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Premier League Projections and New Expected Goals
It's that time of year. A couple months after I said I'd get this done, I'm publishing method.
By Michael Caley
on October 19, 2015 8:59 pm
Bryn Lennon/Getty Images
Once more into the breach. We're eight weeks in to the English Premier League season, and things are (still) moderately weird, with Chelsea nosediving and Liverpool and Tottenham trailing Leicester City and Crystal Palace. Can Chelsea recover? Are any of the newly-risen top four actual contenders for those positions? Is Tottenham in trouble?
To answer these questions, I am running projections. The method will be detailed in full, and nerds are welcome to skip down to the methodology section. Here's a quick version of what expected goals is, from my earlier discussion of the statistic:
Expected goals is a method for estimating the quality of chances that a football team creates or concedes in a match. This is the thing I like a lot about xG. It may take a lot of data crunching to create specific xG values, but the underlying idea makes football sense. How many good chances did a team create?
How many half-chances? Just how "good" were they? How many good chances did they concede, and so on? These are intuitive football questions. When you're following a match, you're watching for the creation of chances, getting excited when it appears a scoring chance might be conjured for your team or getting worried when the other team is building one. We all watch for something like "expected goals." Managers and players create tactics aimed at creating good chances and preventing them for their opponents.
The current method includes factors such as distance to goal, angle to goal, the type of pass that assisted the shot (cross / throughball / etc), the type of shot (header / foot / other body part), the type of play that leads to the shot (set play / counterattack / established possession) as well as a variety of other factors.
The Expected Goals Table, or, Things Look Good For Spurs
Despite a seventh place spot in the table, Tottenham's numbers look strong. This is in direct contrast to last season when Spurs scraped a fifth place finish despite consistently bad defensive indicators. With multiple defensive upgrades acquired through transfers or position chances, Tottenham have suddenly placed themselves among the Premier League's best defensive sides. And without any weakening of the team's chance creation.
The tables below show the teams with the best defensive and attacking expected goals statistics.
Spurs, Arsenal and City are the only teams in the top five in both tables, with Spurs top three in both. Certainly Arsenal and City have huge advantages in expected goals difference, and the gaps on the xGA table are not huge. But it's still cool.
What these tables show are the few teams separating themselves out at the top and bottom. Manchester City and Arsenal appear to be the class of the Premier League and it isn't particularly close. The teams from the Northeast bring up the bottom--while Newcastle's stats look utterly terrible, the Magpies have played the league's toughest schedule while Sunderland have faced relatively few challenging opponents. In context, they're both doing really bad.
Title and Top Four Race
At the beginning of the season, I had City and Chelsea effectively tied at the top. Things have changed. To get to 85 points, Chelsea would need to take 74 from their next 29, which would be a 97-point pace over a full season. That does not seem likely. Even just to get to 72 points would take a 80-point pace (61 points from 29 matches). Right now, Chelsea are legitimately in trouble. The other issue here is that Chelsea's current performance has just not been good. They're barely over 0.500 for expected goals ratio, the worst start by a defending champion in the top four leagues in the Opta era. The closest comparand is David Moyes' United. So... yikes.
But Manchester City aren't running away with it. Arsenal have been excellent this season and appear to be legitimate title contenders. I have the title race at about 60 percent Manchester City, 35 percent Arsenal and 5 percent Manchester United. (Those are rounded up, and there is a maybe 2 percent chance of someone from the field, including Chelsea, ending up at the top.)
In the top four race, there is likewise a big mess below the top two. Chelsea's deserving title-winning season last year and high payroll keep them afloat, but as I said it's no sure thing anymore. Manchester United, despite a series of big-money signings, still have yet to achieve a consistently high level of play and show themselves to be of the same quality as the top two. While Liverpool could improve with a new manager, so far the numbers are merely good. With Spurs making a big run there is not much room for Southampton or West Ham to join the top four race, but they're not out of it yet.
At the bottom, I don't even know if it's worth making a graphic. I have eight clubs with a chance of relegation of 10 percent or higher. This is basically the projections throwing up their hands and saying "pick 'em." Sunderland are in really bad shape but beyond that, your guess is as good as mine.
EPL Projections Table
%Title
%Top4
5th-6th
%Rel
Manchester City 25.6 5.9 6.5 82.6 +50 59% 99% 1% 0%
Arsenal 24.2 7.1 6.7 79.6 +41 35% 97% 2% 0%
Manchester United 20.2 8.6 9.2 69.1 +22 4% 70% 20% 0%
Chelsea 18.7 9.0 10.3 65.0 +18 1% 49% 30% 0%
Liverpool 16.8 12.0 9.2 62.4 +12 1% 34% 33% 0%
Tottenham Hotspur 15.8 12.7 9.5 60.1 +13 0% 24% 32% 1%
West Ham United 15.0 9.8 13.2 54.7 +5 0% 9% 20% 1%
Southampton 13.8 11.8 12.4 53.3 +4 0% 6% 17% 1%
Crystal Palace 14.3 8.1 15.6 51.0 -3 0% 3% 11% 2%
Leicester City 13.1 11.4 13.5 50.8 -6 0% 3% 10% 2%
Everton 12.7 12.2 13.1 50.4 -2 0% 3% 10% 3%
Swansea City 11.6 12.4 14.0 47.2 -6 0% 1% 5% 7%
Stoke City 11.3 11.1 15.5 45.2 -9 0% 1% 3% 11%
Watford 10.3 12.0 15.7 42.8 -14 0% 0% 2% 17%
West Bromwich Albion 10.3 10.0 17.7 40.9 -18 0% 0% 1% 25%
Newcastle United 9.6 11.0 17.4 39.8 -14 0% 0% 1% 29%
Norwich City 9.5 10.1 18.4 38.5 -23 0% 0% 0% 36%
Bournemouth 9.2 9.6 19.2 37.2 -22 0% 0% 0% 43%
Aston Villa 9.0 9.5 19.5 36.6 -16 0% 0% 0% 45%
Sunderland 6.5 10.6 20.9 30.1 -30 0% 0% 0% 79%
So those are the projections. It's time for method. Let's go.
New Expected Goals and Projection Method
I published a method last year which is quite similar, but which I believe I've also improved significantly. The main way I try to improve the method is watching lots of football and then talking to people about it. The more time I watch chances being created and prevented, and the better I get at listening to smart people talk about this stuff, the more effectively I can model it, I think.
So, my touchstone throughout the (extended) process of developing this method was "does this make football sense?" I am by training something of a skeptic of regression methods. It is very easy to find "significant" effects when you do regression willy-nilly, but that doesn't mean that what you've found is actually a real finding about football. While obviously I had to do lots of regression to create this system, I tried to make sure I was only running regressions when I understood why and how the factors involved related to the creation of better and worse chances in a football match. This has probably let to some infelicities in the math, but I hope it also means that the logic of the system can be communicated reasonably clearly.
My goal was to create as few formulas as possible, but to divide chances up and create different formulas if it seemed that, for football reasons, these were distinctly different types of chances. I ended up with six shot types and six equations. They are these:
Shots from direct free kicks
Shots following a dribble of the keeper
Headed shots assisted by crosses
Headed shots not assisted by crosses
Non-headed shots assisted by crosses
Non-headed shots not assisted by crosses (or, you know, "regular" shots.)
(I should note here that while I'm saying "shots" this also includes what Opta considers "chances missed", where what should have been a shot attempt was blown by the attacking player and no shot was recorded. So I have those as well.)
The logic in breaking them up is that each one has a different "curve," a different relationship between the likelihood of scoring a goal and the distance and angle from the goal. For shots assisted by crosses, for instance, the angle off goal is not as important as it is for other shots. It's just hard to strike a crossed ball cleanly, whether you're directly in front of goal or well off at an angle, and when you do manage to make good contact you have a reasonably good chance of beating the keeper regardless. Angle still matters, but it doesn't matter as much. Similarly, headed shots have distinctly different curves for distance based on whether they're assisted by a cross. It's much easier to knock home a rebound with your head from four yards out than to score off a cross. But get to 12 yards out and finding the power in just your neck muscles to beat the keeper is not so easy, whereas if it's a crossed ball you can use the natural momentum of the ball.
Then within these six categories I use a variety of factors.
Angle and Distance
This is of course the beating heart of every expected goals system. It's easier to score when you're closer to goal, and it's easier to score from straight on to goal than from wide. But modeling these effects is kind of maddening.
Let me show you the bane of my existence. Well, a bane. Let's say a thing that has, perhaps through my own fault, cost me a lot of time in my life the last two or three years. This is a chart showing the likelihood of a (non-headed, not assisted by a cross) shot being scored based on location.
The rate at which shots are converted is clearly related to two factors. First the distance from goal, and second the angle from goal. Being ten yards from goal at a 45 degree angle is much, much worse than being ten yards out and straight on. But there's a bunch of funkiness here. The dark red zone extends out from goal only in the center. The wide areas of the six-yard box become very low value very quickly. But there are reasonably good quality shots to be had from the wide areas of the danger zone, in the six-yard box extended, that aren't directly on to goal.
I have tried many, many ways to create a single formula to capture this shape. I have decided it can't be done in any simple manner. The problem is that shot selection plays a big role. Players in the wide areas of the 18-yard-box will typically only decide to shoot if better options aren't available. But if you get on the end of a chance in the 6-yard-box, even if it's not the greatest, usually you will shoot. Further, if you're at a very difficult angle, you're unlikely to attempt a shot unless you're undefended or the keeper has gotten off their line. So player decision making is a major third factor, along with distance and angle. The equation becomes then exceptionally messy.
So instead of creating a single term for distance, my formula includes up to five. They are the distance to goal, the inverse of distance to goal, the relative angle to goal and its inverse, and the inverse of the product of the angle and the distance.
To calculate relative angle to goal, I use compare the angle to goal of the shot to the angle from straight on. So if a player is in a central position, between the goalposts, the angle is 1. If a player is wide of the posts, I take the angle from their location to the nearest post. For instance, if a player is at a 45 degree angle to the nearest post, the relative angle is 0.5.
I found that different combinations of distance and angle were needed for each of the six different categories. That's why I broke them up.
Then we add more factors. It gets complicated, of course, but I focused as I added factors on the underlying football reality being modeled. The biggest problem that all expected goals systems based on Opta have is the lack of defender positioning data. It is obviously the case that not being defended is better than being defended. But we don't know, from the data, whether that's the case. So most of the following factors are attempts to model defender location from secondary markers.
How The Shot Was Assisted
In the case of shot-assists, the big thing we can model is "defender elimination." That is, can we assume or at least reasonably propose that the pass has removed opposition defenders from the play and made the following scoring chance easier?
I've discussed elsewhere two of the best kinds of assists: throughballs and danger zone passes. I've added a third additional feature here which are shots following throughball second assists. If a player is put through with a defense-splitting pass and then lays off to a teammate, that's usually a huge chance. Just as throughball puts a player behind the defense and eliminates nearly all the opposition defenders, a throughball second assist then almost always isolates a player against the keeper. Finish your runs, boys and girls.
To model "danger zone passing" I've used a continuous system. This means, the better an attacking position you're in, the more value you add to the xG of the next shot by passing. Think of this as a "tiki-taka" factor. If a player is in a good attacking position, the defense should be on him. If he can complete a pass from there, it will eliminate at least those defenders who were focused on him. Making the next pass is not necessarily a good idea—losing the ball from a position where you could have made a quality attempt on goal is bad—but when that extra pass can be completed, it typically leads to better chances. (Barcelona unsurprisingly dominates the best expected goals / shot table with all five of the best seasons in the last five years.)
The following two graphics show the odds of a shot being scored based on the location of the assist pass. There is a large effect for crosses as well as for regular passes.
Then there are two more kinds of passes included. The first is the cutback. This is a negative factor. That might surprise you. This does not mean that cutbacks are bad. Far from it. Shots assisted by cutbacks are all open-play shots taken with the feet from the danger zone, the area in the center of the 18-yard-box from which most goals are scored. That's a great thing! You start at a very high level with cutback assists.
But in terms of defender elimination, they're not ideal. The concept of a cutback is to get an attacker free on the baseline, draw the defense deep, and then she plays it back to a teammate between the lines, in the danger zone. So even if the best-case scenario, we expect there to be multiple defenders, as well as the keeper, between the shooter and the goal. And in many cases, the player who receives the cutback won't be free between the lines but will be defended as well.
The cutback factor is not massively negative. But it is real, and I think this makes sense. You would rather get a ball by the goal-mouth with a defender-eliminating throughball or interior pass, but that's incredibly hard to do. Against a set defense, a cutback is far more efficient than a cross, even if it does not usually create the very biggest chances.
The final kind of pass is yet another Barcelona specialty. This is the pass "across the face" of goal, where a player in a wide area plays a square ball through the middle of the box. These are very difficult passes to play, since they are quite easy to defend—you expect a central defender to be protecting precisely this zone when the ball is in a wider area—which means they can usually only be completed when the defense is not properly organized. So a completion across the face of goal indicates that the defense has been broken down, and as such that defenders have been eliminated at some point.
(As I noted above, shots from cross assists are so different, and so much worse than shots assisted by regular passes, that I separated them to a different bucket entirely. With crosses the issue is not defender elimination but rather just the difficulty of striking a crossed ball.)
Type of Attacking Play
I distinguish between several types of play, extrapolated from the underlying data. These are (1) play from a corner kick, (2) play from a free kick, (3) counterattacks and fast breaks, (4) established attacking zone possession and (5) regular open play.
Corner kicks are the most defended actions in football. Even the most aggressive teams station seven or eight players deep in their own box. As such there is a notable negative effect on xG from corner kicks. Set plays are well-defended, but not as easy to stop as a corner kick.
The best kind of attacking play, for xG, is the counterattack or fast break. When you can get into the open field at speed, you can attack a defense that is out of position and scrambling. I use two markers for this type of play. The first is the "fast break" as marked by Opta coders. They know when a team is breaking down the field at speed and they code play as such. That's very useful! But Opta is very strict in its definition of a "fast break"—Heung-Min Son's goal against Crystal Palace was not coded as a fast break despite it clearly being a counterattacking action—so I created a secondary marker of a counterattack. These are actions that begin with an open play turnover of possession, in which the attacking team moves steadily forward to goal without recirculating the ball. I found that once I took counterattacks and fast breaks into consideration, the raw "speed of attack" became no longer a significant factor.
This is the logic, I think. We don't know how fast a team needs to move to stay ahead of the defense. If the defense is reasonably well-positioned to get back into its shape, you may need to move the ball vertically very quickly, say 6-8 yards per second. But if the defense is far out of position, an attack of 4-5 yards per second will be just as effective. The better marker is whether the defensive team is able to prevent steady forward movement to goal, not the exact speed of the attacking move.
Finally, I found that established attacking zone possession is a small positive factor. I defined this as an attack that involves at least five completed passes in the attacking half without the ball being forced back into the defensive zone. A move that dominates space like this tends to lead to better chances than other open play attacks.
Other Indicators of Defensive Pressure
There are two really big indicators that Opta provides. The first is the "big chance" which is defined as a scoring chance the player should be expected to score. This is an overbid—about 40 percent of open play big chances are scored—but these are chances where the defense has been beaten. That a chance is marked as "big" tells us precisely that defensive pressure is close to nil and a player has a great opportunity to score.
The other big indicator is the defensive error. If a shot is attempted shortly following a "defensive error" it is again highly likely to be scored. When defenders screw up and gift the ball to an attacker in a good area (Opta is very strict in what it calls a "defensive error" and this needs to be a pretty huge blunder), it is unusual that they can snap back into place and properly challenge the shot.
In both of these cases, I'm a little bit skeptical of the size of the effect. I think Opta coders do amazing work, and I know that their decisions are always double-checked as well. But it's hard for me to believe that there would be zero outcome bias, that a shot being scored wouldn't make the preceding chance look bigger, or the preceding defensive mistake look worse. So I have chosen to knock down the regression value given to both of these factors slightly.
The next largest factor here is dribbling. A completed dribble, by definition, removes from play the defender who was on the ball. A player who can create space with a dribble has a notably better chance of scoring. I found further than the distance toward goal that a player runs with the ball—the distance between where the player picked up the ball and the location of the shot—also correlates with goal-scoring. If you can carry the ball toward goal, it is likely that either the defense isn't properly set or that you are beating some defenders.
I also include a rebound effect. When a shot is saved but not controlled, or when a shot hits the crossbar, the attacking player who jumps on the ball typically has a better chance of scoring. That's pretty straight forward. (To avoid double-counting chances from the same move, I only give team credit for the highest-xG chance in a single move. So if there are a bunch of rebound attempts in a row, the team battering the goal won't get credit for more than one expected goal.)
Finally, there is game state. I found game state to be significant only for regular shots, while accounting for other factors cleared out game state effects among headers, freekicks and shots assisted by crosses. With regular shots there is still a very small effect, which I believe reflects still unaccounted-for slight differences in defensive pressure applied by teams trailing or leading a match.
Player Finishing Skill
Here's a big change. Football analysts have been arguing for a while that conversion rates are massively variable. Anyone who has watched Alexis Sanchez and Sergio Aguero wend through slumps and back into form this season knows that you can't predict how well a player will take on his next shot based on what he did with the previous ten or so. (This is also why I expect Harry Kane to get off the schneid sooner rather than later.)
At the same time, the idea that Manchester City fans shouldn't care if Aguero or Jesus Navas gets on the end of a chance is equally ludicrous. The problem, statistically, is not that "there is no such thing as finishing skill" but rather a problem of sample size. Last season in the NHL, Alexander Ovechkin attempted 795 shots. In the NBA, Stephen Curry tossed up 1341. The comparison to football is instructive. Over the last six years, combined, the only player who has attempted over 1000 non-penalty shots in league play (in the big five leagues) is Cristiano Ronaldo. Lionel Messi has attempted 992, and next are Antonio Di Natale and Zlatan around 750 shots. So we just have far, far fewer shots on which to evaluate player finishing skill.
But with a six-year sample, I think we can begin to estimate player skill. For each player with at least 100 shot attempts, I split their shots into two equally-sized random samples a bunch of times. Then I checked the correlation between the conversion rate in the first random sample and that in the second. I found there was basically no correlation in finishing rate on split samples of 50-100 shots, but once you get to the few players well over 250 shots, there is a real effect.
We are of course not yet to the level we want to be. I'm looking for a correlation of about 0.7. To make a player adjustment, then, I need to make an assumption that the correlation will continue to improve as the number of players in the sample increases. I chose to go with this assumption for two reasons.
First, player finishing skill is real. This is both something that's just kind of obviously true, and it's something that I've shown elsewhere by expanding the sample by bucketing players together. I want to account for real football things if I can.
Second, player finishing skill is the primary driver of the "super team effect" in expected goals. Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich all outperform typical versions of expected goals by large margins. But if I include a player finishing adjustment, most of that outperformance disappears. I have shown that players who finish chances brilliantly for these superclubs also finish their chances at high rates on other teams. So these top sides tend to finish their chances for the simple reason that they have collected players who nearly all, individually, shoot well. This is, I think, good prima facie evidence that the shooting skill adjustment captures something real.
I regress player finishing skill by adding a "weight" of 75 goals and 75 expected goals to a player's tally. If the player still shows up as a top finisher will all that regression weight added on, they're typically really good. (Lionel Messi and Yaya Toure show up as the world's best, with Jesus Navas among the very worst, so I'm pretty happy with how that turned out. Watch for the full article on this coming later this week.) Each chance is then adjusted based on the finishing skill of the player attempting it.
League Effects
These sort of make me sad, but I haven't figured out a solution. Shots in the Bundesliga are just scored more. Headed shots in the English Premier league become goals much more rarely than they do in La Liga. There appear to be real differences in play and in shot selection between the leagues that can't be fully accounted for in expected goals without such adjustments.
The Formulas
Here they are. In all cases I used a logistic regression, which produces a formula of the type e ^ -(formula) / (1 + e ^ -(formula)). This produces a graph that looks like this:
(Thanks to UCLA for the image.) This graph has asymptotes at 0 and 1, just as the odds of a shot being scored are never exactly 0 and never perfectly 1. In between it increases as a roughly exponential rate, which tends to be a good model for the relationship of distance and angle to expected goals.
For each of the following I list the "formula" section of the logistic equation. The full logistic equation is then multiplied by the player adjustment, with regression at the ends to prevent shots from registering above 1 or below 0.
Regular Shots: (-3.19 - 0.095 * distance + 3.18 * inverse_distance + 1.88 * relative_angle + 0.24 * inverse_angle - 2.09 * inverse_dist*angle + 0.45 * throughball_assist + 0.64 * throughball_2nd_assist + 0.31 * assist_across_face - 0.15 * cutback_assist + 2.18 * inverse_assist_distance + 0.12 * assist_angle + 0.23 * fast_break + 0.18 * counterattack + 0.09 * established_possession - 0.18 * following_corner + 1.2 * big_chance + 1.1 * following_error + 0.39 * following_dribble + 0.14 * dribble_distance + 0.37 * rebound + 0.03 * game_state + 0.07 * Bundesliga - 0.1 * EPL - 0.09 * LaLiga - 0.07 * SerieA)
One further note on cutbacks. There is an interaction effect between "assist distance" and cutbacks Since cutbacks are typically from areas close to goal, most of the negative cutback effect is typically canceled out by the positive effect of the pass location. I define "dribble_distance" as the percentage of the distance to goal that the player covered while running with the ball before attempting a shot. "Assist distance" and "assist angle" are the distance and relative angle to goal from the location where the assist pass was played, calculated just as for shot attempt locations.
I excluded headed passes from the "assist distance" / "assist angle" calculation because, well, headed passes don't really eliminate defenders. They just sort of go over some of them.
The positive value of "inverse angle" helps to account for the higher-than-expected conversion rate of shots attempted from very tight angles. Since these are usually attempted only when the defense is not prepared, they are converted much more often than a simple distance * angle method can account for. That's why I've got so many distance and angle factors here.
Headed Shots Assisted by Crosses: (-2.88 - 0.21 * distance + 2.13 * relative_angle + 4.31 * inverse_assist_distance + 0.46 * assist_angle + 0.2 * fastbreak + 0.11 * counterattack + 0.12 * set_play - 0.24 * corner - 0.18 * otherbodypart + 1.2 * big_chance + 1.1 * following_error + 0.18 * EPL + 0.15 * LaLiga)
Occasionally a player will try to chest a cross into goal. This isn't easy to do, and is basically impossible to do with any power. So there's a small negative effect there. It's small because you basically only would ever try it when you're in a pretty good position to pull it off.
You can see how the much larger "distance" factor here means that shots assisted by crosses are only quality attempts from very close to goal. I don't honestly know what's going on with the La Liga crosses effect. I debated including it at all. It kind of goes against my stated theories. But it's so persistent I think it must be real. It could be an artefact of the coding of chances? I don't know.
Non-Headed Shots Assisted by Crosses: (-2.8 - 0.11 * distance + 3.52 * inverse_distance + 1.14 * angle + 0.14 * assist_across_face + 6.94 * inverse_assist_distance + 0.59 * assist_angle -0.12 * corner + 0.24 *fastbreak + 0.11 * counterattack + 1.25 * big_chance + 1.1 * following_error - 0.2 * EPL)
The much smaller "angle" adjustment here reflects how the angle to goal matters much less with footed shots assisted by crosses than with other shots. If you can get a good strike on the ball, you can beat the keeper from angle almost as easily as from straight on.
Headed Shots Not Assisted by Crosses: (-3.85 - 0.1 * distance + 2.56 * inverse_distance + 1.94 * relative_angle + 0.51 * throughball_assist + 0.44 * fastbreak + 0.26 * counterattack + 0.7 * rebound + 0.44 * established_possession + 1.14 * otherbodypart + 1.3 * big_chance + 1.1 * following_error - 0.29 * EPL - 0.24 * LaLiga - 0.26 * SerieA)
There are huge type-of-play effects on headed shots not assisted by crosses. It's typically only when the defense is out of position that these are reasonably good chances. So counterattacking or playing a rebound or getting free for a weird little interior pass after a long possession are big effects.
Shots from Direct Free Kicks: (-3.84 - 0.1 * distance + 98.7 * inverse_distance + 3.54 * inverse_angle - 91.1 * inverse_distance*angle)
Free kicks are weird. The angle of the attempt matters, but it's not necessarily bad to be at an angle. This method gives positive and negative angle effects based on location on the pitch, which is the best I can do right now for modeling these.
Shots Following a Dribble of the Keeper: (-0.61 - 0.09 * distance + 7.4 * inverse_distance + 1.04 * angle - 3.2 * inverse_distance*angle + 1.1 * big_chance + 0.67 * following_error)
I separate out shots following a keeper dribble because the defensive situation is known. There isn't a keeper. There may be some outfielders trying to block the shot, but it's just a totally different situation and thus a different curve than any other kind of shot.
Those are the formulas. Enjoy.
Projection Method
I run a Monte Carlo simulation, "playing" every remaining match in the season a million times and collating the results. I project matches using a random sample from bi-variate poisson for goals, as suggested by Dimitris Karlis and Ioannis Nitzoufras. (Karlis and Nitzoufras, "Analysis of sports data by using bivariate Poisson models," The Statistician 52 (2003), 381-393.)
For team quality, I use a combination of this season expected goals, last season expected goals and team payroll. Payroll functions as my "regression to the mean" factor. We don't expect every EPL team to regress to the same mean, but we expect richer clubs to do better because in fact that's precisely what they do.
I combine the factors this way. I found that year-to-year it's easier to predict goals scored than goals conceded, no matter what method I use. Tactical adjustments and player relationships can have huge effects on goals conceded, and these can change a lot year to year. (Any Spurs fan can see how the knock-on effects of just one good CM, and perhaps benching one or two bad CMs, have changed this club's defense entirely.) So I weight the current season's xGA more heavily than the current season's xG to account for this difficult.
With xG I start with an 0.8 weight on last year's xG and an 0.2 weight on payroll, and I increase the weight on this season's xG by 0.03 per week until the weight on last year's xG has been entirely replaced. With xGA I start with a weight of 0.7 on last year's xGA and 0.3 on payroll, but I increase the weight on this season's xGA by 0.045 per week instead of 0.03, and I continue to increase until I get to a ratio of 0.8 for this season's expected goals and 0.2 for payroll.
So right now after nine weeks, for the attacking rating, we have 0.27 for this season, 0.53 for last season and 0.2 for payroll. For the defensive rating it's 0.4 for this season, 0.35 for last season and 0.25 for payroll.
Testing Expected Goals
So does this work? I ran a bunch of tests and I can proudly say "pretty much."
I produced the expected goals system using data from the big five leagues (England, Spain, Germany, Italy, France) from 2010-2011 through 2013-2014. Then I tested it on 2014-2015. I got a root mean squared error of 0.258 on the in-sample data and also 0.258 in the out-sample data. Not bad! A study by Michael Bertin found a RMSE of 0.294 using a single-value xG. Martin Eastwood built a (very cool) xG model using support vector machines and got an RMSE of 0.265. Obviously what level of complication is worth the improvement is error rate is a judgment call. But I'm happy with this.
Then i wanted to test its predictivity. Studies of this sort have already been run variously, by myself (here and here), by Sander of 11tegen11 (here and here) and by Colin Trainor (here). Most of these studies have worked within seasons, and I wanted to test also how well expected goals predicts future performance between seasons. After all, with nine weeks of the season complete, we don't assume that Chelsea will remain mid-table—we assume they'll improve because we know these same players were very, very good together next year. But I did not want to just start in 2010-2011 and move forward, because that would privilege those few games that happened to start that season.
So I thought, what I start everywhere. I made for each club a list of all their matches in the last five seasons, ordered chronologically. Then I tested, starting at any match, how well performance in that match predicted performance in the next 20 matches, and I tested performance in that match and the next one combined against the following 20, that match and the next two against the following 20, and so on. The first thing I found is that expected goals does the best at predicting future goal difference and future points totals.
Expected goals ratio starts better early and remains the best predictive tool as the sample increase. One notable point here is how the pink "points" line and the yellow "goals ratio" line start slowly, but after about 12-15 matches goals ratio does about as well as any of the other statistics, bar expected goals, of projecting future performance. Total shots ratio is reasonably predictive early on, but drops off even below just points as the season continues.
But it differs league to league. Total shots ratio in particular "works" early on in the EPL, but not in the other big three leagues.
(You can click of the image to see the very large full image.)
As you can see, the strongest effects are seen in La Liga and the EPL. In the Bundesliga, expected goals is best through about two-thirds of a season, but goal difference then catches up. In Serie A shots on target are highly useful, though again expected goals does better overall.
Overall, if you want to apply one statistic league to league for predictive use, expected goals is definitely the one to use. I'm pretty happy with this.
We're at nearly 6000 words so I'd hope so.
Here's the problem. I cited the top four leagues. But I also have Ligue 1. And in the French league, the graph is an ugly mess.
Not only do we see expected goals just in a big messy scrum with all the others, but more importantly we never get an R-squared much over 0.4. Basically, none of the shot statistics really "work" in Ligue 1. While the sample is smaller, and I haven't done anything like conclusive work on this, I'm finding similarly worrisome graphs for the Eredivisie and MLS. It's my hypothesis right now that at lower levels of football, expected goals and the shot statistics are not the way forward.
So this gives me the direction for future research. I won't stop working with shots, and I won't stop writing about shots. I still think these are highly useful statistics, at least for the big four leagues and for top teams. There's no question that at the individual and team level, shots and expected goals have a lot of value. And I certainly will keep doing expected goals maps. I love expected goals maps. They're fun.
But I think we can see that just as "Total Shots Ratio" seems to reach the limit of its utility when it leaves the EPL, so likewise we can see that Expected Goals works mostly at the highest level. This suggests to me that other statistics are needed not only in the lower leagues but also in the EPL and elsewhere. We want our statistics to "work" at as many levels as possible, and probably the ones that work more universally will also be more effective individually.
I am working on team statistics involving more events that just shots, as well as player statistics using those components. I'm not there yet, since this took kind of forever, but that's the direction I am now headed.
All data provided by Opta.


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In the Know: Moratorium on some Collier development? And what are you saying?
As the county tackles eastern Collier development, one of the ideas floated during a planning commission meeting was a pause or moratorium on some new construction requests in part of that region.
The move would be similar to initiatives by the Naples City Council, which paused the processing of some zoning-related applications earlier this year while it reviews its building height rules and other measures.
In Collier's case, this could, for example, allow for independent studies to protect taxpayers that had been urged by county advisors for the mammoth so-called Rural Lands Stewardship Area but never fully done. Public records show intentions for 300,000 residents and 100,000 homes.
The planning board is scheduled to consider amendments related to the 185,000-acre RLSA in its 9 a.m. Thursday public hearing as part of a follow-up to its Sept. 3 confab. The county commission will eventually get its shot at them and other issues, too. Look for planned coverage of this week's expected day-long session by my colleague Patrick Riley.
"The more you defer this to studies and analysis, the more of these acres are being converted as we speak. We've got one application after the other that's going to be coming through the planning commission," County Attorney Jeff Klatzkow said. "Because if you haven't noticed, Collier County is going through a boom period right now as people are moving down here. We can talk about it and talk about it and talk about it. But unless something actually gets done, by the time everybody is happy with what you have, you'll have nothing to left to regulate."
More:In the Know: Will 300,000 more residents cost Collier taxpayers $3.8 billion? And let's help Addicted to Fitness find a new home
And:In the Know: Groundwork for explosive development; and two polar opposites, Ferrari and Ollie's, prepare to open
A county legal consultant had previously indicated that because amendments may cause a "potential increase (in) development, a comprehensive land use analysis must be conducted. And included in that analysis, there should be an urban sprawl analysis to demonstrate that the proposed development does not result in sprawling land use pattern," said April Olson, senior environmental planning specialist for the Conservancy of Southwest Florida. "These analyses are very important to first of all understand what are the taxpayers going to be on the hook for."
That hook could be as high as $3.8 billion over a 20-year span if sprawl is allowed as part of the RLSA, said planning commission chairman Edwin "Ned" Fryer, quoting a Smart Growth America study that's been disputed and disregarded by some Collier decision-makers and pro-development forces.
Public records show a proposed smaller scale third-party analysis as part of the county's May 2019 RLSA study White Paper that those same decision-makers and other forces so often refer to in making their points, but that idea had been abandoned by later in the year.
"What we're trying to do is to continue moving this process forward and not go backward," said Collier Growth Management Department head Thaddeus L. Cohen. "It's important to keep the momentum going."
More:In the Know: Crazy buying surge as home prices rapidly climb in Collier; and latest on Tiger Woods venture
And:In the Know: Latest on downtown demolition and Old Naples Hotel
The sentiment is shared by Barron Collier Companies and related landowners and entities that plan to make their case to kick off Thursday's engagement.
"I think it would be safe to say that we've made decisions based on the existing program today because that's all we had is what the existing program is, and I think it would be safe to say we probably have vested rights under that program," said Tom Jones, vice president at Barron Collier Companies.
Reducing taxpayer impact
Working toward preventing sprawl and reducing taxpayer impact, a March 2020 county draft had included a "requirement to ensure compact, multi-use self-sufficient towns are built rather than a conglomerate of neighboring villages," said Charlotte Nycklemoe, representing the League of Women Voters.
But that mandate, among others, was long gone by the time county officials presented the latest paperwork to the planning board this month.
"The draft amendments increase the acreage of towns, villages and compact rural developments and eliminate provisions proposed last March that would address self-sufficiency," said Nycklemoe, who was also among those championing affordable housing requirements and a temporary pause or moratorium in the processing of some development-related requests. "There is too much at stake to rush. We must get it right."
Things to do in Naples this summer: Here are 11 of our top spots NCH Healthcare System switching vendor for electronic medical records in early June Naples' boxcar benefactor follows a calling to Ukraine refugee camps In the Know: Too expensive? More evidence of housing slowing. Naples nightly hotel stays rise to $416 No more hotel? Developers seek tweaks to Metropolitan Naples as construction nears
More:Mega-permit for rural Collier development splits environmental groups
And:Collier Enterprises joins county's side in Conservancy's Rivergrass Village lawsuit
As has been reported over and over and over again, not all environmental groups are on the same page.
"We have a very different view on the program than the Conservancy of Southwest Florida and the League of Women Voters," said Florida Wildlife Federation's Meredith Budd, who previously worked for the Conservancy. "We have been working collegially with the landowners to make compromises for the program to best maximize the conservation outcomes for the region."
Whatever the outcome, the clock is ticking for county leaders.
"Unless the board is willing to declare a moratorium, and I don't know if the board is willing to declare a moratorium, but the more we talk about this, the more of those acres are going to be converted," Klatzkow said. "You may find that by the time you're satisfied with all the studies, the whole area will be developed."
What are you saying?
After In the Know columns, here's a small sampling of what you had to say, which Was A LOT, to me, in emails or at the planning commission gathering on this subject.
♦ "I just sent this to a list of people I've been working with for 10 years on smart growth and combating runaway development in Collier County. Your piece this morning was the best explanation of the issues at hand. (It) is the first totally honest and revealing article on the Eastern Lands in the paper, here, ever." – Neville Williams, former consultant to the U.S Department of Energy, United Nations Development Programme and the World Bank, who founded the highly decorated non-profit Solar Electric Light Fund that for three decades has financed and facilitated solar rural electrification worldwide including Sri Lanka, Nepal, Vietnam, Tanzania, Uganda and Nigeria.
More:In the Know: Naples Airport, the $440 million driveway of the rich and famous; plus solar energy updates
And:In the Know: Nine more local chain store chain closings. And are one of these 3 emerging Southwest Florida retail hotspots near you?
♦ "This is an excellent article on the cost to taxpayers and the impact on Collier County of the RLSA. This needs to be front and center (because) it will bankrupt the county. There is much more to this story." – Attorney and energy executive Elena C. Mola.
♦ Collier County's RLSA Restudy White Paper "makes clear that the county's growth of 300,000 new residents has long been anticipated and is not the result of development in the RLSA; rather, the RLSA is meant to help accommodate the population increase that is expected, since 80 percent of Collier County is in some form of public ownership and will never be developed." – Spokeswoman Tina Matte for the 11-member Eastern Collier Property Owners group largely influenced by Barron Collier Investments and Collier Enterprises Management.
♦ "Regardless of whether they feel as if they were lied to throughout the initial process, the current RLSA program allows for about 43,000 acres of development. We have to work from where we are, not hold a grudge and demand we work from where they hope we could be." – Florida Wildlife Federation's Meredith Budd, in response to our reporting of the last minute changes made in the legislation when the county commission approved the initial RLSA plan that opened the door to more development than what the public had primarily been told.
♦ "It's important that the developers be required, not encouraged, be required to employ smart growth techniques including the transcendentally important technique of growth paying for itself. (More) sprawl equals greater costs. (Unless) these goals are baked into our new RLSA program, Collier County taxpayers will continue to be saddled with significant costs that should be more properly borne by the developers." – Planning Commission Chairman Edwin "Ned" Fryer.
♦ "Ohhh, Baby, I Love Your Way." – The elevator music version of the Peter Frampton song also adapted by Will to Power and reggae pop band Big Mountain that played on the county's website just before the online start of the planning board's meeting.
Based at the Naples Daily News, Columnist Phil Fernandez (pfernandez@gannett.com) writes In the Know as part of the USA TODAY NETWORK. Support Democracy and subscribe to a newspaper.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Iowa Coffee Company has been a small batch coffee roaster since 1991. Since we were founded, there have been many changes in the world. However, the core values that drive the success of Iowa Coffee Company will always remain constant.
We roast to order for the freshest coffee experience. Your coffee will be on its way to you within 24 hours of roasting. For that reason, custom orders are always welcome.
We conduct our business with a "waste not, want not" philosophy. For example, we use biodegradable paper cups with recyclable sleeves and lids, and compost all used coffee grounds for use in our gardens. Taking steps to reduce our environmental footprint now and in the future is important to us.
We hope you enjoy the Iowa Coffee Company experience. Thank you for your loyal support.
When brewing your first pot of Iowa Coffee Company coffee, it is a good rule to make it a bit stronger than you normally would. If too strong, you can always add hot water to dilute it. If too weak, however, there is no way to correct except to start over with a fresh pot.
City Roast: Lightest roast. First crack is done.
City + Roast: First crack finished, moving toward the beginning of the second crack.
Full City Roast: Close to the beginning of the second crack.
Full City + Roast: Middle of the second crack.
Light French Roast: Second crack is done, but no oils out on beans.
French Roast: Oil out on beans and beans are dark brown.
Spanish Roast: Dark, dark beans, roasted by special request only.
Where will you find our products?
To ensure we bring your favorite coffee, email or call Tom with pre-orders by noon on the Thursday before market, and pay when you pick it up. Special orders welcome.
Order online for quick shipping!
We welcome your comments and special orders.


Gomantong Hill is the largest limestone outcrop in the Lower Kinabatangan area, and contains at least nine caves. For centuries, the Gomantong Caves have been renowned for the valuable edible birds' nests made by two of the four species of swiftlets that roost in the caves. During the harvesting months, visitors may be able to witness the birds' nest collectors in action. This is an age-old tradition and the trade history of bird nest spans several hundreds of years.
The birds' nests harvesters are individuals who have nerves of steel and skills honed through years of experience. Dangling precariously from the narrow network of ladders is not a task for the faint hearted! It is not surprising that there are only a few experienced individuals who are very much in demand by people and communities that hold the Governments harvesting licenses. Edible birds' nests are protected under the Birds Nest Ordinance and the Forest Enactment. Heavy fines and penalties are imposed on unlicensed collectors.
Birds' nest harvesters usually stay in huts close to the entrances of the caves. Their responsibilities are two-fold - they must harvest the nests according to a biologically sustainable schedule (imposed by the Wildlife Department), and they must also protect the nests from being stolen. The failure to adequately carry out either of these roles could have devastating effects on the swiftlet population and subsequent harvests.
Swiftlets have a slow breeding cycle, and usually lay not more that two eggs each season. Generally, two collections are made. The first takes place early in the breeding season before the swiftlets lay their eggs. The birds then make another nest in which they finally lay their eggs. After the young have fledged, the second collection is made. Care must be taken to assure that the nests are collected only after the young swiftlets have abandoned these nests.
Breeding seasons are particular to different species and the different caves in which the birds roost. At Gomantong Caves, the two edible swiftlet species have different breeding times. For the black-nest swiftlet, the first collection should take place no later than April or May, otherwise the birds will not have time to build another nest. The second harvest then takes place in September and October. The more valuable white-nest swiftlet nests are initially collected in February, and again in June and July. The breeding patterns of the birds are not rigid and must be closely monitored to accommodate any observable changes in their reproductive behaviour.
The birds' nest harvesters who are called tukang pemungut still employ time-tested techniques that have been used for hundreds of years. The main prop is the gugulug, a ladder made from coils of rattan rotan saga (Calamus caesius) and hardened belian (Eusideroxylon zwageri or Borneon Ironwood) which may be up to 150 metres in length.
The pietau, is another ladder which usually consist of a rigid bamboo pole about 25 metres long. Rungs are fastened across the bamboo as steps, and additional rattan cords are tied around it to offer some security to the climber. Harvesters use a sesungkit to remove the nests, which are just out of reach. It is a thin hand-held stick of bamboo or light hardwood, which has four sharp steel or bamboo points to dislodge the nests from the cave surface.
The harvester must assess the best combination of these props to be used, based on experience and the location of the nests. When collected, the nests are placed in the ambong, a woven basket that is then lowered to assistants who empty the nests into a large sack.
Besides observing the exciting display of skill and courage by the birds' nest harvesters, another activity for keen naturalists would be to watch the spectacular display of over 2 million or so resident bats as they spiral out for their evening feed. This usually occurs between 5.15 - 6.15pm, but rain sometimes delays or "cancels" this show-time. At the same time as the bats leave, the swiftlets are usually beginning to make their way back to the caves after a day's foraging. The changing of 'shifts' between the bats and birds makes quite a fascinating scene! Look out for the Bat Hawks that are not offer far from the scene, as they prey specifically on the bats as they leave their roost.
It is possible to drive all the way to the Information Centre at the foot of the Gomantong hill. You can also take any of the Sandakan-Sukau buses that will drop you off at the junction to the caves. But be warned, it is about 6 km (3.72 miles) to the caves, so you might want to charter the whole bus for convenience or pay him a little extra to get dropped off at the information centre. If you are already in Sukau, make arrangements with the local bus transport for a day trip to the caves or a stop over on the way back to Sandakan.
Entry permits are not required except during harvesting times. Please check with the Wildlife Department for the entry permits before you go.
The entrance gate will be kept opened till the last visitor of the day leaves so please inform the Wildlife Department staff on duty if you intend to leave later than the stipulated opening times.


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13 WTHR Indianapolis | Indianapolis Local News & Weather
Scott Swan
13News Anchor - @ScottWTHR
Credit: WTHR
Author: WTHR.com staff
Published: 11:43 PM EDT June 9, 2020
Updated: 4:30 PM EDT July 10, 2020
Scott Swan anchors the 5:30pm, 6:00pm and 11:00pm newscasts for Channel 13 Eyewitness News.
Swan began working for WTHR in 2002. He has been honored with the National Edward R. Murrow award, the National Sigma Delta Chi award from the Society of Professional Journalists and two National Headliner awards.
During his WTHR career, Swan has won regional Emmy awards for "Best Anchor" and honored as "Best Reporter" by the Indiana Associated Press.
Swan has traveled the world and won multiple Emmy awards for his Olympic coverage. He will lead WTHR's coverage with a trip to Japan prior to the 2020 Summer Olympics. Swan has traveled to Brazil, Russia, London, Vancouver, Beijing, Torino and Athens gathering human interest stories.
Swan has landed many exclusives during his WTHR career. He was the only Indianapolis reporter to conduct an interview with former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson in his Las Vegas home. He landed the first prison interview with Marcus Schrenker, the Geist money manager who faked his own death by jumping out of an airplane. Swan also got the first interview with Indiana rocker Henry Lee Summer who described his drug addiction. Swan performed the first TV interview with John Mellencamp before the musician launched his "No Better Than This" tour.
Swan was honored with a 2018 National Sigma Delta Chi award from the Society of Professional Journalists for "WTHR Storytellers" which included his "Miracle of the Mind" story about an Indiana man who discovered a hidden artistic talent after suffering a brain injury.
Swan won a National Edward R. Murrow award and a National Headliner award for "Mission Complete." The inspiring story chronicled Greenfield Marine Josh Bleill who suffered the loss of both legs in an Iraq bomb explosion.
Prior to his career at WTHR, Swan worked at KTVX-TV in Salt Lake City, WISH-TV in Indianapolis, KITV-TV in Honolulu, KESQ-TV in Palm Springs, KHJ-TV in Los Angeles and Disneyland Broadcast Services.
In his free time, Swan emcees a wide variety of events, gives his testimony for church groups and serves with the Lamplighter Ministry Inc. in Indianapolis.
Swan graduated with a broadcast journalism degree from Pepperdine University in 1985.
He married his high school sweetheart, Janae'. They have three adult children.
@ScottWTHR
sswan@wthr.com
© 2021 WTHR. All Rights Reserved.
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Download the Fall 2018 Newsletter
by Daniel R. Brown, MD, PhD, FCCM
In an environment where we are frequently asked to provide survey responses, our recent SOCCA survey was an outlier. In the positive sense. 161 of you provided feedback that will help shape the future of SOCCA. While 53% of you were satisfied with SOCCA, we clearly have areas in which we can improve. General themes included the need for ongoing educational content delivered in various forms (e.g., on line content for just in time use) as well as professional development resources. It is also clear that there is considerable desire by members to become more involved in SOCCA activities.
by Kevin W. Hatton, MD, FCCM
Hello!! It is my pleasure to introduce myself to you as the newest editor of our SOCCA Interchange Newsletter. I have been a part of the Newsletter now for a number of years, writing and editing a wide variety of interesting and informative pieces under the direction of previous editors that have mentored me in many different ways.
Critical Care Pain Management in the Era of Enhanced Recovery and the War on Opioids
by Christina Boncyk, MD and C. Patrick Henson, DO
Chronic pain syndromes are a persistent problem in the United States, with conservative estimates suggesting a cost $560 to $635 billion dollars annually. Chronic pain following intensive care unit (ICU) survival is difficult to quantify, as patient populations vary across hospital centers and within different ICU settings; however, current evidence demonstrates that anywhere from 12-60% of patients remain affected by chronic pain at 6-months to a year following ICU admission, which contributes to a significant portion of diagnoses nationally.
Acute Airway Obstruction After Percutaneous Tracheostomy
by J. Heath Brasher, DO and Kevin W. Hatton, MD, FCCM
Bedside percutaneous tracheostomy is a common, well-tolerated bedside procedure for critically-ill patients with prolonged respiratory failure. In this report, we present an uncommon and potentially dangerous complication of this procedure.
Defining and Defending a Blood Pressure in the Operating Room & Intensive Care Unit
by Ashish K. Khanna MD., FCCP., FCCM
Despite surgical patients presenting to the operating room (OR) sicker than ever before, the intraoperative period has, paradoxically, become far safer. Current estimates of intraoperative mortality are less than 1 in 100,000 patients. However, 30-day postoperative mortality is still significant at 1-2%, a fact that suggests that if 30-day postop mortality were considered a disease, it would be the third leading cause of death in the United States.
Sometimes, It's About the Journey, Not the Destination
by Jordan Brand, M.D.
The medical field has finally begun to recognize the impact of job satisfaction and burnout. While much attention has been paid to how changes in the work environment affect this state of affairs, less thought has been given to how variables outside the hospital or clinic could impact physician well-being. This is particularly relevant to critical care medicine: in Medscape's 2018 Physician Lifestyle Report, which polled over 15,000 physicians across 29 specialties, a whopping 48% of critical care physicians reported feeling burned out.
by Zdravka Zafirova, M.D.
The European Society of Intensive Care Medicine (ESICM) recently published a consensus statement and clinical recommendations regarding the fluid management of neuro-intensive care patients (NIC), including comatose (GCS < 9) patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI), high-grade aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), severe arterial ischemic stroke (AIS) or intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH).
by Stephen D. Surgenor, MD and Carlee Clark, M.D.
The SOCCA Membership Committee would like to welcome all of our current members, as well as, new Critical Care Anesthesiology faculty and fellows to the 2019 academic year! Overall, our current membership remains strong. Maintaining a strong and engaged membership is important to the long-term health of SOCCA. We've been able to maintain this strong membership level because of you!
A Brief Conversation with…Jeffery S. Vender
by Craig S. Jabaley, MD
Jeff Vender, MD, MCCM, MBA is the Emeritus, Harris Family Foundation Chairman of the Department of Anesthesiology at NorthShore University HealthSystem in Evanston, Illinois and a Clinical Professor at the University of Chicago Pritzker School Of Medicine. Dr. Vender was the recipient of the SOCCA Lifetime Achievement Award in 2018.
Shubin-Weil Master Clinician/Teacher: Excellence in Bedside Teaching Award
Nicholas Sadovnikoff, MD, FCCM, will receive the Shubin-Weil Master Clinician/Teacher: Excellence in Bedside Teaching Award at the Society of Critical Care Medicine's (SCCM) 48th Critical Care Congress during the American College of Critical Care Medicine Convocation/SCCM Awards Presentation held on Monday, February 18, 2019.
Have you visited SOCCA's Job Board recently? Recent listings include positions with University of Michigan School of Medicine and Anesthesia Associates of Morristown, New Jersey.
If you have an interesting case report, an idea for a pro-con discussion, a review idea, or an opinion on a recently published article, please review the submission guidelines and submit your proposal/article to Vivian Abalama, CAE, IOM at vabalama@iars.org on or before December 3, 2018. If your article is chosen for the newsletter, we will contact you for editing and formatting.


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Abortion, Cultural Priorities And Civil Disobedience
The scandal of abortion continues to plague American civilization, with the entertainment and political culture setting the parameters. Each cultural sector frames the abortion issue according to its preference, refusing to acknowledge that the discussion is about a human life. The nonsense of the entertainment culture was reflected in the recent Golden Globe awards ceremony. The atrocities that accompany abortion (e.g., marketing baby parts for research) has caused some to engage in civil disobedience.
View the most recent Issue below.
Nehemiah 5:14-6:9
A 2020 Priority: Understanding Russia And China
Nehemiah 4:15-5:13
The Prosperity Gospel And Evangelical Pragmatism
Wise Counsel For 2020: Psalm 1
"Mister Rogers' Neighborhood": What Can Fred Rogers Teach Us For 2020?
James P. Eckman (Jim) is President Emeritus and Professor in Bible and History at Grace University in Omaha, Nebraska. He has been at Grace since 1983. He holds the following degrees:
B.S., Millersville University of Pennsylvania (1969)
M.A., Lehigh University (1973)
Th.M. (with honor), Dallas Theological Seminary (1983)
Ph.D., University of Nebraska–Lincoln (1989)
He has also completed additional postgraduate work at Trinity Evangelical Divinity School. He received the Charles A. Nash Award in Historical Theology while at Dallas Seminary. [Read More]
The United States faces a new world order as we begin 2020. It is an unstable world filled with uncertainties and significant threats. It is thus important to remind ourselves as Americans that Russia and China remain the two formidable enemies of the US. Each has goals that run counter to American interests and each poses both a global and a military danger. We must understand them.
Most US presidents have had a spiritual "advisor" of some sort. For President Lincoln it was Dr. James D. Smith (when he lived in Springfield) and Rev. Phineas D. Gurley (when he resided in the White House). For President's Eisenhower and Nixon, it was Billy Graham. President Obama turned to Rick Warren of Saddleback Church in California. In November 2019, Pastor Paula White-Cain joined the Trump administration as an advisor to President Trump's Faith and Opportunity Initiative, which aims to give religious groups more of a voice in government programs devoted to issues like defending religious liberty and fighting poverty.
Bible Study Podcast
Nehemiah is an exemplary servant leader in how he organized the wall's rebuilding and how he dealt with the opposition.
Culture & Wordview
Ethics: The Unthinkable Becoming Acceptable
Years ago, I read an article written by the late Chuck Colson, who made this observation about ethical issues in Western Civilization: "What was once unthinkable, become debatable and then gradually becomes acceptable." I do not know whether this was original with Colson or whether he borrowed it from someone else, but many times I have affirmed the accuracy of this reflection. I guess I have become hardened as I have gotten older, but I find myself rarely stunned by cultural accommodation anymore. Developments I once regarded as unthinkable are now accepted widely and enthusiastically.
"The Business" Of Christmas
A COVENANT PEOPLE
Arlie Rauch on Abortion, Cultural Priorities And Civil Disobedience:
Thank you especially for the helpful pre...
Ted Veer on The Prosperity Gospel And Evangelical Pragmatism:
I think we need to pray specifically fo...
Dr. Jim Eckman
© 2020 Issues In Perspective | All Rights Reserved


Green tea is a mild stimulant to the nervous system. Green tea is also known as a bronchodilator, diuretic, and recommended supplement for many weight loss programs.
It contains powerful antioxidants (bioflavonoids), which help decrease bad cholesterol and increases good cholesterol, thus helping to reduce the risk of heart disease. It also contains the catechin EGCG, another potent antioxidant that is capable of acting against carcinogens and helps reduce high blood sugar for those who suffer from diabetes. Moreover, unlike black teas, the unfermented leaves of green teas contain higher amounts of polyphenols—powerful health promoters which inhibit the damaging effects of free radicals that damage cell tissues.
Green tea is rich in essential minerals: manganese and fluoride, which help strengthen teeth enamel and reduce plaque formation.
Green tea contains vitamin A, E, & B–these complex vitamins help in the metabolism of carbohydrates. Vitamin C, also found in green tea, helps reduce stress, fight infection and strengthen the immune system.
The caffeine content of green tea is lower than in black tea or coffee. The caffeine levels in green tea provide the desired stimulating effect against drowsiness without causing nervousness or insomnia. A cup of green tea contains between 8 and 10 mg of caffeine, while black tea contains at least double that amount: 40 to 60 mg.


The total absence of Qi is death. Good health is a balanced distribution of Qi throughout the meridian network, influencing all the bodily systems like the skeletal, muscular, endocrine, circulatory, digestive, respiratory, urinary, reproductive, and nervous. All these systems work smoothly together when the energy flow is smooth.


'The Dolphin Letters' are deeply powerful messages delivered from the ancient beings in our oceans. These letters are overflowing with Dolphin Wisdom shared to assist humankind towards our highest expression of life. Muriel has surrendered to scribing its content with remarkable scripting.
'No Victor in Disguise' is a fiction book beyond the realms of this dimension presented in the most profound brilliant story! Lesta is a most gifted wordsmith and artist!


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[Miscue-js](http://mattfenwick.github.io/Miscue-js/)
=================

Miscue-js provides a free, easy-to-use JSON validation service.

It is committed to providing complete
and accurate reporting of errors and warnings.

This is an open source project under the MIT license.

## Getting started ##

[Try me out](http://mattfenwick.github.io/Miscue-js/)!
(requires JavaScript)

## Motivation and Design ##

My main goal in building this application is a JSON validator which:

 - reports all errors -- or as many as possible in case of malformed input
 - reports as much relevant information about the errors as possible,
   especially the cause and the location

Since the what (i.e. what input triggers an error) and the
how (i.e. what information is reported with an error) of
JSON error-reporting is not specified in [RFC 4627](http://www.ietf.org/rfc/rfc4627.txt),
I came up with my own definition.  There are three main pieces:

 - **syntax errors** -- derived from inspecting [the grammar](grammar.md).
   Some examples include (not an exhaustive list):

   - unclosed strings, arrays, and objects
   - leading `0`s in numbers
   - invalid character escapes such as `\q` in strings
   - control characters (0 - 31) in strings
   - missing/extra separators (`:` and `,`)

   Since the parser is LL, the first syntax error stops parsing.

 - **semantic errors** -- legal according to RFC 4627, but troublesome
   in practice:

   - duplicate keys in objects
   - number overflow
   - number underflow

   All semantic errors are reported on a single pass.

 - **location reporting** -- reports a stack trace of all the pending rules
   when the error is detected.  For example, parsing this malformed snippet:

        {
          "abc": "

   yields an error report something like this:

        Parse error trace:
          json at line 1, column 1
          object at line 1, column 1
          key/value pair at line 2, column 3
          string at line 2, column 10
          double-quote at line 2, column 11

   Each pending rule includes its location to help you quickly track down
   the problem.

## Contributions ##

Feedback of any kind is [welcome](https://github.com/mattfenwick/Miscue-js/issues)!

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


We chat with Patrick Holford, founder of the Institute for Optimum Nutrition (ION), nutritionist, and author of more than 30 books. Patrick's latest book, The Hybrid Diet, co-authored with award-winning medical and health journalist Jerome Burne, is out now.
"A mixture of a fascination in human potential and concern about mental illness. The former came from early experiences that showed me there was more to life, a whole extra layer of connection and happiness than most people experience, and the latter from members of my family who were suffering. This led me to study psychology and get interested in intelligence and schizophrenia. Both got me studying the brain, which got me into studying nutrition."
You have written many books on nutrition. What drove you to write your latest one – The Hybrid Diet – and who is it for?
"It came out of a dual. I challenged Jerome Burne, the award-winning journalist who was waxing lyrical about the many benefits of a high fat, ketogenic diet, that I could achieve the exact same benefits from a slow carb, low GL [glycaemic load] diet. As we dug deeper we came to realise that we are designed to switch between these two modes of generating energy – from glucose or ketones – from time to time. It's a natural cycle of 'feast and fast'.
Do you follow the hybrid diet principles yourself, or any other food 'rules'? What does your daily diet look like?
Good nutrition is obviously fundamental to good health. But what other lifestyle factors should we consider for optimum wellbeing?
"State of mind and exercise is key. Right now I'm not exercising – just keeping active. Last month I climbed Mount Kenya (5,000 m), swam in the ocean a lot (in Kenya) and built a treehouse (in Wales). Next month I'm building a log cabin. I cycle and walk whenever I can.


text:
Q: Firefox Addon: Uploading Image I would like to upload an image to a site from a Firefox Addon.
I know I can createElement('canvas'), convert Image data to base64 and XHR POST the data, but I would like to see if it is possible to let Firefox handle it.
Normally, a user will click BROWSE on the site, Firefox will then Open File Upload dialogue, select file, and click OPEN.
I would like to automate that from the context menu so that a local file opened by the browser (ie an image) can be uploaded to the destination directly.
Is that possible and how?
Clarification:
In file selection for upload via Firefox, these are the required data:
- target form
- local file location
- The action attached to the OPEN button in FILE UPLOAD dialogue box
In a context menu situation that I would like to create:
- target form: will be hard-coded in the script
- local file location: the file that is right-clicked (ie gContextMenu.target.src)
- The action: here is what I would like to do and attach 'command' to the function of the above button (the existing Firefox function)
That means, not manually creating new XMLHttpRequest() and POSTing the data, and instead using the existing function of Firefox.
In other words, manually feed the 'target form' & 'local file location' to the OPEN button function of FILE UPLOAD as if that was the process that was executed.

A: Using a DOM File
The DOM File constructor actually accepts plain paths (from privileged code)
var xhr = new XMLHttpRequest();
xhr.open("POST", "http://example.org/");
xhr.setRequestHeader("Content-Type",
                     "application/octet-stream");
xhr.send(new File("/tmp/test.upload"));

This can be combined with form data.
Using an input stream
You can send nsIInputStream. So it is just a matter of knowing the path to a file, then initializing a nsIFileInputStream, a "super-interface" of nsIInputStream and send()ing stuff off with a proper Content-Type.
var {classes: Cc, interfaces: Ci, utils: Cu} = Components;

Cu.import("resource://gre/modules/Services.jsm");
Cu.import("resource://gre/modules/FileUtils.jsm");

var stream = Cc["@mozilla.org/network/file-input-stream;1"].
  createInstance(Ci.nsIFileInputStream);
stream.init(FileUtils.File("/tmp/test.upload"),
            -1, -1,
            Ci.nsIFileInputStream.DEFER_OPEN);
var xhr = new XMLHttpRequest();
xhr.open("POST", "http://example.org/");
xhr.setRequestHeader("Content-Type",
                     "application/octet-stream");
xhr.send(stream);

This can be combined (IIRC) with nsIMultiplexInputStream to construct more complex payloads.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are among the most advanced technologies currently emerging from tech centers like Silicon Valley. As a technology scout for Canon, I help our R&D teams introduce such emerging technologies to Canon's diverse product groups to maintain our leadership across a variety of product areas. An effective way to introduce these new technologies and stimulate use case discussions among solutions experts is to demonstrate how they might be used to solve a customer problem, or to enhance customer experience. A recent example has shown how AI and ML might be applied to improve the customer support experience, leveraging the foundational support of another technology: natural language processing.
When we can't get a product to do what it's supposed to do - it's painful. Not just because it's not working the way it should – but because we might have to spend a painful amount of time on the telephone with a customer support organization.
Most of us avoid calling customer support because of our multiple past experiences of seemingly endless Q&A sessions with representatives that have to run through long scripts of mostly irrelevant questions (Is the product plugged in? Did you turn it on? etc.). The point of all these questions, of course, is to help the support agent (who really does want to help) narrow all the possible solutions to the single most relevant documented solution to fix your problem.
To avoid this unpleasant and sometimes ineffective interrogation, many of us first seek help on the manufacturer's support website (FAQs, forums, etc.). Unfortunately, entering a few keywords that describe our problem typically results in an avalanche of irrelevant results. In desperation we may even go beyond the first page of search results to try and find a solution - sometimes as far as the third or fourth page before ultimately giving up.
So – How come it's so easy to find the exact facts or product information we're looking for among all the websites and data on the entire world wide web with a search engine like Goggle, Bing, or Yahoo – but we can't seem to find a single relevant document to answer to our problem on a manufacturer's website?
The difference is that most webpages and web-accessible content have been carefully optimized with descriptive information, often manually, to ensure search engines can both find it, and understand what it is about (typically called search engine optimization, SEO). But most enterprise documents do not have any additional descriptive data (metadata) to describe what they are about in order to help search engines narrow the possible options down to the most relevant information in response to a search query. (When was the last time you added descriptive metadata to a WORD document?). This means the "old fashioned" keyword style search techniques often have to be used, and since most documents within a company have the same keywords – an avalanche of (mostly irrelevant) documents are returned, just because they happen to contain one of the keywords from your search query somewhere in the text.
Natural Language Processing (NLP) is a technology that can help solve this problem. This technology has been steadily improving over the past several years as machine learning has automated its ability to interpret and understand the words and concepts within documents over the traditional, manually-administered rules-based processing techniques. At CIIS, we have implemented a technology platform that leverages the latest NLP technologies to augment document content with a rich set of metadata to clearly describe and categorize a document, and the concepts it contains.
With a knowledge base of solution documents that are fully described with this type of metadata, a smart search engine is able to filter candidate solution results much more effectively to help customers quickly find a documented solution to their problem.
This kind of fully augmented solution database can also fuel a new generation of intelligent "chat bots" that have started to emerge. One of these smart bots might pop up after a few unsuccessful solution searches within a self-serve support database. The bot would interactively ask highly relevant questions to appropriately enhance what a customer has been entering in the search box to help locate a solution – or possibly to prepare a problem summary that can be passed to a support agent if a solution can't ultimately be found in the public support knowledgebase. Such a problem summary would eliminate the bulk of the Q&A session from a support agent, who could start with an exact problem description instead of asking for a re-explanation – and possibly have several highly relevant non-public solution documents pre-fetched for him based on the problem parameters initially discovered by the smart chat bot.
Everyone would benefit. The customer would either obtain the needed solution from the online knowledgebase, or would quickly receive the support he needs from a live agent who could join the solution search with an understanding of the problem already captured. This would, of course, also shorten the duration of support calls – making manufacturers happier.
This solution use case example has generated multiple conversations within different Canon groups for potential applications of the combination of natural language processing, machine learning and AI chat bots. As an advanced solutions organization, CIIS is always on the lookout for new ways to employ innovative technologies to benefit Canon's diverse customers.


'Everyhting's For Sale' is out now!
With Everything's For Sale out now, Boogie returns with a new video off the album for "Soho" with J.I.D.
If you saw the albums short-film you would've seen a minute-plus sneak peek of the video. Now you can watch the full visuals below.


To be honest here, it's really frustrating and tiring, but worry no more as I am here with a perfect solution for you all on freebrowsingnetwork.
>>> The downside is that it is limited to some data usage (i.e you will have to be a premium user before you can have unlimited usage, but don't worry as freebrowsingnetwork got your back because we will be dropping another post on how to accumulate data using the app).
>>> After you have downloaded the app, open it. Then click on the menu icon at the top left corner.
>>> Now click on Premium Traffic and tap the Daily Check-in to get free 75MB data. Tap I'm Feeling Lucky to get free 25MB data.
>>> You can also perform other tasks shown there to get more data. Make sure you have internet connection when doing this.
>>> Now, go back to the app main page, and tap on Premium button, a pop up message will ask if you want to upgrade, click on Upgrade and choose United States as your region.
Now tap on Connect , wait for about 60 seconds for it to connect and you're good to start browsing. You will never experience any form of disconnections again.
7 Comment On "Sky VPN Settings For Glo Free Browsing Cheat, No More Disconnections 2018/2019"


Nail fungus is considered as one of the most common types of fungal infections. This disease grows in warm, dark, moist environments, and could impact fingernails and toenails. It begins as white or yellow spots on one or even more nails. If left untreated, this problem results in extra discoloration, the crumbling of fingernail or toenail edges, or pain.
Once fungus develop under your toenails, it will change the pH levels of your skin so that is will be more alkaline than the usual pH level of the skin. Thanks to the acidic effect preventing fungus from developing, apple cider vinegar can help treat foot fungus in a natural way. Also, ACV fights bacteria, germs, and other micro-orgasms causing nail fungus. It consists of anti-viral, anti-fungal, and anti-bacterial properties that can help prevent potential fungal infections. Also, the acidity of ACV relieves itching and pain.
A vinegar soak for toenail fungus can also help other problems with the feet, such as foot odors, athlete's foot, dry skin, cracked heels, etc.
Now, it is time to learn how to use apple cider vinegar for foot fungus. Take a look from Wikiyeah.com!
Copper sulfate is helpful in preventing the proud flesh and kills nail fungus effectively.
Massage your toes for several minutes with the tea tree oil mixed with a certain carrier oil of your favorite.
Thanks to the antiseptic properties of Listerine, it helps kill bacteria, fungus and germs.
When it comes to tips on how to use apple cider vinegar for foot fungus, using ACV internally seems little-known, but if you combine ACV with Manuka honey, you could cure foot fungus from inside naturally.
After learning how to use apple cider vinegar for foot fungus, you might wonder how long it takes to see positive results, right? Toenails develop at a slower rate in compare with fingernails, about 4 times slower than the finger ones. This rate even varies from person to person. In order to make sure this infection is eradicated entirely, you should keep using those home remedies till the whole diseased nail has been replaced with the healthy one. This could take a few months to even a year, depending on how fast your toenails grow.
It is very crucial to be cautious that upon using ACV for foot fungus, if you suffer from peripheral vascular disease, diabetes, or other conditions which negatively affect blood circulation to the feet and lower legs. Those conditions could result in foot injuries to heal much slower, increasing the risk of further infection.
In addition, vinegar is acidic in nature, and could aggravate your skin. If this happens, you should dilute ACV with more water. Or, you could reduce the frequency of using this ingredient and consult a healthcare provider.


In his capacity as a Columnist for Sports Radio America, Founder Jeremy Evans at California Sports Lawyer® has written an article about how the internet may be the future for profits in entertainment, media, and sports content distribution.
In his capacity as a Columnist for Sports Radio America, Founder Jeremy Evans at California Sports Lawyer® has written an article about three points to consider in the debate between the agencies and the WGA regarding a proposed Code of Conduct.
Jeremy Evans, Founder & Managing Attorney at California Sports Lawyer®, will be speaking at the Symposium on Solo Success, hosted by the Solo and Small Firm Section of the California Lawyers Association.
In his capacity as a Columnist for Sports Radio America, Founder Jeremy Evans at California Sports Lawyer® has written an article about data analytics in the entertainment, media, and sports space.
In his capacity as a Columnist for Sports Radio America, Founder Jeremy Evans at California Sports Lawyer® has written an article about producing entertainment and sports content.


Bitcoin mining consumes. enough to boil around 36,000 kettles full of water.
Beginers Guide to Building a Mining. consider is power draw.
Nvidia GTX 970 4G How to UNLOCK MAX memory clock power up to.
It has a high memory capacity of 8GB and a power draw of just 150W for a hash.
Bitcoin mining difficulty has accelerated so much with the release of ASIC mining power that. Features:94% Efficiency 1200W Switching Power Supply for GPU Open Rig Mining Ethereum.Power Supply Kit for GPU Mining.
How to Build an Energy-Efficient Ethereum Mining Rig. it needs to support a full-size GPU. both in terms of power draw and overall cost,. Does a computer use more electricity while mining Crypto Currency like. (especially GPU - this is what you use for mining on.Greater mining power in one hand does have some slight advantages.
Most of the components inside a PC have specific minimum and maximum power draw figures and, because quality control is so tight,.NVIDIA plays catch up on GPU rebadging, wave hello to the GeForce GT.
Zotac has released a new variant of the low-power NVIDIA GeForce GT 710,.
AMD Radeon RX 580 PowerColor Red Devil Golden Sample. For full load game.The Radeon RX 580 8GB Review - Polaris Populism. card and are directly measuring power draw with. loads on the GPU and can cause it to draw.
Someone claimed to use their Tesla to power a cryptocurrency. a GPU), then the 16 GPUs have a total power draw of 2.4. mining rig for a full day is the. Best Cryptocurrency Mining GPUs. and which offer much better hash rates for Bitcoin mining than does any GPU. requiring 180W to run at full power. Mining.This is a considerably higher power usage (about 29%) than the 1078W draw of.
Can you run a GPU off a M.2 slot. so if the GPU cannot draw the full 75W from the. is it able to draw power from its external PCI-E connectors before.The GPU is operating at a frequency of 1175 MHz,. the AMD Radeon RX 560 does not require any additional power connector, its power draw is rated at 75 W maximum.Graphics Card Power Draw On Screen Display Guide. a GPU for Mining.


Am I the only one in an unspeakable scruple?
Asking questions of many uncertainties.
Spinning spontaneously along the twenties.
Are we left on earth to flourish or perish?
Are we alone in individual trance of existence?
Yahweh please! Open the book for the bigots.
By Vinz-Double-O in Aesthetic, Biography of Onyeche Vincent Onyekachukwu, Christian Poem, Death, Epic Poems, Nigeria Blogger, Ode & Eulogy, Poems about Life, Poems By A Nigerian, Poems on nature and natural phenomenia, Poems on People and Customs, Poetical Subjects, Prose, Quotes & Prosody, religion on January 13, 2019 .
I follow the religion of God. And surely God is one.


text:
Boyanza Records Turn One With Compilation Release (Interview)
As Boyanza Records go full circle for one year we wanted to catch up with the label, a force to be reckoned with, churning out high quality output since their inauguration. They commemorate the occasion with their "Primera Collecion" compilation, bringing together several artists and friends, blurring the lines between genres and maintaining the quality.
Congratulations on turning one. How has the start of the year been for you?
It's been a rough year for our community and industry. To be honest we still feel a bit uncertain on how this year will go. However, we're still positive and focusing on the good things, it looks like the world will be slowly returning to normality, let's hope so. We have big plans for this 2021, collaborating and contributing with people all around the world.
How did the Boyanza journey begin?
Boyanza started in a small loft downtown in Mexico City around November 2019. A small party in which we gathered friends and family that just wanted to dance and have a good time. Even though the challenges were difficult we had a great time. After a couple of weeks, our curator Rafael Tena (Rafatel) had some tracks ready to be released but felt frustrated with all the label process. Although labels play a huge part in our scene, sometime the process can be long and tiring. We had the concept and image, so we decided to launch the label, with the idea of giving young talented producers (and established producers) an opportunity to put their tracks out there. Our first official release was on January 2020. After our first release Rafatel contacted Gaude (Patricio Gaudelli), long time friend and producer from Miami. And after a few talks they decided to release an EP and incorporate Gaude to the team. Leaving him in charge of operations in Miami. After that, the label just started running and we noticed a great response from people.
The label is established between Mexico and Miami, do you think both of these places influence the direction of the label? What do both places offer musically?
The first connection we noticed between cities was the Latin community. Both cities are extremely warm in terms of people, climate, and vibe. In addition, both cities have a great electronic music scene. On one side, Mexico City is a huge city full of microscenes. In the past 10 years, it has established as one of the most important cities worldwide speaking, offering a huge amount of parties, events and festivals. Artists are really diggin the vibe, as upcoming promoters and labels are putting their word out there. On the other hand Miami has always been a party city. Hosting the Miami Music Week & Art Basel, party is in Miami's DNA. However we noticed that it may be difficult for upcoming artists to put their voice out there. That is why we decided to launch the label collaborative between cities. Also, Mexico and USA have a rich history in sharing and exporting goods and services. We truly think there is a true connection between cities, and also to give artists presence in other countries.
The forthcoming compilation is a great selection of different moods, is this something important to yourselves and the label? How did you decide which artists to invite on board?
Electronic music has changed a lot throughout the years. We are true passionate of the genre. However, we noticed that just focusing in one genre or type of electronic music was against our principles. Our favourite dj's and producers are not afraid of experimenting through the genre spectrum, and that is a bit what we are trying to do, always keeping a certain style. Our process of curation was made around that ideal. We really want to show the true power of electronic music. Not limiting us, and making every one of our producers be part of a beautiful community. We invited fellow dj's, collectives and producers that we really admire. Some of them are upcoming and some of them are very established. The process was fun and we learned a lot.
Do you ever have any other Boyanza news you can tell us about at this stage?
We are planning future releases for April/May, very exciting tracks to be honest. Also, as the world is slowly re-openning, we a planning to reactivate a bit our party project. Planning events in Mexico City, Miami, Tepoztlan and San Miguel. We are also receiving demos, so if you are reading this, don't be afraid and send us something
Can you choose one track which sums up the labels inspiration? (Youtube Link)
Difficult question!
All things Boyanza below:
Boyanza Records Facebook
Boyanza Records Instagram
Boyanza Records Bandcamp
Boyanza Records Soundcloud
March 17, 2021 By Contributing Writer


"Because He Lives" - Bill and Gloria Gaither The Speak Life Church has an ASCAP music license.
John 14:19 … because I live, you will live also.
"The blood will never lose its power" - Andre Crouch. The Speak Life Church has an ASCAP music license.


text:
Montreal's Olympic Stadium used to house surge in asylum seekers crossing from U.S.
A temporary welcome centre has been opened at the Olympic Stadium in Montreal to house a new wave of asylum seekers coming from the United States to Quebec, many of them Haitians.
"We've never seen this before," said Francine Dupuis, who oversees PRAIDA, the provincial government organization that helps claimants in their first months.
"It's really quite a bit more intense than what we're used to."
On Wednesday, asylum seekers were taken to the Olympic Stadium by bus. Among them were children and pregnant women.
In the past, PRAIDA has worked with a Montreal YMCA to temporarily provide newcomers with housing and support, but the recent surge of Haitians crossing the border from the United States has strained PRAIDA's existing resources and forced it to open several new centres, including one at the Olympic Stadium.
'We've never seen this before. It's really quite a bit more intense than what we're used to.'- Francine Dupuis, PRAIDA
Between 100 and 450 cots have been set up in the Olympic Stadium. The asylum seekers will be housed in the area with concession stands just on the border of the actual arena. It's a windowless, concrete hallway.
A spokesperson for Olympic Park said the request to use the stadium came on Friday.
"We were quick to say, 'OK, how much space do we need?'" Cédric Essminimy said. "And in 24 hours, everything was set."
The Olympic Stadium is one of Montreal's most well-known landmarks. It was built in the early 1970s as a venue for the 1976 Summer Olympics. Known locally as the Big O, it was home to the Montreal Expos until the team left the city in 2004.
Dozens of other asylum seekers who crossed illegally into Quebec are still being held by the Canada Border Services Agency at the St-Bernard-de-Lacolle border crossing south of Montreal.
A number of tents and temporary shelters have been set up there to accommodate the asylum seekers.
Though official numbers have not been released by the federal government, Dupuis estimates 1,174 asylum seekers crossed into Quebec in July. In comparison, PRAIDA helped 180 people in July 2016.
In May, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to withdraw the protective status of Haitians who took refuge in the country following the 2010 earthquake.
Up to 58,000 people could face deportation back to Haiti in January 2018.
A woman interviewed Wednesday at Roxham Road, a key point of entry for asylum seekers crossing illegally into Quebec, said she left the U.S. because she was scared.
"We didn't know what was going to happen," she said.
"So we checked online and we saw that Canada was going to welcome Haitians, and that's why we come here."
One man who spoke to reporters from the Olympic Stadium identified himself as Haitian and said he arrived in Canada about a week ago.
"It feels really good to be in Canada because it's so calm," he said in French.
PRAIDA's Dupuis said Montreal's large Haitian community is a reason why many Haitians are crossing the border into Quebec.
"Obviously, there is a stronger attraction to coming to Quebec for Haitians than in other provinces," she said.
"They have the help of their community to get settled."
Marjorie Villefranche, director general of the Maison d'Haiti, a hub for the Haitian community in Montreal, said the group has been hearing from families living in the U.S. hoping to come to Canada.
In the last three weeks especially, a larger number of Haitians have been crossing the border asking for refugee status, she said. Villefranche said the Maison d'Haiti helps asylum seekers fill out paperwork to be able to stay in Canada.
She said word of how to cross into Canada has spread quickly on Haitian social networks, encouraging more people to come to Quebec.
However, it's unclear if they'll be able to stay. Asylum seekers originally from Haiti who have crossed the Canada-U.S. border could be deported back to Haiti if their application is refused, because Canadian authorities deem Haiti as a sufficiently safe country.
Montreal Mayor Denis Coderre took to social media to welcome the Haitian asylum seekers.
"You can count on our full co-operation," he wrote.
Quebec Immigration Minister Kathleen Weil confirmed Wednesday afternoon that Haitians make up around 70 per cent of recent asylum seekers.
She said the influx is not unprecedented and Quebec is working "hand in glove" with the federal government to process the asylum seekers in a timely manner.
"We can handle it. There is not one ministry that is concerned about that — the federal government is not concerned about it. We have seen volumes like this in the past," she said.
The asylum seekers are usually housed for a couple of weeks, Dupuis said. PRAIDA also uses the centres to help them get their paperwork in order and find permanent housing.
Dupuis said the organization is in daily contact with the provincial government and is working to deal with demand as it comes, but they cannot predict whether the number of asylum seekers will stabilize, increase or diminish.
In first six months of 2017, there have been 4,345 illegal border crossings by asylum seekers in Canada. Border crossings into Quebec represent the vast majority — 3,350 of the 4,345.
Under Canada's Safe Third Country Agreement with the United States, most asylum claims made at official land border crossings with the U.S. are denied on the spot.
The agreement deems both Canada and the U.S. safe for asylum seekers and requires them to make a refugee claim in the first country they arrive in.
However, by entering Canada illegally and claiming refugee status, asylum seekers are generally allowed to stay while their refugee applications are processed.
Source: CBC News / Kate McKenna
Photo: A group of asylum seekers leave Olympic Stadium to go for a walk in Montreal on Wednesday. The stadium is being used as temporary housing to deal with the influx of asylum seekers arriving from the United States. (Ryan Remiorz/Canadian Press)