 Action for Slander (1937)
 The Squeaker (1937)
 The Drum (1938)
 Prison Without Bars (1938)
 The Challenge (1938)
 Over the Moon (1939)
 The Spy in Black (1939)
 The Four Feathers (1939)
 The Lion Has Wings (1939)
 Q Planes (1939)
 The Thief of Bagdad (1940)
 21 Days (1940)
 Major Barbara (1941)
 Old Bill and Son (1941)
 That Hamilton Woman (1941)
 Lydia (1941)
 To Be or Not to Be (1942)
 The Jungle Book (1942)
 Perfect Strangers (1945)
 An Ideal Husband (1947)
 The Fallen Idol (1948)
 Bonnie Prince Charlie (1948)
 The Third Man (1949)
 Outcast of the Islands (1951)
 Home at Seven (1952)
 The Sound Barrier (1952)
 The Holly and the Ivy (1952)
 Malaga (1954)
 Summertime (1955)
 Storm Over the Nile (1955)
 The Deep Blue Sea (1955)
 Holiday in Spain (1960)
 The Longest Day (1962)
 The Yellow Rolls-Royce (1964)

References

External links

1897 births
1979 deaths
Best Art Direction Academy Award winners
British art directors
British people of Hungarian-Jewish descent
Hungarian art directors
Hungarian emigrants to the United Kingdom
Hungarian Jews
People from Túrkeve

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


text:
Alabama Life & Culture
Horror movies streaming: The best Halloween flicks you can watch on Netflix, Hulu, more
Updated: Oct. 05, 2021, 8:06 a.m. | Published: Oct. 05, 2021, 8:00 a.m.
By Ben Flanagan | bflanagan@al.com
If you need a fright or two in the nights leading up to Halloween, several streaming services have you covered.
We found the best horror flicks and shows you can watch right now on Amazon, Disney+, HBO Max, Hulu, Netflix and Peacock TV.
Read through our comprehensive spooky season streaming guide. And remember: Watch at your own risk...
RELATED: 21 haunted houses in Alabama that will make you scream in 2021
A limited but nice blend of '80s cult favorites ("C.H.U.D."), '90s slasher revival ("I Know What You Did Last Summer") and modern classics ("Midsommar").
Guaranteed Frights: The Descent, Hellraiser, Midsommar
Arachnophobia
C.H.U.D.
Creepshow 2
Dead Ringers
House (1986)
House on Haunted Hill (1958)
I Still Know What You Did Last Summer
The Lords of Salem
The Monster Squad
The Thing (2011)
The Wicker Man (1975)
When a Stranger Calls (1979)
Disney has the golden goose for family Halloween flicks in "Hocus Pocus," with a handful of other childhood favorites, plus TV specials like the "Treehouse of Horror" series from "The Simpsons."
Guaranteed Frights: Frankenweenie, Hocus Pocus, Mr. Boogedy
The Adventures of Ichabod and Mr. Toad
Halloweentown (and sequel)
Mr. Boogedy
Solid selection here blending A-list classics ("The Shining") with frightening franchises ("Nightmare on Elm Street"). You also get some old school picks like "The Blob" and "Eyes Without a Face." Don't forget about the creepy original series like "True Blood" and "The Outsider" if you need a binge.
Guaranteed Frights: Evil Dead 2, Poltergeist, The Shining
The Blob
The Brood
Critters (and 3 & 4)
Dracula A.D. 1972
Dracula Has Risen from the Grave
Evil Dead 2
Exorcist 2: The Heretic
Eyes without a Face
The Gallows
Ghoulies (and II)
Gothika
Haxan
Nightmare on Elm Street collection
Stephen King's Cat's Eye
Stephen King's It
Thirteen Ghosts
Vampyr
Decent grouping of modern thrillers like "Unsane" and "You're Next," plus beloved TV like "Buffy the Vampire Slayer," "American Horror Story" and "Twin Peaks."
Guaranteed Frights: Black Swan, The Host, Twin Peaks
30 Days of Night
The Addams Family (animated)
Blippi's Spooky Spells Halloween
Double, Double Toil and Trouble
Exorcist: The Beginning
Friday the 13th, Part III
Friday the 13th: The Final Chapter
Queen of the Damned
What We Do in th Shadows (FX show)
Several Netflix originals like the brand new "Fear Street" trilogy and Mike Flanagan's "Haunting" series, plus some sillier seasonal choices like "Little Evil" and Adam Sandler's "Hubie Halloween."
Guaranteed Frights: The Conjuring, The Haunting of Hill House, Unfriended
Ash vs. the Evil Dead
The Babysitter
Creep 2
Fear Street trilogy
Green Inferno
Little Evil
Pet Sematary Two
The Strangers Prey at Night
The fewest high quality options of the bunch, buoyed by John Krasinski and Emily Blunt's "Quiet Place" movies. But scour the selection and try to find some hidden gems.
Guaranteed Frights: mother!, Night of the Living Dead, A Quiet Place
Child's Play (remake)
Friday the 13th, Part 3
A Quiet Place, Part II
The Town That Dreaded Sundown
Vampire in Brooklyn
PEACOCK TV
Pound for pound, Peacock might have the best overall horror selection in 2021. From classics like "Dracula" and "The Bride of Frankenstein" to franchise collections including "Friday the 13th," "Nightmare on Elm Street" and "Saw," you won't run out of solid options between now and Oct. 31.
Guaranteed Frights: Day of the Dead, The House of the Devil, The Sixth Sense
Bad Moon (1996)
The Blob (1988)
Body Bags (1993)
Boo 2! A Madea Halloween
The Bride of Frankenstein (1935)
The Cabin in the Woods
Cat People (1982)
Child's Play 3 1991)
Creature from the Black Lagoon (1954)
The Crush (1994)
The Exorcist III
The Fourth Kind
Friday the 13th (1980)
Friday the 13th, Part V: A New Beginning
Friday the 13th, Part VI: Jason Lives
Friday the 13th, Part VII: The New Blood
Friday the 13th, Part VIII: Jason Takes Manhattan
The Funhouse
The House of the Devil
The Innkeepers
The Invisible Man (1933)
The Invisible Woman (1941)
It Came from Outer Space
Jason X
Leprechaun (and sequels)
Night of the Living Dead (1968)
A Nightmare on Elm Street (2010
A Nightmare on Elm Street 5: The Dream Child
The People Under the Stairs
Psycho II
Psycho III
Psycho IV: The Beginning
The Raven (1935)
Saw: The Final Chapter
Serial Mom (1994)
Son of Dracula (1943)
The Stepfather (1987)
The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, Part 2 (1986)
Village of the Damned (1995)
Werewolf of London (1935)
The Wolfman (2010)


text:
https://en.irefeurope.org/1244
( Globalization & Public spending )
reading time : 3 min
Securing the Northern Irish Economy post-Brexit
Northern Ireland has been in a precarious political situation ever since the partition of Ireland in the 1920's. Years of political instability, paramilitary warfare, and social divides have left the region uniquely sensitive to social and political change. Following the end of the Troubles in 1998, however, the area finally achieved relative piece.
With Brexit on the horizon, many of the foundations of the Good Friday Agreement (GFA), such as free movement and access to Irish citizenship for the Northern Irish have been put at risk. Furthermore, the GFA ruled that no one party would fight for total control of the Northern Irish assembly at Stormont, in order to ensure that neither side could politically dominate. The coalition between the governing Conservative party and the hardline unionist DUP in Westminster thus undermines this key precedent, and uncertainty over Northern Ireland's post-Brexit future presents risks not just for renewed conflict in Northern Ireland, but for the Republic of Ireland and the United Kingdom as well.
Northern Ireland is of paramount importance to ensuring a pragmatic Brexit outcome for all countries of the UK. If handled poorly, the region may erupt and damage Britain and Ireland's chances of stability and growth post-Brexit.
The Troubles in Northern Ireland of the 1960's through to the 1990's significantly hindered economic growth in the region. Since the per-capita GDP was damaged by the conflict, Northern Ireland received subventions from the British government in order to keep the economy afloat. A 2013 paper by Richard Dorsett in the European Journal of Political Economy estimates that per-capita GDP decreased by only 10% as a result of the 30-year conflict, as opposed to as much as 20% without subvention.
The paper provides a graph showing the Northern Irish GDP percentage changes from 1970 until 2010, as well as the estimated GDP had Northern Ireland not received subventions from the UK government. The 'placebo' line represents the GDP change of Scotland (an economy similar to Northern Ireland that has not received the same type of subventions) over the same time period, and is included to ensure statistical significance. One can observe that the subventions did indeed prevent the Northern Irish GDP from ever dropping further than 10% below 0, as opposed to a low point of around 17% without subventions.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2012.10.003
However, this aid from Britain likely brought with it just as many issues as it solved. Billions of Pounds had to be provided in order to keep the economy stable (that is to say, to avoid too far a fall in GDP). Artificially pumping this amount of money into an economy comes with particularly adverse effects; competition in Northern Ireland stagnated as a result, and much of the Northern Irish economy has remained centred around the public sectoralmost 20 years later. The Northern Irish economy thus remains dependent, glacial, and in dire need of liberalisation.
Since 87% of Northern Irish farms receive their income from the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the agricultural sector of the region may be moving in the right direction following the severance of the CAP subsidy post-Brexit. Thus, Brexit could actually boost agricultural growth and innovation in the region.
Unfortunately, few other outcomes for Brexit look quite this appealing. Over half (56%) of Northern Irish exports go to the EU, mainly to the Republic of Ireland. Although the threat of a hard-border in Ireland has been defused, Northern Ireland stands to lose far more from any new barriers to trade than Great Britain itself.
Best Course of Action - ná bain dó?
Current prospects for economic growth in Northern Ireland are hardly exciting. Northern Irish public spending is some of the highest in the UK, while tax revenue is relatively low. This has, of course, resulted in Northern Ireland having a far higher level of public debt than the rest of the UK. This is because taxes levied in Northern Ireland, which are paid directly to the British government in London, are considerably lower than government spending in the area. As such, Northern Ireland represents an economic burden to the rest of the UK as it stands.
Thus, two major issues can be identified within the Northern Irish economy; subventions from the UK government and high state spending have arguably prevented Northern Ireland from achieving stable growth - both issues stemming from a dependence on the state. Less state intervention and regulation may therefore represent the best remedy for Ulster's economic woes. The agreementbetween the UK and the EU not to install any new regulatory barriers (meaning that trade relations between Northern Ireland and the ROI should remain relatively untouched) is a good start, it is vital that Brexit does not exacerbate Northern Ireland's existing problem with low trade.
In any case, attempts to secure Northern Ireland's economic future through more state intervention are unlikely to yield stable, long-term results. As a country caught between a rock and a hard place, trade liberalisation could be the only way out for Northern Ireland.
The Need for Devolution to Address the UK's Transport Sector Crisis
Aging Populations and the Size of Government
by Ryan H. Murphy and Meg Tuszynski
Populinomics Italian Style


Though "Smash" may have bit the dust on NBC this year, its showrunner, Joshua Safran, has already lined up projects at both Fox and ABC.
"Royal," set at Fox, is billed as a soap about a Kate Middleton-type caught having an affair. The lead is thrown out of the royal family and forced to take the only job she can get, working as an assistant to temperamental and drug-addicted designer Thomas King. Project was sold through 20th Century Fox TV and will be produced by Chernin Entertainment.
"Social Circle" lands at ABC through ABC Studios, with Fake Empire producing. The thriller, about the nature of friendship in the age of incessant texting, tweets and Instagrammed photos, centers on a group of twentysomethings who discovery they really don't know each other at all.
"Social Circle" marks a reunion for Safran and fellow "Gossip Girl" alum Stephanie Savage.
Safran is repped by UTA.