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Tag Archives: Deterrence Stability
Counterforce: a Threat to Nuclear Deterrence Stability
Posted on September 7, 2022 by strategicdialogues
(Published in the IPCS web journal. Available at the following link: http://ipcs.org/comm_select.php?articleNo=5829 )
Early atomic bombs were crude city-annihilators. Their ability to bring enormous and horrific destruction to the civilian domain was demonstrated by the USA on 06 August 1945 when the Japanese city of Hiroshima was devastated; and if that were not enough, a second atomic weapon was detonated over the city of Nagasaki three days later. The two caused 214,000 primary fatalities to a combined population of 613,000 and an unknowable number of secondary and tertiary casualties.
Targeting Concepts
The use of nuclear weapons is governed by two basic targeting concepts: "Counterforce" and "Countervalue". The former emphasizes strikes on military forces both nuclear and conventional, their infrastructure and logistics; while the latter focuses on economic targets and population centres. A Countervalue doctrine is limited in complexity and demands relatively simpler capabilities. During the Cold-War It led to a rather macabre belief that "assurance of mass destruction" would bring about a balance-of-terror which in turn guaranteed stability. It led to an amassing of arsenals whose aggregate yield could destroy the world many times over. The Counterforce doctrine, on the other hand, suggests that nuclear war could be limited and nuclear forces could be used to disarm the adversary of nuclear weapons; almost as if, the side adopting a Counterforce doctrine controls retaliation by the victim.
Both targeting concepts lose sight of a cardinal principle of international relations; that war has political purpose. Destruction of purpose debases the application of force to a savage all-obliterating clash. Ironically, we note today how nuclear armed states are, adopting postures that increase prospects of the use of nuclear weapons in armed conflicts.
Bernard Brodie, in 1946, provided an intellectual framework for avoiding nuclear war. In his seminal work The Absolute Weapon (New York, Harcourt Brace, 1946, P76) he suggested: "Thus far the chief purpose of our military establishment has been to win wars. From now on its chief purpose must be to avert them. It can have almost no other useful purpose". Brodie recognised that the possibility of 'total destruction' inherent in the use of nuclear weapons had made victory unachievable, at the same time it's political value lay in the threat it posed to manipulate an adversary's mind.
Evolution of Nuclear Weapons & Political Purpose
In examining the evolution of the nuclear deterrence theory, we note there is an allegorical tendency to correlate the nature of war with the changing characteristics of the nuclear weapon. War, as Clausewitz pointed out, has an enduring nature that is defined by four continuities: a political dimension, a human dimension as characterised by military genius, pervasiveness of uncertainty and the contest of opposing resolve. All of these exist within an historical, social and political context. While the dynamics that govern characteristics of nuclear weapons, is in the main, influenced by human ability to harness technology. Regardless, it is apparent that if either political purpose is lost or the human dimension is removed; then war itself is deprived of meaning.
Given man's facility to exploit technology, nuclear weapons have evolved in three distinct phases: first, from a weapon of use to an instrument that assured a balance of terror. Second, the threat of mutually guaranteed destruction developed into a contrivance for bargaining and devising compromises. Third, it comes full circle to a bizarre situation that today attempts to again justify nuclear war fighting. Such a progression of the weapon has lost sight of the political and human impact of use.
The Counterforce Strategic Narrative
For a nation, a strategic narrative is a lodestone to avoid a return to a trauma of the past around which the narrative was built and accepted. Its essence is often reflected in simple but pithy mantras such as "War on Terror", "Mutually Assured Destruction" or "Counterforce doctrine". The narrative that governs policies of nuclear armed states has, largely, been stimulated by that which emerged in the USA and been systematised in the wake of the first nuclear attacks, through the Cold-War and in its aftermath of a multi-polar world.
In today's strategic milieu, the lines between nuclear arsenals and conventional weapons have dangerously become intertwined as new offensive technologies such as precision hypersonic glide vehicles are introduced that pose a potent threat to the security of nuclear weapons and the stability of a deterrent relationship. The narrative in turn urges a "nuclear counterforce" strategy which determines policy and fashions a first-strike strategic posture. And so we note with some alarm, that a nuclear weapon state when confronted by another may decide to use precision nuclear or conventional counterforce in a first strike to annul the possibility of being a victim of a nuclear attack. In this context the "reported" Russian policy Escalate to De-escalate and the US deployment of low yield nuclear weapons is confounding as it presumes total domination of the escalation ladder.
The blurring of conventional and nuclear deterrence is apparent by the increasing integration of conventional and nuclear warfighting doctrines. The US 2018 Nuclear Posture Review stresses the possibility of nuclear weapon use in response to non-nuclear attacks is a case in point. The long held view that nuclear weapons are exceptional has been set aside and in its place a dramatic escalation to nuclear warfighting is advocated. That, such use could provoke an unpredictable set of nuclear responses has been, eerily, blanked-out. Concepts that promote 'first use' of nuclear weapons are not new, for tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) were deployed with decentralised release authority during the Cold War. Recognising the catastrophic hazards of pre-delegation, Presidential Nuclear Initiatives attempted to remove all TNWs from the battlefield.
Counterforce strategies intrinsically translate to heightened nuclear risks as it prompts a 'first strike'. It is also a flawed premise that response to nuclear escalation can ever be predictable and controlled. To the contrary, foreclosure of the option to use nuclear weapons first would not only enhance the stability of deterrence and reduce the role played by nuclear weapons in security policy; but also provide greater political legitimacy. Therefore, to adopt a 'No-First-Use' nuclear-policy provides sagacity to a troubled world in its deference for greater security and, indeed, for survival.
Posted in Geopolitics and Strategic Impulses, Maritime Security, Nuclear Issues | Tagged Counterforce Strategy, Deterrence Stability, Nuclear Detterence, Nuclear Weapons & Political Purpose, Strategic Narrative | Leave a reply
The Elephant and the Dilemma of Nuclear Force Planning
This article was first published by the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies in April 2013.
Keywords: South Asia Nuclearization, Sino-Pak relations, India's Nuclear Doctrine, Deterrence Stability, Pakistan's nuclear weapons program
One of the open secrets of the Indian security establishment is the evolution of its nuclear weapons capability. The process did not follow any established norms that guide the discernment of theory into a security strategy or the rendition of technology into a nuclear stockpile. Rather, its development was driven by a single-point politico-scientific coterie stirred by the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) and Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) combine. The leadership neither saw strategic significance in a more eclectic approach nor clarity that a theory did not endanger political ideology or scientific savvy, but was an instrument to fertilise both.
From Indian folklore, a story is told of six blind men and an elephant. The allegory underscores the limits of individual perceptions when left in stove pipes without an integrating hypothesis. Viewed in perspective of the enormous destructive power of the nuclear weapon, now in the hands of the new "destroyer of worlds", it presented a terrifying and unspeakable nature of the truth, much as the elephant to the blind. To marry political issues and technological capabilities with military operational practices was the unheeded scream of the previous quarter of a century.
It was only after Pokhran II in 1998 and the Kargil episode that the real nature of nuclear weapons was emphasized and the imperative of military involvement dawned on the establishment. This realisation took the form of a declared nuclear doctrine with a classified section that drew a roadmap for enabling and operationalizing a 'No First Use' doctrine. Born of the desire not to repeat the Cold War experience, and a belief in Brodie's maxim that nuclear weapons had changed the nature of warfare; nuclear war avoidance became primary to the political objective. While this critical discernment was slow in the offing and the product of a tangled approach, there can be no denying its rational strength and its progression.
A deterrent relationship is a balance founded on rationality. On the part of the 'deterree', there is rationality in the conviction of disproportionate risks of hostile action; and on the part of the 'deterrer', there is rationality of purpose and transparency in confirming the reality of the risks involved in a manner that strategic miscalculations are avoided. The exceptional feature of this transaction is that the roles are reversible, provided it is in the common interest to maintain stability, and this is where the sub-continental rub lies when the search for equilibrium is one-sided.
Pakistan's quest for nuclear weapons is visceral in urge, India-specific in intent and 'at-any-cost' in motivation. It serves to explicate (and vindicate) the bizarre extent of the AQ Khan network's exertions, and its clandestine nuclear links with China and North Korea. Therefore, unique and intriguing to the nuclear cauldron is the tri-polar nature of the playing field, with China and Pakistan in a collusive arrangement. Pakistan's nuclear weapons program was conceived, designed, and tested by Beijing from the mid-1970s onwards. In conjunction with all this is the rapid pace at which the Khushab reactors (II and III in particular) have come on-line and weapon grade plutonium is being extracted with active and persistent Chinese aid. Collaboration, technological updates, the breakneck build-up of fissile material and production and extraction facilities may even suggest a doctrinal co-relation, which any deterrent relationship overlooks at the peril of its constancy.
No meaningful scrutiny of the sub-continental nuclear situation can avoid looking at the internal workings of Pakistan. What has caused this situation is the fixation with achieving military parity with India, and the precarious cocktail that the establishment has brewed in nurturing fundamentalist and terrorist organisations as instruments of their policies in Afghanistan and Kashmir. This policy has blown back to the extent that it is more than plausible that elements of the nuclear arsenal could well fall into extremist hands, aided by sympathetic rogue elements in the military. The recent happenings at Abbottabad, the Plutonium rush, the assault on PNS Mehran, the conventionalising of the Hatf-9 missile, the descent to tactical nuclear weapons, and the continued opacity of strategic underpinnings of their nuclear programme defies rationality and does not in any way engender confidence in the prospects for stability. Added to all this is US Secretary of State Kerry's recent insinuation in Beijing of Pakistan's nuclear links with North Korea (while oddly down playing China's role) that attached nuclear perfidy to an already vexed situation. Such 'hare' like nimbleness in nuclear matters, as Michael Krepon has termed it, could also suggest an incredulous belief on the part of Pakistani leadership in being able to control the escalatory nuclear ladder. This they must know is a fallacy, given the yawning power asymmetry that exists.
We stand today on the cusp of a 'Strangelovesque' situation caused in part by the reluctance to control the manner in which technology and political events are driving the direction in which arsenals are headed, and in part due to lack of transparency. This is the predicament that is faced by nuclear force planners. There does not appear to be any other answer than to readjust nuclear postures, turn back the clock on tactical nuclear weapons, and retune doctrines with the aim of bringing about balance in posture. Policy must accommodate the reality of the tri-polar situation and the need for 'convincing reassurances' on the matter of rogue players.
(Written as part of a collection of commentaries by various scholars on Nuclearization in South Asia, hosted by the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies. To follow the rest of the debate, visit: http://www.ipcs.org/article/india/india-pakistan-and-the-nuclear-race-the-elephant-and-the-3881.html)
Posted in Nuclear Issues, South Asia | Tagged Deterrence Stability, India's Nuclear Doctrine, Pakistan's nuclear weapons program, Sino-Pak relations, South Asia Nuclearization | Leave a reply
THE GRANDMASTER'S PAWN*: An Analysis of the China-Pakistan Nuclear Arsenals
Posted on January 3, 2013 by strategicdialogues
Keywords: China Nuclear Doctrine and Strategy, Pakistan Nuclear Doctrine and Strategy, Indian Nuclear Force Planning, "How Much is Enough?" Deterrent Stability
Download complete article here: Shankar, The Grandmaster's Pawn
The Chinese Arsenal A keen observer of international relations in the South and East Asian region soon comes to the conclusion that no endeavor to achieve deterrent stability, or to bring objectivity in an analysis of the Sino-Pak nuclear arsenals and their strategic underpinnings, is intelligible without perceiving them first as one; and then as separate. This virtual dichotomy challenges leadership at every step in bringing about equilibrium in strategic relationships. Unique to this tri-polar tangle is the collusive nature of the Sino-Pak liaison.
Ever since the 1950s it was amply clear and comprehensively demonstrated that China would use all stratagem at its disposal to not just embarrass but also to nip any perceived challenge that may emerge from India. The exasperation that they have caused on issues ranging from Tibet to the festering territorial differences in the North and North East; the irksome opposition to any opportunity that the international system may concede to India; their reaction to the recent Nuclear Suppliers Group waiver and their persistent rejoinder to Indo-Russian relations are cases in point. All this is despite the galloping trade links between the two.
Philosophical and Strategic underpinnings of Chinese Policy Search for reasons for this antagonism may be found in the philosophical and strategic underpinnings of Chinese policy. The first consideration is our understanding of China's Grand Strategy. Chinese strategists define Grand Strategy as "the overall strategy of a nation or an alliance of nations in which they use their combined national strengths for political goals, particularly those related to security and development."[1] What stands out in this definition is the importance of the alliance in achieving goals related to both security and development.
The complicity with Pakistan, whether it be for ends of economic growth or energy security (development of the deep water port at Gwadar at a precarious moment in the history of that nation when investment there is plunging southward is noteworthy) or, to realize their national goals by promoting a nuclear adversary to India; is all really an execution of their larger Grand Strategy to exploit an alliance in their favour, notwithstanding norms of the international system or the proliferation that this enterprise would entail. The single minded ruthlessness to implement this policy has been the abiding leitmotif.
China's strategic culture that has evolved over the years is the second lynchpin upon which their policies hinge. Central to it is the continuous friction between their civilizational heritage and the upheavals that moulded the communist state. Therefore, on the one face, we note that there is a stated aversion to conflict, while on the obverse, is an unyielding belief in realpolitik.
Their No First Use (NFU) pledge coupled with a persistent sponsoring of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program with its unabashed first strike connotations is a manifestation of this same dualism that pervades their doctrine and, when viewed in the larger perspective, a part of their 'active defense.' Then again, shades of Mao's conviction that nuclear weapons were paper tigers and that strategic matters would be decided on mass and weight of the human element[2], has influenced the size of their arsenal. All this is symptomatic of their grasp of contemporary realities, the value of ambiguities and deception and their subscription to minimalism. Their 'Assassin's Mace' strategy fits into this scheme of things well, where a superior force is vanquished by an inferior through stratagem that seeks to paralyze.
History will recall that the Sino-Pak alliance owes its parentage to an unlikely set of circumstances. The Cold War was at its height; then, in 1961 comes an ideological fissure between the two main communist actors over Soviet revisionist tendencies, causing an unbridgeable rift. Close on its heels comes the Sino-Indian War of 1962, the reasons for this conflict remain debatable, yet there can be no denying its impact on the over all balance of sub-continental power and the emergence of China as a cognizable player, independent of the Cold Warriors. Pakistan, which till then had been the southern containment link of CENTO, saw an opportunity in the larger fracas and wooed China through transfer of territories in the Karakoram tract (5800 sq. kms. of disputed territory) giving China access to their troubled Xinjiang Province through the Aksai Chin in 1963. This relationship over the years has concretized into firm economic, military and political ties, notwithstanding the vagaries of international public opinion. So much so, that in the nuclear field there is considerable evidence to suggest doctrinal symbiosis. An analogy in some respects may be drawn with the special relationship that existed during the Cold War between the USA and the UK. Their doctrines were intertwined to an extent that they share a common nuclear arsenal (warheads for the Trident D4 and D5 class of submarine launched missiles is a case in point).
In a departure from the Western model for making strategic evaluations of first identifying ends, then conceptualizing methods and finally, generating means to achieve ends; China follow the Comprehensive National Power (CNP) route, where it sees impact of strategic events on its own endowment as primary. Therefore, in articulating its strategic objectives, in order of precedence, it has unambiguously identified three canons. The first is internal and external stability to its own gauge; the second is to sustain the current levels of economic growth at close to the double digit level; and lastly, to achieve regional pre-eminence. If there is a conflict of interest in the execution of the three then the superior canon prevails.[3]
The Doctrine China's nuclear doctrine owes its soul to a book that was ordered by Chairman Mao in 1958 which appeared before the Communist Party of China in 1959 titled Guidelines for the Development of Nuclear Weapons.[4] There were seven crucial tenets to the doctrine stemming from Mao's 'paper tiger' and minimalist appraisal of the nuclear question:
a) No First Use
b) Minimal Forces without Compromising Credibility
c) Centralized Command and Control
d) Assured Retaliation
e) Modernization and Survivability
f) The Value of Demonstration
g) Doctrinal Dynamism
In all but two of these precepts there does not appear to be great divergence from the Indian Nuclear Doctrine. Where there is a tangential move away is on the subject of 'the demonstration' and 'doctrinal dynamism.' The former suggests, in the abstract, that nuclear weapons would be used, if the credibility factor is ever questioned. This usage may not be against vital targets and yet will leave no doubts of their looming intentions. The latter implies a vast area of subjectivity and opens up the nature of their alliances. In this frame of reference, the scripting of the Pak nuclear capability and transfer of nuclear technologies, setting up of the Khushab I, II, III and IV reactors and the moulding of an emerging first-strike capability makes strategic sense. An alliance of this nature gives their doctrine unmatchable vigour and flexibility.
China has taken steps to put in place a very deliberate strategic orientation which is marked by a small but credible and survivable No First Use nuclear arsenal comprising of about 200 operationalized warheads. The structures it has created to adapt technology and infuse it into the arsenal are there to be seen in their nuclear academic institutions and the human resources that they have developed over the years (It is reported that during the devastating Central Chinese earthquake of 2008, over 160 Ph.D. academics and close to 7000 other technicians, all devoted to the physics package, were among the first to be evacuated from their complex at Mianyang).
Modernization of the arsenal is a continuum. China is focusing on increased ranges, rapid mobility and precision in control and targeting, the induction of MIRV'D warheads and operationalization of the JL2 SLBM is imminent. Efforts to reduce vulnerability of arsenal without compromising central control would be key to future developments. There is the matter of how American BMD would impact on the arsenal. Clearly there would be qualitative and quantitative changes to the arsenal, both for which, China already holds the potential as demonstrated by their ASAT capability. Their 'Assassins Mace' strategy will remain an abiding approach.[5]
As mentioned earlier, the issue of Taiwan and the future of the South China Sea imbroglio are significant to the larger arsenal development. If these are resolved with finesse, then China's aspiration-capability gap will reduce. If not, this gap will increase. Their nurturing of a first strike capability in the arsenal of their alliance partner, Pakistan, will progress with rapidity and precision.
These prognostications may be summarized as under:
China's arsenal will remain small but credible and survivable, numbers operationalized are likely to be less than 200 warheads (author's estimate).
The US decision to deploy BMD in the South and East China Sea littorals may have two possible effects: If deployed it will bring qualitative and quantitative changes to China's arsenal. Warheads are likely to be MIRV'd and the arsenal is likely to show a bulge; If not deployed, stability of deterrence would remain.
The third possibility is that US policy envisages deployment BMD as a part of the extended deterrence that targets rogue states; this would, from China's point of view amount to destabilising the existing deterrent relationship with the same impact on China's arsenal as noted above.
If the Taiwan and the South and East China Sea Islands imbroglio is resolved with finesse then the aspirations – capabilities gap will reduce, if not the gap will increase with consequent instability in the region.
Technology intrusions into the arsenal affecting range, mobility, precision, C4ISR and penetration will continue to be invited.
Reduced vulnerability of arsenal.
No arms race (dangers of the Soviet Model).
Internal economic, social development and global image will remain a priority.
Nurturing a first disarming nuclear strike capability in Pakistan providing doctrinal dynamism will remain a policy focus.
The Pakistan Arsenal
Pakistan's quest for strategic parity with India is a part of the larger protracted conflict that has been integral to relations between the two nations since independence in 1947. Till the 1960s, her close alliance with the West as a part of CENTO, as mentioned in an earlier section, placed her in a situation that provided ready military assistance up to a conventional point. It was the Sino-Indian war of 1962 that provided an opportunity to up the ante. This opening began with territorial concessions and in this the-other's- enemy-is-my-friend state of affairs, graduated to a close nuclear relationship. In time Pakistan's nuclear program was practically scripted, tested and delivered by Beijing (in his book, If I am Assassinated, the late Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, whilst on death row, stated poignantly that if he was to be remembered for any act, it would be for the alliance that he had built with China) [6].
Strategic and Doctrinal Foundations
Post the 1971 War which created Bangladesh, the Sino-Pak relationship took a new and decisive turn as far as nuclear cooperation went. In a paper presented at the Ottawa Dialogue, a Track 2 forum that brings together representatives from both India and Pakistan to discuss nuclear strategic and doctrinal issues, a Pakistani representative emphasized that "with the disparity of size and resource (sic) now established, and national salvation and pride deeply dented, there was only one way to go—the nuclear way."[7]
Pakistan does not have a declared doctrine and there has been no clear articulation of its guiding principles. As early as 2001, Lt. General Khalid Kidwai, in a statement that was widely reported underscored Pakistan's thresholds for the use of nuclear weapons. These he identified as military, economic, political and survival.[8] While these verges were some indication of Pakistan's tolerance levels, the statement was quickly revoked and officially there remained no policy declaration on the grounds that any stated doctrine would create space for the conventional conflict, albeit under a nuclear overhang. In another statement, former Army Chief, General Aslam Beg, stated, "An attack by any nation on our nuclear arsenal will automatically trigger a nuclear strike on India".[9] However bizarre this may sound it is apparent that Pakistan retains a certain irrational ambiguity in their policy to use nuclear weapons.[10]
In the 2010 Ottawa Dialogue report, Pakistani planners suggest that there is a possibility of nuclear weapons having an "inalienable" place in military strategy and therefore, to adopt an operational strategy of flexible response is a natural graduation from the conventional to the nuclear. The second suggestion is that nuclear weapons are weapons to be used as devices of last resort. The third is that nuclear weapons are political weapons and "on the matrix of a larger power smaller power equation, such a capability provides to the smaller an unreserved strategic equivalence." The fourth is a combination of the previous three which sees the nuclear weapon as a means to avoid conflict of any nature. Through ambiguities and a threat of first use, the absence of a declaratory policy is justified. In all this, it is the war fighting abilities of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal that remains the central theme of the various possibilities listed in the report. There is a persistent interplay between the conventional and the nuclear without any discriminating walls between their development or their usage.
The Pakistan establishment rejects the No First Use doctrine of India on the grounds of lack of belief in what has been declared.[11] Pakistan's stated India-centricity and its integration of nuclear weapons in the larger military strategy are items of faith—this poses certain aberrations in the equation. If Pakistan does not subscribe or believe in India's No First Use arsenal then it must logically be that First Use is what will drive their doctrine and secondly, a First Use nuclear weapon changes the paradigm from war avoidance to war fighting. This in itself brings about certain imbalances in a deterrent structure. The other issue is nation-centricity of an arsenal. Can a weapon be tailored for one nation? This is a moot question since a nuclear vector's target is defined by the control authority. If one were to deduce from the various written material and spoken word emanating from the Pakistan establishment then their nuclear doctrine may be summarized as follows:
Pakistan has not abjured First Use of nuclear weapons. Their usage forms an integral part of military strategy.
Ambiguity in intentions and specificity in targeting governs force structuring and deployment.
Robust and sensitive command and control with the military playing both controller and custodian and an emphasis on survivability and preparedness. The current political internals and the significant presence of non-state actors make for a fragile nuclear establishment.
The acquisitory route (ex China) provides Pakistan with the ability to rapidly bring about technological transformations in their arsenal.
There is high probability of doctrinal linkages with China as indicated by the nature of cooperation, the transfers of vectors and the periodic technological infusions that occur (again, the induction of the Nasr, Raad and Babur cruise missile are cases in point).
Ambiguity being central to the unstated doctrine brings with it certain elements of irrationality in their apparent nuclear policies. This obviously can result in confusion of intent causing speculative bulges in the arsenal of potential adversaries.
Impact on Indian Nuclear Force Planning: The Commonalities in the China India Doctrine
There are several areas of commonality in the declared doctrine of China when faced with the Indian nuclear doctrine. However, the significance of the doctrinal linkage between the Sino-Pak nuclear establishments cannot be ignored primarily because it provides China with a dual face to their nuclear posture and to their larger global image. At the same time, as China's role in global affairs increases on the march to becoming a dominant player, this alliance may well impede progress. For the present, the doctrinal dynamism that collusion offers represents a very efficient straitjacket to India's macro exertions.
To force planners, there is a need to understand, while sculpting responses, the critical impact of the alliance and how best the emerging global scenario can be leveraged to advantage. An examination of the areas of commonality in the doctrines may well provide some answers. These may be identified as follows:
The declared policy of No First Use
The long-held subscription to credible minimalism
The firm demarcation between controller and custodian of nuclear weapons and the rigid centralization of command authority
The hitherto rejection of conventionalizing the arsenal
The nature of the arsenal in terms of achieving credibility and denying vulnerability while assuring high survivability are all indicators towards emphasis on the submarine vector.
While the areas of commonality are clear to see and their potential for emphasizing mutuality are apparent, there are certain critical variations which cannot be lost sight of and must be factored into any equation that seeks to bring about equilibrium to nuclear forces. The first of these is, under what conditions would China be willing to forego the doctrinal vigour and flexibility that the Sino-Pak alliance gives? Secondly, China has always believed in the concept of comprehensive national power. In this calculus while there are many factors which play a role, nuclear forces in themselves are of a lesser priority than economic growth.[12] Can this factor and its manipulation play a role in bringing about stability in the three cornered nuclear tangle? Weakening of the Sino-Pak alliance is clearly an issue that would provide a plus to deterrence solidity. This last remains a pressure point that could be worked on.
The impact of the United States BMD program on the nuclear settings is suggestive of the larger multilateral nature of the nuclear equations of the day. If the United States persists in going ahead with a global BMD program it would set into motion a chain reaction of China modernizing its forces both in quantity and in quality which in turn would have an impact on the capability of the Indian arsenal placing demands on technology intrusion setting off an acquisitory spike in the Pakistan arsenal. At the same time, the idea of the US BMD program targeting rogue states only is not a convincing enough argument. A BMD system can shift target almost at will, thereby, affecting the stability of the nuclear equilibrium and impacting force planning.
Ambiguity, which is such an essential part of the Pakistan doctrine and its arsenal, is a dangerous state of affairs from the Indian point of view. It encourages the speculative bulge in order to address the conundrum which is posed by the probability of the failure of the deterrent strategy. The game-changer in such circumstances is increased and more invasive transparency on all sides.
There is a larger consideration that cannot be easily overlooked and that is of the explosive cocktail that is the current internal and external situation of Pakistan and its exasperation as the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in 2014 nears. The American War on Terror is being waged on both sides of the Durand Line. The Pakistan military's involvement and its lack of conviction are now a reasonably well established fact.[13] There are growing apprehensions that elements in the military either lack the will to side with the US led forces or, in a worst case situation, may actively abet the transfer of not just technology but nuclear hardware to the Jihadists. The recent strikes on nuclear establishments, as mentioned earlier, and the inexplicable disappearances of key nuclear scientists, not to mention those who had recorded liaisons with the Al Qaeda, [14] remain seriously alarming episodes that do not inspire any confidence in the existing control that the Pakistan government claims to exercise over its arsenal. The hazards of nuclear weapons in extremist hands are apparent. This places serious demands on Indian force planners to develop a capability to pre-empt and to preclude such an occurrence. Given the imminent acquisition of the nuclear-tipped Babur, and the disarming strike capability that it endows, there is a pressing need to develop survivable and rapid-response mobile land vectors and compress the program for operationalizing the third leg of the triad—the submarine launch ballistic missile. In addition conventional measures to put in place surveillance facilities to detect preparation of a disarming strike and to preempt and neutralize it with precision guided munitions must form an essential part of the conventional counter-strike capability.
Examination of the Chinese and Pakistan nuclear arsenals have made apparent the deliberate strategic acquisitory links and, more importantly, the symbiotic relationship between the two nuclear doctrines. On the one hand China's dualistic approach permits her to chisel a Janus-faced policy—the one that she presents to the world at large is that of the No-First-Use, minimalistic, rigid, controlled nuclear power while the other is to retain the First Use alternative through the Pakistan arsenal. This policy has placed nuclear force planners in a quandary; not to respond is to open India to a possible failure of their second strike. The second predicament that planners in the quest for stability are confronted with is that technology intrusions into the arsenal through the acquisitory route invites covertness, but the consequent lethality and time compression that it brings about demands transparency; however, with the Pakistan apparent policy of ambiguity and deception, the methods of bringing about transparency remains trapped between the dangers of stepping closer to the abyss and the demands of policy. Yet, the future for China may force her to deny this past if her role as a global player is ever to attain integrity.
In chess, the Grandmaster understands the versatility of the pawn whether it is to defend, to protect on the offense, to transmute into the most powerful piece on the 64-squared chequered board or significantly, to sacrifice, with an eye on the larger objective of a checkmate. China must see that her global economic objective is cause enough to let go of the pawn.
[*] In chess the eight unassuming pawns in the hands of a skilled player present a formidable force. Their value lies in their sacrificial worth in trade-offs, the incentive—to be the Queen. Theoretically this could occur in 5 moves, a virtue that is not shared by any of the other pieces. In groups, they protect even as they counter attack. In medieval times each pawn had a distinctive character by nomenclature. Significantly, the King pawn was called the "money changer" while the Queen pawn the "doctor."
[1] Cleary, Christine A. "Culture, Srategy and Security" p. 15, in Bolt P. and Willner A. (Eds.) China's Nuclear Future, (Viva Books: New Delhi) 2008, pp. 13-38 and United States Department of Defence (issued by the Office of the Secretary of Defense,) "The Annual Report on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China," 2008, p.8-12.
[2] Shu Guang Zhang "China's Strategic Culture and the Cold War Confrontations" p. 271 in Reviewing the Cold War: Approaches, Interpretations and Theory, Westadd, OA (Ed.) (Frank Cass Publishers: London) 2000, pp. 258-280.
[3] Cleary, Christine A. "Culture, Srategy and Security" p. 16, in Bolt P. and Willner A. (Eds.) China's Nuclear Future, (Viva Books: New Delhi) 2008.
[4] Chongpin Lin, China's Nuclear Weapons Strategy: Tradition within Evolution, (Lexington: Lexington Books) 1988, p. 144.
[5] Ma, Cheng Kun, PLA News Analysis, Institute of PLA Research, FHK College, NDU, Taiwan, 2009, pp. 145-147.
[6] Bhutto, Z.A. If I am Assassinated, (Vikas: New Delhi) 1979.
[7] Chaudhary, Shahzad, "The Matter of Nuclear Doctrine," presented at The Ottawa Dialogue, 19 Jun 2010, Copenhagen. See report on proceedings.
[8] Iqbal, Nadeem "Economic Threat may push Pakistan to go Nuclear" Asia Times Online, 6 Feb 2002, Accessed 2 Jul 2010, <http://www.atimes.com/ind-pak/DB06Df02.html.> In quoting General Kidwai, Nadeem Iqbal cites a report on Pakistan's nuclear policy, released in January 2002, prepared by nuclear physicists Paolo Cotta-Ramusino and Maurizio Martellini of Landau Network, Italy, an arms-control institution regularly consulted by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
[9] General Aslam Beg in an interview to Cathy Gannon of the Associated Press, 14 May 2006. Quoted in "Pak Nukes Meant Only for India," Times of India, 14 May 2006. Accessed 1 Jul 2010. <http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/Pak-nukes-meant-only-for-India-/articleshow/1528897.cms> The article states: "It doesn't matter who attempts to take out Pakistan's nuclear assets the US, Israel or any other country Pakistan will attack India in retaliation. This bizarre, hair-trigger nuclear stance is central to Pakistan's deterrence theory and was conveyed to New Delhi by Islamabad when it suspected India and Israel of collaborating to take out its nuclear assets, a top retired Pakistani general has revealed."
[10] Chaudhary, Shahzad, "The Matter of Nuclear Doctrine," presented at The Ottawa Dialogue. 19 Jun 2010, Copenhagen. See report on proceedings.
[12] Cleary, Christine A. "Culture, Srategy and Security" p. 16, in Bolt P. and Willner A. (Eds.) China's Nuclear Future, (Viva Books: New Delhi) 2008.
[13] Wikileaks.org is replete with reported episodes of a breakdown of confidence in the Pakistan military's will to fight the war on terror.
[14] The International Institute for Strategic Studies, Nuclear Blackmarkets: Pakistan, AQ Khan and the Rise of Proliferation Networks (Arundel House: London) 2007, p.99.
Posted in Geopolitics and Strategic Impulses | Tagged "How much is enough?", China Nuclear Doctrine and Strategy, Deterrence Stability, Indian Nuclear Force Planning, Pakistan Nuclear Doctrine and Strategy | 15 Replies


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Headlines — October 27, 2022
October 27, 2022 / Luis Licon / Headlines
https://kgnu-news.sfo2.digitaloceanspaces.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/10_27_22-Headlines.mp3
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DA Launches Grand Jury Investigation Into Glass Police Shooting
District Attorney Heidi McCollum announced Wednesday she has convened a grand jury investigation into the shooting death of 22-year-old Christian Glass. A Clear Creek County deputy killed Glass in early June after Glas crashed his car and called 911 for help.
Glass, who was experiencing a mental health crisis, told dispatchers he had knives in the car and was afraid to step out of the car.As officers responded to the call, Glass refused to get out. Eventually, police broke his car window and shot him six times. McCollum said the jury was selected Tuesday and is presenting the incident to the jury for further investigation and the possible return of charges. The case is also under review by the Colorado Bureau of Investigation, which normally reviews police shootings.
Boulder Man Found Not Guilty Of Police Obstruction During King Soopers Shooting
A jury on Wednesday found 44-year-old Boulder resident Dean Schiller not guilty of obstructing police while live-streaming the Table Mesa King Soopers mass shooting that occurred in March 2021.
Schiller began recording the incident live on YouTube after hearing gunshots and seeing people injured as he was leaving the store. Schiller told the Daily Camera earlier in the year that he happened to be at the store with his friend Denny Stong, who was one of the victims of the shooting and reportedly told law enforcement he was a journalist.
During the trial, prosecutors argued Schiller obstructed and interfered with law enforcement as they responded to the incident while Schiller and his attorneys argued for first amendment rights. According to investigator records, Schiller live-streamed police response for nearly two hours and ignored about 60 commands by law enforcement to leave, including several physical attempts to move him.
The investigator also noted no other media members were at the immediate area of the crime scene and Schiller refused to move to the staging area for news media. Prior to the mass shooting, Schiller said he frequently filmed police activity around Boulder.
Colorado Oil & Gas Regulators Approve New Weld County Wells
The Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission approved Wednesday a plan by Crestone Peak Resources to drill 19 horizontal oil and gas wells in Weld County near Broomfield and Erie. During Wednesday's hearing, Broomfield officials presented air monitoring data which they say shows spikes in emissions caused by hazardous chemicals linked to oil and gas operations, including the chemical benzene.
According to the Colorado Sun, Broomfield also presented results from a health survey done in coordination with the state health department that shows people living close to wells have higher reported incidences of respiratory problems and other health issues. Broomfield's arguments were the first time a local government could intervene in commission proceedings because of a new rule allowing local governments to protest when in proximity to proposed sites.
According to the Colorado Sun, the Town of Erie reached a separate agreement with the operator. The commissioners said they based their approval on recommendations that came from staff and the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment and that Broomfield's data did not outweigh the information from the operator.
Utility Gas Price Increase
The Colorado Public Utilities Commission approved Xcel Energy's plan to increase natural gas prices. The price increase is set to start by the end of this year. This rate hike will cause residential and small business monthly bills to rise by around three percent.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, high natural gas prices will continue to rise this winter. Households across the country may see their energy bills jump close to 30 percent.
After Xcel Energy increases the prices, they plan to file a request for an electric rate increase as well by the end of the year. This increase will be an add-on from last April's increase price of $182.2 million. AARP spokeswoman Angela Cortez said that the company is doing "It's obvious 'pancaking,' filing one rate increase after another, and Coloradans are sick of it."
Colorado Automobile Dealers Association Data Shows Drop In Vehicle Sales
The Colorado Automobile Dealers Association released its third quarter update this month that says the effects of inflation, limited inventories, and interest rates continue to affect vehicle sales. The state so far this year has had close to 160,000 new vehicle registrations through September, compared to roughly 190,000 at the same time last year.
Precise numbers show a 14.5% drop for the first nine months of 2022. The CADA report does highlight that pent up demand for vehicles continues to grow and also predicts that vehicle prices will probably lower when supply chain issues improve. Although vehicle sales are down overall in the state, the report shows Colorado drivers are snatching up more green vehicles this year compared to last with electric vehicles sales having the largest increase at 41%.
CSU Students Remain In Overflow Housing At Nearby Hotel
Housing officials with Colorado State University in Ft Collins say they still have 103 students temporarily housed at the Best Western Inn near the school's campus. According to the Coloradoan, CSU fell short in providing on-campus housing for the record number of first-year students enrolled this year and scrambled to deal with a surge of incoming students.
At the start of the semester, school officials said they placed over 330 students in overflow housing and assigned 140 to the Best Western Inn. Although CSU expected to end the hotel housing by September, the school is now renting the hotel until the end of the semester. Officials said they got caught off guard by the record enrollment because of the pandemic and the low number of students who dis-enrolled over the summer.
Boulder King SoopersChristian GlassColorado Automobile Dealers AssociationColorado Oil and GasColorado State UniversitycsuKing SoopersUtility GasUtility Gas Price Increase

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


LOS ANGELES -- Aryzta North America has added a frozen cookie dough line at its bakery in Chaska, MN, which produces Otis Spunkmeyer-branded cookies and custom cookies for retail, convenience and foodservice customers.
Scheduled to open in March, the new state-of-the-art line will add a third line to the bakery's current two-line footprint, expanding the its production capacity and throughput by more than 40%. Through the line extension, Aryzta adds 30 new jobs.
Aryzta continues to grow within the cookie category in foodservice, convenience and retail channels. Along with boosting throughput, Chaska's new line will have capabilities to produce multiple formats and configurations that will enable Aryzta to meet its customer's needs.
Otis Spunkmeyer, an Aryzta brand, has been a pioneer in the fresh-baked cookie business and a leader in the sweet baked goods industry for 40 years. Otis Spunkmeyer began in 1977 as a California chain of retail cookie stores, and soon expanded its business to foodservice operators, offering a fresh-baked cookie program complete with ovens and merchandising tools.
Los Angeles-based Aryzta is a global company formed from leading bakery companies around the world, its food portfolio includes breads, artisan breads, cookies, donuts, pastries, cakes, muffins, buns, pizza, flatbreads from brands including La Brea Bakery, Otis Spunkmeyer, Oakrun Farm Bakery and Pennant.


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Rapid coastal subsidence in the central Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta (Bangladesh) since the 17th century deduced from submerged salt-producing kilns
Till J.J. Hanebuth;
Till J.J. Hanebuth *
MARUM–Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Leobener Strasse, 28359 Bremen, Germany
E-mail: thanebuth@uni-bremen.de.
Hermann R. Kudrass;
Hermann R. Kudrass
Jörg Linstädter;
Jörg Linstädter
Institute of Prehistoric Archaeology, University of Cologne, Weyertal 12, 50923 Cologne, Germany
Badrul Islam;
Badrul Islam
Department of Geology and Mining, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi 6205, Bangladesh
Anja M. Zander
Institute of Geography, University of Cologne, Albertus-Magnus-Platz, 50923 Cologne, Germany
Till J.J. Hanebuth, Hermann R. Kudrass, Jörg Linstädter, Badrul Islam, Anja M. Zander; Rapid coastal subsidence in the central Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta (Bangladesh) since the 17th century deduced from submerged salt-producing kilns. Geology 2013;; 41 (9): 987–990. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/G34646.1
The densely populated, low-lying Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta is highly vulnerable to global sea-level rise. In order to estimate the rate of subsidence of the delta, we examined submerged salt-producing kiln sites in the coastal Sundarbans (a huge UNESCO-protected mangrove forest). These kilns were built just above the winterly spring high-tide level of the time, but their bases are currently located ∼155 cm below the corresponding modern level. According to optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating, the kilns were last fired ∼300 yr ago, and salt production was terminated by a catastrophic event that affected the kiln sites at different levels and locations. 14C ages of charcoal at the kilns' bases and associated mangrove stump horizons support the OSL dates. Based on the elevations and ages, the 300 yr average rate of sinking of the outer delta is 5.2 ± 1.2 mm/yr, which includes 0.8 mm/yr of eustatic sea-level rise. With the expectation of further acceleration of sea-level rise, the already-present problematic situation will be aggravated, and only prudent control of sediment accretion will keep southern Bangladesh above sea level.
absolute age
Brahmaputra River
Ganges Delta
Indian Peninsula
land subsidence
littoral erosion
optically stimulated luminescence
radioactive isotopes
relative age
sea-level changes
upper Holocene
Salt-marsh erosion associated with hurricane landfall in southern New England in the fifteenth and seventeenth centuries
Slip rate and recurrence intervals of the east Lenglongling fault constrained by morphotectonics: Tectonic implications for the northeastern Tibetan Plateau
Late Holocene coastal development along the southern shore of Lake Michigan determined by strategic dating of stabilized parabolic dunes and wetlands of the Tolleston Beach
Coastline and Dune Evolution along the Great Lakes
Coastal geology and recent origins for Sand Point, Lake Superior
Deglaciation, sea-level change and the Holocene colonization of Norway
A previously unrecognized path of early Holocene base flow and elevated discharge from Lake Minong to Lake Chippewa across eastern Upper Michigan
Rapid Holocene sea-level and climate change in the Black Sea: An evaluation of the Balabanov sea-level curve
Geology and Geoarchaeology of the Black Sea Region: Beyond the Flood Hypothesis
Pontic-Baltic pathways for invasive aquatic species: Geoarchaeological implications


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L. L. Cool J. On Making His Own Rules.
Veteran rapper LL Cool J has written an autobiography, entitled "I Make My Own Rules" (St. Martin's). In it he talks about his evolving life, from violent beginnings to his entrancement with rhyme and rap in high school, an obsession that made him Def Jam records' first recording artist at age 15. Mostly recognized throughout his recording career as the one with the gold chains and floppy hat, LL is also a two-time Grammy winner, actor, husband, father of three, and role model for youth.


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DHS Ranks Last In Employee Satisfaction, Engagement
Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images
The Department of Homeland Security trails all federal departments in employee moral again this year, continuing a trend of dissatisfaction at the agency expressed through the Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey (FEVS).
The Office of Personnel Management made 2015's government-wide employee engagement index scores and the global satisfaction index scores public Tuesday, revealing that DHS ranked dead last in both employee engagement and job satisfaction among large agencies.
While the federal government as a whole experienced a one percent increase in employee engagement to 64 percent from 63 percent last year, DHS actually lost a percentage point in engagement, falling to 53 percent. Government-wide global satisfaction also saw a percentage point increase over last year to 60 percent, DHS meanwhile lost a percentage point, dropping to 47 percent.
"This survey data provides a powerful way for agency leaders to be able to think about, and evaluate, their engagement programs and office cultures," OPM Acting Director Beth Cobert said of the review. "As leaders, we know that employee engagement drives performance and is closely tied to mission success in the Federal Government, which means better service for our customers, the American people."
DHS Sec. Jeh Johnson expressed dismay at the survey's results, saying it was not indicative of the work the agency has put into improving morale.
"To be sure, I am disappointed that our efforts to improve employee satisfaction at DHS were not reflected Department-wide in this year's results of the Federal Employee Viewpoint survey," he said. "I am disappointed but not discouraged."
Johnson said the department "will not give up" and the pointed to the difficulties in improving the satisfaction of such a large agency that employs 240,000 people across 22 components.
The DHS secretary pointed to some positives in the survey's subcategories, highlighting that most employees say the work they do is "important" and put in the "extra effort." He further touted some of the agency's recent accomplishments including contributing to the security efforts for the Pope and United Nations, naturalizing 36,000 immigrants, aiding unaccompanied illegal immigrant children, and a Coast Guard seizure of more than $1 billion worth of cocaine.
"The men and women of the Department of Homeland Security are our greatest asset, and I and the other senior leaders of DHS are committed to improving employee satisfaction," he said. "We will continue our efforts to make DHS a place where all employees feel valued and where their hard work is recognized and rewarded."
He concluded that with new Under Secretary for Management Russ Deyo focused on leading an effort to improve employee conditions he is "confident that, next year at this time, our efforts, in collaboration with leadership across our components, will be reflected in Department-wide results of the Federal Employee Viewpoint survey."
Politicsdepartment of homeland securityJeh Johnson
Trump DOE Promotes School Prayer on National Religious Freedom Day


Why should Montana invest in pre-K?
Pre-K programs vary from state to state, but often include educational programs for four-year-olds, on a part-time basis.
Support services for families and parents.
How are pre-K programs delivered to participating children?
In a mixed-delivery system, where public schools partner with private providers, pre-K classrooms may be located within existing community preschools, at elementary schools, or both.
Children learn interpersonal skills, such as being able to pay attention and When children are better prepared for school, it means less disruption in the classroom and all children benefit.
Our public education system spends over $85 million in state and federal funds on special education each  By investing in pre-K, the state can reduce special education costs by reaching children earlier and ensuring they are prepared to enter kindergarten ready to learn.
Child care in Montana is expensive: the average cost for a four-year-old to attend child care is $7,922, roughly 11 percent of the average Montana family's yearly income and 37% of the average income for a single parent. The cost of child care for a four-year-old now exceeds the annual cost of tuition at a Montana university.
Business also benefit from investment in pre-K.
Businesses will also benefit from a more skilled workforce in the future. Business executives, such as the president of the Washington Corporation, support investment in pre-K to produce a more skilled workforce in the long-term.
What preschool programs are currently available in Montana?
Many school districts across the state currently provide pre-K to some students beyond required special education services; however, the demand far outweighs the current  For example, school districts in Great Falls, Hardin, Libby, and Hamilton have established quality pre-K programs to better prepare four-year-olds to enter school ready to learn.
How will this impact existing private child care providers?
In states with similar models, private providers use state dollars to improve their programs and develop their Other providers have shifted their program to serve children in the hours that preschool is not offered and/or to serve more children in the zero-to-three age group.
How will this impact Head Start programs?
In FY 2015, about 4,983 Montana children (ages 3-5) participated in Head Start and Tribal Head Start  However, many communities do not have access to Head Start facilities, and existing programs often experience long waiting lists each year.
Eligibility for Head Start is limited to families experiencing poverty, or those earning approximately $24,300 in annual income for a family of  Income limits leave many families ineligible for Head Start yet unable to afford quality child care.
Where does the 7-to-1 benefit-cost ratio come from and what does it mean?
This is a conservative Other studies have shown even higher benefit-cost ratios of 11-to- 1 and 16-to-1.
Do the economic benefits of pre-K exist for both targeted and universal programs?
While studies show that all children benefit from pre-K, the greatest economic returns are from providing quality pre-K to the most disadvantaged  Programs providing pre-K to all children, such as those in Oklahoma, have also produced significant economic returns.
Universal programs do a better job at identifying and reaching targeted children. For example, Iowa expanded its program to all four-year-old children in 2008 and has experienced significant increase in enrollment, from 4 percent in 2007 to 61 percent of all four-year-olds in 2015. The more children who are enrolled in preschool, the greater the total return to the economy.
Providing funds for universal public preschool to disadvantaged communities can help ensure children most in need are reached and also promote participation and diversity.
How do states ensure public funds are invested in quality programs?
 Office of the Governor. "2019 Biennium Budget." Accessed December 10, 2016. http://budget.mt.gov/Portals/29/execbudgets/2019_Budget/2019%20Montana%20Biennial%20Budget%20Overview.pdf.


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Dorji Namgyal foi um Desi Druk do Reino do Butão, reinou de 1831 até 1832. Foi antecedido no trono por Choki Gyaltshen, tendo-lhe seguido Adap Thrinley.

Ver também
 Lista de monarcas do Butão

Reis do Butão

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


The On the Shoulders of Giants sculpture is based on the idea of mirrors as portals for reflection and self awareness. It is the larger of two artworks standing at different entry points of Atwell College, the other is a functional sundial sculpture entitled Live Every Day.
A serial structure derived from elements taken from the police logo, was developed for the exterior artwork of the Harvey Police Station & Courthouse.
Based upon Spreading Snottygobble (Persoonia Elliptica), the abstracted forms nevertheless suggest the richness of nature. Laser cut, negative silhouettes are overlaid with discs and leaf shapes placed in relief to add the extra dimension of ever changing light and shadow.
The natural heritage of the Wanneroo area is reflected in the artist's laser-cut steel panels that provide an entry statement to the Wanneroo Police Station.


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Terrorist bodies in Kashmir not to be handed over to kin
| Updated: Sunday, June 24, 2018, 12:09 [IST]
The huge funerals that the terrorists have been getting in Kashmir are not only a security menace, but also an embarrassment. Since the death of Burhan Wani, the Hizbul Mujahideen commander, the Valley has been witnessing funerals of terrorists in which there are large gatherings.
At the funerals, one has not only witnessed huge crowds, but also gun salutes being given by terrorists. The funerals not only change the narrative, but have also acted as breeding grounds for terrorists. There are many who join terror groups after witnessing such funerals, which has prompted security agencies to say that these are recruiting grounds.
File Photo of Women watching the funeral ceremony of Hizbul Mujahideen top commander Yasin Itoo alias 'Gaznavi' from a window at Nagam Chadoora in district Budgam on Monday. Yasin Itoo was killed in an encounter in Shopian. PTI Photo
Now the security forces have urged the government to stop handing over the bodies of terrorists to their kin in an attempt to stop such huge funerals. The police are of the view that these funerals are emotionally charged and in many cases, they have also turned out to a ground to conduct an anti-India propaganda.
The Home Ministry which would consider this suggestion would leave it up to the Jammu and Kashmir police to take a call. It is the job of the police to hand over the bodies of the terrorists to the families, even if they are killed in an encounter with the Armed Forces.
The police are likely to treat this issue on a case to case basis. The police may either tell the families to make it a private affair. If the parents refuse, then the police may bury the body at the encounter site.
The police say that such funerals end up making the terrorist a martyr. He becomes a source of inspiration for the youth to join terror groups. This is part of a vicious cycle, the police also say.
More TERRORISTS News
Encounter breaks out in J&K's Shopian
No scope for cowardice in Indian Army, a soldier can't turn his back: Supreme Court
How many terrorists were killed this year in J&K?
21 terrorists arrested in Pakistan's Punjab province
J&K: One terrorist killed in Budgam encounter, operation continues
Why it is a bad idea to let these ISIS terrorists from Kerala return to India
Is the end of terror in the Valley near? Terrorists have started killing terrorists
Why do terrorists from Bengal find a safe haven in Bengaluru and Kerala
J&K: Terrorist who was part of Zakir Musa group gunned down in Tral encounter
"Terrorists who enter Kashmir are Pakistan Army soldiers without uniforms"
Al-Qaeda offshoot in Valley continues to suffer heavy losses
Shopian encounter: 4 terrorists killed by security forces
terrorists funeral jammu and kashmir burhan wani
86% Ujjwala beneficiaries return to take 2nd refill


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« How European Empires came to the Rescue of Christians and Jews in the Nineteenth Century
Has the "Palestinian cause" been demoted in the higher counsels of Arab world? »
How Christian communities Die in the Middle East: The Sorry History of Armenia
June 10, 2013 by Paul Merkley
Part A of Essay Three in a Series: The Suffocation of the Christian Communities in the Middle East.
Christian individuals, Christian families, and historic Christian communities in the Middle East
As we contemplate the imminent suffocation of the Christian community in the Middle East, we have to keep in view two distinct but related historical processes.
One is the ubiquitous fact of attrition – the steady whittling down, one by one, of numbers of Christians everywhere, owing to defection, some of it voluntary, most of it not. As the days go by, individuals raised as Christians, persuaded by the benefits of submission (that is the literal meaning of Islam, the religion of the powerful) are defecting from the Church.
The other process involves intact communities of Christians, made up of individuals who draw their social identity from belonging to a conspicuously separate body that has worshipped together in a language distinct from the common language of the region, using a unique liturgy, in buildings heavily decorated (by Western standards) with distinctive works of religious art that they have cherished and protected from Muslim contempt for fourteen centuries.
In centuries past, this latter process has been to some degree retarded by the circumstance that the political masters of the Arab world were well aware of benefits for their regimes that followed from the exceptionally high levels of literacy, education, professional accomplishment, economic success and extensive connections abroad, of these venerable communities; and for these reasons they drew them into conspicuous roles in the public life. But precisely because of these accomplishments, these communities have always been objects of resentment. The political leaders have always had to tread a fine line as they sought to sustain these valued minority communities, while fending off complaint from the Muslim majority of appeasing the enemies of Allah. In moments of extraordinary crisis in the public life of the Arab world, we find shocking examples of sudden surrender by the political masters to the Muslim mobs resulting in campaigns of massacre consciously directed towards extirpation of one or other of these ancient Christian communities.
Two major extirpation campaigns of this kind that took place over the last century need examination here. One of these campaigns resulted in the absolute ejection from the Arab world of one of the most ancient Christian communities – the Armenians. The other resulted in the savage reduction of numbers and of political and social significance of the Assyrians, who still exist in scattered communities in parts of the Arab world, but who are being targeted for annihilation by the Islamist politicians who have come to power during the so-called Arab Spring.
Withdrawal of European protection of Christian minorities during the First World War
In my previous essay ("How European Empires came to the rescue of Christians and Jews in the Nineteenth Century") I described how Britain's government took up the cause of protection of the Jews and Christians of the Ottoman Empire, following the Damascus Blood Libel incident of 1840. There is some truth in the assertion by historians that the British used this self-appointed role task as a benign cover for the "geopolitical" purpose of causing the Sultan, the Sick Man of Europe, to think every night before bed of what Britain could offer him as an ally against his own present and future enemies. It was, in plain words, an "imperialist" gesture. Still, despite this perfectly reasonable and honorable calculation, it developed that the Sultan was listening more and more to the blandishments of the Germans, who wanted to build a major railroad for profit and for their own imperial interests in the region, and who would ultimately draw the Ottoman Empire into the First World War — on the losing side. An advantage enjoyed by the Germans in this early contest was that the servants of the Kaiser, unlike those of King Edward VII and King George V, were content to leave the rulers of the Ottoman Empire free to decide internal religious policies – such as how to handle their Christian minorities.
As British, French, German and eventually American presence increased on the ground, Christian minorities now had the same possibility as had the Jews of appeal to these external champions in defense of the principle of religious freedom that is taken for granted in the West but which in the Middle East is trumped by the immemorial tradition of dhimmitude. But such resort to European opinion was made only in the most urgent situations. Local Christians were painfully aware that the greatest possible damage would follow if, by their complaint, they brought humiliation to Muslims, who would seek greater revenge the moment the Europeans' attention turned to other matters – as it always did. More fundamentally, the indigenous Christians feared appearing to make common cause with "missionaries," "Crusaders," Jews or "Zionists."
European interventions on behalf of Jews inevitably brought to the minds of indigenous Christians their own ancient tradition of contempt for the Jews, following from the teaching of certain early theologians that God had cancelled all His promises to the Jews and replaced them with the one great inclusive Promise – which is in the Gospel. Typically, therefore, the leaders of the Christian communities have never made application for intervention by Europeans and Americans until their situation has become nearly hopeless – as we shall see in the case of the Armenians and the Assyrians.
A new enemy for Christian communities in the Middle East: Turkish nationalism
As it happens, the story of European imperial interest in the Middle East coincides with the moment when the Turks, the dominant race in the Ottoman world, were succumbing to a type of national-chauvinism of the sort that was increasingly gaining ground in Eastern and Central Europe, the Balkans and Germany. Habits of contempt for lesser nationalities within their empire and fancy theories about primordial conflicts deriving from different times of entry into the region became fashionable among patriotic Turks, especially their intellectuals. As this occurred, attention was drawn to two Christian communities on Ottoman soil that had the numbers and the coherence to present obstacles to the unlimited power of the Turks. These were the Armenians and the Assyrians.
A bird's eye history of the Armenians
For perhaps a decade or two following the Ascension of Jesus Christ, all of the people who accepted the Christian message were Jews – most of them living in Jerusalem. Eventually, missions, headed originally by surviving apostles, went out beyond Judea and Samaria and sought conversion among the many neighboring communities who were, like the Jews of Judea, subject to Roman rule. Among the first of the Kingdoms of the region to accept Christian faith as its national faith were the Armenians, subjects of a prosperous Kingdom in the Western part of what is today Turkey.
This amounts to saying that the Armenians became Christians several centuries before the ancestors of most of the readers of these words. Yet it is safe to say that, until the 1890s, virtually no one in our part of the world, except for a few specialists in Ancient History, had ever heard of, let alone met, an Armenian. Then suddenly beginning in 1894 and continuing through the first two decades of the Twentieth century, there appeared in our newspapers a sequence of horrifying items about persecution of the Armenians of Turkey – said to be Christians who had (somehow) got embedded in a Muslim Empire. The persecution was so intense and so dedicated that it seemed that the Turks intended to remove the Armenians from the face of the earth.
The situation in Armenia became better known as, between 1899-and 1917, about 50,000 Armenians entered the US, escaping several waves of what in European terms would be called pogroms — the massacre of entire communities, instigated by local mobs, abetted by military and political authority. When the term genocide came into use following World War Two, it was suggested by responsible historians that what overcame the Armenians was the original genocide.
As it happened, the Sultan and his regime, within whose Empire the first round of massacres of Armenians took place, had been on shaky ground for some decades already, when, in 1908, the regime fell to a coup d'etat conducted by a cabal of officers who called themselves the Young Turks. This, as it turned out, was just the first chapter in a confusing sequence of regime changes that settled after 1922 into the regime which is at least nominally still governing Turkey. The Young Turks calculated, correctly, that the popularity of their new regime would by served by their taking violent action against the several non-Turkish communities. In this latter category the most despised of all were the Kurds, the Armenians and the Assyrians. The Armenians, because of their relative size and their relative prosperity, were the target of choice in the beginning. [David Fromkin, A Peace to End All Peace: The Fall of the Ottoman Empire and the Creation of the Modern Middle East (New York: Avon Books, 1989), 210-215.]
While the Turks looked down upon the Assyrians and the Armenians as fundamentally alien to the Ottoman world these nationalities had lived as distinct communities for many centuries before the Arabs arrived on the scene. As for the Kurds, they had come into Anatolia – what we callTurkey today — as Muslim conquerors in the Seventh Century. Ironically, it was the Turks who were the late-comers; they had entered the region as conquerors about six centuries after the Kurds.
The masses of Turks despised all of these minority groups and had found ways for many centuries to make their lives intolerable. Given that Armenians and Assyrians were dhimmi people, there was no great difficulty about keeping them in line. The life of the Armenians was vividly described by William Ramsey, a visiting British scholar in 1890s:
Turkish rule … means unutterable contempt… The Armenians (and Greeks) were dogs and pigs… to be spat upon …. Conceive the inevitable result of centuries of slavery, of subjection to insult and scorn, centuries in which nothing belonged to the Armenian, neither his property, his house, his life, his person, nor his family, was sacred or safe from … capricious, unprovoked violence – to resist which by violence meant death. [Peter Balakian, The Burning Tigris: The Armenian Genocide and America's Response, New York: HarperCollins, (2003), as quoted in Fromkin, 211-215.]
In undertaking the task of eliminating the Armenians, the new regime was assisted during the years of the Great War (1914-1918) by popular suspicion (not entirely unfounded) that Armenian civilians were abetting the enemy, the Russians – who were, in turn, allies of Great Britain and France. Under cover of preventing massive Armenian betrayal of the national interest, the Turks conducted a popularly-supported pogrom remembered as "the Armenian massacre" of 1915. Those not killed at once during the initial campaign of rape and scattered killing were driven through mountains and deserts without food, drink or shelter to locations outside the borders of the Ottoman Empire.
Armenian sources today put the numbers of deaths as high as 1,500,000. Although the estimate may be high – who can really know? — there can be no disputing the result: the liquidation of up to one-half of the Armenian people of the time and the disappearance of the homeland of the Armenians. [http://www.armenian-genocide.org/genocide.html ]
The remnant who fled across the border into land ruled by Russia, did so just in time to be incorporated into the new Union of Soviet Socialist Republics – a declared atheist regime, but whose leaders had the good sense to permit a considerable degree of "cultural" independence, thus providing, unwittingly, for the emergence when the USSR itself collapsed in 1990-1991, of a new "Armenia," still clinging to its religious traditions.
The legacy of the Armenian genocide
The irreducible significance of this event is best borne out in the remark of Adolf Hitler to his generals as they went off to carry out their assigned tasks in connection with the invasion of Poland in August 1939 and the implementation of the Final Solution to the Jewish Problem: "Who, after all, speaks today of the annihilation of the Armenians?" [http://www.armenian-genocide.org/hitler.html]
Turkey, the successor state to the Ottoman Empire, doggedly refuses to accept that anything resembling "genocide" has ever occurred on Turkish soil. Nonetheless, to date, the legislatures of twenty countries have officially taken note of the Armenian Genocide. Polls in Turkey bear out that the overwhelming majority of Turkish citizens today have either never heard of or deny on principle the story of an Armenian Massacre. To hew to this denial requires rejection of abundant historical documentation (beginning with reports by American officials on the scene and including massive amounts of photographic evidence easily drawn from the internet.) All this clearly fits the pattern of "Holocaust denial" in the Western world – with the difference that Holocaust deniers are a generally-despised minority among us, while Armenian genocide-denial involves virtually the entire population of Turkey, directed by its government.
A considerable section of academics in Canada continues to express skepticism about the "alleged" Armenian Holocaust. In fact, the position one takes on this issue is one of the best clues to one's place along the left-right spectrum in Canada. Anti-Americans, especially those disposed to suspect American governmental conspiracies, find sinister coincidence in the circumstance that it was an American diplomat – a Jewish one at that — Woodrow Wilson's Ambassador to Istanbul, Henry Morgenthau, who first raised the charge of intentional racial annihilation against the Turks in 1915, and it was the American State Department which sold us on the WMDs in Iraq, at a time when American foreign policy was so clearly directed by Jewish Neo-Conservatives. Anti-Zionist intellectuals, many of them Jewish, speak of the Holocaust-guilt industry that promotes the theme of Armenian Holocaust so as to weaken the charge of special pleading about the Holocaust of the European Jews.
Muslims everywhere in the world are convinced that defamation of the memories of patriotic Turks who acted for the sake of national security against the subversive Armenians before and during World War One is just another facet of the campaign that the Crusader states have conducted for centuries for the purpose of defamation of Islam.


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Home News How Omoyele Sowore blackmailed, almost ruined me, my family's lives –...
How Omoyele Sowore blackmailed, almost ruined me, my family's lives – Reno Omokri
19th Jul. 2020 @ 03:49 pm
By Reno Omokri
Sometime in 2012, it entered my heart to give back to Nigeria. I had invited some White Christian missionaries to Nigeria, in August 2012, and we visited an orphanage in Abuja, the Hope For Survival Orphanage. I was so shocked by the cramped conditions under which the children lived, that I went out and cried my heart out.
I then vowed that I would build an orphanage that would be as good as the house my children lived in America.
I started building in December 2012. I never stole a dime or did a fundraiser. I paid for this project myself, save for a $1000 contribution by my friend, Pastor Andy Cochran. I was in government for four years as a Presidential spokesman, and now I am perhaps the most vociferous critic of the General Buhari administration. Yet, nobody, not even the Buhari junta, can ever say I stole money. My hands are clean, and I am very fulfilled that I set a record, that you can serve in government in Nigeria without stealing.
Work was slow, but I was determined. And then on Valentines Day, 2015, a few weeks to the Nigerian 2015 elections, everything came to a most abrupt halt. Why? Because Sahara Reporters wrote a story alleging that I was an armed robber, who robbed a house in Warri, Delta State, and stole money for use in the coming 2015 elections, which was to hold in two weeks.
I was aghast! No one has ever accused me of stealing money in government, let alone with arms. I had not been to Warri in years. The last time I went there was in 2012 when I had a meeting with Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor about evangelism. I felt it had to be a mistake.
So, I wrote to Omoyele Sowore telling him he was mistaken. I gave him the facts. I showed him logs from Aso Rock, where I worked, proving that on the date and time he alleged I was robbing a house, I was in my office. I gave the names of a woman who was once an editor, who had met with me on the day in question. He ignored my mails. No response. The 2015 Nigerian Presidential election was in two weeks, and the story made my boss, President Jonathan look bad (which was the intention of the story).
Why would you write a story like that without even verifying whether it was true or not? Both Sowore and his organisation had my contact details. Sowore has phoned me before. He knew how to reach me. How can you write such a damaging story without first reaching out to the person you are writing about? It goes against the ethics of responsible journalism, which says hear both sides, and when in doubt, leave out.
I quickly engaged a lawyer and sued the man Sahara Reporters mentioned in their story as accusing me of armed robbery. At court, the man swore to an affidavit that he never made such allegations against me to Sahara Reporters and he does not know how they arrived at their claims.
I then sent the affidavits he swore to Saharareporters and Omoyele Sowore and they ignored it. The traditional print media carried the story of the denial by the man cited by Sahara Reporters. Yet, both Sowore and his organisation refused to either take the story down or apologise.
I then sued Sahara Reporters in Nigeria, but they dodged service of court papers. So, I travelled to the United States and engaged two lawyers, one in New York and one in California.
I was almost financially ruined. I had difficulty paying my mortgage because of the astronomical cost of hiring a lawyer in America (they bill by the hour). I had to stop work on the orphanage project and focused entirely on fighting to clear my name. My children were too ashamed to go to school because I live in a small Christian community in California. The people in our church had read the story, and I was the subject of malicious gossip. Eventually, I had to leave the church. I was scandalised in the community.
The lawyer in New York wrote Sowore and appealed to him to remove the story and explained to him how financially draining this case could be for both him and I. Sowore would not budge and it looked like I may have had to remortgage my house to get the funds to pay for a long legal battle.
Eventually, the lawyer in New York was able to discover that The Ford Foundation was sponsoring Saharareporters. So, he wrote to them and presented the facts to them. Then, and only then, did Sowore take the story down. He did not do this because he wanted to. He did it, only because he did not want his money threatened.
What mattered to Omoyele Sowore was not my life that he was ruining with his blackmail or my children he was scarring psychologically by falsely labelling their father as an armed robber. His singular motive was to render then President Jonathan unelectable and ensure the election of General Muhammadu Buhari, via any means necessary, including lying against innocent people. The only thing that could stop him was a threat to his income.
I thank God that on February 22, 2016, the orphanage, The Helen and Bemigho Sanctuary for Orphans, was declared open in Benin city, Edo state, by Professor Pat Utomi, Senator Ben Murray-Bruce and Arch Bishop John Praise Daniel, to the glory of God. My entire family was there. Foreign friends came.
The orphanage is now giving hope to the previously hopeless. However, the orphanage could have been opened earlier, if I did not have to waste multiple millions of Naira trying to clear my name from the reckless lies told against me by Omoyele Sowore, all because, to him, all is fair in elections.
If you saw my photograph from that period, I looked like a person in the last stages of HIV/AIDS wastage. I could not eat. I could not sleep. I was traumatised. My grandparents were so affected by the blackmail against me by Sowore, that I feared it might lead to their untimely death.
My family and I would gather and cry out to God and beg Him to vindicate me. It was the most trying period of my life.
The money I wasted on this venture could have fed and educated orphans. It could have been used to do something more positive and useful to humanity than feathering the nests of already wealthy lawyers both here and in the United States.
However, mine is not an isolated case. It is a pattern or blackmail, and media Terrorism engaged in by Omoyele Sowore, probably the most dishonest on Earth.
I know several persons he has done this to, including and not limited to Pastors, people in business, and ordinary citizens, who he has targeted for destruction to suit his political motives.
I know of a pastor whom Sowore targeted because the man had prophesied the death of his political Godfather, the Kaduna state governor, if he should sign his anti preaching Bill, The Kaduna State Religious Preaching (Regulation) Bill, into law. The pastor is in court against Sowore's medium and has promised to expose details when the case is concluded.
Today, Buhari, who Omoyele Sowore admitted on Camera to bringing to power, is now doing to him what he did to others, and both Sowore and his website want to paint the picture of victims. No, they are enablers. They brought Buhari to power, and as we all know, the first person a dictator goes after, are those who brought him to power.
Sowore is a woman scorned. He expected to be given a role in Buhari's government, like Festus Keyamo. However, he forgot that when you sell your brother, even your buyer will not trust you.
That is why it took less than 24 hours for Nnamdi Kanu to get bail. Because he is genuinely fighting for his people. However, it took months for Sowore to get bail. And he still did not make it. The judge herself later said she was "embarrassed" that despite reducing the bail conditions, no one came to bail Sowore. Who will want to bail a blackmailer? Who?
A brutal blackmailer has met his match in a brutal dictator. It is a match made in hell, and both of them should be left to reap what they have sown.
"Be not deceived; God is not mocked: for whatsoever a man sows, that shall he also reap."-Galatians 6:7.
Gospeller. Deep Thinker. #1 Bestselling author of Facts Versus Fiction: The True Story of the Jonathan Years. Avid traveller. Hollywood Magazine Film Festival Humanitarian of the Year, 2019.
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We only have 5 weeks and counting until the leaders of the kitchen, cooking, smart home and food industries convene in Seattle to map the future of the connected kitchen, and if this week's news is any indication, we'll have lots to talk about!
This week at IFA we've seen Drop announce their deal with Bosch, the first move for the company into becoming a Kitchen OS platform provider, while LG and Samsung showed off new kitchen products. We also had news that SideChef announced the hiring of Dacor scion Steve Joseph, while sous vide specialist Sansaire launched a Kickstarter for their second generation machine, the Delta.
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Also, you'll want to check out our podcasts where we talk about the latest smart kitchen news and interview folks like Chris Young and Ben Harris.
The 'Kitchen OS' space is heating up. Today Drop announced a partnership with Bosch to integrate what it is calling its "kitchen operating system" with the Bosch Series 8 oven. The Series 8 oven features Bosch's Home Connect, the European appliance giant's home connectivity platform.
The news is a first move in the company's transition from being a consumer-facing product company to one that focuses on creating software for third party appliance partners.
This week Sansaire launched a Kickstarter for their second generation sous vide circulator, their first WiFi powered sous vide device. I wrote about it for Forbes here, but also asked Valerie Trask, the COO, a few questions about the device.
LG showed off its door-in-door feature first previewed at CES and lots more at IFA this week. Meanwhile, Samsung debuted the Euro-edition of its Samsung Family hub fridge.
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