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Q: Automate multiple repetitive ArcGIS 10.2 Table Relates? I have a situation where multiple users will be creating many file gdb's in ArcGIS 10.2 using just the basic license.  The data format is standardized and will have a feature layer with point data and a set number of fields and then many pre-generated tables of data that summarize the points.  For example a table with counts for a specific field value, or counts for a specific category of data based on a field in the points layer.  The current workflow is then to manually create table relates so that the user can highlight summary data and then have that highlight the relevant records in the points data.
As the data will always have the same fields (only the data changes) and the summaries will always be the same I'd like to automate the building of the table relates instead of the user having to go in and do them all by hand.  The desired result being that the user gets that interactive selection that comes with a table relate.
After looking around for possible solutions I've found several that are similar...for example using joins, or using the Make Table View to 'relate' data...but none of them address the interactive selection piece which is what I want.
This is the Basic License so Relationship Classes in the gdb are not an option.  It looks like ArcGIS Pro adds the functionality in ArcPy as arcpy.AddRelate_management but that same feature is not available in 10.2.
I'm open to ArcPy, the ModelBuilder or some other solution.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


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Teenage cyclist declared brain dead after car crash
April 26, 2020 - 1:18
TEHRAN - Iranian teenager cyclist Mahyar Farzaneh, who was injured in a car collision in Yazd on Friday, was declared brain dead.
The 17-year-old cyclist was killed as a result of car crash. Farzaneh was a member of Iran Cycling National Team.
"Mahyar was one of Iranian talented cyclists and had a bright future ahead but he was hit by a car unfortunately," President of Iran Cycling Federation Khosro Ghamari said.
His family tries to accept organ donation of their deceased beloved.
Mahyar Farzaneh
car collision

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Looking up Franklin Street from Commercial Street. I will have to do this shot again later some evening so the sky doesn't appear as washed out.
I'm from Portland, but go to school in Boston and this just brings me right home! Love this shot!
Thanks, Anonymous! Hope you are enjoying your higher education in one of our country's finest cities.


text:
Husband Is Forced To Carry His 81-Year-Old Wife Six Hours To Collect Her Pension Because The Government Has Failed Them
BY César Albarrán Torres | October 30, 2019 AT 11:54 am
By César Albarrán Torres October 30, 2019 at 11:54 am
Sometimes we read stories on the Internet that reveal the best and the worst of humanity. Such a case happened in Peru, a country that, like most places in Latin America, presents disgusting socioeconomic inequality.
Yes, you have the high-end restaurants in Lima that are ranked as some of the best in the world and are over $100 for a tasting menu, but you also have the rural indigenous populations living in poverty. For decades, indigenous Peruvians have been dealt a terrible hand and regardless of who sits in government (and Peru has gone through everything, from neoliberal bullies to even a president of indigenous origin), they are often forgotten.
A recent story brought to light the precarious situation in which millions of Peruvians (and Latin Americans) are forced to do the impossible to make ends meet.
She is 81-years-old, he is 77-years-old, and they are alone in the world, so he had to carry his sick wife so she could collect her pension.
Peruvian social media was recently shocked by the story of Ricardo Campos Haro and his sick wife, Victoria Vega Medina. Every two months, the couple takes a perilous three hour journey so Victoria can collect her pension. He carries his wife using a large cloth and keeping the balance with a cane. Ricardo believes that a bus ride would be detrimental to his wife's health.
In an interview, the man said that if there is a car crash his wife might not survive it and that when she travels on a vehicle she gets a terrible nausea that cannot be controlled with medicine. Then there is a three hour journey back home. The pension amounts to 250 Peruvian soles, which is roughly $75 USD. Yes, you read that right. Next time you have a #firstworldproblem remember this figure. Most of the world's population lives on that or less.
This story isn't "sweet": it is an indication that there is something seriously wrong with the system.
Ricardo and Victoria travel from the town of Queros to Tayabamba, the capital city of the province of Pataz. Some in social media romanticized this story as an example of eternal love, of the real commitment of a marriage en la salud y en la enfermedad. But the fact is that no one should have to endure this kind of pain just to survive. There is something wrong with a system that makes people risk their lives and shed any ounce of dignity for a government allowance that is barely enough to get by. There are a little over 3 million senior citizens in Peru (over 60), which represents roughly 10% of the population.
Once Ricardo became famous online, he was granted a power of attorney to collect his wife's pension.
After their case became viral on social media and was broadcast on news channels, the director of the Pension 65 program, of which Victoria is a beneficiary, provided Ricardo with a power of attorney to collect his wife's pension by himself. In an interview, he stated that he had tried to sort out the paperwork but it was not possible for him to work within the time frame that the office demanded. There also needs to be better information programs for older folks to understand bureaucratic processes, particularly if they live in a precarious situation.
This seems like a happy ending, but it is far from ideal.
Credit: YouTube. Diario El Comercio videos
Ricardo himself is vulnerable, an elderly citizen who should be treated with more respect and dignity. He is an elder, caray! In an interview, he said that his own body "is completely falling apart". The mountain area of La Libertad (quite an ironic name, meaning Freedom) in Peru's Northwest is one of the prime examples of Latin American inequality. Many of the older folk that need to collect their checks also face adversity and are impaired when it comes to freedom of movement.
But the story triggered online discussions around the availability of social programs to the dispossessed.
We like this user's take on the situation: people are citizens, and those who are poor need much more help. She also pointed out that far from being the exception, seeing elderly people travelling great distances to collect their checks is the norm. It is also common to see long queues in the state owned bank on paydays. There are over 500,000 senior citizens in the program. Other users asked if this is what the Peruvian government judges as justice when it comes to aid programs. According to census data, 21.7% of the Peruvian population lives in poverty. In rural mountain areas, however, the figure reaches 48%.
Peru abuelitos true love
These Tourists Thought It Would Be Funny To Poop Inside A Temple In Machu Picchu: They're Facing Prison Time
By Alexis Barron January 15, 2020 at 2:52 pm
BY Alexis Barron | January 15, 2020 AT 2:52 pm
ThatGayGringo / Instagram
Picture this: You've made the long, difficult journey to Machu Picchu, taking a variety of planes and trains and buses to get there, and now finally, you're inside the grounds. You begin to explore the more than 500-year-old site, marveling at its ancient structures, its surreal terraces and ramps. Life is sweet; the world is wonderful and mysterious. But at some point —and for some unknown reason— you sneak into a sacred temple constructed half a millennium ago, drop your pants, and POOP one of the greatest marvels this world has to offer. This actually happened.
Six tourists emptied their bowels inside the hallowed grounds of an Incan worshipping room: There's something deeply wrong with some people.
For some inexplicable reason, that's exactly what a group of tourists allegedly did over the weekend, France 24 reports. Six people in their twenties and early thirties were arrested on Sunday after Peruvian authorities caught them in a restricted area of Machu Picchu's Temple of the Sun, a revered part of the UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Park rangers and police found feces inside of the temple.
The Temple of the Sun had also been damaged after a piece of stone had "broken off a wall and caused a crack in the floor," regional police chief Wilbert Leyva told Andina, a local news agency. "The six tourists are being detained and investigated by the public ministry for the alleged crime against cultural heritage," Leyva said.
The group was made up of one French, two Brazilians, two Argentines and a Chilean, according to police.
They face at least four years in prison if found guilty of damaging Peru's heritage. Several parts of the semicircular Temple of the Sun are off limits to tourists for preservation reasons.
Worshipers at the temple would make offerings to the sun.
The sun was considered the most important deity in the Inca empire as well as other pre-Inca civilizations in the Andean region. The Machu Picchu estate—which includes three distinct areas for agriculture, housing and religious ceremonies—is the most iconic site from the Inca empire that ruled a large swathe of western South America for 100 years before the Spanish conquest in the 16th century.
Three Argentines, a Brazilian, a Chilean and a French woman make up the group.
Local media reported that all the tourists were aged between 20 and 32. In 2014, authorities denounced a trend that saw tourists getting naked at the sacred location. Four American tourists were detained in March of that year forremoving their clothes and posing for photos at the site. In a pair of separate incidents earlier in the same week, two Canadians and two Australians were detained for stripping down for pictures there.
Machu Picchu, means "old mountain" in the Quechua language indigenous to the area.
The historic site is at the top of a lush mountain and was built during the reign of the Inca emperor Pachacuti (1438-1471). It lies around 100 kilometers (60 miles) from the Andean city of Cusco, the old Inca capital in southeastern Peru. The site was rediscovered in 1911 by the American explorer Hiram Bingham. UNESCO declared it a World Heritage Site in 1983.
tourismbad touristMachu PicchuPeru
This Comic Is Being Used To Highlight The Chaos Of Climate Change In Latin America
By Araceli Cruz January 9, 2020 at 4:30 pm
BY Araceli Cruz | January 9, 2020 AT 4:30 pm
el_rubencio / Instagram
The days of comics that are all about cape crusaders and masked bad guys are over. We're living in a new time where we can't afford to pretend we live in a fantasy world. Artists today are taking the modern world we're living in, full of evil politics, natural disasters, environmental issues, and whatever else is thrown our way and applying that to a new frontier of comic-book stories.
Creatives have launched "Puro Peru," a kid-friendly comic book that educates and explores indigenous communities and essential issues such as the environment.
Credit: Vooltea
The comic book is 92 pages and includes eight separate stories that are all about discovering Peru, the people who live there, and how they're tackling issues with climate change.
"We present eight stories with stories that bring us closer to Peru in a personal way, on a journey full of ancestral traditions and knowledge," creators state on their website. "With them, we want to sensitize society about the environmental situation of the planet, in the Amazon rainforest and in the mountains of Peru. We hope you enjoy this great adventure designed by several of the best illustrators and writers in Spain."
The book is published by CESAL, an extension of Vooltea, which is an interactive and educational website aimed at young people and teachers to publicize the different realities of five Latin American countries, which include El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, Peru, and the Dominican Republic.
Let's meet some of the artists and the stories they're sharing.
Javier de Isusi and Alex Orbe take on the causes and consequences of climate change in their comic book stories.
"Climate change is currently the main environmental problem and one of the biggest challenges of our time," they write. "This also exacerbates the situation of poverty in which the most disadvantaged groups are found: women, peasants, and indigenous population, and it is with them that CESAL works in Peru."
Calo, an award-winning artist, takes on climate change by exploring how people in various countries handle the changes to their environment.
"What measures have been taken to mitigate climate change?" he asks in his story about international measures to break and adapt to climate change. "When are we worldwide? It's about taking a trip through the reality of different continents and countries to find good and bad practices."
Emilio Ruiz Zavala and Ana Miralles dive into the indigenous and Sierra population and how these benefits the mitigation of climate change.
"Climate change especially affects indigenous peoples and rural communities," the artists state. "On the other hand, they are also the ones with the most accumulated knowledge of climatic phenomena and how to deal with variability and unpredictability."
Artist Rubencio addresses the critical aspect of strengthening the capabilities of the indigenous population in order to take on the issues of climate change.
"The concept of resilience has become fundamental in the theory and practice of disaster risk reduction and currently has an important place in discussions about adaptation to climate change," he states.
Núria Tamarit, one of the youngest artists taking part in the series, looks at how people can help their local environment in order to make a global impact. "The intention is to encourage critical reflection on the society in which we live and propose changes (clues) that promote a new development model based on sustainability and respect for the environment," Tamarit states.
Teresa Valero's story takes on how climate change is affecting the jungle of Peru.
"The Amazon represents 62 percent of the Peruvian territory. In her, they inhabit the greater number of native cultures and the greater biodiversity of the country and the world. As a consequence of Climate Change, strong droughts and floods stand out, causing the loss of forests."
It's so beautiful that kids today (and adults) can understand what is happening to our planet on an intermediate level — in Peru — in a way that isn't complex to understand.
Often, people don't seem to grasp the severity of climate change because they feel the problem is more significant than themselves and too challenging to be part of the change. These stories show us in simpler and creative terms that change is possible. The comic book is available to download for free. Click here.
READ: The 'Sahuaraura' Manuscript, An Ancient Peruvian Document That Was Thought Lost—Was Found Just Last Week, Over 100 Years Later
Climate ChangeComicIndigenousnPeru
Mexican Security Forces Just Killed La Catrina – One Of Mexico's Most Famous Cartel Leaders And Not Everyone Approves BY César Albarrán Torres
Mexico's Popocatépetl Volcano Erupted And Now People Think The World Is Coming To An End
Araceli Cruz / January 13, 2020 Araceli Cruz
Pictures Speak Louder Than Words—18 Photos That Show Just How Devastating Australia's Bushfires Have Been
Chile's Government Is Setting An Example For The World As They Fight Climate Change By Going Carbon Neutral By 2050
César Albarrán Torres / January 2, 2020 César Albarrán Torres


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Q: Select rows that are different in SQL I have a table with way too many columns and a couple million rows that I need to query for differences.
On these rows there will hopefully be only one column that is different and that should be the Auto incremented id field.
What I need to do is check to see if these rows ARE actually the same and if there are any that have any differences in any of the fields.
So for example, if the "Name" column is supposed to be "Peter, Paul and Mary" and the "Order #" column is supposed to be "132" I need to find any rows where those values aren't true, but I need to find it for every column in the table AND I don't actually know what the correct values are (meaning I can't just create a "SELECT...WHERE Name='This'" for each column).
So how can I find the rows that are different? (using straight SQL, no programming)

A: If you know the limit of the wrong results (say 10 for example) then you could order them and get only the first 11 results. You see where I am going with this, right?
I have no SQL expertise whatsoever though :)

A: Do you need to do this programmatically, or can you just run a few queries yourself to check it?
If the latter, I'd just do "select distinct name, order#" to start.  This should return a list that includes "Peter Paul and Mary, 132" and possibly some other things.
Then find the other things by doing select ... where name = "this" as you suggest.
You could get even more info out of that first query by doing "select distinct name, order#, count(*) from ... group by name, order#".  This would give you both the list of values and the frequency of a given set of values.

A: if I understand you correctly, (your question is not 100% clear to me), you are tryin g to find the rows that are unnecessary duplicates ? If so, Try these SQL queries:
Select A.Id, B.Id
From Table A
   Join Table B
     On A.Id <> B.Id
       And A.ColA = B.ColA
       And A.ColB = B.Col
       And A.ColC = B.ColC
        ...

Or
 Select ColA, ColB, etc.
 From Table
 Group By ColA, ColB, etc.
 Having Count(*) > 1

A: Would you think this answer is what you are looking for and would help you? here's a Link to find the appropriate sql query.

Let's suppose you coded a email newsletter signup form, but you forgot to double check that the email address was not a duplicate, or already in the database. We can write a query to find all the emails in our table that are duplicates, or occurs in more than one row.
The following SQL query works great for finding duplicate values in a table.
SELECT email,
 COUNT(email) AS NumOccurrences
FROM users
GROUP BY email
HAVING ( COUNT(email) > 1 )

By using group by and then having a count greater than one, we find rows with with duplicate email addresses using the above SQL.
Blockquote

A: If you have a correlation between two "independent" columns where there is really only one "correct" value for column B whenever column A is a given value, then you have a broken database design, because these correlation should have been factored out as a separate table.

A: Try this:
SELECT Name, OrderNum
FROM Orders T1
FULL OUTER JOIN (
    SELECT Name, OrderNum
    FROM Orders
    GROUP BY Name, OrderNum
    HAVING COUNT(*) > 1) T2
    ON T1.Name = T2.Name
        AND T1.OrderNum = T2.OrderNum

The nested select is identifying the duplicates, so you will need to target your common fields, the FULL OUTER JOIN excludes the duplicates from your result set.  So essentially you are joining the table on itself to identify the duplicates and exclude them from your results.  If you want only the duplicates then change the FULL OUTER JOIN to just JOIN.


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WHAT PHOTOGRAPHY EQUIPMENT & SCUBA GEAR WILL YOU USE?
From simple point-and-shoot cameras to more high-end equipment that shoots high-definition images, you'll find a system that meets your video and photography needs.
With the rise of digital photography capabilities, there are now numerous options for capturing images underwater. From simple point-and-shoot cameras that take both photographs and video to more high-end equipment that shoots high-definition images, you're sure to find a system that meets your needs. Talk to our our instructors to get advice about underwater imaging equipment.
Underwater housing – Although some cameras are water resistant to very shallow depths, none can perform at scuba diving depths without an underwater housing to protect them from water and pressure. There are camera housings that mount on masks, and others that can be attached almost anywhere.
Point-and-shoot – Compact, easy-to-use cameras designed for casual, fun pictures or videos. Smartphones and tablets fall into this category with the release of underwater housings for many models.
dSLRs – Digital SLR (Single Lens Reflex) cameras are for those who are serious about photography. They have multiple lenses and other accessories that make shooting more productive and convenient.
Full-featured – These cameras bridge the gap between point-and-shoot and dSLRs by offering a moderately compact, easy-to-use camera with many features of a dSLR.
Manual white balance – Allows you to adjust for more realistic color.
External flash – A separate strobe underwater provides more light from a better angle.
Full control access –The more controls your housing provides, the more options you have while shooting.
Wide-angle adapter – This allows you to use a wide-angle lens. Nearly all dSLR systems have this capability.
Large memory card – You want enough capacity to shoot as much as you can on a single dive without concern about running out of memory.
Start by taking the PADI Digital Underwater Photographer course, which helps you determine which system best suits your needs and interests.
Ask yourself why you want to take underwater images, and of what?
If you already have a camera you enjoy using, check if an underwater housing exists for it. If not, shop for your camera, housing, lenses and strobes or other accessories together.
Consider all the features starting with size. Then consider how much control you want, not just now, but as your passion for underwater imaging grows.
Make sure your personal computer and software will work with your camera system and matches your interest in editing photos.
Have a camera bag or padded case to protect your imaging gear.
Use a port cover to protect the lens port before getting in the water and as soon as you get out, before your housing goes into the rinse bucket.
After a dive, rinse the system thoroughly in fresh water, ideally by swishing it back and forth in a clean rinse bucket.
Thoroughly dry the housing before opening it. You also need to be dry so you don't drip water into the housing and onto your camera.
Store your camera system in a cool, dry place out of direct sunlight. If you won't be using it for a while, remove large o-rings from housing and remove batteries from the camera.
This option is for continuing dive education only to students with Openwater Diver Certification and certified Freediver from any dive organization. Discover Scuba Diving or any Trial Scuba experiance program (certified within 3 month period) may also enroll for this course.
Support hardware as necessary, including but not limited to camera batteries, memory cards, o-ring lubricant, etc.
A computer, printer or other device (other than the camera) suitable for viewing digital images.
Its easy and fun with our combo Digital Underwater Photographer Course + Discover Scuba Diving experience program.
There are no specific performance requirements for this experience, however participants know how to aim, focus and take the picture, they'll have fun and you've met the objective of the experience.
This is a simple experience that consists of providing participants with digital underwater cameras that are prepared in advance. Students will had an opportunity to read the PADI Digital Underwater Photographer Manual in advance.


text:
\section{Introduction}
During the last decade, deep learning has achieved high accuracy in many tasks and plays an important role in a wide range of applications, including image recognition and natural language processing.
However, several studies have reported that deep learning models perform poorly in expressing the uncertainty about out-of-distribution data \cite{Gal2016Uncertainty, kendall2017, 10.5555/3454287.3455541, 42503}.
Making wrong predictions with overconfidence is a critical drawback in applications where prediction reliability should be considered, such as medical diagnosis or image recognition in automated driving \cite{ijcai2017-661}.
Therefore, uncertainty quantification in machine learning is an increasingly important area for the safety of artificial intelligence systems.
In the case of medical diagnosis, if a model can express uncertainty, we can ask for expert judgment when the model says, ``I don't know.''

A Bayesian neural network (BNN) is one of the key frameworks that can handle epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties to mitigate the overconfidence problem.
Aleatoric uncertainty is the uncertainty inherent in data and appears when the data contain some noise, such as coin tosses.
This type of uncertainty can be captured by modeling the noise in the data, as described in Section \ref{sec:method}.
Epistemic uncertainty can be defined as ignorance about the model and appears when the input data are different from the training data \footnote{For example, in the case of inputting an image of a horse to the trained model that classifies dogs and cats.}.
In non-BNNs, we select one model that fits finite training data.
On the other hand, BNNs consider several models that fit the training data by assuming the probability distributions over the models to capture the epistemic uncertainty.

The most well-known inference method of BNN is variational inference (VI) \cite{10.5555/3045118.3045290, Kingma2014, pmlr-v32-rezende14, Gal2016a}.
In VI, we approximate the posterior distribution of the weights by using tractable parametric distributions, such as a Gaussian or a Bernoulli distribution.
The predictive distribution of the test input data is given by Monte Carlo (MC) sampling.
However, this procedure requires forward propagation multiple times, which can be a serious drawback in applications requiring low latency.

Another proposed method, deterministic variational inference (DVI) \cite{DVI}, does not rely on MC sampling but instead performs moment propagation to derive the predictive distribution and objective function.
In DVI, the outputs of intermediate layers are represented as random variables and propagate these first and second moments.
However, it is difficult to calculate these moments analytically for nonlinear functions such as a rectified linear unit (ReLU) or a sigmoid function.
Therefore, DVI requires Taylor expansion, which is computationally expensive.
ReLU is a simple function that rounds up negative values to zero for deterministic inputs.
However, when the input is a random variable, these nonlinear functions are inappropriate for introducing nonlinearity because a computationally expensive approximation is required to derive these moments.

In this paper, we propose a new nonlinear function named moment propagating-Gaussian error linear unit (MP-GELU), a natural extension of GELU \cite{gelu}.
(i) MP-GELU realizes to derive the intermediate moments analytically in the nonlinear function with less computational complexity.
We also show that (ii) MP-GELU naturally introduces the mean and variance of the distribution function into the training, which are the hyperparameters in GELU.
The results of our empirical experiments demonstrate that (iii) the proposed method provides higher prediction accuracy and better quality of uncertainty with faster inference than those of ReLU-based BNNs in regression tasks.

\section{Methods}
\label{sec:method}
In this section, we formulate the objective function and the predictive distribution of BNNs in regression tasks.
Then, we describe the detailed procedures to calculate the objective function and the predictive distribution using moment propagation instead of MC sampling.
In Section \ref{sec:MP-GELU}, we describe MP-GELU nonlinearity, the proposal in this paper.
In the following, let $D$ be the training data, $\bm{x} \in \mathbb{R}^Q$ be the $Q$-dimensional features of the input, and $y \in \mathbb{R}$ be the label of the output.
Let $\bm{w}$ be the weight parameter of the BNN.
We denote an $N \times N$ matrix with diagonal elements $(a_1, a_2, ..., a_N)$ as $\text{diag}(a_1, a_2, ..., a_N)$.

\subsection{Objective function and predictive distribution}
\label{sec:objective}

The goal of the training is to obtain the posterior distribution of weights $p(\bm{w}|D)$; however, it is difficult to solve it analytically.
Therefore VI searches instead for a distribution $q(\bm{w})$ that approximates $p(\bm{w}|D)$ well.
Here, we consider BNNs with a two-dimensional output $\bm h = (h_1, h_2)$ to model the mean and variance of the outputs.
This means that the predictive distribution of the output $y$ conditioned by $\bm h$ is modeled as $p(y | \bm{h}) = N(y | h_1, e^{h_2})$.
In this way, we can capture the heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainty.

The objective function here is an expected log-likelihood.
We can compute the expected log-likelihood given the data $D$ as follows, as shown in \cite{DVI}:

\begin{equation}
    \mathbb{E}_{\bm{w} \sim q}[\log p(y|\bm{x}, \bm{w})] = \mathbb{E}_{\bm{h} \sim N(\mathbb{E}[h], \Sigma)}[\log p(y |\bm{h})] = - \frac{1}{2}  \{ \log 2 \pi + \mathbb{E}[h_1] + \frac{\Sigma _{1, 1} + (\mathbb{E}[h_1] - \Sigma _{1, 2} - y)^2 }{e^{\mathbb{E}[h_2] - \Sigma _{2, 2} / 2}} \}.
    \label{eq:ll}
\end{equation}

Here, $h$ is the output random variable of the last layer, which follows a multivariate Gaussian distribution.
$\Sigma$ is the covariance matrix of $\bm{h}$, and $\Sigma _{i, j}$ is the $(i, j)$th element of $\Sigma$.
We optimize the approximated posterior distribution $q(\bm{w})$ by maximizing equation (\ref{eq:ll}).
Like the expected log-likelihood, the predictive distribution $p(y|\bm{x})$ can be computed by marginalizing over $\bm{h}$.

In this paper, we calculate the objective function and the predictive distribution using moment propagation instead of MC sampling.
With MC sampling, the statistics of $\bm{h}$ in equation (\ref{eq:ll}) are estimated from the samples of $\bm{h}$.
On the other hand, with moment propagation, the statistics $\mathbb{E}[h]$ and $\mathbb{V}[h]$ are calculated directly.
For example, the moments of a matrix product of $\bm{h'} = \bm{w}\bm{h}$ are $\mathbb{E}[\bm{h'}] = \mathbb{E}[\bm{w}] \mathbb{E}[\bm{h}]$ and $\text{Cov}[h'_k, h'_l] = \sum _{i, j} \mathbb{E}[h_i, h_j] \text{Cov}[w_{ki}, w_{lj}] + \mathbb{E}[w_{ki}] \text{Cov} [h_i, h_l] \mathbb{E} [w_{lj}]$.
Here, we use the independency between $h$ and $w$.
In the case of a BNN with a dropout layer \cite{Gal2016a, NIPS2015_5666, 10.5555/3305890.3305939, NIPS2017_84ddfb34, Gal2016Bayesian}, the matrix product in a dense layer can be simplified because the weights in the dense layers are not random variables.
In the dropout layer with a dropout rate $p$, we can compute the output random variable as $\bm{h'}=\text{diag}(\epsilon_1, ..., \epsilon_n) \bm{h}$, where $\epsilon _i \sim \text{Bernoulli}(1 - p)$ independently.
Then, we can compute the moments of $\bm{h'}$ in the same way as for dense layers.

As described above, the moments of the output of each layer can be calculated up to the final layer; the problem, however, is the nonlinear function.
As discussed in Section \ref{sec:related_work}, it is computationally inefficient to derive the moments of the output of ReLU, which requires an approximation of the Taylor expansion \cite{DVI}.
Therefore, instead of using a ReLU function, this paper proposes MP-GELU as a nonlinear function suitable for moment propagation.

\subsection{MP-GELU nonlinearity}
\label{sec:MP-GELU}

GELU \cite{gelu} is an activation function that combines a stochastic regularization method and a nonlinear transformation for non-BNNs.
Let $h \in \mathbb{R}$ be an input of GELU and $\epsilon \sim \text{Bernoulli} (\Phi (h))$ be a latent random variable.
Here, $\Phi$ is a cumulative distribution function (CDF) of a standard Gaussian distribution.
Note that $h$ is not a random variable here.
The product of $h$ and $\epsilon$ is less likely to be dropped if the value of $h$ is large.
The reason is that, if $\Phi (h)$ approaches 1, $\epsilon$ has a high probability of being 1.
Conversely, if the value of $h$ is small, $h$ is more likely to drop to 0.

The product of $h$ and $\epsilon$ is a random variable; however, in \cite{gelu}, the stochastic behavior is ignored and only the expected value of $h \cdot \epsilon$ is calculated, as in the following equation:

\begin{equation}
  \text{GELU}(h) = \mathbb{E}[h \cdot \epsilon] = h \cdot p(X \leq h) = h \cdot \Phi(h).
\end{equation}

Here, $X$ is a random variable that follows a standard Gaussian distribution.
Thus, GELU introduces nonlinearity by using the CDF of the standard Gaussian distribution.
The choice of the CDF is treated as a hyperparameter in \cite{gelu}.
Note that GELU nonlinearity was originally proposed as an activation function for non-BNNs.
Therefore, the output is assumed to be treated as a definite value.

In this paper, we extended GELU, named MP-GELU, with the idea of using it as an activation function for BNNs, especially in the case of moment propagation.
The major advantages of this proposal are that (i) the parameters of the CDF are determined automatically by the input statistics and (ii) the output moments can be derived analytically after the calculation of the dropout rate.

MP-GELU uses the statistics of the input random variables to calculate the probability that the input is dropped or not.
On the assumption that the random variables in the dense layers follow a Gaussian distribution \footnote{This assumption also requires other nonlinear functions}, the probability that the random variable $h \sim N(h | \mu, \sigma ^2)$ is less than or equal to zero is

\begin{equation}
  p(h \leq 0) = \int_{-\infty}^{0} p(h) dh = \Phi(-\mu / \sigma).
  \label{eq:dropoutrate}
\end{equation}

We use this value as a dropout rate.
Like in GELU, the CDF of the Gaussian distribution is used to determine the dropout rate.
However, the parameters of the CDF, which are treated as hyperparameters in GELU, are obtained as a byproduct of the moment propagation.
A notable feature of MP-GELU is that it does not apply a nonlinear transformation to random variables but rather to the statistics of random variables.

After obtaining the dropout rate in equation (\ref{eq:dropoutrate}), we derive the moments of the MP-GELU output $h' = h \cdot \epsilon$.
Written in vector notation, this is equal to $\bm{h'} = \text{diag}(\epsilon_1, \epsilon_2, ..., \epsilon_n)\bm{h}$, where $n$ is the dimension of input $h$, $h\sim N(h|\mu_i, \sigma_i ^2)$, $\epsilon_i \sim \text{Bernoulli}(1 - \Phi(-\mu_i/ \sigma_i))$.
The moments of $\bm{h'}$ can be obtained using the same procedure as described in Section \ref{sec:objective}.
Here, we can assume the independence between $\bm{h}$ and $\bm{\epsilon}$.
The reason is that $\bm{\epsilon}$ only depends on the statistics of $\bm{h}$ and not on the observed $\bm{h}$.

In MP-GELU, the dropout rate is obtained by equation (\ref{eq:dropoutrate}).
If we assume that the variance of each input random variable is 1, the dropout rate will be $\Phi(-\mu)$.
This is the same dropout rate derived in GELU.
In GELU, the input is dropped with a probability of $\Phi(-h)$, where $\Phi(-h)$ is the probability that a Gaussian random variable with mean $h$ and variance of 1 falls below 0.
This shows that MP-GELU is a natural extension of GELU.
Furthermore, if we consider the limit of $\sigma \rightarrow 0$ in GELU, this is equal to ReLU, as shown in \cite{gelu}.
The reason is that ReLU only uses the sign of the input to decide whether to drop or not.

\section{Related works}
\label{sec:related_work}
There are several prior studies on moment propagation in BNNs.
Wu et al. \cite{DVI} proposed BNNs that assume a Gaussian distribution for the weights and derived its moments including the ReLU and sigmoid nonlinearity.
In these nonlinear functions, Taylor expansion is required to calculate the full covariance matrix.
Brach et al. \cite{DBLP:journals/corr/abs-2007-03293} proposed a moment propagation method for BNNs with a dropout layer.
They considered the ReLU nonlinearity and diagonal approximation of the covariance matrix.
In the case of the diagonal approximation, the variance can be calculated analytically instead of ignoring the correlation of activations.

These prior studies mainly focused on how to derive moments in existing layers, such as a dense layer or a ReLU nonlinearity, and did not consider what types of layers are suitable for moment propagation.
However, calculating the moments in these nonlinear functions requires series expansions, which increase the computational complexity.
Therefore, we propose MP-GELU, a nonlinear function suitable for moment propagation.
The amounts of computations required for the MP-GELU and ReLU layers are summarized in Table \ref{tab:comp_comp}.

\begin{table}[h]
  \centering
  \begin{tabular}{ccccc}
  \hline
  Operation                               & MP-GELU (Full)       & ReLU (Full)       & MP-GELU (Diagonal)          & ReLU (Diagonal)          \\ \hline
  Add/Mul                                 &    $O(n^2)$          &    $O(n^2)$            &    $O(n)$          & $O(n)$               \\
  Sqrt/Exp/Erf/Arcsine                     &    $O(n)$            &    $O(n^2)$            &    $O(n)$          &    $O(n)$         \\ \hline
  \end{tabular}
  \caption{Comparison of the number of operations required for MP-GELU and ReLU nonlinearity.
  $n$ is the dimension of the input vector.
  The covariance matrices of activations are computed for all elements in `Full,' whereas `Diagonal' approximates these matrices using diagonal matrices.
  }
  \label{tab:comp_comp}
  \end{table}

In the case of no approximation, MP-GELU requires less computation than ReLU.
In the case of the diagonal approximation, the computational order is the same.
However, as shown in Section \ref{sec:experiments}, MP-GELU is faster than ReLU with a diagonal approximation.
This is because the roles of the dropout layer and nonlinear functions are realized by a single MP-GELU.

\section{Experiments}
\label{sec:experiments}
In this section, we assess the performance of MP-GELU compared with ReLU in several regression tasks.
In Section \ref{sec:toydata}, we qualitatively evaluate whether two types of uncertainty can be captured by the proposed method on a toy dataset.
In Section \ref{sec:UCIdata}, we quantitatively evaluate the predictive uncertainty, accuracy, and runtime of the two methods on several UCI datasets \cite{Dua:2019}.

Both models compute the expected log-likelihood and predictive distribution deterministically using moment propagation.
The difference between the two models is the choice of the nonlinear function: MP-GELU or ReLU.
MP-GELU-based BNNs use the dropout layer only in the first layer, whereas ReLU-based BNNs use the dropout layer before each dense layer \footnote{The MP-GELU nonlinearity plays the roles of both the dropout layer and nonlinear function; however, in the case where the input is not a random variable, the dropout rate cannot be calculated as in equation \ref{eq:dropoutrate}. Therefore, we use the dropout layer in the first layer to introduce perturbation.}.
The network structures are shown in Tables \ref{tab:MP-gelu} and \ref{tab:relu}.

\begin{table}[h]
  \centering
  \begin{tabular}{cccccccc}
  \hline
  Layer        & Input & Dropout & Dense & MP-GELU & Dense & MP-GELU & Dense \\
  Output shape & Q     & 20      & 20    & 20      & 20    & 20      & 2     \\ \hline
  \end{tabular}
  \caption{Network structure of the MP-GELU-based BNN }
  \label{tab:MP-gelu}
\end{table}

\begin{table}[h]
  \centering
  \begin{tabular}{cccccccccc}
  \hline
  Layer        & Input & Dropout & Dense & ReLU & Dropout & Dense & ReLU & Dropout & Dense \\
  Output shape & Q     & 20      & 20    & 20   & 20      & 20    & 20   & 20      & 2    \\ \hline
  \end{tabular}
  \caption{Network structure of the ReLU-based BNN}
  \label{tab:relu}
\end{table}

The output of the network has two units because the mean and variance of the predictive distribution are modeled at the same time, as explained in Section \ref{sec:method}.
We use a dropout layer in the first layer to introduce perturbation into MP-GELU-based BNN.
Another option is to insert GELU (not MP) into the first layer; however, we find that it degrades the predictive performance.
Therefore, we introduce perturbations using the dropout layer in the experiments.

We can apply MP-GELU as a nonlinear function regardless of the approximate posterior distribution of the weights.
However, in this paper, we chose a BNN with a dropout layer for the experiments for the following reasons: (i) it is easy to compute the covariance matrix in the dense layer because the weight parameters are not random variables in BNNs with a dropout layer, (ii) it has been reported that BNNs with a dropout layer perform better than BNNs with a Gaussian distribution \cite{nado2021uncertainty}, and (iii) it prevents the increase of hyperparameters for the training \footnote{For example, the initializer of the mean and variance for the weights.}.

\subsection{Toy dataset}
\label{sec:toydata}

In this section, we qualitatively assess whether MP-GELU and ReLU can capture the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty on a toy dataset.
We generated the toy datasets using the following equations:
\begin{gather*}
  y_i = \sin (2 x_i) \cdot \cos(7 x_i) + \epsilon _i \\
  \epsilon_i \sim N(\epsilon_i | 0, (\sin x_i)^2) \\
  x_i \sim U(-0.5, 0.5)
\end{gather*}
To generate data with a heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainty, we added $\epsilon_i$ as noise, which depends on the input $x_i$.
The training data were sampled from a uniform distribution $U[-0.5, 0.5]$, and the test data were in the range of $[-1, 1]$ to intentionally generate an out-of-distribution dataset.
There were 100 data in the training set.

In the training, we used stochastic gradient descent (SGD) as an optimizer.
The learning rate was set to 0.1, and the training epoch was 1000.
The batch size was 100 for both methods.
The dropout rate was set to 0.001 for both methods.
In both methods, the covariance matrix is fully computed without a diagonal approximation.

\begin{figure}[h]
    \centering
  \begin{minipage}[b]{0.49\linewidth}
    \includegraphics[scale=0.53]{media/regression_relu0.01_full_OU2.pdf}
  \end{minipage}
  \begin{minipage}[b]{0.49\linewidth}
    \includegraphics[scale=0.53]{media/regression_gelu0.01_full_OU2.pdf}
  \end{minipage}
  \caption{Predictive distributions of the ReLU-based BNN (left) and the MP-GELU-based BNN (right).
  The blue crosses denote the training data, and the blue curve is the true function that generates the training data.
  The orange dashed line is the mean of the prediction, and the orange-filled region shows the standard deviations ($\sigma, 2\sigma, ..., 4\sigma$) of the predictive distribution.
  }
  \label{fig:toydata}
\end{figure}

Figure \ref{fig:toydata} shows the predictive distribution of a ReLU-based BNN and an MP-GELU-based BNN.
As shown in Figure \ref{fig:toydata}, both methods have a higher variance in regions where there are no training data, such as in $[-1, -0.5]$ or $[0.5, 1]$.
This indicates that they can capture the epistemic uncertainty.
In a region $[-0.5, 0.5]$ where the training data exist, we can observe that these methods capture the data-dependent noise.
The above qualitative results on the toy dataset show that the MP-GELU-based BNN can capture the two types of uncertainty as efficiently as the ReLU-based BNN.

\subsection{UCI datasets}
\label{sec:UCIdata}
In this section, we assess the MP-GELU-based and ReLU-based BNNs on several UCI datasets \cite{Dua:2019}.
The network structures are the same as in Section \ref{sec:toydata}.
We provide the detailed settings, such as the hyperparameters, dataset partitioning, and preprocessing, in Appendix \ref{sec:uci_setting}.
The evaluation metrics are the negative log-likelihood (NLL), root mean squared error (RMSE), and runtime.
For these metrics, the lower the better.
Runtime is the required time to perform inference on the test data.

\begin{table}[ht]
\centering
\small
\begin{tabular}{ccccccccc}
\hline
\multirow{2}{*}{} & \multirow{2}{*}{$N$} & \multirow{2}{*}{$Q$} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Test NLL} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Test RMSE} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Test runtime [s]} \\
 &  &  & MP-GELU & ReLU & MP-GELU & ReLU & MP-GELU & ReLU \\ \hline
Boston    & 506 & 13 & 1.204 $\pm$ 0.029 & 1.25 $\pm$ 0.027 & 0.786 $\pm$ 0.04 & 0.809 $\pm$ 0.039 & 0.016 & 0.021 \\
Concrete  & 1,030 & 8 & 1.118 $\pm$ 0.022& 1.137 $\pm$ 0.021 & 0.742 $\pm$ 0.016 & 0.748 $\pm$ 0.016 & 0.017 & 0.021 \\
Energy    & 768 & 8 & 0.621 $\pm$ 0.049 & 0.649 $\pm$ 0.047 & 0.46 $\pm$ 0.023 & 0.464 $\pm$ 0.023 & 0.017 & 0022 \\
Kin8nm    & 8,192 & 8 & 0.785 $\pm$ 0.014 & 0.815 $\pm$ 0.013 & 0.561 $\pm$ 0.007 & 0.567 $\pm$ 0.007 & 0.039 & 0.058 \\
Naval     & 11,934 & 16 & 1.21 $\pm$ 0.02 & 1.228 $\pm$ 0.017 & 0.785 $\pm$ 0.022 & 0.794 $\pm$ 0.019 & 0.048 & 0.071 \\
Power     & 9,568 & 4 & 0.035 $\pm$ 0.07 & 0.06 $\pm$ 0.006  & 0.247 $\pm$ 0.002 & 0.246 $\pm$ 0.002 & 0.04 & 0.06 \\
Protein   & 45,730 & 9 & 1.123 $\pm$ 0.01& 1.131 $\pm$ 0.007 & 0.789 $\pm$ 0.003 & 0.793 $\pm$ 0.003 & 0.146 & 0.232 \\
Wine      & 1,599 & 11 & 1.249 $\pm$ 0.016 & 1.252 $\pm$ 0.016 & 0.848 $\pm 0.013 $& 0.849 $\pm$ 0.013 & 0.017 & 0.022 \\
Yacht     & 308 & 6 & 1.307 $\pm$ 0.046 & 1.333 $\pm$ 0.043& 0.879 $\pm$ 0.045 &0.892 $\pm$ 0.044 & 0.016 & 0.021 \\ \hline
\end{tabular}
\caption{
Performance of the MP-GELU-based and ReLU-based BNNs.
$N$ is the data size and $Q$ is the dimension of the features of each dataset.
We show the mean and standard error for each indicator.
The standard error of the test runtime is omitted because of its smallness.
}
\label{tab:uci1}
\end{table}

Table \ref{tab:uci1} shows the results for each dataset.
As shown in the table, MP-GELU performs better than ReLU in terms of both NLL and RMSE in almost all datasets.
A possible explanation for these results is that, as noted in \cite{gelu}, there is a curvature for positive values in GELU, which may allow it to approximate more complex functions than those of ReLU.
The runtimes for MP-GELU are, on average, $27\% $ faster than those of ReLU.
This is because MP-GELU is less computationally expensive than ReLU, as shown in Table \ref{tab:comp_comp}.
In Appendix \ref{sec:appendix_uci}, we show the results of the other settings, e.g., prediction with a single output, and approximate the covariance matrix using a diagonal matrix.
In these settings, we also observed that MP-GELU-based BNNs perform better than ReLU-based BNNs.

\section{Conclusion}
We have presented MP-GELU, a nonlinear function that enables the straightforward derivation of moments in BNNs.
Whereas previous studies focused on how to derive the moments of existing layers, this paper focused on the ease of moment propagation and showed that moments can be derived analytically by extending GELU.
MP-GELU enables the analytical computation of moments by applying nonlinear functions to input statistics, thereby reducing the computationally expensive functions required for nonlinear functions.

In the empirical experiments, we observed that the proposed MP-GELU-based BNN achieves higher prediction accuracy and better quality of uncertainty than those of the BNN with ReLU nonlinearity.
Furthermore, the proposed method was able to perform up to $27\%$ faster inference than that of ReLU-based BNNs.

\section*{Acknowledgments}
This work was supported by JST PRESTO JPMJPR18M9, JST CREST JPMJCR21D2, and JSPS KAKENHI grant no. JP21J20357.

\bibliographystyle{unsrt}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaArXiv


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Thatch wall detaill at rear entrance. The Enterprise Centre UEA, Norwich, United Kingdom. Architect: Architype Limited, 2015.
Approach to Enterprise Centre's main entrance. The Enterprise Centre UEA, Norwich, United Kingdom. Architect: Architype Limited, 2015.
Perspective along thatch facade with trees. The Enterprise Centre UEA, Norwich, United Kingdom. Architect: Architype Limited, 2015.
Entrance foyer - ground floor. The Enterprise Centre UEA, Norwich, United Kingdom. Architect: Architype Limited, 2015.
Exterior thatch facade from street. The Enterprise Centre UEA, Norwich, United Kingdom. Architect: Architype Limited, 2015.
Foyer with cafe -view from above. The Enterprise Centre UEA, Norwich, United Kingdom. Architect: Architype Limited, 2015.
Office space in use. The Enterprise Centre UEA, Norwich, United Kingdom. Architect: Architype Limited, 2015.
Entrance foyer with cafe area. The Enterprise Centre UEA, Norwich, United Kingdom. Architect: Architype Limited, 2015.
Rear entrance viewed from park. The Enterprise Centre UEA, Norwich, United Kingdom. Architect: Architype Limited, 2015.
Detail view of thatch facade from nearby park. The Enterprise Centre UEA, Norwich, United Kingdom. Architect: Architype Limited, 2015.
Detail in office space. The Enterprise Centre UEA, Norwich, United Kingdom. Architect: Architype Limited, 2015.
Facade elevation on Chelsea Manor Street. 224 - 226 Kings Road, London, United Kingdom. Architect: Horden Cherry Lee Architects Ltd, 2018.
Detail of ground floor interior under construction. 224 - 226 Kings Road, London, United Kingdom. Architect: Horden Cherry Lee Architects Ltd, 2018.
Ground floor interior under construction. 224 - 226 Kings Road, London, United Kingdom. Architect: Horden Cherry Lee Architects Ltd, 2018.
Intersection King's Road and Chelsea Manor Street. 224 - 226 Kings Road, London, United Kingdom. Architect: Horden Cherry Lee Architects Ltd, 2018.
Front elevation King's Road. 224 - 226 Kings Road, London, United Kingdom. Architect: Horden Cherry Lee Architects Ltd, 2018.
Stacked tiles of east elevation. Serpentine Summer Pavilion 2018, London, United Kingdom. Architect: Frida Escobedo, 2018.
View from north. Serpentine Summer Pavilion 2018, London, United Kingdom. Architect: Frida Escobedo, 2018.
General view from north. Serpentine Summer Pavilion 2018, London, United Kingdom. Architect: Frida Escobedo, 2018.
Stacked tiles detail. Serpentine Summer Pavilion 2018, London, United Kingdom. Architect: Frida Escobedo, 2018.
Inside pavilion looking to Serpentine Gallery with people. Serpentine Summer Pavilion 2018, London, United Kingdom. Architect: Frida Escobedo, 2018.
View of eastern entrance. Serpentine Summer Pavilion 2018, London, United Kingdom. Architect: Frida Escobedo, 2018.
Stacked tiles detail with shadow. Serpentine Summer Pavilion 2018, London, United Kingdom. Architect: Frida Escobedo, 2018.
Detail of slanted glass paneling. Carmen Würth Forum, Künzelsau-Gaisbach, Germany. Architect: David Chipperfield Architects Ltd, 2017.
Cafe area. Carmen Würth Forum, Künzelsau-Gaisbach, Germany. Architect: David Chipperfield Architects Ltd, 2017.
Dusk elevation with sculpture. Carmen Würth Forum, Künzelsau-Gaisbach, Germany. Architect: David Chipperfield Architects Ltd, 2017.
Detail of wood grain in multifunctional hall. Carmen Würth Forum, Künzelsau-Gaisbach, Germany. Architect: David Chipperfield Architects Ltd, 2017.
Stairway in Chamber music hall. Carmen Würth Forum, Künzelsau-Gaisbach, Germany. Architect: David Chipperfield Architects Ltd, 2017.
Detail in Chamber music hall. Carmen Würth Forum, Künzelsau-Gaisbach, Germany. Architect: David Chipperfield Architects Ltd, 2017.
Plaza and main entrance viewed from west. Carmen Würth Forum, Künzelsau-Gaisbach, Germany. Architect: David Chipperfield Architects Ltd, 2017.
Detail of wood grain in Chamber music hall. Carmen Würth Forum, Künzelsau-Gaisbach, Germany. Architect: David Chipperfield Architects Ltd, 2017.
Chamber music hall. Carmen Würth Forum, Künzelsau-Gaisbach, Germany. Architect: David Chipperfield Architects Ltd, 2017.
View along glass facade towrads Würth premises. Carmen Würth Forum, Künzelsau-Gaisbach, Germany. Architect: David Chipperfield Architects Ltd, 2017.


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By John Morales
Follow @JohnMoralesNBC6
John Morales is chief meteorologist at WTVJ NBC-6 in Miami FL and the founder of ClimaData, a small commercial weather firm. He is the longest-tenured broadcast meteorologist in South Florida.
Fewer Hurricanes? Bring It On!
I'll never forget 2005. My exhaustion was like nothing I had felt before. I was chief meteorologist of Telemundo 51 in Miami, a tropically-aware city where any disturbance in the Atlantic basin – even when it's 3,000 miles away – is news.
That hyperactive hurricane season yielded 28 tropical storms, including infamous Katrina as well as the last major hurricane to strike the United States – Wilma. Both of those hurricanes made landfall in South Florida. I had to help prepare my family, guide an audience through the threats, and then deal with all the difficulties of the aftermaths. Mother Nature didn't care, though. Even after Wilma, another half-dozen new storms formed. All of those were named using the Greek alphabet (Alpha through Zeta) because the normal list of names had run out. By the end of the season I was mentally drained, and even felt a degree of physical exhaustion.
Many more active seasons followed. Fifteen or more tropical storms formed in 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012, which included another infamous system named Sandy. Since then, we've seen the number of tropical cyclones, especially the number of hurricanes, diminish considerably. For example, after 2012's 10 hurricanes, 2013 only yielded two; 2014's totals were eight storms and six hurricanes. So far in 2015 we've had seven tropical storms and two hurricanes (with a strong El Niño).
Earlier this month, colleagues from Colorado State University (CSU), led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, proposed that the most recent cycle of hurricane hyperactivity in the Atlantic might have come to an end. The natural cycle of Atlantic tropical activity is controlled by the salinity of the water in the North Atlantic. Salty water is heavier and sinks more rapidly, which accelerates a conveyor belt of ocean currents known as the thermohaline circulation (THC).
When this worldwide circulation is moving a bit faster, warm (less dense) water remains near the surface and is heated by the sun. This results in a period of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the main tropical cyclone development region (MDR) of the Atlantic basin between Africa and the Caribbean, which leads to a higher number of storms and hurricanes. Each period of warmer water in the MDR tends to last 25 years, followed by another 25 years of cooler sea surface temperatures. But, this being a natural process, the cycle doesn't always last exactly two and a half decades. Some cycles can be shorter, some longer.
Klotzbach and the CSU team have observed more fresh (less salty) water in the North Atlantic near Greenland in recent years. In addition, the number and intensity of storms is decreasing. The amount of wind energy as calculated by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index has dropped considerably since 2012, and contrasts sharply with that observed in the 1995-2012 active period.
So, can I thank my lucky stars and look forward to 20 or 30 years of relative inactivity in the Atlantic? Not so fast! Another prominent hurricane researcher – Kerry Emanuel from MIT – has challenged Klotzbach because he doesn't believe in the connection between ocean temperature and salinity. Emanuel thinks that quiet decades in the 1970's and 1980's were connected to pollution in the atmosphere, which cut down on solar radiation and kept the ocean surface cooler. The air is much cleaner nowadays (believe it or not), and therefore more solar radiation is warming the sea surface.
Either way, I'm always reminded that it only takes one hurricane to cause ruin. Regardless of how active or inactive the next few years are, Miamians will always have to be prepared for hurricanes. Regardless of where you are, preparedness is everyone's responsibility.
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Overall hurricane trends are up. The recent National Climate Assessment reports that over the past three decades, "the intensity, frequency and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest hurricanes, have all increased." MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel began looking at this effect back in 2005, when he
Atlantic Hurricane Season
September 10 marks the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Based on data gathered since 1851, it's been more likely for a hurricane [or tropical storm] to be active on this date than on any other in the entire season — from June 1 to November 30. Climate scientists, meanwhile, take a longer view: how will hurricane numbers and
Tropical Trends: Hurricanes and Climate Change
The Atlantic Hurricane season officially begins this Sunday, June 1, but statistically doesn't ramp up until August and September. In the graphic below, you will see that the peak day for hurricanes in the Atlantic basin is September 10. With the likely onset and intensification of El Nino, which tends to lessen the impact on the Atlantic
Weather Extremes: Hurricanes
Even in seasons with only a few named storms, hurricanes can cause catastrophic damage if they make landfall. Are we likely to get even more, or bigger, tropical storms in a world affected by global warming? Here's Bernadette Woods Placky on what we know about climate change and hurricanes.
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Whitman, Requardt & Associates, LLP (WRA) is a full-service, multi-disciplinary engineering, architectural, and planning firm that provides planning, design, and construction management services. With a professional staff of over 600, the firm's services are focused on the needs of governmental, educational, institutional, and private sector clients primarily in the Mid-Atlantic region. Headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland with offices in Delaware, Maine, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia, WRA is ranked as a Top 115 Design Firm, Top 200 Architectural Firm, and Top 200 Environmental Firm by Engineering News Record. Equal Opportunity Employer M/F/Disability/ProtectedVet/Sexual Orientation/Gender Identity.


The highly admired entry-level flagship smartphone, HUAWEI Y9 2019 will be available at a discount of INR 500 on 11th March, exclusively on Amazon.in. The entry-level flagship smartphone with best in class entertainment features will come with free 'Boat ROCKERZ 255 SPORTS Bluetooth hands-free' worth INR 2,990. Listed under the 'Amazon Choice', the company is also cashback and no cost EMI on the recently launched device.
Revolutionizing the technology with its innovative and smart device, the company is offering on no cost EMI option. Featuring a 19.5:9 display ratio, consumers will be able to view your favourite movies and play your favourite games on a wide 6.5-inch screen. The Huawei Y9 2019 also comes with an amazing endurance as the 4,000 mAh battery allows users to move around without the worry of charging their phone.


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What is the Best Game That Bioware Has Ever Made?
by David Lloyd January 10, 2021
Leave a Comment on What is the Best Game That Bioware Has Ever Made?
Round 1 of the RPG Battle Royale concludes with a battle of the best Bioware and Square Enix titles.
Returning from the holiday break, The Thirsty Mage pub is open once again and wrapping up round one of our competition to determine the greatest RPG ever made. This episode takes a long look at Bioware during their peak and tries to figure out which game might be their finest.
The discussion finishes with a battle between some of the finest games made by Square Enix as a pair of Final Fantasy VII titles take on powerhouses in Dragon Quest XI and Nier Automata. Which games with survive? Make sure to cast your vote on Patreon or Twitter to help keep your favourite title in the running.
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Next Entry No More Heroes – Nintendo Switch Review


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Q: Permutation and Combination problem : In how many ways can Rs. 16 be divided into 4 person when none of them get ... Permutation and Combination problem :
Problem : In how many ways can Rs. 16 be divided into 4 person when none of them get less than Rs. 3 ?
I have this : The number of ways of distributing $n$ things all alike into $r$ different groups is $^{n+r-1}C_{r-1}$ lots , no lots being blank:
Coefficient of $x^n $ in $(1+x+x^2+.....)^r$
I am unable to understand how to use this case in the given problem. Request you to please help me on this and elaborate a bit .. will greatful to you... Thanks...

A: The easiest way to solve it is to imagine giving each person Rs. $3$ right away and then distributing the remaining Rs. $4$ arbitrarily. In other words, reduce the problem to distributing Rs. $4$ amongst $4$ people with no restrictions: you have the formula for that, with $n=r=4$:
$$\binom{4+4-1}{4-1}=\binom73=35\;.$$

A: What you want is, how many ways are there to write
$$\{1, \ldots, 16\} = A_1 \dot{\cup} A_2 \dot\cup A_3 \dot\cup A_4$$
Under the constraint, that $|A_i| \geq 3 \quad \forall\ i$.
Did I understand that correctly?

A: If we expand $$(1+x+x^2+\cdots+x^{16})(1+x+x^2+\cdots+x^{16}) \times (1+x+x^2+\cdots+x^{16})(1+x+x^2+\cdots+x^{16})$$ the coefficient of $x^{16}$ receives contributions from terms $x^a x^b x^c x^d$ where $a+b+c+d=16$ and $a,b,c,d \in \{0,1,\ldots,16\}$.
We can think of $a$ as being the amount of Rs that the first person gets, $b$ as the the amount of Rs that the second person gets, and so on.
However, the above expression admits the possibility that e.g. $a<3$, so we'd need to modify the expression to account for this restriction.


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Digital marketing became more sophisticated in the 2000s and the 2010s, when[13][14] the proliferation of devices' capable of accessing digital media led to sudden growth.[15] Statistics produced in 2012 and 2013 showed that digital marketing was still growing.[16][17] With the development of social media in the 2000s, such as LinkedIn, Facebook, Youtube and Twitter, consumers became highly dependent on digital electronics in daily lives. Therefore, they expected a seamless user experience across different channels for searching product's information. The change of customer behavior improved the diversification of marketing technology.[18]
Negative keywords can be managed through the shared library, saving time adding negative keywords to multiple campaigns. Most account managers have certain lists of adult terms or industry exclusions that are standard for an account. Maintaining the lists in the shared library saves time. The lists can be added account wide or to selected campaigns in the account.
Keep resources crawlable. Blocking page resources can give Google an incomplete picture of your website. This often happens when your robots.txt file is blocking access to some or all of your page resources. If Googlebot doesn't have access to a page's resources, such as CSS, JavaScript, or images, we may not detect that it's built to display and work well on a mobile browser. In other words, we may not detect that the page is "mobile-friendly," and therefore not properly serve it to mobile searchers.
Assume a small universe of four web pages: A, B, C and D. Links from a page to itself are ignored. Multiple outbound links from one page to another page are treated as a single link. PageRank is initialized to the same value for all pages. In the original form of PageRank, the sum of PageRank over all pages was the total number of pages on the web at that time, so each page in this example would have an initial value of 1. However, later versions of PageRank, and the remainder of this section, assume a probability distribution between 0 and 1. Hence the initial value for each page in this example is 0.25.
It doesn't matter how incredible your business is, how optimized your site is or how much your customers love you—if you aren't a mega corporation like Nike or Office Max or Macey's, you're probably going to struggle to show up at the top of the search engine results page. This is especially true if you're trying to rank for highly competitive searches where customers are looking for specific products.
The role of a social media manager is easy to infer from the title, but which social networks they manage for the company depends on the industry. Above all, social media managers establish a posting schedule for the company's written and visual content. This employee might also work with the content marketing specialist to develop a strategy for which content to post on which social network.
A navigational page is a simple page on your site that displays the structure of your website, and usually consists of a hierarchical listing of the pages on your site. Visitors may visit this page if they are having problems finding pages on your site. While search engines will also visit this page, getting good crawl coverage of the pages on your site, it's mainly aimed at human visitors.
SEO.com is a certified Google Partner, which means the search engine has certified our knowledge and experience of Google applications and tools. In addition, we have access to specialized Google training and products, and a dedicated Google representative. Whether you are in ecommerce, technology, retail, dentistry, or B2B, you will benefit working with SEO.com.
Master strategic marketing concepts and tools to address brand communication in a digital world. This Specialization explores several aspects of the new digital marketing environment, including topics such as digital marketing analytics, search engine optimization, social media marketing, and 3D Printing. When you complete the Digital Marketing Specialization you will have a richer understanding of the foundations of the new digital marketing landscape and acquire a new set of stories, concepts, and tools to help you digitally create, distribute, promote and price products and services. In 2016, this was one of the top 10 specializations in terms of enrollments. INC Magazine rated the first course, Marketing in a Digital World, as one of The 10 Hottest Online Classes for Professionals in 2015. In addition, this course was also ranked in the top five courses across multiple MOOC providers. Finally, the Digital Marketing Certificate was the top coveted certificate on Coursera in 2015. Get more updates on the specialization at http://digitalmarketingprofs.com/ This Specialization is part of the University of Illinois Masters of Business Administration degree program, the iMBA. Learn more about the admission into the program here.
Major search engines like Google, Yahoo!, and Bing primarily use content contained within the page and fallback to metadata tags of a web page to generate the content that makes up a search snippet.[9] Generally, the HTML title tag will be used as the title of the snippet while the most relevant or useful contents of the web page (description tag or page copy) will be used for the description.
SEO is not an appropriate strategy for every website, and other Internet marketing strategies can be more effective like paid advertising through pay per click (PPC) campaigns, depending on the site operator's goals. Search engine marketing (SEM), is practice of designing, running, and optimizing search engine ad campaigns.[55] Its difference from SEO is most simply depicted as the difference between paid and unpaid priority ranking in search results. Its purpose regards prominence more so than relevance; website developers should regard SEM with the utmost importance with consideration to PageRank visibility as most navigate to the primary listings of their search.[56] A successful Internet marketing campaign may also depend upon building high quality web pages to engage and persuade, setting up analytics programs to enable site owners to measure results, and improving a site's conversion rate.[57] In November 2015, Google released a full 160 page version of its Search Quality Rating Guidelines to the public,[58] which now shows a shift in their focus towards "usefulness" and mobile search. In recent years the mobile market has exploded, overtaking the use of desktops as shown in by StatCounter in October 2016 where they analysed 2.5 million websites and 51.3% of the pages were loaded by a mobile device [59]. Google has been one of the companies that have utilised the popularity of mobile usage by encouraging websites to use their Google Search Console, the Mobile-Friendly Test, which allows companies to measure up their website to the search engine results and how user-friendly it is.
"When I think of Brick Marketing I think Thank You!!! We had previously used another SEO firm and although I think they were doing their job, it never felt right. But we didn't quite know why. I did a lot of research and was drawn to Brick Marketing because of their customer feedback, white hat philosophy and TRANSPARENCY. Once we started working with Nick I realized that what didn't feel right about our previous SEO company was that everything was veiled in mystery. We never knew what they were doing, why or when.
Search engine optimization (SEO) is the process of affecting the online visibility of a website or a web page in a web search engine's unpaid results—often referred to as "natural", "organic", or "earned" results. In general, the earlier (or higher ranked on the search results page), and more frequently a website appears in the search results list, the more visitors it will receive from the search engine's users; these visitors can then be converted into customers.[1] SEO may target different kinds of search, including image search, video search, academic search,[2] news search, and industry-specific vertical search engines. SEO differs from local search engine optimization in that the latter is focused on optimizing a business' online presence so that its web pages will be displayed by search engines when a user enters a local search for its products or services. The former instead is more focused on national or international searches.


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The Hidden Rides and Themed Attractions of...Minnesota
Minneapolis is the greatest secret in America. I say this often, but seriously, it is true. They have an airport with all sorts of international flights thanks to being a Delta hub. There's passable public transport with airport connections, which is incredibly rare even in cities with light rail. The most famous hospital in the world isn't that far away, and there's a great research university. All four major pro sports are represented. Minnesota was so well developed, peaceful, and frankly "socialist" (google the Minnesota Miracle) that the federal government made it the dumping ground for diaspora running from their homelands simply because it, more than any other city in the nation, was capable of accepting and integrating them. Don't believe me? Go look at the huge Hmong and Somali populations and tell me otherwise. The city consistently rates as one of the world's most livable.
As a whole, the state has elected the likes of a pro wrestler (Jesse Ventura) and stand up comedian (Al Franken) to high office. Garrison Keillor is from here, and he's the most NPR thing in the world. So was Prince, who never left Minneapolis even at the peak of his fame. They're "different" in the way Vermonters are different, except by most criteria, they're also better than most everywhere in the United States at literally every aspect of civilization. And yet they get no credit. Funny how that works, right?
But this isn't just a blog for recitation of random factoids about places you, likely a US resident within 150 miles of an ocean, have thought beneath you. This is a blog specifically about amusement rides, theme parks, and all the things that fall under that umbrella. It is a big umbrella. If Minnesota is so livable and so good, clearly, it must have rides worth talking about. How could it not?
As always here, we start with the known quantities, and that means we're spending lots of time in the Twin Cities. Valleyfair is a Cedar Fair owned and constructed park that opened in 1976. Cedar Fair's corporate name stems from the combination of Cedar Point and Valleyfair. As a Cedar Fair park of the vintage, it certainly shows in the midway and building design. Some of the more unique rides in the park include the Renegade GCI wood coaster, Wild Thing (Morgan Hypercoaster), and Excaliber, a Arrow Mine Train with some serious kick. Not too far away is the Mall of America, home to Nickelodeon Universe and its unique collection of rides, ranging from a Zierer Hexentanz to a Gerstlauer Eurofighter coaster and a Sally shooting dark ride. Don't forget that the mall is also home to a Soarin' style ride (Flyover America), the huge Water Park of America, and a large aquarium, now operated by Merlin.
And now, the less known:
It might be a stretch to call the Minnesota State Fair "unknown". One of the nation's 3 most attended fairs, Minnesota and Texas have been the two pillars on which the increasing number of independent midways in America have been built. In addition to the unique rides that come to Minneapolis each August, there's a number of permanent rides here that operate only during the Fair. Among these: a 100+ year old Old Mill dark ride, a Von Roll skyride, a rotating observation tower, and a one-off Barr Engineering rapids ride. Staying in the metro area, Como Town and Zoo in St. Paul recently welcomed an Interpark Zyklon to join their collection of family rides and attractions.
Now, yes, more than half of the state's population lives within the confines of the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Statistical Area. But there's still a couple million people elsewhere, and they do stuff too. Some of it is kinda unique. Take for example the Western Minnesota Steam Threshers Reunion in Hawley. Located 3 1/2 hours northwest of Minneapolis itself, it might be the single largest collection of steam powered equipment in the world, and two of those pieces are ride-able. There are train rides (surprise!) but also a steam powered carousel, one of very few anywhere in the world. Back east a little ways in Brainerd is Paul Bunyan Land, which has two notable attractions: one is the home built haunted house that operates during its full season. The other is the last known permanent installation of Flying Cages anywhere in the the US. Wonder what these look like? Well, wonder no further:
Southeast of Minneapolis, in the city of Kellogg, is LARK Toys. Whomever it is that ranks toy stores finds this one to be among the tops in the nation, and they've got a unique new build wood carousel and mini golf as draws aside from the toys. Heading well north to Lake Superior, the city of Duluth has a ski resort (Spirit Mountain) which became one of the first in the nation to acquire a Wiegland Alpine Coaster in 2010. It's really the only such ride in this region of the nation (world if you count Western Ontario and Manitoba). The next closest one is a day's drive away in Branson, MO. If having underwheels is too risk adverse for your taste, Wild Mountain in Taylors Falls has an old fashioned concrete alpine slide, plus an airbag platform to jump off of. You climb a tower and jump off, no restraints, no assistance, into an airbag.
There are a ton of aquatics facilities in Minnesota: 15 or so qualify as full bore parks outside of the big one attached to Mall of America. Few of them have really defining and strange characteristics aside from Wild Mountain's Big Country slide (a long slide featuring 9 splashdown points and a ground hugging layout suggesting a past history of being concrete) and the Venetian Indoor Waterpark. The latter doesn't have anything colossal, just a comparatively unique theme.
LARK Toys is not the only retail location to have a themed attraction. Tom's Logging Camp outside Duluth features a Gravity House attraction in the classic 1950s tradition. But there's also some historical exhibits showing life for loggers from turn of the century-era frontier time too.
Posted by Alan Conceicao at 3:56 PM
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