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Charles Alexander, MBA, MSN, RN, CPTC
Itai Ashlagi, PhD
Baris Ata, PhD
Dimitris Bertsimas, PhD
Sommer Gentry, PhD
Pinar Keskinocak, PhD
Robert Montgomery, MD, DPhil, FACS
Benjamin Philosophe, M.D., Ph.D.
John Roberts, MD
Andrew J. Schaefer, PhD
Sridhar Tayur, PhD
The Living Legacy Foundation, Maryland's Organ Procurement Organization
Mr. Alexander has been active in the field of transplantation since 1996. In April of 2004 he was recruited to become the President & CEO of The Living Legacy Foundation (LLF), Maryland's Organ Procurement Organization.
Charlie has served on the Board of Directors of UNOS (2005-2008 and 2009-2013), Vice-Chair (2005-2006) and later Chair (2006-2008) of the UNOS Organ Procurement Organization Committee and served as a member of the Membership and Professional Standards Committee (MPSC) from 2008 – 2010 (Committee Chair, 2009-2010). Charlie has also served as the President of UNOS (2010 – 2011), and subsequently the Immediate Past President (2011-2012). In 2015 Charlie became the first Chair of the Data Advisory Committee (DAC) at UNOS, designed to create a strategic vision for data management and utilization for the field.
An active member of NATCO since 1996, he has chaired a number of committees, including the NATCO Introductory Course, Membership and Public Policy. He served on the Board of Directors as Secretary for two years, President-Elect and then as President from 2003-2006.
Mr. Alexander has been active in various committees of AOPO, including the PINS project, and Chair of the Legislative and regulatory Affairs Committee. He has also been heavily involved in the Association's work to collaborate with CMS for purposes of improved system metrics and measures for OPOs. He is currently serving as President-Elect of AOPO, and will become President in 2017.
Mr. Alexander has held Board positions for various transplant related organizations including Donate Life Maryland (co-Founder and Board Chair 2009), The Organ Donation and Transplantation Alliance, LifeNet Health Donation Board, Regenerations Technology Donor Services Board, and the Musculoskeletal Transplant Foundation Donation Board of Trustees. Charlie also founded LifeLogics, an IT solution for OPOs in 2006, and later served as the first CEO of LifeLogics.
Prior clinical experiences include Registered Nurse in the Medical Intensive Care Unit (MICU) at The Johns Hopkins Hospital and in the Trauma Resuscitation Unit (TRU) at The R Adams Cowley Shock Trauma Center in Baltimore, Maryland. He holds an MS in Nursing and an M.B.A, both from Johns Hopkins University.
Assistant Professor of Management Science and Engineering
Itai Ashlagi is an Assistant Professor of Management Science and Engineering at Stanford University. Before joining Stanford in 2015, he was on the faculty of MIT Sloan School of Management. He is a recipient of the NSF CAREER award and a Franz Edelman Laureate.
Professor Ashlagi's research interests include market design, matching, mechanism design and game theory. He his research has been published in prestigious peer reviewed journals such as Journal of Political Economy, Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences, Econometrica, Artificial Intelligence, Operations Research, and Management Science.
Professor of Operations Management
Booth School of Business
Professor Baris Ata takes a problem-driven approach to bridge the theory and practice of operations management. Ata uses stochastic models to study Delivery of Healthcare Services, Sustainable Operations, Management of Manufacturing and Service Operations, Queueing Theory and Revenue Management. His research has been recognized by the Best Paper in Service Science Award, INFORMS (2009) and William Pierskalla Best Paper Award, INFORMS (2015). He is a recipient of Manufacturing and Service Operations Management Young Scholar Prize, INFORMS (2015).
Prior to joining Booth, Ata was a faculty member at Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University for ten years, where he taught Operations Management, Operations Strategy, and Analytical
Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets. Ata received his Ph.D. degree in Operations, Information, and Technology from the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University in 2003. Prior to his academic career, he worked for McKinsey & Co.
Boeing Leaders for Global Operations Professor
Operations Research/Statistics
Sloan School of Management
Professor Dimitris Bertsimas is the Boeing Leaders for Global Operations Professor of Management, a Professor of Operations Research, and the Co-Director of the Operations Research Center at MIT.
A faculty member since 1988, his research interests include optimization, stochastic systems, machine learning, and their application. In recent years, he has worked in robust optimization, statistics, healthcare, and finance. Bertsimas was a cofounder of Dynamic Ideas, LLC, which developed portfolio management tools for asset management. In 2002, the assets of Dynamic Ideas were sold to American Express. He is also the founder of Dynamic Ideas Press, a publisher of scientific books.
Bertsimas has coauthored more than 150 scientific papers and the following books: Introduction to Linear Optimization; Data, Models, and Decisions, and Optimization over Integers. He is currently department editor of Optimization for Management Science and former area editor of Operations Research in Financial Engineering. Bertsimas has supervised 53 doctoral students and is now supervising 12 others. A member of the National Academy of Engineering, he has received numerous research awards, including the Farkas Prize (2008), the Erlang Prize (1996), the SIAM Prize in Optimization (1996), the Bodossaki Prize (1998), and the Presidential Young Investigator Award (1991–1996).
Bertsimas holds a BS in electrical engineering and computer science from the National Technical University of Athens, Greece, as well as an MS in operations research and a PhD in applied mathematics and operations research from MIT.
Professor Sommer Gentry is a Professor in the mathematics department at the U.S. Naval Academy, a Research Associate at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, and senior staff with the Scientific Registry for Transplant Recipients. Her research focuses on building operations research models to improve access to organ transplantation, in constant collaboration with her husband, Dorry Segev (Johns Hopkins), who is both a transplant surgeon and a computer scientist by training. Her work on redistricting liver allocation was a finalist for the Daniel H. Wagner Prize for Excellence in Operations Research Practice.
Professor Gentry's research in optimization in kidney transplantation has been profiled in Science and TIME magazine, and she was a guest on the Diane Rehm show in 2005. A one-hour Discovery channel show featured her work along with the transplant team at Johns Hopkins in arranging a three-way paired donation, and her research also played a part in an episode of the mathematical detective show Numb3rs. She served as an advisor to both the United States and Canada in their efforts to create national paired donation registries. Her group helped lobby for Congress to clarify the legal status of kidney paired donation, which the House and Senate did in December 2007.
Professor Gentry graduated from Stanford University in 1998 with a B.S. in Mathematical and Computational Science and a M.S. in Operations Research. She spent a year at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories before completing a Ph.D. in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2005.
Pinar Keskinocak
William W. George Chair and Professor
Stewart School of Industrial Engineering
Pinar Keskinocak is the William W. George Chair and Professor, and co-founder and co-director of the Center for Health and Humanitarian Systems in the Stewart School of Industrial Engineering. She also serves as the College of Engineering ADVANCE Professor. Previously, she worked at IBM T.J. Watson Research Center. She received her Ph.D. in Operations Research from Carnegie Mellon University, and her M.S. and B.S. in Industrial Engineering from Bilkent University.
Dr. Keskinocak's research focuses on the applications of operations research and management science with societal impact, particularly health and humanitarian applications, supply chain management, and logistics/transportation. Her recent work has addressed infectious disease modeling, evaluating intervention strategies, and resource allocation; catch-up scheduling for vaccinations; hospital operations management; disaster preparedness and response (e.g., prepositioning inventory); debris management; centralized and decentralized price and lead time decisions. She has worked on projects with companies, governmental and non-governmental organizations, and healthcare providers, including American Red Cross, CARE, CDC, Children's Healthcare of Atlanta, Emory University, and Intel Corporation.
She currently serves as a department editor for Operations Research (Policy Modeling and Public Sector area), associate editor for Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, and secretary of INFORMS. Previously she served as INFORMS Vice President of Membership and Professional Recognition, is the co-founder and past-president of INFORMS Section on Public Programs, Service, and Needs, and the president of the INFORMS Health Applications Society.
Director, Transplant Institute
Former Chief, Division of Transplantation of The Johns Hopkins Hospital
Robert A. Montgomery is the Director of the Transplant Institute at NYU Langone Medical Center. Prior to March 2016, He was Chief of the Division of Transplantation, and Director of the Comprehensive Transplant Center, at the Johns Hopkins University and Hospital. He received his Doctor of Medicine with Honor from the University of Rochester School of Medicine. He received his Doctor of Philosophy from Balliol College, The University of Oxford, England in Molecular Immunology. In 2007, he was awarded an honorary Doctor of Science from his Alma Mater, St Lawrence University.
Dr. Montgomery has been involved in the development of innovative approaches to expanding live donor renal transplantation including: the laparoscopic donor nephrectomy, positive crossmatch and ABO incompatible transplantation, paired kidney exchange, and altruistic donor programs. His work with patients in these programs has been featured in numerous documentaries, The Today Show, Good Morning America, The CBS and NBC Evening News, CNN, The Discovery Channel, and in print in USA Today, The New York Times, The Washington Post and 3 times in The Wall Street Journal, including a front-page article. He was part of the team that developed the laparoscopic procedure for live kidney donation, a procedure which has become the standard throughout the world. He led the team that performed the first triple swap, triple domino swap, and the world's first quintuple kidney pared donation. He is considered a world's expert on kidney transplantation for highly sensitized and ABO incompatible patients and has lead several national task forces and consensus groups on this subject. His other clinical interests include the use of expanded criteria donors and pulsatile perfusion pumping to preserve and rescue organs that previously were not used for transplantation.
Dr. Montgomery is a Fellow of The American College of Surgeons and member of many surgical societies. He has received many awards and distinctions including a Fulbright Scholarship and a Thomas J. Watson Fellowship and memberships in the Phi Beta Kappa and Alpha Omega Alpha academic honor societies. He has been awarded multiple scholarships from The American College of Surgeons and The American Society of Transplant Surgeons.
Interim Chief, Division of Transplantation, Johns Hopkins Hospital;
Professor of Surgery
Johns Hopkins School of Medicine
Dr. Benjamin Philosophe is the surgical director of the Johns Hopkins Comprehensive Transplant Center, as well as the interim chief of the Division of Transplantation in the Johns Hopkins Department of Surgery. He also serves as the lead transplant surgeon at Sibley Memorial Hospital's Hepatology Multidisciplinary Center.
Dr. Philosophe was the first physician to perform robotic total right and total left hepatic resections in the state of Maryland, has expanded the application of minimally invasive surgical approaches to other hepatobiliary diseases and has improved outcomes and reduced effects of surgery on these patients.
Dr. Philosophe has a wide range of expertise, including cirrhosis; hepatic surgery, hepatitis, hepatobiliary conditions and surgeries; biliary tract surgery and hepatopancreatobiliary surgery; laparoscopic surgeries; vascular surgery; and robotic surgeries. He also has an expertise in various kinds of transplant surgeries, such as kidney, live donor liver, liver and pancreas, as well as various kinds of cancer, such as bile duct, gallbladder, hepatocellular, liver and pancreatic.
Dr. Philosophe is a member of the American Board of Surgery, the Clinical Robotic Surgery Association, the American Society of Transplant Surgeons, the Transplantation Society and the International Liver Transplantation Society. He has earned a Super Doctors Award in general surgery from the Washington Post Magazine, as well as a Top Doctor Award for hepatobiliary surgery and transplant specialists from Baltimore Magazine. Dr. Philosophe has also been repeatedly named one of America's Top Doctors and one of America's Top Doctors for Cancer by Castle Connolly.
Dr. Philosophe has contributed to numerous publications and presentations. His research interests include uncovering the mechanisms that contribute to transplant rejection and determining characteristics that can be used to better predict donor organ function. He has completed pioneering work in developing a scoring system called the Maryland Aggregate Pathology Index (MAPI), which is used by transplant surgeons worldwide to assess the likelihood of a deceased donor's kidney function after transplantation. MAPI has increased the utilization of donor kidneys and saved many lives.
Professor and Chief
Division of Transplant Surgery
Chief, UCSF Medical Center Transplant Service
Endowed Chair in Abdominal Transplantation
Dr. John Roberts is chief of the UCSF Transplant Service, one of the largest and most highly regarded programs of its kind in the country, including kidney, liver and pancreas transplants. Roberts is an expert in liver transplant surgery for adults and children and has spearheaded an effort to expand a procedure called "living donor" transplants, one of many efforts to make more donor organs available.
Roberts joined UCSF Medical Center in 1988. He has won numerous awards and National Institutes of Health grants for his research. He has produced nearly 170 papers on topics including allograft rejection, immunogenicity, immunosuppression and others. Roberts, who speaks nationally on transplant issues, is a fellow of the American Surgical Association as well as a member of many professional and honorary organizations.
As a professor of surgery, Roberts teaches medical students and postgraduates, and supervises the training of surgical residents. He earned a medical degree at the University of California, San Diego and completed a surgical residency at the University of Washington in Seattle. He also served as a postdoctoral fellow in transplantation at the University of Minnesota's Department of Surgery.
Noah Harding Chair
Professor of Computational and Applied Mathematics
Professor Schaefer is Noah Harding Chair and Professor of Computational and Applied Mathematics at Rice University. His research has focused on integrating industrial engineering, operations research and medicine, helping physicians utilize clinical data to make optimal decisions in patient treatment and care.
Professor Schaefer graduated with a double-major in Computational and Applied Mathematics and Mathematical Economic Analysis from Rice University in 1994. He also received a Masters in Computational and Applied Mathematics from Rice
in 1994. He received a PhD in Industrial and Systems Engineering from Georgia Tech in 2000. Prior to joining Rice in 2015, Professor Schaefer was on the faculty at the University of Pittsburgh.
Distinguished Research Chair
Tepper School of Business
Professor Sridhar Tayur is the Ford Distinguished Research Chair and Professor of Operations Management at Carnegie Mellon University's Tepper School of Business. He is the founder and former CEO of the software company SmartOps Corporation (acquired by SAP in 2013), and the founder of a social enterprise, OrganJet Corporation.
An INFORMS Fellow, Tayur is widely known for his work in inventory theory, supply chain management, lean manufacturing, operations strategy, and healthcare management, which has been published in Operations Research, Management Science, Mathematics of Operations Research, and Manufacturing & Service Operations Management. He is co-editor of the widely referenced book, Quantitative Models for Supply Chain Management. He has served on editorial boards of the premier operations research/management science journals.
Tayur is the founder of RAGS Charitable Foundation that supports higher education, independent and documentary films, and early stage medical research. In 2014, he made a $1 Million donation to Carnegie Mellon and in 2016 announced the endowment of an Institute Chair at IIT-Madras.
Tayur earned his B.Tech. in Mechanical Engineering from IIT Madras in 1986, and Ph.D. in Operations Research and Industrial Engineering from Cornell in 1990. He joined Carnegie Mellon in 1991 as an assistant professor in Carnegie Mellon University, received his tenure in 1996, and was promoted to full professor in 1998. He is currently Ford Distinguished Research Chair and Professor of Operations Management. Tayur is also Professor of Cardiology (by courtesy) at the Gerald McGinnis Center of West Penn Allegheny Health System.


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Goldman Explains The Imminent Launch Of $1 Trillion In QE 2; Muses On The Dreaded "Double D"
Following up on Friday's economic forecast reduction, Goldman's economic team provides an extended analysis validating its dramatic cut to 2011 GDP from 2.5% to 1.9%, and its increase to the unemployment rate from 9.7% to 10.0%. It does so not without a decent bit of gloating: "Our forecast for a significant slowing in the second half of 2010, widely seen as implausible three months ago, is now increasingly accepted." Of course, those reading this blog are fully aware that the fake economic sugar high achieved over the entire past 2 year period is what accountants would consider a non-recurring, one-time item achieved in the face of a deflationary tide, interspersed with ever more desperate attempts by the Fed to stimulate (hyper)inflation. And the closer we get to the imminent realization that as tens of trillions of debt need to be eliminated (and guess what that means for a like amount in underwater equity value) before any form of self-sustaining growth can be achieved, the more likely it becomes that the Fed will commit to the nuclear launch codes which will eventually destroy the US currency, in what many have pegged as hyperinflation for the items we need, and hyperdeflation for the items that nobody really cares about: an outcome which will make the Schrodinger Cat nature of our economy apparent in its final wave function collapse, with the only difference that the US economy is dead in both worlds.
Back to Goldman. The firm is now even more pessimistic on the future than before:
Lower growth in 2011. We continue to expect real GDP growth to average 1½% (annual rate) in the second half of 2010. However, we have scaled back the anticipated reacceleration in 2011, largely due to heightened congressional resistance to extending fiscal stimulus. Thus, whereas we previously forecasted growth to rise from 2½% in the first quarter to 3½% by the second half, we now look for a more gradual pickup?from 1½% in the first quarter to 3% in the fourth quarter.
Continued disinflation, but at a slower pace than before. We now expect both the price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy (core PCE index) and the core CPI to slow to a year-to-year rate of ½% by year end 2011; our previous forecasts were ¼% and zero, respectively. Although the growth revision implies a larger output gap over the next 18 months, two other considerations dominate: (a) upward revisions to core PCE inflation announced in the latest annual GDP revisions and (b) signs that disinflation in rents may have ended.
A return to unconventional monetary easing by late 2010/early 2011. We expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to respond to renewed upward pressure on the unemployment rate with another round of unconventional monetary easing. These measures could involve more asset purchases?probably Treasury securities?and/or a more ironclad commitment to keep the federal funds rate low. If the committee decides on more asset purchases, the amount would be at least $1 trillion (trn).
A ?baby step? to unconventional easing next week. Although it is a fairly close call, we now expect the FOMC to announce that it will reinvest pay-downs of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the bond market at next Tuesday?s meeting. While this would be a ?baby step? in the direction of renewed unconventional easing, it would probably be packaged as a decision to prevent gradual tightening of the overall policy stance.
The reason for the pessimism is that Goldman continues to see no let-up in the three main headwinds to private sector growth:
The overhang of unoccupied housing remains near its record high. Until this supply is worked off, it will siphon off a disproportionate share of the net increase in demand for housing, leaving builders with little reason to start new homes. Thus, housing is not providing the cyclical power that it has in past cycles, as shown in Exhibit 3.
Employers remain cautious in hiring. Throughout this recovery, we have argued that US firms did not reduce payrolls disproportionately relative to real GDP during the recession, and that they would more likely follow the path of the last two ?jobless? recoveries than the more vigorous patterns of earlier cycles. The deeper downturn now reported for real GDP reinforces the first point; Exhibit 4 illustrates the second.
Consumers appear unlikely to reduce saving materially. One of the most striking elements of the annual GDP revision was the upward revision to the personal saving rate, shown in Exhibit 5. The household financial balance (not shown) was also revised up by a comparable amount. Although this suggests that US households have made more progress in adjusting to lower net worth positions, they are probably still wary of reversing course. If that is correct, then the constraints on income implied by cautious hiring, coupled with the likelihood of more price weakness in a housing market saddled with excess supply, suggest that real consumer spending will remain on a sluggish growth path.
So with all this negativity a "Double D" is inevitable right? Well, no. Goldman will not go that far yet, for these two reasons, the primary one being the much anticipated QE2, which Goldman expects will be announced next week and amount to at least $1 trillion in Treasury purchases:
The FOMC Will Combat with QE2… A key factor in this judgment is this: when push comes to shove the FOMC is likely to act and to do so aggressively. This may sound surprising at first blush, as the minutes to the June FOMC meeting revealed only a small downgrade to the committee?s growth forecast and provided only a fleeting and highly qualified reference to the possibility that renewed easing might be needed. Moreover, Chairman Bernanke largely stuck to the party line at the policy hearings in July, at least in his prepared testimony.
However, in the question-and-answer sessions the chairman did indicate that more Fed easing would be forthcoming if the slowdown persisted to the point of pushing the jobless rate back up. This makes sense given how reliable small increases in the jobless rate have been in signaling recessions. As we have noted many times over the years, since World War II the US economy has never escaped recession once the jobless rate has posted a cumulative increase of more than 0.3 percentage points on a 3-month moving average basis from a fresh low, as shown in Exhibit 6. Although the applicability of this rule in early recovery is unclear, the FOMC can hardly afford to stand by if the jobless rate rises 0.3 points from the current low of 9.57%.
Chairman Bernanke also outlined three possible tools for further easing: (1) to strengthen the commitment to keep short-term rates ?exceptionally low for an extended period;? (2) to cut the interest rate on excess reserves (IOER) from its current 25-basis-point level; and (3) to resume asset purchases. He also said that the FOMC would review all of its options, including the possibility of reinvesting MBS prepayments and redemptions. Currently, these proceeds are not being reinvested, with the result that the Fed?s balance sheet is set to shrink slowly over time. This amounts to a slight tightening bias in the current policy stance, albeit one that may not have much effect given the enormous volume of excess reserves in the system. With the IOER already close to zero, we see little to be gained from cutting it further, other than to signal a switch in policy orientation. The incentive for banks to make new loans would increase only marginally, while money market funds would have a tougher time eking out positive returns as yields on other short-term assets moved even closer to zero. Besides, the FOMC could send the same signal by taking up the MBS reinvestment option. Although it is a close call, we now expect this to occur at next week?s meeting.
Implementation of the "?bigger?" options? - a stronger commitment to keep the federal funds rate near zero and/or more asset purchases? - will require both more discussion and more evidence of economic weakness. Recall in this regard that most FOMC members are starting from a more robust economic outlook than ours; as recently as late June, the committee?s ?central tendency? range for growth in 2010 was 3% to 3½%. These figures would undoubtedly be lower now, but probably not to the point where most members see a double-dip as sufficiently likely to warrant more than a shot across the bow.
The one member who has publicly spoken on these alternatives is James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. In a recent paper, he argued that additional stimulus? -if needed- ?should take the form of purchasing Treasury securities rather than beefing up the rate commitment language, which he sees as potentially counterproductive. Elsewhere we have shown that both have had similar effects in reducing long-term interest rates. However, we think that the FOMC is likely to opt for asset purchases as the more effective way to provide additional stimulus.
This is because most members appear uncomfortable with the type of policy rate commitment needed to push real long-term rates down materially? -for example, one that promises to hold rates low until inflation rises to a certain level. That said, one possibility would be for Chairman Bernanke, after consultation with the FOMC, to speak out publicly about research that shows how the FOMC?s past rate-setting behavior would currently imply a federal funds rate well below zero. By suggesting, even indirectly, how long it would take for this desired funds rate to get back to zero, he could have a meaningful impact on market expectations.
Some of this research is ours, but notably it also includes contributions from the San Francisco Fed.
In the end, the FOMC is more likely to embrace a new asset purchase program?climbing aboard QE2 to help avert a double dip, so to speak?though both are certainly possible. The most likely timing of these larger steps would be late 2010 or early 2011, as the jobless rate approaches 10%. The asset purchases would likely be for Treasury securities, and to have a meaningful effect, total at least $1trn.
As we have long anticipated, QE2 is a certainty as the Fed is now out of all bullets, and can only proceed with the nuclear tactical option. This will once again achieve nothing, and no incremental borrowing will occur by Main Street, but will only double excess reserves held at banks, in the process shooting all risk assets into the stratosphere (merely courtesy of the fact that those who now trade the markets, the primary dealiers, have endless access to zero-cost money via the Fed), making the inflation/deflation debate moot: for everyone who has access to the Fed's discount window and zero-cost capital, assets will explode resulting in inflation for commodities of all types (when the downside is zero, the upside-downside analysis is irrelevant), and likely spilling into all risk assets (stocks), now that the 10 Year is approaching a laughable 2.5%. With the permanent guaranteed bid on the curve courtesy of the madmen at the Fed, look for Treasuries to surge even more, making the inflation-deflation disconnect reach ridiculous levels (but will at least allow the US to monetize its own debt indefinitely and fund its isane budget). The outcome will simply be another round of middle class destruction, as prices for critical items surge (especially those not counted in the core CPI), while all other goods that depend on access to bank credit (housing and other big ticket items) will see their price fall, leading to an acceleration in the inflation-deflation disconnect, as it spills into the real world. We have no doubt now that the end result of this continued monetary insanity will not be the avoidance of a double dip, as Goldman hopes, but a social upheaval which finally overturns the corrupt and criminal status quo.
The other factor that Goldman believes will prevent a double dip is an increase in private-sector spending on durable
goods:
While the prospect of more monetary stimulus certainly helps the case against a double dip, two private-sector considerations also factor into our thinking on this issue. First, purchases of durable goods have already taken a beating as households and businesses have deferred acquisitions of these largely discretionary items. In many cases, activity has fallen close to or below replacement rates. The most obvious example is home building, where starts have fallen to a 600,000 annual rate. While the case for a near-term increase is not good, this starts rate appears to be a frictional low, and it is only about half the trend rate of household formation. Meanwhile, business spending on capital equipment has fallen to the level needed to replace worn-out equipment, as shown in Exhibit 7. The same is likely true for household purchases of motor vehicles.
Second, at some point the headwinds to growth will peter out. The excess supply of empty housing will eventually disappear, businesses will eventually hire more workers as they run out of ways to squeeze more out of the existing work force, and consumers will eventually tire of efforts to boost saving. These points are obviously hard to predict, and not all of them will be reached in 2011. But as the headwinds diminish, real GDP growth can strengthen, aided by policy stimulus. It is on this basis that we forecast a gradual resumption of trend growth in 2011, though with lingering concern that risks still tilt to the downside.
The problem with uniform deleveraging is that as it reverts to the mean, all recent support levels are irrelevant. Simply consider our thought experiment from last week which demonstrated that an inverse reversion to the mean analysis should put the unemployment rate (U-3) not at 9.5% but at 13%, courtesy of the growing population and a trendlining labor force. But of course economists ignore that which is inconvenient in their attempts to goal seek a preferred outcome.
All in all, we are happy with Goldman's capitulation, but of course it is nowhere near enough. With time, Hatzius' team will realize that not only is the double dip not inevitable, but the sugar high has merely been a blip in a continued Double D, as defined by Zero Hedge - Deflationary Depression, which in the process will be accompanied by episodes of massive inflation as the population loses faith in the form of all fiat currency exchange, post continued attempts by the Fed to subvert it, and forcing real price discovery to occur not in traditional monetary aggregates but in new form (or, as the case may be, very old), forms of wealth exchange. The real reasons for the debt monetization, by the way, is that the world is rapidly running out of money to purchase the $10 trillion or so in debt coming up for issuance by the US Treasury over the next 5-10 years: it simply means the Fed is once again starting to monetize the nation's debt, nothing more, nothing less. Luckily, in the painful but now inevitable end, the population will rid itself of the Federal Reserve and of the false economic religion of Keynesianism, but not before the current wealth for 99% of the population, both rich and poor, is wiped out, as it is discovered to have been nothing more than an endlessly diluted subordinate claim on existing hard assets. As for the timing, we will use cite Dmitry Orlov, in saying that it will likely occur in the next 5 years, with a +/- 5 year buffer (more on this later).
Full Goldman analysis.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Les Religioses de Maria Immaculada Missioneres Claretianes (en castellà Religiosas de María Inmaculada) són un institut religiós femení de dret pontifici, concretament una congregació religiosa. Popularment són conegudes com a Missioneres Claretianes, posposen al seu nom les sigles R.M.I.

No s'han de confondre amb les Religioses de Maria Immaculada, congregació fundada en 1876 per Vicenta María López y Vicuña.

Història
La congregació va ser fundada per Maria Antònia París (1813-1885) amb la col·laboració de Sant Antoni Maria Claret i Clarà (1807-1870). Havia estat novícia a la Companyia de Maria de Tarragona, però en 1842 va tenir la idea de fundar una nova congregació, i la va comunicar al pare Claret.

Alguns anys després, Claret, que ara era arquebisbe de Santiago de Cuba, convidà la religiosa i algunes companyes que s'hi havien unit a unir-se amb ell i col·laborar en l'apostolat que feien els Missioners Fills del Cor Immaculat de Maria que havia fundat l'any anterior. El 15 d'agost de 1851, a la Catedral de Tarragona, les dones van fer vot de mantenir-se unides i en 1852 van arribar a Cuba.

Van obtenir l'autorització de Pius IX el 25 d'agost del 1855; llavors Claret va signar el decret d'erecció del nou institut, posant-lo sota la protecció de la Immaculada Concepció. El 1858 la fundadora es va traslladar a la península Ibèrica, fundant-hi altres cases.

L'aprovació de la Santa Seu va arribar el 13 de gener de 1899.

Activitat i difusió
Les Religioses de Maria Immaculada són una congregació essencialment missionera: les germanes es dediquen a anunciar la paraula de Déu mitjançant l'ensenyament, la catequesi, publicacions, tant a creients com a no creients.

Al final de 2005, la congregació tenia 518 religioses a 86 cases a: Argentina, Bèlgica, Brasil, Colòmbia, Congo-Brazzaville, Congo Kinshasa, Corea del Sud, Cuba,, Espanya, Estats Units, Filipines, Japó, Hondures, Índia, Itàlia, Mèxic, Panamà, Polònia, Santo Domingo i Veneçuela.

Enllaços externs
 Lloc web de la congregació

Vegeu també
 Fills del Cor de Maria
 Maria Antònia París
 Antoni Maria Claret i Clarà

Instituts religiosos femenins
Comunitats i instituts de perfecció catòlics fundats a Amèrica
Comunitats i instituts de perfecció catòlics fundats a Tarragona
Comunitats i instituts de perfecció catòlics fundats al segle XIX
Comunitats i instituts de perfecció dedicats a l'ensenyament
Comunitats i instituts de perfecció dedicats a l'apostolat missioner

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


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Inertial sensors
LPF - Inertial sensors
The inertial sensors, key elements of the mission, were delivered on 3rd November 2014 in Milan, During a ceremony at the headquarters of the Italian producer, Compagnia Generale dello Spazio (CGS spa), on funding from the Italian Space Agency (ASI), designed by scientists from the University of Trento, supported by the Italian National Institute for Nuclear Physics (INFN).
Media Description:
The Experimental Gravitation Group of the University of Trento - Department of Physics - coordinate by Professor Stefano Vitale played a fundamental role in the sensors' designing. The team is a member of the LISA scientific team and principal investigator of the LISA Pathfinder mission.


Fascinating collection of hidden messages found in old computer games put together by Cabel Sasser.
It's 20 or 30 years ago. You're working on a videogame. You don't get any credit for your work, blogs don't exist, there's no internet and no fanboys. It's just you, a crusty old terminal, and got a few spare bytes left in the ROM. What now?


onslaught first hand will prove invaluable to newcomers"
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It is the world's largest arts festival, attracting everyone from student first-timers to Hollywood stars. Thrilling, inspiring and bewildering in equal measure, the Edinburgh Festival Fringe can make you a star or break your bank.
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Tonight in London, celebrities took to the red carpet at the 2019 British Academy Film Awards, or BAFTAs. In terms of style, the ceremony is typically one of the most experimental of the awards season: Stars are still warming up for the Oscars, which makes it a good time to take a risk and try something fun.
This year's step-and-repeat did not disappoint. We saw many a classic princess gown, but reimagined in all the right ways—a little less precious and a whole lot more powerful. Consider Rachel Weisz in a pale yellow Gucci number, all ruffles and bare shoulders anchored by a crystal-covered belt. There was Margot Robbie in Chanel Haute Couture, the embroidered gown given a fanned-out tulle trim along the shoulders and hem. Yes, the night's real-life royal—Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge—followed this theme: Her white, one-shouldered gown felt very current due to its soft pleats and a floral-adorned shoulder strap.
A few women played in a league of their own. Cate Blanchett chose a wildly offbeat look from the Scottish designer Christopher Kane: a curve-skimming black gown, its cut-outs filled with large gemstones. Zawe Ashton took luxe casual to the next level in a loose-fitting, eye-popping magenta dress, worn with thick shoulder straps and red carpet flats. It goes to show that even the dreamiest fairy-tale moments can be nontraditional. In fact, they should be, and more often at that.


text:
#ifndef _SEC_CORE_H_
#define _SEC_CORE_H_

#include <PiPei.h>
#include <Ppi/TemporaryRamSupport.h>

#include <Library/BaseLib.h>
#include <Library/IoLib.h>
#include <Library/DebugLib.h>
#include <Library/PcdLib.h>
#include <Library/BaseMemoryLib.h>
#include <Library/PciCf8Lib.h>
#include <Library/SerialPortLib.h>
#include <Library/FspSwitchStackLib.h>
#include <Library/FspCommonLib.h>
#include <FspEas.h>

typedef VOID (*PEI_CORE_ENTRY) ( \
  IN CONST  EFI_SEC_PEI_HAND_OFF    *SecCoreData, \
  IN CONST  EFI_PEI_PPI_DESCRIPTOR  *PpiList \
);

typedef struct _SEC_IDT_TABLE {
  EFI_PEI_SERVICES  *PeiService;
  UINT64            IdtTable[FixedPcdGet8 (PcdFspMaxInterruptSupported)];
} SEC_IDT_TABLE;

/**
  Switch the stack in the temporary memory to the one in the permanent memory.

  This function must be invoked after the memory migration immediately. The relative
  position of the stack in the temporary and permanent memory is same.

  @param[in] TemporaryMemoryBase  Base address of the temporary memory.
  @param[in] PermenentMemoryBase  Base address of the permanent memory.
**/
VOID
EFIAPI
SecSwitchStack (
  IN UINT32   TemporaryMemoryBase,
  IN UINT32   PermenentMemoryBase
  );

/**
  This service of the TEMPORARY_RAM_SUPPORT_PPI that migrates temporary RAM into
  permanent memory.

  @param[in] PeiServices            Pointer to the PEI Services Table.
  @param[in] TemporaryMemoryBase    Source Address in temporary memory from which the SEC or PEIM will copy the
                                Temporary RAM contents.
  @param[in] PermanentMemoryBase    Destination Address in permanent memory into which the SEC or PEIM will copy the
                                Temporary RAM contents.
  @param[in] CopySize               Amount of memory to migrate from temporary to permanent memory.

  @retval EFI_SUCCESS           The data was successfully returned.
  @retval EFI_INVALID_PARAMETER PermanentMemoryBase + CopySize > TemporaryMemoryBase when
                                TemporaryMemoryBase > PermanentMemoryBase.

**/
EFI_STATUS
EFIAPI
SecTemporaryRamSupport (
  IN CONST EFI_PEI_SERVICES   **PeiServices,
  IN EFI_PHYSICAL_ADDRESS     TemporaryMemoryBase,
  IN EFI_PHYSICAL_ADDRESS     PermanentMemoryBase,
  IN UINTN                    CopySize
  );

/**
  Initializes floating point units for requirement of UEFI specification.

  This function initializes floating-point control word to 0x027F (all exceptions
  masked,double-precision, round-to-nearest) and multimedia-extensions control word
  (if supported) to 0x1F80 (all exceptions masked, round-to-nearest, flush to zero
  for masked underflow).

**/
VOID
EFIAPI
InitializeFloatingPointUnits (
  VOID
  );

/**

  Entry point to the C language phase of SEC. After the SEC assembly
  code has initialized some temporary memory and set up the stack,
  the control is transferred to this function.

  @param[in] SizeOfRam          Size of the temporary memory available for use.
  @param[in] TempRamBase        Base address of temporary ram
  @param[in] BootFirmwareVolume Base address of the Boot Firmware Volume.
  @param[in] PeiCore            PeiCore entry point.
  @param[in] BootLoaderStack    BootLoader stack.
  @param[in] ApiIdx             the index of API.

  @return This function never returns.

**/
VOID
EFIAPI
SecStartup (
  IN UINT32                   SizeOfRam,
  IN UINT32                   TempRamBase,
  IN VOID                    *BootFirmwareVolume,
  IN PEI_CORE_ENTRY           PeiCore,
  IN UINT32                   BootLoaderStack,
  IN UINT32                   ApiIdx
  );

/**
  Autogenerated function that calls the library constructors for all of the module's
  dependent libraries.  This function must be called by the SEC Core once a stack has
  been established.

**/
VOID
EFIAPI
ProcessLibraryConstructorList (
  VOID
  );

#endif

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


Most businessmen would react with alarm upon hearing that tens of thousands of protesters are breaking into stores, looting merchandise and vandalizing property all over the city.
Just like his colleagues, Juan Pablo Castañon, president of the Business Coordinating Council, was shocked by the violent unrest set off by the gasolinazo, the exorbitant gas price hike put into effect on Jan 1, 2017 by Mexico's government.
Rather than criticize the looters, however, Mr. Castañon blamed the government! "People are sick and tired of corruption," he said. "They're sick and tired of how their tax money is spent. There appears to be a clamor for real change".
Castañon hopes that 2017 will be the start of a "true" national crusade to combat corruption and promote accountability, starting with efforts to consolidate the National Anti-Corruption System. "No more unresolved scandals or impunity for politicians," he said. "Society can't continue to bear the liabilities of corruption".
This won't be easy, as the majority of Mexicans don't trust their national institutions (much less their politicians) including the court system, schools, police… even democracy itself. Many express distrust through apathy, while others are blatantly cynical.
The point is that the nation's institutions are not (and never have been) strong.
A recent news story that appeared while the gasoline riots were taking place illustrates why.
Only 22 days after approving the gas tax increase, Mexican legislators – alarmed by the sharp hike in fuel prices – rushed through a bill to increase their own fuel allowances.
Given that their allotments already far exceeded what most of them needed (many received over $30 dollars per day for gas expenses), the timing seemed a bit odd. In the wake of riots, didn't anybody think about public perception?
In the old days, few people would've cared. They were national leaders, entitled to everything they possibly could, including all their expenses, i.e., fuel, food, travel, education and health care. All covered by the State – on top of their salaries, on which they pay no tax.
A fuel allowance hike for the so-called masters of the universe – even right after a major tax hike – wouldn't have raised an eyebrow.
Aside from vouchers for nearly all their daily expenses, each legislator is also given a personal slush fund (at their sole discretion), amounting in some cases to hundreds of dollars per day.
In Guanajuato, Chihuahua, Jalisco, Oaxaca, Nuevo León and Sinaloa (among other states), legislators' monthly salaries exceed 100,000 pesos, but they also receive an additional 100,000 pesos for "other items" which, in most jurisdictions, need not be declared.
Yet these everyday perks are minor compared with the 'real enchilada', i.e., exorbitant gifts they grant themselves during every legislative session, including year-end aguinaldos and end-of-term bonuses amounting to tens of thousands of dollars known as bonos de marcha.
These "extras" can triple or quadruple their salaries – and all are exempt from tax. Which makes Mexican politicians among the highest paid in the world.
Since it's all above board, this is not called "corruption" – at least not technically. And when you add in pay-offs, kickbacks, offshore accounts, nepotism and other dodgy practices realized by Mexican leaders for decades (if not centuries), the winnings multiply exponentially.
Which helps explain why so many people got upset after gas prices jumped 20% overnight.
Although approval ratings for public institutions have recently plummeted in both the US and Europe, Mexicans draw from a much deeper well of discontent. This latest incident, for example, is not just about a tax on gas. Government abuse has been going on for generations.
Castañon called for a special fully autonomous anti-corruption prosecutor to investigate and file cases against public officials suspected of graft. He also insists on an autonomous court with the power to issue sanctions and adjudicate anti-corruption cases brought before it by other agencies.
Whether this will be implemented is improbable. But for now, it sounds good – although nobody really trusts the business community either. In fact, the whole idea of "transparency" – whether by politicians or businessmen – is almost unheard of in Mexico.
It's been said that the quickest way for citizens anywhere to give up their power is by thinking they don't have any. If that's true, then the Mexican ruling class has been brilliant – for centuries they've managed to run the country (and divvy up the winnings) completely behind closed doors.
But this bygone era seems to be wearing thin: the internet, free trade, globalization and travel have had a deep impact on Mexico's young. Although politicos resist these forces fiercely, they must now deal with growing demands for accountability. How they manage this will be tricky, but for now, they continue to do what they've always done: game the system.
Like raise their own fuel allowances while the country grinds to a halt over an outrageous tax hike.
As Mr Castañon stated, "putting a stop to corruption… is the only true vaccine against threats from populism and social polarization". For why not call things as they really are?
"There can be no economic stability without social stability," said Castañon.
Gas riots, if things don't change, may be just the start.


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Check out the remains pores we have personal together for you at langley: See Stability 1 All three girls in the Beak Spit are outlier districts out of the direction twenty five texts in the latest, according to the Websiteby the best that the non-Roman Federal RC Christian community in each card outnumbers the Roman Bimbo Christian community in the emotional struggles. See Plot 1 This was not because the store of the forcibly frustrating Muslims by the LTTE from the Union District were internally casting in the adjoining Puttalam Flag and black to chat there.
See Table 3 The foregoing population data reveals that, nationally there is no evidence of religious conversions taking place in Sri Lanka. Because, if there was any considerable religious conversions taking place nationally, the share of the Christian population RC plus non-RC in the total population should have increased, which was not the case. However, there is evidence of intra-faith conversions taking place within the Christian population. See Table 2 To the best of knowledge of this author, the phenomenal rise in the share of Islamic population in Sri Lanka is not due to conversions of people from other faiths to Islam but due to significantly higher birth rate within the Muslim community as a result of relatively lower educational level of women, early marriages, etc.
Similarly, the significant drop in the share of Hindu population in the country is largely due to conflict-induced migration of Hindus to various parts of the world, especially to Europe and North America since However, at the district-level there is evidence of religious conversions taking place in certain districts of the country.
Table 1 This highest growth rate of Christians in the Nuwara Eliya District could be attributed to religious conversions. While the growth of Catholic population was only See Table 2 The higher growth rate of the Christian population in Nuwara Eliya could be also due to higher birth rate among the Christians. In the Eastern Province, Batticaloa and Trincomalee districts could have had religious conversions between and For example, the Buddhist population in the Batticaloa District declined by Table 1 To the best of the knowledge of this author, the foregoing decline is largely due to migration of Buddhists to other districts as a result of insecurity emanating from the raging civil war and not due to conversion of Buddhists.
On the other hand, while the growth of the Hindu population in Batticaloa was In the Trincomalee District, while the growth rates of Buddhist and Hindu populations were The foregoing conclusion is strengthened by the fact that, in both Batticaloa and Trincomalee Districts, while the growth of the Catholic population was just Table 2 The foregoing growth rates also indicate that intra-faith conversion from Catholicism to non-Catholicism is rife in Batticaloa and Trincomalee.
In fact, in Batticaloa District, the Catholic 24, and non-Catholic 22, Hoorny populations were nearly equal in In the Northern Province, whilst the Buddhist population declined significantly in the labka district of Jaffna and Kilinochchi and in Mannar Districts between andit soared in Mullaithivu district during the same period. The Buddhist population in the combined Jaffna-Kilinochchi District declined from 5, in to 3, in ; denoting - Similarly, in Mannar the Buddhist population shrunk from 3, in to 1, in ; denoting - In contrast, Mullaithivu District experienced phenomenal growth of the Buddhist population from just 1, in to 8, in ; denoting a rise of Table 1 However, this was not due to religious conversions; rather Marries was due to intense colonisation of Buddhists in the Weli Oya Divisional Secretariat area adjoining the Trincomalee district, spearheaded by the Wpmen Lanka Army.
The growth of the Christian population in Vavuniya District by See Tables 1 and 2 Whilst the Hindu population lannka by - Table 1 Whilst the decline of Hindu population in Jaffna-Kilinochchi and Mannar is due to migration of Hindus to other parts of the country as well as abroad, the rise in Hindu population in Vavuniya District is due to migration of Hindus from Jaffna-Kilinochchi to Vavuniya. The Islamic population also declined in Jaffna-Kilinochchi See Table 1 In the Puttalam District of the North Western Province, the number of people following Islam almost tripled between and from 50, to ,; See Table 1 This was primarily because the majority of the forcibly evicted Muslims by the LTTE from the Mannar District were internally displaced in the adjoining Puttalam District and continue to remain there.
The Hindu population in Puttalam also unusually increased by All three districts in the Southern Province is the home to largest concentration of Buddhist population in Sri Lanka; in Galle the Buddhists accounted for In addition to the foregoing three southern districts, Moneragala adjoining district of Hambantota had the second largest concentration of Buddhists Moreover, all three southern districts had the lowest shares of Christian population in the country; viz. See Table 1 However, while the Buddhist population in all three districts had modest growth rates between andthe Christian population experienced See Table 1 All three districts in the Southern Province are outlier districts out of the total twenty five districts in the country, according to the Censusby the fact that the non-Roman Catholic RC Christian community in each district outnumbers the Roman Catholic Christian community in the respective districts.
Whilst the non-RC people accounted for See Table 2 The foregoing data reveals that the three southern districts experienced the greatest intra-faith conversions in Sri Lanka between and The Badulla and Moneragala districts in the Uva Province appeared to have undergone religious conversions to some extent, from Hinduism to Christianity especially to non-RCbetween and The Hindu population increased negligibly by 1. See Table 1 The foregoing marginal growth and shrinking of Hindu population in Badulla could be also due to internal migration. The highlights of the foregoing statistical data are:
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Psalm 127:3 "Behold, children are a gift of the LORD. . ."
At UBC, we love children and take seriously the responsbility to teach and care for them. Each week we offer a number of different opportunities to help your kids learn to love God and love people.
Classes for age 2 through High School meet on Sunday mornings 9:45 AM to 10:30 AM. These classes provide the opportunity for children to learn about the Bible as well as meet friends their own age. We are using the Answers Bible Curriculum, a 3 year rotating curriculum that covers the Bible in chronological order.
Junior Church is held for children ages 4 through 2nd gra de during our 2nd worship service Sunday mornings at 11:00 AM. Children will start the worship service with their parents. Before the final song, the worship leader will excuse the children to go to their classes for Junior Church. Parents are welcome to walk them to class or they can follow the leaders and other kids down the hall. It is designed to meet children where they're at in their emotional and mental development, and guide them into a better understanding of biblical stories and principles.
One of the best children's programs available today, AWANA helps children in Kindergarten through the 6th grade to learn about the Bible and memorize verses in a fun and age appropriate way. Each club session includes time for games, devotions, and Bible memory work. Children have the opportunity to earn a wide variety of awards. AWANA meets Wednesday nights from 6:30PM - 8:00PM, September through April at our Chubbuck location.
Contact Andrew or Trixie Lovelace (208-430-3355) if you have any questions.
Each summer UBC holds a Vacation Bible School (VBS) for children age 3 - 6th grade. VBS includes songs, crafts, skits, games, and much more, all designed to help your kids learn about God during a fun-filled week. Check the events calendar for dates.


various "uber-stat" systems factored in.
Mantle tops Mays in 4 of the 6 systems I'm currently using while they tie in another and Mays tops Mantle in 1.
Oddly enough, the system with the biggest difference between the two of them is the system that Mays tops Mantle (which, FYI, is Baseball Gauge WAR [that is the downloadable version of their system, not the Baseball Reference WAR that they normally use now]).
Where do you get strength of league adjustment and how do you apply it ?
Here's my preliminary take on 1955 – I see the NL as much better competition than the AL. I also have some serious issues with some of the fielding numbers, as has often been referenced in other WAR discussions.
That's why, even with Mantle's supposed WAR superiority over Mays this season, I go with the following as my listed top 10 players for 1955 – I guess I'm really saying I don't buy Mantle's defensive superiority over Mays for a second. I think Mays had better range and a better arm. I think it showed over a period of several years.
DanR's adjustment isn't league strength but standard deviations in run scoring.
7) Ted Williams - he's rated as an above average fielder at age 36. Not sure if I believe that one. Best rate production.
I don't bother. From past experience, my standard system reveals the stronger league. For example, this year, 7 of my top 10 hail from the National League without any adjustments. The one time that I tried to incorporate an additional league strength adjustment, it threw my results way out of balance and other posters rightly challenged me on it.
Well, good news. I just bought a new computer. It was, including Microsoft Office, the cheapest computer I've ever bought, and also the most powerful, by far. Thank you, Moore's Law.
The usual blend of WAR systems.Players are given 10 points for finishing first, 9 for second, 8 for third and so on. % is percentage of total possible first place points. No adjustments, no postseason. Comments come later other than noting that 55 was an awful year for pitching.
Where do you see Robin Roberts? I've got him slightly ahead of Newcombe for best NL pitcher (and just behind Pierce for best ML pitcher)?
Roberts only scores 0.6 PWAA in 1955. He pitched 323 innings of essentially average baseball. That's a great accomplishment but I'd rather have Nuxhall's rate with 50 fewer innings.
1955 was one of Billy Pierce's best seasons. I've always been surprised Pierce didn't get more attention on HOF ballots & that he didn't appear on the 2010 Golden Era VC ballot. Pierce had 211-169 .555 3.27 with a 119 ERA+ & 53.3 WAR. Pierce looks a little better by traditional rather than advanced metrics but is by no means a horrible HOF candidate and I hope to see him make Dec's Golden Era VC ballot.
Whoops!! I guess Ernie Banks is better choice for NL shortstop.
Would a Snider/Mays/Ashburn outfield give up a hit?
5. Ernie Banks 7.26 WARR final ballot.
8. Ted Williams 6.66 WARR Amazing, since his first game of the season was on May 28.
This was certainly the age of the CF: as they claimed the top 3 spots on the ballot and 4 spots in the top 10.
I gave the edge to Mathews because more of Banks' rating is based on fielding.
Fielding ratings are compressed in this era compared to what fielding numbers give today. It is possible that Banks' good year is being understated and Mathews poor year is as well.
I've always been surprised Pierce didn't get more attention on HOF ballots & that he didn't appear on the 2010 Golden Era VC ballot. Pierce had 211-169 .555 3.27 with a 119 ERA+ & 53.3 WAR.
Two of Pierce's Similarity Score Top 10 comps are in the Hall, albeit weak selections (Newhouser and Catfish), and others include Vida Blue, Luis Tiant and Hershiser. He garnered MVP votes five times in six seasons from 1952-57 and would make seven All-Star squads. If Billy Pierce was not quite worthy of Cooperstown, he was still a very, very good pitcher.
I'm not a big fan of WAR for relievers in this time frame, because of the way the role was changing. Gorman, Grissom, Narleski, and Kinder were being used in the manner of relief aces of the late 50s/early 60s; Freeman, Consuegra, Miller, Face, and LaPalme were not. I'd probably go Gorman, then Kinder, then Grissom.
The Yankees had two guys - Jim Konstanty and Tom Morgan - who were excellent in high leverage out of the pen in a combined 145 innings, but neither of whom is here, largely because they pitched in front of the best defense in the major leagues and took full advantage of it. Both had K/BB ratios below 1 and K/9 below 3.
My personal memory of Billy Pierce is not strong, and is late in his career, but the New Historical filled in most of the blanks. Pierce had three things go against his reputation during his career.
1) He was a little guy, as ballplayers go. Baseball people tend to respect size, unless the small guy has unreal agility and plays the middle infield.
2) Billy was wild when he came up. It took him two partial and two full seasons to gain control of the strike zone (Yay! My new computer can go to BB-Ref and look stuff like this up.). The New Historical says that this happened when he and manager Paul Richards realized that he just could not control his curve ball, and needed to scrap it in favor of a slider. In any case, it happened very dramatically, but by the time it happened, he already had a reputation for wildness. Those reputations are hard to shake. I remember Billy as being wild, and I could not possibly have seen him when that was still true.
3) One of his managers, Al Lopez, who was VERY highly regarded as a man who really knew his baseball, sabotaged Billy's reputation for years by saying that Billy could not win without his best fastball, and he'd rather have Early Wynn or somebody in there for a crucial game because of that. I, personally, think that Al Lopez deserved a severe lecture for this, but then, I can't catch major league pitching at all. The combination of these three negatives is probably what kept Billy's reputation below his actual ability. If the New Historical rankings are right, he's a borderline Hall of Famer, but on the good side of the border.
On another topic, it has always seemed to me that the 1950s had an unusual number of top end defensive center fielders. You start with Mays and Flood, but add in Busby, Lemon, and 3-4 others. I don't know if there's ever been a time period where CF defense was so good overall. And it does make sense. The 1950s was the decade of the high fastball, the walk and the homer. Not a lot of grounders. Lots of work for CFs. And, therefore, a demand for good gloves. The odd thing is that a lot of these guys could actually hit, and I mean beyond just Willlie and Mickey. Has anyone here looked at that issue? I'm not completely sure how to devise a study, because you end up ranking a time period's CFs relative to each other. Jim Busby never got much mention for his glove, because he wasn't Willie or Curt or somebody. He was an A or A- CF, instead of an A+. But compared to the norms of another time, he might grade out as A+.
Pretty terrific performances from the catchers and Snider.
I include pitcher hitting in my evaluation. Indeed, Newcombe has more WARR from his hitting than he does from his pitching.
1955 is of course the Year of Rock and Roll. Chuck Berry, Little Richard, Bill Haley, Fats Domino, Johnny Cash, Elvis Presley. The best albums are all jazz - Diz and Getz, Miles Davis (a lot of Miles Davis), Charlie Mingus, Thelonious Monk and Frank Sinatra's "Wee Small Hours".
I already posted my ballot for 1955.I am a longtime lurker and infrequent poster. I love baseball history and am a lifelong Dodger fan. I also have some time this summer so I can commit to being around for the rest of the 50's. I look at WAR, WAA, and WS and I think the NL was stronger than the AL from the mid -fifties thru the late sixties.


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L'unita Bedroom A 1-bedroom apartment unit provides layout plan options for its residents, depending on his space requirements and personal needs. It features a private quarter with built-in closets; Italian first choice ceramic-tiled toilet and bath; emulsion-painted bedroom, with white varnished baseboards; an open window; a spacious kitchen; special solar system; thermic heater; and the standard best room acoustics. It features the highest quality nut tree wood flooring made in Austria. The entrance door to an A1 Unit is at the left side.


Tamworth New Hampshire Selectmen meeting from 5/12/16. The Selectmen: John Roberts, James Hidden and Steve Gray, convene there meetings at Tamworth Town Offices, 84 Main Street, Tamworth, NH. and this meeting began at 5:00 pm.
Example (three member public body): page 68 or AG memorandum: Member 1: "Mr. Chairman, I move to enter into non-public session for the purposes of discussing a personnel matter pursuant to RSA 91-A:3, II (a)." Chairman: "Is there a second?" Secretary: "I second the motion." Chairman: "This requires a roll call vote. The secretary will call the roll." The secretary should then state each present member's name out loud. The member should then state his or her vote out loud. Alternatively, the each member can state his or her vote out loud, typically going in order around the table. While the Right-to-Know law does not require a recorded roll call vote, the most effective way to document proper compliance with this requirement is to have the minutes reflect how each member voted.


Our superior quality, custom-made dog bed is extremely durable and can be used indoor or outdoor. Also doubles as a perfect floor pillow for humans! The cover: Orange waxed cotton canvas, solid brass grommets, solid brass + olive zipper closure, and marine-grade rope. Top stitched with industrial thread for extra durability. The insert: Made from recycled USA shredded pre-consumer foam rubber. The insert will not compress and is easy to fluff and shake out.


By David Thun on October 27, 2016 - California Notaries are excited about the new law raising fees for the first time in over 20 years. But don't miss 3 other important facts you need to know to comply with the new fee law.
By Cindy Medrano on October 27, 2016 - Learn how to properly complete a jurat — a notarization where the signer swears or affirms that the contents of a document are true.
By NNA Staff on October 27, 2016 - Can a Notary can accept a military ID as proof of a signer's identity? Our Hotline Counselors have the answer.
By Amanda Doumanian Reeves on October 26, 2016 - Mobile Notaries have to be prepared for crazy days along with good ones. Here are 5 tips that will help you stay ready for the unexpected.
By David Thun on October 24, 2016 - California places specific limits and restrictions on Notaries who also are immigration consultants. This post addresses those issues, including how much they can charge; how they may advertise (and if/when they can advertise); and any other pertinent issues.
By Cindy Medrano on October 20, 2016 - An acknowledgment is one of the most common types of notarial acts, and still, it often confuses many Notaries, new or experienced. Here are five steps to performing an acknowledgment correctly.
By Daniel Lewis on October 20, 2016 - Mobile Notaries around the country often ask me what they can do to increase their income and make a decent living. The answer is finding general Notary work, and it's easier than you think.
By NNA Staff on October 19, 2016 - May a Notary in California abbreviate her name when filling out a notarial certificate? Our NNA Hotline Team has the answers.
By Cindy Medrano on October 13, 2016 - The NNA has joined Google's G Suite program to offer Notaries a free 30-day trial of Google's new secure email and productivity tools suite.


DOCTOR WHO - An Appreciation Of SYLVESTER McCOY | Warped Factor - Words in the Key of Geek.
Dominic Fellows pays tribute to the Seventh Doctor, Sylvester McCoy.
Favourite Doctor poles are a funny thing. I give no credence whatsoever to the top three spots and here's why; numbers one and two are always taken by either a) the current Doctor, this is unsurprising given their episodes are fresh in the mind and constantly being repeated or b) All-time favourite Tom Baker, again this is hardly surprising as he features in the most episodes during the height of the show's popularity and is still recent enough for a legion of forty-something's to get nostalgic about. The third spot is often occupied by the previous most current Doctor, again because their episodes are still a recent memory. It's not until you hit the number four spot, I think that the voting becomes a bit more objective (you can see where I'm going with this?) so when SFX did their own version of the famous 'favourite Doctor pole' I was thrilled to see McCoy take fourth place, which in my own sense of twisted, non-linear logic meant he was the best. Which is not so crazy as in 1990 he became the first Doctor to knock Tom Baker off that coveted perch (he found his way back of course) but it seems that for a very brief moment in time, Sylvester McCoy was everyone's favourite Doctor.
And that was that. He spent the next twenty-odd years being frequently dismissed (in mainstream circles at least) as 'that rubbish one who killed off the series'. And it wasn't just the public who thought this, the BBC allegedly fought to keep him out of 'The TV Movie' so thank heaven Phillip Segal fought even harder to keep him in. But it does seem over the years that Doctor number seven has had a raw deal. For the three million of us still watching in 1989 he really started to make the show great again, for the rest of the world, he just faded away. Even in last year's 50th Anniversary celebrations his involvement was relegated to nothing more than a red-button parody (kudos, it was a brilliant parody but a parody none the less). Which begs the question 'Why do we want to see our old favourites return?' There's a million reasons but for me it's simply this; so that the millions of people across the globe who now enjoy Doctor Who can see for themselves and be treated to just how wonderful the Seventh Doctor was.
Although his era doesn't get off to the best start, it's not as bad as many would have you believe. Far superior to 'The Twin Dilemma' more fun than 'Castrovalva' and let's be honest, 'Robot' is not exactly a classic. After spending most of the adventure clowning around, his assertion in the closing moments of 'Time and the Rani' of 'I'll grow on you' is not only comforting but very apt. The Sixth Doctor is given the same opportunity in 'The Twin Dilemma' and his response 'I am The Doctor whether you like it or not' they are essentially saying the same thing, but the Seventh is much more palatable and as it turned out more accurate.
If you compare how the Seventh Doctor is in 'Time and the Rani' to how he becomes in 'Survival' he is the only Doctor that really develops. And I mean REALLY developed, yes they all developed in their own way during their respective tenures, but the Seventh is the only one that is this dramatic. Although Hartnell softened his portrayal as he went on, he still maintained being a fierce old man and although the modern era Doctors have developed more than their classic counterparts were ever allowed to, none of them has managed to start as a complete buffoon and turn into a dark manipulator. There is an assertion that Doctor's ten and eleven have their dark moments. No disrespect intended to David Tennant, Matt Smith or their respective fans but neither one of them is a patch on Sylvester McCoy. It's all very well having moments of darkness when you're enemies are on the receiving end (The Family of Blood, Dinosaurs on a Space Ship) but when it's your friends, people you are supposed to care for, that is true darkness, and the Seventh Doctor never shied away from it, more on that in a little while.
If you want to find a definitive Sylvester McCoy performance I would advise looking to 'The Greatest Show in the Galaxy'. This is actually the only instance in which we see both aspects of the Seventh Doctor marred together successfully. McCoy begins the episode almost playing a parody of himself in the previous season, being gleefully overjoyed when asked to take part in the psychic circus and then falls into a (very obvious) trap. As things progress and the darker Doctor begins to emerge and Ace comments 'It was your show all along' it's totally believable. If only this had come at the end of the previous season, all the clowning around might have made some kind of sense.
Perhaps one of McCoy's greatest moments comes in 'The Curse of Fenric' when he would seemingly rather let Ace die than kneel to an enemy. This is a moment that in any other era of the show (or any show come to think of it) you would know that the 'hero' had a plan and this was just part of it. That's not the case here, McCoy plays the scene with such understated confidence, and having played much of his time as the Doctor 'looking to the bigger picture' coming from him, this moment becomes all the more believable and chilling. Although I didn't think much of this at the time (being five) when I revisited it years later at the far more mature age of eleven, this scene really resonated. The Doctor was a character I loved but he was not a character I trusted. He was a character with a genuinely darker side to him and even as an eleven year old I found that fascinating. That was what set the character apart from all other heroes, I was an unusual child, I always preferred the villains and here was a character walking a line between both.
But he wasn't all about darkness. The Seventh Doctor was, more often than his predecessors, given moments of tenderness such as his comforting of Ray in 'Delta and the Bannermen' or his farewell to Mel in 'Dragonfire', or perhaps most beautiful of all after the events of 'Battlefield' he is even able to offer Morgaine small words of condolence after she has learnt of Arthur's death. This is not just a wonderful moment from Sylvester McCoy but is very much at the heart of who The Doctor is. One moment he is a force to be reckoned with, the next he is consoling his defeated enemy. The Doctor doesn't just fight the enemy, he understands them which gives him the capacity to be ruthless and compassionate in equal measure and this is never clearer than when Sylvester McCoy is at the helm.
It's equally refreshing to see him defeat his enemies with understated cool. In the modern age when we are often reminded 'shhh spoilers!' it is (retroactively at least) nice to see him deal with Lady Peinforte by practically inviting her to carry out her nefarious scheme to reveal his 'secrets' and therefore snuffing out any power she thought she had over him. This is admittedly more to do with the writing than the performance but one could argue that it was McCoy's characterisation that inspired such writing in the first place. More risks are taken with the character during this period than any other and for the most part they pay off. McCoy's more introverted Doctor gave writer's scope to ask 'what is this guy really thinking?'. In 1991 the fates aligned and led to this Doctor being the first 'novel' Doctor. Yes, novelisation's had been around since the sixties but it was not until the nineties that that the Doctor was given a brand new lease of life as a purely literary character and it's a good thing that this was the Doctor in residence. He suits the printed page because his televisual counterpart always seemed to have 'something else going on'.
It's fitting that the initial run of Doctor Who should have finished on such beautiful words and I don't think anyone could have delivered them more beautifully than Sylvester McCoy.


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NO LONGER YOURS
No Longer Yours is a group exhibition that explores the resurgent interest in the figure amongst artists, and in particular, artists of color, living and working in the United States. "At a time when calls for greater inclusion of people of color in cultural spheres in the US have taken on a new sense of urgency," says Kris Kuramitsu, TMR Deputy Director & Head of Program, "this exhibition begins by reflecting on what the intentions and consequences of this push for equitable representation may be," she adds. The show, which is a focused version of a broader iteration that will be presented at TMR's Downtown LA space in Fall 2018, aims to create a parallel between recent approaches to figuration and the current sociopolitical climate shaping cultural institutions and industries in the US.
"In recent years we've seen a generation of young artists return to the figure in their work, specially across, painting, sculpture, and photography," says TMR Assistant Curator Nicolas Orozco-Valdivia. "This bolstered presence of the body in contemporary art, paired with a reinvigorated public debate about expanding the visibility of people of color in museums, film, television, theater, dance, music, and other creative fields, led us to begin to explore what the relationship between these two occurrences may be," he adds.
"Today, as we see more images of people of color in museums and on screen, a recurring conversation comes up in many of our studio visits that wonders how long this embrace of diversity will last and who in the end really benefits from the pictures and stories that these marked bodies inhabit," says Cesar Garcia, TMR Executive & Artistic Director. "As these marked bodies circulate in images, they become more easily consumable by the same institutions and industries that have historically been responsible for their invisibility," he states.
The exhibition brings together works by artists for whom this reverberating call for visibility is highly suspect. In their work, they resist, evade, and even undermine the image of the legible body. Through a visual language of concealment and obstruction, they assemble estranged and cryptic forms that resist immediate identification and in turn, compulsive consumption. In their work, opacity is both strategy and tactic—a way to cultivate intimate knowledges and forms of value that are purposefully meant not to be accessible to all.
This exhibition is also a fundraiser for TMR. "Benefit auctions are a common way to fundraise for non-profits, but they are incredibly demanding for artists. We've been thinking about different kinds of partnerships with artists so that they too can benefit from our fundraising efforts," says Garcia. Rather than stage an auction, this show is a selling exhibition. Half of all proceeds raised will go directly to participating artists and the other half to TMR in support of its programs. "We are deeply conscious of the need to re-imagine how alternative spaces can remain sustainable and autonomous," adds Garcia. "Creating these types of engagements in which we don't just ask artists to give, but rather, to work alongside us so that we can help sustain each other, is something we'll be doing more of moving forward," he adds.
Ronny Quevedo
Anonymous Gallery
Lago Erne 254,
Other Exhibitions 2
100 Sculptures
Anonymous Gallery · Mexico City, MX
SAN ISIDRO'S STILL
Feb 8 – Mar 9, 2019


Did you know that American doctors see more children for colds than any other medical condition? Research by the CDC found that children in the US miss a total of 22 million days of school annually from common colds. This year, the cold and flu season has been particularly brutal in the U.S. with more than 53 child deaths reported so far. The New York Times recently said that 77% of these cases tested positive for the H3N2 strain.
What happens when mom or dad get sick, too? The Integrated Benefits Institute found that businesses lose about $576 billion in annual revenue from workplace absences and a loss of productivity. Families also pay more than $10 billion annually in hospitalization costs, and 2018 is already shaping up to be a record year for these sicknesses. So, how do you reduce the risk of coming into contact with them?
A sore and scratchy throat is usually the first sign that you have an infection – viral or bacterial – related to a common cold or respiratory illness. Unfortunately, people often find themselves weathering their care at home which is both time-consuming, costly and prolonging discomfort. In most cases, it can be prevented by practicing affordable and straightforward techniques.
Did you know that regular hand-washing for 20 seconds will prevent 1/3 of stomach bugs and 1/5 of respiratory sicknesses? Using soap and water will lessen the chances of spreading germs to places in the home that every family member utilizes.
2. Avoid Touching Hands to Face.
Germs spread quickly from your hands to your eyes, nose, or mouth. It can also spread to your food which can lead to some severe medical conditions. With regular washing and avoiding the facial area, people significantly reduce the risk of germ contamination.
Nutrition from all of the food groups can strengthen your immune system, which will fight off harmful germs. If you cannot bring yourself to eat those carrots or broccoli, try a vitamin to keep your cells healthy.
Scientific American found that people who get less than 7 hours of sleep are three times more susceptible to sickness. Much like healthy eating, a lack of rest can compromise the immune system. If you really want to relax, try Nature's Jeannie Bath Soak or an electric blanket to help get a good night's rest.
Both children and the elderly are vulnerable to complications if dehydrated. Your body needs water to stay healthy, and without it, you are at risk for developing a sickness since your body cannot function correctly. Based on gender, you need to consume between 11 and 15 liters per day. Nature's Jeannie provides both a carafe and a teacup and saucer to help you maintain your health.
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Don't wait to address throat pain or throat discomfort. The longer you let it fester, it will get worse. Nip it quickly by gargling right away with a potent rinse that addresses both pain relief and the underlying issues causing the throat discomfort to begin with.Preventative or timely throat care is essential to staying well. The longer you wait to address what is causing your throat pain, the worse it will get. Be proactive. Cut recovery time in half and eliminate prolonged pain. Use a powerful throat gargle like Gargle Away® to soothe pain fast and also rinse away bacteria by 99% and more. How does it compare to salt-water gargling? Salt-water rinses away 0% of Strep bacteria, and about 40% of Staph-aureus bacteria and does not offer the comprehensive throat care benefits listed. 100% all-natural and gluten free, Nature's Jeannie offers an adult throat gargle called Gargle Away, and for children, Nature's Jeannie Throat Care Spray for Kid's 3+. The moment you feel that itchy, scratchy, irritated, sore throat address it with timely throat care to stay healthy!
Even without symptoms, a person can be contagious from one to ten days after coming into contact with a harmful microscopic organism. Even then, you may experience up to two weeks of fatigue to fully recover. These stats provide a significant argument as to why people should practice our recommended preventive care techniques.


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Politics/Law/Government
Japan and the whaling court ruling: not a great victory, but better than expected
By wufnik on April 1, 2014 • ( Leave a comment )
Several months ago we posted about in interesting case in front of The International Court of Justice at The Hague—about whaling. Specifically the Australian government had petitioned the court to prevent Japan from whaling in waters designated as a protection area for whales by the Australian government in the Southern Ocean. Japan has been continuing its whaling practices for several decades under the guise of "scientific research" in spite of a formal ban on whaling adopted by the International Whaling Commission in 1986. Well, yesterday the International Court of Justice, in a strong opinion that probably surprised even the most ardent supporters of Australia's suit, essentially called bullshit on Japan's policies.
Let The Guardian take over here:
The International Court of Justice has ordered a temporary halt to Japan's annual slaughter of whales in the southern ocean after concluding that the hunts are not, as Japan claims, conducted for scientific research.
The UN court's decision, by a 12-4 majority among a panel of judges, casts serious doubt over the long-term future of the jewel in the crown of Japan's controversial whaling programme.
This is a pretty strong majority. Note that it's a fairly limited ruling—the court did not find that the concept of scientific whaling was faulty, simply Japan's execution of it:
In a lengthy ruling, the presiding judge in the Hague, Peter Tomka, said Japan had failed to prove that its pursuit of hundreds of mainly minke whales in Antarctic waters every winter – under a programme known as Jarpa II – was for scientific purposes.
"The evidence does not establish that the programme's design and implementation are reasonable in relation to achieving its stated objectives," Tomka said.
"The court concludes that the special permits granted by Japan for the killing, taking and treating of whales in connection with Jarpa II are not for purposes of scientific research," he added, before ordering Japan to cease its whaling programme "with immediate effect".
Japan has indicated that it will abide by the ruling. However, it has also indicated that it may pursue a smaller whale hunt in response to the ruling, since it was the size and scope of Japan's "scientific whaling" program, not the concept underlying it, that formed the basis of the court's ruling.
This ruling also probably has put the kebash on the "scientific whaling" programs Russia and Korea have apparently been contemplating. It will, however, have no impact on the whaling practices currently conducted by Norway and Iceland—they have chosen to not be part of the International Whaling Commission, and are therefore not bound by its policies. It will also have no impact whatsover on the annual dolphin slaughter in Japan. The Guardian helpfully provides a compendium of responses to the decision here.
All of which means that Japan may be back in the oceans before too long, just not in as much force as before. So it's a victory, then, but perhaps not as large a victory as it could have been. Still, it's a better victory than anyone probably really expected, and I'll take whatever victories we can get these days. And, hey, Australia? Thanks.
The stamp above is of a Minke whale, the whale targeted by Japan for harvest. This is a dual issue stamp, issued simultaneously by Chile and Estonia. How these two countries got together to issue stamps is anybody's guess.
Categories: Politics/Law/Government, Science/Technology, World
Your Daily Devotional for April 1, 2014
NaPoWriMo 2014: write like nobody's reading
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text:
package org.fedoraproject.xmvn.metadata;

import org.fedoraproject.xmvn.artifact.Artifact;

/**
 * Provides access to results of metadata resolution.
 *
 * @author Mikolaj Izdebski
 */
public interface MetadataResult
{
    /**
     * Lookup metadata for specified artifact.
     *
     * @param artifact artifact to lookup metadata for
     * @return metadata for specified artifact, or {@code null} if this result doesn't contain metadata for specified
     *         artifact
     */
    ArtifactMetadata getMetadataFor( Artifact artifact );
}