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Wale Supports Plans to Increase Age Limit for Labour Mobility Workers
The Opposition Leader says that apart from the age limit the Government should also push for an increase in the total number of workers going to Australia, which is currently in the hundreds, to at least a thousand per month.
Source: File: SIBC
Friday, 13 August 2021 09:39 AM
The Leader of Opposition, Matthew Wale, says he fully endorses recent submissions made by the Solomon Islands High Commissioner to Australia, H.E. Robert Sisilo, to increase the current age limit under the Labour Mobility Scheme and the Seasonable Workers Program in Australia to 55 years old.
Hon. Wale says the dialogue in Canberra is important given the need to ensure long term sustainability and efficiency of these programs, hence the submissions by H.E. Mr. Sisilo were timely.
"If there is high demand in Australian urban and metropolitan areas for semi to skilled workers, the increase in the age limit will enable us to fill gaps in Australian industries, while at the same time, the experience and exposure gained will no doubt add value to our efforts in keeping our domestic industry afloat moving forward," says Hon. Wale.
The Opposition Leader says that apart from the age limit issue the Government should also push for an increase in the total number of workers going to Australia, which is currently in the hundreds, to at least a thousand per month.
The Opposition Leader also urged the Government to look at removing all logistical costs such as passports, medical clearance, police clearance, birth certificates and other requirements, enabling more of our people to try out these opportunities.
"On this note, I also call on the High Commissioner, to establish a unit within his office, whose role is to scout for more of these opportunities in Australia. We need more workers to participate in this programme, so that they can contribute to our economy through remittances," the Opposition Leader said.
Source: Opposition Press


A holding of the private equity firm Caltius Equity Partners, Northwest Coatings L.L.C., is an Oak Creek, WI manufacturer of energy curable adhesives and coatings for the printing, converting, packaging, and general industrial markets. As the largest independent manufacturer of products based on ultraviolet and electron beam polymerization technologies, Northwest has sales of nearly $40 million and excellent prospects for growth.
Ashland, Inc., a diversified chemical company based in Covington, KY, approached Caltius and Northwest about buying the business in order to strengthen Ashland's performance chemicals business. Caltius and Northwest engaged Grace Matthews to negotiate and structure the transaction. Grace Matthews negotiated and structured a transaction with a total value of $72 million. The acquisition provided Northwest with access to Ashland's global distribution capabilities, and allowed Ashland to enhance its offerings in the packaging, converting and labeling markets.


SIX women with albinism who descended Mt Kilimanjaro recently as part of a campaign to champion awareness on the condition and rally for actions to end discrimination and human rights violations against persons with albinism have spoken of their experiences at the end of the expedition.
The climbers surmounted diverse challenges to excel in different fields and are now using their experiences and influence to lead albinism advocacy efforts across the African continent and inspiring others to do the same.
All the six climbers went beyond what they thought was possible, with team member Nodumo Ncomanzi from Z imbabwe reaching the highest point, Uhuru Peak.
While her colleagues withdrew at different time spans after developing high altitude sickness. "I am proud to be a woman with albinism who stood at Uhuru Peak, the highest point on the African continent," she said adding that her teammates were the source of her strength as she would not have summited had she not climbed with them for the first 6 days.
"This is only the beginning of us amplifying our power and that of other persons with albinism around the world," she said in Moshi yesterday.
Ncomanzi, a brand strategist who uses her creative spaces to advocate for a more livable and supported existence for persons with albinism globally.
The six women started their expedition on October 1, 2018. Expedition leader and cofounder of Climb For Albinism, Elia Saikaly said "after careful assessing each climber at Kibo camp, 4,700m above sea level, the leadership determined that only two climbers, Jane Waithera and Nodumo Ncomanzi were fit by high altitude mountain standards to attempt the summit", adding that the decisions were made with each climber's personal safety in mind.
Drawn from Tanzania, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Z imbabwe and Senegal, the women said the physical and mental strain they endured scaling up the mountain was testimony to their determination to reverse the stereotype heaped on people with albinism, which led society to discriminate against them.
"I am happy to have challenged myself and realized that I am able to conquer anything. I am also thrilled that this experience brought new friends into my life and empowered me with the dignity and power to be who I am," said Mariam Staford, a Tanzanian who advocates against violence on persons with albinism.
According to expedition leader and co-founder of Climb For Albinism, Elia Saikaly, "after careful assessment of each climber at Kibo camp 4,700 metres, the leadership determined that only two climbers, Jane Waithera and Nodumo Ncomanzi were best positioned, strength-wise, by high altitude mountain standards, to attempt the summit, with decisions made with each climber's personal safety in mind and each climber's blessing".
Ms Waithera turned back just 20m from Uhuru Peak due to a knee injury, but was in the great spirits and thrilled to climb beyond 19,000 ft. Nodumo summited at 19,340 ft (5,894m) on behalf of the team on Oct.7, 2018.
"I am proud to be a woman with albinism who stood at Uhuru Peak, the highest point on the African continent," said Nodumo. "My teammates were my source of strength.
I would not have made it to the summit if I had not climbed with them for the first 6 days. This is only the beginning of us amplifying our power and that of other persons with albinism around the world," she remarked.
Ncomanzi is a brand strategist and uses her creative spaces to advocate for a more livable and supported existence for persons with albinism globally.
All the women said the physical and mental strain endured while scaling up the mountain taught them empowering and enduring lessons about themselves and their cause.
"Climbing the mountain made me identify the physical representation of how painful the lives of persons with albinism are," said Regina Mary from South Africa, adding that the struggle to reach the next base-camp reminded her of how hard it can be to keep trying to pursue her dreams as a person with albinism.
Mariam Staford, a resident of Moshi and an advocate against violence on persons with albinism said despite not making it to the summit, she felt empowered, having challenged herself.
"I realized that I am able to conquer anything. I am also thrilled that this experience brought new friends into my life and empowered me with the dignity and power to be who I am", she said.
On her part, Jane Waithera from Kenya, who advocates for and mentors persons with albinism in East Africa said it was one of the greatest moments of her life and proud to be part of making history and promoting a better world for persons with albinism.
"Every step that I took towards the top was a step to zero stigma and discrimination towards persons with albinism," she said. According to Dr Onyinye Edi from Nigeria, said, climbing Mt. Kilimanjaro was the the toughest assignment she has undertaken so far. "I have never done anything as physically tasking as climbing Mount Kilimanjaro.
I learned that I am stronger than I think." Climbing Mount Kilimanjaro an extreme altitude mountain, which takes a toll on people who attempt it; a factor which led Mr Saikaly to applaud the courage of the six women.
"The climb was a significant struggle for the entire team, symbolic of the challenges persons with albinism face in their everyday lives. Mount Kilimanjaro threw just about everything at us and in the end, the Climb for Albinism flag was raised on the roof of Africa.
I'm incredibly proud of each team member for undertaking such a tremendous challenge and for standing together for such an important cause," said Mr Saikaly.


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5 Dean Positions and 4 Head Of Department Positions
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Associate professor (førsteamanuensis/førstelektor) – Paramedic
Associate professor (førsteamanuensis/førstelektor) – Paramedic Do you have a burning wish to contribute to the development of the paramedic field?There is a vacancy for a permanent position as an associate professor in paramedics at the Department of Nursing and Health...
Associate professor / Assistant professor – psychomotor physiotherapy
Associate professor / Assistant professor – psychomotor physiotherapy, 50% of a full-time position The Faculty of Health Sciences, Department of Physiotherapy has a vacancy for an assistant professor (universitetslektor)/associate professor (førsteamanuensis or...
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About the position A 100 % position is available at the University of Agder, Faculty of Engineering and Science as a PhD Research Fellow in Information and Communication Technology (specifically low-altitude UAV communications and tracking), affiliated to the Department of...

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Ensuring safety through solid design.
Adequate performance of structures during seismic events is critical to life safety. As part of our geotechnical engineering services, BLE provides seismic design recommendations including seismic site classification, liquefaction evaluation and seismic stability of dams, slopes and embankments. We work with our clients to develop safe, durable structures that can withstand seismic activity with minimal damage.
We are also experienced in using earthquake modeling software to perform site specific seismic response analysis. This analysis helps us to understand how a particular structure will react to seismic activity.


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Home Media Denver Post's hedge-fund owner lost a 'hostile takeover bid' of the largest...
Denver Post's hedge-fund owner lost a 'hostile takeover bid' of the largest US newspaper chain. For now.
Your weekly roundup of Colorado local news & media
Corey Hutchins
The former Denver Post newsroom before journalists were moved to a printing plant in Adams County to save money (Photo by Allen Tian)
The hedge fund that controls Media News Group, née Digital First Media — also known as The Nothing, and for gutting newsrooms like The Denver Post — has lost a battle in its company's attempted "hostile takeover bid" of Gannett, the nation's largest newspaper chain. This clash of the media titans is important for Colorado because MNG owns a dozen newspapers here and Gannett owns The Coloradoan in Fort Collins.
On May 16, the day of a high-finance proxy battle board seat vote, the hedge fund uncharacteristically bent the knee, sending out an email to employees, which included journalists. "The proxy contest has ended today and we want to directly communicate to the MNG organization that although we did not prevail we will continue to pursue the addition of other newspaper publishing properties as circumstances present themselves," wrote Alden Global Capital Chairman Joseph Fuchs and Vice Chairman Heath Freeman.
Here's how the the Alden-company-controlled Bay Area News Group reported on this media-world Game of Thrones:
MNG made an unsolicited, $1.4 billion bid to take over Gannett Co. in January, announcing it had acquired approximately 7.5 percent of Gannett Co.'s outstanding shares. Gannett Co. rejected the initial bid, and the process evolved into a proxy fight, with MNG putting forward six candidates to replace Gannett directors — a slate that MNG eventually cut in half. But Gannett Co., the owner of USA Today and more than 100 daily newspapers, announced Thursday that it had retained control of its board of directors with shareholders re-electing all eight Gannett-backed nominees and rejecting all three nominees put forward by MNG.
And here's how the Gannett-owned USA Today played the news:
Gannett shareholders voted to reject MNG Enterprises' board nominees, siding with the USA TODAY owner as it attempts to fend off a hostile takeover bid by the hedge fund-controlled newspaper company. Gannett chairman J. Jeffry Louis announced Thursday that the company's shareholders backed the eight board members who stood for reelection, according to preliminary results of the vote. The three nominees proposed by Alden Global Capital's MNG Enterprises failed to gain seats on the board.
So what now? It's "just a hiccup" says industry analyst Ken Doctor, who believes murders and executions — (excuse me) — mergers and acquisitions are still ahead for the big newspaper companies. He put this skirmish in the context of a larger newspaper industry war, one where GateHouse, House McClatchy, and House Tribune all still fly banners outside their walls.
Print advertising remains down double digits across the industry, and digital advertising — even if you include "marketing services" — is newly weakened in the face of Google and Facebook's 77 percent share of local digital ad revenue. "It's been growing for six years," one top revenue exec told me this week. "This year, it's struggling." Local digital subscription revenue is the one operational area the industry looks to for growth.
As Tribune continues to assess who it wants to sell to, or buy, or merge with — McClatchy continues its search for a partner. And, as I noted a month ago, even GateHouse — the past few years' go-go acquirer, amassing 145 titles — is now reassessing its own strategies. Those plans haven't turned the company around. Will it remain a standalone company (known formally as New Media Investments, Inc.)? Or will it participate in a grand industry rollup that some have prophesied for years? … If we do see big mergers, who will run the companies that result, with what strategies? And — big question — will they have enough capital to execute on their vision of a digital transformation?
By "grand industry rollup," he means consolidation— one house taking over another house to be ruled under one king. So, when winter comes, who will it be, and who — or how many — will go the route of Sansa Stark?
A father-son TV news rivalry comes to Denver
Famed TV journalist Tim Russert didn't live long enough to see his son Luke join NBC as a congressional reporter. But even if he had they would have worked for the same network. Here in Denver, a well-known TV news dad is getting to see his son follow him as a reporter on the screen — but for a rival station.
After two years at WBIR in Knoxville, Marc Sallinger is moving back to Colorado, where he used to live, and is taking a job at KUSA 9News, the city's NBC affiliate. There, he'll compete against his father Rick Sallinger, who works for Denver's CBS4 News.
It is with great pride I can now report that my son Marc will soon be working as a reporter on Denver TV at KUSA. pic.twitter.com/gcAXBD9ObP
— Rick Sallinger (@ricksallinger) May 18, 2019
That's my dad but he's also the competition now
— Marc Sallinger (@MarcSallinger) May 17, 2019
Onward to the scoops. And family dinners.
More on police scanner encryption in Colorado
Earlier this year, my colleague Jonathan Peters, the press freedom correspondent for Columbia Journalism Review, reported how encryption efforts were challenging journalists who cover crime in Colorado. "More than two-dozen law enforcement agencies statewide have encrypted all of their radio communications, not just those related to surveillance or a special or sensitive operation," he wrote. "That means journalists and others can't listen in using a scanner or smartphone app to learn about routine police calls."
A month later, he was not encouraged by plans in Denver to encrypt all of the police department's radio traffic and give access to it to select media that sign some kind of agreement with the city.
The issue bubbled up again in a city council meeting in Longmont last week when police told local government officials why they think the encryption practice works and would like to continue it. "They said police officers have been concerned for years that those who commit crimes listen to the department's radio traffic to determine officers' locations," reported The Longmont Times-Call. The Times-Call and other local media, however, "were provided a scanner to listen to encrypted radio traffic," the paper reported. Longmont Observer has a write-up and video from the city council hearing here.
Has your newsroom been affected by this practice in Colorado? If so, let me know.
You cool with this?
The University of Colorado at Colorado Springs secretly photographed students to create a dataset "funded by U.S. intelligence and military agencies" to "advance facial recognition technology" and turned over the images to "government agencies and corporations."
From The Colorado Springs Independent:
Back in 2012, [UCCS professor] Terrance Boult attached a camera to a building on the University of Colorado at Colorado Springs campus and began filming oblivious students that passed by it. The images, collected on 20 days between February 2012 and September 2013, were of over 1,700 people completely unaware they were being watched. …
Once the images were collected, Boult and his students began the arduous process of sorting them, often relying on the regularity of class schedules to identify the same subject in multiple shots. Each little collection showed a single person, but wearing a variety of clothes and with their face at various angles. Together, the photos created a dataset known as Unconstrained College Students — the latest, and perhaps most advanced, dataset for training facial recognition algorithms, surveillance tools that are under development by corporations and governments across the world. …
…Boult points out that there's nothing illegal about taking photos of people in public. And First Amendment Attorney Steve Zansberg, of Denver's Ballard Spahr LLP, agrees — though he says that some of the applications of the photos could possibly give rise to legal challenges, especially when government is collecting that data. Still, this is largely uncharted territory. …
Boult says that he tries to balance ethical privacy concerns in his work. For instance, he waited until all the students in his dataset would have graduated before making it available to government agencies and corporations, and none of the people in the dataset are named. Those using the dataset, released in 2017, had to sign a legal agreement and could not release individual photos.
Speaking of surveillance…
"Pueblo police are using drones extensively." That was a recent headline from The Pueblo Chieftain about the southern Colorado city's "seven officers who have been trained to operate the drones that have become beneficial in police investigations."
From the story:
In a separate situation, an officer spotted a man wanted on multiple warrants escape from a home, but a drone was able to help that officer locate the suspect hiding several blocks away. Once the drone spotted the suspect, police were able to move to the area in which he was hiding and apprehend him, [an officer] said.
"They have enough technology in them that you can take off and let it hover and maneuver it wherever you want," the officer told the newspaper. "It's almost like a PlayStation controller. We hook our phones up to it and it's run off an app you can use to look at the cameras from the drones. It provides all your air speed information, altitude information. And the larger drone has a traffic alert, so if you have a helicopter coming in the area, it will alert you to that."
What you missed on the Sunday front pages across Colorado
The Greeley Tribune found out an officer wasn't wearing a body camera the night she shot and killed another off-duty officer after a car chase. The Longmont Times-Call reported on a new research paper at CU Boulder "that found methane emissions from drilling haven't made large increases despite big boosts in energy production across the country over a decade." The Steamboat Pilot wrote about the kinds of items that ended up recycled on a local recycling drop-off day. The Grand Junction Daily Sentinel had a big takeout on why business in the small town of Fruita is booming. The Loveland Reporter-Herald explored how local charter schools are looking to add officers in the wake of the STEM school shooting. The Gazette in Colorado Springs reported how mentally ill inmates are "starved for care." The Coloradoan in Fort Collins wrote about a MAX bus transit expansion. The Boulder Daily Camera reported the death of a man who fell 100 feet in Eldorado Canyon. The Denver Post painted a picture of Gov. Jared Polis's first months in office. The Durango Herald reported how people are still digging out avalanches in some places.
The machine learning 'unconference' recap
I wasn't able to attend The Colorado Media Project's recent "unconference" on machine learning at the University of Denver, but CMP's Alan Gottlieb has a recap about what folks learned. Journalists from Vermont to Florida showed up, along with journalists from The Colorado Independent, Longmont Observer, Chalkbeat, 5280, Vail Daily, The Colorado Sun, and Colorado Public Radio.
From the write-up:
One scheduled session focused on planning for a fall Migrahack, which will take place September 27 & 28. Migrahack will bring together journalists, academics, developers, data scientists and immigration experts to work together to bring to the public contextualized, compelling information on one of the most divisive issues of our time. Visit the organizing website here: https://portfolio.du.edu/migrahackco.
John Ferrugia of RMPBS updated the nation on the STEM school shooting
Rocky Mountain PBS news anchor and managing editor John Ferrugia appeared on PBS Newshour with Judy Woodruff, giving the nation the lay of the land following the latest school shooting in Colorado.
RMPBS, based in Denver, recently produced "Beyond Columbine," an in-depth look at "the national impact Columbine has had – not only on our school children, but for victims of other gun violence, in the realm of mental health, and on our art and culture."
Colorado post-session political narrative
With the legislative session over, public affairs coverage is likely to shift more toward politics than policy. So what's going on? A narrative is building of a Colorado Republican Party fracture over a grassroots effort to recall a newly elected Democratic House member, Tom Sullivan, whose son Alex was killed in the Aurora theater shooting because Tom Sullivan voted for the red-flag gun law on which he campaigned. Storylines pit the hardcore gun rights group Rocky Mountain Gun Owners against more established Republicans. No better time to revisit this incredible 2013 profile of RMGO leader Dudley Brown in 5280 magazine. Do read it; you'll be glad you did. Meanwhile, a new group of moderate Republicans has formed to try and rebrand their party after November's blue wave swept them out of office up and down ballots and deep into the counties. ColoradoPolitics reporter Marianne Goodland offered somewhat of an update to that faction's influence on the party (for good or ill) in a cover story for the weekly print edition.
On the Democratic side, journalists are giving our new governor, Jared Polis, a report card after his first legislative session. Writing in The Denver Post, in its news section (not opinion), Nic Garcia reported Polis is "a libertarian after all." The story looks at six things we learned about Polis since voters elected him in November. Writing in Westword, Chase Woodruff, who said he planned to vote for Polis before the election, penned a recent story outlining how some activists wonder what happened to the "bold progressive" on the campaign trail once he took office. Woodruff also found Polis is "a regular on link-sharing site Reddit, where he frequently posts articles and comments on forums like r/Neoliberal and r/Libertarian." With "a few exceptions," Woodruff notes, "Polis's makeover as a 'bold progressive' and GOP hysteria about his 'radical and extreme' agenda informed the bulk of the media's coverage of the 2018 governor's race." He also smartly points out, "With the legislature adjourned until next January, the locus of state policymaking now shifts to the sprawling executive branch that Polis oversees, giving the freshman governor more direct control than he often enjoyed during the first four months of his term."
As always, keep an eye on The Colorado Sun's ever-updated Jared Polis promise tracker, which, frankly, could be a useful model for other news outlets across the nation following an election of a new chief executive. Speaking of The Colorado Sun, the outlet, which is experimenting with a more data-driven approach to political reporting, did something different for its Polis report card.
Innovative: The @ColoradoSun created an interactive scorecard that rates the legislative achievements of Colorado's new governor based on nearly three dozen proposals in his State of the State address: https://t.co/nRK5jZ0Xqh pic.twitter.com/dVGy4Phnuu
— Corey Hutchins (@CoreyHutchins) May 23, 2019
The scorecard is also informed by "interviews with dozens of state officials, lawmakers and advocacy organizations."
"Isn't this America, after all? Well, not exactly; it's Colorado."
Brutal quote. Who said it? Steve Zansberg, the First Amendment attorney who represents news outlets in Colorado. What's the context? A judge in the school-shooting case keeping secret a whole bunch of information surrounding the case because, well, because it's Colorado so she can do that. Zansberg told Eugene Volokh for Reason magazine that he expected his phone might be ringing off the hook when reporters learned "the entire court file in [this] murder case is 'suppressed' from public inspection."
From the piece:
And yet … I've received not a single call, or email, from anyone (other than Professor Volokh) asking how this could be the case.
You may recall that last year, our State Supreme Court issued a ruling saying that in this state—unlike all others—the public enjoys no presumptive right, under the federal or state constitution, to inspect records on file in courts of law. Trial judges, like Theresa Slade in Douglas County District Court, who is presiding over the Erickson murder case, have been given essentially unfettered "discretion" to seal their court files. And, (with our State Supreme Court's blessing), they don't need to articulate any reason beyond "there are countervailing considerations" to justify their denying the public's ability to monitor the conduct of judges, prosecutors and other officers of the court.
Perhaps, Zansberg went on, "in these cash-strapped times, members of the news media cannot afford to fight battles of principle that are 'almost certainly a losing cause.' And, who knows, there is a chance the court file, or some portions of it, may be unsealed when [one of the suspects] next appears in court on June 7. Perhaps."
Last semester, Zansberg visited one of my journalism classes where he told students that in 1996, "We couldn't lose an open records case," but, more recently, it's been hard to win one. Judges, man.
colorado local news
Hutchins teaches journalism at Colorado College and writes about media for Columbia Journalism Review's United States Project
Gannett buyouts hit Colorado newspapers bookending the Front Range
New 'national alt-weekly' The News Station has roots in the Colorado cannabis world
Colorado publisher 'bullish' after buying out-of-state-owned Denver-area newspapers in a pandemic
About those Texans: KUNC reveals a 'journalist getaways' program at Colorado's tourism office
Powerhouse nonprofit news outlet ProPublica expands in the West, and 'possibly Colorado'


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Vail Valley real estate: People are being priced out of buying homes
Real Estate Real-estate | Aug 23, 2015
$374.9 million: Value of local real estate sales in the first three months of 2015.
342: Real estate transactions the first three months of 2015.
$10.25 million: Most valuable March residential transaction, in Bachelor Gulch.
$21 million: Most valuable overall March transaction, the sale of Adam's Rib Country Club.
Source: Land Title Guarantee Company
EAGLE COUNTY — Despite a relatively quiet February, the county's real estate market is off to its best first-quarter start in years. The market could be even stronger if there were more homes to sell.
The latest numbers from Land Title Guarantee Co. — which tracks completed transactions recorded with Eagle County — shows that both the number of units sold and the value of those sales are running higher than the same period in 2014 — the highest, in fact, in five years.
Through the end of March, there were 342 transactions recorded — an 8 percent increase over 2014. The value of those sales was $374.9 million — a 14 percent increase over 2014.
Those first-quarter numbers include a transaction of nearly $21 million for the former Adam's Rib Country Club and associated properties. But the residential numbers are still impressive, given a significant February drop in both transactions and value.
Craig Denton, of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Colorado Properties, does most of his work in the valley's resort markets. Denton said he and other veteran brokers expected a slow February, due largely to the 2015 FIS Alpine World Ski Championships.
"February was kind of a non-month," Denton said. "But we've been very busy in March and April."
Those contracts aren't likely to be closed and recorded until May, perhaps June.
Denton said his experience mirrors the Land Title figures, which show increasing sales strength in Beaver Creek.
"The (Beaver Creek) bright spots have been townhomes and condos," Denton said. And, while the largest residential sale — $10.25 million — was for a home in Bachelor Gulch, Denton added that overall, "sales of the large homes are kind of lagging."
There are several reasons for that, Denton said. Most of the slopeside homes at Beaver Creek are older and may need some degree of renovation. Then there's the fact that demand seems soft at the moment for large homes.
"People are down-sizing," Denton said. "They'd love for their families to come out, but with kids' schedules, it can be tough to get together."
Still, some very expensive real estate is changing hands. There were 12 transactions of $4 million or more in the first three months of 2015. And those few sales have an outsized effect on dollar volume numbers. For example, March saw 35 sales of $500,000 million or less, for a dollar volume of nearly $12 million. There were three March sales of $4 million or more, totaling just more than $21.5 million.
GOOD NEWS FOR SELLERS
The market for homes priced at $500,000 or less would be even more active if there were more homes for sale.
Barbara Hogoboom, of the Keller Williams Mountain Properties office in Eagle, said that the shortage of homes is also driving some significant price increases, particularly in the market below $400,000.
"Every time something sells, the next place goes up another 5 or 10 percent," Hogoboom, said. That's great news for sellers in the western valley, since that's where some of the biggest losses of value were seen in the wake of the 2009 collapse of the local market.
But good news for sellers is bad news for others, particularly first-time buyers. Hogoboom said many of those potential buyers are being priced out of the entry-level market.
But buyers are still out there and looking hard. Hogoboom said that a unit that's priced right will sell quickly, sometimes within days of being listed.
Again, there's a simple lack of available homes. Hogoboom said she recently looked at data from the Vail Board of Realtors' Multiple Listing Service, searching for homes priced at $400,000 or less. She found 21 units for sale in Eagle and Gypsum and another 13 under contract.
In contrast, she said, homes priced at $500,000 or more are moving more slowly in the western part of the valley.
"This market is really about location," Hogoboom said. And higher-priced homes, for now, aren't in the right location — as close as possible to the resort areas.
The increase in prices — especially in the lower-priced part of the market — is simple supply and demand. Add in the fact that foreclosures and other bank sales now account for barely 1 percent of all sales and the days of sneaking into a great deal seem to be gone.
No matter the location, though, price seems to be one of the primary factors in making a sale.
"We're seeing good, steady activity," Denton said. "If something is priced right, it goes off the market very quickly."


This month the Federal Circuit, in Dell Federal Sys., L.P et al. v. United States (Dell), granted the government's appeal of a Court of Federal Claims' (COFC) decision enjoining the Army from taking its planned corrective action. In reversing the COFC, the Circuit unequivocally rejected the heightened standard applied in several COFC cases that required an agency's planned corrective action to be "narrowly targeted" to the identified procurement defects and instead held that such actions must be reviewed under the "highly deferential" rational basis standard.
In the underlying solicitation in Dell, the Army sought to procure commercial off-the-shelf computer hardware through indefinite-delivery indefinite quantity contracts. The total estimated value of the contracts was $5 billion. The solicitation provided that offerors would be evaluated under three factors – Technical Approach, Past Performance and Price, and that contracts would be awarded to the lowest price technically acceptable offerors. The Technical Approach Factor was divided into two subfactors under which offerors were required to submit an "Equipment Submission Form" and a "Business Process Form."
Fifty-eight offerors submitted proposals, but the Army found only nine of those proposals technically acceptable. The Army declined to hold discussions, and awarded contracts to the nine technically acceptable offerors.
Several offerors filed protests at the Government Accountability Office (GAO) alleging that "clerical errors and other misunderstandings concerning the Equipment Submission Form spreadsheet had led them to submit technically unacceptable proposals." Other protesters alleged that the Army should have engaged in discussions to resolve the "spreadsheet related" misunderstandings. In response to the protest, the Army opted to take corrective action.
The Army conducted an internal review of the procurement following the GAO protests and concluded that it was appropriate to take corrective action to resolve all of the protests. The Army identified two defects in the procurement. First, the Army concluded that because the procurement was valued in excess of $100 million, it was likely required to conduct discussions under DFARS 215.306(c)(1), which it failed to do. Second, the Army concluded that the solicitation instructions regarding the Equipment Submission and Business Process Form spreadsheets contained ambiguities which "'could have been easily and quickly been resolved' before award" and addressed in discussions. As a result, the Army advised GAO that its corrective action would consist of: (1) opening discussions with all of the remaining offerors, including those who filed protests, (2) requesting final revised proposals, and (3) issuing a new award decision.
Several initial awardees protested both the Army's decision to take corrective as well as the scope of its proposed corrective action at the COFC. Recognizing an agency's broad discretion to take corrective action, the court concluded that the Army had rationally identified defects in the procurement and was reasonable in deciding to take corrective action. However, the court enjoined the Army from taking its planned corrective action, holding that "the Army's contemplated corrective action is not narrowly targeted to address the procurement defects the Army has identified." The court reasoned that because "many offerors made minor errors filling out the Army-provided spreadsheets and submitted technically unacceptable proposals as a result, . . . clarifications and reevaluation would suffice to remedy" those errors. The court went on to state that "discussions paired with re-solicitation would represent a blunderbuss approach to corrective action that neither the record nor the law supports," and was "akin to killing an ant with a sledgehammer when a rolled-up newspaper would have sufficed."
The government and two of the unsuccessful offerors appealed the COFC decision at the Federal Circuit, contending that the COFC had applied the wrong standard of review in assessing whether the Army's proposed corrective action was 'narrowly targeted' to remedy the procurement defects. The circuit agreed and explained that the COFC, in this instance (and in other corrective action decisions), had improperly relied on a heightened standard in reviewing an agency's corrective action. It went on to state that it had "never adopted this heightened 'narrowly targeted' standard" but had "consistently reviewed agencies' corrective action under the APA's 'highly differential' 'rational basis' standard," and made clear that an agency's corrective action must be reviewed under that APA standard. Accordingly, the circuit went on to state that the appropriate inquiry is not "whether a selected remedy is as narrowly targeted as possible to an identified error in the bidding process," but rather "whether the contracting agency provided a coherent and reasonable explanation of its exercise of discretion."
Applying the "rational basis" standard, the circuit determined that the Army's corrective action "to reopen the procurement and allow proposals to be revised [was] rationally related to the procurement's defects, i.e., the failure to conduct discussions and spreadsheet ambiguities." As a result, the circuit reversed the COFC's grant of an injunction and reinstated the Army's proposed corrective action.
The circuit's decision clarifies the appropriate standard of review in deciding challenges to agency corrective action. Prior to Dell, there existed a split among COFC judges as to the appropriate standard of review, with some judges adopting the "narrowly tailored" standard set forth in Amazon Web Services, and others rejecting that standard as contrary to the court's mandate to review procurement actions under a deferential reasonableness standard.
Although the circuit's decision should lead to more consistency in the outcome of corrective action protests, the impact on the viability of these protests could be significant. Although the circuit's decision suggests that previous decisions like Amazon Web Services, would have had the same result under the "rational basis" standard, this standard is highly deferential to agencies. The COFC has been seen as the more favorable forum for challenging corrective action, as GAO largely dismisses such protests so long as the proposed corrective action is appropriate to remedy the concern that caused the agency to take corrective action.
The COFC has already had occasion to rely on the circuit's decision in Dell in one issued decision. In Ideal Industries Inc. v. United States, the COFC rejected a protester's argument that the agency's decision to take corrective action by terminating the awardee's contract for convenience, amending the solicitation, and resoliciting proposals was unreasonable. In denying the protest, the COFC applied the "rational basis" test and reasoned that the original solicitation had arguably violated the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) in requiring bidders to submit pricing information beyond that required by the FAR, and that corrective action "is rational –and sometimes even required—when necessary to ensure that a procurement be conducted in compliance with 'applicable procurement statutes and regulations.'"
While it remains too early to tell, the circuit's decision in Dell, will likely make it more difficult for protesters to successfully challenge an agency's decision to take corrective action at the COFC.


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The First Out At Third
A Milwaukee Brewers blog dedicated to providing analysis using advanced statistics
RW23 Hitter Projections
RW23 Pitcher Projections
Dark Horse Cy Young Candidates
Tag Archives: Adam Lind
Appreciating Adam Lind
When the Milwaukee Brewers acquired Adam Lind from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for Marco Estrada (a trade I still believe Milwaukee won), the Brewers were hoping for two things:
1. That Lind's power would come back after a poor showing in 2014
2. That he would provide at the very least average defense at first base
Lind matched those expectations and even soared above them, like Michael Scott's heart with the eagle's nest. (If you don't get this reference, then turn on Netflix and watch The Office.) Lind whopped 20 home runs and posted 5 Defensive Runs Saved, the latter was surprising as most consider Lind a below-average defensive first baseman. The Brewers got exactly what they wanted and more out of the 32 year old, and now, because of his success, Lind is donning a Seattle Mariners uniform.
If nothing else, Lind brought stability to the dire first base situation in Milwaukee. Ever since Prince Fielder jettisoned his talents to Detroit, a revolving door of terrible players have manned first base for the Brewers. These players included Alex Gonzalez, Yuniesky Betancourt and Juan Francisco. Fielder left a void the Brewers were incapable of filling, so instead, they shoved replacement player after replacement player out there hoping for a miracle. And ds a toddler could have predicted, no miracle came. From 2012, the first year in the Post Fielder Era, to 2014, Brewers' first basemen have been worth -2.4 WAR, the third-lowest mark in Major League Baseball.
So after three years of incompetence, Doug Melvin went out and traded for Lind. In 2015, there was no platoon situation at first base, there was eye rolling because of a colossal failure to make a play (I'm looking at you, Juan Francisco). Finally, the Brewers had their man at first.
Thank you for that, Adam.
Unfortunately, the Brewers are back at square one, and are again without a first baseman. Signing a filler and drafting a high-profile one should definitely be on the to-do list soon.
This entry was posted in Short and Sweet and tagged Adam Lind, Milwaukee Brewers on December 24, 2015 by Justin Schultz.
Brewers trade Adam Lind, get three young, high-ceiling arms
A team can never have enough pitching depth, a thought-process Milwaukee Brewers GM David Stearns is clearly well-aware of. On Wednesday, Stearns shipped veteran first baseman Adam Lind to the Seattle Mariners in return for three right-handed starting pitchers who are still in their teenage years.
I guess Stearns wasn't kidding about making the club younger.
The three new Brewers' pitchers, Daniel Missaki (19), Carlos Herrera (18) and Freddy Peralta (19) have all shown the ability to rack up high-strikeout rates during their limited time in the minors, meaning their ceilings should be considered relatively high. The only thing better than a young hurler who can strike batters out is three young hurlers who can strike batters out.
Stearns had plenty of nice things to say about the newest members of his squad.
"We are excited to add three young starting pitchers, all under 20 years old, to our minor-league system. All three possess quality arms with an advanced feel for the strike zone."
Stearns also said the opportunity to acquire three teenage pitchers was "unique" while also admitting there is risk.
Missaki, considered the best arm of the three, has made 24 appearances (20 starts), split between Rookie Ball and Single A, as a professional ballplayer. Over 11 starts in Rookie Ball in 2014, he boasted a 2.76 ERA and an equally impressive 3.14 FIP. But more importantly, he struck out over 26% of hitters faced while only walking 6.8%. His walk rate even improved when he was promoted to Single-A ball this past season.
At 6'0″, Missaki is a bit undersized for a pitcher. He's also not a blow-it-by-you type of pitcher by any means as his fastball sits 89-91 mph, but he has a solid changeup and curve that he's able to work in. Does he remind anyone else of Mike Fiers?
Missaki underwent Tommy John surgery this past May, so it might be awhile before we see his arm in action down in the minors next season.
Like Missaki, Carlos Herrera has a fantastic knack for throwing strikes. In his only season as a minor leaguer, Herrera struck out 8.21 batter per nine innings while walking just 1.46 per nine. That turned into a remarkable professional debut season (3.26 ERA and 3.00 FIP). Herrera will enter and finish the 2016 season as an 18 year old, so there's still plenty of time to grow as a player and improve his pitches.
After an excellent rookie season in the minors in 2013 and a disappointing season in 2014, Freddy Peralta was absolutely dominant this past season. He made 11 appearances (9 starts) and posted a 10.58 K/9 and 1.26 BB/9, equaling a 25.3% K-BB%, which is a great tool to use when projecting a player's future.
Peralta can get up to 94 MPH, and as former FanGraphs' prospect writer Kiley McDaniel wrote, has "a clean arm action and delivery with a chance to start."
To sum up, the Brewers are now in possession of three young and talented arms, and the price for them was relatively low in Adam Lind. At 32 years and expensive, Lind was never going to be a part of Stearns' vision for the team. Almost everyone in baseball, including Lind, knew he was going to be traded sometime this offseason. The Brewers will, however, miss his ability to get on base and play above-average defense at first.
While I like the talent the Brewers acquired, I was expecting them to land a third baseman, which is still a glaring hole on Milwaukee's roster. Mariners' third base prospect D.J. Peterson's name was thrown around for a few days leading up to the trade, but Seattle may not have wanted to pay such a high price for a one-year rental.
The Brewers acquired three pitchers who could have bright futures, but we must be aware of the fact that there's a ton of risk involved. These are, for the most part, unknown and unproven prospects with small sample sizes. But nonetheless, this was a good trade for Milwaukee.
This entry was posted in Trade Analysis and tagged Adam Lind, Carlos Herrera, D.J. Peterson, Daniel Missaki, Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers, Seattle Mariners on December 9, 2015 by Justin Schultz.
The projections: What I got right
As you know, baseball projections, or any projections for that matter, are never a sure thing, especially when they consist of nothing but educated guesses, as mine do. Projection systems like Steamer and ZiPS, which you can find on FanGraphs lovely site, are much more accurate, because they use complicated and in-depth formulas and models to make their decisions on players. As for me, I simply did some research and predicted the results on my own.
But even though my projections were purely guesses, I still had my share of correct calls. Here's where I went right:
Adam Lind
Projection .279 18 .353 122 .340 0.181 18.7% 7.8% 1.5
Season Stats .277 20 .351 119 .360 0.183 17.5% 11.5% 2.2
Not to pat myself on the back or anything, but I was dead on when it came to projecting LInd. Aside from his on-base percentage and walk rate, I was just one or two points off on every offensive statistic. His WAR was higher than I thought it'd be; credit that to his glove. His 5 Defensive Runs Saved at first base was far and away a career high.
Though it's not saying much, Lind had one of the best offensive seasons on the Brewers in 2015. He got on base more than any Brewer not named Gerardo Parra, and he rediscovered his power swing after hitting just six home runs a year ago.
2016 outlook: Don't be surprised if Lind is traded this winter. New general manager David Stearns already cleaned house with the coaching staff and has reorganized the front office. It's only a matter of time before he starts moving player personnel.
Ryan Braun
Projection .308 26 .368 140 .378 .220 18.2% 8.9% 4.5
Season Stats .285 25 .366 129 .356 .213 20.2% 9.5% 2.8
Okay, okay, I know there's a huge discrepancy in Braun's projected Wins Above Replacement and his actual WAR. I thought he was going to improve at least a little in right field since he had a whole year there under his belt. but he was just as pitiful as he was in 2014.
However, my prediction that he would transform back into one of baseball's best hitters came true. Braun put up his highest ISO since 2012 and finished 29th in all of baseball in weighted runs created plus.
2016 outlook: With his extension just about to kick in, it'll be tough to trade Braun, no matter how badly Stearns wants to. Nonetheless, Braun proved he can still hit with the elite, and he should continue that next season.
Scooter Gennett
Projection .268 6 .310 95 .314 .125 17.0% 4.1% 1.4
Season Stats .264 6 .289 77 .294 .117 17.4% 3.1% 0.2
As regular readers know, I've never been a fan of Scooter Gennett. Every time I see him at the plate, I shed a tear for the departed Rickie Weeks. Sigh.
I knew Gennett was going to have a below-average season, which is why I'm counting this as a win for my projections. Yet, I didn't expect him to be so abysmal that I was rooting for Hector Gomez to take over his second-base job. He played no better than a replacement player. Offensively, he was useless, and his defense took a big slide as well.
2016 outlook: Honestly, I can't imagine Gennett having a major-league job next year. Oh wait. The Brewers are rebuilding, which means Gennett will absolutely be on the team's roster, unfortunately. Unless Milwaukee is ready to give one of their younger prospects a try. I mean, why not?
Jeremy Jeffress
xFIP
Projection 2.62 3.11 3.00 2.59 4 21.9% 9.6% 57.4% 1.0
Season Stats 2.65 3.22 3.00 2.85 5 23.5% 7.7% 58.2% 0.8
Before the season started, I wrote that Jeremy Jeffress would be MLB's next top closer sometime in the near future, and after the stand-out numbers he racked together as the setup man in 2015, I'm even more confident in saying that. I called this one almost perfectly.
Jeffress is a strikeout and ground-ball pitcher, and he proved that over a full season for the first time in his career. He struck out almost nine batters per game and his GB% was the 17th-best among qualified relievers, mostly due to his power sinker.
2016: Jeffress will again be Craig Counsell's go-to-guy in high leverage situations next season, and he even could slide into the closer's role if the Brewers choose to shed money and a veteran by trading Francisco Rodriguez.
You can check out my full list of projections here:
This entry was posted in Projections and tagged Adam Lind, Jeremy Jeffress, Milwaukee Brewers, Player Projections, Ryan Braun, Scooter Gennett on October 20, 2015 by Justin Schultz.
Predicting who gets traded and who stays
We are now at the All-Star break, and for teams sitting at the bottom of the standings, like the Milwaukee Brewers are, it's a welcome furlough. The four-days off is also usually the beginning of trade season, as teams are either getting ready to stack up for a postseason run or start shedding veterans in order to ignite the rebuilding process. In case you don't know anything about anything, the Brewers will be doing the latter. At 38-52, they have the second-worst record in Major League Baseball. They are officially sellers.
Milwaukee is currently in possession of a handful of players who contending teams should be calling about. They have veterans with expiring contracts, but they also have players who are on the cusp of their primes, making them extremely coveted.
The Brewers won't trade their entire roster (even though I'm not against the idea), but it's safe to say they'll be sending a few players out of the city known for its beer. So let's make some predictions.
Players who will get traded
OF Gerardo Parra – Numerous teams are in need of outfield depth (see Kansas City), and with the way Parra has performed offensively, his name is one of the hottest on the block. Of outfielders with at least 300 plate appearances, he has the 13th-highest wRC+, not to mention his on-base percentage of .344 would be his best mark since 2011. Parra is as good as gone.
SP Kyle Lohse – I know his ERA and everything else you can possibly look at is downright terrible, but I still have this feeling that a team is going to take a flyer on him, for the right price, of course. The Brewers won't get much back and they'll probably to have pay some of his remaining salary, but with Lohse being a free agent after the season, why wouldn't a team in need of a back-end starter go after him?
3B Aramis Ramirez – Every team needs hitting and Ramirez can still provide that at 37 years old. He's a notorious slow starter and this season was definitely no exception. His numbers are finally beginning to improve, however. After producing a .272 wOBA in June, he crushed the ball in July and finished the month with a .366 wOBA. He, like Lohse, is in the last year of his contract (and career). He's a rental who a team will trade for.
1B Adam Lind – He's been the best player on the Brewers in 2015 and is probably the best hitter on the market. He's already put up 2.1 WAR while creating an impressive 43% more runs than league average. Lind could bring back a fairly decent haul, especially compared to the other guys I listed above. If a team is looking for a high OBP player who hits home runs, Lind is the man for the job.
RP Francisco Rodriguez – I'll admit I was wrong about Rodriguez. I thought he would be equally as bad as he was in 2014, but as it turns out, he's been lights-out. His strikeout rate (30.8%) is back in line with his career norms and he's no longer getting bit by home runs. He would be a very valuable add to a bullpen in need of a high-leverage reliever. The only thing stopping a team for making a play for him is his big contract. He's owed $7.5 million in 2016 with a $6 million club option in '17 ($2 million buyout). That's a lot of money for a closer who's been up and down in the past few seasons. Still, I think the Brewers will trade him yet again, but this time, there will be no reunion between the two.
Players who won't get traded
OF Carlos Gomez – The Brewers should trade him, but I think they'll wait another year. They need to be able to sell tickets in 2016, in spite of the talent-less roster they're sure to put together, and people will pay to see Gomez. I feel like that is a terrible reason not to trade someone, especially since his value now is higher than it will be next year, but it's what the Brewers will presumably do.
C Jonathan Lucroy – Lucroy's going to stay in Milwaukee as well. The Brewers will have to be unbelievably blown away in order to trade a great catcher with a team-friendly contract like Lucroy. I think Lucroy will be involved in a mid-season trade next season, but not this one.
RP Jonathan Broxton – Making the playoffs and doing well once you're there is nearly impossible without a quality bullpen. Basically everyone is looking for bullpen depth. By old-school numbers Broxton has been less than quality in 2015, which is why I don't see him being moved. The Brewers would get next to nothing in return for him. so maybe their mindset is, why bother?
SS Jean Segura – I struggled with Segura. I can easily see him being traded, seeing as how Orlando Arcia is coming for his job. But which team is going to give up what the Brewers demand for him? That's the big question here. Segura is a young and defensively talented shortstop who hasn't hit much to date. What's he really worth? Because that's unknown, I think Segura stays put.
This entry was posted in Trade Talk and tagged Adam Lind, Aramis Ramirez, carlos gomez, Gerardo Parra, jean segura, Jonathan Broxton, Jonathan Lucroy, Kyle Lohse, Milwaukee Brewers on July 13, 2015 by Justin Schultz.
Grade the game (July 1, 2015)
After each (most, at least) game, I'll write a short but of course exciting recap of said game. Then, you the reader, will have the opportunity to give the Brewers a grade based on their performance. Simple enough, right?
Kyle Lohse (6.28 ERA/5.09 FIP) actually won a game, beating out Aaron Harang (3.56 ERA/4.00 FIP). Harang could barely get an out as he gave up eight runs on 14 hits in five innings. In all, the Brewers accumulated 17 hits, and found out there is actually a team they're better than. Milwaukee won the game 9-5, their fourth-consecutive victory. The top four hitters in Milwaukee's lineup combined to go 9-for-19 with seven runs batted in. Scooter Gennett (.246 OBP) led the way with two doubles and a triple, but had another fielding error.
The play that made the game worth watching: Adam Lind mashes a two-run homer in the first inning.
Stat of the day: Lohse went 3-for-5 at the plate, raising his wOBA from .106 to .183.
My grade: A
Lohse actually pitched OK and the offense destroyed Harang. Give 'em an A.
Grades so far (beginning on June 29)
F: 0
This entry was posted in Grade the Game and tagged Aaron Harang, Adam Lind, Kyle Lohse, Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies on July 1, 2015 by Justin Schultz.
Hitter projections for the 2015 Milwaukee Brewers
It's that time of year again, when projections are being unleashed and the biased trolls of the internet emerge from their caves. I love it.
People say that projections are like throwing darts at a dart board and hoping it sticks where you want it too. Well, if that's the case, then the dart's trajectory has been calculated countless of times and the dart board is bigger than the average one. Projection systems, like Steamer and ZiPS, are the most accurate darts we currently have at our disposable. So many components (i.e. park factors, age, injury history, talent) play into their forecasts that it's asinine not to put at least a little merit in them.
With that being said, my projections are not based on a mathematical model. My brain doesn't possess the functionality it requires to build one or to even interpret simple mathematical equations. For someone who is so invested in sabermetrics, I don't know a lick of math. So, there's my warning about my projections.
On the other hand, my projections are more than just guess work. I've poured over each player's statistical history, taken injuries and age into account, looked at splits, went over other projection systems and basically every other thing I could possibly do to make sure my projections were well-informed.
Here are my hitter projections for the 2015 Milwaukee Brewers (subject to change before the season commences).
C Jonathan Lucroy .303 13 .370 131 .377 .159 10.3% 11.4% 4.9
1B Adam Lind .279 18 .353 122 .340 .181 18.7% 7.8% 1.5
2B Scooter Gennett .268 6 .310 95 .314 .125 17.0% 4.1% 1.4
3B Aramis Ramirez .280 16 .324 110 .330 .138 15.0% 6.5% 1.9
SS Jean Segura .255 5 .295 79 .310 .090 12.3% 5.5% 1.3
OF Khris Davis .257 19 .335 112 .308 .208 20.6% 5.2% 1.1
OF Carlos Gomez .287 22 .366 131 .350 .193 22.1% 7.7% 5.3
OF Ryan Braun .308 26 .368 140 .378 .220 18.2% 8.9% 4.5
OF Gerardo Parra .270 5 .309 86 .312 .122 17.7% 7.0% 1.0
C Martin Maldonado .241 3 .311 97 .322 .137 22.0% 9.1% 0.4
INF Elian Herrera .231 0 .269 66 .274 .071 25.4% 3.4% -0.3
OF Logan Schafer .210 1 .250 51 .281 .099 19.8% 7.7% -0.2
OF Shane Peterson .271 3 .315 98 .329 .100 24.0% 9.1% 0.2
INF Luis Jimenez .236 1 .270 79 .276 .115 21.0% 2.1% -0.3
Total .264 138 .318 100 .322 .140 18.9% 6.8% 22.7
As an offense, the Brewers will be right around league average, which is an upgrade from 2014. The team's OBP and wOBA should be slightly better, thanks to a hopefully healthy Braun and with Lind now in the fold. However, walk rate will continue to haunt the Brewers.
I have only two players reaching the 20 home run plateau, but Khris Davis and even Lind could easily hit that number. Davis will need to improve on the changeup, though.
There are a few other players I'd like to talk more about to give you a better understanding of why I believe they'll perform like my projections predict.
A lot of Braun's struggles last season can be blamed on his thumb, and if you think performance-enhancing drugs had anything to do with it, you clearly didn't watch enough Brewers' games. And that's not me being biased. I'll never wear his jersey again because of what he did. His thumb numbness made it hard for him to pull the ball, and he would roll over on it more times than not. Braun's career average when pulling the ball sits at .406, but he hit just .298 on balls to left field in '14. Imagine swinging at an inside pitch without being able to feel your thumb. It just sounds brutal. If Braun's thumb is healthy (all signs point to that it is), he should return to MVP-form. His WAR would've been higher if not for his lackluster defense in right field (-6.6 UZR).
As long as the Brewers compete, Gomez has a real chance to take home the 2015 MVP award. His projected 5.3 WAR is the highest on the Brewers, not only because I believe his walk rate (and in turn his OBP ) will increase, but because his defensive stats should get a boost after an uncharacteristically low performance last season.
I went more in-depth of my expected woes for Gennett here, but the fact is, he can't hit left-handed pitchers. Everyone keeps bringing up the small sample size argument, which is just fine and dandy until you look at his numbers against southpaws in the minors. There's no small sample size there, and he was terrible. Gennett can "laugh at his splits" all he wants, but being without a platoon partner is really going to hurt him, and the Brewers will regret not finding one if they, in fact, end up sticking with him. Frankly, Gennett will be a below-average hitter in 2015.
Acquiring Lind was maybe the best low-key acquisition of the winter. Finally, the Brewers have someone to shore up first base, and finally, the Brewers have a left-handed power hitter who can actually get on base (.369 OBP over the last two seasons). His 7.8% walk rate would be a welcome site to a lineup that doesn't walk. I like Lind a little more than Steamer does when it comes to OBP and wOBA, but Steamer projects him to have 21 home runs while I have him hitting 18. His horrible defense will cost the Brewers a few runs/wins, which is why I have him as a 1.5 win player.
Shane Peterson
Peterson's my sleeper, and should ultimately replace Schafer on the bench (fingers crossed). Peterson's one of those rare players that can man center field, and then move to first base the next day. Versatile is the word. He has pop in his bat and should maintain a somewhat okay OBP in spite of his Mount Everest strikeout rate.
There you have it. My pitcher projections will be out in the next couple of days as well, so make sure you give them a good look over as you wait for this monstrosity of a winter to be over.
If you have any questions about my projections, please comment or find me on Twitter Follow @FirstOutAtThird
This entry was posted in Projections and tagged Adam Lind, Jonathan Lucroy, Milwaukee Brewers, Player Projections, Ryan Braun, Scooter Gennett on January 15, 2015 by Justin Schultz.
Constructing the best possible Brewers' batting order
Not many baseball teams, if any, construct their lineup correctly.
Well, correctly as deemed by Tom Tango, Mitchel G. Litchman and Andrew Dolphin of the statistical bible "The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball". If you want to learn things like run expectancy, leveraging relievers, platoon splits and, wait for it, building a batting order, then this is the book for you. It is so insightful and eye-opening that it should be on every GM's desk. Did you hear that, Doug? Read it.
But enough advocacy (I promise my endorsement was not compensated in any way). Based on "The Book", I'm going to attempt to build the Milwaukee Brewers' batting order that will produce the absolute most runs down to the smallest decimal point. Instead of essentially rewriting "The Book" to explain why my batting order looks the way it does, I'm going to provide you with a couple of snippets from it. That way, I won't be sued for plagiarism, and you'll understand where I'm coming from.
The Book Says: Your best three hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2, and #4 slots. Your fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and #2 slots will have players with more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality.
According to this, there's no way in K-Rod's leg kick Ryan Braun should be batting in the three-hole as he is clearly one of the Brewers' top three hitters (best, probably). And this makes sense. Hitters in the one, two and four spots have higher run values over the three spot when it comes to singles, doubles and triples (home runs come out about even). For example, when you modify run values by plate appearances, if a two-hole hitter hits a double, it's worth .799 runs versus .779 runs it'd be worth from a three-hole hitter. The difference is microscopic, but hey, I want the best possible lineup.
I now have to decide who the best three hitters on the Brewers are and put them in slots #1, #2 and #4 in order to utilize my lineup most effectively. I want my first two hitters to be capable of drawing walks. Therefore, Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez will take the top two spots, with Braun coming in at the cleanup position. Lucroy (10.1 BB%) and Gomez (7.3 BB%) walked the most among the Brewers last year, and since home runs are worth the highest run total from the cleanup spot, Braun is the clear candidate there (his home run totals should rebound in '15).
You may be wondering why I decided to bat Lucroy ahead of Gomez. It's simple, really. Lucroy walks more and strikes out at a lesser rate.
But who are the Brewers fourth- and fifth-best hitters? I'm going with Aramis Ramirez and Adam Lind. Compared to the rest of Milwaukee's lineup, they're light years ahead in terms of offense. They can both hit for power and put up respectable averages. I'll decide where to put them in my order after we talk more about what "The Book" has to say.
The Book Says: Worry about the strikeout only if you have the opportunity to use a pinch hitter or reliever. Don't consider the strikeout, or the ability of the hitter to move runners over on outs, when constructing your starting lineup.
I shouldn't care if Gomez strikes out a ton, so him hitting in the two slot is okay. At the very least, he'll stay out of the double play. Speaking of which:
The Book Says: The propensity to ground into, or avoid, double plays is an important consideration for players at the extreme double play levels. It is also an important consideration for leadoff hitters in the NL.
The three-hole hitter comes to the plate a lot more with two outs than the five-hole hitter, meaning he has a smaller chance of grounding into two outs. Lind grounded into eight double plays in 2014, and 20 the year before that, but, luckily, 2013 was an extreme and that number should shrink. The last three years prior to that, he averaged 10.6 double plays. In comparison, Ramirez grounded into 18 double plays in 2014, and with his age climbing the staircase and concurrent leg problems, he should post a number similar to that. Since Ramirez has a knack for double plays, the three spot is best suited for him, with Lind following Braun in the five spot.
Since I've determined hitters one through five, that only leaves Khris Davis, Jean Segura, Scooter Gennett and the pitcher, and "The Book" tells me to put them in descending order of quality. While doing that, I also want to split up the lefty (Gennett) and put Davis behind Ramirez to reinforce the power.
Now comes the Tony La Russa part.
The Book Says: The second leadoff hitter theory exists. You can put your pitcher in the eighth slot and gain a couple of extra runs a year.
Segura has an insurmountable ground ball rate (59.6%), and with a player like Gennett who hits a lot of singles, it would be foolish to place Segura behind him. A pitcher is more likely to strikeout, and one out is always better than two. Therefore, the pitcher should bat eighth and Segura will assume the role of the second leadoff hitter.
Here's the finished product.
1. Jonathan Lucroy
2. Carlos Gomez
3. Aramis Ramirez
4. Ryan Braun
5. Adam Lind
6. Khris Davis
7. Scooter Gennett
8. Pitcher
9. Jean Segura
This will not be what the Brewers' lineup looks like next season, probably at any point. I'm saying this without any prior knowledge, but it wouldn't be a bombshell if Ron Roenicke has never heard of "The Book". He's more of an old-school guy and shies away from the analytics, except for when it comes to moving his infielders all over the place.
And although there's not a butterfly's wings chance of this batting order being written on the lineup card come the season, this lineup would most likely score more runs than any other combination.
This entry was posted in Lineup Lingo and tagged Adam Lind, Aramis Ramirez, Jonathan Lucroy, Milwaukee Brewers, Ryan Braun on January 13, 2015 by Justin Schultz.
Who are the Brewers getting in Adam Lind?
First base has been a cause for concern for the Milwaukee Brewers ever since the mighty Prince Fielder packed his bags after the 2011 season. The team has gone through the likes of Lyle Overbay, Travis Ishikawa, Alex Gonzalez, Mark Reynolds and even Yuniesky Betancourt to try to fill the void, but as you can probably tell by those names, the experiment went awry.
But the Brewers are still trying. On Satuday, the Brewers acquired first baseman Adam Lind from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for RHP Marco Estrada. We all know who Marco Estrada is; a decent long reliever and a dreadful starter. But who is Adam Lind and what can the Brewers expect from him?
Lind is 31 years old and has been in the major leagues since 2006. Lind has hit over .300 only twice in his career, but batting average is hardly a good measurement of a player's offensive production, so don't let that scare you. The left-handed hitter has a career .342 wOBA and 110 wRC+. To put that in comparison, Jonathan Lucroy has an identical career wOBA and a 113 wRC+. Lind also brings power to Milwaukee; he's hit 20+ home runs in three seasons, including 2009 in which he blasted 35 homers.
Lind has never found consistency when it comes to getting on base, but has seen his on-base percentage rise over the last four seasons.
2011 .295
Average .337
Milwaukee's first basemen have only managed a .290 OBP since 2012. The addition of Lind will surely improve that.
Lind will need a platoon partner, however. Like Scooter Gennett (I miss you, Rickie), Lind has an extremely hard time hitting southpaws and only saw 33 at-bats against them in 2014. He's a career .212 hitter when a lefty is on the mound. But this shouldn't be a problem and I don't believe the Brewers need to go out and find a right-handed hitting first baseman. They can just use Jonathan Lucroy.
When the Brewers face a left-handed pitcher, move Lucroy to first and Martin Maldonado will spell him at catcher. Maldonado is a phenomenal defensive catcher and about average with the bat, and Lucroy has played in 28 games at first, so it's not like experience is an issue. Obviously, this shouldn't/won't happen every time they face a lefty as Lucroy needs his rest, but for the most part, it's a perfectly sound solution. No available first baseman is as good a hitter as Lucroy, anyway.
On the defensive side, Lind leaves a lot to be desired. The last two seasons he's posted a -3.9 UZR which is just below average, but I'm sure the Brewers won't mind his defensive flaws if he can make noise with his bat.
Before the trade went down, the Blue Jays had exercised Lind's $7.5 million option for 2015. Lind also has a $8 million team option for 2016.
So to recap, the Brewers traded a potential non-tender candidate in Marco Estrada for a good hitting first baseman who could be with the team beyond this upcoming season. This was a great trade by Doug Melvin and Co.
This entry was posted in Trade Analysis and tagged Adam Lind, Marco Estrada, Milwaukee Brewers, Toronto Blue Jays on November 1, 2014 by Justin Schultz.
Dark horse Cy Young candidates for 2020
Pitcher projections for the 2020 Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers should sign Collin McHugh
Attempting to use Eric Lauer's success against the Dodgers to build a better pitcher
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San Francisco, DC mayors call for more federal aid: 'I don't think it's a lot to ask'
The image by Андрей Бобровский is licensed under CC BY 3.0
The federal government must provide more financial aid to help cities avoid economic ruin, Washington, DC Mayor Muriel Bowser and San Francisco Mayor London Breed said during a Washington Post Live event Thursday.
San Francisco could face a budget shortfall of between $1.1 billion and $1.7 billion, Breed said. Meanwhile, Bowser said the $498 million that Washington, DC was allocated through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act is not enough, as other states received minimums of $1.25 billion in aid — despite some having a smaller population than DC.
Given encouraging signs that the rate of infection is starting to slow, and apparent "social distancing fatigue" among residents, both mayors said they are looking to cautiously reopen their economies but cannot let up yet. "We want to get back to business too, and part of that is being able to keep our cases down," Bowser said.
Early in the coronavirus pandemic, there were warnings that cities' economic recovery would be a "long road" and local leaders should not let up on social distancing policies designed to support residents' public health. Bowser and Breed's statements put into stark context the financial costs of coronavirus and mitigation strategies, highlighting complications to economic recovery outside of direct health concerns.
"I don't think that it's a lot to ask to get these resources directly in the hands of the people right now who need it the most and to work with cities on our economic recovery in the long-term," Breed said.
Their call for more federal dollars came on the day Congress passed a $484 billion relief package, which includes $321 billion for small business aid through the new Paycheck Protection Program. State and local government relief will likely be among future measures that Congress debates, NPR reports.
Like many of their peers in U.S. cities and states, Breed and Bowser both have appointed task forces dedicated to evaluating when certain businesses can reopen and under what conditions. Bowser signaled an openness to in-person summer school camps and other recreational opportunities, if appropriate.
"It's going to change, life as we know it, but we're hoping that we're able to allow people to get back to things they want to do," Breed said. "But more importantly, we need to open up our economy in a responsible way so that we don't see a significant surge that we're definitely not prepared for."
Breed and Bowser said even if economies were to reopen soon, recovery will take time in their cities, especially for businesses where large gatherings are common like restaurants, entertainment and sports venues. Bowser said extra federal money would help the city be "made whole."
Breed said it is important to be safe, but also to get people back to work soon as millions have filed for unemployment.
"It's not just about access to services, it's about the livelihoods of the people in these industries," Breed said. "But we also have to be careful about not jumping the gun."
Transit gets $25B in federal stimulus package By Chris Teale • March 30, 2020
Filed Under: Governance
Anna Moneymaker via Getty Images
Living wage ordinances' greatest effect may be on public opinion
The living wage movement fought to boost pay for city contractor employees. These efforts had limited community effects, but they likely laid the groundwork for today's movement toward higher minimum wages, researchers said.
By Adina Solomon • Dec. 13, 2021
Latest in Governance
The pitfalls of place-based revitalization in Atlanta, San Diego: reports
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Many people realize that it is a good idea to wear a mouthguard for contact sports like football, but not everyone is aware that even non-contact sports like gymnastics, skateboarding, horseback riding, biking, and so forth can result in accidents that damage your teeth and alter your life. That's why, if your son or daughter is at risk, you should plan to visit our Newburgh, NY dentist's office to get them the protection they need.
Dr. Petrosino ensures that our devices are far better than those over-the-counter "boil and bite" mouthguards you've probably come across at the store. Here's the difference: the athletic mouthguards we craft here are custom-fitted to your child's unique mouth to provide them with more comfort and proper coverage.
Check out this informative video clip below from the American Dental Association that looks at the importance of athletic mouthguards. Then be sure to follow up with our team to schedule your next preventive dentistry appointment at Smile Design Dental.