If you've lived in the Northeast, especially New York state, you're probably familiar with the "tick check": a head to toe inspection for ticks after spending time outside. To many, however, finding a tick embedded in their skin can be alarming, and sometimes with good reason.
First discovered in the early 1970's, in Lyme, Connecticut, Lyme's disease has since been reported in fifteen states within three regions: Maine to Maryland, Wisconsin and Minnesota, and as far West as Northern California and Oregon.
This infection is caused by the transmission of the Borrelia budgodorferi organism to humans by way of an infected Ixode tick bite. Research has shown that species of Ixode ticks vary within geographic regions and due to an abundance of hosts such as deer and white-footed mice, the Ixode dammini species has succeeded in forming an explosive tick population along the Eastern seaboard.
Why the B. burgdorferi organism causes Lyme's disease is not clear, but it is believed to trigger an over active immune response, thus causing inflammation and tissue damage.
Typically, symptoms occur following a tick bite and progress in three stages. Stage 1 includes fever, headache, and flu-like symptoms with a characteristic bright-red circular rash called erythema migrans, at the site of the tick bite. Stage 2 may include signs of inflammation of the heart and nervous system, severe headache, neck pain, and facial paralysis, while arthritis symptoms, especially in the knees, marks Stage 3.
An ELISA blood test, for Lyme's, is usually ordered to determine the presence of antibodies to B. burgdorferi. If the ELISA test is positive and the patient's clinical picture is suspicious, a specific B. burgdorferi antibody detector test called a Western Blot will be performed for diagnosis confirmation.
In order to prevent complications such as arthritis and neurological disorders, early detection and antibiotic treatment is crucial. Unfortunately, some patients with Lyme's disease continue to experience symptoms such as headache, cognitive difficulties, chronic fatigue, and persistent muscle and joint pain for months to even years, after the organism has been eliminated through early antibiotic treatment.
Don't push the panic button yet. Statistically proven, it isn't that easy to contract Lyme's disease: the tick must carry the B. burgdorferi and remain embedded for at least 36 to 48 hours to spread infection. And while up to 40% of ticks are infected, only about 1 to 3% of tick bites will result is Lyme's disease.
So, if you find an embedded tick, remove it carefully, making sure you both the body and head are removed, and cleanse the area thoroughly. Simple precautions such as using DEET insect repellent, wearing long sleeves, long pants and socks when outdoors in affected areas, can be taken to prevent ticks for finding you.
Interestingly, many other activities can cause tennis or golfers' elbow: bowling, excessive writing or wrapping, and repeated throwing, such as baseballs and Frisbees.
Initial treatment for both tennis and golfer's elbow should include a combination of NSAIDS and physical therapy, along with local hot and cold pack applications, counter braces, and technique instruction. Acute cases can even be resolved after a corticosteroid injection into the affected tendon. Finally, repetitive activity that may aggravate your condition should be, if not avoided, then at least decreased.
You can swing and putt your way back on the court and green. All you need is to do like the pros: warm-up, strengthen and use your muscles wisely. It's all part of their technique.


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Presently, greater than thirty U.S. states control the residence inspection sector in some type  whereas in Canada only Alberta as well as British Goose Creek have carried out government guideline. The province of Goose Creek is presently going through the governing procedure to certify Home Inspectors because province.
What your customers really think about your how to sell your house without an agent Goose Creek?
Investing In Real Estate Vs Supplies Something Ive noticed concerning real estate investors is that a lot of us have fallen short in some way. However genuinely effective capitalists fall short set, and don't let their shortcomings quit them from reaching their goals.
Purchasing A Residence From State First, some background: Home buyers who obtain a mortgage are typically advisedto taken down a minimum of 20% of the rate of the house. With the nationwide mean home price hovering around$240,900, that winds up being$48,180. Ouch!Yetan frustrating 69% of Americans have less than $1,000 in savings, according to a recent study by GOBankingRates.com. To these individuals, purchasing a house could seem woefully unreachable.
Homeownership Aid The Goose Creek-Dade Economic Campaigning for Depend on Homeownership Support Program is developed to deal with the requirement of low/moderate income families in Goose Creek-Dade Region by offering down payment and also closing expenses support to buy their first house.
Hard/Private Money Lenders: The most popular course of action when funding realty take care of no money down is via the use of exclusive or hard cash lending institutions. These fundings are not offered from banks, but rather companies and people targeted at funding financial investments for a return. In addition, these loans are normally comprised with their own set of requirements, which additionally consist of extra charges and higher rate of interest to handle. When using these sorts of loan providers, a good rule of thumb is to find homes that can be acquired at 50 cents on the dollar.
Instantly after the house strikes the marketplace, there need to go to the very least a few consultations for provings. It might indicate that local brokers believe the house is overpriced and also for that reason aren't showing it to their clients if there typically aren't. Real estate professionals suggest that after a month, if there is really restricted rate of interest in the house, it's not far too late to minimize the cost, yet it is very important to act swiftly in order to maintain some rate of interest.
You did it! You obtained your mortgage approval and also youre ready to schedule your closing date. Now is the time to comply with up as well as make sure it obtains done if there is anything the vendor concurred to do prior to closing.
There specify things that must be covered in most states, Brown discussed. The client doesn't have much recourse other compared to [those products are all covered to] create a poor review or hire another inspector for a various viewpoint.
What To Offer On A House That Requirements Work In enhancement in ordering to help you recognize whether your area is currently experiencing a customer's market or a seller's market, this number is the most clear-cut, mathematical technique of predicting what does it cost? over (or under) the asking cost a home including your residence ought to cost. Take the typical LP: SP proportion from the three to five CMA compensations that are one of the most just like the residential or commercial property you're thinking about, as well as multiply the ratio by the market price on your property. So, if the typical LP: SP ratio of your compensations is 105 percent, and your future house is detailed at $400,000, then you would increase both to predict the price at which "your" residence is most likely to sell as well as, maybe also your deal price: $400,000 x 105 percent = $420,000.
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As quickly as it came in, the first month of the year has gone by in a blur. These first 31 days of 2012 have been absolutely refreshing. I have a new outlook on life and my writing. It is an awesome feeling.
My pen has spent more time on paper in the past month than in the past year. I'm not 100% proud of that, but I'm being honest with myself.
I've spent a lot of time looking for inspiration. You know, things to keep me on my toes and ready to go.
Quotes like these have pushed me through these first 31 days and have given me so much inspiration. They motivate me to continue to put words down on paper.
Another inspiration of mine is a pretty simple one – reading. Before I sit down to work on my poems, I read poetry. Not my own of course.
Currently, I'm reading "Good Poems for Hard Times". The book features several different poets with several different styles. It's helped me flow better with my own words.
While both of those types of inspiration are wonderful, my main inspiration comes in the form of people. My 4 little grown people (my children) keep me smiling and wanting to push forward. Aside from them I have a few supportive friends and of course, all of my readers. I feel an obligation to write as much as I can before my eyes close every night.
Even though its only been 31 days in this year thus far, I have decided that this is my year to capitalize. And by capitalize I mean heading towards my ultimate goal of being prolific. It's just the right thing to do.
So, on to the next month. My hope – that it's as inspirational as the first 31.


text:
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Possible Hands In Poker
Posted on 20.09.2019 20.09.2019 by Shakakazahn
Possible Hands In Poker Introduction to Poker - How to Play Basics
This is the gold standard in poker. Almost as good as a Royal, but not quite, a. Also known as quads. Three of a Kind. cichlidenvereniging.nl › poker-hand-rankings.
Three of a Kind. Also known as quads. Having knowledge of basic probabilities helps you understand the fundamentals of poker better - no The next chart shows you all possible Ax starting hands. If your five best five Petrovo are the same as another player's best five cards you split the pot. Four of a Kind The four of a kind is just that: four of any one card rank. A good way to think about it is to look at your hand placing your cards high to low. Hot Wetten Deutschland Georgien Posts: Allow for removal by moderators, and thoughts about future…. There are exactly 2, different Slots Games Free stud poker hands possible. Three of a Kind The three of a kind is a simply 3 Dragon Online any one card Play Texas Holdem Online Against Computer. New post formatting. Sign up or log in Sign up using Google. So be sure to Surebet a clear strategy of how to play your pocket pairs.
Possible Hands In Poker Straight Flush
New post formatting. A straight flush is any combination of five cards in sequence with the same suit. We Jalapenjos suited cards and automatically we want to play Just Cause Xbox 360 Cheats suited. The odds of getting this combination is one in every French Ligue Scores, A Flush in spades is as good as a flush in any other suit, only the ranks of the cards matter. Flush 5 suited cards. A Royal Flush is the best possible poker hand and of course always beats any other flush. Does straight beat a full house? Every common poker. Having knowledge of basic probabilities helps you understand the fundamentals of poker better - no The next chart shows you all possible Ax starting hands. Each player in a basic game of poker is given five cards to make their hand. There are virtually an unlimited number of hands possible. cichlidenvereniging.nl › poker › hands. The introduction to poker including hand rankings and the basics of how to play. of the hand, you will play the highest ranking five card combination possible. Each straight is ranked by the rank of its highest-ranking card. The symbol in the middle of the formula is the so called Binomial Coefficient. In that case, spades is the highest suit. There are flops which will not give you a Kleine Sim Karte. When you're betting, it's good to remember what hands are most the most common. Download : Draws and outs on the flop and turnPDF.
Possible Hands In Poker Video
Top 5 Poker Moments in History If they are also identical, the player with the highest kicker wins. This is 3 of one card and 2 of another. There are variants to the game where players receive more than five cards and players have community cards. If two go head-to-head, the high card French Ligue 1 Top Scorer. Straight 5 cards in a row. Any flush beats any straight. The straight might be an A-Q-J or it might be the A, or some combination in between. Odds Number Oddset Top Wette Spielplan hands to play so get the hand. Four of a Kind. The best five cards of a hand are a simple formula of what the best five cards in your hand are. If you have an ace, you would hold aces high.
Possible Hands In Poker - Razz Poker Sites
Notice that the hand also contains three aces, but they do not play. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience. The :1 counts. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website. In other words no particular flush is better than another particular flush of the same five cards because one is of a particular suit. Is there a kicker on a straight?
It's hard to draw a four of a kind which makes it a very good hand. Three of a kind combined with a pair e.
Any five cards of the same suit, but not in sequence e. Five cards in sequence, but not in the same suit e. Three cards of the same value e.
While this is a lower ranking hand, it's more commonly pulled than flushes or full houses. When you're betting, it's good to remember what hands are most the most common.
Naming conventions in poker are pretty easy, for example, two separate pairs e. Two cards of the same value are known as a pair e.
If a Poker hand contains none of the above combinations, it's valued by the highest card in it. Whether you're playing for real money or not, poker is by nature a game of gambling.
With each hand, you must decide if you're going to bet or not. You can fold at any point before being told to show your cards.
If you fold, you lose any chance of winning the pot. After each player is dealt their cards, then the bluffing begins. Other players will be studying your body language trying to figure out your hand.
It's up to you to decide what emotions you want to portray. If you have a weaker hand, it might be a good idea to act overconfident and cocky in an attempt to get the other players to fold.
It's basically an ace-high straight flush. If two players get a straight flush, the hand with the highest-ranking card wins.
A straight flush beats four of a kind. If two players have a four of a kind, the hand with the highest-ranking four of a kind wins. If two players have the same four of a kind, the winner will be the player with the highest kicker card.
A four of a kind beats a full house. If two players have a full house, the person with the highest triplet wins. If the triplet is the same, the person with the highest pair wins.
A full house beats a flush. Also called a full boat, a flush is any hand where all five cards are of the same suit. They do not need to be in sequential order.
A flush is ranked first by the highest card, then by the second highest card, and so on. A flush beats a straight. A straight is a hand that contains five cards in sequential rank, but they can be of any suit.
If two players have a straight, the player with the highest-ranking card wins. A straight beats a three of a kind. If two players have a three of a kind, the player with the highest-ranking three of a kind wins.
A three of a kind beats a two pair. If two players have a two-pair, the player with the highest-ranking pairs win.
For example, a pair of queens and a pair of fives would beat a pair of threes and a pair of fives. If one pair is the same, the winner is determined by the second pair.
If both pairs are the same, the winner of the hand is determined by the kicker. A two pair beats a one pair. If both players have a one pair, the player with the highest-ranking pair wins.
If both pairs are the same, the player with the highest-ranking kicker wins. A one pair only beats a high card.
A high card means you haven't got any of the previous hands, and so your hand will be determined by the single highest-ranking card you have.
The best hand in poker is a Royal Flush. It's made up of an ace, king, queen, jack and 10 in the same suit.
You can see the poker hand rankings above. A one pair beats a high card, a two pair beats a one pair, a three of a kind beats a two pair, a straight beats a three of a kind, a flush beats a straight, a full house beats a flush, a four of a kind beats a full house, a straight flush beats a four or a kind, a royal flush beats a straight flush.
Nothing beats a royal flush. You can beat a straight with a flush, full house, four of a kind, straight flush and royal flush.
A full house is a strong hand, but you can beat it with a four of a kind, straight flush and royal flush. A full house, four of a kind, straight flush and royal flush all beat a flush.
There is no highest suit in poker. They are all ranked equally. Remember Me? Forgot Password? View larger. Five cards, all in one suit, but not in numerical order.
Five cards in numerical order, but not of the same suit. Two different pairings or sets of the same card in one hand.
Video Tutorial: Poker Hand Rankings. Watch now. Pocket Aces. Pocket Kings. Pocket Queens. Ace-King Suited. Pocket Jacks. Pocket Tens.
Ace-Queen Suited. Ace-King Offsuit. Ace-Jack Suited. King-Queen Suited. Other Nicknames: Marriage. Club The club depicts a three-leaf and corresponds to the acorns in a German deck.
Diamond The diamond in a French deck corresponds to bells in a German deck of cards. Heart You'll find hearts in both German and French playing card sets.
Spade The spade symbolises a medieval weapon and corresponds to leaves in a German set. Royal Flush. Straight Flush. Four of a kind.
Keep it nearby when playing so that you Game World Of Goo know the ranking of hands from best to worst. The are four combinations of ace-king-suited and 12 combinations of ace-king offsuit. What's the highest suit in poker? Pocket Aces. Stadion Neapel Kings, also known as 'cowboys', are a favourite against any hand except aces. In that case, spades is the highest suit.
The Poker Hand Hierarchy
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Students at Chestnut Street School learned about the interdependence between plants and animals through the Wildlife Conservation Society's "Butterfly Boogie" program, delivered by Wildlife Theater, on May 19.
According to the Wildlife Conservation Society's website, Wildlife Theater is the WCS's educational outreach program that uses theater to teach young people about wild animals and places, helping to build the next generation of conservationists.
During the theatrical performance, students learned about the physical characteristics common to all insects, which include a head, abdomen, thorax, six legs, antennae and an exoskeleton. They also learned that insects are an essential part of the food chain in that they eat rotten fruits and vegetables and pollinate plants.
The young students also "traveled" 3,000 miles with the butterfly-themed show "The Tale of Flutterby and Piggle." In this adventure, they learned about monarch butterflies, their metamorphosis and their diet of milkweed plants.
The district thanks the PTA for sponsoring this educational assembly that allowed students to further explore the world around them.


text:
Kerry Home J Kerry J Dean Dean Appendix
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please contact contact@kerryjdean.com
Kerry's vision was influenced by several years of travelling, finally settling on London as her home. She studied at London College of Printing, now part of University of the Arts, and began working in documentary and landscape photography.
Her initial body of work and first solo exhibition "The Emptiness of a Land with no Fences" was shown at the Muse Gallery London, showcasing a series of images taken in Mongolia. The work went on to be shown as part of a "Winter notes on Summer impressions" at the Six Degrees Gallery London, and then also shown at The Front View Gallery.
Since her first visit in 2005 Kerry has returned to Mongolia on several occasions, in 2015 to direct a short film documenting the 'Fair' cashmere project, which supports the livelihoods of nomadic herding communities in remote regions of The Gobi desert.
Her recent body of work 'Observations and Orchestrations' was shot between 2015-2018, which was nominated for the prestigious Hyères Festival Grand Prix 2019, and has been exhibited internationally. In 2020 work from the series will be published and exhibited.
Moving into exploring fashion, she became interested in bridging the gap between fashion and her exhibition work, which led her to work on a number of projects that highlight the need for greater social and environmental awareness in the fashion industry.
Kerry's work is often shot in the lonely isolation of remote locations, where both her subjects and her distinct use of colour, texture and light, oscilate between belonging and incongruity.
All images © Kerry Dean / Kerry J Dean 2019


Help the piggies hide from the wolf. Let the 3 piggies play outside, but if you spot the wolf can you get the piggies safely inside their houses? Three Little Piggies is a perfect brain game for young children.
Contents: 3 big puzzle pieces that are easy to hold, 3 pigs. 1 wolf, story book with images and booklet with 48 challenges (24 with the wolf and 24 without).
Ages: 3 - 6 years.


text:
BACK TO SPORT MANITOBA
Dauphin 2020
Get ready for a Summer
Games to remember!
A meeting of Manitoba's young athletic talent in beautiful Dauphin
Get involved in the Games!
The City of Dauphin is thrilled to be hosting the 2020 Manitoba Games powered by Manitoba Hydro. From August 9-15, 2020, the Host Committee aims to put on an event Manitoba's young athletes will remember forever. We are looking for upwards of 800 volunteers to host the Games. Volunteer areas include Athlete Services, Commmunications & Awareness, Finance, Hospitality, Operations, Sport Operations, and Volunteer Management.
First-time volunteer?
If you'd like to be involved with the Manitoba Games for the first time, we'd love for you to register to be a volunteer.
Returning volunteer?
if you're already a registered volunteer and would like to be a part of the 2020 Games, you can log back in.
The definition of a
vibrant community
Learn more about your 2020 host city
Dauphin is a vibrant and friendly city nestled between Manitoba's famed Riding Mountain National Park, and a short drive to the pristine Duck Mountains. Surrounded by rich farmland, boreal forests, lakes, and meandering rivers, Dauphin offers many unique opportunities for recreation and an active lifestyle. The City of Dauphin boasts excellent recreation facilities including first class arenas, an expansive outdoor sportsplex, upgraded school facilities, aquatic centre, and many options for training for a variety of sports locally.
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Visitor maps and getting around town.
Festivals, outdoor fun, and culture.
Campgrounds, hotels, motels, B&B, and more.
Athletic excellence across a range of sports
Learn more about the disciplines involved in this year's Summer Games
1,500 athletes from across the province will compete in the 2020 Manitoba Games powered by Manitoba Hydro in Dauphin from August 9 – 15.
The following sports will be a part of the games:
Visit the appropriate Provincial Sport Organization website for more information on a particular sport related to the 2020 Games.
For a detailed list of the sports, age categories and phases of the Games, please click the Sport Details link below.
Sport details
A comprehensive look into the eligibility criteria for the Games
Before each Games, we evaluate our eligibility criteria to ensure we're best representing the diverse range of competitive athletes and sports across our province. This means laying out a clear set of guidelines to oversee who can participate in the Games, as well as how and why we make our decisions.
A network of people and programs unified by sport
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A presenting sponsor of the Manitoba Games, Manitoba's Credit Unions are dedicated to helping people and strengthening our communities by donating time, money, and resources to a variety of causes that help make our province a great place to live.
Team Toba rower soaking it all in
As a young teen, Abby Dent was looking to...
As a young teen, Abby Dent was looking to get involved in another sport. The all-round athlete already played hockey and volleyball but was interested in trying something totally new. Rowing Canada came to her school and did some basic testing with students in gym class. They took note of Dent's height and then her…


Mass will also be held as usual at 8 AM on Friday, December 8th.
All those who wish, are invited to receive the sacrament of the Anointing of the Sick at any of the masses on the weekend of December 9th/10th. If you know of someone who would benefit from this sacrament, please invite them to worship with us that weekend.
Priests will be available for individual confession. Confessions are also heard from 4 - 4:30 pm every Saturday in the Reconciliation Room in the Chapel.


The price of a NEW Franchise is based on the territory you wish to purchase, and prices vary from $30,000 to $35,000 (plus the car). You will purchase or lease a sign written, fit-for-purpose car to provide the service. Our franchise is run from home so has low start-up costs and low overheads.
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text:
import {
  CDK_TREE_NODE_OUTLET_NODE,
  CdkNestedTreeNode,
  CdkTree,
  CdkTreeNode,
  CdkTreeNodeDef,
} from '@angular/cdk/tree';
import {
  AfterContentInit,
  Attribute,
  Directive,
  DoCheck,
  ElementRef,
  Input,
  IterableDiffers,
  OnDestroy, OnInit,
} from '@angular/core';
import {
  CanDisable,
  CanDisableCtor,
  HasTabIndex,
  HasTabIndexCtor,
  mixinDisabled,
  mixinTabIndex,
} from '@angular/material/core';
import {BooleanInput, coerceBooleanProperty, NumberInput} from '@angular/cdk/coercion';

const _MatTreeNodeMixinBase: HasTabIndexCtor & CanDisableCtor & typeof CdkTreeNode =
    mixinTabIndex(mixinDisabled(CdkTreeNode));

/**
 * Wrapper for the CdkTree node with Material design styles.
 */
@Directive({
  selector: 'mat-tree-node',
  exportAs: 'matTreeNode',
  inputs: ['role', 'disabled', 'tabIndex'],
  providers: [{provide: CdkTreeNode, useExisting: MatTreeNode}]
})
export class MatTreeNode<T, K = T> extends _MatTreeNodeMixinBase<T, K>
    implements CanDisable, DoCheck, HasTabIndex, OnInit, OnDestroy {

  constructor(protected _elementRef: ElementRef<HTMLElement>,
              protected _tree: CdkTree<T, K>,
              @Attribute('tabindex') tabIndex: string) {
    super(_elementRef, _tree);

    this.tabIndex = Number(tabIndex) || 0;
    // The classes are directly added here instead of in the host property because classes on
    // the host property are not inherited with View Engine. It is not set as a @HostBinding because
    // it is not set by the time it's children nodes try to read the class from it.
    // TODO: move to host after View Engine deprecation
    this._elementRef.nativeElement.classList.add('mat-tree-node');
  }

  // This is a workaround for https://github.com/angular/angular/issues/23091
  // In aot mode, the lifecycle hooks from parent class are not called.
  ngOnInit() {
    super.ngOnInit();
  }

  ngDoCheck() {
    super.ngDoCheck();
  }

  ngOnDestroy() {
    super.ngOnDestroy();
  }

  static ngAcceptInputType_disabled: BooleanInput;
  static ngAcceptInputType_tabIndex: NumberInput;
}

/**
 * Wrapper for the CdkTree node definition with Material design styles.
 * Captures the node's template and a when predicate that describes when this node should be used.
 */
@Directive({
  selector: '[matTreeNodeDef]',
  inputs: [
    'when: matTreeNodeDefWhen'
  ],
  providers: [{provide: CdkTreeNodeDef, useExisting: MatTreeNodeDef}]
})
export class MatTreeNodeDef<T> extends CdkTreeNodeDef<T> {
  @Input('matTreeNode') data: T;
}

/**
 * Wrapper for the CdkTree nested node with Material design styles.
 */
@Directive({
  selector: 'mat-nested-tree-node',
  exportAs: 'matNestedTreeNode',
  inputs: ['role', 'disabled', 'tabIndex'],
  providers: [
    {provide: CdkNestedTreeNode, useExisting: MatNestedTreeNode},
    {provide: CdkTreeNode, useExisting: MatNestedTreeNode},
    {provide: CDK_TREE_NODE_OUTLET_NODE, useExisting: MatNestedTreeNode}
  ]
})
export class MatNestedTreeNode<T, K = T> extends CdkNestedTreeNode<T, K>
    implements AfterContentInit, DoCheck, OnDestroy, OnInit {
  @Input('matNestedTreeNode') node: T;

  /** Whether the node is disabled. */
  @Input()
  get disabled() { return this._disabled; }
  set disabled(value: any) { this._disabled = coerceBooleanProperty(value); }
  private _disabled = false;

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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
On the Treasury's Curious Denial That Geithner Blocked Deal on Irish Debt
This is getting interesting. The US Treasury has roused itself to issue a narrow denial of an op-ed in the Irish Times by one of Ireland's most highly respected economists (by virtue of his having predicted a very severe housing crash), Morgan Kelly. To recap briefly, Kelly said that the IMF was willing last November to haircut €30 billion of unguaranteed bonds by roughly two-thirds on average, but that Geithner's disapproval on a conference call killed the idea:
The deal was torpedoed from an unexpected direction. At a conference call with the G7 finance ministers, the haircut was vetoed by US treasury secretary Timothy Geithner who, as his payment of $13 billion from government-owned AIG to Goldman Sachs showed, believes that bankers take priority over taxpayers. The only one to speak up for the Irish was UK chancellor George Osborne, but Geithner, as always, got his way.
The Irish Independent today reported on the Treasury's objection:
The US government last night rubbished a claim that one of its most senior officials "torpedoed" a plan to allow Ireland to write-off some of its bank debts….
Last night, a senior US official said this report was "inaccurate".
The official pointed out the ECB and the European Commission (EC) did not want to impose haircuts on bondholders who loaned money to Irish banks.
"The ECB and EC were both dead opposed and they are decisive. The US is not a decision maker on European issues," the official said.
Ahem. Notice the statement. It does not say that Geithner was not against the restructuring, merely that his opposition made no difference.
But this finesses what Kelly discussed, which is that Geithner effectively undercut the IMF (notice their complete absence from the Treasury account). As Kelly indicated in his op-ed, the Irish strategy was to hold off on a rescue, since Portugal and Spain would need to be dealt with first, and that would improve its bargaining position. As Richard Smith indicated in a series of posts last year, the Irish debt problem was not a government deficit mess but a banking sector lending binge mess, primairly that of Anglo Irish. The notion was to press for a deal that involved a banking sector rescue only rather than channel the rescue through the government, effectively making the taxpayers responsible. As Kelly recounted:
On November 16th, European finance ministers urged [finance minister Brian] Lenihan to accept a bailout to stop the panic spreading to Spain and Portugal, but he refused, arguing that the Irish government was funded until the following summer. Although attacked by the Irish media for this seemingly delusional behaviour, Lenihan, for once, was doing precisely the right thing. Behind Lenihan's refusal lay the thinly veiled threat that, unless given suitably generous terms, Ireland could hold happily its breath for long enough that Spain and Portugal, who needed to borrow every month, would drown.
At this stage, with Lenihan looking set to exploit his strong negotiating position to seek a bailout of the banks only, Honohan intervened. As well as being Ireland's chief economic adviser, he also plays for the opposing team as a member of the council of the European Central Bank, whose decisions he is bound to carry out. In Frankfurt for the monthly meeting of the ECB on November 18th, Honohan announced on RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland that Ireland would need a bailout of "tens of billions".
Rarely has a finance minister been so deftly sliced off at the ankles by his central bank governor. And so the Honohan Doctrine that bank losses could and should be repaid by Irish taxpayers ran its predictable course with the financial collapse and international bailout of the Irish State.
And no less than IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn had given coded support in public for the Irish position. This Bloomberg report is from November 13:
The International Monetary Fund stands ready to help Ireland if needed, its managing director said, as market concern about the country's debt crisis continues.
"Everybody knows that the situation with Ireland, it's a difficult situation," IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss- Kahn told reporters today in Yokohama, Japan. "So far I haven't received any kind of request. I think they can manage well. If at one point in time, tomorrow, in two months or two years, the Irish want support from the IMF, we will be ready."….
Strauss-Kahn, who is attending this weekend's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, also told reporters today that Ireland's debt problems are mostly linked with "one big bank" and are different from those of Greece.
"It's not the same thing as Greece's problem," which was caused by a lack of economic competitiveness in addition to fiscal woes, he said.
Notice the strategy of the ECB was to force a rescue on Ireland even though the need was not imminent. So Strauss-Kahn saying that he was ready when the Irish were ready but "I think they cam manage well" was pointedly standing aside from the matter. This is consistent with the Kelly account:
The negotiations went downhill from there. On one side was the European Central Bank, unabashedly representing Ireland's creditors and insisting on full repayment of bank bonds. On the other was the IMF, arguing that Irish taxpayers would be doing well to balance their government's books, let alone repay the losses of private banks. And the Irish? On the side of the ECB, naturally.
In the circumstances, the ECB walked away with everything it wanted. The IMF were scathing of the Irish performance, with one staffer describing the eagerness of some Irish negotiators to side with the ECB as displaying strong elements of Stockholm Syndrome.
The bailout represents almost as much of a scandal for the IMF as it does for Ireland. The IMF found itself outmanoeuvred by ECB negotiators, their low opinion of whom they are not at pains to conceal. More importantly, the IMF was forced by the obduracy of Geithner and the spinelessness, or worse, of the Irish to lend their imprimatur, and €30 billion of their capital, to a deal that its negotiators privately admit will end in Irish bankruptcy. Lending to an insolvent state, which has no hope of reducing its debt enough to borrow in markets again, breaches the most fundamental rule of the IMF, and a heated debate continues there over the legality of the Irish deal.
Now in fairness, what this depicts is a divided Ireland (the Finance Minister versus the governor of the central bank, who also happens to be aligned with the ECB) while the IMF is trying to fight an uphill battle with the ECB to get a more realistic deal. As we have said repeatedly, Ireland is the poster child of "austerity does not work". Its nominal GDP has fallen 20% since steep budget cuts were implemented, making its debt to GDP ratio worse.
So why was what Geithner said on the call probably more important than the Treasury spokesperson suggested? First, as anyone who has spent a lot of times in meetings can attest, a person who is seen as influential or knowledgable, even if they do not have a formal decision-making role, can wind influencing a decision. Indeed, the theoretical outsider can has more sway by being perceived to be objective.
And let us not forget: the US has more votes on the IMF board than any other nation, and Geithner is the US's governor. Do you think his expressing a negative view of a haircut might have some influence on the IMF?
This entry was posted in Banking industry, Economic fundamentals, Macroeconomic policy, Media watch, Politics, The destruction of the middle class on May 10, 2011 by Yves Smith.
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Glen May 10, 2011 at 5:32 am
Geithner is the Financial equivalent of Rumsfeld and Cheney.
yoganmahew May 10, 2011 at 5:55 am
Is the Irish property bubble being airbrushed out of history?
There's a fiscal deficit of 15bn euro excluding interest payments on debt. That's down to increased social security payments and runaway bubble revenue spending (government spending doubled between 2000 and 2008).
Austerity simply hasn't happened – GDP fell with the bursting of the bubble – it predated austerity measures. Many of the measures are less than the deflation that has occurred. Some are entirely spurious – deferring payrises that had been agreed and capital spending that was planned.
GNP has risen for the last three quarters. GDP is vastly inflated (to the tune of 20%) by transfer pricing by multinationals that funnel profits through Ireland to the Netherlands and on to tax havens beyond (the double Irish and the Dutch sandwich).
With regard to Mr. Honohan – the IMF were in town already. Government ministers were denying a bailout was being sought, that it was in progress, that the IMF were in town. There was an electronic run on the banks that has continued (look at the Central Bank deposit figures and the increasing reliance of Irish banks on ELA from the ICB). The country was near panic.
No political party in Ireland is willing to cut the deficit at a significant pace. You omit the part of Mr. Kelly's article where he says that the deficit must be cut to zero in short order to be able to default. You simply cannot expect that a country can default and immediate look for funding to continue spewing money to the best paid politicans and senior civil servants in Europe. How does this sit with your dislike of austerity? How do you propose that a country funds itself without a balanced budget?
Mr. Lenihan's negotiating position was not credible within Ireland; I doubt it was outside. Sheriff Bart in Blazing Saddles may escape lynching by threatening to shoot the sheriff, it doesn't cut much ice with creditors that know that you need the money.
Ireland is playing the poor mouth in a fur coat…
Yves Smith Post author May 10, 2011 at 6:22 am
I suggest you consider the view of Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, who is most decidedly not a liberal, from an article at the end of November:
Let me add that the ECB ran a monetary policy that was too loose even for the eurozone as a whole, holding rates at 2pc until well into the credit boom and allowing the M3 money supply to expand at 11pc (against a 4.5pc target). The ECB breached its own inflation ceiling every month for a decade. It did this to help Germany through its mini-slump, and in doing so poured petrol on the bonfire of the PIGS. So please, NO MORE HYPOCRISY FROM BERLIN.
The truth is that the EMU venture is one of shared culpability. Yes, the Irish should have regulated their banks properly and restricted mortgages to a loan-to-value ratio of 80pc, 70pc, or 60pc, forcing it down as low as needed – as Hong Kong and Singapore do – to stop idiotic bubbles.
But almost nobody understood the implications of monetary union: in Dublin, in Berlin, in Brussels, and Frankfurt. They were almost all beguiled, (though I doubt that the ECB's Axel Weber and Jurgen Stark ever were).
Given this, why should the Irish people accept the current terms? As Citigroup said in a note today, the EU part of the package will come at around 7pc — higher than the fee paid by Greece. This is penal.
By 2014, interest payments on Ireland's public debt (then 120pc of GDP) will be €10bn, while tax revenues will be €36bn. This ratio is well above the average default trigger of 22pc, as calculated in a Moody's study.
Nominal Irish GNP has contracted by 26pc since the peak. It is nominal, not real, that matters for debt dynamics.
Ireland is in a classic debt-deflation trap , as described by Irving Fisher in his 1933 Economica paper.
Yes, it has a very vibrant export sector, and can perhaps claw its way out of the trap – which Greece and Portugal cannot hope to do in time, in my view. In a way that makes the choice even harder.
The question is, should the Dail vote against the austerity budget on December 7, Pearl Harbour Day. And should the next government – with Sinn Fein in the coalition? – tell the EU to go to Hell, do an Iceland, wash its hands of the banks, and carry out a unilateral default on senior debt by refusing to extend the guarantee?
The risks are huge, but then the provocations are also huge. And there is a score to settle. Did the EU not disregard the Irish `No' to Lisbon, just as it disregarded the first Irish `No' to Nice? Did it not trample all over Irish democracy?
It is not for a British newspaper to suggest which course to take. Both outcomes are ghastly, but as one Irish reader wrote to me: if Eamon De Valera could defy world opinion in 1945 by sending condolences to Germany for the death of the Fuhrer, today's leaders need not worry too much about scandalizing those who made them swallow Lisbon.
Compliance is traumatic. Default is traumatic. What the Irish have before them is a political choice about what they wish to be as a people, and a nation.
Let me finish with a few words by Dan O'Brien, the Economics Editor of the Irish Times, that caught my eye.
"Nothing quite symbolised this State's loss of sovereignty than the press conference at which the ECB man spoke along with two IMF men and a European Commission official. It was held in the Government press centre beneath the Taoiseach's office. I am a xenophile and cosmopolitan by nature, but to see foreign technocrats take over the very heart of the apparatus of this State to tell the media how the State will be run into the foreseeable future caused a sickening feeling in the pit of my stomach."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100008812/irelands-debt-servitude/
Absolutely I've read AE-P. There is little I disagree with in his article.
As he says "Compliance is traumatic. Default is traumatic."
What he doesn't say and that few seem to want to address is that default requires immediate austerity.
Politically in Ireland, Mr. Lenihan and now his successor Mr. Noonan have decided that it is better for the Irish economy to not close the deficit quickly. This closes off the possibility of default except on terms that your lenders agree to. As Mr. Kelly highlighted – the only lender willing to countenance this was Mr. Osbourne.
Don't forget it was Mr. Lenihan's government that blew the bubble, that it was he and his officials that introduced the guarantee in the criminally incompetent belief that somehow there would be a property crash and the banks weren't insolvent. It looked foolhardy in September 2008; it looked like it would bankrupt the state. It did. Despite all of this, there is still no bank resolution legislation in Ireland… Mr. Lenihan's attempts at revisionism cut no ice with me.
I'll leave you with a quote from someone I respect:
"Given that preventing labor unrest is a major priority in the Chinese officialdom, it seems they have a non-win situation: either see worker real incomes squeezed further by rising prices, or deprive some, perhaps many, of jobs by putting the brakes on growth. As much as the entire world has every reason to hope for a happy outcome, soft landings are notoriously hard to engineer even in a command economy like China's."
( ;) )
Ireland reached its Minsky moment in late 2008. Debt-deflation is inevitable. So far, 46 billion has been borrowed to pump into the banks, 35 billion of it, at least, never to be seen again. Meanwhile, 50 bn has been borrowed to fund the fiscal deficit and another 40 bn is planned over the next three years. So while the banks are a very large problem, the unsustainable state debt is mostly as a result of the deficit.
Despite the parlous state of the sovereign, Irish households are in a worse state. All mortgages are recourse. Bankruptcy is an expensive option that takes a minimum of twelve years to work out. There is no house price register, so there is widespread confusion about what prices have fallen to. S&P recently claimed the falls were over with a decline of 31% from peak. Anecdotally (and this from estate agents among others), the falls have already surpassed 60%. With rental yields still below the cost of investment mortgages, there is more to come.
So what has been done to address this in the past three years? Er, the banks have been asked not to repossess… that's about it… despite it being part of the MoU with the IMF, there has still been no new personal insolvency regime.
Some people really need to move away from the "Irish government good, IMF bad" story. Many of the measures suggested by the IMF have been welcomed in Ireland by those not attached to the official Ireland of insiders and backscratchers.
ed_finnerty May 10, 2011 at 10:07 am
The real killer is the out migration – there is no chance of the economy recovering enough to pay back the loans if the workforce is leaving.
jedimom May 10, 2011 at 1:10 pm
were I the Irish PTB, I would offer immigration to we Americans of Irish descent, there are millions of us here and we need work and homes thanks to Geithner stopping any real mods or a HOLC plan.
give us a chance at a house and citizenship and we will flock back 'home'.
Dr. Pitchfork May 10, 2011 at 11:02 am
That Ireland cannot borrow if it defaults on its bank guarantee is nonsense. Speaking for myself, if Ireland defaulted, I would put every penny I could in Irish bonds. It's only BECAUSE of the bank guarantee, which is unserviceable without outside assistance, that Irish yields are so high. Obviously it's the bank guarantee that's driving the risk premium.
But even if you were right, wouldn't a period of forced austerity (no sovereign debt issuance) be preferable to bailing out bank creditors, plus austerity, plus the possibility of a total sovereign default later on?
yoganmahew May 10, 2011 at 4:01 pm
Oh, I agree entirely. Note that Mr. Kelly is talking about default on bank obligations only.
Despite that, sovereign debt in GNP terms just for the deficit may be unsustainable. This is where the problem comes – many in Ireland are calling for default on 'everything'. In which case, borrowing becomes difficult.
Note also that defaulting on bank bonds assumes that the ECB and bondholders will take ownership of the banks and will continue to fund them. The Irish state is not in a position to make good on deposit guarantees (there is no equivalent of DIF or the FDIC). A disorderly collapse of the banks would be, eh, bad.
The period between hacking off the rotten limb that is the banks and getting market funding is likely to be at least a year as everyone watches and waits to see if Ireland will just go totally bust and if the ECB will step up to the plate. It is because of this delay in getting funding that the state needs a balanced budget (not being within the 3% deficit limit!).
fresno dan May 10, 2011 at 12:03 pm
I think that is a good insight. If one looks at how Geithner acts, one has to ask 'why'? I would assume that there is such a fear of debt deflation that the US Fed and Treasury appears to believe that any default ANYWHERE can start the avalanche.
If that is not the answer, I would be interested in other plausible theories.
Martin May 10, 2011 at 4:23 pm
AEP is wrong, when he writes, the ECB broke the inflation target. I know for sure, that at the celebration of the 10th birthday of the Euro, the average inflation for those first 10 years was less than, but close to 2%.
Before the oil jump in 2008, there were few months, where the inflation was above 2.5%.
http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/
On average the inflation in the Eurozone was quite a bit lower than in the US. And this with higher unemployment, which should reduce the rate as well.
Tao Jonesing May 10, 2011 at 10:12 am
Before calling for austerity or deficit reduction that is ultimately designed to help out the banksters, shouldn't we remind ourselves that Ireland's government incurred that deficit to help out the banksters?
Even if we consider the Irish property bubble, let's remember who blew that bubble: the banksters.
I guess the moral of the story is that everybody else must suffer so that the banksters can keep earning their bonuses.
No, the deficit wasn't incurred to bail out the banksters. As I say above, 15 bn (or 14% of GDP) will be borrowed this year for current and capital spending excluding interest on existing debt (whether bank or not) and excluding bank bailout costs.
disgruntled observer May 10, 2011 at 8:10 pm
Hogan, you're kinda playing a bit fast and loose here aren't you. There're lots I'd agree with with you about, but this we're playing the poor mouth is getting really tiring. I'd suggest you revisit Professor Karl Whelans post at:
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2011/03/22/behaving-like-teenagers/
"Consider this for a second. In 2009 and 2010, the Irish public experienced the two biggest years of fiscal adjustment anywhere in the advanced economic world over the past thirty years. And this left Ireland with a budget deficit of nearly 12% of GDP. After another budget implementing adjustments similar in size to the previous two years, the public then elected a government consisting of parties who proposed a further €9 billion in cuts over the next three years in the case of Fine Gael or €7 billion in the case of Labour.
By the time the stabilisation programme is supposed to be finished, the cumulative fiscal adjustment will have been close to 20 percent of GDP. Previous academic studies of large adjustments reported cumalative adjustments of 10 percent of GDP as the outer limits of what had been achieved (see here and page 17 of this paper).
I'm my opinion, those who wish to characterise the Irish public as feckless teenagers have it exactly wrong. Fiscal adjustments are extremely difficult to implement. Every society in the world has powerful institutions and organisations designed to protect vested interests and various types of status quos. Many of these societies would respond to one year of fiscal adjustment on an Irish scale with mass public protests and strikes.
In Ireland, however, we have largely accepted three years of these adjustments without serious disruption and then voted in a government charged with implementing further large adjustments…."
"No doubt many of our commenters will continue with their negative characterisations of the Irish people. However, I think the past few years have showed that we are a strong people who have displayed great courage in coping with immense adversity. Requesting a small amount of assistance from our European partners (particularly in relation to the repayment of loans made to insolvent banks by the ECB and European bondholders) to help Ireland avoid a sovereign default—this shouldn't be too much to ask for if European solidarity is to be more than just a cheap slogan."
For my part: I'm almost completely convinced that we can neither cut/tax our way out of this. (Although I'd definitely like to see a higher tax take in this state, in particular on wealth and high incomes.) But to be honest, short of the ECB engaging in direct monetization, I can't see a way out other than leaving the euro. And I think that's implicit, but not said in Morgan Kelly's piece.
Well, let's look at the cuts that have been 'counted':
http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/reports/2011/spuirelandapr2011.pdf
(see p.48 onwards)
Jul 2008 – spoof efficiency measures, reduction in expenditure on consultancy, advertising and PR. Tough times…
Oct 2008 – income levy – fair enough; more spoof containing spending
Feb 2009 – PS pension levy – fair enough
Postpone pay rises?! Total spoof
Apr 2009 – revenue raising – fair enough
Adjustments to current and capital expenditure? Not building stuff that they don't have the money for? More spoof.
Dec 2009 – PS pay cut, welfare cuts – fair enough
More unspecified spending cuts and cuts in the capital budget – again more spoof
Only in Dec 2010 has there been a real budget that could be characterised as austerian – three years and 50 bn euro of current and capital borrowing later…
The problem is the same as the 1980s. There is an unwillingness to either tax or cut current spending. The axe is falling on the capital budget (total anti-cyclical rubbish). There is hiding behind percentages – the Irish president has taken a 10% paycut, but is still paid more than the US president. The Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister) has taken pay cuts, but is still paid more than the German Chancellor. The Irish civil service has some of the highest paid bureaucrats in the world.
In case you think I am some sort of tea-party loon, I'm not. I welcome an increase in the tax base to a sustainable level. There just isn't that much to be gained by squeezing the top. The really rich chums of FF et al have all left the country, their wealth intact. Higher taxes are going to have to be paid by everyone. Lower benefits are going to be received by everyone.
Maju May 10, 2011 at 6:11 am
What the US says is normally deciding in IMF issues. Sadly China and other new powers are not allowed by the imperialist Breton Woods agreements to get the voice they deserve in these key monetary global institutions, so as of now the IMF is little more than the monetary office of USA/NATO/Trilateral Commission.
But, as European, what really worries me is the ECB and EC (European Commission) attitudes here: they are not helping at all to solve the problem, much less in terms that are acceptable for the peoples involved. The ECB is not lending enough to member states, the euro is way too high, and the Brussels institutions in general seem to think that making peripheral peoples pay for the errors or abuses of some private banks (clearly the cases of Ireland and Iceland at least, even if very differently managed), often banks owned by other European oligarchies (not even national bourgeoisies!) will bring the EU anywhere else than a total disaster.
These policies are not just totally unfair for the peripheral peoples, which are being made to pay the abuses of some oligarchies but they are a time-bomb on EU itself because the principle of solidarity has been radically breached, rendering EU meaningless.
There is just too much emphasis in German or otherwise NW European (oligarchic) interests and meanwhile the rest of the union is being dumped into colonial status. This has such short run that I can't believe that the Brussels bureaucrats really believe in all this nonsense.
I feel like riding in a plane run by suicidal pilots who want to crash it.
Hubert May 10, 2011 at 6:20 am
If not building even more houses means lower GDP – then a lower GDP might not be all bad …… Irish now have more time in the pub; might bring GDP up again.
actually, pub sales have PLUNGED in Ireland. there was just an economic data point released showing pub layoffs/closures and the drop in Irish spending in pubs.
Cedric Regula May 10, 2011 at 9:37 am
I think the Irish probably backed down when TG leaked the CIA sat photo images of NATO troops massing in Dunkirk.
I expect a warrant will be issued to arrest Bono soon, the charges being conspiring with Paul Volker to wreak the global financial system and also having sex without a condom. U2 is obviously a clever name for an Al-Qaeda cell, but the cover has been blown.
bill n May 10, 2011 at 10:44 am
But -why- is Geithner, per @Glen, " the Financial equivalent of Rumsfeld and Cheney." ?
I've seen a lot of stuff deriding the G. I read a few of his papers BT (before Treasury). He does not seem like the devil incarnate. I don't buy that he is in the pay of the Banks. What's his worldview? I've not seen anything on it…
Yves Smith Post author May 10, 2011 at 2:26 pm
Have you not been paying attention? He was behind paying out 100% on credit default swaps to AIG counterparties, as the new Treasury secretary he recommended against tough measures versus the banks (the stress tests and the ridiculous PPIP), made all kinds of promises re transparency for the TARP and reneged (discussed in ECONNED), has acknowledged banks gamed HAMP yet refused to clay back incentives and more generally not taken foreclosure fraud seriously).
john c. halasz May 10, 2011 at 6:16 pm
Actually, I think it's clear, from what's plainly been reported in the MSM, that not just Geithner, but Obama himself believe that Hi-Fi is a crucial area of U.S. comparative advantage. Not least because "developing nations" lack "deep" capital markets and U.S. Hi-Fi is supposed to provide their "services". It's the same ol' Wall St./Cold War imperialism, but, as usual, the principals are blind to how much damage they've done and are doing to their "brand".
alex May 10, 2011 at 6:57 pm
Nah, back in the ol' days we were only out to kill commies. If you lived in a 1st world country they'd try to keep you from going commie by cutting you in on a piece of the action.
Nowadays anyone who isn't a banker or one of their cronies is a target. They're really very internationalist and non-discriminatory, and will happily steal from anyone.
The only thing I didn't like about the Irish Times article is where it said "but Geithner, as always, got his way. An instructive, if painful, lesson in … who our friends really are"
Sure Turbo Timmy is no friend of the Irish, but he's no friend of the Americans either. Both you and the author have to get out of this nation-state mentality and understand that this is more akin to the Middle Ages. Ceaseless minor wars notwithstanding, royalty and nobility often worked in "international cooperation" and understood that the real targets were the serfs.
anon2 May 10, 2011 at 11:46 am
bill n says: "But -why- is Geithner, per @Glen, " the Financial equivalent of Rumsfeld and Cheney."?…I don't buy that he is in the pay of the Banks….What's his worldview."?
This has been discussed at length in previous posts. You could try these links, for a start:
Geithner's Dubious AIG cover-up:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/01/geithners-dubious-aig-cover-up.html
NY Fed Told AIG to Hide Details of Swaps Payouts to Banks
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/01/ny-fed-told-aig-to-hide-details-of-swaps-payouts-to-banks.html
bill n May 10, 2011 at 2:21 pm
Thanks for responding. I know this stuff. But -why- is G apparently a financial terrorist? It does not seem to me to make sense.
He is a protege of Bob Rubin and Larry Summers. He has no financial services industry experience, he isn't even an economist. He is instinctively a preserver of the status quo, and that status quo is rotten, plus he is intellectually captured by the banks, which compounds his propensity to coddle them no matter how much damage it does to everyone else. He believes everything they tell him and does not appear to seek out independent views. He gives all the right caveats in his speeches so he looks objective, but he's not.
See this take on one of his 2007 speeches. It's an early warning before his colors were clear:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/03/new-york-fed-president-timothy.html
And another reader's reaction to the speech and post:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/03/toothless-fed.html
Yikes! I think this is right. He's not a thief. He's much worse: a believer!
YS, you nailed it in 2007! In March! I'm in awe.
You da man – er…
"He is instinctively a preserver of the status quo …"
Give the man the benefit of the doubt. Maybe he's just unusually patient in waiting for his Wall St. payoff (ala Rubin and Summers). A crook I can understand, but if he's just a lick-spittle not even trying for a payoff, I'll loose all respect for him.
Paul May 12, 2011 at 9:30 am
He's more like Condi Rice. Fail in a truly spectacular way at your job and get promoted despite/because of it.
Albert May 10, 2011 at 12:40 pm
As we have said repeatedly, Ireland is the poster child of "austerity does not work". Its nominal GDP has fallen 20% since steep budget cuts were implemented, making its debt to GDP ratio worse.
I keep seeing similar statements from you, but I don't think the argument ever was that somehow the GDP would not decrease in the short-term from "austerity measures." Government spending is one of the parts of GDP, so obviously reduced government spending is going to reduce GDP in the short term. The argument is rather that by reducing the absolute debt figure, the debt:GDP ratio will reduce over the long term because less of our money will be wasted paying interest to creditors and bankers and instead will be spent on productive growth.
The argument is similar to the argument that banks needed to be wiped out in 2008 for the long-term good of the GDP; obviously, in the short term GDP would have been devastated. But the whole point of illustrating the hope as a "V-shaped" recovery was to say that even though GDP would suffer (and debt:GDP would grow) in the short-term, cleansing the system would allow for real economic growth without the parasites and baggage of zombie banks in the long-term.
It's completely immoral to put "austerity measures" (understood as making us spend within our means) on the people, especially the poor/elderly/sick, while deficit subsidizing the banksters and corporations at the same time. But the solution is to stop subsidizing the rich creditors, make them actually eat the costs they've helped create by defaulting on debts rather than deficit paying them, and balance the budget–which is precisely what Morgan Kelly recommended.
Hugh May 10, 2011 at 2:04 pm
Where even to begin? The US is not Ireland. Ireland is screwed because it does not control its own currency and because its government took on a bunch of banking debt it should never have gone near.
There is nothing sacred or even particularly relevant about debt/GDP ratios with regard to the US. The use of Treasuries to finance public debt is a holdover from the gold standard and is a subsidy to financial markets through the interest paid on them. We could still deficit spend in this country and never issue another T-bill. We can do this because the US is sovereign in its currency. The only constraint is inflation and that has not been in evidence. The general pattern remains deflationary. The inflation we see in commodities markets is an outgrowth of Fed policies that sponsor speculation in them. Not really the same thing at all.
Austerity is a bad policy in a recession because it decreases demand on the public side even as it is decreasing on the private one. The idea that this somehow will stimulate growth is simply and patently false. It is like saying that the best way to gain weight is to cut one's caloric intake and start exercising.
F. Beard May 10, 2011 at 2:43 pm
There is nothing sacred or even particularly relevant about debt/GDP ratios with regard to the US. Hugh
True. The US should not even have a National Debt. And we should pay it off as it comes due with new, debt-free fiat.
The use of Treasuries to finance public debt is a holdover from the gold standard and is a subsidy to financial markets through the interest paid on them. Hugh
We could still deficit spend in this country and never issue another T-bill. Hugh
The sooner the better!
We can do this because the US is sovereign in its currency. The only constraint is inflation and that has not been in evidence. Hugh
The risk of inflation could be greatly reduced if the US allowed genuine private currencies. That way, the US Government would only hurt itself and its payees if it overspent relative to taxation; the private sector could sail merrily along unaffected.
[snip] The general pattern remains deflationary. The inflation we see in commodities markets is an outgrowth of Fed policies that sponsor speculation in them. Not really the same thing at all. Hugh
True. Government spending, including the deficit, would only be to cover government costs, not recapitalized the banks on the sly.
Albert May 10, 2011 at 5:46 pm
Way to completely miss the point, O zealous one. Everyone knows austerity measures will not stimulate the economy in the short term.
Everyone knows austerity measures will not stimulate the economy in the short term. Albert
Ah yes. Dem "malinvestments" must be purged first?
What the Austerians fail to realize it that the bust may be as damaging as the boom since both phases are caused by fractional reserve lending.
Yeah, why are we ganging up on Timothy Geithner. He made his bones back during the Asian banking crisis in the 90s when he was the IMF envoy and pushed the policies that made that crisis so much worse than it needed to be. He was head of the New York Fed from 2003 onward and had the best seat in the house to see the housing bubble and the meltdown coming. Did I mention that the NY Fed is as big as the rest of the Federal Reserve banks combined? What was Geithner's reaction to all this? He praised and promoted financial innovation and diversity saying that this made markets safer. In other words, he was completely catastrophically wrong and totally in accord with the reigning kleptocrats. And when the housing bubble blew up in 2007 and the meltdown hit in 2008, Geithner again was in the best position to, you know, actually do something constructive. What did he do? He helped put together the sweetheart deal with JPMorgan to take over Bear Stearns. He helped make the decision not to intervene with Lehman with the consequences we all know. He helped put together the AIG deal that helped out Goldman Sachs so much. He continues to defend even the most egregious financial instruments like naked CDS. He has run inteference for the banksters at every turn. The financial industry remains as corrupt, unreformed, out of control, and predatory as ever thanks to his unceasing efforts. With a record like that, how could anyone be critical?
IrishGirl May 10, 2011 at 1:58 pm
It was the Irish Times that published Morgan Kelly's op-ed, not the Independent (your link goes to the Times).
This is important because the Indo has a very different slant on political/economic affairs to that of the Times (it's more to the right).
Oh, thanks a LOT, will correct the post. And this makes it more interesting, the Times saw the Treasury denial as noise and appears not to have run it.
make do and mend May 10, 2011 at 5:01 pm
@ yoganmayhew, how can you seriously suggest that the Irish state's total acquiescence to first Irish bankers and then the ECB to give blanket gaurantees on Irish bank debt and then effectively assume the majority of risk on unperforming debt of the banks as a seperate issue from state funding. It is this type of tripe that bankersters, regulators and the ex-Finance ministers foisted on the Irish nation that has landed us where we are. The contingent liabilities of banks affected our ability to borrow in the international financial markets. You cannot disconnect the budget deficits, where borrowing (and other monies) could have covered tax receipt shortfalls until adjustments were made, while ignoring the huge implied risks taken by the govt in relation to bad banks. The budget deficit didn't affect interest rates for Irish govt borrowing but the opacity and duplicity of govt policy with regard to the banking situation did. Nobody knew the depth and extent of the risks under which the govt had willingly put nation. This drove up the interest rates for Ireland and made borrowing problematic. Put the horse before the cart.
Before the crisis we had a debt ratio of about 26% to GNP, a large surplus in the national retirement account and decent standing in the bond markets until the banking system aided and abetted by an ideologically bound govt refused at every point to come clean on how badly the entire Irish banking system had been run – not just Anglo. Had we not had a Fianance Minister whose very words where that he "never countenanced" a govt policy that would affect bond holders in any negative manner as the only primary objective of govt policy during this whole sorry period, we could have handled the situation much more advantageously. This expressed sentiment from the ex-finance minsister was hardly a good position from which to negotiate nor was it keeping with past practices during previous banking crises.
As the housing bubble burst, we needed to address tax receipt shortfalls over time and with a view to stabalising the economy, including employment. Instead we had a govt whose seemingly sole purpose was to ensure that all bondholders shouldn't be affected by their own decisions about risk and reward. As the opacity increased and the crisis along with it, the govt found scape goats in the Public Sector mainly, but elsewhere also. Had we followed past US or Swedish solutions to a banking crisis, put some clarity into the markets about our predicament, raised taxes a point to two on the wealthy, and used some retirement money to fund shortfalls in a wise manner while restructuring the our income/debt situation we'd be in a far better place today. We'd be paying some sort of premium on borrowed money but not effectively shut out of the markets. Instead, it seems that many still have an agenda to obfusticate, call for privatisation of viable state enterprises (at the cheapest sales prices available) and ultimately blaming the unemployed for being unemployed in a system so stacked against the individual that many are fleeing (immigration).
The numbers still do not add up. The deficit is the result of the bubble, not the result of the banksters. Perhaps the deficit would have been manageable without the banks (I called for the banks to be liquidated in late 2008, where were you?).
Or perhaps the government would have avoided making any decisions, kept its three month summer holidays, and continued to pay itself too much. And the problem would have been delayed, with the result the same.
The national debt on entering the crisis, 2007, was 25% of GDP. This nets off the NPRF against the gross debt figure. The GGD was 40% of GDP or 50% of GNP. GDP was inflated, probably to the tune of 20% by the effects of the bubble, so realistically debt was over 60% of GNP. Barring accounting tricks, this was already over the Maastricht limit. For a number of years the money put into the NPRF had been borrowed.
Believing that the financial markets (lenders) would continue to believe the rating agencies and their spoof ratings is a fool's errand. Ireland was on an unsustainable path from a good while before the financial crisis and this just from the public debt perspective. From the private debt perspective it was far worse.
By the way, there is no difference between the "Irish state" and the "bankers". They went to the same schools, they studied the same courses. They are, in blood, one and the other. There is an aristocracy in Ireland based on who you know. That is what led us to catastrophe and the same actors are still in charge and continuing to feather their own nests at the expense of anyone else they can reach to strangle.
Gary Anderson May 10, 2011 at 5:32 pm
Tim Geithner cares less about the people. He only cares about investors and wants everything under the sun guaranteed. He is a Federal Reserve mole who should not be Treasury Secretary.
VM May 10, 2011 at 9:53 pm
How can any of this be credible without the key potato question of – How much, where from and when? Next time they meet in Jackson hole WY they should hop across to Idaho and nail this.
make do and mend May 11, 2011 at 2:17 am
VM, go back to eating cheese doodles and watching NSCAR.
VM May 11, 2011 at 9:24 am
Hmmm I see- not Formula 1 ? I do neither actually.
Lambert Strether on 2:00PM Water Cooler 1/21/2020Not if good old boy McConnell limits the...


Located in the Morton Village Shopping Center, minutes from the LIRR station and with plenty of parking available, our Central Nassau office is close to all major parkways and near Jones Beach.
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text:
Q: How to share Knockout JS observables between UI Components I understand how to use imports: {} and exports: {} to share a UI components properties, such as:
defaults: {
    exports: {
        shouldShowMessage: '${$.component}'
    }
}

Which returns the component name in the exports.

But when I try to export a Knockout observable it is always undefined:
defaults: {
    exports: {
        shouldShowMessage: '${$.shouldShowMessage}'
    }
}

...

setupKoBindings: function() {
    this.shouldShowMessage = ko.observable('Testing');
}

As a workaround I am going to create a storage model as explained here but I would prefer to use the imports and exports.

A: The values of the exports object have to resolve to a name and a property of a  UiComponent instance, separated by a ':', for example checkout.cart.total:title.
The export target name has to include the UI component "namespace".
In your example, you set the value to a string, which resolves to a property of the UiComponent that is the export source.
The export is undefined when you inspect it because that is not a valid export target.
Here is an example that works:
defaults: {
    exportTarget: "foo.bar",
    exportTargetProperty: "showMessage",

    tracks: {
        shouldShowMessage: true
    },

    exports: {
        shouldShowMessage: '${$.exportTarget}:${$.exportTargetProperty}'
    }
}
...

The above will copy the value of the shouldShowMessage property into the property showMessage of a UiComponent with the full name foo.bar every time the value changes.
Note that this will not automatically make the target property a KO observable, too. That has to be declared explicitly, if value changes should trigger KO to rerender DOM nodes that access that property.
By the way, adding shouldShowMessage to the tracks object will make it a ko-es5 observable automagically. Using a literal ko.observable() works, too.
In the example above, the exportTarget and exportTargetProperty are configured in the defaults. They also could be specified as part of the UiComponent options in the JSON, which usually makes more sense, since that is where the UiComponent hierarchy including the UiComponent names are defined.
Finally, I would like to note that I personally think your solution using a value object to pass the value to the other UI component is better than using exports or imports. In my experience keeping shared state in the DOM or in UiComponents is a recipe for spaghetti OOP in all but the simplest cases.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Architectural historians, art historians, architects, museum professionals, and preservationists from around the world will convene to present new research on the history of the built environment and explore the architecture and landscape of Providence and nearby areas. The conference will include 38 paper sessions, roundtable and panel discussions, architecture tours, workshops, networking receptions, special events, and more.
Repeat Repeats every day beginning on April 24, 2019 and ending April 28, 2019.


text:
Tag: dark reign
Marvel Comics Final Thoughts – Secret Warriors: The Complete Collection, Vol. 2
The titular team takes a back seat as we dive deeper into Nick Fury's complicated past and convoluted present.
Writers: Jonathan Hickman
Artists: Alessandro Vitti, Mirko Colak
Issues: Secret Warriors (2008) #17-28, Siege: Secret Warriors
Secret Warriors had a really fun start as one of the best new comics to come out of Marvel's Dark Reign period. Nick Fury's clandestine team of second generation sleeper agent superheroes battling Hydra forces felt very GI Joe-ish in all the right ways.
The second half of the series is nicely compiled into another collected volume. Unfortunately it almost completely drops the titular team in favor of focusing on Nick Fury.
Jonathan Hickman dives head first into Fury's convoluted past and present. It's filled with silly twists, gotchas, and "oh he was a just a Life Model Decoy" – all gimmicks that I've grown to resent. I much prefer reading about the team's inner-drama and action set-pieces rather than the Nick Fury Files, but apparently Hickman and Marvel saw otherwise. Continue reading "Marvel Comics Final Thoughts – Secret Warriors: The Complete Collection, Vol. 2"
Author roguewatsonPosted on March 23, 2016 Categories blog, ComicsTags daisy johnson, dark reign, hydra, last ride of the howling commandos, marvel, Marvel comics, nick fury, night, secret warriors, shield, wheels within wheelsLeave a comment on Marvel Comics Final Thoughts – Secret Warriors: The Complete Collection, Vol. 2
Marvel Comics Final Thoughts – Siege
Our heroes return in an explosive battle for Asgard, which also brings an end to Norman Osborn's Dark Reign.
Artist: Olivier Coipel
Issues: Siege #1-4, Siege: The Cabal, Siege: Prologue*
*I also read the following tie-ins: Dark Avengers #13-16, New Avengers #61-64 + Finale, Thor #607-609, Siege: Loki One-Shot, Siege: Secret Warriors One-Shot
Finally we come to the end of what I'll call the Bendis Era of Big Marvel Events. It began with 2006's Civil War (and really you could go back further to House of M or Avengers: Disassembled), continued into 2008's Secret Invasion, which gave way to 2009's Dark Reign, and finally ends with 2010's Siege.
This age of near constant mega-events would continue to define Marvel comics throughout the next decade, and with the recent success of Secret Wars, I don't see it slowing down any time soon.
As an event, Siege is heavily embedded in Marvel continuity, specifically the cool but not exactly new-reader friendly Dark Reign. Dark Reign put Norman Osborn as leader of the initiative that was initially created by Tony Stark in the post-Civil War world. He built his own Dark Avengers team, a surprisingly awesome comic that further explored the bad guys-as-heroes dynamic that made Thunderbolts so great.
The political events have largely been a heavy-handed reflection of our culture of fear, and the dichotomy between freedom and security. Drawing parallels between 9/11 and America's War on Terror is pretty low-hanging fruit to grasp, and nowhere is that more painfully obvious than Siege. Norman invades Asgard under manufactured pretenses, and starts an unpopular war that ultimately brings his reign to an end. Continue reading "Marvel Comics Final Thoughts – Siege"
Author roguewatsonPosted on January 8, 2016 Categories blog, ComicsTags asgard, Brian Michael Bendis, captain america, dark avengers, dark reign, iron man, loki, marvel, Marvel comics, new avengers, secret warriors, siege, thor3 Comments on Marvel Comics Final Thoughts – Siege
It's Marvel's version of GI Joe as Nick Fury fights back with his own super-powered team of spys and soldiers.
Writers: Brian Michael Bendis, Jonathan Hickman
Artists: Stefano Casselli, Alessandro Vitti, Gianluca Gugliotta, Ed McGuiness
Issues: Secret Warriors (2008) #1-16, Dark Reign: The List – Secret Warriors #1
It's GI Joe, Marvel style!
Nick Fury had been written out of comics for a number of years around the era I started reading (2004-05). He'd been operating in the shadows, occasionally popping up to help other people like Spider-Woman and Winter Soldier. He finally resurfaces in triumphant fashion with his own superteam in the middle of 2008's Secret Invasion, immediately kicking skrull ass.
Following the Secret Invasion and the new regime change that puts Norman Osborn in charge, Nick Fury's team received its own official series called Secret Warriors. The roster of mostly original characters benefits from Brian Michael Bendis' grandiose serialized writing style and plot development, but the actual team remains frustratingly underdeveloped. Continue reading "Marvel Comics Final Thoughts – Secret Warriors: The Complete Collection, Vol. 1"
Author roguewatsonPosted on November 28, 2015 Categories blog, ComicsTags agent of nothing, agents of shield, daisy johnson, dark reign, god of fear god of war, hydra, marvel, Marvel comics, nick fury, quake, secret warriors, wake the beast2 Comments on Marvel Comics Final Thoughts – Secret Warriors: The Complete Collection, Vol. 1
Marvel Comics Final Thoughts – Uncanny X-Men: The Complete Collection, Vol. 2
The X-Men go to war with Norman Osborn's Dark Avengers, and the fate of mutantkind leads to a creation of yet another new home.
Artists: Yanick Paquette, Greg Land, Terry Dodson, Marc Silvestri, Luke Ross, Alan Davis
Issues: Uncanny X-Men (1963) #512-519, Dark Avengers (2009) #7-8, Dark Avengers/Uncanny X-Men Utopia One-Shot, Dark Avengers/Uncanny X-Men Exodus One-Shot*
*I also included relevant tie-ins X-Men Legacy #226-227 and X-Men: Nation X #1-4
"Hello again. My name is Scott Summers and I've been an X-Man since I was fifteen. And like everyone else here, I've been a mutant all my life."
I was originally going to open with "It was a time of upheaval for our beloved mutants," but honestly it's always a damn time of upheaval. From House of M to Emperor Vulcan and the Shi'ar Empire to Messiah Complex, the X-Men have barely had a chance to tell more character-focused, one-off stories before being whisked away to the next major event.
If you can't already tell from the cavalcade of artists and issues included in this collected volume, this is yet another major event. To Marvel's credit, most of these events do change the status quo of X-Men and mutants quite a bit, from destroying Xavier's school to moving the X-Men West to San Francisco.
The Complete Collection Volume 2 covers the Dark Reign era – circa 2009. The X-Men are involved in a growing escalation of anti-mutant hatred in the not-so-progressive city of San Francisco, eventually clashing with Norman Osborn and the Dark Avengers. A new Dark X-Men team is temporarily created by Emma Frost, and Scott shows off his Wartime Consigliere skills when he creates yet another new home for mutantkind by dredging up a surprising location. Continue reading "Marvel Comics Final Thoughts – Uncanny X-Men: The Complete Collection, Vol. 2"
Author roguewatsonPosted on November 22, 2015 Categories blog, ComicsTags cyclops, dark avengers, dark reign, dark x-men, emma frost, exodus, marvel, Marvel comics, nation x, norman osborn, uncanny x-men, utopia, x-men4 Comments on Marvel Comics Final Thoughts – Uncanny X-Men: The Complete Collection, Vol. 2
Inconsistent art, boringly typical comic storylines, and a C-list cast makes Mighty Avengers an ultimately pointless series during Dark Reign.
Writer: Dan Slott
Artists: Khoi Pham (#21-23, 27-31), Rafe Sandoval (#24), Stephen Segovia (#25-26)
Issues: Mighty Avengers (2007) #21-31
Norman Osborn's Dark Reign officially took over the Avengers team in 2009, replacing most of them with his own ex-villains and creating the Dark Avengers. Instead of canceling the Mighty Avengers series, Marvel soft-rebooted it, whipping up a whole new team that exists as a mostly pointless international task force (since they'd be hunted down by Osborn in the US). The C-list heroes serve to elevate the status of the unlikable Hank Pym, who'd been one of the main skrull infiltrators during the Secret Invasion.
The roster is pulled together from a current list of available heroes, some starring in their own series, others in diaspora during Dark Reign. Scarlet Witch (who's later revealed to be Loki in disguise – a neat twist), gathers them together to create a team to mostly deal with omega-level threats outside the US.
The team initially consists of Hank Pym (awkwardly calling himself The Wasp), Stature (slain Ant-Man Scott Lang's daughter and current Young Avenger), Vision, Ronin (Formerly Hawkeye and New Avenger), Hercules and Amadeus Cho, US Agent (borrowed from the failing Omega Flight), Jocasta, Hulk (who leaves after the first story, cause he's the fucking Hulk and screw you guys), and uh the real Edwin Jarvis, loyal Avenger butler. Continue reading "Marvel Comics Final Thoughts – Mighty Avengers (2007), Vol. 5-6"
Author roguewatsonPosted on November 5, 2015 Categories blog, ComicsTags ant-man, avengers, dark reign, earth's mightiest, fantastic four, hank pym, hawkeye, hulk, iron man, jarvis, jocasta, mighty avengers, quicksilver, ronin, Scarlet Witch, the unspoken, vision, young avengersLeave a comment on Marvel Comics Final Thoughts – Mighty Avengers (2007), Vol. 5-6
Eric Watson Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.


What is the "accents" meaning?
Thread: What is the "accents" meaning?
We bought a new round stool, the size is 9"(dia) x 23"(height).
It also discribes itself as "accents any room".
I don't know the meaning of this saying! Thanks!
Re: What is the "accents" meaning?
I hadn't seen it as a verb like that before.
The prominent feature of this stool is its height: 23" ~ 60 cm, it is taller than usual chairs or stools in any room. Does the word "accent" here means "tall"?


EUDML | Primitive characters of subgroups of M-groups. EuDML | Primitive characters of subgroups of M-groups.
Primitive characters of subgroups of M-groups.
Navarro, Gabriel. "Primitive characters of subgroups of M-groups.." Mathematische Zeitschrift 218.3 (1995): 439-446. <http://eudml.org/doc/174739>.
TI - Primitive characters of subgroups of M-groups.


Thanks to all who played along in the Back to School challenge. What great projects you all made! I had a difficult time choosing highlights to post today as all the projects were great. Here are the ones I chose.
Love this card by Heidi. It is so difficult to find boy images. She did a great job on a masculine back to school card.
Love the coloring and the design on the sweet card by Marilyn. Great job!
Love this first day of school teacher gift by Sue. So very creative!
Thanks again to all who played!
Congratulations! Beautiful work by everybody!
Thanks so much for choosing my card as one of the Top 3. Congrats to all the other winners!
Thanks so much for choosing my Kleenex box as a fave-I am honored!


text:
An Act relative to prevent shackling and promote safe pregnancies for female inmates
By Ms. Khan of Newton, a petition (accompanied by bill, House, No. 1433) of Kay Khan and others for legislation to prevent shackling and promote safe pregnancies for female inmates. The Judiciary.
Kay Khan
1/22/2013 House Referred to the committee on the Judiciary
3/20/2014 House Reporting date extended to Monday June 30, 2014, pending concurrence
3/20/2014 House Committee recommended ought NOT to pass
3/20/2014 House Rules suspended
3/20/2014 House Amended by substitution of the bill
3/20/2014 House Referred to the committee on House Ways and Means
3/24/2014 House Committee recommended ought to pass with an amendment, substituting therefor a bill with the same title, see H3978
3/24/2014 House Referred to the House committee on Steering, Policy and Scheduling with the amendment pending
3/25/2014 House Committee reported that the matter be placed in the Orders of the Day for the next sitting for a second reading with the amendment pending
3/25/2014 House Read second, amendment adopted (as recommended by the committee on House Ways and Means)
3/25/2014 House New draft substituted, see H3978
An Act authorizing sheriffs to impose fees
An Act relative to telephone service for inmates in all correctional and other penal institutions in the Commonwealth
An Act limiting the use of prison labor
An Act protecting inmate safety and the expenditure of state funds
An Act to improve public safety by facilitating access to addiction services