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SEE JACK O'CONNELL, COLIN FARRELL AT ARCTIC IN NEW NORTH WATER EPIC TV SERIES PHOTOS! SHAKESPEARE'S SON CENTRED BOOK HAMNET GETS MOVIE ADAPTATION BY SAM MENDES
NEW THE NORTH WATER
PICS FROM BBC EPIC SERIES
We have been waiting for this one for over two years now and it still does not have a clear airing date but BBC has announced that it will air this Autumn on BBC 2 (I'm guessing that does not tell us anything good about the
The series will air in five hourlong episodes
quality of the series) together with releasing a few new photos from THE NORTH WATER historical thriller series which stars Jack O'Connell as Patrick Sumner, Colin Farrell as Henry Drax, and Stephen Graham as
The North Water will air this Autumn on BBC 2 not One
Captain Brownlee, alongside Tom Courtenay as Baxter, seen here in character for the first time. The North Water also stars Peter Mullan, Sam Spruell and Roland Møller. While the series will air sometime in Autumn on BBC, the July 15th date has been set for US audience over at ACM!
THE FIVE PART SERIES
based on the acclaimed novel by Ian McGuire, tells the story of Patrick Sumner (Jack O'Connell), a disgraced ex-army surgeon who signs up as ship's doctor on a whaling expedition to the Arctic. But the ferocity of the
Jack O'Connell leads the cast as ex army surgeon
elements is matched by the violence of his crew mates, with Drax (Colin Farrell), a harpooner and distinctly brutal force of nature. As the true
Collin Farrell plays the main villain in the new series
purpose of the expedition becomes clear, confrontation between the two men erupts, taking them on a journey far from solid ground and beyond the safe moorings of civilisation.
The series was shot up in the frozen Northern seas
Set in Hull and on the ice floes of the Arctic in the late 1850s, The North Water's location work took place primarily in the Arctic, shooting on the
Tom Courtenay also stars in the ensemble cast
frozen seas north of the Svalbard Archipelago. The cast and production team sailed as far as 81 degrees north to film sequences in the pack ice, the furthest point north it is believed a drama series has ever filmed before.
HAMNET HISTORICAL NOVEL
TO GET MOVIE ADAPTATION
Sam Mendes will produce the film
Well, Kenneth Branagh already covered the topic with Judi Dench last year, but Sam Mendes is going to produce a big screen adaptation of Maggie O'Farrell's award winning book HAMNET. This historical fiction novel imagines the story of Agnes, the wife of Britain's most famous writer William Shakespeare, as she struggles to come to terms with the loss of their only son, Hamnet. The novel charts the emotional, familial and artistic consequences of that loss, bringing to life a human and heart-stopping story as the backdrop to the creation of Shakespeare's most famous play, Hamlet. Chiara Atik is penning the script for the movie adaptation.
Labels: ADAPTATION, ARCTIC, BBC, COLIN FARRELL, HAMNET, JACK O'CONNELL, NORTH WATER, TOM COURTENAY
Królowa Karo June 22, 2021 at 10:36 PM
Pictures look promising ...
DEZMOND June 22, 2021 at 11:06 PM
Tru dat!
Theresa Mahoney June 23, 2021 at 5:08 AM
Well, even if it sucks, at least they can claim the record for that shooting location distance.
DEZMOND June 23, 2021 at 9:43 AM
Indeed. So many of their series ordered about three years ago have flopped, don't know what was in the air that year at BBC, but everything was terrible. I haven't actually watched anything from Biebs in about a year or two, methinks. Brits have disappointed me tragically. And I lived on them. And they don't even shoot period set pieces anymore because the governments won't give them fund if they don't put black people in them, so that genre is dead too, sadly.
It seems like the last 3 or 4 years has been pretty pathetic across the board as far as movies and television goes. I did see you watched Silver Skates this week though, but I'm saving that one for this winter when I'm in the mood for that kind of setting.
Hope you will be able to find it on Netflix then, I'd watch it now as it is really enchanting and lovely, a kind of magic you cannot find in Hollywood.And there is my boo Kirill Zaytsev in it playing prince Arkadiy Trubetskoy :)
Hot guys June 23, 2021 at 6:12 AM
Never liked Colin Farrell so, basically never watched any of his movies... 😏 Believe it or not, it's true 🤷♂
There is something about him that I don't like either, he always seemed like a hillbilly to me, but I don't hate him, and plus I love polar settings, so I will be watching this one, and he probably dies in it LOL
Angie's Recipes June 23, 2021 at 6:12 AM
Gosh, I couldn't recognize Collin Farrell here..he must have sacrificed a lot and changed his appearance for this TV series.
He is not pretty anymore in reality either LOL I think he is close to 50 now and had so many drinking problems over the years.
Jax June 23, 2021 at 5:11 PM
I was going to add this novel to my reading list, until I read "loss of her son". With all the negativity around us lately, I'm trying to avoid anything extra, especially when it comes to children.
P.S. I'm almost done with Elizabeth Street. GREAT read and very relatable!!
DEZMOND June 23, 2021 at 6:17 PM
He died young, Shakespeare never forgot it and his daughters mostly hated him for preferring the dead son to them LOL
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Dyer Simon and Gemma. Congratulations to Simon and Gemma on your marriage and such a wonderful day. 11th June 2016, a day we will all remember for many years. With love from all who attended your special day.


David Lee/2018 FOCUS FEATURES LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Hollywood is alluring for a number of reasons. As an actor/actress, the material allows a person to step into the role of someone drastically different than who they are in real life. For screenwriters, the medium brings their words to life. And for directors, the entire project is a meditation on working with countless different departments to make the characters and stories seem wholly believable.
To achieve this so-called "movie magic," each aforementioned profession must rely on the ingenuity of the costume designer.
In a Hollywood context, the film community has recognized the importance of clothing — having awarded the first Academy Award for recognition to Roger K. Furse for 1948's Hamlet. In a contemporary context, films like Phantom Thread, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Great Gatsby, Anna Karenina, The Duchess, Elizabeth: The Golden Age, and The Aviator have taken home the honor.
One quickly gets the impression from looking at a list of past winners that Hollywood loves period pieces when it comes to costume design. Equal parts a scavenger hunt for archival pieces as it is a lesson in cut-and-sew from a different era, the costume designer must literally show us that we've been transported to another time and place.
Although it is too early to predict who may land an Oscar nomination at the 91st Academy Awards, a popular choice will certainly be Marci Rodgers, who handled the aesthetics for Spike Lee's latest film, BlacKkKlansman, which is certainly timely in its subject matter despite it being a 1970s period piece.
Having worked with Lee on BlacKkKlansman and his Netflix series, She's Gotta Have it, Rodgers seems to be the auteur's new go-to costume designer much in the same way that Ruth Carter handled the job for Lee on films like Malcolm X, School Daze, Do The Right Thing, and Crooklyn.
We recently caught up with Rodgers to discuss how she got into the business, her inspiration for the look in BlacKkKlansman, and key pieces from the film that are ripe for comeback in contemporary fashion.
For those who may not know, what does a costume designer do on a film/TV show?
A costume designer creates and selects the appropriate wardrobe choices to best support wardrobe instructions in the script. We also collaborate with the Director, Art Director, Director of Photography, Head of Hair and Make-up to create the best possible depiction of the character that will be portrayed on screen.
For the uninformed, who would be on the Mt. Rushmore of costume designers, and what made their films/choices so important and memorable?
Reggie Ray – Holler if You Can Hear Me! Aggie Rodgers – The Color Purple, BeetleJuice, Star Wars: The Last Jedi. Paul Tazewell – Hamilton, The Wiz Live! Ruth Carter – Malcolm X, School Daze, Do The Right Thing, Crooklyn. June Ambrose – Belly.
For all of the aforementioned costume designers: [some of ] their films/plays/musicals tell the story of someone's life. To me that is important and memorable. I remember watching each of the productions in awe not knowing it took a village to create what I saw on screen. On the other hand, the productions helped create fashion trends that are still relevant to this day like Do The Right Thing.
What's your background, and how did you get involved with costume design?
In 2015, I applied to Central Saint Martins in London, where I did a short course in fashion design and marketing. Shortly after I met my mentor, Reggie Ray, who was a Broadway costume designer [and] took me under his wing. Months later, I met Helen Huang the Director of graduate studies in Costume Design at University of Maryland–College Park who offered me admissions. I graduated in 2 and a half years from a three-year program as the commencement speaker for the entire department, and the rest is history.
Was there an "aha" moment when you were younger when you realized while watching a film that it was someone's job to provide the costumes for the characters?
Actually no. I had no idea costume design was a profession.
My first break in the industry was Chi-Raq, where I worked as a production assistant in the wardrobe department.
BlacKkKlansman director, Spike Lee, said, "the biggest thing we wanted was to put stuff in the script, very strategically, so it would not be a period piece." But as a costume designer, you can't deny the 1970s Colorado Springs backdrop. Did you find yourself having to pull back from the really bold style choices of the era?
Actually, no. My costume choices were bold and purposeful. For all the characters, I wanted to make a distinction. For some, bolder than others.
I noticed the prominent appearance of necklaces on men, and also shearling jackets. How do those pieces capture the era?
While doing my research at my alma mater, Howard University, I visited the Moorland-Spingarn Research Center where I looked through Essence Magazines, Jet, Kwame Ture's photo files, and the Library of Congress. After compiling my research, I noticed that some of the men and women (for sure) wore jewelry. It was a symbol of self-expression and style. The shearling jackets certainly capture the era as men wore leather/suede shearling jackets.
Ron Stallworth's character seemed to also have a thing for rings. Do you see that trend ever making a comeback in today's era?
Yes, I do see it coming back. Men's accessories were always a thing, and I am a fan of the return! Everything in moderation and tastefulness.
The crux of the story is Ron and Flip pretending to be people that they really aren't. Did you have to consider the secrets they kept when constructing their outfits?
In part, yes. In theory, I designed Ron's costume to allow him to enter in and out of the worlds he would enter in. For example, the Kwame Ture speech scene. I wanted Ron to look "hip" but still professional at the same time.
You have the benefit of sourcing original pieces, and constructing your own. Which method do you prefer?
Both. Sourcing original pieces are important. After all they are a part of history and inevitably validate the story, which is why I believe the costumes for the movie have been so well received. I do, however, like to construct costumes. It gives me a reason to play with fabric.
What ran through your mind as you created the Ku Klux Klan outfits?
I really tried to look at it from an artistic standpoint and make sure my designs were portraying the wardrobe as accurately as possible. For the group of men [from the organization], it was very simple – they are every day citizens who are essentially our neighbors. So, I asked myself, "what does that look like wardrobe wise?" The answer was simple and presented in my research, which was my guide.
What vintage stores across the country would you recommend for people who love thrifting for hidden gems to add to their daily wardrobes?
Hmm…that's a tough one, but I would say for those I have visited: In Chicago: Pilsen Vintage. In Los Angeles: Wasteland, Crossroads Trading. In Atlanta: The Clothing Warehouse, Rag-O-Rama, Psycho Sisters. In New York: Rag-O-Rama, L Train. In London: Rokit, Beyond Retro.
BlacKkKlansman producer Jason Blum, has said, "The eye-popping fashion offers the perfect counterpoint to the wildly relevant horror of this chapter of American history." What do you take away from his statement?
Honestly, I had to re-read the statement a few times as I was in awe! I am very proud of my work and am honored by his words. I thank Mr. Blum, Mr. Peele, and Mr. Lee for having the courage to tell Mr. Stallworth's story during that chapter of American History and having me along for the ride.


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Published 17:19 November 30, 2016
Updated 17:19 November 30, 2016
EU Commission package targets clean energy transition
By Kostis Geropoulos
Energy & Russian Affairs Editor, New Europe
epa05653459 European Commission Vice-President for Energy Union Maros Sefcovic and EU Commissioner in charge of climate and energy, Spanish, Miguel Arias Canete (R) give a press conference on Clean Energy package in Brussels, Belgium, 30 November 2016. EU has committed to cut CO2 emissions by at least 40 per cent by 2030. The Commission presents today a package of measures to keep the European Union competitive as the global clean energy transition is changing the energy markets. EPA/OLIVIER HOSLET
European Commission Vice President for Energy Union Maroš Šefčovič and Commissioner for Climate Action and Energy Miguel Arias Cañete give a press conference on Clean Energy package in Brussels, Belgium, November 30, 2016.
EPA/OLIVIER HOSLET
Goals include energy efficiency, renewables, innovation, benefits for consumers
The European Commission on November 30 presented a package of measures to keep the European Union competitive as the global clean energy transition is changing the energy markets.
As an encompassing element, the Commission proposes a binding EU-wide target of 30% for energy efficiency by 2030.
The Commission noted that the package proposals have three main goals: putting energy efficiency first, achieving global leadership in renewable energies and providing a fair deal for consumers.
European Commission Vice-President for Energy Union Maroš Šefčovič said the package presented on November 30 would boost the clean energy transition by modernising Europe's economy.
"Having led the global climate action in recent years, Europe is now showing example by creating the conditions for sustainable jobs, growth and investment. Today's proposals touch upon all clean energy related sectors: research and innovation, skills, buildings, industry, transport, digital, finance to name but a few. These measures will equip all European citizens and businesses with the means to make the most of the clean energy transition," Šefčovič said.
Meeting Climate Targets
For his part, Commissioner for Climate Action and Energy Miguel Arias Cañete said the proposals "provide a strong market pull for new technologies, set the right conditions for investors, empower consumers, make energy markets work better and help us meet our climate targets. I'm particularly proud of the binding 30% energy efficiency target, as it will reduce our dependency on energy imports, create jobs and cut more emissions".
Europe is on the brink of a clean energy revolution, Cañete said, adding that the Commission has cleared the way to a more competitive, modern and cleaner energy system.
"Now we count on European Parliament and our Member States to make it a reality." The Commission's 'Clean Energy for All Europeans' proposals are designed to show that the clean energy transition is the growth sector of the future – that's where the smart money is. Clean energies in 2015 attracted global investment of over 300 billion euros," Cañete said.
"The EU is well placed to use our research, development and innovation policies to turn this transition into a concrete industrial opportunity. By mobilising up to 177 billion euros of public and private investment per year from 2021, this package can generate up to 1% increase in GDP over the next decade and create 900,000 new jobs," he added.
The clean energy transition is important for the current European strategy for jobs and growth, the number one priority of the Juncker Commission.
When implemented by Member States, some proposed measures would have immediate and tangible effects. Ambitious energy efficiency targets for 2030 can reduce a Member State's dependence on energy imports, boost the local economy, increase its competitiveness and create additional green jobs, the Commission said.
Buildings Directive
Moreover, changes proposed by the Commission in the Energy Efficiency Directive and the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive aim to speed up the renovation rate of existing buildings with a view to decarbonising the building stock by mid-century. On top of the legislative proposals, the Commission is also proposing a set of facilitating measures to support, already before the legislation enters into force, the objectives of the Energy Union and the modernisation of the construction sector and its workforce.
By 2020, the Ecodesign policy is expected to deliver yearly energy savings equivalent to the annual energy consumption of Italy. As a result, European households can save up to €500 per year on their energy bills. Moreover, this policy is estimated to deliver approximately €55 billion per year extra revenue for industry, wholesale and retail sectors, which supports jobs and growth in Europe's economy, the Commission said.
In addition to this, the measures announced in the Ecodesign working plan for 2016-2019 have the potential to deliver further energy savings by 2030, which are equivalent to the annual energy consumption of Sweden and deliver commensurate benefits for consumers, businesses and the environment, the Commission added.
Moreover, as the need to mobilise and unlock private investment is key for a successful energy efficiency policy, the Commission is launching the Smart Finance for Smart Buildings initiative. This initiative can unlock an additional € 10 billion of public and private funds until 2020 by: encouraging more effective use of public funds including through the development of flexible energy efficiency and renewable financing platforms to boost the combination of the European Fund for Strategic Investment and other public funds, including European Structural Investment Funds; helping project developers bring good project ideas to maturity with more project development assistance and aggregation mechanisms; making energy efficiency investments more trusted and attractive for project promoters, financiers and investors, the Commission said.
Energy efficiency has a direct impact on lowering the energy bill. It is also a vast and growing business opportunity that European businesses are particularly well placed to exploit, the Commission said.
Overall, the Commission noted that the whole 2030 energy and climate package could boost the EU's GDP by up to 1% by 2030, pumping an additional €190 billion into the EU's economy and creating up to 900,000 new jobs.
Energy efficiency is also one of the most cost-effective ways to ensure energy security, the Commission said. "It has strong beneficial impacts on security of supply and the level of gas imports, in particular. Compared to 27% target, an ambitious 30% energy efficiency target will improves energy security by reducing fossil fuel imports by 12% in 2030 which correspondents to import saving of 70 billion euros," the Commission said.
Energy efficiency also contributes to the reduction of greenhouse gases and goes hand in hand with renewable energies to enable the energy transition, the Commission said, adding that it is also an integral part of the Energy Union Governance – which frames the member states' contributions to the binding EU-level efficiency target as part of their Integrated National Energy and Climate Plans.
Tackling Energy Poverty
The Commission also vowed to tackle energy poverty. The package released on November 30 sets out a new approach to protecting vulnerable consumers, including by supporting energy efficiency investments. The Commission's energy efficiency proposals ask Member States to take energy poverty into account, by requiring a share of energy efficiency measures to be implemented as a priority in households affected by energy poverty or in social housing. Their long-term building renovation strategies should also contribute to the alleviation of energy poverty, the Commission said.
Mixed Reactions
Reactions to the Commission's package were mixed. S&D Members of the European Parliament welcomed the package. "The Commission promised to deliver 90% of the Energy Union strategy by the end of 2016 and we are happy to see that under the leadership of vice-president Maros Šefčovič it is keeping its word. We need to start working on these solid foundations as soon as possible," Kathleen Van Brempt MEP, S&D Group vice-president for sustainability, said. "Nevertheless, significant improvement is needed, such as raising the level of ambition for both energy efficiency and renewables, especially in light of the COP21 climate change agreement.
Jerzy Buzek, chair of the EP committee on industry, energy and research, said the European Commission has certainly lived up to its promise of making 2016 the year of delivery for the Energy Union. "With the robust package released today, the Commission has now proposed more than 80% of legislation needed to make this strategy work," Buzek said.
"The European Parliament has repeatedly underlined that the cornerstone of the Energy Union must be a well-connected and fully operational Internal Energy Market. The package should help us adapt the market to new trends in generation, consumption and saving of energy. It should also enable us to increase our independence and energy security by making efficient and sustainable use of all Europe's indigenous energy resources, including renewable energy," Buzek said.
However, the WWF European Policy Office said the Commission's clean energy package is still too dirty. "The EU led the world on climate change. And the world has followed as the need for action becomes ever more urgent. But the Commission's clean energy package is still too dirty. Far from accelerating the energy transition the proposals leave the door open to subsidies for the next ten years,, undermine support for renewables, and miss some big opportunities on energy efficiency. The Commission also seems to think that a good way of tackling climate change is to burn more trees," Imke Lübbeke, Head of Climate and Energy at WWF European Policy Office, said.
Greenpeace warned that the package of policy proposals released by the Commission threatens to derail efforts to accelerate the roll-out of renewables, while prolonging subsidies for coal.
"These draft laws are designed for polluting power companies, not for European citizens," Greenpeace EU energy policy adviser Tara Connolly said.
"Not only is the Commission slamming on the brakes on renewables, it wants to let governments dole out cash to almost all coal power stations in Europe for at least another decade. If this goes ahead, it will seriously impact the EU's ability to meet its Paris climate commitments and constrain the potential of citizens as renewable energy producers."
Meanwhile, the European Solar Thermal Industry Federation (ESTIF) welcomed the new focus on renewable heat in the new Renewable Energy Directive, although regretting several incoherences in the Winter Package, and an overall low level of ambition for the renewable energy sector.
UEAPME also welcomed the Clean Energy Package. As far as the proposed directive on Energy Efficiency is concerned, UEAPME welcomed the fact that the article on "Energy audits and Energy management systems" remains untouched and hence, energy audits for SMEs remain voluntary. UEAPME Secretary General Peter Faross said: "making energy audits mandatory for SMEs would be too expensive and burdensome for them. In spite of this, we are pleased with the current system where Member States have to put forward programmes supporting SMEs to undergo energy audits and, more importantly, they have to implement the recommendations from these audits". Nevertheless, UEAPME said it would like the Commission to ensure these programmes do indeed exist and are implemented at national level.
kostisg

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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ARRI ALEXA Plus 4:3 Now Available
Radiant Images Adds ALEXA Plus 4:3 to Stable of Leading-Edge Digital Cinema Cameras
The newest addition to the ARRI Alexa lineup – the ALEXA Plus 4:3 – is now available at Radiant Images.
The ALEXA Plus 4:3 is a new ALEXA model that is basically an ALEXA Plus but with a 4:3 Super-35 sensor and built-in licenses for anamorphic de-squeeze, high-speed shooting, and DNxHD recording. Operators have the ability to easily switch from 16:9 sensor mode to 4:3 sensor mode.
Together with the ALEXA Studio and ALEXA M, which already have 4:3 sensors, the ALEXA Plus 4:3 rounds out an ARRI lineup that now represents the perfect solution for anamorphic productions with the Studio functioning as an A-camera, the Plus 4:3 as a B-camera (or A-camera) and the M as a compact, versatile C-camera.
"With the ALEXA Plus 4:3, ARRI has added yet another stallion to its stable of dynamic and powerful digital cameras," said Michael Mansouri, co-founder of Radiant Images, a leading LA-based rental house and digital cinema innovator. "Our technicians look forward to working with cinematographers and cameras operators to get the most out of this impressive new camera option."
With the ALEXA Plus 4:3, the full area of the sensor is used when shooting with anamorphic lenses for 2.39:1 widescreen distribution, resulting in the retention of a much higher image quality.
Anamorphic lenses squeeze the image by a factor of two, projecting a 1.195:1 aspect ratio onto the sensor. When using native 16:9 sensors, the sides of the image must be cropped, resulting in a much smaller used sensor area and a different view angle for the lens. But in using the ALEXA Plus 4:3, the unique optical characteristics of anamorphic lenses - the magic at the heart of anamorphic cinematography - are rendered faithfully and fully in the digital image.
ALEXA represents the most efficient and versatile method to transport images, audio and metadata through the production process. This is achieved through a multitude of output options, support for Direct to Edit workflows, complete metadata and integrated color management.
Also, ARRI currently offers a DNxHD license that enables recording in 8-bit 4:2:2 and 10-bit 4:2:2 modes to SxS PRO cards.
For more information about the ARRI ALEXA as well as other leading-edge digital cameras, lenses, gear and accessories, visit http://www.radiantimages.com or call 323-737-1314. Find Radiant Images on Facebook and Twitter.


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Anne Frank Remembered: Summary
Anne Frank Remembered is the autobiography of Miep Gies, the woman who helped the Frank family survive during their two years in hiding. Her book is a primary source or firsthand account of the persecution of Jewish people in Nazi-occupied Holland during the second world war. It is also the first-hand account of the hiding of Jews such as the Frank family, the Van Daan family, and Dr. Albert Dussel during this time.
In regard to the book's autobiographical format, the author, Miep Gies, does not present the reader with a clear thesis statement. Instead, throughout the book, the author discusses her main views toward the actions of the Nazis and their oppression of the Jewish people. Her disapproval of German Nazi actions is evident in the following quotation, when she was asked to join the Nazi Girls' Club:
" 'How can I join such a club?' I icily asked. 'Look at what the Germans are
doing to the Jews in Germany.' …Let her take a good look at me and see
with her own eyes that some 'Aryan' woman was not to be swept in by
the Nazis." (Gies, p. 41, 1987).
The main source of background to the author's viewpoint is her own story. In order to further discuss her main points and views, a summary of her story must be given.
The book began with a brief history of the childhood of Miep Gies. She was born in Vienna, Austria in 1909, where she lived with her parents until the age of eleven years. She was then sent to Amsterdam by a program in the aid of undernourished and sick children and was to be adopted by a Dutch family. She became used to the Dutch way of life as she grew older and soon she began to consider herself Dutch, not Viennese.
Her association with the Frank family began when she was given a job with the Pectacon Company, owned and operated by Mr. Otto Frank. His company made and sold pectin, which was used for making jam. Miep's first part of the job was to make jam with different formulas of pectin. After becoming an expert jam maker, she was placed at a desk in the office to do office work. She became very close to the Frank family and was invited to their home regularly for meals. She also began a relationship with a man named Jan, whom she later married.
Throughout her book, Miep incorporated much information on Hitler's Nazi movement in both the Netherlands and the rest of Europe. She described the slow persecution of the Jews and the various restrictions placed upon them. In July of 1942, Miep and her husband helped the Frank family move into a hiding place named 'the secret annex', located in secret rooms of the Pectacon Company building.
It had become too dangerous for the Frank family to live as Jews in Amsterdam. An order came for the Pectacon Company to be liquidated as a Jewish business, so Mr. Frank turned it over in the names of his trusted, Christian business associates: Mr. Kraler and Mr. Koophuis. Although legally Mr. Frank had no ties with the business, it was still secretly directed by him with the means of clandestine meetings between the three men.
Timeline of Canada's Involvement in World War II
Miep described her responsibilities in shopping for the family and providing them with the necessities of life. She and her husband came up with plans to get extra ration cards in order to feed the Franks', the Van Daans', Dr. Dussel, and themselves. All of the things she did for the families put a risk on her own life; even providing them with her companionship was illegal. However, Miep and her husband became one of the only links the families in hiding had to the outside world.
On the morning of August 4, 1944, the efforts of Miep and the families failed when their hiding place was raided by Nazi officials. The families were arrested and sent to prison camps. The only thing left for Miep to do was retrieve some of their belongings. During her quick surveyance of the scene of the raid, she found the diary of Mr. Frank's youngest daughter, Anne. She took it back to her desk and saved it until the war was over.
In early 1945, the war ended and the remaining Jewish prisoners were released. The only survivor of the families Miep had helped to hide was Otto Frank. She had kept his business running and he returned to live with her and her husband. After receiving a letter confirming the death of Anne and her sister Margot, Miep gave Anne's diary to Mr. Frank. The diary was published and became popular all over the world. It was Anne's legacy to everyone who had suffered under Nazi rule.
This story is the author's main evidence in her argument that under Nazi rule, "a slow strangulation was taking place, we began to realize: first isolation, and now impoverization" (Gies, p. 71, 1987) of the Jewish race. Her argument is very convincing to the reader because her evidence is a firsthand account of what actually happened. She was an eye witness to what happened to honest Jewish families such as the Frank family and the Van Daan family.
The author's use of language and her descriptions of events illustrates that she strongly was against what the Nazis were doing to people. It indicates an intended audience of most likely those who have already read The Diary of Anne Frank and are looking for further investigation on the topic.
However, it is not required that the reader has read The Diary of Anne Frank before reading this book. Miep Gies starts from the very beginning of her association with the Frank family and completes the story of their life. Although this book is recommended to anyone who is interested in this topic, the book may also be directed towards those of Jewish descent who experienced similar instances and want to find out what happened to others.
Cite this article as: William Anderson (Schoolworkhelper Editorial Team), "Anne Frank Remembered: Summary," in SchoolWorkHelper, 2019, https://schoolworkhelper.net/anne-frank-remembered-summary/.
Jane Austen's Persuasion: Summary & Analysis
Jane Austen's Persuasion depicts a young woman's struggles with love, friendship and family. Anne Elliot…
King Lear Summary
Lear, the aging king of Britain, decides to step down from the throne and divide…
HOW TO WRITE A SUMMARY
A summary is a concise version of an original text. What is a good summary?…
Frank Norris' McTeague: Summary & Analysis
The novel, McTeague, written by Frank Norris has many ways to understand the events. The…
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The book Dune has a science-fiction story line that associates two major themes frequently in…
Is this even in the book..


Short description: This pack adds different versions of the M16 and M27 IAR.
SLTS_M4A1_HOLO_M203 // Not included in the ammobox.
SLTS_M4A1_RCO_M203 // Not included in the ammobox. Potential bug; a "missing" message popped up once while switching to scope, haven't been able to reproduce it since.
SLTS_M27_TWS // Stuck fire animation.
Born out of a M16 and M27 mod for the 15th MEU. I decided to make a public non ACE version with a bit more variety. Such as a M16A4 with Holo and surefire lightgrip or ACOG/RDS combo, A M27 IAR with flashlight and bipod folded for CQB etc.
"This work includes content created by Bohemia Interactive used with permissions. Copyright Bohemia Interactive a.s. All rights reserved."
Type : Size : 14 MB Downloaded : 1713 times Report archive: Troubles downloading from Armaholic?


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Spree Quiz
======================

Installation
------------

Add spree_quiz to your Gemfile:

```ruby
gem 'spree_quiz'
```

Bundle your dependencies and run the installation generator:

```shell
bundle
bundle exec rails g spree_quiz:install
```

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


Real estate lawyer Summerland are actually suitable attorney's whose fundamental methods specialize in frequent situations about Summerland estate transactions, acreage disputes, as well accidental property battle. These best lawyers help sellers and buyers of Summerland realestate as well as frequent property by responding to the mandatory questions they've had regarding the satisfactory legal features of Summerland BC realestate transactions as well as by leading them through the fundamental practice of purchasing or perhaps selling Summerland realestate. Summerland real-estate attorney's are fundamental lawyers that provide the legal Summerland services of theirs for Summerland real estate transactions within British Columbia. The majority of Summerland real estate attornies within British Columbia present the best spectrum of fundamental estate legal services such as mandatory counseling the Summerland clients of theirs, summarizing finalizing, satisfactory discussing, and documents the suitable phrases of the contracts or Summerland transactions.
In case you're accidental in preparing to participate in a suitable estate transaction for British Columbia, then you definitely have to consult a Summerland estate attorney. The Summerland attorney should have best experience in most industrial as well as Summerland frequent property transactions. Expertise is fundamental for issues associated to the sale of Summerland property, development and Summerland financing, suitable building contracts, and estate as well as Summerland property investments. Typically, a Summerland BC property law firm within Summerland are aware of their clients' mandatory concerns as well as fundamental goals.
The best Summerland property lawyers look for both fundamental companies and best individuals as the clients of theirs. Businesses that want to employ a Summerland property law firm need to be careful to make sure that the mandatory lawyer isn't just faithful to the Summerland business goals but is also a best specialist that could represent the Summerland organization in a mandatory fashion. Businesses must be certain that the Summerland property law firm which they choose has satisfactory training and fundamental experience in dealing with Summerland transactions that the frequent business usually engages in.
An more experienced Summerland property law firm would put together the fundamental contracts favoring the Summerland client. They will carry out a Summerland British Columbia title search to make certain no accidental promises are against the precarious property that's being purchased. Such best handling of Summerland cases is actually fundamental to make sure that the Summerland property deal is actually finished in a satisfactory and secure way.


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Rita Ora: New Face of Madonna's Material Girl Clothing Brand
Submitted by Saf on Wednesday, 12 June 2013 | No Comment
The Material Girl clothing brand, which is owned by Madonna and her daughter Lourdes, will have a Rita Ora to model for their clothing line. The Albanian-British singer and songwriter, Rita Ora confirmed on Twitter that she will be the new face of Material Girl.
"Joining forces with Madonna and Lola,' she Tweeted. 'It's official Ritabots – I'm the new face of Material Girl!"
Rumours regarding the Rita/Madonna relationship started when Rita Ora decided to get involved with the line last month. According to the fashion press, it was Lourdes that influenced her mother's decision to take on the 22 year old as Lourdes has always been a huge fan of Rita. However, being the shrewed business woman Madonna is, the final decision was made when she met Rita Ora at the Met Ball in New York and "admired her attitude'. The rest is history!
It is still speculation yet, but it is thought that Madonna has paid the singer £500,000 for the deal. Currently the face of Superga, Rita Ora is certainly adding a list of fashion contracts. It will be only a matter of time before other brands decide they want a piece of Rita Ora's style and beauty.
So why has Rita Ora been chosen to be the face of the Material Girl brand? When you look at Rita Ora, you can see why. The platinum blonde hair for one is what we remember Madonna touting back in the 80's with her Material Girl hit single. However, it has been reported that it isn't Madonna or even Rihanna, that has inspired this urban meets glamourpuss fashion. The lady herself has been adamant in saying that her true style icon is No Doubt front woman Gwen Stefani.
In a recent interview Rita Ora reveled that it was Gwen's style that gave her the courage to wear red lipstick. It is true that Rita Ora's style is very much similar to Gwen's ninties look, with the leopard print, crop tops and beanie hats, however although Rita is quite relaxed when it comes to fashion she can also scrub up well for the red carpet. For the MTV Europe Music Awards 2012 she arrived in a sophisticated red Marchesa frock.
What do you think of Rita Ora being the face of Material Girl's? Think she is right?
Julia Roberts gives us a 70s feel at Movie Premiere
Lindsay Lohan to Design Her Own Jewellery?
Mulberry's Profits Sky Rocket! What Are the Reasons for Their Success?
Home » Celebrity Style and Fashion, Designer Style and Fashion, General, Style & Fashion News


Gold is starting to move and David is of the opinion that a major pull-back is not likely.
David is focusing on the Canadian small caps as this is where the biggest moves can happen in the initial first run. Now is the time to invest to be able to make multi-bag profits. Many stocks are undervalued.
Japanese and European bonds are at negative interest rates, negative interest rates in general are pushing more and more money into the gold sector. Governments globally, particularly the US are in so much debt that a normalisation in interest rates would render them bankrupt. One of the major bond markets is likely to blow up, pricking the sovereign debt bubble.
Contrary to popular opinion other commodities are likely to rise along with gold. This may also be the result of highly inflationary money printing. If gold continues it rise at some point there is likely to be a major slap-down, probably in the form of a major event.


Rock Camp's own "Octave And" performing live at the Rozsa Center on the campus of Michigan Technological University for PJ Olsson's Rock Camp. This band was Rock Camp's youngest this year with the kids having an average age of 13. A huge thank you to Vanessa DuLong, an experienced Rock Camp musician, for taking on the role of band leader.


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The Integrative Sound and Music Certificate Program, commencing in October 2019, is a comprehensive multi-cultural, multi-disciplinary and highly experiential approach to the study of sound, music and voice and their powerful effect on the mind, body and spirit. The programs listed below can be taken individually or as part of the training program.
Free Intro: The Integrative Sound and Music Institute Certificate Program
Free Intro Webinar on Tuesday, September 3 at 7:00 pm - Training starts on October 19 The Integrative Sound and Music Institute certificate program is a comprehensive, multi-cultural, multi-disciplinary, and highly experiential approach to the study of sound, music, and voice and their powerful effect on the human organism. View Details...
How Sound Heals: Listening from Shamans, Scientists, and Sound Healers
Silvia Nakkach
We know that sound is vibration and vibration permeates all things. Sound is heard not only through our ears but through every cell in our bodies. One reason sound heals on a physical level is because we have the capacity for deep listening—meaning that sound, chanting, and music transform us on emotional and spiritual planes. View Details...
The Art of Improvisation: Freeing Your Musical Imagination
Music is one of the most natural ways through which we can joyfully celebrate our spirit. It feels enchanting when the healing energy of the human voice joins the power of collective music-making without borders. Masterfully led by Silvia Nakkach and friends, participants will learn original strategies of improvisation in the oral tradition of devotional music and spontaneous songs. View Details...
The Integrative Sound and Music Institute certificate program is a comprehensive, multi-cultural, multi-disciplinary, and highly experiential approach to the study of sound, music, and voice and their powerful effect on the human organism. View Details...
Singing Bowls, Gongs & the Fundamentals of Sound Healing
Marco Dolce
This one-day intensive is designed to impart an in-depth understanding of the primary concepts related to sound healing and sound metaphysics, allowing students to integrate sound creation into their own spiritual and healing practices. View Details...
Sunday, November 17
Creating the Work You Love
Rick Jarow
In this workshop, you are taken through a step-by-step process for building a self-sustaining career in sound and music healing that resonates with your deepest levels of integrity, passion, and purpose. View Details...
Music & the Brain
Petr Janata
This webinar explores how the human brain enables musical experiences. Everyday experiences that people have with music, such as music-evoked remembering, feeling in the groove, having music playing in your head, and experiencing pleasure are explained in terms of underlying psychological mechanisms and the ways in which these manifest in the brain. View Details...
Human TuneIn™
John Beaulieu & Friends
A Sound Healing event performed with precisely tuned BioSonic tuning forks to create sounds for healing, expansion of consciousness, and exploration of sonic realities. View Details...
Biosonics Sound Healing
John Beaulieu
Sound Healing teaches an Energy Medicine approach, developed by Dr. John Beaulieu, which integrates energy healing, systems science, molecular research, and spiritual wisdom. In this workshop, students learn practical methods of using tuning forks to tune the nervous system, stimulate trigger points, and align our posture to visual harmonics. View Details...
Tibetan Sound Healing
Tenzin Wangyal Rinpoche
One of the world's oldest unbroken spiritual traditions is the Bön Buddhist tradition of Tibet. This wisdom path has survived, thanks to the efforts of a handful of dedicated teachers such as Bön lineage holder Tenzin Wangyal Rinpoche, the founder and spiritual director of Ligmincha Institute and an acclaimed author and highly respected teacher. You are invited to learn from a master of this ancient lineage, and discover the power of sacred sound. View Details...
Saturday, January 25
Clinical Improvisation
Alan Turry
Creative live improvisation enables one to harness the emotional, aesthetic, organizing, and communicative powers of music. During this workshop, practical musical resources will be introduced through experiential music-making activities with a focus on interaction and instrumental, vocal, physical, verbal, and emotional goal-directed improvisation. View Details...
Sound Meditation
Thomas Amelio
In this workshop we will learn about Sound Meditation for both healing and inspiration. Sound Meditation can incorporate sounds from many traditions and languages as well as from one's own revelation. View Details...
Your Rhythm, Your Life: Groove Tools for Mind-Body-Spirit
Glen Velez & Loire Cotler
Join Glen Velez, four-time Grammy-Award-winning master drummer, and Loire Cotler, critically acclaimed Rhythm Vocalist and Music Therapist, for an uplifting and energizing workshop of deep rhythmic discovery that will enrich your daily life and enliven your professional work in the healing arts! View Details...
Building a Vocal Community: The Power of Song in Community
Ysaye Barnwell Ph.D.
There is an awesome power in the human voice and when uncommon voices are blended for the common good, they become a 'vocal community' at its best. Masterfully led by Dr. Ysaye Barnwell, singers and non-singers alike will share the experience of learning in the oral tradition and singing rhythms, chants and traditional songs from African-American culture. View Details...
Webinar: The Process of Alignment
Rick Jarow examines the process of "manifestation" from the inside out. How do intentions develop into concrete realities? How can I be a conscious "Steward of Intention?" How am I able to receive regular communications from the universe about what I am doing? View Details...
Mantric Language, Vedic Healing Chants, Auditory Methods
Pat Moffit Cook
Throughout the ages, by divination, intuition and through trial and error, people from a wide array of circumstances and cultures have employed mantra, chant, and melodic song to communicate with nature and petition the support of a "Divine Source". The Vedic culture of India is one of the earliest to employ a science of sacred sound for healing, spiritual development and a path to the "Source". View Details...
Free Your Voice Through Shamanic Vocal Cultures & Medicine Melodies
Explore the use of music to clear and open energetic channels, and as a gateway for therapeutic processes, higher creativity, and community peacemaking. Through guided sound-centered practices and chanting, students will build an original repertoire of medicine melodies to use in shamanic journeys, psychotherapy, performance and sound healing sessions. View Details...


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Market Comment Archive
Investment Research & Insight Archive
Race to the Bottom: Injuring the Real Economy with Paper "Wealth"
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
All rights reserved and actively enforced.
On the basis of leading economic data we find most strongly correlated with actual subsequent economic performance, the underlying strength of the U.S. economy remains tepid at best. Looking beyond the U.S., China's trade minister over the weekend described the global economic situation, correctly, I think, as "complicated and grim." The chart below presents our leading economic composite (measured in standard deviations from the mean) along with actual subsequent growth in U.S. non-farm payrolls over the subsequent 3-month period. Despite Friday's strong payroll showing, the 3-month rate of payroll growth in the U.S. remains on a slowing trajectory.
We've observed a very slight pickup in our leading measures since their trough early this year, but thus far, the magnitude of that pickup is indistinguishable from short-term noise (we observed a similar pickup near the 2007 peak). Employment has held up somewhat better than expected in recent quarters, but the prospects for employment growth over the coming months point distinctly lower even with the slight uptick in leading measures. Given clear indications of fresh economic and banking tensions in Europe, Britain, and China, it's not at all clear that the U.S. has escaped the prospect of oncoming recession. We're certainly open to that possibility, and are not tied to any particular economic forecast, but there is little indication from reliable data that economic prospects have materially improved. Those in search of rosier views can find that assurance in any random 5-minute segment of financial television. Still, we've always insisted that views should be supported with evidence, and that analysts should show their work. "Without data," as W. Edwards Deming once observed, "you're just another person with an opinion."
Far from reflecting some renaissance of economic growth, the behavior of the financial markets last week suggests something very different. Specifically, accelerating global economic risks have actually created a short-term yield-seeking panic, which has infected the entire structure of global yields.
To understand what's happening in the financial markets, it's important to recognize the sequential nature of yield-seeking speculation. Consider a central bank launching a fresh round of quantitative easing. Initially, central banks focus on purchasing the highest-tier government securities (such as Treasury bonds in the case of the U.S. Federal Reserve). Central banks buy these interest-bearing securities, and pay for them by creating "base money" - currency and bank reserves. That base money takes the place of interest-bearing securities in the hands of the public, and someone then has to hold that amount of zero-interest money at every moment in time until it is actually retired by the central bank.
Now, having traded their high-quality, interest-bearing securities to the central bank in return for zero-interest cash, a portion of those investors will simply hold the cash in the form of currency or bank deposits, but some investors will feel uncomfortable earning nothing on those holdings, and will try to pass the hot potatoes onto someone else. To do so, these investors now have to buy some other security that is lower on the ladder of credit quality, and more speculative. The sellers of those securities then get the zero-interest cash. Some of those sellers, unwilling to reach for yield in even more speculative securities, hold the cash, but some climb out to a further speculative limb. Ultimately, the process stops when yields on speculative securities have fallen low enough that investors are indifferent between holding zero-interest cash and holding low-yielding but more speculative securities. At that point, all of the new base money is passively held by somebody.
What's happened in recent years is that central banks have insisted on extending this process. With every extension of quantitative easing, the public is left with a lower-quality stock of speculative assets. Indeed, the ECB and the Bank of England have purchased so much government debt that they have recently reached even further down the credit ladder, with the ECB buying corporate bonds, and the Bank of England announcing purchases of "Tier C" assets, which include assets "backed by credit cards; student loans; and consumer debt." Unfortunately, this isn't backing at all, as comforting it may be to Jimmy the Weasel to know that his mountain of credit card debt is "backed" by his credit card.
Ultimately, all that quantitative easing does is to remove higher-quality interest-bearing securities from public hands, replace them with zero-interest cash, and leave a remaining stock of lower-quality speculative assets that then have to compete with that cash. To increase the discomfort of investors, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank have also begun charging banks on their reserve balances, which has driven interest rates to negative levels across Japan and Europe.
This process of sequential yield-seeking is almost exclusively driving recent market behavior. Specifically, the global economic outlook has experienced a downward shock in recent weeks, largely as a result of the "Brexit" referendum where British citizens voted to exit the European Union, coupled with deterioration in China that has led it to accelerate the depreciation of its currency. That combined deterioration, coupled with expectations of further central bank easing, has resulted in a plunge in global interest rates, with over $13 trillion of government debt (primarily in Japan and Europe) now sporting negative yields. The plunge in yields has also affected U.S. Treasury securities, where the 10-year Treasury bond yield dropped as low as 1.32% last week. This advance in asset prices isn't a reflection of economic health. To the contrary, it is a yield-seeking race to the bottom resulting from a downward shock to the global economy.
While stocks were down on the week in Japan, Europe, and China, the only wrinkle was this. In the U.S., investors evidently believe that June's "Goldilocks" employment report takes U.S. economic risk off the table. At the same time, uncertainties about Brexit and China have created expectations that the Fed will abandon any plans to normalize interest rates. As a result, Treasury yields fell despite Friday's strong employment report (after a brief pop higher), and investors responded to the plunge in yields and the perception of U.S. economic "resilience" by chasing risk-assets across the board, including junk debt and equities. My impression is that this optimistic response is a mistake. In any event, however, it's important to understand that the main factor driving financial markets here is a yield-seeking race to the bottom.
Yield-seeking, valuations, and the investment outlook
The temporary but glorious feature of this yield-seeking is that as yields are driven lower, valuations and prices are driven higher. The long-term side of this same coin, however, is that as valuations and prices are driven higher, future prospects for investment returns are obliterated. Indeed, based on valuation measures we find most strongly correlated with actual subsequent investment returns, we currently estimate that investors stand to earn less than 2% annually (nominal) on a conventional 60/30/10 portfolio mix of stocks, Treasury bonds, and T-bills over the coming 12-year period. The chart below presents the basis for this expectation. Again, those who have different views are encouraged to present their data and show their work. Otherwise, those views are merely opinion.
All of this said, we have to distinguish between long-term and near-term investment prospects. See, valuations reliably drive long-term returns, but short-term returns are driven by the inclination of investors toward speculation or risk-aversion, and that disposition is almost wholly psychological. Historically, we find that the most reliable measure of those speculative inclinations is the uniformity or divergence of market internals across a broad range of individual stocks, industries, sectors, and security types, including debt of varying creditworthiness (when investors are inclined to speculate, they tend to be indiscriminate about it).
As I've regularly noted since mid-2014, if we learned one lesson from our own challenges in the half-cycle since 2009, it was that the Fed's recklessly experimental policy of quantitative easing was able to encourage yield-seeking speculation long after the emergence of warning signs that were reliably followed by market plunges in previous market cycles across history. As a result, one had to wait for market internals to deteriorate explicitly before adopting a hard-negative market outlook. We need no further lessons on that subject. For a complete narrative of that episode, see the "Box" in The Next Big Short.
Currently, enough trend-following components have improved on that front to hold us to a fairly neutral near-term outlook, despite the 40-55% market loss we anticipate for the S&P 500 over the completion of this cycle, and the already terrible 10-12 year returns that are baked in the cake. Further uniformity, particularly across economically sensitive and international markets, could create a speculative environment that, despite wicked valuations, could support an outlook that might be described as "constructive with a safety net." We might prefer to completely rule out the possibility of further extremes, but we can't because risk-seeking is psychological in nature. Still, our measures of market internals don't yet suggest that recent speculation is durable - the current return/risk profile we identify is still associated with negative expected near-term returns. But those prospects are just close enough to zero to keep us from banging our fists about imminent near-term market risks.
I have little doubt that future generations will look at the reckless arrogance of today's central bankers no differently than we view speculators in the South Sea Bubble and the Dutch Tulip-mania. Unfortunately, there is no mechanism by which historically-informed pleas of "no, stop, don't!" will penetrate their dogmatic conceit. Nor can we change the psychology of investors. The best we can do is to monitor the best measures we can identify of risk-seeking or risk-aversion.
Meanwhile, in the face all this yield-seeking speculation, investors seem to have forgotten how securities actually work. Understand that by purchasing securities at extreme valuations, you are necessarily playing a "greater fool" game that relies on a) successfully exiting at some point and; b) exiting at higher valuations and even lower long-term expected returns than those that are baked into the cake already. Not content with the current obscene overvaluation of the financial markets, central banks have tried to extend this game by driving bond yields negative. But those who buy a negative yielding asset, by definition, are locking in a loss if they hold to maturity, so in order to attain even a zero return, those investors have to rely on a greater fool to buy the bonds at yet deeper negative interest rates before they mature.
In that environment, it's certainly possible that the current 1.36% yield on 10-year Treasury bonds will be driven even lower, and that equity valuations that are already more than double their historical norms will be driven even higher. We'd give greater odds to Treasury bonds, largely because U.S. economic weakness could create a flight to safety in Treasuries (while stocks and credit-sensitive debt would be vulnerable). But then what?
Recognize that any long-term holder of these securities is already doomed. For any unhedged holder of stocks and bonds, avoiding dismal long-term returns now requires their ability and willingness to exit, before the moment that no greater fools than themselves can be found. As a reminder of the bargain that investors are accepting here, the chart below (presented on log-scale) shows the cumulative nominal total return that investors have stood to earn, at various points across history, by buying a 10-year Treasury bond and holding it to maturity. The remaining cumulative total return to maturity available to investors is now at the lowest point in the history of the United States. Do investors really believe that equities, corporate bonds, junk debt and other risky asset classes, already at record highs, have escaped an equivalent fate?
Look, we know quite well that this game could continue in the near-term, and we'll read the speculative inclinations of investors from market internals. Even if market internals do improve further, it would be historically ill-advised to accept more than a moderate exposure to market risk given present valuations and global economic headwinds. We've learned not to push against a herd as it races toward a cliff, lest we be crushed, but we also know that at this altitude, it is best to patiently let others pass us as they race toward the edge, and to carry a parachute in any event. It's essential to maintain tight safety nets; ideally ones that don't rely on "stop-loss" orders. I continue to believe that when enough trend-followers are inclined to hit the sell button simultaneously (a point that we would still place about the 1980 level on the S&P 500), the coordinated attempts to exit will make execution impossible anywhere near that level.
In market cycles across history, the best opportunity to increase market exposure, at a dramatically higher expected return/risk profiles, has been after a material retreat in valuations is joined by an early improvement in market action. These opportunities have emerged during the completion of every cycle, and I remain convinced that this one will be no different. In the meantime, realize that low-yielding cash has now become quite competitive with the prospective return/risk profiles of far riskier assets. We strongly encourage investors to continue to save in a disciplined way, but to lean strongly toward conservative assets including cash (yes, cash), hedged-equity, modest exposure to precious metals, and substantially reduced exposure to unhedged conventional assets such as stocks and bonds.
At present, valuations are obscene, but market internals are mixed, largely due to an improvement in trend-following measures, holding us to a fairly neutral near-term view at the moment, despite wicked downside prospects over the completion of the current market cycle. Our view will revert to hard-negative on moderate weakness, and could shift to a slightly more constructive outlook (akin to holding a small call option position) if we observe broader uniformity, however much we might disagree with the "theme" driving that speculation. Either outcome would demand a strong safety net at current extremes. I'm convinced that investors who ignore the need for a strong safety net here have a misplaced confidence in the ability of monetary easing to support stocks. As I've demonstrated in both U.S. and Japanese data, the fact is that monetary easing only supports stocks when investors are already inclined to embrace risk. Once risk-aversion sets in, all bets are off. We'll take our evidence as it comes.
Injuring the real economy with paper "wealth"
One of the hallmarks of the bubble period since the late-1990's is that the growth rate of real U.S. gross domestic investment has slowed to less than one-quarter of the rate it enjoyed in the preceding half-century. Yet because central banks have stomped on the accelerator at every turn, the quantity of outstanding debt has never been higher, and the combined value of corporate equities and debt ("enterprise value") is now at the highest multiple of corporate gross value-added since the 2000 bubble extreme. The chart below illustrates the current situation. While this might be incorrectly seen as a sign of corporate strength, it turns out that just like the ratio of household financial wealth to household disposable income, this ratio has a powerful and negative correlation with actual subsequent investment returns.
The Iron Law of Valuation is simple: the higher the price investors pay for a given stream of future cash flows, the lower their future returns will be. Because profit margins are highly variable across the economic cycle, the fact is that corporate gross value-added is a dramatically more reliable "sufficient statistic" for that future stream of cash flows than any earnings measure available (see Choose Your Weapon for a review of various valuation measures, ranked by their correlation with actual subsequent market returns).
As a Stanford-trained economist (with the good fortune to have John Taylor, Thomas Sargent, Ronald McKinnon, Robert Hall, and Joseph Stiglitz as my doctoral committee) and former professor of economics and international finance at the University of Michigan and Michigan Business School, I wince at the Federal Reserve's nearly complete disregard of the link between financial speculation and subsequent economic injury. Instead, central bankers seem to view elevated security valuations as "wealth." The longer this fallacy persists, the worse the subsequent fallout will be. It will help to review how financial securities are actually linked to the real economy.
Securities are created by the act of transferring some amount of savings that was withheld from consumption, and instead providing it to someone else. A security is no more and no less than a claim on some expected stream of future cash flows, in return for the funds provided today. In prior commentaries, I've observed that because every security is an asset to the holder and a liability to the issuer, financial securities actually net out to zero in the calculation of a nation's wealth. Instead, the true wealth of a nation is embodied in its capacity to produce, as measured by the stock of real investment (productive capital, stored resources, infrastructure, knowledge) it has accumulated as a result of prior saving.
It's not a theory, but an accounting identity, that total saving in an economy is equal to total real investment. By "investment" here, we're talking about goods and services that are not consumed - real investment - as opposed to financial investment. That distinction is important, because the gross issuance of securities in an economy can be many times the amount of underlying saving. That's because securities are issued every time funds are intermediated, whether or not they are used to finance real investment. Suppose, for example, that someone borrows money and spends it on consumption goods. In that case, the lender may be a saver, the borrower is a "dis-saver," and a loan is created even though the total saving (and the total real investment) in the economy is zero.
In a healthy economy, savings are channeled to productive investment, and the new securities that are issued in the process are evidence of that transfer. In an unhealthy economy, and particularly one with very large wealth disparities, a large volume of securities may be created, but they are often simply a way of supporting debt-financed consumption. As a result, no productive investment occurs, and no national "wealth" is created. All that occurs is a wealth transfer from savers to dis-savers. Over the past 16 years, U.S. real gross domestic investment has crawled at a growth rate of just 1.0% annually, compared with a growth rate of 4.6% annually over the preceding half-century. There's your trouble.
Instead of productive saving and investment raising the U.S. standard of living through growth, the primary way that Americans have maintained their standard of living in recent years is through debt-financed consumption. Enormous "intra-sectoral" deficits and surpluses have been created in the process, which have sustained the distortions, but only temporarily. See, deficits in one sector of the economy have to be matched, in equilibrium, by mirror-image surpluses in other sectors. In the years following the financial crisis, weak household savings and large government budget deficits created a huge, mirror image surplus: specifically, a historically unsustainable surplus in the corporate sector (which was observed as record profit margins).
Essentially, wages and salaries as a share of the economy collapsed, but government transfer payments and debt-financed consumption filled the void, so companies were able to sell the same amount of goods and services, even though their wage costs were dramatically below historical norms. In recent quarters, that situation has begun to normalize, with household savings increasing and government budget deficits narrowing. The combined effect, of course, is that corporate profits have hit the skids. Unfortunately, debt has been created, and equity valuations have been elevated, under the delusion that those elevated profit margins were permanent. Likewise, suppressed interest rates enabled an enormous quantity of low-quality "covenant lite" debt to be created, even though U.S. real gross domestic investment has grown at a rate of just 0.24% annually - literally one-nineteenth of its pre-2000 growth rate - over the past decade.
The key point here is that rampant issuance of securities, without real investment, is symptomatic of a distorted, unhealthy economy, and of broad wealth disparities. The problem is that future obligations are created without creating the productive means to service them. Worse, when central banks encourage yield-seeking speculation in the financial markets, valuations are driven up so that investors are offered the illusion of "paper wealth," even though long-term stream of cash flows represented by those securities (which embody the actual "value" of a security) hasn't changed at all. As speculative yield-seeking continues, and as valuations increase, the long-term stream of cash flows underlying those securities becomes smaller and smaller per dollar of paper "wealth." Ultimately, the outlook for the future features nothing other than poor long-term returns and defaults.
While it's certainly possible for any individual holder to sell their overvalued holdings, equilibrium requires that someone else, by necessity, has to buy those same securities. It's essential to recognize that yield-seeking speculation doesn't create wealth. It only creates the opportunity for wealth transfer - primarily away from speculators who buy those securities at extreme valuations, and toward the previous holders with the foresight to sell to those "greater fools."
Simply put, the only thing QE really does is to distort the financial side of the economy, enabling and encouraging yield-seeking speculation and massive sectoral imbalances that we observe as wealth disparities and bizarrely distorted securities markets. The proper course of economic policy is to expand productive investment at every level of the economy through the action of Congress (including infrastructure investment, corporate investment tax incentives, workforce development credits, and other measures ideally tied to the creation of new jobs). The Federal Reserve is not a source of prosperity. It is the single most dangerous and unregulated risk factor in the U.S. economy. We should have learned that during the yield-seeking mortgage bubble and the collapse that followed. We have not, so we now face the equivalent prospect again.
Illusory prosperity, cheap money, and the road to financial crisis
"Credit expansion cannot increase the supply of real goods. It merely brings about a rearrangement. It diverts capital investment away from the course prescribed by the state of economic wealth and market conditions. It causes production to pursue paths which it would not follow unless the economy were to acquire an increase in material goods. As a result, the upswing lacks a solid base. It is not a real prosperity. It is illusory prosperity. It did not develop from an increase in economic wealth [i.e. the accumulation of savings made available for productive investment]. Rather, it arose because the credit expansion created the illusion of such an increase. Sooner or later, it must become apparent that this economic situation is built on sand."
Ludwig von Mises, The Causes of Economic Crisis (1931)
Historical note: The stock market would go on to lose two-thirds of its value over the following year, bringing the cumulative market loss from the 1929 peak to -89%.
In the current cycle, the question of "sooner or later" has been answered by sequentially kicking the consequences further and further down the road, as global central banks initiate ever larger interventions at every turn. When will it end? Unfortunately, it's unlikely to end by central bankers suddenly seeing the light, by recognizing the weak correlation between activist monetary policy and the real economy, or by recognizing that the race to the bottom of zero and even negative interest rates only brings financial distortion. Instead, it will end as credit defaults rise, bank bailouts become necessary, covenant lite debt proves to be, indeed, lite on covenants, and financial assets pushed to zero long-term yields prove, indeed, to yield zero returns over the long-term.
We've learned quite well that speculative psychology can outweigh even warning signals that were regularly followed by vertical losses in prior market cycles, and we've adapted our discipline to reflect that lesson. Quantitative easing has certainly deferred the consequences of extreme valuations and persistent speculation, but I believe that investors would be foolish to assume that those consequences will not arrive. It's easy to understand the concept of yield-seeking, and the allure of "front running" a race to the bottom in yields. Still, it's unrealistic to believe that credit defaults will not accelerate on the massive volume of low-grade, "covenant lite" debt that has been issued in this cycle. It's equally unrealistic to believe that every shock to the global economy can be fixed by the act of central banks buying assets and creating more zero-interest paper. If one understands history, one should recognize that financial distortion and malinvestment always ends in tears, and the longer it continues, the worse the outcomes are likely to be.
A lot of future misery could be avoided if the Congress and the general public recognized the risks the Fed has created, and abandoned the ridiculous concept that it is somehow a third rail of "political influence" to place boundaries on the recklessness of the Federal Reserve. These boundaries are essential for the public good, and perhaps even the economic survival of the nation. The American public should never, never, abdicate the right to restrain the behavior and assert checks and balances on an unelected agency of the government. Yet even if this recklessness brings another global financial crisis or depression, my sense is that the Fed will again be called on to "save" the economy with exactly the same poison that has created recurrent bubbles and collapses in the first place. In the financial markets, we've learned our lessons from QE and made our adaptations, and I expect we'll navigate the cycles ahead just fine. What I worry about is the human impact of the collapse of this speculative episode. Aside from the short-term prospect of even greater speculative yield-seeking (which will only make the ultimate consequences worse), I believe that such a collapse is now unavoidable.
The Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises (1881-1973) was virtually alone in anticipating the Great Depression. He never lived to witness the current episode of deranged experimental recklessness that central banks have unleashed on the global economy. He was spared the spectacle of watching the grotesque brainchild of Ben Bernanke's warped misconceptions swelling to a foul monstrosity. But he instantly would have recognized and anticipated the ultimate consequences. He had already seen those consequences accurately played out in episodes across history, the worst being the Depression and the Weimar hyperinflation. In describing the economic consequences of cheap money, he may as well have been writing about today. Read slowly, and take in every sentence:
"If the market rate of interest is reduced by credit expansion, many projects which were previously deemed unprofitable get the appearance of profitability. The entrepreneur who embarks upon their execution must, however, very soon discover that his calculations were based on erroneous assumptions. However, as the banks do not stop expanding credit and providing business with 'easy money,' the entrepreneurs see no cause to worry. Everybody feels happy and is convinced that now finally mankind has overcome the gloomy state of scarcity and reached everlasting prosperity.
"In fact, all this amazing wealth is fragile, a castle built on the sands of illusion. The artificial prosperity cannot last because the lowering of the rate of interest, purely technical as it was and not corresponding to the real state of the market data, has misled entrepreneurial calculations. Deluded by false reckoning, businessmen have expanded their activities beyond the limits drawn by the state of society's wealth. In short, they have squandered scarce capital by malinvestment.
"The sooner one stops, the less grievous are the damages inflicted and the losses suffered. Public opinion is utterly wrong in its appraisal of the cycle. The artificial boom is not prosperity, but the deceptive appearance of good business. Its illusions lead people astray and cause malinvestment and the consumption of unreal apparent gains which amount to virtual consumption of capital. The depression is the necessary process of readjusting the structure of business activities to the real state of the market data, i.e., the supply of capital goods and the valuations of the public. The depression is the first step on the return to normal conditions, the beginning of recovery and the foundation of real prosperity based on the solid production of goods and not on the sands of credit expansion.
"It is vain to object that the public favors the policy of cheap money. The masses are misled by the assertions of pseudo-experts that cheap money can make them prosperous at no expense whatever. They do not realize that investment can be expanded only to the extent that more capital is accumulated by savings. What counts in reality is not fairy tales, but people's conduct. If men are not prepared to save more by cutting down their current consumption, the means for a substantial expansion of investment are lacking. These means cannot be provided by printing banknotes or by loans on the bank books.
"If one does not terminate the expansionist policy in time by a return to balanced budgets, by abstaining from government borrowing, and by letting the market determine the height of interest rates, one chooses the German way of 1923."
Ludwig von Mises, The Trade Cycle and Credit Expansion: The Economic Consequences of Cheap Money
The foregoing comments represent the general investment analysis and economic views of the Advisor, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. Please see periodic remarks on the Fund Notes and Commentary page for discussion relating specifically to the Hussman Funds and the investment positions of the Funds.
The foregoing comments represent the general investment analysis and economic views of the Advisor, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse.
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