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        Triskell's wanderings

Flutter

What's up Flutter? February 2018

                Forewords Flutter community is expanding, more and more great content is appearing online. I’m so delighted about it. You will see in this…

                 <time class="timesince" data-timesince="1519772400" datetime="2018-02-28T00:00" title="28 February 2018">2 years ago</time>
                 Thomas Abot

                    Flutter, Report, News, February, 2018, Mobile

What's up Flutter? January 2018

                Forewords This news report on Flutter is just a gathering of links and information about what happened this January. You may find lots of links…

                 <time class="timesince" data-timesince="1517180400" datetime="2018-01-29T00:00" title="29 January 2018">2 years ago</time>
                 Thomas Abot

                    Flutter, Report, News, January, 2018, Mobile

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The Expendables 3 (2014) Review
The third Expendables is the weakest yet feeling like it has been neutered for mass appeal but fails in living up to what Stallone promised fans. It's not a terrible movie but it should have been so much better.
Plot: Barney and his team, known as "The Expendables", come into conflict with ruthless arms dealer Conrad Stonebanks, the Expendables' co-founder, who is determined to destroy the team.
Review: After months of waiting and whining about the PG-13 rating, it's finally here; The Expendables 3 has arrived and the time has come to see if it's as watered down as we all expected.
So does The Expendables franchise work as family friendly fare? Well… that's debatable.
It certainly feels watered down and there are scenes which you just know are cut, but will hopefully make it to an Unrated DVD/Blu Ray in a few months.
The most noticeable scene is at the very start when the lads rescue Wesley Snipes from an armoured train. Cables are (probably) slicing the bad guys in half but it happens so fast that we don't get to see and it was frustratingly bloodless. This happens with a lot of scenes where there are some obvious quick cuts just when things look like they're about to get interesting.
Because of this there were no "fuck yeah!" moments in this movie. Remember in Part 1 when Terry Crews arrives with Omaya Kaboom and starts blowing the bad guys in half? We all laughed and cheered because it was so over the top and everything you want from this kind of action movie. Also the basketball court scene with Statham beating up the group of thugs in Part 1… there is nothing like that in this sadly and it all feels a bit safe.
Practically every scene from the trailers wasn't in the film; Wesley doesn't say "lots to digest", Antonio doesn't say "Courageous but insane!", Harrison Ford doesn't laugh hysterically in the helicopter and Stallone doesn't say "Something wrong with the stairs?" which kinda sucked.
My other big problem was how uninteresting the young Expendables were; none of them had any real personality (aside from Rhonda) and I wanted them all to get killed so we could just get back to watching what we came to see: Arnold, Sly and co. kicking ass and taking names. There is nowhere near enough time spent with our heroes and let's face it, nobody is going to see this movie because they want to see a bunch of young non-action stars displaying zero personality. To underuse Dolph and Jet Li was a terrible shame and I was hoping we would get more of them in this movie; our heroes are basically sidelined for the younger cast which really wasn't the best idea.
There is also a pacing lag in the mid-section as we waste time with Barney looking for a younger team; this would have been so much cooler if it was Dwayne Johnson, Donnie Yen or people who have actually been in action movies before. I also would have liked if more of the newcomers were on Gibson's team; he had no main henchmen and it was basically him and a bunch of faceless extras vs. The Expendables.
Another thing which bugged me was the lack of hand to hand fight scenes; if you're wanting to see Jet Li fight then you'll be disappointed, he has even less screen time than in the last movie and the climactic fight between Gibson and Sly is even shorter than the JCVD fight from part 2.
Oh and if you thought the PG-13 rating would mean less crappy CGI then you'll also be mistaken. There are some laughably bad special effects, like the helicopter blowing up behind Sly and Snipes and a few animated explosions.
It sounds as if I hated the movie but I just wanted to get the negatives out of the way first; yes it certainly feels like a lot has been cut but that doesn't mean there aren't some fun action scenes. The final 30 minutes is all out war with the team reunited and blowing things up like it's going out of fashion; it's essentially action movie nirvana. There is also a pretty huge bodycount in the finale and although we don't see heads exploding, plenty of bad guys still get taken out by guns, knives and more.
The best part of the entire movie and frankly the Expendables series is the addition of Wesley Snipes who steals every scene he is in. He has the best lines and his character Doc even starts off as a bit creepy too. You aren't sure if he can be trusted or not and his rivalry with Statham's Lee Christmas provides a few nice touches of humour.
Speaking of the humour, I am pleased to say that script-wise The Expendables 3 is arguably the best of the series; there are very few lame nods and knowing humour. Arnie does indeed get to say "Get to the choppa!" but it works and the humour overall is genuinely entertaining. There is some clunky dialogue in places though, especially the scenes between Statham and Stallone which has never worked in all three films. It's minimal though and didn't reduce my enjoyment.
Despite being a little wooden, I loved how Harrison Ford can't understand Jason Statham's accent with lines like "What language is that?" and "Stop mumbling!".
Antonio Banderas was slightly annoying at first and is more Puss in Boots than Desperado but that's only briefly until we find out why, then he becomes an awesome ass-kicker. He has a few choice lines with Rhonda Rousey too who is also easily the best of the younger newcomers.
Kellan Lutz definitely has potential as an action star and arguably has the most screen time of any of the young Expendables… but we'll see.
Terry Crews has a smaller role and is essentially replaced by Snipes, which is the way it always should have been; he was just keeping the role warm until Snipes got out of jail.
Mel Gibson gives a barnstorming performance as the villainous Conrad Stonebanks and does the very best with what he is given. His finest hour is when he and Barney (Stallone) come face to face in a van. It's intense as Hell and probably the best non-action moment of the film.
Brian Tyler once again scores the movie so we get the Expendables theme and some nice new pieces too proving that when it comes to action movie scores, Tyler is the best in the business these days.
If this is the grand finale then it's a decent place to stop and wraps everything up, but I still would like another harder movie with more REAL action stars added to the cast. Johnson and Donnie Yen for Part 4 please!
Overall, despite feeling very much watered down and spending too much time with the younger, less interesting newcomers The Expendables 3 is a fun ride with Wesley Snipes and Mel Gibson on fantastic form. There's an overuse of CGI and a pacing lull in the mid-section but the final half hour is action movie Heaven. I just hope we get the Unrated Cut on DVD and see the film as it was meant to be seen.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Experience the difference Chevy Suburban 1500 Shocks provide through high quality material and performance. Off Road Shocks offers leading manufacturers like Fox and King Shocks to ensure quality shocks and coilovers. Get the lift and stability needed to maximize performance on and off road through Off Road Shocks!


text:
All American Journal of Agricultural Science, Engineering, and Technology (AJASET) articles are published with open access under the CC-BY Creative Commons attribution license (CC-BY, version 4.0). It refers that the author(s) retains copyright; however, the content is free to download, distribute, and adapt for commercial or non-commercial purposes, given appropriate attribution to the original article.
The author(s) grants a license to AJASET to publish, including displaying, copying, storing, and re-using the content upon submission. The CC-BY Creative Commons attribution license enables anyone to use the publication freely, giving appropriate attribution to the author(s) and citing AJASET as the original source. This license does not apply to third-party materials that display a copyright notice to prohibit copying. The author(s) must comply with any third-party copyright notices unless the third-party content is also subject to a CC-BY Creative Commons attribution license or an equally permissive license.


A recent trend amongst colleges and universities is to integrate student IDs with access control systems. This is part of a larger effort to increase overall campus security. The threat of violence and criminal activity on college campuses is an unfortunate reality, one that has to be taken very seriously. Many schools are re-evaluating their current security systems, exploring more effective video surveillance equipment as well as more secure and functional ID card solutions.
A key benefit of card-based access control systems for college dorms is that the facilities can remain locked at all times, with students using they're ID cards to gain entry. On many campuses, dorm security is lax. People are able to come and go as they please, whether they're students or potentially dangerous intruders. A secure access control system solves this problem. Each ID card is encoded to open only that individual student's dorm. These systems typically operate using either magnetic stripe technology or proximity card or contactless smart card technology.
With magnetic stripe cards, the student would simply swipe the card through a reader to gain access. Proximity cards and contactless smart cards are waived in front of the reader, and typically offer a higher level of security. Some access control systems also utilize contact smart cards (think of hotel rooms for instance). With either of these setups, if a student loses his or her card, it can simply be deactivated, thus nullifying the chance of someone other than the student using a found card to enter a facility without authorization.
While it might seem like an inconvenience at first for students to have to slide or waive their IDs to enter a dormitory, the action is likely to become second nature, and the added security is well worth the trouble. Leaving dormitories unlocked is a dangerous risk, and a secure access control system is an excellent solution to the problem.


text:
Q: Node.JS, MongoDB TypeError: undefined function I have an error on a function call but I don't really know why it doesn't works.
.get(function(req, res) {
        Appointment.find({'creator._id':'55836c3929294c2506000001'}).toArray(function(err, appoint){
            console.log("retrieved records:");
            console.log(appointment);
        });
    });

Here you can find my error alert :
TypeError: undefined is not a function
at Object.handle (/Users/maximesauvage/Appoint/server.js:199:67)

(It's my find method on the row 199)
I just want to get the "Appointment" rows where creator._id = 55836c3929294c2506000001
My Appointment JSON structure (an example):
{
"_id": {
    "$oid": "55846bd717ed43180f000002"
},
"creator": {
    "_id": {
        "$oid": "55836c3929294c2506000001"
    },
    "username": "hello",
    "email": "hello@toto.com",
    "__v": 2

A: .get(function(req, res) {
        Appointment.find({'creator._id':'55836c3929294c2506000001'}, function(err, appoint){
            console.log("retrieved records:");
            var appointment = $.map(appoint, function(arr) { return arr; });
            console.log(appoint);
        });
    });

.toArray is a jQuery function and can be used only on jQuery objects. Try the above code.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


San Diego Junior Theatre provides engaging, innovative, high-quality theatre education and productions for children of all cultural heritages, ages, abilities and levels of interest.
San Diego Junior Theatre educational programs and productions are made possible in part by show ticket sales, class and camp registrations, and public contributions. Major funding is provided by the California Arts Council, the County of San Diego, the City of San Diego Commission for Arts and Culture, the City of San Diego Park and Recreation Department, and the San Diego Junior Theatre Auxiliary.
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text:
Sparneck er en købstad (markt) i Landkreis Hof i den nordøstlige del af den bayerske regierungsbezirk Oberfranken i det sydlige Tyskland. Den er administrationsby for Verwaltungsgemeinschaft Sparneck.

Geografi
Markt Sparneck ligger i 560 meters højde i Pfarrbachtal, hvor hovedparten af kommunens område ligger. Floden Saale løber i denne dal mod nord. Mod øst hæver det 877 meter høje Waldstein-Gebirgszug, hvor Saale har sit udspring. Bjerget danner en naturlig grænse til naboområdet Landkreis Wunsiedel.

Nabokommuner
Sparneck grænser til købstaden Zell im Fichtelgebirge, byen Münchberg, købstaden Weißdorf, og byen Kirchenlamitz, som ligger i Landkreis Wunsiedel.

Inddeling
Kommunen Sparneck består ud over byen Sparneck af landsbyerne Brandenstumpf, Einöden, Germersreuth, Grohenbühl, Immerseiben, Immershof, Reinersreuth, Rohrmühle, Saalmühle, Stockenroth og Ziegelhütte

Eksterne henvisninger

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


"Tomorrow's Cities", a succinct and inspiring film (15 minutes long) produced by Luke Younge for Sustainable Energy Africa, presents a compelling and easy to understand account of the major developmental challenges facing our cities in South Africa and more broadly cities of the global south. Framed within these challenges, the film unfolds a vision, through the voice of a school child and exciting use of animation, and proposes practical solutions towards achieving breathable, sustainable, equitable and low carbon urban futures.
The film is intended as a learning tool to raise discussion and awareness and ultimately inspire action toward the development of sustainable and equitable, low carbon cities.
To view the SEED Brochure, click here.
To order a copy of this documentary, please contact info@sustainable.org.za or call +27 21 7023622. DVD's are available for free but shipping needs to be paid by the customer. Orders of 10 DVD's or more need to be accompanied by a motivational letter.
Tomorrow's Cities from Luke Younge on Vimeo.


This single story cabin is roomy with its open floor plan, making it the perfect place for your family's next get-away. You can even bring your furry family member (dogs only) with approval. In the living room you will find a gas fireplace that keeps the home cozy on those cold nights. There is a full kitchen to cook delicious meals for your group. There is a dining table that will seat 4, with 4 additional stools at the breakfast bar.
The master bedroom has King bed and en-suite bathroom with a shower stall. The second bedroom has a queen bed and the third bedroom has two sets of twin over twin bunk beds. There is another full bathroom between these two bedrooms to share.
Outside, there is ample parking for your toys like snowmobiles and boat trailers, and the wrap-around deck has seating, a gas grill, and views of the surrounding forest.
Parking: there is room for 2 cars and 2 trailers OR 4 vehicles.
We do not have any current pre-built packages for A House For All Seasons .
General Location: 2 miles from downtown.
Please note: Guest reviews may mention certain amenities that may no longer be offered with A House For All Seasons. Please check the amenities prior to booking to confirm.
"Great place to stay, wish we had more time. Clean and comfortable."
We can save you time: Rather than scouring the web looking for a place to stay in McCall let us do it! We know McCall and can find you a place based on your request and our service is free! Simply fill out the quote form above and we'll email you a bookable quote with listings in McCall. InIdaho has rented McCall cabins, condos and vacation rentals for about 21 years and offer the largest selection. We guarantee the lowest prices for A House For All Seasons reservations. Our local idaho business is staffed by friendly and efficient employees who appreciate that you choose to make your reservations for A House For All Seasons with us. Rent A House For All Seasons in McCall today - just contact us!


« So called Accurate Predictions Failed!
Imagine that you are ensconced comfortably in a luxury car, stuck in traffic, when your car begins to slide forward ever so gently, without your realising it. The movement is so smooth that you are convinced your car is still stationary. In this state, as your car moves past the adjacent car, you could swear that the other car is moving gently backward. Alternatively, when the other car moves forward, you panic, thinking yours is sliding backwards. This is a phenomenon we also experience from time to time on railway platforms, when imagining our own carriage to be stationary on the platform, we assume the adjacent train to be moving in the reverse direction, when actually it is our train that is moving forward.
In ancient times, when the universe was believed to be geocentric, as the earth approached the outer planets (more distant from the sun than earth) in its journey around the sun, some of them seemed to be moving towards us. These planets were dubbed 'retrograde'. In reality, as we know today, the apparent or relative backward motion of that distant planet through space was caused by the simple fact of the earth moving faster in its orbit around the sun than the outer planet.
In the limited understanding of those times-that planets must move forward in the normal course of business-a planet moving backward must surely portend some evil. So, such movement was conventionally thought to be inauspicious, as it went counter to the 'natural' order of forward movement. And thus, for example, evolved the folklore of the wicked Shani, or Shani dosham, embodied in the retrograde movement of Saturn. Nonetheless, a retrograde planet causing some consternation to an ancient society may be quite acceptable, given the simplistic view of the universe at that time.
Mangal dosham-supposedly an astrological amalgamation of planets that occurs if Mars is in the second, fourth, seventh, eighth or twelfth house of the ascendant chart of Vedic astrology-involves the same problem. In most parts of India, a person born during this combination of stars is called a manglik. Being a manglik, like smoking, is considered injurious to the health-nay, the very life-of the spouse of the person, or, at the very least, to their matrimonial life. Apparently this is ascribed to the 'fiery' nature of Mars. Thanks to this belief, it is not unusual to find people (more often women) who remain unmarried till late into life.
The belief, once again, may be perfectly acceptable in a primitive society with a primitive understanding of the nature of the planets. In those times (as even today), having pronounced mortal danger for those unfortunate enough to be born under unfavourable stars, the priests and sages couldn't simply throw away their powers over the masses. After all, if they were the intermediaries between gods and the masses, they also had to suggest solutions. A solution, if any, would also reassure the masses that all wasn't lost, since help was on hand thanks to the priests. These priests gave birth to another belief: the 'fault' in a marriage in which the woman was a manglik could be corrected if she was first married off to a sacred peepul tree (ficus religiosa), banana tree or a silver or golden idol of Lord Vishnu-a practice called kumbh vivah. With the ire of Mars unleashed on the tree or the idol, the woman was now safe and could marry a mortal man. The system continues to this day.
Clearly, for the ancient sages, when science or scientific methods were thousands of years away, the challenges of establishing why a distant planet should cause marital disharmony on planet earth or how the antidote of kumbh vivah could neutralize the evil effect of Mars were unnecessary complications. In the present day, these have grown into beliefs, or parts of our heritage and culture, not to be questioned.
The sages at the time showed the same implicit faith in these beliefs that Aristotle did when he declared that women had fewer teeth than men. Just as it never occurred to Aristotle to line up a few men and women, have them open their mouths, count their teeth and compute an average for the two sexes, it never occurs to our society to investigate such misplaced beliefs by employing a dash of scientific temper, by following up on the lives of, say, fifty random manglik marriages to investigate if any systematic danger to life and limb accrued to the relevant spouse.
The real issue is not so much that people in their inertia continue to believe in such mumbo jumbo. The more important issue is why very few social or religious institutions come forward to free religion from ancient dogmas, given the twenty-first-century knowledge of the universe about a so-called retrograde planet, or why we do not have many more studies and public discussions on the observed absence of correlation between being a manglik and marital disharmony.
*Excerpted from Chapter 6, Ganesha on the Dashboard (Penguin India, 2010).


It has been more than two years since the decision was made to change our greens here at Rivers Edge Golf Club from Paspalum grass to Sunday Ultra-Dwarf Bermuda. The Paspalum was just not recovering from the colder winter weather as well as we would have liked and it became apparent that a change needed to be made. It was possibly the best decision our ownership and management team has ever made. Two years later the hybrid strain is thriving and the greens are now one of the many highlights of the golf course.
Sunday Ultra-Dwarf Bermuda is bred for growing in the southern climate that we have here in the Carolinas. It was first found at Cotton Creek Golf Club in Alabama back in 2007. The dense growth, reduced seed head, and lighter color are the main highlights that make it attractive to golf courses to want to use. Sunday characteristic includes a very fine grass blade, a soft feel, it grows in sand based soil and its growth is slower than most grasses. All of these things make it a superintendent's dream as far as maintenance and care go.
Now to the most important reason, we are happy we installed Sunday Ultra-Dwarf Bermuda on our greens….golfers love it!! On the list of the compliments that we receive in the golf shop when golfers finish their round, the quality of our putting surfaces is high on the list. Daily players make a point to tell our staff how much they enjoyed putting our greens. They rave about how true the roll is and how well surfaces receive approach shots.
Many businesses face cross-road like decisions during the course of their existence. Looking back to 2015 and the decision to upgrade our putting surfaces was our cross-road and we are all very happy with the decision and more importantly the result of that decision. We love seeing golfers walk off our golf course happy that they chose to play "The Edge" and we look forward to them returning again and again.
To make a tee time click on the "Tee Times" tab at the top of the page or call the golf shop at 910.755.3434 and any of our friendly golf staff will be happy to assist.


Address: Frente al costado Este del Servicentro El Higueron, San Pedro.
If you are looking for an environment full of surprises and a day full of new experiences, you can attend with your friends on Thursday, November 8, starting at 09:30 p.m. to Bar Al Anochecer, where you can live a Vinotinto Night with Miguel Mejía and Luis Fernado Castillo in concert with the best Latin American Music. Not only you can enjoy all those songs that still inspire us, but you can also remember musical pieces that until now you thought were forgotten. The cost of the entrance will include a drink to choose.
For more information and reservations, please contact the following number: 22341410 or visit the linked links.
Frente al costado Este del Servicentro El Higueron, San Pedro.


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Trent J. Perrotto
Headquarters, Washington
trent.j.perrotto@nasa.gov
Megan Watzke
Chandra X-ray Center, Cambridge, Mass.
mwatzke@cfa.harvard.edu
RELEASE : 12-056
NASA's Chandra Finds Fastest Wind from Stellar-Mass Black Hole
WASHINGTON -- Astronomers using NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory have clocked the fastest wind yet discovered blowing off a disk around a stellar-mass black hole. This result has important implications for understanding how this type of black hole behaves.
The record-breaking wind is moving about 20 million mph, or about 3 percent of the speed of light. This is nearly 10 times faster than had ever been seen from a stellar-mass black hole.
Stellar-mass black holes are born when extremely massive stars collapse. They typically weigh between five and 10 times the mass of the sun. The stellar-mass black hole powering this super wind is known as IGR J17091-3624, or IGR J17091 for short.
"This is like the cosmic equivalent of winds from a category five hurricane," said Ashley King from the University of Michigan, lead author of the study published in the Feb. 20 issue of The Astrophysical Journal Letters. "We weren't expecting to see such powerful winds from a black hole like this."
The wind speed in IGR J17091 matches some of the fastest winds generated by supermassive black holes, objects millions or billions of times more massive.
"It's a surprise this small black hole is able to muster the wind speeds we typically only see in the giant black holes," said co-author Jon M. Miller, also from the University of Michigan. "In other words, this black hole is performing well above its weight class."
Another unanticipated finding is that the wind, which comes from a disk of gas surrounding the black hole, may be carrying away more material than the black hole is capturing.
"Contrary to the popular perception of black holes pulling in all of the material that gets close, we estimate up to 95 percent of the matter in the disk around IGR J17091 is expelled by the wind," King said.
Unlike winds from hurricanes on Earth, the wind from IGR J17091 is blowing in many different directions. This pattern also distinguishes it from a jet, where material flows in highly focused beams perpendicular to the disk, often at nearly the speed of light.
Simultaneous observations made with the National Radio Astronomy Observatory's Expanded Very Large Array showed a radio jet from the black hole was not present when the ultra-fast wind was seen, although a radio jet is seen at other times. This agrees with observations of other stellar-mass black holes, providing further evidence the production of winds can stifle jets.
The high speed for the wind was estimated from a spectrum made by Chandra in 2011. Ions emit and absorb distinct features in spectra, which allow scientists to monitor them and their behavior. A Chandra spectrum of iron ions made two months earlier showed no evidence of the high-speed wind, meaning the wind likely turns on and off over time.
Astronomers believe that magnetic fields in the disks of black holes are responsible for producing both winds and jets. The geometry of the magnetic fields and rate at which material falls towards the black hole must influence whether jets or winds are produced.
IGR J17091 is a binary system in which a sun-like star orbits the black hole. It is found in the bulge of the Milky Way galaxy, about 28,000 light years away from Earth.
NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala., manages the Chandra program for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. The Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory controls Chandra's science and flight operations from Cambridge, Mass.
For more information about Chandra, visit:
For an additional interactive image, podcast and video on the finding, visit:
http://chandra.si.edu
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Last week we told you why October 7th is the feast of Our Lady of the Rosary and why you should pray the rosary, especially during October.
Today all I'm going to mention is that our entire rosary selection is 15% off for the rest of the month.
With little more than a month until the revised Mass translation goes into effect, now is the time to get serious about preparations.


text:
Q: Identify BlackBerry devices with at runtime with Java How to identify the Blackberry device currently running the application?
For example: how to identify whether the current device is a Storm or a Torch?
BlackBerry Storm 2 (9520/9550)
BlackBerry Tour (9630)

A: You have to use DeviceInfo.getDeviceId(); as shown here

A: Have you read this article and read the DeviceInfo.getDeviceName() and DeviceInfo.getDeviceId() documentation?


Did BMD release a developer SDK for Bluetooth connectivity?
If so, would it be possible to develop the technology to connect Bluetooth headphones to an URSA Mini Pro, thus avoiding cables?
The bluetooth unit inside the ursa is not capable of audio streams as it now looks like.. It is more a BLE Comm module..


Schlage's premium hardware finishes are designed to elevate your home's décor—even coordinating. A historic, brushed door knob finish that is full of charm.
Browse door knobs and levers by finish.. Please understand that different computer monitors will display the images on our site differently than others, and the .
Door hardware is often the first thing that visitors touch and feel before entering your home and can set the tone for the rest of your home. Browse our finishes for .
While choosing a doorknob color might seem like a minor task, it is just as important as choosing paint and furnishings because doorknobs also add personality .
Find the door knob, handle and hardware finish that perfectly complements your home's style.


text:
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Buy a premium University of Salford diploma, premium University of Salford degree
The University of Salford is a public university in Salford, Greater Manchester, England, 1 mile (1.6 km), west Manchester city centre. The Salford Royal College of Technology was established in 1896 and became an advanced technical college in 1956, and obtained university status in 1967 after the Robbins Higher Education Report.
It has 21,500 students and is located in a 160-acre (65-hectare) park on the banks of the Iwell River
The Royal Institute of Advanced Technology was renamed Salford University on February 10, 1967, when Queen Elizabeth II handed over the institution's Royal Charter. A multi-level chemical tower was built between Peel Building and Salford Library, Museum and Art Gallery in the 1960s, but it was demolished in the 1980s due to damage to the foundations of nearby buildings. The first president was Clifford Whitworth, and the main library of the university was named after him. The first prime minister was Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, who served as the president of the university until 1991. Prince Philip had a keen interest in the university during his tenure, and has continued since then, and visited the university's award-winning acoustic laboratory in 2008.
The separate University College of Salford merged with the university. In 1996, the University of Salford established a single institution.
In 2012, the University of Salford announced a partnership with the UK's largest arms company (BAE Systems) and four other universities in northwest England (Liverpool, Manchester, UCLAN and Lancaster) to launch the Gamma project. Develop an "autonomous system". On September 5, 2016, Salford represented the University Challenge for the third time, facing the Open University. The all-men's team with the poet John Cooper Clarke as the mascot lost the game 210 to 115.
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Kansas state parks to host 'First Day Hikes' to kick off the new year outdoors
Dec 26, 2018 - 12:01pm
Dylan Lysen
dlysen@ljworld.com
photo by: Rachel Seymour
This file photo from April 2007 shows a trail through wooded areas along the north shore of Clinton Lake.
The holiday season can be a time of eating tasty treats and lounging around, often leading to weight gain and a plan to shed the pounds with a New Year's resolution.
Luckily for Douglas County residents, the Kansas State Parks are offering a way to get a head start on those resolutions with a hike on the first day of the year.
The state parks will host "First Day Hikes" events on Jan. 1 at 19 locations across the state, including four not far from Lawrence, according to a news release.
The hiking trails for each event are about a mile or two on family-friendly terrain, with many taking hikers along the shores of large lakes, through rugged woodlands and across broad native prairies. Park staff will lead the treks to help educate hikers along the way.
The hikes will also be a good opportunity to view wildlife, like bald eagles, which will be in abundance in Kansas during the winter months.
Those who participate in the First Day Hikes are more likely to come back to state parks and hike throughout the year, said Linda Lanterman, state park director for the Kansas Department of Wildlife, Parks and Tourism.
"It's just an amazing way to get things started for a New Year," Lanterman said in the release. "For many, that First Day Hike has been the first time they've hiked in a state park. It's a fantastic introduction."
The hikes are free, but visitors with vehicles will need to pay $5 for a daily pass or purchase a $25 annual pass. All hike participants will receive a free long-sleeve shirt marking the event.
Here are the hikes that will be happening at local and nearby state parks:
• Clinton State Park, 798 N 1415 Road — Meet at the park office for a 1 p.m. hike on the North Shore Trail. The hike, up to 2 miles on moderate terrain, is for ages 5 and up.
• Hillsdale State Park, 26001 255 St., Paola — Meet at the park office for a 10:30 a.m. hike on the Hidden Springs Nature Trail. The hike, on 1.5 miles of easy terrain, is for ages 6 and up.
• Perry State Park, 5441 W Lake Road, Ozawkie — Meet at the Lake View parking lot for a 10 a.m. hike on the Nature Trail. The hike, 2.5 miles on easy to moderate terrain, is for ages 8 and up.
• Pomona State Park, 22900 Kansas Highway 368, Vassar — Meet at the park office for a 2 p.m. hike around several campgrounds. The hike, 1.5 miles on easy to moderate terrain, is for all ages.
50 years after moon landing, the thrill of Apollo 11 remains powerful for some Lawrence residents


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| Features
A FAST 1970 Dodge Challenger That Is Really Fast
Chris HolleyAuthor
In 1966, the SCCA Trans-American Sedan Championship for Manufacturers Series (later known as the Trans-Am Series) was established, and the expectation of the sanctioning body was the auto manufacturers would race vehicles that were constructed on their respective assembly lines. Quickly, this belief was upended as the manufacturers began constructing "off assembly line" vehicles, which were made specifically for the Trans-Am Series. The reason the vehicles were special assemblies, rather than production vehicles, was to gain an advantage and increase the odds of beating the other vehicle manufacturers, with the hopes of seeing a sales bump on the bottom line due to the racing success. This was the "win on Sunday, sell on Monday" theory that truly worked in the 1960s and 1970s.
As a result of the manufacturers' actions, the Trans-Am Series introduced regulations to try to level the playing ground and keep the escalating costs under control. One of the regulations required the manufacturers to build and sell a specific number of vehicles to the public. These street vehicles were required to be comparable to the Trans-Am race versions to satisfy the requirements. By 1970, Chrysler management decided to challenge the Ford Mustangs and Chevrolet Camaros that had dominated the 5.0L class for years. A directive was announced to put forth a concerted effort to win the 5.0L class championship with the newest offerings from Dodge as well as Plymouth.
On February 20, 1970, Dodge released a bulletin to their dealership network, introducing the A53 T/A package for the Challenger. While the 5.0L Trans-Am Series required an engine no larger than 305 cid, the street T/A had a 340-cid engine fed by three Holley 2bbl carburetors atop an Edelbrock intake manifold. The 340 had a pair of modified small-block cylinder heads and a valvetrain that was altered to match the cylinder heads. The drivetrain consisted of a TorqueFlite automatic transmission or an A-833 New Process four-speed manual transmission connected to a 3.55:1 geared 8 -inch rearend. The T/A was equipped with front disc brakes, a Rallye suspension that included sway bars on the front and rear and heavy-duty shock absorbers, and a low-restriction dual exhaust that had unique mufflers that dumped the exhaust just in front of the rear tires. The tire combination was one of the earliest designs of smaller front tires (E60 series) and larger rear tires (G60 series). Each bias-ply tire was mounted on a 15x7 stamped-steel wheel or steel Rallye wheel.
Tom Cannon of Glenside, Pennsylvania, has what appears to be one of those coveted A53 T/A package Challengers. In reality, his Dodge started its life as a B5 Blue Challenger with a 318 engine and a four-speed. Tom stated, "When I got the Challenger in 1996, it was a real pile. It needed quarters, trunk extensions, front aprons, the radiator support, and basically every bolt-on body part." The restoration and transformation of the rusty Challenger was squeezed in during Tom's free time between making a living and preparing a 1972 Charger for NHRA Stock Eliminator. It took Tom some time to gather the correct parts to convert the Challenger into a T/A, and during this time, Tom met some Mopar enthusiasts that were deeply involved in the YearOne FAST series (now called the FAST Racing Series). FAST stands for Factory Appearing, Stock Tire, meaning the vehicle must appear factory stock, and the vehicle must operate on the rolling stock of the era (bias-belted tires).
Once Tom found out about the FAST series, he abandoned the Stock Eliminator Charger project, and the Challenger project was moved to the forefront. "I like the look of a stock vehicle, but one that will go really fast," Tom shared, "And the FAST series looked like it was designed just for me." To get the Challenger ready to race, a 340 was machined to accept a 4.00-inch stroker crankshaft, resulting in a 416 cubes. A factory three two-barrel manifold was found, and reproduction Holley carburetors, matching hardware, and air cleaner assembly were fastened atop of the manifold. The front suspension was left stock with the exception of swapping of the torsion bars to Slant Six units, and the factory front shocks were replaced with 90/10 drag shocks. The front brakes were upgraded with Aerospace four-piston fixed calipers and cross-drilled rotors.
A pair of Tri-City Launcher leaf springs support the 8 -inch rearend housing that's packed with a 4.30:1 geared spool. The rearend multiplies the engine torque and passes it to a pair of 15x7 steel wheels wrapped by Goodyear Polyglas G60 tires. To help keep the Goodyears stuck to the tarmac, a pair of QA1 double-adjustable rear shocks have been slipped onto the factory shock mounting studs. For the transmission, Tom selected an aluminum A-833 four-speed, which doesn't sound like a successful formula when working with traction-limited Polyglas tires. If you did an inventory of all the FAST cars at any event, you'd usually just find Tom rowing his own while everybody else utilizes some type of automatic transmission. Tom says, "The stick shift makes me feel more connected with the car, and every now and then it will produce a hero run, which makes it worth it. I have had everything ready to install for years to switch the Challenger to a TorqueFlite, and I would probably win an event or two, but I can't pull the trigger — I just can't do it," Tom confessed as he chuckled.
Tom's personal best with the Challenger is an elapsed time of 11.35 seconds at 122.97 mph, which he recorded recently at Atco Dragway in New Jersey. Tom has logged a 1.71 second 60-foot time, but usually 60-foot times in the 1.80 second range are the average. To maintain traction on mediocre tracks, Tom has to add weight (a lot of weight), and he has to finesse the clutch pedal and loud pedal to keep the Polyglas tires on the edge of breaking loose.
Since Tom's first race in 2003, he has had two incidents that were real heart stoppers. The first occurred at Bristol Dragway in Tennessee on the third pass with his freshly built 416 engine. A piece of Mallory (heavy metal) broke free from the crankshaft, which caused a crescent-shaped opening in the oil pan, allowing the slippery stuff to spill onto the track. The oil-coated rear tires instantly lost traction, and the Challenger started to rapidly swap ends until the front end stabbed the opposite lane's retaining wall. The Challenger continued to rotate, resulting in the rear corner of the Challenger tapping the wall as well. Tom hopped out of the Challenger, expecting the worst, but the damage was much less than he anticipated. Tom loaded up and headed home, but he got lost. He stopped for directions at a shop, and it turned out a professional welder was on duty. The welder fixed the pan, and was able to reweld the Mallory to the crankshaft. To reinstall the Mallory, a lot of hammering and grinding was necessary, which is something nobody wants to see on their new engine, but once the job was complete, everything was buttoned up, and the engine ran flawlessly. Tom decided to peel the damaged body parts from the Challenger and return to the track for the next day's competition. The Challenger's body was in need of a rebuild, but he was able to race.
Moving forward a couple of years, Tom was at Lebanon Valley Dragway in New York when he power-shifted the transmission into Third gear at the same moment the rear tires rolled into an undetected pool of coolant that had leaked from the prior competitor. The Challenger took off so rapidly that Tom had zero chance to recover, and just as before, he put the Challenger into the wall. Luckily, the damage was restricted to the rear of the Challenger this time. The Challenger was rebuilt (yet again), and Tom and the Challenger have been incident-free for over a decade.
Tom proves that these cars are meant to be driven, and for the last 15 years, the Factory Appearing Stock Tire class has provided an outlet for his multi-time restored and beautifully detailed Challenger to not just be driven, but driven hard. While Tom doesn't race the Challenger in the same sanctioning body that Chrysler had envisioned, Tom has taken advantage of the factory performance parts Chrysler designed, and he has pushed the limits of those parts beyond any imaginable performance envisioned in 1970. How did Tom do it? Easy. He built it, rebuilt it, and rebuilt it again until the Challenger was a fast, FAST car.
1970 Dodge Challenger T/A
Tom Cannon; Glenside, PA
Type: 416-cid (340-cid block) V-8
Bore: 4.070 inches (0.030-inch overbore)
Stroke: 4.000 inches
Cylinder heads: cast-iron heavily ported 915 "J" heads, 2.05-inch intake valves, 1.60-inch exhaust valves, 11/32-inch valve stems
Pistons: Diamond flat-tops
Crank: 4-inch Mopar Performance forged steel
Rods: Eagle H-beam
Camshaft: Crane Cams solid roller
Valve Lift: .630-inch intake, .630-inch exhaust
Duration: 244 degrees
Induction: stock, Edelbrock manifold with three Holley two-barrel carburetorsIgnition: MSD programmable 6AL2 with factory Chrysler distributor
Exhaust: stock, dual exhaust, cast-iron manifolds, X-pipe, 2.5-inch pipes
Cooling system: stock, mechanically driven water pump, copper/brass radiator, 18-quart capacity
Engine built by: short-block machined by Chase Machine in northeast Philadelphia
Cylinder heads prepared by: Greg Gessler
Transmission: four-speed, New Process A-833, 18-spline face-plated with adjustable iron clutch
Shifter: Hurst floor shifter
Rear Axle: 8 -inch spool; 4.30:1 gear ratio
Front Suspension: stock, independent, unequal-length upper and lower control arms with slant-six torsion bars, 90/10 race shock absorbers
Rear Suspension: Hotchkis-type, Tri-City Launcher semi-elliptic leaf springs, QA1 double-adjustable rear shock absorbers
Steering: stock, recirculating ball, manual steering
Brakes, front: stock, Aerospace four-piston fixed calipers, cross-drilled rotors
Brakes, rear: stock drums
Wheels: 15x7 steel wheels with dog-dish hubcaps
Tires: F60-15 (front) and G60-15 (rear) Goodyear polyglas, two-ply nylon, tubeless (rear non-FAST events), G60-15 American Racer bias-ply


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Archive for Bayes' Theorem
Bayes' Theorem or Price's Theorem?
Posted in History, The Universe and Stuff with tags Bayes' Theorem, Richard Price on December 4, 2015 by telescoper
I'm indebted to a fellow blogger for drawing my attention to the person shown in the above picture, Dr Richard Price who has been described as "the most original thinker ever born in Wales", and who has a Society named after him.
Price was a moral philosopher, nonconformist preacher and also a mathematician of some note. Of particular interest to this blog is the role he played in the development of what is now known as Bayes' Theorem, after the Reverend Thomas Bayes.
However, the paper in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society that contains the first published form of this theorem was not published until 1763, over a year after Bayes' death and, as you can see if you follow the link, is attributed jointly to "Mr Bayes and Mr Price". It appears that there was an original manuscript written by Bayes around about 1755 which was communicated to Price when Bayes died in 1761 and then presented for publication over a year later; Price had been asked to act as "literary executor" of Bayes' estate.
Unfortunately the original manuscript has never been found and it is therefore impossible to say for sure how much Price contributed to the final version. However, a relatively recent and very interesting article raises this question, and argues (reasonably convincingly to my mind) that Bayes' part stops at page 14 of 32 pages. It is therefore quite possible that Price wrote over half the paper himself although most historical discussions of this matter simple state that Price "edited" Bayes' work.
It has to be said that the paper is not exactly a model of clarity and pertains only to a particular case of the full theorem. The form in general use today was first published by Laplace in 1812, so it should really be called Laplace's Theorem, but Laplace did give generous credit to the work of Bayes which is no doubt why the name stuck.
I don't suppose we will know for sure exactly how much Price contributed to the development of Bayes' theorem, but this may be yet another example of the law that any result in science or mathematics that has a person's name attached to it has the wrong name attached to it!
Finally, I will mention that the Richard Price Society has started a petition to the Welsh government. I'm taking the liberty of copying the purpose of this petition here:
We call on the Welsh government to acknowledge the important contribution of Dr Richard Price not only to the eighteenth century Enlightenment, but also to the making of the modern world that we live in today, and develop his birthplace and childhood home into a visitor information centre where people of all nationalities and ages can discover how his significant contributions to theology, mathematics and philosophy have shaped the modern world.
Tynton Farm in Llangeinor, the birthplace and childhood home of Dr Richard Price is for sale. Once derelict, the farm has been sensitively restored and almost all of the original features have been preserved. The Richard Price Society is aware that the house attracts visitors from all corners of the globe and this is attested by the previous owner's Visitors Book that was signed by visitors to the farm. The position of the farm and its provenance would make it an ideal learning centre where people can find out just what an important person he was and remains. This is an opportunity to buy the property at market value and help celebrate the achievements of Wales' intellectual giant and apostle of liberty.
I have signed it, and hope you will consider doing likewise!
Bayes, Laplace and Bayes' Theorem
Posted in Bad Statistics with tags Bayes' Theorem, Bayesian Inference, binomial distribution, Laplace, mathematics, probability, statistics, Stigler's Law of Eponymy, Thomas Bayes on October 1, 2014 by telescoper
A couple of interesting pieces have appeared which discuss Bayesian reasoning in the popular media. One is by Jon Butterworth in his Grauniad science blog and the other is a feature article in the New York Times. I'm in early today because I have an all-day Teaching and Learning Strategy Meeting so before I disappear for that I thought I'd post a quick bit of background.
One way to get to Bayes' Theorem is by starting with
where I refer to three logical propositions A, B and C and the vertical bar "|" denotes conditioning, i.e. means the probability of A being true given the assumed truth of B; "AB" means "A and B", etc. This basically follows from the fact that "A and B" must always be equivalent to "B and A". Bayes' theorem then follows straightforwardly as
Many versions of this, including the one in Jon Butterworth's blog, exclude the third proposition and refer to A and B only. I prefer to keep an extra one in there to remind us that every statement about probability depends on information either known or assumed to be known; any proper statement of probability requires this information to be stated clearly and used appropriately but sadly this requirement is frequently ignored.
Although this is called Bayes' theorem, the general form of it as stated here was actually first written down not by Bayes, but by Laplace. What Bayes did was derive the special case of this formula for "inverting" the binomial distribution. This distribution gives the probability of x successes in n independent "trials" each having the same probability of success, p; each "trial" has only two possible outcomes ("success" or "failure"). Trials like this are usually called Bernoulli trials, after Daniel Bernoulli. If we ask the question "what is the probability of exactly x successes from the possible n?", the answer is given by the binomial distribution:
is the number of distinct combinations of x objects that can be drawn from a pool of n.
You can probably see immediately how this arises. The probability of x consecutive successes is p multiplied by itself x times, or px. The probability of (n-x) successive failures is similarly (1-p)n-x. The last two terms basically therefore tell us the probability that we have exactly x successes (since there must be n-x failures). The combinatorial factor in front takes account of the fact that the ordering of successes and failures doesn't matter.
The binomial distribution applies, for example, to repeated tosses of a coin, in which case p is taken to be 0.5 for a fair coin. A biased coin might have a different value of p, but as long as the tosses are independent the formula still applies. The binomial distribution also applies to problems involving drawing balls from urns: it works exactly if the balls are replaced in the urn after each draw, but it also applies approximately without replacement, as long as the number of draws is much smaller than the number of balls in the urn. I leave it as an exercise to calculate the expectation value of the binomial distribution, but the result is not surprising: E(X)=np. If you toss a fair coin ten times the expectation value for the number of heads is 10 times 0.5, which is five. No surprise there. After another bit of maths, the variance of the distribution can also be found. It is np(1-p).
So this gives us the probability of x given a fixed value of p. Bayes was interested in the inverse of this result, the probability of p given x. In other words, Bayes was interested in the answer to the question "If I perform n independent trials and get x successes, what is the probability distribution of p?". This is a classic example of inverse reasoning, in that it involved turning something like P(A|BC) into something like P(B|AC), which is what is achieved by the theorem stated at the start of this post.
Bayes got the correct answer for his problem, eventually, but by very convoluted reasoning. In my opinion it is quite difficult to justify the name Bayes' theorem based on what he actually did, although Laplace did specifically acknowledge this contribution when he derived the general result later, which is no doubt why the theorem is always named in Bayes' honour.
This is not the only example in science where the wrong person's name is attached to a result or discovery. Stigler's Law of Eponymy strikes again!
So who was the mysterious mathematician behind this result? Thomas Bayes was born in 1702, son of Joshua Bayes, who was a Fellow of the Royal Society (FRS) and one of the very first nonconformist ministers to be ordained in England. Thomas was himself ordained and for a while worked with his father in the Presbyterian Meeting House in Leather Lane, near Holborn in London. In 1720 he was a minister in Tunbridge Wells, in Kent. He retired from the church in 1752 and died in 1761. Thomas Bayes didn't publish a single paper on mathematics in his own name during his lifetime but was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society (FRS) in 1742.
The paper containing the theorem that now bears his name was published posthumously in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London in 1763. In his great Philosophical Essay on Probabilities Laplace wrote:
Bayes, in the Transactions Philosophiques of the Year 1763, sought directly the probability that the possibilities indicated by past experiences are comprised within given limits; and he has arrived at this in a refined and very ingenious manner, although a little perplexing.
The reasoning in the 1763 paper is indeed perplexing, and I remain convinced that the general form we now we refer to as Bayes' Theorem should really be called Laplace's Theorem. Nevertheless, Bayes did establish an extremely important principle that is reflected in the title of the New York Times piece I referred to at the start of this piece. In a nutshell this is that probabilities of future events can be updated on the basis of past measurements or, as I prefer to put it, "one person's posterior is another's prior".
Bayes in the dock (again)
Posted in Bad Statistics with tags Bayes' Theorem, Bayesian Inference, Court of Appeal, Courts, Frequentist, Sally Clark on February 28, 2013 by telescoper
This morning on Twitter there appeared a link to a blog post reporting that the Court of Appeal had rejected the use of Bayesian probability in legal cases. I recommend anyone interested in probability to read it, as it gives a fascinating insight into how poorly the concept is understood.
Although this is a new report about a new case, it's actually not an entirely new conclusion. I blogged about a similar case a couple of years ago, in fact. The earlier story n concerned an erroneous argument given during a trial about the significance of a match found between a footprint found at a crime scene and footwear belonging to a suspect. The judge took exception to the fact that the figures being used were not known sufficiently accurately to make a reliable assessment, and thus decided that Bayes' theorem shouldn't be used in court unless the data involved in its application were "firm".
If you read the Guardian article to which I've provided a link you will see that there's a lot of reaction from the legal establishment and statisticians about this, focussing on the forensic use of probabilistic reasoning. This all reminds me of the tragedy of the Sally Clark case and what a disgrace it is that nothing has been done since then to improve the misrepresentation of statistical arguments in trials. Some of my Bayesian colleagues have expressed dismay at the judge's opinion.
My reaction to this affair is more muted than you would probably expect. First thing to say is that this is really not an issue relating to the Bayesian versus frequentist debate at all. It's about a straightforward application of Bayes' theorem which, as its name suggests, is a theorem; actually it's just a straightforward consequence of the sum and product laws of the calculus of probabilities. No-one, not even the most die-hard frequentist, would argue that Bayes' theorem is false. What happened in this case is that an "expert" applied Bayes' theorem to unreliable data and by so doing obtained misleading results. The issue is not Bayes' theorem per se, but the application of it to inaccurate data. Garbage in, garbage out. There's no place for garbage in the courtroom, so in my opinion the judge was quite right to throw this particular argument out.
But while I'm on the subject of using Bayesian logic in the courts, let me add a few wider comments. First, I think that Bayesian reasoning provides a rigorous mathematical foundation for the process of assessing quantitatively the extent to which evidence supports a given theory or interpretation. As such it describes accurately how scientific investigations proceed by updating probabilities in the light of new data. It also describes how a criminal investigation works too.
What Bayesian inference is not good at is achieving closure in the form of a definite verdict. There are two sides to this. One is that the maxim "innocent until proven guilty" cannot be incorporated in Bayesian reasoning. If one assigns a zero prior probability of guilt then no amount of evidence will be able to change this into a non-zero posterior probability; the required burden is infinite. On the other hand, there is the problem that the jury must decide guilt in a criminal trial "beyond reasonable doubt". But how much doubt is reasonable, exactly? And will a jury understand a probabilistic argument anyway?
In pure science we never really need to achieve this kind of closure, collapsing the broad range of probability into a simple "true" or "false", because this is a process of continual investigation. It's a reasonable inference, for example, based on Supernovae and other observations that the Universe is accelerating. But is it proven that this is so? I'd say "no", and don't think my doubts are at all unreasonable…
So what I'd say is that while statistical arguments are extremely important for investigating crimes – narrowing down the field of suspects, assessing the reliability of evidence, establishing lines of inquiry, and so on – I don't think they should ever play a central role once the case has been brought to court unless there's much clearer guidance given to juries and stricter monitoring of so-called "expert" witnesses.
I'm sure various readers will wish to express diverse opinions on this case so, as usual, please feel free to contribute through the box below!
Bayes' Theorem and the Search for Supersymmetry
Posted in The Universe and Stuff with tags Bayes' Theorem, Large Hadron Collider, Particle Physics, probability, Supersymmetry on May 13, 2012 by telescoper
Interesting comments about Bayes' theorem and the prospects for detecting supersymmetry at the Large Hadron Collider. This piece explains how a non-detection isn't always "absence of evidence" but can indeed by "evidence of absence". It's also worth reading the comments if you're wondering whether what people say about Lubos Motl is actually true…
viXra log
Here's a puzzle. There are three cups upside down on a table. You friend tells you that a pea is hidden under one of them. Based on past experience you estimate that there is a 90% probability that this is true. You turn over two cups and don't find the pea. What is the probability now that there is a pea underneath? You may want to think about this before reading on.
Naively you might think that two-thirds of the parameter space has been eliminated, so the probability has gone from 90% to 30%, but this is quite wrong. You can use Bayes Theorem to get the correct answer but let me give you a more intuitive frequentist answer. The situation can be models by imagining that there are thirty initial possibilities with equal probability. Nine of them have a pea under the first cup, nine more under the second and nine more under the third…
Bayes in the Dock
Posted in Bad Statistics with tags Bayes' Theorem, Bayesian Inference, Courts, Frequentist, Sally Clark on October 6, 2011 by telescoper
A few days ago John Peacock sent me a link to an interesting story about the use of Bayes' theorem in legal proceedings and I've been meaning to post about it but haven't had the time. I get the distinct feeling that John, who is of the frequentist persuasion, feels a certain amount of delight that the beastly Bayesians have got their comeuppance at last.
The story in question concerns an erroneous argument given during a trial about the significance of a match found between a footprint found at a crime scene and footwear belonging to a suspect. The judge took exception to the fact that the figures being used were not known sufficiently accurately to make a reliable assessment, and thus decided that Bayes' theorem shouldn't be used in court unless the data involved in its application were "firm".
If you read the Guardian article you will see that there's a lot of reaction from the legal establishment and statisticians about this, focussing on the forensic use of probabilistic reasoning. This all reminds me of the tragedy of the Sally Clark case and what a disgrace it is that nothing has been done since then to improve the misrepresentation of statistical arguments in trials. Some of my Bayesian colleagues have expressed dismay at the judge's opinion, which no doubt pleases Professor Peacock no end.
So what I'd say is that while statistical arguments are extremely important for investigating crimes – narrowing down the field of suspects, assessing the reliability of evidence, establishing lines of inquiry, and so on – I don't think they should ever play a central role once the case has been brought to court unless there's much clearer guidance given to juries on how to use it and stricter monitoring of so-called "expert" witnesses.
Bayes and his Theorem
Posted in Bad Statistics with tags Bayes' Theorem, binomial distribution, Laplace, mathematics, probability, statistics, Thomas Bayes on November 23, 2010 by telescoper
My earlier post on Bayesian probability seems to have generated quite a lot of readers, so this lunchtime I thought I'd add a little bit of background. The previous discussion started from the result
Although this is called Bayes' theorem, the general form of it as stated here was actually first written down, not by Bayes but by Laplace. What Bayes' did was derive the special case of this formula for "inverting" the binomial distribution. This distribution gives the probability of x successes in n independent "trials" each having the same probability of success, p; each "trial" has only two possible outcomes ("success" or "failure"). Trials like this are usually called Bernoulli trials, after Daniel Bernoulli. If we ask the question "what is the probability of exactly x successes from the possible n?", the answer is given by the binomial distribution:
So this gives us the probability of x given a fixed value of p. Bayes was interested in the inverse of this result, the probability of p given x. In other words, Bayes was interested in the answer to the question "If I perform n independent trials and get x successes, what is the probability distribution of p?". This is a classic example of inverse reasoning. He got the correct answer, eventually, but by very convoluted reasoning. In my opinion it is quite difficult to justify the name Bayes' theorem based on what he actually did, although Laplace did specifically acknowledge this contribution when he derived the general result later, which is no doubt why the theorem is always named in Bayes' honour.
This is not the only example in science where the wrong person's name is attached to a result or discovery. In fact, it is almost a law of Nature that any theorem that has a name has the wrong name. I propose that this observation should henceforth be known as Coles' Law.
So who was the mysterious mathematician behind this result? Thomas Bayes was born in 1702, son of Joshua Bayes, who was a Fellow of the Royal Society (FRS) and one of the very first nonconformist ministers to be ordained in England. Thomas was himself ordained and for a while worked with his father in the Presbyterian Meeting House in Leather Lane, near Holborn in London. In 1720 he was a minister in Tunbridge Wells, in Kent. He retired from the church in 1752 and died in 1761. Thomas Bayes didn't publish a single paper on mathematics in his own name during his lifetime but despite this was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society (FRS) in 1742. Presumably he had Friends of the Right Sort. He did however write a paper on fluxions in 1736, which was published anonymously. This was probably the grounds on which he was elected an FRS.
The paper containing the theorem that now bears his name was published posthumously in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London in 1764.
P.S. I understand that the authenticity of the picture is open to question. Whoever it actually is, he looks to me a bit like Laurence Olivier…


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Q: targeting parent element with twitter button i'm trying to do something a little bit tricky here. i'm having a FRAMESET page with 2 frames , header and content (this one is variable). The page url looks like page.php?url=xxx (xxx will be the content frame). What i'm trying to do is to put a twitter share button on the top header frame and make it share the whole page. Here's the twitter js code :

To show the button i have to put this code :
Tweeter

I tried to put :
target="_parent"

on the seconde code but it didn't work , it shared only the header frame.

A: Why not have the Twitter button point directly to your complete URL?
Tweeter

Where X is yourdomain.com/page.php?url=xxx


text:
For water or sewer emergencies call 830-265-8148
Monday-Friday 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m
City Hall Phone (830) 693-3830
Water Restriction Notice
Fishing in Texas Hill Country
Local Taxes
Get an Agenda
Obtain Permit
Report Concern
Our Water Utilities employees are committed to providing superior drinking water as well as timely and outstanding customer service. If you have any questions, comments, or concerns please do not hesitate to contact me or a member of our staff.
The water distribution system ranges in size from two-inches in diameter to eight inches in diameter. Static water pressure on the system ranges from 35 psi to 125 psi.
All mains and appurtenances are installed in accordance with applicable codes adopted by the City Council. Actual construction is performed by the City or private contractors as circumstances warrant.
Installation of water connection (taps) and service connections from the main to a point outside of the meter set is performed by employees of the Water Department or a contractor approved by the Director of Public Works and Water Utilities.
A charge is made by the Department for each new tapping of the water mains for a connection. This charge is determined by the size of the connection and the size of the meter.
The department bears full responsibility for maintenance of the water distribution system through the customer's meter. The property owner is responsible for remedies of water problems on private property.
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3808 Cottonwood Drive
Cottonwood Shores, Texas 78657
Monday - Friday 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m
Site Designed and Hosted by: Cave Consulting
© 2023 The City of Cottonwood Shores.


It's always a good day when you can have dessert for breakfast! This baked blueberry custard recipe can be served at any temperature and at any time of day—breakfast or dessert.
We were inspired to turn the traditional French dessert known as 'clafoutis' when made with cherries, into an everyday breakfast dessert. It may sound fancy, but it is really just mixing up crepe batter, adding fruit and baking!
If you decide to serve it as a sweet treat, top it off with a sprinkling of powdered sugar and a bit of crème anglaise or homemade whipped cream. You'll be licking your plate, trust us!
Place a rack in the center of the oven and preheat to 375 degrees. Grease a 9" pie dish with 1 Tbsp of unsalted butter and set aside.
Add the sugar, eggs, half-and-half or whipping cream, vanilla, liqueur, lemon zest and salt to a blender and pulse several times to blend the ingredients completely. Add the flour and blend on low speed for 1 full minute to form a silky-smooth batter.
Pour the batter into the prepared dish then scatter the blueberries evenly across the top of the batter. Place the dish or skillet onto a rimmed baking sheet (just in case it flows over) and bake for 35-40 minutes. The edges will be golden-brown and the center will be firm to the touch or just very slightly wobbly.
Remove from the oven and allow to cool slightly before dusting with powdered sugar and serving.
You can use any berry your heart desires to fill this recipe. Try strawberries or blackberries!


A very experienced Afghan Construction Company working in Afghanistan as design-Build and Build design construction firm, consisting of a conservative, learning and fast-growing environment for personnel.
a)Drugs addicted individuals will not be considered.
b)Background check will be conducted and if any criminal or health issues discovered individual will not be considered.
a)Driver will be also required to maintain / clean and fix the possible problem of the vehicles.
b)Driver will be also required to do chores works as they become available.
a)Availability of a valid driving license.
b)Minimum 3 years driving experience is required.
c)An SCC standard warranty will be required from the selected applicant.
d)Selected applicant for driver position would be required to travel and work long and missed out hours.


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text:
Woodstock Way owners invite the public to walkthrough of Lasher Funeral Home property
by Nick Henderson
(Photo by Dion Ogust)
Potential developers of the Lasher Funeral Home property in Woodstock have invited neighbors and the general public to walk the property and see what it planned, hoping the visuals will allay fears of large commercial development.
Jesse Halliburton and Ryan Giuliani, owners of the Woodstock Way Hotel, said at the March 23 Woodstock Town Board meeting they plan to develop five homes on the property located at 100 Tinker Street.
"We are not planning to cover a lot of that land. There is still going to be an open meadow between what we are doing," Halliburton said. "I think we took the time to honor the land and not overdevelop it."
Giuliani noted that current zoning permits 84 homes on the land and they decided against it. "Our investors wanted to do that. We asked them to leave the deal," Giuliani said.
The public is invited to attend the walkthrough at 100 Tinker Street on March 26 at 10 a.m.
"We invite people to come out Friday and see what we plan to do," Halliburton said.
In the meantime, the Lasher Funeral Home has merged with the E.B. Gormley Funeral Home and the Seamon-Wilsey Funeral Home who have taken over records management of the Lasher Funeral Home and will handle all pre-arranged services.
Lenape Elementary amphitheater design change gets overwhelming School Board support
Hudson River Maritime Museum hosts lecture on Grant's Tomb
Nick Henderson
Nick Henderson was raised in Woodstock starting at the age of three and attended Onteora schools, then SUNY New Paltz after spending a year at SUNY Potsdam under the misguided belief he would become a music teacher. He became the news director at college radio station WFNP, where he caught the journalism bug and the rest is history. He spent four years as City Hall reporter for Foster's Daily Democrat in Dover, NH, then moved back to Woodstock in 2003 and worked on the Daily Freeman copy desk until 2013. He has covered Woodstock for Ulster Publishing since early 2014.
Two hurt in icy conditions in Shandaken
TerraCottage pottery studio coming to New Paltz's Huguenot Street
New Paltz's Christmas tree pickup plan
School bus strikes, kills 59-year old Kingston resident (updated)
FCC broadband map identifying County's unserved communities crucial in targeting funding
Hurley Transfer station goes cashless while raising rates
Hudson River Maritime Museum hosts lecture on Grant's Tomb


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What are the exam techniques for p2 Section A & B questions? How to do well for p2 Section B questions?
Please study about the revision and re take guides given on ACCA website. All relevant information are mention there.


text:
2021 WJLC
Haudenosaunee
MEMBER NATION - Haudenosaunee
Haudenosaunee Dehontsigwaehs
ABOUT "Where Lacrosse Tradition Meets the Present Day". An IIJL Founding Member Nations, the game of lacrosse is a gift from our creator for healing and the proper application of mind, body, and spirit introduced at the time of creation. The Haudenosaunee are the founders of the original game of dehontsigwaehs (Dey-hoon-chee-gwa-ehs), translation "they bump hips".
WEBSITE www.dehontsigwaehs.com
As an IIJL Founding Member Nation, operated by Gewas Schindler, Haudenosaunee (formerly known as Iroquois) compete at each and every IIJL World Junior Lacrosse Championship. In preparation for the 2022 IIJL World Junior Lacrosse Championship, Haudenosaunee will be holding tryouts with dates and locations to be announced.
Haudenosaunee is accepting interest to participate (complete the form below) from any and all eligible players ages sixteen (16) to twenty (20) who are interested in competing at any or all of the combine sessions. Players must be born on or between January 1, 2002 – December 31, 2006. Therefore, a player must not be or be turning twenty one (21) years of age in 2022. Interested players must be a member of the Haudenosaunee Confederacy; Cayuga, Mohawk, Onondaga, Oneida, Seneca, or Tuscarora.
DATE: AUGUST 8 - 14, 2021
LOCATION: WINNIPEG, MANITOBA, CANADA
Open to Haudenosaunee (Iroquois) players who qualifies under the eligibility requirement conditions. Players must be born on or between January 1, 2002 – December 31, 2006, between twenty (20) and sixteen (16), and not be or be turning twenty one (21) years of age in 2022.
Year of Birth (example: 2002)
Dominant Hand LeftRight
Position GoaltenderDefenceTransitionOffence
Nation CayugaMohawkOnondagaOneidaSenecaTuscarora
Submission of this Interest to Participate form does not guarantee a prospective player a spot on the Haudenosaunee 2021 IIJL World Junior Lacrosse Championship roster or serve as a reservation. Once an Interest to Participate form is submitted a Haudenosaunee staff member will contact and provide the prospective player with further information and instructions. Qualified prospective players are encouraged to complete the Interest to Participate form immediately as the selection process will be expedited to prepare for the 2021 IIJL World Junior Lacrosse Championship.
Total USD
Thank you for your interest, your information has been submitted and a confirmation email has been said to the address provided.
Haudenosaunee Social
Haudenosaunee News
Name Amendment to Founding Member Nation
Iroquois Announce Coaching Staff for 2020 IIJL World Junior Lacrosse Championship
Iroquois Announce Combines in Preparation of 2020 IIJL World Junior Lacrosse Championship
Canada Repeats as World Junior Champions Overcoming Strong Iroquois Start
Iroquois Advance to Gold Medal Game with Decisive Win Over United States
Iroquois Finish Top of Group B with Win Over Poland
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I stir into semi-consciousness at 5:08 a.m., my senses finally making contact with the ringing of my watch alarm that has been sounding for the last eight minutes. I got little sleep last night as I rolled up to the Leadville Fish Hatchery after dark. I read well past midnight, completely engrossed in Walter Bonatti's The Mountains of My Life. I have not read close to as much as I would like this summer with the opportunities to do so usually to the detriment of sleep. The full moon shines bright out of my truck window as I pull myself out of my cot without the need of a headlamp to prepare breakfast. I knock on Tony's truck window to wake him. He gets up immediately and starts making coffee. I have my bag packed with a light camping setup and three days worth of food.
I have been busy this past month, with numerous guests staying at my house, so I wanted to venture out alone for a few days and nights into the Sawatch to recalibrate before leaving on a long trip to Europe the following week. I am also looking to get my hiking legs back under me for Tor des Géants, which is five weeks away, and make sure my quadricep tear has fully healed. Tony and I chat about the best lines to take on each of the 14ers to come, a mental, visual refresher for me of some of Colorado's most spectacular hiking and running terrain.
I set off at sunrise at an easy clip through the woods up the eastern flank of Mount Massive. It is a glorious morning with only a slight nip of fall in the air. Removing any expectation of time or effort, the climb comes easy and I am nearly surprised when I top out on the summit ridge. I snap a couple photos on a throwaway film camera I had picked up in Japan, but forgotten about it until I found it in the bag I am using for this trip. I find hiking downhill on a steep trail to be strenuous, so I run/hop down the southwest slopes to the North Halfmoon Creek Trailhead.
The river crossing to gain the road that leads to the west ridge of Mount Elbert is quite a bit shallower, with a less-powerful flow than three weeks ago when I was here with Seb. He was nearly thigh deep crossing the creek and had to carry a large rock in his hands to weigh himself down–an amusing memory.
Up a little ways, I stop to rehydrate at a small, clean water source, drinking several bottles as I know that the exposed west ridge always takes its toll. As I gain elevation on the lower sandy slopes, I find myself stopping every few hundred feet, not from the obvious difficulty of the terrain, but more from a thought stunting my forward progress. My wife was quite sick a few weeks ago and I am suddenly overcome by a wave of emotion thinking about the situation despite the fact that she is now fully recovered. The issue was serious enough to make me pause, to take a step back and truly appreciate what is important to me in life. It is cliché to say that love and sharing a life with someone is truly what matters most, but at the height of vulnerability it is impossible to hide real emotion. Something inside of me tells me it is time to go home, to spend my remaining days in Colorado with Deanne rather than alone in the mountains.
There is a certain degree of selfishness in mountain pursuits, a longing for something more than what is right in front of you. I have often been asked what I mean by "having a relationship with the mountain," to which I have answered something along the lines of "the mountain gives and it takes, creating an exchange between the traveler and the environment." In this moment, I do not feel any exchange with the mountain, rather a shift in perspective. I bring a certain viewpoint, baggage, into the hills and sometimes leave transformed. Yet, the mountain remains indifferent to my musings and reflections, to my joy and fear. That transformation happens within, triggered by the journey I have undertaken. Sometimes I need to go far and hard to find what I am looking for, other times like today, a simple walk will suffice.
The wind picks up and blows a grouse feather out from the mesh of my hat that I had placed there earlier. I watch it flutter, pausing momentarily on a tuft of grass before disappearing out of sight. The hat was given to me by my good friend Willie, who visited last week from Montana. It is faded black, with a large elk and the state's name on it. I had not seen Willie since college over eight years ago, but we picked right back up as if we had never been apart–monkeying around in the hills, drinking too much, and overall just having a good laugh. True friendship is that way. True love is that way also. While the solitude of being in the mountains brings me balance, it also reinforces my need to share this life with my family and friends–birds of a feather.
I scramble up the last thousand feet to the summit of Elbert and text Tony to let him know I no longer need him to pick me up in a few days. I tell him my instincts are calling me home and I cannot really explain why. He replies, "That's what mountains are for, thought/reflection." Indeed, they are.
What powers do the mountains have over you, over influencing your mind to change its plans or, perhaps, its will?
Have the mountains reminded you about the relationships you have with people at home, or at the very least people not on the mountain with you?
Thanks Joe. I always look forward to the meaning in your writing and to the beautiful photos. Regarding the pictures, do you have any suggestions for lightweight cameras? Or can you really capture the image that way with a disposable film camera from Japan?
Thanks, Eric. I use my iPhone a lot when running. It's decent quality for getting snaps on the go.
Can't tell you how many times I've felt this exact emotion! Thanks for keeping it real!
Gorgeous writing, Joe! Heal up, and the mountains will embrace you again soon enough.


MRT:R8 Sanduo Shopping District Station Ex.2,10 mins on foot.
P No children under 6 allowed. Children aged 6 to 12 must be accompanied by an adult.
PG 12 No one under 12 allowed.
PG 15 No one under 15 allowed.
R No one under 18 allowed.


text:
Cowboy Haven
By Michaela O'Brien | July 25, 2017
All photos © Michaela O'Brien
Artist: Michaela O'Brien
Project: Love Valley
Description: Michaela O'Brien's Love Valley captures life in a North Carolina township founded as a "cowboy haven" in 1954. At .2 square miles, with a population hovering around 100, Love Valley "brings to mind a John Wayne movie." Allowing only foot and horse traffic, it "also conjures an eerie ghostliness at quieter times of day." O'Brien's photographs present a "fragmented narrative of frontier freedom" in which "the complete story is eschewed for the remains: a constellation of biblical and patriotic gestures, and what lies at the heart of it all, the desire to start over."
https://www.oxfordamerican.org/item/1276-cowboy-haven#sigProIde26fa2e6da
Michaela O'Brien
Michaela O'Brien
Michaela O'Brien is a documentary artist, photographer, and filmmaker currently based in Durham, NC. She holds an MFA in Experimental and Documentary Arts from Duke University. Her work includes independent documentaries for broadcast, award-winning audiovisual installations, client-based archival research, and interactive videos for a variety of acclaimed museums. Her photographic and moving image works have been featured in galleries and film festivals worldwide. She is currently teaching in the department of Art, Art History and Visual Studies at Duke University.


Ana Monaco: By day, I'm a Film Student (attending the top Art School in the world!) media entrepreneur, writer/director, photographer and founder of the Latina Lifestyle Bloggers Collective (#LLBLOG) and creative director for the First Annual #LLBLOGNOTACONF Blogger Getaway.
Check out Her Shortie of the Week : Meet Kenny.
Regardless of what you see and read in the media, this is probably the most exciting time to be a female filmmaker – and to be a woman of color to boot!
Just look around you: we're right at the cusp of Hollywood paying attention to something that needed to be done a long time ago – including women in the mix.
The voices of women of color are unique and yet inspire greatness. Women can make great films – and everyone, begrudgingly as it may seem – is ready to see what we do…and as female filmmakers, we're ready to show the world what we CAN do.
That being said, it's never too early or too late to pursue a passion. I for one, applied to Film School school after more than 15 years working in PR/Marketing and Social Media. Because the passion in film, as you probably have already figured out, is not something that goes away when you get a stable job after college.
If you're like me, don't be afraid to go back and pursue your passion. I, for one, have already discovered that life experience coupled with a unique voice and point of view, will make you stand out from everyone else. And, as scary and sometimes lonely as it may seem, it's actually a good thing.
So do whatever it is that you need to do to discover YOU. That might mean taking a job after college – in a non-related film industry – traveling the world, and of course doing the things that will make you a better filmmaker: Take part in the arts (painting, photography, etc.), read (scripts and books – everyday!), watch good and bad films, old and new; and have a life. A REAL life. Because unless you're writing about a world that doesn't exist, you need to connect to the people you're writing about – and for. Do all of this until your heart is so full and so ready to do something, that like it happened to me, someone will tell you that it's time to pursue your passion. And they will. Listen to those signs.
Going into filmmaking, know that regardless of what you want to say or share, filmmaking is a collaborative industry that largely depends on its history – so you can't learn by just doing, you learn by getting inspired by the work of others. You HAVE TO work with others. Men and women. Gay and Straight. People of color and of course, the largely white male fraternity that has run Hollywood for years. So while it will help you get ahead to be you, you also have to learn to play the game. THAT, is probably the hardest thing to do when you decide to pursue your filmmaking dreams.
Lastly, while sometimes you discover who YOU are by working on your own film projects, there's something to be said about attending Film School and having the collective feedback of some of the best folks in the industry and others just as passionate about storytelling as you are; and, able to make mistakes in a safe setting versus striking it out on your own. Film School also helps you refine your unique voice in such a way that you begin to learn where you want to be and what you want to work on.
Yes, Film School is expensive and it's INCREDIBLY hard to get accepted into the top schools – so if you can't do it now, collaborate with students attending those schools and learn from them. We're always looking for crew and we're always ready to share our knowledge.
As they say in Hollywood: See you on set!
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