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https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/...cid=mm7044e1_w
What is already known about this topic?
Previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 vaccination can provide immunity and protection against subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection and illness.
What is added by this report?
Among COVID-19–like illness hospitalizations among adults aged ≥18 years whose previous infection or vaccination occurred 90–179 days earlier, the adjusted odds of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 among unvaccinated adults with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection were 5.49-fold higher than the odds among fully vaccinated recipients of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine who had no previous documented infection (95% confidence interval = 2.75–10.99).
What are the implications for public health practice?
All eligible persons should be vaccinated against COVID-19 as soon as possible, including unvaccinated persons previously infected with SARS-CoV-2.
Well, if that is the rule and she shouldn't be saying things that are not part of government policy (i.e suggesting items that are in Plan B), then maybe the government themselves shouldn't be making the same rules to their own staff?
I mean, if the idea is to get people infected to give the NHS a break over Christmas, then shouldn't they be doing their bit and getting infected now?
Oh, but what is this?
MPs should begin social distancing in parliamentary committees and their staff should work from home, new guidance says, amid a rise in coronavirus cases in Westminster.
The House of Commons has instructed chairs of select committees to enforce social distancing in their meetings after a health and safety body ruled that the risk of Covid transmission had increased.
Tours and banquets in Parliament, which allow people who do not usually work in the Palace of Westminster to visit, have been cancelled.
Parliamentary authorities have said they will review the measures in two weeks, but the change comes after an uptick in cases in the House of Commons, including among ministers and senior staff.
1) Wrong government
2) The UK government does not make the rules for the procedures in the House of Commons (nor the Lords), that is an internal decision by the commons - led by the speaker - themselves.
Whilst you may complain MPs are not following government policy, that is not the UK government's fault.
If you want to look at the relevant government, members of the Scottish parliament do not appear to be masking, although they do seem to be distancing, this may just represent not many being in the chamber. Covid is probably worse in Scotland than in England.
2nd November 2021, 01:45 PM #244
Item #2.
The government could set an example - just as the opposition benches tend to be masked up and the government benches are not.
Worse in Scotland? Less mask wearing as well? I'll look into it.
Meanwhile, Jeremy Farrar has resigned from SAGE.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e_iOSApp_Other
3rd November 2021, 02:51 AM #246
Someone was asking about animal reservoirs of Covid a while back, when we already knew mink were a potential reserve.
Deer are an even better one: https://arstechnica.com/science/2021...ad-among-them/
How that pans out will bear watching. They have few symptoms, but seem to spread it readily.
Looks like there may be an effective antiviral at last.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59163899
The first pill designed to treat symptomatic Covid has been approved by the UK medicines regulator.
The tablet - molnupiravir - will be given twice a day to vulnerable patients recently diagnosed with the disease.
In clinical trials the pill, originally developed to treat flu, cut the risk of hospitalisation or death by about half.
Health secretary Sajid Javid said the treatment was a "gamechanger" for the most frail and immunosuppressed.
In a statement he said: "Today is a historic day for our country, as the UK is now the first country in the world to approve an antiviral that can be taken at home for Covid."
Lithrael
Master Poster
Ah nice. It does look, though, like this one is actually worthy of the "what if it's teratogenic" concerns that antivaxers have been throwing at the Moderna vaccine. Another medication that does a similar thing less aggressively is likely to be teratogenic in humans:
Teratogenicity risk
Favipiravir has raised considerable concern about the teratogenicity risk in humans because it is suggested that favipiravir may cause delayed development or death of embryos during the early stage of pregnancy, in which a pregnancy test may give a negative result. The teratogenicity of favipiravir was observed in all the animal species (4 species) assessed in embryo-fetal developmental studies; and the exposure causing teratogenicity in animals is comparable to that in humans receiving favipiravir in accordance with the proposed dosage and administration.
From https://www.pmda.go.jp/files/000210319.pdf
Also I appreciate the incidental cuteness of some abstract summary lines I ran across while looking for this, such as "The combination of suboptimal doses of Molnupiravir and Favipiravir resulted in a marked antiviral activity in our hamster infection model"
Last edited by Lithrael; 4th November 2021 at 08:04 AM.
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Originally Posted by Lithrael
I do look forward to a study looking at the combination of the oral anti viral molnupiravir with the inhaled anti-inflammatory / immunosuppresant budesonide in mild to moderate at risk out of hospital covid-19 infections. Combining the two, both of which have shown benefit individually, might be synergistic.
Given that our central medicine purchaser has only just approved Regeneron, I expect we'll have the molnupiravir sometime before 2030.
Meanwhile, it looks like much of Europe is on track to replicate the UK's current Covid wave, as Germany hits record infections, while Russia continues to be battered.
I note that even Denmark, with its high vaccination rate, is seeing the start of a new wave. That's the one to keep an eye on, given their vaccine rate. If they struggle to contain the harm, we're all in trouble.
Vaccination makes no real difference to infection. Without social distancing / masking there will be a surge in infections, vaccination will have no effect. What vaccination does is reduce hospital admissions and deaths. Not stop but reduce.
An interesting paper in Nature identifies a mutation much more common in South Asians (>60%) than Europeans (15%) that is associated with increased risk of severe disease.
Popular article based on research.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/...th-study-finds
Differences in mortalities between populations may represent genetic differences not necessarily differences in public health policies or discrimination affecting particular ethnicities.
The risk gene is inherited from the Neanderthals, perhaps the Neanderthals died out due to a Covid like infection? Populations with a higher component of Neanderthal ancestry e.g. Europeans vs Africans may have more severe disease with Covid-19.
Last edited by Planigale; 4th November 2021 at 02:11 PM.
And a second one:
An experimental pill to treat Covid developed by the US company Pfizer cuts the risk of hospitalisation or death by 89% in vulnerable adults, clinical trial results suggest.
Long time lurker
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But would it make evolutionary sense that this particular gene would then live on in the descendants of Neanderthals and Hom Saps?
Depends if it has a fitness advantage in other situations. Sickle cell disease persists because being a heterozygote gives a survival advantage in malaria endemic regions despite high mortality with homozygosity. The CF gene in Europeans persists at a high rate 5% of population because it is thought to have some advantage as a heterozygote probably in relation to infections such as typhoid.
I thought it made some difference, but it may be that the difference is canceled out by changes in behavior after people get vaccinated.
Another mutation (they call it a polymorphism) that may affect Covid severity was reported in Science:
Wickenhagen et al. examined a cohort of 499 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in the UK. Whereas all patients expressed OAS1, 42.5% of them did not express the antiviral p46 isoform. These patients were statistically more likely to have severe COVID-19 (be admitted to the intensive care unit).
There's hope, NZ usually follows Australia in many ways, don't they?
"Following regulatory approval by the TGA, Ronapreve will join other COVID-19 treatments including sotrovimab and remdesivir that are already available to health professionals, through the National Medical Stockpile to help treat people with COVID-19.
"Australia has also secured an advanced purchase agreement for 300,000 courses of the promising oral COVID-19 treatment Molnupiravir for supply in 2022 subject to TGA approval."
https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/...-19-treatments
I would count it as highly likely that such is the case in practice. At last check, the vaccines provide some resistance to detectable infection and reduced viral load output if infected, making them less infectious from the start. Social distancing, mask wearing, and reduced mobility/in person social interaction in general provide fairly effective protection, though, and reductions in those are fairly certainly of more import when it comes to overall infection rates.
Vaccination makes no real difference to infection. Without social distancing / masking there will be a surge in infections, vaccination will have no effect.
That's not right.
Vaccination provides high protection against infection for several months, and once boosted, for an unknown period of time.
At 1 month after two shots, Pfizer offers 78% protection against infection. https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid...after-2-months
Here in Czech Republic, with another wave starting, it shows only about 50% protection from infection. We are 7 month since vaccination started, so basically the worst possible timing. Or maybe the wave is starting exactly because the effectiveness is vanning. Israel showed similar data. It improved greatly with 3rd dose though in Israel, and we're just starting.
Also the protection against death and severe case stays at 80% or better.
Certainly at the moment the protection against infection is too low to give any preferential treatment to vaccinated. On the other hand that's what governments are trying first before mandates. So the virus is just happy.
A recent video by popular YouTuber John Campbell has me shaking my head.
He's basically reading number from Our World in Data for Africa as if they were reliable.
Although he does ask the question of whether the data are accurate, he seems to answer his own question in the affirmative ("probably underreported but reasonably accurate" he says, around 7:10-25).
But if we took the figures from Africa at face, you would have to conclude that vaccines are worthless. In fact, this is literally an Anti-Vaxxer talking point. I've seen them make this argument: the countries with the lowest rates of vaccination (mostly African and other very poor countries) also have lower death rates according to Our World in Data.
I assume the lower life expectancy is a factor? The elderly and vulnerable can't die of Covid 19 if they've already died of something else.
Fairly certainly. There are other notable factors as well, of course, but that is one of the notable ones, by my understanding. Another couple notable ones is that they both generally took the pandemic more seriously (they KNOW that their health care systems won't be able to handle it if it was left unchecked) and there's less reason to travel to them from the more infected countries. Actual lockdowns are pretty good at combatting Covid, by the look of it, and when some of the most notable clusters/starting points in poor Central American countries are fairly certainly the result of the US summarily deporting those that were infected (effectively and possibly actually intentionally, given the conditions and actions of those in charge), there's something to be said there.
Last edited by Aridas; 7th November 2021 at 12:42 AM.
Originally Posted by Aridas
Open air lifestyle is a huge factor
That may well be true, but the real problem is this:
COVID-19 deaths are a key indicator to track the evolution of the pandemic. However, many countries still lack functioning civil registration and vital statistics systems with the capacity to provide accurate, complete and timely data on births, deaths and causes of death. A recent assessment of health information systems capacity in 133 countries found that the percentage of registered deaths ranged from 98% in the European region to only 10% in the African region.
When you don't have a functioning civil registration and vital statistics system then it's just guesswork what people are dying of in that country.
Also the median age in the continent of Africa is 19.7 years, in Europe 43.7 years. That likely plays a factor, but without accurate vital statistics and covid testing, who knows how many people are dying there.
Sorry, but where are you getting this info. It is contrary to what I have read (especially assertion about waning effectiveness). I hope you aren't falling into same trap as idiots arguing against vaccines because they can't do the math. And there was recent french study that showed presence of antibodies even after a year.
So far, per-county infections look like map of vaccination, where the are more vaccinated people (or were there were more infected in winter/spring wave) the less infected in this wave.
ETA: And which Israeli study you refer to? If it is the one I think it is, than it still showed ~90% protection against infection by delta.
Last edited by Klimax; 7th November 2021 at 04:04 AM.
A Danish website, TV2.dk, now has a very good presentation of new cases and hospitalization per 100,000. It distinguishes between the three groups, unvaccinated, partly vaccinated and fully vaccinated:
Dagens coronatal: Stort overblik opdateret hver dag klokken 14 (TV2.dk)
Scroll down to: Smittede (infected) pr. 100.000 and Indlagte (hospitalized) pr. 100.000.
Share of people vaccinated against COVID-19: Fully vaccinated 76%, partly vaccinated 1.2%, unvaccinated 22.8%.
The graphs make it obvious how effective the vaccines are. Even the partly vaccinated have a considerable degree of protection in comparison to the unvaccinated. On the other hand, they also make it clear that there is no such thing as being 100% protection yet.
Last edited by dann; 7th November 2021 at 04:15 AM.
I have to wonder a little bit about this guy, to be honest.
I know that I have been critical of him before, for example, his enthusiasm over Ivermectin and his gloriously inept response to researchers who have shown just how much fraud there has been in Ivermectin (and honestly it has just got worse and worse for IVM regarding Covid), but I know that some people here have said that he has been very good at explaining things in ways that have really clarified the pandemic.
I think that is good and bad.
First of all, of course it is a good thing if he is helping people, but now that he has people's trust, it does bother me that whenever his videos pop up in my feeds, it seems to be promoting more and more fringe ideas.
(Also, I still think that referring to himself as Dr John Campbell is misleading. Yes, I know that I got yelled at before and asked "Don't you know you can get a doctorate in nursing!?!?" and have I no respect for nurses, etc....? Well, yes, I do know that, and yes I do have respect for nurses - and in fact my mother was a nurse herself, but he is not a doctor of nursing. As far as I can tell his doctorate is in education. Yeah, it still means he is a doctor. But for many it is a big difference if, say, Bret Weinstein or Dr Bret Weinstein is suggesting to people that they should take Ivermectin.)
And that's an even larger issue. IFR of Covid-19 drops about 10x for every 20 years of age. That's the biggest factor in Africa. Also, Covid-19 deaths in Africa were very low prior to vaccines. Africa v Europe is not even close to a viable argument against vaccines.
Excess deaths in Africa
The The Economist magazine provided the following numbers for Africa. The first column is the official Cover-19 deaths; the second column is deaths per 100,000; the third column is estimated excess deaths; the fourth column is est. XS per 100,000 and the final column is the ratio of est. XS deaths to official C19 deaths.
219,350. 16.0 (840k to 2.5m) (61 to 180) +800%
"These data make clear that covid-19 has led to the deaths of far more people than official statistics suggest (see our briefing)."
https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/...s-dramatically
When Addenbrooke's Hospital in Cambridge upgraded its face masks for staff working on COVID-19 wards to filtering face piece 3 (FFP3) respirators, it saw a dramatic fall – up to 100% – in hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infections among these staff.
The findings are reported by a team at the University of Cambridge and Cambridge University Hospitals (CUH) NHS Foundation Trust. The research has not yet been peer-reviewed, but is being released early because of the urgent need to share information relating to the pandemic.
Then, you need to factor in the countries that are flat-out lying. India is top of the list due to the sheer scale, but their official death total is millions short.
Holy Zarquon, how can we be two years into a pandemic and this not already be strict policy?
John Campbell did get wrapped up in IVM and still is to some degree. But he's also been on a tear about using aspiration as part of vaccination to prevent unintended vascular injection.
The Wall Street Journal has a piece about myocarditis in young males after vaccination. This occurs at very low rates and almost always results in full recovery but john strongly feels it's likely due to vascular injection. I think he has a point and it's one of the mechanisms discussed in the WSJ piece.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/researc...is-11636290002
After reading the mouse study which showed extreme mouse heart inflamation with IV mRNA v IM I'm inclined to think he's right.
Intravenous Injection of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA Vaccine Can Induce Acute Myopericarditis in Mouse Model
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance...iab707/6353927
In a Balb/c mouse model with both male and female mice, IV but not IM administration of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine induced a rapid onset of multifocal myopericarditis with elevated serum troponin, cardiomyocyte degeneration, and changes of both necrosis and apoptosis, adjacent inflammatory infiltrate of mononuclear cells, interstitial edema, and visceral pericardial calcification within 2 dpi. Moreover, the IL-1β, IFN-β, IL-6 and TNF-α expression levels generally increased significantly from 1 dpi to 2 dpi in the IV group but not the IM group. Overall, the findings have satisfied the Dallas and immunohistochemical criteria of myocarditis [13].
Indeed. I've seen plausible estimates for India where the central number is sufficient to almost double the whole world's death toll.
At least tenfold in some parts of India based on cremations with Covid protocols.
Also this.
You don't need the level of evidence we now have for FFP3 masks to realise that the risk:benefit was strongly in favour of such a minor intervention.
Excess deaths in India and China
The Economist link I provided above gives the ratio of estimate excess deaths (1.2m to 7.2m) over official Cover-19 deaths (about 461,000) to be 900%. The spread in the estimates for excess deaths is large for India and China.
Last edited by Dr.Sid; 7th November 2021 at 11:10 AM.
Back in September, a cousin directed me to a New England Journal of Medicine thing that gave some numbers to compare booster versus non-booster -
For the Non-Booster group, 4439 cases of infection for 5,193,825 person days of risk. For the Booster group, only 934 cases for 10,603,610 person days of risk.
Still well short, I'd say.
In shocking news, Russia's official count is likely to be under by half a million or so: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/rus...XV5VTXOGYJMWQ/
BuT i ThOuGhT tHaT tHe AuThOrItIeS aRe TrYiNg To MaKe It LoOk BaD sO tHeY cAn ImPoSe ReStRiCtIoNs
Talking about Russian dodgy figures. Check out the plot of turnout vs United Russia's result in the 2021 election. Especially in the higher turnout results.
https://twitter.com/hippopedoid/stat...184468993?s=20
Last edited by marting; 7th November 2021 at 02:56 PM.


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As Stock Market Recovers, Here Are The Best Stocks To Buy In April
By Deron Wagner | April 2, 2014
best stock & ETF picks from stock screener trading education articles
Stocks kicked off the second quarter of 2014 with a bang yesterday (and that's no joke).
Although the stock market was in pullback mode throughout most of March, the price and volume patterns of the past two days indicate last month's correction may soon become old news.
If that's the case and stocks soon resume their steady, upward trend, will you be fully prepared to profit?
By the time you finish reading this article, you will be!
First, I will get you up to speed on the current technical state of the broad market (with a mini-lesson on moving averages), then I will highlight some of the top stocks to potentially buy this month (if market conditions continue improving).
If you wish to skip my technical analysis of the broad market and jump directly to my stock picks below, just click here (I won't be offended).
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 – Getting Back In Business
Stocks followed through on the previous session's bullish reversal attempt with an impressive round of gains yesterday (April 1).
The bullish recovery was led by the NASDAQ Composite (for a change), which enabled the tech-dominated index to reclaim both is 20 and 50-day moving averages (the sibling NASDAQ 100 did so as well).
More importantly, higher volume accompanied yesterday's advance, enabling the NASDAQ to score its first confirmed accumulation day in more than a month.
The Russell 2000 is also is back in business, as the small-cap index closed above both its 20 and 50-day moving averages as well.
Below are daily charts of the NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 that show the technically significant improvements:
Why Moving Averages Matters
Moving averages play a very important role in our daily analysis of the overall stock market.
Aside from price and volume, moving averages are one of the most important indicators of our trading strategy.
In bull markets, the 50-day moving average is our pivotal "line in the sand." During corrections and pullbacks, the main stock market indexes must hold onto this level in order for us to continue operating on the long side of the market with confidence.
When the major averages subsequently get back above their 20-day exponential moving averages and hold, we can then get excited about new long setups because the potential for a new uptrend (or resumption of the previous uptrend) increases.
Overall, we can step on the gas pedal again when all the major indices move back above their 20 and 50-day moving averages (and hold for more than a day or two) after a substantial correction.
Divergent Stock Market Indexes
While this week's price action was certainly a step in the right direction (so far), both the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are now in "no man's land" because the indexes are back above resistance of their 20 and 50-day averages, yet still must contend with resistance of their prior highs and short-term downtrend lines that have formed.
On the other hand, the benchmark S&P 500 rallied to a fresh all-time high yesterday, as higher volume confirmed the move as well.
Although the S&P 500 corrected alongside of the NASDAQ last month, the retracement off the highs was relatively shallow (less than a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement):
Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P Midcap 400 indices did not close at record highs yesterday, but still managed to record new closing highs for the year.
The breakout to new highs in the S&P 500, along with yesterday's higher volume recovery in the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, was enough to put our stock market timing model back into "neutral" mode (previously in "sell" mode since March 21).
If the NASDAQ manages to finish above its 50-day moving average this week, our market timing system may shift back to a "buy" signal (subscribers of our nightly trading newsletter will be instantly notified if/when we re-enter "buy" mode).
Best Stocks To Watch In April
In terms of leadership stocks, the following tickers remained healthy throughout last month's correction and are still quite strong:
$KORS, $TSLA, $UA, $SYNA, and $URI
All of these stocks have the potential to quickly surge to new highs if broad market conditions remain solid.
$INVN and $IRBT are also holding up pretty well, while $FB appears to have formed a significant bottom by following through on last week's bullish reversal candle.
Our most recent buy entries into $FB (Facebook) resulted in two separate price gains of 49% and 12% earlier this year, but we would still consider re-buying $FB in our newsletter if it presents us with a low-risk re-entry point (such as a cup and handle pattern) in the coming weeks.
Tesla Motors ($TSLA) – Still The Hottest Stock To Buy
Of the stocks listed above, $TSLA remains one of the best "must own" stocks for any bullish portfolio. Aside from its incredible growth rate and other fundamentals, the technical chart pattern remains solid as well.
Like most stocks in the market, $TSLA also pulled back from its highs last month, but the retracement was less than 20% off its peak. Considering the stock has zoomed more than 400% higher over the past year, a 20% retracement off the highs is quite minor by comparison.
Further, the stock has pulled back to and is now holding key support of its 50-day moving average. A pullback to this level is often when institutional program trading kicks in for leading stocks.
Overall, the price action in $TSLA remains quite healthy, and we anticipate the stock will soon resume its impressive, long-term uptrend and once again cruise to new highs.
Our newsletter subscribers are still long $TSLA from our December 31, 2013 buy entry (current unrealized gain of 46%) because the price action has not yet given us a reason to take profits.
However, after last month's low becomes established as a pivotal support level, we will finally raise the stop to protect our large gain, while still allowing enough "wiggle room" for the gains to accumulate even more substantially from here.
Two For Today – $ZU and $QTWW
Going into today, both $ZU and $QTWW are "official" buy setups on our Wagner Daily stock watchlist.
With $ZU (see chart below), we like last week's "undercut" of both the low of the February 25 gap-up bar ($51.35) and 50-day moving average.
That probe below two key support levels (which shakes out the "weak hands") was followed by yesterday's heavier than average volume rally above the two-day high.
From here, we expect bullish momentum to power $ZU substantially higher in the near to intermediate-term:
The second ticker on our "official" watchlist going into today, $QTWW, is consolidating in a tight range on the weekly chart, after breaking out from a tight range on big volume a few weeks ago.
The base on base chart pattern (shown below) should eventually be resolved with an explosive move to the upside.
QTWW has an IBD relative strength ranking of 99, and is a member of the number 1 ranked industry group (Energy-Alternative/Other), so it definitely has explosive potential:
Regular subscribers of The Wagner Daily should note our preset, exact buy trigger, stop, and target prices for these two new potential swing trade entries in the "Watchlist" section of today's report.
So, now you know a few stocks we are stalking for potential buy entry in April. How about you? If you've got any stocks or setups you wish to share, just drop us a comment below.
Why Now Is Not The Time To Step On The Gas With Your Trading
Important support & resistance levels in the stock market…
Current support & resistance levels on the Nasdaq and S&P 500…
One comment on "As Stock Market Recovers, Here Are The Best Stocks To Buy In April"
Sheetal Diyaware says:
Nice blog, keep sharing such a nice information with us. Thanks

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