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The Ellis Insight
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Tag Archives: Iowa
Sen. Cory Booker Ends Run for 2020
By Jim Ellis
Sen. Cory Booker (D)
Jan. 15, 2020 — With less than three weeks from the first votes being cast in the Democratic presidential nomination process, Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) announced via Twitter that he is ending his national effort.
The move is not surprising, as Sen. Booker rarely reached or surpassed three percent support in any presidential primary poll. Like Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), who left the race just before the California candidate filing deadline in early December, visions of Senate re-election may have at least in part driven the timing of Booker's move. While Sen. Harris doesn't face voters in a strong Democratic state until 2022, Sen. Booker is on the New Jersey ballot this year.
Before the presidential race began, New Jersey legislators and Gov. Phil Murphy (D) changed the state election law to allow candidates to run simultaneously for more than one office. The move was obviously made to assist Sen. Booker's presidential efforts. Now, however, the simultaneous filing option becomes moot.
Leaving the race now provides him an excuse for finishing poorly in the first four voting states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, though he filed for each primary and caucus vote and will still be on the ballot in at least New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Though Sen. Booker appears safe for re-election, the New Jersey filing deadline isn't until March 30. Poor finishes in all primary and caucus states could have left him in a vulnerable state, and while the Garden State is highly unlikely to elect a Republican to the Senate, it's not out of the realm of possibility that a strong Democrat could have begun to mount a primary challenge. Now we can expect Sen. Booker to invest all of his political capital into cementing his re-election for a second full six-year term.
Posted in Election Analysis, Polling, Presidential campaign and tagged Andrew Yang, Des Moines, Deval Patrick, Gov. Phil Murphy, Iowa, Joe Biden, John Delaney, Marianne Williamson, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Michael Bloomberg, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey ballot, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Cory Booker, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sen. Kamala Harris, Sen. Michael Bennet, South Carolina, televised presidential forum, Tom Steyer on January 15, 2020 by Jim Ellis.	Leave a comment
Sanders Leading in California
2020 Presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders takes the lead in California
Jan. 13, 2020 — The new Capitol Weekly research survey (Jan. 1-9; 1,053 likely California Democratic primary voters) finds Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) taking a slight polling lead in the California Democratic primary over Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), former Vice President Joe Biden, and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg in what is consistently becoming a closely bunched field.
With two months to go before the Golden State primary is conducted but less than a month before early voting begins there on Feb. 3, the possibility of multiple candidates receiving portions of the state's 415 first ballot delegates is becoming very real.
Sanders leads Warren, Biden, and Buttigieg by a 24-21-20-11 percent spread. Under party rules, a candidate must secure 15 percent of the statewide vote to earn at-large delegates. Therefore, Buttigieg must work to gain strength during the remaining time in order to reap the all-important mandated delegate commitments.
If he were to obtain 15 percent, and the others remained constant with these present percentages, the at-large delegate division would break 43 for Sanders and 38 for Warren, while Biden would earn 36 and Buttigieg 27 votes.
Should only the top three qualify for at-large delegate apportionment, Sanders would earn 53 votes, Warren 46, and Biden 45. Therefore, Buttigieg qualifying would significantly change the state and overall race because the large California delegation will be a major presence at the Democratic National Convention.
Scoring at-large delegate commitments is not the only way to earn votes, however. A larger total of 271 delegates will be awarded through the state's 53 congressional districts. Each district, based upon its historical support performance for Democratic candidates, is awarded between 4 and 7 delegates, inclusive.
Posted in Election Analysis, Polling, Presidential campaign, Super Tuesday and tagged Andrew Yang, California, Capitol Weekly, Democratic National Convention, Iowa, James Garfield, Joe Biden, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Michael Bloomberg, New Hampshire, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Super Tuesday on January 13, 2020 by Jim Ellis.	Leave a comment
Impeachment Politics
Dec. 20, 2019 — As the most recent polling from national research sources and in key states shows President Trump gaining political strength, the US House last night, on a virtual party line vote, approved the resolution to send the Articles of Impeachment to the US Senate for trial.
The vote was 229-198, with three Democrats voting against the articles and one Republican-turned-Independent, Michigan's Justin Amash, supporting the measures. Presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard, who represents the 2nd District of Hawaii, voted "Present". Three members, two Republicans and one Democrat, were absent. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) will soon resign his seat due to pleading guilty to a federal campaign finance charge. Retiring Reps. Jose Serrano (D-NY) and John Shimkus (R-IL) were the others who did not vote. All present and voting Republicans opposed the impeachment measures.
Two of the three opposition Democrats were expected to vote no, Reps. Collin Peterson (D-MN) who represents the strongest Trump district in the country to elect a Democrat to the House, and New Jersey's Jeff Van Drew who is about to leave his party to join the Republicans. The third no vote came from freshman Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME), who represents the northern district in Maine that delivered its electoral vote to Trump in 2016 even though the state voted for Hillary Clinton. Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that choose to divide their electoral votes.
Two pollsters who had been showing national political support for the impeachment are now projecting a swing toward the opposite conclusion.
The CNN poll, conducted by their usual research partner, the SSRS firm, surveyed 1,005 adult respondents over the Dec. 12-15 period. A total of 45 percent of the respondents favored impeaching the president, while 47 percent said, "they don't feel that way." In contrast, their Nov. 21-24 survey found 50 percent favoring impeachment while 43 percent said they didn't agree with the move. Previously, the CNN polls had reported positions consistently favoring impeachment since late September.
Posted in Impeachment, Polling, Presidential campaign, Super Tuesday and tagged Articles of Impeachment, California, CNN poll, Gallup poll, Hawaii, Hillary Clinton, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Iowa, Maine, Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, President Trump, Rep. Collin Peterson, Rep. Duncan Hunter, Rep. Jared Golden, Rep. Jeff Van Drew, Rep. John Shimkus, Rep. Jose Serrano, Rep. Justin Amash, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, South Carolina, SSRS, Super Tuesday, Texas on December 20, 2019 by Jim Ellis.	Leave a comment
Buttigieg Tops New Hampshire Field
South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg
Dec. 13, 2019 — It has been clear for some time that South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is making a strong move in Iowa, perfectly understandable for a candidate hailing from the Midwest; but could an Iowa-New Hampshire sweep be in the forecast for the upstart national contender?
A new MassInc poll for WBUR radio, the public news station in Boston, finds Mayor Buttigieg, for the first time, posting a small lead in the Granite State. The survey (Dec. 3-8; 442 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters) gives Buttigieg a slight 18-17-15-12 percent edge over former Vice President Joe Biden, and Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), respectively, as a clear four-way race is beginning to crystallize for the first-in-the-nation primary.
The latest Iowa Caucus public polling, from Nov. 8 – Dec. 10 through four different survey research firms (Selzer & Company, YouGov, Civiqs, and Emerson College), finds Mayor Buttigieg either leading or tied in three of the studies.
Should such a trend come to fruition in February, we would see the underpinnings of not only Buttigieg becoming a legitimate contender, but a serious national four-way contest taking shape.
The New Hampshire poll is significant not only because it reveals a state base for Buttigieg but also finds that neither New England stalwart politicians Sanders nor Warren have clinched the state, as one might surmise. It was only four years ago when Sen. Sanders posted a 60 percent victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic New Hampshire presidential primary. At this point, now exactly two months from the Granite State primary vote, it would be reasonable to believe that both would be doing better than the MassInc survey and other recent polls suggest.
The MassInc/WBUR poll also provides another key data point. Despite former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg's major media spending, apparently on a national basis, his favorability ratings among Democrats continue to languish. His personal index will have to substantially improve if he is to make a push to develop a five-way nomination campaign.
Yesterday, we covered a Monmouth University national poll that found Bloomberg being regarded as the most unpopular of the well-known Democratic candidates, and this MassInc/WBUR New Hampshire survey returns similar results.
Posted in Election Analysis, National Survey, Polling, Presidential campaign and tagged Ellis Insight, favorability ratings, Hillary Clinton, Iowa, Jim Ellis, Joe Biden, Julian Castro, Marianne Williamson, MassInc poll, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Michael Bloomberg, Monmouth University, Nevada, New Hampshire Democratic primary, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, WBUR radio on December 13, 2019 by Jim Ellis.	Leave a comment
Pompeo for Senate?
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
Nov. 25, 2019 — Ever since Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts (R) announced last January that he would retire at the end of the current Congress there has been consistent speculation that US Secretary of State and former Wichita area congressman, Mike Pompeo, would resign his national position and return to Kansas to run for the open seat. Despite repeated denials from Secretary Pompeo, the speculation would not die.
Now, it appears the rumors of him entering the race have greater foundation, as more concrete stories that he will soon resign and announce his candidacy are regularly surfacing. The Senate Republican leadership is clearly in favor of the Pompeo move, originally fearing that former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach could win a crowded August Republican primary with only a vote plurality and then perform as badly in the general election as he did when he lost the 2018 open governor's race.
With Republicans holding 53 of the chamber's 100 seats but having to defend 23 incumbents and open seats on the 2020 Senate election map versus only 12 for the Democrats, the GOP cannot afford an electoral debacle in what should be a safe seat. It was only two years ago that another flawed Republican Senate candidate bungled the Alabama special election, thus allowing Democrat Doug Jones to win the position that Sen. Jeff Sessions had resigned to become US Attorney General.
Currently, eight individuals have announced for the Republican nomination led by Kobach, US Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend), and state Senate President Susan Wagle (R-Wichita). Polling and local political intel suggests that Pompeo would have little trouble winning the nomination, and the seat, if he were to enter the race. If he does become a candidate, some of the others, and particularly Rep. Marshall, would have time to exit the race and pivot back toward seeking re-election to their current position.
Originally, state Treasurer Jake LaTurner (R) had been in the Senate race – in fact, he was the first to enter the contest immediately after Sen. Roberts made public his intentions – but he has already exited and, at the behest of former Gov. Jeff Colyer (R), is now challenging freshman Rep. Steve Watkins (R-Topeka) for re-nomination in the 2nd Congressional District.
Posted in Election Analysis, Senate and tagged Alabama, Arizona, Barbara Bollier, Colorado, Ellis Insight, Iowa, Jake LaTurner, Jeff Colyer, Jim Ellis, Kansas, Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, Kathleen Sebelius, Maine, Mike Pompeo, North Carolina, Rep. Roger Marshall, Rep. Steve Watkins, Sen. Cory Gardner, Sen. Joni Ernst, Sen. Martha McSally, Sen. Pat Roberts, Sen. Susan Collins, Sen. Thom Tillis, Susan Wagle, US Attorney Barry Grissom on November 25, 2019 by Jim Ellis.	Leave a comment
Candidate Filings: Eye on
Mississippi and Kentucky
Latest Early-State Polling
Sanders, Steyer With Momentum
New Arizona Data
Impeachment Data: Many Polls
Show Georgia Numbers Improving
Jim Ellis
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6 Seattle police officers under investigation for Jan. 6 DC presence, when mob stormed Capitol
Local // Local News
Feb. 6, 2021 Updated: Feb. 6, 2021 8:58 a.m.
Another Seattle police officer self-reported they were in Washington, D.C. during the Jan. 6 rally and subsequent riot at the U.S. Capitol, the Seattle Police Department said in a statement released Friday evening. The Seattle Office of Police Accountability (OPA) is now investigating six officers, four who self-reported, who were at the rally or in D.C. when the mob stormed the Capitol.
The four officers who self-reported will remain on duty during the investigation, the statement said. The first two officers linked to the rally, those who were identified by others, were placed on administrative paid leave. Police have not said when officers self-reported.
The rally, led by supporters of then-President Donald Trump and urged by his false accusations of election fraud, reached a boiling point outside of the Capitol Building as members of Congress were certifying the election for President Joe Biden. Chants of "stop the steal," ruled the afternoon as Trump supporters stormed the building.
Five died during the events, including a Capitol Police officer who died from injuries after he was beaten with a fire extinguisher. A Trump supporter died after police shot her.
If officers attended the rally, it's not necessarily grounds for termination, a point the OPA and interim Chief Adrian Diaz have stressed. After three officers self-reported in January, OPA Director Andrew Myerberg told the Seattle Community Police Commission (CPC) during a public meeting that officers would not be fired for attending the rally, as they were free to exercise free speech. Officers would be fired if they were deemed to have taken part in the insurrection.
Diaz has said any officer "directly involved" with the insurrection would be immediately terminated.
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