text:
New York insurance regulator to probe Optum algorithm for racial bias
by Robert King |
New York regulators are investigating whether an algorithm provided by Optum has a racial bias against black people. (UnitedHealth Group)
New York state officials launched an investigation into whether Optum's algorithm used by hospitals to identify patients with chronic diseases has a racial bias.
New York's Financial Services and Health departments sent a letter to UnitedHealth Group's CEO David Wichmann Friday regarding an algorithm developed by Optum, The Wall Street Journal reported. The investigation is in response to a study published in the journal Science that found an algorithm used to assign risk scores gave the same risk level to blacks as white patients that were healthier.
"These discriminatory results, whether intentional or not, are unacceptable and are unlawful in New York," according to the letter.
RELATED: UnitedHealthcare ramping up investments in virtual visits, home monitoring for 6M Medicare Advantage members
The study said that the algorithm reduces the number of black patients that need extra care by half.
"Bias occurs because the algorithm uses health costs as a proxy for health needs," the study said. "Less money is spent on black patients who have the same level of need, and the algorithm thus falsely concludes that black patients are healthier than equally sick white patients."
The algorithm needs to be changed so it doesn't use cost as proxy for healthcare need and would eliminate the racial bias in predicting who needs extra care, the authors added.
"By relying on historic spending to triage and diagnose current patients, your algorithm appears to inherently prioritize white patients who have had greater access to healthcare than black patients," the letter said.
New York's regulators called for Optum to stop using the algorithm or provide evidence to contradict the study's claims.
UnitedHealth Group said in a statement on the study's release that it appreciates the "researchers' work and validation that the cost model was highly predictive of cost."
RELATED: UnitedHealth Group execs talk rebate rule, DaVita acquisition in Q2 call
But the algorithm is "just one of many data elements intended to be used to select patients for clinical engagement programs, including most importantly, the doctor's expertise and knowledge of his or her patient's individual needs."
Industry analyst Cynthia Burghard, who has conducted research on information technology and reviewed the Science study, said, "The big question is, is it the tool or how the tool was used?"
Burghard, research director for value-based healthcare IT transformation strategies at IDC Health Insights, said the study looked at one academic medical center's use of the algorithm. Industry best practices for using this type of algorithm to dictate who gets care management often involves using multiple pieces of information, not just health costs.
"There is a lot of nuance to people's health that is not reflected in cost," she said, noting that the Optum algorithm is not artificial intelligence but a rules-based system.
Using algorithms to look at a cohort of patients is a common practice in healthcare, with companies like IBM offering these technology tools, Burghard noted. If hospitals and health systems stopped using these tools it would be "throwing the baby out with the bathwater," she said.
She added the study highlights the importance of involving clinicians in technology purchasing decisions when the technology will be used to support clinical decisions.
Optum, the provider services subsidiary, has been a major revenue driver for UnitedHealth.
The group posted $5 billion in profits in the third quarter of 2019 driven largely by strong performance by Optum, which posted double-digit growth for both revenue and earnings in the quarter.
Heather Landi contributed additional reporting to this story.
Healthcare Costs Bundled Payments Data Data Analytics UnitedHealth Optum
Reporter for Fierce Health Payer
https://mobile.twitter.com/rking_19


Olympiakos' Greek midfielder Kostas Fortounis (L) celebrates after scoring during their UEFA Europa league match against AC Milan at the Karaiskaki stadium in Piraeus on Thursday night.
Olympiakos dumped AC Milan out of the Europa League yesterday after beating the seven-time European champions 3-1 in a pulsating clash in Greece, while Eintracht Frankfurt fans ran riot during the German side's win at Lazio and Celtic made the knockout stages despite losing to Salzburg at Parkhead.
Captain Kostas Fortounis' penalty nine minutes from time saw the Greeks move into second place in Group F ahead of Gennaro Gattuso's Milan, who thought they had squeaked through when Cristian Zapata had pulled a goal back less than two minutes after putting the hosts 2-0 up with a comical own goal. Olympiakos finished level on 10 points with Milan but qualified ahead of the Italians thanks to their superior goal difference following Milan's 3-1 win over the Greeks in October, and they end the group stage two points behind group winners Real Betis, who drew 0-0 at Dudelange.
"It's a bitter night... We shouldn't have conceded the first goal and it all went south from then on. We should have done better in the group and come to Greece already qualified," said Milan captain Ignazio Abate, who gave away the decisive spot-kick by fouling former Roma player Vasilis Torosidis.
However, away fans charged the pitch after Joaquin Correa's 56th-minute opener, and subsequently threw smoke bombs and flares at both Lazio fans and the police. Last year's runners-up Marseille finished bottom of that group after losing 3-1 at home to Apollon Limassol and ending the group stage with just a single point. Celtic looked to be following Old Firm rivals Rangers out of the competition after Steven Gerrard's side fell 1-0 at Rapid Vienna earlier on Thursday, but Tore Reginiussen's equaliser four minutes from time for Rosenborg at RB Leipzig allowed Brendan Rodgers' side to qualify second from Group B, two points ahead of the Bundesliga outfit.
Second-half goals from Munas Dabbur and Fredrik Gulbrandsen meant that Salzburg topped the group with a 100 % record after a 2-1 win, while Olivier Ntcham's stoppage-time penalty meant nothing for the result nor the final standings.
"There will be things from a performance perspective that we can go away and look at," said Rodgers.
The Austrians are through to the knockout stages, level on 10 points with group winners Villarreal.Chelsea, who had already won Group L, looked to be on their way to a perfect sixth win from six, but could only scrape a point at eliminated Vidi thanks to substitute Olivier Giroud's late free-kick, after an Ethan Ampadu own goal and Loic Nego's sumptuous volley had put the hosts a goal ahead.


Off-Road Ethiopia has been established by tourism professional that has immense and long years of experience in providing excellent & reliable ground tour services. As a cultural and natural specialist we take you deep in to the social and economic practice of tribes and their ways of life. Real marriage, funeral, food processing and preparing, social gatherings, housekeeping and other daily activities of the local people can tangible be experienced with our tours. We would make the dream of trekking in the off-the beaten truck reality to the scenic mountains of the Ethiopia. Adventure tours to the Afar desert can uniquely be arranged.


Do you know that the most expensive Chad Durbin Baseball Rookie Card (2002 Select Chad Durbin Rookie/Auto PSA 8 NM - MT...Nice!!!) was sold on eBay in July 2013 for $7.01 while the cheapest Rookie Card (2000 Bowman Draft Picks CHAD DURBIN AUTOGRAPHS #BDPA27 AUTOGRAPH RC Insert Card) changed hands for only $0.99 in December 2011? The month with the most cards sold (2) was July 2013 with an average selling price of $7.01 for a Baseball Card of Chad Durbin. Sold items reached their highest average selling price in July 2013 with $7.01 and the month that saw the lowest prices with $7.01 was July 2013. In average, a Rookie Card from Chad Durbin is valued with $2.64.
Here's a list of Baseball Rookie Cards of Chad Durbin that are currently for sale on eBay and some other online shops.


Our mission is to be the best suppliers of raw materials, by offering our customers exceptional services backed by innovative and quality products.
Our vision is to be a globally competitive supplying channel, known for qualitative products, great value and exceptional customer service.
To provide consistent, high quality products.
Responsibility of being a good corporate citizen.
Insisting an environment that optimizes employee contribution to the achievement of company objectives.
Guaranteeing highest ethical standards, honesty and integrity while conducting business.
Offering a distinct advantage to our suppliers and customers, thus maintaining their trust and confidence.
Never compromising on optimal levels of quality, price, innovation and teamwork.
Trigon Gulf has its branch offices in Moscow (Russia), Kiev (Ukraine), Shanghai (China), and its affiliates in Singapore and Pune (India).
The Company also has marked its presence by supplying its products to various countries like India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, China, Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, Turkey, Egypt, UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Kenya, Nigeria, Sudan, South Africa, etc.


text:
#ifndef RADIUMENGINE_CAMERASTORAGE_HPP
#define RADIUMENGINE_CAMERASTORAGE_HPP

#include <Engine/RaEngine.hpp>

namespace Ra {
namespace Engine {
class Camera;
} // namespace Engine
} // namespace Ra

namespace Ra {
namespace Engine {

/**
 * Interface providing functions to access and store cameras in
 * an implementation-defined way.
 */
class RA_ENGINE_API CameraStorage
{
    // Radium-V2 : make camera storage compatible with range for ...
  public:
    CameraStorage() = default;

    /// Destructor
    virtual ~CameraStorage() = default;

    // Redefine container classic functions.

    /// Returns the container size.
    virtual size_t size() const = 0;

    /// Add a Camera to the container.
    virtual void add( Camera* cam ) = 0;

    /// Remove a Camera from the container.
    virtual void remove( Camera* cam ) = 0;

    /// Clear the container.
    virtual void clear() = 0;

    /// Access the container.
    virtual Camera* operator[]( unsigned int n ) = 0;
};

} // namespace Engine
} // namespace Ra

#endif // RADIUMENGINE_CAMERASTORAGE_HPP

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
The Rolling Stones and Stephen Stills in Amsterdam 1970
8x10 / $400 11x14 / $800 16x20 / $1500 20x24 / $2000 30x40 / $3500 40x60 / $7000
8x10 - $400 11x14 - $800 16x20 - $1,500 20x24 - $2,000 30x40 - $3,500 40x60 - $7,000
Henry spent four months in England living at Stephen Stills' house. One day, Stephen announced they were all flying to Amsterdam to see Chip Monck, The Rolling Stones stage manager. As they were standing on stage during the concert, Mick motioned Stephen to sit in on the piano, which Henry was standing next to. Here is that moment.
Keith Richards, Patience Please, Rolling Stones, American Tour 1972
Rolling Stones, The End of the Banquet, London, 1968
Keith Richards, Coors, Rolling Stones U.S. Tour 1972
Keith Richards, Rolling Stones, Swimming Pool, Villa Nellcôte, France
Michael Cooper
Keith Richards, Anita Pallenberg, Gram Parsons
Tina Turner & Mick Jagger, Philadelphia, 1985
Stones in Field with Cows, Beggars Banquet, Swarkestone Hall Pavilion, Derbyshire, England, 1968
Gered Mankowitz
The Rolling Stones, Tin Pan Alley, 1963
The Rolling Stones, San Antonio, TX, 1975
Ken Regan
The Rolling Stones, New York City, 1977
The Rolling Stones, London, 1963
The Rolling Stones, Ready Steady Go!, London, 1966
Barrie Wentzell
The Rolling Stones, Beggars Banquet, Kensington, London, 1968
The Rolling Stones, Hyde Park, London, 1969
The Rolling Stones, High Tides
Keith Richards, Midwest Airport 1979
Keith Richards, Midwest Airport, 1979
Keith Richards, Rivers Flow, 1993
Stephanie Pfriender Stylander
Keith Richards, The Third Eye, 1993
Keith Richards 1978
The Rolling Stone, Keith Richards, 1978
Keith Richards, Rolling Stones, 1972
Keith Richards Performing
Keith Richards, The Rolling Stones, Ready Steady Go!, London, 1966
The Rolling Stones, Rotterdam, Netherlands, 1973
Barry Schultz
The Rolling Stones, on stage, 1969
The Rolling Stones, Inglewood, CA 1969
Rolling Stones, Los Angeles, CA, 1971
Rolling Stones, Laurel Canyon, Los Angeles, CA 1969
Jay Dickman
Rolling Stones, Hyde Park, 1969
The Rolling Stones, Los Angeles, CA, 1973
Jimi Hendrix and Mick Taylor, New York, NY 1969
Keith Richards, Mick Taylor and Sam Cutler, Los Angeles, CA 1969
Neil Young, 'White Falcon,' Balboa Stadium, San Diego, CA 1969
Jimi Hendrix playing The Star Spangled Banner at Woodstock, NY 1969
Joni Mitchell, David Crosby, and Eric Clapton, Laurel Canyon, 1968
Joni Mitchell, Hills of Laurel Canyon, CA 1970
Jackson Browne, Los Angeles, CA, 1971

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Sporty lady Ira would like to meet you tonight!
Sporty lady Ira would like to meet you tonight! You'll get the best emotions out of date with this girl. She knows everything about pleasure and her body is heavenly good.


Fancy Bingo have an awesome promotion just for you. Are you or your partner always running late? Has your watch seen better days? This online bingo site is going to remedy that right now by giving you a chance to chance to win this fantastic prize.
The promotion runs until the 14th September. You can purchase tickets in the lobby, just click on the Twice as Nice tab, the tickets cost 25p each, with a maximum of 96 tickets per player. So why not spread the cost and buy a few every now and then. The 75 ball bingo game, Twice as Nice will be played on Thursday the 14th September at 10pm.
The winner will receive a pair of Rose Gold His and Her watches from Binlun. They are worth £300, but you can opt for the cash alternative. It is time to ring the changes, now you can always be on time with these lovely watches.
To take part in this promotion, you have to be a funded player, so pop on over to Fancy Bingo today and register your details.
Join the Rich Dwarf Jackpot game every Sunday, where the minimum jackpot up for grabs is £500. Tickets are free to members who have funded in the previous four days. Play the Mad Man Money game every Thursday, for a prize pot of £500, tickets cost just 10p. Check out their promotions page to see lots of other offers.
Fancy Bingo are giving all new players a 300% match deposit bonus up to the maximum of £60, the minimum deposit required is just £5. How do you fancy that?


Would you believe a valet operator telling you they had no paid damage claims in a year? What about two years?
When I began my career in parking, the first facility I worked was an 800-space, all-valet location in downtown Houston that operated 24/7/365. The operation consisted of approximately 40 valets, two cashiers, and four supervisors. Oh, and an average of approximately four incident claims per day in the beginning. Filling out incident paperwork and speaking with insurance representatives consumed more than a third of the day. Something had to change.
Paperwork, previously done by the manager, was moved to the supervisors' desks. The supervisors quickly learned how time-consuming filling out forms and verifying information was. That, coupled with increased pressure on the valet staff to slow down, use more cautious driving skills, and provide great customer service resulted in reported claims falling to approximately one or two per week during the next several months, and then to approximately one per month within a year. When I began working in the Texas Medical Center a little more than eight years ago, the same philosophy and training was implemented.
About two years ago, I was filling out an incident claim for a supposed missing cell phone from a customer's vehicle and I realized that it had been about a year since any damage claim was paid. I dug further to ensure the findings were accurate, which they were. Astonished at the findings, I told the valet supervisor of one of the locations. He was equally surprised. We used the information to encourage the valet staff to continue the trend and surpass the 365-day mark with no paid damage claims. The customer's phone was located in the building's lost & found. The goal was met and the staff was provided a client-approved incentive for such a great job. Another 365 days have passed with no paid damage claims at two of our locations, due to the training, awesome care, and control exercised by the supervisor staff and entire valet team.
Jerry Mauboules is an area manager with Winpark.


text:
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These are the packages I have loaded:
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\usepackage{natbib}
\usepackage{har2nat}
\usepackage{booktabs}
\usepackage{array}
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\usepackage{subcaption}

and I am not sure how to fix it. Please can someone advise.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Do you Want to Access Facebook on Blocked Network?
If Yes, then read this post carefully. Here today I am going to mention top list of Facebook proxy sites that work in 2014 to access blocked Facebook or URL Blocked. Well Proxy sites help you to bypass these passages and will open your Facebook or any account at Internet easily via Hiding IP addresses or use any other location IP's. Now a days all these Social Bookmarking Sites include Facebook, Google +, Twitter are blocked at your near by schools and office, So that's why proxy sites are must in order to open them illegally. One of popular network i.e Facebook, In case of blocked access to Facebook we can try Facebook login proxy sites list. In my notice, there are some of the proxies might be died, expired in time or some proxies doesn't working well for you when you login in, therefore here I bring you top 3 Facebook proxy sites of 2014- 100% Working etc. Note- Before entering username and password make sure that the website is reliable and doesn't store any personal details of yours.
Also SEE- How To Access Blocked Social Networking Sites?
What are Facebook Proxy Sites?
Facebook Proxy Sites are those which would help you to access or login Facebook at Blocked Network's. Many times when you are trying to use Internet at the public Wi-Fi network or your office network, then you are not able to get through it. This is all because of admin of the public network places due to security reasons. But if you have the access to Facebook Proxy Login websites, then you can easily get through these blocked sites without any doubt.
Facebook Proxy is a especially dedicated for the aim of unblocking Facebook. This website allows you open Facebook from anywhere. While you are at office, school or any other organization this site will help you to access you Facebook account in a very simple manner. Just on the Home screen enter the Facebook URL and click "Go" , hence It will open the Facebook homepage for you.
Proxymice is a Facebook proxy site created by a group of professional web developers specially for those who wish to cant access Facebook normally. As compared to other fast browsing sites list, Give it a try and you wont be regret. They have provided a link in their sidebar that reads "Start Facebook Proxy" so that users can directly move to Facebook etc. Its so simple to use this.
With the help of this proxy websites you will be able to break through all the network barriers to get access to your FB account such as Cyberoam. With the help of this site, not only can you get into your Facebook (FB) account, but can also browse through other sites as well. Now You have to go to the website and enter the URL to get the page where you can enter the credentials to access your account. That' it!
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Your Article was very useful and i used one of the hide ip application from what your listed.After that i checked my new fake ip range at Ip-Details.com It's fully different from my previous ip range.


text:
Tschoibalsan bezeichnet

 Chorloogiin Tschoibalsan, ehemaliger kommunistischer Führer der Mongolei
 Tschoibalsan (Stadt), Stadt in der Mongolei

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


As a writer with more than a decade of martial arts training/teaching experience, a black belt, several books on weapons & guns, a ridiculous library of Eastern and Western fight movies and a penchant for dissecting fights in every movie I see… I am here to help you figure this out. I'll be referencing author Rayne Hall's book Writing Fight Scenes (Writer's Craft Book 1), which I've found to be an excellent resource for writers looking to get more information. After you read this piece, I highly recommend you pick it up.
All stories thrive on conflict. It is as inherent to our human nature as breathing. From the earliest days of cavemen to the latest headline, all of the stories we've told each other in human history have been rooted in conflict. Without it, we have nothing to overcome and nothing to strive for.
One of the main things we as writers do is get our audience to invest in our story through the use of character. While a cover, blurb, concept and reader interest are all necessary concepts to get our readers interested, if said reader cannot connect or invest in our characters, then the story will not work. Conversely, if the characters are interesting or compelling enough, then readers are able to overlook story elements that they might not like.
"Can you hold this for me real quick?" The stranger slides a black package in my lap before I have a chance to respond. It jostles on top of my nervous knees as I hear it start to tick.
What are you feeling right now, after you've read that line? Think about the emotion on your mind at the moment. Chances are, you're curious. Maybe a little nervous. After all, who wouldn't be - in that situation. This is what opening lines are all about. They set the scene and ideally, put your reader into the story right away. But I want to set the tone of the story first, the classics never tried to start 'in medias res', they took their time, you might say.


text:
Gaming– Not if but how
Lindsey Jordan
Head of Media Creativity at MediaCom UK
Ready player one, two…billion.
In 2019 we might have overheard this conversation in the family homes across the land.
Mum to kid: "No gaming until you've done all your homework."
In 2020 it's completely a different convo.
Mum to kid (mum has considerably more grey hairs, possibly holding a gin): "Go and get on your PlayStation I need to do a Zoom call."
This massive escalation means that if there is ONE trend you can't ignore in 2021 it's the rise of gaming. It's been a crucial way of escaping the same four walls, entertaining (and distracting) the family, and connecting with people IVL as IRL was put on hold.
Now a mainstream entertainment industry, it's on a par with music and sport. There are 2.7bn gamers globally, a billion more than five years ago, and on average, global players aged 18 to 34-years-old spent MORE time playing than on social media or watching TV. More time than watching TV!
And it's not just gaming itself on the rise, it's also watching others game. Twitch, the Amazon owned streaming platform grew by a 1/3 in March alone. Gamers now spend more time watching others game than they do watching traditional sport.
Yet, despite four times more time spent on games than on TV, advertisers spend 40 times less money on gaming. One reason, perhaps, is a misunderstanding of what a 'typical' gamer looks like. Contrary to the stereotype of the teenager in the darkened bedroom or middle-aged man stuck in his youth, nowadays your everyday gamer is likely to look a lot like you or me, playing through our phones. Research by Activision Blizzard Media shows that around one in three adults across the US, UK, France and Germany is now a 'gamer'. 40% are women, while the average age of players is 34/35 years old. And Bidstack research showed an increase in video game use across all generations over Covid; with Gen Z up 47%, Millennials up 41%, Gen X up 27% and Baby Boomers up 25%.
In the 2020s it's crucial we see the bigger picture of the entire entertainment industry and help brands catch up with our audiences.
Firstly, there is a role for game engines as scale advertising environments. In a time where reach is harder to buy in traditional channels than it's ever been, games offer staggering numbers. The finale of Fortnite season 4 had 15.3m players, while another 3.5m watched on YouTube and Twitch. For brands, these are the X Factor finals and Superbowl's of tomorrow.
Deeper game integrations also offer a chance to influence new audiences, the opportunity to borrow credibility and place your brand at the heart of a very visible virtual world. A great example of this is Coke, who signed an ambassador deal not with a real-life football player, but with virtual FIFA star Alex Hunter to put the brand at the heart of the game, reaching a younger gaming audience.
One of the biggest opportunities accelerated by Covid is gaming as a metaverse. Games as a platform for hosting virtual activities will be one of the most impactful trends for the coming years, simulating experiences such as fashion shows, music performances, movie viewings, and more. You will all have heard of Travis Scott's and other music performances in Fortnite, but did you know marriages, graduation ceremonies, and even funerals are taking place in Animal Crossing. Even beyond the pandemic, we will see brands experimenting in the space as digital events will complement their real-world counterparts (and vice-versa).
And we can't forget the power of gaming Influencers. With the rise of Twitch, You Tube Gaming, and Facebook Gaming, we have seen a new breed of gaming and esports influencer emerge. There are c.2.5m streamers broadcasting on Twitch, with an elite group of 12k who command huge audiences. This rise will continue, especially as platforms like TikTok also make a bigger play into gaming.
Finally, Games have an important role as commerce platforms. Gamers are well versed in trading physical currency for its digital equivalent. This year we've seen the growth of spending on virtual products and services diversify hugely, be it tickets to virtual concerts, buying NFTs like virtual trainers in Aglet, or digital couture for Instagram. People are increasingly comfortable ascribing real monetary value to digital products, services and experiences.
If there is ONE trend you can't ignore in 2021 it's the rise of gaming. From kids, to teens, to young adults, to parents, gaming is now for the masses. But advertising investment in gaming lags. It's crucial that we see the bigger picture of the entire entertainment category, and this now includes gaming. Not if, but how….
Now I am going to go and dig for buried treasure in Animal Crossing….
Connected Podcast 114 – Josh Krichefski, Global COO & EMEA CEO


text:
Treasury prices can go higher
The U.S. Federal Reserve sounded an "all clear" for Treasury securities at its March 18 meeting. With continued problems in the U.S. labor market, stagnant real wage growth, flagging retail sales and deflation worries, the Fed won't be raising rates anytime soon. Treasury prices, then, are sure to rise.
The coming rally will draw strength from steps that central banks in Europe and Japan are taking to boost exports by devaluing their currencies, which drives investors to the U.S. What's more, government-bond prices, even for Spanish and Italian debt, are higher than in the U.S. It won't be long before investors narrow those gaps by purchasing Treasuries.
The Fed started the springtime rally last week when it effectively signaled it wouldn't soon increase interest rates by cranking down forecasts for the federal funds rate and inflation. The economy, the Fed said, is now "moderating" instead of "expanding at a solid pace."
The central bank also cut its 2015 economic growth outlook to 2.5 percent from 3.4 percent, much like the repeated downgrades of its gross domestic product forecasts for 2012, 2013 and 2014.
The Fed's post-meeting release dropped the statement that the Fed would be "patient" before raising interest rates. To make sure no one thought that meant an imminent rate increase, Chair Janet Yellen said: "Just because we have removed the word 'patient' from the statement doesn't mean we're going to be impatient."
The Fed's dual mandate is to promote full employment and price stability. It hasn't accomplished either. Payroll employment has accelerated, with almost 282,000 new jobs a month in the last 11 months, significantly higher than the average of about 185,000 between October 2010 and March 2014.
But most of the new jobs are in low-paying sectors such as retailing and hospitality, not high-paying fields such as manufacturing, utilities and information technology. Also, with corporate revenue growing slower in this business expansion versus other recoveries, the route to larger profits has been through cost-cutting. Most costs, directly or indirectly, are for labor.
Real wages and median household incomes, as a result, have been flat, which slows down consumer spending. Households are putting away rather than spending the savings from the recent drop in gasoline prices. Retail sales fell in December, January and February, while the household savings rate jumped.
The Fed defines its second mandate, price stability, as 2 percent inflation. Many other central banks use the 2 percent inflation target as well. They don't love inflation, but they fear the deflation that has plagued Japan for two decades. As prices fall, potential buyers anticipate further declines by putting off purchases. Excess capacity and inventories mount and depress prices further. That confirms consumers' suspicions, so they further cut spending, to the detriment of economic growth.
After the Fed's March 18 announcement, Treasury bond prices leaped. I continue to believe that the 30-year Treasury yield, now 2.59 percent, will drop to 2 percent in a year, for a total return of about 15 percent. For a 30-year zero-coupon bond, I expect about an 18 percent return. I also look for the 10-year Treasury yield to drop from the current 2 percent to 1 percent, producing a total return of about 10 percent.
With the odds falling for a Fed rate increase in the near future, investors are beginning to concentrate on the shrinking issuance of Treasury notes and bonds, which fell to $693 billion in February from $1.7 trillion in the 12 months ending May 2010, as the fiscal 2014 federal deficit declined to $483 billion from $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2009. On the demand side, foreigners continue to charge into Treasuries as the ultimate safe haven in a sea of global economic and financial trouble. Their holdings have jumped by almost $232 billion from January 2014.
And there's plenty of money available to buy Treasuries, with quantitative easing taking place in Japan and the euro zone. The Bank of Japan is buying up to $100 billion in securities a month, while the European Central Bank recently began purchasing $65 billion a month. As those central banks deliberately drive down their currencies, they encourage investors to flock to Treasuries.
There is another compelling argument for substantial rallies in Treasuries: The gaps between their yields and those of most developed countries are astoundingly wide. Those gaps are ridiculous -- unless you believe Spain and Italy issue higher-quality government obligations than the U.S.! Only Australia, among 17 developed foreign countries, has a higher 10-year bond yield than does the U.S., by 0.32 percentage point.
These yield gaps scream to be closed, and no doubt will be, by a rally in Treasury prices. With the Bank of Japan and the ECB buying up sovereigns, yields in those regions will probably fall further.
Investors in the euro zone and Japan can get better returns by buying Treasuries as opposed to their own sovereigns. They will get better capital appreciation as Treasuries rally. And they profit further as the dollar continues to rise against the yen, euro and almost every currency.
Copper prices have further downside risks
The commodity price boom that began after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001 has turned to bust. Copper prices are down 41 percent from their 2011 peak and probably have a lot further to go.
So why are copper producers ignoring all the obvious economic signals -- lower demand, excess supply and falling prices -- and ratcheting up production? The answer is that producers have powerful incentives to increase output.
(Disclosure: Gary Shilling manages investment portfolios in which copper is shorted, so I have a financial interest in falling copper prices.)
Let me explain. Think back to the early 2000s, when it was accepted wisdom that fast-growing China would soak up most of the world's commodities. China, indeed, has been buying more than 40 percent of annual global output of copper, tin, lead, zinc and other nonferrous metals. It's been gobbling up 50 percent of seaborne iron ore and huge quantities of coal. And it has built large stockpiles of crude oil.
As manufacturing shifted to China from Europe and North America, the Middle Kingdom became a much bigger buyer and user of commodities than its domestic economy required.
The jump in prices led commodity producers to invest in big new operations in Australia, Brazil and elsewhere. Many of these projects came online just as global demand slowed in a classic boom-to-bust commodity cycle.
But even as China's commodity-intensive exports to North America and Europe atrophy and China's own infrastructure spending slows, excess capacity keeps building. The reason: It's not economical to suspend some of these projects due to high sunk costs and shutdown expenses. Some producers, moreover, may not be free to slash output as prices swoon, especially if they're government-controlled and need foreign exchange to service sovereign debts.
To see how market versus non-market forces are interacting, compare two widely used metals, aluminum and copper. Aluminum prices are down 32 percent from their April 2011 top, much less than copper's 41 percent freefall. Six of the top 10 aluminum companies are in Russia and China, where government decisions, not economic forces, often prevail.
The government and state-owned enterprises in China push aluminum output to provide employment and to achieve other national goals, such as self-sufficiency in aluminum. In Russia and India, the goal is to generate revenue from aluminum exports that can be exchanged for currencies needed to pay down debt; in Brazil, the driver is substituting domestically produced aluminum for imports.
Aluminum production in these emerging economies has been booming. Even though half of China's output is produced at a loss, the Chinese government buys excess metal from smelters to avoid bankruptcies, bad bank debts and unemployment.
Much of the surge in aluminum output, however, is offset by cutbacks in the U.S., Canada and Australia. Alcoa, for example, is closing high-cost plants around the world. Since 2009, the aluminum industry in developed countries has shuttered more than 50 smelters. These moves have kept global prices from plummeting.
By contrast, copper is produced mainly in the developing countries of Chile, Peru, Congo, Zambia and Russia. China is a net exporter of aluminum but an importer of copper. China had been building copper stockpiles but apparently that has slowed, along with China's slackened growth. The premium paid for copper on the Shanghai market over the London Metal Exchange was $85 a ton at the end of January, down from $160 a year earlier.
Copper output in developed countries has been restrained by falling prices, except in the U.S. and Australia, where output has risen because the marginal cost of production is even lower than market prices. Copper inventories are rising as output grows in Chile, China, Russia and other countries. In Chile, the world's largest copper producer, stocks rose by 170,000 tons in the second half of 2014, the highest in a decade except for a brief spurt in 2013.
Copper is used in almost every manufactured product, from plumbing fixtures to autos to machinery. Some 56 percent goes into electrical equipment and construction, which are weakening as China's economy shifts from an emphasis on manufactured exports, infrastructure and construction to consumer spending and services.
Since copper is traded in dollars, the strong greenback makes it more expensive for non-U.S. buyers, putting more downward pressure on prices. At the same time, since about 93 percent of copper is produced outside the U.S., labor and other production costs are dropping in dollar terms, encouraging yet more output.
The upshot is that about 20 percent of mined copper worldwide is unprofitable at current prices. A global copper surplus is likely this year, the first since 2009, with supply exceeding demand by 500,000 tons, or 2 percent of annual refined production, according to Goldman Sachs. The International Copper Study Group, made up of copper-producing and consuming countries, says demand will rise just 1.1 percent this year while output jumps 4.3 percent.
In an atmosphere of falling commodity prices, copper will probably continue to be weak; it's a favorite short in portfolios I manage. The lower the price of copper, the more developing economies must produce and export to get the same number of dollars to service their foreign debts. And the more they export, the more the downward pressure on copper prices. That forces them to produce and export even more, in a self-reinforcing downward spiral.
Look out below.
Big declines for Oil ahead
At about US$50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of US$107. They may fall more, perhaps even as low as US$10 to US$20. Here's why.
US economic growth has averaged 2.3 per cent a year since the recovery started in mid-2009. That's about half the rate you might expect in a rebound from the deepest recession since the 1930s. Meanwhile, growth in China is slowing, is minimal in the euro zone and is negative in Japan. Throw in the large increase in US vehicle gas mileage and other conservation measures and it's clear why global oil demand is weak and might even decline.
At the same time, output is climbing, thanks in large part to increased US production from hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling. US output rose by 15 per cent in the 12 months through November from a year earlier, based on the latest data, while imports declined 4 per cent.
Something else figures in the mix: The eroding power of the OPEC cartel. Like all cartels, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is designed to ensure stable and above- market crude prices. But those high prices encourage cheating, as cartel members exceed their quotas. For the cartel to function, its leader -- in this case, Saudi Arabia -- must accommodate the cheaters by cutting its own output to keep prices from falling. But the Saudis have seen their past cutbacks result in market-share losses.
So the Saudis, backed by other Persian Gulf oil producers with sizable financial resources -- Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates -- embarked on a game of chicken with the cheaters. On November 27, OPEC said that it wouldn't cut output, sending oil prices off a cliff. The Saudis figure they can withstand low prices for longer than their financially weaker competitors, who will have to cut production first as pumping becomes uneconomical.
What is the price at which major producers chicken out and slash output? Whatever that price is, it is much lower than the US$125 a barrel Venezuela needs to support its mismanaged economy. The same goes for Ecuador, Algeria, Nigeria, Iraq, Iran and Angola.
Saudi Arabia requires a price of more than US$90 to fund its budget. But it has US$726 billion in foreign currency reserves and is betting it can survive for two years with prices of less than US$40 a barrel.
Furthermore, the price when producers chicken out isn't necessarily the average cost of production, which for 80 per cent of new US shale oil production this year will be US$50 to US$69 a barrel, according to Daniel Yergin of energy consultant IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Instead, the chicken-out point is the marginal cost of production, or the additional costs after the wells are drilled and the pipes are laid. Another way to think of it: It's the price at which cash flow for an additional barrel falls to zero.
Last month, Wood Mackenzie, an energy research organization, found that of 2,222 oil fields surveyed worldwide, only 1.6 per cent would have negative cash flow at US$40 a barrel. That suggests there won't be a lot of chickening out at US$40. Keep in mind that the marginal cost for efficient US shale-oil producers is about US$10 to US$20 a barrel in the Permian Basin in Texas and about the same for oil produced in the Persian Gulf.
Also consider the conundrum financially troubled countries such as Russia and Venezuela find themselves in: They desperately need the revenue from oil exports to service foreign debts and fund imports. Yet, the lower the price, the more oil they need to produce and export to earn the same number of dollars, the currency used to price and trade oil.
With new discoveries, stability in parts of the Middle East and increasing drilling efficiency, global oil output will no doubt rise in the next several years, adding to pressure on prices. US crude oil production is forecast to rise by 300,000 barrels a day during the next year from 9.1 million now.
Sure, the drilling rig count is falling, but it's the inefficient rigs that are being idled, not the horizontal rigs that are the backbone of the fracking industry. Consider also Iraq's recent deal with the Kurds, meaning that another 550,000 barrels a day will enter the market.
While supply climbs, demand is weakening. OPEC forecasts demand for its oil at a 14-year low of 28.2 million barrels a day in 2017, 600,000 less than its forecast a year ago and down from current output of 30.7 million. It also cut its 2015 demand forecast to a 12-year low of 29.12 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reduced its 2015 global demand forecast for the fourth time in 12 months by 230,000 barrels a day to 93.3 million and sees supply exceeding demand this year by 400,000 barrels a day.
Although the 40 per cent decline in US gasoline prices since April 2014 has led consumers to buy more gas-guzzling SUVs and pick-up trucks, consumers during the past few years have bought the most efficient blend of cars and trucks ever. At the same time, slowing growth in China and the shift away from energy-intensive manufactured exports and infrastructure to consumer services is depressing oil demand. China accounted for two-thirds of the growth in demand for oil in the past decade.
So look for more big declines in crude oil and related energy prices. My next column will cover the winners and losers from low oil prices.


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Watch Enola Holmes
2020 Subtitles and Closed Captions
Enola Holmes is a movie starring Millie Bobby Brown, Henry Cavill, and Sam Claflin. When Enola Holmes-Sherlock's teen sister-discovers her mother missing, she sets off to find her, becoming a super-sleuth in her own right as she...
Henry Cavill, Helena Bonham Carter, Millie Bobby Brown, Sam Claflin
Nancy Springer, Jack Thorne
England, 1884 - a world on the brink of change. On the morning of her 16th birthday, Enola Holmes (Millie Bobby Brown) wakes to find that her mother (Helena Bonham Carter) has disappeared, leaving behind an odd assortment of gifts but no apparent clue as to where she's gone or why. After a free-spirited childhood, Enola suddenly finds herself under the care of her brothers Sherlock (Henry Cavill) and Mycroft (Sam Claflin), both set on sending her away to a finishing school for "proper" young ladies. Refusing to follow their wishes, Enola escapes to search for her mother in London. But when her journey finds her entangled in a mystery surrounding a young runaway Lord (Louis Partridge), Enola becomes a super-sleuth in her own right, outwitting her famous brother as she unravels a conspiracy that threatens to set back the course of history.
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Brian Banks
19 customer reviews about mystery «Enola Holmes»
Saturday, 16 Jan 2021 15:44
I loved this film. I was disappointed that I didn't get to see it in the theatre, but it's worth seeing, and I'm glad I did. The acting is great, the plot is exciting and engrossing, the visuals are stunning, and it's a very moving film, even though it's not a happy ending. This is one of the few movies that is both sad and uplifting. It's a good film to watch with your loved ones on a rainy day, or any time that you want to put your mind to rest. It's a film that should be shown to everyone. This is a film that I can watch over and over again.
A poignant drama about the life and death of a famous writer, the embodiment of literary success. With a strong cast, strong performances and a great script, it's a must see for all fans of the literary world.
Mark Ramos
Tuesday, 29 Dec 2020 14:28
This is a good movie. It is not about a detective. It is about a man who is lost and tries to find his place in the world. In the end, he finds his place and is happy. I would recommend it to anyone who likes a good movie and is willing to try to find the meaning in life.
Janice Wallace
It's my understanding that this movie was shot in New Zealand, and it looks beautiful. The story was pretty much the same as the first one. I like the "lessons" they were trying to teach. A little bit more realism and less fanciful. The main character, Chris, was a lot more fleshed out, and I think that was a good thing. I found his story very interesting. I liked how they showed the relationship between him and his father. I also liked how the relationship between his father and his mother was more developed. He was very self-sufficient and that was very interesting. He was very mature and understanding of his situation. I think that the movie was not overly emotional or cliche. I didn't feel it was necessary to have a "happy ending" in this movie. I found it to be an interesting story, with a lot of depth, and a lot of heart. I would definitely recommend this movie to anyone who loves movies about the issues facing children in the world today.
I've always been a fan of Michael Mann's work, but I haven't seen a lot of his movies, until now. I am extremely disappointed to say that this is one of the best I've seen. This movie has so much going for it, that it's a shame that it isn't more widely known. The story is about a man who is a detective in the world of crime. He has a problem with his wife and he has trouble with his job. He meets a young woman who is very intelligent, and he tries to help her. I think the best part of the movie is the relationship between the two of them. It is such a strong part of the movie, and it is so easy to relate to. They have this great chemistry, and it's very hard to not feel for her, and the relationship is so realistic. The movie is so good, that it will keep you watching. The ending is so amazing, that you don't want to stop watching it. The acting is also great, and you can feel every emotion that the characters are feeling. This movie is so good, that it will keep you watching, and you'll get so much out of it.
Monday, 21 Dec 2020 17:46
This is a film that I loved, the performance of Derek Jacobi is outstanding, he plays it perfectly and I am sure this role would be a big part of his career. His performance is just so very powerful and powerful that he just blows away the likes of Johnny Depp, Robert Downey Jr. and Ben Affleck. The plot is so important to the film and it really grabs you and it is so good to see so many of the characters react to each other. It is so good that it is hard to know when to stop watching. I don't know why this film is not on the IMDb top 250 but I recommend you watch it.
Harold Daniels
I am a huge fan of silent films, especially those from the silent era. Many of my favorites have been silent films. And "I'm the Man Who Loved You" is my all-time favorite. It is a beautifully-shot and intense film, beautifully acted. And it is one of the best portrayals of the situation that I've seen in a movie. The entire cast is excellent. The scenes of the silent era are spectacular, and the silent characters are vivid and believable. And the plot is so good that it is hard to find anything wrong with it. "I'm the Man Who Loved You" is a great film, and one of my favorites. Highly recommended.
This is a very, very good film. It was a real treat to see people talking about it. This is a true story and it will be the last time a true story film is made. I don't think there will be another film like this. This film is so true to life, it will be a real treat to watch and not have to go to the movies to see a film. The cast was perfect. The story was very moving. I love the way the story was told and it was amazing. I loved the ending, it was a true ending. I would recommend this film to everyone. It will be a real treat to watch. I can't wait to see it again and I hope it will be the last film made. I think people will be very surprised by this film. I would definitely recommend this film to anyone. This film is a true story, it is a great film and it is very, very good.
This is a very interesting film, based on a true story. What I liked the most about the film is that it is very clear that this was a family tragedy. The oldest son, played by Liam Neeson, was a great actor, but he was really struggling to maintain his sanity. The movie is not a drama, it is not a comedy, it is not a thriller. It is a very sad movie that portrays the dangers of the "underground" in which this family, one of the most successful families in the world, was caught. The movie is very good in depicting the family's fear of what was happening and the difficulties they had trying to deal with the situation. I really liked the way that the mother kept her sanity and kept her children together. I really liked the way that the father portrayed his concern for his children, the way he looked at his wife and how he wanted to protect her. All of the actors did a great job, but I think Liam Neeson and his character, Will, did a great job. I also think that the special effects were very good. I thought that the movie was very interesting and I think that the film should be re-released in theaters so that people can see it again.
Sunday, 22 Nov 2020 10:25
Truly a piece of art that will stick in my mind for a very long time. This is one of those movies that you just can't take your eyes off. This is a movie that needs to be seen on the big screen. Its a true love story. Its a drama. Its a suspense. Its a thriller. Its a story of two brothers and the loyalty they have for one another. Its a story of growing up and the sacrifice you have to make for your family. This movie is also a tribute to the great acting of all the actors and actresses. The acting is just so real and that is the most important thing. I hope that this movie will stay in my memory and in my heart forever. I never get tired of seeing this movie. It has touched me so much. I was very moved by it and that is why I give it a perfect 10. This is a movie that will never get old. It will always be one of my all time favorites. I hope that you will enjoy it as much as I did. Thank you.
Carl Garcia
Monday, 16 Nov 2020 22:37
The movie is great. I love it. I have watched it twice in the last 2 days and I love it. The story is a little slow, but this is the reason I love the movie. The story is about a young girl named Annette that has been abandoned by her parents and is left in the care of a mysterious man named Howard, played by Joe Spinell. Howard has a very strange habit of talking to a ghost. The ghost can be seen in the form of a boy named Oliver. Oliver has the ability to make Annette's hair stand on end, and it is impossible for her to walk without her hair standing on end. This is something that Howard does to her and it is very creepy. The movie is about how Oliver and Annette become friends, and they go on a journey together to try and find Howard's family. The acting is great, and the storyline is great. The movie is very well made and I hope that it gets a good theatrical release. It is a great movie, and I will definitely buy it when it comes out on DVD.
Tuesday, 10 Nov 2020 06:23
First of all, I want to say that I'm not the biggest fan of Jane Campion, but she is a wonderful actress and the character of Tevye is one of her best. She played the character of Tevye with such realism and ability. If you have not seen this film yet, I recommend you do so. You will not be disappointed.
The great thing about this movie is that it makes you think about what really matters in life and who you really are. What is true happiness, and what is true love? Who is a friend, and who is a foe? The actors do an outstanding job at portraying characters who are supposed to be simple, and it is their love that makes this movie so beautiful. The movie was well directed and the story was told with a great sense of humor. I loved the ending, and the ending of this movie is what really matters in life.
Martha Hopkins
Monday, 26 Oct 2020 05:18
This is one of my all time favorites. I like the story and the actors. I also like the music. I am a music lover and music in general. I really like the music of Michael Nyman. I have this album on CD and I play it a lot. The movie is about a young woman named Ingrid. She is an aspiring writer. She writes a story about the wife of a prominent lawyer. She then takes it to a publishing house to publish. It is a mystery. I love the movie because it is so moving and the ending is so beautiful. I have to say that this is one of my favorite movies. I have watched this movie many times and it never gets old. I give it a 9 out of 10.
Bruce Hansen
Sunday, 25 Oct 2020 00:51
The first time I watched this movie was back in my childhood. But after watching it for a second time, I realized it was a brilliant and highly original movie that deserves a 10. The first time I watched this movie, I was not too happy with it because it was very slow and boring, but after watching it for a second time, I realized that I had been missing something. This movie deserves a 10, because it's so original, and it's so well-made. It's really hard to believe that this movie was made in the late 80's. The colors are rich and it's really interesting to see all the different environments, and how they are painted. The acting is excellent and the characters are fascinating and realistic. The story is very good, and it's really sad that this movie is not as well-known as it should be. If you like movies that are not typical, but original, then I suggest you to watch this movie. I give this movie a 10 because it deserves a 10.
Tiffany Jones
I had the pleasure of seeing this film at the Toronto International Film Festival. The story is compelling and thought-provoking. The acting is first-rate. The cinematography is stunning. It is very well-filmed. The film was beautifully photographed, and the locations were all very special. The film is highly recommended to everyone.
Karen Castro
This is a great movie. I've seen it once and it stuck with me. The story is well written and the actors really did a great job. This is a great movie, especially if you're a fan of Mystery/thriller films. It's a must see. It is based on a true story and so is true story. The acting is top notch, but the story is also top notch. I was a bit put off by the ending. It's not a big shocker but it just left me feeling like the movie could have gone a little better. The only thing that bothered me was the movie was a bit slow. The whole time, I was thinking "this is going to be slow." However, I did enjoy the movie. I think that the story was great. I'm glad that it has gone on to become a classic. I highly recommend it to anyone who likes mystery/thriller films and is willing to take it slow.
Deborah G.
What a great film! As an avid movie goer, I have seen and loved all sorts of movies. I have seen many good and bad. Some films I thought were pretty good. Others I thought were pretty bad. I can't say I'm a great movie critic. It depends on the film and what I was looking for. But this film was great. I liked the storyline and the acting. I can't remember the last time I saw a movie where I could actually feel like I was watching it. This is one of those movies where you can really feel the suspense. I would recommend this movie to anyone who is looking for a great movie. I would give it a 10.
Helen Patel
Friday, 11 Sep 2020 22:08
This is a great film. I saw it on DVD and still watch it. The performances are superb and the story line is superb. It's hard to believe that this is a true story. It is very difficult to find something that is true about the period, but the film does that and it does it well. I would like to know more about the period in which this movie was made. I think this is a great story and the acting is superb. I like to think that there are real people like the characters in this movie. There are real people who lived in that era, and it is interesting to see their lives. I give this film a 9 out of 10. It is a good film.


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The Real Story of Rocky Balboa | Chatterboxdetox
Chatterboxdetox
The Real Story of Rocky Balboa
The Real Story of Rocky…
"Going in one more round when you don't think you can. That's what makes all the difference in your life" – Rocky Balboa
So anyone that knows me well knows that I am a huge fan of the amazingly successful Rocky movie franchise. Obviously there are other super fans out there because the movies generated over $1.4 billion at the box office. The movies are inspirational, motivational, and encouraging which was also part of what I hoped to accomplish when I started this blog.
A lot of people don't realize that the rags to riches storyline of Rocky Balboa also mirrored the real life of the actor portraying him; Sylvester Stallone. It's important to note for those who have not watched any of the movies that it was about a washed up, down and out on his luck amateur fighter who ends up fighting for the coveted world title.
Prior to the first Rocky, Sylvester Stallone was an unknown aspiring actor in a movie called The Lords of Flatbush which didn't generate much money at all for Sly. He was beyond broke, to the point where he actually attempted to sell his own dog because he was concerned he wouldn't be able to feed both of them.
Everything changed one night when Sly caught a Muhammad Ali fight. The opponent was a guy by the name of Chuck Wepner or otherwise known as "The Bayonne Bleeder." Keep in mind that even in that time, Ali was one of the greatest fighters to ever grace the ring.
The fight was supposed to be easily won by Ali, and although a real fight, the perception was more of an exhibition for a guy who was no match for Ali. The fight turned out to be great and not only did Chuck go the distance, but he knocked the champ down.
Sly thought metaphorically that this applied a lot to life realizing that when people get knocked down, they have to get back up. In his own words came an idea, "A man who was going to stand up to life, take a shot, and go the distance." Sly took this idea and wrote a movie script in three days. He pitched the idea and the big time movie executives loved it, but with one exception.
Sly wanted to play the lead actor and they wanted a well-known Hollywood star to play the lead role. Remember that Stallone was literally at a point in life where he was living out his car on the streets and even with an offer of 360k for the scripts and rights, he turned it down. A man who was living in poverty who had the ability to change everything in his life at a time in the 70's where this was "change your life forever money!"
He figured he pretty well had the concept of being down and out, living in a gutter figured out and things couldn't get much worse. He believed in his script enough and his dream to play the lead role so much that he turned down the mega offer and decided to roll the dice, not knowing what the final outcome would be. I venture to say that given the same situation, the majority of us would have taken the money and never looked back.
After a lot of steadfast persistence, eventually they gave into Sly and gave him the budget to make the movie and the opportunity to play the lead role he desired. In order to keeps cost down, they opted to use family and friends as cast members. When the movie was screened at The Directors Guild in front of 900 movie buffs, the movie played horribly. The quiet reactions were not what Sly expected and his perception at that moment was utter letdown.
Sly was horribly embarrassed and really thought he blew it. As he walked down the stairs feeling defeated, everyone was standing at the base of the stairwell applauding and congratulating him. The original Rocky movie went on to receive nine Oscar nominations and three wins including Best Picture and grossed over $200 million.
The film eventually made it into the National Film Registry and even had props placed in the Smithsonian Museum. Needless to say, it was life changing for a man who had but a few cents left to his name. Some of the most inspirational quotes ever created came from this franchise.
So now you know the story, in case you didn't know. I have seen all of them many times over, but my favorite is from the one used in the picture post up top. Can you guess which part it's from?
"Let me tell you something you already know. The world ain't all sunshine and rainbows. It is a very mean and nasty place and it will beat you to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let it. You, me, or nobody is gonna hit as hard as life. But it ain't how hard you hit; it's about how hard you can get hit, and keep moving forward. How much you can take, and keep moving forward. That's how winning is done. Now, if you know what you're worth, then go out and get what you're worth. But you gotta be willing to take the hit, and not pointing fingers saying you ain't where you are because of him, or her, or anybody. Cowards do that and that ain't you. You're better than that"
Category: LifeBy chatterboxdetox December 8, 2017 Leave a comment
Tags: balboafilmfranchisemovierockyslystallonesylvester
Author: chatterboxdetox
http://www.chatterboxdetox.com
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Introspection & Purpose Through Tragedy
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The Vault Archive Collection | Part One
Are you a Pluviophile?
A Firefighters Hero
A Letter To My 12-Year-Old Self
Rodan+Fields
Copyright 2019 © Jason Hathcock. All Rights Reserved.


As managing director of the Evolution Theatre Company, Mark Phillips Schwamberger prides himself on taking artistic risks. But when it came to securing tax-exempt charitable status under section 501(c)3 of the Internal Revenue Code, Schwamberger went all risk-averse. "It's a simple matter, but it's not a simple matter," Schwamberger says. "You need to get this right the first time, or red flags come up."
Fortunately the Arts Legal Assistance Program, created by the Greater Columbus Arts Council (GCAC) and the Columbus Bar Association, was there to help. "We're trying to aim the program at individuals and organizations that don't really have the infrastructure or the budget to get the kind of professional help they need in this area," says GCAC President Milt Baughman.
Chester Willcox & Saxbe associate Jason Beehler helped Schwamberger with the IRS paperwork. Beehler studied creative writing at Ohio Wesleyan University and spent six years working for GCAC before starting law school in 2006.
Beehler says even lawyers without such direct arts links like the program: "The legal community, I think--especially in Columbus, to its credit--is very serious about the responsibility of lawyers to give back in the community to people who can't afford our services."
The program assists nonprofits in matters such as contracts, copyright, trademark, lease agreements and corporate structure. Ultimately, says Beehler, it's not just a handout, but an opportunity to educate artists and arts organizations about the necessity of planning for legal needs: "Legal services should be a component of what you budget for."


(Torrington, CT) Charlotte Hungerford Hospital Diabetes and Endocrinology will present "What's New In Diabetes?", a health talk on Wednesday, November 9th at 6:30 p.m. at the Charlotte Hungerford Hospital Memorial Conference Room, 540 Litchfield Street, Torrington. Endocrinologist Dr. Egils Bogdanovics will deliver the presentation that is free to the public. Please R.S.V.P. to 860-489-0661.


The 16th Convention on the Elderly took place in Tokyo on September 2 with about 9,000 elderly people attending.
The Convention adopted two resolutions against cutbacks in the social service system and wartime legislation.
One resolution was in opposition to the adverse revision of the medical insurance system, pension cuts, the rise in nursing care insurance premiums, and cancellation of national health insurance policy for persons whose premium payments are in arrears. The other resolution said that the elderly, as persons having experienced the war, are against the wartime bills which are like copies of the old National Mobilization Law and the Maintenance of Public Order Law.
The Convention also adopted an appeal encouraging aged people to make friends and avoid to live in loneliness.
The appeal points out that many senior citizens are now suffering from a hard life, illness, and nursing care provided with the elderly bearing a heavier burden of the medical costs and a reduction of pension benefits. The appeal calls on older people to join in movements together to demand the government take steps for them to be able to live more actively, rather than despairing, thereby cutting a link with society, and retiring into their shells.
Professor Inoue Hideo of Kanazawa University reported on the U.N. 2nd Congress on Aged People held in Madrid, Spain, in April. He said that the U.N. sees that change in society and protection of human rights are the way to respond to the aging community, and criticized the Japanese government's backward attitude.


Were you Baptized and received Communion but were never confirmed?
Do you want to be available to be a godparent or a Confirmation sponsor?
Are you interested in enriching your connection to God and His people?
This program is for adults who were baptized and also received First Holy Eucharist (Communion) but never completed their initiation into the Catholic Church through the Sacrament of Confirmation. Deacon Michael Chase conducts the 5-session program. The Confirmation ceremony takes place at St. Paul's Cathedral. If you are interested please contact him as soon as possible by email or calling 508-755-4773 (eves. & weekends).


The evening offers an 18th century German pasticcio, or more precisely, a pasticcio Passion, and what's more, a premiere in Hungary, in a performance by the most ambitious early music formation, in other words, the two ensembles of György Vashegyi, Purcell Choir and Orfeo Orchestra. The church music 'potpourri' compiled around 1750 includes Johann Sebastian Bach's music in its three movements as well as compositions by Carl Heinrich Graun and Georg Philipp Telemann. The only extant manuscript of Wer ist der, so von Edom kömmt, which has served as the subject of extensive musicological research and the starting point of audacious theories for many decades, is preserved in the collection of the Berlin State Library: the performance by the György Vashegyi ensembles is based on this priceless document of music history.


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PA Firefighters Ask Judge to Grant Certifications
In an "unprecedented" case, 11 Dunmore firefighters hired by the borough without civil service certification want a judge to grant them that status.
Jim Lockwood
The Times-Tribune, Scranton, Pa.
Dunmore, PA, Bureau of Fire
DUNMORE, PA — Eleven firefighters hired by the borough without civil service certification want a judge to grant them that status.
The borough does not oppose the firefighters' legal action, filed Nov. 26 in Lackawanna County Court, seeking a declaratory judgment giving them civil service certification.
They want this certification because it's a main factor in determining a pecking order for promotions and layoffs, relative to three newer firefighters hired after the borough implemented a civil service system in 2018, and who thus have civil service certification that the other 11 do not have, the action says.
The situation apparently is unprecedented.
Applicable state civil service requirements and the borough code "do not address a situation such as this one, where regular full-time firefighters were hired by a municipality and have worked for years without civil service examination or certification," according to the court action filed by firefighter union Local 860 of the International Association of Fire Fighters.
Both the union action and a legal reply from borough labor counsel, Ufberg & Associates, do not explain why the borough did not use a merit/examination-based civil service system to hire the 11 firefighters, or why the borough only in recent years changed course and implemented civil service for newer hires.
Efforts to contact union attorney Joel Wolff, attorneys with the Ufberg law firm, Mayor Timothy Burke and borough solicitor Tom Cummings were unsuccessful.
The court action merely says the borough "did not offer the opportunity for civil service certification" when it hired the 11 firefighters between May 1999 and mid-February 2016.
Governed by the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania's Borough Code, Dunmore is required to establish a civil service commission because the borough has a paid fire department with more than three firefighters, the action says. The court action does not specify when the borough created its civil service commission or what prompted that move.
The fire department has 15 full-time employees and some part-time employees, the action says.
The crux of the matter is this: Three unnamed firefighters hired since 2018 under the newly implemented civil service procedures actually rank higher for promotions and job retention in layoffs than the 11 longer-serving, non-civil-service firefighters, the court action says.
That's because civil service status — and not seniority rights — "is the single most critical factor" in eligibility for promotions and job retention, the action says.
"As a result, the non-civil-service-certified firefighters now face certain disadvantages, such as the potential for claims of priority employment status by the junior civil-service-certified firefighters" in the event of layoffs, the legal action says. "In addition, and as a matter of substantial harm to them, (the) non-civil-service-certified firefighters, notwithstanding their years of experience, are effectively barred from taking any promotional examinations, resulting in 'stagnation' and dead-ending of their careers."
In a legal reply filed Dec. 17 by the Ufberg law firm, the borough agrees with the firefighters and does not contest or oppose having the court declare the 11 firemen as civil-service certified. Neither the borough nor the commission can legally confer upon the 11 the civil-service status they seek; only a judge can do that in a declaratory judgment, the reply says.
The borough's reply also notes that while Dunmore did not use a civil service system to hire the 11 firefighters, they did not demand that civil service procedures be used in their hirings.
The union and borough have been working cooperatively for some time on the issue, the court papers say.
The borough's civil service commission, which is not a direct party to the action, also does not object to a declaratory judgment in favor of the 11, according to a Dec. 4 letter to the court from commission attorney Michael O'Brien.
"As a result of the unique circumstances of this case, and in the interests of fairness, the civil service commission does not oppose the specific relief sought," O'Brien said in his letter.
The union seeks a judgment conferring upon the 11 "deemed as" civil-service certifications that grants them "all rights commensurate with such civil service status" from the dates of their respective hires.
The 11 firefighters and their dates of hire include:
Michael Rinaldi, May 25, 1999
John Malecki, Nov. 30, 1999
John Sohns, July 31, 2001
Joseph Bianchi Jr., Feb. 27, 2002
Eric Shigo, Nov. 26, 2012
Gregory Kamla, Nov. 26,2012
Christopher Cichocki, Nov. 26, 2012
Lawrence Waters III, July 8, 2013
Todd Flaherty, Dec. 8, 2014
Kyle Stanton, Dec. 14, 2015
Paul Kwiec, Feb. 8, 2016
Reached via phone, Rinaldi, the longest-serving of the 11 firefighters named in the action, deferred comment to Flahery, who is the union president.
Flaherty said he would have to check with all union members to see if they wanted him to comment on behalf of them, but did not reply further.
©2020 The Times-Tribune (Scranton, Pa.)
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"Gilly. I have to tell you something.
That's what Will says…probably 50 times a day. He does love me, and it's very sweet that he tells me all the time, but…sometimes it's also a place holder for what he says when he can't remember what he was actually going to say.
Sometimes I do that to God. Like. Am I the only person in the world that struggles with prayer? When I do pray, I see stuff happen. Crazy stuff. Like, immediate, insane things happen and I know that it was God answering my prayer. It's kind of freaky sometimes. Especially lately.
But even knowing that, sometimes I go to pray and I'm like, "Hey God…Uhhhhh. I love you." Which I'm sure He finds very endearing. And possibly annoying. But I love that He understands that sometimes my little, addled mind just can't sum up any more than that.
Ahhhh omg doesn't that make you feel like you can BREATHE AGAIN?!
If you're like me, and are way too hard on yourself, well. Stop it. God loves you. You have nothing to offer Him, and He loves you. You cannot make Him love you more, or less. He is good. And…He has to tell you something.
This entry was posted in Family, God, Random on October 25, 2013 by gilly.
Great reminder! He's been reminding me this week that it's all about what He can do in me, not what I need to do to be close to Him. I've been making myself out to be WAY too important in this whole process.


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text:
Q: Addition, Dimensions and O I have a glass of water in front of me.

Selecting any particle in that glass. Is it possible for that particle to be in all positions ( NOT AT THE SAME TIME  ) that the water occupies in the glass?

There can be no change of state of matter.
Maybe, and I say, maybe, Gravity can be broken down (to pieces).

A: Technically I suppose so, but molecules in liquid (especially in a substance composed of hydrogen bonds like water) are quite "fixed" and don't move too much around. If it was a container full of water vapor, it would be a different story.
I'm not entirely sure what the content of the question has to do with the title, or with the tags, by the way.


Identity management is at the centre of how you securely connect people, devices and data.
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Defining and automating the processes used to manage the entire life cycle of a digital identity.
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Cut any combination of vegetables into 2" cubes. Mince garlic and put it in a small jar with olive oil. Add lemon juice, oregano, thyme, and black pepper. Mix cubes with 1/2 of the dressing until all are well covered. Put in a flat dish and roast in oven until tender. Mix the remaining dressing with the raw spinach and toss with veggies. Serve and ENJOY!


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Legislation update – New age law already dated
By System Administrator	 1st May 2006 12:00 am 3rd November 2015 3:44 pm
The European Court of Justice (ECJ) has ruled that age discrimination could already be illegal in the UK, even though the Employment Equality (Age) Regulations do not come into effect until October.
The case of Mangold v Helm, which was referred by the German courts to the ECJ, found that it was discriminatory to employ people over the age of 51 years on a fixed-term contract.
Although European Union (EU) countries have until the end of 2006 to implement age discrimination legislation, the European Directive which requires the change in the law of each individual EU country has been in place since 2000.
The ECJ decided that during this interim period, legislation should not be implemented which works in the opposite direction to the Directive. Although this was originally a German case, because it was heard by the ECJ and it pays regard to European Directives, the ruling has implications for all other EU countries.
Owen Warnock, a partner at law firm Eversheds, said: "The principle was that age discrimination is contrary to existing European law and so is already illegal. The particular thing in that case was the thing about fixed-term contracts, but it could have been anything else at all, such as people being forced to retire before 65 [years], or employers which only offer benefits to people beyond a particular age. In my view, there are now hundreds of thousands, if not millions of British employees who have suffered age discrimination, and could therefore try and bring a complaint [against employers]."
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