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Haute 100: New York City
by Haute Living
We first introduced our list of "Haute 100" New Yorkers to readers in last year's anniversary edition. The positive response was so overwhelming that we revamped the list for other cities, but New York remains, undoubtedly, the hub for the elite leaders across the globe. In the past year, many experienced dramatic shifts in their financial portfolios due to the changes in the global economy. These pages feature the top 100 power players who managed to stay at the top of their game, even through adversity. Congratulations Haute 100ers of New York.
Category Entrepreneurs
Company Fox Television
What Makes Him Haute The czar of cable news, Ailes took CNBC to the top of the media industry before jumping ship to Fox where he has served as chairman and the CEO of Fox News channel of Fox Entertainment Group Inc. since 1996.
Herbert Allen
Company Allen & Company, Coca-Cola
Industry Media & Finance
What Makes Him Haute Renowned as one of the most formidable advisers to media moguls, Allen aided Google in going public. He is president and CEO of Allen & Company and a director of both The Coca-Cola Company and the Convera Corporation. Each summer, he hosts a summit for media company executives in Sun Valley, Idaho. In recent years, this annual meeting of the minds has shifted from old school print executives to new school technology wizards.
Category Thinkers
Industry Film
What Makes Him Haute New York's greatest auteur always presents his beloved Big Apple in a sophisticated and romanticized way. His film Vicky Christina Barcelona, which was released in August of 2008, won the 2009 Spirit Award for Best Screenplay. A jazz clarinetist for over 25 years, Allen will make his operatic debut directing a new production for the opening of the L.A. Opera's 2008-2009 season.
Category Originators
André Balazs
Company André Balazs Properties
Industry Hotels
What Makes Him Haute In New York (The Mercer, The Standard, Sunset Beach, 40 Mercer Residences, One Kenmare Square, William Beaver House) and across the country, Balazs properties are a beacon for the haute bourgeoise. He just sold The Raleigh Hotel in Miami so that he can focus on building his Standard Hotel brand, and the new Meatpacking District location, which jumps the tracks of the High Line, constantly makes headlines thanks to guests who have a penchant for exhibitionism.
Company CNBC
What Makes Her Haute In 1995, Bartiromo became the first journalist to report live from the New York Stock Exchange. In today's turbulent market, more people than ever are counting on the anchor of CNBC's The Closing Bell with Maria Bartiromo for information. Her nationally syndicated Wall Street Journal Report was recently rated the most watched financial news show in the country. See our profile in this issue for more info on the Money Honey.
Category Power Couples
Mercedes & Sid Richardson Bass
Company Bass Brothers Enterprises
Industry Oil
What Makes Them Haute Sid Richardson, American investor and billionaire, made his fortune in oil and gas. He and his philanthropist and socialite wife, Mercedes, split their time between their Texas and New York homes.
Brian Benstock
Company ParagonCars.com
Industry Automotive & Internet
What Makes Him Haute An automotive pioneer, Benstock made ParagonCars.com the No. 1 Honda and Acura retailer in the world by revolutionizing the way the world buys cars on the Internet.
Category Billionaires
Company Apollo Management LP
Industry Finance
What Makes Him Haute The past year Black has taken some hits as the value of his Apollo Management fell drastically after selling a percentage to Abu Dhabi in 2007. He bought Linens 'N Things in 2005, which filed for bankruptcy this year. He's also an art world heavyweight, making Forbes' Billionaire Art Collectors list in 2009.
Lloyd Blankfein
Company Goldman Sachs
What Makes Him Haute As chairman and CEO of one of the most well-known investment banks in the world, Blankfein has had his turn in the spotlight during this economic crisis. As the economy struggled during the recession and unemployment approached 10 percent, Goldman did some of the best investment banking of its 140-year history, posting a record quarterly revenue of $13.8 billion and 65 percent growth in profits. The company's stock has doubled since January.
Company New York City and Bloomberg LP
Industry Politics
What Makes Him Haute The popular current mayor of New York City convinced the City Council to extend the two-term limit last year, allowing him to run for a third term. He earned his multibillion-dollar fortune by selling financial data and analytic tools to Wall Street. This lucrative business evolved into Bloomberg LP, which now has a magazine, cable network, and radio station. It has been reported that the philanthropic Bloomberg will sell his 68 percent stake one day and perhaps give away the fortune. In March 2009, Forbes reported his net worth at $16 billion, which makes him one of the most successful billionaires in the United States during the recession, and the world's biggest increase in wealth in 2009. As mayor of New York, Bloomberg declines to receive a city salary, accepting compensation of $1.00 annually for his services.
Daniel Boulud
Company Daniel Boulud
Industry Restaurant
What Makes Him Haute His establishments have defined the haute dining scene for over a decade. In 2009, he opened DBGB Kitchen & Bar, a "lowdown downtown place where the French brasserie meets the American tavern," and his Restaurant Daniel was awarded three stars in the 2010 Michelin Guide, the book's highest rating.
Edgar Bronfman Jr.
Company Warner Music Group
What Makes Him Haute Not only does Bronfman serve as chairman and CEO of Warner Music Group, he's also a general partner at Accretive, LLC, is chairman of the board of InterActiveCorp., and is on the board at many institutions.
Joe Cayre
Company Midtown Equities, Core Group Marketing
Industry Real Estate & Sales
What Makes Him Haute Cayre is part of a group of investors that bought the World Trade Center in 2001 and a different team of investors that bought Sears Tower in 2004. In 2007, he sold his house in Midwood, Brooklyn, for $10 million, one of the most expensive sales in the borough. Midtown Equities and Israeli holding company IDB GROUP recently acquired HSBC Bank USA's headquarters for $330 million. Cayre made his fortune by selling videos to discount retailers, including Wal-Mart.
Georgina Chapman & Harvey Weinstein
Company Marchesa, The Weinstein Company
Industry Fashion, Film
What Makes Them Haute The 2007 union between the legendary filmmaker and cofounder of Miramax and the supermodel-turned-designer for Marchesa has resulted in a New York power couple.
Company Chernin Entertainment
What Makes him Haute Widely considered one of the most powerful media executives in the world, Chernin began his own production company, titled Chernin Entertainment, following his departure from News Corporation in 2009. He is currently a board member of Malaria No More, a New York-based nonprofit with the goal of ending all deaths caused by malaria.
Ken Chenault
Company American Express
What Makes Him Haute The CEO and Chairman of American Express is one of New York City's highest paid executives. He is currently co-chair of the Business Roundtable, a director at IBM, and a member at the Council of Foreign Relations.
Eva & Michael Chow
Company MrChow
Industry Restaurants
What Makes Them Haute The bi-coastal couple opened MrChow in Midtown in 1979, and it famously served the faction who put Studio 54 in the history books. Tribeca's outpost opened in 2005 and quickly became the restaurant of choice for New York stock market mavens.
Category Entertainers
Madonna Ciccone
Industry Music
What Makes Her Haute The American recording artist, actress, entrepreneur, and pop icon is ranked by the Recording Industry Association of America as the best-selling female rock artist of the 20th century and the second top-selling female artist in the United States. She has sold more than 200 million albums worldwide.
Company SAC Capital Advisors
What Makes him Haute Cohen's hedge fund, SAC Capital, has 700 employees and $25 billion under management. According to Forbes, as of September 2008, Steven Cohen's estimated net worth was $8 billion, but fell to $5.5 billion in 2009. SAC is responsible for 2 percent of the daily volume on New York Stock Exchange.
Company Sony Music Entertainment Worldwide
What Makes Him Haute With such titles as former president of Columbia Records, founder and president of Arista Records, chairman and CEO of the RCA Music Group, and chairman and CEO of BMG North America, Clive Davis knows music. Currently CEO of Sony Music Entertainment Worldwide, he is credited with signing such classic greats as Donovan, Janis Joplin, Santana, Bruce Springsteen, Pink Floyd, and the Grateful Dead. After four decades, Davis still knows what it takes to make a hit.
Oscar & Annette de la Renta
Company Oscar de la Renta
Industry Fashion
What Makes Them Haute Oscar de la Renta is inarguably one of the world's leading fashion designers. He received the CFDA Lifetime Achievement Award in 1990 and the CFDA Womenswear Designer of the Year Award in 2000 and in 2007. Annette serves on the boards of the Metropolitan Museum, the New York Public Library, the Morgan Library, The Animal Medical Center, and the Engelhard Foundation. She also served on the board of directors of Rockefeller University for 25 years.
What Makes Him Haute Arguably the finest actor of his generation, he's also a force in Tribeca real estate and dining. The Greenwich Hotel, which is co-owned by the actor, opened in 2008.
Kasseem "Swizz Beatz" Dean
What Makes Him Haute The rapper/record producer and executive sold his first beat when he was just 17, and it became DMX's hit single Ruff Ryders Anthem. The multi-talented Beatz is also a painter, collector, CEO, entrepreneur, father, and even the United Nation's Music Ambassador for World Peace.
Company JPMorgan Chase & Co.
What Makes Him Haute Current CEO and chairman of JPMorgan, as well as a Class A director of the Board of Directors of the New York Federal Reserve, Dimon's expert finance management has earned him praise from President Obama. Previously the CEO of Bank One, then the nation's fifth-largest bank, he acquired his current position when JP Morgan Chase acquired BankOne in 2004. He was named to Time Magazine's 2009 list of the world's 100 Most Influential People.
Company Forbes
What Makes Him Haute Since taking the role of president and CEO of Forbes and editor-in-chief of Forbes magazine, the company has launched a variety of new magazines and businesses. In 1997, he launched Forbes.com, which attracts millions of unique visitors each month. He was awarded an honorary doctorate in economics from Stevenson University on April 30th, 2009. He also served as John McCain's Economic Adviser on Taxes, Energy, and the Budget during McCain's bid for the 2008 presidential election.
Category Designers
Company Tom Ford
What Makes Him Haute Formerly the creative director of Gucci, he now heads Tom Ford Fragrances and a dapper menswear line, all of which are housed in his famed Madison Avenue boutique. He is credited with turning the almost-bankrupt Gucci house into an empire valued at $4.3 billion upon his departure. He was named Menswear Designer of the Year in 2008 by the Council of Fashion Designers of America.
Company Gagosian Galleries
Industry Art
What Makes Him Haute Gagosian is a powerful figure in the contemporary arts scene, as he reps Damien Hirst, Jeff Koons, and Richard Serra, amongst others. The American art dealer, who started his business selling posters near the UCLA campus in Los Angeles, now owns the Gagosian Gallery chain, with locations in New York City, London, Los Angeles , Rome, and Athens.
Category Philanthropists
Richard Gilder
Company Gilder, Gagnon, Howe & Co.
What Makes Him Haute A trustee of Morgan Library and Museum, Central Park Conservancy, American Museum of Natural History, and the Thomas Jefferson Foundation, Gilder, along with Lewis Lehman, received the National Humanity Medal in 2005 for their work promoting education in American history.
Company Giuliani Partners LLC
What Makes Him Haute The former mayor is still the national face of New York's post-9/11 comeback. While he didn't make it all the way to the White House, he is still deciding whether or not to run for governor of New York in 2010.
Tony Goldman
Company Goldman Properties
Industry Real Estate
What Makes Him Haute He can be credited with the creation of Soho. Goldman Properties was established in 1968 with one employee in a 200-square-foot office in New York City. It has since grown to a 250-person real estate and hospitality company with offices in New York, Miami, Philadelphia, and Boston.
Category Socialites
Company Hearst
What Makes Her Haute She's the heiress to the Hearst fortune.
Company Carolina Herrera New York
What Makes Her Haute Best known for her classic minimalist designs and for having served as Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis' personal stylist for over a decade, Herrera's design house epitomizes the essence of timeless, classic style. Last year, she received the Council of Fashion Designers of America Geoffrey Beene Lifetime Achievement award.
Company Tommy Hilfiger
What Makes Him Haute He took a vision of classic American sportswear and made it into one of the world's most recognized lifestyle brands. He married his second wife, Dee Ocleppo, on December 12, 2008, and in August, they welcomed a baby boy, Sebastian Thomas Hilfiger. Then in September, he opened his new global flagship storefront on Fifth Avenue.
Company Icahn Enterprises
What Makes Him Haute He is chairman of diversified holding company Icahn Enterprises, American Railcar Industries, ImClone Systems, and Federal-Mogul, and has served as a director of Blockbuster since May 2005. He and his wife Gail are also active philanthropists, and founded three charter schools in the South Bronx, and are responsible for Icahn House in The Bronx and Icahn House East, a homeless shelter in New York City.
Company General Electric
Industry Business
What Makes Him Haute GE's CEO since 2001, Immelt has been named one of the World's Best CEOs three times by Barrons. In February, 2009, he was appointed as a member to the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board to provide the President Obama and his administration with advice and counsel in fixing America's economic downturn.
Company Marc Jacobs, Inc.
What Makes Him Haute He has built an eponymous fashion empire while simultaneously acting as creative director of Louis Vuitton. In 2009, Jacobs was ranked 15th on Out magazine's annual list of "50 Most Powerful Gay Men and Women in America." He is currently set to marry Brazilian advertising executive Lorenzo Martone.
Category Athletes
Industry Baseball
Company NY Yankees
What Makes Him Haute The Yankees drafted Derek the sixth overall pick in the June 1992 MLB First-Year Player Draft. He was the first high school player chosen that year and became the third shortstop selected in Yankees history with a first-round pick. Derek made his ninth All-Star Team in 2008, and just before our press run, he hit a two-run homer in game one of the American League division series, which the Yankees won.
Woody Johnson
Company Johnson Company, Inc.
Industry Investments
What Makes Him Haute The philanthropic heir to the Johnson & Johnson fortune purchased the New York Jets in 2000 for $635 million. In June of this year, he wed Suzanne Ircha, a former equities specialist and actress, with whom he has two sons, Robert Wood Johnson V and Jack Johnson.
Paul Tudor Jones II
Company Tudor Investment Corp.
What Makes Him Haute The self-made hedge fund billionaire founded New York City poverty-fighting group Robin Hood Foundation in 1988, which raised $70 million at a single banquet in 2007. He also formed a $125 million commodity pool with LBO executive Ray Chambers, called the One to One Charitable Fund, that devoted most of its profits to helping disadvantaged children. One of Jones' earliest and major successes was predicting Black Monday in 1987, tripling his money during the event.
Company DKNY
What Makes Her Haute Fashion designer Donna Karan founded Urban Zen Foundation in 2007 with a mission to advance the journey of health care by combining Eastern traditions with Western science. Her fashion collections continue to make headlines every season.
Raymond Kelly
Company New York City Police Department
Industry Law Enforcement
What Makes Him Haute Raymond Kelly is the current commissioner of the New York City Police Department and the first person to hold the post for two nonconsecutive tenures. Kelly spent 31 years in the NYPD, serving in 25 different commands. After his handling of the World Trade Center bombing in 1993, he was mentioned as a possible candidate for FBI Director, a position that he declined. He received The Hundred Year Association of New York's Gold Medal in recognition of outstanding contributions to the City of New York in 2006 and has received 15 citations for meritorious service in the New York City Police Department.
What Makes Her Haute This nine-time Grammy Award-winning recording artist, musician, actress, and philanthropist became the first female to have an MTV Unplugged album to debut at No. 1. In June 2009, the American Society of Composers, Authors and Publishers honored Keys with the Golden Note Award, which is given to artists "who have achieved extraordinary career milestones." She is also the co-founder and Global Ambassador of Keep a Child Alive, a non-profit organization that provides medicine to families with HIV and AIDS in Africa. Keys was honored at the 2009 BET Awards with the Humanitarian Award for her philanthropic work. Her long-awaited third studio album, As I Am, is set for a worldwide release on November 13 on J Records.
Beyonce Knowles & Shawn "Jay-Z" Carter
What Makes Them Haute These media darlings together make up one of the wealthiest power couples in the entertainment industry. More than just a hip-hop icon, the former CEO of Def Jam Recordings and Roc-A-Fella co-owns the New Jersey Nets, the 40/40 Club, and is the creator of the clothing line Rocawear and Roc Nation. With the 2009 release of The Blueprint album, he became the record-holder of most No. 1 albums by a solo artist. The track "Empire State of Mind" pays homage to New York City. Beyonce Knowles, who he quietly married in April of 2008, is an R&B singer, songwriter, record producer, actress, and model considered to be one of the most marketable artists in the music industry. In 2009, Forbes listed Beyonce fourth on its list of the "100 Most Powerful and Influential Celebrities" in the world, third on its list of the top-grossing musicians, and No. 1 on the list of "Best-Paid Celebs Under 30," with more than $87 million dollars in earnings between 2008 and 2009.
Company Koch Industries
Industry Manufacturing, energy, and commodities
What Makes Him Haute While his fortune may have fallen over the past 12 months, sales at his Koch Industries topped $100 billion in 2008, and it is now the country's second-largest private company.
What Makes Him Haute In November 2007, Koons' works became some of the most expensive by any living artist when his giant stainless-steel Hanging Heart sold at Sotheby's New York for $23.6 million, only to be topped in July 2008 by his Balloon Flower (Magenta) selling for a record $25.7 million at Christie's in London. In July of this year, he had his first major solo show at the Serpentine Gallery in London.
Bruce Kovner
Company Caxton Associates
What Makes Him Haute The self-made hedge fund billionaire dropped out of Harvard to drive a New York City taxi. He started his fortune with $3,000 borrowed from credit cards.
Marie-Josée & Henry Kravis
Company Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.
What Makes Them Haute One of the wealthiest American families, the Kravises are actively involved with several New York institutions, including the Metropolitan Museum of Art, Mount Sinai Medical Center, and the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center. Henry Kravis, an American business financier, investor, and philanthropist, is notable for co-founding and heading a leading private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., which is finally expected to go public this fall.
Edward Lampert
Company Sears Holdings Corporation, ESL Investments
What Makes Him Haute While he has taken some recent hits, the financial wizard, who once was hailed as the next Warren Buffett, went on record in September 2009 saying that his companies made important progress over the past year.
Kenneth Langone
Industry Venture Capitalism
Company Home Depot
What Makes Him Haute The financial backer and co-founder of Home Depot is also the former director of the New York Stock Exchange and an active philanthropist. He is chairman of the NYU Langone Medical Center, and in September was chosen to be the Grand Marshal of the 2009 Columbus Day Parade in New York City because he is a "virtuous man of good character, who is an ideal role model for Italian-Americans and indeed all Americans."
Leonard & Ronald Lauder
Company Estée Lauder
Industry Beauty
What Makes Them Haute Born and raised on the Upper East Side, brothers Leonard and Ronald took their mother's face cream concoction made in her kitchen and turned it into one of the nation's largest beauty conglomerates. "The Lipstick Index," an indicator of whether the economy is thriving or diving based on the sale of lipsticks, was coined in the early 2000s by Leonard.
Company Ralph Lauren
What Makes Him Haute This ambitious fashion designer and brilliant businessman, most notable for his Polo Ralph Lauren clothing line, stated in high school that he wanted to be a millionaire. Now included on the Forbes 400 list, he has succeeded his goal in spades.
Howard Lorber
Company Vector Group Limited
What Makes Him Haute As co-owner and chairman of the largest residential real estate agency in New York and chairman of hot dog conglomerate Nathan's Famous, Lorber embodies New York living, mind, body, and soul. His Prudential Douglas Eliman runs the town's high-end real estate scene, with 60 offices in the New York area, and 3,500 people who do 14,000 transactions yearly.
Jennifer Lopez & Marc Anthony
What Makes Them Haute While she may also have homes in Miami and Los Angeles, she will always be Jenny from the Block. Her husband Marc is the top tropical salsa artist of all time, selling more than 10 million albums worldwide. He was the first solo salsa act to ever sell out Madison Square Garden.
William Mack
Company Apollo Real Estate Advisors, L.P.
What Makes Him Haute Mack is a third generation real estate tycoon best known for co-developing the Time Warner Center. He also heads Apollo Real Estate Advisors, serves as chair of real estate investment trust Mack-Cali Realty, and is chairman of the Guggenheim. As of December 2008, Apollo managed more than $37 billion of investor commitments across its private equity funds and other investment vehicles, making it one of the largest private equity firms in the world.
Company Macklowe Properties
What Makes him Haute The Manhattan developer might have made some recent headlines over some deals gone south, but make no mistake that Macklowe is still one of the city's great real state moguls, owning a number of New York landmarks.
Company New York Giants
Industry Sports
What Makes Him Haute After delivering an against-all-odds Super Bowl title with a near-flawless and gutsy playoff run during the 2007-2008 season, he's got the Giants rolling again in 2009. As of press time, he's averaging two touchdown passes and better than 250 passing yards per game this season, and his completion rate of 63.2 percent is seven points above his career average.
Company Richard Meier & Partners, Architects LLP
Industry Architecture
What Makes Him Haute The starchitect is the brainchild behind the three glass towers at 173 and 176 Perry Street and 165 Charles Street in the West Village, which have attracted the likes of Martha Stewart, Natalie Portman, and Calvin Klein.
Paul Milstein
Company Milstein Properties
What Makes Him Haute This American real estate developer and philanthropist billionaire owns apartment towers from Battery Park City to the Upper East Side, offices in Midtown, and several undeveloped lots across Manhattan.
Company News Corp.
What Makes Him Haute The Australian-born global media mogul controls News Corp., which brings in $25 billion a year and has more than 50,000 employees, making it the most powerful media conglomerate. According to the 2009 Forbes 400, Murdoch is the 132nd-richest person in the world, with a net worth of $4 billion.
Si Newhouse Jr.
Company Condé Nast
What Makes Him Haute As the chairman of Advance Publications, which controls more than two dozen magazines, the low-profile and hands-on Newhouse personally selects Condé Nast's publishers and editors in chief. He is best known for his philanthropy, which resulted in the SI Newhouse School of Public Communications at Syracuse University, as well as being a notable art collector.
Dr. Mehmet Oz
Company New York Presbyterian Medical Center
Industry Medicine
What Makes Him Haute After five years as the health expert on The Oprah Winfrey Show, the city's most famous surgeon debuted his own syndicated health show in September, aptly titled The Dr. Oz Show. He is also director of the Cardiovascular Institute and Complementary Medicine Program at New York Presbyterian Hospital.
Richard Parsons
Company Time Warner
What Makes Him Haute His financial advice is coveted by even the most powerful individuals; Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner met with Parsons as many as 17 times during his first year in office. The lawyer-turned-banker-turned-media executive is the chairman of Citigroup and the former chairman and CEO of Time Warner, and he announced in September that he joined Providence Equity Partners as a senior advisor.
Company Pei Cobb Freed & Partners
What Makes Him Haute From the Kips Bay Plaza in 1963 to the Four Seasons Hotel in 1993 to the Centurion in 2008, this Pritzker Prize-winning architect has been shaping the skyline of New York City for decades. Known as the last master of high modernist architecture, he has been named as the recipient of the 2010 RIBA Royal Gold Medal, an honor that will be presented in February 2010 at a ceremony at the Royal Institute of British Architects in London.
Ronald Perelman
Company Scientific Games Corp.
What Makes Him Haute Yet another self-made billionaire on our list, Perelman made his fortune through leveraged buyouts. In 2008, the Chronicle of Philanthropy listed Perelman as the 26th largest donor in the U.S., having donated more than $63 million to a multitude of charities in 2008 alone. He just branched into the restaurant business, opening Monkey Bar in Manhattan with Vanity Fair editor Graydon Carter and Blue Parrot in East Hampton with Renée Zellweger.
Mikhail Prokhorov
Industry Investment
What Makes Him Haute In September, Russia's wealthiest man agreed to a $200 million deal that makes him principal owner of the New York Nets and a key investor in the team's proposed new Brooklyn home. He may still live in Russia, making him the NBA's first overseas team owner, but New York women already have their eyes peeled for the playboy billionaire, who has a reputation for throwing lavish parties.
Stewart Rahr
Industry Pharmaceuticals
Company Kinray
What Makes Him Haute He evolved his father's Brooklyn pharmacy into the world's largest privately held distributor of pharmaceutical, generic, health and beauty, and homecare health products, with an annual revenue of around $5 billion. One of the wealthiest men on the planet, "Rah-Rah" Rahr is the self-proclaimed King of All Fun. At the time, his $45 million purchase of an estate in East Hampton was the most expensive real estate transactions in New York State's history.
Emily Rafferty
Company Metropolitan Museum of Art
What Makes Her Haute Rafferty oversees 2,000 employees, a $190 million annual operating budget, and an $80 million merchandising business. She is the first woman to run the day-to-day operations of the Metropolitan Museum of New York and consequently is renowned as one of the most influential women in New York.
Denise Rich
Industry Social
What Makes Her Haute The successful songwriter is a staple in the New York society circuit.
Loren & JR Ridinger
Industry Internet Commerce
Company Market America
What Makes Them Haute The Ridinger's company, Market America, which they started out of a garage in North Carolina, has generated more than $2.5 billion in accumulated retail sales, earning MA distributors and UnFranchise Business Owners more than $1.6 billion in commissions and estimated retail profits. The Ridingers spend their winters in Miami and the summer months in their New York penthouse, where they entertain a plethora of their celebrity friends including Eva Longoria, Shakira, Alicia Keys, Swizz Beatz, and others.
Category Dynasties
The Rockefellers
Company Standard Oil Company, Chase Manhattan Bank/JPMorgan Chase
Industry Industrial, Banking
What Makes Them Haute This world-renowned industrial, banking, real estate, and political dynasty made the world's largest private fortune in the oil business, primarily through the Standard Oil Company, powering America's lamps and, eventually, their automobiles. Most noted for their philanthropic endeavors in education, health, and conservation, John D. Rockefeller reportedly gave away $540 million over his lifetime and became the greatest lay benefactor of medicine in history. Independent researchers have valued the assets of the Rockefeller family as high as $110 billion, though an exact figure is unknown. The family business headquarters is now located in New York City's Rockefeller Plaza.
Company Charlie Rose
What Makes Him Haute In September, 2009, CNN described Rose as "America's tallest, handsomest, best-connected, most inquisitive, most talkative late-night TV interviewer." Over the past 16 years, he has interviewed nearly 6,500 of the globe's most interesting and influential people, including President Obama, Bill Clinton, Al Pacino, and Jonathan Tisch.
Aby Rosen
Company RFR Holding
What Makes Him Haute This superstar German-born developer is a New York real estate mogul. His collection of prized New York landmarks like the Seagram Building and the Lever House can only be rivaled by his contemporary art collection. In July 2009, his project in Miami, the W South Beach, opened its doors and instantly became the Beach's go-to haute spot.
Barry Rosenstein
Company JANA Partners, LLC
What Makes Him Haute Formerly in our "Billionaires" category, this corporate takeover specialist is the founder and managing partner of JANA Partners LLC, a $5 billion event-driven hedge fund that launched in April 2001.
Company W.L. Ross & Co.
What Makes Him Haute Billionaire Ross launched the W.L. Ross & Co. investment fund with $440 million in capital and a small staff that he recruited from Rothschild. His current net worth is estimated at $1.7 billion.
Stephen Ross
Company Related Companies
What Makes Him Haute Ross' Related has acquired or developed more than $15 billion in real estate assets since its inception. Currently, Related is working on developing Moynihan Station, which will move Madison Square Garden and renovate Penn Station. In January 2009, he purchased the Miami Dolphins and Land Shark Stadium for $1 billion.
Scott Rudin
Company Scott Rudin Productions
What Makes Him Haute The prolific Academy Award-winning American film producer and Tony Award-winning theater producer is notorious for making 500-plus phone calls a day and was involved in 2008's Oscar nods There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men (with eight nominations for each). No Country for Old Men took home the Best Picture prize.
Diane Sawyer & Mike Nichols
Company ABC (Sawyer)
Industry News, Movies
What Makes Them Haute Emmy-winning Sawyer gives us the news and Oscar-winning Nichols, a television, stage, and film director, writer, and producer, provides the entertainment. The duo lives happily on the Upper East Side.
What Makes Him Haute This award-winning painter, sculptor, film director, and musician will soon launch his next film, and audiences are eagerly awaiting its arrival.
Ian Schrager
Company Ian Schrager Company
Industry Hospitality
What Makes Him Haute Credited with revolutionizing the entertainment and hospitality industries, Schrager burst onto the scene in the 70s with his club Studio 54. He has since redefined the boutique hotel genre, and his residential projects, such as 40 Bond and 50 Gramercy Park North, make national headlines. Schrager reportedly inked a deal in May of 2009 with Murray Hill Properties LLC, a New York City real estate investment firm, to develop a six-star, ultra luxury hotel at 1414 Avenue of the Americas.
Stephen Schwarzman
Company Blackstone Group
What Makes Him Haute The chairman, CEO, and co-founder of Blackstone Group, known for his lavish lifestyle, donated $100 million to the New York City Library in March of 2008, which led to the main building being renamed in his honor. In October 2009, it was announced that the Blackstone private equity empire is buying 10 U.S. theme parks, including SeaWorld in Florida and California, for $2.7 billion from brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev.
Company World Cinema Foundation
What Makes Him Haute Critics and film scholars have called him the greatest living American director, several of his movies occupy spots on the AFI's list of greatest movies, he finally got that Oscar for 2007's The Departed, and, thankfully, there are no signs of him slowing down.
Industry Television
What Makes Him Haute He revolutionized the TV sitcom, left an indelible mark on popular culture, and became wealthy in the process. He's also remained grounded in his New York roots. This September, the Seinfeld cast reunited for an episode of Curb Your Enthusiasm, which gave the show its highest rating in years.
Company Rush Communications
Industry Fashion, Music
What Makes Him Haute The founder of Rush Communications, which has a hand in music, fashion, art, media, telecom, philanthropy, jewelry, and more, can be credited with starting the hip-hop movement through the founding of Def Jam Recordings. In May 2009, Simmons was appointed Goodwill Ambassador for the Permanent Memorial at the United Nations to Honor the Victims of Slavery and the Transatlantic Slave Trade by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.
Company Soros Fund Management, LLC
What Makes Him Haute Soros Fund Management was one of the few hedge-fund firms that saw this financial crisis as a buying opportunity, and the firm's assets across all types of investments grew by 41 percent to $24 billion from July 2008 to July 2009. Besides presiding over the hedge fund that bears his name, he has authored 10 books, is a strong political activist, and one of the city's most revered philanthropists.
Michael Sovern
Company Sotheby's, Comcast
Industry Business Services
What Makes Him Haute The former president of Columbia University is currently the Chancellor Kent Professor of Law at Columbia Law School and the director and chairman of the board at Sotheby's Holdings, Inc., as well as the director of Comcast Corporation.
Company New York Yankees
What Makes Him Haute The principal owner of the Bronx Bombers, "The Boss" has reigned over baseball's greatest dynasty since 1973, sparing no expense to bring home 10 pennants and six World Series rings. This season he witnessed the fulfillment of a dream, a new Yankee Stadium. Legend's Field, the Yankees Spring Training facility in Tampa, was renamed Steinbrenner Field in March 2008 in his honor.
Company The Howard Stern Show on Sirius Satellite Radio
What Makes Him Haute The iconoclastic gatekeeper of a legion of 15-minutes-of-famers, the self-proclaimed "King of All Media" remains a top-rated radio personality. He has had a successful movie, two best-selling books, and now, his own digital cable station, Howard TV. He is one of the highest-paid radio personalities in the United States.
Company Hartz Group
What Makes Him Haute Stern's company owns 38 million square feet of commercial, residential, and retail property in New Jersey and New York. His son Emanuel oversees family's real estate empire, including Manhattan hotels Soho Grand and Tribeca Grand. Thanks to a $30 million donation to his alma mater, NYU, in 1988, the business school now bears his name.
Company Robert A.M. Stern Architects
What Makes Him Haute Stern is a fellow of the American Institute of Architects, and received the AIA New York Medal of Honor in 1984 and the Chapter's President's Award in 2001. Stern is the architect behind the Zeckendorf's 15 Central Park West.
Company Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia
Industry Entertainment
What Makes Her Haute The doyenne of domesticity, this comeback queen is an American business magnate, television host, bestselling author, and magazine publisher. As founder of Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia, she has garnered success through a variety of business ventures, encompassing publishing, broadcasting, and merchandising.
Arthur Sulzberger Jr.
Company New York Times
What Makes Him Haute Chairman and publisher of the New York Times has been running the paper's day-to-day operations since 1992. Say what you will about the newspaper industry; during his tenure as publisher, the paper has earned 39 Pulitzer Prizes.
Tisch Family
Company Various
What Makes Them Haute Arguably one of the most influential families in New York, the Tisch's philanthropic involvement has touched nearly every institution of the city from NYU to Central Park.
Company Trump Organization
What Makes Them Haute One of the most iconic families in the city, the Trumps are a real estate dynasty.
Ivanka Trump & Jared Kushner
Industry Real Estate & Publishing
Company Trump Organization / New York Observer
What Makes Them Haute Ivanka not only is a style icon, but an unstoppable business force, and not solely thanks to her heiress status. She has proven her business acumen time and again as VP of Real Estate Development and Acquisitions for the family company, and also launched a highly successful jewelry line. In July of this year, she converted to Judaism in preparation for her nuptials at the end of October with owner of the New York Observer, Jared Kushner, son of real estate developer Charles Kushner. They plan to wed at Trump golf course in Bedminster, NJ.
Vanderbilt Family
Company Michigan Central Railroad
Industry Railroad & Shipping
What Makes Them Haute Leaders of the high society until the 1900s, the Vanderbilt family, led by Cornelius Vanderbilt, created railroad and shipping empires, in addition to sprawling mansions in New York, Newport, and Asheville. The Vanderbilt family remains the seventh wealthiest family in history, and their modern legacy includes Vanderbilt University as well as Vanderbilt Avenue in Midtown Manhattan, which runs alongside Grand Central Terminal. CNN anchor Anderson Cooper is the son of Gloria Vanderbilt and great-grandson of Cornelius Vanderbilt II.
Diane von Furstenberg & Barry Diller
Company Diane von Furstenberg / Interactive Corp.
Industry Fashion / Media
What Makes Them Haute The president of the Council of Fashion Designers of America, she has one of her famous wrap dresses displayed in the Metropolitan Museum of Art. He's a media titan and visionary who heads New York holding company Interactive Corp. DVF's atelier, office, apartment, takes up a corner building in New York's Meatpacking District, and Diller stays in a suite at the Carlyle during the week. They spend weekends at Cloudwalk, her estate in Connecticut, or on Diller's yacht, Eos, thought to be the largest private sailing boat in the world.
Bruce Wasserstein
Company Lazard Ltd and Lazard Group
What Makes Him Haute This financial wizard is also the owner of the venerable New York magazine. In 2009, it looked like he was going to add Business Week to his portfolio, but decided against making a final bid in September.
Company Jack Welch, LLC
What Makes him Haute This award-winning syndicated writer and special partner of private equity firm Clayton, Dubilier & Rice was named "Manager of the Century" by Fortune in 2000 due to his tenure at General Electric. This year, he spent three months in the hospital battling discitis, and his prognosis was so bad doctors didn't think he would make it, but he persevered, going home from the hospital in early October.
William & Arthur Zeckendorf
Company Terra Holdings
What Makes Them Haute They are the brothers behind the most expensive address in the city: 15 Central Park West. Owners and co-chairmen of Terra Holdings and Zeckendorf Realty, LP, the brokerage that developed 515 Park Avenue, a 43-story condominium in Manhattan that is the most luxurious apartment house built in more than 50 years. 515 Park Avenue has established records for the highest priced residential property per square foot in Manhattan history. They were both the owners and developers of this project.
Mortimer Zuckerman
Company Boston Properties, U.S. News & World Report, New York Daily News
Industry Real Estate & Media
What Makes Him Haute Zuckerman, a Canadian-born American magazine editor, publisher, and real estate billionaire, is chairman of Boston Properties, one of the largest real estate developers in the United States, and the owner the New York Daily News and U.S. News & World Report, of which he is also editor-in-chief.
Victoria Secret at the Gansevoort South
The First Lady of Finance
Todd Gurley Is Laid-Back, Relaxed & Loving That L.A.
Jermaine Dupri Reaches New Heights With His Induction
By Violet Camacho
Music Icon Rick Ross talks New Album and Growing Empire


If you walked through Rockefeller Center today, you could be forgiven for thinking that the holidays had come early this year.
However, the giant, colorful structure that was erected above the Prometheus Fountain isn't some sort of warm weather Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree. It's actually an inflatable Jeff Koons sculpture that was inspired by a small porcelain figurine.
The towering work of public art, entitled Seated Ballerina, was mounted thanks to Kiehl's and the Art Production Fund in order to raise awareness about National Missing Children's Month this May. The piece is made of inflatable nylon and is part of Koon's Antiquity series.
See a wider shot of the sculpture, which you can check out for yourself through June 2, below.
This is a copy of work of Ukrainian porcelain artist Oksana Zhnykrup's "Lenochka ballerina on padded stool".
Obnoxious plagiarism to the max!
The highest paid living artist Jeff Kroons makes an inflatable exact copy of "The ballerina Lenochka on the padded stool", Kiev 1960s by the Ukrainian Sculptor - Oksana Zhnykrup (#ОКСАНАЖНИКРУП), model of 1974.
I find it hard to believe that "an artist" who owns a factory of artists doing work for him didn't have the means to research the identity of the original author. It's very common to be inspired by other artists, but if someone of his standing doesn't bother to credit the source of his inspiration, especially when his work is an exact copy of another artist, well - than he is no more than a con artist. It's not like Oksana Zhnykrup would be claiming any royalties, but she must be turning in her grave now. Therefore, this is not a matter of money but of basic human decency!
If the New York art community, especially the art critics and the Rockefeller Centre don't boycott this behavior, than this implies that they are encouraging it. After all, if the big guys can get away with successful copycat behavior - than why shouldn't everyone else try to do the same? I doubt that the people who once bought his works for tens of millions$ in auctions will raise hell over his tactics because this would mean that they f****ng overpaid and this would make them look stupid.
P.S. Given the currently ongoing amount of public outrage on the internet, I am super curious how Mr. Kroons will try to save his face. His commentary "I found it somewhere in a Russian factory" just doesn't cut it: Oksana Zhnykrup held numerous exhibits in the West, including USA.


Submitted by Steev on Thu, 03/05/2009 - 10:19am.
In this 3rd installment of the News On The "Line Transition in the Borderlands" series, San Diego electropop artist Jeffrey "Mono Mono" Beringer talks about the border wall, cross-cultural love, and his hopes for change in the future.
Mono Mono On The Border from steev hise on Vimeo.
A filmmaker, videojournalist, activist, and artist, Steev is based in Tucson, Arizona. He has been reporting on various aspects of the borderlands since 2004, including a documentary about the murdered women of Ciudad Juarez, "On The Edge," and a recent video made for the Sierra Club on the ecological effects of the border wall, "Wild Versus Wall."


text:
Q: PHP contact form script not sending emails I am not very good with php and my friend helped me with this php contact form script. But this does not seem to send emails to the desired address. Can you please suggest what might be the problem with this script?
I really appreciate it. Thanks
    <?php
$error = array();

if(!empty($_POST['contact_submit']) && ($_POST['contact_submit'] == 'submit') ) {
    if(!empty($_POST['name'])) {
        $name = filter_var($_POST['name'], FILTER_SANITIZE_STRING);
    } else {
        $error[] = 'Please enter your name.';
    }

    if(!empty($_POST['email'])) {
        if(filter_var($_POST['email'], FILTER_VALIDATE_EMAIL)) {
            $email = filter_var($_POST['email'], FILTER_SANITIZE_EMAIL);
        } else {
            $error[] = 'Please enter a correct email address.';
        }
    } else {
        $error[] = 'Please enter your email address.';
    }

    if(!empty($_POST['phone'])) {
        if(filter_var($_POST['phone'], FILTER_VALIDATE_INT)) {
            $phone = filter_var($_POST['phone'], FILTER_SANITIZE_NUMBER_INT);
        } else {
            $error[] = 'Phone number only expects number';
        }
    } else {
        $error[] = 'Please enter your email address.';
    }

    if(!empty($_POST['time'])) {
        $time = filter_var($_POST['time'], FILTER_SANITIZE_STRING);
    } else {
        $error[] = 'Please enter your best time to contact.';
    }

    if(!empty($_POST['msg'])) {
        $msg = filter_var($_POST['msg'], FILTER_SANITIZE_STRING);
    } else {
        $error[] = 'Please enter your message.';
    }

    if(empty($error)) {
        $to      = 'your@email.com';
        $subject = 'from contact form';

        $message = $phone . "\r\n";
        $message .= $time . "\r\n";
        $message .= $msg;

        $headers  = 'MIME-Version: 1.0' . "\r\n";
        $headers .= 'Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1' . "\r\n";
        $headers .= 'From: '.$name.' <'. $email.'>' . "\r\n" .
            'Reply-To: '.$name.' <'. $email . '>' ."\r\n";

        //echo '
'; var_dump($to, $subject, $message, $headers); echo '
'; die();

        mail($to, $subject, $message, $headers);
    }
}

?>

<?php
if(!empty($error)) {
    echo '
';
    echo '
' . implode('

', $error) . '
';
    echo '
';
}
?>

<form method="post" action="">
    <input type="text" name="name" value="" placeholder="Enter your name" class="email_form"/>
    <input type="text" name="email" value="" placeholder="Enter your email address" class="email_form"/>
    <input type="text" name="phone" value="" placeholder="Phone number" class="email_form"/>
    <input type="text" name="time" value="" placeholder="Best time to contact. e.g. 3 am" class="email_form"/>
    <textarea name="msg" placeholder="Your message" class="email_form"></textarea>

    <input type="image" value="submit" name="contact_submit" src="images/submit.png" width="96" height="43" class="email_button">
</form>

A: Change this line:
if(!empty($_POST['contact_submit']) && ($_POST['contact_submit'] == 'submit') ) {

to
if(isset($_POST['contact_submit']) ) {

and
<input type="image" value="submit" name="contact_submit" src="images/submit.png" width="96" height="43" class="email_button">

to
<input type = "submit" value="submit" name="contact_submit">

PHP is looking for a submit type, and you're using an image type.

*

*If you still want to use the image as the submit button:

You will need to change:
if(!empty($_POST['contact_submit']) && ($_POST['contact_submit'] == 'submit') )

to another conditional statement.
For example:
if(!empty($_POST['email'])){

You can always add on to that conditional statement with the other fields you wish to check if they are set/empty.
For example:
if(!empty($_POST['email']) || !empty($_POST['name'])){

*

*Upon testing your code, the code did not work till those changes were made.

N.B.: If mail is still not being sent/received, you will need to make sure that mail() is indeed available for you to use, and/or check your logs and the Spam box.
Add error reporting to the top of your file(s) which will help during production testing.
error_reporting(E_ALL);
ini_set('display_errors', 1);

*

*Which will trigger any errors found.

Footnotes:
The phone field needs to be all numbers, otherwise it will fail.
I.e.: 555-234-5678 did not work, but 5552345678 did, therefore you will need to inform your users of how it should be entered.

Edit: (full code) - copy exactly as shown while changing email@example.com to your own Email.
<?php

error_reporting(E_ALL);
ini_set('display_errors', 1);

$error = array();

if(isset($_POST['contact_submit']) ) {
    if(!empty($_POST['name'])) {
        $name = filter_var($_POST['name'], FILTER_SANITIZE_STRING);
    } else {
        $error[] = 'Please enter your name.';
    }

    if(!empty($_POST['email'])) {
        if(filter_var($_POST['email'], FILTER_VALIDATE_EMAIL)) {
            $email = filter_var($_POST['email'], FILTER_SANITIZE_EMAIL);
        } else {
            $error[] = 'Please enter a correct email address.';
        }
    } else {
        $error[] = 'Please enter your email address.';
    }

    if(!empty($_POST['phone'])) {
        if(filter_var($_POST['phone'], FILTER_VALIDATE_INT)) {
            $phone = filter_var($_POST['phone'], FILTER_SANITIZE_NUMBER_INT);
        } else {
            $error[] = 'Phone number only expects number';
        }
    } else {
        $error[] = 'Please enter your email address.';
    }

    if(!empty($_POST['time'])) {
        $time = filter_var($_POST['time'], FILTER_SANITIZE_STRING);
    } else {
        $error[] = 'Please enter your best time to contact.';
    }

    if(!empty($_POST['msg'])) {
        $msg = filter_var($_POST['msg'], FILTER_SANITIZE_STRING);
    } else {
        $error[] = 'Please enter your message.';
    }

    if(empty($error)) {
        $to      = 'email@example.com';
        $subject = 'from contact form';

        $message = $phone . "\r\n";
        $message .= $time . "\r\n";
        $message .= $msg;

        $headers  = 'MIME-Version: 1.0' . "\r\n";
        $headers .= 'Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1' . "\r\n";
        $headers .= 'From: '.$name.' <'. $email.'>' . "\r\n" .
            'Reply-To: '.$name.' <'. $email . '>' ."\r\n";

        //echo '
'; var_dump($to, $subject, $message, $headers); echo '
'; die();

        mail($to, $subject, $message, $headers);
    }
}

?>

<?php
if(!empty($error)) {
    echo '
';
    echo '
' . implode('

', $error) . '
';
    echo '
';
}
?>

<form method="post" action="">
    <input type="text" name="name" value="" placeholder="Enter your name" class="email_form"/>
    <input type="text" name="email" value="" placeholder="Enter your email address" class="email_form"/>
    <input type="text" name="phone" value="" placeholder="Phone number" class="email_form"/>
    <input type="text" name="time" value="" placeholder="Best time to contact. e.g. 3 am" class="email_form"/>
    <textarea name="msg" placeholder="Your message" class="email_form"></textarea>

    <input type = "submit" value="submit" name="contact_submit">

</form>

You can also show a message if it was sent successfully by replacing:
mail($to, $subject, $message, $headers);

with:
if(mail($to, $subject, $message, $headers)){

  echo "Mail sent, thank you.";

 }

 else{
   echo "There was an error.";
}

You can also log the error:

*

*http://php.net/manual/en/function.error-log.php

0   message is sent to PHP's system logger, using the Operating System's system logging mechanism or a file, depending on what the error_log configuration directive is set to. This is the default option.
1   message is sent by email to the address in the destination parameter. This is the only message type where the fourth parameter, extra_headers is used.
2   No longer an option.
3   message is appended to the file destination. A newline is not automatically added to the end of the message string.
4   message is sent directly to the SAPI logging handler.

I.e.:
if(mail($to, $subject, $message, $headers)){

  echo "Mail sent, thank you.";

 }

 else{
   error_log("Error!", 3, "/var/tmp/mail-errors.log");
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Michael Raphael is responsible for the underwriting, placement of debt and equity including identification of potential investors, and timely execution of all commercial real estate transactions. He has more than seven years of financial service experience and a track record of managing complex transactions across a variety of asset classes from inception to delivery.
Prior to LGA, Michael served as the head of Investment Strategy for the Baltimore Angels, an angel investor group that provides growth equity for early-stage, technology-based companies. His responsibilities included deal-sourcing, due diligence and valuations, and portfolio support and management. He has also worked for Tejas Securities, a broker-dealer based in New York City. While there, he worked closely with institutional investors to identify, analyze and execute investment opportunities in the high-yield and distressed debt markets and co-founded a trading desk focused on bankruptcy trade claims.
Michael received his Master of Business Administration (MBA) at Johns Hopkins University Carey Business School, concentrating in Finance and Entrepreneurship. Michael holds a degree in Economics & Political Science from the University of Miami.
Michael holds his Series 7 (General Securities Representative), Series 63 (Uniform Securities State Law), and Series 66 (Uniform Combined State Law) securities licenses and sits on the Index Committee of WilderShares ECO Index Fund which tracks the performance of the clean energy sector.
Michael is a member of the Young Leadership Council for The Associated, a member of The Associated's Real Estate Committee, and is an observer of the Board of Directors of CHAI.
He currently resides in Pikesville, MD with his wife and two children.


text:
'use strict';

angular.module('pixie.dashboard')

.directive('edToggleInfoPanel', ['rightPanel', 'localStorage', function(rightPanel, localStorage) {
    return {
        restrict: 'A',
        link: function($scope, el) {
            el.on('click', function() {
                $scope.$apply(function() {
                    rightPanel.open = !rightPanel.open;
                    localStorage.set('rightPanelOpen', rightPanel.open);
                })
            });
        }
    }
}]);

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
WoW Loses 600k Subs; Solution? More Paid Expansions
May 9, 2011 Amatera General 13
Sometimes it helps to take the honey with the vinegar, but not even the announcement for an impending third-quarter Diablo III beta test could soothe the sting of losing around 600,000 World of Warcraft subs over the past couple of months. It is now around 11.4 million, down from over 12 million. Blizzard CEO Mike Morhaime had to break the news during the company's quarterly conference call earlier today.
Like anything else, popularity ebbs and flows and the spikes and valleys on the sales charts can usually be linked to periods of new content or players losing interest in the old. The real problem is that the peaks aren't lasting as long as they used to. Losing 600k is one thing, but the fact that it has happened faster after Cataclysm than it has following any previous expansion is the real kick-in-the-pants.
Undoubtedly, everyone will have their own take on the news and opinions as to why precisely people are leaving the game in such sizable chunks, but what it comes down to at the end of the day — the one idea that seems to remain constant — is fatigue. I don't believe that people are tired of MMORPGs or even the story of Azeroth itself, but rather the way that Blizzard conducts itself and the ever (d?)evolving philosophy that shapes the game's continued development.
World of Warcraft would not have reached such insane numbers of subscriptions if it weren't for the casual players and as the Farmville-addled masses flooded the channels with their girth, Blizzard was forced to compensate. Always pushing towards equalization and homogenization; making things simpler and easier to understand; removing those elements from the formula that, while perplexing, also made WoW interesting. And we, the fans and media, are complicit.
Why? Well, we encouraged it. For better or worse, this is kind of what we wanted, but we didn't know any better. Changes to the game over the past few years have been a double-edged sword, and Cataclysm has proven to be the sharpest, shiniest double-edged sword yet. Allow me to elaborate with a broad example: we're tired of leveling through the same old vanilla content, so we get a vastly modified 1-60 game. Zones are more engaging visually, travel is streamlined, quests are given a spitshine to ensure that not all of them are simple "kill x/gather y" affairs (though many still are). And yet, for a better and more polished game, we also get a less "fun" experience. It's okay one time through, but it becomes so damn easy and there is no sense of exploration left.
How else have we done it? We've killed any difficulty with boss encounters and completing quests beyond pure execution. We've created mods and posted comprehensive strategies on very high-profile websites, which has in turn prompted Blizzard to incorporate elements of such helpful third-party resources into the game itself. And yet that does not absolve the company's reliance on casual players of blame, because an absolutely amazing number of players, even with all this help, still do not understand how to play.
It's that kind of tragedy that causes hardcore players to spin in their revolving office chairs. Sure, they've made use of the help as well, but at least they know how to put their knowledge into practice, and honestly, once that information is out in the wild, there's no putting it back in the cage. Sooner or later, almost everybody is going to suffer the temptation of going to Tankspot or WoWpedia for help simply because those sorts of websites exist.
You also can't count on casuals to stick with the game forever. You might, as evidenced, ensure several "boom" years, but a decade down the road, these aren't the people who are still going to be playing your game. These aren't the kind of people who are still playing Ultima Online to this day. Shoulda-woulda-couldas aside, it seems that the arc a company like Blizzard should have followed would have catered towards the casual crowd for a period of two-to-three years and then, building a healthy subscribe base as they did, and then zeroed in on satisfying the more dedicated players.
Instead, they more or less did the opposite. Despite the integration of "instant gratification" rewards and the way quests were handled, WoW started off as an MMO nearly as obtuse as any that had come before it. There was a lot of stuff that players had to figure out on their own and vanilla content proved to be highly difficult. However, there was just enough accessibility compared to other genre entries to pull in a large crowd right from the get-go. But as time went on, it seemed like Blizzard was scrambling around trying to figure out how to keep these casuals playing. Ironically (and thankfully, in my opinion) they've done everything but the most obvious — which is to put in a cash shop with loads of meaningless tchotchkes to buy and decorate your character with. Instead, they chose to eliminate any mystery or intrigue that the world of Azeroth had to offer.
Let me tell you, it was remarkably strange when I started to play RIFT. Not that RIFT doesn't follow the now-standard MMORPG formula quite closely, but it was downright weird only having one "flight point" in any of the game's massive zones and absolutely no flying mounts to speak of. I've been forced, many times, to backtrack across the landscape, dodging enemies on all sides, just so I could teleport back to the main city and turn in a couple of quests or do some crafting. It seems archaic, but therein I found the missing half of the equation — risk.
World of Warcraft has almost completely divested itself of the "risk" side of the "risk-and-reward" equation. Rewards are handed out like candy with no danger or interest involved in obtaining them. And despite their copious protestations, few human beings are actually comfortable with this setup in the long term. They either start getting suspicious of the rewards and wonder whether or not they actually deserve them, or they just get bored in the process.
Short-term gains do not typically result in long-term appeal. And so, people lose their desire to play until new content appears, but as evidenced by the news of the conference call, this formula is subject to diminishing returns over time. If players lose interest faster, then the gap between "new content" essentially becomes wider, even with the increased development time completely out of the picture (and things have been taking longer, ever since Wrath days).
As far as the here and now is concerned, I imagine Blizzard thought they'd have more time to pump out 4.2 (which should've been 4.1) because Cataclysm introduced so much new content, but we've already established why that didn't exactly pan out.
On top of all of this, they're simply fighting an old engine at this point. The game still looks pretty good, but it doesn't perform well behind the scenes. It isn't really set up to tell the story Blizzard wants to tell and you can see that in many of the cutscenes, or the way certain quest mechanics are handled. It's kind of like they're playing MacGuyver with the resources at hand, where they can sort of cobble things together to get the job done (say, creating a new boss mechanic), but what they come up with isn't always the ideal solution.
And it's clear they aren't about to move onto World of Warcraft 2, not with Titan coming out and Cataclysm just out the door, an expansion in which they have already changed so much of the world.
So where does Blizzard go from here? WoW remains a juggernaut in the world of video games, even at the expense of 600,000 subscriptions. Lots of people have wondered how its popularity will "die," and like most empires, the only real possibility seems to be "from within." Time is wearing on Warcraft. It's getting old and showing grey temples. The decisions being made in its continued development seem more akin to triage than any attempt at reversing the aging process. The banality of the gameplay, combined with the disinterest of its subscribers will likely result in a continued decline, finally allowing other MMOs to sweep in and pick up the slack. There is no one "WoW Killer," but together, high-quality up-and-comers like RIFT, Tera, Guild Wars 2, and perhaps The Old Republic will have a real chance at putting down the beast.
Of course, a lot of this is a combination of my own speculation and experienced judgment. Blizzard will try and save its sinking ship, and the beginning of their plan to do so can be found in the very same conference call which broke this harrowing news. Apparently, they plan on shifting to more paid expansion packs. As a headline, to consumers, that sounds like an absolutely terrible move. But you have to realize that these calls are generally geared towards investors, and therefore anything that sounds like "making more money" is probably going to go over quite well.
I don't know how they're going to get it done, though, since compelling new content is already taking relative ages to produce. Blizzard has always been a "it's done when it's done" sort of company, but is this scare finally forcing them into a policy of crapping out product at the expense of quality? Maybe they'll just attempt to squeeze even more of the life force out of the development team, making them work harder, longer hours to get new expansions out the door.
It may mean we get expansions sooner than in the past, perhaps at the rate of "one per year" that they intended to stick to way back when (but evidently never have). That could be a good thing, if we end up getting the same amount of content as we are used to at a faster pace. And it could be a very bad thing if stuff intended for "free" content patches ends up being repackaged into said "paid" expansions. It's the sort of "taint" Blizzard's business partner, Activision, is often accused of and I can already smell it from here.
disinterest
mike morhaime
subscription numbers
What's Your Ideal Item Shop?
For the Hoard 19: The Purring Winterspring Cub
I honestly think that Activision is making way more calls on how to run the company than Blizzard does. Kotick is a huge fan of squeezing each ounce of money out of a IP. 3 Starcraft 2's, how many 'confirmed' expansions of WoW? 2 more?, Titan, Diablo3 + expansions.
Either way I don't see this game surviving through the end of next year with all the heavy hitters about to hit the market. Personally I will jumping the ship for KoToR or GuildWars 2. Maybe both since one is FREE to play. All I do in WoW as of late is PvP on my super over powered Resto Druid. If you are alliance and have BG'd against a Tauren Druid Cowsaysmoo, you know how OP they are cause I'm toppin them charts.
I'm one of those 600,000. I will not be coming back.
Amatera
I've already expressed my personal feelings on this blog, in this and other posts. No need to elaborate on this points, but I'm about to be one myself. Technically haven't canceled yet, but I'm on the verge, and haven't played in quite some time except for a day or two after 4.1 came out to complete that content.
If my guild isn't capable of raiding in 4.2, and they haven't been for some time now, then I think I'm going to finally unsub.
Mordil
With recent irl / guild turmoil, I'm thinking of splitting too. They're the last shred of hope I have for raiding because all the rest of the guilds on my server are super h@rdc0rx, and everyone is afraid of PuGging.
I've become so bored…
Even though they said they changed ZA/ZG, a lot of the fights are still the same mechanics. That, and only about 10% of the groups I get in are able to actually down anything. I'm starving for my gear to drop – which won't.
All in all, I may just switch to BSGO / Vindictus as my go-to games when I'm not busy. BioWare has my guaranteed money support when the game comes out (whenever that is in 2012)
Vayder
sadly its coming to that point for myself as well. ive been a loyal players since beta. thats about 7+ years of playing the same game. Cata is by far the worst expac, its not seemless, its overly glitchy and well the story for this expac is not engaging. its quite boring actually. after we killed the LK there really wasnt much else story whys. yes there are alot of loose ends, but those could easily be finished off in novels. honestly i believe the warcraft universe would be much better if it went back to its roots. RTS. and believe that Either Diablo or Starcraft would make good MMO's but i fear that blizz would just do the same thing they have done to wow…
Kershocker
Huh, I'm NOT one of those 600,000.
I highly doubt I'm quitting any time soon, paying $15 is definitely worth the good times I have while playing with my friends.
According to Mike Morhaime, 11.4M was the amount of active Subs WoW had on back on March.
Remember what happened back on March? Rift was released. Several people decided to check out Rift only to return back to WoW after a month.
Also, WoW usually loses a few subs before Major Content patches because most people have already cleared all the raid content that the current patch had to offer. Patch 4.1 implemented 2 new Heroic Dungeons that drop iLvl 353 loot. T11 Raid Loot is iLvl 359, so people who left because they had already cleared all the raid content really didn't have a reason to come back.
People will come back for 4.2, WoW is not dying any time soon.
Nextgener
Sounds like just about everyone here is finally feeling the overwhelm. Little news flash though:
It never lasts. (you think it will, but it won't)
This is honestly oooold news. It's bound to happen at any MMO's given lifespan. It's the basic of any financial (or stock) market. Wow is an Economy, and People are creatures of change, and can't Always be tied down to one spot at a time. Why do you think 75% of marriages fail?
Wow, will always be Wow throughout the year's. Nothing will change that, and it's not going anywhere fast, no matter how many people want to delude themselves to that. In time, say, 10 or so year's, it will end like any reasonable MMO. But this isn't the sign of the end of all things.
All it's a sign of is how many people are truly still into the dedication of Wow. It's also a Good sign that shows people are settling into the game, and who's on the side of Dedication. Before you jump to conclusions, you have to ask yourself the big questions.
How many casuals do you think wouldn't stick around after the casual spring of LK? How many people have lived 3 expansions and killed raid bosses over again and again and again? How many people have gotten into Other MMO's? How many people have gotten into other Games at all? How many people have developed lives Outside of the game?
An MMO is a People's game. People will Always shift. A Bad move on blizzards end is too jump on this and make it seem like an issue. They just need to focus on what there doing now and continue with it, as it has Worked.
In time, the numbers will settle, and stay steady. That, will be the true numbers of wow. There will be spikes, both up and down, until the end. Until then, the best thing people can do is 1 simple thing.
5+ years and I'm still kicking and probably will still be kicking in years to come. Here's the thing from my perspective. The mass of the complaints have to do with 'no new content' and 'nostalgia' trips. After 3+ years of stagnation, I've finally seen my guild grow. How does this all tie together? Well, my guild hasn't changed it's stance on being social and family friendly. As such, we have young teens and adults alike who are either leveling new alts or never got around to seeing the 'old school' stuff.
We have guildies that don't yet have Cata and one or two who don't even have Wrath yet. They ENJOY that content. So we've made a decision in guild: Once we get guildies to 60 and beyond, we'll run old content for snots and giggles. This does many things:
1) It keeps us focused on a common goal.
2) It gives the newer players and younger players a chance to see stuff and learn stuff they might not otherwise have seen.
3) It gives us older players a chance to teach the younger players who will eventually take our place and lead in their own right.
4) We, as older players, are passing on a valuable legacy both in game and out. This is probably the most IMPORTANT aspect of the game.
5) Once those 'lagging' players catch up expansion-wise, they'll be good to go and ready to roll.
Though IF (and imo, would be a DRAMATIC mistake) Blizzard decides to go the 'paid expansion' route with regards to what would otherwise be 'free-patched content, they could see a bad and even more dramatic shift in game subscriptions which would force many many players out.
I guess to those who are 'bored' or 'disillusioned' about the game, I'd suggest perhaps looking at things from a brand new PoV. It really does refresh one's sense of what WoW is meant to be, IMO.
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Home Press and Media UNITED WAY RACIAL EQUITY FUND PROVIDES MORE THAN $500,000 IN GRANTS TO LOCAL BIPOC-LEAD ORGANIZATIONS
UNITED WAY RACIAL EQUITY FUND PROVIDES MORE THAN $500,000 IN GRANTS TO LOCAL BIPOC-LEAD ORGANIZATIONS
Community-lead workgroup prioritized the lived experience of the community to administer the fund.
DETROIT, MI — February 3, 2022 — United Way for Southeastern Michigan, has announced the recipients of more than $570,000 in grant funding. The Racial Equity Fund is designed to help all people experience authentic inclusion and have equitable access to resources and opportunities. Thirteen organizations are receiving grants between $10,000 and $75,000 to focus on leadership, lifespan development, economics, and reaching equity in emerging areas.
The Racial Equity Fund provides financial support and technical assistance to Black, Indigenous and people of color (BIPOC)-led organizations through microgrants. It was designed by a diverse and inclusive workgroup of community members during the summer and fall of 2021. The objective is to empower those most harmed by systemic oppression to thrive and reach their full potential.
"Assuring our grantmaking and work as an organization reflects the communities, we serve is very import to me and us as an organization," said Tonya Adair, Chief People, Equity, and Inclusion Officer, United Way for Southeastern Michigan. "The process of dismantling the barriers that have stood in the way of inclusion can't happen overnight, but we are committed to empowering people to thrive and succeed."
The workgroup's scope was informed by the Centering Community Voice Blueprint – an effort to proactively incorporate lived experience into United Way's grantmaking process. Every aspect of the decision-making process prioritized the lived experience of the community.
Funded organizations will provide programs and projects that work toward eliminating racial disparities in pursuit of a more equitable and just community for everyone.
Members of the workgroup were chosen by United Way for Southeastern Michigan's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Team. Local organizations and community leaders with close ties to the community made the nine-week commitment to the discussion and selection process.
The funded organizations and a description of their proposed projects/efforts:
APIA Vote – They look to introduce programming to address a series of racial inequities observed within and surrounding the Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) community of Southeastern Michigan. They seek to address these inequities through a multifaceted youth leadership development program emphasizing learning about diversity, equity, and inclusion; workshop facilitation and education for community leaders and local businesses; and community engagement through a series of community dialogues and discussion tables.
Black Executive Director Alliance of Detroit (BEDAD) seeks to increase pathways of leadership development for Black Executive Directors in the Detroit nonprofit community. They seek to add a second and third cohort of Black Executive leaders working to ensure there is racial equity in the nonprofit sector. Their work seeks to further the interests of the Black nonprofit community by uplifting Detroit-based African American led nonprofit organizations whose aim is to achieve long-term holistic impact on minority youth in Southeastern Michigan.
Birth Detroit – Birth Detroit works to uplift and reclaim Black-led midwifery care, ensuring communities are healthier, stronger, and freer. By 2030 they envision: there has been a cultural shift in understanding Black midwifery as integral to our survival and celebrating Black birthing bodies and babies — and therefore celebrating all birthing bodies and babies.
Chaldean American Ladies of Charity dba United Community Family Services – Refugee women often have or wish to gain skills but need additional support to become self-reliant and advance economically. This program seeks to help refugee women overcome the multiple barriers to economic advancement and self-sufficiency.
Class Act Detroit – Their 'House-of-Hip-Hop,' changes the status-quo and allows youngsters from all walks of life to connect, heal, and grow under one entity – hip-hop. Their effort empowers adolescents to be their most authentic selves in a space encouraging them, is well-resourced, and is designed for their wellness.
Detroit Heals Detroit – They look to work through collective liberation for all residents in Detroit – making sure the communities' needs are heard. They want to help bring this about by taking a holistic approach to combating trauma and taking direct action to address social inequities and conditions impacting Black youth mental health.
Developing Kingdoms in Different Stages (KIDS) – Through their proposed program, they intend to address the racial inequities in our community: food insecurity, on-time high school graduation, poverty level, chronic absenteeism, and college/trade school entrance. Their activities will have a goal of combatting the number of children removed from their homes.
E-Community Outreach Services – The long-term impact of generational poverty has led to a scarcity mentality in the City of Pontiac, with little access to resources or a lack of support systems to help move residents to the next level. While there are existing resources available, the community does not have the support or ability to access them based on barriers in place from government agencies, larger organizations, etc.
Family Assistance for Renaissance Men – Family Assistance for Renaissance Men looks to reunite men with their children by reducing legal barriers such as revoked driver's licenses, traffic tickets, and child support bench warrants. These barriers also prevent them from earning a stable income and resuming payment on their child support arrearages. In collaboration with over two dozen judges from county and circuit courts in Southeast Michigan, incarceration will be prevented, and fathers will be instead enrolled into the FARM program.
Heritage Works – Heritage Works looks to address the unfair distribution of material and nonmaterial access and opportunities to human capital development. They propose short- and long-term youth outcomes and experiences to develop a trained, equity-minded leader- and workforce to impact the outcomes of BIPOC-led organizations in our region.
The Michigan Hispanic Collaborative – In the US with a population of more than 18%, Hispanics are the largest minority yet remain disproportionately underserved. Their model is one of college access and persistence, and ultimately economic empowerment. This is a distinctive niche in program service delivery for the Hispanic community and a focus area that has been overlooked for decades.
Turning Point – Turning Point looks to address racial inequity in domestic and sexual violence – taking on racial injustice in staffing, service provision, and systemic responses.
Pontiac Community Foundation – Their program looks to improve equity gaps in Pontiac. The Pontiac Community Foundation is dedicated to addressing the critical systemic issues within the Pontiac community through all its focus areas and programs. Through a collaborative approach, they convene, organize, and mobilize community leaders and citizens toward innovative and strategic solutions for our community, in addition to funding initiatives and providing fiduciary services to help build capacity and steward resources for a better Pontiac.
In addition to the original $500,00 designated for the fund, an additional $12,000 was raised to continue this important work beyond this initial funding cycle.
To learn more about United Way for Southeastern Michigan's Racial Equity Fund or other United Way initiatives, visit https://unitedwaysem.org/about-us/equity-and-inclusion/.
About United Way for Southeastern Michigan
United Way for Southeastern Michigan, a member of the United Way Worldwide network and an independently governed 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization, works to help households become stable and ensure children have the support they need to thrive. For more than 100 years, United Way has been a leader in creating positive, measurable, and sustainable change in communities throughout southeast Michigan. United Way works in partnership with donors, agencies, corporate and municipal partners to help families meet their basic needs of housing, food, health care and family finances, and ensure children start school ready to learn and graduate ready for life. To give, advocate, volunteer or learn more, visit UnitedWaySEM.org.


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[ January 29, 2023 ] the recent rally in Bitcoin may not be 'sustainable' Market Analysis
HomeBlockchainHow to prepare for the end of the bull run, Part 1: Timing – Cointelegraph Magazine
How to prepare for the end of the bull run, Part 1: Timing – Cointelegraph Magazine
September 3, 2021 CryptoExpert Blockchain
Bobby Lee "blames" his brother Charlie — the founder of Litecoin — for causing the 2017/2018 Bitcoin price crash.
He's joking of course. Sort of.
Charlie famously sold the last tranche of his Litecoin holdings in December 2017 for $350 each.
Bobby remembers seeing the news hit Twitter. "I was like, gosh, that probably marks the peak," he says.
"I said to him jokingly, like 'you just caused the end of the bull market'."
Of course, Charlie wasn't the real reason the bull market ended, but it was a stunning piece of market timing, given he sold the last of three tranches of LTC at almost the exact top. It was no fluke either, as Charlie had predicted in early December that a "multi-year bear market" with 90% drawdowns was imminent.
The question is whether ordinary crypto traders and hodlers can follow Charlie's lead and sell out at the next market peak, allowing them to buy back in and accumulate more at the bottom.
It's a difficult feat to pull off and most people are more likely to follow the footsteps of podcaster Peter McCormack, who famously got caught up in the hype of 2017 and watched his Bitcoin portfolio skyrocket to $1.2 million… and then plunge back to near zero after he was forced to sell his stash to pay the bills in the depths of crypto winter.
Some of the biggest brains in crypto have been working on this problem, from onchain analyst Willy Woo to David Puell of Puell Multiple fame and Decentrader's Filbfilb and Philip Swift. Around 2018, they began devising metrics and indicators based on historical patterns to help determine when the peaks and troughs will be approaching.
There is a range of views as to whether timing the market is even possible. Bobby Lee swears by the halving price cycles, while Quantum Economics' Mati Greenspan and Wolf of All Streets' Scott Melker believe it's best to follow sensible rules on profit taking and portfolio construction that don't require you to predict events in advance.
The unpredictability of markets was in evident while writing this story, which I started writing in April and then had to put it on hold for four months after news out of China and Elon Musk's Twitter account nuked the markets and made the bull run seem like a distant memory.
Spoiler alert: All of the commentators interviewed agree that you should try and take profits on the way up. I was lucky enough to heed their advice literally hours before the big crash in May.
Every crypto bull run I've seen has been followed by a bear cycle. The market needs time to consolidate. That's just my experience from 7 years of watching this space.
How low and how long it will be is TBD. People need to be aware of this possibility and invest responsibly. https://t.co/ozcR11N68o
— Charlie Lee [LTC⚡] (@SatoshiLite) December 11, 2017
History lessons: Four more years
Bitcoin hasn't been around long enough to draw any firm conclusions from the historical record, but there's a widespread belief it moves in predictable cycles related to The Halving.
That's when the block reward Bitcoin miners receive is cut in half almost every fourth year, which reduces the issuance of new Bitcoin. The theory is that less Bitcoin equals higher prices, and during each halving so far, the price has bottomed out in the lead up and hit new all-time highs afterward.
Lee has been a proponent of the idea for almost a decade and presented the concept during a December 2013 talk at Stanford University.
"I'm a simple man," says Lee, author of the new book 'The Promise of Bitcoin'. "I can't predict the future but based on my gut intuition and based on my 10 years of experience on this, I think these price cycles mimic the block reward halving. It's a true economic lever that happens to Bitcoin, where the production rate goes down by half."
"In each case, the price movement upwards happens on a delayed basis compared to the block reward halving."
If the theory is correct — and it seems to have worked out so far — it only accounts for supply and not demand, and it's still not that helpful in determining when markets are set to peak. The first halving saw the price bottom a year before and peak a year after. The second and third halvings saw the price bottom and peak more than 500 days from the halving.
April's peak only marked an increase of three times over the previous high, meaning Lee thinks this cycle still has a long way to go.
"In my experience, bull markets don't end up nearly just three times the previous high, they easily go 10 times, 20 times, even 30 times. So, conservatively, if it goes 15 or 16 times the previous high, that takes us to $300,000."
Topper and popper
There are two things you can do with this information: You can try and sell out at, or just before, the peak prices. Or you can just hang on, with the expectation that prices will invariably rise even higher in four years' time.
The second option is a lot easier. It's particularly tricky to recognize the peak of the market because most people get carried away with euphoria at their stunning portfolio gains. Lee says rapidly inflating prices is actually the best indication that the top has arrived.
"If it doubles within a 24-hour period, then for sure that's the peak," he says.
Crypto trader Scott Melker, better known as The Wolf of All Streets, agrees. He began investing in Bitcoin in 2016 and had a front-row seat for the 2017 bull market and subsequent crash.
"I don't think that there was much sentiment among the masses that the music was going to come to an end anytime soon, to be frank," he says.
"Retail was piling in towards the top, believing that the Bitcoin price was going to $100,000. And obviously, it stopped at around $20K. I think most people failed to make any profit and rode the entire market all the way down through the crypto winter."
On-chain and technical indicators
The dramatic crash from the 2017 all-time high inspired numerous analysts to devise tools that could help predict the next one, explains Decentrader co-founder Filbfilb. They picked through the blockchain and market data over the past 12 years to determine the relationships between profits, participants, supply and the market's ups and downs.
"There are some really brilliant minds who came up with some fantastic on-chain derivative tools to allow us to try and understand how different market participants might be behaving," he says, adding:
"David Puell, for example, Phil Swift, Murad Mahmudov… we sort of came up with all this stuff in the depths of the bear market to make sure that we'd be able to call the next top."
Filbfilb says that crypto markets are almost unique in the amount of data that's available to chart, due to the radical transparency of the blockchain.
"Do we have all the tools to time the top? We've got probably the best amount of insight you could possibly have if you compare us to something like the market for gold, where it's just impossible to see that sort of data."
The MVRV Z-Score (LookIntoBitcoin.com)
Three of the best
There are about a million different tools available, but in Filbfilb's opinion two of the most important are the Puell Multiple which looks at how in profit miners are and the MVRV-Z score which looks at the current price relative to what each Bitcoin was purchased for. Both of these charts can be explored for free.
"The MVRV-Z score is very good because it tells you how in-profit the investors are," he explains.
The idea is that if the average price market participants bought Bitcoin when it was at $1000 and the price has now increased to $20,000, they are much more likely to cash out than a market in which most people bought Bitcoin at $15,000.
"If the MVRV-Z score goes up to the upper band, it means that all holders of Bitcoin are in supernormal profits versus the time when they bought the Bitcoin. So, that is something which would lead you to believe that people might be imminently thinking about taking profits and going and buying Lambos."
While this chart might stop working if we enter a period of hyperinflation, it has been backtested and, so far, it has correctly indicated the top within about a week. So, when your hairdresser or pharmacist starts doling out advice on which coins you should go all-in on, it might be time to start consulting this chart more frequently.
Filbfilb says another very valuable tool is the Puell Multiple, which shows how profitable miners are today versus how they've been for the last 365 days.
"If they all of a sudden went into this massive supernormal profit basis, then they're a business at the end of the day and they're likely to dump their coins," he says. "From an investor's point of view and from a supply point of view, both of those are very important."
The Puell Multiple (LookIntoBitcoin.com)
Hodlers don't sell cheap
Decentrader's other founder Philip Swift adds that the 1yr+ HODL wave chart is another useful indicator that's based on the market psychology of HODLers.
"It is an on-chain tool that shows the proportion of Bitcoin that has been HODLed for at least a year. There is a clear cyclical pattern where the 1yr HODL wave line has trended inversely to price over time. That is because in bear markets, HODLers accumulate and don't want to sell their BTC at cheap prices. So, the 1yr HODL rate rises."
"As we progress into bull markets, those HODL'ers want to realize their profits as price increases. They start to sell their Bitcoin which we can see by the Bitcoin leaving their wallets. This brings down the 1yr HODL level," he explains.
"The 1yr HODL level is currently sitting at 53% and is likely to be around 47% when we finally top out. So, we have a long way to go before the end of the cycle."
1yr HODL wave chart was briefly down on the site but is now up and running again
It continues to show that HODL'ers have no interest in selling at these levels. Expectation is for much higher prices
I don't think that HODL line will significantly drop until +$100k #Bitcoin 👀 pic.twitter.com/ucqGZX7590
— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) August 13, 2021
Most people probably won't have time to learn and understand all the other different tools, simply because there are so many. Technical analysis charts include two year MA multiplier, 200-week moving average heatmap, stock to flow model, Pi Cycle Top indicator, golden ratio multiplier, Bitcoin profitable days and BTC logarithmic growth curves.
On-chain indicators include RHODL waves, RHODL ratio, advanced NVT signal, relative unrealized profit/loss, Bitcoin network momentum, reserve risk, active addresses sentiment indicator and spent output profit ratio.
Decentrader has developed a meta-tool called Bitcoin KPI which assigns scores of out of 100 to each chart. "It's really difficult to go through 50 different charts to get you and then try and consolidate that into actually what's going on here," says Filbfilb, adding: "So, what we've tried to do is create like a high-level view.
"All of these things get pulled into one snapshot. And then you get a score. And you can see how far through the cycle you are. How overheated is the market," he says.
Decentrader's Bitcoin KPI tool.
Of course, there are a few provisos with these tools. Many are based on the premise that it is Bitcoin leading the entire crypto market up and down, which will probably be true, but it's within the bounds of possibility that Ethereum might overtake it as the market-leading cryptocurrency.
And, as the China mining FUD and Elon Musk's tweets demonstrated in April and May, these indicators won't save your stash from a black swan event that could cause the markets to crash and potentially ushering in a new bear market.
Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan points out that history sometimes rhymes but it does not predict the future.
"People like to get confused and say, 'Oh, well, just because this has happened X amount of times, then just because X has happened then Y will happen afterward.' It doesn't always mean anything."
How to prepare for the end of the bull run, Part 2: Sell or Hodl is out next week. Mati Greenspan, Filbfilb, Scott Melker and Bobby Lee give their advice on how one can trade the end of the bull run, and thoughts on whether four-year cycles are coming to an end as mainstream adoption takes off.
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the recent rally in Bitcoin may not be 'sustainable'
Katie Stockton expects a pullback in Bitcoin price ahead. She explained her "neutral" view on CNBC's "Squawk Box". Bitcoin has climbed roughly 40% since the start of 2023. Bitcoin has now surpassed the key $23,000 [...]