text:
Marina Adshade
Economist, Writer, and Speaker | Women, sex, love, and work
Marina Adshade, Ph.D.
Dollars & Sex
New Trend: Men don't want babies either
by Marina Adshade
In Main Index
Jezebel, the women-focused website with a penchant for feminism and cute animals, recently declared the beginning of a new era with the eye-catching headline: "New Trend: Men Wanting Babies, Women Wanting Freedom". The article, and a similar one in New York Magazine, proclaims an end to supposedly long-standing paradigm in which maternally driven women have been forcing men into reluctant fatherhood. Men, apparently, are now the ones pushing for children.
Their story goes something like this. Back when women did all the work raising children and caring for the home, women wanted to have children, but men did not. Now that men are taking on a greater share of the workload at home, men want to have children, but women do not. In summary, the anticipation of more work is making men eager to become fathers and the anticipation of less work is making women more reluctant.
Perhaps that is not quite their argument, but it does hinge heavily on the relative contribution women make to childrearing, which, in reality, has only decreased over time.
This argument of a gender reversal in the willingness to have children is shakily supported by an anecdote about a married couple in which he is keen to have children, and she is still trying to decide, and a 2011 Match.com study of singles over the age of 21 which found that more men who had no children under the age of 18 living at home said they wanted to have children (24 per cent) than did single women with no children at home (18 per cent).
It seems to me, however, that if you want to proclaim a new trend, you should be relying on something a little more substantial than "conventional wisdom" from the past. And the evidence from the past suggests that there is absolutely nothing new about men being more eager to have children than women.
The Statistics Canada General Social Survey of the family has been asking Canadian men and women about their fertility intentions for decades with this question, "How many children do you plan to have, including the ones that have already been born or you are expecting at this time?"
When this question was first asked in 1990, more women than men expressed a disinterest in having children. Among childless men and women between the ages of 15 and 44, 15 per cent of women said they had no desire to have children in the future compared to only 10 per cent of men. Additionally, more men than women expressed a desire to have children in every age group and regardless of whether they were married, single, cohabitating, or divorced.
As expected, the share of women who wish to remain childless has increased over time, up to 23 per cent in 2011, but contrary what we are being told, the share of men who wish to remain childless has increased by even more, almost doubling to 19 per cent.
While the media seems fixated on women who are choosing to forgo motherhood, the trend in men is much more interesting. It seems that in an era in which women are making a bigger contribution to the household income, and in which men are expected to dedicate more hours to parenting, men are responding by acting more like women: they are willing to forgo parenthood all together.
Back in 1990, Canadian women out-earned their husbands in only one in five marriages in which both the husband and wife worked. Today, the share of those marriages in which the wife earns more than her husband has climbed to almost one in three. Economic theory predicts that when dividing the responsibility for childcare, the parent who has the lowest income should be the one who reduces their work hours when that is necessary. Relative to the past, today that person is more frequently the father and some men, like some women, are choosing not to make that sacrifice.
There is no new trend in which men want babies. Men have always wanted babies as long as women were willing to make all the sacrifices. Now that those sacrifices are more evenly shared between parents, no one should be surprised to learn that fewer men now want to have children.
This piece originally appeared at The Globe and Mail under the title Actually, men have always wanted more children than women have
Men, elections, porn, the Super Bowl: The lasting effects of testosterone (with David Berri)
Teenage boys, not young women, need sexual-assault programs
As a now 38-year-old woman dating in the US, I have noticed some tendencies in the men I date. Nonwhite men are more likely to want children than white men. Conservative and religious men are also more likely to want kids than liberal and nonreligious men and are less likely to see lack of financial standing as a barrier to having kids. If a man is divorced and already has kids, very rarely will he want to have any more, unless he is quite wealthy. There are also men who say into their 40s and beyond that they are open to having children, but they continue to play the field and date like a man who does not want to settle down and start a family any time soon. These factors remain roadblocks to women like myself who want to have children. These are just my observations and personal anecdotes. Would love to see more data gathered on this subject. Thanks!
Thank you for writing this, it´s nice to see a qualified person debunking third wave feminist myths and propaganda. Please do more of this! 🙂
While this achieves the agenda of depopulating the world, it begs the question of the nature of the society that will actually remain. Will it be filled with failed abortions? People who are too uneducated to read and/or be affected by social propaganda? The stray religious person?
What kinds of values will such a society have? For it surely will be one that cannot be motivated by the greatest love and beauty in the world, the smile, affability, and gentle nature of a child. What will this society value more? Sipping coffee in front of vacant screens? Idle text chatter, or the drums of divisive, inconsequential and narcissistic wars of opinion and hoarded resources? Will children be banned from public places, and their parents shamed as has happened to smokers or other people engaging in socially frowned upon behavior?
I thought initially this was a war on the poor, but, the poor rarely have the time or luxury to be affected by media propaganda; they work, and sometimes can't even afford contraception. Most of the extreme poor people I now have several children – often four or more. If they didn't plan their existing children, they usually will not plan to "not have" children either. So who is this propaganda trying to convince to self-eliminate? I'm thinking for some reason they want fewer literate, educated people. What's the world going to look like with .0001% elite people raising families of four or more kids, and then on the flip end, extremely poor people doing the same, and then no one in between? I fail to see how this will be desirable for anyone – in that circumstance the poor people would easily kill off the rich people, and with it any extermination propaganda. Alternatively if the rich people were bent upon exterminating the poor – it would make more sense for them to encourage at least a few scientists to keep having kids – or some kind of educated buffer workforce; just attempting to sterilize anyone not dirt poor or within their social circles is creating even more work for themselves. And not the kind that sitting in a cubicle sipping coffee and typing out texts can fix.
This propaganda is getting more and more bizarre.
Dr. Marina AdshadeFollow
Retweet on TwitterDr. Marina Adshade Retweeted
David Berri@wagesofwins·
https://t.co/BV2cPuXZmq
Man does something he should apologize for.
Is called out about this by @MarinaAdshade.
After his response...
now he has two things to apologize for.
Really... just say you are sorry. Twice!
abortion beauty children China college condoms contraceptives crime dating divorce economic growth economics education fertility finance happiness HIV/AIDs homosexuality infidelity Internet interracial marriage love marriage monogamy online dating politics polygamy pornography pregnancy promiscuity prostitution rape real estate religion same sex marriage sex trades sexual harassment sex work STDs students technology teenagers teen births unemployment women's wages


text:
Q: Data Warehouse é Orientado a Transação ou a Consulta? Contexto do Problema
Lendo sobre o assunto Data Warehouse, tirei algumas conclusões distintas sobre o que afirma o livro texto.

Observe o que o autor explica em relação a DW orientado a transação:

Entendo que o autor afirma que os DW são orientados a transação.

Agora veja o que ele diz no parágrado seguinte:

Logo em seguida ele afirma que os DW não são orientados a transações de rotina, o que me deixou um pouco confuso, já que ele está negando.
Meus Entendimentos

*

*Ao ler sobre o assunto entendi que os DW são ferramentas de apoio a decisão e que são orientados a consultas.

*Entendi que por serem focados nas consultas, o banco pode não respeitar as tão conhecidas formas normais (1FN,2FN,3FN), já que elas aumentam a quantidade de relações e diminuem a chance de duplicação.

*O fato é que o aumento de relações no banco afeta o desempenho das consultas por causa dos diversos ´JOIN´ que são constantemente realizados.

*Os DW costumam ser bem grandes já que ele serve de repositório central de todos os outros bancos de dados.

*Banco de dados transacionais (Convencionais) estão preocupados com a não duplicação de registro, dessa forma, tendem a respeitar as formas normais. Podendo ser chamados de bancos orientados a transação.

*Os dados armazenados no DW possuem característica NÃO volátil, significa dizer que na etapa de carregamento, os dados são filtrados e limpos, após essa etapa os dados somente sofrem operações de consultas e exclusões, sem que possam ser alterados, essa característica representa a não volatilidade.
Dúvida
Meus entendimentos sobre o assunto estão corretos? A comunidade concorda total ou parcialmente com as sentenças enumeradas acima?

Lembrando que o principal foco da pergunta está no título, ou seja, posso considerar de fato que os DW são orientados a consulta?

Fonte: Sistemas de Banco de dados 6ª edição, autores: Elmasri, Ramez Navathe, Shamkant B. Ano: 2011 Cap 29, pg 720

A: Achei o primeiro fragmento meio curto, vale lembrar outra caracteristica importante de DW que os dados praticamente não sofrem (nem deve) alterações para não interferir no resultado da analise e registros novos são adicionados periodicamente via lote (ETL).
Transações são usadas mais em operações de escrita onde é importante concluir todas as alterações com sucesso ou cancelar tudo e voltar para o estado (válido) anterior.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


X0X005 - BLASTROMEN - BLASTEROIDS EP - 12"
Best vocador work, synth work.
peace & respect from Heidelberg Germany !!!
i have a podcast for next month and i will put this release the fist one!!
Another Great release from the Blastromen.
Aye its a killer e.p. im still trying to get ahold of the first one, if anyone has a spare let me know .
got is some time ago.
btw it would be nice to hear their live set!


3 Lessons Learned from the Penn State Scandal - Activate Group Inc.
The Penn State scandal has been all over the news these past few weeks and it got me thinking. I wondered how such a respected and seemingly professional establishment could have allowed this situation to go so far. How did these secrets stay buried for so long and how could an organization with such moral conviction let these decades-long accusations fester in the dark without follow-up?
Looking from the outside in, I can only assume that the internal communications and processes for handling crises are severely flawed on many levels. Here's what I think we as business leaders can all learn and apply to our own organizations after watching the Penn State scandal unfold.
1. The truth will always come out.
It's the golden rule of public relations: attempting to hide a negative, potentially damaging situation within the company only makes it worse. By trying to bury the accusations against Sandusky, Penn State made the entire situation far worse by being exposed after it festered beneath the surface for years. I've seen it happen in many organizations. If someone in your organization—I don't care who it is—is involved with something unethical or illegal, it must be dealt with immediately. Damage control processes need to be activated with your corporate communications folks and a crisis plan needs to be created. Because the truth will always come out, even if after many years in hiding.
2. The open-door policy must be lived, not just talked about.
Most companies have an open-door communication policy but many don't live up to it. In the Penn State situation it was clear that Sandusky's improprieties were witnessed and reported to superiors. Nothing was done about it. But something made the whistleblower stop there. Was he told to let it go? Was he made to feel like a detractor for blowing his whistle? Whatever the case may be, we can all learn that when an employee comes forward with something it must be taken seriously and there must be absolutely no element of discouragement or retribution for being the one that came forward. An open-door policy that is lived is one that instills a sense of comfort and safety for employees that need to bring bad things to light.
3. No one is immune from responsibility.
Joe Paterno is probably the most loved college coach of all time, and clearly a pillar of the Penn State organization—not just the football team. Yet even he is not immune from doing the right thing when faced with a difficult situation with one of his employees. All leaders should take this to heart. As a leader, you are responsible for the wellbeing of your company first. Personal relationships must take a back seat to the law.
Have you ever faced a difficult legal or ethical situation in your professional life? How did you choose to deal with it?


text:
package script;

import java.util.ArrayList;
import java.util.Collection;
import java.util.Iterator;
import java.util.TreeSet;

import org.slf4j.Logger;
import org.slf4j.LoggerFactory;

import com.xinqihd.sns.gameserver.battle.BattleUser;
import com.xinqihd.sns.gameserver.battle.DelayComparator;
import com.xinqihd.sns.gameserver.battle.RoleStatus;
import com.xinqihd.sns.gameserver.config.GameDataKey;
import com.xinqihd.sns.gameserver.db.mongo.GameDataManager;
import com.xinqihd.sns.gameserver.script.ScriptManager;
import com.xinqihd.sns.gameserver.script.ScriptResult;
import com.xinqihd.sns.gameserver.script.ScriptResult.Type;

/**
 * Pick a user from all battle users that will be the next round's owner.
 *
 * The algorithm is in EXCEL "行动计算"
 *
 * 1 计算全场所有活着的玩家的最高敏捷值
 * 2 循环所有存活玩家,其DELAY值按照这个公式计算:
 *     玩家的DELAY += BASE * ( 最大敏捷 - 玩家敏捷 ) / 最大敏捷
 * 3 选出最小DELAY的单位,由它开始下一回合
 *
 * BASE数字可配置,推荐为10
 *
 * 数值循环表
 * 玩家的敏捷从 0 - 70, Delay以一个随机数开始,循环100回合,每回合各玩家
 * 分别增加100的Delay,各个玩家的回合数如下:
 *
 *   User agility: 70, delay:1794, round: 17
 *   User agility: 60, delay:1784, round: 16
 *   User agility: 50, delay:1740, round: 15
 *   User agility: 40, delay:1776, round: 13
 *   User agility: 30, delay:1787, round: 12
 *   User agility: 20, delay:1785, round: 10
 *   User agility: 10, delay:1781, round: 9
 *   User agility: 0,  delay:1817, round: 8
 *
 *
 * @author wangqi
 *
 */
public class PickRoundUser {

	private static final Logger logger = LoggerFactory.getLogger(PickRoundUser.class);

	public static ScriptResult func(Object[] parameters) {
		ScriptResult result = ScriptManager.checkParameters(parameters, 1);
		if (result != null) {
			return result;
		}
		try {
			BattleUser roundOwner = findRoundOwner(parameters);

			ArrayList list = new ArrayList();
			list.add(roundOwner);

			result = new ScriptResult();
			result.setResult(list);
			result.setType(Type.SUCCESS_RETURN);

			return result;
		} catch (Exception ex) {
			ex.printStackTrace();
		}
		return null;
	}

	/**
	 * Find proper round owner.
	 * @param parameters
	 * @return
	 */
	private static BattleUser findRoundOwner(Object[] parameters) {
		float maxAgility = Integer.MIN_VALUE;
		//1. Find the highest aligity user
		Collection battleUsers = (Collection) parameters[0];
		BattleUser lastRoundOwner = (BattleUser) parameters[1];

		for (Iterator iterator = battleUsers.iterator(); iterator.hasNext();) {
			BattleUser user = (BattleUser) iterator.next();
			if ( user != null && !user.containStatus(RoleStatus.DEAD) ) {
				if ( maxAgility < user.getUser().getAgility() ) {
					maxAgility = user.getUser().getAgility();
				}
			}
		}
		if ( maxAgility == 0 ) {
			logger.debug("maxAgility is 0");
			maxAgility = 50;
		}
		float base = GameDataManager.getInstance().getGameDataAsInt(
				GameDataKey.DELAY_AGLITY_BASE, 100);

		BattleUser roundOwner = null;

		if ( lastRoundOwner != null ) {
			/**
			 * 计算每一个回合,根据agility,各个玩家需要额外增加的delay数值
			 */
			for (Iterator iterator = battleUsers.iterator(); iterator.hasNext();) {
				BattleUser user = (BattleUser) iterator.next();
				if ( user == lastRoundOwner ) {
					int userDelay = user.getDelay();
					int userAgility = user.getUser().getAgility();
					if ( userAgility == 0 ) userAgility = 1;
					float addedDelay = base*(maxAgility - userAgility)/userAgility;
					//float delayRatio = maxAgility / userAgility;
//					if ( addedDelay == 0 ) {
//						addedDelay = 10;
//					}
					logger.info("User {} delay {} and addedDelay {}", new Object[]{user.getUser().getRoleName(), userDelay, addedDelay});
					//userDelay *= delayRatio;
					userDelay += addedDelay;
					user.setDelay(userDelay);
				}
			}//for ...
		}

		TreeSet battleUserSet = new TreeSet(DelayComparator.getInstance());
		battleUserSet.addAll(battleUsers);

		BattleUser validUser = null;
		for (Iterator iterator = battleUserSet.iterator(); iterator.hasNext();) {
			BattleUser user = (BattleUser) iterator.next();
			if ( user != null && !user.containStatus(RoleStatus.DEAD) ) {
				if ( validUser == null ) {
					validUser = user;
				}
				if ( !user.containStatus(RoleStatus.ICED) ) {
					if ( user.getRoundOwnerTimes() > 1 && iterator.hasNext() ) {
						BattleUser nextUser = (BattleUser) iterator.next();
						user.setDelay(nextUser.getDelay());
						roundOwner = nextUser;
					} else {
						roundOwner = user;
						break;
					}
				}
			}
		}

		if ( roundOwner == null ) {
			if ( validUser != null ) {
				roundOwner = validUser;
				logger.debug("Cannot pickup a round user because all users are dead or frozen. validUser: {}", validUser);
			} else {
				roundOwner = validUser;
			}
		}

		if ( roundOwner != null ) {
			roundOwner.setRoundOwnerTimes(roundOwner.getRoundOwnerTimes()+1);
			for (Iterator iterator = battleUsers.iterator(); iterator.hasNext();) {
				BattleUser user = (BattleUser) iterator.next();
				if ( user != null && user != roundOwner ) {
					user.setRoundOwnerTimes(0);
				}
			}
			logger.debug("The user '{}' round owner times is: {}",
					roundOwner.getUser().getRoleName(), roundOwner.getRoundOwnerTimes());
		}
		return roundOwner;
	}

}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
A Hold hegyei, Ptolemaiosz által a Nílus forrásának tartott hegység Közép-Afrikában;
A Hold hegyei, Richard Francis Burton és John Hanning Speke közép-afrikai expedíciójáról készült mozifilm.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


text:
Saint Helena Island, SC Foreclosures
Saint Helena Island, SC Preforeclosures
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Home / South Carolina Foreclosures / Saint Helena Island Sc Foreclosures
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Tax Liens (56)
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Find the best foreclosure homes listings for sale — bank-owned, government (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, HUD, etc.) and others — in and near the Saint Helena Island, SC area at Foreclosure.com. Get information on foreclosure homes for rent, how to buy foreclosures in Saint Helena Island, SC and much more. Save thousands at closing with home foreclosure listings in Saint Helena Island, SC — up to 75% off market value!
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Saint Helena Island (South Carolina)
St. Helena Island is a Sea Island in Beaufort County, South Carolina, United States. The island is connected to Beaufort by U.S. Highway 21. The island has a land area of about 64 square miles and a population of 8,763 as of the 2010 census. It is included as part of the Hilton Head Island-Beaufort Micropolitan Area. The island is renowned for its rural Lowcountry character and being a major center of African-American Gullah culture and language. It is considered to be the geographic influence behind the children's television program Gullah Gullah Island.
The first European to explore St. Helena was most likely Spanish explorer Lucas Vázquez de Ayllón around 1520, as part of the Spanish exploration and colonization of the sea islands. Deepwater Santa Elena was established as the center of the area, and at one time was the capital of the entire Spanish colony of La Florida.
There are currently 94 red-hot tax lien listings in Saint Helena Island, SC.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Electric over hydraulic single acting power units are used in applications in which a vertically mounted, single acting hydraulic cylinder is used for moving objects in one direction (also referred to as, power up/gravity down). Single acting hydraulic power units are commonly used on applications, including: dump beds, dump trailers, scissor lifts, compactors, dump hoists, and many more! MTE power packs are proudly made in the USA and include a one year manufacturer's warranty.
* Options in reservoir size and mounting are available. Please call store at 1-800-823-4937 for more information.


text:
Q: App-Only Token Fetches Users But Can't Create Subscriptions? I am using an "app-only" token to retrieve my users which works just fine.
Once the app loops through the users, it's supposed to create a subscription as shown below.
However, when attempting to create the subscription, the request simply returns:

Code: InvalidRequest Message: Unable to connect to the remote server
Inner error

My question is, why does the subscription request fail to connect when I am obviously able to successfully connect in the first request which retrieves the users?
How can I see the inner error?
string tenantId = appSettings.TenantId;

var client = sdkHelper.GetAuthenticatedClientAppOnly(tenantId);

// this request works...
IGraphServiceUsersCollectionPage users = await client.Users.Request().Filter("userPrincipalName eq 'MY_USER_PRINCIPAL_NAME'").GetAsync();

if (users?.Count > 0)
{
    foreach (User user in users)
    {
        // this request doesn't work...
        Subscription newSubscription = new Subscription();
        string clientState = Guid.NewGuid().ToString();
        newSubscription = await client.Subscriptions.Request().AddAsync(new Subscription
        {
            Resource = $"users/{ user.Id }@{ tenantId }/mailFolders('Inbox')/messages",
            //Resource = $"users/{ user.UserPrincipalName }/mailFolders('Inbox')/messages", // also tried using email address
            ChangeType = "created",
            NotificationUrl = "https://localhost:44334/notification/listen",
            ClientState = clientState,
            //ExpirationDateTime = DateTime.UtcNow + new TimeSpan(0, 0, 4230, 0) // current maximum lifespan for messages
            ExpirationDateTime = DateTime.UtcNow + new TimeSpan(0, 0, 15, 0)     // shorter duration useful for testing
        });
    }
}

When I wrap the call in a try/catch, the error message is just this with no inner exception:

Exception of type 'Microsoft.Graph.ServiceException' was thrown.

I have tried all three resources URLs but all result in the same error as shown above:

*

*Resource = $"users/{ user.Id }/mailFolders('Inbox')/messages",

*Resource = $"users/{ user.Id }@{ tenantId }/mailFolders('Inbox')/messages",

*Resource = $"users/{ user.UserPrincipalName }/mailFolders('Inbox')/messages",
I found this thread on github but the requests don't seem to work for me.

*

*Allow Application-Only requests to create subscriptions - https://github.com/microsoftgraph/microsoft-graph-docs/issues/238

A: NotificationUrl cannot be "localhost!"  The request is being sent from a remote server so it has no idea what localhost would be thus it fails.  If I deploy my project to a remote server and pass the URL, it will likely work.  I will try that...


Package Height: 2.52" Package Height: 3.3"
Package Length: 10.31" Package Length: 17.9"
Package Width: 7.48" Package Width: 11.6"
Package Weight: 0.62 lbs. Package Weight: 2.9 lbs.
Comparison results for Lego Atlantis 8059 Seabed Scavenger and Sluban Railway Station Atlantis 235 Pieces Lego Compatible. What is best?


This 5-star design hotel offers a 40-metre outdoor pool, award-winning food, and spacious rooms with panoramic windows. It is in the modern Volkswagen Autostadt district of Wolfsburg. The air-conditioned rooms of the Ritz-Carlton, Wolfsburg offer views of the Autostadt district or the harbour basin. The hotel also houses more than 600 photographic artworks. The Aqua restaurant has been awarded 3 Michelin stars for its modern European cuisine. Surprisingly natural dishes with local and organic ingredients are served at restaurant Terra, open for lunch and dinner. A wide..
This hotel in the centre of Wolfsburg offers large rooms, international cuisine and an indoor pool with sauna. It is a 2-minute walk from Wolfsburg's shops and Art Museum. The air-conditioned rooms at the Leonardo Hotel Wolfsburg City Center are 31 m² in size. They include a large bathroom and work area. A la carte menu options for lunch and dinner options are available at the Open Lobby Bar. The Leonardo Hotel Wolfsburg City Centre is also within a 10-minute walk of Wolfsburg Planetarium and Theater Wolfsburg. The Autostadt car museum is a 10-minute drive..
This hotel is set opposite Wolfsburg's romantic Wasserburg Neuhaus castle. It has non-smoking rooms, a spacious spa area and daily breakfast buffets. The Best Western Premier Hotel An der Wasserburg has spacious rooms with scenic views. All rooms have a modern multi-media platform with a 27-inch iMac computer and a 42-inch flat-screen TV. The Best Western Premier Hotel An der Wasserburg's spa includes a pool with wave system, different saunas and a big fitness room. Different beauty and physiotherapy treatments are available here. Facilities at the Best Western..
Situated near the main railway station, this hotel in Wolfsburg offers you modern and welcoming facilities. The hotel also benefits from excellent links to the A2 and A39 motorways. The 4-star Tryp Wolfsburg offers tastefully furnished, functional accommodation with all modern amenities. Up to 100 MB is provided free of charge in all room categories, and one category offers unlimited WiFi. For your relaxation, the Tryp Wolfsburg hotel offers a sauna and solarium. Start your day with a rich breakfast buffet featuring hot and cold dishes. Light cuisine is available in..
This non-smoking hotel is situated in the Vorsfelde district of Wolfsburg, just 4 km from the city centre. It offers comfortable rooms with free WiFi and a free breakfast buffet each morning. All rooms at the 3-star Hotel Restaurant Conni include a private bathroom. The Hotel Conni's restaurant offers German and regional food. In warmer months, a wide range of drinks are served in the traditional beer garden. Guests are welcome to use the Hotel Restaurant Conni's on-site skittle alleys. The Volkswagen plant is just 4 km away from the Hotel Restaurant..
This 4-star hotel boasts a hearty breakfast buffet each morning, Wi-Fi internet and parking at no extra cost, within the peaceful setting of Wolfsburg's green Steimker Berg district. The Parkhotel Wolfsburg offers spacious rooms that are individually furnished. After a quiet night's sleep, let the hearty breakfast buffet tempt you out of bed. Here, you can choose exactly how you would like your eggs prepared. The breakfast is included in your room price. In the evening, visit the Parkhotel's restaurant for regional and seasonal cuisine. Dine in the conservatory or..


text:
Q: read a file created with fopen php function I've a problem reading a file created with fopen function, file exsist on the server but can't be accessed and I don't know why, if I download it via ftp it exsist, but I can't acces it from php this is the code for file creation:
if (!(file_exists("./media/mod_xml/ $rssname "))) {
$myfile = fopen("./media/mod_xml/ $rssname ", "w+b") or die("Unable to open file!");
$txt = '<rss version="2.0" xmlns:jwplayer="http://rss.jwpcdn.com/">
';
$txt .='<channel>
';
foreach ($xml->video as $video) {
    $txt .='<item>
    ';
    $txt .='<title>'.$xml->video->titolo.'</title>
    ';
    $txt .='<description>'.$xml->video->descrizione.'</description>
    ';
    $txt .='<jwplayer:image>'.$xml->video->preview.'</jwplayer:image>
    ';
    $txt .='<jwplayer:source file="'.$xml->video->video.'" />
    ';
    $txt .='</item>
    ';
}
$txt .='</channel>
';
$txt .='</rss>
';
fwrite($myfile, $txt);
fclose($myfile);
}

this is the code that's trying to read the file:
<script type="text/javascript">
    jwplayer("jwplayer<?php echo $xml->video->id;?>").setup({
        playlist: "http://www.example.com/media/mod_xml/<?php echo $xml->video->id;?>.rss",
        width: <?php echo $params->get('vwidth', ''); ?>,
        height: <?php echo $params->get('vheight', ''); ?>
    });
</script>

where "mysite.com" is the URL of the site where rss file is located. If I open media/mod_xml/ folder, files are there, and are well formatted, but for some strange reason php doesn't read them.
If I try to point browser to files I get a 404 Not Found error, telling me
The requested URL /media/mod_xml/399.rss was not found on this server.
but the file are there, anyone can help? tnks in advace :)
EDIT:
I load a php file on another server/domain and "convert" it to standard rss for passing it to jwplayer, file is read well and "converted" well:
$xmlurl = $params->get('xmlurl', '');
$xml = simplexml_load_file($xmlurl);
$rssname = $xml->video->id;
$rssname .=".rss";

A: I solved the Issue. Problem was that files were created but they seem to not be propers RSS files,
I edited the code, and used this code to name file and upload folder:
$xmlurl = $params->get('xmlurl', '');
$xml = simplexml_load_file($xmlurl);
$rssname = $xml->video->id;
$rssname .=".rss";
$upload_dir = "./media/mod_xml/";
if (!(file_exists($upload_dir.$rssname))) {
$myfile = fopen($upload_dir.$rssname, "w") or die("Unable to open file!");
...}

now files are created as Propers RSS files, and jwPlayer Works Like a charm, tnks anyway...


Here's another #tbt (Throwback Thursday) post. It's an outfit I just wore last week, but the picture was taken last fall. Sometimes my posts-to-pictures ratio gets out of whack and I find myself with a surplus. And since this I still a look I like, I'm sharing it today.
I got this tunic when I was in New York last year. It's by ecoSkin, a "green" clothing company from California that uses environmentally friendly fabrics and strives to be earth-conscious and minimize their carbon footprint. I've seen people wear this as a top, but I think they might have been shorter than me. For me, this is the perfect tunic, so I paired it with black leggings and tall boots.
My boots are half pleather and half neoprene (scuba material) so they have a nice, snug fit without being tight. I'm always on the lookout for great vegan shoes and boots–surprisingly, there are lots (just look into my shoes closet and you'll see).
I won–yes won–this amazing Susan Nicole bag at last year's Walk for Farm Animals. Of all the raffle items, this was my favorite and as luck would have it, I won! Susan Nicole makes an amazing line of vegan leather, eco-conscious handbags.
I do love the comfort of leggings and the look of boots, even though I'm not one of the people who can't wait for fall. I mourn the end of summer each year. But fall is a good time to start plotting a winter getaway!
Great outfit. Perfect colours for Autumn. Although I don't see too many Fall colours in the trees. I guess that's one of the benefits of living near the coast.
Since getting my first pair of tall riding boots I'm really digging this look.
The leaves have just started to turn colors. However, they don't call Washington the Evergreen State for nothing! A lot of plants (rhodies, camellia, ferns, and of course pines) stay green all year long!
I'm glad you bought a pair of riding boots. They're so fun!
Thanks Geoff! Such double standards. I think everybody should be able to wear riding boots. A few men do, but they have to be brave about it because it's not "the norm." Such a classic style. I wish more men (outside the riding circuit) would wear them.
I love the ecoskin tunic.Leggings and tunics are always a big favourite for me.
That is a really nice size bag! Congrats to you for winning! I'm the same way about summer – I try to hold off on fall clothes for as long as possible!
Love this outfit! That tunic is perfect with leggings and riding boots.


text:
Polling Blog
Shropshire North
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Matt Wilson, Mark Felt,
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Mark Felt, Mark Felt, Trade Mark,
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Trade Mark, Matt Wilson, Lancs Observer,
Old Bexley & Sidcup
sbjme19, Trade Mark,
Trade Mark, Trade Mark,
Boundary Commission (ENG)
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By Elections since 1945
David Boothroyd's Archive
Electoral Calculus
Electoral Commission
Local Authority By-elections
Local Elections Archive
Northern Ireland Elections
Pippa Norris Archive
Richard Kimber's Archive
2015 Result:
Conservative: 25404 (50.1%)
Labour: 11798 (23.2%)
Lib Dem: 2756 (5.4%)
Green: 2193 (4.3%)
UKIP: 8250 (16.3%)
Independent: 288 (0.6%)
Others: 56 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 13606 (26.8%)
Category: Very safe Conservative seat
Geography: North West, Lancashire. The whole of the Ribble Valley council area and part of South Ribble.
Main population centres: Clitheroe, Bamber Bridge, Longridge, Samlesbury, Ribchester, Waddington, Chatburn, Mellor, Farington.
Profile: A large rural seat in Lancashire, centered on the town of Clitheroe and covering the valley of the Ribble river from the border with Yorkshire down to Bamber Bridge, south of Preston. It also includes an expanse of the Forest of Bowland Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (despite the name, this is mostly barren fens and moorland). This is a wealthy seat with low unemployment, little social housing and aside from the town of Clitheroe and the suburbanised village of Bamber Bridge is most pleasant scenic villages for Lancashire's affluent commuters. The area around Bamber Bridge is more socially mixed and more industrial, and includes the large Leyland Truck assembly plant, British Aerospace's Salmesbury facility and the modern InBev brewery at Salmesbury.
Politics: Generally speaking Ribble Valley is a safe Conservative seat, but was famously won by the Liberal Democrats on a huge swing in a 1991 by-election following the elevation of David Waddington to the Lords. The Conservatives regained the seat in 1992 and since then the level of Liberal Democrat support has gradually unwound, with the party falling back into third place in 2010, helped along by unhelpful boundary changes.
Current MP
NIGEL EVANS (Conservative) Born 1957, Swansea. Educated at Dynevor School and Swansea University. Former newsagent. West Glamorgan County councillor 1985-1991. Contested Swansea West 1987, Pontypridd by-election 1989, Ribble Valley by-election 1991. First elected as MP for Ribble Valley in 1992. PPS to David Hunt 1993-1995, PPS to Tony Baldry 1995-1996, PPS to William Hague 1996-1997. Shadow Welsh Secretary 2001-2002. Deputy Speaker 2010-2013. Resigned the Conservative whip and as deputy speaker in 2013 after being charged with rape and sexual assault, he was later acquitted of all charges and had the Tory whip restored.
Con: 26298 (50%)
Lab: 11529 (22%)
LDem: 10732 (21%)
UKIP: 3496 (7%)
Oth: 232 (0%)
MAJ: 14769 (28%)
Lab: 9793 (20%)
MAJ: 6640 (12%)
*There were boundary changes after 2005
NIGEL EVANS (Conservative) See above.
DAVID HINDER (Labour) Born 1954, St Asaph. Educated at Blessed Edward Jones RC High School and Leeds University. Consultant. Contested Altrincham and Sale 1987.
JACKIE PEARCEY (Liberal Democrat) Born 1963. Educated at Leeds Girls High School and Bristol University. Former Manchester councillor. Contested Davyhulme 1992, Manchester Gorton 1997, 2001, Bolton West 2010.
SHIRLEY PARKINSON (UKIP) Born 1966, Chorley.
GRAHAM SOWTER (Green) Ribble Valley councillor 1994-2008 for the Liberal Democrats.
DAVID BRASS (Independent)
GRACE ASTLEY (Independent) Educated at Darwen Vale High School and Royal Holloway. Teacher. Contested Haltemprice and Howden 2008 by-election, Blackburn 2010.
TONY JOHNSON (Independent Political Alliance) Contested Ribble Valley 2010.
Archived 2010 Election Guide Page
Wikipedia Page
Comments - 286 Responses on "Ribble Valley"
Doktorb
Not only can you see the unwind from 1991 onwards, you can spot the boundary changes a mile off too…..
March 10th, 2013 at 10:39 pm
Indeed. The new Ribble Valley reminds me a bit of the old Clitheroe seat. I know the areas covered differ somewhat but the politics seem familiar, i.e. pretty safely Tory in an even year but with Labour in a reasonable second.
Of course Labour's main source of support in this seat is Bamber Bridge, whereas in the Clitheroe seat it will have been places like Padiham and Altham, which were subsequently moved to Burnley and Hyndburn.
In advance of the comments that are likely to be here later, can I remind commenters that people are innocent until proven guilty, and invite them to keep comments that may be libellous off my site…
The Tories performed well in the area covered by the Ribble Valley constituency yesterday. I have them leading Labour by 5612. The Tories carried Ribble Valley NE, Ribble Valley SW and Longridge very comfortably. They carried South Ribble Rural North E by 672 over Labour. They also carried Clitheroe and Farington narrowly. Labour won Bamber Bridge and Walton le Dale, but only by 31 votes over the Conservatives.
In Clitheroe, the Lib Dems came second, in Farington, it was Labour.
Andy JS
This seat is considerably different to the Ribble Valley that existed in 1991 when the LDs won a by-election. It now includes a more urban area to the south of Preston including Bamber Bridge.
That's right- probably quite a good change for the Tories because it snuffs out the Lib Dem threat without giving Labour nearly enough to mount any kind of serious challenge. Labour barely even led in Bamber Bridge this year.
Well Bamber Bridge is fairly strongly Labour – it's Walton-le-Dale which is rather less so. The latter can vote Tory quite often & probably did on Thursday. I first heard of it since it was where the celebrated 20th century contralto, Kathleen Ferrier, came from. I wonder if anyone more famous than her has come from this constituency as it's now drawn?
David Waddington was quite famous for a short time when he was dealing with various miscarriages of justice in about 1990.
If there is a by-election do people think Labour could squeak in by squeezing the Lib Dem vote and UKIP taking a chunk of Tory voters? The Labour vote has held up well from 1997 although there were boundary changes. I can see this happening if UKIP got a quarter of the vote!
Big D- no I don't. The Labour vote holding up is partly a result of post-1991 tactical unwind and partly a result of significant boundary changes. There is no long-term trend to Labour in this seat. And look at the local elections we've just had. I have Labour on 23% in this constituency, barely up at all on what they managed in 2010. They couldn't even carry Farington (which they won by 11% in 2005) and only won Bamber Bridge and Walton le Dale by just 31 votes (having carried it by 11% in 2005). And they are miles behind in the rest of the seat.
And note that the Lib Dem vote was already squeezed down to 8% yesterday (though to be fair, they did not stand in Bamber Bridge or South Ribble Rural E). So where are Labour's votes coming from to get them to about 30% plus?
Pete Whitehead
No I don't think thats likely at all actually, given that in the most recent by-elections in places as different as Eastleigh and South Shields Labour's vote share has either stood still or declined slightly. I think if there were a by-election at the present time then actually UKIP would have a very good chance of winning it, but I have no reason to believe a by-election is likely
Anthony, now that I've got your undivided attention I'll repeat the request I made on the Stone thread…
**** REQUEST TO ANTHONY WELLS ****
Anthony, can you please set up a simple "predictions" page on this part of the site?
We could then each make a dated prediction of the national share of vote at the next General Election.
[Then, after 2015, we could look back at how far out some of us were at predicting UKIP gains and a Labour overall majority].
The obvious lesson from the results is that David Cameron is on course for victory in 2015. It might not be an outright victory, but who on earth would bet against him having a plurality of votes given that the Tories were only 4% behind Labour in the BBC's 'Projected National Share of the Vote' in these local elections?
I'm standing by the prediction I made several months ago:
Tories 40%
Labour 34%
Lib Dems 16%
Or perhaps I might tweak it a little to reflect the fruitcake surge (which I now think will fall back to 5%, rather than 3% by 2015)…
Robin – I think every now and again I used to do it as a thread on the main blog before the last election. Should probable get round to doing the same at some point this time.
The biggest Tory nightmare is not UKIP picking up seats but them taking a chunk of Tory voters and letting Labour in through the back door. If UKIP pick up 15-20 seats at least the Tories could do a deal with them (without Cameron as leader). They can't do a deal with Labour!
@ Anthony Wells
Thanks. I think it might be useful sooner rather than later – and as a permanent feature of this part of the site (rather than 'every now and again') so it can be easily referred back to – because perhaps then people will learn not to be carried away by mid-term trends. There's really no point putting it on the front page where it will get quickly lost and forgotten.
I remember reading this site four or five years ago and there were contributors who insisted that Labour couldn't possibly rise higher than 26% in the General Election simply because the polls were only giving the party 25% at that particular time (they did, of course, manage 30% – which was an entirely predictable recovery given the lessons of historical precedent).
@ BigD
Sorry but you're completely missing the lesson of last Thursday. Ukip DID pick up a big chunk of the vote but that didn't stop the Tories from being only 4% behind Labour on the 'Projected National Share'. That would only have given Ed Miliband a slender Commons majority, rather than the 90-seat margin implied by Anthony's front page projection, and of course there is the traditional pro-government 'bounce back' yet to come. Why is everyone missing the lesson of last Thursday's elections? Ukip, even on 25%, are not going to win a solitary parliamentary seat whereas the Tories are already closing strongly on Labour and with two years still to go! In which years of previous Tory governments did Labour register this sort of slender lead in mid-term local elections? 1980, 1981, 1985, 1986, 1988 and 1989 – all of which preceded Conservative general election victories.
The lessons of precedent are out there for those who will listen.
"Ukip, even on 25%, are not going to win a solitary parliamentary seat "
That is nonsense. NOt that I think it all that likely to happen, but for UKIP to be on 25% nationally, given how low their support is in Scotland, most of London and some of the other larger cities (and would be somewhat lower in Wales as well I should think) we would be looking at probably ine xcess of 30% in non-Metroplitan England. There is no way that would be spread so thinly as to deliver no seats as there are clearly areas of particular strength, notably in parts of Lincolnshire, Kent, East Anglia and Sussex and in the South West
@ Robin Hood – last Thursday only 1/3 of registered voters voted not 2/3 you'd expect at a General Election. With a strong UKIP performance it is even less of a prediction of the next General Election. I don't think UKIP will get 25% at the GE I'd expect them to get 10% and most of these to be ex-Tory voters. That could mean Labour winning a lot of seats by gaining former Lib Dem voters and the Tories losing about 7% of the electorate to UKIP. My GE prediction is: Labour 38, Conservative 30, Lib Dem 15 and UKIP 10.
I think Robin Hood has a point re. Labour's relatively poor performance last week. Something else that was notable was that the Lib Dem spin that UKIP's rise would mean gains for the Lib Dems in the SW & elsewhere proved largely inaccurate.
James E
@ Pete Whitehead
"…for UKIP to be on 25% nationally, given how low their support is in Scotland, most of London and some of the other larger cities (and would be somewhat lower in Wales as well I should think) we would be looking at probably in excess of 30% in non-Metroplitan England. There is no way that would be spread so thinly as to deliver no seats as there are clearly areas of particular strength, notably in parts of Lincolnshire, Kent, East Anglia and Sussex and in the South West"
Fully agree with your analysis of UKIP's areas of strength and weakness.
Surely this is relevant too in interpreting last Thursday's local election results? As I understand it, the BBC, in their national Equivalent Vote figures, have projected the movement seen in the English County Council Elections onto those parts of the UK which didn't vote – i.e. Scotland, Wales, London, and Metropolitan England. This put UKIP quite close to 25% 'Nationally'.
The reality surely is that the English County Council elections includes all of UKIP's most promising areas, and excluded all those where they would be likely to fare least well.
Yes, Rallings & Thrasher clearly made a mistake in predicting UKIP on 11% and then just a few days later they get 22%.
I think they're making yet another mistake in projecting 22% and no seats for UKIP, as Pete says.
Absolutely. I don't know what the total UKIP share was in the areas that actually voted (and it wouldn't be a full reflection of support in those areas, as they didn't contest every seat) but 25% sounds more like what we would have won just in those areas than in the UK as a whole
Is it a coincidence that your prediction for Tory and Labour is almost exactly the same as that shown in this site's current rolling average of polls? Surely the purpose of making a prediction is that you allow for the likely changes in party strength which you expect to emerge between now and 2015?
Please remember the Projected National Share of vote last Thursday: Con 25%; Lab 29%: Lib Dem 14%: UKIP 23%. Your prediction assumes that Labour will be the main beneficiary of a fall in UKIP support. How on earth do you arrive at the conclusion?
I repeat what I said earlier: David Cameron doesn't need to change course at all. He is heading for re-election (unless some major unforeseen event is lurking around the corner).
@ James E
You are correct, it was UKIP's most promising areas that voted on Thursday and their Projected National Share of vote was 23%. On the basis of the standard Percentage Change Hypothesis this is not going to net them a solitary parliamentary seat (because it means they will only increase their vote share by twenty percentage points in each constituency). Perhaps Pete can name us the parliamentary seat they would capture on the basis of a 23% – or even a 25% – share?
I'm doing a spreadsheet for actual votes cast in the local elections so we can see what UKIP actually got. Because there's no way they would only drop from 25% to 22% when you compare county councils with the country as a whole. To be on 22% nationally they'd have to be on at least 30% in the areas that voted on Thursday IMO.
@ Andy JS
I think you'll find that the BBC statisticians are assuming that the Percentage Change Hypothesis applies. In other words, they have assessed how the areas which voted last Thursday voted in the 2010 general election and have established that the UKIP base in those areas was only 2% higher than nationally. (In other words, UKIP polled 3% nationally in 2010 but around 5% in the Shire Counties, meaning only a 2% differential – hence a 25% actual vote in the locals translates into a 23% PNS).
Logically the BBC methodology makes sense, though whether it's accurate is another matter.
"On the basis of the standard Percentage Change Hypothesis this is not going to net them a solitary parliamentary seat (because it means they will only increase their vote share by twenty percentage points in each constituency). Perhaps Pete can name us the parliamentary seat they would capture on the basis of a 23% – or even a 25% – share?"
But this doesn't happen. They aren't going to increase their share by 20% in Hornsey & Wood Green or East Ham, or Glasgow Central. You only have to look at European election results to see where UKIP strength lies when they get a substantial proportion of the vote and other areas where their support remains fairly derisory, including swatehs of inner-London. It isn;t going to go up by 20% in every seat – it will go up by less than 10% in some. Therefore to balance those areas it would have to go up by 30% or more in others which would bring some seats in range. I can name numerous seats which would be plausible UKIP gains in the (unlikely) event that the party were polling 20-25% nationally: Boston & Skegness, Great Yarmouth, Great Grimsby, Clacton, Castle Point, Thanet North, Folkestone & Hythe, Worthing East & Shoreham, Bognor Regis & Littlehampton, NW Cambridgeshire, Torbay. You talk alot of sense in the way you interpret mid-term opinion polls, but you won't have much credibility if you seriously contenfd that a 20% increase in support for UKIP nationally would be reflected uniformly in every constituency in the country
@ Pete
I agree with you that the rise in UKIP support would not be uniform. Perhaps in some constituencies a proportional (rather than a percentage change) rise would be more accurate, though I'm not really convinced. I think it's unlikely they would buck the trend to such an extent of actually adding "30% or more" (your words) in many seats if they're only increasing by 20% nationwide.
I continue to hold the view that they would not actually win any seats with a 25% overall share: their take-off point would, I think, be higher. Their problem is similar to that faced by the SDP in the 1980s, but if anything is worse because at least the Social Democrats actually had the advantage of having incumbent MPs in some seats, and in a few cases their personal vote (e.g. Dr Owen in Plymouth Devonport) was enough to hang on.
Those seats where UKIP are likely to be at their strongest are often constituencies which have substantial Tory majorities: in such instances where the non-UKIP vote is concentrated in the hands of the Tories a huge UKIP vote will be required to win.
Conversely you could argue that UKIP would therefore stand a better chance in those seats where the non-UKIP vote is split evenly between Tory and Labour, on the grounds that UKIP would necessarily require a smaller share of the vote to come through the middle and win. The problem with this scenario is that such seats tend to have a 2-party hegemony which result in third or forth parties being squeezed out of the race. (I know this from my own bitter experience in the SDP in the 1980s: I specifically targeted a Tory/Labour marginal ward in the north of the Croydon borough for a 3-year community politics campaign leading up to the 1986 locals. My theory was that we could win with as little as 34% of the vote (because the non-SDP vote would be split evenly) but what I didn't allow for was the low SDP base and the historically strong Labour and particularly Tory organisation in the ward: they both used the 'wasted vote' argument relentlessly and whilst the SDP vote did rise from 16% to 25% we really didn't get within spitting distance.
Meanwhile, in the South of the borough (in both Coulsdon East and Croham) where the tactical vote squeeze was on Labour we polled appreciably better – around 40% – but this, too, was not enough, because over 80% of the non-SDP vote went to the Tories.
It's a cruel world trying to break through in a 2-party system when you're a third or fourth force, Pete. But let's take a look at each of the seats you highlight…
Boston & Skegness – the Tories got around half the vote last time (and a 29% lead over their nearest challenger). True, UKIP polled 9% but I reckon they'd need to be pushing 40% to take this one. That's a tough order on only 25% nationally.
Great Yarmouth – this Tory-held seat's marginality would probably mean UKIP could win here with as little as 30% of the vote but it's because of that marginality that they would be unlikely to poll so well. After all, it has been Labour in the recent past (and is presumably a Labour target) so the kippers would be in a squeeze situation.
Great Grimsby – UKIP polled 6% here in 2010 but it's a tight Labour-held marginal would could conceivably go Tory if the Conservatives recover before 2015 and I doubt electors would risk wasting their vote here.
Clacton – UKIP didn't even stand here last time, and the Tories have an overall majority of the vote. Can't see this being a UKIP gain with only 25% nationally.
Castle Point – a pretty solid Tory majority in 2010, not sure how UKIP would challenge here from what is a standing start.
Thanet North – a 6.5% UKIP share but with a solidly right wing incumbent Tory MP who commanded an overall majority of votes last time, I can't see this one falling.
Folkestone & Hythe – a 5% UKIP vote but with the Tories on nearly 50% I can't see it happening for the kippers here either.
Worthing East & Shoreham – a credible 6% UKIP vote but again the non-UKIP vote is concentrated fairly heavily in the Tory column meaning a pretty high threshold for a UKIP breakthrough.
Bognor Regis & Littlehampton – UKIP on 6% and the Tories with an overall majority of votes cast last time. See above.
NW Cambridgeshire – UKIP had 8% here but again the Tories had an overall majority at the last time of asking so they would be difficult to topple.
Torbay – You're kidding aren't you? This is a classic Lib Dem/Tory marginal, and much of its electorate will be fully aware of that fact.
I realise that regardless of previous voting figures there are some parts of the country which are more culturally conservative than others, but I can't really see the skew happening enough in any of these seats – with the possible exception of Boston & Skegness – for UKIP to break through against the background of a national 25% vote share.
Although on the other hand Torbay is a seat where you could get each of Con, LD and UKIP on about 28% with Labour on around 15%.
I'm not sure that it does actually. If UKIP have increased by say 19 percentage points in the shire counties it doesn't follow that UKIP would also increase by 19 percentage points in London, Scotland and Wales IMO.
I think Robin Hood is looking at this the wrong way around. How can UKIP realistically get to 25% of the vote nationaly? Given there are regions where we agree they are weak and will get much less than that (eg London and Scotland) it follows that they will have a higher share in other regions – say nearer 30% in somewhere like the East Midlands. Now if UKIP are getting 30% in the East Midlands again it is not going to be uniform. They are not goign to get much more than 10% in the Leicester seats for example. It therefore follows again that they must be getting more than 30% in some other seats, logically those in Lincolnshire where they performed strongly last week. All you say about the likelihood of UKIPw inning in the indivisual seats mentioned is true as far as it goes. BUt if UKIP were not achieveing well in excess of 30 or 35% in seats like that, then they would not be getting anywhere near 25% of the vote nationally
Why not look at it another way: did UKIP actually win any parliamentary seats last Thursday (on the basis of adding up the aggregate votes cast in the wards which make up each parliamentary constituency?). Admittedly these figures would not reflect the likely tactical factors that would be operative had it been real parliamentary elections, but it might give us a guide nonetheless.
"did UKIP actually win any parliamentary seats last Thursday (on the basis of adding up the aggregate votes cast in the wards which make up each parliamentary constituency?)"
Yes they did. I posted the figures for Aylesbury on the relevant thread which is one that they did. Most of those which I mentioned and which ahd elections did. I haven't aggregated the votes in all that many areas yet so I will return with a full list when I have. You can add Sittingbourne & Sheppey to the list. Thanet North is a cert as UKIP won all but a couple of seats within the constituency and Thanet South is probable too
Boston & Skegness
And of course the Liberals have won seats with national vote shares well below 25%. The key to this is whether UKIP can build on their recent rise in support and entrench it sufficiently to win parliamentary seats.
This isn't a given – they 'carried' various seats in the euro elections in the past but this didn't translate into a similar level of support at subsequent Westminster elections.
Thanks for that information – I genuinely wasn't aware that UKIP had won the aggregate vote in any constituencies last Thursday and am slightly perplexed as to why I did not hear about this on any of the television news media.
Even so, in a General Election situation, where there are tactical considerations (of the kind I specified in my list above) to be factored into the equation it might be a different situation. For example, I remember in the 1989 West London Euro parliamentary seat how well Labour's Michael Elliott did in the then Richmond & Barnes area, only for Labour's vote there to be squeezed right down when the usual 2-party hegemony reasserted itself at the subsequent (1992) general election.
Nonetheless, if what you say is true then perhaps UKIP would make a few parliamentary gains on the basis of a 25% share, although I suspect we'll never know.
Merseymike
I am very suspicious about the projected 29% for labour in any case. I think it is very difficult to predict when such entirely different seats are being considered – and these turnouts make it even more difficult.
Undoubtedly UKIP will take more votes from Tory than Labour and most of the seats in which they challenge most strongly are Tory-held.
Thus, the idea that the Tories will just sail back into power is bizarre indeed.
If the Greens can target one seat and win it, there is no reason why UKIP shouldn't do the same in a few they challenge in.
Whether Labour gain an outright majority or not is another matter, but frankly it doesn't really matter if they fall behind in Lincolnshire, where there is only one seat they are likely to win.
The unitaries and mets appear to be much better for Labour in any case: indeed, the South Shields result was fine – its a mega safe seat, the ConDem vote nearly disappeared, and the MP scarpered to earn a fast buck in the states rather than died.
Labour did pretty well in terms of targetting their best seats and as we all know, local elections can only tell you so much. I certainly don't think there is much to suggest from these results that Cameron will be raising his tally of seats whereas Labour certainly will. Remember – UKIP did not win a single seat FROM Labour.
Also – Labour's share of the poll isn't evenly distributed either. So, Labour may do badly in Cambridgeshire, but they can win Cambridge. We may not have done as well in Great Yarmouth as we had hoped because of UKIP but we still got half the county council wards – and we are well ahead of the Tories, so to say we couldn't win the seat in 2015 is overly pessimistic. And we will win the Norwich seats, I am sure. There aren't any other seats in Norfolk we are either likely to win or need to win
Mersey Mike- I agree with you that Labour is doing well in the unitaries and the mets. I also believe that Labour will be the largest party in 2015. Nevertheless, if Labour want to win a workable overall majority, they are going to have to win a fair amount of marginals in small town England. And on the basis of last week's results, I don't see that happening. Leads of just 3% in places like Crawley at this stage in the Parliament are really nothing to write home about.
I think even on the share of votes suggested they would have a small majority of between 4 and 10, but certainly to get a majority of say, 30-40, they would need to win some smaller towns. The issue of where the LD vote goes and how much UKIP can hold on to the protest votes will be important. Its just too early to say. The usual rules don't apply after the coalition, either.
I don't think a majority of more than 40 is at all likely – for anyone. That is a good thing. Large majorities often make for either unresponsive or timid government as there is the tendency to be come complacent or fearful of the loss of seats which should have never been won in the first place!
@ Robin Hood – I don't look at the averages on the front page as different polling companies have different methodology and are measuring different things. For example ICM by reallocating 50% of don't knows to the party they voted for last time are trying to predict what would happen at a future election whereas YouGov are measuring how people would vote today if there was a general election by not reallocating don't knows at all. My prediction is just a hunch based on previous election results. I'm not predicting Labour will be the main beneficiaries of a fall in UKIP support. I'm going on the General Election result. Polling shows 50% of UKIP support is former Tory voters with the other 50% made up of Labour, Lib Dem and non-voters so obviously they hurt the Tories the most. Also we have to calm down about a local election result in the shires. Firstly people vote differently in local to GE. Second only 1/3 of people in these areas voted. At least 2/3 will vote in GE (these areas have higher turnout than inner city areas that didn't vote last Thursday). Thirdly people are voting on the basis of wild tabloid predictions about Romanian and Bulgarian immigration. When that doesn't happen on the scale predicted the Europe issue will fall down the agenda (not completely but to a large extent). Indeed it still isn't that high on people's concerns when asked in polls. Of course UKIP is wise to link it to immigration given how high up voters concerns this is.
So my prediction of Labour 38, Conservative 30, Lib Dem 15 and UKIP 10 is based on Tories losing votes to UKIP, Labour picking up former Lib Dem voters but not going up 10% on GE score as they lose some to UKIP and Lib Dems losing the vast majority of their former voters to Labour.
H.Hemmelig
Surprised this thread has gone so quiet.
There is at least as high chance of a by-election here as in Newark.
Despite all the public messages of support, nobody who knows Westminster from the inside is very surprised by the allegations against Nigel Evans.
A fourth alleged victim has now made a complaint.
Maybe this will be UKIP's first seat. After all it has a history of kicking the Tories in by-elections.
June 2nd, 2013 at 10:24 am
If a by-election did happen (for whatever reason) between now and 2015, it would be interesting. Some have suggested Labour could win but I personally don't buy that. The areas which joined the seat before 2010 are not overwhelmingly Labour and the 2013 local elections saw barely any improvement in the Labour vote from 2010. So it would probably be a Tory-UKIP fight. In those circumstances, perhaps the Tories should do what the Lib Dems did in Eastleigh and field an unpretentious local councillor (if one was willing) to get out the core vote.
June 2nd, 2013 at 12:21 pm
joe james b
Surely farrage won't stand though as he'll be on the doleat the general election. Maybe better if he shows comsistency on where he stands. The obvious choicwe is to get rid of that odious speaker unless tories decide to break convention and stand whichb I wpouldn't blame them for. Sorry for yhe spely mistakes, I'm on my mobile after the dribks in the sun. I'm sutre farrage wouldnkt really be on the dole if he lost his seat.
June 2nd, 2013 at 2:43 pm
Not that the speaker is literally odious of course. Satire.
Anthony, please remove these two illiterate posts above of mine. Apologoies. Joe
Joe R
Thats some pretty bad spelling for before 3 in the afternoon JJB.
sun rises early over the yardarm for the Twickenham Conservative Association 🙂
Many years ago a friend of mine who is still a Tory councillor told me a quite disturbing story about Nigel Evans (although I should say that the story did not allege anything illegal).
At the time of the section 28 repeal debate in 2000, a group of gay rights activists posted several pages of very colourful allegations about Nigel Evans' private life on a website which was swiftly taken down by legal threats after a couple of days.
Therefore although we don't know whether he is guilty of what is being alleged, things such as the above which have swirled around Westminster for years do leave him very vulnerable as they may well be dug up during any trial and could fatally damage his political career even if he is found innocent of these charges.
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I decided to make a functional, life-size, flat-pack chair using a laser cutter. As laser cutting and materials are expensive and the process can be time-consuming I wanted to make a small-scale model first in order to make sure that there is minimal wastage.
I started by making sketches of possible designs. While designing the chair I had to keep in mind the size limitations of the pieces as the laser cutter I would be using can only cut material up to 2" x 3". Once I chose the sketch that I would use for my final design I took a quick photo of the sketch so that I could trace it in Adobe Illustrator.
I opened up the design in Adobe Illustrator by opening up a new print document and choosing File>Place. I made this a "Template" by double-clicking on the layer and ticking the Template box. This makes the layer slightly transparent so that it acts more as a guide. Next I used the pen tool to recreate my sketch on Illustrator. With the help of this I developed the various pieces of the design that layer together to create the chair. The stroke size of the pen tool has to be 0.001 inches and the color has to be RGB black in order for the laser cutter to make the appropriate cut. I laid out the various pieces of the chair next to each other on a document. Also I had to make little circles on the pieces for where the wire would go through so that the laser cutter would cut a hole there. These have to line up for the chair to be able to be put together. I also made little donut-shaped pieces that have the same hole-size and were the same diameter as the pieces of the chair so that these would go in between the larger pieces to create the slotted wood aesthetic.
I arranged the images of the various pieces of the chair on a document so that they were as close to each other as possible so that there wouldn't be excess wastage of the materials. I also had to make sure that the proper number of each piece was on the document, but I wasn't sure exactly how the chair would turn out as this is just a model so I put extra pieces in my document. But if I were to create this full size I would have to count the specific amount of each piece so that I wouldn't be wasting materials and tooling time.
I saved the Illustrator file as a .pdf and submitted it to be cut on the laser cutting machine. The wood was put in place inside the machine and it was started up. The laser cutter cut my pieces out within about 20 minutes.
This resulted in lots of little pieces of the chair that had black charred edges from the laser. Then I just had to put all the pieces together. I used wire to do so.
First, I bent the end of the piece of wire with small pliers so that the piece wouldn't fall off the end of the wire and so that I would not poke myself. Between each large piece of the chair I put one of the donut shaped pieces that I cut out so that it would create slots.
The pieces of the chair could be arranged in numerous ways but I decided to use the pieces with arm rests at the sides (x2) with the donuts in between the arm rest pieces at every point except the bottom one where you can see I put the base. After that I used the donuts in between and then the piece that has the seat and base support (which is pictured in step 5). Then I used the donuts and the base pieces on the bottom and used 4 pieces that just have the back rest and seat with donuts in between. Once the wire reached the other end and my chair was put together I just bent the end of the wire.
From making the model I've realized that the 4 base pieces need to be attached with another piece of wood the the back of the chair somehow because it will clearly tip over otherwise. Also the chair appears to be very wide so I would change the side pieces slightly. This model helped though to realize my design so that the full scale chair will be appropriate and safe.


American roots rockers Alabama Shakes will release their sophomore album Sound & Color on April 21st through ATO Records. In anticipation, the record is streaming in full via NPR.org.
Pre-orders are ongoing. Below, watch the band perform their new single "Future People" at Coachella this past weekend.


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They're Back! - Pocket Guides >
A Guide to the Pocket Guide
Here's a small sample from the Maritimes guide that illustrates some of the features and how to interpret them.
1 -Dorsal and Ventral views:
Markings on both upper and lower wing surfaces ( shown on the left and right respectively for this sample panel ) can be helpful for identification. In most cases, the view that is most useful for identifying a species is placed on the far left of the panel in question. Note that some butterflies almost never show their upper wing surfaces. In these cases, only the ventral (lower side) view is provided.
2 -English common name, Scientific name (in italics), and French common name
Please note that some species have several common names, and Scientific names can change as taxonomists revise species classifications. The names used in the guide have been chosen to align with provincial checklists ( see references ).
3 -Regional, Size and Status Codes:
The following abbreviations are used for the 4 regions covered by this guide:
NB - New Brunswick
NS - Nova Scotia ( mainland )
CB - Cape Breton Island
PEI - Prince Edward Island
For each species, these regional codes will appear in one of 3 colours indicating how often the species in question has been reported in that region:
GREY = species never reported in the Region ( in 2nd edition, background is white )
GOLD = species rarely or infrequently reported in the Region
GREEN = species frequently reported in the Region
The blue text specifies one of 5 size codes:
VS - Very Small
S - Small
M - Medium
L - Large
VL - Very Large
The corresponding size ranges are provided in the legend. These indicators are based on measurements of typical specimens, but please note that some species can vary considerably in size.
The red text indicates the species status :
C - Common
U - Uncommon
R - Rare
L - Local
M - Migrant
V - Vagrant
N,S,E,W
These codes are explained below:
Common - Relatively easy to find in suitable habitat during the flight season indicated
Uncommon - Somewhat harder to find, even during the peak of its flight season
Rare - Seldom seen, even in ideal habitat during the peak of its flight season
Local - the species in question is usually confined to some kind of specialized habitat (eg. bogs, salt-marshes, etc.), or seldom strays far from its larval foodplant. You may never see it unless you visit the right habitat.
Migrant - the species in question does not normally overwinter in the province, but flies North from more southerly areas. While species like the Question Mark are regular migrants, others are only reported occasionally ( and are therefore designated as vagrants ). Even regular migrants can vary in abundance from year to year.
Vagrant - occasionally strays into the region
N,S,E,W - the species in question is more commonly found in the corresponding part of the Region. Note that some species designated with " N " may be found at higher elevations in more southerly locations.
Note that these status codes are intended as rough guides. Certain rare species can appear to be relatively common during a good year if you happen to find yourself in just the right habitat during the peak of their flight season. On the other hand, species that are normally common might be tough to locate during a bad year. The codes are intended to reflect average abundance.
4 -Separate images of Male vs Female
There is little difference in appearance between males and females of some species. In other species, sexual dimorphism can be significant. Where there is a noticeable difference, images of both sexes are provided ( as indicated by the symbols ♂ for male and ♀ for female ).
In addition, there are a few species that have seasonal forms. Separate images are provided where appropriate.
5 -Flight Season Chart
These charts give a rough indication of the time of year during which you can expect to find each species. Green indicates the period during which they have been most frequently reported. Yellow indicates the period during which there have been fewer reports. Note that some species have very brief flight periods, which can last only a week or two. The timing of this peak flight period can vary from year to year ( depending on weather conditions ), and from place to place ( typically earlier in more Southerly locations ). Conditions at higher elevations may be similar to those at more Northerly locations. The result is that when combining reports of sightings over many years and across the Maritimes, the peak flight period of a species may appear much longer than it will ever be in any particular place and in any particular season.


Summer cocktails are the most refreshing juices in the hot season. Cocktails evoke the tropics and brighten up our mood. In the hot summer days, there's nothing better than to cool off with a refreshing drink, and cocktails are the most delicious beverages you can pamper yourself with. Check out the top 3 best summer cocktails and surprise your guests with a gorgeous, cool mixed drink.
Cocktails are exciting and extremely versatile beverages, which are simply indispensable for a perfect summer afternoon with your friends. There are hundreds of different cocktails recipes you can choose from depending on whether you prefer alcoholic or non-alcoholic drinks and the ingredients you would like to savor. Generally cocktails contain some basic in ingredients such as liquor, ice, soda, fruit juice, sugar and many other mixers that finally create a fantastic combination of flavors. Here are some of the most popular summer cocktail recipes!
Wash the lime, cut it into pieces and place it in a cocktail shaker. Mash up the lime with sugar and sugar syrup. Crush it just a little bit until the lemon releases juice or else it will get a bitter flavor. Add the Cachaça and a scoop of ice and shake well. Stir the drink into a chilled cocktail glass and serve it garnished with mint. Caipirinha, as a traditional Brazilian drink is one of the most popular summer cocktails in both in Europe ant the U.S. as well.
Half-fill the shaker with ice, blue Curacao liqueur, Bombay Sapphire gin, peach schnapps, limejuice and sugar and then shake it well for about half a minute. Pour in the drink into a chilled Martini glass and decorate with lemon zest. This tempting, bright blue cocktail will surely be your favorite this summer.
Half-fill the shaker with ice cubes and pour all the ingredients into it. Shake it well and then pour it into a hurricane cocktail glass with crushed ice. Float with rum and garnish with strawberry, orange slice or mint sprig.
Bahama Mama is a gorgeous tropical cocktail, which is one of the most popular cocktails of tourists, being a perfect company for beach parties or evening occasions.


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Parul, a name of inspiration to married adolescent girls
Parul working in her shop conducting mobile servicing
Inherited social, cultural norms and traditional practices in diverse levels like individual, community or organizational which have been reflected as the major features for deteriorating rural women's ultimate empowerment in Bangladesh. Those long traditional based norms and practices basically are the in-depth inequitable practices, concerning men supremacy both at the household and community levels. So as a result, those traditional practices impose substantial obstacles to rural women's participation in the decision making process.
Rupnahar Akter Parul and Hafizul Islam are now married for two years living in the Punchgachi union of Kurigram district. After marriage, her education stopped at 8th grade and she was totally engaged with household chores. Furthermore, her mobility was entirely restricted after few days of marriage and in-laws members indirectly forced her to conceive a baby. Moreover, her voice had no value in the family matter during decision making process.
When Parul thought that her life would be no more meaningful, at that moment CARE's Women & Girls Empowerment Program launched IMAGINE project with its field activities in two unions of Kurigram Sadar upazilla. Initially community people didn't take IMAGINE activities so positively because itss major focus is to 'Delay First Birth'. But gradually people understood its values when the project initiated its activities: Girls Collective sessions, Couple Counseling, Mother and Mother-in-laws meeting, Husband outdoor cooking competition, Couple night-out movie screening, Social Analysis and Action (SAA) & Family Planning Counseling sessions for Front Line Health Workers transformation. Parul started participating in girls collective sessions and gradually she learnt about her Sexual & Reproductive Health Rights (SRHR) and social rights and performed in all sessions and meetings regularly. As she describes:
"I have always finished my household activities early so that I can join the session conveniently and after attending the sessions with other adolescents, I came to know about SRHR and business management. In the Goal Setting Session, I have chosen myself to be a mobile servicing and retailing entrepreneur- something challenging especially in rural area".
Along with awareness building sessions, IMAGINE also launched vocational trainings as alternative opportunities of women's economic empowerment. A month-long residential training course organized on 'Mobile Servicing' at Kurigram Technical Training Center (TTC)], giving priority to the married adolescents and Parul tried to convince her husband and family for attending the training. Although she didn't succeed initially as she had to stay outside from home for a month, but when her husband visited the training center, explored the accommodation facilities and had a conversation with the trainers, he was convinced. Then he spoke to his family to make the decision easier for his wife.
"I never thought I could stay outside from home for one month. It was like a day - dream for me but finally IMAGINE team convinced my husband and family that I could be an earning member and could contribute something to the family. I will always remember those 30 days of my life where no one yelled at me like in my in-laws for any mistakes. My courage, expectations and future goal have become much more solid after completing the training."
After receiving the training, IMAGINE project provided a Smartphone along with seed money as business start-up capital for those trained girls. Now, Parul is working as a mobile entrepreneur and launched her own mobile servicing and retailing shop by her own name 'Parul Mobile Telecom and Servicing Center'. Parul's husband now fully supports her in every aspect of their lives. She said, "Now I am confident enough in making any decision either for me or family affairs. Every girl have rights to live with dignity, honor and power. So, we must have to self-reliant and confident."
Parul now leads a completely different life due to her passion and IMAGINE's contribution. Now she can actively participate in all of IMAGINE's activities and the family members acknowledge her contribution to the family. She also has an active participation in her family's decision making process.
"Community now praises all my achievements as well as my family. I have created my own identity as a mobile entrepreneur. I firmly believe my journey will enlighten many others and many Paruls who will experience a new world of equality." "
The story is written by Shamim Kobir, M&E Officer of IMAGINE project under Women & Girls' Empowerment Program of CARE Bangladesh.


SCARBOROUGH, Maine — The Marshwood High School girls soccer team was dead.
Buried. Rolled up in the artificial turf at top-ranked Scarborough Tuesday night, trailing 1-0 in the Western Maine Class A quarterfinals with less than a minute to play.
But someone forgot to tell Tasha Chabot.
Knocked to the turf in the aftermath of a late free kick, Chabot regained her footing, raced to a loose ball 25 yards from the goal, and unloaded a laser that beat Scarborough goalie Jill Deering high and sent the game to an improbable overtime.
Six minutes into sudden death, Brittany Henley got a solid head on a Kacey Pope corner kick and the ninth-ranked Hawks swarmed the field to celebrate a 2-1 win, one hardly anybody saw coming.
"I'm speechless," said Marshwood goalie Chelsea Watson, whose play was a big reason the game stayed scoreless deep into the second half. "I couldn't be prouder of our team and the way we played. We do better coming in as the underdog, I think."
Marshwoood (8-5-3) advances to Saturday's regional semifinals, where it will play on the road against either No. 4 Gorham or No. 5 Cheverus. It lost to both teams during the regular season, 6-0 and 3-0, respectively.
"We're good under pressure," said Henley. "We're not going to break. We're not going to break and we're not going to give up."
Pick up the game late. The Red Storm, which had managed a territorial edge all game, finally broke through with 3:23 left in regulation. Watson came out high to break up a rush and Jen Colpitts got enough of a foot on the ball to roll it slowly across the vacated goal line for a 1-0 lead.
Ballgame? Not quite. With the Hawks making a rare, desperate foray across midfield, Scarborough's Nicolette Caron received a yellow card for unsportsmanlike conduct, resulting in a stoppage of play and a free kick.
Katie Emmons served the kick into the box, but nobody was there for a redirect. The ball eventually rolled outside the box where Chabot, a diminutive midfielder, got to it and scored with 51 seconds left.
"At one point I was on the ground," she said. "I got up and saw the ball coming my way. I just said, 'This is my shot' and I just took it."
The goal sent the Hawks into the first 15-minute sudden-death overtime with a bounce in their collective step. On the short end of corner kicks 5-0 in regulation, they earned one with their first rush.
After nearly six minutes of back and forth, Pope attempted a second corner from the left side and lofted a ball toward the far post, where Henley — a back — got her head on it and directed it in to end the game.
"I know Casey's corner kick," said Henley. "I've seen her do this for a while. I know they go long so I ran around back and came in from the outside to get it."
The Red Storm, who blitzed the Hawks 4-0 during the regular season, ended their year at 13-2.
"There was no question they had the territorial edge, and the shots were just off the chart," said Marshwood coach Bob Pierce. "But when you have a superior goalkeeper who plays like that ...; anything can happen."
Most of the game was a Watson showcase. With play consistently on her side of the field, she made her best save early in the second half when she deflected a point-blank bid from Colpitts.
Moments later, Haley Carignan beat her with a left-footed grounder from the left edge of the box, but the ball hit the right post squarely and was cleared away.
And the one that beat her for a goal? She only had to think about that for a little more than two minutes before Chabot worked her magic.
"Such a sigh of relief," said Watson. "Letting goals in kind of puts a lot on my shoulders. I try to just have a loss of memory."
No way anyone from Marshwood wants to lose this memory.


text:
Projects / 211 Yonge
211 Yonge Street
Do they come any more handsome than this? Built in 1919 for the flagship store and offices of the former Adams Furniture Company, the composition and brawn of the main facade was carefully restored. Complemented by an extensive interior renovation, the project delivers a refreshed robust heritage building on Toronto's most prominent street.
HNR Properties Limited
211 Yonge St, Toronto, Canada
Phase 1 Completed
Phase 2 Ongoing
Renovation/Restoration
Revelateur Studio
The heritage building at 211 Yonge Street last saw major renovation in the 1970s, and little renewal had occurred since. The scope of work included restoration of the principal facade, life safety updates, as well as upgrading retail and office suites for new tenants. Careful analysis of the Building Code revealed the heavy timber structure could be exposed, thereby making the building more attractive and marketable for prospective tenants.
The project faced numerous challenges, including the need to maintain operation of the building during upgrades. In one sub-project, an extensive restaurant renovation, careful coordination allowed for the replacement of kitchen systems within vastly reworked and spatially reduced areas. Our team also strived to determine all opportunities for reuse of the resources and materials already available within the building. We surveyed the existing wood windows and demonstrated that they were in good shape for retention and restoration, with only 24 of the 216 requiring replacement for building code reasons.
The renovation was designed following LEED principles and prioritized efficiency and tenant comfort. We focused on a return to the robust base finish in order to reduce reliance on finishes that have to be removed and replaced over time. Where possible, operable windows were maintained on all floors in order to give user control. This, in combination with the tenant specific systems, including individual AC units and metering, and tenant billing promotes responsibility with thermal control. During tenant turnover, abandoned spaces were carefully analyzed and explored for reuse and turn-key marketing of the suite as is, or with minor modification where possible.
A humble addition for a growing family
Sunday School Lofts
Integrating new with old


text:
Mar 17, 2015: Gospel Herald: Randy Alcorn on Biblical View of Heaven: Will We Play Sports? What Age Will We Be?
Christian author Randy Alcorn has studied the topic of heaven intently, and believes that many Christians will be surprised at the similarities between the new heavens and the new earth with present realities. In anticipation of an upcoming national conference, Alcorn gave an interview with The Gospel Coalition about his perspective on eternity.
Dec 31, 2014: Randy Alcorn: EPM: Keeping an Eternal Perspective in Times of Disappointment
Oct 14, 2014: One Place: Greg Laurie Interviews Randy Alcorn on Why God Allows Suffering -
There's a lot of talk about heaven. Some have even written books about their near-death experiences and what they know about "the great beyond." But Wednesday on A NEW BEGINNING, Pastor Greg Laurie and author Randy Alcorn reveal the truth about heaven from the pages of God's Word.
Sept 4, 2014: Tiger Strypes: Review of If God is Good" by Randy Alcorn.
I received the invitation from Family Christian "Blogger Team" to read and review the book called "If God is Good" by Randy Alcorn. It has the subtitle of "Faith in the Midst of Suffering and Evil".
Aug 3, 2014: Z-News Religion: Randy Alcorn: The Lions Claw
In C. S. Lewis's The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, Eustace Clarence Scrubb describes to Edmund how terrible it felt when Aslan, the Lion and Christ-figure, changed him from the dragon he'd become to the boy he was intended to be.
July 18, 2014: First Person: This Week's Guest:Randy Alcorn
During these summer months, we are reaching back into the FIRST PERSON archive and re-playing some popular interviews from the recent past. This week, we go back to 2011 and an interview with author and speaker Randy Alcorn. This is what we said when it first aired in 2011:
BOOKS ON THE RECORD: May 11, 2014: Since 1985 Alcorn has written many books, but none have been more popular than The Treasure Principle which was published in 2001. Released with little fanfare and with only three brief endorsements (including John Piper's who says, "Supercharged with stunning, divine truth! Lightning struck over and over as I read it.") the book claims to "unlock the secret of joyful giving." The "treasure principle" is this: You can't take it with you—but you can send it on ahead. Alcorn says, "If we give instead of keep, if we invest in the eternal instead of in the temporal, we store up treasures in heaven that will never stop paying dividends. Whatever we store up on earth will be left behind when we leave. Whatever treasures we store up in heaven will be waiting for us when we arrive." Along with the principle he offers six keys:
Principle #1 - God owns everything. I'm His money manager. Principle #2 - My heart always goes where I put God's money. Principle #3 - Heaven, not earth, is my home. Principle #4- I should live for the dot but for the line [not for this short life on earth but for eternity] Principle #5 - Giving is the only antidote to materialism. Principle #6 - God prospers me not to raise my standard of living, but to raise my standard of giving. (SOURCE: Tim Challies: "The Bestsellers: The Treasure Principle ")
Apr 12, 2012: Christ in Prophecy Journal: Randy Alcorn's Book Heaven Reviewed: The Not So Good
In the first half of this book review of Randy Alcorn's book Heaven, I pointed out how well the author dispelled some misconceptions about Heaven. In this second half, I'll point out some doctrinal areas of contention I have with this book.
Feb 27, 2012: Creation.com: An eternal perspective on creation
Lita Cosner chats with Randy Alcorn, writer and founder of Eternal Perspective Ministries
Oct 8, 2010: Good Question Have Groups Talking: Pets in heaven? (Randy Alcorn)
Humorist Will Rogers said, "If there are no dogs in heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went." This statement was, of course, based on sentiment, not theology.
May 29, 2009: Sovereign Grace Ministries: Meet Randy Alcorn (1)
Randy is the founder and director of Eternal Perspective Ministries (EPM) and a prolific writer. Alcorn has authored a small library of over 30 titles, which include non-fiction books…
Apr 1, 2003: Christianity Today: The Pastor without a Paycheck
Randy Alcorn learned to live what he had preached while fleeing the wrath of abortionists and the judgment of the courts
@randyalcorn - Eternal Perspective Ministries -
Randy Alcorn (born June 23, 1954) is an American Protestant author and director of Eternal Perspective Ministries, a non-profit Christian organization dedicated to teaching an eternal viewpoint and helping the needy of the world. He has written several novels, including Deadline, Dominion, and Deception. He received a Gold Medallion Book Award in 2003 for his novel Safely Home. He has also written a number of non-fiction books, including Heaven, The Purity Principle, and The Treasure Principle. Eternal Perspective Ministries owns the royalties to his books and 100 percent of them are given away to support missions, famine relief, pro-life work, and other ministries. He and his wife, Nanci, have two grown up and married daughters, Karina and Angela, who assisted him in writing the novel The Ishbane Conspiracy in 2001. Randy and Nanci have four grandsons. They live in Gresham, Oregon.
He wrote a book similar to The Screwtape Letters called Lord Foulgrin's Letters. In Alcorn's book, references are made to demons, known only as "ST" and "WW" (for it had become a crime in Hell to even speak their real names), who had their letters found by a human and were punished by Beelzebub for their incompetence. He has also written a sequel to Lord Foulgrin's Letters entitled The Ishbane Conspiracy in which Lord Foulgrin from the first book is put on probation and is receiving letters from a senior demon named Prince Ishbane. In between the letters actual scenes from the humans lives unfold. In November 2009, Alcorn signed an ecumenical statement known as the Manhattan Declaration calling on Evangelicals, Catholics and Orthodox not to comply with rules and laws permitting abortion, same-sex marriage and other matters that go against their religious consciences


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Deadline looms for Oahu residents to renew expired driver's licenses, state ID cards
By Nina Wu nwu@staradvertiser.com
STAR-ADVERTISER / 2014
City officials are urging Oahu residents to schedule appointments now to renew their Hawaii driver's licenses, identification cards, and learner's permits as soon as possible, ahead of a looming deadline of Oct. 4.
Gov. David Ige's latest emergency proclamation, which waives expired identification documents, is set to expire at 11:59 p.m. on Oct. 4.
"If your driver's license, state ID, or learner's permit is overdue, it's time to renew," said Nola Miyasaki, director of Honolulu's Department of Customer Services, in a news release. "We have opened up extended hours and Saturdays to accommodate more appointments for driver's licenses, state IDs and learner's permits."
Since March 2020, more than 90,000 driver's licenses, state ID cards and learner's permits are still outstanding — having expired, and not been renewed. Oahu residents with expired licenses and IDs could face penalties and other ramifications.
For instance, after the state's latest executive order expires on Oct. 4, residents would not be able to renew a driver's license that has been expired one year. Instead, they would have to start the process for getting a driver's license over again, including the written exam and road test.
If the original expiration date on their driver's licenses is 90 days past due, the license-holder would be fined $5 per month for up to a year, and the fines would have to be paid before the expired license can be renewed.
Oahu residents are encouraged to take advantage of extended hours at driver licensing centers, which are operating from 7 a.m. to 5 p.m. Monday through Friday. Select satellite city halls are also open for Saturday appointments to renew driver's licenses, learner's permits, and state IDs.
Customers can use the city's AlohaQ appointment reservation system to schedule visits six months in advance and are encouraged to check frequently for cancellations. Customers are also encouraged to show up to their scheduled appointments.
Stand-by service is available when customers cancel or do not show up, but same-day service is not guaranteed.
Visit honolulu.gov/csd for more information.
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