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There's something peculiar about the election polls. The swing state in almost all the plausible scenarios is Ohio, where Obama has a 2.3% lead in the RCP average of state polls. Romney leads the RCP average of national polls by 1.0%, implying a massive 3.3% Democratic tilt in the electoral college. By comparison the EC tilted about 0.5% GOP in 2000 and about 0.3% Democratic in 2004.
Don't get me wrong, I do understand how that sort of margin is mathematically possible; Romney could win lots of safe states by huge margins, and Obama could win even more states by narrower margins. But I'm not seeing state level polls that are consistent with such a big EC tilt to the Dems. Take the 4 big states; California, Texas, NY, and Florida. Obama will win two by big margins and Romney will win one by a big margin. Romney will probably win Florida by a narrow margin. The rest of the country has more states that Romney will win big, but I don't see any evidence that the overall EC tilt is more than 1% Democratic. What am I missing?
And why does Nate Silver give Obama a 71% chance of winning the popular vote, when his own average of national polls show the race tied? Why does Silver think the national polls are wrong?
I predict that if someone took all the state polls, for all 50 states, the aggregate would be substantially more pro-Obama than the national polls. Is there a difference in methodology? If so, which are more reliable?
It seems to me that either the national polls are biased, or the state polls are biased, or else there's a far bigger chance of Romney winning the popular vote and losing in the EC than people like Silver currently believe. In 2000 I said the Electoral College should be abolished, and my GOP friends were horrified. I wonder how they'll feel in a couple weeks.
PS. I suppose one possibility is that if Romney were to rise to plus 3.0 in the national polls, the gains would come disproportionately in the swing states, where he is advertising heavily. But still . . .
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57 Responses to "What am I missing?"
Greg Ransom
Silver knows baseball, not politics ….
You need to read Michael Barone & Rasmussen, who actually know this stuff.
All of the art is in pretending to know Dem vs Rep identification & turnout, and the ground is moving like an earthquake on that over last 4 years and in last 3 weeks.
It's not going to be that close, Romney will win vote & EC handily.
Siver gives Obama a 71% chance of winning because his model gives Obama about a 71% chance of winning Ohio. But then I repeat myself.
Theo Clifford
If Obama wins California and New York by 15 points, and Romney wins Texas by 40 points, that could explain the disparity. It's not just about there being lots of narrowly-Dem states and lots of overwhelmingly-Republican states, although that's probably a factor. It's that the safe Republican states might vote more overwhelmingly for Romney than safe Democratic states do for Obama.
Pincher Martin
But the polling doesn't show Romney winning the big red states (Texas and Georgia) by more than Obama wins the big blue states (California, New York and Illinois). Quite the opposite, in fact.
Real Clear Politics does not even include Texas or Georgia among Romney's most solid states, whereas California, New York and Illinois all make that grade for Obama.
Andy Harless
If you look at Gallup's internals, Romney is trouncing Obama in the South but Obama is slightly ahead in all other regions — which suggests to me that there is a reasonable chance that Obama will win the electoral but not the popular vote.
Nate Silver's view, I think, is that maybe the national polls are wrong, maybe the state polls are wrong, or maybe they're both right, but we can't tell which. Based on state polls alone, I think he would assign Obama a significantly higher probability of electoral college victory, but he allows for the possibility that the national polls are giving us a better picture of what's going on in the swing states. The reason he doesn't see a high probability that Obama will win the electoral college but not the popular vote is that he sees the state-national split as only one of 3 possible interpretations (the other 2 being that one or the other set of polls is wrong). And even if both state and national polls are right, the game isn't over, and there is still (in Nate's model, anyhow) a significant chance of either a Romney electoral victory or an Obama popular victory (especially the latter, since some national polls are showing Obama slightly ahead).
My guess is that there is a large tilt in the electoral college. It's hard to see how Romney can win the electoral college now unless something weird happens, but he could easily win the popular vote (though my guess is he won't, because I think we will see more of a shift toward Obama as the impact of the last debate shows up more thoroughly in the polls, and I think we may see more unlikely voters voting that the polls assume).
Links for the Gallup regional split:
Analysis by Ezra Klein
http://www.gallup.com/poll/158048/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx
These are outdated by now, but they strongly suggest where the split is coming from.
I guess I got the HTML wrong for that second link:
Hopefully it works this time
"It seems to me that either the national polls are biased, or the state polls are biased, or else there's a far bigger chance of Romney winning the popular vote and losing in the EC than people like Silver currently believe."
The last option is the most likely, in my opinion. I think there is a very large chance that Romney will win the popular vote and lose the electoral college. I think Silver's state-by-state analysis is not too bad (because it favors his candidate), but his national vote odds are way off. Silver's MO is to act as a propagandist until a few days before the election, where he changes his model and plays it straight up and gets it right. Mark my words: Silver will show a radical shift towards Romney a couple days before the election; I still think Romney will lose the electoral college, but Silver's analysis will make more sense.
It's funny how the framing can change my impression of the election. If I think, "Romney wins the popular vote, but Obama wins the electoral college because he was ahead in Ohio and a few other important swing states, my next thought is, "So Obama wins on a technicality. Isn't it strange that we let the people of Ohio choose a president for the whole country?" But if I think (see first paragraph of my first comment above), "Romney wins the popular vote, but Obama wins the electoral college because he is ahead in every region except the South," then I think, "OK, Obama wins fair and square. Damned if we're going to let Southerners choose the president just because they're opinions are more lopsided than the rest of us!"
Simon, You don't understand what I'm talking about, read the post again.
Andy, That Gallup is way off–it has Obama up by 4% in the East. He'll win the East by nearly as much as Romney wins the south. I'd guess Romney wins the South by 12% to 13% and Obama wins the East by 11% to 12%
Theo, You are insulting my intelligence. Texas by 40%???
Everyone, Come on, surely someone can answer my question–this is stuff that pundits are going over with a fine tooth comb. It's a big mystery!
I defy anyone to come up with a plausible set of state results that has a 3.3% Dem tilt in the EC. It's much harder than people seem to think.
Here's one way for someone with lots of time on their hands. RCP has about 1/2 the states. For the other half adjust the 2008 margins by however much that group of states were seen as swinging toward toward the GOP. (McCain lost by 7.3%.) That will give you a ballpark estimate of the state results.
Cedric, That makes sense.
Andy, Your first thought was best. Otherwise what to we do with the African- American vote?
I don't trust Gallup's regional breakdown (provided by Andy Harless in his post at 13:03). It shows very little movement toward Romney, relative to McCain's performance in 2008, outside of the south.
Yet Wisconsin, which Obama won by nearly fourteen points in 2008, is nearly even in the polls.
Obama is currently leading in the polls for Michigan by four points, which was a state he won by more than sixteen points in 2008.
Obama won Pennsylvania by more than ten points against McCain, but leads by less than five in the polls this year.
Colorado, which Obama won by nine points in 2008, is tied up this year.
Obama squeaked out a victory in Indiana in 2008, but trails in the state by more than a dozen this year.
All of the states I listed above are above average in population for a U.S. state. None of them are southern.
Meanwhile, some of the southern states haven't moved as much toward Romney as one might expect. North Carolina has moved only four points. That state gave Obama a surprise victory by the smallest of margins in 2008, but is still listed as a swing state this year, with polling showing Romney with less than a four-point advantage. The polls for Virginia show that state has moved about seven points since the last presidential election. The same for Georgia. Florida? About four points.
Compare that to the nearly double-digit moves towards Romney in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada, Connecticut, Oregon, and Colorado.
The only southern state I could find which shows a similarly large move toward Romney over the last four years is the border state Missouri, which appears ready to give the Republican candidate a double-digit victory after nearly going for Obama in 2008. But does Gallup even count Missouri as a southern state?
Silver's model adjusts for "house effects" of certain pollsters. For example, historically Rasmussen has overstated Republicans share of the vote when compared to exit polls, so his model discounts a 3 point lead by Rasmussen to perhaps 1 point.
The specific internals of a particular poll are likely to be way off, just because of sampling error. But the overall pattern in the Gallup poll is suggestive. Here's another poll, from Investors Business Daily, in which Obama wins the national popular vote but Romney is still way ahead in the South. Average that with Gallup, and and you get a narrow Romney popular vote lead because of the lopsided Southern vote, so I think the story works pretty well.
Alexander Hudson
Most likely the national polls are just wrong. It's quite possible this has to do with simple statistical noise. Even when you combine all the national polls, I think the margin of error is still something like 2%. Obama's lead in the swing states is consistent with a national lead of about 2%. Given that the average of the national polls has fluctuated around a tied race, you could probably chalk up the difference to noise.
It might also be that there are a couple of pollsters that are slightly skewing the average to Romney. I'm thinking Gallup and Rasmussen. Both were very bad in 2010. Rasmussen has questionable methodology: they don't call cell phones, they weight by party ID, and when they conduct state polls they only do a single night of interviews. (The first and third save money but produces samples that may not be representative. The second assumes the outcome.) Gallup's methodology is fine, but their track record when they diverge from the consensus is very bad. Aside from those two, everyone else has the race in the range of +2 to -2 for each side.
But let's say, for the sake of argument, that the national polls really do show a slight Romney lead, thus suggesting a 3% split between the swing states and the popular vote. This wouldn't be the first time this has happened. In 1996, state-by-state polling suggested a much narrower margin of victory for Clinton. In 2000, state-by-state polling suggested a more-or-less tied national race, while national polling had Bush with a big advantage. In both cases, the state polls turned out to be correct. (Some thought Gore might win the EC despite losing the PV. How ironic.)
Because of this, Nate Silver has constructed his model to be very skeptical of a PV-EC split, and so he essentially splits the difference between the national polls and the state polls. As a result, his popular vote estimate is more bullish for Obama, while his state-level estimates are more bearish for him, compared to simple averaging.
If you want to know why Nate Silver's predictions are what they are why don't you read his posts? He explains his methodology pretty thoroughly on a regular basis. I guess it's easier just to accept Cedric's ridiculous explanation ("it's the librul media, duh") because it fits your partisan predisposition.
"Otherwise what to we do with the African-American vote?
You mean that, by my logic, the lopsidedness of the African-American vote would seem like an unfair advantage for the Democrats? It's not quite the same thing, though. If you divide the country by ethnic groups, you won't find that all except the African-Americans support Romney. If that were the case, and if ethnic groups were comparable in size, I would be a little uncomfortable that one ethnic group alone was able to elect Obama.
In general, I don't see why there's anything magic about a popular majority. Democracy isn't a perfect ideal; as Winston Churchill notes, it's not a good form of government at all in an absolute sense. Hopefully it avoids the worst problems associated with other forms of government. I think you might avoid more problems by structuring it not to give too much power to the most cohesive groups. The electoral college system rewards people for living in places where there are a lot of people who disagree with them. Isn't that a good thing?
Professor Sumner, I'm surprised to see you relying on a single private forecaster rather than a prediction market – http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474
Kevin Donoghue
Scott, I don't have a vote in US elections so I won't delve into this. But when I put together these two points from the link below, I have the feeling that they go a long way to answering your question:
1) "Gallup's seven-day tracking poll shows Mr. Obama winning the West (+6), the East (+4) and the Midwest (+4), while losing the South (-22), putting him behind in the popular vote, if not in the Electoral College."
2) "Wyoming has roughly 189,000 people per electoral vote. California has about 679,000."
http://takingnote.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/19/a-popularelectoral-split/
As Greg said, it's all about party ID. First of all Romney is winning independents by up to 8%. Second, state polls like Ohio generally sample about 5-6% more Democratic voters than Republican ones (See: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/331046/ohio-closer-you-think-josh-jordan). On the other hand, national polls like Gallup and Rasmussen sample about equal numbers of both. If equal numbers of democrats and republicans vote, than Romney wins both the popular vote and electoral vote. If Democrats have a 5% turnout edge then Obama wins both. If the edge is somewhere in the middle than it will be a long night. See: http://baseballcrank.com/archives2/2012/10/politics_why_i_2.php
Obama's popularity has dropped 7 points in popularity in 3 days .. Romney is surging in every swing state, esp with independents & women.
The incompent Obama is well below 50 % in popularity & in voter preference.
It's over — we have Carter vs Reagan all over again.
Sorry if you felt I was insulting your intelligence, but there was a 'Republicans have more safe states, Dems have more narrow states' idea coming through in your post that I thought needed addressing. And obviously my example is spurious but I was just illustrating my (clearly unnecessary) point.
Anyway, it's very difficult to know how big the discrepancy between state and national polls is, because safe states without competitive Senate races don't get polled much. If we had enough polls to get a good idea of where the race is in New York or Texas, we'd have a much better idea of the size of the state-national discrepancy, and the residual would then be the EC split.
You can come up with plausible stories as to why the Dems would have a significant EC advantage this time around. The coalition that gives Dems their strength in safe states like NY – urban service workers, educated professionals, young women, college kids – is conceivably discouraged by poor economic performance and confused by Romney's pivot to the centre. A fall in financial-sector support over Dodd-Frank is likely to cost Obama a disproportionate number of irrelevant Northeastern votes as well. The blue-collar workers who are on track to secure Obama Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa are more amenable to the Obama's campaign's focus on the success of oil bailouts and assertive foreign policy. So I don't think it's totally implausible that there is a large EC advantage for Obama.
However, I agree that a 3.3% tilt is implausible. The state polls are overestimating Obama, or the national polls are overestimating Romney. I'm leaning towards the former explanation, as is Silver – he points out that state polls have historically done better than national ones when they've diverged. Perhaps Romney's bounce helped to increase enthusiasm amongst safe-state Republicans, while months of ad bombardment had already worked to enthuse Ohio partisans, so there was less of an effect there. But equally it could be that all the polls of Ohio are skewing Democrat for some reason. And we're not likely to know which polls are wrong until election night.
I meant incumbent ….
Wake up folks — the electoral votes have moved South & West, except for California, which lost electorial votes for the first time ever.
Blue states continue to gain population & electorial votes, and Red state continue to lose them.
BTW Scott, several of Nate Silver's recent posts address the quesions you ask. See for example this, from 11th October (hence not topical but it relates to the problems you raise):
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/11/oct-10-is-romney-leading-right-now/
Kevin, Your argument cuts the wrong way.
Greg, Please tell me you aren't that delusional. I thought you were a big believer in science and facts and all that good stuff.
Basil, I do relay on Intrade, but that has nothing to do with this post.
Andy, If Obama wins the national vote then he'll blow Romney out of the water in the East and in California. And Churchill was wrong, democracy is far and away the best political system, nothing else comes close. The wisdom of crowds.
But the US Federal government is way too big–so that sort of fits with your argument. If we split into 50 countries, we might be better governed.
Steve, That's a fair criticism. (Except I'm certainly not a Republican.)
Alexander, Those are good points, although I'd note that Rasmussen was pretty close in 2008, and Gallup was way too much for Obama. So I still think there's a bit of a mystery. See my next post.
Pincher Martin, Excellent. Oddly I wrote an almost identical post before I read your comment.
Theo, Good points. That's a much better comment.
Albert, That sounds plausible.
Yellow Dog
Rasmussen is consistently more Republican than other pollsters.
If you go to the Real Clear Politics website and look at 2008 polls versus the actual outcome, Rasmussen consistently understated Obama's lead.
For example, he had the only poll showing McCain actually beating Obama in Florida.
Mike Sax
Scott I think Nate's 71% Obama advantage-it's now almost 75%- refers to the electoral college not the popular vote.
He does have Obama up by about 1.4% in the popular vote-his model factors in the state polls a lot in determing a popular vote prediction
It's certainly interesting that there is such a big gap between national and state polls.
There are a number of ways to explain it. One way is that the methodlogy of polls like Gallup are way off, particularly regarding their new likely voter poll.
In general I don;t think that national polls are very trusthworthy right now, least of all Gallup.
If you believe them Obama rose to a 54% job approval rating 3 days ago and is now at 46% There is so much volatility in it, to make it more or less worthless.
Gallup generally doesn't distinguish itself when it becomes an outlier.
On reason teh national polls may be wrong is that many of them undercount cell phone voters and Latinos-who break for Obama.
If you're for Romney your only hope is that somehow there is a systematic oversetimation of Obama's state numbers through all these different polling groups
It's possible but less likely than some of the national polls are askew.
Saturos
"Churchill was wrong, democracy is far and away the best political system, nothing else comes close. The wisdom of crowds."
I would have thought Scott knew enough public choice not to make that argument…
Major_Freedom
ssumner:
And Churchill was wrong, democracy is far and away the best political system, nothing else comes close. The wisdom of crowds.
Both Churchill and Sumner are wrong, democracy is not even close to being the best political system. The crowd, if history is a judge, is rarely if ever right. Democracy is a watered down version of communism. Nobody's property is safe. Nobody's person is safe. If the majority want to enslave a minority race, if the majority wants to confiscate the wealth of the minority, then democracy condones it.
True wisdom comes from individuals, not crowds. The best political system by light years is the individual private property order. Not only can it attenuate whatever wisdom exists in "the crowd", but it also protects the minority from the ignorance of "the crowd".
The main reason why democracy appears to be the best is because we don't have a single world democratic state. In each democratic country, the majority is constrained by the pseudo-anarchist world order, which prevents it from running total roughshod over the minority.
A world democratic state would be a nightmare. Former China and former India would have a very large size of vote, and they would almost certainly vote to redistribute wealth from the wealthy western former countries, to themselves. Would Sumner like it if half his wealth was voted away to some random people in the third world?
If any pro-democracy ideologue argues democracy works better at something less than 100% of the planet, then the same principle there is the same principle why democracy works better at something less than 50%, 40%, 30%, 20%, etc, all the way down to cities, neighborhoods, and finally… individual private property, the optimal.
Nobody truly believes in democracy because nobody believes that the majority has a legitimate right to murder the minority by vote.
Negation of Ideology
Speaking of the African-American vote:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/10/georgia-black-turnout-on-record-pace-147409.html
Obama is probably not going to win Georgia, but if record turnout of Afican-Americans is a national trend it could be a much larger Obama win than anyone is predicting.
Saturos, Which European country has been better governed than Switzerland over the past 100 years? Public choice theory (interpreted correctly) says real world "democracies" are nowhere near democratic enough.
Mike Sax, No, he has both percentages. I'm refering to his popular vote estimate.
Polling is art.
The logic of statistics is logic.
Figurings out what meaning polling data have isn't pure logic.
Ungrounded insults won't change what happens in November.
Minnesota is now in play ….
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2012/10/minnesota-now-in-play.php
Scott, I think it's more the local scale of the Swiss government, with lots of devolution, combatting the irrational voter problem. Is that what you mean by "more democracy"? Still, political choice has the wrong marginal incentives, and I think things should be done with markets whenever possible. (Also I'm a sucker for non-coercion.)
More than the low populations, there's the possibity of switching cantons (i.e. Tiebout competition).
So all the unnecessary "extra" functions can be devolved to the competitive parts, whilst the necessary order-keeping, communicating and cross-adjudicating functions only are kept ultimately at the Federal level. That's the way it should be done. I agree that Switzerland is a model for us all. Krugman likes Sweden; well, I guess Switzerland is my Sweden.
Saturos, Yes, democracy is local control. How could you claim the people rule if they don't have local control? It also means direct referenda. Switzerland had more national referenda during the 20th century than all the other countries of the world combined. That's why they have lower taxes than the other European countries. Who are you going to trust?
Greg, Yes, Minnesota is in play, and there really is a Santa Claus.
MF interjects: You know what's really local control? Everybody controlling themselves, and no one else.
And I have to say, I kind of agree…
What do you think is the optimal use of referenda in political decision making? Are you advocating Athenian democracy?
What do you think prevents the Swiss from voting for more redistribution? Appreciation of the negative incentive effects? (Though I doubt they are at the Saezian optimum yet.) And are they just more enlightened than everyone else when it comes to, eg. the costs of warmaking, the benefits of free trade, free markets?
Saturos, You are confusing procedures and outcomes. We might like to see a libertarian outcome, but that's a different question from what sort of procedure we use to choose governments.
It's makes no sense to say "I favor this political system because it's most likely to implement my preferred policy." Taken to the logical extreme, everyone should then want a system where they are dictator. But you don't get to choose who is the dictator, which is the whole point of democracy. A non-democratic government might end up with Saturos enacting local control, or it might end up with Mao doing the Great Leap Forward. I'd rather take my chances with Swiss-style democracy, which has done better than the vast majority of non-democratic countries.
No one will ever dissuade me from favoring democracy by saying "suppose the voters pick a bad policy." Yes, that could happen, but it's far more likely to happen under a non-democratic regime.
Saturos, The Swiss cantons each have their own income tax, determined by referenda. That's a good system.
"Taken to the logical extreme, everyone should then want a system where they are dictator."
Congratulations, you've just figured out why governments exist.
November.
And I though we were suppose to bow down before the headline numbers reported by journalists on the basis of the headline reports of polling firms.
I think Nate Silver is just following intrade.
Obama below 40% on whether country is headed in the right direction, no enthusiasm among marginal Obama supporters, popular vote at R 52% , O 47%.
That's the later Battleground Poll.
You can't argue with science.
Ohio — R 50, O 48 …
What's Silver going to 'predict' today?
So Seth MacFarlane is hosting the Oscars: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/29/movies/hollywood-seeks-to-slow-cultural-shift-to-tv.html
That's it, America is doomed.
"But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008."
Greg you understand Romney's chances of winning don't increase by you convincing us that he's supposedly already winning right?


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text:
NEW SILK STRATEGIES
News & Analysis.
Why Kim will not give up his nuclear program
Our translation below is from rueconomics.ru (Economics Today), with commentary by Vince Dhimos.
It is easy to understand Russia's interest in North Korea. The US position is the thorny one. Even though the US is willing to deal with China, another country with an economy that is not entirely market, the US position on North Korea is based on the fact that it refuses to be a US vassal and on the fact that the country is small and weak, and therefore easier to push around. Apologists of US foreign policy like to point out that the Soviet Union held Eastern Europe captive after the war and that this mistreatment fully justifies the fears of these nations that Russia might just take them over. The problem with this position is that in Soviet days, Russia did not come as an enemy causing death and destruction in the sense that the Germans did. The Germans completely bombed out the old city in Warsaw, for example. I witnessed the reconstruction efforts in the early 70s. They were building over the rubble, not just refurbishing damaged architecture. Germany came as an implacable enemy, killing vast numbers of especially Polish Jews. The Soviet Union held these territories as a buffer for fear that another Hitler could arise and invade again. The Soviets rebuilt over the ruins left by the Germans. And yet, incredibly, the Poles – like all the peoples of Eastern Europe – have long forgiven and forgotten the Holocaust and the atrocities of the Germans against the Poles, but still remember with resentment the Soviets who rebuilt their cities and gave them jobs, lifting them out of the economic crisis into which the Germans had plunged them.
Therefore, there is only one explanation for this double standard, and that is, US and NATO propaganda to keep alive the anti-Russian hostility that reigns in these nations. And that hostility has its origin in the fact that Russia refuses to treat the US as a superior. Ditto North Korea.
However, Russia seems to be counting on North Korea to eventually loosen up its command control of the economy and join the rest of the world, at which point Russia will be in a position to deal with it – a better position than the West enjoys. It looks like Putin has finally grasped that Kim Jong-un will never give up his nuclear program because in his view, it is the only thing standing between survival and another possible invasion of the kind that wound up killing a significant percentage of its population and destroying almost every settlement in his country in the 50s. It was not Russia or China that committed this near-genocide but the USA. If we can just keep that in mind, we can better understand Kim's position. But Westerners must first overcome years of conditioning to understand the more rational viewpoint of the East.
QUOTE FROM BELOW:
"North Korea sees nuclear weapons as the main and only guarantee of the security for the ruling class, and therefore Pyongyang will never give up developments in this area. Its goal is to achieve the Indian version of events. That is, the country creates nuclear weapons, the whole world secretly recognizes them as a nuclear power and continues to trade, with political contacts and equal dialogue."
"First we observed a rather long history of Kim's talks with US President Donald Trump, where each was playing his own game and actively saber-rattling. As a result, the dialogue failed."
BEGIN TRANSLATION
Putin's detailed conversation with Kim Jong-un was a signal to the West
25 April 2019 Vladivostok
https://rueconomics.ru/389527-obstoyatelnyi-razgovor-putina-s-kim-chen-ynom-stal-signalom-zapadu
It is not for nothing that Putin called the conversation with Kim Jong Un thorough, and both Moscow and Pyongyang achieved their goals in the first dialogue at the summit level. This opinion was expressed ed by Vasily Mikheev, chief researcher and head of the group of the IMEMO (Institute of World Economy and International Relations) at the Russian Academy of Sciences in a conversation with FBA Economics Today [rueconomics.ru].
"Initially, Kim Jong-un's visit to Russia did not promise practical results - it was a visit to determine negotiating positions. That is why the parties did not prepare joint projects and agreements for official signing - the goal was completely different. They didn't quite correctly identify one of the main topics of the talks - denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula although it is worth talking about the nuclear disarmament of North Korea, and here it must be said that this is an impossible task.
North Korea sees nuclear weapons as the main and only guarantee of the security for the ruling class, and therefore Pyongyang will never give up developments in this area. Its goal is to achieve the Indian version of events. That is, the country creates nuclear weapons, the whole world secretly recognizes them as a nuclear power and continues to trade and maintain political contacts and equal dialogue. Nobody encroaches on the state, as everyone is afraid of the bomb," the expert notes.
Negotiations between the delegations of Russia and North Korea (DPRK), led by their leaders Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un, were held on Russky Island in Vladivostok. The one-to-one dialogue between the two heads of state lasted more than two hours, and then there was an extended meeting. The Russian president spoke about the topics of conversation. "Of course, we also talked about the situation on the Korean Peninsula, exchanged views on how and what needs to be done to ensure that the situation has good prospects for improvement," Putin said.
"North Korea is a closed country, its economy is not a market economy, and the state has no money. Therefore, at a certain stage, Kim Jong-un began to bargain with world powers - first of all, over parts of its nuclear program, but without aiming at the complete disarmament of the state. Initially, we observed a rather extended history of Kim's talks with US President Donald Trump, where each was playing his own game and actively saber-rattling. As a result, the dialogue failed.
After that, Pyongyang tried to negotiate with South Korea, but that country is following the American policy, and therefore, there was no breakthrough. China pointedly and strictly adheres to UN sanctions against North Korea, so Kim's last year's dialogue with PRC leader Xi Jinping was fairly formal. Russia also complies with UN sanctions, but, nevertheless, Pyongyang is also trying to find support in Moscow for its actions. Putin's dialogue with Kim is important for both sides," the expert emphasizes.
"Korean game"
The Russian leader called the conversation with the head of the DPRK "quite thorough."
"We were able to talk about the history of our interstate relations, and about the present day, the prospects for the development of bilateral relations," said Vladimir Putin after the meeting with the North Korean leader. Kim Jong-un, in turn, expressed the hope that his dialogue with Putin, which had begun in a constructive manner, would continue in the same spirit.
Until April 2018, Kim had not only never left his country, but had not met with any other foreign head of state. Negotiations with Xi Jinping in Beijing were the first summit-level dialogue of his life. In Russia, the DPRK leader was met at the border station Hassan, and then in Vladivostok - just like his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, in 1948, and his father, Kim Jong Il in 2001. The visit of the third North Korean leader to the Russian Federation will last until Friday.
"North Korea seeks to show the world that Russia is becoming its serious partner. Moscow has nothing against such a position. It is equally important for the Russian side to demonstrate that we remain in the global game that has been going on around the Korean Peninsula for more than half a century. Therefore, Putin's meeting with Kim was mostly declarative - there simply could be no serious decisions at the first stage of the dialogue.
On the other hand, Moscow is not hiding its economic interests in rapprochement with Pyongyang. It has been stated more than once that the Russian Federation is interested in building a gas pipeline that will run from Russia through the North to the South of Korea. Of no less interest is the project of connecting the Korean railways with the Russian railways for organizing large freight shipments from South Korea to Europe. In both cases, North Korea appears rather as a transit country, but these initiatives will benefit everyone.
You can assess these initiatives as a look into the future in the long term. In the near future these projects will hardly be able to be realized - two factors interfere. First of all, North Korea needs to become an open market economy in order to be able to fully work with it without the existing risks. Secondly, Pyongyang still needs to solve the country's security problems, and taking into account the positions of the West, this is unlikely to happen soon, "concludes Vasily Mikheev.
END TRANSLATION


The Mayor of London Boris Johnson has outlined final plans for "Crossrail for the Bike", which would see two continuous cycle routes, almost completely separated from traffic, cross central London from east to west and north to south.
If TfL approves the plans then construction of the routes will start in March.
Mr Johnson said: "We have done one of the biggest consultation exercises in TfL's history. We have listened, and now we will act. Overwhelmingly, Londoners wanted these routes, and wanted them delivered to the high standard we promised. I intend to keep that promise.


Today, let us dedicate this day to taking greater personal responsibility, for the judgmental thoughts, that we are thinking about and housing within. After all is said and done, it is only we, who can allow a thought to be housed within us. It is the thoughts that we house within us, that end up painting the picture of the world we see. If you do not like the picture of the world that you are seeing, today choose to no longer blame the world for this, instead go within, and begin to challenge and change the thoughts that are coloring your world. Today, let us notice that the more we feed a thought with our time, focus and energy, the bigger part of our life it becomes. Equally so, that same exact thought, can be starved by us, by taking our time, focus and energy, away from it.
Today, let us no longer allow judgmental thoughts, to go unchallenged. Today, when judgmental thoughts comes knocking at our mind's door, let us recall what investing our time, focus and energy on them, has brought to us, nothing but conflict, inner confusion, pain, anger, chaos, resentment and regret. Then, let us recall, that we are all on perfect, individualized and sacred path that have co-created with God. Because of this co-creation, when we are judging others or ourselves, we are judging God. We will never attain true peace of mind and joy, as long as we are unconsciously judging God. Today, when a judgmental thought tries to enter our mind's gate, we stop it, decline its entrance, forgive it, place it in God's hands, let it go, and return to becoming an example, of the state of peace.


text:
Хью То́мпсон (, 1860—1920) — художник-иллюстратор из Ольстера. Считается (наряду с Артуром Рэкхэмом и Эдмундом Дюлаком) одним из трёх лучших иллюстраторов книг эдвардианского стиля.

Биография

Был самоучкой, не получил почти никакого специального образования.

В отрочестве работал посыльным в компании торговцев тканями «Гиббонс и Сыновья».

В 14 лет в Белфасте попал в ученики в типографию небольшого издательства «Marcus Ward & Co», производящего календари и , — и там впервые начал рисовать с одобрения и при поддержке владельца фирмы.

Художник-иллюстратор Джон Виникомб () помог Томпсону развить его талант, особенностями которого были — внимание к мелочам, умение использовать различные изобразительные средства, уникальные способности схватывать характеры людей, детали интерьера и окружающего мира.

Помимо прочего, мастерски овладел техникой акварели.

В 1884 году женился на Джесси Нейсмит Миллер () и перебрался в Лондон, где поступил на работу в издательство «Макмиллан и К°». Иллюстровал серии исторических книг, сельскохозяйственные брошюры, английские пособия по коучингу.

Сотрудничал с журналом «The English Illustrated Magazine».

Иллюстрировал произведения многих писателей викторианской эпохи, среди которых: Чарльз Диккенс, Оливер Голдсмит, Элизабет Гаскелл, Р. Б. Шеридан, , Джордж Элиот, Уильям Теккерей.

В 1894—1898 годах он иллюстрирует пять романов Джейн Остин: «Гордость и предубеждение», «Мэнсфилд-парк», «Доводы рассудка», «Эмма», «Чувство и чувствительность».

Моделью иллюстраций к двум последним романам Остин была вторая жена художника, — Кэтрин.

Томпсон скончался от болезни сердца в своём доме, 8 Паттен-роуд, Wandsworth Common, 7 мая 1920 года.

Творческое наследие художника продолжило активно жить, в частности, благодаря его иллюстрациям к популярной комедии из английской жизни XIX века. Джеймса Барри «Кволити-стрит» («Достойная улица», , 1901), долгие годы украшавшими коробки с шоколадными конфетами — «Quality Street».

Галерея

Издания
 Шекспир, Уильям. Как вам это понравится. СПб.: Белый город, 2010. — 264 с. — Тираж: 2000 экз. (Серия: «Книжная классика») — ISBN 978-5-7793-1805-1
 Остин, Джейн (Austen, Jane). The Complete Novels. — Eastleach: CRW Publishing Ltd., 2007. — 720 р. — ISBN 978-1-905716-32-6 [подарочное издание]

Примечания

Ссылки
 Hugh Thomson, Illustrator (1860—1920) — мемориальная доска, установленная «Ulster History Circle» на доме, где художник родился: 9 Kingsgate Street, Coleraine, Co Antrim
 Хью Томсон, иллюстратор Джейн Остин ()
 Leonsija. Старая английская жизнь в иллюстрациях Хью Томсона
 Из комедии «Достойная улица»

Художники-иллюстраторы Великобритании
Уильям Теккерей
Джейн Остин

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


an article in The Times in the late 19th century, it was thus possible to "break the bank" several times. 3 Seaside facade before 1878 During this initial period the casino had been moved several times, until it finally ended up in the area called Les Spelugues (English: The Caves). For the casino in Las Vegas formerly known as maria casino free slots the Monte Carlo Resort and Casino, see. Grand Théâtre de Monte Carlo, and the office of, les Ballets de Monte Carlo. Grand Hotels: Reality and Illusion. Revenues from the proposed venture were supposed to save the. 8 In 189899 the Salle Garnier was remodeled by architect Henri Schmit, primarily in the stage area, so that it would be more suitable for opera and ballet performances. Blanc used his connections to quickly raise the required capital, and began the massive construction. Contents, history edit, the idea of opening a gambling casino in Monaco belongs to, princess Caroline, 2 a shrewd, business-minded spouse. Retrieved December 1, 2013. "Chronology of Gambling (1852-1900. It includes a casino, the. Sources Bonillo, Jean-Lucien,. The lack of roads needed to connect Monaco to Nice and the rest of Europe, and the absence of comfortable accommodations for visitors, as well as the concessionaires' failure to publicize the new resort, resulted in far fewer customers than was originally anticipated. It comprises 2 palaces and 2 deluxe hotels, 4 casinos, 60 conference and banqueting rooms, 33 bars and restaurants, 3 spas including Les Thermes Marins de Monte Carlo, as well as cultural and leisure venues including the Opera, the Salle des Etoiles, the Jimmyz night. 5 Although the casino began to make a profit in 1859, Daval was not up to the task. Monte Carlo Société des Bains de Mer operates the, principality of Monacos most distinctive assets. Retrieved 10 November 2012. Until recently, the Casino de Monte-Carlo has been the primary source of income for the House of Grimaldi and the Monaco economy. Among the prominent investors were Charles-Bonaventure-François Theuret, Bishop of Monaco, and Cardinal Pecci, the future Pope Leo xiii. 7 Despite all of the later additions and modifications, the casino still has a distinctly Beaux Arts style. It had finally opened in 1875.
Construction at la fiesta casino flashback this site began on to designs of the Parisian architect Gobineau de la Bretonnerie 4 and was completed in 1863. Folli, the Dream of Reason in English and French. Casino Royale 1953, the architecture of glamorous Belle Époque building of the Casino de MonteCarlo was used by Ian Fleming to describe a casino in" Aubert and Langlois opened the first casino at 14 December 1856 in Villa Bellevu.
Sarup Sons, menton and, the company also owns the principal hotels. CookieRichtlinie, however, s original facade and the interior design of the auditorium itself remain intact. New Delhi, sports clubs, monaco and its casino were the locations for a number of James Bond movies. Including ohne Never Say Never Again and GoldenEye 1, the 1892 song" monte Carlo Casino, was probably inspired by the exploits of Charles Wells. Is often associated with the Casino de MonteCarlo. In the late 1850s, eyneaud to Germany, a fictional British spy. Folli Merello 2004, s persistent financial problems became especially acute after the loss of tax revenue from casino two breakaway towns. Broke the ban" the ruling familyapos, the. The book describes how the management of Monte Carlo responded to the success of the team. S Climax, is a gambling and entertainment complex located.
A few suggestions were considered, and the name Monte Carlo was chosen in Prince Charles ' honor.The alterations to the Casino de Monte Carlo included the addition of a concert hall (designed by Garnier and later named the Salle Garnier located on the side of the casino facing the sea, and the redesign and expansion of the gaming rooms and public.The casino served as a filming location for the 2004 film Ocean's Twelve.
Wir verwenden Cookies, um Inhalte zu personalisieren, Werbeanzeigen maßzuschneidern und zu messen sowie die Sicherheit unserer Nutzer zu erhöhen.Finally, in 1863 François Blanc agreed to take over Monaco's casino business.Princess Caroline even appealed to Madame Blanc, whom she befriended during her first visit to Bad Homburg, with a suggestion that Monaco's mild climate would be good for Madame Blanc's ill health.


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text:
Title: New York City Department of Education
Subject: Education in New York City, The Anderson School, Government of New York City, Harvey Milk High School, Brooklyn Technical High School
Collection: 2002 Establishments in New York, Government Agencies Established in 2002, New York City Department of Education, Public Education in New York City, School Districts in New York
Department of Education of the City of New York
Department executive
Carmen Fariña, New York City Schools Chancellor
Key document
/doe.gov.nycwww
City School District of the City of New York
Carmen Fariña
US$24 billion[1]
Teachers' unions
United Federation of Teachers
New York State United Teachers
American Federation of Teachers
.gov.nycschools
The New York City Department of Education (NYCDOE) is the department of the government of New York City that manages the city's public school system. The City School District of the City of New York (the New York City public schools) is the largest school system in the United States, with over 1.1 million students taught in more than 1,800 separate schools.[1] The department covers all five boroughs of New York City, and has an annual budget of nearly 25 billion dollars.[2]
The department is run by the Panel for Educational Policy and New York City Schools Chancellor. The current chancellor is Carmen Fariña.
Health and nutrition 2
Radio and television stations 7
Panel for Educational Policy 8.1
Community Education Councils 8.2
Analysis and criticism 9
Further reading 13
Beginning in 2003, New York City public schools citywide implemented a mathematics "core curriculum" based on New York State standards for grades K-12. To graduate high school, students must earn at least six credits in mathematics. In order to receive a Regents diploma, students must score at least 65 on a Regents math exam.[3]
The city has made an effort to reduce childhood obesity among students by promoting exercise and improving nutrition in school cafeterias.
During Mayor Bloomberg's first term, white bread was entirely replaced with whole wheat bread, hot dog buns, and hamburger buns in cafeterias. In 2006, the city set out to eliminate whole milk from cafeteria lunch menus and took the further step of banning low-fat flavored milks, allowing only skim milk (white and chocolate). The New York City school system purchases more milk than any other in the United States; although the dairy industry aggressively lobbied against the new plan they ultimately failed to prevent its implementation.
In October 2009, the DOE banned bake sales, though some schools continue to have them with frequency.[4] The DOE cited the high sugar content of baked sale goods and that 40% of NYC students are obese. Meanwhile, vending machines in the schools operated by Frito Lay and Snapple continue to sell high processed empty calorie foods such as Doritos and Juices. Contracts for the vending machines were awarded in no-bid deals through Mayor Bloomberg's office.[5] As part of the DOE's ambition to create healthy diets among students, as of October, Frito Lay will have to put Reduced Fat Doritos in machines.[4] The DOE considers Reduced Fat Doritos, which contain corn dextrin, corn maltodextrin, monosodium glutamate (MSG), disodium phosphate, artificial flavor, dextrose, artificial color, disodium inosinate and disodium guanylate, a healthy snack based on its June 2009 request for healthy snack vending machine proposals.[6][7] The NYC school lunch menu contains numerous highly processed foods and high sugar content foods including chicken nuggets, French fries, French toast and syrup.[8] NYC also continues to fail to meet the mandatory physical education requirements of NY State,[9] and NYC DOE has failed to maintain or improve playgrounds instead turning them into ad-hoc additional classroom space or parking lots.[10]
In January 2011, more than 1,100 New York City students from 13 schools were offered morning-after pill and other birth control pill (Reclipsen). The pilot program is called Connecting Adolescents to Comprehensive Health and is facing criticism.[11][12]
Beginning in 2000, after experiments with hiring uncertified teachers to fulfill a massive teacher shortage failed to produce acceptable results, and responding to pressure from the New York State Board of Regents and the No Child Left Behind Act, the DOE instituted a number of innovative programs for teacher recruitment, including the New York City Teaching Fellows,[13] the TOP Scholars Program, and initiatives to bring foreign teachers (primarily from Eastern Europe) to teach in the city's schools. Housing subsidies are in place for experienced teachers who relocate to the city to teach.[14]
In the course of school reorganizations, some veteran teachers have lost their positions. They then enter a pool of substitutes, called the Absent Teacher Reserve. On November 19, 2008, the Department and the city's teacher union (the United Federation of Teachers), reached an agreement to create financial incentives for principals of new schools to hire ATR teachers and guidance counselors.[15]
The Department of Education has an annual budget of nearly $25 billion for its 1.1 million students.[2][16] According to Census Data, New York spends $19,076 each year per student,[17] more than any other state[18] compared to the national average of $10,560.
3 billion dollars of the budget goes to Non City schools. This includes $1.09 billion to pre-school special education services and $725.3 million for School-Age non DOE contract special education. Another $71 million goes to non public schools such as yeshivas and parochial schools and $1.04 billion is paid for the 70 thousand students[19] attending charter schools.[2]
4.6 billion of the budget pays for pensions and interest on Capital Plan debt.[2]
Bayard Rustin Educational Complex, formerly Bayard Rustin High School, now hosts 6 small schools
John Dewey High School's 13 acre campus, Dewey is the only public school in New York City to have a 13-acre campus. A bronze statue is also situated on the campus titled "The Key to Knowledge" symbolizing progressive education.
About 1.1 million students attend New York City public schools.
About 40% of students in the city's public school system live in households where a language other than English is spoken, and one-third of all New Yorkers were born in another country. The city's Department of Education translates report cards, registration forms, system-wide alerts, and documents on health and policy initiatives for parents into Spanish, French, German, Chinese, Japanese, Urdu, Persian, Hindi, Russian, Bengali, Haitian Creole, Korean, and Arabic.
In the 2010-2011, Hispanics and Latino students made up 39.9% of the student population. African Americans made up 30.3% of the student population, Non-Hispanic Whites made up 14.3% and Asian American students made up 15.0% of the student populace. Native Americans made up the remaining 0.5% of the student body.[20]
The specialized high schools tend to be disproportionately Asian. New York's Specialized High School Institute is an after-school program for students in late middle school.[21] It was designed to enlarge the pool of African American and Hispanic candidates eligible for admission to the selective schools by giving them extra lessons and teaching test-taking skills.[22] Unlike other urban school districts (such as San Francisco Unified School District), New York does not use racial preferences (affirmative action) in public school admissions.
In a May 11, 2012 report, The New York Times reported that New York City has the third most segregated large city school system, after Chicago and Dallas. Hispanic students are concentrated in Washington Heights and Corona. Asian students dominate in Chinatown. The Times reported that the greatest segregation is in black neighborhoods. It further noted that black isolation in schools has persisted even as residential segregation has declined.[23]
Many school buildings are architecturally noteworthy, in part due to the efforts of C. B. J. Snyder.
The Department has closed many failing elementary, middle (intermediate) and high schools. The buildings of some of the larger schools have been turned into "Campuses" or "Complexes" in which a number of smaller school entities, educationally independent of each other, co-exist within the building.
The Board operated radio station Downtown Brooklyn. The broadcast licenses of both stations were transferred to the Department of Information Technology and Telecommunications in 2004.[24]
Although the 2002 reform legislation[25] made no specific reference to a "Department of Education", the bylaws subsequently adopted by the New York City Board of Education provided that the board "shall be known as the Panel for Educational Policy", which together with the Chancellor and other school employees was designated as the "Department of Education of the City of New York".[26]
The Panel for Educational Policy has authority to approve school closings.[27] A majority of its membership is appointed by the Mayor.[27]
Community Education Councils
There are 32 councils, with 11 members on each, 2 appointed by Borough Presidents and 9[28] selected by PTA leaders who are advised by parents[29] who live in the council districts, the local parents acting[28] through an election process conducted online and overseen by the Department of Education.[29] The 2009 election cost $650,000 to conduct and another election was held in 2011.[29]
According to Beth Fertig, Community Education Councils are "supposed to provide an avenue for parent engagement."[29] According to Tim Kremer, head of the New York State School Boards Association, "although education councils don't have a lot of power they can play a vital role in vetting budgets and giving feedback on instructional policies."[29] Councils have some veto power.[28] The councils were created in 2002 and their authority was increased "a little" in 2009,[29] but, according to Fertig, "many parents still claim the councils don't matter because decisions are ultimately controlled by the mayor."[29] According to Soni Sangha, the councils are mainly obscure and unknown to many parents, their forums are not well-attended, and they meet with the citywide schools chancellor.[28]
Analysis and criticism
New York is one of ten major U.S. cities in which the educational system is under the control of the mayor rather than an elected school board.[30]
More recently, Mayor Bill DiBlasio has received major criticism over his decision to accept proposals by charter schools to co-locate with public schools, specifically Seth Low IS and Cavallaro IS. Many people expressed shock and disappointment at the decision, claiming that co-location leads to congestion of school streets, overcrowded classrooms, strained resources, and a negative impact on children's education.[31]
As of 2008 the former Tweed Courthouse serves as the DOE headquarters
110 Livingston Street previously served as the DOE headquarters, and for the Board of Education before it
Beginning in the late 1960s, schools were grouped into districts. Elementary schools and middle schools were grouped into 32 community school districts, and high schools were grouped into five geographically larger districts: One each for Manhattan, the Bronx, and Queens, one for most of Brooklyn, and one, BASIS, for the rest of Brooklyn and all of Staten Island. In addition there were several special districts for alternative schools and schools serving severely disabled students.[32] While the districts no longer exist, the former district of a school is often used as an identifier.
In 1969, on the heels of a series of strikes and demands for community control, Board of Education (made up of seven members appointed by borough presidents and the mayor) and 32 community school boards (whose members were elected). Elementary and middle schools were controlled by the community boards, while high schools were controlled by the Board of Education.[33]
In 2002, the city's school system was reorganized by chapter 91 of the Borough Presidents.[34] Although that legislation itself made no specific reference to a "Department of Education of the City of New York", the bylaws subsequently adopted by the Board provided that the 13-member body "shall be known as the Panel for Educational Policy", which together with the Chancellor and other school employees was designated as the "Department of Education of the City of New York".[26] The education headquarters were moved from 110 Livingston Street in downtown Brooklyn to the Tweed Courthouse building adjacent to New York City Hall in Manhattan.[33][35]
In 2003, the districts were grouped into ten regions, each encompassing several elementary and middle school districts, and part of a high school district.[32] In 2005, several schools joined the Autonomous Zone (later Empowerment Zone) and were allowed to use part of their budgets to directly purchase support services. These schools were released from their regions. In 2007, Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Chancellor Joel I. Klein announced the dissolution of the regions effective June 2007, and schools became organized into one of the following School Support Organizations:[36]
Due to an ongoing power struggle between the Democratic and Republican parties, state senators failed to renew mayoral control of the city's school system by 12:00 a.m. EDT on July 1, 2009, immediately ceding control back to the pre-2002 Board of Education system. Mayor Bloomberg announced summer school sessions would be held without interruption while city attorneys oversaw the transition of power.[37] On August 6, 2009, the state senate ratified the bill returning control of the schools back to the mayor for another six years with few changes from the 2002-2009 mayoral control structure.[38]
110 Livingston Street, former BOE headquarters in Brooklyn
Council of School Supervisors & Administrators
Insideschools.org
List of high schools in New York City
List of public elementary schools in New York City
New York City School Construction Authority
Public Schools Athletic League
Specialized high schools in New York City
Tweed Courthouse
University of the State of New York
Waiting for "Superman"
^ a b c d e "New York City Department of Education - About Us". NYC Department of Education. 2012. Retrieved February 23, 2012.
^ a b c d New York City, Department of Education. "What Is in the Overall Budget?". NYCDE. NYCDE. Retrieved March 6.
^ New York City Department of Education website, visited 9 April 2012, "Mathematics," http://schools.nyc.gov/Academics/Mathematics/default.htm
^ a b Medina, Jennifer (October 3, 2009). "A Crackdown on Bake Sales in City Schools". The New York Times. Retrieved May 20, 2010.
^ "Why Joel Klein Should Be Fired". Huffington Post. May 25, 2011.
^ "DiNapoli: Junk Food Sold in NYC Schools Weakens Efforts to Promote Healthy Eating, 6/10/09". Osc.state.ny.us. 2009-06-10. Retrieved 2012-08-14.
^ "DORITOS® Reduced Fat Nacho Cheese Flavored Tortilla Chips". Smart Snacking Products by Frito-Lay: Fun Snacks and Party Snacks.
^ "Nutritional Content Information Provided by the Individual Manufacturers." (PDF). Office of SchoolFood Product Nutritional Information. Retrieved 2014-05-30.
^ Hamacher, Brian (May 5, 2008). "Schools Fail Pe Requirements". New York Post.
^ "No Room in the Playground - A Report Examining Playground Space in NYC Elementary Schools". Assembly.state.ny.us. Retrieved 2012-08-14.
^ "New York schools offer 'morning after' pill to students". CNN. Retrieved September 24, 2012.
^ "Morning-after pills made available to N.Y. high school students". Reuters. Retrieved September 24, 2012.
^ Goodnough, Abby (August 23, 2002). "Shortage Ends As City Lures New Teachers". The New York Times.
^ Herszenhorn, David M. (April 19, 2006). "New York Offers Housing Subsidy as Teacher Lure". The New York Times.
^ UFT and DOE reach agreement on ATRs - United Federation of Teachers
^ New York City, Department of Education. "Breaking down our $19.2 billion operating budget" (PDF). NYCDOE. NYCDOE. Retrieved March 6, 2014.
^ Klein, Rebecca (2013-05-23). "New York Per-Student Spending Higher Than Anywhere Else In U.S., Census Bureau Finds". Huffington Post. Retrieved 2014-03-06.
^ BANCHERO, STEPHANIE (2013-05-21). "Public Spending Per Student Drops". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 2014-03-06.
^ New York City Charter School Center, as accessed October 2, 2013.
^ http://nces.ed.gov/ccd/elsi/expressTables.aspx. Retrieved 2013-09-01.
^ "Specialized High Schools Institute". New York City Department of Education. March 11, 2009. Retrieved May 2, 2009.
^ Gootman, Elissa (August 18, 2006). "In Elite N.Y. Schools, a Dip in Blacks and Hispanics - New York Times". The New York Times. Retrieved May 2, 2009.
^ Ford Fessenden, "A Portrait of Segregation in New York City's Schools" The New York Times, May 11, 2012 http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/05/11/nyregion/segregation-in-new-york-city-public-schools.html?ref=education
^ "About NYC Media". NYC Media (
^ Chapter 91 of the Laws of 2002
^ a b Nacipucha v. City of New York , 18 Misc 3d 846, 850 (Sup Ct, Bronx County 2008).
^ a b Phillips, Anna M., 12 With Low State Test Scores Are Put on School Closing List, in The New York Times (Late ed. (East Coast)), December 9, 2011, last updated January 5, 2012, p. A.29, in New York Times (1980 - current) (ProQuest (database)), as accessed March 23, 2013 (subscription may be required).
^ a b c d Sangha, Soni, School Rezoning's Border Wars, in The New York Times (Late ed. (East Coast)), November 25, 2012, last updated December 7, 2012, p. MB1, in New York Times (1980 - current) (ProQuest) (database), as accessed March 23, 2013 (subscription may be required).
^ a b c d e f g , on WNYC, May 6, 2011Parents Claim City Bungled Community Education Council ElectionsFertig, Beth, , as accessed March 23, 2013.
^ Favro, Tony. "US mayors are divided about merits of controlling schools". citymayors.com. Retrieved 2011-09-12.
^ "De Blasio's approval of Bensonhurst charter schools angers pols, parents | Brooklyn Daily Eagle". www.brooklyneagle.com. Retrieved 2015-10-03.
^ a b Yet Another Reorganization of New York City's Public Schools - Center for New York Affairs
^ a b Hartocollis, Anemona (June 7, 2002). "CONSENSUS ON CITY SCHOOLS: HISTORY; Growing Outrage Leads Back to Centralized Leadership". The New York Times.
^ Goodnough, Abby (2002-09-24), "A New Sort of School Board, Bland and Calm", New York Times, retrieved 2011-09-12
^ "The great experiment".
^ "School Support Organizations". New York City Department of Education. Retrieved August 13, 2009.
^ "NY Senate Confusion Continues". MyFoxNY.com. June 30, 2009. Retrieved July 1, 2009.
^ Medina, Jennifer (August 7, 2009). "N.Y. Senate Renews Mayor's Power to Run Schools". New York Times. Retrieved August 7, 2010.
Carolan, Brian V. Institutional Pressures and Isomorphic Change. The Case of New York City's Department of Education. (academic journal article, see entry in ERIC) Education and Urban Society (ISSN 0013-1245). 2008, Volume 40, Issue 428. Originally published online on 23 October 2007. DOI: 10.1605/01.301-0006567006.2009. Pages 428-451.
(Japanese) Hanawa, Takeo (塙 武郎 Hanawa Takeo) "The Fiscal Structure and Features of Public Elementary and Secondary Education of the City of New York(American model of Welfare State)." (ニューヨーク市初等中等教育の財政構造と特質(アメリカ・モデルの福祉国家) ; Archive) Journal of Social Science (社會科學研究). University of Tokyo. March 2008. Volume 59, Issue 5/6. p. 163-184.
English abstract and information about the Hanawa journal article (Archive) - Japanese information page (Archive)
Hetherman, Stephen Crowe. An application of multi-faceted Rasch measurement to monitor effectiveness of the written composition in English in the New York City Department of Education (dissertation). Columbia University Teachers College, ProQuest, UMI Dissertations Publishing, May 17, 2004. UMI Number 3135342.
Howell, Fanon John (New School University). Accountable Choice: Governance, Evaluation, and Culture in the New York City Department of Education (dissertation). ProQuest, UMI Dissertations Publishing, August 2010 (ProQuest publishing date: 2011). UMI Number: 3458102.
Iatarola, Patrice (Florida State University) and Amy Ellen Schwartz, Leanna Stieffel, and Colin C. Chellman (New York University). "Small Schools, Large Districts: Small-School Reform and New York City's Students" (Archive). Teachers College Record. Teachers College, Columbia University, September 2008. Volume 110, Number 9, pp. 1837–1878. ISSN 0161-4681.
NYCDOE Office of School Support Services
New York City Board of Education/New York City Department of Education (Archive)
Archives in 1998
NYCDOE school zoning information
NYC School Zones: alternative zoning information website
New York School Boycott, Civil Rights Digital Library
Empowerment Schools
Borough Presidents
Independent organs
Courts of Law
Citywide Administrative Services
Health & Mental Hygiene
Housing Preservation & Development
Information Technology & Telecommunications
Records & Information Services
Youth & Community Development
Office of Chief Medical Examiner
Health & Hospitals Corporation
Landmarks Preservation Commission
Lower Manhattan Development Corporation
Mayor's Office of Film, Theatre & Broadcasting
NYC Media Group
Taxi & Limousine Commission
Queens Library
The Bronx (Bronx County)
Brooklyn (Kings County):
Manhattan (New York County)
Queens (Queens County)
Staten Island (Richmond County)
Ethnic enclaves
Dept. of Education
State of New York
Pages with citations having bare URLs
Articles with dead external links from January 2013
School districts in New York
Public education in New York City
Government agencies established in 2002
2002 establishments in New York
Long Island, Queens, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Staten Island
New York City, New York City Council, Manhattan, New York City Charter, Queens
The Anderson School
Oclc, New York City, New York City Department of Education, Gifted education, Virginia Woolf
Brooklyn Technical High School
Math, Robotics, JavaScript, Music, Computer Science


The Teme Valley Brewery opened in 1997 to brew for The Talbot in Knightwick, Worcestershire.
All the hops used in these beers are grown in Worcestershire, Herefordshire or Shropshire and all the barley used to make the malt is grown in the UK.
2 x Talbot Blonde (4.4%, 500ml) A smooth, rich pale beer well hopped with Worcestershire Northdown hops. Introduced in December 2005 as a seasonal beer, but now available year round due to popular demand.
3 x This (3.7%) All the easy drinking virtues of a light ale. Brewed with Worcestershire Challenger and Goldings hops to give a vivid hop aroma and a subtle bitterness. Perfect with a light lunch – a ploughman's or a sandwich.
3 x That (4.1%) A chestnut coloured best bitter brewed with crystal malt to give a robust malt flavour. Challenger and Sovereign hops give a potent bitterness to balance any sweetness. A perfect partner to stews or meals with a rich gravy.
2 x Wotever Next (5.0%) A strong, dark and bitter beer. The distinctive dry finish derives from chocolate malt, Pilgrim and Cascade hops. A long fermentation leaves little sweetness behind. A good counter balance to a sticky dessert.
2 x Hop Nouvelle (4.1%) An exceptionally pale beer brewed with un-kilned fresh First Gold hops from local Ankerdine Farm.


text:
Q: Odd JavaScript getElementsByName undefined error Okay, I've seriously got to be missing something or I'm crazy. Here's the code I'm having an issue with, it is inside an onchange event:
console.log( (this.parentNode.parentNode) );
// fine prints the elements

console.log( (this.parentNode.parentNode).getElementsByName('otherposition[]') );
// gives me undefined error

(this.parentNode.parentNode).getElementsByName('otherposition[]')[0].style.opacity = '1';
// same error.

A: getElementsByName is a method of document, elements doesn't have such method.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Welcome to the Oak Knoll website, home of Oak Knoll Press, publisher, and Oak Knoll Books, rare and out-of print bookseller. Our database contains the world's largest inventory of books about books and bibliography. Please sign in for advanced features. We want to hear from you, so please email any questions or comments!
Now on press and available for advance order!
This important new work by noted bibliographer Walter E. Smith traces the history of Charles Dickens's Christmas books and selected secondary works published in America during his lifetime. Meticulously researched and presented, it includes data never before published. Each entry contains photographs of bindings and title pages, notes, related quotes or contemporary commentary, and dates of publication. This study was compiled from firsthand examinations of the books at major libraries and institutions throughout the country, in private collections, and in the possession of several rare book dealers. It should prove to be an indispensable source of information for libraries, collectors, dealers, and scholars.
Ships in late March. To see the full listing, click HERE.
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Schedule of upcoming book fairs!
New from the Center for Book Arts: "Freud on the Couch: Psyche in the Book"
New from the Clements Library: "Pioneer Americanists"
New from the University of Pennsylvania: "The Bibliophile as Bookbinder: the Angling Bindings of S.A. Neff, Jr."
more infoabout A DIRECTORY OF DELAWARE PHOTOGRAPHERS, 1839-1900 AND BEYOND.
Oldham, England: Incline Press, 2018.
more infoabout AN ELEGY FOR X.


text:
DOH Confirms 3rd Case of Omicron Variant in PH
December 20, 2021 by Olive Dutch
DOH Speaks on Omicron Cases in PH
DOH – The Department of Health confirmed the 3rd case of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 in the Philippines.
Countries now are monitoring the Omicron variant, a "heavily mutated" variant of COVID-19 that was first recorded in South Africa. The experts are currently observing the behavior of the said variant of concern.
Previously, the World Health Organization (WHO) warned nations to boost the measures to prevent the entry and spread of the variant of concern. It may be more transmissible compared to the other variants of the virus previously identified.
Travel bans on some countries that confirmed cases of the Omicron variant are currently up in several nations. At least 17 countries confirmed cases of the variant of concern.
Photo lifted from Business Mirror
The Philippines is one of those countries that confirmed cases of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. The first two (2) patients of the said variant in the country are a returning Filipino from Japan and a Nigerian man.
The Department of Health (DOH) previously assured that both patients were immediately isolated and those who have close contact with them were traced and tested for COVID-19.
According to the Health Department, all seven (7) close contacts of the Omicron patient in PH tested negative for COVID-19. Recently, another case of Omicron was detected in the country.
Based on a report on ABS-CBN News, DOH confirmed the 3rd case of Omicron variant in the Philippines. The patient is a returning Filipino from Qatar who has travelled to Egypt.
According to Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire, the patient is a 36-year-old man who arrived at the Mactan-Cebu International Airport via Qatar Airways last November 28. He is asymptomatic since his arrival in the country.
The sample of the patient was collected last December 4 and it yielded results on the next day. Last December 19, the patient tested again and his result was negative.
Vergeire said that the patient has completed his isolation in Cebu before he travelled back to Cavite. He underwent home quarantine upon arrival in his hometown.
You may also visit – World Health Says Omicron may be Milder than Delta
Categories News Tags Department of Health, DOH, Omicron Philippines, Omicron Variant COVID-19
Brenda Mage Reveals Most Expensive Gift he Gave to his Boyfriend
NGCP: Landowner Blocks Restoration Efforts In Negros Occidental


echae began as a place to show my portfolio online and aid my job search in London. However, it has grown into a place to share information to friends, family and colleagues who might find interest in the content included on the site.
Regular updates will follow, particularly in the play section, and we hope that you will check back often. If you have any question, comments, thoughts or requests, please feel free to .
In a perfect world we would all use up-to-date, standards-compliant browsers to get the most out of our web surfing experience.
Unfortunately, we live in a Microsoft-dominated Bizarro world where to the road to success is paved with 'embrace, extend, extinguish' and technical illiteracy is considered a endearing character trait. But here at echae we're not the type to complain about the things we can't change, so we just grin and bear it. You can come along for the ride if you want.
and, last but not least, Safari.
And for those of you who didn't realise there were so many different ways to explore the web: Wake up! You don't have to be a Microsoft shill. Homogeneity is not the goal of progress. Choice is good, so make a good choice.


Imperial welcomed Councillor Ben Coleman, Cabinet Member for Health and Adult Social Care at Hammersmith and Fulham Council, to the White City Campus.
Hosted by Professor Deborah Ashby, Director of Imperial's School of Public Health, Cllr Coleman got an insight into Imperial's plans for a brand new School of Public Health at White City and heard about how the College is already forging links with the local community.
Earlier this year, Imperial launched a £100m fundraising campaign to support the development of the new School of Public Health, which will pioneer new approaches to society's most pressing healthcare challenges across four key areas: World Health, Food and Nutrition, Community Health and Policy, and Children's Health and Wellbeing.
Councillor Coleman praised Imperial's aspiration to use the School of Public Health to improve the physical and mental health of the local community while undertaking research that will have a global impact.
The College's vision is to work in partnership with the local community at White City to bring cutting-edge research expertise and evidence-based solutions to the public health challenges that affect the local community most profoundly including on food and nutrition, where Imperial is already at the leading edge of research and its application.
Professor Deborah Ashby, Director of the School of Public Health, said: "It was a real pleasure to welcome Councillor Coleman and Dr Anita Parkin to our White City Campus and share our plans for the new School of Public Health."
"This state-of-the-art multidisciplinary hub will provide collaborative and interactive spaces for the College's world-leading academics and talented students, whilst providing a welcoming place that complements the local area and offering new opportunities to engage with the local community. I look forward to the prospect of future opportunities to collaborate with the Council on our shared public health priorities in the local area".
Councillor Ben Coleman, Cabinet Member for Health and Adult Social Care at Hammersmith and Fulham Council, said: "I am delighted that Imperial College is choosing to move its world-leading School of Public Health to our borough. Their approach of working closely with local people is spot on and is giving residents young and old a range of new opportunities."
The Councillor was also given a tour of The Invention Rooms - a pioneering space on Wood Lane which brings community engagement and cutting-edge innovation together under one roof.
A first of its kind in the UK, The Invention Rooms hosts cutting-edge workshops, design studios and interactive spaces which allow local young people to get free hands-on experience of designing and prototyping.
The Invention Rooms recently celebrated the opening of its new community space and café - The Interaction Zone - where the local community can take part in free hands-on activities, classes, tours, or relax over a cup of coffee alongside Imperial's staff and students.


Download "Chapter 7 Multimedia Operating Systems"
2 Introduction To Multimedia (1) Figure 7-1. Video on demand using different local distribution technologies. (a) ADSL.
3 Introduction To Multimedia (2) Figure 7-1. Video on demand using different local distribution technologies. (b) Cable TV.
4 Introduction To Multimedia (3) Key characteristics of multimedia: 1. Multimedia uses extremely high data rates. 2. Multimedia requires real-time playback.
5 Introduction To Multimedia (4) Figure 7-2. Some data rates for multimedia and high-performance I/O devices. Note that 1 Mbps is 10 6 bits/sec but 1 GB is 2 30 bytes.
6 Multimedia Files Figure 7-3. A movie may consist of several files.
7 Video Encoding Figure 7-4. The scanning pattern used for NTSC video and television.
8 Audio Encoding Figure 7-5. (a) A sine wave. (b) Sampling the sine wave. (c) Quantizing the samples to 4 bits.
9 The JPEG Standard (1) Figure 7-6. (a) RGB input data. (b) After block preparation.
10 The JPEG Standard (2) Figure 7-7. (a) One block of the Y matrix. (b) The DCT coefficients.
11 The JPEG Standard (3) Figure 7-8. Computation of the quantized DCT coefficients.
12 The JPEG Standard (4) Figure 7-9. The order in which the quantized values are transmitted.
13 The MPEG Standard (1) Three types of MPEG-2 frames processed by the viewing program: 1. I (Intracoded) frames: Self-contained JPEG-encoded still pictures. 2. P (Predictive) frames: Block-by-block difference with the last frame. 3. B (Bidirectional) frames: Differences with the last and next frame.
14 The MPEG Standard (2) Figure Three consecutive video frames.
15 Audio Compression (1) Figure (a) A binary signal and its root-mean-square Fourier amplitudes.
16 Audio Compression (2) Figure (b) (e) Successive approximations to the original signal.
17 Audio Compression (3) Figure (b) (e) Successive approximations to the original signal.
18 Audio Compression (4) Figure (a) The threshold of audibility as a function of frequency. (b) The masking effect.
19 Audio Compression (5) Possible sampling configurations: 1. Monophonic (a single input stream). 2. Dual monophonic (e.g., an English and a Japanese soundtrack). 3. Disjoint stereo (each channel compressed separately). 4. Joint stereo (interchannel redundancy fully exploited).
20 General Real-Time Scheduling Figure Three periodic processes, each displaying a movie. The frame rates and processing requirements per frame are different for each movie.
21 Rate Monotonic Scheduling (1) Required conditions for RMS: 1. Each periodic process must complete within its period. 2. No process is dependent on any other process. 3. Each process needs same amount of CPU time on each burst. 4. Nonperiodic processes have no deadlines. 5. Process preemption occurs instantaneously and with no overhead.
22 Rate Monotonic Scheduling (2) Figure An example of RMS and EDF real-time scheduling.
23 Earliest Deadline First Scheduling Figure Another example of real-time scheduling with RMS and EDF.
24 Multimedia File System Paradigms Figure (a) A pull server. (b) A push server.
25 Near Video on Demand Figure Near video on demand has a new stream starting at regular intervals, in this example every 5 minutes (9000 frames).
27 Near Video on Demand with VCR Functions (2) Figure (c) After waiting 3 min. (d) After starting to refill the buffer. (e) Buffer full.
28 Placing a File on a Single Disk Figure Interleaving video, audio, and text in a single contiguous file per movie.
29 Two Alternative File Organization Strategies (1) Figure Noncontiguous movie storage. (a) Small disk blocks.
30 Two Alternative File Organization Strategies (2) Figure Noncontiguous movie storage (b) Large disk blocks.
31 Two Alternative File Organization Strategies (3) Trade-offs involved in these alternatives: 1. Frame index: Heavier RAM usage while movie is playing; little disk wastage. 2. Block index (no splitting frames over blocks): Low RAM usage; major disk wastage. 3. Block index (splitting frames over blocks is allowed): Low RAM usage; no disk wastage; extra seeks.
32 Placing Files for Near Video on Demand Figure Optimal frame placement for near video on demand.
33 Placing Multiple Files on a Single Disk (1) Figure The curve gives Zipf s law for N = 20. The squares represent the populations of the 20 largest cities in the U.S., sorted on rank order (New York is 1, Los Angeles is 2, Chicago is 3, etc.).
34 Placing Multiple Files on a Single Disk (2) Figure The organ-pipe distribution of files on a video server.
35 Placing Files on Multiple Disks (1) Figure Four ways of organizing multimedia files over multiple disks. (a) No striping. (b) Same striping all files.
36 Placing Files on Multiple Disks (2) Figure Four ways of organizing multimedia files over multiple disks. (c) Staggered striping. (d) Random striping.
37 Block Caching (1) Figure (a) Two users watching the same movie 10 sec out of sync.
38 Block Caching (2) Figure (b) Merging the two streams into one.
39 Static Disk Scheduling Figure In one round, each movie asks for one frame.
40 Dynamic Disk Scheduling Figure The scan-edf algorithm uses deadlines and cylinder numbers for scheduling.
Ch 4: Multimedia Recent advances in technology have changed our use of audio and video. In the past, we listened to an audio broadcast through a radio and watched a video program broadcast through a TV.
Mul$media Streaming. Digital Audio and Video Data. Digital Audio Sampling the analog signal. Challenges for Media Streaming.
Antik Media Streamer End-to-End TV Everywhere delivery system. Antik Media Streamer provides you with end-to-end way to create, deliver secure and manage your local or global content delivery network.
How to Hulu. How to Hulu. This guide will help you navigate through the Hulu website. Written By: Guillermo it.wheelock.
MediaTek Technology White Paper May 2015 Introducing Slow Motion Video MediaTek s Slow Motion Video technology allows the device user to easily capture, replay, and share a fast moving object any time.