In the process of value determination (or other economic index) of vessel or other real asset of the marine company's property complex based on comparable sales approach there is a simple and rather affordable way to the apply the statistical regressions on the basis of similarity with analogues at the level of specific indexes as the alternative to searching of analogues and introducing of adjustments for the analogues' values.
The comparison signs (that is, a similarity with analogues) should be taken into account while creating of statistical regressions according to analogues.
– Technological (microeconomic) conditions that are the functional or structural characteristics of similarity with analogues; the corresponding units of comparison are used, which are, on the other hand, the identification signs of a commercial vessel (see Chapter 3) or another asset of the marine company.
Concerning the features of the application of the comparable sales application for an evaluation of the marine commercial vessels, some explanation is required.
Definition of valid data of the commercial vessels–analogues is one of the key questions when using the comparable sales approach.
Apparently, the applied data about the analogues' values demand mutual check that is correlation of data – the specific indexes determined from the various sources for the objects of the same class.
For the reliability criterion for this reason, can possibly satisfy the statistical population of market data in the whole, instead of each of analogues as a part of this population, taken separately.
The requirements for reliability of the used data of vessels–analogues' reliability and the necessity for this reason of statistical sets extensive enough lead to expediency of the similarity analysis at the level of specific indexes with the account the distinctions of units of comparison values for the majority of vessels–analogues and for an evaluated vessel.
As effective option of the comparable sales approach application for the vessel evaluation can serve the regression analysis, in the frameworks of which the similarity of analogues and an evaluated vessel is reached at the level of specific indexes.
While using of the statistical sets of commercial vessels–analogues' values, that for example, have similar purpose of use not only the analogues coinciding with the evaluated vessel by the units of comparison are of informational importance, but also the other vessels of a used set since all the applied statistical set defines the regression characteristics, that is, the regression dependence of the vessel value on a unit of comparison can be restored to some extent of proximity on the basis of data not only (and not much) of the analogues which have coincided with the evaluated vessel in a narrow interval of the values of comparison units, that is the eventuality, but of any analogues from the used set. Therefore it is inexpedient to reduce the used statistical set in view of commercial vessel evaluation objectivity the comparable sales approach.
In an opposite option, in case of reduction of the used statistical set to the analogues which have occasionally coincided with the evaluated vessel by the units of comparison value, there is an illusion of evaluation accuracy increase, that actually testifies the loss of part of the information about the value and the loss of objectivity of the evaluation by the comparable sales approach.
The reliability of data about value of analogues is characterized by objectivity (authenticity) of data and accuracy. A dominating condition, apparently, is authenticity.
In case of accumulation of the statistical information on vessels values, to put it more exactly, about the specific values related to the units of comparison, the following circumstance appears: the authenticity of data is promoted by the increase of data quantity, the significant spread of values is thus characteristic.
Due to the specified reasons the objective data about the vessel value, suitable for use within the limits of the comparable sales approach at the level of specific indexes similarity, as a rule, are presented as statistical regression and characterized by a significant spread.
When using the analogues and the comparable sales approach for marine commercial vessel evaluation it is necessary to consider the following features.
1. The market of vessels is of international character, and the original information is presented mainly in English with use of the accepted symbols.
Besides, the offers of the marine commercial vessels sale in various states are also usually presented in English for the purpose of possibility of selling abroad.
It is impossible to reduce the volume of the information at the expense of the quality of evaluation for the purpose of convenience reading or to the limited only by the data in Russian (or other local language) – these data concerning offers to marine commercial vessels sale are insufficient.
2. Marine commercial vessels do not possess the stereotypeness as in case of serial equipment (for example, vehicles, computers, office equipment) or as the serial real estate (apartments, offices and so forth). Practically there are always structural or other distinctions (age, technical, functional) besides the analogues, including the marine commercial vessels of close classes. Therefore, it is incorrect to limit yourself to a small number of analogues for use within the frameworks of the comparable sales approach, and it is required to reflect the market in general. It can be done, if an evaluation based on comparable sales approach and the similarity analysis are made at the level of statistical generalizations, instead of introduction of adjustments to a limited number of analogues that usually is recommended for the serial equipment estimation based on comparable sales approach.
Thus, the vessel value can be determined on statistics basis by the marketing researches and the set of analogues based on comparable sales approach according to its methodological concept by the Federal Standard # 2 «The purpose of evaluation and concepts of value (FSO № 2)», approved by the Order of Ministry of the Economical Development of Russia July 20, 2007 № 255 (or by any comparable standard): «the market value of the estimated object is understood as the most probable price …». And evaluation probability is provided with probabilistic calculations and formalization of the regressions, and use of one or several isolated analogues for an evaluation of a commercial vessel with introduction of adjustments to analogues' values, usually is not a determination satisfying the Standard, as in addition, it is required to prove, that values of analogues corresponds to their most probable price.
Anyhow, the statistical research and formalization of the regressions for an evaluation of the probabilistic nature of analogues' values is required. And it to a full degree concerns an evaluation based on comparable sales approach of vessels or other real assets of the marine company, which do not possess stereotypeness as the serial equipment, in which relation the probabilistic nature of the separate analogues prices proves to be true by their stereotypeness.
– Use of regression dependences for the vessel evaluation.
– While using the regressions, the multiplication by the unit of comparison of an evaluated vessel is made.
The other mathematical action, reversible when working out the statistical regression dependence and when using it for evaluation based on comparable sales approach and not only multiplication can also be applied.
1. Units of comparison of a commercial vessel (her similarity with analogues).
2. Similarity at the level of specific indexes for vessel evaluation based on comparable sales approach.
3. Reliability of data (objectivity and accuracy) for the evaluation based on comparable sales approach.
4. Advantages of use of regression dependences for determination of the most probable values.
5. Features of application of comparable sales approach for marine commercial vessel evaluation.
6. Sequence of adjustments application for vessel evaluation based on comparable sales approach at a level of similarity by specific indexes.
– The property of an imposing appearance or conformity of statistics data for requirements of the investor (that published or, for example, presented in the Internet, data about vessel value in binding to characteristics correspond to the requirements of the consumer and are sufficient for him).
In the process of value determination by the comparable sales approach it is also required to consider, that the characteristics of each vessel (evaluated or vessels – analogues) are much more closely interconnected among themselves, than, for example, similarity characteristics when estimating a real estate.
Thus, many of differences of evaluated vessel from analogues can be natural consequences of one of differences. In this situation introduction of adjustments for each of difference can result, in essence, in the excessive repeated account of the adjustment by one of differences which predetermines the others.
The given possible situation with the excessive repeated account of one of adjustments should be considered a methodological error.
To except the specified error when evaluating the vessel based on comparable sales approach it is reasonable not to reduce all adjustments to one sequence, and to carry out independent calculations of evaluation with an adjustment of each of differences. And at the final part of evaluation based on comparable sales approach it is necessary to determine the arithmetic average or the weighed average value for all of calculations; within the limits of each of them the adjustment only for one of differences from analogue is introduced.
Except the specified criteria, in order to choose the characteristic of comparison, it is necessary to consider also, that set (number and structure) of the units of comparison for the vessel evaluation or other real asset of marine company's property complex should correspond to a set of indexes presented by marketing researches, that is it is necessary to start with the assumption, that the published sets of characteristics of the offered for sale vessels (or other real assets of the marine company), along with the published values, correspond to notions of participants of the market concerning the structure of characteristics important for value determination.
There is no sense to recommend the electronic addresses of the broker companies sites of vessels sale as these addresses and data on sites vary over the time. It is enough to use search machines of the Internet and keywords: «ship for sale», «reefer vessel for sale», «oil tanker for sale» etc.
To use the information of vessels values, marine engineering and ocean technology, for example the data determined by the Internet network, it is necessary to understand symbols and to understand the special terms.
The most widespread abbreviations the sites about vessels sale the following: GRT, NRT – the Gross Register Tonnage and the Net Register Tonnage, the abstract characteristics of volume defined by the rules of the International Convention on measurement vessels 1969; DW – deadweight; EPS – effective power of vessel power–plant; LOA – the vessel length over all (Length over all), etc.
It should be taken into consideration, that indexes of the gross and the net register tonnage in information data bases are specified in units corresponding to so–called English ton (usually is called – gross ton) which can mean both a mass unit, and volume unit, and it is required to consider a context correct to define the dimension correctly. Usually unit «ton» or «gross ton» means the volume of 2.832 cubic m, that is 100 cubic feet, and «tonne» is the weight of 1000 kg.
Besides, it is necessary to understand symbols of various monetary units and dimension, and also to know, that the fractional part of numerals in English language is separated by a point, instead of a comma (that for example is accepted in Russian), and decimal categories of numbers can be separated by commas, and to know a number of other conventions.
It is required to know English quite well to understand technical information (if English is not a native language). In other words, to use information databases for vessels valuation one should possess certain erudition.
At the same time it is strongly advised not to narrow the marketing researches only to sites in Russian (or other local language), as the basic part of market data is thus can be missed and the quality of evaluation worsens oven if the information of Russian language sites (or other language except English) is easier to understand.
1. Criteria of the choice of units of comparison for vessel evaluation.
2. Contradiction of the possible repeated account when making consecutive introduction of adjustments on dependent units of comparison.
3. Recommendations of the independent account of adjustments applied to the units of comparison for vessel value estimation.
4. Features of application of search machines of the Internet for estimation based on comparable sales approach.
The deadweight DW (difference of full cargo and empty displacement) can be one of units of comparison number for marine commercial vessels of many classes.
3. Tonnage belongs to a number of the important characteristics of the vessels of some classes along with deadweight, however, as the specific cubic capacity of the cargo is usually known, if necessary, the expert substitution of the variable (tonnage by cargo capacity and further by deadweight) does not cause difficulties.
The power of the vessel's main engine or holds capacity, or other index depending on the purpose of the vessel can be chosen as a second unit of comparison.
– For passenger vessels – the passengers capacity and the operational speed.
Units of comparison (tab. 4) for commercial vessel of one or another class can be chosen using the information given above, on the basis of theoretical assumptions, expert judgments, with the account the statistical information research.
For commercial vessels of many classes in the sale announcements the deadweight DW and capacity (or register tonnage) are indicated.
The main dimensions, the operational velocity, the main engine power can be named as the additional characteristics.
In the third column of tab. 4 the generalized recommendations concerning choice of units of comparison are presented for the vessel value estimation.
The type of dependence which can be recommended for statistical approximation of the marketing researches data is offered as a part of three factors: general factor; factor that includes a unit of comparison from among vessel characteristics; and factor depending on vessel age and characterizing depreciation.
To build a regression it is necessary to adhere to a certain mathematical dependence form which, in turn, can be defined, investigating the formal–logic properties of the modeled value characteristic.
1. Expediency of use of deadweight is used as unit of comparison for vessel value estimation.
2. The variants combinations of units of comparison for commercial vessels classes.
3. Structure of dependence for statistical approximation of the marketing researches data.
To define mathematical form of the statistical regression concerning depreciated assets, such assets, the value of which considerably decreases over the time, for example marine commercial vessels, it is expedient to use the mathematical concept of present value potential.
The mathematical potential dMV/dt of present value MV has a dimension of net operating income cash flow of NOI = I – C.
The concept of the present value mathematical potential is based on the concept of the income approach. Recording to this concept the value is equated to the present value of a predicted cash flow of net operating income NOI. Accordingly, the value per a unit time (in particular, per year) decreases to the value of net operating income received per time unit (i.e. to the present value of net operating income). Certainly, all specified indexes are defined in present values.
– Neglects of the adjustment for middle of the year of the present value of the discounted cash flow determination under the account of the distributed payment within a year – for the formula of present values of cash flow based on use of the finite sums.
Certainly, all the value indexes must be determined in their present value.
– The reactive part which characterizes the influence of net operating income NOI for the rest of the periods within life time T on the asset value.
Since the value of the property complex increases at an innovative stage of investment when the profit have invested into real assets (instead of profit deducing in the financial form out of turnover); the reactive part of present value potential of the property complex is positive at an innovative stage.
For the isolated assets, which are going down in value in due time, the reactive part of the present value potential is negative.
Apparently, the reactive part of the value potential of the material property value potential is positive for separate classes growing in value over the time, for example, historical monuments, antiquarian valuables, artworks etc.
However, the approaches of estimation of material property of the specified classes evaluation which are not industrial assets, are beyond the given methodological subject.
The analogy is pertinent. The concept of value is an economic analogue of the physical concept of «potential» (in dynamic subject of the mechanics, electro-mechanics, hydromechanics and thermodynamics and in other «mechanics»).
The potential of present value characterizing the productive and spent parts of separate asset value can be presented as a finite difference NOI (Δt) - dMV / dt, and for the property complex growing in value – as a sum NOI (Δt) + dMV / dt.
The first addend NOI (Δt) is an analogue of the physical concept of kinetic energy and the second one dMV/dt is an analogue of potential energy.
The potential of the present value of commercial vessel or any isolated asset which is going down in value over the time is negative, and the property complex of the marine company at innovative stage of its development, and also unidentifiable intangible asset of the marine company which is created at an innovative stage of the investment project, is positive.
The potential equation of the value of the acting company's property complex is MV × i = dMV / dt.
The value potential dMV/dt is negative for the investor if the present estimation MV decreases owing to asset use (owing to depreciation and functional obsolescence of commercial vessel).
The sign of present value potential, adhered with the net operating income in the active part, depends on macroeconomic property of life time T.
The life time is limited by economic obsolescence that is by economic feasibility of updating rather by physical ageing of commercial vessel or other isolated asset of the marine company, how much.
As, unlike the structured set of assets – the acting company's property complex for any isolated asset – the life time is limited, the separate asset is going down in value, and business as a hole grows in value of assets updating process.
For the real assets property complex of the marine company raising in value over the time annually on the present value of capitalized net operating income, and every year – for the present value of the net operating income which is received annually, unlike the depreciated (also for the present value of the net operating income received per time unit) isolated asset, the mathematical potential dMV/dt of the present value MV has formal properties of cash flow NOI. The mathematical potential dMV/dt of property complex present value MV is positive.
As the mathematical potential corresponds to the time derivative dMV/dt, present value MV is determined by the potential integration.
And discounting by the Euler number exponential function (e = 2,71828283...), defined for the set of assets by the solution of the potential equation (4.1) of growing value, at small values of the discounting rate i is the exponential function mathematical property and it is defined below (Chapter 13) on the basis of the mathematical properties analysis of risks probabilistic concept.
The surface presented on the graph (fig. 4.1) characterizes the asset depreciation over the time depending on commercial risks – discounting rates, that is, the depreciation on a relative value to a new asset value.
Not applying for severity of the statement numerical experiment with the statistical sets of the marketing researches has shown, that the parametrical formula presented above (4.4) in many cases corresponds to the best mathematical approximation of vessels values data.
The characteristic of comparison Х is chosen expertly with the account the considered recommendations (see article 4.3).
To calculate the factors a1, a2 и a3, and also to estimate the life time T and the discounting rate i («cleared» of external risks) with use of the accepted forms of the regression, statistical information of marketing researches results concerning the value is processed.
The deadweight DW is chosen as a unit of comparison for the universal dry–cargo vessel. When using deadweight DW as a characteristic for data of marketing researches processing by the formula (4.5), it is determined, that approximation factors are: a1 = 0.30, a2 = 1.25, a3 = – 0.000065.
There is a dependence of statistical observations of the value of the universal dry–cargo vessel relation to deadweight MV / DW in dependence on age t and the graph of statistical regression on the graph (fig. 4.2). For statistical generalizations of the vessel value marketing researches in some cases it is expedient to use a logarithmic scale of ordinates axis.
It is necessary to explain that the index of life time T determined on the basis of given marketing researches approximation is evaluated on the basis of economic methodology on the bases of the chosen class vessels data, offered for sale, but does not characterize structural durability of vessels.
, thousand US dollars .
Some useful information: the average value of age of the universal dry–cargo vessels offered for sale makes 22.5 year, deadweight – 10856 tonne, draught – 7.12 m.
The discounting rate i counted by the market extraction from statistics and marketing researches is released from external risks and retrospective.
According to the discounting rate i the efficiency of investments into construction and productive operation of the universal dry–cargo vessels determined by the market extraction method makes approximately i≈ 8.5 %.
When substituting the specified value of the discounting rate i into the factor in formulas (4.5, 4.6) the greatest conformity of regression with the data of marketing researches is reached if deadweight of the vessel DW is used as the characteristic.
1. Formal analogy of economic concept of value to physical concept «potential».
2. Potential equation of value.
3. Sign of the present value potential for an asset which value is going down with the increase of years; the asset life time.
4. Depreciation of the isolated real asset over the time, the isolated assets growing in value with the increase of years (examples).
5. Solution of the potential equation for the isolated asset going down in value through the time (formulas derivation).
6. Property complex of real assets value capitalization in the time.
7. Solution of the potential equation of the property complex growing value with the positive potential of value (the discount formula of present value capitalization of own property).
8. Form of a value dependence on the vessel age recommended for approximation of statistical observations when formalizing of the regressions.
9. Recommended parametrical form of dependence of new vessel value on her characteristics.
10. Recommended form of statistical regression dependence of the vessel value on the characteristics and the age, based on use of discounting by the Euler number exponential function (the formula derivation).
11. Determination of the economic life time index and the retrospective discounting rate released from the external risks by the analysis of statistical regression dependence of value on vessel years.
The market analysis of commercial vessels is based on statistical data processing.
The marketing researches of the vessels values must be conducted using the Internet sites of the broker companies.
According to the data of commercial vessels offered for sale and construction the division of the most widespread classes is presented (fig. 4.3).
The universal dry–cargo vessels are most numerous classes according to offers to sale, despite the fact that tankers have the greatest total tonnage.
The deadweight DW and holds volume W are chosen as units of comparison of the refrigeration vessel.
When using the deadweight DW as the unit of comparison while processing the statistical data of the marketing researches statistical data it is determined that approximation factors are: a1 = 1.585, a2 = 1.255, a3= – 0.0001.
The graphs (fig. 4.4) of statistical observations of the refrigeration vessel value relation to deadweight MV/DW in dependence on age t and statistical regression are shown below.
When using the holds volume W as the characteristic of comparison of the refrigeration vessel while processing the statistical data of marketing researches it is determined, that approximation factors are: a1 = 1.500, a2 = 1.255, a3 = – 0.00011.
One important remark to the formula (4.11) is: the capacity of cargo holds of the refrigeration vessel in databases is presented in cubic feet in some cases; for formula application the correct transformation of dimensions is required, keeping in mind that 1 cubic foot corresponds to 0.02832 cubic meters.
The graphs of statistical observations of the vessel value relation to holds volume MV/W in dependence on age t and statistical regression are shown below (fig. 4.5).
Some useful information: the average value of the refrigeration vessels age offered for sale makes 18.9 years, deadweight – 4990 tonne, hold volume – 6400 cubic meters.
The efficiency of investments into construction and productive operation of the refrigeration vessel makes 9.0 %, that is, the discounting ratefree from external risk is i ≈ 0.09.
When substituting the specified value of the discounting rate i in to the factor the greatest conformity of approximation results with data of marketing researches is reached.
The economic life time of cargo refrigeration vessels according to marketing researches makes approximately 50 years.
The specified value of life time is determined by extrapolation of regression dependences to its crossing with the axis of abscises for using in the structure of regression dependences of value on age.
Actually the life time of commercial vessel is a little bit less than the index of economic life time and corresponds to the value reduction below the scrap value.
The average weighed value of refrigeration vessel structural durability makes approximately 45 years.
As a characteristic of comparison of the multi–purpose dry–cargo vessel one should use the index of the commercial vessel length and breadth (L×B), product which characterizes the deck and hold area, that is, capacity of a commercial vessel by the floor space.
When using the indicator of commercial vessel length and breadth (L×B) product as the unit of comparison for processing of the marketing researches statistical data it is determined, that approximation factors are: a1 = 0.125, a2 = 1.90, a3 = – 0.0035.
The statistical observations of the multi–purpose dry–cargo vessel value relation to the index of commercial vessel length and breadth product (L×B), that is MV/(L×B), in dependence on age t and the index of the length and breadth product (L×B), and also the graph of statistical regression are shown below (fig. 4.6).
On the basis of the discounting rate i value selection by market extraction method with the account other considered assumptions concerning statistical regression and the unit of comparison, it is determined that discounting rate i value free from external risk when investing in construction and productive operation of the multi–purpose dry–cargo vessel makes about 6 %, that is i = 0.060.
From the statistical observations of data about value of multi–purpose dry–cargo vessels by extrapolation of statistical regression to crossing of the axis of abscisses When using the index of commercial vessel length and breadth (L×B) product as the unit of comparison, it is determined that the economic life time of the vessel makes about 50 years.
The structural durability of the multi–purpose dry–cargo vessel is a little bit less, than the economic life time specified above and corresponds to the value reduction below the scrap value that makes approximately 45 years.
Reference data: the average value of vessels age offered for sale used for transportation of bulk cargoes makes 20.6 years, deadweight – 15775 tonne, draught – 7.51 m.
The value of the discounting rate i free from external risks for investing into construction and productive operation of vessels for transportation bulk cargoes makes i≈ 6.3 %.
On the graph (fig. 4.7) the statistical observations and the regression dependence of the vessel value for transportation bulk cargoes are presented.
On the schedule (see fig. 4.8) the statistical observations and the regression dependence of value of crude cargo tanker are presented.
Some useful information: the average value of the age of the crude cargo tankers offered for sale makes 21.2 years, the lengths – 109 m, deposits – 6.6 m, deadweight – 13400 tonne, holds capacity of bulk tanks – 28500 cubic meters.
The discounting rate for investments into construction and productive operation of crude–oil tankers free from external risk is i ≈ 9.2 %.
While making marketing researches concerned with offers for construction and sale of rolling cargo vessels it is possible to use deadweight or capacity as the characteristic of comparison.
To preserve uniformity with the results of researches of cargo vessels the deadweight DW is used for cargo vessels of other classes.
It is considered also, that for rolling cargo vessels the relation of capacity to deadweight is basically a property of the cargo, instead of a vessel characteristic, and it makes (according to the studied statistical set) on the average 1.80 cubic meters/tonne, taking into account also the possibility to take the cargo on open deck.
The statistical observations and the regression dependence of rolling cargo vessel value on years are shown on the graph below (fig. 4.9).
For reference: the average age of the rolling cargo vessels offered for sale makes 22.9 year, deadweight – 6029 tonnes.
The discounting rate for investments into construction and productive operation of rolling cargo vessels free from external risk received by data processing of marketing researches was determined as i ≈ 7.0 %.
The results of marketing research of rolling cargo vessels' value are presented on the graph (fig. 4.10).
– Area index corresponding to the product of commercial vessel length (length over all, dimensional, designated L, of vessels offered for sale it is also designated as LOA) and the breadth of the vessel – (L×B).
When using the net register tonnage NRT as the unit of comparison for data processing of statistical observations it is determined that approximation factors are: a1 = 1.335, a2 = 1.25, a3 = – 0.00035.
According to the statistical observations and extrapolation of statistical regression to its crossing with the axis of abscises, when using the net register tonnage NRT as the characteristic of comparison of marine steel fishing vessel, it is determined that the life time makes 55 years.
On the basis of selection the discounting rate i free from external risk by the market extraction method is determined that is the rate value of investment in construction and productive operation of fishing vessel makes about 2 %, i.e. i ≈ 0.02, if value is determined per the unit of net register tonnage.
While substituting the given discounting rate i the precise correspondence with the result of marketing researches investigation is achieved in case if the net capacity NRT is used as a unit of comparison.
The figure of statistical observations of the fishing vessel value relation to net register tonnage MV/NRT in dependence on age t and tonnage NRT, and also the graph of the statistical regression are shown below (fig. 4.11).
When the main engine power Ne is chosen as the unit of comparison the processing of the statistical data of the marketing researches has shown that the approximation factors are: a1 = 0.22, a2 = 1.23, a3 = 0.0.
On the basis of selection of statistical observations results of approximation it is determined, that the value of the discounting rate free from external risks i, while investing in construction and productive operation of fishing vessel, makes nearby 1 %, i.e. i ≈ 0.01 – for an option of value estimation per the main engine power unit.
The figure of statistical observations of the fishing vessel value relation to main engine power MV/Ne in dependence on age t and main engine power Ne and also the graph of statistical regression are shown below (fig. 4.12).
With the area index (the product of the vessel length over all and the vessel breadth – L×B) as the unit of comparison for processing of the statistical observations data it is determined that the approximation factors are: a1 = 1.09, a2 = 1.25, a3 = – 0.00026.
Using extrapolation of statistical regression to the crossing with the axis of abscises (with the area index – product of the commercial vessel length and vessel breadth – L×B) chosen as a unit of comparison it is determined that the indicator of economic life time is equal 53.5 years.
On the basis of selection it is determined that the value of the discounting rate free from external risks i, when investing into construction and productive operation of the fishing vessel, makes about 2.3 %, that is i≈ 0.023 – or option of the value estimation per the main engine power unit.
The graph of statistical observations of the fishing vessel value ratio to index of area MV/(L×B) in dependence on age t and the index of area L×B, and also the figure of the statistical regression are shown below (fig. 4.13).
Some useful information: the average value of age of fishing vessels offered for sale is 20.0 years, the lengths – 40.5 m, the breadth – 8.8 m, the main engine power – 1790 kW, tonnage – 6316.4.
The average weighed value of the discounting rate free from external risk for investments into the construction and productive operation of the marine steel fishing vessel determined by the market extraction method from the set of values: 2.0 %, 1.0 %, 2.3 % which correspond to use of tonnage, power of main engine and the index of area as units of comparison to create regression dependences of value on age, makes approximately 2.0 %.
The average weighed value of the marine steel fishing vessel life time determined on the basis of vessels values analysis of marketing data is determined from the set of values: 55.0, 50.0, 53.5 years and it is approximately 53.0 years. The specified values of life time are used in the structure of regression dependences of value on age and received by extrapolation of regression dependences to their crossing with the axis of abscises. According to the marketing researches the average value of the fishing vessels offered for sale, which are more than 50 years old, is less than the scrap value.
The life time determined by extrapolation of regression dependences of the vessel value on age before crossing with the axis of abscises should be estimated only as an element of regression and a datum for value determination by independent approaches since the real life time is also connected with arising risks and actual writing off the operating vessel for scrap is in a greater degree a result of risks estimation. This fact shows that for an operating vessel the dependence of value on age should to be correlated methodologically with the life time estimation according to the statistical regression with the account life time with the age of the vessel approaching its upper limit the error of estimation grows and at the maximum of vessel years the error of estimation becomes proportionate to the value itself.
The methodological value of the regression analysis of statistical observations of vessels' value marketing data is in the fact that keeping in mind the stated concepts and recommendations the same analysis can be done for other classes of vessel (or in case of macroeconomic changes) when the results must be used for estimation based on comparable sales approach and also for determination of life time and interest rate free from external risks (retrospective) according to the discounting rate that can be applied for estimation by independent approaches.
1. Most widespread cargo vessels classes at offered to sale.
2. Cargo vessels class, offered for sale of the greatest tonnage.
3. Determination of the discounting rate free from external risks by the market extraction on the basis of the statistical approach analysis for commercial vessels classes.
4. Determination of commercial vessel life time on the basis of the regression dependence analysis.
5. Theoretical (economic) and structural durability of a commercial vessel.
6. Correlations of vessel years, life time and an error of estimation.


text:
Q: Blackberry webworks,  focus issue I am using BlackBerry WebWorks SDK 2.3.1.5 to compile a jquery based application and running on Blackberry JDE7.0 simulator
Following is the HTML code for a datetimepicker, datepicker and timepicker

            Date and Time
            <input type="datetime" id="dateandtime" />

            Date
            <input type="date" id="date" />

            Time
            <input type="time" id="time" />

After running this code, DateTime picker, Date picker and Time picker appear.
when I click on the DateTime picker the native BlackBerry DateTime picker appears and am able to select the Date and Time. Then I click on ok and the value is displayed in the respective field as text.
Now the problem arises when I click on the DateTime picker and after selecting the Date and Time instead of clicking on ok I click on cancel.
If I click on cancel, the picker goes of and then when I click the DateTime picker again it acts as a textfield instead of a DateTime picker, now I click on the Date picker it acts as textfield and I click on Time picker and it acts as textfield, now after scrolling it becomes normal and when I click on DateTime picker the DateTime picker appears, likewise the other pickers also work, but if I click on cancel instead of ok, the same problem happens again.
The problem goes after scrolling, but if I click on cancel the problem comes back.
Please help

A: It sounds like an OS bug. Unfortunately, I'm not aware of a workaround at this time.  You mentioned that scrolling eliminates the issue?  What if you had an onfocusout event listener for the date field, and auto scroll the page 1px up?  Would that 'force' the problem to go away?

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Sharing Pictures Today in the Digital Age…How about over some Spiked Chocolate Banana Bread?
In the age of digital photography, what do people do with all the pictures they are taking with their increasingly more fancy/powerful cameras? How many people just take pictures for the sake of taking pictures and then just throw them on a computer? Never to be seen again?
How many actually print out pictures? Has posting on facebook become the norm to display pictures to anyone who cares enough to click through them (unlike the living room slide shows of the past)?
Before I had this blog, my pictures were shared usually via facebook or just sat on my computer to be used as a screensaver. However, with this ability to share pictures with a larger audience, I feel what is lost is that human element.
The human element where people sit down together and go through pictures and share the stories behind them. These days when people ask me about trip pictures, I offer to send them a link to the album online even though it just feels so dismissive. Here's a link, look for yourself.
In this day and age where social networking sites allow us to share with a larger (busier) audience, does it make up for the loss of the personal behind the pictures. Is that really better?
As I mull that over, let me present to you some banana bread with a little personality.
I had some pretty ripe bananas that needed to be used (not unusual here), so I made some banana bread. I actually followed a recipe out of Joy The Baker's cookbook for Mommom's chocolate Bourbon-Spiked Banana Bread because I was really curious what a spiked banana bread tasted like.
I had no bourbon in the house, nor was I going to run out and buy a bottle for 3 tablespoons worth. I had scotch, but I wasn't sure if I wanted to crack open the $10 airplane sized bottle I had from Scotland to use as a support ingredient in banana bread. So, I did the next best thing, and just subbed in Kahlua. The Kahlua didn't add anything to the banana bread at all. It simply isn't as strong as a good bourbon. When I try this again, I think a good honey bourbon might do the trick. I tried some at a Bourbon, Beer and BBQ festival a couple years ago (where we were lucky enough to snag seats for the Founders Tasting Session), and I remember it being sweeter than all the others I tried that night. Bourbons definitely pack more punch (flavor wise, since 3 tablespoons isn't going to make the banana bread a boozy one) than Kahlua, so don't try to sub it out like I did.
Tasting mat from the Founders Tasting Session. The Siren Noire Bourbon Firkin (lower right) was my favorite…probably because it was a beer that tasted like chocolate.
When greasing and flouring your pan, I really like adding a parchment paper sling. So, butter the pan, then cut out a piece of parchment paper to fit long-way on the pan and overhangs a bit, then butter the paper and flour. It makes taking the loaf out of the pan infinitely easier. Plus it takes away that chance that chunks of bread get stuck to the bottom of the pan when you flip it out later.
In a mixer bowl, combine the butter, sugar and beat with the paddle attachment until light and fluffy.
Add in the eggs one at a time with about a minute in between each.
Stop the mixer and scrape down the sides. Add in the bananas, lemon juice and Kahlua and mix on low until all combined.
Stop the mixer and add the dry (flour mix) into the bowl all at once. Mix on slow until just about incorporated.
Take the bowl out of the mixer and by hand, stir in the chocolate chips and walnuts.
Pour into the prepped pan and into the oven for about 45 min – 1 hour, until a skewer inserted into the middle comes out clean. (mine took an hour, but only because I kind of forgot about it after hitting the timer to stop it from beeping at me).
Let it cool in the pan for about 20 minutes before taking it out and letting it cool the rest of the way on a cooling rack.
For a banana bread, it was a bit denser, but still very delicious. Since I might have left it in the oven just a touch too long, the top crisped up very nicely and was pleasantly crunchy, but not in a bad way. Like I said, I felt like there was just too much chocolate chip in it. I would be really interested in doing this again, except with real bourbon instead of just Kahlua. However, that being said, if you don't want any spirits in it, I think it would be okay to just sub in some vanilla extract.
Going back to the picture issue. Inspired by a recent Secret Santa gift given to a fellow WBC member, I decided to make a calendar with some select images that have been posted here on ChezSylvia. I'm actually really excited about it and looking forward to putting it up in my cubicle at work (I think after 3 years, I should start making my cube look a little more personal).
I'll have to share with you guys when I get it!
Christmas Lights outside the Peninsula Hotel, Hong Kong.
This entry was posted in Bread, Dessert, Uncategorized and tagged Banana Bread, Bourbon, Digital Photographs, Sharing, Social Networking. Bookmark the permalink.
6 Responses to Sharing Pictures Today in the Digital Age…How about over some Spiked Chocolate Banana Bread?
Merry Christmas Sylvia!! I going have my homemade marshmellows in my hot coco today after my stupid pregnancy glucose test!! Miss you!
Miss you too! Leeroy isn't as fun to run and chat with 🙂 I hope you enjoy the marshmallows and cookies! Merry Christmas to you and the crew!
OOh…I'll have to try mini chips. That would make it a nicer balance. Thanks!
Ugh… I hate when I don't have an ingredient for a recipe. Especially something that you would be able to taste the difference in!!


text:
Hawaii: The Place to Be
Rachna Shah
According to a recent article by Bloomberg, Hawaii has the best health care system in the United States. West Virginia is ranked last.
"Hawaiians lived two years longer than the national average of 79 years, benefiting from four decades of employer-paid insurance, generous Medicaid benefits and favorable demographics. Residents of West Virginia, which ranked last, lived three years less than the average, even though per capita health-care spending there was $9,462 compared with $7,299 for Hawaii and expenditures were equivalent to almost a quarter of the state's gross domestic product -- the highest in the U.S."
What are your thoughts on these statistics? How can West Virginia improve its healthcare system? Why has Hawaii had such success?
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-28/hawaii-is-no-1-in-u-s-health-care-west-virginia-ranks-last
Could single payer work in the US?Social determinants of healthWhen Euthanasia becomes a blessing to the health system
Levi Cannon
Could single payer work in the US?
Single-payer national health insurance is a health care system is which a single public agency organizes health care financing, but the delivery of health care would remain in private hands. Currently, the US spends $10,348 per person, which is by far the most in the world (second is Switzerland with $7,919 person.) However, the US has by no means the best health care in the would. The WHO ranks the US as the 37th best healthcare system in the world, and millions of Americans are still uninsured. Single payer countires rank highly on the list, and bringing single payer to the US would help push the number of uninsured Americans to zero. Bernie Sanders intoduced his "Medicare For All" bill to the Senate Finance Committee last year, and current bipartisan calculations estimate this healthcare system to cost the goverment $32 trillion over 10 years. https://www.mercatus.org/publications/federal-fiscal-policy/costs-national-single-payer-healthcare-system and https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/what-would-it-take-make-single-payer-health-care-reality Currently, 49% of Americans support single payer, and its popularity is rising. Could single-payer be implemented in the US, or is it too much of a challenge? Also, what systems could work better or be more feasible in the US?
asaperstein1
How do you think racism and poverty play into poor health? Do you think there is a way we could make the world more healthy without simply providng more healthcare, but instead by addressing some of the causes of poor health among the poor?
When Euthanasia becomes a blessing to the health system
One of Australia's states recently legalised voluntary euthanasia. The campaign for euthanasia was centered around the right to die with dignity and the ability to choose ones time, but what was not discussed was the pressure it would take of the healthcare system. All Australians are a member of Medicare and receive free healthcare for their entire lives. This means that the ageing population will put significant stress on the health system, as in 2013-14 persons over 65 accounted for 41% of same day hospitalisations and 39% of overnight hospitalisations. Thats not including the elderly who spend months at a time in hospital for serious treatments. Although there are many moral issues that surround euthanasia, an increase in the mortality rate of terminally ill elders may benefit Australia's health system, as awful as the idea is.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


This method starts from when the coffee beans are green and the two major steps involved is the popping and the cracking. This method is very efficient as the hot air is handy when it comes to blowing away the chaff which usually requires to be removed at this stage. Coffee roasting is a great deal in coffee manufacture and therefore a lot of investment has to be put in for making quality coffee.


PayPal today confirmed its latest acquisition, buying mobile payment start-up Card.io.
The San Francisco company's technology enables users to make payments by capturing the details from the front of their credit card with a smartphone camera. Through an app, it then sends these details to the retailer they are making the purchase from and confirms the transaction, without the user having to type in any numbers.
The mobile apps don't store the credit card details and when they are streamed to the retailer, the connection is covered by 256-bit SSL encryption for extra security.
The app is already being used by tech-savvy US companies, such as cab firms or bars, to make payments, charging $0.15 for each scan – users can top up credit to use the app, rather than make an individual payment each time.
PayPal had already worked with Card.io to integrate the technology into its PayPal Here mobile app, but decided it wanted to own the firm rather than partner with it.
"While working with [card.io], we were simply blown away by the creativity and drive of their employees," wrote Hill Ferguson, vice president of global product at PayPal, on the company's blog.
The original technology will remain available for developers so they can use it to build into their own applications, enabling PayPal to spread the word about its latest purchase without extra costs.


text:
Bill Gates Says Trump Asked Him The Difference Between HIV And HPV
MATT WEINBERGER, BUSINESS INSIDER
In a video posted by MSNBC on Thursday, Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates says that he had to explain to President Donald Trump the difference between HIV and HPV.
"He wanted to know if there was a difference HIV and HPV, so I was able to explain that those are rarely confused with each other," Gates tells an audience.
Exclusive footage obtained by All In... Bill Gates dishes on his meetings with Donald Trump. More tonight at 8PM ET. #inners pic.twitter.com/Zoehj1WTfk
— All In w/Chris Hayes (@allinwithchris) May 17, 2018
For the record:
HPV, or human papillomavirus, is a very common sexually transmitted disease that often causes no symptoms, but that can lead to an increased risk of cancer in some people.
HIV, or human immunodeficiency virus, is a virus that depresses the immune system and can lead to the onset of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), a condition that caused one million deaths in 2016, according to the United Nations.
It's not clear where or when he was speaking when the video was taken.
However, a tweet from MSNBC host Chris Hayes, whose program "All In With Chris Hayes" shared the footage, gives us a clue: "Bill Gates says that in *both* meetings he had with Trump, Trump asked if HPV and HIV were the same thing," tweeted Hayes.
Gates is a critic of Trump's policies, but did, indeed, meet twice with the president: once in March 2017, and again in the March 2018. This indicates that the video was taken within the last few months.
This wouldn't be the first time Gates spoke publicly about the content of that meeting, either. In April, Gates said that Trump offered him a role as White House science advisor, which he declined, saying that it was "not a good use of my time."
Meanwhile, HIV/AIDS is a matter near and dear to Gates' heart. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, where he spends most of his time, has made it one of its core causes to tackle the spread of the virus.
"All In With Chris Hayes" also published a longer video of Gates' remarks:
Never before seen footage obtained exclusively by All In shows Bill Gates discussing meetings with Donald Trump #inners pic.twitter.com/GouJwYKghi
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Representatives for Bill Gates did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The best hand soaps of 2021
Trump-ally media outlet OAN quietly deleted articles about Dominion despite publicly doubling down on election conspiracy theories


Central New York, brace yourself for a long, thirsty, summer because F.X. Matt Brewing Company said we can expect a Utica Club beer shortage coming soon.
Utica Club is undergoing a packaging change and there may be some in-between time when it can't be found. Both the 12oz cans and bottles will be affected, but the drafts and 16 oz cans will still be available.
"We are making some adjustments to a couple of our packages and the transition didn't go as smoothly as we had hoped," Matt said in a news release.
The good news is, sales are good, and Utica Club will be around for years to come. Hopefully the packaging transition doesn't take as long as expected, and we'll make it through this challenging time.
What does Louisiana think of Utica Club?


Delegates will consider the teaching of and progression in reading from EYFS to Y6. The session will consider the various components of effective reading provision in EYFS, KS1 and KS2. Phonics, guided, whole class and reciprocal reading strategies will be considered.
A better understanding of teaching strategies.


text:
Updated 23 April, 2019 - 18:52 ashley cowie
Largest Ever Maya Figurine Workshop Discovered Accidentally in Unexplored Mound
In May 2018, heavy machinery excavating outside the city of Coban, in the highlands of Guatemala , sliced into a large earthen mound that was found to contain millions of parts from Classic Maya figurine molds, figurines, and incense burners. It's being called the largest Maya figurine workshop ever encountered in the Maya world .
Situated beside an ancient lake that dried up several centuries ago, Kaminaljuyú once contained the largest Maya population in the southern highlands. Today, all that remains of this once thriving ancient metropolis are grassy overgrown pyramids within the Kaminaljuyú Archaeological Park. After cutting into the mounds the contractors immediately stopped their machinery and contacted local authorities who called on Dr. Brent Woodfill of Winthrop University to investigate and assess the site, named Aragón.
Ruins of Kaminaljuyú, Guatemala, where the Mayan ceramics were discovered.. (Agencia de Viajes Turansa / CC BY-SA 2.0 )
Maya Figurine Workshop
Dated to between 750 and 900 AD, the archaeological site was found to be a major center of ceramic figurine production. According to a paper published in the National Science Foundation , having been discovered in a largely undisturbed state, scientists studying the workshop hope they'll be able to relate "figurine production and exchange to other economic activities that occurred here, and the relationships the producers maintained with local and far-flung Mesoamerican groups."
A report in Science Magazine talking of the "sheer quantity of ceramics" details that in one single burial mound "7,000 sherds per cubic foot of soil" were discovered. What's more, the entire mound was found to contain the "astounding total of 15 million fragments" including the remains of some "500,000 once-intact ceramic vessels ."
These quantities inform scientists that millions of pots were smashed into fragments by either the ancient city's own residents, or by invaders, and each one serves as physical evidence of not only the region's huge population, but they also speak of its turbulent pattern of collapse, rebuilding, and revival.
Archaeologists Discover Massive Maya Frieze Found in Guatemala
Ancient Earthworks of North America suggest pre-Columbian European contact
Ancient Mound Excavation in Peru Leads to Groundbreaking Discovery of Advanced Civilization Dating Back 15,000 Years
Mayan ceramics discovered in mound outside of Coban, Guatemala. Source: W.Scott McGill / Adobe.
What Do All These Mayan Ceramics Tell Us?
Academically, despite its centrality in the ancient Mexican and Central American economy of the Maya, Aztec, and other Mesoamerican cultures, the region in which the workshop was discovered has never been formally investigated by archaeologists. Currently, the understanding of Mayan culture in this area is taken from limited Spanish writings after the Spanish conquest of the Maya people, but through examining these figurines scientists will learn of the "cultural continuity" both before and after the arrival of gold hungry European conquistadors .
Dr. Woodfill has been given an emergency RAPID award (Improved Understanding of Regional Trade and Development from the Emergency Salvage of a Late Classic Site) that will enable him to "conduct an emergency salvage of a vital archaeological site collecting critical but ephemeral data."
The project includes testing which trade routes the Spaniards were using before the collapse of the Maya, which will in turn provide detailed models for Classic Maya figurine production and exchange, reveling insights into the development of regional trade.
It is known that Maya political leaders offered their allies figurines in efforts to strengthen political ties and the presence of such a vast workshop suggests there may have been a previously unknown powerful Maya city in the region in the mid-16th century when the Spaniards arrived. And, enticingly, an Archaeology.org article says that some of the other "half-eroded humps, hemmed in by cinder block houses and parking lots" hold the remains of "centuries of Maya history." Underneath the modern city is an entirely different, and much more ancient set of habitations, that hold unknown tons of evidence of one of the world's most advanced civilizations - the Maya .
Unrestored mound in the Kaminaljuyu archaeological park, Guatemala City. (Simon Burchell / CC BY-SA 3.0 )
Top image: Mold used by the Maya to make figurines. Credit: Dr Brent Woodfill, Winthrop University.
By Ashley Cowie
Ashley is a Scottish historian, author, and documentary filmmaker presenting original perspectives on historical problems in accessible and exciting ways.
He was raised in Wick, a small fishing village in the county of Caithness on the north east coast of... Read More
Guest213 wrote on 23 April, 2019 - 22:50 Permalink
Aragon is about 150 km from Kaminaljuyu and dates to a different time period. This should be corrected before the game of telephone goes any farther.
16 January, 2021 - 17:06 Alicia McDermott
Maya Drug Secrets Revealed in Ancient Plant Residues
For the first time ever, scientists have identified a non-tobacco plant in ancient Maya drug containers. The researchers say the plant residues suggest that the Maya found a way to make tobacco...
Read more about Maya Drug Secrets Revealed in Ancient Plant Residues
3 October, 2020 - 01:51 Kerry Sullivan
Sacred Cenotes: Portals to the Maya Underworld
The ancient Maya who populated the Yucatan Peninsula in the first millennium AD believed that there were three ways for the living to enter Xibalba, the world of the dead: through deep caves, through...
Read more about Sacred Cenotes: Portals to the Maya Underworld
1 October, 2020 - 22:01 ashley cowie
Researchers Find Ilopango Mega-eruption Caused A Maya Armageddon
A new scientific study of an ice core sample from Greenland has demonstrated how the Central-American Ilopango mega-eruption wiped out an entire Maya area, 1,590 years ago. Oxford University...
Read more about Researchers Find Ilopango Mega-eruption Caused A Maya Armageddon
18 September, 2020 - 18:04 Ed Whelan
Wreck of Maya Slave Ship Found in Gulf of Mexico
A shipwreck identified in the Gulf of Mexico has thrown a light on a forgotten and dark episode in Mexican history. Archaeologists have identified a 19th-century slave ship. Before it sank, this...
Read more about Wreck of Maya Slave Ship Found in Gulf of Mexico
9 September, 2020 - 18:50 Mark Andrew Car...
The Secret Skull of Pakal the Great: An Academic Cover-Up?
In 1952, deep within the smoldering cedar and mahogany forests of southern Mexico , and after four years of arduous toiling, the archaeologist Alberto Ruz Lhuillier finally finished removing the...
Read more about The Secret Skull of Pakal the Great: An Academic Cover-Up?
3 September, 2020 - 21:02 Dr. Edwin Barnhart
The Maya People Still Have So Much to Teach Us
There's overdue pushback these days on the notion that civilization began in the Americas when Columbus "discovered" the New World in 1492. In fact, the Maya people built one of the world's most...
Read more about The Maya People Still Have So Much to Teach Us


According to its manufacturers, the HTC Exodus 1 is a blockchain-encrypted phone that offers easy access to security-based and decentralized apps and the phone actually acts as its own blockchain node.
HTC, which is marking 10 years since the unveiling of its first Android phone, is labelling the launch as a "1.0 version" of the Exodus, and is now inviting the cryptocurrency community to evaluate and help improve the device with its feedback. That's not to say it doesn't have features not available on virtually any Android or iPhone model that's now in use.
The blockchain part consists of a secure enclave on the phone that's protected from Android, which will hold the keys to your crypto, non-fungible tokens, and "all your digital data" at some point down the road.
How is it possible to have a blockchain phone? The phone is practically a blockchain version of HTC's U12+ flagship, featuring a 6-inch QuadHD+ display with 18:9 aspect ratio, Snapdragon 845 chip, 6GB of RAM, 128GB of storage, 16-megapixel dual camera, 8-megapixel dual selfie camera, IP68 rating, 3,500 mAh battery, and Android Oreo.
The HTC Exodus already has a competitor in its niche category, with Swiss startup Sirin Labs expected to release its own $1,000 blockchain smartphone Finney - to be manufactured by iPhone-maker Foxconn - before the end of the year.
With a 6-inch, QHD+ display at an 18:9 aspect ratio and a Snapdragon 845 processor with 6 GB of RAM and 128 GB of internal storage, the Exodus 1 also packs a 3,500mAh battery with IP68 waterproof rating, comparable to mainstream Android flagships now sold in the market by Samsung and Google and other mainstream phone makers. Then, your seed will be split via a secret sharing algorithm and sent to the trusted contacts.
HTC also intends to release application program interfaces (APIs) for third-party developers, allowing them use the EXODUS 1 to protect keys and sign transactions.
The new HTC Exodus blockchain phone is now available to pre-order. That's how crypto works. The phone is available in 34 countries including the US, UK, Taiwan, Singapore, New Zealand, Norway and various European countries.


True grass-fed products are naturally higher in Conjugated Linoleic Acid, an essential fatty acid with some amazing properties.
Also, grass-fed products have more vitamin A, more vitamin E, 75% more omega-3 and 75% more beta-carotene than grain-fed beef.
The use of antibiotics or hormones to promote growth is not used in our products. We allow natural genetics for animal growth. Our bulls have been genetically tested to be in the top 10% for tenderness.


text:
Scotland's Standing Stones Really Were Astronomical Devices
The 5,000-year-old great stone circle at Stenness, Orkney, is aligned so the stone furthest to the right is oriented upon the last glimmer of a southern Moon occurring every 18.6 years; the second stone is aligned towards the winter solstice sunset, and the stone furthest left is aligned to the Moon as it sets into its most northern position every 18.6 years. Douglas Scott
By Stephen Luntz
A long-standing theory about the ancient stone circles that dot the British Isles has been confirmed. These great rocks were carefully positioned to indicate astronomical events, including some that only happen once every 19 years.
Centuries before Stonehenge was built, smaller but still astonishing circles were created on Lewis and Orkney, islands off the northern and western coasts of Scotland respectively. The position of the stones within these circles appear to have been chosen so that they line up with astronomical events, such as the place where the Sun rises on the shortest day of the year.
However, the alignment can be off by a degree or two, leading to questions as to whether some or all cases were random rather than planned. "Nobody before this has ever statistically determined that a single stone circle was constructed with astronomical phenomena in mind – it was all supposition," said Dr Gail Higginbottom of the University of Adelaide in a statement.
In the Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports, Higginbottom and her co-authors have resolved the question. They took the number of stones at the great Scottish circles of Callanish and Stenness and had a computer program place the same number randomly 720 times, to see how often astronomical alignments would occur. Fits as good as those observed in the real world appeared so rarely, Higginbottom is convinced they did not happen by chance.
"This research is finally proof that the ancient Britons connected the Earth to the sky with their earliest standing stones, and that this practice continued in the same way for 2,000 years," Higginbottom said. The analysis was extended to smaller circles dotted across Scotland, most of which appear to have been built around the same time as Stonehenge, 500 years after Callanish and Stenness.


Keep Austin Beautiful Day is an event held once a year. Cypress employees, friends and families come together to volunteer and cleanup the community area that surrounds the Cypress Austin campus. There will be hard work going on, refreshments, and lots of laughs. This event last about 2 hrs starting on-site and covers about 5 miles of the nearby neighborhoods.
Safety briefing and materials will be provided at the start of the event along with free t-shirts. The cleanup event is followed by a not-to-be-missed volunteer party featuring free t-shirts, lunch, live music, children's environmental activities, a unique object contest, door prizes, and more!


text:
Enter To Win TriStar Trinity LT Over/Under Prize Package!
Bolt-Actions
Side-by-Side/Over-Under
Rights Watch
Campfire Tales
GUNS Insider
Montana Musings
Shooter's RX
Surplus, Classic
The Grease Gun
Cheap, Utilitarian And Deadly …
Written By Mike "Duke" Venturino
World War II icons: The M3 SMG and the Model 1911A1 — both in .45 ACP.
Grease Gun! How does a military weapon get named for an automotive accessory you'd find in a service garage? Well, because it actually looks like one. In reality, it's a nickname for two versions of the same World War II vintage .45 ACP submachine gun — the M3 and M3A1. Both versions were all metal, stamped and spot-welded together.
The British 9mm STEN helped inspire the U.S. to develop the M3.
Weight And Cost
Contrary to its cult following, the U.S. Models 1928, 1928A1, M1 and M1A1 Thompson SMGs (collectively called Tommy Guns) were not the greatest design. They were heavy and expensive to manufacture.
My 1942-vintage M1 Tommy Gun weighs 11.25 lbs. with an empty 30-round magazine. A British MII Sten weighs 7.50 lbs. with a 32-round magazine, a German MP40 weighs 8.75 lbs. (also with a 32-round magazine) and an M3 Grease Gun weighs 8.75 lbs. with a 30-round magazine. These are actual weights of my own samples with slings attached.
As to ammo, a single round of 230-gr. .45 ACP hardball weighs 323 grains. A factory round of 9mm (115 grains) weighs 180 grains. Computing a bit further, 30 rounds of .45 ACP adds 1.43 lbs. to the SMG's weight but 32 rounds of 9mm add only 0.82 lbs.
However, manufacturing costs might have been the most important factor for America wanting to discontinue purchases of Tommy Guns as early as 1942. At the beginning of World War II a Model 1928A1 cost the U.S. Government about $212. The alterations to make them into cheaper M1 and M1A1 reduced that to between $42 and $44.
However, a Grease Gun only set the government back about $22. Thus the M3 was adopted and production of Tommy Guns was stopped in 1944 after a total of about 1.5 million had been made in all the variations. (These rounded dollar figures are approximations because research sources disagree on exact figures.)
Low Gun! Morgan Wines tries her hand at Duke's Grease Gun with the wire stock retracted.
Filling A Niche
It's appropriate to understand the purposes of SMGs as used in World War II and even what constitutes an SMG. The term refers to a handheld weapon firing pistol cartridges as opposed to machineguns, which normally were fired from tripods or bipods and fed full-size rifle cartridges.
Upon their introduction late in the First World War, the idea was to use SMGs as "Trench Brooms" as General John T. Thompson first called his new designs. Trenches were not so common in World War II, but by then SMGs had been given another assignment. They were issued to crews of armored vehicles for keeping enemy infantry from crawling aboard. The idea was tank crewmen could stick them out view slits or pop up in turrets to "sweep" enemies off their vehicle.
It's worth noting the tanks America shipped overseas even to Allied nations such as Britain, France and even the Soviet Union first had Tommy Guns in their turrets. Later they became M3 or M3A1 Grease Guns. I've been told some National Guard tanks shipped to the Mideast for the Iraqi War of 1991 still contained Grease Guns.
M3s made their combat debut in World War II in the hands of some 82nd and 101st Airborne parachute infantry who dropped into Normandy in the D-Day invasion. By then SMG roles had increased. Most armies considered them a benefit in urban street-to-street and room-to-room fighting. In most American infantry units they were issued to NCOs, but parachute units often carried many more than regular infantry in an effort to boost their limited firepower.
America was once firmly committed to the .45 ACP as this WWII lineup attests:
M1 Tommy Gun, S&W and Colt Model 1917 revolvers, Colt Model 1911, M3 Grease Gun.
It can be said the British Sten was partly responsible for the Grease Gun's development. Officials from the Guide Lamp Division of General Motors studied the production methods used by the British when tooling up for M3 production. Stamped parts were used wherever possible and spot-welded whenever possible. Sometimes the crude production of Sten Guns caused them to be nicknamed "Plumbers' Nightmares." Likewise, the M3 never received the adulation given the Thompson.
The Grease Gun was of a simple blowback design firing from an open bolt. You pull the bolt back for the first shot and it stays back until you pull the trigger. The bullet's passage up the barrel pushes the fired case rearward, in turn retracting the bolt. Then a spring pushes the bolt forward to pick up another cartridge and firing it — which it continues to do as long as the trigger is held back.
The rate of fire of such a system can be adjusted by the weight of the bolt. The M3 was nominally rated at 400-450 rounds per minute. Mine is almost consistently right at 400 RPM. In comparison, my M1 Thompson SMG is consistently around 700. By the adoption of the M3, designers realized semi-auto fire from an SMG was likely foolish. Personally, I've never read of an instance where one was used as a semi-auto in combat. Both the M3 and the later M3A1 was full-auto only. But a little practice — combined with the gun's slow rate of fire — makes it easy to squeeze and release the trigger to fire a single shot.
At left is the M3 with the original charging crank. At right is the M3A1 with the simplified
"hole in the bolt" cocking arrangement. Both utilized a simple blade front and aperture rear sight.
The safety setup of a Grease Gun: The projection on the inside of the ejection
port cover sets inside a hole in the bolt.
The military soon realized — even with M1 and M1A1 Thompsons — intricate adjustable rear sights were a waste on an SMG. A bent piece of steel with an aperture drilled through it sufficed. This bare-bones arrangement was carried over to Grease Guns. Also removed was a mechanical safety. Instead, a projection on the ejection port cover fitted into a recess in the bolt. This arrangement holds the bolt forward until the cover is flipped up. To make them extra handy in the confines of a vehicle, M3s and M3A1s were given a sliding metal-wire stock. With the stock extended the Grease Gun can be shoulder-fired. With it retracted it can be fired more or less like a two-fisted handgun.
One M3 feature not carried over to the M3A1 was the charging crank — basically a handle on the M3's right side. Pulling it back cocks the bolt and readies the gun for firing. Early combat reports indicated the crank was fragile. In the heat of battle it was possible to damage it by "hard-cranking" and rough usage could break it off. Instead of a charging handle, the M3A1 featured a hole in the bolt for the user to insert his finger in to cock the gun. (If you watch the movie Fury starring Brad Pitt, note his tank crew carries M3A1s — not impossible since the movie is set in April 1945, but perhaps unlikely.)
As with the Tommy Guns, their replacement Grease Guns spawned many accessories — flared flash hiders, noise suppressors and even an experimental curved barrel for shooting around corners. One accessory package I would dearly love to have for my M3 is the conversion kit to make it a 9mm. All M3 and M3A1 SMGs used in World War II were produced by Guide Lamp. More M3A1s were made during the Korean War by Ithaca. The total produced was about half that of Tommy Guns.
Grease Guns are not as sought after by collectors as say, any version of Tommy Gun or German MP40. I was no different. It was the last SMG added to my own collection, but I've never regretted buying it.
GUNS December 2018 Cover
Purchase A PDF Download Of The GUNS Magazine December 2018 Issue Now!
We think you'd be interested in this, too
Guns We Want to...
Just days away from the 2020 SHOT Show, we can't help but drool thinking about all the new guns we'll get to shoot, handle and see throughout the week.
GMP Quick Hit #3...
t's a question we get asked and hear a lot: why don't we see the "bad" gun reviews? Host Brent T. Wheat and Publisher Roy Huntington address why they...
Streamlight...
Today we're blessed with a multitude of LED flashlights for every need which is why I was underwhelmed when the Streamlight Polytac HP flashlight was...
BECOME A GUNS MAGAZINE INSIDER
SIGN-UP TO RECEIVE SPECIAL CONTENT, NEWS, OFFERS, AND MORE!
Missing Issue
An FMG Publications Production
13741 Danielson Street, Suite A
MADE BY SIDEKICK


text:
Japanese Warship Departs for Gulf of Oman to Patrol Oil Lifeline
Japan's Maritime Self-Defence Force destroyer "Takanami" leave for the Middle East from Yokosuka Naval Base in Yokosuka, south of Tokyo, Japan in this photo taken by Kyodo February 2, 2020. Mandatory credit Kyodo/via REUTERS
By Tim Kelly – YOKOSUKA, Feb 2 (Reuters) – A Japanese destroyer left for the Gulf of Oman on Sunday amid simmering Middle East tension to guard sea lanes that supply nearly all the oil that powers the world's third-biggest economy.
"Thousands of Japanese ships ply those waters every year including vessels carrying nine tenths of our oil. It is Japan's lifeline," Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told the crew at Yokosuka naval base near Tokyo, before they cast off in a ceremony attended by 500 family members and representatives from the United States, European nations and Middle East.
Abe's government has said it is prepared to authorize force to protect ships in danger, a controversial decision because Japan's war-renouncing constitution forbids the use of military force in international disputes.
The Takanami, which will be joined by two maritime patrol planes, will not, however join a naval force led by Japan's U.S. ally or other naval coalitions in the region.
Tokyo has chosen to operate independently as it navigates disputes in the volatile region. Japan maintains cordial relations with Iran and other countries there and Abe traveled to the region in January to brief Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Oman on the mission after earlier speaking with Iranian leaders.
Tension in the Middle East has heightened as friction between Iran and the United States escalated following U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to pull the United States out of a 2015 international nuclear deal with Iran and re-impose sanctions on it.
The United States has blamed Iran for several attacks on international merchant vessels, including a Japanese-owned tanker, the Kokuka Courageous. Tehran denies the accusation.
In addition to the Gulf of Oman, the Takanami, with 200 sailors and two helicopters, will patrol the northern Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden, but will not enter the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically important choke point between Iran and the Arabian peninsula.
The Japanese destroyer will share water in the region with a growing number of warships from other countries, including vessels from the United States, France and Britain.
"Japanese merchant ships were attacked in June, and other nations have increased patrols so Japan too is acting to gather intelligence there," the mission commander, Captain Yosuke Inaba told reporters before he departed. (Reporting by Tim Kelly; Editing by Christopher Cushing)
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2019.


text:
Q: Mutating version of tap -- or a way to pipe expressions? tap yields self to the block passed to it, and returns self unaltered.  I often find myself wishing there was a version of tap which returned the return value of the block, rather than self.  For example:
[1,2].inject(:+).tap {|x| x * 3} #=> returns 3, but I want 9

Is there any builtin method that will accomplish this?
The typical solution -- create a temporarily local var to store the output of [1,2].inject(:+), and multiply that by 3 -- seems kludgy.

A: There is no built in method for that, but you can add Kernel#ergo from Ruby Facets:
"a".ergo.upcase #=> "A"
nil.ergo.foobar #=> nil

"a".ergo { |o| o.upcase } #=> "A"
nil.ergo { |o| o.foobar } #=> nil

This is like #tap, but #tap yields self and returns self, where as #ergo yields self but returns the result.

A: You could do this yourself.
class Object
  def my_tap
    return yield self if block_given?
    self
  end
end

[1,2].inject(:+).my_tap {|x| x * 3}
=> 9

A: This is an older question, but you can now use yield_self to do this.


text:
高麗館 Kouraikan Kouraikan
At one point along the Tozawa road in Yamagata Prefecture, a foreign and exotic mood and space suddenly appear then spread over the green mountains. This is the Kouraikan. The Kouraikan is a complex of buildings filled with an exotic mood, which was built to introduce Korean culture and history to Japan, as well as deepen mutual understandings between the people who visit.
The Kouraikan was opened in 1997 as a symbol of friendship between Korea and Tsutsumigawa-shi and to get in touch with the ancient culture of the Korean Peninsula. All kinds of buildings and shops can be found within the Kouraikan, including a product hall that exhibits and sells traditional articles of everyday use. There are also handicrafts on display, a food culture hall introducing Korean food, an ethnic culture hall introducing Korean customs and arts, as well as a Korean garden filled with Korean flowers, such as the 'mukuge' and the 'klein'. Another area is the Norimadan, where the townspeople gather for amusement. All of these facilities help create a real Korean atmosphere.
The Kouraikan exquisitely replicates aspects of Korean history and culture, and shows the fondness and harmonious relationship that Korea and Japan have, at the same time giving visitors a feeling of compassion and excitement.
foreign food
Heisei
ancientry
[Yamagata]
江戸更紗 Edosarasa Edo Sarasa Cloth
Edo sarasa is a tasteful and exotic dyed cotton cloth. The patterns on sarasa are of southern flowers, birds and people depicted in rich colors, and came to Japan from countries such as India, Java and Persia.
Sarasa was introduced to Japan through the southern Nanban trade at the end of the Muromachi period, and had begun to spread by the mid-Edo period.
Edo sarasa has a Japanese sensibility in its colors and designs and uses patterns created through stencil printing. These Japanese patterns are stylized and exotic. Usually, around 30 stencils are used but up to 300 stencils are sometimes used! When many stencil designs are layered together, the sarasa appear profound and almost three-dimensional.
Edo sarasa is a beautiful craft preserved by craftsmen today who have inherited these traditional techniques from the Edo period.
cut paper stencil
Edo craftsmen
stencil printing
cotton cloth
sarasa
animal motif
[Tokyo]
ward off
knot together
basin,
tanada
Oyamadumi
folk toy


Abstract: Our analysis of central banks' predictability is based on a unique data set of almost 500 market participants worldwide who were asked questions with respect to the performance of the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve. Our results indicate a positive and economically notable relationship between central banks' ability to convey their objectives and their overall communication skills on the one hand, and market participants' perception of the banks' predictability on the other hand. The perceived importance of disseminating more specific information does not contribute to better central bank predictability.