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Санкт-петербу́ргский автобус — система автобусного движения в Санкт-Петербурге. Является важной составной частью транспортного комплекса города, так как обеспечивает перевозку пассажиров внутри города, внутри агломерации и связи с другими городами и странами. Пассажиропоток санкт-петербургской автобусной системы, по данным Росстата, составил 489 млн. человек в 2021 году.

История

До революции

Попытки организовать в столице Российской империи «моторно-омнибусное» пассажирское сообщение предпринимались с 1889 года, но собственно история петербургского автобуса начинается в 1907 году, когда было создано «Санкт-Петербургское товарищество автомобильно-омнибусного сообщения», возглавлявшееся инженером-технологом Б. А. Ивановым. Слово автобус (из «автомобиль + омнибус») вошло в русский язык тогда же и употребляется в газетных сообщениях (поначалу ещё в кавычках). 4 (17) октября 1907 г. состоялся пробный автобусный рейс по Невскому проспекту. 11 (24) ноября открылось пассажирское сообщение по линии Александровский сад — Варшавский и Балтийский вокзалы. Первыми городскими автобусами стали машины фирмы «SAF», специально заказанные для Санкт-Петербурга, — «Gaggenau C 32 — Typ St. Petersburg», а с 1909 г. — также «Gaggenau C 40». Петербург был вторым в России городом, открывшим городской автобусный маршрут, после Архангельска.

Затем открылась вторая линия (Александровский сад — Гороховая улица — Царскосельский вокзал). Парк ТАОС, располагавшийся на Везенбергской улице (ныне — улица Шкапина, 48А), насчитывал в разное время от 8 до 14 машин, использовались автобусы различных моделей (как одноэтажные, так и двухэтажные). Скорость на центральных улицах — 13 км/ч, при меньшем движении 19 км/ч. Стоимость проезда — 9 копеек в первом классе и 6 копеек во втором.

Пассажирское автобусное движение в Петербурге было прекращено незадолго до начала Первой мировой войны в 1914 году по экономическим причинам.

До 1941 года
Войны внешние и внутренние, революции и послевоенная разруха задержали развитие петербургского автобуса на 12 лет. Автобусное движение в Ленинграде возродилось в 1926 году. 8 июля 1926 года открылась первая регулярная автобусная линия Ленинград — Сестрорецк (автобусы итальянского производства SPA 25 C/10), а 1 сентября 1926 года была возрождена первая городская линия от Александровского сада до Витебского вокзала (купленные в Германии 24-местные VOMAG P 30 z). Так как собственной автомобильной промышленности в СССР на тот момент не существовало, автобусы закупались за рубежом. Парк автобусов, несмотря на свою немногочисленность, был очень разнообразным. На маршрутах в Ленинграде можно было одновременно встретить, например, модели Mannesmann-MULAG 3 GN (немецкие), SPA 25 C/10 (итальянские), Leyland GH-7 (английские) и др. Это разнообразие оборачивалось сложностями с поставками запасных частей и частыми поломками, а значит — сбоями в работе маршрутной сети. Однако, уже в 1931 году Авторемонтный завод (АРЗ) получил отечественные грузовые шасси из Ярославля. Тогда же было изготовлено 40 автобусных кузовов Я-6 («русский Лейланд»). В 1932 году из Москвы были получены новые автобусы АМО-4, а позже — ЗИС-8. Уникальным для своего времени был построенный АРЗ на ярославском шасси 100-местный трёхосный автобус ЯА-2. Внутри салон был украшен зеркалами, часами и оконными шторами. Также для пассажиров действовала радиоустановка с динамиками. Этот автобус поступил в ведение «Ленкомтранса» (ныне — СПб ГУП «Пассажиравтотранс») в 1934 году и сразу стал городской легендой. О нём ходили слухи и многие желали проехать по маршруту именно на этой машине. Тем временем, разваливающиеся иномарки списывали, заменяя новыми советскими автобусами. Парк разрастался, насчитывая в 1930 году 28, в 1933 г. — 160, 1934 г. — 255 машин, и уже в 1937 году количество ленинградских автобусов перешагнуло отметку в 500 единиц подвижного состава. Экстерьер новых автобусов старались сделать более обтекаемым, интересным, притягивающим взгляд. Такими были автобусы моделей АЛ-1, АЛ-2, построенные на АРЗ, серийный ЗИС-16, выпускавшийся после реконструкции заводом имени Сталина. Вместе с машинами модернизировалась и система — с 1938 года автобусные перевозки в Ленинграде начали приносить прибыль. В 1939 году был зафиксирован довоенный пик пассажирских перевозок — ежедневный выпуск на линию составил 330 автобусов, по 30 маршрутам были перевезены 123 млн пассажиров.

6 апреля 1938 года в Ленинграде началось движение маршрутных такси. Их трасса делилась на тарифные участки, как и на автобусных маршрутах, но стоимость одной тарифной зоны была дороже — 50 копеек. В разные годы на таксомоторных маршрутах эксплуатировались автомобили М-1, ГАЗ-12, РАФ-977 «Латвия», РАФ-2203.

Великая Отечественная война
С первых дней войны значительная часть автобусов была передана действующей Красной Армии. Оставшиеся поддерживали движение на ряде маршрутов, перевозили раненых, воинские подразделения, эвакуируемых детей к железнодорожным вокзалам. Полностью маршрутное движение в городе остановилось осенью, когда немецко-фашистские войска подошли вплотную к Ленинграду, заняв Пулковские высоты и взяв город в кольцо блокады. Зимой 1942 года ценой невероятных усилий за одну неделю из консервации были выведены 40 городских автобусов Ленинграда. Они 22 января начали работу на ледовой трассе — Дороге жизни. На Ладоге работали две автобусных колонны — второй была московская, состоящая также из 40 автобусов.

Послевоенное время
Восстановление автобусного хозяйства в Ленинграде началось ещё до окончания Великой Отечественной войны. В марте 1945 года началась реконструкция автобусного парка № 1 и возвращавшихся из армии мобилизованных автобусов. В августе был открыт маршрут от ЦПКиО им. Кирова до площади Растрелли. Вскоре было возобновлено движение к Кировскому заводу и «Электросиле». Авторемонтный завод Автотранспортного управления Ленсовета (АТУЛ) в краткие сроки построил и наладил серийный выпуск уникального для СССР автобуса Л-1 — вагонной (бескапотной) компоновки. Всего до 1950 года АТУЛ построил для Ленинграда порядка 200 автобусов в оригинальных кузовах. В 1947 году на улицах города появился ещё один автобус — дизель-электрический ЗИС-154. 60-местная машина обладала множеством прогрессивных решений, была комфортабельной для пассажиров, но имела слишком большой расход топлива и была крайне неэкологичной. А вскоре на улицы города вышел ЗИС-155, ставший самым массовым автобусом 50-х годов. В октябре 1948 года возобновилась работа автобусного парка № 2 на Земледельческой улице. Уже к началу 50-х годов более четырёхсот автобусов обслуживали 37 маршрутов города.

В 50-х годах в Ленинграде была организована центральная диспетчерская служба (ЦДС), благодаря которой автобусы стали работать чётко по расписанию, а взамен сломавшегося в течение нескольких минут на смену выходил подменный автобус. Этот опыт стал образцово-показательным для всей страны. Также в середине 50-х начинает активно развиваться междугороднее автобусное сообщение. В 1957 году на площади Мира (ныне Сенная площадь) в здании «Караульного дома» был открыт автобусный вокзал для обслуживания пассажиров дальних рейсов.

1960-е — 1980-е годы

Город стремительно разрастался. На улицах Ленинграда появился ЗИЛ-158 (позже — ЛиАЗ-158), потом ЛАЗ-695 и многие его модификации. В 1961 году в город начали поступать первые комфортабельные туристические автобусы Ikarus-55 Lux. В 1963 году на улицах Ленинграда проходил испытания опытный сочленённый автобус ЛиАЗ-5Э-676. Но более надёжными были признаны венгерские машины — «гармошки» Ikarus-180, способные перевозить 150 пассажиров одновременно. В 1968 году начались массовые поставки автобуса ЛиАЗ-677. В Санкт-Петербурге автобусы этой модели бессменно проработали до 31 марта 2006 года (38 лет).

В дальнейшем Ленинград закупал преимущественно автобусы моделей Ikarus-280 (до 1997 года) и ЛиАЗ-677 (до 1994 года). К концу 1980-х годов парк ленинградских автобусов достиг максимального количества в 4800 единиц, которые работали в 10 автобусных парках и обслуживали почти 500 маршрутов.

В 1989—1991 годах в Ленинграде тестировали пару автобусов Otomarsan Mercedes-Benz O302T производства Турции. Испытания закончились передачей одной машины обратно в Турцию и продажей другой машины какой-либо организации. В 2020 году один из автобусов Mercedes-Benz O325 осилил дорогу от Ставрополя до музея СПб ГУП «Пассажиравтотранс» за 3 дня, пережив несколько поломок и перегревов.

1990-е — 2010-е годы
Пришедшие в 90-х годах перестройка и экономические реформы негативно сказались на работе пассажирского транспорта. Закупки новой техники в необходимых объёмах прекратились, началось общее старение парка. Попытка приобрести в середине 90-х годов 500 автобусов новой модели ЛиАЗ-5256 не увенчалась успехом — на заводе разразился кризис, а единичная закупка автобусов Ikarus не спасала положение. Росли интервалы, автобусы ходили исключительно переполненными, всё чаще выходили из строя, срывая график движения. Силами Колпинского автобусного парка достраивались кузова автобусов ЛиАЗ-677М, приходившие на предприятие. Проработав около 10 лет, к середине 2000-х годов почти все они были списаны. Ныне один из таких автобусов является музейным.

В 1990-е годы большая часть таксомоторных парков была приватизирована. Так, таксомоторный парк № 3 был преобразован в АО «Третий парк», весь подвижной состав компании был распродан, на вырученные средства приобретены 20 новых микроавтобусов РАФ-2203. В конце XX века на коммерческих маршрутах стали появляться подержанные микроавтобусы Ford Transit, Mercedes-Benz, «ГАЗель». Некоторые микроавтобусы Mercedes поступали в грузовом исполнении, в кузов врезались окна и двери.

В 1992 году произошло разделение автобусных маршрутов на «социальные» и «коммерческие». В 1990-х годах большая часть коммерческих маршрутов обозначались с префиксом или постфиксом «Т-»/«-Т», на них эксплуатировались как автобусы малой, так средней, большой, а в редких случаях даже особо большой вместимости, льготные проездные билеты не принимались. Аналогичное деление позже появилось в Ленинградской области. В 1992 году руководство автобусного парка № 5 «Пассажиравтотранса» приняло решение выпускать на городские маршруты автобусы междугороднего типа (Ikarus 250, Ikarus 256, ЛАЗ-699Р) с отменой льгот. Такие маршруты получили название «автобусы-экспрессы», их номера начинались с префикса «Э-», на маршрутных указателях имелась строка «Коммерческий маршрут» или «Маршрут-экспресс». Первым «экспрессным» маршрутом стал № Э-142 от станции метро «Ленинский проспект» до улицы Маршала Захарова. Позднее такие маршруты работали во многих районах города. С 2001 года номера всех коммерческих маршрутов имели префикс «К-».

С 2000 года за счёт городского бюджета массово стали приобретаться новые автобусы — ЛиАЗ-5256, МАЗ-103 (с 2001 года), НефАЗ-5299 (с 2004 года), Волжанин-6270 (2004), Scania OmniLink (2004—2005).

К середине 2000-х годов значительно увеличилось количество частных перевозчиков. В 2005—2006 годах предприятием «Организатор перевозок», с марта 2005 года контролирующим работу общественного транспорта в Санкт-Петербурге, были проведены конкурсы на многие «социальные», а также «коммерческие» автобусные маршруты, кроме того, значительная часть маршрутов, выходивших на территорию Ленинградской области, была передана в подчинение областного управления по ЖКХ. Вследствие этого, с 2007 года СПб ГУП «Пассажиравтотранс» не является монополистом на рынке пассажирских перевозок. Ныне компанией с наибольшим количеством обслуживаемых маршрутов является ООО «Вест-Сервис».

Современное состояние

Первый маршрут электробуса

В конце 2017 года начата реализация проекта по оптимизации троллейбусной маршрутной сети и переводу части маршрутов на электробусы с подзарядкой в движении. Для работы нового подвижного состава было принято решение продлить трассы существующих троллейбусных маршрутов в места, где отсутствует контактная сеть. В ноябре-декабре 2017 года город получил первые машины Тролза-5265.02 и Тролза-5265.08 (семейство «Мегаполис»), а позже — белорусские АКСМ-32100D.

Почти год спустя, в октябре 2018 года СПб ГУП «Пассажиравтотранс» объявил аукцион на поставку партии из 10 автобусов, работающих на электрической аккумуляторной тяге, а первым маршрутом для работы нового вида транспорта был выбран автобусный маршрут № 128, обслуживаемый автобусным парком № 2. Приоритетной разновидностью техники была выбрана модель электробуса в ONC-исполнении (с ночной зарядкой в парке). Единственным поставщиком стала компания «Волгабас», ранее поставившая городу несколько партий автобусов с дизельным и газовым двигателем. 29 декабря 2018 года СПб ГУП «Пассажиравтотранс» получил в распоряжение все 10 электробусов модели Volgabus-5270.E0 (в рестайлинговом варианте), предназначенных для автобусного парка № 2. На территории автобусного парка установлено 5 зарядных станций с зарядкой пистолетного типа. Тестовые обкатки электробусов без пассажиров начались в феврале 2019 года на автобусном маршруте № 128.

19 марта 2019 года на автобусном маршруте № 128 началась эксплуатация электробусов с пассажирами. В настоящее время СПб ГУП «Пассажиравтотранс» является единственным предприятием в Санкт-Петербурге, эксплуатирующим электробусы на постоянной основе.

Отказ от «коммерческих» маршрутов. «Новая модель транспортного обслуживания»
Планы по отказу от «коммерческих маршрутов» озвучивались в правительстве Санкт-Петербурга с 2007 года. 1 августа 2018 года на заседании Комитета по транспорту Санкт-Петербурга было объявлено о переходе общественного транспорта города на регулируемый тариф с 1 июля 2020 года. Частные транспортные компании будут получать субсидии из бюджета по аналогии с «социальными» маршрутами (на конкурсной основе). Планировалось, что в результате реформы на всех маршрутах с июля 2020 года будут приниматься все виды льгот, а также будут запрещены остановки «по требованию». Кроме того, к перевозчикам были предъявлены новые требования по оснащению подвижного состава, не выдвигавшиеся ранее — среди них полная низкопольность, наличие в салонах валидаторов на поручнях, информационных систем, систем кондиционирования воздуха. Ряд маршрутов впервые был запланирован с работой автобусов малого и среднего классов (прежде в требованиях к подвижному составу для «социальных» маршрутов указывался только большой класс). Впоследствии переход автобусных перевозчиков на регулируемый тариф, позже названный «новой моделью транспортного обслуживания», был отложен на 2022 год и разбит на три этапа — 1 апреля, 1 июня и 15 июля. В ходе подготовки к объявлению аукционов на обслуживание маршрутов было сформировано новое требование к перевозчикам — весь их подвижной состав (кроме автобусов малого класса) должен работать на природном газе (сжиженном или компримированном; вид топлива определён Комитетом по транспорту отдельно по каждому маршруту).

Первый этап замены «коммерческих» маршрутов на «социальные» начался 1 апреля 2022 года. 33 «коммерческих» маршрута, а также 3 дублирующих «социальных» маршрута были закрыты.

С 15 июля 2022 года все коммерческие маршруты подчинения Комитета по транспорту Санкт-Петербурга прекратили работу. При этом, новые автобусы вышли не на все маршруты: в связи со сбоями в поставках на ряд маршрутов перевозчика ООО «Вест-Сервис» вместо новых автобусов на газе вышли дизельные автобусы 2015—2020 годов поставки (около 15 % подвижного состава). В итоге, обновление подвижного состава ООО «Вест-Сервис» было завершено к 15 ноября 2022 года. При этом поставка новых машин на декабрь 2022 года ещё не завершена полностью, на многих маршрутах компании имеется недовыпуск подвижного состава на линию из-за его нехватки.

Маршруты

Городские маршруты
Автобусные маршруты обеспечивают транспортное сообщение внутри Санкт-Петербурга. При этом некоторая часть маршрутов выходит за пределы города на территорию Ленинградской области. Действует 387 городских маршрутов. Для проезда в автобусах всех городских маршрутов с посадкой и высадкой пассажиров только в установленных остановочных пунктах действительны проездные билеты длительного пользования разных видов.

Почти все городские маршруты имеют номера, лежащие в интервале от 1 до 399. Маршруты с номерами 301—399, как правило, проходят по территории пригородных районов города (Пушкинского, Колпинского, Курортного, Петродворцового) или идут из города в такие районы.

Местные маршруты Кронштадта и Ломоносова имеют свою нумерацию маршрутов в интервале 1—7 (с литерами «Кр» и «Л» соответственно; до середины 2000-х годов эти литеры отсутствовали).

Все автобусные маршруты подчинения Комитета по транспорту Санкт-Петербурга имеют фиксированную стоимость проезда вне зависимости от дальности поездки (с 1 января 2023 года — 65 ₽).

Ночные маршруты
Исторически Санкт-Петербург, расположенный на множестве островов в дельте реки Невы, соединялся в единую транспортную сеть посредством мостов. Однако, судоходность реки Невы не позволяла эксплуатировать мосты круглосуточно во время навигации, так как для прохода судов требовалось разведение переправ, в связи с чем летними ночами сухопутное транспортное сообщение между различными районами временно прерывалось, что создавало сложности для горожан и гостей города.

В июне 2012 года представители Санкт-Петербургского молодёжного отделения политической партии «Яблоко» запустили проект «Метро24», в рамках которого собирались подписи за продление обслуживания пассажиропотоков петербургским метрополитеном на 1 час в краткосрочной перспективе и за круглосуточную работу в долгосрочной. Проект был встречен критикой со стороны молодых сотрудников СПб ГУП «Петербургский метрополитен», которые, в частности, упрекнули «Молодёжное Яблоко» в отсутствии трезвого экономического расчёта. В том числе, было отмечено: «…На самом деле метро и так работает круглосуточно. По ночам, когда нет пассажиров, проводятся регламентные работы». Кроме того, было подсчитано, что продление работы метро всего на 1 час обойдётся бюджету города в 1,4 млн рублей, а пассажиропоток уже в интервале от 00:00 до 00:15 составляет всего 1500 пассажиров. Таким образом, стало очевидным, что круглосуточное пассажирское сообщение между различными частями города метрополитен обеспечить не в состоянии.

В связи с этим Комитет по транспорту Санкт-Петербурга разработал проект ночного автобусного сообщения, предусматривающий запуск пяти автобусных маршрутов, дублирующих линии метрополитена в ночное время. Номер маршрута соответствует линии, которую он дублирует, а буква «М» является сокращением от «метрополитен». 1 июля 2012 года на ночные улицы Петербурга вышли 70 автобусов, работавших с 0:00 до 5:30 утра с интервалом в 15 минут. Новые маршруты являются достаточно востребованными — за первые выходные без разводки мостов 2012 года ночные автобусы перевезли 1300 пассажиров, а в новогодние каникулы 2013 года их услугами воспользовались 7300 человек. С мая 2013 года для соединения части ночных автобусных маршрутов (№№ 2Мб, 4М, 4Мб, 5Ма, 5Мб) через Неву в период навигации запущено движение ночных поездов-челноков в метро, а маршруты ночного автобусного сообщения частично изменены с подъездом к станциям «Адмиралтейская» и «Спортивная».

С 2014 по 2019 год пять ночных автобусных маршрутов курсировали с 30 апреля по 15 ноября в ночи с пятницы на субботу, с субботы на воскресенье и в некоторые праздники.

В 2020 году регулярные ночные маршруты не работали в связи с пандемией COVID-19. На 2023 год их работа так и не была возобновлена. При этом, в рамках специальных мероприятий в Санкт-Петербурге, могут запускаться временные ночные маршруты (например, №№ Ц-1 — Ц-3 в рамках акции «Ночь музеев»); в отдельных случаях может быть продлена работа регулярных дневных маршрутов.

Пригородные маршруты
Автобусы пригородных маршрутов осуществляют транспортные связи Санкт-Петербурга с прилегающими районами Ленинградской области. Как правило, они имеют нумерацию в интервале 400—692А; исключениями являются маршруты города Санкт-Петербурга № 247, продённый до остановки «Юкки-2» в деревне Юкки (Всеволожский район Ленинградской области), а также № 415Ш (в отличие от других пригородных маршрутов, данный маршрут не покидает административные границы Санкт-Петербурга).

По заказу Комитета по транспорту Санкт-Петербурга действует 60 пригородных маршрутов с посадкой и высадкой пассажиров только в установленных остановочных пунктах, на которых используются автобусы малой, средней и большой вместимости. Для проезда в автобусах пригородных маршрутов города Санкт-Петербурга с посадкой и высадкой пассажиров только в установленных остановочных пунктах действительны проездные билеты длительного пользования разных видов (аналогично городским автобусам города Санкт-Петербурга).

Также на территорию Санкт-Петербурга заходят пригородные автобусные маршруты, работающие по заказу комитета по транспорту и транспортной инфраструктуре Ленинградской области. В отличие от маршрутов подчинения Санкт-Петербурга, областные маршруты делятся на «социальные» и «коммерческие» (как и городские до июля 2022 года).

Междугородные и международные маршруты

По состоянию на июнь 2019 года действует около 80 междугородных и международных маршрутов, большинство из которых отправляется от автобусного вокзала (набережная Обводного канала, 36) и автостанции «Парнас» у одноимённой станции метро. Также действует Северный автовокзал, который расположен вблизи Санкт-Петербурга, а именно у станции метро «Девяткино». Имеют нумерацию в интервале 700—969, некоторые междугородние и международные маршруты автобуса имеют четырёхзначную нумерацию.

Большинство маршрутов связывают город Санкт-Петербург с городами Ленинградской, Новгородской, Псковской и Вологодской областей, Республикой Карелия, а также с Республикой Беларусь, Украиной, Финляндией, Латвией и Эстонией.

Подвижной состав

Малый класс
 ГАЗель City — ООО «Вест-Сервис», АО «Третий парк», ООО «Такси»

Средний класс
 ЛиАЗ-4292 — СПб ГУП «Пассажиравтотранс»

 Volgabus-4298 — ООО «Вест-Сервис», ООО «Такси»

 МАЗ-206 — АО «Третий парк», ООО «Домтрансавто»

Большой класс
 ЛиАЗ-5292 — СПб ГУП «Пассажиравтотранс», АО «Третий парк»

 НЕФАЗ-5299 — СПб ГУП «Пассажиравтотранс», АО «Третий парк»

 Volgabus-5270 — СПб ГУП «Пассажиравтотранс», ООО «Вест-Сервис»

 МАЗ-103 — СПб ГУП «Пассажиравтотранс»

 МАЗ-203 — СПб ГУП «Пассажиравтотранс», ООО «Домтрансавто», АО «Третий парк»

Особо большой класс
 МАЗ-216 — СПб ГУП «Пассажиравтотранс»

 Volgabus-6271 — СПб ГУП «Пассажиравтотранс»

 ЛиАЗ-6213 — СПб ГУП «Пассажиравтотранс»

Автобусные предприятия

Действующие на маршрутах по заказу Санкт-Петербурга
 СПб ГУП «Пассажиравтотранс» — Полюстровский проспект, 39 (юридический адрес)
Автобусный парк № 1 — Днепропетровская улица, 18
 Автобусный парк № 2 — Автобусная улица, 8
 Автобусный парк № 3 — Хрустальная улица, 22
 Автобусный парк № 4 (закрыт в 2005 году) — Наличная улица, 24
 Автобусный парк № 5 — проспект Стачек, 108
 Автобусный парк № 6 — улица Стасовой, 14. На территории автобусного парка функционирует учебный комбинат
 Автобусный парк № 7 — Кубинская улица, 86
 Колпинский автобусный парк — Колпино, Финляндская улица, 22
 Медико-санитарная часть № 70 — улица Комсомола, 12

 ООО «Вест-Сервис» (входит в ХТК «Питеравто») — Петергоф, Гостилицкое шоссе, 137А, пом. 1-Н, каб. 62 (юридический адрес)
 Площадка Петергоф — Петергоф, Гостилицкое шоссе, 137А
 Площадка Пушкин — Пушкин, Гусарская улица, 16
 Площадка Энергетиков — шоссе Революции, 58А
 Площадка Салова — улица Салова, 48
 АО «Третий парк» — Белоостровская улица, 19Б (юридический адрес)
 Площадка ГАТП-21 — Витебский проспект, 9
 Площадка Горская — Лисий Нос, Приморское шоссе, 140, корп. 3
 Площадка Зеленогорск — Зеленогорск, Выборгская улица, 12
 ООО «Такси» (входит в ХТК «Питеравто») — Московский проспект, 91А, пом. 10Н, оф. 302 (юридический адрес); Фаянсовая улица, 18
 ООО «Домтрансавто» —  Московская область, городской округ Домодедово, город Домодедово, Станционная улица, 13, эт. 1, пом. 2 (юридический адрес)
 Колпино — Колпино, Колпинская улица, 8
 Екатерининский — Екатерининский проспект, 3
 ЛЭМЗ — Петергофское шоссе, 67

Действующие на маршрутах по заказу Ленинградской области
 ХТК «Питеравто» (ООО «Питеравто», ООО «Вест-Сервис», ООО «Такси», ООО «Транс-Балт»)
 Площадка Гатчина — Ленинградская область, Гатчина, улица Хохлова, 6
 Площадка Петергоф — Петергоф, Гостилицкое шоссе, 137А
 Площадка Приозерск — Ленинградская область, Приозерский район, Приозерск, Выборгская улица, 31
 Площадка Тосно — Ленинградская область, Тосненский район, Тосно, Московское шоссе, 2Б
 Площадка Энергетиков — шоссе Революции, 58А
 Площадка Салова — улица Салова, 48
 ООО «Петербургская транспортная компания» — Витебский проспект, 9Л, пом. 6-Н, каб. № 2 (юридический адрес)
 Головное (Витебский проспект, 9)
 ООО «АТП Барс-2» — Пушкин, улица Глинки, 3 (юридический адрес)
 Сертоловский филиал — Ленинградская область, Всеволожский район, Сертолово, Заречная улица, 2
 Сосновоборский филиал — Ленинградская область, Сосновый Бор, Копорское шоссе, 27
 ООО «Пальмира» — улица Руставели, 75А, пом. 1-Н, оф. 1 (юридический адрес)
 Волховский филиал — Ленинградская область, Волховский район, Волхов, улица Маяковского, 13
 Всеволожский филиал — Ленинградская область, Всеволожский район, Всеволожск, Лиственная улица, 16
 Лодейнопольский филиал — Ленинградская область, Лодейнопольский район, Лодейное Поле, улица имени Дмитрия Арсенова, 1А, корп. 4
 Пикалёвский филиал — Ленинградская область, Бокситогорский район, Пикалёво, Ленинградское шоссе, 76
 Приозерский филиал — Ленинградская область, Приозерский район, Приозерск, улица Калинина, 51; Ленинградская область, Приозерский район, Сосново, улица Механизаторов, 11
 Тихвинский филиал — Ленинградская область, Тихвинский район, Тихвин, улица Карла Маркса, 120
 ООО «АТП-31» — Сабировская улица, 41А, каб. 31 (юридический адрес); Ленинградская область, Гатчина, Красносельское шоссе, 7
 ООО «М.А.К.С.», ООО «НеваТранс» — Таллинская улица, 5А, пом. 319 (юридический адрес); Лапинский проспект, 3П
 МТП «Грузино» — Ленинградская область, Всеволожский район, деревня Куйвози, п/о (юридический адрес)
 ООО «Никкос» —  Ленинградская область, Всеволожский район, Колтушское сельское поселение, деревня Старая, Верхняя улица, 13А, офис 4-Н (юридический адрес)
 ООО «Автоалдис» — Ленинградская область, Всеволожский район, Кальтино, Колтушское шоссе, 8
 ООО «Невская линия» — Ленинградская область, Кировский район, Отрадное, Благодатная улица, 2В
 АО «Третий парк» — Белоостровская улица, 19Б (юридический адрес)
 Площадка Горская — Лисий Нос, Приморское шоссе, 140, корп. 3

Прекратившие работу в 2022 году
 ООО «Автолайн» — Таллинское шоссе (Старо-Паново), 198, корп. 2, лит. А, пом. 1-Н, ч. п. 14 (юридический адрес); Земская улица, 67
 ООО «5 парк» — Ириновский проспект, 24, корп. 1, лит. А, пом. 1-Н, ком. 9 (юридический адрес); Ржевская улица, 38
 ООО Шпунт «Северо-Запад» — Бухарестская улица, 8, лит. А, пом. 1-Н-106 оф. 168 (юридический адрес)

Оплата проезда

Городские и пригородные автобусы города Санкт-Петербурга
С 1 января 2023 года стоимость разового проезда в городском автобусе при оплате проезда наличными средствами или банковской картой составляет 65₽.  В автобусах СПб ГУП «Пассажиравтотранс» проезд оплачивается кондуктору или водителю (при отсутствии кондуктора). На маршрутах, работающих по новым контрактам, возможность оплаты проезда наличными средствами непосредственно в салоне отсутствует; для оплаты одной поездки необходимо приобрести разовый QR-билет. Разовый QR-билет, действительный в течение трёх дней после приобретения, можно приобрести в кассах метрополитена, офисах СПб ГКУ «Организатор перевозок», приложении BSTR или в чат-боте в Telegram (в автобусах, работающих по такой системе, имеются информационные стикеры на каждой двери, оповещающие об этом). После посадки в автобус QR-билет необходимо отсканировать, поднеся его под сканер, находящийся под валидатором. Вход и выход осуществляется через все двери автобуса.

Оплата проезда по бесконтактной смарт-карте или банковской картой осуществляется путем её прикладывания к стационарному валидатору, установленному на поручнях в количестве нескольких штук в салоне автобуса. В автобусах СПб ГУП «Пассажиравтотранс», ООО «Вест-Сервис» и ООО «Такси» одной банковской картой возможно оплатить проезд не более 5 раз (кроме того, в автобусах этих перевозчиков возможно осуществить удалённое пополнение карты «Подорожник»). При наличии кондуктора провалидированную ЕЭБ пассажир должен предъявить кондуктору для её проверки ручным валидатором. Аналогичные требования действуют и для льготных категорий граждан, с дополнительным предъявлением документа, подтверждающего право на льготный проезд.

Стоимость проезда в коммерческом автобусе (до запуска НМТО) зависела от тарифа, установленного перевозчиком, и варьировалась от 29 до 131 рубля (также действовали собственные тарифные зоны). На коммерческих маршрутах также была доступна оплата проезда картой «Подорожник», но исключительно по тарифу «электронного кошелька» (многопоездочные, комбинированные, единые и суточные билеты были недействительны). В этом случае оплата проезда производилась непосредственно путём прикладывания карты к ручному валидатору у водителя (кондуктора).

Контроль оплаты проезда осуществляется инспекторами СПб ГКУ «Организатор перевозок». Штраф за неоплаченный проезд — 500 ₽, при этом Комитет по транспорту объявил о подготовке поправок в Закон Санкт-Петербурга «Об административных правонарушениях в Санкт-Петербурге» об увеличении размера штрафа до 2500 ₽. На данный момент документ находится на стадии согласования.

1 апреля 2022 года СПб ГКУ «Организатор перевозок» объявил о запуске первого этапа «Новой модели транспортного обслуживания Санкт-Петербурга». 97 маршрутов (как новых, так и изменённых) заработали по новым правилам: только новые автобусы, открытие всех дверей на остановках, бескондукторное обслуживание, оплата проезда всеми действующими видами электронных проездных билетов, банковской картой, QR-билетом (система QR-билетов разработана ООО «СберТройка»; 26 июля 2022 года был запущен чат-бот в Telegram), отсутствие наличных платежей в салоне автобуса. На маршрутах № 200, 201, 210, 211, 213, 215, 216, 273, 278 и на пригородных маршрутах зонный тариф заменён единым общегородским тарифом: 40₽ (44₽ с 01.01.2023) при оплате «Подорожником», 60₽ (65₽ с 01.01.2023, кроме карт МИР и ЕКП) при оплате по «гостевому» тарифу, независимо от дальности поездки.

Исторически на пригородных маршрутах, работавших по заказу Ленинграда (позже Санкт-Петербурга), никакие виды проездных билетов не принимались, оплата проезда была возможна исключительно наличными, причём стоимость проезда зависела от дальности поездки (до 1 апреля 2022 года, перед отменой тарифных зон, границы стоимости проезда на пригородных маршрутах находились в пределах от 22 до 202 рублей. Кроме того, до этой же даты зонные тарифы действовали на маршрутах № 200—299, кроме № 229). С 1 января 2021 года на пригородные маршруты было распространено действие школьных и пенсионных проездных билетов, а также билета «Подорожник» (для последнего — также с зонной системой оплаты проезда), с июля 2021 года  — студенческие ЕЭБ. С 1 апреля 2022 года, в рамках «Новой модели транспортного обслуживания», порядок оплаты проезда на пригородных маршрутах (работающих по заказу комитета по транспорту Санкт-Петербурга) унифицирован с остальными городскими маршрутами (в том числе отменены тарифные зоны).

Пригородные автобусы Ленинградской области
Зонная система оплаты проезда встречается на пригородных маршрутах, работающих по заказу комитета по транспорту Ленинградской области. Из проездных билетов на таких маршрутах принимаются только пенсионные (причём как Санкт-Петербурга, так и Ленинградской области), на ряде маршрутов также принимаются ЕЭБ «Подорожник», а также «Тройка» (с 2021 года в порядке эксперимента на маршрутах №№ к-401а и к-403). Губернатор Ленинградской области также заявил о том, что карта «Тройка» будет внедряться по всей Ленинградской области.

Примечания

Ссылки
 Автобусные маршруты на карте городского транспорта Санкт-Петербурга
 СПб ГКУ «Организатор перевозок»
 Старый портал общественного транспорта Санкт-Петербурга (последнее обновление: 26 августа 2022)
 Комитет «Петербуржцы — за общественный транспорт» (последнее обновление: 20 мая 2013)
 Автобусная фотогалерея на сайте «Твой транспорт»
 Онлайн-мониторинг автобусов Санкт-Петербурга

Автобусные системы России


text:
Q: Subtract row values of 2 columns within same table in SQL query I'm trying to subtract the row values of 2 different columns in the same table.
Table schema
--------------------------------------------
id | com  | type | refund | support | status
--------------------------------------------
1  | 1.17 | res  | 0.00   | NULL    | 0
2  | 3.00 | sys  | 1.85   | 12      | 1
3  | 4.00 | sys  | 0.00   | NULl    | 0
4  | 8.00 | par  | 2.00   | 28      | 1

I want to subtract com - refund if support column is not NULL and status = 1
Output should be like as
------------
id | output
------------
2  | 1.15 |
4  | 6.00 |

A: Try this:
SELECT ID, (COM - REFUND) AS OUTPUT
FROM TABLE_NAME
WHERE SUPPORT IS NOT NULL AND STATUS = 1;

The 'as output' names the column in your result set. The where statement filters out your rows by the conditions you have given. The FROM clause tells on which table to execute the query. You have to put your own table name.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


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text:
Bringing the Best Business Model to Everyone on the Planet
We have been to the mountain top! We have seen the future!
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We love subscriptions in all their forms and have to tell the world.
We want to make subscriptions accessible in a way that they never have been before. Sure, that means that we have to build an unbelievable technology platform.
But that also means that we need to bring enlightenment to the world at large.
Luckily we're passionate subscription zealots who couldn't hide our excitement if we tried.
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A subscription business owner makes their money by preventing customers from leaving. What's the only way to prevent customers from leaving? Improving customer experience. The subscription business model itself produces better customer experiences.
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We believe that subscription business models are the best business models in the universe. Period.
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Cratejoy subscription stores give consumers great first experiences with subscription businesses. Consumers have complete control over their purchases. They never fall prey to unsavory business practices on Cratejoy. And they have a delightful shopping experience and are never left wondering when their products will arrive. Our new subscription marketplace makes it easy and fun to discover new subscriptions.
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Alex and I have been working together for a long time.
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Amir Elaguizy
Amir is a builder with a passion for quality. He has been building software for almost as long as he's been alive. Before founding Cratejoy he was founder and CTO of MarketZero (acquired by Zynga in 2011). At Zynga he worked as a game CTO helping to build the Zynga Poker and Zynga Bingo franchise. He's an alumni of Y Combinator. His hobbies include writing artificial intelligence software and running while sending e-mails.
@amirpc
Alex Morse
Alex was born to be the chief programmer at Cratejoy. If you left Alex on a desert island and came back in a year the natives would be designing websites on coconut computers and he'd be elected dictator for life. He was an Architect at MarketZero and then served as a game CTO at Zynga where he built the Zynga slots game. He's an alumni of Y Combinator. In his spare time he's a photographer, a gardener, and likes to drive obscenely small cars really fast.
@AlexMorse
E-mail us at hello@cratejoy.com to get in touch.
801 Barton Springs Rd, TX 78704
Why Subscriptions?
Letter from the Founders

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
Paulo Dybala wants lifetime contract at Juventus despite Manchester United and Barcelona interest
Juventus will make "big financial sacrifice" to keep the Argentine at the club.
By Tony Mogan
October 7, 2017 14:46 BST
Paulo Dybala has told Juventus he wants to remain at the club for the rest of his career with the Serie A champions prepared to make a "big financial sacrifice" to make that happen.
Manchester United have already made enquiries into signing the 23-year-old, according to the Sunday Mirror, who report chief executive Ed Woodward has made it clear to Dybala's management team that Jose Mourinho wants him at Old Trafford.
'I don't think Manchester City or Manchester United are great defensively' says Liverpool legend Kevin Keegan
Manchester United transfer news: Red Devils confident of agreeing new deal with Marouane Fellaini
Liverpool defender Andy Robertson ready to risk further injury to help Scotland book play-off place
But any attempts to sign the Argentina international are likely to be rivalled by Spain's big two. According to Mundo Deportivo, Real Madrid president Florentino Perez has earmarked Dybala as their next 'Galactico' signing, while the same publication reported in July that Barcelona have a first option to sign him for around €120m (£110.4m, $143m) thanks to a special clause insisted upon by the player when he signed a new contract in April.
Dybala is only five months into that new deal but a new offer is already on the horizon, with Juventus managing director Giuseppe Marotta claiming the player is pushing for a lifetime contract with the club that would surely end United, Real and Barcelona's hopes of prising him away from Italy.
"He is priceless, because we are not a selling club," Marotta told La Stampa. "I always repeat that a player has his future in his hands and Paulo just said he wants to tie himself to our club for life.
"That means we will make another big financial sacrifice to keep him. We will soon lock him down to a new contract - it's what he asked us for."
Dybala was heavily touted as a possible replacement for Neymar at Barcelona during the summer transfer window. A poll conducted at the time by Mundo Deportivo - a publication mainly read by Barcelona fans - revealed the forward was the supporter's No.1 candidate to replace the Brazil ace ahead of Ousmane Dembele, Antoine Griezmann and Kylian Mbappe.
Dybala has been in sensational form for Juventus this season, scoring 12 goals in just 10 appearances. He is currently away on international duty with Argentina and is expected to be back in action for Juventus against Lazio on Saturday 14 October.
Related topics : Manchester United FC Real Madrid Juventus Premier League


text:
SPECIAL INTERVIEW: Charlie Straw
THEAUSSIEWORD.COM catches up with UK artist Charlie Straw.
How and where did it all begin for you? What drew your interest to the music industry?
If I'm honest, I don't remember there being a specific point that I "began", but I do remember my first gig. It was in Leeds (where I was studying at Uni) at the Cockpit in 2013. So many huge and amazing acts had played that venue whilst they were small and seeing their photos on the wall probably made me think that being a musician could be possible.
What motivates or influences you in your quest to make great music?
Whilst I often hear songs that make me want to rush to my guitar and start writing, I think my motivation comes from a need to write document what I'm going through at any given point. It's sort of like keeping a diary. Going through my voice notes and listening to all the sketches of songs is probably the best way to find out everything about me.
What are your biggest goals you hope to accomplish as an artist?
"Living is what you do whilst you're making other plans" from John Lennon's song 'Beautiful Boy' springs to mind here. For a while I had fixed goals that I became obsessed with achieving, and when I didn't achieve them instantly became really disillusioned. This didn't seem like a healthy way to go about things. So now I try not to focus on goals and enjoy things as they happen.
What can we expect from you in the coming months? Any plans to tour?
You can expect more music throughout spring and into summer. The plans are starting to form for another London headline show, but nothing is for certain yet!
Tell us a bit about your latest release and how would you best describe your music?
Broken Paradise was written for someone very close to me that going through a tough time. I wanted to keep their spirits up and let them know that I'll be there to supported them no matter how tough it is. It is definitely a song that sonically-informed what my new music sound like. I would describe my music as roadtrip-friendly songs that aim to connect with as many people as possible.
Give us an insight into your creative process. What gets you writing songs?
It can really be anything. Broken Paradise, for example, was born out of a conversation I had with the two people I wrote it with (Kat Eaton & Nick Atkinson). But, quite often it's sat on the end of my bed late at night where songs seem to bubble to the surface.
Is there a hidden meaning in any of your music?
I wouldn't say any meaning are hidden, but sometimes if I find something too personal or it sounds insincere to speak directly, I will use metaphors and other things to dress up messages.
Success, what is the secret to it?
I hoping it's never to give up.
What has been your biggest career highlight so far?
Selling out my first ever headline show and getting a standing ovation at the end. I'll never forget that.
Which stars of the music industry do you find inspiring?
I think how Nick Mulvey navigates the music industry is very inspiring. He seems really genuine. It's also hard not to admire what Dirty Hit are doing as a label. Everything they're putting out is super interesting and (as a graphic designer myself) the artwork is consistently incredible.
Name a few of your favourite Australian artists.
Hollow Coves, Matt Corby and Nick Murphy
The shape of the music industry has changed significantly over the years, including the use of social media, how do you feel about the industry as a whole and what does it mean to you in getting your records out into the public eye?
The music industry seems to have shifted so now artist are more incontrol than ever. I can put out music when I think it's right, work with who I want and write about what I need to. Therefore, I feel pretty good about the industry! It'll be interesting to see how the new freedom artists have changes the quality/quantity of music over the next 10 years.
How do you plan on cracking the international market?
Spotify great for reaching other countries. I remember waking up one morning to find a song of mine had gone viral in Turkey, it was very surreal!
Do you collaborate with others? Who is on your wish-list?
Recently I've been trying to collaborate with more and more people. I've found it has really helped the quality of music and maes the process way more fun. In terms of dream musicians, people like Justin Vernon and Aaron Dessner (The National) seem to have an amazing approach to collaboration.
A message for your fans. How do you best interact and respond with your fans?
I think interacting on a personal level is the best way to go around communicating with fans. Posting on facebook is very one-way. Sending a private message and starting a conversation or speaking after a show is far more powerful that simply liking or re-tweeting.
www.charliestraw.co.uk
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text:
Home	Board index Genii General
ERDNASE
Discuss general aspects of Genii.
lybrary
Joined: March 31st, 2013, 4:59 pm
Contact lybrary
Re: ERDNASE
Postby lybrary » August 2nd, 2015, 11:45 am
Bill found Edward Gallaway mentioned 4 times in the Delphos Herald. Thanks for sharing those with me. They provide new information and confirming support for two things addressed earlier:
1) One instance mentions that he has learned the "printer's art" at the Herald and that Edward "has attained the top round of the ladder in his profession". To me this confirms that he was a bright and ambitious person which I tend to believe matches Erdnase's character traits. But before anybody screams, this is of course not proof of anything and I will not put it on any list. It just fits the story line in my mind.
2) Another one mentions that he attended a German class in the last year of his Middle School. It appears that he learned German as a foreign language, which makes the Erdnase "Earth Nose" nickname or ethnic slur theory rise to the top in my mind. At the very least Gallaway might have settled for Erdnase because of its German ring, regardless of how he came up with it. It is of course also possible that his teacher or his classmates gave him the nickname Erdnase.
Not related to what Bill found, but something I discovered with respect to a possible Dalrymple connection is that both the Dalrymple and Gallaway/Galloway families trace back to Scotland to the same region. There is historical political wrangling between the Earl of Galloway and the Dalrymple family you can read about here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wigtown_Burghs_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Again not proof, but at least it opens the possibility that the Gallaway and Dalrymple families are connected somewhere.
Last edited by lybrary on August 2nd, 2015, 11:55 am, edited 2 times in total.
Lybrary.com Magic & Gambling
preserving magic one book at a time
Postby Tom Sawyer » August 2nd, 2015, 11:51 am
Re a few posts back . . .
Brad, regarding W.E. Sanders's interest (or lack thereof) in magic, it is hard to disagree with most of what you said in your most recent post in this thread. Logically, the Mutus Nomen trick does not add up to much. It is similar to the evidence that Edwin Sumner Andrews played cards, which we know from the "Pippins" article.
On the other hand, there are a few reasons why I actually like that type of evidence in a case like the Sanders case.
First, it has a sort of symbiotic relationship with some of the other evidence relating to Sanders, like the fact that both Sanders and Del Adelphia were closely connected with Montana. Another related fact has to do with Sanders's comments in a journal (I think when he was a boy), relating to a magic performance he had seen, and his being able to figure out the secrets. This was mentioned in Marty Demarest's Montana article.
Then, of course, I apply a kind of "iceberg reasoning," to the effect that if we see these manifestations, there must be ten times that much similar stuff that we don't have evidence of.
Lastly, in the Erdnase case, it is pretty traditional to make evidence do things that it has a very hard time doing, because there is so little solid evidence on different things.
For example, we sort of assume that McKinney printed the book, based principally on the very weak fact that his name and address appear multiple times on the copyright application.
This is NOT the way you would want to prove that in the real world.
Marty Demarest went into that McKinney issue in much more depth on this thread a few days ago, in a post which unfortunately was probably missed by a lot of people because of the flood of recent posts on this thread.
Once you are through analyzing the Mutus Nomen part of the case, it is a small part of the W.E. Sanders case, but to me it is a very helpful to the Sanders case. I actually have one or two other thoughts on the Mutus Nomen situation, but I think these are my main points about it.
One other thing about it -- whether one likes the Mutus Nomen bit or not, to me it is a colorful and fun fact in the realm of Erdnase facts, factoids, and pseudo-facts in which much of the information is rather dry.
Anyway, the above is not to say anything about the strength or weakness of the W.E. Sanders case overall -- it's mainly to discuss one way of looking at certain kinds of evidence.
--Tom
At least for the time being, I have taken down my S.W. Erdnase blog.
Brad Henderson
Postby Brad Henderson » August 2nd, 2015, 1:18 pm
Tom, I worry you may have taken the intent of my post a little beyond what was intended. . I too think the mutus nomen reference is very interesting. I just don't think from that ALONE we can posit a larger interest in magic as a whole. THAT is the conclusion that I think may be over reaching ESPECIALLY given then fact that mutus nomen is one of those perennial tricks that lots of non magicians know.
to bob, that we only have one notation of one trick undermines the conclusion he would have a high interest. If he had a high interest we would likely have seen more notes and scribbles about magic tricks.
Brad Henderson magician in Austin Texas
Bob Coyne
Favorite Magician: Charlies
Postby Bob Coyne » August 2nd, 2015, 2:08 pm
Brad Henderson wrote: to bob, that we only have one notation of one trick undermines the conclusion he would have a high interest. If he had a high interest we would likely have seen more notes and scribbles about magic tricks.
He had high enough interest to write it down. That's the point I'm making. That indicates a level of interest that is higher than most people and as a result makes him much more likely to have written the book than a person chosen at random.
Regarding seeing more notes and scribbles, that depends on how much of his notes and notebooks are actually still available. Marty wrote that whole sections were removed. But, in any case, I think it is very significant that the notes we have contain a) the key to the nomen mutus trick and b) a packing list that included decks of playing cards and c) mention in his diaries of figuring out the tricks in a magic show that he saw!
btw, it would be useful if his notebooks were available in digital form for all to see. Has anyone thought of doing that?
JHostler
Postby JHostler » August 2nd, 2015, 5:35 pm
Digressing for just a moment…
I'm curious how anagram fans – at least those who believe the author considered the reversal (or rearrangement) of his name an effective strategy for masking his identity – reconcile this notion with the author's apparent intelligence. Even David Ben's otherwise excellent Magicol piece hit this snag (ref. "He also decided to write the book under a pseudonym… so that he could maintain his job with his employer, and the cover it provided him to cheat in games.")
Cold logic dictates that the author [assuming there was only one] was either 1) an Andrews who wanted to be known (and make a bit of mischief in the process), or 2) someone without that name who intended to lead the curious down a rabbit hole. Either is equally plausible… but what makes no sense is someone with a triple-digit IQ attempting to preserve anonymity by reversing their last name. That this is such a fundamental (if not mundane) proposition makes it no less a powerful argument against one or two of the top contenders...
R. Eltsohj
Last edited by JHostler on August 2nd, 2015, 5:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Explanations exist; they have existed for all time; there is always a well-known solution to every human problem — neat, plausible, and wrong." H.L. Mencken
Bob. it only proves he had an interest in THAT card trick. You will need much more to convince people he had an interest in magic as a whole.
Brad Henderson wrote: Bob. it only proves he had an interest in THAT card trick. You will need much more to convince people he had an interest in magic as a whole.
Yeah, but they're correlated. If you're interested in a particular trick (enough to write it down) then you're much more likely to be interested in magic as a whole than a random person. As I said, it's not a black and white (proof) issue; instead the fact that he has shown interest in one trick boosts the likelihood that he's interested in others. Also, given that his diaries mention seeing a magic performance and figuring out the tricks, we have additional evidence in his interest in magic. Again, none of this is proof on its own, but it all adds to the weight of the evidence.
Postby lybrary » August 2nd, 2015, 6:29 pm
JHostler wrote: Digressing for just a moment…
I totally agree. Erdnase is way more sophisticated, intelligent and eclectic to simply reverse his name if it was E.S. Andrews. That is the biggest strike against an E.S. Andrews.
I have embarked on a little research project for which I would love to find colleagues to collaborate with. In 1890 C. C. Bombaugh wrote "Gleanings for the curious from the Harvest-Fields of Literature". This is available online or as a cheap Dover paperback edited by Martin Gardner. This is a book about puns, word plays, palindromes, and other such things. A book Erdnase may have very well known and read. The idea is to read it and then see if there are other word plays than anagrams or simple reversals, which may apply to one or another candidate to result in Erdnase. Anybody who wants to join me in exploring this please email me, or we may start a separate thread just for it.
Bill Mullins
Postby Bill Mullins » August 2nd, 2015, 6:37 pm
When Chris Wasshuber first proposed Edward Gallaway as Erdnase, he said, "He sounds just like Erdnase." Roger M. said "the similarity of introductions is very compelling." How something sounds to a reader is very subjective - Whaley/Busby said that MFA sounded like Erdnase, but I don't see it.
There are some elements of a written work that can be objectively measured, however, and computational linguists use stylometry to attribute works to authors by counting the relative frequency of words and phrases within works. These techniques are particularly applied to common functional words, rather than specific technical terms that may be directly related to the subject of a book or essay.
Below are some comparisons of the relative use of several functional "building block" words and phrases that could be expected to be similarly used in works of different subjects, like card table expertise vs. print job estimating. The counts are from digital copies of the books, and are subject to the vagaries of OCR. But the scans seem to be pretty accurate, and even if specific counts may not be 100% accurate, the trends noted should be.
Erdnase never addresses his reader directly. The word "You" only appears in patter instructions when the performer is giving the spectator instructions in the Card Tricks section, and not anywhere in the text where he is addressing the reader. Gallaway does use "You" to refer to the reader, several times (the list below is far from exhaustive):
p. 3 "it is important that you read every word"
"The book tells you nothing"
"It . . . gives you the cost of the job"
"you can never hope to be a good estimator until you have mastered"
p. 5 "If you are not sufficiently interested"
p. 34 "unless you have the patience and perservenance"
On the other hand, Erdnase often refers in the third person to "the reader". (See pp 12, 16, 20 (twice), 25, 30, 29, 70, 77, 130, 141, 157.) Gallaway doesn't use this formation much; I find it only once, on p 4 in the introduction.
Erdnase uses "your" only in quotation and in patter. Gallaway uses it often in giving direction.
Erdnase uses the idiom "but for" to mean "only for":
p. 110 "the only hold out that we consider really safe is made by the dealer, and but for the moment of cutting."
p. 111 "and the palmed cards remain in the dealer's possession but for the moment."
Gallaway uses only the more common "only for":
p. 117 "Proposals are only for work according to the original specifications."
Erdnase uses three different ways to express "that is to say" or "namely": "that is" (pp. 9, 11, 19, 29, 26, 70 (2), 71, 90, 113, 119), "i.e.," (pp. 29, 33, 55, 76, 110, 116, 178, 179, 182, 204), and "viz." (pp. 9, 30, 179, 184). Gallaway, otoh, uses them thusly: "that is" (pp. 6(2), 7, 9, 11, 19, 23, 24 ), "i.e.," (pp. 44), and "viz." (11, 36, 53, 59). So, relatively speaking, Gallaway dislikes "i.e.," compared to Erdnase.
There is an idiosyncratic sentence structure used by Erdnase that has stuck out to me as a reader ever since I first encountered the book:
[Erdnase] [transitive verb] "no" [object].
p. 3 "writer uses no sophistry"
p. 14 "We betray no confidences"
p. 14 "We . . . censure no one"
A more regular construction might have been "writer does not use any sophistry", "We do not betray any confidences", and "We . . . do not censure any one."
I don't see any sentences similarly constructed in the Gallaway book.
Erdnase refers to himself as "the writer" more often than he calls himself "the author" (2 times vs once), while Gallaway calls himself "the author" three times, but never "the writer."
There are some similarities in usage. Both authors refer to themselves in the editorial "we". Neither seems to be a big fan of contractions. Except for quotations and patter, Erdnase only uses two (p. 79 "Lightning don't strike" and p. 116 "We don't think many"). I don't see any (so far) in Gallaway's book. Both writers use the Oxford Comma.
Pete McCabe
Location: Simi Valley, CA
Postby Pete McCabe » August 2nd, 2015, 7:01 pm
I recall reading that a census survey showed no one named Erdnase was living in the US during the period in question. Has anyone looked at other countries? Could Erdnase have been an old-country name, changed upon arrival, or a friend or relative?
Unrelated second question: Do we know where Sanders might have seen the Mutus Nomen trick under that name? How many places was it in print at the time?
Roger M.
Postby Roger M. » August 2nd, 2015, 7:24 pm
lybrary wrote: Erdnase is way more sophisticated, intelligent and eclectic to simply reverse his name if it was E.S. Andrews. That is the biggest strike against an E.S. Andrews.
The problem with this line of argument is that it presumes that Erdnase wanted to completely disappear for all time, something that we have absolutely no evidence he actually wanted to do.
There is every possibility that Erdnase simply wanted a bit of "anonymity for convenience".
Perhaps it was to protect him from the Comstock Laws, or perhaps he simply wanted the authors name written on the cover such that he could say "nope, it's not me" to anybody who asked.
Even though the complete disappearance from view is his current status, nothing indicates that such an outcome was his intent or even his actual desire.
It may be a bit to casual to say Erdnase reversed "Andrews", or perhaps jumbled up "Sanders" on something as flippant as a whim ... but I've never thought his intent was anything so drastic as to vanish completely for all time, if indeed it was his intent to vanish at all.
Roger M. wrote:
There is every possibility, and indeed more than a few folks simply think that Erdnase wanted some "anonymity for convenience".
The problem with that line of argument is that it's just as easy (and much more fail-safe) to completely fabricate a name than to tinker with the arrangement of letters. A person seeking any degree of legitimate anonymity simply wouldn't risk it. Forget Andrews... we could just as easily be looking for Bat Masterson who, incidentally, was 1) a rabid gambler, 2) familiar with Faro, 3) a professional writer, 4) image-sensitive, and 5) accepted a new professional gig in 1902. If Masterson simply had a different name he might be on the short list of popular candidates...
Last edited by JHostler on August 2nd, 2015, 7:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Leonard Hevia
Favorite Magician: Dai Vernon, Frank Garcia, Slydini, Houdini,
Location: Gaithersburg, Md.
Postby Leonard Hevia » August 2nd, 2015, 7:45 pm
Pete McCabe wrote: Unrelated second question: Do we know where Sanders might have seen the Mutus Nomen trick under that name? How many places was it in print at the time?
It's in Chapter 3 of Hoffmann's Modern Magic titled "The Pairs Re-paired."
Pete. card tricks seem to be a viral phenomenon. They get shown and passed around.
Leonard Hevia wrote:
Marty points out (in his Montana's Conjurers, Con Men, and Card Cheats article) that Sanders lists the order as "Mutis Nomen Dedit Cocis" rather than "Mutis Dedit Nomen Cocis"...which is how Modern Magic orders it. He also mentions that two books of the era (The Secret Out and Amateur Amusements) contain both the Mutus Nomen ordering and the star puzzle (which is on the same Sanders notebook page).
Pete McCabe wrote: I recall reading that a census survey showed no one named Erdnase was living in the US during the period in question. Has anyone looked at other countries? Could Erdnase have been an old-country name, changed upon arrival, or a friend or relative?
I've checked foreign genealogical databases and foreign newspaper archives. Not as exahaustively as I have American ones (they don't exist in the same depth, and I don't have access to as many), but I've never found any evidence of a real person with that name.
Postby Tom Sawyer » August 2nd, 2015, 8:47 pm
Re "Mutus Nomen," I don't place a lot of importance on the sequence that Sanders arrived at, since it appears that he kind of pieced the thing back together. So I think it is only marginally more likely that he learned it from a source that had the sequence he arrived showed. Also, as Brad indicates, he could have picked it up from a friend.
Richard Kaufman
Favorite Magician: Theodore DeLand
Contact Richard Kaufman
Postby Richard Kaufman » August 2nd, 2015, 9:07 pm
If Bill Mullins can't find a person with the name "Erdnase," then no one has ever had that real last name!
Subscribe today to Genii Magazine
Postby 20514 » August 2nd, 2015, 10:09 pm
Guest wrote: Hello everyone,
Some time ago I began to study The Annotated Erdnase which I found quite fascinating. However, I soon delayed my study of Erdnase and began reading the Card College volumes.
Now I'm ready to resume my study of "The Expert". My question is how does one properly study Erdnase? Should I start with the Legerdemain section or Card Table Artifice?
Are there certain moves that are best studied from other sources? Are there sleights that are too inferior? Any help would be greatly appreciated!
I think you made a wise decision by reading through Card College before studying Erdnase.
I personally had to study both Royal Road and Card College before having even the vaguest understanding of what the author in Expert at the Card table was trying to convey in terms of technique.
Somewhere near the epilogue of the book, the author mentions his intent to somewhat flummox his readers in order to weed-out those whom are not as committed to learning the closely guarded artifice's during his time (early 1900's), which in itself can become frustrating, as the reader is left solely to his own personal interpretation as to how to un-puzzle Erdnase's work.
As far as moves that are better off being learned from other sources is concerned, I strongly believe the somewhat unorthodox, Erdnase grip for the bottom deal would not pass under fast company.
But as far as demonstrating the base deal for laymen is concerned with the Erdnase grip, it should pass with flying colors.
Postby Richard Kaufman » August 2nd, 2015, 11:46 pm
Gene Maze used the Erdnase Grip exclusively for all his Bottom Deal work. I saw him perform for lay people many times and no one even noticed the position of his second finger. How (not) surprising.
Card players would likely find it unusual, however.
Favorite Magician: Al Koran
Location: Derbyshire, England
Postby Zenner » August 3rd, 2015, 6:58 am
Bill Mullins wrote: Now, I see you mean that Thompson actually used the Andrews identity in his business dealings with McKinney, and it wasn't just a source for his pseudonym. I'm glad you are making that clear.
I have tried to make everything as clear as I can. It is you who are deliberately obfuscating the issue in your attempts to discredit Harry S. Thompson as a candidate.
This means that McKinney would see him in his Thompson persona when they were buying ink from Ruxton, and in his Andrews persona when arranging to print his book, and didn't notice the similarity.
Somebody at McKinney's obviously knew that E.C. Andrews was Harry Thompson. The business arrangements with Ruxton and Andrews were obviously being kept seperate. It would have been too easy for me if Frank Thompson had shown up in the files, but he didn't. All I have to do now is to find out who it was, if possible.
For all I know, it could have been Ed Gallaway!
Someone mentioned that the Introduction to the Gallaway book used different language to that of the rest of the book. What if Ed got someone else to write his Introduction for him? That often happens. Maybe "Erdnase", whoever he was, wrote that Introduction?
More investigations. I think that I will start with the fact that both Ed and Harry were freemasons.
Peter Zenner
Postby Bill Mullins » August 3rd, 2015, 10:39 am
Zenner wrote: I have tried to make everything as clear as I can. It is you who are deliberately obfuscating the issue in your attempts to discredit Harry S. Thompson as a candidate.
I don't believe Thompson was Erdnase. But I am not trying to obfuscate anything.
I am not a Freemason, and know nothing of Masonic lore. Is there anything in Expert that supports the idea that the author was a Mason (or a member of any other fraternal/religious organization)?
Jonathan Townsend
Location: Westchester, NY
Contact Jonathan Townsend
Postby Jonathan Townsend » August 3rd, 2015, 11:44 am
Zenner wrote:
Bill Mullins wrote: ... with the fact that both Ed and Harry were freemasons.
Where is this fact established?
Mundus vult decipi -per Caleb Carr's story Killing Time
Location: Providence, Utah
Contact Richard Hatch
Postby Richard Hatch » August 3rd, 2015, 11:55 am
Bill Mullins wrote: Is there anything in Expert that supports the idea that the author was a Mason (or a member of any other fraternal/religious organization)?
My understanding is that Masons are prohibited from gambling as "immoral behavior". Of course, that could be used to argue either that the author was not a Mason or that it gave him an additional reason to hide his true identity.
For what it's worth, James McKinney was also a Freemason, a member of Humboldt Park Lodge no. 813.
http://www.hatchacademy.com/
Postby Tom Sawyer » August 3rd, 2015, 11:04 pm
I notice that Ike Morgan is mentioned in the bankruptcy file, on page 572 of the lybrary version. I would think this was probably the same Ike Morgan who illustrated Jack Pots (Chicago, 1900), by Eugene Edwards (which is viewable on the Hathi Trust Digital Library website). Ike was a highly skilled and fairly prominent artist. He was published widely.
Postby Bill Mullins » August 4th, 2015, 12:42 am
Morganillustrated a number of books that were published by Jamieson Higgins, a company that is in some way tied up with McKinney (McKinney was an investor in J-H, according to a Publisher's Weekly article mentioned upthread). He was also a cartoonist. Here is a bookplate he designed.
Offline, Richard Hatch has pointed out that Morgan, like Dalrymple, was an illustrator for newspapers in Chicago and NY.
Postby Zenner » August 4th, 2015, 5:59 am
Richard Hatch wrote:
I have no idea whether or not Masons are prohibited from gambling, but, as I hope that you have realised by now, I don't believe that 'Erdnase' was a gambler. He was a magician who had studied books which explained the methods of card cheats and come up with some of his own FOR USE IN CARD TRICKS.
The "reformed gambler", "ex-card cheat" persona was a ruse to sell a book. Why was the book sold under the title The Expert at the Card Table, rather than Artiface Ruse and Subterfuge at the Card Table? Because it sounded less technical and more likely to appeal to those people who thought they might benefit financially by purchasing the book?
Harry "attained the degree of Sublime Prince of the Royal Secret, 32°" in Scottish Rite Masonry, as did Dr. A.M. Wilson.
Richard Kaufman wrote: If Bill Mullins can't find a person with the name "Erdnase," then no one has ever had that real last name!
Remember that business in the June 1908 issue of The Caledonian? On page 115, there was an account of a banquet of the Canadian Club of New York, held at the Hotel Astor on May 14. Among the attendees (p. 117) was S. W. Erdnose.
A search on the Internet revealed a dog show - Croatia, Varazdin Int. 24.05.2009. The Judge was Szuzanna Balog Erdnose. S. B. Erdnose?
Perhaps 'Erdnase' was a misprint for 'Erdnose' and the author was Croatian?
Just another stir to keep the pot boiling
Postby lybrary » August 4th, 2015, 8:04 am
Some anagramatical musings involving Edward Gallaway:
If you ask me S.W. Erdnase has a lot of Edward in it. To be more precise, S.W. Erdnase has the word Edward in it if we allow the d to be used twice. What remains is 'ness'. Meaning Edward-ness (as in highness). The French might pronounce it as Edwarness, leaving out the trailing d of Edward.
On the title page we find the lines:
WITH OVER ONE HUNDRED
DRAWINGS FROM LIFE
Taking the last ED from hundred and the first DRAW from drawings, reversing the DRAW to WARD and combining it with ED gives us EDWARD. There is also the name Gallaway on the title page, but not as nice and neatly as Edward.
Postby Brad Henderson » August 4th, 2015, 9:08 am
there is far too much information about the approach to cheating at the table that a magician simply would not know. The approach for performing and the approach for cheating are diametrically opposed, and if you look at most magicians who claim to be cheats you can see just by their demeanor that they have no idea what they are talking about - from experience.
magicians show off. cheaters hide.
the text of Erdnase has too much wisdom on how to hide to have been written by someone who was primarily a magician.
where are Thompson's other published tricks? there is no good reason for thompson to not have published in other places, like with his buddies at the Sphinx, if he wanted to share, which if we wrote a book he clearly did.
let's compare those tricks to those in erdnase. where and what are they?
Postby Richard Hatch » August 4th, 2015, 11:13 am
Regarding Ed Gallaway: Since he had and kept a copy of Erdnase in his library, isn't it possible that the similarities between his 1927 book and The Expert are a result of his having read and been influenced by Erdnase, rather than his being Erdnase? Certainly Erdnase has influenced other readers, why not Gallaway?
Postby Bill Mullins » August 4th, 2015, 12:34 pm
Zenner wrote: Remember that business in the June 1908 issue of The Caledonian?
Probably not a misprint, since it shows up as handwritten on the copyright application.
But congratulations on finding another instance of the name being used.
I don't believe that 'Erdnase' was a gambler. He was a magician who had studied books which explained the methods of card cheats
I know that some of the moves (palms, false deals, shifts, etc.) in Expert were mentioned in previous books. But "explained"? I don't think so. I can't think of _any_ examples of cheating sleights and moves described in Expert having been previously explained to that level of detail.
and come up with some of his own FOR USE IN CARD TRICKS.
What magic tricks would you use the Erdnase System of Cull Shuffling in? Or the Erdnase system of Stock Shuffling? Were these tricks commonly performed before 1902? (or after, for that matter?)
These moves are used by magicians if they want to show how a gambler cheats -- but was that a mode of performance back then?
I doubt he wanted to use the Erdnase Shift One Hand (p 99) in Card Tricks. It is impractical, and the only tricks I know of in which it is used were designed specifically to accommodate this sleight (or to show off to other magicians the mastery of the sleight by the creator).
Edward Finck
Postby Edward Finck » August 4th, 2015, 2:07 pm
Zenner wrote: Why was the book sold under the title The Expert at the Card Table, rather than Artiface Ruse and Subterfuge at the Card Table? Because it sounded less technical and more likely to appeal to those people who thought they might benefit financially by purchasing the book?
Actually that is incorrect. Any librarian in the world will tell you the title of the book comes from the title page by definition. Not the cover or binding. The book was properly copyrighted as Atifice Ruse and Subterfuge, it's actual title. It was Drake who changed the name, perhaps by error when advertising the book a few years later as The Expert At the Card Table. This name stuck but is not the proper name of the book. There is no evidence whatsoever that Erdnase sold the book under the later assumed title.
Reasonable people can disagree as to the level of Erdnase's skill as a professional advantage player but very few (or none) who have thoroughly read and studied the book would draw the conclusion that he was just a card magician. There is far too much detail that is not relevant to card magic.
As an aside, do you have any evidence of Thompson playing faro? Erdnase was clearly a faro player so if you can demonstrate that Thompson was too it could strengthen your case.
Postby Tom Sawyer » August 4th, 2015, 2:32 pm
The famous "first advertisement" (1902) calls it The Expert at the Card Table. So does the second advertisement. (Those advertisements are discussed in The Man Who Was Erdnase.)
Postby lybrary » August 4th, 2015, 5:16 pm
Richard Hatch wrote: Regarding Ed Gallaway: Since he had and kept a copy of Erdnase in his library, isn't it possible that the similarities between his 1927 book and The Expert are a result of his having read and been influenced by Erdnase, rather than his being Erdnase? Certainly Erdnase has influenced other readers, why not Gallaway?
Richard, I think it is highly unlikely for somebody like Gallaway, who must have been involved with the production of hundreds if not thousands of books, that he decided to copy EATCT. EATCT is certainly groundbreaking in its contents. But I don't think it has pioneered any publishing norms to make it worth copying.
Joined: June 1st, 2014, 7:47 am
Postby mam » August 4th, 2015, 5:24 pm
Bill Mullins wrote: On the other hand, Erdnase often refers in the third person to "the reader". (See pp 12, 16, 20 (twice), 25, 30, 29, 70, 77, 130, 141, 157.) Gallaway doesn't use this formation much; I find it only once, on p 4 in the introduction.
It is used however quite a bit more in How to price job printing properly:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/307 ... ice-03.jpg
e.g. "the printer", "the idealist", "the compiler" (referring to himself)
As well as in Problems in estimating:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/307 ... ing-01.jpg
e.g. "the student"
This is my announced quantitative analysis. It is my first attempt putting some numbers behind some of the evidence that gets mentioned in lists. It is my first stab and I welcome critique, comments, and suggestions to make it better. I think it is very important for us to quantify evidence otherwise we will have a much harder time to move this discussion forward. Before you get hung up on specific numbers, I am mostly interested in orders of magnitudes. (Some of the arguments you will remember from my earlier posts, but they are refined and put into a bigger context here.)
EDWARD GALLAWAY
I will develop two cases for Gallaway. One which I feel is likely and one a worst case scenario. We know Erdnase ordered the printing of his book at McKinney in 1901. Based on the bankruptcy files which reveals the size of McKinney's business my estimate is that McKinney had business contact with no more than 300 people during 1901. I think it is likely to assume Erdnase did directly deal with McKinney. But for the worst case we assume that Erdnase used a front-man. That means we square 300 to get 90k (90,000). This means we assume that everyone of those 300 business contacts had 300 other business contacts which could be Erdnase. We also have 32 employees which we have to keep separate, because they are a special group of people for which different circumstances apply. So we have 300+32 for the likely scenario and 90k+32 for the worst case.
We can also safely assume Erdnase had a first edition of EATCT. (Yes there is the possibility that Erdnase got disgusted with his writing and banished the book from his library, but this is an estimate where outlandish possibilities do not matter.) I assume that there were no more than 10,000 first editions printed. I think this is a safe assumption. Most likely only 2000-3000 were printed because we know Drake started to reprint pretty soon after EATCT appears. In 1902 there were 80 million people in the US. Limiting to males we get 40 million and further limiting to adult males we get 20 million. From this I get 10k/20M = 1/2000. On average there is one copy of EATCT for every 2000 male adults. I do not specify when somebody acquired the book. In reality the number of people in the denominator above is much higher because we are not looking at one year only but at a couple of decades which means there are many more people who could have acquired a first edition. But again, for my argument I will leave it at 1/2000 to be on the safe side.
We can now combine these two numbers. For the likely case we expect 300/2000 = 0.15 people to have a first edition of EATCT. For the worst case we have 90000/2000 = 45 people to have a first edition of EATCT. Employees we have to treat differently, because they are more likely to have a copy, because they might have been involved with its production, or they may have seen it at their workplace and picked up a copy. For the likely case assuming about 10% of employees to have a copy is a pretty sound assumption. This would give us 3 people and thus in total 3.15 people for the likely case. In the worst case I will assume that everybody of the 32 employees received a copy. Unlikely but it is the worst case. This gives us for the worst case 45+32=77 people.
So at this point we expect 3.15 people, which I round to 3 people, for the likely case and 77 people for the worst case to meet the requirements for Erdnase assuming evidence that applies to Gallaway.
We also know that M.D. Smith remembered Erdnase's real name had a 'W' somewhere. I analyzed surnames in 1901 and there are less than 10% of surnames with a 'W' somewhere. I will therefore use 10%. This reduces our numbers for the likely case to 0.3 people and the worst case to 7.7 people.
What do these numbers mean? These numbers are the numbers of people we expect to meet the same things we know about Gallaway. In the likely case with 0.3 people it means that once we have found one such person (Edward Gallaway) it is quite unlikely to find a second such person. In other words, we can be reasonably sure we have found Erdnase.
E. S. ANDREWS
I will now attempt a similar analysis for E.S. Andrews. I must say I am not a specialist on this candidate. Others can fill in my gaps and develop this further, but it serves as comparison.
We know E.S. Andrews is in Chicago at the right time. He has not been linked to McKinney, but we know he is in town. In 1901 there were 2 million people in Chicago/Cook County according to the US census. Reducing this to male gives 1 million and reducing to adult male gives us 500,000 people. We also know he played cards. I have no good number for a ratio of card players to non card players but I will assume a 1/5 ratio. So out of 5 people I assume 1 is a card player. This reduces the numbers for E.S. Andrews to 100,000. Andrews also has a 'W' in his name which means we can reduce the number by a factor 10 and we get 10,000. That is as low as I can get the number for E.S. Andrews.
Now compare 10,000 people who we expect to match the E.S. Andrews profile and 0.3 people (or 7.7 people in the worst case) who we expect to match the Edward Gallaway profile. Both profiles match Erdnase. There are 3-4 orders of magnitude difference. That is significant. It means Gallaway is much more likely Erdnase than any other candidate, because the numbers are even higher for other favorite candidates. This is part of the reason why I am so convinced about Gallaway. This analysis does not even include the similarity in literary voice or any other points that fit the picture.
[One other comment which I wanted to make for a long time. A lot of evidence that gets mentioned here is non-evidence. For example, it is pretty obvious that everybody 'needs the money'. Any candidate can be shown to need the money. And if we should ever find any candidate who is obviously filthy rich then clearly it was a sarcastic comment. Since any candidate can somehow be shown to need the money it is no evidence whatsoever. Same with reasons to stay anonymous. Anybody writing a book like EATCT has enough reason to stay anonymous. And therefore again not evidence at all if you have some 'good' reason why a candidate needed to stay anonymous. Once you throw out all this non-evidence and quantify what is left a much clearer picture emerges.]
Postby Richard Hatch » August 4th, 2015, 9:10 pm
I conducted a similar "analysis" for Edwin S. Andrews (the train agent) a few years ago and pretty much convinced myself that he was the author, but I was handicapped by the assumption that the author's name was likely "E. S. Andrews" (a popular assumption until recently!). I used census statistics to estimate how many people in the US had the last name Andrews, how many males had names begining with E, how many had middle initials S and how many of those were likely to be in Chicago at the time. Making what I thought were reasonable assumptions, I came up with the number one or less (I probably posted that reasoning in this forum years ago...). Case closed! Of course, if we throw out the idea that the author was named "E. S. Andrews", then such an analysis becomes pretty worthless!
If I understand your statistics, Chris, the estimated chances for an adult male in the USA in 1902 owning a copy of EATCT are no greater than 1/2000 (and probably much smaller). It follows (I think) that the odds of an adult male in the USA in 1902 owning 2 copies are (1/2000)x(1/2000)=1/4,000,000. If we apply those odds to the population of Cook County (2 million) we get an expectation of only half a person in Chicago in 1902 owning 2 copies of the book. Ed Vernello owned at least 2 copies in 1902, since he took the trouble to advertise it in the The Sphinx in November 1902, unlikely to be something he would have done had he only had one copy. In fact, he likely a dozen or more copies, to justify his effort in advertising it. What are the odds of that? Do I think Vernello was the author? No. A person of interest, who may have known the author? Sure!
Here's an even more statistically unlikely individual: He was in Chicago, knew about copyright law, possessed multiple first edition copies, as well as copies of Roterberg's book (which we know the author had studied) and Selbit's Magician's Handbook (which had the color change attributed to Houdini that was also in Erdnase) and he had very direct dealings with McKinney, as detailed in the bankruptcy papers. Statistically, he has to be the author, right? Personally, I don't think so (though I bet he knew who was), but statistically speaking, Frederick J. Drake has to be the guy by this line of reasoning!
Incidentally, Drake advertised Selbit's book on the back cover of the very first issue of the Sphinx, which had his full page ad, as did the next two issues (after that he went to a quarter page ad). Drake also advertised (elsewhere) Cobb's Jack Henderson Down East which was illustrated by Marshall D. Smith. What are the odds of that?
While I find such statistical analyses interesting, I do not find them convincing.
magicam
Postby magicam » August 4th, 2015, 9:10 pm
Okay, Chris, I'll be the first to admit my ignorance: I find the methodology and analysis incomprehensible.


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text:
Q: Calculating the limit of a function of itself I need to show that the limit of $f(x)=xe^{-2f(x)}$ at infinity is equal to $+\infty$.
From the previous questions, I know that :

*

*$f$ is $C^1$ and strictly increasing on $[0,+\infty[$ and $f'(0)=1$

*$f(x) \geq 0$

*$f(x) \leq x$
I have no idea how to proceed, but I tried using the formal definition and got a result I'm quite sure is wrong and that I shouldn't be using this :

Feels circular or I don't know ..
Your help is appreciated!

A: Let's put $y=f(x) $ so that $x=ye^{2y}$ and thus $x, y$ are of same sign. Since we are considering $x\geq 0$ it follows that $y\geq 0$ and clearly $x$ is a strictly increasing continuous function of $y$. Moreover $x\to\infty $ as $y\to\infty$. And hence by inverse function theorem $y=f(x) $ is a stricting increasing continuous function of $x$ and tends to $\infty $ as $x\to\infty $. There is no need to use derivatives here.