text:
All of Britain covered by snow
snowfall Weather
No it's not a time warp photo of Dicken's time, it's from the NASA MODIS satellite imager this week. This is like one of those "spot the cow in this photo" images, looking for the UK in a sea of white.
click to enlarge - the outline of the UK is clearly visible right of center - image: NASA
It must be having quite an impact in the UK. According to UK resident and WUWT commenter "borderer":
Every single newspaper in the UK has published the following satellite image of the UK today – it shows the entire country in glowing white – snow and ice now appears the entire British Isles from John O' Groats at the Northern tip of Scotland – to Landsend in Cornwall.
Despite this – and we are now in our 25th day of sub zero temperatures – the MET Office put up a spokesman on Newsnight last evening claiming that their forecast for a 'very mild winter' had 'only been a probability!!
In other news, the Met Head gets paid extra even for botched forecasting. Remember the "BBQ summer" forecast?
"Mr. Hirst, you predicted a barbeque summer for 2009 – we don't remember that – and a mild winter for this winter, which hasn't happened. Why did you get a massive performance related bonus?"
h/t to Kate at SDA
Climategate: Here Comes Courage!
High fire danger in South Australia as temperatures soar
Oliver K. Manuel
Would Al Gore and the MET Office be willing to take questions now?
Barry Foster
Can anyone else see Michael Jackson's face in that photo, or is it just me?
Dr. Bob
On one hand I love how wrong the Met office was, on the other hand I feel so bad for the people in England. That must suck.
We've got more snow coming Sunday, and guess where is going to be hit hardest?
East Anglia…right where the CRU is! There IS a god.
Al Pipkin
… muor' please!
JohnH
BBC at lunchtime, UK and Europe is cold but Canda is warm so it all balances out. Doh
Quite a change in albedo. Now what did those warmers say about feedback??
D. Ch.
Where's Ireland?
Ian Innes
"cough" —- Scotsman here,
I can assure you we have some snow here to and minus 22 Celcius last night, It's just we deal with it better than them "doon south". And sure the Welsh have a dusting as well. As for Northern Ireland?
Perhaps UK covered or Britain covered?
Excellent site btw keep up the good work
Michael S
Incredible. Might want to change the headline to "All of Britain" to emphasize that Wales is covered as well.
REPLY: Good suggestion, done. -A
Borderer
Actually it is not merely 'England' which is buried in snow and ice; it is England, Scotland and Wales – separate kingdoms -each with its own devolved parliament – but collectively known as the 'United Kingdom' – or UK. Not being pedantic but the Scots and the Welsh get very pissed off when Americans refer to the UK as 'England'.
See that top bit – that's called Scotland
See that bit 3/4 of the way down to the West – that's called Wales
Richard Sharpe
I guess that there is only a probability that the Met Office is worth all that money that the UK spends on them, then.
Yertizz
On the BBC TV news last night, the Ever-More-Idiotic David Shukman trotted out the well-reheased, 'Weather and climate are not the same thing' mantra to justify that one severe winter does not change the facts about climate change (Warming!)
Yet how often in the past has he siezed on a one-off weather event (hotter-than-usual-summer or heavy rainfall creating flash floods) to 'prove' man-made climate change?
If only he realised how stupid he appears he would chuck it all in and take up something useful like needlework.
Peter Whale
I think that the MET office are probably warmist propagandists. But then I don't have a billion pound computer/ budget running duff models to do my thinking for me so I could probably be much more accurate about them than they are about the weather/climate. The sad thing is they are paid out of my taxes.
Yes, I watched Newsnight last night, particularly the debate between apologist A and apologist-apologist B (I can't remember their names), with Jeremy Vine asking the questions. Much of the discussion centred on use of probabilities in weather forecasting. Vine asked an important question however, with respect to how confident we could be in the very long term climate models, given the abject failure of the short and medium term models. The apologist and the apologist-apologist pointed out that the models were "validated", so there was nothing to worry about. We can have much more confidence in them than in "forecast" models, such as those used to predict the weather a few months in advance.
HAHA (sorry for the demented laughter),
I wrote a letter of complaint to the BBC about article bias, as they didn't front anyone to explain how useless the models are in general, including the very long term models, when it is obvious to all but the most stupid cretin that these people do nothing other than spout crap. I also pointed out that the models are calibrated to past temperatures not "validated". Calibration is, in essence, an excersise in curve fitting.
Alan the Brit
Damned ^&*%$ and F£!$%*%$ every last one of them, & those are just the polite words you can use in front of your Great Aunt! At least Andrew Neil of the Politics Show is starting to do his homework with his figures & roasting the Head of the Met Office, who kept droning on & on about how recognised the Met Office is around the world for its leading ability to make accurate short-term weather forecasts, but of course sidesteps the issue about Climate Change forecasting by claiming it is a different area (& an infant one at that) of science. I for one would like to know just who are the independent sources who have verified this amazing claim! The IPCC & the WMO I suspect.
DirkH
So the glaciers in the UK are not yet melting?
Sheumais
Amy chance you could change your headline to reflect both the photograph and the article? It's not just England.
JonesII
It looks like a kind of a new "Greenland". Are the members of the Catlin expedition down there?
Ed Zuiderwijk
O s..t, the next ice age has started without us noticing it. Today must be the day after tomorrow.
BTW, just refer to us as the British Isles as that way you cover everybody as even Ireland is in that part.
Thanks for changing the headline.
Each with its own devolved parliament, Borderer? I think not. Scotland and Wales, yes……England, No!
South of the border we are lumbered with a cabal of incompetent Scots led by Gormless Brow.
Still, not for much longer!
There is a good article with this photo describing the appalling state of the weather in the UK – here:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1241060/Severe-weather-warning-Snowstorms-cost-economy-14-5bn-millions-stay-home-did-make-work-face-nightmare-journey.html
Here in the Scottish Borders we are suffering our 27th day when the temperature has rarely risen above zero and this is our 23rd day of continuous snow cover. Many main roads have been closed and side roads are only passable by 4WD or tractor. Cattle and sheep are in grave danger as it is now very difficult for farmers to reach hill flocks – and with 4 feet of snow on the hills they cannot feed themselves.
"Britain is facing the coldest night of the winter so far tonight as the death toll from the freezing weather continues to rise.
Temperatures are expected to drop to lower than -20C in the Scottish Highlands tonight, following lows of -17.7C in Benson, Oxfordshire and -15C in Manchester overnight – the same temperatures found in domestic freezers.
Meteogroup forecaster Andy Ratcliffe said the Scottish Highlands will be worst hit by tonight's icy blast.
He said: 'It Scotland it could be the coldest night of the winter for Britain, with temperatures as low as the minus 20s in the Highlands.
'Snow showers will creep in to parts of East Anglia, Kent and Scotland again overnight and tomorrow.
'There will also be a windchill factor going into the weekend making many areas, even in daytime, feel like minus 7C.'
Roads, trains and airports were also subjected to another day of havoc.
Huge queues formed at Eurostar terminals after a train broke down inside the Channel Tunnel for two hours earlier today. It comes just weeks after thousands of passengers were stranded after a number of trains broke down before Christmas.
Nearly all train companies reported disrupted services, with commuters suffering from both a reduction in frequency on routes and problems caused by broken-down trains. Southeastern trains cancelled several services in Kent, while snow chains were fitted to buses on major routes in Brighton.
By 12.30pm today, the Automobile Association had attended around 11,000 breakdowns since midnight. British Airways axed flights at Gatwick and Heathrow and EasyJet cancelled around 70 flights at Gatwick."
P Wilson
'very mild winter' had 'only been a probability!!
Thats reassuring. The whole AGW is based on probability.
Dr. Bob (08:07:15) :
Yes, we're enjoying this phase of global warming. At the moment it is whiter than Greenland here in the UK
At -21c UK is as cold as the South Pole: Biggest freeze for 30 years wreaks havoc (and there are 10 more days to come)
By Beth Hale
Last updated at 9:53 AM on 08th January 2010
* Comments (888)
* Add to My Stories
Deep freeze Britain was as cold as the South Pole as temperatures plummeted to a staggering minus 21c.
Amid increasing fears of an energy crisis, the country is locked in the biggest chill for nearly 30 years.
The mercury sank to minus 21.2C (minus 6.2F) in parts of the Scottish Highlands – considerably colder than some home freezers – with bitterly cold temperatures everywhere else on another day of widespread weather disruption
Joe Bastardi predicted this. He is now being denigrated and flogged for this over at Climate Progress. They hate Joe.. Not just the snow. it is the frigid air that came along.
Just drink the koolaid and feel the warmth.
.001 chance is still just a "probability"
That's the consequence of a negative feedback from anthropogenic CO2, as models have shown, so it is the final proof of Global Warming as preached by the illuminated (not by electricity-just in case-) most revered Saint "Al Baby" Gore; be praised in his glory!
Richard Tyndall
Dr Bob,
don't feel sorry for us. Anyone with any sense has made sure they are prepared for this and to be honest those who weren't only have themselves to blame.
Actually it is no where near as bad as the media like to make out. Remember for them everything has to be a disaster. Yes it is inconveniencing people and shutting a lot of schools etc, but people are generally just giving themselves more time to get about, helping each other and being a bit more resourceful than usual.
And of course it make sthe Met Office look very very stupid which is always a bonus.
It is likely to last at least another 10 days and I for one am loving it. Mind you I work much of my time in Norway so perhaps I am not the best person to reflect on this 🙂
Douglas DC
Nice day here in NE Oregon, we haven't had our real winter-yet. Local
warmists are screaming EL NINO!Hansen!Algore!-they are riiight!Ok.
Wait.This is a 1960's/70's pattern. I have lived this.That said I am very sorry
that the United Kingdom has to put up with this.I Hope the politicians there learn from this.I don't have much hope for the USA-until the election…
Retired Dave
I know you Borderer's don't think your Scots or English, but Scotland and Wales might have their own devolved parliament, but us English don't. Only being picky mate, and a little tetchy perhaps!!.
For non-Brits on here.
Great Britain is Scotland, Wales and England
United Kingdom is the same, but adds in Northern Ireland as well.
Which is why a UK passport says Great Britain and Northern Ireland on the front.
On topic – What a fantastic image!!!!! You can still see why Ireland is called the Emerald Isle though, or perhaps they are still getting Global Warming??
Mike D.
Nothing to see here, move along. Warmer is cooler, white is black, up is down.
Obviously, the current spell of extreme CAGW warm-cool is a denialist plot. I blame the Republicans. If only we had more windmills. BTW, the predicted cannibalism should be getting underway soon. Pass the Worchestershire sauce.
More of the Gore , Obama puppet show.
I think it may be Al's hand effecting the flapping of Obama's mouth and ear's.
http://news.yahoo.com/video/politics-15749652/17501378
Will that photograph be presented as a proof in the prosecution against those implicated in the "Climate-Gate" conspiracy?
I think part of the reason we are not prepared for this, with adequate numbers of snow ploughs and supplies of grit and salt, is that local councils like everyone else, have been fooled into thinking there would be no more snow in British winters. Certainly in the south of England. I'm now on my third day of working from home this year, have cancelled flights to Dublin for next week, and have sent husband down to the supermarket to do battle for a loaf of bread (I've been on conference calls all afternoon). I am sort of worried that this might be the reversal-in-direction-of-the-gulf-stream thing that warmists have warmed us about, as northern Canada seems to be getting our milder weather. Should I be worried?
wsbriggs
Make it a ton of snow (metric ton) for East Anglia! All Hail Discordia!
niphredilflower
I live in England and I am now quite fed up and tired of all this compulsary sledging (its usually a given that you have to sledge for the few hours of yearly snow) but its been three days now and as I'm unemployed, I'm legally bound to continue sledging for as long as it remains… this is truly unheard of conditions.
Saw a piece on BBC World (cable TV) the other day that did the usual 'global warming is still happening' routine. I'd cancel my sub to this channel, but it is marginally better than CNN for non-weather related news.
Looking closely at the sat photo, it's interesting to see that while the Isle of Man is covered in snow, Ireland seems to be clear. You can also see the major urban centres as light grey areas. Really cool.
I wish we had some of that snow here in the NW coast. Our winter has been fairly typical. Wet.
Yesterday it was -31 C here in Norway.
Thats the point where we from the northern part put on the T-shirt.
Not sure whether this has been mentioned before here at WUWT, but the NYT has been busy declaring a melting Arctic;
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/12/new_york_times_128_years_of_lo.html
Interesting also that on that picture you can see grey splodges where the cities are. At least I've told myself I can see Manchester, Stoke, Birmingham, Liverpool / Wirral, Leeds / Bradford and Aberdeen picked out from the overall whiteness.
Freezing is the NEW warm.
The Met office relationship with the BBC can be summed up in the slogan, " We decide, you report."
In their desperation to avoid any undermining of the theory of CAGW, the BBC's David Shukman (a so-called Environment Correspondent) has kindly reminded us that this is all weather not climate although he seems to forget that distinction when reporting about other weather events. Heather the Weather (Scots will know who I mean) told us at the end of the summer that the weather we'd had in Scotland was just what we would expect from global warming. Wonder what she would say about the winter if she was still working for BBC Scotland. Everything short-term which can be twisted to support global warming is twisted and anything else is just "weather".
Nice to see all the comments pointing out the difference between Britain/UK and England. But how many times do we have to keep pointing this out before it gets taken on board?
P****d off, indeed!
Obama, President of Rhode Island, anybody? (Bet a lot of people wish that that was, in fact, all he was. But maybe that's unfair to Rhode Island – or did they vote for him?)
K. Bray
I see "Puff the Magic Dragon" talking to "Winnie the Poo" with a bow tie on his head. All imaginary… just like AGW.
Wow, is that a tough interview given to a man who has no points on his side whatsoever.
Re JohnH & BBC
Actually much of the Canadian prairies have been well below seasonal for quite a while. Here in Edmonton we've had well below average temps for 19 of the last 20 days according to the weatherman on last nights CTV news. Good news is that we're reverting from "weather" back to "climate change" with a warming trend in the forecast 🙂
Re; Veronica
Good views of urban heat islands ??
Robmcn
So that's 840 miles of continuous snow driving from John o'Groats to Land's End or close on 95,000 square miles of ice and snow.
Here in Edinburgh, we had snow again last night and I'm keeping a close eye on one of the Met's official weather stations at the Royal Botanic Gardens. In their "Curiosities" section (http://www.rbge.org.uk/assets/files/science/Weather/Inverleith%20curiosities.pdf) they state that the longest snow cover is 21 days in January 1984. Living about half a mile from the place, we've had snow on the ground since December 17th – that's day 23 now. I wonder if they'll update it? Also – deepest snow cover 5cm? I've got about 5 inches still in my garden.
Fortunately, the Met office are giving us a good explanation of what's going on:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20100106b.html
Note the inclusion of the areas that are warmer than normal for the time of year:
"……However, it is not cold everywhere in the world. North-east America, Canada, North Africa, the Mediterranean, and south-west Asia have all seen temperatures above normal – in many places by more than 5 °C, and in parts of northern Canada, by more than 10 °C."
Then note how cold weather "doesn't tell us anything about climate change". Er, an observation that surely applies to warm weather too then:
"…..Climate change is taking place as the earth continues to warm up. In the UK, 2009 as a whole was the 14th-warmest on record (since 1914). This above-average temperature trend was reflected globally, with 2009 being the fifth-warmest year on the global record (since 1850). The current cold weather in the UK is part of the normal regional variations that take place in the winter season. It doesn't tell us anything about climate change, which has to be looked at in a global context and over longer periods of time."
Steve Goddard
It is very clear that the BBC man has been reading WUWT and has taken it to heart.
niphredilflower (08:34:20) : Just pray to Al Gore, and put in your prayers all the strength of hidden emotions toward him, tell HIM next time you will behave in a better and good way, not commiting carbon dark sins anymore against Mother Gaia.
What you see surrounding you it is not snow but an induced mirage caused by you evil denial thoughts. That is the consequence of reading such forbidden blogs as WUWT. Repent now! and you will see the open fields free rom ice and Saint Gore, your saviour, descending from unclouded and sunny skies.
Tim Groves
What's the big deal? It's only rotten snow!
Wizard Tim
In England, we now find the councils running out of salt to clear the roads, they didn't have very high stocks. Why not? Well, for the 2nd year in a row, the wonderful Met Office told them to expect a mild winter. Expect a vicious backlash to the warmistas in public opinion, once people can get out and about again.
If this carries on, we'll all have to gear up for winter with chains, snow tyres, generators etc, like last time we had winter like this. 1963 I recall. Thank heavens for the "warming" since!
Now off to play in some 6″ of AGW and build me an igloo.
wsbriggs (08:32:26) :
It's hard not to notice fate's fickle finger giving them the bird.
Yarmy
What's nice about the picture is that you can see the large cities (Manchester, Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff) clearly as urban heat islands. London too, though it's partially obscured by cloud.
Great Britain is the official name given to the two kingdoms of England and Scotland, and the principality of Wales
As a New Zealander living in London, I am constantly amazed at the Brits inability or unwillingness to plan for the eventuality of snow and ice on the roads, ie dual purpose tyres, tyre chains, a tow-rope, jumper leads, basic tools and some warm clothing and perhaps a sleeping bag kept in the car. In the bits of NZ where the weather can turn very hot or very cold quite quickly and fewer people around to help if one gets into trouble, one learns to prepare.
I was interested to read this morning that the Ministry of Defence has just cancelled 25% of the Met Office's budget without comment. The country is in deep financial mire and the Met.s incorrect guesses are incredibly expensive and way less accurate than non-government forecasters.
Currently, the BBC frontpersons prattle on with each news bulletin about the UK now being 'cooler than the South Pole' – none of the numpties has acknowledged that its midsummer in Antarctica and midwinter here – talk about comparing apples with oranges!
\and the drivel about 'this is only weather, not climate' is also fairly constant – they will have to cease treating the general public as simpletons soon, I hope!
KeithGuy
"the MET Office put up a spokesman on Newsnight last evening claiming that their forecast for a 'very mild winter' had 'only been a probability!!"
As I remember the MET Office set the probability for a cold winter this year at 1 to 7.
Maybe they put a few thousand quid on it and intend using their winnings to pay for Mr Hirst's bonus. In fact if they had bet against all of their own recent predictions they could have made a killing.
John F. Hultquist
Veronica (08:31:33) : You wrote: "…the reversal-in-direction-of-the-gulf-stream thing … Should I be worried? … "
I've not actually seen this 'warmist' comment before and would like to know how this is supposed to work. I am not worried about it – just curious.
"The principle is that as the climate reaches infinite improbability, the weather passes simultaneously through every conceivable and inconceivable condition in every conceivable and inconceivable locale." — Handbook of Man Made Climate Change
That is a genuinely superb interview in which Andrew Neill gives the Head of the UK MET Office a severe 'handbagging' (battered around the head with a large handbag).
However, the guy sits there like a STASI Apparatchik, smiling through it all because – although they have got 6 long term forecasts out of 6 WRONG – he STILL gets paid more than the Prime Minister – and even after forecasting a 'very mild winter' when in fact we have 25 days of freezing hell – he gets a 'performance bonus'.
The message is: "if you are not one of us – you are always wrong' But if you are one of us, you are RIGHT – even when you are WRONG"
Bruce Cobb
Looks like another "very rare and exciting event" is occurring. The MET should invest in a dart board. It would increase their odds significantly.
James Chamberlain
I posted this elsewhere, but want to again here. The biggest standout point in the interview for me, I'm paraphrasing:
"We don't just get performance bonuses for our forecasting, etc., but also for our business plans and models." AKA, the more that the met office takes tax payer funds, private funds, etc. the bigger his bonus. Forget about forecasts, it's about bringing in the dough!
Craig Moore
I suppose sledding has replaced golf at Swinley Forest.
MattN
As cold as it is, I am perplexed by the AMSU daily readings. So far in January, they are at record high levels. If it's this cold here in the NH, it must be really hot in the SH…..
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/
Stephen Skinner
'Wildlife in crisis' in frozen UK
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8449089.stm
Britain's wildlife is being pushed to "the brink of a crisis" as sub-zero temperatures continue to grip the nation, according to conservationists.
The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) is organising emergency feeding of several threatened species, including bitterns and cirl buntings.
Ruth Davis, head of climate change policy at the RSPB, said the charity was promoting the development of wind power because the evidence of the increasing impact of global warming on birds was "truly terrifying".
"Left unchecked, climate change threatens many species with extinction.
"Yet that sense of urgency is not translating into actions on the ground to harness the abundant wind energy around us."
She said the solutions were largely common sense, including a clear lead from government on where wind farms were built and clear guidance for councils on how to deal with applications.
RSPB warning as wind turbines kill sea eagles
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/rspb-warning-as-wind-turbines-kill-sea-eagles-524866.html
Sea eagles, among Europe's most magnificent birds, are being killed by the turbines of a Norwegian wind farm, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds said.
Methow Ken
Good link to the DailyMail article by Borderer @ 08:23; great photos.
My sympathies to the good citizens of the UK, who are currently struggling with a pretty fair approximation of Maunder Minimum weather (at least in the short run), even if the Thames hasn't frozen over (yet).
. . . Although have to admit when I see "At -21c UK is as cold as the South Pole: Biggest freeze for 30 years", I have to indulge in a bit of a wry smile:
Still-air temp here in northern ND this morning was 33 degrees below zero F = minus 36 C; a little chilly even for here, but not at all out of the ordinary for January weather: Pretty much the only thing between us and the North Pole is a barbed-wire fence. . . .
It's a really beautiful image. It looks almost exactly like in an ice age – showing that for the eyes (and the albedo), it doesn't really matter whether there is 1 centimeter or 1 kilometer of snow. 😉
Do you have a trick to distinguish the clouds from the snow? Is Northern Ireland covered by snow?
Unfortunately, it will take more than one unseasonably cold winter in the UK to derail the massive policy changes taking effect there. I feel for the average person over there who is just trying to stay warm.
Apologies if this has already been posted, but just come accross this:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1241209/BBC-probes-bias-science-coverage.html
Good to see so many fellow Scots pointing out the obvious. The satellite image is amazing, but there is one place in Scotlandn which has escaped the snows – Tiree – which due to its Atalntic location very rarely gets frosts or snow.
Veronica, I have friends in the Wirral and they are having to slide to work as they are demanded in and it is lethal. One has fallen twice already and he is in his 20s! Meanwhile in Leeds the river and canal have both frozen for the first time in decades and we have had snowcover since mid-December – it usually lasts for two days at most.
This spell is exceptional – http://www.climate-uk.com to see just how exceptional. People are just about struggling through and getting enoug to eat.
I dread to think of the stories we will hear when this all thaws – probably scores died trapped in buried cars and houses due to the deadly amount of snowfall.
But global warming goes on of course!
not sure whether the image shows it but according to all the news reports N.Ireland has been hit pretty hard as well.
Someone said that Canada was having a warmer winter so "everything balances out". This is nonsense. We are having one of the coldest winters in 25 years.
In fact, where I live in Edmonton, Alberta, we were the second coldest inhabited place on Earth but a few weeks ago at -46.1 C! Of course, there were a lot of people with unofficial thermometers in their back yards well outside the city recording temperatures below -50 C.
http://www.edmontonsun.com/news/edmonton/2009/12/13/12141366.html
As for this morning, my thermometer read -20 C.
Botec
The people in the Mull of Galloway must feel either extremely favoured or extremely disappointed. I'm not there, but I'm in one of the other very few spots to have no new snow since the fall a few days before Christmas).
kadaka
Do you see the head of the dog? It has floppy ears, below you can see short front legs, as it is pouncing on Scotland. Amazing!
How did Scotland get away with less snow? Did the Scots sell it to the Brits, telling them the cold would mitigate the global warming damage?
Dodgy Geezer
The answer is:
a) it's just weather
b) well, I'm not a qualified meterologist, so I can't comment
c) you will find there is a distinct rising temperature trend if you take measurements from 01:00 am and then 13:30pm….
d) La-La-La-La (puts fingers in ears)…
"Veronica (08:31:33) :
I am sort of worried that this might be the reversal-in-direction-of-the-gulf-stream thing that warmists have warmed us about, as northern Canada seems to be getting our milder weather. Should I be worried?"
I think this recent weather may have more to do with the current direction of the jet stream not the gulf stream. This link might help to explain.
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/jetstream.asp
Not Scotland, I meant Ireland!
Dang cats, swarming around because they're restless and don't want to go out in the fresh global warming… I'm trying to do stuff here! Shoo!
Pamela Gray
Douglas, I thought you would like this. The water equivalent measures for NE Oregon are great. And continue to trend greater every year. The ski basin snotel depth data at the end of the report for recreation purposes are different but who cares. In NE Oregon we could not give less attention to skiing than we do now. What we want to know is whether or not the snow we have has water in it. This kind of snow builds glaciers by the way. So much for being warmer with drought coming our way.
ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/climate/basin_reports/oregon/wy2010/bapror12.txt
It would appear that most of our weather we get from someone else and is mostly airborne. Winds from the East during the winter months will bring us cold weather regardless of the gulf stream. And as for how the gulf stream is doing; this image appears to show open water all the way to the Russian Coast, which would indicate that the gulf stream is still pushing warm water up into the Arctic:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png
Lucy Skywalker
I was checking out John Daly's reference to the Telegraph re sunspots in 2003 or so, linking sunspots to heat. But he'd forgotten to make the URL date-specific.
Instead of reaching a HEAT page, I reached this magnificent SNOW picture. Beautiful timing.
I was quite hot this summer actually… but then I live in Gravesend, which is the hottest place in the Uk… (when I say hot, I mean by British standards btw haha) On the other hand, and this has been riling me a bit:
Just because we're having a mini ice age, doesn't mean we should forget about the environment impact of our actions. The temperature of the Earth will naturally fluctuate, but the POINT is we shouldn't make these changes worse, which is what will happen. It's just that people have been so badly affected by it this year, especially the Eurostar travellers this year…
Jen.
I don't know why you are surprised.
Britain usually has a very mild climate – no single type of weather for very long. Under those circumstances it makes no sense to prepare for extremes – you would be continually preparing for a very unlikely possibility, and wasting a lot of time, money, space in your car, etc…
If our climate was like New Zealand, we would be preparing…
M. Simon
Barry Foster (08:06:56) :
I see Jesus in the photo. Funny thing is I'm Jewish.
RDay
Enjoy it. Snowfall is a very rare and exciting event.
Can someone explain to me what sledging is? Or it it the same thing as sledding?
R Stevenson
People in the US just don't realise what we are up against here in England with the Met Office on the one hand, CRU at East Anglia on the other happily promoting the bogus science of anthroprogenic global warming. All of the political parties and the scientific establishment are at one in this regard ousing sickening mutual admiration.
For umpteen years now the scientists have been instructed by the politicians to spin the raw data to show ludicrous hockeystick type catastrophic temperature rise. In fact the fraudsters at CRU recieve only messages of sympathy for having had their emails hacked into by the beastly sceptics; after all the serious business of cooking the books is very time consuming and should not be subject to any distraction.
Viv Evans
It looks so nice and white because where its not snow, its ice – compacted snow.
And it looks so nice and white because the roads – except the main ones – are not being cleared.
As for the UHI – living in one of them, I can tell you its only marginally warmer – and the roads are not cleared either. Nor are the pavements. The reason for that is that any hose owner who clears the pavement in front of his/her property is liable to litigation, should someone fall. No clearing – no liability.
Thanks to the forecast for a warm winter, councils everywhere were advised to stock up gritting material for six days.
As my compatriots have been telling above – this has been getting on for a little bit longer than six days.
But hey, its only a 'natural variation in local weather' – somewhere else the globe is burning up, right?
Nigel S
Ashford (09:24:53)
Brogdale was hotter than Gravesend.
101.3 F on 10 August 2003.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/news/20072006news.shtml
I live in Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire, which is south west Wales. The middle pointy bit sticking out to the left. The only bit of Wales covered in cloud. Temperature at 6:00am this morning was -7C (19f). This afternoon, as it was bright and sunny, I went for a walk round the harbour and to my surprise it was frozen! The marina was a sheet of ice. Not very thick, but one very cold night and the sea surface froze. I hope we don't get a week of this.
During the Newsnight interview when challenged about not predicting the lack of global warming over the past ten years Mr Hirst stated:
"If you go back we predicted a leveling off of global temperatures"
Can anyone verify this prediction because I don't remember it?
Spot the coo is the correct Scottish term, local farmer has lost 30 sheep in the last 3 weeks despite feeding them.
I just received a message from East Anglia's CRU. The picture you used is incorrect. The correct picture, after Michael's trick (smart method) to hide the decline has been applied, looks like this:
http://www.mapsorama.com/maps/europe/uk/Satellite_Great_Britain-tm.jpg
Could you please, Anthony, publish errata? Thanks, Phil Jones et al. 😉
On the news in Norway today:
http://www.statoil.com/en/TechnologyInnovation/NewEnergy/RenewablePowerProduction/Offshore/SheringhamShoel/Downloads/Fact%20sheet.pdf
Grand Match off over safety fears …
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/tayside_and_central/8448669.stm
"An outdoor curling tournament has been called off because the emergency services said they could not guarantee players' safety.
The Grand Match, planned for the Lake of Menteith near Aberfoyle next week, would have been the first event of its kind for more than 30 years.
The last Grand Match also took place on the Lake of Menteith in 1979. The one before that was in 1963. "
Peter Hearnden
Amazing what a few days of cold weather does to all those people who have denied the reality of decades of warming. Cold weather equal climate change, warm weather equals deny it….
It's also amazing how cold it's been given the (supposed) UHI that sceptics say plaster the UK and warm it so much – ha ha!
East Anglia…right where the CRU is! There IS a god
But it will also fall, again, on those of us who do not work for CRU, have nothing to do with Uni of East Anglia, who are in no way related to Phil Jones (so far as I am aware!) and who consider the UK Met Office a sick joke.
That makes it a pretty vengeful god!
PaulH
Performance related bonuses for high level public servants are usually automatic and have nothing to do with performance.
Ed Murphy
http://wap.myfoxtampabay.com/w/main/story/8721610/
The waters in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coast have gotten so cold, sea turtles are washing ashore, paralyzed by cold they are not used to.
Veterinarians say they know the cold is to blame because the turtles don't have any exterior injuries or wounds that would typically cause them to wash ashore.
They are not the only Florida wildlife dazed by the dropping temperatures.
Manatees are huddling in huge numbers wherever they can find warm water, and there are reports of lizards freezing and dropping out of trees.
I don't see the ghost of MJ but I do see the Grinch…
manfredkintop
Cold is the new warm
Observed faulty models are the new truth
Denial is the the new consensus
Welcome to 2010.
Paul M. Parks
Snowfall used to be rare and exciting in Georgia. Now we actually have ponds frozen over. Taken about 20 miles northeast of Atlanta:
http://www.parkscomputing.com/images/IceInGeorgia.jpg
I'm a little sick of all this global warming, myself.
"spot the cows"?
Livestock being frozen to death in their thousands
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/news/Livestock-being-frozen-to-death.5961813.jp
"THOUSANDS of farm animals face being frozen to death as Scotland experiences its worst winter weather in almost 50 years, farmers have warned.
Some farmers have been unable, for up to eight days, to get vital supplies of supplementary feed to their livestock. They are also being hit by delays in suppliers reaching them along treacherous rural routes."
There are also local radio reports of barn roofs collapsing under the weight of snow.
Well that green thing to the west hiding under the cloud (Ireland) does not go up far enough to grab all the warmth from the Gulf Stream so on the west coast from the Mull of Galloway northwards there are bits of green.
Borderer (08:23:17) :
At -21c UK is as cold as the South Pole:
This is another example of misleading (at best), cherry-picked statistics.
At -21C UK IN MID WINTER is as cold as the South Pole IN MID SUMMER!!
Those warmers are really holding on to nothing…
Almost the whole Northern hemisphere is frozen solid yet they claim it is weather and natural variability… then to support their AGW view they point to the west coast and Alaska where we have slightly above average temperature (and not every day with that!!!). What is the area ratio between the west coast and all the area that colder than average?
So… it's weather where it's colder but climate where it is a little warmer. Science has no political agenda, usually!
Dodgy Geezer is correct. In the summer we can get some scorching days which has buckled rail lines and melted tarmac. Being right off the Atlantic we can also get strong winds. To be able to cope with anything would require massive investment, and wouldn't be economic when we get extremes just now and again. For the vast majority of the time we have mild weather.
Sean Peake
Come spring the AGWers (led by East Anglia Jones and the Temple of Doomers) will thaw out and cry—"See, it's melting. Told you so!"
Scouse Pete
I always reckoned the mention of Climate Change would sneek into the BBC reporting due to this cold spell. In the last few days they've certainly been injecting various reports from their Science correspondents explaining this is just "Weather". Odd though that just a few months they were quick to blame the "Weather" we had of the Cockermouth flooding event on "This is what we expect from Climate Change" – most odd and damned two-faced.
I currently have a complaint lodged with the Met Office over their press release of the 5th Jan:
http://www.meto.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20100106b.html
"What's causes the cold weather" – they just had to stick in the Climate Change card at the end.
I've asked them to reconcile this with their presss release from February:
http://www.meto.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20090225.html
…when they stated:
"Peter Stott, Climate Scientist at the Met Office, said: "Despite the cold winter this year, the trend to milder and wetter winters is expected to continue, with snow and frost becoming less of a feature in the future. The famously cold winter of 1962/63 is now expected to occur about once every 1,000 years or more, compared with approximately every 100 to 200 years before 1850.""
I've asked them how can this 1000 year event come round less than a year after they declared it is more or less impossible. I'm waiting for their answer.
I do believe the British Public will not fall for their disinformation anymore. Especially after the Meto are also now claiming they DID infact forecast this cold spell and indeed they KNEW the AO / NAO was going negative BEFORE the end of December, but even the BBC pointed out to them their website still showed the UK as being "Orange" Warm anomaly Dec-Feb!
The Spin Doctors are certainly in full swing at the moment. Fortunately this little episode will only strenghen the UK's sceptism, as when the Meto and BBC so obviously start telling little lies about what they think they said, it simply shows them as rather irrelevant and not to be trusted – in my opinion.
The British public are not stupid, and won't be scammed again and again.
kadaka (09:17:00) :
Yeah, a terrier too. I think it's actually going to land on Berwick which is just across the border.
False teeth in the North Sea anyone ??
Maybe this is what the Met Office should do. No increase in credibility, but it would sure as heck make them less dangerous.
Oldseadog
Kadaka,
We keep pointing out to you that Scots ARE Brits.
And to whoever said that we are governed by a Scot but not for much longer, remember that Tony Blair is a Scot.
What price a third Scot in a row for PM if A. Darling takes over?
( And apologies for going off thread.)
M. Simon. If you look really closely at the second picture you can see an idiot.
crosspatch
NCDC's numbers are in the database for December. 15th coldest ever in the continental US (CONUS).
Go here and select December in the "period" pull-down.
What is interesting is the continuing trend in CONUS temperatures. If your start year is 1999 and if you select "most recent 12-month period" (all the way at the bottom of the "period" list, might need to scroll it down) you see a cooling trend of -0.83 degF / decade. That is HUGE. That would translate to a trend of 8 degrees / century if it were to continue (which I hope it never does!).
It is going to take several more years for the warming bump of the last multi-decadal bump in temperatures to work through and for the trend lines to adjust. For example the trend of +0.11 degF / decade remains unchanged if you stop in 2009 or even 2006 even though temperatures for the past two years are below the trend line.
There is no need to argue about climate change, it is only a matter of just waiting….When weather stays too long it inevitably becomes climate.
Fresh Globular Warming sounds more like something you might get on your foot from someone's pet. Be careful out there in that "rotten" warming deposit, whatever it is ! (10 quid says it's just normal snow.)
It seems to me that Global Warming is looking like a Psychiatric Syndrome… "Global Mass Mesmerization" (GMM Syndrome). Thank God in the USA we will soon have cheap Universal Health Care Coverage coming along to help these delusional souls…. aahhh… What do you mean by "Not Covered"?
David Segesta
I thought the interviewer's questions and comments were as pointed as they could be without becoming ungentlemanly and calling the head of the MET office a crazy S.O.B.
I hope this cold weather will cause people to ask two questions:
1) Do these warmist scientists know what they're talking about?
2) What's so bad about warming?
AdderW
Ireland did get some as well, and more is to come…
irishtimes.com – Last Updated: Friday, January 8, 2010, 17:37
Minister orders all State schools to close next week
IRISH TIMES REPORTERS
"The State's 4,000 primary and secondary schools have been ordered to close for three days from next Monday because of the adverse weather."
order your salt now
rbateman
Pamela Gray (09:22:32) :
But, Pamela, NW Calif. is supposed to be in a horrible drought. We currently are 50% ahead of last year, and last year ended up as 'normal'. I'm dismayed to hear that you have accumulated all that drought snow, as it will only grow your glaciers with 'rotten ice'.
Greenland's Sea Ice is currently attempting to reach out and touch Iceland.
Great picture; but it still doesn't stop the BBC (Barmey Broadcasting Clots), on every news broadcast, wheeling out some pilchard from the met office to tell us, not to worry because global warming is still on. They also said that 2010 is going to be the hottest year ever and the last decade was the warmest ever, despite the plateau and subsequent decline. Does Hirst know what his people are telling us?;he told Andrew Neill they predicted this.
There are names for these people, but the little ones may be watching.
An email from Piers Corbyn saying the Met Office needs to be up for manslaughter.
From: Piers Corbyn
Date: Fri, Jan 8, 2010 at 12:29 AM
Subject: BBC covers for Met Office failure – LETTER to Gavin Esler BBC Newsnight presenter 7th Jan2010 = WA10News4 (PG+) {WeatherAction WA10No03 LINK warns of more snow deluges – How much colder would you like it, Minister?
To: WA10No4 BBC covers for Met Office failiure
Letter to Gavin Esler BBC Presenter Newsnight 7th Jan 2010
– Met Office & BBC accused of litany of lies on long range forecasting & climate change
– Reason for Met Office failed forecasts is fraudulaent (Climategate) data
– Collective manslaugter charges against University of East Anglia, Met Office and BBC called for.
Further to Newsnight tonight where the Met Office and BBC so called expert lied about the reality of long-range forecasting; and your questioning was woefully inadequate and ignorant – despite efforts.
You should know that the MET OFFICE & BBC are in denial on the reality of long range forecasting and on the falsity of so-called man-made Climate Change.
You might care to read this short pdf (link) and the detailed forecast in other e-mail, or available via http://www.weatheraction.com/member.asp
We at WeatherAction predicted this very cold weather SIX months ago using solar activity (nothing to do with CO2) and added extra detail weeks ahead. Our forecasts of EXTREME events are consistently 85% reliable.
There is no need for the UK and Europe to be unprepared and run out of salt. The consequent suffering and road deaths are a direct consequence of the Met Office and BBC failed science and litany of lies.
Would the BBC care to hear from us as to why the Met Office fail, fail and fail again in medium and long range forecasting and when this cold weather will end and then return? I Suspect not.
Would you care to consider the following –
1. The Met Office statement on Newsnight that they 'verify' their climate forecasts against past date
2. That the said past data was fraudulently produced by, for example, the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and exposed in the CLIMATEGATE files..
3. It is therefore unsurprising that the Met Offices climate and season ahead forecasts fail fail and fail again.
They are rooted in failed science and falsified data.
– The world has been cooling for at least 7 years while CO2 has been rising – contrary to their foreacst.
– The floody 'non barbecue' summers of 2007, 2008 and 2009 and the cold winter 08/09 and now 09/10 were ALL the opposite of the Met office forecast and ALL as predicted by WeatherAction months ahead. Met Office scored 0/5 and WeatherAction scored 5/5.
4. The faled Met Office forecast for this winter and the consequent unnecessary suffering and road deaths should be laid at the feet of the University of East Anglia, the Met Office and the BBC and charges of collective manslaughter be issued.
Are you a public service broadcaster or what?
Piers Corbyn Msc (astrophysics), ARCS, FRAS, FRMetS
WeatherAction long range weather and climate forecasters
Traciatim
Apparently it's not cold everywhere:
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2010/01/met-office-reminds-us-its-not-cold-everywhere.php
Anthony – I'd suggest the BBC probe on bias is worth a post on WUWT.
James Delingpole("good guy" – Scots will understand this) at the Telegraph:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100021508/finally-bbc-asks-are-we-maybe-a-bit-biased-on-climate-change/
arthur clapham
Maybe the Catlin crew could go Lands End to John o Groats on foot to convince
the Guardian and the BBC that global warming really exists!!
Alexej Buergin
" Alba (08:43:45) :
Nice to see all the comments pointing out the difference between Britain/UK and England. But how many times do we have to keep pointing this out before it gets taken on board? "
It would be easier for the rest of us if the UK had a logical national flag, but Wales is not part of the Union Jack.
But I find it amusing that in sports England always have the Red Cross ready at hand when they play a tough opponent.
mdjackson
Canada's temperatures are well within seasonal averages for this time of year, at least according to a casual flip through some old Farmer's Almanac records. It's -3 celsius where I am now in central British Columbia and that's about average. It's neither warmer nor colder than usual.
I'm not an expert. I've only been experiencing winters in Canada for 45 years, but really, things aren't that different here now than when I was a kid. But I guess that kind of observation doesn't count for much without a computer model or a degree in climatology. As they say, weather isn't climate and local weather has no bearing on Global Trends.
Glad I have my gloves with me, though.
P Gosselin
How about a satellite photo of Europe.
I'm sure a good part of Europe is white too. In Germany we've had snow everywhere and we're getting more the entire weekend.
That aint Jesus! It's al Gore.
His Alaska exhibit been moved to England…er, I mean the UK!
Just heard david cameron[a possible future prime minister] criticising the government about the dwindling supplies of road salt…,,'we can expect many such unusual events in the future' ..obviously alluding to 'climate change'..they just don't get it do they?
In Germany, many municipalities have run out of road salt
MartinB (09:57:21) :
…wheeling out some pilchard from the met office to tell us, not to worry because global warming is still on.
made me giggle a bit. So once the cooling blip effect (which we do not need to worry about) has subsided, we can resume worrying about global scorching!? Great !
"Peter Hearnden",
No, what this cold weather does is put paid to those fools who claimed – like you did – that individual weather events were evidence or supportive of manmade climate change.
I hope your hogs are doing well in this weather, I do like my pork. Make sure they don't get buried yes?
My understanding of this cold weather is that it is caused by the jet stream moving to lower latitudes and causing "blocking". Warmer tropical air can't get in and polar air can't get out. This leads to an interesting dynamic.
The warmer air masses must continue to get warmer and the colder masses will continue to cool. This will lead to a greater and greater temperature gradient. At some point the blocking must end, and the extra energy will be unleashed. All this warmer moist air will break over the polar masses, spilling gargantuan amounts of snow.
Is this a real possiblility or am I misunderstanding weather? Any meterologists care to comment?
If this is true…
The American "pay czar" Kenneth Feinberg has some crackerjack ideas for letting the pay of business execs, brokers, etc, be a more honest expression of their performance. One of those was… well, pay-for-performance. If these guys' forecasts are going to influence or help set expensive policy-making, let their pay be retroactive. If they make two-year prognostications, let their pay be served up in 2012. If they want to make decade-long predictions (and hit the mark) they should get the big bucks – in 2020.
Stock options in lieu of big bonuses can keep private CEOs and CFOs focused on honest and defensible work instead of family vacations in Bimini, and they are only redeemable in the distant future when the company makes a profit. Why can't some kind of similar system of restraints be applied to government workers?
At what point does global "weather" anomalies become "climate"?
It would seem to me that consecutive cold/severe winters (2007, 2008, 2009 now) across the world is climate. No?
JohnH (09:44:53) :
Oldseadog (09:51:44) :
So, was there a moderation lag and you didn't see my correction just below that post?
Say, can you help me on a small matter? With my mixed heritage on my father's side, I was told I have both Scottish and Irish ancestors But that was Welsh Irish, which is important. What was my father talking about?
Atomic Hairdryer
Last time we had snow like this was at the end of our last Labour government, but please remember correlation does not equal causation.
Local weather report from a bit to the left of London was an overnight low of -5C, so not that bad. Or wouldn't have been if a 9″ water main hadn't burst, denying me my nice hot shower and coffee. Fortunately, I'd planned ahead and had a case of beer global warming outside and had a pleasent day helping the neighbour's kids build snowpeople.
Roads still not good, partly due to drivers not being used to them and councils not gritting them. Ploughing many UK side roads is probably somewhat hampered by council's love of 'traffic calming' by sticking speed humps in roads, no doubt sponsored by suspension manufacturers. After the last lot of snow a couple of weeks back, also expecting lots of surface damage to the roads.
But all is not lost, we've also just announced a massive expansion in off-shore windfarms, which will cost more than nuclear plants and be a lot less reliable. Looking on the bright side, not long to go till the UK* is under new management.
*Yes, I know, Scotland and Wales have semi-independence, but if Scotland had only pushed harder, you could've had your MP's back.
This concludes the test to see if Ireland, Wales, and Scotland were listening.
Magnus A
(I saw that John Mitchell, an "AGW scientist" since the 80s, is chief scientist at Met Office and works with moddeling at Hadley.)
mbabbitt
When people get a taste of real cold, they will beg for warming.
M White
If you haven't seen it already
"Global warming is happening, even if it doesn't feel like it"
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/global-warming-is-happening-even-if-it-doesnt-feel-like-it-1858998.html
SidViscous
Wales is a fictional country.
Fred2
It's COLD in January inthe Northern hemisphere.
Shock- horror! Stop the presses!
Working on a contract in Winnipeg myself, I can report that Windchill driven -41C is a lot colder feeling than just -40C straight.
It's nice to see the locals take in stride though. ("When you go outside to smoke your cigarette, make sure that your drink has enough alchohol, it's embarassing when it freezes.")
As to Brits and weather – we all realize that you can't plan for EVERY extreme, but it's amazing how the weeniest bit of prep, like a bag of sand in the trunk and shovel can make your life less miserable. Ditto things like buckling RR tracks in the heat – GUYS – this is 150 y.o. technology, pay attention already, that's a solved problem that costs basically nothing to plan and account for at build time.
agimarc
Here in Anchorage Alaska, it has been our normal winter so far. There is only so much cold air to go around, so when it is very cold up here, it is reasonable in the Lower 48. When it is very cold down south, it is decent up here. That works well until it gets to be February when the analogy breaks down and it is cold everywhere. Our cold air tends to come in from either Siberia or over the pole. It will build in a high over the state for 1-3 weeks at a time.
Those that aren't used to snow and ice can also use cat litter to improve traction on steps, sidewalks and driveways. While it doesn't melt the ice like salt will do, it does provide traction and tends to be a bit easier on the lawns and gardens afterwards. Stay warm –
AJB
K. Bray (08:44:13) :
I see "Puff the Magic Dragon" talking to "Winnie the Poo" with a bow tie on his head.
Could be Deputy Dawg riding away from them cotton pickin' bandits from Copenhagen on a squealing pig.
On the day we had this mind numbing stupidity from the Met Offfice ('freezing is really warming'…) and fellow travellers in the warmist denial movement, we have an announcement from the government about 1000's of new wind turbines and a cost of at least £100 bn.
I was the hills of Central Wales the other day with the temperature at -10C with huge demand for power on the grid. Not one of the 100 wind turbines at the neaby Llnadinam Windfarm was working. No wind, therefore, no Power. A month ago there were huge storm force gales and again few turbines working – too much wind, therefore, no power???
The Andrew Neil interview, for me, turned this into a shooting war. Up until this I had just seen the MO as a bunch of deluded clowns but once he started with every trick from the slimy politician handbook I really couldn't believe what I was hearing.
"If you go back you will find that we predicted, in fact, the levelling off of the global temperatures"
That would be while heading for our Mediterranean climate would it John?
(Fifty days to save the world Gordon?)
Exactly how long ago did Paul Hudson find himself a the centre of a very nasty [s snip]storm for asking "whatever happened to Global warming"?
I am getting real tired of these clowns. As one fantasy outcome is exposed another ten take it's place. All well within our "ensemble" of possible outcomes.
If I went to the race track and placed a bet to win on every horse in a particular race do I really have a system? Even where 20 horses in 21 horse race don't move, I still get to claim victory.
The truth is that a child tossing a coin has had better predictive "skill" than the MO. Unless of course it is already snowing at which point they may tell is that it mightcontinue. While the rest of the staff get busy re-writing history.
You can see the problem. Politicians want numbers and certainty, modellers give them that. Well, we can say with 80% confidence that at least one of the horses will win the race. What is truly frightening is that they then chain disparate "models" together with the same air of confidence.
Climate model outcome matrix X financial model outcome matrix = ?.. not "skill" and that is for sure.
The "movement" look like roaches scurrying for cover as the lights come on. It is long past time that a political leader in the UK grew a spine and said enough is enough. Congratulations John Hirst, I had thought that the MO, BBC and the sustainable green agenda could just be passed off as deluded clowns. You are actually just as dangerous to mankind as any weapon.
I'm now firmly with Gerald Warner .. That is the answer: Zero Tolerance of "Green" agendas.
Ric Werme(@ricwerme)
Alexander (08:55:46) :
I was interested to read this morning that the Ministry of Defence has just cancelled 25% of the Met Office's budget without comment.
Just canceled? As in addition to the 25% cut in June? See
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/28/uks-met-office-loses-25-of-its-funding/
(Note two 25% cuts add up to 37.5%. After the first, 75% remains, 75% of that is 9/16th, and that's 62.5% remaining.)
Or is this just another example that WUWT is the place to hear things before they're just news?
Weather: The results of abnormally cold local temperatures
Climate: The results of abnormally warm local temperatures
Once you accept these two definitions the Guardian climate reporting starts to make sense.
oldgifford
Met Office Levelling off.
Mati Milstein
for National Geographic News
Warming due to climate change will level off in the coming years, researchers predict based on a new climate model. But then temperatures will kick back up and continue rising into the early 2010s, producing record highs.
In fact, about half of the years after 2009 will be warmer than 1998, the hottest year on record, scientists say.
The new model, created by researchers at the Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter, is the first to predict such specific fluctuations in global climate.
Doug Smith, a scientist at the Met Office and co-author of a paper on the new model, warns that the initial leveling-off should not be seen as countering previous predictions about global temperature increases.
Oh, and one last definition:
Abnormal: any deviation from same time last year.
… his "massive performance related bonus" is stashed in the East Anglian saddle bag at the back. Dag Nabit!
Regarding the debate over whether the Met Office predicted a flattening of temperatures. Another Gem of evidence from the BBC website itself, December 2003:
It's our old friend Dr Jones! (but not the one with the whip….) speaking on behalf of the Meto / Hadley:
"Heat high for 2003 but no record"
and I quote from the end:
"Professor Jones told BBC News Online: "October was about 2 C below normal in the UK, and although November was warmer than average it was not enough to compensate. The unusual aspect of this year for me was the summer heat in Europe, with nights in Italy which didn't dip below 25 C. I won't be going to Italy in August again. But we can expect nights like that here some time soon, though not as regular events. Globally, I expect the five years from 2006 to 2010 will be about a tenth of a degree warmer than 2001 to 2005."
The prediction was that 2006-2010 would be 0.1C Warmer than 2001-2005. I've already done the calculation:
2001-2005 is 0.445C
(All data from Hadley Series)
So, with ONE year to go we are currently -0.05C Cooler over the two periods. to get a FLAT temperature 2010 would need to be 0.65C – that indeed would be a new Hadley Yearly record temperature – and they have predicted this ;-|
Just to say for Dr Jones 0.1C prediction to come off, 2010 would need to be +1.15C………. LOL.
In reality they'll be lucky to pull off a Flat Trend, most probably a Cooling over the decade.
Another man from the Met on BBC newsnight
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/newsnight
The MetOffices on Fri 27 Nov 2009 gave us "For northern Europe, including the UK, there is a 20% chance of a colder winter, a 30% chance of an average winter and a 50% chance of a milder winter"
Appart from allowing the Met to cover all their bases I don not see the point of using percentages for these seasonal forecasts.
Yertiz – I remember a comment from my long ago days living in Scotland – "every Scot who has left Scotland to live in England has raised the average IQ of both coiuntries."
I stopped taking any notice of Met Office forecasts a long time ago. Ever since they became part of the AGW scam their reports have had to follow the political agenda as dictated by our appalling government, who have ignored Climategate as if it never happened. Today, the news reports that another £billion pounds worth of windmills are to be built offshore. The BBC reporter breathlessly tells us that they will supply 12million homes but there is no mention of what happens when the wind stops blowing.
Global Warming Perspective….
Imagine a 50 gallon sealed glass atmospheric container in your lab.
Inject it with a few more parts per million of co2, a miniscule amount.
It is physically impossible for those few molecules to catalytically influence a degree or two of temperature increase with sunlight.
The obvious source of any temperature change has to be the sun. We'd be a cold stone without it. Someday the sun will consume the earth. That will be a natural progression toward warming, so get used to it… not our fault…
Test the co2 theory with a vacuum chamber in the sun with variable co2 and see what you get… prove it….
This co2 idea is similar to those perpetual motion devices that claim to generate more power than is put into them. Bogus Alert !
If you buy the co2 trick, I also have a bridge to sell you….
Meanwhile, I'm going to take a nice hot bath, in my nice warm home, after my nice warm lunch… leaving my carbon footprints to settle in the snow….
Bulaman
How can you tell a climate scientist is lying? His lips are moving!
Sammy Wilson recounts a conversation with a man from the MetOffice during a climate chnge conference in the Channel Islands.
http://www.kane-tv.com/wa/sammywilson.html
"Do you use the same model for those short term predictions as you do for the long term predictions?
Well if you can't get it right 5 months ahead how do you hpe to get it right 50 years ahead?"
Apparently it's easier to predict 50 years ahead than it is to predict 5 months ahead!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Robuk
The UK Local authorities are running out of salt and grit, in august they all met to decide at what level salt and grit stocks should be for this winter, they decided on 6 days, that decision was obviousely based predominantly on the advice from the Met office that this winter would be mild.
RSS MSU 12-2009: +0.24 °C. Rank: 7/31
Warmest December in this series was in 2003.
Average last 12 months: 0.26 °C
jorgekafkazar
Barry Foster (09:48:30) : "Dodgy Geezer is correct. In the summer we can get some scorching days which has buckled rail lines and melted tarmac. Being right off the Atlantic we can also get strong winds. To be able to cope with anything would require massive investment…"
Massive investment will no longer be an option once Ali Pachauri and the 144 Thieves have looted the UK treasury to fund military action all across the Third World.
Alexej Buergin (10:03:03) : "…I find it amusing that in sports England always have the Red Cross ready at hand when they play a tough opponent."
That's for fans injured in the melee that accompanies the event.
Brits burning books to say warm.
Warning!! Do not switch to electric heat.
It cranks out at a 3.6% of capacity.
And just when you need it most, it doesn't. We're peaking at 59GW and wind was supplying a pathetic 3.5 percent of installed capacity, delivering a mere 147MW just after midnight, or 0.3 percent of our total power requirement. Coal, on the other hand, was bashing out 48.3 percent while gas came in second place with 33.2 percent.
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/
If you bought a car that could go 100 miles per hour but you couldn't go over 4 miles per hour? What would you do?
That is the result out of wind farms. 3.5% of rated output.
That translates to needing 30 times as many windmills as they promise you need.
As the poles heat up and the tropics cool (global warming doncha know) the gulf stream will reverse warming all in its path. Just as it does now only in reverse. This will cause great ecological disasters because only fish that can swim backwards efficiently (not a common trait) can survive.
And due to a lack of food seals will die and thus polar bears will become extinct. Kittens and puppies will be affected as well.
Royaul52
Cryosphere satellite pics seem to have been adjusted to hide the snow cover of most of land areas, except in the "compare daily sea ice" pics. Any theories as to why?
DavidS
I met with my local councillor today and he was bemoaning the Met Office October and November forecast of a mild winter. He said he wasn't sure they would utilise the Mets foreasts anymore for planning their Salt/Grit supplies but wasn't sure what else to do.
sonicfrog
More reality disconnect:
Anyone else notice the background on the video??? That is London, or somewhere in England, right? Where's the snow?
Mike D. (08:29:50) :
Obviously, the current spell of extreme CAGW warm-cool is a denialist plot. I blame the Republicans. If only we had more windmills.
We have one windmill near our village (Kirklington, Nottinghamshire, UK), it has not moved for weeks.
Philip Franklin
Yes…there is the face of an old man with long white beard and wind-swept hair hovering over Ireland.
And now we have the ever-more ridiculous Ed Miliband assuring us that we shall be able to get all the power 'every house in Britain needs' from the thousands of off-shore wind turbines that he plans to erect in the North Sea.
I have to ask, how can a man (Miliband), who gives all the appearance of an educated and intelligent man (they don't always go together), come to the conclusion that tens of thousands of horrendously expensive wind turbines are going to get this country out of debt and, furthermore, keep the lights on.
I even heard some spokesman for Scottish environment (on the news two nights ago) say that he can't wait for the time when fossil-fueled and nuclear power will be switched off in Scotland! Well, they're welcome to go back to the Dark Ages.
We live in strange times!
Micky C
Most of Northern Ireland roads are just black ice. They were for the Christmas period, especially in estates and the country. I think they are expecting some snow though.
On a related note, my dad was on BBC NI the other day being asked his opinion about the lack of gritting streets. During the Christmas period I managed to put my point across about the whole AGW thing. It was basically this (apologies if you have read this point from me before)
"Okay, put all the natural variations, sun, El Niño and that aside, AGW is based on more CO2 means more forcing, as in a warmer surface. So you would think that someone has tested to see if re-emitted IR radiation by CO2 with realistic atmospheric components caused a surface to reach a certain temperature above the one without re-emission. And that adding more CO2 increases the temperature. They may even have modelled it. Now what if I told you nobody has reported that? All they have done is use basic physics of absorption-emission and assumed it would cause a surface to heat up. Yes, they haven't EVEN TESTED IT. You can't go and look up a data set to show you how it's been characterised…"
We talked a bit more. He told me today that he can't watch the BBC now when they talk about climate change. The first thing in his head is well how do you know that increasing CO2 caused an increase in the temperature of the Earth? He also suggested I get some money and test CO2 forcing myself with my colleagues (I'm a physicist but I build space engines for living). I am thinking about it. Use some NaCl glass for a start. Get a big solar sim for a heat source.
I'm also glad that my dad has a bit more understanding about how bloody hard science is to do
James F. Evans
Wow…What a picture!
How long will the whole of Britain be covered in snow?
Link to today's Edmonton Sun piece posted by Kevin @ 09:15:55 is well worth the trip.
Key snippet:
"Edmonton was the coldest place in North America yesterday morning and the second chilliest in the world.
The Edmonton International Airport saw a record low of -46.1 C and -58.4 C with the windchill, outfreezing even the Arctic."
-46.1 C is -51 F !!
IIRC in the last 55 years here in northern ND we had -50 F or better only 2-3 times. People who live in warmer climates have NO IDEA how cold that feels when you are outside in it; and how most powered machinery (especially including cars) don't function unless they are kept warm.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/6931584/Met-Office-chief-receives-25-pc-pay-rise.html
I watched this on John Hirst yesterday. John was recruited to the Met Office 2 years ago from Big Oil ICI. Of course now the greenie weenies adore him. Why did he get such a fat bonus last year and waste so much money?
Fat cats R US???
King of Cool
<Merrick (09:29:45) :
Merrick, yes it is but it is also intimidation of opponents in sport normally associated with cricket. Australian players are notorious sledgers especially against Englishmen but all nations seem to do it. Wikipedia gives the complete history.
I would imagine that there is a lot of both types of sledging going on in the UK, Britain, Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales at the moment like:
"Hey Mr Hirst, don't stick your finger out of the window, you will get frostbite", "Interested in coming around to my place for a barbecue Mr Hirst?", "I do wish we could chat longer Mr Hirst but I'm having an old friend for dinner," "Tell us Mr Hirst, is this the first once in thousand year event?" etc etc.
Traciatim – this is a very poor response by the Met. Note that the time frame is one week, vs one month of cold temps. That is 4 : 1, a larger statistical difference than the 3 : 1 ratio that the very same Met officials complain about when we point out that it hasn't warmed for a decade vs the Climate Science standard of thirty years. Plus, if it's only the fifth warmest year, that's a 50 / 50 split, which does mean that the climate for now is not warming.
NW Calif. is supposed to be in a horrible drought. We currently are 50% ahead of last year, and last year ended up as 'normal'.
The "drought" is not due to lack of rainfall. It is due to judges sitting on benches ruling that water can not be stored or pumped from one location to another. So we will need to get much more rainfall than "normal" in order to get a "normal" amount that can be distributed to towns and farmers. Entire regions of farming have been shut down due to these rulings by people who are not elected and have "lifetime" terms.
dave ward
@ Barry Foster (08:08:26) : I've been busy clearing Global Warming from the path today, and looking forward to more this coming weekend. I saw the following in the comments at the Daily Mail website yesterday:
"The University of East Anglia wishes to apologise for the temporary lull in global warming announcements.
This is due to our staff being unable to get into work because of the snow."
SteveSadlov
The most amazing thing is to see the snow cover reaching the far SW. There are a few palm trees growing down there! Snow is almost unheard of in those parts.
The probability argument from the Met Office is garbage. If the UK winter turns out to be average or slightly below average then they can reasonably claim that is an acceptable error. However this winter could turn out to be cold or very cold which, using the Met Office's original analysis, would have had a very low probability.
If we get the original numbers we can probably work out their probability estimate for current winter temperatures.
Wizard Tim:
You can buy the Eskimold igloo-making kit here:
http://webstore.eskimold.com/catalog/product_info.php?products_id=30&osCsid=19822f434a9c66dc4c18f15d20973213
TonyB
Have a look at this grear Pathe News reel from the 1930's when there was a US plan to divert the Gulf stream
http://www.britishpathe.com/results.php?search=guklf+stream
Recent News Headlines from the BBC
http://search.bbc.co.uk/search?go=homepage&Search=Search&q=cold%20weather&tab=ns&scope=all&start=1
England's extreme cold weather is putting huge pressure on hospitals as they struggle to cope with the number of weather-related injuries.
UK cold snap plunges to new low
Travel problems and school closures continue across the UK after temperatures plummet as low as -22.3C (-8.1F).
Wildlife huddles down to beat the cold
Wildlife in the northern hemisphere is being forced to find new ways to keep warm, the BBC's Penny Spiller reports.
Cold spell causes more disruption
Another day of disruption hits Wales after the country has its coldest night
Traciatim (10:00:34) …and that map it is a BIG, BIG, lie too. I write from some of the orange areas. 1998 january temperature: 38°C., clear skies, avg rain: 0.1 mm per year, 2010 temperature: 20°C (18 degrees below 1998), totally covered skies; raining all the time.
Martin Brumby
Meanwhile, back at the fort:-
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/01/very-very-sick-joke.html
points out that (like last year) it may be bitterly cold but for the last three weeks there has been almost no wind. So the bird shredders have generated almost nothing. Typically less than 0.3% of our electricity needs.
But only today our beloved little Ed Milipede and his ridiculous Department of Energy and Climate Change issued a press release:-
http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/news/pn10_004/pn10_004.aspx
The biggest expansion in wind generation in the world – at a knock down January Sale price of £75 Billion! That will make the electricity bills buttock- clenchingly exciting when you open them!
These lunatics MUST be held personally accountable for this gargantuan waste of money, which will also see the lights go out. Perhaps permanently.
Just remember, the UK public got rightly cross as the revelations about MPs fiddling their expenses came out. The amounts involved were chicken feed compared to the subsidy paid to each and every wind turbine.
OK, there is a General Election in a few weeks time.
There we have a good choice.
Vote Red (Labour) and get Green
Vote Yellow (Lib-Dem) and get Green
Vote Blue (Tory) and get Green.
They all vie with each other to prove that they are greener than the next party.
And just remember that, when the "Climate Change Bill" was approved on Tuesday 29 October 2008, making it UK law that "the net UK carbon account for the year 2050 is at least 80% lower than the 1990 baseline", undoubtedly the most expensive legislation ever passed by the House of Commons, the bill passed with 463 votes for and 3 against. And it was snowing in London for the first time in October since 1934.
Interestingly, Greenpeace stole some of Milipede's thunder by leaking today's Press Release last night. You might wonder, how come Greenpeace had a copy to leak? But actually, this little detail says all you need to know about milipede, about DECC and about this whole bizarre scheme.
I think your met office guys are not lying, they just don't see any snow or ice at all!, neither your authorities, I think this is due to a new plant for the production of a beverage formula, which they are currently drinking, used many years ago at a some church convention in the Guyanas…something like Kool…something.
Warm in Canada?? I saw a post saying it was 10 C over normal in Northern Canada. Do you mean that minus 32 C in Iqaluit should really be minus 42 C? How does that matter? Cold is cold. It is minus 17 C here in south central Ontario. Normal is minus 5 C. No, that's not any 10 C over normal. That is 12 under normal, the same 5 to 15 C under normal we have been running for 2 and a half years. Somebody please get these AGW supporters out of the weather business.
Jordan (09:38:33) :
The UK`s health and safety act will never allow this sport to be played on a natural lake ever again, fact.
At the end of the interview with Hirst they should have played the famous clip of the comment by Dr.Andrew Watson (of UEA) at the end of his debate with Marc Morano.
Pingo:
I have friends in the Wirral and they are having to slide to work as they are demanded in and it is lethal. One has fallen twice already and he is in his 20s!
You can buy "heavy duty snow chains for shoes" for $50, reviewed here on Cool Tools:
http://www.kk.org/cooltools/archives/003486.php
Russtovich
Current "northern" Canadian temperatures:
Inuvik – -26C
Old Crow – -23C
Iqualit – -32C
And, as Kevin mentioned, Edmonton suffered thru -40C and worse a few weeks ago. The same was true of Whitehorse and other places.
I think someone's been feeding you a line about northern Canada being milder.
dearieme
"where is going to be hit hardest?
Unfortunately, it will also fall on refuteniks like me!!
The snow it snoweth equally
On the just and unjust fella
But more upon the just
For the unjust hath the just's umbrella.
Dodgy Geezer (09:17:28) :
"Mr. Hirst, you predicted a barbeque summer for 2009 – we don't remember that – and a mild winter for this winter, which hasn't happened.
You might very well think that.
Why did you get a massive performance related bonus?"
I couldn't possibly comment.
Chuck Blandford
The lion in winter
Video couldn't be reached here in belgium at 20:30 CET, so here's the youtube link with the fabulous Mr Hirst : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8BCnX8LIIY
From the today's Guardian:
"Current weather forecasts, which suggest temperatures remaining low and more snow to come, is raising confidence that the number of Highland skiers could return to the peak years of the 1960s and 1970s.
At the Met Office, a spokesman said he wouldn't recommend investing in Scottish ski lodges. Its climate predictions suggest that by 2080 the average winter night-time temperature in the Highlands will rise by 4C. Even a two-degree rise will permanently reduce the amount of lying snow by up to 90%."
Time is right to invest heavily in Scottish ski lodges then!
As I read recently:
When the managers at the Met Office get fired we can now safely assume that they wouldn't have seen it coming.
Vinny Burgoo
@Barry Foster, K. Bray, Kadaka, M. Simon, Ray, philincalifornia, Philip Franklin, Rorschach et al.
You're imagining things. You must all be on drugs. But Trotsky is definitely there. His 'tache is in Coventry, he's wearing a white jacket and he might be playing the drums.
tjexcite
All of the Norther hemisphere is cover in snow good.. Now pay your carbon tax and your heating oil tax and your power by coal tax.
Dr A Burns
Met Office Chief : "Who reckons it's going to be warm … I count seven hands … that makes it a 70% probability"
However I do wonder about those forecasts for rain when the probability of rain on a day a week out, gets higher each day but the forecast amount gets less. Eventually there's a 90% chance of <1mm … and the day is fine. Magically, a forecast for rain becomes correct.
Hot debate, polluted science. It's clear to me that it isn't the Earth that needs help…
In my 42 years of living in South Sweden I have never experienced a winter like this one. It's fantastic! Everywhere these postcard like views of crystal white snow covering trees and fields. It certainly helps to make the "dark season" (7 hrs daylight now) a bit more livable. Also because it's so cold (below -10 C for two weeks now) the snow is like a lightweight powder.
"Lie, Lie, Lie that something remains", add to that those Hansen's toy trains, a bit of german language and you get the whole recipe:
http://www.spunk.org/texts/places/germany/sp001630/peter.html
John R. Walker
Sitting here on the edge of Snowdonia in North Wales – the power is on but averaging around 160 Volts not 220-240V as it should be. Been that way since mid afternoon… It's 2030hr UK time. Flourescent tubes won't start, electric kettle is taking a LONG time to boil, and I'm surviving courtesy of the big 3KVA Uninterruptable Power Suppy (UPS) I installed years ago. That keeps the computers up for a good 2 hours. My neighbours are using candles… Candles are actually quite nice – might as well get used to them…
It's only minus 4.5C here near the coast so what the hell? Things could be a lot worse! They probably will be by morning!
I console myself knowing that my house is built on the terminal moraine debris left by the Snowdon Glacier in the last Ice Age… It's a permanent reminder of just how bloody lucky we are to be warm enough most of the time!
Yes the BBC fed by the MET
The most irritating thing about the interview with the Met Office guy was that he didn't at all admit to error…in fact he pulled the "we expected this leveling of temperatures after 1998." BS! I heard he say "expect" probably 20 times…sheesh don't these guys have any humility to admit the errors to their warm bias?! Sheesh, siding with warming seemed to have been envogue when it was warming…but now that it's not…the 100% PERSISTANCE (aka warming forever) forecast ISNT GOING TO CUT IT ANYMORE!
It shows how aweful models actually verifty with the natural chaos of the atmosphere. We're not fortune tellers and we'll never be. The short term models (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS/Canadian/MetUk), medium range models (NCEP CFS) and long range (AGW models)…are not reasonalby accurate to predict very well. When you know and see the lack of verification…then you understand what the deal is. And you wonder why the people behind the models don't see the forest from the trees.
But patterns and cycles are where we can rest our bets best…consistency in weather should never be expected to last for eternity. Eventually, it will change, and it usually will do what you expect last.
Yes, you can see Michael Jackson peering over his left shoulder. Squinting a little helps. Well spotted!
My two bits on Canada.
I live on the southern plains near Lethbridge Alberta where December's mean temp was -13.3°C which is 8C° below average. As our Edmonton friends have noted many records were blown away. We hit -39.5°C on Dec 8. Smashed the old record by many degrees.
Yesterday morning it was -35°C here in Lethbridge.
Finally a Chinook has blown in. Woohoo. ☺
Warm is just fine with me.
Leon Brozyna
Another of my rules when reading/hearing the news is to monitor the number of adjectives used. The more adjectives, the less credible the story/journalist. Then I have to go about digging for real facts.
Seeing all the stories about this year's winter weather in Great Britain and Western Europe, I half expect to hear a breathless announcement about advancing glaciers.
So, what's happening?
Here in Buffalo it's 17°F while in London, England it's 28°F. Of course, it sounds better (for the hype) in Celsius:
Here in Buffalo it's -8.33°C while in London, England it's -2.22°C. And overnight, it is forecast that temps in Buffalo could get as low as -15°C.
I guess the Gulf Stream gives the UK and Western Europe its moderate climate — except when it doesn't. Blame it on the loopy jet stream; it's overwhelmed the Gulf Stream. But why's the jet stream loopy? Shhh – don't ask embarrassing questions.
Excuse me now while I head on out to use my shovel, Al Gore, to remove a few inches (only 2 or 3) of global warming.
Scouse Pete (09:50:21) : On Peter Stott's (Met Office scientist) claim that we are getting "milder, wetter winters": This is untrue. I know because I've taken the Met Office data and compiled the graphs myself. The idea of milder winters is shot down here http://climate-graphs.co.uk/index.php?option=com_wrapper&view=wrapper&Itemid=4 Choose 'CET Series', then 'Hadset', then 'Winter', then 1989 to 2009. You get a flatline – for 20 years! However, much more important than that is the idea that winters have become "wetter". They have not! If you go here http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/data/seasonal/HadEWP_ssn.dat In the first column is the winter rainfall for England & Wales. If you compile a graph of this data going back 30 years you actually get a slight fall in annual levels of precipitation. I have been trying to get the Met Office to accept their own data for some time! Similarly, if you compile graphs of their data for summer temperature and precipitation (as I have done) the idea that we are getting "hotter, drier summers" is also completely dismantled. Indeed, even the Met Offices own graph shows it from 1980 here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/monitoring/CR_data/Monthly/EWP_seasonal1.gif Summer rainfall has INCREASED, not decreased. I shall be tackling Peter Stott by letter on these points. We cannot allow 'scientists' like Stott to get away with blatant lies like this. It's indefensible.
climatebeagle
Ed Murphy: there are reports of lizards freezing and dropping out of trees.
Sounds like a line from a Python sketch! Made me laugh and almost choke on my lunch.
John R Walker. I'm no electrician, but isn't it dangerous to get 160v when you should get 230v? I seem to remember that it can cause induction motors to catch fire. Is that correct, anyone?
TanGeng
Wow, this is on BBC? Surprising. I can't believe they're holding his feet to the fire.
KlausB
P Gosselin (10:05:21) :
In Germany, many municipalities have run out of road salt.
Yep, a lot of them are.
Did buy a lot of fluroridated salt (NaF/NaCl) a few years ago.
Now I've a use for it.
It's for the roads, not for human bodies, NOR for the teeths.
Hot Air Windmill produces Electricity, Tanning, and "Carbon Chips".
I've invented a "Hot Air Windmill" that politicians, bureaucrats, and warmists can wear like a hat. The propeller hangs in front of their face and is powered by that powerful air blast that comes out the mouth, as one sees in the Al Gore Ice Sculpture and persons like Mr. Hirst.
This seemingly "endless power source" generates electricity that is then microwaved to the power grid.
Sadly, it's not a 100% "green" process due to a byproduct of "brown waste" that comes out the bottom end. After a solar dehydration process however, the hot air byproduct would be pressed into "Carbon Chips" and could be valuable in carbon trading. Brown paper certificates could be issued for transactions while the actual "Chips" could be warehoused similar to gold in Ft. Knox.
An additional bonus is the second hand exposure to microwaves can give a great tan, year round.
Overall, it's "Brown Gold" into Green. I can hear Sting singing "Fields of Gold" right now… the image is breathtaking, all those chips drying, but it's probably just the smell… Carbon Trading really Stinks… politically, figuratively, and literally… really, really bad.
I want to vote them all out… yesterday.
Peter Hearnden (09:38:42) :
[…] It's also amazing how cold it's been given the (supposed) UHI that sceptics say plaster the UK and warm it so much – ha ha!
I know the forecasts are starting to sound a bit boring but if you cared to listen properly, in the last few days all forecasts on BBC, ITV, Sky and Channel 4 have been specifically pointing out that the cities are much warmer than rural areas.
The BBC even went so far as to draw attention to this in a map showing the temperatures in the major city centres to emphasize how cold it really is. At the moment forecasts almost always point out that it is "of course, much colder in the countryside" or "several degrees warmer in the city centres, of course".
I only picked up on it because the phrase "of course" was used so often.
Astonishingly, during assembly at my child's school today, the headteacher first explained why the kids were not allowed outside to play for as long as there was snow in the playground (health and safety gone mad, again) and then stressed that this did not mean that global warming was no longer happening. She blamed the cold spell on the warming arctic and told them a sob story about a polar bear mama and her cubs almost drowning because of the melting ice.
"…and, as Kevin mentioned, Edmonton suffered thru -40C"
Good thing it wasn't -40F 😉
I live in Devon in the warm bit of the SW of England (the bit that sticks out left at the bottom). If you look closely at the map you can see me waving. I'm that white object. The last two nights have been -14.6C and -16.7C. I live in a valley. The river has frozen and there is no way I can get out as the steep lanes do not get gritted. Fortunately I listened to Piers Corbyn and ignored the Met Office. I have at least 2 months supply of food and fuel (heating oil and logs). Will they be enough?
The government has bankrupted our country and has placed its minions in highly-paid (and highly-pensioned) taxpayer-funded jobs in control of virtually every influential organisation. Will the last person to leave the country please turn off the lights. Oops, too late. The government is already already making sure they will autonatically turn themselves off.
It's time the natives started revolting.
Steve Schaper
Here, I'm waiting for it to get warm enough for the salt to work. Presently 1 degree above the freezing point of alcohol.
Neil Crafter
I wonder when weather forecasters first started covering themselves by using percentages? As we know if you forecast there is a 30% chance of rain, and it doesn't rain, then well it was in the 70% and the forecasters were right. If it does rain, well that was in the 30% and they are right also! They can never be wrong. Fortunately, most forecasts here in Australia have not yet adopted the % system. Hope it warms up by the end of March when I am coming to the UK for 3 weeks……
Okay children, it is time for the question of the week. You want to know the weather and forecast and all you have is a 30 million dollar computer. Do you?
1) Program the computer with the latest AGW model?
2) Call Piers Corbyn and tell him you'll give him a perfectly good computer if he'll give you the forecast?
3) Throw the computer through the wall and have a look outside?
(Circle the best answer)
Brendan H
Arctic sea ice extent for December 2009 seems to be back to 2007 levels. From NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis:
"Arctic sea ice extent at end of December 2009 remained below normal, primarily in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Average air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean were much higher than normal for the month, reflecting unusual atmospheric conditions."
…"December air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean region, eastern Siberia, and northwestern North America were warmer than normal. In contrast, temperatures in Eurasia, the United States, and southwestern Canada were below average."
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Overall, it looks like atmospheric energy is being distributed in unusual ways.
joated
I want to play poker against Mr. Hirst.
Reply: Now that is funny. ~ ctm
u.k.(us)
here's the link to the high res. photo of "the isles", lots more detail.
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2010007-0107/GreatBritain.A2010007.1150.250m.jpg
Stephen Wilde
From 1975 to 2000 the jet streams moved poleward.
From 2000 to date they have been moving equatorward.
They were both climate shifts and not mere weather.
The current whole hemisphere cold spell would have been highly unlikely under the previous regime. If it persists until the end of January, let alone into March then it would have been impossible under the previous regime.
Unless those jets go poleward again and persistently so then no warming trend will resume.
The fact is that the position of the jets is not and never has been controlled or even significantly influenced by CO2 concentrations. Unless there can be demonstrated a direct link between CO2 concentrations and jet stream positions there can be no diagnosis of AGW.
"The last two nights have been -14.6C and -16.7C. I live in a valley. " That's really cold, not typical of Devon in this cold spell, but of frost hollows like Benson. Lowest I've recorded is -8C, though I don't doubt a few sub -10C's here and there.
You really ought to let the media or The Met O know, I'm sure they'd be interested in such readings.
Piers. Cracking self publicist, bit alarmist for my liking though. Always forecasting record breaking this or dangerous that every month. Our weather is bad but it's not that bad…
As an aside there are some really angry people here today. 'Chill' people, in the UK you'll get a vote soon and we can all then watch your people have a turn.
Allan M
Alexej Buergin (10:03:03) :
Quite logical! England and Scotland are countries; Wales is a principality.
The Prince of Wales, the Right Charlie, the one who has a servant to squeeze his toothpaste, is the culprit there.
Incidentally, the only lake in Scotland.
MikeE
kwik (08:36:45) :
LOL!!! – Well, my wife, daughter and I are coming to Norway in December (2010), to see the band "A-ha" – not their final concert (it was booked out), but one of their last.
So what do you reckon then – T-shirt and shorts?
Vargs
It's OK though. My Mum just explained to me that they did say that there would be more extreme weather due to greenhouse gases. I had to point out that Britain was shut down for months in 1947 by Canadian-style blizzards.
Mind you, we did have stockpiles laid in during the seventies in order to prepare for the coming ice age. I wonder whether "climate change" can go negative. Look out for down-going hockey sticks, coming to a journal near you real soon now….
Patience Pending.
I've invented a "Hot Air Windmill" that politicians, bureaucrats, and warmists can wear like a hat. The propeller hangs in front of their face and is powered by that powerful air blast that comes out the mouth, as one sees in the Al Gore Ice Sculpture and from persons like Mr. Hirst.
An additional bonus is the second hand exposure to microwaves can give a great tan, year round for folks within a 10 meter radius.
For a better life in the future on this planet, let's vote out as many "warming calamitists" as soon as we can. AGW is really "tilting at windmills"… "hot air" windmills, that is. Enough!
(I had designed a windmill for both ends but the lower output was not reliable and was intermittent as source of hot air blasts and had an additional explosive gas risk for the generator brushes causing a "hot seat" situation. Oh well, back to the drawing board of fantasy…)
Met Office bonuses, etc: Well, at one time, civil (public) servants went about their unglamourous jobs for unglamourous salaries (but with job security and a reasonable pension) without fuss or particular flair.
It was actually a Tory government under Margaret Thatcher who decided that the civil (public) service should be more like "business" and so the culture of "performance bonuses" was born. It may have had some good effects in some areas, but by and large it is quite hard to measure performance where profit is not the main driving force of an enterprise. So now you get totally artificial performance targets and unrealistic and unjustifiable bonuses as a result.
Can we rewind 30 years and start again please?
What we seem to be seeing is a large redistribution of tropospheric heat energy with mid latitude regions cooling but equatorial regions remaining warm and high polar regions relatively warm.
In the process of that redistribution the air circulation patterns have shifted substantially equatorward but that in itself is merely an extension of the changes that should have been apparent to all observers of weather and climate since 2000.
Applying my general climate description I would say that the following is the likely explanation:
i) Generally a latitudinal shift in the air circulation patterns is ocean driven and since about 2000 the PDO has been trending to the negative phase so that gives a basic background cooling effect with an equatorward shift in all the air circulation systems.
ii) In contrast the Arctic Oscillation that controls the size and position of the northern polar high pressure systems (and the southern hemisphere equivalent) is driven by a combination of the speed of the hydrological cycle as dictated by the rate of ocean energy release and the speed at which the stratosphere can radiate energy to space which is driven by variations in the turbulence of the flow of energy from the sun. The SABER satellite results appear to show that the rate of loss of energy to space is greater when the sun is active and less when the sun is less active.
iii) At present the quiet sun is reducing the rate of energy loss to space and the stratosphere is warming. At the same time the 2009 El Nino has been pumping energy faster to the stratosphere. The combined effects have both been supplementing one another to increase the flows of energy up into and then downward out of the stratosphere to enhance the size of the polar high pressure cells and push them equatorward against the counter pressure from the El Nino.
iv) The result is cooling mid latitudes but warming equatorial and relatively warm (but still well below the freezing point of water) polar latitudes. That is a consequence of the negative Arctic Oscillation and the southern hemisphere equivalent allowing larger and more frequent exchanges of air between the polar and mid latitude regions.
If this situation were to last for long then the cooling mid latitude landmasses would reduce the temperature of the air flowing into the polar regions and allow faster cooling of the polar regions. Obviously the phenomenon is more pronounced in the northern hemisphere because of the greater land mass areas.
We will only get a weakening of the Arctic Oscillation and the southern hemisphere equivalent when the current El Nino fades and/or the sun starts awakening from the current solar minimum.
The extent to which the air circulation systems then move poleward again (if at all) will again depend upon a balance between the rate of energy release by the oceans and the level of solar activity.
It seems not to be the total solar irradiance (TSI) that matters but rather the level of solar turbulence that influences the rate at which the upper atmosphere can lose energy to space. Active sun counterintuitively results in more energy lost to space to more than offset any small increase in TSI.
This hypothesis can be readily tested by observations as the ENSO signal and the solar signal vary with time.
The average latitudinal position of the mid latitude jets and the strength of the Arctic Oscillation should be seen to respond as I have suggested.
Increased / decreased energy release by oceans sends air circulation systems poleward / equatorward.
Increased / decreased solar activity sends air circulation systems poleward / equatorward.
Regional climate depends on the position of a specific location in relation to the latitudinal position of the air circulation systems.
Global climate depends on net tropospheric temperature gain or loss from the solar / oceanic interaction.
PaulsNZ
Wow, How arrogant can anyone be!. Typical egg head caught out in a blatant lie!. Doesn't even have the honesty to say "they made a mistake" Because they didn't make a mistake they perpetrated a blatant LIE Global Warming!. Hey but its all right its not as though anyone will die because of the Met's blatant political-science they wish to push!.
Agust H. Bjarnason
NewIceland ?
David Jones (09:47:43) :
Yes, but it's still pretty cold for the UK, even in winter!
hickman (10:03:52) :
An excellent point. Of course, had it not been for the AGW brain-washing of the last few decades, the current weather events would not be regarded as unusual events whatsoever for the northern hemisphere in January.
John R. Walker (12:35:39) :
Sitting here on the edge of Snowdonia in North Wales – the power is on but averaging around 160 Volts not 220-240V as it should be.[…]
Here in the USA it is common to see large commercial buildings with 480V 3-phase power, fed by a delta-wye transformer (delta-star). Since any leg of the three-phase to neutral is 277V you see 277V fluorescent building lighting used. Take the single-leg voltage, multiply by the square root of three (1.732), that gets you the voltage of the three phase system. Thus 277V single-phase yields 480V for the system. 120/240V single-phase is usually supplied by other transformers, going from the 480V between any two hot legs.
On the neighborhood level, one leg of the incoming high-voltage three phase is used to provide the single phase to individual houses, which may be split (center-tapped winding) for two hot legs and a neutral. To work backwards, with 160V incoming, times 1.732 yields 277V. It is expected in the UK to be 240V from hot to neutral, 480V between hots.
Without sitting down and doing annoying diagrams while I'm making supper, going by the numbers alone, it seems pretty clear there is a mis-wired transformer somewhere feeding the neighborhood high-voltage lines, likely at the step-down distribution station being fed by the really-high voltage transmission lines from the generation-level power grid. Actually there are probably three large single-phase transformers hooked together in the needed configurations, or at least they should be properly hooked up but are not.
And this is dangerous, as it is not at the voltages the transformers and other equipment wants. And induction motors may try to run at the lower voltage but will want more current, will yield more heat, besides other problems. This needs to be fixed, soon.
Interesting. Benson is my nearest observation station (according to bbc.co.uk/weather). One or two nights ago it showed -17°C.
(I wondered if that was actually a mistake, but maybe not).
As I type this it is -7°C.
It's OK, part 2. The BBC has this report from yesterday. Slightly misleading headline, though.
I look forward (with every expectation of disappointment) to similar cautioning comment next time it's "the warmest/wettest xxx for xx years".
I am so pleased to hear that it is warm in Canada. Thank you UK Met office.
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weathermaps/?ref=topnav_homepage_weathermaps
Now — what was that again? It is -13C outside today January 8 2010 18:37 local time. Normally at this time of year it is between -3 and + 3 depending on cold year / warm year. BRRRRHHHH!!!!
Just south of Lake Simcoe 100KM north of Toronto/Lake Ontario Shores.
Pass my regards to your forecasters. I am not saying they are lying — just that maybe they are not telling the truth.
Well the normally warmist Grauniad (sorry, that's The Guardian, a UK newspaper, worthy, well intentioned and….annoying…) has an interesting story about snow, featuring (gasp!) The Little Ice Age:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/jan/07/brief-history-snow-britain-charlie-english
Little Ice Age? In a warmist publication? Surely some mistake! But no, it's all there, and stated as fact, not "the alleged Little Ice Age".
However, don't worry, the warmist flag is flown by one Deberah Orr in the same edition. I don't know her, but she comes over as a "Glenda Slagg" figure (sorry, you need to have read "Private Eye" magazine to get that reference)…
This is the bit that got me (ah, this bit is not in the online version, so I will have to transcribe…apologies for any errors, mine:
[she is going on about tabloid headlines that say the current cold weather proves AGW is rubbish – she disagrees violently…]
Why can't people understand that hotter air barrels about faster, crashing about the atmosphere like a bull in a giant china shop? Or that melted ice in one place is just extra water looking for a new home in another. These are such simple concepts, so basic irrefutable, so plainly guaranteed to make the weather more unpredictable and extreme…
So that's all very scientific then, isn't it!?
I would like to believe that this is some sort of self-parody, but I don't think she is capable of such a thing. I think she actually believes this twaddle.
Email sent to SBS Television "the" Australian global warming channel,
snigger.
Look, a big bouquet for the lack of reporting on the climategate emails, but a slam dunk brickbat for your reporting constantly, ad nauseum about the coolish northern hemisphere winter. Your reporting is lacking in balance and you are letting the AGW side down badly. You need to practice self censorship. I can hardly believe how SBS news readers, Janice Peterson in particular, can keep a straight face when delvering us snow and ice, night after night after night.
A frustrated SBS watcher.
Paul Vaughan
Laughed out loud when I heard his response:
0:22 "Well, let's put my bonus to one side for the moment and let's concentrate on the fine job that the Met Office have done in forecasting the current weather situation." 0:32
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/the_daily_politics/8443687.stm
English Phil
Retired Dave (08:29:13) :
'Which is why a UK passport says Great Britain and Northern Ireland on the front.'
Actually they say 'EUROPEAN UNION' above 'United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland'.
For some years, our wonderful old stiff-backed blue passports, of which we were proud, have been superseded by flimsy, purple booklets, worthy of a province of the EUSSR.
And since the Constitution was agreed by all, 27 is it now?, governments, but by the people of not a single nation except Ireland – who were, ironically also the only people to be given the chance to reject it, which they did – that is exactly what we have become; a province.
royfomr
OK, it took me a while, but the evidence for MMGW is now overwhelming!
My question is, how do we persuade world governments that we need to rein in our CO2 emissions?
Would more generous funding to academia help or should our funding be better focussed on re-siting our weather monitoring stations to more urban areas?
How do we stop this selfish practise of Sodium Chloridation of the UK road network which directly threatens the survival of slugs and snails?
Don't get me wrong, I am grateful that the powers that be have, thanks to our excellent Met Office, have granted sanctuary for all the areas surrounding minor roads and pavements.
I shall be tackling Peter Stott by letter on these points. We cannot allow 'scientists' like Stott to get away with blatant lies like this. It's indefensible. Barry Foster
So you should Barry. Ask him a couple of questions about this quote from last year while you are at it:
"Despite the cold winter this year, the trend to milder and wetter winters is expected to continue, with snow and frost becoming less of a feature in the future. The famously cold winter of 1962/63 is now expected to occur about once every 1,000 years or more, compared with approximately every 100 to 200 years before 1850."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/5034953/Snow-and-hail-to-end-spell-of-sunny-spring-weather.html
crosspatch (11:46:56) :
The "drought" is not due to lack of rainfall. It is due to judges sitting on benches ruling that water can not be stored or pumped from one location to another.
Ah, but they managed to pump a million acre feet from the Trinity Reservoir out of the basin into the Whiskeytown Reservoir, to send south to the Sacramento Valley. And they still complain about drought after stealing the Trinity Water.
TJA (13:37:00) :
LOL, good one TJA. 🙂
Here's a link to a Cool Tools review of a cheap, lightweight, compact, efficient, low-impact wood- or alcohol (Sterno)-burning camp stove called the Littlbug. (No "e".) have one and it's very good:
I am an engineer with a very basic understanding of the laws of physics.
I am assured by both sides of this climate/CO2/Trade/Cap/Bung/Con/Mug/enough….. fiasco that some circa 10k years ago there was at least one mile of ice covering the part of the UK where I presently reside, which is right slap bang in the middle.
So, just for a minute look straight up above you and imagine ONE MILE OF SOLID ICE!
Take a while, let it sink in! ONE MILE OF SOLID, not your recently invented "rubbish ice" (much that I like that type in my g&t)) but big proper, beefy, strong, landscape forming ICE!
Now that ice above you has gone, melted and has gone to form what is now the wonderful, beautiful UK (without the present trash of politicians) that we are privileged to live in.
When somebody can fully explain the mechanics that shifted ONE MILE OF SOLID ICE from over my head I will pay attention!
And most importantly when they put forward the legislation that ensures that I will never ever have ONE MILE OF ICE over my head ever again I really will be impressed!
I am more and more convinced that we have amongst us a new species – homo superbus – Arrogant man – a species that professes to be able to control the temperature of this planet by legislation! WALOB! Brits will translate
Mike McMillan
M. Simon (09:26:47) :
So was Jesus. I'm Scots/German/Dutch, but I see Michael Jackson.
Remember, weather isn't climate.
Addition to my last on Peter Stott.
He explains how he knows his records are accurate here:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/explained/explained5.html
Not sure that they do any quality assurance on the supercomputer forecasting.
wmsc
In the 'odd results of weather category', a rare, mainly North American event occurs in the UK: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/6950788/Snow-stories-rare-self-rolling-snow-balls-found-in-UK.html
Seems the UK doesn't get these snow bales…
In the 'it is even colder here category', North Dakota was reporting -14F (-26C) without the wind at about 0400UTC.
gtrip
Neil Crafter (13:52:03) :
I wonder when weather forecasters first started covering themselves by using percentages? As we know if you forecast there is a 30% chance of rain, and it doesn't rain, then well it was in the 70% and the forecasters were right. If it does rain, well that was in the 30% and they are right also! They can never be wrong.
Here in the U.S., a forecast is for a specific area. A 30% chance of rain means that 30 percent of that forecast area WILL get rain.
If you look at this larger image you can see that Northern Ireland does indeed have snow!
You can see the snow covered ground through the breaks in the clouds easier in the large image linked above.
photon without a Higgs
umm, ya, global warming, right
Big Brother (Al)
War is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength, snow is global warming.
Luboš Motl (09:38:13) :
There isn't any green vegetation in the GISS adjusted photo I was just sent. It's just all sand with polar bear skeletons and empty wallets laying about.
where's the heat Peter?
climate is cooling
do you think anyone is really listening to you global warming folk?
it must be awfully cold under the bridge for the trolls.
fingers too numb to type
Looks like dry ice to me 😉
Could or are?
"The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't."
Hahahahahahaha.
Warmer Is Better. Go outside and think about it.
Richard C
The greatest revelation from these photos are the distinct UHI effects and how surprisingly local they are. One can clearly see a break between Leeds and Bradford even though there is little clear land between them. It was intriguing looking through the greyer spots to locate quite small towns, showing that virtually any urban Met. station is affected by UHI. How anyone could attempt to compensate for this is beyond my comprehension.
Molon Labe(@rokshox)
Maybe the Thames will freeze. An ice fair on the frozen Thames would just be gobsmackingly awesome.
Stephen Wilde,
Very interesting model, but I have some questions:
"The SABER satellite results appear to show that the rate of loss of energy to space is greater when the sun is active and less when the sun is less active."
If the rate of loss of energy to space is less under an active sun, does that imply a global warming? If so, how do you reconcile that with observations that a quieter sun leads to cooling? Or are you saying that only applies to the polar lattitudes and that mid lattitudes will be cooling?
Finally, is this your own model or someone elses?
Andrew Harding(@andrewmharding)
We are stuck in southern Spain because our flight on Wedneday was cancelled due to Newcastle airport being closed. Hopefully we will be able to fly tomorrow.
The reason that Newcastle airport was closed? The Met Office propoganda division (a department that Goebells would have been proud of) informed us that our winter would be mild and wet. During recession aiport and local council budgets have to be carefully managed so why buy salt, grit and expensive snow clearing equipment if it is not necessary?
I am sure that many people in the UK had a miserable summer holiday because they booked it on the basis of the "barbecue summer" the Met Office propogandists promised us. Now we are having a miserable winter as well!
On the Met Office website they are telling us that although the UK is cold other parts of the world are experiencing the effects of global warming. Well it isn't the case in southern Spain. The weather has changed from stormy and wet with significantly higher rainfall than normal to very cold. The temperature yesterday morning was 5 deg C.
I do not believe anything the Met Office says any more. When supposed eminent scientists state that "climate change denial should be made a criminal offence" common sense tells me that something is wrong somewhere. Didn't they say similar things about witchcraft 400 years ago?
Bulldust
I can second the axing of flights to and from Heathrow yesterday. I just got home (to Perth) but not via London as initially intended. Friday morning I went to the BA counter in Barcelona Airport only to be told nothing was coming in or out of London (any airport).
Luckily I got a direct flight from Barcelona to Singapore with Singapore Airlines and then connected with my previously booked Qantas flight. Of course my bag is styill in Singapore… I am told that will reach me tomorrow 🙂
Still snowing in Andorra according to my folks.
Having just posted a comment on this excellent blog, the top item on recent news was an item from Directgov. I have copied and pasted some of the text below to demonstrate how the powers that be treat us like idiots with this moronic, patronising rubbish. My blood pressure must be through the roof!
With temperatures so low, to keep safe and warm the Department of Health recommends you:
•	keep curtains drawn and doors closed to block out draughts
•	have regular hot drinks and at least one hot meal a day if possible – eating regularly helps keep energy levels up during winter
•	wear several light layers of warm clothes (rather than one chunky layer)
•	keep as active as possible
•	wrap up warm if you do need to go outside
You should also keep your home at the recommended temperature of 18 to 21 degrees Celsius (64 to 70 degrees Fahrenheit).
If you can't heat all the rooms you use, heat the living room during the day and the bedroom just before you go to bed.
Follow the links below for more advice about keeping warm and healthy during cold weather
@Andrew Harding
"… The weather has changed from stormy and wet with significantly higher rainfall than normal to very cold. The temperature yesterday morning was 5 deg C.
I do not believe anything the Met Office says any more…"
The Met Office couldn't care less. Just so long as you keep paying your taxes to keep them in the vast sums of money that they are accustomed to.
May I suggest that you CONTACT YOUR MP to complain about this waste of your taxpayers' money? This is a useful website – http://www.writetothem.com/
If people just complain on WUWT nothing will change…..
Patrick Davis
That's a truely stunning image. When I lived in the UK back in the 1970's, I lived nearish London, and directly below the major flight paths for London airports, as well as Biggin Hill (Hardly used then). I always used to wonder how the ground would look from an aircraft at that altitude when I watched plane crisscross the sky leaving condtrails. I actually got to experience that in 2003, not over the UK, but on my way to JFK airport from LAX. I was sat just behind the wings (100 passengers on a 747 400 Longreach??? I had a whole row of sets to myself) and could see condtrails forming behind the engines as I looked backwards out of the window. Down below looked cold, like in this image and the one posted before over the US, and sure enough it was. Two feet of snow fell my first night in New York, ice everywhere. Up the Empire State building was even colder. Then down on the gound I fell A over T in a snow pile outside Macy's on 5th Ave. Covered from head to foot in snow, I did receive an odd look from the security gaurd when I asked him, in well spoken English, where the perfume counter was.
But what struck me, as I rode in from Long Island into Penn St, was that all the points in the trackwork had burning oil baths under each of the points. Shame this technology isn't installed in British railways (Given that we practically invented it anyway).
climategatestuff
MET office Deja Vu:
http://blackswhitewash.com/2010/01/09/met-office-deja-vu/
E.M.Smith(@chiefio)
But it's a warm snow 😉
Reply: I think you mean "It's a dry snow". ~ctm
You wanted to say 416V between hots.
Another difference is that in the USA 220V is from hot to hot and at 60 Hz (50Hz in Europe). Used to create problems with early VCR. And might be a problem with safety, when one uses european 230V-appliances on US 220V.
Further to what Dodgy Geezer says wrt complaining to MPs' the MPs' are actually part of the problem. Our government together with all world governments has a vested interest in man-made climate change. Why? So they can tax us more with the justification that they are protecting the planet and most people will pay the increased taxes without complaining because it assuages their collectivve guilty consciences for driving their car or taking a non-essential flight.
It needs more Climategates to happen and more scientists to come forward with alternative views.
"Russtovich (16:56:16) :
LOL, good one TJA. :)"
So a teacher explaining an electronic calculator would first ask his pupils to change 40°C into °F, and then change 1Ǻ into inches next.
" Allan M (14:43:31) :
'Alexej Buergin (10:03:03) :
The real reason is of course that in 1801 Wales was considered to be a part of England.
And in 1805 it still was England that "expects that every man will do his duty".
But today it would be logical to add a little dragon to the Union Jack.
Hilary Ostrov (aka hro001)(@hro001)
And in other news …
On P. FP19, of Jan. 9 edition of Canada's National Post one finds the following:
New Univeristy of Waterloo study finds CFCs, not CO2, to be the cause of recent global warming The ozone hole did it
http://digital.nationalpost.com/epaper/showlink.aspx?bookmarkid=XURZQG1RDGL6
"Climate change is real and manmade, explains University of Waterloo professor Qin-Bin Lu, author of a new study published this week in the peer-reviewed journal, Physics Reports.
"The man-made cause of global warming is not CO2 and the international treaty that saved the planet is not the Kyoto Protocol. Rather, says Dr. Lu, the true cause of global warming has been CFCs, or chlorofluorocarbons, a class of chemicals that was once widely used in aerosol cans and refrigeration. As CFC use soared in the decades following World War II, he explains, the globe started warming dramatically. The world stopped warming dramatically when government regulations began to phase out CFCs, an event that culminated in the western world in 2000. Almost immediately afterward, in 2002, the world began to cool as CFCs started to diminish in our atmosphere.
"The heroes in this tale are environmentalists and world leaders such as U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, who got together to sign the Montreal Protocol of 1987. This protocol was designed to stop the Ozone Hole from developing above the Antarctic by ridding the planet of ozone-destroying CFCs. Little did either the environmentalists or the world leaders recognize at the time, explains Professor Lu, that their actions would also eliminate the threat to the planet of global warming.
Dr Lu's study is now published and the reviews he has received to date have been favourable but he may find himself writing a postscript in three year's time. Like hundreds of other scientists around the world, Dr. Lu may have unwittingly relied on invalid data for a portion of his study. His real-time satellite and balloon data, which shows CO2 does not cause climate change, is not in dispute. Not so for the historical temperature data, on which he based his estimates of how much global cooling we face as Earth's temperatures return to their historic pre-CFC levels. "My temperature data comes from the UK – the Climate Research Unit at East Anglia University," he reveals when questioned.
And in same edition, P. A14 has a pictures and numbers spread of "Severe Winter Weather"
http://digital.nationalpost.com/epaper/showlink.aspx?bookmarkid=5ZIJ9A0H3PH8
7 pics in all from various points around the globe. All except 1 show snow, ice etc. The exception is … Israel … Caption is "29 C Expected temperature in southern Israel. Unseasonally warm weather has Israelis heading to the beach".
I can well imagine the next round of Alarmist "arguments". No doubt it will be something along the lines of …
"No, no, no! All those pictures are just weather events. Except the one of 'the Zionist entity' which, thanks to a Mossad plot, has stolen all the warming (ooops 'climate change') from the rest of the world. IPCC Chair insists the world must act *now* because all those traders who were 'hoping to take advantage of climate change' counted a lot of carbon chicks before they were hatched!"
http://hro001.wordpress.com/2010/01/09/traders-counted-carbon-chicks-before-they-were-hatched/
tallbloke(@tallbloke)
Richard C (00:31:25) :
The greatest revelation from these photos are the distinct UHI effects and how surprisingly local they are. One can clearly see a break between Leeds and Bradford even though there is little clear land between them.
To some extent this greying of cities in the image will be an artifact of shadows and roof angles etc.
Mr. Alex
"D. Ch. (08:11:12) :
Ice Cap is apparently 19 miles from Iceland's north-western coastline:
http://daltonsminima.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/hafis_20100108_1216.png?w=510&h=351
Sorry, thought I saw Iceland!
Pictures like this and this of the US:
http://www.foxnews.com/slideshow/scitech/2010/01/08/spaceshots-weeks-best-photos-universe?slide=39
really put in perspective our "control" over Earth's temperature.
All you need to do is compare this to the idea of painting city rooftops white.
The "Chief Forecaster" at the UK Met Office has just been interviewed on BBC News. He said that the Met Office Seasonal Forecasts (which do still appear on their site) were only as good (!) as the daily forecasts were 40 years ago, and that the media had been mischief making (!) in making such an issue of last year's "barbecue summer" or this winter's "small probability of cold weather".
He reckons that it will be some years before the seasonal forecasts approach the quality of today's short term forecasts (which, for anyone in the UK, are relatively easy to have a good stab at themselves simply by looking at the precipitation radar.
Met Office slowly moving backwards?
Andrew Harding,
"So they can tax us more with the justification that they are protecting the planet"
If only that all there was to it – a bit more tax on fuel, a bit more tax on cars. Unfortunately it goes far beyond a means to raise tax.
Does the wholesale replacement of coal fired power stations by wind power generate more tax revenue? Does the projected increase in the average home (UK) fuel bill from £1000pa to £5000pa help the governments finances? Do the job losses from companies like Corus that migrate to India add to the tax revenue?
The government knows that for each percentage point of CO2 they eliminate from the economy, the deeper they are digging the country into a fiscal hole. Knowing what they know, why do they act in this way? I don't know, but it ain't for tax revenues, that's for sure.
MikeE (14:47:49) :
Yes, and bring a swimsuit. Hope it will be a nice trip!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34780726/ns/weather/
"On Friday the agency reported that the Baltic Sea was covered by ice that was nearly 16 inches thick in places. "
Curious satellite images show no such thing.
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/amsre.html
On a lighter note, rats smarter than humans?
"In Berlin, even the mice were desperate to escape the cold: Swarms of them have taken over the Bundestag, the country's parliament, the daily newspaper Bild reported. But more than 100 people jumped into a hole in the ice at Oranke Lake as part of an annual Berlin ice-swimming celebration."
Old PI
Don't know if anyone else has mentioned it, but Ireland hasn't totally escaped the snow. The mountains are frosted with snow, even though the low-lying areas are still green. I wouldn't say it's terribly warm over there.
No. Here in the US the voltages for houses are supplied with single-phase transformers with center-tapped secondary windings to get 120V hot to neutral, 240V between hots. If you are seeing 240V hot to neutral and 416V between hots, then a three-phase transformer arrangement with a wye-configuration secondary is being used, your hots are two legs of the three phases. That would be a complicated arrangement for house-level distribution, with the loads on the phases being likely unbalanced, thus I would not expect it to be used.
Nah. Check the standard voltages. The US is standardized at 120V with a +/- 5% tolerance, has been for awhile. Old equipment might have a nameplate voltage given of 115V or 110V, but a good chunk of that was due to expected voltage losses in transmission and looser tolerances. At the low end you would get 228V in the US between hots. In the UK standard voltage is 230V with a +/- 10% tolerance, so 253V on the high end, which matches well with the US high of 252V. Thus UK (European) 230V equipment shouldn't have a problem besides the frequency, except…
It is standard US practice for grounds and neutrals to be hooked together in the main panel, and only there. Technically the first is the grounding conductor while the other is the grounded conductor. Return voltage is expected on the neutrals, the grounds are only for electrical faults. From there they are connected to the neutral coming from the transformer. Whatever grounding systems are at a house, are for emergency backup if the neutral to the transformer is lost. Otherwise, with the neutral connections in the main panel, the 120V appliances would suddenly see close to 240V or less (all loads on one leg with all loads on the other becoming a series circuit dividing up the 240V).
If the particular European equipment is somehow referencing the ground for a "zero voltage" state, as might be seen in electronics, on a straight hookup it would see 120V to ground where it expected nothing from neutral to ground, which could be an issue. Thus a step-up transformer operating from 120V, with a lead from both primary and secondary windings connected together for a true neutral, would be preferred.
"Glenn (11:39:11) :
Somebody is confusing the Baltic with the Bay of Bothnia which did freeze over completely on Friday, about a month earlier than has been usual in recent years:
Current ice-chart here:
http://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/sstcolor.pdf
People assembling for latest British protest against global warming . . . .
http://tinypic.com/r/11w7xg4/6