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What the BES face to face poll tells us about what went wrong
One of the key bits of evidence on why the polls got it wrong has today popped into the public domain – the British Election Study face to face survey. The data itself is downloadable here if you have SPSS or Stata, and the BES team have written about it here and here. The BES has two elements – an online panel study, going back to the same people before, during and after the election campaign, and a post-election random face-to-face study, allowing comparison with similar samples going back to the 1964 BES. This is the latter part.
The f2f BES poll went into the field just after the election and fieldwork was conducted up until September (proper random face-to-face polls take a very long time). On the question of how people voted in the 2015 election the topline figures were CON 41%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 3%. These figures are, of course, still far from perfect – the Conservatives and Labour are both too high, UKIP too low, but the gap between Labour and Conservative – the problem that bedevilled all the pre-election polls, is much closer to reality.
This is a heavy pointer towards the make-up of samples having been a cause of the polling error. If the problems had been caused by people incorrectly reporting their voting intentions ("shy Tories") or people saying they would when they did not then it is likely that exactly the same problems would have shown up in the British Election Study (indeed, given the interviewer effect those problems could have been worse). The difference between the BES f2f results and the pre-election polls suggests that the error is associated with the thing that makes the BES f2f so different from the pre-election polls – the way it is sampled.
As regular readers will know, most published opinion polls are not actually random. Most online polls are conducted using panels of volunteers, with respondents selected using demographic quotas to model the British public as closely as possible. Telephone polls are quasi-random, since they do at least select randomised numbers to call, but the fact that not everyone has a landline and that the overwhelming majority of people do not answer the call or agree to take part means the end results is not really close to a random sample. The British Election Study was a proper randomised study – it randomly picked consistencies, then addresses within in them, then a person at that address. The interviewer then repeatedly attempted to contact that specific person to take part (in a couple of cases up to 16 times!). The response rate was 56%.
Looking at Jon Mellon's write up, this ties in well with the idea that polls were not including enough of the sort of people who don't vote. One of the things that pollsters have flagged up in the investigations of what went wrong is that they found less of a gap in people's reported likelihood of voting between young and old people than in the past, suggesting polls might no longer be correctly picking up the differential turnout between different social groups. The f2f BES poll did this far better. Another clue is in the comparison between whether people voted, and how difficult it was to get them to participate in the survey – amongst people who the BES managed to contact on their first attempt 77% said they had voted in the election, among those who took six or more goes only 74% voted. A small difference in the bigger scheme of things, but perhaps indicative.
This helps us diagnose the problem at the election – but it still leaves the question of how to solve it. I should pre-empt a couple of wrong conclusions that people will jump to. One is the idea polls should go back to face-to-face – this mixes up mode (whether a poll is done by phone, in person, or online) with sampling (how the people who take part in the poll are selected). The British Election Study poll appears to have got it right because of its sampling (because it was random), not because of its mode (because it was face-to-face). The two do not necessarily go hand-in-hand: when face-to-face polling used to be the norm in the 1980s it wasn't done using random sampling, it was done using quota sampling. Rather than asking interviewers to contact a specific randomly selected person and to attempt contact time and again, interviewers were given a quota of, say, five middle-aged men, and any old middle-aged men would do.
That, of course, leads to the next obvious question of why don't pollsters move to genuine random samples? The simple answers there are cost and time. I think most people in market research would agree a proper random sample like the BES is the ideal, but the cost is exponentially higher. This isn't more expensive in the sense of "well, they should pay a bit if they want better results" type way – it's more expensive as in a completely difference scale of expense, the difference between a couple of thousand and a couple of hundred thousand. No media outlet could ever justify the cost of a full scale random poll, it's just not ever going to happen. It's a shame, I for one would obviously be delighted were I to live in a world where people were willing to pay hundreds of thousands of pounds for polls, but such is life. Things like the BES only exist because of big funding grants from the ESRC (and at some elections that has need to be matched by grants from other charitable trusts).
The public opinion poll industry has always been about a finding a way of measuring public opinion that can combine accuracy with being affordable enough for people to actually buy and speedy enough to react to events, and whatever the solutions that emerge from the 2015 experience will have those same aims. Changing sampling techniques to make them resemble random sampling more could, of course, be one of the routes that companies look at. Or controlling their sampling and weighting in ways to better address shortcomings of the sampling. Or different ways of modelling turnout, like ComRes are looking at. Or something else yet unspeculated. Time will tell.
The other important bit of evidence we are still waiting for is the BES's voter validation exercise (the large scale comparison of whether poll respondents' claims on whether they voted or not actually match up against their individual records on the marked electoral register). That will help us understand a lot more about how well or badly the polls measured turnout, and how to predict individual respondents' likelihood of voting.
Beyond that, the polling inquiry team have a meeting in January to announce their initial findings – we shall see what they come up with.
Filed under: Methodology, What went wrong
154 Responses to "What the BES face to face poll tells us about what went wrong"
The Other Howard
I agree it is a waste of time looking at the polls headline figures but from the detailed questions on leadership and the economy you can accurately gauge who is going to win the election as i did this year. So the polls are not a total waste of time.
It all pales into irrelevance this morning Howard.
Amber Star
@ OldNat
Yes, I think that regional polls probably would work better – for the EU referendum & the next GE. But things do change so it might be just a short-term feature of elections that will reverse itself out over time.
Fascinating look at the polling disparities. While AW makes the sensible point that this wasn't about methodology per se, but about the appropriateness of sampling, it may well be that the two issues are interlinked, in that certain methods could exacerbate the sampling issue. Lots for the polling industry to worry about, not least the point that definitively fixing sampling issues by proper randomised sampling just isn't possible.
On other matters;
Very interesting to see the first signs that Merkel's era may be coming to a close. On Thursday, Schauble talked of the immigration crisis being 'like an avalanche set off by a careless skier', with by inference, Merkel being the one going off piste. Her call in the summer that Germany would welcome everyone has proved disastrous, (although it is arguable that the crisis was going to happen anyway) as it has given a green light to anyone trying to get into the EU. Because there are open borders, Merkel had effectively unilaterally announced a new open door policy on behalf of all EU member states.
The pressure is now on in Germany, as they struggle to absorbed 10,000 new migrants a day, and patience seems to be wearing thin. On top of this, we can be fairly sure that, rightly or wrongly, yesterday's events in Paris will be used by some to build up the sense that Europe is under seige. A borderless union seems to be increasingly untenable, for security and population management reasons.
If Merkel is about to fall, this could have substantial implications in the UK. Merkel has been Cameron's greatest source of political cover for the forthcoming referendum, and were she to fall, it's very unclear how amenable any successor might be to Cameron's aims and political needs.
Has anyone tried "Banner Add" polling?
Add are selected on the basis of relevance based on browser history…..all be it not that accurately at present.
If who though a particular hard to reach demographic used Argos or Lidl then a quick "If there was an election tomorrow" on their web page might give you an idea of what those people thought.
I am not sure what the cost would be compared to a panel but it might be a way to see if panel results might be skewed.
I am not suggesting it as an alternative to panel or traditional polls just something extra!
I agree with your last paragraph but I do not see it as a threat to the UK. If she were to be replaced with somebody who failed to support Cameron and he is unable to get a package acceptable to the UK then I would expect the UK to vote to leave, and about time IMO.
Unless memory fails me, Gernany has been planning to absorb about 500,000 migrants a year.
The UK international migration figures (ONS August 2015) are:
Net long-term international migration = +330,000 (up 94,000 from YE March 2014), in the year ending (YE) March 2015.
Immigration = 636,000 (up 84,000), in the year ending (YE) March 2015.
Emigration = 307,000 (down 9,000), in the year ending (YE) March 2015
The current "10,,000 a day" avalanche to Gernany is generally reported as temporary, and has indeed overwhelmed immigration reception facilities. A drop to let's say 2,000 to 3,000 a day may be what Germany anticipates happening over the next few months, and would be tolerable and what, I understand, Merkel thinks is needed to balance Germany's labour needs and balance in its demography and age-dependence.
Maybe you haven't seen the last of the Market era.
For comparison, a total of 1,465,000 people immigrated to Germany in 2014, and net immigration was 550,000.
So, one has to assume that the crisis is in coping with an increase from say 4,000 to 10,000 people immigrants a day.
John Regone
These findings have been the logical answer from day one. The last polls including those on election day showed Lab and Con neck and neck but the exit poll came close to the actual result. This suggested the lack of a late swing explaining the variance, also why would people be more shy about voting intention to a pollster than they would to an exit poll? The thought of Shy Tories never really held much ground to me, especially given the fact that they were comfortable stating who they voted for in 2010. The results suggested an error in sample that did not exist in 2010 so what is behind the change? Is it that first time voters in 2015 are more engaged than those of 2010 and more Conservative? Did a large number of non voters in 2010 suddenly vote Conservative? Did a large number of Labour voters in 2010 suddenly not vote? The answer has to be one of these? Personally I was not surprised by the result, we could guess that UKIP would do well and LibDems badly, it did not follow that UKIP would pick up Con voters nor that LibDems would move to Lab. I think this showed up in the final results. The other aspect was that the impact of tactical voting unravelled and this is to the benefit of the Tories and means a larger swing that usual is required to bring Lab to power. I believe 2020 will be impacted by the EU referendum and how the various parties campaign. Do not write off UKIP as they could emerge from a losing Leave campaign as the new SNP.
Wings has another Panelbase Full Scottish poll – results will come out over the next couple of days.
So far –
Scottish Independence – Yes 49% : No 51% (previous Panelbase polls in July & Sept were Yes 47% : No 53%).
and "5.6% of general-election SNP voters are *considering* voting SNP+Labour for Holyrood."
"Do not write off UKIP as they could emerge from a losing Leave campaign as the new SNP."
While that is not impossible, UKIP have a harder task to be seen in that role. The SNP had won the two previous Holyrood elections, and had built a significant level of trust among the electorate.
UKIP would need to break through under an FPTP system, with no demonstrable competence – even at council level.
It took the SNP 40 years, from their initial jump forward in the 70s, to get to their current position.
For a "new" party, a decade can be a bloody long time in politics! :-)
I just got sight of a copy of Gallup's British political opinions 1937-2000 from the reference desk of my local library, with "The 1975 referendum" (butler & kitzinger) and "full-hearted consent" (goodhart) on order as interlibrary loans. I'll apply for a British Library reader card later tonight. I believe the phrase is "f*** yeah"…:-)
David colby
The figures for turnout in the f2f are 77% and 74% but the actual turnout was 66% so we are 10% adrift before even looking at how someone voted. Isn't this a massive and insurmountable discrepancy? How do you 'adjust' for that?
Strangely, the gap between the two main parties has corrected itself. Does this mean that the people who lied about whether they might vote at election time have now switched their second lie about HOW they might vote (from "lab" to "con")?
Or are a whole new set of people, who were honest at election time and seemed unlikely to vote now lying about whether they voted… and are they leaning 'con'?
"Strangely, the gap between the two main parties has corrected itself"
Doesn't seem that strange. Polls which use recalled prior voting as a weighting factor now use 2015, rather than 2010, data.
True, but we know from the 2015 figures that one in ten are lying.
Wings Panelbase poll
"Do you feel that you personally understand Labour's position on Trident?"
Yes, I understand – they OPPOSE renewing it: 12%
Yes, I understand – they SUPPORT renewing it: 18%
No, I don't understand what their position is: 70%
LABOUR VOTERS ONLY
@ Old Nat
It's a shame they didn't ask a salience question about Trident. Perhaps the high level of don't-knows = don't-cares.
Why don't you try to be a bit more polite?
I actually stopped reading & commenting for a long time because of Old Nat's partisan nonsense – quite a few people noticed I'd gone 'missing'.
I really like this site; it's a gem & Anthony is amazing. But it's ruined for me by Old Nat. :-(
@ Amber
I have really missed you and your insights. Take ON's advice and ignore his less kindly posts. I do understand though. It can be really quite oppressive to have someone always jumping on your posts.
You (and Stu) are being naughty (again). If you look at the actual question that was asked in the Panelbase poll:
http://wingsoverscotland.com/a-deliberate-vagueness/#more-78657
asking Do you feel that you personally understand Labour's position on Trident?
it came with an introduction of positively Wellsian length:
Last month the UK Labour conference passed a motion committing the party to renewing the Trident nuclear weapons system. However, this month the Scottish Labour Party conference passed a motion committing the party to opposing the renewal.
Scottish leader Kezia Dugdale and most of UK Labour's shadow cabinet support renewal, while UK leader Jeremy Corbyn and shadow Scottish Secretary Ian Murray oppose it.
It's not so much asking someone's opinion as testing their English comprehension. Of course people are going to be confused about Labour's position after reading that.
Incidentally it's probably also the time to make the point that UK Labour's commitment to 'renewing' Trident isn't as clear-cut as that. It was previous policy and was hidden away in a long general policy document that was approved, but it wasn't debated or voted on as such and there's no guarantee that renewal won't be explicitly rejected at a future Conference.
I suspect Corbyn and his backers were happy to avoid another big row so early on and give them time to square the Unions and maybe convince the public (polling on nuclear weapons is more ambiguous than some think). But for the 'moderates' to declare permanent and perpetual victory on this is a bit premature.
I doubt that Amber had seen the introduction. I certainly hadn't.
It would certainly have been interesting to have seen how people responded, without the intro (though it does seem to be accurate).
The issue did get extensive coverage in the Scottish media – though how much of such coverage gets through to people is another matter.
Amber's question of salience still matters, however.
That's not just an issue of the importance of the issue itself, but to what degree the views of a particular party on it are deemed to be of importance.
Worth noting, however, that 39% of Labour voters DO understand the Labour position on Trident – they just don't agree as to what it is.
I hadn't realised you were so sensitive. political campaigning must be a constant trial for you.
I don't come here to campaign & neither should you.
My best advice, to save you pain, is not to engage with those who have differing loyalties to yours, and just to ignore any posts from such folk.
Nor do I come here to ignore people. What would be the point of that?
Why can't you just behave like the vast majority of long-term 'members' do & discuss the issues instead of always trying to score points off people?
@ Syzygy
We rarely agree, but on this issue I am at one with you.
On balance, I'm with @Amberstar.
@Oldnat's post of 10.51pm was irrelevant, partisan, and with no point other than to irritate. It was the kind of post that spoils the site.
In life, if you find you keep getting into the same kind of argument with lots of different people, it's time to realise that it's you that is doing something wrong, not everyone else. And this is from someone who rather likes @Oldnat.
As ever, it is not the actual event that defines the politics of the future, but the reactions to those events.
I suspect most people would agree that the west's reaction to the 9/11 attacks can be characterised as falling somewhere between poor and utterly disastrous, and the immediate reactions to the Paris events seem to be pointing Europe towards a hardening of attitudes.
The timing of this is critical, coming as it does, alongside the migrant crisis and the border issues that this has raised. Links are already being made between the humanitarian crisis and the EU response, and security. The DT reports that one of the killers came in on a false refugee passport via Greece – a perfect gift to the right wing thinkers who want to close down borders and cut Europe off.
Beyond the knee jerk responses of sealing ourselves off, rounding up suspects and initiating more drone strikes and airborne bombing missions, no one seem to be talking about how we extracate ourselves from the mess that western policies have made in the Middle East, and how we manage our foreign relationships with those countries in a complex tangle of oil, ethnic and religious divides, and historic emnity.
The response will be all important, but to date, there is little evidence that we are about to get something right.
Anthony Wells
SYZYGY – "It can be really quite oppressive to have someone always jumping on your posts."
Exactly. This is one of things I struggle with the most in trying to encourage people of all political backgrounds to feel comfortable taking part – people who jump upon the comments of anyone with a viewpoint with which they disagree with annoying, niggley or sarcastic responses. Syzygy has described it better than I could.
Can people please try and be welcoming to all, and try and keep to the SPIRIT of the site. If you are always popping up to have points that just happen to co-incide with a viewpoint of a particular party or cause, and reserve all your unpleasant or unwelcoming comments for people supporting a political party at odds with that you're not really trying…
@"The response will be all important, but to date, there is little evidence that we are about to get something right."
………or that Iran, Iraq, Russia, Syria, Egypt, Turkey, Libya, Saudi Arabia, ………………….are "about to get something right".???
I remember watching with horror tv footage of Shia chastising themselves with chains to the point of bleeding.
One sometimes feels as though , at times like this, we do the same-without the inconvenience of the chains.
If that is all we continue to do then we might as well get the chains-we are going to require an awful lot of self chastising to atone for future dead at the hands of these people.
Dr Adam Spencer
Might another reason for the better accuracy of the BES be the fact that it is an academic study. Respondents are approached by folk from leading universities with ESRC funding. Perhaps respondents then are more likely to be truthful, minimising the shy Tory count?
@Colin – For the avoidance of doubt, as they say, I'm not suggesting that 'we' in the west get things wrong while 'they' (everybody else) gets it right – far from it.
My long held view, however, is that we in the west make claims to moral superiority through the appliance of a more or less secular form of justice, based on the rule of law, liberal values of human rights and tolerance, underpinned by a democratic system that aims to allow different opinions to be heard and decided upon by all citizens. It is never perfect, but as a set of ideals it beats the pants of any other system of living, in my view.
Far too often we have ignored our own principles when dealing with external threats, and in doing so, I believe that we weaken ourselves.
Sometimes we need to have the courage to stick to our principles, even if it might seem that this brings short term risks, as in the long run, the only true defence we have is to occupy and keep the moral high ground. If we do this, our system will prevail, and others crumble, but it isn't always quick and it can be a painful process.
@Colin/Alec
There comes a time when the self-loathing has to stop and rather than continually chastise ourselves in the West for foreign policy errors that come back to haunt us, with some justification it is even argued by the extreme self-loathers, we need to reassess what's going on here. There is a brand of extreme Islamism that festers a burning hatred of the secular and liberal way of life and the West embodies this for them. This hatred can be aggravated by social grievances, some genuine, some self-nurtured, but it's essentially a religious and moral obsession for them. This provides both the hatred and the justification for the violence. How else could the killers in Paris on Friday have continued their slaughter so long after any vestige of humanity within them would have screamed at them to stop? It's depravity and brutality off the scale and it's easy to categorise it as madness, but there was a rationale behind what they did. A religious self-justification and a burning hatred.
That is a frightening cocktail of motives that goes way beyond mere retaliation for Western bombing campaigns in Syria and Iraq. Those are proxy motivations for an evil that is abroad now. It's out there, embedded and imported, in most Western societies and I have no idea how it can be dealt with.
How the French people react to the horror visited upon them on Friday will be more important than how the politicians shape policy in the Middle East.
If your final para. means what I think it means-eternal turning of the other cheek from our "moral high ground" , then I certainly can agree that it will be a "painful process".
And it will never end-because they don't recognise our "moral high ground". As you will see from their statement after Paris-they were killing decadent westerners in a capital city of vice. And mark this-not killing & running away, but Killing by Self Suicide.
Waving our Moral High Ground at these people actually makes them MORE determined.
IMO we need to destroy IS in Syria & Iraq by whatever means coalition military prescribe. We should demand that regional countries join the battle-or forever be identified with appeasement of the fanatics in their own religion.
I recognise the conflict between our dislike of Assad's war on his own people , and Russia's recent intervention on his side.
But first things first-and that means responding with overwhelming force against DAESH
catmanjeff
Terrorism evolves out of a combination of factors that feed it
I think the approach you describe guarantees the source of terrorism would continually topped up, and there would be no end to it.
We need to end the proxy wars in the Middle East – stopping Iran and Saudi Arabia funding groups outside their boundaries. The US and Russia need to keep their noses out, alongside other western nations.
The region itself needs to fix it's own problems. I have no doubt that ISIS will never stand down, so the region needs to eliminate by it's own forces.
A western enforced solution will never fix anything, only breed more hate and terrorism.
By not getting involved we defend our citizens by default.
If the electorate are keen to for us 'to do something' ie bomb/engage in warfare, our leaders need to remind voters this is road to hell.
Ah- appeasement .
Has it ever offered protection from the Madman?
( A rhetorical question-I think we have reached the predictable crux of disagreement)
I totally support your stance on this. We are at war already so appeasement is not an option, nor is there a peace option, as these people have no interest in peace, until the whole World bows down to their awful ideology.
John Chanin
@Spencer
If only that were true! Social researchers would have a much easier life. In reality market researchers (and marketers pretending to be market researchers) have made life much more difficult by pissing off most of the public.
Neil A
You're falling for the propaganda, frankly.
Islamists hated the West and all it stood for hundreds of years ago, and never stopped. 9/11 wasn't born out of Western Intervention. It was born out of the idea that having non-Muslims and urggh, women who aren't slaves in a Muslim country is heresy.
I sometimes think people need to re-check their calendars and remind themselves that Afghanistan and Iraq were a result of 9/11 and not the cause of it.
Even if we pulled out every plane, every drone, every advisor, every heavy machine gun and every penny piece that we are currently using to "intervene" in the Middle East, none of this would stop. Even if Islamists were permitted to obliterate Israel and kill or deport every Jew, none of this would stop. Even if we successfully removed all forms of discrimination against Muslims living in the UK and they enjoyed equal opportunities, rights, respect and representation with all other groups here, none of this will stop.
These people honestly believe that they have a moral duty under their religion to destroy everything in the world that doesn't accord with their own interpretation of its tenets. That means killing every homosexual, every adulterer, every democrat, every non-Abrahamic religious believer, every apostate Muslim who doesn't follow their version of "the Truth" . ON THE PLANET.
This isn't just about what goes on in the ME, and what our governments and armed forces get up to (or not). That is just window-dressing for a much deeper issue.
The real battle is within Islam, not within the ME.
@Catmanjeff
Isn't Colin's approach the one which had to be adopted to remove the idea of Aryan supremacy from the world? I don't see that that idea has had much traction since.
Colin – "IMO we need to destroy IS in Syria & Iraq by whatever means coalition military prescribe. We should demand that regional countries join the battle-or forever be identified with appeasement of the fanatics in their own religion."
Careful. The frontline jihadis might be religious nutjobs, but what is the agenda of those in control of them?
They're trying to provoke a bombing response. Why? Is it really to start the end-of-days-apocalypse/rapture predicted in their books? Or are they trying to spike the oil price?
ISIS funds itself by selling oil from it's captured fields at a discount, through middle-men in Turkey (the same ones used by Saddam to get round sanctions). At the start of last year the oil price was over $100, so even with a 15% discount, they'd have got $85 per barrel. Now it's below $50. If your only revenue source has halved you are in trouble, especially if you are trying to form a state and hold territory.
We also know from the Bush era that whenever there was military activity in the middle east, the markets took fright, and the oil price spiked. So they're trying to create a spike. They may lose some territory temporarily in Syria, but the extra dosh they get will help them consolidate in Northern Iraq.
I expect the Saudis and Qataris would quite like us to use our blood and treasure bombing Syria and spiking the oil price too.
I think all Europeans should reinstall border checks. I think we should threaten Turkey with sanctions if they don't clamp down on the middlemen selling ISIS oil.
Above all we should be trying to drive the oil price further down. Osborne should raise fuel duty (he'll get climate change brownie points and extra revenue for the treasury as a bonus). Obama should be offering cheap loans to his frackers to keep them going.
We shouldn't get drawn into a bombing campaign – it doesn't work, as Afghanistan proved over a decade. The only thing that works is cutting off the money. Afghanistan is a mess because we couldn't cut off the opium money. However we should have more luck with oil. The Soviet Union collapsed within a few years of the oil price dropping – because it was their only source of external revenue. ISIS is in a similar economic position. They can't earn money any other way, and all their donors are oil dependent too.
It's hard taking the patient route, but it's the only thing that works.
I am actually in France right now (Nord Pas de Calais) with a mixture of French and English friends. There is virtually no sign of anything different or untoward that was not there before and people are about there business in a normal way. People are no more or less cheerful than usual.
Anarchists Unite
Well, we managed to hold off Godwin's Law (with generous interpretations) for a good four hours of inconsistent posting – not bad I must say.
@Candy
I don't know if I agree with all of your analysis of the situation, but on this point I would substantively agree.
I would be very surprised if Osborne is not rejigging his Autumn statement to increase the home office budget, possibly also with a nod to the possibility of extra defence expenditure should the need arise. This of course leaves even less room for changing his stance on welfare. Following the tragic events in France, people will want their government to keep them safe and I am sure the polls will reflect that.
@Candy,
I'm not advocating, but Western military intervention to deny ISIL the use of oil fields might get around your issue?
My previous post should have read "their". Damn phone.
What is needed is some clear thought. You can get rid of the likes of Assad or you can rid of ISIS, but not both.
If you have true democracy in Middle Eastern countries, they will elect religious conservatives like the Muslim Brotherhood. That is because the population are mostly religious conservatives. The same is true in non-Muslim religious conservative countries like India or the south of the USA.
The sensible Western interest is stabilise the states, even if means that we di not have pro-Western leaders installed.
@Anarchists Unite – "I don't know if I agree with all of your analysis of the situation"
Tacitus said Pecunia nervus belli – money drives wars. Nothing has changed in 2000 odd years.
If you look at other conflicts, it was always a change in funding that brought resolution.
Cuba for example was funded by the Soviet Union, and after it's collapse by Venezuela. But suddenly this year there was a thawing of relations with the USA. Is it really because of the Pope's help – or is it because the oil price has collapsed and Venezuela is no longer sending them money and they need another source?
Vietnam was funded by China. Now that China is picking on them, they've rushed into America's arms, signing the TPP that puts them under American regulatory control. Lyndon Johnson is probably thinking, damn, why didn't I think of the trade angle. Money talks again.
Iran has put out feelers to the Americans too. Is it a coincidence that the oil price has collapsed and they need to be able to have sanctions lifted to allow them to export other stuff (such as food)?
Even the American war of revolution wouldn't have happened without French funding. According to wiki the French spent 1.3 billion livres on war costs and it contributed to the collapse of the French economy.
Finally – when the Russian rebels downed that plane over Ukraine killing over 200 Europeans, we didn't bomb Russia, we applied sanctions. And that's the correct response, because it's squeezing Russian finances hard. We should take the same approach with this incident – look to squeeze the participants financially. And then wait for the collapse.
I'm not thinking of bombing-at least not just bombing.
I'm thinking of removing their lifeboat-their territory-sweeping them out of Syria & Iraq with an army ( and bombing).
We know it can be done-the Kurds just did it in Sinjar with coalition air support.
Now I know all the arguments on the geo-political front.
If you let the Kurds do it, you upset Iraq & Turkey.
If you let Shia Iran & Russia do it-you support ( de-facto) Assad.
etc etc through the permutations.
I heard some talking head this morning saying only Sunnis can clear them out-because IS is Sunni-so you don't upset any other Muslim sects.
Frankly I'm sick to death of watching this murderous schism in Islam take more & more innocent lives .
They declared war in Paris & we should respond in support & in unison-preferably under a UN flag.-but their "caliphate" has to be removed.
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Entertainment is an ever evolving part of our lives, constantly changing to match societal norms and trends.
Whether this is with TV shows including seasons with Covid related episodes, TV and movies being more inclusive towards the LGBTQ+ community, or simply including more diversity than ever before. Musicians feel like they are able to be more open about their emotions, leading them to create music based on topics surrounding mental health and personal experiences.
From Disney Channel to Cartoon Network and even more educational based channels like PBS have changed to match their target audience in a way that speaks to their beliefs and values. If you grab a remote and turn on the TV, you'll likely find a show where there is an attempt at including diversity, from race to sexual orientation.
Take for example, Disney Channels 'Andi Mack' which aired from 2017 until 2019. The show depicts coming to terms with sexuality and LBTQ+ relationships as young teens. A survey conducted on the GrizzlyGrowler Instagram has shown that 84% of people have had an opinion or perspective change on a social issue due to viewing a form of entertainment. 'The Loud House' spin off show 'The Casagrandes' follows a Mexican-American family and topics ranging from first generation college education and cultural holidays. 'CoComelon' is another popular show that has gained popularity quickly with parents who have infants and toddlers, as it teaches nursery rhymes through bright, stimulating lights that occur throughout the show.
"My two little cousins love Cocomelon, [but] Peppa Pig is better and I started to turn it on for them to get educated," Sophomore Alexandra Reed said. "My two year old cousin is a pandemic baby and is oddly smart for her age, she knows the entire alphabet already, I don't know if it's because of these new educational shows like Cocomelon."
As Quarantine found many bored and alone at home, spending hours watching TV and movies on streaming services was not uncommon. Dr. Ayushi Dixit, a clinical psychologist, conducted research which showed that, "during the lockdown period, 73.7 % agreed to a considerable increase in binge-watching with an increase in an average time of 3-5 hours (17.3 %) and 5+ hours (11.5 %) of binge-watching."
Not only would there have been an increase in the amount of time spent binge watching shows, there could have also been an increase in screen time as well. Many individuals have reported seeing an increase in the amount of time they had spent on their phone during the pandemic than previous years. During the pandemic everyone was stuck inside their homes with not much to do, and some took this as an opportunity to start many new shows.
"I won't even realize that I do it but I'll just subconsciously go onto TikTok at times and I don't even mean to, it won't be on my mind," Sophomore Nevaeh Racut said. "During quarantine and even after my screen time was in the fifties."
Movies nowadays are being remade into live action or are being redone into a new series. Many newer movies have been released once before but are now being created into live action movies, such as 'Lion King', causing viewers to become excited to see a once animated movie come to life on the big screen. However not all viewers are too thrilled with the remaking of many movies, instead they are wanting new original movies that have never been done before. Many viewers have claimed that it can become boring seeing a bunch of remakes made when nothing is original anymore. Many of these remakes have been fit with societal norms, showing more diversity than what the original movie had.
"I think nowadays with movies within the past 5 years movies are remakes, sequels or revivals of old franchises," Senior Sabrin Diaa said. "I feel like newer directors are running out of original content and ideas but in the 90s it was a prime time for movies being hit after hit."
Many students have mentioned how music has evolved into different genres and topics that artists are becoming more willing to talk about. Artists nowadays feel more open to talk about their emotions and traumatic experiences from their lives, creating music with a sadder tone than usual.
"Music, specifically modern R&B and soul, really helps to calm me down and takes away any stresses that I was feeling prior," Senior Miguel Torres said. "Music helps me escape from reality and just take a break from all of the work and stress, music has been a really good tool to mediate that."
Emerging artists like Olivia Rodrigo or Billie Eilish have gained popularity within the teenage community, due to their lyrics because they are relatable to teens. Their songs typically regard relationships, internal struggles and loneliness, which are many issues that younger audiences are faced with. Genres such as indie gaining popularity within viewers being a more talked about genre now. Some viewers listen to more underground artists like Phoebe Bridgers, Cavetown, Eyedress, and Destiny Rogers.
Students have claimed that their music taste has changed a lot within the past couple years, listening to newer artists or even newer genres. Teens nowadays are able to relate to songs from any era, many seeing music as a form of coping or a way to express their emotions.
"Personally, I can relate to multiple eras and genres as a musician, I find it really easy to enjoy most music because I know that every genre has it's different skill set," Senior Christopher Parada said. "My favorite genre at the moment is 90s rock/grunge because the rock music at the time was so raw and experimental."
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The Student News Site of Spring Valley High School
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Europe, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Politics, Spain
Why has the EU's political revolt been confined to Greece and Spain?
Filed Under austerity, podemos, protest, Syriza
Paolo Gerbaudo
Amid a worsening economic crisis, a look at the protest movements that are struggling against austerity could be described as a two-speed.Europe An expression abused by economists and political scientists talking about the different levels of economic productivity and political integration of European countries, it also captures well the distance between countries where protest movements have won the approval of a majority of the population, and others where they continue to be in the minority.
On the one hand there are Spain and Greece, which since 2011 have seen an impressive citizen mobilization and in which the force of the movement is blowing wind in the sails of Left parties, like the new-born Podemos in Spain and the remodeled SYRIZA in Greece, which are now in for a chance of government. On the other hand there are a number of countries such as Italy, Germany, France and Great Britain, where the protests against austerity are far from representing the majority support that has been secured by the indignados in Spain and the aganaktismenoi in Greece.
Spain has undoubtedly been leading Europe in the social movements stakes in recent years. Since the birth of the indignados in May 2011, the country has experienced a high level of protests. From the "citizen tides" against government cuts to the campaigns against housing evictions, to a flourishing of associations, alternative media and grassroots legal campaigns against corrupt politicians. It is in this context of the awesome strength of social movements that we have to read the spectacular growth of Podemos, now the no. 1 party according to the opinion polls, as well as the development of local initiatives such as Ganemos in Madrid, Guanyem in Barcelona, participatory civic lists, through which movements directly seek local government power, without the mediation of any party.
Greece follows close behind. After the occupations by the aganaktismenoi ("outraged" in Greek), the country has seen the emergence of various protest actions against cuts to public spending, new forms of local associations, campaigns of solidarity with migrants and factory occupations. The relationship of the movement with SYRIZA is more problematic than that of the indignados with Podemos, as SYRIZA is more classic party, more bureaucratic. But even in this case the reason for the electoral growth of Alexis Tsipras' party, likely to win early elections in 2015, is the result of broad consensus that the movements have been able to create in a country massacred by austerity policies.
Far behind are all other European countries, where the "movement of the squares" were killed in the cradle, as happened in Italy with the debacle of October 15, 2011 or have made little impact, as in Great Britain, where the Occupy movement was much weaker than the US cousin. To be sure, signs of activity in these countries are not lacking. In Italy, the strength of the movement for housing, the large turnout for in the the CGIL protest on 25 October and in the strike on November 14, offer some hope.
In Germany, Blockupy, a group that has launched several protests against the European Central Bank promises to spoil the party for the opening of the new headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt. In Britain, the People's Assembly in recent years has reconstructed the left front against austerity. In France, the "classic country of the class struggle," according to Marx, has in recent years witnessed major protests like the one in 2006 against the European Constitution, but the movement against the economic crisis has proved to be surprisingly weak, although in recent days we have seen union mobilization targeted against budget cuts ordered by a deeply disappointing Socialist President Francois Hollande.
What is still missing in these countries, even in those where the protest movements seem to be more active, is the spirit of the people, in a positive populist meaning, something which allowed the movements in Spain and Greece to win the approval of a majority of the population and create the basis for a conquest of state power.
Instead of innovating practice and language in order to capitalize on the growing dissent of large segments of the population, we continue to cling to tradition, as if 2011 and the Occupy movement never happened. Or we resort to the antagonist political tactics adopted by the anti-globalization movement or we stick to the traditional union procession. Practices that mobilize different sectors of the organized left, be it independent or institutional, but that are unable to reach mass of unorganized and unrepresented, the impoverished middle and working class, the new poor that dot the landscape of the great recession, and could become the basis of consensus for the Right.
The reasons for this movement in Europe of two speeds are varied. Spain and Greece, the leading countries for the anti-austerity movement, are not surprisingly also the the ones where the social effects of the crisis have been felt more explosively, with a quarter of the population and half of young people out of work. In other countries, the effects of the crisis have been experienced in more slowly and moderately, either because the impact has been cushioned by a more generous welfare state like France and Britain, or due to a better economic situation such as in Germany, or because household savings have been used to temporarily limit social problems, such as Italy.
However, the gap between Spain and Greece and the rest also has to do with political and cultural issues. In Italy the burdensome presence of groups inherited from the anti-globalization movement is one of the factors has hindered the emergence of a indignados-style movement. But to move from a defensive attitude to ambitious majority, in Italy as in other countries, there lacked a resource that is at the basis of the birth of the indignados in Spain and in the aganaktismenoi in Greece. It's one thing summed up the ambivalent Spanish word 'ilusion', often used by Iberian activists to explain the spirit of the recent protests; it means at the same time "illusion" and "enthusiasm" for the things to come. It is this that we need to defeat the resignation and invent new forms of protest at times of economic and social hardship.
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Posted by geofftkennedy | November 22, 2014, 5:36 am


Housatonic has always been about helping students, especially in regards to planning their futures, and this year HCC is providing its students with more help than ever. The school has purchased an online career coach that makes it truly easy to assess all aspects of the career a student might wish to pursue.
Career Coach, which can be accessed from https://housatonic.emsicareercoach.com, is designed to help you find a good career by providing the most current local data on wages, employment, job postings, and associated education and training. The website can tell you which jobs are growing in your area, what the wages are, and what sort of education you need to get your foot in the door. It supplies you with a ton of information including in-depth degree descriptions, personal career assessments, and a resume builder. A brief video tutorial is supplied at the top of the homepage. It expresses that it's okay for students not to know all this information yet, and they can use the available data even if they're not sure what career is right for them. Students can benefit from Career Coach whether they are freshmen surveying career options or seniors building a resume and everywhere in between.
The Career Coach homepage offers shortcuts, like the ones pictured above, bringing you the info you want fast and easy!
The Career Coach website has a simple layout and is very easy to navigate. You can jump right into learning about a career/careers by using the search bar or take full advantage of the site by clicking the recommended start button. Creating a login and fully exploring all the options is highly encouraged.
Current student Andrew Melendez was pleased to be informed about the virtual career coach. He has been taking general courses for multiple semesters and has recently narrowed down his classes for a particular field. Melendez wants to be a radiologic technologist but while pursuing this path, he has been missing a lot of information. "I've had a lot of questions I just couldn't find the answers to, or I found too many answers and I wasn't sure which one to believe. This website supplied me with so much knowledge on a single page – so much more productive than Google," he said. Andrew Melendez now knows that his desired field is projected to grow, that there are many local businesses providing jobs, and what he is most pleased about, is the average annual salary from start to experienced.
Virtual Career Coach has the ability to provide assistance to a countless number of students in a variety of ways. A new program at Housatonic, FORWARD, is another recommended source for student support services. The FORWARD program purchased Career Coach for the college. "Career Coach has been available to HCC students during the past school year, but many are unaware of it, so I would welcome the opportunity to promote it more fully to the HCC community," said Philip Dante, Career Development Coordinator with the FORWARD program. For further knowledge and facilitation, please visit www.housatonic.edu/FORWARD.


Black Water RV Tanks are designed specifically for the collection of wastewater from toilets in RVs, motorhomes, 5th wheels, trailers, campers, and tiny houses. RV black water tanks are designated explicitly for the septic purpose of holding sewage wastewater and are not recommended for any other use.
These blackwater tanks are made from rotationally-molded polyethylene resin that provides strength, long service life, and great protection against cracks, rust, and corrosion. Blackwater holding tanks are manufactured by Dura-Cast and Ronco.
RV septic tanks can be used for most recreational vehicles makes and models. They can be used as a new or replacement black water tank. The septic tanks are available with pre-installed fittings or as blank tanks with DIY custom fitting packages. Capacities for black water tanks range in 5 gallon to 202 gallons, with tank thickness ranges from 0.25 inches (1/4") to 0.375 inches (3/8"). When installing or performing maintenance, all care, handling, and procedures should be done specifically for wastewater holding tanks.


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24News.ca
Stormy weather threatens to disrupt holiday travel in Atlantic Canada
Category: Canada News
Published Friday, December 25, 2015
HALIFAX - A mixed bag of weather is threatening to disrupt travel plans across the Maritimes.
Environment Canada says a trough of low pressure is expected to slide south of the region on Sunday.
The national weather forecaster says snow is expected on Sunday and Monday, but it's too early to predict how much.
Rain is expected to turn to snow Sunday evening in Nova Scotia, with the potential for extended periods of ice pellets.
Meanwhile, Environment Canada says New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island should brace for a winter storm.
Latest Canada & World News
Presidential inaugural committee 'blatantly' enriched Trump family: D.C. attorney general
World News CBC News
The District of Columbia is suing U.S. President Donald Trump's inaugural committee and two companies that control the Trump International Hotel in the nation's capital, accusing them of throwing parties for the Trump family with non-profit funds, and overpaying for event space at the hotel. Source
World News CTV News
SANTIAGO, PANAMA -- A survivor of the cult ceremony that killed her daughter and six other people in a remote village in Panama says she was ordered to close her eyes, was beaten and knocked unconscious during the ritual. Source
Canada News CTV News
GREENBELT, MD. -- Former Canadian army reservist and accused white supremacist Patrik Mathews was denied bail following an appearance this morning in a U.S. court. Mathews and two other men were arrested last week after the former combat engineer disappeared from his residence in Manitoba amid allegations he was a recruiter for a white-supremacist called The Base. Source
Man wins new sex assault trial over poor Swahili-English translation
TORONTO -- A man convicted of sexually assaulting his wife has won a new trial because of problems with the Swahili interpreter he was provided. In overturning his conviction, an Ontario Superior Court justice found the interpreter's incompetence and the trial judge's failure to address the situation breached the man's charter rights. Source
Unprovoked shark attacks drop worldwide, but not in the U.S.
GAINESVILLE, FLA. -- Unprovoked shark attacks around the world decreased last year, although they rose in the United States, according to researchers. There were 64 confirmed unprovoked shark attacks worldwide last year, compared to the most recent five-year-average of 82 unprovoked attacks, according to researchers with the International Shark Attack File. Source
Worker in Ohio dies after falling into vat of acid, officials investigate
DAYTON, OHIO -- A worker fell into a chemical vat at a business in Ohio and died, authorities said. Dana Swisher, 60, of Union, fell into the vat at Techmetals Inc. on Tuesday, Montgomery County Coroner Dr. Source
DUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES -- The phone of Amazon billionaire and Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos was hacked after receiving a file sent from an account used by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, United Nations experts alleged Wednesday. Source
CALGARY -- Alberta's Justice Minister is expected to focus in on rural crime in a meeting with his provincial, territorial and federal counterparts in Victoria, B.C. Wednesday. In a letter sent to federal Justice Minister & Attorney General David Lametti in December, Doug Schweitzer wants to see amendments to the criminal code to tackle "skyrocketing" crime rates in many of Alberta's rural communities. Source
Indigenous pipeline supporters slam human-rights advocates over Coastal GasLink stance
Canada News CBC News
A collective of First Nations who support the liquefied natural gas industry in British Columbia say human rights advocates failed to do their research when they called for the Coastal GasLink pipeline project to be halted. The First Nations LNG Alliance has issued open letters to the B.C. Source
CONCORD, N.H. -- A coyote that was strangled by a man after attacking his child had rabies, and it may not be the only one, according to the New Hampshire Fish and Game Department. Police said they believe the coyote attacked a vehicle on a road in Hampton Falls, bit a 62-year-old woman and her dogs on a porch in Kensington and then attacked a family walking on a trail in Exeter on Monday. Source


Nausea Kit. It's the first lesson of pregnancy – morning sickness is not just limited to the morning! Some women feel pretty good during the first 12 weeks, while others are throwing up morning, noon and night. Since you can't just stop your life and stay in bed all day, you need a plan for what happens when you feel ill in public. Make a nausea kit with those disposable toothbrushes, facial wipes, a small hand towel, hard candy, breath fresheners or gum and your makeup compact. This will give you some peace of mind as you face the day.
Car Kit. If you do a lot of commuting, whether by car, bus or train, have a portable nausea kit at the ready just in case. You may never need to vomit in your car, but if you do, make sure you have a red solo cup in the console so you avoid a much more heinous situation. If you commute by public transportation, an airline paper bag will do. Avoid the bus bathrooms if you can, since the smell might unleash a new wave of sickness.
Develop Shorthand with Your Partner. Alert your partner that you will be feeling many different emotions, some of which are hard to control or express. If your emotions are gushing, say a word or phrase to let your husband know that you are having a little pregnancy-related breakdown. Otherwise he may step in and try to "fix the problem" when this problem isn't fixable. This shorthand will let him know you just need a minute to vent.
Prepare to Tell Your Boss. If you are working then you are probably dreading having the "I'm pregnant" talk. The best way to handle your boss is to come in with a plan that includes your probable due date, what duties will need to be temporarily reassigned and a list of things you will do to prepare your workplace to live without you while on maternity leave. This will put your boss's mind at ease.
Bland foods and Small Meals. Dealing with the nausea, bloating and headaches that come with the first trimester of pregnancy is a learning curve. When you aren't feeling well, stick to bland foods. That means toast and chicken broth at home, and crackers and ginger ale when you are out of the house. Eat small meals several times a day. That makes you feel less bloated since you are less full. It also helps ensure that the vomiting is minimal.
Listen to Your Body. This is a big one, girls. If you feel like taking a nap, nap. If you don't feel like doing housework, ignore it. Now is not the time to try to do everything and be superwoman. And remember, you'll feel much more energetic during the second trimester. Ask your partner to take on more housework, hire some outside help or just learn to let small things go. Think of this as good training for the demands of raising a child.


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When someone offers you a trip to DR...you take it. Who cares about all the little details? they always seem to work themselves out right?
In New York, you are constantly battling. Everything is just a little harder here. I never want to leave New York permanently, but its always nice to give your mind and body a bit of rest. and this vacation did just that. This time it was just the 3 of us. We woke up every morning, opened the doors to our balcony and drank coffee. We spent our days swimming, eating and soaking in the sun. I find my soul seems at ease by the water...and I think Olives is too.
1. Our stroller. Its from bugaboo and can pretty much do anything! Olive took her naps in it and we used it on the sand, grass and by the pool. 2. Circle towels from SwimZip. 3. Recycled plastic woven basket fromCabbages and Kings, so great for carrying pool and beach toys! and you can rinse the sand off easily after the beach! I always say this, but 4. salt water sandals. THEY ARE THE BEST!! Olive wears them in the ocean and pool and they protect her feet from the hot patio or sand (i have a pair too and they are the only sandals I wear). And lastly 5. honest re usable swim diapers.


Even for seasoned orcas, adult blue whales are largely off the menu – but that doesn't stop the apt hunters from having a go at their much larger kin.
This clash of cetaceans was filmed in California's Monterey Bay, the same coastal hub where we watched a pod of orcas feast on a grey whale recently.
"Although humpbacks stand up to killer whales and trumpet blow at them, blue whales are easily startled and flee the scene!" explains the team at Monterey Bay Whale Watch, who uploaded the drone footage to their Facebook page this week.
The blue whale could be seen "porpoising away, swimming at full speed out of the water," the team adds.
Monterey Bay hosts Biggs (previously known as "transient") orcas, a group that specialises in hunting marine mammals. Despite those predatory skills, however, the blue whale wasn't in much danger here. We are, after all, talking about the largest animals on the planet, which can grow to a mind-boggling 110 feet in length. And even newborn calves weigh in at several tonnes.
An orca charge of this nature has been observed only once before in the bay. That encounter involved a juvenile blue whale, and the youngster still managed to thwart its attackers with a powerful tail throw.
"Some of our blue whales do have killer whale tooth rakes on them," says the team. "Especially on their flukes, pectoral flippers and dorsal fins. Blue whale attacks have been documented in Mexican waters, but we have not documented any killer whale attacks on adult whales – except for minke whales, which are our smallest baleen whale in the Northern Hemisphere."
Stunned tourists watch as an orca sends a hapless green turtle sailing through the air in the Galápagos.
Tourists in California's Monterey Bay got a major treat when a pair of orcas decided to join their fishing trip!


text:
Morrissey Has Joined Twitter
Written By Rob Arcand
| September 17, 2017 - 12:16 pm
Home » News » Morrissey Has Joined Twitter
SANTA ANA, CA - APRIL 08: (EDITORS NOTE: Image contains profanity.) Morrissey performs during When We Were Young Festival 2017 at The Observatory on April 8, 2017 in Santa Ana, California. (Photo by Timothy Norris/Getty Images)
After possible cover art for his new album Low in High School surfaced on Instagram last week, it seems everyone's favorite militant misanthrope Morrissey has decided to join Twitter. Earlier this month, someone registered a verified account with the handle @officialmoz, but the former Smiths frontman has yet to fire off any tweets or confirm that the account is for sure his. In 2014, a similar account was created, verified and later proven to be an elaborate hoax in anticipation of his album World Peace is None Of Your Business. "I do not know who has opened this recent Twitter account, but please be aware that it is bogus," Morrissey shared with Rolling Stone in 2014. "That's, of course, if you should remotely care."
Earlier this year, the classic Smiths album The Queen is Dead saw a deluxe reissue, which included unreleased live versions of "Rubber Ring" and "What She Said". The Smiths frontman has also been in recent hot water with U.K. entertainment retailer HMV regarding their alleged "refusal" to stock his new album based on its supposedly "offensive" artwork. Find the alleged "official Moz" on Twitter here.
Morrissey Issues Statement on Political Views, Aborted Miley Cyrus Collaboration
Rob Arcand
morrissey, the smiths


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A lender can repossess a car without going to court. If a consumer has a car loan, the lender can retake possession of the consumer's car after a default by "self-help" repossession. That means the lender does not need to file a lawsuit, but can just send the repossession company to pick up the car upon a default.
The right to self-help repossession is very limited. Self-help repossession, while legal, is a drastic remedy and the law imposes very strict requirements on creditors and repossessors who repossess a car. The stringent requirements are well justified, as today's news is replete with stories about how unscrupulous lenders and repossessors can be in retaking possession of property.
A wrongful repossession occurs when a creditor repossesses property without an actual default under the security agreement. Though a lender can repossess a car without filing a lawsuit, there must be a "default" under the terms of the finance contract. The most common default is a failure to make a payment by the date it is due, though there can be other reasons for a default, such as a failure to carry appropriate insurance. A lawyer should review any finance contract and repossession carefully, and ensure that the lender has retaken possession of the car only after there actually was a default. Sometimes a lender will agree to a new payment date, but then repossess the car before that new, agreed-upon date. In that case, there likely was no default.
breaking through a closed or locked barrier (e.g., a garage), or damaging the vehicle.
In Los Angeles, there are many apartment buildings with gated and locked garages on the street level, and a secret code is required to enter the garage. If the repossessor somehow gains access to the garage without permission, it is a breach of the peace and an unlawful repossession.
In California, a consumer generally has two rights following a car repossession.
The first right is to "reinstate" the contract by paying all amounts past due, plus any applicable delinquency charges, collection and repossession costs. Depending on the basis for the repossession, the consumer may be required to satisfy any liens or encumbrances on the car or obtain insurance. Upon reinstatement, the car will be returned to the consumer and he or she will begin paying on the contract as if there was no default and repossession.
The second right is for the consumer to "redeem" the vehicle. This generally means that the consumer will have to pay in full the balance due under the loan, plus any applicable delinquency charges, collection and repossession costs. There can be a credit to the consumer for any unearned finance charge or canceled insurance, depending on the terms of the purchase contract. Upon redemption, the car is returned to the consumer and he or she owns it, having paid off the loan.
Reinstating the contract generally costs the consumer much less than redeeming the vehicle, and thus is the more desirable and sometimes only option based on the consumer's financial situation. There are certain, limited circumstances under which a creditor can deny a consumer the right to reinstate the contract, leaving redemption as the only option.
Creditors must provide consumers with detailed written post-repossession notice of their right to reinstatement and/or redemption. The written notice must be accurate and include complete disclosure of all charges and other information necessary for the consumer to reinstate the contract or redeem the vehicle.
If you cannot afford to reinstate or redeem the vehicle, it will be sold at auction and the creditor will apply the proceeds of the sale to your loan balance. You will owe the rest, which is called a "deficiency balance". Always have an attorney review the notice you receive after your car has been repossessed. California law is very strict as to what must be contained in it.
A consumer may not owe a deficiency balance. If the creditor does not provide the required notice in the proper form after repossession, the consumer will not owe a deficiency balance (the amount remaining on the contract after the sale of the vehicle).
A consumer may be able to get damages. A consumer can assert several claims for damages when his or her car is repossessed in breach of the peace and/or the creditor does not provide the required notice after repossession. Among other things, the consumer can sue for violations of the California and federal fair debt collection laws because they both preclude repossession of collateral when there is no present right to do so. There is no present right to repossess property when it would result in a breach of the peace. A consumer who prevails on a claim under the California or federal fair debt collection laws can recover actual damages (including the value of the car), statutory damages and his or her attorneys' fees and costs. The consumer can also sue for conversion (i.e., civil theft). Conversion gives the consumer the right to recover either the fair market value of the car, or an amount sufficient to compensate the consumer for his or her loss of use of the car (e.g., the rental costs of a similar car). Importantly, the consumer can seek punitive damages with a conversion claim.


Pinner Parish Church – A Church of England church within the Diocese of London, with our worship firmly centred on the Eucharist. The church is usually open 7 days a week between 9.00 am and 5.00 pm, and all are very welcome to pray or sit silently in this restful place of prayer.
Radlett Reform Synagogue – We are a vibrant young-at-heart Reform Jewish community of over 850 families, comprising just over 2,300 adults and children and growing steadily. We provide for the religious and spiritual needs of members through services and other activities including social and educational activities.
St Lawrence Church Abbots Langley – A living and working place which many visit each year – whether to worship at a regular service, to attend a special event, or to enjoy a private moment of peace. Our work extends beyond these walls out into the community in a number of ways, such as visiting schools, hospitals and care homes.
Holy Trinity Church Wallington – A parish church of the Church of England. We are a diverse church and try to make all people feel welcome. Whether you have been a Christian for years or you are just exploring what the Christian faith is all about, there is a place for you here.
Golders Green Parish Church – We are a vibrant church gathering from all around this part of North London, made up of people from all walks of life and from different backgrounds and cultures. We believe that church is not a building or an event. The church is a community of people on a mission to love God, one another and the people around them.


text:
Abolition (von  "Abschaffung", "Aufhebung") steht für

 ein Synonym von Amnestie
 die Einstellung des Strafverfahrens noch vor dem Gerichtsurteil, siehe Begnadigung
 die Abschaffung der Sklaverei, siehe Abolitionismus

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


text:
package org.apache.camel.test.mllp;

import org.apache.camel.Exchange;
import org.apache.camel.Processor;
import org.slf4j.Logger;
import org.slf4j.LoggerFactory;

/**
 * A Passthrough test processor
 *
 * Used to set breakpoints and diagnose what is going on in test routes
 */
public class PassthroughProcessor implements Processor {
    String id;
    Logger log = LoggerFactory.getLogger(this.getClass());

    public PassthroughProcessor(String id) {
        this.id = id;
    }

    @Override
    public void process(Exchange exchange) {
        String message = exchange.getIn().getBody(String.class);
        if (null != message) {
            String msh = message.substring(0, message.indexOf('\r'));
            log.debug("Processing MSH {}: \n{}\n", id, msh);
        }

        log.debug("Null inbound message body");
    }
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


60z01Keep your buds and edibles tasty and fresh in this durable stash jar. Made of thick transparent glass and an air tight sealed lid to ensure the highest quality preservation. Features a thin metal Yin Yang emblem with bright chrome finish on one side of the jar.


text:
SAT Test Centers and Dates in Namibia
By topschoolsintheusa | March 19, 2019
According to the College Board, there are 1 test centers for SAT and SAT Subject Tests in Namibia. Please note that before you register either of the SAT exams, you should choose your test date and test location. Each testing location is affiliated with an educational institution, such as high school, community college, or university. The following test centers administer one or more of 2019 and 2020 SAT tests in Namibia.
2019 – 2020 SAT Test Dates in Namibia
SAT Testing Centers in Namibia
TUCSIN HOUSE
Address: 16 Mont Blanc St Eros, Windhoek, Namibia
Center Code: 78980
More about Namibia
Namibia extends between the mouths of Kunene (in the north) and Oranje (in the south). The coastal zone on the Atlantic is occupied by the Namib desert.
A steep ascent ( large edge step) leads to the highlands of the interior (1,000–2,000 m above sea level), which in turn are towered over by mountains (Moltkeblick in the Auas Mountains 2,479 m above sea level). The highlands are slightly roofed against the Kalahari (in the east).
The subsoil consists of crystalline rocks from the African base; they are covered by Paleozoic sandstones, limestone and dolomites, and in the east by Kalahari sands. The highest point in the country is the Königstein (2,573 m above sea level) in the Namib. Only the border rivers Oranje, Kunene and Okawango carry water all year round; Swakop and Great Fish River and all other rivers only in some years during the rainy season.
REMZFAMILY: Modern history of Namibia from World War I to today, covering all major events on politics, economy, society, and technology.
Freedom of the press is guaranteed by a wide range of media and free reporting.
Press: The daily newspapers with the highest circulation are "The Namibian" (English, Oshivambo), the tabloid "Namibian Sun" (English), "Die Republikein" (Afrikaans) and the state-run "New Era" (English). The oldest daily newspaper is the German-language »Allgemeine Zeitung«. The weekly newspapers include "Windhoek Observer", "Informanté", "Namibia Economist" and "Kundana" (state).
News Agency: Namibian Press Agency (Nampa, state).
Broadcasting: The public broadcaster Namibian Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) broadcasts radio programs in nine languages and three television programs. There are also some commercial radio broadcasters. The largest private television station is "One Africa TV". South African television is also received.
The importance of tourism is growing within the service sector (GDP share: around 15%). The government promotes ecotourism rather than mass tourism; the local population should participate in this.
In 2015, 1.19 million foreign visitors came, mainly from the neighboring countries Angola, the Republic of South Africa and Zambia, as well as from Germany (2015 income: US $ 444 million). Tourist attractions are the Etosha National Park, the canyon of the Great Fish River and the Sossusvlei with sand dunes up to 300 m high in the Namib-Naukluft National Park. Check ezinesports to see Namibia Travel Package.
Namibia has good transport links. The main line of the 2,687 km long railway network runs from Nakop on the border with the Republic of South Africa via Keetmanshoop, Windhoek to Walvis Bay. The road network covers around 45,000 km (7,165 km of which is paved) and connects all major towns. Walvis Bay has a deep water port. Windhoek has an international airport, there are also around 20 domestic airports and airfields and over 100 landing strips in Namibia.
Oshakati
Oshakati [- ʃ -], capital of the Oshana region, Namibia, in the north of the country, (2011) 36,500 residents; Airport.
Swakopmund, capital of the Erongo region, Namibia, at the mouth of the Swakop in the Atlantic, (2011) 44 700 residents.
Numerous colonial buildings still today (e.g. the Woermannhaus; built 1903-04, today library and gallery); popular seaside resort; Salt extraction (salt gardens), guano mining, brewery; Train station, airport; Residential area for commuters to the Rössing uranium ore mine.
Swakopmund was founded in 1892 by the German governor Kurt von François (* 1853, † 1931) and received city rights in 1909. In 1902 the narrow-gauge railway to Windhoek was opened; until 1914 Swakopmund was the main port of the German protected area of South West Africa.
Walvis Bay [ w ɔ ː lv ɪ s be ɪ ], German Walvis Bay, Afrikaans Walvisbaai [ w ɑ lf ɪ s b ɑ i], port city in Namibia, in a sheltered position on the bay in the Namib Desert, (2011) 62 100 residents.
Fishing and processing (fishmeal and canning factories), salt and guano extraction; Deep-water port (95% of Namibia's port throughput is handled via Walvis Bay), railroad inland, terminus of the Transkalahari Highway, airport.
In 1878 Great Britain occupied the area of Walvis Bay and administered it from 1884 as part of the Cape Colony. The South African Union (since 1961 Republic of South Africa) administered Walvis Bay 1922-77 as part of its mandate area South West Africa (now Namibia ), but then emphasized the direct territorial sovereignty by reintegrating it into the Cape Province. In 1978 the UN Security Council called for Walvis Bay to be annexed to Namibia; After Namibia's independence (1990), an equal administration of Walvis Bay by Namibia and the Republic of South Africa from November 1, 1992 was agreed. On March 1st, 1994 Walvis Bay (settlement and port of Walvis Bay as well as 12 small uninhabited islands off the coast) passed into the sovereignty of Namibia.
Rundu, capital of the Kavango-East region, Namibia, in the far north of the country, (2011) 63 400 residents.
Handicrafts (wood carving); Gate to the Caprivi Point; Airport.
ACT Test Centers and Dates in Namibia
TOEFL Test Centers in Namibia
GRE Test Centers in Namibia
IELTS Test Centers in Namibia
SAT Test Centers and Dates in Turks and Caicos Islands
SAT Test Centers and Dates in Trinidad and Tobago
SAT Test Centers and Dates in Saint Vincent and The Grenadines
SAT Test Centers and Dates in Saint Kitts and Nevis
SAT Test Centers and Dates in Bosnia and Herzegovina
SAT Test Centers and Dates in Ontario, Canada
Category: Africa SAT Test Centers Tags: Study in Namibia
← SAT Test Centers and Dates in Myanmar SAT Test Centers and Dates in Nepal →


text:
package zq.whu.zhangshangwuda.ui.news;

import imid.swipebacklayout.lib.SwipeBackLayout;

import java.util.Map;

import org.json.JSONException;
import org.jsoup.Jsoup;
import org.jsoup.helper.StringUtil;
import org.jsoup.nodes.Document;
import org.jsoup.nodes.Element;
import org.jsoup.select.Elements;

import zq.whu.zhangshangwuda.base.BaseThemeSwipeBackSherlockActivity;
import zq.whu.zhangshangwuda.tools.Constants;
import zq.whu.zhangshangwuda.tools.HtmlTool;
import zq.whu.zhangshangwuda.tools.NewsTool;
import zq.whu.zhangshangwuda.tools.StringUtils;
import zq.whu.zhangshangwuda.tools.ThemeUtility;
import zq.whu.zhangshangwuda.ui.R;
import zq.whu.zhangshangwuda.views.toast.ToastUtil;
import android.annotation.TargetApi;
import android.content.Context;
import android.content.Intent;
import android.content.SharedPreferences;
import android.os.Build;
import android.os.Build.VERSION;
import android.os.Build.VERSION_CODES;
import android.os.Bundle;
import android.os.Handler;
import android.os.Message;
import android.os.Vibrator;
import android.text.Spanned;
import android.text.TextUtils;
import android.view.View;
import android.widget.LinearLayout;
import android.widget.TextView;

import com.actionbarsherlock.view.Menu;
import com.actionbarsherlock.view.MenuItem;
import com.actionbarsherlock.view.Window;
import com.umeng.analytics.MobclickAgent;

@TargetApi(Build.VERSION_CODES.HONEYCOMB)
public class NewsContentActivity extends BaseThemeSwipeBackSherlockActivity {
	private static final int MENU_REFRESH = Menu.FIRST;
	private static final int MENU_SAVE = Menu.FIRST + 1;
	private static final int MENU_SNS = Menu.FIRST + 2;
	private boolean isSaveInLocal, isAutoSaveInLocal;
	private TextView titleTextView, anthorTextView, moreinfoTextView;
	private View content_line;
	private LinearLayout contentLinearLayout;
	private String title;
	private String time;
	private String href;
	private Map<String, String> contentmap = null;
	private String content;
	private Spanned contentSpanned;
	private static final int VIBRATE_DURATION = 20;
	private SwipeBackLayout mSwipeBackLayout;

	public boolean isShowImage() {
		SharedPreferences Mysettings = getSharedPreferences(
				Constants.PREFS_NAME_APP_SETTING, 0);
		return Mysettings.getBoolean("news_showimage", true);
	}

	@Override
	public boolean onCreateOptionsMenu(Menu menu) {
		menu.add(Menu.NONE, MENU_REFRESH, 1,
				getResources().getString(R.string.refresh))
				.setIcon(R.drawable.ic_menu_refresh)
				.setShowAsAction(
						MenuItem.SHOW_AS_ACTION_IF_ROOM
								| MenuItem.SHOW_AS_ACTION_WITH_TEXT);
		// menu.add(Menu.NONE, MENU_SNS, 2,
		// getResources().getString(R.string.share))
		// .setIcon(R.drawable.ic_menu_share)
		// .setShowAsAction(
		// MenuItem.SHOW_AS_ACTION_IF_ROOM
		// | MenuItem.SHOW_AS_ACTION_WITH_TEXT);
		;
		return true;
	}

	@Override
	public boolean onOptionsItemSelected(MenuItem item) {
		switch (item.getItemId()) {
		case android.R.id.home:
			finish();
			break;
		case MENU_REFRESH:
			refreshData();
			break;
		// case MENU_SNS:
		// if (contentmap != null)
		// sharenews();
		// break;
		}
		return false;
	}

	@Override
	public void onCreate(Bundle savedInstanceState) {
		requestWindowFeature(Window.FEATURE_INDETERMINATE_PROGRESS);
		super.onCreate(savedInstanceState);
		getSupportActionBar().setDisplayHomeAsUpEnabled(true);
		MobclickAgent.updateOnlineConfig(this);
		setContentView(R.layout.news_content);
		Intent intent = getIntent();
		href = intent.getStringExtra("href");
		// title = NoticeHtmlTool.getZqNoticesContentTitle(href);
		// isSaveInLocal =
		// LocalDataSharedPreferencesTool.news_isSaveInLocal(this);
		// isAutoSaveInLocal = LocalDataSharedPreferencesTool
		// .news_isAutoSaveInLocal(this);
		findViews();
		refreshData();
		getWindow().setBackgroundDrawable(null);
	}

	private void findViews() {
		titleTextView = (TextView) findViewById(R.id.news_content_news_title_TextView);
		anthorTextView = (TextView) findViewById(R.id.news_content_news_author_TextView);
		moreinfoTextView = (TextView) findViewById(R.id.news_content_news_moreinfo_TextView);
		contentLinearLayout = (LinearLayout) findViewById(R.id.news_content_news_content_LinearLayout);
		content_line = (View) findViewById(R.id.news_content_news_content_line);
	}

	/**
	 * 加载/刷新 当前页面
	 *
	 * @return
	 */
	private void refreshData() {

		setSupportProgressBarIndeterminateVisibility(true);
		new Thread(new Runnable() {
			@Override
			public void run() {
				loadContent();
				if (contentmap != null) {
					String id = contentmap.get("id");
					String hitUrl = "http://news.ziqiang.net/article/hits/"
							+ id + "/";
					HtmlTool.downLoadZqNewsJson(hitUrl);
				}
				handler.sendEmptyMessage(0);
			}

		}).start();
	}

	/**
	 * 加载文章正文
	 */
	private void loadContent() {
		// if (!tryToLoadFromDb()) {// 从本地加载不成功则从网络加载,并将加载到的内容存入数据库
		try {
			contentmap = NewsTool.getNewsContent(href);
		} catch (JSONException e) {
			// TODO Auto-generated catch block
			e.printStackTrace();
		}
		// }
	}

	// /**
	// * 尝试从数据库中加载文章正文
	// *
	// * @return 是否成功加载
	// */
	// private boolean tryToLoadFromDb() {
	// News news = NewsDb.getInstance(NewsContentActivity.this)
	// .getNewsByUrl(href);
	// if (news == null) {
	// return false;
	// } else {
	// content = news.getContent();
	// contentSpanned = Html.fromHtml(content);
	// title = news.getTitle();
	// return true;
	// }
	// }

	private Handler handler = new Handler() {
		@Override
		public void handleMessage(Message msg) {
			super.handleMessage(msg);
			if (contentmap == null) {
				ToastUtil.showToast(NewsContentActivity.this,
						R.string.No_Intenert_Tip);
				content_line.setVisibility(View.INVISIBLE);
			} else {
				content_line.setVisibility(View.VISIBLE);
				contentLinearLayout.removeAllViews();
				boolean showImage = isShowImage();
				titleTextView.setText(contentmap.get("title"));
				anthorTextView.setText(contentmap.get("author"));
				moreinfoTextView.setText(contentmap.get("time") + ' ' + "点击:"
						+ contentmap.get("hits"));
				getSupportActionBar().setSubtitle(contentmap.get("category"));
				Document doc = Jsoup.parse(contentmap.get("content"));
				Elements contents = doc.getElementsByTag("p");
				for (Element content : contents) {
					if (showImage) {
						Elements imgs = content.getElementsByTag("img");
						for (Element img : imgs) {
							ImageViewFromUrl pic = new ImageViewFromUrl(
									NewsContentActivity.this);
							String t = img.attr("width");
							int pwidth = 200, pheight = 300;
							if (!t.equals(""))
								pwidth = Integer.parseInt(t);
							t = img.attr("height");
							if (!t.equals(""))
								pheight = Integer.parseInt(t);
							if (!StringUtils.isEmpty(img.absUrl("src")))
								pic.load(img.absUrl("src"), pwidth, pheight);
							contentLinearLayout.addView(pic);
						}
					}
					if (!content.text().equals(Jsoup.parse(" ").text())) {
						TextView tx = new TextView(NewsContentActivity.this);
						if (VERSION.SDK_INT >= VERSION_CODES.HONEYCOMB) {
							tx.setTextIsSelectable(true);
						}
						tx.setBackgroundDrawable(null);
						tx.setText(content.text());
						tx.setLineSpacing(3.0f, 1.5f);
						tx.setTextSize(15);
						tx.setTextColor(ThemeUtility
								.getColor(R.attr.newsContentTextColor));
						contentLinearLayout.addView(tx);
					}
				}
			}
			setSupportProgressBarIndeterminateVisibility(false);
		}
	};

	// /**
	// * 显示图片的ImageGetter
	// */
	// private Html.ImageGetter imageGetter = new Html.ImageGetter() {
	// @Override
	// public Drawable getDrawable(String source) {
	// InputStream is = null;
	// try {
	// is = (InputStream) new URL(source).getContent();
	// Drawable d = Drawable.createFromStream(is, "src");
	// d.setBounds(0, 0, d.getIntrinsicWidth(), d.getIntrinsicHeight());
	// is.close();
	// return d;
	// } catch (Exception e) {
	// return null;
	// }
	// }
	// };

	// public void sharenews() {
	// // TODO Auto-generated method stub
	// String sharecontent = MobclickAgent.getConfigParams(this,
	// "share_content");
	// // Map<String, String> sharemap = new HashMap<String, String>();
	// // sharemap.put("title", contentmap.get("title"));
	// // sharemap.put("href", contentmap.get("href"));
	// sharecontent = sharecontent.replace("title", contentmap.get("title"));
	// sharecontent = sharecontent.replace("href", contentmap.get("href"));
	// UMSnsService.shareToRenr(NewsContentActivity.this, sharecontent, null);
	// }

	// public void saveData() {
	// News tnews = new News(href, title, time, content);
	// NewsDb.getInstance(NewsContentActivity.this).insert(tnews);
	// }

}


text:
Das Georg-Lechner-Biermuseum in Oelde ist ein Museum über Bier und seine Herstellung. Schwerpunkt ist die Geschichte des westfälischen Brauereiwesens.

Sammlung

Auf einer Fläche von über 300 m² werden mehrere Tausend Exponate ausgestellt. Neben einem originalen Sudhaus von 1900 sind Brauereigeräte, Emailleschilder und über 1000 Bierkrüge ausgestellt.
Der namensgebende, ehemalige Museumsleiter ist Braumeister und Sammler von Bieretiketten. Seine Sammlung umfasst 220.000 Etiketten.

Gebäude
Ein Neubau der Pott´s Naturpark-Brauerei GmbH aus den 1990er Jahren wurde 2003 um das Biermuseum erweitert.

Weblinks
 Offizielle Internetpräsenz

Literatur
 Georg Lechner: Lechner's Liste Oelde, 2008

Museum im Kreis Warendorf
Oelde
Kultur (Oelde)
Museum (Essen und Trinken) in Deutschland


Sony's 84-inch 4K TV Will Cost $25,000!
Interested in one of those swank 4K TV sets, that can crank out resolutions of 3840 x 2160?
Well if you're one of those people that has to have the latest and greatest, Sony's 84-inch XBR version is going to set you back a whopping $24,999.99!
Sony revealed the price yesterday as well as it's November availability at major retailers and through their own company website.
The84-inch XBR-84X900 LED will come equipped with the three-chip 4K X-Reality Pro picture engine, a 10-Unit Live Speaker System and can display full HD 3D.
In addition, the TV will have network connectivity and feature 4K upscaling for non-native content.
The 4K TV will be available for pre-orders on Sep. 6, in case you're feeling like the Million Dollar Man Ted DiBiase.


Hair: Slicked back black mohawk, often in a small pony tail.
Personality: Kazir may look like he could kill someone with one glance, but actually he is a giant teddy bear...uh cat... When not on a job, Kazir likes relax at local bars where the liquor is good and the Jazz is sweet. Although he is almost always a sweetheart. Now like every cat, he does have a nasty temper, which only comes out when he is annoyed or provoked.
History: Kazir was adopted by the Polis people when he was just a little cub. He was one of the few to be selected and used as a experiment. An experiment to see if the Gata race could be taught new things or if they where classified as a 'Unintelligent' race, Kazir proved that wrong. When he was a young lad, around 19 or maybe even 20. He joined the Polis Army. From there he rose up from being a Private to a Command Sergeant Major. Pretty good for a cat yes? He was doing good until he walked upon a group of solider that where plotting to back-stab the Army. Sadly this cat was caught and given a horrible punishment... the group held down the cat and cut out his tongue and named him as a deserter. Once this reached the higher ranks, Kazir had no choice but to run. Now he lingers in bars, Being hired as a mercenary or sometimes hired as a fighter for fight clubs.