text:
Omar Oakes
Daily Mail owner to triple cost cutting to £50m amid ad revenue slump
Daily Mail and General Trust has kicked off a strategic review of its business amid plans to cut costs by £50m this year.
The owner of the Daily Mail has reported a significant worsening in ad revenue in recent weeks and has today said "headcount reductions" will be made.
To cover the cost of redundancies, DMGT said it will set aside £50m this year, rather than the £15m it was already earmarking for restructuring costs in May.
In a trading update, DMGT said ad revenue at publishing division DMG Media had declined by 10% year on year in the third quarter of 2016.
This compares to ad revenue being down 4% for the year to date on an underlying basis, with a 12% decline in print advertising being partly offset by 17% growth in digital revenue.
But, for the five weeks since 21 August, DMGT said total ad revenue for the business shrunk by 10% on an underlying basis.
The company issued a profit warning in its last trading update after reporting a 13% slump in print ad revenue for the first six months of the year.
The UK national newspaper market has faced a worsening in print ad revenue since the vote to leave the European Union on 23 June, with overall revenues plummeting by 18% in August.
There is now the possibility of rival newspaper groups collaborating to pool their advertising sales.
News UK, Trinity Mirror, Telegraph Media Group, Guardian Media Group, DMGT and Northern & Shell have been in talks since at least May, when Campaign first reported that discussions had begun.
In today's trading update, DMGT said: "Given the challenging market conditions facing certain businesses within the portfolio, reorganisation initiatives are being implemented to protect their profitability.
"These initiatives will create a greater strategic focus and enable more effective decision making across the group, with the aim of generating future benefits and opportunities for long-term growth. The reorganisation initiatives, which include headcount reductions, are expected to result in total cash-related exceptional operating costs in the current financial year of approximately £50m, rather than the £15m previously guided to in May 2016."
Media National Press
Trinity Mirror in talks over Express Newspapers stake
Independent print edition closure brings return to profit, says owner Lebedev
The Times pledges to cut through the noise in new TV ad
Trinity Mirror print ad revenue falls 21% in Q3
Newspaper revenues fall amid talk of joint ad sales
Joint ad sales can help newspapers survive digital storm
DMGT to increase Metro print run as Trinity Mirror returns franchises
Daily Mail publisher reports 4% drop in ad revenue


Another month another progress post. I'm really liking this whole WIPocalypse thing, I have to say.
Three houses done and two remaining. Well on track for a finish this year! Woot!
I finished all the stitching this round. I predict a finish later this month as I don't believe the beading is more than ten hours.
Awesome progress on your WIPs, Annette! Plus, your frame-up looks fantastic ~ congratulations!
Frame is perfect for that – but you probably know that already! I must investigate the haunted house kit. Don't remember seeing that before…. You're making nice progress on your WIPs. Makes me quite jealous.
Very nice. Am I confused? Did you just admit to finishing Plum Pudding?


text:
Home Outdoor Recreation Wyoming Lawmakers Focus on How To Fund $50 Million Outside Recreation Account
Wyoming Lawmakers Focus on How To Fund $50 Million Outside Recreation Account
***For all things Wyoming, sign up for our daily newsletter***
By Renée Jean, business and tourism reporter
A bill to stabilize the Wyoming Office of Outdoor Recreation's funding and create a grant program for the agency was introduced largely intact Tuesday by the Joint Travel, Recreation, Wildlife and Cultural Resources Committee.
There were two applications targeting the grant escrow threshold, with one passing and the other failing.
Rep. Pat Sweeney's first motion, R-Casper, proposed lowering the escrow's initial threshold from $50 million to $25 million.
Sweeney wasn't sure there would be any remaining ARPA money for the trust fund, and he feared $50 million might be too aggressive to fly in the upcoming legislature.
"Does the number have to be that big first?" he asked.
Rep. Sandy Newsome, R-Cody countered that $25 million would not be enough.
"I think the idea was that with that number — Director (Darin) Westby, correct me if I'm wrong — we're funding about half of the outdoor recreation office at that point," she said. "That might be like $500,000?"
Westby, director of Wyoming State Parks and Cultural Resources, confirmed that the trust fund is expected to provide approximately $500,000 per year for operations and approximately $2 million in grants for outdoor recreation opportunities statewide.
Sen. Mike Gierau added that if the trust isn't enough, it's difficult to come back later for more money.
"I don't want to blame you for everything," he said in a nod to the Joint Appropriations Committee, triggering laughter from the small audience gathered in person for the Cheyenne hearing. One shouted, "Please do."
Gierau laughed and readily obeyed.
Do the whole job
"Like I said, I have this argument every time I come home from a session with my wife," he said. "She says take out the trash and I say, 'Can I take out half the garage today and half the trash tomorrow?'
"When the bag hits me in the face, I know I'm home. Because at JAC we used to say that about everything. If you said $50 million, we'd say $25. And I don't know, so I'd like to keep it there."
Regarding ARPA funds related to pandemic relief, Gierau said he's observed actual spending and so far it's been pitifully low.
"I mean really, out of $3 billion, $200 million just walked out the door," he said. "I did not see it. So there is a lot of money floating around here. If we have the will (we can), whatever amount will come out.
"So I'd like to see it stay at 50 and see where we're going, see if we can get funding to work on maybe other streams of funding."
A new credit report is also coming out on Wednesday, Gierau said, which could give the committee more insight.
"We'll find out by 3 p.m. tomorrow afternoon that we have more money than we thought," he said. "We know we have not yet committed that $57 million (in ARPA funds)."
Not all money settled yet
There will also be a multitude of reports over the coming months on how other funds are doing and what has actually been issued and what will be carried over.
"We're going to find out a lot of information by the time this group or its new form reassembles in January," Gierau said. "I think we'll know more then, but I would hate if we left anything on the cutting room floor right now."
Newsome added that $50 million is just the threshold at which funds from the trust will become available.
"Leaving the $50 million where it sits is a good way to go," she said.
Sweeney's measure failed due to a vote.
Strengthened by sales tax
However, the accepted application came from Newsome. She requested the deletion of a paragraph that would take 10% of sales taxes credited to the trust fund until they equaled either $50 million or the calendar reached July 1, 2026, whichever comes first.
Newsome felt that some of the legislation required more work and that it could be detrimental to the bill if left as is.
Senator Bill Landen said the bill would be immediately criticized if it lacked a funding mechanism.
"People will ask, 'Well, how are you going to fund this?'" he said. "And we're going to look at it and say, 'Well, I didn't say anything in the bill, that's up to you guys.'"
Leaving lawmakers to find a funding model is likely a false start, Rep. Jeremy Haroldson said approvingly.
"The funding model is the tricky part," he said. "That's always the tricky part. How do we finance this? How do we implement this reality? Is there a 10% sales tax deduction or you know – sorry I'll take another hit – possibly an occupancy tax. We have to come to that."
Committee members previously confirmed that there is no plan to take money from the lodging tax.
Newsome, influenced by her colleagues, tabled a "friendly amendment" in which she retained the language but changed the percentage that passed from 10% to 5%.
The safe way
Westby told Cowboy State Daily after the meeting the change would mean it would take two years instead of one to reach the trust fund's $50 million threshold. It's not ideal, but this is how "we live to fight another day".
The amended Outdoor Trust Fund legislation was passed by a two-no vote by roll-call. That means it will be among the bills presented by the Joint Committee on Travel, Recreation, Wildlife and Cultural Resources to the next legislature. The two no votes were Sen. Tim Salazar, R-Riverton, and Rep. Mark Jennings, R-Sheridan.
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
The risk of infections with biologic therapies for rheumatoid arthritis
Semin Arthritis Rheum. 2010 Apr;39(5):327-46. doi: 10.1016/j.semarthrit.2008.10.002. Epub 2008 Dec 31.
Daniel E Furst 1
1 University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1670, USA. DEFurst@mednet.ucla.edu
DOI: 10.1016/j.semarthrit.2008.10.002
Objectives: To assess the risk of serious and nonserious bacterial and viral infections associated with the use of biologic therapy (abatacept, adalimumab, anakinra, etanercept, infliximab, and rituximab) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA).
Methods: Information was derived from PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane clinical trials register and database of systematic reviews and relevant congress abstracts up to and including February 2008.
Results: Compared with the general population, patients with RA have a heightened risk of infection, including tuberculosis. Long-term clinical trials and postmarketing studies indicate that anakinra and the tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors are associated with an increased risk of infections versus conventional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs), especially early in the course of treatment. The most common sites of infection are the respiratory tract (including pneumonia), skin and soft tissue, and the urinary tract. The risk of tuberculosis also appears higher with TNF inhibitors (in particular, infliximab) versus DMARDs, although this can be reduced by screening and prophylaxis. TNF inhibitors do not appear to significantly increase the risk of reactivating chronic viral infections. Influenza and pneumococcal vaccinations are generally effective in the face of TNF inhibitors or abatacept. Available data suggest that the risk of infections and serious infections with abatacept and rituximab may be similar to that of the TNF inhibitors. To date, there have been no reports from clinical trials of increased tuberculosis or opportunistic infections with abatacept or rituximab.
Conclusions: All marketed TNF inhibitors for compared to control RA appear to increase the risk of serious and nonserious infections compared with DMARDs. Although suggestive, data for abatacept and rituximab are less definitive and longer periods of patient exposure to these agents are needed before an assessment of their risks can be made.
Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Antirheumatic Agents / therapeutic use
Arthritis, Rheumatoid / drug therapy*
Bacterial Infections / epidemiology
Biological Therapy / adverse effects*
Infections / epidemiology*
Opportunistic Infections / epidemiology
Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha / antagonists & inhibitors
Virus Diseases / epidemiology
Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha


text:
layout: default_post
title: The Abstract Keyword
category: Technical
date: 2013-04-04 4:4:5
description: Learn how to properly use the abstract keyword.

This is a long tutorial so you may have to read everything through a couple times. :)

What is an abstract class or method?

A class that is abstract is one that cannot be instantiated, only subclassed, which means that trying to create an object for an abstract class will generate a compiler error.  An abstract class can contain implementation for its methods as well as variables.

A common interview question is to explain the difference between an interface and an abstract class.  The difference is that an interface cannot contain any implementation of its methods, only signatures.  Classes can also implement as many interfaces as they would like, while only one abstract class can be extended at a time.  One caveat is that static methods or variables will use the abstract class name to be called if they are declared in the abstract class.  For example:

    :::java
    AbstractClass shouldFail = new AbstractClass(); //error
    AbstractClass.staticMethod(); //runs fine

Why You Should Use Them!

One of the main OOP principles is DRY, short for Don't Repeat Yourself.  If you find code that is common in many classes, it probably means you can create a super class.  The benefits of an abstract class compared to a normal super class is that you force implementation into a subclass -- because they cannot be instantiated -- and can provide unimplemented behavior with abstract methods.  If you need to change something in the future that affects all implementations, you have one central place to make that change.

Notation

Here are some examples of how an abstract class and method can be created:

    :::java
    public abstract class Table {
        String name = "table";
        String values;

        public void setTableName(String name) {
            this.name = name;
        }

        public void setValues(String values) {
            this.values = values;
        }

        public JSONObject toJSON() {
            return new JSONObject(values);
        }

        public abstract void displayTable();
    }

    public class SpecificTable extends Table {
        public void displayTable() {
            System.out.println("Specific " + name);
        }
    }

    public class GeneralTable extends Table {
        public void displayTable() {
            System.out.println("General " + name);
        }
    }

As you can see, the method displayTable() is an abstract method.  It cannot be created with any implementation and can only be declared within an abstract class, or else you will run into compile issues.

Now lets try running that with this code:

    :::java
    SpecificTable specific = new SpecificTable();
    GeneralTable general = new GeneralTable();
    specific.displayTable();
    general.displayTable();
    specific.setTableName("tables"); //change the name
    specific.displayTable();

This will output the following:

    :::java
    Specific table
    General table
    Specific tables

In this example, SpecificTable and GeneralTable are the subclass implementations of Table.  Each has a different implementation of the displayTable() method, and you can see that they both have some methods in common such as setTableName().

Enum trick

Another good thing to know is that an Enum can also contain abstract methods.  If you declare an abstract method in an Enum, then each value will have to implement that method like this:

    :::java
    public enum Algorithm {
        SRTF {
            public String getName() {return "Shortest run-time first";}
        },
        FCFS {
            public String getName() {return "First come first serve";}
        },
        RR {
            public String getName() {return "Round robin";}
        };
        public abstract String getName();
    }

That code can then be called like so:

    :::java
    Algorithm fcfs = Algorithm.FCFS;
    String name = fcfs.getName();

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
The 21st Show
Health concerns set off gas stove debate
Produced by Jose Zepeda
AP Photo/Thomas Kienzle
According to reporting by Bloomberg News last week, the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commision was looking at a ban on gas stoves, amid rising concerns over indoor air pollutants emitted by these gas appliances. But the Wednesday following Bloomberg's reporting, the White House came out with a statement saying "The President does not support banning gas stoves — and the Consumer Product Safety Commission, which is independent, is not banning gas stoves."
It set the nation on a frenzy, on what could very well be another so-called "culture war." Many online defended their use of the gas stove, saying it's the only way to cook. Others said it's time to move on and the health concerns outweigh the cooking benefits.
To discuss the debate and the underlying health concerns, we were joined by an assistant professor of applied health science, the executive director of the Illinois Petroleum Resources Board, and the owner of an Illinois culinary school.
Sheena Martenies
Assistant Professor, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign College of Applied Health Sciences Department of Kinesiology and Community Health
Seth Whitehead
Executive Director, Illinois Petroleum Resources Board
Kara Fanelli
Owner and Executive Chef, Farmhouse Academy
Prepared for web by Owen Henderson
Help shape our coverage on The 21st by joining our texting group and answering weekly questions. To join, text "TALK" to 217-803-0730 or sign up with your phone number below:
sheena martinies


DeanHuff is unable to determine if a song has rights reserved, because all the songs have been added automatically by our crawler that indexes music.
all mp3 files are hosted by third party servers, not by DeanHuff, we only provide links to that servers.
all videos are hosted by youtube.com, not by DeanHuff.
DeanHuff is not responsible for the actions you take.


text:
'use strict';

const mwUtil = require('../lib/mwUtil');
const HyperSwitch = require('hyperswitch');
const URI = HyperSwitch.URI;

const spec = HyperSwitch.utils.loadSpec(`${__dirname}/related.yaml`);

class Related {
    constructor(options) {
        this._options = options;
    }

    getPages(hyper, req) {
        const rp = req.params;

        return hyper.post({
            uri: new URI([rp.domain, 'sys', 'action', 'query']),
            body: {
                format: 'json',
                generator: 'search',
                gsrsearch: `morelike:${rp.title}`,
                gsrnamespace: 0,
                gsrwhat: 'text',
                gsrinfo: '',
                gsrprop: 'redirecttitle',
                gsrlimit: 20
            }
        })
        .then((res) => {
            delete res.body.next;

            // Step 1: Normalize and convert titles to use $merge
            res.body.items.forEach((item) => {
                // We can avoid using the full-blown title normalisation here because
                // the titles come from MW API and they're already normalised except
                // they use spaces instead of underscores.
                item.$merge = [ new URI([rp.domain, 'v1', 'page',
                    'summary', item.title.replace(/ /g, '_')]) ];
                delete item.title;
            });

            // Rename `items` to `pages`
            res.body.pages = res.body.items;
            delete res.body.items;

            // Step 2: Hydrate response as always.
            return mwUtil.hydrateResponse(res, (uri) => mwUtil.fetchSummary(hyper, uri));
        });
    }
}

module.exports = (options) => {
    const relatedModule = new Related(options);

    return {
        spec,
        operations: {
            getRelatedPages: relatedModule.getPages.bind(relatedModule)
        }
    };
};


text:
import thunkMiddleware from 'redux-thunk'
import {compose, createStore, applyMiddleware} from 'redux'
import imdiReducers from '../../reducers'
import analyticsMiddleware from './analyticsMiddleware'
import {logCustomPageView, logCustomEvent} from '../googleTagManager'

import {
  NAVIGATE,
  TRACK_EVENT,
  OPEN_CARD
} from '../../actions/ActionTypes'

const middlewares = [
  applyMiddleware(thunkMiddleware),

  applyMiddleware(analyticsMiddleware((action, state) => {
    if (action.type == NAVIGATE) {
      logCustomPageView(action, state)
    }
    if (action.type == OPEN_CARD || action.type.startsWith(TRACK_EVENT)) {
      logCustomEvent(action, state)
    }
  })),

  // Redux devToolsExtension
  window.devToolsExtension ? window.devToolsExtension() : func => func
].filter(Boolean)

const createStoreWithMiddlewares = compose(...middlewares)(createStore)

export default function createImdiAppStore(initialState = {}) {
  return createStoreWithMiddlewares(imdiReducers, initialState)
}


text:
Crazy economic models
**UPDATED AT END OF POST**
In a recent post I commented on the "fetish of rationality" present in a great deal of mathematical economic theory. Agents in the theories are often assumed to have super-human reasoning abilities and to determine their behaviour and expectations solely through completely rational calculation. In comments, Relja suggested that maybe I'd gone too far and that economists version of rationality isn't all that extreme:
I think critiques like this about rationality in economics miss the point. The rationality assumed in economics is concerned with general trends; generally people pursue pleasure, not pain (according to their own utility functions), they prefer more money to less (an expanded budget constraint leaves them on a higher indifference curve, thus better off), they have consistent preferences (when they're in the mood for chocolate, they're not going to choose vanilla). Correspondingly, firms have the goal of profit maximization - they produce products that somebody will want to buy or they go out of business. Taking the rationality assumption to its "umpteenth" iteration is really quite irrational in itself. A consumer knows that spending 6 years to calculate the mathematically optimal choice of ice-cream is irrational. An economist accordingly knows the same thing. And although assumptions are required for modelling economic scenarios (micro or macro), I seriously doubt that any serious economist would make assumptions that infer such irrationality. :).
I think Relja expressed a well-balanced perspective, has learned some economics in detail, and has taken away from it some conclusions that are, all in all, pretty sound. Indeed, people are goal oriented, don't (usually) prefer pain, and businesses do try to make profits (although whether they try to 'maximize' is an open question). If economists were really just following these reasonable ideas, I would have no problem.
But I also think the problem is worse than Relja may realize. The use of rationality assumptions is more extreme than this, and also decisive in some of the most important areas of economic theory, especially in macroeconomics. A few days ago, John Kay offered this very long and critical essay on the form of modern economic theory. It's worth a read all the way through, but in essence, Kay argues that economics is excessively based on logical deduction of theories from a set of axioms, one of which (usually) is the complete rationality of economic agents:
Rigour and consistency are the two most powerful words in economics today.... They have undeniable virtues, but for economists they have particular interpretations. Consistency means that any statement about the world must be made in the light of a comprehensive descriptive theory of the world. Rigour means that the only valid claims are logical deductions from specified assumptions. Consistency is therefore an invitation to ideology, rigour an invitation to mathematics. This curious combination of ideology and mathematics is the hallmark of what is often called 'freshwater economics' – the name reflecting the proximity of Chicago, and other centres such as Minneapolis and Rochester, to the Great Lakes.
Consistency and rigour are features of a deductive approach, which draws conclusions from a group of axioms – and whose empirical relevance depends entirely on the universal validity of the axioms.
Kay isn't quite as explicit as he might have been, but economist Michael Woodford, in a comment on Kay's argument, goes further in spelling out what Key finds most objectionable -- the so-called rational expectations framework, originally proposed by Robert Lucas, which forms the foundations of today's DGSE (dynamic stochastic equilibrium models). A core assumption of such models is that all individuals in the economy have rational expectations about the future, and that such expectations affect their current behaviour.
Now, if this meant something like Relja's comment suggests it might -- that people are simply forward looking, as we know they are -- this would be fine. But it's not. The form this assumption ultimately takes in these models is to assume that everyone in the economy has fully rational expectations, in that they form their expectations in accordance with the conceivably best and most accurate economic models, even if solving those models might require considerable mathematics and computation (and knowledge of everyones' expectations). As Woodford puts it in his comment,
It has been standard for at least the past three decades to use models in which not only does the model give a complete description of a hypothetical world, and not only is this description one in which outcomes follow from rational behavior on the part of the decision makers in the model, but the decision makers in the model are assumed to understand the world in exactly the way it is represented in the model. More precisely, in making predictions about the consequences of their actions (a necessary component of an accounting for their behavior in terms of rational choice), they are assumed to make exactly the predictions that the model implies are correct (conditional on the information available to them in their personal situation).
This postulate of "rational expectations," as it is commonly though rather misleadingly known, is the crucial theoretical assumption behind such doctrines as "efficient markets" in asset pricing theory and "Ricardian equivalence" in macroeconomics.
It is precisely here that modern economics takes the assumption of rationality much too far merely for the sake of mathematical and theoretical rigour. Do economists really believe people form their expectations in this way? It's hard to imagine they could as the live the rest of their lives with people who do not do this. But the important question isn't what they really believe but on what do they base their theories which then get used by governments in policy making? Sadly, these unrealistic assumptions remain in the key models. But these assumptions really have zero plausibility. Woodford again,
[The rational expectations assumption] is often presented as if it were a simple consequence of an aspiration to internal consistency in one's model and/or explanation of people's choices in terms of individual rationality, but in fact it is not a necessary implication of these methodological commitments. It does not follow from the fact that one believes in the validity of one's own model and that one believes that people can be assumed to make rational choices that they must be assumed to make the choices that would be seen to be correct by someone who (like the economist) believes in the validity of the predictions of that model. Still less would it follow, if the economist herself accepts the necessity of entertaining the possibility of a variety of possible models, that the only models that she should consider are ones -- in each of which everyone in the economy is assumed to understand the correctness of that particular model, -- rather than entertaining beliefs that might (for example) be consistent with one of the other models in the set that she herself regards as possibly correct.
This is the sense in which hyper-rationality really does enter into economic theories. It's still pervasive, and still indefensible. It would be infinitely preferable if macro-economists such as Lucas and his followers (one of whom, Thomas Sargent, was perversely and outrageously just awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel).
Blogger sometimes doesn't seem to register comments. Email alerted me to a sharp criticism by ivansml of some of the points I made, but the comment isn't, at least for my browser, yet showing up. Just so it doesn't get lost, ivansml said:
Every assumption is false when understood literally, including rational expectations. The important thing is whether people behave as if they had rational expectations - and answer to that will fortunately depend on particular model and data, not on emotional arguments and expressive vocabulary.
By the way, if you reject RE but accept that expectations matter and should be forward-looking, how do you actually propose to model them? One possible alternative is to have agents who estimate laws of motion from past data and continously update their estimates, which is something that macroeconomists have actually investigated before. And guess what - this process will often converge to rational expectations equilibrium.
Finally, the comment about Nobel Prize (yeah, it's not real Nobel, whatever) for Sargent is a sign of ignorance. Sargent has published a lot on generalizations or relaxations of RE, including the learning literature mentioned above, literature on robustness (where agents distrust their model and choose actions which are robust to model misspecifications) and even agent-based models. In addition to that, the prize citation focuses on his empirical contributions (i.e. testing theories against data). This does not seem like someone who is religiously devoted to "hyper-rationality" and ideology.
To points in response:
1. Yes, the point is precisely to include expectations but to model their formation in some more behaviourally realistic way, through learning algorithms as suggested. I am aware of such work and think it is very important. Indeed, the latter portion of this post from earlier this year looked precisely at this and considered a recent review of work in this area by Cars Hommes and others. The idea is not to assume that everyone forms their expectations identically, that learning is important, that their may be systematic biases and so on. As ivansml notes, there are circumstances in which the model may settle into a rational expectations equilibrium. But there are also many in which it does not. My hunch -- not backed by any evidence that I can point to readily -- is that the rational expectations equilibrium will be increasingly unlikely as the decisions faced by agents in the model become increasingly complex. Very possibly the system won't settle into any equilibrium at all.
But I think ivansml for pointing this out. It is certainly the case that expectations matter, and these should be brought into theory in some plausible and convincing way. Just to finish on this point, this is a quote from the Hommes review article, suggesting that the RE equilibrium doesn't come up very often:
Learning to forecast experiments are tailor-made to test the expectations hypothesis, with all other model assumptions computerized and under control of the experimenter. Different types of aggregate behavior have been observed in different market settings. To our best knowledge, no homogeneous expectations model [rational or irrational] fits the experimental data across different market settings. Quick convergence to the RE-benchmark only occurs in stable (i.e. stable under naive expectations) cobweb markets with negative expectations feedback, as in Muth's (1961) seminal rational expectations paper. In all other market settings persistent deviations from the RE fundamental benchmark seem to be the rule rather than the exception.
2. On his second point about Thomas Sargent, I plead guilty. ivansml is right -- his work is not as one dimensional as my comments made it seem. Indeed, I had been looking into his work over the past weekend for different reasons and had noticed that his work has been fairly wide ranging, and he does deserve credit for trying to relax RE assumptions. (Although he did seem a little snide in one interview I read, suggesting that mainstream macro-economists were not at all surprised by the recent financial crisis.)
So thanks also ivansml for setting me straight. I've changed the offending text above.
Posted by Mark Buchanan at 3:27 PM
Labels: rational expectations, rationality, scientism
Mark October 12, 2011 at 2:43 AM
I am enjoying reading some of the work of Martin Shubik - on one level, a pure mathematical economist - yet also one who is affiliated to SFI and has a good grasp of these issues.
Here's a taster:
http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cp/p09b/p0967.pdf
Relja October 14, 2011 at 12:45 PM
Hi Mr. Buchanan,
Thanks for going a bit deeper in regards to the RE assumptions. I'm also an economist, but I'll admit I'm not involved with academic economics, and haven't been for a number of years now. It's just "real-world economics" that I'm working with these days; Regulatory Impact Statements, Cost-Benefit Analyses, Advice on changes in government and private sector policy, etc. And it is mostly on the micro level. So I'm not a quantitative macro-economist. I do use models in my work, but the assumptions used therein are not associated with the kinds of assumptions inferred in your post - i.e. the extreme rationality, consistency and complete information of market participants. We (my firm) do use a lot of data to back up claims. Clients are quite happy with our reports being as clear and as simple as possible - in the sense that nobody wants to go through a thesis-type document. We do use the economics nomenclature and jargon, however every report needs to be "readable" and make sense to a person who isn't necessarily an economist. This is what I think is the essence of good economics in the real-world. It must, both explicitly and implicitly, MAKE SENSE. (I don't like using caps like that, sorry, it's just that I can't italicize under this format). The point of modelling (and, indeed, econometrics as a whole) is to back up rational claims that MAKE SENSE. Using modelling to back up rational claims that don't make sense is a largely pointless theoretical exercise when it comes to real-world policy analysis (e.g. it may be "rational" to take 6 years to choose the optimal flavour of ice-cream, however this just does not MAKE SENSE in the context of the real world). I whole-heartedly agree with you that this extreme rationality assumption needs to be adjusted, it needs to be re-thought. Especially where it is used for real-world policy analysis! If I were to come to a client with a completed report along with the caveat that "oh, all of our data and modelling work is based on a series of assumptions that implicitly state that your entire market will most likely lay dormant for the following 6 years, while consumers thoroughly optimize their decision of what product to buy and then after 6 years there MAY be a rather large cash inflow to you IF said consumers indeed choose your product", I'd be out of a job. Good economics in the real-world is a different kettle of fish. Of course, there's bad economics, and there are bad economists, just like there are bad auto-mechanics, lawyers, chemists, etc. Poor assumptions contribute to poor analysis. Taking a step back and asking oneself, "What is the point of my analysis? Does it MAKE SENSE?" is vital. It's such a basic thing to do, but under a mountain of data and models and assumptions this can be a difficult thing. Of course, we can't OVER-simplify things – that's just as pointless but on the other end of the spectrum. Saying something like "consumers will eventually get hungry and will therefore buy some of kind food, so whether you produce ice-cream or 5-star gourmet restaurant meals is mostly irrelevant" makes just as little sense in the real-world context as does a correspondingly stringent claim inferring extreme rationality. There's a balance required. Of course, the corresponding simplicity/complexity limits I've alluded to are too broad, but I think they illustrate the point that a happy medium is required. So, in a short sentence: data and modeling are analytical supplements, and should be thought-of as such.
Relja.
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I seem to have strained my wrists, so I'm taking a crochet break (boo) and continuing with some sewing (yay!). Following on from my last sewing post, I've attempted some leggings.
For leggings I often have the problem that they aren't long enough. I also really don't like it when leggings have a lot of gathering going on at the waist because it can show through when wearing with a tighter fitting top (and it's unnecessary bulk on the tummy, no one wants that!).
I'm not new to sewing but I do need to develop my skills so I'm trying to stretch myself with just one or two new skills each time I make something. Usually I make skirts, which really only need to fit at the waist, so they aren't too hard to get right. These leggings required fitting to my complete lower half – so that's the new skill this time around.
I used the method on So Sew Easy to draft my own pattern to my measurements. This worked fine and took me about an hour (including taping together a zillion sheets of paper). I used a 0.95 factor for negative ease but could have gone to 0.9 in retrospect.
For the fabric I ordered the same as I used for my black maxi skirt, which was better quality than I expected for the price and definitely good for leggings. However I think the grey version is not quite as thick though it does the job fine.
Sewing my own leggings – no gathering at the waist!
The leggings sewed up nice and fast but definitely came out too long by about 2-3". I think maybe because the pattern seems to assume that the fabric won't stretch in the vertical direction but mine does. Not a problem because I can shorten them (this never happens to me!!). They also need the seam at the knee taking in, I suspect because the extra length means the knee point is a bit too low, making them a bit baggy at the knee.
I ended up struggling to re-hem the ankles. I had originally hemmed them before sewing the leg seam because I thought it would be less fiddly. Re-hemming them meant stretching the leg over the free arm of my machine and they really did only just fit, in fact I think the fabric got overstretched as a result so the ankles are still a bit loose.
When I make these again I will take out an inch between the knee and thigh, and also an inch between the knee and ankle on my pattern and hopefully they will be a perfect fit first time!
Have you had success with self-drafted patterns? Let me know your tips!
These look awesome! I'm going to give the pattern a try.
When sewing tight circles, I sew from the inside, rather than looping over the free arm. Hard to describe, but using a bracelet as an analogy, it would be standing up and I sew on the bottom on the inside.
Thanks and nice tip! However I had to sew from the front as I was using my double needle to get two rows of straight stitching but with stretch. It doesn't look the same from the back. In hindsight I could just have used the zigzag stitch and gone for the neater fit, I will remember the tip if it happens again! Hopefully next time it won't be a problem though!
I hope your wrists feel better soon so you can get back to the crochet.


text:
Sermon Quotes: "Quarrels and Fights"
June 7, 2016 by C.J. Mahaney
Category: Sunday Sermon Quotes | C.J. Mahaney, Sunday Sermon, Quotes, James 4
"One of the joys of biblical ministry comes when you are able to turn on the lights in another person's dark room. People usually don't see their desires and lusts. Souls are cured as the ignorant and self-deceived are disturbed by the light of God's analytic gaze and then comforted by the love that shed substitutionary blood to purchase the inexpressible gift. I have yet to meet a couple locked in hostility (and the accompanying fear, self-pity, hurt, self-righteousness) who really understood and reckoned with their motives. James 4:1-3 teaches that cravings underlie conflicts. Why do you fight? It's not 'because my wife/husband…' it's because of something about you. Couples who see what rules them--cravings for affection, attention, power, vindication, control, comfort, a hassle free life--can repent and find God's grace made real to them, and then learn how to make peace." David Powlison
"With penetrating insight James provides us with a powerful analysis of human conflict. Verbal argument, private violence, or national conflict--the cause of them all can be traced back to the wrongful lust to want more than we have, to be envious of and covet what others have, whether it be their position or their possessions." Doug Moo
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text:
News Business & Policy
Google's London HQ Boasts a Rooftop Garden for the Ages
Matt Hickman
Matt Hickman is an associate editor at The Architect's Newspaper. His writing has been featured in Curbed, Apartment Therapy, URBAN-X, and more.
Updated September 6, 2019
Plans for Google's new London headquarters include a ridiculously lush rooftop garden, drawing comparisons to London's failed Garden Bridge project. . (Photo: Google)
Remember that enchanting, ridiculously lush bridge-park that was supposed to be built over the River Thames but instead was met with massive backlash — much of it well-deserved — before it fizzled out and was ultimately scrapped by London Mayor Sadiq Kahn?
Well, London's doomed Garden Bridge has been reborn — kind of, sort of — in the form of Google's futuristic, flora-bedecked new headquarters in the British capital city. Or at least that's what some cheeky journalists are suggesting. The two projects — the plant-topped bridge and the plant-topped corporate campus — do share a common designer in the form of Thomas Heatherwick, after all.
Envisioned as sleek skyscraper leisurely lying on its side near Regent's Canal in Central London's so-called Knowledge Quarter, this self-described "groundscraper" will be, at 300 meters (984 feet) long, longer than London's tallest building, the Shard, is tall.
Judging from the first batch of design renderings released by Google, the gently inclining rooftop of the company's new U.K. corporate compound — the first building built for and fully owned by the Silicon Valley-based tech behemoth outside of the United States — will be almost entirely covered in vegetation. That's 300 meters of dedicated green space, just on the roof.
That being said, it would be unfair to refer to what's going on atop this sloping, low-slung and, in the words of Guardian architecture critic Oliver Wainwright, "surprisingly sober," structure as a simple garden. It's more of a full-on multipurpose urban park, complete with an amphitheater and 200-meter "trim track" for jogs and brisk strolls set against a variety of different landscaped environments — wildflower meadows, grassy fields, ornamental ponds and well-shaded thickets — that provide upwards of 4,000 Google workers with "the opportunity to exercise, meet or engage, away from the office floors."
Like with Amazon's plant-stuffed spheres in downtown Seattle, all this foliage isn't just an attractive place to unwind and socialize. It also provides the perfect cover to hide from one's co-workers on days when you just aren't feeling it.
You haven't seen Marcus have you?
Have you looked for him in the woodlands up on the roof? He likes to hide up there.
Google's rooftop park offers plenty of space for employees to spread out during lunch ... and then some. (Photo: Google)
The elaborate park topping Google's planned London HQ offers plenty of space for employees to spread out during their lunch breaks ... and then some. (Rendering: Google)
The one small portion of the roof that isn't dedicated to employee-only green space will be home to a photovoltaic array with an annual output of 19,800 kilowatt-hours. There are plans for a rainwater harvesting system up top, too.
An abundance of employee-pleasing amenities continue inside the 1 million-square-foot office building (Google will claim roughly 65 percent of it and presumably rent the rest of the space out to like-minded firms). The plans call for a lap pool, gym, massage suites, nap pods and massive motorized blinds that swing into action on those very rare London days when the sunshine pouring into the interior becomes just a bit too much. Dominated by healthy, natural materials and greenery, the workspace itself is open and permeated by natural light; a single central staircase links the various levels of the structure, which rises from seven stories to 11 stories at its tallest. The ground floor of the super-long building will be lined with open-to-the-public shops and eateries.
Google's lanky London space is saddled up directly next to King's Cross railway station. (Photo: Google)
A commuters dream: Google's lanky Central London space is saddled up directly next to bustling King's Cross railway station. (Rendering: Google)
What's more, the complex couldn't be more convenient to public transportation as King's Cross rail station — one of the busiest rail hubs in the U.K. — and beneath that, the St. Pancras Underground station, is quite literally just a stone's throw away. The design also calls for a sizable bicycle parking facility with room for 686 bikes — and just four parking spots for cars.
"The area is a fascinating collision of diverse building types and spaces and I can't help but love this mix of massive railway stations, roads, canals and other infrastructure all layered up into the most connected point in London," says Thomas Heatherwick in a press statement. "Influenced by these surroundings, we have treated this new building for Google like a piece of infrastructure too, made from a family of interchangeable elements which ensure that the building and its workspace will stay flexible for years to come."
Heatherwick isn't the only big name attached to Google's plant-clad London groundscraper, which, if given the green light by the local council will commence construction in 2018. Just like Google's flashy new mothership in Mountain View, California, the London project is a joint effort between Heatherwick Studio and BIG, the eponymous firm of unfailingly audacious Danish architect Bjarke Ingels.
Google's new London compound - the first building to be fully owned and built for the tech giant outside of the U.S. - will include a lovely public park alongside Regent's Canal. (Photo: Google)
Google's new London compound — the first building to be fully owned and built for the tech giant outside of the U.S. — is flanked by Regent's Canal. (Rendering: Google)
Aside from achieving a certain infamy with the ill-fated Garden Bridge, King's Cross-based Heatherwick is behind another controversy-mired park project: Manhattan's Pier55, an arts-centric offshore oasis backed by the husband-wife team of media magnate Barry Diller and fashion icon Diane von Furstenberg that would float in the Hudson River. He's also responsible for Vessel, a monumental climbable public artwork — a $150 million "stairway to nowhere" — that's currently being assembled just north of the stalled Pier55 site at Hudson Yards.
Back home across the pond, Heatherwork has designed everything from Olympic cauldrons, double-decker buses and a nature-infused cancer care center that harnesses the "therapeutic nature of plants."
Charismatic and hyper-prolific Ingels — the subject of an excellent new documentary film — is a bit harder to keep up with. Recently commissioned BIG projects include a ying- and yang-shaped panda house at the Copenhagen Zoo and an uncommonly beautiful mineral water bottling plant in Lombardy, Italy. One of his most hotly anticipated projects, Lego House in Billund, Denmark, is due to open in September while his inaugural NYC building, a pyramid-shaped residential "courtscraper" named VIA 57 West, was completed last fall.
Interior rendering of Google's London HQ. (Photo: Google)
In addition to the new HQ, Google will retain two other nearby buildings in London's Knowledge Quarter, home to the British Library, the Alan Turing Institute, the Royal College of Physicians and other institutions. (Rendering: Google)
Back in London, many critics have noted that — bonkers rooftop park and skyscraper-esque length, aside — the £1 billion Google-plex is a relatively restrained effort considering the involvement of Ingels and Heatherwick, two young architects whose respective oeuvres can easily be described as daring, unorthodox, impossible and outright bananas. The Guardian's Oliver Wainwright notes that the design has been toned down considerably from an earlier plan that was conceived by another architecture firm and ultimately scrapped by Google. (Ingels and Heatherwick were recruited by Google to take on the London project in 2015.)
"Eschewing the tech campus trend for increasingly wacky architecture, it appears Google may be trying to grow up," writes Wainwright.
I'm a fan — it's practical, green and not too aggressively weird, which it easily could have been. I'm also instantly reminded of one of my favorite buildings, the meadow-topped former corporate campus of timber product giant Weyerhaeuser in Federal Way, Washington. Designed by SOM in the early 1970s, this lushly landscaped edifice revolutionized the concept of open office design and has been referred to over the years as a "skyscraper on its side."
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The Goldeneye Gewürztraminer is derived from a one-acre block of our Confluence Vineyard. The Gewürztraminer is night harvested and whole cluster pressed before first light to preserve the inherent freshness of the varietal. The juice is fermented in stainless steel for up to 45 days at 45 to 50 degrees which maintains the aromatic character so important to Gewürztraminer. The Gewürztraminer is bottled shortly after completing fermentation and is best served cold as a wonderful accompaniment to a variety of foods.
This beautifully aromatic wine begins with enticing layers of ginger spice and rose petal. The high-tone spice elements are echoed on the palate, where they mingle with layers of lychee and honeysuckle. Throughout it all, a backbone of natural acidity adds poise and definition to the graceful flavors, while carrying the wine to a bright, focused finish.
The 2017 season began with plentiful rains that resulted in healthy vines and an excellent crop. After ideal temperate weather throughout the summer, a significant September heat spell ushered in a brisk start to harvest. A return to normal temperatures, combined with thoughtful irrigation, slowed the pace and allowed us to continue picking each site at optimal levels of ripeness. The grapes arrived at our winery in exceptional condition, resulting in complex wines that embody the rustic elegance of great Anderson Valley winemaking.


text:
News: AMRC unveil advanced steel foundry
The first custom-built steel foundry to be commissioned in the UK since the early 1980's has been unveiled on the Advanced Manufacturing Park (AMP) in Rotherham.
AMRC Castings, part of the University of Sheffield's Advanced Manufacturing Research Centre (AMRC) with Boeing, has invested £600,000 to allow engineers to conduct innovative research and product development projects in collaboration with its industrial partners for the benefit of industry sectors in which castings are, or could be used in the future.
Castings Technology International (Cti) was acquired by the AMRC in 2014. Since then, it has been split into two organisations; AMRC Castings, which focuses on research and development, and Cti Ltd, which carries out commercial work.
AMRC Castings develops new castings technologies and provides design and manufacturing consultancy services for aerospace and other high-value manufacturing sectors.
The new advanced steels casting facility consists of two Inductotherm air melting induction furnaces, with a combined 2.8 tonne melt capacity, able to produce cast parts with a finished weight of up to 1,300kg.
Ryan Longden, operations manager at AMRC Castings, said: "Keeping the UK at the forefront of steel castings technology is the only way to ensure the capability survives. It's our aim to support steel foundries at home in the UK and around the world and castings users wanting to push the boundaries of current castings processes.
"Using the new facility alongside our MEGAshell Process allows us to put our technical expertise to full use and conduct pioneering research for the energy sector into producing cast steel components that are more cost and time effective to manufacture."
MEGAshell uses expendable polystyrene patterns which can be machined out of a single block or built up from machined polystyrene parts. Replacing traditional sand moulds, castings can be manufactured to the integrity normally associated with the lost wax process, but of a size and weight far beyond the capability of a process with a pedigree of manufacturing civil aero-engine blades and vanes.
Combined with the new advanced steels casting facility, AMRC Castings is the only UK organisation able to produce a ceramic shell big enough for such research projects, producing specialist cast components from material grade duplex 4A steel in a one-piece ceramic mould.
The new foundry facility will also enable the advance of research into the composition of materials. Development programmes such as these will provide a knowledge bank of process and materials data, leading to the development of new material grades and optimised material chemistries for advanced castings.
Ryan added: "The new AMRC Castings advanced steels casting facility allows us to develop and demonstrate innovative new castings techniques, further enhancing the integrity and improving the material properties of castings.
"This kind of research will help the AMRC build up the technical knowledge and expertise needed to keep UK castings technology and manufacturers competitive within global markets."
A £7m government grant as part of the Aerospace Growth Partnership is funding a new facility at Cti. The 13,000 sq ft extension will provide accommodation for new process equipment including a Titanium VAR Skull Melting Furnace, with associated infrastructure and external works.
AMRC website
Images: AMRC
Labels: Advanced Manufacturing Park, Advanced Manufacturing Research Centre, aerospace, Research, Rotherham, specialist steel


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Historic Racing Miniatures Complete replacement engine kit for Fujimi's 250 GTO kit. See pictures for details. Resin 1/24th scale Built up model & photos are the work of Jason Park. Jason has added wiring, plumbing and topped it off with 'KA Models' machined velocity stacks. Jason's beautiful motor is shown in his Fujimi 250 GTO build.


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