text:
2. Data
3. Modulation of seasonal water vapor transport by ENSO
4. Modulation of 6-h IVT and height variability by ENSO
5. Summary and discussion
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Composite of seasonal mean (DJF) SST anomaly (K; shading) and 500-hPa geopotential height (Z500) anomaly (m; contour) for (a) EPEN, (b) CPEN, and (c) NINA. The Z500 contour interval is 10 m. Solid contours are positive, dashed contours are negative, and the zero contours are omitted. Green contours show statistical significance at the 90% level for Z500 obtained by a bootstrap method.
Composite of seasonal mean (DJF) IVT magnitude anomaly (kg m−1 s−1; shading) and the streamlines of direction of the mean IVT anomaly for (a) EPEN, (b) CPEN, and (c) NINA. Green contours show statistical significance at the 90% level for IVT magnitude.
Composite of seasonal mean (DJF) precipitation anomaly (mm day−1) averaged only over the land area within the purple (region A) and black (region B) boxes for (a) EPEN, (b) CPEN, and (c) NINA. Aqua contours show statistical significance at the 90% level.
Seasonal mean (DJF) precipitation anomaly (mm day−1) averaged over regions A and B for EPEN (solid bar), CPEN (vertical stripe), and NINA (stippled bar).
(a) Total variance of the IVT computed by 6-h values during DJF from 1979 to 2010 and the ratio of variance for the 6-hourly IVT between (b) EPEN, (c) CPEN, and (d) NINA and the total variance. Shaded area indicates where the ratio of variance is statistically significant at the 99% level by an F test.
Eigenvectors of the first EOF mode for 6-hourly IVT anomaly for (a) neutral years, (b) EPEN, (c) CPEN, and (d) NINA. Numbers indicate the percentage of variance of 6-hourly IVT anomalies in each ENSO phases. IVT anomalies are normalized by the total IVT daily standard deviation.
Probability of EOF PC1 normalized value for neutral (black), EPEN (red), CPEN (green), and NINA (blue) phases. Numbers in parentheses indicate the skewness of the probability for each phase.
EOF PC-based composites of 6-h 500-hPa height (m; contour interval is 30 m) and IVT (kg m−1 s−1; shading) anomalies associated with the leading IVT EOF modes in each ENSO phase: (a) neutral, (b) EPEN, (c) CPEN, and (d) NINA.
ENSO's Modulation of Water Vapor Transport over the Pacific–North American Region
Hye-Mi Kim 1 and Michael A. Alexander 2
1 School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York
2 NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado
The vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) over the Pacific–North American sector during three phases of ENSO in boreal winter (December–February) is investigated using IVT values calculated from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) during 1979–2010. The shift of the location and sign of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean leads to different atmospheric responses and thereby changes the seasonal mean moisture transport into North America. During eastern Pacific El Niño (EPEN) events, large positive IVT anomalies extend northeastward from the subtropical Pacific into the northwestern United States following the anomalous cyclonic flow around a deeper Aleutian low, while a southward shift of the cyclonic circulation during central Pacific El Niño (CPEN) events induces the transport of moisture into the southwestern United States. In addition, moisture from the eastern tropical Pacific is transported from the deep tropical eastern Pacific into Mexico and the southwestern United States during CPEN. During La Niña (NINA), the seasonal mean IVT anomaly is opposite to that of two El Niño phases. Analyses of 6-hourly IVT anomalies indicate that there is strong moisture transport from the North Pacific into the northwestern and southwestern United States during EPEN and CPEN, respectively. The IVT is maximized on the southeastern side of a low located over the eastern North Pacific, where the low is weaker but located farther south and closer to shore during CPEN than during EPEN. Moisture enters the southwestern United States from the eastern tropical Pacific during NINA via anticyclonic circulation associated with a ridge over the southern United States.
Corresponding author address: Hye-Mi Kim, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794. E-mail: hyemi.kim@stonybrook.edu
Keywords: Atmospheric circulation; ENSO; Large-scale motions; Climate variability
Heavy winter precipitation in the western United States is significantly affected by long narrow bands of water vapor transport from the tropical/subtropical North Pacific into midlatitudes. Often these water vapor plumes originate near Hawaii and are known colloquially as the "Pineapple Express" (e.g., Lackmann and Gyakum 1999). The more general case of strong tropical–extratropical water vapor transport was termed "tropospheric rivers" by Newell et al. (1992) and then "atmospheric rivers" (ARs) by Zhu and Newell (1998). ARs generally occur ahead of cold fronts associated with winter storms. The maximum number of ARs occurs over the northeastern Pacific Ocean and after landfall they induce nearly twice as much precipitation as non-AR storms in the western United States (Zhu and Newell 1998; Neiman et al. 2008; Waliser et al. 2012). The critical role of ARs in hydrometeorological extremes, such as the total amount of precipitation, streamflow, and mountain snowpack in the western United States, has been extensively explored while the AR–precipitation relationship heavily depends on the definition of an AR (Dettinger 2004; Ralph et al. 2006; Dettinger et al. 2011; Neiman et al. 2011; Warner et al. 2012; Guan et al. 2012, 2013).
While ARs provide a useful framework for storm-based moisture transport, the definition of an AR is subjective; that is, it is based on an arbitrary length, width, and magnitude of a plume of the vertically integrated water vapor (IWV) or integrated water vapor transport (IVT). Therefore, depending on the definition, one can get very different measures of ARs and their overall impact on precipitation. For example, Rutz et al. (2014) compared ARs defined using both IVT and IWV and found sizable differences in frequency and duration of events, especially in the inland penetration of moisture. In addition, non-AR processes, such as cutoff lows or cases where the moisture comes from the extratropics as opposed to the subtropics, can also lead to precipitation in the western North America. Therefore, in this study, we do not identify ARs, but rather examine the IVT and its impact on precipitation directly.
While the variability of water vapor transport and ARs have been studied extensively on synoptic time scales, only a few recent studies have explored the link between the water vapor transport and large-scale climate variability on subseasonal-to-interannual time scales. Jiang and Deng (2011) and Jiang et al. (2014) linked East Asian cold surges with subsequent AR activity over the eastern North Pacific and western North America. Guan et al. (2012) found a strong connection between AR landfalls in the Sierra Nevada and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO; Madden and Julian 1972), especially when the MJO-driven convection is located over the tropical western Pacific. Guan et al. (2013) examined the influence of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific–North American (PNA) mode on water vapor transport and the Sierra Nevada snowpack. The coexistence of the negative phases of AO and PNA induces favorable condition for southwesterly winds impinging on the Sierra Nevada, enhancing the water vapor transport, snowfall, and the mountain snowpack (Guan et al. 2013).
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which results from large-scale ocean–atmosphere interaction in the tropical Pacific, influences the global climate via changes in the atmospheric circulation, especially over the PNA region (e.g., Ropelewski and Halpert 1987). The precipitation amount over the North Pacific and United States varies between the warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases of ENSO, while the teleconnection between ENSO and U.S. precipitation varies with time (van Oldenborgh and Burgers 2005; Mo 2010). Given that ENSO modulates both the large-scale circulation and the precipitation amount, it is natural to ask how the moisture transport from tropical and extratropical Pacific to North America would be affected by ENSO variability. The connection between ENSO and moisture transport, however, has received limited attention. Dettinger (2004) and Bao et al. (2006) hypothesized that the neutral ENSO phase is the most favorable condition for the direct entrainment of tropical water vapor into the west coast of North America, while the warm phase of ENSO results in an unfavorable condition for water vapor transport by strengthening the subtropical ridge. In contrast, the results of Guan et al. (2013) suggest that the warm phase of ENSO is more favorable for stronger ARs than the cold phase of ENSO. However, while Guan et al. (2013) examined the influence of ENSO on ARs, they focused on the impact on California rather than the whole North American coast and limited their analysis to a brief recent period (1998–2011). Moreover, the different types of ENSO may impact where the ARs and associated moisture transport reach North America and penetrate into the interior. Therefore, we investigate the impact of different types of ENSO events on moisture transport over the North Pacific and western North America during a 32-yr period.
Recent studies have suggested that the warm phase of ENSO can be distinguished into two distinct types based on the spatial distribution of SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean (Ashok et al. 2007; Kao and Yu 2009; Kug et al. 2009, and many others). In eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño years, or canonical El Niño events, the SST anomaly is maximized near the coast of South America to about 150°W, whereas in central Pacific (CP) El Niño years the SST anomaly maximum is located farther west, near the date line. This CP-type El Niño has occurred more frequently in the recent decade (Kug et al. 2009; Yeh et al. 2009; Lee and McPhaden 2010). While it is still controversial as to whether there are two distinct forms of El Niño or a continuum of warm ENSO states (Newman et al. 2011a,b; Johnson 2013; Capotondi et al. 2015), the shift in the location of SST anomalies leads to different atmospheric responses, which have significantly different impacts on North American climate (Barsugli and Sardeshmukh 2002; Mo 2010; Yu et al. 2012; Yu and Zou 2013). While EP El Niño forcing excites a wave train emanating from the tropical Pacific into the southern United States, which projects strongly on the tropical Northern Hemisphere pattern, CP El Niño excites a wave train resembling the PNA pattern (Mo 2010; Yu et al. 2012). In conjunction with these large scale-circulation changes, the jet steam and storm track shift south in CP relative to EP Niño events, thereby increasing the precipitation in the southwestern United States (Mo 2010; Yu and Zou 2013).
In this study, we will examine how the three ENSO categories, EP El Niño (EPEN), CP El Niño (CPEN), and La Niña (NINA) modulate the large-scale atmospheric circulation variability, and thereby change the water vapor transport into western North America. Improved understanding of the influence of ENSO on the water vapor transport may enhance seasonal prediction of heavy precipitation and floods in the western United States. The paper is organized as follows: the data are described in section 2; the seasonal and variations at 6-h and longer time scales of water vapor transport and their associated circulation fields during the three ENSO phases are examined in sections 3 and 4, respectively. The results are summarized in section 5.
IVT is defined as
where g is the gravitational acceleration, V is the vector wind, p is the pressure, and q is the specific humidity. The water vapor transport is vertically integrated from the surface to 300 hPa with 6-hourly data over a portion of the Northern Hemisphere (10°–75°N, 160°E–60°W). The specific humidity, wind, and geopotential height fields are obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR; Saha et al. 2010). The CFSR is the product of a coupled ocean–atmosphere–land system, where the resolution of the spectral atmospheric model is T382 (~40 km) with 64 vertical levels. The resolution of CFSR is finer than NCEP reanalysis versions 1 and 2 used in many previous AR studies. The analysis fields are archived on a 0.5° latitude and longitude grid at 6-h intervals from January 1979 to December 2010. SST data are obtained from monthly NOAA Optimum Interpolation SST version 2 (Reynolds et al. 2002) and the precipitation from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) version 2.2 (Adler et al. 2003).
We focus on the boreal winter season from December to February (DJF). ENSO phases are classified in three categories. EP El Niño winters (four seasons: 1982/83, 1986/87, 1997/98, and 2006/07, hereafter EPEN) and CP El Niño winters (four seasons: 1994/95, 2002/03, 2004/05, and 2009/10, hereafter CPEN) are selected based on the classification in Yu and Zou (2013), who identified the EP and CP El Niño years by the majority consensus from various EP/CP index classification methods. Unlike El Niño events, La Niña events are less distinctive in terms of spatial structure (Kug et al. 2009; Kug and Ham 2011) and thus are not separated into different phases. Therefore, La Niña winters are selected based on the Niño-3.4 index (four seasons: 1988/89, 1998/99, 1999/2000, and 2007/08, hereafter NINA). The 19 years that are not in the EPEN, CPEN, or NINA categories are selected as neutral years. A bootstrap technique is applied to determine statistical significance of the composite anomalies. For each ENSO event, a composite anomaly is constructed with 4 years chosen at random from among the 31 years of data and then this process is repeated 10 000 times to obtain a probability distribution at the 90% level.
Composite maps of the boreal winter SST anomaly and 500-hPa geopotential height (Z500) anomalies during the three ENSO categories are shown in Fig. 1. Contours indicate statistical significance of the Z500 anomalies at the 90% level. The maximum SST anomaly in CPEN (Fig. 1b) is reduced in magnitude and shifted westward toward the central equatorial Pacific Ocean relative to EPEN events (Fig. 1a), similar to results in previous studies (Kug et al. 2009; Yeh et al. 2009; Lee and McPhaden 2010; Yu et al. 2012; Yu and Zou 2013). NINA years show a broad negative SST anomaly extending from 150°E to the South American coast. The corresponding large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in three ENSO categories exhibit distinct characteristics. In both El Niño phases, a low pressure anomaly occurs over the North Pacific Ocean associated with an eastward shift and an intensification of the Aleutian low. This deep trough is centered near 50°N, 150°W for EPEN, whereas the low is shifted to the southwest, centered near 37°N, 160°W, and is reduced in amplitude for CPEN. The opposite to both El Niño phases, with an anomalous high over the eastern North Pacific, occurs during La Niña events (Fig. 1; also see Yeh et al. 2009; Yu et al. 2012). While the atmospheric response pattern to NINA forcing is the opposite to both types of El Niño events, the pattern more closely resembles the inverse of CPEN than EPEN. As described earlier, La Niña events are less variable in longitude, since the SST anomalies during cold events are already shifted to the west relative to conventional El Niño events (Kug et al. 2009; Kug and Ham 2011).
Citation: Journal of Climate 28, 9; 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00725.1
Composite maps of the magnitude and direction of the anomalous IVT during winter for the three categories of ENSO are shown in Fig. 2. EPEN events exhibit large positive IVT anomalies extending northeastward from the subtropical Pacific into the northwestern United States along the anomalous cyclonic flow (Fig. 2a). Significant negative IVT anomalies are found over the subtropical North Pacific (20°–30°N), likely due to northerly flow, and over the United States where easterlies from the relatively dry continent restrict the transport of moisture.
Associated with the equatorward shift of the cyclonic circulation over the North Pacific in CPEN relative to EPEN, the anomalous IVT also shifts south (Fig. 2b). The southeastern edge of the cyclonic circulation extends toward North America at about 30°N and transports moisture into the far southwestern United States. Given that the moisture is generally higher at lower latitudes, the southward shift of the cyclonic circulation in CPEN may transport more water vapor into the United States even though the circulation intensity is weaker than during EPEN. There is also a direct path from the deep tropics into Mexico and extending into the southwestern United States in CPEN that is distinct from the large-scale cyclonic circulation over the North Pacific (Fig. 2b).
In NINA, the seasonal mean IVT anomaly is opposite to the anomalies during the two El Niño phases. A significant positive IVT anomaly occurs between 35° and 50°N west of 140°W, associated with the anticyclonic circulation response to La Niña SST anomalies (Fig. 2c). Significant negative IVT anomalies around 30°N occur on the southern side of the anticyclonic anomaly, likely associated with the advection of relatively cold and dry air. In the subtropics (10°–20°N), flow off Mexico results in reduced IVT over the far eastern Pacific, while farther offshore the circulation anomalies result in stronger trade winds (e.g., see Larkin and Harrison 2002), which could enhance evaporation and lead to positive IVT anomalies. Weak positive IVT anomalies occur over most of the western United States associated with northerly flow.
The land-only precipitation anomalies during the three ENSO categories are shown in Fig. 3. The northwestern United States and southwestern Canada (region A: 40°–58°N, 130°–120°W; precipitation averaged only over land within the purple box in Fig. 3) experience enhanced precipitation relative to climatology in EPEN, but reduced precipitation in CPEN (Fig. 3b), which is consistent with the results from Yu and Zou (2013). However, the enhanced precipitation in region A for EPEN mainly results from two super El Niños (1982/83 and 1997/98), while the moderate El Niño cases (1986/87 and 2009/10) are near normal (Yu and Zou 2013), as discussed further in section 5. During NINA events, the precipitation in region A is slightly above normal (Fig. 3c). The precipitation anomaly is 0.81 mm day−1 for EPEN, −0.56 mm day−1 for CPEN, and 0.24 mm day−1 for NINA in region A (Fig. 4). The positive precipitation anomaly averaged over the southwestern United States (region B: 20°–40°N, 122°–108°W; black box in Fig. 3) is the greatest for CPEN among the ENSO categories with values of 0.18 mm day−1 for EPEN, 0.47 mm day−1 for CPEN, and −0.31 mm day−1 for NINA (Fig. 4). For CPEN, the precipitation anomaly is positive over California, Arizona, and Mexico, where the IVT anomaly is also positive. In EPEN, the precipitation anomaly is slightly positive in region B despite a negative IVT anomaly. However, while IVT is critical for bringing moisture to the western United States in winter, precipitation is directly related to moisture flux convergence (∇ ⋅ IVT).
Next, we investigate the characteristics of IVT variability based on anomalies obtained by subtracting the long-term (1979–2010) monthly mean from the instantaneous 6-h values during DJF. The IVT variance over the full record exhibits a zonal band of enhanced variance in central North Pacific with a domain maximum at approximately 32°N, 180° that extends toward the northwestern United States (Fig. 5a). The high variance primarily results from the passage of midlatitude cyclones (see, e.g., Newman et al. 2012) and their alternating regions of enhanced (reduced) moisture transport on the eastern (western) side of cold fronts. Figures 5b–d show the 6-h IVT variance in each ENSO category divided by the total variance (Fig. 5a), where the significance of the change in the ENSO–total variance ratio is evaluated using an F test and only significant values are shaded. The IVT variability differs between the three ENSO categories. Relative to the total variance, the variance during EPEN (Fig. 5b) is greater over central Mexico (green/blue shading) and smaller over the subtropics and the western half of the United States. For CPEN (Fig. 5c), the variability is stronger over most of Mexico and the adjacent Pacific Ocean. The CPEN IVT variance is reduced over much of the North Pacific west of about 120°W with the exception of a narrow band that extends from approximately 25°N, 180° to the Washington coast (~47°N, 124°W). During NINA winters the variance is enhanced around 40°N over the central North Pacific Ocean and reduced across the all longitudes from approximately 20° to 30°N (Fig. 5d). The variability is also slightly greater (weaker) over portions of the southwestern (northwestern) United States.
We analyze the leading patterns of 6-h IVT variability and associated 500-hPa height anomalies based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis that is applied to 6-h IVT anomalies for the total period and for each of three ENSO categories. Given the wide range in IVT variability as a function of location, (e.g., it is much greater over the ocean than over land), we first normalize the anomalies by dividing them by the local standard deviation of the total 6-h IVT before computing the EOFs. We note that the eigenvectors (EOF patterns) are nearly identical between ENSO phases if the EOF analysis is performed using nonnormalized IVT anomalies (not shown). To emphasize the high IVT variability over western North America, we also computed EOFs using IVT values only over land. While this raises the percent variance explained by the leading EOFs and enhances the anomaly magnitude in specific geographic locations (Alexander et al. 2015), the patterns are not clearly distinguishable between the three ENSO phases (not shown).
The leading EOF for the full period and the three ENSO phases (Fig. 6) explains approximately 10% of the variance for EPEN and NINA, approximately 15% for CPEN, and approximately 12% for neutral years. The percentage variance explained is relatively low, since we use the 6-hourly anomalies with the biggest amplitude over the ocean, leading to patterns that are not tightly tied to specific geographic locations. While the state of ENSO influences the location and strength of winter storms and the large-scale moisture field, the overall IVT variability is still dominated by internal atmospheric processes associated with moving extratropical cyclones.
The second mode explains only a small amount of variance and is not distinguishable from the lower-order EOFs; therefore, we will only focus on the first mode. For the neutral years (Fig. 6a), the leading eigenvector is characterized by anomalies of one sign (positive for this phase of the EOF) that extends northeastward from the Hawaiian Islands to the southwestern United States, with a maximum over the far eastern Pacific. There is a much weaker anomaly of the opposite sign to the northwest. While the EOF by itself does not convey the sign and magnitude of the pattern associated with the EOF, the principal component (PC) does. The probability distribution of the leading PC (the time series of the phase and amplitude of the corresponding EOF), as indicated by a histogram of the first PC (PC1) values, is shown in Fig. 7. The distribution of PC1 for the neutral period is positively skewed (skewness is 0.69), indicating that very large positive IVT anomalies are more common than large negative values over the southwestern United States.
For EPEN, the first EOF (EOF1) pattern is similar to that in the neutral years, but the maximum is shifted to the north and west near 35°N, 135°W, and higher values extend into the northwestern rather than the southwestern United States (Fig. 6b). Anomalies of the opposite sign are found over the northwestern and southeastern corners of the domain. While the skewness of PC1 for EPEN is smaller than in the other ENSO phases, it is still positively skewed (skewness is 0.16), indicating that large positive IVT anomalies extending from the subtropical Pacific to the western United States are more common than large negative values in this region (Fig. 7). The EOF1 IVT pattern during CPEN has a pronounced dipole with a northern band that extends from the subtropics to the northwestern United States and a southern center located in the vicinity of Baja California (Fig. 6c). PC1 is positively skewed (Fig. 7; skewness is 0.26), indicating that large positive values are more common over Mexico and the southern United States than large negative values. For NINA, the EOF1 of IVT also exhibits a dipole with one center over California, Arizona, and New Mexico, and the opposite sign anomalies extending over the North Pacific Ocean from approximately 30°N, 170°W to 50°N, 140°W. The NINA PC1 values are also positively skewed (skewness is 0.21).
The IVT and 500-hPa height anomalies are examined using composite analysis of 6-hourly databased on the leading PC obtained from different ENSO phases. The composite averages are computed using the nonnormalized values at the times when PC1 is greater than positive two standard deviations for each of the ENSO phases. The IVT and Z500 anomaly composites are shown in Fig. 8. In neutral years (Fig. 8a), the composite IVT anomaly patterns are similar to the corresponding leading EOF, where the low pressure center is located just off the coast of California with a maximum around 38°N, 140°W. This trough exhibits a southwest–northeast tilt and the associated cyclonic circulation transports moisture from the subtropics to Baja California to nearly all of the U.S. West Coast.
Unlike the other periods, the moisture source appears to be primarily extratropical for EPEN (Fig. 8b), with a positive IVT anomaly extending from approximately 30°N, 160°W in the Pacific to the northwestern U.S. coast. The anomalous height pattern exhibits a very deep zonally elongated trough centered at approximately 41°N, 155°W, with a strong gradient along the eastern edge of the trough that parallels the northwestern U.S. coast, which is similar to the seasonal mean EPEN pattern (Fig. 1a). The strong low pressure anomaly induces strong moisture transport from the North Pacific toward the northwestern United States with large amount of transport into coastal Oregon but a modest amount on inland penetration of moisture (Fig. 8b). In EPEN winter, this circulation pattern occurs frequently and thus could result in enhanced seasonal precipitation in the northwestern United States (Fig. 3a).
For CPEN, a large positive IVT anomaly extends from the subtropical eastern Pacific Ocean across Baja California and Mexico and into the southwestern United States (Fig. 8c). The associated low pressure anomaly is shifted southeastward compared to EPEN and is located just off the California coast, where the cyclonic circulation induces a large amount of water vapor transport into the southwestern United States. The strong negative IVT anomaly over the northeastern Pacific Ocean is found along the strong gradient between the ridge centered at approximately 50°N, 140°W and a trough centered at approximately 30°N, 125°W, where the associated northeasterly flow transports colder/dryer air, some coming from North America, over the Pacific Ocean. Frequent occurrence of this pattern would result in heavy seasonal precipitation over the southwestern United States and a deficit in the northwestern United States and British Columbia (Fig. 3b).
For NINA, the dominant anomalous circulation is distinctly different from the patterns during both El Niño phases and the neutral years (Fig. 8d). For NINA, there are two high pressure anomalies, one over the southern United States and one over the North Pacific Ocean, with low pressure anomalies over the subtropics and northwestern United States. Moisture enters the southwestern United States via the anticyclonic circulation on the far western side of the ridge centered over Texas. The flow associated with the strong anticyclone over the North Pacific and cyclonic anomaly over the Pacific Northwest transports relatively cold/dry air from higher latitudes resulting in negative IVT anomalies from Canada to the central Pacific.
The change in the location and sign of SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean associated with different phases of ENSO alter the large-scale atmospheric state, and thus have different impacts on the climate over the Pacific–North American region. In this study, we investigate how the three phases of ENSO (i.e., eastern Pacific and central Pacific El Niños as well as La Niña; EPEN, CPEN, and NINA, respectively) modulate the atmospheric circulation and thereby change the water vapor transport into western North America.
In EPEN, large positive seasonal IVT anomalies extend northeastward from the subtropical Pacific into the northwestern United States following the anomalous cyclonic flow around an anomalously deep Aleutian low. In CPEN, a southward shift of the cyclonic circulation over the North Pacific, which extends toward California, induces moisture transport into the southwestern United States. There is also a second IVT pathway into North America during CPEN; that is, moisture from the eastern tropical Pacific is transported across Mexico and into the southwestern United States. For NINA, the opposite circulation arises with an anticyclonic anomaly over the North Pacific and significant negative IVT anomalies at approximately 30°N on the southern side of this anticyclone.
The characteristics of the 6-h IVT anomalies during different ENSO phases have been explored by EOF and composite analyses. For EPEN, anomalous height pattern exhibits a very deep zonally elongated trough centered at approximately 40°N, 150°W, which induces strong moisture transport from the North Pacific to the northwestern U.S. coast but with a modest amount on inland penetration of moisture. For CPEN, the low pressure anomaly is shifted southeastward compared to EPEN and is located just off the California coast, where the cyclonic circulation induces a large amount of water vapor transport into the southwestern United States. For NINA, moisture enters the southwestern United States via anticyclonic circulation.
The water vapor transport associated with ARs is responsible for heavy snowfall and flooding events in western North America during winter. It is also the main source of water for the western United States (Ralph and Dettinger 2011), providing 25%–50% of California's water supply (Guan et al. 2013; Dettinger et al. 2011). A recent study by Alexander et al. (2015) found that during winter, moist air parcels from the Pacific take distinct pathways through gaps in the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and peninsular mountains of Baja California, leading to extreme precipitation events in the U.S. Intermountain West. Our results indicate that CPEN events may enhance heavy precipitation in the southwestern states such as Arizona and New Mexico, but the overall influence of ENSO on the moisture transport into the U.S. Intermountain West and its predictability should be explored in greater detail.
In this study, we have used a high-resolution reanalysis that began in 1979, which includes satellite data. While this greatly improves the representation of ARs and IVT relative to coarse-resolution but longer reanalyses, it limits the composite analyses to just four cases for each ENSO phase. In addition, ENSO-related precipitation anomalies vary widely from episode to episode (e.g., Ropelewski and Halpert 1987). For example, the western United States was extremely dry during the 1976/77 El Niño but anomalously wet during the strong 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events. Thus, the impact of variations in ENSO on water vapor transport and precipitation over the Pacific–North American region should be investigated further using longer datasets, where possible, and by model experiments.
The constructive and valuable comments of two reviewers are greatly appreciated. Kim was supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant APCC 2013-3141. Alexander was supported by grants from the Bureau of Reclamation. We thank James D. Scott for providing the IVT data and Drs. Kathy Pegion (GMU) and Klaus Wolter (NOAA/ESRL) for their insightful suggestions.


Photo of Evelyn DeBadts and interviewer Jim Hopkins. Photo courtesy of Sandi Hamilton who also conducted the interview in September 2018.
The scales are from Catlin's Meat Market that used to be on West Main Street where the flower shop is now located. Photo courtesy of Sandi Hamilton.
In this interview, Evelyn talks about school life in the Alton school, working at the Normandy Inn, Tack family stories, the Wallington Cobblestone School, Lake Breeze Fruit Farm and family ghost stories.


Hemingway claims that Allen attempted to lure her to Paris once she turned 18—two years after she had filmed Manhattan. "Our relationship was platonic, but I started to see that he had a kind of crush on me, though I dismissed it as the kind of thing that seemed to happen any time middle-aged men got around young women," writes Hemingway. The actress suggests that Allen attempted to act upon the crush by flying to her parents' home in Idaho and inviting the teen to Europe.
"I didn't know what the [sleeping] arrangement was going to be [in Paris]...I wasn't sure if I was even going to have my own room. Woody hadn't said that. He hadn't even hinted it. But I wanted them to put their foot down. They didn't. They kept lightly encouraging me."
Hemingway says that she woke up at night with the realization that "[n]o one was going to get their own room. His plan, such as it was, involved being with me." She says that she went into his guest room and woke him up asking, "I'm not going to get my own room, am I? I can't go to Paris with you."
Allen left the next day.
Hemingway has previously claimed that she never felt uncomfortable on the set of Manhattan, but that Allen "[made] me feel incredibly intelligent. He took me to museums and concerts. He gave me his wisdom, and you can see that in the character." She also says that their onscreen kiss was her first: "Fortunately it was a long shot and I didn't have to do much...he attacked me like I was a linebacker."
America's most revered director, ladies and gentleman!


The closing verse of Psalm 51 feels like a U-turn. After saying in verse 16 For you have no delight in sacrifice, the writer seems to take the opposite tack to describe a time when God will not only welcome, but delight in sacrifices. For some scholars, this is one of the indications that verses 18 and 19 were later additions to the psalm.
While noting that real possibility, there's another interpretation that Old Testament scholar Walter Brueggeman suggests we might want to consider. Might it be the case that once the psalmist approached God for mercy, once he acknowledged the stains on his life, once he sought to be cleansed, and once he offered a contrite heart — perhaps it was only then that the sacrifices that he offered were acceptable and pleasing to God.
We may have made some sacrifices during these weeks of Lent as we sought to follow our Lord to the cross. They may have included fasting, doing an extra service for others, or maybe foregoing some favorite food or other comfort. Whatever it has been, I pray that along the way we have become just a bit more attuned to God's mercy, just a bit more mindful of the rough or broken edges in our own lives, and a bit more grateful for the gift that awaits us at weeks' end.
We pray that you will accept our efforts to worship you , to serve you, and to serve those around us who are in need. Nurture in us an even greater devotion and commitment to you and the gospel of our Lord and Savior.
If this verse is a later addition to the psalm, then the circumstances of this verse is that Jerusalem is in ruins. Her walls, the security of cities of the day, had been reduced to heaps of rubble during the Babylonian conquest. The city, such as it was, was defenseless.
In just a few days now we will gather to commemorate that last supper in the upper room on Maundy Thursday; and then we'll confront the darkness of Good Friday. Imagining that the rock of our salvation, the cornerstone of our faith is going toward the cross and to his death is sorrowful and depressing. On this side of the cross, the prospect that our Lord is preparing to suffer and die may leave us feeling like that Jerusalem of centuries ago — battered, in disarray, and defenseless.
And that's the way it will be for a few days.
Help us to walk with you as we make our way through this week. As we go, we may need to step around the debris of our world and our lives. There is too much brokenness around us and in us. But thankfully your predictions of your passion also come with an assurance of your resurrection — a time of renewal and rebuilding.


The Great Lakes Hotel LTD.
A stay at The Great Lakes Hotel LTD. places you in the heart of Kisumu, within a 15-minute walk of Lake Victoria and Kisumu Clock Tower. Featured amenities include dry cleaning/laundry services, a 24-hour front desk, and multilingual staff. Event facilities at this hotel consist of a conference center and a meeting room. Free self parking is available onsite.


As you approach retirement age, it's important to understand when to take your Social Security benefits and what impact those benefits have on your overall retirement income strategy. The following article looks at how you can determine what your benefit amount will be and how to maximize your Social Security benefits during retirement.
Social Security is an important part of any retirement planning discussion. Understanding the ins and outs of Social Security Benefits and how they work in conjunction with your investment portfolio, pension and other sources of retirement income can be confusing. Once you understand what benefits you and your spouse may qualify for, deciding when to start the benefits, and how those benefits will impact other areas of your retirement plan such as pension payments or withdrawals from your portfolio, takes serious planning and consideration.
• Your individual benefit amount and whether it makes sense to apply based upon your earnings or your spouse's earnings.
• Age at which you are eligible for and/or should begin taking benefits.
• Maximum benefit you qualify for and the impact of taking benefits before or after your Full Retirement Age (FRA).
• Tax implications of drawing benefits prior to FRA.
• Whether you should delay drawing Social Security Benefits and draw from your portfolio instead in order to maximize your Social Security Benefits.
In looking at Social Security, the first thing you need to understand is how your benefits are calculated. The Social Security Administration, prior to 2011, would send a Social Security Benefit statement annually which gave a breakdown of your potential benefits. They discontinued that service in April 2011 which was estimated to cost approximately $70 million annually to print and mail. Now, you need to go to their website at www.ssa.gov and access that information online or talk with your nearest Social Security office. With the widespread availability of the internet to citizens in the US, especially when you take into account free availability at most public libraries, I am glad the government cut their expenses in this one area by eliminating paper statements.
When starting to review your Social Security Benefits, this statement is a great place to start. In addition, the Social Security website provides you with a variety of resources to determine benefits you may be eligible for and includes online tools and calculators to help you estimate your potential benefits.
Also, keep in mind, that for a spouse who earned significantly less than their higher-earning spouse, it may also make sense to apply for benefits based upon their spouse's earnings rather than their own earnings. Generally, the benefit will amount to 50% of the higher-earning spouses benefit if you take benefits at your Full Retirement Age. If you start drawing at age 62, you could receive as little as 32.5% of the higher-earning spouse's benefit amount. This calculation will not show up on your personal benefit statement, but should always be considered in any planning scenario. The Social Security Administration can provide this information if they are contacted via phone toll-free at 1-800-772-1213 or at your nearest Social Security office.
For most people, as long as you have worked for 10 years, you become eligible for Social Security Benefits as early as age 62. However, by taking benefits at age 62, you will receive a permanently reduced benefit. Therefore, many people wait until their Full Retirement Age (FRA) is reached to take benefits. If you can wait beyond your FRA to take benefits (up to age 70) you will receive an even higher monthly benefit amount than if you started drawing benefits at FRA. For anyone born in 1943 or later, you increase your benefit amount by 8% for each year you delay past your FRA.
Your Full Retirement Age (FRA) is based on the year you were born. Persons born between 1943 and 1954 reach FRA at age 66. If you were born after 1954 and up to 1960, your FRA increases by two months each year. If you are born after 1960, then 67 is your FRA.
For example, if you were born in 1965, then your FRA would be age 67. Then, if you took your Social Security Benefits at age 62, the amount you would receive would be reduced by 30 percent, and the reduction rate would diminish each year by approximately 5% to 6% until age 67 when you would have no reduction in benefits. However, if you delayed past age 67, you would increase your benefit by 8% each year up to age 70 for a maximum benefit equal to 124% of the amount you would've received had you drawn at age 67.
From an actuarial point of view, drawing at age 62 or FRA are considered equivalent if you live until age 82. However, due to COLAs (Cost of Living Adjustments), the break even age is actually about 76. Thus, every year that a person who draws at 62 lives past age 76 they are then falling behind on the amount they could have received had they waited until their FRA to start collecting.
Deciding when you, and your spouse, should take your Social Security Benefits is a very personal and irrevocable decision. First, many people are working well into their 60s and may not need the money at age 62 or even at their Full Retirement Age. However, some people have health conditions that preclude them from working and Social Security Benefits become a much more vital part of their retirement income earlier than most other individuals. It is also important to factor into your Social Security Benefit decision any other sources of income you may be receiving such as a pension and/or withdrawals from a retirement portfolio. For example, if you are comfortable living off of your company pension and do not need additional income to supplement your living expenses, you may wish to delay Social Security Benefits rather than taken them early which, ultimately, increases the monthly amount that you receive for the rest of your life. Also, if you receive a pension, but your spouse does not, it may be necessary for one or both of you to take Social Security Benefits early in order to supplement the pension amounts.
If you continue working and decide to draw benefits prior to your Full Retirement Age (FRA) you may lose some of your monthly benefit. For instance, if you are still working at age 62 and start drawing benefits, you will lose $1 in benefits for every $2 of earned income over $15,480 (amount is adjusted annually for inflation). However, if you are not working, but your spouse is working, you will not lose benefits. This particular aspect of Social Security is tied to your individual earnings rather than joint earnings. In most situations, it does not make sense to draw Social Security Benefits prior to FRA while you are working and earning more than $15,480.
Some advisors suggest that you draw benefits immediately upon reaching age 62, even if you don't need the income, and invest the monies every month, but generally, I do not approve of that strategy. In most situations, it makes sense to defer benefits, which allows you to receive a larger monthly benefit for the rest of your life once you do start drawing (and needing) benefits.
Thus, by owning municipal bonds or bond funds you will not necessarily avoid paying taxes on your Social Security benefits as the interest on those investments is added back into the equation. However, deferring income by avoiding or reducing withdrawals from IRAs or deferring income by investing in an annuity can help you to avoid paying tax on your Social Security Benefits. Remember though, that avoiding taxes on your benefits may be insignificant when compared to the high price of a variable annuity or other tax-deferral strategy if you do not carefully consider all costs and fees associated with those programs.
Generally speaking, the best way to maximize your Social Security Benefits is by delaying, up until age 70, to receive benefits. As mentioned earlier, your benefit increases 8% each year you delay past your Full Retirement Age (FRA). There is also a strategy known as "file and suspend", which can be used to maximize benefits where the lower earning spouse would draw a spousal benefit only once both husband and wife reach age 66, and the higher earning spouse, or both, would delay receiving a full benefit based on their own earnings until age 70.
If you retire before age 70 and want to maximize your Social Security benefits by delaying receipt until age 70, generally, you are looking at withdrawing from your investment portfolio to cover your income gap assuming that there is one.
The problem with this strategy is that an investment portfolio tends to be more volatile and fluctuates more so than the steady and reliable fixed income you would receive when taking Social Security Benefits. Further, the erosion of your investment principal in the early years of retirement if the market performs negatively while you are drawing from it could make it difficult to recover from. However, when you take into account that your Social Security Benefit increases by 8% each year you delay, this can be a strong motivator and is very powerful when you consider the higher amount will continue to be paid for the rest of your life (and/or your spouse's life).
What you are banking on is that you live long enough to recoup the amount you didn't receive by waiting to draw benefits and that the reduction in your portfolio from withdrawals doesn't otherwise impede your ability to attain your long-term goals. Because of COLAs (Cost of Living Adjustments), the breakeven age for those who delay until age 70 to draw benefits is approximately age 78.
In summary, there are a variety of important factors to consider when making decisions about your Social Security benefits. Some issues such as divorced spouse benefits, widow benefits and a more thorough discussion of file and suspend strategies were not included in this article in order to keep it a reasonable length, but you may need to consider those or other issues as well. Furthermore, the long-term viability of the Social Security program has been called into question for a variety of reasons, but most planners including ourselves consider that the program will continue to pay for the foreseeable future. While these decisions can be easy for many of us, not all situations are easy to wade through. As always, if we can be assistance in helping you with your Social Security planning or retirement planning in general, please do not hesitate to contact us at 248-932-5200.
Scott Whyte is a financial advisor with Bloom Asset Management and has been successfully serving client's investment needs since 1988. Scott joined Bloom Asset Management in 2000 and provides Investment Management services to individual, small business and high net-worth clients. Prior to joining Bloom Asset Management, Scott was Vice President and Branch Manager at Charles Schwab's Southfield, office where he was responsible for $1.5 billion in client assets.
Scott has received his designation as an Accredited Asset Management Specialist (AAMS) through the College for Financial Planning in Denver, Colorado. In the past, he held various licenses through FINRA while working on the broker-dealer side of the industry including Series 7, 8 & 63. Currently, he holds a Series 65 (Investment Advisor) license.
Scott lives in Troy, Michigan with his wife and three children, including one set of twins.


This paper describes the behaviour of the longitudinal and cross girder of cable-stayed bridge due to multi-support excitation. Cablestayed bridges should be analysed by different support accelerations since generally they have long spans. In this research, an 800 m long cablestayed bridge was assessed by giving different support accelerations. The method used is by arranging simulation using structural analysis software. The displacement time histories are obtained by converting the response spectra using MathCAD. The structural responses were then compared to the application of single support excitation. Results show that there is a significant discrepancy between the two analyses. Single support excitation causes lower responses if the ground motion magnitudes are similar to the small magnitude of the multi-support excitation, and it yields to a higher responses if the magnitudes are similar to the greater value of the multi-support excitation.


Rob and I are trying to take one vacation every year without the kids, this year we went to Washington D.C. for 6 days.
Day 1 Rob and I dropped the kids and the van and all their gear off at Rob's parents house on Tuesday and off we went to the airport. We flew direct into Baltimore, I spent the flight sorting pictures for Rob's mom and reading a great book. Rob napped! We landed, picked up our rental car (and after driving away wondered why we didn't upgrade, I hadn't been in a vehicle with manual locks and windows in a VERY long time!), found our hotel, and then got dinner from the fast food place next door. I had been to Washington DC when I was in high school but Rob had never been.
Day 2, we took the Metro for the first time and it wasn't nearly as scary as I thought it was going to be. The weather was beautiful and we walked and walked and walked all day! First to the Washington Monument, the White House (where it was fun to see their beehive), some cool old buildings on our way to the World War II memorial which was beautiful, then through the pretty park where we met a friendly squirrel, the Vietnam War Memorial, the Lincoln Memorial, the Korean War Memorial, the brand new Martin Luther King, Jr Memorial, then the long walk around the water where we saw the FDR Memorial which both Rob and I really liked, then finally the Jefferson Memorial and LUNCH! Then it was off to the Holocaust Museum which was so touching, then to the Asian and African art museums which were not very exciting. And finally back to the Metro and our hotel. My feet were SORE!
The pretty trees just before the World War II Memorial.
I really liked all the little carvings that lead down to the memorial.
The trees were still really pretty as you can see here at the Korean War Memorial.
And on the other side of the Korean War Memorial.
I really liked this quote at the Martin Luther King, Jr Memorial.
Day 3, started with a wonderful tour of the capitol building by my high school friend Jessah and her co-worker. Jessah currently is working for the Senator from Wisconsin so we got to meet her in her office and then take some fun under building transport to the capitol. It was great to get such a personal tour! After that we went to a fun burger place she recommended, then it was out into the misty, cool rainy day where I really started to wish I had my coat! We went into all the museums, mostly because they were warm and dry!! I really liked the Natural History Museum's display on gems and rocks. Rob was so excited to see the elephant but decided that it wasn't quite as cool in person. We learned we are not art people, I just cant get excited about really old paintings. It was fascinating to see the Declaration of Independence and Constitution. We didn't take too many pictures this day since we were inside the museums but it was a fun (but cold and wet) day!
The Botanical Gardens had these cool models of all the Memorials and Capitol made out of natural materials.
Day 4 We spent the morning in Alexandria which my mom says I loved in High School but I didn't feel quite the same way as a grown up! We did get to go into lots of little antique stores but didn't find anything fun to bring home. Then we drove to Mount Vernon and decided that we couldn't walk around another thing especially since it cost $15 a person to go in. The gift shop was really nice, though! We went back to the hotel and got ready to go to the temple, we planned it just right so we could see it in the daylight and then the dark when we came out. It was very impressive!
Day 5 We went to Arlington Cemetery, the leaves were still beautiful and it was very sobering to see the rows and rows of graves. Then since the weather was so nice again we got off the Metro to see the Capitol building in the sunshine and then walked up to the Farmer's Market, where we had a delicious pretzel and lemonade and bought a few fun art prints to bring home.
The view from the Lee House at the cemetery.
Day 6 We packed up and flew home to four little kids who were very happy to see us! It was a great trip!!
Olivia made Zander a fort to hang out in while she did school.
We could just eat her up!
Zachary and Olivia put the whole 100 piece puzzle together all by themselves.
On the pony at Thanksgiving Point.
The sweet calf and baby Sophia liked each other.
Baby butterfly who actually slept through Halloween, this was taken when we got costumes out to make sure they fit.
The kids with the carved pumpkins we grew in our garden.
Zander the monkey and Zachary the pirate, and yes they all wore the same costumes two years in a row!
Olivia as Alice in Wonderland. The weather was really nice for Utah, I was able to sit on the porch and read while the kids and Rob went trick or treating.
Baby Sophie isn't such a baby anymore.
On a super fun walk at Cascade Springs.
Looking for fish in the springs.
All ready for church (Zachary and Rob were at church because our ward was GIGANTIC and you had to go super early to get a seat).
Brotherly love watching a BYU game on the computer.
We moved Sophia and Zander into the same room, Zander kept climbing into the crib to see her.
Sophia, perhaps a future basketball player (ummm probably not since she has my height!).
Zander started liking the pool a bit more this year.
Well this isn't a big change, just the pile of laundry from vacation…. I think the sand is finally out of the washing machine!
We started Sophia on baby food! She had some Cheerios on vacation but this was her first official feeding, she quickly moved onto eating what we eat only cut up really small. We didn't buy a single jar of baby food for her.
and for Zachary who is in his second year of preschool. He was so excited to go back to school!
We were lucky enough to take a long road trip to Washington in August to see my mom and do some fun things along the way. Here are some of the fun pictures from the trip!
Zander was not so happy for a lot of the drive to Ontario, Oregon.
We stopped at all the temples we came near, here we are in Twin Falls, ID.
The beautiful Shoshone Falls. It was amazing how much water was still in the river in late August.
At the Boise temple, which was under renovation.
At the amazing Oregon Trail museum on Day 2 of vacation, if you are ever near Baker Oregon for sure go visit it! This window overlooks the actual trail that you can still see in the hillside.
Family picture (notice I was wearing glasses, my eye doctor was trying to get a better prescription for my contacts).
The beautiful Columbia River Temple.
Olivia with the Seattle skyline behind her on the ferry ride.
Group shot taken by Rob's mom, Rob's parents were able to come with us which was super to have two additional adult helpers.
Zander found it super amusing to run on the lines on the floor of the ferry, he had the best time!
Finally at Birch Bay, Washington.
The boys LOVED throwing rocks into the ocean.
Zander quickly learned that only the "blue" blueberries were yummy and then he wouldn't stop picking them.
And ended with a super wet Sophie who was sitting behind all of us who were in the "wet zone", luckily she didn't seem to mind too much.
At the Vancouver, British Columbia Temple.
My mom and I surprised Olivia with a trip to the brand new American Girl Doll Store in Lynnwood, she was so happy!
After selecting her doll we all went to lunch at the super cute cafe, Olivia was a LITTLE bit excited to get dessert.
All of my mom's grand kids, Zachary, Emma, Zander, Olivia, Sophia, and Brianna.
Zachary loved flying the kite.
The kids were super excited to get blue Fruit Loops ice cream! Saying goodbye to Grandma and Grandpa.
For a pretty much unplanned stop, the beach was one of the best parts of vacation.
Zachary ended up getting swept under by a wave but he cheered up finding sand dollars with Rob.
Sophia and I kept our toes out of the REALLY cold water, Zander stayed pretty close to me too, he didn't like the waves getting him.
At the Portland Oregon Temple. It was beautiful!!
At Multnomah Falls, it was quite impressive!
We ran into the parents of one of Rob's friends while we were at the falls, what a small world!
It was a great trip! I loved seeing my mom, reading lots of books, being at the ocean, and just spending time with my family.


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Our smartphone app is designed for construction companies who employ a mobile workforce tending to several construction projects each day. Because completely unreadable and lost timesheets are still a very common occurrence in construction.
However, this will no longer be the case with Begin's GPS positioning, project-based costing and real-time information updates. We help you save a huge amount of time, spent otherwise on getting hourly data for invoicing and payroll.
Let your builders register their work time from a device in their pocket. We have robust applications both for Android and iOS. In case of Internet connection issues, our application will store the data until the connection is back and sync the data with the server then.
Begin smartphone work time application performs a GPS position check each time an employee registers their work time. This provides you with a unque ability to check where the employee starts their work and whether they are on time. This will help your company become more efficient at managing employee working time and improve overall logistics.
Begin tracks more than just working time. Employees can easily map their work against objects and operations. This enriched work time information is accumulated in manager's dashboard where they have a real-time overview of what is being accomplished. This provides an opportunity to keep a close eye on important projects and make changes based on valid information.


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text:
Paris: Bateaux lavoir - Pont Marie
Wonderful "gravure bois" ed. nr. 2/50 by a completely obscured Paris printmaker. Some years ago a 1909 colour woodblock was acquired by visiting German painter & printmaker Marie Wippermann created from the exact same location. These iconic Paris laundry facilities have been the subject of many visiting or studying in Paris artists.
Marcel de Jaegher (1879- 1964)
Kappstein, Carl Friedrich (Berlin 06-03-1869 - 1933 Berlin)
Painter, lithographer, author and teacher. Probably son of Jewish Th. (Theodor) Kappstein.
In 1868 the Berlin address book does not hold any Kappstein family members. The 1869 volume is not available and in 1870 Th. Kappstein "Stubenmaler" is mentioned living at Philipp-strasse 21 IVn.
A "Stubenmaler" is an artist (artisan) who decorates-paints walls, ceilings and crypts in the gothic style and tradition (fresco painter)
His probably brother Theodor Kappstein (Berlin 28-11-1870 - 17-05-1960 Rudolstadt) was a theologist, publicists and critic and is known as author of 9 theological and literary books and articles (1898-1913). He was married to author and story teller ("Erzählerin") Anna Benisch (Potsdam 1870 -1950 Rudolstadt).
Studied 1886 at Berlin Academy under Woldemar Friedrich (1846-1910) and (best known as an important animal painter) Paul Friedrich Meyerheim (1842-1915)
Visited Italy and Sicily in 1893-94 and was appointed 1905 as teacher in Charlottenburg "Akademische Hochschule". He is the author of a handbook on lithography in 1910: "Der Künstlerische Steindruck" published by Bruno Cassierer.
Although mentioned a teacher in Dresslers KHB, only one student mentioned his name as being his art teacher.
Mainly painted animals, but also landscapes and still lifes. In 1904 he was awarded a small gold medal at the Great Berlin Art Exhibition.
Took part in all important "Exhibition of contemporary German Graphic Art" held in the Art Institute of Chicago in 1913 with all known German graphic artist of the time: Max Liebermann, MaxKlinger, Walter Klemm (incl. the famous Pelican print), Kathe Kollwitz, Erna Frank etc….
Represented in the catalog:
Kappstein, Carl
122. The Toy Dogs
123. Winter
124. The Swan-pool
Dresslers KHB 1930: Berlin Grunewald, Hubertusbadertstrasse 23. Member VBK.
Julius Edmund Robert Nitsche
(Breslau 16-02-1882 - 1965 Munich)
Painter, illustrator, arts & crafts artist, interior- book cover and typographic designer, architect (interior design), graphic artist and printmaker. Worked for the illustrious "Jugend" Magazine. Married to Eva N.N.
Known to have worked in Breslau, Munich and Leipzig. Created several type-face ("Zierbuchstaben") like "Unger Fraktur Initalen" for J. Klinkhardt 1910. Created a colour woodblock book plate (ex libris) for painter and paint manufacturer Fritz Behrendt* (1863-1946).
Known from a poster ("Plakat" 68 x 85 cm) for a 1911 Munich "Grosse Algemeine Hundeausstellung" with a barsoi (Russian greyhound). Also known from a bookplate for "Eva und Julius Nitsche", also with a barsoi.
Works represented in Offenbach Klingspor Museum (spec. in book design and typography).
Dresslers KHB 1930: Munich, Türkenstrasse 97. Member BDG. (board member), RvbK.,DWB., DGfchrK.,KB., "die Unabhängigen".
Possibly related to: Nitsche, Hinrich (Breslau 14-02-1845 - 08-11-1902 Tharandt), zoologist in Breslau and son-in-law to geographer Oscar Ferdinand Peschel (Dresden 1826 - 1875 Leipzig).
* Behrendt, Friedrich (Fritz) (Memel 31-10-1863 - 13-02-1946 Fuerstenfeldbruck)
Painter and paint manufacturer. (Also Behrendt). Studied in Königsberg academy and in Karlsruhe academy under landscape painter and illustrator Hermann Baisch (1846-1894). Member of the Munich Secession 1903.
Friend of fauvist painter Oskar Moll* and said to have together developed "lichtbeständige" Behrendt-Farbe: a brand of light stable colour pigments (artist oil/based paint) known as "Berendt'schen Farben". For the manufacturing of their products he owned a "Bitumen-Fabrik" in Grafrath near Fuertstenfeldbruck referring to the oil based paints he created.
Married to textile artist Olga Schierlitz (Hamburg 1867-1958) the daughter of a Hamburg merchant.
They had two daughters Hedda and Irmgard Mastaglio-Behrendt (Munich 23-01-1905 - 1990) studied in Munich under Angelo Jank (1868-1940), Karl Caspar (Friedrichshafen 1879 - 1956) and in the Munich painting school of Moritz Heymann (1870-1937). Fleeing from Silesia to Schleswig-Holstein at the ending of WW-II she lost all her work.
* Moll, Oskar (Brzeg/Brieg, Prussia, now Poland 21-07-1875 - 19-08-1947 Berlin)
Fauvist painter who studied under Corinth, Leistikow. In Paris became acquainted in the Café de Dome circles meeting Matisse and Picasso. He started, with his wife Margarethe and their friend painter Hans Purrmann (1880-1966) the short lived "Académie Matisse". Purrmann travelled to Paris in 1906 becoming a student and personal friend of Henri Matisse ((1869-1954). Appointed as professor in Breslau Academy succeeding August Endell (1871-1925). His work was declared "entarted", displayed and confiscated by the Nazis after which they led a secluded life in Berlin. Their art collection consisting of numerous paintings, also by Matisse, Léger, Bracque and Picasso was destroyed in a 1943 allied bombing raid on Berlin. Their home destroyed they tried to find refuge in his home town but were forced to return to Berlin by the advancing Red-Army.
He was married to painter author and sculptor Marg Moll, born as Margarethe Haeffner (Mühlhausen 1884 - 1979 Munich).

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


One of the places I decided to stop by on my trip to Madison is Woodman's. Woodman's is this huge grocery store chain around the Madison area that is literally the size of a Super Walmart, but just for groceries and alcohol.
Their liquor department is literally the size of a Walgreen's, but I'll get into that later.
When you walk into the store, you can just feel the massiveness.
There seems like an endless amount of aisles.
The aisles themselves seem endless in length.
There was a cool Badger display with pop boxes.
The liquor department is like its own store.
Just like the main store, it feels like there is a massive amount of alcohol (there kind of is).
Don't forget the cheap beer that is sold in large quantities.
A case of beer for $7.99!
If you're looking for stuff sold only in Wisconsin, this is your place.
If beer isn't your thing, there's long aisles of wine and liquor.
When you get everything you need, there's even a self-checkout.
Woodman's is definitely a cool place to go because it seems like they have everything. I know when I lived in Madison, I'd hit up the liquor department for their craft brews. I definitely got to sample a large variety. I never grocery shopped there, but if I'm in the Madison area for an extended amount of time, I might have to.


Hostel ROOM Rotterdam is Europe's first theme hostel right in the center of Rotterdam next to the park, the river Maas and the Erasmusbrug.
The recently renovated Art Deco style building dates from 1923 and almost all rooms are styled into a pure Rotterdam theme. Among the rooms you'll find the Port Room, the Sports Room, the Club Room and the Festival Room but there are also rooms that represent a pure Dutch theme and rooms that refer to the history of the building.
- A fantastic lounge with couches, television, free games, magazines, etc.


text:
Q: How to Debug the code located remotely I am working on a web Application .
I am using Eclipse and Jetty 7 as Web Server for this Application .
I make changes to the code and deploy it to a Linux Machine which is remotely located .
After deployment i access  the Application through browser using http://10.56.345:8080/MViewer
My question is , Is it possible to debug in this case ??
Please Share your views .
Thanks in advance .

A: You can use Remote debugger in eclispe. You can set that using proper connection parameters in Eclipse Remote debug configuration

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
package aima.core.search.local

import aima.core.search.Problem
import aima.core.search.local.SimulatedAnnealingSearch.{
  BasicSchedule,
  OverTimeStepLimit,
  Temperature,
  TemperatureResult
}
import aima.core.search.local.time.TimeStep
import org.scalacheck.{Arbitrary, Gen}
import org.specs2.ScalaCheck
import org.specs2.mutable.Specification

import scala.util.{Success, Try}

/**
  * @author Shawn Garner
  */
class SimulatedAnnealingSearchSpec extends Specification with ScalaCheck {

  "BasicSchedule" >> {
    import aima.core.search.local.SimulatedAnnealingSearch.BasicSchedule.schedule
    import aima.core.search.local.time.TimeStep.Implicits._

    def increment(ts: TimeStep, times: Int): Try[TimeStep] = times match {
      case 0 => Success(ts)
      case _ => ts.step.flatMap(increment(_, times - 1))
    }

    "lower limit check" in {
      schedule()(TimeStep.start) match {
        case Temperature(t) => t must beCloseTo(19.1d within 3.significantFigures)
        case other          => ko(other.toString)
      }
    }

    "upper limit check" in {
      increment(TimeStep.start, 98).map(schedule()(_)) match {
        case Success(Temperature(t)) => t must beCloseTo(0.232d within 3.significantFigures)
        case other                   => ko(other.toString)
      }

    }

    "over limit check" in {
      increment(TimeStep.start, 99).map(schedule()(_)) must beSuccessfulTry[TemperatureResult](OverTimeStepLimit)
    }

    implicit val arbTimeStep: Arbitrary[TimeStep] = Arbitrary {
      for {
        numSteps <- Gen.choose[Int](0, 98)
      } yield increment(TimeStep.start, numSteps).get
    }

    "must not create negative temperature" >> prop { ts: TimeStep =>
      schedule()(ts) match {
        case Temperature(t) => t must be_>(0.00d)
        case other          => ko(other.toString)
      }
    }

  }

  "8 queens problem problem" >> {
    import SimulatedAnnealingSearchSpec._
    implicit val arbTimeStep: Arbitrary[EightQueensState] = Arbitrary {
      val all = (0 to 7).toList
      for {
        q0row <- Gen.oneOf(all)
        l1    = all.filterNot(_ == q0row)
        q1row <- Gen.oneOf(l1)
        l2    = l1.filterNot(_ == q1row)
        q2row <- Gen.oneOf(l2)
        l3    = l2.filterNot(_ == q2row)
        q3row <- Gen.oneOf(l3)
        l4    = l3.filterNot(_ == q3row)
        q4row <- Gen.oneOf(l4)
        l5    = l4.filterNot(_ == q4row)
        q5row <- Gen.oneOf(l5)
        l6    = l5.filterNot(_ == q5row)
        q6row <- Gen.oneOf(l6)
        l7    = l6.filterNot(_ == q6row)
        q7row <- Gen.oneOf(l7)
      } yield EightQueensState(
        List(
          QueenPosition(q0row),
          QueenPosition(q1row),
          QueenPosition(q2row),
          QueenPosition(q3row),
          QueenPosition(q4row),
          QueenPosition(q5row),
          QueenPosition(q6row),
          QueenPosition(q7row)
        )
      )
    }

    "find solution" >> prop { s: EightQueensState =>
      val eightQueensProblem = new Problem[EightQueensState, EightQueensAction] {
        override def initialState = s

        override def isGoalState(state: EightQueensState): Boolean = false // Not used

        override def actions(state: EightQueensState): List[EightQueensAction] = state match {
          case EightQueensState(cols) =>
            cols.zipWithIndex.flatMap {
              case (QueenPosition(rowIndex), colIndex) =>
                (0 to 7).toList.filterNot(r => rowIndex == r).map(newRowIndex => MoveTo(colIndex, newRowIndex))
            }
        }

        override def result(state: EightQueensState, action: EightQueensAction): EightQueensState =
          (state, action) match {
            case (EightQueensState(cols), MoveTo(colIndex, newRowIndex)) =>
              EightQueensState(cols.updated(colIndex, QueenPosition(newRowIndex)))

          }

        override def stepCost(state: EightQueensState, action: EightQueensAction, childPrime: EightQueensState): Int =
          -1 // Not used
      }

      val result =
        SimulatedAnnealingSearch.apply(
          queenStateToValue,
          eightQueensProblem,
          BasicSchedule.schedule(BasicSchedule.defaultScheduleParams.copy(limit = 10000))
        )

      result must beSuccessfulTry.like {
        case s @ EightQueensState(_) => queenStateToValue(s) must be beCloseTo (8.00d within 2.significantFigures)
      }

      result.foreach {
        case s @ EightQueensState(cols) =>
          val numQueensRightScore = queenStateToValue(s)
          println(s"*** Score: $numQueensRightScore")
          println(List.fill(8)("-").mkString(" ", " ", " "))

          for {
            currentRow <- 0 to 7
            row = cols.zipWithIndex.map {
              case (QueenPosition(r), _) if r == currentRow => "Q"
              case _                                        => " "
            }
          } {
            println(row.mkString("|", "|", "|"))
            println(List.fill(8)("-").mkString(" ", " ", " "))
          }
      }

      ok
    }.set(minTestsOk = 1)
  }

}

object SimulatedAnnealingSearchSpec {
  sealed trait EightQueensAction
  final case class MoveTo(columnIndex: Int, newRowIndex: Int) extends EightQueensAction

  final case class QueenPosition(row: Int) extends AnyVal
  final case class EightQueensState(columns: List[QueenPosition])

  def canAttackHorizontal(columnIndex: Int, s: EightQueensState): Boolean = {
    val currentRow      = s.columns(columnIndex).row
    val rows: List[Int] = s.columns.zipWithIndex.filterNot(_._2 == columnIndex).map(_._1.row)
    rows.contains(currentRow)
  }

  def canAttackDiagonal(columnIndex: Int, s: EightQueensState): Boolean = {
    val currentRow = s.columns(columnIndex).row
    val rows: List[Boolean] = s.columns.zipWithIndex.filterNot(_._2 == columnIndex).map {
      case (QueenPosition(rowIdx), colIdx) =>
        val run  = math.abs(colIdx - columnIndex)
        val rise = math.abs(rowIdx - currentRow)
        rise == run
    }

    rows.contains(true)
  }

  val queenStateToValue: EightQueensState => Double = {
    case state @ EightQueensState(cols) =>
      cols.zipWithIndex.foldLeft(0.0d) {
        case (acc, elem) =>
          val currentColumnIndex = elem._2
          if (canAttackHorizontal(currentColumnIndex, state) || canAttackDiagonal(currentColumnIndex, state)) {
            acc
          } else {
            acc + 1.0d
          }

      }
  }

}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked. The inverse proposition also appears to be true: a complex system designed from scratch never works and cannot be made to work You have to start over, beginning with a simple system.
Complex systems are full of variables and interdependencies that must be arranged just right in order to function. Complex systems designed from scratch will never work in the real world, since they haven't been subject to environmental selection forces while being designed. Uncertainty ensures that you will never be able to anticipate all of these interdependencies and variables in advance, so a complex system built from scratch will continually fail in all sorts of unexpected ways.
I believe that Darwin would have had something to say about it. Clearly small failed attempts at advancement do not bring down a system because there are small successes too. This is something that governments have been told for years but their favoured consultancies ignore. It's not where the big bucks are, I guess.


text:
Alireza Avaei
Position in 1988 massacre: Prosecutor; member of the Dezful "Death Commission"
Present post and occupation: Minister of Justice (from September 2017); Head of the Presidency's Inspectorate Office (until September 2017)
A.K.A. Alireza Avaie, Alireza Avaee, Seyyed Ali-Reza Avaee, Seyyed Alireza Avaei, Alireza Avayi
After receiving Khomeini's fatwa, he reportedly was the main person in charge of executions in the UNESCO Prison in Dezful (A school facility built during the Shah's regime by UNESCO to help children. It was transformed into a prison operating under the same name by the current regime).
He has been described by witnesses as one of the cruellest murderers of the prisoners during the 1988 mass executions. According to eye-witness accounts, teenage prisoners were executed in the area behind the prison yard.
The European Union put sanctions on Alireza Avaee and another two ministers in the form of a visa ban and asset freeze in October 2011 due to human rights abuses (Council Decision 2011/235/CFSP of 12 April 2011 concerning restrictive measures directed against certain persons and entities in view of the situation in Iran). Link: http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg_impl/2011/1002/oj
The EU ban order described him as "Director of the special investigations office. Until July 2016 deputy Minister of Interior and head of the Public register. Advisor to the Disciplinary Court for Judges since April 2014. Former President of the Tehran Judiciary. As President of the Tehran Judiciary he has been responsible for human rights violations, arbitrary arrests, denials of prisoners' rights and an increase in executions."
The Treasury of the United Kingdom also put him among asset freeze targets in October 2011 for the same reason.
Avaei's name is also included on Switzerland's sanctions list for human rights violations.
Tagged: 1988 Massacre, Alireza Avaie, Iran, Justice Minister, Minister of Justice, Seyyed Alireza Avaie
Call for a UN Commission of Inquiry Into Iran's 1988 MassacreBy Clerk on January 11, 2021
Europe's Inaction Is Fueling Impunity In IranBy Clerk on January 1, 2021
Iran Breaks Tombstones To Dominate Cemeteries – Radio FardaBy Clerk on December 31, 2020
UK Human Rights Minister Urges Iran to Allow Investigation of 1988 MassacreBy Clerk on December 28, 2020
December 2020: UN experts echo call for international investigation into Iran's 1988 massacreBy Clerk on December 9, 2020
21 NGOs appeal to UN to investigate Iran's 1988 massacreBy Clerk on September 22, 2020
Iran builds road over mass grave of victims of the 1988 massacreBy Clerk on September 15, 2020
Iranian authorities forcibly disperse grieving relatives of 1988 massacre victims from cemeteryBy Clerk on September 9, 2020
US: Enforced disappearances related to 1988 massacre continue unabated in IranBy Clerk on September 9, 2020
Tahar Boumedra tells global summit it's time for UN to probe the 1988 massacreBy Clerk on September 9, 2020


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Catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide is proud to announce that it has been named "Best Latin America Risk Modeller" at the 2015 Reactions Latin America Awards held on May 27th at an awards ceremony in Miami. The Reactions Awards highlight leading players and innovation from within the Latin American re/insurance market.
"It is an honor to be recognized as the best risk modeling firm in Latin America by leaders of the Latin American insurance and reinsurance industries," said Bill Churney, Chief Operating Officer at AIR Worldwide. "We have committed significant resources to deliver the most scientifically credible and advanced models for this region. This award signals that our hard work and dedication to model and software development, as well as dedicated customer service and support are truly helping companies doing business in Latin America to better own their risk."
In July of this year, AIR will be releasing an updated South America earthquake model which will be enhanced with the ability to assess tsunami risk and that adds Ecuador to the model domain, as well as new flood hazard maps for Brazil. Those, combined with AIR's recent Caribbean hurricane model update into Touchstone,demonstrate that AIR is continuing to make the investment and effort needed to be the leading modeler in Latin America.