text:
(Not) an unlimited book market?
With the increasing efforts to revive the book market in the Arab world by publishers and cultural institutions, intermittently hindered by economic, political and social factors, the limitations of this market are yet to be explored and redefined. By Amira Elmasry
While questions like ″how can we fortify literary exchange in the region and thereby also stimulate the joy of reading?″ are hardly likely to be met with unequivocal and immediate solutions, market players are relentlessly looking for insight.
In light of its current focus on the Arab World 2015-17, and on the occasion of the Frankfurt Book Fair 2015, Litrix invited three experts from different backgrounds to discuss the current limitations of the Arab book market and possible means of promoting its expansion.
Pushing the limits of definition
The first question asked by the moderator, Amira El Ahl, was about pushing the boundaries already: do publishing houses and bookstores offer more than their definitions suggest? As a publisher and the owner of Kotob Khan Bookstore in Egypt, Karam Youssef seems to be trying to offer more than books for serious readers. Founded 10 years ago, Kotob Khan has become a cultural hub in Maadi, Cairo, teeming with cultural activities such as creative writing workshops, movie screenings, book discussions, and music events, according to Youssef.
Along similarly entrepreneurial lines, author of children's books and owner of Al Khayyat Al Saghir publishing house (founded in 2007), Rania Zaghir (Lebanon) is also trying to expand the scope of her activities. Zaghir's main concern is to keep things ″moving and fun″, trying to offer as many reading spaces as possible, especially in refugee camps.
Zaghir refuses to be confined in the writer/publisher profile, which sounds ″boring and unfair″ to her, and she prefers to view herself as the owner of an ″independent play store″. Her goal is not to just create books, but also to help readers find their way back to reading, explained Zaghir.
The Goethe-Institut Cairo has been running training programmes for Egyptian publishers since 2008. The courses are sponsored by the Egyptian publishing association. The Goethe-Institut offers young publishers the chance to take up internships in German publishing companies – and booksellers the opportunity of a month′s work experience in a German bookstore
According to Valentina Qussissiya (Jordan), CEO of Abdul Hameed Shoman Foundation, founded by the Arab Bank in 1978, cultural institutions are also expanding in scope. As part of its investment in cultural innovation, the Shoman Foundation funds one of the largest private libraries in the Arab world, a cultural forum, film screenings, concerts, and book signing events, in addition to awards for Arab scientists.
While supporting book fairs in cooperation with the Jordanian Ministry of Culture, the foundation also attempts to take its activities to the streets and make access to books and education available for everyone.
Books found, audience lost
When asked about how Arab readers can be reached despite distribution limitations and infrastructure shortcomings, the three speakers seemed to have slightly different, but potentially complimentary approaches.
Zaghir insisted that the books offered need to be ″sexy″ in the first place, in order to attract readers. She believes publishers should go out and look for children in play areas, schools, and shelters instead of waiting for their readers to reach out to them. Not everyone can be reached of course, and even then not everyone is going to become a bookworm, she admitted.
Qussaisiya agreed that content is the primary appeal factor for readers, especially among children. To make books more accessible, the Shoman Foundation lays on transport to its interactive children library, as well as running a mobile library project and a family library initiative - in cooperation with the Jordanian Ministry of Culture - which offers books at reduced prices.
Both Zaghir and Qussaissiya have been working closely with refugees from Syria, Palestine and Iraq, and trying to reach as many geographical areas in Lebanon and Jordan, respectively, as possible.
Youssef pointed out that in Egypt there are a number of problems when it comes to distribution, problems which she believes cannot be ″solved individually.″ While she tries to work around the local transport issues, and actually manages to send her books outside Cairo, the sales are setback by the remarkably low percentage of readers, due to high illiteracy rates and the fact that ″reading is not an embedded habit.″
Youssef's strategy, however, is to publish books that are timeless classics, so now – after the revolution – she is focusing more on translations, especially in the fields of philosophy and science, targeting the young readers.
Qussaissiya believes that profitability as a goal needs to be set aside, at least for now, until people actually rediscover their love for books. She thinks that having librarians who are passionate about books, and libraries that embrace diversity in content with reasonable opening hours, could help speed up the process.
Censorship in the Arab world
Censorship in the region is the elephant in the room - and yet it is also mentioned by each of the panelists. Youssef refers to a number of incidents where her books were rejected in certain Arab countries, mostly in the Gulf region. But Zaghir is worried that it may be, at least in part, self-inflicted, ″The worst kind of censorship is self-imposed censorship.″ She believes that this mindset originates deep within the school curricula, which nurture hatred towards ″all things different″, encouraging sectarianism and class discrimination. Unlike Youssef, she does not think the reader is the cause of the problem, but rather the officials in educational and cultural institutions.
In answer to whether e-books could possibly bypass such obstacles, Qussaissiya mentioned that they have been considering this option through the available platforms, like Kotobi, Kotobarabia and the soon to be launched Google e-book platform. The market exists, for almost everyone owns a smartphone – even if the available e-content is overwhelmingly religious – but the publishers do not trust this format, because of the vulnerability of copyrights in the region. Youssef added that people also tend to distrust the online payment system.
Co-operation with state institutions
To ensure the ongoing expansion of the Arab book market, Youssef emphasised the need for a long term strategic plan, supported by the government and targeting children, families and schools, in order to spread the reading habit. The plan should include, for instance, opening up more public libraries and cultural centres and introducing reading hours at schools. Zaghir also said that she expected more serious efforts from the government, for individual efforts, valuable as they are, are bound to remain at the micro level. She seemed rather critical of how governments waste resources on projects with no true literary value, like spending millions on awards, instead of subsidising books.
While Qussaissiya was less critical of awards, which she believes are an important incentive for creative writers and publishers, she thought working with the government can be problematic at times. ″It is better to try and work with the public, despite the few good government initiatives, like the family library. You also need to have patience with the government, and long term investment to have an impact.″
At the end of the discussion, El Ahl asked the three book enthusiasts about their personal vision for the future of the Arab book market. Youssef believes that e-books would play an increasing role in the future in overcoming the distribution problems. She hopes to continue publishing books with valuable content, without focusing on numbers, but rather on marketing. On a similarly positive note, Qussaissiya expressed her wish to see a street library everywhere, and more grants supporting publishing with special focus. As for Zaghir, she would like to keep moving and ″creating magic″ through her work, while staying true to herself.
Amira Elmasry
Litrix project co-ordinator, Goethe-Institut Cairo
© Goethe Institut Cairo 2015
44th Cairo Book Fair: A breath of fresh air for publishers17th International Book Fair in Algiers: A missed opportunityQantara Dossier: German-Arab literature exchange
Arabic language, Arabic literature, Egyptian literature, German-Arab Literature Exchange, Translation
Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Mashriq, Syria


Rebuttal Witness Law and Legal Definition | USLegal, Inc.
Rebuttal Witness is a witness who is called to rebut testimony already presented. For example in a murder case the defence might call a character witness to provide evidence that the accused was a mild mannered nice guy. A rebuttal witness might be called by the prosecution to provide contradictory evidence of the accused's character and might testify that the person was violent, bad tempered or abusive. Experts are often called to testify for the prosecution and the defence will then often call other (rebuttal) experts who might have reached a different conclusion.


We're both very happy to announce a huge milestone for us!
We've been big fans of the Macabre Unit sound for many years now and always found their artists, ethos and music very influential and inspiring, so when we were offered a release ont he label we jumped at the chance. We're now pleased to tell you that our release is die out on the 2nd of October 2015 and it is called the Cyclic EP.
There will also be an extra 2 free tracks when you buy the entire EP exclusively from Juno amongst a few other cool things to watch out for too.
Thanks to all the DJ's and Channels that have bveen supporting this release and big ups to all crew who've been spreading the word.


That no release of fumigant gas shall be released to atmosphere when there is evidence of a cold inversion layer present in the form of cloud cover over Port Shakespeare and Picton that would allow for toxic gas to rise, reach the ceiling and be swept by any North west winds over the Picton community.
That wind socks and electronic wind monitors to tell of wind strength and direction, to be erected around the log yard that needs to be checked before fumigations are commenced. And during fumigations if wind direction should change.
Fumigant gas not to be released in very still conditions to protect health and safety of fumigators, port workers and employees of businesses adjacent to port boundary. In still conditions the gasses may linger or go to ground.
Fumigation not to occur if there are North West Winds that could blow a plume of gas over town.
Temperature needs to factor in conditions of release also, not to be released under a set temperature. Should it be allowed to be released on a rainy day that is cool with no sun to help flash it off with still conditions ?
That all fumigation workers must wear protective clothing gas masks and gloves approved for use for handling or exposure to toxic fumigants. Gas masks/ filters to be used only once.
All port workers to vacate port yard while fumigations are being undertaken and not to return until monitoring assures the supervisor that there is zero risk of exposure to said fumigant.
Fumigations to be monitored by a company that is totally independent of Genera or Port Marlb. NMHD to be notified of any release of fumigant to atmosphere.
The decision made on whether climatic conditions and wind and weather is suitable needs to be expert in this field, but independent !
Not sure what your monitoring regime is, obviously you monitor around the yard and around boundary, but what about the lookout above the port, (outside boundary ) because there is an obvious risk that as the gas rises the wind could blow a plume onto hills above port and threaten public !
What about monitoring down on the big wharf, terminal, fore shore, Nelson Square.
It needs to be more than just the yard boundary fence.
Query !!!!! concerned about risk to workers in businesses along West Shore, would it be better to fumigate outside of work hrs ?
I suspect that the heat of the sun helps flash the gas off to atmosphere ideal time frame would probably be in early evening after 6.00 pm.
Would it be possible for Port Marlb to notify Picton Community of fumigations through Radio Marlborough and Marlb Radio VHF & Port company operators on Ch19.
That vehicle access should be denied to public around the west shore while fumigations are being carried out.
No Fumigants should be allowed to be stored on Port Marlborough premises unless it is in a specially designed building that complies with HSNO regulations that Port Marlb have a resource consent for.
Water quality. Methyl Bromide is eco toxic, so when wharves/ships holds are washed down the discharge must be filtered to prevent toxins entering marine environment. Fresh water streams in shakespear bay must be monitored after fumigations so to shell fish beds.
Policy 1.1 of the Marlborough Sounds resource management plan 17.2.3 need to be adhered to.
Port supervisors to work with MDC staff to set up an up to date Hazardous screening programme. Keeping good data/records of fumigations eg amount of fumigant used per tonnage, when, where, how often.


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NEW HISTORY IN JOHN ERIK'S OWN HAND! . . . (In other words, Never Give Up!)
With the following email from Bro. James Meyer on 12 Oct. 2014 I received some of the most exciting "new" information in a long time about John Erik Forsgren!! It is obviously not new - but it is certainly the first I have heard about this item which sheds new light on at least one very puzzling piece of John's history! I should have paid more attention to the period of time that John E. spent in Southern Utah - specifically Moroni and Sanpete County! I have made a typewritten transcription of what turns out to be the only handwritten (by John himself) account of his life that I presently know about. The following is part of the Moroni Ward Melchizedek Priesthood minutes and records, 1864-1904. (Call # in the Church History Dept. is LR 5786 13 and is on both microfilm and in hard copy. First is the e-mail from James Meyer.
"Sister Austin,
I am doing some research in Moroni, Utah ward records to learn more about my Danish and Swedish ancestors who settled in that area. In the High Priests Minutes book of the then Moroni Branch, I found some biographies that were written by members of the quorum in 1868 [1865 actually]—and among them are John Erick Forssgren (the spelling given in the book) and his father John Olof Forssgren.
Though I am not a descendant, I recognize pure gold when I see it — so I made copies and started looking on Family Search—and I found, through one of the sources, your blog for him. . . . "
Pure gold, indeed! But a word of warning. Even when we encounter personal reports, a good genealogist needs to take into account the date of creation of a document. John Forsgren did not give us footnotes. He never states that he uses a record book with dates recorded at the time of the event to jog his memory (even though he may well have done so since he does give many dates of events that occurred in his life). This personal history was submitted in 1865 – a full 22 years after John Erick was baptized a member of the Church. I DO know that he kept a huge record book of his life and in 1865 it would still have been in his possession. (As of 2015 the whereabouts of this book is unknown. It may well have been destroyed). I cannot know at this posting (Jan 2015) what exactly he used to confirm the dates he put into this short autobiography. If it is just his own memory then the dates may or may not be accurate. [Most of them differ with other "accepted" or on file dates of official LDS Church Records]. All I know is that this life sketch is most assuredly of interest to all of us who are extended family who want to understand his remarkable life. I have retained John's unique spelling and punctuation. I have taken the liberty of inserting personal observations in red, inside brackets along with his narrative.
[page 1]
This record have been purchased by the members belonging to the Moroni branch Quorum of High Preast, and delivered to the Quorum on the 22th Day of January 1865. for the especial porpose of having their genealogy, where first babtized, by whom, and by whom confirmed, ordinations of the Preasthood and by whom ordained recorded. To have their busnes minutes, Preachings scatches of interesting doctrines advanced by members as well visiting high and noted orthys holding the keys of the Superior powr of the Holy Preasthood that Shall be considered worthy of being written on its pure unsullied pages, which in future ages may be refaired to by all interesting members who delights in magnifying their Holy callings of the Preasthood of the Son of God the Redeemer of man from sin unto rightiousnes by his infinite grace and mercey through the Holy Gosple which wi as members and purchasers of this record do humbly worship in the Spirit of meekness according to the knowleage wi have of his Holy truth revealed unto us in this and generations to come hopeing to prove faithfull to the End. And be crowned with Eternal lives and Celestial honers at his appearing, whose right it is to rule and govern the whole Earth, to him wi give Glory! Honer!! And praise, now and forever Amen.
John Erick Forssgren, Clark.
[This probably constitutes a list of all the men he was either going to interview or DID interview. Bro. Meyer only sent me the pages pertaining to John Erik Forssgren and his father John Olof]
Joseph Shepheard
John E. Forssgren [Name crossed through]
John D. Chase
George W: Bradley
Bent Morison
Madison D. Hambleton [? Name is crossed through]
Rasmus Rasmussen [Name is crossed through]
Soren Jos: Fogelborg [? Last name crossed through]
Peter Petersen. Sorn Igorson [second name is in lighter ink as tho added later than the rest of the list]
Joren Peterson [crossed through with a single line]
Ole Anderson.
Hared Petson.
Amus A. Bradley.
Joseph S. Allen [lightly crossed through]
William Draper.
Thomas Howarth.
Peter Sorinson sen
John Bailey
Rica Williams [crossed through]
Daniel Lewis [crossed through]
John Syme.
Swen Andersen
[The last 6 names are in a different, lighter ink or pencil from the rest of the list]
John Olof Forssgren. Son of John & Christine Forssgren who was the Son of Christoffer & Eve Forssgren born in Gefle Sweeden on the 17th Day of October, 1793. having traves the great sea for fourty one years and arriveing home to my place of burth I learned that my Son John Erick Forssgren had been banished out of his Country that gave him birth bread & raised until the time he was i his sixteeth year. for preaching the Gosple of Jesus Christ through the Spirit of revelation and the authority given JosephSmith Jun the Seer & Revelator and Gods wisguran on Earth for the Last dispenseasion of the fullness of time hearing of him being in Danmark I wrote to him a letter and received his correspondence by which I was convinced of the truth of the doctrin taught. in the year of our Lord 1852 I tooke ship and saild six hundred miles to be Babtized by my son John Erick Forssgren and I was Babtized and confirmed in the Church of Jesus Christ of latterday Saints by him on the 29th Day of August.1852. from this time I wiseted my nummerous conections and relatives in Sweedem boare my feable testimony of the truth I had received among them; and the Lords providencial time for my deliverance out of Babelon, came and I Emmegrated and left Schandinavia in company with meny Saints on the 20th Day of April. 1863. and arrived into the Great Sault Lake City on the Laest Day of August the following fall, same season. Stayed in Box Elder co over the winter until my son John E: came and brouth mi to receive my indowment in the House of the Lord in Great Soalt Lake City when I was ordained a High Preast un the hands of Elders _ _ _ _ [space is left in the narration here] J.V. Long & J.E. Forssgren. the former being mouth on the 15th of October 1864. from whence I continued my journey with my Son to Moroni Sanpete county and are united with my breathren.
"John Erick Forssgren son of John Olof & Anna Christina Forssgren who was the son of John & Christena Forssgren who was the son of Christoffer & Eve [Note: Don't know who "Eve" is. Accepted wife was named Britta Mattsson] Forssgren, born in Gefle, Sweden on the 7th Day of November 1816.
While young and in my 9 year I went to school I spoak to my schoolmates that the Lord would send his Angel and give to a man a record that was had in the Earth in a far distant Western Land and that the man would bring it fourth unto all Peple and all that would hear and blive would God save in his kingdom for reason why I became persecuted by my breatheran in School. So that when I was in my tenth year and in 1826. [Note: In all the accounts of John Forsgren's background this is the first I have ever heard tell of this premonition or spiritual vision he might have had. It is similar to an account purported to have come to his sister Erika in her life. So again I can only be left to wonder if it is an embellished account of his life or if we are indeed gifted with a new dimension to a man who would end up playing a big role in the early Church! That he went off to sea as a young boy has always been common knowledge]. I could stand the persecusion no longer and I as a boy went to sea until in 1832. being April (and after I buried my mother) I went on board of a ship, and according to my Long desires came to Newyork, in the beginning of August, continued to sail out of Newyork three years and seven years out of Boston Massachusetts where I heard Bro. Erastus Snow preach the Gosple of Jesus Christ according to the New & Everlasting Covt and I received the same and was babtized by Elder Wm Meggin on the 26th Day of August 1843. [note: Official temple sources say 16 July 1843] and was confirmed some time after under the hands of Elders Brigham Young Heber C. Kimball and Parley P. Pratt at the time of their traveling holding conferences with the Eastern churches of the states, calling upon the Saints together with their means to healp to build up Nauvoo Teample unto the Name of the Lord, I sould out and prepaired to go with the saints immediately but sicknes and Death of my first born son John Adolph hindered mi. [This is the most amazing revelation of anything in this life sketch. Without exception that I am aware of everyone has always alluded to John Erick's firstborn child with his first wife as Charles!! There has been varying opinion as to where he was born and when. The name John Adolph makes much more sense and even if JEF is relying totally on memory here, does one forget the name of his own first child??? I suspect that people mixed up the name of the son based on the fact that it was a Charles Snow, with whom wife Mary Ann eventually left Utah and returned "to her people in Boston" - as the story is always told. This reveals that the child very likely was born, died and is now buried somewhere in Boston rather than in Nauvoo or Council Bluffs as others have conjectured.] So I terried until nex Spring when I arrived in Nauvoo 1844. was ordained a member in the 7th Quorum of Seventies on the 17th Day of November. Inlisted in the companys constituting the Nauvoo Legion and was of the gards around his (Bro Joseph Smiths, Sin) premises and about the city after his & Brothers marterdom, I assisted in the Building of the Temple until wi received our indowment and moved away by expulsion of the Gentiles.
I received my indowment in the Latter part of December 1845, and was sealed to my wife Mary Ann Hunt of Boston at the same time. Left there with the first wagons of Heber C. Kimball family on the 16th [or 10th] Day of February 1846. and came to the Councel Bluffs and according to request I enlisted in the Mormon Battalion on the 16th of July as a private soldier for a years service in the Mexican War with the United States, traveled by foot [next page] three thousend miles the Lord give us the victory over three different places in Mexico and al'so when the Battalion arrived in California the Spaniards surrendered, and the country became ours a year from the date wi was discharged. And I took up my Journey within company with one hundred and fifty faithfull Breathre to go and meet the Church or our wifes and familys in the Great Soalt Lake valleys of the Rocky mountains where I arrived on the 18th Day of October 1847. Married Miss Sarah Bell Davis on the fiftinth Day of April 1849. [official records give 15 Feb. 1849] was called on the 8th Day of October in a general conference to go on a mission to open the Gosple in Sweeden my native country. Left the Valleys and home of my choice, on the 18th Day of October 1842. arrived in Sweeden on the 24th Day of June 1850. opened the Gosple, in Gefle Sweeden, and Babtized my Brother Peter Adolph Forssgren the first member in that country on the 12th Day of July 1850. [some sources say 20th, official temple record says 26th July] after being as it were raised from the Dead by the Laying on of hands in the name of the Lord.
And on Thursday 25th following week I babtized my Syster Erika Christina Forssgren & confirmed her at the same time and on the 6th of August I preached out Doors in the woods out side of the city and babtized 14teen persons and confirmed them on the next day being the 7th on the 8th Day I preached again when meny more was willing to obey him. I was taken prisoner by the Marshel & police and was banished out of Sweeden, first from Gefle to Stockholm to appear before the Kings Court and from thence to go ombord of an American Ship called Walter R. Jones Capt: Colley; who informed mi that my passage and expences was payd by the authoritys of Stockholm, to Newyork. I stoped in Helsingour, and went to Copenhagan by steamboat to visit with my Breathren Erastus Snow & P.O. Hansen where I stayed and healped to build up a Church of fifteen hundred members presided over the Copenhagen Comferance andd traveled and preached through out the Land, Sent Sweedish Elders to Sweeden to preach the Gosple, to the poor and the honest in heart, president over the whole mission after Predt. E. Snow returned home, and on the 20th of December I left Denmark [next page] with two hundred eityseven Saints who emigrated with me to go home to the peacefull valleys of the mountains of Ephraham arrived in the great Soalt Lake City on the 29th..of September 1853. was sealed to my wife Sarah Bell Davis by Presdt Brigham Young in the Councel house on the 8th Day of April 1854. filled the Carsons Mission expedision to build up a Stake of Zion there (previous to the call for mi to fill the Carson mission I was ordained a High Preast under the hands of Presdt Davis Pettigrew who give mi Lisence as an acting member of the Quorum on the 9th Day of April) when the Carson Mission was called hom the time of Buckannons Army set to devastate the Saints I returned with the rest of my breathren; and arrived in Brigham City on the 20th of October 1857, tarried there until the gennerall move to the South when I move to Sanpete County in the Spring of 1859, helpt to build up a new place called Moroni keapt the record of the High Preast Quorum from the beginning according to the best of my ability, and the Blessing of the Lord, upon mi here I married Kirstin Neilsen on the 8th Day of December 1862. was sealed to her on the 16th Day of October 1864 by Elder Wilford Woodruff in the indowment house Great Soalt Lake City. "
_____________ ________________ _______________
Moroni, Utah was founded by George Washington Bradley in 1859. That same year George Washington Bradley became the bishop of Moroni and held that position for 18 years. The population in 1860 was 703 individuals. By 1870 it had dropped to 633.
Moroni was settled by families from Nephi in 1859, but it had a real identity crisis. It went through the names Sanpitch, Mego, Little Rome, and Duck Springs before Sanpete's first probate judge named it Moroni City after a Nephite Prophet in The Book of Mormon.
Moroni sits midway between Nephi and Manti on the most pronounced "North Bend" of the San Pitch River. Families from Nephi moved there early in 1859. High water in 1862 forced the town's founders to move away from the river site and spread north over the rolling hills, a setting best seen when approaching Moroni from the south. For water, they tapped the San Pitch farther east with an intricate and expensive system of canals and ditches that stretched from Mt. Pleasant to Fountain Green's south fields. Reaching out in all directions, the city was big enough by 1891 to support an "opera house" that seated 1,000 persons.
Labels: JEF Histories, JEF's son Charles aka John Adolph, Kiersten Nelson Johnson, Mary Ann Hunt, Sarah Bell Davis
Evaly March 14, 2015 at 9:44 PM
Thank you for sharing this new information and for doing this blog about John Erik Forsgren and his descendants. This is really great!
NEW HISTORY IN JOHN ERIK'S OWN HAND! . . . (In oth...

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


(June 2009) – Monday, June 8, has been declared Arts Day as part of the Madison Bicentennial Celebration's 200-hour party. From 3 p.m. to 8 p.m., visitors and residents will find a variety of activities to do that center around the arts.
Events will be held along the riverfront, Bicentennial Park and West Street running from the river to Third Street but not blocking Main Street.
A rubbing art historic scavenger hunt, eco-art sculpture for children, a video game competition, Chinese character drawing, the art of dance, the art of language, a 15-minute theater performance are just some of the activities scheduled.
The Rivers Institute at Hanover College will have a photo booth, and there will be a Harlan Hubbard artwork exhibit, and even sidewalk chalk mural drawings. The late Hubbard was an artist and author who lived off the land along the Ohio River in Trimble County, Ky.
As part of the Arts Day program, at 5:30 p.m. the Madison Chautauqua mural will be unveiled on the side of Rogers Corner, 101 E. Main St. The Madison Chautauqua Festival of Art committee wanted to give the city a Bicentennial mural to be put in place by summer 2009, in time for the city's celebration of its founding.
A competition was held last year in which area artists submitted designs that have a theme of "historic Madison." Once the design was selected, a group of 10 artists produced sections of that design, using the medium they are comfortable with, to create the whole art piece.
Each piece was then digitally photographed, enlarged and put on vinyl. The entire mural will be hung in place in a dedication ceremony in June 2009 and will stay in place for one year.
Music throughout the day on the stage at Bicentennial Park, 150 W. Vaughn Dr., includes a 6 p.m. performance by John Walburn, Bill Bettler and Craig Philipp at 7 p.m. and an 8 p.m. performance by folk singers Kriss Luckett and Greg Ziesemer. The Drumming Circle, a participatory event in which everyone is invited to join in and beat on some type of percussion instrument, will close out the evening's activities at 9 p.m. Everyone is encouraged to bring lawn chairs. The music events are free.
After dark, at 9:30 p.m. there will be a reception at joeyG's, 218 E. Main St. in honor of the Bicentennial Art Exhibit on display there. Roy Gentry will perform.


Alessandro di Mariano di Vanni Filipepi was originally from Florence, Italy, born around the year 1445 and is most commonly known as Sandro Botticelli. During this period, his hometown was overflowing with artists and intellectuals. Florence was building a reputation of celebrating the work of writers, philosophers, and visual artists, resulting in a large number of people immigrating from other parts of Europe. After a period of what some historians call dark times, peace and tranquility began to uprise. The Early Renaissance marked the start of one of the most famous and beloved Eras of the art world.
As a young boy in school, Botticelli was already gifted in the art of drawing and enjoyed to play practical jokes on his friends. Determined to become an artist, he dropped out of school at fourteen to dedicate himself to studying art. At about 1461, Botticelli's skill led him to learn under one of the most important painters of the time, Fra Filippo Lippi, who worked for the most wealthy family of Florence and the main patron of the arts, the Medicis. Through Lippi, the young apprentice learned many drawing and painting skills and techniques, including the art of fresco painting, considered the most difficult painting technique to accomplish, which consists of painting with pigments on wet plaster. Botticelli began his own art studio and workshop at only fifteen. It was through Lippi that Botticelli met the Head of the Medici Family, Cosimo de Medici, who became his main patron. The artist thrived under his patronage, creating breathtaking religious paintings and some artwork portraying mythological themes as well.
It is known that Botticelli was against marriage and never tied the knot in his lifetime. In spite of that, art historians have speculated about a possible love interest: Simonetta Vespucci, a noblewoman known for her beauty and who tragically died at the young age of 22. Botticelli painted a couple of portraits of Vespucci, including Portrait of a Young Woman, but throughout the artist's career, she seems to appear as other characters in his work. Vespucci was Botticelli's muse and can be seen as Flora in The Birth of Venus (some say even Venus herself), or as one of the Three Graces in La Primavera, both artworks located in Uffizi. Along with Venus and Mars and Pallas and the Centaur, La Primavera and The Birth of Venus are the most iconic works of the Early Renaissance and have been studied and analyzed countless times by art historians. The Renaissance era thrived by renewing classical ancient Greek mythology.
Botticelli's prime came by his thirties, and in 1481 he was commissioned to conclude one of his most prestigious works; Pope Sixtus IV summoned him to paint frescos in the newly built Sistine Chapel - about thirty years before Michelangelo painted the ceiling. There the artist painted beautiful religious works like Scene from the Life of Moses and The Temptation of Christ. By Botticelli's mid-life, Florence wasn't as peaceful as before, as it was taken by plagues as well as invasions. Because of the tumultuous situation, the Medici family were eventually expelled, leaving Botticelli without his patrons. Girolamo Savonarola, an intensely moralistic preacher, came to power and had a significant influence on Botticelli's paintings, as he followed Savonarola's ideals. By the end of his career, the Renaissance painter saw his work become less popular, until the point where he became virtually unknown. During the last year of his production, Botticelli was depicting expressive and distorted figures and experimenting with non-natural colors, which some historians link to early Mannerism. Botticelli passed away on May 1510 in Florence, and the importance of his art was rediscovered only by the late XIX century.


We all want a natural and glowing complexion. Nobody wants lines or wrinkles, or age spots or blemishes. This is evidenced by the amount of dollars spent every year on cosmetics and miracle creams and lotions. While the cosmetic industry would like you to believe that their product is the "one that works", you can spend a lot of money finding one that truly benefits your particular skin type.
I know that when I walk into a store and shop for a skin care product, I am usually overwhelmed at the selection and the prices. I read the label and read their claims of "no more wrinkles" and "dramatically reduces the signs of aging", etc., then I usually question if it really works. I don't want to spend upwards of $30 and not see any improvement in my skin.
With that in mind, I set out to find a better and more cost effective skin care program. I have come to the conclusion that homemade skin care is an inexpensive alternative. In addition, homemade skin care really works and as an added benefit, no animal testing involved!
Skin care recipes are easily customizable for each skin type. For instance, an oily complexion may want to add a little witch hazel (for its drying properties) to their toner mixture, whereas a dry skin type may add just a bit of Jasmine (moisturizes dry, stressed and sensitive skins and also helps to increase elasticity). The same theory applies to creating your moisturizers and exfoliation treatments. Each recipe is custom made to your liking. In addition the fragrances you decide to choose or blend are truly unique for you taste.
Some common ingredients used in skin are almond oil, aloe vera, chamomile and green tea. Each of these ingredients brings with them unique characteristics. For example almond oil is a wonderful vegetable oil for dry skin. It is used as a carrier oil to blend with other essentials oils. In addition it is easily absorbed into the skin and is an excellent emollient. Aloe Vera stimulates skin cell regeneration and is also known for it healing properties. Chamomile tones all types of complexions. The anti-inflammatory effect of the essential oil applied topically improves skin regeneration, and a cold compress does wonders for puffy eyes. Chamomile is used in facial steams to reduce puffiness and cleanse the pores of the skin. Green tea a powerful antioxidant and a potent anti-inflammatory agent thereby reducing inflammation in the skin.
Below is a facial mask recipe for both dry and oily skin types.
Scoop out the flesh of the avocado and mash to form a smooth paste. Apply to face and leave on 10 to 15 minutes. Soften with warm water and wipe clean. Pat face dry and follow with your choice of toner and moisturizer.
Properties of avocado are: moisturizes, reduces appearance of age spots, heals sun damage and scars. Regenerates and rejuvenates the skin. Additionally, avocado increases collagen in the skin thus great for aging skin and has superior moisturizing qualities.


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BMC Geriatrics
Capability and dependency in the Newcastle 85+ cohort study. Projections of future care needs
Carol Jagger1,
Joanna C Collerton1,
Karen Davies1,
Andrew Kingston1,
Louise A Robinson1,2,
Martin P Eccles1,2,
Thomas von Zglinicki1,
Carmen Martin-Ruiz1,
Oliver FW James1,
Tom BL Kirkwood1 &
John Bond1,2
BMC Geriatricsvolume 11, Article number: 21 (2011) | Download Citation
Little is known of the capabilities of the oldest old, the fastest growing age group in the population. We aimed to estimate capability and dependency in a cohort of 85 year olds and to project future demand for care.
Structured interviews at age 85 with 841 people born in 1921 and living in Newcastle and North Tyneside, UK who were permanently registered with participating general practices. Measures of capability included were self-reported activities of daily living (ADL), timed up and go test (TUG), standardised mini-mental state examination (SMMSE), and assessment of urinary continence in order to classify interval-need dependency. To project future demand for care the proportion needing 24-hour care was applied to the 2008 England and Wales population projections of those aged 80 years and over by gender.
Of participants, 62% (522/841) were women, 77% (651/841) lived in standard housing, 13% (106/841) in sheltered housing and 10% (84/841) in a care home. Overall, 20% (165/841) reported no difficulty with any of the ADLs. Men were more capable in performing ADLs and more independent than women. TUG validated self-reported ADLs. When classified by 'interval of need' 41% (332/810) were independent, 39% (317/810) required help less often than daily, 12% (94/810) required help at regular times of the day and 8% (67/810) required 24-hour care. Of care-home residents, 94% (77/82) required daily help or 24-hour care. Future need for 24-hour care for people aged 80 years or over in England and Wales is projected to increase by 82% from 2010 to 2030 with a demand for 630,000 care-home places by 2030.
This analysis highlights the diversity of capability and levels of dependency in this cohort. A remarkably high proportion remain independent, particularly men. However a significant proportion of this population require 24-hour care at home or in care homes. Projections for the next 20 years suggest substantial increases in the number requiring 24-hour care due to population ageing and a proportionate increase in demand for care-home places unless innovative health and social care interventions are found.
People aged 85 years or over (the so-called oldest-old) constitute the fastest growing age-group within the population [1]. A concern is that increasing life extension will be accompanied by higher levels of disease which translate into disability, dependency and increasing demands for health and social care services. Severity of disability as measured by restrictions in self-reported Activities of Daily Living (ADLs), likelihood of cognitive impairment, and of being dependent on formal and informal support all increase with age [2]. Nowadays the highest proportion of dependent older people are aged 80 or over [2]. However, increasing longevity does not necessarily result in very high levels of disability and dependency because of the high levels of mortality among the most disabled or dependent at any given time [3].
In Europe and North America a handful of studies have begun to document the changing disability and dependency profiles of the oldest old [4–11]. Such profiles have been used in planning health and social care provision and the projection of future needs for services [12–14].
In the UK and many other European countries there is universal free health care for dependent older people [15]. Long-term care has long been provided at home by families and informal carers while the proportion of people aged 65 or over resident in long-term care institutions has remained at around 5% for the last 50 years despite demographic changes [15]. Recent years have shown a diversification of different types of assisted living facilities such as sheltered housing in the UK where older people live in specially adapted housing but are supported by home-based services and receive regular visits from a warden [15]. For ageing populations world wide a key challenge will be the projected decline in the traditional sources of formal and informal carers to support people living at home and in long-term residential or nursing home care [16].
This paper complements existing investigations of the oldest old and uses baseline data from the Newcastle 85+ study [17] to describe the capability and dependency of 85 year olds living in north east England and to predict the future need for formal and informal support in England and Wales.
The target population for the Newcastle 85+ Study was all surviving adults born in 1921, who turned 85 in 2006 when the study commenced, and permanently registered with a participating general practice in Newcastle or North Tyneside NHS Primary Care Trusts in north east England. Full details of the design of the study and recruitment of participants have been reported [17–19]. The study was approved by the Newcastle and North Tyneside 1 research ethics committee (Ref: 06/Q0905/2).
Participation entailed a detailed multidimensional health assessment and review of general practice medical records; participants could decline elements of the protocol. Trained research nurses interviewed participants in their usual residence (own home or institution). Written informed consent was obtained from participants. Where people lacked capacity to consent an opinion was sought from a relative or carer (a "consultee") according to the requirements of the UK Mental Capacity Act. A consultee opinion was also obtained if a participant was initially judged to have capacity to consent but subsequently scored below 17 on the Standardised Mini-Mental State Examination (SMMSE) [20]. Proxy informants were used in interviews where cognitive impairment was judged to limit the ability of participants to provide reliable answers. Information collected included: basic socio-demography (gender, type of housing and household composition); cognitive status assessed by the SMMSE; continence status graded on a combination of frequency and severity of urinary symptoms [21]; and self-reported ability to perform 17 Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) (Table 1). Participants, who received help with ADLs were also asked who provided the help and how often help was received. Participants also performed a timed up and go (TUG) test [22]; the time taken to rise from a standard chair, walk 3 metres, turn, walk back and sit down was recorded. Information on diseases was collected from a review of GP records; data was extracted by research nurses. Further details of the interview schedules used in the study are available at: http://www.ncl.ac.uk/iah/research/programmes/85plus.htm
Table 1 Self-reported activities of daily living§
Capability of participants was based on ability to undertake ADLs. Dependency was estimated using Isaacs' and Neville's concept of 'interval of need', which classifies people on the basis of their cognitive status, continence status and the lapsed time between periods when participants require help with ADLs [23]. Four categories were used: independent (participants for whom supervision or help for any activity was not essential); long-interval dependency (required help less often than daily); short-interval dependency (required help at regular intervals each day) and critical-interval dependency (required 24-hour care since help required potentially at any time or participant required constant supervision). Participants were allocated to categories in the following way: critical interval - having a SMMSE score of less than 10, or having severe or profound urinary incontinence with inability to dress or undress without help, or unable to perform, without help, any of: getting on and off the toilet, or getting in and out of a chair, or feeding oneself; short interval - unable to perform, without help, any of: getting in and out of bed, dressing and undressing, preparing and cooking a hot meal, taking medication or washing face and hands; long interval - unable to perform, without help, any of: washing all over, shopping for groceries, light housework, heavy housework, managing money or cutting own toenails. The remainder were defined as independent. Participants were classified as missing for this variable only if they could not be unequivocally categorised.
Health and social care service use was ascertained by self-report and from information extracted from general practice records by the research nurses (Table 2).
Table 2 Health and social care services
As the TUG test is a more objective measure of physical function we validated participants' self-report of ability in mobility items (getting around the house, getting in and out of a chair, shopping, going up and down stairs, walking at least 400 yards) by comparing the median time to completion and proportion unable to complete the TUG test by response category for each mobility item and separately by gender. Individual responses to ADL items were compared between genders by Mann-Whitney (M-W) tests. Socio-demographic inequalities in interval-need dependency were examined using Kruskall-Wallis (K-W) tests (P values were two sided) and polytomous regression models with adjustment for gender and number of chronic diseases (disease count [17]), the latter being a proxy for disease burden. Polytomous regression models with adjustment for gender were also used to explore the association between interval-need dependency and health and social care service use with significance assessed by the Wald Chi-squared (Wald χ2). In general we excluded missing values from the analysis and calculated percentages from the number of valid responses. Where individual items were missing within the SMMSE we compared scoring the missing item as zero or the maximum possible for that item with data retained only if a participant was classified in the same category (<10, 10+) in either case. We used version 1.2 of the data set.
To assess the potential future dependency needs of an ageing population we assumed that 85 year olds, and their dependency levels, were an estimate for the national (England and Wales) population aged 80 years and over. This assumption was reasonable for two reasons. Firstly 85 is the average age of the 80 years and over age group as the median age of this age group from the population projections varied from 84.9 years (men: 84.3 years, women: 85.2 years) in 2010 to 85.4 years (men: 85.1 years, women: 85.6 years) in 2030 [24]. Secondly the prevalence of dependency in very old cohorts appears to be relatively constant as they age further due to the increased mortality in the most dependent[25]. Therefore we applied the proportions in the interval-need-dependency groups by gender for our population of 85 year olds to the 2008-based population projections through to 2030 for men and women separately [24].
In total 1042 participants were recruited to the Newcastle 85+ study (71.7% of those eligible and alive); health assessment data were available on 852 participants of whom 841 (98.7%, 319 men, 522 women) had complete information on all 17 ADLs and formed the study population for analysis (Figure 1). As reported elsewhere, participants were broadly representative of people of this age in England and Wales in terms of gender, being resident in care homes and living alone [17].
Recruitment profile for the Newcastle 85+ Study.
Sociodemographics
Of the 841 participants for whom complete information on ADLs were available, 77% (651/841) lived in standard housing, 13% (106/841) in sheltered accommodation and 10% (84/841) in a care home (data not shown).
Self-reported capability to perform activities of daily living
Participants alone provided self-report of capability in daily activities in 84% (706/841) of cases with proxy informants also contributing in a further 12% (105/841) and for 4% (30/841) proxy informants alone provided information. Over 90% of men and women could feed themselves (792/841) and wash their face and hands (789/841) without difficulty whilst cutting toenails was the activity with which most men and women had difficulty; only 31% (160/522) of women and 41% (131/319) of men could do this without difficulty (Table 3). Women were significantly more likely than men to be limited in 13 of the 17 ADLs (feeding self, getting in and out of bed, getting on and off the toilet, taking medication, getting around in the house, preparing and cooking hot meal, managing money, washing all over, doing heavy housework, shopping for groceries, going up and down stairs, walking at least 400 yards, and cutting own toenails). Self-report of ability to perform the activities concerned predominantly with lower limb mobility was strongly related to the ability to complete and the time taken to complete the timed up and go test (Table 4) thus validating the self-reports.
Table 3 Capability and restriction in activities of daily living, by sex.
Table 4 Median time in seconds to complete timed up and go (TUG) test and proportion unable to complete, by mobility item response and gender.
Cognitive status
Using an SMMSE cut-point of ≤ 21, 13% (105/836) were moderately or severely cognitively impaired; 3% (25/836) scored < 10.
Interval-need dependency
Of the 841 participants with complete data on ADLs, 31 (9 men, 22 women) had missing data on continence or SMMSE and therefore could not be classified for interval-need dependency. When classified by interval-need dependency, 41% (332/810) were independent; 39% (317/810) were long-interval dependent requiring help less than daily; 12% (94/810) were short-interval dependent requiring help at regular intervals every day and only 8% (67/810) of the cohort were critical-interval dependent requiring 24-hour care (Table 5). Of those in care homes, 61% (50/82) required 24-hour care (critical-interval) and a further 33% (27/82) required help at regular intervals throughout the day (short-interval) (Table 5). Women required care at significantly shorter intervals than men (M-W, P < 0.0001). Of those classified as critical-interval dependent, 75% (50/67) lived in a care home and for the remainder the main provider of help was a child (47%, 8/17), social services (35%, 6/17) or a spouse (18%, 3/17). For those living at home with short-interval dependency the main provider of help was a spouse (34%, 23/67), a child (31%, 21/67) or social services (22%, 15/67) whilst the majority of help for those living at home with long-interval dependency was provided by a child (37%, 115/313) (Table 5). Non-institutionalised participants who lived with others (but not solely a spouse) required care more frequently (K-W, χ2 = 8.482; P = 0.014) and differences remained after adjustment for gender and number of chronic diseases (Table 6).
Table 5 Interval-need dependency, by socio-demographics and main provider of help with daily activities.
Table 6 Regression models of interval-need dependency by sociodemographics.
The self-reported frequency of help received validated the interval-need dependency classifications. The majority of participants classified as critical-interval dependent received help several times a day with dressing or undressing (79%, 53/67), taking medication (79%, 53/67) and toileting (70%, 47/67). Those classified as long-interval dependent that required help less than daily did so mostly because they needed help with heavy housework (7.6%, 24/317).
Health and social care service use
Participants with higher levels of interval-need dependency were more likely to have used health services (Table 7).
Table 7 Use of health and social care services, by interval-need dependency group.
Health service use
For participants living at home and in care homes, higher levels of interval-need dependency were significantly associated with: hospital admission, use of respite care, use of intermediate care other than day hospital and use of an out of hours doctor service in the previous year; use of an emergency ambulance and attendance at 'accident and emergency', in the previous 3 months; community nurse contact or use of NHS or private chiropody services, in the previous 4 weeks. Participants with higher levels of interval-need dependency were significantly less likely to have consulted a practice nurse in the previous year. When adjusted for the effect of gender, only hospital admission (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.29, 95% Confidence Interval [95%CI] [1.16 to 1.44]), the use of respite care (OR 1.22, 95% CI [1.16 to 1.28]) in previous year, and use of chiropody (OR 1.36, 95% CI [1.22 to 1.52]) in previous 4 weeks suggested a strong association with critical-interval dependency. Only use of respite care (OR 1.20, 95% CI [1.15 to 1.26]) in previous year showed a strong association with short-interval dependency. Furthermore, those in the critically dependent group who received respite care in the 12 months before interview (n = 10) were compared with those who had not received respite care (n = 41) in terms of participant characteristics (gender, marital status, living arrangements) and carer characteristics (relationship to participant). No significant differences were found between the groups for gender, marital status or living arrangements. However more who received respite care had a child as the main carer (87% v 27%, p = 0.02) though these results should be viewed with caution due to small numbers. Less than 4% of participants had had any contact in the previous 4 weeks with a physiotherapist (27/808), occupational therapist (14/808), speech therapist (5/808), or dietician (8/808); use of these services by dependency group was not explored.
Social care service use
For participants living at home, higher levels of interval-need dependency were significantly associated with contact with home-care services in the previous 4 weeks, differences remaining after adjustment for gender (OR 1.92, 95% CI [1.61 to 2.29], critical-interval dependency). For participants living at home, only 7% (48/724) reported receiving any meals service in the previous 4 weeks and less than 4% reported any contact in the previous 4 weeks with a night attendant (3/724) or day sitter (8/725). For participants living at home or in an institution, less than 4% (32/804) reported any contact with a social worker in the previous four weeks. Use of these services by dependency group was therefore not explored.
Future projections
Assuming that the proportions of 85 year olds in each interval-need dependency category remain constant and are an estimate for the 80+ population, the numbers in England and Wales with critical-interval dependency, requiring help potentially at any time of the day or night, are projected to rise by 82% between 2010 to 2030, from 216,000 to 392,000 (Figure 2) and those with short-interval dependency by 83% from 303,000 to 553,000. The number of people aged 80 or over who remain independent is projected to rise by 94% from 1,057,000 to 2,047,000. Assuming that the balance between home-based care and institutional care for people with short or critical-interval dependency remains constant then the number of care-home places required in 2030 in England and Wales is projected to be 630,000.
Projected numbers (thousands) in England and Wales aged 80+ with categories of interval-need dependency.
Despite considerable morbidity [17], people aged 85 years born in 1921 living in Newcastle and North Tyneside in the UK are remarkably independent. Using Isaacs' and Neville's [23] concept of interval need we estimate that about two-fifths of this age cohort are independent, two-fifths were long-interval dependent requiring help less often than daily, around one-in-ten were short-interval dependent requiring help at regular times of the day) and under one-in-ten were critical-interval dependent requiring 24-care by formal and informal carers. Men were estimated to be more independent than women (58% compared with 31%). This reflected gender differences in the need for help with activities of daily living (see Table 3). Not surprisingly residents in care homes were more dependent even after adjusting for gender and disease compared with participants living at home or in sheltered accommodation (see Table 6). Of those not resident in care homes, two-fifths of participants received no help with activities of daily living; for two-fifths the reported main helper was a family member, friend or neighbour and in only one fifth was the main helper a formal carer (see Table 5). We estimate that the number of people aged 80 years or over in England and Wales who are independent will increase by 94% from 2010 to 2030. We estimate similar increases in this period for the number of people aged 80 years or over who are long-interval (79%), short-interval (83%) and critical-interval (82%) dependent. Three-quarters of study participants with critical-interval dependency and almost a third of those with short-interval dependency were living in care homes. Assuming constant prevalence of interval-need dependency and that the balance of care homes to other ways of supporting dependent older people also remains constant, these estimates would imply that there will be an 89% increase in the demand for residential and nursing home places over the same period.
The so-called oldest old (generally defined as people aged 85 years or over) have been poorly represented in ageing research. Data about the very old are routinely based on relatively small sample sizes because of the relatively small numbers of people aged 85 years or over sampled from populations of people aged 60 or 65 years and over, which is compounded by attrition and non-response [26–28]. The oldest old represent an extremely heterogeneous age group covering 20 years or more of the observed lifespan making generalisations about this age group particularly problematic. Narrow age-band cohort studies of very old people more readily reflect the true diversity within the population than those of wider age-band cohorts that are confounded by the differential effects of increasing age. The Newcastle 85+ study is one of a small number of studies that have the advantage of a relatively homogeneous and stable study population, of sufficient size and that recruited both participants living at home and in long-term care institutions including people with cognitive impairment. The challenges of researching very old people in terms of the reliability and internal validity of self-reported data [29, 30], however, remain. Non-response bias, however, that would normally impact on population estimates of care need, surprisingly, does not appear to reflect institutionalisation and increasing disability and dependency [17]. Caveats about the external validity of estimates based on a single urban area should be highlighted. However, our study population of people born in 1921 shows remarkable similarity to the England and Wales population [17]. This includes ethnicity since projections based on the 2001 national census suggest that only 1.6% of the population aged 80 years and over in 2006 was non-White and this will increase little, to 3.6%, by 2030 [31]. A strength of the Newcastle 85+ study is the diversity of types of data collected (self-reports, proxy reports, clinical measurement) and sources of data (structured interviews, clinical records) that allow comparisons between estimates that use different methods of data collection and sources of data. Appropriate resources and considerable effort were also used to ensure that high quality data were captured [17–19].
Our estimates of the levels of ability to undertake ADLs and interval-need dependency in this age group are consistent with the trends observed in other studies [2, 4, 5, 7, 9–11]. Nowadays, older people in at least some countries, are more independent than in previous generations [25, 32, 33], reflecting the shifting of the burden of chronic illness and disability to later chronological ages. This suggests a rather more optimistic future for people turning 85 and challenges the idea that increasing longevity and life expectancy of successive generations of older people should always be treated with alarm. However, evidence for declining levels of disability is mixed, a comparison of the trends in the prevalence of severe disability in older people in twelve OECD countries concluded that only five countries (Denmark, Finland, Italy, the Netherlands, United States) showed clear evidence of a decline in disability whilst three (Belgium, Japan, Sweden) showed clear increases, two (Australia, Canada) stability and a further two (France and the UK) differing trends depending on the data source [34].
Despite the optimistic scenarios that shift the impact of disability and dependency to later chronological ages, the projected increase in the demand for health and social care services remains a considerable concern for politicians and policy makers and society as a whole, particularly in light of the projected decline in availability of formal and informal carers. It will also have significant implications for the skills training of both qualified and unqualified personnel particularly in relation to the care of people with cognitive impairment. The planning of health and social care services is a major challenge, since forecasting future demand is an inexact science. Future demand is influenced not only by demographic change and the capability and dependency of the older population. The nature of the health and social care systems, the changing structure of social support networks, technological innovations and policy, reflecting the changing attitudes to supporting older people and the use of scarce societal resources, will also influence projections. For this reason we have made a number of gross assumptions in estimating the impact of future levels of capability and dependency. Our assumption of constant prevalence of interval-need dependency is conservative for the UK, and indeed more generally [34]. We accept that our projections are relatively imprecise. However the challenge of population ageing is of a sufficient magnitude to justify attempting these projections.
The significance of this study is that it highlights the increasing capability of the oldest old but also provides policy makers with robust data and estimates of need about the increasing numbers of very old people around the age to which more than half the population nowadays are expected to survive. Even without the impact of global economic recession on levels of public expenditure the current ways of delivering long-term care are probably unsustainable given the future decline in the number of working-age adults available for employment in the long-term care sector [35]. Innovative solutions to this challenge, involving families and community support networks that utilise the increasing pool of active and capable retired people will be needed to maintain levels of independence among the oldest old and provide appropriate long-term support for those who require 24-hour care or at least regular daily care.
ADL:
K-W:
Kruskall-Wallis
GARS:
Groningen Activity Restriction Scale
M-W:
Mann-Whitney
NHS:
SMMSE:
Standardised Mini-Mental State Examination
TUG:
Timed up and go test
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Collerton J, Barrass K, Bond J, Eccles M, Jagger C, James O, Martin-Ruiz C, Robinson AL, Von Zglinicki T, Kirkwood T: The Newcastle 85+ Study: biological, clinical and psychosocial factors associated with health ageing: study protocol. BMC Geriatr. 2007, 7: 14-10.1186/1471-2318-7-14.
Davies K, Collerton JC, Jagger C, Bond J, Barker SAH, Edwards J, Hughes J, Hunt JM, Robinson AL: Engaging the oldest old in research: lessons from the Newcastle 85+ study. BMC Geriatr. 2010, 10 (64):
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Chatfield M: A systematic literature review of attrition between waves in longitudinal studies in the elderly shows a consistent pattern of dropout between differing studies. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology. 2005, 58: 13-19. 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2004.05.006.
Bhamra S, Tinker A, Mein G, Ashcroft R, Askham J: The retention of older people in longitudinal studies: a review of the literature. Quality in Ageing. 2008, 9 (4): 27-35.
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Wohland P, Rees P, Norman P, Boden P, Jasinska M: Ethnic population projections for the UK and local areas, 2001-2051. Working Paper 10/02. 2010, School of Geography, University of Leeds
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The pre-publication history for this paper can be accessed here:http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2318/11/21/prepub
The baseline phase of the Newcastle 85+ Study was supported by a joint grant from the Medical Research Council and the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (reference G0500997) and the Newcastle Healthcare Charity. We appreciate the support of Newcastle and North Tyneside Primary Care Trusts and local general practices. We are grateful to Professor Julian C. Hughes and Newcastle and North Tyneside 1 Research Ethics Committee for their guidance around consent. We thank the research nurses: (Brenda Balderson, Sally Barker, Julie Burrows, June Edwards, Julie Ferguson, Gill Hedley, Joan Hughes, Judith Hunt, Julie Kimber, and Victoria Raynor); data manager (Pauline Potts), and project secretary (Lucy Farfort). Thanks are especially due to the 85 year olds of Newcastle and North Tyneside for the generous donation of their time and personal information to make the study possible.
Institute for Ageing and Health, Newcastle University, Campus for Ageing and Vitality, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE4 5PL, UK
Carol Jagger
, Joanna C Collerton
, Karen Davies
, Andrew Kingston
, Louise A Robinson
, Martin P Eccles
, Thomas von Zglinicki
, Carmen Martin-Ruiz
, Oliver FW James
, Tom BL Kirkwood
& John Bond
Institute of Health and Society, Newcastle University, Baddiley-Clarke Building, Richardson Road, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE2 4AX, UK
Louise A Robinson
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Correspondence to John Bond.
CJ participated in the study design, analysis and interpretation, the conception and writing of the paper; JC participated in the study design and its execution, data collection, data preparation, analysis and interpretation, and the conception and critique of the paper; KD participated in the study design and its execution, data collection, data preparation and critique of the paper; AK participated in the analysis and interpretation, and critique of the paper; LAR participated in recruitment, analysis and critique of the paper; MPE participated in the study design, analysis and critique of the paper; TvZ participated in the study design and critique of the paper; CM-R participated in the study set up and critique of the paper; OFWJ participated in the study design, analysis and critique of the paper; TBLK conceived the study, secured funding, and oversaw all aspects as lead investigator. He participated in the study design and its execution, analysis and critique of the paper; JB participated in the study design, analysis and interpretation, the conception and writing of the paper. CJ and JB are the guarantors. All authors saw and approved the final manuscript, had full access to all of the data (including statistical reports and tables) in the study, and can take responsibility for the integrity of the data, data analysis and its interpretation. All authors read and approved the final draft.
Carol Jagger, Joanna C Collerton and John Bond contributed equally to this work.
Informal Carer
Social Care Service


With the help of the RAAF Museum in Point Cook, Australia and the Smithsonian's Paul E. Garber Facility in Suitland, Maryland we've been able to eliminate the Tachikawa Ki-54 as a candidate for the aircraft in the photo. The Lockheed Model 10 equipped with the Pratt & Whitney R1340 engine is now left as the only known type which features all of the structural elements visible on the wreck. The type of damage exhibited, details of the environment, and even the existence of a photograph, correspond well with anecdotal accounts of aircraft wreckage seen on Nikumaroro which are corroborated by forensic imaging of aerial photos of the island which appear to indicate the presence of metal debris in a specific location. Based upon what we know at this time, this could be a picture of NR16020 on Nikumaroro.
Various hypotheses about who took the picture and how it was that the wreck was never linked with the Earhart disappearance are being tested. The possibility that the photo was taken by a crew member of USS Swan during a visit in 1942 is being researched by Ron Dawson #2126. The chance that surviving members of the New Zealand survey party, who were on the island in late 1938 and early 1939, have recollections which may be of help is being checked out by researchers in New Zealand.


New work is under way for an exhibition as one of a trio of artists '3 Strand', exhibiting from 21st February 2015 at The Ropewalk. Using industrialisation as the theme Moira is excited to be working with a more muted range of colours and some exciting original metal fibre.
To receive a preview invite send an email with your contact details before 21st January 2015.
Some of the text published at the Sam Scorer Gallery about Moira's work.
Moira West's recent explorations encompass layering techniques and expanding bonding fibres using wet felting. She has a reputation for integrating natural fibres which include plant, cellulose and animal hair as well as man-made materials. A dislike of waste has also encouraged her to reuse items and fabrics within her art but she is also more than happy to use new materials such as metal fabrics.
Many of Moira's pieces are ultimately about combining materials to add structure and strength. Human frailty informs and inspires as does nature, the wider world and the possibilities of the human mind.
Encouraging touch allows others to interact and bring their own interpretations. Sometimes this impacts on the piece but Moira encourages rather than discourages as she feels this enhances the effects of the work.
The gallery labels are now ready and all that remains to be done is the publicity for her solo in August at the Sam Scorer Gallery, Lincoln. Printed gallery signs, flyers and postcards are ready for collection leaving images of work to be selected for printed leaflets which will be available for gallery visitors. Moira can then turn her thoughts to the mass of materials which will be used to create new work for her next challenge – the Ropewalk exhibition starting February 2015.
The tactile qualities of 41 pieces are ready for inspection by interested parties all of whom will be invited to enjoy themselves whilst inspecting the work.
Despite a delay to the start of the years work Moira is now immersed in completing work for her solo in August. Acrylic sheet and aluminium composite panels have been delivered as she anticipates completing six pieces of 2D work. Several 3D pieces have already been boxed up and only require gallery labels.


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19 Of Drake's Best R&B Love Songs
Here's our rundown of the best Drake R&B songs - from upbeat collaborations with Rihanna and PARTYNEXTDOOR, to slow jams that will have you in your feelings.
Since Drake exploded onto the scene in 2009, he has put most artists to shame with his unrivalled ability to deliver hit song after hit song.
But within Drake's discography is a consistent stream of R&B anthems that rival songs by actual R&B artists – ranging from slow jams to upbeat hits.
Press play below on Drake's biggest R&B songs from 'Hotline Bling' to 'Marvin's Room':
Drake - 'Hotline Bling'
Drake took over the world with his smooth melodies and hilarious dance moves when he dropped the video for his hit single 'Hotline Bling'.
Drake - 'Days In The East'
Rumoured to be about his relationship with Rihanna, Drake opened up about his feelings in an emotional slow jam.
Drake - 'Find Your Love'
A fresh-faced Drake linked up with Kanye West for an R&B anthem from his debut album 'Thank Me Later'.
Drake - 'I Get Lonely Too'
Drake sparked rumours of a R&B-only mixtape when he dropped the amazing song 'I Get Lonely Too' back in 2010.
Drake - 'Marvin's Room'
Back in 2011 Drake released a song so personal it actually got him sued by one of his ex-girlfriends. This is a classic!
Drake Feat. Rihanna - 'Take Care'
Dizzy linked up with his on-off girlfriend Rihanna for the second time on his huge single 'Take Care'.
Drake Feat. Lil Wayne & Andre 3000 - 'The Real Her'
Taken from his classic album 'Take Care', Drake slowed it down to serenade a special lady alongside Lil Wayne and Andre 3000.
Drake - 'Trust Issues'
Drake showed his vulnerable side on a reworked R&B version of DJ Khaled's single 'I'm On One'.
Drake Feat. Majid Jordan - 'Hold On, We're Going Home'
In an attempt to make a wedding song, Drake stumbled on another hit single - this time with OVO duo Majid Jordan.
Drake Feat. James Fauntleroy - 'Girls Love Beyonce'
In a spree of random song releases in 2014, Drake unleashed an R&B masterpiece alongside James Fauntleroy.
Drake - 'Jungle'
Despite releasing his rap-heavy mixtape 'If You're Reading This Its Too Late', Drake still found space for an R&B gem.
Drake - 'Feel No Ways'
Lifted from Drake's record-breaking fourth album 'Views', Drizzy showed off his silky vocals over a smooth beat.
Drake - 'Cameras/Good Ones Go'
One of the standout tracks from 'Take Care', saw Drake brag over a bouncy track before slowing it down for introspective slow jam.
Drake Feat. Sampha - 'The Motion'
Although Drake's 'The Motion' was only a bonus track on his 2013 album 'Nothing Was The Same', it was definitely a standout.
Drake - 'Karaoke'
Drake admitted that he lost out on a girl he wanted to marry in the soulful 'Karaoke'.
Drake Feat. PARTYNEXTDOOR - 'Preach'
Drizzy linked up with frequent collaborator PARTYNEXTDOOR on a big track from 'If You're Reading This Its Too Late'.
Drake - 'Club Paradise'
Drake released fan-favourite 'Club Paradise' back in 2011.
Drake - 'Redemption'
Drake reminisced over past relationships on the soulful 'Redemption'.
Drake - 'Best I Ever Had'
Back in 2010, Drake announced himself to the world with an R&B classic.


After reviewing the submitted Transport Assessment (Supporting Documents-3222075 FINAL TRANSPORT ASSESSMENT.pdf), we are highly concerned with its inaccuracies and how it deliberately understates the potential impact on traffic on Fortune Green Road. The report contains a number of assumptions which understate both the number of cars travelling to the site and impact they would have on traffic. These are discussed in Appendix 1. As per paragraph 7.10.1 in the Transport Assessment, the school site is open from 8 am with a start time/registration of 8:45 am. This means that in less than 45 minutes all parents dropping off children need to enter the site. Per table 7.4.8 in the report 38 pupils will use individual cars and 16 will car-share, totalling 44 car trips each morning and each afternoon (see Appendix 2) This means that average one car every minute needs to be entering the site at the bottleneck at the gates (where it is difficult for standard size cars to pass each other), swing around into the courtyard, stopping for the car in front, once the traffic light turns green needs to dive down the single lane ramp (avoiding children being walked across the mouth of the ramp in order to get to the Southern classrooms), turn 180 degrees at the bottom of the ramp, manoeuvre past cars waiting to come up, dodge children already in the car park being walked to the exit (there are no pedestrian walkways children will be walking in the path of vehicles), park up, unload their children, and then join the queue to leave the car park, then once up and out, join the queue to turn right out of the site and onto Fortune Green Road. This is absolutely unworkable. In the likely situation that there are queues to exit the site leading to a backup, chaos would ensue. There would be nowhere to go. The ramp would be blocked, leaving cars stranded in the car park and the entrance to the site full, leading to tailbacks on Fortune Green Road. This is using the calculated trip numbers as assumed in report, which is based on a school extremely close to a tube station, unlike Fortune Green. Using the trip profile of Abercorn School itself produces 62 cars each morning from parents (Appendix 2). Add to this the increased distance from homes increasing the probability of cars being used as well as the car usage by residents and the staff member and the numbers are unsupportable. As explained in Appendix 3 the Daily car trip rates and car trip generation profile of trips to and from the site during the day can be ignored as it is nonsense.
Assuming 100% occupancy at the school and all pupils arrived within a single hour, in the AM peak, there would be a maximum of 50 inbound car trips (45 for the school plus 5 for residents) compared to 19 in the permission. The TRICS analysis in 7. (Authors note: the report incorrectly refers to table 7.10 rather than 7.11) indicates that in reality car trip generation in the peak hours would be less than this.
We have shown why the 45 inbound trips (44 student cars and 1 teachers car) are very likely to be an underestimation. We have shown that the TRICS analysis in nonsensical and common sense tells us that all trips will be between the opening time of 8 a.m. and registration time of 8:45 a.m. Therefore the inbound car trips exceeds the maximum of 19 as per the permission in Table 7.2 Consented Use Vehicle Trip Generation from the Colin Buchanan TA 2003.
The entrance, courtyard and car park at the site are not designed to cope with heavy levels of traffic nor pedestrians. The entrance to the site is narrow; when the gates are open they swing inwards, and they naturally reduce the width of the road, and two family-size vehicles going in opposite directions would have difficulty passing each other at this point. The application fails to make explicit and prominent the fact that the ramp to the car park is a single-lane only. This significantly restricts efficiency of movement. The car park itself is cramped. Two of the proposed parking spaces for the school are said to be unusable due to the angles of entry required. There are no designated pathways for pedestrians. Children walking from the designated parking up to the other side of the car park to their designated exit will be walking into oncoming traffic. The impact of this additional traffic and exhaust fumes in the car park has not been assessed at all and obviously could have a negative impact on the health of the students, residents and especially the school staff who will have to spend extended periods of time in the car park. The intention is also that students are brought from the car park up into the north unit and those that are based in the south units will be walked across the courtyard, across the path of cars entering and exiting the car park. This is considered to be a very dangerous proposal, especially as exiting drivers will be able to see pedestrians only once they are directly in the path of the car!
Figure 2: View from half way up the ramp. The fire exits in the wall opposite are the proposed entrance to the southern units. Note the wall on the left which completely obscures the view of any pedestrians looking to cross in front of the path of traffic and into the doors.
Figure 3: This is where the walkway from the north unit exits into the courtyard. Note that directly in front of it is a parking space for service vehicles, which according to the Transport Assessment would also be used for deliveries to the school. Note also there is no pathway and no space to install one.
Figure 4: Path of children across the mouth of the ramp and into the fire exit.
Figure 5: The photo is taken from the area of the school's proposed parking spaces. The arrow shows the direction of traffic coming from the ramp. In the distance the door to be used to exit the car park is highlighted. Children will have to be walked from cars to the door along the roadway. There are no walkways so they will be walking in the path of traffic.
A major concern of residents is the fact that this is an accident waiting to happen; mixing children and traffic in a confined space will eventually lead to a child being injured or worse.
The Statement of Community Involvement states that The applicants have undertaken a comprehensive consultation programme with local residents and stakeholders While some consultation has occurred we note: a) Joan Court residents have from the start made clear their concerns re safety and nothing we have said appears to have been taken into account in this planning application. The consultation appears to have been an exercise in going through the motions rather than a real attempt to address valid and widely held concerns.
b) As owners (defined as is a person with a freehold interest or leasehold interest with at least 7 years left to run) of part of the land or building to which this application relates, our members do not understand why we have not received notices of application for planning permission under article 11 of the Town and Country Planning (Development Management Procedure) (England) Order 2010 and question whether this invalidates the application.
Contained within Design and Access Statement-3225840.pdf is the Acoustic Consultants Report. This report contains pages and pages of analyses of sound levels, construction materials etc, however, once again, there is a fundamental flaw. A key part of the application is the intention is to use the playground facilities and sports pitch (MUGA in the report) of Fortune Green Play Centre located directly west of the site and overlooked by residents, run by an organisation called PACE, PACE operates an afterschool club during term-time and an all-day holiday club during school holidays. In evenings the sports pitch is regularly used by members of the local community to playing football until 10 p.m. using floodlights. The residents strongly support PACEs use of the playground facilities and encourages local children to play together in a safe and welcoming environment. During these sessions, groups of approximately 20 children use the playground to have a great time, including screaming, shouting and, hopefully more often than not, laughing raucously. This can be clearly heard by residents overlooking the playground, especially as all these flats have balconies, however we have no complaint whatsoever in this regard.
Something which is completely ignored in the report is the plan for these playgrounds to be used by 180 children for their morning and lunch time breaks. The manager of PACE has told us that he estimates the capacity of the outside areas to be in the region of 50 to 70 children. This means that break-times will have to be staggered, with 3 to 4 different session for both the morning and lunchtime breaks, and as such the much increased noise levels will be occurring for sustained periods throughout the day.
In section 7.4.7 of the above it assumed that all students who currently live within walking distance of the existing school sites (37%) will use the school bus. This is extremely optimistic and takes no account of the much earlier start time required for such families. In section 7.4.9 it is anticipated that the catchment of the school will become more local to Fortune Green and therefore an increase in the walking and public transport mode share is anticipated. This ignores the fact that the feeder primary schools remain outside of the borough, so a large proportion of pupils progressing through the schools will continue to be based in the Marylebone area. In section 7.5.2 it is assumed that only one of the 25 staff will drive to work. Again this appears to be very unrealistic with the increased distance from the existing schools and the fact that the SHHS travel plan predicts 4. In reality in addition to increasing traffic, we expect staff cars to add to the parking problems on neighbouring roads. Figure 8.1 of the report on page 45 shows the peak period for southbound traffic on Fortune Green Road is between 8 a.m. and 9 a.m., with 732 vehicles. The report then goes on to discuss total average weekday traffic flows, which is irrelevant, and concludes vehicle activity at the school would have little impact on the amount of peak hour traffic travelling along Fortune Green Road. The number of additional student car trips extrapolated from Table 7.6 of the report is 44. Note that no matter the direction of approach to the site, whether from the North or South, every car will leave the site to return home in the opposite direction they came, therefore every car will add to the southbound traffic in the peak hour. An additional 44 cars represents an increase of 6% to the current southbound traffic of 732 cars. Given that southbound traffic can sometimes be at a standstill, an additional 6% would be considered to have a very significant impact especially with cars pulling into and out of the site magnifying the problem.
As per the Transport Assessment, it has been assumed that car shares contain 3 students.
Table 7.11 on page 41 which analyses the trips in and out of the car park during the day is nonsensical and underlines the way the report uses selective data to brush aside obvious facts. The number of parking spaces available to parents is 12 (ignoring the fact that 2 of these spaces are unusable due to the cramped conditions and the angle of entry required). A simple review of this data shows that it is completely illogical; for 6 periods the number of parents cars in the car park exceeds the capacity of 12, and 3 cars will apparently be staying overnight! In reality all morning car trips will be between the time the school opens at 8 a.m. and the time school registration begins at 8:45 a.m.


text:
=> Godfrey BALDACCHINO
=> Leonard ELLUL MERCER
=> Gordon CARUANA DINGLI
=> Sammy GRECH
=> Antoinette CAMILLERI
=> Joseph CARUANA
Godfrey BALDACCHINO
With Dr Alex Gatt and his son Daryl
My interest in astronomy started from casual observations of the constellations as a 10-year old and the self-imposed challenge of being able to recognize all the constellations visible from my latitude. At age 16, I determined to sit for the external University of London examination in Astronomy. This, by the way, required a practical project, and this naturally led to me making a pitch for buying a small telescope to my parents. They were surprised, and then concerned with the expense - but we did conclude with a compromise solution, where I had to fork out 25% of the cost from my savings.
Astronomy helped me develop and sustain so many good friends and colleagues in my youth (some of which persist today, after more than 30 years) as well as developing leadership, committee, secretarial, editorial and public presentation skills that I (and my younger brother, Alex) would find to be extremely useful later on in our social and professional lives. With my University student colleague and mentor Alex Gatt, we set up the Students' Astronomical Circle (SAC) in 1978; and later merged with the Astronomical Association to become the Astronomical Society (of Malta). With the indefatigable Brother David Mizzi, I helped to set up the La Salle Astronomy Society at De La Salle College, Cottonera. Along with my wife Anna (who got to know me better at and through my astronomical pursuits as we dated) we pioneered an exciting national astronomy competition called AstroMind, and then set up a Junior Astronomy Club as a nursery for eventual astronomy enthusiasts. I wrote the Meteor Observer's Handbook in 1980; and founded and edited the SIRIUS Astronomy Magazine from 1979 to 1982 (a stencilled hard copy precursor of The Big Bang that saw many hours of struggles with Gestetner ink copiers) Within the SAC, I set up the Meteor and Eclipse Section (SACMES), which combined rigorous naked -eye observations of sporadic and shower meteors with lunar and solar eclipses, as well as regular meetings and lectures that took place in members' private homes, plus the annual exciting week-long summer observation camps, lovingly known as GASP (initially Gozo Astronomical Summer Project). Our meteor observations and reports, in particular, started making their way into international publications through our affiliation with such bodies as the British Astronomical Association, the Junior Astronomical Society (both of the UK) and the International Meteor Organisation (IMO). I was privileged to serve for one term as a Director of the IMO (1996-2000). I now maintain a casual interest in all things astronomical.
Godfrey Baldacchino (holding the folder, standing on extreme right) and other amateur astronomers at the Gozo Astronomical Summer Project (GASP Camp of August 1990, held at San Lawrenz, Gozo). A Statue of St Lawrence lies in the background. His wife Anna and son James are sitting on the steps, bottom right. Guess who the others in the photo are?