text:
How policy uncertainty hurt world trade in 2019
Cristina Constantinescu, Michele Ruta, Aaditya Mattoo 23 December 2019
Cristina Constantinescu, Michele Ruta and Aaditya Mattoo suggest policy uncertainty might account for almost half of the slowdown of world trade growth in 2019.
First posted on:
The Trade Post World Bank blog, 14 November 2019
In a decade of miserable trade growth, 2019 is set to make the record books for all the wrong reasons. Since the Great Recession, trade growth hovered around 3% per year, down from the 7% growth rates for the two decades preceding the crisis. This year world trade is expected to grow slightly above 1%. We find that policy uncertainty might account for almost half of the slowdown of world trade growth in 2019.
A growing body of work analyses the determinants of the slowdown in global trade. Research at the World Bank and elsewhere previously attributed the slowdown to changes in the composition of economic activity away from import-intensive investment, sluggish global value chain growth, the end of trade liberalization and the beginning of trade protectionism.
Our research suggests a negative association between world trade growth and policy uncertainty. The chart below juxtaposes the growth in volume of world merchandise imports against an index of global economic policy uncertainty. The particularly weak trade performance since mid-2018 has coincided with unusually high levels of economic policy uncertainty.
World import growth and policy uncertainty, January 2012 to June 2019
Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, Baker et al. (2016), and authors' calculations.
Economic policy uncertainty may lower trade growth in two ways. First, a rise in policy uncertainty reduces trade indirectly by reducing GDP growth. In a less-certain environment, firms may choose to postpone investment decisions, consumers may cut back spending, and banks may increase the cost of finance. Second, policy uncertainty may affect trade directly by affecting firms' decisions to invest to serve foreign markets or to source inputs internationally.
Our research covered 18 countries over 24 years. The results, which are robust across a wide range of specifications, suggest a statistically significant negative relationship between policy uncertainty and trade growth. A 1% increase in uncertainty is associated with a 0.02 percentage point reduction in goods and services trade volume growth. Based on these estimates, the increase in economic policy uncertainty since mid-2018 may have caused a 1 percentage point decrease in world trade growth.
The impact on components of trade helps illuminate the economic channels through which policy uncertainty affected trade. We find that uncertainty negatively affects imports of capital goods as well as imports used to produce exports. These findings are consistent with the view that uncertainty reduces trade growth by dampening foreign firms' incentives to invest in serving the market, by inducing consumers' precautionary saving and by affecting firms that are part of global value chains.
Our analysis highlights the malign effects of policy uncertainty, but more research is needed to draw firm conclusions.
First, it is hard to infer a causal relationship between policy uncertainty and trade because policy itself responds to economic circumstances and is likely to be forward-looking.
Second, it is difficult to disentangle the contrasting forces that affect how uncertainty interacts with firms' choices to structure production across different countries.
Finally, it would help to separate the impact of trade policy uncertainty from that of economic policy uncertainty more broadly, as well as the impact of domestic policy uncertainty from that of foreign policy uncertainty.
Tags: trade, policy uncertainty
Cristina Constantinescu
Economist, Trade and Competitiveness Global Practice, World Bank Group
Michele Ruta
Lead Economist, World Bank
Aaditya Mattoo
Research Manager, Trade and Integration, World Bank
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text:
Air Force must shrink, with or without sequestration
Jared Serbu reports.
The Air Force's acting secretary says the uncertainty around the federal budget makes it extremely hard to make decisions about the service's future shape and size. But even if the budget cuts are undone, the service will need to get smaller, he said.
Eric Fanning, the undersecretary of the Air Force who's currently serving as its acting top civilian, says both he and the service's chief of staff, Gen. Mark Welsh, believe that even if the Air Force were funded up to the level it requested, it would still be spending too much money on people and planes and not enough making sure the force was trained and ready. But sequestration, he says, only adds to that problem.
Assuming the service has to meet the funding caps of the budget control act for the next several years, he says the Air Force would have to reduce in size by 25,000 airmen and 550 aircraft.
"The Air Force is too big for the budget going forward if it stays at the sequestered level," he said. "That means we're going to have to pull things out of it just to right-size it, and then pull even more things out of it to protect what we need for future investments."
Fanning, speaking at a day-long summit organized by the online publication Defense One, said the Air Force is already building politically painful reductions into the two alternative budget plans it's constructing for 2015. The version of the plan that incorporates sequestration into the picture assumes not just that the Air Force will have fewer aircraft and personnel, but that it will be doing fewer things.
"We're not good at cutting mission when we bring down resources, but we're going to have to prioritize," he said. "We're living with sequestration, but we still have yet to submit a sequester-level budget. And we still don't know what we'll submit for 2015. The way things are going, I'm sure it will be a third entirely new budget. The Air Force budget is already meeting resistance in the Pentagon. The DoD budget will meet resistance in OMB. And when it comes to the Hill, you'll hear the day it hits, because it will be loud. But we have to be able to pull things out of force structure to protect investments and readiness, and that's going to be the hardest part of this. Whenever we submit a budget that reflects these spending levels, it's going to have a lot of things in there that upset a lot of people."
As with the other military services, Fanning says the Air Force's main problem with sequestration isn't so much the level of budget cutting involved — it's the fact that the cuts are sudden. And because of that, money has to be taken from areas where it can be found quickly, mostly readiness and modernization. And Congress has put roadblocks in the way of other efforts that could help DoD meet its savings targets.
"They won't let us do base closures, so that walls off infrastructure," he said. "Getting money out of force structure takes a while. If you do it with voluntary incentives, it costs money up front to reduce your uniformed and civilian workforce. So it puts enormous pressure in the first two or three years on your investment accounts and your operations accounts. For someone like me, coming into a job when the budget's coming down can be an exciting time because you're there prioritizing and reshaping for the future. But you need some stability in the budget to do that. So more than worrying about sequestered level funding as the new norm, I worry about the new norm of instability in the budget process."
That uncertainty, Fanning said, is putting the Air Force in a tough box. He says the Air Force certainly doesn't want to make further reductions to its force structure or cancel modernization programs. But if the service is definitely going to live with sequestration for the long haul, it needs to know, because it needs to start making changes right now.
"On the one hand you're holding out hope that you'll get some deal and some relief, and you don't want to make decisions to lop things off that you can't replace. On the other hand, the longer you go without executing and making these decisions, the more difficult and the more expensive the problem becomes," he said. "If you want to have an Air Force in 2015 with lower personnel costs, you need to start doing things now to get people out and give them time to understand their options and work through those processes. It's not whether the Air Force can get smaller. It's going to have to get smaller."
And it may get smaller just through natural attrition. Fanning says Air Force leaders are very concerned about losing talented pilots and other airmen just because of the loss of training opportunities. In the first year of sequestration, the Air Force grounded 31 squadrons for at least some period of time. Fanning says the service will have to take similar actions for the next several years until it can get a better balance between the amount of money it spends on personnel and the amount needed to keep units ready.
"These are men and women who want to fly those planes, and they're getting increasingly lucrative offers from the private sector," he said. "The airline industry is about to face a pretty large scale forced retirement. They've got a big bubble coming through. And if you're not flying your F-22 because it's grounded, you might as well go fly something else. That's a real concern of ours. We're offering big bonuses over 10 years, but the pilots aren't taking them. Because they're not flying, and they don't know what the future is, other than we've told them that in order to absorb the cuts of sequestration as quickly as we're going to have to, we're going to have flying hour issues for the foreseeable future. It's going to take us five years to dig out of this. In 2014 and 2015, we're going to have to continue these rolling groundings of two to three months per squadron."
Read more: Budget
DoD braces for a future of degraded military readiness
Federal budget cuts ground Air Force aircraft
US Air Force combat aircraft no longer grounded
Air Force Air Force All News Defense Defense Department Eric Fanning Management Readiness sequestration

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
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Look at all of these colors! Ther'es something for everyone!
First up, Waterworks! Waterworks is a barely there light blue base with small and large blue glitters packed in!
I used Waterworks over a white base but realized soon after that it could be a fully opaque polish without. Shown is one coat of polish with some additional dabbing for more glitter pieces. It dries slightly matte, so I added a glossy top coat for shine. I definitely see the 'water,' it reminds me of a very clear ocean scene. Just a single coat of top coat was enough to smooth this out, so no roughness!
This is a macro shot without the added top coat, because I really loved the depth of this polish.
Next up is Scorched, a dark caramel linear holographic polish.
Scorched isn't a strong holographic, it's not as evident inside as it is with direct sunlight. Without the holographic, it's a great brown to have as a neutral or as a part of a really cool nail art. It took two coats to become fully opaque and I used a coat of glossy top coat to just add some shine.
I then stepped outside to show what Scorched looks like with all of the holographic showing off!
Finally, Peridot. Peridot is a sheer lime green base with holographic gold glitters.
I used Peridot over a white base, so I only used one coat. It is a sheer base, so it could be layered over different colors to change what the shade is. There isn't any texture from this polish, so I only added the glossy top coat for shine. I did matte this (below) and I definitely love it matte! A lot of things I've seen that are named/based off of Peridot tend to be lame, but I really love this rendition!
Macro to see all of the glitters!
Mattes of all three polishes.
I really love the August Beauty Box from Pretty & Polished. The colors are all fun and different, and I can see them all being used in different looks. As I said before, this box is available until the end of the month.
Did you have a favorite polish? Let me know in the comments!


text:
Q: The metric space containing a compact subset is separable Let (X,d) be a metric space and K be a cpt subset of X.
If it is possible to derive 'X is compact', then since compact metric space is separable, X is separable. But I'm not sure that X is compact.
Do I have to prove that X is compact?, or Is there another method I don't know?

A: No, $\Bbb R$ is not compact in the usual metric, and $[0,1]$ is compact. The claim is certainly false in general, since any singleton is compact in any metric space of your liking, but there exist non-separable metric spaces.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Founded in 1980, Speedie & Associates is a locally-owned and operated Arizona business offering expert consultation in geotechnical, environmental and construction materials testing alongside inspection services. Since our inception, we have helped thousands of clients across Arizona. This success has seen our once-small company branch out from our Phoenix HQ to locations in Flagstaff, Tucson, Safford and Show Low.


The surf expo was awesome! We just finished wrapping up and not only did the whole team have a lot of fun attending the show, but we also spoke to a lot of people. The response to Grimmster Outdoor Robotics was great and a lot of people are excited about becoming Outdoor Robotics Dealers.
We would definitely call this show a success! Because of the overwhelming response we received we will be back at the Surf Expo in September 2014. The whole team is already looking forward to it and we can't wait to start designing our new booth for the show.
Thanks to all of the Grimmster Outdoor Robotics fans and team members for your support. You're the ones who made this show such a success for us and we couldn't have done it without you!
Make sure to contact us if you're interested in our next hands on Outdoor Robotics Demo Day. Space for the event is limited so make sure to contact us as soon as possible to ensure that you can get signed up. Take a look at the video below to see a full wrap up of the Surf Expo.


text:
Q: Parent css transform affecting d3.mouse points I'm using a third library that is adding 'transform: translate3d(200,0,0);' to a parent element. So the elements within the svg tend to move to the right. For drag&drop events, setting the origin is enough, but I'm having troubles to get corrected the d3.mouse(this).
I have created a jsfiddle of this example: http://bl.ocks.org/hlucasfranca/f133da4493553963e710
jsFiddle: https://jsfiddle.net/rahpuser/5jp6123u/
So, when clicking without applying the transform to the parent, everything is ok, but when the parent has the transform, d3.mouse returns a wrong number
var coords = d3.mouse(this);
coords[0] === 100; //true without transform..
coords[0] === 300; // true when the transform to the parent is applied.
// the values are not precise but you can verify the behavior in the jsfiddle

*

*Why d3.mouse(this) is not able to get the correct value ?

my understanding is that d3.mouse should get the coords based on the container this ( svg ).

*What should I do to fix the behavior keeping the parent with the new transform?

Thanks.
UPDATE:
Not working in Firefox 46 for ubuntu
Working well in chrome and opera

A: As you've discovered, this is a known FireFox bug. Even if you did fix FireFox, it's going to take some time to propagate, and it'll never be backwards-fixed. So you still need a workaround.
One thing you can do — as long as the SVG's top-left is always at the 0,0 coordinate of its containing div (as is the case with your jsFiddle) — is replace the call to d3.mouse(this) with:
d3.mouse(this.parentNode)

That'll get the mouse coordinate from the parent of the SVG, which is a normal div, so apparently it's not affected by this bug and will get you the value you want on all platforms.
This does not address the root problem (for example getClientBoundingRect would still return the wrong values), but it works around your specific problem.


(Full list here– current Mets are .306/.370/.347 vs Strasburg).
Meanwhile, with Ryan Zimmerman day to day, the Nats are missing his .375/.333/.350 against deGrom; that leaves their best options as Yunel Escobar (.500/.545/.600 in 10 plate appearances) and Bryce Harper (.385/.429/.462 in 14). Jose Lobaton (.500/.500/.500 in 2) and Ian Desmond (.308/.308/.538 in 13) also appear to be threats, but of course Desmond's defense makes him a double-edged sword. In 109 plate appearances, current Nationals hit .223/.250/.350 against deGrom.
In a crucial late-season game, this one looks promising for the Mets.


text:
Q: C# XML multiple subchild Good day! Im trying to parse XML subchild using dataset. The thing is its not reading the "SiteCode" when it has multiple value.
for example:

string filePath = @"" + _clsPathIntervalSttngs.localPath + "/" + "hehe.xml";

DataSet dataSet = new DataSet()
dataSet.ReadXml(filePath, XmlReadMode.InferSchema);
// Then display informations to test
foreach (DataTable table in dataSet.Tables)
{
     Console.WriteLine(table);
     for (int i = 0; i < table.Columns.Count; ++i)
     {
         Console.Write("\t" + table.Columns[i].ColumnName.Substring(0, Math.Min(6, table.Columns[i].ColumnName.Length)));
         Console.WriteLine();
     }
     foreach (var row in table.AsEnumerable())
     {
         for (int i = 0; i < table.Columns.Count; ++i)
         {
              Console.Write("\t" + row[i]);
         }
              Console.WriteLine();
     }
}

this is what it is returning.

Its returning a 0 value and selecting the Product instead of sitecode.
Where did i go wrong?

A: You might have to check the code because I just took something similar I had lying around and changed it to look at your document hierarchy. I also didn't use a DataSet. Consider the following code:
var filePath = "<path to your file.xml>";
var xml = XDocument.Load(filePath);

var items = from item in xml.Descendants("Product").Elements()
            select item.Value;
Array.ForEach(items.ToArray(), Console.WriteLine);

That should show you the values of each element under product. If you want the whole element, remove the .Value in the select clause of the LINQ query.
Update
I'm now projecting to an anonymous type. You'll get one of these for each Product element in the file.
var items = from item in dataset.Descendants("Product")
            select new
            {
                RefCode = item.Element("RefCode").Value,
                Codes = string.Join(", ", item.Elements("SiteCode").Select(x => x.Value)),
                Status = item.Element("Status").Value
            };
Array.ForEach(items.ToArray(), Console.WriteLine);

I have flattened the codes to a comma separated string but you can keep the IEnumerable or ToList it as you wish.

A: Using xml Linq :
using System;
using System.Collections.Generic;
using System.Linq;
using System.Text;
using System.Xml;
using System.Xml.Linq;
namespace ConsoleApplication51
{
    class Program
    {
    const string FILENAME = @"c:\temp\test.xml";
    static void Main(string[] args)
    {
        XElement doc = XElement.Load(FILENAME);

        List<Product> products = doc.Descendants("Product").Select(x => new Product()
        {
            refCode = (string)x.Element("RefCode"),
            siteCode = x.Elements("SiteCode").Select(y => (int)y).ToArray(),
            status = (string)x.Element("Status")
        }).ToList();

    }

}
public class Product
{
    public string refCode { get; set; }
    public int[] siteCode { get; set; }
    public string status { get; set; }
}

}


Great opportunity to own this greystone 2-flat in Garfield Park, completely rehabbed in 2006. First floor duplex-down, second unit top floor. Each unit features 3 bedrooms & 1 bathroom, & separate furnace/AC/electric panel/gas meter/In-building laundry. Detached 2 car garage. Owner pays for common area electric & water. Long-time tenants each pay $900 month-to-month lease. The leases don't reflect the actual market price for a 3 bedroom. Just waiting for new owners or investors! Live in one unit & rent the other!


Andrew Grant's newest 'Rover' book brims with lifelike photos of both homeless and beloved pets.
October 18, 2017, 8:43 a.m.
The dog portraits in photographer Andrew Grant's "Rover" books are striking. Clear-eyed canines gaze at the viewer, some with curious tilted heads or tongues lolling. There are puppies and young dogs, seniors and those of indeterminate age, all captured in a moment where you feel like you have a glimpse of their personalities.
Some of the subjects were photographed while in a shelter or with a rescue group. Many of the others once lived in a rescue or shelter and are now adopted.
Grant began photographing homeless and rescued dogs in 2009. He was inspired after working as a commercial photographer doing a shoot in a kitchen showroom owned by a friend.
"My friend's two bulldogs repeatedly strolled through the set, but I didn't feel it was appropriate to ask my friend to keep the dogs in a backroom since she was kind enough to let us take over her showroom for virtually an entire day," Grant tells MNN.
Instead, he included the dogs in several shots and the client loved it. Later, Grant joked to a friend that he wanted to produce an entire book of dogs.
"Why not? The two dogs I worked with were well trained, posed right where we wanted them to and looked right into the camera."
His friend told him how many cats and dogs entered shelters never to find homes, so Grant decided to do something about it. He quickly began production of his first "Rover" book, photographing more than 100 dogs and earning notice by TV's most notable dog lover, Ellen DeGeneres. With a portion of profits going to dog rescue groups, the books have raised $2 million for groups across the country.
He's now on book five, "Rover: Wagmore Edition" (Firefly Books). All previous editions have sold out.
The goal of the Rover books, says Grant, is to "illustrate that there are healthy, beautiful, loving purebreds and mixed breeds available for adoption at rescues everywhere." Grant points out that more than one-third of dogs living in rescues are purebreds.
"That's a vital message since some people with a strong penchant for a purebred dog may have never considered that they may be able to find the purebred they're looking for at a rescue."
Some of the dogs photographed in the books belong to pet owners who have made a generous donation to a rescue in order to have their dogs included. Some make donations to have homeless dogs photographed for the book.
"We're very proud of that program as it enables us to photograph homeless pets AND raise money for rescues," Grant says. "As a side note, I'd love to produce a book filled entirely with homeless pets as that would deliver a very powerful message. Unfortunately, we wouldn't be able to raise significant money for rescues doing that."
As many shelters and rescues know, having a flattering photo of a homeless pet certainly helps get them adopted.
"No matter how nice the shelter, pets simply don't like being caged up. Therefore, when we tour a facility we often find frightened pets cowering in the corner of the cage or aggressively barking. When we decide to photograph one of them, they'll often sprint down the hallway with us having no idea where they're going — only knowing that they're out of the cage," Grant says.
"Very often, after just a few minutes in the studio (and a few treats), the homeless pet that was just cowering in the corner will begin to reveal its real personalty and sometime even begin showing us all their tricks. I've found the dogs have a way of posing in a manner which seems to highlight their best features or most compelling qualities."
In the last eight or nine years, Grant estimates he's photographed close to 1,000 dogs.
"My favorite dogs are those who are food motivated as that makes my job much easier. I think most dogs view me as the guy who holds the treat dispenser (i.e., camera)," he says. "It's also rewarding to earn the trust of dogs who are shy or skittish at the beginning of the shoot. That may take a few hours, but always makes the resulting photo very memorable."
Grant says he photographs the dogs without collars or any accessories because the wants their eyes to be the focal point.
"The dogs are peering into the lens in virtually all the shots in the book," he says. "I think that provides us with the sense that we are looking into their souls. I think the eye contact in the photos reveals the dog's personality. We also use very high end medium format cameras and large lights that enable us to capture the dogs in stunning detail."
Grant and his publisher have donated about 1,000 copies of the Rover books to children's hospitals across the country.
"I was surprised at the popularity of the books, but as I watch children at children's hospitals pet the pages and adults laugh at some of the goofy expressions in the book I recognize it's a great conversation piece for pet lovers of all ages."
Before focusing on the "Rover" books, Grant worked as a commercial advertising photographer, where he photographed mostly people. He has occasionally trained his lens on feline subjects, but it's easier to focus on dogs, he says.
"I love cats, I've even owned a few, they're absolutely beautiful and enjoy trying to photograph them, but they don't offer as many expressions as dogs."


Do you really know who you're engaging with? Enjoy a Newcastle networking opportunity, a drink on us and a brief discussion from Danielle Brown and Kath Elliot with RPS.
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24 February 2017 – Western Digital Corporation, a global storage technology and solutions leader, today announced its fastest, high-capacity USB flash drive to date with the launch of its high-performance 256GB* SanDisk Extreme PRO USB 3.1 Solid State Flash Drive. The new drive delivers the speed, capacity, and reliability of an SSD in the convenient form factor of a small USB flash drive, and is ideal for creative professionals, tech enthusiasts, or anyone who creates and shares massive files.
A game-changer in the USB storage category, the drive is capable of read speeds up to 420MB/s and write speeds up to 380MB/s. With its unprecedented speeds, you can transfer full-length 4K movie to the drive in less than 15 seconds. With its USB 3.1 interface, people can rapidly access and move files on the go, without having to worry about a cable. The new drive also features a sophisticated design with a durable aluminum metal casing and a retractable connector for ultimate style and reliability.
The SanDisk Extreme PRO Solid State Flash Drive is available up to 256GB, giving consumers plenty of room to manage large files. For added file protection, it includes the SanDisk SecureAccess software, which offers 128-bit file encryption and password protection. The drive also comes with a limited lifetime warranty.
The SanDisk Extreme PRO USB 3.1 Solid State Flash Drive is now available in Malaysia in capacities of 128GB and 256GB with MSRPs of MYR 469 / ~US$ 104 and MYR 769 / US$ 170, respectively.


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All About the Hormones How To Use The Kit Science, Software & Your Biology
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Hormones & Cycles
Progesterone: Function, Symptoms and more
Progesterone often gets overlooked, but this messenger substance which was only discovered in 1933, plays a key role in controlling your menstrual cycle and getting pregnant. If there is a lack of progesterone, the road to pregnancy can quickly become challenging and even an otherwise stable cycle can get disrupted.
Where is progesterone produced?
Progesterone is mainly produced in the ovaries in the so-called corpus luteum and is therefore also called corpus luteum hormone. The corpus luteum matures after ovulation in the second half of the menstrual cycle and progesterone levels therefore change during the menstrual cycle: In the first half of the cycle (during the follicular phase, so from menstruation to ovulation) the hormone estradiol, which belongs to the estrogens, initially predominates. The concentration of progesterone in the blood is low in this phase. In contrast, it increases in the second half of the cycle, the luteal phase. Estradiol and progesterone interact to control the build-up of the uterine lining in preparation for a possible pregnancy.
At the end of the luteal phase the concentration of progesterone decreases again. As a result, the uterine lining is shed and menstrual bleeding begins. If pregnancy occurs, however, the progesterone concentration continues to rise. After some time, it is mainly the placenta that produces progesterone.
To put it simple, the main function of progesterone is to make you pregnant and to keep you pregnant. Initially, Progesterone primarily affects the uterus as it converts the lining of the uterus in the luteal phase, which affects cells, vessels, glands and cells of the uterine lining. Through this transformation, it is well prepared for the implantation of the fertilized egg and later supplies the embryo with nutrients. During pregnancy, progesterone prevents the development of further eggs and the onset of menstruation. Additionally, Progesterone also stimulates the growth of the mammary glands in your breasts for the release of milk.
Other functions of Progesterone
Bone maintenance: To maintain strong bones, the bone substance is built up and broken down in a controlled manner. In addition to the estrogens, progesterone also strengthens the bones: While estrogens inhibit the breakdown of bone substance, progesterone promotes the formation of new bone substances.
Skin & Hair: Progesterone reduces increased concentrations of male sex hormones in women. As a result, the skin texture may become more refined and hair growth improved.
Increased metabolic rate: Furthermore, progesterone stimulates your metabolism. This increases appetite and also your the body temperature increases after ovulation (approx. 0.5 degrees Celsius).
Progesterone acts on the nervous system: In addition, progesterone has positive effects on the nervous system. It relieves anxiety, promotes sleep, relaxes and calms the nervous system. For many women, a lack of progesterone is associated with anxiety, sleep disorders and mood swings.
Progesterone protects your uterus and breasts: Progesterone prevents the stimulating effect of estrogens on the uterine tissue and therefore reduces the risk of adenoids of the uterine lining and protects against uterine cancer. It can also have a protective effect on breasts.
Progesterone throughout your cycle
The progesterone value changes throughout the cycle. In particular, the luteinizing hormone (LH) from the pituitary gland plays an important role here. Initially, the progesterone concentration is low in the first half of the cycle (follicular phase). However, after LH triggers ovulation, the corpus luteum is formed in the second half of the cycle (luteal phase) which releases progesterone. The progesterone level rises accordingly and towards the end of the luteal phase, progesterone levels drop again and menstruation begins.
Low progesterone concentrations are present in the first half of the cycle and after menopause (postmenopause). In contrast, the progesterone level is high in the luteal phase. If a pregnancy occurs, the progesterone concentration continues to rise. In the second half of pregnancy the placenta takes over the production of progesterone: It then produces up to 10 times more progesterone than the corpus luteum produces in the luteal phase. This shows that a high progesterone level is obviously necessary to support a pregnancy.
Causes and consequences of progesterone deficiency
In case of progesterone deficiency, the corpus luteum produces too little progesterone. There are several names for this condition:
**-**Corpus luteum weakness,
**-**Corpus luteum insufficiency,
- Luteal phase defect (abbreviated LPD) or
- Luteal phase insufficiency
Causes are, for example, underdeveloped ovaries, cycles without ovulation or disorders of ovulation. A short luteal phase of less than 10 days, for example, is an indication of insufficient progesterone levels. This often results in cycle disorders and a desired pregnancy is difficult to achieve or does not occur at all. In addition, low progesterone levels increase the risk of miscarriage in early pregnancy. Experts therefore recommend that in these cases progesterone should be given to support the pregnancy.
Little progesterone in menopause
A low progesterone concentration is not always associated with a disorder. During menopause, the progesterone level drops naturally and then remains at about 0.2 ng/ml. This is sometimes the cause of typical menopausal symptoms, such as sleep disturbances and mood swings.
Treatment with progesterone
During the fertile phase of a woman's life, the range of applications of progesterone is wide. Here progesterone counteracts a disturbed menstrual cycle if this is due to a lack of progesterone. Furthermore, progesterone is used to support the luteal phase in the case of in vitro fertilization. The application is preferably vaginal. In certain high-risk pregnancies, progesterone can prevent miscarriage and premature birth.
Progesterone is also used as part of hormone therapy for women during and after the menopause. Here it protects the lining of the uterus from estrogen-induced adenoids when an estrogen supplement is taken and it can also be used to relieve menopausal symptoms.
Progesterone and corpus luteum insufficiency
Women with corpus luteum insufficiency often have an irregular menstrual cycle. Progesterone can help to counteract these irregularities. An insufficiency of the corpus luteum also regularly occurs during so-called ovarian stimulation in artificial insemination. Here, Progesterone is the standard therapy, which is because if progesterone levels are too low, the egg cell does not implant. If the therapy is continued up to the 12th week of pregnancy, the risk of early miscarriages due to progesterone deficiency is minimized.
Does Progesterone help with repeated miscarriages?
In some women with repeated miscarriages, also called habitual abortions, progesterone administration is useful. Studies have shown that progesterone reduces the risk of further miscarriages. However, progesterone does not help every woman. For this reason, the benefits of progesterone must be weighed up against the risks for every woman who wishes to have children.
Progesterone is also used to support pregnancy in women with a prematurely shortened cervix. Normally the cervix is shortened at the end of pregnancy to induce delivery. However, if the cervix is shortened prematurely, premature birth may be imminent. Several studies show that the administration of progesterone in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy results in fewer premature births.
Progesterone for menopausal symptoms
During menopause, the woman's body produces less estrogens and gestagens. This is the cause of irritating menopausal symptoms such as hot flashes and sleep disturbances. The symptoms considerably restrict the quality of life of many patients and hormone replacement therapy (HRT) can be used to counteract these symptoms. This involves replacing the hormones that the body no longer produces. HRT involves the administration of estrogens in particular, often in combination with a gestagen. Natural progesterone plays an important role here, as it has several advantages over synthetic gestagens.
How is progesterone administered?
There are many different forms and ways of taking progesterone. Progesterone is used in the form of capsules, tablets, gel or as a syringe for injection. Just as varied is the method of application: progesterone preparations can be swallowed or inserted vaginally. Progesterone can also be injected under the skin or into the muscle. Pharmacies also make progesterone creams for application to the skin and dispense them on prescription. The effectiveness varies depending on the method of administration.
What are possible side effects of progesterone?
Progesterone is generally well tolerated. However, studies have shown, that users can experience the following side effects:
- Drowsiness,
- temporary dizziness,
- Feeling full, stomach ache
- Breast tenderness
In most studies with progesterone no serious side effects occurred but nevertheless, experts recommend weighing the benefits against the risks of progesterone therapy.
Haas DM, Ramsey PS. Progestogen for preventing miscarriage. The Cochrane database of systematic reviews. 2008(2):Cd003511.
Coomarasamy A, Williams H, Truchanowicz E, et al. PROMISE: first-trimester progesterone therapy in women with a history of unexplained recurrent miscarriages – a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, international multicentre trial and economic evaluation. Health technology assessment (Winchester, England). 2016;20(41):1-92.
Maerdan M, Shi C, Zhang X, Fan L. The prevalence of short cervix between 20 and 24 weeks of gestation and vaginal progesterone for prolonging of gestation. The journal of maternal-fetal & neonatal medicine: the official journal of the European Association of Perinatal Medicine, the Federation of Asia and Oceania Perinatal Societies, the International Society of Perinatal Obstet. 2017;30(14):1646-1649.
Romero R, Conde-Agudelo A, Da Fonseca E, et al. Vaginal progesterone for preventing preterm birth and adverse perinatal outcomes in singleton gestations with a short cervix: a meta-analysis of individual patient data. American journal of obstetrics and gynecology. 2018;218(2):161-180.
Romero R, Yeo L, Miranda J, Hassan SS, Conde-Agudelo A, Chaiworapongsa T. A blueprint for the prevention of preterm birth: vaginal progesterone in women with a short cervix. Journal of perinatal medicine. 2013;41(1):27-44.
van der Linden M, Buckingham K, Farquhar C, Kremer JA, Metwally M. Luteal phase support for assisted reproduction cycles. The Cochrane database of systematic reviews. 2015(7):Cd009154.
Dodd JM, Jones L, Flenady V, Cincotta R, Crowther CA. Prenatal administration of progesterone for preventing preterm birth in women considered to be at risk of preterm birth. The Cochrane database of systematic reviews. 2013(7):Cd004947.
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Exactly what do we glean of Waugh through his older brother Alec's recollections?
After Oxford, Evelyn Waugh turns into a teacher, which supplies the fabric for Decline and Fall. He then will get married to Evelyn Gardner.
Disastrously. She would be a female form of the Dandies. She was pretty, silly, well-born – which Evelyn loved, while he was always a snob – and that he rather fell on her. They'd a brief, fun time together, but She-Evelyn was just really thinking about parties and getting fun, and didn't understand her husband whatsoever. As He-Evelyn disappeared for days at any given time, to operate on Vile Physiques, she began cheating with another man. He was mortified and miserable, however it was more that his amour propre was wounded. I believe he'd have become from her rapidly in almost any situation.
In Vile Physiques, Waugh's novel satirising that group of people, the second half is a lot more dark, with Adam Fenwick-Symes winding up on the European battlefield. Many ascribe that bleak ending towards the introduction to Waugh's marriage.
It was the worst factor that became of him. And underneath his bullying, he was missing in confidence, particularly sexual confidence with females. He was constantly falling hopelessly deeply in love with ladies who wouldn't provide him the time. He seemed to be vulnerable to depression, and also the ending of Vile Physiques reflects that clearly.
Do you experience feeling it evinces a wider disillusionment using the Vibrant Youthful Things?
He saw themself as them, dancing into chaos. He was afraid of chaos. And that's as he was saved through the Catholic church.
He transformed into Roman Catholicism in 1930. Why?
Among the draws for him was the church's inflexible rules. He understood wherever he was every minute during the day, which grew to become terribly vital that you him. He was always a hardline Catholic, and attempted to transform John Betjeman.


Below is a list of common debt collection agencies that specialize in collecting student loan debt. Student loan collectors are still required to comply with both the Fair Debt Collection Practice Act. This means a student is still entitled to be treated with respect, dignity, truth and fairness. Congress is also considering legislation which would make it unlawful to continue robo-dialing student loan borrowers after the borrower requests the collector to stop.
Attorney Rex Anderson is here to help. If you think your rights have been violated call now (800) 4-ATTY-REX or schedule a FREE consult.
(800) 715-0395 Pioneer Credit Recovery, Inc.
(888) 475-6741 The CBE Group, Inc.
(877) 244-7901 Account Control Technology, Inc.
(888) 327-2305 FMS Investment Corp.
(866) 441-1957 Immediate Credit Recovery Inc.
(888) 377-5000 Windham Professionals, Inc.


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Be A Net Zero Hero
What's the issue?
Government and Industry
Jo Corlett
Jo is a former Number 10 and DFID special adviser with a career spanning Parliament, government, international development and campaigns.
Jo held a wide variety of political roles, advising on international development including on issues such as energy and climate and human development. Since then, she has worked extensively on the Global Goals with the UN and Project Everyone – engaging with key stakeholders and finding new ways to communicate these issues to a broad audience.
As co-founder of Make My Money Matter, Jo hopes to catalyse a movement to help move trillions from investments which are ecologically destructive, socially divisive and economically unsustainable into those which drive the Global Goals and 2015 Paris Agreement.
Jo has been a volunteer with various charities, with a focus on children, and disabled and blind people – including volunteering in Sierra Leone, Rwanda, India and Cambodia.
She is mum to two young children and her retirement dreams revolve around them, but also the lives of the world's poorest: if we can get even close to achieving the Global Goals Jo will retire happy.
We're creating a movement calling for the trillions of pounds invested in our UK pensions to build a better world. Join us.
© 2021 Make My Money Matter. All rights reserved. Biscuit Building, 10 Redchurch Street, London, E2 7DD
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Thursday, September 08, 2022 by: Belle Carter
Tags: Blackouts, California, cargo vessel, Collapse, electricity, energy rationing, energy shortage, energy supply, Gavin Newsom, power, power grid, rationing, renewable energy, rolling blackouts, scarcity
(Natural News) California Gov. Gavin Newsom asked ocean vessels to avoid plugging into shore power for several days, in a bid to bring down power demand that is currently straining the Golden State's electric grid.
Newsom extended his earlier emergency proclamation that sought to preserve power capacity that disallowed vessel operators from plugging into on-dock electric power station. Under the edict, vessels moored from September 3 to 9 are not required to use shore power
As per current guidelines, 80 percent of container vessels, cruise ships and refrigerated vessels that dock at the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach and Oakland are required to use shore power. Newsom's edict stated that arriving vessels can temporarily use auxiliary engines to power onboard systems – such as lights, refrigerators, computers and pumps – during loading and unloading. Vessels already at berth are allowed to disconnect from the grid during the heat emergency.
Pacific Maritime Shipping Association Vice President and General Counsel Mike Jacob assured the compliance of member shipping companies. "As good corporate citizens, we anticipate that many of our members' vessels will participate as requested by Gov. Newsom," he wrote in an email.
However, Jacob expressed worry that it would be impractical for cargo vessel operators to suspend activity just to bring in an extra shoreside power crew and unplug a vessel from the grid.
Meanwhile, Newsom already urged different sectors in the economy, including the maritime industry, to reduce power use during the heat event as intense temperatures are expected to be 10 to 20 degrees warmer than normal, increasing demand for air conditioning and straining the electric grid.
"The duration of this heatwave is unlike those experienced in recent history, increasing the length of time the grid will face peak demand," Newsom said during his emergency measures announcement.
Rolling blackouts in California loom as heatwaves strain the power grid
Apart from the maritime industry, state officials are asking Californians to avoid straining the power grid as there is a great potential for rolling blackouts. (Related: ROLLING BLACKOUTS announced in California as power grid craters under record demand.)
The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) is calling on Californians to conserve energy from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. by avoiding the use of large appliances and setting the thermostat to 78 degrees or higher if health permits. CAISO provides energy to about 80 percent of the state.
"We have now entered the most intense phase of this heatwave," Elliot Mainzer, CAISO's chief executive officer said, adding that forecasted demand for this week is at all-time record levels and the potential for rotating outages has increased significantly.
He also said the grid may have "energy deficits of 2,000 to 4,000 megawatts, which is as much as 10 percent of normal electricity demand." That could take as many as three million households offline.
If blackouts ensue, they will mark the first time in two years that the lights have gone out for energy shortage reasons
Newsom's emergency order last week enabled industrial businesses and others to resort to their backup generators that otherwise would be prohibited by air-pollution regulations.
"A lot of our participants can turn on their generators and take the load off the grid," said Siva Gunda, vice chairman of the California Energy Commission.
California issued similar heat advisories for ports on four occasions in 2020 and 2021.
Visit PowerGrid.news for more news related to California's collapsing electric grid.
Watch the below video that tackles California's power grid collapse and "backfiring" green energy commitment.
This video is from the NewsClips channel on Brighteon.com.
More related stories:
Electricity shortages are coming, warn power grid operators.
Blackout risk in California: EV owners told to avoid charging their vehicles or the power grid might collapse.
Drought could force California power plant to shut down at hottest time of the year.
12 Things you need to survive a power grid collapse.
FreightWaves.com
Gov.CA.gov [PDF]
PublicPower.org
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https://www.naturalnews.com/2022-09-08-newsom-ships-dont-plug-shore-power-docked.html
Newsom asks ships not to use shore power while docked in order to reduce demand on electric grid