text:
The next source of competitive advantage: TRUST
A Chief Digital Officer and self-styled "future hunter" explains why companies need to investigate the potential of blockchain—now.
Published On 15th Mar 2018
Select ratingGive The next source of competitive advantage: TRUST 1/5Give The next source of competitive advantage: TRUST 2/5Give The next source of competitive advantage: TRUST 3/5Give The next source of competitive advantage: TRUST 4/5Give The next source of competitive advantage: TRUST 5/5
Richie Etwaru
Founder, Chief Executive & Chair of Board
Hu-manity.co
Richie Etwaru believes the most important ingredient for change is courage. Courage not mistaken with risk but consistent with the bravery required to embark upon something never attempted. Richie has spanned...
By Richie Etwaru, Chief Digital Officer, IQVIA
When I was 16, with a newfound understanding of how to write code and uninspected ambition, I set out to create my first Internet application. I was a teenager with the power of the Internet in my hands.
Unfortunately, I was blinded by what I saw. As a user of AOL Chat, I wrote what I thought was a better chat app. And it worked. But of all the applications that I might have developed leveraging the power of the Internet—a YouTube, say, or a GitHub—I settled for simply creating a better version of an app that already existed.
I learned something from that experience. I learned that you need to try and imagine what the latest big thing might mean in the future—future hunting if you will.
For example, today we are all preoccupied with Bitcoin. Indeed, when it first appeared, I was intrigued. I did some Bitcoin mining and some Bitcoin exchanges. But within a year or two, it was something else that got me excited: blockchain, the underlying protocol of Bitcoin. I saw that Bitcoin is to blockchain what AOL Chat was to the TCP/IP, the foundation of the Internet—simply a first demonstration of a powerful protocol. I wanted to avoid the mistake I'd made as a teenager. I didn't want to be trying to write a better coin app while overlooking blockchain's tremendous and far-ranging potential.
At the same time, I struggled with a question: What sort of problem worth tackling could blockchain, with all that potential, solve?
The Traditional Data Dilemma
We live in a world that systematically permits us to misrepresent data to each other. Hundreds of trillions of times a day, data exchanges take place between people, between businesses, between people and businesses. And data usually comes to us and says, Hi, I'm data, trust me…*wink, wink*. But we don't have a good way to check, to be sure that the data hasn't been massaged or manipulated or even fabricated.
With the blockchain protocol, for the first time in history, we can now receive and leverage data that comes to us and says, Hi, I'm data, and by the way, you don't have to take me on trust; this algorithm proves I haven't been tampered with. (For a brief explanation of how blockchain works, see the sidebar "Bitcoin is the Tip of the Iceberg.")
This is an entirely new paradigm, one that potentially makes blockchain the foundation of what I call "trusted commerce." Why is that important? Because companies that understand this—that realize the significance of adding absolute transparency to the information supply chain—are likely to gain a powerful advantage over rivals.
Like Previous Versions of a PowerPoint Slide
Start with a somewhat simplified example. I happen to have a restaurant as a hobby investment. When someone writes a negative review, I take it personally. But I have no idea, first of all, whether that person actually dined at the restaurant. I don't know the identity of the person writing the review. For all I know, "catlover1465" may well be a competitor—who may at the same time be writing a great review about his restaurant!
A review published using the blockchain protocol would be part of a distributed system of entities that would replace blind faith in a review's validity with well-founded trust. A blockchain-enabled restaurant review system would obviously include the restaurant and the reviewer. But it could also include credit card issuers and a point-of-sale system to verify that the reviewer actually ate at the restaurant and in fact had the dishes discussed in the review. It could include other parties with data relevant to a restaurant's quality—for example, food suppliers and the local department of health. And the data generated by the various parties would be governed by a set of rules that would guarantee its trustworthiness.
Here's an analogy for how blockchain works to increase our trust in data. Picture sitting in a polished sales presentation— and being able to click a button that revealed every single version of each PowerPoint slide and showed how the information had been massaged by various participants before the presentation was deemed ready for public viewing.
This kind of transparency and trust can be built into all kinds of business-relevant data. Until now, interest in blockchain has generally focused on financial services data. But the protocol can also be applied to identify data, to inventory data, to market data, to the data behind product claims, to agreement data, to corporate data. For example, what if you built trust into the data that company divisions feed into the budgeting process?!
Over the last 50 years, we've done a lot to increase transaction speed and reduce transaction costs through automation. We've improved transaction reach with the Internet. But we haven't done much to increase transaction trust. We still live in a state of commerce where we can almost systematically lie to each other by passing back and forth data sets that can be manipulated and are often hard to verify.
Traditional Ways to Engender Trust
Granted, traditional mechanisms exist to help us to trust data we receive. We rely on legal contracts and their imposition of liability when information related to the contract turns out to be false. But most information isn't covered by a formal legal contract, and in any case, getting relief under one is costly and time-consuming.
We rely on intermediaries—entities like banks, government agencies, title companies, audit and rating services, and analysts—to serve as independent verifiers of such things as, say, an airline's maintenance record or a company's capabilities. But intermediaries can't always be trusted. A government agency may be understaffed and rely on the companies they regulate for their information. Rating services and analysts may not be as independent and objective as they seem.
We rely on our familiarity with members of, say, a business network to validate the information we receive. But such networks are only useful in certain situations. And although they may increase our comfort level with information we receive they don't guarantee its accuracy.
We rely on a company's brand in deciding whether to believe its marketing claims. But we have seen far too many times that even the most trusted brand can be an unreliable indicator of truthful information.
In the end, we often base our trust on a gut feeling. Think of Uber, and the amount of trust we have to initially manufacture with our gut to get into a car with a stranger. And gut-based trust is on the rise, as we transact more things with more people at a greater distance in more ways than we did in the past.
A Powerful Differentiator
This is why I believe that trust is the next competitive differentiator, that companies who seize the opportunity to compete on the basis of trust will soon achieve a powerful competitive advantage.
Over the years, businesses have competed on such things as product features, product quality, pricing, supply chains that offered immediate availability. More recently, as many sources of competitive advantage became commoditized, "experience" has come to the fore. A company is able to disrupt an industry by creating a better experience than rivals with similar products.
Well, within the next decade, I think the company that has trust as a differentiator will disrupt rivals that don't. Another way to put it: Very soon, every company will find itself at risk of being disrupted by a trusted version of itself.
Here's another simple example. We could start an airline today that looks exactly like, say, American Airlines, that serves the same cities with the same aircraft in the same way that American does. The only difference: we're more trusted and transparent. All we'd have to say to win is:
"Here are our safety and maintenance records. Here's all the pricing of all of our aeroplanes, and what we paid for the fuel, and how we pay our employees. And this is why we price your flight this way. And by the way, we make a little profit on top of it, and here's what we do with our profits. When you get a price from us, you know what went into that price, and you know what quality of product you're getting and how safe the aeroplanes you're flying in are. We're just like American, except that instead of charging $399 to fly here to Miami, we're charging $420. OK? It's an extra $21 more, but look at what we're offering."
There's a difference in competing on trust from competing on experience or product or pricing. Trust is a first-to-market game. If you're first to market with new product features but without offering a great experience, a fast follower can come along with experience and beat you. Or you can offer a great experience and someone can come along and beat you on price. But trust, when it's deserved, is difficult to disrupt. Human beings aren't likely to stop trusting someone they trust and then start trusting somebody else. It's just not in our genes.
Interestingly, this is going to happen to individuals, too. That is, every person will be at the risk of being disrupted by a trusted version of themselves. Think of LinkedIn. It arguably is the website with the most lies on the Internet. It's a place where you can openly go and misrepresent yourself, and practically no one will challenge you. Then think about LinkedIn versus resumes on a blockchain, and what those blockchain resumes would do to the recruiting and the hiring process.
If you're applying for a job, there's a website called Glassdoor, where you can go and check to see which companies are hiring and whether they are good employers. But the best thing employers generally have to assess the accuracy of a job candidate's resume are references. And when was the last time a candidate gave you the name of someone who would tell you the truth?
If a company has a choice between two similar candidates, they will choose the one whose resume has been verified through by blockchain-like process.
A Revolution in the Making
Why do I think that the scenario I describe is going to happen? Why do I think we're about to experience a trust revolution in the commercial world?
Revolutions tend to happen when three things align at the same time. First, there is a legitimate argument that there has to be a better way. And we're seeing that here, if you think about the difference between data that comes to you and says, Trust me – don't worry, as opposed to data that comes to you and says, You don't need to trust me, you can test me.
The second thing that leads to revolutions is enough power in the hands of youth to drive a change. And if you look at blockchain, we're seeing a situation where young people are at the forefront. The CEO of IBM's number one blockchain competitor, Ethereum, is 23 years old. The young not only have growing spending power, they have in blockchain a tool that will allow them to redesign commerce to suit themselves.
The third condition is that the populace believes some sort of change can happen in a short period of time. And blockchain momentum is gathering rapidly. Last year I gave a local TedX Talk on blockchain—not on the big Ted stage but at an event in New Jersey—and the YouTube video of the talk has 650,000 views. That's more than half a million people interested in blockchain. If you added up all the YouTube videos about blockchain, the total viewership will be many millions.
If you have these three things in place, a revolution often results. And I'd say that the blockchain revolution is imminent. Every trade magazine has had a blockchain cover in the last 12 months. Fifty percent of the governments in the world have some sort of blockchain experiment going on at the moment. I don't believe that things standing in the way, such as concerns about privacy, will stop a movement so significant.
In five to ten years, this revolution will be everywhere. I think we're about to see a colossal slaughter. This is not about, say, GE becoming a better GE. This is about waiting for GE to get knocked out by the trusted version of GE.
Powerful new technologies receiving so much attention these days, such as IoT and AI, allow us to do what we currently do better and faster—to build a better mousetrap if you will. Blockchain raises a profound question: "Do we need a mousetrap if in fact, we don't have a mouse problem?"
Bitcoin is the Tip of the Iceberg
For many people, blockchain means Bitcoin, the increasingly popular digital cryptocurrency. But the idea behind blockchain—creating trust in the information on which transactions are based—is widely applicable, in business and other realms.
Making it possible for buyers and sellers to trust each other has been a problem in business for thousands of years. And for the last millennium or so, the best solution has been to create a ledger held by some trusted intermediary, such as a bank or a government. Today, many such intermediaries exist but mostly just to hang on to high-tech versions of that same old ledger.
Blockchain is likely to change all that. This distributed ledger system represents a major upgrade on the traditional ledger for two reasons:
First, every transaction is encrypted with a unique key. This makes it almost impossible to tamper with – especially given that each transaction incorporates and re-encrypts every prior related transaction (hence the name, blockchain).
Second, when a change is made to a record and stamped by a trusted party known to others in the chain, copies of that record are sent to ledgers on every node. Periodically, an algorithm verifies that each of those distributed ledgers is exact copies of each other, and throws out any transactions that don't match all the other copies.
The upshot: a would-be tamperer in a blockchain system would not only have to break the encrypted code of a record but simultaneously change thousands or millions of copies of that same record at the same instance.
The Takeaways
Blockchain, by creating trusted exchanges of information, will lead to a profound revolution in commerce.
Trust will be a powerful competitive differentiator.
Companies have to learn to be transparent or get ready to be replaced by a more trusted version of themselves.


text:
<?php

App::uses('Router', 'Routing');
App::uses('CakeRequest', 'Network');
App::uses('CakeResponse', 'Network');
App::uses('Controller', 'Controller');
App::uses('Scaffold', 'Controller');
App::uses('View', 'View');
App::uses('Debugger', 'Utility');

/**
 * Dispatcher converts Requests into controller actions.  It uses the dispatched Request
 * to locate and load the correct controller.  If found, the requested action is called on
 * the controller.
 *
 * @package       Cake.Routing
 */
class Dispatcher {

/**
 * Constructor.
 *
 * @param string $base The base directory for the application. Writes `App.base` to Configure.
 */
	public function __construct($base = false) {
		if ($base !== false) {
			Configure::write('App.base', $base);
		}
	}

/**
 * Dispatches and invokes given Request, handing over control to the involved controller. If the controller is set
 * to autoRender, via Controller::$autoRender, then Dispatcher will render the view.
 *
 * Actions in CakePHP can be any public method on a controller, that is not declared in Controller.  If you
 * want controller methods to be public and in-accessible by URL, then prefix them with a `_`.
 * For example `public function _loadPosts() { }` would not be accessible via URL.  Private and protected methods
 * are also not accessible via URL.
 *
 * If no controller of given name can be found, invoke() will throw an exception.
 * If the controller is found, and the action is not found an exception will be thrown.
 *
 * @param CakeRequest $request Request object to dispatch.
 * @param CakeResponse $response Response object to put the results of the dispatch into.
 * @param array $additionalParams Settings array ("bare", "return") which is melded with the GET and POST params
 * @return boolean Success
 * @throws MissingControllerException, MissingActionException, PrivateActionException if any of those error states
 *    are encountered.
 */
	public function dispatch(CakeRequest $request, CakeResponse $response, $additionalParams = array()) {
		if ($this->asset($request->url, $response) || $this->cached($request->here())) {
			return;
		}

		Router::setRequestInfo($request);
		$request = $this->parseParams($request, $additionalParams);
		$controller = $this->_getController($request, $response);

		if (!($controller instanceof Controller)) {
			throw new MissingControllerException(array(
				'class' => Inflector::camelize($request->params['controller']) . 'Controller',
				'plugin' => empty($request->params['plugin']) ? null : Inflector::camelize($request->params['plugin'])
			));
		}

		return $this->_invoke($controller, $request, $response);
	}

/**
 * Initializes the components and models a controller will be using.
 * Triggers the controller action, and invokes the rendering if Controller::$autoRender is true and echo's the output.
 * Otherwise the return value of the controller action are returned.
 *
 * @param Controller $controller Controller to invoke
 * @param CakeRequest $request The request object to invoke the controller for.
 * @param CakeResponse $response The response object to receive the output
 * @return void
 */
	protected function _invoke(Controller $controller, CakeRequest $request, CakeResponse $response) {
		$controller->constructClasses();
		$controller->startupProcess();

		$render = true;
		$result = $controller->invokeAction($request);
		if ($result instanceof CakeResponse) {
			$render = false;
			$response = $result;
		}

		if ($render && $controller->autoRender) {
			$response = $controller->render();
		} elseif ($response->body() === null) {
			$response->body($result);
		}
		$controller->shutdownProcess();

		if (isset($request->params['return'])) {
			return $response->body();
		}
		$response->send();
	}

/**
 * Applies Routing and additionalParameters to the request to be dispatched.
 * If Routes have not been loaded they will be loaded, and app/Config/routes.php will be run.
 *
 * @param CakeRequest $request CakeRequest object to mine for parameter information.
 * @param array $additionalParams An array of additional parameters to set to the request.
 *   Useful when Object::requestAction() is involved
 * @return CakeRequest The request object with routing params set.
 */
	public function parseParams(CakeRequest $request, $additionalParams = array()) {
		if (count(Router::$routes) == 0) {
			$namedExpressions = Router::getNamedExpressions();
			extract($namedExpressions);
			$this->_loadRoutes();
		}

		$params = Router::parse($request->url);
		$request->addParams($params);

		if (!empty($additionalParams)) {
			$request->addParams($additionalParams);
		}
		return $request;
	}

/**
 * Get controller to use, either plugin controller or application controller
 *
 * @param CakeRequest $request Request object
 * @param CakeResponse $response Response for the controller.
 * @return mixed name of controller if not loaded, or object if loaded
 */
	protected function _getController($request, $response) {
		$ctrlClass = $this->_loadController($request);
		if (!$ctrlClass) {
			return false;
		}
		$reflection = new ReflectionClass($ctrlClass);
		if ($reflection->isAbstract() || $reflection->isInterface()) {
			return false;
		}
		return $reflection->newInstance($request, $response);
	}

/**
 * Load controller and return controller classname
 *
 * @param CakeRequest $request
 * @return string|bool Name of controller class name
 */
	protected function _loadController($request) {
		$pluginName = $pluginPath = $controller = null;
		if (!empty($request->params['plugin'])) {
			$pluginName = $controller = Inflector::camelize($request->params['plugin']);
			$pluginPath = $pluginName . '.';
		}
		if (!empty($request->params['controller'])) {
			$controller = Inflector::camelize($request->params['controller']);
		}
		if ($pluginPath . $controller) {
			$class = $controller . 'Controller';
			App::uses('AppController', 'Controller');
			App::uses($pluginName . 'AppController', $pluginPath . 'Controller');
			App::uses($class, $pluginPath . 'Controller');
			if (class_exists($class)) {
				return $class;
			}
		}
		return false;
	}

/**
 * Loads route configuration
 *
 * @return void
 */
	protected function _loadRoutes() {
		include APP . 'Config' . DS . 'routes.php';
	}

/**
 * Outputs cached dispatch view cache
 *
 * @param string $path Requested URL path with any query string parameters
 * @return string|boolean False if is not cached or output
 */
	public function cached($path) {
		if (Configure::read('Cache.check') === true) {
			if ($path == '/') {
				$path = 'home';
			}
			$path = strtolower(Inflector::slug($path));

			$filename = CACHE . 'views' . DS . $path . '.php';

			if (!file_exists($filename)) {
				$filename = CACHE . 'views' . DS . $path . '_index.php';
			}

			if (file_exists($filename)) {
				App::uses('ThemeView', 'View');

				$controller = null;
				$view = new ThemeView($controller);
				return $view->renderCache($filename, microtime(true));
			}
		}
		return false;
	}

/**
 * Checks if a requested asset exists and sends it to the browser
 *
 * @param string $url Requested URL
 * @param CakeResponse $response The response object to put the file contents in.
 * @return boolean True on success if the asset file was found and sent
 */
	public function asset($url, CakeResponse $response) {
		if (strpos($url, '..') !== false || strpos($url, '.') === false) {
			return false;
		}
		$filters = Configure::read('Asset.filter');
		$isCss = (
			strpos($url, 'ccss/') === 0 ||
			preg_match('#^(theme/([^/]+)/ccss/)|(([^/]+)(?<!css)/ccss)/#i', $url)
		);
		$isJs = (
			strpos($url, 'cjs/') === 0 ||
			preg_match('#^/((theme/[^/]+)/cjs/)|(([^/]+)(?<!js)/cjs)/#i', $url)
		);
		if (($isCss && empty($filters['css'])) || ($isJs && empty($filters['js']))) {
			$response->statusCode(404);
			$response->send();
			return true;
		} elseif ($isCss) {
			include WWW_ROOT . DS . $filters['css'];
			return true;
		} elseif ($isJs) {
			include WWW_ROOT . DS . $filters['js'];
			return true;
		}
		$pathSegments = explode('.', $url);
		$ext = array_pop($pathSegments);
		$parts = explode('/', $url);
		$assetFile = null;

		if ($parts[0] === 'theme') {
			$themeName = $parts[1];
			unset($parts[0], $parts[1]);
			$fileFragment = urldecode(implode(DS, $parts));
			$path = App::themePath($themeName) . 'webroot' . DS;
			if (file_exists($path . $fileFragment)) {
				$assetFile = $path . $fileFragment;
			}
		} else {
			$plugin = Inflector::camelize($parts[0]);
			if (CakePlugin::loaded($plugin)) {
				unset($parts[0]);
				$fileFragment = urldecode(implode(DS, $parts));
				$pluginWebroot = CakePlugin::path($plugin) . 'webroot' . DS;
				if (file_exists($pluginWebroot . $fileFragment)) {
					$assetFile = $pluginWebroot . $fileFragment;
				}
			}
		}

		if ($assetFile !== null) {
			$this->_deliverAsset($response, $assetFile, $ext);
			return true;
		}
		return false;
	}

/**
 * Sends an asset file to the client
 *
 * @param CakeResponse $response The response object to use.
 * @param string $assetFile Path to the asset file in the file system
 * @param string $ext The extension of the file to determine its mime type
 * @return void
 */
	protected function _deliverAsset(CakeResponse $response, $assetFile, $ext) {
		ob_start();
		$compressionEnabled = Configure::read('Asset.compress') && $response->compress();
		if ($response->type($ext) == $ext) {
			$contentType = 'application/octet-stream';
			$agent = env('HTTP_USER_AGENT');
			if (preg_match('%Opera(/| )([0-9].[0-9]{1,2})%', $agent) || preg_match('/MSIE ([0-9].[0-9]{1,2})/', $agent)) {
				$contentType = 'application/octetstream';
			}
			$response->type($contentType);
		}
		if (!$compressionEnabled) {
			$response->header('Content-Length', filesize($assetFile));
		}
		$response->cache(filemtime($assetFile));
		$response->send();
		ob_clean();
		if ($ext === 'css' || $ext === 'js') {
			include($assetFile);
		} else {
			readfile($assetFile);
		}

		if ($compressionEnabled) {
			ob_end_flush();
		}
	}
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


35 Things your employer cannot do!
You can ONLY apply in person when the Apprenticeship is open. Contact our Local 36 Apprenticeship Coordinator for information.
Woman and minorities are encouraged to apply. Veterans Preference Points apply and Veterans that have GI Benefits may use them in this program. Selection Process will be through "ranked interview" of qualified applicants.
All Mechanic Upgrade Classes are held on the first Saturday of the month.
Why Union? Hard working men and women are seeing their way of life on the verge of collapse as health insurance costs skyrocket, pensions disappear, and real wages stagnate. The future of working families depends on a united voice that can stand up to powerful interests.
In the early 1900s a small group of workers had a common goal to protect the rights of themselves and the contractors they worked for, and forming a Union had to be part of that goal. The majority of the past 100 Years we have been known as the "Asbestos Workers" we now proudly work under the name "International Association of Heat & Frost Insulators & Allied Workers Local 36". With this "100 Year Celebration" we want to acknowledge all the men and women that spent their careers working as Asbestos Workers and those that today work under the title "Allied Workers".
The Heat and Frost Insulators and Allied Workers Union is committed to providing an adequate supply of trained insulation mechanics with the competitive skills necessary to meet industry needs now and in the future.


California's hockey-sticked temperature outliers | Watts Up With That?
Today's WaPo story by Darryl Fears on California drought frequency in a warming world compelled me to take a look at the Golden State's temperature history. In my 2011 book Climate Coup, I showed that the alarm over California warming was rather odd, as most of the changes had taken place thirty years previously.
That was then, and this is now. But what about history?
Several things stand out. There's obviously no warming through 2011 (when Climate Coup was published). But the pop between 2013 and 2014 is pretty gosh-darned impressive, no?
Fast-backward to 1934. J.B. Kincer had just published the first systematic temperature analysis from locations around the planet, in the 1933 Monthly Weather Review paper titled "Is our Climate Changing". The paper clearly demonstrated global warming, and people were starting to talk about the influence of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide on surface temperature. The only thing that was different back then is that we didn't have computers to simulate what should have been happening. But if we did, I suspect that Darryl Fears' progenitors would have written a pretty similar story.
Why? Take a look at the 38-year period (the same length as in the above figure) 1896-1934.
What's different here? Nothing. Also worth noting is the difference in mean temperature between the two periods, providing very strong evidence for the step-change in California temperature that occurred the Great Pacific Climate Shift in 1976.
Armed with a computer model in 1935, one could probably have written the exact same story 80 years ago, prompted by the very similar outlier temperatures of 1934 and 2014.
March 3, 2015 in Climate News.
Might have something to do with having a population of 37 million.
No need to point out which one is the official station.
Do you have a transportable data file for this stuff? It looks very interesting. What I like to work with are monthly averages, so any pointer would be gratefully received.
Go to "climate at a glance" at NCDC and you should be able to work your way through it. Pretty easy site.
Majormike1: THIS!! I just don't understand why this isn't discussed more. I hope that someone, somewhere, has the complete temperature record before the manipulation of data had started. THIS is 1984 leaping from a book of fiction into our lives. Bevan, could you please show us that graph BEFORE the data was subjected to the homogenization? I think that would provide us a much more accurate assessment of what is occurring. Investigate Soon?!?! The continued adjustment of the temperature record is nothing short of criminal, and this is what should be the focus of any investigation.
Bevan – Surface temperature homogenization cools the past, warms the present, and then you say adding the ocean surface temperatures will moderate its exaggeration. But just think of how much more moderate the whole process would be if raw temperature records were used, and then the Urban Heat Island effect was removed, instead of being used as a basis for increasing rural temperatures.Global temperature records are dominated by urban observations, since most weather stations are in urban areas. The vast in-betweens – the oceans, the poles, the southern hemisphere – are sparsely observed, even in densely populated southern hemisphere countries. An observation is not credible if it is the result of being massaged without transparency to arrive at a trend not in agreement with the raw observations. It is fitting that the prowess of CO2 to regulate climate change only came on the scene after millions of years of greater periods of climate change, that moved independently of atmospheric CO2 levels. Without the assist from homogenization, more warming occurred in the natural temperature rebound from the Little Ice Age (1300-1850AD) prior to 1950 than after. Over half the years after 1950 featured either cooling or no warming, in particular the past 20 years where by far the most CO2 discharged by humans entered the atmosphere. And global temperature yawned. And sea level fell on the West Coast since 1997. If not for El Ninos (not AGW related), we would be talking again about global cooling a la 1970's instead of warming.
Bevan, there is a lot less than meets the eye in your links. The unhomogenized temperature record for the U.S. land mass is a lot less Hockey Stick shaped than the adjusted, and homogenized version.
That fact is grudgingly acknowledged by the AGW crowd, but they then immediately point out that the U.S. is just 2% of the global surface. Therefore, they argue, we should "homogenize" the U.S. record using the ocean record as a reference.
The problem with this argument is that the ocean surface temperature is quite lousy compared to the land record. Lots of missing data, interpolated data, defective data, sparse data. Yet they're using the bad ocean record to "improve" the good land record, which SURPRISE, gives the land record more of a Hockey Stick shape, as you acknowledge.
This of course is quite apart from the amazingly suspicious, perfect Hockey Stick shaped Time of Observation adjustments, plus the Urban Heat Island adjustments which ought to give a negative Hockey Stick adjustment but which instead amount to just about zero in the global record adjustment.
Forgot to include the reference for the graphs above.
This is Hansen's take, before he finished "adjusting" the record.
You've shown graphs of US vs global temperature. Not the same.
>>>Therefore, they argue, we should "homogenize" the U.S. record using the ocean record as a reference.
the ocean record is not used as a reference to homogenise the US record.
"and look what happened!". Well, from the graph you posted, the temperature went down for a decade, and then took another 70 years to beat the old high mark.
Looks like 1*F from 1895 to 1950. That is our "Natural Warming" of .18*F/decade.
And 1.25F from 1950 to 2014 of Anthro+ UHI + Natural Warming of .195*F/decade.
There is no evidence that the long term natural warming stopped.
So we can determine that antro warming is .015*F/Decade.
88% natural warming and 12% anthro/UHI warming, is not unexpected, and is lost in the background of normal variations in weather and climate.
How much are Californians going to sacrifice to prevent 0.15*F per CENTURY??
I can predict they will sacrifice, much more than I would be willing to.
My estimates were ruler on the screen, and I was tired. I should have taken the time to get it right. This is from the noaa charts.
From 1895 to 1950 warming is 0.2*F/Decade.
From 1950 to 2014 it is 0.3*F/Decade. So we are getting 0.1*F /Decade of anthro/UHI to worry about. It won't keep me up at night, any time soon.
You are showing a graph of California, are we changing the term from "Global Warming" to "California Warming"? Ok since we are no longer interested in global warming which is good since we don't have good temperature records from the entire globe. Instead we take temperatures from selected areas and then pretend the areas not selected are the same.
So sticking with California, it oscillated warm and cool from 1890 to 1985, but was fairly consistent and then shows a period of extended warmth starting in 1985. Ok so I looked at what happened in California.
I suspect that problem is that nobody thinks that the temperature record is perfect. Its just that the homogenised is much less than perfect.
Previous effort a few years ago.
The previous effort showed that the warming trend was all pre-SUV which is not scary enough. Next thing you know, its all fixed.
Which shows it's not CO2 surely?
What's wrong here? The linear trend. The CO2-did-it assumption does not justify a linear trend. The same appears even better in the sea level rise graphs which are very very linear. Too linear.
California is one big state with many micro climates. Just take a ferry ride from the San Francisco ferry terminal to Sausalito. You can go from 70F to 55F to 80F in a very short while.
Plus a wind shift can change the coastal areas by 30F and when the Santa Ana's pick up, downslope heating can be substantial. Couple that with Rob Dawg's point and just what are the real averages?
To your point, I lived out by Ocean Beach in San Francisco for years, and sometimes during 'Indian Summer' the boundary between the warm inland air and cool marine air would be so sharply defined that there would be a 25F drop over a few blocks (out in the Avenues). It was truly remarkable.
It's pretty simple. Just think of the average direction that humans are collectively facing over the course of a month or the average color of your television while you watch an hour long program.
'Average' has been defined as that value – not quickly refuted – that leads to the greatest grant input.
That might be non-adjacent to Mean, Mode and Median – but – ahhh, so be it.
What's your definition of 'science'?
It's nice to see from the above that I'm not the only one who thinks "average temperature" is an absurdity. Yet it is bandied about as if it means something — as if simply using the phrase suddenly makes the concept exist.
California has been having a warmish winter and a dry one. One important point that often goes unremarked is that dry and damp, warm and cool are four conditions that define a 2X2 contingency box. There is ample data on [barely] paleoclimate shifts between 2,000 and about 800 years ago that demonstrate that the pairs "warm and dry" and "cool and damp" are not the only way the pattern shakes out. During the Medieval drought (Warm Period in other places) the first part seems to have been marked by a cool, dry period, punctuated by a much wetter – normal appearing to modern eyes – period that was followed by a warmer, dryer period. Much of the newer data derives from solar power studies done in the Mojave Desert. You can expect that numerous publications using this data will be appearing (or rejected for publication) in the next few years. A good source for references to primary climate data for California and the greater southwest is Prehistoric California: archaeology and the myth of paradise. One of the grimmer points made is that those two Medieval droughts each lasted at least a century each. This reflected in directly datable trees that rooted on exposed, dry lacustrine shorelines and then drowned when the droughts ended. Archaerologically it is also notable that human populations in the Sierra crashed. Earlier speculation was that the mountains had been abandoned. More detailed evidence showed that populations had been severely reduced. Unfortunately Gov. Brown seems to be happy to ignore this and pushes on with his delta tunnel idea.
It's a great point. During the time since Europeans arrived in California, we have not experienced some of the truly catastrophic conditions that are actually possible. Not if but when it happens again, it is going to get ugly.
Hockey sticks are difficult to find in nature, we live in a pretty stable planet at pretty stable time. No warranties though.
But since the runaway temp is during the drought, could it be just the opposite cause and effect?
It's a two-way street, but the heat-causes-drought side of the street operates more in temperate rather than Mediterranean climates like California. In, say, the Midwest, heat usually means a strong jet stream ridge which suppresses convection which makes it drier which makes it hotter which makes it drier etc…. In California the rainy season is the cool season so this effect is minimized.
California has undergone periodic drought since settlers kept records. Circa 1960 and circa 1990 cover the two most recent notable multi year stretches. Nothing is changing there. What HAS changed is that since 1970, California's population increaed 87% while its water storage capacity only increased 26%. A self inflicted wound.
There has also been a substantial growth in agriculture over that same time period. If I remember right agriculture uses around 85% of total water usage.
10 years of USCRN station temps for California show no warming trend. Plotting monthly averaged data for USCRN data are not difficult. 2014 might have been a slightly warmer year at two of the seven stations.
One warm year does not make a trend.
My family has lived and been born in California since the Gold Rush.
I no longer live there. I find all the whining there by the army of newcomers 99% of whom have been there less than three generations, to be amusing and pathetic. I remember the dry 1955-1960 time. At one point we lived in Death Valley and when I was a child, I had to stand so the sun was at my back so my shadow would cover my feet so my toes wouldn't burn through the cotton sneaker tops!
It was so hot and dry, we prayed for rain in the church and one Sunday it rained and we children ran outside screaming. My littlest brother thought this was the end of the world.
This latest 3 year drought was nothing compared to previous droughts. And it is already over. The reservoirs are low mainly due to the gigantic population draining them.
One of my favorites! It nails the alarmist cult. They always see the glass as half empty — never as half full.
Thanks, Peter. added this to my favorites.
Hi from Oz. Well done, PP, trust an Aussie to nail it. We have (or used to have) a very low tolerance for bull$hit.
…please do not forget the smelt fish that must have the reservoirs drained for. (Really) Rud's "self inflicted wound" is correct.
If the Arab world can afford desalination, and California can afford a bullet train. then San Diego, Orange County. LA, Santa Barbra, Eureka, and San Francisco can afford desalination as well.
Currently they are planning on cutting off most of the central valley this summer. Not only will food prices sky rocket but the water table will be badly affected, not just because of more well pumping, but because 500 miles of irrigation (open to the ground) which helped stabilize the water table in the 80s, will not be leaching into the water table. If most of the "evil" dams had not been built, most of the rivers would run completely dry in such a drought as is happening now.
Considering the huge amount of urban development, housing and industrial complexes, highways and vehicle ownership in California during past century, and the level of UHI that inevitably has been introduced by all of this, the observed trend most likely masks an actual cooling trend. It would be educational to do a similar analysis based only on the California stations that have remained rural during this period.
If ever anywhere might have suffered from UHI it is California.
Tony, fyi, I think China has about the same population density as California.
Consider the huge amount of water wasted by State and Federal agencies on behalf of "endangered" species from reservoirs and aqueducts originally sold to taxpayers as water supply for urban centers and agriculture. Among the issues here is there is no sensible assessment (and hasn't been for years) about best end use of water supplies. California was at one time one of the largest producers of rice in the world and if that isn't water intensive agriculture I don't know what is. Having grown up in California when San Jose was a quaint little town and the county fair was the biggest event of the year I have to say that drought followed by flood is nothing new It's the reason all those reservoirs were built to save water for the lean times and support aquifers when the rain wasn't there. All the talk about climate in California is disingenuous without addressing how The Corps of Engineers and EPA enforcement of an environmentalist agenda has made sensible allocation of water all but impossible.
Do a test to see if it is statistically significant. Looks like it doesn't meet the criterion just from eyeballs.
but heat does not cause drought.
I would like have more recent example of a scientific paper, please.
Data are fun. I went to the US Historical Climatological Network web page and pulled the data for Cedarville, CA, from 1895 to 2013. Cedarville, according to Wikipedia, " experiences warm (but not hot) and dry summers, with no average monthly temperatures above 71.6 °F. According to the Köppen Climate Classification system, Cedarville has a warm-summer Mediterranean climate, abbreviated "Csb" on climate maps." It sits at 4652′ above sea level and its current population is 514 souls. It was founded in 1864 as a stopping place for wagon trains. By 1880 it had a population of 220. Hasn't grown a whole lot since then.
I plotted the TMEAN(RAW) values, averaged by year, for the entire series. There were six holes in the data, which I filled with the average of the two values on either side, and with a smooth line where there were three in a row. Six out of 126 records isn't too bad, I don't think.
The results are about what you'd expect for untouched, unhomogenized, non-waterboarded raw data: no warming at all. The trend over the entire period is flat, starting at 49.9F in 1895 and ending the same in 2013.
I jumped across the country to Coshocton, OH, the county seat of Coshocton County, population 11, 216 in the 2010 census. Their data goes from 1916 to 2010, with a similar number of holes I filled in the same way. The trend line for the 94-year series is negative, decreasing from 52.2F to 51F.
So where *is* the warming? It's interesting that picking two random places in very rural USA show no warming, and even cooling over their histories. Only in the "adjusted" data sets do we seem to see this rapid increase.
I would be interested in seeing the average winter temperature records for Cedarville, because the increased usage of irrigation in Surprise Valley during crop season could possibly lower the average summertime temperatures. During the '30's, irrigation was not as widespread as it is today.
For comparison with the annual average for California, here's Cedarville's temperature plot.
A remarkable plot . I notice that it states that it is "raw data" . There is no increasing trend with time , and the positive anomalies are from the 1930s. Does this source hold raw data on all US weather stations – so that one could check out , for example, the suggestion made above that the UHI effect may have distorted the annual mean results for California., ie run comparisons of different stations , rural v urban and see if any difference.
Cal temp based on just 4 records. Then I suppose the rest are homogenised to match.
What would be really useful is the capability to look at satellite data over defined regions. This would help uncover the real signal. All it would take is the ability to extract the data within specified coordinates and then graph them over time. Would be a great addition to woodfortrees.
The recent years seems to me to be likely linked to the polar vortex, which rolls EAST of California, causing much colder temperature for states east.
Interesting remark! Where do you apply the arcsine transform? I think that it is intended to be used in an effort to normalise distributions, (expressed as a fraction in the range 0 to 1) where most of the variability is associated with the ends of the distribution. I have it as an option in my stats package – the result of industrial experience – but have never thought of using it in climate analyses.
The article is a good demonstration of climate change for California – the warming trend is clear.
Is the warming spike unusual? Perhaps not if the article is claiming the 1934 and 2014 spikes are caused by the same thing, probably drought in this case.
But the spike in 2014 is almost 1C above the level obtained by the spike in 1934 ie you can argue the climate change has made the 2014 spike much worse.
If you have a gradual natural warming from the LIA, then you would expect spikes to be higher as that warming continues. And why should you assume that the 1934 spike was the "highest" natural variation could supply?
The fact is that the climate has shown similar variation in the non-CO2 dominated past to the variation it shows now, int he supposedly CO2-dominated present.
That is my point – a "similar" variation that is now higher due to the warming trend since the 1934 spike.
"Gradual natural warming from the LIA". An interesting theory, but not one supported by the temperature reconstructions that I have seen. If you do assume a warming trend since the LIA, an explanation is still required for why the warming trend accelerated during the 20th century.
The graph is of value-added, adjusted, and homogenized "data". The past is cooled, the present warmed. And if you read the chiefio's post I linked, the temperature for California is just 4 stations.
Smoothing would have removed the spike at 2014, wouldn't it?
You may not fully understand what "smoothing" does or is alleged to do. End points cannot be smoothed in any sensible way.
You do realize that California is not the planet, right?
It's certainly not from this planet.
California deserves all the temperature adjustment warming they get.
So will we get a repeat in 2084?
I don't know where this site gets its data, but it has a big gap for Mt. Wilson in the 60's and 70's. I remember some pretty warm years back then.
And this one doesn't seem to state which are the missing years, months, etc.
The weather has changed here in California. It is warmer and it is not raining. We have a 19% snow pack. Farms are shutting down since there is no water. And it is reported that the off-coast ocean temperatures are way above normal. We are having episodes of seal pups coming on shore starving. And not only that, it is warm all the way up into Alaska, not just here in California. There is pretty low snow pack readings in the Cascades. It has been colder in Louisville KY than in Anchorage. The jet stream is just not moving the way it used to – when we would have storms come in and it would rain for a few days, then clear for a few days and then back to rain. It had frequency. But this season, we had a lot of rain in Nov and Dec then it just stopped. Then it came in for a storm in Feb, then stopped. And the entire patterns is stuck – the east keeps getting that Arctic air and weather. I have been here for over 35 years and I have never seen it like this.


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Facebook is testing Twitter-like trending topics and some users can find it on their News Feed. As reported by the Wall Street Journal, a section module will appear at the top right-hand side of the News Feed displaying popular topics being discussed. Each listed topic is based off of hashtags, which the social network started supporting in June.


After more than a year of litigation, the University of California, Berkeley, has settled a lawsuit with the Young Americas Foundation and the UC Berkeley College Republicans.
Campus conservatives accused the university of bias in the process of bringing high-profile speakers to campus. The original lawsuit revolved around the cancellation of an event with Ann Coulter. An amended version of the lawsuit included road blocks initiated by the university for an event with Ben Shapiro.
Rescind the viewpoint-discriminatory security fee policy.
Abolish its heckler's veto — protesters will no longer be able to shut down conservative expression.
Under these terms, UC Berkeley will no longer be allowed to place a 3 p.m. curfew on conservative events or relegate conservative speakers to remote or inconvenient lecture halls on campus while giving left-leaning speakers access to preferred parts of campus.
Read the full article on Washington Examiner.


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50shadesofsun
MS, Disability & Living Life
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Healthy eating can improve MS symptoms, but societies won't endorse any one diet
December 16, 2017 / Ian Franks	/ 3 Comments
Multiple sclerosis organisations around the world back the idea that eating a healthy diet can help people with the disease. But they are refusing, correctly in my view, to get behind any one diet.
A new study, published in Neurology, says that eating a healthy diet may be linked with reduced disability and fewer MS symptoms. Such a diet would include fruits, vegetables, and whole grains.
I have never attributed any importance to people saying that diet cured them of MS. In fact, it's nothing short of hogwash. But that's not to say that diet cannot help, just that it is not a cure by itself.
There are a number of dietary plans for which claims are sometimes made, and about which strong views are held. These include the Swank and Overcoming MS diets. Supporters of Swank, for example, believe it can reduce the frequency of flare-ups and lessen the severity of symptoms.
However, the US's National MS Society and the UK's MS Society say there is not enough evidence to recommend any one diet.
The authors of the new study, led by Kathryn C. Fitzgerald, acknowledges that there is a lack of evidence on the potential influence that diet may have on MS symptoms.
Fitzgerald works in the Department of Neurology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. She says: "People with MS often ask if there is anything they can do to delay or avoid disability. Many people want to know if their diet can play a role, but there have been few studies investigating this."
Severe disability 20% less likely
To examine the role that diet may play in MS, Fitzgerald's team looked at questionnaires completed by 6,989 people with MS as part of the North American Research Committee registry.
The team found that people in the group with the most healthy diet were 20% less likely to have more severe physical disability than people in the group with the least healthy diet.
Fitzgerald adds: "While this study does not determine whether a healthy lifestyle reduces MS symptoms or whether having severe symptoms makes it harder for people to engage in a healthy lifestyle, it provides evidence for the link between the two."
The authors acknowledged that the study has two limitations:
· First, participants were mostly older white people who had been diagnosed with MS for an average of 20 years. So, although people with all types of MS were included, the findings might not apply to everyone with the disease.
· Second, the study's design does not provide an insight into whether healthy diets might influence MS symptoms in the future.
What can a diet do for someone with MS? In my opinion, about the same as it can do for someone without the disease; a balanced diet helps to achieve and maintain a healthy level of fitness. But it is not a cure and never can be; don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
Affiliate disclaimer: This affiliate disclosure details the affiliate relationships of MS, Health & Disability at 50shadesofsun.com with other companies and products. Read more.
50shadesofsun.com is the personal website of Ian Franks, a freelance medical writer and editor for various health information sites. He enjoyed a successful career as a journalist, from reporter to editor in the print media. He gained a Journalist of the Year award in his native UK. Ian received a diagnosis of MS in 2002 and now lives in the south of Spain. He uses a wheelchair and advocates on mobility and accessibility issues.
Note: Health-related information available on 50shadesofsun website is intended for your general knowledge only and is not a substitute for medical advice or treatment for specific medical conditions. I am not a doctor and cannot and do not give you medical advice. You should seek prompt medical care for any specific health issues and consult a doctor before starting a new diet or exercise programme. Any opinions expressed are purely my own unless otherwise stated.
Steps to Overcoming MS but MS Society warns diet is unproven
October 9, 2017 / Ian Franks	/ 4 Comments
Overcoming MS (OMS) is a popular, yet unproven, diet and lifestyle programme for people with MS. And in just under two weeks, on Sunday October 22, you can learn more about it at an OMS conference in Brighton, UK.
Professor George Jelinek (Pic: Overcoming MS).
Overcoming Multiple Sclerosis claims to promote the integration of diet and lifestyle changes into standard medical management to improve the health and lives of people with multiple sclerosis". Professor George Jelinek, of Melbourne, Australia, developed the OMS Recovery Programme more than 15 years ago. He received a diagnosis of MS in 1999.
OMS started in Australia and New Zealand. It is a non-profit organization and accepts no funding from the pharmaceutical industry. In 2011, it formed a charity in the UK to with the aim of making the OMS programme available worldwide.
The one-day conference is to include a number of presentations These are to focus on the seven steps of the recovery programme: diet, sunlight and vitamin D, exercise, meditation, medication, preventing family members from getting MS, and doing whatever it takes to overcome MS.
Organisers say the event will be of value to anyone, whether newly diagnosed, new to OMS or someone who has already been on the recovery programme for some time.
OMS step by step
So, what's in the OMS recovery programme? To summarise:
Diet and supplements
A plant-based wholefood diet plus seafood, with no saturated fat, as far as is practical
Omega-3 fatty acid supplements: Take 20-40mls of flaxseed oil daily; fish oil can be used instead if desired
Optional B group vitamins or B12 supplement if needed
Sunlight 15 minutes daily 3-5 times a week as close to all over as practical
Vitamin D3 supplement of at least 5000IU daily, adjusted to blood level
Aim to keep blood level of vitamin D high, that is between 150-225nmol/L (may require up to 10,000IU daily)
30 minutes daily
20-30 minutes around five times a week, preferably outdoors
In consultation with your doctor, if a wait and see approach is not appropriate, take one of the disease-modifying drugs (many may not need a drug, and drug selection should be carefully weighed against side effects)
Steroids for any acute relapse that is distressing
One of the more potent drugs if the disease is rapidly progressive
The MS Society, on its website, has expressed a note of caution. It says there is no conclusive evidence of the benefits of the proposed diet, a key component of the programme. It warns that the diet may not provide enough protein and may be too low in energy.
The society says: "The OMS diet recommendations are similar to the Swank diet. It advocates cutting out dairy and meat, and reducing fat intake – particularly saturated fat. It also recommends supplementation, particularly with omega 3 (in the form of fish oil or flaxseed oil) and vitamin D if your exposure to sunlight is limited.
"Research into this diet has not provided conclusive evidence of its benefits. However, as with the Swank diet, following the OMS programme is not likely to be considered bad for you.
"You should make sure you're getting enough protein in your diet, through eating plenty of fish, beans or pulses. Likewise, the diet may be low in energy, so it may not be suitable for you if you have high energy needs or you are already underweight," says the society.
Can a healthy diet help MS? Yes, but it's not a cure
Diet? Me? No. we just don't get along. Try to lose weight, have some minor success, then get disillusioned when the diet continues but the weight plateaus out. Sound familiar? And you end up back where you started or, horror of horrors, even heavier.
And I have never paid much attention to people saying that diet cured them of MS. In fact, it's nothing short of hogwash. That's not to say that diet cannot help, just that it is not a cure by itself.
A few weeks ago, this site carried news that Lisa and I were going to start eating a totally healthy and balanced vegetarian diet. Not one that has been sold to us but one that we decide for ourselves.
Before going further, l must make it quite clear, our decision to go vegetarian was not a desire to lose weight, there were no allergies involved, and we both actually like meat. Our motivation was purely the horrendous way we, as humans, treat other sentient beings with cruelty and contempt.
Hamburgers? No, no meat in these tasty veggie burgers.
Having said that, how is our veggie adventure going? In short, amazingly well.
Lisa loves cooking and now uses her skills to create the most wonderful tasty meals that are nourishing and have a great balance of protein and everything else we need – minus the animal fats.
Must admit to having misgivings at first, but the dishes that are new to my palate are fantastic. We don't just eat a plateful of vegetables, there'd be no enjoyment in that. There is so much that can be done in the kitchen, we have not even touched soya yet.
So, have we noticed any differences yet? Well, it's early days yet but we are both delighted to have lost a bi of weight. Lisa has lost two kilos (almost 4.5lbs) while I am down to 105.8kg (that's 233.25lbs to my American readers and 16st 9.25lbs to my British ones). Whatever way you say it, that's my healthiest weight for too many years to remember. A few years ago my weight was more than 120kg (266lbs, 19st). A heart scare prompted my first step, the initial loss, and our new vegetarian way of life is helping me take the second.
50shadesofsun is the personal website of Ian Franks who is Managing Editor of the columns division of BioNews Services. BioNews is owner of 50 disease-specific news and information websites, including MS News Today.
Ian has enjoyed a successful career as a journalist, from reporter to editor, in the print media; during which he gained a Journalist of the Year award in his native UK. He was diagnosed with MS in 2002 but continued working until mobility problems forced him to retire early in late 2006. He now lives in the south of Spain. Besides MS, he is also able to write about both epilepsy and cardiovascular matters from a patient's perspective and is a keen advocate on mobility and accessibility issues.
Low fat vegetarian diet looks good for MS patients
August 16, 2016 / Ian Franks	/ 2 Comments
How eating meat might possibly affect any disease, let alone multiple sclerosis, was the furthest thought from my mind as a child.
My family, as I was growing up, were all meat-eaters and this has continued throughout my journey into adulthood including one long, but ultimately failed, marriage right up to the current day – almost five years into my second attempt.
I enjoy meat and have always laughed off the scare stories about risks to health. From the mid-1990s to the early 2000s, I was a rural affairs farming journalist in an area renowned for both quality lamb and beef.
Yes, I visited many farms but was able to keep a clear, albeit false, distinction in my mind between animals in the fields and the food on my plate. Lambs could be cuddled but lamb chops were for eating. I carefully avoided visiting the local abattoir, however.
Well, this is now changing, not because of any desire by me to improve my health but because my wife Lisa has started a new anti-animal abuse website called Please – No More! She has uncovered such abuse in terms of the shameful and disgusting methods used in modern factory farming that we have decided to become vegetarians. It won't happen overnight as we still have meat in our freezer and it won't help those animals if we just throw it away.
But once it has gone, it will be gone – and both of us will hopefully benefit from enjoying a meat-free Spanish Mediterranean healthy diet. Right now, Lisa is honing her vegetarian cooking skills. Indeed, tonight we ate a completely homemade vegan lasagna and were both absolutely stunned by the fantastic taste.
Coincidentally, the potential gains to MS patients of a low-fat vegetarian diet have been a topic of discussion for quite some time but without any firm scientific evidence either way.
Now, however a pilot study seems to be saying that such a diet would be beneficial.
A team led by Dr Vijayshree Yadav, at the Oregon Health & Science University, indicates that a very-low saturated fat, plant-based diet, can be a starting point.
The results were published in the study "Low-fat, plant-based diet in multiple sclerosis: A randomized controlled trial," in the journal Multiple Sclerosis and Related Disorders.
I am not going to go into all the details here but if you are that interested in reading the entire report, just click on the link above.
Although the results showed no effect on MS disease activity, neither in MRI nor clinical tests, improvement was found in quality of life, including overall mood and levels of fatigue, the latter being a debilitating problem among Relapsing RMS patients.
"Dietary intervention participants experienced reduction in weight, body mass index (BMI), LDL ("bad" cholesterol), total cholesterol and insulin levels," the authors wrote. "These improvements would likely enhance their long-term general health if they remained on the diet.
"If maintained, the improved lipid profile and BMI could yield long-term vascular health benefits."
Official Advice: 'Take Vitamin D Supplements'
July 22, 2016 / Ian Franks	/ Leave a comment
It is not just those of us with multiple sclerosis, now everyone living in the UK is being recommended to consider taking vitamin D supplements in autumn and winter. And this comes from the country's top public health advisers.
A government-commissioned report has set the recommended levels at 10 micrograms of the vitamin a day, but officials are concerned this may not be achievable through diet alone, particularly when sunlight, which helps in vitamin D production, is as scarce as it is in the UK.
Small amounts of the vitamin can be found in certain foods but most of our vitamin D needs are met by the action of sunlight on our skin. But there is not enough of that owing to the country's frequently cloudy and depressing weather. Regular readers of this blog may recall that the grey skies were the main reason Lisa and I moved to the south of Spain last year.
Now, an extensive review of the evidence, carried out by the Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition (SACN), suggests everyone over the age of one needs to consume 10 micrograms of vitamin D each day in order to protect bone and muscle health.
And public health officials say, in winter months, people should consider getting this from 10 microgram supplements, if their diet is unlikely to provide it.
Foods that do contain vitamin D include oily fish, eggs and fortified cereals.
As far as multiple sclerosis is concerned, the US National MS Society says: "Research is increasingly pointing to a reduced level of vitamin D in the blood as a risk factor for developing MS, and studies are underway to determine if vitamin D levels influence MS disease activity. Recent research also points to a possible role for vitamin D in neuroprotection and myelin repair."
More generally, vitamin D is important because it regulates the amount of calcium and phosphate in the body, which are vital for the growth and maintenance of healthy bones, teeth and muscles.
However, balance is important because both too high a level of vitamin D is as dangerous as too low a level.
Too little can lead to rickets in children – where the bones become soft, weak and misshapen as they continue to grow. And vitamin D deficiency in adults can lead to osteomalacia – which causes severe bone pain and muscle aches.
On the other hand, too much vitamin D can lead to high levels of calcium in the blood which can cause heart and kidney problems.
Ian Franks
Birthday presents: True diagnosis and a possible treatment
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Christian Activities & Games About Kindness
Teaching kids about kindness and compassion in obedience to God is important in their spiritual growth. You can teach kindness by incorporating the lesson into Christian games or activities that everyone can enjoy. You can choose from a few different options that all emphasize kindness and how it is pleasing to God.
Memory Verse Game
Kindness Tees
Showing Kindness
Kindness Paper Chain
1 Memory Verse Game
You can teach the kids a memory verse game on Colossians 3:12, which exhorts Christians to "clothe yourselves with compassion, kindness, humility, gentleness and patience." Write words such as "compassion" or "kindness" on a piece of masking tape and stick the tape to pieces of outer clothing, such as a hat or coat. Put these clothes in two piles and then read the Bible verse to the kids and have them repeat it several times. Divide them into two teams. Have each team send someone up to put on all the outer wear, repeating the name of the character trait on it as they put it on. The first team to have all its members do this is the winner.
2 Kindness Tees
Get the kids' creative juices flowing by giving them an art project. You'll need some plain T-shirts, fabric paint, pieces of cardboard, paper plates, potatoes or apples for stamping, tape and stencils with enough letters for words like "kindness" or "compassion." Stretch the T-shirts over the cardboard and secure in back with the tape. Give the kids the stencils and let them trace the letters with a pencil. Pour fabric paint into the paper plates and let the kids stamp the inside of the letters using the paint and the carrot or potato to have it resemble a mosaic.
3 Showing Kindness
Give kids a real-life lesson in kindness. Instruct them to gather old toys and clothes they don't play with or use anymore and would like to give away. Take the whole family to a thrift store to donate the items. Everyone should donate some possessions. Talk to the children about what happens to these items, and read to them Luke 14:12-14 and discuss with them how Jesus treated the poor, and how God expects them to treat others who are less fortunate.
4 Kindness Paper Chain
Write the name of each child in the class on paper strips, making enough for each child in the class to have everyone's name. Call out a name and instruct the children to write something positive about that person beside the name. When they're done, pass the strips to the children whose names are on them. They can use glue to create paper chains of their strips.
1 "Ministry-to-Children.com"; Clothed in Kindness Bible Lesson for Children's Church; Kristin Charles; Oct. 22, 2009
2 The Hem of His Garment Bible Study: Family Bible Study on Kindness
3 Apple Sauce Kids: Preschool, Kindness Related Activities
Based in the Washington, D.C., area, Dan Taylor has been a professional journalist since 2004. He has been published in the "Baltimore Sun" and "The Washington Times." He started as a reporter for a newspaper in southwest Virginia and now writes for "Inside the Navy." He holds a Bachelor of Arts in government with a journalism track from Patrick Henry College.
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Some business men and women who are new to the world of Internet marketing attempt to market their site solely through paid-for ads, or second rate articles, without the success they are hoping for. These methods might bring a little profit to these companies, though doing business this way will never allow the companies to move up in the rankings. Read on for some tips to make your site rise to the top of the search page.
Break up long articles into shorter parts. Long pages aren't searched as thoroughly by search engines as short ones are. Additionally, most internet users prefer to read shorter articles rather than longer ones.
There are many different techniques you can use to improve your search engine rankings. Your site will show up in results more frequently if you use SEO effectively. In addition to increasing site traffic, this approach also makes your site appear more user-friendly.
Look at competitors' sites' source codes. This helps you learn how SEO is used by others and the keywords being targeted. You don't want to copy their methods but use them as a model to develop your own.
If you want a high ranking, help the web crawlers succeed in their mission. Spiders analyze all aspects of your site's content, but that content must first be easy to find. Create a detailed sitemap for your website. This will allow the web crawlers to index your site with ease.
Never utilize Flash on a site that you wish to be optimized. Flash may take a while to load and it's not currently read by the search engine crawlers, so text in a Flash fill won't be indexed. To optimize a website correctly, your website must be visible to search engines.
Internal links must use relevant anchor text for the best impact. Just typing "click here" followed by linking to that term, will not help your search rankings. Good keywords in your anchors will get you noticed by the spider crawlers.
Use header tags. If these headers are too large, use CSS to adjust the size. Search engines love headers and use them as a means to rank a website. Use H2 and H1 tags so that you're able to highlight what a product's about. This lets a search engine crawl something it finds to be worthwhile.
Design an easy to use site map that also includes your target keywords. Site maps allow easy navigation through your site, letting users get where they're going in one or two clicks. A search engine will also use your site map to give you a higher ranking because one of the things that they are looking for is how easy your website is to access.
In order to really increase your PageRank, you need to not only get visitors to your site, but keep them there. There is evidence that the more time a person is on a site the higher ranked that site will be. This information comes from metrics such as Quantcast scores. Add forums to encourage your visitors to really read the content of your site and discuss it with each other.
Find a certain niche and make yourself a guru. This marketing tool can be extremely useful. Build a site that is designed with your buyers' needs in mind, then implement SEO strategies so that they can locate what you have to offer. Always remember to give the customers what they want, not what you think they want.
Your website may be good, but it's probably not perfect. After you realize this and start identifying problems, you will be able to create an optimal site. Don't ever allow your concepts to go stale.
So you can do this all by yourself and use the advice here to help you with SEO. There are many resources available to help you learn about it. Try purchasing some highly-rated books or reading some popular websites to learn what you need to know.
You should have a listing with Yahoo and Google to get yourself out there. You get more visibility and visitors with this service. Always take advantage of free publicity.
When working to improve your search engine optimization, make sure you have an efficient description tag that will draw searchers to your site. Keep the tag under 30 words. You will need to keep the size of this page under 100kb.
One way to get around the inherent difficulty of indexing images is to use "alt" tags to associate keywords with the image. These tags will replace images if there is an error or if images aren't enabled by the user. The important factor is that search engines read and index alt tags, so keywords included in these tags will improve page ranking.
Pump out new content, and get it posted to your site as much as possible. On Monday, write down the number of stories you will write this week, and don't waiver from this commitment. Your site will be much more relevant to search engines if you regularly create original content. Sites with a regular stream of new content garner higher page rankings.
Think about ways people might search for your website, and be sure to incorporate those keywords and phrases into your site that will help them find you. You can use the keywords in the site's content, as well as page and paragraph titles, but keep in mind that excessive use of keywords can give search engines a negative impression, and make it rank lower in search results. Balance is the key to a well-made site.
Use videos and a video sitemap to increase the SEO of your website. Videos can be great for personal introductions or product demonstrations and tutorials. Post videos on your website, and be sure to use good keywords for labels. Build a video sitemap and submit it. Once you have done that, display the video on other sites, such as Yahoo, YouTube and Metacafe. Relax and watch your hits increase.
Use the companies that work with SEO to your advantage. This will help you market your site effectively and increase your search engine rankings substantially. Tons of companies offer great deals on these sorts of services.
You should have a listing with Yahoo and Google to get yourself out there. These services will provide you with the free publicity you need to glean visibility and visitors. You should never turn down opportunities for free publicity.
A great way to increase the flow of traffic to your site is by placing key search terms within the main page of your site. The best place to put your main keywords is in the first visible content on your site. Make sure not to overdo it by stuffing too many keywords into a short amount of text, though. The leading paragraph should have your keyword written twice. After your opening, drop your keyword into your next as much as is possible, without it being obvious to the reader through the next two hundred or so words.
If you want to increase your SEO, try using off-site links that will bring visitors to other quality websites. This is one important part to linking. Search engines favor relevant off-site links more than the internal ones leading you to additional pages on your own website. Look for options that will also link to your website; this will help your site rank highly and increase your traffic.
If you upgrade your website often, you will get more attention from search engine spiders. Write quality content that people will want to share. As a result, anyone who shares your articles is more likely to visit your site again and again; their friends will too!
Keyword placement throughout your website is key for search engine optimization. Include your chosen keywords carefully in the first few paragraphs of text on your site. Generally, you should aim to use the keyword two times in the first paragraph. After that, you should try and scatter your keywords throughout the following 200 words, but should avoid overusing the word or writing text that feels unnatural.
When buying a new domain, see if your host can redirect your old landing page to the new one. This means that users can tap into old bookmarks to get your new site. On your former domain, add redirect pages; this will take visitors to your new site.
When thinking about using a SEO company, ask questions beforehand. Intelligent questions include asking about their pricing, how much experience they have working with clients in your niche, what their best practices are, and find out how long you have before you start seeing results. In addition, ask if you can view a portfolio of some of their completed projects, and request contact information for references. If they are proud of their business they will be pleased to give you quality referrals.
Search engines will know that you are fixing your site to cheat the system and will take appropriate action. Some of the more notable search engines, such as Yahoo and Google, have occasionally gone so far as to ban particular companies from their search results entirely. With that advice, use an ethical guideline as you develop the search engine optimization for your website!
Make sure to sign up to all search engines that you can so that they are aware of your website and will send search engine bots to visit your site. Do this by looking on the page of a search engine and finding the proper link. Use relevant and specific words rather than just general terms to help your target audience find your website.
You will want to put a lot of knowledge on your website but stick with your niche. Expand topics within your niche by writing about other aspects involved within that niche. If you blog about baseball, include content on baseball cards, players, fans, and equipment. The more expansive your content is, the higher chances you have of gaining a solid following.
Make each page on your website unique, so they will stand out from each other. The titles that you create are very important. Your headings can make or break your search engine optimization efforts. Titles should always include the focused keyword to ensure the highest ranking possible.
Having the leader of your company involved in maintaining a blog on your site can increase your site's status. Communication from the people in charge gives the company its own voice and is satisfying to customers.
Keeping your content unique and fresh is the most important aspect of SEO. People have no use for old information, and your visitors will probably not return if they see that your content is stale and out of date.


Grab your bike and unveil Hanoi's secret with us. We will explore its hidden corners, discover some unseen treasures on a bike and finally stop by a local family to enjoy a fascinating lunch with traditional Vietnamese dishes.
Today you will have chance to explore some hidden corners of Hanoi, especially Westlake – the biggest lake in Hanoi capital, famous for its poetic beauty year around. Meet up with your guide at your hotel at around 9:00 and then we start cycling to visit some of highlights of Hanoi around the lake. Cycle through some local villages, markets, and small roads along the lake. Visit Tran Quoc Pagoda, one of the most ancient and beautiful pagodas of Hanoi with a great location on a small island on the lake.
Enjoy the bike ride to Ho Chi Minh Mausoleum and visit its outside before getting to Phan Dinh Phung avenue – one of the most beautiful roads in Hanoi with its ancient green tree line. Visit Cua Bac cathedral – a yellow ancient church with unique charming architecture in Hanoi. On arrival at the local house, enjoy welcome drink and delicious lunch prepared by your host with traditional Vietnamese dishes. The host will be happy to talk and share interesting aspects of our local culture with you while we are sipping some green tea and enjoying seasonal fruit. Transfer back to your hotel. End of services.
Use the form below to contact tour "Hanoi Biking Tour With Lunch At A Local House" directly.


To me, Loyd Calomay is a cousin I usually see at family parties. In the public sphere, he is known as the owner of independent film company Red 5 Studios.
Established during Loyd's undergraduate years at UC Irvine, Red 5 is mostly recognized for creating movie spoofs that star the bride and the groom which are then premiered at the couple's wedding reception for all their friends and family to enjoy. One of the latest videos spoofed "Inception," which went viral and gained Red 5 Studios international recognition.
When I saw the spoof Red 5 did for my brother's wedding a few years ago, I was immediately impressed by how I felt like I was just watching a family home video — but professionally produced. Seeing the recent attention that Red 5 has received, I looked forward to learning about how it all began for my cousin Loyd.
Film has always been a part of Loyd's life. He first fell in love with movies when watching "Star Wars" in the theater as a kid, and became influenced by movies by iconic directors like George Lucas and Steven Spielberg, and personally from his artistic grandfather who shot films on a Super 8.
It was the day his father gave him his own video camera during high school when Loyd's career in filmmaking began.
It seemed natural that Loyd would want to study film in college. But that wasn't the case.
"As a child of Filipino parents, I wanted to please them by going to UCI to study engineering even though I really had no interest in that field. I changed my major to studio art during my second year although my parents weren't sure what I would do in the future," he said.
Although he found himself in this common situation, he simply followed his heart, and further pursued his creativity for the rest of his college career. "After having recent success, [my parents] understand that I made the right decision," he continued.
The idea of making movie spoofs for weddings originated when Loyd and his friends made spoofs for UCI Kababayan's Pilipino Cultural Night. "When my college friends got married, I pitched the idea to do a video like the one we did for PCN — a movie spoof — this time made for a wedding," he explained.
Another special quality of Red 5 Studios is the collaborative process Loyd has with his clients. "It starts with the couple coming to me with an idea; some have specific movies they'd love to do, others come to me with an open mind […] It's a collaborative process but I write, direct, shoot and edit while the couples cast the production and bring costumes and makeup. It's really fun for everyone to experience movie-making at a smaller scale," Loyd said.
Whether it's writing a movie spoof, traveling outside the US to film a wedding, working on an upcoming documentary on Kaba Modern (which Loyd was a part of 20 years ago), or recently shooting a same-day edit at David Foster's wedding, Loyd has the same creative approach in every project.
From doing everything by himself to forming a team of talented filmmakers, Loyd continues to grow along with Red 5 Studios.


text:
Charles Schaw Cathcart 9th Baron Cathcart
Biography of Charles Schaw Cathcart 9th Baron Cathcart
Charles Schaw Cathcart, 9th Lord Cathcart (1721-1776) was Rector of the University from 1773 to 1775.
Born in Edinburgh, Cathcart served as an aide de camp to William Augustus, Duke of Cumberland, and was wounded at the Battle of Fontenoy in 1745. He subsequently held a number of senior military posts in Scotland; was a High Commissioner to the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland, and was Scotland's first Lord Commissioner of Police. In 1768 he was appointed ambassador to Russia and became a friend of Catherine the Great.
As Rector, Cathcart was influential in securing the appointment of his son's tutor William Richardson to the Chair of Humanity.
Soldier and Diplomat
Born 21 March 1721, Edinburgh, Scotland.
Died 14 August 1776.
GU Degree:
University Link: Rector
Occupation categories: diplomats; soldiers
Search for this person in the DNB
English snippet: Rector of the University (1773-1775)
Record last updated: 22nd Nov 2012
Scotland, Edinburgh
Russian Federation, No Region
Rector, 1773-1775


text:
[ March 29, 2019 ] Asteroid Gault is breaking apart as it zooms through the solar system	Sci-Fi
[ March 29, 2019 ] Snap CEO's sister Caroline Spiegel starts a no-visuals porn site – TechCrunch	Mobile
[ March 29, 2019 ] Initial findings put Boeing's software at center of Ethiopian 737 crash	Internet
[ March 29, 2019 ] Big Star Citizen Update Launches Soon	Gaming
[ March 29, 2019 ] 24-years of worldwide phone sales, mesmerizingly visualized	Gadgets
HomeCarsBMW's China electric car export plans on hold amid tariff uncertainty
BMW's China electric car export plans on hold amid tariff uncertainty
March 7, 2019 admin Cars 0
BMW's ambitions to establish China as a hub for exporting electric cars are in limbo because of uncertainty over potential trade tariffs between China and the U.S., company executives said.
BMW has factories in Europe, China and the U.S. and plans to establish China, the world's largest market for electric cars, as an export hub for such vehicles, given its lower labor costs and support for zero-emission cars.
But Washington and Beijing are locked in a trade dispute, with U.S. President Donald Trump threatening to increase tariffs to 25 percent from 10 percent on $200 billion of Chinese goods if the two sides can't reach a deal.
The uncertainty is making it hard for BMW to make a decision about exports, BMW CEO Harald Krueger said. "We have no basis for taking a decision at the moment. Whether this is financially viable and whether it makes sense needs to be evaluated," Krueger told journalists at the Geneva auto show.
BMW bought a majority stake in its Chinese joint venture partner Brilliance last year and announced plans to build the iX3, a full-electric version of its X3 SUV, at the venture's plant in China.
So far, BMW has no other plans to produce the iX3 in other markets, so that it can wait for economies of scale in a technology that has so far proven to be a low margin business.
Electric MIni
BMW has also signed a memorandum of understanding with China's Great Wall to build an electric version of the Mini. Whether an electric Mini could be exported from China is an open question, Peter Schwarzenbauer, BMW's board member responsible for Mini said in an interview.
"That's probably the most strategic question we discussed over the past two or three years. With all the uncertainty around tariffs. I wouldn't be able to give you a good answer of what will happen. The only option is to put yourself in a situation where you can react."
China's size and government regulations favoring locally produced electric cars make it worthwhile for BMW to pursue the alliance with Great Wall to build a Mini in China.
BMW is still undecided where to have Mini's export hub for electric cars. It has the option of building electric Mini's in Oxford, England, Born the Netherlands and in China, Schwarzenbauer said.
"If China export is something that can be done easily, we could export much more out of China. If this becomes difficult, we have to balance it with Oxford and Born," he said.
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Curieuse Tortoise Sanctuary. Copyright, Lexa.
with scenes from the day whirling round in their head?
that they worry how they will ever rediscover their mojo.
and pulsating veins in their temples?
Willing themselves to sleep at 3 then 4 a.m.
so they don't feel quite so exhausted later in the day.
I love this. My tortoise approves too.
Really! At the same sanctuary?! That is awesome. I had some great video clips of them munching leaves – so cute – but for life of me can't find them. Did she love seeing them? They are calm and knowing animals. The seen so kind and gentle 😀. Thank you SO much for taking the time to leave a comment. 🐢 Have a great day.
I hope you have a great day and week as well!
This is a beautiful reflection and deflection: how to talk about ourselves by talking about others.
Thanks!!!!! As always I really appreciate your comments. Hahaha! Yes, I always wonder about what goes on in animals' heads. What an awesome life if they don't stress and life really is just chilling, looking cool and eating leaves. No wonder they always look so calm if that is the case! 🐢 Have a fab evening.
Doubt that tortoises or animals in general overthink things near us much as us egotistical humans.
Agree! You too 😃 Thanks so much for taking the time to stop by my blog and leave a comment. I really appreciate it.


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Q: Should EventAggregator be used for point to point or broadcast messaging I am using the EventAggregator in Caliburn.Micro in a Windows Phone 8 App.
There are a number of places where the view-models implement IHandle<SomeClass>.
My Question is since multiple classes will be handling when an object of SomeClass is published, even though they may not be the intended recipient. So what is the best way to deal with this....

*

*Design message classes with different names (but essentially the same content) so that all communication between view-models is strictly point-to-point ?

*Or put a source property in message classes so that all receivers know the source of the message so that it can be conditionally processed ?

A: There is no right or wrong answer to this question. As I see it:

*

*There are cases when you want point-to-point and it is okay to have a specific message type (class) for solely this purpose

*There are cases when you want an event like (broadcast) behavior

*You can also have broadcast with active cancellation just like the one you have in System.Threading.Task, or like the one in the WPF eventing model where each handler is a visitor and can set the Handled flag of an event argument (say SomeClass) to true so that the other handler know they shouldn't be processing it anymore.

Also the name EventAggregator typically points to the fact that it's most common use is to aggregate handlers i.e. do broadcasting (at least this is how I see it)
Think about the WPF eventing model as an analogy.. You raise the event (publish it) but don't really care about how many handlers you have or what they are doing.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Fun Could Make Scott a Serious Threat
By Bob Verdi
Geoff Ogilvy was hanging out at home near Phoenix a couple of months ago when the phone rang. Adam Scott, his close pal, was calling from their native land. "We have to do something," Scott said. "What's going on here is brutal." Bushfires were ravaging arid portions of Australia, wiping out entire towns. "People are jumping in cars as their houses go up in smoke," Scott explained, "but the flames are outracing traffic, causing crashes and more fatalities. People are jumping into swimming pools and boiling to death. The whole country is shaken."
Scott was appealing to a mate for help, while himself preparing to contribute. "Typical of Adam," Ogilvy says. "He has an awareness of what goes on around him, and a strong appreciation of how spoiled we are, how lucky we are to live like this just for playing golf. I'm also guessing that after Scottie commits to a cause, you have to pry it out of him to discuss it. [And if you aren't aware of Scott's foundation serving disadvantaged kids, that's OK too.] He's not into PR stunts like some guys. Also, those fires were nowhere near him. Miles away, from New York to Dallas, even further."
And to think, just as Scott decided he couldn't handle blanket TV and print coverage of the carnage in mid-February, he picked up one more newspaper. On the front, another report about the havoc and the body count. Then, he turned the page to that headline: "Golf, Girls and Gulfstreams" above a tale of this 28-year-old bachelor "fast becoming golf's number one playboy, linked to a string of sexy stars and now taking delivery of a $75 million jet." The juxtaposition of stories, and Scott's assertion that certain facts were fiction, was "disappointing." But, he sighs, "It is what it is."
Alas, it is what it is even when it isn't. "I would like for my clubs to do the talking," says Scott, aware that pictures of him with Kate Hudson on a beach in Hawaii perpetuate the notion about his laissez-faire attitude toward devotion to duty. "If you know me, you know that's not true," says Scott, whose modest self-defense of priorities is seconded resoundingly by friends such as his trusted swing coach. "Adam might want it too much," says Butch Harmon, eyeing the upcoming Masters. "He tells me he plays his best at majors on Tuesday. I tell him not to treat them like life and death, but only like golf. Because that's all it is."
Harmon feels there's "no way" Scott should rank outside the world's top five players, yet golf has found a way. At last June's U.S. Open, Scott was No. 3. But with Augusta National on the near horizon, he has skidded to No. 23, a circumstance Ogilvy predicts "will look like an aberration years from now when you judge Adam's career."
Scott's 2008 indeed was a wash. He fought three bouts of recurring tonsillitis—Harmon feared it was mononucleosis—that impeded Scott's swallowing, even breathing. He broke a finger, dislocated his right kneecap a sixth time (he still deals with a large cyst) and ended a longtime relationship. "Emotional," says Ogilvy. "Adam met his girlfriend about when I met Juli. We're married with two children."
This year, one Scott promises will be different, it's about the putter and the passion. "No question, to get results, you need to make putts," says Harmon. "But comparisons with Tiger are unfair. There's only one Tiger." Ogilvy, referring to another nominee as best-player-never-to-win-a-major, says, "Sergio Garcia has sorted out his problems on the greens. If Adam improves his putting 10 percent, he'll be just fine."
Scott assures the frustrations of last season have yielded to a new enthusiasm that closely resembles his old enthusiasm. Seeing Rory McIlroy, 19, just go out and hit it recently struck a chord. "Yes, I need to win a major," says Scott. "I also need to leave no stone unturned. But above all, I need to have fun."
He marvels at Woods' time management, but is so approachable that he can wind up packing two hours of work into an eight-hour day. While on the practice green at Doral, Scott wore earpieces as BS deterrents. But they weren't plugged into anything except his pants pockets. "A few of us are hopeless when it comes to chatting it up," says Ogilvy, who recalls how Scott disembarked a plane on the runway in 2006 when he heard the news. "I had won the U.S. Open at Winged Foot, and Adam changed all his travel plans," Ogilvy goes on. "How many friends are that genuine? I'll do the same for him when it happens, and it will. Golf doesn't work when you try too hard, but it will happen. One of these days."