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le-monastierpinmories » For children » The Dog in the Wood
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by Monika Schröder
Monika_Schröder Literature_and_Fiction English
Monika Schröder
Front Street, Incorporated (November 1, 2009)
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The dog in the wood, Monika Schröder.
In recent years, several books about the experiences of my parents' generation of war children have been published in Germany. In the early 1990s, after Germany's reunification, when traveling to the East became easier, my father and I visited Schwartz and interviewed eyewitnesses about the Russians' arrival.
In the distance Fritz heard again the droning of engines. The front was coming closer, and the east wind blew the noise of cannons, tanks, and gunfire toward their farm. The Russians would be there soon.
Covering a time period not trodden by authors yet, first-time author Monika Schröder sets her book in East Germany as WWII ends and the Russians begin their occupation
Jan 30, 2012 Alex Baugh rated it it was amazing. Shelves: world-war-2. The Dog in the Wood is a realistic look at what happened at the end of World War II to one family, told through the eyes of a child. Covering a time period not trodden by authors yet, first-time author Monika Schröder sets her book in East Germany as WWII ends and the Russians begin their occupation. The Dog in the Wood is written about a boy, Fritz, who lives with his mother, sister, and father's parents (his father died in the war) on a farm as he copes with the tremendous amount of uncertainty, upheaval, and loss that being occupied brings.
To read this book, upload an EPUB or FB2 file to Bookmate.
When the Russians come, where do you go? It is the end of April, 1945 in a small village in eastern Germany. The front is coming closer and ten-year-old Fritz knows that the Soviet Army's invasion of his family's home can be only a few days away. Grandpa Karl, a Nazi sympathizer, takes Fritz into the forest that surrounds the family farm to show him a secret. Under a tall pine tree, Grandpa Karl has dug a pit and covered it with branches. To read this book, upload an EPUB or FB2 file to Bookmate.
9 January 2010 ·. Related videos. PagesPublic figureAuthorMonika SchröderVideosTHE DOG IN THE WOOD - book trailer. Here is the trailer for SARASWATI'S WAY: Monika Schröder. Related PagesSee all. The Paisleys of New Delhi, India. 155 followers · Musician/band.
Local German supporters of the Bolshevik regime seize the Friedrich farm in the name of Communism, forcing Fritz's family to flee to the distant house of his grandmother, Oma Clara. Life there for Fritz is horrible, made even worse when Communists arrest his mother and Lech, the Polish farmhand who has tended the Friedrich land, for hiding weapons.
When the Russians come, where do you go? Fritz loves his vegetable garden. His tomatoes are delicious, he's attentive to the asparagus, and he remembers how to keep slugs off the strawberries.
Genre: Historical prose, Children's prose, On War. Read a fragment illustrations. The garden was at the south end of the farm, behind the barn, overlooking the pond and the family's forest in the distance. Fritz imagined the Russians coming through the forest. Annotation: Monika Schröder THE DOG IN THE WOOD Für meinen Vater 1 In the distance Fritz heard again the droning of engines. Would they arrive in tanks? Would there be air raids?
When the Russians come, where do you go? Fritz loves his vegetable garden. His tomatoes are delicious, he's attentive to the asparagus, and he remembers how to keep slugs off the strawberries. But his tranquil life on the family farm is about to end—the Russians are near, Hitler has died, and known Nazi sympathizers like the Friedrich family brace for the Bolsheviks to take over their town. Local German supporters of the Bolshevik regime seize the Friedrich farm in the name of Communism, forcing Fritz's family to flee to the distant house of his grandmother, Oma Clara. Life there for Fritz is horrible, made even worse when Communists arrest his mother and Lech, the Polish farmhand who has tended the Friedrich land, for hiding weapons. Though there is no evidence to support the accusation, Gertrude and Lech are taken away, and Fritz commits to finding where they are imprisoned. Despite the boy's heroic efforts, the story ends with one of the war's ambiguities: that Lech and Gertrude may not return home.Heavy footsteps sounded on the tiles in the hallway. Then three soldiers entered the living room. They all wore torn green jackets with small red flags sewn onto their sleeves. They shouted in Russian. Fritz held Mama's hand and tried to stay as close to her as possible on the sofa. One of the soldiers broke the glass of the sideboard with the butt of his rifle, took out the bottle of brandy, drank from it, and passed it to the others. They rummaged through the china cabinet, throwing the plates on the floor. . . . Mama held his hand with a firm grip. Suddenly, one soldier pointed his rifle at them. "No!" Mama screamed. Fritz held his breath. "Stojat!" Lech stepped toward the middle of the room, holding his arms up. —FROM THE BOOK
Cashoutmaster
The Dog in the Wood is a middle-grade book about a ten-year-old named Fritz. He lives in eastern Germany in April 1945. His Grandpa is a Nazi sympathizer, but his mother and older sister just want to run their farm without being bothered by Nazis or Russians. As the novel begins, it is announced that Hitler is dead, and the Russian soldiers will soon be arriving and invading.
The author notes that the novel is fiction, but the background for the story is based on research and eye-witness accounts. Because this is a middle-grade book, the author admits that the way the soldiers acted was toned down a bit (though there are hints at darker things occurring). She also notes, "Although the Germans who were adults during the Third Reich can be blamed for supporting a racist, violent, insane regime that brought on a destructive war of epic proportions, children were pawn in the events. They had to learn to live on despite their loss, grief, and fear."
And this is exactly what Fritz does. He lives through the farm being taken, his home being invaded, and even his mother and hired help being arrested for false crimes. He shows bravery and conflicting emotions that would be expected of a child living through this time—when all he really wants to do is garden in peace… and be a kid!
I enjoyed how the author wove in symbols and images to help show Fritz's development as the story progresses. Although the topic is grim, it was an enjoyable read in that it really helped to illustrate the difficulties of civilians trying to live during such a time. The content is slightly disturbing for young readers, but it's also an important part of history.
Cointrius
A fast-pacing and well-written book about the complicated ways that adults mess up children's lives. A Dog in the Wood sheds light on the Soviet occupation of East Germany beginning in 1945. I congratulate Monika Schroder on her moving first novel. Although I finished the book a week ago, I am still haunted by the hole in the woods and its meaning for Fritz and his family. I hope to read many more titles by this accomplished author.
Kiaile
This first novel by Monika Schroder (she has since written several more, including BE LIGHT LIKE A BIRD) picks a place and time in history that I don't know much about: 1945, in a German town about to be overrun by Russians, at the end of WW2. Fritz (age 10) just wants to see his tomato plants grow. His pro-Hitler grandfather is determined to fight the Russians until the bitter end, while his mother and most neighbors are tired of the war and can see Germany's defeat is unavoidable. When the Russians do enter the village, they bring upheaval, and Fritz and his extended family must adjust.
Schroder includes one incident (well handled, but still shocking) that makes me suggest this book for readers about 12 and up. There are any number of excellent books set around the time of World War 2, but few (that I am aware of) about Germans displaced by the Russian advance. Schroder writes multifaceted and interesting characters, and places the reader in the middle of a tumultuous time. The story doesn't tie things up nearly, but I found it an engaging read. Easy to recommend for mature 6th graders, or 7th or 8th grade fans of historical fiction.
About me: I'm a middle school/high school librarian
How I got this book: from the library
Gardataur
The Dog in the Wood is a fictional story set in Germany, just as World War II was coming to its horrific end. It's inspired by the life of the author's father and by her 1989 visit to the village of his birth. "I interviewed several eyewitnesses of the Soviets' arrival and occupation," Schroder writes in her author's note. "Most of their stories were more gruesome than the one I tell in the book." Her book tells a depressingly sad story about nine-year-old Fritz, a boy who lives with his mother, sister and grandparents on a rural German farm. His grandfather is a staunch Nazi supporter and when he realizes the Nazis have lost the war, he and his wife commit suicide in the barn. Fritz's life is thrown into chaos when the Soviets arrive. They move into his home, steal the cows, and dispossess the family of their farm. The narrative relays the many disappointments Fritz endures as he leaves the home and garden he loves and moves in with relatives. Just when he thinks life can get no worse, the Soviets accuse his mother of breaking the law and they march her away at gunpoint. Schroder's story is written for a 10-to-14-year-old audience but it's a difficult book for a young teen to digest. There is just no light at the end of the tunnel. Poor Fritz's misery only increases as the book progresses. Although a riveting read, the book is also an upsetting one and leaves the reader hanging at the end, with no firm sense of resolution. The reader does come away enlightened about the aftermath of the war and how difficult it was for ordinary Germans, but clearly it's a good thing Schroder spared us the gruesome, real-life stories she described in her author's note. Perhaps this story is better told in non-fiction, and geared towards adult readers who are more mature when it comes to handling the subject of war and the hardships it inflicted. Lauren Kramer
Kamick
The Dog in The Wood is a heartbreaking tale. The main character goes through so much heartache. He has to endure one sad thing after another. Set during World War II in East Germany. The characters have to
overcome so many horrible events in their lives. This is an interesting story. Similar stories have been written about the events that transpired during World War II. However, I have never heard things told from a young
child's point of view. It is hard to believe that one family could go through so much. I did like the many
different settings of the story. I like the way the characters interact with each other. Not all of them were the
"good guys". They were believable though. Although there is a lot of sadness in this story, there are also
some good things too. Intertwined with the sadness is love, friendship, loyalty, perseverance and so
much more. It seems a lot for people to have gone through. It's a very sad and touching story.
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FREELANCE RIGHTS: Et Tu, Brett?
Another old friend of mine is Brett Harvey, who is retiring as executive director of the American Society of Journalists and Authors. She worked for the Graphic Artists Guild and was on the National Executive Board of the National Writers Union when I was on the NWU staff.
In her declaration to the court last year in support of settlement approval, Brett said her ASJA responsibilities include "the dissemination of information about the class action lawsuit to writers -- both within the ASJA and outside the ASJA."
OK, Brett, don't criticize the settlement -- you can't do that -- but please commence disseminating.
What's the story behind your side's abrupt shift from "the C Reduction will never happen" to "the C Reduction could happen"? How many registered works were improperly counted as C's in the "prima face valid claims" value of $10.76 million, which itself is barely a million dollars under the $11.8 million cap that would trigger the C Reduction? How about asking some questions on behalf of the class "both within and outside ASJA" and doing some "dissemination of information"?


Contents: Samoa. A popular vacation resort, where groups of tourists arrive every week. The hotel owners' only care is to give these tourists the stay of their life - and of course to rid them of as much money as possible. Each round new tourists of various nationalities will arrive at the island, and new upgrades in the form of build tiles will be available to buy for your hotel. Players will simultaneously choose one of their price cards to play, which indicates both your bid for building a hotel upgrade, and the price you set on your hotel rooms. The tourists will of course seek out the cheapest hotels first, so you must carefully plan when to demand sky high prices, and when to drop prices slow in order to attract the tourists right under your opponents' noses. All the tourists have different personalities and abilities - so be sure to get the ones that benefit you the most. And of course you can enhance your hotel by building extra rooms, a swimming pool or perhaps a luxury suite? In the end it's the cash that counts. This is a fast and varied game of medium-light complexity, and as most decisions are made simultaneously by the players, the game has very little down time. Game Contents: 12 Flags (3 of each nationality), 13 Tourist cards, 1 Tie breaker card, 11 x 6 Price cards - one set for each player, 6 Hotel boards one for each player 18 x 4 Tourist chips 18 of each nationality, 19 Build tiles, Lots of Money (worth 1, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100) and 2 2x-tiles.


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'Our economy is stronger today than it was before the blockade'
December 14 2019 08:28 PM
economy blockade stronger
HE the Governor of Qatar Central Bank (QCB) Sheikh Abdullah bin Saoud al-Thani
QNA/Doha
HE the Governor of Qatar Central Bank (QCB) Sheikh Abdullah bin Saoud al-Thani said that the celebration of Qatar's National Day, which falls on December 18 each year, indicates that we did not and will not forget the great sacrifices made by the Founder and ancestors to achieve unity.
In statements to Qatar News Agency (QNA) on the occasion of Qatar National Day, the QCB Governor said: "The celebration of this glorious day of our history is a confirmation of our recognition of this day's distinctive nature, when our ancestors united to choose a seasoned leader to lead their triumphant march".
"The most important lessons to be learned from this occasion is that the celebrations allow our youth to learn about the hardship faced by our ancestors and the sacrifices they made in order to pave the way for us and future generations. The celebrations also instill in the them the ideals and great hopes that built our beloved country to enable them to follow the same approach, and emphasise the importance of choosing a wise, courageous and honest leader who maintains the interest of his people".
He said Qatar has faced many external dangers from neighbouring countries who tried to tear apart its unity and infringe on its sovereignty. "The people of this country, who believed in its unity and pride, were motivated to unite behind their wise leadership against the aggressors, in the past, and their attempts to dominate and control the state and its wealth, as is currently the case with the blockading countries".
HE Sheikh Abdullah bin Saoud al-Thani stressed that Qatar has made great progress in various fields since its independence. In the economic field, the country has achieved one of the fastest economic booms in modern history. Its GDP jumped from about QR10bn in 1975 to more than QR600bn now. It is currently the largest producer of liquefied gas in the world. It also has an advanced industrial sector, especially in the field of petrochemicals, iron, steel and aluminum, thus enjoying the highest per capita income in the world, in addition to having one of the strongest sovereign funds in the world.
He pointed out that the achievements were not limited to major economic boom; it extended to urban developments throughout the country as a result of the insightful vision of the leadership. During the past decade, the country has been able to modernise its infrastructure and establish extensive and modern networks of roads and bridges. Additionally, it has a large collection of modern hospitals, research centres, health centres and universities, in addition to the best seaport and airport and airline in the region.
He added that despite the unjust blockade imposed on Qatar for more than two years, the country has become stronger than before due to the wise leadership of His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani and the combined efforts of all the authorities and the support of the State to all sectors.
"Our economy is even stronger today than it was before the blockade. The state budget is currently experiencing a surplus after it had a deficit. Furthermore, the current account balance of payments is also witnessing a large surplus, which reflected positively on the international reserves and liquidity in foreign currency at Qatar Central Bank that declined by more than 20% during the first months of the blockade. International reserves and liquidity recorded at the end of October of this year was about $54.2bn, exceeding what it recorded before the unjust blockade when it was $45.7bn at the end of May 2017.
Regarding the efforts that come within the framework of the implementation of the Qatar National Vision 2030 and the current National Development Strategy 2017-2022, the Governor of QCB stated that the Bank, Qatar Financial Markets Authority and Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority launched The Second Strategic Plan for Financial Sector Regulation. This plan includes five main objectives: strengthening financial sector supervision and regulatory co-operation, developing financial markets and promoting financial innovation, maintaining the integrity of the financial system, promoting financial inclusion and developing human capital.
To achieve these objectives, the financial sector regulators are committed to interacting with changing economic conditions and facing emerging challenges, he said.
Last updated: December 14 2019 11:15 PM
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This vintage tooled leather blonde colored purse is from Mexico. Has detailed tooling throughout. Has the Aztec calendar on one side. Interior is leather lined with 3 interior compartments (one zip) and 2 zip pockets.


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Merkel, Mexico and MERCOSUR
Latin America's alternative to the United States has the 'most important politician in the world' leading it.
By Richard Palmer • June 14, 2017
Over the last weekend, German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited various Latin American countries. She was greeted warmly, largely due to Latin America being currently "on the market" for alternatives to the United States and President Donald Trump. This shift has come in the face of the United States' new protectionism stance.
Merkel stated she hoped for an early finish to a deal for a free-trade zone between Europe and mercosur, a South American free-trade bloc. This deal would create a free-trade zone with over a billion people in it. The deal had stalled, but the threat to Latin American economies from President Trump's protectionism could be the impetus to the deal's finalization.
Mexico's president stated that his country recognized the political leadership position of Merkel as one that wasn't restricted to Europe. Introductions given to Merkel throughout her trip ranged from "important leader" to "the most important politician in the world," as reported by German news site Deutsche Welle.
Another German politician making headway this week was the defense minister, Ursula von der Leyen. She met with her French counterpart and discussed the smart use of money from a newly created pan-European defense fund. Germany and France are looking to be the motor behind a European defense union.
The U.S. election and Brexit have shown Europe that it must take more responsibility for its own security. Watch for this trend to accelerate as Germany rises and the U.S. falls.
E-mail Richard Palmer
or Follow Richard Palmer on Twitter


PRESTO has started it's customer connect through the latest social media tool : Facebook.
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We at PRESTO have been at the forefront of innovation all through our 29 years of history, the latest being the implementation of a new ERP system in our factory, this would help in our enterprise resource planning leading to lower cost for the customer and better productivity leading to shorter delivery schedules. The highly advanced software ensures that we follow the best industry practices in our production flow thereby leading to better process selection and faster customer response. The exceptional credit goes to our dynamic director Mr. Gaurav Malhotra who conceived and piloted the entire implementation program along with the energetic IT & Accounts team. The successful launch marked a new system driven era at PRESTO !


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Asbestos Contractor
Grass Seeding / Hydroseeding
Environmental Rehabilitation Projects
N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway: Plant Search & Rescue, Horticultural and Rehabilitation Services
SLR Environmental Consulting / SANRAL
Commenced Oct 2016 - ongoing
In October 2016, SANRAL and SLR Consulting appointed Enviro-Lite Solutions (Pty) Ltd to provide Plant Search and Rescue, Horticultural and Rehabilitation services for the construction of greenfields sections of the above project. The appointment was for the Msikaba River haul/approach road corridors and bridge sites.
Overview of the Project Area:
The major works within the greenfields sections entail the construction of the Msikaba River Bridge (580 m bridge over a 185 m deep gorge) and Mthentu River Bridge (1 200 m long bridge over a 200 m deep gorge). In order to facilitate construction of the Msikaba and Mthentu river bridges and approach roads, construction of temporary haul roads is required. As mentioned above, construction of all other greenfields road sections and associated bridges will commence after initiation of the afore-mentioned works.
Msikaba river haul/approach road corridor and bridge site
The site is located within the Ngquza Hill Municipality of the Eastern Cape. Access to the southern haul/approach road corridor and bridge site is gained from the nearest town, Lusikisiki (located on the R61), along district road DR08024, of which the first 7 km portion is concrete surfaced and the remaining 17 km is gravel.
Access to the northern haul/approach road corridor and bridge site is gained from Flagstaff, along approximately 55 km of roads, starting on district road DR18023, of which the first 30 km is surfaced and passes through Holy Cross Mission. The remainder of the district roads to the study area comprises gravel roads.
Key Roles and Responsibilities
Establish and maintain a temporary plant nursery in each of the earmarked construction camp sites at the respective southern and northern banks of the Msikaba river, or in a suitable area as may be agreed with the Engineer and the project environmental team. Each nursery should include an adequate storage area;
Undertake the required tasks as set out in the Plant Search and Rescue Plan and Method Statement: Rehabilitation of Disturbed Watercourses, as appropriate to the Msikaba haul/approach road corridor and the respective bridge site;
Plant material listed as Protected, Vulnerable or Rare must be rescued, as appropriate. Additional plant species of special concern suitable for rehabilitation should be rescued;
Harvest plant material for mulching – i.e. for the purpose of introducing a cover material during hydroseeding, and to provide a protective layer for seeding – in areas which are to be denuded of vegetation during construction activities;
Harvest exposed and weathered rocks, as appropriate, for placement in suitable locations in disturbed areas at completion of the works;
Undertake seed collection and storage from the haul/approach road corridors, bridge sites and adjacent areas;
Undertake plant propagation of suitable species (from seeds and cuttings, as appropriate);
Undertake vegetative rehabilitation through reintroduction of rescued and propagated plant material and seeding, as appropriate; and
Undertake maintenance of rehabilitated areas by way of weeding, watering, and replanting and repair of damaged areas.
Plant Search and Rescue operations are conducted in accordance with the following Legal Requirements
National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act (Act 10 of 2004), including Threatened or Protected Species Regulations;
National Environmental Management Act (Act 107 of 1998);
National Forests Act (Act 30 of 1998);
Transkei Environmental Conservation Decree (Decree No 9 of 1992).
Project Stakeholders
Your partner specialising in environmental assessments & rehabilitation solutions
Enviro-Lite Solutions (Pty) Ltd | All Rights Reserved | M-Squared Designs


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Texas, Georgia, Florida Among Possibilities For Legalization in 2021
Published on January 1st, 2021 1:30 pm EST
Legal sports betting is quickly spreading across the United States, with more than two dozen states either offering sports betting already or having recently passed sports betting legislation.
The question is - which states might legalize sports betting in 2021?
To start, there are six states where voters have either voted for sports betting legalization or legislature has already been signed into law.
In Louisiana, most of the state's parishes voted to support legal sports betting, and there is an expectation that the first bets will be accepted sometime in 2021, tough lawmakers need to still work through the details of a regulatory structure.
In Maryland, voters said that they wanted legal sports betting in November of 2020, and lawmakers are working to figure out the logistics.
In North Carolina, in-person betting legislation is already on the books, though residents of the state are still waiting for tribal casinos to begin offering betting.
In South Dakota, voters went to the polls and agreed to legal sports betting, and now lawmakers are figuring out the details.
In Virginia, legislation is on the books and everything is ready to go, though the state's residents are still waiting for sportsbooks to be approved to operate in the state.
In Washington, legal sports betting legislation is already on the books, though the finer details are still being worked out.
These are the states that could offer their first sports bets in 2021.
There are a number of states that are considering sports betting legislation at the moment. They include states such as Florida, Georgia and Texas.
The appeal of this new lucrative revenue stream is too much for states to ignore, so you will likely have at least half a dozen states approving sports betting legislation in 2021.
As for the other states - states like Utah, Alaska and Nebraska, to name a few - they are likely years off from offering legal sports betting, if at all.
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Welcome to RIM Photography! I LOVE what I do and I think it shows through the images I capture. Whether sweetly reflective or engergetically exuberant, we tell the unique story of your South Carolina wedding day through beautiful story-telling imagery. I believe in living life JOYFULLY so expect a bit of fun along the way as we create the wedding pictures that truly reflect the beauty and emotion of your day.
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OH MY GOD WE ARE OBSESSED WITH OUR ENGAGEMENT PHOTOS!! They exceeded our expectations and we literally cannot stop looking at them! Renee couldn't have done a better job of finding us the perfect location to get the exact vibes we were going for. SO IMPRESSED! Definitely looking forward to her capturing our big day!
Absolutely love our wedding photos! We received them in a very timely manner as i have heard many stories from people that have hired other photographers of how long it took to receive their photos! Renee and Alison are very personable and we enjoyed having them as our photographers.
Renee was a pleasure to work with!! She was able to capture the client's day beautifully and captured all of the details of the wedding.
I had the pleasure of working Renee of RIM Photography and she was very professional and easy to work with. More importantly, she was able to truly capture the event in an artistic, unobtrusive and uniquely beautiful manner.
It is always a pleasure to work along side Renee. She is not only a talented, creative photographer, but a wonderful, caring person who is always looking out for the best interest of her clients. For anyone searching for someone to capture those special moments, I highly recommend Renee and RIM Photography.


On June 30, the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality announced the initial phase of the voluntarily metering program supported by the Delta Sustainable Water Resource Taskforce has been officially met.
MDEQ Office of Land & Water Resources Director and Delta Sustainable Water Resource Taskforce leader Kay Whittington stated, "MDEQ is excited that the producers in the Delta worked together to reached the initial 5 percent voluntary metering goal put forth by the Taskforce.
"This is a significant accomplishment and everyone who installed a meter is to be congratulated. We must continue that momentum to reach the other milestones of the voluntary metering program," she adds. "The next milestone is for everybody who installed meters by June 30 to report water use for 2014 to MDEQ by Feb. 1, 2015. Later this year, we will provide information and training on how to meet that reporting requirement.
MFBF President Randy Knight stated, "We cannot express how proud we are of the producers in the Delta area for stepping up to meet the goals of the voluntary metering program. We have now met our 5 percent goal by the initial deadline, and we will continue to pursue reaching the remaining 5 percent mark by December 2015. Farm Bureau policy supported a voluntary approach to collecting this information about our water use. We supported the proposal for a voluntary program offered by the Delta Sustainable Water Resource Taskforce, and the farm leaders in the Delta followed through on that agreement.
"Over the last year and a half, a large amount of time and resources was put forth by our volunteer leaders and staff to assure that we met these numbers," Knight says. "Many people did not think this goal could be reached voluntarily. However, the goal was indeed met. This proves that working together the Delta can unite toward a common effort.
For more information, contact Justin Ferguson, Commodity Coordinator – Cotton, Rice, & Soybeans, Regional Manager-Region One, MS Farm Bureau Federation, (601) 720-4238.


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Q: Error converting a numeric month into textural representation I am using the following code in php to convert the month in numeric to textural representation.
date('M',strtotime(8));

But for every digit I am getting 'Dec' as my month.
How should i make it work.
Thank you
Zeeshan

A:
But for every digit I am getting 'Dec' as my month.

That's no surprise: strtotime(8) will give you 0 - and that is January 1st, 1970, 0:00:00 UTC, in your local time zone (where it was still december at that point).
You could use
$month = 8;
date("M", strtotime("1970-$month-01"));

(the 1970 is totally irrelevant - it could be any year.)
Alternatively, maybe more beautifully, use mktime() as shown by nikic.

A: strtotime expects a date string, not a single month. You may use mktime to create your month:
 date('M', mktime(0, 0, 0, $month));

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Cat "Teaser" says "Don't even think about it!"
He's off the ground. --"I saw Fred use this thing and the door opened."
Older Lab mix "Shiloh" is standoffish. She knows what's coming!
The garden isn't totally trashed yet!
"I'm not really mean, I just have to look this way for awhile."
© Jo Hamilton 2000 Cyberstars.com. All rights reserved.


text:
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Women and peacebuilding
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Accounting and Finance Officer
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César is a Public Accountant and obtained his degree from the University of Cundinamarca.
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Can walking change the anatomy of your brain? Yes. Absolutely.
Can untreated high blood pressure increase your risk of Alzheimer's disease later in life? Yes. Absolutely.
Does our brain go through a remodeling during teenage years? Yes. Absolutely.
Is the simplistic concept that too much amyloid causes late-life Alzheimer's correct? No. Absolutely not.
Can too much alcohol prime your brain for getting Alzheimer's disease? Yes. Absolutely.


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In 2010 the world emitted 48 gigatonnes of greenhouse gases. So we decided to start our countdown to the last COP21 plenary 48 days beforehand. Every day until the last day of the Paris climate negotiations in December 2015, we will share an interesting fact from our own number crunching dungeons, and from those of others. The 48 facts touch on key negotiation items at COP21. Please share! Look out for #Facts4COP21 announced daily via our twitter account @ClimateCollege.
PS: After the tragedy of human suffering inflicted by other humans, we have changed our hashtag from #Facts4Paris to #Facts4COP21. The attacks in Paris on 13th November 2015 warrant different kinds of "facts" to be disseminated. Facts about a tolerant society, about a free society, about the differences between ISIL and Islam and about the root causes of terrorism. We do not have those facts. We hope that our facts can however be useful for another struggle of humanity: long-term climate change.
Facts4COP21: Paris Agreement includes ambitious long-term goal
The Paris Agreement writes history. The Agreement strenghtens the temperature goal from "below 2°C" to "well below 2°C" and to pursue best efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. Less in the headlines, but of equal importance is the translation to emission goals.
Article 4 is the crucial one in regard to emissions. It says that "In order to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2, Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will take longer for developing country Parties, and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with best available science, so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century, on the basis of equity, and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty."
In our assessment, the Paris Agreement rises to the challenge of limiting dramatic climate change. It sets the framework for a chance to limit multi-metre sea-level rise in the long-term. Individual post-2020 country targets put on the table before Paris are insufficient to the task of limiting warming to 2°C, let alone 1.5°C. The so-called INDCs have not been enhanced here in Paris (they were never meant to be enhanced here because the main focus was on the global agreement). Thus, there exists a big gap between INDCs and the global ambition needed. This will need to be bridged by upgraded mitigation contributions from countries in the years to come. In this article, we keep in mind those insufficient country INDCs but look at the Paris Agreement itself.
What are the main targets in terms of global mitigation?
The ultimate objective of the Agreement is to limit global warming to well below 2°C, and "to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels".
There is also a long-term greenhouse gas emission goal. It is to peak global emissions as soon as possible, then reduce rapidly, and achieve net zero emissions "in the second half of the century". These "net zero" emissions are expressed as the "balance between anthropogenic emission by sources and removals by sinks". This basically means that any greenhouse gas emissions remaining in the second half of the century need to be outweighed/compensated/balanced/offset (take your pick) by anthropogenic actions to enhance the uptake of CO2 through afforestation, biomass, carbon capture and storage, and other negative emissions techniques.
Does the Paris Agreement refer to "natural" sinks?
No, clearly not. First of all, as in "international aviation and maritime transport", "international" refers to both "aviation" and "maritime transport". Thus, the adjective "anthropogenic" refers to both "emissions" and "sinks". Furthermore, Article 4 of the UNFCCC convention uses the standard term "anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks" clearly as referring to anthropogenically induced sinks - otherwise the UNFCCC Parties would have reported incorrect data for the last 23 years. In the hypothetical case that you might interpret it differently, Art. 4 would imply a stabilisation of concentrations, which would NOT be in line with the "best available science" given that we need reducing concentrations to stabilise temperatures over the couse of this century.
Summary in graphs:
In a summary graph, the Paris Agreement contains two temperature goals and two long-term emission goals.
(download as slides here, or high-res PDF here). A simpler graph of what the Paris Agreement concluded:
(Feel free to use these graphs; just cite as: M. Meinshausen, Australian-German Climate & Energy College, The University of Melbourne, climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au, download as slides here, or high resolution PDF )
How does that language of "balance between emissions and sinks" differ from "net zero"?
Well... substantially, it does not.
A balance between a positive and a negative thing means that both parts are of equal magnitude and hence the sum is zero. However, in terms of communication and framing, they may be very different.
The "balance" language places an emphasis on the "sinks". We would argue that this emphasis is not ideal, as the enhancement of sinks via large-scale afforestation and biomass production can come with substantial risks in terms of food security and biodiversity. The "net zero" language puts an emphasis instead on the "zero". This stresses that the most important and first task is to reduce emissions to zero.
Nevertheless, whatever the expression, the substance of reducing all greenhouse gas emissions to zero is ambitious, clear and appropriate in light of collective temperature target.
How does the Paris Agreement compare to the G7 agreement in Elmau?
Arguably, the Paris Agreement target is much stronger than the G7 agreement. The G7 agreement aimed at a "decarbonisation over the course of the century". That can actually mean lots of different things.
Optimistically seen, it means that net CO2 emissions in the energy and industrial sector are phased out by 2100 with a transition to that point. The Paris Agreement has both a potentially closer timeframe ("in the second half of the century") and a broader scope (all greenhouse gases, rather than only CO2). For all greenhouse gas emissions to go to net zero, CO2 emissions have to becomes negative. Negative CO2 emissions are the uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere in growing trees and biomass. However, "negative" methane or nitrous oxide emissions are hard to imagine. Thus, the only way to have net zero greenhouse gas emissions is to have negative CO2 emissions. In order to get from today's high CO2 emission levels to negative emission levels, we first have to go through zero. The Paris Agreement therefore implicitly includes a stronger decarbonisation target than did the G7 agreement.
A look at Figure SPM.7 in IPCC Working Group 3 from the Fifth Assessment Report clarifies some things.
The bunch of scenarios analysed in this Figure aim at 450ppm CO2 equivalence concentrations. One can see that a full decarbonisation of the electricity sector occurs by 2050. Those 450ppm scenarios are roughly speaking the "below 2°C" scenarios.
This makes it clear that full decarbonisation is part of the story no matter what, but even more so if we wish to stay "well below 2°C" and at "1.5°C".
Malte Meinshausen & College
Facts4COP21: Coal is yesterday's hero
If we want a reasonable chance of staying within 2°C, we can't build any more coal-fired power plants.
New analysis of coal power plant data by CoalSwarm (see their Coal Plant Tracker here) in collaboration with the ClimateActionTracker.org team shows that the carbon budget leaves no room for new coal power plants. The report looked at IPCC AR5 scenarios that allow a chance of staying below 2°C. It found that under all these scenarios, electricity production from coal power plants (without carbon capture and storage) is much lower than the remaining coal power plant stock. Either current plants need to be switched off, or their load factors reduced.
In the graph above, taken from the Climate Action Tracker Coal Gap report, the grey bar on the right shows the energy from coal power plants already in operation, under construction, approved and announced. The thin red lines on the left side show, for the range of scenarios (10th and 90th percentile), the electricity production from coal consistent with the IPCC AR5 scenarios for 2°C. The grey dashes are the median values. From 2030, in even the most lenient of circumstances (the top of the red line) there's clearly no room for new coal and existing coal plants will need to be pared back. From 2050, coal-fired power needs to be completely phased out.
Facts4COP21: Carbon price average is $7/t while consumption subsidy average is $115/t
The IEA Special World Energy Outlook Report 2015 on Energy and Climate Change contains a number of interesting points.
On page 24, Figure 1.2 illustrates for selected regions:
the volume of energy-related CO2 emissions;
the percentage of energy-related CO2 emissions that are covered by a carbon price;
and the percentage of energy-related CO2 emissions that are covered by end-use consumption subsidies (any production subsidies would be additional to these).
The picture tells a sober story. Globally, 13% of energy-related CO2 emissions are supported by some end-use fossil fuel subsidy, at an average rate of $115 per tonne. At the same time, only 11% of energy-related CO2 emissions are subject to a carbon price, and that price is, on average just $7 per tonne.
Why would we expect global emissions to follow a downward trajectory when end-use fossil fuel subsidies have a broader coverage than carbon prices and a sixteen-fold higher dollar tag?
Of course, the picture is regionally diverse; end-use subsidies mainly occur in the Middle East and poorer countries.
What can we learn from all this? Firstly, careful gradual policies are needed to get rid of subsidies, keeping in mind the social aspects of energy poverty (for example, in cases where those end-use subsidies can help farmers get their produce to the next town). Secondly, the co-benefits of addressing end-use energy subsidies can be tremendous. If renewably sourced energy can, for example, provide rural electrification (and thus allow our farmer to use an electro-scooter), there can be benefits for governmental budgets, availing more resources for health and education.
Of course, the overall picture is more complex. In practice, many subsidies do not address the needs of the poor. Furthermore, there have been decades of fossil fuel subsidies on the production side as well.
For the climate, as long as on a global scale CO2 emissions receive more subsidies than they face prices, it is no surprise that we have not yet started on the necessary downward trajectory. But there are good opportunities to help get us there.
Facts4COP21: Global LULUCF emissions now zero and promise to stay that way.
Time for some motivating news...
Globally aggregated land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions and removals have come down substantially over the last years.
In 2010, LULUCF emissions were around zero. Although it should be noted that this might be a little deceptive because countries account for the removal of CO2 in forest management systems and elsewhere, whereas carbon cycle models classify this as natural CO2 uptake.
Projections of business-as-usual LULUCF emissions were not looking great. Even before the INDCs came out, projections conitnued to show an increase. But now that the INDCs are in, the LULUCF emissions trend is looking much better.
All the unconditional INDCs taken together suggest that LULUCF emissions remain at around net zero emission levels.
If the conditional LULUCF mitigation actions are supported and implemented, another 0.8 GtCO2eq/yr net uptake per year could be gained.
Source: The recently released JRC LULUCF report by Grassi & Dentener, available here: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC98451/jrc%20lulucf-indc%20report.pdf
Facts4COP21: Inflated baselines make some INDCs seem more ambitious
For developing countries, INDC targets are often expressed as reductions with respect to projected business-as-usual (BAU) emissions. That is, these countries intend to reduce their emissions compared to what would have happened under a scenario of 'no climate policy'.
In these circumstances, the chosen BAU projection is highly relevant. In some INDCs, the BAU is explicitly stated, in others it is merely implied.
For every country that has put forward an INDC target with respect to BAU emissions, we compared the implied or stated BAU emissions trajectory with the BAU emissions trajectory consistent with the most recent historical data and growth rates from the IPCC's fifth assessment report.
We found that Indonesia and Turkey have announced baselines that may be inflated by as much 889 Mt CO2e and 752 Mt CO2e, respectively.
Paraguay may have inflated its baseline by as much as 300%.
Inflating baselines can lead to 'hot air' being injected into the climate negotiations.
Facts4COP21: Russia and Turkey producing most of the 'hot air' in climate talks
Where a country announces an emissions target that sounds like a reduction but actually results in more emissions than under a business-as-usual situation, the emissions are known as 'hot air'.
For all countries, we compared business-as-usual projections of emissions with announced 2030 INDC targets. In every case, where the target was a range (either by design or because of inherent uncertainty) we chose the more ambitious end of the range.
We found that Russia and Turkey have announced targets that result in 533 Mt CO2e and 506 MtCO2e of 'hot air', respectively.
Other 'hot air' countries are Paraguay, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Ukraine.
Facts4COP21: The current 'optimistic' case shows a G20 emissions 'plateau'
As we start COP21 negotiations in Paris today, we wanted to provide a good news story.
Taking all G20 INDC targets, we calculated an emissions trajectory to 2030 for G20 countries.
In most cases an INDC does not provide a straight-forward target, but a range. This is either by design (such as for Australia where the announced target is 26% to 28% below 2005 levels) or because of unavoidable uncertainties in the calculations.
We chose the more ambitious end of every range and called this the 'optimistic case'. The least ambitious range we called the 'pessimistic case'.
Under the optimistic case, G20 emissions do not increase beyond today's levels. Instead, they seem to plateau. This is the good news.
However, we can't avoid pointing out that a plateau is not enough. Global emissions need to peak well before 2030 and start to seriously decline towards zero...and that's all global emissions, not just those of G20 countries.
Facts4COP21: 95% of the world covered by INDCs... Outstanding: 2% countries, 3% bunkers.
At the start of COP21, 182 countries had announced post-2020 INDCs:155 INDCs, one of which covers 28 EU countries.
Jointly, these 182 countries are responsible for more than 95% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2010.
So which countries make up the missing 5%?
2% of the remaining 5% are a handful of countries: Angola, Brunei Darussalam, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Libya, Nepal, Nicaragua, Panama, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Syrian Arab Republic,Timor-Leste, Tonga, Uzbekistan, and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. Arguably, some of them (not all) are busy with other pressing issues.
3% of the remaining 5% are international aviation and shipping. Not much of an excuse for these guys.*
* Yes, we know. ICAO and in particular IMO are starting to make baby steps. ICAO's carbon neutral growth pledge is a start, but its starting levels are too high.
Update: During COP21, Angola announced an INDC.
Facts4COP21: Adaptation financing according to consumption-based emissions: taxing air tickets a close proxy.
According to a recent study by French economists Chancel and Piketti (author of Capital in the 21st century) taxing air tickets to raise adaptation finance would be easy to implement but may not hit the highest emitters most effectively. Other options might do a better job of this, like focussing on consumption-based emissions and taking contributions from countries whose individuals emit above world average. In these options, those that are most able to afford it and those that contribute most to current and future climate impacts would pay for adaptation. However, these options may be administratively difficult to implement. See more results of the study here.
Facts4COP21: Multi-study comparison confirms that global emissions heading in the wrong direction from 2025 to 2030.
The World Resources Institute has collated and compared all the main global studies that quantify INDCs.
Although there is a fair spread across the individual studies—many providing INDC ranges with low and high values, as well as conditional and unconditional quantifications— there is one trend that is clear across the board. If INDCs are implemented as they are currently stand, emission levels in 2030 are not likely to be below emission levels in 2025. Unfortunately though, emissions trajectories consistent with a least-cost implementation of the 2°C target head downwards between 2025 and 2030; they do not remain constant nor do they increase.
Oh, and on the graph, the first two dark blue bars (labelled: "Australian-German CEC") are our own calculations based on our INDC factsheets (30th October version) available here.
Facts4COP21: INDCs exist for 161 countries responsible for 92% of emissions
We have updated our INDC Factsheets webpage with the latest submissions (the most recent addition being that of Saudi Arabia).
As of 17 November 2015, 161 countries responsible for 92% of global emissions have submitted INDCs. Those countries account for 93% of the global population and 97% of global GDP.
However, not every INDC covers 100% of a country's national emissions, some exclude certain sectors, for example. We have calculated that around 81% of global emissions are captured by INDCs.
The UNFCCC Synthesis Report, published on 30 October, took account of INDCs submitted by 30 September only. At that time the UNFCCC estimated that countries responsible for 86% of global emissions had submitted INDCs. Our figures update the UNFCCC numbers.
Facts4Paris: Australia could meet its Kyoto pledge while increasing emissions 11% by 2020 relative to 2000.
The near-term Australian target is a reduction of 5% on 2000 levels by 2020...or so most Australians believe.
In reality the target was established in three parts: an unconditional 5% target; increased to a 15% target if there is a commitment from major developing economies to substantially reduce emissions and for advanced economies to take on comparable commitments; increased to a 25% target if the global agreement can stabilise emissions levels at 450 parts per million or less.
According to the Climate Change Authority, requirements for the 15% target have been met.
But there is a technical point that comes into play here as well. It is such that the actual legal obligations under the Kyoto Protocol are potentially weak enough that Australia may be able to increase its emissions by 11% above 2000 levels and still be in compliance. This all has to do with three factors:
The target under the Kyoto Protocol is not a end-target of 5% below 2000 levels. It is in fact an annual target of reducing emissions by 0.5% (yes: 0.5%) below 2000 levels over the 2013-20 period.
At the end of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, Australia was left with a large surplus of emission credits (something like 250 to 300 MtCO2eq) that it may choose to carry over. Australia could use these surplus credits over the 2013 to 2020 period under certain conditions (basically they can be used, if emissions are higher than the target).
The third factor may or may not be a factor—this is yet to be determined. It centres on a new clause in the Kyoto Protocol, so-called Article 3.7ter. This new clause says that any target in the second commitment period is capped at average 2008-10 emissions. But there is ambiguity in the interpretation of the word 'emissions'. Article 3.7ter was inserted into the text of the Kyoto Protocol itself, so it would most likely be defined using the Kyoto Protocol definition. This definition restricts the meaning of 'emissions' to so-called 'Annex A emissions'. Annex A emissions are emissions resulting from fossil and industrial sources only. It does not include emissions from deforestation. This is pretty much standard accounting practice under the Kyoto Protocol. Except that there was an exception negotiated for Australia: since 2008 Australia has benefitted from special treatment allowing the country to include deforestation emissions in its base-year calculations. It is now in Australia's interest to negotiate for 'emissions' under article 3.7ter to be defined as "emissions including deforestation emissions" (see Australia's submission here). If Australia is successful in this, it would be able to increase its emissions linearly from current levels to 11% above 2000 levels by 2020 and still meet its obligations under the Kyoto Protocol. If Australia is unsuccessful, and the term 'emissions' continues to refer to 'Annex A emissions', then Australia will have to keep its emissions constant (at least) until 2020.
Discussions on the definitions of Article 3.7ter may not be the main game in Paris in December, but they will definitely be part of the horse-trading going on in the backrooms.
Update 5th December: That horsetrading has happened now. Australia backs 1.5C target as part of the Paris agreement and is in turn allowed to increase its emissions by up to 11% above 2000 levels by 2020. See here: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/un-climate-conference/paris-un-climate-conference-2015-australia-backs-target-of-limiting-warming-to-15-degrees-20151204-glg5dc.html
Facts4Paris: Lomborg. Wrong again.
Reported in The Australian today (Paris pledges 'wishful thinking, not optimism': Bjorn Lomborg), climate dissident Bjorn Lomborg has published findings suggesting that the Paris agreement will reduce global mean temperatures in 2100 by only 0.17°C.
To make this finding he used the climate model that we co-developed: MAGICC, so we know it well. The thing about climate models, in fact any models, is that what you get out is only as trustworthy and as reliable as the assumptions you make and therefore on what you put in. It's the old adage of "garbage-in, garbage-out" (GIGO for short).
So let's examine what Lomborg put into MAGICC so that we can decide whether it's garbage.
Lomborg outlines two cases, an optimistic case and a pessimistic case. In the optimistic case, Lomborg assumes that countries maintain their commitments after the target end-date lapses (as flat emissions, not reductions). In the pessimistic scenario he assumes that they do not (emissions rise in line with earlier trends).
Importantly, he explicitly disregards any mid- to long-term policies. According to political scientist Lomborg, the year 2030 is as far as policy-making can go. Yet according to the atmosphere, the biosphere, the hydrosphere, the lithosphere and the cryosphere, temperatures in 2100 are largely dependent on what happens after 2030. See our earlier Facts4Paris here for illustration of the importance of post-2030 assumptions.
Lomborg's study has an almost exclusive focus on the US, the EU and China. So let's see what his 2030 assumption means for these three countries:
For the US, Lomborg assumes in the optimistic scenario that after 2030, the US continues to emit at the same rate as in 2030. This ignores that the US has flagged an emissions reduction target by 2050 of 80%. In the pessimistic scenario, US emissions go into a hyper-drive increase. This ignores the simple fact that the US 2030 target will put the country on certain trajectory of change (technological, economic etc) the benefits of which should continue beyond 2030. It is non-sensical to assume that emissions will simply blow out when the 2030 deadline rolls around.
For the EU, in both the optimistic and the pessimistic cases, Lomborg assumes that after 2030 emissions increase. This is to completely ignore the fact that EU emissions have been steadily decreasing since 1990. It also ignores the EU's 2050 target of an 80% reduction.
For China, the assumption is important, because Chinese emissions represent a large share of the global total. Although China has stated that its CO2 emissions will peak by 2030, Lomborg assumes emissions strongly increase again in the period 2030 to 2050 and then stay constant until 2100. This is to ignore the fact that a peaking pledge is fundamentally a pledge to keep emissions below a certain level after some specified time. The only way this could hold, was if China kept its CO2 emission constant and ramped up its non-CO2 emissions. However, it would need to do so three times more quickly than any of the 38 no-climate policy IPCC AR5 reference scenarios suggests. They all assume that non-CO2 emissions in China will be around 2 to 4 GtCO2eq throughout the century. Lomborg's trajectory is more like 8 to 11 GtCO2eq.
There may be other problems with the paper, but given this fundamental error in scientific judgement, we don't see the point of scrutinising it any further.
Note: Our method for producing the above graph was simply to filter all IPCC AR5 no-additional-climate policy reference scenarios with regional detail for China, trajectories for the full 21st century and data for CH4, N2O and fluorinated gases. We weighted them with the GWP AR4 metric. For the red Lomborg lines, we derived what is necessary to close the gap between flat CO2 emission from 2030 onwards and the increase of Chinese GHG emissions as postulated by Lomborg. That difference would have to come from non-CO2 emissions; and those non-CO2 emissions would have to be large. Very large. In fact, 3 times larger than any sensible model out there suggest might even occur in the absence of further climate policies.
Facts4Paris: Until 1995, the G7 were the major cumulative emissions contributor but not after; and sometime in 2020-30 non-Annex I nations become the major cumulative contributors.
The industrialised countries were responsible for the majority of emissions during much of the 20th century, despite having only a small fraction of the world's population. In fact, up to 1995, more than half of all global cumulative emissions were produced by the G7 countries.
After 1995, the majority of emissions has been caused by non-G7 countries (see the crossover point on the graph above).
For Annex I countries (the UNFCCC grouping of developed countries that includes Russia) the picture is similar. Annex I countries have been the majority emitting group, but they are on a downward trajectory and will crossover with non-Annex I countries. When that happens, more than 50% of cumulative historical emissions will have been produced by non-Annex I countries. When exactly that crossover might happen is unknown. Datasources vary and future projections are, of course, uncertain. If we simply assume constant emissions after 2014, the crossover point is 2030. If, on the other hand, we assume the INDC scenarios (in which Annex I emissions continue to fall) the crossover point is likely to be somewhere between 2020 and 2030.
If we relate climate impacts are directly to cumulative emissions, then until 1995 G7 countries were the majority cause of climate impacts and since 1995, non-G7 countries have been the majority cause of climate impacts. Similarly, until sometime in 2020-2030, Annex I countries are more than 50% responsible for climate impacts.
Facts4Paris: In the landscape of global emission shares everything is changing except for the G20.
Greenhouse gas emission shares of global emission in each year are less and less dominated by the so-called industrialised countries.
By 2014, G7 countries collectively accounted for a quarter of global emissions (see our earlier Facts4Paris), but in the old days, this was much higher. Back in 1900-1920, the G7 accounted for 70% of global emissions.
The share of current emissions from the non-Annex I countries (broadly speaking: the developing countries) is rising. Since about 1992, the share of the non-Annex I emissions has represented more than 50% of the global total, although, of course, per-capita emissions are still lower on average across non-Annex I versus Annex I countries.
Emissions from the G20 account for 76% of global total emissions, and have done so since the 1960s. This is the one constant.
Looking at the graph above and comparing 1900 to 2010, almost all groupings have changed position....except for the G20!
For leaders gathering this week at the G20 summit in Turkey this might be a signal that they should be looking to solve the climate issue. No finger-pointing needed... all governments coming together in Antalya can do their share.
Facts4Paris: UNEP GAP report estimates 12-14 GtCO2e gap by 2030, but only half as much by 2025.
The 2015 UNEP gap report was released on Friday just one week after the UNFCCC Synthesis Report on the aggregate effect of the INDCs was published. The numbers in the UNEP report basically confirm those of the UNFCCC Synthesis Report.
The message is the same: the gap between where the INDCs will take us by 2030 and where the world needs to be for a least-cost trajectory towards 2°C is vast: an enormous 12 to 14 Gt.
However, if we look only to 2025, the gap seems much more manageable: an approximate 5 to 7 GtCO2eq.
This suggests that in Paris we should focussing on 2025, where we can still make a difference. If we can negotiate down this gap for 2025 and treat the 2025 level as an absolute global cap, then subsequent negotiating rounds can look to enhance ambition toward 2030 with emissions peaking and starting their downward trajectory.
Note: The UNEP gap report calculates the gap as the difference between calculated INDC emission levels by 2030 and the IPCC AR5 scenario database scenarios that start global mitigation by 2020 and have a 66% likelihood of staying below 2°C by 2100. The UNFCCC Synthesis Report shows scenario trajectories and calculates the gap towards scenarios that have at least a 66% chance of staying below 2°C over the course of the 21st century, but start global mitigation in both 2010, today and 2020.
...Oh, and yes, our INDC Factsheets are one of the global studies assessed in the UNEP GAP report.
Facts4Paris: Long-term millennial sea-level rise of 3 to 13 metres follows warming of 2°C.
Half a degree difference does not sound like much.
However, half a degree difference in global mean temperatures is likely to mean more than a metre difference in ultimate sea-level rise.
Summarising the evidence assessed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Levermann et al. have estimated that we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 metres per degree of warming for the next 2,000 years. Warming of 2°C above pre-industrial levels could mean anywhere between 3 and 13 metres of sea-level rise. The upper level of this estimate would come into play if we crossed the (uncertain) threshold of the Greenland ice-sheet starting to melt. Sometime after we warm 1.2°C but probably before we hit 2°C, we could cross the Greenland ice sheet threshold resulting in about 7 meters of sea-level rise (and with current warming we've likely already crossed the seaborne West-Antarctic melting threshold).
So, when in Paris negotiations we talk about the sharing of the mitigation burden it might be good to also keep in mind that there's a lot of 'burden' associated with every half-degree of warming that we don't avoid.
Facts4Paris: Chinese CO2 emissions may be uncertain but existing estimates are still valid.
Yesterday the New York Times reported that Chinese coal consumption may be 17% higher than was previously thought. The article was picked up by other media outlets such as The Guardian and TIME. Obviously, this is not great news. But it's also not as bad, or as revelatory, as is being suggested.
Using the revised coal consumption figures to calculate Chinese CO2 emissions simply puts official estimates back into the middle of the range of what many other studies have previously calculated.
To illustrate, the above graph shows estimates of total Chinese CO2 emissions by:
The CDIAC, which is the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center run by the US government (data includes energy and cement emissions).
The EDGAR, which is the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research run by the European Commission JRC Joint Research Centre and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (data likely overestimates some emissions factors).
The IEA, which is the International Energy Agency (data excludes cement emissions).
The EIA, which is the US Energy Information Administration.
The graph shows that whether you choose the old coal consumption data (black dashed line) or the new coal consumption data (orange dashed line), the emissions estimates are still within the range of existing studies.
In fact, the announced revision of Chinese energy statistics is not really new (see e.g. here or here), nor does it undermine the Chinese peaking or intensity targets for Paris. On the same day that the Chinese INDC was announced in July 2015, a national expert study was published using the 2014 revised figures (see Figure 4 of Fu Sha et al). One month later, in August, a prominent study by Liu et al. revisited all the emission factors revalidating those that have been in use in China (and also suggesting that some other emission factors have been too high).
In short, there is and always has been uncertainty regarding Chinese CO2 emissions. However, the revelation by the New York Times is neither new, nor does it put the Chinese INDC into question.
Note: To calculate the black and orange dashed lines we used an emission factor of 0.5 tonnes of carbon per tonne of coal based on the findings by Liu et al. and we adopted their best-estimates for gas, oil and cement emissions. For the coal consumption data we used the figure plotted in the New York Times article. We note that at this stage the Chinese Statistical Yearbook 2014 does not feature the upward correction that the New York Times has reported. Supplementary data made available by Liu et al. is greatfully acknowledged. PS: The figure was updated on 9th Nov. We corrected the lower 'previous coal use' emission trajectory (black circles and black dashed line), as previously we erroneously adopted the Liu et al. implicit coal use data, rather than the one shown in NYT. The emission trajectory based on the new coal use data (orange line) is unchanged.
Facts4Paris: Of 'best case' emissions reductions pledged in the INDCs, one quarter is conditional on external support.
There are a couple of uncertainties in the emissions reduction targets put forward by countries in their INDCs.
The first is that many of the INDCs include emissions reduction targets presented as ranges. The Australian INDC, for example, includes a target of 26% to 28% below 2005 levels by 2030.
The second is that many developing countries have proposed ranges of targets that are contingent on external support. For example, the Argentine INDC includes a target of 15% to 30% below projected business-as-usual emissions by 2030. The 15% target is unconditional. The 30% target, on the other hand, is conditional on foreign finance, technology transfer and capacity building.
The third is that many of the INDCs are hard to quantify (this could be for any number of reasons such as a lack of data or ambiguity in the wording).
We calculated a scenario whereby every country adopted the more ambitious extreme of its emissions reduction target range and every quantification of uncertain INDCs was resolved towards the more ambitious result. In other words, we looked at a 'best case' scenario of existing INDCs.
We found that 19% of the total emissions reduction by 2025 and 26% by 2030 were contingent on external support.
Even in this 'best case scenario' the aggregation of INDCs is insufficient to bridge the gap to 2°C scenarios.
Note: The gap we describe is the difference between the Cancun Pledges reference scenarios and least-cost 2° scenarios, as assessed by the UNFCCC Aggregation Synthesis Report.
Facts4Paris: EU INDC does not meet 'fair share' nor 'leadership' criteria.
The EU has long been regarded a leader in international climate policy. However, with some internal voices putting up barriers (Poland, for example), this may be a thing of the past.
The EU 20% target by 2020 has basically been achieved. This is great in terms of past achievements! However, future ambitions are not so progressive.
We compared the EU's 2030 target of 40% below 1990 emission levels against various criteria (in line with our assumptions for a 2°C target):
In a world where everybody converges towards the same per-capita emissions level in the future (but nations with lower-than world-average emissions take some extra time to do so) the EU's 'fair' target would be 51% below 1990 levels.
In a world where historical emissions are recognised and thus everybody converges towards the same cumulative per-capita emissions—an approach favoured by China and India—the EU's 'fair' target is at least a 58% below 1990 levels.
Lastly, if the EU wants to reclaim the status of 'climate leader' in such a way that every other nation could follow the EU example (setting their own climate targets correspondingly but with their own understandings of 'fairness') the EU's target needs to be 67% below 1990 levels.
Clearly there is some way to go!
Yet there is hope...after all, the 'i' in INDCs stands for 'intended'.
Based on assumptions and methods outlined in this paper and explained in this Briefing Note.
Facts4Paris: The map of per-capita emissions will change between now and 2030.
We've mapped the effect of INDCs in terms of per-capita emissions:
The size of the bubbles indicates total aggregate national emissions (total not per-capita).
The horizontal position (left-right) refers to the country's per-capita emissions in 2010—further to the right means higher per-capita emissions.
The vertical distribution (up-down) represents the percent change in per-capita emissions between 2010 and 2030 as outlined by the INDC—above the line means an increase; below the line is a decrease.
The big bubbles (and therefore big total emitters) are China, the EU and the US. As you can see, some of the highest per-capita emitting countries intend to increase their per-capita emissions by 2030 (Russia +34%, China +23%, Turkey +97%).
For those countries that have not submitted INDCs we assumed regional average gas-by-gas growth rates.
Facts4Paris: World emission shares are roughly: one quarter: G7, one quarter: China, one quarter: rest of the G20, one quarter: rest of the world.
Although all countries have to varying degrees contributed to the causes of climate change and all countries are impacted by climate change, some countries can have more of a role in emissions reduction than others. This relates very simply to countries' absolute share of global emissions.
While we strive for a global deal in Paris this year, it is worth recognising that a regime focussing on certain countries or certain groupings of countries might also provide a path forward.
In 2014, the rich industrialised countries of the Group of 7 were responsible for one quarter of global emissions. China was responsible for another quarter. The remainder of the G20 countries (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey) were together responsible for another quarter. That leaves the entire rest of the world responsible for the final quarter.
Facts4Paris: Temperatures in 2100 could be 3.5°C, 2.7° or less than 2°C warmer, depending on what happens after 2030.
Temperatures in 2100 depend largely on emissions after 2030—that is on what happens after the INDCs lapse:
If we assume "no direct connection between efforts before and after 2030", we may be set for a 3.5°C temperature increase by 2100, according to the Climate Interactive group.
If we assume "a similar level of effort will be undertaken by countries post-2030 as applies in the period 2020-2030", we may see a 2.7°C warming, says the Climate Action Tracker (and a report by the International Energy Agency).
If, however, we include all scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, we still have some chance of maintaining temperatures below 2°C, according to the UNFCCC Aggregation Report. This would require a 3.3% annual emissions reduction rate from 2030 to 2050 (full range is 2.7% to 3.9%) with reductions continuing thereafter towards zero emissions in 2100.
There is another alternative; it is to change the trajectory before 2030 by reviewing and strengthening the INDCs in line with a 2°C target. This would lower the required emissions reduction rate to just 1.6% per year—a much less daunting task.
Reduction rates here are measured against fixed 2010 emission levels, not against current emission levels from year to year; we think that this approach makes more sense (and the UNFCCC Aggregation Report agrees).
For a full explanation of the different assumptions used by the Climate Interactive and the Climate Action Tracker, read this comparative assessment.
Oh...and we'd like to mention that the climate model used by the IEA and the Climate Action Tracker to calculate the 2.7°C temperature increase is MAGICC, the model that we look after. We're glad that they have made good use of it, and you can too. It's available freely for use here: live.magicc.org.
Facts4Paris: Sum of INDCs bridges just 27% of current emissions gap by 2025 and 22% by 2030.
A gap exists between all reference scenarios* and 2°C scenarios**. According the UNFCCC Aggregation Report released today, the sum of INDCs bridges just 27%*** of that gap by 2025 and just 22% of the gap by 2030.
The remaining gap (in dark blue) is about 9 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2025 and about 15 gigatonnes in 2030.
* Reference scenarios are those that "capture action communicated by Parties for the pre-2020 period and keep climate policies constant thereafter".
** Least-cost mitigation scenarios from IPCC AR5 scenario database with at least likely chance of staying below 2˚C, starting global mitigation in 2010 and 2020.
*** Median values, see UNFCCC Aggregation Report (30 Oct 2015) for ranges.
Facts4Paris: The later we start reducing, the steeper the decline to 2050.
Our middle-of-the-range sum of INDCs gives an approximate figure of 55 Gt of emissions by 2030 (GWP AR4 metric). This is above 2020 emission projections for both the Copenhagen and Cancun pledges. It suggests that we are heading in the wrong direction. Global emissions need to come down, not increase further, if the world is to have a likely change of keeping warming within 2°C.
Looking at all IPCC AR5 scenarios for 2°C starting in either 2010, 2020 or 2030 there is a clear penalty for delayed mitigation action. As was found by IPCC, 2050 emissions levels for 2°C compatible scenarios are 40% to 70% below 2010 by 2050. Almost all scenarios pass through that range, regardless of whether the decline starts softly in 2010 or goes into free-fall from 2031. Combining the INDC quantifications with the 2°C scenarios leaves just one conclusion: to achieve 2°C INDCs need to be enhanced...Otherwise we need a miracle emissions-reduction solution from 2031.
Facts4Paris: There are 16 INDCs for the top 20 emitters—those missing are: international shipping, Iran, Saudi Arabia and international aviation.
We ranked all 195 Parties to the UNFCCC according to their greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 including the two main sectors that were left out of the Kyoto Protocol: international shipping and international aviation. Both of these are big emitters with rapidly growing emissions and are two of the four INDCs missing from the top 20 emitters.
In order of total emissions:
International shipping accounts for more emissions than the whole of the UK or Australia, yet the International Maritime Organisation has presented only a greenhouse gas study without firm targets.
Iran was the 17th biggest emitter in 2010 and has not submitted an INDC.
Saudi Arabia was the 19th biggest emitter in 2010 and has not submitted an INDC.
The International Civil Aviation Organisation, the body that controls international aviation, has put forward a carbon-neutral growth pledge after 2020 (although the details and binding nature of that target are unclear, see here) but this pledge is outside the UNFCCC.
In summary, we have two countries and two sectors within the top 20 emitters for which the UNFCCC cannot quantify emissions reduction efforts post-2020. Together these four represented 4.9% of global emissions in 2010.
Facts4Paris: if every country matches the US pledge, in 2025 world emissions will be 6% higher than they were in 2010.
If countries were to choose targets comparable with those of the US (where comparabability is determined either according to a 'common but differentiated per-capita convergence' scheme or to an 'equal cumulative per-capita' approach) world emissions would be 6% higher in 2025 than they were in 2010. For a least-cost 2°C trajectory, world emissions need to be 15% below 2010 emissions, or 10% above 1990 levels by 2025. Check out www.mitigation-contributions.org to explore the outcomes of such calculations for a G20 country of your choice using different comparability approaches.
Source: See our new Nature Climate Change paper for methods and data.
Facts4Paris: There is no way around zero emissions.
Regardless of the temperature at which we want to stop global warming there is no way around zero carbon emissions. As the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report showed (and as the G7 Agreement picked up) by 2050 carbon emissions from the electricity sector have to be zero. In the middle of the second half of the century, all carbon emissions ought to be phased out to net zero and by the end of the 21st century, all greenhouse gas emissions ought to be around zero (implying net negative carbon emissions). It's a daunting task but a joint target that could not be clearer. The draft text agreement for Paris contains zero and decarbonisation targets.
Source: IPCC WG3 and Synthesis Report of the Fifth Assessment Report, available at www.ipcc.ch. Specifically, IPCC WG3 AR5 Figure SPM.7 middle panel for electricity sector emissions by 2050 and IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Table 2.2, page 64.
Facts4Paris: Australia's per-capita emissions remain the highest among its key trading partners
We quantified fossil and industrial greenhouse gas emissions for major emitters under their INDCs using the UN 2015 revised population projections (medium scenario) to calculate per-capita emissions to 2025 and 2030. Australia remains the highest per-capita emitter in the selection of countries shown above. Chinese per-capita emissions are about the same as those of the EU28 and continue to grow under their "peaking by 2030" pledge.
Source: Own calculations. See INDC Factsheets for data sources and details.
Facts4Paris: 79% of post-2011 carbon budget all used up by 2030.
For a likely (66%) chance of staying below 2°C of warming, we can only afford another 1000 GtCO2 cumulative carbon emissions after 2011. If INDCs are not augmented, we will have exhausted about 580 GtCO2 of those 1000 GtCO2 by 2025 and 790 GtCO2 by 2030. For a 1.5C carbon buget of 550 GtCO2, the current INDCs will exhaust that by 2025.
Source: Own calculations based on our INDC factsheets. See IPCC Synthesis Report AR5, Table 2.2 for carbon budgets.


As a software engineer, helped design and implement a Windows application shipped with our DNA sequencing machine. Software automatically extracted DNA information from a 'noisy' data file created by the machine. I designed and implemented flexible manual tools so the user could quickly and easily verify and correct automatic analysis. Planned development of software by discussing issues with beta clients. Presented software to customers including one presentation to over thirty scientists.
Developed a multi-alphabet chat application to allow a user with a browser to chat in 70+ languages. Developed a server application to convert multi-lingual html pages into a picture allowing small devices such as PDAs and Cell phones to display non-English sites without needing a multi-lingual font.
Technical liaison between corporate customers and Teamscape's software engineers. Main responsibility was on-site customer technical support during installation at large corporate customers' sites. Presented software at industry trade shows. Trained corporate customers on maintenance and use of the software.
Designed and developed various web-based projects on an independent contractor basis.


Greenfish is a marketing agency specialising in digital and email marketing. By creating targeted and tailored marketing campaigns, we focus on performance and return on investment.
Started in 2017, Greenfish was created to help businesses transform the relationships with their customers. What drives us is understanding the complexities of every business and tailoring practical yet productive digital and email marketing solutions to help see them grow.


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Langham (Essex), een plaats in het Engelse graafschap Essex
 Langham (Norfolk), een plaats in het Engelse graafschap Norfolk
 Langham (Suffolk), een plaats in het Engelse graafschap Suffolk
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


text:
Little Brazil, Those Far Out Arrows, Eric in Outerspace, #BFF tonight; Leafblower, Her Flyaway Manner Saturday…
Category: Blog — Tags: Leafblower, Little Brazil, Those Far Out Arrows — @ 1:35 pm February 7, 2020
Little Brazil at The Waiting Room, Dec. 28, 2019. The band plays at The Sydney tonight.
It's looking like an all-Sydney weekend (when have I ever said that before?).
Tonight at The Sydney in Benson a sweet Benson First Friday show is headlined by Little Brazil (Max Trax Records) with Those Far Out Arrows (High Dive Records) and Eric in Outerspace. $5, 10 p.m.
And since you'll be in Benson before the show to get some grub (or whatever), drop by The Little Gallery at 5901 Maple (just across the street from The Sydney in the east bay of the Masonic Lodge Building) for "Hatch" by artist Pecha. The opening reception runs from 6 to 9 p.m. Come by, say hi.
Also tonight, Lookout Lounge has an old-school punk show with The Shidiots, Cordial Spew, Old Empires and Wyldra. $5, 8:30 p.m
Tomorrow night (Saturday) it's back to The Sydney for Leafblower (Max Trax Records) celebrating the release of a new 7-inch with Lincoln pals Her Flyaway Manner and Omaha grinders Living Conditions. $5, 10 p.m.
Also Saturday night, The Dive Kings return to fabulous O'Leaver's with Side Piece and Faded. 9 p.m., $5.
And that's all I got. If I missed your show, put it in the comments section. Have a great weekend…


As many of you may probably already know, quality and regular sleep is pivotal for the health and it can impact the mood, weight, and hormone levels, as explained on Web Md. Sleep-related issues, including sleep apnea, insomnia, snoring, and restless leg syndrome are not uncommon. According to Help Guide, a lot of people will experience difficultly to sleep at a specific point of time in their lives. This may be caused by all kinds of reasons, including a disease, too much stress, travel, or other routine interruptions. However, if such problems become chronic, they can decrease one's overall health and well-being.
This being said, it is vital to emphasize that regardless of the type of sleeping problem you may be facing, you should know that there are a lot of things that can be done in order to address the issue in question. But first, let us familiarize you with the details about sleeping disorders.
As explained on Help Guide, a sleeping disorder (there are several) is a condition which has a negative impact on one's capacity to get sufficient and quality sleep. Although it is considered normal to find it difficult to fall asleep from time to time, frequent troubles getting a good night's sleep or waking up tired and feeling sleepy throughout the day are certainly not. Unfortunately, this can have a debilitating influence on one's overall health and well-being and this cycle of no sleep at night and low energy throughout the day can damage one's efficiency, mood, energy, memory, and even relationships.
Opposite to what is a common belief, good sleep is not a luxury, but a necessity! Regardless of the sleeping disorder, adequate treatment increases the chances for complete recovery.
If you are suspecting a sleeping problem that is deteriorating your health and well-being, the best option is to consult your physician. Nonetheless, in order to do this, one needs to be able to recognize the symptoms of the most common sleeping disorders. Read them carefully in the section below.
What Are the Causes of Sleeping Disorders?
The underlying cause of narcolepsy is yet to be determined, as noted on Help Guide, even though there are specific known contributing factors like genetics and some environmental cause like a virus.
Sleepwalking, as pointed out on Medicine Net, may be linked with genetic, physiologic, medical, and environmental factors, including family history of sleepwalkers, too much stress, alcohol and drugs, stimulants, lack of sleep, menstruation, pregnancy, fever, nighttime asthma, sleep apnea, seizures, and acid reflux.
As stated by Health Line, sleep disorder treatment choices are usually conditioned by the type of sleep disorder and the reasons for it. In most cases, it is a mixture of medical therapies and appropriate lifestyle changes and improvements. Some of the available medical therapies adopted by doctors are sleeping meds, melatonin supplements, meds for allergies or colds, meds for the underlying health problems, a breathing device or a surgery, or a dental guard to address bruxism.
In terms of lifestyle improvements, they can be of great aid in bettering the patient's sleep quality, especially when done together with medical therapies. Some of the potential lifestyle adjustments are lowering the artificial sugar intake and eating more veggies and fish, exercising to decrease anxiety and stress, creating and sticking to a balanced sleeping schedule, consuming less water prior to bedtime and caffeine, as well as tobacco and alcohol, and consuming fewer carbs before sleep.
Without doubt, sticking to the treatment plan proposed by your doctor elevates the chances for sleeping better and improving your health.