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>Prospects for Global Defence Export Industry in I...
>FERTILIZER SECTOR: Sowing the seeds of Change (DO...
>GRASIM INDUSTRIES:Samruddhi lists today; to be me...
>HCC: Gearing up for a full fledged 'Dasve' launch...
>BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: BoP remains stable despite l...
>Prospects for Global Defence Export Industry in Indian Defence Market (DELOITTE)
Over the past decade, the Indian Ministry of Defence has put into motion plans for an unprecedented modernisation program of its defence capabilities.
Following the Kargil conflict in 1999, India was confronted with the recognition that much of its
Soviet-era equipment was outdated and obsolescent compared with its regional rivals. India faces the theoretical prospect of a war on two fronts, one with a major power rival (China) and the other with a powerfully-armed middle power that poses potential threats to its homeland security (Pakistan). Both China and Pakistan have significantly expanded their military capabilities in the past decade.
In this context, India has embarked on a major defence acquisition program, aimed at increasing the size, capability and self-reliance of its Defence Armed Forces.
The scale of the planned investments reflects both its need to make up for lost time as well as its expanding economic power. India has seen its economic capacity to fund its capability modernisation expand almost exponentially over the past two decades. During this time India has been increasingly moving towards a more open-market economy, reducing historic controls
on foreign trade and investment and privatising a range of government-owned companies across a range of sectors, from airports to electricity generation to telecommunication firms. This has catalysed India to be one of the fastest growing emerging markets, with its GDP growing by seven per cent each year on an average since 1995. India's 'economic miracle' has been
underpinned by a significant expansion in its advanced manufacturing, engineering and
ICT industries and is forecast to continue. The IMF in 2009 projected India's GDP would grow in real terms by more than 7.5 per cent on an average from 2010 to 2014. India's economy
is projected to be 60 per cent of the size of the United States economy by 2025 and second only to China by 2050.
Its acquisition plans include a substantial procurement program for the Army, Navy and Air Force. Realising that the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) effectively passed India by in the 1990s, the government is seeking to develop a flexible, mobile and networked defence
force with substantial power projection capabilities.
Many of the assets India is acquiring are at the leading edge of technology, including 180 Sukhoi Su-30MKI aircrafts, Scorpène class submarines, advanced Russian T-90 main battle tanks and state-of-the art information and communication systems. More than USD 42 billion in total defence expenditure is targeted by 2015, of which approximately USD 19.20 billion would be
expected to be spent on capital equipment for the Defence Armed Forces.
Key findings: acquisition plans by each domain
India's budgeted acquisition plans are expected to see an overall expansion of capital expenditure from approximately USD 19.20 billion by 2015 (Table 1). The Defence Service's capital expenditure budget is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10 per cent from 2011 to 2015.
This represents a marginal slow down in budgeted expenditure from the past decade (CAGR of budgeted expenditure of 13.8 per cent from 2003-2010).
Taking account of inflation, however, tempers the estimate of the overall opportunity; when accounting for India's inflation rate, the real growth in Defence Service capital expenditure is expected to be marginal over the next two years before increasing to a real growth rate of about 5.3 per cent from 2012 to 2015.
Navy and Coast Guard acquisitions
The Indian Government has publicly recognised that India's expanding maritime responsibilities and interests necessitate enhancement in naval and coast guard force levels. By 2022, the Indian Navy has plans to have a 160-plus ships Navy, including three aircraft carriers, 60 major combatants (including submarines), and close to 400 aircrafts of different types. The Indian Coast Guard is all set to double its force levels and manpower in the next few years and triple it in the next decade in order to protect the country's maritime zones and assets.
To read the full report: INDIAN DEFENCE MARKET
>FERTILIZER SECTOR: Sowing the seeds of Change (DOLAT CAPITAL)
We expect the sector to continue to gradually re-rate with pro active and favorable policy initiatives. With the step forward on complex fertilizer already in place, we hope that the government would follow through with similar steps on the urea segment.
We believe companies with strong raw-material tie-ups, plans for expansion and offering customized products would lead to higher volume growth. We therefore prefer stock specific approach .We are positive on Coromandel International (CIL) due to its strong business model and GSFC- beneficiary of NBS policy and high earnings visibility.
Relooking the Fertilizer Sector:
The latest Government Policy on Fertilizer Pricing and Subsidy is encouraging and a welcome step in the direction of deregulation of the industry.
We have identified the following drivers for industry that would act as a game changer and would make the sector attractive for the future growth potential which till now witnessed restricted growth due to its controlled regime.
■ Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS)
■ Raw-Material Sourcing
■ New Investment Policy-4 (NPS-4)
Positive on Complex Fertilizer
The shift in policy regime from product based subsidy to nutrient based subsidy opens a plethora of opportunities for complex players. This change would encourage use of right nutrients as per requirement of soil, thus limiting the excess use of highly subsidized nutrient which has resulted in soil degradation and effected productivity (annexure). With this new policy, players with established raw-material linkages and offering customized products would enjoy an edge over the other players. This in turn shall benefit players like Coromandel International as they have build up strategic tie-ups and strong marketing and distribution networks.
The Nutrient Based Subsidy has also introduced a fixed subsidy regime and has left the market price floating in accordance with the demand and supply situation with a possibility of intervention by Government if the prices rise unreasonably. This has already led to an increase in prices of DAP (Di-Ammonium Phosphate) and MOP (Muriate of Potash) by Rs. 600 per
tonne i.e. 6.4% and 13.5% respectively. This would result in efficient players being rewarded over their counterparts.
The sourcing of raw material is the key to enjoy the fruit of efficiency as it is the most critical factor determining sustainability of business. We believe that this is the key area where Coromandel shall perform better than its peers. Its tie-up with Foskor and Tunisian Joint Venture with GSFC would lead to additional flow of phosphoric acid which would in turn lead
to production growth of 18% and 11% in FY11 and FY12. GSFC will also get access to the additional raw-material and would lead to production of customized complex fertilizers.
We remain positive on the complex fertilizer space and we recommend an accumulate on Coromandel International Fertilizer and a buy on GSFC.
Urea opportunities ahead
Similar to the policy pronouncements for the complex fertilizers, we expect the New Investment Policy IV to address the key issues for the urea segment as well. The key focus shall be to reduce the dependency on imports and encourage capacity expansion in India. The current urea capacity at 20 Mn MT has been stagnant for over a decade now.
We also observe that the expected policy is part of the ongoing series of steps that the government has been taking to move towards deregulation of the sector. The first leg of this has been witnessed with gas replacing all other high cost and unviable feedstocks. Further, the linking of additional production through Greenfield/Brownfield /Revamping to International Parity Pricing (IPP) has brought in the much needed impetus required to attract investments. NPS-III was in effect till 31st March, 2010.We believe ,the NPS-IV which is just around the corner shall continue with the pro active mode and attract capacity expansion. One of the provisions that would be looked into keenly would be revising the floor price which currently is fixed at US $ 250 per tonne.
With the above backdrop, we believe Chambal will stand to benefit as it has recently commenced its brownfield expansion which will make any additional production over and above the cut-off limit qualify for IPP. We assume the volumes to increase from 1.9 MT to 2.1 in FY10 and 2.4MT in FY11E.However,we recommend a reduce on the stock as it is fairly priced and trades at 10.8x FY11E EPS.
To read the full report: FERTILIZER SECTOR
>GRASIM INDUSTRIES:Samruddhi lists today; to be merged with Ultratech by July end (UBS)
■ Upgrade to Buy after significant underperformance
We upgrade Grasim from Neutral to Buy and remove our short-term Sell rating on: 1) significant underperformance since the fixing of the record date of the demerger of the cement business i.e. 14 May 2010; and 2) compelling valuation at EV/T of US$80/t (US$115-140/t for other larger companies). We do not change our earnings or valuation estimates; we remove the value of the demerged cement business of Grasim (Samruddhi Cement, which lists today) and consequently, lower our price target to Rs2300 (from Rs2,875).
■ Samruddhi lists today; to be merged with Ultratech by July end
Samruddhi (the demerged cement business of Grasim) lists today on the BSE/NSE. We expect Samruddhi's share price to mirror Ultratech's share price in the ratio of 4:7 (i.e. one share of Samruddhi to trade equivalent to 4/7th of Ultratech's share price) as Samruddhi will be finally merged with Ultratech (four shares of Ultratech to be issued for seven shares of Samruddhi) by July end.
■ Ultratech to become largest cement player post merger
Ultratech will emerge as the largest pure-play cement company in India with a capacity of 48.8mt. It is planning to add additional 25mt capacity in the next five years. Post merger with Samruddhi, Ultratech's shares outstanding should increase to 274m from 124.5m shares (124.5+261.7*4/7). Samruddhi's shares outstanding are 261.7m (including 91.7m shares issued to Grasim's shareholders).
■ Valuation: upgrade to Buy; adjust price target to Rs2300
We continue to value Grasim on a sum-of-the-parts basis with Cement on 6.5x EV/EBITDA, VSF on 5.5x EV/EBITDA, and apply a 10% holding company discount to the cement business.
To read the full report: GRASIM INDUSTRIES
>HCC: Gearing up for a full fledged 'Dasve' launch by Dec'10; Lavasa visit
We recently visited Lavasa and returned impressed by the preparation for the full scale commercial launch of 'Dasve' by Dec'10. Lavasa Corporation Ltd (LCL) has already sold 1,850 apartments and villas till date spanning over 3.5mn sq ft and is confident of handing over keys to buyers by Mar'11 at the latest. The first set of 200 keys was handed over to the customers during Q4FY10. Phase I would have an additional 600 residential units, out of which the soft launch of 250- 300 units is expected to be announced over the next couple of months.
Among other significant developments since our last visit in Dec'09 have been formal launches of 'Dasvino Town & Country Club', 50 bed Apollo Hospital, 130 keys Mercure Hotel and an International Convention Centre (1,500 capacity). The Dasvino Town and Country Club has been established via a management agreement with International Leisure Consultants (ILC), Hong Kong and includes a Spa, Gymnasium, floodlit courts for tennis and squash, children's playroom, specialty restaurants, a business lounge and a pub.
Lavasa listing on cards by Q1FY12
HCC had plans for a potential listing of LCL by Oct-Nov'10. However, given the volatile market conditions that are not conducive for realty IPOs, the same has been postponed to early 2011. The company presently holds a 65% stake in the entity via its wholly owned subsidiary, HCC Real Estate Ltd (HREL). Avantha Group, Venkateshwara Hatcheries and some large private investors together hold the remaining equity. Additionally, eight banks and financial institutions hold ~11% (at an EV of Rs100bn) in the company via DDCDs. We believe the eventful listing of Lavasa shall play a major role in determining HCC's stock price performance over the next 12months. We retain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a SOTP based price target of INR170.
Lavasa valuation
As per our DCF calculation, LCL has a potential value of Rs57.7bn (~Rs123/share for HCC). While the company expects to execute the project over next 12-15 years, we have taken a longer execution period of ~20 years. We have also assigned a holding company discount of 20% to the final NAV of LCL. Key assumptions for Lavasa valuation are:
We have assumed a sale model for the entire area available (~163 mn sqft) given the lack of clarity on the future revenue stream of SPVs; LCL though shall hold a strategic 26% stake in all commercial, hospitality, leisure and social SPVs thereby becoming a perpetual partner in their growth.
We have taken a capital value at an average of Rs3,500/sqft for sale of residential development. For land/plot sales, we have assumed a rate of Rs100/sqft. From FY11 we have escalated capital values at ~10% CAGR.
Construction cost at Rs1,800/sq ft, escalated at 5% CAGR fromFY12 onwards.
To read the full report: HCC
>BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: BoP remains stable despite larger current account deficit
■ Current account deficit reaches new high in Q4FY10
India's BoP recorded a surplus of USD 2.1 bn during Q4FY10, more or less same as the previous quarter. Current account balance worsened a bit from the previous quarter, but was compensated by almost equal increase on the capital account.
Current account deficit stood at ~USD 13 bn during the quarter under review, amounting to ~3.4% of GDP, historically on the higher side. Among the important components of the current account, merchandise balance and private transfers deteriorated, while software earnings improved.
Capital account surplus recovered marginally to ~USD 15 bn in Q4FY10 from ~USD 14 bn in Q3. While FII and short-term trade credit have been robust, ECB has fallen sharply to near-zero in Q4. FDI trend has also been modest in recent quarters.
■ BoP stages a turnaround in FY10
On full FY10 basis, BoP situation is much healthier over FY09, recording a surplus of ~USD 14 bn against deficit of USD 20 bn in FY09.
On the current account side, considerable decline in invisibles was recorded primarily on the back of lower receipts under miscellaneous services despite a pick-up in software earnings and private transfers. Trade deficit was largely stable at ~USD 118 bn. Overall, current account deficit deteriorated by ~USD 10 bn during FY10.
As regards the capital account, FDI increased marginally, but FIIs and short term trade credit rebounded quite strongly with recovery in global sentiments and risk appetite. ECB, however, disappointed, falling to USD 2.5 bn in FY10 from ~USD 8 bn in FY09.
■ FII, ECB to determine BoP dynamics in the near term
In the coming quarters, the current account would be influenced by few key factors such as India's demand for imports, trends in global commodity prices particularly crude oil and movement in exchange rate. We expect India's import demand to remain strong but weaker demand in western economies would weigh on India's exports. However, likely subdued commodity prices amidst a weaker global recovery can potentially extend a favourable impact for India's trade balance.
Persistent and significant appreciation in the INR during FY10 (~13% in nominal terms against USD and ~18% in real terms – 6 currency REER) did not impact trade balance or software earnings in any significant way. However, continued appreciation in REER from current levels could prove unfavourable to these segments. This can potentially deter any improvement in India's trade balance in the coming quarters. Subdued economic activities in the developed countries are not conducive for an improvement in the invisibles account either.
The critical factor for any large swing in the overall BoP can, thus, come from the capital account only. Within capital account also, FDI is by and large stable. In sum, thus, the dynamics of the overall BoP would be weighed heavily by FII flows, ECBs and trade credit.
To read the full report: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS


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Young artist proves grant's worth
Hepzibah McLeod is proof that a little bit of financial assistance at the right time can pave the way for success in the future.
Hepzibah McLeod
When Hepzibah moved back to the South Hams in 2011 after completing a critical fine art practice degree at the University of Brighton, she did not have enough money to display her work properly at exhibitions to attract any potential buyers.
The South Hams Arts Forum (SHAF) stepped in to support her, with a grant and lots of encouragement, to enable Hepzibah to exhibit her work at that year's Arts Trail.
Nemetona
The 26-year-old is back this year, the youngest member to be exhibiting her work, using her own home studio in Strete as one of the 15 venues to give art enthusiasts an insight into the work behind the finished pieces.
This is a venue and artist not to be missed. Hepzibah is articulate, acutely intelligent, passionate, challenging but is still a real country girl at heart who is dedicated to her Devon roots.
"Moving to a city was the biggest culture shock in the world. I felt like I had dropped down from Mars! Although I quickly adapted and grew to love student life in Brighton, I found I really wanted to come home (after university). I just really needed to be here."
Educated at Kingsbridge Community College before completing an arts foundation course at South Devon College, Hepzibah grew up in Beeson. Her countryside upbringing is reflected in her work which largely features animals.
She explained: "We are all just animals. We are here for now, but if we were not here something else would be. I like to use animals as symbols too. My work blurs the distinction between human and animal. I explore this boundary through the visual domain of dreamscapes. The term 'dream' for me, umbrellas all domains of our mind space, including those of fantasy and imagination; dreams are the world in which we live our other lives; the lives of our psyche."
Hepzibah continued: "I love that people seem to absolutely love or hate my work. I want it to be controversial. I want my art to be powerful and challenging."
Some people have clearly loved her work, as she has sold a number of original pieces at previous Arts Trails, which means she has been able to continue working as a full-time artist. As a result, Hepzibah is grateful for the start SHAF have given to her career.
"I felt ridiculously young that first year of the Arts Trail. Most of the other artists were over 50, but the age gap is irrelevant in such an encouraging and friendly community as SHAF, they're experienced creative's that happily took my under their wing, they have been really supportive to me."
This year's nine-day Arts Trail, which will run from Saturday, October 17, to Sunday, October 25, will give art lovers the opportunity to see 51 local artists at work in 15 venues.
Brochures with all the details of the venues and the artists are now available from Tourist Information Offices in the area, as well as various libraries, hotels and shops. It can also be downloaded from the SHAF website at www.shaf.org.uk.
More information about Hepzibah can be found at www.hepzibahmcleod.com.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Education Expert Mel Ainscow Recommends 6 Actions to Ensure All Children Have Similar Rights and Opportunities
Although the immediate focus of the Salamanca conference was on what was termed special needs education, its conclusion was that the aim must be to develop inclusive education systems." – Mel Ainscow
David Wine - CM Rubin World /MNI Media
Of the 57 million children worldwide estimated to still be missing out on school, more than 40% are thought to be disabled. All youth have the right to learn together regardless of any disabilities or differences they may have. While progress has been made on achieving this global goal over the last 25 years, there is still more work to be done.
Professor Mel Ainscow is Emeritus Professor of Education, University of Manchester and was a keynote at UNESCO's recent International Forum on Inclusion and Equity in Education. The event commemorated the 25th anniversary of the World Conference on Special Needs Education that led to the UNESCO Salamanca Statement and Framework for Action on Special Needs Education, arguably the most significant international document that has ever appeared in the field of special education. Mel has been a consultant to UNESCO on a series of global initiatives aimed at findings ways of including all children in schools. We asked him to reflect on what has happened over that 25 year period and what lessons can be learned from his experiences in different parts of the world.
The Global Search for Education welcomes Mel Ainscow.
Mel, it's been 25 years since the publication of the Salamanca Statement. What progress has been made? What still needs to be done?
I attended the conference in 1994 and recall the enthusiasm that was generated by the discussions that took place. I also remember the splendid social programme organised for the delegates, with banquets, receptions and lots of Spanish wine. The wonderfully inclusive atmosphere that this created led me to think that by the end of the week those involved would 'sign anything'. That said, I could not have imagined the impact that all of this was to have over the following 25 years.
Although the immediate focus of the Salamanca conference was on what was termed special needs education, its conclusion was that the aim must be to develop inclusive education systems. This can only happen, it was argued, if mainstream schools become capable of educating all children in their local communities.
The years following Salamanca led to many developments in relation to this theme. For example, Italy has closed its special provision; New Brunswick in Canada pioneered the concept of inclusive education; India saw a significant push towards increased enrolment in schools; and Portugal enacted an explicit legal framework for the inclusion of all students. Significant developments have also occurred in the Pacific region, where inclusive education has been identified as a regional priority by all countries.
Despite these encouraging developments, progress has slowed in recent years.And, significantly, it is estimated that, of the 57 million children worldwide missing out on school, more than 40% are thought to be disabled.
What achievements are you most proud of that have addressed the inclusion agenda? Can you suggest any relevant resources
I suppose my greatest pride is my success in bringing people together to address the inclusion agenda. This has involved a series of initiatives to develop practical resources. Recently, one of these led to the publication of the UNESCO Guide for Ensuring Inclusion and Equity in Education. This offers practical support to member states as to what actions need to be taken to promote inclusion.
Drawing on international research, the Guide was developed with the advice and support of a group of international experts. It allows readers to learn from the progress made by other countries towards more inclusive education systems. For example:how Ghana assesses the inclusiveness of its mainstream schools; how Denmark is developing a sense of community by listening to the views of children; and how students help teachers to innovate in Portugal. These examples advance the right of every learner to be included in schools.
Those involved in taking this challenging agenda forward may also find it useful to use the related resource pack, 'Reaching Out to All Learners', that I developed with colleagues at the International Bureau of Education-UNESCO. Drawing on international research evidence, these materials are intended to support inclusive thinking and practices at all levels of an education system. Consequently, they are designed to be relevant to teachers, school leaders, district level administrators, teacher educators and national policy makers
What actions are needed to move education systems in an inclusive direction?
My recommendations are guided by the idea that inclusion should not be seen as a separate policy. Rather, it should be viewed as a principle that informs all policies, guided by six related actions:
Action 1: Establish a clear definition of what is meant by inclusion in education. In some countries, inclusive education is still thought of as an approach to serving children with disabilities within general education settings. Internationally, however, it is increasingly seen more broadly as a principle that supports and welcomes diversity amongst all learners. The aim is to eliminate exclusion that is a consequence of attitudes and responses to diversity in race, social class, ethnicity, religion, gender, and ability. It starts from the belief that education is a basic human right and the foundation for a more just society.
Action2: Use evidence to identify contextual barriers. It is important to know who is included, who is segregated and who is excluded from schooling. Without an engagement with evidence in relation to all of these forms of exclusion, there can be no accountability. In particular, the views of young people must be sought and valued, particularly those from at-risk groups. Their voices can challenge policy makers and practitioners to find more effective ways of ensuring that all children are included.
Action 3: Support teachers in promoting inclusion. Countries where teachers believe their profession is valued show higher levels of equity in learning outcomes. Therefore, schools need to be reformed and practices need to be improved in ways that lead teachers to feel supported in responding positively to student diversity –seeing individual differences not as problems to be fixed, but as opportunities for enriching learning.
Action 4: Design the curriculum with all learners in mind. In an education system based on the principle of inclusion, all students are assessed on an on-going basis in relation to their progress through the curriculum.This allows teachers to respond to a wide range of individual learners, bearing in mind that each learner is unique. It means that teachers and other professionals must be well informed about their students' characteristics and attainments, while also assessing broader qualities, such as their capacity for cooperation.
Action 5: Manage education systems in ways that will engage all learners. Movement towards inclusion is likely to require some restructuring of education provision. Such changes may be resisted by some of those involved, not least parents who understandably want to do the best for their own children. It is therefore essential to have a shared commitment amongst senior staff at the national, district and school levels to value differences, invest in collaboration, and commit to providing educational opportunities that are inclusive.
Action 6: Involve communities in promoting inclusion. Governments need to mobilize human and financial resources, some of which may not be under their direct control. Forming partnerships among key stakeholders who can support the process of change is therefore essential. The engagement of families is particularly crucial. In some countries, parents and education authorities cooperate closely in developing community-based programmes for certain groups of learners, such as those who are excluded because of their gender,social status or impairments.
What does this mean for future developments?
These six actions mean that governments must make a clear and genuine commitment to inclusion, emphasizing the benefits for parents and children, and for the community at large. Here, it is useful to distinguish between needs, rights and opportunities. While all learners have needs (e.g. for appropriate teaching), they also have the right to participate fully in a common social institution (that is, a local mainstream school) that offers them a varied range of relevant opportunities. Too often, parents are forced to choose between ensuring that their child's needs are met (which sometimes implies placement in a special school or separate classroom) and ensuring that they have the same rights and opportunities as other learners (which means placement in a mainstream school).
Just to add, like all major policy changes, progress in relation to inclusion requires an effective strategy for implementation. In particular, it requires new thinking that focuses attention on the barriers experienced by some children. Overcoming such barriers is the most important means of development forms of education that are effective for all children. Inclusion becomes a way of achieving the overall improvement of education systems.


Columbia Extrusion Machine Winch - Allied Power Products, Inc.
Why APPI: Extruding tough materials for products such as brick, block and tile takes tough machines but regardless of how tough the machine might be, it still needs periodic maintenance and repair. When Jody Robinson, engineer for JC Steele & Sons, identified a need for a winch to pull sections of one of their machines out on a rail and bearing system, compact size and minimal maintenance were the top two requirements on her must have list. Equipped with a strap to eliminate the issues of using wire rope for short distances and with a frequent load, unload scenario, one of our Columbia WG11000 AC units was a perfect match for their extrusion machine winch needs.
Please contact us if you would like more information about this particular extrusion machine winch system or any of our other products and services.


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Jennifer Corr - January 24, 2023
Dave Gil de Rubio - January 24, 2023
Long Island Weekly: A Year In Celebrity Interviews
Dave Gil de Rubio - December 31, 2022
Lucius: Dancing Like Nobody's Watching With Second Nature
Dave Gil de Rubio - December 5, 2022
How Andrea Bocelli Is Bringing A Very Family Christmas To The Masses
Jimmy Smits' Fave Acting Influences
Dave Gil de Rubio - November 25, 2022
Show Comes To Vanderbilt Planetarium Beginning on Jan. 6, Long Islanders had their chance to escape reality by stepping into the Vanderbilt Museum and Reichert Planetarium in East Northport. Long Island Weekly caught up with the musical artist behind the show, James...
From open mics in cafes to performance venues like the Industry Lounge & Gallery in Huntington, Coffee Nap is sure making its mark on Long Island. They played at Industry on Jan. 13 as part of the Indie Rock Adjacent Show.. Interestingly,...
On Jan. 7, Antigone Rising, a band that has roots in Glen Cove and Sea Cliff, performed at yoga studio and event center, Buddha Jams, in Glen Cove. Joanie Leeds, who won a Grammy for Best Children's Album with All the...
If shoes make the man, then meet Darren Smith, the man who makes the shoes. Far from being your average cobbler, Smith is the founder and creative director of Barollo Shoes, a luxury footwear brand whose bespoke approach has garnered a...
Anton Media Staff - January 23, 2023
Las Vegas Sands today announced the launch of SandsNewYork.com, a new website created to share information on the project, encourage community collaboration, and directly engage local Long Islanders on their ideas, questions, and concerns. "We are not here to convince, we are...
Over the years, Long Island Weekly has managed to corral numerous celebrities from the worlds of music, television, film and publishing for some intriguing conversations. The year 2022 was no different. Here are some of the highlights. Buddy Guy The year 2023 will...
Dogtopia, one of the nation's leading dog daycare, boarding and spa franchises, has opened its newest location in Garden City Park. The new Dogtopia location is operated by Thomas Smith and Prima Gupta. After receiving her bachelor's degree in cyber security from...
Frank Rizzo - December 29, 2022
A crusade to improve conditions for feral cats Stuart Kroll of Great Neck is an unabashed cat lover. He has appeared numerous times before the Town of North Hempstead Town Board over the past several years to urge trustees to do more...
From open mics in cafes to performance venues like the Industry Lounge & Gallery in Huntington, Coffee Nap is sure making its mark on Long Island....
By Allison Simms Falls may not be at the top of our minds as we consider health goals for the new year, but the probability it may...
On Jan. 7, Antigone Rising, a band that has roots in Glen Cove and Sea Cliff, performed at yoga studio and event center, Buddha Jams, in...
Christy Hinko - January 23, 2023 0
Ruth's Chris Steak House, famous for its unmatched dining experience and steaks served on 500-degree sizzling plates, announced its newest location in Melville, which...
Las Vegas Sands today announced the launch of SandsNewYork.com, a new website created to share information on the project, encourage community collaboration, and directly...
Christy Hinko - January 11, 2023
Supervisor Joseph Saladino and his colleagues on the Oyster Bay Town Board recently presented the Town of Oyster Bay Martin Luther King, Jr. Distinguished Service Award to retired United States Army Staff Sergeant Arturo Jerome...
Retired Educators Donate To Veterans
Christy Hinko - January 3, 2023
Angelo Grande, chairperson for community service for the Long Island Zone of Retired Educators of New York (RENY) and Kathryn Grande, co-chair of Glen Head presented a donation of brand-new clothing, socks, shirts and underwear...
Jewish War Vets Meet: January 19
The next meeting of the Jewish War Veterans (JWV) Post 652 will take place on Thursday, January 19, at noon at Congregation Ohav Shalom, 145 S. Merrick Ave, Merrick. Lunch will be served. Please enter...
Over the years, Long Island Weekly has managed to corral numerous celebrities from the worlds of music, television, film and publishing for some intriguing conversations. The year 2022 was no different. Here are some of...
Dogtopia, one of the nation's leading dog daycare, boarding and spa franchises, has opened its newest location in Garden City Park. The new Dogtopia location is operated by Thomas Smith and Prima Gupta. After receiving her...
A crusade to improve conditions for feral cats Stuart Kroll of Great Neck is an unabashed cat lover. He has appeared numerous times before the Town of North Hempstead Town Board over the past several years...
The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) today announced the passing of renowned track photographer Bob Coglianese, whose work from Belmont Park, Saratoga Race Course and Aqueduct Racetrack, served as the standard of excellence in...
Resident urges better enforcement of North Hempstead gas-powered blower law Al Franklin wondered if he is the proverbial lone voice in the wilderness. Earlier this summer, he stepped out of his North New Hyde Park residence to...
Thunderbirds To Headline 2023 Air Show
Bethpage Federal Credit Union, New York State's largest credit union, and the New York State Office of Parks, Recreation and Historic Preservation, have announced that the United States Air Force Thunderbirds will headline the 19th...
Although winter has been overly kind this season, the weekend farmer's market in Great Neck has moved inside the Great Neck House through the...
Four Chaplains Ceremony 2023
Supervisor Joseph Saladino and his colleagues on the Oyster Bay Town Board recently presented the Town of Oyster Bay Martin Luther King, Jr. Distinguished...


Part of our new relaxed collection, this tee is available in a variety of fabrications and features a crew neck, short sleeves and a new modern, relaxed fit for effortless style. Offered in a rainbow of solid, triblend and mineral wash colors.
Mineral Wash*: 100% cotton, 32 single 4.4 oz.


The weather is warming and people are looking for reasons to celebrate. Every year on May 5th Americans celebrate the Mexican Army's unlikely victory over the French at the Battle of Puebla. A battle that we were not involved in, but nonetheless we use this date as an excuse to celebrate Mexican-American culture. And a truly great culture it is.
Our friends threw a Cinco de Mayo party this past Friday and I did not feel like arriving empty handed so I brought some fun things to up-the-celebration-annie, as it were.
As for the Empanadas. This particular dish is not exactly Mexican… so don't say I didn't warn you. It's definitely South and Latin American as opposed to Mexican. But I had a craving and I just needed any excuse I could find to get these pockets of yum in my tummy.
My college roommate and I took a trip to New York in 2014 and found the most amazing empanadas that we still rave about to this day. So, these are not those, but they are close. Delicious hot pockets of Mexican flavors. Easy and tasty. I recommend them. They were the most popular dish at the party.
Last but not least I thought I needed to dress a little more festively than usual. So, I added a few brightly colored tissue paper flowers to a spare strip of craft leather for a homemade piñata flower crown. No mo siesta's, it's time to fiesta!
Follow Bailey and Scene on Instagram and Twitter. Stay up to date on your local Abilene activities with our #EventsToBeScene series.


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QUACK CURES AND WEIRD REMEDIES
THE TAPE WORM DIET
Beauty starts from the inside out, and maintaining a trim and slim figure was particularly prized in England during the 1800s. One particular dissucting. beauty regimen that gained some traction was the ?tapeworm diet,? where people looking to shed pounds would swallow pills containing sanitized tapeworm larvae, which would take up residence in your stomach. The worms would divert your excess calories to their own bodies and grow larger and larger until you had them removed (a very unpleasant process). Thankfully, this particular diet fell out of fashion pretty quickly.
Black Lacquered Teeth
Whiter teeth might be popular now, but it was quite the opposite for those in Japan throughout the Meiji era. Women who were married used a lacquer dye on the faces of all of their teeth, staining them a deep, brilliant black (single women had white teeth). First the rind of a pomegranate was rubbed against the teeth to prime the enamel, then the dye?made from iron filings and the gallnuts of the Japanese sumac tree?was applied. It was a foul, time-consuming process that had to be repeated every three days or so.
WHITE LEAD FACIALS
In the Age of Enlightenment, the trend for beauty was toward aristocratic paleness. Color in the skin meant you spent time outside, which usually meant backbreaking labor. The whiter your skin, the richer you could appear. Since human beings naturally have a bit of color, the beauty treatment back then was to apply a powder made of white lead, calcium carbonate and hydroxide to every inch of exposed flesh. That powder introduced toxins over time that caused various side effects, including skin inflammation and baldness.
Portuguese Urine Mouthwash
Teeth are a vital part of your overall beauty, but before the invention of modern dental technology it was tricky to keep them clean and bright. The ancient Romans believed that they had the solution?the urine of Portuguese people. Jars of urine were shipped in from Portugal because they thought that it was a more powerful cleansing agent than home-grown Roman urine. The ammonia in urine is actually good for disinfection, and it continued to be used as an active ingredient in mouthwash until at least the 18th century.
During the 19th and 20th centuries, as the world?s population began to expand, many industries experimented with a wide range of medicines. During this time in history, the scientific community conducted many trials with new drugs. New substances were often discovered that had a direct impact on the human brain. In some cases, international companies took advantage of the loose market standards and released potentially hazardous products. A good example of this is Mrs Winslow?s soothing syrup, which was a medical formula compounded by Mrs. Charlotte N. Winslow, and first marketed in Bangor, Maine, USA, in 1849.
The product was advertised as ?likely to sooth any human or animal?, and it was specifically targeted at quieting restless infants and small children.
The formula?s ingredients consisted of a large amount of morphine sulphate, powdered opium, sodium carbonate and aqua ammonia. Mrs Winslow?s soothing syrup was widely used during the 19th century to calm wild children and help babies sleep. This cocktail of drugs worked immediately and slowed the children?s heart rate down by giving them harmful depressants. The syrup had an enormous marketing campaign in the UK and the US, showing up in newspapers, recipe books, calendars and on trade cards. During the early 20th century the product began to gain a reputation for killing small babies. In 1911, the American Medical Association incriminated Mrs Winslow?s Soothing Syrup in a publication named Nostrums and Quackery, in a section titled Baby Killers.
Mrs Winslow?s soothing syrup was not withdrawn from shelves in the UK until 1930. In 1897, chemists at the Bayer pharmaceutical company in Elberfeld, Germany, began experimenting with diacetylmorphine, or heroin. From 1898 through 1910, the Bayer Company sold diacetylmorphine to the public. The substance was marketed under the trademark name Heroin and was put on supermarket shelves as a non-addictive morphine substitute and cough suppressant. In fact, the Bayer Heroin product was two times more potent than morphine itself and caused countless people to become addicted. The public response was immediately evident, but the company continued to sell Heroin for over ten years. The era has since become a historic blunder for the Bayer Company, and world organizations in charge of keeping people safe from these harmful chemicals.


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Casting Architecture
Great Buildings in a Best Supporting Role
Love Architecture? Love Film? Then you've come to the right place.
This site is dedicated to the real life buildings which have engaged and inspired in feature films but have largely gone uncredited.
L'appartement - 1996
L'appartement - starring Monica Belucci and Vincent Cassel featured a Guimard inspired Art Nouveau apartment that did more for French Tourism in the 1990's than the Tour de France. And without the performance enhancing drugs.
Fracture 2007 - The Sherman Residence
© Grant Mudford
2007's release Fracture, starring Ryan Gosling and Anthony Hopkins didn't receive many industry accolades. Surprising, given the stellar performances and the stylish production. Reviewers complained that it should have been better than it was, or that the plot was unoriginal or predictable. No matter. To those with an interest in the built environment, the casting of Peter Tolkin's Sherman House made the film infinitely watchable. Restrained and elegant, the house provided the perfect crime scene, complicit in the murder of its hostess.
This film pits the generations against each other. An upstart young lawyer (Gosling), against a methodical aeronautical engineer (Hopkins) charged with the murder of his wife. For the most part, generation Y comes off inadequate and ill prepared, outplayed by the more experienced party.
The Fast and The Furious 2001 - Davis Residence
Tue 03 Dec 2013
Paul Walker will probably be most often remembered for his association with the Fast & Furious series. His popularity grew with the franchise, as did the sophistication of each production. Over the years the cars became more high tech, stunts became more elaborate and the plot more extreme but it is the very first release, 2001's The Fast and The Furious though, that is, for me, the most memorable. You guessed it – because it featured a fabulous house.
Body Double 1984 - Chemosphere
© Joshua White
Long missing from this discussion is a post about John Lautner's most recognisable building – the groundbreaking, distinctive and iconic structure, The Chemosphere. Now an LA architectural landmark, the building has taken five decades to earn its status and has achieved it largely as a result of the film industry's fascination with its futurist aesthetic. The house can be spotted in countless features on both the big and small screens and is referenced in many more - including Charlies Angels and the Iron Man series.
Twilight 2008 - Hoke Residence
© Skylab Architecture
Built speculatively by Skylab Architecture in association with local developers – a method of showcasing a fledgling practice's work without the need for a sympathetic Client (which was possible in the boom times of the early 2000's) – the Hoke Family purchased the house not long after completion and were approached by the film production team after the house featured in an architectural publication. The decision to proceed is possibly something they have come to regret considering the fanatical nature of Twilight fans.
Whether you are a fan of the series or have reservations about telling teenagers that love is like the feeling of wanting to devour someone (surely teenage girls have enough unhealthy food associations?) this building is a standout.
Casting Architecture all began as a list. Many architects have them – a list of all the beautiful buildings to visit at some point. My list always included a large portion of buildings I'd seen in movies. Possibly more than a serious architect would reasonably have. Or admit to.
Read my archdaily articles here


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Q: which one is the fastest? I'm working on a website which is used on Chrome and IE8. I made it with Javascript and it works fine on Chrome but it is slow on IE.
Is VBScript faster than Javascript on IE? Would I translate my code in VBScript for IE?

A: VBScript is executed for web sites on IIS(web servers), JavaScript mostly on client side.
I do not see how it would not work on any browsers unless you uploading something to client machines as vbs file. That is dangerous and could be considered as security threat - antivirus program may simply block it or delete file all together.
Basically question is not about if VBScript supported or not by any browsers simply because browsers never-ever touching VBScript, but what you attempt to do with VBScript. And anyone who is saying that it does not supported by any browser need to take a lessons from W3S school all over again.
It is different purpose scripting languages on the web: VBScript for servers side processing while JavaScript mostly to be used running on client side. And before anyone starts discussing that JavaScript can be used on server side please look what I put in bold letters. There are javascript libraries  AJAX and JQUERY etc. which can be used to process data as well as connecting to web servers.
If you are looking for replacement of VBScript - C# is the best place to start since you already working on Microsoft platform, NET would be logical choice. There is lot of other languages to choose from but you need carefully consider what your project is all about, budget and time needed to rebuild your project/site.
However you can write VBScript and JavaScript batch files for local execution but as I understand that is not part of your question.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Education Week blogger Dave Powell's Commentary, in which he wrote that politics are harming the Common Core State Standards, elicited an avalanche of responses from readers. Reactions ranged from the supportive to highly critical. Commentary intern Helen Yoshida chronicled the debate in Storify form.


Yes, that is a schedule. Do see disc sizes directly mentioned? I suspect they were discussed.
AH0-22 has been "studying" RPC on HD DVD since it was approved as an Ad Hoc group at SC34 back in May 2006 in an effort to appease some fence sitters.
EDIT: Technically, it was being studied prior to May 2006...I think it started formally in February 2006, based on discussions from late 2005.
Now that I can agree with, but considering all the enthusiasm for TL51 I think space is a little more desired than previously admitted. I did find Bandwidth to be a little silly, since Payback had a horrible translation while something like PoC2 had beautiful clarity.
Might not be good news. Looks like TL51 is going to be moved to a new spec number.
Could indicate incompatibility with existing hardware specs.
But It can also mean that the finalized spec is going to be 2.0. Soon perhaps?
ETM And FSM (Used in the China spec 10.0) state the low level modulation scheme used to write the data on the disc.
4) Realization of stable operation on the compatible drive.
- In order to achieve not only high density and large capacity but also stable operation for HD DVDs, an adaptive PRML system was developed, and an ETM modulation code was adopted. The ETM code is suitable for the PRML system. By adoption of this adaptive PRML system and ETM code, amplitude margin deterioration is compensated for by stable high-density playback operation.
- Drive operation for DVDs and CDs is realized through maximum exertion of current DVD/CD compatible drive firmware technology and LSI technology, which was developed for the present DVD combo drive business.
The interesting part is that an adaptive prml system looks like an integral part of HD DVD drive technology. So TL compatibility isn't ruled out for early generation players yet.
Could not find much on that.
An entire diffrent modulation scheme means that Chinese discs will probably never play in current HD DVD players.
Stereo is simply Multichannel light.
A revision of the spherical aberration code does not mean that existing players cannot read this.
I think the BD bunch are trying very hard to turn this meeting into some proof that HD DVD is "doomed yet again"
I have no idea what sherical apperition or whatever means,.. I was trying to be a little funny. I think it refers to refocusing the laser but anyway,.. sometimes when I joke,.. you can't tell maybe because it lacks teh funny.
Next time I'll put a smilie or try to make a joke that's funny or both.
I have no idea what sherical apperition or whatever means,.. I was trying to be a little funny. I think it refers to refocusing the layer but anyway,.. sometimes when I joke,.. you can't tell maybe because it lacks teh funny.
Sorry, Brian - I must have inadvertantly mistaken your jocular statement for FUD.
Lens focusses rays falling at different angles on a lens system not in a single point.
Sorry, Brain - I must have inadvertantly mistaken your jocular statement for FUD.
LOL how many times do people named Brian get called Brain by mistake? I first heard it when I was a kid, and I still chuckle.
Although I doubt Fox is considering HD DVD now, if HD DVD prevails, I would say that single region coding will need be available and HD DVD should admit the mistake and implement it now. There is nothing to indicate that the market can sustain both formats so doing whatever is necessary to satisfy all studios makes the most sense. Paramount, Warner, Universal and the rest can continue to release titles without ever using single region coding. The last time I looked at all of the Blu-ray releases that had used single region coding, Disney, Buena Vista and Sony did have some, but it wasn't nearly a majority that used it but still it needs to be an option for those studios as well.
It was just a dumb move by HD DVD not to offer the option in the first place and all it could ever possibly mean is that HD DVD would not have any releases that required region coding, not that Fox could be forced to release titles without single region coding. The sooner HD DVD admits the mistake and fixes it, the better off the format will be for the long haul, if there is one.
While everyone is discussing this press conference, Pans labyrinth has been announced in the US, it does hint at region coding for hd dvd.
The Blu-ray Disc release is coded for Region A, but so is the HD DVD release if you believe the back cover artwork. We're certain it's just a mistake as there is no region coding on HD DVD, but it's bound to get chins wagging over the next few days!
I would say it likely is. If a HD-DVD movie implemented region coding, I doubt everyone would find out about it due to some cover art. As it would be the first movie to do so, some sort of coverage would be expected.
Heh! Thanks Urza - fixed!
Most likely the releases share a large part of the artwork.
Most likely forgot to remove the region code indication from the HD DVD artwork.
I noticed your avatar looks very "blue", doesn't it?? Are you trying to tell us something sub consciously???
I haven't been able to find an image of the back covers yet.
Just out of curiosity, do you know the whole story behind region coding and how it's being utilized in Europe these days? It's an antiquated idea that serves no purpose now. Do you realize that nearly every player sold in the EU is either all-region coded or can be "upgraded" to ensure region playback from all regions?
Disney uses it for their Vault advertising.
Thanks for the info wnorris, interesting stuff.
Yes . . Thank you wnorris for getting us the facts.
funny thread, thanks for the entertainment.
Well, this is just my translation. I wouldn't call them facts, as I'm not an expert translator or anything. However, my translation is vastly different from KL's interpretation of a bad machine translation.
I may be getting some of the minute details wrong, but my basic impression is that it mostly works, but there are some questions about can it do this, or what if we want to do that, etc. Trivial stuff like whether they can put two readable bar codes in the center vs one (so maybe DVD Profiler won't be able to read the disc ID automatically and add the disc to your collection).
I think the only potential serious hurdle could be with the region coding. Depending on what they discover, it could mean that a disc must choose to have region coding for either the DVD layer, or the HD layer, but not both. This may mean studios like Fox or Disney would refuse to use it because they want region coding on both.
Of course, it just means no twin disc, not no TL51 HD DVD with a seperate DVD release.
The other big issue could potentially be (in translation it isn't clear if the spherical abberation is referring to only HD DVD, or also DVD) that they learn 50% of DVD players on the market won't read twin discs because they aboslutely need PRML to correct for spherical abberation and don't have it. Then they would need to decide if they want to go forward with marketing Twin Disc at all (is it worth the hassel), or does it just change strategy (new DVD players add a PRML logo to their box, and consumers get educated that they need to buy these to play the new Twin Discs). Since spherical abberation gets worse the closer and further away you get from the focal point, it would seem layer 3 (the furthest away) would be the most effected. I think the slide that shows the change in thickness is basically saying it is possible to change the spacing on three layers so that layer 3 is much closer to where it would typically be for DVD, which may negate the need for PRML on DVD players (so one layer spacing for TL51 and a seperate spacing for 3 layer Twin Disc).
It's all still being investigated. So I will agree that nothing about triple layer is a slam dunk just yet. But nothing here points that they have concretely identified a problem.
Is it possible to offer the DL/TL Twin with region coding on the DVD layer(s) and not that HD layer(s)?
Do we know if Freedom 1 & 2 have region coding on the SD layer?
Well, in the absence of neutral data I guess wnorris must be right. If he can't read Japanese or understand the data he sure is faking it well. A Google translation is at best iffy anyway.
I hope we can get this properly translated, some of it doesn't make any sense.
I think it's rude for other countries to use a foreign language!
It is the disc, not the player that is region coded, I believe.


The statistic shows the share of fathers who made use of the optional parental leave in Italy in 2017. According to the survey, 28 percent of the respondents did not know about the possibility.
* The parental leave lasts for a maximum of 180 days in the first 8 years of your child's life; allowance is equal to 30 percent of pay.
Everything On "Families in Italy" in One Document: Edited and Divided into Handy Chapters. Including Detailed References.
Statistics on "Families in Italy"
Do you think is it possible for a father to find a balance between the working life and the family?
According to you, to which extent are fathers safeguarded?
According to you, do fathers share the children´s care and management with the wife/partner?
Can you reconcile work and family life?
According to you, to which extent are the specific needs of fathers taken into account at work?
Which of the following statements about parental leave do you personally agree with?


clip attached so you can it to a key ring, or similar.
Flip open a little compartment and you can plug in a mini SD card (including mini SDHC). Snap that down and the whole compartment then swivels around on its axis revealing a USB plug which can be plugged into your PC (or Mac) for quick and simply access to the card contents.
According to the packaging it's compatible with Windows, Linux and Mac.


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Communications Are DOWN in Parts of California: Radio, TV, Internet, Cell Towers Fall Victim to PG&E Blackouts As Wildfires Rage
(Dagny Taggart) California is burning, and the planned power outages initiated by Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) have understandably enraged a lot of residents, particularly due to an unexpected consequence: the blackouts have cut power to many cellphone towers.
Not having cell phone service is contributing to a dangerous lack of access to vital information. Many impacted residents are also without television and the internet, and 26 radio stations were out of service as well, further limiting emergency communication.
Without cell service, signing up for emergency wildfire evacuation notices or using backup chargers to keep phones going during a power outage is useless.
According to the San Francisco Chronicle,
On Tuesday, nearly 224,000 customers across the state were without communication services — television, internet, and phone — according to data that companies reported to the Federal Communications Commission. That number dropped from more than 450,000 Monday.
Hundreds of cell sites were down. In Marin County, 35% of cell sites were down. In Sonoma County, it was 22%; Napa County: 15%; Contra Costa County: 3.8%; and San Mateo County: 3.5%. (source)
This afternoon, The Wall Street Journal reported that according to Federal Communications Commission data, cable and wireline phone companies said 173,058 subscribers were without service as of Wednesday morning.
When cell service is down, so is the ability to call 911.
"The biggest concern is that when it comes to 911 calls, 81 percent of 911 calls are made from your wireless phone so having cell sites down it's an incredible public safety concern that consumers cannot access emergency services," Ana Maria Johnson with the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) told KTVU Fox 2. She added that cell towers don't have back-up power systems because cell companies are not required to do so. The Public Advocates Office, an independent organization within the CPUC, has petitioned cellular companies to have generators and back-up batteries on-site.
The reasons that cell service may be lost during blackouts are complex and are explained in detail in the article California Wildfires: Cell Companies Can't Promise Indefinite Service. To gain a more in-depth understanding of the issue, I recommend reading that article, but here is an excerpt:
Most cell stations in California have backup options, like batteries and generators. However, some major cell phone carriers told the Federal Communications Commission in filings this week that if physical access to cell towers is cut off, they can't guarantee service.
Backup power options "are not effective for mitigating the disruption to wireless communications when our facilities are damaged by fire," AT&T told the FCC.
Verizon said some of its sites in California don't have backup generators due to zoning and other restrictions, so the company will use portable generators that can be refueled. But whether to refuel a generator during a wildfire depends on access to the area, the safety of workers and the potential impact of wildfire, the company said.
"If (sites) lose commercial power, batteries kick in. If commercial power is lost for longer than the life span of the battery, the generator will kick in. We have a refueling plan for the generators if there's a prolonged outage," Verizon spokeswoman Heidi Flato said. "If there's an active wildfire, we don't always have access to the site, and that may impinge on our refueling plans." (source)
"You don't appreciate how essential cellphone service is until you lose it," Chris Ungson, deputy director for communications and water policy for the California Public Advocates Office, an independent agency within the state's Public Utilities Commission, told The New York Times. "It's not just a matter of inconvenience; it's a matter of public health and safety. It's a lifeline to many, many people."
Emergency calls to 911 are one indicator: The Governor's Office of Emergency Services said more than 80 percent of such calls in California last year were made by cellphone.
For years, state and federal regulators have pressed the cellular companies to better reinforce their networks for emergencies. The Federal Communications Commission said Monday that it was conducting "a comprehensive review of the wireless industry's voluntary commitment to promote resilient wireless communications during disasters."
The F.C.C. wrote to cellular carriers last month to express concern about service reliability as California's wildfire season neared, asking for an account of steps being taken "to promote the continuity of communications for public safety officials and residents." (source)
If you can't call 911, you won't be able to request help for medical emergencies.
And even if you ARE able to call 911, there is no guarantee medical facilities will be able to help you during a blackout.
Healthcare leaders told The Sacramento Bee that they are "confronting a level of disruption to delivering care and running their businesses that they have never seen in their careers" as a result of the California wildfires and PG&E's planned blackouts. Here are a few excerpts from The Sacramento Bee's report:
"I actually have never experienced a power outage where we were on emergency generator backup for 40 hours or more," said Dr. Brian Evans, the chief executive officer at Sierra Nevada Memorial Hospital in Grass Valley. "We've had short-term disruptions, but typically it wasn't one of these planned outages that lasted for quite some time. I would say, for me personally, it's been a career first."
Across California, wildfires and outages have forced healthcare providers to close hospitals and medical clinics, or greatly limit services. Both Kaiser Permanente and Sutter Health evacuated their hospitals in Santa Rosa last weekend, the second time in three years the medical centers had to be abandoned as flames and fumes approached.
Healthcare leaders said power outages create challenges for patients. They have to reschedule appointments, drive farther to get the service they need and, in the case of medically frail individuals, take extraordinary steps to ensure they have what they need to survive.
"It's really tough on patients, on the finances, on everything," Evans said. "You don't know all the various impacts. One thing that was interesting and very surprising was how it affected people in our community who are on oxygen. … We ended up admitting 11 people to the hospital during the first outage because they didn't have power to run equipment they needed."
This problem isn't going away anytime soon.
PG&E said its latest blackout would affect about 1.5 million people in 29 counties. At the same time, about 1 million people were still without power Tuesday after a shut-off over the weekend that affected nearly 2.7 million. Today, PG&E announced it would begin restoring power to certain areas – some today, some tomorrow – but many areas still have no estimated time of restoration listed.
The blackout Tuesday was PG&E's third in a week and the fourth in a month. It included the Sierra Nevada foothills and parts of Marin County, population 260,000, north of San Francisco. Many people in Marin have been without power since Saturday.
Meanwhile, more wildfires have erupted in Southern California, and about 26,000 people are being ordered to evacuate (most of which are mandatory), reports the Associated Press.
At an emergency meeting earlier this month, PG&E Chief Executive William D. Johnson said that California residents can expect to face widespread, precautionary blackouts for the next 10 years. He said the bankrupt utility giant will need that much time to be able to prevent its power transmission lines from sparking fires. While the need for widespread shutdowns should lessen every year, Johnson told commissioners, "I think this is probably a 10-year timeline to get to a point where it's really ratcheted down significantly," the Los Angeles Times reported.
Even if you do not live in California or in a region that is prone to wildfires, let the dire situation there serve as a cautionary tale: Please be sure to have backup sources of communication and a medical kit ready just in case a natural disaster strikes your area and knocks out access to emergency services.
Are you prepared for emergencies like wildfires and the potential loss of cell phone usage.
Dagny Taggart is the pseudonym of an experienced journalist who needs to maintain anonymity to keep her job in the public eye. Dagny is non-partisan and aims to expose the half-truths, misrepresentations, and blatant lies of the MSM.
https://www.activistpost.com/2019/10/communications-are-down-in-parts-of-california-radio-tv-internet-cell-towers-fall-victim-to-pge-blackouts-as-wildfires-rage.html
Related Topics:California firescellphone towers
Insects and spiders quickly disappear from the face of the Earth. What does this threaten?
Shibam. Ancient Manhattan in the desert
A tourist fell into a fire trap: published a creepy video from California
A cigar-shaped UFO bursts into the news broadcast on wildfires in California
In the upper atmosphere above the North Pole, experts saw a rapidly swirling vortex of cold air that could bring severe frosts to the United States, Northern Europe and East Asia. Serious cold snap and snowy weather are expected after January the 16th.
Snowfalls and a cold snap hit South Korea since the start of 2021, hitting historic snow maximums and temperatures. In the country, for the first time since 1964, television and newer communications are sending people cold snap warnings:
winter in South Korea. very cold my friend. enjoy the snow while drinking hot bitter coffee. pic.twitter.com/WcycIEpf2y
— Dhard (@Dhardyant1) January 6, 2021
https://twitter.com/sonyeoljin/status/1346841272347082752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The situation is similar in Japan, where a new snow storm hit historic highs:
On January 7, the thermometer In Beijing dropped to -20 degrees Celsius, breaking the 1966 record. In other regions of China, the temperature is also not sugar, and you can only move around in special uniforms:
The cold even reached Taiwan, where the temperature in some areas dropped below freezing point, snow poured down and people realized that rice terraces can be used as a ski jump:
Even more snow went to Spain, where on January 6, 2021, a temperature of -34.1 ° C was recorded – the lowest on record. After that, a snow storm hit the country, which has not been seen for 80 years:
https://youtu.be/pHU533Krs5M
The same thing happens in Canada and in the northern states of the United States:
I'm not too sure. But this is the current situation out there. Has not stopped blowing in over 24 hours!! pic.twitter.com/J69zeiHW01
— Amy Montague (@AmyMontague4) January 8, 2021
It seems that after a stratospheric warming, the subpolar vortex began to split:
I wrote in the December 21, 2020 blog our #PolarVortex (PV) model is predicting a major sudden stratospheric warming in early January and then again third week of January. Based on latest model forecasts there really does seem to be two distinct polar warming events in January. pic.twitter.com/vcMCPztoAh
— Judah Cohen (@judah47) January 8, 2021
The vortex itself is a standard phenomenon. However, this time experts were surprised at his movement. It is possible that in the near future it will be divided into two parts.
Scientists associate the strange behavior with the changed climate in the Arctic, which has become warmer. From September to December, the amount of ice cover decreased significantly.
The polar vortex is a low-pressure region located in the stratosphere and filled with cold air. When the jet stream of air that holds the vortex weakens, the low pressure area moves south.
As the ice shrinks, more moisture will move inland. It will turn to snow, so snowfalls are expected. Snow, in turn, reflects heat, leading to a cold snap.
Eyewitnesses said they heard a loud crash at dawn when a huge hole in the ground formed outside the Ponticelli Ospedale del Mare hospital in eastern Naples.
Early in the morning of January 8, 2021, a sinkhole occurred in the parking lot of a clinic in Naples. The depth of the formed cavity is about 20 meters, the total area of the hole is about 2,000 square meters.
No casualties were found at the scene; firefighters say the sinkhole "affected an area of about 500 square meters" and engulfed several cars parked near the hospital.
As the press writes and as a little can be seen from the videos, rescuers and firefighters were running around the pit together with the governor of the area. But who should be there in the forefront are Italian geologists, since Naples stands in the very center of the volcanic system known as the Phlegrean Fields.
If the surface collapsed, moreover – the surface reinforced with concrete and reinforced from below with some kind of communications, then we are talking about serious soil deformations caused by the activity of magma.
Italy has been in doubt since the summer of 2020, because swarms were observed there in very atypical places in May, and according to the forecasts of old Italian seismologists, who had witnessed many strong earthquakes, it should have boomed in the August region.
Fortunately, nothing bad happened to Italy and there was no big earthquake. But, since there are swarms, it means that something is being prepared, the magma is gathering strength.
Following this particular sinkhole event – an obvious sign that a major earthquake in Italy is already very close.
In the first months of 2020, the whole world with a certain fright followed the events unfolding in China, where people fell on the streets during the day and astronauts wandered, and in the evening crematoria began to smoke. And now, with the onset of December, the cycle seems to be repeating itself.
Shunyi area in Beijing, where the authorities announced "wartime status" the day before. As you can see in the videos, thousands of people are lined up in the queue for mandatory testing:
Shunyi District in Beijing has declared 'wartime status' with two villages completely sealed off.
The video shows thousands of people in a queue for mandatory testing in the neighboring district of Chaoyang, which includes the east side of downtown Beijing.
December 26-27, 2020 pic.twitter.com/sLR8Br5rJU
— Things China Doesn't Want You To Know (@TruthAbtChina) December 28, 2020
我觉得北京忽然封城绝对有猫腻
年前 需要各一大批韭菜。哪个吸血鬼也需要血啊。 还有 以后所谓的核酸检测就可以代替警察了。对付怕死的屁民绰绰有余。有的脑残还代替警察吆三喝四呢。
过年最乱。北京城需要武汉病毒保护。 pic.twitter.com/cCrBkzxbTr
— 娑婆世界 (@qingshanlan02) December 27, 2020
Dalian city, where "wartime" is also declared. Neighborhoods are blockaded, people are walled up in entrances, familiar characters of George Lucas roam the streets:
https://twitter.com/UndergroundSilk/status/1341741036297723905?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
大连金州。所有小区全封。
武汉鬼片再现。
多么诡异 ! pic.twitter.com/b556OQYPjw
#中共國疫情
12月27日,大连金州各小区单元楼全部封闭⋯⋯ pic.twitter.com/01wdNGkyLs
— 澤讓秋措141913 (@niepanxinglai) December 27, 2020
Chinese 'rescuers', before performing a combat mission:
我现在看到这种 方队像机器人一样 嗷嗷喊。就反胃。
大连消防坚决打赢消毒战役!
天天就是一个"打"的思维。可见多么弱。
这国被中共毁的透透的了。
谁来救救孩子和后代啊。 pic.twitter.com/MV7EJpfFzF
Chengdu City:
There have been 7 new confirmed cases in Chengdu in the past few days. In response, the city has declared 'wartime mode' with compulsory testing, travel restrictions, and the potential for mandatory lockdowns.
Chengdu, Sichuan Province pic.twitter.com/b9ADT2AcXg
— Things China Doesn't Want You To Know (@TruthAbtChina) December 9, 2020
Daluo Port, Yunnan – tourists came for adventure and they received the 'time of their life' after leaving the ramp:
云南打洛口岸。
你的祖国欢迎你。一切费用自理。 外国籍免费。
到底谁不把中国人当人?
中国人在国外隔离检测都免费。只有在中共国是自费。
而外国人在本国免费。在中共国也免费。属于全球免费。而中共国除了中国人不免费。其余国家全免费。
那些跪舔的粉qu 多么自豪。连qu都是二等qu。 pic.twitter.com/S1CCQfL48H
If something happens in Beijing, it does not mean that tomorrow the same will happen everywhere. However, the trend towards such dynamics is observed and, as the practice of the first wave of the pandemic has shown, all countries and people, to one degree or another, have taken into account the 'Chinese experience'.
Therefore, one must think that everything will now be in peace, as in spring – a new global round of the fight against the Covid has begun in China, a new great pandemic cycle!


text:
namespace FleetManagmentSystem.Models
{
    using System;
    using System.Collections.Generic;

    using FleetManagmentSystem.Common.Models;
    using System.ComponentModel.DataAnnotations;

    public class Vehicle : DeletableEntity
    {
        public Vehicle()
        {
            this.TechnicalInspections = new HashSet<TechnicalInspection>();
            this.Vignettes = new HashSet<Vignette>();
            this.MTOInsurances = new HashSet<MTOInsurance>();
            this.Waybills = new HashSet<Waybill>();
            this.OwnDamageInsurances = new HashSet<OwnDamageInsurance>();
        }

        [Key]
        public int Id { get; set; }

        public string LicenseNumber { get; set; }

        public int ManufactureId { get; set; }

        public virtual Manufacture Manufacture { get; set; }

        public string Owner { get; set; }

        public string VehicleModel { get; set; }

        public virtual ICollection<TechnicalInspection> TechnicalInspections { get; set; }

        public virtual ICollection<Vignette> Vignettes { get; set; }

        public virtual ICollection<MTOInsurance> MTOInsurances { get; set; }

        public virtual ICollection<OwnDamageInsurance> OwnDamageInsurances { get; set; }

        public virtual ICollection<Waybill> Waybills { get; set; }
    }
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
Jafari Law Group | California Employment Litigation & Patent Lawyers
Intellectual Property Law Firm
Patent Opinions
Patent Prosecution
IP Now
What is copyright infringement?
Written by David Jafari - December 22 2020
A lot of people confuse copyright and trademarks, but they are, in fact, very different. A trademark is a visual indicator that a service or product belongs to a particular company or entity (think logo)—copyright, on the other hand, grants exclusive legal rights to the originator of a piece of written or artistic material.
Performances, literary works, musical material, and films can all be copyrighted. The copyright is awarded by default to the author or creator of the piece unless a written statement transfers ownership of the copyright to someone else. Copyright infringement occurs when a piece of copyrighted material is recreated or distributed without proper permission being granted. Recreated copyrighted material can be done legally, so long as the owner licenses the piece.
Let's look at an example. A new blockbuster movie comes out in theaters. Tickets are sold out all over the country, and people are anxious to get a seat to see this incredibly influential film. One man viewing the film records the entire thing on his cell phone. He then uploads his recorded version online and charges people to download and view the movie. This would be considered an unlawful recreation of the film, and therefore that man would be guilty of copyright infringement.
In a more modern example, a popular new book comes out, and readers everywhere get attached to the gorgeous language. An industrious shirt maker starts creating shirts and sweatshirts with lines from the copyrighted book to make a profit. This could be considered copyright infringement, and you can currently find examples of it all over Etsy.
If you want to avoid participating in copyright infringement, follow this simple rule: If you do not own the material, do not use it. At first glance, this may sound limiting, but it is freeing in that it is the only way to operate without risk.
If you need assistance untangling yourself from a copyright infringement situation, reach out to Jarafi Law. We can help you sort everything out in a way that preserves copyright exclusivity. We have helped hundreds of clients copyright their material and can even help you research ahead of time to ensure that your copyright will not infringe on anyone else's.
Don't wait, call today.
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text:
Info-Graphs
When The World's Biggest Tech Companies Reached IPO
November 12, 2018 at 3:42 pm by Jacob Wolinsky
Last year saw the highest number of IPOs since the global financial crisis, with 1,700 companies going public in 2017, an increase of 44% on the previous year. With many fears that companies were shying away from IPOs this record ipo milestone figure has proved that companies are still keen to go public rather than remain private corporations.
With IPOs on the rise as a whole, it's tech IPOs that have been some of the fastest growing as earlier this year it was reported that there had been twice as many tech companies listing for an initial public offering compared to the previous year, with Dropbox, Spotify and DocuSign just some of the big name companies who have gone public in 2018 so far as well as SurveyMonkey and Sonos also featuring in some of the biggest tech IPOs of the year so far.
Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
As the number of companies going public has increased overall, and tech company IPOs in particular doubling when compared to year on year figures, it seems that companies are deciding to take the leap from private to public more than ever before. But how long since founding has it taken tech companies to reach IPO?
RS Components has recently created an infographic which looks at the length of time it has taken some of the world's biggest tech giants to reach the IPO milestone. Using the companies listed in the Fortune 500, RS Components has measured the number of years between founding date to floated date to see how many years these tech companies waited before going public.
With some of the biggest names in tech taking as little as two years all the way up to 112 years to go public. This is how long some of the world's top names in tech took to go public.
NCR, a tech company founded in 1884, who invented the electronic cash register and is the leading provider for point of sale systems for retail and hospitality businesses took the longest to reach IPO, waiting 112 years before going public in 1996.
The company who took the least time to reach IPO was Booking Holdings, the parent group who count Booking.com, Open Table and Kayak among their brands waited just two years since founding in 1997 to reach IPO in 1999 - 110 years less than NCR!
The most recent tech IPO, of tech companies included on the Fortune 500 list, was Activision Blizzard who went public in 2017, with Facebook following behind in 2012 to become the second most recent waiting just 8 years to go public since being founded by Mark Zuckerberg in 2004.
On average tech companies take 24 years to reach IPO according to RS Components findings, but with NCR taking 112 years to reach the IPO milestone it seems that some companies are happy to wait for over a century before going public. How long will it take your company to go public?
Author: Jacob WolinskyJacob Wolinsky is the founder of ValueWalk.com, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Prior to ValueWalk, Jacob was VP of Business Development at SumZero. Prior to SumZero, Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Jacob lives with his wife and three kids in Passaic NJ. - Email: jacob(at)valuewalk.com - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. I also own 2.5 grams of Gold


text:
Jeff Bridges brings back 'Big Lebowski' to honor John Goodman
Image: Gramercy Pictures
By Adario Strange 2017-03-11 19:18:49 UTC
It's been almost 20 years since The Big Lebowski graced us with its slacker bible in film form, but even now, The Dude still abides, as Jeff Bridges proved on Friday.
Yesterday, Bridges broke out his iconic character (Jeffrey "The Dude" Lebowski) to honor John Goodman, his co-star from the film, as Goodman received a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.
SEE ALSO: Steve Buscemi is clearly a fan of this 'Big Lebowski' sign at the Women's March
Before making a speech introducing his friend, Bridges first donned the well known Lebowski sweater, thus transforming into his Dude persona. The reveal of the sweater surprised even Goodman, who said, through a childlike grin, "I'm not worthy."
Bridges then mimicked Goodman's famous burial speech from the film, in perfect Dude accent and slouch posture:
"In your wisdom lord, you have lived through John as you have through so many other bright, flowering, young actors before him," says Bridges, to laughs from the crowd. "I'm talking about men like Clark Gable, Gabby Hayes, Roy Rogers — to keep in the whole Western thing — Groucho Marx, Jimmy Cagney. We could go on and on, but you get the idea."
Aside from Goodman's well-deserved Hollywood honor, the rare appearance of The Dude (so good that only a White Russian cocktail in hand would have made it better) will give some hope that the character will make a cameo appearance in Going Places (starring John Turturro as Jesus Quintana), The Big Lebowski spin-off coming later this year.
WATCH: The Dude abides in this 8-bit retelling of 'The Big Lebowski'
Topics: Entertainment, Hollywood, Hollywood Walk of Fame, jeff bridges, john goodman, the big lebowski


Given that the United States once set global precedents for environmental protection and physical planning, it is hard to grasp just how far we have fallen. The U.S. Supreme Court, though, has now made the reversal clear. In a "A Legal Blow to Sustainable Development," the New York Times details the impact of the latest blockbuster court decision on planning.
In simple terms, the Koontz vs St. Johns Water Management District case involved a development permit decision. The developer, Koontz, applied for a permit to build a small shopping center, and his plan included filling three acres of wetlands. In a common negotiation practice, the water management district suggested changes to Koontz's plan that would make it more likely that his permit would be approved. Koontz could either reduce the size of his development, or he could pay a fee for wetland restoration elsewhere and proceed to fill the wetlands on his own property. Koontz refused to negotiate, and the water management district denied his permit. Koontz sued, and the case went all the way up to the Florida Supreme Court which sided with the water management district. Koontz has since died, but his case went on from Florida to the U.S. Supreme Court. Yesterday, the justices delivered a 5/4 decision to reverse the Florida Supreme Court's decision. In this blockbuster decision, Koontz has achieved a measure of immortality.
While that may sound obscure, the decision in Koontz v. St. Johns River Water Management District will result in long-lasting harm to America's communities. That's because the ruling creates a perverse incentive for municipal governments to reject applications from developers rather than attempt to negotiate project designs that might advance both public and private goals — and it makes it hard for communities to get property owners to pay to mitigate any environmental damage they may cause.
As Justice Kagan correctly explains in her dissent, the decision will very likely encourage local government officials to avoid any discussion with developers related to permit conditions that, in the end, might have let both sides find common ground on building projects that are good for the community and environmentally sound. Rather than risk a lawsuit through an attempt at compromise, many municipalities will simply reject development applications outright — or, worse, accept development plans they shouldn't.
The Adventures of Tom Sawyer was the family read-aloud book this past spring. I found myself especially drawn to Twain's description of the Mississippi River, a reminder of how much of an impact the Big Muddy had on my own childhood as I grew up along its banks. Naturally, I watched the new reports in May as my hometown flooded, and I wondered if the many miles of levees could possibly hold. The system put in place by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers largely did its job, but the river still exacted a price, eating away at the banks and attempting to carve new channels (i.e., doing what rivers do in flood events). A report in the Memphis Commercial Appeal details the costs of "bank failures" from the big flood. With federal budget cutting fever rampant in D.C., you have to wonder about how many federal dollars will be directed toward the repairs.
Corps officials estimate it will cost $222.5 million to undo the damage inflicted by the river as it tried to create new channels during the flood. If the repairs aren't completed before the next big flood, the Mississippi could complete the course changes it began this year.
That $222.5 million sum is in addition to the projected $327.7 million it will take to fix flood-damaged levees, the $157.4 million worth of flood-related dredging needed and the estimated $70.6 million required to restore spillways and similar structures.
To pay for those and other damages, the U.S. House approved $1 billion in emergency appropriations for the corps in the energy and water bill. But the Senate has yet to approve any funds.
One of the bank failures, .5 mi wide and 1 mi deep into Presidents Island near Memphis. Photo by International Port of Memphis.
When I was a graduate student, one of my favorite landscape planning books was Design For Human Ecosystems by John T. Lyle, and it is still a favorite. It was originally published in 1985, with a paperback edition published in 1999. A major premise of the book, and, indeed, of all landscape planning, is that careful analysis of landscape resources leads to land use planning and design solutions that achieve a balance between different, and often, competing interests. If that could just be the case more often than not! A reminder of how intractable some issues can be comes from the world of renewable energy.
We have heard for some time that wind turbines kill birds, and we keep hoping that a solution may be found to this problem, like the development of slower moving turbines. A report today from Umair Irfan of ClimateWire (subscription service from E&E Publishing) tells us that the problem has not been solved. While house cats and windows kill many urban bird species, turbines pose a unique threat to many more species of birds, including whooping cranes and raptors. Less reported, though, is the significant threat to bats. With white nose syndrome devastating the hybernating bat species, it is especially distressing to hear that wind turbines are killing migratory bat species.
"Many more bats than birds are killed by wind turbines, and they are killed in two ways: simply by being hit by the blades, and some are killed by pressure changes due to the sweep of the blades without even being hit," said John Whitaker Jr., a professor of biology and director of the Center for North American Bat Research and Conservation at Indiana State University, in an email.
Because bats use sound to navigate and can detect moving objects, like insects, exceptionally well, many are better able than birds to avoid striking the blades. However, they can't detect the invisible swath of low pressure left behind turning blades. Bats then fly into this area, and their internal airways rapidly expand, causing internal bleeding.
This phenomenon, known as barotrauma, accounts for more than half of all turbine-related fatalities in bats, according to a 2008 paper in the journal Current Biology.
Simply mapping landscape resources and locating the best areas for wind energy generation and the most significant migration areas, ala Lyle, McHarg, and others, will not lead to a solution to this problem. From a land use planning perspective, it is an issue of conflicting values. As wind energy proliferates around the globe, we have to hope that a technological solution can be found soon. That would seem to be the shortest path to resolving the dilemma.
Mora, C. and P.F. Sale. 2011. Ongoing global biodiversity loss and the need to move beyond protected areas: A review of the technical and practical shortcomings of protected areas on land and sea. Marine Ecology Progress Series 434: 251-266.
During the ice age, many plant species shifted southward, and at glacial maximum around 18,000 years ago, boreal forest reached Arkansas, with spruce and tamarack in the Tunica Hills along the cold, foggy Mississippi valley. Deciduous forests of oak and hickory extended to the Gulf of Mexico. As the glaciers retreated and the climate warmed, pines and other species from refugia in Florida, along the lower Mississippi River, and southern Texas and northern Mexico, spread across the southeast.
As we contemplate the opposite movement of species, the northward shift, we must begin to identify and protect places of refugium. Major land conservation organizations like The Nature Conservancy are already engaged in this sort of planning exercise as they account for climate change impacts on the lands they manage. Federal land management agencies are also considering ways to provide refuge to species, in part because of a 2009 executive order by President Obama that mandated integration of climate adaptation planning into all agency planning activities. These are positive steps, but, like all conservation activities, they need to extend beyond public lands and private conservation lands to have the greatest effect. This is where planners and designers can make a contribution – considering the potential for refugia on privately held land in communities across the country. It's the next step in environmentally sensitive areas planning and an opportunity to "mainstream" climate adaptation into ongoing community planning and design.
In its simplest form, "hot-surviving" refugia are found on the northern slopes of hills and mountains, at higher elevations, in mountain coves and hollows (known as "hollers" in another place I've called home), and in deep canyon recesses. The good news? These places are very easy to identify in the landscape! The next steps, a bit more difficult. In another post, I will discuss a related topic, the controversial idea of assisted migration.
What do you do when historical data is no longer useful for predicting the future? Climate change is making the already-difficult proposition of predicting environmental phenomena even harder. Consider societal efforts to manage the flood system. The concept of a 100-year flood is based on the idea that history is useful indicator of future states and "most likely" scenarios. A 2010 paper by Gersonius et al.* tackles the question of how we might begin to plan for shifts in flooding regimes by using adaptive management strategies. This paper is at the leading edge of climate adaptation design research, and there is a need for much more.
Gersonius et al. contrast the traditional approach with an adaptive approach. They say that traditional approaches are based on the assumption "that it is possible to define a singular optimum adaptation strategy according to the 'most likely' or average future projection" (p.15). Big investments of public dollars are common with the traditional approach – essentially a large bet on the promise of a singular optimum strategy (one-off interventions). The paper's authors argue for an adaptively resilient approach instead, an approach better suited to the uncertainties of climate change.
Rather than taking a traditional approach, responsible climate adaptation requires an alternative approach that attempts to assess and manage the resiliency of the flooding system for long-term future change. The aim of this approach is to keep the system within a configuration of states that give at least acceptable functioning despite the occurrence of possible changes (Walker et al. 2002**). This means that the approach acknowledges that projections are 'always wrong' and that it is necessary to plan for a range of possible future conditions.
The authors' modeling results suggest that adaptation decisions that include LEARNING about future climate parameters could reduce overall costs between 5 and 17% over a single high risk traditional, or "robust," intervention. The figure below illustrates the concept.
*Gersonius et al. 2010. Managing the flooding system's resiliency to climate change. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers ES1: 15-22.
** Walker et al. 2002. Resilience management in social-ecological systems: A working hypothesis for a participatory approach. Conservation Ecology 6:14.
A good graphic synopsis of climate change effects in the U.S. is found in an article by Wilbanks and Kates (2010) in the Annals of the Association of American Geographers (Vol. 100, No. 4: 719-728). The figure depicts the main impacts, but details are lost at this scale. What does the future hold for your neck of the woods?