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Economics lessons from wild nature
Posted By Administration, Wednesday, July 25, 2018
Updated: Monday, February 25, 2019
Polina Silakova's sixth post in our Emerging Fellows program explores some economics lessons to be learned from nature. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the APF or its other members.
If we try to apply Darwin's theory of evolution to economic systems, would we conclude that capitalism "better suits to the environment" (better suits us) than communism? After all, most of the ex-communist countries shifted to capitalism and the majority of the few remaining are now transitioning to free market economies. Have we naturally selected the better way? Apparently, only a half of us would agree. According to a recent online survey of twenty thousand people in 28 countries run by the research company Ipsos, half of respondents around the globe think that now, in the XXI century, "socialist ideals are of great value for societal progress".
What exactly are these ideals? Here are some stats:
•9 in 10 believe that education should be free and that free healthcare is a human right
•7 in 10 think that everyone should have the right to an unconditional basic income (UBI).
•Interestingly, about the same number (7 in 10) also agree that it is right for people who are talented to earn more than those who are less gifted, and that free-market competition brings out the best in people.
It seems that although the benefits of free markets in fostering progress are valued when it comes to the essential aspects of life – health, welfare, education – many of us are craving for a more egalitarian system; the one alleviating the polarizing inequality that capitalism has created.
With so many innovations fostering humanity's progress being inspired by nature, we are curious: what examples of democratic distribution of resources exist in the wild world? One study particularly attracted our attention. A Belgian-French group of scientists studied self-organised collective decision-making by animals when it comes to choosing between alternative resources.
They ran an experiment where 50 cockroaches (Blattella germanica) were presented with three shelters, each with a capacity to hold 40 individuals. For cockroaches, who prefer dark to light, such a shelter is a resource, and they quickly filled them in. But instead of doing this in a chaotic manner, the cockroaches split into two equal groups of 25 occupying two shelters and leaving the third one empty. While in a scenario with larger shelters – each big enough for the whole group – only one of the shelters got occupied. The researchers were astonished by how cockroaches maximise the benefit of limited resources, trading off being together and access to shelter resources and finding a balance between collaboration and competition. "Without elaborate communication, global information, and explicit comparison of available opportunities, […] the collective decision emerges from the interactions between equal individuals, initially possessing little information about their environment. It is remarkable, then, that these rules should produce a collective pattern that maximizes individual fitness."
Economic democracy observed in behaviour of cockroaches presents some of the features where capitalism and representative democracy did not quite succeed: egalitarian distribution of resource and decision-making benefiting all (or at least the majority of) individuals. It might seem too simplistic to directly compare the economic problems faced by Blattella germanica and those of Homo sapiens. But if we think of some emerging movements – collaborative mobile democracy, participatory budgeting, commons-based economic governance – are they not technologically empowered forms of truly collective decision-making, replicating those observed in nature? With new technologies making us more interconnected, we now have a unique opportunity to access the knowledge and opinions of all interested citizens and reshape the way we, as a society, take decisions and distribute value.
Following nature's principle of evolution, only a better system, distributive by design and maximising the fitness of more individuals, will be able to replace capitalism by making it obsolete. Mother nature offers us many lessons, and the lesson of balancing collaboration and competition has been one of the hardest to comprehend. It requires both individual engagement and strong leadership ability to connect knowledge and talents from the community and to facilitate the best ideas evolving in something new.
As American sociologist Erik Olin Wright suggests, we cannot smash or escape capitalism, but we can tame or erode it. By slowly introducing new elements, inspired by nature and enabled by technology, we might start shifting the focus from maximising financial value and growth to real value creation and more equality. And then who knows… maybe one day this will make capitalism in its classical form obsolete.
© Polina Silakova 2018
Tags: capitalism economics governance
What sparks could ignite the next great-power conflagration?
Posted By Administration, Sunday, July 15, 2018
Craig Perry has written his seventh installment in our Emerging Fellows program. His entire series explores the potential for another Great-power War. This piece asks about what might ignite the next great-power conflagration. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the APF or its other members.
America's great-power rivals are increasingly pursuing strategic ends through nonmilitary means, betting that competition short of conflict will advance their interests without risking nuclear annihilation. Yet they are also gearing up to project military force abroad, and defend themselves should the United States intervene to defend its interests and allies. This raises the very real possibility that Russian or Chinese adventurism—and miscalculations over American willingness or ability to respond militarily—could inadvertently trigger the next great-power war. Unfortunately, growing doubts about longstanding U.S. commitments to its allies and international norms are making this tragic outcome far more likely.
Russia has reemerged in the past decade as a formidable military power, capable of defeating neighboring states such as Georgia and Ukraine while seizing the initiative farther afield in Syria. Its theater ballistic missiles and sophisticated air and coastal defense systems dominate the Black Sea and Baltic regions, posing a worrying threat to America's NATO allies. Similarly, the People's Republic of China has vastly improved its offensive capabilities in recent years, projecting naval power far beyond its littoral areas while holding its renegade offshore province, Taiwan, at ever-greater risk.
These developments have substantially increased the likelihood of American forces coming into conflict with their great-power counterparts. For example, not long after Russian mercenaries launched an ill-fated attack on a U.S. outpost in Syria earlier this year, the United States and Russia nearly come to blows over the Syrian regime's use of chemical weapons. Just a month later, China deployed a nuclear-capable bomber to the disputed Paracel Islands, then dispatched warships to challenge the U.S. Navy's freedom of navigation in the region. As such brinkmanship becomes more common, the likelihood of a serious—and potentially escalatory—military confrontation will only grow.
This problem is particularly acute wherever the United States maintains alliances within its rivals' historical spheres of influence. In Europe, Moscow could quickly defeat the meager NATO forces forward-deployed to the Baltic States—former Soviet republics sandwiched between mainland Russia and its Kaliningrad exclave—while making it exceedingly difficult for the United States and its allies to retake this territory without triggering nuclear war. Meanwhile in Asia, Beijing has set a mid-century deadline for national reunification, with the People's Liberation Army reportedly planning to accomplish this goal as early as 2020. The PLA is already poised to overwhelm Taiwanese defenses with little warning, and disrupt U.S. carrier and airbase operations as far away as Okinawa and Guam through a combination of kinetic, cyber, and electronic warfare. In both cases, America's near-peer adversaries are positioned to seize the initiative in their own backyards while severely complicating Washington's ability to come to the aid of its allies.
All of this presupposes, of course, that the United States remains fully committed to its far-flung network of alliances, which have been a cornerstone of its foreign policy success since World War II. The 2016 election of a U.S. commander-in-chief who repeatedly questions the value of NATO and other foreign entanglements, however, has fundamentally challenged assumptions of American resolve. President Trump's pronouncements naturally undermine confidence in U.S. security guarantees, and this growing uncertainty may eventually embolden Russia or China to call America's bluff. The ramifications of such a gamble would be catastrophic: if the U.S. military responds as promised, it would plunge the world into the next great-power war; if it does not, the international system that has underpinned global peace and prosperity for the better part of a century would come to an ignominious end. Either way, the future is shaping up to be a much different place than the "Pax Americana" of yesteryear.
© Craig Perry 2018
Tags: NATO politics war
Ugh, Scenarios? That's Not Very Innovative…
Posted By Administration, Tuesday, July 3, 2018
Adam Cowart is one of our Emerging Fellows, and this is his eighth article written for the program. In it, he explores scenarios. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the APF or its members.
Previously we have challenged what is truly innovation (depending on how you parse the definition, maybe nothing!), and the challenges of systems wide innovation. We can now introduce 4 possible scenarios (among many, many others) to begin to conceptualize what the future of innovation looks like:
1. Baseline. The baseline scenario has organizations, governments, and economies continuing to muddle through. Some continue to sub optimize and exist, others innovate to various degrees, others are shape shifters, able to leap from one new industry to another, evolving as they go along. Over time, we become more fluent in the efficiency and quality of innovation activities, using such measurements as research quotients (RQ), developed by Anne Marie Knott, that measure innovation inputs and outputs to gauge success. Innovation as disruption is still seen as the gold standard, though large, mature firms still struggle with whether to embrace or suppress these disruptions. Innovation is still largely situated.
2. Systems-Bound Mutual Self-Interest: A greater understanding of systems, and systems literacy, coupled with virtual and software based platforms and physical innovative cross-disciplinary spaces point to less sub optimization and unproductive situated innovation. Instead, organizations will bond together in mutual self-interest (perhaps making some a bit uneasy as self-organization looks a lot like vertical integration and monopolization). Definitions of competition and anti-trust will be rewritten and new measurements of social good will come to eclipse GDP as the primary measurement of innovation and economic health.
3. Double-Down on Sub-Optimization and Quick Profit. The insatiable thirst for quarterly profits points to a future of sub optimization that shows no signs of disappearing. In an effort to stimulate the real economy, governments implement varying policies of charging demurrage on the financial market, charging fees or taxing capital that isn't being used in "productive" ways. This will increase available capital for reinvestment. However, instead of increasing innovation and productivity, it could simply "feed the beast" of sub optimization. Especially when coupled with the relentless focus on quarterly returns, on "maximizing value". In a world where capital must be reinvested in the firm, the resultant behavior could involve a great deal of tire spinning, or more precisely, short-term cycles of excessive value extraction meant to replicate share buy-back schemes and large dividend payouts. This, coupled with rapid rise and fall "fad" industries, make for rapid boom-bust cycles globally. Think of it as shifting the burden on overdrive.
4. The Rapid S-Curve Economy. Organizations become increasingly amorphous, shape shifters that are constantly seeking out new emergent industries, colonizing them rapidly, then moving on once the industry matures. And the maturity of the industries is also rapid. Organizations become almost nomadic. With either large or scarce reserves of capital for innovation and expansion, organizations move to rapidly create and capitalize on opportunities; one or two players prove successful and monopolize the space; the rest move on to find greener pastures.
What to do? The answer may be in the form of government policy. Governments are still the primary investor in risky innovative endeavours. When will investment programs and structures be put in place to invest in systems wide innovation? Even if it is still sub optimized within the nation-state?
Perhaps this is all just an elaborate way of saying that innovation is messy, often fails, and even when successful we can't be sure of what positive and negative externalities it will cause. Ultimately, sub optimization is inherently a product of innovation. By correcting one problem we create others. Not all problems are created equal, of course, and we would prefer to have certain problems over others – for example, all the side-effects associated with medications we choose are an unfortunate but necessary trade off. We are both selfish in the sense that we view progress from our own situated perspective, and we are utilitarian in the sense that we generally hope that any negative outcomes of innovation will be less than the derived benefit.
We are left with a future where the nature and impact, not to mention the consistency and payback, of innovation, creating results by doing new things, is unclear. Will we move towards increased sub optimization or will we create and adopt the social technologies we need to generate deep structural results?
© Adam Cowart 2018
Tags: economics innovation system
Superposition and Frosting a Cake
Posted By Administration, Monday, July 2, 2018
Adam Cowart is one of our Emerging Fellows, and this is his seventh article written for the program. In it, he compares superposition to innovation. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the APF or its members.
We previously challenged what is truly innovative versus sub optimization in some shape or form. We can now delve deeper into assumptions about innovation today. If we start with standpoint theory and situated knowledge, we can drill down a little deeper to reach the concept of situated imagination. Situated imagination contends that knowledge is dependent upon our location: physically, economically, and socially, among other situating coordinates. Thus, imagination is an amalgamation, an alchemy of self and collective conditions, which influences not only meaning but the concept of the "not-yet real", in the words of Jean Paul Sartre.
In order to "do different things" we must be able to "think differently". Therefore, moving beyond sub optimization first requires an acknowledgement of what we could call "Situated Innovation". Situational innovation, the phenomenon of innovation being inherently connected to a particular observer or group of observers, is perhaps the most significant hidden cost in the global economy. Exercises in empathy can help to re-situate the observer, but typically this is done in a manner that is inherently sub optimizing.
While our discussion has largely revolved around the issue of space (across silos, organizations, and countries), time is another dimension in which we sub optimize. The most obvious example of this is shifting the burden of climate change onto future generations. But the issue also manifests in, for example, inter-generational organizational issues. Consider the sub optimization of the past. While not as obvious as the impact on the future, consider the many cost-benefits and projects built around past projections of the future, now the present. By sub optimizing within the present, we underutilize the past, which can have ripple effects into the future. Decisions are forgotten, goals are lost and abandoned. For every idea that survives, countless others falter at some point. A Darwinian perspective on ideas and past innovations is nothing more than permission to hold a bias towards old ideas.
Finally, beyond the space and time, is matter. Agential realism, and spacetimemattering, a theory developed by Karen Barad, provides another perspective on matter and meaning in innovation activities. Agential realism, at its core, is about the inherent entanglement of all things. Any act of observation creates the "agential cut" in which we include some things, and exclude a number of other possibilities. This temporary "cut" allows us to view a chunk of a thing, matter, in isolation, in order to gain a greater understanding of the thing we wish to observe. Hence, our observations of the world are inherently performative. Here, too, we see the challenge of innovation and the limits to our innovative capacities. Observationally, we must isolate an object as either a thing or process. By doing this, we ignore its connected (here, entangled) state of being.
Think of it like this: You are making a cake. Typically, you would wait until it cooled and then frost the whole cake. However, once this particular cake has cooled, you can no longer observe the cake as a whole. You see a piece of the cake and cut out that piece, cover it in frosting, and return the piece to the cake. Then you go about trying to find other pieces of the cake. Unable to see the whole cake at once, you are left with cutting, frosting, returning. In all likelihood, you will only frost a small portion of the cake. Even if you somehow manage to cut off and frost every piece of the cake, it will look more than a little strange! Later that evening, most guests at the party, blessed with the ability to observe the whole cake at once, will agree this is a far from optimum cake. Rather, the cake looks like it was made by Frankenstein.
Tags: economics innovation realism
Redesigning Society for Prosperity
Posted By Administration, Sunday, July 1, 2018
Daniel Riveong has written his fourth installment in our Emerging Fellows program. Here, he explores the evolving concept of prosperity. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the APF or its other members.
We are at a critical juncture in our understanding of prosperity. We no longer have an unshaken belief that prosperity is based on economic development or industrialization. The United Nations' Strategic Development Goals (SGD) have helped reassess the belief that prosperity is mainly an economic goal. These goals have expanded our definition of prosperity towards a holistic improvement of well-being, such as in health, education, nutrition, et cetera.
As we begin to free ourselves from a GDP-focused view of prosperity, we are gaining greater freedom to design society for a more holistic approach to prosperity. To explore these new possibilities, we should revisit indigenous views towards social values, commerce, community, and governance. Indeed, we can draw from a few readily available examples.
In the Andean region of South America, Ecuador and Bolivia have reimagined their social contracts by integrating the concept of Buen Vivir into their constitutions. Buen Vivir ("good living") is the Spanish phrase for a worldview shared among Andean peoples. While it has no single definition, Buen Vivir emphasizes collective well-being that is in harmony with nature and also culturally sensitive. This concept was integrated into the Ecuadorian constitution in 2008 and later in Bolivia in 2009.
Both countries have interpreted Buen Vivir in different ways. The Ecuadorian constitution guarantees a healthy and an economically balanced way of living. This includes granting nature legal rights that can be enforced through the court system. In contrast, the Bolivian constitution views Buen Vivir through the lens of social justice and political-economic redistribution. The harmony of Buen Vivir is achieved through limiting land ownership size and elevating the political power of village and indigenous communities.
Indigenous concepts not only offer more holistic visions for social contracts but also alternative ways of thinking about work and capitalism. The Igbo people of Nigeria have created a system of apprenticeship that focuses on entrepreneurship and self-sufficiency. It's more than an education system; it's a unique venture capital system. In the Igbo tradition, children, usually after primary school, are sent to work for an owner of a trade or shop for 5 to 10 years. At the end of the apprenticeship, owners are obliged to help the apprentices set-up their own businesses (called a "settlement"). This apprenticeship model offers a different way to think about business, economics, and education. The Igbo tradition ensures inter-generational equity through enabling entrepreneurship and self-sufficiency.
While we can find many sources of inspiration from the Global South, we need to understand how they can work, be re-interpreted, and scaled in different societies and contexts. The different Ecuadorian and Bolivian approaches to Buen Vivir is one example of the challenges of interpretation. In the case of the Igbo apprenticeship, we need to imagine what a regulated, digitalized, and scaled-up version of this apprenticeship could look like. Now that we have greater freedom to rethink society, these are the exciting new challenges we must focus on.
© Daniel Riveong 2018
Tags: development economics prosperity
Welcome to Earth, the Sub-Optimized Planet
Posted By Administration, Wednesday, June 20, 2018
Adam Cowart is one of our Emerging Fellows, and this is his sixth article written for the program. In it, he explores the potential of sub-optimized ecosystems. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the APF or its members.
What role can – or will – innovation play in the future of the real economy? To begin, let's start with the simplest definition of innovation. Innovation is "creating results by doing new things." The "doing new things" part is fairly self-explanatory on the surface. It is the process of doing something in a way in which it was not previously done. Although, often, we may have done something, then stopped doing it, then started doing it again either aware or unaware of having done it in the past. But the "creating results" piece of the definition is less clear. What, precisely, is a result? A positive outcome? And, if so, a positive outcome for whom? We can say that, today, an innovative result is one in which we either save money, make money, or provide some sort of social or environmental good. But are those the results we should be aiming for? Do we care, or even understand, how these results impact and influence other components of the global system? And, for our purposes here, how will our definition of "results" evolve in the future? The point here is not to focus on types of results reporting, such as triple bottom line or happiness index-type measurements. The purpose here is on the deeper structural challenges to "real" innovation.
There is no question that what we might call "innovation-offset" occurs across a system or multiple subsystems. How often does an innovation in one area generate an offsetting process inefficiency or product redundancy in another? Put another way, if you innovate in one area, to the detriment of another area, are you really innovating at all? And how would you even know?
Two common terms used to describe this phenomenon are sub-optimization and shifting the burden. Sub-optimization commonly refers to silo-type thinking within an organization. This leads to non-value added activities, redundancy, or diminished returns. Shifting the burden, on the other hand, is a term generally meant to describe a tendency to focus on resolving surface-level, symptomatic issues, pushing costs and negative externalities onto others.
What we might call "sub-optimization ecosystems" are now a vital part of the real economy, not only the maintenance of them, but the perpetual attempts to circumnavigate them. By focusing on the self-interest of the firm at the expense of the larger system, we are inherently sub-optimizing. We ostensibly innovate within a department, across a division, across a firm, across an industry, across multiple industries, then across whole economies. There is no escape.
Our attention has been focused on what we can call the migratory patterns of money. How its shapes and structures tend to manifest. And here, we see a profitable innovation ecosystem, where activity and expenditure is its own reward. But wait, isn't innovation inherently messy? An iterative process of trial and error. "Fail fast to succeed sooner"?
Consider what percentage of global GDP is dedicated to activities that solve problems by creating new problems elsewhere. Cycles of pointless zero-sum innovation. At a time of complexity, instead of adopting the tools of social innovation and systems change, we have doubled down on the mercurial dark arts of sub-optimization, masked as real innovation.
Tags: economics environment innovation
Why aren't nukes ever enough?
Posted By Administration, Monday, June 18, 2018
Craig Perry has written his sixth installment in our Emerging Fellows program. His entire series explores the potential for another Great-power War. This piece asks an important question about nukes and their effectiveness as a deterrent. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the APF or its other members.
For all their destructive potential, nuclear weapons ushered in an unprecedented era of global stability after 1945, deterring the great powers from the kinds of internecine conflicts that risk their mutual destruction. But this period hasn't been entirely peaceful, either, as states and non-state actors have sporadically waged more limited wars the old-fashioned way—that is, utilizing "conventional" weapons—whenever they calculate the odds of nuclear escalation are low. Consequently, powers great and small have continued to arm themselves with military capabilities of ever-increasing speed and lethality, determined to gain a decisive advantage on some future battlefield—an unfortunate function of survival in our anarchic international system.
For much of the Cold War, the United States made little effort to match the Soviet Union's massive conventional-warfare superiority in Europe, calculating that its nuclear arsenal would be enough to offset any Soviet military advantage. Beginning in the late 1970s, however, the Pentagon embarked on a new offset strategy incorporating technological breakthroughs in precision-guided munitions, radar-evading stealth technology aircraft, and space-based communications and navigation. Rather than rely on the traditional American way of war—attrition and annihilation—this revolution in military affairs allowed relatively small numbers of highly nimble American and allied forces to defeat numerically superior adversaries, as dramatically demonstrated during such operations as Desert Storm (1991) and Iraqi Freedom (2003), while sharply reducing civilian casualties and collateral damage.
Some scholars attribute the collapse of the Soviet Union in part to its failed efforts to keep up with the West in this expensive, high-tech arms race—and for decades afterward the United States had no peers in terms of conventional military capabilities. But a funny thing happened on the way to American global hegemony: while Washington diverted resources away from cutting-edge investments after 9/11, Moscow and Beijing slowly but surely began closing the capability gap through a combination of indigenous know-how, industrial espionage, and lessons learned from U.S. military operations. In recent years, Russia and China have developed increasingly effective air defense systems to blunt America's signature warfighting advantage, and deployed sophisticated missile systems on a variety of platforms to complicate U.S. ground and maritime operations near their territory. Such anti-access, area-denial measures complement their markedly improved power-projection capabilities now on display in Syria and the South China Sea, respectively.
Not to be outdone, the U.S. Department of Defense recently embarked on a third offset strategy to harness innovations in artificial intelligence, automation, additive manufacturing, and other fields. While traditional weapons acquisition processes have become increasingly unaffordable—with more and more money spent procuring fewer and fewer high-end aircraft, ships, and armored vehicles—this latest approach hopes to reduce costs by disaggregating marquee platforms into more specialized networked systems leveraging off-the-shelf commercial technology. Of course, this same technology is accessible to America's rivals as well, suggesting U.S. forces will soon need to develop new defenses against the very drone swarms and other "futuristic" weaponry they are currently developing, in a seemingly never-ending cycle.
Unfortunately, such military modernization has the potential to make great-power conflict more likely, their credible nuclear deterrents notwithstanding. Both Russia and China perceive America's superior conventional capabilities—coupled with its expanding anti-ballistic missile networks in Europe and Asia—as destabilizing, since they could facilitate preemptive U.S. attacks targeting their nuclear arsenals. Meanwhile, each country is developing its own expeditionary forces capable of quickly seizing nearby territory, then (theoretically) holding out against an anticipated U.S.-led conventional counterattack—which may embolden them to resolve a greater variety of regional disputes militarily, especially where they judge the United States unwilling to intervene at the risk of nuclear war.
This combination of mutual distrust and localized military parity is increasing the likelihood of strategic miscalculation, and undermining the logic of nuclear deterrence that has constrained great-power competition for nearly three-quarters of a century. While it remains unlikely that the United States, Russia, or China will launch large-scale attacks on each other in the coming decades, they could very well become embroiled in regional conflicts that devolve into direct military confrontation among the great powers—conflicts with the potential for a much wider global conflagration.
Tags: attack politics war
Do we need new levers to close infrastructure investment gaps?
Posted By Administration, Tuesday, June 5, 2018
Daniel Bonin's fourth post in our Emerging Fellows program concerns infrastructure investment gaps. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the APF or its other members.
Forecasts suggest that infrastructure investment gaps are here to stay, especially when it comes to transportation and electricity. How can we close these gaps by 2050? The World Economic Forum distinguishes three major levers: (a) reduce demand, (b) build new infrastructures and (c) optimize existing infrastructures. There may be two additional important levers on our way to 2050 that stem from the growing connectedness of people and intelligent things paired with self-executing contracts (i.e. smart contracts). The first lever is novel pricing models for infrastructure usage or, more exactly an "intelligent user charges principle". The second lever relates to effective altruism movement, the idea of identifying areas where one additional Euro can create the most impact.
Today, we are used to all kinds of pricing structures to pay for products and services. Product purchase, freemium models, flat rates or pay per use are part of everyday life. There is a second class of pricing structures that benefit from the growing connectedness and powerful algorithms. These have just started to become a normal part of life. There is Uber's surge pricing that is based on market demand levels. Contingency pricing, which is common in the manufacturing or energy sectors, conditions the amount to be paid on the performance of the contractor. Any Mac user who tries to book a flight should be familiar with differential pricing, pricing based on the type of customer. So why shouldn't we pay a dynamically adapted price for each time we "consume" infrastructures? Think of paying a certain amount of money per kilometer travelled? We could be reimbursed for travelling during off-peak hours or pay extra to have priority during peak hours. Depending on how the fuel economy of our car ranks compared to the median fuel economy or whether we share a ride or not, we would pay a dynamic price per kilometer travelled. And who has not yet dreamed about punishing the SatNav for inefficient routing? There could even be subsidies to foster the adoption of new environmentally friendly technologies. What about subsidies for vehicles that pro-actively improve the air quality in cities or discounts for socially disadvantaged families? The possibilities are endless and so are the synergies. If we track the kilometers we travel, we could also identify the roads that are working at a particularly high level of capacity utilization and allocate maintenance and expansion investments accordingly. This is similar to effective altruism, which tries to identify areas where a certain amount of money can generate the largest societal impact.
This may sound like Sci-Fi, but if we take all the buzz around the Internet of Things, distributed ledgers like Blockchain and Artificial Intelligence seriously, why shouldn't the intelligent charge principle and effective altruism be feasible? Yes, there are various obstacles. For instance, we would need to quantify and balance a tremendous number of aspects. There are ethical questions like how should eligibility for discounts be calculated? Is it OK to favour densely populated areas and how can we make sure that infrastructures with low capacity usage are not side-lined? All these are questions and trade-offs that we need to find answers to in any case amid budget constraints. I believe that both, user charge principle and effective altruism driven infrastructure planning can help to find fairer answers and pose the right questions.
Another argument for why we need to consider both levers is, that on our way to a more sustainable world, certain trends undermine the ability of our existing infrastructure funding mechanisms to function properly. Firstly, we will need a lot of resources to roll out an intelligent transport and energy infrastructure. Secondly, E-mobility and mobility services with lower vehicle ownership have a negative impact on today's infrastructure funding mechanisms. While E-mobility and more efficient transport systems reduce externalities and perhaps even infrastructure demand, they also reduce revenues from fuel taxes. The impact of E-mobility is even more far-reaching as this new paradigm will increase the investment needs for our energy grids. With lower private car ownership due to mobility as a service paradigm, countries with historically high motorization rates will see their tax revenues from car registration dwindle. In order to secure a steady monetary stream for infrastructure maintenance and expansion, we need to establish a policy that links taxes to the actual usage of infrastructures. These examples also raise another question: with all that change in terms of way of living and technology until 2050, do we overestimate future infrastructure demand or does Jevons paradox hold true? I will try to address this question in the next post.
© Daniel Bonin 2018
Tags: economics infrastructure technology
Literacy for the Year 20018
Posted By Administration, Monday, June 4, 2018
Monica Porteanu has written her fifth installment in our Emerging Fellows program. Here, she explores the evolving meaning of the word literacy. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the APF or its other members.
At its origin, the term "literacy" meant "the ability to read and write." Although it was first recorded in the 19th century, coinciding with the beginning of the industrial era, specialists have studied its evolution starting from much earlier times. One of the ways they have tracked literacy was through signatures on marriage certificates. When discussing literacy and the industrial revolution, economic historians such as E.G. West, note that "the evidence on literacy and schooling is interdependent." His study suggests that "literacy specialists usually describe figures of schooling as 'indirect evidence' of literacy. Schooling specialists, meanwhile, regard literacy as 'indirect evidence' of schooling."
With the transition from the Industrial to the knowledge era, the term has evolved to convey the message of "competence or knowledge in a specific area." For example, in addition to reading and writing, organizations such as OECD discuss numeracy and financial literacy. Futurists advocate for future literacy. Others address health or science literacy, with reading and writing is now considered fundamental literacies.
What does it mean for the era we are in? Arguably, we are still attempting to understand what that is. The knowledge era seemed to have been first identified by Peter Drucker, in 1959, when he introduced the concept of the knowledge worker. Today, the term seems more relevant as ever. Some suggest that 2018 belongs to the era of the humans or the Anthropocene, while the World Economic Forum points to the fourth industrial revolution. Eras, nevertheless, seem to be better defined after the fact. Literacies, however, seem to prepare us for what's to come. Asking what these literacies are, regardless of how we choose to name an era, seems timely. Today's literacy types include technological and informational competencies, which have been essential for a while now. Such a trend appears to continue, but for how long could it last? With the current aims of developing systems that are highly usable by humans, will there continue to be a need for deep technological literacy?
What might the literacies for tomorrow look like? Would they still be interdependent with schooling, as noted for the industrial era? How could one prepare for a future when the current rate of change is high already?
While possible but unknown tomorrows unfold in our imagination, they still have two things in common: (1) they are uncertain; and (2) preparing for them is ambiguous. At the same time, most of us have difficulties dealing with ambiguity. In fact, social psychologist Geert Hofstede has identified "uncertainty avoidance" as one of the six dimensions of culture. His study across about 100 nations, reveals that globally, the human comfort with ambiguity sits, on average, at about 36%. The other 64% of the time, humans seem to prefer to control the future. The higher such preference is, the more rigid the codes of beliefs, behaviour, and intolerance are.
But how could one control the future? At best, we can prepare. Getting ready for next year seems attainable with current competencies. Bracing for five years from now would include a multitude of assumptions, and potentially competency changes. How about ten years out? Or fifty? The longer the time horizon, the more we seem to joke about and care less how far ahead we talk about. At the same time, such a view would encourage us to switch our thinking beyond what we know today.
In this context, let's say, the year is 20018, eighteen thousand years ahead of now. What literacies would prepare us for 20018? By that time, we could be back to an agrarian era, or become Martians, or non-existent altogether. Who knows? Breathing might become the literacy of those times. What would prepare us for such eras, seems to be our ability to deal with the ambiguity awaiting us. Shouldn't we think about ambiguity as critical literacy? How might such literacy be developed?
Some might argue that ambiguity develops during critical thinking or resilience practice or training events. The same event though still sets the expectations for a determined outcome by the end of it, such as earning a grade, job, or advancement. Others might point to life events or religion as good teachers of ambiguity.
Overall, the current schooling system cannot train us to be at ease in ambiguous environments. So do most of existing societal dimensions, including economics, politics, and governance. Isn't it the time to address that?
© Monica Porteanu 2018
Tags: economics education politics
Morality First, Knowledge Second?
Posted By Administration, Thursday, May 24, 2018
Polina Silakova's fifth post in our Emerging Fellows program explores the role of morality and manners amid disruptive technologies. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the APF or its other members.
If you have ever travelled around Vietnam, you might have noticed at the main entrance of some schools the motto, previously ubiquitous in the communist era: "Tien hoc le, hau hoc van". The direct meaning refers to the importance to learn proper manners in human relations first, and only then start learning other things that you would normally learn at school. Loosely it can be translated as "morality comes before knowledge". In the past, it has served as a good call for millions of Vietnamese students and really, would not hurt anyone to be reminded of it. We are wondering if this prioritisation would still be applicable to our world of rapidly growing technologies?
The past couple of months offered us some food for thought on the evolution of business ethics in the light of technological progress.
– Facebook makes money from selling our data, which it gets in exchange for letting us share this very data free of charge – is it a fair deal? While regulators are only attempting to catch up with technicalities of this business model, Facebook continues benefiting from this knowledge gap.
– The first pedestrian died from an autonomous car approved by Uber for public roads, even with a vehicle operator behind the steering wheel. Was it human complacency with an autonomous vehicle offering a relaxing ride? Did the launch of the system happen too early, rushed by the appetite for a quicker return on investments? Or was it the lack of maturity in this field that prevented good judgement on whether the system is ready for operation?
What previously was good or bad as black and white, has now shifted into a grey area.
While in these cases Facebook users and Uber testing the driverless technology might be victims of ignorance and lack of caution, some other innovations make us concerned about the way the ethics of consumers might evolve in the future in our market society. Augmented reality and cruel video games; robots and the sex industry; more generally, robots as household servants (or slaves?). One can say that whatever people choose to do in their free time is their business, but wouldn't it be naive to assume that the change in our own morality will have no implication for society?
A further twist to these already ambiguous scenarios came out of the study on human-robot interaction conducted by researchers from MIT and Stanford. Their experiments have shown that when people work with autonomous robots and errors occur, humans tend to blame the robots rather than themselves. Interestingly, when a success occurs, we humans take the credit more frequently than giving it to the machine. In another word, our habit to shift responsibility for mistakes from ourselves to other people remains unchanged when we get to deal with autonomous tech-friends instead of our familiar colleagues.
This poses further questions on what implications this might have for ethics in a high-tech post-capitalistic world. Who will take responsibility for decisions made by a board which consists of both humans and AI? One of the first non-human board directors – VITAL – already gets to vote in board meetings together with five human directors in a venture capital firm in Hong Kong. While VITAL only takes decisions on investments, where its skills in scanning large volumes of data come in particularly handy, we can only imagine how this might play out with advancements in deep learning. Will we still be sure that the machine is acting in the company's interests? And if reality shows the opposite, who is to blame?
How will ethical decision-making evolve in the future? Will it be something a majority demands? Something the powerful agree on? Or something that AI would recommend as the least harmful option? What is clear is that it is becoming increasingly dependent upon how much we know about technology and its implications for society. Knowledge starts to inform morality and we should challenge ourselves to stay up to speed to make sure we take decisions that meet our moral standards.
Tags: Facebook society technology
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text:
Trending Now in Food
Eric Wang
Jinya
DC Restaurants Are Betting Food and Wine Subscriptions Are Here to Stay
Startup Table22 is behind Rose's Luxury's dinner club and Kramers' wine and book club.
Written by Jessica Sidman
Rose's Luxury's famous lychee salad. The restaurant is among those offering dinner club memberships via Table22.
One of the few bright spots to come out of the pandemic was the many wine clubs, meal kits, and takeout options that restaurants dreamed up on the fly just to survive. Now that dining out has returned back to "normal," though, many restaurants are looking to make those at-home options a permanent part of their business models. A New York-based tech startup called Table22 has already taken a strong foothold in DC, helping restaurants formalize the logistics of subscription-based dining and drinking—and allowing them to ramp it up in an even bigger way.
Like so many others, Table22 founder and CEO Sam Bernstein saw his business grind to a halt in the spring of 2020. His previous tech company, LoftSmart, allowed young people to search for and book housing online—a service which became practically obsolete when universities went virtual.
"We had kind of the same come-to-Jesus moment that a lot of restaurants did in March of 2020 where we basically saw the whole business evaporate," Bernstein says. "I basically came to our board and said, 'We're totally screwed. What do you want to do?'"
The board wanted him to—yes, that word again—pivot. So with a trimmed-down staff, he set out to come up with a totally new business. As an "obsessive food and restaurants person," he landed on the idea of setting up a platform and delivery infrastructure for restaurants to build subscription-based clubs around food and drinks that often aren't on the regular menu. A big inspiration? Patreon, which helps creators get closer to their fans while building a predictable income stream.
In the less than two years since, Table22 has signed on nearly 300 restaurants across 50 cities nationwide. It expanded to DC about a year ago and now works with 20 restaurants here, including some big names like Rose's Luxury, Anju, and Federalist Pig. Bernstein says an additional 10 or so are joining the platform over the next couple months.
Rose's, for example, is offering dinner club and wine club memberships with exclusive monthly tasting menus (starting at $110 for two) and hard-to-find bottles (starting at $70 for two bottles) for delivery or pick up. Kramers, meanwhile, has a book and wine club with monthly reads from your favorite genre paired with your preferred type of bottles (starting at $39). Or if you prefer, swap in a bag of coffee beans for the wine (starting at $29). There's also a pasta kit club from La Collina in Capitol Hill and gin club from its sister cocktail bar the Wells. While you can sign up for ongoing cancel-anytime subscriptions, many places are also offering gifting options for the holidays.
"Many of our restaurants around the country are generating hundreds of thousands of dollars [a year], including a number in DC," Bernstein says. "We try not to name who specifically, but I've got one partner in DC that's doing three-quarters of a million dollars of annual revenue [off subscriptions]."
Bernstein notes that the profit margins tend to be better than your typical in-house dining. Because orders come in weeks in advance, restaurants are able to do more efficient and cost-effective batch production with virtually no waste of ingredients. Table22, which provides its own fleet of vehicles and delivery drivers, takes a cut—typically 10 percent—of the subscription revenue.
As for the name Table22? It's the table Bernstein would often sit at as a regular of New York's Pascale Jones (which, actually, is not a partner with his company).
"I was there all the time, and it was the first place where I really experienced kind of the magic of being a regular," he says. "It's the magic we hope our subscribers will feel."
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More: AnjuKramersrestaurant subscriptionsRose's LuxuryTable22
Jessica Sidman
Food Editor
Jessica Sidman covers the people and trends behind D.C.'s food and drink scene. Before joining Washingtonian in July 2016, she was Food Editor and Young & Hungry columnist at Washington City Paper. She is a Colorado native and University of Pennsylvania grad.
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
#pragma once
#include <aws/sesv2/SESV2_EXPORTS.h>
#include <aws/sesv2/SESV2Request.h>
#include <aws/core/utils/memory/stl/AWSString.h>
#include <utility>

namespace Aws
{
namespace SESV2
{
namespace Model
{

  /**
   *
A request to retrieve the results of a predictive inbox placement
   * test.

See Also:
   AWS
   * API Reference

   */
  class AWS_SESV2_API GetDeliverabilityTestReportRequest : public SESV2Request
  {
  public:
    GetDeliverabilityTestReportRequest();

    // Service request name is the Operation name which will send this request out,
    // each operation should has unique request name, so that we can get operation's name from this request.
    // Note: this is not true for response, multiple operations may have the same response name,
    // so we can not get operation's name from response.
    inline virtual const char* GetServiceRequestName() const override { return "GetDeliverabilityTestReport"; }

    Aws::String SerializePayload() const override;

    /**
     *
A unique string that identifies the predictive inbox placement test.

     */
    inline const Aws::String& GetReportId() const{ return m_reportId; }

    /**
     *
A unique string that identifies the predictive inbox placement test.

     */
    inline bool ReportIdHasBeenSet() const { return m_reportIdHasBeenSet; }

    /**
     *
A unique string that identifies the predictive inbox placement test.

     */
    inline void SetReportId(const Aws::String& value) { m_reportIdHasBeenSet = true; m_reportId = value; }

    /**
     *
A unique string that identifies the predictive inbox placement test.

     */
    inline void SetReportId(Aws::String&& value) { m_reportIdHasBeenSet = true; m_reportId = std::move(value); }

    /**
     *
A unique string that identifies the predictive inbox placement test.

     */
    inline void SetReportId(const char* value) { m_reportIdHasBeenSet = true; m_reportId.assign(value); }

    /**
     *
A unique string that identifies the predictive inbox placement test.

     */
    inline GetDeliverabilityTestReportRequest& WithReportId(const Aws::String& value) { SetReportId(value); return *this;}

    /**
     *
A unique string that identifies the predictive inbox placement test.

     */
    inline GetDeliverabilityTestReportRequest& WithReportId(Aws::String&& value) { SetReportId(std::move(value)); return *this;}

    /**
     *
A unique string that identifies the predictive inbox placement test.

     */
    inline GetDeliverabilityTestReportRequest& WithReportId(const char* value) { SetReportId(value); return *this;}

  private:

    Aws::String m_reportId;
    bool m_reportIdHasBeenSet;
  };

} // namespace Model
} // namespace SESV2
} // namespace Aws

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


The major assignment of Winter Quarter is a research paper, written on a topic of your choosing.
more topic(s) in contemporary Portland, Oregon.
unique/original interpretation of the topic.
This assignment is designed to exercise your abilities in all four of the University Studies goals.
attendance over the next few weeks will be very important.
announce these readings in class, through email, and on the course syllabus.
submit a proposal outlining your project.
D2L by 11:30pm on Friday, January 22.
on D2L by 11:30pm on Friday, January 29.
hard copy at mentor session and digital copy on D2L by 7:00am on Tuesday, February 9.
sources in your final paper. Due on D2L by 7:00am on Thursday, February 18.
by no means an exhaustive list, and you are free to choose a topic that is not listed here.


Big Oak is the brainchild of a former tech consulting expert and a print and web designer. Since it started in 2004, Big Oak has lived true to its core philosophy of making sure businesses benefit from the Internet in reaching out to a vast audience, attracting new clients, and promoting sales. The company goes the extra mile to guarantee great results for their clientele.
The Virginia-based firm has enjoyed significant growth since it began, as it has already set up an office in New York. It has worked with companies such as Sillyass Toys, Agee Woodworking, Exhibit Deal, Danforth Diamond, and Snag A Job. The company's experience with different firms coming from various industries has exposed their team to a multitude of techniques in SEO, web design and development, and link building.
Big Oak takes pride in its highly flexible approach in dealing with SEO strategies. As specialists in local SEO, the company maximizes different techniques and applies it at logical points in a campaign, continuously adapting to the ever-changing search engine landscape. Through comprehensive keyword research, website optimization, link building, and monthly updates, Big Oak makes sure that their clients gain ROI.
Big Oak displays complete dedication and discipline to the principles of natural search engine optimization. Along with the efforts of going out on a limb to help its customers, Big Oak has figured out the formula to run marketing campaigns successfully.


These are the days I wish for. The days that are short and sweet. The days where I go into work and a few hours I am home. These are the days that keep me going.
I woke up at 8:30am happy to know I will be going to work and back home early. I even had a bowl cereal to start off my day before leaving the house to take a short 20 minute drive. The lady I work with and I were going to be at a new location upon request. It is always nice to be somewhere that people actually look forward to seeing us. It adds a little more passion to the job.
Driving onto the property I was amazed. It was well taken care of and at first I thought I was at a park. From the entrance no buildings are visible except for the security booth at the gate. Almost national park like. If it were not for the business logos stationed on a mason wall, I might have missed it entirely.
We set up within an hour and got started right after. For 2 hours it very consistent business. First it was one, then 3, then a crowd. We moved the orders out of the window as fast as possible trying to please the people waiting patiently. By 2pm not a single soul was around. Once the crowd died down, we were finished.
While walking around her trailer I stumbled upon good fortune. I found a $5 bill tucked away at the bottom of a thorn bush. Reaching in for it felt like that scene on "Lion King" when Simba was trying to escape his homeland. Just like he I came out victorious. Then she found $10 bill by the rear of her truck in a different part of the bush. We called it The Magic Money Bush.
Before heading home, I stopped at the bank to make a deposit. My account was getting low and I have a few bills that I need to pay. One is a ticket I got on Sunday and the other is my credit card.
Finally home I showered while a load of laundry washed up in the machine. Waiting for the machine to stop I ended up taking a 2 hour nap. During my drive home I could barely focus. Even with my glasses on my eyesight was blurred.
I think I might be pushing too hard. But I only need to last till the end of the season. After October things will die down and I might be able to rest. Today I took advantage of the time I had. IT FELT GREAT!
Once up I played with my nephew, had myself some dinner, and around 9:45pm started to write.
At this point I realized that I need to slow down. At least temporary. My days are usually non-stop and my stamina is wearing down. I love writing these to release stress and hopefully entertain someone but I need to focus on resting as well as my new business. I do not plan on stopping completely but making it less consistent. Instead of every day, maybe I will sleep when I should and write when it does not feel like a burden. The articles will continue, for sure, but the journals will become sporadic, for now.


Do you have a question or concern you'd like to discuss with your beat officer? Use this form to tell us more. If you need immediate assistance or have an emergency, please call 911.
View the map to see what beat you live in and contact information for your Beat Team Leader.


Anabi DWGConverter can convert and view DWG, DXF, DWF and DGN files.
--- add, delete and clear.
--- zoom in, zoom out and zoom extents.
--- user fonts, default fonts and missing fonts.
--- pdf settings, dwf settings, dwg settings.
--- part of display to pdf, bmp.
--- support dwg, dxf, dwf and dgn.
--- export pdf, svg ,dwf, bmp and dwg.
--- Download dependent fonts from the internet (click the Missing Window to see missing fonts in App).
--- Click the Add Fonts button to load missing fonts into the App.
--- Restart the app and re-display the file.
1. Add user font map.
2. Add pdf, dwf and dwg settings.
3. Export part of display contents to pdf.
The App plots the entire model space to include blank space. The output files are worthless for use. Save your money.
When I convert I get a black image and well. Don't waste your money.
Tried to convert dwg model, got nothing but a black image?
© Copyright (c) 2016 - 2018 yujian. All rights reserved.


A 28 year old man develops an acute paronychia and subsequent spreading sepsis. The tissue exudate has a higher protein content than normal tissue because?
The increased permeability allows the exudation of plasma proteins.
Inflammation is the reaction of the tissue elements to injury. Vascular changes occur, resulting in the generation of a protein rich exudate. So long as the injury does not totally destroy the existing tissue architecture, the episode may resolve with restoration of original tissue architecture.
Vasodilation occurs and persists throughout the inflammatory phase.
Inflammatory cells exit the circulation at the site of injury.
The equilibrium that balances Starlings forces within capillary beds is disrupted and a protein rich exudate will form as the vessel walls also become more permeable to proteins.
The high fibrinogen content of the fluid may form a fibrin clot. This has several important immunomodulatory functions.


We've rounded up the best game deals from Australia's leading retailers.
We all want the latest games on the day of release (and preferably a special edition), but at full price, you're looking at forking out up to $109.95 for a day one purchase. Video game pricing can differ vastly across multiple retailers, but not everyone has the time to scrupulously search every store's website for the best price.
At finder, we've done the hard work for you and tracked down the best prices on the latest games in Australia.
Find the best deals on the latest games from digital and physical retailers in Australia below.
Wreckfest review : Oh what a day! What a LOVELY day!


text:
India's Rate Cut Has Got Consumers Excited
Ansuya Harjani	| @Ansuya_H
Published 1:15 AM ET Tue, 29 Jan 2013 Updated 10:13 PM ET Tue, 29 Jan 2013 CNBC.com
Moodboard | Cultura | Getty Images
Gaurav Prakash, a private equity associate in his late 20s, working in India's financial capital Mumbai, recently shelved plans to purchase his first home in the city, given burdensome interest rates, however, the latest move by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has rekindled his interest in getting back into the market.
"I would be looking for a place in the range of rupees 2-3 crores ($370,000-556,000), so changes in interest rates have a huge impact in the way that I look at purchasing a property...loans are a very important part of financing it," Prakash, who recently got married and is looking to buy a home, told CNBC.
The RBI lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 7.75 percent on Tuesday for the first time in nine months, in addition to a 25 basis point cut to the cash reserve ratio for banks to 4 percent. The central bank has been reluctant to reduce interest rates due to persistent inflation, despite weak GDP (gross domestic product) growth - which languished near a 3-year low in the third quarter of 2012.
(Read More: India Cuts Rates for First Time in Nine Months )
India's closely watched wholesale price index (WPI) which has eased over the past three months, impacted RBI's latest decision. However, it is still well above the RBI's comfort zone of 4-5 percent.
Boost to Consumer Sentiment
While the single rate cut may not have a sizable impact on bringing down borrowing costs, it will provide a sentiment boost for Indian consumers, said experts, pointing to the property and auto sectors as the primary beneficiaries of policy easing. The two industries are particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates as purchases are largely financed through bank loans.
"The rate cut may build expectations of an easing cycle...demand for more real estate and automobile loans will start increasing marginally," said Rahul Bajoria, economist at Barclays. He forecasts 100 basis points in rate cuts over 2013.
India has among the highest lending rates of the world's major economies. Benchmark interest rates in large emerging markets such as China and Brazil, for example, stand at 6 percent and 7.25 percent, respectively.
Between 2010 and 2011, India's central bank aggressively tightened monetary policy, hiking rates 13 times to 8.5 percent as growth began to recover following the global financial crisis. In April 2012, it lowered rates by 50 basis points to boost economic activity, but paused thereafter despite mounting pressure to lower borrowing costs and boost growth, which fell to as low as 5.3 percent last year.
(Read More: Why India Struggles to Deliver Its Growth Potential)
Signal to Homebuyers
Samantak Das, director, research and advisory services at Knight Frank India agreed that more than the impact on borrowing costs, the RBI's 25 basis point rate cut sends a positive "signal" to potential home buyers.
High home loan rates and worries over economic growth have weighed on the country's housing market in the past year. During the first half of 2012, home sales witnessed steep declines of 40 percent in major cities, including Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore - compared to the preceding six months - local media reported, citing real estate services firm CBRE.
"This is a good trigger. Because the real estate sector is rate sensitive the market believes that any rate cut will help push demand. From a customer's point of view this will improve liquidity and reduce the interest burden," JC Sharma, managing director, Sobha Developers, Bangalore told Reuters.
Das, who foresees 150-200 basis points cuts in the next 12 months, however, believes it will take some time before the market sees a large pick-up in transaction volumes as buyers hold off purchases in anticipation of additional easing.
In order to see a material increase in sales volumes, rates would need to fall around 200 basis points, he added. Home loans are currently at an all-time peak, according to Jones Lang La Salle, at around 11 percent.
For the auto market, Mohit Arora, executive director at J.D. Power and Associates, said it is a similar picture. "Seventy percent of all car purchases are made through loans, so it does impact sentiment there."
While a reduction in car loan rates - which currently stand around 10 percent - will do little to boost luxury car sales, as buyers are less price sensitive, Arora said it would benefit sales of mid-price range cars from makers Hyundai and Honda.
India's auto market has been under pressure from falling sales in recent months as the economic slowdown, rising ownership costs and high interest rates curb demand. In November, for example, car sales fell over 8 percent from a year earlier.
(Read More: India's November Car Sales Slump, Outlook Grim Too)
While the RBI's rate cut is a step in the right direction for generating demand in the two sectors, analysts said a more notable boost to consumption will come about if January's rate cut evolves into an easing cycle.
The central bank did hint in its quarterly monetary policy review that growth risks would be given greater emphasis in monetary policy, kindling hopes of a possible start to the cycle.
"The Reserve Bank of India is definitely less hawkish in its statement, and we think it will remain in the easing mode in 2013, " Sujan Hajra, chief economist, Anand Rathi Securities in Mumbai told Reuters.
Ansuya HarjaniWriter, CNBC Asia


Here are some important points you need to take in consideration while creating your trading system.
Always be skeptical about your own ideas, focus only on results. Sometimes is easy to track trading opportunities, what is hard is to capitalize on them and make money from them. The performance of any trading system should be measured with actual trading (either demo or an account with limited funds).
Sometimes you lose even when you have followed your system to the rules. Losses are part of the game, there is no possible way to avoid them, and we need to learn to lose. So if you have followed your system 100% and took a loss, celebrate it! The only way to stay ahead of the game is by rigorously following your system.
Sometimes while trading large positions you can lose control of your emotions. Don't be overly aggressive with the market and follow a well planned money management technique. It should tell you what you are going to risk on your next trade.
Try to understand why your system works, this way you will develop the required confidence in yourself and your system.
There will always be some "indicator" that could have kept you out of a losing trade. But remember your system is not designed to win all your trades, but to win most of them.
When you finally created your system, describe it in simple and logical terms. If a 15 year old kid is not able to understand it, then something is wrong with it.
Use only 2-3 indicators: one indicator to identify the trend and one or two indicators or variables for entries and exits. The more indicators you use, the more complicated your system becomes. Most of the time "the simpler the system the better performance it will have". Also use non-correlated indicators, do not choose two indicators that are supposed to measure the same market condition.
Test your system over large data samples (over 50 trades) and in various market conditions, this way you can see under what conditions your system works better.
If you decide to trade several currency pairs, try non-correlated pairs. For instance, if you trade long the Euro and long The Pound, your are likely to get the same result on both of them, elevating your risk if the market goes against you.
News trading? Determine whether you are going to keep your trades open during important news announcements. If you are trading for the short term you are likely to keep tight stops, and an important news announcement might hit your stop loss level.
While you are in a trade, open your mind to every possibility, sometimes you don't see or ignore evidence against your trade.


text:
1938: Protein Chemistry, Vol. VI
Proteins are now so well understood and so much a part of our knowledge that it is almost impossible to put ourselves in the position of the participants in the 1938 Symposium. For example, in that year, Linderstrom-Lang, Hotchkiss and Lang had written in Nature that their data on protein denaturation "..provide sufficient basis for giving a warning against the conclusion that genuine proteins contain peptide bonds..." And, as late as the 1949 Symposium, Fred Sanger could write that his results with insulin "...suggest that each position in a protein chain is occupied by a single unique amino acid residue...it does suggest that proteins are real chemical entities with a unique structure...". The 1938 Symposium was attended by many of the most (or soon to be) eminent protein chemists of the day—Max Bergmann, Edwin Cohn, John Edsall, Joseph Fruton, Hans Neurath, Carl Niemann, Dorothy Wrinch, and Ralph Wyckoff—and it provides an illuminating snapshot of the uncertainties and confusion that surrounded the nature of proteins.
Niemann, for example, discussed a theory of protein structure developed by himself and Bergmann. They believed that the total number of amino acids in a protein could be expressed in the from 2n x 3m, and that each amino acid occurred at the same interval along the polypeptide chain—A.B.C.A.B.C.A.B.C etc. A numerological approach was also the foundation of Wrinch's cyclol or fabric theory of protein structure. On
the other hand, Fruton presented experimental data showing that proteinases were able to cleave the peptide bond in synthetic peptides, suggesting that that was their mode of action on native proteins. Wendell Stanley (who was to win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1946) had crystallized Tobacco Mosaic Virus only three years earlier and he discussed, among other topics, his attempts to produce an infectious viral protein.
Descriptions of biophysical studies were, of course, much in evidence. Irving Langmuir (Nobel Prize in Chemistry, 1932) described his studies of proteins spread as monomolecular films while William Astbury described his and Florence Bell's X-ray crystallography studies, interpreted in terms of Bergmann and Niemann's ideas. Astbury's paper is interesting also as the first occasion on which an X-ray crystallographic analysis of DNA was presented. Astbury elaborated on his note in Nature that had appeared two months earlier, and showed a diagram of his "pile-of-pennies" model.


With an international reputation as a leading designer of furniture, home accessories and wall sculptures, Martha Sturdy is known for creating distinctive artwork that is bold, clean and simple. Martha takes artistic simplicity and makes oversized statements using materials such as casting resin, leather, steel and brass. Martha's most recent artworks - Wall Sculptures - are a natural progression of her creative expression. The Wall Sculptures are created from cold rolled steel and hang from 40 inches up to eight feet in size. Like all of her artwork, Martha's Wall Sculptures make a bold statement - a statement that has won the appreciation of designers, artists and collectors alike.
Please contact us for the name of your nearest sales representative.
Dining and Occasional Tables in Resin or Combo Resin & Steel; Resin, Brass and Steel Accessory Items; Steel Wall Sculpture.


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Q: Angular sticky footer no longer sticky, if within the app.component I want to create a sticky footer that sticks at the bottom if the content height is less than the view port, and moves down if the content height is greater than the view port. (right side of the image) It works the way I want with the following code:
My index.html:

...

  Header
  Main Content
  Footer

My styles.css:
body {
  display: flex;
  flex-direction: column;
  min-height: 100vh;
  margin: 0;
}

footer {
  margin-top: auto;
  background-color: #ff7e7e;
}

However, it no longer works when I move the footer to the app.component. The result looks like on the left side of the image.
My changed index.html:

...

  Header
  Main Content
  <app-root></app-root>

My app.component.html:
Footer

My app.component.css:
footer {
  margin-top: auto;
  background-color: #ff7e7e;
}

I think there's a problem with the encapsulation. Anybody got any ideas?

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Laura will be in Los Angeles for meetings and private appointments. More information on the events and classes on the services page. You can contact her at 310-598-7871 or bookings@laurapowers.net to see about availability.


text:
Home»TV & Audio»Televisions»FREESAT UHD-4X Smart 4K Ultra HD Digital TV Recorder – 1 TB
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SKU: 19201990895652 Categories: 4K TVs, HDMI cables, Televisions
1 TB of storage Never miss a thing with the Freesat UHD-4X Smart 4K Ultra HD Digital TV Recorder. With 1 TB of storage you can keep up to 500 hours of entertainment. It can also record up to 4 programmes at once, so you won't have to choose between which shows you want to record. Need to answer the phone whilst watching the news? Well you can pause live TV and catch up once you've finished chatting. You can even rewind and restart what you're watching, so you're not missing out on anything. Subscription-free TV It's able to receive over 180 TV and Radio channels, including more than 20 HD channels. You won't even need a subscription to enjoy the shows you love. Steaming and On Demand No more aimlessly flicking between stations until you find the right one with the Freesat 4K TV Box's easy-to-use menu system. Its handy 7-day program guide also lets you browse by channel or genre. And if it's streaming services you're after – you can quickly access BBC iPlayer, ITV Hub and Netflix all from a single button on the remote. You can even stream your favourite programs in 4K. Simple set-up It's easy to set up the Freesat 4K TV Box. If you have a working UK satellite dish then all you have to do is plug your satellite cables into the back of the box. ____________________________ Please note: Some apps & services may not be available outside of the UK, including Isle of Man and Channel Islands.
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5m VGA plus Audio Cable HD15 3.5mm
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text:
Q: Open-loop or Closed-loop (reactive) Path planning? When we do path planning for collision avoidance, we can realize it open-loop or closed-loop.
The open-loop method is to use an inherent simplified model, say, Bicycle model, for example, and propagate the system forward with an optimal input by designing a controller (MPC, or others). However, the states of the simplified model may surely diverge from the real ones due to modelling error as time goes by, hence we need to re-initialize the states of the path planner with the real system states (obtained via measurement or estimation). In this way, we have closed-loop planning. The question is that what frequency of this kind of re-initialization occurs? High re-initialization frequency makes the planning more accurate, but in the mean-time, it may cause zigzag sew-shape reference for the lower-level controller.

A: The answer to this is very system dependent. You are correct in saying that the open loop system is non-realizable. Planning/control is usually done in two stages.
1) Trajectory Generation: This is usually done predictivly or in open loop (the P in MPC). Depending on the ability of the lower level control, this need not be done too frequently. For example, if trajectory execution deviates from your planned beyond some threshold (or beyond stability guarantees) you would then have to re-plan.
2) Trajectory following/execution: Given an nominal trajectory (including nominal open loop controls), a lower level controller attempts to follow this as closely as possible. This would include a stabilizing controller such as LQR or something similar.
The key to understanding what "too fast" is for re-planning is how much your system drifts over time and what kind of safety guarantees you want to produce. For example, if you allow for a 5cm buffer around obstacles in your open loop plan then an appropriate time to re-plan would be when the robot deviates from the trajectory (in R3 for example) by some threshold less than 5cm. If you re-plan any later than that, you cannot guarantee that your robot will not collide with the static obstacles in the environment.
Clearly, this is driven by the accuracy of your model as well as how good a job your low level control does in following that trajectory. Ideally, if your model is reasonably accurate and if your low level control is very good, then no re-planning is necessary (assuming a static environment).


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In 2016 an important project for DEYAP was completed and put into operation. It is an integrated system of telecontrol, allowing the remote control of the network units and of eventual water leaks, worth approximately € 2.000.000, funded by European Funds. The system has 30 control stations and manages all drillings, tanks and pumping stations. There are also 10 stations that measure the pressure and supply of the network and identify possible leaks.
Through this integrated network control and management system, it is possible to identify faults and leaks in a timely manner, to organize maintenance and damage repair operations, and to save on material, human resources and, most importantly, water.


The idea of a southern border wall was in many ways the defining idea of Donald Trump's victorious presidential campaign. What was so appealing about his idea to so many Americans, and how did this promise resonate with other walls and boundaries already at work in everyday American life? These questions are at the heart of a new book project that Pandian is pursuing in far-flung corners of the United States, in the company of ordinary people from diverse walks of life. This talk shares stories and insights gleaned from this anthropological examination of contemporary America.
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text:
Huron is een plaats in Fresno County in Californië in de VS.

Geografie
Huron bevindt zich op 36°12′11″Noord, 120°5′59″West. De totale oppervlakte bedraagt 3,5 km² (1,3 mijl²), wat allemaal land is.

Demografie
Volgens de census van 2000 bedroeg de bevolkingsdichtheid 1817,0/km² (4704,4/mijl²) en bedroeg het totale bevolkingsaantal 6306, dat bestond uit:
 20,36% blanken
 0,32% zwarten of Afrikaanse Amerikanen
 0,98% inheemse Amerikanen
 0,40% Aziaten
 0,13% mensen afkomstig van eilanden in de Grote Oceaan
 74,77% andere
 3,04% twee of meer rassen
 98,27% Spaans of Latino
Er waren 1378 gezinnen en 1208 families in Huron. De gemiddelde gezinsgrootte bedroeg 4,45.

Plaatsen in de nabije omgeving
De onderstaande figuur toont nabijgelegen plaatsen in een straal van 32 km rond Huron.

Externe link

Plaats in Fresno County

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


text:
SWIRLING MADNESS
Singapore had a very colourful past when it comes to underground hardcore and metal music. Ever since the advent of Opposition Party and Anti-social Kiosk, legions of hardcore skins and punks had made their marks and impacts upon the local scene. In the heydays of hardocre with cult acts like Stomping Ground and Global Chaos, Swirling Madness came into existence along with Four Sides with their frenzied brutal hardcore anthems, taking the local scene by storm. Formed in 1990, they were originally a quartet Jacque Chong (guitar), Glenn (bass), Rizal (vocals) and Ray (drums). Jacque was a rather famous personality amongst the underground as ironically, a metaller with long hair playing straight-edged music as well as dabbling in local music journalism and media. They had several demos, titled "The Right To Play" and "We Are What We Are", with the latter seeing the departure of Jacque. Musically, they are influenced by Sick of It All, Quicksand, Sodom and Slayer. Their songs are very funny, ranging from drunken "Gimme Some JD" to misogynous "Woman", but their hardcore carried strong messages of positivism. The only negative thing is that the band was rather short-lived.
--sojourner at 11:23 PM


Ideal investment property, perfect for those self managed super funds with a lease to Defence Housing Authority guaranteeing your rent.
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Product prices and availability are accurate as of 2019-04-21 14:12:18 UTC and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on http://www.amazon.com/ at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.
TIG-200DC is a rectifier adopting the most advanced inverter technology. Welding power source can offer stronger, more concentrated and more stable arc. When stick and work piece get short, its response will be quicker. It means that it is easier to design into welding machine with different dynamic characteristics, and it even can be adjusted for specialty to make arc softer or harder. The machine can be for multi-use, and can weld stainless steel, carbon steel, copper and other color metal, and also can use for traditional electric welding. Specification: Processes: TIG (GTAW), STICK, ARC, MMA Input Power: 110/230V/1phase/60Hz Output Range: DC 20-200 Amps Input Current: 37A(110V) & 34.3A(230V) Rated Output: 25V & 28V Duty Cycle: AC 230V/200A at 60% & AC 110V/150A at 60% Dimensions: 16.6 x 7.5 x 11.8 inch Product Weight: 25 lbs. Package Weight: 35 lbs., What's Included: TIG-200DC TIG/Stick/ARC Machine 13 feet 300A Professional TIG Torch and Assembly 10 feet 300A Electrode Holder 10 feet 300A Work Clamp 110V and 230V Transfer Plug 2 pieces of Electrode 1/8 in. 2 pieces of Electrode 3/32 in. 2 pieces of Tungsten 5/64 in. Instruction Manual.
Powerful welder capable of welding up to 1/2" Stainless steel, Alloy steel, Mild steel, Copper, Cast Iron and Chrome. Can not weld Aluminum. The full-size TIG & Stick platform, outperforming the competition on arc quality, voltage control, duty cycle and value. This is optimized to deliver a flawless weld, making spatter and post-weld cleanup almost non-existent. TIG torch & cable 13 feet, Electrode holder & cable 300A 10 feet, Work clamp & cable 300A 10 feet. All machines tested in the USA, Dual Voltage Input means you can plug into any common power supply.