text:
\section{INTRODUCTION}

Agents may try to manipulate
an election by mis-reporting their preferences in
order to get a better result for themselves.
The Gibbard Satterthwaite theorem proves that, under some
simple assumptions, there will always exist
situations where such manipulation is possible \cite{gs1,gs2}.
In an influential paper \cite{bartholditoveytrick},
Bartholdi, Tovey and Trick
proposed an appealing escape:
perhaps it is computationally so difficult to find a successful
manipulation that agents have little
option but to report their true preferences?
To illustrate this idea,
they demonstrated that the second order Copeland rule
is NP-hard to manipulate.
Shortly after, Bartholdi and Orlin proved
that the more well known Single Transferable Voting
(STV) rule is NP-hard to manipulate \cite{stvhard}.
A whole subfield of social choice
has since grown from this proposal,
proving that various voting rules are NP-hard
to manipulate under different assumptions.

Our focus here is on the manipulability of the STV rule.
Bartholdi and Orlin argued that
STV is one of the most promising voting
rules to consider in this respect:
\begin{quote}
``STV is apparently
unique among voting schemes in actual use today
in that it is computationally
resistant to manipulation.''
(page 341 of \cite{stvhard}).
\end{quote}
Whilst there exist other voting rules which are NP-hard to manipulate,
computational complexity is either restricted to
somewhat obscure voting rules like second order
Copeland or to more well known voting rules but with
the rather artificial restriction that there are large
weights on the votes. STV is the only commonly used voting rule
that is NP-hard to manipulate without weights.
STV also appears more difficult to
manipulate than many other rules. For example,
Chamberlain studied \cite{cbs85} four different measures of the manipulability
of a voting rule: the probability
that manipulation is possible,
the number of candidates who can
be made to win, the coalition
size necessary to manipulate, and
the margin-of-error which still
results in a successful manipulation.
Compared to other commonly
used rules like plurality and Borda,
his results showed that
STV was the most difficult to manipulate
by a substantial margin. He concluded that:
\begin{quote}
``[this] superior performance \ldots combined
with the rather complex
and implausible nature of the strategies to manipulate
it, suggest that it [the STV rule] may be quite
resitant to manipulation'' (page 203 of \cite{cbs85}).
\end{quote}

Unfortunately, the NP-hardness of manipulating
STV is only a worst-case result and may not reflect
the difficulty of manipulation in practice. Indeed, a number of
recent theoretical results
suggest that manipulation can often be computationally
easy on average \cite{csaaai2006,prjair07,xcec08,fknfocs09,xcec08b}.
Such theoretical results typically provide approximation methods so do
not say what happens with the complete methods
studied here (where worst case behaviour is exponential).
Most recently, Walsh has suggested that
empirical studies might provide insights
into the computational complexity of manipulation
that can complement such theoretical
results \cite{wijcai09}.
However, Walsh's empirical study
was
limited to the simple veto rule, weighted votes
and elections with only three candidates. In this paper, we relax
these assumptions and
consider the more complex multi-round STV rule,
unweighted votes,
and large numbers of
candidates.

\section{MANIPULATING STV}

Single Transferable Voting
(STV) proceeds in a number of rounds.
We consider the case of electing a single winner.
Each agent totally ranks the candidates.
Unless one candidate has a majority of
first place votes, we eliminate the candidate
with the least number of first place votes.
Any ballots placing the eliminated candidate in first
place are re-assigned to the second place candidate.
We then repeat until one candidate has a majority.
STV is used in a wide variety of elections
including for the Irish presidency, the
Australian House of Representatives, the Academy awards,
and many organizations including the
American Political Science Association,
the International Olympic Committee,
and the British Labour Party.

\begin{figure*}[tbh]

\begin{center}
\begin{algorithm}{Manipulate}{c,R,(s_1,\ldots,s_m),f}
\begin{IF}{|R|=1 \mbox{\it \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ ; Is there one candidate left?}}
   \RETURN (R=\{c\}) \mbox{\it \ \  \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \  \ \ ; Is it the chosen candidate?}
\end{IF} \\
\begin{IF}{f=0 \mbox{\it  \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \  \ ; Is the top of the manipulator's vote currently free?}} \\
d \= arg \ min_{j \in R} (s_j)
\mbox{\it \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ ; Who will currently be eliminated?} \\
s_d \= s_d + w
\mbox{\it \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \  \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \  \ \ ; Suppose the manipulator votes for them} \\
e \= arg \ min_{j \in R} (s_j) \\
\begin{IF}{d = e \mbox{\it \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ ; Does this not change the result?}}
\RETURN \\ (c \neq d) \ and \
  \CALL{Manipulate}(c,R-\{d\},Transfer((s_1,\ldots,s_m),d,R),0)
\ELSE
   \RETURN  \\
  ((c \neq d) \ and \ \CALL{Manipulate}(c,R-\{d\},Transfer((s_1,\ldots,s_m),d,R),0)) \ or \\
  ((c \neq e) \ and \ \CALL{Manipulate}(c,R-\{e\},Transfer((s_1,\ldots,s_m),e,R),d))
\end{IF}
\ELSE
\mbox{\it  \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \  \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \  \ \ \ \ \ ; The top of the manipulator's vote is fixed} \\
d \= arg \ min_{j \in R} (s_j)
\mbox{\it \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ ; Who will be eliminated?} \\
\begin{IF}{c = d \mbox{\it \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ ; Is this the chosen candidate?}} {\RETURN false}
\end{IF} \\
\begin{IF}{d = f \mbox{\it \ \ \ \  \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ ; Is the manipulator free again to change the result?}}
   \RETURN
  \CALL{Manipulate}(c,R-\{d\},Transfer((s_1,\ldots,s_m),d,R),0)
\ELSE
   \RETURN
  \CALL{Manipulate}(c,R-\{d\},Transfer((s_1,\ldots,s_m),d,R),f)
\end{IF}
\end{IF}
\end{algorithm}
\end{center}

\caption{Our improved algorithm to compute
if an agent can manipulate a STV election. }
\vspace{-2em}

\scriptsize We
use integers from $1$ to $m$ for
the candidates,
integers from $1$ to $n$ for
the agents (with $n$ being the manipulator),
$c$ for the candidate who the manipulator wants to win,
$R$ for the set of un-eliminated
candidates, $s_j$ for the weight
of agents ranking candidate $j$ first
amongst $R$, $w$ for the weight of
the manipulator, and $f$ for the candidate most highly
ranked by the manipulator amongst $R$
(or $0$ if there is currently no constraint
on who is most highly ranked).
The function $Transfer$
computes the a vector of the new weights
of agents ranking candidate $j$ first
amongst $R$ after a given candidate
is eliminated.
The algorithm is initially called with
$R$ set to every candidate, and
$f$ to $0$.  }
\label{fig-alg}
\end{figure*}

STV is NP-hard to manipulate
by a single agent if the number of candidates is
unbounded and votes are unweighted
\cite{stvhard}, or by a coalition of agents
if there are 3 or more candidates and
votes are weighted
\cite{csljacm07}.
Coleman and Teague
give an enumerative method
for a coalition of $k$ unweighted
agents to compute a
manipulation of the
STV rule which runs
in $O(m!(n+mk))$ time
where $n$ is the number of agents voting and $m$ is
the number of candidates \cite{ctcats2007}.
For a single manipulator,
Conitzer, Sandholm and Lang give an
$O(n 1.62^m)$ time algorithm
(called CSL from now on)
to compute the set of candidates that
can win a STV election
\cite{csljacm07}.

In Figure \ref{fig-alg}, we give a new
algorithm for computing a manipulation
of the STV rule which
improves upon CSL in several directions
First, our algorithm ignores
elections in which the chosen candidate is eliminated.
Second, our algorithm terminates search as soon as
a manipulation is found in which the chosen
candidate wins. Third, our algorithm does not explore the
left branch of the search tree when the
right branch gives a successful manipulation.

\begin{table}
\begin{center}
  \begin{tabular}{| r || r | r | r | r | }
  \hline
    & \multicolumn{2}{|c|}{CSL algorithm} &
\multicolumn{2}{|c|}{Improved algorithm} \\
$n$ & nodes & time/s & nodes & time/s  \\ \hline
2 & 1.46 & {\bf 0.00} & {\bf 1.24} & {\bf 0.00} \\
4 & 3.28 & {\bf 0.00} & {\bf 1.59} & {\bf 0.00} \\
8 & 11.80 & {\bf 0.00} & {\bf 3.70} & {\bf 0.00} \\
16 & 59.05 & 0.03 & {\bf 12.62} & {\bf 0.01} \\
32 & 570.11 & 0.63 & {\bf 55.20} & {\bf 0.09} \\
64 & 14,676.17 & 33.22 & {\bf 963.39} & {\bf 3.00} \\
128 & 8,429,800.00 & 6,538.13 & {\bf 159,221.10} & {\bf 176.68} \\ \hline
  \end{tabular}
\end{center}
\caption{Comparison between the CSL algorithm
and our improved algorithm to compute
a manipulation of a STV election.
}
\label{table-alg}
\end{table}

To show the benefits of these improvements,
we ran an experiment in which $n$ agents
vote uniformly at random over $n$ possible candidates.
The experiment was run
in CLISP 2.42 on a 3.2 GHz Pentium 4 with 3GB of memory
running Ubuntu 8.04.3.
Table \ref{table-alg}.
gives
the mean nodes explored and runtime needed to compute a
manipulation or prove none exists. Median and other
percentiles display similar behaviour.
We see that our new method can be more than an order
of magnitude faster than CSL.
In addition, as problems
get larger, the improvement increases.
At $n=32$, our
method is nearly 10 times faster than CSL. This increases to
roughly 40 times
faster at $n=128$. These improvements reduce
the time to find a manipulation on the largest
problems from several hours to a couple of minutes.

\section{UNIFORM VOTES}

We start with one of the simplest possible
scenarios: elections in which each vote is equally
likely. We have one agent trying to manipulate an
election of $m$ candidates where $n$ other
agents vote. Votes are drawn uniformly
at random from all $m!$ possible votes.
This is the Impartial Culture (IC) model.

\subsection{VARYING THE AGENTS}

In Figures \ref{fig-prob-varn} and \ref{fig-nodes-varn},
we plot the probability that a manipulator can
make a random agent win, and the cost to compute
if this is possible when we fix the number of
candidates but vary the number of agents
in the election.
In this and subsequent experiments,
we tested 1000 problems at each point.
Unless otherwise indicated,
the number of candidates and
of agents are varied in powers of 2 from
1 to 128.

\begin{figure}[htb]
\vspace{-2.5in}
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[scale=0.4]{randwww1nnn1-256mmm4-32prob-col.pdf}
\end{center}
\vspace{-0.5in}
\caption{Manipulability of random uniform votes.
The number of candidates is fixed and we vary the number of
agents.
}
\label{fig-prob-varn}
\end{figure}

The ability of an agent
to manipulate the election decreases as the
number of agents increases.
Only if there are few votes and
few candidates is there a significant chance
that the manipulator will be able to change
the result.
Unlike
domains
like satisfiability \cite{mitchell-hard-easy,SAT-phase},
constraint satisfaction \cite{gmpwcp95,random},
number partitioning \cite{rnp,gw-ci98} and
the traveling salesperson problem \cite{GentIP:tsppt},
the probability curve does not appear to sharpen to
a step function around a fixed point. The probability
curve resembles the smooth phase transitions
seen in polynomial problems
like 2-coloring \cite{achlioptasphd} and 1-in-2 satisfiability
\cite{waaai2002}.
Note that as elsewhere, we assume that ties
are broken in favour of the manipulator.
For this reason, the probability that an election
is manipulable is greater than $\frac{1}{m}$.

\begin{figure}[htb]
\vspace{-2.5in}
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[scale=0.4]{randwww1nnn1-256mmm4-32nodes-col.pdf}
\end{center}
\vspace{-0.5in}
\caption{Search to compute if an agent can manipulate an election
with random uniform votes.
The number of candidates is fixed and we vary the number of
agents.
}
\label{fig-nodes-varn}
\end{figure}

Finding a manipulation or proving none
is possible is easy unless we have both a
a large number of agents and a large number
of candidates. However, in this situation,
the chance that the manipulator can
change the result is very small.

\subsection{VARYING THE CANDIDATES}

In Figures
\ref{fig-nodes-varm},
we plot the search to compute if the manipulator can
make a random agent win when we
fix the number of agents but vary the number of candidates.
The probability curve that the manipulator can make
a random agent win resembles Figure \ref{fig-prob-varn}.

\myOmit{
\begin{figure}[htb]
\vspace{-2.5in}
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[scale=0.4]{randwww1nnn8-64mmm1-256prob-col.pdf}
\end{center}
\vspace{-0.5in}
\caption{Manipulability of
random uniform voting.
The number of agents
is fixed and we vary the number of
candidates.
}
\label{fig-prob-varm}
\end{figure}
}

\begin{figure}[htb]
\vspace{-2.5in}
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[scale=0.4]{randwww1nnn8-64mmm1-256nodes-col.pdf}
\end{center}
\vspace{-0.5in}
\caption{Search to compute if an agent can manipulate an election
with random uniform voting.
The number of agents
is fixed and we vary the number of
candidates.
}
\label{fig-nodes-varm}
\end{figure}

Whilst the cost of computing a manipulation
increases exponential with the number
of candidates $m$, the observed scaling is much better than
the $1.62^m$.
We can easily compute manipulations
for up to 128 candidates.
Note that $1.62^m$ is over $10^{26}$ for $m=128$. Thus, we
appear to be far from the worst case.
We fitted the observed data to the model $ab^m$ and found
a good fit with $b=1.008$ and a coefficient of determination, $R^2=0.95$.

\section{URN MODEL}

In many real life situations, votes are not completely uniform
and uncorrelated with each other. What happens if
we introduce correlation between votes? Here we consider
random votes
drawn from the Polya Eggenberger urn model \cite{polya-urn}.
We also observed very similar results when votes
are drawn at random which are single peaked or single troughed.
In the urn model,
we have an urn containing all $m!$ possible votes.
We draw votes out of the urn at random, and
put them back into the urn with $a$
additional votes of the same type (where
$a$ is a parameter).
As $a$ increases, there is
increasing correlation between the votes.
This generalizes both the Impartial Culture
model ($a=0$) and the Impartial Anonymous Culture ($a=1$) model.
To give a parameter independent of problem
size, we consider $b=\frac{a}{m!}$.
For instance, with $b=1$, there is a 50\% chance
that the second vote is the same as the first.

\begin{figure}[htb]
\vspace{-2.5in}
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[scale=0.4]{urnbbb1www1nnn8-64mmm1-256prob-col.pdf}
\end{center}
\vspace{-0.5in}
\caption{Manipulability of
correlated votes.
The number of agents
is fixed and we vary the number of
candidates.
The $n$ fixed votes are drawn from the Polya Eggenberger urn  model
with $b=1$.
}

\label{fig-urn-prob-varm}
\end{figure}
\begin{figure}[htb]
\vspace{-2.5in}
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[scale=0.4]{urnbbb1www1nnn8-64mmm1-256nodes-col.pdf}
\end{center}
\vspace{-0.5in}
\caption{Search to compute if an agent can manipulate an election
with correlated votes.
The number of agents
is fixed and we vary the number of
candidates.
The $n$ fixed votes are drawn using the Polya Eggenberger urn  model
with $b=1$.
The curves for different $n$ fit closely on top of each other.
}
\label{fig-urn-nodes-varm}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}[htb]
\vspace{-2.5in}
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[scale=0.4]{urnbbb1www1nnn1-256mmm4-64nodes-col.pdf}
\end{center}
\vspace{-0.5in}
\caption{Search to compute if an agent can manipulate an election
with correlated votes.
The number of candidates is fixed and we vary the number of
agents.
The $n$ fixed votes are drawn using the Polya Eggenberger urn  model
with $b=1$.
}
\label{fig-urn-nodes-varn}
\end{figure}

In Figures \ref{fig-urn-prob-varm} and \ref{fig-urn-nodes-varm},
we plot the probability that a manipulator can
make a random agent win, and the cost to compute
if this is possible as we vary the number of candidates
in an election where votes are
drawn from the Polya Eggenberger urn model.
The search cost to compute a manipulation
increases exponential with the number
of candidates $m$. However, we can
easily compute manipulations
for up to 128 candidates and agents.
We fitted the observed data to the model $ab^m$ and found
a good fit with $b=1.001$ and
a coefficient of determination, $R^2=0.99$.

In Figure \ref{fig-urn-nodes-varn},
we plot the cost to compute a manipulation
when we fix the number of candidates
but vary the number of agents.
As in previous experiments, finding a manipulation or proving none
exists is easy even if we have many
agents and candidates.
We also saw very similar results
when we generated single peaked votes
using an urn model.

\section{COALITION MANIPULATION}

Our algorithm for computing manipulation by a single agent can also
be used to compute if a coalition can manipulate
an election when the members of coalition vote
in unison. This ignores more
complex manipulations where the members of the coalition
need to vote in different
ways. Insisting that the members of the coalition vote in unison
might be reasonable
if we wish manipulation to have both a low computational
and communication cost.
In Figures \ref{fig-prob-varw} and \ref{fig-nodes-varw},
we plot the probability that a coalition voting in unison can
make a random agent win, and the cost to compute
if this is possible as we vary the size of the coalition.
Theoretical results in \cite{xcec08} and elsewhere suggest that
the critical size of a coalition that can just manipulate
an election grows as $\sqrt{n}$. We therefore normalize
the coalition size by $\sqrt{n}$.

\begin{figure}[htb]
\vspace{-2.5in}
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[scale=0.4]{randwww1-64nnn8-64mmm8-64prob-col.pdf}
\end{center}
\vspace{-0.5in}
\caption{Manipulability of an election
as we vary the size of the manipulating coalition.
The number of candidates is the same
as the number of non-manipulating agents.
}
\label{fig-prob-varw}
\end{figure}

The ability of the coalition
to manipulate the election increases as the
size of the coalition increases.
When the coalition is about $\sqrt{n}$ in size,
the probability that the coalition can manipulate
the election so that a candidate chosen at random wins
is around $\frac{1}{2}$.
The cost to compute a manipulation (or prove
that none exists) decreases as we increase the size of
the coalition. It is easier for a larger coalition
to manipulate an election than
a smaller one.

\begin{figure}[htb]
\vspace{-2.5in}
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[scale=0.4]{randwww1-64nnn8-64mmm8-64nodes-col.pdf}
\end{center}
\vspace{-0.5in}
\caption{Search to compute if a coalition can manipulate an election
as we vary coalition size.
}
\label{fig-nodes-varw}
\end{figure}

These experiments again suggest
different behaviour occurs here
than in other combinatorial problems like
propositional satisfiability and graph colouring
\cite{cheeseman-hard,waaai98,wijcai99,wijcai2001}.
For instance, we do not see a rapid transition
that sharpens around a fixed point
as in 3-satisfiability \cite{mitchell-hard-easy}.
When we vary the
coalition size, we see a transition in the probability
of being able to manipulate the result around
a coalition size $k=\sqrt{n}$. However, this transition
appears smooth and does not seem to sharpen
towards a step function as $n$ increases.
In addition, hard instances do not
occur around $k=\sqrt{n}$. Indeed, the hardest
instances are when the coalition is smaller
than this and has only a small chance of being able to manipulate
the result.

\section{SAMPLING REAL ELECTIONS}

Elections met in practice may differ
from those sampled so far. There might, for instance,
be some votes which are never cast.
On the other hand, with the models studied so far every possible
random/single peaked
vote has a non-zero probability of being seen.
We therefore sampled some real voting
records \cite{isai95,ghpwaaai99}.

\myOmit{
\begin{figure}[htb]
\vspace{-2.5in}
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[scale=0.4]{nasawww1nnn4-128mmm1-128prob-col.pdf}
\end{center}
\vspace{-0.5in}
\caption{Manipulability of
votes sampled from the NASA experiment.
The number of agents
is fixed and we vary the number of
candidates.
}
\label{fig-nasa-prob-varm}
\end{figure}
}

\begin{figure}[htb]
\vspace{-2.5in}
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[scale=0.4]{nasawww1nnn4-128mmm1-128nodes-col.pdf}
\end{center}
\vspace{-0.5in}
\caption{Search to compute if an agent can manipulate an election
with votes sampled from the NASA experiment.
The number of agents
is fixed and we vary the number of
candidates.
}
\label{fig-nasa-nodes-varm}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}[htb]
\vspace{-2.5in}
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[scale=0.4]{nasawww1nnn1-128mmm4-256nodes-col.pdf}
\end{center}
\vspace{-0.5in}
\caption{Search to compute if an agent can manipulate an election
with votes sampled from the NASA experiment.
The number of candidates is fixed and we vary the number of
agents.
}
\label{fig-nasa-nodes-varn}
\end{figure}

Our first experiment uses the votes cast by 10 teams
of scientists to select one of 32 different
trajectories for NASA's Mariner
spacecraft \cite{mariner}. Each team ranked the different
trajectories based on their scientific value.
We sampled these votes.
For elections with 10 or fewer agents voting,
we simply took a random subset of the 10 votes.
For elections with more than 10 agents voting,
we simply sampled from the 10 votes with uniform
frequency. For elections with 32 or
fewer candidates, we simply took a random subset of
the 32 candidates. Finally for elections with more than 32
candidates, we duplicated each candidate and assigned
them the same ranking. Since STV works on total
orders, we then forced each agent to break any ties
randomly.

In Figures
\ref{fig-nasa-nodes-varm} to \ref{fig-nasa-nodes-varn},
we plot
the cost to compute
if a manipulator can make a random agent win
as we vary the number of candidates
and agents.
Votes are sampled from the NASA experiment as explained
earlier.
The probability that the manipulator can manipulate
the election resembles the probability curve
for uniform random votes.
The search needed to compute a manipulation
again increases exponential with the number
of candidates $m$. However,
the observed scaling is much better than
$1.62^m$. We can
easily compute manipulations
for up to 128 candidates and agents.

\myOmit{
\begin{figure}[htb]
\vspace{-2.5in}
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[scale=0.4]{deptwww1nnn4-64mmm3-192nodes-col.pdf}
\end{center}
\vspace{-0.5in}
\caption{Search to compute if an agent can manipulate an election
with votes sampled from a faculty hiring committee.}
{The number of agents voting is fixed and we vary the number of
candidates.
The y-axis measures the mean
number of search nodes explored to compute
a manipulation or prove that none exists. Median
and other percentiles are similar.}
\label{fig-dept-nodes-varm}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}[htb]
\vspace{-2.5in}
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[scale=0.4]{deptwww1nnn1-256mmm3-192nodes-col.pdf}
\end{center}
\vspace{-0.5in}
\caption{Search to compute if an agent can manipulate an election
with votes sampled from a faculty hiring committee.}
{The number of candidates is fixed and we vary the number of
agents voting.
The y-axis measures the mean
number of search nodes explored to compute
a manipulation or prove that none exists. Median
and other percentiles are similar.}
\label{fig-dept-nodes-varn}
\end{figure} }

In our second experiment, we used
votes from a faculty hiring committee at the University
of California at Irvine \cite{dpc83}.
We sampled from this data set
in the same ways as from the NASA dataset
and observed very similar results.
It was easy to find a manipulation
or prove that none exists.
The observed scaling was again much better than
$1.62^m$.

\section{RELATED WORK}

As indicated, there have been several theoretical
results recently that suggest elections are
easy to manipulate in practice despite
NP-hardness results.
For example, Procaccia and Rosenschein proved that for most
scoring rules and a wide variety of
distributions over votes,
when the size of the coalition is $o(\sqrt{n})$, the probability
that they can change the result
tends to 0, and when it is $\omega(\sqrt{n})$, the probability
that they can manipulate the result
tends to 1 \cite{praamas2007}.
They also gave a simple
greedy procedure that will find a manipulation
of a scoring rule in polynomial
time with a probability of failure that is
an inverse polynomial in $n$
\cite{prjair07}.

As a second example, Xia and Conitzer have shown that for a large class
of voting rules including STV, as the number of agents grows, either
the probability that a coalition
can manipulate the result is very small (as the
coalition is too small), or the
probability that they can easily manipulate the result
to make any alternative
win is very large \cite{xcec08}.
They left open only a small interval in the size
for the coalition for which the coalition is
large enough to manipulate but
not obviously large enough to manipulate the
result easily.

Friedgut, Kalai and Nisan proved that
if the voting rule is neutral and
far from dictatorial and there
are 3 candidates then there exists
an agent for whom a random manipulation
succeeds with probability $\Omega(\frac{1}{n})$
\cite{fknfocs09}.
Starting from different assumptions, Xia and Conitzer showed that
a random
manipulation would succeed with probability
$\Omega(\frac{1}{n})$ for 3 or more
candidates for STV, for 4 or more candidates for any scoring
rule and for 5 or more candidates for Copeland \cite{xcec08b}.

Walsh empirically studied
manipulation of the veto rule by
a coalition of agents whose votes
were weighted \cite{wijcai09}.
He showed that there was a smooth transition in the probability
that a coalition can
elect a desired candidate as the size of
the manipulating coalition increases.
He also showed that it was easy
to find manipulations of the veto rule
or prove that none exist
for many independent and identically distributed votes
even when the
coalition was critical in size.
He was able to identify a situation
in which manipulation was computationally hard.
This is when votes are highly correlated
and the election is ``hung''.
However, even a single uncorrelated agent was enough to
make manipulation easy again.

Coleman and Teague proposed
algorithms to compute a manipulation for
the STV rule \cite{ctcats2007}.
They also conducted an empirical study
which demonstrates that only relatively small
coalitions are needed to change the elimination
order of the STV rule. They observed that most uniform
and random elections
are not trivially manipulable using a simple greedy
heuristic. On the other hand, our results suggest
that, for manipulation by a single agent, a limited amount of
backtracking is needed to find
a manipulation or prove that none exists.

\section{CONCLUSIONS}

We have studied empirically
whether computational
complexity is a barrier to the manipulation
for the STV rule.
We have looked at a number of different
distributions of votes including
uniform random votes,
correlated votes drawn from an
urn model, and votes sampled from some
real world elections.
We have looked at manipulation
by both a single agent, and a coalition
of agents who vote in unison.
Almost every one of the millions of
elections in our
experiments was easy to manipulate or to prove
could not be manipulated.
These results increase the concerns that
computational complexity is indeed a barrier
to manipulation in practice.

\bibliographystyle{ecai2010}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaArXiv


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text:
Guillermo Cabrera Infante (Gibara, Cuba, 22 de abril de 1929 - Londres, 21 de febrero de 2005) fue un escritor y guionista cubano, que después de exiliarse de su país obtuvo la ciudadanía británica. Obtuvo el Premio Cervantes 1997.

Biografía

Nació el 22 de abril de 1929 en Gibara (en ese entonces provincia de Oriente, ahora Holguín). Era el hijo mayor del periodista Guillermo Cabrera y de Zoila Infante, ambos militantes comunistas y fundadores de la organización del partido en Gibara, razón por la cual fueron arrestados con Cabrera Infante, quien entonces, a los siete años de edad, pasaría varios meses en prisión. De origen canario (sus antepasados eran de La Palma), en 1941 se trasladó con su familia a La Habana.

A los 19 años, escribió, producto de una apuesta, una parodia de El señor Presidente de Miguel Ángel Asturias, que llevó a Bohemia. Para su asombro, la revista la publicó (1948) y, según Cabrera Infante, "lo que ocurrió entonces, cambió mi vida definitivamente".

Inició estudios de Medicina, que dejó para pasar a Periodismo en 1950, pues ya empezaba a descubrir que sus aficiones, la literatura y el cine, serían las pasiones a las que dedicaría su vida.

En 1952 los censores del régimen de Fulgencio Batista encontraron a Cabrera culpable de incorporar obscenidades en un cuento que había escrito ese año. Como castigo, se le prohibió publicar con su nombre, asunto que fue resuelto mediante el uso del seudónimo G. Caín, una contracción de sus apellidos. En 1954, se convirtió en crítico cinematográfico de la revista Carteles en la que firmaba con su seudónimo (que utilizaría posteriormente en algunos de sus guiones) y con la que colaboraría hasta 1960. En las postrimerías de la década del cincuenta, Cabrera Infante escribió la mayor parte de las historias que serían compiladas más tarde en Así en la paz, como en la guerra.

Se casó con Marta Calvo (1934) en 1953 y tuvo con ella dos hijas (Ana, en 1954 y Carola, en 1958). Sin embargo, cinco años más tarde conoció a la actriz cubana Miriam Gómez, con la que se casó el 9 de diciembre de 1961 tras divorciarse de su primera mujer.

Tras la llegada al poder de Fidel Castro en 1959, Cabrera Infante, que había apoyado la Revolución cubana, fue nombrado director del Consejo Nacional de Cultura, ejecutivo del Instituto del Cine y subdirector del diario Revolución (actual Granma), encargándose de su suplemento literario, Lunes de Revolución, en el que pretendía llevar a cabo los sueños de libertad y desarrollo cultural de la revolución. Sin embargo, sus relaciones con el régimen pronto se deterioraron, debido al corto que Orlando Jiménez Leal y su hermano, Alberto "Sabá" Cabrera Infante (1933-2002), rodaron a finales de 1960. El corto P.M., el cual, sin una estructura definida, describía las maneras de divertirse de un grupo de habaneros durante un día de finales de 1960, fue prohibido al año siguiente por Castro. Estalló la polémica en las páginas de Lunes de Revolución, hasta que el suplemento fue suprimido (1961). La luna de miel de la revolución cubana con los intelectuales tocaba a su fin. En su discurso del 30 de junio de 1961 (Palabras a los intelectuales), Fidel Castro pronunció su célebre frase Dentro de la Revolución todo; contra de la Revolución, nada.

Cabrera Infante fue enviado a Bruselas en 1962 como agregado cultural de la embajada cubana. Durante su estancia en Bélgica, escribiría Un oficio del siglo XX (1963). Allí viviría con su segunda esposa, Miriam Gómez hasta 1965, cuando debido a la repentina muerte de su madre, vuelve a la isla. En Cuba fue retenido por el Servicio de Contrainteligencia durante cuatro meses, hasta que finalmente pudo salir hacia el exilio, llevándose a las dos hijas de su primer matrimonio. Cabrera Infante y su familia fueron a Madrid y luego a Barcelona. Sin embargo, las dificultades económicas y la negativa del régimen franquista a regularizar su situación le movieron a mudarse a Londres, donde se instaló definitivamente. La experiencia del breve retorno a su isla natal sería plasmada en su libro Mapa dibujado por un espía, publicado póstumamente en 2013.

En 1968 publicó en esa ciudad su primera novela de repercusión, Tres tristes tigres —TTT, como él la llamaba—, que originariamente se denominó Ella cantaba boleros. Se trataba de una versión, notablemente retocada, de su anterior trabajo Vista del amanecer en el trópico (premio Biblioteca Breve 1964 de Seix Barral). Se caracteriza por el uso ingenioso del lenguaje introduciendo coloquialismos cubanos y constantes guiños y referencias a otras obras literarias. En ella relata la vida nocturna de tres jóvenes en La Habana de 1958. En Cuba, la obra fue tildada de contrarrevolucionaria y Cabrera, expulsado de la Unión de Escritores y Artistas, fue calificado de traidor. Crítico implacable del régimen castrista, nunca regresó a Cuba y se negó a que sus obras Tres tristes tigres y La Habana para un infante difunto fueran publicados dentro de la línea de edición de emigrados del Ministerio de Cultura.

A principios de los años 1970 se instaló en Hollywood para dedicarse al mundo del cine como guionista, con discreto éxito. Trabajó para la película Bajo el volcán, de John Huston, basada en la novela de Malcolm Lowry. Dos años más tarde colaboró muy de cerca con la investigadora y traductora de literatura latinoamericana Suzanne Jill Levine, quien, junto con Donald Gardner, tradujo Tres tristes tigres, que se publicó con el título de Three Trapped Tigers. En 1979 obtuvo la ciudadanía británica. Ese mismo año publica su segunda obra más reconocida, la novela autobiográfica La Habana para un infante difunto.

Ganó el Premio Cervantes en 1997 y en 2003, el Internacional de la Fundación Cristóbal Gabarrón en la categoría de Letras.

De salud delicada en sus últimos años, fue ingresado en el Chelsea and Westminster Hospital de Londres debido a una fractura de cadera. Allí contrajo una septicemia por la que falleció el 21 de febrero de 2005. La noticia de su muerte no fue recogida en Cuba.

Su estilo se caracteriza por los continuos retruécanos, paronomasias, agudezas, uso del hipérbaton y traslaciones idiomáticas, con los que intenta imitar el ritmo sincopado del jazz; por el dominio de los registros coloquiales de la lengua cubana, por un espléndido sentido del humor y por una gran cultura, manifiesta en la abundante intertextualidad de que hacen gala sus textos.

En virtud de estos atributos, el crítico Enrico Mario Santí llegó a declarar que Cabrera Infante encarnaba, como ningún otro escritor, el estilo literario de la nación cubana, ya que su sentido del humor, el "choteo" cubano, reflejaba un modo de ser muy arraigado en la literatura y la vida de la isla. También Fernando Savater ha aludido a esta característica de su obra: "Guillermo Cabrera Infante ha cultivado en el más alto grado el sentimiento cómico de la vida: pero no como opuesto al sentimiento trágico, sino como una variante que lo agrava al purificarle del superfluo patetismo de la seriedad".

También es autor de poemas visuales. Su influencia es visible en la obra de autores de otras generaciones, como en  La guaracha del Macho Camacho del puertorriqueño Luis Rafael Sánchez o en Última rumba en La Habana del cubano Fernando Velázquez Medina.

Después de su muerte
En 2009 aparecieron los primeros signos de una reconcilación de Cuba con el escritor, después de que los periodistas Elizabeth Mirabal y Carlos Velazco ganaran ese año el premio de ensayo de la Unión Nacional de Escritores y Artistas, cuya editorial publicó el texto —más de 300 páginas sobre la vida y trayectoria de Cabrera Infante desde su infancia en Gibara hasta que abandonó definitivamente la isla en 1965— en 2011. Reynaldo González, Premio Nacional de Literatura, opina al respecto "que el libro tiene valor entre otras razones porque 'es bueno que cada vez haya menos adentros y afueras' en la literatura cubana".
Leonardo Padura sostiene, por su parte, que Cabrera Infante "es un indispensable de la cultura cubana", pues "tiene el gran mérito de haber convertido el lenguaje del habanero en lenguaje literario"; con independencia de las revelaciones que haga el ensayo en cuestión, el mero hecho de haber obtenido un premio oficial y ser publicado es un signo "positivo y reflejo de que poco a poco se vuelve a la normalidad".

Pero para el filósofo y narrador Fernando Savater, "esta publicación no es más que la típica jugada de los burócratas de las dictaduras moribundas, que intentan echar el lazo a escritores y artistas relevantes de la disidencia" y "fingen un reconocimiento tardío a sus méritos ensalzando sus logros creativos para mejor difuminar su oposición al régimen, que queda soslayado como algo circunstancial y menor". "Tal es la operación que pretenden hoy llevar a cabo los gestores del castrismo casi póstumo con la figura intelectual del autor que de modo más duradero, insobornable y consciente encarnó la denuncia de la dictadura caribeña: Guillermo Cabrera Infante", escribe Savater, que dice que en ese libro "lo más chocante no son las presencias, sino una gran ausencia". "Falta la voz esencial de la compañera constante y más intima colaboradora del escritor, Miriam Gómez. Cuantos conocimos a Guillermo no podemos recordarlo ni imaginarlo siquiera sin Miriam. Fue la primera lectora de todas y cada una de sus páginas, la destinataria de muchas y la mecanógrafa que puso en limpio la mayoría. Ahora es ella quien se encarga con amoroso cuidado de preparar para la edición sus obras póstumas, así como de gestionar el resto de sus escritos, tras haber rechazado ofertas sospechosamente generosas del oficialismo cubano, probablemente más deseoso de enterrar esos libros que le comprometen que de sacarlos a la luz. La ausencia de Miriam de esa tesis es más significativa, más devastadoramente significativa sobre ella que todos los testimonios recogidos allí". Savater concluye que la edición del citado ensayo "es el abrazo del oso, el abrazo doloso que el castrismo agonizante quiere dar a su incansable opositor para aprovecharse de su nombre".

En 2012, Galaxia Gutenberg/Círculo de Lectores comenzó a publicar las Obras completas de Cabrera Infante, que constarán de 8 o 9 tomos preparados por Toni Munné en estrecha colaboración con Miriam Gómez.

Obras publicadas

Novela
 Tres tristes tigres, Seix Barral, Barcelona,1967.
 La Habana para un infante difunto, Seix Barral, Barcelona, 1979.
 La ninfa inconstante, Galaxia Gutenberg, 2008 (publicación póstuma).

Cuento
 Así en la paz como en la guerra, Ediciones R, La Habana, 1960.
 Incluye los cuentos "Un rato de tenmeallá"; "Las puertas se abren a las tres"; "Balada de plomo y yerro"; "Resaca"; "Josefina, atiende a los señores"; "Un nido de gorriones en un toldo"; "Mar, mar, enemigo"; "La mosca en el vaso de leche"; "En el gran ecbó"; "Cuando se estudia gramática"; "Jazz"; "Abril es el mes más cruel"; "Ostras interrogadas" y "El día que terminó mi niñez".
 Delito por bailar el chachachá, Alfaguara, Madrid, 1995.
 Incluye los cuentos "En el gran ecbó"; "Una mujer que se ahoga" y "Delito por bailar el chachachá".
 Todo está hecho con espejos: cuentos casi completos, Alfaguara, 1999.
 Incluye los cuentos "Mi personaje inolvidable"; "La voz de la tortuga"; "Josefina, atiende los señores"; "Visita de cumplido"; "Oceanía"; "Cuando leyendo a Catalina Ana Portera sobre la gran Gertrudis Piedra"; "Un día de ira"; "Darle vueltas a una ceiba"; "La duración del tiempo"; "Madre no hay más que una"; "Historia de un bastón y algunos reparos de Mrs. Campbell"; "Muerte de un autómata"; "Delito por bailar el chachachá"; "Listas"; "El fantasma del Cine Essoldo"; "Un jefe salvado de las aguas" y "La soprano vienesa".

Crítica de cine
 Un oficio del siglo XX, Ediciones R, La Habana, 1963.
 Arcadia todas las noches, Seix Barral, Barcelona, 1978.
 Cine o sardina, Alfaguara, Madrid, 1997.

Ensayo
 Puro humo (escrito originalmente en inglés con el título de Holy Smoke en 1985, Faber, London y Harper & Row, New York). Fue publicado en español en 2000, Alfaguara, Madrid.

Memorias
 Cuerpos divinos, Círculo de Lectores-Galaxia Gutenberg, Barcelona, 2010 (publicación póstuma).
 Mapa dibujado por un espía, Círculo de Lectores-Galaxia Gutenberg, Barcelona, 2013, 396 págs (publicación póstuma).

Artículos y volúmenes misceláneos
 Vista del amanecer en el trópico, Seix Barral, Barcelona, 1974. (Edición ilustrada por Federic Amat en Galaxia Gutenberg, 1998).
 O, Seix Barral, Barcelona, 1975
 Exorcismos de esti(l)o, Seix Barral, Barcelona, 1976.
 Mea Cuba, Alfaguara, Madrid, 1992. (También, Vuelta, México, 1993).
 Mi música extremada, Espasa Calpe, Madrid, 1996.
 Vidas para leerlas, Alfaguara, Madrid, 1998.
 El libro de las ciudades, Alfaguara, Madrid, 1999.

Antologías
 Ella cantaba boleros, Alfaguara, Madrid, 1996. (Incluye una de las líneas narrativas de Tres tristes tigres publicada de manera independiente por sugerencia de los amigos de Cabrera Infante Mario Vargas Llosa y Javier Marías).
 Infantería, Fondo de Cultura Económica, México, 1999. (Preparada por Enrico Mario Santí y Nivia Montenegro).

Obras completas en Galaxia Gutenberg

El cronista de cine. Un oficio del siglo XX y otros escritos cinematográficos, Vol. I, Barcelona, 2012, 1536 pp.
Mea Cuba antes y después. Escritos políticos y literarios, Obras Completas, Vol. II, Barcelona, 2015, 1300 pp.
Habanidades (Tres tristes tigres y La Habana para un infante difunto),vol. III, Barcelona, 2016, 960 pp.
Narrativa póstuma, vol. IV (aún no publicado).
Escritos cinematográficos II, vol. V (aún no publicado).
Ensayos literarios, vol. VI (aún no publicado).
Miscelánea I. Lenguaje, viajes, ciudades, vol. VII (aún no publicado).
Miscelánea II. Música, humo, variedades, vol. VIII (aún no publicado).

Guiones cinematográficos
 Wonderwall, de Joe Massot; 1968
 Vanishing Point, de Richard Sarafian; 1971 (la película es conocida en España como Punto límite: cero y en México como Carrera contra el destino)
 Under the Volcano: el guion de Cabrera Infante, escrito en 1972, no llegó a ser rodado; en 1984 se estrenó la película Bajo el volcán, de John Huston, basada en novela homónima de Malcolm Lowry, pero con guion de Guy Gallo.
 La ciudad perdida, 2005; dirigida y protagonizada por Andy García y ambientada en la Cuba pre y posrevolucionaria.

Traducciones
 Dublineses, de James Joyce, 1972.

Premios y reconocimientos
 Premio Biblioteca Breve 1964 por Vista de amanecer en el trópico, novela que se convertiría después en la novela Tres tristes tigres (nada que ver con el libro de viñetas del mismo título que publicaría diez años más tarde).
 Premio Cervantes 1997.
 Premio Internacional de la Fundación Cristóbal Gabarrón 2003, categoría Letras.

Referencias

Enlaces externos

 Entrevista a Guillermo Cabrera Infante en el programa A Fondo de TVE
 Biografía de Cabrera Infante en el Instituto Cervantes
 El castropadre de Cabrera Infante
• GCI: amanecer en el trópico convertido en renegado

Escritores de Cuba
Novelistas de Cuba
Disidentes de Cuba
Traductores de Cuba
Traductores del inglés al español
Traductores de James Joyce
Escritores en español del siglo XX
Ganadores del Premio Cervantes
Ganadores del Premio Biblioteca Breve
Fallecidos por septicemia
Guillermo Cabrera Infante
Fallecidos en Londres

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


text:
Rainforests
Animals & Environment
Vaquita habitat now listed as 'World Heritage in Danger'
by Mongabay.com on 10 July 2019
The UNESCO World Heritage Committee has decided to list the Sea of Cortez and its islands in Mexico's Gulf of California, the only place where the critically endangered vaquita is known to occur, on the List of World Heritage in Danger.
The porpoise's numbers have dropped drastically, from around 300 in the mid-2000s to just 10 individuals, according to the latest estimate, mostly as a result of getting entangled in gillnets used in the poaching of totoaba fish.
The continuing illegal totoaba trade poses a threat to the outstanding universal value of the World Heritage Site, the World Heritage Committee said, recommending that the site be placed on the List of World Heritage in Danger.
The story of the vaquita (Phocoena sinus), the smallest and the most threatened species of porpoise, is one of tragedy. The porpoise's numbers have dropped drastically, from around 300 in the mid-2000s to just 10 individuals, according to the latest estimate, mostly as a result of getting entangled in gillnets meant to catch the totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi).
The totoaba, too, is critically endangered and found only in the Gulf of California. It's prized for its swim bladders in China, and demand for the delicacy has given rise to totoaba poaching using gillnets and a massive illegal trade in Mexico.
In its report, the World Heritage Committee welcomed Mexico's efforts to protect the vaquita by taking steps such as creating a refuge area for the species, promoting alternative fishing gear, and stepping up surveillance in the upper Gulf of California. "Unfortunately, these efforts appear not to have significantly reduced the pressures on the property from illegal fishing of totoaba, nor prevented the further decline of the vaquita population," the report notes.
The few remaining vaquitas live a very small area, most of which lies within the Vaquita Refuge, the report says, where illegal fishing for totoaba continues to occur at high levels.
"It is an alarming indicator of the severity of illegal wildlife trade that we may soon witness the extinction of such an iconic species as the vaquita — within the supposed safety of a World Heritage site," Peter Shadie, director of the IUCN's World Heritage Programme, said in a statement. "Mexico's constructive approach to the Gulf of California's danger-listing will help mobilise action to stop this threat before it depletes more of our precious marine heritage, and IUCN stands ready to support its efforts."
Inscribed on the World Heritage List in 2005, the Islands and Protected Areas of the Gulf of California (also called the Sea of Cortez and its islands) contains the vaquita's habitat, and is recognized as an area of global marine conservation significance. The area, with its spectacularly diverse habitats, landscapes and species, is also considered to have "outstanding universal value," or OUV. The continuing illegal totoaba trade poses a threat to the OUV, the report notes.
Recommending that the area be placed on the List of World Heritage in Danger, the World Heritage Committee requested Mexico to "develop, in consultation with the World Heritage Centre and IUCN, a set of corrective measures, a timeframe for their implementation and a proposal … to address the issue of illegal fishing and to enable the necessary regulatory and operational reforms for legal fisheries to ensure that they are sustainable and do not cause bycatch of marine mammals, sharks and turtles, in order to guarantee the long-term protection of the OUV of the property."
A vaquita swims in the Gulf of California. Image by Paula Olson/NOAA via Wikimedia Commons (Public domain).
Article published by Shreya Dasgupta
Animals, Conservation, Environment, Marine, Marine Animals, Marine Mammals, Saving Species From Extinction, UNESCO World Heritage Site, Vaquita, Wildlife, Wildlife Trade, Wildlife Trafficking
Mongabay is a non-profit that depends on support from readers like you. Donate here.
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text:
Sports technology in game for 2020
What are some of the technologies that will transform the playing field of sports?
2 January 2020 | 123 Shares
How technology supports the champions of tomorrow. Source: AFP
Technology has been transforming just about every aspect of life, and sports is no exception. According to reports, the sports technology market is predicted to hit a whopping US$31.1 billion by 2024.
How Miami Heat uses fan data to keep its arena packed
There are numerous ongoing technological developments in the field, be it in improving the performance of athletes to its use in large sporting events to help referees make decisions during a game.
Based on a survey of industry experts, Scrum Ventures notes that some of the biggest technology set to have the biggest impact in the following years are fan engagement technologies, athlete performance technologies, and stadium experience technologies.
Fan engagement tech
Which technologies would make the biggest impact on the sports industry in the next 12 months?
An overwhelming number of survey respondents (78 percent) chose fan engagement technologies such as live streaming, eSports and content platforms compared to technologies related to athlete performance (16 percent) and stadium experience (6 percent).
Technology can open the door to a myriad of opportunities for sports organizations to better understand their fans and strengthen their engagement with them.
For instance, NASCAR, an auto racing, company employs Adobe's Experience Cloud to analyze customer data for optimal marketing strategies. Based on data insights, the auto racing brand is offering augmented reality (AR) experiences and other eSports services to attract new fans. NASCAR aims to appeal to the younger, tech-savvy generation through digital strategies while keeping the interests of current fans ablaze.
Organizations that employ technology to achieve this goal will benefit in the long run and access an arena of opportunities to lead in the industry as the relationship between sports teams and fans is invaluable.
Echoing this is Tom Masterman, STT Mentor and Global Head of Publisher Sales at Genius Sports Media, who said, "Anticipating the next fan engagement trend is critical, whether you're a team, brand or media company."
Athlete performance tech
Some organizations are exploring technology's potential to improve fan engagement, but others are tapping into the latest tech tools to improve the performance of athletes.
A total of 16 percent of respondents believe wearables, coaching platforms, and recovery health technologies will transform the current sports technology industry.
This example is best illustrated by the German football team, who tapped into the power of technology as they marched on to win their fourth FIFA World Cup trophy in 2014.
Midfielder Mario Götze's 113th minute goal clinched victory in the final against Argentina, but he had not started the game. Coach Joachim Löw brought Götze off the bench in the 88th minute, in a decision that was as much driven by data as it was tactics and instinct.
While training for the 2014 FIFA World Cup, the German team wore small devices to monitor their heart rate, speed, and distance. A performance data analyst then crunches the data after each training session and evaluates the performance of each athlete. Following this, coaches use this information to improve future workouts, in addition to helping them with their decision making during a game.
Within this context, it was data and technology that helped Low choose the "right" player during a crucial game — and the effort paid off.
While technology can play a role in helping coaches assemble their A-team, the remaining 6 percent of respondents are keen on how technology can transform the stadium experience for its fans.
Can we take data management tips from England football?
Stadium experience tech
A report by Deloitte notes that stadium attendance has stagnated, in light of pricey tickets and sports fans who have built themselves "comfortable 'digital nests' at home with enormous TV screens, surround sound, and access to 24/7 games and commentary", among other reasons.
Managing the stadium experience is undoubtedly a challenging one for both managers and staff, what with managing the flow of traffic from multiple entrances to the safety of visitors. However, organizations have found new approaches to improve the experience for visitors and staff.
For instance, Miami Heat launched a mobile app that allows visitors to enter the stadium with a digital ticket and purchase food or merchandise via e-payment. The deployment of an app significantly reduced waiting time and improved the stadium experience for fans.
Meanwhile, in anticipation of massive crowds attending the Tokyo 2020 Olympics and 2020 Paralympics, Tokyo Metropolitan Police and Panasonic are collaborating on a new crowd forecasting system. The system will provide real-time management of pedestrian and vehicle flow around major venues once the crowd departs the event. The collected data will guide visitors to the best exit route via messages or electronic signs on their phones.
Without a doubt, it's clear that sports technology will continue to transform and revolutionize the industry, paving the way for better management of sporting events to enhanced performance among athletes.
Apps Big Data


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TD's Week 10 musings
Around this time of year you normally have a good idea of who's good and who's bad. Which teams have been unlucky and which have a horseshoe up their backsides. But in 2011 the NFL continues to throw up strange results every week. Having seen a good few games this weekend here are the things that caught my eye from week 10:
· Jim Harbaugh is fantastic
While the 49ers are making headlines for defying pre-season predictions, Alex Smith's renaissance and a brutally tough defense the biggest thing I took from Sunday's win against the Giants was the surprise onside kick Harbaugh pulled in the 2nd quarter. The score was 6-6 at the time and every little mistake could have swung the game at that point, so what did the 1st year head coach do? Manufacture an extra drive for his offense. A true surprise onside kick, like the one the Saints did in the Super Bowl, has a far higher chance of recovery for the kicking team than an expected one. All too often the front line of the return unit drop back before the ball has even left the tee. It's a bad habit that can be exploited. Harbaugh is willing to do that, and every team needs to be aware of it now.
· The Jets don't trust Sanchez
Mark Sanchez had a tough day against the NFL's worst
pass defense
The Steelers showed everyone how you beat the Patriots: Throw the ball as often as you can. Roethlisberger threw over 50 passes and the Steelers had the ball for almost 40 minutes. But the Jets simply couldn't bring themselves to do it. It was right there for the taking. The pats starting line up on defense had 2 people with no intro during the usual SNF roll call. I have NEVER seen that before. Devin McCourty even separated his shoulder after getting lit up by one of them. And yet Sanchez could muster only a paltry 51% completion rate.
· Mike Martz has evolved
It only took about 4,000 hits on Cutler before Mike Martz learnt to adapt his offense. But he has, and it's shown through. The Bears have been keeping tight ends in to pass protect, putting a full back in and committed to the running game and are all of a sudden on a 4 game win streak. Jay Cutler finally looks like a player worth the huge package they gave up for him now he's not in fear for his life back there. Chicago have a legitimately good offense and continue to play fantastic defense with Peppers, Urlacher, Briggs and the underrated Charles Tillman. They'll give anyone in the NFL a run for their money.
· These 0-10 Colts might just be worse than the 0-16 Lions
This Colts team has 5 pro-bowlers on it (off the top of my head) and much more talent on the 53-man roster than Detroit's 2008 offering, so how are they this awful? The 0-16 Lions lost 4 games by a touchdown or less. So far the Colts have 2 such defeats. But the 0-16 Lions only had 7 games where they lost by 2 TD's or more, the Colts already have 5. My point is this, those Lions tried! The Colts seem resigned, across the board, to losing every game by a lot simply because #18 isn't there. This is an awful job by every single coach on their staff as well as the front office for not being prepared. When Tom Brady went down in 2008 the Pats had spent draft picks on back-ups and tailored a simple offense for him. The Colts have done no such thing. It's a poor job.
Plenty of fan bases have resorted to the brown bag, Indy might
be next
· The 2012 Bengals Bandwagon is going to be very crowded
This week was going to be a test to see if they were real or not. The first of 3 games against AFC North power-houses in 4 weeks, and they passed. With 14 seconds left in the half they were in danger of going into the half down 14-0. But their rookies had other ideas. Andy Dalton bought himself some time and heaved a ball into the endzone where AJ Green beat 2 Steeler defenders to come down with it. They did not back down from the fight and bloodied the Steelers while they were at it. The Bengals defense is as tough as nails, throw in Dalton, Green, a powerful offensive line and 2nd year tight end Jermaine Gresham, plus the Carson Palmer windfall and you've got the potential to really compete in 2012. Just as long as Marv Lewis doesn't mess it up…
Jared Allen reveled in the boos last night
· Jared Allen is D Player of the Year
He's only got 0.5 sacks more than DeMarcus Ware but he's doing it with less around him in my opinion. Rob Ryan's defense is blitz-happy and works holes for Ware (not to take anything away from him, he's an excellent player) but Allen gets pressure out of simple 4 man rushes consistently and also plays the run very well. Allen has recorded at least half a sack in every game this season, something Ware hasn't. And while both have a shot at breaking Strahan's single season record (22.5) I think Allen has the best chance.
· Christian Ponder has a future
Yes, the scoreboard was not a pretty sight for Vikings fans last night, but Christian Ponder has showed enough in his handful of starts for me to think the Vikes have something with him. He's shown to be very calm under pressure. The Packers defense had their best game of the season last night and the stat line doesn't look too great for Ponder: 16/34, 190 yards and an interception, but he's shown the ability to go through progressions, he can drive the ball on deep outs and can make plays with his legs. The downfield strength is lacking a bit, but that will come as he continues to develop.
· The Ravens are the most frustrating team in the NFL
Ray Rice does with 1 throw what Flacco couldn't do with 52
The records of the teams they've beaten: 31-26. For the teams they've lost to: 11-16. It's mind boggling how they can be so very good one week and then miserably play down to their opponents the next. The game plan against the Seahawks was especially mystifying. At no point was the game out of hand. The Seahawks lead 22-7 with 12 minutes still left in the 3rd quarter but Joe Flacco ends up throwing it 52 times! Ray Rice, the best player on their offense by a long way, got 14 touches if you includehis passing TD. That's criminal. He averaged 5.4 yards on his 5 carries and 6.8 on his 8 catches. WHY ARE YOU NOT GIVING HIM THE BALL MORE!?! Rice isn't the only running back who seems to get forgotten during games either, LeSean McCoy touched the ball 19 times in a loss and Adrian Peterson just 14 times. One of the big reasons for the Bears 4 game winning streak is they put the offense through Matt Forte because he's really good. Other teams should be doing the same.
· The Packers are still really good
- Toby Durant (@TDonSport)
- The Pulling Linemen
Posted by Writers at 14:57
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Toby Durant (@TDOnSport)
Favourite Team: New England Patriots.
Played since 2007.
Played For: Nottingham Outlaws ('07-'10, TE & LT).
Oxford Saints ('11-present, OT, OG, DT)
Coached for: Oxford Brookes Panthers ('11-present
About Me: Have been watching football avidly since '06, writing since '11 just for the love of the game.
Phil Gaskin (@plrgaskin)
Favourite Team: St Louis Rams
Played For: Bath Killer Bees (08/09, OG), Nottingham Outlaws (09-12, C/OG), Nottingham Caesars (11-13, OG/C)
About me: Former Nottingham Outlaws President and Coach. I play, I watch and I blog. There is no greater sport.
Gur Samuel (@FredTheGur)
Favourite Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Played For: Nottingham Outlaws, OT (2 seasons, 2009/10-2010/11).
Coached since: 2012
Coached for: London Hornets, Offensive Line (2012)
LSBU Spartans, Offensive Line, Assistant Head Coach (2012/13)
East Kent Mavericks, Offensive Line (2013 - )
Canterbury Christchurch Chargers, Offensive Co-ordinator (2013/14 - )
About Me: used to play, now I coach