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Top 10 Quotes from the 2011 ASPO-USA Peak Oil Conference
This past week I attended the 7th annual ASPO-USA Peak Oil conference in Washington DC. All of the talks were very interesting, and I was happy to see that at least two members of our congress, Congressman Mike Honda (D-CA) and Congressman Roscoe Bartlett (R - MD), are aware of the peak oil challenge we face. For me, the best part of the weekend was the time I spent between talks discussing peak oil investing with a number of people who whose entire investing strategy revolves around peak oil.
I tend to take a lot of notes and when I hear interesting quotes, I write them down verbatim. So here are the top 10 interesting quotes from my note pad:
# 10) "Place a peak oil filter on top of your investment strategy" -Jim Hansen of Ravenna Capital Management
# 9) "No politician wants to admit that we have grown more than this planet can sustain" - William Catton
# 8) "I make my decisions based on information, but I'm unusual" -Chris Martenson on the public narrative problem with peak oil
# 7) "I'm a mac guy" -Robert Hirsch, author of the famous Hirsch Report, during some technical difficulties
# 6) "If they had to run on their own production, it would fall apart"- Robert Rapier describing the EROEI problem of corn ethanol
# 5) "We're in a zero-sum world" -Jeff Rubin
# 4) "Soil is more important than oil"..."the date will come when we stop treating soil like dirt" -Wes Jackson
# 3) "I think the peak oil situation will come very quickly" -Charles Schlumberger, Lead Air Transport Specialist at The World Bank
# 2) "Since oil is a finite resource, the oil industry is a finite industry" -Andy Buckingham, an oil industry wildcatter
# 1) "It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but rather the one most adaptable to change." - Angelina Galiteva quoting Charles Darwin
Posted by Will Martin at 5:23 AM
Peak Oil 101
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VyZEK2qLdI
Last Friday, September 23rd, 2011, I presented this "Peak Oil 101" presentation at Cornell University. We had Dr. Chris Martenson, a renowned peak oil author and Johnson School alumnus, join us by phone to answer questions after the presentation.
Before the lecture, the attendees were primed by watching the following videos from Dr. Martenson's website:
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-17a-peak-oil
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-17b-energy-budgeting
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-17c-energy-and-economy
The Fourth Release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Late last week the Obama administration announced that they would be releasing 30 million barrels of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a broader US-led release by the International Energy Agency of 60 million barrels of crude oil from member nations. The move was unexpected and unprecedented. This is only the fourth time in history that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been tapped. The past three times were in 1991, during Operation Desert Storm, in 1996, when Bill Clinton used the reserve as a political tool to try to reduce the deficit and in 2005, after Hurricane Katrina knocked out 95% of Gulf of Mexico crude production. The official reason given for the release of oil is to offset the lost Lybian oil production resulting from the Arab Spring-sparked civil war there.
Operation Desert Storm - one of four times the US used the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
In actuality, the release is probably designed to provide relief at the pump to American consumers as they enter the busiest part of the summer driving season. With the QE2 stimulus ending on June 30th, the FED has planned to continue keeping interest rates low by using the proceeds from the maturing debt that was purchased during QE1 and QE2 to continue purchasing $25 billion worth of treasuries per month. This continued quantitative easing would likely have an inflationary effect on oil prices, and this release of oil should partially offset this effect, at least for the next two months. An economically-motivated drawdown of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve still has military consequences, leaving the US more vulnerable to supply disruptions, and as the US releases its stockpile of oil, China is rapidly filling its own strategic petroleum reserve.
After OPEC refused to raise production rates, many people expected Saudi Arabia to step in and raise their own production to offset the lost Lybian oil. The fact that they haven't done so raises the specter that they may have in fact reached peak oil and are unable to raise their production rate any further. Part of the problem is that the only additional oil that Saudi Arabia can quickly bring to market is heavy crude. Because it takes many months, many millions of dollars and numerous legal hurdles to upgrade refineries to be able to process heavy crude, heavy crude refining capacity remains tight, meaning the additional Saudi heavy crude capacity is unlikely to offset the lost light sweet crude production from Lybia. This may continue to be a problem well into the future, as upgrading refineries for heavy crude and tar sands can cause their emissions per barrel to triple - making these upgrades difficult to justify politically.
With the world consuming over 86 million barrels of oil per day, the oil release is equivalent to a little more than 16 hours of global oil demand, meaning that the 5% drop in oil prices could be short-lived. In fact, oil markets, which had been trading in backwardation since February, recently went into contango, signalling that supply shortages are just around the corner. As a result, this short-sighted release of oil may present a buying opportunity for people wishing to profit from higher future oil prices.
Labels: Inflation, Peak Oil, Saudi Arabia, Supply and Demand
ETF Spotlight: Australia - EWA
Australia, with its vast resource wealth and political stability, is uniquely positioned to benefit from peak oil by exporting energy and raw materials at higher prices to an increasingly energy-starved world. At the same time, its geographic remoteness and depleting oil resources makes it uniquely susceptible to some of the worst consequences of peak oil. Australia is, therefore, a bit of an investment paradox if one is looking to reduce their exposure to peak oil - there are a multitude of investment opportunities, but likewise a multitude of traps.
Australia reached peak oil production in the year 2000, followed by a 33% decline in production since. So far over 80% of the proven oil reserves have been produced and oil production is expected to enter a rapid decline soon, with the Australian Government's "Australian Energy Resource Assessment" projecting an 85% decline in oil production over the next decade. Australia is only the world's 34th largest oil exporter and, with rising oil consumption, is on track to become a net importer of oil within the next decade. That's the bad news.
Australia's Peak Oil Year: 2000
The good news is that Australia is energy self-sufficient due to its vast reserves of coal and natural gas. Australia is the world's largest coal exporter and the world's 12th largest natural gas exporter. So despite the county's oil peak and rapid decline in oil production, Australia remains a net exporter of total energy. Australia's massive coal reserves could allow the country to benefit enormously from peak oil through coal liquefaction technology. Indeed, a number of Australian companies, such as Hybrid Energy, Monash Energy, Linc Energy and Syngas, are currently working to create fungible crude oil substitutes from coal.
Australia's Gorgon Gas Project off the country's western coast is one of the largest natural gas export terminals in the world. Expected to reach full production this year, the facility will pull natural gas from the North West Shelf and ship it as LNG to Japan, China and India. Another project, the Gladstone LNG project in Queensland, will convert coalbed methane into LNG for export by 2014. With Japan's recent earthquake/tsunami causing a nuclear meltdown at the Fukushima power plant, the role of natural gas in generating electricity will become more and more important as a worldwide public backlash against nuclear power forces existing older reactors into retirement and hampers the construction of future nuclear power plants. Countries like Japan, with few energy resources of their own, will look to countries like Australia to provide them with the energy they need to maintain their modern society. Developing countries like India and China, with their insatiable appetites for energy will also be major customers for these LNG exports.
In addition to its energy exports, Australia is one of the world's most important minerals exporters. It is the world's largest producer of bauxite (used in aluminum production), 2nd largest producer of zinc, 3rd largest producer of gold, 3rd largest producer of iron ore, 3rd largest producer of uranium, 4th largest producer of silver, 5th largest producer of copper, and a world leader in the production of a number of other minerals. Higher oil prices coincide with higher commodities prices in general, and many leaders in the mining industry, such as BHP Billiton and Vale, are predicting minerals prices to remain high. Peak oil could very well lead to "peak minerals", making these resources extremely valuable to Australia in the long run. These exports, however, are highly dependent on world economic growth. If oil prices spike too quickly, the economies of the world could be pushed into a recession, thereby reducing the demand for industrial metals and hurting Australia's mining industry. Since the mining industry is highly cyclical, investment in this sector should be timed properly and hedged through diversification of investment into other sectors. Of particular concern, given that Australia hold's the world's largest uranium reserves. is whether the Japanese nuclear meltdown will hamper uranium exports. Most analysts agree that even with a public backlash forcing retirements of nuclear power plants in developed countries, the increased demand for nuclear power in developing countries, like China, will outweigh this headwind.
Australia has the lowest "physiological density" of any country on earth, with only 43 people per square kilometer of arable land. As peak oil makes energy-intensive agriculture more and more expensive, Australia will benefit enormously from exporting food to the world. Perhaps more importantly, Australia has the most certified organic farmland of any country on earth, with 12 million hectares. This also puts Australia in the enviousness position of having the lowest "organic physiological density" on the planet with only 1.9 people per hectare of organic farmland. Because organic agriculture doesn't require the used of petroleum-derived pesticides and fertilizers, the food energy output per unit of energy input is about double that of our world's current petroleum-intensive agriculture systems. From a food standpoint, Australia is completely "peak oil proof" and will likely play an extremely important global role as the world's struggles to feed nearly 7 billion people with less and less oil available for pesticides and fertilizers.
Global warming will shift much of the productive farmland from the north to the south of Australia over the next half-century. In the short term, the country as a whole will experience more temperate weather, with longer growing seasons for many crops. Water scarcity, however, may dampen much of the benefits gained from these advantageous changes. Droughts and floods already plague Australian farmers. Australia had its wettest spring on record last year, with Queensland and Victoria experiencing major floods. At the same time, however, the southwest experienced severe drought with its driest and hottest year on record. These types of events could potentially get much worse as a result of global warming. Adapting to these changing climate conditions will require tremendous infrastructure costs for the protection from floods and the production and distribution of water. Australia currently gets much of its drinking water for western cities through multi-billion dollar desalination plants. Expanding the use of desalination, especially if it becomes required for crop production, will be extremely energy intensive and increasingly costly in the future.
One factor pushing Australia in the right direction is the environmental awareness of its citizens. When it comes to environmental issues, Australians are the third most knowledgeable group of people (behind Swedes and Japanese) and they are the most likely group to purchase energy-saving appliances for their home for environmental reasons. This environmental awareness likely stems from the 1970's when Australia's unique susceptibility to ozone depletion catapulted environmental issues to the forefront of minds. Countries in the lower latitudes of the southern hemisphere were the first to be threatened by the growing hole in the ozone layer, and countries like Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa, with their citizenry of fair-skinned European descendants, were particularly threatened by the cancer-causing UVB radiation leaking through the ozone hole. Abroad, the Australian government became a leader in the fight against ozone-depleting CFCs, ultimately leading to the ratification of the Montreal Protocol in 1987. At home, the Australian government pushed hard to educate its citizens on the cancer danger of ozone depletion. It's famous "Slip Slop Slap" campaign greatly reduced skin cancer rates by encouraging children to "slip on a shirt, slop on sunscreen, and slap on a hat", and today, almost all schools employ a "no hat, no play" policy for children. This massive environmental awareness campaign focused on ozone depletion likely had spill-over effects, with Australians today being more aware of all environmental issues facing them. With the ozone hole problem, Australians saw an environmental catastrophe looming over them and were able to band together to enact international political change to solve the problem. With global climate change, the country faces a similar challenge today, so it is no wonder that they are keenly aware of the need to push change both at home and abroad in order to solve the problem.
"no hat, no play"
From a peak oil standpoint, this environmental awareness is pushing Australia towards more sustainable sources of energy and reducing the energy intensity of Australia's economy overall. Awareness of peak oil itself is high in Australia. The country did, after all, create the first "peak oil movie" with the 1979 dystopian action film "Mad Max". On a political level the Australian government is one of the few to have released a report officially acknowledging peak oil and analyzing possible mitigation strategies. Even in my own blog stats, I receive a disproportionate amount of page-views from Australia on a population-weighted basis than I do from other developed countries, leading me to believe that Australians, on average, have a higher awareness of peak oil than people from other nations. Culturally, there is also an emblematic tradition of rugged self-reliance in Australia, similar to America's western culture of independence and self-determination. This cultural tradition will help Australia greatly as the world enters a post-peak phase, when sacrifices and difficult decisions need to be made. This public awareness of global climate change and peak oil is slowly pushing Australian politicians to enact energy legislation that promotes more sustainable forms of energy. Australia gets the vast majority of its electricity from coal-fired power plants, making it one of the world's worst greenhouse gas emitters on a per-capita basis. Coal power is slowly being replaced with a number of renewable energy sources through state subsidies.
Similar to the US, Australia has no cap-and-trade carbon scheme but unlike the US, the Australian federal government has enacted a mandatory renewable energy target of 20% renewable electricity by 2020. Individual states have imposed feed-in tariffs and state renewable energy targets, ranging from 15% by 2014 in South Australia to 25% by 2020 in Victoria. Adoption of renewable energy in Australia has increased by 41% over the last 30 years but absolute adoption remains extremely low, with 6.4% of the country's electricity coming from hydroelectric dams, and only 0.7% coming from wind power. Over the next decade, wind and gas adoption will increase significantly to meet these state targets, but coal will still remain the number one source of energy in Australia. The sunny climate across vast parts of Australia makes the country a perfect candidate for solar power, and currently about 7% of households have solar hot water heaters on their roofs. These systems typically have about a 5 year payback period for homeowners and are expected to become more widely used in the coming years. Solar photovoltaic adoption, through both industrial scale projects as well as distributed home generation, will almost certainly increase in the future, especially with the government's favorable subsidies.
Australia is the world's most sparsely populated developed country, with vast land distances separating cities from each other. Despite a relatively extensive rail network, 72% of freight is moved by road, often by the iconic "road train". These forms of transport, despite being far more efficient than the single trailer trucks used in places like Europe and the US, are still far less energy efficient when compared rail. New rail lines, however, are being constructed, such as the Adelaide–Darwin line that was opened in 2004.
Australians are the third least likely group of people to use public transportation (after Americans and Canadians) and along with the French and the Americans, Australians are the third mostly likely to drive their car alone. Australia currently does not have any high speed passenger rail lines and despite many feasibility studies, there are no plans for construction of any lines in the near future. Like the US, Australia has a strong car culture, large sprawling suburbs and vast distances between cities in the west. This all combines to make the country extremely dependent on gasoline for daily life. Peak oil and correspondingly high gasoline prices will require tremendous societal change, as people move to more walkable neighborhoods, drive fewer miles and drive more fuel-efficient vehicles.
Sea Transportation
The vast physical distances separating Australia from other developed world economies (besides New Zealand) creates an "economic remoteness" that could potentially be greatly exacerbated by the onset of peak oil. Because sea shipments require a lot of oil, as the price goes up, Australia could become less economically competitive against other nations for the trade of certain goods. Australia's biggest trading partner is China, followed by Japan and the United States. Shipping from Melbourne, the busiest shipping port in Australia, to Shanghai, the busiest shipping port in China takes 15 days to complete the 5,131 nautical mile journey. For comparison, Norway's largest trading partner is the United Kingdom. Shipping from Stavanger to Aberdeen requires a distance of only 274 nautical miles.
One way to look at this difference in "economic remoteness" is to compare the difference in shipping costs for the two countries at different oil prices. Research from CIBC shows that to ship a 40 foot container the 5,724 nautical miles from Los Angeles to Shanghai, China, costs about $8,000 ($1.40 per mile) with oil at about $130 per barrel. A regression analysis of the CIBC data shows that the predictive equation they use for calculating shipping cost per mile in relation to oil prices (with a statistically-significant p-value of 0.026 and a r-square of 0.95) is: Shipping Cost Per Nautical Mile = 0.185 + 0.011 * Oil Price. With oil at $100 per barrel, the cost for a Norwegian company to ship a 40-foot shipping container of lingonberry jam from Norway to the UK would be about $350. The cost for an Austrailian company to ship a 40-foot shipping container of vegemite from Austrailia to China would be about $6,600. With oil at $200 per barrel, shipping the lingonberry jam would only cost $650 while shipping the vegemite would cost $12,200. The average shipping container holds about $300,000 worth of goods (with a $100,000 standard deviation). With profit margins of less than 2% in the food industry, the $6,000 profit for the Australian company shipping vegemite to China quickly disappears as oil prices rise, while the Norwegian company will continue shipping lingonberry jam to the UK at a profit.
The susceptibility of long-distance sea shipping trade to volatile oil prices is perhaps more important than the absolute costs of shipping. According to a United Nations report on international trade, the price elasticity of inter-modal freight rates to oil prices ranges between 0.19 and 0.36. This range is relativity inelastic, and it means that as oil prices fluctuate wildly as we enter the bumpy plateau of peak oil, companies in Australia that are heavily dependent on international sea shipments may experience significant economic pain.
In recent decades, the "graduation" of some Southeast Asian countries, like China, Singapore and Taiwan from "developing" to "developed" has created more trade partners in the region. As the southeast Asian "tiger" economies continue to grow into a larger portion of the world's GDP, Australia's average economic distance will fall, while economic remoteness on relative terms will increase for European and western-hemisphere countries. This should help Australia stay economically competitive for many exports.
Australia's vast mineral wealth could also help it overcome its economic remoteness. The United States overcame the physical remoteness from its European trading partners in the 1700's by exploiting its vast natural resource wealth and exporting raw materials to these advanced economies. Despite the cost of shipping, mineral exports will likely continue to remain competitive even in a post-peak enviornment.
The economic isolation from other trading partners may also make Australia one of the first countries to experience "localisation" of the kind Jeff Rubin describes in his book "Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller". The most remote cities in the central and western part of the country may be forced to become more economically self reliant, producing more goods locally. As a whole, the country will become more reliant on the export of services and less reliant on the export of manufactured goods, much as many economists are encouraging America to do now.
As peak oil pushes up the cost of aviation fuel, air travel will likely become more and more expensive in the future. Due to the vast distances required to travel to Australia, the country's tourism sector may be particularly hard-hit by peak oil. Tourism currently represents 11% of exports and 4.2% of Australia's GDP, but it employs 5.7% of of the country's workforce. The government realizes the importance of the tourism sector to its GDP and spends a lot of money trying to entice more international travelers to come visit. Just last year, the government's tourism agency spent $3 million to get American talk show host Oprah Winfrey to promote American tourism to Australia. International visitors, however, only contribute 23% of the country's tourism revenue, with the remaining 77% coming from Australian residents. Just as "localization" will make communities more economically self-reliant, peak oil will likely make Australian's tourism industry more dependent on this large domestic revenue source, possibly at the expense of the country's major airlines like Quantas and Virgin Blue.
High oil prices will also increase the cost of air-fright transportation for some internationally-sourced "just in time" perishable goods like flowers and sushi, which currently make up 80% of air freight shipments. Such internationally-sourced time-dependent consumer products, both coming from and going to Australia, will become prohibitively expensive for all but the wealthiest people in the world, and will be gradually replaced with more locally sourced items.
Jet fuel sourced from biofuels, derived from feedstocks like camelina oil or algae, will enter the market as oil prices get prohibitively high for the aviation market to stomach. Australia, with its vast agricultural resources that I described above, will be extremely well positioned to profit from this transition. Movement towards aviation biofuels will also mitigate some of these pains, especially as improved crop technology, like better genetically-modified biofuel feedstocks increase the energy returned from energy invested, making them more cost-competitive against increasingly expensive oil.
Economic Energy Intensity
Australia's economy has a rather high energy intensity of 0.18 kilograms of oil equivalent per $5USD of GDP created in constant purchasing power parity terms. This energy intensity is slightly better than the world average but lags behind the developed world's (OECD) energy intensity of 0.15 koe/$05p. This is largely due to the energy intensive nature of some of Australia's largest economic sectors like mining and energy, as well as the energy-intensive nature of importing and exporting goods over the vast distances require to reach Australia. The positive news is that Australia's economy has been becoming more and more energy efficient over the last 20 years and may still be able to make vast efficiency improvements, given the correct business enviornment.
Australia's Economic Energy Intensity
Economic Stability
Relative to many of the world's energy exporters, Australia has an extremely stable government, stable currency and stable civil society. The Economist Intelligence Unit ranks Australia in the top category for democracy. Transparency International ranks the country in the top category of least corrupt regimes on earth. With a Gini index of 30.5, Australia ranks better than the European Union in terms of income equality, which has been show to be statistically correlated to social cohesion. The government has extremely low debt relative to the country's GDP with the national debt representing only 22.4% of GDP. The banking sector is very tightly regulated, far more so than in places like the United States, and as a result, Australia was able to largely avoid the late 2000's financial crisis. The Australian dollar is the 5th most traded currency in the world and is often included in discussions about a future currency basket that could replace the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency.
Peak Oil Proof Portfolio: EWA
In the Peak Oil Proof Portfolio, I suggest investing in Australia through the iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund (EWA). This ETF is a broad-market fund holding equity in companies across all of Austrailia's economic sectors. The top 10 holdings of the fund are:
BHP Billiton (ASX:BHP)
World's largest mining company
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA)
Second largest company in Australia
Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX:WBC)
Australia's 2nd largest bank
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX:ANZ)
Largest bank in New Zealand and 4th largest bank in Australia
Major banker to China, Vietnam and Indonesia
National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB)
Australia's largest bank
Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO)
World's 4th largest mining company
World's number 1 producer of coal and aluminum
Wesfarmers (ASX:WES)
Major retailer in Australasia - operates Coles, Target, Kmart, etc.
Largest private employer in Australia
Owns a coal mine and is a major LPG retailer
Woolworths (ASX:WOW)
Largest retailer in Australia and New Zealand
Operates Woolworths supermarket chain, Safeway, etc.
Newcrest Mining (ASX:NCM)
World's 5th largest gold miner
Woodside Petroleum (ASX:WPL)
Major producer of offshore oil and gas in Australia
Oil exploration and production worldwide including in the US Gulf of Mexico
Since the EWA ETF is holds the market as a whole, it is not a targeted way of investing in only Australian companies that are likely to benefit from peak oil. Some companies that could benefit from increasing energy prices are:
Offshore gas production in western Australian
Oil production in US Gulf of Mexico and Mauritania
Origin Energy (ASX:ORG)
Australian and New Zealand oil and gas production
Major electricity utility in New Zealand
Santos (ASX:STO)
Australia's largest domestic gas producer
Major LNG exporter including coal-to-LNG
Major offshore exploration player in emerging markets
WorleyParsons (ASX:WOR)
Major engineering consulting firm for the oil industry
Major player in offshore drilling and Canadian oil sands
Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN)
Australia's second largest uranium mining company
Owns uranium mines in Africa
Caltex Australia (ASX:CTX)
Retail-only (downstream) oil company - may get squeezed by peak oil
Majority-owned by Chevron
Energy Resources of Australia (ASX:ERA)
Majority-owned by Rio Tinto
Australia's largest uranium mining company
Coal-to-liquids companies
Syngas (ASX:SYS)
Working to commercialize a coal-to-diesel facility
Strike Oil Limited (ASX:STX)
Owns Hybrid Energy
Working to commercialize coal gasification for production of fuels and fertilizers
Gas production in Texas
Linc Energy Ltd (ASX:LNC)
Combining underground coal gasification and gas-to-liquid
Renewable Energy Companies
Silex Systems (ASX:SLX)
Owns Silex Solar, Australia's largest manufacturer of solar panels
Owns Solar Systems, which is currently constructing the largest photovoltaic power station in the world
Dyesol (ASX:DYE)
Manufacturer of "3rd generation" solar panels
EnviroMission (ASX:EVM)
Working to commercialize solar updraft tower technology
Orica (ASX:ORI)
Mining services company - provides explosives, etc.
Fortescue Metals Group (ASX:FMG)
Iron ore exporter
Incitec Pivot (ASX:IPL)
Alumina Limited (ASX:AWC)
Vertically-integrated aluminum producer
OZ Minerals (ASX:OZL)
Copper, gold and silver miner
OneSteel (ASX:OST)
Macarthur Coal (ASX:MCC)
Major exporter of coking coal, used in steel production
Lynas Corporation (ASX:LYC)
Owns the Mount Weld mine, a potential source of rare earth metals
Mine production expected to start this year
Cash flow statement makes the company look like a huge money pit - yet to generate any revenue
Platinum Australia Limited (ASX:PLA)
Mines platinum and palladium
Tawana Resources (ASX:TAW)
Diamond miner, producing 13 million carats per year
Metals X Limited (ASX:MLX)
Tin miner
Agriculture Companies
Australian Agricultural Company (ASX:AAC)
Cattle ranching
Ridley Corporation Limited (ASX:RIC)
Animal feed producer
Tandou Limited (ASX:TAN)
Major water resources - #1 water investment in Australia
Operates 79,000 hectares of sustainable agricultural land
Energy Efficiency Companies
Air Change (ASX:IFC)
Improves efficiencies in HVAC systems
This list of companies is just a starting point, investors need to do their due diligence. Ideally, investing in these companies would be timed to coincide with favorable market conditions. The bumpy plateau of peak oil may mean that oil prices will fluctuate wildly and that oil price spikes will create significant demand destruction followed by market corrections. Oil is currently trading at over $120 per barrel, the highest it's been since the last oil price spike sent us into the worst recession since the great depression. It may be prudent to hold off on equity investments at this point, as high oil prices may put a wrench in the current economic recovery.
The 2011 Oil Shock
Special thanks to Dan Miethke in Australia for corresponding with me on this post.
Labels: Australia, EWA, Peak Oil Proof Portfolio
If Libya's Oil is Shut Down, Oil Could Hit $142/bbl.
There is some concern right now that because of the potential imminent collapse of the Libyan government, the country may have to temporarily shut down oil production. This would be a major issue, because Libya is currently the world's 11th largest oil exporter.
To get right to the punchline, if Libya were to shut down all of their oil production, the price of oil could spike to $142 per barrel. There's a 20% chance it will happen, and if it does, the US economy could loose $335 Billion in GDP.
Using the short run price elasticity of demand, it is possible to calculate the impact of the secession of Libyan oil production on world oil prices. There are a number of estimates of the short run price elasticity of demand for crude oil from a number of leading journals. They range from -0.034 to -0.05 to -0.077. Based on this range, -0.05 should be a good enough estimate for the purposes of this post. As I stated in my video two weeks ago, there are reasons to believe that the short-run elasticities of both supply and demand are far more inelastic than most economists believe, but for simplicities sake, -0.05 is an adequate estimate. Assuming the adjustment to the supply and demand curves will come entirely from the demand side, we can use the following equation to estimate the change in price: Short Run Elasticity of Demand = % change in quantity supplied / % change in price. I believe this is a fair assumption, given the fact that recent Wikileaks releases, which I discuss in another post, have shown us that the available spare production capacity of Saudi Arabia may be grossly overstated, resulting in a far smaller cushion of spare oil capacity available to reduce the effect of a shock like this. Any price improvement from slack taken up by spare production capacity may be lost in the trading frenzy that would follow an event like this.
Current World Oil Production = 84,388,895 barrels per day
Current Libyan Oil Production = 1,789,155 barrels per day
% Change in World Oil Production if Libyan crude production is halted = ((84,388,895-1,789,155)-84,388,895)/84,388,895 = -2.12%
-.05 = -2.12% / % change in price
% change in price = -2.12%/-.05
% change in price = 42.4% increase
Brent crude price before Libyan unrest = $100 / bbl
Brent crude price if Libyan crude production is halted = 100*1.424 = $142/bbl
If all of Libya's crude oil production was taken offline, we could see the price of oil spike to $142 per barrel.
The actual Brent crude price today was $108 / bbl - an increase of $8 since last week, when the Libyan collapse started. This means that the increase in the oil price as a percent of the $42 increase potential is 8 / 42 = 0.19047619. So the $8 increase in oil price since the Libyan collapse began is signaling that the market believes that there's about a 20% chance that Libya will halt all oil production.
If the price of oil gets much higher, we will be running dangerously close to the point where demand destruction will cause the world economy to sink back into a recession. This paper uses the short run oil price elasticity of GDP to find that for every 1% increase in the price of oil, the US economy looses .05% of its GDP. To put it another way, with a $14.5 Trillion economy and with oil at $100/bbl, for every $1 increase in the price of oil, our economy looses $7.3 Billion of GDP. With today's $5 oil price increase, the United States lost $36 Billion in GDP. If Libya's crude oil production is taken offline, and the oil price spikes to $142/bbl, the US economy would loose $335 Billion in GDP - a 2.3% decline that would push the US economy back into a recession.
For more information on how to protect yourself from this possible oil price spike, please read my other posts Demand Destruction from Peak Oil and Profit from Peak Oil's Bumpy Plateau.
Labels: Demand Destruction, Lybia, Peak Oil, Price Spike, Supply and Demand
Wikileaks Confirms Fears of Saudi Peak Oil - An Analysis
Last week, Wikileaks released four diplomatic cables which had been sent from the US embassy and consulates in Saudi Arabia to the U.S. Department of State. The main headline from these cables was the fact that the US government privately believes that Saudi Arabia may be overstating their oil reserves by 40%.
Coincidentally, the night before the leak I posted a video in which I discussed a few of the reasons why most experts believe that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members are overstating their reserves and I discussed that the main implication of this is in the short run, we're likely to see an oil price spike within the next two years.
Today, I'd like to put the leaked cables into context with an analysis of the issues discussed in the cables and the possible repercussions of those issues.
The first cable was sent to the US Department of Energy via the US State Department on December 10th, 2007 by Consul General John Kincannon with the subject line "FORMER ARAMCO INSIDER SPECULATES SAUDIS WILL MISS 12.5 MBD IN 2009". Consul General Kincannon is headquartered out of Dhahran, Saudi Arabia - a city of only 11,000 people on the Persian Gulf coast of Saudi Arabia. What's important about Dhahran is that for the past 78 years, it's been the home of the headquarters for Saudi Aramco - the largest oil company in the world. The consulate in Dhahran is one of the most important posts of any US diplomat, as the information brought back from their relationships at Saudi Aramco have wide-reaching implications for the military and economic security of the United States.
Consul General John Kincannon
In the leaked cable, Consul General Kincannon describes a meeting he and the consulate's economic officer had with Dr. Sadad al-Husseini on November 20th, 2007. Dr. al-Husseini served as the Executive Vice President for Exploration and Production at Saudi Aramco from 1992 to 2004 and was a member of the Saudi Aramco board of directors from 1996 to 2004. In these positions, he had complete access to all of the information on all of Saudi Arabia's oil fields. He had complete data from each oil field, including the field's total size, the amount of oil which has been extracted, the amount of oil left, and, most importantly, what the peak production capacity of each field is from an economic and geophysical perspective. During the meeting, Dr. al-Husseini told the consulate general that Saudi Arabia "has oversold its ability to increase production and will be unable to reach the stated goal of 12.5 million b/d of sustainable capacity". Additionally, he stated that "sustaining 12 million b/d output will only be possible for a limited period of time, and even then, only with a massive investment program." He stated that "new oil discoveries are insufficient relative to the decline of the super-fields, such as Ghawar, that have long been the lynchpin of the global market." He goes on to say that "once 50 percent depletion of original proven reserves has been reached...a slow but steady output decline will ensue and no amount of effort will be able to stop it."
Essentially, Dr. al-Husseini told the US that Saudi Arabia's oil production would peak at 12 million barrels per day and would decline thereafter.
Dr. Sadad al-Husseini
He further stated that "approximately 116 billion barrels of oil have been produced by Saudi Arabia, meaning only 64 billion barrels remain before reaching this crucial point of inflection. At 12 million b/d production, this inflection point will arrive in 14 years."
Given that the meeting was held in 2007, 14 years from the date of the meeting puts the peak year in 2021. If Dr. al-Husseini is correct, we will see a Saudi peak within the next 10 years.
What most of the news media missed in the analysis of this leaked cable is that Sadad al-Husseini has been publicly warning people about the Saudi peak for a number of years. In 2004, three years before this meeting took place, al-Husseini did an interview for UK's Channel 4, in which he gave the same warnings about rising oil prices and a future Saudi peak. After his Channel 4 interview, al-Husseini did interviews for the New York Times and the Energy Bulletin in 2005, for writer David Strahan in 2007 and for CNBC in 2008. In 2008 he also met with influential investors like George Soros and T. Boone Pickens in an effort to further raise awareness of the issue. So it certainly wasn't private knowledge that Sadad al-Husseini believed that Saudi Arabia was overstating their reserves. What is important about the leaked cable, therefore, is not the fact that Sadad al-Husseini is predicting a Saudi peak in the next 10 years, but that the US government is privately acknowledging it while publicly saying nothing about peak oil.
The cable brings up the point that one of the factors limiting the addition of new oil production capacity is the lack of skilled workers in the oil industry. Because the price of oil collapsed in the early 1980's and remained low for nearly two decades, thousands of experienced workers were laid off and thousands more who would've entered the industry went on to work in other industries. As a vast amount of the workers who remained in the industry through this bear market are now beginning to retire, they are taking their years of industry knowledge with them and further exacerbating the skilled labor problem. This factor has been discussed recently, as the lack of skilled workers may have contributed to last summer's gulf of mexico oil spill. From the peak oil perspective, the lack of skilled workers is making it harder to bring more oil production online, which could make it difficult to slow the decline once we've reached peak oil.
The cable also discusses the oil price increases in 2007, saying "considering the rapidly growing global demand for energy - led by China, India and internal growth in oil-exporting countries - and in light of the above mentioned constraints on expanding current capacity, al-Husseini believes that the recent oil price increases are not market distortions but instead reflect the underlying reality that demand has met supply". In my video that I put up the night before Wikileaks released this cable, I go into much more depth on this issue. The main conclusion that I reach is that our world's oil supply is beginning to reach a wall and at the same time the world's demand for oil is growing rapidly and becoming far more inelastic. These factors will combine to cause a price spike in the short run and higher oil prices in the long run.
With respect to the motives for Saudi Arabia to overstate their reserves, the cable states that "al-Husseini believes that Saudi officials overstate capabilities in the interest of spurring foreign investment". This is part of the motivation, but it is not the whole picture. The reasons for overstating reserves are both economic and political.
On the economic side, because Saudi Arabia is part of the OPEC cartel they have a huge economic incentive to overstate their reserves. In game theory, this is the classic "prisoner's dilemma" situation. Each member of the cartel is allowed to produce oil based on the amount of reserves they claim to have. Since the actual exploration and production data that proves these reserve numbers are state secrets, there are no repercussions for lying about them, since it is impossible for the other cartel members to force you to prove them. By overstating their reserves, Saudi Arabia is able to make more profit by producing more oil while the cartel keeps the market price high.
The other economic incentive is one which Sadad al-Husseini brings up - that by overstating reserves, Saudi Arabia is making the economic future of their country look brighter than it really is, thereby encouraging more foreign investment in their country.
In addition to the economic incentive to lie about their oil reserves, Saudi Arabia has huge political incentives to do so as well. They may wish to overstate their oil reserves in order to make themselves seem more important than they really are to international economic and military partners. Countries like the United States are heavily dependent on foreign oil and are therefore most likely to make economic and military alliances with countries that can supply them with oil well into the future. Saudi Arabia is in a very unstable area of the world, surrounded by hostile neighbors like Iran and Yemen, so the incentive to overstate reserves in order to secure these international military partnerships is enormous.
Politically, it may actually be more important for the Saudi government to overstate reserves in order to quell political turmoil within their own country. Oil is the number one source of current and future wealth production in Saudi Arabia and by overstating their reserves, Saudi Arabia makes the future look brighter for their citizens. If the citizens suddenly realized (as they may be realizing right now) that the future that's been promised to them by the royal family won't be there, the population may become restless and overthrow the dictatorship.
As we are seeing right now with governments in Tunisia and Egypt being overthrown, the dictators in these Middle Eastern countries often have a tenuous hold on political power.
Saudi Arabia is currently experiencing a birth explosion, with the population doubling within the last 20 years to over 25 million people today. This huge youth bulge means that the median age in Saudi Arabia is only 24.9 years old. More than half the population is under the age of 20. At the same time, the sex ratio in Saudi Arabia is skewed worse than almost any other country on earth, with 1.29 men for every woman between the ages of 15 and 64. Since the wealthiest men often take more than one wife and it is illegal for men to meet women unless they're accompanied by a chaperone, it can safely be assumed that there are a lot of frustrated young men in Saudi Arabia. The unemployment rate is high for everyone in Saudi Arabia, but it is particularly bad for the youth. The unemployment rate for males between the ages of 20 and 24 is nearly 50%.
Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil producer but the vast majority of the oil wealth only makes it into the hands of the royal family. It's estimated that there are more than 10,000 princes in Saudi Arabia. The average Saudi sees these princes driving around in Ferraris and living in lavish mansions, but yet 40% of the population lives below the poverty line. By almost all measures, Saudi Arabia has some of the worst income inequality of any country on earth.
Worse still, it was revealed in another leaked cable that, in one of the most religiously conservative countries on the planet, where the punishment for drinking liquor is public lashing, the princes routinely throw outlandish parties with liquor, prostitutes and drugs. Over the past decade, as the internet and satellite television have begun to permeate the country, more and more average citizens are getting a true picture of those in charge.
Saudi Arabia is home to the two holiest sites in Islam - Mecca and Medina. Ever since the 1979 seizure of the Grand Mosque in Mecca by Islamist radicals, the islamic religious leaders in Saudi Arabia have had tremendous political power in areas of social policy. Since 1979, they've set up a madrasah-style education system around Saudi Arabia which teaches these impressionable youth a fundamentalist form of Wahhabi Islam.
So when you combine all of the factors I've described above, Saudi Arabia has a lot of frustrated, unmarried, religiously fundamentalist, unemployed young men, who see most of the oil revenue going to a select few royalty that seem to flaunt all of the religious rules which they diligently follow. It certainly sounds like a recipe for a revolution if you ask me.
Clearly, this social unrest puts another pressure on the government to overstate their reserves in order to paint a rosy picture for the proletariat of a brighter future ahead. If the general public begins to realize that the country's oil wealth won't be growing in the future at the rate it has been growing thusfar, the youth may choose to overthrow the government in order to spread the wealth around while it still remains.
The second cable was sent to the US Department of Energy via the US State Department on May 7th, 2008 by the Riyadh Deputy Chief of Mission (chargé d'affaires) Michael Gfoeller with the subject line "PRINCE ABDULAZIZ ON ENERGY MARKETS, OPEC LAWSUITS". In the cable, Mr. Gfoeller describes a meeting he and the Energy Attaché had on May 6th, 2008 with the Assistant Minister of Petroleum Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud. In the meeting, the Prince told the US deputy chief that he was "extremely worried about demand destruction in the U.S." He said "We are extremely worried about demand destruction, like in the early 1980s. Aramco is trying to sell more, but frankly there are no buyers. We are discounting crudes, now we're at a $10 differential between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Dubai Light, sometimes as much as a $12-$13 differential. Our buyers still bought less in April than they did in March." To put the meeting in context, on May 6th, 2008 the WTI oil price had just broken $120 per barrel for the first time in history. Exactly 60 days from this meeting, the oil price would spike up to $147 per barrel, causing extreme demand destruction and triggering the worst recession since the great depression. Over the next 5 months, the price would fall from $147 per barrel to just $30 per barrel.
In my video that I put up the night before Wikileaks released this cable, I explain this demand destruction in more depth. There are two types of demand destruction. The primary demand destruction occurs as the price of gasoline at the pump rises and people and companies begin to curtail their gasoline consumption. The second, and more economically damaging, demand destruction occurs because oil is used as an input in almost everything we consume in our modern lives. As the price of oil goes up, the price of all other goods goes up. Because wages don't increase along with the price of goods, consumers have to spend more of their income on the necessities in life such as the gasoline needed to drive to work or the food on their dinner table. This leaves the average consumer with less discretionary income to spend on other consumer goods. When you aggregate this across the whole society, the demand for all goods goes down – thereby further decreasing the demand for oil but also causing the economy to tip into a recession. This is exactly what we saw occur less than a year after this cable was sent.
The third cable was sent to the US Department of Energy via the US State Department on June 3rd, 2008 by the Riyadh Deputy Chief of Mission (chargé d'affaires) Michael Gfoeller with the subject line "PRINCE ABDULAZIZ ON ENERGY MARKETS, OPEC LAWSUITS".
In the cable, Mr. Gfoeller summarizes the analysis of Brad Bourland, the Chief Economist of Saudi-based Jadwa Investments, explaining that "while crude has increased by nearly 6 times in the last four years, gasoline prices in the U.S. have at most tripled. While consumers complain vociferously about rising pump prices, nonetheless they are not absorbing the full brunt of rising input prices. The refining sector is absorbing the growing pricing differentials between crude and finished products, leading to plummeting refining utilization rates in the U.S.".
As oil prices spike, refineries find it difficult to send the full cost increase on to their customers, leading to a narrower differential between the crude oil price and the refined product price (this is known as the "crack spread"). Oil refineries that are not vertically integrated with oil producers get "squeezed out", which lowers overall refinery utilization, leading to a reduction in available refined fuels like gasoline and diesel, which pushes prices for these products up even further.
This is just one more factor which can accelerate an oil price spike. Since the last recession began and the oil price fell, many of the remaining independent oil refineries like Big West and Flying J have gone bankrupt and have closed down. On top of these factors, at the end of 2010, the EPA announced it would begin regulating greenhouse gas emissions from refineries within the next two years. If these new regulations aren't shot down in congress, it would be just another headwind against independent refineries. Because of the closure of these independent refineries, the available refining capacity in the US has been getting tighter since the last oil price spike. This means that as oil prices spike again, the increase costs will be passed on to the consumer more quickly - potentially accelerating the speed of the spike and the speed of the demand destruction crash which will follow it.
Mr. Gfoeller further states that "widespread petrol subsidies in China, India, and the Middle East ensure price feedback mechanisms are broken; they therefore predict crude demand will continue to rise there. Governments are abandoning plans to roll back petrol subsidies in the face of escalating food inflation...Essentially there is no price signaling, "go slow" sign in the form of higher prices for consumers as crude rises...we will continue to see unrestrained demand growth, especially in the Middle East and China." Gfoeller goes on to say that "Bourland was not optimistic about prospects for encouraging greater price elasticity in the world energy markets. Inflation, particularly food inflation, recently has become a front-burner issue for many nations. Pressed consumers in many nations have recently found themselves on a knife's edge regarding food security, and are not likely to peacefully accept the rolling back of petrol subsidies which have become effectively institutionalized. Bourland also cautioned that Saudi Arabia's domestic consumption of crude continues to grow by about 100,000 bpd annually, ensuring a tight global market for the foreseeable future."
This cable again relays the warning about the factors affecting the inelasticity of of demand that I discussed in my video last week. Another important point which is brought up is the increasing amount of export cannibalization from the rapidly rising oil demand within Saudi Arabia. The population of Saudi Arabia has exploded over the past two decades, and because energy is heavily subsidized within the country, the demand growth for oil within the country continues to grow year-over-year. The best way to think about export cannibalization in oil exporting nations is through the "Export Land Model", developed by Dallas geologist Jeffrey Brown. Essentially the model predicts that as a country's oil production peaks and begins to decline, the internal demand for the nation's oil continues to rise, cannibalizing exports and accelerating the decline in oil production. Currently, about 40% of the production increases every year in Saudi Arabia are offset by increased oil demand within the country itself. In the years ahead, this will continue to grow until Saudi Arabia is no longer a net exporter of oil. We have seen this happen in every single oil exporting nation from the United States to Egypt.
This third leaked cable again reiterates the United States' concern over Saudi Arabia's peak production with Mr. Gfoeller stating that "it appears unlikely Saudi Aramco could muster the million or more barrels which appear to be needed to make a dent in the normally upwards price trajectory. Saudi Aramco's ability to sustain such a production increase for a year or more raises serious questions. A series of major project delays and accidents XXXXXXXXXXXX over the last couple of years is evidence that Saudi Aramco is having to run harder to stay in place - to replace the decline in existing production. Additional production would likely come from increasingly heavy crude which the world lacks sufficient capacity to easily refine. The Saudis appear dis-inclined to discount its heavy crude sufficiently, so the market is dis-inclined to purchase it."
Ironically, after laying out a seven page case for Saudi peak oil, Mr. Gfoeller ends his cable by clarifying that he is "far from embracing doomsday "Peak Oil" theorists". It's fascinating to see that while it's publicly taboo for US government officials to discuss peak oil, it seems to be privately discouraged as well.
The fourth cable was sent to the office of the Coordinator for International Energy Affairs at the US State Department on November 11th, 2009 by the US Embassy in Riyadh with the subject line "SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF DOE DEPUTY SECRETARY PONEMAN TO SAUDI ARABIA". In the cable, the embassy discusses a few of the efforts made to increase the Saudi oil production capacity, including "projects to bring non-conventional oil on line to meet the evolving needs of the international market and expand reserves, such as Saudi Arabian Chevron's project in the Partioned Neutral Zone with Kuwait to steam flood heavy oil in limestone cavities".
Enhanced oil recovery methods like steam injection are incredibly capital intensive and require tremendous amounts of energy to operate. These enhanced oil recovery methods have a much lower energy return on energy invested (EROEI) than traditional oil drilling, and are usually only undertaken on light crude fields once the field has peaked an on heavy crude fields once all of the "easy oil" is gone.
The embassy goes on to explain that Saudi Arabia's "electricity demand is growing at 8-10% per year". The tremendous recent increase in electricity demand and discusses a number of efforts which Saudi Arabia is undertaking from renewable energy to nuclear energy. The embassy states that "Saudi Arabia is actively considering the development of a civilian nuclear program, which a number of analysts believe is the only possibility the Kingdom has to generate sufficient electricity to meet projected demand from economic and population growth and increasing affluence without wastefully burning large quantities of fuel oil."
Politically, it might be difficult to set up nuclear reactors in a country which produced 15 of the 19 September 11th hijackers. There could obviously be a lot of international political push-back to a Saudi Arabian nuclear program, given the fact that the country is a hotbed for Islamist extremists who are keen on overthrowing the dictatorship. The cable notes that "in May 2008, the Secretary of State and the Saudi Interior Minister signed an agreement creating the Office of Program Management - Ministry of Interior (OPM-MOI). OPM-MOI is a State-led interagency effort to assist the Saudi MOI with protection of critical infrastructure, including Aramco's petroleum production and transport facilities, which were the subject of a terrorist attack on the Abqaiq production facilities in Dhahran in 2004." Clearly the US government is extremely worried about terrorists attacking key infrastructure targets in Saudi Arabia. Given this level of concern about terrorist attacks on traditional energy infrastructure, constructing and protecting nuclear infrastructure may be logistically risky and politically impossible. If the embassy is correct that without nuclear power, Saudi Arabia will only be able to meet the domestic electricity demand by burning more and more oil, it would fit well with the export cannibalization model I described earlier.
To summarize, these four leaked cables are significant not because of the information they contain, but because they reveal that the US government is extremely worried about a peak in Saudi Arabian oil production. Nearly 1/4 of the world's oil exports come from Saudi Arabia, and when the country reaches peak oil, it's almost guaranteed that the rest of the world has reached a peak as well. These cables reveal that Saudi Arabian peak oil could occur much sooner than most people anticipate. The main factors which are accelerating the approach of this peak are:
Overstated Saudi reserve estimates due to economic and political pressures
Large decline rates in most Saudi fields
Difficulty in adding additional production capacity to offset these declines
Export cannibalization from rising internal oil demand
Because of the rising, inelastic oil demand from the developing world, the approach of a Saudi peak will likely be met with a series of oil price spikes followed by demand-destruction-induced recessions. This process is known as the "Bumpy Plateau"; if you're interested in reading more, please see my post Profit from Peak Oil's Bumpy Plateau.
Labels: Bumpy Plateau, Demand Destruction, Egypt, Oil Shock, Peak Oil, Price Spike, Saudi Arabia, Wikileaks
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WEATHER BLOG: Storms possible tonight/tomorrow, heat cranks up next week
by: Trevor Sonnier
Posted: May 18, 2019 / 10:28 PM CDT / Updated: May 19, 2019 / 02:43 AM CDT
With the exception of a few isolated storms popping up across the area earlier this afternoon, things have been mostly quiet on the radar for Acadiana. A strong line of storms has continued to blossom across eastern Texas this afternoon, continuing to produce the chance for severe storms across eastern Texas, Arkansas, and northwestern Louisiana through the nighttime hours.
A tricky forecast through the next 24 hours as high-resolution models are split on the evolution of this storm complex. Some models try to dissipate the complex later tonight, just west of the Sabine river, before later regenerating it across Acadiana tomorrow morning/early afternoon, while others keep this complex mostly north of Acadiana through tomorrow afternoon. With the upper-level impulse moving over the area, albeit mainy north of Acadiana, it still makes sense to keep a decent storm chance in the forecast for tomorrow. I would not be surprised, however, to see storms stay mostly north of Acadiana for tomorrow. Otherwise, it will be another hot and humid day with highs climbing into the upper 80s under partly cloudy skies.
Only isolated storm chances Monday and Tuesday as south winds and just enough low-level moisture may be present for a sea-breeze type storm or two. Expect temperatures to be near 90 degrees both Monday and Tuesday, depending on the cloud cover. Another frontal boundary looks to stall over Texas Tuesday, but it appears most of that rain will stay west of Acadiana.
Wednesday through Saturday, a significant dome of high pressure will develop across the southeastern U.S. This sinking air will produce highs in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees in several locations across the southeastern U.S. by the end of next week. We'll be on the western flank of this, so I'm expecting temperatures to be in the 91-94 degree range, especially over the eastern areas of Acadiana, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Feels like temperatures on these afternoons will be in the upper 90s. Summer is definitely here!
~Meteorologist Trevor Sonnier
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RIP, 'Marvel Heroes': Disney Is Shutting Down The 'Marvel Diablo' Online Game
15 November 2017, 7:09 pm EST By Vincent Lanaria Tech Times
The end of Marvel Heroes, which is also known as Marvel Heroes 2016 and Marvel Heroes Omega, is now set in stone, as Disney announced that it's shutting down the Diablo-style MMO based on the Marvel franchise.
As to why the online game met an untimely end, it's not because of a dwindling user base, per se. Rather, it's because Marvel and Disney had to cut ties with the developer Gazillion Entertainment.
Broken Relations Resulted In 'Marvel Heroes' Demise
In an email to Kotaku, a Marvel representative explained why Marvel Heroes is being closed down.
"We regret to inform our Marvel Heroes fans that we have ended our relationship with Gazillion Entertainment, and that the Marvel Heroes games will be shut down. We would like to sincerely thank the players who joined the Marvel Heroes community, and will provide any further updates as they become available," they wrote.
However, it doesn't really say much beyond that. In other words, it's unclear why the relationship with the studio behind Marvel Heroes had to end. There's even no comment on exactly when the MMO will go offline for good.
To no one's surprise, there's also no word regarding the future of the game, whether it'll be continued under a new name with a different developer or not. That one is a bit of a stretch, though. No one in their right mind will shut down a game and announce a new one in the same sentence, after all.
By "further updates," Marvel presumably means how Marvel Heroes will go out with a bang.
Marvel Heroes is a free-to-play MMO that rolled out to the PC in 2013, and it was ported to the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One in 2017.
It features a wide range of playable Marvel characters, and it's not just the more popular ones such as Iron Man, The Hulk, Wolverine, Spider-Man, Thor, and Captain America but also lesser known characters such as Squirrel Girl, Magik, and Moon Knight — but the matter of knowing or not knowing them ultimately depends on the fan, of course.
The End Was Seen Coming From A Mile Away
According to Kotaku, two former Gazillion Entertainment employees and one who's still currently onboard confirmed that a minimum of three rounds of layoffs took place. Others said that they were simply asked to stop showing up at the office.
That more or less explains why the developer failed to post four weekly community updates, kick off the Halloween event, and add the expected Thor: Ragnarok movie content to the game. On top of that, two community managers suddenly went missing.
On an interesting note, that also sheds light on why the Marvel Heroes user base gradually shrank from about 12,000 players in 2013 to around 800 players in 2017, according to Steam Charts.
At the very least, former Marvel Heroes creative director Jeff Donais told Kotaku that the layoffs "would definitely not be the fault of the internal men and women who actually worked on the game itself or served the customers."
Marvel, Disney, Gazillion Entertainment, Marvel Heroes
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Marvel Finally Releases 'Black Panther' Teaser Trailer: Watch The King Of Wakanda In Action [Video]


The Honourable Denis Lebel, Minister of Infrastructure, Communities and Intergovernmental Affairs and Minister of the Economic Development Agency of Canada for the Regions of Quebec, on behalf of the Honourable Bal Gosal, Minister of State (Sport), today announced $175,000 in funding for Golf Canada. This funding, provided through Sport Canada's Hosting Program, supports the hosting of the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) Canadian Open.
The 105th edition of the tournament will be held in Montréal, Quebec, from July 21 to 27, 2014.
The Government of Canada contributed more than $827,000 to Golf Canada in 2013-2014 through Sport Canada's Sport Support Program.
In 2013-2014, Sport Canada's Athlete Assistance Program supported 17 golf athletes with living, training, tuition, and special needs expenses.
The Royal Canadian Golf Association, commonly known as Golf Canada, is recognized as the national sport governing body for golf. Founded in 1895, it is a not-for-profit national sport organization based in Oakville, Ontario.
"Canada is home to some impressive golfers, and hosting this prestigious tournament provides them with the opportunity to compete against the best in the world in front of a home crowd. We are proud to support the RBC Canadian Open and hope that all the athletes and fans have an enjoyable experience in Montréal."
"We are pleased to support Golf Canada's hosting of the RBC Canadian Open, which provides world-class competition for our elite athletes. Thank you to all the athletes, coaches, officials, volunteers, and fans who have made this tournament truly memorable."
"On behalf of Golf Canada and everyone involved with the 105th playing of Canada's National Open Golf Championship at The Royal Montreal Golf Club, we are proud to have the continued support of Sport Canada as a partner in the RBC Canadian Open. For more than a century, our National Men's Open Golf Championship has been a rallying point for Canadian golf, providing our top amateur and professional athletes the opportunity to compete against the world's best golfers while leaving a significant charitable legacy in our host communities."
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I have created a virtual machine using vmware workstation for CP/M-86. I have it configured with 2 floppies and a 8 meg hard drive. I have it up and running okay. Most of the programs work, but with some of the programs I get a "MEMORY NOT AVAILABLE" error when I try to execute the program. I tried the communications program "Terminal.cmd" and get the error, I also got the error with the "CBasic" compiler. Wordstart 3.3, TED Editor and others work fine.
When I boot to CP/M-86 it reports 639k of memory.
I created a floppy disk and loaded the same programs and they execute on my tweener withour errors. I believe I have configuration issues with vmware workstation.
I have also ordered a IDE Flash Card adapter and have an 8 meg flash card, going to try and install it as a hard drive for CP/M on my tweener. I know the drive has to be no more than 1024 logical sectors.
Sorry, I don't have any help to offer. I would appreciate it, once you do get it working, if you could share your VM machine 'cause I would love to use this, too. Right now my CP/M machine is either running an Apple emulator w/Z-80 support, or an Atari ST emulator with command shell software, or to actually pull out one of my old CP/M machines.
Vmware? Can you be more specific? Do you mean *the* VMware (ESXi) or the generic term for an emulator? Tell us more about the network, OS, memory allocation, and otherplatform details.
"Memory not available" likely means your memory map for one thing is not the memory map used for another, cbios stuff.
I installed CP/M-86 on VMWare's Workstation Version 8, but I think it would work just as well on their free Virtual Machine Player. VM Workstation Host is installed on Windows 7 premium. The guest is configured with 640 MB Memory, a single processor, CD/DVD set to autodect, two 1.44 floppies. I booted up to BIOS and configured the first hard drive as user with 512 Cylinders, 8 Heads and 171 Sectors for 36MB Drive. I disabled Multi-Sector Transfers, LBA Control, 32 Bit I/O, Ultra DMA Mode and the transfer mode is set to Standard.
I then used 22Disk running under MSDos 6.22 in a virtual host to add the additional programs to the floppy image I downloaded. I did have to convert the the image into a different track order (no alternating heads, just one side and then the second side, prior and after adding the programs with 22Disk.
I used the Utility HDMaint on the Floppy Image to partition the hard disk and then PIP to copy the files to the hard disk. It boots okay. I did configure a virtual com port, but I am not sure I have it configured correctly.
I tried a few of the programs I had loaded using 22Disk. WordStar 3.3 works fine, do did the Text Editor Ted. I tried a communications program named Terminal.Cmd and recieved the error. I also tried a program ComSet.Cmd, so I may have some issues with defining a virtual serial port.
When I tried to load Microsoft Basic, it crashed the virtual host. I am going to experiment with some other programs, hopefully to get a better understanding of what I am doing wrong.
If anyone is interested I will be happy to post any of my files.
awesome, thanks for the details. I thought you'd have to do that on XP. I had been talking to a friend about setting up a VICE emulator to run C-64 on VMware too, I better get cracking.
As far as your MS BASIC issue, you may have a bad disk or a re-located BIOS version, who knows. I bet you'll have to deal with this kind of thing, but it has nothing to do with the emulator. Does your software work in an actual machine running CP/M? I'd want to try that if you have one. I don't like to make promises I can't keep due to my busy schedule, but I or someone could possibly send you another version of the MS BASIC software to try.
Yes it does, MBasic does not give the memory error, it crashes the guest. I tried DR's basic compiler CB86 version 2.2 and it compiled a source deck okay. I do have the assembler source for the Terminal Program, I thought I would take a look at it after the holidays.
Okay after a few hours on working on the Virtual Machines I now have CP/M-86 1.1 installed on VMWare workstation 8 and Windows 7 Virtual PC. The problem I had with the "MEMORY NOT AVAILABLE" I believe had to do with how 22Disk was writing the virtual floppy. I switched to CPMTools to create the floppy added the programs I wanted and then I converted the the image into a different track order (no alternating heads, just one side and then the second side for the Virtual Floppies and everything seems to work.
I am going to compose some notes on what I did to create the Virtual Machines. Post the notes, the virtual machines images and the virtual floppies for VMWare, VirtualPC and CPMTools on my FTP site.


DevZen, based in Thatcham, Berkshire, UK, was formed in February 2009 to fill a growing need for the development of websites, and other computer services, for small (and local) organisations and businesses. Staff and contractors that work for DevZen are highly qualified and experienced professionals. DevZen will always put the client at the centre of any and all projects. Since our formation we have developed several websites, trained staff in various companies and consulted with local businessess.
DevZen is known in the area as a both a website development, primarily using the Drupal Content Management System (CMS) and IT training company. However, we are able to not only offer these services but a range of computer related services.


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Ryan Adams, St. Vincent, the Black Keys + More Say Goodbye to David Letterman
Emily Tan Published: May 21, 2015
Frederick M. Brown / Jason Merritt (2), Getty Images
David Letterman said his final goodbyes on the Late Show on Wednesday night (May 20), and as many of us tuned in to see him do his final opening monologue and give the last Top Ten list, the music community also shared its thoughts about his final episode.
Considering the late night host's long list of bands and artists who've been on the show, it's not a surprise that so many musicians joined the #ThanksDave conversation on social media. While Ryan Adams and St. Vincent reminisced about the times they performed on the show, TV on the Radio and Albert Hammond Jr. sent Dave off with well wishes for his retirement.
"Seems like a dream that I got to be a part of your show! Enjoy retirement. TV won't be the same without you," Hammond wrote on Instagram:
The National pointed out that Letterman was their first ever TV performance while the Alabama Shakes remembered the first time they performed "Hold On" on the stage in 2012. Eddie Vedder posted behind-the-scenes pictures of his last performance, and the Foo Fighters, who were the actual final musical guests, shared a photo of the band before they got in their tuxes to perform "Everlong" last night.
Check out just a fraction of the music world's gratitude toward David Letterman below:
So Long, Dave, and Thanks For the Mu
Source: Ryan Adams, St. Vincent, the Black Keys + More Say Goodbye to David Letterman
Categories: Music, News, TV
Yakima Police Chief Talks Safety Issues In Open Letter To Community
Luke Warm Real Estate Sales Expected To Get Hot This Spring


Remote Control RV Leveler is rated 2.3 out of 5 by 3.
Wireless remote leveler with 30'+ range levels front-to-back and side-to-side simultaneously.
Position base inside RV and use handheld remote to see from outside when RV is level. Red LEDs tell you when a corner needs to be lifted or lowered; green LEDs show when RV is level. Eliminates need for a helper when leveling your RV. Remote stores inside the 8 ½"L x 5 ½"W x 2 ½"H base. Requires two AAA batteries and one 9-volt battery (batteries sold separately).
Rated 1 out of 5 by ejt2s from Don't Bother Bought this, thinking it would make setup easy and was I disappointed. On my first trip out with my new remote leveler following the instructions I setup my Travel trailer. Then I pulled out by trusty Torpedo Level. Craftsman Torpedo Level; and my Bulls Eye Level (Ace) that I have been using and trust. The camper was off. It may be OK for a travel trailer without a slide out.
Rated 1 out of 5 by Nicolas Restrepo from RV leveler Bought the thing because it seems like a godsend. It was, the first 2 times! Or at least the level was close enough that I was fine with it. It was "leveled" but close enough by the third time I pulled it out, my RV was so out of level it was easily visibly out of level but this thing was telling me it was good! I leveled it with old fashion bubble levels and this thing was flashing red lights telling it was off level. So out of curiosity I manually moved the device itself to see where it thought level should be and it was not even close! I wouldn't even be able to leave a glass on the counter if i went by it. So, I started looking into how to recalibrate it... its electronic, it would need to recalibrate eventually, right? Nope, zero way to recalibrate this thing. All electronic levels will need to recalibrate at some point, not this one, useless once it goes out of whack... which it was 3 uses for me. I dont have my receipt so now i have a dog chew toy, I guess.
Rated 5 out of 5 by Sheldon Crawford from Great value My trailer came equipped with the "Useless level up system" don't buy the level up... its useless. But this thing works great, amazing. And even better, you can carry the remote part with you as you adjust your jacks, leveling your trailer. I highly recommend it.
Does this work on a travel trailer?
Is there anything special you need to make this work?
This is universal. No, just position base inside RV and use handheld remote to see from outside when RV is level.
The leveler base(white section) is placed on the floor in the center of your RV. The remote is carried along, each leveler is adjusted until the light turns green on the remote. All of the green lights will be on when the RV has been fully leveled.


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By Laura Mullikin
In Art Talks, Galleries
San Diego Mayor Declares Sept. 28 Alejandro Salazar Day
Alexander Salazar knew September was going to be an exciting month. As part of National Hispanic Heritage Month, which runs Sept. 15 to Oct. 15, the world-renowned Latino artist and international [...]
In ASD17, Education, Events, Meet the Artist, Show Recap
ASD 2017 Day 2: Find Your Inspiration Here
The first full show day at Art San Diego was a huge success. One of the leading cultural events in Southern California, Art San Diego inspired attendees from all over the world with its Art Labs, [...]
In Art Lab, Art Talks, Show Recap
Art San Diego 2017: Opening Night Recap
The new Art San Diego kicked off last night with the Opening Night Preview Party, and more than 3,500 collectors, gallery owners, art dealers, and cultural connoisseurs were there to experience [...]
In Art Lab, Art Talks, ASD17, Education, Events, Meet the Artist, Mix and Mingle, Preview
From Setup to Showtime: Art San Diego Premieres Tonight
Excitement has been building for months—and we got the show built at the Del Mar Fairgrounds just in time for the Opening Night Preview Party! Do you have your tickets yet to the hottest art [...]
In Art Talks, ASD17, Education
Expand Your Knowledge Base at Art San Diego
Art San Diego features an impressive array of specially curated Art Talks, offering you an inside look at the artistic experience by way of panel discussions, conversations, and provocative [...]
In Education, Events, Meet the Artist
Get Up Close and Personal with the Artistic Process at Art San Diego
At Art San Diego, not only will you see thousands of new works from contemporary artists, galleries, and art publishers from across the globe, but you will also get the rare opportunity to talk [...]
In Galleries, Preview
A Focus on Photography at Art San Diego
When you think of fine art, the first mediums that come to mind are probably paintings, sculpture, and glassworks. However, some of the world's best abstract, contemporary, and realist [...]
In ASD17, Galleries, Preview
From a Garage in Long Island to the Walls of the Wyland Center
Most people keep sports equipment, seasonal decorations, and office and school supplies in their garage. Not Arthur Pinajian. In the one-car garage and attic of the Bellport, Long Island, [...]
In Art Lab, ASD17
ASD17 Art Lab – Metamorphosis of the Migrant Era
José Hugo Sánchez is a border crosser. Literally, he crosses borders every time he travels from his home in Mexico to his home in the United States. Conceptually, he crosses borders in his work [...]
An Inside Look at the Landscape of the Art World
When you think about landscape art, you probably picture works that capture the beauty of mountains, valleys, trees, rivers, and forests. Yet landscapes—especially the ones created by the [...]


We are here to take your event to the next level. See what others are saying out Conn's Catering and Events!
Everything was perfect. The staff checked in with us several times. They were friendly and extremely accommodating. The food was fantastic! The atmosphere could not have been better. The fire in the fire place and your decor in the serving room was perfect. All the planning and your help made the rehearsal dinner a perfect event. All my guests were so impressed!
As always everything was great. Even when some adjustments needed to be made with set-up, you and your team were all over it and made it happen. The service Nick, Gabe and the others provided was wonderful. Always where I could find them and ready to help. The food was delicious as always. No matter how many times I serve that chicken, it's still a favorite. I love coming to your venue because I know I don't have to worry about anything. It makes my life so much easier.
I wanted to take a few moments to share our appreciation for the beautiful work provided by you and your staff at our Annual World's Fair Event. It is obvious that Conn's Catering approaches each event with creativity and professionalism. Special attention was given to the appetizer station which provided a lovely atmosphere for the cocktail hour. The entrée was an ample portion, good quality ingredients and very tasty. Dessert was delicious and was consistent with our Caribbean theme.Staff members were hardworking, well organized and pleasant! Thank you for another great meal!!
Omg once again soooo happy! The ziti was AMAZING!! Your guy was fantastic too! Have a great weekend!


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Q: Handling device communication and GUI updates separately in C# I'm developing an application that scans images from connected scanners on well defined time intervals, say every 5 minutes, for a specified amount of time. While my app is running I have a label (timerlabel) counting down the total time of the project left, and this is handled by a DispatcherTimer which updates the label every second.
The scanners are handled by another DispatcherTimer which every five minutes will call a function Scan() for each scanner. When this function is called the scanning starts, but the GUI stops updating, and the timerlabel freezes for the duration of the scan. When it starts again it just keeps counting down, not having registered the time that elapsed when the scanning was in progress.
How can I make the timerlabel keep running while the scanning is in progress?

A: Try spawning a background thread. Instead of havinhg your DispatchTimer call Scan() directly, have it call BeginInvoke() on a delegate or lambda that calls Scan(). Now, Scan() will run in a different thread, leaving the UI thread free to respond to graphics messages.
If Scan() will update UI controls, such as images or textbox text, you will need to have any such logic encapsulated in a delegate that you pass to your window's Invoke() method. This will prevent "cross-threading", which is dangerous when dealing with the UI and causes exceptions to be thrown by the runtime.

A: Although not being sure to get the full story I would try to start your Scan() method by a BackgroundWorker, which has support for progress metering via delegates baked in, created when the corresponding DispatchTimer() has fired.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


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akka-showcase
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Example of usage of Akka


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Get Connected with Crux Student Ministry
This is a night when all students come together as a whole for worship, fun, fellowship, and more! There will be time to be with your small group as well. Crux youth group gatherings Sundays 6:30-8pm.
Bring your friends and we'll see you there!
Connect with Our Youth Pastor
CRUX is the name of our student ministry at Christ the King Church. While it means cross, its meaning goes much deeper. At the center of who we are stands the Cross of Christ. In our lives, we come to those points, those intersections that we see as change points. That is a CRUX – the point of change, decision… no turning back. When we encounter Jesus, when we follow Him, we come to the CRUX point of our lives… the point where Jesus encounters us! Our goal is to show students Jesus, for them to see where Jesus intersects with their lives and their community of believers, to develop in them that turning point where they seek to follow Jesus, learn from Him, and then go out and do what He did, not just as an adolescent but throughout their entire lives.
Crux Student Ministry is for Middle and High School students in grades 6-12. Through weekly events and gatherings, Bible studies, discipleship training, retreats, camps, mission trips, service projects, concerts, and more, Crux seeks to equip students for God-glorifying lives that will bring real change to their community.
Youth 2023 Winter Calendar
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The Fishing UK app team have worked with many companies over the years to bring you swift reviews on the latest products that may not be seen in your Angling stores.
This is a review about a storage solution by the well known company NiteIze who have an incredible amount of products which can be found at www.niteize.com.
Today we will be reviewing the Gear Line, a multi functional system that enables quick access to your products, keeping them safe and sound for when they are needed.
In short the Gear Line is a 4ft piece of tacticle webbing which hangs in your desired area via two gear ties. The webbing contains multiple hoops which house the included s-biners.
The biners come in a selection of sizes and colours to suit any product that you wish to hang. On a recent camping trip I tested mine out over my hammock and it worked wonders. Everything in needed in perfect reach.
Storing a torch, phone, keys and the large can of stella which held beautifully on the ring pull. I was the envy of my fellow campers who, on many occations had to exit their nest to reach for another tinny.
I guess that when I am on the bank, This product will be used to store such items like a torch, phone, cup, keys and some loo roll, rig wallet and my handy fishy towel. All the essentials ready and waiting to be used. In prep for a night away, I have tied a small piece of leather to my baiting needle ready to be hooked as I seem to lose these on a regular basis. Even my weighing scales may be hung up, but I may not wish to tempt fate.
Although this product could seem a little pointless, you really wont know how you have managed without it. It is simple, packs away small and only weighs 4.48oz.
Some may worry about how much room this will take up? There is potential to attach this to your guy line of your bivvy, you will then have even better access to all your gear when it is needed most and can bring it in at bed time.
At 19.99, it is not a bad price. The s-biners are good quality, they can hold a fair bit of weight too. The webbing, good luck on trying to break that!
For a lightweight storage solution, I really do rate this item. It is cheap, lightweight and does exactly what it says on the box.
For more information go to www.niteize.com and also check out www.fishhere.co.uk the top fishing website.
Have I told you that we also have an app? Check the link below and get downloading the best fishing app in the UK.


Cheeko Draught Excluder is the perfect accessory for any wooden kennel owner. Draught excluders are a plastic flap designed to attach to the kennel door, stopping cold draughts blowing in and keeping your dog cosy and warm.
Available in various sizes: Small 36cm x 24cm. Medium 44cm x 33cm. Large 57cm x 38cm.
Prevents cold draughts from entering kennel.
Helps aid your dog in keeping cozy and warm.
Only suitable for fitting to Cheeko dog kennels.
Small draught excluder fits small cheeko kennel.


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Home UK Casino News LeoVegas Partners with Manchester City and Inter Milan
LeoVegas Partners with Manchester City and Inter Milan
UK Casino News
September has been a busy month for LeoVegas. Among other news, the online casino and sportsbook applied for de-listing after new owners MGM controlled more than 90% of the company's shares. But additionally, the brand has shared some exciting news – especially for football fans. The betting site has partnered with two great football clubs for the 22/23 season: Manchester City and Inter Milan. Here we take a closer look at the new LeoVegas partners and an exclusive bonus to celebrate.
Manchester City Partnership
The first LeoVegas partner announcement came on September 8th. It was then announced that the casino and sportsbook has entered a partnership with Premier League champions Manchester City. The team is a clear favourite in the UK and internationally both in the Premier and Champions League. Now, LeoVegas will feature on the men's first team kit and in the Etihad Stadium. With Man City and LeoVegas both being leaders in their industries, the partnership was described as a natural choice.
Inter Milan Partnership
The second LeoVegas partnership was announced on September 20th. The news was then shared that LeoVegas will also be a betting partner of the Italian football club Internazionale Milano. The Serie A club, more commonly referred to as Inter Milan, is also a global favourite with 19 Serie A titles as well as some European Cup and Champions League wins. For the 22/23 season, LeoVegas will benefit from increased visibility from advertising and promotions.
An Exclusive Betting Bonus
In order to properly celebrate the new LeoVegas partners, the sportsbook offers players a unique sports bonus. Starting from September 20th and all the way until the 28th of May 2023, you can get a 10% profit boost on all Manchester City games. All you need to do is to claim the offer and bet up to £20 on a Man City game. If the bet wins, LeoVegas will increase your winnings by 10% up to £200.
Since the Inter Milan partnership was announced only today, there does not seem to be any exclusive bonus released yet. But we expect players to benefit from similar perks for Inter Milan games too, with lots of promotions coming up.
Celebrate at LeoVegas


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Work John McDermott August 10, 2016
App-Ed: When Your Favorite App Is Acquired (and Killed)
Sunrise was my lifeline, my calendar. And now it's gone.
Productivity-wise, technology is a crapshoot. It aims to make life easier and more efficient, but every new app and device comes replete with its own set of problems. There are profiles to complete, features to master, operating systems to upgrade, friends to follow and a new batch of push notifications designed to distract us from our everyday lives.
But every so often comes an app that delivers on that promise. An app that truly does make things more streamlined. An app that's organized, and saves us the time and anxiety of having to sift through the detritus of our digital lives.
For me, that was Sunrise. An amazing calendar app that aggregated my personal, professional and Facebook schedules into one glorious, easy-to-use to interface, Sunrise, without exaggeration, has made my life simpler and saner.
And now it's being ripped, unwillingly, from my thumbs.
Microsoft acquired Sunrise for a reported $100 million last February, and will be shutting down Sunrise at the end of this month. My favorite app will be integrated into Microsoft's pre-existing Outlook app, meaning the only to people to use it will be 50-year-old account managers who still cling to their Blackberrys and wouldn't appreciate a beautiful UX design if it fell into their laps — as Sunrise apparently just has.
To new beginnings. https://t.co/0a5zGgL6zL
— Sunrise (@sunrise) May 11, 2016
Sunrise was perfect for me from the moment I met it. The interface was elegant, the user experience intuitive. I didn't need a tutorial to learn how to set a new appointment and email the other guests on the invite — the process was so simple I was able to correctly execute it on the first try. I didn't need to switch back and forth from my personal and office calendars. Both could manipulated from the same magical place.
Sunrise even offered a shockingly not-annoying Facebook integration. I never forgot a friend's (or enemy's) birthday: They appeared in a list every day when I opened the app.
There were delightful stylistic touches to the app. If I named an appointment "Drinks," Sunrise would change the meeting icon to a martini glass. For "Dinner," it was a knife and a fork. "Interview," a pair of speech bubbles. It was just pleasant to look at.
Any suggestions for calendar app for OCD ADD person who has 2 weeks until the Sunrise app shuts down?
— Christine (@christinelu) August 9, 2016
As a smartphone addict with a slight OCD streak, I found Sunrise's orderliness to be like a morphine drip to the pleasure centers of my brain. Its looming disappearance fills me with dread.
Part of what upsets me most is that I invested so much time in Sunrise, telling it some of my deepest, darkest secrets. Every app requires its users do a lot of work upfront for it to serve them well. We have to integrate the app with our various social media accounts and upload a profile pic and tailor the settings to our liking. Only then does the app provide us the usefulness we crave. I did exactly that with Sunrise, giving it access to my Google, Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and Eventbrite accounts.
Sunrise's blog post about shuttering the app reads, quite literally, as a Dear John letter: "It's almost time to say goodbye," the headline reads. Sunrise will be removed from the app store over the next few days and the app will be officially shut down on August 31, the entry reads. "As heartbreaking as this sounds, we're hard at work bringing the magic of Sunrise to the Outlook apps, with all your most loved features — interesting calendars, event icons and calendar apps." Yes, for some of us, "heartbreaking" is spot on.
RIP Sunrise Calendar. This is proof God doesn't exist.
— aditi (@AditiSNaik) August 8, 2016
It is 2016 and syncing calendars is still ridiculously difficult RIP Sunrise
— Jeva Lange (@Jee_vuh) May 19, 2016
Dear Microsoft I already hated you but now I hate you even more for killing off the BEST calendar app there was on the market RIP SUNRISE 💀🌄
— Liza (@o_Lizzie_o) May 12, 2016
My friends assure me there a lot of other calendar apps out there in the app store, but I'm not sure any of them are for me. Which one will show me a holistic view of how my day should pan out? The Calendar app that came preinstalled on my iPhone? Please. Sunrise's blog entry says all of its wonderful features will, over time, be transported to Microsoft's pre-existing Outlook app, but it'll be a cold day in hell before I purposefully ensnare myself in the Microsoft suite of software products.
We tend to mock those who have close relationships with their devices, and it's probably justifiable. No one should be so attached to a piece of an inanimate technology. But such a relationship makes sense given all the time we spend and effort we put into our smartphones and the apps they're home to. Great apps weave themselves into our daily routines like friends, partners and co-workers, so when they're suddenly no longer available to us, heartbreaking may not seem like hyperbole.
Rest in peace, Sunrise. May you go gently … into the sunset.
John McDermott


Developing the content that will be used for your content and SEO strategy will determine a variety of outcomes. Internal resources and professional services are churning out an abundance of material in hopes to achieve specified outcomes for their respected websites. So what can you gain from using quality content?
In general sense, you want to use the key word terms or phrases that search engines pick up on. However one fundamental aspect that content and copy-writers tend to forget is the actual audience that they are delivering the article to. Be sure to develop high quality, well written articles that satisfies both the interests of the reader and incorporates the appropriate keywords that your prospected readers are typing into search engines. The common keyword searches will help increase the overall web ranking of the page.
One of the main purposes of producing content is to generate or increase the amount of traffic to your website. With the keywords ranking and the quality of content used to produce meaningful and sought after information, more consumers will be discovering your business from a variety of sources. These would include stumbling across blog posts and press release articles in their search activity, prompting them to the appropriate websites.
The internet is the world's largest shopping mall and the quality of the content on your website will determine if any visitors make any purchases. In the scheme of things, all the work you put into attracting visitors to your website was aimed at increasing sales, so be sure that the content is user-friendly and appealing to those prospected customers. General aesthetics and simple navigation generally influences user perceptions, so if the content is unorganised and unappealing, this will result in a negative response and those customers are going to go elsewhere.
Now that you have improved your page ranking in search engines and increased the amount of traffic heading toward your website, you have the opportunity to reap the sales and grow your income to higher quantities.