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Arsenal midfielder Aaron Ramsey facing three weeks out as Arsene Wenger weighs up Mustafi 'gamble'
Groin injury will also likely keep Theo Walcott out of the Gunners' squad for Newcastle clash on Saturday.
Wenger has yet to decide if Jack Wilshere will start again after ending 577-day run at West Ham in midweek.
By George Flood
Arsene Wenger praises Jack Wilshere after emphatic Europa League win	Hayters
Arsene Wenger has revealed that Arsenal midfielder Aaron Ramsey is facing another three weeks on the sidelines through injury, while he has described the prospect of fielding Shkodran Mustafi in Saturday's (16 December) Premier League clash with Newcastle United as a "gamble".
Ramsey completed 90 minutes for the Gunners in their 1-1 draw with Southampton last Sunday, although he missed the subsequent midweek London derby stalemate at West Ham United due to a hamstring complaint that now looks set to keep him out for the entire festive period.
Robert Pires reveals Santi Cazorla will miss another six months after surgery
'Has really gone backwards for Arsenal' says Tony Cascarino about Hector Bellerin
How will Arsenal line up against Newcastle United and could Olivier Giroud start again?
Arsenal face West Ham again in the quarter-finals of the Carabao Cup next week before hosting Liverpool on the last Friday before Christmas.
They visit struggling Crystal Palace on 28 December and travel to West Bromwich Albion three days later before opening 2018 with the small matter of a home meeting with Chelsea on 3 January.
Defender Mustafi, meanwhile, limped off after just 15 minutes of the 3-1 defeat to Manchester United earlier this month after sustaining a thigh injury while committing a major error that led to the visitors' second early goal.
While he is now back in training after that latest setback, his place in the matchday 18 tomorrow seems far from guaranteed.
"Mustafi is back in training," Wenger told reporters at a pre-match press conference held at London Colney on Friday morning, per football.london. "I don't know if he will play. It would be a little gamble. We'll see. Aaron Ramsey won't be available. He'll be out for a bit longer. Perhaps three weeks so he's not in contention."
Theo Walcott made his first appearance in more than a month in the 6-0 Europa League drubbing of BATE Borisov, yet was left out of the squad to face former employers Southampton. The groin tweak suffered in training that led to his omission at West Ham is "not a bad one", according to Wenger, but will probably lead to his absence from the bench against Newcastle.
"He had a little groin problem and he would have been in the squad at West Ham," the manager explained. "I don't think he will be available tomorrow."
Wenger also reiterated that his decision to drop top scorer Alexandre Lacazette on Wednesday was due to a desire to rest and rotate following his compatriot's recent groin issue.
Jack Wilshere's start against West Ham was his first in the league for Arsenal in some 577 days, although it remains unclear at this stage if he will feature again at the Emirates Stadium this weekend with Ramsey still in the treatment room.
"I don't know yet. I will rotate a bit. We will have to see how everyone recovers. We've played four games in nine days, so we have to assess a bit. He has done well in the games he's played."
Arsenal's only long-term absentee remains Santi Cazorla after a ninth operation on his gruesome achilles injury scuppered hopes of a January comeback. Earlier today, Robert Pires, who played with the Spaniard at Villarreal, claimed that his friend would be absent for another six months.
Arsenal midfielder Aaron Ramsey could miss another three weeks as the result of a hamstring injury
Related topics : Arsenal FC Premier League Arsene Wenger Newcastle united


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N Engl J Med. 1992 Feb 20;326(8):507-12.
A randomized trial of prednisolone in patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis.
Ramond MJ1, Poynard T, Rueff B, Mathurin P, Théodore C, Chaput JC, Benhamou JP.
Service d'Hépatologie, Hôpital Beaujon, Clichy, France.
Controlled trials have yielded inconsistent results with regard to the efficacy of corticosteroids in the treatment of alcoholic hepatitis. Three meta-analyses suggest that they may be effective in patients with encephalopathy who have severe liver disease.
We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial comparing 28 days of prednisolone treatment (40 mg per day) with placebo in 61 patients with biopsy-proved alcoholic hepatitis and either spontaneous hepatic encephalopathy (n = 19) or a discriminant-function value higher than 32. The discriminant function used was as follows: 4.6 (prothrombin time-control time [in seconds]) + serum bilirubin (in micromoles per liter)/17. Fifty-seven of the patients had evidence of cirrhosis on biopsy. The primary end point was death within two months.
One patient was lost to follow-up after 56 days. Treatment was discontinued in two patients because of drug toxicity. By the 66th day after randomization, 16 of 29 placebo recipients had died (mean [+/- SE] survival, 45 +/- 8 percent), as compared with 4 of 32 prednisolone recipients (survival, 88 +/- 5 percent) (log-rank test, 10.9; P = 0.001). The survival advantage for prednisolone persisted after stratification according to center and the presence of encephalopathy, and after adjustment for prognostic factors in a proportional-hazards model.
Treatment with prednisolone improves the short-term survival of patients with severe biopsy-proved alcoholic hepatitis.
Randomized Controlled Trial
Double-Blind Method
Hepatic Encephalopathy/drug therapy
Hepatitis, Alcoholic/drug therapy*
Hepatitis, Alcoholic/mortality
Meta-Analysis as Topic
Prednisolone/therapeutic use*
PREDNISOLONE - Hazardous Substances Data Bank

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


In the 40s and 50s this symphony was considered to be the great american symphony! It is rarely heard today. What happened? Is there a great american symphony? I understand Naxos is recording all of Harris' symphonies. The first time I heard it was on a Mercury LP directed by Dorati. It was a blazing performance, not equaled by newer recordings.
smitty, I have loved this wonderful Symphony for many years. The main melody is so sweepingly beautiful, that it always stirs my heart. I have the Dorati and it was my introduction to the score, but, Leonard Bernstein gives the most beautiful account of this great Symphony on DG...and if sound does not matter, the legendary Serge Koussevitsky CD is still available, mate. Jarvi and Mata have also done this Symphony justice, too on CD.
Naxos is supposed to be recording a complete cycle, but, I do not think you can expect anything to be a certainty in today's CD Classical market.
smitty1931 wrote: In the 40s and 50s this symphony was considered to be the great american symphony! It is rarely heard today. What happened? Is there a great american symphony? I understand Naxos is recording all of Harris' symphonies. The first time I heard it was on a Mercury LP directed by Dorati. It was a blazing performance, not equaled by newer recordings.
There were/are many great American symphonies that seem to have fallen out of the repertoire - more the shame - but they are appearing on the Albany and Naxos labels, perhaps other small labels (Delos has a boxed set out and while its advertised content doesn't interest me too much - doesn't contain a representative selection of symphonies, it does contain a few by Hanson).
Agree with you about this symphony, altho my preferred recording is the Bernstein on DGG.
As for THE great American symphony, I'm voting for Copland III, altho his Organ Symphony stands well the test of time, in my ears, anyway.
smitty1931 wrote: In the 40s and 50s this symphony was considered to be the great american symphony! It is rarely heard today. What happened?
We played it a number of years back - quite a good piece..
" Is there a great american symphony?"
I understand Naxos is recording all of Harris' symphonies. The first time I heard it was on a Mercury LP directed by Dorati. It was a blazing performance, not equaled by newer recordings.
Bernstein/NYPO I from '61 takes the prize for me. his later recording [DG] is good too, but the eariler one is better.
My first exposure to Harris's Symphony #3 (in one movement) on disc was with Serge Koussevitzky and the Boston Symphony Orchestra on a commercial RCA release. Subsequently, I got to know the Leonard Bernstein version with the NYP on Columbia Records.
I'm sure MARIN ALSOP keeps it in her repertory....I have a live radio tape of her in her post-Koussevitzky prize win, with Oregon's Eugene Symphony. Great reading. She took this group out of the "regional sound."
A few weeks ago, I saw a fine performance of this wonderful work with David Robertson and the BSO at Tanglewood, on an all-American program consisting also of Bernstein sym. 2 and song cycles of Thomson and Barber sung by Thomas Hampson.
A very good concert, and let's hope some of the riches of American music are starting to be appreciated again.
I did notice some buzzing in the audience after the Harris, and, as best I could overhear, several surprised comments along the lines of, "Wow, that was good. How come I didn't know about this piece?" And yes, it's appropros that the BSO would be returning to this music, after all Koussevitsky did to boost Harris, Copland, Piston and other American composers.
I would find it difficult to describe either recording as "better" than the other. The earlier one (1961) is a gripping studio performance (17'09"), fairly typical of Bernstein's earier NYPO recordings of American symphonic music, full of drama and clearly defined rhythmic contrasts. It's an edge-of-the-seat experience.
The later recording (1985) is a live performance, somewhat slower (18'28") as Lennie was wont to do in his later years, more introspective than the earlier one, beautifully played and recorded -- one of the best live performances DG ever recorded as of that date -- resulting in a very moving experience.
The two recordings are examples of how a great work can be subject to diverse interpretations that are equally valuable. I wouldn't be without either.
Strange, how the 3rd symphony and indeed all of Harris's music has sunk out of sight leaving hardly a trace in the repertoire of American orchestras today. (It never did figure outside the U.S.) Copland is the only American Nationalist of the '30s and '40s who's kept his place in orchestral programs, and I suppose his Symphony #3 might be thought the Great American Symphony, if only by elimination. Except that while Harris's stock was falling, Ives's was rising, and I suppose he may now be considered the American symphonist par excellence.
Harris was very uneven as a symphony composer. I would place Howard Hanson, William Schuman, Roger Sessions and Peter Mennin clearly ahead of him. Charles Ives is an acquired taste. Quite a bit of his orchestral music is programmatic in content, such as his third symphony.
John F wrote: Strange, how the 3rd symphony and indeed all of Harris's music has sunk out of sight leaving hardly a trace in the repertoire of American orchestras today. (It never did figure outside the U.S.) Copland is the only American Nationalist of the '30s and '40s who's kept his place in orchestral programs, and I suppose his Symphony #3 might be thought the Great American Symphony, if only by elimination. Except that while Harris's stock was falling, Ives's was rising, and I suppose he may now be considered the American symphonist par excellence.
After having looked at Roy Harris. A Catalog of his Works, published by the California State University as a tribute to the composer, in 1974 (compiled by Robert Strassburg), it is readily apparent that, even during his life time, Harris's symphonies received little attention by recording orchestras. In fact, only the third symphony was recorded on several occasions. At the time of this publication, Harris was working on symphonies no. 10 "Abraham Lincoln," 11, and 12 "Pere Marquette symphony," which, to my knowledge, have not been well recorded either.
John Finley Williamson, Westminster Chorus, Victor 14803/04.
Since the DG Bernstein is not available, the Sony Bernstein is highly recommended, especially since the discmates are the folksy and disarmingly lovely Randall Thompson 'Symphony No. 2' and the powerful David Diamond 'Symphony No. 4'. A fabulous triumumvirate of wonderful American Symphonies from the first half of the 20th century.
I have an old reel-to-reel of the premiere of the Eighth Symphony--the "San Francisco Symphony." Done, of course, by the SFSO....led by its then-music-director, ENRIQUE JORDA.
This was virtually on the eve of his firing--when George Szell took ill in the middle of his guest-conducting stint (early '62), there was such a controversy (ignited, quite plainly, by SF music critic Alfred Frankenstein, who wrote Szell a letter demanding an explanation & suggesting that, to make up for it, Szell invite Jorda to guest in Cleveland the next season).
By this time, Jorda had brought orchestral discipline & virtuosity level to an all-time low, and even his staunchest supporters had to pull the rug out. Jorda did produce a rather thrilling performance, but it's a performance that's forever sounding like it's about to crash & burn. Harris' daughter Johanna played the piano part.
The public responded enthusiastically to Harris' exuberant three movement "Symphony 1933," with its rough-hewn epic qualities expressive of America's youthful culture.... A month later, February 1934, Columbia Records recorded it with the Boston Symphony. It was the first American commercial recording of a symphony by an American composer.
In producing a composer such as this master, America has placed herself in the front rank amongs those nations who are concerned with building a music for the future.
I have the pleasure of owning a version of this Koussevitzky recording, with Columbia Records.
...it had only one good movement, the second, and the orchestral parts, unlike the immaculate first symphony, had over 1,300 mistakes. It taught him a hard lesson.
I don't know if there exists any recording of this symphony.
I wrote that symphony when Hitler was taking over one country after another and I didn't know whether I was going to write any more symphonies or not. So, I thought it might be my last one. It is written as sort of a history of music from the beginning of Gregorian chant, leading up to the present."
Its five sections played without pause captures "the dark fastness of the American soul... its despair, its defeat and triumph." Of all Harris symphonies, the Third is the work for which he received the most numerous compliments from his fellow composers, i.e., Leonard Bernstein, Elliot Carter, Virgil Thomson, Colin McPhee, followed by his next great dramatic symphony, the Seventh. I have the Bernstein version of this symphony.
The Fourth Symphony is a "functional work" conceived and designed "to bring about musical collaboration between the local symphony orchestras of the United States and their local high schools, colleges, or community choruses." It relies on several US folk melodies such as "When Johnny Comes Marching Home Again," "Oh Bury Me NOt on the Lone Prairie," and a Black American spiritual song, "De Trumpet Sounds It in my Soul." It is not a master piece but I'm sure it has served the purpose for which Harris intended it. I have the Golschmann version on Vanguard.
Greetings to Roy Harris from the composers of the USSR! We greet in your person [the] young music of [the] American people. Across the seas and oceans we extend you our hand in [a] sincere fraternal handshake. Long live our victory." Signed Gliere, Shostakovich, Prokofieff, Myaskovsky, Khatchaturian, Kabalevsky, Muradelli, Khrennikov, Biely. Moscow cable 1943.
But this war symphony never achieved anything comparable to Shostakovich's Seventh. It was originally recorded [EDIT] by Koussevitzky, in 1943, and later recorded by Whitney's Louisville and Steinberg's Pittsburgh orchestras.
Symphony no. 6 (1944) is based on Lincoln's Gettysburg Address. The original recording was with Clarke and the Pacific Symphony Orchestra. Perhaps the reason why this symphony has not been recorded more often is that, notwithstanding his fine technique, Harris failed to produce the kind of music that ought to measure up to this momentous Lincoln Address. My version is the original recording with the PSO.
The work was conceived as a dynamic form with an uninterrupted time span of 20 minutes. In one sense it is a dance symphony; in another sense it is a study in harmonic and melodic rhythmic variation.
The Eight (1962) is a religiously inspired work, "an incandescent setting of St. Francis' Canticle of the Sun," including an important piano part for Harris' wife.
The Ninth (1962) was inspired by the Preamble of the American Constitution "with Walt Whitman providing three fragments of poetry for the fugue subjects."
The Tenth (1965) is "an immense commentary on the life and words of Abraham Lincoln in five movements, written for chorus, brasses, two amplified pianos and percussion.
The Eleventh (1967) "reflects the dilemma and strife of contemporary society, but ends on a note of hope for the future."
The Twelfth (1969), or "Pere Marquette Symphony," "in two parts, each the length of a Mozart Symphony, is scored for tenor solo, speaker and orchestra." It evokes the faith of Jesuit Father Marquette "who discovered the central wilderness portion of the United States."
The scope of the symphony is epic, and the tone heroic... In part II, particularly, there are suggestions of the external world in the form of stylized birdcalls and forest noises that summon up the Great Lakes wilderness of three hundred years ago... Part I, however, is the record of an interior journey, what one theologian described as "the positive tropism of a soul toward God." ... Running through the piece like a ribbon binding it together is a marvel of the Gregorian Chant... one of the greatest melodies ever conceived.
Source: Robert Strassburg, Roy Harris. A Catalog of his Works, California State Univ., 1973.
There is a fine modern recording of Symphony 2 with the Albany SO conducted by David Alan Miller on an Albany/Troy SACD Hybrid, together with Morton Gould's Symphony 3. It's not a mature work, but it's not all that bad either. Yet nothing Harris wrote reaches the level of his Symphony 3.
Although much younger than he, Johanna Harris was his wife. She out lived him and was married for a brief time to her student, composer Jake Heggie.
Harris' 3rd is simply one of the most compact, organically taut compositions in the repertoire. It does deserve to be heard more.
Harris' other symphonies worth a listen now and then are the 5th, 7th and 11th.
The 10th and 12 have not been recorded, or likely even performed in years. There is also a "Bicentennial Symphony" from 1976 (surprise) that has been numbered as # 13 from time to time. Unrecorded and unplayed in years as well. Reviews were not kind.
Yes, Johana Harris was his wife, and a very fine pianist in her own right. She left behind roughly 10 CDs of excellent material, only two of which were issued by MCA. Worth listening to, especially her Bach and Debussy.
"Johana" is Canadian-born Beula Duffey.
He attributes the success of his Third Symphony (1938) in large part to the most important event in his life, his marriage to a brilliant young pianist named Beula Duffey, whom he later rechristened Johana after the composer he admired most, Johann Sebastian Bach. For the occasion of his marriage, Harris gave his beautiful wife a most unusual wedding gift -- the famous Quintet for Piano and Strings in three movements.
I wonder how many of those composers actually heard any of Harris' music, or even had anything to do with writing and sending that message.
It was surely a politically motivated cable. Yet, there it is!


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Michele O'Marah
Michele O'Marah lives and works in Los Angeles. She received her BFA from the Tyler School of Art in Philadelphia. Her work has been exhibited at the Hammer Museum, Los Angeles; LA><ART, Los Angeles; San Francisco Museum of Modern Art; the Seattle Museum of Art; Musée d'art contemporain de Lyon, Lyon, France; Art in General, New York; Los Angeles Contemporary Exhibitions (LACE); Bard Center for Curatorial Studies, Annandale-on-Hudson, New York; the Wattis Institute, San Francisco; White Columns, New York; and the Museum of Contemporary Art, San Diego. O'Marah received a grant for Artistic Innovation from the Center for Cultural Innovation in 2014, and the Durfee Foundation Artist Resource Completion Grant in 2009.
What's her problem
MICHELE O'MARAH
September 9–October 29, 2016
Curated by Jamillah James
"What's Her Problem?: On Fourteen Years and Three Works by Michele O'Marah"
What's Her Problem? is the first solo presentation of Los Angeles-based artist Michele O'Marah's work in Canada. The exhibition includes three works, spanning fourteen years: Valley Girl (2002), her remake of the 1983 Martha Coolidge film; A Girl's Gotta Do What a Girl's Gotta Do (2010), a three-channel re-imagining of the box office bomb, Barb Wire (1996), starring Pamela Anderson (a former Vancouver resident); and production stills and site-specific scenic painting from O'Marah's new work-in-progress, It's Just Me (2015-ongoing).
O'Marah stages her videos in her studio, just east of Hollywood and south of Burbank where a number of films and television programs are produced in Los Angeles. She produces props and sets out of cardboard, construction paper, and found materials, and casts both friends and professional actors in her projects. O'Marah is part of a continuum of artists, such as Martha Rosler, Eleanor Antin, and Cindy Sherman who have embraced appropriation and masquerade as strategies to critique and lampoon power relations and social structures, though she does not appear in her own work. She has primarily centered women in her work, deconstructing various cinematic and televisual tropes that often affirm one-dimensional representations of women. Both Valley Girl and Barb Wire traffic in stereotypes of femininity, though in O'Marah's hands, they receive a feminist rescripting which relies on atemporality, artifice, and mutable subjectivity. Similarly, in It's Just Me, O'Marah utilizes the familiar sitcom and soap opera televisual formats as the platform to foreground decidedly serious topics such abortion, aging, divorce, and violence. Nicky, the put-upon the main character of It's Just Me is reminiscent of Bea Arthur's Maude Findlay, Louise Lasser's Mary Hartman, or Roseanne Barr's pseudonymous blue-collar housewife, who were considered radical for their time, at least on television. In depicting these serious social issues that impact the lives and bodies of women in real life and on screen with a comedic touch, O'Marah subverts the melodramatic, a device in film where high-key emotionality is symptomatic of a woman's body and life being out of her control.[1]
Retroactively, the term "valley girl" occupies a paradoxical space in the public imagination—the title recalls the satirical 1982 Frank Zappa song, sung by his daughter Moon Unit in "valleyspeak," a colloquial, regional dialect allegedly spoken by teenagers living in the San Fernando Valley of Los Angeles in the early 1980s.[2] The song toes the line of absurdist parody and comedic misogyny. Its lyrics feature a quasi call and response between Zappa and Zappa, the younger Zappa's retorts increasingly dismissive and sharp (i.e. "gag me with a spoon," "barf out," "grody to the max," etc.). The present-day usage of the term is also less than celebratory, a means of dismissing a certain type of person, thought of as vapid, perhaps less intelligent. The term is specific in its gendering, and laid the groundwork for a particularly virulent stereotype of femininity focused on consumerism, boys, and "fun" that re-emerged in the mid-2000s, embodied by the likes of socialites Paris Hilton and Kim Kardashian.
However, the film itself pushes back against this formulation; it was directed by a woman, and working independently of the Hollywood studio system. Coolidge hired friends as actors and on-set assistants, and exercised creative freedom over its production. Julie, the titular "valley girl," is actually quite smart and confident, even when making decisions that prove controversial, like her involvement with Randy, a punk rocker outside of her socioeconomic class. The film is largely considered a positive representation of girls and women; the year of its release was also an unusually woman-positive year for films. Other films released in the same year as Valley Girl include the sci-fi new wave classic Liquid Sky about a fashion model visited by aliens that derive energy from her orgasms; Silkwood, starring Meryl Streep as a laborer who exposes the wrongdoings of her powerful employer; John Sayles' Lianna, about a woman who comes out as lesbian and ends an oppressive marriage; Mr. Mom, a film that introduced working mothers and stay-at-home dads to a wider audience; and Lizzie Borden's radical queer feminist epic Born in Flames, among others. Still, Hollywood prefers the stability of familiarity, and 1983 was no different, as affirmed by the release of sexploitation films such as Porky's II and Screwballs, ultraviolent films like the Charles Bronson revenge flick 10 to Midnight and Scarface, and a number of Tom Cruise vehicles, such as Risky Business, The Outsiders, and All the Right Moves.
What makes Valley Girl a perfect source for an artist like O'Marah is the contradictions it presents when viewed retrospectively, which allows her ample space in which to play. Her conscious decision to stay true to the original source, only allowing the things she could control—aesthetic differences and means of production—to separate her version and Coolidge's, recuperates a reference that has since become another pejorative way of describing women and their ways of being in the world. The highly constructed anachronism of O'Marah's Valley Girl, a video made nearly 20 years after the original, also invites an element of chance and failure—as do all remakes—and with it, freedom that offers another layer of détournement and feminist inscription:
The cinema, refracted through the new technology, not only provides the raw material for re-forging links across the great divide of the 1980s but also suggests a metaphor for reflecting on the difficulty of understanding time and history. From this perspective, feminist alternative histories, the reconfiguring of storytelling, and the questioning of given patterns of temporality provide an invaluable point of departure.[3]
A Girl's Gotta Do What a Girl's Gotta Do is a delirious opus to unabashed "girl power" in three parts: "Don't Call Me Babe," "Word Up!," and "The Death of Barb Kopetski." The three videos, at slightly different lengths and accompanied by different audio tracks, further disorient the viewer with the introduction of three different actresses in the role of "Barb," originally played by Baywatch actress Pamela Anderson in 1996 at the height of her popularity. Time has not been kind to Barb Wire, which presently maintains a 28% rating on movie review site Rotten Tomatoes. Pamela Anderson herself and all she signifies in pop culture may stand as a roadblock for a more nuanced appreciation of the film. Still, for all its campy feminist aspirations, the film suffers from wooden acting and comedic misfires, and is emblematic of the hit-or-miss film sub-genre of comic book adaptations. Box office equates success with attendance, and female-centered comic book vehicles have historically suffered from poor marketing, worse scripts (Tank Girl, anyone?), and the insistence on privileging the sexiness and feminine wiles of the lead over her character's power (not to say that these traits are mutually exclusive). Barb Kopetski is the hero throughout in Barb Wire—she is not a badass in three-quarters of the film, only to be rescued in the end by her male romantic interest, as is often the case in Hollywood films with "strong female leads".
O'Marah isolates three sequences in the film that highlight the complexities of Barb's person: a fight sequence showing her in black leather-clad, ass-kicking action, which ends with Barb delivering the tag line "don't call me babe"; her vulnerable side, showing her relationship with ex-boyfriend Axel Hood and a sex scene focused on her pleasure; and, of course, a Barb as bombshell sequence, with a Pamela Anderson doppelgänger, writhing and stripping in the rain. O'Marah ratchets up the camp factor with intentionally modest scene dressing and props, and over-the-top acting, while demonstrating that even a film as critically maligned as Barb Wire has potential for redemption. Though the experience of the film is compressed into roughly ten minutes of layered video, O'Marah gives the film a radical facelift that would not otherwise be possible in a film world obsessed with the physicality of women to the exclusion of all other traits that fully realize her subjectivity.
The quiet chaos of Nicky and her family in It's Just Me unfolds episodically. Over the course of the videos, currently in development, Nicky will experience a number of life-changing incidents, such as an unwanted pregnancy, her parents' aging (and her senior father coming out as gay), and a mass shooting at a local frozen yogurt shop that imperils her children's safety. Yet, her constancy and stability as a character is expected throughout. O'Marah blends the narrative conventions of situation comedy and soap opera to deliver a nuanced representation of a female character habitually at her wit's end. In the photographs on view, Nicky appears three times: a vintage image of her with her best friend and neighbor from the 1990s, as a clown at a birthday party, and a Valentine's Day keepsake photo of her dancing with her now ex-husband. The rest of the images, highly stylized with props and costumes produced or sourced by O'Marah, are of Nicky's children and parents during holidays and special occasions, which demonstrates the weight of these characters in her life. It also underscores the centrality of the familial unit in many American soap operas and sitcoms:
The family remains close precisely because it is perpetually in a chaotic state. The unhappiness generated by the family can only be solved in the family. Misery becomes not, as in many 19th century women's novels, the consequence and sign of the family's breakdown, but the very means of its functioning and perpetuation.[4]
It's Just Me comprises ten episodes, throughout which time operates in an elastic fashion. In her 1981 essay "Women's Time," French theorist Julia Kristeva suggests that the experience of temporality by women is complicated and discursive, accounting for both history and the present, while interpolated by other social factors that impact their persistence in the world.[5] In the world of soap operas, time routinely shifts between protracted developments of narrative points and acceleration, notably in the seemingly overnight maturation of child characters. The soap is a basic unit of pop cultural melodrama, which focuses on the emotional state of its female characters as it develops or deteriorates over time. A soap opera's main character always being mired in drama in order to advance plot structures that the viewer experiences; even if their world is falling apart onscreen, chances are, the main character's steadfast determination to just be offers some comforting stability. Critic Tania Modleski writes that soap operas "offer the promise of immortality and eternal return—same time tomorrow."[6] Even though the formats O'Marah appropriates guarantee endless predicaments for female characters, she lightens the load by punctuating the work with humor, approaching parody.
Presenting O'Marah's work in Vancouver is not an arbitrary decision. As a site, Vancouver, sometimes referred to as the "Hollywood of the North," routinely stands in for American cities in television and film. It is also a nexus of a vein of 1980s conceptual photography, practiced by Jeff Wall, Stan Douglas, and Rodney Graham, among others, that painstakingly staged its mise-en-scène, and appropriated cinema and art history. Like Vancouver, O'Marah's home of Los Angeles has served as stage and scene of an endless procession of fantasy and simulacra both in the art world and in film, which influences her methods of production and approach to the visual. Camp, simulation, and postmodern reconstruction are the primary strategies O'Marah uses, which elevate and recuperate the original works she cites. As a whole, the three bodies of work presented in this exhibition depict a range of female representation with the desire to redress the problematic nature of genre and stereotype. By selecting source texts which are themselves reproductions of classic texts (Barb Wire is a take on Casablanca [1942], Valley Girl a new wave update of Romeo and Juliet), and working through two time-honored staples of televisual narrative (the soap opera and sitcom) she is able to recast convention with radical and transformative potential.
Jamillah James is Curator at the Institute of Contemporary Art, Los Angeles. 2016
1 In "Film Bodies: Gender, Genre and Excess" film scholar Linda WIlliams posits the conventional similarities of horror, pornography, and melodrama (such as soap operas and the films of Douglas Sirk) in the treatment of women and their bodies, and the types of response these works seek to elicit from audiences. Film Quarterly Vol. 44, no. 4 (1991): 2-13
2 Wikipedia contributors, "Valleyspeak," Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valleyspeak. Accessed September 4, 2016.
3 Laura Mulvey, "Looking at the Past from the Present: Rethinking Feminist Film Theory of the 1970s" in Signs Vol. 30, No. 1: Beyond the Gaze: Recent Approaches to Film Feminisms Special Issue (Autumn 2004): 1291
4 Tania Modleski, "The Search for Tomorrow in Today's Soap Operas." Reprinted in Amelia Jones, ed., The feminism and visual culture reader. London: Routledge, 2003: 295
5 Julia Kristeva, "Women's Time," Signs, vol. 7, no. 1 (Autumn 1981): 13-35
6 Modleski 295
Postscript 66: Ingrid Olauson on Michelle O'Marah


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Oakwood Stories
The Special Event
Oakwood School was founded in 1951 by parents who wanted to provide their children with an educational experience that was rich in the arts, sciences, and humanities and challenging to their creative, intellectual, and physical capacities. They wanted a learning community which would foster independence of thought, intellectual integrity, sensitivity to the needs of others, and prepare students for participation in a democratic society.
Oakwood remains committed to the founders' goals. We believe that a school environment should foster individual growth and an active communal life, should hold intellectual attainment in high regard, and should encourage young people to exercise increasing autonomy and responsibility—for one another, for the environment, and for the larger world.
We believe that a school best prepares children for the future by focusing on the quality of their experiences in the present. We believe that teachers and learners should inspire one another, and that school must be rewarding in its own right. And we believe that young people's feelings and thoughts should be accorded respect and dignity.
To guide students toward mastery in their academic, artistic, and athletic pursuits.
We want students to grapple meaningfully with ideas, to discover relationships among disciplines, and to become independent and moral thinkers.
To spark passion.
We want young people to become wholeheartedly immersed in their work. We believe that intelligence and imagination enrich each other, and that to involve a student passionately in learning is to involve the whole person.
To cultivate depth of character.
We seek to nurture students' empathy, imagination, and moral courage; to foster a sense of responsibility and humility, along with a habit of service; and to instill a lifelong commitment to social justice. We intend for the development of their intellect and character to be intertwined, so that their choices are guided by internal controls and sensitivity to the needs of others.
To help students gain self-knowledge.
We want students to learn about their strengths and needs as learners. We seek to accommodate and appreciate the unique qualities of each young person and to provide multiple opportunities for students to succeed, to learn from mistakes, and to take risks for the sake of learning.
To foster a sense of community.
We seek to create a vibrant public life in the school, where students learn to express themselves fluently and responsibly, and to consider differing perspectives respectfully. We believe that an environment most conducive to learning and growth is diverse and inclusive, and balances seriousness of purpose with a sense of play.
Finally, we recognize that the school can best achieve its aims when students' experiences are predominantly positive and joyful, and where their relationships with teachers, and with one another, are caring and trusting.
Adopted by the Board of Trustees, November, 2016
Secondary Campus
11600 Magnolia Blvd
North Hollywood, CA 91601-3015
11230 Moorpark Street


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Rare findings and promising results are the conclusions after the first MAR-ECO Fish Taxonomy workshop, where three major groups were studied; the families of the rattails or grenadiers, the slickheads and the deep-sea eels.
Text: Franz Uiblein. Photo: Thomas de lange Wenneck
A MAR-ECO Fish Taxonomy workshop, held at Espegrend Marine Biological Station, University of Bergen on 21-28 February 2005, was dedicated to the memory of the late Prof. Luiz Saldanha and Dr. Yuri Sazonov, both well-respected deep-sea fish ichthyologists during their lifetimes, who studied the fauna of deep-sea ridges and had immense knowledge on the taxonomy of the three fish families treated during this meeting. The workshop was funded by University of Bergen, Norwegian Research Council, Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and MAR-ECO.
Specialists and students participated
Participants (from left): John Galbraith, National Marine Fisheries Service, Woods Hole, MA, USA; Nicola King, Oceanlab, University of Aberdeen, UK; Alexey M. Orlov, VNIRO, Moscow, Russia; Gui Menezes, Departamento de Oceanografia e Pescas, Universidade dos Acores, Horta, Portugal; Franz Uiblein, Institute of Marine Research, Bergen (organizer); Manuel J. Biscoito, Marine Biological Station and Natural History Museum, Funchal, Madeira, Portugal; Guro Gjelsvik, Department of Biology, University of Bergen; Ingvar Byrkjedal, Bergen Museum, University of Bergen (organizer); Tomio Iwamoto, Department of Ichthyology, California Academy of Sciences, San Fransisco, USA and Thomas de lange Wenneck, Institute of Marine Research, Bergen
This was the first of a series of meetings devoted to the identification of the fishes collected during the MAR-ECO cruise on the RV G.O.Sars in June-July 2004. Among the participants were taxonomists with specialist competence on the three major groups studied, the families of the rattails or grenadiers (Macrouridae), the slickheads (Alepocephalidae), and the deep-sea eels (Synaphobranchidae). Also students and scientists involved in ecological studies that are partly based on the fish material identified participated.
After introductory remarks by the organizers, Tomio Iwamoto, John Galbraith and Manuel Biscoito outlined the most important taxonomic characters for identification of the respective groups and provided some practical demonstrations for the participants. Then identification work started with a daily schedule from early morning till late night, interrupted only by meals, a social gathering on Friday evening, and a half-day excursion to Bergen city on Saturday making use of the marvellous weather.
Promising results
The results of the workshop are very promising: 871 specimens belonging to 41 species were examined and the preliminary identification results obtained during the cruise were partly revised. In the most speciouse group, the slickheads, for instance, about one third of the original identification results had to be corrected thus clearly demonstrating the need for this workshop.
Fish material of particular taxonomic and systematic interest was studied into more detail including slickheads of the rare species Micrognathus normani of which only four specimens had been known worldwide. Hence the three individuals collected by MAR-ECO almost doubled this number.
Rare findings
Very interesting were also specimens of the grenadier species Paracetonurus flagellicauda that was originally described based on the collections from the RV Michael Sars-expedition in 1910 and were now encountered again, most probably for the first time since! Also, a member of the genus Kumba, a very rare group of grenadiers, was found. This requires further taxonomic analysis to arrive at a definitive conclusion, if it is an already known species or even new to science.
Taxonomic work continues
At the final day of the workshop the results of the identification work were discussed and plans were made to contribute to a joint publication, an annotated species list, that shall provide an overview of all the fish species collected during the G.O. Sars MAR-ECO cruise. Also, great interest was expressed to present the results of the workshop at the coming MAR-ECO meeting in Lisbon in June 2005 and to evaluate the possibility of further-going studies of the material including systematic revisions, molecular phylogenies of distinct families, and ecological investigations.


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Lingual Nerve
Anatomy ▶ Head and Neck ▶ Nerves ▶ Lingual Nerve
Course and relations
Clinical Significance
Lingual Nerve Injury
Palsy of Lingual Nerve
The lingual nerve is a sensory division belonging to the posterior branch of the mandibular division of the trigeminal nerve.
The lingual nerve arises via posterior division of the mandibular nerve and travels down in the middle of the ramus of the mandible as well as the medial pterygoid muscle.
It arises around 1 cm inferior towards the skull. It travels first among tensor palati and lateral pterygoid and then afterwards among lateral and medial pterygoid muscles.
It combines with the chorda tympani nerve around 2 cm inferior towards the skull. After rising up at the lower margin of the lateral pterygoid, it first run inferior and anterior in the middle of the ramus of the mandible and medial pterygoid, comes in direct connection with the mandible where the bone is thinned, just above the posterior end of the mylohyoid line, in order to create a shallow hollow inferior and medial towards the last molar tooth.
Lingual Nerve – Course and Relations
This groove divides the attachments of pterygomandibular raphe superiorly and mylohyoid muscle inferiorly. On the superior surface of the mylohyoid it goes inside the mouth, and then it traverses the styloglossus in order to extend to the lateral side of the hyoglossus. Finally, it is located on the surface of the genioglossus. Here it coils around the submandibular duct and splits within its terminal divisions.
The lingual nerve produces the following two sets of branches:
Branches of communication:
Two or more which go towards submandibular ganglion.
One or two branches which go inferiorly along the anterior margin of the hyoglossus in order to merge together with the hypoglossal nerve.
Branches of distribution:
A gingival branch towards the inner surface of the gum.
Few branches towards the sublingual gland.
Branches towards the anterior two-third portion of the tongue.
From the mucous membrane of the anterior two-thirds of the tongue, the lingual nerve provides general somatic afferent innervation. It also conveys nerve fibers which are not a portion of the trigeminal nerve, like the chorda tympani nerve of the facial nerve, as well as parasympathetic and sympathetic fibers. The submandibular ganglion is overhung by the lingual nerve via two nerve strands.
Due to its anatomic position across space in the middle of the lingual part of the ascending ramus of the mandible as well as the tongue musculature posteriorly, lingual nerve injury can arise with mandibulotomy.
As many patients who require mandibulotomy due to cancer also need neck dissection, neck dissection can be performed first and in order to label the lingual nerve with a vessel loop which is meant for its careful preservation can be useful at the time of dissection of the floor of the mouth afterwards.
Burning paresthesia of the tongue may be created in a few patients after the repair of the floor of the mouth as a result of lingual nerve injury. The nerve is enveloped all over the Warthin duct of the submandibular gland within the floor of the mouth, and when the defect is being closed it can be injured with sutures. This paresthesia must be prevented because it is permanent.
Tongue numbness and a loss of the ability to taste are generally caused due to Palsy of the lingual nerve. By the compression of the endotracheal tube against tissue, injuries can occur with extensive surgical procedures of the head and neck. Generally, lingual nerve injury happens due to pressure against the mandible and the extending of the pterygoid muscles, which causes compression of the nerve. Sometimes, lingual nerve injury arises after placement in the prone position of the patient.


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Module for transforming model equations into "abstract code" that can be then be further translated into executable code by the codegen module.
This module defines the StateUpdateMethod class that acts as a base class for all stateupdaters and allows to register stateupdaters so that it is able to return a suitable stateupdater object for a given set of equations. This is used for example in NeuronGroup when no state updater is given explicitly.
Exact integration for linear equations.
IndependentStateUpdater A state update for equations that do not depend on other state variables, i.e.
LinearStateUpdater A state updater for linear equations.
get_linear_system(eqs, variables) Convert equations into a linear system using sympy.
independent A state update for equations that do not depend on other state variables, i.e.
linear A state updater for linear equations.
ExplicitStateUpdater(description[, ...]) An object that can be used for defining state updaters via a simple description (see below).
diagonal_noise(equations, variables) Checks whether we deal with diagonal noise, i.e.
split_expression(expr) Split an expression into a part containing the function f and another one containing the function g.
ExponentialEulerStateUpdater A state updater for conditionally linear equations, i.e.
get_conditionally_linear_system(eqs[, variables]) Convert equations into a linear system using sympy.
exponential_euler A state updater for conditionally linear equations, i.e.


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No sex, please, we're from St Kitts and Nevis
400 Vaginas in a row. Well, hell, why not? (Warning, explicit photography; work warning.)
1400 redheads in one place - a celebration of Ranga-dom!
Posts Tagged 'New South Wales'
"WHAT THE F*** JUST HAPPENED?"
Tags: Australia, Australian election 2019, Bill Shorten, Coalition Government, Coalition victory, Labor Party, left wing, Liberal-Natioanl Coalition, New South Wales, Queensland, right wing, Scott Morrison, Victoria
As I write this, just two days after the Australian election, the sense of shock in the electorate at the Liberal-National Coalition's narrow victory over Labor is still causing most citizens to mutter, confused, "What the actual fuck?" I am not being coarse for the sake of effect. That is by far the most common comment.
It's not just that there was a widespread sense that the Coalition, victim of recent leadership instability, was long overdue a "pull yourselves together" kicking.
It was that a Labor victory had been predicted for so long, with "two party preferred" margins of as high as 53-47 in their favour being forecast in usually reliable opinion polls as late as the morning of election day, that the eventual win by their opponents was … well, flabbergasting. Stupefying. "Shome mishtake, shurely?" (Election night in Australia is universally accompanied by parties and heavy drinking.)
In its way, this result is just as shocking (and therefore interesting) as the Brexit vote and the Presidential win of Donald Trump.
So in the end, what was it that produced a result which looks like ending up as 51-49 outcome in favour of the Coalition and Prime Minister Scott Morrison, now owners of a wafter thin majority that will theoretically allow them to continue to hold the Government benches for another three years?
There are many factors and I will try and unpick them intelligently for any election tragics out there.
All the natural charisma of a brick.
Firstly and most obviously, the Labor leader, Bill Shorten, was an unpopular figure, in part because he had a history as a dominant and powerful head of the Australian Council of Trade Unions, which is not an organisation which spends much of its time cultivating the affection of the middle class centre of Australia where most Australians sit, but also because in Parliament and on TV he exhibited all the natural charisma of a brick.
Ironically a decent, engaging and friendly character away from the cameras, once they turned on he became over-controlled, lecturing, somewhat superior and just plain boring.
And as he was Labor Leader for six years, that was a long time to bore people.
The recently anointed Leader of the Liberal Party, by contrast, has been a relentlessly cheerful "ordinary bloke", with an ever-present baseball cap perched on his head, who made no pretence of any great intellectual heft, but insisted he had plenty of empathy for the "battlers" – Aussies who want a "fair go", or as they picturesquely put it here, "a fair suck of the saveloy".
As one Liberal insider put it: "When he got the job last year he immediately began building his persona as an ordinary, knockabout bloke who can knock back a beer and roll up his shirt sleeves to have a go. He knew the importance of filling in the picture before his opponents defined him to the public."
By achieving this, Morrison captured the aspiration of many working people to not actually be working people, thanks very much, but rather to ascend to comfortable middle class status.
Not for nothing was Scott Morrison's first act after his win to go to his evangelical Church on Sunday morning, and then to go to the football on Sunday night.
Whereas the Labor Party – with a complex and substantial "tax and spend" agenda that required endless explanation – appeared mired in the class-warfare battles of previous decades, stating, in effect, "We'll tax you what we need and then spend it on you as we see fit", to which many Australians on Saturday clearly said "Thanks a lot, I'll just keep me money and spend it myself".
Whether or not a new Liberal-National Coalition government will actually do anything much to help the people who switched their votes to them remains to be seen – they didn't expect themselves to win either, so they have a very sketchy plan for government – but painting Labor as the party of higher taxation was certainly a successful part of their pitch. It will be a long cold day in hell till a political party in Australia again goes into an election promising significant tax reform or even tax increases.
This effect was multiplied by the Labor Party's inability (wary of offending environmentally-aware/Green voters further south) to enthusiastically support the proposed Adani coal mine in regional Queensland.
The Coalition found it simplicity itself to portray Labor as wishy-washy on the mine (which they were) and by implication, therefore, as wishy-washy on jobs for regional people – estimated as maybe as many as 15,000 jobs from Adani alone. This effect was re-doubled by no apparent solution to endlessly rising power prices and problems with water supply to regional areas.
The wash up is that are now no Labour seats left in Queensland anywhere north of the Brisbane river. And the "don't care about jobs" message hurt Labor in regional New South Wales, too, where the impact of Adani was little more than symbolic of two very different agendas for Government, but where Labor was portrayed as having forgotten their core base (and the extraction industries generally) in favour of chasing a more ideologically-driven pro-environment vote.
The scale of the rout is notable. Across Queensland Coalition candidates in fact polled 57 per cent to Labor's 43 per cent. Unheard of margins.
"How good is Queensland?!" If you're a Liberal, very, very good.
"How good is Queensland?!" roared Scott Morrison when the results were known, and he was cheered to the rafters by an audience in New South Wales. It's hard to explain to an overseas audience quite how unlikely that is. Maybe Manchester United supporters offering to go over to Anfield and cheer on Liverpool so the Kop can have a day off. Lakers fans cheering for the Celtics. That sort of thing.
By running dead on new coal mines and talking up their climate change credentials, Labor made a bold attempt to speak to inner city Sydney and seats across left-leaning Victoria in particular, which had recently delivered a massive electoral setback to the Liberals in a recent State election.
The attempt failed.
Although the Green vote around the nation stayed roughly the same at 10.5% (approximately, counting continues), blue collar voters were resolutely unimpressed.
It's not that they don't care about climate change, it's just that they want to care about it without paying more tax on a second investment home, (often called a "bricks and mortar pension" in Australia), or their parents having to give up long-established tax breaks on shares in their superannuation portfolio.
Ironically in well-to-do Coalition seats in the centre of cities there were small swings to the Greens and even to high-taxing Labor – the so-called "Doctor's wives" effect, where comfortably off people dabble in more progressive politics because whatever the outcome it won't really affect them. But move into the outer suburban ring and the effect was reversed, leading to a clutch of vital Coalition wins in seats in marginal seats in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania where they should, by all expectations, have been swept aside.
So it is worthwhile considering why the Liberal-National scare tactics on tax were so effective.
Australians are not, in a general sense, anti-taxation in the way that some in America are. It's not that they are selfish. Indeed, Australians donate more per head of population to charity – including to charities overseas – than any other country in the world.
It is rather that they do not trust Government to spend those taxes wisely.
Simple idea, cleverly expressed, and devastatingly powerful.
As part of a growing trend worldwide, Australians are deeply suspicious of Government at all levels, so when the Coalition festooned all the polling stations in the country in bunting – in stark Labour red – with an unflattering photo of Bill Shorten looking, frankly, confused, with the slogan "Labor: It's the Bill Australia can't afford." it was highly effective. At no stage did Labor ever manage to convey their contrasting priorities with such devastating and effective directness.
And it was this scenario – starkly similarly to Clinton's shock loss to Trump in America – that led one member of the public writing in to a radio station on Sunday morning to dismiss the Labor effort as having been led by "Hillary Shorten". You could hear the heads nodding in agreement around the country's breakfast tables.
Or in the case of those who were yet to get up having drunk themselves to sleep in either distress or celebration just a few hours previously, there was a muttered "Yeah … what she said …" from under a pillow.
Perhaps the most significant thing to say about this election is that it shows, once again, that political parties in the Western world are no longer either mere vehicles for those who traditionally made up their supporter base or even perfectly aligned to those who they seek to lead, and especially on the Left.
Pennsylvania coal miners voted for Trump. On Saturday so did coal miners in the Hunter Valley in New South Wales and those who want to be coal miners in Queensland. Voters in Wales and Northern England and the South West voted against their obvious self-interest for Brexit. On Saturday so did those working in the tourism industry in Queensland who said, in effect, we'd rather have a coal mine than the Barrier Reef.
This time round, Australia's Conservative parties portrayed themselves as simple-thinking, straight-talking managers, eschewing the internecine struggles that have consumed them in recent years (the Coalition parties have been split between hard right cultural warriors and small-l liberals, much like in Britain) and opted instead for a pitch that they were just a bunch of good old blokes on the side of "ordinary" Aussies – yes, even those who work down coal mines, milk the cows, and for those – by offering vague and very unlikely promises on road building – who are stuck in commuter traffic queues for hours every day.
By contrast the Labor Party was simply too overly intellectual, too long-winded, and they constantly beetled off down obscurantist paths – all very noble in their own right, to be sure – without taking care of their knitting. As one radio commentator explained: "I went to see the mechanic who works on my car, and I asked him who he was going to vote for, and he said Liberal because he didn't want to lose his tax break on the one investment property his family owned. When I told him there was no chance of that, because any change to the law meant that existing arrangements were grandfathered, he looked at me and said 'What the fuck does 'Grandfathered' mean?'"
Quite.
You couldn't summarise Labor's failures to explain their goals any more simply, nor could you sound a better warning to the Left around the world as they seek to come to terms with the appeal of populist right wing heroes.
It's hard to know exactly what will happen next. The Coalition now have a clean slate and the thrill of a totally unexpected win, and they could take the chance to shift their party back to the centre, (especially as former Prime Minister Tony Abbott, leader of the hard right, lost his seat to an Independent), deliver modest but welcome tax cuts, finally make some progress on climate change – a notable failure for some years – and de-fang Labor for a generation.
Labor will retreat and lick their wounds, but they already show little sign of having learned their lesson, as their next Leader, far from a consensus politician from the centre, will very likely be a dyed-in-the-wool tub-thumping leftie. Which will do wonders for reviving the spirits of their own members, but very little for the electorate at large. Sound familiar?
In the meantime, Australians will move on to arguing about this week's football, and saying "Thank God that's over for another three years." Although with a likely Government majority of just 1, they might be counting those chickens a tad early.
Australian Federal Election Result (two days early)
Posted: September 5, 2013 in Political musings
Tags: Anthony Albanese, Australian Labor Party, Coalition, election result prediction, Federal election result, Kevin Rudd, New South Wales, Queensland, Tony Abbott
"I have seen the future … trust me, Kevin, you really don't want to know."
We are on record as calling this election for the Liberal-National Coalition about two years ago, and at no time, even in the briefest of honeymoons enjoyed by Kevin Rudd after his re-election as Labor leader, have we changed our mind.
Accordingly, it's a bit boring for us to say "Whoo-hoo, Tony Abbott's going to win." Blind Freddie knows Tony Abbott's going to win.
But how big, hmmm?
Well, we are also on record as saying that this could be the worst result for Labor in living memory.
Current radio talkback scuttlebutt is predicting a Lib-NP coalition win with roughly a thirty seat margin. Say 90 seats to 60.
We're prepared to go further than that.
We think the swing from Labor to the Coalition nationally could be as high as 7% overall, rarely lower, and in some places higher, meaning the final Labor haul could be as low as 40 up to 50 seats, and the Liberal-NP haul could be in the 100-110 ten seat area.
A win, in other words, of truly historic proportions.
Both options are currently paying just over three bucks on Centrebet – in other words, the market agrees with me. (Betting prices are always a great indicator of likely results, because the party apparatchicks supplement their earnings by betting on what they know the likely results will be.)
Does the size of the win really matter? Well, no, not really. Except that faced with such an utter repudiation, it is possible that Kevin Rudd will resign the Labor leadership immediately, where with a closer result he might have hung on for a bit to see what happened. Who will take over? Surely Bill Shorten, but then again, who really knows with the Australian Labor Party any more? Their dearth of Front Bench talent is quite scary. Anthony Albanese would be another possibility, but, excellent performer that he is, is he really alternative Prime Minister material? I doubt it.
Why do we think the result will be even worse than currently predicted? Well, bluntly, we think, when polled, many voters who are actually intending to very begrudgingly support Tony Abbott are simply too embarrassed to say so, but they are nevertheless determined to wipe the Labor Party from power this time.
So for the record, these are the seats I think the Coalition will gain – and there could even be more than this – listed here with their new Coalition winning margins. There will possibly be some real huge shocks, even bigger than some on this list.
If you happen to live in any of these seats, clicking the seat name will take you to a detailed breakdown of that seat. (Courtesy of the ABC's consistently excellent psephologist, Anthony Green.) Or you can just read our rationale.
Richmond NSW GainedNAT 0.01%
The local Labor MP is popular and may resist the trend, but this is traditionally a conservative seat and we pick it to return to the Nationals.
Barton NSW GainedLIB 0.1%
With well-known local MP Robert McClelland retiring and the less well-known Labor candidate up against a Greek-extraction local Mayor, Doc Evatt's old seat will be one of the more painful losses of the night for the ALP.
Werriwa NSW GainedLIB 0.3%
Martin Ferguson's elder brother Laurie should be a shoe-in for this seat held by former Labor leaders Gough Whitlam and Mark Latham but it is another pick by us for a shock result in Sydney's western suburbs.
Bass TAS GainedLIB 0.3%
Geoff Lyons turned this into a safe seat for Labor at the last election, but continuing economic malaise in Tassie and coming up against a decorated war hero for the Libs will probably see him off.
Hindmarsh SA GainedLIB 0.9%
The precedent to look at here is the defeat of the Keating Labor Government in 1996. Redistribution has made it slightly safer for Labor recently, but it's older population are even less inclined to vote ALP than everyone else. Opinion poll in late August had it at 50:50 two-party-preferred. Labor have gone backward since then: gone.
Perth WA GainedLIB 1.1%
Labor have parachuted in a popular ex State MP and Minister and this seat may buck the trend, but no one is sure how big Stephen Smith's personal vote was. (Our guess, it will still go.)
Chisholm VIC GainedLIB 1.2%
Ex-speaker Anna Burke is popular locally but Victoria is falling back in line with the rest of the country after its pro-Gillard performance last time, and an excellent ethnic-Vietnamese Liberal candidate and a clutch of stalking horse minor right-wing parties all preferencing him will see her gone.
Oxley QLD GainedLNP 1.2%
Pauline Hanson's old seat has more couples with babies than any other in the state: no doubt paid parental leave will resonate here. And both Katter and Palmer preferencing the Libs will make this just one more of the overall ugly picture in the Sunshine State for the ALP.
Fremantle WA GainedLIB 1.3%
Melissa Parke is attractive, popular and talented, with a very impressive CV: she may hang on: but we pick her to fall in Carmen Lawrence's old seat, somewhat unfairly perhaps, to the country-wide Liberal/NP tsunami.
Rankin QLD GainedLNP 1.6%
Craig Emerson's retiring, and this rock solid Labor seat falling will be one of the news stories of the night. It won't help the new Labor candidate that he was a policy wonk and then Chief of Staff to Wayne Swan, a man now actively detested in Queensland, nor by both Katter and Palmer interfering.
Kingsford Smith NSW GainedLIB 1.8%
Another "shock horror" news story. Bye bye Peter Garrett. Bye bye seat.
Dobell NSW GainedLIB 1.9%
Craig Thomson's seat. Need we say more?
Parramatta NSW GainedLIB 2.6%
Nearly went back to the Libs last time. Will this time.
Eden-Monaro NSW GainedLIB 2.8%
Australia's most reliable "litmus test" seat, having been won by the party that formed government at every election since 1972. It will be again.
Blair QLD GainedLNP 2.8%
Labor's Shayne Neumann is popular locally, but that won't save him from the anti-Labor swing in Qld.
Page NSW GainedNAT 2.8%
Since 1990 the electorate has been another key bellwether seat, being won at every election by the party that formed government after the election. Sitting Labor MP Janelle Saffin is popular, but nothing will save Labor in NSW this time round.
Lingiari NT GainedCLP 3.3%
Combattive ALP member Warren Snowdon might buck the trend in the seat with the largest percentage of indigenous Australians in the country. But we doubt it. Then again, the NT is a long way from anywhere. CLP candidate confident.
Capricornia QLD GainedLNP 3.3%
Michelle Landry did well for the Libs last time in a seat with a large mining sector. With Labor MP Kirsten Livermore retiring, she'll go one better this time.
Brand WA GainedLIB 3.7%
Kim Beazely's old seat has been going slightly bad for the ALP for a while. The decline will be terminal for Minister Gary Gray on Saturday. Late icing on the Liberal cake.
Lilley QLD GainedLNP 3.8%
You really think Wayne Swan can win his seat again? Really?
Reid NSW GainedLIB 4.3%
John Murphy is an assiduously hard working local member in what should be rock-solid Labor territory. But we don't think he can resist the swing … when it's on, it's on.
Petrie QLD GainedLNP 4.5%
One of the more re-electable ALP members, Yvette D'Ath still looks very likely to be swept away in the landslide.
La Trobe VIC GainedLIB 5.3%
Redistributions, demographic change, and the national swing will see this seat return to its former Liberal MP, Jason Wood
Banks NSW GainedLIB 5.6%
Only ever held by Labor since it's establishment, the local state seats have already moved to the Libs, and Labor's Daryl Melham cannot resist how badly the ALP are on the nose in NSW. Gone.
Moreton QLD GainedLNP 5.9%
Doesn't matter how many times electorate redistributions nudge the seat back to the ALP, it's gone in the Queensland bloodbath this time for sure.
Lindsay NSW GainedLIB 5.9%
Assistant Treasurer David Bradbury has no Liberal cock-ups to rely on this time. He will be one of the early high-profile Ministerial casualties of the night.
Robertson NSW GainedLIB 6.0%
Deborah O'Neill was one of the surprise winners for Labor at the last election, but there seems no realistic chance of her resisting the pro-Coalition swing this time.
Greenway NSW GainedLIB 6.1%
Despite Liberal candidate Jaymes Diaz stumbling early on, there seems no reason why this seat will not head back to the Liberals. His popularity with local branches will help him perform credibly on the ground. And it's Western Sydney. Nuff said.
Deakin VIC GainedLIB 6.4%
Will be one of the early gains for the Coalition. Always a Liberal-leaning seat, it's a certain gain this time.
Corangamite VIC GainedLIB 6.7%
Popular local TV presenter and activist Sarah Henderson will win this most marginal seat easily. Indeed, she could even win on first preferences.
Anyhow. Please do not telephone after about 9pm on Saturday evening. We will be drunkenly incoherent at the prospect of a Government with a massive majority (always a bad thing in our view) which will be much, much more right wing than people realise. Just think, it if it wasn't for the machinations of the likes of Nick Minchin, most of us could be even quite looking forward to the erudition and moderation of "small l" liberal Malcom Turnbull being PM on Sunday. O! May you rot in hell, Minchin! Slowly.
What will happen in the Senate is anyone's guess and won't be clear for some weeks. It is not impossible that we will have three essentially conservative independents delivering a majority of one to Abbott in the Senate, (with either Katter's Party or Palmer's Party picking up a Senator in Queensland at least), so he will be able to repeal the carbon tax over the head of Labor and the Greens whatever happens elsewhere. Much celebration will be had on the right of politics. That is by no means certain, however.
If that's the case, the country will be left with an abiding problem. Climate change is not going to go away. Sans the carbon tax/price on carbon, international pressure will be brought to bear to ensure that Australia lives up to the carbon rebatement schemes of its trading partners. If we don't have a carbon tax, then what do we have? Especially as the Coalition's extremely expensive 'direct action' plan is widely considered unworkable and ludicrously expensive.
So. Last prediction for today? Expect to see some form of free market carbon-trading scheme introduced by an Abbott government inside the next three years. The very issue on which Turnbull was toppled.
Who'd be a politician, eh?
As for Labor, cue the most awful period of pained introspection a political party could possibly imagine. Labor has a dreadful paucity of talent, a miniscule and shrinking supporter base, is completely lost as to what differentiates it from the Liberals and Nats, and appears ever more comprehensively irrelevant. I have watched politics long enough to know that parties can and do bounce back from shocking election defeats, and sometimes surprisingly rapidly. But really: where is Labor's Messiah? Where, even, is its light on the hill? To where does it turn it's eyes, to which wheel does it place its shoulder?
Grim times indeed.
(For overseas readers who are not obsessed with Australian politics, Minchin was the eminence grise and now retired Senator who was behind the party room coup that toppled popular Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull and replaced him with hard-right Tony Abbott by a single vote. If he's on a TV panel on Saturday night I will throw a shoe at the screen or worse.)
Election 2013: Key seats to watch on September 7 (sbs.com.au)
Labor to lose four or five Qld seats: poll (sbs.com.au)
Tony Abbott poised for victory in Australia elections (theguardian.com)
Abbott set for election triumph over Rudd (smh.com.au)
Kev's popularity can get us home: Qld MPs (news.smh.com.au)
Some facts on gun control and gun buy backs. Yes, facts, for a change.
Posted: January 9, 2013 in Political musings, Popular Culture et al
Tags: Andrew Leigh, Australia, Gun control, gun violence, Howard government, New South Wales, politics, Port Arthur massacre (Australia), The facts on gun violence, United States, usa
Can we look into the gun control issue with a minimum of opinion?
I am often being asked, particularly by United States residents, if I can help to elucidate the effects of the much-discussed Howard Government's gun buy back (which removed about 650,000 weapons from Australian society, for which compensation was paid) following the Port Arthur massacre in which 35 people were killed.
It is difficult to be precise, as studies are still on-going, but in a bi-partisan spirit I post the following links for people to investigate for themselves if they so wish.
Results confused
This joint Canadian-Australia research study finds a drop in gun suicide rates of 80%. Suicide rates are often the forgotten element in the gun control discussion – a 2010 study found that the gun buyback scheme cut firearm suicides 74%, thus saving 200 lives a year. The Canadian-Australian study, by Christine Neill and Andrew Leigh also found that states such as Tasmania, which withdrew guns quickly, had a bigger decline in firearm suicides than states such as New South Wales, which withdrew more slowly. The authors found no evidence of substitution of method of suicide in any state, although other studies have argued that this has happened. The study finds other violent deaths unaffected in the main, although it believes that overall gun violence diminished.
http://andrewleigh.org/pdf/GunBuyback_Panel.pdf
Effect on massacre killings
The Wikipedia page on Gun Politics in Australia is helpfully unbiased and full of data. It shows, in effect, that the effect of the gun buy back is disputed (hardly surprising with strong opinions on both sides) but that one area where it is likely there will be agreement is that guns have almost disappeared from massacre-style killings.
Hypothetically, I would argue that this is because the nature of the weapons restricted are those that typically allow considerable damage to be done in a short space of time, as in the recent school killings in the USA. This may be helpful in considering, for example, whether the USA should ban semi-automatic weapons or large magazine weapons.
This study into an Argentine gun buy back programme notes the effects of the buy back in Australia, and particularly emphasises that any changes that have taken place as a result of it are because it was not just about removing weapons from the community but also about a wider range of restrictions, as in a similar scheme in Brazil, and also a concomitant cultural change, brought about by a generalised revulsion at the Port Arthur massacre. Interestingly, though, despite not finding much impact on the overall problem of gun violence, this study finds a significant reduction in deaths from gun accidents in the Argentine.
Gun suicide and gun accidents
The effect on the reduction in gun suicide and accidental gun deaths in the USA needs to be considered as a part of any overall gun control discussion there.
23,237 accidental non-fatal gunshot injuries in the United States occurred during 2000. Annually, about 600 people are accidentally killed. You either consider this a lot, thinking about 600 families losing someone, or a little, compared to the overall gun population. Or you can hold both thoughts simultaneously, as I do.
Just over half of all gun-related deaths in the United States are suicides, and firearms remain the most common method of suicide, accounting for 50.7% of all suicides committed in 2006with 17,352 (55.6%) of the total 31,224 firearm-related deaths a year later in 2007 being decided to be suicide. It is worth noting that some of these suicides also occurred after one or more murders, such as in a family murder-suicide situation. In this respect, there would seem to be some advantage to reducing the number of households in a society with firearms.
National may work, local doesn't
My reading seems to imply that the success or otherwise, in any sphere, of a gun buy back programme is critically determined by whether or not the activity is national, rather than state based or city based. This seems to be because if one can simply travel across a border to buy a weapon or type of weapon that is restricted in a particular community then the effect of the buy back is reduced or negated. Also, small-scale gun buy backs (such as a city within the United States) do not have a large enough impact on the overall gun population to make a serious statistical impact.
The role of guns in death and injury in the USA would seem urgent, and not just because of the recent sad mass murders. As this graphic and article from Bloomberg reveals, gun deaths will out-number traffic deaths within a couple of years. As we work to make driving a car safer and safer in so many ways, it surely makes sense to make the same effort for weapon ownership.
Julie Mack: Gun-control debate could use more facts, less emotion (mlive.com)
Red states: High in gun murder (wvgazette.com)
In California, Gun Sales Are Up, Gun Injuries Are Down (hispanicbusiness.com)
Harvard Study: Gun Control Is Counterproductive (dprogram.net)
Walking the Putt-Putt and other Antipodean traditions
Posted: January 8, 2013 in Popular Culture et al
Tags: antipodes, Australia, automatic pool cleaner, Boxing Day, bushfires, Christmas, Melbourne, New South Wales, painting the pool, St. Stephen's Day, summer in Australia, swimming pool, Tasmania
One of the weirdest thing about being a northern hemisphere fellow in a southern hemisphere world is obviously the fact that it's blazing hot at Christmas-time in the antipodes.
Readers who were on board this time last year will remember the article Home Thoughts From Abroad when Melbourne was visited by the thunderstorm to end all thunderstorms on Christmas Day 2011. I am pleased to report Christmas Day 2012 was much less dramatic.
Summer in the heat has its own traditions. Using the barbecue not the oven, for one. (Indeed, wandering the streets at this time of the year at any mealtime will leave most people salivating by the time they get home, as the air is perpetually heavy with the sweet smell of grilling steaks and snags – otherwise known as sausages or links, depending on where you're from.) Oyster Bloody Mary shooters are a regular in the Wellthisiswhatithink household – they're a hell of a good way to start the meal preparation time. Most people down here now choose seafood not turkey on Christmas Day itself – especially lobster, (hang the price), and, of course, the ubiquitous prawns. (Which down here are gigantic, not the shrimps you get around northern Europe.) Heading to the beach or the cricket on Boxing Day is another favourite.
(We actually prefer to call Boxing Day "St Stephen's Day" in our home, for obvious reasons.)
And not least in the traditions of the Christmas-New Year is the annual "Blimey, it's Christmas already, we really need to get the pool ready for use!"
It was particularly the case for us this year, because during the off season we had the pool re-painted, after years of it looking like a patchwork quilt of the previous three paint jobs, all of which had worn off the base concrete to some degree or other.
The ineffably beautiful Jacaranda tree, inspiration for our "new" pool.
So the pool is now unique. No, I don't mean it's nice, or new looking, or all that. On a whim, we chose a colour that the pool painter said the paint company told him had never been ordered before! It's called "Jacaranda", after the flowers of that lovely tropical tree which abounds throughout Australia at this time of year, or if you feel a little more prosaic, "Purple" would describe it just as well.
We now have the only purple pool in Melbourne. Unless you know different.
So, sure as the most common comment you hear at this time of the year is "My God when is it ever going to rain?" Dad gets despatched to the pool to get the accumulated detritus off the floor of the pool so it can be enjoyed in the warmer months. Our pool is surrounded by very beautiful trees that shed constantly (not a smart idea to plant them in the first place, but we inherited the problem) so a decent blow and it can look like there's a small field growing on the floor of the pool overnight.
The funny thing is, we have one of those automatic pool cleaners. The ones that quietly vibrate their way around your pool, vacuuming up the crap and cleaning the water at the same time. But ours is seriously old. It was given to us as a gift years ago, and has been quietly putt-putting around on and off ever since, gradually getting less and less efficient. But we can't bring ourselves to chuck it out. It's almost like a pet. We call it the Putt-Putt and nurse it back to life every summer with loving care, which this year involved actually taking it to the pool shop in desperation, whereupon Mr Putt-Putt Vet (known to the rest of the community as the man who runs the pool shop) diagnosed a near fatal hole in a critical part of the structure, which he repaired for free with something akin to cement. Thus far, Putt-Putt is well, and I am eternally grateful to his saviour. If you want to know a pool man who actually does something – anything – for free, call me.
But Putt-Putt has a problem. It's on the end of a hose which doesn't reach easily to the shallow end of the pool. In addition, the pool was dug many moons ago, when they didn't make structures that are peacefully sloped to the deep end that isnt so deep anyway.
In our pool, the slope down to the deep end is like the north face of the Eiger and the deep end is so deep that you could drown a brigade of cavalry in it and no one would notice. Putt-Putt simply can't make it up the hill.
Walking the Putt-Putt … a time honoured Wellthisiswhatithink Christmas tradition.
So every year, we undergo a ritual called "Dad's walking the Putt-Putt".
This involves me using the device exactly as it isn't meant to be used, in other words, carefully shepherding it around the shallow end of the pool as if it was, indeed, a gentle old dog needing a bit of help finding his water bowl. Automatic it ain't.
It's all worth it in the end. There is nothing much as wonderful as reading the newspaper by a sparkling pool and plonking into it when one gets overheated. Friends come round and share quality time – once they get past worrying that we'll think they only want to see us because we've got a pool – we are quite happy to acknowledge that they want to see us AND we've got a pool ready and waiting on a 100 degree day – bonus.
One Christmas tradition in Australia is not so welcome. The fires have started up in Tasmania over the last couple of days and it is feared lives have been lost along with plenty of homes. And today there are over 100 fires burning in New South Wales with over 20 of them out of control. In Victoria, we lost 173 hundred people (with another 414 injured) in February 2009 in an event called Black Saturday. The event is still seared into the minds of the entire community. For twelve terrifying hours the fire separated me from my family, still on holiday in an area with a fire roaring towards it, as I had chosen to return from our family holiday early. My daughter's best friend was with her and my wife. At one point, her parents phoned my wife and asked for the numberplate of her car. No one needed to ask why. If they got caught in the firefront, they wanted to know how to identify that their daughter had died.
It is hard to explain the horror of the inevitability, the inexorability, the sheer uncontestability of a large grass or bush fire in Australia. Of course, we are not the only country that suffers these frightening events, but as the driest continent in the world we suffer them more often, and more severely.They are a natural part of the bush renewing itself. Essentially, humans were never meant to live here, and we do so at our peril, clinging to the land nervously, knowing full well we are not in charge.
As the world warms, the fires will come earlier, and harder, than ever before, just as they have this year. Indeed, the weather in NSW today was reported earlier as the worst fire danger day ever recorded.
As I walk the Putt-Putt around the shallow end, you can't see it, but I am praying. You can read below about Australia's "Dome of Heat".
http://m.theage.com.au/environment/weather/temperatures-off-the-charts-as-australia-turns-deep-purple-20130108-2ce33.html


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eSecurityPlanet > Security News > Sourcefire Expands IPS App Awareness
Sourcefire Expands IPS App Awareness
IPS vendor re-engineers its core product to enable more rapid application awareness updates to better protect enterprise security.
In an effort to secure its users, Sourcefire (NASDAQ: FIRE), a vendor specializing in intrusion prevention systems, this week is improving its ability to identify applications and protect enterprises from security risks.
Intrusion prevention systems (IPS) are a widely deployed network security technology intended to help prevent unauthorized access to a network. When it comes to protecting networks against applications traveling over HTTP, being able to identify application traffic is critical to helping keep enterprises secure.
With its 3D System 4.9.1 release, Sourcefire is implementing a new architecture to speed the addition of new application awareness capabilities. The improved application awareness could help to change the definition of how an IPS fits into network security.
"In 4.9.1 [Sourcefire is] adding more than a dozen new detectors for applications and HTTP services," Steve Piper, senior director of products at Sourcefire, told InternetNews.com. "We are also providing new infrastructure so we can enable new RNA [real-time network awareness] detectors on a more frequent basis than on a once- or twice-a-year basis when we release product updates. So we can update the RNA library much more frequently than we could before."
Piper explained that Sourcefire has a number of different update cycles to ensure that IPS users are secured. The core open source Snort rule updates come in what he referred to as security enhancement updates (SEU), which may also contain Snort engine enhancements.
Then on a monthly basis, Sourcefire provides its users with vulnerability database updates (VDB) for impact assessment of security risks.
Now thanks to the new infrastructure in Sourcefire 3D 4.9.1, the firm plans to provide new RNA detectors on a monthly basis. Previously Sourcefire only provided new detectors when it had major and minor version number product updates. The last major Sourcefire 3D update was the 4.9.0 update, which was released in June 2009.
The core Sourcefire IPS solution is built on top of the open source Snort IPS project, which Sourcefire helps to lead. The RNA component of Sourcefire, however, is not open source.
Piper explained that the RNA detectors provide a fingerprint for an operating system and applications.
"We're looking into the payload of the packets, which is where we can detect applications like Gmail and MySpace," he said. "The benefit of that is if there was a vulnerability related to Gmail or some security issue than you could select IPS rules that are related."
He added that having application awareness on the IPS can be used to set up network compliance rules, so a network administrator could be alerted if an end point or users falls out of compliance with an enterprise's usage policies.
As for the future of Sourcefire 3D, the roadmap is currently under consideration.
"Whether the next version is 4.10 or 5.0, we're working that out now and finalizing the list of capabilities that will be in that release," Piper said.
10 Top Unified Threat Management Vendors
NETWORK SECURITY | By Drew Robb, July 23, 2018


Sergei Parajanov actually directed only a portion of the 1962 film The Flower on the Stone. Anatoly Slesarenko, began shooting the film under a different title, but the lead actress Inna Burduchenko-Kiriliuk (who played the character Christina) was killed in August 1960 while shooting a scene involving a burning building. Slesarenko went to prison and the project was shelved. When the Dovzhenko Film Studio decided to finish the film, Parajanov agreed to take on the challenge, shooting new footage and editing everything together into a "coherent" story.
Screen captures 1-10 are definitely Burduchenko. The remaining six images may be a different actress (or actresses) doubling as Burduchenko, but I am not 100% certain. One area where I see possible differences is in the shape and spacing of the eyebrows. Burduchenko also has a pronounced pout in her lower lip and very full cheeks.
This entry was posted in Film, Parajanov. Bookmark the permalink.
So nice to stumble on your blog! Nice space, nice work.
I'd like to subscribe. I'll put your blog on my blogroll.
Thanks, Taline! I found your blog and have put it on my blogroll as well. I see that you've reposted a piece on pomegranates of all things!