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Coronavirus daily news updates, January 13: What to know today about COVID-19 in the Seattle area, Washington state and the world – The Seattle Times
Hamza Chohan
Coronavirus infections across the globe rose by about 55% last week from the previous week's tally, as officials reported 15 million new cases. But the rate of deaths related to the virus remained stable, according to the World Health Organization's weekly pandemic report.
Every region in the world reported an increase in COVID-19 cases except for Africa, where officials reported an 11% drop in reported cases.
Meanwhile, U.S. officials in several states are debating how and whether to impose mask mandates as COVID-19 cases soar and residents grow weary of pandemic restrictions. At the same time, White House officials are "strongly considering options" to make high-quality masks, such as N95 or KN95 masks, more available.
We're updating this page with the latest news about the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects on the Seattle area, the U.S. and the world. Click here to see previous days' live updates and all our other coronavirus coverage, and here to see how we track the daily spread across Washington.
Gov. Jay Inslee has set a press conference today at 2:30 p.m. to discuss the state's ongoing response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
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COVID-19 hospitalizations continue to jump to record levels in Washington as the omicron variant makes its way across the state — a concerning trend as the region's short supply of health care workers is also becoming infected, testing supplies are running low and medical procedures continue to be postponed or canceled.
"This is the worst situation [that] hospitals in Washington state have been in compared to any prior point in the pandemic," Taya Briley, vice president of the Washington State Hospital Association, said in a Thursday news conference.
As of Thursday, COVID hospitalizations had hit an average of about 1,800 in the past week, exceeding the state's past high of about 1,700 hospitalizations per week in mid-September. Of those, about 149 patients are on ventilators — a 16% increase since last week, Briley said.
In King County, coronavirus infections and hospitalizations have continued to rise to record numbers as the omicron variant persists. On Thursday, Public Health — Seattle & King County reported a daily average of 5,896 new cases and 63 daily hospitalizations.
Cruise lines that sail in the United States will soon be allowed to decide if they want to follow pandemic-era guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The "conditional sailing order," a mandatory set of rules that cruise companies have had to follow since 2020, expires on Saturday. After that, the agency will transition to a "voluntary COVID-19 risk mitigation program" for ships that are registered in foreign countries and operate in U.S. waters.
These rules have included requiring vaccination for a certain percentage of passengers and crew; tests before boarding for passengers and regular testing for crew; and mask-wearing indoors unless eating or drinking.
The shift to a voluntary program comes after the CDC raised its health notice level for cruise ships, warning all travelers to avoid cruising as the omicron variant sent case numbers skyrocketing. According to the agency, cruise ships reported 14,803 coronavirus cases between Dec. 30 and Jan. 12. That's 95 times the number of cases reported — 155 — between Dec. 1 and 14.
Russia on Thursday recorded a sharp increase in coronavirus cases amid warnings by government officials that another surge in infections driven by the highly contagious omicron variant could be on its way.
Russia's state coronavirus task force reported 21,155 new contagions on Thursday, 18% more than the previous day and 33% more than on Monday. The task force also recorded 740 new deaths.
The new spike in infections comes after a steady decline of new cases over several weeks following an earlier record-setting surge.
Read the story here.
The state Department of Health (DOH) reported 16,659 new coronavirus cases and 40 new deaths on Thursday.
The update brings the state's totals to 1,025,322 cases and 10,143 deaths, meaning that 1.0% of people diagnosed in Washington have died, according to the DOH. The data is as of 11:59 p.m. Wednesday.
The new cases may include up to 800 duplicates, according to DOH.
In addition, 48,603 people have been hospitalized in the state due to the virus — 519 new hospitalizations. In King County, the state's most populous, state health officials have confirmed a total of 262,287 COVID-19 diagnoses and 2,177 deaths.
Since vaccinations began in mid-December, the state and health care providers have administered 12,238,480 doses and 63% of Washingtonians have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, according to vaccination data, which the state updates on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. Providers are currently giving an average of about 20,600 vaccine shots per day.
The DOH says its daily case reports may also include duplicate test results, results assigned to the wrong county, results that are reported for today but are actually from a previous day, occasional false positive tests and other data discrepancies. Because of this, the previous day's total number of cases plus the number of new daily cases does not add up to the new day's total number of cases. State health officials recommend reviewing the dashboard's epidemiologic curves tab for the most accurate representation of the state's COVID-19 spread.
French teachers have walked out in a nationwide strike Thursday to express anger at the way the government is handling the virus situation in schools, denouncing confusing rules and calling for more protection.
Exhausted by the pressures of surging COVID-19 cases, a large majority of teachers were expected to support the call by 11 unions to protest virus-linked class disruptions and ever-changing isolation rules.
Unions have staged a street protest in Paris city center on Thursday afternoon.
Most COVID-19 patients in intensive care in German hospitals aren't vaccinated, data published on Thursday indicates.
The data from Germany's intensive care association DIVI showed that 62% of ICU patients whose vaccine status was known had received no protective shots against the coronavirus. Unvaccinated people make up about a quarter of the German population.
Almost 10% were only partially vaccinated while 28% of ICU patients were fully inoculated, it said.
About 72.3 % of the German population has received at least two jabs, while 45.1% have also had a booster shot.
Germany's independent vaccine advisory panel on Thursday endorsed booster shots for children and adolescents aged 12 to 17.
President Joe Biden announced Thursday that the government will double to 1 billion the rapid, at-home COVID-19 tests to be distributed free to Americans, along with the most protective N95 masks, as he highlighted his efforts to "surge" resources to help the country weather the spike in coronavirus cases.
Biden also announced that starting next week 1,000 military medical personnel will begin deploying across the country to help overwhelmed medical facilities ease staff shortages due to the highly transmissible omicron variant.
Speaking at the White House Thursday, Biden acknowledged that, "I know we're all frustrated as we enter this new year" as virus cases reach new heights. But, he insisted, it remains "a pandemic of the unvaccinated."
The explosion of omicron cases along the I-95 corridor from the Mid-Atlantic to New England is showing signs of slowing down, according to health officials and epidemiologists, offering reason for cautious optimism that the turning point could be near and that the variant's U.S. trajectory is similar to that of other countries.
Coronavirus levels in Boston-area wastewater are falling, a promising sign because alarmingly high levels spotted earlier presaged record infections. The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia has seen the rate of teachers testing positive during asymptomatic weekly screening plunge from 25% in the week between Christmas and New Year's to 2% in recent days.
"Omicron is more like a flash flood than a wave. It goes to enormously high levels very quickly and then, based on other parts of the world, may come down very quickly," said Tom Frieden, a former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director and New York City health commissioner. "We know that the more people who are up to date with their vaccines, the fewer deaths there will be, the fewer hospitalizations there will be and the less economic disruption there will be."
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court has stopped the Biden administration from enforcing a requirement that employees at large businesses be vaccinated against COVID-19 or undergo weekly testing and wear a mask on the job.
At the same time, the court is allowing the administration to proceed with a vaccine mandate for most health care workers in the U.S.
Four inmates at a northwest Arkansas jail sued the facility and its doctor Thursday after they said were unknowingly prescribed ivermectin to treat COVID-19 despite health officials' warnings that the anti-parasitic drug shouldn't be used for that purpose.
The American Civil Liberties Union of Arkansas filed the lawsuit in federal court on behalf of the detainees against the Washington County jail, Washington County Sheriff Tim Helder and Dr. Robert Karas. Helder in August revealed that ivermectin had been prescribed to inmates to treat their COVID-19.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved ivermectin for use by people and animals for some parasitic worms, head lice and skin conditions. The FDA has not approved its use in treating or preventing COVID-19 in humans. According to the FDA, side effects for the drug include skin rash, nausea and vomiting.
The inmates said they were never told ivermectin was among the medications they had been given to treat their COVID-19, and instead were told they were being given vitamins, antibiotics or steroids.
"The truth, however, was that without knowing and voluntary consent, plaintiffs ingested incredibly high doses of a drug that credible medical professionals, the FDA, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, all agree is not an effective treatment against COVID-19, and that if given in large doses is dangerous for humans," the lawsuit said.
Karas and the sheriff's office did not immediately respond to requests for comment about the lawsuit. Karas has previously said no inmates were forced to take the drug.
Former President Donald Trump is slamming politicians who refuse to say whether they have received COVID-19 booster shots as "gutless."
"You gotta say it. Whether you had it or not, say it," Trump said in an interview that aired Tuesday night on the conservative One America News Network.
Trump, who was booed last month by supporters after revealing he had gotten a booster shot, has become increasingly vocal in calling out those who have questioned the vaccines' efficacy and safety. It's a change in posture for Trump as he eyes another run for the White House and faces potential competition from a long list of possible Republican challengers.
Even though the vaccines were developed during the Trump administration, they remain deeply unpopular with large segments of the Republican base, fueled in part by rampant disinformation. Trump, while in office, consistently downplayed the risk posed by COVID-19 and he received his vaccine privately, even as other members of his administration were inoculated in public to help boost confidence in the shots.
"Well, I've taken it. I've had the booster," Trump said in the interview. "I watched a couple of politicians be interviewed and one of the questions was, 'Did you get the booster?' …. And they, 'Oh, oh,' they're answering it — like in other words, the answer is 'Yes,' but they don't want to say it. Because they're gutless."
Long checkout lines. Closed fitting rooms. Empty shelves. Shortened store hours.
Plus the dread of contracting the coronavirus and yet another season of skirmishes with customers who refuse to wear masks.
A weary retail workforce is experiencing the fallout from the latest wave of the pandemic, with a rapidly spreading variant cutting into staffing.
While data shows that people infected with the omicron variant are far less likely to be hospitalized than those with the delta variant, especially if they are vaccinated, many store workers are dealing with a new jump in illness and exposures, grappling with shifting guidelines around isolation and juggling child care. At the same time, retailers are generally not extending hazard pay as they did earlier in the pandemic and have been loath to adopt vaccine or testing mandates.
Most access to a major city adjacent to Beijing was suspended Thursday as China tried to contain an outbreak of the highly contagious omicron variant, which poses a test to its "zero-tolerance" COVID-19 policy and its ability to successfully host the Winter Olympics.
Tianjin, a port and manufacturing center with 14 million people, is one of a half-dozen cities where the government is imposing lockdowns and other restrictions as part of a policy that aims to track down every virus case. But the outbreak in a city so close to the Olympic host is particularly worrying.
Throughout the pandemic, authorities have been especially protective of Beijing since it is the seat of government and home to senior politicians. With the Games opening there in just over three weeks and China's national pride on the line, the stakes are even higher now.
Last-minute closures in Seattle Public Schools this week have prompted students to organize a sickout, threaten a strike, demand improved safety protocols and call for more transparency from the state's largest school district.
They're not alone. Parents and teachers alike say the district failed to anticipate the need to shift to remote learning as a predictable wave of coronavirus cases caused school cancellations around the region.
During this second week back from winter break, classes were canceled because of coronavirus-related staffing shortages and because there weren't enough substitutes to meet the demand, a trend that has plagued school districts across the country.
Seattle students say they've decided to join a national, student-led movement calling for remote learning and stronger school safety standards as COVID-19 cases are spiking.
The U.S. Army, for the first time ever, is offering a maximum enlistment bonus of $50,000 to skilled recruits who join for six years,The Associated Press has learned, as the service struggles to lure soldiers into certain critical jobs during the continuing pandemic.
Maj. Gen. Kevin Vereen, head of Army Recruiting Command, told AP that shuttered schools and the competitive job market over the past year have posed significant challenges for recruiters. So heading into the most difficult months of the year for recruiting, the Army is hoping that some extra cash and a few other changes will entice qualified young people to sign up.
"We are still living the implications of 2020 and the onset of COVID, when the school systems basically shut down," said Vereen. "We lost a full class of young men and women that we didn't have contact with, face-to-face."
Two years of the pandemic has made it more difficult to recruit in schools and at public events, and the competition for quality workers has intensified as young people weigh their options.
Gov. Kate Brown is deploying Oregon National Guard members to help at hospitals that she says are under extreme pressure due to a COVID-19 omicron-fueled surge in hospitalizations.
A total of 1,200 Guard members will be deployed to more than 50 hospitals across the state, KATU-TV reported.
"Fueled by the Omicron variant, current hospitalizations are over 700 and daily COVID-19 case counts are alarmingly high," she said on Twitter, thanking Guard members, their families and their employers for this sacrifice and support.
As the coronavirus was sweeping across the United States last summer and the country was still without a vaccine, Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker promoted a "mist" that he claimed would "kill any COVID on your body."
Walker, who is vying to unseat freshman Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., and has been endorsed by former president Donald Trump, did not name the supposed product, which he claimed was "EPA-, FDA-approved."
The newly-unearthed comments bring renewed scrutiny to Walker, who is already facing criticism over allegations that he threatened the lives of two women, including his ex-wife, and embellished his business record.
There is no known mist or spray that can prevent COVID-19.
While many Americans scramble to track down increasingly scarce rapid at-home coronavirus tests, they are abundant for white-collar employees of some of the country's biggest companies.
Workers at corporate giants such as Google and JPMorgan Chase can request tests be sent to them free. At Google, employees can receive as many as 20 tests per month, even if they're not going into the office. Delta Air Lines allows its flight staff and corporate employees to order sets of six antigen tests every three weeks.
Sports leagues like the National Basketball Association and the National Football League provide frequent testing to players to ensure they can travel and play for their teams. Other companies such as Microsoft and Mastercard offer a combination of at-home and in-person testing.
Many companies, including Wells Fargo and American Airlines, also offer on-site testing for employees who must interact with customers in person, helping workers and the public stay safe while increasing demand for tests.
The situation is the latest manifestation of the United States' uneven response to the pandemic. Many Americans, including people who need rapid testing to attend work or school in person, are facing empty pharmacy shelves and "no inventory" banners on e-commerce sites. But hundreds of thousands of accurate at-home testing solutions are held by wealthy companies with the money and motivation to provide them to their workforces — whether employees work in the office or not.
Delta Air Lines lost $408 million in the final quarter of 2021, dragged down by a COVID-19 surge that rocked the airline in December, and the carrier predicted Thursday that it will suffer one more quarterly loss before travel perks up in spring and summer.
CEO Ed Bastian said 8,000 employees have contracted COVID-19 over the last four weeks. Sick workers and winter storms have led to more than 2,200 cancelled flights since Dec. 24.
Cancellations have dropped sharply in the past few days, but the spate of spiked flights cost the airline $75 million and the latest outbreak, caused by the omicron variant of the virus, is expected to push the industry's recovery back by two months.
Delta expects omicron infections to peak over the next few days and then decline rapidly as it has in South Africa and — more slowly — in the United Kingdom.
The false rumor spread with omicron-like rapidity: Washington state's Board of Health was about to authorize local health officials and police to round up people for refusing to get coronavirus vaccines and lock them up in quarantine. After radio hosts and congressional candidates threw tinder on the fire, protesters showed up yesterday to rage against the nonexistent plot and a real — but very early stage — study on whether to mandate the vaccines for schoolchildren. Let's sort fact from fiction and look at how things got this wild.
Frustrated Seattle students are planning a sickout and demanding masks and COVID-19 tests as school closures climb across the Puget Sound area.
Are you using the best mask against omicron, and are you wearing it correctly? Our new visual guide shows the CDC's recommendations for different mask types and how to maximize protection with each. And you can reuse KN95 or N95 masks — here's how to safely do it. Plus, know the difference between those masks and how to spot a fake.
Washington state has surpassed a million coronavirus cases, with the whopping omicron surge sending chart lines nearly vertical as the state also marked a grim milestone on deaths. But a glimmer of hope is emerging in case rates along the East Coast. You can see the risk anywhere in the country in real time, and track the virus' spread in Washington state on these maps.
Because omicron is so contagious, should you just catch it and get it out of the way? Epidemiologists are explaining why trying to get infected is a terrible idea.
An interview with CDC chief Rochelle Walensky sparked outrage — but it turns out that ABC's editing distorted what Walensky really said, leaving out context that she considered crucial. The network has taken down the misleading clips.
The U.S. military is heading into overwhelmed hospitals to help handle the omicron spike that's sent many health workers into quarantine. We'll learn about other pieces of the federal "surge response" at 7:30 a.m., when President Joe Biden speaks. Watch it live or catch up later.
Additional American Rescue Plan funding will soon be available for downtown business owners – YourErie
How four California universities missed out on $47 million – CalMatters


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Production, overproduction and overproduction crises
by Jon Britton
Contradictions of Capitalism Economics of Capitalism Uncategorized
Author's note: The following article was mostly written before Donald Trump became president-elect. His electoral victory if anything strengthens the thesis presented that imperialist governments, led by the U.S., will soon shift from a focus on monetary policy toward greater use of "fiscal stimulus" (government deficit spending) to extend the "recovery" from the overproduction crisis of 2007-2009 and attempt to reverse the decline of the U.S. empire. However "unconventional" the policies a Trump administration may introduce, the objective laws governing the capitalist economy uncovered by Karl Marx will prevail in the end.
Marxist economists often use the terms overproduction and overproduction crisis. But what exactly is overproduction? What is being overproduced, and in relation to what? Why does overproduction inevitably lead to a crisis and contraction of the capitalist economy? How do overproduction crises re-balance and stabilize the economy—a prerequisite for renewed growth of production?
A common conception of overproduction is based on Marx's theory of surplus value, in turn based on the labor theory of value. Productive (of surplus value) workers receive in wages and benefits only a fraction of the value they create in the course of the work day. In effect, they work for themselves for part of the day in return for wages (paid labor) and for the capitalist the rest of the day free of charge (unpaid labor).
'Underconsumptionism'
According to this view of overproduction, in the aggregate workers cannot purchase all the commodities they produce, and the result is a deficit in aggregate demand. This is a variant of the theory sometimes referred to as "underconsumptionism."
Believers in underconsumptionism sometimes explain the fact that the capitalist economy is subject to periodic crises (usually every 7-11 years) this way: Demand in the economy fluctuates based on expanding and contracting credit and rising and falling interest rates, at least partly controlled by the central bank—in the United States the Federal Reserve System. When workers take on debt, it expands demand for cars and housing and enables other major purchases. This expansion of credit temporarily overcomes the "underconsumptionism" inherent in capitalism, allowing the economy to expand.
When, however, wages rise "excessively," allegedly causing inflation (according to pro-capitalist economists), the Fed is called upon, as is sometimes said, to "take away the punch bowl before the party gets out of hand." Credit is tightened, interest rates shoot up and a "credit crunch" ensues. Millions of workers are laid off, and the economy plunges into recession.
The crisis itself causes interest rates eventually to fall and forces many businesses and individuals into bankruptcy, wiping out substantial amounts of debt. The basis is thereby laid for economic recovery, a renewed expansion of credit (and debt), and a new upturn in the cycle.
A major flaw
A major flaw in this underconsumptionist explanation of overproduction crises is the notion that it is only, or mainly, workers who contribute to aggregate demand. However, capitalists as well as their unproductive (of surplus value) hangers on—not least the government and its dependents—also contribute, and not in a small way. When the capitalists (corporations are collective capitalists) realize in money the surplus value contained in the commodities produced by their workers, they allocate part of it (in the form of dividends, interest, rent, bonuses and the like) to their own lavish consumption, adding to demand. The larger part of realized surplus value, however, is re-invested productively through the purchase of machinery, raw and auxiliary materials (such as energy), and labor power (hiring more workers) to further expand production.
Such productive new investment also contributes to aggregate demand, effectively demolishing the simple underconsumptionist explanation outlined above.
Rosa Luxemburg (1871-1919), the famous German revolutionary Marxist, put forward a more sophisticated underconsumptionist theory, which in addition to explaining economic downturns sought to explain the rise of monopoly capitalism/imperialism in the last third of the 19th century. She also argued that inherent in a pure capitalist economy is a deficit of demand for all the commodities produced. Only the existence and purchasing power of pre-capitalist economies in the world, she said, could make up this deficit. This in turn explained, she argued, the mad scramble of the leading capitalist powers in preceding years to conquer, colonize and divide up the globe.
Although there were significant elements of truth in this theory, Lenin and leading Russian Marxist theoretician Nicolai Bukharin, refuted her underconsumptionist argument on theoretical grounds, based on a deeper understanding of Marx's conceptions of capitalist expanded reproduction as presented in Volume II of "Capital." (For more on this theoretical controversy, see here.)
Keynes also something of an 'underconsumptionist'
The famous British bourgeois economist John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) was also something of an underconsumptionist, though not on the basis of the Marxist theory of value and surplus value, which he neither accepted nor understood.
Keynes was a believer in the "marginalist" theory of value, which was developed by, among others, the British economist Alfred Marshall (1842-1924). This theory holds that the value of "goods" is based on scarcity and not the quantity of labor that is socially necessary to produce them. It was developed in the latter half of the 19th century as a counter to Marx's labor theory of value and lives on to the current time as what is now termed "microeconomics."
According to this theory, the capitalist economy, if not interfered with by government regulation, minimum wage laws or union "monopolies," tends toward an equilibrium of "full employment"
of workers and machines. In response to the Great Depression of the 1930s, which in reality disproved this "theory," Keynes gave it a face lift to account for the reality of mass unemployment. Without going into detail (available in this series of Critique of Crisis Theory posts), Keynes claimed that it was possible for the capitalist economy in circumstances he termed a "liquidity trap" (excessive "saving" and insufficient spending) to reach an equilibrium characterized by mass unemployment and great excess industrial capacity.
Based on this theory, which later gave rise to what is now called "macroeconomics," Keynes and his followers called for government deficit spending to escape the liquidity trap and make up for the deficit in aggregate demand. The claim was that with the right mix of (central bank) monetary and (government) fiscal policies, serious economic crises would be a thing of the past.
This view was generally accepted, with some variations, by the ruling capitalist class. As President Richard Nixon said in 1971, "We are all Keynesians now."
As subsequent history was to show, however, capitalist economic crises continued to strike and even tended to get worse. To understand why, we have to go back to Marx's labor theory of value and apply it to production, overproduction and the role of money in the capitalist economy.
Production outruns the market
In simplest terms, overproduction is a rise of production of commodities relative to the market for those commodities. In other words, it is production of commodities in excess of what can be sold at a profit. This is an inherent feature of the capitalist economy, both in its competitive and its monopoly phase. But why is that, and is there a solution short of abolishing capitalism?
Clearly, if the problem is insufficient wages of workers, then a general rise in wages should be sufficient to overcome the problem. Or if that won't work (because higher wages lower profits and discourage production), increased government spending should do the trick. This was the solution put forward by Keynes and now by neo-Keynesians and post-Keynesians.
But exactly this solution was tried in the 1970s and led to stagflation (economic stagnation and soaring inflation), followed by the vicious crisis of 1980-1983. Now, after austerity and "quantitative easing" have failed to surmount economic stagnation and continued depression in the U.S. and EU, the Keynesian prescription is gaining support once again.
No solution within capitalism
In reality, there is no solution within capitalism. To understand why, we must clarify what is production and overproduction from a scientific standpoint. Production within capitalism is production of commodities, which possess both use values (utility) and value (being a product of abstract human labor, labor in general).
According to the law of labor value, perfected by Marx, commodities exchange based on the relative value (socially necessary human labor) on average contained within them. Money, as defined by Marx, is a special commodity that arose in the development of simple commodity production to facilitate exchange of commodities and serve as the universal equivalent and measure of value—since the abstract labor that goes into the production of commodities cannot be directly measured. Because of its unique physical qualities, gold emerged as the main money commodity.*
Gold could not serve as money if it was not a commodity and subject to the law of labor value just as other commodities are. As explained in a previous article, this remains the case today, despite the fact that the U.S. dollar and other "fiat" currencies are no longer on any form of gold standard and so no longer have a legally fixed parity to gold but "float" in gold value day to day.
Economists have long observed that market factors can and do cause prices of individual commodities to rise above or fall below their underlying values, or "natural prices." In the longer run, however, countervailing tendencies exert themselves and prices "revert to the mean." The end result is that market prices fluctuate above and below values (or rather "direct prices" corresponding to values) as competing capitalists seek the maximum profit—a key way in which the "invisible hand" of Adam Smith regulates production of commodities and distribution of labor in roughly the correct proportions. Otherwise, economic chaos and anarchy would prevail and capitalism would be impossible.
Less commonly understood is that something similar occurs on the level of the economy as a whole, involving the prices of all non-monetary commodities relative to the sum total of their values. The sum total of these prices can and do also rise and fall above and below their values. And here is the key to understanding not only the inevitability but actual necessity of capitalist crises of overproduction to regulate capitalist production—that is, keep production roughly within the bounds of the market.
But what determines the market and why does it inevitably lag behind the tremendous productive capabilities of capitalism? The answer is that monetarily effective demand in a capitalist economy is over the long run determined by the rate of growth of the global supply of money—that is, the global supply (both official and private holdings) of the money commodity gold. (For further details on this critical point, see previous article.) Ultimately, a crisis of generalized overproduction results from the overproduction of all—or at least most—commodities relative to the special commodity that serves as money.
Overproduction
What I want to do now is focus more precisely on what overproduction is based on the law of labor value.
First, how do we know when general overproduction of commodities has begun? There are several typical signs: Prices (in terms of gold) rise and soon begin on average to exceed their underlying labor values (direct prices); as prices rise, demand for money and credit grows and interest rates, which balance the supply and demand for money and credit, begin to rise above their longer-term averages, reflecting a growing shortage of loan money capital relative to productive capital (such as machines and the purchased labor power of workers); credit begins to expand rapidly, enabling overproduction in relation to the market to continue; and the "animal spirits" of capitalists and speculators are stirred up, leading to greater risk-taking in investments and outright gambling and even swindling in the financial markets.
The rise of prices (in terms of gold) cause the profitability of gold mining and refining to fall, since the costs of these industrial capitalists now also rise. Gold production then rises more slowly or actually begins to fall, thereby slowing the growth of the global supply of the money commodity.
Overproduction can go on for some time with the further extension of credit by the banks and other lenders to both capitalists and consumers—leading into the "boom" phase of the industrial cycle. Inevitably, since the rate of growth of the global money supply lags more and more behind the rising production of non-monetary commodities, at some point interest rates rise to a point where what Marx termed the "profit of enterprise" (total profit minus interest) is wiped out and the basic motive for capitalist production is destroyed.
This ends the boom phase of the industrial cycle and an overproduction crisis ensues. Production is cut back, massive layoffs are carried out, millions lose their homes through eviction or bankruptcy, and many companies go belly up. Prices (in gold terms) fall back to their underlying values and then below them as the crisis deepens. The crisis itself, along with the following depression phase of the cycle, lays the basis for an eventual recovery. (For more on the phases of the industrial cycle, see here.)
Applying theory to recent industrial production trends
Consulting firm Yardeni Research, Inc. published a "Global Economic Briefing" on industrial production, dated Oct. 31, 2016, that includes a series of fascinating charts. The first shows world industrial production (excluding construction) going back to the beginning of 1995 through August of this year. (click on chart for larger version)
This chart clearly shows the crisis-depression phase of 2001-2003 and the much deeper one of 2008-2010. The chart indicates that the global economy entered into what Marx termed the "average prosperity" phase of the industrial cycle in 2011, when industrial production exceeded the previous peak reached in 2008. Global industrial production has continued to rise up to the present, though at a slower rate in the past two years.
The next chart breaks down global industrial production by "advanced" versus "emerging" economies.
This revealing chart shows clearly that the advanced (mostly imperialist) countries have still not fully recovered from the 2008 crisis, and remain mired in the depression phase of the industrial cycle with production flat, at best, over the past several years. The emerging (mostly oppressed) countries, in contrast, had fully recovered by 2010 and continue to show a steady, though somewhat slowing, rise in industrial production. Beginning in 2010, these economies as a whole entered what Marx called the "average prosperity" phase of the industrial cycle.
Undoubtedly, a factor behind these contrasting trends has been the austerity policies implemented by virtually all the governments of the "advanced" countries following the massive bailouts of their biggest banks to stave off what otherwise would likely have been a complete collapse of the entire banking system. They had to implement such policies in a desperate attempt to reduce the huge debt load taken on by most of these governments—for the most part, it was not politically possible to raise taxes to finance the bailouts—leading to what became known as "the sovereign debt crisis," which hit several European countries like Greece especially hard.
The colonial revolution
A longer-term, more fundamental factor was the wave of national liberation struggles coming out of World War II . The U.S. attempted, with some success, to divert each of these struggles for independence from the old colonial empires into a neo-colonial relationship with the new global hegemon, with subservient client regimes in power.
However, beginning with the great Chinese Revolution of 1949, and subsequently the heroic and victorious struggle of the Vietnamese people, both having benefited from substantial material aid plus military protection from the then-existing, nuclear-armed Soviet Union, the previous industrial monopoly enjoyed by the imperialist countries was progressively undermined.
The economic development of China and Vietnam, and growing numbers of other "emerging" countries as a result of their own liberation struggles, then took off as sharpening competition forced imperialist monopoly corporations to export more and more of their realized surplus value in the form of capital (and jobs) to these countries. Neo-liberal "free-trade" policies and agreements were implemented to facilitate the process.
Though highly profitable for the imperialist monopolies, since wages and therefore labor costs were far lower and regulation far less in the emerging countries, the end result was progressive undermining of industry in the "advanced" economies—now termed "de-industrialization." The imperialists soon began to realize that the entire basis for their political, social and economic stability was coming undone.
The demise of the Soviet Union and East European socialist governments in 1989-1991 came at an opportune time for U.S. imperialism to attempt to reverse these trends.
A series of 'unending' wars against independent or semi-independent governments began with Yugoslavia and then extended to other developing countries including Iraq, Libya and now Syria—aimed at dismembering them and destroying any possibility of independent economic development. China and Russia as well as Iran, Brazil and Venezuela, and now apparently even Turkey, are on the target list for 'regime change' and dismemberment.
These trends demonstrate the progressive character of the national liberation struggles, even if, as in most cases, they ended up developing their economies on a capitalist basis. The trends also demonstrate the reactionary character of all the bloody, costly efforts by U.S. imperialism and its satellite imperialist allies to roll back these struggles and destroy any victories achieved.
China's dramatic rise
The following chart illustrates the dramatic rise of industrial production in China going back to 1997.
The rise has been steady and strong with the only pause in the upward movement occurring during the global Great Recession of 2007-2009. But even that was more a leveling off than a sharp contraction such as occurred in virtually all other countries.
For comparison, according to the Federal Reserve, during the 1920s U.S. industrial production rose by about 38 percent, though from the bottom of the sharp wartime-to-peacetime conversion crisis of 1920-1921, the increase was close to 100 percent. The comparison is relevant because the U.S. in this period played a similar role in the world economy as China has been playing in recent years.
Had the U.S. economy not been operating at close to capacity at the beginning of the 1920s owing to the demands of WWI, and had there been huge reserves of labor power in the U.S. comparable to the enormous peasant population that China could still draw on 10 years ago, and a similar amount of incoming foreign investment as China enjoyed as a result of its "opening up," it is likely the U.S. expansion in the 1920s would have been similar to what China has experienced in the past decade. It should also be noted that a mid-decade pause occurred during the "Roaring Twenties" in the U.S. similar to the 2007-2009 pause shown in the above chart that occurred in China.
That pause would likely have been an actual sharp, if brief, contraction if the Communist Party-led government had not resorted to drastic Keynesian-type deficit spending on major infrastructure projects. The CCP-led government mobilized major banks and other large state-owned enterprises to support the effort. No such policies were necessary in the U.S. to avoid a sharp mid-1920s downturn.
Also making the huge deficit-spending program possible was the nearly $2 trillion in reserves, mainly dollar-denominated U.S. Treasury notes and bonds, held by China's central bank as a result of the enormous trade surplus with the U.S over the preceding years. This ensured that the Chinese currency, the yuan, or RMB, would not go into freefall as a result. (China's dollar-denominated reserves now total more than $3 trillion.)
Stagnation in the U.S.
In sharp contrast to the chart of industrial production for rising China, the following chart shows industrial production over the same period for the leading imperialist power—the United States. The U.S. empire, though still immensely powerful, is in decline, just as the once immensely powerful British Empire had gone into irreversible decline by the 1920s.
As has been the case with the other "advanced economies," the trend of industrial production in the United States has been one of stagnation and then decline since late 2014. (The U.S. economy briefly entered the "average prosperity" phase of the industrial cycle in 2014 but then fell back.)
As previously explained, this trend is at least partly explained by the austerity policies implemented by governments in virtually all these countries, necessitated by their earlier bank bailouts, though the impact has been somewhat less severe in the U.S. than in the EU countries. These policies have mainly impacted social programs benefiting the working class, but military spending as been affected as well, though to a lesser extent.
The hope of the policymakers is that these policies have improved the financial position of the governments sufficiently to enable shifting from depending mainly on monetary policy ("quantitative easing") to force down interest rates and combat growing downside economic risks to relying more on "fiscal stimulus" (government deficit spending). The U.S. Federal Reserve began "tapering"—that is, leveling out and then cutting back—its unprecedented quantitative easing program in September 2014. The Fed has made clear that it intends to continue on the path to "normalizing" monetary policy going forward.
Next overproduction crisis
The hopes of the policymakers of indefinitely staving off another overproduction crisis will not be fulfilled. To understand why another crisis in the relatively near future—probably within the first term of President Trump—is inevitable, we need to determine not only where we are in the 7-11 year industrial cycle but also where we are in the long price cycle of the global capitalist economy, known as the Kondratieff cycle, which reflects longer-term trends in the economy.
My previous articles, "Signs of a renewed general crisis of capitalism" and "Further data on the role of the money commodity," explain the basis for the long price cycle in the swings of profitability of mining and refining the money commodity gold versus the general profitability of producing other (non-monetary) commodities. These articles also point out the correlation that has existed historically between sustained increases in gold production, along with cheapening of the money commodity in value terms, and relative capitalist prosperity. I will not repeat these explanations here but will examine in more detail the most recent trends in the longer- and shorter-term cycles, both of which are fundamentally determined by underlying, objective laws governing the economy, and only secondarily by government policy and who occupies the White House—even a Donald Trump.
In writing the above-mentioned articles, my assumption was that the dominant faction of the U.S. capitalist class did not want Donald Trump to win the presidency and would pull out all the stops to prevent him winning. That assumption proved to be true, though it turned out they didn't get their way. Finance capital's preferred candidate, Hillary Clinton, was so widely hated by great swathes of the electorate fed up with the status quo with which she is identified, even the abhorrent Trump, with his racist, misogynist, pseudo-populist demagogy, was able to prevail—if not in the popular vote, in the electoral college.
The long cycle
The first of the above-mentioned earlier articles includes a chart showing U.S. producer prices in gold terms going back to January 1913, which illustrates the long price cycle up to January 2015. Below is an updated chart showing U.S. producer prices in gold terms going back to January 1980 up through Sept. 30, 2016.
As this chart indicates, U.S. producer prices in gold terms have fallen rather sharply in the past year, though they have not yet dropped below the previous low reached in 2011. In any case, this confirms that the global economy has been weakening.
As I suggested in my previous articles, it is likely that another serious overproduction crisis will need to occur, possibly a super-crisis on the scale of 1930-1933 or worse, to lay the basis for a sustained long-term upturn in real prices comparable even to the period of the "Great Moderation" from the mid-1980s to 2001. Such a crisis would drive real prices (in terms of gold) down past the 2011 low point to a level where the profitability of gold mining and refining (due to greatly reduced costs of production) would exceed the general profitability of producing other (non-monetary) commodities. The result would be for capital—always seeking maximum profits—to flow out of non-monetary commodity production into greatly expanding the production of the money commodity gold. Sooner or later, barring a socialist revolution, runaway climate disaster or a nuclear holocaust, this would lay the basis for a new sustained period of rising real prices and relative capitalist prosperity on a global basis.
Fighting deflation
It is interesting to observe that the period of the Great Moderation is generally said to have extended to 2007-2008. But real prices, as shown in the producer price chart above, peaked in 2001 and then began a sustained decline. The initial drop in real prices resulted from the recession-depression of 2001-2004. But between 2004 and the beginning of the Great Recession, the monetary authorities and capitalist governments attempted to defeat the continuing deflationary trend in real prices by depreciating the U.S. dollar and other major currencies against gold to keep nominal prices stable or rising. The dollar price of gold soared during this period, reflecting that depreciation, which then forced the Federal Reserve to raise its policy (federal funds) interest rate sharply to avoid a run on the dollar and its collapse, along with the collapse of the U.S. empire that would surely follow. The Fed's shift in monetary policy is illustrated in the following chart.
Beginning after the recession-depression of 2001-2004 had run its course, the Federal Reserve kept its policy interest rate (red line) below the market-based three-month Treasury Bill rate (blue line), until mid-2005, when it was forced by the soaring dollar price of gold (reflecting depreciation of the dollar) to push the fed funds rate slightly above and then, by mid-2006, substantially above the rising market-based short-term interest rate. The soaring interest rates, partly caused by Federal Reserve tightening but more fundamentally by the industrial cycle entering its boom phase, soon caused the housing bubble to burst precipitating the Great Recession.
I should note here that the Great Recession, an overproduction crisis, was not primarily caused by the criminal behavior of bankers, hedge funds and other big speculators in the financial and real-estate markets—in short, by "Wall Street" or "greedy bankers"—as commonly claimed by commentators on both the populist/progressive left and on the proto-fascist, pseudo-populist, white-nationalist right.
For those on the far right, these are code words whose meaning goes back to the anti-Semitic propaganda of the 1930s, which blamed all the problems of the Depression on an "international Jewish bankers' conspiracy." Marxists should avoid such formulations because they are incorrect—though the big banks certainly play an important role in extending the period of overproduction through "overlending" (lending too much). The end of overlending by the banks and other creditors then precipitates the crisis, making it appear that the banks and not the capitalist system as a whole is the cause of the crisis. This illusion feeds reactionary prejudice and scapegoating and plays into the hands of the neo-fascist forces now on the rise.
Is more than a short-term upturn possible?
As shown on the above producer price chart, it appears that once again we have entered a period of falling real prices, which correspond to the decline in U.S. industrial production over the past year. Oil prices were hit especially hard, dropping from around $105 per barrel in mid-2014 to a low of about $30 per barrel early this year, then rebounding to around $45 per barrel recently.
The question now is, can increased fiscal stimulus (easing of some austerity measures, additional spending on infrastructure such as president-elect Trump has called for, and more war spending) combined with continued "normalization" of monetary policy, all now being actively considered by policymakers, bring about more than a short-term rise in industrial production and real prices?
Quite likely it will not, this side of a new overproduction crisis, which is coming due. At best, we can expect a rise lasting a few months or possibly a bit longer, followed by a new crash. Interest rates, both short-term and long-term, have been rising since late June, and since Trump's election have been rising dramatically. Any attempt to combine a tighter monetary policy with fiscal stimulus means a rapid rise in interest rates. Any substantial rise in industrial production will push rates up even faster. Experience shows that rapidly rising interest rates quickly end in recession.
Much depends on what happens with real prices in the coming period. If they continue or resume their fall as they did in the mid-2000s, the Federal Reserve will be forced to depreciate the dollar once again to fight deflation. The deflationary "mini" recession (relatively small contraction in industrial production) that began after the Federal Reserve started its "tapering" in 2014 bought some time but probably not much. Allowing the dollar to depreciate is extremely risky, since a run on the currency such as the one that occurred in 1979-1980, only stopped thanks to extreme tightening of credit by the Federal Reserve, could easily get out of hand.
New 'Great Moderation'?
On the other hand, it could be argued that we have seen the bottom of the long price cycle, and just like in the mid-1980s are about to embark on another Great Moderation-like period of rising real prices and relative capitalist prosperity. What is the prospect for that scenario repeating, as Trump and his supporters no doubt hope and expect?
As indicated in my previous article, gold production has indeed been expanding from the low point of the Great Recession (2009) through at least the early part of this year (2016). As I suggested, however, much of this rise was due to the extraordinary jump in gold production in China that started (after a several-year decline) in 2001 and continued through to the present. In addition to the sharp fall in real prices that began in 2001, boosting the profitability of gold mining, at least part of the rise in China's production likely represented a "catching up" after the extremely low gold production during the Mao years.
Still, that production counted toward expanding the global supply of the money commodity and together with the recent "mini-recession," could potentially be the basis of an upturn in the economy in coming months.
But will gold production continue to rise as it did in the 1980s and 1990s, a prerequisite for another period similar to the "Great Moderation"? Most experts in the gold mining and refining industry think not and in fact have been predicting that gold production will peak this year, just as it did around the year 2000. These predictions are partly based on the fact that new gold discoveries peaked in 1995, and 20 years are typically required to fully exploit such discoveries.
Any further rise in real prices that would result from a coming Trump-induced upturn would increase the likelihood of a near-term peak in gold production.
It is of course theoretically possible that some major new discovery will be made in the near future, or that a way is found to mine gold on an asteroid. However, such developments are highly unlikely in the period ahead. The profitable mining of gold from asteroids is decades in the future if it ever occurs at all. The most realistic prospect is for gold production to start declining soon if it hasn't already—until a serious new overproduction crisis lowers production costs to the point where an inflow of capital and rising gold production lay the basis for a new sustained rise in real prices and another extended period of relative capitalist prosperity.
A scientific, Marxist analysis of current trends of production and overproduction strongly suggests that some combination of a re-run of the late 1990s and mid-2000s boom phases of the industrial cycle followed by a major crash is now on the agenda. High tech is once again likely to take center stage, with speculative investment in real estate also playing a role, especially in Silicon Valley—the U.S. center of the current dot-com frenzy—where housing costs are already soaring.
The continuing rapid rise of industrial production in China, along with frenzied real-estate speculation there, will also be a major part of the mix leading to the next global overproduction crisis.
Excluded is the promise of Donald Trump to bring back the 1950s-1960s glory days of the U.S. economy—"make America great again." The objective laws governing the U.S. and global economies will not allow it. After a possible—most likely short—period of initial success, the next major crisis of overproduction will strike, and strike hard. Trump and his policies and promises—along with his proto-fascist allies—will be progressively discredited.
In the meantime, it is essential that the movements negatively impacted by the reactionary policies Trump will try to force through—with rhetorical but little real opposition from the Democratic Party politicians—unite in active, independent opposition, in the electoral arena and more importantly in the streets. In the aftermath of the coming crisis, a mass working-class party can quickly arise with the perspective of achieving a workers' government and beginning the construction of socialism—the ultimate solution.
*A fuller explanation of the regulatory role of the law of labor value and the money commodity gold that takes into account the capitalist drive to maximize profit in industries with differing ratios of "living" to "dead" labor, transforming labor values into what Marx termed "prices of production," is beyond the scope of this article but does not affect its basic conclusions.
capitalist crisis overproduction
Editor's note: This article was originally published on Liberation School on July 6, 2021 "In contradistinction to German fascism, which acts under anti-constitutional slogans, American fascism tries to portray itself as the custodian of the constitution and 'American...
Beyond the sprouts of capitalism: China's early capitalist development and contemporary socialist project
by Ken Hammond
This article was originally published at Monthly Review Online on March 03, 2021, and has been lightly revised with approval from the author. Introduction The contemporary political economy of the People's Republic of China, the nature of the Chinese system, has been...

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Q: Using web sockets in UWP background tasks I am trying to make a background task for a UWP app. The task should be triggered by packets from a web socket connection.
I have tested the web socket and it works as expected.
For the background task to work, according to the Microsoft tutorial on background networking (Network communications in the background), a ControlChannelTrigger must be instantiated and the channel.UsingTransport(socket) method must be called. Then socket.ConnectAsync(...) should be called.
However, when calling socket.ConnectAsync(...) after channel.UsingTransport(socket), the socket.ConnectAsync(...) method throws an exception with the following message.

Exception from HRESULT: 0x80072F75

When called without channel.UsingTransport(socket), the connection is established without problems.
In order to use the socket in a background task, I must establish the connection after calling channel.UsingTransport(socket).
Can anyone shed some light on why this error might be occurring?

A: Please don't install the IIS server on the same device and use localhost to connect the server. See network isolation topic. When using the server in official WebSocket sample , you can try to copy the server folder and its subfolder to another computer and run the server scripts, then you can connect the server with a IP address such as:
Server uri:  ws://xxx.xx.xx.xx/WebSocketSample/echowebsocket.ashx
Besides, please have a try to test the ControlChannelTrigger StreamWebSocket sample.
Also see the Note part in the sample:

When used with the supplied scripts, this Windows Store app sample communicates with another process (IIS server which is a desktop app) on the same machine over loopback for demonstration purposes only. A Windows Store app that communicates over loopback to another process that represents a Windows Store app is not allowed and such apps will not pass Store validation. For more information, see How to configure network isolation capabilities.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
An Unjust Suspicion è un cortometraggio muto del 1913 diretto da Christy Cabanne. Altre fonti citano un film dallo stesso titolo, uscito lo stesso anno e prodotto dalla Biograph di cui però non si conosce né il nome del regista né quello degli attori.

Trama

Produzione
Il film fu prodotto dalla Biograph Company.

Distribuzione
Distribuito dalla General Film Company, il film - un cortometraggio in una bobina - uscì nelle sale cinematografiche statunitensi il 13 settembre 1913.

Non si conoscono copie ancora esistenti della pellicola che viene considerata presumibilmente perduta.

Note

Voci correlate
Filmografia della Biograph Company

Collegamenti esterni

Cortometraggi drammatici

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


text:
Boeing's About-Face Reflects Growing Consensus on Need for Simulator Training
Boeing now recommends that 737 Max pilots receive simulator training before the troubled aircraft is returned to service. Advanced Training System's John Kearney applauds this move, noting that what is needed in the sky is just as needed on the highway.
(St. Petersburg, FL) March 9, 2020—The Boeing Company, in an apparent change of heart, is now recommending that pilots undergo simulator training before they resume flying the troubled 737 Max, which was grounded worldwide after a control software defect apparently caused two crashes that killed a total of 346 people.(1) John Kearney, CEO of Advanced Training Systems, says, "Boeing, which was originally resistant to simulator training for these pilots, is to be commended for recognizing the crucial importance of virtual-reality simulator training for situations in which mistakes can be fatal." Kearney, whose company is a leading designer and manufacturer of virtual simulators for driver training, among other applications, adds that simulator training is increasingly recognized—and adopted—as an essential training methodology.
Simulation Market Expanding
According to a new study from MarketsandMarkets, the worldwide simulation market is projected to grow at a combined annual growth rate of 4.4%, reaching $27.9 billion by 2025. The study covers simulator training and technology for civil and military aviation, driving, maritime vessel control, and other potentially dangerous environments.(2)
According to the 70-20-10 model of learning and development, which was developed in the 1980s by the Center for Creative Leadership and has been adopted by countless organizations since, trainees developing a skill learn 10% of what they need to know from classroom teaching, 20% from interaction with others, and 70% from direct experience.(3)
Recent studies demonstrate that in high-consequence industries, where mistakes can be fatal, simulation makes it possible to expose trainees to virtually any situation imaginable, without risk to themselves, to others, or to their surroundings.(4)
High-Consequence Industries at Risk
Trucking, Kearney notes, is a high-consequence industry. In 2017, the last year for which statistics are available, 4,761 people were killed in the United States in crashes involving large trucks, a 9.0% increase from the year before. Of these fatalities, 18% were occupants of large trucks, 10% were nonoccupants (pedestrians, bicyclists, etc.), and 72% were occupants of other vehicles.(5)
Like the pilots who will eventually be in charge of the 737 Max when it returns to service, big-rig truck drivers hold the lives of others in their hands. Also, like airline pilots—and ship's captains, and refinery and power plant operators, and workers in other high-consequence industries—truck drivers need to learn how to deal with the unexpected before it happens.
Simulation is the only safe way to do that, and, says Kearney, should be a required part of commercial driver's license training. "We can't have someone run out in front of an actual truck and force the driver to slam on his brakes," he says, "but we can in VR; we can't have a trainee hit a patch of ice and go into a skid in an actual truck, but we can in VR. For the good of the drivers, the industry, and the public, it needs to be a part of every trucker's training."
Advanced Training Systems (ATS) is a technology and engineering firm that has revolutionized the design and manufacture of high-tech simulator systems to improve training for operators of all types of motor-powered vehicles. ATS, the holder of multiple patents in its field, is dedicated to providing cutting-edge adaptive training at an affordable cost to all involved in the transportation industry, resulting in more qualified drivers/operators and safer streets. For more information, visit www.atstrainingsystems.com
LeBeau, Phil, and Josephs, Leslie, "Boeing recommends simulator training for 737 Max, which could cause additional delays," CNBC, January 7, 2020, cnbc.com/2020/01/07/boeing-recommends-simulator-training-for-737-max-pilots-posing-additional-delays.html
Daigle, Lisa, "Military-training segment of simulator market to grow at fast clip to 2025, study says," Military Embedded Systems, February 10 2020, mil-embedded.com/news/military-training-segment-of-simulator-market-to-grow-at-fast-clip-to-2025-study-says/
"The 70-20-10 Model for Learning and Development," Training Industry, January 28, 2014, trainingindustry.com/wiki/content-development/the-702010-model-for-learning-and-development/
Wentworth, David, "The Impact and Potential of Virtual Reality Training in High-Consequence Industries." Training Magazine, January 2018, trainingmag.com/impact-and-potential-virtual-reality-training-high-consequence-industries/
"Traffic Safety Facts: Large Trucks," National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, January 2019, crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812663
[email protected]tems.com


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Q: Why does atmospheric drag speed up satellites? I've read that old satellites slowly lose altitude when encountering the very thin atmosphere, and strangely enough they speed up. My theory is that the work done by the drag force is insignificant in comparison to the whole energy of the orbiter, $$ E = -\frac{GmM}{2r} $$ so it essentially pushes it to a lower orbit while mostly conserving the total energy. This would explain why it speeds up, but I can't quite visualize how a force that acts tangentially to the path can produce radial deviations .

A:
I can't quite visualize how a force that acts tangentially to the path can produce radial deviations.

Consider a satellite orbiting the earth on a circular orbit.
If there would be no air drag, then
the attractive gravitational force ($F_g=-\frac{GMm}{r}$) and
the repulsive centrifugal force ($F_c=mr\dot{\phi}^2$) would perfectly balance.
And hence the radius $r$ stays constant, giving a circular orbit.
Now add some air drag. The drag force is acting horizontally.
That means that the angular speed ($\dot{\phi}$), and hence
the centrifugal force ($F_c=mr\dot{\phi}^2$) will decrease.
This destroys the balance between centrifugal force
and gravitational force, so that there is now a small
net force pointing down towards the earth.


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Illinois' Only Crosstown Series
When Major League Baseball held its first World Series in 1903, the league was made up of 16 teams all concentrated in the northeastern quarter of the nation. Five cities were home to multiple teams, and over the years some of the greatest World Series moments came from cross-town series: the hapless St. Louis Browns' one taste of success, winning the American League pennant in 1944 (before being swept by the Cardinals in the Series), the Brooklyn Dodgers finally breaking through and winning a title in 1955, Don Larsen's perfect game for the Yankees the following year.
But MLB's very first crosstown series happened right here in Illinois in 1906, when the White Sox bested the Cubs in six games.
The 1906 championship was to be MLB's third World Series, and the first one played west of the Appalachians. It featured a matchup between the heavily-favored Cubs, who had dominated the National League by winning an MLB record 116 games that year, and the so-called "Hitless Wonder" White Sox, who had managed to grab the American League pennant despite having the lowest batting average in the league.
Led by Hall of Fame player-manager Frank Chance, the Cubs had blazed into the World Series in 1906, taking the National League pennant by 20 games over the second place Giants, the defending world champions. Cubs hitters had slugged 20 home runs that year; second only to the Brooklyn Dodgers; in a powerless age that is now known as the "Dead Ball Era" of baseball history. Third baseman Harry Steinfeldt who batted .327 that year with three home runs, was the team's top hitter along with catcher Johnny Kling (.312) and Chance (.319). Outfielder Frank Schulte swatted seven home runs to lead the team.
On the mound, another future Hall of Famer, Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown put up an astounding 26-6 record that year, with a microscopic 1.04 earned run average. Jack Pfeister also won 20 games for the Cubs in 1906.
Mordecai Brown
The White Sox, meanwhile, had endured a tougher road to the Series. They had limped into June at 15-19. Still nine games out of first place in late July, the Sox had suddenly gotten hot: rattling off a 19-game winning streak in August to grab command of the top spot in the standings. But they slipped back into second place in September, and did not clinch the pennant until the final week of the season.
Second baseman Frank Isbell hit a respectable .279, and shortstop George Davis trailed slightly behind at .277, but they were the leading hitters on a team which collectively batted .230 for the season. The Sox were last in the American League in batting average, hits, home runs, slugging percentage and total bases.
The Series opened amidst snow flurries on October 9 in front of 12,693 fans crammed into the wooden grandstand at the Cubs' park: West Side Grounds at Polk and Wolcott. The Cubs started their ace, Brown, against the White Sox's 20-game winner Nick Altrock. Both started strong, but the Sox broke through first, putting a run on the board in the 5th inning when third baseman George Rohe tripled and scored on an error. The Sox added an insurance run in the 6th and made it hold up after the Cubs plated one in the bottom of the inning on a wild pitch. The Sox held on for a 2-1 win and the early Series lead.
The Cubs' bats woke up in a big way in the second game, played at the home of the Sox, South Side Park on 39th Street (now Pershing Road) between Wentworth and Princeton. In front of 12,595 fans, the Cubs scored three runs in the top of the 2nd and cruised to a 7-1 win over Doc White and the Sox. Steinfeldt went 3-for-3 and shortstop Joe Tinker added a pair of hits to complement winning pitcher Ed Ruelbach's one-hitter as the Cubs evened the Series.
Over the next two days the Series continued to switch back and forth between the two home ballparks, as the teams traded victories. The Sox took Game 3 behind 12 strikeouts from winning pitcher Big Ed Walsh and a bases-loaded triple by Rohe to score all three runs in a 3-0 win. The next day, Brown evened his record and the Series as the Cubs took a 1-0 win with a seventh inning RBI single by Johnny Evers.
Back at the Cubs' West Side Grounds the two teams played a wild Game 5, with the Sox coming out on top again 8-6, the fifth consecutive Series game won by the visiting team. The Saturday afternoon game drew the Series' largest crowd: 23,257. Isbell went 4-for-5; all doubles; and Davis drove in three runs and stole home plate for the Sox. The Cubs were led by Schulte's three hits, but fell short in a game which included six White Sox errors and combined ten walks.
Facing elimination on Sunday afternoon, the Cubs traveled back to the south side for Game 6. Chance opted to start his ace, Brown, even though he had pitched a complete game on Friday. It proved to be a poor decision, as the Sox hung seven runs on Brown in the first two innings en route to an 8-3 win and six-game Series victory. Right fielder Ed Hahn; who had batted just .227 on the season for the Sox after coming over from the Yankees; had four hits and scored two runs.
The White Sox were World Champions, winners of the first Crosstown World Series in history. The "hitless wonders" had held to form, batting only .198 for the six games, but they got the hits when they needed them, and their pitching held the Cubs juggernaut to a Series average of just .196.
West Side Park during the 1906 World Series
As the Sox celebrated their first world championship, the Cubs prepared for next year. In 1907 they would sweep the Detroit Tigers to win their first title. They topped Detroit again the next season to become MLB's first back-to-back world champions. On the south side, the Sox waited a full decade before returning to the Series, winning their second title in 1917 over the Giants.
After that, as Illinois baseball fans know well, a long wait ensued. White Sox fans suffered the trauma of the Black Sox scandal of 1919, going without a pennant until 1959 and a world title until 2005. The Cubs won seven more pennants between 1909 and 1945, but failed each time to bring home another World Series trophy. Cursed by billy goats and black cats, Cub fans waited until 2016 for their celebration. The two Chicago teams never again met in the post-season, and only once, 2008, were they both playoff teams in the same year.
The ballparks that hosted the 1906 Series did not last long. The White Sox moved into a new south side park in 1910, one designed by architect Zachary Taylor Davis. They stayed for 80 years before moving across the street. In 1914 Davis also designed a park on the north side for the Chicago Whales of the Federal League, but when that team and league folded a couple of years later, the Cubs moved in. They are still there.
Six players from the 1906 Series were eventually inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame: Davis and Walsh from the Sox; Brown, Tinker, Evers and Chance from the Cubs.
The game and the Series have changed dramatically since 1906. Pitchers rarely throw complete games in the World Series any more, and World Series day games on natural grass in front of 12,000 spectators sitting in wooden grandstands are a thing of the past too. But one thing that has endured through the years is the truth of former Sox and Cubs' broadcaster Harry Caray's observation: "You can't beat fun at the old ballpark."
In the 1906 World Series; for the first, and thus far only time in history; all the fun was had right here in Illinois.
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