Our fragrance oil lines of Soy-Based and Ultra-Strong were designed for use in candle making. You can use our fragrance oils with soy wax, bees wax, other vegetable waxes and paraffin waxes. Most* of our fragrance oils can also be used for soap making and other personal care products including lotions and body and bath products.
All of our fragrance oils are tested in either Golden Brands 464 or NatureWax C-3 for hot and cold scent throw. Then we test burn them at the office and at our homes for hot scent throw. We only sell fragrances that have passed our testing. Our fragrances come 100% concentrated from our manufactures located here in the USA. All of our fragrance oils are manufactured to RIFM and IFRA standards. A large amount of the fragrances we sell have essential oils as part of the formula. The pricing listed here are wholesale prices so there is no need for a special license to receive the best deal. We offer hundreds of candle scents for you to choose from. Also we are testing and adding more scents throughout the seasons.
General use of fragrance oils is 1 ounce to 1 1/2 ounces per pound of wax. Some fragrances you could use less and some you may need a little bit more.
*Please check the fragrance categories to determine if the fragrance oil is suitable for the personal care product you with to use the fragrance in. In most cases you will see the maximum amount you can use.
Disclaimer: Northstar Country Candle Co. does not offer finished products. What we do offer is custom fragrances through duplications, creations, or modifications created, manufactured and purchased through our fragrance manufactures for use in your finished products. Product names, brands, and other trademarks or trade names featured or referred to within Northstar Country Candle Co. are the property of their respective holders. These holders are not affiliated with Northstar Country Candle Co., our products, our website, nor do they sponsor or endorse our materials. The use of these trademarks or trade names in no way indicates any relationship between Northstar Country Candle Co. and the holders and is used only for descriptive identification to convey the aroma being purchased. Every effort has been made to properly identify and attribute trademarks or trade names to their respective owners wherever possible and/or practical.


text:
NIETZSCHE – The Musical
How do you love life — all of it?
Nietzsche! In Broadway World
Check out our announcement!
Hebron residents Kimerer LaMothe and Geoffrey Gee will present a developmental reading of their brand new musical – Nietzsche! – on the MainStage of the Fort Salem Theater in Salem, NY, August 21 at 7 PM.
Nietzsche! The Musical traces the tangled, passionate relationships that shaped the life and legacy of one of the most influential philosophers in the western world: Friedrich Nietzsche (1844-1900). While many people are familiar with the name "Nietzsche," few know about the two women who helped make him who he was: Lou Salomé, the woman he wanted as his wife, and his sister Elisabeth, who married an anti-Semitic Christian activist and moved to Paraguay to found a colony for the pure German race.
Nietzsche's love for both of these women brought him face to face with challenges that threatened to destroy him. Yet time and again, he reached for a way to love life – all of it. His story of struggle and affirmation carries relevance for our time.
In writing Nietzsche!, Kimerer LaMothe, PhD (book, lyrics, melodies) draws on over thirty years of research into Nietzsche's life and work. She is a dancer, philosopher, and award-winning author of six books, two musicals, and over 100 blog posts for Psychology Today. Her second book, Nietzsche's Dancers (Palgrave Macmillan, 2006), offers the only comprehensive analysis of dance imagery in Nietzsche's writing. As LaMothe confirms, "The more I learn about Nietzsche, the more convinced I am that the best way to communicate the primary thrust of his life-affirming philosophy is through music and dance."
Pianist and composer Geoffrey Gee, LaMothe's longtime collaborator, has written an expressive, engaging score for this musical, featuring a range of styles from pop and rock to classical jazz. As Gee states, "Kimerer's melodies and lyrics are inspiring, funny, poignant, and chock-full of meaning. My role is to build a musical world in which they can communicate directly into the hearts of the audience."
In describing their collaboration, LaMothe explains: "It's like magic. Geoffrey takes the melodies I sing into my iPhone and fleshes them out through his own musical sensibility, until it's not clear where my work ends and his begins. Every song becomes a third thing – ours."
The cast sparkles with talented performers from near and far, led by Jordan LaMothe as Nietzsche, Erin Kennedy as Lou Salomé, and Hannah Gruendemann as Elisabeth; and including Fort Salem Theater veteran Sue Caputo, and local artists Chris Giannitti, Michael Gallagher, and Dan Slavin.
Nietzsche! also features live musical accompaniment. Gee will lead a trio, with Sam McVicker from Dorset, VT on drums, Kai LaMothe on bass and guitar, and Gee on keyboards.
LaMothe affirms that this musical is for everyone: "If you know nothing about Nietzsche, his story will move you. If you know a little about Nietzsche, you'll come away with a new perspective. If you know a lot about Nietzsche, please engage us in a long conversation about his work and its relevance for our time. Whoever you are, our hope is that you leave the show with a sense of what we find at the heart of his philosophy: a resounding love for life.
The reading will be performed one night only, and will be directed by Kyra Gee. A Question & Answer with the cast and creative team will follow immediately after the performance.
Tickets are free. Reservations are required. Unvaccinated audience members will be asked to wear masks.
For tickets: 518-854-9200. www.fortsalem.com
This entry was posted in affirmation of life, dance, musical theater, Nietzsche, philosophy, Uncategorized, women and tagged dance, Fort Salem Theater, Geoffrey Gee, Kimerer LaMothe, love, musical, Nietzsche on August 7, 2021 by Kimerer LaMothe.
← The Women in his Life (Why Write a Musical about Nietzsche? Part 2) Introducing Friedrich (Fritz) Nietzsche! →
August Reading
Our Band
Young Fritz & Young Elisabeth
Bernhard & Paul
NIETZSCHE - The Musical

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Andy Murray face Stan Wawrinka in the first semi-final of the 2017 French Open on Friday.
Andy Murray will take on Stan Wawrinka in the first Men's Singles semi-final clash of the 2017 French Open at Court Philippe Chatrier on 9 June, Friday.
The match starts at 11.45am BST. Live TV coverage in the UK will be available on ITV 4 and British Eurosport. Live updates and radio commentary will be available on the official Roland Garros site.
Murray and Wawrinka's last Grand Slam appearance was during the 2016 French Open semi-final. The 30-year-old came out victorious as the course of the match was decided in the fourth set, with the final scoreline 6-4, 6-2, 4-6, 6-2.
The world number one will be hoping he can manage another victory over Wawrinka in order to seal another berth in this year's final. The winner of the first semi-final clash will face either Rafael Nadal or Dominic Thiem in the final as the latter two will face each other in the second semi-final clash later on Friday.
Wawrinka has been in fine form in the second Grand Slam of the calendar year. He defeated Marin Cilic in straight sets to seal a berth in the last four as the quarter-final scoreline was 6-3, 6-3, 6-1.
The Swiss tennis star has not dropped a set in this year's competition. Wawrinka will be hoping to extend that run in the semi-final and should he manage it, he will make it to the second final at Roland Garros. The last time he made an appearance in the final, he won the tournament in 2015.
Murray, on the other hand, has managed only two straight set victories so far in this year's French Open. In the last eight, the Scot defeated Kei Nishikori after losing the first set. The final scoreline was 2-6, 6-1, 7-6, 6-1 in Murray's favour.
Murray and Wawrinka have faced each other on 17 occasions and the former has won 10 of those matches. The pair have met five times in a Grand Slam event and Murray has won on five occasions. In the last five matches, Wawrinka has managed to beat the Scot three times.
Murray and Wawrinka clashed against each other in the semi-final of the 2016 French Open. It was the world number one who came on top after winning the match 6-4, 6-2, 4-6, 6-2.


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A 17-year-old boy has been stabbed to death in a disturbance involving teenagers in Halifax on Saturday night.
At 9.29pm yesterday (October 27) police were called to East Park Road in the Ovenden area, where a teenage boy was reported to have been stabbed.
Officers found two males with stab wounds and a third with a head injury. All three were taken to hospital. One of the three, with stab wounds, died a short time later.
The injuries to the other two are not believed to be life threatening and both are said to be in a stable condition.
Three 17-year-old boys have been arrested on suspicion of murder and remain in custody.
"Our enquiries are at an early stage and are continuing, but we believe there were a significant number of witnesses to what happened."
Calendar's Martin Fisher reports from the scene.


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I read so much negativity concerning Jenny, but I always thought she was great, and I loved the episode too. I know loads of people have issues with the character for various reasons, but I liked her loads and would love to see her appear again. possible companion maybe? Any other fans here?
Not sure about making her a companion, but it'd be good to see her cross paths with her Dad again at some point. Show up unexpectedly mid-story, rescue the Doctor / get rescued by the Doctor, get confused about why he has a difference face, wave a cheery (possibly slightly annoyingly over-cheery) goodbye and be on her away, possibly to show up again some other series.
For reasons of taste and in keeping with the family audience I have desisted from posting a reply here. Suffice to say I would more than welcome an appearance from Gorgeo.. Sorry Georgia Moffat. In fact I think she would be a rather good companion for MS's iteration of the Doctor and would add a unique dynamic.
I dont know how I didnt see this thread before!! I adore Jenny and I cant wait for her to return (Its going to happen!!) I loved the way she was a bit cheeky with the Doctor in a way that a daughter is with her dad, though that kind of makes their real life relationship feel a little weird now. Or their relationship makes the on screen thing weird? Meh, I dunno. I do know though that I love the character and when that bit of regeneration energy escaped her lips at the end of the episode I was landed!
I loved Jenny. From those first words "Hello dad" I was hooked on her. I love the confidence she has. I totaly think she should come back. But not in DW. Maybe she should meet the Doctor once. I'd love to see how that plays out. But after that, she should work for Torchwood. Who agrees?
#Doctor: Amy was frightened. I was frightened. But we survived, you know, and the relief of it... And so she kissed me. #Rory: And you kissed her back. #Doctor: No, I kissed her mouth. #Rory: Funny.
I think it would be GREAT to have Jenny come back and do some episodes with 11. We know she ran off to save worlds etc. so there's no reason why they shouldn't cross paths at some point. That would be so much fun to watch!
I have to say I'm surprised she hasn't materialised again in one form or another. I had her down for at least one other appearance in DW...if not a spin off of her own.
Perhaps SJA for an ep....but not Torchwood. Definitely NOT Torchwood. Her and Jack in the same show???
Favourite Companion: love them all Rose was you know Rose Martha was epic to.
people hate her? only saw one hater yeah I want her to guest star she needs her own t.v show.
Hate may be taking it a tad too far but the idea behind her was certainly not well accepted. As with most things people tend to have their own ideas of what can/can't happen.
Ditto, I could never understand the negativity over Jenny. On my list of favorite characters, she's second, listed right after River Song. As I'm typing this, though, I'm thinking of all the things I've read people say negatively about her (like being able to jump between the lasers) and I'm realizing there's a definite parallel here between her and River Song: both characters constantly get bashed because they parallel The Doctor's greatness. People will call them Mary-Sues, yet nobody ever calls The Doctor (or any of his parallels like Captain Jack or The Master) Gary-Stus. In fact, they're popular and praised constantly for all their quirks and "specialness." The only difference is that when women get to have and display abilities that are special and mind defying, suddenly they're dubed Mary-Sues. Nobody questioned when The Doctor threw a rock or something in "Human Nature" and created an impossibly complicated string of events to occur to keep...what was it, the piano from falling on the baby carriage? (I haven't seen the episode in a while.) But he stopped it from happening by throwing one thing at the exact right spot, at the exact right time. But does that make him a Gary-Stu? No. But Jenny, The Doctor's daughter who has been bred with the skills of a trained warrior, is a Mary-Sue because she can backflip through criss crossing lasers. It's definitely not fair.
I thought her episode stank worse than the fish people starring in it, but I really liked the character, mostly because Georgia rocks.
DT is one lucky fella.
What's the significance of a cricket ball? Sorry, I'm not involved with sports/physical activity/anything of the like, so it's not obvious to me at all.


Heat oven to 350°. Generously butter a 1 quart baking dish.
Cook pasta al dente, salting water to taste (DO NOT RINSE) and set aside.
In a large sauté pan, heat olive oil over medium heat, add onion and pinch of salt. Sauté for 3 minutes. Add Italian Dry Gallo Salame and cook 1 minute.
Add cooked pasta and stir to combine. Remove from heat.
In a medium saucepan, heat milk and half & half over low heat, bring just to a boil and remove from heat.
In large saucepan, melt butter over low heat. Add flour and cook, stirring constantly with a wooden spoon for 2 minutes. Do NOT brown. Remove from heat.
Add 2 tablespoons of the milk to flour mixture, stirring constantly until milk is incorporated. Repeat until ½ cup of the milk has been added. Then gradually add the remaining milk, stirring between additions.
Return pan to low heat. Stir frequently, especially along the edges until the sauce is the consistency of a thick cream. Stir in salt and remove from heat.
Combine pasta mixture with sauce and mix in cheese. Transfer to baking dish, cover with bread crumbs and dot with butter. Bake until golden 18-20 minutes. Let stand 5-8 minutes before serving.


Like a hard baguette? How the heck can you say that?
More like Wonder Bread, I think.
Look, I hardly even know him.
Actually, now that I think about it, probably more like a chicken pot pie.
Look, next time I see the Pillsbury Doughboy, I'll call you and you can bake him yourself to find out what he'd taste like.
7 Cute. I think he'd taste like a dinner roll, personally.
6 Great tag, good strip but felt a bit confused in delivery.
6 Should probably be Ted instead of Willie.
5 Ummm...interesting. Tag kinda grosses me out.


text:
Field Guide to the Flower Flies of Northeastern North America
Alle anzeigen Fliegen & Mücken
A groundbreaking guide to flower flies in North America.... Mehr anzeigen
Autoren Jeffrey H. Skevington and Michelle M. Locke, Andrew D. Young, Kevin Moran, William J. Crins and Stephen A. Marshall
Verlag Princeton University Press
Größe 13 cm x 21 cm
Bilder Reich illustriert mit Farbfotos
A groundbreaking guide to flower flies in North America
This is the first comprehensive field guide to the flower flies (also known as hover flies) of northeastern North America. Flower flies are, along with bees, our most important pollinators. Found in a varied range of habitats, from backyard gardens to aquatic ecosystems, these flies are often overlooked because many of their species mimic bees or wasps. Despite this, many species are distinctive and even subtly differentiated species can be accurately identified. This handy and informative guide teaches you how.
With more than 3,000 color photographs and 400 maps, this guide covers all 416 species of flower flies that occur north of Tennessee and east of the Dakotas, including the high Arctic and Greenland. Each species account provides information on size, identification, abundance, and flight time, along with notes on behavior, classification, hybridization, habitats, larvae, and more.
Summarizing the current scientific understanding of our flower fly fauna, this is an indispensable resource for anyone, amateur naturalist or scientist, interested in discovering the beauty of these insects.
3000+ color photos (field and museum shots)
Multiple images per species, with arrows highlighting key field marks
Grayscale images showing the actual size of the insect
Range maps for each species
Information on size, identification features, abundance, flight times, and more
Jeffrey H. Skevington is a research scientist and Michelle M. Locke is a collection management technician with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada at the Canadian National Collection of Insects, Arachnids, and Nematodes (CNC). Andrew D. Young is a postdoctoral fellow with the California Department of Food and Agriculture at the California State Collection of Arthropods. Kevin Moran is a doctoral candidate at Carleton University. William J. Crins is retired and spent much of his career working with the parks and protected areas program of the Ministry of Natural Resources in Ontario. Stephen A. Marshall is professor of entomology at the University of Guelph.
Schlagworte:field guide (405)hoverflies (9)Schwebfliegen (6)Veldgids (375)zweefvliegen (7)
Common Bees of Eastern North America
Beetles of Western North America
Veldgids Zweefvliegen
Insects - Their Natural History and Diversity
Insects of North America
Britain's Hoverflies
British Hoverflies
Hoverflies of Northwest Europe
Pollinators & Pollination


Everytime you're working on a new website there are some things and/or actions that should be considered before publishing a new website and making everything public. It is very important to be prepared in advance, as things are inevitable.
In this article I'll try to capture some of these important things and/or factors many developers often forget during the process of web development. Forgetting these actions can add up to big problems, considering these items will help your search engine ranking result and the overall user experiences of your site.
The idea to write an article about this topic has everything to do with my publication of a new site yesterday, my 'invite-me-to-dribbble-website': http://www.rajtoral.com/dribbble – please tweet, share or bookmark!
First things First: It sounds a bit as a no-brainer, but I know peeps (not further mentioned by name) that wanted a specific name for their website, but didn't check if the domain name was free. Way before publishing your website also make sure you get the desired name of your website on the major social networks. Start with Twitter & Feedburner since the username you chose will show up in the URL.
Also it is quite important to choose a good and reliable webhost where you can host your site, more about this: How to Choose Your Type of Webhosting.
Search Engines rely on these tags to provide title and description for the search results. The title tag is one of the most important (if not the most important) element for SEO and tells visitors what they can find or expect on that specific webpage. The description and keyword tag are not important for SEO but still a good idea to include, because it is the description of your page in a search engine result.
This can become a enormous headache but it's essential that your website appears correctly in all major browsers. If your website looks good in Internet Explorer 8, it's doesn't automatically mean your website also looks good in e.g. FireFox, Safari, Opera, Chrome or even IE6.0? It's a deadly sin for your website if your audience is unable to view your website.
If you want to check the cross browser compatibility of your website(s), don't download the multiple browsers, just try Browserlabs or Browsershots. There is an older article on the gonzoblog.nl completely dedicated to this topic: Cross browser CSS for your site.
Validating your website will point out errors that you may have missed while coding, things that could be incredibly hard to find manually. A validator also checks for nesting errors (a missing <alt> tag?) and other strange things like your character encoding and help you with overall cross-browser compatibility. Aim for 100% validation, but realize it may not happen.
You can create your Google Sitemap Online; XML Sitemaps Generator, offers as sitemap generator that creates XML and HTML variants. Free up to a maximum of 500 pages or purchase a script for unlimited use.
CleanCSS can fix errors, optimize, and properly format your CSS. Smush.it by Yahoo, will optimize all the images on a web page without losing the quality.
As an Internet marketing strategy, SEO considers how search engines work and what people search for. Optimizing a website primarily involves editing its content and HTML and associated coding to both increase its relevance to specific keywords and to remove barriers to the indexing activities of search engines. Here on the gonzoblog.nl we've got a complete category dedicated to SEO.
Don't forget to embed a favicon to your webpages. It allows your readers to recognize your site when having your site opened in a tab or bookmarking a page. You can see your favicon as a form of branding, all sites should have them!
You can make your favicon online, but always remember to use the right dimensions, a favicon always measures 16 x 16 pixels and has an .ico-extension at the end.
As you site grows having useful traffic information is important. Installing an analytics tool helps in measuring statistics on how your site is performing, so that you get the real picture as to where you need to improve. They track daily hits, browser statistics, user by country, and more. The number one free analytics tool is Google Analytics.
It is important to check broken links in your site as it effects SEO and other factors too, so check it with W3C linkchecker. Nothing is more annoying for a reader to think he/she found the information they needed and the specific page just doesn't seems to exist (anymore)!
Readers often want to be involved. They will email you about mistakes, bugs, questions, and suggestions. But more importantly it helps build trust with readers, allowing them to email you if ever required.
Read everything you write, and let other people do the same. There will be mistakes you miss the first time reading through that someone else may notice. We are all guilty of making mistakes, .. we're human!
After you've build your website, it's maybe perfect for you, but not to all of your visitors. A good idea is to have complete strangers navigate the website. Check the functionality, usability and accessibility of your website!
Normally, major search engines will find you in no time if you have others linking to your website. However, you should submit a sitemap and sign up for the webmaster services offered by both Google & Yahoo.
Always have a recent backup of your website because one day you may lose it all. I've had my web host experience issues before and backing up saved my life. After launching your website the work does not end there. You need not only to continue updating it, but you need to promote your site across the Internet.
For publishing a blog there are even more points to consider, like for instance subscribing your Feed to Feedburner, allowing readers to subscribe will remind them about any updates that occur.
I'm not doing bad with 1000+ unique visitors per month.
I designed this site completely from scratch, hoping to have created an unique look?
with a well-optimized website, the majority of your visitors will probably come from search engines.
But it's not necessarily always true, don't forget your (back)links. Great back-links on relevant heavy traffic-sites is also a good way to get visitors to your site (I'ld love a backlink on the index-page of .. Adobe or Apple!).
And don't forget social media. My 'invite-me-to-dribble-site' had the first day 700+ visitors, the site even wasn't indexed in Google yet!
Thanks for your comment, Cheers & Ciao ..
you can always pay me, that's not the prob, Bob ;-P Glad I could inform you more on this topic!


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Beautiful townhome in the heart of Steele Creek has been updated and meticulously maintained. Vaulted ceilings in dual master bedrooms, walk-in closets provide lots of storage. Laminate flooring throughout (except in full bathrooms). New kitchen in 2014, granite countertops throughout. New blinds and stove in 2017. Open concept allows for lots of natural light, green space in back yard. 1.5 miles to Rivergate, 5 miles to Charlotte Premium Outlets, minutes to Carowinds, 77 & 485. Main entrance has a light for easy access to neighborhood. Beautiful pool area and sidewalks throughout the community.


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Dog training could be helpful for many conditions and aids facilitate contact between you and your dog. Specifically, working together with the liner tote brings rapid progress throughout the training.
The feed tote as well as Futterdummy, is, as its name suggests, a sort of bag, that can be full of treats. So training is utilized to educate the regaining the four-legged. The Futterdummy dog coach Jan Nijboer, that incorporates him into his dog training and consequently managed to attain success, in the beginning, was understood.
As the principle supporting the tote is quite straightforward, he could even be produced. You may work around using a pencil or even a leather purse. It's simply important your dog can damage it and the substance is also possible naturally. You will find now to purchase Futterdummys from the Zoo trade.
The Futterdummy can be a help when various learning and exercises of various commands. The focus is, of course, the retrieving of the bag and later other products. Additionally, it's possible to teach your dog commands such as "off", "Seat", or "Place". The goal should be that a connection between the bag and the control is made, what works best by rewards. Generally improves your dog's attention, which makes it reacts quicker and total shutdowns.
Dogs are generally very careful, but also soon lose interest if they aren't claimed. To create the Futterdummy intriguing, you should do the job in order best with the thing, such as the dogs favor: treats. These are full of the presence of your dog in the bag, which can be quickly closed then. After that will be performed. The tote can be dragged across the ground, thrown, and concealed. The gap, however, is that immediately follows a reward from the bag on any favorable reaction. The four-legged learns fast that the Futterdummy for something great is and will be more and more on exercises and commands, to begin with.
You should, nevertheless, make certain your dog doesn't keep the bag, but always returns. He should stay something special and not function as a normal toy. So your dog bored doesn't and isn't especially überfrisst of treats, it is possible to vary with different exercises.
Missing Your four-legged friend has heard the reclaiming command can be educated "Lost". Throughout the practice, it comes your dog with the control at the lost bag or later for different items finds and brings them back. That works best if you are traveling with your dog. Then you just drop the bag, you eliminate a couple of steps and then the command "give lost", as you're on the tote. Your dog will quickly understand this and, as noticed in the clinic session, bring back the bag. Space can be increased gradually until the four-legged friends in the control understand the Futterdummy close is. He'll then automatically fetch him to pick up his reward. After may then even a glove or the scarf "missing" are, and your dog will bring him back.


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text:
Betting on Time Inconsistency: Glencore Will Profit When Reality Intrudes on Renewables Reveries
Filed under: Climate Change,Economics,Energy,Politics,Regulation — cpirrong @ 6:01 pm
In his swan song at Glencore, the soon to retire Ivan Glasenberg doubled down on coal:
In what's likely to be the final deal announced by outgoing Chief Executive Officer Ivan Glasenberg, Glencore agreed to buy stakes owned by BHP Group and Anglo American Plc in the Cerrejon thermal coal mine for about $588 million, subject to purchase price adjustments.
Glencore is filling a void left by two mining giants:
The sale completes Anglo's retreat from thermal coal and extends similar efforts by BHP, amid investor pressure. However, Glencore has committed to run its coal mines for another 30 years, potentially allowing it to profit as rivals retreat. It's already the biggest shipper of the fuel, and gaining full control of Cerrejon gives the company even more exposure just as prices trade at the highest level in years, buoyed by strong demand as the global economy rebounds.
In my opinion, this is a very canny contrarian bet. The panicked flight from coal by the Anglos and BHPs and others of the world is directly attributable to political and policy pressure. Hydrocarbons bad. Renewables good. Hydrocarbon companies are evil. You will be punished you carbon spewing bastards! Your CEOs will be snubbed by righteous people. Oh Noes!
But these policies are predicated on a collective delusion about renewables. Bloomberg can preach all it wants about how renewables are as efficient as conventional generation, but the fact is and will remain that dispatchable, reliable, continuous conventional generation, producing power from cheaply stored chemical energy, will remain much cheaper that non-dispatchable, intermittent, unreliable renewables that will have to rely on expensive battery storage. Bloomberg's "levelized cost" metric is total bullshit because it leaves out all of the costs associated with reliability, transmission, and intermittency–details, details!
Renewables will never be able to handle current electricity demand at reasonable cost, but policymakers in the grip of the delusion are adding to electricity demand by forcing the electrification of other energy consumption, including transportation and home heating and cooking.
And it is almost certain that Glasenberg recognizes these delusions for what they are, and knows that in five to ten years time reality will rear its ugly head–recognition of reality can be postponed, but not forever. And Glasenberg recognizes when that reckoning comes, and electricity costs spike and reliability plunges, countries around the world will come begging for dependable electricity sources. And thus, they will come begging to Glencore for its coal.
The payoff will be all the bigger because Anglo, BHP, and others will not invest, leaving a capacity void. Price will rise to ration the limited supply.
Current government energy policies around the world are not time consistent. Political coercion to achieve a utopian outcome will result in more costly and less reliable energy that will not be politically sustainable. Ivan Glasenberg recognizes that time inconsistency, and as his parting gift to Glencore's shareholders–and the world, frankly, when it comes to his senses–is an investment that will pay off handsomely when reality intrudes on renewables reveries.
I've learned to ignore any mention of levelised cost of energy – I don't think that a truly objective assessment is even possible. Everybody seems to have an agenda when they calculate it.
Comment by HibernoFrog — June 30, 2021 @ 3:43 am
Prof is conveniently leaving out Glencore re-opening the Mutanda mine, the world's largest mine for cobalt. A huge bet on batteries and electrification of transport.
Comment by [email protected] — June 30, 2021 @ 4:32 am
It's not renewables that have killed coal generation – it's natural gas.
Natural gas is more dispatchable, cleaner and cheaper – way way cheaper. Coal has been in relative decline globally for 10 or 15 years which coincides with the explosion of NG generation.
Nobody would willingly build a coal fired electricity plant these days – the only reason it survives at all is because of central planning (China). In competitive markets, coal is dead.
It's just economics and is nothing new – a bit like the way coal effectively took over from nuclear in the late 80s on the basis of price.
And in practice you don't need huge banks of batteries to support significant amount of renewables – nearly 25% of the electricity generated in the US (and nearly 50% in some European countries) comes from renewables and yet the amount of deployed battery storage remains minuscule. The big enabler of renewables isn't batteries but natural gas and more grid interconnects and electricity trading.
90% of the global new electricity generation capacity added in 2020 was renewables. They're not winning because of hippies and the like – they're winning because they're so cheap. Once things become cheap enough (wind turbines and PV panels are about one tenth the price they were 10 years ago and this price decline is continuing) – it's amazing how engineering can work around limitations. Wind turbines are now so cheap, you can build 3 times the capacity of coal and simply use derating – idling the turbines – when wholesale prices are low with little effect on investment return – as turbine life span is a function of the work they do, not their age.
Comment by derriz — June 30, 2021 @ 11:28 am
Glencore has read the Energy Information Administration's outlook for energy demand to 2050 and this is what is projects for coal:
"Coal use is projected to decline until the 2030s as regions replace coal with natural gas and renewables in electricity generation as a result of both cost and policy drivers. In the 2040s, coal use increases as a
result of increased industrial usage and rising use in electric power generation in non-OECD Asia excluding China."
Whether, given the huge build in coal powered electricity generation in parts of the world is a moot point, but it definitely not expected to shrink by 2050 if you look at the graph. It's percentage contribution will fall, maybe, but in volume terms, nah. Coal demand will be just as strong in 2050, even higher, than in 2021. I also noted an interesting article about just how coal intensive cement making is. I'd no idea. And renewable infrastructure such as wind farms require huge quantities of cement, not to mention steel and other energy intensive materials.
Coal dead? Well maybe in those jurisdictions which ban it. But elsewhere, no. Will Australia ban coal exports? Well, that is proving politically difficult so far. If anything, the country wants to ramp up output to meet current surging demand.
Hence, Glencore's bargain buying strategy where it can simply ignore or get around climate change led finance and the rest is smart. For commentators such as the FT's John Dizard, the follies of energy policy provide ample opportunity to make a mint.
Comment by Peter Moles — June 30, 2021 @ 11:38 am
Long HNRG
Comment by Joe Walker — June 30, 2021 @ 8:07 pm
Maybe Glencore is also betting on CCS and the hydrogen economy saving their asses, along with much of the oil & coal industry?
@derriz. Much good work is also being done in the field of electrofuels, another potentially game changing string to the renewables bow. No need for derating or curtailment when this is rolled out.
PS I'd have thought Pat would have chipped in on this, his most favourite of pet subjects. Maybe the most definitely not anthropogenically-induced heatwave in NorCal and beyond has melted his tinfoil helmet?
Comment by David Mercer — July 1, 2021 @ 3:13 am
What trade journals (or information sources) does everybody read to know what is really going on with energy?
90% of what is written about energy on the web is flat our wrong.
Comment by Tom Henderson — July 1, 2021 @ 8:15 am
@3 derriz — "The big enabler of renewables isn't batteries but natural gas…"
And so what's cheaper — solar/wind plus the necessary 24/7 spinning natural gas back-up, or a natural gas plant alone supplying power 24/7? Think hard, now.
@6 David Mercer Electrofuels: "Electrofuels bypass photosynthesis altogether by utilizing microorganisms that are self-reliant and don't need solar energy to grow or produce biofuels. These microorganisms can directly use energy from electricity and chemical compounds like hydrogen to produce liquid fuels from carbon dioxide (CO2). (my bold)"
So says ARPA: https://www.arpa-e.energy.gov/technologies/programs/electrofuels
I can forgive you for knowing nothing of the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics. But those guys? Never.
Where do you think the electricity and hydrogen come from, David? Take a wild guess.
God, it's incredible. And you accuse me of wearing a tinfoil helmet. Too fucking funny.
Comment by Pat Frank — July 1, 2021 @ 11:03 am
@Pat You do know a quick, half-assed Google search doesn't make you an expert all of sudden, right? Why don't you widen your search to include the likes of solar fuels, P2X, artificial photosynthesis, DAC etc and see the depth and breadth of research underway across the globe. A whole world of possibilities which you apparently are unaware of – astonishing, given your background (although I guess your helmet's integral blinkers don't permit you much of a sideview).
Comment by David Mercer — July 1, 2021 @ 1:29 pm
@9 David — they all require energy to make fuels, David.
Entropy requires that the energy out is always less than the energy in. QED for your side, where "D" in your case also means disaster.
These people are all subsidy farmers. None of their "solutions" are economically sound as stand-alone.
Unless you want to struggle in an impoverished economy, which I doubt. Like your masters, you likely want to live in comfort while your inferiors (the robotniki, remember?) live in soul-saving poverty. Their poverty, your soul-salvation. Admirable ethics, that.
Answer the question, David. Where do the hydrogen and electricity come from?
Suppose you wanted to use photosynthesis to produce the 123 billion gallons of gasoline (petrol, to you) that Americans use per year. The US hasn't the land area to get that from bio-fuel farms.
So, how many gazillion square miles of the south Pacific would you have to cover with engineered algae to get that yield? How will you collect and transport the crude product? What happens to marine ecology if the sea surface is covered with bio-fuel algae?
Put on the tinfoil helmet you know so much about, David. Maybe space-aliens are broadcasting the solution right now!
And the frosting on the idiocy is that it's all for nothing!
Comment by Pat Frank — July 1, 2021 @ 2:32 pm
@Pat: If you'd bothered to check you'd have realised that the systems and technologies I'm referring too are primarily inorganic in nature (e.g. many and varied photochemical systems, amongst others). Algal biofuels are something else completely. A schoolboy error.
As for the technology you referred to and your daft question, well duh!, I guess the hydrogen comes from that well known and rather abundant source, water, and electricity from otherwise curtailed renewables, which is kind of the point. These techs offer another form of storage, above and beyond batteries or whatever, but instead providing high utility, "drop-in" synthetic chemical fuels. Its really not that hard a concept to grasp, even for a molecular chemist or whatever.
You really ought to get up to speed on this stuff – it must be one of the hottest areas of research (along with batteries). Lots of opportunities and luvverly funding, who knows, maybe even a Nobel Prize for whoever cracks it…
@Pat Frank.
Renewables are cheaper even when they require support in the form of NG peaker plants and grid interconnects. And of course thermal plants also require redundancy and backup for scheduled maintenance, refurb, etc. and unsheduled downtime. If you watch any electricity market, you'd be surprised how much down time thermal electricity plants experience.
The calculation ("value" or LACE divided by LCOE) that proves this is too convoluted to get into here. LCOE is fairly trivial to calculate or model but the LACE component is highly dependent on local conditions – requiring data like like the current generation mix, the state of the grid, the availability of storage and a model of spot wholesale prices.
Easiest to just accept what the markets are saying. And here the message is clear; 90% of the global electricity generation capacity added last year was renewables and it looks like it's going to continue like this for quite a few years. It's happening everywhere – from Texas to Sweden, the oil states of the ME to China. This won't continue indefinitely – as the intermittent renewables share increase, LACE falls making further renewables less economic but this isn't an issue until you get to 60%+ renewables.
It reminds me somewhat of the scoffing articles of how limited micro-computers were compared to mainframes from the 70s and 80s. In fact they were 100% right – micros were a joke and couldn't scratch the capabilities of big iron at the time. The authors' blind spot was the most fundament feature – price. It's amazing how technical limitations become irrelevant once price drops low enough.
That price drop has happened for onshore wind and solar. The inflection point occurred about 3 or 4 years ago. And the price drops are continuing – 5% a year for wind turbines, 10% for solar PV panels. I'm particularly bullish on solar, given we're talking about silicon based electronics – a tech with 70 years of history of continual price declines. Electrical energy isn't currently cheap to store but if renewables make it so cheap to generate, it doesn't really matter that much.
Comment by derriz — July 1, 2021 @ 4:41 pm
@11 David any inorganic artificial photosynthesis used for national power will require an enormous surface area for exposure to the sun. It solves no problem for you. The south Pacific provides the only space large enough.
Here is Stanford's current diagnosis of the state of the art: "While current artificial photosynthesis methods are far less efficient than the natural process, there has been continual progress in the field."
No inorganic system has left the lab.
Engineered algae are under development, are more efficient than inorganic systems and are likely to remain so for the foreseeable future, and aren't so school boy after all, are they.
Electricity from intermittent unreliable wind and solar is it? And hydrogen from water splitting that remains highly inefficient (~10% efficiency) even after 40 years of research? Suppose you test life at that level for us and report back. If you survive. None of which solves your conflict with entropy.
@12 derriz, "Renewables are cheaper even when they require support in the form of NG peaker plants and grid interconnects. … It reminds me somewhat of the scoffing articles …"
And on it goes, all unsourced. I'll stop scoffing, derriz, when your renewables deliver 24/7/365 power cheaply and unsubsidized. Until then, it's all just blah, blah, blah.
And here's a prediction: it'll remain blah, blah, blah, and if your renewables (sic) are forced into large-scale installation they will produce a train wreck.
@Pat Frank,
I'm not sure what sources you want me to provide?
You're surely not contesting the fact that the renewables share of global new generation capacity was over 80% in 2020? That the trend is almost a straight line up starting in 2000 (15%)?
Or that this aggregate decision making process, across countries, cultures, political outlooks (Texas – the early adapter of renewables?), climates, geographies, etc. indicates that a massive shift in purchasing preferences in favour of wind and solar has occurred and is getting more pronounced?
Or that countries have managed to incorporate significant amounts of intermittent generation capacity into their grids without producing "train wrecks"?
Or that PV panel prices and wind turbine prices have dropped by 90% and 80% respectively in the last decade?
These are simple facts that are so easy to source (a few seconds of googling), I'm not sure why you want me to provide links.
And you dismiss my unsourced claims but your contribution is a completely unsourced and unfalsiable prediction. Why make a prediction when there are numerous countries which could be used to provide the empirical evidence of what happens wholesale prices and grid reliability when you add considerable intermittent sources? Luckily this is a very data rich area so if you're "impending train wreck" theory had any validity, you should have no problem showing any evidence for it.
But if you want to stick to your prediction and ignore existing empirical evidence, I suggest we set up a "long bet" on one of those escrow prediction websites. My prediction would be something along the lines that in 10 years time, the developed world will derive more than 50% of its electricity from renewable sources (solar, wind or hydro) and that inflation adjusted average wholesale electricity prices (ex. tax) will be no higher than they are today and that there will be no increase in load shedding incidents. A couple of thousand bucks?
On the other hand you could look at actual data and what has happened to grids when this tech has been deployed at scale. And update your beliefs based on empirical evidence. That's what I did and why I'm now no longer a renewables skeptic.
@David Mercer, I'm actually pretty bearish on electofuels – they fill a niche where energy density is critical which is more or less just aviation at this stage. Outside of that I don't see a big win. They offer something to help with the storage problem but are very inefficient in that role and really there's nothing particularly simple about storing and transporting "green" hydrogen for example. I believe hydrogen vehicles are a technological cul-de-sac.
Meanwhile the energy density, charge time and price of batteries continue to move in the right direction – albeit in fits and starts wrt energy density and charge time – while there's been 95% drop in price for grid scale li-ion in a decade. In all other regards, electricity is superior – a direct connection to every home in the developed world, energy transportation literally at the speed of light and you can use the energy without air intakes and exhausts, it's usable for everything that demands energy from phones to cars to domestic heating/cooling, etc.
Electrofuels can't hurt of course but I don't see their development as a necessary condition for the rising domination of renewable/intermittents in electricity generation.
I think what will happen is much simpler and more boring. Basically just more of the same – a massive expansion of PV solar and wind, more grid interconnects and some grid mergers, most coal and nuclear replaced/displaced by natural gas. A bit more grid-scale battery but mainly for stabilization and intra-day stuff instead of long term storage.
You mention derating as if it were a bad thing somehow? If I finance the construction of a 1MW capacity wind turbine, I expect to extract roughly 80GWh from it over its lifetime – this number is largely independent of how frequently it's in operation. There is enough variability in wholesale electricity prices, that I can make a better return by deciding to stretch out its life by turning it off when prices are low without the present value calculation killing the value of these future profits. This is a win for me (energy investor – better RoI) and a win for the grid (reducing the mismatch between supply and demand).
If wind turbine and PV panels continue to drop in price at even half the rate they've fallen in the last decade, the battle is over – conventional thermal generation (whether fossil fuel or electrofuel) will become a tiny niche – given the choice of 15GW of wind versus 1GW of coal for the same investment, who is going to pick coal? The intermittency problem will just become irrelevant at these prices.
I got a big surprise when I read that where I live, last year more than 40% of electricity consumed in 2020 came from renewables. I assumed without grid-scale batteries this would be impossible. And this is in a country with no real environmental credentials or political movement and occurred after liberalisation of the generation markets.
The ironic thing is that this is happening because of: the liberalization of electricity markets, private investment, wholesale electricity auctions, technological advances and falling prices. As a free-marketeer I'm loving it. I think the prof. should also love it but unfortunately hating renewables has become part of an ideology/political identity in the US, it seems.
Comment by derriz — July 2, 2021 @ 2:58 am
@derriz: my comment was aimed more at curtailment than derating, TBH. Why simply dump the output when there's no demand? Makes sense to try and do something useful with it (much discussion about demand incentives too).
As for electrofuels, there is much to do and much being done. The Stanford review Pat linked actually paints quite an upbeat picture IMO. Shame he feels so ideologically hidebound not to admit this and allied fields of research could be useful.
As you noted, the one sector which is betting big on electrofuels is aviation, as an eventual successor to the various SAF initiatives underway. United recently made an announcement on their ambitions.
Your comment about adding generation capacity to overcome the storage issue was also made at a lecture I attended in Oxford (who have bet heavily on the next generation of PV – they still haven't sold anything in quantity though – those cheeky Chinese just keep making stuff better and cheaper..).
@David Mercer
Regarding derating: since liberalization, most developed-world grids hold multiple auctions during the day where suppliers bid for capacity on the basis of price. It seems counter-intuitive to just "dump" the "free wind energy" but actually the it's more stopping generation completely, which extends the life of the turbine. If I'm a private investor in a wind farm and I have the option of selling the output in a low demand period for $3/MWh, or stopping generation entirely, which avoids aging my turbines, and waiting to bid for a period when I can earn $15/MWh then I'll chose the latter assuming the cost of my capital isn't so high that waiting 35 years to collect all my income instead of 25 years is going to kill my RoI. It's a peculiarity of wind turbines – the same reasoning doesn't apply with PV panels as far as I know.
Comment by derriz — July 2, 2021 @ 10:33 am
@14 derriz, all the "renewables" installations you tout are subsidized by diverting tax monies from the productive economy. If the trend continues, the economy will become ever less productive and the tax money will eventually run out.
All your costs of energy (LCOE, LACE and whatever else you like) rely on the expense of materials delivered by a fossil-fuel economy. An honest accounting is cost of energy using materials delivered by a wind-and-solar energy economy. Good luck with that.
None of your pricings include an estimate of the ecological cost of the gigantic footprint imposed by your wind and solar installations, were they to supply 100% of energy.
All of your proposed solutions rely on low-density energy sources. They'll never be as efficient as fossil fuels. Your economics are built on a fantasy narrative.
And, as there is no evidence whatever that CO2 emissions are impacting the climate, the entire 'renewables' effort is pointless. More than pointless — an enormous waste of money and resources.
@15 David, you clearly do not understand the difference between experimental lab work and even an engineering model. I can't tell you how many reports I've read of a 'promising laboratory breakthrough,' that ends up going nowhere. Pie-in-the-sky wide-eyed golly-gee will not warm homes or put bread on the table.
Your "cheeky Chinese" employ slave labor. Does that figure into your appraisal?
Uh oh. When faith runs into reality. Everything is fine until peak demand… or those pesky fires in CA.
https://www.newsweek.com/california-facing-power-crisis-frets-over-electric-car-charging-routines-1602755
What is a good Tesla owner to do? How do you amortize the purchase subsidy?
Comment by Vlad — July 2, 2021 @ 11:25 pm
@Pat – you sound like the naysayers back in the day who said catalytic converters would never work on automobiles, said it could never be done, that they were unnecessary, that air quality was "just fine" blah blah. Yet here we are. And countless other developments ever since which have come to the fore, presumably miraculously to you. Honestly, you should have more faith in your profession and colleagues. PS I know all about the commercialization of lab tech.
And you took the China bait! Quel surprise. The fact they have just so happen to have cornered the market in PV is at the heart of your opposition to this technology. It has nothing to do with the technology itself, and all to do with whose ball it is.
I wouldn't worry yourself too much about the tax Dollars running out. Successive administrations of both colours seem to have no problem adding to their supply to bail out banks, fight madly expensive and unnecessary wars, stop an economy from tanking as the result of a virus etc (not to mention propping up or seed funding all manner of industries). A few tens of billion for renewables is neither here nor there.
@Pat Frank
I've written nothing that suggests I care anything about dead birds, atmospheric CO2, electric vehicles or rare grass species suffering under the shadows of PV panels.
My contention is simple – coal is dead for electricity generation given that natural gas capacity is half the price, much more flexible and far more reliable. And that wind turbines and solar PV panels are NOW so cheap that they are displacing conventional thermal generation facilities. And this process is happening because of prices and competition and not hippy activism or misplaced government intervention. And this process will not result in higher wholesale prices or less reliable grids.
A grid electrical engineer told me recently that as far as he was concerned all sources of electricity are intermittent – they are just intermittent in different ways. A US coal plant on average experiences 1 hour downtime for every 6 hours of operation – most of it unscheduled. So to accommodate 1GW peak demand, 1GW of coal generation capacity is not enough, you also need to dedicate idling backup generation capacity unless you want guaranteed blackouts. Grid engineers have been dealing with this sort of intermittency forever – the same tools used to handle unscheduled thermal plant failure are used to handle the intermittent nature of solar and wind – specifically idling back-up (gas) plants, grid interconnections and hydro-storage. Thermal plant failure is almost purely random and in some way is more difficult to plan for – at least Solar is highly seasonal at different timescales, and wind is predictable up to the scale of weeks – so that you know well in advance that you're screwed.
@19 David, "you sound like the naysayers…"
Remember cold fusion, David? Sometimes naysayers are correct.
You still have the problem of gigantic installation footprint and low energy density. Nothing, no technological improvement in efficiency, will change those realities. It's a losing cause.
"The fact they have just so happen to have cornered the market in PV is at the heart of your opposition to this technology."
No, it's not. The technology itself is fine. The heart of my opposition is the destruction of reliable energy, the theft of tax monies, the willful depauperation of the middle class and poor, and the corruption of science and politics. None of which seems to bother you.
Including, apparently, Chinese slave labor.
Of course, the UK's Muslim rape gangs don't bother you either. Another example of the 'skin-determines-culpability' ethics of the left, apparently.
"It has nothing to do with the technology itself,…"
Yes, it does. The problem is the wholesale impositional misapplication of it.
What do you know about commercialization of lab tech?
Your litany of foolish expenses were paid by an energy-rich economy, David. With your 'renewables,' even that will be removed.
And it's all for nothing.
@20 derriz A little research …
Hidden costs of 'renewables:' Operating ratio and cost of coal power generation
Page 36, "Mills (2011) noted the growing capacity of renewable energy plants around the world and the effects of their intermittent and highly variable output on the operation of coal-fired plants. In the absence of sufficient large-scale electricity storage capability, coal (and gas) fired units … are required to deliver greatly varying output to enable the grid system to meet demand at all times. Henderson (2014) found that flexible operation adds thermal and mechanical fatigue stresses to the creep damage that occurs anyway with time in the pressure parts of a pulverised-coal-fired power plant. (my bold)"
Page 42, "According to EPRI (2016), operating in these [ramping and load-following] modes can cause damage and incur costs, as such cycling duty can accelerate thermal fatigue, thermal expansion, fireside corrosion, and rotor bore cracking. Cycling units not designed for such operating modes can lead to more component failures, unplanned outages, increased heat rate, decreased revenue, and staff scheduling and training challenges. (my bold)"
Page 46, "Operating a plant below its rated capacity typically reduces the efficiency of the entire process which is expressed by the part load efficiency. The decrease in efficiency increases the fuel usage and as such generation costs. "
According to Power magazine, the efficiency of coal-fired power plants is being negatively impacted by their use in load-following — that is, ramping up and down to meed the sudden shortfalls and spikes of wind and solar.
Page 48: subsidies
Table 6 Share of federal energy subsidies for the different electricity sources in the USA, 2013 (Yonk, 2016)
Electricity_source___Subsidies_%____Generation_%___Subsidy Normalized to % Generation
Coal________________6______________39__________________1
Natural gas__________4______________28__________________0.9
Nuclear____________10_____________19.4_________________3.4
Solar______________27______________0.4_______________438.8
Wind______________37_____________4.1_________________56.7
Other*____________16______________9__________________11.6
Total_____________100____________100
*includes renewable and non-renewable sources
New Coal-Fired Power Plant Performance and Cost Estimates (pdf)
New supercritical coal fired plant: rated at 7880 full load hours per year. Equates to 10% downtime for maintenance and repair.
Let's summarize: wind and solar are intermittent and unreliable. They require 24/7 spinning mostly-coal fossil fuel load-following back-up.
Power ramping decreases the efficiency of fossil-fuel plants increasing the CO2 and fly-ash (coal) per BTU generated.
Load-following operation causes increased wear to fossil fuel plants, increasing operating expense, decreasing life-time, and increasing unscheduled downtime.
Solar and wind are enormously subsidized; likely accounting for their entire profit-margin. Let's see, that would be misplaced government intervention, wouldn't it.
Bottom line: renewables (so-called) are parasitic.
Also, let's not forget, it's all for nothing.
Speaking – far from dispassionately and even further from impartially – as a Glencore shareholder, I ain't complaining.
Ivan's timing hasn't always been perfect but he's a very shrewd fellow. I voted with my modest pile of pounds (and pence).
See, Prof and y'all, I ain't so simple after all 🙂
Comment by Simple Simon — July 4, 2021 @ 10:08 am
@Pat. Wow, a whole 2 citations, one of which doesn't seem totally relevant. Big league or what? Sounds to me like this went down like the proverbial fart in a spacesuit. Gotta love Francess Thomas's comment: "Then from that day, our relationship was stronger than as it were before, by the help of a spell caster. He also cures Herpes." LMAO. You must be so proud.
All for nothing indeed.
Comment by David Mercer — July 4, 2021 @ 10:32 am
@25 David — three citations, all relevant, their sum demonstrating your factual vacuity.
And your reply: argument from the sneer. Your standard fall-back when all else fails.
This just in from Reuters.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-08/coal-output-in-u-s-seen-rising-most-since-1990-on-global-demand
Seems Glencore got their timing perfect 🙂
Comment by Peter Moles — July 9, 2021 @ 2:41 am


What do you really need to know from Thursday's big growth figures? Boiling it down, three things. First, a 0.5% advance between July and September shows the economy was far from falling off a cliff in the post-referendum period. So far, so good.
Second, don't expect an early Christmas present from the Bank of England next week in the form of an interest rate cut.
Policymakers were split in August over the need for more money printing, and the brighter news since then has hardened the hawks' case.
The UK has slowed, but certainly not flatlined as the Bank predicted in August; on the other side of the coin, its inflation headaches have become a little more painful thanks to a sharper fall in the pound than it reckoned on. Financial markets now believe there's virtually no chance of a cut next Thursday.
Finally; if the UK is an engine, it is firing, as ever, on the single cylinder of its services industry, up 0.8% in the quarter. Construction and manufacturing are sinking, leaving the UK's dominant services sector shouldering the burden, Atlas-like, until exports revive.
But frankly the first official estimate of GDP is always more handy as a political baseball bat than an economic event, particularly when it's put together with half the necessary data. Brexiteers will make merry, using the number to beat their vanquished Remoaner foes, and jeer again at the doom-mongers in Threadneedle Street.
But more relevant is what this number doesn't tell you, which is where we're heading. Declaring any kind of victory based on these numbers is as pointless (and dangerous) as steering a car using the rear-view mirror. That's why the Bank of England places more emphasis on up-to-date surveys to set policy.
For example, Thursday's figures tell you nothing about the most immediate threat facing the post-Brexit UK economy, which is falling business investment.
We'll have to wait another month for the first indications of that in official data. Warning signs are already there. The CBI's industrial trends survey got a lot less attention than the GDP figures but it's one of the oldest, dating back almost 40 years. Firms are marginally more bullish on spending intentions, but far below the extent seen before the Brexit vote.
October's survey shows as many manufacturers are planning to cut spending on heavy equipment as those planning to increase it.
As for the boom in exports coming to the rescue, don't forget that many rely on imported raw materials to make stuff. The CBI's supplementary question for exporting manufacturers on the net impact of sterling's fall was intriguing; of more than 200 firms who replied, 47% said it was negative and just 32% a positive.
This isn't great news for growth, even if consumer spending appears to be holding up.
For my money, the statistic the man in the street will take more notice of than Thursday's GDP is the one in foot-high letters outside every petrol station. Government average petrol prices figures this week show more than 4p extra a litre on petrol since the beginning of September and rising oil prices and the weak pound deliver a double-whammy. Fuel is the canary in the coalmine of an inflation mini-revival likely to reach its peak a year ahead. Rising petrol prices, an essential cost, are a tax on consumption.
And elsewhere the recent sell-off in government debt has pushed up the cost of the two-year swaps, off which fixed mortgages are priced. That's another unavoidable cost creeping up.
It's adding up to a mild case of "stagflation"; slowing growth and rising inflation, which promises a tricky spell for the first half of next year.
It won't be as bad as 2008, which saw inflation above 5% and a sharp recession, but still a cold shower for the consumers our economy relies so much on. All the more reason, then, for the Bank to leave one final shot in its locker on rates until the new year.


text:
Home » Health Policy » The Essential Scan: Top Findings in Health Policy Research | Edition 41
The Essential Scan: Top Findings in Health Policy Research | Edition 41
By Abigail Durak
What's the latest in health policy research? The Essential Scan, produced by the Schaeffer Initiative for Health Policy, aims to help keep you informed on the latest research and what it means for policymakers.
By: Abigail Durak, Stephanie Hedt, Will Palmisano and Paul Ginsburg
Drug Innovation in the Last Decade Increased Productivity by 4.8 Million Work Days, Resulting in $221 Billion in Annual Wages
Study by: Alice J. Chen and Dana P. Goldman
Although productivity losses resulting from poor health create significant drag on the US economy, increases to labor productivity are not traditionally measured when evaluating the costs and benefits of new health technologies. A new study systematically analyzes the relationship between new drug treatments and labor productivity across several disease groups. The researchers examined more than 5000 clinical trials in a 15-year period, finding only 115 (2 percent) evaluated treatment effects on labor productivity. Of the studies with data, they found the largest gains were among infectious diseases (average 42.6 percent gain) and skin diseases (average 82.4 percent gain). Over time, new treatments generated a 30 percent increase in work productivity on average, and subsequent innovations maintained this level of improvement. The authors note that labor sector benefits should be taken into account when assessing the costs and benefits of drug innovation. Full study here.
Fear of Deportation Keeps Eligible Hispanics from Enrolling in Safety-Net Programs
Study By: Marcella Alsan and Crystal Yang
Despite their proven ability to relieve some of the most urgent financial pressures associated with poverty in America, many US citizens eligible for safety-net programs like Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), Medicaid, and Medicare fail to enroll. While barriers like transaction costs, lack of information, and social stigma make full enrollment in these programs unlikely, these factors do not fully explain why there is a sizable gap between the enrollment rates of Hispanics and the enrollment rates of African-Americans and non-Hispanic whites. By combining micro-data on immigrants detained under the Secure Communities (SC) program from 2008-2013 with data on take-up rates for SNAP and ACA signups, the authors show that fear of possibly revealing individuals in their social or familial network living in the country illegally has kept many eligible citizens from enrolling in safety-net programs. The authors find the activation of SC protocols within a community decreased the Hispanic take-up rate for SNAP benefits in that community by 22 to 34 percent and also lowered the number of Hispanics signing up for the ACA by 22 percent. Foregoing these benefits means that some Hispanic citizens may have to go without basic necessities like food or medical care, which could have long-term adverse effects on the health and financial wellbeing of vulnerable members of Hispanic communities. Full study here.
Patients Treated at Academic Medical Centers Had Lower 30-Day Mortality Rates, Regardless of Patient Severity
By: Laura Burke, Dhruv Khullar, E. John Orav, Jie Zheng, Austin Frakt, and Ashish K. Jha
In an effort to cut costs, some policymakers have suggested reserving academic medical centers (AMCs) solely for the treatment of patients with complex or difficult-to-treat conditions. In order to determine which types of patients were most likely to benefit from care at an AMC, a new study compared thirty-day mortality rates for Medicare beneficiaries following hospitalization in both AMCs and non-teaching hospitals. The study found that treatment at an AMC was associated with lower thirty-day mortality rates, compared to treatment at non-teaching hospitals across the spectrum of patient severity for common medical conditions. Similar results were found for surgical procedures (aside from outcomes for low-severity patients which were no different across hospital type). Low-severity patients seemed to benefit the most from AMC care, with 17 percent lower odds of thirty-day mortality when treated at an AMC for a common medical condition as compared to 7 percent lower odds for high-severity patients and 13 percent lower odds for medium-severity patients. Variations in hospital technology accounted for some of these differences, but not all of them. The authors conclude that the better outcomes at AMCs apply to all patients treated – not only the sickest – and suggest that policymakers come up with a different approach to identify patients unlikely to benefit from AMC care. Full study here.
A Review of the Economic Literature of the Pharmaceutical Industry
Study by: Darius N. Lakdawalla
A new literature review summarizes and critically assesses the research on decision problems faced by pharmaceutical firms, with particular emphasis on their relationship and implications for public policy. The researcher focuses on three important decision areas faced by pharmaceutical firms: research and development, pricing, and marketing. Within R&D, the majority of studies analyzed provided evidence suggesting that raising reimbursements for pharmaceuticals stimulates innovation, though economists have not come to a clear answer as to whether pharmaceutical innovation is too high or too low and thus what measures policymakers should take given the associated risks of either under- or over- investing. When assessing pricing strategies, making new, effective drugs accessible to consumers is critical to a firm's strategy. The literature gives definitive evidence that providing health insurance makes drugs more affordable to consumers, and thus increases access and use. In terms of paying for drugs, the researcher notes, "the model of quantity-based pricing appears creaky and out of date, but regulatory barriers in the US market stand in the way of rapid innovation in pricing." Finally, public policy surrounding pharmaceutical marketing is strongly debated. Analysis of the benefits and costs of marketing must take into account whether marketing moves society towards both efficient levels of utilization and efficient levels of innovation. The dynamic and complex nature of both of how marketing impacts use (and access) and thereby influences future innovation leads the author to conclude that much remains unknown about the optimal configuration of policies and regulations towards advertising. The author notes that though major gaps and challenges remain in the research, economists also need to contend with the challenge of convincing non-economists, who remain skeptical about the relative importance of economic incentives, especially as we grapple with major policy challenges of pharmaceuticals. Full study here.
Tags: Schaeffer Initiative, The Essential Scan
By Abigail Durak on June 21, 2018
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My interest for wine began in Austria and Vienna. I got a job as demi chef de rang in an Italian restaurant- Restaurant Collio- in a designer hotel – Hotel Das Triest. To do a good job I had to learn everything on the menu and of course the wines and the wine grapes, which had difficult names and were all local, and some Italians of course.
My mentor was my head waiter, Michael Seiwald. He taught me a lot about Austrian wines.
I think a Sommelier should be percipient towards the guests, and try to find out what the guests are looking for. We are the people with knowledge but also a person that can guide the guests through the wine list. Not to forget that all guests are different.
Education and work hard against an aim.
As a general rule, ask not more than three questions, that will lead you to what the guest wants. The first question e.g. would be if the wine should be white or red.
Glasses are definitely important, it shows very well since I started to work with Zalto glasses. It is of course very small differences, but sometimes it is the sharp small details that differs.
That would be to actually pair wine with food. Mostly the sommelier have the knowledge about all the courses, so do not hesitate to ask for a good match.
The concept of the whole restaurant is very important. The kitchen, which food will be served? After that you can do a wine list. It differs a lot if the restaurant is a bistro or a three star Michelin restaurant.
Since I work in Sweden, the only way in is through the monopoly – Systembolaget, or a wine importer that only can sell directly to restaurants. The producers do not know a lot about if the wine importer is good or bad, and that will make a difference. I have seen very good quality producers work with not so committed wine importers.
Riesling. High quality grape, unique on its own, very good both sweet & sour (acid)!


text:
October 2009 Mark Teixeira New York Yankees Bright Light in the Big City
They don't call it the Evil Empire for nothing. You either love 'em, or you hate 'em.
For nearly a century, the New York Yankees have been establishing their status as the dominant franchise in Major League Baseball. The club is rich in both tradition and dollars and has a track record of success that makes small-market teams both sigh in exasperation and raise their fists in what is usually described as righteous anger.
Mark Teixeira — #25
Position/Team: 1B/New York Yankees
Born: April 11, 1980, in Annapolis, Md.
Family: Wife, Leigh, and children Jack and Addison
Height/Weight: 6-3/220
Bats/Throws: Switch/Right
College: Georgia Tech
MLB Debut: April 1, 2003
• Two-time MLB All-Star (2005, 2009)
• Two-time Gold Glove Award winner (2005, 2006)
• Two-time Silver Slugger Award winner (2004, 2005)
• Dick Howser Trophy Award winner as the collegiate baseball player of the year (2001)
• Is one of just five players in major league history to hit at least 100 home runs in his first three seasons combined.
• Set MLB record for total RBI in a season by a switch hitter in 2005 (144).
Still, no one can deny that the Yankees back up their bark with a fatal bite. With 26 World Series titles and 39 American League pennants, the Yankees have more championships than any other sports franchise in North America. They've retired the jerseys of some of the game's most legendary players (Ruth, DiMaggio, Mantle) and continue to produce an abundance of all-stars each season.
Among that list is 2009 All-Star Mark Teixeira — a man who seemingly contradicts all those stereotypes. He's humble, friendly, unassuming, down-to-earth and talented.
OK, all the stereotypes but one. The guy can more than handle the pressure to perform for the Pinstripes.
Acquired by the Yankees in January, Teixeira has spent this season making himself at home — a dominant force of his own, even — among a talented group of Bronx Bombers, batting third in the lineup after Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon, and setting up Alex Rodriguez. Through press time, he led the American League in RBI and ranked in the top three in home runs.
Teixeira's journey to New York, however, has been anything but a direct flight into JFK. It's taken him from college in Georgia to the Midwest for the minors, to Texas for the Majors, back to Atlanta, across the country to Los Angeles and then back to the East Coast. But, like any good journeyman, Teixeira hasn't wasted his time on the road. A faithful follower of Jesus Christ, he has used the years and the miles to draw close to the Lord. And now, with the bright lights of the Big Apple illuminating him from baseball's biggest stage, Teixeira is using his position from inside that infamous Evil Empire to shed light on all that is good.
A walking contradiction? Absolutely not.
STV: What would you say has been the defining moment in your faith walk?
MT: You can never completely get it — being a Christian — but I think I really got it when my first son was born in 2006. I just realized the love that God has for all of us. It was seeing my son born and knowing the unconditional love that I have for him.
I also read the book The Shack* recently. That book opened my eyes even more to how much God loves us. It was very powerful, and it changed my life.
STV: To this point, how has your relationship with God impacted your career?
MT: Baseball is a game of failure. There are plenty of opportunities to be down, to feel sorry for yourself or to be upset at somebody. One thing that I've realized is that you're never going to be 100-percent successful. You're always going to be let down. But when you have God in your life and you follow Christ, you're never going to be let down. Every time you fail, He's there to pick you right back up. Every time you think the world is going to end because you had a couple of bad games, God's there to remind you that that's not what it's all about.
3-Minute Drill with Andy Pettitte
Download the corresponding devo curriculum.
STV: Tell us some of the biblical principles that define you.
MT: Our deeds don't make us righteous. Our deeds don't make us worthy to be in God's presence or to be in His Kingdom. God made that decision already. God's righteousness is given to us, and His grace is given to us as a gift. No matter what I do on the baseball field, no matter how hard I try to be a good player, no matter how hard I try to be a good father or a good husband, I can never do enough. In this world, I can never be perfect. But God is there to tell me that it's not what I do; it's whom I believe in, and it's Him loving me. That's very important to me because this game can be tough, and life can be tough.
STV: We talk all the time about the platform pro athletes are on and the amount of attention people pay to their personal lives. With that in mind, do you feel like you have a responsibility to share your faith with others?
MT: I have a huge responsibility. With this platform, I have an opportunity to be a good example. Hopefully people will see me and say, "There's a man who lives for Christ," and, "There's a man who's doing the right thing."
Every day I have a forum — the media, the fans, my teammates — and I have a responsibility to help prepare this world for the coming of Christ. If I can be a good role model and help non-believers, or even believers who need a little help along the way, I want to take that job very seriously.
STV: What is the predominant message that you try to share with young athletes?
MT: That Christ doesn't keep score. It's not about what you do here. It's about the person you are; it's about your faith. That's one thing that I'd like for young kids, or anybody, to know.
"Our deeds don't make us righteous. Our deeds don't make us worthy to be in God's presence or to be in His Kingdom. God made that decision already."
We can't be perfect all the time, and that's OK. In the heat of the battle, in the heat of the moment, you might say things or do things that aren't right, but, at the same time, Christ forgives us. Christ will always forgive you. I hope people realize that, just because of certain situations or certain things they've done, doesn't mean that that's it. It doesn't mean God has turned His back on us. That's something I love to tell young people or anybody, really, no matter what their situation. Christ is always there for us.
STV: How important is prayer in your daily life?
MT: Every time I pray, I ask for forgiveness. I'm a sinner, and I miss the mark every single day. But I do know that God loves me; I do know that God forgives me. It helps me in my everyday life because it reminds me that there's nothing anyone can do to me that I can't, in turn, forgive them for.
Teixeira often takes part in community outreach events such as the Yankees' 2009 HOPE Week, which focused on "Helping Others Persevere & Excel."
STV: How does that understanding of God's forgiveness impact the other areas of your life?
MT: God has forgiven everything I've ever done. If someone does something to hurt my family or me, I can always forgive them. It helps to keep hate and anger out of my heart.
STV: As a Christian athlete and a family man, what helps you keep your priorities straight during the hectic season?
MT: I don't play baseball first; I put Christ first in my life. I put my family behind Him, and I put baseball down the line. I obviously want to succeed; I want to perform. But, at the same time, I'm at peace no matter what happens on this earth. The more important part is being a Christian and being in the Kingdom of Heaven when it's all said and done.
STV: What kind of commitment should the Christian athlete have to excellence?
MT: Just because you're a Christian doesn't mean you don't run hard, or you don't play hard or don't want to succeed. What I would tell fans or other players is that I think my relationship with Christ makes me a better player. It allows me to handle situations better, allows me to treat people better, and it allows me to have a better mental attitude toward baseball. When you put too much pressure on yourself, it's harder to play.
STV: At the end of the day, how much of your identity is wrapped up in baseball versus your faith in Christ?
MT: If you are searching for your purpose in life, then you're never going to be satisfied. This life will never satisfy you. You'll never be happy, and you'll never be content. The only real contentment or true happiness is with Christ.
Photos courtesy of the New York Yankees.


I read an article today describing how half of today's 50 year olds would need to work until they are 77 in order to make ends meet.
Viewing work on such a timescale puts an interesting tilt on ones perspectives about work…..
So the question is: if you could only work for 1 more year – what would you do with that time?
How about 5 more years? or 10, or 20 years?
For adulthood, as we continue to age what are the changing shapes of the constraints that are pushed upon us by nature, physiology?
Or our experience, risk perception, society, culture, evolving technological and environmental changes, our own evolving families?
And what to are the other side to that coin – our evolving opportunities, knowledge, experience, potential?


text:
#include <ruby.h>
#include <ffi.h>
#include "ArrayType.h"

static VALUE array_type_s_allocate(VALUE klass);
static VALUE array_type_initialize(VALUE self, VALUE rbComponentType, VALUE rbLength);
static void array_type_mark(ArrayType *);
static void array_type_free(ArrayType *);

VALUE rbffi_ArrayTypeClass = Qnil;

static VALUE
array_type_s_allocate(VALUE klass)
{
    ArrayType* array;
    VALUE obj;

    obj = Data_Make_Struct(klass, ArrayType, array_type_mark, array_type_free, array);

    array->base.nativeType = NATIVE_ARRAY;
    array->base.ffiType = xcalloc(1, sizeof(*array->base.ffiType));
    array->base.ffiType->type = FFI_TYPE_STRUCT;
    array->base.ffiType->size = 0;
    array->base.ffiType->alignment = 0;
    array->rbComponentType = Qnil;

    return obj;
}

static void
array_type_mark(ArrayType *array)
{
    rb_gc_mark(array->rbComponentType);
}

static void
array_type_free(ArrayType *array)
{
    xfree(array->base.ffiType);
    xfree(array->ffiTypes);
    xfree(array);
}

/*
 * call-seq: initialize(component_type, length)
 * @param [Type] component_type
 * @param [Numeric] length
 * @return [self]
 * A new instance of ArrayType.
 */
static VALUE
array_type_initialize(VALUE self, VALUE rbComponentType, VALUE rbLength)
{
    ArrayType* array;
    int i;

    Data_Get_Struct(self, ArrayType, array);

    array->length = NUM2UINT(rbLength);
    array->rbComponentType = rbComponentType;
    Data_Get_Struct(rbComponentType, Type, array->componentType);

    array->ffiTypes = xcalloc(array->length + 1, sizeof(*array->ffiTypes));
    array->base.ffiType->elements = array->ffiTypes;
    array->base.ffiType->size = array->componentType->ffiType->size * array->length;
    array->base.ffiType->alignment = array->componentType->ffiType->alignment;

    for (i = 0; i < array->length; ++i) {
        array->ffiTypes[i] = array->componentType->ffiType;
    }

    return self;
}

/*
 * call-seq: length
 * @return [Numeric]
 * Get array's length
 */
static VALUE
array_type_length(VALUE self)
{
    ArrayType* array;

    Data_Get_Struct(self, ArrayType, array);

    return UINT2NUM(array->length);
}

/*
 * call-seq: element_type
 * @return [Type]
 * Get element type.
 */
static VALUE
array_type_element_type(VALUE self)
{
    ArrayType* array;

    Data_Get_Struct(self, ArrayType, array);

    return array->rbComponentType;
}

void
rbffi_ArrayType_Init(VALUE moduleFFI)
{
    /*
     * Document-class: FFI::ArrayType < FFI::Type
     *
     * This is a typed array. The type is a {NativeType native type}.
     */
    rbffi_ArrayTypeClass = rb_define_class_under(moduleFFI, "ArrayType", rbffi_TypeClass);
    /*
     * Document-variable: FFI::ArrayType
     */
    rb_global_variable(&rbffi_ArrayTypeClass);
    /*
     * Document-constant: FFI::Type::Array
     */
    rb_define_const(rbffi_TypeClass, "Array", rbffi_ArrayTypeClass);

    rb_define_alloc_func(rbffi_ArrayTypeClass, array_type_s_allocate);
    rb_define_method(rbffi_ArrayTypeClass, "initialize", array_type_initialize, 2);
    rb_define_method(rbffi_ArrayTypeClass, "length", array_type_length, 0);
    rb_define_method(rbffi_ArrayTypeClass, "elem_type", array_type_element_type, 0);
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub