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the janus observer
delivering cold doses of reality… semi-regularly
Tag: Interest Rates
Headwinds to Rising Interest Rates
FT – Why the global shortage of safe assets is getting worse – Tommy Stubbington 11/18/19
Government bonds issued by big developed economies have surged in price this year — pushing yields to record lows. A key reason is that these "safe assets" are in short supply.
A wide variety of investors and corporations prize the highest-quality government bonds for their cash-like qualities — and the near certainty of getting their money back.
According to research by Oxford Economics, the resultant global shortage of these safe assets is going to get worse. The consultancy calculates that the supply of these assets will grow by $1.7tn annually over the coming five years — with a $1.2tn issuance of bonds to fund the US budget deficit the largest driver. But demand for these assets is estimated to grow more rapidly, creating a $400bn annual shortfall and indicating that government bond yields are set to remain low.
"The largest buyers are relatively price-insensitive and will continue to accept low returns in exchange for safety," said Michiel Tukker, global macro strategist at Oxford Economics.
Mr Tukker said the extra demand would come as the global economy grew more quickly than the supply of safe assets. Governments around the world could alleviate the shortage by issuing more debt, he said. Indeed, higher borrowing has recently moved towards the top of the political agenda in the UK, the US and even the eurozone.
However, a big shift towards looser fiscal policy around the world is unlikely, unless there is an economic downturn, Mr Tukker thinks. In that case, he said, central banks would be likely to respond by ramping up their own purchases of safe assets — adding to demand.
Filed under: Government Debt, Interest Rates, Markets
Low Interest Rates Here to Stay…
Bloomberg – Central Banks Can't Create Negative Rates by Themselves – Jim Bianco 10/8/19
It's been a decade since the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and yet here we are in a world where the highest government bond yield starts with the number "2." Among the world's major developed economies, only the English speaking countries – the U.S., U.K., Canada, New Zealand and Australia – still have monetary policy rates above zero. But there is more to low yields than monetary policy rates, and those factors are likely to stay in place for an extended period.
The following table shows the highest interest rates culled from the 20 largest developed countries from the policy rate to the 30-year bond. Over 200 interest rates were considered and the only one to yield above 2% is the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond at 2.04%. Never has the highest yield among these countries been so low.
Core inflation has been low and stable for 15 years and shows no signs of a secular acceleration anytime soon. Low rates of inflation mean interest rates should be in the low single digits. Without a serious return of developed world inflation, which has not been the case for almost 25 years, gone are the days of 4% to 6% yields without a crisis, like the one in Europe's government debt market around 2012.
Next is the global savings glut, a phrase coined by former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke in 2005. As populations age, they have a propensity to save. This is shown by the following chart from the International Monetary Fund. Note that prior to 2005, the global saving rate was never above 24.5%. Since then, it's only been lower during the panic of 2009. The rate equaled its record high of 26.7% in 2018. This works out to roughly $21 trillion saved every year. Since many seek to match the investments in their savings to their life expectancies, they tend buy bonds.
The savings glut is leading to massive bond buying that is resulting in yields dropping below the inflation rate nearly everywhere in the developed world.
The two factors above alone should be enough to make investors understand that the fair value for developed world yields now start with a "1" or "0," but two other factors are driving yields even lower, and into negative territory.
One is the global flight-to-quality. As the world economy slows, the natural reaction is to allocate into safe fixed-income securities. Look no further than last week's reaction to the poor manufacturing data in the U.S. Bonds rallied and equities slid. Yes, flight-to-quality is a cyclical factor that is present when the concern is about a slowing world economy. So, expect this factor to come and go over time. Right now, though, it is "coming." This flight-to-quality has created to much demand for bonds that the amount of negative yielding debt increased by $8 trillion this year to $14 trillion.
Yes, central banks might reverse from their negative interest-rate policies, but that only means developed world rates, without a crisis, will only go up to 1% or maybe 2%. Every future downturn will add back in flight-to-quality buying and negative central bank rates, and down market rates will go again to zero or even lower.
The secular outlook has changed and those applying the thinking from previous economic cycles about inflation and real yields conclude these low yields represent a bubble. They are not considering aging populations that are buying bonds and pushing yields below inflation rates driven lower by advances in technology. Add aggressive central banks willing to take monetary policy rates into negative territory and the standard rules that say bubble have not worked for almost a decade. Don't expect this to change anytime soon.
The most commonly asked question from U.S. investors is where they can find yield. Unfortunately, for those still hoping for a previous cycle to return, we have bad news, you have it now at 1%. Embrace it and be lucky U.S. yields are not negative – yet.
Bloomberg – Even Greece Is Getting Paid to Borrow Money in Debt Markets – Michael Hunter 10/8/19
Investors are now paying for the privilege of lending it cash. A sale of 487.5 million euros ($535 million) of 13-week bills Wednesday drew a yield of minus 0.02%. Greece joins the likes of Ireland, Italy and Spain benefitting from the European Central Bank's supportive monetary policy and deepening fears of a global recession.
Filed under: Central Banks, Greece, Interest Rates
Global Interest Rate Table and Human Migrations
WSJ – Daily Shot: Developed World Interest Rate by Term 9/5/19
WSJ – Daily Shot: Statista – World's Biggest Human Migrations 9/5/19
Filed under: Human Migration, Interest Rates, Negative Rates
Time to reset our interest rate assumptions?
A thought experiment – what if low-to-negative interest rates are here to stay…
But first, Disney is crushing it at the box office.
WSJ – Daily Shot: Box Office Mojo – Domestic Box Office Market Share 7/31/19
A symptom of low / negative interest rates…
FT – UBS plans negative interest rate for rich clients – David Crow, Stephen Morris, and Alice Ross 7/31/19
UBS plans to levy a negative interest rate on wealthy clients who deposit more than SFr2m (USD $2M) with its Swiss bank, as lenders hunker down for a period of ultra-loose monetary policy.
Several banks in Switzerland and the eurozone already pass on the cost of negative official rates to corporate depositors, although most large players have refrained from doing so with individual clients.
But with policymakers expected to adopt a "lower for longer" stance for the foreseeable future, UBS Switzerland will from November charge 0.75% a year on individual cash balances above SFr2m, according to three people briefed on the plans.
The move underscores how banks in Europe and the US are scrambling to prepare for a protracted spell of lower rates that threatens their profitability, having previously wagered that central bankers would tighten monetary policy.
"We assume that this period of low interest rates will last even longer and that banks will continue to have to pay negative interest rates on customer deposits at central banks," UBS said. "Following similar moves by a number of other banks here in Switzerland, we confirm that we've decided to adjust cash deposit fees for Swiss francs held in Switzerland."
The move comes as Credit Suisse, UBS's main rival, said on Wednesday it was also thinking about imposing a levy on some wealthy clients.
And now an extremely insightful piece from Robin Harding of the Financial Times. This one is in its entirety with some emphasis made in bold (mine).
FT – Profoundly low interest rates are here to stay – Robin Harding 7/30/19
This will be a discomforting, defining week for the global economy. That is not because the US Federal Reserve is set to cut interest rates. Rather it is because of the strikingly low level of rates from which the Fed will start: a range of just 2.25% to 2.5%.
After more than a decade of economic expansion, and despite everything from tariffs to tax cuts, it seems this is as high as US interest rates go. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is debating whether to reduce its negative rate still further. Until this month, it was possible to imagine that pre-financial crisis levels of 4% to 5% might eventually return. No longer.
According to their own projections, Fed officials believe rates will settle at 2.5% in the long run. Subtract their 2% inflation target and the real reward for capital is going to be a miserable 0.5%. The equivalent rate in Europe and Japan will almost certainly be much lower. Such low levels of interest rates are a profound change from the past. (The federal funds rate was 6.5%, and the real rate was about 4% as recently as 2000.) Although interest rates touch almost every aspect of economic life, the developed world remains deep in denial about the consequences. Here are eight themes for investors and policymakers to ponder.
First, there is an intimate link between long-run interest rates and long-run economic growth. Perhaps capital is less relevant to the digital economy, but for interest rates to max out at such low levels sends an alarming signal about the prospects for future expansion.
Second, monetary policy is broken. In 2008-09, the Fed cut rates by 5 percentage points and it was not enough. Today it has far less room to respond to a recession. The Bank of Japan, which made no move on Tuesday, has all but given up trying to hit its 2% inflation target. The ECB is in danger of going the same way. The world is dismally unprepared for a downturn: two of the world's most influential central banks may start the next recession with their policy rate already below zero.
Third, if monetary policy is broken, fiscal policy must step in. That means either governments must approve higher spending and tax cuts in response to a recession or else give the central bank a fiscal tool in the form of "helicopter money", essentially printing money to spend or distribute to the public. Alternatively, governments could set higher inflation targets and use fiscal policy to reach them now. That would give their central banks more room to cut when they need it.
Fourth, lower interest rates make debt more sustainable. This is particularly true for public debt, because countries actually borrow at these low risk-free rates, and somewhat true for private debt. For many countries, it makes sense to borrow more in order to invest. Predictions of financial crisis based on past levels of debt-to-gross domestic product are likely to be misleading.
Fifth, capital stock should rise relative to output. Investments that were once unprofitable now make sense: road upgrades to save a few minutes of time; expensive, niche drugs to help a few hundred people; or extra years of study to earn a graduate degree. Such projects may feel irrational. They are not.
Sixth, any asset in fixed supply is now more valuable, because its future cash flows can be discounted at a lower rate. A monopoly supplier of water or electricity, land in a city center or the back catalogue of Disney: the capital value of these assets must rise, so their yield matches the lower interest rates. This trend is related to recent movements in wealth inequality. It also puts investors at risk of identifying financial bubbles that do not actually exist. One vital policy response would be to slash the return on capital allowed to utilities.
Seventh, demand for housing will rise. It is, after all, the main capital asset that most people use. There are two potential outcomes. Where it is possible to build, permanently lower interest rates will trigger an increase in the housing stock. If it is not possible to build, then houses will behave like assets in fixed supply, and soar in price. Thus falling interest rates make planning and zoning rules a crucial economic issue.
Eighth, low interest rates make it harder to save. In particular, they make it harder to save for a pension, and harder to live off whatever capital accumulates. This fact has been obscured by the one-off rise in price for scarce assets, many of which are owned by pension funds. But future returns are likely to fall. The result will force workers to accept some combination of later retirement, higher taxes, bigger pension contributions or lower incomes in old age.
It is possible that this bout of low interest rates will end. Perhaps the Fed is mistaken and it will have to raise rates sharply in the future. Perhaps a burst of technological progress will raise growth and boost demand for capital.
But no one can choose to make that happen: this is not some perverse plot by Fed chair Jay Powell and ECB president Mario Draghi to make life miserable for the world's savers. The long-run real interest rate balances the desire to save and demand to invest. Central banks are its servants not its masters.
The trend towards lower real interest rates has lasted for decades and is as likely to continue as to reverse. With central banks moving to ease, it is time to stop waiting for rates to recover and face the world as we find it.
Filed under: Deposit Rates, Disney, Entertainment, Interest Rates
Cheap money is changing the game
Bloomberg Businessweek – A Decade of Low Interest Rates Is Changing Everything – Liz McCormick with John Gittelsohn, Christopher Anstey, Ben Holland, and Michelle F. Davis 7/22/19
It's hard to wrap your head around just how low U.S. interest and bond yields are—still are—a decade after the Great Recession ended. Year after year, prognosticators said that rates were bound to go back up soon: Just be ready. That exercise has proved to be like waiting for Godot.
Thirty-year mortgage rates are a fraction of long-run averages, and companies too are paying very little to borrow. All that cheap money has been helping the economy along. On the other side of the ledger, bank depositors are getting paid only a fraction of 1% on their savings.
The longevity of low rates has upended long-standing assumptions about money and reshaped a generation of investors, traders, savers, and policymakers. The Federal Reserve has tried to push the U.S. into a higher-rate regime, raising rates nine times since 2015, when the key short-term rate was near zero. But now the central bank appears ready to reverse course and start cutting again when it meets at the end of July.
Anne Walsh, chief investment officer of fixed income at Guggenheim Partners, says there's been "a paradigm shift of epic proportion for investors." Not only are short-term rates low, but long-dated bond rates are minuscule, too, suggesting that investors see little likelihood of rates—and the economic conditions they reflect—changing anytime soon.
Borrowers of all kinds have been clear benefactors of this sea change, with many nations and companies locking in low rates for as long as a century. Belgium and Ireland have sold 100-year bonds, as did Austria this year at a yield of 1.171%. In 2015, Microsoft Corp. sold 40-year bonds and the University of California issued 100-year debt. Subdued rates have also buffered the U.S. Treasury from rising interest costs on the federal debt.
Individuals have had to get used to earning paltry rates. The national average rate on savings accounts is 0.10%, little changed from four years ago and down from 0.30% in 2009, according to data from Bankrate.com. In 2000, well before the financial crisis, the rate was 1.73%.
The problem is the same for institutions that manage savings on behalf of others. Pension funds, overseeing trillions in retirees' future cash, have been ratcheting down return expectations. The 30-year Treasury bond, a favored debt security, yields about 2.5%—compared with an average 6.5% since the 1970s. Even a record rise in stock prices hasn't solved the low-return problem for pension funds, because many of them cut their allocations to equities after the financial crisis.
Where low rates really bite isn't in current returns but in the future gains investors can reasonably expect. Interest rates set a kind of baseline for the return on all assets. As they fall, bond values rise and stocks often do, too. But once rates have settled at or near rock bottom, there's less room for that kind of price appreciation.
While some Fed officials wish they could get back to more-normal rates, so they have more room to ease again in the future if they need to fight a downturn or fresh financial crisis, they seem to have their hands tied. For all the problems low rates may cause, policymakers see them as a stimulant to growth. Although unemployment rates are very low, the economy took an agonizingly long time to recover from the financial crisis. And now a slowdown in global growth and headwinds from Trump's trade war have made risks to U.S. output too strong to ignore.
The surprising persistence of low rates has even quietly reordered the hierarchy on Wall Street. Hedge fund managers may still be glamorous on shows like Billions, but in real life they've had to fight to retain clients. Partly that's because many hedge fund managers thrive on volatility, and in a world where the dreaded spike in interest rates has never arrived, there's been too little of that for them. The long fall in rates has made it easier so far to earn money with simple investments such as stock and bond index funds. Meanwhile, cheap financing costs and rising asset values have been a boon for private equity firms. Investors have committed about $4 trillion to them in the last decade, according to data from research firm Preqin Ltd.
In 2009, bond powerhouse Pacific Investment Management Co. saw all this coming, when they dubbed their multiyear investment outlook "the new normal" and predicted lower long-term yields. They saw the same issues the Fed and central bankers around the world are grappling with now: slow growth, a combination of technological innovation and low-cost global labor that eases inflationary pressure, and a glut of savings as the populations of rich countries age. Looking ahead, with many of those 2009 factors remaining, "the new wrinkle is concern around global trade and countries looking more inward," Pimco Group Chief Investment Officer Dan Ivascyn says. "Yields can absolutely go a lot lower."
Filed under: Interest Rates
Trying a new approach. Thoughts?
Trade War. Chinese Aviation. Japan Sex Industry. Facebook. Investment Management. Interest Rates. Solar Installations. US Treasuries. Shipping. Ireland. Britain. Former presidents Park and Lula.
Continue reading "April 9, 2018" →
Filed under: Aviation, Brazil, Britain, Facebook, Interest Rates, Investment Management, Ireland, Japan Sex Industry, Shipping, Solar Installations, South Korea, Trade War, US Treasuries
FT – Naspers trims Tencent stake with $10bn share sale – Joseph Cotterill and Louise Lucas 3/22
"Naspers, the South African media company that is one of the biggest shareholders in Tencent, said that it would sell down part of its stake in the Chinese technology giant for the first time in almost two decades."
"In a statement on Thursday, Naspers said that it would sell stock worth more than $10bn, equivalent to 2% of the shares in Asia's biggest company by market capitalization, to fund investments elsewhere."
"The transaction would reduce Naspers' stake in Tencent, the world's biggest gaming company and the owner of China's WeChat and QQ social networks, from 33% to 31%."
"Naspers added that it did not plan to sell any more of its Tencent shares for at least the next three years."
"But even Thursday's limited sell down is a landmark for what has been one of the most successful venture capital investments in history, and comes as Hong Kong-listed Tencent shifts strategy after years of explosive growth."
"Naspers' investment of $32m in Tencent in 2001, now worth $175bn, powered its rise from a publisher and pay-TV operator to Africa's biggest company by market capitalization."
Approximately a 65.91% compound growth rate over 17 years. How do you like them apples?
Worthy Insights / Opinion Pieces / Advice
Forbes – Canadian Real Estabe Bubble Blowing Up North – Bob Haber 4/2
"According to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, single detached homes in Vancouver (on a local currency basis) have risen from approximately $400K CAD to $1.75 million CAD since 2002. That's a 337% increase in 15 years. With incredibly fast rising prices, a large portion of the population is engaged in real estate brokerage, real estate development, construction, renovations, and everything that goes along with that. The echoes of Phoenix, Las Vegas, and San Diego from 2006 cannot be ignored."
"…Taxation and interest rates are going higher. Cap rates on rentals or commercial properties are shockingly low (think 1% to 3% in most circumstances). In fact, Canada's price-to-rent ratios are now well above what they were in the U.S. during the 2006 housing debacle. According to the Bank of Canada, 47% of Canada's mortgages will reset in the next 12 months. To put that in perspective, a five-year fixed mortgage rate in Canada averages approximately 5.14%. This is 11% higher versus the 4.64% that it averaged for most of the past 2 years."
NYT – Teachers in Oklahoma and Kentucky Walk Out: 'It Really Is a Wildfire' – Dana Goldstein 4/2
Markets / Economy
engadget – New York approves surcharge for Uber and Lyft rides in Manhattan – David Lumb 4/2
"As part of the budget that New York lawmakers passed last Friday, ride-hailing services and taxis face a new fee if they drive in Manhattan. These aren't nickel-and-dime increases, either: Uber, Lyft and the like face a $2.75 charge for each ride, taxis get a $2.50 increase and group ride services like Via and uberPOOL will be charged $0.75 per customer. It's meant to combat congestion and help fund subway repair and improvements, providing an expected $400 million per year going forward for the MTA."
"Unsurprisingly, it's already catching flak from customers and from taxi drivers, who have become far outnumbered by ride-sharing cars in the last several years. Of the 103,000 vehicles for hire in NYC, 65,000 are driven by Uber contractors alone, while taxis remain capped by law at 13,600, The New York Times reported. As a result, average traffic in Manhattan has slowed from 6.5 miles per hour to 4.7."
"Other cities have enacted their own surcharges for ride-hailing services in recent years, but they are far lower than those New York just passed. Seattle instated a $0.24 charge for each trip in 2014, Portland, OR agreed to levy a $0.50 fee per customer in 2016, both of which funnel money collected toward regulating ride-sharing services. Chicago passed one in 2014 that will reach $0.65 this year and directs part of the funds raised toward public transit, much like New York's will."
FT – Walmart extends money transfer operation to 200 countries – Anna Nicolaou and Ben McLannahan 4/2
"Walmart is expanding its money transfer operation to 200 countries, the latest move in the retail giant's slow but steady push into financial services."
"Through the new scheme, people will be able to deliver money from Walmart's nearly 5,000 US stores to locations abroad within 10 minutes, the company said."
"Arkansas-based Walmart first unveiled a money transfer service four years ago, allowing customers to send funds between its stores, and aiming to reach the "underbanked" — about 27% of Americans have limited access to traditional banking, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Walmart claims it has saved customers $700m in fees because it charges cheaper rates."
"The retailer has partnered with MoneyGram, one of the big wire transfer groups, to expand globally this month. The service will allow US residents to send money to countries such as Mexico, which received nearly $30bn in remittances last year, according to Mexico's central bank."
"Walmart's push into money transfers comes a few months after it announced it was partnering with PayActiv and Even, two financial-technology firms, to offer its 1.4m US employees tools for money management and on-demand access to their earned wages."
"The moves suggest the retailer may see itself as a partner of the big financial services companies rather than a direct rival going head to head with basic products such as checking accounts or credit cards."
WSJ – Daily Shot: Political Calculations – Why Bad News for Big Tech Is Bad for Stocks 3/29
WSJ – Daily Shot: SPDR Americas – Equity Geographical Flows 4/3
WSJ – Daily Shot: Deutsche Bank – Drawdown Durations 4/3
FT – Manhattan apartment sales plunge – Lindsay Fortado 4/2
"The number of co-op and condominium sales in Manhattan fell nearly 25% during the first quarter compared to the same period last year, according to new research by Miller Samuel real estate appraisers and Douglas Elliman real estate brokers."
"It was the largest annual decline in sales in nine years, according to the report."
"The average sale price across Manhattan fell by 8.1% from the year-earlier quarter, and the average price per square foot also recorded a sharp decline, falling by 18.5% to $1,697."
"Luxury apartment sales, considered the most expensive 10% of all properties, were hit particularly hard, as were new developments."
"The average sales price of a luxury apartment fell 15.1%, down from $9.36m in the first quarter of 2017 to $7.94m in the first quarter of this year, and the number of sales was down 24.1%. The number of newly built apartments that went into contract fell 54%."
WSJ – Daily Shot: Black Knight – Mortgage Equity 4/3
"Turning to consumer credit, how much borrowing capacity do households have against their homes? The answer is $5.4 trillion. $2.8 trillion of that capacity is with borrowers who have the highest credit scores."
WSJ – Daily Shot: Black Knight – Hurricane-related mortgage delinquencies in Florida and Puerto Rico 4/3
WSJ – Daily Shot: Deutsche Bank – Countries with Negative-Yielding Bonds 4/3
Cryptocurrency / ICOs
Bloomberg – The Crypto Hedge-Fund Bubble Is Starting to Deflate – Olga Kharif 4/2
FT – Why south-east Asia's politics are proving problem for Facebook – John Reed and Hannah Kuchler 4/2
"One of the company's fastest-growing markets is also one of its most complex where hate speech and political manipulation are making it hard to remain neutral."
FT – China moves its factories back to the countryside – Emily Feng 4/2
"After decades of urbanization and rural neglect, China's Communist party is seeking to revitalize the countryside, where wages and standards of living have stagnated compared with those of big cities."
FT – Chinese developers seek piece of booming education market – Emily Feng 4/2
"When China's premier Li Keqiang recently vowed progress on a property tax intended to rein in home prices, it signaled to the country's real estate developers that more than a decade of double-digit growth would soon end."
"Facing slowing growth in their core business, top developers are betting on the education market, building and operating international schools for tens of thousands of students."
"The country's three biggest property developers — Country Garden, Evergrande and Vanke — have seen sales slow in the first quarter of this year, according to an industry ranking compiled by research agency China Real Estate Information Corp. Meanwhile, home price growth has dipped following a clampdown on lending and property speculation."
"That has already made a dent in developers' financials. Dalian Wanda reported a revenue drop of almost 11% in 2017 while other residential developers are girding for longer-term impact. JPMorgan Chase has forecast as much as a 6% decline in mainland Chinese home sales this year."
"Now developers are 'looking at other sectors in which to invest in order to get the returns that they need to continue growth', says John Mortensen, regional director of real estate investment and management company JLL, which often works with universities."
"Meanwhile, China's education market is booming. The sector will grow from Rmb1.64tn ($261bn) in revenue in 2015 to Rmb2.9tn ($461bn) in 2020, according to Deloitte, with particularly high demand for English-language curriculums."
"Amid fierce competition to get into good universities at home and overseas, proximity to a good school is often a key factor in determining Chinese property prices. A 2012 study of Shanghai housing found that prices were more than 40% higher in top-rated school districts."
"That has prompted residential developers to build new complexes with schools within walking distance of apartments, hiring or building in-house education teams to recruit teachers and design bilingual curriculums."
"Guangzhou-based Country Garden, China's top residential developer by sales, is now also among the country's biggest private education providers. Its education subsidiary, Bright Scholar, runs 52 bilingual international schools that each offer a full education from kindergarten to secondary school. Bright Scholar listed on the New York Stock Exchange last year, raising more than $150m."
"Vanke Group, China's second biggest residential developer by sales, set up its own education group in 2015 as part of a strategic shift aimed at offering a 'full ecology' to families."
"Dalian Wanda is another property group with a growing interest in schools — its children's education and entertainment group almost tripled its sales last year even as the group's total revenues fell more than 10%."
NYT – Jeweler to the Stars Flees as India Seethes Over Bank Fraud – Maria Abi-Habib 4/3
"About a week after Mr. Modi grinned for the cameras with the prime minister, a state-run Indian bank told regulators that it had found nearly $1.8 billion in fraudulent transactions linked to the jeweler's account. Indian officials now accuse Mr. Modi, his family and business associates of assembling a global empire with nearly $3 billion in money obtained illegally, mostly from government-run banks. He denies wrongdoing."
"For many Indians, the allegations against Mr. Modi further cement the notion that taxpayer-owned banks are footing the bill for the lavish lifestyles of a rising elite. That idea has particular resonance in a country where stark poverty — India is home to a third of the world's poorest people — remains dire."
"Just a decade ago, during the global financial crisis, Indian lenders were held up as a bastion of stability. Today, they are considered more vulnerable than those in other leading emerging markets, mostly because state-controlled lenders dominate the sector, according to the International Monetary Fund."
"Of the $6.5 billion in fraudulent loans that have hit the industry over the past two years, the most egregious cases were at government-owned banks, according to figures released by Parliament. Executives at those lenders are more likely to be appointed for their political connections than for their talent, financial analysts say."
FT – Russia plans 'bad bank' for $19bn in toxic assets – Max Seddon 4/2
"Russia's central bank is to create a 'bad bank' to ringfence Rbs1.1tn ($19bn) in toxic assets from three nationalized top-10 lenders, vastly increasing the total bill for bailing them out."
"Vasily Pozdyshev, a deputy central bank governor, told Russian news agencies on Monday that the central bank would transfer assets from three collapsed banks into Trust, another failed lender."
"Taxpayers are footing the largest bank rescue bill in Russia's history to fund the central bank's takeover of three privately held banks last year to stave off a collapse in the sector."
"The largest of them, Otkritie, was Russia's biggest privately held bank by assets until it was nationalized in August. The central bank then nationalized B & N Bank, another top-10 lender, and Promsvyazbank to stop them from going under."
"Under Ms Nabiullina (Elvira Nabiullina, Russian central bank governor), the central bank is conducting an unprecedented clear-up of the sector under which it has wound down more than 300 banks since 2013. To rescue the three top-10 lenders, however, Ms Nabiullina had to create a separate bailout mechanism that allowed the central bank to take direct stakes in their capital."
FT – Russia's $55bn pipeline gamble on China's demand for gas – Henry Foy 4/2
"The pipeline is Russia's most ambitious, costly and geopolitically critical energy project since the fall of the Soviet Union, and represents a $55bn bet on uncharted territory by the world's biggest gas company."
"Russia's first eastern pipeline is the most striking physical manifestation of President Vladimir Putin's diplomatic pivot towards China amid rapidly worsening relations with the west. It is the biggest and most critical element in a suite of energy deals, funding packages and asset sales that seek to warm a once frosty relationship."
"For Gazprom, the Kremlin-controlled gas export monopoly behind the pipeline, the mega-project is the largest and most expensive in its history. When the taps are switched on in December 2019, the world's largest gas exporter will be connected for the first time with its largest energy importer."
Filed under: Bonds, Canada, China, Country Garden, Cryptocurrencies, Dalian Wanda, Evergrande, Facebook, Florida, Home Equity, India, Interest Rates, Investment Management, Manhattan Real Estate, Mortgage Delinquencies, Naspers, Negative Rates, Puerto Rico, Real Estate, Ride Sharing, Russia, Southeast Asia, Teacher Pay, Technology, Tencent, Vanke, Walmart
Visual Capitalist – Visualizing the Average Commute Time in U.S. States and Cities – Jeff Desjardins 4/1
FT – Columbus shows Trump how to thrive in the new world order – Rana Foroohar 4/1
"The city's success shows why industrial policy, not tariffs, is the winning strategy."
Project Syndicate – Will China Really Supplant US Economic Hegemony? – Kenneth Rogoff 4/2
Seeking Alpha – Tesla Model 3 Costs More To Charge Than A Gasoline Car – Anton Wahlman 4/1
WSJ – U.S. Fiscal Future Won't Be Like Its Carefree Past – Greg Ip 3/28
FT – Wary shale investors warn against drilling at all costs – Ed Crooks 4/1
WSJ – Daily Shot: FRED – Federal Reserve Total Assets (Balance Sheet) 4/2
WSJ – Daily Shot: FRED – Commercial and Industrial Loans 4/2
WSJ – Daily Shot: Investing.com – Bitcoin v. Bitcoin Cash 4/2
WSJ – Dominant Box Office Run of 'Black Panther' Underscores a Growing Hollywood Problem – Ben Fritz 4/1
"This year's box office so far has been a story of one completely dominant movie, 'Black Panther,' highlighting a potentially troubling trend for Hollywood in which ticket sales are increasingly concentrated among just a few ultra-successful pictures."
"With $650.7 million and counting, 'Black Panther' is on track to become the third highest grossing movie ever in the U.S. and Canada. It accounted for 23% of all ticket sales in the first three months of the year, ending Saturday, according to comScore. That is the second-highest percentage ever behind only 'Titanic,' which took 25% in the winter of 1998."
"'Black Panther' is an extreme example of the trend that Hollywood has been struggling with for some years. In 2015, 2016 and 2017, the top 10 movies raked in between 32% and 35% of total box office, comScore said. Previously, that figure never exceeded 30%. So far this year, it is 58%."
Health / Medicine
Axios – Opioid prescription rates dropping across the country – Stef W. Kight and Lazaro Gamio 3/31
Bloomberg – Toronto's Tale of Two Markets Is Hot Condos and Cold Houses – Natalie Wong 3/29
"After a decade as one of the world's hottest housing markets, Toronto is moving in two directions. Transactions have certainly cooled since May as the government introduced new rules to tame runaway prices. But the impact has been largely on big, expensive detached homes, with sales plunging 41% in February from a year earlier, and prices dropping 12% since hitting a record last year. Condo prices, in contrast, soared about 20% since last February."
"The deviation is largely as a result of mortgage regulations that went into effect on Jan. 1 as well as rising interest rates. The rule requires that even people with a 20% down payment, who don't require mortgage insurance, prove they can make payments at least 2% points above the rates under which they go into contract."
"That's pushing buyers out of the detached segment and right into the condo market."
FT – China's P2P lenders brace for renewed regulatory crackdown – Emily Feng 4/1
"Thousands of online lenders could be facing extinction as China rolls out a new licensing framework, amid complaints about a lack of clarity on how the regime will work."
"P2P platforms match borrowers with investors online. China's P2P lending industry recorded transactions valued at $445bn in 2017, according to Online Lending Club, a data company."
"Many P2P lenders, including one of the largest, Hongling Capital, were weeded out in crackdowns in 2016 and 2017 after agencies reporting to China's central bank began closing fraudulent platforms and those selling high-interest loans."
"Of more than 6,000 online lending platforms launched over the past several years, fewer than 2,000 were still in operation at the end of February, according to Online Lending House, a data provider — a sign of how regulation, competition and fraud have thinned the industry's ranks."
"As part of the regulatory overhaul, P2P lenders are barred from guaranteeing principal or interest on loans they facilitate; are limited to loans of no more than Rmb1m ($159,000) for individual borrowers and Rmb5m for companies; and must use custodian banks."
FT – China revives long-stalled property tax to combat housing bubble – Gabriel Wildau and Yizhen Jia 3/31
"After years of delay and quiet opposition from vested interests, China will push ahead with a property tax that is viewed as crucial to taming the country's housing bubble."
"House prices in major Chinese cities are among the highest in the world in terms of price-income ratios, with speculative demand from Chinese investors — who see few other good places to park their savings — as a major driver. The result is an estimated 50m empty homes, according to a broad survey by researchers from Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in Chengdu."
"A landmark blueprint for economic reform that the Communist party leadership approved five years ago included a pledge to push ahead with a property tax. But a subsequent slowdown in the economy, including a housing-market downturn in 2014-15, prompted authorities to shelve those plans."
"Quiet opposition from wealthy urbanites, including government officials who own multiple homes, also hindered progress."
"'When will the tax actually come out is difficult to say, but at least the intention has strengthened,' said Chen Shen, head of property research at China Securities in Shanghai. 'Two years ago everyone was discussing whether it would ever happen, but now it's very clear that it will'."
WSJ – Daily Shot: @NickTimiraos – Change in Home Prices – Japan & U.S. 4/2
Other Interesting Links
WSJ – Dockless Bike Share Floods into U.S. Cities, With Rides and Clutter – Eliot Brown 3/26
Filed under: Bike Sharing, Canada, China, Commercial Loans, Commute Times, Cryptocurrencies, Debt, Energy, Entertainment, Fed Balance Sheet, Interest Rates, Japan, Opioids, Real Estate, Tesla
Bloomberg Gadfly – Users Built Facebook's Empire, and They Can Crumble It – Nir Kaissar 3/26
FT – It is Venezuela's crisis that is driving the oil price higher – Nick Butler 3/25
"While the Maduro-military alliance holds, output is likely to fall further."
NYT – Live in a Drainpipe? Five Extreme Ideas to Solve Hong Kong's Housing Crisis – Austin Ramzy 3/26
NYT – Repeal the Second Amendment – John Paul Stevens (retired associate justice of US Supreme Court) 3/27
NYT – New Leadership Has Not Changed Uber – Steven Hill 3/26
"The problem with Uber was never that the chief executive had created a thuggish 'Game of Thrones'-type culture, as Susan Fowler, an engineer, described it in a blog post. The problem was, and still is, Uber's business model: Its modus operandi is to subsidize fares and flood streets with its cars to achieve a transportation monopoly. In city after city, this has led to huge increases in traffic congestion, increased carbon emissions and the undermining of public transportation."
"Most customers who love Uber don't realize that the company subsidizes the cost of many rides. This is likely a major factor in Uber's annual losses surging from 2.8 billion in 2016 to $4.5 billion in 2017. This seemingly nonsensical approach is actually Uber's effort to use its deep pockets to mount a predatory price war and shut out the competition. That competition is not only taxis and other ride-sharing companies, but public transportation."
"Ridership on public transportation is down in nearly every major American city, including New York City (which recorded its first ridership dip since 2009). This is hurting the revenue that public transportation needs to sustain itself. Uber passengers and public transportation users alike now find themselves stuck in heavy traffic for far longer because of what's been called 'Uber congestion.' In Manhattan, there are five times as many ridesharing vehicles as yellow taxis, which has caused average speeds to decline by 15% compared with 2010, before Uber."
"Ride-sharing services could potentially add something positive to our transportation options, but only if they are regulated properly."
"First, regulators should limit the number of ride-sharing cars. Traditional taxis already have a sensible limit to minimize congestion. A balance must be found between having enough taxi-type vehicles but not so many that the streets are choked with traffic. Fix NYC, a panel appointed by Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York, has called for all Ubers, Lyfts and taxis to be outfitted with GPS technology to track congestion and to charge a fee on for-hire vehicles that could help reduce traffic and generate hundreds of millions of dollars for public transportation."
"Second, Uber should be prohibited from subsidizing its fares. It should be required to charge at least the true cost of each ride. If Uber refuses, a 'fairness fee' should be added to each fare."
"Third, ride-sharing companies and their vehicles should be required to follow the same laws as traditional taxis, especially in terms of background checks for drivers and insurance requirements."
"Fourth, Uber should be required to share its data with regulators, including information about its drivers and their contact information, so that members of this 'distributed work force' can more easily contact one another and organize collectively if they choose."
"Finally, regulations should ensure that Uber treats its drivers fairly. Mr. Khosrowshahi asserts that drivers' wages are adequate, but according to one study, more than half of Uber drivers earn less than the minimum wage in their state, and some even lose money once the costs of driving are taken into account. That helps explain why, according to Uber's own internal study, half of its drivers leave after a year."
WSJ – Turkey Is the One to Watch for Emerging Markets Risk – Richard Barley 3/26
WSJ – How a Tiny Latvian Bank Became a Haven for the World's Dirty Money – Drew Hinshaw, Patricia Kowsmann, and Ian Talley 3/26
WSJ – Libor's Rise Accelerates, Squeezing Short-Term Borrowers – Ben Eisen and Chelsey Dulaney 3/27
"The three-month London interbank offered rate climbed to 2.29% in the U.S. on Monday, its highest since November 2008. Libor measures the cost for banks to lend to one another and is used to set interest rates on roughly $200 trillion in dollar-based financial contracts globally, from corporate loans to home mortgages."
"Libor has been rising for the last 2½ years as the Federal Reserve lifts its key policy rate, but recently the pace has picked up. It has climbed nearly a full percentage point in the last six months—outpacing the Fed—and could rise further with the approaching end of the quarter, typically a time of elevated demand for short-term funds in the banking sector, analysts say."
"Demand for dollars at the end of the first quarter could send Libor up an additional 0.2 percentage point in the coming days, market analysts say, as investors rebalance their portfolios and banks rein in their balance sheets. The end of March also marks the finish of Japan's fiscal year, potentially compounding the moves as big investors bring money back to Japan."
"Libor has already sprinted ahead of the rates indicated by central bank policies, an acceleration that has baffled economists and traders. That widening gap has alarmed those who watch it as a signal of stress in the financial system. Others have pinned it on a series of technical factors, such as rising short-term debt sales by the U.S. government and new corporate tax policies."
"Other markets that can be tapped for dollars—including through the swaps market and liquidity lines maintained by global central banks—aren't yet showing a big dollar squeeze."
The Big Picture – WeWork: Manhattan's 2nd-biggest Private Office Tenant – Barry Ritholtz 3/27
FT – House prices falling in two-fifths of London postcodes – James Pickford 3/26
"House prices are falling in two out of five London postcodes, according to research that underlines the growing divergence between prices in southern English cities and those elsewhere in the UK."
"The average annual rate of price growth in the capital has slowed to 1%, down sharply from 4.3% a year ago, meaning it is at its lowest level since August 2011, according to research by Hometrack, a housing market analyst. This stands in contrast to UK-wide average house price growth of 5.2% in the year to February 2018, up from 4% a year ago."
"Prices are under greatest pressure in central London, where owners of the most expensive types of property began cutting prices in 2015 responding to the impact of higher taxes. In the past year, however, the trend has deepened in areas beyond the prime zones of Westminster and Kensington & Chelsea. The boroughs that saw the greatest drop in value were the City of London, Camden, Southwark, Islington and Wandsworth, according to Hometrack's research."
"Hometrack is predicting that the number of areas of the capital experiencing falling house prices will multiply during this year as trapped sellers reduce their asking prices to drive through transactions. 'The net result will be a negative rate of headline price growth for London by the middle of 2018,' the research said."
"Outside southern England, house prices are more likely to be rising, in some places at a substantial pace. Edinburgh, Liverpool, Leicester, Birmingham and Manchester are adding more than 7% a year to their average house price, Hometrack found, with Leeds, Nottingham and Sheffield pegging rises of 6% or more."
"The laggards in the 20-city index were Aberdeen (down by 7.7%), Cambridge (down by 1.5%) and Oxford (up by just 0.5%)."
NYT – Grocery Wars Turn Small Chains Into Battlefield Casualties – Michael Corkery 3/26
WSJ – Homeowners Ditch Refinancings as Mortgage Rates Rise – Christina Rexrode 3/26
"Last year, 37% of mortgage-origination volume was because of refinancings, according to industry research group Inside Mortgage Finance. That is the smallest proportion since 1995, and the number of refinancings is widely expected to shrink again this year. In 2012, refinancings were 72% of originations."
"While purchase activity has climbed steadily from a post-financial-crisis nadir in 2011, growth in 2017 wasn't enough to offset a $366 billion decline in refinancing activity. The result: The overall mortgage market fell around 12%, to $1.8 trillion, according to Inside Mortgage Finance."
"What's more, there are fewer homeowners eligible to refinance because of rising rates. The number of borrowers who could benefit from a refinancing is down about 37% from the end of last year, estimates Black Knight Inc., a mortgage-data and technology firm. At 2.67 million potential borrowers, this group is at its smallest since 2008."
"Home-purchase activity has so far been holding up. Sales of previously owned homes in February rose 1.1% from a year earlier, countering worries that a downturn the previous month signaled a peak for the market."
"Still, rising interest rates, a shortage of housing inventory and higher home prices are all long-term threats to purchase activity."
"For refinancings, rising rates are a more immediate worry. Freddie Mac said last week that the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 4.45%, up from 3.95% at the beginning of the year."
"The Mortgage Bankers Association expects mortgage-purchase volume to grow about 5% in 2018 but refinancing volume to drop 27%. Refinance applications fell 5% in the week ended March 16 from the prior one, according to the group."
Bloomberg – Fewer Americans Hold Cryptocurrencies Than You Probably Think – Olga Kharif 3/16
"More than 90% of American adults don't own cryptocurrencies – and most have a lot of concerns about the coins, a new survey from Finder found."
Bloomberg – Maine's Lobster Tide Might Be Ebbing – Justin Fox 3/23
"The numbers came in earlier this month on Maine's 2017 lobster harvest. By historical standards, the 110.8 million-pound, $434 million haul was pretty spectacular. But it was a lot lower than 2016's 132.5 million-pound, $540 million record, and it was another sign that the Great Lobster Boom that has surprised and delighted Maine's lobster fishermen since the 1990s — and brought lobster rolls to diners from coast to coast — may be giving way to … something else."
"The lobster boom does not seem to be the result of overfishing; Maine's lobster fishermen figured out a set of rules decades ago that appear to allow them to manage the catch sustainably. There are just lots and lots more lobsters off the coast of Maine than there used to be. Why? In a column last spring, I listed four reasons that I'd heard during a trip to Maine:"
"Warmer temperatures in the Gulf of Maine."
"A collapse in the population of cod, which eat young lobsters."
"Reduced incidence of a lobster disease called gaffkemia."
"Increased effort and efficiency on the part of lobstermen, who go farther offshore and can haul in more traps in a day than they used to."
"Given how quickly the lobster harvests grew, though, especially from 2007 through 2012, it's hard not to wonder whether they might not eventually collapse. They already have in several states farther down the Atlantic coast. Lobster landings were still on the rise as of 2016 (data aren't available yet for 2017) in New Hampshire and Massachusetts but peaked in Rhode Island in 1999, Connecticut in 1998, New York in 1996 and New Jersey in 1990."
"So that's some evidence for the warming-ocean-temperatures theory of the lobster boom. This would imply that eventually even the oceans off Maine will get too warm, although it doesn't give much of a hint as to when."
Canada has been benefiting as well.
Filed under: Cryptocurrencies, Energy, Environment, Facebook, Fishing, Greater London, Hong Kong, Interest Rates, LIBOR, Maine, Money Laundering, Mortgage Origination, Real Estate, Turkey, Uber, Venezuela, WeWork
NYT – Extensive Data Shows Punishing Reach of Racism for Black Boys – Emily Badger, Claire Cain Miller, Adam Pearce and Kevin Quealy 3/19
Check the link for some very insightful interactive graphics.
"Black boys raised in America, even in the wealthiest families and living in some of the most well-to-do neighborhoods, still earn less in adulthood than white boys with similar backgrounds, according to a sweeping new study that traced the lives of millions of children."
"White boys who grow up rich are likely to remain that way. Black boys raised at the top, however, are more likely to become poor than to stay wealthy in their own adult households."
"Most white boys raised in wealthy families will stay rich or upper middle class as adults, but black boys raised in similarly rich households will not."
WSJ – Daily Shot: Pew – How Millennials today compare with their grandparents 50 years ago – Richard Fry, Ruth Igielnik and Eileen Patten 3/16
A Wealth of Common Sense – Accidental Career Guidance – Ben Carlson 3/18
Fortune – Mapping The Best (100) Companies 3/1
FT – Italian election results expose eurozone inadequacy – Martin Wolf 3/13
"Until prosperity is better distributed, Europe will remain vulnerable to upheaval."
WSJ – A Decade After Bear's Collapse, the Seeds of Instability Are Germinating Again – Greg Ip 3/14
"…Hyun Song Shin, research chief at the Bank for International Settlements, warned in a 2014 speech against the tendency to 'focus on known past weaknesses rather than asking where the new dangers are.' Banks may be stronger than a decade ago, but the financial system hasn't returned to its pre-1980 repressed state."
"Mr. Shin pointed out that bond markets are growing at the expense of banks in supplying credit, enabling business and government debt loads in many countries to surpass their pre-crisis peaks. Emerging markets have borrowed heavily in dollars, which leaves them vulnerable should the dollar's value rise sharply. Before the crisis, 80% of investment-grade corporate debt world-wide yielded more than 4%; as of last October, less than 5% did, according to the International Monetary Fund."
"Total U.S. debt, at around 250% of GDP, still stands at crisis-era peaks while debt levels in China have caught up and passed the U.S., according to the BIS. U.S. companies' debts had reached 34% of assets by the end of 2016, the highest at least since 2000. Debt-servicing burdens haven't risen commensurately thanks to low inflation and low rates, but they have begun climbing. More than $1 trillion a year still flows into emerging markets each year, according to the Institute of International Finance."
"This tells us little about when or where a crisis will happen or what may trigger it. Crises surprise because they usually start with an assumption so sensible that everyone acts on it, planting the seeds of its own undoing: in 1982 that countries like Mexico don't default; in 1997 that Asia's fixed exchange rates wouldn't break; in 2007 that housing prices never declined nationwide; and in 2011 that euro members wouldn't default. James Bianco, who runs his own financial research firm in Chicago, speculates that the equivalent today might be, 'We will never see higher inflation or higher growth.' If either in fact occurs, the low interest rates that have raised household stock and property wealth to an all-time high relative to disposable income won't be sustainable."
"Mr. Rogoff (Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University economist) concurs: 'It's much harder to get a crisis when you can borrow for virtually nothing and keep rolling it over.' A 1.5 to 2 percentage point increase in real interest rates, which he isn't forecasting, would be small by historical standards but could potentially make the debts of Italy or Portugal unsustainable."
"Central banks know this, of course, which is one reason they are wary of raising interest rates too quickly—while nervous that if they raise them too slowly, the problem will get worse."
Fortune – These Are the Countries That Have Grown the Most in the Last Year – Nicolas Rapp and Anne Vandermey 2/23
Fortune – Here Are the 26 Big U.S. Companies With the Most Cash Stashed Overseas – Nicolas Rapp and Brian O'Keefe 2/22
Wolf Street – US Gross National Debt Spikes $1.2 Trillion in 6 Months, Hits $21 Trillion – Rolf Richter 3/16
FT – Saudi Arabia's existential crisis returns as US shale booms anew – Anjli Raval 3/18
"Nearly 4m barrels a day of US crude is expected to hit export markets by the mid-2020s, up from just over 1m b/d in 2017, meaning it will ship similar levels to Iraq and Canada, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie. The industry is debating whether the world will be able to absorb these volumes and how global crude flows will redirect."
"China surpassed the UK and the Netherlands to become the second-largest destination for US crude oil exports in 2017, accounting for a fifth of the 527,000 b/d total year-over-year increase in foreign sales. Chinese refiners say the trend will continue as Beijing seeks to partially address US president Donald Trump's complaints about the trade deficit between the two countries."
"The International Energy Agency forecasts that the US will cover most of the world's demand growth over the next three years. As US supply surges, the world's need for Opec's crude is forecast to fall below current production rates in 2019 and 2020."
WSJ – Daily Shot: US 3-Month LIBOR 3/18
"The US 3-month LIBOR reached 2.2% for the first time in nine years."
ars Technica – Ether plunges after SEC says "dozens" of ICO investigations underway – Timothy B. Lee 3/18
"The price of ether, the cryptocurrency of the Ethereum network, has fallen below $500 for the first time this year. The decline comes days after a senior official from the Securities and Exchange Commission acknowledged that the agency had 'dozens' of open investigations into initial coin offerings. The price of ether has fallen 19 percent in the last 24 hours, from $580 to $470."
WSJ – Daily Shot: Bitcoin 3/18
FT – Carmakers take electric fight to the factory floor – Patrick McGee 3/18
FT – Africa eats up lion's share of Chinese lending – James Kynge 3/10
"Africa attracted more Chinese state lending for energy infrastructure than any other region last year, highlighting Beijing's view of the continent's growing economic and strategic importance."
"A study by Boston University academics shows that nearly one-third, or $6.8bn, of the $25.6bn that China's state-owned development banks lent last year to energy projects worldwide went to African countries. This was ahead of south Asia, with $5.84bn."
"The loans bring total Chinese energy finance in Africa since 2000 to $34.8bn. While this is well behind the $69bn lent in Europe and Central Asia, the $62bn in Latin America and the $60bn in Asia over the same period, the 2017 data illustrate Africa's growing importance."
FT – Fonterra's second China foray comes under scrutiny – Jamie Smyth and Tom Hancock 3/7
"New Zealand dairy co-operative's farmers seek answers after Beingmate tie-up sours."
Filed under: Africa, Auto Industry, Best Companies, China, Corporate Cash, Cryptocurrencies, Debt, Electric Vehicles, Energy, Europe, Fonterra, Global GDP, Inequality, Interest Rates, Investment Management, Italy, LIBOR, Marriage, Millennials, Racism, US National Debt
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text:
Mechanical TV
Database Summary
Sets at the Museum
Roger DuPouy's Site
Peter Yanczer's Site
Gerolf Poetschke's Site
Eckhard Etzold's Site
Early Electronic TV
American Sets at the Museum
British Sets at the Museum
VHF Boosters
Postwar TV
American Postwar TV
British/European Postwar TV
Postwar TV in the Rest of the World
Postwar Broadcasting
Early Color TV
Color TV Systems
Pete Deksnis's Site
Ed Reitan's Color Television History
CRT Rebuilding
Rebuilding Tubes at the Museum
The Foundation and Museum
Early Television Foundation
Directions to the Museum
Mechanical Television
Authenticating the Fraccaro Set
From the first time this set was listed on eBay, questions were raised about its authenticity. The concerns were:
1. The set was discovered at a flea market in Italy. The condition appeared to be too pristine. It was thought that there should be more damage to the finish and the interior.
2. The style was unlike anything seen before in mechanical TV sets, and appeared to be from the 50s rather than from the 30s.
3. A number of very elaborate fakes of early scientific instruments had come out of Italy in recent years.
4. The seller was alleged to have sold fakes to buyers in Europe. The suspicion was supported by the fact that the seller runs a business that makes high quality replicas of old scientific instruments.
I recently took the set to Peter Yanczer, the foremost American expert on mechanical TV, for his analysis. He inspected the bolts, nuts, screws, and other hardware and concluded that they were from the period. He had the same opinion about the terminal strips, wire, coils, motor, potentiometer and other parts.
There were three things that looked questionable. There is a small piece of extruded aluminum under the motor. Peter wondered when aluminum extrusion was common. I checked on the Alcoa website and found that they were producing commercial extrusions in the early 20s, so that part is OK.
Peter also wondered if the on/off switch was American made. I checked with a friend in England who told me that switches of that type were commonly used in European radios of the period.
The other is the wire into the motor. It looks like rubber or plastic. Rubber wire from that era usually rots, and plastic wire is from the early 40s. I need to investigate further. However, the wire could have been replaced to make the set look better at some point.
Everything else looks real. There are a number of scratches and dents in the wood and the brass trim pieces that were not visible in the photos, so the condition is more what you would expect from a 70 year old item. The trim pieces are actually gold colored, though they look like aluminum in the photos.
The disk was originally drilled for the 30 line Baird standard. Then, a second set of holes was drilled for the German standard, with the original holes covered with small pieces of fabric glued in place. It appears that the disk is identical to the ones John Logie Baird sold in 1930.
As for the style, items such as radios, clock, and toasters were being made in Germany and the U.S. with similar styles in the late 20s and early 30s. I have found several photographs items with a similar "modern" look.
Finally, I investigated the reputation of the dealer. His eBay feedback is excellent, and I heard from several collectors who had bought expensive items from him and were completely satisfied. In addition, the dealer has been very cooperative in allowing me to authenticate the set before purchasing it.
It appears that there was an intentional campaign by a couple of dealers in Europe to discredit the set before and after the auction, in an attempt to keep the price down and to discourage bidders.
Invisible text to format smartphones. xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Early Television Museum
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info@earlytelevision.org

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Unilever And WPP Stake A $15 Million Claim In Celtra – A Clear Sign Of The Agency/Client Relationship In Flux
by Alison Weissbrot // Wednesday, June 21st, 2017 – 2:20 pm
The in-housing trend continues to reshape agency and ad tech relationships.
CPG giant Unilever announced on Wednesday that along with WPP it will invest $15 million in mobile creative management platform Celtra.
The move aligns with Unilever CMO Keith Weed's rather blunt approach to marketing strategy.
"Get out of marketing if you're not going to be a great digital marketer," Weed told press at a roundtable in Cannes on Wednesday. "We're doing quite a lot in-house. I think marketers are going to have to be much more data-savvy."
Celtra has been gaining traction over the past year with several top brands that are hot on connecting operational data, creative, advertising and analytics in partnership with newly consolidated agency clients, said company founder and CEO Mihael Mikek.
"We want to replicate and build on the success we've had with brands like Unilever, where we're licensing the software directly to brands," he said. "But agencies are a crucial part of making that work because they're going to be the ones operating the software and advising brands on how or what to implement."
Celtra has worked for several years with Unilever and with WPP's Mindshare, which operates Unilever's ULTRA programmatic trading desk, Mikek said. "There's a lot of powerful synergies for technology companies in those places where brands and agencies are coming together."
Unilever's Celtra investment isn't its first foray into creative tech innovation.
Although programmatic creative and individual messaging is largely still what Weed referred to as "sci-fi," Unilever is inching its way toward that dynamic dream. For example, a campaign for AXE in Latin America experimented with swapping different product images based on audio microsegments.
"We created vignettes of different music, cars, drinks or films," Weed said. "Surprise, surprise: People responded better to what they like."
But getting more directly involved in data and ad tech is forcing Unilever to adapt its agency relationships. The CPG titan is looking to cut the costs and complexities related to advertising across its more than 400 brands.
Like competitor Procter & Gamble, Unilever has cut its agency roster in half.
"[With] the fragmentation of media, brands were working with 10 to 14 agencies," Weed said. "I'm keen to have more clarity and consistency – and one way of doing that is to have fewer agencies."
Unilever has also reduced the amount of creative work it produces by 30%. Through a tool it built in-house to measure creative fatigue, the company found that 60% of its ads weren't online long enough for consumers to even see them.
"We were putting those assets online and whisking them off before they had time to embed," Weed said. "If we're producing fewer assets, we'll have more speed."
Cutting creative costs also cuts agency fees by around 30%.
In addition to Celta, Unilever has begun partnering directly with tech platforms like Amazon, Facebook, Google and Snap. The scale and pervasiveness of these platforms in the marketing ecosystem make it easier to box the agency out.
"The nature of big digital companies and their scale [means] we can have meaningful relationships with them," Weed said. "It wouldn't have been possible to have the same depth of relationship with [TV networks]."
But as processes change, keeping pace is tough.
"Some companies have moved media buying into procurement, and they're buying it like you would buy soil or any raw material," Weed said. "It's moving and changing so much, you really have to keep up with it. That can be challenging."
And agencies that don't bring value – whether that's buying power, great creative or access to data – will get squeezed out.
"Of course, we're going to continue to work with WPP, Omnicom, Publicis and IPG, but there are a group of agencies in the middle that don't have any added distinction," Weed said. "As far as I'm concerned, I'll pick and choose and go wherever's best."
James Hercher contributed.
Vroom's CMO Is Betting That The Pandemic Will Lift Ecommerce Auto Sales


Called "disgraceful," "third-rate," and "not nice" by Donald Trump, NBC News correspondent Katy Tur reported on—and took flak from—the most captivating and volatile presidential candidate in American history.
Katy Tur lived out of a suitcase for a year and a half, following Trump around the country, powered by packets of peanut butter and kept clean with dry shampoo. She visited forty states with the candidate, made more than 3,800 live television reports, and tried to endure a gazillion loops of Elton John's "Tiny Dancer"—a Trump rally playlist staple.
Could not put it down. Wonderful writing and view of the campaign trail along with personal stories thrown in.
Disclosure: I've done work with MSNBC and indirectly with Katy Tur (we don't know each other). Her book is not only a well-documented, fact-based chronicle of political history, but also a fun look at the wilder days of L.A. TV and radio news, which she literally grew up around. She shares a good deal of her personal experiences dealing with monumental change in her career and life, just as Washington began to face some monumental change of its own. A delight to read from cover to cover.
Not what I was expecting. Not much political analysis. Read Hillary's book. Far more insightful.
Am so weary of seeing or hearing about DJT, but really loved spending time with this book. It is satisfying in every way and utterly engaging. Perfectly structured, a most unique perspective, and absolutely everything you want to know. Katy Tur is my new hero—scrappy, shrewd, ambitious, self-revealing and grounded. I appreciated her on the trail, her look, her voice, her demeanor, and this book fills in everything behind the scenes. The chapter on her parents is gold, as are the gracious acknowledgments at the end.
Refreshing that the author is so honest about her disdain for everything American. The author is very shallow and out of touch with the average americans that she looks down on. "...after a Trump campaign event, my cameraman and I felt threatened at a Panera's Bread, it seemed that everyone was looking at us. We ran out as fast as we could and headed back to NYC, abandoning our barely touched salads." Tur cries heartbrokenly when NBC execs suggest that she move back to the U.S. to cover the campaign (she had been commuting from London for months).
Wonder if this Author was a Clinton fan. Perhaps she should have followed the underside looking for dirt on any other candidate. If she dug deep enough she would find even more unbelievable filth. Politics is a dirty business biased reporting with agendas is almost as dirty. This is a book of hate by the left...just another example.


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Exclusively rent our boat and enjoy a wonderful day at sea.
See a one-of-a-kind sunset and witness how the sun hugs the coast of Menorca.


With the long, hot days of summer nearly here, it's only natural that you are planning how your outdoor adventures can supplement your Instagram account. Before you resign yourself to joining the hordes of people vying for selfie space near Siwash Rock, try taking a photo with a giant jelly bean.
Vancouver Biennale is a bi-annual public art exhibition that celebrates international artists through sculpture, new media, and performance works in public spaces. The first exhibit in 1998 was a collaboration with the Vancouver Park Board and brought international sculpture to English Bay for four months. It was so well received that the Vancouver Biennale was established as a non-profit charitable organization. Subsequent exhibitions occurred in 2005-2007, 2009-2011, and 2014-2016. To date, Vancouver Biennale has featured 91 outdoor sculpture and new media works throughout Metro Vancouver by 78 artists from 15 countries and 4 continents.
Some of the sculptures from the exhibitions have remained in Vancouver as Legacy Works, such as the A-maze-ing Laughter sculptures at Morton Park, and Echoes, the 16 stainless steel chairs at Kitsilano Beach. Other works are only here until the end of this exhibition, such as Love Your Beans at Charleston Park (the giant jelly beans) and Trans Am Totem (the scrap-metal cars on the Cedar tree) at Quebec Street and 217.5 Arc x 13 (sometimes referred to as the ship hull) at Sunset Beach.


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Berlin-Tempelhof   est un quartier de Berlin, faisant partie de l'arrondissement de Tempelhof-Schöneberg. Jusqu'à la réforme de l'administration de , il constituait l'ancien district de Tempelhof, réunissant des quartiers plus petits tels que Mariendorf, Marienfelde, Lichtenrade et Tempelhof. Pendant la séparation de la ville, ce district faisait alors partie de Berlin-Ouest. Par cette réforme, il fusionna avec le district de Schöneberg pour former l'arrondissement actuel.

Le nom de Tempelhof (« cour au Temple ») vient de l'ordre du Temple.

Population
Le quartier comptait  habitants le  selon le registre des déclarations domiciliaires, c'est-à-dire  hab./km.

Lieux
 ufaFabrik
 Aéroport de Berlin-Tempelhof
 Platz der Luftbrücke

Villes jumelées
  Amstelveen (Pays-Bas), depuis
  Werra-Meißner-Kreis (Allemagne), depuis
  arrondissement de Paderborn (Allemagne), depuis
  Bad Kreuznach (Allemagne), depuis
  Ahlen (Allemagne), depuis
  Penzberg (Allemagne), depuis
  Wuppertal (Allemagne), depuis
  Nahariya (Israël), depuis
  Teltow (Allemagne), depuis
  Koszalin (Pologne), depuis
  Charleston, Caroline du Sud, États-Unis.
  Charenton-le-Pont (France),

Notes et références

Liens externes
 Tempelhof-Schöneberg
 Liens divers sur Berlin-Tempelhof

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


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April 7 – Day 170 – Selections are Slim, Vol. III
No Comments on April 7 – Day 170 – Selections are Slim, Vol. III
Here's tonight's listings.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Montréal Canadiens – 7:30 p.m. eastern – NBCSN
Hawaii Five-0 – 9 p.m. eastern – CBS
Blue Bloods – 10 p.m. eastern – CBS
Have you realized when I make this joke (not just today, but all season) just how many of those shows are on CBS? They crank out some good TV.
*This post not sponsored by Columbia Broadcasting System*
This will be only Tampa Bay's fifth time being featured in the Game of the Day, while Montréal is making its 19th appearance. Within the DtFR series, the teams have 2-1-1 and 11-5-2 records, respectively.
By going on the road to the Air Canada Centre and beating current wild card Toronto 4-1 yesterday, the 40-30-10 Bolts amazingly still have playoff life. No matter the injuries and no matter the goaltending struggles, they've continued to find ways to get the job done.
If I asked you to name the best offense in the NHL since March 23, I'd assume you'd give me an answer like Washington or the Predators. While both are good guesses, one attack has been better: the Lightning's.
Tampa has struck 29 goals in the past 16 days for a 3.625 goals-per-game average. That impressive scoring ability has propelled the Bolts to a 6-1-1 record and within three points of eighth-place in the East. They may still need the Leafs to lose out, but the fact that there's still a chance to dance is reason enough for the surge.
Regardless of how daunting or unpredictable a task playoff qualification is, Tampa doesn't have to look far for inspiration. Only a season ago, Philadelphia climbed from fourth-worst in the Eastern Conference at the All-Star Break into the second wild card.
Though Nikita Kucherov has headed the Lightning's offense throughout this season during Steven Stamkos' absence, it has been Ondrej Palat and his league-leading 13 points leading the Bolts' attack in the past eight games. He closed March on a six-game point streak and already has two multi-point games this month.
Playing left wing on Tampa's top line, Palat is very adept at passing the puck. This has remained the case during his recent scoring spurt, as he's set up fellow wing Kucherov for five tallies, the highest mark on the team since late-March.
Tampa has been especially deadly on the power play. as it has converted 38.1% of opponents' penalties into tallies – the third-best mark in the NHL since March 23.
The man behind this surge is neither Kucherov nor Palat, but defenseman Victor Hedman – just as it's been all year. Of his season-total 33 power play points, six have been struck in the past two weeks. All of those have been assists to a stellar first PP unit that includes Jonathan Drouin, Kucherov and Palat; each of whom has buried two man-advantage tallies since late-March.
Maybe the most significant improvement during this late-season run has been Tampa's penalty kill. On the season, the Bolts have only successfully defended 81% of their infractions, which is tied for 13th-best in the league. Lately, that kill rate is up to 85.7%, which ties for ninth-best in the NHL. 21-17-7 Andrei Vasilevskiy has been absolutely spectacular over this run, as his .935 shorthanded save percentage ties for third-best in the NHL since March 23 among netminders with at least five games played.
While one team is fighting for its playoff life, the other has been sitting around with nothing to play for since Monday night. That was when 46-25-9 Montréal beat the Panthers to clinch the Atlantic Division.
Montréal's overall defensive effort this season has been spectacular, and that's been especially true since March 25. Over the past six games, the Habs have allowed only eight tallies, and that's led them to a 5-1-0 record that ties for fifth-best in the league in that time.
Of course, that all starts with 37-19-5 Carey Price, who's been in net for this entire run except for the division-clincher in Florida. He's posted a .951 save percentage and 1.4 GAA over the past two weeks, which is the sixth and fifth-best marks, respectively, among the 42 goalies with at least three appearances since March 25.
Maybe even more impressive than Price's effort has been that of his blueline. Co-led by Nathan Beaulieu and Andrei Markov and their 11 shot blocks apiece, the Canadiens' defense has allowed only 175 shots to reach its goaltender since late-March, the second-lowest total in the NHL.
If there's three indicators to a strong defensive club, Montréal has them all. The goaltender? Solid. The defense? Excellent. The penalty kill? Unstoppable, at least of late. The Canadiens PK has not allowed a power play goal in its past six games, thanks in large part to Alexei Emelin's three shorthanded shot blocks.
That penalty kill will face a stiff test this evening, and may prove to be the deciding factor in this game. Of course, predicting anything about Montréal is difficult since it has nothing to play for. Head coach Claude Julien could take advantage of the fact that the Lightning are treating this like a playoff game to give his club a "playoff practice" of sorts, or he could keep his best players off the ice to keep them safe from a team willing to do anything for a win.
Tonight's game is the final contest of the four-game regular season series between these clubs. They last met six days ago in Tampa, where Price led the Habs to a 2-1 overtime victory over the Bolts. That victory extended Montréal's record against the Lightning to 2-0-1 this year.
Some players to keep an eye on in tonight's game include Montréal's Max Pacioretty (35 goals [tied for seventh-most in the league]) and Price (2.2 GAA [fifth-best in the NHL] on a .924 save percentage for 37 wins [both tied for fifth-best in the league]) & Tampa Bay's Peter Budaj (seven shutouts [tied for third-most in the NHL] and a 2.18 GAA [fourth-best in the league]), Hedman (55 assists [tied for third-most in the NHL]) and Kucherov (39 goals [tied for second-most in the league] for 82 points [sixth-most in the NHL]).
This is a tough game to predict since we have no idea what Julien will do. Due to that I offer my pick to win this way: if the Habs play this game to win, I believe they can do just that. If not, Tampa should have no trouble finding two points.
Hockey Birthday:
Pascal Dupuis (1979-) – The left winger enjoyed 871 games over 14 NHL seasons before being forced to retire last December due to blood clots. He was most known for his nine seasons with the Penguins, playing in 452 games and twice hoisting the Stanley Cup.
Between Second Star of the Game Oscar Klefbom's four-point night and First Star Milan Lucic's hat trick, the Oilers were able to best San Jose 4-2 in yesterday's DtFR Game of the Day to all but lock up home ice in the first round of the playoffs.
The Sharks were actually the first club to score, as Joel Ward (David Schlemko and Marc-Edouard Vlasic) scored off a deflection at the 6:08 mark of the first period. It was the lone tally of the frame.
Third Star Connor McDavid (Klefbom and Adam Larsson) pulled the Oil back even 4:40 into the second period, but Edmonton couldn't maintain a tied game into the second intermission. Brent Burns (Tomas Hertl) was the cause of that, as he scored a wrist shot with 7:30 remaining in the period.
I assume you've quickly realized that Lucic dominated the third period. He was most imposing in the first half of the frame, as he's scored two of his tallies before eight minutes had ticked off the clock. His first tally, assisted by Klefbom and McDavid, was a power play deflection 4:26 into the third period to tie the game. 3:31 later, Klefbom and Jordan Eberle assisted him to another goal, a wrister that proved to be the game-winner. He added on his own insurance marker with 3:29 remaining in regulation on a power play wrister.
Even more than the offense, what might have been most impressive about Edmonton's play is the fact that the blueline yielded exactly five shots per period to reach Cam Talbot. He saved 13 of them (86.7%) for the victory, leaving the loss to Martin Jones, who saved 28-of-32 (87.5%).
A road victory is important in the DtFR Game of the Day series, as it means the visitors have not lost the season series. The 87-60-25 home teams lead the visitors by five points with three days remaining on the schedule.
Tags Alexei Emelin, Andrei Markov, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Beaulieu, Bolts, Budaj, Canadiens, Carey Price, Claude Julien, Connor Keith, Drouin, Dupuis, Emelin, Game of the Day, Habs, Hedman, Jonathan Drouin, Julien, Kucherov, Lightning, Markov, Max Pacioretty, Montréal Canadiens, Montréal Habs, Montreal, Nathan Beaulieu, Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat, Pacioretty, Palat, Pascal Dupuis, Penguins, Pens, Peter Budaj, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh Penguins, Pittsburgh Pens, Price, Stamkos, Steven Stamkos, Tampa, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay Bolts, Tampa Bay Lightning, Tampa Bolts, Tampa Lightning, Vasilevskiy, Victor Hedman
← April 6 – Day 169 – Pacific pandemonium → Down the Frozen River Podcast #54- Master Predictor


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Q: gnu.io.NoSuchPortException is occuring while executing the program
Jar version = RXTX-2.2pre1    native lib Version = RXTX-2.1-7
  gnu.io.NoSuchPortException    at
  gnu.io.CommPortIdentifier.getPortIdentifier(CommPortIdentifier.java:269)

The above exception is coming while executing the below code, where portName is "COM1":
CommPortIdentifier portIdentifier = CommPortIdentifier.getPortIdentifier(portName);

Please help me to fix the problem.

A: From the RXTX NoSuchPortException source: "The requested Port does not exist"
This also seems to happen if RXTX is not correctly installed. See HERE

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


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Songbird (bra: Isolados: Medo Invisível) é um filme americano de suspense romântico e ficção científica baseado na pandemia do COVID-19 e dirigido por Adam Mason, que co-escreveu o roteiro com Simon Boyes, e produzido por Michael Bay, Adam Goodman, Andrew Sugerman e Eben Davidson. O filme é estrelado por KJ Apa, Sofia Carson, Craig Robinson, Bradley Whitford, Peter Stormare, Alexandra Daddario, Paul Walter Hauser e Demi Moore.

O filme foi lançado por vídeo sob demanda em 11 de dezembro de 2020 pela STXfilms.

Premissa
Durante um confinamento pandêmico, um jovem deve superar a lei marcial, vigilantes assassinos e uma família poderosa e bem conectada, para se reunir com seu amor.

Elenco
 KJ Apa como Nico
 Sofia Carson como Sara
 Craig Robinson
 Peter Stormare
 Alexandra Daddario
 Demi Moore como Piper Griffin
 Paul Walter Hauser
 Bradley Whitford
 Ethan Josh Lee como Giffords
 Lia McHugh como Emma Griffin
 Michole Briana White como Alice

Produção
Em 19 de maio de 2020, foi relatado que Michael Bay, Adam Goodman e Eben Davidson produziriam um filme sobre a pandemia de COVID-19 em andamento, intitulado Songbird. Adam Mason, que co-escreveu o roteiro com Simon Boyes, foi escalado para dirigir.

Em junho de 2020, Demi Moore, Craig Robinson, Peter Stormare e Paul Walter Hauser foram escalados. Em julho, Bradley Whitford, Jenna Ortega, KJ Apa e Sofia Carson se juntaram ao elenco.

O elenco foi treinado remotamente na preparação para a filmagem.

Filmagens
A produção principal começou em 8 de julho de 2020, em Los Angeles, Califórnia. As gravações foram inicialmente interrompidas por SAG-AFTRA, que concedeu a permissão de produção para prosseguir um dia depois. O filme foi finalizado em 3 de agosto de 2020.

Lançamento
Em agosto de 2020, a STX Entertainment adquiriu os direitos de distribuição do filme.

A crítica e o público reagiram mal ao trailer do filme, com críticas direcionadas à produção e ao momento de lançamento devido à pandemia de COVID-19 em curso, bem como à romantização do tema; comparando-o desfavoravelmente com Romeu e Julieta.

O filme foi lançado em 11 de dezembro de 2020.

Recepção

No site do agregador de resenhas Rotten Tomatoes, o filme tem uma classificação de aprovação de 16% com base em 19 resenhas, com uma classificação média de 3,5/10. No Metacritic, o filme tem uma pontuação média ponderada de 31 de 100, com base em seis críticos, indicando "críticas geralmente desfavoráveis".

Alonso Duralde, do TheWrap, escreveu "Não é inerentemente errado usar uma tragédia atual como ponto de partida de um filme de gênero, mas qualquer cineasta que decida fazer isso deve criar algo provocativo ou interessante ou pelo menos competente para justificá-lo." Escrevendo para o IndieWire, David Ehrlich deu ao filme um "D" e disse: "Apesar de todo o seu apelo enigmático, ''Songbird'¿ é ruim o suficiente para que toda a sua vizinhança seja capaz de sentir o cheiro dele transmitindo pela sua TV, e fica pior mais rápido do que seu nariz pode se ajustar ao fedor."

Filmes de ficção científica dos Estados Unidos
Filmes de suspense dos Estados Unidos
Filmes de ficção científica da década de 2020
Filmes de suspense da década de 2020
Filmes ambientados em 2024
Filmes em língua inglesa
Filmes ambientados em Los Angeles
Filmes gravados em Los Angeles
Filmes sobre a pandemia de COVID-19
Filmes da Platinum Dunes


Hey I have a 97 bayou 300 2x4 (klf300b) that i bought for 1000 last June and sunk another 1000 into it already. When i went to look at it, the seller had warmed it up before hand (he was riding it when I got there). it ran good so i bought it and took it home that evening... next morning it wouldn't hardly start. I discovered the carb was clogged, there was chunks of rust in the fuel valve, the choke lever was missing and other things. I have since cleaned the carb and replaced the fuel valve and gas lines and cleaned out the gas tank and cap.
Enough background on it, the problem is this: It floods if i push it past half throttle in 4th and 5th gear even going downhill and shifting correctly. It also has to idle and warm up when you first start it which is really annoying now that its cold... It also smokes blue smoke for about 15 seconds when started cold- does not smoke at all once warm but the exhaust still smells like burnt metal. A friend told me that it didn't have enough compression. I also found out that the valves are a common cause for low compression on Kawasakis.. I have never adjusted valves before- the most I've ever got into a engine was a head gasket on a riding mower so I'm new to this. My goal is to get this bike running and starting cold like a top- should i tear down and rebuild the top end? What should i try first? I tore the carb apart and rebuilt it and fiddled with the air screw and nothing changed. I also ordered a compression test kit that should be coming in soon.
Well. Blue smoke is burning oil. Could be bad seals. Flooding is a float issue adjust to spec.
Welcome to Quadcrazy! Nice looking bike. I'm not sure how mechanically inclined you are but if so then I would keep the bike! My guess is since you see blue smoke it's most likely bad valve seals if the smoke goes away after it's been running. It's a valve seal kit you can buy and install. If your not familiar then we can help as well as you tube. If the blue smoke is constant then maybe a piston and rings may be in order.
As far as the carb goes and if someone had tinkered with it before then my guess is the needle on the carburetor is set wrong. This can be adjusted very easily by following the throttle cable down to the carburetor and unscrewing the slide from the carburetor and making the adjustment on the needle.
I have cleaned and inspected the carb thoroughly three times now- the float is not sticking or anything, and its not adjustable to my knowledge.. correct me if im wrong tho.
You are not wrong just not aware. I have attached a pic for you to see. This is an adjustment to the needle hight inside the carb. To high the carb will result in too much fuel being delivered. So take a look and see. Maybe a long shot but def worth looking into. Put the clip at the second to last high spot on the needle and try that. Most common spot is in the middle or second to top. Also Manley sure all the meats are clean. After that I would go with a fresh plug and check the spark. Just to be sure it's a good clean spark.
Can you send a link to amizon or ebay for the valve kit? I'd rather not get the wrong parts..
All the jets are clean- I removed everything I could and cleaned everything with carb cleaner. I will get another sp soon to make sure that works.
Carb cleaner is great but sometime you have to run a small wire through the jets to be sure they are clear. I also like to blow air through the jets to be sure they are clear.
I like to use a piece of wire from a bicycle brake cable, one strand of that. There are also small brush kits for cleaning carburetors on amazon as well.
* Topic moved to Kawasaki ATV forum and added ATV info and issue to topic title.
Thanks, that's a lot better price than the rebuild kit I looking at for $140. Thanks.
So, I will check the compression, replace the sp, and get this kit for the valves. I will attach a picture of my carb- It doesn't look like the one the YouTube vid..maybe the former owner put in the wrong carb? I dunno..
It's very possible it's a cheap aftermarket carb. Is there a name on the carb ? A pic would be great.
Also keep in mind that you will need a valve spring removal tool to take out the seals.
Its cheap enough but not a tool we all use that often thank god !
I will try and get a picture of the carb today.
The last pic is an identical carb on ebay.
It's posable that it's an aftermarket but I can't be 100%. But by the looks I would say yes. Hears my issue with the aftermarket if it is one. I've purchased one before and put it on my Polaris 90. Bike fired right up and ran good for the first 3/4 throttle. After that it was a hot mess. So I picked up a used factory carb and rebuilt it and put it in the bike. It ran great. I took the cheaper one apart to see what was going on and found nothing!!!! I put it back on the bike to see how it performed and the same thing. Go figure. Not quite sure what's what but it was def someplace in that carb causing a problem. Maybe the casting when made but not sure. I am a big fan of oem replacements. Just the way it is. I would try to locate a used factory carb, rebuild and put that on so you can put that end to rest. As far as valve seals.... that should stop the burn off you are getting once replaced.
I will try to find a used stock carb. Also my compression test kit hasn't come in yet but when it does, I'll give you guys an update of what the compression's running.
Loop the carb and all the used/new carbs look exactly like my current carb. And all of them are at least $75. Should I just eat this or what? There doesnt look to be ANY difference between the oem carb, the stock used carbs, and my carb.
That's the thing with the cheap aftermarket carbs. They look identical and appear to be spot on. I'm not saying not to go ahead and try it but I've just had no luck with them. I like using the oem carbs.
Def curious of the compression reading when you take it.
I've used the knock off brands that looked oem and they were junk. For the extra money for oem. You can't go wrong.
ok. And heres the parts diagram for the carb from kawasaki.com. https://www.kawasaki.com/Parts/PartsDiagram/18411/1997/KLF300-B10 I still dont see the what the youtube vid was talking about...?
here is an oem carb for your bike on eBay. &89 bucks.
I agree 100% with @06kfx440 on the cheap aftermarket carbs.
That's a great diagram btw. Typical vacuum actuated carb. Great for rebuilding help.
ok i ordered it, a valve seal kit, and a sp.
Awesome I bet you can't wait to get started on the seals! If you look at one of my older posts I tore down my bayou 400 and did the valve seals. They were probably fine but since the head was off i figured might as well do them. Plus the seals came with the gasket kit anyway. I should have bought the valve compressor tool but wound up making one.
Super important is the timing! Make sure your at TDC and the "T" mark on the fly wheel and the timing marks are where they belong on the top end pryor to removal and dont rotate the crank during this process If possible. You can always put it back if it happens but I like to leave it right where I took it off. Also take a few pics during just in case you need to take a look back.
Valve cover bolts are all different lengths so number them with a sharpie and tape.
When reassembling use plenty of lube/grease on the lobes and moving parts to avoid friction during the initial restart.
After reasembly just spin the motor a few times without the spark plug just to make sure everything is smooth and oil pumps up to the head.
I flirted with the idea of buying a cheap aftermarket chinese carb. In the end I just bought a carb kit. Let the carb sit in the cleaner bucket for a couple of days, cleaned it up and installed the kit. Runs great now except for the electrical gremlin I need to chase down.
Have also Jumped the black wires still no crank.
relay does click when key turned on and off.
I know the kill switch is bad and all testing was done with it disconnected.
I did connect it for a moment just to see if it cranked and it did not.


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Aspergillus sojae är en svampart som beskrevs av Sakag. & K. Yamada ex Murak. 1971. Aspergillus sojae ingår i släktet Aspergillus och familjen Trichocomaceae.   Inga underarter finns listade i Catalogue of Life.

Källor

Sporsäcksvampar
sojae


Over the years, I have discovered that modern minds have trouble applying the classical terms of Truth, Beauty, and Goodness to the hard practicalities of life. In order to make these ideas more accessible, I have chosen to supplement them with the reasonably parallel—and more action-related—terms Integrity, Excellence, and Caring. While we cannot see or examine a MetaValue, we can detect its presence and influence in the same way Dr. Maslow did. When he observed a Self-Actualizer living a life of remarkable Integrity, he deducted that the MetaValue of Truth was influencing that life. When he detected Excellence, he concluded that this was an expression of the MetaValue of Beauty. A Caring individual is one expressing the MetaValue of Goodness. The terms Integrity, Excellence, and Caring represent the MetaValues of Truth, Beauty, and Goodness made visible through action.
MetaValues are not something someone created; they are realities that were discovered. The best evidence for this is the fact that all normal people, regardless of race, religion, or culture, share and recognize MetaValues on some level. I learned that even the most materialistic business people, perplexed by the challenge of applying MetaValues to their work, readily respond when asked, "Would you hire an associate you knew to be lacking in Integrity? How about one who was uncaring and indifferent about his fellow workers, customers, and the community in general? Would you want to employ people who could not be motivated to strive for high levels of Excellence in their work?" The answers to these questions are so obvious because MetaValues are universal realities that transcend cultures and the barriers between science, philosophy, and religion.