text:
Consumers Are Too Giddy When It Comes to Borrowing
Danielle DiMartino Booth
Feb 14 2017, 8:46 PM Feb 15 2017, 6:26 PM February 14 2017, 8:46 PM February 15 2017, 6:26 PM
(Bloomberg View) -- Is there such a thing as being too happy?Ronald Reagan was president the last time Americans were as overwhelmingly optimistic about the prospects for jobs. The latest University of Michigan survey on households' expectations for unemployment declines in the next 12 months came in at 33 percent, matching January for the highest level since 1984, when it was 35 percent. What could be wrong with that?History tells u...
(Bloomberg View) -- Is there such a thing as being too happy?
Ronald Reagan was president the last time Americans were as overwhelmingly optimistic about the prospects for jobs. The latest University of Michigan survey on households' expectations for unemployment declines in the next 12 months came in at 33 percent, matching January for the highest level since 1984, when it was 35 percent. What could be wrong with that?
History tells us that bubbles in optimism can be dangerous for the economy. For starters, an unemployment rate with a "three-handle" that is implied by the Michigan survey isn't even in the same zip code as the Federal Reserve's forecast for this year or next. The bottom of its 2018 range is 4.2 percent. Any notion of a gradual path of interest-rate increases would be dashed. The result would likely be an inversion of the yield curve -- which has historically preceded recessions -- and a weaker stock market.
The hard data have for some time been broadcasting what's to come. The costs of higher education, housing and car prices have risen so much that households have had to stretch to qualify for a mortgage or make payments that are in line with the size of their paychecks.
While it's true that "only" 11.1 percent of the $1.4 trillion in outstanding student loans are delinquent, as has been the case for four years running, fewer than half of all undergraduates are paying down their debt. The remaining are either delinquent or have asked for relief in one of two forms: temporary payment deferment or a payment plan gauged off their income level. A recent report from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. noted that, "high delinquencies will continue to constrain the ability of young households to purchase and finance homes on a forward basis."
Many of these "constrained" borrowers have turned to Federal Housing Administration loans. FHA lending has been running at two to three times its pre-crisis level of 5 percent of loan volume. The data reveal that some of these borrowers have already begun to default. As of October, more than 4 percent of the $1 trillion in FHA loans were 90 days or more in arrears.
Distress is markedly higher among FHA loans for obvious reasons. The government-backed debt is the only source of mortgage availability for low-down-payment, subprime borrowers at a time when prices are rising relentlessly. A recent report from Black Knight Financial Services finds that a median-priced home now requires 22.2 percent of median income to make the necessary monthly principal and interest payments. Housing is about the least affordable it has been since 2010.
Subprime auto lending is a booming business. Of the $1 trillion in all such loans outstanding, some $300 billion are considered non-prime. According to S&P Global Ratings, subprime auto loans that are 60 days or more delinquent rose to 4.76 percent in November, almost double 2011's rate. Net losses of 8.48 percent are also almost double that of five years ago.
While alarming, the stress isn't what it was at its worst in the dark days of 2009. It's critical to bear in mind that the subprime auto market hinges on used car lending. It's telling that recovery rates are nosediving, with subprime loan balances recovering just 33.85 percent in November after factoring in payments received and what a car gets at auction. Almost 4 million cars are coming off leases in 2017, about 1 million more than in 2015.
Reports are emerging that subprime originations have begun to fall, leaving many of the smaller players chasing after the same borrowers who haven't been approved by major lenders. In essence, they are essentially fighting over scraps, according to one industry expert.
All of this lending wouldn't be possible if not for a mushrooming market for bonds backed by consumer loans, providing the financing that income gains failed to cover.
Then there's credit card debt, which has been growing at an average of $5 billion a month since November 2015. Simple math dictates that outstanding balances will surpass the $1 trillion mark this month. While many applaud households' increased usage of their credit cards as validation of their expected income gains, the five-month low in the saving rate suggests otherwise. In fact, inflation-adjusted credit card borrowing has outpaced that of real income growth since November 2015.
Add it up and consumer credit excluding mortgage debt is fast approaching 20 percent of gross domestic product, a record high and a full two percentage points above where it peaked prior to the onset of the last recession.
Lenders are getting nervous. According to the Fed's latest senior loan officer survey, banks tightened lending standards for credit cards for the first time since 2010. Tighter standards were also reported for auto loans as lenders look to trim maturities, demand higher down payments and raise the floor on credit scores.
About 6.5 million homes have been lost to foreclosure since the economy went into its last recession, in 2008. Many economists dismiss the gravity of the 6 million auto borrowers who are at least 90 days late on their payments. Consider the other types of debt that have been tapped to make ends meet, and at some point, the trillions of dollars of at-risk household debt starts to add up. Is the happiness bubble also about to burst?
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former adviser to the president of the Dallas Fed, is the author of "Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve Is Bad for America" (Portfolio: February 2017). She founded Money Strong LLC, a consulting firm.
To contact the author of this story: Danielle DiMartino Booth at Danielle@dimartinobooth.com.
For more columns from Bloomberg View, visit http://www.bloomberg.com/view.
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With the opening of the Hsiao Laboratories in 2012, Fairchild launched a new era of community-based scientific research. A complex of four themed spaces with large windows to the outside, the Hsiao Laboratories are entirely visible to the public. The Laboratories have become an important component of the Fairchild visitor experience, and have become a venue for students and volunteers to participate in many kinds of research. We regularly host graduate students, college students, high school students and volunteers from throughout the community to join us in our work. All of our current research projects were planned with community participation in mind.
Visible from within The Clinton Family Conservatory, the Jason Vollmer Metamorphosis Lab processes incoming pupae from butterfly farms throughout the world. Volunteers and students assist with the preparation of pupae for display. They monitor pupae through the hatching process and release the adult butterflies into the exhibit. With a large number of poorly known tropical butterfly species in our facility, we are able to collect previously unrecorded data on their growth and development.
The Micropropagation Lab is equipped for propagating and growing plants under sterile conditions, including plant tissue culture (cloning) and orchid seed germination. It is the main location for the laboratory components of the Million Orchid Project, supporting the propagation and development of eight species of rare South Florida orchids. The Micropropagation Lab is also used for developing and testing the orchid propagation techniques we are deploying within K-12 science classrooms throughout South Florida.
The Baddour DNA Laboratory is a working and teaching space focused on plant genetic studies. Current projects include research on the diversity of mangos and related Southeast Asian fruit crops, the genetics of Caribbean palms on the brink of extinction, the genetics of rare orchids in South Florida, and the evolution of plants within tropical island systems.
The Imaging Laboratory includes high-powered light microscopes and digital photography equipment for botanical and entomological study. The Imaging Lab is used for teaching and research on plant anatomy, plant cytology, and plant and insect micromorphology. It is the only laboratory of its kind in South Florida.


4 Blueberry and maple flavour hot cross buns with currants, blueberries, maple syrup and sweetened dried blueberries.
Packed with currants, blueberries and sweet Canadian maple syrup.
INGREDIENTS: Wheat Flour [Wheat Flour, Calcium Carbonate, Iron, Niacin, Thiamin], Water, Currants (13%), Blueberries (12%), Maple Syrup (3.5%), Butter (Milk), Sweetened Dried Blueberries (2.0%) [Blueberries, Sugar, Sunflower Oil], Yeast, Emulsifiers (Mono- and Di-Glycerides of Fatty Acids, Mono- and Di-Acetyl Tartaric Acid Esters of Mono- and Di-Glycerides of Fatty Acids), Salt, Wheat Gluten, Potato Dextrin, Flavouring, Mixed Spice, Rapeseed Oil, Palm Oil, Flour Treatment Agent (Ascorbic Acid).
For allergens, including cereals containing gluten, see ingredients in bold. Also, may contain peanuts, nuts, sesame seeds, egg and soya.


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CNBC's Jim Cramer on Monday suggested that President Donald Trump stop targeting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and let the chief carry out his current monetary policy plan.
In a Sunday tweet on, Trump doubled down, again, on his criticism of Powell in the wake of the Federal Open Market Committee's move to raise the benchmark funds rate to a range of 2.25% to 2.5% last December.
"Memo to the President: Powell stopped tightening, he's doing what you want — take yes for an answer," the "Mad Money" host said.
The Fed put a hold on rate increases in part because of slowing growth in the global economy. As investors and analysts worry that a recession could be looming, Cramer said he is not convinced.
As the economy remains relatively healthy, he said there are a number of warning signals that would hold the Federal Reserve back from being hawkish again in the near future.
Investors should factor the Amazon effect into their stock-picking homework because the company is a "Death Star" that could disrupt any industry it decides to set its gaze on, Cramer said.
"Any company with any kind of consumer product could potentially end up in their crosshairs, and that's a very dangerous place to be," the "Mad Money" host said.
The Amazon effect continues to have a daunting impact on most brick-and-mortar retailers, and the entertainment industry could be next in its path. Spotify has become a dominant name in the audio world by offering both free, ad-supported and subscription models for streaming music. It is also making a mark in the exceedingly popular podcasts segment.
But shares of the streaming platform ended Monday down 4.4% on news that Amazon could release a free music streaming service on its Echo device as soon as next week.
Conagra Foods is dishing out just what young consumers want, according to CEO Sean Connolly. Connolly explained to Cramer how the company has "modernized" its products.
The agribusiness giant owns Slim Jim, Healthy Choice, and Orville Redenbacher, among other names.
"For the last four years, we've taken a large vast portfolio and we've modernized it across the board and our focus is making sure these brands resonate with young consumers, millennials," he said.
Chevron is buying Anadarko Petroleum in a $33 billion deal in cash and stocks. While the acquisition was announced Friday, Occidental Petroleum was reportedly making its own bid to buy Anadarko for north of $70 per share.
Cramer brought Chevron CEO Mike Wirth to discuss the merger and how it played out.
Disclosure: Cramer's charitable trust owns shares of Amazon.com.


Link for 1. song // https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PwsnNwizOUM"
"It is the song in the background (give it thirty seconds, before the speakers leave a silnce) I heard it during a icehockey-game a few months ago and it is driving me crazy. What is this song? Driving thorough the night? Highway to the night. Thank you s"
"It's gotta be at least pre-2010. That's all I know unfortunately."
"Help me please to find a song*"
"The Four Seasons - Autumn"


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text:
Pasargadae
Pasargadae covers the archaeological remains of the first capital of the Persian Empire, dating from the 6th century BC.
Its most important monument is the tomb of Cyrus the Great, the founder of the Achaemenid Empire who went on to conquer much of the ancient Near East, Southwest Asia, Central Asia and the Caucasus.
Pasargadae's gardens provide the earliest known example of the Persian chahar bagh, or fourfold garden design. The complex further consists of the remains of a fortress, palaces ('the royal ensemble') and a 14m high stone tower. In general, the art and architecture found at Pasargadae exemplified the Persian synthesis of various traditions, drawing on precedents from Elam, Babylon, Assyria, and ancient Egypt, with the addition of some Anatolian influences.
1 Locations 5 Reviews 24 Ratings 15 Connections 95 Visitors
Map of Pasargadae
Juha Sjoeblom
3.00 Finland - 31-Mar-20 -
Site visited December 2015. Although this first capital of Achaemenid Empire may feel dull and empty compared to Persepolis, it is still an interesting place to visit.
Getting to Pasargadae by public transport may be tricky. I guess the only way is to take a bus (probably with a bus change in Marvdasht) from Shiraz to Saadat Shahr and try to get a taxi from there. The easiest way is to hire a taxi all the way from Shiraz. It should also be reasonably priced. Fortunately I had arranged a relative of my colleague to be my chauffeur on my day trip to Persepolis and Pasargadae from Shiraz. After visiting Persepolis we stopped by Naqsh-e Rostam and Naqsh-e Rajab TWHS. By the way, I found this site quite impressive and maybe worth of inscription. After that we headed towards Pasargadae which is an hour's drive from Persepolis. It was already late afternoon when we arrived to the gates of Pasargadae. I spent about an hour and a half at the site and we left at the time of sunset.
Generally speaking there are not that much to see in Pasargadae and the site looks empty. Basically the site consists of seven structures that are scattered around the area of 1,6 hectares. The structures are both modest and low-key, not very well preserved. The distances inside the core zone are so big that it would require a lot of walking if you don't have a car. For that reason many visitors drive from place to place and there is also a shuttle bus option.
Usually a tour in Pasargadae starts from the Mausoleum of Cyrus the Great which is directly after the entrance gate. It is also the most iconic and visited structure of this WHS. There were a lot of local tourists around the mausoleum but not that much on the other places. Apparently for many this WHS is only about the mausoleum. You can notice it also by looking the photos of Pasargadae. Near the mausoleum is the Madrasseh or Mozafari Caravanserai. All what is left of the building is the facade so it is quite a quick visit. The next group of structures is one kilometre away. The remains of two royal palaces, the Palace P or Private Palace of Cyrus the Great and the Palace S or Audience Hall, are next each other and between them is the Royal Garden of Pasargadae World Heritage Site. What is left of the palaces are columns (or stumps of them) that are either standing or lying on the ground. There is not much to see in the earliest known Persian garden either, only some lines and ancient drains can be seen on the dusty ground. On the edge of the palace area is the Gate R building or Gate House which has some interesting carved images. It is the oldest known freestanding propylaeum. Near the palace group is the Zendan (Zendan-e Soleyman/Solomon's Prison) which is a exactly the same kind of building that in Naqsh-e Rostam but only a front facade is left of this building. Usually the tour ends at the citadel of Tall-e Takht (Takht-e Soleyman/Solomon's Throne) which is the furthest structure from the entrance. Basically it is a sturdy wall on top of a hill and a terrace above that. Actually my best memory from my visit is from from Tall-e Takht where I watched a great sunset above Pasargadae.
The destiny of Pasargadae is that it will be always compared to Persepolis because most of the people visit it as a side trip during the same day trip. That said, it is clear that Pasargadae can't win the competition which one is more impressive site. The historical values of Pasargadae are obvious but the experience might be lukewarm. It is worth a detour from Persepolis – if not otherwise at least for two World Heritage Sites.
Zoë Sheng
2.00 Chinese-Canadian - 26-Jan-19 -
Although the site doesn't look like it covers much more than Cyrus "the Virus" oops not the baddie of Con Air, Cyrus the Great (one day coming to a theater near you also starring John Malkovich), the short path from the entrance which is now being nicely paved will lead you to a tomb of the once former king. It isn't all too spectacular, it wasn't even busy in January although Persepolis was still pretty packed. Once I circled around the tomb and made my way back from the adjacent ruins of the caravanserai (not currently part of the tentative site of caravanserai along the silk road), I noticed the shuttle e-cars with a booth. Was there more to see further down towards the mountains? So I go online, check the review here on the site and Google map to see the Solomon's Prison among others far in the distance. I didn't care if the shuttle costs money but it sounds like a bit of a waste of time. If you want to fully explore the site I suppose you should go and see those places too. 600 seems like a lot for "just" the tomb but it is the highlight. I was happy to be on my way again after a long day of sightseeing.
3.00 UK - 21-May-16 -
Before investigating this WHS in advance of our trip in Apr 2016, I had always assumed that it consisted solely of the Tomb of Cyrus – that famous "profile" consisting of a 6 stepped ziggurat topped by a rectangular gabled chamber (making it the World's oldest "base isolated" structure according to Wiki). As such, it could surely be fitted in easily on a 1 day return outing from Shiraz together with Persepolis AND Naqsh-e Rustam? In fact the site extends to 160ha (the inscribed area of Perspolis is only 13ha) and we spent 2 hrs there, not getting back to Shiraz until 19.30 (having departed at 8.20). If you are going to do a similar day trip make sure you leave some time for Pasargadae - unless you only want a quick "turn" around the Tomb!
As you draw up to the ticket office (Entry for foreigners - 200k rials) the entry sign is accompanied by an enormous propaganda notice board proclaiming, first in English and then in Farsi, the words of Khomeini "The whole World should know that all of the problems of the Iranian nation and other nations are caused by the foreigners: by America. The Muslim nations hate the foreigners in general and America in particular". Even our driver/guide was a little embarrassed by this since it seemed so out-of-line both with the welcome we (as "foreigners"!!) had received from every Iranian we had met and also with the general direction of Iran's international relations. I have traced the statement's history to a speech made by Khomeini at Qom on Oct 26th 1964 – not exactly "recent history"! It must have been the "last straw" for the Shah, as Khomeini was exiled to Turkey on Nov 4th and would spend the next 14 years outside Iran. Now, this quotation is apparently very "famous" in the history of events leading up to the Iranian Revolution (The full speech and its background can be found here), but the interesting question about its location in 2016 outside the World Heritage Site of Pasargadae relates to the nature of "power" in contemporary Iran which has led to its being published and remaining there. Who/which organisation has thought that this propaganda sign outside a World Heritage Site is "appropriate" and has been able to hold out against others who must surely think it is not?
The Tomb of Cyrus is situated close to the entrance and seeing it isn't going to take very long. You may gain value from walking around it a few times and, perhaps, imagining the visit of Alexander the Great in 330BC when, according to legend, he paid homage to Cyrus. You may also need to wait a bit to take a photo without hordes of tourists in it! You can't actually approach the steps.
Beyond, lie the remains of what was originally the dynastic capital of the Achaemenids. Its furthest point, the fortified terrace of Tel-e Takht, is around 2.5 kms away so, if you have a car, you might as well drive there and work your way back. In all honesty there isn't a great deal "on display". The Tel is made up of enormous cyclopean stones but has little else of interest. I provide a photo from its summit, not because it is a "good" photo, but to give an indication of the overall site and the dry plain on which it is set – the Tomb of Cyrus can be seen at top left. The Palace area is mid-centre with the "Garden" to its left. This area continues left outside the photo, is only accessible on foot and takes a while to cover. The tower on the right is the so-called "Soleyman's Prison".
The area of greatest interest to us was that containing the Pasargadae element of the Persian Gardens' inscription. This is a part of the "The Royal Ensemble" containing basically the floor plans of several palaces and pavilions plus a few pillars with some carvings – and the Garden. The site plan indicated that we were indeed "in" it - but it was very difficult to see anything which looked as if it could have been a part of a "garden". There are a few stones which are said to be part of a bridge which crossed the river which, in those days, flowed through the city - but now all is dryness. Eventually we found a possible "corner" of such a garden created by 2 lines of carved stones which could have held a flowing stream as per the more modern "Persian Gardens" we were visiting around Iran. Don't expect too much of this one!
And that was about it really. One couldn't recommend going out of one's way to see the remains of the palaces etc but "that tomb" just about redeems it.
Eric Lurio
USA - 17-Jul-12 -
On our way from Shiraz to Istfahan, we stopped at the tomb of Cyrus in Parsagad. there were some bas reliefs of a guy in a fish suit and a few other minor things, the city Cyrus built there was mostly made of wood, and that all rotted away ages ago. But the tomb itself was made of stone, and because the locals claimed that it was the tomb of Solomon's mother, it had survived the vandals. I noticed that someone had left a bouquet of flowers on the stairs leading up to the entrance in tribute.
I was touched.
Oliver van Zon
Iran has many beautiful names and often places all reminiscent of past grandeurs, Pasargadae being one of them. This is a city whose influence and historical signifcance was on a par if not rivalled that of Persepolis. Today it is very different though.
With the best of intents we tried to imagine what was once there using the (well done!) signs and drawings at each site, but it was tough and beyond what we were creatively capable of. Yes, it was a dissapointment after the many hours it took us to get here. Fortunately Iran has countless other historical, natural and religious sites no to mention the local hospitality that made us rapidly forget our visit.
5.0: BH
3.5: Rodinia Ivan Rucek Carmen Maria David
3.0: Solivagant Stanislaw Warwas Juha Sjoeblom Michael anak Kenyalang Kevin247 Alexander Parsons Wojciech Fedoruk
2.5: Richard Stone Hugo Oliveira Vicente Tony H. Bernard Joseph Esposo Guerrero Dimitrios Polychronopoulos Carlo Sarion Jean Lecaillon
2.0: Zoë Sheng MoPython Chalamphol Therakul Joyce van Soest Riomussafer
1.5: Martina Ruckova
Archaeological site - Near Eastern
World Heritage Site of Pasargadae
Ideas of Empire: The "Royal Garden" at Pasargadae
Pasargadae entry in Encyclopaedia Iranica
History of Iran: Pasargadae
Roofing covers of 'winged human', palaces replaced at Pasargadae (05.07.20)
Specified roofing covers to enhance protection for Pasargadae (31.08.16)
Experts testing stones to restore Pasargadae (23.08.15)
A 10-kilometer stone wall has been unearthed north of Pasargadae historic site during the excavations of Iran-Japan joint team in Bolaghi Gorge. (14.03.07)
The site has 1 locations
The site has 15 connections
Chahar Bagh Gardens: "The first dynastic capital of the Achaemenid Empire, founded by Cyrus II, the Great". The site includes the remains of the Royal Gardens. Criterion iv states "The 'Four Gardens' type of royal ensemble, which was created in Pasargadae became a prototype for Western Asian architecture and design." (The garden is also inscribed as part of the "Persian Gardens inscription)
Mausolea: Mausoleum of Cyrus II (the Great)
'Threatened' by Dams: By the Sivand Dam
Achaemenid Empire: Pasargadae was the first dynastic capital of the Achaemenid Empire, founded by Cyrus II the Great
Individual People
King Solomon: Muslims used to believe Cyrus' Tomb belonged to King Solomon's mother
Giosafat Barbaro: Giosafat Barbaro was the first European to visit the ruins of Pasargadae, where he believed the local tradition that misidentified the tomb of Cyrus the Great as belonging to King Solomon's mother.
Zoroastrianism: Fire-temples have been found
Digitized by Iconem
Built in the 6th century BC: 546
Located in a Former Capital: Achaemenid Empire - Darius
On Banknotes: 50 rials note 1960
Foreigner prices: 30,000 Rials versus 200,000 Rials
Shiraz Hotspot: 1hr 45 mins one way by car
WHS on Other Lists
Exact locations inscribed twice (or more): Garden, also part of The Persian Garden
95 Community Members have visited.
AC Afshin Iranpour Alexander Barabanov Alexander Lehmann Alexander Parsons Ali Zingstra Atila Ege Aurelien Drilant-Abenascad BH Bernard Joseph Esposo Guerrero Bob Parda Brigitte Huber Carlo Sarion Carmen Maria David Chalamphol Therakul David Marton Dibro Dimitrios Polychronopoulos Djpatten Eric Lurio Erik Jelinek Eva Kisgyorgy Fan Yibo Fmannucci Ge zhang Haining Guan Hamid Harald T. Houqian Howe Siang Tan Hugo Oliveira Vicente Ivan Rucek Jacob Otten Jarek Pokrzywnicki Jean Lecaillon Jean-Philippe Platroz Jonas Kremer Jonathanliao Jordi Martinez Jos Schmitz Joyce van Soest Judith Tanner Juha Sjoeblom Kasienka5 Keqi Kevin Wang Kevin247 Krijn LaVale Liu tuo Liuhua Luis Filipe Gaspar MaYumin Maki Wang Marcel staron Marcin Eternauta Marcobrey Martina Ruckova Marvin B. Mauro Martino Michael anak Kenyalang Mikko Miloš Tašković MoPython Naim Y Nej153 Niall Sclater Nihal Ege Pablo Tierno Pieter Dijkshoorn Qqalexqq Richard Stone Riomussafer Rodinia Roger Ourset Roman Koeln SHIHE HUANG Sergio Arjona Sisa_p Solivagant Stanislaw Warwas Steve Newcomer Sun_jianyuan@me.com Szucs Tamas Thomas Buechler Timothy C Easton Tjark Tkinou Tony H. VforMih Werner Huber Wojciech Fedoruk Zen Zeng Zizmondka Zoë Sheng

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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The Sanskrit monosyllable represented in this pendant is pronounced aum (om).Om symbolises the Absolute - the very essence ofthe human being. The oldest and most venerated of all Hindu mantras is also employed in Buddhism and spiritual endeavour (Yoga).The Sterling silver pendant is just under 30mm wide and 25-30mm high from the top of the bail loop. The simple snake style chain ensures that the sacred symbol is the focal point of this design.


Sander enters the room looking as if he has to bend to fit in a regular sized room. We are used to tall boys, but his limbs seem to have an element of infinity to them if you were to look at them for too long they might forget to ever end. He kindly removes his shoes and joins us for a chat. It is soon evident that this boy cannot talk without the use of his hands, which wave almost uncontrollably accompanying his words.
Sander at Elite Models talks candidly, and about the fact that children say things with no agenda, and in that fact he exposes a child like way of expressing himself. Honesty walked in the door with him and we are left with a sense that anything we might ask he would answer. His slight accent lingers on words, as if the desire to express his thoughts was stronger than a language barrier. In this way he tells us about his encounters with chocolate shop man, along with his double life; one second playing with children in his day care job, the next walking down a Prada runway.
So first thing is first, what's your name?
Sander, Sander Van De Coevering. It is difficult to say in English, normally I just write it down and give it to people.
Do you bring a note pad around you?
No haha. If you want to say my name, you have to be prepared with pen and paper.
We have plenty of pens and paper so completely ready for you. What else should we know about you?
I'm 23 and I'm with Elite Models London.
How long have you been with Elite?
I came on the 6th of September this year, and got signed then.
What got you into modelling, did you just look into the mirror one day and decide?
No haha. Well, I was drinking a beer in my hometown with my sister and some friends, and this guy came up to my sister and asked if she wanted to become a model. And she was like "nah nah, go to my brother, he looks exactly like me." He then asked me and it just seemed like a good idea at the time, so I said why not. He worked at a chocolate shop near the bar I work at. He took some pictures and sent them around. I had some meetings with some agencies in Holland and did some test shoots. To begin with I thought I didn't even want to be a model, then I got signed by an agency in Amsterdam, I suppose I started to want it.
So you let a chocolate shop man decide your career?
Yes. One night I came home from a party with my boyfriend and Tony jones lives above him - now that's a coincidence! He knocked on the door asking for a cigarette, turns out there was a casting the next day so my boyfriend kicked me out of bed and pushed me to the casting. So I went and turns out I got signed.
What made you move over here?
After the Prada show, I got in contact by Elite Models in London. So I decided to work in children's day care during the summer, so I could take a month off to be a model. The original plan was to go to New York, but I ended up here first.
What was the original plan before modelling?
I graduated in February as a drama therapist, but lets face it finding a job as a drama therapist at this moment is impossible because of the recession. So my plan was to go do another study, primary teaching, but I skipped that plan and tarted working in children's day care doing this - waves arms around - the model business. I'm going to give it a year, because I don't feel like a model haha.
What are some of the funniest things that kids have said to you?
They say a lot of funny things. They have honest questions, like everything they ask is purely curiosity. They don't have second agendas. They told me I was tall and skinny,which is true.
What do you do when you're not working or modelling?
I can be very lazy and watch a lot of movies, I love movies and TV shows. I'm a real people's person, so whenever I'm home alone for an hour I always need to make social contact. If I'm surrounded by people and talking then I'll feel happy, but when I'm home alone two nights in a row I feel down.
What would you say you're most passionate about?
I'm still trying to figure that out. I'm passionate about too many things, and I think passion is a very strong word. But I am passionate about people.
Is there any advice for anyone coming in completely new to modelling?
Just take things at it is, have a backup plan. Don't get carried away, see it as a job. After seeing photos of myself from shoots I began to get really worried about how I looked and I didn't used to do that. I felt the need to look as good as the photos, which is impossible to achieve every day. Looking good isn't everything.
Take it from him, he's a model.
Interview and words by Liz Ord.


L'AmministraTuri: httpie - http for everyone!
httpie - http for everyone!
The life for a web app developer it's so difficult without a real tool for test HTTP request/response, in particular with xhr ajax near-realtime apps.
HTTPie - aitch-tee-tee-pie - (httpie.org) is an open source CLI HTTP client that will make you smile: a user-friendly curl alternative that provides a simple http command designed for painless debugging and interaction with HTTP servers, RESTful APIs, and web services.
It's available on multiplatform (Linux, Windows, MacOS X) and it's well documented.
So, what else ? Go to documentation, read all and make your http request easy!


text:
Trachys may refer to:

Trachys (plant), a genus of grass
Trachys (beetle), a genus of beetles

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


Right in the centre of Los Angeles, Gorgeous 2 Bedroom Apartments in DTLA features an outdoor swimming pool, a tennis court and a fitness centre. This apartment has a garden.
The provided apartment features 2 bedrooms, a living room, a kitchen, a dining area, and 2 bathrooms with a hot tub. A flat-screen TV is available.
The spa and wellness centre includes a sauna and an indoor pool. The apartment offers a barbecue.
L.A. Live is 1.3 km from 2 bedroom DTLA. The nearest airport is Hollywood Burbank Airport, 23 km from the accommodation.


Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and Happy New Year from theDrumDictionary!! Hope everyone had a wonderful year and an even better 2011. We're really excited here about what a year it's been for theDrumDictionary. After being released just before Christmas over a year ago, the app sold pretty steady for a few months. In February, it was a huge honor to be featured by Apple on the New and Noteworthy section of the US app store! It was an amazing chance to get the app into the hands of so many more drummers, and I was excited to continue working on updates. Unfortunately, it was a LONG time between February and when the. Next update actually came out. On top of trying to rethink and reprogram the interface to allow for many more beats, there was a whole slew of new things to plan for: first, came the announcement of the iPad, and I wanted to make theDrumDictionary universal. Then came the new iPhone 4 and the need to redo all the graphics for high resolution displays. On top of that came the iOS 4 announcement and release and the need to prepare the app for the new operating system. Needless to say, it was a big mistake to try to accommodate for all these different features in one update! Sorry to keep everybody waiting so long, but I'm really pleased with how version 2.0 turned out. Hope everyone loves the new features, and there should be plenty of new updates as we come out of the holidays. I also need to say a big welcome to so many new users in the UK, Canada and Ireland! We were so excited to see theDrumDictionary features on those app stores over Christmas! Thanks for all the great reviews and the feedback as well. Keep on drumming in 2011, and keep on eye out for some new beats and features.
Copyright © 2010-2019, Gig Bag Apps, Ryan Dillon. All rights reserved.
Apple, the Apple logo, iPhone, iPod and iPad are registered trademarks of Apple Inc. in the U.S. and/or other countries.


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BAGS, THE NEW YORK GIANTS & FISH: a simple strategy for success
Sometimes it is the tried and tested reliable formula that guarantees goal achievement. Planning ahead and taking habitual action so that you exceed your weekly and monthly targets exemplifies this brilliantly.
You may believe, like me, that your level of competence at advance preparation, is entirely task dependent, or that you also revel in thinking impulsively – and executing – fast, due to an approaching deadline. Woo hoo! Excitement! Adrenaline! However, my In the Bag strategy is more motivating and is better for brain and body health.
The earliest use of the idiom in the bag originally meant that the race was lost. Its current meaning derives from a superstition from the New York Giants baseball team during an impressive run of twenty-six wins in 1916. When still in the lead at the start of the last inning, the ballbag was carried off the field, therefore capturing the game in the bag, and the players' belief that they would not lose.
I have adapted this towards accomplishing my goal of walking 1000 boots-on daily doses of green miles this year. Each month I have walked a few more miles than the calculator informs me is required, so that I get ahead and as a result, now have an extra thirty miles walking completed in the bag. Yay!
Whilst it might not sound much more, it is motivating, as I am further along than I need to be, and this reduces stress. Brain-friendly, as it increases certainty that the goal will be achieved, there is a buffer of miles should things not go to plan, or if the weather in England is less than appealing for walking, which is likely if the current early Autumn gales and wind are anything to go by!
That saying, I am committed to the goal and walk in the rain. Elite athletes train even if they do not feel like it and during inclement weather, and this knowledge inspires me to tie my laces. When you really want to achieve a goal, the excuses and immediate discomfort pale into insignificance.
This month, what could you get in the bag which will then make the remaining months of 2020 much easier for you? #winning
If you are not yet convinced, let me tell you about some fish:
Once upon a time, three fish lived in a pond. They were close friends. One was named Plan Ahead, another was Think Fast, and the third was called Wait and See. One day they heard a fisherman say that he was going to cast his net in their pond the next day.
Plan Ahead said, "I'm swimming down the river tonight!
Think Fast said, "I'm sure that I'll come up with a plan.
Wait and See lazily said, "I just can't think about it now!"
When the fisherman cast his nets, Plan Ahead was long gone. But Think Fast and Wait and See were caught!
Think Fast quickly rolled his belly up and pretended to be dead. "Oh, this fish is no good!" said the fisherman and threw him safely back into the water. But, Wait and See ended up in the fish market.
Therefore, they say, "In times of danger, when the net is cast, plan ahead or plan to think fast!"*
* This story is from The Panchatantra, an ancient Indian collection of 84 interrelated animal fables in Sanskrit verse and prose.
Photo credits: Maria Dryfhout; Arturo Holmes / Shutterstock.com; Mike Pellini.
THE LOCKDOWN LEADER: focus on 'in group' development
THE NEXT STEP: where focusing on feelings = action


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Bird & Bird's Analysing the Future of Media Law Webinar
When: Wednesday, November 25, 2020, 2:00 PM - 4:45 PM
Bird & Bird in conjunction with the Technology Media and Telecoms Law Institute of the Centre for Commercial Law Studies, Qeen Mary University of London, are pleased to present our second annual event analysing the future of Media Law. Our keynote speaker, Mr Justice Sir Mark Warby, will present an address considering his experience of key developments in the sector during a career which led him to the Queen's Bench Division of the High Court where he established the Media And Communications List, before his recent promotion to the Court of Appeal.
Following Sir Mark Warby's address, there will be a panel discussion, chaired by Robin Callender Smith, on the future regulation of the news media sector as the IPSO/ Royal Charter dispute is being replaced by questions arising from the shift from print press to delivery via online platforms.
Welcome and introduction - Gavin Sutter, Senior Lecturer in Media Law, CCLS
Keynote address - Sir Mark Warby, Lord Justice of Appeal
Refreshment break
Chair: Dr Robin Callender Smith, Honorary Professor of Media Law, CCLS
Charlotte Dewar, Chief Executive of IPSO
Professor Paul Wragg, Professor of Media Law, University of Leeds
Closing remarks - Phil Sherrell, Partner & Head of Media, Entertainment & Sport Group, Bird & Bird
Please register above and you will be sent a Zoom link to access the event the day before it takes place.


The cases that we represent in Mount Laurel, NJ help innocent accident victims overcome financial and emotional hardships. Our personal injury lawyers are skilled in all types of cases, from medical malpractice to slip and fall accident injuries. Even if you're hurt in a major auto accident, it's in your best interest to have a lawyer on your side making sure that you're always treated fairly. We are always here to listen to your side and provide the guidance that you need to move past the unfortunate incident that has hurt you and your family.
There are a lot of scenarios that are covered by our personal injury lawyers in Delaware because we care about the rights of victims. When other people are careless or negligent to act responsibly, it can leave you dealing with consequences that you don't deserve. If our lawyers feel that the case is valid to pursue, you could obtain the compensation needed to truly overcome your emotional and physical injuries.
Although car accidents are fairly common all across the United States, these situations have the potential to cause death or permanent disabilities. If you're involved in a collision at the fault of another driver, our car accident lawyers recommend pursuing a full investigation instead of settling for the first offer. Otherwise, the insurance representatives assigned to your case could leave you without enough money to cover lost wages and medical expenses.
Slipping on a wet floor or tripping over items left in a walkway might sound like a humorous situation until it happens to you. There's nothing funny about severe head trauma, spinal injuries, torn ligaments, or broken bones caused by a serious fall. If the incident happened away from your own property, it's important that our lawyers determine if you can make a settlement claim to cover the expenses.
An accident made by a doctor or other medical professional can cause an unfortunate injury or complications with an existing illness. The accident lawyers in Delaware investigate medical malpractice cases very thoroughly to determine if an avoidable error lead to consequences for you or your family member. After a review of the evidence, we will offer advice to help you move forward with the next steps to eventually put your injury to rest.


Prolific advancements in technology make it easier for patients to learn about their doctors before setting foot inside the clinic. For physicians, this means it's imperative to have a website available for your patients.
For starters, having a website has inherent benefits and is your biggest asset for marketing to patients.
Your website affords you the opportunity to get in front of new website visitors (potential patients). Not only can you explain your practice's services and provide more background information about yourself, you can answer patient questions and supply them with valuable health-related information, a vital step in marketing to patients.
To really embrace the essence of a good medical website, it's important for you to step into your patients' shoes and view things from their perspective.
Is your website filled with medical jargon that may be hard for the average American to understand? From a patient's perspective, what information would they want to know about you – the doctor? On the website, can you clearly identify a reason why a patient should visit your practice over a competitor? Can patients find the treatment information they seek? Your website content matters.
With so much information accessible at the click of a button, the Internet has completely changed the way people shop for products and services. Now, people can compare physicians and their services within a span of 5 minutes.
What's more, patients want to build a relationship with their doctors. Thus, it is very important to build a robust online profile and include information such as your education, experience, medical views and general interests.
A key aspect to bear in mind when launching a new or redesigned website is to ensure it's accessible on all device platforms. More people are using mobile devices to research and store information. Your website should look just as good on tablets and phones as it does on a computer screen.
Most importantly, having a website opens up more channels to market to patients that you wouldn't have with traditional advertising.
Since marketing to patients is key to building your practice, it's important that you cast your marketing net on the Internet, where troves of prospective patients seek information.
A professional website will boost your online presence and enhance your reputation. Patients will be able to easily find your practice, learn more about your expertise and decide if you are the best fit for them.
High-quality pictures of your medical practice, detailed staff information and an outline of expectations for a first office visit helps the potential patient paint a picture of what your practice is really like.
As part of a strong website, content builds your website into a valuable resource. The goal here is to convert website visitors into potential patients; the best way to do this is to write articles and content with their needs in mind.
Craft content that will help them adopt better health behaviors, encourage compliance through regular checkups and answer common questions related to your practice's services.
Furthermore, it's important to include a call-to-action in your content. A call-to-action could be as simple as a button to schedule an appointment.
Your website is a central hub for information and new content. Social media is an extension of this hub, which allows your practice to be found and shared more easily. As you begin to build your web presence, don't neglect social media.
Additionally, encourage interaction from your followers; you may uncover new insights about their experience with your practice.
By running social media effectively in conjunction with a beautifully designed website that features relevant content, you will begin to build a strong online presence.
Patients expect medical practices to have an online presence. At docero we work with you to deliver an online experience that exceeds patient expectations.
How is your website doing for you?


Logo: Most Important Asset for your Company.
Having a unique logo for your brand is crucial as it helps people recognize your brand. Trust us and we will design the best logo for your company that will hold your visitors' mind forever! Our professional logo designers have created memorable brands for multiple clients & businesses, throughout the globe! We have designed logos for all walks of life ranging from a small merchant to an innovative internet company.
Choose the leaders in custom logo design and have your logo created by our talented logo designers!!
Our creative team has wide-ranging experience across 100s of projects. We're an informal creative-led agency and we're all about the idea.
At Mindrops, all projects are managed directly by the creative team leads so you'll have direct communication with the people working on your project. This reduces rework and save tons of our and our clients time.
Creativity can be a little chaotic (and rightly so), so we use project management apps for everything we work on. You'll know what to expect and when you'll get it. This keeps the project progressing smoothly.
Your brand is everything to your business, so we have a collaborative approach to working that involves you at every stage. Our clients come to us for our expertise and experience, but we don't shut them out of the process.
We have talented creative team and we certainly won't burn your bread.


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AIA Indiana Design Award
October 12, 2015 /in Awards/by Schmidt Associates
Honor Award
Indiana University Rotary Building
Submission Category: Preservation/Adaptive Reuse/Renovation
Project Type (Specify Use of Building): Office Space
Project Address: 702 Rotary Circle Indianapolis, Indiana 46202
Date of Substantial Completion: May 2014
The IU School of Medicine educates the second largest medical student body in the USA. The school's commitment to excellence in education is manifest in the preservation and expansion of the Historic Rotary Building, located at the heart of the IUPUI Campus. It occupies a key property between the Sidney and Lois Eskenazi Hospital and the modern Riley Children's Hospital. One of IUPUI's long-lost treasures, Ball Gardens—designed by the renowned Olmsted Brothers—is located to the south and was restored simultaneously under a separate contract. The 1931 structure, originally designed as the Children's Convalescent Home, is one of the few remaining historic buildings on campus and an important backdrop to the gardens.
The primary project goals included:
• Preserve the distinctive character of the building and capture its spirit.
• Transform this jewel of a building into a modern office facility for the IU School of Medicine.
• Make the building a distinctive campus asset in its setting among the new Eskenazi Hospital, Riley Children's Hospital, and the restored gardens.
The restoration/adaptive reuse maintains the historic fabric of the building, maximizes connectivity to the campus, and gracefully integrates modern office and meeting space. The enclosed sun porch was removed to restore the front porch to its original look and feel at the main entrance. Directly above, an original second floor roof terrace was re-created and overlooks Ball Gardens. To further enhance the experience of being part of the campus, pathways accessing the site from all directions were re-established.
The look and feel of the original windows—including re-creating the window frame face profiles while integrating vision glass into the upper frames—helped make the historically sensitive renovation possible and brought natural daylight deeper into each floor plate. Other exterior strategies included the replacement of failing exterior metals with historically correct metal profiles and colors, and the restoration of the brick and limestone masonry to a fully watertight condition.
Interior space planning was challenged by the need to meet multiple program needs for a variety of users in the School of Medicine. The new layout has creative open office solutions and enclosed offices within the existing building framework. A new communicating stair is a focal element, and assists with wayfinding. The third floor ceilings were opened up to express the rooflines within the workspace.
Other interior strategies included preserving the historic Rotary emblem and reincorporating it into the floor tile of the public space; pulling colors, materials, and textures from the building's exterior, specifically the copper, through the project's modern interior space; and historic windows were integral in creating an open office concept with incidental seating around natural light sources.
The new building interior features a timeless, modern environment with a sophisticated material palette to enhance the existing historical character. The railing on the new communicating stair takes its cues from the rail design of the existing egress stair. Existing wood stain color and detailing informed new wall paneling in public areas. When existing interior wood windows were uncovered during selective demolition work, the design was adjusted and the windows were refinished. Plaster ceiling coffers and crown mouldings were also restored.
Utility routing for multiple campus structures runs through and around the building. The Team worked closely with campus facilities directors to pre-plan all current and future routing and to design the project phasing and shut-off switchover schedule. With no room to expand, crawl spaces under and adjacent to the basement were utilized to relocate utilities and create lower level occupiable space. Energy usage was optimized through the integration of a highly efficient, active chilled beam system supported by campus utilities, helping to achieve LEED Silver Certification or higher while meeting a project goal. The high-efficiency heating and cooling systems were designed to outperform the ASHRAE 90.1 baseline for existing buildings by 40%. Approximately 90% of the building lighting is from an LED source and 98% of the building is equipped with motion sensor-controlled lighting.
Creating a new home for the School of Medicine to relocate offices for the Center for Global Health, the Office of Medical Education and the Department of Medicine Divisions of Pulmonary, Gastroenterology and Hepatology, fulfills the third goal of making the Rotary Building a distinctive campus asset — because these professionals will be at the new crossroads of an exciting and expanded medical campus.
In the end, the School of Medicine has a technology-forward facility with new, modern interior functionality for faculty and students, while maintaining its historic character.
Tags: Architecture, Design, Indiana Architecture, Indianapolis Architecture, Indiana, Indianapolis, urban environments, higher education, indiana architect, indiana architects
/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Schmidt_WebLogo3.png 0 0 Schmidt Associates /wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Schmidt_WebLogo3.png Schmidt Associates2015-10-12 14:37:452016-11-16 17:26:40AIA Indiana Design Award
Schmidt Associates Makes ENR's List of Top 500 Design Firms
Schmidt Associates Named One of the Best Places to Work in Indiana 2020
Quality Pavement Award
Lisa Gomperts: AIA Fellowship
Monumental Affair


text:
\section{Introduction}
\label{sec:introduction}

Lowering human greenhouse gases emissions is one major goal of the efforts against climate change, and the focus and concern of international cooperation (\href{https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement}{Paris Agreement, 2015}). Many indicators of human development - population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), environmental footprint - have been following exponential curves during the past decades \cite{acceleration}; hence, drastic measures are needed if we are to switch from increasing to quickly decreasing emissions, as expressed in global organisations goals (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report \yrcite{IPCC}).

Understanding and forecasting the evolution, on a country-scale, of various indicators related to carbon emissions, may help to give a clear idea of the progress we are making, or not, towards lower emissions. The main indicators that we chose to study are the variables appearing in Kaya identity \cite{kaya}, on a country level: population, national GDP, energy supply and CO2 emissions.

Our main objective is to develop a model able to use this data to make accurate forecasts, on a medium/long-time horizon. Machine-learning models offer interesting advantages in comparison of traditional methods used for this type of work, typically statistical models \cite{cerqueira}. In particular, the recent development of Neural Ordinary Differential Equations offers a promising perspective in this case \cite{NODEs} - we explain the reasons for this choice in \ref{motivations}. We adapted Neural ODEs for this problem and compared the performance with a baseline statistical model.

\section{Kaya identity \& impact on climate change}
\label{sec:kaya}

The Kaya identity expresses a very simple relation between carbon emissions $F$, energy supply $E$, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) $G$ and population $P$ : $\quad F = P \times \frac{G}{P} \times \frac{E}{G} \times \frac{F}{E}$.\\$\frac{G}{P}$ is the GDP per capita, representing our average life standard, which we generally want to increase; $\frac{E}{G}$ is the energy intensity of the GDP - the energy needed to create one unit of GDP -, it quantifies the efficiency of energy usage in our activities; $\frac{E}{F}$ is the carbon intensity of energy - the CO2 emission corresponding to the supply of one unit of primary energy - and indicates how reliant on carbon emissions our electricity production is.

Forecasting human development and carbon emissions is possible both with the set of raw variables $\{P, G, E, F\}$ and with the set of indicators appearing in the Kaya identity $\{P, \frac{G}{P}, \frac{E}{G}, \frac{F}{E}\}$. However, the latter gives a clearer analysis, from a macroscopic point of view \cite{kayaanalysis}. While the raw variables are very strongly correlated altogether and vary greatly between countries, the variables from the Kaya equation look more like consistent indicators actionable under the right choice of policies \cite{kayaindependance}. Overall, using these four indicators seems to be a good choice in order to assess efforts made by a country or region concerning carbon emissions \cite{kayabaltics}.

\section{Methodology}

\subsection{Datasets}
\label{sec:datasets}

Four datasets were used for this study: datasets for population \cite{WBPop} and GDP \cite{WBGDP} were collected from the World Bank Open Data platform; the total energy supply \cite{IEABalances} and the CO2 emissions from fuel combustion \cite{IEAEmissions} were extracted from public datasets from the International Energy Agency. It should be noted that this is not the total emission for each country - however, greenhouse gases emitted by fuel combustion represent around 75\% of all greenhouse gases emissions \cite{emissionsanalysis}. Each variable is available yearly, from 1971 to 2019, for at least 54 countries.

\subsection{Motivations for a machine-learning approach}
\label{motivations}

In the domain of energy and emissions, forecasts are often relying on expert knowledge and statistical models \cite{stirpat, statUS}; an extensive set of Integrated Assessment Models are used to explore how system Earth evolves during the next decades, following specific scenarios (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report \yrcite{IPCC}), \cite{AfricaIAM}. In other fields, grey models \cite{greymodel} have been used successfully to model future emissions, linking with population, GDP and energy supply \cite{greymodelChina}.

In some cases, black-box, data-driven models give good performances in comparison with traditional models \cite{MLvsstat}. Here, the problem naturally appears as a multivariate time-series forecasting problem, for which machine-learning already offers an extensive toolbox \cite{LSTMs, GRUs}.

Here, the variables that we are trying to predict are physical values, that may be independent, or follow a simple or complex relationship \cite{kayaindependance}. Since we may lack understanding of the physical system, a black-box model comes with the advantage of sparing the risk of making wrong hypotheses. In addition, even if the individual time series are only 50 years long, the dataset comprises a large set of countries to train a model with. Hopefully, a suitable machine-learning model would benefit from the variety of countries and produce more satisfying results training on several countries (\ref{multicountry}).

\subsection{Neural ODEs}

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations \cite{NODEs} are a type of models recently brought into the spotlight. The model learns the dynamics of a system with a neural network: if $X(t)$ is a state vector obeying dynamics of the shape $\frac{dX}{dt} = f(X, t)$, the network must approximate $f$. NODEs work together with a Differential Equation solver, and were presented with a practical method to compute a loss and back-propagate its gradient. Since the architecture of the neural network is entirely free, a NODE model can be used for very different problems.

In our case, NODEs offer a good extrapolation capacity, allowing us to make long-time forecasts. Since they naturally model a vector field representing the evolution of a physical system, we hope that such a model can capture the complex physical pattern existing between the forecast indicators. In addition, several countries could help the model to represent the dynamics more accurately. Finally, a NODE model can handle sporadic data (not regularly sampled), both in time and across dimensions \cite{GRUODE} - although not required with our original dataset, this property may become relevant for this problem (\ref{scenario}).

\section{Forecasting results}
\label{forecasting}

We used a NODE model to forecast the evolution of 7 variables, for each country. Apart from the 4 indicators from Kaya identity (population, GDP per capita, energy intensity of the GDP, carbon intensity of the energy), we added 3 variables representing how electricity is produced: proportion of electricity produced via fossil fuels combustion, via nuclear power or via renewable sources. The last 3 variables remain in $[0,1]$ at all time, and sum up to $1$.
Our model wraps a very simple neural network (one hidden layer), which takes $8$ inputs ($7$ variables plus time) and outputs $7$ values (the $7$ variables derivatives). We also tried deeper architectures ; without clear evidence of better performances on this simple case, we kept the simplest model for performance evaluation. We used an Adam optimisation strategy \cite{adam}.

\begin{figure}
\vskip -0.05in
\begin{center}
\centerline{\includegraphics[width=1\linewidth]{boxplots-2.png}}
\caption{Boxplots of performances on 15 countries. \textit{V} stands for VAR model, \textit{N} stands for NODE model, the number corresponds to the forecast length, in years. We manually tuned some parameters. All models were trained for the same number of epochs, using Adam optimiser.}
\label{performances}
\end{center}
\vskip -0.5in
\end{figure}

\begin{figure*}
\vskip -0.05in
\begin{center}
\centerline{\includegraphics[width=1\linewidth]{plot_France.png}}
\caption{Example of forecasts obtained from a NODE model (red) versus a VAR model (green) ; training set is France data between 1971 and 2008, validation set is data between 2008 and 2020 (12-years forecast).
\label{forecasts}
\end{center}
\vskip -0.4in
\end{figure*}

As a first step, we ran the model for each country individually, dividing the rime range $[1971; 2019]$ in a training set (earlier dates) and validation set (latest dates). We compared the NODE model with a very simple statistical Vector Autoregression model (VAR model), which can typically be used for multivariate time-series problems \cite{VAR}.

To quantify performances, we computed the mean squared error on the validation set for a set of 15 European countries, for both models; figure \ref{performances} reports these results using boxplots. This was done for several forecast lengths. In particular, the table indicates that NODE models really shine for long-time horizons, while for very short forecasts VAR performs better; NODE models also give more stable performances - lower variance - when the forecast length increases. In addition, figure \ref{forecasts} presents a typical output of our NODE model, compared with forecasts from a VAR model.

\section{Conclusion \& next steps}

According to our results, Neural ODEs give overall good performances compared with VAR models, especially for long-time horizons. This justifies our approach as a reasonable method to forecast emissions in the long term. Through a data-driven model only, without expert knowledge, this process would hopefully learn from present and past patterns in the evolution of indicators from the Kaya identity, in order to give more accurate insight to policymakers.

\subsection{Multi-country training}
\label{multicountry}

One of the motivations for a machine-learning solution to this problem is the perspective of benefiting from training the same model on several countries data. We started from the assumption that countries with similar profiles - e.g. same continent, same economic system, etc. - should have their forecast indicators obey the same hidden law; in other words, the system dynamics should be identical for these countries \cite{correlationsmulticountry, economycorrelations}. If this hypothesis is true, crossing data from these countries allows to train the model on more samples0 and, hopefully, the trained model will be more robust and able to forecast a broader set of behaviours.

In the present state, we need to rethink how our model is able to distinguish different countries. With the normalisation process used so far, it was sometimes impossible for the model to tell that time-series come from different sources, with the output being just an average of all the observed trajectories. One possibility for this type of issue is to add meta-information about the data source, as additional inputs to the neural network \cite{hydro}. In our case, as first idea, we added country encoding as an input (one-hot encoding). This led to better forecasts, but work remains to be done in this direction ; we made preliminary experiments on deeper networks, which might also help.

\subsection{Scenario modelling}
\label{scenario}

A major prospect and objective of our study is the modelling of particular scenarios with this machine-learning approach: if we believe that our model has captured correctly the interactions between the forecast indicators, it is desirable to be able to explore particular possible futures \cite{RCPs, SSPs}. This is a common idea when studying mitigation against climate change, and allows to make the connection between public policies, global effort, and actual effect on climate change \cite{SDGs}. Here, interesting scenarios could model how emissions forecast change if the electricity production shifts towards more nuclear or renewable energy; or study trajectories that allow to meet national or international goals on emissions reductions; or model the impact of a crisis such as Covid-19 on long-term energy supply and emissions.

We envisioned two ways to incorporate scenarios to our NODE model - in both cases, we train the model beforehand. First, we could provide the model with a full, hypothetical trajectory for one indicator - the chosen scenario -, and forecast all other indicators. Hopefully, the model would take advantage of its training experience to output relevant correlations. Second, we could add after training one or several "hypothetical observations" to the training set, for future dates - the chosen scenario - ; we would then train the model for a few more epochs on the augmented training set, expecting the model to adapt its forecasts to the new observations, while keeping the structure it has acquired during the first training. A simple way to verify this idea would be to provide the model with observations from the validation set, and to examine if the performance on the validation set increases significantly after the additional training. Further work is required to assess if this approach can lead to consistent results.

\section{Submissions}
The workshop requires electronic submissions.  The electronic submission site is
\begin{center}
  \url{https://cmt3.research.microsoft.com/CCAIICML2021}
\end{center}

Please read the instructions below carefully and follow them faithfully.

\subsection{Style}

Papers submitted to the ``Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning'' workshop at ICML 2020 must follow the submission guidelines presented at \url{https://www.climatechange.ai/events/icml2021}.
They may \textbf{optionally} use this template (which is adapted from the ICML 2021 submission template).

Papers may only be up to four pages long, and proposals may only be up to three pages long (including figures). Additional pages \emph{containing only acknowledgments and/or cited references} are allowed.

\subsection{Retrieval of style files}

The file \verb+tccml_icml_2021.pdf+ contains these instructions and illustrates the
various formatting requirements your submission must satisfy.

The \LaTeX{} style file contains three optional arguments: \verb+final+, which
creates a camera-ready copy, \verb+preprint+, which creates a preprint for
submission to, e.g., arXiv, and \verb+nonatbib+, which will not load the
\verb+natbib+ package for you in case of package clash.

The file \verb+tccml_icml_2021.tex+ may be used as a ``shell'' for writing your
paper. All you have to do is replace the author, title, abstract, and text of
the paper with your own.

\section{Format of the Paper}

All submissions must follow the specified format.

\subsection{Dimensions}

The text of the paper should be formatted in two columns, with an
overall width of 6.75~inches, height of 9.0~inches, and 0.25~inches
between the columns. The left margin should be 0.75~inches and the top
margin 1.0~inch (2.54~cm). The right and bottom margins will depend on
whether you print on US letter or A4 paper, but all final versions
must be produced for US letter size.

The paper body should be set in 10~point type with a vertical spacing
of 11~points. Please use Times typeface throughout the text.

\subsection{Title}

The paper title should be set in 14~point bold type and centered
between two horizontal rules that are 1~point thick, with 1.0~inch
between the top rule and the top edge of the page. Capitalize the
first letter of content words and put the rest of the title in lower
case.

\subsection{Camera-Ready Author Information}
\label{final author}

If a paper is accepted, a final camera-ready copy must be prepared.
For camera-ready papers, author information should start 0.3~inches below the
bottom rule surrounding the title. The authors' names should appear in 10~point
bold type, in a row, separated by white space, and centered. Author names should
not be broken across lines. Unbolded superscripted numbers, starting 1, should
be used to refer to affiliations.

Affiliations should be numbered in the order of appearance. A single footnote
block of text should be used to list all the affiliations. (Academic
affiliations should list Department, University, City, State/Region, Country.
Similarly for industrial affiliations.)

Each distinct affiliations should be listed once. If an author has multiple
affiliations, multiple superscripts should be placed after the name, separated
by thin spaces. If the authors would like to highlight equal contribution by
multiple first authors, those authors should have an asterisk placed after their
name in superscript, and the term ``\textsuperscript{*}Equal contribution"
should be placed in the footnote block ahead of the list of affiliations. A
list of corresponding authors and their emails (in the format Full Name
\textless{}email@domain.com\textgreater{}) can follow the list of affiliations.
Ideally only one or two names should be listed.

\subsection{Abstract}

The paper abstract should begin in the left column, 0.4~inches below the final
address. The heading `Abstract' should be centered, bold, and in 11~point type.
The abstract body should use 10~point type, with a vertical spacing of
11~points, and should be indented 0.25~inches more than normal on left-hand and
right-hand margins. Insert 0.4~inches of blank space after the body. Keep your
abstract brief and self-contained, limiting it to one paragraph and roughly 4--6
sentences. Gross violations will require correction at the camera-ready phase.

\subsection{Partitioning the Text}

You should organize your paper into sections and paragraphs to help
readers place a structure on the material and understand its
contributions.

\subsubsection{Sections and Subsections}

Section headings should be numbered, flush left, and set in 11~pt bold
type with the content words capitalized. Leave 0.25~inches of space
before the heading and 0.15~inches after the heading.

Similarly, subsection headings should be numbered, flush left, and set
in 10~pt bold type with the content words capitalized. Leave
0.2~inches of space before the heading and 0.13~inches afterward.

Finally, subsubsection headings should be numbered, flush left, and
set in 10~pt small caps with the content words capitalized. Leave
0.18~inches of space before the heading and 0.1~inches after the
heading.

Please use no more than three levels of headings.

\subsubsection{Paragraphs and Footnotes}

Within each section or subsection, you should further partition the
paper into paragraphs. Do not indent the first line of a given
paragraph, but insert a blank line between succeeding ones.

You can use footnotes\footnote{Footnotes
should be complete sentences.} to provide readers with additional
information about a topic without interrupting the flow of the paper.
Indicate footnotes with a number in the text where the point is most
relevant. Place the footnote in 9~point type at the bottom of the
column in which it appears. Precede the first footnote in a column
with a horizontal rule of 0.8~inches.\footnote{Multiple footnotes can
appear in each column, in the same order as they appear in the text,
but spread them across columns and pages if possible.}

\begin{figure}[ht]
\vskip 0.2in
\begin{center}
\centerline{\includegraphics[width=\columnwidth]{icml_numpapers}}
\caption{Historical locations and number of accepted papers for International
Machine Learning Conferences (ICML 1993 -- ICML 2008) and International
Workshops on Machine Learning (ML 1988 -- ML 1992). At the time this figure was
produced, the number of accepted papers for ICML 2008 was unknown and instead
estimated.}
\label{icml-historical}
\end{center}
\vskip -0.2in
\end{figure}

\subsection{Figures}

You may want to include figures in the paper to illustrate
your approach and results. Such artwork should be centered,
legible, and separated from the text. Lines should be dark and at
least 0.5~points thick for purposes of reproduction, and text should
not appear on a gray background.

Label all distinct components of each figure. If the figure takes the
form of a graph, then give a name for each axis and include a legend
that briefly describes each curve. Do not include a title inside the
figure; instead, the caption should serve this function.

Number figures sequentially, placing the figure number and caption
\emph{after} the graphics, with at least 0.1~inches of space before
the caption and 0.1~inches after it, as in
Figure~\ref{icml-historical}. The figure caption should be set in
9~point type and centered unless it runs two or more lines, in which
case it should be flush left. You may float figures to the top or
bottom of a column, and you may set wide figures across both columns
(use the environment \texttt{figure*} in \LaTeX). Always place
two-column figures at the top or bottom of the page.

\subsection{Algorithms}

If you are using \LaTeX, please use the ``algorithm'' and ``algorithmic''
environments to format pseudocode. These require
the corresponding stylefiles, algorithm.sty and
algorithmic.sty, which are supplied with this package.
Algorithm~\ref{alg:example} shows an example.

\begin{algorithm}[tb]
   \caption{Bubble Sort}
   \label{alg:example}
\begin{algorithmic}
   \STATE {\bfseries Input:} data $x_i$, size $m$
   \REPEAT
   \STATE Initialize $noChange = true$.
   \FOR{$i=1$ {\bfseries to} $m-1$}
   \IF{$x_i > x_{i+1}$}
   \STATE Swap $x_i$ and $x_{i+1}$
   \STATE $noChange = false$
   \ENDIF
   \ENDFOR
   \UNTIL{$noChange$ is $true$}
\end{algorithmic}
\end{algorithm}

\subsection{Tables}

You may also want to include tables that summarize material. Like
figures, these should be centered, legible, and numbered consecutively.
However, place the title \emph{above} the table with at least
0.1~inches of space before the title and the same after it, as in
Table~\ref{sample-table}. The table title should be set in 9~point
type and centered unless it runs two or more lines, in which case it
should be flush left.

\begin{table}[t]
\caption{Classification accuracies for naive Bayes and flexible
Bayes on various data sets.}
\label{sample-table}
\vskip 0.15in
\begin{center}
\begin{small}
\begin{sc}
\begin{tabular}{lcccr}
\toprule
Data set & Naive & Flexible & Better? \\
\midrule
Breast    & 95.9$\pm$ 0.2& 96.7$\pm$ 0.2& $\surd$ \\
Cleveland & 83.3$\pm$ 0.6& 80.0$\pm$ 0.6& $\times$\\
Glass2    & 61.9$\pm$ 1.4& 83.8$\pm$ 0.7& $\surd$ \\
Credit    & 74.8$\pm$ 0.5& 78.3$\pm$ 0.6&         \\
Horse     & 73.3$\pm$ 0.9& 69.7$\pm$ 1.0& $\times$\\
Meta      & 67.1$\pm$ 0.6& 76.5$\pm$ 0.5& $\surd$ \\
Pima      & 75.1$\pm$ 0.6& 73.9$\pm$ 0.5&         \\
Vehicle   & 44.9$\pm$ 0.6& 61.5$\pm$ 0.4& $\surd$ \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\end{sc}
\end{small}
\end{center}
\vskip -0.1in
\end{table}

Tables contain textual material, whereas figures contain graphical material.
Specify the contents of each row and column in the table's topmost
row. Again, you may float tables to a column's top or bottom, and set
wide tables across both columns. Place two-column tables at the
top or bottom of the page.

\subsection{Citations and References}

Please use APA reference format regardless of your formatter
or word processor. If you rely on the \LaTeX\/ bibliographic
facility, use \texttt{natbib.sty} and \texttt{icml2021.bst}
included in the style-file package to obtain this format.

Citations within the text should include the authors' last names and
year. If the authors' names are included in the sentence, place only
the year in parentheses, for example when referencing Arthur Samuel's
pioneering work \yrcite{Samuel59}. Otherwise place the entire
reference in parentheses with the authors and year separated by a
comma \cite{Samuel59}. List multiple references separated by
semicolons \cite{kearns89,Samuel59,mitchell80}. Use the `et~al.'
construct only for citations with three or more authors or after
listing all authors to a publication in an earlier reference \cite{MachineLearningI}.

Use an unnumbered first-level section heading for the references, and use a
hanging indent style, with the first line of the reference flush against the
left margin and subsequent lines indented by 10 points. The references at the
end of this document give examples for journal articles \cite{Samuel59},
conference publications \cite{langley00}, book chapters \cite{Newell81}, books
\cite{DudaHart2nd}, edited volumes \cite{MachineLearningI}, technical reports
\cite{mitchell80}, and dissertations \cite{kearns89}.

Alphabetize references by the surnames of the first authors, with
single author entries preceding multiple author entries. Order
references for the same authors by year of publication, with the
earliest first. Make sure that each reference includes all relevant
information (e.g., page numbers).

Please put some effort into making references complete, presentable, and
consistent. If using bibtex, please protect capital letters of names and
abbreviations in titles, for example, use \{B\}ayesian or \{L\}ipschitz
in your .bib file.

\section*{Software and Data}

If a paper is accepted, we strongly encourage the publication of software and data with the
camera-ready version of the paper whenever appropriate. This can be
done by including a URL in the camera-ready copy.

\section*{Acknowledgements}
If a paper is accepted, the final camera-ready version can (and
probably should) include acknowledgements. In this case, please
place such acknowledgements in an unnumbered section at the
end of the paper. Typically, this will include thanks to reviewers
who gave useful comments, to colleagues who contributed to the ideas,
and to funding agencies and corporate sponsors that provided financial
support.

\nocite{langley00}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaArXiv


text:
Teaching Design Safety Early
Nancy Cowles
Children's Product Safety and KID's TEST Program
Kids In Danger was founded in 1998 after the death of Danny Keysar in a recalled portable crib. Danny's parents first set out to warn other parents of recalled products - something KID still does 14 years later. But they soon realized that the real hazard was products reaching the market without adequate safety standards or testing. KID's president, Linda Ginzel, Ph.D., a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, attended her first juvenile products meetings of ASTM International's Committee F15 on Consumer Products in 2000.
KID continues to participate actively in F15's juvenile products subcommittees, lending a consumer voice to the discussions on performance requirements and testing on products from cribs to slings, from toys to highchairs. KID's participation in voluntary standards development is a vital part of its mission.
KID's mission is three pronged: advocating for children, educating parents and caregivers about dangerous products, and promoting the development of safer children's products. But the organization's leadership realized there was a need to do more to influence engineers and designers to think differently about product safety. So KID launched TEST: Teach Early Safety Testing. With this program, the goal is to reach tomorrow's designers and engineers through undergraduate education. KID works with student design teams, professors and organizations to provide the engineering classroom with the same consumer viewpoint it brings to ASTM International.
The TEST objectives are to introduce undergraduate engineering students to design safety concepts, especially with regard to children's products. Examples from past incidents or recalls illustrate design flaws that have led to serious injury. In the classroom or workshop setting, KID engages students in discussions on key design and engineering concepts with real life examples. Students start thinking in new ways about end users and the foreseeable uses of a product. The student design teams are able to review a recalled product, an incident report or a pattern of incidents and make design changes to produce a safer product.
The first TEST student team in 2003 at the University of Michigan looked at the portable crib design that killed Keysar and 18 other children, and redesigned the folding mechanism to eliminate the entrapment hazard. Another team developed visual and audio cues that alert parents when a stroller is not fully engaged in the open position - addressing false latching that caused strollers to collapse while occupied. At Northwestern University, where KID works with first-year teams, a design solution was developed for infant monitors. In addition to addressing overheating issues that had caused recalls, the teams, rather than design an eye-catching cute nursery product, went in the other direction, making the product as unnoticeable and neutral as possible to lessen the likelihood that a baby or toddler would find it appealing and reach for the corded device.
These are just a few of the dozens of projects that have addressed known or emerging hazards. Just as the students use ASTM International standards in developing their prototypes, insights from the student projects have been integrated into future ASTM standards.
The vital design concepts that TEST addresses - end user analysis, human factors and use of standards to respond to known hazards - all transfer to any type of design work. But it is KID's hope that as TEST engages more students and universities, the designers of tomorrow's children's products will be designing with safety foremost in their minds.
Nancy Cowles is executive director of Kids in Danger, Chicago, Ill., and a member of ASTM International Committee F15 on Consumer Products.
Metals & Materials


Tom MacKenzie | Songs and tunes with Banjo & Hammered Dulcimer | Blog : Lots in the air.
Spring is definitely in the air. You can feel the change in the light, the temperature and the temperament of folks around you. Lots of exciting things for me. I get to play a Banjo player in a play being put on by the Lost Nation Theater company in Montpelier, VT.
Inspired by actual letters home to Vermont, written on the battlefield, from Civil War soldier Ransom Towle of Rochester Vermont. A startling glimpse into the lives of the soldiers and those left at home. Deeply moving.
Should be a lot of fun. I'm really looking forward to this. Also, Shady Rill has got some nice gigs coming up this spring, including a trip down to Maryland, balloon festivals and weddings. We are also in the process of lining up a cross country tour for next October.