The Comorian archipelago is located at the northern end of the Mozambique channel, 10 to 12 degrees south of the equator and halfway between northern Madagascar and eastern Africa. It consists of four islands plus several islets. Three of the islands, Grande Comore (Ngazidja), Anjouan (Nzwani), and Moheli (Mwali), are the constituents of an independent country; the Union of the Comoros. The fourth island, Mayotte (Maore in Comorian), is a department of France. In the map above, the names of the islands in the Union of the Comoros are in Comorian. Below them in the parentheses are the French names for the islands. In the following paragraphs, the French names will be used for all the islands. This follows the common practice in English publications.
Sometimes, the Islands are mistakenly referred to as the "Comoros Islands" with each word ending in 's'. This is incorrect just as referring to the Philippine Islands as the "Philippines Islands" would be incorrect. The correct way to refer to them is the "Comoro Islands" or, simply, the Comoros.
A less common mistake is the Comoros being labelled "the islands of the moon." This is an error due to the misunderstanding of a label on a 12th century Indian Ocean map. The label is written in Arabic and correctly identifies the islands as "al Qmr" (the Comoros). However, the Arabic meaning of 'al Qmr' is "the moon" and someone unacquainted with the Islands mistakenly used the Arabic meaning of the words as their name which led to them being referred to as "the islands of the moon" by others not familiar with the Comoros. This mistake has since appeared in a number of publications.
The Comoro Islands are of volcanic origin and arose from the Indian Ocean seabed at different times resulting in each island having distinct geological characteristics today. The oldest of the islands, Mayotte, has highly eroded mountains with slow, meandering streams. Since May of 2018, numerous earthquake tremors with a magnitude as high as 5.8 have been reported on the island. In what may be related events, Mayotte is moving slowly eastward and has sunk more than 10cm in the past year. In contrast to Mayotte, Grande Comore is the youngest of the islands and has the only active volcano in the archipelago. Karthala, is a massive volcano on Grande Comore that rises 7,746 feet above sea level and dominates the southern half of the island. It has erupted more than 20 times in the past two centuries. The caldera at its summit is one of the largest in the world with an area of 12 km2 and numerous lava flows throughout Grande Comore are clearly visible on its slopes. The result of all the volcanic activity has been a permeable lava crust that coats the island and there being no permanent rivers on its surface.
The other two islands, Anjouan and Moheli, are of intermediate age, have high mountains covered by tropical forests, and rain fed rivers running down to the sea. Recently, geologists have discovered that one half of a mountain on Anjouan contains the mineral quartzite. This is a puzzle since the mineral does not normally appear on volcanic islands and the geologists are unable to explain how it got there.
Genetic, archaeological, archaeobotanical, and historical evidence revealed that the Comoros have been populated for over a thousand years. The population today is a mixture of peoples of African, Arabian, Asian, Austronesian, European, and Polynesian descent resulting from a long history of Indian Ocean seafaring and trade. Strategically located at the head of the Mozambique Channel, the Comoros were for many centuries an integral part of the maritime trade of the area. Merchants sailed between the Comoros and ports in Africa, Arabia, and Asia to trade a wide variety of goods including rare gems, exotic animals, woods, cowries, cloths, slaves, ambergris, and spices. When someone familiar with the Islands reads the adventures of Sinbad the Sailor, it is easy to imagine Sinbad visiting the Comoros.
The Arabian navigator, Ibn Madjid, visited Domoni, a community on the eastern shore of the island of Anjouan. It had been founded before the end of the 12th century and at the time of Madjid's visit in the 15th century had become a major stopover for African, Indian, and Persian sailing vessels. By the 17th century, the city had also been visited by European and American sailors. Domoni's extensive involvement in the maritime trade diminished substantially after the middle of the 19th century due to the introduction of the steamship, the opening of the Suez Canal, and the control of the Indian Ocean littoral by European nations. When Europeans regulated colonization of Africa in the late 1800s, the Comoros came under French administrative control, then became a French colony and, lastly, a French Overseas Territory before three of the islands achieved independence in 1975.
The Islands possess unusual geological features, exotic flora and fauna, plus a form of social organization that is rare among the world's societies. This rare social system is known in Cultural Anthropology as "matrilocal polygyny". It is a system that features men marrying multiple wives and living in each of their households on a system of rotation. The first marriage for a man is marked by a large traditional wedding ceremony in which a considerable amount of wealth is transferred between the families of the wedding couple and benefits the both the bride and the groom. This gave women a significant role in the Indian Ocean trading system and enabled them to possess a high degree of freedom, power, and wealth not seen in most other countries. In the 2013 Thomas Reuters Foundation's poll, the status of women in the Union of the Comoros was ranked the highest of all 22 members states of the Arab League (including Syria which was suspended in 2011). Three percent (3%) of the Comorian parliament's seats were held by women (World Bank 2011), twenty percent (20%) of politicians in ministerial positions were female (World Bank 2011), and thirty-five percent (35%) of adult women were in the labor force (United Nations 2011). Furthermore, women in the Comoros are usually awarded land and homes in cases of divorce or separation (United States Department of State 2012) and fifty percent (50%) of all inmates are males held for crimes of sexual aggression (United States Department of State 2012). For more details of the system of marriage and the role it played in women's status, see the book, "Marriage in Domoni" by Martin Ottenheimer.
The capital city of the independent country of the Comoros is Moroni. It is located on the largest island in the archipelago, Grande Comore, called "Big Comoro" in the past by American sailors. Recently, the words 'Moroni' and 'Comoro' became involved in a religious controversy in The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. According to Joseph Smith, the founder of The Church, "Moroni" was an angel who led him to "Cumorah", a hill in New York state, where engraved golden plates were buried. Joseph Smith claimed to have translated the plates and then published their story in 1830 in the Book of Mormon; the sacred text of The Church. Critics have challenged Smith's story claiming that the source of the words, 'Moroni' and 'Cumorah', was from accounts about the Comoro Islands Smith had heard before 1830. In responding to the critics' claims, members of The Church defend its sacred nature by arguing that it was not possible for Smith to have heard these words before 1830. They maintain that the Comoros were unknown in the U.S. and that Moroni didn't even exist before the Book of Mormon was published.
Was it possible for Joseph Smith to have heard about Moroni and the Comoro Islands before 1830? To answer this question, I point to the following facts: (1) The Friday mosque in Moroni has a plaque inscribed with the date of its construction as 11 February 1427. (2) Walls that once surrounded the city were seen and mentioned in travelers. accounts in the late 18th century. (3) The infamous American pirate, Captain Kidd, visited the Comoros in 1697 and was followed by numbers of American sailors over the next several decades. Whaling seamen, in particular, returned from the Indian Ocean to New England with tales about the Islands. These tales were likely carried westward along the route of the Erie Canal and it was possible for Joseph Smith to have heard of the Comoros and the city of Moroni before the 1830 publication of the Book of Mormon. Whether or not, in fact, he did hear their names and then used them in the Book of Mormon is a different question. The answer to that one requires details about the life of Joseph Smith.
The mountainous islands have diverse microecologies with spectacular scenery, exotic plants and rare animals. Several species are unique to the Comoros. One animal, Livingstone's Flying Fox, is a fruit bat that soars on wings spanning more than four feet (1.2 meters)! It roosts in high valleys in the mountainous forests of Anjouan and Moheli. With increased human demands for cleared land and timber, the bat's habitat is diminishing and the species is becoming endangered.
The Anjouan-scops owl is one of over a dozen bird species unique to the islands. All are under a threat of extinction due to expanding human populations trying to meet their needs. The islands also have a number of species of insects found nowhere else in the world plus a variety of rare orchids and other plant life on the mountains that have seldom been seen. Some of these have medicinal properties unknown to western science.
A large variety of sea life can be found in the waters around the Comoros. One can find everything from giant whales, large sharks, big manta rays, sailfish, sunfish, to lobsters, crabs, blennies (Alticus anjouanae) and tiny shrimp. Multiple forms of marine life exist in the deep water close to the islands, among the coral reefs, on the miles of both rocky shores and sandy beaches. Fresh water streams and shoreline springs help to add to the diversity of plant and animal life in the Islands. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in pollution from human activity that now threatens much of the coastal life around the islands. The coral reefs and their associated sea life are especially in danger.
There is a remarkable story about a species of fish found in the waters of the Comoro Islands. Scientists had thought that the Coelacanth had been extinct for over 60 million years! But, in 1938, it came to the attention of an ichthyologist, J. B. Smith, that they were being caught in the Indian Ocean near the Comoros. He subsequently offered a reward to anyone who would provide a specimen for him and in 1952 a fisherman in Anjouan presented him with one. Since then, numerous specimens have been caught, preserved, and sent to museums around the world. Coelacanths have also been photographed live in Comorian waters. There are videos available on YouTube. To learn more about this story visit the National Geographic website.
At the Berlin conference of 1884-5, western European powers divided up Africa into spheres of influence and the Comoros became a French protectorate. France declared them a colony in 1912 and they became an Overseas Territory of France in 1946. The Comoros remained under direct French political control until 1975 when the local government declared the Islands' independence. In 1978, after three years of political turmoil, three of the islands; Grande Comore, Moheli, and Anjouan, formed the Federal Islamic Republic of the Comoro Islands. France retained control of Mayotte but this was disputed by the new Comorian government and the United Nations General Assembly also recognized the island of Mayotte as a part of the independent nation of the Comoros. However, in spite of these actions, the French government retained control of Mayotte and, in March of 2011, made the island a Department of France. It remains a part of France to this day.
In 1997, separatists on the islands of Anjouan and Moheli demanded more independence from the Federal Islamic Republic. This led to the breakup of the Republic and reformation of the central government under a new constitution in 2001. The country was renamed the Union of the Comoro Islands and the constitution gave each of the three islands considerable autonomy. Besides there being an elected president of the Union, each island would have its own president.
In 2007, the president of Anjouan attempted to make the island independent and leave the Union of the Comoro Islands. In March of 2008, he was removed by a combined force of Comorian and African military units. This led to a newly elected president of Anjouan and a return to a normalized relationship with the central government.
Under the original Comorian constitution, presidential elections were to be held every four years with the office rotating between the three islands. In 2002, Colonel Assoumani from Grande Comore was elected President. He was followed in 2006 by Ahmed Abdallah Mohamed Sambi from Anjouan and then, in 2011, by Ikililou Dhoinine from Moheli. Azali Assoumani was elected President again in the Spring of 2016 and subsequently promoted a referendum passed in 2018 that changed the system of presidential rotation allowing a President to run for two consecutive five-year terms. He then stepped down and successfully ran again for the presidency in March of 2019 and he can be expected to run again and extend his current term in office to 10 consecutive years. These recent events occurred in an environment of serious political disturbances in which some opponents to the changes lost their lives, were jailed, or threatened with incarceration.
The Permanent Mission of the Union of the Comoros to the United Nations.
Seniors Discover the Comoros by Jim Becker.
Library of Congress Country Studies.
United States Department of State Background Notes.
United States Central Intelligence Agency World Factbook.
International Monetary Fund Publications on the Comoros.
Interested in examples of Comorian money? Go to Coins of the Comoros.


Though we have never opened our commentary with a disclaimer, let there be a first time for everything. By the time you read this, many of the proposed tariffs on various countries will most likely have changed terms. Rather than double-decimal precision on the amount of the proposals, it is far better conceptually to try to share the potential meaning and impact of this escalating battle.
President Donald Trump and many of his economic advisors have argued that trade deficits (where the United States imports collectively more goods and services than it exports in return) are the scoreboard for how foreign countries are taking advantage of the U.S. He has described deficits with countries such as China as money "lost" to the trading partners.
Most economists dispute Trump's interpretation of a trade deficit or that such imbalances have hurt the U.S. economy or job growth, as Trump contends.
Simply speaking, the U.S. runs a trade deficit because it consumes more than it produces while its trading partners, collectively, do the opposite. Over a shorter-time horizon, trade deficits may rise and fall depending on the relative disparity in economic growth rates. An upswing in spending power for the U.S. consumer, for example, may increase imports without the offsetting export growth should foreign economies slow. This would increase the deficit.
Some impacts are more long-lasting. The recent tax cut that took effect on January 1, along with the recent increase in federal spending of $300B that was passed in February, spurred business investment and increased household spending. From this, we can anticipate that U.S. imports should climb and the recent uptick in economic growth running counter to slowing global growth shows this. With demand increasing at a time when the U.S. unemployment rate is hovering around 4%, employers do not have enough workers to meet the requirements and imports safeguard against an overheated economy and potentially rising inflation.
Permanently reducing the U.S. trade deficit would necessitate some combination of the United States saving more (hence spending less which negatively impacts economic growth) or other countries spending more. As these are heavily driven by other structural factors such as demographics, social safety nets and the availability of credit, it would be quite a challenge.
None of this is to argue against the administration's need to target China and their transgressions against U.S. intellectual property rights and other violations of rules set forth by the World Trade Organization (WTO). Intellectual property refers to inventions, artistic works, brands, names and images used in business. They are protected by law via patents, copyrights and trademarks. There is strong evidence that China has counterfeited major brands, stolen trade secrets and forced companies (in return for the right to do business in the vast Chinese markets) to share technology via requirements for joint ventures with Chinese firms.
China still falls woefully short of fulfilling the requirements of the WTO to protect intellectual property 17 years after joining the organization. It is estimated that about 70% of all software used in China (valued at nearly $8.7B according to the Cato Institute) is stolen with the annual cost to the U.S. of all stolen and pirated property to be as high as $600B. Still, in targeting not just China but our North American neighbors and European allies threatens to harm American workers, businesses and consumers and most certainly pose a threat to both the domestic and global economies.
While tariffs are technically paid by whomever imports the goods in question, importers will try to pass along their costs to consumers. A seemingly innocuous example occurred in early January in one of the earliest tariffs to go into effect, the imposition of 20% tariffs on washing machines. These are major appliances that consumers do not buy very often. As such they would be unlikely to notice the month-to-month price swings as they would on eggs for example.
What followed was an increase over the last three months of about 17% in the price index for laundry equipment as estimated by the Labor Department's consumer price index, by far the largest three-month price increase in over 12 years. Now apply this same logic to the large tariffs now imposed on lumber, aluminum and steel. Estimates from both the housing and auto industries estimate cost increases of $9,000 on the price of a new home and over $5,000 on the cost of a new car. Unlike washing machines, these are critical industries to our overall economic growth.
The Joint Committee on Taxation has estimated that American taxpayers will save about $75B from tax cuts in 2018 and an additional $189B in 2019. The euphoria of this increase in disposable income may be short-lived for the U.S. consumer, however, as the Administration's tariffs on imports threaten to negate much of this relief with rising energy costs adding to this concern.
Tariffs already in place include 25% on steel, 30% on solar panels, 10% on aluminum, 20% on lumber and 20% on washing machines. As of early July over 800 Chinese imports now face a tariff of 25% with a threat of an additional 10% on as much as $400B more products if China were to retaliate. It is estimated that the current and pending tariffs could cost the American consumer as much as $125B per year in increased prices.
The U.S. economy continues to chug along with 2Q growth anticipated to be the highest quarterly mark since the 5.2% rate of growth achieved in 3Q 2014. 1Q GDP growth was much softer than the previous three quarters, which averaged 3.1%. With a final reading of 2.0% (chart below from Wells Fargo), the first quarter has come in weaker in the last several years suggesting that seasonal factors are partly to blame. The primary culprit in the quarter was a weak level of consumer spending following strong reports at the end of 2017 that we had noted were unsustainable.
June of this year represented the start of the 10th year of the economic expansion, now the second longest outside of the 1990s tech boom. Much has been made of the length of the economic expansion as the historic average length of the growth cycle is closer to 60 months.
While it is often said that no expansion dies of old age, they inevitably do die, and when the usual suspects are rounded up, it is the Federal Reserve that is usually picked out of the lineup. Recent fiscal stimulus may have extended this economic cycle, but it has not been repealed. Indeed, of the last 13 hiking cycles engineered by the Federal Reserve, fully 10 of them landed the economy in recession (see charts below from Gluskin Sheff).
However, many point to the magnitude rather than the duration of the recovery which may tell a different story. While the current expansion has lasted over 9 years, the cumulative growth of GDP has only been 21%. This shallower, low-growth trajectory leads many economists to believe that the cycle has more room to run and this message appeared to gain more fans with the release of the June employment report. With continued strong job creation alongside contained wage pressure, the economy continues to run not too hot and not too cold.
Recently, the administration may also look very proudly at the contributions to growth from the manufacturing and trade sectors. Despite the headline focus on the burgeoning trade war, the United States just released data showing the lowest trade deficit since October of 2016. Exports were very strong and benefitted with the usual lag from the 18-month decline in the trade-weighted dollar. This decline appears to have ended for now in mid-April as the year-over-year price change in the U.S. currency has moved from a decline of almost 10% in January to a modest increase as of early July.
We are often asked following a quarter or two of above trend economic growth as to whether or not we are entering escape velocity whereby the level of growth takes a discernable shift upwards. We again will answer the query in the following manner.
Sustainable trend growth in GDP is a product of labor force growth (specifically aggregate hours worked) plus productivity growth. Productivity has recently shown some signs of waking up from a long-term malaise that has reduced the five-year trend to 0.5% but the most recent 1-year level around 1% remains well below historical averages. Labor force growth is pretty much baked in as demographics lead the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to project the next five years to continue the recent trend in soft increases in the labor force of around 0.5% annually.
It is often ignored but worth noting that the already low economic growth exhibited in the U.S. during the recovery was largely due to the contribution of workers rejoining the labor force since 2009. According to work done by John Hussman, the increases in employment added about 0.8% (the green line in the following chart) to our average annual economic growth. The blue line in the graph represents the actual eight-year average for growth while the red line excludes the impact of employment growth. With the unemployment level already down to a multi-decade low around 4%, this tailwind is being removed from future GDP increases.
For now, the combination of strong employment gains and the immediate benefits of the tax cuts are leading a solid recovery in consumer spending in the just-completed 2Q period that will erase a slow 1Q pace. While 2Q GDP growth will show a large rebound from the tepid pace of 2% in 1Q towards 3.5%, we are cautious that this may represent the high-water mark for the year. Though the economy will continue to benefit from tax cuts and increased fiscal spending, the risks are heightened from the lagged effects of the cumulative impact on liquidity of the tightening actions of the Federal Reserve and the implications of the growing tariff and trade conflicts with the benefits of the lower dollar increasingly appearing to be in the rear-view mirror. We look for full-year GDP to end up at the high end of our original estimate of 2.5%-2.75% growth.
The headline PCE (personal consumption expenditures) deflator is the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve that has long targeted a 2% core (ex-food & energy) reading. For the Fed, core inflation will remain the primary focus for the near-term path of policy. After slowing to 1.3% as recently as August, this level was achieved in the reading for May with energy prices adding to the headline gain of 2.3%y/y (see chart below from Wells Fargo) and the core level rising to 2%, the highest level since early 2011. The unwinding of what increasingly looks to have been one-offs—like the plunge in wireless services and abrupt slowdown in housing costs—has helped the core rate of inflation vault back to where it was at the start of 2017.
Trends in the PCE deflator support the Fed's policy goals this year, and neither the rise in CPI or PCE inflation suggest a more aggressive approach by the Fed to be warranted. If inflation continues to firm in line with expectations, we would expect another increase in the funds rate for each of the next two meetings.
However, there is a larger concern now emerging in the form of higher oil prices and the escalating tariff wars. The recent few years may be characterized as having exhibited excess slack in the production supply chain. When this occurs, delivery times are shortened and pricing power from suppliers is weak. The opposite is now occurring as utilization rates are high and rising and delivery times are now more stretched. According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), factories as of the May report are now waiting 67 days for materials, which matches the longest period since 1987. Additionally, the ISM reported that 79.5% of the firms surveyed said they were paying higher prices, which is the highest level since 2011. With the average cost of goods that are leaving factories now rising at the fastest rate since 2011, the current approach of the Federal Reserve may be tested.
2018 will likely mark a dramatic shift in global monetary policy that may trump the changes on the fiscal front as the prior ten years of financial tailwinds give way to increasing headwinds.
Janet Yellen's last meeting as Fed Chairperson in December marked the fifth increase in the federal funds rate (now 1.25%-1.50%) since the end of 2015. That there was little market response indicates a collective view that the new head of the FOMC in the new year will maintain the measured pace of rate increases of the past few years. The consensus view of economists is for an additional two to three rate hikes in the new year.
Central bank officials signaled at their June meeting that they might pick up the pace of interest-rate increases this year and into 2019 to keep a rapidly expanding economy on balance. Fed voting members have upgraded considerably their economic outlook over the past year—first because of a synchronized upturn in global growth beginning last summer, and later after Congress approved stimulus in the form of tax cuts and increased federal spending. The majority of the FOMC now expect at least four rate increases this year and another three next year leaving short rates near 3.5% by 2020.
Policy makers have long focused on the inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and the associated increase normally realized in higher wages and inflation referred to as the Phillips curve. This simple relationship has been broken during this period by dramatic changes in demographics that have reduced the labor force participation rate along with the globalization of the labor market.
Persistently low inflation, and thereby inflation expectations, have lowered the incentive of workers to seek higher wages, while also limiting the need for firms to offset higher wages by passing them on via higher consumer prices. The Fed appears to believe that this cycle is breaking.
The above pace of tightening will now combine with an increase starting in the current 3Q period of greater balance sheet normalization as the Fed increases the pace (now at $40B per month) of allowing maturing Treasuries to be run down over time. For contrast, at its peak, Quantitative Easing (QE) was running at a pace of over $85B of asset purchases per month. A lot of excess liquidity is being drained from the system and is working in conflict with the fiscal stimulus of tax cuts and increased spending.
While sensitive to the short-term concerns of escalating inflation pressures, we are still skeptical of any longer-term concerns in this area due to the continued inflation headwinds of an aging demography, high levels of debt and accelerating impacts from automation. Noting recent increases in the delinquency rates for auto and credit card loans, we see rising evidence of increasing financial strains on mid-to-lower-credit households that may portend slower economic growth in 2019. The Federal Reserve is balancing these conflicting signposts and we do not have confidence in such linear projections of interest rate increases in a dynamic price environment. Should the economy slow into the new year, we expect the Fed to ease off from these estimates.
Economists have debated how tight the pool of available labor is in the U.S. as the implications for wage gains are critical in determining Fed policy. With the aging baby boomer cohort having the anticipated effect of decreasing the overall labor force participation rate (see blue line in chart on following page) even after years of strong employment gains, there remains the very real question as to how much slack is truly available in the labor force. Critical to any analysis in this area is the data on the prime-age (25-54-year-old) labor force participation rate that excludes the impact of demographics found in the overall labor force data.
There are many potential causes for a lower prime-age labor force participation rate (increased levels of workers claiming disability, increases in opioid addiction, and higher incarceration rates among them), but these levels have been improving over the last three years (see yellow line in chart above). Though the rate is only about halfway back to its pre-recession peak and this approximate 1% decline may represent as much as a million additional workers, we do not anticipate reaching those prior peaks.
Moreover, the total pool of available labor—workers officially counted as unemployed plus those not in the labor force but want a job—continues to hover at the lowest rate since 2001. The dwindling availability of workers and especially skilled job seekers (the number one problem most commonly cited by small businesses) should lead to a resumption of downward pressure on the unemployment rate and upward pressure on wages, as some businesses try to attract workers via higher pay. With fewer workers on the sidelines and slowing population growth, we continue to expect job growth to moderate from the nearly 200K monthly average over the past year towards 150K.
Tariffs may represent another reason to expect some softening in the rate of labor force growth. The manufacturing sector has added over 55K jobs in the last two months and continues to be an area of strength in the labor market. However, there are risks going forward as this key part of the U.S. economy has not yet felt any impact from tariffs. As the chart below from Macquarie depicts, labor force growth outside of the manufacturing and construction areas (the red line below) has been declining over the prior 18 months. Escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China haven't yet deterred employers from hiring, but that may change in the latter half of the year.
Many economists continue to look to still tepid wage growth in supporting the above argument of greater slack in labor markets. In the most recent jobs report from the Bureau of Labor & Statistics (BLS), wage growth as defined by average hourly earnings rose only 2.7% y/y. With inflation also rising, real wage gains are flat. Though this may be viewed as keeping the Federal Reserve on the sidelines with little worry about the economy overheating, we continue to point out demographics, and not a larger pool of available labor, as the primary cause of stagnant aggregate wage growth.
The number of people 65 and over who are now outside of the labor force has grown over 1.4MM in the past year alone. The chart below depicts the increases in this statistic of about 800K annually over the prior seven years. We have noted this demographic change as being materially critical to understanding the wage dynamic as this is putting a ceiling on wage gains. People 65 and older who are working make an average of $911 per week according to data and the chart below compiled from the Household Survey and Gluskin Sheff. This contrasts with $576 per week for those who are between the ages of 20 to 24 and $793 for the 25-34-year-old cohort. Older, higher income workers are retiring and being replaced by younger, lower-wage workers.
Additionally, the continued movement from a goods-producing society to one focused more on services also impacts average wage data. Factory workers on average earn $27 per hour while construction workers are near $30 per hour. This contrasts with the largest service sectors for job gains of retailing and leisure & hospitality that pay $19 and $16 per hour respectively. As the monthly wage data reported with the employment numbers excludes tips and bonuses (which are more prevalent in the service sectors) along with benefits, it is apparent why the Federal Reserve focuses more on the Employment Cost Index which includes those costs in the metric and displays a more healthy (though still moderate) pace of compensation growth. Demographics continue to be a deflationary force in our economy and it will be a challenge to achieve historical levels of wage growth within this dynamic.
Robust consumer spending has been a critical anchor for the nine-year-old economic expansion. But for over two years now, real personal consumer spending has exceeded real disposable personal income. To maintain spending during this period, consumers reduced their savings rate to a 10-year low (from over 6.1% in late 2015 to a recent reading of 2.8%) and continued to increase credit card borrowing. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 got off to a slow start due to withholding issues being addressed in the first quarter, but the current period may represent the peak for disposable income increases and spending data has lifted.
The rebound in consumer spending during the second quarter has been viewed as a confirmation that the U.S. consumer is back and healthy. Recent strong retail spending data along with still solid automobile sales may mask some building concerns.
Rising inflation has eaten away U.S. workers' recent pay gains. Real average hourly earnings were negative on a year-over-year basis in June rising 2.7% nominally but behind the increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 2.8%. This disappointing report broke a 14-month stretch of positive inflation-adjusted earnings, which help show how much of their pay increases consumers are getting to keep. This is critical for if nominal gains in wages are exceeded by rising consumer costs, workers are falling further behind.
The calculus is even more concerning for the lower quintiles of income distribution especially pertaining to the impact of rising gas prices. According to analysis from Deutsche Bank, the bottom 40% of wage earners are experiencing rising gas prices that more than offset the 1% or less increase in after tax incomes (chart below left). Unfortunately, these lower income cohorts spend more on gas as a share of their income. Therefore, the 20% increase in the cost of filling their gas tanks exceeds the after-tax benefit of the tax cut.
The increase in credit card borrowing during the last two years peaked on a year-over-year basis in November of 2017 at almost 16%. Credit card and other consumer debt (specifically auto loans) remain another area where the impact of rising inflation and increasing interest rates are a rising concern.
The average credit card debt per borrower is estimated at $5,700. The level slowed into early 2018 but has been growing 4.7% per year over the last four years while wages are growing at less than 3% according to data from the Federal Reserve. Credit card reporting company Trans Union suggests that rising rates impact over 92M consumers in the U.S., 9.3M of them severely with cards carrying an average interest rate of 16.8%.
The household Debt Service Ratio compares the total required household debt payments to total disposable personal income so is often viewed as a good measure of the stress of the individual consumer. Though this ratio has risen from a cycle low of 9.9% to the current 10.3%, it remains in a very comfortable zone and well below the peak in 3Q 2007 of 13.22%. However, upon closer inspection there appear to be cracks in the armor of the consumer.
This Debt Service Ratio is comprised of two parts, the mortgage component and the consumer component. With mortgage rates locked in for most existing homeowners, it is the variable component of consumer debt payments that is more quickly impacted by rising interest rates. The impact on housing may be more dramatic over time but affects new homebuyers more in the early stages of a rising rate environment. The chart below focuses on debt payments and indicates this ratio at 5.9% is the highest level since the Great Recession. Indeed, we are now seeing credit card and auto delinquency rates rising to levels last seen in 2012. Though not at alarming levels, the trend is obvious.
Following the bust of the housing market, nearly 4 million single-family homes, many purchased in foreclosure auctions, became rentals (about 3% of the total housing stock). Private equity, hedge funds and large single investors who own dozens or even hundreds of properties are a rising force in U.S. cities, and their purchases have taken a big chunk of homes off the market. There are fewer single-family homes for sale than at any time since 1982. Adjusted for the nation's population gains in that time, the shortage is even more severe.
As one might expect, this lack of supply has caused home prices to continue to rise over 6% per year during the recovery more than double the level of income growth. Analysts have expected this paucity of inventories to precipitate a housing construction boom. On the contrary, fewer homes are being built per capita than at almost any time in history. We have discussed in prior commentaries many of the reasons for this including fewer vacant lots, land use restrictions, building material costs, and a skilled worker shortage. What's clear is that new construction in most major cities remains vastly outpaced by demand.
Over the past several months, the pace of U.S. home sales has shown few signs of growth, and as of May 2018, overall home sales were only slightly higher compared with year-ago levels with existing home sales having declined over 3% during this period. Analysts have pointed to this tight housing supply as the key constraint holding back the housing market. However, statistics on housing inventories indicate shortages only for existing homes, while the supply of new homes remains at a relatively healthy level. Existing and new home supplies typically move in sync.
The dearth of inventory is best analyzed by comparing the ratio of homes for sale to homes sold in a given month. Historically, the months' supplies of new and existing homes have moved in tandem since new and existing homes tend to be close substitutes. However, the chart below shows that in 2015 the relative supplies of new and existing homes began moving in different directions: The supply of new homes remained relatively unchanged while the supply of existing homes fell to a historically low 3.6 months' worth of inventory before rising this Spring to 4.1. This divergence implies that new and existing homes have possibly become weaker substitutes for one another.
A major reason for this may be found in the changing characteristics of the new home market where builders have focused on higher quality and in turn higher-end markets as the cost constraints noted above have made lower-end homes unprofitable to build. In 2006, the median sales price of new single-family homes was just 10% above the median sales price of existing single-family homes. Since 2010, that gap has averaged over 30%. During this period, the average square footage of new homes has grown by 10% and homes with at least four bedrooms has increased to 46% from 35%. As a result, the traditional first-time homebuyer looking for lower and middle tier housing has increasingly been priced out of the new home market and forced to forage in the existing home market. Recent actions by the administration has exacerbated this situation as 20% tariffs on lumber from Canada has beenthe main culprit behind a near 100% rise in the cost of lumber since January of 2017. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) estimates this has increased the cost of a new single-family home by over $9,000.
Another concern on which we have commented is the expectation of "rate lock" potentially impacting the availability of homes for sale. According to Core Logic, a leading provider of property data, this is now becoming a reality as 50% of all existing homeowners had a mortgage rate of 3.75% or less. Evidently all those refinancing commercials were very successful. However, with current mortgage rates now at a seven-year high of 4.6% and rising, many homeowners are being forced to stay put rather than sell their home, struggle to find a new home given the lack of inventory and rising prices and take out a new mortgage with a higher interest rate.
Moreover, we continue to fear that the supply constraints of inventory, rising prices and mortgage rates will remain a high hurdle for many first-time homebuyers despite the strong labor market and growing wages.
Though auto sales have softened as expected following the late 2017 rebound after the twin hurricanes of Harvey and Irma (see chart below), they have remained at solid levels. According to Experian's State of the Automotive Finance Market Report, a quarterly review of the most recent trends impacting the auto finance market notes the rise in loan amounts, monthly payments and interest rates for new vehicles. In fact, average new vehicle loan amounts and monthly payments continue to set record highs.
Experian also notes that the average new vehicle loan hit $31,455 in 1Q 2018, an increase of $921 from the previous year and up almost $5,000 from 1Q 2013. The monthly payment for a new vehicle climbed to $523, a $15 increase over the same period with the average interest rate for a new vehicle rising to 5.17% during the quarter.
The explanation for such a modest increase in the payment despite rising loan values and interest rates is that loan terms for new vehicles have also increased during the quarter (slightly above 69 months). While 72-month loans remain the most common loan term, loan terms between 73 and 84 months are now more than 34% of the market compared with less than 7% in late 2009. Even more new loans have now spilled into the 85-96-month bucket.
The extension of the duration of payments may seem innocuous, but it has and will continue to perpetuate an upward bias to monthly payments. According to Edmunds, almost one-third of cars traded in last year were worth less than the loans outstanding with the average car being traded in underwater by $5,130. The dealer sells the used car, and whatever balance remains on the old loan is folded into the new loan. The borrower then extends the length of the loan to help keep monthly payments manageable. More and more borrowers are getting deeper into car debt with every car purchased. Rising rates will only exacerbate this concern.
The population segments most impacted are subprime and deep subprime consumers. The percentage of new vehicle loans to subprime and deep subprime consumers has decreased by 8.4% and 14.1%, respectively. The percentage of new vehicle loans to prime and super-prime consumers has reached 73.4%, the highest 1Q level since 2012 – a sign that some lenders have become more risk-averse. While this should contain delinquencies, it will also further inhibit the growth of vehicle sales.
Talk of a synchronized worldwide expansion heralding a longer period of sustainable growth quieted somewhat in the final quarter of 2017. Still the global economy broke from the gates in the new year with a solid degree of forward momentum. This has continued to fade, however, in the first half of the year. Amid concerns of rising protectionism and trade wars, world export volumes have slowed sharply with the year-over-year rate of export growth dropping from a booming pace of over 5% throughout late 2016 and all of 2017 to just 1.1% as of the most recent data from late March (see chart below from Wells Fargo-WF).
The slowdown in growth experienced by many developed economies in 1Q followed an impressive 3.8% global growth rate for 2017. This slower growth appears for now to be more a sign of the late stages of a global expansion rather than a major downturn. However, attention must be paid to the potential impacts of escalating trade wars at a time when the central banks of the developed economies are turning off the spigots of liquidity that helped fuel the current expansion.
The Eurozone (EZ) economy expanded at 2.5% for the full year of 2017, the fastest pace since 2007. Indeed, the 4Q print accelerated to a year-over-year pace of 2.8%, the highwater mark of the expansion. That pace is likely behind us. Final readings on the 1Q growth rates have slowed to a 1.5% annual rate (chart below left from WF) with industrial production posting negative rates of growth through the early part of the year.
Throughout much of the expansion, the EZ was unable to achieve the mandated target of the European Central Bank (ECB) of a 2% inflation rate. The primary cause may have been the weak dollar which created a major headwind from the beginning of 2017 as the Euro rose more than 20% versus the dollar during this period. The strength in the Euro effectively depressed all import inflation and slowed export growth (critical to the EZ as it represents over 40% of GDP) as prices on exports rose. Since April, however, the Euro has retreated by almost6% versus the U.S. currency. This has finally precipitated the hoped-for elevation in the CPI from 1.3% to the most recent reading of 1.9% (chart on preceding page). While the core rate of inflation (ex-food & energy) remains below target at 1.1%, it too has started to rise.
Though slowing from the unsustainable pace of growth in 2017, we still expect the Eurozone to grow close to 2% this year, a level that given demographics may still be above its long-term trend. The largest threat to the EZ may not be found in growth, inflation or even political or protectionist concerns. Rather, it may be found in how the region responds to the end of the Quantitative Easing (QE) and Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) that has underpinned growth in the region since 2014.
On June 14th, the ECB laid out plans on how they will wind down the nearly €2.5T bond-buying program. In a statement, the ECB said it would reduce its bond purchases from a €30B monthly pace through September to €15B monthly in October through December. At that point, purchases will end though interest rates will be held in negative territory until the summer of 2019. This decision to start phasing out the easy money policies comes at a difficult time with the economy solid but slowing alongside burgeoning trade wars and political turbulence in Italy.
Among the major advanced economies in Europe, only Greece suffered a deeper and more protracted economic downturn during the financial crisis. These two countries were both carrying debt burdens of over 100% of GDP placing both firmly at risk for any major economic shocks. Little has changed for Italy since as an economic malaise and banking vulnerabilities have moved debt burdens even higher despite the efforts of the ECB to keep interest rates exceptionally low. Political upheaval and social unrest is no surprise for a country that recently voted for its 62nd administration since the end of World War II.
The per capita GDP in Italy in 2018 remains 8% below the level achieved in 2007 before the financial crisis triggered the Great Recession. Currently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) still projects that by 2023 Italy will still not have clawed their way back from the cumulative output losses of the last decade.
While a bailout by the ECB may still be the direction chosen, this would only serve to kick the can down the road and temporarily calm markets. A restructuring (default?) of Italy's debt may be needed but this is a challenge that is distinct from that of Greece where governments and other international organizations held the majority of the debt. In Italy most of the outstanding liabilities are held by domestic residents, a scenario where a restructuring might send the economy spiraling further if capital were to leave the country. While we expect the ECB and Italian lawmakers to aim for a resolution, the challenges may be too much.
The burgeoning trade fight with the U.S. comes at a difficult time for China with President Xi Jinping facing many economic headwinds. The Trump administration feels Beijing to be vulnerable on trade despite the country's reduction in its reliance on exports which now account for less than one-third of GDP compared with more than double that figure as recently as 2006. By contrast, trade accounts for about 10% of the gross domestic product in the U.S.
However, China exported an estimated $505.5B to the U.S in 2017 compared with only $129.9B from the U.S. to China. These exports are still a major reason why China's growth has been able to achieve and even exceed the government's targets during a period where efforts to slow debt growth has resulted in multiyear lows in factory and fixed asset investments. Additionally, China appears much more reliant on what it is that they do import from the U.S. such as machinery and technology. Deutsche Bank AG estimates that an escalation of the conflict to include $200 billion of Chinese exports would shave between 0.2% and 0.3% from China's annual GDP growth.
Chinese officials have been bracing for a trade war for months, promising to match the Trump administration measure for measure. Given the disparity in trade, they will run out of measures long before the U.S. The efforts to contain debt growth by slowing investment at the same time as an escalating trade war is causing some in theChina government to call for a reopening of the credit spigot before the trade conflict further dents growth. How China adjusts its economic policy will depend on how much worse the trade fight with the U.S. becomes.
With this backdrop, it is no surprise that the Chinese equity markets have entered a bear market having declined over 20%. While this is more of a closed market and has little impact on the rest of the globe, the Chinese currency is more problematic. A recent tumble in the yuan (see chart below) has somewhat blindsided forecasters and is causing some to worry about potential contagion. This may be a policy tool as depreciating the yuan is one of the two most likely options for China to consider in response to any further tariff impositions on the part of the U.S.
A weaker yuan could make China's huge export industry more competitive globally, as its makes Chinese products cheaper for buyers who pay in dollars. It appears the main reason for the decline, however, is more likely the strong U.S. dollar as the Chinese currency is still relatively strong compared with other major trading partners such as the euro. This remains front and center in what should be watched as a yuan descent in late 2015 into early 2016 triggered a correction in global markets.
Japan is the world's third-largest single economy and following more than two years of uninterrupted quarterly growth (the longest such streak since 1989), it contracted at an annualized rate of -0.6% in the first quarter of 2018 (chart top left on following page). Following four quarters where the expansion averaged a full 2%, we do not mark this as a major turning point or the start of recession. However, some of the factors that weighed on growth in the first quarter are emblematic of the challenges facing the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in its efforts to spur the economy enough to sustain its target of 2.0% inflation (chart top right on following page from WF). The animal spirits needed to foment a self-sustaining recovery are clearly missing despite some improving economic data.
Japan's labor market tightened even further in May with the unemployment rate moving to a microscopic 2.2% from 2.5%, a 26-year low. With job openings to applicants at the lowest level since 1974, it is hard to imagine wage pressures not beginning to build and inflation following suit. However, after years of a stagnant and contracting economy, Japanese workers remain skeptical and this is manifested in both low consumer confidence figures and tepid spending. Consumer confidence in Japan has been basically flat over the past year or so, and data on retail sales and consumer spending have been inconclusive in 2018, up one month and down the next in (see chart below from WF). Still, as is the case in the United States, a very tight job market should eventually be supportive of higher wage growth which, in turn, should engender future household spending growth.
Following a strong start to 2018, emerging markets stocks have suffered due to political risks and trade clashes between the U.S. and China alongside a rising U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. Following a 10% rise into late January, emerging market stocks as measured by the MSCI-EM index have since declined over 17% into early July, a period that coincides with a near 7% rise in the U.S. dollar.
Globalization has been the key process that has lifted emerging markets over the last quarter century. Trade clashes between the U.S. and China along with the U.S moving towards a more protectionist policy has placed major tension on this thesis. With many analysts fearing potential panic and contagion in this region caused by debt levels that have grown substantially since the financial crisis, fears of the impact of a strong dollar are pronounced. Indeed, in June alone, Emerging Market central banks spent $57B in currency interventions (the most in two years) to arrest the decline in their currencies which are, in aggregate, still down 3% for the year.
Much of emerging market debt is denominated in the dollar. A rise in the dollar means it costs more in local currency to pay back these debts. When the dollar appreciates, foreign central banks (particularly emerging economy central banks) tend to lean against local currency weakness by tightening policy. When the dollar declines, the opposite is usually the case. Hence, the close inverse correlation between the dollar, commodity prices and emerging market risk assets. After financial crises in Latin America in the 1980s and Asia in the 1990s, emerging market governments drastically reduced their foreign currency borrowing denominating an increasing amount of their debt in local currencies to ameliorate this concern.
While total emerging market debt has certainly increased over the last decade, a further analysis shows this to be more of a China issue. At 94% of GDP the non-financial corporate sector accounts for close to half of total emerging market debt in contrast to developed economies where debt is more evenly spread across the government, household, non-financial corporate and financial sectors.
However, this distortion may be almost entirely attributed to the rise in China's nonfinancial sector leverage over the past decade (principally State-Owned Enterprises or SOE). As a percent of GDP, nonfinancial sector debt has risen to 161% from 97% in 4Q2007, and China's share in overall emerging market GDP has risen to 42% from 23% in 4Q2007. China makes up almost half of the story.
Excluding China, emerging markets have recorded a much more measured increase in leverage across all four sectors to a more evenly distributed debt profile, albeit with typically lower leveraged household and financial sectors. Outside of China, debt to GDP ratios for the government, household, non-financial corporate and financial sectors stand at 50%, 28%, 48% and 23%, respectively, up from 4Q2007 levels of 40%, 23%, 39% and 21%. The increases outside of China have been very controlled as the charts below from Credit Suisse depict.
In 2018, investors find themselves in a new environment compared to last year that was characterized by perhaps the most benign environment in recent investing memory. Volatility has returned with a vengeance due to a more aggressive Federal Reserve and mounting geopolitical and trade tensions. Outsized earnings growth amplified by the corporate tax cuts and enhanced buybacks has engendered a reduction in valuations as earnings have risen far in excess of stock prices.
Though we remain concerned about the potential impacts of a continued escalation in trade wars, we must remember that the reaction and concern of the financial markets to political and geopolitical developments have long been overexaggerated. Markets currently remain near peak levels as the economy has continued to accelerate and corporate earnings growth has rarely been stronger. With massive deregulation and large corporate tax cuts continuing to benefit corporate America, the recent trajectory may have a much longer path.
Despite the early 10% decline in the major averages in late January and increasing volatility, the major domestic indices enjoyed a modest first half of 2018 with the S&P 500 returning 2.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average returning 1.3%. Returns in the large cap space of the U.S. market have been increasingly characterized by the leadership of a few names concentrated in the technology and consumer sectors. In fact, almost 90% of the entire return for the S&P 500 so far this year can be attributed to Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Netflix and Facebook, a trend that was almost as pronounced in 2017. We would prefer that the advances be more broad for a more healthy market environment.
With tax reform providing a huge jolt, 1Q earnings for companies in the S&P 500 grew by over 24.8% according to data provided by FactSet and are estimated to again exceed 20% in 2Q. Comparisons will begin to get more difficult over the next few quarters, and we should expect a slowing in the growth rate. Aside from the high hurdles of the last few earnings periods, trade/tariff impacts, rising labor and input costs along with the stronger dollar and rising interest rates may all present headwinds to earnings growth. However, corporate America has continued to face challenges on the cost side of the equation yet profit margins continue to mine new and higher levels.
While noting that both the economy and the corporate earnings picture have accelerated in 2018, we should be careful to extrapolate that as a foundational logic for a higher stock market. What is good for "Main Street" is actually rarely good for "Wall Street" as the stock market tends to discount the future. If the present is strong, it is often the case that the future may be less strong, and the market will often anticipate these inflection points. As the chart below from Charles Schwab indicates, the vulnerability of the equity market in March of 2000 corresponded with powerful economic data while the horrific economic scenario around March of 2009 portended a major market move.
With a Federal Reserve intent on normalizing interest rates combined with escalating geopolitical tensions present challenges for investors. At Coho Partners our focus continues to be on downside protection. We seek to provide this from the construction of a differentiated portfolio populated with high quality companies with resilient earnings streams, growing dividends, strong balance sheets and reasonable levels of expectations and valuations.


Overview: This is a special version of "Piano Master", dedicated to the national anthems of the countries of the world. It includes 32 songs.
Overview: This is a special version of "Piano Master", dedicated to Chopin, that includes 49 of it's best piano compositions.
WARNING: this is not for beginners, all the songs are from high to very high difficulty.
Overview: This is a special version of "Piano Master", dedicated to Mozart, that includes 21 of it's best piano compositions.
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Overview: Pocket Tanks is the fast-paced artillery game that is simple to learn, and fun to master.
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Thank you for supporting Pocket Tanks with positive reviews! More updates are on the way.
Deluxe accessed by clicking on the Get Deluxe Version -> Restore Previous Deluxe Purchase. This action should be repeated every time you run the game.
Overview: Jota is a text editor designed for a long text file.
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Supports until 2 files at same time.
PRO-KEY app is now on sale!
▼Jota+ doesn't support Right-to-Left language, too.
I prohibit to distribute Jota+ in places other than Google Play.
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I may not reply to all request. But I'll read all mail. Thanks.
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K-10 Mail Pro is the first and only email client for Android!
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Thanks for your continued support! For our upcoming releases we will continue to make Words with Friends load faster and allow players to end a game on an opponent's turn!
The game is a sequel to critically acclaimed Anomaly Warzone Earth strategy. Maintaining the core elements of the original, Anomaly 2 adds new features to the single player campaign and finally puts your skills to a test in a completely unique experience: tower defense vs tower offense dynamic multiplayer mode!
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Overview: Pocketfleet is a MOBA (Multiplayer Online Battle Arena) released for mobile. It is a free multiplayer space dogfight game where users can match up with thousands of other players online in this fast paced space shooter.
Pocketfleet is a MOBA (Multiplayer Online Battle Arena) released for mobile. It is a free multiplayer space dogfight game where users can match up with thousands of other players online in this fast paced space shooter.
The once human Omnitron is now uploaded their minds to cyberspace and using cybernetic bodies.
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text:
Sports Book Reviews
Bruce Peninsula
Georgian Bay Sailing
Georgian Bay Shipping
Hockey History
Owen Sound Hockey History
Owen Sound Stories:
On the Attack!
Owen Sound Stories: On the Attack! Throughout the history of the community, citizens were not afraid to go on the attack to promote the needs of their town.
This week we learned that the Owen Sound OHL hockey team will be known as the Attack
On the surface there does not seem to be any historical significance to this name. However, a quick review of the history of this region reveals that "attack" does represent the history of the area.
For instance: When it seemed that the OHL franchise had been lost to Cornwall, some hockey fans and concerned citizens went on the attack. They mounted a fund-raising campaign and their efforts created the change necessary to keep the team in Owen Sound.
In the early 1840s, the settlers of this area discovered that the colonial government had issued an order to the land agents in the area to evict land holders who had not fulfilled all their duties according to their settlement agreement.
A public meeting was held, and the citizens of the area went on the attack. They drew up a petition and nominated Nathaniel Herriman to take their case to the government.
The key to the settlers' argument was that the government had promised to complete the Garafraxa Road to entice further settlement. However, the government had only met a small portion of their responsibility.
The attack led by Herriman successfully convinced the government not to act on their plans to evict settlers.
In 1851, it was learned that a railway was going to be built into the region. However, rather than attack, the leaders of the community chose a complacent stance, thinking that their location would win the railway terminus just because it was the best. When Collingwood was chosen instead of Owen Sound to host the railway terminus, the citizens of this area learned a valuable lesson.
If they wanted something, they would have to attack to achieve a favourable result.
The lesson learned in the 1850s remained in the minds of the community for a long time. In the 1870s Owen Sound was embroiled in a bitter competition with Collingwood for maritime supremacy on Georgian Bay.
To improve their port and increase their share of the maritime traffic in the area, it was decided that the harbour should be dredged.
A group of community leaders from the commercial and political sectors got together and made plans create an environment which would give Owen Sound control of the development of their harbour.
They decided to buy their own dredging equipment. It was learned that the necessary equipment was about to go on sale in Collingwood.
The group went on the attack. A member of this committee was sent to Collingwood to purchase the dredging equipment. The dredges and scows were soon hard at work in Owen Sound's harbour.
This attack not only helped to increase the maritime trade in Owen Sound, but it also helped to attract the attention of the CPR, who in 1882 made Owen Sound the eastern terminus for its Great Lakes fleet.
In the 1890s, the leaders of Owen Sound were worried that the CPR was taking them for granted and they wanted to broaden the economic base of the community.
Once again, Owen Sound went on the attack.
They negotiated a favourable deal with the Grand Trunk Railway and that company built a line of steel into the town.
In 1897, under the leadership of Mayor T.I. Thompson, the town started an aggressive campaign to attract more commercial and industrial enterprises to the community.
This activity proved to valuable to Owen Sound a decade later in 1912 when the CPR moved its headquarters operations across Georgian Bay to Port McNicoll.
Although the absence of the CPR had an impact on the harbour economy, the actions taken in the 1890s had broadened the economic base of the town to the point that Owen Sound continued to prosper.
These are just a few Owen Sound stories when the citizens have gone on the attack and produced positive results for the community.
The history of this region proves that when the need to protect or promote this area arises, the citizens go on the attack.
A version of this story first appeared in my Local History column in the Owen Sound Sun Times on June 9, 2000.
More Great Information Pages
About Owen Sound
Charles Rankin, I Presume: October 7, 1840 marked the meeting of Land Agent John Telfer and surveyor Charles Rankin on the banks of the Sydenham River and the founding of Owen Sound.
Black History: Emancipation Day celebrates the abolition of slavery and it continues to be an annual celebration in many locations that were in some way, or another touched by the impact of slavery.
Black History in Owen Sound: Who was the First Black Citizen in the community is a cause for debate.
Black History: The Underground Railway is an important part not only in terms of black history, but of the history of southwestern Ontario.
Black History of Owen Sound: Version 2: There is some debate about the first black citizen in the Owen Sound area. Here is more information for your consideration.
A Curvy Route to Toronto provided a rail connection between Owen Sound and Toronto, the curvy part was thrilling, but beautiful for the passengers and strenuous for the crew.
Billy Bishop: Owen Sound Hero earned national and international fame as a World War One Fighter pilot and used his high profile to aid in the World War Two effort.
John Muir, the legendary naturalist, who promoted the idea of protected nature spaces, spent time in Ontario and I went to help find evidence of his stay in the Owen Sound area.
Black Clawson Kennedy: An Iconic Owen Sound Industry provided income for area residents and economic development for the community for almost 150 years.
Amalgamation In and Around Owen Sound is not an unusual happening. Some form of boundary changes have occurred at many different times over the years.
Canada' First Pharmacy Chain Store: The Owen Sound-based drug store chain of Parker and Cattle is credited with being the first pharmacy chain store enterprise in Canada.
DC Taylor: Owen Sound Entrepreneur was not only progressive businessman, he was also an important contributor to the social and cultural fabric of his community.
Owen Sound Businesses: 1920s were owned and operated by families whose deep roots in the community and their efforts had created the backbone of the community and brought success to the port city.
Owen Sound: Dry Gulch Canada Learn the reason why Owen Sound was the last city in the grasp of the temperance movement.
First Cars in Owen Sound could be purchased for less than $500.00!
The harbour history of Owen Sound is rich with detail of businesses which were located at various wharves.
Hillcrest School Memories a look back at my public school days when Owen Sound's Hillcrest Public School celebrated its 50th anniversary in 1998.
News of War: The 1940s was supposed to provide the world with a respite after the hardship of the 1930s depression. However World War Two brought more adversity.
Owen Sound 1840 Onward! From a clearing in the Georgian Bay wilderness to a booming port city the 1800s were a time of growth and prosperity.
Owen Sound's First Newspaper: The Comet came into existence a mere 10 years after the first settlers braved the wilderness that would become the Grey and Bruce region.
Owen Sound's First Town Council was created to develop the necessary infrastructure for a pioneer community to grow and prosper.
Owen Sound Tavern Bylaw (1857) tried to tackle the issue of monitoring taverns in the Upper Canadian pioneer wilderness.
Owen Sound's 1857 Bylaw: Dog Control illustrated how a pioneer town controlled dogs in the community, sometimes even using harsh measures.
Owen Sound CPR Strike in 1908 immobilized harbour activities in that important Georgian Bay port, the CPR's eastern Great Lakes terminus.
Owen Sound CPR Link began with a bang, suffered a setback, and ended with a whimper.
Owen Sound Entrepreneurs: S.J. Parker & Richard Notter used their wealth and their friendships to built many community-oriented businesses in the late 1800s and early 1900s.
Owen Sound 1920 Stories provide an interesting look at the community as it was about to become a city.
Owen Sound 1920s: Optimism abounded in the port city as a new decade began, The town was becoming a city and the economic outlook seemed bright.
Owen Sound Hospital History is one of a community coming together to take care of the medical needs of the entire community.
Owen Sound Softball and Baseball has a Long Tradition From the 1980s Clippers and the Wawanekas to the 1990s Selects, Owen Sound has a been well-represented in these sports.
Owen Sound Street Names honour the individuals who made a contribution to Owen Sound's development. Today the streets are numbered to help visitors find their way.
O.S.C.V.I.: the History of an Owen Sound High School details from the very beginning the establishment of a high school in the community.
Pioneer Story of a Child in 1846 Owen Sound details life in the last wilderness in Upper Canada in the 1840s.
Pioneer Story of a Child in 1846 (Part 2) continues the memories of Elizabeth Byth as she encountered life in the Upper Canada wilderness that became Owen Sound.
Pioneer Theatre was a big hit in Owen Sound and across southern Ontario, where Vaudevillians like Perth Ontario's Marx Brothers played to full houses.
U.S. President Taft Visited Owen Sound Ontario, a Georgian Bay port in a momentous winter of events in 1920 as Owen Sound celebrated its incorporation as a ci
Some Interesting 20th Century Events in Owen Sound: One, in particular featured a mayor acting to avert a major labour-related confrontation.
The 1940's: An Eventful Decade in Owen Sound and Grey County: A war; a surprising political event; sports celebrations and much more.
Wawanekas: Fastball pioneers who were a legendary women's fastball team from Owen Sound who dominated their sport for a decade or more.
Political Corruption in 1852 Owen Sound? Does it seem possible that this could happen in a pioneer community on the Georgian Bay shores? Read on, and decide.
Emily Pankhurst Visits Owen Sound. The well-known suffragette visited Owen Sound and spoke not only about suffrage, but the bolshevik threat.
Owen Sound Church History: First United Church was in fact the very first church in the Owen Sound community. It was preceded only Rev Neelands a circuit rider.
Lacrosse History in Owen Sound begins in the late nineteenth century and records the numerous championships that have been captured by Owen Sound teams.
Pioneer Ingenuity: Building Lime Kilns was essential for pioneers as without lime they could not build their brick homes.
Boosterism in 1890s Owen Sound targeted promoting economic development in Owen Sound. The port city showcased what it had to offer investors and visitors alike.
A pioneer home was very utilitarian. It served the pioneer family's essential needs, while the work of clearing the land and planting crops took priority.
Pioneer justice might be described as ruthless. But the question remains, did they always get the right man?
CPR Grain Elevator Fire in 1911 in Owen Sound harbour would have a profound impact on that Georgian Bay community.
Reverend Ryerson Visits Owen Sound and despite a great reception from the citizens of the community, he posts a negative newspaper story of the community.
The Leith Golf Course has provided many families with great memories. The history of this golf course starts, and ends, with the generosity of one family
Fenians: A Threat: The threat of an attack by Fenians was very real in Upper Canada in the 1860s and this was especially true in port communities like Owen Sound.
Inglis Falls is not only a beautiful place to enjoy nature, it is also the home of one of Owen Sound's first industries.
An Owen Sound pioneer, A.M. Stephens provided us with a story about his early years helping to carve out a community in this part of Georgian Bay.
Pioneer industry: William Kennedy William Kennedy's efforts to build an important foundry and machine shop on the banks of Owen Sound's harbour.
Pioneer Resort: King's Royal Park From 1840 meeting to opulent pioneer resort, the citizens of Owen Sound have always worked hard to promote the economic growth and development of their community, and their part of the Georgian Bay shoreline.
Sailing stories: Owen Sound Shipbuilding from the earliest time of settlement busy shipyards dotted the Owen Sound bay where shipbuilding took place, sometimes at a feverish pace.
Spanish Flu Impacted Owen Sound, Ontario causing illness and death throughout the region. But it also illustrated the strength of the community spirit in the area.
Golf Course Review: Stone Tree Golfing at the Stone Tree Golf Club, a golfer can also enjoy sighting American Goldfinches, Purple Martins and the majestic Blue Heron while they pursue their quest to improve their golf game!
Owen Sound Ontario: A Unique Perspective: Book provides a unique and humorous perspective about this Georgian Bay port and hockey hotbed.
Water Quality in Owen Sound has been an issue since the 1840s, two Owen Sound entrepreneurs in the 1870s attempted to rectify the situation.
Owen Sound, located on beautiful Georgian Bay offers a wide variety of entertainment and shopping delights for visitors of all ages. The city and its surrounding area has a rich history, parks and other natural areas for bird watchers, hikers, cross country skiers, etc.
Owen Sound Stories: On the Attack!
Charles Rankin, I Presume
Building the Garafraxa Road
Black History: Emancipation Day
Black History: The Underground Railway
Black History in Owen Sound: the First Black Citizens
Black History of Owen Sound: Version 2
Black Clawson Kennedy: An Iconic Owen Sound Industry
Owen Sound City Hall Fire
Amalgamation In and Around Owen Sound is not so Unusual
The 1900s in Owen Sound: A Century of Survival
A "Curvy" Route to Toronto
Billy Bishop: Owen Sound Hero
DC Taylor: Owen Sound Entrepreneur
Ethnic Groups: A Large Part in Owen Sound's History
Owen Sound Businesses in the 1920s: The Backbone of the Community
Owen Sound: Dry Gulch Canada
Owen Sound Fall Fair
Canada's First Pharmacy Chain
First Cars in Owen Sound
Interesting 20th Century Events in Owen Sound
Harbour History of Owen Sound
Hillcrest School Memories
The 1940's: An Eventful Decade in Owen Sound and Grey County
The History of the Owen Sound Hospital
Local Politics: An Ongoing Task
News of War: the 1940s
Owen Sound: 1840 Onward!
Owen Sound's First Newspaper: The Comet
Owen Sound's First Town Council
Owen Sound Tavern Bylaw (1857)
Owen Sound's 1857 Bylaw: Dog Control
Owen Sound CPR Strike
Owen Sound CPR Link
Owen Sound entrepreneurs: S.J. Parker & Richard Notter
Owen Sound: 1920 Stories
Owen Sound 1920s: Optimism Abounded
Owen Sound Softball and Baseball has a Long Tradition
Owen Sound Street Names
Owen Sound Wawanekas: Women's Fastball Legends
O.S.C.V.I.: the History of an Owen Sound High School
Pioneer Story of a Child in 1846 Owen Sound
Pioneer Story of a Child in 1846 (Part 2)
Pioneer Theatre in Owen Sound
Political Corruption in 1852 Owen Sound?
Emily Pankhurst Visits Owen Sound
Lacrosse History in Owen Sound
Owen Sound Church History: First United Church
Boosterism in 1890s Owen Sound
A Pioneer Home
Pioneer Ingenuity: Building Lime Kilns
Pioneer Justice
CPR Grain Elevator Fire
Fenians: A Threat
An Owen Sound pioneer, A.M. Stephens
Reverend Ryerson Visits Owen Sound
Pioneer industry: William Kennedy
Pioneer Resort: King's Royal Park
Sailing stories: Owen Sound Shipbuilding
Spanish Flu Impacted Owen Sound, Ontario
Town Clock: A Part of Owen Sound's History
Golf Course Review: Stone Tree
Owen Sound Ontario: A Unique Perspective
U.S. President Taft Visits Owen Sound Ontario
Water Quality in Owen Sound
Leith Golf Course
Get History News
Local Politics an Ongoing Task
Local Politics an Ongoing Task: No matter whether today or early in the history of Grey and Bruce, the trials of local politics seems never to change.
Southampton's Early History
Southampton's Early History was a time of identity crisis, and with a connection to an early Arctic mystery story.
Sir Wilfrid Laurier's Port Elgin Dust-Up
Sir Wilfrid Laurier's Port Elgin Dust-Up: Despite the town's best efforts it would be the clouds of dust that would remind the Prime Minister of his visit.
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Hiring a developmental editor is a big step in your writing career. Set up a free call to make sure you find the right fit. Choose one of our Story Grid Certified Editors to get started.
She specializes in helping writers discover the heart of the story they're trying to tell so that they can tell it more beautifully.
Rachelle's greatest joy is working with writers navigating the process of writing, conquering resistance, and completing their projects in reasonable time frames.


Dr. Grant McGibney has 29 years of experience in research and development in multiple fields including: signal processing, digital hardware design, magnetic resonance imaging, wireless systems, machine vision, touch systems, and acoustics. He has been Director of Wireless Research at TRLabs, an Adjunct Professor at the University of Calgary, Manager of Image Processing at SMART Technologies, and Principal Scientist at Nureva. Notable projects that he has been involved with include: lead researcher in the development of a 150Mbit/s wireless LAN prototype that was a precursor to WiFi (TRLabs, 1992), lead researcher on a 1Gbit/s wireless LAN prototype (TRLabs, 2000), lead engineer in the 40-touch SMART Table 442i product (SMART, 2013), lead touch system engineer in the SMARTBoard 6000 series of products (SMART, 2014), and leader of both research and development teams of the HDL300 audio conferencing product (Nureva, 2017). He is a named inventor on 40 US patents and an author on 19 peer reviewed academic papers. He has taught graduate classes in multi-irate signal processing. Grant is a registered professional engineer.


In 1952 was founded the box-factory SCART, specializing in the production of small packing boxes. From that moment began the continuing growth of the brand Scart Group. In the early '80s there was the conversion of the box factory in the production of industrial packaging, specializing mainly in heavy cardboard, and later in the wood.


Reflex Sympathetic Dystrophy - Law Office of Brent M Thompson, Esq.
Reflexive Sympathetic Dystrophy(RSD) see Complex Regional Pain Syndrome.
Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS), formerly known as Reflex Sympathetic Dystrophy, is a chronic pain condition most often affecting one of the limbs (arms, legs, hands, or feet), usually after an injury or trauma to that limb. CRPS is believed to be caused by damage to, or malfunction of, the peripheral and central nervous systems. The central nervous system is composed of the brain and spinal cord, and the peripheral nervous system involves nerve signaling from the brain and spinal cord to the rest of the body. CRPS is characterized by prolonged or excessive pain and mild or dramatic changes in skin color, temperature, and/or swelling in the affected area.
There are two similar forms, called CRPS-I and CRPS-II, with the same symptoms and treatments. CRPS-II formerly known as Causalgia, is the term used for patients with confirmed nerve injuries. Individuals without confirmed nerve injury are classified as having CRPS-I.
It is estimated that there are between 1.5 and 3 million victims of Reflex Sympathetic Dystrophy in the United States alone, about 75% of which are Women. The majority of victims develop the disease within the ages of 30 – 40, but it can affect anyone at any age.
What are the common symptoms of CRPS?
The most common symptom is prolonged pain that may be constant and, in some people, extremely uncomfortable or severe. The pain may feel like a burning or "pins and needles" sensation, or as if someone is squeezing the affected limb. The pain may spread to include the entire arm or leg, even though the precipitating injury might have been only to a finger or toe. Pain can sometimes even travel to the opposite extremity. There is often increased sensitivity in the affected area, such that even light touch or contact is painful (called allodynia).
Changes in skin texture on the affected area; it may appear shiny and thin.
Abnormal sweating pattern in the affected area or surrounding areas.
Early recognition of the disease, along with proper treatment, is vital in keeping Reflex Sympathetic Dystrophy from becoming a chronic condition. Treatment must begin as soon as possible of onset or the probability of aquiring a long-term disability may increase with each passing day.
Prompt examination and evaluation of Reflex Sympathetic Dystrophy is imperative. The victim of a Nerve Injury needs fast assessment and treatment to minimize the effects of such an injury.
If you or someone you know has suffered from Reflex Sympathetic Dystrophy, Contact Us Immediately.


text:
NAMM Donates 10 Scholarships for HBCU Students to Attend Conn-Selmer Institute
Every year the Historical Black Colleges and Universities (HBCU) hosts a consortium, and this year it was held in Atlanta, Georgia. During the closing banquet, the National Association of Music Merchants (NAMM) made a generous announcement, supporting 10 HBCU students with full paid scholarships to attend the upcoming Conn-Selmer Institute (CSI).
Conn-Selmer annually sponsors the HBCU Consortium and this year many Conn-Selmer Schools from across the country were in attendance, including the University of Arkansas, South Carolina State University, Cheney University of Pennsylvania and Savannah State University. There are 105 historically black colleges and universities in the United States. A Conn-Selmer company representative attending the evening's event stated, "We are proud to support this organization and its mission to further advance the musicianship of its membership now and for many years to come," said Mike Kamphuis, Senior Director of Product Marketing.
Congratulations to the 10 honored recipients attending this year's Conn-Selmer Institute. A huge thanks to NAMM for their efforts and contribution, without them this would not be possible. This year's CSI is being held June 9-12, 2013 in Mishawaka, Indiana, it promises to be even better than last year and not one to miss!
For more information on CSI go to:
https://www.conn-selmer.com/en-us/educators/conn-selmer-institute/


Semantics can make a huge difference in general perception on how we present our business to Venture Capitals and the phrase "Start Up" is being used in many cases to achieve that. Especially when we see a huge number of budding Start Ups, the concern grows on why they are calling themselves a Start Up rather than a small company just starting up from scratch aka SMEs. This article only focuses on IT Start Ups, although some may relate to other industries as well.
There is nothing wrong in Starting Up a new business with a full proof plan to make profit but calling it a "Start Up" can be misleading to potential investors, especially if the business have no interest in experiments.
To be a start up you have to follow the Implement > Inspect > Adapt route, this is a must. You have to assume that you know much less about the emerging market like anyone else; you have to learn and adapt by Lean Experiments. When you are entering an unknown market of potential, you have no goals because you don't even know what are you getting into, You as the founder is believing in your instinct and is prepared to get your hands dirty at any level.
If you already know your goal, you are NOT a Start Up.
Below are few ways you can differentiate and analyse if you are a start up or not before pitching yourself to investors.
A group of visionaries who believes that they can raise hell, if a chance is given.
A group of employees who is prepared to face the worst.
A family who follows a general rule – if we couldn't raise hell, we will always get a second chance.
Believing that opportunities come only once, if you try to reach there using same formula.
A mindset, that they can never be 100% accurate and there will always be opportunities for something bigger.
Restless to a be the market leader and spend all money in growing business rather than treating yourself with profits. The moment a company starts making profits, they are not a Start Up anymore, doesn't matter how small you are.
A Team who work smart at first to know what they want and then they work hard. If anyone says "Always work smart and not hard" – just remember the largest start ups will not be where they are now if they didn't work hard. Working smart is necessary to establish a strategy, working hard is necessary to achieve that goal.
A group of Cunning Recruiters who don't rely on traditional format of hiring. They hire Smart and Intelligent workforce and never call them a resource like most does. There is a subtle disrespect calling someone that.
A bunch of risk takers who believes in trying 100 times to get one success and 99 unsuccessful attempts. They never quit, if they do it is usually because the Investors have lost the patience. This doesn't mean they failed as long as they create another start up with a completely different idea to try it out.
A team of expert customer focused members – Users are gods, doesn't matter if their idea feels naive and stupid at times. Will they pay, if they have it? Really? Lets do it.
A Bunch of Socialites who wants to connect to users in any mean they can. Always keep a easily accessible customer support group where you encourage off topic chit chat to keep things engaged. Somewhat like in Sales industry where you do anything to keep them in the loop.
SaaS/PaaS start ups usually keep their Roadmap as open as possible and changes are made frequently on demand where possible. If you call yourself a start up, make sure you don't have a rigid product roadmap and changes are only made by user feedback, not by someone influential within the company. Anyone can suggest but they have to back their opinion with data to prove its viability.
Last but not the least, a start up is a big family who likes to do everything as they would do in personal life. They don't see it as "work" as the reason they are here is because it is their personal interest to do something big, something which no one ever did, something they wants to be remembered for.
Posted in Agile, Anti-patterns, It's Only Natural, Kanban, Lean, Meetings, Roadmap, Scrum, Start-up. Bookmark the permalink.


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When an emergency strikes, local police need to be able to quickly assign the right officers with the right skills. Key is having up-to-date information on each officer's work schedule, skills, medical restrictions, most recent time off, and contact details.
Two years ago, it took West Midlands Police (the third-largest police force in the UK) about 11 hours to pull together that level of specificity, says Dean Sweet, assistant director of shared services. Today, it's able to access that critical data in just two minutes through an Oracle Service Cloud portal, which also gives officers and staff a single place to go to update their information and perform an array of administrative tasks.
Easy access to updated data is one of the many improvements made possible by the department's move to centralize back-office operations and introduce a single internal portal, implemented in April 2017, to simplify the customer experience. In August of that year, West Midlands Police also went live with the core HR, recruitment, and onboarding capabilities of Oracle HCM Cloud, as well as the finance, procurement, and expense modules of Oracle ERP Cloud.
When officers and staff log into their personal portal, they can easily update personal information, perform a range of tasks that previously required multiple emails, and file expense reports. Officers who submit expenses through the portal can expect reimbursement in five days or less, rather than in a month, as they did with the old, paper-based system.
He estimates that about 20% of his shared-services staff now focuses on innovation, including how to use new capabilities available in the latest quarterly cloud application releases or still untapped features from previous releases.
Such continuous innovation is one of the big advantages of moving to the cloud, says Lucia Jarrett, a managing director at Accenture, which has partnered with West Midlands Police since 2014 to create and deliver the goals of the WMP 2020 change program, an ambitious project to create a modern, technology-enabled, and more efficient force.
The police department's innovations aren't limited to internal operations. It recently introduced a live chat for citizens to report crimes, leveraging the portal technology. Citizens can also use the site to track a case and quickly get answers to their questions.
One of the shared services team's current initiatives is to improve the on-time payment of supplier invoices, once at only 64% but now up to about 95%, Sweet says. For example, the system identifies suppliers that submitted their last two invoices incorrectly, then alerts the shared services team to work with that supplier to ensure their submissions will be correct going forward.
The West Midlands Police back office is on track to save about £28 million (US$37 million) over the next six years, mostly from staff reductions made possible by the centralization and the move to standard, streamlined processes, Sweet says.
The modernization of shared services is part of the larger WMP 2020 transformation, which focuses on streamlining internal and external processes, in part by using modern technology (such as body cameras, bid data, online training, mobility, and automation) and by changing the culture to become a better partner with the community.
It is the police version of customer-centricity. And because officers and staff have experienced how much easier it is to do a range of tasks through the portal, Sweet's department is constantly getting requests from other areas of the force to add their services.
"For us, the journey continues," he says.