text:
Operative Approaches for Lumbar Disc Herniation: A Systematic Review and Multiple Treatment Meta-Analysis of Conventional and Minimally Invasive Surgeries
Mohammed Ali Alvi, Panagiotis Kerezoudis, Waseem Wahood, Anshit Goyal, Mohamad Bydon
Background: Minimally invasive surgery (MIS) techniques have emerged as viable and safe alternatives for lumbar disc herniation, including percutaneous discectomy, percutaneous endoscopic discectomy, and tubulardiscectomy (TD). We present here a systematic review and a multiple-treatment meta-analysis evaluating the operative outcomes and patient-reported outcomes of open/microdiscectomy (OD/MD) and all MIS approaches for lumbar disc herniation. Methods: The PICO approach and PRISMA (i.e., Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines were followed to query existing online databases since their inception to 2016, which yielded 14 studies after we applied the inclusion/exclusion criteria. The Cochrane Collaboration's tool for assessing risk of bias in randomized trials was used to assess the risk of bias in each study was used to assess the risk of bias in each study. Each outcome was assessed across all studies with the GRADE (i.e., Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations) criteria. Results: There were 1707 patients analyzed, with 782 (45.81%) undergoing OD/MD, 491 (28.76%) undergoing TD, 199 (11.65%) undergoing percutaneous endoscopic discectomy, and 235 (13.76%) patients undergoing percutaneous discectomy. TD was found to be associated with significantly worse Oswestry Disability Index scores (mean difference 1.17, P = 0.03) whereas OD/MD was associated with worse Oswestry Disability Index scores compared with all other approaches (mean difference 2.61, P = 0.03), significantly longer duration of stay (mean difference 2.96, P = 0.04), and more blood loss (mean difference 30.53, P < 0.001). In terms of complications, TD was found to be associated with a greater rate of overall complications (odds ratio [OR] 1.49, P = 0.002), greater incidence of dural tears (OR 1.72 P = 0.04), and recurrent herniation (OR 2.09, P = 0.0007). Finally, OD/MD was associated with significantly lower incidence of revision surgery (OR 0.53, P = 0.0007). Conclusions: Our meta-analysis revealed that tubular-discectomy and percutaneous-endoscopic-discectomy, the most commonly employed MIS techniques for discectomy, can be used as safe alternatives for open discectomy depending on the preference of the operating surgeon.
391-407.e2
World neurosurgery
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wneu.2018.02.156
Patient-reported outcomes
Surgical outcomes
10.1016/j.wneu.2018.02.156
Dive into the research topics of 'Operative Approaches for Lumbar Disc Herniation: A Systematic Review and Multiple Treatment Meta-Analysis of Conventional and Minimally Invasive Surgeries'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.
Percutaneous Diskectomy Medicine & Life Sciences 100%
Minimally Invasive Surgical Procedures Medicine & Life Sciences 68%
Meta-Analysis Medicine & Life Sciences 45%
Diskectomy Medicine & Life Sciences 45%
Patient Reported Outcome Measures Medicine & Life Sciences 13%
Incidence Medicine & Life Sciences 11%
Alvi, M. A., Kerezoudis, P., Wahood, W., Goyal, A., & Bydon, M. (2018). Operative Approaches for Lumbar Disc Herniation: A Systematic Review and Multiple Treatment Meta-Analysis of Conventional and Minimally Invasive Surgeries. World neurosurgery, 114, 391-407.e2. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wneu.2018.02.156
Operative Approaches for Lumbar Disc Herniation : A Systematic Review and Multiple Treatment Meta-Analysis of Conventional and Minimally Invasive Surgeries. / Alvi, Mohammed Ali; Kerezoudis, Panagiotis; Wahood, Waseem et al.
In: World neurosurgery, Vol. 114, 06.2018, p. 391-407.e2.
Alvi, MA, Kerezoudis, P, Wahood, W, Goyal, A & Bydon, M 2018, 'Operative Approaches for Lumbar Disc Herniation: A Systematic Review and Multiple Treatment Meta-Analysis of Conventional and Minimally Invasive Surgeries', World neurosurgery, vol. 114, pp. 391-407.e2. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wneu.2018.02.156
Alvi MA, Kerezoudis P, Wahood W, Goyal A, Bydon M. Operative Approaches for Lumbar Disc Herniation: A Systematic Review and Multiple Treatment Meta-Analysis of Conventional and Minimally Invasive Surgeries. World neurosurgery. 2018 Jun;114:391-407.e2. doi: 10.1016/j.wneu.2018.02.156
Alvi, Mohammed Ali ; Kerezoudis, Panagiotis ; Wahood, Waseem et al. / Operative Approaches for Lumbar Disc Herniation : A Systematic Review and Multiple Treatment Meta-Analysis of Conventional and Minimally Invasive Surgeries. In: World neurosurgery. 2018 ; Vol. 114. pp. 391-407.e2.
@article{ab3c2ff66cee48fe87e76c3144f3bbdb,
title = "Operative Approaches for Lumbar Disc Herniation: A Systematic Review and Multiple Treatment Meta-Analysis of Conventional and Minimally Invasive Surgeries",
abstract = "Background: Minimally invasive surgery (MIS) techniques have emerged as viable and safe alternatives for lumbar disc herniation, including percutaneous discectomy, percutaneous endoscopic discectomy, and tubulardiscectomy (TD). We present here a systematic review and a multiple-treatment meta-analysis evaluating the operative outcomes and patient-reported outcomes of open/microdiscectomy (OD/MD) and all MIS approaches for lumbar disc herniation. Methods: The PICO approach and PRISMA (i.e., Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines were followed to query existing online databases since their inception to 2016, which yielded 14 studies after we applied the inclusion/exclusion criteria. The Cochrane Collaboration's tool for assessing risk of bias in randomized trials was used to assess the risk of bias in each study was used to assess the risk of bias in each study. Each outcome was assessed across all studies with the GRADE (i.e., Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations) criteria. Results: There were 1707 patients analyzed, with 782 (45.81%) undergoing OD/MD, 491 (28.76%) undergoing TD, 199 (11.65%) undergoing percutaneous endoscopic discectomy, and 235 (13.76%) patients undergoing percutaneous discectomy. TD was found to be associated with significantly worse Oswestry Disability Index scores (mean difference 1.17, P = 0.03) whereas OD/MD was associated with worse Oswestry Disability Index scores compared with all other approaches (mean difference 2.61, P = 0.03), significantly longer duration of stay (mean difference 2.96, P = 0.04), and more blood loss (mean difference 30.53, P < 0.001). In terms of complications, TD was found to be associated with a greater rate of overall complications (odds ratio [OR] 1.49, P = 0.002), greater incidence of dural tears (OR 1.72 P = 0.04), and recurrent herniation (OR 2.09, P = 0.0007). Finally, OD/MD was associated with significantly lower incidence of revision surgery (OR 0.53, P = 0.0007). Conclusions: Our meta-analysis revealed that tubular-discectomy and percutaneous-endoscopic-discectomy, the most commonly employed MIS techniques for discectomy, can be used as safe alternatives for open discectomy depending on the preference of the operating surgeon.",
keywords = "Disc herniation, Discectomy, Minimally invasive surgery, Open surgery, Patient-reported outcomes, Spine surgery, Surgical outcomes",
author = "Alvi, {Mohammed Ali} and Panagiotis Kerezoudis and Waseem Wahood and Anshit Goyal and Mohamad Bydon",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2018 Elsevier Inc.",
doi = "10.1016/j.wneu.2018.02.156",
pages = "391--407.e2",
journal = "World Neurosurgery",
T1 - Operative Approaches for Lumbar Disc Herniation
T2 - A Systematic Review and Multiple Treatment Meta-Analysis of Conventional and Minimally Invasive Surgeries
AU - Alvi, Mohammed Ali
AU - Kerezoudis, Panagiotis
AU - Wahood, Waseem
AU - Goyal, Anshit
AU - Bydon, Mohamad
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2018 Elsevier Inc.
N2 - Background: Minimally invasive surgery (MIS) techniques have emerged as viable and safe alternatives for lumbar disc herniation, including percutaneous discectomy, percutaneous endoscopic discectomy, and tubulardiscectomy (TD). We present here a systematic review and a multiple-treatment meta-analysis evaluating the operative outcomes and patient-reported outcomes of open/microdiscectomy (OD/MD) and all MIS approaches for lumbar disc herniation. Methods: The PICO approach and PRISMA (i.e., Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines were followed to query existing online databases since their inception to 2016, which yielded 14 studies after we applied the inclusion/exclusion criteria. The Cochrane Collaboration's tool for assessing risk of bias in randomized trials was used to assess the risk of bias in each study was used to assess the risk of bias in each study. Each outcome was assessed across all studies with the GRADE (i.e., Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations) criteria. Results: There were 1707 patients analyzed, with 782 (45.81%) undergoing OD/MD, 491 (28.76%) undergoing TD, 199 (11.65%) undergoing percutaneous endoscopic discectomy, and 235 (13.76%) patients undergoing percutaneous discectomy. TD was found to be associated with significantly worse Oswestry Disability Index scores (mean difference 1.17, P = 0.03) whereas OD/MD was associated with worse Oswestry Disability Index scores compared with all other approaches (mean difference 2.61, P = 0.03), significantly longer duration of stay (mean difference 2.96, P = 0.04), and more blood loss (mean difference 30.53, P < 0.001). In terms of complications, TD was found to be associated with a greater rate of overall complications (odds ratio [OR] 1.49, P = 0.002), greater incidence of dural tears (OR 1.72 P = 0.04), and recurrent herniation (OR 2.09, P = 0.0007). Finally, OD/MD was associated with significantly lower incidence of revision surgery (OR 0.53, P = 0.0007). Conclusions: Our meta-analysis revealed that tubular-discectomy and percutaneous-endoscopic-discectomy, the most commonly employed MIS techniques for discectomy, can be used as safe alternatives for open discectomy depending on the preference of the operating surgeon.
AB - Background: Minimally invasive surgery (MIS) techniques have emerged as viable and safe alternatives for lumbar disc herniation, including percutaneous discectomy, percutaneous endoscopic discectomy, and tubulardiscectomy (TD). We present here a systematic review and a multiple-treatment meta-analysis evaluating the operative outcomes and patient-reported outcomes of open/microdiscectomy (OD/MD) and all MIS approaches for lumbar disc herniation. Methods: The PICO approach and PRISMA (i.e., Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines were followed to query existing online databases since their inception to 2016, which yielded 14 studies after we applied the inclusion/exclusion criteria. The Cochrane Collaboration's tool for assessing risk of bias in randomized trials was used to assess the risk of bias in each study was used to assess the risk of bias in each study. Each outcome was assessed across all studies with the GRADE (i.e., Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations) criteria. Results: There were 1707 patients analyzed, with 782 (45.81%) undergoing OD/MD, 491 (28.76%) undergoing TD, 199 (11.65%) undergoing percutaneous endoscopic discectomy, and 235 (13.76%) patients undergoing percutaneous discectomy. TD was found to be associated with significantly worse Oswestry Disability Index scores (mean difference 1.17, P = 0.03) whereas OD/MD was associated with worse Oswestry Disability Index scores compared with all other approaches (mean difference 2.61, P = 0.03), significantly longer duration of stay (mean difference 2.96, P = 0.04), and more blood loss (mean difference 30.53, P < 0.001). In terms of complications, TD was found to be associated with a greater rate of overall complications (odds ratio [OR] 1.49, P = 0.002), greater incidence of dural tears (OR 1.72 P = 0.04), and recurrent herniation (OR 2.09, P = 0.0007). Finally, OD/MD was associated with significantly lower incidence of revision surgery (OR 0.53, P = 0.0007). Conclusions: Our meta-analysis revealed that tubular-discectomy and percutaneous-endoscopic-discectomy, the most commonly employed MIS techniques for discectomy, can be used as safe alternatives for open discectomy depending on the preference of the operating surgeon.
KW - Disc herniation
KW - Discectomy
KW - Minimally invasive surgery
KW - Open surgery
KW - Patient-reported outcomes
KW - Spine surgery
KW - Surgical outcomes
U2 - 10.1016/j.wneu.2018.02.156
DO - 10.1016/j.wneu.2018.02.156
SP - 391-407.e2
JO - World Neurosurgery
JF - World Neurosurgery


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Tyler Cowen generously posted a comment I had made about supposed short-term bias in financial markets. My point was that there is an apparent contradiction between the idea that (1) short-sighted investors consistently push firms to massage quarterly numbers and invest for short-term profits over lasting long-term growth and (2) there was a speculative bubble 15 years ago based on a group of firms that had never been profitable and had no near term plans for being profitable.
The commenters on his post generally balked at the idea, noting that there can be investors who are short-sighted at the same time that there are investors who are overconfident speculators. This is well enough, as far as it goes. The distinctions here are subtle, non-falsifiable, and are about scale. Of course there are ebbs and flows in investor sentiment, and of course at any given time there are investors with many different sentiments. But, the problem is figuring out when these sentiments become such an influence on price that markets become adversely inefficient.
My reaction is that there appears to be a lot of motivated reasoning against finance. We are uncomfortable with conspicuous profit from risk. Speculation is unseemly. It seems like it must reflect our baser motives. So, to my eyes, there tends to be a pretty obvious predisposition for finding fault in financial markets. This is in stark contrast to the way we should feel. Speculation is what I do for a living, and, despite a fairly strong history of success, in my weaker moments I am almost embarrassed at myself for thinking that what I do is possible. There are millions of people in the world diligently (even greedily) searching for mispriced securities, including many highly trained, motivated, and intelligent people. The hubris required to bet against them is damning.
A complicating factor on this question is that securities with the longest time frame are the ones that are most vulnerable to small changes in expectations (discount rates, growth expectations, etc.), so, in a way, the popular notion of imagining speculative fevers in long term securities can be attributed to the seemingly contradictory complaint of short-termism. Markets in those long term securities can become volatile when those sensitive variables change, and cynical observers can attribute the changing prices to short term speculation. So, in the 2000s, when households were investing large sums into, perhaps, the longest-lived security of all - homes - a consensus explanation didn't build around the idea that forward-looking households were scrupulously investing their incomes in their homes, in a mass attempt to create a long-lasting financial safety net. Instead, the consensus reaction was that the housing market was dominated by short-term speculators with unhinged expectations.
In the end, public policy was, itself, affected by this consensus, and we created a classic, monstrous example of strong form IMH (Inefficient Market Hypothesis). Those unhinged speculators clearly pushed home prices beyond their reasonable levels, so when home prices eventually collapsed so far that the economy followed, we told ourselves that this was our medicine. It had to be done. To engage in any policy that might even indirectly support home prices would be driving them back to those inappropriate levels, and, furthermore, it would prevent those speculators from learning a lesson about greed and overconfidence.
It is strong form IMH because it looks exactly like that is what happened. It's not crazy to think that this story is accurate. There are certainly enough reasonable pieces of evidence to confirm it. So, the self-imposed public policies that popped the bubble prove themselves to be appropriate by creating a believable, yet inevitable, outcome. There is no way to steer a public that insists on viewing our financial selves as inherently unstable away from this self-imposed destruction.
But, what if those long-lived assets really aren't being driven by manic short term speculative fevers? What if households are investing for long-term income, and it really is a contradiction to imagine that we are both short term oriented and given to speculative fevers in long-term securities?
Here is a graph of real home yields compared to real equity and bond yields. (See this post for an earlier version of the graph and descriptions of the method.) The high inflation 70s mess up the trends, because required returns on equities shot up during that time and bond yields simply adjusted for inflation (using the GDP deflator here) are only a rough approximation of real yields based on a market rate. The bond yields in the early 1970's are probably understated because experienced inflation was coming in higher than expected inflation and bond yields in the 1980s are probably overstated for the opposite reason.
But, except for that issue, and allowing for some pretty noisy annual growth and inflation data, total real yields to equity (including real expected growth) run along a flat trend of just over 10% while bonds and homes run about 3% to 4%. If anything, bonds have the least stationary real yields of the three asset classes. (I used 10 year treasuries here.) Except for the treasury yields, all of the other yields are derived by comparing incomes and market values from the Federal Reserve Flow of Funds report and BEA tables. And, we can see that yields on homes (net rent after costs and depreciation, divided by market values) form a pretty straight and level line.
This goes to one of my themes about the housing boom. Equity valuations are notoriously flexible. Bond yields (and, thus, valuations) are similarly traded on highly liquid international platforms. Home prices are sticky. Rent levels, in the aggregate, change very slowly, and home prices can't generally rise more than about 10 to 15% per year, because of the illiquid housing market and various frictions in play. Those frictions can keep demand due to falling yields from pushing prices up quickly, but we did learn in 2007 and 2008 that they can't keep them from falling so quickly when demand collapses.
Here is a more close-up graph of real home yields over time. These have fallen within a range of about 1 1/2% since 1960. At the same rent level, a home with a yield of 2.4% would be worth about 67% more than a home with a yield of 4%. Simply based on cash yields, home yields were just below the historical range in 2006, at 2.4%.
There was a period of rent inflation in the 1970s, which subsided in the 1980s, and until about 1995, rent inflation was pretty normal. So, the 1990s saw both high long term real interest rates and low rent inflation, which combined to make home prices very low. From 1989 to 1993, home prices fell 14% in real terms, and stayed there until 1997.
From the end of 1997 to the home price peak in early 2006, home prices nationally rose about 110%. Rent rose 30%, which was 10% more than core CPI. So, about 1/3 of that rise was simply reflected in experienced cash flow increases. The required yield fell from 4.1% to 3.2%. That corresponds to an increase of just under 30% in price/rent. So, about 1/3 of the rise in home prices can be attributed to falling yields. And, persistent rent inflation pushed cash yields down from 3.2% to 2.4%. That corresponds to an increase of just over 30% in price/rent. So, about 1/3 of the rise in home prices can be attributed to persistent rent inflation.
Two-thirds of the rise in nominal home prices came, then, from rent. And, rent continues to rise now that we are past the recession. I think this demonstrates two ideas. First, we don't need a speculative frenzy to explain the 2000s housing market. The rising rents were done. They happened. The yields were falling in line with long term TIPS yields. And expectations of rent inflation were justified by past and subsequent developments. The rising prices in the 2000s housing market reflect reasonable, income-based long term investing.
Sure, there were speculators. They were profiting from the frictions that make home prices inflexible, leaving predictable profits when market prices converge with intrinsic value, not from home prices flying off away from their intrinsic value.
The second idea is that real yields are very low for low risk securities in developed economies - not only now, but generally. For homes, it looks like they tend to stay around 4% or so, which reflects a slight premium compared to TIPS bonds, but is still very low. And, this is why the housing market should be very efficient, because even a small increase in expected rent cash flows of 1% or less can cause intrinsic values in homes to rise more than 10%, even 20% or 30%. So, even though the actual buyer and sellers market for homes has high transaction costs, a lot of localized differentiation, and is anything but commoditized, over time we can easily see how there would be a supply response to a 10% to 30% rise in prices that was due to rising rents. And, there was a supply response where we allowed it.
But, this same arithmetic that shows how much we can expect a supply response also shows how extreme the consequences of supply constrictions can be. Just a 1% increase in excess rent inflation over a decade created a 40% increase in home prices. In the major metro areas where the constrictions are centered, prices rose 175% from 1997 to 2006. During that time, rent inflation in the major metro areas was nearly another percentage point higher than the nationwide figure. So, add another ~30% influence to home prices in the Case-Shiller 10 cities. Four factors each increasing the price by about 30% and compounding gives us a price increase in the range of 175%. In the major metro areas, all but about 30% of the rise in home prices can be attributed to rent inflation, mostly arising from these supply constrictions.
So, we have a supply side problem, but reasoning from a price change, together with motivated reasoning that leads us to assume base motives and irrationality from financial agents, leads us to exactly the wrong interpretation.
Financial markets may be the most forward looking institutions ever created. A small change in the trajectory of our expectations about the value of homes 40 years from now can lead to huge changes in the prices of those homes today. We have found a way to quantify the investments we make for the future and make them real, today. And, this success becomes its own enemy, by tricking us into mistaking our most forward-looking selves for wild-eyed fools and flagellating ourselves for it as if in some puritanical historical drama.
Brad DeLong has a post up that seems like it relates to this issue. He argues that "secular stagnation" reflects a monetary-financial problem. And, since the idea that high asset prices reflect speculative excess is so widely accepted, it becomes a placeholder for his argument. I don't accept that placeholder, and so his argument appears very strange to me. He blames low interest rates on the "failure of financial regulation" that "has left us with a set of financial intermediaries who are untrustworthy and untrusted. As a result, they cannot mobilize the risk-bearing capacity of society as a whole to any sufficient degree."
This is strange because (1) corporate assets that bear cyclical risks and higher risk premiums are trading at fairly normal prices. There doesn't seem to be anything unusual there. And (2) interest rates are low, in part, because there is a high demand specifically for the securities our financial system produces. Capital consistently pours into our economy from around the globe and buys up the products produced by our financial sector. The story seems to me to be clearly the opposite of what DeLong describes. We have such a high trust financial system that the world is routing much of its capital investments through our corporations and is using our system as the source for lower risk securities.
In fact, our supply problems with housing are undermining this process that has been made available through trust, because some of that capital would naturally filter into our housing markets, and if we had markets that could react with supply, the effect of that capital would have been to build houses where people want to live and to drive down rent instead of driving up prices. This global capital trade, built on the trust of the US financial system, should have reduced the cost of living of regular American families.
DeLong blames the shortage of safe assets on the inability of US financial intermediaries to convince savers that they can produce securities that have low risk. Where is the evidence for this? We aren't suddenly running a huge trade surplus as capital flees our economy for more trustworthy jurisdictions.
Securities reflect ownership in some sort of asset. Where we are lacking assets is in real estate. Here is a graph of the household real estate market values over time. I will show it first with a log scale, then with a normal scale. Even if we take the 50 year trend from the bottom of the market in the late 1990s, the trend would have us hitting $40 trillion in real estate by now, compared to the current level of about $25 trillion. Just as the graph above shows that implied yields from homes in the 2000s were not markedly different from yields in the 1980s, we see here that real estate values were not particularly distant from the long term trend, compared to the 1980s. But, there is no precedent for the drop in trend. It was the bust what done us in, not the boom.
Reasons for this, as I have mentioned already include (1) regulatory barriers that have kept millions of housing units from being built in the major metro areas and (2) the unnecessary collapse of the money supply and mortgage credit market after 2006. One problem is real and one is nominal.
So, we are short at least something like $15 trillion in assets in household real estate. That's a lot of phantom buildings that could be soaking up capital. And, these are capital outlays that would immediately begin pulling up real incomes, especially for low income households, because they would push rents down.
But, note, yields in housing aren't low. They are nearly at the top of the long term range, even though alternative real long term securities have very low rates. This is about lack of access. Institutions have been buying up real estate with all-cash investments, but the single family home market was so dominated by owner-occupiers that there is a limit to the speed at which they can increase demand. It's not a lack of trust in financial intermediaries that is stopping that investment from happening. It's not a lack of trust in financial intermediaries that is starving our metro areas of housing.
Is it lack of trust in private label MBSs? I doubt that DeLong is pushing for a return of these. But, the GSE's continue to have stagnant asset levels. Is there a lack of trust in the GSE securities? I don't think so.
Hence in order to reach full employment we need unrealistic assessments of real returns promised by investment in physical, intellectual, and organizational capital: we need bubbles.
So, these same savers that are too gun shy to invest in securities from financial intermediaries can be repeatedly tricked into making foolish investments with unrealistic expectations? Are investors too frigid or too amorous? Maybe they fluctuate between the two, and always at the wrong time? Those irrational investors seem to be doing a lot of work holding this model together.
The lack of trust is a lack of trust in the regulators and the monetary authority. The banks simultaneously have been told that they will need to take more legal responsibility for mortgages gone bad while the monetary authority continues to threaten deflationary policy. (FOMC members have been out today pushing for a September rate hike, while 5 year inflation expectations crash to 1.3%. You know how those irrational investors are, though. They were pushing 5 year inflation breakevens down to 1.3% back in September 2008, too. They're always doing stuff.) There are plenty of households who would like to fund new housing with mortgage credit. The average FICO score of rejected mortgages is higher now than the average FICO score of accepted mortgages was before the housing boom. There are plenty of investors who would fund it, too. It's the intermediaries that we have chased away.
DeLong recommends engaging in stimulus public spending in order to make up for the risk averse savers. Given that regulatory agencies from the city to the national level have destroyed tens of trillions worth of potential assets, governments definitely have access to low-yield borrowing looking for assets to fund. But, wouldn't it be better to fix the supply problem in the private sector?
Is the problem that investors won't fund low risk securities unless we construct a bubble, or is the problem that whenever investors fund low risk securities, our regulatory apparatus starts identifying bubbles and popping them? What we have here is strong form Inefficient Markets. While pundits, economists, and the man on the street all jeer "bubble" in unison, the few firms that have been able to pull together the organizational foundations to manage broad portfolios of rentable properties have been Hoovering up excess returns - returns that average households will be denied, for their own protection, of course. Haven't you heard? They've got short termism disease, the poor saps.
PS: In 2005, real estate market values were about 23% above my trend line. But, as I noted above, real estate values were probably inflated by about 40% because of accumulated excess rent inflation and expected future rent inflation. Imagine if we had let real estate values moderate by accommodating supply instead of undermining demand. Previous periods of moderation in real estate market values coincided with moderation in rent inflation. Rent had only begun to moderate back down to levels similar to core inflation at the peak of the boom in 2004 and 2005. Could it be the case that price/rent ratios were about to begin falling by 30% as rent inflation expectations fell, and what we needed was monetary accommodation to (1) encourage continued supply of new homes and (2) provide nominal cover for the real drop in home values that that supply would produce?
Which path had more downside? The one we took, where short termism was punished in our quixotic quest to make finance behave? Or the one we might have taken where we might have built a bunch of houses and struggled our way through a few years of 4% inflation?
I suspect that anyone reading this who believes we had a bubble fueled by short-termism will consider the idea that we should have built more houses to be farcical. I have already pointed out that rent inflation is an odd thing to see if you have an oversupply of homes. It should also be noted that homeowner vacancies were low until after we stopped building homes, housing inventory was low until after we stopped building homes. Rent, which had moderated in 2004 and 2005, shot up again after we stopped building homes. There is a lot of strange stuff to explain if this was an oversupply created by short-term speculation.
Not looking good lately, is it?
I keep sitting down to look at that paper on changing equity premiums and getting distracted.


At the end of the American Civil War, slavery was abolished.
Legally the former slaves were free and equal to white people.
The Ku Klux Klan was a white underground terrorist group. They would not accept black people as equals.
Members of the Ku Klux Klan dressed in white robes to stress their belief that whites were superior to blacks.
As a result many black people did not register to vote and kept away from white areas.
They created a wave of terror which included threats of violence, bullying, lynching, setting fire to buildings and murder, among blacks and those who tried to help them.
Blacks who tried to vote or gain an education were subjected to name calling, bullying and beatings from white people who supported the aims of the Ku Klux Klan.
Black Americans had to face the truth. The war was won, but the battle was not over. They would have to struggle against racial discrimination in order to gain fair and equal treatment.


text:
101 Career Paths for Every Personality [2023 Guide]
Top ↑What Myers-Briggs Personality Traits MeanExtrovert (E) or Introvert (I)Sensing (S) or Intuition (N)Thinking (T) or Feeling (F)Judging (J) or Perceiving (P)16 Myers-Briggs Personality TypesINTJ - The OrchestratorINTP - The RationalistINFJ - The HumanitarianINFP - The ImaginativeISTJ - The OrganizerISFJ - The ProtectorISTP - The ExplorerISFP - The MaestroENTJ - The ChiefENTP - The OratorENFJ - The HeroENFP - The MotivatorESTJ - The ExecutiveESTP - The EntrepreneurESFJ - The DelegateESFP - The EntertainerConclusionMoral of the story:101+ Career Paths Full Infographic
You probably took a Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) personality test at some point in your life.
You got four mysterious acronyms like ENTJ, INFP, or ESTP, without much insight on what they mean or how to use them.
Here's the rundown:
The letters in each MBTI personality type refer to a specific trait. The combination of those traits forms your personality type.
Your personality type is powerful:
It explains why some people are okay with navigating spreadsheets on a computer all day; while others need to feel like they are helping others through their careers. It also explains why some make better CEOs and some better psychologists.
Curious to see which career path you should take?
We've created an AWESOME guide that splits 101 career paths based on the 16 Myers-Briggs personality type groups.
Read on to explore:
101 Career Paths by Personality - Visual Guide
What Myers-Briggs Personality Traits Mean
16 Myers-Briggs Personality Types
Haven't done the MBTI test yet? You can take it here.
Your personality type will depend on four crucial factors:
Favorite world - Extrovert (E) or Introvert (I)
Information - Sensing (S) or Intuition (N)
Decisions - Thinking (T) or Feeling (F)
Structure - Judging (J) or Perceiving (P)
Here's a refresher on what all these mean and where you fall.
Extrovert (E) or Introvert (I)
Your favorite world is a descriptor of how you allocate your energy.
Do you like to focus on the outer world - other people, nature, external environment? Then you are an extrovert (E): outgoing, comfortable in groups, and energetic around other people.
Do you put your attention on your own inner world? Then, you are an introvert (I): you like doing things alone, like to reflect and are usually reserved.
Sensing (S) or Intuition (N)
The second criterion has to do with how you collect information.
A sensing (S) personality type pays attention to physical reality when collecting information. If you're a sensor, you trust experience first, are pragmatic, and only rely on facts.
A person who collects information through intuition (N) pays more attention to patterns in the information, rather than the hard facts. They like to work with symbols, theories, and look at the bigger picture.
Thinking (T) or Feeling (F)
The third preference pair describes how you make decisions.
If you make decisions based on objective principles and facts, you are a thinking (T) type. You enjoy technical and scientific subjects, where logic and facts are important. You are task-oriented, and sometimes can be a bit "uncaring" or "untactful".
If you think you make the best decisions by putting more weight on the people involved, then you are a feeling (F) type. You're all about maintaining harmony and making others happy. You are caring, tactful, but can sometimes be too idealistic or downright "cheesy".
Judging (J) or Perceiving (P)
Last, but not least, structure is all about what behaviors others tend to see from you in the "outer" world.
Are you structured and decided? Do you prioritize work before play, start things well before the deadline, and enjoy making to-do lists? Then you are a judging (J) type.
Are you flexible and adaptable? Do you work in bursts of energy, procrastinate, and hate planning? Then you're most likely a perceiving (P) type.
Different combinations of these characteristics yield 16 different personality types, which is a "code" with four letters.
For example, if you're an extrovert, sensing, feeling, and perceiving, you're an ESFP.
It goes without saying that you can have both traits of the same pair, as very few people are 100% one thing. You could be both an extrovert and an introvert, for example. These personality characteristics only refer to what's more dominant for you, and in no way put you in a box!
Now that's all cleared up, let's get to your career path!
INTJ - The Orchestrator
You are an INTJ if you are Introverted, Intuitive, Thinking, and Judging.
You are creative but dwell on the details, and usually like to work alone. You're an analytical problem-solver, always trying to improve systems, processes, and whatever else you find in your path.
Famous INTJs include Hillary Clinton, Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Sir Isaac Newton, and Stephen Hawking.
The top careers for an INTJ are:
INTP - The Rationalist
You are an INTP if you are Introverted, Intuitive, Thinking, and Perceiving.
You love thinking and experimenting with new ideas. You're very independent and like to analyze theory and numbers. Because you love deep thinking, you prefer positions that allow you to innovate.
Famous INTPs include Albert Einstein, Charles Darwin, Marie Curie, and Abraham Lincoln.
The top careers for a theory-loving INTP are:
Research & Academia
INFJ - The Humanitarian
You are an INFJ if you are Introverted, Intuitive, Feeling, and Judging.
This personality type is very rare - only 1% of the population are INFJs. You approach work with deep thoughtfulness, care, and imagination. You care deeply about others, but you are not a dreamer. You take actionable steps to make the world a better place.
Famous INFJs include Dr. Martin Luther King, Mother Teresa, Nelson Mandela, and Daniel Day-Lewis.
The best careers for a humanitarian are:
INFP - The Imaginative
You are an INFP if you are Introverted, Intuitive, Feeling, and Perceiving.
You are quiet, imaginative, and open-minded. Although intelligent, you dislike school and dread the thought of years of unimaginative routine tasks. This is why anything that is routine doesn't work for you.
Famous INFPs include Princess Diana, John Lennon, Kurt Cobain, and William Shakespeare.
The description should give you a hint to the best career paths for an INFP:
Museum curation
ISTJ - The Organizer
You are an ISTJ if you are Introverted, Sensing, Thinking, and Judging.
You are rational and don't like making impulsive decisions. You make for a great employee because you are reliable, objective, and sharp. You respect authority and want a sense of security and consistency from your career.
Famous ISTJs include Queen Elizabeth II, Warren Buffet, George Washington, and Harry Truman.
The top careers for an ISTJ are:
Military & Police
Inspection (of any kind)
ISFJ - The Protector
You are an ISFJ if you are Introverted, Sensing, Feeling, and Judging.
You are efficient and responsible but have a great desire to help others. Your personality traits are essential to the modern world - you are altruistic and skilled, so you usually find yourself happy in the service of others.
Famous ISFJs include Beyonce, Kate Middleton, Rosa Parks, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, and The Godfather himself, Vito Corleone.
The most suited careers for an ISFJ are:
Religious work
ISTP - The Explorer
You are an ISTP if you are Introverted, Sensing, Thinking, and Perceiving.
You are highly creative and have an individualistic mindset - stopping at nothing to achieve your goals. You thrive in the unknown and are a born problem-solver, although the problems you want to solve might not be so practical. This combination of curiosity and grit make ISFJs one of the most unique personality types out there.
Famous ISTPs include Michael Jordan, Bruce Lee, Tom Cruise, and Arya Stark from Game of Thrones.
The top career paths for an ISTP are in:
ISFP - The Maestro
You are an ISFP if you are Introverted, Sensing, Feeling, and Perceiving.
You love adventures and living in the moment. You use aesthetics and design to fuel your love for beauty. You don't care much about wealth, power, or security. In your job, you are looking for creative freedom and a chance to express yourself artistically.
Famous ISFPs include Mozart, John Travolta, Marie Antoinette, Michael Jackson, Steven Spielberg, Frida Kahlo, and Lana Del Rey.
The best career paths for a creative ISFP are:
ENTJ - The Chief
You are an ENTJ if you are Extroverted, Intuitive, Thinking, and Judging.
You make decisions quickly and are motivated by external rewards. You usually take charge of teams and have high self-confidence. You make sure to exercise your authority so that everyone is doing what they're supposed to and things are getting done.
Famous ENTJs include Steve Jobs, Margaret Thatcher, Gordon Ramsey, Malcolm X, and Whoopi Goldberg.
ENTJs do well in any career that will put them in charge. Some of the most suitable include:
ENTP - The Orator
You are an ENTP if you are Extroverted, Intuitive, Thinking, and Perceiving.
You are bold, creative, and sarcastic, and are not afraid of hard work to reach your goals. You have a quick wit and think well on your feet, which makes you a great debater. At work, you enjoy creating solutions for technical and intellectual problems.
Famous ENTPs include Thomas Edison, Leonardo Da Vinci, Mark Twain, Sarah Silverman, and Tyrion Lannister from Game of Thrones.
Top careers for ENTPs include:
ENFJ - The Hero
You are an ENFJ if you are Extroverted, Intuitive, Feeling, and Judging.
You love helping others and being the center of attention. You have strong ideas and values and are not afraid to stand for them. You reach your meaningful goals through creative energy and collaboration.
Famous ENFJs include Barack Obama, Oprah Winfrey, Jennifer Lawrence, and Maya Angelou.
The best career paths for an ENFJ personality are:
ENFP - The Motivator
You are an ENFP if you are Extroverted, Intuitive, Feeling, and Perceiving.
You are a true free spirit - charming, independent, and energetic. You enjoy interacting with others and exploring new ideas and want your work life to reflect that. You find EVERYTHING interesting, so you can have a hard time choosing a career path.
Famous ENFPs include Quentin Tarantino, Robin Williams, Sandra Bullock, Ellen DeGeneres, and Will Smith.
The top career paths for a curious ENFP are:
Film direction
ESTJ - The Executive
You are an ESTJ if you are Extroverted, Sensing, Thinking, and Judging.
You are a true leader and honor tradition and order. You have a strong moral compass and enjoy leading others and being busy. You gravitate towards careers that give you a sense of structure and organization, where you can exercise your responsibility and loyalty.
Famous ESTJs include George W. Bush, Simon Cowell, Judge Judy, Ella Baker, Frank Sinatra, and Lyndon B. Johnson.
ESTJs love climbing the corporate ladder, so top careers include:
Credit analysis
ESTP - The Entrepreneur
You are an ESTP if you are Extroverted, Sensing, Thinking, and Perceiving.
You are energetic, goal-oriented, and are inspired by short-term achievements. You want to be where the action is - making decisions daily while thinking on your feet. These are the most popular of the personality types, and they have an easy time networking and interacting with others.
Famous ESTPs include Donald Trump, Madonna, Eddie Murphy, Jack Nicholson, and Samuel L. Jackson.
The top careers for likable ESTPs include:
Front office clerk
In-the-field reporting
ESFJ - The Delegate
You are an ESFJ if you are Extroverted, Sensing, Feeling, and Judging.
Like all extroverts, you enjoy interacting with others and taking part in your community. You are an altruist and love to be of service to others. You are extremely loyal and well-organized and avoid conflict at all costs. You are happy to do what needs to be done and don't shy away from routines.
Famous ESFJs include Elton John, Bill Clinton, Steve Harvey, Taylor Swift, Danny Glover, and Monica from Friends.
The best career paths for the ESFJ personality type are:
ESFP - The Entertainer
You are an ESFP if you are Extroverted, Sensing, Feeling, and Perceiving.
As an ESFP, you are definitely THE life of the party. You randomly start singing and dancing and love giving out time and energy to other people. Any job that restrains you from that freedom will 100% make you miserable. You want excitement, interaction, and a chance to shine!
Famous ESFPs include Marilyn Monroe, Elvis Presley, Miley Cyrus, Jamie Foxx, and Adam Levine.
The top careers for an ESFP are:
That was a fun ride!
We hope you learned more about yourself and felt a bit more understood.
Moral of the story:
Don't settle for a career that won't make you happy. Get to know yourself and pick a career where you don't dread for Monday to come. No matter your personality type, there is a job out there where you can feel fulfilled AND be productive.
101+ Career Paths Full Infographic
In case you wish to share the entire visual infographic, here it is:
Want more interesting reads?
We have a few suggestions:
The Resume of Elon Musk - By Novorésumé
How to Brand Yourself and Increase Your Chances of Getting Hired
The One-Page Resume of Richard Branson - By Novorésumé

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


David Birnie has been charged with the murders of four people with his wife Catherine Birnie. We currently have the information on all of their victims.
22 year old Mary was murdered on October 6, 1986. She was raped, tortured and later strangled to death.
Susannah, age 15, was murdered on October 20, 1986. She was drugged and then strangled to death in Perth, West Australia.
31 year old Noelene was kidnapped on November 1, 1986. She was tortured and raped for three days before being murdered on November 4, 1986 in Perth, West Australia.
Denise, age 21, was murdered on November 5, 1986. She was tortured and raped prior to the murder in Perth, West Australia.


I had often visited Decathlon stores when on holiday in France and had always been impressed by their range of sporting equipment. Their own brand clothing seems especially popular over there, so when Decathlon-UK offered MyOutdoors a collection of their latest trail running gear to test, I was more than happy to volunteer my services.
The organisers of Keswick Mountain Festival (KMF) have announced that iconic 80s band Big Country will headline this year's live music line-up on the Subaru Stage.
A three-man, British expedition team has set a new speed record for an unsupported crossing the world's largest (by volume) freshwater lake, Siberia's Lake Baikal.
Brutal conditions for 50th Anniversary of the OMM.
The 50th Anniversary of the OMM was a huge success in the Lake District. Brutal conditions tested the competitors maintaining the OMMs' legendary reputation.
Lakeland Revival will be taking place for the fifth year running in the stunning Lake District National Park from 5th May to 31st August, 2018.
When it comes to selecting an insulated jacket it makes sense to have a look how insulation it works and with just a basic grasp of the essential principles you'll be able to make sense of the bewildering array of fill powers and fillings that face you.
Usually I prefer to wait at least hundred miles before putting pen to paper on a pair of running shoes. However, with a lot of excitement in the press and on social me- dia about the new Graphene range from Inov-8, I thought I would share my initial thoughts after a few weeks running in the new Inov-8 TERRAULTA G 260 Graphene.
With the 2018/19 UIAA ice climbing Combined World Championships kicking off in Moscow the GB Ice Climbing Team is in a state of chaos, with suspensions, funding issues and serious communication problems.


Brazil announced today Pequeno Segredo / Little Secret by David Schurmann will be representing the South American country at the 89th edition of the Academy Awards in the Foreign Language category over favorite Aquarius, the sophomore film by Kleber Mendonça Filho.
Brazil's Oscar race has been deeply contested and questioned over impartiality in the selection process after the appointment of a film critic to the selection committee, who has ferociously condemned the political protests by the filmmakers and cast of Aquarius in its world premiere at Cannes. With its North American premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival this week, its upcoming U.S. premiere at New York Film Festival, a confirmed theatrical run in the U.S. this fall, and universal acclaimed for its leading actress Sonia Braga, Aquarius had largely been considered a natural candidate to represent the South American nation at the Oscars.
Little Secret is based on the story of the filmmaker's adopted sister, who died of AIDS at the age of 13, is a three-part movie that narrates the lives of three families that interacted with her.


-	Additionally, if you don't have your localhost configured to accept the email, you likely won't get the file emailed to you.  Easier to just grab the CSV file to be honest.
Great observation ;) and even better solution with a single command!
I got into this post as I have been doing some research on mailbox migration for my company. My supervisor asked for some sample reports but I am not technical enough to run the script. Would you mind sharing how the result looks like after the script is run?
Did a test in my lab. But the script list All mailboxes. I just want mailboxes with delegates.
You must provide a value expression on the right-hand side of the '-' operator.
+ $delegateString = $delegateNames -J <<<< oin ","
I think your script is missing the closing "right curly bracket" for the "foreach ($user in $MailboxUsers)". It should appear before the line "# Export the output as CSV File".
Where is the updated version? Perhaps update the post?
A close brace "}" is missing in order to end the Foreach loop. It needs to be inserted below the "$Output += $OutputItem;" line.
Not working on Exchange 2010 - Looks like the cmdlet get-mailboxcalendarsettings no longer exists, need to use get-calendarprocessing instead.
I do not know much about powershell. How do I actually run this script? Do I need to paste this into a text file and name it something specific? Do I do something from the Exchange Management Shell? Your help is much apopreciated and thank you for your time writing this script!
Can you help me resolve this error?
$delegateString = $delegateNames -Join ", "
Add-Member : Cannot bind argument to parameter 'InputObject' because it is null.
Really sorry, there is a typo and I changed it now. can you please use the updated one?


text:
Q: Intuitive explanation of a definition of the Fisher information I'm studying statistics. When I read the textbook about Fisher Information, I couldn't understand why the Fisher Information is defined like this:
$$I(\theta)=E_\theta\left[-\frac{\partial^2 }{\partial \theta^2}\ln P(\theta;X)\right].$$
Could anyone please give an intuitive explanation of the definition?

A: From the way you write the information, it seems that you assume you have only one parameter to estimate ($\theta$) and you consider one random variable (the observation $X$ from the sample). This makes the argument much simpler so I will carry it in this way.
You use the information when you want to conduct inference by maximizing the log likelihood. That log-likelihood is a function of $\theta$ that is random because it depends on $X$. You would like to find a unique maximum by locating the theta that gives you that maximum. Typically, you solve the first order conditions by equating the score $\frac{\partial\ell \left( \theta ; x \right)}{\partial \theta} = \frac{\partial\log p \left( x ; \theta \right)}{\partial \theta}$ to 0. Now you would like to know how accurate that estimate is. How much curvature the likelihood function around its maximum is going to give you that information (if it's peaked around the maximum, you are fairly certain, otherwise if the likelihood is flat you are quite uncertain about the estimate). Probabilistically, you would like to know the variance of the score "around there" (this is heuristic and a non-rigorous argument. You could actually show the equivalence between the geometric and probabilistic/statistical concepts).
Now, we know that on average, the score is zero (see proof of that point at the end of this answer). Thus
\begin{eqnarray*}
  E \left[ \frac{\partial \ell \left( \theta ; x \right)}{\partial \theta}
  \right] & = & 0\\
  \int \frac{\partial \ell \left( \theta ; x \right)}{\partial \theta} p
  \left( x ; \theta \right) d x & = & 0
\end{eqnarray*}
Take derivatives at both sides (we can interchange integral and derivative here but I am not going to give rigorous conditions here)
\begin{eqnarray*}
  \frac{\partial}{\partial \theta} \int \frac{\partial \ell \left( \theta ; x
  \right)}{\partial \theta} p \left( x ; \theta \right) d x & = & 0\\
  \int \frac{\partial^2 \ell \left( \theta ; x \right)}{\partial \theta^2} p
  \left( x ; \theta \right) d x + \int \frac{\partial \ell \left( \theta
  ; x \right)}{\partial \theta} \frac{\partial p \left( x ; \theta
  \right)}{\partial \theta} d x & = & 0
\end{eqnarray*}
The second term on the left-hand side is
\begin{eqnarray*}
  \int \frac{\partial \ell \left( \theta ; x \right)}{\partial \theta}
  \frac{\partial p \left( x ; \theta \right)}{\partial \theta} d x & = &
  \int \frac{\partial \log p \left( x ; \theta \right)}{\partial \theta}
  \frac{\partial p \left( x ; \theta \right)}{\partial \theta} d x\\
  & = & \int \frac{\partial \log p \left( x ; \theta \right)}{\partial
  \theta} \frac{\frac{\partial p \left( x ; \theta \right)}{\partial
  \theta}}{p \left( x ; \theta \right)} p \left( x ; \theta \right) d x\\
  & = & \int \left( \frac{\partial \log p \left( x ; \theta \right)}{\partial
  \theta} \right)^2 p \left( x ; \theta \right) d x\\
  & = & V \left[ \frac{\partial \ell \left( \theta ; x \right)}{\partial
  \theta} \right]
\end{eqnarray*}
(here the second follows from dividing and multiplying by $p(x;\theta)$. The third line follows from applying the chain rule to derivative of log. The final line follows from the expectation of the score being zero, that is the variance is equal to the expectation of the square and no need to subtract the square of the expectation.)
From which you can see
\begin{eqnarray*}
  V \left[ \frac{\partial \ell \left( \theta ; x \right)}{\partial \theta}
  \right] & = & - \int \frac{\partial^2 \ell \left( \theta ; x
  \right)}{\partial \theta^2} p \left( x ; \theta \right) dx\\
  & = & - E \left[ \frac{\partial^2 \ell \left( \theta ; x \right)}{\partial
  \theta^2} \right]
\end{eqnarray*}
Now you could see why summarizing uncertainty (curvature) about the likelihood function takes the particular formula of Fisher information.
We can even go further and prove that the maximum likelihood estimator best possible efficiency is given by the inverse of the information (this is called the Cramér-Rao lower bound).

To answer an additional question by the OP, I will show what the expectation of the score is zero. Since $p \left( x,
\theta \right)$ is a density
\begin{eqnarray*}
  \int p \left( x ; \theta \right) \mathrm{d} x & = & 1
\end{eqnarray*}
Take derivatives on both sides
\begin{eqnarray*}
  \frac{\partial}{\partial \theta} \int p \left( x ; \theta \right) \mathrm{d}
  x & = & 0
\end{eqnarray*}
Looking on the left hand side
\begin{eqnarray*}
  \frac{\partial}{\partial \theta} \int p \left( x ; \theta \right) \mathrm{d}
  x & = & \int \frac{\partial p \left( x ; \theta \right)}{\partial \theta}
  \mathrm{d} x\\
  & = & \int \frac{\frac{\partial p \left( x ; \theta \right)}{\partial
  \theta}}{p \left( x ; \theta \right)} p \left( x ; \theta \right) \mathrm{d}
  x\\
  & = & \int \frac{\partial \log p \left( x ; \theta \right)}{\partial
  \theta} p \left( x ; \theta \right) \mathrm{d} x\\
  & = & E \left[ \frac{\partial \ell \left( \theta ; x \right)}{\partial
  \theta} \right]
\end{eqnarray*}
Thus the expectation of the score is zero.

This was a non-rigorous exposition. I recommend you follow on the arguments here in a very good textbook on statistical inference. (I personally recommend the book by Casella and Berger but there are many other excellent books.)

A: All these are correct, but they do not explain why we need to look at the curvature (Hessian) of the log-likelihood instead of the likelihood.
Put very informally: asymptotic normality states that the distribution of MLE estimators around mode is close to the likelihood (or mimics curvature of the likelihood) as number of samples approaches to infinity. The shape of the distribution gets close to a normal distribution centered on that mode and has the same curvature as the likelihood (NOT log-likelihood) at the mode.
I think the ideas behind asymptotic normality and Laplace approximation are intimately related. It is almost similar to an Laplace approximation around the mode of the likelihood.

A: From Wikipedia :

[Fisher] Information may be seen to be a measure of the "curvature" of the support curve near the maximum likelihood estimate of θ. A "blunt" support curve (one with a shallow maximum) would have a low negative expected second derivative, and thus low information; while a sharp one would have a high negative expected second derivative and thus high information.

P(θ;X) is the probability mass function of random observable X conditional on the value of θ. The Fisher Information is a way of measuring the amount of information X carries about the unknown parameter, θ. Thus, in light of the above quote, a strong, sharp support curve would have a high negative expected second derivative, and thus a larger Fisher information, intuitively, than a blunt, shallow support curve, which would express less information through X about θ.

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These are just some of our satisfied customers!
If you have bought any parts from us please send us a picture of our parts installed on your bike. We would love to see them and show people how they can make their bikes unique just as you did. Thanks.


The Democratic Party media tried desperately to discredit the Republican tax reform bill, assuring readers and viewers that it wouldn't do them any good. This makes it especially fun to watch the good news continue to roll out. And just wait until the overwhelming majority of working Americans get a raise next month!
The Washington Free Beacon created this delightful 2:31 video, in which Democratic Party broadcasters and "experts" claim tax reform wouldn't do any good, interspersed with news reports on raises, bonuses and new investments. Enjoy it!


Trump claims "Obama FBI" spied on him using an embedded informant.
The president appeared to be referring to a column published in the conservative-leaning National Review last week, which claimed that the FBI had placed a spy or "human source" inside the Trump campaign to pass information to federal authorities.
The column doesn't present any actual evidence to support the allegation, but rather theorizes on why past reporting on the origins of the ongoing Russia investigation being conducted by Special Counsel Robert Mueller is incorrect. Contributing editor Andrew McCarthy specifically argues that the narrative of former Trump campaign foreign policy adviser George Papadopoulos leaking information accidentally to a government agent, who then took that information back to the FBI, is wrong.
"Something tells me [Glenn Simpson], the co-founder of Fusion GPS, was dead-on accurate when he testified that Christopher Steele told him the FBI had a 'human source' — i.e., a spy — inside the Trump campaign as the 2016 presidential race headed into its stretch run,'" McCarthy writes.
Here, McCarthy is referring to testimony Simpson, whose firm Fusion GPS was hired to compile opposition research on Trump during the 2016 election, gave to the Senate Judiciary Committee in August last year. Fusion GPS ultimately contracted the work out to former MI-6 officer Christopher Steele, the author of the now-infamous (and partially verified) Trump-Russia dossier, which includes allegations of misconduct and possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian officials.
McCarthy, citing this exchange in his column on Saturday, claimed that subsequent attempts by Fusion GPS officials to explain Simpson's comments fell flat.
"Fusion GPS explained to friendly media that [Simpson had] 'mischaracterized' the source. He must have been talking about George Papadopoulos — not a 'human source' in the sense of willing informant or spy, but a person attached to the campaign whose statements to an Australian diplomat had been passed to the FBI," McCarthy wrote, referring to a conversation Papadopoulos had at a bar in London in May 2016, in which, after several drinks, the campaign adviser reportedly told former Australian politician Alexander Downer that "Russia had dirt on Hillary Clinton" in the form of hacked emails.
McCarthy — and others in conservative media since his column was published on Saturday — have argued instead that the Papadopoulos-as-informant theory doesn't hold water for a number of reasons.
Breitbart, in an article on Thursday, argued that the timing of FBI agents being dispatched to speak with Downer about his conversations with Papadopoulos didn't match up with the agency's statements about when the investigation into Russian collusion opened.
The term "government informant" cited in the Times piece in no way establishes the government had embedded a secret agent with the Trump campaign. Rather, it could suggest someone who may have had repeated contacts with the Trump campaign spoke with investigators about what they had heard or seen — a whistleblower, in some sense.
Both Trump and conservative pundits and journalists alike have run with the "embedded agent" theory regardless. On Capitol Hill, firebrands like Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA), chairman of the House Intelligence Committee — who has been criticized for his apparent bias toward Trump, even by members of his own party — has made repeated requests for highly classified materials that could unveil the name of the government source in question, despite intelligence officials warning that revealing such information could jeopardize the source. Nunes claims he has not made any specific requests or asked for the name of the source.
In the media, conservatives had expounded on the narrative, claiming it's the red flag Republicans need to prove the Russia investigation is a hoax and based on improperly obtained information.
Trump has previously claimed President Obama spied on him during the campaign, going so far as to allege his predecessor had wiretapped his offices in Trump Tower.


text:
package enums // import "google.golang.org/genproto/googleapis/ads/googleads/v0/enums"

import proto "github.com/golang/protobuf/proto"
import fmt "fmt"
import math "math"

// Reference imports to suppress errors if they are not otherwise used.
var _ = proto.Marshal
var _ = fmt.Errorf
var _ = math.Inf

// This is a compile-time assertion to ensure that this generated file
// is compatible with the proto package it is being compiled against.
// A compilation error at this line likely means your copy of the
// proto package needs to be updated.
const _ = proto.ProtoPackageIsVersion2 // please upgrade the proto package

// Possible values for a relationship type for an affiliate location feed.
type AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum_AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipType int32

const (
	// Not specified.
	AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum_UNSPECIFIED AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum_AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipType = 0
	// Used for return value only. Represents value unknown in this version.
	AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum_UNKNOWN AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum_AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipType = 1
	// General retailer relationship.
	AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum_GENERAL_RETAILER AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum_AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipType = 2
)

var AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum_AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipType_name = map[int32]string{
	0: "UNSPECIFIED",
	1: "UNKNOWN",
	2: "GENERAL_RETAILER",
}
var AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum_AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipType_value = map[string]int32{
	"UNSPECIFIED":      0,
	"UNKNOWN":          1,
	"GENERAL_RETAILER": 2,
}

func (x AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum_AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipType) String() string {
	return proto.EnumName(AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum_AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipType_name, int32(x))
}
func (AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum_AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipType) EnumDescriptor() ([]byte, []int) {
	return fileDescriptor_affiliate_location_feed_relationship_type_114735136ffb6223, []int{0, 0}
}

// Container for enum describing possible values for a relationship type for
// an affiliate location feed.
type AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum struct {
	XXX_NoUnkeyedLiteral struct{} `json:"-"`
	XXX_unrecognized     []byte   `json:"-"`
	XXX_sizecache        int32    `json:"-"`
}

func (m *AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum) Reset() {
	*m = AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum{}
}
func (m *AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum) String() string { return proto.CompactTextString(m) }
func (*AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum) ProtoMessage()    {}
func (*AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum) Descriptor() ([]byte, []int) {
	return fileDescriptor_affiliate_location_feed_relationship_type_114735136ffb6223, []int{0}
}
func (m *AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum) XXX_Unmarshal(b []byte) error {
	return xxx_messageInfo_AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum.Unmarshal(m, b)
}
func (m *AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum) XXX_Marshal(b []byte, deterministic bool) ([]byte, error) {
	return xxx_messageInfo_AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum.Marshal(b, m, deterministic)
}
func (dst *AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum) XXX_Merge(src proto.Message) {
	xxx_messageInfo_AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum.Merge(dst, src)
}
func (m *AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum) XXX_Size() int {
	return xxx_messageInfo_AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum.Size(m)
}
func (m *AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum) XXX_DiscardUnknown() {
	xxx_messageInfo_AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum.DiscardUnknown(m)
}

var xxx_messageInfo_AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum proto.InternalMessageInfo

func init() {
	proto.RegisterType((*AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum)(nil), "google.ads.googleads.v0.enums.AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum")
	proto.RegisterEnum("google.ads.googleads.v0.enums.AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum_AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipType", AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum_AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipType_name, AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipTypeEnum_AffiliateLocationFeedRelationshipType_value)
}

func init() {
	proto.RegisterFile("google/ads/googleads/v0/enums/affiliate_location_feed_relationship_type.proto", fileDescriptor_affiliate_location_feed_relationship_type_114735136ffb6223)
}

var fileDescriptor_affiliate_location_feed_relationship_type_114735136ffb6223 = []byte{
	// 314 bytes of a gzipped FileDescriptorProto
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}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
Unusual Article Uncovers the Deceptive Practices of Kaspersky Review
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What You Should Do to Find Out About Kaspersky Review Before You're Left Behind
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Kaspersky review


text:
SS Cushag was a coastal cargo vessel owned and operated by the Isle of Man Steam Packet Company between 1920 and 1943.

Dimensions
Cushag was a steel; single-screw vessel which had a registered tonnage of . Length 125'; beam 22'1"; depth 9'2". Cushag had a single steam reciprocating engine which developed 350 i.h.p.; and a design speed of 10 knots.

Service Life
Built by G. Brown & Co. at Greenock in 1908, she was originally named Ardnagrena. Her first owners were James Waterson & Co. of Antrim, who sold her to Humber Steam Coasters Ltd in 1914. Five years later she was sold once more, this time to a London broker, from whom she was purchased by the Isle of Man Steam Packet Company in May 1920, at a cost of £22,000 (equivalent to £).

Small and drawing so little water, she was mostly used for cargo trade in the Island's smaller ports - Port St Mary, Peel, Laxey and Castletown.

After over 20 years service with the Company, she was sold to London agents in January 1943, and then went on to Stornoway on the Isle of Lewis for four years. She transferred to Kirkwall in Orkney in 1947.

Disposal
Cushag register ceases on 20 July 1957, when she was broken up at Grangemouth.

Gallery

References

Bibliography
 Chappell, Connery (1980). Island Lifeline T.Stephenson & Sons Ltd

Ships of the Isle of Man Steam Packet Company
1908 ships
Steamships of the United Kingdom
Ferries of the Isle of Man
Merchant ships of the United Kingdom
Ships built on the River Clyde

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


It seems like every time I come across a Corning Ware pattern that I haven't seen before, it turns out to be from the 1990s. And I have a theory about that: The '90s were probably a period of decline for Corning Ware in general. I certainly wasn't aware of pyroceram cookware then — I wasn't going to buy it for my first apartment or put it on my wedding registry. And if no one else was doing that either, it's no surprise that Corning sold off the Corning Ware brand to World Kitchen at the end of the decade.
World Kitchen promptly killed off pyroceram production and switched to stoneware — cheaper to manufacture but a highly inferior product, in my opinion. So the '90s patterns are the last of a dying breed.
I've found myself with a little collection of '90s Corning Ware patterns, mostly scored at Goodwill and Savers — occasional finds in the sea of Blue Cornflower and Spice O' Life that's out there. They are by no means the only patterns from that era, but they have been fun to discover and add to my collection.
Also worth noting: The Corning Ware 411 blog is a terrific source for pattern identification, as well as interesting info about specific models, history, etc.
I hesitate to call this dish gumbo because the term is so loaded with a specific food culture. My version is probably not "authentic" — but it's delicious and hey, I can make gumbo however I want! I think of it sort of as a gumbo soup — hearty but not too thick in the broth department, full of Cajun flavors and with rice and greens mixed right in.
The spice level here is medium to hot — to me that's zesty but not mouth-on-fire hot. You could cut the red pepper flakes to go milder, or add cayenne to go hotter. Also, if you prefer a thicker stew, you could double the butter and flour.
In a large dutch oven, saute the sausage over medium heat until browned and the fat begins to render. Remove the sausage and set aside, leaving the drippings in the pan.
Lower the heat slightly, add the butter and stir until melted. Sprinkle in the flour and stir with a whisk until incorporated. Continue stirring constantly and cook until caramel in color, about 15-20 minutes (actual time can vary quite a bit; let the roux get as dark as you want, being careful not to burn).
Add the onions, bell peppers, carrots, celery and garlic and stir until coated in the roux. Add the diced tomatoes and deglaze, scraping up and stirring in the browned bits on the bottom of the pan. Add chicken broth, thyme, red pepper flakes, smoked paprika and bay leaves. Bring to a boil.
Add the chicken and lower to a simmer. Cover and cook until the chicken is no longer pink in the middle, about 20 minutes. Remove chicken and shred or chop into small pieces, set aside.
Add the collard greens and stir until wilted. Cover and simmer until the greens are tender, about 40 minutes.
Add the gumbo file, sausage, chicken, rice and salt and simmer for a minute, then serve.


text:
Contributor Details
Liz Ahmed
Liz Ahmed was appointed executive vice president, people and communications of Unum Group in October 2018. In this role, Ahmed is accountable for Unum's people strategy, including all aspects of the employee experience, and serves as the company's culture advocate and brand builder. Areas of responsibility include talent management, employee wellbeing, inclusion and diversity, corporate social responsibility and corporate communications.
Previously, Ahmed was executive vice president and chief human resources officer at AmTrust Financial Services, a multinational insurance holding company, from 2015 to 2018. Prior to that, she held positions as vice president of human resources at Equity Trust Company, senior vice president of human resources at PNC Bank and spent 10 years in human resources leadership positions at Marsh USA, a global leader in insurance broking and risk management.
She received her master's in organizational design and analysis from the Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland and her bachelor's degree from the University of Sussex in England.
Ahmed lives in Chattanooga with her husband and is active in the community, serving on the boards of the Partnership for Families, Children and Adults and the Tennessee Aquarium.
Break Barriers to Build an Equitable Culture
Work Wisdom 37
Tips to build a more equitable and inclusive culture in the workplace.
Taking Pride in Creating an Inclusive Workplace for LGBTQ+ Employees
Colonial Life Cares 142
Taking Pride in Creating an Inclusive Workplace for LGBTQ+…
As a proud supporter of the LGBTQ+ community, Colonial Life and Unum are making sure Pride has a home in the workplace.…
Benefits workers want in 2021
I can't believe it's been one year since the pandemic forced us into a challenging new normal. In the…
Women's Equality Day: How to advance women at work
If there aren't a lot of women in leadership positions at your workplace, your organization might not be performing…


Differences in neurosurgical treatment of intracerebral haemorrhage: a nation-wide observational study of 578 consecutive patients.
A randomized controlled study assessing outcome, cognition, autonomy and quality of life in over 70-year-old patients after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.
Embolization of brain arteriovenous malformations with intent to cure: a systematic review.


SOMERSWORTH — You'd think somebody was in a hurry to get somewhere the way the Farmington and Somersworth High School softball teams burn through a seven-inning game.
For the second time this season the two Class M teams played a game in about one hour with Somersworth claiming a 2-0 win to snap an eight-game losing streak on May 20 (Farmington won the first meeting, 1-0, on May 6). Freshman pitcher Erica Boulanger limited the Tigers (7-7) to one hit and just two base runners in seven innings as she whiffed six, walked no one and hit a batter. She retired the side in order in five of the seven innings.
Somersworth (3-9) scored both its runs in the third after there were two out. Jillian Casey led off the inning with an infield single, but was quickly erased at the back end of a line drive double play. Boulanger roped the ball right at Tiger second baseman Jessica Tattersall and she doubled Casey off first with a quick throw to Shannen Vaughn for the second out.
The Hilltoppers maintained two-out life when Janelle Lavin reached on an infield error. She moved to second on a walk to Danielle Hardee and both runners moved up a base on a wild pitch. Taylor Brooks' infield hit brought in Lavin and a solid single to center field by Chelsea Powers made it 2-0.
Meanwhile, Boulanger was setting down the Tigers in droves. She hit Amber Rodney, the second batter of the game, with a pitch, but got the next two batters on a nice running catch in left field by Brooks and a pop out to shortstop.
Alyssa Valladares led off the Tiger third with a single off Brooks' glove in left, which easily could have been scored an error. She advanced to second on a groundout, but was left there when Boulanger got the next two Farmington hitters on a foul out and a groundout. In fact, after the hit by Valladares, the Tigers did not reach base the rest of the way as Boulanger retired the final 15 batters she faced.
"I don't know what to do," said Farmington coach Ron Howard, whose team was shutout for the second straight game. "We've used the pitching machine, my assistant throws to them and she can pitch. I don't understand it. We're over swinging, they got a hitch in their swings, they're all popping the ball up. My clean-up batter hasn't had a hit in three games. ... I don't know what to do to ignite it. Pop ups. If they're not striking out they're popping up. I don't know where that's coming from."
Farmington's Martineau pitched a fine game herself, striking out two, while allowing four hits and one walk. Both runs were unearned. She had four 1-2-3 innings.
The Farmington softball team beat neighboring Nute Thursday, 7-1, to end a two-game losing streak and move above .500 at 8-7.
Martineau was the winning pitcher and she had two hits to help the Tigers' cause. Shannen Vaughn (RBI) and Steph McDaniel also had two hits apiece, while Cassie Camire and Jessica Tattersall had one each.
Farmington has two games to play and will be ont ehr oad for the tournament, regardless of the outcome of those games. The Tigers will mae the tournament for the first time since 2001 when that team went winless and qualified for what was an open tournament that year. Then last time a Farmington team "earned" its way in was 2000.


text:
In the News May 26
Do Not Let Warmongers Speak in Our Name!
Armed Forces Digital Recruitment Campaign
Besides increasing the amounts of money to fund NATO and weapons, Canada's Armed Forces are also conducting what they call a Digital Recruitment Campaign to co-opt the youth.
The vice-chief of Canada's defence staff said in a March 10 press release that the military is embarking on a digital recruitment drive to build up its numbers, Canadian Press (CP) reported at the time.
"Lt.-Gen. Frances Allen told an international defence conference in Ottawa that a priority was to build back Canadian Armed Forces capacity. Given the inquiries into racism, sexism, discrimination and mistreatment in the military it is not surprising to hear Allen say that "leaders are addressing 'many flaws' with the recruiting process."
"The recruitment drive will focus on the skills Canada's Armed Forces need, and retaining existing members is also important," Allen said. "[A] culture change is ongoing, which will allow people to 'be their best' without feeling they are 'an outsider' or 'an other,'" CP reported her saying.
Also a CBC report from March 23 says:
"Canada's military reports that it's roughly 7,600 members short of full strength — just as NATO is deploying more troops to eastern Europe in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
"The latest figure was recorded on Feb. 15 and shows a major shortfall in what the military calls its "trained, effective strength." The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) has roughly 65,000 regular members.
"'This is of course a number one priority for all of us, ensuring readiness is not affected by our current trained, effective strength,' said Maj.-Gen. Simon Bernard, the military's lead on reconstituting the forces.
"Gen. Wayne Eyre, chief of defence staff, said earlier this month that operational readiness is 'one of the things that keeps me awake at night' as he laid out his plans to rebuild the military for an 'increasingly dangerous future.'
"David Perry, the president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, said CAF's membership shortfall is 'significant.'
"'[The military] always put the highest priority on operational commitments, including NATO, so the short-term impacts will probably be low,' said Perry. 'But if we can't quickly fix that shortfall, it will impact what we can commit to NATO in the medium and long term.'"
This puts the onus on the democratic and peace-loving youth to oppose their recruitment to be used as cannon fodder in U.S.-led NATO wars.
Not a Single Youth for Imperialist War!
(TML Daily, posted May 26, 2022)


Implementing Learnings - Entrepreneurial Matters: Coaching for the Entrepreneur; Making Your Business Profitable, Stress Free & Fun!
Last night I arrived back home to rainy chilly Dublin after spending 2 weeks in sunny Datchet (near Windsor) in the UK, I had been attending Frontier Trainings Advanced courses: Sales Explosion, Dynamic Impact, and Business Empire. The courses are the brain children of Clinton Swaine, an awesome phenomenal international Trainer & Coach, Clinton has designed over 100 experiential games designed specifically to teach business owners the principles of business success.
I have attended quite a lot of training in my time and I have never experienced anything so impactful, that has created lasting change with regard to both understanding of and practical application of principles essential to be successful in business.
I had several personal breakthrough experiences, one of which concerned my presentation style, I finally realised that all the positive feedback with regards to my presentation style was valid! I now know that my skills are valuable, and despite my being painfully aware of things I could improve, and perhaps because of that very fact I am in fact a good quality presenter. (I could have received feedback on this until the cows come home and wouldn't have believed it, but through the experiences I encountered on these trainings it was impossible to deny the value I have to offer, very powerful dynamics are created within the training room).
I also had groundbreaking experiences with regard to how I lead, and I have now dramatically improved my leadership style to include a LOT of CELEBRATIONS!! This will have an extremely positive impact on all of my clients!! And I'll have even more fun in my business whilst continuing to grow my profits!!
I'm excited at how I'm going to implement all my learnings into my business, I came away with an action list longer than my arm, so my task now is to prioritise!
Frontier Trainings courses include games which are designed to emmulate business environments, and because of the 100% immersion by the students they leave with the ability to implement the learnings into their businesses, resulting in greater profits, more fun and they find that things become a whole lot easier!
Clinton Swaine is a genius and I will be forever grateful for the wisdom, growth and value I have gained from having the honour of attending his trainings.