The photo above was taken in 2010 I believe while I was playing in the World Poker Tour LA Poker Classic at the Commerce Casino.
I used to take playing poker very seriously. I spent countless hours playing out hands in my head, reading forums and books to go along with thousands of hours spent playing online (before it was deemed illegal). My best stretch was when I was 22 and cleared a shade under $10,000 in 4 months during a summer. I was pretty good but I really disliked the unhealthy lifestyle that came with playing for 8-12 hours daily to make a living.
Poker is a zero sum game. This means that in order for there to be a winner, there has to be a loser. And at times the best play was to target those who would exhibit signs of addiction as those people aren't playing a sound game, mathamatically speaking, This is not something I feel particularly proud of but that's the game.
And while I no longer play to pay my bills there were a lot of lessons I picked up playing cards. Many lessons that translates over to life and business. Here are a few of them.
In probability theory the expected value of a random variable is the sum of the probability of each possible outcome of the experiment multiplied by the outcome value (or payoff).
Simply stated EV (in poker) is the amount of money you can win or lose on your average bet. It's often explained by flipping a coin, which is an example of neutral EV. What are the odds it will be heads or tails? Over a small sample size it's 70% tails, extrapolated over 1,000 or 10,000 flips, it will be closer to 50/50.
No one, not even the best players win every tournament, let alone every single hand they play. Whether you play well or poorly, you'll win some and lose some. Good players are profitable over the long haul because they maximize their spots when they're winning and minimizing losses when cards aren't running their way. They focus on making good decisions regardless of the outcome.
This rings true in business. If you continue to put yourself in the best position by playing the positive percentage plays, more often than not you'll be a winner.
This one drove me insane. How can I be an overwhelming 95% favorite and STILL LOSE!!!
Because like in life, you aren't in control of everything so anything can happen. Yes you should've won, you should've gotten that business because you're better than your competition, but a'las they've decided to go with Joe-Trainer instead. That's completely out of your control and you need to accept the cards of life as they fall even if they're not in your favor. Move on to the next play.
Piggybacking off the last point, even if you don't get the business, you can't dwell on it for long. Continually beating yourself up for mistakes isn't going to help you change for the better. It's only a complete failure if you fail to learn from your mistakes.
There were so many times I made the wrong move at the table which cost me tournament wins and money! I was angry/sad for a bit but ultimately I would reflect on what I could've done differently. There's no point in being upset with something that's now in the past.
Learn from the past, be in the NOW, and always be preparing for the future.
If I bring in $1,000 and spend $900 of it on going out. I'm not left with much else for anything else. Let alone any unanticipated expenses.
Knowing how to budget your money is an invaluable skip to learn. You need to stay within your means because you never quite know what might happen. In the case of Poker it might be a few dry months where your cards couldn't hit the side of a barn; in life it could be a car accident or broken appliance you clearly weren't expecting.
It goes without saying again: Always be saving and stay within your means so you can weather the bad times. If you take one too many risks, you might play yourself right out of the game.
What are the odds of flopping a third Ace when you have two of them in Texas hold em?
Odds of flopping a straight?
How about completing a flush on the river if I only need one last card?
I know these numbers off the top of my head like the back of my hand. I'm not rain man, I just memorized them. But knowing your numbers is just as important in business.
What's your conversion rate for free consultiations to paid clients?
Run any marketing campaigns? What's your CAC (customer acquisition costs)?
What are your food costs?
You don't need to know these things at an accountant level, but you should know what's going on behind the scenes. Knowing the lingo helps you communicate with experts and understand what's going on in your business.
Completing a flush on the river, assuming you have all 9 remaining cards of that suit, is roughly 18%.
How did they play after losing a hand?
Does that change if it was "unlucky" versus playing poorly? Do they even think that was a poor play?
Are they more talkative when they're nervous? Do they always take a sip of water when making a borderline decision?
It comes down to understanding how people normally act and if or when there's a change, deciphering what it means. When dealing with clients who are resistant to change, knowing how to pick up on non-verbal cues has been an invaluable skill to have cultivated.
This is calculating the odds of completing your hand and the future bets you would collect if you do. You need to take stock of the percentage chance you have to complete you hand versus the amount of money already sitting in middle of the table.
Simply stated: Calculating risks is a little more cut and dry in poker since it's all math. But the same basic principles apply where you need to take stock of what an investment of time or money will cost you, and whether or not it's going to be worth doing. If you make decision"x" what will be your return on investment? And how long will it take for you to break even?
Poker is a game that's easy to learn but hard to master. There are only a few of the lessons I've picked up from this game. I believe poker is a fantastic training camp for those looking to cultivate skill necessary for business and critical thinking.
As children we aren't brought into the world with a voice or distinct style. We learn by observing and copying our parents. We only learn by copying others.
I'm not talking about blatantly ripping off someone's work and trying to pass it off as your own but taking time to reverse engineer the thinking behind the style. Remember that even The Beatles stared out as a cover band.
The first step is figuring out who to copy. Then you decide what from them you wish to emulate.
Who to copy is easy, these are people who inspire you and that you learn from.
I could go on and on but you get the point. I started out initially reworking their programs for myself, then some of my clients after I took up training as a profession. I experienced first hand what worked and what I liked personally. Soon it was no longer a copy of Joe Defranco's WS4SB (Westside for skinny bastards) instead it was my own program.
What you want to copy is trickier. Like I said above, you want to copy the thinking behind the style. Simply performing the same exercises just to be like coaches you admire isn't going to cut it, you need to put yourself in their shoes and understand why they are using a specific exercise. This shift in thinking really changed the way I learned.
The main reason to copy someone is to use it as an opportunity to get a glimpse into their mindset You need to internalize their way of thinking or you will only be a superficial knockoff.
And knockoffs don't stand much of a chance in the marketplace.


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Q: How can I get distinct documents on a field with Mongoose? My code is:
Checkin.distinct field, conditions, (err, checkinResults) ->
  doStuff()

However, checkinResults is simply a series of ObjectId's. I need the full document. Any ideas?

A: The distinct method only returns the selected field, not the whole documents, so you need two (or more) queries:
getCheckinsByX = (field, cb) ->
    Checkin.find({ field }).limit(x).exec (err, checkins) ->
        cb err, { field, checkins }

Checkin.distinct field, conditions, (err, results) ->
    async.map results, getCheckinsByX, (err, checkinsByField) ->
        # use list of checkins

This could generate a lot of db queries, so you might want to look into the aggregation framework, or a way of making a single Checkin query + grouping on the client.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Despite a dip in exports in 2014, India was still able to continue its dominance in the global trade on the cotton yarn market. In 2014, India exported X thousand tonnes of cotton yarn totaling X million USD, X% under the previous year. Its primary trading partner was China, where it supplied X% of its total cotton yarn exports in value terms, accounting for X% of China's total imports.
From 2007 to 2014, India was a net exporter of cotton yarn. Over the period under review, exports consistently exceeded imports in value terms. In physical terms, this difference was even more pronounced.
China and Pakistan were among the other main global suppliers of cotton yarn in 2014. However, the fastest growing exporters from 2007 to 2014 were Egypt (+X% per year) and India (+X% per year).
India's top X trading partners in 2014 were China, Bangladesh, Egypt, Viet Nam and the Republic of Korea, with a combined X% share of India's cotton yarn exports. China significantly strengthened its position (by X percentage points), while the Republic of Korea saw its share reduced by X percentage points.
Product coverage: cotton yarn (other than sewing thread).
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the global cotton yarn market. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2025.


Winerax Wine Cellar Tags are designed to compliment your Winerax system, our Wine Cellar Tags will help you organise, find and keep track of your valuable wine collection no matter the size.
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Birth of Lord George Gordon
Lord George Gordon was born on December 26th, 1751.
Richard Cavendish | Published in History Today Volume 51 Issue 12 December 2001
Lord George Gordon while head of the Protestant Association
The chiefs of the Gordons, Marquesses of Huntly and subsequently Dukes of Gordon, had a long and colourful history in Scotland. In the later eighteenth century they were considered possibly the greatest subjects in Britain, in terms of the number of people who lived under their rule and protection. Horace Walpole thought all of them were mad. Lord George Gordon, the youngest child of the 3rd duke, was born in London. Only seven months old when his father died, he was brought up by his widowed mother, herself a Gordon, on the family's vast estates in Scotland. He was sent to school at Eton and then into the Navy for a time before he became an MP. An erratic character, vain, emotional and prone to demagoguery and unexpected enthusiasms, he was scarcely known until the Protestant Associations were formed to campaign for repeal of the Catholic Relief Act of 1778, which diminished discrimination against Roman Catholics.
Lord George's own forebears had been Catholics for generations and he was no fanatic, but he had spoken out against the Relief Act in Scotland and the London Protestant Association chose him as its president. He seems to have accepted the position as a chance to shine as a leader of popular feeling. On June 2nd, 1780, he led a march of more than 50,000 people to the Houses of Parliament to present a monster petition. The demonstration set off an explosion of mob violence that lasted for days. To screams of 'No Popery', Roman Catholics were attacked and their houses destroyed, and Roman Catholic chapels were smashed and looted.
Lord George and the respectable elements in the Association were horrified. They put a notice in the newspapers calling on 'all true Protestants ... to shew their attachment to their best interests, by a legal and peaceable deportment.' This did nothing to stop the trouble, as the poor, who did not read the newspapers, came swarming out of the rookeries in St Giles, Spitalfields and Shoreditch to drink, loot and cause mayhem. There were murders and rapes, the Irish colony in Moorfields was attacked and hundreds of houses were burned down. A mob armed with muskets assaulted the Bank of England. Newgate and other prisons were stormed and the occupants released. Toughs and criminals armed with hammers and axes went on the rampage until forcibly put down by the troops Lord North's government ordered into action.
Hundreds of people were killed and hundreds arrested, of whom twenty-five were eventually executed.
These did not include Lord George, who was held in the Tower of London for some months and then tried in Westminster Hall on a charge of raising and levying war against George III. He was acquitted on the ground that he had not intended any treason. The Gordon Riots, however, which showed how easily a big political gathering could erupt out of control into terrifying mass violence, sent a chill down the collective spine of the English propertied and ruling classes that lasted for years and helped to inspire repressive legislation and harden resistance to reform.
Over the following years Lord George was in constant hot water and his sanity was increasingly questioned. The Archbishop of Canterbury excommunicated him in 1786, in which year he converted to Judaism. Taking up the cause of the impostor Cagliostro, he was convicted of libelling the Queen of France, the French ambassador and the English system of justice, and imprisoned in Newgate. There he lived fairly comfortably, hosting dinner parties and entertaining his guests by playing the bagpipes, until he died of gaol fever in 1793, aged forty-one.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Recently restored perigordian cottage with a 9x4 metre terraced and floodlit pool, set on high ground and bounded by apple orchards, valleys and woodland. An idyllic and peaceful setting offering superb valley views, tranquillity,romantism and charm. The cottage is a perfect base to relax and/or explore the region with it's varied programme of cultural events, exhibitions, markets, fairs and fétes.
The immediate area: The cottage is situated in the NE Dordogne, the Perigord Vert, famous for it's wonderful food and scenic vistas. Many beautiful places rich in historic value are within easy reach, we are just 3km away from one of it's superb sites 'la vallee de l'lsle' above the gorge of this river stands a majestic castle dating back to the XVI century. It is an outstanding example of chateaux to be found in the Dordogne. The village has made it's best for you to enjoy this attraction.
St.Yrieix La Perche, Thiviers, perigueux: The market towns of Thiviers and St.Yrieix-la-perche are just 15 mins drive away and the larger towns of Limoges and Perigueux the capital are approx. 45kms distant. Brantome,' la petit venise de la Dordogne' takes just 30mins. We are approx. 2hrs45mins from Bordeaux and 6/7hrs from Calais. A dayboat and overnight stop in the Loire makes for a very pleasant journey. St.Yrieix-la perche, the nest of 'la Porcelaine de Limoges' will offer you anything you need like supermarkets, hospital, many shops, bars and restaurants. You will find here a lovely medieval town famous as well for its cuisine. We are also close to many lakes.
Leisure activities: In many surrounding towns and villages you will find plenty of sporting activity such as tennis, fishing,excellent canoeing, horseriding, windsurfing, golf in Limoges and Perigueux and even panning for gold in Jumilhac le Grand. There are numerous restaurants to satisfy the palate of any aspiring gourmet and several night clubs to enjoy. If you like romanticism and impressionism you will like the cottage charm and location. But whether you know France or not you can enjoy your holiday in relaxed or active mode surrounded by scenic beauty, friendly shaded cafés, memorable restaurants and an ambience to remember.
Wi-fi provided which up to 6 guests can use at same time.
Newly fitted kitchen with all mod cons including washing machine, tumble dryer, microwave, fan oven, freezer and Smeg fridge.
Dining table in kitchen which sits 6/7 comfortably. Additional dining table in lounge area which will sit 8 people.
Large fenced one acre garden.
Fantastic view from balconey over the surrounding valey and orchards.
9x4m private in ground pool with alarm.
In addition to the swimming pool we have several terraced areas with table tennis,petanque,football, badmington and a large garden salon with seating for eight, two parasols,two barbeques one gas and one charcoal, garden furniture and sun loungers. All rooms are equipped with ventilator fans and electric radiators. Kitchen and bathrooms with extractor fans. There is also freeview satellite TV and a large selection of DVD films. The cottage is maid serviced on changeover dates.
A great cottage set amongst lovely surroundings with views overlooking the countryside. Fully equipped with modern appliances for all cooking and clothes washing, good sized pool, sports / entertainment equipment. Property is rustic with good sized rooms throughout. A good central location within the Dordogne area with numerous attractions nearby.
Thanks for your kind comments. The new kitchen has been a great addition to the cottage. As you say it is a great location for exploring the region and returning to for a nice relaxing evening. Hope you will stay with us again.
We are situated in the North east Dordogne, Aquitaine, close to the perigordian capital of Perigueux and the very beautiful brantome, appropriately called 'the venice of the dordogne'. We are also also perfectly situated to explore the tresors of occitania with its rich cultural and historical buildings, chateaux and bastides. The Atlantic coast is just 2-3hours distant by car. There are also many local lakes within easy reach offering a wide range of water sports and other facilities including dining.
or Limoges, all within equal distance of under one hour drive.
19th hole and restaurant inclusive. All equipment provided.


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Ryan Hall: I'm staying in Sydney
Matthew Shaw October 24, 2019
Ryan Hall has confirmed he will be staying with Sydney Roosters next season after rumours of a potential return to Super League.
The winger, who is due to play for Great Britain in their clash against Tonga Invitational on Saturday, made just six appearances for the Roosters in his maiden NRL season after returning from an ACL injury.
But the 31-year-old is ready to resume his career with the NRL Champions next season, and not return to Super League.
"The plan is to get in the team and win the competition again, it's as simple as that really," he said.
"I wouldn't say this year has been frustrating, it's been strange. I started the season injured and then I haven't played much and it's not something I've ever really experienced before.
"What I would like to say is just how welcoming and helpful everyone at Sydney has been. Joining the club, I was a bit uncertain what to expect because I've never had to meet a new set of team-mates and I arrived at the club injured. But everyone was very welcoming and supportive.
"Obviously I would have liked to play more games than I have, but I've got the chance to pull the Great Britain shirt on, I'll do that and then go back to the Roosters."
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Many companies have tried to render your wallet obsolete. Will Apple be the first to do the job?
At its epic media event on September 9, Apple's "One More Thing" was its first all-new piece of hardware since the iPad, the Apple Watch. But there's a pretty decent chance that when Apple watchers look back at the event, the first thing they'll remember is that it served as the launchpad for Apple Pay.
Apple's new payment system for the real world is certainly the most potentially epoch-shifting feature of the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus. But when I reviewed the phones, I couldn't give it a try. It requires a software update which Apple plans to release in October. And though the company says that 220,000 retail outlets will soon be able to accept Apple Pay, none of them do just yet. For the time being, here's a recap of how the technology will work.
Apple Pay calls on the 6 and 6 Plus's new Near Field Communications (NFC), a technology that's already commonplace in Android phones. (Both Apple Pay and NFC will be built into the Apple Watch as well when it arrives in 2015.) NFC, which is designed for data connections which are both wireless and secure, will let the new Apple devices exchange the necessary details with the contact-free payment terminals which are already in wide use.
Once your iPhone has the Apple Pay software update, you'll be able to add American Express, MasterCard, and Visa cards to iOS's Passbook app. Then when you're in an establishment which accepts Apple Pay–including locations of chains such as Macys, McDonalds, Petco, Staples, Toys R Us, Walgreens, Whole Foods, and, in case you weren't sure, the Apple Store–you can grasp your iPhone 6 or iPhone 6 Plus with your finger or thumb against the Touch ID sensor and wave it at a wireless payment terminal. Voila–instant payment.
There are some advantages beyond convenience. Privacy, for one: Apple handles the transaction by using a one-time code rather than handing your personal info over to the merchant, and doesn't store data except for recent purchases, which you can revisit in Passbook.
The basic idea here is nothing new. It's just that nobody's managed to implement it in a way that consumers care about. Google Wallet, for instance, is theoretically similar, but requires enough fiddling around that it's no quicker than using plastic. And Softcard, a joint project by AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon, hasn't yet gone much of anywhere–and just had to scrap its original brand, Isis, which it unfortunately happened to share with a bunch of terrorists.


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First brain-wave test could help assess kids with ADHD
USDA permits marketing of new test
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has given its approval to the marketing of a new medical device that uses brain waves to help assess attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in children and teens.The USDA says when the brain wave test is used as part of a complete medical and psychological examination, the device can help confirm an ADHD diagnosis or help a doctor determine whether further diagnostic testing should focus on ADHD or other medical or behavioral conditions that produce symptoms similar to ADHD.The device, called the Neuropsychiatric EEG-Based Assessment Aid (NEBA) System, is based on EEG technology, which records different kinds of electrical impulses given off by nerve cells in the brain and the number of times the impulses are given off each second.The NEBA System is a 15-to 20-minute non-invasive test that calculates the ratio of two standard brain wave frequencies, known as theta and beta waves. The theta/beta ratio has been shown to be higher in children and adolescents with ADHD than in children without it."Diagnosing ADHD is a multistep process based on a complete medical and psychiatric exam," said Christy Foreman, director of the Office of Device Evaluation at the FDA's Center for Devices and Radiological Health. "The NEBA System along with other clinical information may help health care providers more accurately determine if ADHD is the cause of a behavioral problem."According to the American Psychiatric Association, 9 percent of U.S. adolescents have ADHD and the average age of diagnosis is seven-years-old.Children with ADHD have difficulty with attention, hyperactivity and behavioral problems.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has given its approval to the marketing of a new medical device that uses brain waves to help assess attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in children and teens.
The USDA says when the brain wave test is used as part of a complete medical and psychological examination, the device can help confirm an ADHD diagnosis or help a doctor determine whether further diagnostic testing should focus on ADHD or other medical or behavioral conditions that produce symptoms similar to ADHD.
The device, called the Neuropsychiatric EEG-Based Assessment Aid (NEBA) System, is based on EEG technology, which records different kinds of electrical impulses given off by nerve cells in the brain and the number of times the impulses are given off each second.
The NEBA System is a 15-to 20-minute non-invasive test that calculates the ratio of two standard brain wave frequencies, known as theta and beta waves. The theta/beta ratio has been shown to be higher in children and adolescents with ADHD than in children without it.
"Diagnosing ADHD is a multistep process based on a complete medical and psychiatric exam," said Christy Foreman, director of the Office of Device Evaluation at the FDA's Center for Devices and Radiological Health. "The NEBA System along with other clinical information may help health care providers more accurately determine if ADHD is the cause of a behavioral problem."
According to the American Psychiatric Association, 9 percent of U.S. adolescents have ADHD and the average age of diagnosis is seven-years-old.
Children with ADHD have difficulty with attention, hyperactivity and behavioral problems.


text:
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All entries must include name, email, recipe and image in order to enter the contest.
All entries must include name, email, recipe and image/video in order to enter the contest.
*Super Greens contest will begin on Monday, March 1, 2021 at 12:01 a.m. PST and end on Wednesday, March 31, 2021 at 4:59 p.m. PST. This contest is only open to active Grown Strong members. Active is defined as the account is in good standing at time of entry. All entries must be submitted prior to the deadline of Wednesday, March 31, 2021 at 11:59 p.m. PST to be considered. Any entries submitted after the designated deadline will not be considered for a prize. Valid entries must complete all required fields on entry form with accurate information. Any entries that do not complete all required fields or enters false information will be disqualified. Each applicant can only win once, but can complete as many entries as they would like, within the designated time frame, to be considered for prize. Once entry is submitted, all recipes, images and information shared becomes property of Grown Strong and may be used in any and all promotional material for the indefinite future. Winners of the contest will be announced on April 1, 2021 at 10:00 a.m. PST. Two winners will be chosen based on the opinion of most qualified, which will be selected by Grown Strong. Facebook is not and has not sponsored, in any way, this contest.
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Meta-Analysis: Choose Your Model Wisely
Posted: Apr 19, 2018 | Updated: Mar 30, 2019
Why Do a Meta-Analysis?
Meta-Analyses are statistical techniques where we take the treatment effects from several studies and pool them to estimate the overall treatment effect.
This type of analysis is conducted so that we can get a precise estimate of the true treatment effect or estimate the mean of several true treatment effects and to notice how robust the effects are across studies. If the individual study treatment effects tend to vary substantially across the studies (true heterogeneity, separated from random error), then we want to explore the sources of this observed dispersion.
An excellent way to think of a meta-analysis is a large study. For example, if we have ten studies with 100 participants in each study, the inferences these studies can draw based on the small samples will be limited because of sampling error and we will get imprecise treatment effects and wide confidence intervals.
In theory, we can combine the results of all those ten studies to pretend that it's like one giant study with 1,000 participants. Of course, there are a lot of caveats to this because things like quality control in the individual trials and sampling/measurement error will also play a significant role. More on that below.
In summary, we conduct a meta-analysis to get more precise treatment effects, to find how robust the effects are across a body of literature, and to explore sources of dispersion if they are indeed there.
When conducting a meta-analysis, there are two models that you can choose to go with, a common effects model or a random-effects model. These have entirely different definitions from other statistical scenarios, and I'll try to explain them below.
First, remember that there are true effects (which we will never know, but what we're trying to estimate) and there are observed effects, AKA the results we get from our studies. The circles are the true effects, what we're trying to figure out or estimate. The boxes are the results we got. It'll be a good idea to understand this or come back to this box so you understand the examples below, which are all taken from the bible of meta-analyses, Introduction to Meta-Analysis, by Michael Borenstein. I'd recommend it as a read, after you read this article of course.
The Common-Effects (Fixed-Effects) Model
If a researcher chooses to go with a common effects model, he/she is going on the assumption that the studies being included are all incredibly similar. The participants were sampled from the same population; they used the same dosages for the intervention, same duration, and same protocols. Most things are meant to be similar, almost like a series of replication studies sampled from the same population.
So, we assume, that there is one real treatment effect (circles shown below) for the intervention when all these criteria (dosage, population, duration, protocol) are similar. AKA the true treatment effect is common for all the studies.
But the observed treatment effects (the results we got, boxes) will differ from study to study, mainly due to sampling error.
Studies with smaller sample sizes have more sampling error, while larger ones have less. If our study had a sample size of infinity, the sampling error would practically be zero, and our observed treatment effect from this infinity study would be identical with the true treatment effect. Of course, this is usually not the case, and most people don't have sample sizes of infinity.
So in a common effects model, we pool the results from several studies that are incredibly similar, with the assumption that smaller studies (which have more sampling error than larger studies) are less reliable than the larger studies. In this model, we assign more weight to the larger studies, which contribute more to the pooled effect, because they have less sampling error, and their observed treatment effects are likely to be closer to the true treatment effect. This can be seen below where the treatment effect from small studies have smaller boxes (smaller weights), and the larger studies have huge boxes (large weights).
So, small studies, with more extreme values in the observed treatment effects, will be less likely (hah!) to influence the overall treatment effect, which is trying to estimate what the TRUE treatment effect is.
Summary: Common effects models assume there is one true treatment effect and that all the studies included in the analysis are incredibly similar. Because the observed treatment effects from the individual studies will differ mainly due to sampling error, we put less weight on the smaller studies which are impacted more by sampling error, and we put more weight on the larger studies, which are less influenced by the random aspect of the sampling error.
The Random-Effects Model
In a random-effects model, we are trying to estimate the mean treatment effect, from a distribution of observed treatment effects.
Let me unpack this. In a common effects meta-analysis, you assume all the studies are incredibly similar, and there is likely one TRUE treatment effect, and the only reason the studies differ in results is because of sampling error (hypothetically).
In a random-effects model, you are assuming that the studies are not very similar and that because things like dosages, durations, protocols, and interventions will differ, there will be several true treatment effects (see below) and your goal is to estimate the average of the treatment effects, which are normally distributed. This is more likely to represent real-world scenarios because there are rarely situations where a lot of the conditions between studies are highly similar.
Because each study provides a unique set of information, you do not merely assume that studies with smaller sample sizes are only influenced by sampling error and thus, less reliable than larger studies. No, now, you take into account that all of the studies likely differ, and provide a unique set of new information and that each study is individual, with its true treatment effect. And remember, we don't have the true treatment effects (black circles) of the individual studies, we only have the observed effects (the results we got AKA the black boxes), which are influenced by sampling error amongst other things. See below.
So, you use a formula where the weights are more equally balanced amongst studies, even the small ones. Larger studies will still have more weight, but less so. Your goal now is not to discover the true one treatment effect, but instead, consider that there are several true treatment effects and you are trying to estimate the mean of these true treatment effects.
Summary: In a random-effects model, you assume that the studies being included in your analysis differ in several aspects such as duration, dosage, population, protocols. Therefore you treat every study as being a new source of information, and you cannot merely assign larger studies more weight in your calculations. You use a different formula where the study weights are now far more balanced because you are trying to estimate the MEAN of the true treatment effects, which will differ from study to study.
The Importance of Choosing the Right Model
So, why even use different models? Do they lead to different results? Yes, they do. Common effects models will often give you more precision and smaller intervals, again, because the formula you use is going off the assumption that the studies are incredibly similar. So, your interval will be narrow. In a random-effects model, because there are studies that are different, that each present new information, your intervals will be a lot wider, thus making you more uncertain. Here are some examples.
Looked at the pooled treatment effects (the diamonds). Notice how much smaller and precise the common effects model one is. Now, look at random-effects model one. Way less precision!
Another example using dichotomous outcomes.
The biggest mistake that researchers will do is try to figure out whether the studies they're looking at are similar based on a test of homogeneity. If the test is significant, they assume that their studies are not similar, and they will switch to a random-effects model, but if the result is not significant, then they will stick with a common effects model.
This is problematic because the test of homogeneity often suffers from low power. Therefore it is more likely to lead to people going with common effects models when there is heterogeneity. The other problem is that choosing a model should not be based on tests of significance but rather through an understanding of the designs and effects of the studies being included.
Prior Assumptions
If you know that the studies being included in your meta-analysis are very similar, have very similar protocols and similar effects, and you plan on extrapolating the results only to that population, go with a common effects model, where you put more weight on larger studies.
If you know that the studies being included in your meta-analysis are NOT too similar, have very different protocols, samples that differ by age, sampled from different populations, different intervention dosages, and durations, treat each study as a new source of information and assign more balanced weights.
And that is how you should choose your model. Not based on tests of significance, but on prior information.
APA: Rafi, Z. (2018, Apr 19). Meta-Analysis: Choose Your Model Wisely. Retrieved from https://lesslikely.com/statistics/meta-analysis-models/.
AMA: Rafi, Z. Meta-Analysis: Choose Your Model Wisely. Less Likely. https://lesslikely.com/statistics/meta-analysis-models/. Published April 19, 2018.
MLA: Rafi, Zad. Meta-Analysis: Choose Your Model Wisely. Less Likely. https://lesslikely.com/statistics/meta-analysis-models/. 19 Apr. 2018.
meta-analysis precision sample sizes
Myth: Covariates Need to Be Balanced in RCTs
It's Looking Bad for Fish Oil and CVD


This award winning social enterprise, supported initially by the Rank Foundation, encourages local people and organisations (including generous donations from Pontypridd RFC, Cardiff Blues and the Football Association of Wales Trust) to donate unwanted sports kit in several RCT locations (e.g. All RCT Sports Centres) for recycling and selling at a fraction of the new cost to those wishing to get into sport. Ynyshir karate black belt, Steffan Rees, came up with the idea when he realised just how much young people and families had to fork out for new sports kit to join his club. Play It Again Sport is able to donate sportswear to those referred to it who are in need.
Play It Again Sport has also supported the development of walking rugby in Clydach Vale, Pontypridd and Upper Rhondda. We just piloted our first school holiday Sports Camp in The Play Yard (April 2019), Ynyswen (near Treorchy) which was a great success. We will be offering these again: watch this space!
From August 2017 Play It Again Sport has been based in Too Good To Waste, a household goods recycling social enterprise in Ynyshir, Aberdare and Treorchy and a founding member of Stronger Rhondda Gryfach. The store is open seven days a week and has had amazing support from a wide range of individuals and organisations donating sports kit. For the latest deals and details of sports activities, check out our Facebook page.
Check out our promotional video made by Juliana Willis when she was leading the project.


What Kind of Warren Feces Clean Up Services Do We Provide?
Aside from our Warren dog waste removal services, we also do wild animal waste removal services. If you live near a pond, lake, or golf course you know exactly why this is important. Ducks and geese usually come with these bodies of water and large fairways. They are terrible messy neighbors and with each and every migration your lawn is littered with their waste.
Worry no more about their mess. Our Warren technicians know exactly how to clean up and remove all wild animal waste and will do it in a way that is unobtrusive to both you and the animals.
Pet Waste Cleanup for Apartments, HOAs, and Parks They provide us with companionship, entertainment, and much more. Hence, once you contact us, we will take care of everything that involves pet poop scooping. We currently offer pet waste removal services within 10 miles of Utica, MI. We also offer professional pooper scooper services for dog kennels, breeders, and more. On your scheduled service days, a our team dog waste technician will arrive at your home in one of our professional, fully branded trucks. Love your dog but hate cleaning up after them? Our Pet Services helps busy pet owners recapture some of their time while creating a clean and safe environment for pets, owners, and their families. As pet owners ourselves, we know that picking up dog poop is the lowest thing on your priority list at the end of the day. Our services begin at only $9. Pet wastes contain a disease causing germs, it can be harmful for lawn grasses and plants, and also, if pet faeces get carried away by water, it can cause water pollution.
First, we want to help dog owners find a pooper scooper disposal, pickup service. Keep Your Family Safe and Healthy At the end of the day, it is hard to find a better value in the service industry than that of a dog waste removal service. Manager of a homeowners association or apartment complex, please check out our commercial services. Your dog poop removal worries will be history! We are a full scale pet poop removal service. Give us a try or learn more about why our affordable Animal Waste residential pet waste removal services are the best in Wayne and Oakland Counties! Suburban Scoopers will provide the highest level of customer service and professionalism in order to earn your business and trust. Dignity Restored With a Dog Doody Bags Discreet Carrier. Our uniformed, friendly, and insured technician will arrive at your yard as scheduled, provide you complete, hassle-free service and leave a door hanger on your door when the job is complete.
The only good way to avoid this is by diligently cleaning up your pet's waste. We understand that our job is to make lives a little easier and hopefully a little less hectic, allowing our clients to spend their time doing the activities they enjoy while maintaining clean, healthy yards and helping the environment at the same time! Dignity Restored With a Dog Doody Bags Discreet Carrier. Any complaints regarding our services are always entertained- if you are not satisfied with our service, we make sure that our service men revisit your place and perform their job according to your needs. Commands like "sit", "fetch" or "stay" come very easily to puppies and can be learned within a few days. Technicians always sanitize their tools after every job, and all of our services are backed with a 100% Satisfaction Guarantee. How many times have you let Fido out and just said "Oh, well I'll get it tomorrow" after he poops? How many times has it been snowing, raining or blisteringly hot and you "forgot" to pick up his poop? Now you have a yard full of poop and have to clean it all up in one go. Any complaints regarding our services are always entertained- if you are not satisfied with our service, we make sure that our service men revisit your place and perform their job according to your needs. There are many reasons people can not pick up there dog waste in a timely manner. Other pet owners have health issues or physical limitations.


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Dean Biron reviews 'One' by Patrick Holland
Dean Biron
Published in June–July 2016, no. 382
by Patrick Holland
Transit Lounge $29.95 pb, 368 pp, 9781921924965
The work of Brisbane-based author Patrick Holland is reputedly influenced by Estonian composer Arvo Pärt, whose Tabula Rasa cemented his standing as one of the so-called 'holy minimalists' of late-twentieth century music. Reading Holland's new novel, One – based on the hunt for the Kenniff brothers, bushrangers operating in Western Queensland circa 1902 – the influence of Pärt's sparse, bell-like compositional technique known as 'tintinnabuli' is not especially obvious. What stands out more clearly is Holland's debt to that paragon of literary minimalism, Cormac McCarthy. One is a Blood Meridian for the antipodes, and a writer looking to develop a frontier narrative of isolation and violence could do worse than take inspiration from an acknowledged master of the style.
Dean Biron has a PhD from the University of New England and was co-winner of the 2011 Australian Book Review Calibre Prize. He is currently a sessional academic in the School of Justice at Queensland University of Technology.
Dean Biron reviews 'The Van Apfel Girls are Gone' by Felicity McLean
Dean Biron reviews 'Old Scores' by David Whish-Wilson
Dean Biron reviews 'Black Teeth' by Zane Lovitt
More in this issue « News from the Editor's Desk - June–July 2016 Sophia Barnes reviews 'The Convict's Daughter' by Keira Lindsey »
Patrick Holland
Zora Simic #MeToo: Stories from the Australian movement edited by Natalie Kon-yu et al.
Alice Whitmore reviews Requiem with Yellow Butterflies by James Halford
Geoff Page reviews The Tomb of the Unknown Artist by Andy Kissane
Christopher Allen reviews Heaven on Earth: Painting and the life to come by T.J. Clark


text:
Q: Comparing each possible pair of elements in a list, once? How can I go through a list, such that each pair of element is considered once?
For example:
myList = ["fruit", "bread", "meat", "cheese"]

I would need to compare:
fruit - bread
fruit - meat
fruit - cheese
bread - meat
bread - cheese
meat - cheese

Is there an efficient way to achieve this?


Gear: Looking For The Middle Ground Between Style And Serious Driving Gear?
Looking For The Middle Ground Between Style And Serious Driving Gear?
When it comes to what we wear when we drive, there are a few different routes to take. Some opt for the faux-racer look by wearing a ludicrously expensive F1 team windbreaker, while others might prefer a subtler route, strapping on a nice chronograph and calling it a day with a whatever they wore to work earlier. Fashion is a fickle thing regardless of how high or low you take it, but there are some enduring styles that resist the ebb and flow of what's cool and what isn't. In the case of driving gear for instance, a nice set of leather gloves have always been a great complement to a wooden steering wheel, and though I'll leave out my opinions on those who use them just to tootle around town with, there's a reason they're worn in competition; if you want to do a track day with a vintage car or even just a spritely blitz through the less populated and more serpentine sections of your drive, sweaty palms and smooth wood aren't the ideal means of control.
It's a similar case with driving shoes in terms of proper use and posing. To clarify, there's nothing wrong with playing a little Goodwood Revival now and then, but when it comes to the performance-oriented pieces of an outfit I think we can be a bit more strict in our scrutiny. I cringe every time I see a primary-colored suede race boot step over the sill of a some modern supercar with a loud exhaust and no clutch pedal, don't you? It's like going to the ski lodge decked out in all your gear just to sip on hot chocolate. But then there are moments that do require such footwear, and thankfully there are options for the space in between leisure and this kind of driving. These suede and leather driving shoes fit squarely in this category.
Made by Vandel in Europe, they are made from aniline cow leather inside, and feature 26 different pieces of Italian suede stitched together on the outside. The rubber soles are suited for quick and accurate pedal play like you'd expect from a shoe made to excel in an automobile's footwell. The company itself is a long-standing family pseudonym that has been used to create goods and art since its early appearance in bohemian Paris. That's what they say anyway, but we're inclined to believe in these longstanding aesthetic roots when they produce boots like these. Inspired by the gear worn by Grand Prix and sports car drivers in the '70s and '80s, they are clearly more than just functional in their design. Offered in two colors, both are stylishly unobtrusive, restrained and simple but not at all boring.
So if you like taking the back roads to the sunday morning car show but don't want to look like a wannabe when you get out for a cup of coffee, these are the answer.


text:
What is Goma known for?
historical volcanic
Wikipedia:Goma
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price content Quiet restaurant with a friendly staff. * *
open fighting
to the disaster at Lake Nyos in Cameroon in 1986. This did not happen, but volcanologists continue to monitor the area closely. In 1999, the city was the site of the first open fighting between Ugandan and Rwandan forces in the Second Congo War, when nearly 3,000 people died in the cross fire. This followed the fracturing of the anti-government rebel group Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD) into camps based in Kisangani and Goma. The fighting was also over the gold mines
ties quot
August 2009. It was the first presidential meeting between the two countries for 13 years, with the two countries having come to a disagreement in 1996 following an invasion by Rwanda into eastern Congo, a disagreement which was renewed in 1998 after a further invasion. The pair of presidents spent more than two hours in the company of each other and "reviewed all issues of common interest". Wikipedia:Goma
people related
Crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo Mission Aviation Fellowship is maintaining flights for civilians and aid agencies in two of the Democratic Republic of Congo's current trouble spots. The latest fighting around the eastern town of Goma between government militia and rebel forces has displaced an estimated 250,000 people who are being forced back and forth between villages in some confusion. MAF pilots are flying medical supplies and medical staff to Goma. Relief flights would have increased had it not been for a relatively open
interest quot
photographs showing
) *Naasson Kubuya Ndoole (COFEDEC (Federalist Christian Democracy - Convention of Federalists for Christian Democracy)) *Elvis Mutiri (ADR) *Dieudonné Kambale (UDECF) Volcanic activity around Goma The Great Rift Valley is being pulled apart, leading to earthquakes and the formation of volcanoes in the area. 2002 Eruption of Nyiragongo Image:Nyiragongo volcano - SRTM.jpg thumb right Computer image of Nyiragongo volcano generated from satellite photographs, showing the Goma-Gisenyi
Research Institute, University of Tokyo. Retrieved 3 September 2007. The lava can easily be seen in satellite photographs, Google Earth has high resolution photographs showing the affected part of the airport at coordinates -1.658, 29.237. Retrieved 3 September 2007. and aircraft can be seen using the 2-km (6,500-ft) southern section of the runway which is clear of lava. In 2005, volcanic activity again threatened the city. Currently
building largest
3200+ survivors in the World Trade Center towers, inhabitants of downtown Manhattan New York City, NY. Numerous other evacuations of high-rises in Chicago, IL including the Sears Tower and the Thompson Building. Largest sea evacuation with over 500,000 people being evacuated in 9 hours by hundreds of boats. Second largest sea evacuation (Operation Dynamo) occurred in late May, early June, of 1940 with around 339,000 British and French troops evacuated from Dunkirk, France. http
scale fighting
. The Congolese defence forces are unable or unwilling to stop them, and as a consequence Rwanda continues to support Banymulenge rebels such as the RCD and General Nkunda, and to carry out incursions into North Kivu in pursuit of the FDLR. In September 2007 large-scale fighting threatened to break out again as the 8,000-strong militia of General Nkunda, based around Rutshuru, broke away from integration with the Congolese army and began attacking them in the town of Masisi north-west of Goma. MONUC (United Nations Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo) began airlifting Congolese troops into Goma and transferring them by helicopter from Goma International Airport to Masisi. "Fear of fresh conflict in Congo as renegade general turns guns on government forces." Chris McGreal, ''The Guardian'', Monday September 3, 2007. Retrieved 3 September 2007. On October 27, 2008, the Battle of Goma broke out in the city between the Congolese army, supported by MONUC, and Nkunda's CNDP rebels; 200,000 refugees fled the town. Wikipedia:Goma
around Goma included 30,000 to 40,000 soldiers of the former Armed Forces of Rwanda ( ), fully armed with an intact officer corps and transport unit, as well as almost all of the politicians. The only other camp complex to host significant numbers of leaders of the former government was the large Benaco camp in Tanzania, which held a small number of the exiled military and political leadership. The exiles chose to base themselves mainly in Zaire
'''Goma''' is a city in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. It is located on the northern shore of Lake Kivu, next to the Rwandan city of Gisenyi. The lake and the two cities are in the Albertine Rift, the western branch of the East African Rift system. Goma lies only 13 to 18 km due south of the crater of the active Nyiragongo Volcano. The recent history of Goma has been dominated by the volcano and the Rwandan Genocide of 1994, which in turn fuelled the First (First Congo War) and Second Congo Wars. The aftermath of these events was still having effects on the city and its surroundings in 2010. The city was captured by rebels (March 23 Movement) during the M23 rebellion in late 2012, but has since been retaken by government forces.
Goma is capital of North Kivu province, ethnically and geographically similar to South Kivu (capital Bukavu); the two provinces are known as "the Kivus".


Did an Apartment Security Failure Contribute to the Senseless Loss of This Young Man?
A shooting outside the Vie apartment complex reportedly claimed the life of 23-year-old Quentin Quante Judd Sunday, August 27, 2017.
According to WNCN News, police "responded to reports of a loud party shortly after 3 a.m. at Vie at Raleigh apartments in the 5900 block of Wolf Glen Court." Officers apparently discovered Mr. Judd suffering from gunshot wounds at the scene. Mr. Judd was transported to WakeMed, where he tragically succumbed to fatal injuries.
Did negligent security contribute to this senseless loss of life? We represent individuals and families who have suffered a tragic loss or injury as a consequence of negligent property security. Read Our Legal Take to find out if the victim's family may have a legal avenue for justice and claims for substantial compensation in North Carolina, or call now for a free consultation with our legal team: 888.842.1616.
Generally, property owners are required to protect all residents and guests legally on the premises from any foreseeable harm. Should the facts of this matter reveal that the apartment complex owner or management failed to provide adequate security to protect those on its premises, the family of Quentin Judd may seek justice and elect to pursue legal claims for his wrongful death.


text:
Anti-spam: to punish someone for annoying SMS-mailing
September 12, 2017 IMMUkraine
In Parliament a new billaccording to which proposed to fine mobile operators for sending out spam. The website "Today" to find out who really should be responsible for the dominance of spam, and what people think about this all the participants of communication.
That stated in the bill
Bill No. 7043, which was designed to combat phone spam was registered in the Verkhovna Rada on August 28. Its author, Borislav Bereza, said that the results of a survey which he conducted himself on the page on Facebook, ads in SMS is very annoying Ukrainians.
"Then I promised to develop and submit a bill that would have protected us from unwanted interference in our lives and stop using our personal data without our permission," added Birch.
It is now proposed to amend the Law of Ukraine "About telecommunications". In the explanatory note to the bill States that its main objective is the implementation mechanism for the protection of subscriber's telecommunications services from unauthorized electronic text or multimedia messages and then use their contact data and can use this information for fraudulent purposes.
The bill also provides for administrative liability and fines for telcos:
through illegal spam operators will be required to reimburse direct and indirect damages to the subscriber and to pay a fine of 30 to 40 (510-680 UAH) non-taxable income of citizens;
in the case of repeated violations within a year, the fine will range from 50 to 100 (850 to 1700 UAH) non-taxable income.
Like this comment operators
How this bill will be effective – hard to say. On the one hand, the problem with the spam that constantly comes to mobile phones and offering to order a taxi cheaper or buy tickets to a concert, really annoying. On the other hand, the spam comes through no fault of the mobile operators. As told to us by Mikhail Shuranov, the Director of Department for public relations of one of the Ukrainian telekommunikacionnykh companies, operators do not have the right to filter messages that are sent to the subscribers.
"The need to streamline the use of Telecom capabilities and SMS and phone calls for commercial purposes without the consent of the subscribers clearly present. However, first of all, note that the operators are obliged to send all messages, transmitted by other subscribers to a particular user number. The operator has no right to filter incoming SMS (and calls) in order to determine what falls under the definition of "spam" and what is not. That is, the operator in this case is similar to the glass in the window through which the subscriber sees the outside world. And if they show him something annoying, the glass is certainly not to blame. It is the initiator of the mailing and should be held responsible for the content of messages they send. In turn, some operators have to stop the practice of price differentiation for send business SMS" – explains the situation Shuranov.
Also read: 4G in Ukraine: when the country will have high-speed mobile Internet
Basically, the spam comes from there, where subscribers to this leave your contacts – banks, pizzerias, taxi service, various contests, promotions, etc. Therefore, while it is necessary to filter messages, the operators are unable to decide what is important to human information and what is spam.
"We believe that the responsibility for their content and for spam needs to be borne exclusively by the initiators of such mailings. If the complaint of the caller for their maintenance, the court will have to bring the authors to justice. This form of struggle will be effective," says Shuranov.
In turn, Maxim Savchenko, Advisor on regulatory issues to one of Ukrainian mobile operators, said that this bill will not help the fight against spam, since it does not contain the necessary mechanisms.
"The bill does not contain mechanisms to combat spam, and offers to solve the problem solely by making changes to the Law of Ukraine "About telecommunications", imposing on operators and providers of telecommunications commitments and sanctions. It is illogical and unreasonable, as mobile communication is just the transmission medium of the information at that time as generators mailings are suppliers of products and services," says Savchenko.
Note, in the world of spam fighting otherwise. For example, in the USA and Australia there are special registers "Do not call", where one enters your room and establishes a ban on all deliveries that take place without his consent. Also there are certain rules and codes that oblige to the consent of subscribers before you can send messages with advertising.
"It should be noted that telecommunications operators in close cooperation with the national regulator has proposed amendments to the Rules of provision of telecommunications services for more effective anti-spam that are submitted to the Cabinet of Ministers", – concluded Savchenko.
What people think about this people
In social networks also discuss a new bill. Some users of Facebook say that it is waiting for when this or a similar the law will work, because strange greetings, advertisements and other distribution, already rather tired. Also part of the user believes that operators should filter spam and deal with it.
Experts, as already mentioned, believe that although spam is now really very much, and should take measures for its eradication, however, the proposed bill clearly needs improvement.
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The Drak'Tharon Overlook is a large area just pass the Raptor Pens in Drak'Tharon Keep. Essentially just the top of Drak'Tharon Keep, this overlook allows one to see across the lands in all directions. The Prophet Tharon'ja can be found on the top platform here, as well as Drakuru's Brazier.
This page was last edited on 4 March 2018, at 22:29.


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"Midnight City" is a song by French electronic music band M83. The track was first released in France on 16 August 2011, as the lead single from the group's sixth. Listen and download musics moutro extended version or m outro m outro lyrics, M83 Outro and listen music free music.
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Today we are hosting our second webinar in "The Future of Auditing" series. This event will be a live presentation by Elmer Corbin, a senior executive from IBM and Chair of ASQ. Corbin will deliver an informative presentation discussing how artificial intelligence is transforming the auditing profession. The webinar will start at April 5 at 4:00 p.m. EDT. (8:00 p.m. GMT). Click here for more information or to register. If you miss the presentation, the webinar will be available to view "on demand" on Exemplar Global's webinar platform.
In early May (7 – 18), we are holding our second virtual auditor conference—the International Auditor Symposium 2018. The International Auditor Symposium will run 24 hours a day during the two-week conference period. You can access as much of the symposium as you want, any time of the day, anywhere in the world. There will be no limit on access to our world-class presentations of global thought leaders and information on international standards and auditing techniques. We have some wonderful speakers and presenters so I encourage you to register here.
For some time now, I have been talking about some new initiatives from Exemplar Global. One of these, the Work Style Assessment, has been in place for several months and we are starting to see some of the early results from this work. Each participant that takes the assessment receives their own personal report and another that they can provide their employer. While these reports provide an insight for personal self-awareness, this is only part of the story. The reports also allows us to show how an individual compares with peers and how the wider population of auditors perform. The possibilities are very wide ranging. Below is one example of a report format that can be produced.
We expect much more refinement of data coming out as we build the data set. If you wish to participate and complete your own auditor Work Style Assessment, click here.
You can expect Exemplar Global to become much more active with data management over the coming months. We look forward to sharing the results and discussions that arise from the data with you.
As always, we will welcome your feedback on any matters concerning Exemplar Global.