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The Exorcist:
An Interview with the Church's Leading Exorcist
Gyles Brandreth of The Sunday Telegraph
On the bumpy flight to Rome I read The Bible all the way. The passenger on my left - a wiry businesswoman from Wisconsin - found this disconcerting. As the turbulence worsened and I moved from Jude to Revelation, she hissed at me, "Do you have to?" "It's only background reading," I murmured. She grimaced. "What for?" I turned to her and whispered: "I'm going to meet the exorcist." "Oh Christ," she gasped, as the plane lurched and hot coffee spilled over us.
Father Gabriele Amorth is indeed the exorcist, the most senior and respected member of his calling. A priest for 50 years, he is the undisputed leader of the city's six exorcists (appointed by the cardinal to whom the Pope delegates the office of Vicar of Rome) and honorary president-for-life of the International Association of Exorcists. He is 75, small, spry, humorous, and wonderfully direct.
"I speak with the Devil every day," he says, grinning like a benevolent gargoyle. "I talk to him in Latin. He answers in Italian. I have been wrestling with him, day in day out, for 14 years."
On cue (God is not worried by clichés) a shaft of October sunlight falls across Father Amorth's pale, round face. We are sitting at a table by the window in a small high-ceilinged meeting room at his Rome headquarters, the offices of the Society of St Paul. Father Amorth has come to exorcism late in life, but with impressive credentials. Born in 1925 in Modena, northern Italy, the son and grandson of lawyers (his brother is a judge), Gabriele Amorth, in his late teens, joined the Italian resistance.
Immediately after the war, he became a member of the fledgling Christian Democratic Party. Giulo Andreotti was president of the Young Christian Democrats, Amorth was his deputy. Andreotti went into politics and was seven times prime minister. Amorth, having studied law at university, went into the Church.
"From the age of 15," be says, "I knew it was my true vocation. My speciality was the Madonna. For many years I edited the magazine Madre di Deo (Mother of God). When I hear people say, 'You Catholics honour Mary too much,' I reply, 'We are never able to honour her enough."
"I knew nothing of exorcism - I had given it no thought - until June 6, 1986 when Cardinal Poletti, the then Vicar of Rome, asked to see me. There was a famous exorcist in Rome then, the only one, Father Candido, but he was not well, and Cardinal Poletti told me I was to be his assistant. I learnt everything from Father Candido. He was my great master. Quickly I realised how much work there was to be done and how few exorcists there were to do it. From that day, I dropped everything and dedicated myself entirely to exorcism."
Father Amorth smiles continually as he tells his story. His enthusiasm for his subject is infectious and engaging. "Jesus performed exorcisms. He cast out demons. He freed souls from demonic possession and from Him the Church has received the power and office of exorcism. A simple exorcism is performed at every baptism, but major exorcism can be performed only by a priest licensed by the bishop. I have performed over 50,000 exorcisms. Sometimes it takes a few minutes, sometimes many hours. It is hard work multo duro."
How does he recognise someone possessed by evil spirits? "It is not easy. There are many grades of possession. The Devil does not like to be seen, so there are people who are possessed who manage to conceal it. There are other cases where the person possessed is in acute physical pain, such agony that they cannot move."
"It is essential not to confuse demonic possession with ordinary illness. The symptoms of possession often include violent headaches and stomach cramps, but you must always go to the doctor before you go to the exorcist. I have people come to me who are not possessed at all. They are suffering from epilepsy or schizophrenia or other mental problems. Of the thousands of patients I have seen, only a hundred or so have been truly possessed."
"How can you tell?"
"By their aversion to the sacrament and all things sacred. If blessed they become furious. If confronted with the crucifix, they are subdued." "But couldn't an hysteric imitate the symptoms?"
"We can sort out the phoney ones. We look into their eyes. As part of the exorcism, at specific times during the prayers, holding two fingers on the patient's eyes we raise the eyelids. Almost always, in cases of evil presence, the eyes look completely white. Even with the help of both hands, we can barely discern whether the pupils are towards the top or the bottom of the eye. If the pupils are looking up, the demons in possession are scorpions. If looking down, they are serpents."
As I report this now, it sounds absurd. As Father Amorth told it to me, it felt entirely credible.
I had gone to Rome expecting — hoping, even — for a chilling encounter, but instead of a sinister bug-eyed obsessive lurking in the shadows of a Hammer Horror film set, here I was sitting in an airy room facing a kindly old man with an uncanny knack for making the truly bizarre seem wholly rational. He has God on his side and customers at his door. The demand for exorcism is growing as never before. Fifteen years ago there were 20 church-appointed exorcists in Italy. Now there are 300.
I ask Father Amorth to describe the ritual of exorcism.
"Ideally, the exorcist needs another priest to help him and a group nearby who will assist through prayer. The ritual does not specify the stance of the exorcist. Some stand, some sit. The ritual says only that, beginning with the words Ecce crucem Domini ('Behold the Cross of the Lord') the priest should touch the neck of the possessed one with the hem of his stole and hold his hand on his head. The demons will want to hide. Our task is to expose them, and then expel them. There are many ways to goad them into showing themselves. Although the ritual does not mention this, experience has taught us that using oil and holy water and salt can be very effective."
"Demons are wary of talking and must be forced to speak. When demons are voluntarily chatty it's a trick to distract the exorcist. We must never ask useless questions out of curiosity. We but must interrogate with care. We always begin by asking for the demon's name."
"And does he answer?" I ask. Father Amorth nods. "Yes, through the patient, but in a strange, unnatural voice. If it is the Devil himself, he says 'I am Satan, or Lucifer, or Beelzebub. We ask if he is alone or if there are others with him. Usually there are two or five, 20 or 30. We must quantify the number. We ask when and how they entered that particular body. We find out whether their presence is due to a spell and the specifics of that spell."
"During the exorcism the evil may emerge in slow stages or with sudden explosions. He does not want show himself. He will be angry and he is strong. During one exorcism I saw a child of 11 held down by four strong men. The child threw the men aside with ease. I was there when a boy of 10 lifted a huge, heavy table."
"Afterwards I felt the muscles in the boy's arms. He could not have done it on his own. He had the strength of the Devil inside him."
"No two cases are the same. Some patients have to be tied down on a bed. They spit. They vomit. At first the demon will try to demoralise the exorcist, then he will try to terrify him, saying, 'Tonight I'm going to put a serpent between your sheets. Tomorrow I'm going to eat your heart'."
I lean towards Father Amorth. "And are you sometimes frightened?" I ask. He looks incredulous. "Never. I have faith. I laugh at the demon and say to him, 'I've got the Madonna on my side. I am called Gabriel. Go fight the Archangel Gabriel if you will.' That usually shuts them up."
Now he leans towards me and taps my hand confidentially. "The secret is to find your demon's weak spot. Some demons cannot bear to have the Sign of the Cross traced with a stole on an aching part of the body; some cannot stand a puff of breath on the face; others resist with all their strength against blessing with holy water."
"Relief for the patient is always possible, but to completely rid a person of his demons can take many exorcisms over many years. For a demon to leave a body and go back to hell means to die forever and to lose any ability to molest people in the future. He expresses his desperation saying: 'I am dying, I am dying. You are killing me; you have won. All priests are murderers'."
How do people come to be possessed by demons in the first place? "I believe God sometimes singles out certain souls for a special test of spiritual endurance, but more often people lay themselves open to possession by dabbling with black magic. Some are entrapped by a satanic cult. Others are the victims of a curse."
I interrupt. "You mean like Yasser Arafat saying to Ehud Barak, 'Go to Hell' and meaning it?"
"No." Father Amorth gives me a withering look. "That is merely a sudden imprecation. It is very difficult to perform a curse. You need to be a priest of Satan to do it properly. Of course, just as you can hire a killer if you need one, you can hire a male witch to utter a curse on your behalf. Most witches are frauds, but I am afraid some authentic ones do exist."
Father Amorth shakes his head and sighs at the wickedness of the world. At the outset be has told me he is confident he will have an answer to all my questions, but he has a difficulty with the next one. "Why do many more women seem to become possessed than men?"
"Ah, that we do not know. They may be more vulnerable because, as a rule, more women than men are interested in the occult. Or it may be the Devil's way of getting at men, just as he got to Adam through Eve. What we do know is that the problem is getting worse. The Devil is gaining ground. We are living in an age when faith is diminishing. If you abandon God, the Devil will take his place."
"All faiths, all cultures, have exorcists, but only Christianity has the true force to exorcise through Christ's example and authority. We need many more exorcists, but the bishops won't appoint them. In many countries - Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Spain there are no Catholic exorcists. It is a scandal. In England there are more Anglican exorcists than Catholic ones."
Although the post of exorcist is an official diocesan appointment (there are about 300 attached to the various bishops throughout Italy) and Father Amorth is undisputably the best known in his field, there is some tension between Amorth and the modernising tendencies in the Church hierarchy.
Devil-hunting is not fashionable in senior church circles. The Catholic establishment is happier talking about "the spirit of evil" than evil spirits. The Vatican recently issued a new rite of exorcism which has not met with Father Amorth's approval. "They say we cannot perform an exorcism unless we know for certain that the Evil One is present. That is ridiculous. It is only through exorcism that the demons reveal themselves. An unnecessary exorcism never hurt anybody."
What does the Pope make of all this? "The Holy Father knows that the Devil is still alive and active in the world. He has performed exorcism. In 1982, he performed a solemn exorcism on a girl from Spoletto. She screamed and rolled on the floor. Those who saw it were very frightened. The Pope brought her temporary freedom.
"The other day, on September 6, at his weekly audience at St Peter's, a young woman from a village near Monza started to shriek as the Pope was about to bless her. She shouted obscenities at him in a strange voice. The Pope blessed her and brought her relief, but the Devil is still in her. She is exorcised each week in Milan and she is now coming to me once a month. It may take a long time to help her, but we must try. The work of the exorcists is to relieve suffering, to free souls from torment, to bring us closer to God."
Father Amorth has laughed and smiled a good deal during our three-hour discussion. He has pulled sundry rude faces to indicate his contempt for the pusillanimous bishops who have a monopoly on exorcism and refuse to license more practitioners. In his mouth it does not seem like mumbo-jumbo or hocus-pocus. He produces detailed case histories. He quotes scriptural chapter and verse to justify his actions. And he has a large following. His book, An Exorcist Tells his Story, has been reprinted in Italy 17 times.
Given his shining faith and scholarly approach, I hardly dare ask him whether he has seen the notorious 1973 horror film, The Exorcist. It turns out to be his favourite film. "Of course, the special effects are exaggerated. but it is a good film, and substantially exact, based on a respectable novel which mirrored a true story."
The film is held to be so disturbing it has never been shown [until recently] on British terrestrial television and until last year could not even be rented from video shops. None the less, Father Amorth recommends it. "People need to know what we do."
And what about Hallowe'en? The American tradition has made no inroads in Italy. "Here it is on Christmas Eve that the Satanists have their orgies. Nothing happens on October 31. But if English and American children like to dress up as witches and devils on one night of the year that is not a problem. If it is just a game, there is no harm in that.'"
It is time to go to the chapel where our photographer is waiting. Father Atnorth, used to the ways of the press, raises an eyebrow at us indulgently as he realises the photograph is designed to heighten the drama of his calling. Pictures taken, he potters off to find me of one ot his books.
"What do make of him?'' asks the photographer. "Is he mad?"
"I don't think so," I say. The award-winning Daily and Sunday Telegraph Rome correspondent, who has acted as interpreter for the interview, and is both a lapsed Catholic and a hardened hack, is more empathic: "There's not a trace of the charlatan about him. He is quite sane and utterly convincing."
Surprised at myself I add: "He seems to me to be a power for good in the world." With a smirk, the photographer loads his gear into the back of the taxi. "So he's Peter Cushing then, not Christopher Lee," he says.
Father Amorth reappears with his book and smiles. "Remember, when we jeer at the Devil and tell ourselves that he does not exist, that is when he is happiest."
This interview first appeared in the 29th October 2000 issue of The Sunday Telegraph
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Iran's influence in Pakistan more limited than ever
Home/Pakistan/Iran's influence in Pakistan more limited than ever
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (R) meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan in the Iranian capital Tehran, April 22, 2019. (AP)
By Javeed Hafeez
Iran and Pakistan are neighbors and both have been designated Islamic republics. But notwithstanding its nomenclature, Pakistan was never meant to be a theocratic state by its founding fathers. On the contrary, their view of Islam was broad and inclusive, and even though the constitution of Pakistan designates Islam as its official religion, it does not show preference for any particular sect.
In the Iranian case, the position is different and after 1979, the clergy assumed power there. After this, Iranian foreign policy vowed to "export" its revolution to the region. But despite having the second largest shiite population after Iran, given its large demographic size, multi-ethnic and multi-sect population, Pakistan was a very unlikely candidate for a revolution modelled on Iran's example.
Still, there is no denying the fact that Iran has always had some ingress in Pakistan at both government and societal levels.
The pre-1979 societal influence of Iran in Pakistan had a strong cultural accent based on the Persian language and it promotion, in addition to an already established tradition of Persian poetry and literature among the Muslims of the sub-continent. Pakistanis of various religious callings then had a soft spot for Iran.
But all this changed after 1979 when sectarian preferences began dominating the Iranian agenda in Pakistan. The Iranian lobby became narrower but more focused and at times dangerously developed a visibly antagonistic attitude toward the government of Pakistan and Pakistani's majority Sunni sect.
When General Zia ul Haq imposed compulsory Zakat (Islamic charity) deduction law, the minority (Shiite) sect refused to abide by it. Similarly, during the rule of General Musharraf, a religious party wanted to table the sharia bill in Parliament. The clerical government in Tehran conveyed its reservations to the leadership in Islamabad and the matter ended there.
At the government level, the Iranian clout in Pakistan is clearly related to regional geo-politics. With its continuing India-specific tensions and issues with Afghanistan, Pakistan can ill afford to have a third hostile neighbor. Cleverly, Iran plays the Indian card when dealing with Islamabad as Pakistan does not want to see Tehran getting closer to New Delhi.
The Iranian government and its post revolution clergy have at times betrayed a somewhat condescending attitude toward Pakistan. In the days of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, when there was some political unrest in Pakistan's southwestern Balochistan, the Shah said publicly that in case the province secedes from Pakistan, Iran would intervene (to annex neighboring districts), and it is an open secret that the Iranian clergy talks to its counterparts in Pakistan from a rather high pedestal.
There are also rumors that Iranian cultural centers have been involved in the recruitment of Pakistani youth to fight in Syria. All said and done, the fact is that post 1979, the Iranian lobby in Pakistan has accentuated religious fault lines here between Shiites and Sunnis.
The Pakistani state's outlook on Islam is inclusive and not narrow. It wants, as a matter of policy, to promote national cohesion and unity. Therefore, Iran's efforts to give a new combative identity to one sect of the Pakistani population (Shiites make up 20% of Pakistan's Muslims) are naturally viewed with suspicion. However, Pakistani authorities are cautious when dealing with Iran, with sectarianism and with its myriad problems along the Pakistan-Iran border.
But while the Iranian lobby has been successful in influencing certain legislative proposals in the past, it is not in a position to influence Pakistan's vital ties with the Arab Gulf states now.
Pakistan has historic bonds with these countries now further cemented by commercial links and people to people contacts. The number of Pakistanis working in these countries and those visiting these countries for commercial purposes or tourism have gained great momentum in recent years.
Specifically, Pakistan's spiritual bonds with Saudi Arabia and a shared perception about regional peace and security with all six Gulf Cooperation Council countries provide a formidable base for their friendly ties.
Needless to say, Iran has not been able to export its revolution to any country in the region. Pakistan, with its demographic composition and democratic traditions inherited from the British rule, was never a suitable place for rule by the clergy of any denomination.
By Track Persia|2019-06-27T21:57:47+00:00June 28th, 2019|Pakistan|
Afghan, Iranian ministers arrive in Pakistan for talks on refugees
Pakistan releases detained Iranian sailors
Iranian FM leaves Pakistan with little more than promise of moral support
Iran looks to Pakistan for mediation
FM Zarif due in Pakistan today as US pressure mounts on Tehran

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Im Maschinenbau bezeichnet ein Sequenzbruch bei parallel ablaufenden Sequenzen das Verschieben des Ablaufes mindestens einer der Sequenzen (z. B. durch Auslassen eines Elements dieser Sequenz). Hierzu sind mindestens zwei Sequenzen notwendig.

Beispiel

Bei der Fahrzeugmontage wird in den Motorraum der Motor verbaut. Die normale Folge ohne Sequenzbruch könnte sein, dass ein 1,9 TDI in ein dafür vorgesehenes Fahrzeug verbaut wird, danach folgt ein GTI Motor in das entsprechende nächste Fahrzeug.

Tritt nun ein Sequenzbruch auf, könnte der 1,9 TDI-Motor versehentlich im GTI-Fahrzeug positioniert werden.

Fahrzeugbau

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Podbean, which describes itself as a podcast social subscribing site, has introduced an embeddable multimedia podcast player that can be used to put your podcast on Facebook, MySpace and blogs.
The free player supports both videos and audios. It's designed so that you can embed the player once, and Podbean updates the player content whenever you create, modify or delete podcast episodes.


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DOE Finds Record Production and Job Growth in U.S. Wind Power Sector
New DOE Wind Energy Market Reports Highlight Advances in Domestic Development and Deployment, Now Generating Enough Energy to Power 40 Million Homes
WASHINGTON, D.C. — The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today released three reports showing that wind power remains one of America's fastest growing energy sources and a generator of high-quality jobs. Wind power accounted for 32% of U.S. energy capacity growth in 2021, employs 120,000 Americans, and now provides enough energy to power 40 million American homes. The 2021 wind market reports show that the domestic expansion of wind power is proving to be an essential source of clean, cheap energy generation that supports President Biden's goals of reaching 100% clean electricity by 2035 and a net zero economy by 2050.
"These reports show U.S. wind energy deployment and generating capacity are booming—delivering cheap, reliable, and clean energy to power even more American homes and businesses," said U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm. "The rapid technological and industrial advances in the domestic wind sector are creating new jobs for the clean energy workforce and assuring wind power's critical role in achieving President Biden's climate and decarbonization goals."
Technology advancement, state-level policies, and the federal production tax credit (PTC) have fueled the wind sector's growth in recent years, but the PTC for wind expired at the end of 2021, creating market uncertainty. The passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which invests billions of dollars in wind energy by extending the PTC for at least 10 years and encouraging investment in American clean energy manufacturing, gives long-term certainty to the wind industry and is likely to fuel the sector's rapid growth in the years to come.
The Inflation Reduction Act includes long-term extensions of critical tax incentives supporting the deployment of all three wind applications – land-based, offshore and distributed – and new programs to support the siting and construction of high-voltage transmission lines, which will be important for both land-based and offshore wind. Also included are new production-based tax credits for domestic manufacturing and supply of wind components and equipment, which will provide strong incentives to onshore key supply chains of wind turbines and related components.
The 2022 edition of the Land-Based Wind Market Report, prepared by DOE's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, detailed 13,413 MW of new utility-scale land-based wind generation capacity added in 2021 -- the equivalent of powering more than 4 million American homes and representing $20 billion investment in new wind power investment.Key findings from the report include:
Wind energy provided more than 9% of total electricity nationwide, more than 50% in Iowa and South Dakota and 30% in Kansas, Oklahoma, and North Dakota.
Twenty-two states installed new utility-scale land-based wind turbines in 2021. Texas installed the most capacity, with 3,343 MW. Other leading states include Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Kansas, which all added more than 1,000 MW of capacity in 2021.
Wind turbines continue to grow in size and power, leading to more cheap clean energy production. The average capacity of newly installed wind turbines grew 9% from 2020 to 2021, to 3 MW.
For wind projects built in 2021, the researchers estimated public health benefits, climate benefits, and value to the grid are worth more than triple the cost of generating electricity from wind energy.
The 2022 edition of the Offshore Wind Market Report, prepared by DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory, found that the capacity of U.S. offshore wind energy projects being developed and currently operating increased 14% from the previous year to 40,083 MW. This includes two operating projects totaling 42 MW and 38 projects under development totaling 35,509 MW, enough to potentially power about 13 million American homes. The report also found:
The Biden-Harris administration significantly expanded offshore wind development in new areas of the country, including six new lease areas auctioned in the New York Bight and two new lease areas auctioned in Long Bay, off the coast of the Carolinas. There are also plans to lease new areas in California, the Gulf of Mexico, the Central Atlantic, Oregon, and the Gulf of Maine.
As of May 2022, 24 offshore wind projects have signed contracts to sell their power, totaling 17,579 MW.
New York had the highest energy capacity in the U.S. offshore wind energy pipeline, with 11,162 MW, followed by Massachusetts (8,553 MW), New Jersey (4,758 MW), and California (4,532 MW).
Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) is planning areas for future leasing that could potentially provide another 4,532 MW of power.
The global capacity for proposed floating offshore wind energy—turbines mounted to a floating foundation or substructure—more than doubled in 2021 from 26,529 MW to 60,746 MW. Deployment of this technology is likely to continue gaining momentum as the industry works to lower costs through innovation and global market growth.
The 2022 edition of the Distributed Wind Market Report, prepared by DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, notes that 1,751 distributed wind turbines were added across 15 states. The turbines, which serve on-site energy demand or support operation of local electricity distribution networks, total 11.7MW of new capacity and represent $41 million in new investment in 2021.
Cumulative U.S. distributed wind capacity stands at 1,075 MW from the more than 89,000 wind turbines across all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Guam.
Rhode Island, Kansas, and Minnesota led the United States in distributed wind capacity additions in 2021, with each state completing a large-scale distributed wind project.
For small wind capacity additions, defined as turbines up to 100 kilowatts in size, Minnesota led the nation in 2021. This is largely attributed to a push to sell small wind capacity to agricultural markets, and a decline of small wind installations in New York following the discontinuation of its state incentive program.
The three market reports, including supporting blogs, videos, and infographics, are available at energy.gov/windreport.
Learn more about the Wind Energy Technologies Office in DOE's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
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Q: Online resources for philosophy of causation for causal inference Can you recommend any books, articles, essays, online tutorials/courses, etc that would be interesting and useful for an epidemiologist/biostatistician to learn about the philosophy of causation/causal inference?
I know quite a bit about actually doing causal inference from an epi and biostats framework, but I would like to learn something about the philosophy which underlies and motivates this work. For example, it's my understanding that Hume first talked about ideas that could be interpreted as counterfactuals.
I have basically no training or experience with philosophy, so I need something relatively introductory to start of with, but I would also be interested in recommendations for more complex but important/foundational texts/authors (but please indicate that they are not introductory).
I hope this isn't too off-topic for cross-validated, but I'm hoping that some of you will have been in the same boat as me before and able to share your favorite resources.

A: Without wanting to delve into specific papers, I think an excellent resource for something like that would be the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. The lemmas on  Probabilistic Causation and Causation and Manipulability are peer reviewed, meticulous annotated and give great pointers on where to focus your research next.
Just to cite and two papers: Two extremely enjoyable articles on the matter are The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences by Wigner (1960) and (lighter and definitely more recent) The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Data by Halevy, Norvig, and Pereira (2009).

A: @user11852 is putting you on the right track.  Let me add Pearl's lecture on The Art and Science of Cause and Effect as a light and fun introduction to the ideas / history and philosophy of the topic.

A: With Philosophy, a good starting point is always the work of Bertrand Russell. There's no doubt that you'd find sections in Russell's History of Western Philosophy that cover the philosophy of causation/causal inference, but given its size and broad scope, it would be difficult for me to pin down for you exactly where to look in this book. Taking the longer term view, though, this is the book to start with if you want to deepen your knowledge of philosophy - its evolution - and philosophers themselves.
A second book by Bertrand Russell that's worth consulting is Human Knowledge. Part V of this book covers Probability while Part VI is about the Postulates of Scientific Inference. Both of these topics are discussed from the philosopher's standpoint. To give you a taste of the book, I've added two extracts from the Introduction below.
In the Introduction to the book, Bertrand tells us a little bit about Part V Probability:

Since it is admitted that scientific inferences, as  rule, only confer
  probability on the conclusions, Part V proceeds to the examination of
  Probability. This term is capable of various interpretations , and has
  been differently defined by different authors. These interpretations
  and definitions are examined, and so are the attempts to connect
  induction with probability. In this matter the conclusion reached is,
  in the main, that advocated by Keynes: that inductions do not make
  their conclusions probable unless certain conditions are fulfilled, and that
  experience alone can never prove that these conditions are fulfilled.

And on Part VI Postulates of Scientific Inference, Bertrand says (again, from the Introduction):

Part VI, on the postulates of scientific inference, endeavours to
  discover what are the minimum assumptions, anterior to experience,
  that are required to justify us in inferring laws from a collection of
  data; and further, to inquire in what sense, if any, we can be said to
  know that these assumptions are valid. The main logical function that
  the assumptions have to fulfill is that of conferring a high
  probability on the conclusions and inductions that satisfy certain
  conditions. For this purpose, since only probability is in question,
  we do not need to assume that such-and-such a connection of events
  occurs always, but only that it occurs frequently. For example, one of the
  assumptions that appear necessary is that of separable causal chains,
  such as are exhibited by light-rays or sound-waves. This assumption
  can be stated as follows: when an event having a complex space-time
  structure occurs, it frequently happens that it is one of a train of
  events having the same or a very similar structure. (A more exact
  statement will be found in Chapter 6 of this Part.) This is part of a
  wider assumption of regularity, or natural law, which, however,
  requires to be stated in more specific forms than is usual, for in its
  usual form it turns out to be a tautology.
That scientific inference requires, for its validity, principles which
  experience cannot render even probable, is, I believe, an inescapable
  conclusion from the logic of probability. For empiricism, it is an
  awkward conclusion.
But I think it can be rendered somewhat more palatable by the analysis of the
  concept of "knowledge" undertaken in Part II. "Knowledge", in my
  opinion, is a much less precise concept than is generally thought, and
  has its roots more deeply embedded in unverbalized animal behaviour
  than most philosophers have been willing to admit. The logically basic
  assumptions to which our analysis leads us are psychologically the end
  of a long series of refinements which start from habits of expectation
  in animals, such as that what has a certain kind of smell will be good
  to eat. To ask, therefore, whether we "know" the postulates of
  scientific inference, is not so definite a question as it seems. The
  answer must be: in one sense, yes, in another sense, no; but in the
  sense in which "no" is the right answer we know nothing whatever, and
  "knowledge" in this sense is a delusive vision. The perplexities of
  philosophers are due, in a large measure, to their unwillingness to
  awaken from this blissful dream.

If you decide to take things further (down the academic line), I'd also suggest searching "causal inference" in the Oxford Journal Mind. There is a search tool on the Journal's website.

A: From the title it does not sound like it but the book "Mostly Harmless Econometrics" by Angrist and Pischke gives a thorough explanation of causal effects estimation, the underlying rationale and a wide discussion of techniques useful for applied worked. They explain all techniques and their basic ideas with real-life examples, though the majority is related to economics if you don't mind that.
If you would like to have a more technical treatment of the idea of counterfactuals, a major paper in this respect is by Angrist, Imbens and Rubin (1996) in the Journal of the American Statistical Association. In there they establish a causal effects framework built on counterfactuals which uses instrumental variables to identify local average treatment effects.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


TAMPA, Fla. (June 10, 2010) – When a lifeguard near Stuart Beach raced to rescue a screaming kite-boarder in February, he found the man – surrounded by circling sharks – had been mortally wounded. The shark-bite victim died as the lifeguard brought him to shore.
Shark attacks have been studied for years by researchers who hope to unlock mysteries around how the predatory animals use their senses. The answers may provide scientists with information that can help people – though in an unexpected way when it comes to the sense of smell.
Current Biology features an article by Jayne Gardiner, a Ph. D. candidate at the University of South Florida's Department of Integrative Biology, and Jelle Atema from the Boston University Marine Program, on "The function of bilateral odor arrival time differences in olfactory orientation of sharks."
Their research aims to "gain a better understanding of shark feeding behavior and of the concept of multisensory integration in general," Gardiner said. Once understood, humans can benefit from what is learned.
But first, figuring out how sharks use their noses requires special equipment and cooperative sharks. Gardiner fitted a headstage apparatus to a small, manageable species of shark known as the smooth dogfish. The equipment delivered controlled pulses of odor into the sharks' left and right nostrils.
The way sharks track odor plumes and locate food has a correlation to how they respond to the timing of odor arrival.
So far, this research does not have direct implications for interactions between sharks and humans, but there may be underwater navigation applications.
"The steering response of sharks has shown us a new, general principle that can be tested and perhaps implemented," Gardiner said. "Until our study, it was believed that aquatic animals locate odor sources by performing comparisons of odor concentrations at the two sensors (nostrils or antennae) and previous robots (for example, the robo-lobster) were programmed to track odors in this manner – and they failed.
Gardiner has spent literally thousands of hours observing sharks and working on various aspects of their behavior for a little over six years. She is a former student of Boston University's Atema, a biologist and an expert on how marine animals sense their environment. Their work has been featured on the Discovery Channel twice so far.
While the study in Current Biology looked only at sharks' olfactory system, Gardiner also works on vision, the lateral line system, and the electrosense. Her research subjects include smooth dogfish, spiny dogfish, nurse sharks, bonnet head sharks, black tip sharks, and whale sharks.
Originally from New Brunswick, Canada, Gardiner now lives in Sarasota, Fla. not too far away from the flume channel at the Mote Marine Laboratory where she conducts much of her research. A fascination with sharks was not what brought her to research them.
In college Gardiner took a detour to study microbiology and immunology when people discouraged her from pursuing a career as a marine biologist. But the call of the sea was too strong.
"After a few years with the Canadian federal government, I abandoned a promising career to pursue my passion. After more than a year of discussions, Jelle (Atema) landed a grant from DARPA to work on shark sensory behavior and offered me a research assistantship. I thought, "well, a shark's a fish," and the rest is history.
After earning a master's degree from BU, Gardiner came to USF to work on her doctorate and expand the scope and scale of her research. Here she is co-advised by Philip Motta, an expert in feeding mechanics and Bob Hueter director of the Mote Marine Laboratory Center for Shark Research. They secured a collaborative NSF grant, with Atema and neurobiologist Allen Mensinger (University of Minnesota, Duluth) serving as co-PIs, to conduct a large-scale study on multisensory integration in four species of sharks.
Gardiner is concerned now about sharks survival.
She points out that understanding sharks' multisensory integration ultimately has implications for human health.
Barbara Melendez covers humanities and the arts. She can be reached at 813-974-4563.


While 'Comedy' can be anyone's cup of coffee, it's not the same with 'Political Satire', which actually demands for a substantial content and perfect packaging so that it reaches the large scale audiences. RJ Balaji's LKG had its toast of success tasted with the first single track "Ethanai Kaalam Dhaan', which became an overnight success garnering unbelievable reception.
This wasn't just limited to YouTube views; Social media Shares and Re-Tweets, but sprang up as a winner in FM Stations as well. Well, the film's theatrical trailer that was launched this evening has been throwing up a non-stop treat for its satire elements. What's more intriguing is the fact that trailer has scaled One Million views within few hours from the time of release.
LKG is produced by Isari K Ganesh for Vels Film International with K.R. Prabhu making his directorial debut with this movie. While RJ Balaji and Priya Anand are playing the lead roles, others in the star-cast including Ram Kumar, veteran political personality Nanjil Sampath, JK Rithesh, Mayilsamy, Santa Bharathi and few more prominent actors. Leon James has composed music for this film with Vidhu Ayyanna cranking the camera while Anthony has edited the film.
How is Kaala Movie Songs?


text:
Projects, Regional Surveys
Designer: Ali Tayar
R & Company is pleased to announce Ali Tayar: Systems & One-Offs, which opens at the gallery on April 25. The exhibition is the first comprehensive survey of the celebrated architect/designer since his death in 2016, and provides an overview of his multifaceted career. It is co-curated by Dung Ngo, a design editor and one of Tayar's close friends. Tayar's estate is earmarking proceeds from the exhibition to create a scholarship in his name towards Parsons School of Design in New York.
Ali Tayar received a traditional, engineering-focused, European architectural education. Drawing inspiration from mass production and modular systems, he developed a signature style, and an opus of original works that are both rational and poetic. Over the span of his career, Tayar worked in all scales, from small everyday objects to furniture prototypes, to architectural interiors and full-scale buildings. Tayar conceptualized his practice with a dual philosophical system, marrying a strong interest in modular design with his passion for classic modernism. "Ali called his studio Parallel Design," Dung Ngo recalls, "as a recognition that his parallel practices in architecture, interiors, furniture, and product design all came out of the same design philosophy. These correlated thought processes resulted in a cohesive body of works that combined both rigorous aesthetics and evolving, flexible design concepts."
Systems & One-Offs showcases Ali Tayar's most compelling designs, objects and furniture. On view is one of Tayar's earlier and most iconic pieces, "NEA Table, Version 1". This transformed "ready-made" piece, created out of a molded recomposed wood pallet, cast aluminum, and glass exemplifies Tayar's interest in and experimentation with found and new materials. This table, along with "Ellen's Brackets", a commissioned set of bookshelves, was Tayar's design debut, and both were included in the 1995 MoMA exhibition Mutant Materials in Contemporary Design.
Also on display is an example of the innovative workstation "ICON", from his own office at Parallel Design, which is comprised of modular shelving units that can be arranged into configurations of various heights and widths. This piece was exhibited in the 2001 MoMA survey Workspheres and is presented in the exhibition alongside a stackable shelving system, in wood and aluminum from 1992, that can be similarly configured into various formats. Both of these multifunctional pieces are clear examples of Tayar's aspiration to create flexible modular systems based on spatial context.
The exhibition also unveils a selection of rare ephemera including prototypes, architectural drawings and photographs that provide insight into Ali Tayar's conceptual process, which was at the center of his practice. On view is a drawing for one of Tayar's most memorable exteriors: the metal entrance he designed for Mark McDonald's Gansevoort Gallery in New York's Meatpacking district (1995 – 2002). The design was described by McDonald as "a brutal, massive, yet delicate design inspired by the gravity-based movement of carcasses of beef on the tracks, hooks, and pulleys throughout the meat-packing area." The material from this particular work inspired Tayar to realize one of his most celebrated pieces, "Plaza Screen", a unit system made of extruded aluminum panels that the user can assemble in any length and shape they desire.
The selection of works in Systems & One-Offs serves as a memoir, portraying Tayar's creative process, his interest in unusual techniques and his innovative approach to materials. In 2001 Tayar stated, "Solutions can often be found by either utilizing existing process in new ways, as in the case of the extruded aluminum shelving bracket, or by investigating materials, such as molded particle board." The exhibition draws together the diverse set of solutions Tayar achieved through all aspects of his design process. The collection of works on view demonstrates Ali Tayar's fundamental objective of combining formal modernism and modular design into his own systematic ideology.
Image: Joe Kramm, courtesy R & Company
Text: R & COMPANY website (accessed 24 April 2017)
Arbaa Mesti Market (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Arbaa Mesti Argan Oil Cooperative (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Boutrouch Hostel (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Casablanca Colonial District (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Guelmim City (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Khenfouf Sustainable Farm (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Guelmim Daily Market (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Legzira Village (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Mirleft Agadir (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Mirleft City (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Sbouya Cactus Oil Coop (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Sidi Ifni City (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Abyanah Village (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Aqazadah House (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Alamut Castle (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Ali Qapu (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Yazd Atash Bihram (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Azadi Tower (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Barin Ski Resort (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Burujirdi House (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Chihil Sutun (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Chitgar Park (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Cypress of Abarkuh (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Fin Garden (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Fire and Water Park (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Iran Bastan Museum (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Isfahan Bazaar (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Jamshidiyah Park (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Kashan Bazaar (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Milad Housing Complex (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Mukhtari Garden (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Muqaddam Museum (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Na'in Cityscape (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Na'in Bazaar (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Na'in Tourist Hotel (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Nushabad Underground City (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Shah Mosque (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Tabataba'i House (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
Tehran Apartment Buildings (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces Collection)
On Site Sketches (Handicraft Cooperatives & Workspaces)
An Alternative Model for Women Cooperatives in the MENA Region: The Case of Arbaa Mesti, Morocco
Design Process Documentation for Women Multi-Purpose Handicraft Cooperative Centre in Arbaa Mesti, Morocco
Rural Women Cooperatives and Workspaces in the MENA Region: Tourism, Experience Economy, and Women's Empowerment
An Alternative Model for Rural Women Cooperatives in the MENA Region: The Case of Arbaa Mesti, Morocco


There are people becoming rich all over the world, many stories have been narrated and songs been sung in praises. Nothing however beats those who are self-made; such is the story of infamous Martha Stewart, the first self-made female billionaire.
In a world where money is everything everyone's after and the more they make the more they want, how did Martha Stewart become an inspiration for women entrepreneurs all over the globe? For starters, Stewart's life was as normal as it could get, she made money babysitting, but she definitely had dreams and most importantly the talent and aptitude. Stewart is known for her food and an array of easy, fun recipes, but she never formally was educated from any culinary school, her mother taught her how to sew and cook.
The American Business magnate saw more than her fair share of downfalls in her businesses. She had always had personality issues, which were made evident to the common public. In a country like the US, where culture seems to be dying, and everyone is blindly following the weirdest of ways in order to feel modern, Martha Stewart brought the homey touchy feeling back into everyone's household. Even if you're not the cooking, sewing sort, you would enjoy watching her TV shows and just feeling the warmth of a woman who knows home making and everything that is synonymous with culture and security.
In brief her first business venture was that of catering, she through one of her catering jobs landed a book deal with the Crown Publishing Group. When her first book became a success she got the opportunities to release more, focusing on an array of cooking themes. And while she was on the stride of book releasing, she was featured in various newspapers and appeared on big TV shows. Martha got all the publicity she needed to be known name in the industry. Even though the business side of her life was shining bright, her marriage fell apart. Moving on from books, Martha became the editor in chief of the Martha Stewart Living Magazine; which was a big rave and brought Stewart even more publicity; she was declared as "the definitive American woman of our time" by the New York Times in 1995.
Stewart saw great potential in herself, and her brand. She soon started a new company Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia, but while she was enjoying the money it was making, she tripped a little and was subjected to court trials and finally prison. However Martha got back and gained control of her company after being released from prison in 2005. And in 2012 she became the chairman of her company again.
Women like Stewart tend to offer the business world a little more than the money making; they are a source of inspiration. No matter the trials one goes through, having faith in oneself will always get you back to where you want to be i.e. The top. Martha exudes that; and her accomplishments speak volumes in that regard.