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Mathematical and statistical insights into Formula 1
Historical hypotheticals: Part V (Gilles Villeneuve & Michael Schumacher)
October 3, 2019 · by f1metrics · in Age and Experience, Driver Rankings, History, Mathematical models, Predictions, Team Rankings · 28 Comments
While most of the work I do on this blog is fairly serious analysis, this series has been an enjoyable, less serious side project. This is the final part of this five-part series, in which I apply the f1metrics model of driver and team performance to simulating historical hypothetical situations.
If you want to check out the previous articles in this series, they are linked here:
Part I (Senna, Pryce, Brise)
Part II (Kubica, Clark, Donohue, Revson)
Part III (Bellof and ex-champion comebacks)
Part IV (Alesi, Behra, Cevert)
For each hypothetical scenario below, I simulated either the extension/comeback of a driver's career or a change in teams during their career. Two types of outcomes are presented for the simulated scenarios:
(i) The adjusted driver performance rankings (in ppr) for each season, including the driver's predicted hypothetical performance at that age and with that level of experience. This is a ranking (ranging 0-10) of absolute driver performances, taking teams out of the equation. In other words, it's how the model predicts the drivers of that season would have performed in equal machinery. This is the same approach I use for my end of season driver rankings each year.
(ii) The predicted World Drivers' Championship standings for each season. In cases where these tables are presented, I am including the effects of a driver's hypothetical team on their points scored. In this simulation, I have either used the team's average reliability that season to generate the number of mechanical DNFs (if it is a simulated comeback or career extension) or the target car's reliability if it is a straight seat swap between two active drivers. To generate points tallies, I mapped the model's scoring rate function to all other points scoring systems in F1 history so that I could convert accurately between ppr and points scored.
I couldn't possibly finish this series without examining the career and potential of Gilles Villeneuve. Many fans consider Gilles their all-time greatest driver. He was a spectacularly gifted driver and a sheer entertainer behind the wheel. When his career was prematurely ended by a fatal crash in 1982, he was driving the season's best car and possibly on course for a first title, despite friction with his teammate Didier Pironi and a less than ideal start to the season, How likely is it that he would have won the 1982 title? And what more could he have achieved beyond that?
To attempt to answer these questions, we can use the f1metrics model to make predictions. First, let's take a look at how Gilles' driving performances are rated in each season by the model, and where it predicts he would likely have ranked going forward, taking age and experience into account.
Gilles Villeneuve's actual (blue) and predicted (red) performances relative to other drivers on the grid in each season. The red shaded region represents bounds of uncertainty on the prediction, taking into account uncertainty in the driver's performance estimate, as well as variability in age and experience effects.
The model places Gilles among the top few drivers on the grid at the time he was killed. It doesn't see him as likely to be the absolute best performer in any year, but between 1979 and 1984, he's never far off. As he was 32 when he was killed, it is predicted that Villeneuve could have maintained a stable plateau of performance for several years to come, which could have included performances similar to 1979-1981, given the bounds of uncertainty.
Imagining that Villeneuve survived in 1982, we can use the model to simulate how he would most likely have performed in subsequent seasons, had he continued racing for Ferrari.
Gilles Villeneuve at the wheel of the 1982 Ferrari 126 C2.
In 1982, Ferrari's car was undoubtedly the class of the field. The team won the constructors' championship despite losing both star drivers (Villeneuve to a fatal accident, Pironi to a career-ending injury), and as a result not even entering a car in 7 of the 32 available starts. With healthy drivers, Ferrari would clearly have taken the drivers' title. Instead, Keke Rosberg squeaked to the title, winning only a single race along the way, in one of the most turbulent and bizarre seasons in F1 history.
At the time that he was seriously injured, Pironi was clearly leading the championship, having scored 39 points in 10 starts (his car was withdrawn at Zolder when Villeneuve was killed). John Watson was 2nd in the championship on 30 points, and Keke Rosberg was on only 23 points.
Didier Pironi and Gilles Villeneuve as Ferrari teammates.
Villeneuve's season, by contrast, had gotten off to a very poor start, with two DNFs, a disqualification, and a 2nd place when teammate Didier Pironi ignored team orders to overtake him for the win. He had scored only 6 points in those 4 starts when he had his fatal crash.
Applying the model, we can simulate the 1982 season with Gilles Villeneuve and Didier Pironi starting every race they missed, using the results they had already scored. In this case, Villeneuve is predicted to make up the deficit to Pironi across the season and narrowly win the drivers' title. Keke Rosberg is a distant 3rd in the title race.
To simplify the hypothetical beyond 1982, I assumed that Pironi is no longer racing (although I note that Villeneuve would be predicted to outperform him as teammates in future seasons in any case). I simulated Villeneuve replacing Rene Arnoux (1983-1984) and Stefan Johansson (1985).
In 1983, Ferrari fielded Rene Arnoux and Patrick Tambay, finishing 3rd and 4th in the drivers' championship, and winning the constructors' title. The model rates the Ferrari the best car in 1983. Had Gilles continued racing for Ferrari, he would therefore have been in an excellent position to defend his hypothetical 1982 championship. Simulating the season, the model predicts Villeneuve as a likely 1983 title winner.
In 1984, McLaren had an unbeatable combination: the clear best car and the best overall driver pairing. Both Lauda and Prost doubled the points scored by Elio de Angelis, who finished 3rd in the championship. Racing for Ferrari, Villeneuve is predicted to perform better than either Alboreto or Arnoux managed with the car, but is still a clear 3rd in the championship. In 1985, Michele Alboreto mounted a serious title challenge in the first half of the season, which fell away with five mechanical failures in the last five races. The model predicts that Villeneuve could have extracted a bit more from the Ferrari than Alboreto, but still not quite enough to overcome the fundamental reliability issues to take the title from Prost. Beyond 1985, it would be difficult for Villeneuve to challenge the new elite, including Senna and Prost, especially if he remained at Ferrari, who were not seriously competitive again until 1990. In this alternate history, Villeneuve ends up with two championship titles (1982, 1983) and two near misses (1979, 1985). Ramifications of this timeline would include Keke Rosberg scoring no drivers' titles, and Nelson Piquet scoring two drivers' titles.
Michael Schumacher's career is absolutely rife with potential alternative paths. I decided to look at three serious scenarios here, as well as one semi-serious scenario.
What if Schumacher had not retired in 2006?
Michael Schumacher announces his retirement at the 2006 Italian Grand Prix.
This is probably the most often discussed hypothetical relating to Michael Schumacher. There are rumors that Schumacher was pushed into retirement before he was ready by Luca Montezemolo. While there were perhaps some early signs of age-related decline appearing in Schumacher's driving, they were only noticeable relative to his near flawless performances earlier. In 2006, he was doubtless still one of the top drivers on the grid.
One theory about Schumacher's retirement goes that Ferrari signed Kimi Raikkonen against Schumacher's wishes and gave Schumacher the choice to continue racing alongside him, which Schumacher declined, allowing his protege Felipe Massa to retain a Ferrari seat. Had Schumacher continued at Ferrari into 2007-2008, he would have been 38-39 years old, but racing in a championship-contending team.
Michael Schumacher's season performances and his estimated performance level had he competed in 2007 and 2008.
By the model's estimation, Schumacher was still among the best-performing drivers on the grid, and would have remained so into 2007-2008, even as he began to experience age-related decline. If we simulate the 2007 championship with Schumacher in Felipe Massa's place, the model sees Schumacher clearly leading the title race.
Continuing this hypothetical into 2008, when Massa narrowly lost the title to Hamilton, the model sees Schumacher as a slight championship favorite. The resulting Schumacher vs. Hamilton would have undoubtedly been epic.
In this hypothetical history, Schumacher would likely have taken his championship total from seven to nine, nearly doubling Fangio's five titles!
What if Schumacher had continued racing into the hybrid era?
Schumacher's comeback for Mercedes across 2010-2012 did not add to his 91 career wins. It could be viewed as unfortunately timed, considering Mercedes went on to become one of the most dominant teams ever just two years later. Part of Schumacher's performance issue in 2010 was the lack of recent experience, especially in a climate with very limited testing compared to what he had become accustomed to during his F1 career. As he gained familiarity with the formula (especially the tyres), he appeared to close the gap to Nico Rosberg, with the two being closely matched in 2012. What if Schumacher had simply continued racing at Mercedes into the hybrid era in 2014 and beyond?
First, we have to discuss the issue of teammates. Schumacher leaving Mercedes in 2013 was a major catalyst for the team signing Lewis Hamilton. It is therefore plausible that Mercedes would have retained the Schumacher-Rosberg line-up into the hybrid era. On the other hand, Hamilton's relationship with McLaren was clearly showing signs of strain, and might have been pushed beyond its limit by McLaren's hopelessly uncompetitve MP4-28 in 2013. A move to Mercedes would certainly remain on the cards. I have therefore assumed in this scenario that Mercedes would field the dream team of Lewis Hamilton and Michael Schumacher into the 2014 hybrid era.
Second, we have to discuss the issue of age. Going into the 2014 season, Schumacher would have been 45 years old. Loss of performance at this age is significant and simply unavoidable. By the model's estimation, Schumacher at this age would be no match for Hamilton in his prime, and would also be very likely to lose the championship if paired with Nico Rosberg.
Ultimately, there is no unwinding the hands of time, even for a driver who was as extraordinary as Michael Schumacher was at his peak.
What if Schumacher had raced at McLaren?
David Coulthard borrowed a Michael Schumacher helmet at Monaco allowing us to imagine how such a driver-team pairing might have looked.
For a long time in the 1990s, Ron Dennis was eager to secure the services of Schumacher. Ultimately, Schumacher moved to Ferrari in 1996, along with many of the best technical talents from Benetton. But what if, instead, he had been lured to McLaren and spent the main segment of his career there rather than at Ferrari? This would potentially have set up a formidable combination of Michael Schumacher's driving talents with Adrian Newey's design talents. Newey moved to McLaren in 1997 after he fell out with Williams over lack of input into team decisions such as the hiring of Jacques Villeneuve and subsequent firing of Damon Hill. He stayed with McLaren until 2005.
Michael Schumacher and Ron Dennis shaking hands.
Ferrari were in a massive rebuilding phase in the mid-1990s, led by Jean Todt. It is safe to assume that if they did not acquire Michael Schumacher, they would have gone after other top drivers, such as Damon Hill or Mika Hakkinen. In this hypothetical, I will assume that Hakkinen and Schumacher traded places, with Hakkinen moving to Ferrari in 1996 and Schumacher moving to McLaren.
In 1996, Schumacher famously dragged a disastrously ill-handling Ferrari chassis into an impressive 3rd in the championship. Irvine described the F310 as almost undriveable, scoring only 11 points. Overall, the model rates McLaren's MP4/11 a slightly more competitive car than the Ferrari F310, in large part due to reliability — Ferrari had 13 mechanical failures in 32 starts, compared to 6 mechanical failures for McLaren. In a McLaren seat, the model thinks Schumacher may have been able to challenge Villeneuve for 2nd in the championship, but still could not have realistically beaten Hill. Hakkinen is predicted to score 18 points for Ferrari, dropping to 6th in the championship.
In 1997, Schumacher once again was fighting a dominant Williams team in an inferior car. This season, the model rates the Ferrari and McLaren as very closely matched, meaning Schumacher's results are almost identical after a car swap.
In 1998, the first season that Newey had full input into car design, McLaren produced the dominant MP4/13, which Hakkinen took to the title in spite of some brilliant drives from Schumacher. With the best driver in the best car, the model sees the 1998 season as a walkover first title for Schumacher at McLaren.
The 1999 season was marred by Schumacher's broken leg after a brake failure in the British Grand Prix, causing him to miss six races. It is difficult to know what to do with this case in a hypothetical history. Do we assume Schumacher still missed races at McLaren? Do we assume the brake failure happened to Hakkinen and caused him to miss races instead? Or do we assume it was a freak accident that would not repeat and give both drivers a full season? We are essentially free to invent whatever history we want here, so I have not run a hypothetical reconstruction of 1999.
Schumacher's first Ferrari title came in 2000, when he narrowly beat Hakkinen to the title. The model considers McLaren to have had a competitive edge that season, meaning that when roles are reversed, Schumacher wins the title for McLaren with relative ease. Hakkinen's performance that year is rated similar to Barrichello's, meaning a close fight between the two Ferrari drivers.
By 2001, Ferrari had clearly the better performing car relative to McLaren. However, it was historically not Hakkinen's strongest season either. With Schumacher in the McLaren, the model predicts that he would be the favorite to clinch the 2001 title.
At the end of 2001, Mika Hakkinen retired from F1, ceding his McLaren seat to the promising Kimi Raikkonen. In this timeline, Hakkinen would retire without having won the 1998 drivers' title. Supposing that Raikkonen inherited Hakkinen's seat at Ferrari for 2002, as he did at McLaren, he would be placed in the incredibly dominant F2002. Even Schumacher at the height of his powers could not have competed with this car. He is predicted to be only 3rd in the championship for McLaren in 2002, as Raikkonen takes his first title.
The 2003 season was a classic and controversial three-way fight between Ferrari, McLaren, and Williams. McLaren started the season very strong, while Ferrari uncharacteristically struggled until they introduced the new F2003-GA at San Marino. Ferrari then went on a winning streak until they began to seriously struggle with tyre wear as a heat wave struck Europe, which affected Bridgestone's performance more than Michelin's.
Williams-BMW had the most powerful engine, but suffered from excessive understeer until Michelin introduced a wider front tyre at Monaco. Williams were a clear front-runner from here until the final races, when this improvement was nullified by a protest claiming that Michelin's tyres gained tread width as they became worn, forcing Michelin to introduce a new narrower tread tyre. Montoya's championship challenge collapsed partly through this tyre change, but also through early and late season errors, and partly through an inability to beat teammate Ralf Schumacher sufficiently often. Ferrari's strength in the final races allowed Michael Schumacher to narrowly clinch the title.
The model rates the three teams as closely matched in 2003, estimating that with equal drivers their ordering should have been Williams-McLaren-Ferrari. A seat swap between Schumacher and Raikkonen (all other factors playing out as they did) is therefore predicted to give Schumacher a clearer path to the 2003 title.
In 2004, the McLaren was unreliable and uncompetitive until the MP4-19B chassis upgrade in the second half of the season. Raikkonen historically managed only 45 points in the car. The model thinks Schumacher could only have done slightly better with it, while Raikkonen would romp to the title in the unbeatable F2004, in similar fashion to what Schumacher actually did that year.
In 2005, there were major changes to the tyre regulations, requiring tyres to last the entire duration of the race. This change was clearly intended to curb Ferrari's dominance by hurting Bridgestone, and in that respect it was successful. The championship was made into a two-horse race between Michelin-runners McLaren and Renault. McLaren had developed the incredibly quick MP4-20 for the 2005 season. On pace, it was unstoppable in the hands of Raikkonen, but it suffered poor reliability. Alonso ultimately prevailed for Renault in the title fight. Schumacher finished a distant 3rd in the championship for Ferrari.
If given Raikkonen's seat at McLaren, the model predicts that Schumacher would, like Raikkonen, have finished 2nd in the championship that year.
The first chapter of Schumacher's career concluded in 2006, as he retired at the end of the year. It was a close championship battle with Fernando Alonso at Renault, with Renault starting the season with a clear advantage until their mass-damper solution was banned. The McLaren was the clear third-best team. Had Schumacher swapped seats with Raikkonen, the model predicts that he could have challenged Raikkonen for 2nd in the championship despite the slightly inferior machinery, but he would not have been in the title fight with Alonso.
Beyond 2006, we could imagine Schumacher continuing at McLaren into 2007-2008, as we did in the above hypothetical, but he could equally well have retired at this point, as he did in reality.
In the graphic below, I have compared the titles that Schumacher actually won for Ferrari with the titles that he could hypothetically have won for McLaren, had he spent the same 1996-2006 period there.
Michael Schumacher's world titles for Ferrari vs. the world titles he would be predicted to score racing for McLaren under assumed seat swaps with Mika Hakkinen (1996-2001) and Kimi Raikkonen (2002-2006).
We can see from this hypothetical that a Schumacher-Newey alliance at McLaren would have had the potential to be nearly as successful as the Schumacher-Brawn-Byrne alliance was at Ferrari. In the hypothetical timeline, Schumacher would conclude 2006 with six drivers' titles, while Raikkonen would already have two drivers' titles.
What if Toyota had hired the other Schumacher?
Brothers Michael and Ralf Schumacher.
The Toyota F1 team is the canonical example of money not necessarily buying success in F1. Due to a number of internal problems, they were one of the least effective manufacturer teams on a per-dollar basis in F1 history. As I showed in my previous economic analysis, Toyota spent over $3 billion in 8 years, with no wins to show for it.
One of the team's most perplexing decisions was to hire Ralf Schumacher on a very high salary (reportedly around $19 million). It is often joked that the Toyota executives had accidentally signed the wrong Schumacher. What if Toyota had actually signed Michael Schumacher instead?
At the team's best, in 2005, Toyota finished 4th in the constructors' championship, with their drivers Ralf Schumacher and Jarno Trulli finishing 6th and 7th in the drivers' championship, respectively. They scored 5 podiums and 0 wins. What could Michael Schumacher at his peak have realistically achieved with that car?
By the model's estimation, the 2005 Toyota actually had a fair bit of promise with a top driver at the wheel. Notably, both Toyota drivers outscored the second Ferrari driver, Rubens Barrichello. The model rates the 2005 Toyota a better car than the 2005 Ferrari and predicts that Michael Schumacher would have scored more points in a Toyota seat than he did in his Ferrari seat that year, altough it would have required him adapting to Michelin rubber. To put it another way, the model thinks that Ralf's 45 points scored for Toyota was closer to Michael's 62 points scored for Ferrari than one would predict if the brothers were in equal machinery. Given the Ferrari seat in 2005, Ralf is predicted to score 23 points.
Where Toyota could have gone from there is unclear. In reality, they fell back to 6th in the constructors' championship in 2006. But, with an all-time great driver to help galvanize the team, and 3rd place in the driver's championship to show they seriously meant business, the entire team's trajectory (at least up to the global financial crisis) could feasibly have been different.
Honorable mentions and notable omissions
Before concluding this series, I want to note that there there are a number of hypothetical cases I would have loved to include but didn't for one reason or another. Most recently, I would have liked to include Jules Bianchi. He had a phenomenal junior driver career and I suspect he was destined for great things in Formula 1. Unfortunately, because he and Max Chilton only raced against each other as teammates in Formula 1, they form a disconnected pair, so the model cannot be used to estimate their performances against other drivers.
Going back to the 1950s, I was interested to explore the career of Stuart Lewis-Evans, who died aged 28 after an accident caused by mechanical failure. He was considered a very promising driver of the future. His qualifying records of 6-6 against Tony Brooks and 3-9 against the more experienced Stirling Moss indicate his impressive pace. But with only 6 counting races in his career (i.e., races without a non-driver DNF), it would be impossible to achieve any reliable predictions. The same problem applies to Ricardo Rodriguez, who has only 3 counting races. He debuted in Formula 1 at age 19 and likely had an excellent career ahead of him, were he not sadly killed aged 20.
There are of course many other drivers who had phenomenal results in junior single-seaters or other categories but never got a drive in F1. Those would be fascinating cases to explore, but at present I don't have a reliable method for linking performances between series. That may be an interesting future project.
I hope you have enjoyed this series. I certainly learned a lot in putting it together!
Tags: Didier Pironi, Driver swap, Ferrari, Gilles Villeneuve, Jules Bianchi, Kimi Raikkonen, Lewis Hamilton, McLaren, Mercedes, Michael Schumacher, Mika Hakkinen, Nico Rosberg, Ralf Schumacher, Toyota
Merlo · October 3, 2019 - 9:05 pm · Reply→
How come uncertainty is so large? I take it the scenario is less likely the closer we are to the edges of the red area?
Caught a typo: Alboerto. Or maybe Alboreto's brazilian cousin.
For 2005 you state: "If given Raikkonen's seat at McLaren", yet Raikkonen still has his seat in the image.
"One of the team's most perplexing decisions was to hire Ralf Schumacher on a very high salary" – Renault has left the chat
f1metrics · October 3, 2019 - 9:11 pm · Reply→
Thanks for the rapid feedback, I'll make some corrections!
Correct interpretation regarding the ranges displayed. The edges are very unlikely.
alpsm12345 · October 4, 2019 - 1:15 am · Reply→
You made a mistake in 2005. Raikkonen's slogan for the team should be of Ferrari with Montoya's slogan of Mclaren.
mmh · October 4, 2019 - 2:31 am · Reply→
Excellent work! I really enjoyed this series.
Heads up that the actual 1996 top 5 was:
HIL 97
VIL 78
MSC 59
HAK 31
Unless I'm missing something, there's a typo/mistake with the top 3 drivers' totals.
f1metrics · October 4, 2019 - 8:59 am · Reply→
Good catch! I'll fix it up now.
Seb · October 4, 2019 - 4:14 am · Reply→
Excellent and fascinating analysis, once more.
Jip · October 4, 2019 - 6:20 am · Reply→
Great what-if analysis as usual!
Interestingly, the model suggests that in 2004 and 2005 Räikkönen performed at Schumacher's level, whereas he was weaker in his much-praised 2003 season, as well as his sub-par 2006 season. This suggests that Räikkönen could have pushed Schumacher very hard, had they been team-mates at Ferrari. However, as we now know, Räikkönen's 2007 and 2008 seasons weren't particularly strong, so it seems very plausible indeed that Schumacher would have won the title in 2007 and 2008. Suppose Schumacher would have stayed with Ferrari for the 2009 and 2010 season, how would he have performed? Without his 3-year absence and a better car he might have had a small chance to challenge for the title in 2010, given that Alonso had a far from perfect season.
I always thought that the 1996 McLaren was about as good as the 1996 Ferrari, whereas the 1997 McLaren was better than the 1997 Ferrari. Interestingly, it's the other way round due to reliability. By the way, Schumacher scored 59 points in 1996, not 75.
Thank you for the feedback and correction.
The 2003 result is a little surprising to me, as Raikkonen appeared to have a very strong season. There are a few factors that go into this result, which I've summarized below.
1) The model doesn't take blame into account if a driver has a crash. This means that Raikkonen's crash in Germany (which I would consider near to blameless) is treated the same as Schumacher's crash in Brazil (which was clearly his fault). This also means that Barrichello's crash in Germany (again, blameless) is counted against him, serving to help Schumacher's season rating.
2) The model considers Coulthard a far weaker benchmark than Barrichello. Beating Barrichello is considered similarly difficult to beating Hakkinen in equal machinery. Although Schumacher was beaten in a few races by Barrichello in 2003, the model still considers that a more impressive feat than the margin by which Raikkonen beat Coulthard.
3) Raikkonen's championship challenge in 2003 was largely dependent on the unusual points system, which gave 2nd place 80% as many points as a win — a higher percentage than at any other stage in F1 history. As a result of this system, Raikkonen lost the championship to Schumacher just 93-91, despite Schumacher winning 6 races while Raikkonen won just 1. Under the 10-6-4-3-2-1 system, Schumacher would have won the title relatively easily 77-67. The same goes under the 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-3-2-1 system, under which Schumacher would have won 236-213. The model applies a standard scoring system across all years of the F1 championship, as this is necessary to integrate data across eras. The system it uses is closer to the commonly used scoring systems and less like the 2003 system.
Regarding Schumacher and 2010, the model predicts that even if he had raced across 2007-2009, he would be outperformed by Alonso in 2010 due to age-related decline, so probably would not be in the title hunt.
Merlo · October 4, 2019 - 3:44 pm ·
How does the model address the peculiarity of this scoring system? For example if A and B keep finishing 1-2 (10 to 7 pts), just counting the results up would mean A is now stronger in relation to B than he would've been if they kept finishing 2-3 (7 to 6 pts).
f1metrics · October 7, 2019 - 10:20 pm ·
There is a nonlinear function that links scoring to performance, meaning that performance differences are not proportional to points scoring rate differences.
One more thing · October 6, 2019 - 10:11 pm · Reply→
One more thought: I think RAI didn't perform at his best in any of his Ferrari years. I suppose there was something in the Ferrari environment that didn't suit him as well as the British teams. I mean if you look at his career excluding the Ferrari years, it's a completely different story to the Ferrari years. Sauber: fast from the get-go. McLaren: one of the very best drivers suffering from unreliability. Lotus: a highly impressive comeback, return to the elite. Alfa Romeo: still very strong despite the age. The career excluding Ferrari depicts RAI as one of the best comparable to the multiple champions; however his Ferrari years make him look like just better than average. The truth lies somewhere in between.
What I want to say is that had there been a duel between RAI and MSC in Ferrari, in addition to Schumacher most likely being the better driver at his peak, I assume RAI wouldn't have performed at his best. It seems for me that for whatever reason, RAI has performed better in all other teams he's driven for than in Ferrari. This is just a feeling I've got – it's of course impossible to find out objectively.
Your observations can be equally well explained by the quality of his teammates. Only at Ferrari did he face any elite drivers. His performances at other teams are likely overrated as a result. Beating Grosjean or Giovinazzi in their first full seasons is hardly impressive, for example, and certainly no evidence of a "return to the elite". Montoya and Coulthard were also not particularly challenging teammates compared to Vettel and Alonso.
One more thing · October 8, 2019 - 12:31 am ·
That is a fair point.
About the return to the elite: If I may, I'd like to quote your 2014 driver rankings:
"Last year, Raikkonen was widely considered a member of the sport's elite four, alongside Alonso, Hamilton, and Vettel."
As far as I can remember, many were expecting ALO v RAI to be a close battle. It turned out it wasn't (although it's fair to say RAI's difficulties in adapting to anything outside his comfort zone made him look worse than he is).
RAI has seemed to have a very narrow comfort zone or operating window, which also makes me think it wasn't just the teammates at Ferrari. See the 2013 season before and after the change of tyres. But as I said, this is just a hunch that is impossible to test empirically.
f1metrics · October 8, 2019 - 1:23 am ·
At the time, I agree that he was viewed as a member of the elite. With the benefit of hindsight (knowing more about Raikkonen and also Grosjean), I think he wasn't quite there.
Dimitris Zacharopoulos · October 8, 2019 - 3:34 am ·
@f1metrics Given that Raikkonen wasn't an elite driver in 2013, can we make a hypothesis that the E21 could have won the championship with a different driver behind the wheel?
One more thing · October 8, 2019 - 6:35 am ·
@f1metrics
That is true. My point was what would his career look like if the Ferrari years didn't exist.
The way I see RAI is that at his best he was among the very best but he needed a car exactly the way he wanted to and couldn't adapt very well unlike the likes of ALO who excelled in pretty much any car he got. Ferrari didn't have a car RAI preferred or for some reason the team didn't suit him well, which is a reason why he underperformed there. (I emphasize that even if having a tailor-made car, he couldn't have beaten the likes of ALO or VET under normal circumstances.) For me it seems those Ferrari years made him look worse than he is and he seemed to perform worse there. Not only comparing to teammates but comparing his performances per se.
But I think I've made my point. This is just a matter of opinion as I can neither prove anything nor can I be disproven conclusively.
Another topic. You've been teasing us about the all-time rankings. I spent some time thinking how I would rate the current drivers based on their current level (not peak). Here is my list of the top ten drivers currently in F1 based on their current abilities:
Top tier: Hamilton & Verstappen
Just below the top: Bottas, Leclerc, Ricciardo & Verstappen
Solid but not elite: Hülkenberg, Pérez & Räikkönen
Better than average: Sainz
Drivers in groups are in alphabetical order.
Erik · October 4, 2019 - 7:40 am · Reply→
Great work as always. A bit sad to not see an article about Moss in a Ferrari from 1962 or Ascari not crashing fatally. Nevertheless, these are interesting cases, most of which I have considered myself and agree with. Looking forward to your end-of-the-year export and your updated all-time list, even though I am quite certain your list and me will no longer share the opinion of who is number one. I guess it will Fangio, which I find extremely fair.
Dimitris Zacharopoulos · October 4, 2019 - 8:35 am · Reply→
Another great read!
The Schumacher-McLaren part made me think if there is any possibility to predict how a seat swap would influence a team's future trajectory. How difficult would it be for the model to predict that McLaren, with Schumacher's input, would be a better team than Ferrari from 2002 onwards (which seems logical)? Are there any plans to implement driver input in team performance when a hypothetical scenario arises?
Simon · October 11, 2019 - 2:59 pm · Reply→
Q) What if Schumacher had raced at McLaren?
A) No one would think Hakkinen was one of the greatest ever.
Interesting to see that Schumacher's career would possibly have been less successful in a Newey car.
Thank you for the quick uploads, much appreciated!
Merlo · October 12, 2019 - 11:42 pm · Reply→
I don't think the model takes Newey's influence into account. His March cars apparently sucked, as did the successors, which propelled the team's drivers sky high.
Simon · October 31, 2019 - 1:42 pm ·
I just meant that there is a perception that it was basically Schumacher (bat driver) vs Newey (best designer), but the model shows that it's not really true. (It probably was true for the 90s,)
rayvok · October 18, 2019 - 3:19 am · Reply→
Why didn't you cover 2009 for Schumacher? I know its a pretty busy list of hypothetical as you have them here, but it would be interesting far up the driver's table Schumacher drags the Ferrari based on how close Raikkonen was to the top 5 and how close the upper midfield was. Not to mention the rumor mills after Massa's incident, which is a separate hypothetical in itself.
It also could have been a neat demonstration on how the model deals with drivers coming back from hiatus by comparing historical 2010-12 Mercedes to Mercedes with Schumacher without hiatus.
AF1 · October 24, 2019 - 7:14 am · Reply→
This is pure gold! As a mathematician myself, I just adore hypothetical models. Thanks!
PS Waiting for the 2019 season-end report 😉
johnny.tifosi · November 4, 2019 - 8:26 pm · Reply→
The Schumacher hypothetical was very interesting. 2007 and 2008 pretty much confirmed my gut feeling: given Raikkonen won and Massa almost won a title with Ferrari, Schumi would definitely be able to run away with both of them.
May I suggest another hypothetical? What if Alonso never left Ferrari and drove for them until 2018? Actually, Alonso's carrer is just a huge "what if?". You could also do what if he never left Renault, McLaren, if he joined Red Bull etc.
Chris · November 5, 2019 - 2:20 am · Reply→
I loved this series! And I think there are potentially other options to explore.What if Honda had not switched to McLaren in 1988, and stayed with Williams? What if Mansell had stuck around to challenge Prost in 1993? And of course, what if Alonso had stayed at Mclaren in 2008, and been driving for Ferrari in 2017 and 2018 instead of Vettel?
Stefano · November 26, 2019 - 12:26 pm · Reply→
I really love this hypothetical stuff, especially the one regarding Schumi. It confirms the obvious: he would have won the title in 2007 and 2008. Just spotted one error, the F2003-GA made its debut at Spain, not San Marino.
A new f1metrics model | f1metrics · November 28, 2019 - 1:13 pm · Reply→
[…] Historical hypotheticals: Part V […]
osvaldinho · February 11, 2020 - 10:28 pm · Reply→
historical hypotheticals part vi coulthard and alonso
← Historical hypotheticals: Part IV (Alesi, Behra, Cevert)
The f1metrics top 100 →
2019 f1metrics end of season report
The f1metrics top 100
Historical hypotheticals: Part IV (Alesi, Behra, Cevert)
A new f1metrics model
BrianL on 2019 f1metrics end of season…
Merlo on The f1metrics top 100
Adam Goodfellow on The f1metrics top 100
Adam Goodfellow on 2019 f1metrics end of season…
Roberto on The f1metrics top 100
Age and Experience
Junior Drivers
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Eric Hung is Associate Professor of Music History at Westminster Choir College of Rider University in Princeton, New Jersey. His research focuses on Asian American music, recent Chinese music, music and new media, and contemporary music inspired by Balinese gamelan. Current projects include a book on cultural trauma in Asian American music, and an edited volume on Public Musicology. Hung is also an active pianist and conductor who has performed in Germany, Austria, Hong Kong, Australia, and throughout North America. He is also a member of New York-based Gamelan Dharma Swara, and the founder of the Westminster Chinese Music Ensemble.


Solar Citizens has welcomed media reports that Malcolm Turnbull has signed-up to a multi-billion dollar global innovation plan that would double government investment in clean energy research and development over the next five years.
The initiative would be a strong stride forward for solar and renewable energy in Australia and send a strong signal to investors that the Abbott era attacks on renewable energy were over, according to Campaigns Director Dan Scaysbrook.
"A doubling of government investment in clean energy could fast-track our place in the global renewable energy boom," he said today.
"A recent Essential Research poll found 65% of Australians approve of a national target of generating at least 50% of Australia's power from renewable energy by 2030, while only 16% disapprove.
"More than 1.4 million Australians have invested in rooftop solar and enjoy the clean energy and cost savings it generates. Because of their investment Australia is leading the world when it comes to solar generating clean and affordable energy.
"Australians want political leadership that can deliver cleaner, cheaper energy from solar. They have been promised a new era of support for renewables energy such as solar and now they want urgent action," he said.


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text:
Qualtrics International Inc (XM)
Follow Qualtrics International's earnings
Qualtrics International 26.90 +0.31 +1.17%
XM User Rankings
Users ranking according to the performance of their sentiments for the Qualtrics International Inc stock.
1 Andrey Shushakov 1 1 1 100 +100%
2 Valentin Lim 1 1 1 100 +100%
3 Коля Дживиряга 1 1 1 100 +100%
4 Михаил Квартин 1 1 0 0 0%
XM Comments
Write your thoughts about Qualtrics International Inc
Fabrizio Fusaro Jul 23, 2021 10:01AM ET
There's a new born token called SEKIN (I think is on zbx ICO) that is supposed to replace Qualtrics by connecting consumer base and compenies rewarding the feedback with tokens… pretty intersting
Yogui Bear Apr 23, 2021 6:02AM ET
Can somebody justify the +22.71? What happened here? ...
Jake Elzinga Mar 04, 2021 2:11PM ET
buying big here at $32.
Mike Brarey Feb 06, 2021 2:12AM ET
No dummy here knows anything about the actual product. XM offers a sub-standard survey product, for FREE, and users still hate it. It has no revenue, it has losses.
Show previous replies (1)
Stockis NotFun Feb 06, 2021 2:12AM ET
Ya I agreed they have loss but they have revenue. In next two years, they will achieve 1 billion revenue if maintain at 30% YoY growth rate.
Jake Elzinga Feb 06, 2021 2:12AM ET
I have experience using the product. It's insights are significantly better than competitor vendors. It is absolutely the best-in-class for XM
Jake Elzinga Ya the only competitors for Qualtrics which is SurveyMonkey. Apparently, survey monkey provide different thing than Qualtrics. Qualtrics give AI analytic insights on experience related data
Jake Elzinga Enough said to him. Wait until this IPO quiet period ended on March. Then the underwriter from Qualtrics will come out and write an analysis coverage report on this company.
I'm sure you're all enjoying buying this dip
Jake Elzinga Feb 05, 2021 3:19PM ET
Love the company. It's got a great future and is miles ahead of any other XM software. Companies are transitioning to Customer analytics, journeys, touchpoints enmasse.
Mike Brarey Feb 05, 2021 3:19PM ET
any other software
how is it better, tell us please?
Stockis NotFun Feb 03, 2021 9:39PM ET
@Mike Brarey, keep complaining how bad is the system then how come they can earn so much rewards? What does this means? Your user reviews is not reliable at all. Got people use the system of course got people hate the system. Most important thing is big customer like microsoft, BMW is using it
BMW is using SAP, which owns Qualtrics and has been tricked into this commercial unintendedly... none of the things mentioned are real
all smoke and mirrors, in reality it is a burdensome and over complicated product just as much as SAP
In 2020, Qualtrics earned a 'Leader' designation in Gartner's Magic Quadrant for Voice of Customer,[19] a 'leader' designation in Forrester's Employee Experience for Enterprise wave,[20] and the top ranking in G2's Experience Management category.[21] In 2016, Qualtrics was ranked #12 on the Forbes Cloud 100 list,[22] moving to #6 in 2017.[23] In March 2020, Qualtrics' CoreXM platform was named a 2020 gold winner by the Edison Awards in the Applied Technology category.[24][25]
Jared Atkins Feb 03, 2021 9:23PM ET
qualtrics will climb to $75 over the next 15-45 days
Mike Brarey Feb 01, 2021 12:03AM ET
See link below, this is going to zero. Open short:
You should follow what the the CEO says, he says buy the stocks he just sold to you and you do it. A+!
pan Da, you didn't read the reviews. They complain about the survey product.
What do you all even know - you aren't using this product or any of its competitors. You are just buying it because it went up
Alexis Lob Feb 01, 2021 12:03AM ET
Mike Brarey sorry mate but you re wrong! btw not all insight teams would agree to your point of view....
Stockis NotFun Feb 01, 2021 12:03AM ET
Mike Brarey I rather trust their SAP CEO than you who don't have any credibility. I doubt you don't even know what's SAP. Of course we know who are their competitors. You seems like don't understand why SAP acquired this also.
https://www.trustpilot.com/review/qualtrics.com
Stockis NotFun Jan 29, 2021 12:40PM ET
I am entering now. I guess this is considering fair price after 2 years. Be prepared for upcoming innovation news from both SAP and Qualtrics in future.
Mike Brarey Jan 29, 2021 12:40PM ET
Get ready for a cold shower
Mike Brarey Jan 28, 2021 3:25PM ET
know what you're shorting:
Edwin Henriquez Jan 28, 2021 1:27PM ET
this is taking to long 🤔
Edwin Henriquez Jan 28, 2021 12:18PM ET
guys be ready at 12:55 pm to 1:05 pm it will start trading good luck everyone 👍
Alexis Lob Jan 28, 2021 11:00AM ET
when does the trading start? I mean which time today?
Stockis NotFun Jan 28, 2021 10:54AM ET
It's ok as long as you can grab anything around 25 ~ 30 price. This will be the original IPO price. SAP acquired this means they have some future plan on their mind.
Craig Warren Jan 28, 2021 10:37AM ET
I suspect they'll eventually be the best of the group but it's crazy as the market is right now, It's hard to figure out what a real value on virtually anything.
Stockis NotFun Jan 28, 2021 8:53AM ET
Hmm best price to enter is between $25 - $30. Currently there's a lot of debt incur for this company. However, SAP had acquired this and strongly suggest this company is profitable. I couldn't see Qualtrics can be growing on its own. With the help of SAP, Qualtrics can further grow their customer base to even greater level.
Md Alam Jan 25, 2021 10:08AM ET
I can see the price. Is it already open market?
Den Denilson Jan 23, 2021 1:04PM ET
So, let me be the first to open up the discussions here, about the QUALTRICS (XM). What do you expect to happen after the IPO? Currently, the opening price range is between $22-$26 ...but the actual opening price could be above $30 or even more. Do you consider to build a position early on in this company.. and what is the price point(s) that you're targeting?
XM 26.90 +0.31 +1.17%

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text:
U of G Political Scientist's Election Insight Sought By Many
Dr. Tamara Small
Dr. Tamara Small, a professor in Department of Political Science, has been interviewed by several news outlets in recent days about this week's federal election.
Small appeared on a political panel on CBC Radio's The Current to discuss the aftermath of the election and whether the federal parties will be able to cooperate in a minority government. Clips from that interview were also featured on CBC Kitchener-Waterloo.
Reuters News spoke to Small about the future of Justin Trudeau's leadership given his failure to earn a majority in his third election — and whether this one might be his last.
The Canadian Press spoke to Small about the popularity of Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada and how it grew in this election. Small said while many underestimated Bernier's popularity a year ago, his rhetoric during the pandemic appealed to many Conservatives and those who oppose COVID-19 vaccinations and lockdowns.
CTVNews.ca also spoke to Small about the surge in the PPC's popularity.
Ahead of Monday's election, Small spoke again to The Canadian Press Small about whether candidates' social media presence during this campaign would translate into votes at the polls. Small expressed skepticism, noting social media popularity appears to have little impact on changing people's partisanship.
In an interview with the Toronto Star, Small discussed what makes for an effective election lawn sign. She commented on the advantages of a candidate adding a photo of oneself to a sign and noted that many decisions on what to put on signs are carefully made based on polling.
Small gave her assessment of which ridings in the KW region are worth a watch in an interview with CBC Kitchener-Waterloo, and noted the most interesting races will be those where there's no incumbent seeking re-election.
Small researches many aspects of Canadian politics, including the influence of image, political parties' use of the internet and social media for campaigning, and the regulatory framework for digital technologies in Canadian elections.
She also engaged in several media interviews in the early days of the election campaign, including with CBC News Network and The Canadian Press.
How to Read U.S. Election Maps as Votes Are Being Counted
OVC Cancer Research, Grads, Profs In the News
Why Social Media Gaffes are Ruining Political Candidates
Profs, Students Making Headlines
Posted Wednesday, September 22, 2021
Updated Thursday, September 23, 2021
Lead photo: Dr. Tamara Small


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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


Rob and Sarah Hammelman bring a mix of soul and science to both their winery in Willcox and the new Sand-Reckoner tasting room in Tucson's Warehouse Arts District.
Walk into Sand-Reckoner's stylish new tasting room in Tucson's Warehouse Arts District and one of the first things you'll see is an encaustic-and-fabric wall piece of evocative organic shapes in shades of green. This untitled abstract by Miles Conrad—co-owner of the Conrad Wilde Gallery, which shares space with the tasting room—is not only riveting in its own right but also captures the marriage between art and science that defines Sand-Reckoner's wines.
Rob and Sarah Hammelman founded Sand-Reckoner in Willcox in 2010 after traveling around the world in pursuit of wine.
Sand-Reckoner's stylish new tasting room in Tucson's Warehouse Arts District opened in February of 2017.
Having spent the summer of 2000 working in Sonoita at the pioneering Callaghan Vineyards, Rob was already familiar with the terroir of southern Arizona. It was a circuitous journey back to the area, however, one that took him first to southern Australia, where he got an advanced degree in oenology at the University of Adelaide; to Colorado, where he was the winemaker at Two Rivers Winery; and to Gigondas, France, where he was brought to the 2,000-year-old cellars of Château de St. Cosme by Louis Barruol, a 14th-generation winemaker in the Rhône Valley.
Sarah was working the harvest at Two Rivers when her path intersected with Rob's. She left for Etude Wines in Napa to learn how to make Pinot Noir, but when Rob got the job in France she couldn't pass up the opportunity to accompany him. After their stay in Europe, they went to Napa to find work together, but discovered that a bad economy had caused the usually fluid winemaking industry to batten down. There were no jobs available. That's when they had their "aha"—or, to bring it back to Archimedes, "Eureka!"—moment.
Sarah explains, "We always travel with wine, and the case we had with us then had a bottle of Callaghan wine in it. We realized how different it was from what we were drinking in California—how interesting. We both got really excited about it." Seeking a vineyard that was already planted so they could immediately start making their own wine, they found Sweet Sunrise, a large farm on the Willcox Bench that sits between the Chiricahua and Dragoon mountains at 4,300 feet. Malvasia Bianca, Sangiovese, Nebbiolo, Syrah, and Zinfandel grapes were already planted in the three-acre vineyard. The Hammelmans added Sagrantino, Montepulciano, and Petit Verdot grapes.
The first two years, the Hammelmans produced 400 to 450 cases of wine using only fruit from their vineyards. Now, about 2,000 cases are bottled under the Sand-Reckoner label, several incorporating grapes from other southern Arizona vineyards—which are now being highlighted in a new small-batch vineyard series.
Because Rob and Sarah are so hands-on with their Willcox vineyard—and because they have two small children—they only manage to get to Tucson about once a week. That's not a problem. The tasting room is in the very capable hands of Tana Fryer, best known around town for Blu A Wine and Cheese Stop, a gourmet retail shop she had at the Mercado San Agustín. "I was selling Sand-Reckoner wine at Blu, so I had a long-standing relationship with Rob and Sarah, and I really know and love their wine," Fryer says. She also really knows and loves cheese and other wine complements, and the tasting room is the perfect outlet for her catering skills. Among her creations is a Plant Plate for vegans that includes dried fruit, olives, pickled vegetables, and double-cream cashew chive cheese.
That is not to suggest that the Hammelmans were not as hands-on in the creation of the tasting room as they are in crafting their wines. They pored over every detail, from deciding to host a microgallery in the space—it's now on the First Saturday Art Walk—to commissioning the striking piece that greets visitors. "It was inspired by an illustration in one of our anatomy-of-grapevines books," Rob says. "It suggests the cellular structure of the vines, and the nerve impulses that give them their energetic nature." Rob and Sarah also gave artist Miles Conrad grape leaves from their vineyard to work with.
Sand-Reckoner Tasting Room. 510 N. Seventh Ave. 303.931.8472. Sand-Reckoner.com.
Edie Jarolim is a freelancer who writes mainly about food, travel, and dogs. Her latest book is a memoir, Getting Naked for Money: An Accidental Travel Writer Reveals All.
This untitled abstract by Miles Conrad—co-owner of the Conrad Wilde Gallery, which shares space with the tasting room—captures the marriage between art and science that defines Sand-Reckoner's wines.


Walking in the footsteps of Chinua Achebe, Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, and others in the Nigerian literary canon, Chibundu Onuzo's Welcome to Lagos is the next contemporary Nigerian novel. Onuzo leads readers through a thematically riveting novel as she paints a picture of Nigeria's beauty, horror, and the perceptions of both the its people and those looking in on its people.
We first meet Chike, an upright soldier who finds himself in the throes of indecision as he is told to murder an entire village. Abandoning his post and finding a host of unlikely characters along the way, Chike becomes the father figure to this vagabond group of Nigerians. A runaway wife who is finished being abused, a young girl overcoming a battle with a newly experienced trauma, and eventually a corrupt(ish) politician are only a few of the characters in Chike's cohort.
Throughout Welcome to Lagos, themes of morality, forgiveness, and corruption are explored as we learn to love the characters we thought we were meant to hate. Characters are reborn in the eyes of the reader, and we watch them grow from outlaws or weak characters to commendable and ferocious leaders. Onuzo has a unique ability to draw in readers through these themes in ways that make you forget the who of the story and instead feel rooted in its many messages.
Though the characters often felt distant and it is hard to truly get to know any of them because of Onuzo's panoramic perspective, Welcome to Lagos is a novel that is driven to share itself with the world.
Published by Catapult in May of 2018, Welcome to Lagos by Chibundu Onuzo is available for purchase at your local bookstore.


11 play activities enrich children's mind and body.
With the yellow flags in view, children will seek the safe adrenaline rush that the 9 ft. wave slide can provide. Next, they will swing next to their closest friends on one of the two belt swings or twist and turn simultaneously on the trapeze bar with rings. After climbing up the rock wall or step ladder, children will exercise their imaginative minds too with the telescope or steering wheel. Children can even play peek-a-boo with their friends via the look-out window. The Sky Loft wooden swing set is crafted with premium cedar - known for its beautiful finish and resilient qualities. Let the backyard adventure begin!


text:
Featured Article, Music Tips, Musician Profiles, Woodwinds/Brass June 30, 2021July 1, 2021 Tom Wanamaker
A serious, dedicated musician often possesses a passion for music which a non-musician may not fully comprehend. Indeed, this enthusiasm can continue to drive said musician, even though he or she may be forced to turn to non-musical endeavors simply to earn a living. The rare musician who can live a fully musical life, at both work and play, is to be admired.
Craig Dougald, proprietor of Crozet Music LLC in Crozet, Va., is one such musician who has managed to build a business and a "career" around his passion for music.
Beginning in 1984, Craig played drums and sang for the Charlottesville, Va.-based band Indecision, which toured extensively throughout the southeastern U.S. and other parts of the country from the mid-1980s through the early 1990s. When the band decided to stop its extensive touring, Craig realized, "I needed a job."
Woodwind repair
"In order to make a living at what I love doing, playing music, I branched out into other musical endeavors, including retail, instrument repair, and teaching lessons," Craig told MakingMusicMag.com in a recent interview. He began to work retail at a local music store. This quickly led to a training program in repairing and maintaining woodwind instruments, primarily for school band students.
Craig spent the next 17 years repairing all types of wind instruments, thus acquiring a large body of expertise. When his locally owned repair shop was bought out by a national chain of music stores, he explored going into business for himself.
"I began to be worried about my job," Craig said. So, he took some classes offered by the federal Small Business Administration, which turned out to be a great decision as the national chain shut down his former employer's repair shop.
"I said to myself, hey I like what I'm doing – I'm going to start my own business," he said.
Thus was born Crozet Music Co. Today, Craig specializes in repairing many types of wind instruments, from piccolos to baritone saxophones for clients ranging from students to professional players. He kindly offered a few tidbits of advice for players of all abilities.
"It may sound like common sense, but keep your instrument in a case," he said. "This will keep it from getting damaged. Also, keep it clean, swab it out after you play it."
Using the clarinet as an example, Craig said players can keep the rods and keys lightly lubricated and make sure the corks are greased to keep them all in working order. He urged caution, however, in adjusting the clarinet's various screws.
"Don't use a screwdriver unless you know what you're doing," he advised. "Turn a screw wrong and you will take the instrument out of regulation." Regulation refers to the motion of the instrument's rods and keys, which must be carefully timed and coordinated in order that the instrument will work and play properly.
Brass instruments must be thoroughly cleaned to get the spit out and prevent "red rot."
"Brass doesn't rust, it disintegrates from the inside out. Keeping the instrument clean will keep the slides and valves moving freely and will help prevent red rot in the long term," Craig explained.
Take it to a pro
Craig also urges instrument owners to periodically bring their instruments to a professional for overhaul rather than settling for occasional minor repairs. This will keep the instrument in regulation and will avoid leaks.
"It's the equivalent of having four flat tires on your car and changing only one," he explained, adding this is particularly important for beginners and students.
"The instrument needs to play properly," Craig said. "Otherwise, it will squeak and squawk and the kid will think it's his or her fault and maybe quit because they think they can't play. A pro can play past a leak, but a beginner can't."
Just because a player is a novice, that doesn't mean that repairs should be skimped upon, Craig says. The felt pads on a clarinet and the leather pads on a saxophone should be mended or replaced periodically to keep the instrument in working order. All moving parts should be periodically lubricated to keep them moving effortlessly.
"Every instrument is different," Craig said. "Take it to a pro and have it looked at.
In addition to repairs, Craig offers drum, piano and guitar lessons through Crozet Music. He is also an adjunct faculty member at Woodberry Forest School in Orange, Va., where he teaches percussion for the school's concert band, as well as Celtic and Scottish drumming for Woodberry's bagpipe band.
Academically, Craig holds a BA in Music Performance from Virginia Commonwealth University, with a major in Percussion and Piano. He also studied Music Education at East Carolina University.
Craig's band, Indecision, still performs occasional shows in Charlottesville, Richmond and other locales throughout the southeastern United States.
Check out Crozet Music LLC on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Crozet-Music-108642935850340
For more on Indecision, go to: https://www.facebook.com/indecision/
advice, featured article, instruments, music tips
Tom Wanamaker
http://makingmusicmag.com
Tom is the Managing Editor here at MakingMusicMag.com. He has worked as an editor/writer for more than two decades and plays several musical instruments with varying degrees of proficiency.
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Rebecca Landy, Cancer Screening Statistician at Queen Mary University of London, writes in The Conversation about why women who have a HPV jab may only need three cervical screens in a lifetime.
The human papillomavirus or HPV is an incredibly common sexually transmitted infection: more than 85 per cent of women will be infected during their lifetimes and, according to the US Center for Disease Control: "HPV is so common that nearly all sexually active people get it at some point in their lives". While the vast majority of infections clear on their own, a small proportion progress to cause cervical and other cancers.
The risk of cervical cancer has been shown to be much higher for women with HPV, with the risk varying by type of HPV virus. HPV types 16 and 18 bring the highest risk, responsible for around 70 per cent of cervical cancers between them. Compared to a woman without an HPV infection, women infected with HPV16/18 are more than 300 times as likely to have cervical cancer. The fact is that if there were no HPV, there would be almost no cervical cancer. Which means tackling HPV infection is of vital importance.
It's this understanding of the carcinogenic effects of HPV that has led health authorities in the UK to offer HPV vaccination to girls aged 12 at school, free of charge, since 2008. The current vaccine, Gardasil, protects against four strains of HPV: types 16 and 18 that cause around 70 per cent of all cervical cancers, and types 6 and 11 that cause around 90% of genital warts. Gardasil has been proven to have 96 per cent efficacy against HPV infection when followed up after nine years.
We built a microsimulation model of the natural history of cervical cancer in a cohort of girls from age 12 to 80, and considered a variety of vaccination and screening combinations in order to analyse the effects of the HPV vaccine and cervical screening on women. Our study, published in the International Journal of Cancer, found that the combined effects of vaccination and improved screening measures would mean that women require far fewer cervical cancer screenings – a relief for women, and an enormous cost saving for the NHS and taxpayer.
The current cervical screening, or smear test, first looks for abnormal cells. If these are detected, the sample is then tested for the presence of HPV. However the screening programme is due to change in 2019 to the more efficient approach of first testing samples for HPV, following a pilot study which began in England in 2013. Our modelling suggests that seven screens over a lifetime will provide the same protection for women who have not been vaccinated against HPV as the 12 screens recommended under the current programme.
For young women who have been vaccinated against HPV and who are therefore at much lower risk of cervical cancer, our model suggested that the number of lifetime screens would fall from 12 to three. Women vaccinated aged 12 in 2008 are now 21, and would start being screened in 2021 under the current screening programme – which invites women for their first screen aged 25. So this forthcoming change in 2019 presents a great opportunity for health authorities to draw up adjusted guidelines for the lower number of screens required by vaccinated women to account for the lower risk they face.
In 2015 a new vaccine, Gardasil-9, which protects against 9 types of HPV and prevents around 90 per cent of cervical cancers, was approved for use in Europe. If this vaccine replaces the current vaccine, women will only require two screens during their lives.
The cost of cervical cancer screening in England in 2013 was around £175m. The switch to the new testing regime would mean not only less women getting cervical cancer, but also substantial cost savings. We'd need more results from the pilot to get an accurate estimate, but it's likely that savings would be in the region of £40-80 million each year – money that can be reinvested into other services. In any case, as cervical screening isn't a fun experience, anything that reduces the number of times women need it is good news.


Since a filesystem resource manager may potentially receive long pathnames, it must be able to parse and handle each component of the path properly.
where /mount/home is a directory on the device.
If we wanted our resource manager to handle multiple devices, the change is really quite simple. We would call resmgr_attach() for each device name we wanted to register. We would also pass in an attributes structure that was unique to each registered device, so that functions such as chmod() would be able to modify the attributes associated with the correct resource.
The first modification simply declares an array of attributes, so that each device has its own attributes structure. As a convenience, we've also declared an array of names to simplify passing the name of the device in the for loop. Some resource managers (such as devc-ser8250) construct the device names on the fly or fetch them from the command line.
The second modification initializes the array of attribute structures and then calls resmgr_attach() multiple times, once for each device, passing in a unique name and a unique attribute structure.
Those are all the changes required. Nothing in our io_read or io_write handlers has to change — the iofunc-layer default functions will gracefully handle the multiple devices.
A typical resource manager can take over any number of pathnames. A practical limit, however, is on the order of a hundred — the real limit is a function of memory size and lookup speed in the process manager.
What if you wanted to take over thousands or even millions of pathnames?
The most straightforward method of doing this is to take over a pathname prefix and manage a directory structure below that prefix (or mountpoint).
A CD-ROM filesystem might take over the pathname prefix /cdrom, and then handle any requests for files below that pathname by going out to the CD-ROM device.
A filesystem for managing compressed files might take over a pathname prefix of /uncompressed, and then uncompress disk files on the fly as read requests arrive.
A network filesystem could present the directory structure of a remote machine called "flipper" under the pathname prefix of /mount/flipper and allow the user to access flipper's files as if they were local to the current machine.
And those are just the most obvious ones. The reasons (and possibilities) are almost endless.
The _RESMGR_FLAG_DIR bit in the flags argument to resmgr_attach() informs the library that the resource manager will accept matches at or below the defined mountpoint.
The _IO_CONNECT logic has to check the individual pathname components against permissions and access authorizations. It must also ensure that the proper attribute is bound when a particular filename is accessed.
The _IO_READ logic has to return the data for either the "file" or "directory" specified by the pathname.
Let's look at these points in turn.
If we specified the value _RESMGR_FLAG_DIR instead of 0, the library would allow the resolution of pathnames at or below the specified mountpoint.
Looking at the relevant fields, we see ioflag, mode, sflag, and access, which tell us how the resource was opened.
The path_len parameter tells us how many bytes the pathname takes; the actual pathname appears in the path parameter. Note that the pathname that appears is not /sample_fsys/spud, as you might expect, but instead is just spud — the message contains only the pathname relative to the resource manager's mountpoint. This simplifies coding because you don't have to skip past the mountpoint name each time, the code doesn't have to know what the mountpoint is, and the messages will be a little bit shorter.
Note also that the pathname will never have relative (. and ..) path components, nor redundant slashes (e.g. spud//stuff) in it — these are all resolved and removed by the time the message is sent to the resource manager.
The binding that takes place after the name is validated requires that every path that's handled has its own attribute structure passed to iofunc_open_default(). Unexpected behavior will result if the wrong attribute is bound to the pathname that's provided.
When the _IO_READ handler is called, it may need to return data for either a file (if S_ISDIR (ocb->attr->mode) is false) or a directory (if S_ISDIR (ocb->attr->mode) is true). We've seen the algorithm for returning data, especially the method for matching the returned data's size to the smaller of the data available or the client's buffer size.
A similar constraint is in effect for returning directory data to a client, except we have the added issue of returning block-integral data. What this means is that instead of returning a stream of bytes, where we can arbitrarily package the data, we're actually returning a number of struct dirent structures. (In other words, we can't return 1.5 of those structures; we always have to return an integral number.) The dirent structures must be aligned on 4-byte boundaries in the reply.
In some filesystems, the d_offset member is used to identify the directory entry itself; in others, it's the offset of the next directory entry. For a disk-based filesystem, this value might be the actual offset into the on-disk directory structure.
The d_reclen member contains the size of this directory entry and any other associated information (such as an optional struct stat structure appended to the struct dirent entry; see below).
So in our io_read handler, we need to generate a number of struct dirent entries and return them to the client. If we have a cache of directory entries that we maintain in our resource manager, it's a simple matter to construct a set of IOVs to point to those entries. If we don't have a cache, then we must manually assemble the directory entries into a buffer and then return an IOV that points to that.
Returning the optional struct dirent_extra_stat along with the struct dirent entry can improve efficiency.
The dirent structures must be aligned on 4-byte boundaries, and the dirent_extra_stat structures on 8-byte boundaries. The d_reclen member of the struct dirent must contain the size of both structures, including any space necessary for the pathname and alignment. There must be no more than seven bytes of alignment filler.
The client has to check for extra data by using the _DEXTRA_*() macros (see the entry for readdir() in the QNX Neutrino Library Reference .) If this check fails, the client will need to call lstat() or stat() explicitly. For example, ls -l checks for extra _DTYPE_LSTAT information; if it isn't present, ls calls lstat(). The ls -L command checks for extra _DTYPE_STAT information; if it isn't present, ls calls stat().


A young Bahraini woman who was arrested after reciting an anti-government poem to demonstrators in the Gulf kingdom said she was beaten, electrocuted and threatened with sexual assault while in custody.
Ayat al-Qurmezi, 20, became one of the symbols of the protests that hit the center of the Bahraini capital, Manama in February and March. After she was arrested, reports circulated that she had been whipped and even at one point raped and killed, leading to an improvement in her conditions and her release on Wednesday evening.
Greeted by a crowd of hundreds of people at her home, she told her family she had not been sexually assault but threatened as well as being electrocuted with clips attached to her face.
She also denied that she had committed treason by attacking the king, saying she wanted reform not revolution. "The demand isn't to overthrow the regime, but we want a real constitutional monarchy," she said to reporters.
Miss al-Qurmezi, a member of the Shia majority who was at teacher training college when the protests began in February, was filmed reciting poems to a huge crowd at Pearl Roundabout, the epicenter of the demonstrations.
One featured a conversation between Satan and King Hamad in which they outlined the complaints of the opposition, mostly Shia calling for the Sunni royal family and elite to share power.
After her family received threats, she gave herself up to the authorities in March and put in a narrow cell at a police station. Meanwhile, Bahrain security forces backed by troops from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates dispersed the protesters. Altogether, about 30 people were killed, while four more protesters died in custody.
"She was beaten with a hose and electrocuted," Miss al-Qurmezi's brother, Yusuf, told The Daily Telegraph on Thursday. "They put the clips on her lips and on other parts of her face.
State media and pro-government activists, mostly Sunnis, attacked her and claimed she had incited racial hatred, by insulting naturalized Bahrainis and Indian residents, and called for violence against the king. She was jailed for a year last month by a military court.
Miss al-Qurmezi said she remained under house arrest and although released early the charges on which she had been jailed had not been dropped. "I hope Bahrain can move away from the crisis to a transition into a better future, without discrimination or sectarianism," she said.
Hundreds of people were detained following the crackdown, including more than 40 doctors and nurses from the main Al-Salmaniya Hospital. Eight leading activists have also been handed life imprisonment.
However, the government has been attempting to restore its reputation in recent weeks, returning trials to the civilian courts, announcing a "national dialogue" with the opposition, and commissioning a high level panel of international human rights experts to conduct an inquiry into the events of February and March.
This entry was posted on November 9, 2011, 4:19 pm and is filed under Bahrain, Breeze Uprisings, Parion Gulf, Parion News. You can follow any responses to this entry through RSS 2.0. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.


We need your help to make the SECCDC a success!!
Organizations interested in sponsoring in this competition should contact Dr. Mike Whitman, Director of the KSU Center for Information Security Education for further information. (Ph: 770-499-3568 or infosec [at] kennesaw [dot] edu).
All donations to the SECCDC are tax deductible, and a receipt will be provided on request. Financial contributions can be made on our KSU Mall site HERE.
Vendors wishing to supply hardware, software or services should contact Dr. Whitman at the email above. Please note, we only accept hardware, software or services that directly contribute to the conduct of the competition. We humbly request that if licensed products are provided, that sufficient time is provided to install, test, and configure the products to support the competition. All in-kind donations must be received by January 31 for the competition cycle to be of any value to the competition.
The competition coordinators are always looking for personnel to assist as team judges and red team pen testers. However, we do not typically count employee time as an in-kind donation for purposes of event sponsorship. We welcome those who donate their time or the time of their employees. However, except in very rare circumstances, we cannot provide the benefits and recognition to individuals or organizations who volunteer employee time, as we do for other donation categories.
For those providing direct or in-kind sponsorships that meet the following thresholds, we provide the corresponding recognition and benefits.
For those organizations or individuals interested in sponsoring multiple regional CCDC events (4 or more), please contact the national CCDC coordinators HERE.
If your organization includes the SECCDC as part of its sponsorship package, we will provide a 15% discount on the sponsorship costs associated with the following levels. In addition, National Multi-Regional Sponsors receive special recognition and thanks in all signage, publications, presentations and documentation.
Platinum sponsors receive notice in all event signage, publications, notices, presentations and team registration materials. Platinum sponsors will have separate event signage prominently displayed throughout the event. In addition, Platinum sponsors may have the reception event to be dedicated to their organization, with appropriate signage and recognition OR may have dedicated event gifts* (T-Shirts, notepads) etc. including their corporate information to be provided to event participants, depending on availability. Platinum members may also include materials in team packets.
Platinum sponsors may have up to 6 representatives at the event reception to interact with participants, and a reserved recruitment table at the reception and in the building atrium during the competition.
Gold sponsors receive notice in all event signage, publications, notices, presentations and team registration materials. In addition, Gold sponsors may may have dedicated event meals, with appropriate signage and recognition, and may include materials in team packets.
Gold sponsors may have up to 4 representatives at the event reception to interact with participants, and a reserved recruitment table at the reception.
Silver sponsors receive notice in all event signage, publications, notices and presentations and team registration materials. In addition, Silver sponsors may include materials in the team packets.
Silver sponsors may have up to 2 representatives at the event reception to interact with participants.
Bronze sponsors receive notice in all event signage, publications, notices and presentations and team registration materials.
Bronze sponsors may request copies of team resumes after the event, however, they do not participate in on-site recruiting activities.
Event sponsors receive a link on the event website, and mention in the event opening and closing presentation.
Special thanks to the National CCDC and the University of Texas, San Antonio's Center for Infrastructure Assurance and Security for their endorsement and support for this competition.


text:
Is The New York Times Gearing Up For More Clinton Warfare?
Maureen Dowd Pens Her 100th Column Referencing "Lewinsky"
Written by Eric Boehlert
Published 03/16/15 12:23 PM EDT
Typing up her latest scornful, fill-in-the-blank sermon about Hillary Clinton -- the kind Maureen Dowd has been churning out robotically for two decades (only the "scandal" topic changes) -- the New York Times columnist actually began her latest missive by likening the Clintons to the Iranian regime. A few paragraphs later, Dowd had managed to segue to perhaps her favorite topic: Bill Clinton's distant sex life. In fact, the March 14 column became Dowd's 100th that contained a "Lewinsky" reference, according to a review of Dowd's columns in the Nexis database.
Dowd's fixation may be something of an outlier at the Times. Who else would reference an extramarital affair in one hundred different columns? But Dowd clearly does represent the Times' larger, institutional and never-ending personal antagonism toward Bill and Hillary Clinton. It's been a Times-sponsored grudge match that goes back more than two decades. (Times publisher Arthur Sulzberger Jr. once told Clinton the paper had adopted a "tough love" policy towards his presidency. "I've seen the tough," Clinton quipped. "Where's the love?") And now that enmity has been awakened for the recent Hillary Clinton email saga.
Has that contempt fueled the Times' often sloppy coverage lately? "The real controversy isn't about politics or regulations," wrote Kurt Eichenwald in Newsweek, offering up a detailed critique of the Times' email reporting. "It's about journalism and the weak standards employed to manufacture the scandal du jour."
For instance, note that in its March 2 report about Clinton's emails, the one that ignited the so-called scandal, The New York Times suggested Clinton "may have violated federal requirements" through her use of a non-government email address while serving as secretary of state." It was that hint of criminality that first gave the story so much pop in the press.
But it turns out that hint of criminality was invented by the Times newsroom, as several news outlets have since confirmed that Clinton did nothing illegal with her email account. (Ten days later, the Times got around to making that point itself.)
And that's the pattern we've seen unfold for twenty-plus years at the Times. With the bogus pursuits of Whitewater, the Loral spy satellites story, would-be spy Wen Ho Lee, and now Hillary Clinton's emails, the Times uncorks supposedly blockbuster allegations against a Clinton that are based on vague reporting that later turns out to be flimsy, but not before the rest of the Beltway media erupts in a guttural roar (led by sanctimonious Times columnists), and not before Republicans launch investigations intended to destroy the Clintons politically.
Last week, the Times' Patrick Healy wrote that the news media is emerging as Hillary Clinton's toughest political opponent. Indeed, the Times, once again, remains at the front of the charge.
Since the email story broke, Times columnist have published a series of Clinton condemnations, often couched in oddly personal terms. (i.e. She's "prickly" and her "forced smile" is "practically cemented in place.") Yet as Media Matters noted, in the wake of the 2007 email scandal when the Bush White House lost millions of private account emails that were sought by Congressional investigators, not a single Times columnist weighed in on the topic, let alone condemned Republicans and their reckless or secretive ways.
Meanwhile, note this Times-created illustration that was recently used to depict the email story, where Hillary Clinton, the former first lady, U.S. senator and secretary of state, was actually portrayed as the Wicked Witch of the East, crushed by a smartphone.
Who does that?
Are Bill and Hillary Clinton uniquely powerful politicians and private citizens whose actions ought to be closely scrutinized? Absolutely. Did the Times need to publish two stand-alone news articles about the Clintons' summer rental plans in 2013? It did not. Did the Times need to interview "some 50 people" in a creepy effort to suss out the status of the Clinton marriage in 2006? It did not. But this is what the Times does and what it's always done, too often portraying the Clintons as relentlessly selfish and calculating phonies. And Republicans have cheered the Times every step of the way.
For a new generation of reporters and commentators, it might be hard to grasp the truly toxic relationship that existed in the 1990s between the Times and the most popular two-term Democratic president in half a century. But it was pervasive. (Note that a handful of key exceptions within the Times fought back.)
That kind of weird invective seemed to infect the Times' reporting and led the newsroom astray again and again and again, as the paper oversold stories in a concerted effort to make the Clintons look bad.
For instance, does this critique sound familiar?
"[The Times] rushed into this," suggests Steve Schwartz, publisher of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. "This story was given to them and nobody else and they decided to run it without thinking through what they were doing. They created the illusion of something that just wasn't there and ignored the other evidence that painted a different picture."
Sounds like the Times' original Clinton email story, right? The one that omitted fundamental facts that should have been included to provide context.
But the above quote is actually from an article I wrote 15 years about how the New York Times railroaded Los Alamos scientist Wen Ho Lee; how the paper portrayed him as a Chinese spy, and suggested the Clinton administration had let him roam free while the communist sympathizer stole vital U.S. secrets.
The initial Lee hysteria was virtually sponsored by the New York Times, which was eventually forced to publish a long mea culpa in an attempt to explain how the paper got the spy story so wrong.
Hint: The Times got the story so wrong because it tried to oversell a Clinton scandal. Today, the pattern persists.
The New York Times gets trees wrong — and just repeats the right-wing playbook against Build Back Better
The New York Times has a short memory of "political reality"
Article 11/05/21 1:53 PM EDT
Media pundits unfairly rush to pin Democratic loss in Virginia governor's race on progressives