COLUMBUS, Ohio – Determination and fortitude carried the New England Revolution through a four-year wilderness -- including one last afternoon of earnest toil -- to the final whistle at Crew Stadium.
Those essential qualities ultimately produced the desired salvation. At long last, the Revs were back in the postseason after a 1-0 victory over Columbus on Sunday.
The last episode in this protracted battle to return to the playoffs summed up the last month rather neatly. Juan Agudelo and Lee Nguyen provided a glimpse of the quality within the ranks when they combined for Agudelo's winner after 28 minutes, but the merits of this win came through the cohesiveness and the grit shown throughout the affair.
Every player contributed to the collective cause. Some even did so at considerable personal expense. Jose Goncalves persisted through a right hamstring injury suffered in the first five minutes. Kevin Alston departed in the second half after he picked up a hamstring strain. And Kelyn Rowe sustained a rather nasty kick to the outside of his knee on a rash Dominic Oduro challenge in second-half stoppage time.
All of those sacrifices – plus the performances across the board, including a couple of instrumental saves from Reis – yielded the desired end product. Columbus huffed and puffed, but the Revs remained defiant until the last to fulfill their objective.
Those efforts proved more than enough to claim this cathartic victory and secure a date with Sporting Kansas City in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The assignment isn't an easy one, but the Revs are well prepared for it in the wake of these last few weeks.
It is a task they will embrace with relish. It is no longer about the failures of the past or the triumphs in the present. It is now about the possibilities in the future.
Kyle McCarthy covers the New England Revolution for MLSsoccer.com.


text:
/ 2014 / By JD Stewart
Vol. 5, #11 – October 2014
Official Newsletter
Texas Association of Magicians
for all magicians everywhere!
Stars in Action
Austin Magic Auction
Bits and Pieces of Interesting Stuff
Presidential Citations
DEALT – Richard Turner Documentary
Message from the President Dear Texas Magicians,
There are plenty of good reasons to attend the TAOM convention next year in Austin — the camaraderie, the learning, the dealers' room.
But to these, I'll add one more: the women magicians!
Come join us in Austin next Labor Day Weekend to see great close-up, stage and comedy magic from some of the most talented women in our field. And for the first time in its 70-year history, TAOM will host an all-female evening show. "Magic, Music, Women & Weirdness" will feature such stars as Kyrstyn Lambert, Jade, Suzanne, Margaret Steele, Becky Blaney, Mandy Farrell, Randi Rains, Ali Shelley and Tiny Bubbles. It's absolutely not to be missed.
But the Sept. 4-7 gathering also will include an outstanding line up of even more magicians. Interested in close-up? John Carney, author of Carneycopia and one of magic's best and insightful teachers, will perform and lecture. Need help with stage movement or blocking your act? Bob Fitch — well known Broadway actor, magician and coach to the mega stars — will provide invaluable insights. Ready to increase your business with summer reading performances? Ken Scott, an outstanding family entertainer from Atlanta, will perform a show from his summer reading program and show you how to structure a magic reading show for schools and libraries. There is so much more!
Information on the convention hotel (Sheraton Austin at the Capitol), Magic Camp for kids and how to register can be found on our website: www.taom.org/2015/convention-registration
November is the time to be thankful, a time to remember and a time to embrace those who enrich our lives. I'm thankful for a lot of things, including an extraordinary team working steadfastly to make the 2015 TAOM Convention the best ever.
May your home be filled with laughter, happiness and magic!
Happy Thanksgiving ,
Trixie Bond
President, 2015 TAOM
2015 Convention Update
Krystyn Lambert – just one of the many lovely ladies you'll see at the 2015
TAOM Convention.
Krystyn Lambert has become one of the most recognized female magicians in the world. Her extensive domestic and international television performances and critical acclaim within the community of magicians caught the eye of Criss Angel, who has taken her as his protégé. She was featured on his hit Spike TV series, BeLIEve, and appeared in his live show at the Luxor in Las Vegas with a brand new act for six months running. She is currently in preparations for a 2015 tour.
After starring in the award-winning documentary, Make Believe, the U.S. State Department invited Krystyn to travel through Asia. She shared her passions for magic and philosophy, educating teens about critical thinking and personal goal setting. This dedication prompted Teen Vogue to name her one of the Four Youth Activists to Watch. Recently the Magic Castle in Hollywood awarded Krystyn the coveted Junior Achievement Award, proclaiming her "a magical ambassador throughout the world."
In addition to performing, Krystyn studied at UCLA in the department of philosophy, honors, with a focus on causation, and will begin her graduate work at UNLV. She serves the James Randi Educational Foundation, where her experiences in magic and philosophical inquiry meet. Krystyn is concentrating her efforts there on the One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge, acting as its Associate Director.
She will bring her captivating magic to Austin in 2015 to tantalize your eyes and tease your brain.
Austin Magic Auction – February 28, 2015
AUSTIN MAGIC AUCTION – Saturday, February 28, 2015
Why, you ask, are we selling an empty pallet??? Well, we're actually selling the 400 pounds of magic tricks and apparatus that was delivered on this pallet. And that's just ONE seller! This magician is offering quite a collection, including Rice Patriotic Ropes, effects from Warren Stephens, Mak Magic, Abbotts, Barry Mitchell, Hughes, Onoaka, Ickle Pickle and more.
There is still time for YOU to be one of the 75 sellers at the "World Famous 2015 Austin Magic Auction." All you have to do is drop me an email at Trixie@trixiebond.com stating your desire to be a seller. I will reply with your seller number and further instructions.
You may review all the rules and auction information on our website http://austinmagicauction.com. Clean out your closets, drawers, garages, storage units and let us turn your unused, unwanted props into cash!
Saturday, February 28, 2015 will be here soon!
Magically,
Trixie Bond. Chairman
2015 Austin Magic Auction
Curt Miller with NEW Magic, Music, & Fun!
Moody Gardens Presents A Magical Christmas 2014
Dinner & Show starring Master Illusionist Curt Miller & Friends
During the past two years at the Moody Gardens Hotel, Curt Miller's Christmas show has been seen by over 15,000 people, receiving rave reviews and standing ovations. This year Curt has enhanced the show with spectacular new illusions complimented with a new score of heartwarming holiday music and imaginative choreography.
Curt has recently acquired Doug Henning's "Crystal Casket" illusion that was used in "The Magic Show" on Broadway back in 1974 and is putting it on stage for the public to enjoy for the first time in over 30 years! About 70% of the show is brand new this year, including a floating lit Christmas Star that looks absolutely amazing.
A Magical Christmas 2014 runs December 18 – 27. Doors open at 6:30 pm for guests to enjoy a sumptuous holiday buffet dinner prepared by renowned Executive Chef Robbin Murphy. The 70-minute spectacular show starts at 8 pm. Come see why families all over Texas are making A Magical Christmas
Dinner and Show an annual holiday tradition. Bring the whole family,
friends and co-workers and prepare for a terrific evening of holiday
song, dance and…Magic! For show and diner tickets visit www.MoodyChristmasShow.com or call 409-683-4186.
The beautiful Moody Gardens Hotel offers packages that include tickets to A Magical Christmas 2014, tickets to the Festival of Lights, and complimentary parking. For reservations call 888-388-8484.
Curt says, "This promises to be our best "A Magical Christmas" yet! I look forward to seeing my fellow magicians and magic enthusiasts, and I thank everyone for supporting my "old-school" big time magic show!"
Magic on the Grill
at Tokyohana Every Thursday and Saturday Night
David Rangel
coordinates a covey of local area magicians who perform close-up magic each
week atop hibachi grills at Tokyohana Grill and Sushi Bar. Come enjoy some
excellent oriental cuisine or sit at the sushi bar and enjoy some sushi and a
drink with some magic on the side.
Where: Tokyohana Grill and Sushi Bar,
3239 Southwest
Freeway, Houston, TX 77027
When: Thursdays from 7:00 – 9:00 p.m. and Saturdays
from 7:00 – 11:00 p.m.
Magic & Fun Company in McKinney – Shows at 7:00 and 9:00 p.m.
at the Improv
In Addison EVERY SUNDAY at 2:00 p.m. Doors
open at 1:00 for lunch and pre-show entertainment.
In Arlington EVERY SUNDAYwww.improv.com for details.
In Houston Ted Schwank and Carter Blackburn take you on a high-energy adventure in magic, illusion, and comedy. For dates and times, go to www.improvhouston.com
Shane Wilson &
Chris Al onzo Performing At Sakura Japanese Steakhouse
Shane Wilson & Chris Alonzo now appear regularly at Pearland's superb hibachi restaurant, Sakura. Catch live performances every Friday and
Saturday beginning at 7:00 p.m. See Chris Alonzo on Fridays and Shane Wilson on Saturdays.
Check Shane's calendar by
Clicking Here for the current schedule of this and other of his public performances.
See Ben Jackson Live
Each Week at Campioni Restaurant in North Housto
Ben Jackson performs
close-up magic on Tuesday and Friday nights when it doesn't conflict with his
busy professional schedule of corporate performances. Catch him when you can.
Campioni – 5419 FM 1960 West in Houston
Phone 281-893-2267 for current information and to make dinner reservations.
Second Saturday Magic Sale at Magic, Etc., 9:00 a.m.,
Forest Park Blvd. at 1-30 in Fort Worth.
Cards in South Austin
The South Austin Card Group meets on the last Saturday of each month, usually at
the home of Ron Cartlidge. Get in touch with Lou Hornung at lhornumg@sbcglobal.net for details and to be added to the meeting notice
distribution list.
Rick Hebert Every
Other Weekend at Claudia's in League City
is performing restaurant magic every other
weekend at Claudio's Restaurant& Piano Bar in League City. Their website
is: http://www.claudiospianobar.com/
Rick will be strolling table-side magic, as well as doing a short magic show on
the main stage every other weekend. Check the website to dates and times.
Monday Night Magic in Arlington
All magic aficionados are invited to attend informal gatherings at Humperdink's Restaurant at LaQuinta Inn, #6 North Six Flags Drive. Bring your cards and props to practice your "chops" in the back room.
DEALT – The Richard Turner Documentary
DEALT- The Richard Turner Documentary
Local Texan documentary director, Luke Korem, is taking on the monumental task of telling the inspiring story of Richard Turner. Now, the DEALT team is looking for help to complete the film through crowd funding on Indiegogo. Check out the campaign for chance to get a copy of the film, autographed items from Richard Turner, and invitations to the film's private premiere in Austin, TX set to screen long before the public release of the movie.
DEALT tells the incredibly inspiring story about one man's relentless pursuit of his dream despite losing his vision. Richard Turner shows that there are few limitations in life. His no excuse attitude motivates people to "win with the hand you've been dealt in life" saying, "no matter what hand you're dealt, don't let anyone tell you you can't play." However, Richard doesn't only say these things. He lives them. His story is full of bigger than life adventures – cliff diving, shark hunting, driving with his deaf friend, run ins with the mob, earning his 6th degree black belt in karate, not to mention being a world class card mechanic – all while being blind. Richard's story is truly a once in a lifetime tale.
He is a phenomenon in the world of magic. For forty years he has dazzled audiences around the globe appearing in Hollywood films, major network TV specials, and performing nightly at the historic Magic Castle in LA. He does it all with only a deck of cards. But for those who observe him closely, they will discover his most amazing feat: Richard Turner is completely blind.
You can be part of this incredible tale by supporting the production. Go to <www.igg.me/at/dealtmovie for details and to see an amazing teaser promo video. The official website is www.dealtmovie.com
Greetings, Compeers!
Please send me your recommendations for magician in your community who might quality for a Presidential Citation from S.A.M. National President Kenrick "Ice" McDonald. Candidates should be a member of S.A.M., active in the local assembly, go above and beyond the call of duty, donate time and magic to worthwhile organizations and events, and have a high respect for magic and its secrets.
Send your nominations to ne and include (1) name of the nominee, assembly affiliation, address, "real" job, position in the assembly, magic interests, efforts to further the art of magic, and community involvement in sharing and giving to others.
I'm sure there are many, many members out there who deserve this recognition! Please consider taking a few minutes of your time to nominate someone.
Sincerely, in Magic, Unity, and Might,
Michael Tallon, S.A.M. South Central Region RVP
mtallon@att.net
So much to do and so few of me. There's magic in the air at our house along with plans for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Both seem to come earlier every year. We have plans for another magical Christmas you might like to share. Let your inner child out and join us at Moody Gardens in Galveston for Curt Miller's magic extravaganza. This will be our third year to pretend we're kids again as we enjoy the movies, animals, sights and sounds of Christmas at Moody Gardens on December 23, 24, & 25. Hope to see you there!
Judy Hollingsworth
TAOM Club Coordinator

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
The 18 Best Movie Quotes Of All Time
(© imago / Entertainment Pictures/AD/United Archives)
John Travolta and Samuel L. Jackson
(© imago / Entertainment Pictures)
Humphrey Bogart and Tim Bolt
(© imago / ZUMA Press)
(© imago / United Archives)
The This Is Spinal Tap cast
Harrison Ford and Chewbacca
Jack Nicholson and Helen Hunt
Charlton Heston in Planet of the Apes
Paul Dano and Daniel Day-Lewis
(© imago / Unimedia Images)
Tom Cruise and Renee Zellweger
Bill Crystal and Meg Ryan
Sydney Poitier and Rod Steiger
Mel Gibson in Braveheart
Ryan O'Neil and Ali MacGraw in Love Story
Legendary movies always have some of the most memorable quotes. The Hollywood Reporter decided to make a list of the top 18 film quotes that are both famous and a huge part of global pop culture. "Let the games begin!"
No. 18: Pulp Fiction (1994) is a true classic. Having just returned from Europe, Vincent explains to his partner Jules about the differences between Europe and the states. "They call it a Royal with cheese," says Vincent while mentioning European fast food to Jules. If you've heard this one, then you'll definitely recognize our next quote...
17th place goes to The treasure of the Sierra Madre (1948) and the quote "Badges? We've got no badges! We don't need no badges! We don't need to show you any stinking badges!"
Number 16 goes to our favorite Hollywood ape King Kong (1933). After King Kong sustains a fatal wound during one of his violent outbreaks, director Carl Denhem tells one of the reporters that his gunshot wound wasn't the only thing that killed him. "Beauty killed the beast!"
The movie Midnight Cowboy (1996) is our number 15. The character Rizzo is trying to cross the street and is almost run over by a taxi. He then famoulsy says, "Hey! I'm walking here! I'm walking here!". This scene was said to be completely improvised which makes it even more legendary!
No.14: In This is Spinal Tap (1984), guitarist Nigel Tufnel shows off his equipment and goes into grave detail about his amps. He explicitly talks about his amplifiers "going up to eleven". This scene is still quoted even today!
Number 12: Star Wars VII (2015) wowed audience worldwide and in it Han Solo famously says to Chewbacca, "Chewie, We're Home" to his fellow travelling companion.
In the 1995 film Clueless, Cher is walking around her high school campus, when one of her schoolmates runs into her and tries to make a move. She quickly pushes the young man away and dishes out some good old 90s slang, witheringly proclaiming, "as if!".
10th: The only person able to deal with Melvin, in As Good As It Gets (1997) is waitress Carol. Over the course of the story, the two develop feelings for each other. When Melvin proclaimed that "you make me want to be a better man", it not only brought tears to Carols eyes, but to audiences' eyes worldwide, too.
9th place goes to blockbuster classic Planet of the Apes (1968). George Taylor etched himself into film history when he said, "Get you filthy paws off me you damn,dirty ape!"
Number 8 on our list is a quote from the drama There Will Be Blood (2007). "I drink your milkshake" ("I drink your milkshake. I drink it alllllllll!") by "Daniel Planview" is one of the most famous quotes in film history.
7th place goes to the quote, "My name is Maximus of Decimus Meridius. Commander of the troops of the north, tribune of the Spanish Legion, loyal servant of the true Emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son, husband to a murdered wife and I will have vengance. In this life or the next" from the 2000 film Gladiator.
6th place goes to one of film history's most famous quotes form the film Jerry Maguire (1996). The scene in which Jerry Maguire confesses his love for Dorothy, was incredibly moving and audiences were moved to tears worldwide when he says, "You complete me!".
5th place goes a quote from the 2008 film Taken. After his daughter and her best friend are kidnapped, Bryan has just 96 hours to save both of them from certain death. He shows he is deadly serious when he vows, "If you let my daughter go, then that'll be the end of it. I will not look for you, I will not pursue you. But if you don't, then I will look for you. I will find you and kill you."
This quote from When Harry Met Sally (1989) takes the number four spot on our list of famous quotes. Some audience members probably had to get out their tissues for this one: "When you realize you want to spend the rest of your life with somebody, you want that the rest of your life start as soon as possible!". How romantic!
3rd place goes to...the police station scene in In the Heat of the Night in which Virgil is asked what they called him in Philadelphia. He responds with the simple phrase, "They call me Mr. Tibbs!".
2nd place goes to William Wallace's famous speech in the movie Braveheart (1995). With these inspiring words, William is able to lead his army to victory, "Maybe they'll take our lives, but they will never take our freedom.".
This quote from the film Love Story takes first place! Jennifer Cavalleri and Ryan O'Neil wowed audiences everywhere with their performances, but nothing topped the moment when Jennifer sates, "Love means never having to say you're sorry".
We never forget a good quote from a great movie! Here are eighteen of the best!


text:
Air Pollution > Press Releases
To meet air quality standards, Delhi needs a 65 per cent cut in pollution levels - says new CSE analysis
This, despite ongoing pollution control efforts having stabilised and lowered the very high levels of PM2.5 in the capital
CSE analysis released at Round Table on the next steps for National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) – what other cities in India should do. 75 per cent of monitored cities 'critically' polluted
CPCB air quality data submitted to Parliament show that three-year average annual PM2.5 level in 2016-2018 is 25 per cent lower than the three-year average level in 2012-2014.
Between 2011 and 2018-19, days with severe plus PM2.5 levelshave lessened after 2015; pattern, duration and frequency of smog episodes arechanging, and more days with lower air pollution levelsare recorded during 2016 to 2018-19.
Overall peak levels reducing over time, while number of days meeting the standard is increasing during summer and monsoon months.
Winter smog episodes getting fewer but longer – a change from the earlier trend in which the episodes were frequent and random. The onset of winter pollution is also getting delayed.
Only 3 per cent of cities have pollution levels below the standards -- NCAP aims to reduce particulate pollution by 20-30 per cent, but for most cities, the challenge of target reduction is as high as 40-76 per cent.
With clean air action plans taking shape in 122 noncompliant cities and Delhi entering its next phase of action, CSE calls for third generation solution-oriented multi-sector action at a scale that ensuresenforcement and compliance.
New Delhi, August 30, 2019: Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) has released new results from its on-going analysis of air quality trends in Delhi to highlight Delhi's struggle with air pollution and what it takes to tame and control pollution. After the initiation of comprehensive clean air action plan and graded response action plan,there are early signs of stabilisation and bend in pollution curve, increased number of days in cleaner air quality index categories, and change in the pattern of smog episodes.
The analysis of annual air quality data submitted by the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) to the Parliament shows that the three-year average of PM2.5 levels during 2016-2018 is 25 per cent lower than the 2011-2014 baseline (three-year average). However, CSE cautions that even after this reduction and stabilisation, Delhi faces the daunting challenge of 65 per cent reduction from the current baseline to meet the clean air standards for PM2.5.
This stabilisiation has been possible because of multi-sector intervention to clean up the vehicle fleet and fuels, tightening of industrial pollution control and phase out of dirty industrial fuels of petcoke, furnace oil and coal, shutting down of down all coal power plants in the city, action on brick kilns and hotspot areas, and dust control in construction sites with some efforts to control pollution from waste. Says AnumitaRoychowdhury, executive director-research and advocacy, CSE: "While this level of action has helped in stabilizing the problem, much harder decisions and aggressive action at a scale is needed to achieve 65 per cent cut in PM2.5 to meet the clean air targets."
Delhi is the microcosm of change that has thrown up important evidence and lessons for other cities. This city and the rest of the country requires massive mobility transition, clean energy and technology transition, and waste reduction transition at a regional level to help meet clean air targets. Delhi and other cities need to be prepared for third generation action for clean air in terms of implementation, enforcement, compliance, and institutional capacity to implement design rich solutions across all key sectors of pollution. This was discussed bya select group of officials, experts and civil society actors at the Round Table discussion on the next steps for the National Clean Air Programme (NCAP), organized by CSE recently.
To view the presentation on this, please Click here
Delhi's pollution trend: A learning curve
CSE has carried out a detailed analysis of particulate pollution trends in Delhi to understand how on-going action is impacting the trend, concentration of pollution and pattern of smog episodes.
Source of air quality data: Air quality data used for this analysis has been obtained from the CPCB's online portal "Central Control Room for Air Quality Management - All India" for the period 2011-2019 (August). Data has been downloaded in batches spread across April-August 2019. Data is from 1 January 2010 to 26 August 2019 from all the 38 real-time monitoring stations in Delhi. Number of stations working each year is different as substantial numbers were added over a period of time. It may be noted available data from all stations for each year has been used for the analysis considering that the available data is a proxy for the entire city. Even if this creates some bias, it is indicative of the overall trend.
It may also be noted that the there are more data gaps for the older stations operating during 2010 -2014. There are major gaps in data from for the year 2014- 2015. Overall, 8 stations have data entries in 2010, and 3 stations for 2014 and 2015.This improve subsequently with 37 out 38 stations reporting AQI data in 2019 fairly well. This analysis includes annual trend, daily trend, hourly trend as well as 15 minutes trend. Delhi's mean AQI has been calculated as mean of all the station working and reporting data for that timestamp. This also includes data submitted by the CPCB to the Parliament.
Long term trend in PM2.5 levels show stabilization and drop: According to the new data submitted by CPCB to the Parliamentin 2019, the annual average PM2.5 levels have stabilized and dropped. The three-year average (2016 to 2018) has droppedby 25 per cent from the three-year average from 2012 and 2014.
Pollution peaks getting lower: During the early years of this decade when action had slowed down in the city, PM2.5 concentration used to shoot upto 13-14 times the 24-hr standard. During the later years of 2016 to 2108 levels are still going high due to high levels and meteorological conditions, PM2.5 levels have peaked 7-10 times the standard.
Number of severely polluted days a year reducing: During the earlier years of this decade 2011-14, the number of days with severe levels (more than 250 microgramme per cum) ranged between 33-52 days during the winter months. This has reduced during 2016-18, ranging between 20-34daysduring winter. Similarly, the number of severe plus AQI days (more than 300microgramme per cum) ranged between 20 to 40 days during winter of 2011 to 2014 and subsequently during the winter of 2016 to 2018-19, this reduced to less than 15 days.
Pattern of smog episode changing – from short and frequent to fewer with longer duration: Number and frequency of smog episodes is changing over time. Smog episode is defined as three consecutive days with severe levels of pollution. During the earlier years the smog episodes were numerous and frequent and of shorter duration. In the later years, there are fewer episodes but are mega episodes of longer duration. For instance, during 2016-17 winter, out of total of 23 days with severe pollution levels, 16 days were consecutive and continuous – forming a mega smog episode. This started on October 27, 2016 with air quality deteriorating to severe plus situation on October 30, 2016 (Diwali day) and continued till November 11. During the winter of 2017 and 2018, duration of one smog episode has lasted 6-9 consecutive days. There were roughly 2-3 relatively long smog episodes.
Onset and dissipation of winter pollution is more delayed: During the earlier years of 2011-2015, the days with very poor AQI used to begin during the first week of October. This is changing. During 2016, 2017 and 2018 days with very poor AQI started to build up around October 15-18. Similarly, during the earlier years of 2011-15, the very poor AQI would continue till the end of Februaryor even beginning of March. But during the subsequent years of 2016 to 2018-19, very poor category days started to taper off by first week of February. Overall, it can be seen that the winter pollution spread has somewhat reduced – if considered from both end then by almost by a month.
More low-pollution days during summer and monsoon months: During the summer and monsoon (April to August) number of days with AQI meeting the air quality standard for PM2.5 has increased. During 2011 the total number of days meeting the standard was 40days during these months; 2012 --7 days, 2013 -- 5 days and 2014 -- 0 days. This subsequently increased to 39 days in 2015,55 days in 2016, about 77 days in 2017, about 73 days in 2018 and 60 days upto August in 2019.
During these months multiple good days were recorded (50% below the standard) -- 2017 (16 days), 2018 (11 days) and 2019 (14 days).
From widely erratic and high trends in spikes to more stable spikes: More granular analysis of 15 minutes trend between 2010 to 2018-19 show that during the earlier years the minute 15 minute trend was widely erratic with very high and random spikes. But that reduced in subsequent years. Analysis of the 15-minutely data shows that the pollution level were high and erratic (wildly fluctuating within a day) during 2010-15. They have become less fluctuating and consistent in their trend patterns. It is also noted that pollution peaks are tapering off relatively faster now compared to earlier years. Similarly, during monsoon season there are lesser instances of pollution spikes during 2016-19 than earlier years.
Lessons from Delhi
Need more broad based and stronger action at the regional level with stringent compliance to prevent winter pollution from worsening: Delhi cannot afford to lose momentum and undo the gains made so far. Comprehensive action plan will have to be implemented for systemic changes and sustained gain across the region.
Other cities need to take the cue from Delhi's experience:
The share of cities in critical category for PM10 has increased from 60 per cent in 2007 to 75 per cent in 2018, says the CPCB data. There is a drastic drop in the number of cities with particulate levels below the standard. This has reduced from 13 per cent in 2007 to 3 per cent in 2018. There are no cities which are in low category (50 per cent below the standard) during the period of last 12 years.
As 122 cities are preparing and implementing clean air action plans under the National Clean Air Programme (NCAP), it is important to understand from Delhi's experience what it takes to stabilise and bend the pollution curve. Delhi and the National Capital Region have been the first to begin implementation of comprehensive action plan and emergency action plan to mitigate air pollution.The second phase has gathered momentum after 2015 after an initial lull.
This has triggered wide ranging action in different sectors. In the transportation sector CNG programme has been scaled up, emissions standards have improved to BSIV level and is poised to move to BSVI in 2020, and 10 ppm sulphur fuels have already been introduced in Delhi and NCR. To curb diesel emissions entry of 10 year old truck is banned and each truck has to pay an environment compensation charge. Big diesel cars and SUVs have to environment pollution charge and more than 10 year old diesel cars cars are banned.
In industry and power plant sectors, all coal-based power plants are shut in Delhi. Dirty fuels including petcoke, furnace oil, and coal have been banned in all sectors in Delhi. The ban on use of furnace oil and pet coke has been extended to surrounding states of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan. This has further triggered notification of SOx and NOxstandars for 34 groups of industry in the country and ban on import of petcoke. About 400 brick kilns in the region have moved to improved zigzag technology to reduce emissions. Several industrial units in Delhi have moved to natural gas.
Says Roychowdhury: "Nature of this action is not small. But this has helped to only stabilise the problem and bend the curve slightly. This only indicates how much more will have to be done at a scale and with effectiveness across the region to make a difference."
The areas that have proven to be most difficult and complex to move action are mobility and transport, clean energy and technology transition in key sectors, waste burning and dust control. Solutions are known and scripted in the comprehensive action plan. But how will this happen. Move towards clean air can slow down if solutions do not work in reality and they are not implemented at a scale that can make a difference. The next mantra is about enforcement and compliance.
For more information, interviews etc, please contact Sukanya Nair of The CSE Media Resource Centre, sukanya.nair@cseindia.org, 8816818864.
Tags: Air quality, Pollution, CPCB, Smogs, Diwali pollution,
National Clean Air Programme (NCAP): Next Steps to meet Clean Air targets
AQI Heatmaps
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text:
LAW 'N HISTORY: Belle of death
R. Marc Kantrowitz
Lonely men came to the doorstep of Belle Sorenson Gunness one by one with their life savings in hand.
Dreams of newfound wealth and comfort on Belle's farm in La Porte, Indiana danced in their heads as they responded to her matrimonial advertisements.
The stout Norwegian-born widow and mother had the appearances of a busy and well-to-do housewife. Most of the many of men who arrived on her rural altar and entered her farmhouse were never seen again.
Belle was born Brynhild Paulsdatter Størset on November 11, 1859 in Norway. She was raised in poverty on a small farm until she fled in her early twenties to Chicago, where she joined a sister. Brynhild adopted a new name as she ventured into a new homeland drenched she believed in wealth and opportunity.
In 1884, the newly monikered Belle married Mads Sorenson and within two years opened a confectionery store. Business was slow. Within a year the shop mysteriously burned down. An insurance payout allowed Belle and Mads to buy a home. That too was consumed by fire. Another payout and another home.
The couple had four children- Caroline, Axel, Myrtle, and Lucy. When both Caroline and Axel died bearing symptoms of colitis, they also bore signs of having been poisoned. They also had life insurance policies. When Mads passed away on July 30, 1900, it was the only day on which his two life insurance policies overlapped. While poisoning was again suspected, the family doctor who had been treating him placed the cause of death on heart failure. An $8,500 insurance payout allowed Belle to buy a farm on the outskirts of La Porte in 1901. She moved there with her two remaining children and an adopted child named Jennie.
A year later, in 1902, Belle remarried, this time to Peter Gunness in La Porte. Eight months later, Peter died. Belle reported that part of a sausage-grinding machine had fallen from a shelf and fatally struck hit him on the head. Another insurance payout. Shortly after his death, Belle gave birth to her next child, Philip. Three years later, in 1906, when her adopted child Jennie dropped out of sight, Belle casually explained that Jennie had left for school in California.
With Peter dead, Belle managed the farm by hiring workers. She also started taking out matrimonial advertisements in newspapers. Neighbors recalled seeing middle-aged men come to visit but never leave. In 1906, she hired a farmhand named Ray Lamphere. When Lamphere grew enraptured with Belle and jealous of her other suitors, he was fired.
The tranquility of La Porte was blown asunder in the early hours of April 28, 1908 when Joe Maxson, hired to replace Lamphere, awoke to the strong odor of fire in his room. With flames lapping at his feet, he escaped unscathed. The destroyed house wasn't so fortunate.
As the authorities combed the ruins, four bodies were discovered. Three were Belle's children- Myrtle, Lucy and Philip. The fourth body- headless- was thought to be that of Belle, especially when teeth matching hers' were discovered in the ashes.
The investigation lasted into the early weeks of May, 1908. Crowds gathered to watch as the authorities poured through the wreckage, soon pulling out corpses from garbage-laden pits 150 feet behind Belle's house. At least ten men, two women and numerous bone fragments were found. The bodies had been drugged, bludgeoned, dismembered with a meat clever and covered with lye to dissolve the remains. Among the dead was Belle's adopted child Jennie.
The coroner concluded that the headless woman was Belle. In short order, former handyman Ray Lamphere was charged with arson and four counts of murder. His trial started November 9, 1908 to a packed county courthouse. Tickets were sold for seats. Overflowing crowds spilled into the hallways and onto the lawn. The story went national.
The testimony and evidence were conflicting, including whether Belle was even dead, which inured to Lamphere's benefit. While he was found guilty of arson, he was acquitted of the murders, and sentenced to twenty years. Within a year, he was dead, of tuberculosis.
As he lay dying, Lamphere reportedly made a deathbed confession- Belle, who he assisted with her murderous ways, was still alive. The headless corpse was that of a housekeeper, another of Belle's victims. She also killed her own children, arranged the bodies in the basement, threw in her false teeth, burned the house and fled. Lamphere helped, but she had betrayed him, leaving by a different route.
Theories of Belle's escape abounded. One had her, in 1931, living in California as Esther Carlson, who had been charged with poisoning a wealthy man in order to steal his money. Carlson died of tuberculosis before her trial, and her identity was never confirmed despite a physical resemblance to Belle. Numerous sightings were made throughout the years in different parts of the country, all to no avail. In November 2007, almost one hundred years after the fire, the headless corpse from the fire was exhumed in an effort to learn its true identity. DNA tests were inconclusive, but efforts were ongoing in the hope of finding a reliable source for comparison. What was true and beyond contradiction however were the fates of all of Belle's children and her many other victims.
This article is based primarily on "Belle Gunness: The Lady Bluebeard," by Janet Langlois. Amal Bala assisted with the research.


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Syria–Turkey border
The Syrian town of Kessab, with the peak of Mount Aqra (Turkey) seen in the background
The border between the Syrian Arab Republic and the Republic of Turkey is about 822 kilometres (511 mi) long.[1] It runs across Upper Mesopotamia for some 400 km, crossing the Euphrates reaching as far as the Tigris, following the Southern Turkish stretch of the Baghdad Railway roughly along the 37th parallel between the 37th and 42nd eastern meridians. In the west, it surrounds the Turkish Hatay Province, following the course of the Orontes River and reaching the Mediterranean coast at the foot of Jebel Aqra.
The Turkish borders as determined in the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne
The current Syro–Turkish border was established in the Partitioning of the Ottoman Empire after World War I, based on the Sykes–Picot Agreement between United Kingdom and France in 1916. It was the northern border of the State of Aleppo, the Mandatory Syrian Republic and Syrian Republic, followed by the short-lived United Arab Republic, and since 1961 has been the border between the modern states of Syria and Turkey.
The approximate line of most of the border was set by the Treaty of Ankara in 1921. It was delimited more precisely between Meidan Ekbis and Nusaybin in 1926, and between Nusaybin and the tripoint with Iraq in 1929.[1] A special case is the Turkish Hatay Province, which remained autonomous until 1923, then became part of Syria as the Sanjak of Alexandretta (Franco-Syrian Treaty of Independence (1936)), briefly became independent as the Hatay State in 1938 before being annexed by Turkey as the Hatay Province in 1939. The new international border was demarcated by a Franco-Turkish commission in 1938/9, with a protocol of 3 May 1939 mentioning 448 boundary markers placed in numerical order, and an additional protocol signed in Antioch on 19 May 1939 mentioning some additional markers. Some further changes were made in an agreement signed in Ankara on 23 June 1939.[2]
Because of Turkey's membership in NATO (1952) and OSCE (1973), its border to Syria also forms an outer border of these organisations. Since the Syrian Civil War broke out in 2011, tensions across the border have increased, and there have been a number of clashes; there has also been a substantial influx of refugees across the border to Turkey.[3] Turkey began construction of a border barrier in 2014.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, around 310 Syrians civilians, including 90 children and women, have been killed by the Turkish gendarmerie at the Syrian–Turkish border since the beginning of the Syrian civil war.[4] According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, 361 civilians have been killed, including 69 children and 34 women.[5] The Human Rights Watch has accused the Turkish Armed Forces of shooting at families fleeing across the border, including an instance where an infant was shot.[6]
GeographyEdit
Map of the Tigris–Euphrates river system across the eastern part of the Syro-Turkish border
Due to the annexation of the Hatay Province, the post-1939 Syrian–Turkish border touches the Mediterranean coast at Ras al-Bassit, south of Mount Aqra (35°55′44″N 35°55′04″E / 35.9288°N 35.9178°E / 35.9288; 35.9178). The Hatay province borders the Syrian Latakia and Idlib governorates. The westernmost (and southernmost) border crossing is at 35°54′18″N 36°00′36″E / 35.905°N 36.010°E / 35.905; 36.010, some 3 km west of Yayladağı. The border reaches its southernmost point at 35°48′29″N 36°09′07″E / 35.808°N 36.152°E / 35.808; 36.152, 2 km west of Bidama, to include the now-abandoned village of Topraktutan (Beysun) in Hatay.[7]
Karadouran / al-Samara beach near Kessab, Syria, along the Syrian-Turkish borderline, where Mount Dyunag ends up in the Mediterranean Sea
The border now runs north and east, following the Orontes River for a part of its course, where in 2011 construction of a Syria–Turkey Friendship Dam began (but has since been delayed due to the Syrian Civil War), and east to the Bab al-Hawa Border Crossing on the İskenderun–Aleppo road, then further north to the border between Hatay and Gaziantep Province, where it turns sharply east outside of Meidan Ekbis (Afrin District), at 36°49′48″N 36°39′54″E / 36.830°N 36.665°E / 36.830; 36.665.
With the exception of the Hatay province, the Turkish side of the border is entirely within the Southeastern Anatolia Region. East of Meidan Ekbis, the border stretches eastward for some 400 km, roughly following the 37th parallel north and passing the 37th to 42nd meridians, to the Turkish–Syrian–Iraqi tripoint on the Tigris River. On the Turkish side, the European route E90 runs alongside the length the border, crossing the Euphrates at Birecik and the Tigris at Cizre.
The Syrian Aleppo Governorate has a 221 kilometres (137 mi) long northern boundary with the Turkish Kilis, Gaziantep, and Şanlıurfa provinces.
For a significant distance, from Çobanbey to Nusaybin the border follows the tracks of the Konya-Baghdad Railway. It crosses the Euphrates River at Jarabulus/Karkamış and passes north of the border town of Kobanî (Ayn al Arab) (built in 1912 as part of the Baghdad Railway construction project). The Raqqa Governorate's Tell Abyad District borders the Turkish Şanlıurfa Province, including the divided border town of Tell Abyad/Akçakale. The Al-Hasakah Governorate, still bordering Şanlıurfa Province, has a border crossing at Ras al-Ayn, connecting to Ceylanpınar. Some 100 km east of Ceylanpınar, the border passes the border town of Nusaybin in the Turkish Mardin Province (ancient Nisibis, the birthplace of Ephraim the Syrian), next to Syrian Qamishli. After another 100 km it finally reaches the Tigris River south of Cizre.
For the final 30 km, the border now follows the course of the Tigris, turning towards the south-east, until it reaches the Syrian–Turkish–Iraqi triple-point at 37°06′22″N 42°21′18″E / 37.106°N 42.355°E / 37.106; 42.355.
Border crossingsEdit
From west to east, as of 1 July 2019.[8]
Control on Syrian side
1 Yayladağı Kessab Road Restricted Government of Syria
2 Kızılçat Samira Closed Free Syrian Army affiliated groups
3 Topraktutan Yunesiyeh Closed Free Syrian Army affiliated groups
4 Aşağıpulluyazı Ein al-Bayda Restricted Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
5 Güveççi Kherbet Eljoz Restricted Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
6 Karbeyaz (Yiğitoğlu) Darkush Closed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
7 Ziyaret Al-Alani Closed Nationalist Islamists
8 Cilvegözü, near Reyhanlı Bab al-Hawa Road Open Local civil administration
9 Bükülmez Atme Restricted Nationalist Islamists
10 Hatay Hammamı Al Hammam Restricted Free Syrian Army affiliated groups
11 İslahiye Meidan Ekbis Railway Closed Turkish-backed rebels
12 Öncüpınar al-Salameh Road Open Turkish-backed rebels
13 Çobanbey Al-Rai Railway Restricted Turkish-backed rebels
14 Karkamış Jarabulus Road Open Turkish-backed rebels
15 Mürşitpınar Ayn al-Arab (Kurdish: Kobanê) Railway Closed Autonomous administration (Kurdish-led)
16 Akçakale Tall Abyad (Kurdish: Girê Spî) Road Closed Autonomous administration (Kurdish-led)
17 Ceylanpınar Ras al-Ayn Road Closed Autonomous administration (Kurdish-led)
18 Şenyurt Al-Darbasiyah Road Closed Autonomous administration (Kurdish-led)
19 Nusaybin Qamishli Road, railway Closed Government of Syria
20 Cizre Al-Malikiyah Closed Autonomous administration (Kurdish-led)
Syria–Turkey barrier
Syria–Turkey relations
Syrian–Turkish border clashes during the Syrian Civil War
Al-Jazira Province
Refugees of the Syrian Civil War
Immigration to Turkey
^ a b Syria – Turkey Boundary Archived 2008-02-27 at the Wayback Machine, International Boundary Study No. 163, The Geographer, Office of the Geographer, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, US Department of State (7 March 1978).
^ Syria-Turkey Boundary (1978). "L'Accordo franco-turco del 23 giugno 1939 per la cessione del Sangiaccato di Alessandretta", Oriente Moderno Anno 19, Nr. 8 (Agosto 1939), pp. 438-443.
^ "Syria refugees brave mines, machineguns to reach Turkish sanctuary". Reuters. 6 April 2012. "IOM distributes aid to Syrian refugees – Society". KUNA. 6 April 2012. Retrieved 23 February 2013.
^ http://www.syriahr.com/en/?p=73547
^ "More casualties raise to about 70, the number of children victims of the Turkish Jandarma's shooting out of 361 civilians". Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. April 23, 2018. Retrieved May 23, 2018.
^ "Turkey/Syria: Border Guards Shoot, Block Fleeing Syrians". Human Rights Watch. February 3, 2018.
^ The village's population was 583 in 1980 (Türk Dünyası Araştırmaları Vakfı, 1986, p. 142); it was later evacuated due to landslides. There is now a police station and a monument marking the southernmost point of Turkey. Topraktutan forms a small salient into Syrian territory. It corresponds to the Turkish airspace claimed to have been violated prior to the 2015 Russian Sukhoi Su-24 shootdown.
^ "Turkey / Syria: Border Crossings Status (1 July 2019)". ReliefWeb. UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. 1 July 2019. Retrieved 12 July 2019.
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Syria–Turkey_border&oldid=906536699"


The nephew of Anis Amri, the suspected Berlin truck attacker who was gunned down by Italian police, has been arrested in the hunt for Amri's accomplices.
Tunisia's interior ministry said the nephew and two other suspected jihadists, aged between 18 and 27, were detained on Friday and were members of a "terrorist cell" connected to Tunisian-born Amri.
It made no direct link between the trio and the Berlin attack on Monday, when Amri is believed to have hijacked a truck and used it to mow down revellers at a Christmas market, killing 12 people.
Amri, 24, then went on the run and was the focus of a frantic four-day manhunt, before being shot dead by police in Milan after opening fire first.
The Tunisian interior ministry said in a statement that Amri had sent money to his nephew so he could join him in Germany and had allegedly urged him "to pledge allegiance to Daesh (IS)".
The unnamed nephew also claimed that his uncle was the leader of a jihadist group based in Germany and known as the Abu al-Walaa brigade, it added.
The arrests come as German authorities are racing to find out whether Amri had help from accomplices before or after the attack.
"It is very important for us to determine whether there was a network of accomplices... in the preparation or the execution of the attack, or the flight of the suspect," federal prosecutor Peter Frank said.
Seven of the victims killed in the attack were German nationals, a federal police spokeswoman told AFP. The other five came from the Czech Republic, Italy, Israel, Poland and Ukraine.
The fact that Amri was able to travel to Italy unhindered despite a Europe-wide arrest warrant has raised uncomfortable questions for intelligence agencies.
German security services have also faced criticism for not keeping better tabs on Amri before the Berlin carnage, even though he was a known criminal with links to the Islamist scene.
But Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere denied there had been a blanket security failure.
It "is impossible to monitor every person suspected of posing a threat around the clock," he told the newspaper Bild am Sonntag.
Chancellor Angela Merkel has pledged a "comprehensive" analysis of how Amri was able to slip through the net and vowed to speed up the deportation of rejected asylum seekers like him.
The fugitive was killed after firing at two officers who had stopped him for a routine identity check Friday near Milan's Sesto San Giovanni railway station.
Media reports said a train ticket found in Amri's backpack suggested he had boarded a train in Chambery, southeastern France, and passed through Turin before arriving in Milan.
Milan police said Amri had a few hundred euros on him but no telephone.
Amri left Tunisia for Italy in 2011.
He spent four years in prison there for starting a fire in a refugee centre, during which time he was apparently radicalised.
After serving his sentence he made his way to Germany in 2015, taking advantage of Europe's Schengen system of open borders - as he did on his return to Italy this week.
German security agencies began monitoring Amri in March, suspecting he was planning break-ins to raise cash for automatic weapons to carry out an attack.
But the surveillance was stopped in September because Amri was seen primarily as a small-time drug dealer.
In a separate case, police said Saturday they had released two Kosovo-born brothers suspected of planning to attack a shopping centre in western Germany.
With the country on high alert, their arrests on Friday had made global headlines.
As Germany celebrated Christmas Eve meanwhile, locals and tourists in Berlin visited the Christmas market targeted in the truck assault, and many took a moment to quietly light a candle or lay flowers for the victims.
"It's really nice there are so many people here and it's still open," Marianne Weile, 56, from Copenhagen said.
"So even though you are really sad about what happened you can still keep Christmas. It's not like this crazy guy ruined it for everybody."


text:
Q: Format integer in ASP.NET I have a difficult time to format integer in asp script
The format of the integer right now is ######. I would like to format it to ####-##. For ex: Format 201602 to 2016-02. Can anyone help me on this? Thanks much!
    <asp:DropDownList ID="From" runat="server" DataSourceID="ShipDate"DataTextField="intYearMonth"> <asp:ListItem Text="" Value="0"/> </asp:DropDownList>

A: You can accomplish this after everything loads with a For Each...
Note - No error checking here you may want to handle that...
For Each item As ListItem In DropDownList1.Items
   item.Text = item.Insert(4, "-")
Next

Output - 2016-02

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Orangeville RC's is a place for people to talk, discuss and share anything and everything related to RC cars!
A Great Fundraiser for Local Needs! We Support Guelph and it shows!
The Eramosa River Crayfish Yodeling Club is for the men and women that enjoy the woods surrounding the beautiful Eramosa. It's gonna be a yodel.
The sports club is purposed to provide regular opportunities for physical fitness through CoED Recreational Sports Leagues in the local community.


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We have begun the process of adopting a sweet teenage girl from Colombia!
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In giving a little background to our decision to adopt, we were of the belief that our family was complete as God has blessed us with two precious daughters. However, in September 2018 we were challenged with an opportunity that we didn't see coming.
Through much prayer and wrestling with God over the decision, we decided to not live out our faith in fear one more day and move forward in this process. Our future daughter needs a family and what better picture of the Gospel can we share with her than adopting her into ours just as our Heavenly Father has adopted us into His through Christ.
WE NEED YOUR HELP in this mission to share the Gospel with this precious girl and give her a forever family through adoption.
Our needed fundraising goal will be $31,000 to help us in bringing her home. The adoption process requires payments along the way in order to move to each next step. Due to our potential daughter's age, we need to move as quickly as possible as children are not allowed to be adopted by Americans past the age of 16.
Please commit to pray for our family and future daughter during this journey and please prayerfully consider giving generously.
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With support from DJs as diverse as David Rodigan and Mark Lamarr, plus support slots over the last twelve months for Fat Freddy's Drop and The Selecter, Brighton dub outfit Resonators are starting to cause a real storm both in the reggae community and beyond.
Their new single, "B.A.S.I.C.", is an anthemic slice of cross-over modern dub, with vocals led by Kassia Zermon, that features a plethora of remixes from some of the finest producers around. Reggae don Wrongtom (Ninja Tune / Tru Thoughts) comes through with an old skool jungle mix of epic dance floor proportions; Leeds based producer Debian Blak turns the bass up to 11 for a dubstep tinged joint complete with just a hint of d&b; newcomers from Brighton AK-DK deliver a stuttering, percussive re-work complete with dirty synths and fx; and finally Resonators themselves offer up a celestial dub as only they know how.
It's the taste of things to come for the band's debut album "The Constant", due to be released on Wah Wah 45s this November!


text:
ING Global Economics Team
ING Economic and Financial Analysis
December economic update: Pre-Christmas excitement
ANALYSIS | 12/3/2020 1:36:58 PM
Positive vaccine news leaves little doubt that 2021 will be much brighter than 2020. But with mass vaccination programmes likely to take time, tight Covid-19 restrictions still in place and political drama ongoing in Europe, the global economy is not out of the woods just yet.
Wishful thinking, herd behaviour or just swarm intelligence? Professional crystal ball watchers broadly seem to agree that 2021 will be far better than 2020, at least for the economy. Admittedly, it requires a lot of imagination to believe that next year could be worse than this. The UK's decision to approve a Covid vaccine and expectations that the US will soon follow are clearly the strongest drivers behind this optimism. As illustrated in our Global Macro Outlook, we share this confidence and have, for the first time in a long while, tilted the risks to our growth outlooks to the upside.
Does a broad consensus on economic improvement in 2021 now mean that we can finally lean back, relax and enjoy the Christmas season? Not entirely. We liken it to a football club which invests heavily in promising new players at the start of the season: you know the golden future will come but you're also prepared for some nail-biting and disappointing matches before the investment really pays off. The eurozone knows all about this.
Most countries are still mired in a second lockdown and while there will be some easing of the restrictions for the Christmas break, this is likely to be followed by new lockdowns in January, suggesting the double-dip will be extended into the first quarter of 2021. The US is holding up relatively well and hopes for fiscal stimulus have improved growth prospects for 2021, while at the same time the Thanksgiving period could still lead to new lockdowns in the coming weeks. Only Asia seems to be going strong.
Europe faces a particularly dramatic period before it can ease down for Christmas. The Brexit negotiations and the complex package of the EU's multi-annual budget, the rule of law mechanism and the Recovery Fund are still undecided and, to say the least, complex. Our base case is still that there will be two typical European fudges on both but not before several nightlong discussions and not without the risk of failure. Europe also seems to be running behind the US and the UK when it comes to the approval of the vaccine. Here, a first announcement by the European Medicines Agency is only expected at the very end of December, potentially delaying the rollout of the vaccine. So keep a close eye on Europe in the coming days and weeks. This should be the place of pre-Christmas action and excitement.
If swarm intelligence is right and 2021 is the year of the first synchronised global recovery in a long while, more structural economic topics should re-emerge very quickly.
Think of the economic power shift from the West towards Asia, the need to tackle climate change and accelerate sustainability and digitalisation. Discussions on the eurozone's Japanification and implications for government debt will be very hot topics as well. The only constant next year should be central banks whose only real role will be to accompany and support the economic recovery and fiscal stimulus. More monetary stimulus is hardly possible and would have very little impact on the real economy anyway while premature normalisation would run a high risk of choking off the recovery.
In the end, we think 2021 should clearly be a better year but not necessarily a quieter year. Therefore, let's enjoy the Christmas break as long as it lasts. Merry Christmas.
US: One last hurdle
US output has rebounded strongly, but the recovery seems set to lose steam over the next couple of months. Rising Covid cases are putting hospitals under pressure and containment measures are increasingly being introduced across the nation. This will inevitably have economic implications, but the scale of the impact is uncertain. Right now, restaurant, bar and gym industries are bearing the most stringent regulations, and the increase in initial jobless claims suggests jobs are being lost.
While there is the imminent prospect of an approved vaccine, the logistics of distributing it to more than 300 million people means that containment measures are unlikely to be fully relaxed for several more months. We cannot rule out the possibility of a negative GDP reading in 1Q, reflecting weakness in the December-January period.
Nonetheless, once the vaccination programme has reached a critical mass, perhaps in late 1Q, we should see a vigorous period of economic activity. The combination of pent up demand and travel, hospitality and entertainment industries fully reopening and hiring workers plus a fiscal stimulus of the order of $1 trillion under President Joe Biden should be a heady mix. We expect the US to have recovered all the lost pandemic output in late 3Q/early 4Q.
There will be questions over when we will see fiscal policy consolidation, but this seems doubtful for 2021, particularly with former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen set to become Treasury Secretary. Next year is all about growth and recouping the lost jobs.
One risk is that structural changes brought about by the pandemic lead to supply constraints that could generate more inflation (reduced flight, hotel, restaurant/bar and car hire capacity). This could prompt talk of earlier rate hikes than 2024 as the Fed currently projects, plus a steeper yield curve.
US jobs: Still a mountain to climb
Eurozone: More stimulus on the way
The new lockdown measures in the eurozone are now reflected in economic data, with the economic sentiment indicator markedly declining in November, corroborating our expectations of negative growth in the fourth quarter. As some confinement measures will last until mid-January the growth pick-up in 1Q21 is likely to remain modest. But we still see a significant acceleration from 2Q on the back of the vaccine rollout.
While the Recovery fund is currently blocked by both Poland and Hungary over a dispute regarding the interpretation of the rule of law provisions, we expect the German EU presidency to find a compromise, freeing the necessary budget stimulus in 2021. On top of that, the European Central Bank is likely to expand its monetary stimulus further in December.
We're looking for an additional €500 billion of quantitative easing in the form of the pandemic emergency purchase programme and €40 billion of monthly purchases under the public sector purchase programme until further notice, as well as a lengthening in time of the generous TLTRO interest rates for banks. Banks will probably also see a greater part of their excess liquidity exempt from the negative deposit rate.
UK: Brexit crunch time... again
UK-EU negotiations have been going around in circles for weeks, or at least that's how it seems on the surface. Fishing continues to be flagged as the major division, although we suspect level playing field is the bigger challenge.
Either way, time is running out to break this deadlock, although neither side wants to be the one seen to end talks. Brussels is reportedly preparing for the European Parliament to ratify any deal just days before 31 December.
Ultimately it will come down to UK politics. While Covid-19 and polling on Scottish Independence could push the government towards a deal, it will face steep opposition from some pro-Brexit UK MPs.
Deal or not, there will be disruption at the start of 2021, although unprecedented volatility associated with Covid-19 potentially means we won't see negative 1Q GDP. And while the sharp change in trade terms will weigh on the recovery and jobs, this should be offset by a rapid vaccination programme due to start within days. The hope is that this can foster a sustained rebound in GDP through 2021, albeit we don't expect the economy to reach pre-virus levels for at least a couple of years.
Brexit timeline
China: Default risk rising
Onshore bond market default risk in China is accelerating. Companies that are on the brink of default or have already defaulted include both state-owned enterprises and private-owned enterprises and stretch across many different industries.
Condensing the available data, we group these companies into two main groups. The first group is related to incident cases that have lasted for years and would already have defaulted if there had been no pandemic or the trade war, as the economic response to these shocks has delayed deleveraging reforms. The second group runs businesses inefficiently with over-expansion strategies and over-borrowing over many years. It is quite clear that this current wave of defaults is intentional by the government to continue its deleveraging reform.
As it is part of the reform, the government still plays a role even though it would like the market to determine the key parameters of default, e.g. terms of restructuring, or the percentage of haircut required. The government does not want to create a reform-driven default crisis. The central bank has injected short term liquidity into the market to calm sentiment. And the central government may delay a default which they view as posing a systemic risk.
We will certainly see more defaults but not from firms that are too big to fail.
Japan: Third time lucky?
In Japan, the recent news on Covid-19 has been worrying. While few countries in Asia have levels of Covid-19 comparable to those in Europe and the US, the hurdle for restrictive social distancing measures is almost certainly lower. So we are watching the numbers in Japan closely in case we have to shift Japan and some other Asian countries to our second scenario setting.
Although the unhelpful pandemic figures dominate the outlook, there are some positive underlying factors too. Japan has in place substantial fiscal support, which is keeping most of the economy intact pending vaccine rollouts. GDP will probably not return to pre-Covid levels until the end of 2022, but this is in line with what we expect for other G-7 economies. That means that the deficit, which is close to 12% this year, will likely remain well above 5% next year.
A debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 250% now already sounds alarming. But with virtually zero debt service costs of recently issued debt to finance this support, recent increases to support spending pose little additional burden to government finances.
Inflation is also not an imminent problem and is currently slightly negative, and likely to remain close to zero through 2021. We don't anticipate any significant change in policy from the Bank of Japan in response.
Japan FY20 expenditure with two supplementary budgets (JPY bn)
Rates: Paving the way to 1%
It's psychologically important – that 1% handle for the US 10-year.
And we've made some strides in that direction in the past few weeks. In fact, ever since the "vaccine moment", the central underpinning has been for a test higher in market rates. It's been quite a bumpy ride, but at 90 basis points, the US 10yr is poised for at least an attempt to mark 1%, a level that was broken to the downside back in February as the stark realities of Covid-19 dawned, in fact well before the World Health Organization declared it a pandemic.
The last time the German 10yr was at 1% was well over five years ago, and with the US now at 90bp, the German 10yr continues to languish in the -50bp area. We expect the 140bp spread between the two to widen to 175bp in the coming months as the US continues to lead hopes for a material reflation process as we progress through 2021.
The ECB remains all-in, and it needs to be. The eurozone maintains a stressed market discount, as evidenced by rich valuations in the belly versus the wings – a classic sign that rates here remain anchored.
FX: Reflation narrative plays out in a weaker dollar
Nowhere has the powerful reflation narrative been felt more than in global foreign exchange markets. The powerful combination of a Biden win and vaccine progress has driven yield curves steeper, pushed investors out along the credit curve – and out of the dollar. We forecast another 5-10% dollar decline through 2021 as the Fed allows the US economy to run hot.
We have detailed much of our thinking on this subject in our 2021 FX Outlook: Back on Track. And November's 15bp steepening in the 2-10 year Treasury curve has seen the FX reflation playbook work well. Big winners have been the high beta currencies on global growth, particularly the commodity currencies of Norway's krone, the New Zealand dollar and the Brazilian real.
The broad trade-weighted dollar has fallen about 3% since the start of November and is on its way to retracing about two-thirds of the Trump trade war rally – a move which started in early 2018.
It is probably about now we will start to hear the phrase from a former US Treasury Secretary that the dollar is 'our currency, but it is your problem'. These words will be resonating in Frankfurt as the ECB meets on 10 December. The good news for the ECB, however, is that because of the broad nature of the dollar decline – including against Asia – the trade-weighted euro has barely budged.
Given our conviction call of a dollar decline in 2021, EUR/USD looks well on its way to our 1.25 target.
US Nominal Trade Weighted Broad Dollar Index
EMEA: Old habits die hard
Bright days lie ahead. After the tough 2020 and a challenging winter, most Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and African economies should stage a meaningful rebound from 2Q21 onwards, in line with eurozone trends. Driving this post-Covid-19 recovery will be both domestic and external demand. Russia should remain the growth laggard while Poland should steam ahead.
In contrast to developed markets and most emerging market Asia peers, 2021 inflation in the region is expected to fall, not rise. This is mainly due to CEE countries having entered the Covid-19 crisis with elevated CPI levels and tight labour markets. Hence, any reflation theme in the region will largely focus on rising growth levels, rather than CPI increases.
The post-Covid-19 rebound should allow for a return of the monetary divergence. The Czech National bank is to reclaim its position as the ultimate hawk in town, while central banks in Poland and Hungary are to stay behind the curve. Turkey's central bank is expected to keep the very restrictive policy in place until mid-2021, while the Central Bank of Russia is to finalise its multi-year easing cycle with some last cuts.
The fiscal stance in the region will stay supportive in 2021, but less expansionary than in 2020. Those countries facing Parliamentary elections next year (the Czech Republic and Russia) will keep fiscal policy looser than otherwise might have been the case.
2021 should therefore see old habits die hard. Russia will return to being a growth laggard, the CNB should regain its mantle as the hawkish outlier and those countries in election years will require greater spending capacity. In fact, CEEMEA should break the Covid-19 stranglehold quite quickly.
EMEA Inflation
Read the original analysis: December economic update: Pre-Christmas excitement
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