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BRF Oldie
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda
Re: Deterrence
Postby shiv » 13 Nov 2009 17:55
Tanaji wrote: Naive question:
Why do you need 25 Kt or 15Kt bombs for deterrence? These bombs will not cause infrastructure damage as Shiv himself is pointing out. So why not build weapons that release massive amounts of radioactivity designed to kill living things and make things inhabitable for near and medium term future? So, basically just load up some Co60 type of things that will release massive radioactivity. Will kill a lot of people...
Dont know how much "KT" is required for the above. Why isn't the above deterrence?
Tanaji even 15 kt (at the optimum height) will demolish all residential buildings for a radius of 1 km and kill 90% of people in the area. Most modern and congested city centers have a population of 25,000 people per sq km and you can guarantee at least 100,000 immediate deaths and maybe another 50,000 dying within a few days, with 100,000 injured.
Co 60 apparently has to be generated by your bomb itself by putting a "tamper' of Cobalt 59 around your bomb. But you can use good old Plutonium as a dirty bomb. Inefficient fizzles are by definition dirty bombs. But apparently the problem with radioactivity fallout is that its effect is very slow and does not give immediate satisfaction. But that does not mean that you can't have a dirty mind and plan something dirty I mean put a 15 kt to make people run and put some dirty bombs in the areas they are running towards
But yes a dirty bomb seems to be the easiest thing if you have the material. Unkil gives you RDX. Chinkil gives you Pu and you give everyone diarrhea from fallout.
Tanaji
Postby Tanaji » 13 Nov 2009 18:12
Yes, hit the city with 1 -2 15 KT ones and then hit the likely escape routes, there would HAVE to be some choke points somewhere, with dirty bombs. Reminded of the Ajit joke:
Use liquid aaxygen me daal do.. liquid use jeene nahi dega aur oxygen use marne nahi dega...
Actually Tanaji - after you asked your "naive question" I found an interesting link that downplays the hazards of fallout (and megaton bombs for that matter)
http://www.uow.edu.au/~bmartin/pubs/82cab/
In the immediate vicinity of a nuclear explosion, most casualties result from blast, heat and fallout during the first few days.[3] The blast or heat from a one megatonne bomb - about 75 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb, and a size often found in nuclear arsenals - would kill almost all people, even those in shelters, out to a distance of two kilometres. Beyond ten kilometres the chance of death even for people without special protection would be very small. If the bomb is exploded at an altitude higher than the radius of the fireball from the explosion, as happened at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, local fallout is minimal. If exploded at or near the earth's surface, fallout lethal to unprotected people will be deposited downwind - most often to the east toward which prevailing upper atmospheric winds blow - for a distance of up to hundreds of kilometres. After a fortnight the radiation levels will have dropped to about one thousandth of what they were one hour after the blast.
Nuclear war would also result in various long range effects, beyond the range of blast, heat and local fallout. These effects - effects hundreds or thousands of kilometres from nuclear explosions - are known as 'global' effects. The most well known is global radioactive fallout. Many people believe that this fallout, or some other effect, would cause the death of most or all the people on earth in the event of major nuclear war. This is the idea portrayed in the popular novel On the Beach.[8] However, the available scientific evidence provides no support for such a doomsday scenario
If the bomb is exploded at or near the surface of the earth, a large amount of dust, dirt and other surface materials will also be lifted with the updraft. Some of the fission products will adhere to these particles, or onto the material used to construct the bomb. The very largest particles - stones and pebbles - will fall back to earth in a matter of minutes or hours. Lighter material - ash or dust - will fall to earth within a few days, or perhaps be incorporated in raindrops. The radioactive material which returns to earth within 24 hours is called early or local fallout. It is the most dangerous.
By the time stratospheric fallout reaches the earth, its radioactivity is greatly reduced. For example, after one year, the time typically required for any sizable amount of fission products to move from the northern to the southern stratosphere, the rate of decay will be less than a hundred thousandth of what it was one hour after the blast. It is for this reason that stratospheric fallout does not have the potential to cause widespread and immediate sickness or death.
read the whole article if you like - pretty interesting
D Roy
BRFite
Postby D Roy » 13 Nov 2009 18:49
Chernobyl today is a nature park reserve. Animals are far less scared of radiation than humans are.
Manish_Sharma
Postby Manish_Sharma » 13 Nov 2009 19:34
^^DRoy, there is a novel called "Wolves Eat Dogs" by Marting Cruz Smith (Gorky Park, Polar Star author). This novel is written on Chornobyl and its effects upto 2007. There is a lot of mention about Cesium 137 and how upto now it is causing cancer to humans. But somehow animals have been safe from its effects wolves, deer etc. and how they have lost their shyness of humans. Very interesting read.
Thanks Manish,
I will look that one up certainly.
On a different note the UNSCEAR report on chernobyl states that the number of fatal cancers attributable to the disaster is about 4000 in addition to the 100000 or so ( due to all other causes) fatal cancers expected in the population living around chernobyl.
D Roy wrote: Chernobyl today is a nature park reserve. Animals are far less scared of radiation than humans are.
But the point is of "deterrence" NOT actual damage. If you are forced to use a weapon, deterrence has broken down as others have said on the thread.
Shiv, that report talks about a conventional nuke. What if someone designed an extremely dirty nuke, with size of fallout particles optimally designed so that they fall > 24 hours after explosion, using elements that have a longer half life. I would guess the impact would be far greater than the fallout of a conventional nuclear device.
Would someone be deterred by the prospect of having millions dying slowly by radiation, thousands of aborted still births, and births with major defects due to radiation related mutations, similar damage to crops and lifestock? Even though the actual physical damage is comparatively small? I dont know, but to me its scary? This is similar to the 5.56 mm vs 7.62 mm round argument....
Postby samuel » 13 Nov 2009 20:14
This book was great:
Frank C. Zagare, D. Marc Kilgour, Perfect Deterrence.
This link may get one started or jazzed:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=w ... uvT0ZwIZ9A
The Escalation game and backtracking (authors call it backward induction -- to determine deterrence).
Added: Also, see
http://www.springerlink.com/content/k074x38000660644/
Connecting sizzle-e-fizzle with deterrence:
A challenger initiates for certain if the pawn is valuable enough to it and never challenges otherwise, Likewise, a defender always resists if the pawn is valuable enough and never resists otherwise.
In addition to identifying threshold values for optimal strategic choice, we provide existence conditions for the two distinct types of Perfect Bayesian Equilibria. This permits us to identify the exact set of conditions associated with bluffing strategies and to develop a theory of the necessary and sufficient conditions for extended deterrence crisis initiation and its resolution
Sam that is a great flow chart - I have taken the liberty of adding numbers in red to the paths so that we can trace what happened in the past. eg Kargil
I think Kargil took the path 2, 5, 8 with Pakistan as "Challenger"
The 1965 war was 2, 4, 7, 11, with Pakistan as challenger.
But the point is of "deterrence" NOT actual damage
Thank You. That's exactly the point.
whether you should be 'scared' or 'not'.
Radiation has been additionally turned into a psychological phenomena as revealed by animal behaviour and that is the context in which that post was made.
1 kiloton of nuke is less in terms of blast effects than 1 kt of TNT, since a part of the energy is released as radiation. ( hence all the rona dhona about the possibility of puuure phusion astra.)
An area hit by a salted bomb can in theory be decontaminated over time.
explosive destructive capability is important. No point denying that.
Umrao Das
Postby Umrao Das » 13 Nov 2009 21:03
But I can't believe in what has not been tested, especially once Doubt has been cast.
In a land where Raja Ram used to frequent and keep order... The Raja on hearing that drunken washerman in brawl questioned the integrity of the first lady Sita and doubts were seeded, he ceeded his wife unilateraly and banished her divorce....
Once doubt has been cast of all people not a waherman but "Santanam" (which means progeny) of the system is ot time for Agni pareeksha?
By the way to resolve all these Nuclear matters one should read American publications or Australian study eapecially Aussies what do they know they did even explode a bum.
Best aand authentic sources are Hollywood or Bollywood movies wher Atr mimics or merges with science.
I strongly recommend this movie to solve all lingering suspecions and yield to truth ye shall
once you watch this you are no longer at cross roads and in doubt, you will yield to the right path.
I "doubt" if you have actually seen the movie yourself.
D Roy wrote: I "doubt" if you have actually seen the movie yourself.
I had no Doubts
That it would win Oscars.
There rests your doubt.
Your suspicion is no doubt but an imagination.
He He.
Right, the danger with China is that we seem to be going your path 2 - 4 (China's "demanding" and we're "defying").
Of the possible leaf nodes post 2-4, in an "all out" we lose because of asymmetry. So, either we "escalate" (2-5, tibet now, reverse encirclement, robust nuclear posture) or prepare to win a limited
conflict (2-4-6) for successfully defying. Covering these two options might be the deterrence we seek, in the sense of these authors. Of course, their game is also a little idealized. There are other deterrence games (third party games) that we can include, all of which end up with a Kennedyesque recipe for success. "eint-ka-javab-pathar" type of argument.
NRao
Location: Illini Nation
Postby NRao » 13 Nov 2009 21:50
True. I would agree.
However, the doubt has been cast ONLY only WRT to the TN. NOT on other types of nuclear weapons AND deterrence - per Santhanam Himself.
Santhanam claiming that a test was an outright failure goes beyond this.
Again, and only for greater clarification, this pertains to ONLY the TN device.
(Point being India - per Santhanam - has the "smaller" Kt weapons. The capability to build these weapons in the 100x Kt range exists. That is NOT an issue. AND deterrence exists.)
It's a long way from that to achieving reliable weaponization and operational readiness.
Perhaps WRT to the TN weapon.
The rest is in place (again, per Santhanam) and there is deterrence.
Location: Third World Country
Postby anuj » 13 Nov 2009 23:45
Hmm. seems like you people are going in circles.
Deterrence is a strategy by which governments threaten an immense retaliation if attacked, such that aggressors are deterred if they do not wish to suffer great damage as a result of an aggressive action. Weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), conventional weapons strength, economic sanctions, or any combination of these can be used as deterrents.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory
Here immense retaliation could just well mean "preparing for a war" and great damage could just well mean "maximum possible damage" one could inflict if not equivalent damage.
I think we already have deterrence since we already have nuclear weapons and can kill millions of there citizens, that is deterrent enough. But we need to keep building more nukes just to make the opposite party sure that we can infact make there yard more unlivable in case of a nuclear war.
I however doubt that there will be any nuclear war between india and china. Though china may put more bombs on india, china will still receive it's share of bombs on it's soil and the aftermath will leave it preparing for the fallout, evacuation of people etc etc. US and russia will no doubt use this opportunity and china knows that.
Hence i think india and china have moved towards diplomacy, the who has the longer d1ck theory.
But, it is because we have not been able to stick with the word "deterrence".
Perhaps, just for the heck of it, we should have another thread "Post-deterrence" (where we can discuss 3 Mt vs. 25/50 Kt, etc) and then we will get some convergence.
Preparing for post-deterrence is deterrence. If is not the number of nukes you have at your disposal. It is letting your enemy know how much lethal you will prove to be once or if he provokes you.
For to be lethal, i will have to build an arsenal of weapons. It is NOT because im scared of you or because i like a cold war. It is to keep you in your place. I have a small gun but since you are so big in size, you think you can came at me and believe you'll survive my retaliation with an injury and can recover from. This time i will keep a tank with me. Sure it is not a war ship or anything bigger but it is enough to take you down brother.
Deterrence is hence preparing for the show down. Deterrence isn't measured in terms of numbers or a stockpile. It is measured in terms of lethality. Numbers and stockpile are a byproduct of lethality. And lethality and post-deterrence are a byproduct of deterrence.
The above is after assuming that Country A doesn't care if a few million of it's citizens gets killed because of it's misadventure.
If a country does care about it's citizens or is a responsible country then a 5kt nuke will be enough to deter it from launching a nuclear attack.
Last edited by anuj on 14 Nov 2009 00:43, edited 1 time in total.
If we work with China towards a positive, mutually assured existence, is that not deterrence? If we accept their leadership in many matters, is that not deterrence? If we get under Unkil's protection, will that not be deterrence?
Rudradev
Postby Rudradev » 14 Nov 2009 00:44
samuel wrote: If we work with China towards a positive, mutually assured existence, is that not deterrence?
This is what we thought we were doing with "Panchsheel".
We should know by now, that the Chinese will not respond to appeals to their "higher selves", unless we are simultaneously able to deter their "lower selves" beyond any doubt of disastrous retaliation in the event our faith is betrayed.
All those things are forms of "deterrence" and each comes with an associated cost in opportunity, freedom of action and independence (or "sovereignty" if we want to sound righteously indignant about it). If deterrence is an end that any means will justify, then any of these methods will do. If it is itself only the means to a greater end, then we must carefully consider what is being given up in order to secure it.
Last edited by Rudradev on 14 Nov 2009 00:47, edited 1 time in total.
Just because it did not work once, should we be shy the second time? After all Mao is gone and China has much to lose too. To get out of the cycle of escalation, war, death and destruction, should we not push and sell peace through economic stimulus and better people-to-people connections? My pulao for your kung-pao, hey?
samuel wrote: Just because it did not work once, should we be shy the second time? After all Mao is gone and China has much to lose too. To get out of the cycle of escalation, war, death and destruction, should we not push and sell peace through economic stimulus and better people-to-people connections?
But we ARE trying all those things, and more besides. We have completely reconciled ourselves to an official position that Tibet is a part of China, and do not argue with the "One China" policy, maintaining only very low-key diplomatic relations with Taiwan. All this is being done to appease the Chinese in the hope that a sincere desire to coexist peacefully and prosperously will prevail over their attitude to India.
All indications are that the Chinese are not more likely to keep good faith now than they were in 1962. They hold out the promise of resolving border issues in exchange for better trade and diplomatic relations, and then at a convenient time redact their position and rattle sabers over Arunachal Pradesh. Their proliferation and assistance to Pakistan, and assistance to anti-India terrorist groups all over the Indian subcontinent continue unchecked. At some point the evidence of our senses must count for something however noble our intentions may be.
If A is responsible of starting a war with B in the past, will A feel "secured" with B that it won't be hostile to it the coming future, even if both have agreed to live peacefully. There will always be a guilty feeling in A that B might take revenge. And hence it will always remain vigilant and paranoid.
samuel wrote: If we accept their leadership in many matters, is that not deterrence?
That is equal to surrender. That will never happen and they know that hence they are trying to limit us in south asia because they know this is own town.
samuel wrote: If we get under Unkil's protection, will that not be deterrence?
Protection under unkil is a misconception. If i understand the amirkhans better, it will be in there interest to watch both india-china slug it out and mutually go back a 100 years.
That's what I find amazing. We can take some very conservative, if I can use that word, people of India who could be "hawks" and talk to them about love, brotherhood, harmony, and they are willing to pursue, acknowledge that option. Rudradev, who chose to respond to me, did not e-slap me and say, are you nuts? He said, we are trying that, we need to look at cost and benefit; he did not say these are stupid ideas. I believe our people are prone to see good in this openness approach. We like it. But, if we, as a people, have in recent times been telling ourselves to be cautious, to be prepared, to make sure we are covered, then the problem isn't with our mental state going postal, it's our collective experience, which is as valid as anything can be.
To me that means this history of Mutually Assured Existence that has become the boiler plate of our interaction with the world is not sufficient for deterrence for India any more. It won't work. We need to ensure we come out top on an escalation (e.g. tree posted above), we need to ensure we come out top in other scenarios. China isn't deterred by India, China is just doing what it does. When the time is right, it will come down to the plains and that won't be because it stopped being deterred, it would be because we never sent them to the deterrence corner.
Capability is late nt, even Ghana has capability to build H bum.
Everybody has capability to build bum even Taliban...
samuel wrote: China isn't deterred by India, China is just doing what it does. When the time is right, it will come down to the plains and that won't be because it stopped being deterred, it would be because we never sent them to the deterrence corner.
And China is unlikely to be deterred by India trying to build more bombs, They too will build more bombs and gift bombs to Bangladesh and Myanmar. And as long as we have Indians wanting to go back to the glory days of Somnath and Hampi where we allowed cities to be ransacked by invaders and now rationalise that "It is OK to lose cities in a war" we will have business as usual.
If India and china are willing to lose cities in a war neither civilization will win. If India is wiling to lose cities and China isn't deterrence will hold. If China is willing to lose cities and India thinks it can get away - India is screwed no matter what it does. Chinese rationality is a fundamental requirement here. So is Indian rationality for that matter.
Cities define a civilization - not poverty stricken iron age villages. Both nations must be unwilling to lose cities for deterrence to hold.
Last edited by shiv on 14 Nov 2009 07:28, edited 1 time in total.
Kanson
Postby Kanson » 14 Nov 2009 07:27
Rudradev wrote:
kanson wrote: Nice cogent argument. Infact i prepared to reply is becoz it appears so cogent. But i ask you a question. In a fight which appears you are not winning, with your back to the wall, what you do of these two choices ?
a. Surrender; accept disgrace, suzerainty etc
b. fight back with whatever you have and whatever you can throw against.
If your choice is 'a' then our discussion ends here and pls dont proceed to read further.
Coming to the discussion, accepting 25 kt or 200 kt comes only if deterrence fails. I think you can easily agree with that. If deterrence holds there is no war and B country fallout etc.
When deterrence fails and nuclear war progress, as you talk about nuking the B country with megaton dont you think, we having sitting on the stockpile of huge Pu will throw everything at them ? As Shiv talks about theoretical TN, let say suppose, our weapon can give only 60% yield as Santhanam claims, if we make 3 MT bomb, with 60% yield only, can it give in MT yield, theoretically speaking. So dont you throw these theoretically 60% MT bomb at the B country which you talk about(like the Americans did to Japan)when your back is against the wall. Whether it is going to give 60% or 80% or 30% is moot. Question is will you throw whatever you have at them or not. Even at 30% it will give a same fallout effect that you talk about to B country. Agreed ?
If it was tested, it wouldn't be moot.
It was tested, otherwise why would someone call the test as "half-burn". So if it is going to be only a "half-burn" as suggested, you can think about all possiblities. If it works it is fine. Otherwise we are going to have the same fallout as suggested with MT bombs, if only primary detonated, as it acts similar to "dirty bomb".
Of course in a war we will throw everything we have... we can throw chappals at them too. But the question is how reliable is our capacity to damage them?
Why stop at chappals, you can throw in towels too. Thats why i asked to select your choice. No point in discussion on this if your idea is (cross posted from Afghan thread)
Rudradev wrote: We might have to give up Aksai Chin and Ladakh to the Chinese.
A 3 MT device may give us only 50 kT per Santhanam's allegations. You can't assume 30% fusion yield with any more confidence than you can assume 100%.
There is no proper statement from Santhanam and he is not talking anything abt MT weapon. When there is full blown N war, confidence etc are going to be of least consideration in your mind.
We may be able to develop a theoretical TN, but banking on that for deterrence is like assuming our assets to already include squadrons of LCAs, Arjuns, Agni Vs, and super-duper nuclear powered aircraft carriers when making operational plans for a conventional war. We can do lots of things in theory. It's a long way from that to achieving reliable weaponization and operational readiness.
I guess i dont know whether the person i'm talking to know the difference btwn Deterrence and full blown N war. While we are talking abt N war in B country you are talking about Deterrence.
Jarita
Location: Andromeda
Postby Jarita » 14 Nov 2009 07:37
Kanson wrote:
??? What sort of mindset is this
Kanson wrote: Why stop at chappals, you can throw in towels too. Thats why i asked to select your choice. No point in discussion on this if your idea is (cross posted from Afghan thread)
Rudradev wrote:We might have to give up Aksai Chin and Ladakh to the Chinese.
Kanson: you are a moron and a troll.
Feeble minded posters such as yourself, who can't hope to win an argument without attacking or slandering your opponent on a personal level, embody the reason why BRF has followed the same trajectory (for the most part) as the Indian Media, or American cable news over the last decade. Too much of it has become a morass of braying opinion-cliques that shout down independent thinking by trying to force their own petty classifications on any original thought that a poster might express.
To those such as yourself, winning a cheap little internet squabble by tarnishing your opponent is the entire purpose of spending time and effort here. How very sad that this is all you're capable of getting out of this site.
I made a post in the Afghan thread, yes, and I made it in the context of a thought-experiment. You know, "thought", like members of BRF used to do with their minds before the likes of you came along to ruin it for us? I made a postulate, not because I personally believe in it, but because thinking along the lines of an SCO-based Afghan solution has not even been discussed and I wanted to open it up as an avenue of debate. But you looked at my post there, and didn't even register the possibility of ideation... you merely saw the opportunity to score a cheap shot somewhere else.
Kala akshar bhains barabar, as they say. I'm not surprised.
You are quoting one line of my post, out of context, in a completely different thread, because you think it will earn you brownie points with the sort of brain-dead, attention-deficit jingo-vadis who would rather look at the "headline crawl" on a cable TV news channel than read and analyze an actual news item. Much less, the gods forbid, a real book.
After all, where you come from, debate is won solely by the decibels of crony applause you can manage to drum up... correct?
Please go ahead and address whoever else you want... I will be ignoring your posts from now on.
Rudradev,
Since you have nothing to do with me, you leave me with no other choice other than returning your compliments back.
made it in the context of a thought-experiment. You know, "thought", like members of BRF used to do with their minds before the likes of you came along to ruin it for us? I made a postulate, not because I personally believe in it, but because thinking along the lines of an SCO-based Afghan solution has not even been discussed and I wanted to open it up as an avenue of debate.
I see ! Let say why not start this thought process with the families of thousands of people who laid their lives in 1962 ? or with these people. People say charity start at home. Why dont let start the thought process from your home town. If AP is not seen as a god damn commodity and all this for Afghan solution then we could even start from Kashmir and Punjab, na?. And I'm seeing from childhood representing your home country as "Mother". Would you allow your "thought" process to....just for discussion only na ?
Feeble minded posters such as yourself
Arre "stable minded" professor, if you r saying this in India publically, you can be booked under the charges of sedition. I'm saying all these things becoz of ur reply. Enjoy your stay.
On the issue of deterrence, it is well worth revisiting an article by Adm Arun Prakash that was posted earlier and has appeared in a recent issue of FORCE magazine
http://www.maritimeindia.org/pdfs/STRAT ... MAKING.pdf
Lack of Independent Advice
A situation wherein the nation's complete nuclear weapon programme is
largely conceptualized controlled and operated by civilians, may have been
understandable when we were in an evolutionary era of testing or
technology demonstration, but 10 years after Pokhran II, such an
arrangement loses its validity in the context of a nuclear weapon state with
a growing arsenal. While the nation can fervently hope that it will never be
faced with a nuclear conflict, it is courting disaster to keep the armed forces
isolated during peacetime, from the systems and weapons which they may
have to deploy at extremely short notice, during the fog and turbulence of
India's unique policy of continued separation of the military from nuclear
policy and decision-making is an open secret internationally. This issue not
only receives frequent media attention and is analyzed at great length in
writings on India's nuclear programme, but invites incredulous comment
and speculation; all of which serves to erode the credibility of the nuclear
deterrent.
This methodology has remained more or less unchanged since
independence, and the Santhanam controversy should induce us to cast
our mind back over events of the past decade.
Deterrence Credibility
Deterrence certainly lies in the mind of the opponent, and unless the
potential adversary is thoroughly convinced of its credibility (in all its
aspects) there is a very real danger of "deterrence breakdown", an issue, of
which we have not yet taken full cognizance. The deafening silence that
followed Pokhran I for the next 24 years exposed the total lack of a military,
political or technological strategy to guide India's subsequent actions in the
arena of nuclear weapon development.
Equally unfathomable was the logic and timing of Pokhran II, as well as
some of the actions that followed this defining event. Having voluntarily and
gratuitously declared (without consulting a single military person), a
"moratorium on testing" and offered a "no first use" guarantee within days
of the 1998 tests, the Indian Nuclear Doctrine then bravely threatens to
inflict "unacceptable damage" on the originator of a first strike. Mr.
Santhanam's skeptical views have a significant bearing on the existing and
future India-China-Pakistan nuclear equation.
Preparing for post-deterrence is deterrence.
A well prepared post-deterrence is a (significant?) part of a deterrence.
However, a deterrence should be targeted at the opponent's decision makerS. "Decision makerS" should make up a team - consisting of people that represent the entire spectrum within the politico-economic spread.
I am more than sure that in China there are those in this spectrum that are itching to "teach India" the next lesson (or was it the 1962 lesson). India I think will rely on those within that group that are not itching to convince these itchy guys to hold. IF I am not mistaken we are actually witnessing some of these dynamics as we post - at the conventional level.
Conversely China did depend on CPI to influence Indian decision making too. And, today you can actually witness the absence of the CPI in the UPA's decisions. Granted this is not nuclear realted, but to a great extent that is how it works.
If is not the number of nukes you have at your disposal. It is letting your enemy know how much lethal you will prove to be once or if he provokes you.
Post-deterrence is very different. It has to be dominated by force and therefore destruction.
Teh decision making should by now be relegated to a very, very narrow thinking: what has survived and how effectively can we use what has survived.
NRao wrote:
Nrao - I was reading a very interesting article from 1980 which basically argued that the "counter force" doctrine (of knocking out an enemy's nuclear forces) was complete rubbish because the missiles (up to time of writing - 1980) were too inaccurate to be relied on to actually destroy an enemy's nuclear force even with megaton warheads. (The article is here - kelik). The author argued that ships and subs need to know their exact position at launch to achieve accuracy and that was the problem (then)
Obviously the problem has now been solved (for the US) with GPS. But if you cannot rely on GPS you have little chance of hitting a known silo, and less chance of hitting a mobile enemy warhead in a counter force strike especially from a mobile launch platform whose launch coordinates are themselves not exactly known.
That is why a post deterrence scenario talks of the simplest and easiest thing to do - a counter value strike on soft civilian targets - cities.
Postby wig » 15 Nov 2009 15:26
moderators, rakshaks,
my apologies if this has already been posted.
this article is of immense topical importance and appears in today's print edition of the Tribune.
i am unable to post a link. computer savvy rakshaks or mods may please post the headline and attach/ edit the rest as i am not aware of the protocols/ copyright issues involved.
A Tribune Special
To test or not to test
K. Santhanam and Ashok Parthasarathi join the scientists' debate
WE respond to R. Ramachandran's article, "Why There is No Case for Further Nuclear Tests" (The Hindu, September 25, 2009). His main points are: "technical information published by the Department of Atomic Energy does not show Pokhran-II (P-2) was unsuccessful"; (b) an assertion: there are compelling arguments against need for resuming (thermonuclear (H-bomb) device testing). Even if it was so i.e. even if the thermonuclear test was a failure (c) "the DAE employed different techniques to estimate test yields (i.e. power outputs); (d) yield values from other five tests "are stated to be"! (by BARC) consistent with its original estimate of 60 kilotonnes (a bomb's output equal to 60,000 tonnes of TNT) for the two main tests on May 11, 1998, i.e. a 45-kt (thermonuclear or TN) device and a 15 kt A-bomb exploded simultaneously. Of these, post-shot Radio-Chemical Method (RCM) (of device yield measurement) considered most accurate; (e) both A-bomb "trigger" and main H-bomb produce a type of nuclear particles called Neutrons.
However, H-bomb devices, produce more Neutrons than A-bombs. This leads to considerably larger amounts of two artificially created radio-isotopes — Manganese 54 and Sodium 22 — being produced by the TN device than the A-bomb. This higher ratio of Manganese 54: Sodium22 in the H-bomb explosion does provide an "idea" of the A–vs – H-bomb/device yields (no numbers at all; only "an idea" of relative yield magnitudes); and this is supposed to be nuclear "physics"!).
The writer's justification: "The absolute values and scale of this higher ratio, (in TN device case) withheld for "obvious" sensitivity reasons, but qualitative difference in levels is evident". The writer's source: a BARC Newsletter article (July 1999). It is not a peer-reviewed scientific journal.
(f) His last technical "scoring-point" is a "desperate explanation" of why and how, while the "pure" A-bomb of the BARC-claimed yield of only 15 kt – when its collaborator in P-2 – DRDO, and our top scientific institutions, as also numerous top nuclear weapons laboratories worldwide, have rated it at much higher 20-25 kt, produced a crater 25 meters in diameter — which the BARC dishonestly-claimed yield of only 15 kt could never have produced — the BARC–claimed -to-be-"successful" -H-bomb-of-45 kt, – thrice as powerful – even at BARC de-rated 15 kt yield pure 'A' bomb – produced no crater at all when a genuine 45 kt TN device, even common sense tell us, should have produced a gigantic crater. He says "at some low enough TN device emplacements, i.e. deep enough shafts, there would (only be) upheaval within the shaft) but no material... There would be no crater"!
Here is our response. As regards Mr Ramachandran's regurgitation of the BARC argument that it used different techniques in yield estimation, he was not personally involved in the tests. Mr Santhanam was one of the four key scientists directing P-2 from day 1. So, he can only say "45 kt fusion device and 15 kt fission bomb "are stated to be" (by BARC) "consistent with original estimates". On what basis can he say this when those estimates are highly classified?
As for post-shot RCM being "most accurate" (for nuclear explosions yield (power) estimation), former BARC Director's Radiochemistry Division (RCD) told us: "I measured yield of (P-I) (1974) using Mass Spectrometry (MS) method. A microgram of plutonium was separated from sample taken near core of device, and its isotopic composition — which does not change with various transformations caused by nuclear tests — measured.
The MS technique considered internationally the most accurate and reliable method for yield estimation even more accurate than RCM (which the writer tomtoms about, without knowing about nuclear weapon yield measurement). The MSM is far less sensitive to major weakness of the RCM. That's why Dr Ramanna, former BARC Director, former AEC Chairman, and Mission Director P-1, insisted on the MS method for (P-1) yield estimation in 1974. If the MS method was used in (P-2) also, why exclude it in the BARC's briefing to Mr Ramachandran?
Using S.B. Manohar's article (BARC Newsletter, July 9, 1999) on RCM to determine TN device yield lacks credibility as it is an inhouse publication.
As for the BARC argument, the TN device produced "copious amounts" of Sodium-22 and Manganese-54 isotopes "characteristic of fusion reactions", in the absence of exact numbers, it is an unsubstantiated assertion. A "fizzled" TN device also produces "copious amounts" of these isotopes.
Moreover, mere presence of isotopes is not a quantitative yield measure. It can at best be a qualitative indicator. This obfuscation becomes worse when the writer said, "…it does provide an idea of the comparative (i.e. H-bomb vis-a-vis A-bomb) yields"! As a scientist, he ought to know that precise quantified statements are core of science and scientific credibility. Using an imprecise phrase like "copious amounts" begs the question.
"The classified exact plutonium mass in the core of the (P-1) device may not have been known to the RC Division of BARC after P-1. However, RC measurements in RCD's report indicated yield are significantly lower than Ramanna's and Chidambaram's claim. So, RCD's report on yield of (P-1) was frozen by Ramanna and Chidambaram and consigned to the archives"!
The writer then moves to our statement that had TN test really worked, the 120-meter deep shaft at the bottom of which the TN device was emplaced, would have been totally destroyed and its deepest portions even vapourised. There would, in addition, have been enormous surface damage to even massive 2-tonne and 8-meter high tripod "A-frame" astride the shaft's mouth. This "A-Frame" has a complex set of winches and pullies connected at their bottom to a lift-like "container" to lower and raise personnel, equipment and materials to and from the bottom of the shaft when the TN device is being assembled would have been shattered.
Both were totally intact after the TN device test. Mr Ramachandran has ignored this damning evidence that the TN device failed! He moves to the issue of cratering, using the BARC's arguments on geological and TN device-related factors preventing crater formation by 45 kt yield TN device. Based on 25 metre diameter crater formed by 20-25 kt "pure" A-bomb (which BARC rates at only 15 kt yield), the DRDO calculated a 60-70 meter diameter crater should have been formed by the latter fully confirmed by the ARC. Thus, one needs a cogent response from Mr Ramachandran why and how such a phenomenon is supposed to have occurred.
The super hi-tech ARC, independent of both BARC and DRDO with a 365 x 24 x 7 operated very large seismic array, 10-15 per cent more sensitive and accurate than DRDO's, measured all the seismic signals from all P-2 tests. Their calculations, far more sophisticated than BARC's, indicated a TN device yield at only 20 kt max.
Mr Ramachandran then moves to the article by former DRDO chief and strategic affairs analyst, V.S. Arunachalam and K. Subramanian, respectively (The Hindu, September 21). They say, even a 25 kt A-bomb's damage on enemy city targets with large populations would be 'unacceptable' to any adversary and so such A- bombs would be enough for us to deter even China having 200 deployed H- bombs of 3.3-5 megatons yields each.
Surprisingly, though they argued for decades that H-bombs were central to our Credible Minimum Deterrent (CMD), they suddenly say A-bombs (which cannot yield more than 80 kt max) are enough. Why? Sour grapes following the TN device failure and no weaponisation for the last 11 years! China would be totally undeterred by our piffling A-bomb "arsenal" of yields.
We reiterate our view, fully shared by the overwhelming majority of our nuclear scientists, strategic analysts and, above all, our military, that a sole A-bomb arsenal is grossly inadequate to be a CMD against China; only TN bombs can do so. Otherwise, why did four Prime Ministers (including Mr Vajpayee and his NSA Mr Brajesh Mishra) direct the top of BARC-DRDO leadership — Mr Kalam, Mr Chidambaram, Mr Santhanam and Mr Kakodkar — that one Pokhran-II test at least must be a TN device?
The current "controversy" over the failure of the sole H-bomb test of P-2 is the only case of the long history of DAE, BARC being "highly economic with truth" and using such "economy" to protect themselves from public criticism of major failures in various programmes and projects. The failures have been screened from public gaze on unwarranted and secrecy grounds.
Worse, the DAE has tried to hide facts from successive governments, Parliament and the people, causing damage to our nuclear programme and national security. The Prime Minister and the Union Cabinet must help stop this. The nation waits with bated breath if they can or will.
K. Santhanam is a former Chief Adviser (Technologies), DRDO and Programme Director, Pokhran II; and Ashok Parthasarathi is a former Scientific and Technology Adviser to late Prime Minister Indira Gandhi
URL for the above posted article:
Santhanam :: Nov 15, 2009 :: To test or not to test
The article Santhanam, etc are rebutting:
Ramachandran :: Sept 25, 2009 :: Why there is no case for further nuclear tests
In his article, I am not sure where Santhanam got:
The writer then moves to our statement that had TN test really worked, the 120-meter deep shaft at the bottom of which the TN device was emplaced, would have been totally destroyed and its deepest portions even vapourised.
This is the very first time I am seeing "120" meters as depth by any author.
The R. Ramachandran article (that Santhanam mentions) does not have it. Just for the record Chengappa had it at greater than 200 meters and the first Ramachandran article had it at about 230 meters.
[However, a few observations about this very, very interesting "120-meter deep shaft at the bottom of which the TN device was emplaced", that Santhanam now has placed on the table. This depth could produce a crater of about 70 meters radius. However, from my observations it will not be in "granite" - it will be in a alluvial soil. And, that changes a constant in the equation that is used to compute radius, etc.
Added l8r: I get a radius of about 130 meters @ 120 meter deep assuming granite.]
Surprisingly, though they argued for decades that H-bombs were central to our Credible Minimum Deterrent (CMD), they suddenly say A-bombs (which cannot yield more than 80 kt max) are enough.
DecadeS?
Also, whey is he distorting the scene? A-bombs perhaps cannot exceed 80 Kt in yield, but FBF should be able to go much, much higher?
Then too he seems to have gone from the 20ish Kt range to accept at least 80 Kt range for Indian capabilities?
Santhanam on Nov 15, 2009 wrote: We reiterate our view, fully shared by the overwhelming majority of our nuclear scientists, strategic analysts and, above all, our military, that a sole A-bomb arsenal is grossly inadequate to be a CMD against China; only TN bombs can do so.
And, from The Myth Bomber:
Santhanam on Oct 5, 2009 wrote: But the failure of the TN device bothers you?
It bothered me then, it bothers me now. But it does not bother me to the extent that I spend sleepless nights, because in some sense the deterrence with the fission bomb is available. But obviously, India's nuclear arsenal is incomplete without a TN weapon. India's minimum credible deterrent remains untouched because the fission bomb certainly worked like a song and, therefore, the minimum part of our deterrent is fully addressed. (But) certainly, we need a thermonuclear bomb, especially for the Agni class of missiles which have a range of 3,000 to 4,000 km. It really doesn't make sense that you fly the Agni missile 4,000 km and deliver a 20 KT bomb. This will certainly not be in the category of what we call inflicting unacceptable damage on the adversary who attacks us. For sure, we need to carry out a proper thermonuclear test.
So, what changed between Oct 5 and Nov 15 of 2009 I wonder.
Last edited by NRao on 15 Nov 2009 20:48, edited 1 time in total.
There is the same consistent problem in the last 2 articles by Santhanam as in the earlier articles I used for my SRR piece. There were 3 tests on May 11 1998. All three were simultaneous and produced only one seismic signal. So anyone outside BARC/DRDO (who both presumably had close in measuring instruments to figure out individual yields of S1, S2 and S3) would have seen only one seismic signal. That means that the US agency named by Santhanam/Partha as well as the ARC would have received only one signal which represented the sum total of all three blasts. It is claimed that both these agencies detected a signal that amounted to only 20-25 kt. This figure should represent the total yield of all 3 devices on May 11.
But for some reason Santhanam and Parthasarathi choose to say that the US agency and ARC detected a " TN device yield at only 20 kt max.". But how can a US seismic agency or the ARC say that 20 kt came from the TN device? Unless they were monitoring close in they would have got only one signal.
The "consistent problem" created by Santhanam's claims is that he quotes agencies that he says got a total yield of 20-25 kt. He then goes on to say that TN was only 20 kt but the fission test S2 was 25 kt. That adds up to 40-45. Why is Santhanam doing this? Why can't he just say the TN fizzled without obfuscating with contradictory facts? That would be easier to swallow. The problem could be that there is no unequivocal proof that it fizzled, making him resort to the same roundabout statements that he says BARC is making.
Why not just say that fission atom bomb (S2) gave 20 kt and TN fizzle gave 5 kt. Or say that S2 fission gave 20-25 kt and TN gave zero yield? The man is actually obfuscating.
NRao wrote: In his article, I am not sure where Santhanam got:
[However, a few observations about this very, very interesting "120-meter deep shaft at the bottom of which the TN device was emplaced", that Santhanam now has placed on the table. This depth could produce a crater of about 70 meters radius. However, from my observations it will not be in "granite" - it will be in a alluvial soil. And, that changes a constant in the equation that is used to compute radius, etc.]
If S2( fission) device with expected yield of 12 kt was placed at the depth of ~150m, only a fool will place a device with the expected yield of 45 kt at the depth of 120m.
POK-I DOB is ~ 107m, yield stated is ~ 12kt.
Could we all please stop rehashing what could not be settled without infighting in 150 pages of acrimonious discussion? There is no other shoe to drop. No point taking metaphors literally.
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📸 Through The Lens | Traylor
Kansas Athletics staff photographer Jeff Jacobsen shares his memories of what he saw "Through the Lens" from his 23-year career with the Jayhawks.
This portrait of former KU basketball player Jamari Traylor remains a personal favorite for a variety of reasons. The biggest is that I truly loved working with Traylor. His journey to arrive at this portrait session in November 2014 made the Chicago native so intriguing to me.
The setting for this photograph had nothing to do with basketball. During the 2014 football season, Laura and I would upload and work photos at a table set up underneath the Touchdown Club at the south end of the football stadium on the KU campus. As I thought about Traylor and the upcoming portrait, I noticed how the metal braces supporting the rigging for the club above us made a dramatic crisscross design. Traylor life was one of many crisscrossing patterns as well.
Life in the "Windy City" seemed to blow Traylor all over the place. With a father in prison and his mother laid off work, Traylor, by his own admission, was not a perfect son growing up. Chris Theisen, the communications contact for the men's basketball team confirmed,
"He got into trouble often for not following the rules his mother set. He went to high school just so he could eat."
Theresa Golson kicked her son out of the house and changed the locks. Traylor seemed incapable of growing up in a city too often marred by the death of its young people.
Fortunately, Traylor met Loren Jackson, the Fenger High School boys' basketball coach. Traylor returned to school with his new mentor guiding him to basketball, a sport Traylor had never played. Traylor followed Fenger to Chicago's Julian High School and then to the IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida. That is where KU men's basketball coach, Bill Self, found the still raw 6-8 forward.
During his career from 2012-16, Traylor was a key reserve following a redshirt freshman season. His aggressive play and endearing smile won him many fans. Opening his senior speech inside Allen Fieldhouse, Traylor noted all those who helped him on his journey from the streets to his honored moment on the court.
Then he turned his attention to Self. Traylor openly spoke of his own shortcomings and the differences he and his coach overcame. Traylor focused primarily on the lessons he learned on the court and off from Self. Traylor's watery eyes remained locked on Self. Everyone sensed that a standard senior speech grew quickly into something truly memorable. Traylor told a thankful story of growth and his appreciation of Self, who meant more to him as a man than as his coach.
In all the years of senior night speeches I have heard, none proved more powerful. As I turned my camera from Traylor to Self, something happened I had never seen before. Self wept.
The portrait of Traylor ran as the cover for Rock Chalk Weekly, an online magazine produced by the Communications staff and published weekly for four years, beginning with the 2014-15 school year. Besides the cover and story photographs for the main story, the magazine provided me with opportunities to turn my attention to life inside Kansas Athletics. Through a series of behind-the-scenes or unusual game and match photographs, the Bird's Eye View section became highly regarded.
Traylor's growth from a troubled high schooler to a beloved college player led him to a professional career that continues in Japan. I was 63 years old when Rock Chalk Weekly began, and I took this portrait, an aspect of photography that has become one of my strengths.
This photo of Traylor has a special meaning. We proved that no matter our ages or circumstances, growth in our endeavors can endlessly continue. It takes hard work, dedication and perseverance. I am betting we are thankful for new opportunities to grow as a player, as a photographer, and as men. I believe we both look forward to many more successful years.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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NZ Techonverse: How To Build A PC From $300 To $3000 [1]
First published on NZ Techonverse
One of the great strengths of the PC platform is the wide range of configurations which are possible from entry level to high end workstation, or server. PC based servers use the same basic and often interchangeable components as the lowest spec system you can buy. For the point of this discussion I'll ignore single board systems like the Intel NUC or Compute card, which have embedded CPU, and go with the most basic level of system that has a CPU socket that enables you to have a choice.
I have personally built or maintained systems within various price points in this range. It's getting a little harder in these days to build a $300 system because of price rises in the Covid era due to higher shipping costs, so I'll do my best to illustrate the equivalent that might be possible today. These articles only cover the hardware. I use the free Linux operating system for nearly all of my hardware, but a system builder could choose to buy a Windows license if they wanted to use that OS.
The basic components of a PC are:
Chassis (case)Power supply. Mainboard (or motherboard as is more commonly used).CPU (microprocessor)RAM (main memory)Storage (disk)
The above are the parts that make up the chassis and its internal components (the basic "system box"). To these you will normally add a keyboard, mouse and display. You might also add some additional internal components, most commonly a card in a slot. The most basic systems don't need any cards, since most desktop mainboards these days have integrated sound, graphics and networking capabilities. It is however relatively rare to incorporate WiFi or Bluetooth into a desktop form factor mainboard, these are more commonly found in laptops, or some compact forms such as the Raspberry Pi or Intel NUC.
The cheapest way of building a new computer is to be able to recycle components from old computers. For a PC, the components that can't be recycled readily are the mainboard, CPU and RAM. This is to say that you can't take an old mainboard and put a modern CPU or RAM into it. You can't take an old CPU, or RAM, and put it into a new mainboard. These three components are the ones whose interfaces change the most frequently. RAM is the most reusable component of those three, and within each band of DDR, for example, there is a lot of interchangeability. The next least reusable component is the mainboard, which has a chipset and socket for a range of different CPU models, which however must be of a specified series. And then there is the CPU itself, which can only be used in a board that is specifically designed for it. It's hard to know which of these two latter, the CPU and the mainboard, are most or least reusable, but generally a specific CPU can fit in a range of boards, and a specific board can take a range of CPUs. When it comes to the other base components of a system, the interface standards for those components change less frequently. As examples, the common SATA standard for internal disks has been around for 20 years, PCI for internal slots for 30 years, and the VGA video standard and PS/2 mouse ports for almost 35; and all of these can be found in new boards you can buy today. Analog audio is probably the oldest standard that is today almost universal in every generation of desktop PC boards ever manufactured.
A $300 system would just use a new mainboard, CPU and RAM. The last time I built such a system was around five years ago. Mainboards and CPUs are much the same price now as they were then, whilst an equivalent amount of RAM has fallen in price. Here are the base specs and current prices of a system whose components could cost under $300. All pricing is from Ascent Computers in Wellington and all includes GST.
CPU: Intel Pentium G 6400 – $104.38
This is a Pentium that falls below a Core i3 but above a Celeron. I've chosen Pentium G models and installed them in all new systems at home for the past six years and have been pleased with its performance/price ratio. They are dual core and until recently, before the Core i3 stepped up to four cores, there was not as much performance wise between these two models. It is definitely worth the small price increase over a Celeron, but relatively few people will see meaningful benefit from the steep price increase to the Core models.
Mainboard: Asus Prime H510M-E – $132.10
When it comes to cheaper mainboards generally they only have two memory slots which limit the amount of RAM they can have added and they may have fewer of other connectors as well. This Asus board is microATX and does only have two DIMM slots but manages to have a M.2 slot so it does come up slightly in my estimation. There are VGA, HDMI and DP video interfaces (but not DVI) and four USB ports on the rear (plus basic 3 audio). Internally there are four SATA ports, and it even manages to have one PCIe x16 slot (and a pair of x1). So the main limitation at this kind of price point is generally going to be how much RAM it can have added, but also if you have a lot of SATA devices you may find there are not enough ports for these either, especially as the M.2 slot shares resources with one of the SATA ports meaning only one can be used at a time.
RAM – around $60 for 8 GB. This is a substantial amount for an entry level system these days, but it pays to put in a good amount as there is only a small additional cost compared to 4 GB, which is pretty much the smallest that you can buy. If your mainboard supports dual memory channels you may want to consider a pair of DIMMs instead of a single one, for better performance. Beware though if your system has only 2 memory slots and you are thinking of adding more RAM later – as you may end up with having to replace the old DIMMs with bigger ones and not being able to reuse them. This is the primary reason why I prefer boards with four memory slots.
So all up our entry level system using as many recycled components as possible can just come in under $300, assuming you get all the other parts free.
I have only built these types of systems a couple of times, and only because I didn't properly check out the specs or cut corners too much on cost grounds. First time was an Intel DG41RQ mainboard with a Celeron CPU. This particular board only has a single VGA output and therefore can only drive one display. I was able to add a cheap $50 display card to it for dual screens, but the Celeron CPU imposed a noticeable performance restriction. Second time was a Gigabyte H110M-S2H mainboard with only two memory slots, limiting it in practice to only 16 GB RAM, and only four SATA ports and no M.2 slot. I still use this as a media player. I did also buy a couple of Gigabyte E350 boards, which use the low power AMD E350 embedded CPU, in the mini-ITX form factor. These computers have difficulty in playing video so have limited usefulness today. I also have an Intel NUC with a Celeron low power CPU, which struggles to play some video and as a result also has a secondary role.
However I would recommend this type of system for building a media player, whether it uses mini-ITX or microATX form factors, with the mini-ITX form more suitable in applications requiring a compact PC, but would thoroughly recommend for mini-ITX that you buy a board that will take regular CPUs and a chassis that has a reasonably powerful PSU, the Inwin Chopin series chassis being an example with its 150 watt supply. My experience with NUCs and other embedded CPU boards (both AMD and Intel) have convinced me that with an embedded CPU system there is too much risk of getting something that is just not powerful enough. As detailed in previous posts I have preferred to use a microATX low profile desktop chassis to build my current low spec media player computers.
Next time around we'll have a look at a mid level system with nearly all new parts for about $1000.
Published November 29, 2021 By
Categorised as NZ Techonverse
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Summer Love (Justin Timberlake song) – Wikipedia
2007 single by Justin Timberlake
2007 individual by Justin Timberlake
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Reading: Summer Love (Justin Timberlake song) – Wikipedia
" Summer Love " received by and large cocksure applaud from music critics ; with some comparing it to his knead with his early group 'N Sync. Despite not being formally released in the United States, " Summer Love " reached count six on the Billboard Hot 100 and number one on the Billboard Pop Songs graph. It was certified platinum by the Recording Industry Association of America ( RIAA ) for selling over one million units. The song besides peaked at the clear 10 in Belgium and Canada. " summer Love " was included in the arrange number of Timberlake 's moment world tour FutureSex/LoveShow in 2007. [ 2 ]
output and release [edit ]
When composing songs for his second studio album FutureSex/LoveSounds, Timberlake went to erstwhile Justified confederate Timbaland 's studio apartment in Virginia Beach, Virginia, to begin sessions for his irregular album. [ 3 ] however, not one of them had an theme of what the album would be–no design for it and even a style. [ 4 ] " Summer Love/Set the Mood ( Prelude ) " was written and produced by Timo " Timbaland " Mosley, Nate " Danja " Hills and Timberlake himself. [ 5 ] The sung was recorded by Jimmy Douglas, while its mix was done by Douglas together with Timbaland. The keyboards were provided by Timberlake, Timbaland and Danja ; the latter besides played the drums in the single. [ 6 ] " Summer Love " was released as the sixth and final single from FutureSex/LoveSounds. The song was remixed with extra vocals by rap rapper Stat Quo. A commentator of DJ Booth commented that the collaboration will " burn up the dance floors ". He besides explained that " the collaboration is chalked full of infectious product work from none other than Timbo [ Timbaland ]. " [ 7 ]
composition [edit ]
" Summer Love " is an uptempo pop sung, with a length of 4 minutes and 13 seconds. [ 8 ] [ 9 ] According to digital sail music published at Musinotes.com by Universal Music Publishing Group, " Summer Love " was written in the key of D child, in park meter with a reasonably decelerate 96 beat-per-minute tempo. [ 8 ] Timberlake 's outspoken range in the birdcall spans from the first gear note of D4 to the high note of A5. Its orchestration consists of keyboards, drums, guitar, piano and handclaps. [ 1 ] [ 8 ] Barry Schwartz of Stylus Magazine praised the birdcall and commented that " with its good foot hesitation boom-clap and cascading choir synthline " 'Summer Love ' shows Timberlake 's best vocals on FutureSex/LoveSounds. " Schwartz further said that " the all in drops out while he sings in perfective harmony, 'Tell me how they got that reasonably little front on that pretty little frame female child ' ". [ 10 ] Lyrically, the single is about " wanting to fall in love with the lustful seasonal lover ". [ 1 ]
Justin Timberlake performing on his 2007 FutureSex/LoveShow go.
Critics reacted in a generally incontrovertible manner to " Summer Love ". Barry Schwartz of Stylus Magazine gave " summer Love " a positive review and additionally praised " its good foot reluctance boom-clap and cascading chorus ". [ 10 ] Alexis Petridis of The Guardian stated, " a blue central-casting start ballad called 'Summer Love ' is enlivened entirely by another of Timberlake 's particular announcements : 'I 'm disgusted and banal of trying to save the world. ' [ 9 ] Shaheem Reid and Jayson Rodriguez off MTV News stated that " Summer Love " alongside Timberlake 's 2007 singles " My Love " and " LoveStoned ", rocked every ipod, stereo actor and stadium during his go. [ 11 ] North by Northwestern 's Dagny Salas called " Summer Love/Set the Mood ( Interlude ) " a stand-out track on FutureSex/LoveSounds. According to him the song " exude sunlight, sex, and a sultry affair ". [ 1 ] A commentator of IGN commented that " the bulk of the album is focused on funk light, but with 'Summer Love/Set The Mood ( Prelude ) ' Timberlake and Timbaland slip into iniquity. " [ 12 ] An editor of Billboard criticized Timbaland 's production : " [ W ] hile the chase offers cunning instrumentation, Timbaland 's heavy output bridge player is so submerge that the singer is pushed to the back of the chase ". [ 13 ]
The birdcall debuted at number 74 on the US Billboard Hot 100 graph in the issue dated April 28, 2007. [ 14 ] After seven weeks on the chart, on June 9, 2007, the one reached its acme at number six. [ 15 ] The following workweek it fell to number eight and stayed on the position for four weeks, before falling to numeral nine in the return dated July 14, 2007. [ 16 ] " Summer Love " became Timberlakes 's sixth individual to reach the top 10 and stayed a sum of 20 weeks on the chart. [ 17 ] It ranked at number 39 on Billboard' south Best of 2007 – Hot 100 Songs. [ 18 ] The single debuted on the US Pop Songs chart at number 39 in the topic dated April 21, 2007, [ 19 ] and peaked at phone number one on June 23, 2007. " summer Love " became Timberlake 's fifth number one single on the US Pop Songs graph. [ 20 ] For the offspring dated July 28, 2007, the song peaked at number 24 on the US Adult Pop Songs chart. [ 21 ] It was certified platinum by the Recording Industry Association of America ( RIAA ) after one million downloads of the song were sold. [ 22 ] As of 2018, the song has sold 1.6 million copies in the area. [ 23 ] " Summer Love " peaked at number eight on the Canadian Hot 100 chart, for the issue dated June 30, 2007 and stayed on the chart for 16 weeks. [ 24 ] elsewhere, the sung attained chasten achiever. In New Zealand, " Summer Love " debuted at number 35 on August 27, 2007. [ 25 ] After thirteen weeks fluctuating on the graph it reached its acme of fifteen on November 26, 2007. The song stayed on the chart for entire of 19 weeks. [ 25 ] In Europe, the unmarried entered on six home charts. In Austria it debuted at number 52, and after two weeks the birdcall peaked at total 47. It stayed on the graph for sum of seven weeks. " summer Love " was more successful in Belgium, where it reached number six on the Flandrian Singles Chart [ 26 ] and number eight on the Wallonian Singles Chart. [ 27 ] The single entered the swedish Singles Chart at number 53 and the adjacent week it reached its peak at numeral 38. [ 28 ] In Germany, " Summer Love " charted together with " Until the end of Time " and peaked at numeral 39. It stayed on the graph for nine weeks. The song besides reached number 22 on the slovakian Singles Chart. [ 29 ]
Credits and personnel [edit ]
Personnel Credits are adapted from the liner notes of FutureSex/LoveSounds. [ 6 ]
Read more: Top 10 Best Songs of All Time
Certifications and sales for "Summer Love"
Certified units/sales
Canada (Music Canada)[37]
Gold 20,000*
United States (RIAA)[38]
Platinum 1,600,000[23]
* Sales figures based on certification alone .


Carol G free group join today and tomorrow.
Moss&Mink (furniture) free until the end of Oct 26th SLT Will cost L$ 500 after this!
Mainstore: Guests cannot see links in the messages. Please register to forum by clicking here to see links.


text:
package edu.hm.cs.jenkins.monitor.controller.web.callback;

import android.widget.ArrayAdapter;
import edu.hm.cs.jenkins.web.model.Job;

import javax.inject.Inject;
import java.util.List;

/**
 * Provides a callback for client operations which shows an error dialog
 * in case of failure.
 *
 * @author Tobias Wochinger
 */
public class JobsCallback extends ErrorAsDialogCallback<List<Job>> {

    @Inject
    private ArrayAdapter<Job> jobAdapter;

    @Override
    public final void onSuccess(final List<Job> jobs) {
        jobAdapter.clear();
        jobAdapter.addAll(jobs);
        jobAdapter.notifyDataSetChanged();
    }
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


The results of a post mortem examination into the death of Tattoo John have failed to produce a clear cause of death.
John Hicks, 56, was rushed to hospital after suffering a head injury on Tuesday (July 3). He was found unconscious near Morrisons, London Road, in Grays at around 12:50am.
He was in a critical condition and sadly died the following afternoon (Wednesday, July 4).
Essex Police opened a murder investigation and arrested a 19-year-old man the same evening, and a 47-year-old woman on Thursday (July 5) on suspicion of murder.
They have both been released on police bail until August 1.
The police await further forensic testing as part of the ongoing investigation.
Mr Hicks, also known as Tattoo John, was known by many residents in the Thurrock area, specifically Grays, Purfleet and Tilbury.
Sarah, who runs a fruit stall outside Grays Shopping Centre, said: "He was such a character. He would sit by my stall every morning.
"He gave up the drink for two months a few years ago and went back on it," continued Sarah.
"I remember when the rumours went round that he had won £6 million on the lottery, but he hadn't.
"He had an ASBO (anti social behaviour order) for the centre but he would still sneak in," she claimed whilst laughing.
One resident, who asked not to be named, said: "He's been about for such a long time and he really was harmless apart from the harm he could do to himself.
"He didn't deserve this. It's all terribly sad."
A statement from Essex Police said: "Two people arrested on suspicion of murder have been released on police bail.
"The arrests were made following the death of a man, provisionally identified as 56-year-old John Hicks.
"The results of a post mortem are inconclusive. We await further forensic testing.
"A 47-year-old woman and 19-year-old man arrested have been released on police bail to August 1.
"Mr Hicks was found in London Road in the early hours of July 3. Having suffered a head injury, he was taken to hospital, where he sadly died on the afternoon of Wednesday, July 4.
"Detectives continue to appeal for anyone with information about Mr Hicks' movements in the days before his death.
"If you have any information please call 101 quoting incident number 41 of 04/07.
You can also contact Crimestoppers charity anonymously on 0800 555 111 or use the anonymous online form at crimestoppers-uk.org"


I love the idea of Nicolas Cage and his son, Weston Cage, going to metal shows together. Weston, a true metalhead, who has a band of his own, has previously said he got his dad into bands like Darkthrone and Satyricon. Another band he hopes to get his papa into? Amon Amarth!
"The last concert we went to was Mötley Crüe in Vegas where Tommy Lee almost started a fight with me. (laughs) We went to see Lacuna Coil with Rob Zombie, they played together. That was great. I want to show him Amon Amarth, that's one band that I really want him to get into because we both have a love for Viking mythology and anything Norse. My dad has always liked Nine Inch Nails, that was always on in the house. He listens to a lot of Rob Zombie. He was also playing a lot of classical music such as Beethoven, Bach, Mozart, and Chopin. All these outstanding composers were playing throughout the house. I think that's maybe what molded me the most and brought me to wanting to compose. When I was eighteen, I binged on nonstop symphonic classical music. I did not stop listening to counterpoint and things that I wanted to branch into a little more and Beethoven helped with that."
I just love the thought of "Thunder Kiss '65" or "Dragula" blasting at the Cage household. Can you imagine what a Christmas party at the Cage household is like. If it's anything like Weston's 18th birthday party in Norway, where he invited members of Mayhem and Dimmu Borgir, it is sure to be a rager.


Another must have income generating extension for all joomla based websites. With Amazon Deals Master you can automatically display the hottest deals from Amazon in any module template position. Based on Amazon API, there is no template space too big or too small this module won't fit to automatically generate sales and revenue for any joomla administrator. There are millions of small joomla websites, but they all have the same outstanding problem, how to generate stable income for the owner or webmaster. Thinking about this huge problem, TechGasp is proud to introduce 3 great extensions that are able to generate thousands of dollars per month for any joomla webmaster, Amazon Deals Master, Groupon Master and Google Ads Master.


text:
Web Announcements (6)
Scientific and Technical Cooperation (6)
> KB > Results
The search was executed to find both database records and web content.
Result 1 to 6
Web Announcement
A global platform for sharing information about the world's biodiversity has passed a major milestone, with the publication of the one-billionth species record of where a species lives through the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF).
CBD teams up with UNEP-WCMC to build capacity for achieving the 2010 Biodiversity Target.
Communiqué: Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh joins CBD Consortium of Scientific Partners
Press Release: Missouri Botanical Garden Joins Convention on Biological Diversity Consortium of Scientific Partners - Garden Will Be Central to the Implementation of the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation.
Press Release: The South African National Biodiversity Institute the first African partner to join the Convention's Consortium of Scientific Partners on Biodiversity
Virtual Science-Policy Forum identifies key biodiversity knowledge gaps and priorities for science-policy research
Results for: ("Web Announcements") AND ("Scientific and Technical Cooperation")


Welcome, everyone to the Beauty of God the Father. If you have not read the actual encounter, please do so here. The purpose of this is to take you deeper into the experience. Enjoy!
My Friends, Papa sees you, and He is smiling!
The author of beauty HIMSELF, God our father.


text:
BooksSubjectsParenting & RelationshipsFamily RelationshipsFatherhood
The New Father: A Dad's Guide to the First Year (The New Father, 13)
$14.05High
Product Description An indispensable handbook on all aspects of fatherhood during the first 12 months, by the author of The Expectant Father. The essential handbook for all things first-year father is now fully updated and revised. Not only will new dads get a month-by-month guide to their baby's development, men reading The New Father will learn how they change, grow, and develop over the first twelve months of fatherhood. In each chapter, Brott focuses on What's Going On with the Baby; What You're Going Through; What's Going On with Your Partner; You and Your Baby; Family Matters; and more. The latest research, as well as time-honored wisdom―and humor, thanks to New Yorker cartoons and Brott's light touch―make The New Father indispensable for the modern father who doesn't want to miss a moment of his child's first year. What's new? • How technology is changing fatherhood • Changing definitions of fatherhood • Changes in the way society deals with dads―from changing tables in public men's rooms to workplace flexibility • Research proving that a father's love is just as important as a mother's • How being an involved dad rewires a man's brain • How changes in women's roles in the family affect dads and their roles • Special concerns for: young dads, older dads, at-home dads, unmarried dads, dads in same-sex couples, dads in blended families, dads of kids with special needs, and men who became dads with the help of technology • The special impact dads have on girls and boys • Specific strategies dads can use to get―and stay―involved in their children's lives • Updated resources for new fathers Not to mention new research and information on: • How to understand what your baby is telling you • Babies' amazing abilities • Baby massage--they love it! • The latest on vaccinations and healthcare • And much, much more Review "In this third of his perfectly targeted book series for the modern dad, Brott demystifies child development ... and make[s] fathers... enjoy the vital role they play in their kids lives even more. A great addition to any parenthood library." —Child magazine "Read a book? Who has time? But you'd be wise to find some so you can take advantage of a fabulous resource . . . The New Father." —Sesame Street Parents "This book would make a great gift for any new dad." —Lawrence Kutner, Ph.D., columnist, Parents magazine About the Author Armin A. Brott is a nationally recognized parenting expert and the author of ten critically acclaimed books for fathers, including The New Father: A Dad's Guide to the First Year and The New Father: A Dad's Guide to the Toddler Years, 12–36 Months. He also writes a syndicated newspaper column, Ask Mr. Dad, and hosts a weekly radio show, Positive Parenting. To learn more, visit his website, mrdad.com. Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved. Introduction Nobody really knows how or when it started, but one of the most widespread—and most cherished—myths about child-rearing is that women are naturally more nurturing than men, that they are instinctively better at the parenting thing, and that men are nearly incompetent. The facts, however, tell a very different story. A significant amount of research has proven that men are inherently just as nurturing and responsive to their children's needs as women. What too many men (and women) don't realize is that to the extent that women are "better" parents, it's simply because they've had more practice. In fact, the single most important factor in determining the depth of long-term father-child relationships is opportunity. Basically, it comes down to this: "Having children makes you no more a parent than having a piano makes you a pianist," writes author Michael Levine in Lessons at the Halfway Point. Men and women parent differently in a wide variety of ways: • Dads tend to play more with their children than mothers do, and that play tends to be more rough-and-tumble and more unpredictable than
Abbeville Press
It's not a good time to buy now, there's a 61% probability this price will decrease. Our advice is to Watch it.
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text:
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Tag: fairy
Beth's Book Reviews: Forgotten Things
Forgotten Things
Written By: Stephen Mullaney-Westwood
A little about the author (taken from his Amazon.com author profile):
Stephen has tasted the earth from the depths of his soul, grown anew and stretched his branches towards the sun, with roots firm and strong in their darkness…
Born in Hertfordshire, England, he had a hard time adjusting and finding his place in the world. His sensitive and artistic nature outcast him somewhat, and his mental health suffered throughout those teenage and young adult years.
But, ultimately, it was a journey and writing has always accompanied him along the way.
Now more positive, older, and wiser at the grand age of 40 he writes with a potent message which comes from a deep love of the natural world.
To write, and to breathe the words of nature is the place where Stephen belongs, doing something he truly loves.
The faeries and spirits of the woods have always asked to be heard, and Stephen has offered to be their voice.
His first release is 'Unforgotten Tales' a collection of thirteen short folktale style stories, modern fables and fairy tales, written in a method now often forgotten. Intentionally allegorical, darkly twisting while yet enlightening and inspirational.
Fairy tales are one thing…faeries, are another.
Find Stephen at:
http://mullaneywestwood.com/
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCR2K7T5hgh5L6E9ux979OZQ
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Stephen-Mullaney-Westwood/1452647591654264?fref=ts
Publisher: CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform; 1 edition (July 28, 2015)
Shipping Weight: 1.1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review: 4.9 out of 5 stars See all reviews (8 customer reviews)
Book Synopsis: 'Forgotten Things' is a novel of nature in contrast; sinister, beautiful, wise and innocent. With an otherworldly twist it explores the importance of influences; of growing up, whilst still looking backwards.
We see through the eyes of one man recounting the bitter sweet memories and adventures of his childhood. His love for the woods… his draw to them… but also his fear.
Similar to a classic ghost story the 'horror' is subtle and unnerving, while the 'fantasy' is simply a glimpse into another reality.
The little people are our antagonists, spoken of in whispers and presented in their true form; age old beings which transpose boundaries- taken seriously and sitting in mysterious juxtaposition with the secular world.
I'm not going to lie to you, I had a difficult time with the beginning of the book. Mr. Mullaney-Westwood's writing style is not typical of anything I had previously enjoyed reading and it took me three tries to get past page two. I even messaged the author at one point and asked him about his choice of voice and use of incredibly in-depth descriptive passage. There are several places that tell us the showing instead of showing us the setting (did that sentence make sense? I know what I meant so if you don't, ask…I may or may not be able to remember). However, I'm glad that I pushed on and got into the meat of the book.
Our narrator and main character are both named Adam Briggs. In fact, they are both the same Adam, approximately a lifetime of adulthood apart. The narrator, a grown Adam, is remembering the year he turned twelve and moved with his family to Grandfather's little cottage near the wood. We follow his twelve year old self as Adam meets Grandpa for the first time, navigates a new place and his same old parents…and learns a bit more than he expected to about things that aren't supposed to be real.
The personification of natural elements, the conversations between Adam and his Grandfather, and the peeks into the world behind the 'veil of reality' are all beautifully rendered.
Life becomes very surreal when a dream becomes reality.
The dream here is both that of country life and Adam's new knowledge of the Little People that is being fed by his newly adored Grandpa. Coming into this new life as a sort-of brow beaten, mother run twelve year old city boy, Adam is discovering all sorts of new things coming into his world. Let's talk about the other characters for a moment:
Mother – Adam's mother, Annie Briggs, is Grandpa Finn's daughter and seems to be his direct opposite. While Adam wishes to explore and use his imagination fueled new country knowledge, Annie is begrudging in her approach to living again in Cornwall. Having moved to her childhood home in order to help her ailing, aging father, Ann is cold and reserved throughout the story as she lectures, begs, and hopes that her child will not be pulled in to her father's world.
Father – Thom Briggs, the enigmatic, whipped husband to Annie. He is very work centric and distracted for most of the scenes in which we find him.
Grandpa Finn Penrose – Ann Briggs' father, Grandpa is an aged dreamer and firm believer in the Little People. His illnesses may keep him from wandering the wood with his Grandson now, but he is a veritable treasure trove of information and support as Adam embarks down this new path.
Martin – The first boy from his new school that Adam meets, Martin is sensitive, shy, and as fond of the coastline as Adam is of the wood.
Josh – Large framed boy, sporty and protective. Martin's best friend and, soon enough, Adam's as well. The three boys are incredibly close and adventure together throughout the story.
"Old Bob's Wood" – The local name for the woods behind Grandpa's home. Adam becomes intimately acquainted with the woods, and their inhabitants, throughout the book.
There are animals, there are ghosts, there are mysteries, and there are hard lessons to learn. Friendships, family dynamic, and growing up are all part of life and, unfortunately, sometimes twists and turns make us get banged up a bit. Forgotten Things weaves it all beautifully together. This book combines old world charm, the 'truth' on the Fey world, and a coming of age story that will keep you entranced and pushing forward to learn more. Do not let the density of the story, the deep well of truths hidden in what some will call 'fairy stories' stop you from picking this up. Mullaney-Westwood has put together a story in which the characters are real and you forget that you're just an audience member.
Character Believability: 4
Flow and Pace: 3.8
Reader Engagement: 3.5
Reader Enrichment: 4
Reader Enjoyment: 3.8
Overall Rate: 3.82
Let Your Friends Know
Author estyreePosted on January 6, 2016 January 6, 2016 Categories Coming SoonTags fairy, Fantasy, Reading3 Comments on Beth's Book Reviews: Forgotten Things
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Anyway, the first ever TRIKSTARS - Masters of Trickery made its nail biting debut to over 2000 people yesterday (4th December 2015) at Sunway Lagoon's Amphitheatre where some of my blogger friends, my little girl and I were also there to enjoy the Premiere night...and we were pretty much quite blown away by the world class magic, illusions, comedy and musical. TRIKSTARS -Masters of Trickery is now happening from 5 December – 20 December 2015.
Amongst the many talents that Dion and Randall International scouted in Las Vegas, one of them was The Wizardry of Phelston Jones, a great magician that captivates audiences with magic and comedy as he playfully picks on the audience to produce mesmerizing one-of a kind illusions.
He definitely looked like a cartoon character and his tricks were pretty hilarious and set the audiences laughing... at least until the last one... where he blew his own head off...which half shocked the younger kids..
Then there was the King Charles Troupe, a group of young men who play an unbelievable game of high-energy basketball on unicycles in a "Razzle Dazzle" style – a magnificent display of one-wheeled wonderment as they dribble, pass, shoot, and weave their way through the world's wittiest, wackiest game of basketball!
All the way from Netherlands, TRIKSTARS brought the World Champions of Magic and winners of numerous highly coveted Magic Awards, Magus Utopia who introduced a darker edge to the show with Nightmares – a new era of Magic with a unique combination of storytelling, strong visual and magic.
Then you will be wowed by Sebastian & Kristina from Hungary, a multi prestigious award winning elite artistry for the art of dance & magical transformations.
I seriously cannot believe how fast they change their clothes... it all happens in less then 15 seconds...!!!
This extravagant two-hour performance will be wowing audiences of all ages with 14 shows running every Wednesday to Monday from 5 to 20 December 2015 at 7.30pm.
Ticket prices for TRIKSTARS are available starting from RM70 for children and RM94 for adults. Hurry and get your tickets now at ticketcharge.com.my.
The TRIKSTARS show is proudly sponsored by Coca Cola, Nestle, Milo and 100 Plus.
combining sports and magic, with class.. genius!
Oh nice! The whole show really looks nice. How I wish I get to watch this as well.
That. Bra. Leaves. Me. Speechless.
I wonder how the victim feel at that time.
But wow! I love magic show too!
Looks entertaining. My Little Angels sure enjoy the show very much.
So fast! Efficient as always. My girl love the show a lot!
The whole show seems very exciting and magical. Keeps you wondering what's next!


text:
Q: SQL Server TempDB transaction log Issue I've worked with SQL Server for some time and I understand the various issues that one can run into with TempDB. But, with this latest issue, if I have my issue figured out correctly, is it possible that a statement with a BEGIN TRANSACTION that uses tempdb tables/objects that is left hanging (no commit) can hold the tempdb LOG file "open" and not allow tempdb to clear its own log? This leads to the tempdb log file eventually filling up and causing issues in the SQL Server.  I find this hard to believe that there isn't some sort of safeguard in place within SQL Server that would somehow allow the tempdb LOG to not be affected If not, I find this disturbing…

A: TempDB is no different than any other database.  All actions must be logged, and log space will only be reused once the log records for a given transaction have either been committed or rolled back.
As @KrisGruttemeyer said in a comment, you can find out what type of action is causing the transaction log to grow by looking at:
select d.name, d.log_reuse_wait_desc
from sys.databases d
where d.name = 'tempdb';

This will likely show you either 'active transaction' or 'nothing' for tempdb.  If you see active transaction you know some transaction is open and has not been committed yet.  You can see what transactions are open by looking at various system DMVs including, sys.dm_tran_active_transactions, among others.
For a much more in-depth look at what is causing your tempdb to grow, check out this question.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange