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The Power of Goals.
Game State and Blocked Shots.
I've written a fair bit about game state and how it impacts on how a side approaches a match s the time elapses and occasionally the score line changes.
I don't use score differential to define "game state", instead I use a measure of how well each team is fairing based of their pre game expectation.
This can be defined as the expected points based on the current score and time elapsed or the expected success rate of a team, again when measured against a pre kick off baseline. The choice is entirely up to you.
The advantage of this approach is primarily when the game is tied (which it is for a fairly significant portion of most matches). Instead of counting offensive production for both sides at this score differential, there's usually a clear indication of which of the two teams is happier with the stalemate and which is not.
You also get a gradual movement of game state that incorporates the often omitted variable of time elapsed.
It's intuitive as to what might happen as game state ebbs and flows over the course of a match, as unhappy teams perhaps become more risk taking in order to change the current status quo, while pregame underdogs are forced or chose to attempt to bank their above expectation gains by becoming more defensive.
One slight problem with this approach is that it assumes a relatively balanced competitive edge between competing teams and further assumes that those needing to change the current scoreline are capable of attempting to do so.
Not to be harsh, but it's difficult to envisage a situation where Manchester City felt the need to protect a lead against say Newcastle or where Newcastle were technically able to up their attacking intent against the champions.
So often the presence of clearly superior teams can skew conclusions. "Possession leads to wins" arose largely because better sides also had high levels of possession, but the possession was a byproduct of other things they did, rather than the primary driver of their results.
Remove Barca etc from the data and the relationship between possession and wins tended to disappear.
Therefore, firstly here's why "zero goal differential" (the game is level) shouldn't be regarded as a single game state.
Here's a sample of matches from the 2018/19 Premier League, involving games where one of the Big 6 wasn't playing. Thus the games weren't particularly one-sided from the outset.
Initially, I've simply counted the shot volume from regular play for teams when the score differential is zero (the game is level). The vertical axis records my version of changing game state, a larger negative value indicates that a team that is doing badly compared to the expectation at kickoff.
Typically, this may be when a home favourite is level a fair way into the game and a points expectation that may have been 1.75 expected points at 3 o'clock has fallen back towards one point as the clock ticks on towards 5.
Those above the blue score differential line of zero are doing better that they hoped for, they might have expected to average less than a point from such a game, but they are edging closer and closer to a point, with a possibility of nicking all three.
Each point represents a goal attempt and it's clear that the lions share are being taking by the disgruntled favs.
If we re-examine our intuition, it's likely that if the beneficiaries of the stalemate aren't taking that many shots in the match, they're doing things to prevent the ones at the other end going in.
Learning from the likes of Pulis and Dyche that will likely include blocking shots.
Next I built a simple xG model (just location & type), but also included the game state factor, not just at zero goal differential, but at all score differentials to see if it told anything about the likelihood a shot would be blocked or not.
I eliminated games where a red card had been shown, for obvious reasons.
The bottom line was that game state was a significant factor in correlating with whether an attempt was blocked or not, along with location and shot type. And the larger the decrease in a side's pre-match expectation when the attempt was taken, the more likely it became that the shot was blocked.
In short, without the superstar teams, run of the mill games appear to follow the "hold what we have" and "this is disappointing, let's crack on" mentality.
This is one route to improve the much criticised problem of single xG races, where one team scores early and then drops anchor, but whether it is a universal improvement to a predictive model is a question of over fitting the past and potentially screwing up the future.
Posted by Mark Taylor at 11:20 0 comments
Rugby World Cup Simulation
World Cup's have been like London buses this year and the rugby union version kicks off in a week or so.
It's live and complete on terrestrial TV in the UK, with plenty of huge mismatches in the opening group games, before eight teams, (whom could be fairly accurately predicted beforehand) hold the really interesting knockout run to the Webb Ellis Trophy on November 2nd.
However, that's not to say that the group matches don't hold any intrigue. There are at least two tier one teams in each of the four groups and while they'll be expected to steamroller the lower grade group opponents, the outcomes of these elite matchup will have a huge bearing on how the pairings for the knockout phase pans out.
Therefore, if you want to chart the likelihood of a team's route to the final being paved with Southern hemisphere behemoths, a tournament simulation is the easiest method out there.
You'll need a ratings system to kickoff with, assuming you're shunning the merry-go-round that has been the world rankings. Ireland are the current leaders, having recently displaced Wales, who had just displaced New Zealand, who themselves had displaced South Africa....ten years ago.
So the world rankings, following a decade of stagnation have suddenly become volatile.
Let's make our own, instead.
I took the last 20 matches for all participants, and produced an attacking and defensive rating, based around match scores and opponent quality.
New Zealand are the tournament's most potent attack, they'll score around 14 more points against and average team than another average team would manage and Wales, courtesy of rugby league knowhow, has the best defence.
Next you need a way to simulate game outcomes.
The big clash of the group stages sees favourites New Zealand take on South Africa. After matching up the respective attacking and defensive ratings for each team, the model expects the All Blacks to average around 28.5 points and S Africa 23.5.
New Zealand are favoured by five points and there's likely to be 52 total points.
If we look at the spread of points scored and allowed by each side over the last year or so, we can produce a distribution of points that describes each team's likely scoring pattern in this game. We'll then draw a value randomly from this distribution for each team to simulate a single match scoreline and then repeat the process thousands of times.
After adding a few tweaks to mimic the largely redundant bonus points system rugby insists on employing and ensuring that each drawn score from the distributions is a "rugby score" (no scoring a grand total of four points etc), we just repeat for every group game, add up the total points won in the group, follow the draw format and find the winner.
This is how the simulations shake out.
Four sides with a double figure percentage chance of lifting the trophy, New Zealand, S Africa for the south and England and Wales for the north, with the former looking a vulnerable favourite.
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The Walking Dead: 'Friday Night with The Morgans' Premiers This Friday
AMC announced on Friday a new weekly series starring The Walking Dead's Jeffrey Dean Morgan and his wife, actor Hilarie Burton Morgan. The series will be a talk show and is filmed at their farm in upstate New York.
The half-hour show will feature the couple connecting with their celebrity friends over video streams, talking about various aspects of their current lives. The series will be focusing on mostly positive stories in an effort to find happiness in our present situation.
"We have been a part of the AMC family for a long time and are honored to create this comforting space with them," said Morgan and Burton Morgan. "From our home here at Mischief Farm, we look forward to shining a light on those who are doing good in the world, catching up with old friends and connecting with the awesome fan base we've gotten to know over the years."
Guests set for Friday Night In With the Morgans include Morgan's Walking Dead co-star Christian Serratos, who plays Rosita, and former Walking Dead star Sarah Wayne Callies, who played Lori Grimes.
"This really will be an experiment – it's the antidote to the overly rehearsed, overly manicured glimpse into somebody's perfect life – it will be full of heart, messy conversation, hardworking humans who are on the frontlines, and guests who might reveal some previously unknown talents," said AMC Networks president Sarah Barnett. "Ultimately, it's a shot at some raw and real entertainment that will uplift and connect with our audiences."
Friday Night In With the Morgans premieres this Friday, April 17, at 10 p.m. on AMC.
Chris Pendleton
This is post P-90x. I'm saying I watched the videos. I'm not saying I participated. Born in my mom's basement, I've stayed there to embody the stereotype. One day I will rise up… to the main floor of the house.
Monday Ink: Dr. Woo, There's No One Else…
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Photo by Noah Jackson
Blue Head Land and Cattle LLC Fall, 2016
Holistic Management on Mars?
On Cowboys and Capital, Long Term Horizons, and the New Native
Times are Tough—Let's talk about it
Building our Ecosystem
A Brief History of Grasslands LLC
A "Must Read" Recommendation
Jim's Journeys
What Are We Really All About, Anyway?
By Jim Howell
Grasslands LLC is a for profit ranch/farm management company. Our company was originally a part of the Savory Institute, founded in 2009 by myself and my wife, Daniela, Tony Malmberg, Allan Savory, Jody Butterfield, Shannon Horst, and Zach Jones. Soon after our inception, we realized that we (the owners and founders of SI) wanted to pursue multiple enterprises, some of which were more potentially profitable than others. We eventually elected to create a non-profit arm of our project, which became SavoryInstitute.org, and this is where all of the activity tied to the SI Network/Hub project, consulting and training endeavors, removing market and policy barriers, etc. lies. Daniela currently leads SI.org.
We simultaneously created Grasslands LLC (in early 2010) to exclusively focus on the acquisition and management of grassland assets. Zach and I were given that job. We elected to partner with two impact investors, John Fullerton and Larry Lunt, who appeared just exactly when we needed them. They agreed to both provide operating capital in the Grasslands start-up phase, as well as invest in our first ranches.
Our original "pitch" to John and Larry centered on a land investment model based in New Zealand. I had been working in Southland, NZ with a large consulting client in 2008-09, where we were engaged in the conversion of a substantial sheep, beef, and deer property into a "dairy support" property. Dairy support refers to the contract grazing of young dairy heifers (from weaning at just 100 kg live weight, to 23 months, bred and ready to calve and begin milking), as well as wintering dry dairy cows. Most Kiwi dairy farmers elect to contract out this growing phase of their replacements, and wintering of their dry stock, preferring to focus on the business of actually milking cows. I realized there was significant potential in finding run down sheep and beef farms (with the potential to be dairy support properties), buying them at sheep and beef prices, and then converting them to dairy support grazing. We anticipated that the resulting return on investment (ROI) would be attractive to potential investors.
In that original pitch, we also included a South Dakota ranch investment alternative. I had located (on the internet) a handful of (what seemed to be) very undervalued ranches in western South Dakota—Butte County, to be exact. In December of 2009, Zach and I made a trip out to inspect these places. We actually were a little giddy when we realized how productive that country was, how flat it was and easy to manage it would be, how much water it had, and how cheap it was, on a stock unit basis, relative to any other ranchland we were aware of in North America.
That first pitch, both the NZ and SD propositions, intrigued both John and Larry, but they didn't know us yet and were reluctant to dive into a foreign country. But, they were comfortable with getting started in South Dakota, and Grasslands was off to the races.
Amazingly, we managed to actually get those first two ranches (which are now our BR and Horse Creek properties) purchased in March and April of 2010, and a few weeks later were turning out several thousand head of yearlings. We had to scramble to find the cattle. We were in a new "neck of the prairie" and nobody knew us yet. Zach did a great job of finding a handful of local large-scale ranchers still looking for grass, and negotiated the deals.
This all happened very quickly and our luck felt a little too good to be true, but reality quickly set in. Suddenly we needed to rapidly find some competent cowboys—somebody to actually get the work done. Our first call was to Brandon Dalton—not to try to hire Brandon, but to inquire about a former goat herder of Brandon's who we knew had a good reputation, and who we suspected was looking for a job. We didn't expect Brandon's reaction—he said he actually might want that job. We said great, meet us out there next week. We came to terms with Brandon, he moved his in-law's travel trailer out to Horse Creek, and we were suddenly ranching in the Northern Great Plains.
Brandon & Zach, getting to know Horse Creek, April 2010
Our very first Grasslands-grazed cattle being turned out on Horse Creek, May 5, 2010
We had a solid first year on the BR and Horse Creek (14,200 acres total, and collectively owned within an entity we named Belle Fourche Land and Livestock, LLC—BFLL for short), and John and Larry were keen to expand. We did so in Feb. of 2011, when we closed on the Cinch Buckle Ranch (also with Larry and John as investors), near Broadus, Montana—39,000 acres of beautiful and diverse short grass prairie.
Of course, now we needed another solid crew. Brandon told us Ron Goddard and family were at the point of considering a transition into a new ranching situation, and we came along at the opportune moment (Brandon had previously wintered goats on the ranch Ron used to manage). Ron and Kathleen cowboyed in the early 1980s on the Mountain Island Ranch in western Colorado, under the leadership of Miles Keogh, one of the first holistic management educators in the US. So, Ron and Kathleen cut their teeth in large landscape planned grazing with one of the best. Daniela and I also worked with Miles in the mid-90s at the High Lonesome Ranch in southwestern New Mexico, so our common connection back to Miles was a good start. Zach and I met Ron at a coffee shop in Billings, MT, on the morning of the day we were scheduled to close the Cinch Buckle deal, and made him an offer. That night Ron called us and said, "If your deal didn't fall apart today, I guess we're in." They've been in ever since, and now they're in deep, big time, up to their armpits in scrub cattle and alligators in the swamps of southern Florida (more on that below).
That first year, we took over the management of the cattle belonging to the Cinch Buckle seller, Tom Pezarrossi (he elected not to sell his cattle), and added 900 yearling replacement heifers from Jim Bode Scott of the S Ranch—great, long time friends of the Goddards. We've since evolved a solid relationship with the Padlock Ranch, based outside of Sheridan, WY, and custom graze both cow/calf pairs on a year round basis, and seasonal yearling replacement heifers from late summer through early winter on the Cinch Buckle. BFLL remains a summer grazing operation, focusing on "grass yearlings" from May through Aug./Sept./Oct. (depending on the year), in addition to a few hundred pairs that we graze into the fall. The BFLL managers have included Brandon (2010-12), Mae Rose Petrehn (2013), Sam Fyler (2014), and Buck Highberger (2015). Nolan and Eva Reil now manage the Cinch Buckle, with strong support from Timber and Cassie Holmquist.
Moving Padlock heifers on the Cinch Buckle, July 31st, 2013
We've had multiple ups and downs on both BFLL and Cinch Buckle to date, but overall are on a positive triple bottom line trend. The downs included the 2012 drought (which especially impacted BFLL, both in 2012 and 2013), toxic water issues on all ranches (but especially Cinch Buckle), maladapted Texan cattle on the Cinch Buckle one winter, Crow Creek (aka Cow Eating Creek) on the Cinch Buckle, hailstorms, etc. But, we've learned from all that, adjusted accordingly, and we're essentially performing close to our original projections, and the BR, Horse Creek, and Cinch Buckle have proven themselves as great ranches.
We continued our northern plains expansion in early 2012 with the acquisition of the 53,000 acre Antelope Springs Ranch, near Cohagen, MT—once again with Larry and John. We leased the ranch back to the seller, Terry Todd, over that first growing season, and took over day-to-day management in Nov. of 2012, when Brandon and Brandy (and boys) made the move from their wind-pummeled, gumbo-laden campsite to the relatively luxurious and spacious digs of our new Antelope Springs headquarters house. We also made them the new AS managers, and added Ryan and Bethany White and family soon thereafter, along with stints by Tyler Westhoff, Mae Rose, and Brent Nixon. Our first year of actually managing the ranch, 2013, ended up wet and grassy. That fall we brought on Trevor and Amber Smith and family, who moved into the Brooks place as assistant managers.
Brandon, Ryan, and Brent, near the Brooks Place on Ant. Springs, July 30th, 2013
That winter started early and stayed cold. We had a lot of young cows on AS (mostly owned by the Donald Family's Cayuse Cattle Company, based near Melville, MT) that were naïve to the vegetation, wind, topography, extreme cold, and murky water of eastern MT, and they were set back that winter. Even though they largely healed up by early summer, and even though we had another decent grass year, we had a bad breed up on those cows in the fall of 2014, and we've been trying to make sense of it since. In addition to a year round herd of cows, we've been bringing on big numbers of grass yearlings from May to Sept., also custom grazed for Cayuse.
The growing season of 2015 also proved to be challenging. AS ended up being in the middle of a fairly isolated droughty patch of Montana, and we estimate that we only grew 50% of the forage produced in 2014. The AS crew had to undertake some significant re-planning. With the guidance of Tony Malmberg (founder and board member of Grasslands, and as of the fall of 2014, also the NGP Senior Regional Manager) and execution oversight of Trevor, our adjustments worked. Performance on yearlings was very good at 1.6 lb. daily gain, and breed up on the cow herd was back up in the low 90s, so we pulled through in good shape, all things considered. We started to supplement with protein much earlier (in the winter of 2014-15) than the previous year, making sure those cows didn't drop off appreciably in condition. That seemed to be the difference, given the very solid performance over the following (and even though much sparser) growing season.
In the fall of 2014, Brandon and Brandy made the move to their new post in NZ (keep reading), and Trevor and Amber were promoted to the leadership role at AS. They've done a great job. Kelly and Sherry Brink came on at this time also, rounding out the AS crew. Despite the challenges posed by this tough patch of Montana, we nonetheless love this ranch and are excited by the prospect of figuring it out and making it work.
While all this Northern Great Plains work was going on, we were also in the process of trying to expand our portfolio of managed properties in New Zealand. Beginning in the fall of 2011, when we were having a tough time finding investable opportunities in the northern plains, I started to beat the bushes in New Zealand again. My efforts led me to Lees Valley Station, in the province of Canterbury on the South Island.
Lees Valley takes in close to 70,000 acres of flats, hills, mountains, rivers, and forests, encompassing nearly the entire catchment basin of the Ashley River and associated tributaries. The first time I drove into the valley, I knew we somehow had to figure out how to bring this place on board as a Grasslands project. It took us two years, but eventually we got it done—this time with Thomas Peterffy as our investor. We "settled" (closed) in early Sept. of 2013. Zach and his girls moved to the southern hemisphere to lead this project, initially for one year, but looks like their stint will stretch out to at least 3 years. They're still there anyway, in Nov. of 2015.
Lees Valley Station is one of the world's most diverse grazing operations. We are carrying close to 16,000 sheep, a thousand mother beef cows plus yearlings (replacement heifers and steers), nearly 800 European red deer, and several thousand dairy heifers and dairy bulls, both calves and yearlings. We graze the dairy cattle on contract for their dairy farming owners. This "dairy support" enterprise is the original business idea that kicked off Grasslands, and we are now engaged in this activity in a big way at Lees Valley. We're currently heading into our third growing season, and unfortunately, both last year and this year have experienced very dry springs/summers (the growing season of 2014-15 being the driest in 60 years), but we've kept our heads above water and are operating solidly in the black, as we are on all ranches.
Mike Jones (along with wife, Pip) is now our station manager at Lees Valley. As a longtime Kiwi high country farmer, Mike brings years of credibility to our team. Brandon is our lead grazing planning coordinator (we call him the "herbivorist"), orchestrating the planning and oversight of movements of thousands and thousands of livestock, on one of the world's most topographically diverse grazing properties. Rebecca Cresswell is our NZ "Senior Operations Manager", handling all legal and administrative matters that keep the wheels turning. She is incredible. Other key personnel at Lees Valley include Rapha Meier, Ross Saunders, Brian Thompson, Grant and Barb Plaisted, Ian Doody, Deb Hopewell, and Daniel Rossiter.
Yearling dairy heifers at Lees Valley Station, Nov. 2013
In May of 2015, we added another South Island property—Gleneyre, a 900-acre mostly irrigated farm just over the mountain from Lees Valley, on the Canterbury Plain. We are using Gleneyre as a complementary property to Lees Valley Station, where we can fatten lambs and beef cattle, start dairy heifer and bull calves, winter dry dairy cows, etc.
Coming 2-year old beef heifers being fattened on Gleneyre, Oct. 2015
In January 2014, we took on a contract to manage the livestock operations of the Hana Ranch, a 4300-acre cattle ranch on the eastern tip of Maui. The Denver-based firm, Biological Capital, negotiated the Hana Ranch purchase. We served on the due diligence team, and then subcontracted with BLC to take on the management of the cow herd once the deal closed.
This has been a great opportunity to expand our grazing management skills in one of the world's most unique ranching settings. We've carried both a 1000-head herd of mother cows, and depending on the time of year, a 300-600 head herd of young growing and finishing stock. Most of the ranch's progeny has been marketed as grass finished beef through Maui Cattle Company, a locally owned cooperative. Tyler and Leilani Westhoff have stewarded this project, which is winding up as we come to the end of 2015, when BLC will take over the management of the cattle operations. It was great while it lasted and we'll miss the incredible landscape, and unbelievable forage base, of the Hana Ranch. This is one of the few places in the world where it's possible to actually see the grass growing, from one day to the next, year round.
The "young herd" at Hana, just after moving onto fresh grass, waves crashing in the background
And finally, the Grasslands journey has led us to the Florida peninsula, where we're now immersed in the bahia grass, palmettos, and wetlands of one of America's most beef cattle-dense regions. We closed on the Blue Head (31,300 acres between the towns of Arcadia and Lake Placid), also with Peterffy, in November of 2014, but the existing lessee's terms gave him till August of 2015 to wind up his affairs and vacate the property.
This is a huge operation, with the capacity to eventually run close to 8,000 year round cows, so we needed a seasoned, highly competent manager who we knew was up to the task. Zach and I figured the Goddard clan might be keen to take it on, but also weren't sure they could tear themselves away from their beloved Montana. It took some deep thinking and soul searching, but eventually Ron, along with Kathleen and sons Jason (and wife Tiffany and kids) and Jake, decided that they'd give Florida ranching a go.
They moved on-site in July of 2015 and spent a couple months acquiring equipment, meeting neighbors, visiting other ranchers, and acclimating to the heat and humidity. Their investigations led to the conclusion that the massive brahman-influenced cows of southern FL are not the ideal match for this environment. Instead, they developed an appreciation for Cracker cattle—descendants of the original bovines brought to the New World by the Spanish in the early 1500s. These cattle went feral and eventually became naturalized across northern Mexico and the southern edge of the US. After 400 years of natural selection, they became supremely adapted to the heat, humidity, parasites, and forage base of their new North American home.
The problem is that there aren't many FL Cracker cattle left, but there are still many of their Texas cousins—both the diminutive Corriente, and the slightly larger Longhorn (locally lumped together and referred to as "scrub" cattle). Along with a handful of buyers, Ron was able to put together our first 4000 head over the course of the past couple months, which brings us to the present day. As we move into 2016, we plan to continue adding to our scrub herd, potentially building to 8000 cows.
These cattle are small (800-1000 lb.), tough, frequently produce a calf till they're 20, prefer to graze/browse on native grasses and brush (of which we have copious quantities at Blue Head), are resistant to internal and external parasites, and are docile and handle well. On the Blue Head, they are currently in one giant herd. It just might be the largest herd in the US, and very likely the largest herd in the world being managed according to a holistic grazing plan.
We're excited about what the future holds at Blue Head, which is not only a fantastic grazing resource, but also a wildlife-dense gem of nature. Hundreds of bird species, including Osceola turkeys, along with FL whitetails, wild hogs, and countless alligators make their home on Blue Head. It also supports extensive habitat for some of Florida's threatened and endangered species, including the gopher tortoise, indigo snake, scrub jay, and grasshopper sparrow. We operate an extensive hunting lease enterprise at Blue Head also, which is led by Florida native Rowdy Sullivan—a wealth of knowledge on all things Floridian.
Last but certainly not least, we've developed an office of super-humans in Bozeman, Montana, where Jen Tanner, Mark Blackford, and Trace Klein run a tight, hyper-efficient administrative hub. They keep the money flowing, create all the monthly financial reports for our North American operations, and attend to any number of details, from insurance claims to internet queries to map making to party-organizing. They have become the indispensable beating heart of Grasslands.
PO Box 1368, Bozeman MT 59771
info@grasslands-llc.com
Lees Valley Station:
themuster@grasslands-llc.com
Lees Valley Access Requests:
leesvalleystation@gmail.com


Jose Mourinho cut a frustrated figure following Manchester United's 4-1 International Champions Cup loss to Liverpool on Saturday.
Alvaro Morata has the confidence of Chelsea boss Maurizio Sarri after an improved ICC display against Inter.
Leicester City cannot afford to give up Harry Maguire and Kasper Schmeichel before the new season, according to manager Claude Puel.
Arsenal crushed Paris Saint-Germain 5-1 on Saturday, but Thomas Tuchel was not expecting much better after seeing the Gunners' team.
Mesut Ozil is one of a number of players who could captain Arsenal, according to the club's new head coach Unai Emery.
Pep Guardiola's successful stint in the Bundesliga earned him an unabashed fan in Bayern Munich head coach Niko Kovac.
Family issues ensured last term was hard for David Silva, but Pep Guardiola did his best to make things as simple as possible for him.
West Ham sporting director Mario Husillos is confident Javier Hernandez will start next season at the London Stadium.


Sri Lanka's inflation, as measured by the change in the Colombo Consumers' Price Index, rose to 2.1 percent in December 2014 from 1.5 percent in the previous month on a year-on-year basis.
Annual average inflation, which declined since June 2013, declined further to 3.3 percent in December 2014, from 3.5 percent in previous month.
The absolute CCPI computed by the Department of Census and Statistics marginally increased from 179.2 in November to 180.2 in December.


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Home > SKMC > Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine > Faculty papers Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine > 21
Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine Faculty Papers
Association of antinuclear antibody seropositivity with inhaled environmental exposures in patients with interstitial lung disease
K. Biblowitz, Thomas Jefferson UniversityFollow
Cathryn Lee, University of Chicago
Daisy Zhu, University of Virginia
Imre Noth, University of Virginia
Rekha Vij, University of Chicago
Mary E Strek, University of Chicago
Shashi K Bellam, NorthShore University HealthSystem
Ayodeji Adegunsoye, University of Chicago
This article is the author's final published version in ERJ Open Research, Volume 7, Issue 4, November 2021, Article number 00254-2021.
The published version is available at https://doi.org/10.1183/23120541.00254-2021. Copyright © Biblowitz et al.
Background: Interstitial lung diseases (ILDs) are diffuse parenchymal lung disorders that cause substantial morbidity and mortality. In patients with ILD, elevated antinuclear antibody (ANA) titres may be a sign of an autoimmune process. Inhalational exposures contribute to ILD pathogenesis and affect prognosis and may trigger autoimmune disease. The association of inhalational exposures with ANA seropositivity in ILD patients is unknown.
Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of adult ILD patients from five centres in the United States. Exposures to tobacco, inhaled organic antigens and inhaled inorganic particles were extracted from medical records. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to analyse the effects of confounders including age, ILD diagnosis, gender and exposure type on ANA seropositivity.
Results: Among 1265 patients with ILD, there were more ANA-seropositive (58.6%, n=741) than ANA-seronegative patients (41.4%, n=524). ANA-seropositive patients had lower total lung capacity (69% versus 75%, p<0.001) and forced vital capacity (64% versus 70%, p<0.001) than patients who were ANA-seronegative. Among patients with tobacco exposure, 61.4% (n=449) were ANA-positive compared to 54.7% (n=292) of those without tobacco exposure. In multivariable analysis, tobacco exposure remained independently associated with increased ANA seropositivity (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.12-1.71). This significant difference was similarly demonstrated among patients with and without a history of inorganic exposures (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.12-2.07).
Conclusion: Patients with ILD and inhalational exposure had significantly higher prevalence of ANA-seropositivity than those without reported exposures across ILD diagnoses. Environmental and occupational exposures should be systematically reviewed in patients with ILD, particularly those with ANA-seropositivity.
Biblowitz, K.; Lee, Cathryn; Zhu, Daisy; Noth, Imre; Vij, Rekha; Strek, Mary E; Bellam, Shashi K; and Adegunsoye, Ayodeji, "Association of antinuclear antibody seropositivity with inhaled environmental exposures in patients with interstitial lung disease" (2021). Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine Faculty Papers. Paper 21.
https://jdc.jefferson.edu/pulmcritcarefp/21
Critical Care Commons, Pulmonology Commons


With St. Patrick's Day coming up this weekend we thought we would give you a solid dose of green. Green as a decorating palette and green as an initiative. While we are on the subject of initiatives we want to take a moment to tell you a little about how Oskar Huber contributes to the preservation of our environment.
Oskar Huber cares deeply about protecting our environment. We align with craftsmen and companies that are members of organizations dedicated to earth-friendly practices. These organizations include the Forest Stewardship Council, Sustainable Forestry Initiative, and the Sustainable Furnishings Council. As such, our stores can offer you 'green' products like soy-based, flame retardant-free cushions; recycled fiber filling for pillows; furniture with recycled metal components and very low VOC finishes. We further reduce our showrooms' carbon footprint by using energy-saving LED lighting as well as carpeting and countertops made from recycled and renewable materials. We also recycle the cardboard your order is shipped inside of.
Pillows are an excellent way to brighten up a room. Add them to your neutral tone sofa or chair and watch the dynamic of the room change right before your eyes! You can also change the feel of the room seasonally by changing the pillows.
And just like pillows, accessories are a great way to add some green to your room palette. Versatility is the word when discussing vases. Try them with your favorite flowers or empty – Both options look great! Vases really work in groupings as well. Place a few different sizes together to add interest to your bookshelf, counter or coffee table.
Finally, don't be afraid to go big and bold with the color. Bringing an accent chair into your living space will liven it up and give it a fresh new look! Again, pairing these bright bold colors as an accent to neutral tones in a room is an excellent way to get ready for the Spring season. Stop in and see for yourself – we're pretty sure you'll be inspired!


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WisdomTree US Multifactor UCITS ETF - USD Acc
ETFS Physical Gold ETFS Physical Swiss Gold ETFS EUR Daily Hedged Physical Gold ETFS GBP Daily Hedged Physical Gold
THE WisdomTree BLOG
Nitesh Shah / Geopolitical Risks, US, Emerging Markets, Commodities 08 Jul 2019
40 Years of fraught US-Iran tension in the Persian Gulf plays on
Nitesh Shah
With Iran backed into a corner, increased tension between the regime and the White House has resurrected talk of a closing of the Strait of Hormuz -- the critical waterway by which the bulk of Middle Eastern oil must travel.
Aneeka Gupta / Technological evolution, Commodities, US 03 Jul 2019
Platinum's turn to shine in 2019
Aneeka Gupta
The platinum market is expected to be in a supply deficit this year after two consecutive years of surplus; combined with a more optimistic demand outlook we expect platinum prices to recover this year in comparison to palladium.
Nitesh Shah / Gold, Commodities, Central Bank Policy impact, Geopolitical Risks 26 Jun 2019
Gold above US$1400, where next?
Gold has blasted through a key technical threshold at US$1400/oz, after breaching a stubborn resistance level of US$1350/oz last week. Gold's rise has been aided by falling US Treasury yields, a depreciating US dollar and improving sentiment and flows. Risks are tipped to the upside, especially if geopolitical concerns remain as elevated as they are at present amid trade wars, currency wars and risk of military confrontation the Middle East. WisdomTree believes the metal is poised to rise further by Q2 2020. Find out more in our latest outlook.
Aneeka Gupta / Commodities, Europe / Eurozone, Geopolitical Risks 25 Jun 2019
EU elections: Challenging the status quo
The fight against climate change and the opposition to mass migration were the two dominant themes at the EU parliamentary elections. They broadly revealed that populist parties appeal had limits. The case for Europe has become even stronger amidst this heightened geopolitical low yielding environment.
Christopher Gannatti / Geopolitical Risks, Commodities 03 Jun 2019
Using Broad Commodities strategies in portfolio allocations
Christopher Gannatti
In this article, we explore the potential benefits of considering a broad, diversified commodity investment within an asset allocation.
Christopher Gannatti / Central Bank Policy impact, Geopolitical Risks, Commodities 21 May 2019
Late in the economic cycle? Look at Commodities!
WisdomTree makes the case for broad-based commodity strategies at points late in a given economic cycle. Here, we look at historical cycle behaviour as well as historic US Federal Reserve Policy behaviour to define the current opportunity in this asset class.
Nitesh Shah / Commodities, Gold 08 May 2019
Gold: WisdomTree's price forecasts to Q1 2020
Since the beginning of 2019 much has changed in terms of the outlook for gold. In this article, we'll take a fresh look at gold and provide investors with our gold price forecast to Q1 2020.
Aneeka Gupta / Commodities, Geopolitical Risks, US 03 May 2019
Hogging the limelight
The world's deadliest virus – African swine fever has taken root in the world's biggest producer and consumer of pork and is decimating China's hog population. As such, the US has become the greatest beneficiary of the extreme pork shortage in China.
Nitesh Shah / Commodities, Gold 15 Apr 2019
Gold: how we value the precious metal
Gold is a unique asset class. Even though it has been viewed as a form of investment for several millennia, there's little consensus on how to actually value it. In this article, we'll look at how we value gold at WisdomTree and explain how we use historic price behaviour to generate gold price forecasts for the future.
Aneeka Gupta / Technological evolution, Commodities 08 Apr 2019
Electric Vehicles are ICEing traditional cars
The auto industry is undergoing a radical transformation. The change is being driven by stringent global vehicle emission regulations coupled with rapid technological advancement. While global sales of traditional vehicles powered by the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) are slowing, Electric Vehicle (EV) sales are rising.
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Christopher Gannatti began at WisdomTree as a Research Analyst in December 2010, working directly with Jeremy Schwartz, CFA®, Director of Research. He is involved in creating and communicating WisdomTree's thoughts on the markets, as well as analysing existing strategies and developing new approaches. Christopher came to WisdomTree from Lord Abbett, where he worked for four and a half years as a Regional Consultant. He received his MBA in Quantitative Finance, Accounting, and Economics from NYU's Stern School of Business in 2010, and he received his bachelor's degree from Colgate University in Economics in 2006. Christopher is a holder of the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.
Lidia Treiber
Director, Research
Lidia is Director of Fixed Income Research in Europe, working to deepen WisdomTree's fixed income capabilities and ensuring that investors receive up-to-date, expert insight into global developments in this asset class.
Lidia previously spent four years as Fixed Income Specialist at Invesco ETFs. Prior to that, she was part of Wellington Management where she worked with the firm's largest institutional clients, and BlackRock where she worked as a Research Analyst and Fixed Income Product Strategist.
Lidia has a BSc in Finance from the Warrington College of Business at University of Florida, where she graduated Summa Cum Laude with highest distinction in honours. Lidia is is a holder of both the Investment Management Certificate and the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.
Nitesh is Director of Research at WisdomTree. Prior to the acquisition of ETF Securities in April 2018, Nitesh was a Commodities Strategist for the company. Nitesh has 16 years of experience as an economist and strategist, covering a wide range of markets and asset classes.
Before joining ETF Securities, Nitesh was an economist covering the European structured finance markets at Moody's Investors Service and was a member of Moody's global macroeconomics team. Before that he was an economist at the Pension Protection Fund and an equity strategist at Decision Economics.
He started his career at HSBC Investment Bank. Nitesh holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University (USA).
Associate Director of Research
Aneeka Gupta is Associate Director of Research at WisdomTree. Prior to the acquisition of ETF Securities in April 2018, Aneeka worked as an Equity & Commodities Strategist at the company. Aneeka has 13 years of experience working as a Research Analyst across a wide range of asset classes. In her current role she is responsible for conducting analysis for all in-house commodity and macro publications and assisting the sales team with client queries around products and markets.
Prior to ETF Securities, Aneeka began her career as an equity analyst at Bear Stearns International Ltd in London. She also worked as an Equity Sales Trader at Sunrise Brokers across US and Pan European Exchanges. Before that she worked as an Equity Derivatives Sales Manager at Mashreq Bank in Dubai.
Aneeka holds a Bsc in Mathematics from the University of Delhi and a Masters in Mathematics from Oxford University and is also a CFA Charterholder.
Kevin Flanagan
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Kevin Flanagan joined WisdomTree in 2016 as Senior Fixed Income Strategist. He contributes to the asset allocation team and provides expertise on WisdomTree's global fixed income content. Prior to joining WisdomTree, Kevin spent 30 years at Morgan Stanley, where he was most recently a Managing Director. He was responsible for tactical and strategic recommendations and created asset allocation models for fixed income securities. He was a contributor to the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Global Investment Committee, primary author of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's monthly and weekly fixed income publications, and collaborated with the firm's Research and Consulting Group Divisions to build ETF and fund manager asset allocation models. Kevin has an MBA from Pace University's Lubin Graduate School of Business, and a B.S in Finance from Fairfield University.
Gaurav Sinha
Asset Allocation Strategist
Gaurav Sinha has worked as Asset Allocation Strategist at WisdomTree since November 2014. He is leading the Portfolio Analytics and Solutions team and builds specialized investment solutions along with customized analytics for our clients. He is also deeply involved in advancing WisdomTree's product suite, and has particular expertise on India. Gaurav came to WisdomTree after stints at World Bank, Morgan Stanley and recently with Windhaven Investment Management. He received his Masters in Financial Engineering from Columbia University in 2009 and holds a bachelors Engineering degree from the prestigious Indian Institute Of Technology (IIT).
Nick Leung
Nick Leung is a Research Analyst for WisdomTree in Europe. He is responsible for macroeconomic commentary and analysis, formulating investment strategies and trade ideas, as well as the maintenance of research collateral. Prior to joining in 2015, Nick was at Source, having completed his Master's Degree at Imperial College London. During this time he was also involved in an ice-cream entrepreneurship project with Unilever. Nick holds a BA in Economics from the University of Nottingham.
Jason Guthrie
Director of Capital Markets
Jason Guthrie is Director of Capital Markets for WisdomTree in Europe. Guthrie is responsible for ensuring smooth trade execution across WisdomTree's UCITS ETFs and Boost ETPs throughout Europe, Israel and Latin America. Prior to joining WisdomTree, Guthrie worked at Deutsche Bank within its ETF Capital Markets group. Before Deutsche Bank, he worked at Macquarie Bank as an Investment Executive based in Sydney, Australia. Jason holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance) from Macquarie University in Sydney.
Florian Ginez
Florian Ginez is a Research Analyst for WisdomTree in Europe. He is responsible for market analysis, formulating investment and hedging strategies, trade ideas, as well as the development of products collateral and automating research processes. He also works closely with WisdomTree's Quantitative Group on data analytics. Florian joined WisdomTree in 2016 after he started his career as an Assistant Portfolio Manager at Amaïka Asset Management in Paris, researching factor investing. Florian holds a Master's degree from Reims Management School.
Jesper Koll
Senior Advisor to WisdomTree
Jesper Koll is a Senior Advisor to WisdomTree. Over the past two decades Jesper has been consistently ranked as one of the top Japan strategists/economists, working as Chief Strategist and Head of Research for major U.S. investment banks J.P. Morgan and Merrill Lynch. His analysis and insights have earned him a position on several Japanese government advisory committees and Jesper is also one of the few non-Japanese members of the Keizai Doyukai, the Japan Association of Corporate Executives. He has written two books in Japanese, Towards a New Japanese Golden Age and The End of Heisei Deflation. After arriving in Japan in 1986 Jesper initially worked as an aide to a Member of Parliament. Jesper has a Masters degree from the School of Advanced and International Studies at Johns Hopkins University and was a research fellow at both Tokyo University and Kyoto University. He is a graduate of the Lester B. Pearson College of the Pacific.
Vania Pang
Capital Markets and Investment Solutions, Index and Quantitative Investment, ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management (International) Company Limited
Ms. Pang is responsible for Capital Markets and Investment Solutions functions of the Index and Quantitative Investment department at the ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management (International) Company Limited. From 2012 to 2016, Ms. Pang was the Vice President of Corporate Strategy and Development, Asia Coal Limited, where she led the strategic mergers and acquisitions, capital raising and investor relations management. Prior to that, she was the Associate Director, Business Development of Crown One Asset Management Company Limited, responsible for sales and marketing of fund products. Between 2007 and 2008, Ms. Pang was Assistant Manager, Public Distribution Hong Kong (Equity Derivatives and Private Investor Product Sales) of RBS, handling sales and marketing of listed equity derivatives products. Before joining RBS, she was an anchor and reporter with the Cable TV and Hong Kong Economic Journal.
Ms. Pang holds a M.Sc. in Development Finance from The University of Manchester, a M.A. in Journalism and a B.A. in Business Administration from The Chinese University of Hong Kong.
Jack Jiang
Senior ETF Specialist, Index and Quantitative Investment, ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management (International) Company Limited
Mr. Jiang joined ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management (International) Company Limited as Senior ETF Specialist of Index and Quantitative Investment Department in November 2017. Before joining ICBC CS (International), Mr. Jiang was Director, Head of China in the client coverage team of S&P Dow Jones Indices, where he led the effort on sales and marketing in China. Prior to that, he was the head of the sales team of Dow Jones Newswire in China. Mr. Jiang had also worked for Platts, another subsidiary of S&P Global as Head of Beijing office. Mr. Jiang holds double degree, a Bachelor degree of Economy in International Economy and Business, and a Bachelor degree of Science in Automobile Engineering, with a minor degree in Computer Science, from Beijing Polytechnic University.
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Demographic diversity trends
Effects of currency fluctuation
Geopolitical Risks
Technological evolution
FX / Currency Hedging
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We're very excited to announce that AUT University is again showing its leadership in the sector by becoming the first University in New Zealand to sign up for the Rainbow Tick programme.
AUT has consistently been a leader in creating both a workplace and a student experience that is based on openness and inclusion, and welcoming the strengths that diversity brings.
Tertiary sector providers and Universities in general are some of the key institutions of New Zealand society, and it is important that they openly reflect and include the whole of our society.
We are delighted to be able to partner with AUT in this area of Diversity & Inclusion and look forward to working with them to attain the standard.


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Court victory for kids born in SA by foreign parents
Home SA Immigration News Court victory for kids born in SA by foreign parents
By KVN Law | SA Immigration News | Comments are Closed | 4 Apr, 2018 | 0
Article credit: news24
Johannesburg – Children born in SA to foreign parents are entitled to apply for citizenship, the Western Cape High Court ruled on Thursday, the Legal Resources Centre said.
"The LRC are pleased with the judgment which affirms the rights of our clients to be treated with dignity and not to be rendered non-citizens through the wrongful interpretation of statutes," said LRC spokesperson Claire Martens in a statement.
Martens said the ruling applied even if the children were born before the 2010 Amendment, which came into effect in 2013.
She said the applicants, represented by the LRC, were all born in SA to foreign parents before 2013 and majority of them were now over 18.
"They meet the requirements for applying for citizenship in terms of section 4(3) of the Citizenship Act, in that they were born in South Africa and have lived here since their births, and they have birth certificates attesting to their birth in South Africa," she said.
'Vulnerable to hostilities'
Martens said the department of home affairs had refused to consider their applications for citizenship.
"The LRC approached the High Court on behalf of the applicants, arguing that the refusal to consider the applications for citizenship is prejudicial to our clients in a real way, having not only practical implications but also infringing on constitutional entitlements.
"But not allowing them citizenship, the department is consigning them, unlawfully, to remain as non-citizens in the country that they have lived in since birth and is the only country they know."
Martens said the non-citizen status also rendered the applicants "vulnerable to hostilities" directed at them.
She said judgment agreed that there were constitutional entitlements at stake, including the right to dignity.
"It further states that the applicants have a statutory right to apply for citizenship and the respondents cannot limit or interfere with this right by contending that no prejudice flows."
While the court did not direct the department to provide the applicants with citizenship, Martens said it directed the department to accept the applications for citizenship from the applicants and make a decision on the applications within 10 days.
"The court also directed that the Amendment Act must be interpreted to include children born before 2013," said Martens.


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ITC REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2015 RESULTS
NOVI, Mich., April 30, 2015 —
Increased first quarter 2015 operating earnings of $0.47 per diluted common share; first quarter 2015 reported earnings of $0.43 per diluted common share
Capital investments of $168.7 million for the three months ended March 31, 2015
Reaffirmed 2015 operating earnings per share guidance of $2.00 to $2.15 per diluted share and capital investment guidance of $710 to $810 million
ITC Holdings Corp. (NYSE: ITC) announced today its results for the quarter ended March 31, 2015.
Reported net income for the first quarter, measured in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), was $67.1 million, or $0.43 per diluted common share, compared to $69.1 million or $0.43 per diluted common share for the first quarter of 2014.
Operating earnings for the first quarter were $73.1 million, or $0.47 per diluted common share, compared to operating earnings of $69.8 million, or $0.44 per diluted common share for the first quarter of 2014.
ITC invested $168.7 million in capital projects at its operating companies during the three month period ended March 31, 2015, including $36.8 million at ITCTransmission, $30.0 million at METC, $95.0 million at ITC Midwest, $5.8 million at ITC Great Plains and $1.1 million of Development.
"We had a solid start to 2015 and made good progress with our plans," said Joseph L. Welch, chairman, president and CEO of ITC. "I am pleased with the performance and resiliency of our systems given the severe weather conditions experienced in our regions in the first quarter. Our efforts in the first quarter position us well to achieve our operational and financial objectives for the year."
Operating Earnings
Operating earnings are non-GAAP measures that exclude the impact of after-tax expenses associated with the following items:
The Entergy Corporation transaction expenses of approximately $0.6 million, or $0.01 per diluted common share, for the first quarter of 2014.
Regulatory charges of approximately $1.1 million, or $0.01 per diluted common share, for the first quarter of 2015 and $0.1 million for the same period in 2014. The 2015 charge relates to management's decision to write-off abandoned project costs at ITCTransmission. The 2014 charge relates to certain acquisition accounting adjustments for ITC Midwest, ITCTransmission, and METC resulting from the FERC audit order on ITC Midwest issued in May 2012.
The estimated refund liability associated with the Midcontinent ISO (MISO) regional base ROE rate (the "base ROE") of $4.8 million, or $0.03 per diluted common share, for the three months ended March 31, 2015. The refund liability reflects the estimated refund obligation associated with the base ROE 206 complaint.
Operating earnings for the first quarter of 2015 increased by $3.3 million, or $0.03 per diluted common share, compared with the same period last year. The increase of approximately 7% compared to the prior period was largely attributable to higher income associated with increased rate base at our operating companies, partially offset by non-recoverable bonus payments associated with completion of the V-Plan project at ITC Great Plains in December of 2014. Absent the V-Plan project bonus payments in the first quarter, year-over-year operating earnings would have increased by approximately 15%.
Balance Sheet Activities
On April 7, 2015, ITC Midwest issued $225 million aggregate principal amount of 3.83% First Mortgage Bonds, Series G, due 2055. The proceeds from the issuance were used for general corporate purposes, including the repayment of borrowings under ITC Midwest's revolving credit agreement. ITC Midwest's First Mortgage Bonds are issued under its first mortgage and deed of trust and secured by a first mortgage lien on substantially all of its property.
2015 EPS and Capital Investment Guidance
For 2015, ITC is reaffirming its full year operating earnings per share guidance of $2.00 to $2.15. ITC is also reaffirming its 2015 capital guidance range of $710 to $810 million, which includes $170 to $200 million for ITCTransmission, $150 to $170 million for METC, $380 to $405 million for ITC Midwest, $10 to $25 million for ITC Great Plains and up to $10 million of Development.
First Quarter 2015 Operating Earnings Financial Results Detail
ITC's operating revenues for the first quarter of 2015 increased to $280.0 million compared to $258.6 million for the first quarter of 2014. Amounts reported for the first quarter of 2015 exclude approximately $7.5 million in reduced pre-tax revenues associated with the base ROE refund liability. The increase in operating revenues was primarily due to higher revenue requirements attributable to higher rate base at our regulated operating subsidiaries, as well as an increase in regional cost sharing revenues resulting from additional capital projects being placed in-service that have been identified by MISO as eligible for regional cost sharing and higher accumulated investment for the Kansas V-Plan Project.
Operation and maintenance (O&M) expenses of $25.6 million were consistent with the prior period.
General and administrative (G&A) expenses of $39.4 million were $12.4 million higher compared to the same period in 2014. Amounts reported for the first quarter of 2015 exclude approximately $1.5 million of pre-tax expenses related to regulatory charges and the first quarter of 2014 exclude approximately $1.0 million of pre-tax expenses related to the Entergy transaction. The increase in G&A expenses was primarily due to incentive-based compensation for bonus payments associated with completion of the V-Plan project at ITC Great Plains in December of 2014.
Depreciation and amortization expenses of $34.4 million increased by $3.0 million compared to the same period in 2014 due to a higher depreciable base resulting from property, plant and equipment additions. Taxes other than income taxes of $22.4 million were $1.2 million higher than the same period in 2014. This increase was due to 2014 capital additions at our regulated operating subsidiaries, which are included in the tax base for 2015 personal property tax calculations. Interest expense of $48.1 million increased by $2.9 million compared to the same period in 2014. Amounts reported for the first quarter 2015 and 2014 exclude $0.4 million and $0.1 million, respectively, of pre-tax expenses related to the adjustments to operating earnings. The increase was due primarily to higher borrowing levels to finance capital investments.
The effective income tax rate for the first quarter of 2015 was 37.6 percent compared to 38.3 percent for the same period last year. Amounts reported for the first quarter of 2015 and 2014 exclude approximately $3.5 million and $0.4 million, respectively, associated with adjustments to operating earnings.
First Quarter Conference Call and Webcast
Joseph L. Welch, chairman, president and CEO and Rejji P. Hayes, senior vice president, CFO and treasurer will discuss the first quarter results in a conference call at 11 a.m. Eastern on Thursday, April 30, 2015. Individuals wishing to participate in the conference call may dial toll-free 877-644-1296 (domestic) or 914-495-8555 (international); there is no passcode. A listen-only live webcast of the conference call, including accompanying slides and the earnings release, will be available on the company's investor information page. The conference call replay, available through May 5, 2015, can be accessed by dialing 855-859- 2056 (toll free) or 404-537-3406, passcode 17824916. The webcast will be archived on the ITC website.
Other Available Information
More detail about first quarter 2015 results may be found in ITC's Form 10-Q filing. Once filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, an electronic copy of our 10-Q can be found at our website, http://investor.itc-holdings.com. Paper copies can also be made available by contacting us through our website. Additionally, a calendar of our future earnings calls can be found at our website, http://investor.itc-holdings.com.
About ITC Holdings Corp.
ITC Holdings Corp. (NYSE: ITC) is the nation's largest independent electric transmission company. Based in Novi, Michigan, ITC invests in the electric transmission grid to improve reliability, expand access to markets, lower the overall cost of delivered energy and allow new generating resources to interconnect to its transmission systems. Through its regulated operating subsidiaries ITCTransmission, Michigan Electric Transmission Company, ITC Midwest and ITC Great Plains, ITC owns and operates high-voltage transmission facilities in Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Missouri, Kansas and Oklahoma, serving a combined peak load exceeding 26,000 megawatts along approximately 15,600 circuit miles of transmission line. ITC's grid development focus includes growth through regulated infrastructure investment as well as domestic and international expansion through merchant and other commercial development opportunities. For more information, please visit ITC's website at www.itc-holdings.com (ITC-itc-F).
GAAP v. Non-GAAP Measures
ITC's reported earnings are prepared in accordance with GAAP and represent earnings as reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission. ITC's management believes that operating earnings, or GAAP earnings adjusted for specific items as described in the release that are generally not indicative of our core operations, provides additional information that is useful to investors in understanding ITC's underlying performance, business and performance trends, and helps facilitate period to period comparisons. However, non-GAAP financial measures are not required to be uniformly applied, are not audited and should not be considered in isolation or as substitutes for results prepared in accordance with GAAP.
This press release contains certain statements that describe our management's beliefs concerning future business conditions, plans and prospects, growth opportunities and the outlook for our business and the electricity transmission industry based upon information currently available. Such statements are "forward-looking" statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Wherever possible, we have identified these forward-looking statements by words such as "will," "may," "anticipates," "believes," "intends," "estimates," "expects," "projects" and similar phrases. These forwardlooking statements are based upon assumptions our management believes are reasonable. Such forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties which could cause our actual results, performance and achievements to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these statements, including, among others, the risks and uncertainties disclosed in our annual reports on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and other filings made with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Because our forward-looking statements are based on estimates and assumptions that are subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control or are subject to change, actual results could be materially different and any or all of our forward-looking statements may turn out to be wrong. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date made and can be affected by assumptions we might make or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. Many factors mentioned in our discussion in this release and in our annual and quarterly reports will be important in determining future results. Consequently, we cannot assure you that our expectations or forecasts expressed in such forward-looking statements will be achieved. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to publicly update any of our forward-looking or other statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.


Forward Delete is a small extension enabling that mysterious key called forward delete, present on all Extended Keyboards. When Forward Delete is installed, press this key to delete the character at the right of the insertion point.... However, it does remove line breaks, page breaks, and column breaks. If Overtype mode was active when you saved changes to your document, that fact is not stored in the document. So, if Overtype mode is turned off in a later editing session, reopening that document will not turn it back on.
How to auto forward email messages in Outlook?
The 3 types of chaining are: Backward chaining, Forward chaining, and Total Task chaining. Backward Chaining - Backward chaining refers to teaching a behavioral chain beginning with the last step: you would completely prompt the entire chain of behaviors except the last step.... The shell command to change key bindings is bindkey, Backspace presumably sends byte 127 (^?; check by typing Ctrl+V then Backspace), and the edition command to delete a character backwards is backward-delete-char.
When you forward your mail, any mail coming to your MIT account will be immediately redirected to the address you specify, and will not show up in your MIT email inbox or MIT web email access program (WebMail or OWA). When you split your email, a copy is made of all incoming email. One copy will appear in your MIT inbox as before, and another copy will be sent to the address you specify.... When you forward your mail, any mail coming to your MIT account will be immediately redirected to the address you specify, and will not show up in your MIT email inbox or MIT web email access program (WebMail or OWA). When you split your email, a copy is made of all incoming email. One copy will appear in your MIT inbox as before, and another copy will be sent to the address you specify.
Internet browsers use �Back� and �Forward� buttons to allow you to navigate through websites you have recently visited. These buttons are usually located in the top left corner of the browser�s toolbar.
The shell command to change key bindings is bindkey, Backspace presumably sends byte 127 (^?; check by typing Ctrl+V then Backspace), and the edition command to delete a character backwards is backward-delete-char.
Dear R-helpers. Can someone kindly tell me how to replace a single forward slash with double backward slash in a string? i.e., from "a/b" to "a\\b" Many thanks in advance.


Based on the positive feedback received after posting my first "Mike and Sue", I decided to put some effort into extending the series for at least a few more episodes.
In this installment, Mike explains (among other things) the value of letting a worm bin age before adding worms.
I'm always on the lookout for ways to get worm composting on the radar screen of the (non-composting) mainstream public, but I can honestly say that figuring out some way to use worm castings in beauty products has never once crossed my mind!
Thanks very much to Louise for alerting me about this intriguing news release! Pretty crazy stuff – and if castings DO indeed have any anti-aging properties (we shall see if anyone else backs up this claim), this could end up getting pretty interesting!
Organic farmers already know earthworm castings make plants grow larger and faster by promoting healthy stem cells and extending the life cycle with an arsenal of anti-aging enzymes. According to Wayne Perry, Head of Development for GSC Products, those same compounds produce similar anti-aging effects on human skin.
I'm sure some of you must be wondering what ever became of Neil's VB24 series (there hasn't been an update since the beginning of October). Well, as is often the case in my own world, Neil ended up very busy with "life stuff" (in his case, this involved attending teacher's college while holding down a full-time job) and simply hasn't had the time to provide any more updates. Of course, this is totally understandable, and I will always be grateful for everything he has able to share with us (not the least of which was his building guide, of course!).
When long-time reader, and good "worm friend", John Duffy, recently told me about his own VB24 building experience, I decided ask if he'd be willing to let me share some of his updates here – and, as you can probably tell (wink, wink), he say yes!
I personally didn't have a "helper" available so I used several 1 gallon paint cans (evenly spaced) to support the wood as I made my cuts…As any DIY guy can attest, sharp tools are much safer than dull tools.
I had a new carbide tipped blade in my circular saw so sawing the wood cleanly was a breeze. Cutting the conduit would have been a lot easier if I would have had the presence of mind to invest in a new hacksaw blade.
I painted the VB24 with 2 coats of exterior acrylic paint inside & out and let it dry thoroughly before adding my worms. Tonight, I added the contents of my 5 tray stackable worm bin. I had probably 2 lbs of redworms and maybe a pound of European nightcrawlers. I put down a layer of cardboard to cover the grate & plugged any gaps with moist newspaper. I live in southeastern Indiana so it's a bit on the chilly side in these parts. I have the bin in an unheated garage where the air temp is about 45*… The bedding temp is holding at 50*…I plan to add some fresh horse manure to help raise the bedding temp.
I'll try to send you monthly updates as to how the bin is performing… I suspect that things will be slow-going until about March when things warm up a bit around here.
…"You might be a wormhead if" you ask Santa for an 18″ compost thermometer…Yup, I did.
We are users of Seventh Generation products and their latest packaging for laundry detergent is *worm friendly*. The outer shell is recycled fiber that I shred for my worm bins. The rest is goes into our normal recycle stream (cap to Preserve http://www.preserveproducts.com , inner plastic liner to the curbside recycle program).
That looks like a really cool bottle to me!
Thanks again, Mark, for sharing this with me and the rest of the RWC community!
As readers may recall, I ended up with a VERY serious infestation of fungus gnats in this system not too long ago (see "Worm Inn Journal-12-02-11"), and added a lot of parasitic nematodes in an effort to see if I could get things under control.
Initially, I was planning to do some serious gnat-vacuuming as well (taking advantage of the fact that fungus gnats are very attracted to lights) – but then decided against it on the recommendation of one of our readers. As this person pointed out, waiting to see how effective the nematodes were on their own might be a better approach.
While I certainly won't claim that all the fungus gnats have vanished, I am definitely blown away by the drastic reduction in the population of adults in the system (which seems to indicate that many larvae have been killed by the nematodes). Had I started vacuuming up adults like a madman, it would have been a lot harder to determine if the nematodes were having a significant impact or not.
I can't say for sure – but I have a sneaking suspicion that these nematodes (Steinernema feltiae) are more effective against fungus gnats than against fruit flies – which I guess shouldn't be too surprising since gnats seem to be the main target organisms they are used for. There is no doubt that S. feltiae CAN and DO kill the fruit fly larvae – as I've seen in my little fruit fly farms – but I haven't seen the same sort of impact on the adult population (something I'm very puzzled by, to be honest). I think what I really need to do – apart from more testing with fruit flies – is see if I can set up an experimental "gnat farm" as well, so I can see (up close and personal) how the nematodes are affecting the overall population.
Anyway – based on this positive progress on the gnat-eradication front, I may start adding more food to the Worm Inn fairly soon. I'm certainly not going to wait until every last gnat has vanished from the system.


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"Délivrance des Emmurés de Carcassonne"(Deliverance of the Captives of Carcassonne), 1879, after a painting by Jean Paul Laurens (1838–1921) exhibited in the Salon of 1879, printed by Alfred Salmon (fl. 1863–94)," first published in "L'Art, 1879. This impression is from the sumptuous double volumes of MK Halévys "L'Eau-Forte", 1888.
Condition: strong, well-inked and well-printed impression in good condition (i.e. there are no significant stains, tears, folds or signs of foxing, but there is a band of age-toning verso).
I am selling this original etching (with engraving) by Flameng for a total cost of AU$72 (currently US$55.29/EUR49.57/GBP42.65 at the time of this listing) including postage and handling to anywhere in the world.
If you are interested in purchasing this fine print by one of the leading reproductive printmakers of the 19th century, please contact me (oz_jim@printsandprinciples.com) and I will send you a PayPal invoice to make the payment easy.
At the time of executing this print, Flameng was famous as a reproductive printmaker (i.e. an artist who translates paintings and other artworks into prints). His reputation was established by his very first etching: a copy of Rembrandt's "Hundred Guilder Print" (see his graphic translation at https://www.artsy.net/artwork/leopold-flameng-after-rembrandt-van-rijn-the-hundred-guilder-print). This print was so good that Charles Blanc exclaimed: "He has imitated Rembrandt to a point that would deceive the master himself were he to return to this world" (FL Leipnik, 1924, p. 119).
Although this graphic translation is far from the incredibly sensitive rendering of Rembrandt's masterpiece, I wish to draw attention to his treatment of the children portrayed in this print. Few artists have the skill to render the fine facial features of children when they are bathed in light. Note for example how Flemeng creates white lines to represent the children's blonde hair, a feat that is not so straight forward when one is making an image only using black lines.


Representing yourself in court can seem like an effective way to save money on legal costs, and if you're innocent of the crime you've been accused of, you may not see the need for legal representation.
The opposing party will almost certainly be led by a lawyer or legal team with extensive experience and legal knowledge. They'll know far more about the law than you do and will be equipped with everything they need to put forward a strong case against you. By not having legal support of your own, you'll automatically be at a disadvantage.
If you get a lawyer, they'll have many years of experience dealing with other lawyers, police officers, prosecutors, judges and juries. They'll know exactly what makes these people tick and they'll have plenty of strategies up their sleeve to ensure you get the best possible defence.
If you've been accused of a crime, you need someone at your side who will keep calm and stay level headed when faced with accusations that you might find offensive or upsetting. When representing yourself in court, there's a risk that you may become defensive, angry and upset when the charges or evidence are presented to the court. Your every word, action and expression will be scrutinised in the courtroom and your response could influence the judge or jury's decision in a negative way.
If you've been arrested, it's crucial that you get legal representation as soon as possible. Get in touch with the team at Burton Copeland and we'll support you from the initial police interview right through to a court case if necessary.
We're available around the clock so whether you need legal representation for an alleged driving offence, criminal offence, or disciplinary proceeding, we'll be at your side.


Physicist and astronomer Arthur Eddington tested Einstein's theory of relativity at an eclipse in 1919. A lifelong Quaker, his 1929 Swarthmore lecture explores how science and religion define and look at reality. 'You will understand the true spirit neither of science nor of religion unless seeking is placed at the forefront.' George Ellis: 'He puts a strong line against simplistic reductionism in relation to our minds... He emphasises that when we ask the question, 'What are we to think of it all? What is it all about?' the answer must embrace but not be limited to scientific answer. His lecture explores this in a delightful way, that remains fully relevant today.' 'The attitude of the scientist, here so admirably explained, is the attitude, also, of the mystic. Experience, to both, is what matters most.' - The 'Sufi Quarterly', 1929.
Planning your pilgrimage. A planning booklet for those intending to visit places of Quaker interest in the North west of England.


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Who owns the islands between Wilmington and the mouth of the Cape Fear River?
Why don't school buses have to provide seatbelts for our children?
Why was the adult basketball league at the MLK Center dropped?
Is New Hanover County Sheriff Ed McMahon a Republican or a Democrat?
How are Frances Weller and Margaret Weller Stargell related to Katherine Moore?
Will the concrete divider that marks the path of the Cross-City Trail where it crosses George Anderson Drive be painted a visible color?
Can Progress Energy's Sutton plant be adapted to burn garbage for New Hanover County?
Why do county courts use so much paper when computer records are available to all?
How can you dispose of small propane bottles?
Are there any local light pollution ordinances?
Why did New Hanover Regional Medical Center remove the recycling bins?
Why did New Hanover County buy iPads for employees and how many were bought?
Where can I report water being wasted?
Most of the spoil islands in the Cape Fear River are owned by the Army Corps of Engineers. (StarNews file photo)
There are from 18 to 20 small islands in the Cape Fear River between Wilmington and the mouth of the river, and about half are under the control of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, said John Manning, a realty specialist for the Corps' Wilmington District.
"The islands that were given to us as spoil were given to us by the state of North Carolina," Manning said.
About 10 of the spoil islands were given easements by the state in 1965 so the Corps of Engineers could deposit sand, soil and other material dredged during regular channel-clearing operations, Manning said.
"We also have spoil islands up and down the (Intracoastal Waterway)," he said.
As for the islands in the Cape Fear River, "other ones could be private or public. We don't really know. It's up to the individual to go down and check on land records themselves," Manning said.
For purposes of hunting on a spoil island, "You would have to get written permission from the underlying owner, which is the state, and then they would come to us," Manning said.
If the state approves hunting on an island, the Corps would also likely approve the request, Manning said.
Is it legal to hunt or shoot on the spoil islands in the Cape Fear River?
Why is Bald Head Island in Brunswick County instead of New Hanover County?
Elmo Langley


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Thomas à Kempis (c. 1380 – 25 July 1471; ; ) was a German-Dutch canon regular of the late medieval period and the author of The Imitation of Christ, published anonymously in Latin in the Netherlands c. 1418–1427, one of the most popular and best known Christian devotional books. His name means "Thomas of Kempen", Kempen being his home town.

He was a member of the Modern Devotion, a spiritual movement during the late medieval period, and a follower of Geert Groote and Florens Radewyns, the founders of the Brethren of the Common Life.

Life
Thomas was born in Kempen in the Rhineland. His surname at birth was Hemerken (or Hammerlein), meaning the family's profession, "little hammer," Latinized into "Malleolus." His father, Johann, was a blacksmith and his mother, Gertrud, was a schoolmistress. Although almost universally known in English as Thomas à Kempis, the "a" represents the Latin "from" and is erroneously accented. In his writings he signed himself "Thomas Kempensis" or "Thomas Kempis".

In 1392, Thomas followed his brother, Johann, to Deventer in the Netherlands in order to attend the noted Latin school there. While attending this school, Thomas encountered the Brethren of the Common Life, followers of Gerard Groote's Modern Devotion. He attended school in Deventer from 1392 to 1399.

After leaving school, Thomas went to the nearby city of Zwolle to visit his brother again, after Johann had become the prior of the Monastery of Mount St. Agnes there. This community was one of the Canons Regular of the Congregation of Windesheim, founded by disciples of Groote in order to provide a way of life more in keeping with the norms of monastic life of the period. Thomas himself entered Mount St. Agnes in 1406. He was not ordained a priest, however, until almost a decade later. He became a prolific copyist and writer. Thomas received Holy Orders in 1413 and was made sub-prior of the monastery in 1429.

His first tenure of office as subprior was interrupted by the exile of the community from Agnetenberg (1429).  A dispute had arisen in connection with an appointment to the vacant See of Utrecht. Pope Martin V rejected the nomination of Bishop-elect Rudolf van Diepholt, and imposed an interdict. The Canons remained in exile in observance of the interdict until the question was settled (1432). During this time, Thomas was sent to Arnhem to care for his ailing brother. He remained there until his brother died in November, 1432.

Otherwise, Thomas spent his time between devotional exercises in writing and in copying manuscripts. He copied the Bible no fewer than four times, one of the copies being preserved at Darmstadt, Germany, in five volumes. In its teachings he was widely read and his works abound with biblical quotations, especially from the New Testament.

As subprior he was charged with instructing novices, and in that capacity wrote four booklets between 1418 and 1427, later collected and named after the title of the first chapter of the first booklet: The Imitation of Christ. Thomas More said it was one of the three books everybody ought to own. Thirteen translations of the Imitatio Christi and three paraphrases in English seem to have been published between 1500 and 1700. Thomas died near Zwolle in 1471. There is a legend that he was denied canonization some 200 years after his death by the Catholic Church due to the presence of scratch marks on the interior of his coffin lid, which supposedly disqualifies him from sainthood as it would mean he did not peacefully embrace death. However, there is scant evidence to support that he was buried alive or the idea that the Church would have denied him sainthood if they did discover he died in this manner.

Works

Kempis's 1441 autograph manuscript of The Imitation of Christ is available in the Bibliothèque Royale in Brussels (shelfmark: MS 5455-61).

He also wrote the biographies of New Devotion members—Gerard Groote, Floris Radewijns, Jan van de Gronde, and Jan Brinckerinck. His important works include a series of sermons to the novices of St. Augustine Monastery, including Prayers and Meditations on the Life of Christ, Meditations on the Incarnation of Christ, Of True Compunction of Heart, Soliloquy of the Soul, Garden of Roses, Valley of Lilies, and a Life of St. Lidwina of Schiedam.

Quotations
The following quotes are attributed to him:

"Without the Way, there is no going,
Without the Truth, there is no knowing,
Without the Life, there is no living."

"If thou wilt receive profit, read with humility, simplicity, and faith, and seek not at any time the fame of being learned."
"At the Day of Judgement we shall not be asked what we have read, but what we have done." — The Imitation of Christ, Book I, ch. 3

"For man proposes, but God disposes" — The Imitation of Christ, Book I, ch. 19

"If, however, you seek Jesus in all things, you will surely find Him. " — The Imitation of Christ, Book II, ch. 7

"O quam cito transit gloria mundi [Oh how quickly the glory of the world passes away]" — The Imitation of Christ, suggested as the origin of the phrase "Sic transit gloria mundi"

"In angello cum libello" (with slight variations), "In a little corner with a little book"
— Shortened form of a motto often ascribed to, or associated with, Thomas a Kempis. The complete saying as reported by an early biographer is a mixture of Latin and Dutch and runs as follows: "In omnibus requiem quaesivi, sed non inveni, nisi in hoexkens ende boexkens", "I have sought everywhere for peace, but I have found it not, save in nooks and in books."

Veneration
A monument was dedicated to his memory in the presence of the archbishop of Utrecht in St. Michael's Church, Zwolle, on November 11, 1897. In 1964, this church closed, causing his shrine to be moved to a new St. Michael's Church outside the centre of Zwolle. In 2005, this church also closed and his shrine was moved to the Onze-Lieve-Vrouw-ten-Hemelopneming kerk (Assumption of Mary church) in the centre of Zwolle.

References

Notes

Citations

Sources

This article incorporates Public Domain material from the New Schaff-Herzog Encyclopedia of Religious Knowledge, Vol. VI: Innocents — Liudger, Schaff, Philip.

External links

Read Imitation of Christ online
 Quotes from Thomas à Kempis
 Devotio Moderna
 Thomas à Kempis College, Zwolle, Netherlands; at Wikipedia (NL)

1380 births
1471 deaths
15th-century biographers
15th-century Christian mystics
15th-century Dutch Roman Catholic priests
15th-century German Roman Catholic priests
15th-century Latin writers
Augustinian canons
Burials in Overijssel
Christian hagiographers
Devotio Moderna
Dutch biographers
Dutch male writers
German biographers
German expatriates in the Netherlands
German male non-fiction writers
Male biographers
Medieval Christian devotional writers
Medieval European scribes
People from the Electorate of Cologne
People from Zwolle
Pre-Reformation Anglican saints
Roman Catholic mystics

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