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A Certainty Equivalent Merton Problem
Nicholas Moehle,Stephen Boyd
The Merton problem is the well-known stochastic control problem of choosing consumption over time, as well as an investment mix, to maximize expected constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility of consumption. Merton formulated the problem and provided an analytical solution in 1970; since then a number of extensions of the original formulation have been solved. In this note we identify a certainty equivalent problem, i.e., a deterministic optimal control problem with the same optimal value function and optimal policy, for the base Merton problem, as well as a number of extensions. When time is discretized, the certainty equivalent problem becomes a second-order cone program (SOCP), readily formulated and solved using domain specific languages for convex optimization. This makes it a good starting point for model predictive control, a policy that can handle extensions that are either too cumbersome or impossible to handle exactly using standard dynamic programming methods.
A comprehensive theoretical analysis of soccer penalty shootout designs
László Csató,Dóra Gréta Petróczy
The standard rule of soccer penalty shootouts has received serious criticism due to its bias towards the team kicking the first penalty in each round. Therefore, the rule-making body of the sport has decided in 2017 to try alternative designs. This paper offers an extensive overview of eight penalty shootout mechanisms, one of them first introduced here. Their fairness is analysed under three possible mathematical models of psychological pressure. We also discuss the probability of reaching the sudden death stage, as well as the complexity and strategy-proofness of the rules. In the case of stationary scoring probabilities considered here, it remains sufficient to use static rules in order to improve fairness. However, it is worth compensating the second-mover by making it first-mover in the sudden death stage. Our work has the potential to impact decision-makers who can save valuable resources by choosing only theoretically competitive policy options for field experiments.
Yi Wei,Cristian Tiu,Vipin Chaudhary
Asymmetric Solutions to Asymmetric Information Problems
Dari‐Mattiacci, Giuseppe,Onderstal, Sander,Parisi, Francesco
This paper studies markets plagued with asymmetric information on the quality of traded goods. In Akerlof's setting, sellers are better informed than buyers. In contrast, we examine cases where buyers are better informed than sellers. This creates an inverse adverse selection problem: the market tends to disappear from the bottom rather than from the top. In contrast to the traditional model, it is the high-value goods (gems) that are traded on the market, rather than the low-value goods (lemons). We refer to this asymmetric information scenario as the "market for gems." We investigate the consequences of this undisclosed knowledge of hidden qualities â€" which we refer to as inverse adverse selection â€" and the reasons why legal theorists have given this form of asymmetric information substantially less consideration. Conventional legal and contractual solutions to the lemons problem are often ineffective in the gems case: the uninformed buyer in a traditional market for lemons experiences the quality of the good he purchased; in a market for gems, instead, the uninformed seller may never know the quality of the good that he sold. We study three alternative solutions to the gems problem â€" auctions, suppression of information, and inverse warranties â€" and identify the condition under which each of them is feasible. We then show how the theory sheds light on real-life gems problems arising in the multi-million dollar transactions involving soccer players, artworks, M&As, Hollywood movies, and diamonds.
Commercial Real Estate Prices and Covid-19
Hoesli, Martin,Malle, Richard
The article analyzes the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on commercial real estate prices. We start by highlighting caveats to bear in mind when referring to direct real estate indices. We then analyze the behavior of commercial real estate prices during the pandemic, emphasizing differences across property types. For that purpose, we use data for both direct and listed real estate. We further discuss changes in the main factors affecting commercial real estate pricing. The article then turns to discussing the likely trajectory of commercial real estate prices in the future. We report that retail and hospitality properties and to a lesser extent office buildings have been affected the most by Covid-19. The other sectors, in particular the residential and industrial sectors, have shown more resilience. We maintain that the future trajectory of real estate prices will vary across sectors and that the type and location of assets will become increasingly important in their valuation.
Communication and Social Preferences: An Experimental Analysis
Cabrales, Antonio,Feri, Francesco,Gottardi, Piero,Meléndez-Jiménez, Miguel
This paper reports on experiments regarding cheap talk games where senders attempt deception when their interests are not in conflict with those of the receiver. The amount of miscommunication is higher than in previous experimental findings on cheap talk games in situations where senders' and receivers' interests are not in conflict. We obtain this even though, as in previous literature, some participants appear to feature a cost of lying. We argue our findings could be attributed to distributional preferences of senders who lie to avoid the receiver getting a higher payoff than herself.
Confidence as a Driver of Private Investment in Selected Countries of Central America
Janada, Carlos,Ruxandra Teodoru, Iulia
This paper argues that structural weaknesses may make private investment particularly sensitive to business confidence relative to other traditional investment drivers and global shocks. It gauges the importance of confidence over recent years in selected countries in Central America, including Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, and Guatemala. Using a vector error correction model to carry out the empirical work, a system representing global activity and the domestic economy, including a set of investment drivers (interest rates, unit labor costs, and confidence) is analyzed. The findings suggest that confidence has been, on average, the most important driver of investment in these countries, exceeded only by global factors. Since confidence, arguably, can be influenced by policymakers' decisions, structural reforms to improve the business climate and reduce uncertainty play an important role in promoting investment and economic growth.
Contagion of Fear: Is the Impact of COVID-19 on Sovereign Risk Really Indiscriminate?
Cevik, Serhan,Ozturkkal, Belma
This paper investigates the impact of infectious diseases on the evolution of sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads for a panel of 77 advanced and developing countries. Using annual data over the 2004-2020 period, we find that infectious-disease outbreaks have no discernible effect on CDS spreads, after controlling for macroeconomic and institutional factors. However, our granular analysis using high-frequency (daily) data indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on market-implied sovereign default risk. This adverse effect appears to be more pronounced in advanced economies, which may reflect the greater severity of the pandemic and depth of the ensuing economic crisis in these countries as well as widespread underreporting in developing countries due to differences in testing availability and institutional capacity. While our analysis also shows that more stringent domestic containment measures help lower sovereign CDS spreads, the macro-fiscal cost of efforts aimed at curbing the spread of the disease could undermine credit worthiness and eventually push the cost of borrowing higher.
Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity
Anderson, Gareth,Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio
Credit spreads rise after a monetary policy tightening, yet spread reactions are heterogeneous across firms. Exploiting information from a panel of corporate bonds matched with balance sheet data for U.S. non-financial firms, we document that firms with high leverage experience a more pronounced increase in credit spreads than firms with low leverage. A large fraction of this increase is due to a component of credit spreads that is in excess of firms' expected default. Our results suggest that frictions in the financial intermediation sector play a crucial role in shaping the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.
Debt Buildup and Currency Vulnerability: Evidence from Global Markets
Park, Donghyun,Ramayandi, Arief,Tian, Grace
In this study, we examine how public and private debt buildup is related to currency depreciation pressure. Our empirical analysis of a panel dataset of 59 advanced and emerging markets reveals that both private and public debt exacerbate currency vulnerability. However, the evidence of a significant effect on currency depreciation pressure is more robust and consistent for private debt than public debt. Furthermore, we find that excessive private debt buildup can be particularly harmful in emerging markets. In addition, our evidence suggests that greater dependence on external financing exacerbates the impact of debt buildup on currency stress. Overall, the evidence highlights the importance of a comprehensive debt surveillance framework which monitors both public and private debt buildup, especially in emerging markets.
Effects of Emerging Market Asset Purchase Program Announcements on Financial Markets During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Sever, Can,Goel, Rohit,Drakopoulos, Dimitrios,Papageorgiou, Evan
The COVID-19 pandemic led many emerging market central banks to adopt, for the first time, unconventional policies in the form of asset purchase programs. In this study, we analyze the effects of these announcements on domestic financial markets using both event studies and local projections methodology. We find that these asset purchase announcements lowered bond yields, did not lead to a depreciation of domestic currencies, and did not have much effect on equities. While the immediate effect of asset purchases appears positive, further consideration of the risks and longer-term effects of unconventional monetary policies is needed. We highlight the trade-offs involved with the implementation of these measures, and discuss their risks. This working paper adds to the debate on how asset purchase programs should be a regular part of the emerging market policy toolkit.
Estimation of future discretionary benefits in traditional life insurance
Florian Gach,Simon Hochgerner
In the context of traditional life insurance, the future discretionary benefits ($FDB$), which are a central item for Solvency~II reporting, are generally calculated by computationally expensive Monte Carlo algorithms. We derive analytic formulas for lower and upper bounds for the $FDB$. This yields an estimation interval for the $FDB$, and the average of lower and upper bound is a simple estimator. These formulae are designed for real world applications, and we compare the results to publicly available reporting data.
Exploring the Complicated Relationship Between Patents and Standards, With a Particular Focus on the Telecommunications Sector
Nikolaos Athanasios Anagnostopoulos
While patents and standards have been identified as essential driving components of innovation and market growth, the inclusion of a patent in a standard poses many difficulties. These difficulties arise from the contradicting natures of patents and standards, which makes their combination really challenging, but, also, from the opposing business and market strategies of different patent owners involved in the standardisation process. However, a varying set of policies has been adopted to address the issues occurring from the unavoidable inclusion of patents in standards concerning certain industry sectors with a constant high degree of innovation, such as telecommunications. As these policies have not always proven adequate enough, constant efforts are being made to improve and expand them. The intriguing and complicated relationship between patents and standards is finally examined through a review of the use cases of well-known standards of the telecommunications sector which include a growing set of essential patents.
Feeling the Heat: Climate Shocks and Credit Ratings
Cevik, Serhan,Jalles, João Tovar
Climate change is an existential threat to the world economy like no other, with complex, evolving and nonlinear dynamics that remain a source of great uncertainty. There is a bourgeoning literature on the economic impact of climate change, but research on how climate change affects sovereign risks is limited. Building on our previous research focusing on the impact of climate change on sovereign risks, this paper empirically investigates how climate change may affect sovereign credit ratings. By means of binary-choice models, we find that climate change vulnerability has adverse effects on sovereign credit ratings, after controlling for conventional macroeconomic determinants of credit worthiness. On the other hand, with regards to climate change resilience, we find that countries with greater climate change resilience benefit from higher (better) credit ratings. These findings, robust to a battery of sensitivity checks, also show that impact of climate change is disproportionately greater in developing countries due largely to weaker capacity to adapt to and mitigate the consequences of climate change.
Financial Banking Performance in January - November 2020
Zubov, Sergey
Due to the epidemiological situation, the structure and dynamics of financial performance in the banking sector have experienced changes. Amid declining margins, instability of financial markets and the unstable position of borrowers, the Russian credit institutions were forced to significantly adjust their market strategies. This resulted in a decrease of profitability of the banking system compared to the previous year.
Financial Markets in 2020: Preliminary Outcomes
Abramov, Alexander E.,Chernova, Maria,Kosyrev, Andrey,Radygin, Alexander
Despite the pandemic and economic fallout, the year 2020 can be regarded as quite successful for a host of financial markets in terms of appreciation of various currencies against the US Dollar and equity indices' positive yield. The Russian ruble was among the weakest currencies and the RTS index yield was negative. With the Russian ruble and Russian companies' equities being undervalued in 2020, one can expect the strengthening of the Russian national currency and equities' positive rate of return in 2021.Stimulus measures implemented by a host of countries have been instrumental in mitigating the pandemic's implications and hold out a hope of growth revival in 2021. However, after the pandemic most major economies will face the challenge of raising their global competitive edge and carrying out structural reforms. As seen from China's experience, in dealing with the specified challenges they give preference explicitly to the idea of the state's greater interference into the economy. It remains to be seen to what extent such a policy is effective and needed in other countries.
Government Insurance Against Natural Disasters: An Application to the ECCU
Guerson, Alejandro
This paper estimates insurance requirements against natural disasters (NDs) in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) using an insurance layering framework. The layers include a government saving fund, as well as market instruments. Each layer is calibrated to cover estimated fiscal cost of NDs according to intensity and expected damage. The results indicate that ECCU countries could target saving fund stocks for relativelly smaller and more frequent events in the range of 6-12 percent of GDP, enough to cover 95 percent of NDs' fiscal costs. To ensure financially-sustainable saving funds with a low probability of depletion, this requires annual budget savings in the range os 0.5 to 1.9 percent of GDP per year. Additional coverage could be obtained with market instruments for large and less frequent events, albeit at a significant cost.The results are based on a Monte-Carlo experiment that simulates natural disaster shocks and their impact on output and government finances.
Government Intervention and Bank Market Power: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for the COVID-19 Crisis
Tan, Brandon,Igan, Deniz,Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad,Pierri, Nicola,Presbitero, Andrea
The COVID-19 pandemic could result in large government interventions in the banking industry. To shed light on the possible consequences on market power, we rely on the experience of the global financial crisis and exploit granular data on government interventions in more than 800 banks across 27 countries between 2007 and 2017. For identification, we use a multivariate matching method. We find that intervened banks experience a significant decline in market power with respect to matched non-intervened banks. This effect is more pronounced for larger and longer interventions and is driven by a rise in costs-mostly because of higher loan impairment charges-which is not followed by a similar increase in prices.
Hang in There: Stock Market Reactions to Withdrawals of COVID-19 Stimulus Measures
Chan-Lau, Jorge A.,Zhao, Yunhui
The COVID-19 pandemic prompted unprecedented economic stimulus worldwide. We empirically examine the impact of a withdrawal of fiscal stimulus policies on the stock markets. After constructing a database of withdrawal events, we use event study analysis and cross-country regressions to assess the difference between the pre- and post-event stock price returns. We find that markets react negatively to premature withdrawals-defined as withdrawals at a time when the daily COVID cases are high relative to their historical average-likely reflecting concerns about the withdrawal impact on the prospects for economic recovery. The design of a successful exit strategy from COVID-19 policy responses should account for these concerns.
Hedging Demand and Market Intraday Momentum
Baltussen, Guido,Da, Zhi,Lammers, Sten,Martens, Martin
edging short gamma exposure requires trading in the direction of price movements,thereby creating price momentum. Using intraday returns on over 60 futures on equities,bonds, commodities, and currencies between 1974 and 2020, we document strong "marketintraday momentum" everywhere. The return during the last 30 minutes before the marketclose is positively predicted by the return during the rest of the day (from previous marketclose to the last 30 minutes). The predictive power is economically and statistically highlysignificant, and reverts over the next days. We provide novel evidence that links marketintraday momentum to the gamma hedging demand from market participants such as marketmakers of options and leveraged ETFs.
House Prices and Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from City-Level Data in India
Singh, Bhupal
This paper examines the efficacy of macroprudential policies in addressing housing prices in a developing country while underscoring the importance of fundamental factors. The estimated models using city-level data for India suggest a strong influence of fundamental factors in driving housing prices. There is compelling evidence of the effectiveness of macroprudential tools viz., Loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, risk weights, and provisioning requirements, in influencing housing price movements. A granular analysis suggests an even stronger impact on housing prices of a change in the regulatory LTV ratio for large-sized visà -vis small-sized mortgages, which buttresses their potency in fighting house price speculations. A tightening of the risk weights on the housing assets of banks causes significant downward pressure on house prices. Similarly, regulatory changes in standard asset provisioning on housing loans also influence house prices.
How COVID-19 influences healthcare workers' happiness: Panel data analysis in Japan
Eiji Yamamura,Yoshiro Tsutsui
Healthcare workers are more likely to be infected with the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) because of unavoidable contact with infected people. Although they are equipped to reduce the likelihood of infection, their distress has increased. This study examines how COVID-19 influences healthcare workers' happiness, compared to other workers. We constructed panel data via Internet surveys during the COVID-19 epidemic in Japan, from March to June 2020, by surveying the same respondents at different times. The survey period started before the state of emergency, and ended after deregulation. The key findings are as follows. (1) Overall, the happiness level of healthcare workers is lower than that of other workers. (2) The biggest disparity in happiness level, between healthcare workers and others, was observed after deregulation and not during the state of emergency. After deregulation, the difference was larger by 0.26 points, on an 11-point scale, than in the initial wave before the state of emergency.
Identifying Reform Priorities: The Role of Non-Linearities
Hellwig, Klaus-Peter
Can countries improve their business climate through reforms in specific policy areas? Kraay and Tawara (2013) find that the answer depends on how we measure the business climate. When regressing seven different business climate indices on 38 policy indicators, they find little agreement among the seven models as to which of those policy indicators matter most. I revisit this puzzle using the same data but replacing their linear models with a Random Forest algorithm. I find a strong consensus across models on the importance ranking of policy indicators: No matter which business climate index is considered, the top ten contributors to a better business climate always include high recovery rates in insolvency proceedings (i.e., cents on the dollar for creditors), shorter border formalities for both importers and exporters, and low costs for starting a business. I show that the marginal effect of reforms is heterogeneous across countries and document how reform priorities depend on country specific circumstances.
Identifying and Estimating Perceived Returns to Binary Investments
Clint Harris
I describe a method for estimating agents' perceived returns to investments that relies on cross-sectional data containing binary choices and prices, where prices may be imperfectly known to agents. This method identifies the scale of perceived returns by assuming agent knowledge of an identity that relates profits, revenues, and costs rather than by eliciting or assuming agent beliefs about structural parameters that are estimated by researchers. With this assumption, modest adjustments to standard binary choice estimators enable consistent estimation of perceived returns when using price instruments that are uncorrelated with unobserved determinants of agents' price misperceptions as well as other unobserved determinants of their perceived returns. I demonstrate the method, and the importance of using price variation that is known to agents, in a series of data simulations.
Incomplete Financial Markets and the Booming Housing Sector in China
Bayoumi, Tamim,Zhao, Yunhui
Housing is by far the most important asset in Chinese households' balance sheets. However, despite forceful and frequent government interventions, the rise in Chinese housing prices has not been contained as much as intended, a trend that has not been reversed by the COVID-19 shock. In this paper, we first provide some stylized facts and then a DSGE model (encompassing both demand and supply channels) to highlight the impact of a 'slow-moving' structural vulnerability-financial market incompleteness-on China's housing prices. The model implies that to eradicate the root causes of the rising housing price, policymakers need to go beyond the housing market itself; instead, it would be desirable to deepen financial markets because these markets would help channel financial resources to productive sectors rather than to housing speculation. This is particularly important in the COVID era because without addressing this structural vulnerability, the higher household savings and the government stimulus may fuel the housing bubble and sow seeds for a future crisis. The paper can also shed light on the housing markets in other economies that face similar vulnerabilities.
International Taxation and Luxembourg's Economy
De Mooij, Ruud A.,Prihardini, Dinar,Pflugbeil, Antje,Stavrev, Emil
Luxembourg receives ample investment from multinational corporations, in part due to some attractive features in its international tax rules. Around 95 percent of these foreign investments pass through Luxembourg via companies performing holding and/or intra-group financing activities. While their contribution to Luxembourg's economy is modest relative to their large overall balance sheets, they still generate around 3 percent of GDP in tax revenue, create almost 4500 direct jobs, and spend almost 3 percent of GDP on salaries and purchases of business services. Ongoing changes in the international corporate tax framework pose risks to these economic contributions, which this paper attempts to quantify. It also discusses options for reforms in Luxembourg's tax system that could help offset adverse revenue and economic effects.
Least Squares Monte Carlo applied to Dynamic Monetary Utility Functions
Hampus Engsner
In this paper we explore ways of numerically computing recursive dynamic monetary risk measures and utility functions. Computationally, this problem suffers from the curse of dimensionality and nested simulations are unfeasible if there are more than two time steps. The approach considered in this paper is to use a Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) algorithm to tackle this problem, a method which has been primarily considered for valuing American derivatives, or more general stopping time problems, as these also give rise to backward recursions with corresponding challenges in terms of numerical computation. We give some overarching consistency results for the LSM algorithm in a general setting as well as explore numerically its performance for recursive Cost-of-Capital valuation, a special case of a dynamic monetary utility function.
Leverage Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence on Debt Overhang and Investment
Cevik, Serhan,Miryugin, Fedor
The global economy is in the midst of an unprecedented slump caused by the coronavirus pandemic. This systemic risk like no other at a time of record-breaking debt levels, especially among nonfinancial firms across the world, could exacerbate corporate vulnerabilities, deepen macro-financial instability, and cause long-lasting damage to economic potential. Using data on more than 2.8 million nonfinancial firms from 52 countries during the period 1997-2018, we develop a two-pronged approach to investigate the relationship between corporate leverage and fixed investment spending. The empirical analysis, robust to a battery of sensitivity checks, confirm corporate leverage is highly vulnerable to disruptions in profitability and cash flow at the firm level and economic growth at the aggregate level. These findings imply that corporate debt overhang could become a strenuous burden on nonfinancial firms, especially if the COVID-19 pandemic lingers and global downturn becomes protracted.
Liquidations: DeFi on a Knife-edge
Daniel Perez,Sam M. Werner,Jiahua Xu,Benjamin Livshits
The trustless nature of permissionless blockchains renders overcollateralization a key safety component relied upon by decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols. Nonetheless, factors such as price volatility may undermine this mechanism. In order to protect protocols from suffering losses, undercollateralized positions can be liquidated. In this paper, we present the first in-depth empirical analysis of liquidations on protocols for loanable funds (PLFs). We examine Compound, one of the most widely used PLFs, for a period starting from its conception to September 2020. We analyze participants' behavior and risk-appetite in particular, to elucidate recent developments in the dynamics of the protocol. Furthermore, we assess how this has changed with a modification in Compound's incentive structure and show that variations of only 3% in an asset's dollar price can result in over 10m USD becoming liquidable. To further understand the implications of this, we investigate the efficiency of liquidators. We find that liquidators' efficiency has improved significantly over time, with currently over 70% of liquidable positions being immediately liquidated. Lastly, we provide a discussion on how a false sense of security fostered by a misconception of the stability of non-custodial stablecoins, increases the overall liquidation risk faced by Compound participants.
Mind the wealth gap: a new allocation method to match micro and macro statistics for household wealth
Michele Cantarella,Andrea Neri,Maria Giovanna Ranalli
The financial and economic crisis recently experienced by many European countries has increased demand for timely, coherent and consistent distributional information for the household sector. In the Euro area, most of the NCBs collect such information through income and wealth surveys, which are often used to inform their decisions. These surveys, however, can often suffer from biases, usually caused by non-response and under-reporting behaviours, leading to a mismatch with macroeconomic aggregates. In this paper, we develop a novel allocation method which combines information from a power law (Pareto) model and imputation procedures so to address these issues simultaneously, when only limited external information is available. We provide two important contributions: first, we adjust the weights of observed survey households for non-response bias, then, we correct for measurement error. Finally, we produce distributional indicators for four Euro-Area countries.
Motivating Banks to Lend? Understanding Bank Participation in the Main Street Lending Program
Minoiu, Camelia,Zarutskie, Rebecca,Zlate, Andrei
We examine bank participation in the Main Street Lending Program (MSLP), an emergency lending program aimed at supporting the flow of credit to small and medium-sized businesses in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Consistent with the incentives created by the program, we find that participating banks are larger, have lower capital buffers, less deposit funding, and more commercial loans on their balance sheets. MSLP lending is higher in states more impacted by the pandemic, as measured by number of COVID cases per capita, unemployment insurance claims, or changes in unemployment. Importantly, we find that the MSLP had positive spillover effects on banks' willingness to lend more generally. Banks participating in the MSLP tightened their lending standards and terms on C\&I loans relatively less following the introduction of the program. Finally, we present evidence that key parameters of the program have served to restrain the overall supply of MSLP loans by banks, as well as the demand for MSLP loans by borrowers, resulting in relatively subdued total lending volumes through the program to date.
Pandemics and Firms: Drawing Lessons from History
The global economy is in the midst of an unprecedented slump caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the likely evolution of nonfinancial corporate performance going forward, this paper investigates empirically the impact of past pandemics using firm-level data on more than 537,000 companies from 14 developing countries during the period 1998-2018. The analysis indicates that the prevalence of infectious diseases has an economically and statistically significant negative effect on nonfinancial corporate performance. This adverse impact is particularly pronounced on smaller and younger firms, compared to larger and more established corporations. We also find that a higher number of infectious-disease cases in population increases the probability of failure among nonfinancial firms, particularly for small and young firms. In the case of COVID-19, the magnitude of these effects will be much greater, given the unprecedented scale of the outbreak and strict policy responses to contain its spread.
Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries
Weisfeld, Hans,de Carvalho Filho, Irineu,Comelli, Fabio,Giri, Rahul,Hellwig, Klaus-Peter,Huang, Chengyu,Liu, Li,Lizarazo Ruiz, Sandra,Mayer Cirkel, Alexis,Presbitero, Andrea
In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss routes to broadening this focus by adding several macroeconomic and macrofinancial vulnerability concepts. The associated early warning systems draw on advances in predictive modeling.
Pricing Financial Derivatives with Exponential Quantum Speedup
Javier Gonzalez-Conde,Ángel Rodríguez-Rozas,Enrique Solano,Mikel Sanz
Pricing financial derivatives, in particular European-style options at different time-maturities and strikes, is a relevant financial problem. The dynamics describing the price of vanilla options when constant volatilities and interest rates are assumed, is governed by the Black-Scholes model, a linear parabolic partial differential equation with terminal value given by the pay-off of the option contract and no additional boundary conditions. Here, we present a digital quantum algorithm to solve Black-Scholes equation on a quantum computer for a wide range of relevant financial parameters by mapping it to the Schr\"odinger equation. The non-Hermitian nature of the resulting Hamiltonian is solved by embedding the dynamics into an enlarged Hilbert space, which makes use of only one additional ancillary qubit. Moreover, we employ a second ancillary qubit to transform initial condition into periodic boundary conditions, which substantially improves the stability and performance of the protocol. This algorithm shows a feasible approach for pricing financial derivatives on a digital quantum computer based on Hamiltonian simulation, technique which differs from those based on Monte Carlo simulations to solve the stochastic counterpart of the Black Scholes equation. Our algorithm remarkably provides an exponential speedup since the terms in the Hamiltonian can be truncated by a polynomial number of interactions while keeping the error bounded. We report expected accuracy levels comparable to classical numerical algorithms by using 10 qubits and 94 entangling gates on a fault-tolerant quantum computer, and an expected success probability of the post-selection procedure due to the embedding protocol above 60\%.
Public Debt Dynamics and Intra-Year Exchange Rate Fluctuations
Acosta Ormaechea, Santiago
The public sector, in carrying out its operations, often incurs foreign currency denominated liabilities and, as such, is exposed to exchange rate fluctuations that could affect the value of public debt to GDP ratios over time. This paper shows that converting foreign currency denominated flows and stocks into local currency using the average and the end-of-period exchange rates, respectively, as envisaged in public finance manuals, gives rise to an identifiable stock-flow adjustment term-due to intra-year exchange rate fluctuations-that affects public debt accumulation. Importantly, the inclusion of this often-ignored stock-flow adjustment term is critical to accurately project public debt levels and any related indicator that could in turn inform about the risk of debt distress. Using a novel dataset covering 82 countries during 2008-19, the paper shows that this stock flow adjustment term is sizable in countries experiencing large exchange rate depreciations, namely above the 99th percentile of the full sample, reaching 1.2 percent of GDP. Interestingly, the measurement of policy-related concepts such as interest rate-growth differentials and debt stabilizing primary balances are also affected by intra-year exchange rate fluctuations, and in non-negligible ways.
Small and Vulnerable: Small Firm Productivity in the Great Productivity Slowdown
Chen, Sophia,Lee, Do
We provide broad-based evidence of a firm size premium of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Europe after the Global Financial Crisis. The TFP growth of smaller firms was more adversely affected and diverged from their larger counterparts after the crisis. The impact was progressively larger for medium, small, and micro firms relative to large firms. It was also disproportionally larger for firms with limited credit market access. Moreover, smaller firms were less likely to have access to safer banks: those that were better capitalized banks and with a presence in the credit default swap market. Horseraces suggest that firm size may be a more important and robust vulnerability indicator than balance sheet characteristics. Our results imply that the tightening of credit market conditions during the crisis, coupled with limited credit market access especially among micro, small, and medium firms, may have contributed to the large and persistent drop in aggregate TFP.
Sovereign Debt Standstills
Hatchondo, Juan Carlos,Martinez, Leonardo,Sosa‐Padilla, César
As a response to economic crises triggered by COVID-19, sovereign debt standstill proposals emphasize debt payment suspensions without haircuts on the face value of debt obligations. We quantify the effects of standstills using a standard default model. We find that a one-year standstill generates welfare gains for the sovereign equivalent to a permanent consumption increase of between 0.1% and 0.3%, depending on the initial shock. However, except when it avoids a default, the standstill also implies capital losses for creditors of between 9% and 27%, which is consistent with their reluctance to participate in these operations and indicates that this reluctance would persist even without a free-riding or holdout problem. Standstills also generate a form of 'debt overhang' and thus the opportunity for a 'voluntary debt exchange': complementing the standstill with haircuts could reduce creditors' losses and simultaneously increase welfare gains. Our results cast doubts on the emphasis on standstills without haircuts.
The Estimation Risk and the IRB Supervisory Formula
Casellina, Simone ,Landini, Simone,Uberti, Mariacristina
In many standard derivation and presentations of risk measures like the Value-at-Risk or the Expected Shortfall, it is assumed that all the model's parameters are known. In practice, however, the parameters must be estimated and this introduces an additional source of uncertainty that is usually not accounted for. The Prudential Regulators have formally raised the issue of errors stemming from the internal model estimation process in the context of credit risk, calling for margins of conservatism to cover possible underestimation in capital. Notwithstanding this requirement, to date, a solution shared by banks and regulators/supervisors has not yet been found. In our paper, we investigate the effect of the estimation error in the framework of the Asymptotic Single Risk Factor model that represents the baseline for the derivation of the credit risk measures under the IRB approach. We exploit Monte Carlo simulations to quantify the bias induced by the estimation error and we explore an approach to correct for this bias. Our approach involves only the estimation of the long run average probability of default and not the estimation of the asset correlation given that, in practice, banks are not allowed to modify this parameter. We study the stochastic characteristics of the probability of default estimator that can be derived from the Asymptotic Single Risk Factor framework and we show how to introduce a correction to control for the estimation error. Our approach does not require introducing in the Asymptotic Single Risk Factor model additional elements like the prior distributions or other parameters which, having to be estimated, would introduce another source of estimation error. This simple and easily implemented correction ensures that the probability of observing an exception (i.e. a default rate higher than the estimated quantile of the default rate distribution) is equal to the desired confidence level. We show a practical application of our approach relying on real data.
The Market Measure of Carbon Risk and its Impact on the Minimum Variance Portfolio
Théo Roncalli,Théo Le Guenedal,Frédéric Lepetit,Thierry Roncalli,Takaya Sekine
Like ESG investing, climate change is an important concern for asset managers and owners, and a new challenge for portfolio construction. Until now, investors have mainly measured carbon risk using fundamental approaches, such as with carbon intensity metrics. Nevertheless, it has not been proven that asset prices are directly impacted by these fundamental-based measures. In this paper, we focus on another approach, which consists in measuring the sensitivity of stock prices with respect to a carbon risk factor. In our opinion, carbon betas are market-based measures that are complementary to carbon intensities or fundamental-based measures when managing investment portfolios, because carbon betas may be viewed as an extension or forward-looking measure of the current carbon footprint. In particular, we show how this new metric can be used to build minimum variance strategies and how they impact their portfolio construction.
The Two-Sided Market Network Analysis Based on Transfer Entropy & Labelr
Seung Bin Baik
This study more complex digital platforms in early stages in the two-sided market to produce powerful network effects. In this study, I use Transfer Entropy to look for super users who connect hominids in different networks to achieve higher network effects in the digital platform in the two-sided market, which has recently become more complex. And this study also aims to redefine the decision criteria of product managers by helping them define users with stronger network effects. With the development of technology, the structure of the industry is becoming more difficult to interpret and the complexity of business logic is increasing. This phenomenon is the biggest problem that makes it difficult for start-ups to challenge themselves. I hope this study will help product managers create new digital economic networks, enable them to make prioritized, data-driven decisions, and find users who can be the hub of the network even in small products.


Alterna v9.8.1 is a retina-prepared, completely responsive Multi-Purpose WordPress Theme. Free Alterna v9.8.1 – Ultra Multi-Purpose WordPress Theme Download .Alterna gives you an amazing premium subject to make your site for a site; business, corporate, portfolio, blog, items, magazine, shop and so on… Alterna likewise Integrate WooCommerce, WPML and so on…Free Alterna v9.8.1 – Ultra Multi-Purpose WordPress Theme Download .
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21 October 2014, at 10:52a.m.
US - To see Lean Hogs futures prices fall in October is not an unusual occurrence. To see them fall $5.75 in two days without any real critical market development is another thing entirely, writes Steve Meyer For the National Hog Farmer.
I'm not real sure exactly what happened but there are a few "usual suspects" that likely played a role.First, equity markets have taken a beating lately with the Dow giving back all of its 2014 gains. Is it a "correction" or the end of the bull market? Will turmoil in the Middle East (now there's a news item, right?).
Ebola, continued economic weakness in Europe, etc., etc., etc. push the world back into recession? What would a slowing economy do to commodities? How could the Fed even respond given that they haven't unwound their last response yet? All of those denote risk and every now and then that risk visits itself upon commodities. If that is the case here, $5.75 is probably a small hit.
Second, prices were high! The counter-seasonal rally for pork cuts and hogs had carried Lean Hog futures roughly $10 higher in just three weeks – in August and September! I don't think a big break was necessarily inevitable but it was certainly no surprise, especially in this year of wild, often unjustifiable price swings. It's been a banner year for volatility and what evidence is available to suggest it is over?
Third, there was a rash of stories about how porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) will be less severe and hog supplies will be higher. I can't fault either of those viewpoints since I share them. But the stories seemed to have "Don't Worry, Be Happy" playing in the background. I believe hardly any of what we now know about PEDV would warrant any feelings quite so good. Pharrell Williams might be happy but, regardless of what kind of hat he wears, he isn't the poster boy for PEDV yet.
The situation is indeed better. As can be seen in Figure 1, the number of case accessions has been pretty stable in the range of 50 to 70 per week since late-August. The University of Minnesota has reported new sow herd breaks in only two of the past 16 weeks (three total sow farms) among the 19 large systems (739 total sow farms and 2.084 million total sows) that it surveys. The number of weaned pig case accessions (the numbers I used to compute pig losses from March through August) dropped to its lowest level (44) since one year ago (39) in September.
Producers and veterinarians both know far more than they did one year ago about this disease and biosecurity practices have improved markedly. The new vaccines may not be great for protecting naïve animals but they do boost antibody production in sows that have been exposed and thus carry the promise of reducing pre-weaning mortality.
How much difference will we see this winter? That is the question and traders seemed to take last week's stories to mean everything was going to be back to normal. In fact, it appears to me that the futures market has priced a PEDV solution into prices for next summer and fall. The veterinarians I've spoken with don't think it will be that easy. The cold days of November and December are just around the corner and we'll see just how effective all of these measures will be in controlling PEDV when the conditions for its survival outside of a host improve.
Futures markets for next year are offering very good hog margins at present. The only year in history in which producers have averaged higher than the $42/head current in my model is this year. You should find it very difficult to say no to those kinds of margins. The risk of not having the pigs is an understandable and legitimate reason to do so. So is the fact that your balance sheet is probably in pretty good shape after this remarkable 2014.
Don't let those reasons deter you completely. "Hedge part of them and hope you are wrong" was Professor Glenn Grimes' admonition when margins looked good. I think hog supplies could be lower and thus prices be higher than the futures market apparently expects, but the good professor's instructions, it appears to me, apply now quite well.


Piaggio?s ASR for France and Monaco since 2001, Boutsen Aviation is proud to announce that it has sold its 130th aircraft and delivered the first of 8 new Piaggio P180 Avanti II (5 firm and 3 options) ordered recently by 4 different French companies.
Dominique Trinquet, sales manager: ?The advantages of the P180 in terms of cabin size, comfort, speed and operating costs over all its competitors are no longer questioned, the existing Avanti owners are delighted with their ?Ferrari of the Sky?.
Furthermore, the new Avanti II has proven even more attractive now with the extra power of its PT6A-66B engines and the increased max. take off weight.?
Thierry Boutsen, CEO: ?I am proud of the constant progression my company shows and I am absolutely delighted with the success encountered by the P180 Avanti II in the territory that was allocated to us by Piaggio. In addition, the customer support of Piaggio in Genoa has now become very efficient, this is boosting customers? confidence?.
Six of the new Avanti II will be available for chartering in France. The other two will be used by private companies. This will make a total of 12 Avanti in the French sky by mid-2008!


text:
package gwbot.message;

/**
 *
 * @author Benedict Etzel <developer@beheh.de>
 */
public class CrashMessage extends AbstractCarMessage {

	public CrashMessage(final String name, final String color) {
		super(name, color);
	}

	@Override
	protected String msgType() {
		return "crash";
	}

}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


Home / Lil Yachty / TM88 / Young Thug / .@TM88 .@youngthug and .@lilyachty - Release "Been Thru A Lot"
.@TM88 .@youngthug and .@lilyachty - Release "Been Thru A Lot"
Young Thug and Lil Yachty already dropped a major heater this year when they linked up for Chance the Rapper's Coloring Book cut "Mixtape." Now, they're back together thanks to the work of TM88. The producer decided to reunite the duo for his new track "Been Thru A Lot," and we couldn't be happier about the results.
"I been through a lot/So don't try to stop me/They think that they got me/But they cannot stop me," warbles Yachty on the chorus, before Young Thug comes in to deliver some typical vocal acrobatics. Yachty later lays down a nice verse of his own, and then Thug drops back in to bring the track full circle. TM88 lays down a bouncy beat, and the whole thing comes together great.
Thugger is coming off the release of his new project Jeffery, which found him naming all the tracks after his idols, including Kanye West, Wyclef Jean, and—of course—Harambe. Jeffery was actually Thug's third project of the year, following I'm Up and Slime Season 3. Yachty's also had a pretty dynamite year, making the XXL Freshman cover and dropping Lil Boat and Summer Songs 2, not to mention a litany of guest features. With TM88 working with Juicy J and Wiz Khalifa on their mixtape TGOD Mafia: Rude Awakening, 2016 has clearly been a big year for all three contributors.


My name is Antoinette Crafford and I am the General Manager of a specialist HR consulting firm, based in Pretoria, called Prime Africa People Consulting. One of our service offerings is Business and Life Coaching. I am a certified Master Life Coach and a member of COMENSA.


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SENI SILAT CAPE TOWN
What Is Seni Silat?
Pukulan Melaka
Silat Shop
SILAT JOURNEY 2012
Silat4Life
Malay family reconnects with their Martial art heritage
Practical tactics: Prof Dr Azlan Ghanie (right) trains his student Dr Mustafa Bakri and his two sons.
A father wants his family to learn silat because it is not only a form of martial arts, but steeped in the Malay traditions of adab (respect) and adat (customs).
EPIDEMIOLOGIST Dr Mustafa Bakri's fascination with silat started from watching old Malay films from the 1960s such as Anak Buluh Betong and Dharma Kesuma.
"I was fascinated by how silat invoked the spirit of heroism and justice. But after being introduced to different silat techniques such as silat lintau and silat panji alamin secondary school, I realised martial arts acts in movies were choreographed, be it in Malay, European, Hollywood or Japanese movies.
"Silat teaches the core art of martial arts, minus the fancy moves seen on the big screen. In a real fight, the scenario is entirely different. Silat is thus far one of the best and most practical," shares Dr Mustafa, 57, who works at the Seremban district health office.
The Perak-born doctor attends Silat Melayu Keris Lok 9 lessons which he considers one of the most practical self-defence tactics.
"It is one of the few silat systems where students (beginners included) are encouraged to use the keris in both armed and unarmed combat. Silat exponents can use simple yet effective movements to counter attack the opponent.
"To me, Silat Melayu Keris Lok 9 is the most practical silat by far as it combines skill and rigorous exercise. It requires minimal running, pumping or punching unlike other silat forms that I have seen, making it a perfect martial arts form-cum-exercise for me," he said.
Silat Melayu Keris Lok 9 is an old system in Silat Melayu that can be traced back to the Malacca Sultanate and it is believed Malay warriors used it to fight Portuguese invaders.
The modern version of this form of martial arts was developed by silat exponent Prof Dr Azlan Ghanie, who had learnt it from his father Abdul Ghanie Abu Bakar, who inherited it from his grandfather Abang Salleh Datu Patinggi Borhassan.
Dr Mustafa, who has been learning silat since 2007, is one of Azlan's students. He was so enthusiastic about silat that he has persuaded his wife Noraishah Mohamed, 49, and his sons Muhammad Syahridwan, 13 and Muhammad Syahriezlan, 11, to participate in Azlan's classes.
Quick and fast moves: Dr Mustafa Bakri and wife Noraishah Mohamed testing their sparring skills during silat class.
"Since my wife and sons do not do much physical activities, the classes help to keep them active," said Dr Mustafa who has six children.
Noraishah, a homemaker, was inspired to join silat classes due to its simplicity and practicality. "We learn self-defense tips for women, be it in public spaces or at home. It is especially useful as I am a housewife and I am home alone most of the time," said Noraishah, who has been a silat student for two years.
Muhammad Syahridwan's interest was sparked by his father's enthusiasm. "My parents have been silat enthusiasts and their interest rubbed off on us. I enjoy my silat lessons as they build confidence and discipline. It is also a good form of exercise," said the secondary school student. Dr Mustafa works in Seremban but travels back to be with his family in Rawang during weekends. Every Saturday, his family travels from Rawang to Setapak, Kuala Lumpur for their silat lessons.
Students start their classes with Senaman Melayu Tua, an ancient form of physical exercise that focuses on breathing techniques, stretches and movements to strengthen the body. After the warming up session, students learn different forms of loks (a Malay term for the curve on the blade of the keris).
Hidden in the palm: Students learn to use anak badik, a weapon used by women in self-defence.
There are five loks (numbered one, three, five, seven and nine) to be learned to complete the basic syllabus. Learning the loks is the key to the principles of fighting in armed and empty hand combat. The basic syllabus takes two years of regular training to complete.
Dr Mustafa adds that besides an art of self defence, silat also places emphasis onadab (respect) and adat (customs). Traditional Malay values are maintained throughout classes where students are taught how to respect their elders and each other. Students are also taught how to confront danger (with or without weapons) which is useful for different age groups and gender.
"Silat practitioners are taught to respect our opponents and training tools. Before each session, we have to bow a little to shake hands with partners and kiss our weapon as a sign of respect. This traditional martial arts form teach us to avoid trouble and protect ourselves from danger. Being able to handle the keris during practice has helped boost my sons' self confidence," explained Dr Mustafa, adding that plastic or wooden knives are also used during sparring sessions.
Traditionally, the keris is regarded more than just a weapon and the adab (manners/ rules of behaviour) surrounding this art is extremely important. The keris is a symbol of the ancient Malay culture and must be respected, and those who own a keris carry heavy responsibilities. Learning the customs and traditions associated with the kerisis an integral part of the syllabus.
Another benefit of learning silat is that it is good for health as its practitioners learn how to regulate their breathing. "Some silat students with asthma and shortness of breath are now more aware of proper breathing techniques. Learning how to improve breathing is among the core essentials of silat," said Azlan, who charges RM50 monthly for his silat classes.
Azlan has also further developed Senaman Tua – a traditional exercise system based on the movements found in Silat Melayu Keris Lok 9. He had turned to this exercise form after he suffering from a stroke at 32, which left him partially paralysed.
"Although I sought all sorts of treatments ranging from modern to traditional, I didn't show signs of improvement. I eventually started to practise various techniques ofSenaman Tua (which I had learnt from my father) and my health gradually improved," recounted Azlan, who is the founder and editor of Seni Beladiri, a monthly magazine dedicated to the Malaysian martial arts scene.
Dr Mustafa hopes more youngsters will learn silat as it is a self-defense art passed down from the warriors of the olden days. "Sadly, some feel that silat is out of fashion and not a necessity. Hopefully more students will sign up for classes as it is a powerful martial arts form that stresses on team spirit and confidence."
*For more details on Silat Melayu Keris Lok 9, go to senibeladiri.com.my.
article from: http://www.thestar.com.my/Lifestyle/Family/Features/2013/09/25/Bonding-over-an-ancient-art.aspx
What's hot around the silat world!
Exercize
Exersize
Silat Warriors
Women In Silat

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
Oliver Johnson – CEO
Oliver leads the company and is responsible for the quality and content of the Point Topic web services.
Oliver has been involved in online environments and development since the late 1980's and has planned and implemented a wide range of multimedia-related projects including TV and video production with credits for broadcast and early groundbreaking internet implementations.
He has worked as a marketing and website manager for small-to-medium online retail organisations, as a website producer for leading agencies and was a senior producer for several projects for blue chip multinationals including internet, intranet, B2C and B2B winning a number of industry awards.
He holds a BSc in Maths and Economics from the University of London.
Tim Johnson – Chief Analyst
Tim Johnson is the founder of Point Topic. Tim also co-founded Ovum, now a part of the Informa Group PLC and previously the biggest independent European-based IT and telecoms analysis group.
Tim is well known as an expert in broadband developments around the world. He frequently speaks at conferences in Europe, Asia-Pacifica and America. His expertise is based on long experience of new media, and the technologies which enable them.
His breadth of experience provides a strong foundation for Point Topic's focus on the broadband industry.
Geoff Eagland – Chairman
Geoff Eagland is lead investor and Chairman of Point Topic Ltd. A successful entrepreneur, he built his company Envoy into one of the leading UK specialists in computer-telephony integration.
Veronica Speiser – UK Analyst
Veronica has been contributing research to Point Topic since 2012, whilst also carrying out quality control for much of our UK and international broadband markets databases. Since July, Veronica has been the leading research associate for our UK Plus broadband market data.
Veronica's main background is in the education sector where she worked for nearly a decade as an international marketing and development officer for a major London university before moving into the private and public secondary school sector. She oversaw the marketing and development of national and local teacher training programmes before shifting her focus to the UK telecoms market for Point Topic. Veronica's main areas of interest are research and analysis of UK telecoms infrastructure developments and investments, broadband availability and governmental and public sector policies shaping the digital landscape in the UK.
Veronica holds a BA (Hons) in International Relations and History from the University of Westminster.
Jolanta Stanke – Research Director
Jolanta has been contributing to Point Topic research since 2007. She became Senior Editor in 2009 and Research Director in 2015. Over that time she has recruited and trained the Research Network of reliable and highly skilled broadband analysts. Jolanta's main areas of interest are research and analysis of broadband tariffs, availability, take-up and forecasts, both in the UK and globally, as well as a leading role in the development of Point Topic's CMS.
Previously, Jolanta managed various research projects focusing on public policy and voluntary sector while working for research institutes at University of Oxford and University of Cambridge. A Cambridge graduate in Economics and a Fulbright scholar, she also has an MBA and PhD in Management Studies.
Isabelle Anderson – Marketing, Admin & Sales Assistant
Isabelle joined Point Topic in November 2020. Isabelle started her career in marketing working for Newsweek Magazine, moving on to advertising sales representing several international publications in the UK such as Les Echos in France, La Repubblica in Italy and Handelsblatt in Germany as well as tech website Tom's Hardware. She then worked for local television station Mustard TV in Norwich before taking time out of the industry to study at top UK drama school Italia Conti Academy of Arts.


in rats long hair is recessive to short hair. A true-breeding (homozygous ) short-haired male is mated to long-haired female. what will their litter look like?
Cryptozoology is a field of study aimed at proving the existence of mystery animals such as Bigfoot and the Loch Ness monster. Why is cryptozoology not considered a true science?
how do scientist develop scientific explanations about subjects that are impossible to study through controlled experiments?
How can a scientist know if what he/she is looking at, under the microscope, is in fact a cell? What can mislead us to think we are looking at a cell but in fact we are looking at non-living structures of about the same size?
how is undigested materials eliminated?
What causes breakers to crash into the ocean floor?
What is the lowest level of organization to include both biotic and abiotic factors?
I need help on my bio hw. due tomorrow morning !!!
I break down organic matter into simpler compounds. I am a?
What organisms cause red tides when they produce an algal bloom?
2 – Slimotosis Sponge Bob notices that his pal Gary is suffering from slimotosis, which occurs when the shell develops a nasty slime and gives off a horrible odor. His friend Patrick tells him that rubbing seaweed on the shell is the perfect cure, while Sandy says that drinking Dr. Kelp will be a better cure. Sponge Bob decides to test this cure by rubbing Gary with seaweed for 1 week and having him drink Dr. Kelp. After a week of treatment, the slime is gone and Gary's shell smells better. What was the initial observation? What is the independent variable? What is the dependent variable? What should Sponge Bob's conclusion be?
Why do we study atoms in biology?


(4 April 2007, Germany) Near midnight, a 49-year-old man attempted to impress his wife with his unbelievable strength. He climbed over the balcony of their 7th floor flat, clung to the outside of the parapet, and began a set of pull-ups. After a few pull-ups, which were undoubtedly impressive to his wife, his sedentary lifestyle began to take its toll. His muscles lost strength, and he was unable to lift himself back onto the balcony. He eventually fell seven stories (eight if you include the ground floor) and impaled himself on a thornbush. Ouch! The official verdict placed the blame squarely and pointedly on the macho showmanship of the deceased.
The pushmi-pullyu is a fictional Doctor Doolittle animal with two heads at opposite ends of its body. When it tries to move, both heads try to pull in opposite directions."
(9 October 2007, Ohio) The German man is not alone in his efforts to impress a woman. An 18-year-old was lured by the siren song of the guard rail onto his girlfriend's 11th floor balcony.	Attempting to impress the lady, he too began a set of pull-ups, only to lose his grip and plummet eleven stories (ten if you omit the ground floor) to land face-down on the parking lot. The Ohio coroner was more charitable than his German counterpart. This death was ruled accidental.
RELATED STORY: "What I Can Still Do"
"Best way to get rid of the unwanted hubby."


Merck Millipore, Life Science subsidiary of Merck, Darmstadt, Germany, invites you to join a free, on-demand webinar on ways to overcome rapid microbial method (RMM) validation challenges.Validation of rapid microbial method is necessary to ensure compliance with regulatory guidelines for controlling the diverse contamination issues that face the pharmaceutical industry. Recent updates to guidelines worldwide on validation of alternative microbiological methods – specifically USP Chapter 1223, PDA Technical Report No. 33 and Ph. Eur. chapter 5.1.6 – bring important new structure and requirements. During this webinar, Dr. Marcel Goverde, Managing Director of MGP Consulting specializing in pharmaceutical microbiology, discusses these changes, shares insights on alternative methods for rapid microbial method that can help streamline laboratory workflows and offers a customer case study for effective quantitative bioburden testing.Join here for freeMerck Millipore is the Life Science subsidiary of Merck, Darmstadt, Germany. Merck Millipore and the M logo are registered trademarks of Merck, Darmstadt, Germany.


text:
Alex Brandon/AP
How the Burden of Afghanistan Could Fall on Trump's Supporters
New research shows the president performed better in parts of the country with higher Iraq and Afghanistan casualty rates—so he might regret sending more troops into harm's way.
By DOUGLAS L. KRINER and FRANCIS X. SHEN
Douglas L. Kriner is professor of political science at Boston University. He is a co-author of The Casualty Gap: The Causes and Consequences of American Wartime Inequalities (Oxford University Press, 2010).
Francis X. Shen is associate professor of law at the University of Minnesota. He is a co-author of The Casualty Gap: The Causes and Consequences of American Wartime Inequalities (Oxford University Press, 2010).
In his Afghanistan speech this week, President Donald Trump announced that while his "original instinct was to pull out," he will nonetheless be sending more American troops—it wasn't clear how many—into the country. "Since the founding of our republic," Trump said, "American patriots from every generation have given their last breath on the battlefield for our nation and for our freedom."
But, for all his lofty rhetoric, Trump might come to regret this decision. In a recently released research paper, we examined the relationship between states' and counties' casualty rates in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and their electoral support for Trump. What we found was a significant correlation between war casualty rates and Trump votes. In fact, we think three states key to Trump's victory—Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—might have swung the other way if they'd had even modestly lower casualty rates.
Our findings suggest that Trump drew support from American communities that have seen firsthand the human costs of war—and could pay those costs again with coming escalation in Afghanistan. Trump's Afghan gambit, in other words, risks retribution at the ballot box in 2020.
Trump's iconoclastic campaign for the presidency was often short on clear policy proposals. But one area in which he distinguished himself from his opponents, in both the primaries and the general election, was foreign policy. While he sounded traditional Republican notes demanding increased military spending, he also starkly denounced America's military misadventures in Iraq and Afghanistan: He routinely called both conflicts "total disasters" and "wastes of money," and pledged that his administration would put "America first" and avoid the "stupid wars" of its predecessors.
Trump didn't directly address the class and cultural gaps in military sacrifice in America, but his rhetoric likely resonated with the small slice of the country hardest hit by recent wars. Today, less than 1 percent of the nation's population has served in theater in Iraq or Afghanistan, while those who have died or were wounded in battle in those wars comprise less than one-tenth of 1 percent of the nation's population. And these people are disproportionately drawn from communities that are more rural, less wealthy and less educated—communities that are often labeled a key part of the Trump base.
Might these Americans' anger, frustration and sadness over these wars have propelled Trump to victory? We set out to answer this question by looking at the relationship between state-level U.S. casualty rates (per million residents) in Iraq and Afghanistan, as tracked by the Defense Department, and Trump's vote share in each state, relative to GOP nominee Mitt Romney's in 2012. (This allowed us to control for the fact that Republicans generally might do better in high-casualty constituencies.)
We found that Trump significantly outperformed Romney in places that shouldered a disproportionate share of the war burden in Iraq and Afghanistan. True, Trump surpassed Romney's share of the two-party vote in 40 of 50 states. But, as the figure below shows, Trump was particularly successful in states that had suffered higher casualty rates in Iraq and Afghanistan.
We then examined data from each of the nation's more than 3,000 counties, where the disparities in wartime sacrifice are even more extreme. At the county level, we were able to control for a range of other variables—including each county's median income, educational level, racial demographics, urban-rural balance and military veteran population. Again, we found strong evidence that Trump was particularly successful in high-casualty constituencies.
Trump's inroads in these communities, where many voters had abandoned Republican candidates in the 2000s, may have been pivotal. Our state-level regressions suggest that if three states key to Trump's victory—Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—had suffered even a modestly lower casualty rate, all three could have flipped from red to blue and sent Hillary Clinton to the White House.
Americans who lost friends, family members and neighbors in the war in Afghanistan may have seen Clinton, who backed President Barack Obama's decision to send more troops there, as supportive of those efforts; Trump's isolationist rhetoric, on the other hand, likely seemed refreshing. But what now? Trump, convinced by the foreign policy establishment and brushing off the advice of his now-ousted strategist Steve Bannon, is expanding the very war he once so strongly criticized. In doing so, he joins George W. Bush, Obama, Clinton and virtually every other mainstream politician in overlooking the inequality of military sacrifice today in America.
Can Trump get away with it? We don't think so. Already, important elements of the Trump base—led by Bannon and the Breitbart News machine—are pushing back against the president's reversal. And our research suggests that if Trump wants to win again in 2020, he should be wary of amassing more casualties from overseas wars. As former House Speaker Newt Gingrich recently observed, casualties always pose risks to political leaders. But these risks are particularly acute for Trump, as they would fall heavily on his political base.
The foreign policy establishment might be cheering Trump's decision. But his strongest supporters aren't rooting for the establishment. And they won't be rooting for Trump if their family members and neighbors return
from Afghanistan's war zone dead or wounded. Trump finally listened to the experts in the room. But, unfortunately for the nation and for his electoral fortunes, this is one time he should have stuck with his instincts.
More from POLITICO Magazine
California's road to recovery runs through D.C. Republicans
By Jeremy B. White
Updated 05/08/20 09:44 PM EDT
Why New Jersey's ventilator guidelines may favor younger, whiter patients
By Sam Sutton and Carly Sitrin
Rhode Island ends specific restrictions on New Yorkers — by making them national
By Bill Mahoney and Josh Gerstein
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Michael Ealy is joining the fourth season cast of the Being Mary Jane TV show on BET, starring Gabrielle Union. Ealy played Theo in the third and final season of The Following, which was cancelled by FOX in 2015. He also starred as the android Dorian, in Almost Human, which FOX also cancelled, after just one season.
Ealy currently plays Eric Warner, in the second season of ABC's Secrets and Lies, starring Juliette Lewis.
What do you think? Are you a Michael Ealy fan? Will you tune in to catch him on the fourth season of BET's Being Mary Jane TV series?
More about: Almost Human, Almost Human: canceled or renewed?, Being Mary Jane, Being Mary Jane: canceled or renewed?, Secrets and Lies, Secrets and Lies: canceled or renewed?, The Following, The Following: canceled or renewed?
Michael Ealy is the only character that keeps me tuning in every week. Nothing personal except he's has been the only real male actor that I find very difficult see through. He is a great actor! Gangster, classy , vulnerable. All of it! I believe every character he throws himself into. And he is Justin in Being Mary Jane. I don't see anyone else that could play the part. So sorry to see him go.


Real Estate FAQ - Rosi & Gardner, P.C.
It refers to the notion in law by which openly and notoriously possessing, occupying or using some real estate to which you have some colorable claim of right or title, for a period of 15 years, with the true owner's knowledge and without objection, might prevent the true owner from denying you use or ownership of it.
Do I need a lawyer to review my real estate purchase?
Of course, nothing requires it. But consider this: most real estate agents, even if you contacted them, actually work for the seller (unless you hire that agent as a Buyer's Broker). Real estate, especially your home, is the single-largest investment most people will make during their lifetime. Do you really think that you should go through with that deal, with no one having looked it over, for you?
What happens to the earnest money if a real estate transaction does not close?
"Earnest money" is the deposit made by a buyer who is seriously interested in a piece of property. If the deal closes, the money is applied to the purchase. If it does not . . . Everyone must look to the purchase contract to determine what happens to that money. If the contract doesn't specify the circumstances of your case, you may have a dispute between the parties, that will need to be worked out.
What does "tenants by the entireties" mean?
"Tenants by the entireties" is a type of ownership available only to a married ciuple, under Michigan law. If you and your spouse own property as tenants by the entireties, you both, together, own the whole. A creditor of only one of you cannot get at any portion of that property.
How is a land contract different from a mortgage?
There are many differences, but the first is that as a land contract buyer, you do not get legal title (ownership) of the property, until the contract is fully paid. You have only an equitable claim to title, that can be cut off (forfeited) for virtually any breach of the contract.
What can I do if someone cuts down my trees?
The unauthorized removal of timber or trees has a special remedy, for the landowner, under Michigan law.


"I am sailing, stormy waters, to be near you"
A steep footpath from the village leads down to a beautiful bay made up of rocks, pebbles and sand.
It is edged by rock pools and backed by steep cliffs along which the Isle of Anglesey coastal path runs. Car park available.
Church Bay is adjacent to the Anglesey Coast Path and the Wales Coast Path.
The tide at Church Bay is currently falling. Low tide will be at approximately 10:08 AM, and the next high tide will be at approximately 4:28 PM.
There is free parking for 40 cars by the beach.
around 5 miles east-northeast as the seagull flies, around 7 miles by road.
around 8 miles east-northeast as the seagull flies, around 10 miles by road.
just over a mile south-southwest as the seagull flies, around 2 miles by road.
around 9 miles south as the seagull flies, around 12 miles by road.
around 11 miles south-southeast as the seagull flies, around 17 miles by road.
around 11 miles south as the seagull flies, around 17 miles by road.
around 12 miles south-southeast as the seagull flies, around 18 miles by road.
Visitor information for Church Bay, Isle of Anglesey, Wales. Weather, tides, visitor comments, beach facilities, photos, nearest postcode, beach information and nearby accommodation.


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Saks Fifth Avenue Anchors The Gardens on El Paseo Experience
The Gardens on El Paseo in Palm Desert offers shopping in a unique outdoor garden setting to enhance the luxury experience of anchor stores like Saks Fifth Avenue.
JIM POWERS July 30, 2020 Current Digital, El Paseo, Shopping
Saks Fifth Avenue anchors a unique collection of luxury stores in one outdoor garden setting in Palm Desert.
PHOTOGRAPHS COURTESY THE GARDENS ON EL PASEO
The coronavirus pandemic has made shopping more calculated. Browsing may not be as high of a priority. Buying the item or items is. And yet we still want the store experience that you can't find online. More than 70 percent of business is done inside Saks Fifth Avenue stores, says Dennis Flaig, general manager at the Saks location at the Gardens on El Paseo in Palm Desert. An anchor to a unique collection of luxury stores in one outdoor garden setting, Saks has deep desert roots reaching back to the 1950s when the store was located in Palm Springs.
"I've worked in other retail locations and bigger cities," says Flaig, "and the store kind of doesn't necessarily get lost, but it tends to just kind of blend in with everything and it's just another department store. But the great thing about Saks Fifth Avenue here is that we're a part of this community. We are so involved in charities and lots of local organizations, and it feels more like a family here in the community rather than just a retail store."
While recent steps have been taken by California to flatten the curve of the recent spike in coronavirus cases such as closing shopping malls, the Gardens on El Paseo is open with over 50 stores ranging from clothing, home decor, and elegant takeout and pickup eating options. Like all of the stores at the Gardens, Saks has taken measures to ensure a safe shopping experience from training its 115 employees to elevated cleaning standards.
Flaig chatted with Palm Springs Life on how Saks and the Gardens on El Paseo continue to meet customer needs even under these trying circumstances.
What precautions do you have in place at Saks to ease customers who are anxious about shopping in a store?
So the first thing we started off with is our own employees. They had a full day of training on cleanliness and also just taking care of themselves. We do temperature checks for them as they come in. And then each of us also fills out a daily health evaluation form every single day. Throughout the store, we have cleanings going on all day at every entrance. We have hand sanitizer stations throughout high touch points in the entire store. In our cosmetic area, we do deep cleanings every two hours. In shoes we've actually had to do a lot of social-distancing practices with signage and also retraining our teams on how to sell footwear to clients. And then in our other areas of the store, when items are tried on they do go into a quarantined area for 48 hours and then they are sanitized and re-brought out to the floor. So there's quite a bit of stuff that goes on in here, but now that we've been open for a little bit more than a month we've been able to get that really dialed down. And the feedback from clients has been incredible.
What are your customers looking for in the way of products at this time of the year?
In the summertime it's a little bit more impulse buying. A lot of designer shoes. Cosmetics. Especially when they come here because it's so hot and dry and they will shop for face products and similar items. And then we actually sell quite a bit of jewelry in the summertime here, as well as our clients that we work with, we still continue to have a strong jewelry business.
Do you notice when people come into your store, they are drawn by the setting at the Gardens on El Paseo?
I would definitely think so. I think when tourists come here they know El Paseo and they know what's here.
When they're walking up and down they definitely are excited to see a Saks Fifth Avenue here. I don't think they expect that sometimes. There's only 40 Saks Fifth Avenue stores in the entire country, so to have one right here in the desert is a big plus for a tourist. And it's a big win for us too, because they don't always know that we're here.
What are maybe some of the advantages that you offer shoppers?
Because we do have our Saks First Rewards credit cards, that's all they use in our store and it's such a great initiative to shop here. We would call it our VIP program here, and customers receive points, gift cards, and bigger discounts on certain things. And then also the staff that we have here, we have people from all over the country who have worked everywhere, whether it's New York or San Francisco or in Europe. They bring such a wealth of knowledge, not just with fashion, but with giving that world-class, old-school service that we're known for and clients love that. So they get good one-on-one attention from some amazing sales people in this building.
People like that personal touch.
And at the price points of our items and designer items, clients still want to come in and get that feel of luxury and try things on and get that experience in the store. It's a little more difficult to buy some of the luxury items that we sell online.
It sounds like a combination of small-town appeal in a big store.
Yes, and that's the great thing about Saks. Anything in the world that clients need product-wise, we have an avenue of getting that for them. No matter the vendor, even if we don't carry it in the store, we have the Saks name behind us that allows us to open up and virtually sell a little bit different than a store that may just focus on one particular brand.
For more information about The Gardens on El Paseo and other El Paseo merchants, visit elpaseocaatalogue.com for a directory of open stores and restaurants.
For more information on Saks Fifth Avenue in Palm Desert, visit saksfifthavenue.com.
Ride 'Em Cowboy
el paseo palm desertPalm DesertSaks Fifth Avenue


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Fast forward 40 years later and some might argue that these lyrics still resonate as the word "Cloud" has now moved from catchy song lyrics to must-have tech solutions. For some small and medium-size businesses (SMBs), the term "Cloud" may be confusing, especially as they try to understand how to best use it to support their most critical business needs – and the Clouds aren't clearing out anytime soon.
Consider that Apple, Amazon and Google make Cloud a main-stream concept and analysts predict that cloud-based services will be the largest innovation in IT for 2013. In 2012, 48% of SMBs use cloud services and that trend will continue to grow in 2013.
That being said, the term "Cloud" refers to many aspects of IT to include storage, software as a service (SaaS), UCaaS, CaaS, cloud computing, telephony and aspects of the BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) trend. And, how do terms such as "hosted", "virtualization" "private" and "public" and other concepts correlate to the term Cloud?
Let's consider a few descriptors to the term "cloud", as they apply to a cloud telephony or a hosted PBX solution, and then I'll show you how to find them in Digium's new Switchvox Cloud offering.
On-demand services – Customers can easily turn up the service and make changes to the service automatically.
Broad network access and elasticity – The technology can expand and be accessed from any location and any web-enabled device.
Maintenance-free solution –Customers can easily handle moves, adds and changes remotely and eliminate the need for on-site maintenance or installation support. Cloud technologies are designed for ease-of-use and agile environments.
Public or private deployments – Services can be provided in a shared, multi-tenant environment or in a separated or private instance. Redundancy, QoS, security and availability all influence the application for each deployment.
Measurable Service – All phone calls and data transmission occurs over an off-site network. Bandwidth and network assessments and service guarantees are essential as every phone call transverses a public, shared connection.
Switchvox Cloud is a full UC solution in a hosted environment. It is available in the lower 48 states today allowing users to have all of the features of Switchvox with the benefits of the Cloud.
Join me by registering now. And, be sure to show up early… someone just might sing, hum, or whistle a few bars of that old Joni Mitchell classic.


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Greater PNW Pride: What CNN's Anderson Cooper Might Teach Us About Being Church
What CNN's Anderson Cooper as "Dad" Might Teach Us About Being Church
There is no other comparable experience like becoming a parent. It is simply overwhelming. Being present at the birth of my children, holding their mom's hand, breathing with her through her contractions, being in the birthing room, cutting the umbilical cord of both children, and then holding them in my arms as their mom was taken away to be cleaned up, is seared into my memory. While their mom had nine months to prepare for the moment of a child in our lives, for the dad, it comes all at once, with an uncontrollable rush of strong, fleeting moments and emotions, a crowd of people bringing forth the child from their mom's body, and then the quiet after the flood of thoughts and feelings, and the surging movement of love and connection when each child in my arms. First moves: I remember singing to the infant in my arm, saying a prayer of thankfulness and "what now?" while touching their hands, their feet, their face, simply giggling, and smiling, with a tear in an eye, all over what had just happened: a new life was now in this world. God's message of hope for the future was in my arms. Someone who had never been here before just made their presence known with both a cry (while my daughter cried briefly, my son looked like he had been interrupted from his still slumber and was not happy) and then silence as they both fell asleep in my arms.
CNN's Anderson Cooper became a dad a few weeks ago! And, like me, because he is gay, he is a gay dad, too. Welcome to the tribe, Anderson! As he said on CNN: "I am a dad. I have a son." His name is Wyatt Morgan Cooper. Cooper said, "As a gay kid, I never thought it would be possible to have a child, and I'm grateful for all those who have paved the way, and for the doctors and nurses and everyone involved in my son's birth… Most of all, I am grateful to a remarkable surrogate who carried Wyatt, and watched over him lovingly, and tenderly, and gave birth to him. It is an extraordinary blessing—what she, and all surrogates give to families who can't have children… My family is blessed to have this family in our lives."
Of course, because Anderson Cooper is a public personality, his story is free for any person in the world to comment about. And Michael Brown of Christian-based Charisma News, felt the need to squash Anderson Cooper's joy: "When I saw the announcement of his birth, I felt sadness more than happiness. Sadness for him and for you… Anderson, a boy deserves his mother, yet if I understand your plan correctly, your son will not be raised together by her and by you. That's what saddens me the most. Can you imagine what your life would look like today without the influence of your mother? Can you imagine Anderson Cooper without Gloria Vanderbilt? Who would you be without your mom?" Anderson Cooper's father died when Anderson was 10 year's old, but Michael Brown doesn't care about men raising children. And he didn't chastise Gloria for not remarrying and providing young Anderson a dad-figure.
Then the conservative, religious right mandate comes out, since marriage is between "one man and one woman." "That's because biology is very stubborn, and the way God created us, every human being has a mother and a father and is meant to be nurtured by both. Two men, no matter how much they love each other, cannot produce a child. It's the same with two women… But this is not simply a matter of biology. It's a matter of complementarity. The mother and the father each bring something unique and special more unique than the difference between two dads or two moms. That's because male plus male or female plus female can never equal male plus female.
Sadly, what Mr. Brown doesn't appreciate is that, first, it takes a village to raise any child (to quote an African proverb, in which it also takes a child to raise any village). Second, and all kidding aside, what Mr. Brown doesn't appreciate is the place and presence of a church in a child's or family's life, and the sacred meaningfulness and "call to action" of our baptism. For it is in our baptism, not in the individual family unit, that the network of incredible relationships—both holy and mundane—are celebrated, affirmed, and called to action in supporting everyone in raising a child and whatever family or guardians come with a child. In our baptism, we are publicly welcomed into the body of Christ, which is an incredible household of people, to say the least.
In the United Methodist Church, in the Baptismal Covenant, these words may be said by the congregation at the conclusion of the child's baptism: "Now, it is our joy to welcome our new sisters and brothers in Christ," says the pastor. And the congregations responds: "Through baptism you are incorporated by the Holy Spirit into God's new creation and made to share in Christ's royal priesthood. We are all one in Christ Jesus. With joy and thanksgiving we welcome you as members of the family of Christ" (my emphasis).
"With joy and thanksgiving we welcome you as members of the family of Christ."
Each and every infant, child, young person, and adult who has been baptized into the faith instantly becomes part of a large household of faith, with plenty of moms, dads, significant guardians, which, in some cases, may be even have a stronger influence than our biological or adopted parents.
For the time being, Anderson Cooper has chosen to raise young Wyatt with his former boyfriend, Benjamin Maisani. "I don't really have a family, and so my friends become my family (my emphasis)," said Anderson. He continued: "When I was a little kid it was just my mom and my brother. She was not the most parental person and I wish some adult after my dad died had stepped in and just been like, 'You know what, I'll take you to a ball game,' Or, 'Let's go out to lunch every now and then and let's just talk.' You know, like, no one ever did that and so I thought, well if something happens to me or even if something doesn't happen to me, if more people love my son and are in his life, I'm all for that. My ex is a great guy and I think it's good to have two parents, if you can," said Anderson.
"My friends become my family" is a refrain I hear often in the LGBTQ+ community, as many of my friends, including me, have chosen close friends to be my "family," along with my fiancé. We are now "Pops and Opa" to my granddaughter. Sadly, and wrongly, many LGBTQ+ people were rejected and disowned by their biological and adoptive families. The faith communities in which my LGBTQ+ friends were involved with rejected them as well. And there is a long history of churches refusing many LGBTQ+ parents the opportunity to baptize their child. In response, many LGBTQ+ parents simply choose friends to be family in raising their children. It will take generations for many LGBTQ+ people to trust the Church again.
With a grateful heart, in raising my children, I can say they were surrounded in love by their mom, dad, and my former partner. Baptized as infants and nurtured in the Christian faith in local communities of Christian faith (I've pastored 10 churches, so lots of communities), they were also loved, adored, and even lovingly disciplined, by many loving church communities. And there were a lot of moms, dads, and grandparents in these churches who loved my children unconditionally, and still do, even to this day.
So, Dear Anderson: I hope that someday, along with Wyatt and Benjamin, you will all find a faith community that will also provide a network of relationships of love and support, as part of the body of Christ.
And Anderson: welcome to the tribe of gay parents. Enjoy each and every day this gift in your life, Wyatt Morgan Cooper.
Just let me know if and when you are looking for a church in raising Wyatt and supporting you and Benjamin as parents.
Brett Webb-Mitchell
Rev. Dr. Brett Webb-Mitchell is an openly gay Presbyterian pastor in the Portland area serving as the part-time LGBTQ+ advocacy coordinator for The Oregon-Idaho Conference of the UMC. He can be reached at brett@umoi.org. Become a subscriber to the Greater NW Pride blog to get Greater NW Pride in your email box!
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